Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A. (ASPS) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Altisource Portfolio Solutions second-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

大家好，感謝您撥冗等候。歡迎參加 Altisource Portfolio Solutions 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Michelle Esterman, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給今天的第一位講者，財務長 Michelle Esterman。請開始。

Thank you, Operator. We first want to remind you that the earnings release Form 10-Q and quarterly slides are available on our website at www.altisource.com. Please provide additional information, investors may find useful.

謝謝，接線員。我們首先提醒各位，財報新聞稿、10-Q 表格以及季度簡報已公布於我們的網站 www.altisource.com。請提供投資人可能覺得有用的其他資訊。

Our remarks today include forward-looking statements, which involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. Financial projections and scenarios are expressly qualified as forward looking statements and as with other forward-looking statements should not be unduly relied upon.

我們今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述，涉及多項風險與不確定性，可能導致實際結果有所差異。財務預測與情境分析明確屬於前瞻性陳述，且與其他前瞻性陳述一樣，不應過度依賴。

In addition to the usual uncertainty associated with forward-looking statements, the continuing impacts of government and servicer responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, governmental fiscal policies and current economic conditions make it extremely difficult to predict the future state of the economy and the industries in which we operate, as well as the potential impact on Altisource.

除前瞻性陳述通常伴隨的不確定性外，政府與貸款服務機構對 COVID-19 疫情的持續應對所帶來的影響、政府財政政策及目前經濟狀況，使得預測未來經濟與我們所處產業的狀態，以及對 Altisource 的潛在影響，變得極其困難。

Please review the forward-looking statements sections in the company's earnings release and quarterly slides, as well as the risk factors contained in our 2023 Form 10-K, describing some factors that may lead to different results. We undertake no obligation to update statements, financial scenarios and projections previously provided or provided herein as a result of a change in circumstances, new information or future events.

請查閱公司財報新聞稿與季度簡報中的前瞻性陳述章節，以及我們 2023 年 Form 10-K 中所載的風險因素，當中描述了可能導致結果不同的一些因素。因情況變化、新資訊或未來事件，我們不承擔更新先前提供或於本文提供之陳述、財務情境與預測的義務。

During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. In our earnings release and quarterly slides, you will find additional disclosures regarding the non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in the appendix to the quarterly slides.

在本次電話會議中，我們將同時呈現 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。在我們的財報新聞稿與季度簡報中，您將可找到關於非 GAAP 指標的更多揭露。GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標之調節表收錄於季度簡報的附錄中。

Joining me for today's call is Will Shepro, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Will.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的還有我們的董事長兼執行長 Will Shepro。接下來我把電話交給 Will。

Thanks, Michelle, and good morning. I'll begin on sFlide 4. We had a strong second quarter and believe we are on track to achieve our 2024 guidance of 13% to 32% service revenue growth over 2023 and adjusted EBITDA of between $17.5 million and $22.5 million in 2024.

謝謝，Michelle，大家早安。我將從第 4 頁投影片開始。我們第二季表現強勁，並相信我們正按計畫達成 2024 年指引：相較 2023 年服務營收成長 13% 至 32%，以及 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 介於 1,750 萬至 2,250 萬美元。

For the quarter, we generated $36.9 million in service revenue and $4.4 million of adjusted EBITDA, and modestly increased cash to $29.7 million. We also went live and began to receive referrals from a renovation business customer and three foreclosure trustee customers.

本季我們創造了 3,690 萬美元的服務營收與 440 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，現金也小幅增加至 2,970 萬美元。我們也已上線並開始接收來自一位翻修業務客戶與三位法拍受託人客戶的案件轉介。

Our financial results reflect our strong sales wins, price increases, referral volume growth and lower cost base in what continues to be an incredibly difficult environment of close to historically low mortgage delinquency rates and low origination volume.

我們的財務結果反映了強勁的銷售得標、價格調升、轉介量成長，以及較低的成本基礎；而目前環境仍極為艱困，按揭逾期率接近歷史低點，且房貸承作量偏低。

Service revenue in our Servicer and Real Estate segment grew by 16% compared to the same quarter in 2023 in a market that had approximately 7% fewer foreclosure starts and 13% fewer foreclosure sales. Service revenue in our Origination segment declined by 5% compared to the same quarter in 2023, outperforming the 13% decline in total market mortgage origination volume.

在貸款服務與不動產（Servicer and Real Estate）部門，我們的服務營收較 2023 年同季成長 16%；而該市場的法拍啟動量約少 7%，法拍成交量少 13%。在承作（Origination）部門，我們的服務營收較 2023 年同季下滑 5%，但優於整體市場房貸承作量下滑 13% 的表現。

Slide 5 provides additional information on our total company financial performance. As you can see, the trends are positive. Service revenue was 11% higher, and adjusted EBITDA was $7.9 million better than the second quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA margins improved to 11.9% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to negative 10.5% in the second quarter of 2023.

第 5 頁投影片提供我們全公司財務表現的更多資訊。如您所見，趨勢是正向的。服務營收提高 11%，調整後 EBITDA 較去年第二季改善 790 萬美元。2024 年第二季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率提升至 11.9%，相較 2023 年第二季為負 10.5%。

The improvement in service revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins compared to last year was driven by sales wins, price increases for certain services, stronger default referrals, business segment margin expansion and lower corporate costs.

相較去年，服務營收、調整後 EBITDA 及調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的改善，主要由銷售得標、部分服務的價格調升、更強勁的違約案件轉介、各業務部門利潤率擴張，以及較低的公司層級成本所帶動。

Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins declined modestly compared to the first quarter due to approximately $600,000 of first quarter net nonrecurring benefits comprised of $1.2 million of benefits in the Corporate segment and $600,000 of costs in the Servicer and Real Estate segment.

相較第一季，調整後 EBITDA 與調整後 EBITDA 利潤率小幅下滑，原因是第一季約有 60 萬美元的淨一次性利益，其中包括公司（Corporate）部門 120 萬美元的利益，以及貸款服務與不動產部門 60 萬美元的成本。

Excluding these net nonrecurring first quarter benefits second quarter adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins improved compared to the first quarter. For the third and fourth quarters, we anticipate strong service revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth over 2023 as we ramp sales wins in our more efficient and lower cost base.

若排除第一季上述淨一次性利益，第二季的調整後 EBITDA 與調整後 EBITDA 利潤率較第一季有所改善。對於第三季與第四季，隨著我們在更高效率且更低成本的基礎上逐步放量已得標的業務，我們預期相較 2023 年將有強勁的服務營收與調整後 EBITDA 成長。

Slide 6, provides additional information on our Servicer and Real Estate segment. Second quarter 2024 service revenue in this segment was 16% higher than the second quarter of 2023 and flat to last quarter. We continue to experience growth in certain higher-margin businesses that support the earlier stage of the default process.

第 6 頁投影片提供貸款服務與不動產部門的更多資訊。2024 年第二季該部門服務營收較 2023 年第二季高 16%，與上一季持平。我們持續在某些較高毛利的業務上看到成長，這些業務支援違約流程的較早期階段。

Adjusted EBITDA of $11.1 million was 50% higher than the second quarter of 2023 and 6% higher than the first quarter of this year. Adjusted EBITDA margins were 38.1% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to 29.5% in the second quarter of 2023 and 35.8% last quarter.

調整後 EBITDA 為 1,110 萬美元，較 2023 年第二季高 50%，也較今年第一季高 6%。2024 年第二季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 38.1%，相較 2023 年第二季為 29.5%，上一季為 35.8%。

The improvement compared to the second quarter of last year reflects revenue growth and efficiency initiatives. The improvement compared to the first quarter of this year reflects business unit efficiency initiatives as well as the $600,000 of nonrecurring expenses in the first quarter that I just discussed.

相較去年第二季的改善，反映了營收成長與效率提升措施。相較今年第一季的改善，反映了事業單位的效率提升措施，以及我剛才提到第一季 60 萬美元的一次性費用。

Slide 7, provides a summary of our Servicer and Real Estate sales wins and pipeline. For the quarter, we won new business that we estimate will generate $15.3 million in annual revenue once fully ramped over the next couple of years.

第 7 頁投影片摘要說明我們在貸款服務與不動產部門的銷售得標與商機管線。本季我們贏得的新業務，估計在未來幾年完全放量後，將可帶來每年 1,530 萬美元的營收。

In the second quarter, we signed three agreements to provide foreclosure trustee services. This is in addition to the market share expansion of trustee business with a customer that we won in the first quarter. We completed the onboarding process of these three trustee customers and are ramping referrals. We anticipate that these wins will support service revenue and EBITDA growth.

在第二季，我們簽署了三份協議以提供法拍受託人服務。這是在第一季我們贏得某客戶受託人業務市占擴張的基礎上再增加的成果。我們已完成這三位受託人客戶的導入流程，並正逐步提升轉介量。我們預期這些得標將支持服務營收與 EBITDA 成長。

We also made progress ramping our renovation services for one of the largest owners of REO assets in the US. Since the program went live in late April, we have received over 35 renovation referrals, which we estimate will generate average revenue of close to $100,000 per property. We anticipate referral volume, revenue and earnings from this customer will ramp as the year progresses.

我們也在為美國最大的 REO 資產持有人之一提供翻修服務的放量方面取得進展。自該計畫於 4 月下旬上線以來，我們已收到超過 35 件翻修轉介，我們估計每處物件的平均營收接近 10 萬美元。我們預期隨著年度推進，來自該客戶的轉介量、營收與獲利將逐步放量。

We ended the quarter with a segment weighted average sales pipeline of $20.3 million of annual revenue on a stabilized basis, most of which we forecast will impact 2025 and beyond. The decline in the sales pipeline compared to last quarter primarily reflects the significant sales wins I just discussed and the addition of earlier stage opportunities to the pipeline, which have a lower assigned win probability.

我們在本季末的分部加權平均銷售管線為 2,030 萬美元（以穩定化基礎計算之年化營收），其中大部分我們預期將於 2025 年及之後產生影響。相較於上季，銷售管線的下降主要反映我剛才討論的重大銷售勝利，以及將較早期階段的機會納入管線；這些機會被賦予的贏單機率較低。

Turning to the macroeconomic environment on slide 8. -- As we have discussed in the past, there continues to be early signs of consumer financial stress. Consumer savings has declined, credit card debt is near a record high and early-stage delinquencies are rising. Additionally, home affordability, which is highly correlated to home prices, remains low.

接著看投影片 8 的總體經濟環境。-- 如同我們過去所討論的，消費者財務壓力的早期跡象仍在持續出現。消費者儲蓄已下降，信用卡債務接近歷史新高，且早期逾期率正在上升。此外，與房價高度相關的購屋可負擔性仍然偏低。

Despite the significant increase in interest rates in the last 2 years, we believe home prices remain high largely because the inventory of homes for sale is very low. This appears to be changing. According to the National Association of Realtors the inventory of existing homes for sale in May 2024 was 18.5% higher than May of last year and seasonally adjusted existing home sales were 2.8% lower.

儘管過去兩年利率大幅上升，我們認為房價仍維持高檔，主要是因為待售房屋庫存非常低。這種情況似乎正在改變。根據全國房地產經紀人協會（National Association of Realtors），2024 年 5 月待售成屋庫存較去年 5 月高出 18.5%，而經季節調整後的成屋銷售量則下降 2.8%。

As inventory grows, home prices in certain markets may decline as the supply, demand dynamics normalize. Should this happen, stress consumers that have low down payment mortgages or loans that were originated over the last couple of years may no longer have equity in their homes and will therefore have fewer options to address loan defaults. This could increase foreclosure initiations and drive foreclosure conversion rates to more normal levels.

隨著庫存增加，某些市場的房價可能會隨供需動態正常化而下跌。若發生此情況，首付比例較低的房貸借款人，或過去幾年內承作的貸款之壓力型消費者，可能不再擁有房屋淨值，因此可用以處理貸款違約的選項將更少。這可能會增加法拍啟動案件，並使法拍轉換率回到較正常的水準。

Moving to our Origination segment on slide 9. We are pleased that adjusted EBITDA improved by $1.8 million compared to the second quarter of last year despite a 5% decline in service revenue and a 13% decline in industry wide residential origination volume for the same period.

接著看投影片 9 的我們承作（Origination）分部。我們很高興調整後 EBITDA 較去年第二季改善 180 萬美元，儘管同期服務營收下降 5%，且全產業住宅貸款承作量下降 13%。

Adjusted EBITDA was flat to the first quarter on similar service revenue. Adjusted EBITDA improved over last year from cost savings and efficiency initiatives. As you can see on the slide, the Origination segment's gross profit, gross profit margins, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA margins, all improved relative to prior year.

在服務營收相近的情況下，調整後 EBITDA 與第一季持平。相較去年，調整後 EBITDA 的改善來自成本節省與效率提升措施。如投影片所示，承作分部的毛利、毛利率、調整後 EBITDA 以及調整後 EBITDA 利潤率，皆較前一年提升。

Slide 10, provides a summary of our Origination segment sales wins and pipeline. On an annualized stabilized basis, we won an estimated $1.5 million in new business in the second quarter. Our weighted average sales pipeline at the end of the quarter was $14.7 million.

投影片 10 提供我們承作分部銷售勝利與管線的摘要。以年化穩定化基礎計算，我們在第二季贏得估計 150 萬美元的新業務。本季末的加權平均銷售管線為 1,470 萬美元。

We continue to focus on rolling out new solutions to help our Lenders One members make more money. We believe the regular launch of new solutions to Lenders One members, combined with greater adoption of our existing solutions, will strengthen our value proposition for Lenders One members and support further revenue and earnings growth in our Origination segment.

我們持續專注於推出新解決方案，協助我們的 Lenders One 會員賺取更多收益。我們相信，持續定期向 Lenders One 會員推出新解決方案，並提高既有解決方案的採用率，將強化我們對 Lenders One 會員的價值主張，並支持承作分部進一步的營收與獲利成長。

During the second quarter, we signed agreements with our first homeowners insurance customer and have a pipeline of 35 member prospects. We believe that the homeowners insurance program can improve the loan closing process for our members, and their borrowers and establish an attractive revenue annuity for Altisource as policies are issued, the majority of which we believe will be renewed.

在第二季期間，我們與首位屋主保險客戶簽署協議，並擁有 35 位會員潛在客戶的管線。我們相信，屋主保險方案可改善會員及其借款人的貸款結案流程，並在保單核發後為 Altisource 建立具吸引力的年金式收入；其中多數保單我們認為將會續保。

Turning to our Corporate segment on slide 11. We are maintaining strong cost discipline. Second quarter corporate adjusted EBITDA loss of $7.2 million was $2.4 million or 25% better than the second quarter of 2023 and $900,000 worse than the first quarter of this year.

接著看投影片 11 的企業（Corporate）分部。我們維持嚴格的成本紀律。第二季企業分部調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 720 萬美元，較 2023 年第二季改善 240 萬美元（或 25%），但較今年第一季差 90 萬美元。

The first quarter 2024 results included an estimated $1.2 million of net nonrecurring benefits. Absent these benefits, second quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA loss in corporate modestly improved compared to the first quarter of 2024. The lower adjusted EBITDA loss compared to last year reflects our cost savings and efficiency initiatives.

2024 年第一季的結果包含估計 120 萬美元的淨一次性利益。若排除這些利益，2024 年第二季企業分部的調整後 EBITDA 虧損相較 2024 年第一季小幅改善。相較去年較低的調整後 EBITDA 虧損，反映我們的成本節省與效率提升措施。

Moving to slide 12. In summary, I'm pleased with our second quarter and first half of the year performance and believe we are on track to achieve our 2024 guidance of 13% to 32% service revenue growth over 2023 and adjusted EBITDA between $17.5 million and $22.5 million in 2024.

接著看投影片 12。總結而言，我對我們第二季及上半年表現感到滿意，並相信我們正按計畫達成 2024 年指引：服務營收較 2023 年成長 13% 至 32%，以及 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 介於 1,750 萬至 2,250 萬美元。

We continue to win new business and are making good progress ramping sales wins on a much lower cost base in a historically difficult market. As a result, service revenue for the first six months of this year is $3.5 million or 5% higher than the same period last year, and adjusted EBITDA is $11 million higher despite the decline in foreclosure starts, foreclosure sales, and mortgage origination volume over the same period.

我們持續贏得新業務，並在歷來艱困的市場中，以大幅降低的成本基礎推進銷售勝利的放量，進展良好。因此，今年前六個月的服務營收為 3,500 萬美元，較去年同期增加 350 萬美元（或 5%）；儘管同期法拍啟動、法拍成交以及房貸承作量下滑，調整後 EBITDA 仍增加 1,100 萬美元。

If we achieve the midpoint of our adjusted EBITDA guidance, we will have grown adjusted EBITDA by approximately $52 million over three years. As we ramp new business, we are cautiously optimistic that we will exit the year at a $30 million plus adjusted EBITDA run rate.

若我們達成調整後 EBITDA 指引的中位數，我們將在三年內使調整後 EBITDA 成長約 5,200 萬美元。隨著新業務放量，我們審慎樂觀地認為，今年年底我們的調整後 EBITDA 年化運行率可達 3,000 萬美元以上。

I'll now open up the call for questions. Operator?

接下來我將開放提問。接線員？

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。現在我們將進行問答環節。（接線員指示）

Raj Sharma, B. Riley.

Raj Sharma，B. Riley。

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. If you could talk about how is service revenue growing 16% with fewer foreclosure starts and fewer foreclosure sales? How much of that is price increases? And also, if you could talk about the -- incrementally new revenue from the pre and the early foreclosure process?

嗨。謝謝回答我的問題。你能否談談，在法拍啟動數較少、法拍成交也較少的情況下，服務營收如何仍能成長 16%？其中有多少是來自價格上調？另外，也請談談在法拍前期與早期法拍流程中，新增營收的增量來源？

So, I think a couple of things are taking place in the Servicer and Real Estate segment. Michelle, you could jump in as well. I think one component of it is some price increases in our field services and valuation business, which is contributing to the growth.

我想在 Servicer 與不動產分部有幾件事正在發生。Michelle，你也可以補充。我認為其中一個因素是我們外勤服務與估價業務的一些價格上調，這正在推動成長。

Two, if you remember in the second quarter of last year in California, one of our customers had some holds on foreclosures. Those have been released. And so from a comparability perspective we don't have that issue this year in the second quarter.

第二，如果你記得去年第二季在加州，我們的一位客戶對部分法拍案件有暫停措施。那些限制已解除。因此從可比性角度來看，今年第二季我們沒有這個問題。

Third is we're winning new business, and we're adding on the earlier stage we're adding business to our earlier stage processes, and that includes primarily the foreclosure trustee business, where we've started receiving referrals from three new clients, two of which we think could be meaningful and one still will be it's an exciting new business but more modest.

第三是我們正在贏得新業務，並且在較早期階段把業務加入我們的早期流程；這主要包括法拍受託人（foreclosure trustee）業務，我們已開始接收來自三位新客戶的委託，其中兩位我們認為可能具有重要規模，另一位仍會是令人振奮的新業務，但規模較為溫和。

And then finally, although it's in the early innings, we launched the renovation business in the second quarter. I think it only contributed about $200,000 or so to revenue in the second quarter, but that's ramping very nicely. I think as of a week ago or so, we had received 35 referrals. I think we're now up to north of 40 referrals from this customer. And so that business is ramping nicely and we're very optimistic that can be a very meaningful contributor as we go forward.

最後，雖然目前還在初期階段，我們在第二季推出了翻修業務。我認為第二季它對營收的貢獻大約只有20萬美元左右，但目前爬坡得非常順利。大概在一週前左右，我們已收到35件轉介。我想我們現在已經從這位客戶收到超過40件轉介。因此這項業務正在良好成長，我們也非常樂觀，未來它能成為相當重要的貢獻來源。

Thank you. Thank you for that. And then can you give a sort of an estimate on the margins on the pre and the earlier part of this, the foreclosure process versus your usual servicer business?

謝謝。謝謝你的說明。接著，你能否大概估算一下，在法拍流程的前段與較早期階段，相較於你們一般的貸款服務（servicer）業務，其利潤率大概如何？

Sure. Look, a lot depends on the product, but the trustee business because of our global operations is a very high margin business inside the business unit. I think north of 50% in the title business. That's more probably Michelle, wants in the 30s.

當然可以。你看，這在很大程度上取決於產品，但由於我們的全球營運，受託人（trustee）業務在該事業單位內屬於高毛利業務。我認為在產權（title）業務中毛利率可超過50%。至於那部分可能要問Michelle，大概是在30%多。

Yes.

是的。

The EBITDA margin level, the field services business is typically mid to high teens margin business. And then that also can take place earlier in the process. And so the margins can be reasonably attractive, not necessarily as attractive as the margins inside of Hubzu at the very end of the process, but they're still pretty strong. .

以EBITDA利潤率水準來看，現場服務（field services）業務通常是中到高十幾%的利潤率。而且這也可能發生在流程較早期。因此其利潤率可以相當有吸引力，未必像在流程末端Hubzu內部的利潤率那麼高，但仍然相當不錯。.

That's very helpful. And then I wanted to understand your confidence level on how confident are you in the pre and the earlier foreclosure process to continue through this year and next? Is this a structural new addition to the revenue base? Or is it sort of, -- until the actual foreclosures pick up?

這非常有幫助。另外我想了解，你們對於法拍流程前段與較早期階段在今年及明年能否延續的信心程度如何？這會是營收基礎上的結構性新增嗎？還是只是——直到實際法拍量開始回升為止？

So Raj, I think if you look at the reporting that comes from ICE or Black Knight, delinquency rates are still low, very low, both 90-plus and early-stage delinquencies. Early-stage delinquencies did tick up in the second quarter, but it's unclear if that was just a timing question as to what day was the last day of the month. So they did tick up. We'll see if it's a trend or not.

Raj，我認為如果你看ICE或Black Knight的報告，逾期率仍然很低、非常低，無論是90天以上逾期或早期逾期。早期逾期在第二季確實小幅上升，但不清楚那是否只是時間點問題，例如月底最後一天落在哪一天。所以確實有上升。我們會再觀察這是否形成趨勢。

But generally speaking, delinquency rates remain very low. And so we want to focus on the earlier stage processes just because foreclosure initiations, while they're still down almost 30% from where they were pre-pandemic, they're up quite a bit from during the pandemic. And so that's an area we want to continue to focus on and work to grab market share.

但整體而言，逾期率仍然非常低。因此我們想把重點放在較早期的流程，因為法拍啟動量雖然仍比疫情前低了將近30%，但相較疫情期間已經回升不少。所以這是我們希望持續聚焦並努力爭取市占的領域。

And then we're also expanding some work we're doing in the foreclosure trustee business with an existing customer. We added, I think, six new states with them, and we've also started providing services on the reverse mortgage portfolio in the trustee space. So we think that represents some growth for us. But all in all I think the delinquency market has been fairly muted. That may change.

此外，我們也在擴大與既有客戶在法拍受託人（foreclosure trustee）業務上的合作。我們新增了大概六個州，並且也開始在受託人領域為其反向抵押貸款（reverse mortgage）投資組合提供服務。因此我們認為這代表我們的一些成長機會。但總體來說，我認為逾期市場一直相對平淡。這可能會改變。

I mean, Michelle, during my prepared remarks, we mentioned what's going on with home inventory. And I think in May, homes for sale were up 18% compared to the prior year and sales were down a couple of percent. So that's pretty interesting. So it appears there's a bit, more homes are available for sale. And due to the bid-ask spreads, less homes are selling. That could be typically, that's a precursor to home prices coming down like we've already seen in markets like Austin.

我是說，Michelle，在我事先準備的發言中，我們提到目前房屋庫存的情況。我記得在5月，待售房屋數量較去年同期增加18%，而銷售量下降了幾個百分點。這相當有意思。看起來可供出售的房屋變多了。而由於買賣價差（bid-ask spreads），成交的房屋變少了。通常這會是房價下跌的前兆，就像我們已在奧斯汀等市場看到的那樣。

And, I think, if that happens, you're going to see some of the more recent cohorts of originations, particularly those with very high loan to value and also those loans, even if they had more equity, that equity was after a massive run up in home prices that may not continue or even come down. That's where I think there's some risk for higher delinquencies, and that could be perhaps the first set of job that starts to benefit us.

而且我認為，如果真的發生，你會看到一些較近期的放款批次（cohorts of originations），特別是那些貸款成數（loan to value）非常高的，以及那些即便原本有較多淨值的貸款——其淨值是在房價大幅上漲後才形成的，而這種上漲可能無法延續，甚至可能回落。我認為那裡存在逾期率上升的風險，而那可能會是第一波開始讓我們受益的工作量。

All right. Thank you. And then just lastly, on the big win in Q2, the $15.3 million, the annual, that's the annual estimate for the next year or two. Could you talk about scrap win? And is that related to the renovation services at all? -- That's getting, did I hear it correctly you're getting about $100,000 of property for?

好的。謝謝。最後，關於第二季的大案子，那個1,530萬美元——那是未來一到兩年的年度估算。你能談談這個勝案嗎？而且它跟翻修服務有關嗎？——另外我是否聽對了，你們每個物件大概能拿到10萬美元左右？

Roughly, I think we're just shy of $100,000 in renovation costs on the referrals that we've received so far where we've submitted bids and have them approved by the customer. So that's sort of the ticket price, if you will of the total renovation cost that will be booked as revenue as we complete the renovations.

大致上，我想我們目前收到的轉介中，那些我們已提交報價並獲客戶核准的案子，翻修成本略低於10萬美元。所以如果你要說「單筆金額」的話，這大概就是總翻修成本；在我們完成翻修後，這部分會認列為營收。

And so I think, look, I like to look at our wins, our larger wins in aggregate, Raj. So if you look in the fourth quarter, we won this very large renovation opportunity in the first and second quarter. I think in the second quarter, we won these three trustee clients, and all three are now sending referrals.

所以我認為，你看，Raj，我喜歡把我們的勝案、較大型的勝案放在一起看。如果你回顧第四季，我們在第一季與第二季贏得了這個非常大的翻修機會。我想在第二季，我們贏得了這三個受託人客戶，而這三個現在都開始送轉介了。

We think, in aggregate, if you were to look at the sales scenario slide I think it's in the appendix, we've included that again this quarter. You'll see that between those three wins, Michelle, what's roughly, you're looking -- at $70 million, $80 million of revenue is my recollection.

我們認為，整體來看，如果你看銷售情境那張投影片，我想在附錄裡；我們這一季也再次放進去了。你會看到在這三個勝案之間，Michelle，大概是——我記得約7,000萬到8,000萬美元的營收規模。

$88 million is what we have in the deck. --

我們在簡報裡寫的是8,800萬美元。--

So we're estimating from those wins and several others on the origination side, but those would be the four largest wins as well as the expansion of trustee work with an existing customer into new states. Raj, we feel good about building up to that level of revenue from those sales wins. In fact, there's an opportunity for us too. Look, if we're optimistic there's an opportunity we could outperform it.

所以我們估計，來自這些勝案以及放款端（origination side）的其他幾個案子——但這些會是四個最大的勝案——再加上與既有客戶在受託人業務上擴展到新州的合作。Raj，我們對於把這些銷售勝案逐步建立到那樣的營收水準感到有信心。事實上，對我們來說還有上行機會。你看，如果我們保持樂觀，是有機會超越它的。

If that renovation business were to turn into 100 files a month at a $100,000 a month, you're looking $10 million of revenue a month. And we're not including anywhere near those levels in the forecast. But I think there's an opportunity for us to certainly achieve what we've included in the appendix of the slide deck, today's slide deck.

如果那個翻修業務能變成每月100件案子、每件10萬美元，你看到的就是每月1,000萬美元的營收。而我們在預測中完全沒有納入接近那樣的水準。但我認為，我們確實有機會達成我們在附錄投影片、也就是今天這份簡報中所列的內容。

Mike Grondahl, FNBO Northland.

Mike Grondahl，FNBO Northland。

On the -- I think you mentioned 35 homeowners insurance in relation to that program. Are you taking any risk with the homeowners insurance policies? Or are you just kind of an agent if you could explain that?

關於——我想你提到該計畫相關的 35 份房主保險。你們在這些房主保險保單上有承擔任何風險嗎？還是說你們只是有點像代理人，能否解釋一下？

Sure. So we launched with an insurtech partner called Policygenius, a homeowners insurance program where we're acting, we're both just acting as agents. So we're licensed as an insurance agent essentially across the country as is Policygenius.

當然。我們與一家名為 Policygenius 的保險科技合作夥伴一起推出了房主保險計畫，在這個計畫中我們的角色是——我們雙方都只是作為代理人。因此，我們本質上在全國各地都持有保險代理執照，Policygenius 也是如此。

And under the program as members join the program and their loan officers are meeting with borrowers, we're getting lead referrals to provide homeowners insurance to those customers and we're trying to simplify and reduce the friction in getting that homeowners insurance policy.

在該計畫下，當會員加入計畫、其貸款專員與借款人會面時，我們會獲得潛在客戶轉介，為這些客戶提供房主保險，並且我們正嘗試簡化並降低取得房主保險保單過程中的摩擦。

And so through our partner, through Policygenius, we can provide multiple offers of homeowners insurance to the consumer and then we're essentially earning a commission. That commission, I think, these are really rough numbers, but roughly half of the commission comes to us, half to our partner. And then that what's changed just modestly in the second for homeowner insurance renewals in the future. -- And so we're not -- the short answer is we're not taking any risk and...

因此透過我們的合作夥伴、透過 Policygenius，我們可以向消費者提供多個房主保險報價，然後我們基本上是賺取佣金。這筆佣金，我想這些都是非常粗略的數字，但大約一半的佣金歸我們，一半歸我們的合作夥伴。而且在未來房主保險續保時，這個分配在第二年會有些微變化。——所以我們不——簡短的答案是我們不承擔任何風險，而且……

You're not taking that risk. -- you are earning a -- kind of on a sale. (multiple speakers)

你們不承擔那個風險。——你們是在銷售時賺取一筆——算是按成交計的收入。（多位講者）

That's right. We have 35 members or lenders that are right now evaluating the program. We already have one signed up and now we're receiving referrals, and we're optimistic. We've got an attractive pipeline and we look forward to closing some of these deals.

沒錯。目前有 35 位會員或放款機構正在評估這個計畫。我們已經有一家簽約，現在也開始收到轉介，我們感到樂觀。我們有一個很有吸引力的案源管線，並期待促成其中一些交易。

What I like about this business is, it's not just the commission you earn the first year as the homeowners insurance policies renew, and I think the industry data is around 85%-plus renew, we continue to earn a commission as those policies get renewed. And at the same time, what's very important to us is we're actually making the closing process more frictionless for our members.

我喜歡這項業務的一點是，不只是第一年賺到的佣金；隨著房主保險保單續保——我想產業數據大約是 85% 以上會續保——當這些保單續保時，我們會持續賺取佣金。同時，對我們非常重要的是，我們其實也在讓會員的結案流程更順暢、摩擦更少。

Got it. You're leveraging that seat at the table for sure. On this newer renovation business, $100,000 per, can you just explain what you're doing there? I'm a little naive, but is that the actual renovation work? Or what are you doing to earn the $100,000 ?

了解。你們確實充分利用了那個席位。關於這個較新的翻修業務，每件 100,000 美元，你能解釋一下你們在做什麼嗎？我有點外行，但那是實際的翻修工程嗎？還是你們做了什麼來賺取這 100,000 美元？

Sure. Yes, of course. So basically, we're hired by this customer that's one of the larger owners of REO. And by the way we hope to expand this to real estate investors and single family rental investors over time, particularly as that market starts to come back. But basically, what we're doing is we go out to the property, we evaluate the condition, all based upon business rules given to us by the clients.

當然。是的，當然可以。基本上，我們是受這位客戶聘用的；該客戶是較大型的 REO（銀行收回不動產）持有人之一。順帶一提，隨著市場開始回溫，我們希望隨時間將這項服務擴展到房地產投資人與獨棟出租住宅投資人，尤其是那個市場回來之後。但基本上，我們所做的是到現場看房，評估房屋狀況，一切都依據客戶提供給我們的業務規則。

We determine based on their business rules, what work needs to be done, and we've got some pretty sophisticated tools to do this analysis and bid work. The client basically tells us what the prices that they pay for the services. We submit the bid.

我們依據他們的業務規則判定需要做哪些工程，而且我們有一些相當先進的工具來做這項分析與估價/投標工作。客戶基本上會告訴我們他們願意為各項服務支付的價格。我們提交投標。

If the client says yes, we basically are managing the renovation work through a contractor network that actually is doing the work with our oversight, and then we make the difference between what we're paid and what we pay the contractors. -- Less some internal costs.

如果客戶同意，我們基本上會透過一個承包商網絡來管理翻修工程；實際施工由承包商執行、我們負責監督，然後我們賺取我們收到的款項與我們支付給承包商之間的差額。——再扣除一些內部成本。

Great. And then maybe it's too early. But any initial thoughts on 2025, just sort of assuming the world stays around, how are you thinking about 2025 at this point?

很好。然後也許現在還太早。但對 2025 年有沒有任何初步想法？假設世界大致維持現狀，你們目前怎麼看 2025 年？

Yes. So look, we put some couple of scenarios in the back of the second quarter earnings slide presentation, and we show what we think revenue and EBITDA would look like as we fully ramp the sales that we’ve already won.

有。所以你看，我們在第二季財報簡報投影片的後面放了幾個情境，並展示在我們把已經拿下的銷售全面拉升之後，我們認為營收與 EBITDA 會是什麼樣子。

And by the way, that does not include our sales pipeline. All that would be incremental to both those scenarios we’ve included in the presentation. And I think we also talked about on the call that we’re cautiously optimistic we can exit this year or end this year with a $30 million run rate EBITDA.

順帶一提，那不包含我們的銷售管線。那些都會在我們簡報中所列的兩個情境之上，對兩者帶來額外增量。而且我想我們在電話會議上也提到，我們審慎樂觀地認為，今年結束時我們可以達到 3,000 萬美元的 EBITDA 年化運行率（run rate）。

And so of course, there’s some puts and takes. We’ve included some customer attrition or churn in our sales scenario to try to be reasonable in our approach. But I think that’s where, how we’re thinking about the business right now. But we’re not putting out any guidance at this point.

當然，其中有一些利多與利空因素。我們在銷售情境中納入了一些客戶流失或流轉（churn），以讓我們的做法更為合理。但我想這就是我們目前對這項業務的思考方式。不過我們此刻不會提供任何財測指引。

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd now like to turn it back to Will Shepro for closing remarks.

謝謝。我這邊顯示目前沒有其他問題。接下來我想把時間交回給 Will Shepro 作結語。

Great. Thank you, operator. We're very happy with our second quarter financial performance and believe we're well positioned for this year and beyond. Thanks for joining today's call.

很好。謝謝你，接線員。我們對第二季的財務表現非常滿意，並相信我們已為今年及未來做好良好布局。感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝各位參與今天的會議。本次議程到此結束。您現在可以掛線。