Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A. (ASPS) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Altisource Portfolio Solutions first-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

各位好，感謝您耐心等候。歡迎參加 Altisource Portfolio Solutions 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Michelle Esterman, Chief Financial Officer.

現在我想把會議交給今天的第一位講者，財務長 Michelle Esterman。

Thank you, operator. We first want to remind you that the earnings release Form 10Q and quarterly slides are available on our website at www.altisource.com. These provide additional information investors may find useful.

謝謝，接線員。我們首先想提醒各位，我們的財報新聞稿、10-Q 表格以及季度簡報已公布於公司網站 www.altisource.com。這些資料提供投資人可能覺得有用的補充資訊。

Our remarks today include forward-looking statements, which involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. Financial projections and scenarios are expressly qualified as forward looking statements and as with other forward-looking statements should not be unduly relied upon.

我們今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述，涉及多項風險與不確定性，可能導致實際結果有所差異。財務預測與情境分析明確屬於前瞻性陳述；與其他前瞻性陳述一樣，不應過度依賴。

In addition to the usual uncertainty associated with forward-looking statements, the continuing impacts of government and service are responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, governmental fiscal policies and current economic conditions make it extremely difficult to predict the future state of the economy and the industries in which we operate, as well as the potential impact on Altisource.

除前瞻性陳述通常伴隨的不確定性外，政府與服務機構對 COVID-19 疫情的持續影響與應對、政府財政政策以及當前經濟狀況，使得我們極難預測未來經濟與我們所處產業的狀態，以及對 Altisource 的潛在影響。

Please review the forward-looking statements sections in the company's earnings release and quarterly slides, as well as the risk factors contained in our 2023, Form 10K describing some factors that may lead to different results. We undertake no obligation to update statements, financial scenarios and projections previously provided or provided herein as a result of a change in circumstances, new information or future events.

請查閱公司財報新聞稿與季度簡報中的前瞻性陳述章節，以及我們 2023 年 10-K 表格中所載的風險因素，該等內容描述了可能導致結果不同的一些因素。因情勢變化、新資訊或未來事件而對先前提供或於本次提供的陳述、財務情境與預測進行更新，我們不承擔任何義務。

During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. In our earnings release and quarterly slides, you will find additional disclosures regarding the non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in the appendix to the quarterly slides.

在本次電話會議中，我們將同時呈現 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。在我們的財報新聞稿與季度簡報中，您將可找到關於非 GAAP 指標的額外揭露。GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標之間的調節表收錄於季度簡報的附錄中。

Joining me for today's call is Will Shepro, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. I will now turn the call over to Will.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的還有我們的董事長兼執行長 Will Shepro。接下來我把電話交給 Will。

Thanks, Michelle, and good morning. I'll begin on slide 4. I'm very pleased with our first quarter performance. We generated $4.6 million of adjusted EBITDA, marking our best quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2020 on $36.9 million of service revenue. We believe our financial results and sales wins demonstrate that we are not waiting for the default market to return to normal or for delinquency rates to rise to achieve growth.

謝謝你，Michelle，大家早安。我將從第 4 張投影片開始。我對我們第一季的表現非常滿意。在 3,690 萬美元的服務營收下，我們創造了 460 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，這是自 2020 年第三季以來最佳的單季表現。我們認為，我們的財務結果與銷售得標顯示，我們並非在等待違約市場回到正常，或等待逾期率上升才來實現成長。

We improved adjusted EBITDA by more than $30 million over the last two calendar years in an incredibly difficult environment of low origination volume, coupled with close to historically low mortgage delinquency rates. For 2024, in what continues to be a difficult environment, we forecast that we will grow revenue by 23% and adjusted EBITDA by $21 million compared to last year at the midpoint of our guidance.

在放款量偏低、且房貸逾期率接近歷史低點的極其艱困環境下，我們在過去兩個曆年將調整後 EBITDA 改善了超過 3,000 萬美元。對於 2024 年，在仍然艱困的環境中，我們預測在指引中點，相較去年營收將成長 23%，調整後 EBITDA 將增加 2,100 萬美元。

If achieved this represents an adjusted EBITDA improvement of approximately $52 million over the three year period. For the balance of this year, we anticipate quarter-over-quarter service revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth compared to the same quarters in 2023, as we continue to ramp sales wins and win new business on a lower cost base.

若能達成，這代表在三年期間調整後 EBITDA 約改善 5,200 萬美元。在今年剩餘期間，隨著我們持續放大已得標案並在較低成本基礎上贏得新業務，我們預期服務營收與調整後 EBITDA 將相較 2023 年同季呈現逐季成長。

And as the default market returns to normal and origination volumes increase, Altisource should benefit even more. In our servicer and real estate segment, we are winning market share. Of the three exciting service on real estate pipeline opportunities I discussed with you last month, we entered into agreements with two. One in March and one this month. We anticipate signing a third agreement this quarter.

而當違約市場回到正常、放款量增加時，Altisource 應可獲得更大的受益。在我們的貸後服務與不動產（servicer and real estate）事業部門，我們正在贏得市占率。就我上個月與各位分享的三個令人振奮的貸後服務與不動產管線機會而言，我們已與其中兩個簽訂協議。一個在三月，另一個在本月。我們預期本季將簽署第三份協議。

In our origination segment, we are increasing adoption of our solutions that help originators save money. During the quarter, we signed another 13 agreements for our tri-merge credit product and related retailer services. We are already seeing the benefit of our growth initiatives and believe this will be reflected in our financial results as the year progresses. I'll discuss our sales progress and pipeline in more detail in a few minutes.

在我們的放款（origination）事業部門，我們正提高採用可協助放款機構節省成本的解決方案。本季我們又為三合一（tri-merge）信用產品及相關零售商服務簽署了另外 13 份協議。我們已經看到成長計畫帶來的效益，並相信隨著年度推進，這些效益將反映在我們的財務結果中。幾分鐘後我會更詳細說明我們的銷售進展與管線。

Slide 5 provides additional information on our financial performance and trends. Total company service revenue grew 15% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 with a 11% growth in the service and real estate segment and 30% in the originations segment. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, total company service revenue was almost flat, driven by growth in the origination segment, offset by a decline in the servicer and real estate segment from an estimated $1 million of one-time revenue in March 2023.

第 5 張投影片提供了我們財務表現與趨勢的更多資訊。全公司服務營收較 2023 年第四季成長 15%，其中貸後服務與不動產事業部門成長 11%，放款事業部門成長 30%。與 2023 年第一季相比，全公司服務營收幾乎持平；放款事業部門的成長被貸後服務與不動產事業部門的下滑所抵銷，該下滑部分源自 2023 年 3 月估計約 100 萬美元的一次性營收。

Company-wide adjusted EBITDA of $4.6 million was $4.4 million higher than the fourth quarter and $3.2 million higher than the first quarter of 2023, and represents 23% of the midpoint of our 2024 guidance we provided on our fourth quarter call. Adjusted EBITDA margins expanded to 12.6% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 0.7% in the fourth quarter of '23 and 4% in the first quarter of '23.

全公司調整後 EBITDA 為 460 萬美元，較第四季高出 440 萬美元，較 2023 年第一季高出 320 萬美元，並相當於我們在第四季電話會議所提供之 2024 年指引中點的 23%。2024 年第一季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大至 12.6%，相較之下，2023 年第四季為 0.7%，2023 年第一季為 4%。

First quarter 2024, total company adjusted EBITDA included an estimated $600,000 in nonrecurring net benefits and first quarter last year included an estimated $2.1 million in nonrecurring net benefits. Total company improvement was driven by margin expansion in both of our segments and lower corporate costs.

2024 年第一季全公司調整後 EBITDA 包含估計 60 萬美元的非經常性淨利益，而去年第一季則包含估計 210 萬美元的非經常性淨利益。全公司改善主要來自兩個事業部門的利潤率擴張以及較低的公司層級成本。

Over the last couple of years, we have provided you with a run rate scenario to demonstrate what Altisource's run rate revenue and adjusted EBITDA could look like in a normal pre pandemic default operating environment for holding the origination segment constant. While we believe that our 2024 guidance takes a conservative approach to the recovery of the default market.

在過去幾年，我們提供了一個「運行率（run rate）」情境，用以展示在疫情前、違約業務運作環境回歸正常、且放款事業部門維持不變的情況下，Altisource 的運行率營收與調整後 EBITDA 可能呈現的樣貌。雖然我們認為 2024 年指引對違約市場復甦採取了保守的假設。

We also believe the market will return to a more normal environment in time. Loans originated over the last couple of years after a massive increase in home values generally don't have the same level of home equity compared to loans originated before then. In addition, FHA loans are typically originated with only 3% down, providing a much lower equity cushion even with home price appreciation over the last several years.

我們也相信市場終將回到較為正常的環境。過去幾年在房價大幅上漲後所發放的貸款，通常相較於更早之前發放的貸款，並不具備同等程度的房屋淨值（home equity）。此外，FHA 貸款通常僅需 3% 的頭期款，即使過去幾年房價上漲，其淨值緩衝仍然低得多。

Of course, we are not waiting for the market to recover to seek to grow our business. We have a strong suite of solutions that we believe support both the servicer and origination markets, and are winning new business.

當然，我們不會等市場復甦才尋求擴大業務。我們擁有一套強而有力的解決方案組合，我們相信可同時支援貸後服務（servicer）與貸款發起（origination）市場，並且正在贏得新業務。

To help you understand the magnitude of the revenue and earnings opportunity from our sales wins in both segments. We are providing a financial scenario on slide 6. The scenario annualizes and adjusts our first quarter performance to exclude nonrecurring items and as estimated fully ramped service revenue and adjusted EBITDA related to business, we have already won net of an assumed level of churn.

為了協助您了解我們在兩個業務板塊銷售勝出所帶來的營收與獲利機會之規模。我們在第 6 頁投影片提供了一個財務情境分析。該情境將我們第一季的表現年化並加以調整，以排除非經常性項目，並納入我們已贏得業務在完全爬坡後的預估服務營收與調整後 EBITDA（扣除假設的流失水準後的淨額）。

As you can see on the slide, ramping estimated revenue from existing sales wins at estimated EBITDA margins could increase first quarter of 2024 annualized service revenue from #147 million to $219 million and adjusted EBITDA from $16 million to $35 million. This doesn't assume any further wins from our current sales pipeline, a normal default operating environment, revenue from the launch of new lenders one solutions, an increase in delinquency rates nor a return to a higher level of origination volume.

如投影片所示，若以預估 EBITDA 利潤率將既有銷售勝出案的預估營收逐步爬坡，可能使 2024 年第一季年化服務營收由 1.47 億美元提高至 2.19 億美元，並使調整後 EBITDA 由 1,600 萬美元提高至 3,500 萬美元。此情境不假設我們目前銷售管線的任何進一步勝出、不假設正常的違約（default）營運環境、不包含新 Lenders One 解決方案上線帶來的營收、不假設逾期率上升，也不假設貸款發起量回升至較高水準。

We have made tremendous progress winning new business and improving our operational efficiency in a tough market. We believe this scenario illustrates the bright future ahead for Altisource, as we ramp our sales wins with additional growth potential.

在艱困的市場中，我們在贏得新業務與提升營運效率方面取得了巨大進展。我們相信，隨著我們將銷售勝出案逐步爬坡並具備額外成長潛力，該情境展現了 Altisource 光明的未來。

Slide 7 provides additional information on our servicer and real estate segment. First Quarter 2024 service revenue in this segment was 11% higher than the fourth quarter of 2023 and 2% lower than the first quarter of 2023. If you exclude the estimated $1 million of nonrecurring revenue from the first quarter of last year, revenue for the first quarter of this year would have been modestly higher than the first quarter of last year. We continued to experience growth in certain higher-margin businesses that support the earlier stage of the default process.

第 7 頁投影片提供了我們貸後服務與不動產板塊的更多資訊。2024 年第一季該板塊的服務營收較 2023 年第四季高 11%，較 2023 年第一季低 2%。若排除去年第一季約 100 萬美元的非經常性營收，則今年第一季的營收將略高於去年第一季。我們在某些支援違約流程較早期階段、且毛利率較高的業務上持續成長。

Adjusted EBITDA of $10.4 million was 21% higher than the fourth quarter of 2023 and a 6% lower than the first quarter of last year. Adjusted EBITDA margins were 35.8% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 32.9% in the fourth quarter of 2023, and 37.4% in the same period last year. Improving compared to last quarter reflects our efficiency initiatives partially offset by an estimated $600,000 in net nonrecurring expenses in the first quarter of this year.

調整後 EBITDA 為 1,040 萬美元，較 2023 年第四季高 21%，較去年第一季低 6%。2024 年第一季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 35.8%，相較之下 2023 年第四季為 32.9%，去年同期為 37.4%。相較上季的改善反映了我們的效率提升措施，但部分被今年第一季估計 60 萬美元的淨非經常性費用所抵銷。

First Quarter 2023 margins were modestly higher from an estimated $1 million of prior year nonrecurring revenue, the majority of which increased adjusted EBITDA and the estimated $600,000 of current year net nonrecurring expenses, I just discussed.

2023 年第一季的利潤率略高，原因包括：去年約 100 萬美元的非經常性營收（其中大部分提高了調整後 EBITDA），以及我剛才提到的今年約 60 萬美元淨非經常性費用。

Slide 8 provides a summary of our servicer and real estate sales wins and pipeline. For the quarter, we won new business that we estimate will generate $6.3 million in annual revenue on a stabilized basis over the next couple of years.

第 8 頁投影片彙總了我們在貸後服務與不動產板塊的銷售勝出與銷售管線。本季我們贏得的新業務，估計在未來幾年達到穩定運行後，將帶來 630 萬美元的年化營收。

Last quarter, I highlighted three larger late-stage opportunities in the pipeline. To be toward the end of the first quarter, we signed the agreement to provide REO auction services for a loan servicer. In April, we signed an agreement to provide foreclosure trustees services for a loan servicer and anticipate signing the second trustee agreement this quarter.

上季我強調了管線中三個較大型、處於後期階段的機會。在第一季接近尾聲時，我們簽署協議，為一家貸款服務商提供 REO 拍賣服務。4 月，我們簽署協議，為一家貸款服務商提供法拍受託人（foreclosure trustees）服務，並預期本季將簽署第二份受託人協議。

We have completed the onboarding process for both wins and began receiving referrals this month. These wins represent an expansion of services that we provide to existing customers. We also made progress ramping sales wins from 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2023, we signed agreements to provide REO renovation services for one of the larger owners of REO assets.

我們已完成這兩項勝出案的導入（onboarding）流程，並於本月開始收到案件轉介。這些勝出案代表我們對既有客戶所提供服務的擴展。我們也在推進 2023 年銷售勝出案的爬坡。在 2023 年第四季，我們簽署協議，為 REO 資產的其中一位大型持有人提供 REO 翻修服務。

We received our first renovation referrals last week. We anticipate referral volume from this customer will ramp as the year progresses. Another fourth quarter win was an expansion of wallet share with an existing customer in our higher margin trustee business. We started to receive an increase in referrals in January, which continued to grow through the quarter. We anticipate these referral volumes to ramp through the summer and stabilize thereafter.

我們在上週收到第一批翻修案件轉介。我們預期來自該客戶的轉介量將隨著年度推進而逐步增加。另一項第四季勝出案，是在我們毛利率較高的受託人業務中，擴大與既有客戶的錢包份額。我們自 1 月起開始收到更多轉介，並在本季持續成長。我們預期這些轉介量將在夏季持續爬坡，之後趨於穩定。

We ended the quarter with a total weighted average sales pipeline of $26.7 million of annual revenue on a stabilized basis, most of which we forecast will impact 2025 and beyond. The decline in the sales pipeline compared to last quarter primarily reflects our sales wins.

本季末，我們的加權平均銷售管線總額為 2,670 萬美元（以穩定運行後的年化營收計），其中大部分我們預測將在 2025 年及以後反映。相較上季，銷售管線下降主要反映了我們的銷售勝出。

Turning to the macroeconomic environment on slide 9. As we discussed on our call in March, we continue to believe that there are early signs of consumer financial stress and that these could be precursors to arise in mortgage delinquency rates.

接著看第 9 頁投影片的總體經濟環境。如同我們在 3 月電話會議中討論的，我們仍然認為消費者財務壓力已出現早期跡象，而這些可能是房貸逾期率上升的前兆。

Moving to our origination segment and slide 10. Our origination segment performed very well. Despite the 6% decline in industry-wide residential origination volume in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The originations segment outperformed the market with service revenue growth of 30% and an adjusted EBITDA improvement of $900,000 to $500,000.

接著看我們的貸款發起板塊與第 10 頁投影片。我們的貸款發起板塊表現非常出色。儘管第一季全行業住宅貸款發起量較 2023 年第四季下降 6%。貸款發起板塊仍優於市場，服務營收成長 30%，調整後 EBITDA 改善 90 萬美元至 50 萬美元。

We also grew service revenue by 7% and adjusted EBITDA by $1.2 million compared to last year. Revenue growth was driven by customer wins from our newer solutions and price increases in the Lenders One business.

相較去年，我們的服務營收也成長 7%，調整後 EBITDA 增加 120 萬美元。營收成長主要來自我們較新解決方案的客戶勝出，以及 Lenders One 業務的價格調整。

Adjusted EBITDA improved from revenue growth and cost savings and efficiency initiatives. As you can see on this slide, the origination segment's gross profit, gross profit margins, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins all improved relative to prior quarters.

調整後 EBITDA 的改善來自營收成長、成本節省與效率提升措施。如投影片所示，貸款發起板塊的毛利、毛利率、調整後 EBITDA 及調整後 EBITDA 利潤率，相較前幾季皆有所改善。

Slide 11 provides a summary of our origination segment sales wins and pipeline. We continue to focus on helping our Lenders One members save money and better compete. This is driving substantial interest in our solutions. On an annualized stabilized basis, we won an estimated $4.2 million in new business in the first quarter.

第 11 頁投影片彙總了我們貸款發起板塊的銷售勝出與銷售管線。我們持續聚焦協助 Lenders One 會員節省成本並提升競爭力。這正推動市場對我們解決方案的高度興趣。以年化、穩定運行後的基礎計算，我們在第一季贏得估計 420 萬美元的新業務。

Our weighted average sales pipeline at the end of the quarter was $13.9 million. We are excited about our progress in the originations segment. During difficult times, lenders are more diligently examining their costs, and we are winning a lot of new business as a result. With sustained low origination volumes, we have been provided an attractive window of opportunity.

本季末，我們的加權平均銷售管線為 1,390 萬美元。我們對貸款發起板塊的進展感到振奮。在艱難時期，放款機構會更嚴格檢視其成本，因此我們因此贏得了大量新業務。在貸款發起量持續偏低的情況下，我們獲得了一個具吸引力的機會窗口。

We expect to benefit from this growth both today and even more when origination volumes return to more normal levels. Additionally, we continue to focus on rolling out new solutions to help our Lenders One members make more money. We believe the regular launch of new solutions to Lenders One members combined with greater adoption of our existing solutions will strengthen our value proposition for Lenders One members and support further revenue in earnings growth in our originations segment.

我們預期將從這項成長中受益，不僅是現在，且在放款承作量回到較正常水準時更是如此。此外，我們持續專注於推出新解決方案，協助我們的 Lenders One 會員賺取更多收入。我們相信，持續定期向 Lenders One 會員推出新解決方案，並結合更高的既有解決方案採用率，將強化我們對 Lenders One 會員的價值主張，並支持我們承作（originations）事業部門營收與獲利的進一步成長。

Turning to our corporate segment in slide 12. We continue to bring down our operating costs. First Quarter 2024, corporate adjusted EBITDA loss of $6.3 million was $1.8 million or 22% better than the fourth quarter of 2023, and $2.7 million or 30% better than the first quarter of 2023. The first quarter 2024 results included an estimated $1.2 million of net nonrecurring benefits in the first quarter of 2023, included an estimated $1.3 million of nonrecurring benefits.

接著看投影片 12 的公司（corporate）部門。我們持續降低營運成本。2024 年第一季，公司部門調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 630 萬美元，較 2023 年第四季改善 180 萬美元（或 22%），較 2023 年第一季改善 270 萬美元（或 30%）。2024 年第一季的結果包含估計 120 萬美元的淨一次性利益；而 2023 年第一季則包含估計 130 萬美元的一次性利益。

Absent these benefits, first quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA loss in corporate was 4% better than the fourth quarter of 2023, and 25% better than the first quarter of 2023. The lower adjusted EBITDA loss also reflects our cost savings and efficiency initiatives.

若排除這些利益，公司部門 2024 年第一季調整後 EBITDA 虧損較 2023 年第四季改善 4%，較 2023 年第一季改善 25%。調整後 EBITDA 虧損下降也反映了我們的成本節省與效率提升措施。

Moving to slide 13. In summary, I'm pleased with our first quarter performance. We continue to win meaningful new business and are making good progress ramping 2023 sales wins in a historically difficult market. As a result, we anticipate that we will generate quarterly year-over-year service revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth compared to the same quarters in 2023 for the balance of the year.

接著看投影片 13。總結來說，我對我們第一季的表現感到滿意。我們持續贏得具意義的新業務，並在歷來艱難的市場中，對 2023 年的銷售勝出案（sales wins）加速導入（ramp）方面取得良好進展。因此，我們預期在今年剩餘期間，相較於 2023 年同季，將可實現季度的年對年服務營收與調整後 EBITDA 成長。

We believe we are also on track to achieve 13% to 32% service revenue growth over 2023, and adjusted EBITDA of between $17.5 million and $22.5 million in 2024. If achieved, this represents an adjusted EBITDA improvement of approximately $52 million over a three year period.

我們也相信，我們有望在 2024 年達成相較 2023 年 13% 至 32% 的服務營收成長，以及介於 1,750 萬至 2,250 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。若能達成，這代表在三年期間調整後 EBITDA 約改善 5,200 萬美元。

I'll now open up the call for questions. Operator?

接下來我將開放提問。接線生？

Thank you. And at this time we will conduct a question and answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。現在我們將進行問答環節。(接線生指示)

Mike Grondahl, Northland.

Mike Grondahl，Northland。

Hey, thank you. Just trying to think through Will, kind of your latest thoughts on when foreclosure sales might ramp. And is there any other leading indicator we should look to? Delinquent GSE loans, macro things on job loss, but where's your head kind of today for that ramp in? I don't know, what are you looking to help you kind of bench market?

嗨，謝謝。我想請教 Will，你目前對法拍（foreclosure）出售量何時可能加速回升的最新看法是什麼？另外，還有沒有其他我們應該關注的領先指標？例如 GSE 的逾期貸款、宏觀面像是失業增加等，但你目前對這個回升時點的想法是什麼？你會看哪些指標來幫助你做基準判斷（benchmark）？

Hey, Mike. Thanks for the question. So, I guess the first point I want to make is, we're not waiting for the market to recover, the default market to get back to normal or for delinquency rates to rise to improve our revenue and earnings, I think that's a really important message. But then specifically to your question, Mike, look, I think the market is recovering less than we at a slower pace than we expected.

嗨，Mike。謝謝你的問題。我想先強調第一點：我們並不是在等待市場復甦、等待違約市場回到正常，或等待逾期率上升才來改善我們的營收與獲利；我認為這是一個非常重要的訊息。但就你具體的問題而言，Mike，坦白說，我認為市場復甦的速度比我們預期的還要慢。

I thought there, given those precursors rise in auto delinquencies, credit cards, student loan delinquencies. We all thought these were good solid indicators of what ultimately was going to happen or what ultimately should happen with mortgage delinquency rates. But today, they're sitting roughly flat to where they were a year ago. And so we're paying close attention and we do anticipate that over time the market will get back to normal.

我原本以為，鑑於汽車貸款逾期、信用卡逾期、學生貸款逾期等前導指標上升，我們都認為這些是相當扎實的指標，能反映最終將發生、或理應發生在房貸逾期率上的變化。但目前房貸逾期率大致持平，與一年前差不多。因此我們正密切關注，並且預期隨著時間推移，市場會回到正常狀態。

If you look and I talked a little bit about this in my prepared remarks. if you look at loans originated again on there is several million loans originated over the last couple of years that followed the run-up in home prices. And if you look at FHA loans that have 97% loan to value, there's even with the run-up of home prices over the last couple of years. There's not a lot of equity in those homes.

如果你看——我在事先準備的講稿中也稍微提到——過去幾年在房價上漲之後，又新增承作了數百萬筆貸款。而如果你看貸款成數（LTV）達 97% 的 FHA 貸款，即使過去幾年房價上漲，這些房屋的淨值（equity）其實並不多。

And so I think as the economy, as things get back to normal, you would expect those the operating environment for those more recent cohorts of loan originations to return to a more normal operating environment. And by the way, I think, Mike, if the market we did run the math and say what happens if the market were to get back to normal to this scenario we presented today and I think you would see on a when we look back to the run rate scenario we provided, I think, in the third or fourth quarter of last year, and we we account for some potential runoff of our anchor client portfolios and some other churn from customers.

因此我認為，當經濟回歸常態、各項狀況回到正常時，你會預期這些較近期的放款批次（cohorts）的營運環境也會回到較正常的狀態。順帶一提，Mike，我們也做過試算：如果市場回到正常，對我們今天提出的情境會有什麼影響；我認為你會看到——當我們回頭看去年第三或第四季提供的 run-rate 情境時——並且我們把部分主要客戶（anchor client）投資組合可能的自然流失（runoff）以及其他客戶流失（churn）納入考量。

I mean we could in a normal environment, add another $30 million roughly of adjusted EBITDA to the scenario we presented today. So, on top of the, I think it was a $35 million of adjusted EBITDA in our scenario. You could add as much as another $30 million of EBITDA.

我的意思是，在正常環境下，我們大約可以在今天提出的情境之上，再增加約 3,000 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。也就是在我們情境中約 3,500 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 之上，你可能還能再增加多達約 3,000 萬美元的 EBITDA。

Now there may be a little bit of additional fixed costs we would add. But the number, the EBITDA becomes quite interesting as that market recovers. So, it's hard for us to tell when it's going to recover. We think some of the early signs exist that there could be some stress in the market, but we're not waiting for that to happen to grow our revenue and earnings.

當然，我們可能也會增加一些額外的固定成本。但隨著市場復甦，EBITDA 的數字會變得相當有吸引力。因此，我們很難判斷它何時會復甦。我們認為市場中已出現一些早期跡象，顯示可能存在壓力，但我們不會等到那真的發生才來成長我們的營收與獲利。

Got it. And then two questions kind of related to slide 17. The first one, the consolidated sales pipeline and win. You guys had a bunch of wins in '23, right? Like $68 million worth and you've cumulatively got above $8 million of that into revenue. If we look at the same time period, those five quarters presented. How should we think about the next, I'll call it the remaining $60 million flowing into revenue?

了解。接著有兩個與投影片 17 相關的問題。第一個是合併口徑的銷售管線與得標（win）。你們在 2023 年有一堆得標案，對吧？大約 6,800 萬美元，而且累計已有超過 800 萬美元轉為營收。如果我們看同一期間、也就是呈現的那五個季度，我們應該如何看待接下來——我稱之為剩餘的 6,000 萬美元——逐步轉為營收的節奏？

Yes, no, it's a very good question, Mike. So, I think what you're going to see is we're now ramping and you see that on the bottom row of that slide 17, where we did, I think $3.5 billion. So, we are starting to ramp it. You're going to see that we're going to continue to ramp the sales wins as the year progresses. And look, when we get to the fourth quarter, we're not going to be quite at that run rate.

是的，不是，這是個非常好的問題，Mike。所以，我認為你將會看到的是，我們現在正在加速推進，你可以在第17頁投影片的最下排看到，我們做到了我想是35億美元。因此，我們正開始把它拉升。你會看到，隨著年度推進，我們將持續拉升銷售勝出。而且你看，到了第四季，我們不會完全達到那樣的運行速率。

But I think from an EBITDA perspective, we're expecting to be north of a $30 million EBITDA run rate, if you annualize our fourth quarter performance. You're going to start to see the benefit, and again, we're being very conservative on the with default market recovering. This is primarily from ramping sales wins, more efficient cost base or lower cost base.

但我認為從EBITDA的角度來看，如果把我們第四季的表現年化，我們預期EBITDA的運行速率會高於3,000萬美元。你將開始看到效益，而且再次強調，我們對於違約市場復甦的假設非常保守。這主要來自於銷售勝出的加速推進、更有效率的成本結構或更低的成本基礎。

Got it. And then that that's helpful, but that exit run rate. And then my last question on the top line attractive sales pipeline. I sort of get 3Q '23, 4Q '23. Those numbers were kind of flattish and I think a chunk of the pipeline went down into wins. But then if I go 4Q'23 to 1Q '24. Yes, you had $10 million fallout to wins, but the number dropped by about $8 million. Are you happy where your pipeline is? Do you kind of need to rebuild some of that now or I don't know, just help us think about that pipeline, the size of it? What does it need to be to kind of continue to support these these wins?

了解。然後這很有幫助，但那個退出時的運行速率。接著我最後一個問題是關於營收端那個具吸引力的銷售管線。我大概理解2023年第三季、2023年第四季。那些數字有點持平，而且我想管線中有一部分轉成了勝出。但如果我看2023年第四季到2024年第一季。是的，你有1,000萬美元從管線轉為勝出，但那個數字卻下降了大約800萬美元。你對目前的管線規模滿意嗎？你是否需要現在重建其中一部分，或我不確定，請幫我們理解一下這個管線、它的規模？它需要到什麼程度，才能持續支撐這些勝出？

Yes, I think you're right, Mike. The reason for the drop reflects, primarily reflects the sales wins. And we have some pre-dated meaningful sales when you're going to see, I think there's a footnote about it, but in April, we had a pretty good sales win that I talked about in my prepared remarks related to our trustee business. We think we're going to sign a second agreement hopefully this quarter, which will go into the win column as well.

是的，我認為你說得對，Mike。下降的原因主要反映了銷售勝出。而且我們有一些在期前就已確定的重大銷售——你會看到，我想有個註腳提到——但在4月，我們有一筆相當不錯的銷售勝出，我在事先準備的發言中談到，與我們的受託人業務相關。我們希望本季能簽下第二份協議，這也會列入勝出欄位。

Look, we're never happy with the sales pipeline. We always wanted to be bigger, Mike, and we've got a really strong sales team, that's done a very nice job of building the pipeline, winning market share in a really tough market today, particularly on the default side.

你看，我們從來不會對銷售管線感到滿意。我們總是希望它更大，Mike，而且我們有一支非常強的銷售團隊，在今天這個非常艱難的市場中，尤其是在違約端，做得非常好，建立管線並贏得市占。

And so I'm pleased with the progress we're making, but I'm never, I always wanted that pipeline to be bigger, and we talk about it internally, not just this quarter, but each quarter we set pretty aggressive goals around how we want to grow the pipeline. But we feel good. This is a weighted average pipeline, keep in mind. The actual pipeline is much higher than that.

所以我對我們取得的進展感到滿意，但我從來不會——我總是希望那個管線更大。我們在內部也會討論，不只是這一季，而是每一季我們都會設定相當積極的目標，來推動管線成長。但我們感覺良好。請記住，這是一個加權平均的管線。實際的管線規模遠高於此。

Got it. Hey, that color is helpful. Thanks and good luck.

了解。嘿，這些補充說明很有幫助。謝謝，祝順利。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝你，Mike。

Raj Sharma, B. Riley.

Raj Sharma，B. Riley。

Yes, hi. So, congratulations on the increase in profitability. I wanted to ask you two questions on the slide, earlier stage, the business wins that are contributing to $88 million in annualized revenue increase. How is that split, that's slide 6. How does that split between the default services and the market? I mean, I'm assuming that has nothing to do with the Hubzu side marketplaces and also how is that split with originations?

是的，你好。首先恭喜獲利能力提升。我想就投影片問你兩個問題：在較早期階段、帶來年化營收增加8,800萬美元的那些業務勝出。那是如何拆分的——在第6頁。在違約服務與市場之間如何拆分？我的意思是，我假設這與Hubzu那邊的市集平台無關；另外，與承作（originations）之間又是如何拆分的？

Sure. So, hey, Raj. Let me turn to that slide.

當然。所以，嗨，Raj。我來看一下那張投影片。

The service revenue scenario.

服務營收情境。

So, you are on slide 6. So, of that $88 million, I would say a meaningful portion of that is tied to the growth of our renovation business. Then some of it is tied to the growth of these trustee wins and I think this is a sales wins through April 20th or so, it may be April 24th. So, this includes the trustee business, the renovation business would probably be the two.

所以，你在第6頁。在這8,800萬美元當中，我會說相當大的一部分與我們整修（renovation）業務的成長有關。然後其中一部分與這些受託人（trustee）勝出的成長有關，而且我想這是截至4月20日左右的銷售勝出，可能是4月24日。所以，這包括受託人業務；整修業務大概會是這兩個。

The renovation being the largest and the two trustee wins and then the next largest would be probably, I don't have that right in front of me, but I think some of that REO auction work that we're doing for a loan servicer. That's a market share gain. And then there's some in the origination side, but it's pretty small relatively speaking compared to what's the growth in the servicer and real estate segment.

整修是最大的一塊；接著是兩筆受託人勝出；然後下一大塊可能是——我手邊沒有精確數字——但我想是我們為某家貸款服務商所做的一些REO拍賣工作。那是市占提升。另外在承作端也有一些，但相對而言很小，與服務商與不動產部門的成長相比。

So, I think just to repeat, largely, it's the renovation business of the two trustee wins. And then for the REO auction business. There's a little bit of title wins in there as well.

所以，我再重複一次：主要是整修業務與兩筆受託人勝出。然後是REO拍賣業務。其中也有一點產權（title）方面的勝出。

Right. So, all this is, if I'm correct in understanding all that, all this, all these wins are in the earlier stage of the foreclosure process basically. If the foreclosures market is not moving up considerably and we know there's more loss mitigation and there's more loan modifications and other early so, this is the earlier stage.

好的。所以，如果我理解正確的話，這些——所有這些勝出基本上都在止贖流程的較早階段。如果止贖市場沒有顯著上升，而我們知道有更多的損失緩解、更多的貸款修改以及其他更早期的措施——所以這是在較早期階段。

Could you talk about the trustee? Is the trustee referral expansion business. You are taking share there. And that's largely all of the gains. But are you, do you make much money, if there is loss modification, loss mitigation, loan modification?

你能談談受託人嗎？受託人轉介擴張業務。你們是在那裡取得市占嗎？而這基本上就是所有的增長來源。但如果有損失修改、損失緩解、貸款修改，你們還能賺到多少錢？

Yes. So, we're a foreclosure trustee, and I think it's 11 or 12 states, and there's milestone billing, Raj. So, and we're not assuming that each foreclosure file we receive makes it all the way through the end of the process. But in the milestone billing process, I think you're probably billing 60% or 70% of the total fees in the first couple of months of receiving the referral.

是的。所以，我們是止贖受託人，我想是在11或12個州，而且有里程碑式計費（milestone billing），Raj。因此，我們並不假設我們收到的每一個止贖案件都會一路走到流程結束。但在里程碑計費流程中，我想你可能在收到轉介後的前一兩個月，就能開立總費用的60%或70%。

So, it's not dependent on making it all the way through the end and our analysis or forecast of what the revenue could look like on a stabilized basis is in today's market, not in a rising delinquency rate environment or a more normal delinquency environment. And yes, it's a very profitable business for us.

所以，這並不取決於是否一路做到最後；而且我們對在穩定狀態下營收可能呈現的樣貌所做的分析或預測，是基於今天的市場情況，而不是在逾期率上升的環境，或更正常的逾期環境下。而且是的，這對我們來說是一項非常獲利的業務。

Got it. And then on the cost base. So, clearly there were, you had some cost cuts in, that's also, that contributed and the increase in revenues contributed to the increase in profitability. Are you done with the cost cuts or your cost base currently? Is that to stay? Or there are more cost cuts to come more? We haven't seen some.

了解。接著談成本基礎。很明顯，你們做了一些成本削減，這也有所貢獻，而營收的增加也促成了獲利能力的提升。你們的成本削減已經做完了嗎？或你們目前的成本基礎會維持在這個水準嗎？還是接下來還會有更多成本削減？我們還沒看到一些。

Yes. So, let's talk just first about on the corporate side, there were some one-time benefits we got in the first quarter. But even if you normalize for those one-time benefits, we still brought the cost down compared to the fourth quarter. So, we won't, we're not anticipating those one-time benefits to continue in future quarters. I think there's some modest and Michelle jump in savings in corporate in the second half of the year. Michelle?

是的。那我們先談公司端，第一季我們取得了一些一次性的利益。但即使把那些一次性利益正常化調整後，我們的成本相較第四季仍然下降。因此，我們不預期那些一次性利益會在未來季度持續。我認為今年下半年公司端會有一些小幅的節省，Michelle 也可以補充一下。Michelle？

That's right. In corporate tax within the technology and communications line.

沒錯。在公司稅務方面，屬於科技與通訊這條線。

So, I think you'll see a little bit of savings there, maybe just a little bit in occupancy as well, a modest amount, but for the most part, I think, we don't have any new set of initiatives beyond what's already been planned for the rest of the year.

所以，我想你會在那裡看到一些節省，另外在辦公空間占用（occupancy）方面可能也會有一點點、幅度不大；但大致上，我認為除了今年剩餘時間已經規劃好的事項之外，我們沒有新的倡議要推動。

And then when you look at the business units, Raj, there will be a little bit of a ramping up some costs in the second quarter in anticipation of what we think is going to be very meaningful growth going into a third and fourth quarter. But that would just be sort of a norm. You would expect there's going to be some hiring in advance of that revenue coming in the second quarter.

然後再看各事業單位，Raj，第二季會有一些成本小幅拉升，因為我們預期第三、第四季將出現非常顯著的成長。但那只是正常情況。你會預期在第二季、在營收進來之前會先有一些招募。

So, we expect some modest revenue growth in Q2 compared to Q1. But EBITDA, there will be a modest impact to EBITDA, given some of the hiring in advance of this revenue getting to us sort of a stabilized level. But we think that's very good hiring, and certainly in line with our margin expectations, the new business is certainly in line with our margin expectations.

因此，我們預期第二季營收相較第一季會有一些溫和成長。但由於在營收達到較穩定水準之前先行招募，EBITDA 會受到一些溫和影響。不過我們認為這些招募非常值得，而且確實符合我們對利潤率的預期；新業務也確實符合我們的利潤率預期。

Got it. And just a couple of more questions you can bear with me. The new, you obviously did, you are focusing on the earlier stage of the foreclosure process, you're having wins there. There is the normal run rate scenario that you have talked about in the past, $45 million of EBITDA and $235 million of revenues. How does that change incrementally by this $88 million?

了解。再問幾個問題，請你們見諒。新的部分，你們顯然把重點放在法拍流程較早期的階段，而且在那裡有所斬獲。你們過去談過的正常運行率情境是 EBITDA 4,500 萬美元、營收 2.35 億美元。在新增這 8,800 萬美元的情況下，這會如何逐步（incrementally）改變？

Yes, Raj, I think that's a very good question. Look, we did a bit of a back of the envelope and there's, of course, several assumptions that go into how we think about this. But if the market were also to get back to normal. And now we're assuming that our anchor portfolios, they continue to run off over the next couple of years.

是的，Raj，我覺得這是個很好的問題。你看，我們做了一些粗略估算，當然其中包含幾個我們用來思考的假設。但如果市場也回到正常。而且我們現在假設，我們的核心（anchor）投資組合在未來幾年會持續自然到期／縮減（run off）。

And we're also assuming a little bit of a churn on our pre-pandemic legacy business. If you take that into consideration and we're back to a normal operating environment, roughly at normal at pre-pandemic delinquency levels. We think EBITDA could grow by as much as what Michelle close to$20 million $25 million, closer to $25 million.

我們也假設疫情前的既有（legacy）業務會有一些流失（churn）。把這些因素納入考量，並且回到正常營運環境，大致回到疫情前逾期水準的正常狀態。我們認為 EBITDA 可能成長多達——Michelle，大概接近 2,000 萬到 2,500 萬美元，更接近 2,500 萬美元。

And your revenue would grow by as much as $60 million above the scenario we presented today. So, there's a lot of upside even, if delinquency rates just stay at the historically low levels, but the market gets back to normal. The foreclosure initiations and foreclosure sale conversion rates gets back to normal.

而營收則可能在我們今天提出的情境之上再增加多達 6,000 萬美元。所以即使逾期率只是維持在歷史低檔，但市場回到正常，仍有很大的上行空間。也就是法拍啟動量以及法拍出售轉換率回到正常。

There's a lot of upside. In addition, our scenario we presented today doesn't include sales that take place beyond April 20th, as we continue to win new business that should improve our performance as well. We are just isolating the first quarter and pro forma analyzing the sales wins we've already had.

上行空間很大。此外，我們今天提出的情境不包含 4 月 20 日之後發生的銷售，因為我們持續贏得新業務，這也應該會改善我們的表現。我們只是把第一季單獨抽出來，並對我們已經拿下的銷售勝利做備考（pro forma）分析。

Got it. Thank you for that. That's really good color. Thank you for taking my questions. I'll take this offline. Thank you.

了解。謝謝你的說明。這些補充資訊非常有幫助。謝謝你回答我的問題。我會私下再跟進。謝謝。

Thank you, Raj.

謝謝你，Raj。

Thank you. I am showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Will Shepro for closing remarks.

謝謝。我這邊顯示目前沒有其他提問。接下來我想把時間交回給 Will Shepro 做結語。

Great, thanks, operator. We're very pleased with our first quarter financial performance and believe we're well positioned for the rest of this year and beyond., and thanks for joining today.

很好，謝謝接線員。我們對第一季的財務表現非常滿意，並相信我們已為今年剩餘時間以及未來做好良好布局。感謝今天的參與。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。本次議程到此結束。您現在可以掛線。