Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A. (ASPS) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Altisource third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    各位好,感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 Altisource 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)請注意,今天的會議將被錄音。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to Michelle Esterman, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

    現在我想把會議交給財務長 Michelle Esterman。請開始。

  • Michelle Esterman - CFO

    Michelle Esterman - CFO

  • Thank you, operator.

    謝謝,接線員。

  • We first of all remind you that the earnings release, Form 10-K, and quarterly slides are available on our website at www.altisource.com. These provide additional information investors may find useful.

    首先提醒各位,我們的財報新聞稿、Form 10-K,以及季度簡報投影片可於我們網站 www.altisource.com 取得。這些資料提供投資人可能覺得有用的補充資訊。

  • Our remarks today include forward-looking statements, which involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. In addition to the usual uncertainty associated with forward-looking statements, the continuing impact of government and service are responsive to the COVID pandemic together with the current economic environment, making it extremely difficult to predict the future state of the economy and the industries in which we operate, as well as the potential impact on Altisource.

    我們今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述,涉及多項風險與不確定性,可能導致實際結果有所差異。除前瞻性陳述通常伴隨的不確定性外,政府與服務因應 COVID 疫情的持續影響,加上目前的經濟環境,使得極難預測未來的經濟狀態與我們所處產業的走向,以及對 Altisource 的潛在影響。

  • Please review the forward-looking statement sections in the company's earning release and quarterly slides as well as the risk factors contained in our 2022 Form 10-K and 2023 Form 10-Qs, which describe factors that may lead to different results. We undertake no obligation to update statements, financial scenarios, and projections previously provided or provided herein as a result of a change in circumstances, new information, or future events.

    請查閱公司財報新聞稿與季度簡報投影片中的前瞻性陳述章節,以及我們 2022 年 Form 10-K 與 2023 年 Form 10-Q 中所載的風險因素,這些內容描述了可能導致結果不同的因素。因情勢變化、新資訊或未來事件,我們對於更新先前提供或於本文提供之陳述、財務情境與預測不負任何義務。

  • During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. In our earnings release and quarterly slides, you will find additional disclosures regarding [the] non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in the appendix to the quarterly slide.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將同時呈現 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。在我們的財報新聞稿與季度簡報投影片中,您可找到關於非 GAAP 指標的額外揭露。GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標之調節表收錄於季度簡報投影片的附錄。

  • Joining me for today's call is Bill Shepro, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Bill.

    今天與我一同參與電話會議的還有我們的董事長兼執行長 Bill Shepro。接下來我把電話交給 Bill。

  • Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

    Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

  • Thanks, Michelle, and good morning.

    謝謝,Michelle,大家早安。

  • I'll begin on slide 4. We are pleased with our third quarter performance. For the quarter, we generated $874,000 of adjusted EBITDA, a $4.4 million improvement over the second quarter of 2023 and a $7.3 million improvement over the same quarter in 2022.

    我先從第 4 頁投影片開始。我們對第三季的表現感到滿意。本季我們創造了 87.4 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA,較 2023 年第二季改善 440 萬美元,較 2022 年同期改善 730 萬美元。

  • For the first nine months of 2023, we improved adjusted EBITDA by $16.1 million compared to the same period last year. Based on our current forecast, we anticipate positive company-wide adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter and full year.

    2023 年前九個月,我們的調整後 EBITDA 較去年同期改善 1,610 萬美元。根據我們目前的預測,我們預期第四季及全年公司整體的調整後 EBITDA 將為正數。

  • Turning to slide 5. During the quarter, we generated $18.4 million in net proceeds from the sale of equity and used $10 million of the proceeds to reduce the principal balance of our term loan. As a result of the debt reduction, we eliminated 966,000 penny warrants, [can] exercise an option to extend the maturity date of our term loan and revolver by one year to April 2026, and we'll save an estimated $3.4 million per year in interest expense.

    接著看第 5 頁投影片。本季我們透過出售股權取得 1,840 萬美元的淨收益,並使用其中 1,000 萬美元來降低定期貸款的本金餘額。由於降低負債,我們取消了 966,000 份一分錢(penny)認股權證,並可行使選擇權將定期貸款與循環信貸(revolver)的到期日延長一年至 2026 年 4 月,同時預估每年可節省約 340 萬美元的利息費用。

  • Extending the maturity date of loan is subject to customary conditions and the payment of an extension fee as described in our 10-Q. We ended the quarter with $36 0.6 million in cash and cash equivalents.

    延長貸款到期日須符合慣常條件,並支付我們在 10-Q 中所述的延長費用。本季末我們持有 3,606 萬美元的現金及約當現金。

  • We continue to position Altisource to take advantage of what we see a significant potential opportunities with existing and new customers in both of our segments over the coming years as the default market continues to normalize and we gain traction with our newer solutions that strengthen Lenders One members performance.

    我們持續讓 Altisource 做好布局,以把握未來數年在兩大業務部門中、來自既有與新客戶的重大潛在機會;隨著違約市場持續回歸常態,以及我們較新的解決方案逐步取得進展、強化 Lenders One 會員的績效。

  • As you can see on slide 6, our sales pipeline and wins in both of our segments remained strong. Our consolidated weighted average pipeline at the end of the third quarter was an estimated $46 million of annual revenue on a stabilized basis, representing 34% of our annualized third quarter 2023 revenue.

    如第 6 頁投影片所示,我們兩大業務部門的銷售管線與得標情況仍然強勁。第三季末,我們合併加權平均管線在穩定化基礎下估計可帶來 4,600 萬美元的年收入,相當於我們 2023 年第三季年化營收的 34%。

  • We are also winning new business. Since last quarter, we won business that we estimate will generate $16.9 million of annual revenue on a stabilized basis. During the third quarter, we continue to onboard and gross sales wins from 2022 and 2023, which combined are now at a $13.7 million annualized revenue run rate.

    我們也持續贏得新業務。自上季以來,我們贏得的業務在穩定化基礎下估計可帶來 1,690 萬美元的年收入。第三季期間,我們持續導入並放量 2022 年與 2023 年的總銷售得標案,兩者合計目前的年化營收 run rate 已達 1,370 萬美元。

  • Turning to slide 7 and our countercyclical servicer and real estate segment. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $10 million was $2.9 million or 42% higher than the same quarter in 2022. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA margins improved to 37% from 24% in the third quarter of last year.

    接著看第 7 頁,以及我們的逆循環(countercyclical)服務商與不動產部門。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 1,000 萬美元,較 2022 年同期增加 290 萬美元或 42%。第三季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率由去年第三季的 24% 提升至 37%。

  • Adjusted EBITDA growth and margin improvement reflect product mix and cost reduction and efficiency initiatives, partially offset by lower revenue. The service revenue decline was primarily from our fourth quarter '22 exit of a low margin employee outsource business and fewer referrals in our lower margin field services business.

    調整後 EBITDA 成長與利潤率改善反映了產品組合,以及成本降低與效率提升措施,但部分被營收下降所抵銷。服務營收下滑主要來自我們於 2022 年第四季退出一項低利潤的員工外包業務,以及在我們利潤率較低的現場服務(field services)業務中轉介量減少。

  • We also believe that the default market is continuing to recover, as evidenced by recent year-over-year growth in referral volume in our pre-foreclosure title and foreclosure trustee products. Both pre-foreclosure title and first-lien foreclosure trustee referrals were 42% higher for September 1, through October 20, compared to the same period in 2022.

    我們也認為違約市場正在持續復甦,這可從我們在法拍前產權(pre-foreclosure title)與法拍受託人(foreclosure trustee)產品的轉介量近期年增中看出。以 9 月 1 日至 10 月 20 日與 2022 年同期相比,法拍前產權與第一順位(first-lien)法拍受託人轉介量均高出 42%。

  • For 2023, we anticipate that our servicer and real estate segment will have higher adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins compared to last year.

    對於 2023 年,我們預期服務商與不動產部門的調整後 EBITDA 與調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將高於去年。

  • Moving to slide 8 and our servicer and real estate sales pipeline and wins. At the end of third quarter, our weighted average pipeline totaled $25.6 million of annual revenue on a stabilized basis.

    接著看第 8 頁,以及我們服務商與不動產部門的銷售管線與得標情況。第三季末,我們的加權平均管線在穩定化基礎下合計為 2,560 萬美元的年收入。

  • The pipeline decline compared to the prior quarter, primarily because we converted an estimated $15.3 million of a pipeline into third quarter sales wins. One of the more notable third quarter wins was the signing of a master services agreement and a statement of work to provide REO asset management, brokerage, auction, valuation, and field services on a portion of a reverse mortgage servicers, REO portfolio.

    相較前一季,管線下降主要是因為我們將估計 1,530 萬美元的管線轉化為第三季的銷售得標。其中較值得注意的第三季得標案之一,是簽署一份主服務協議(master services agreement)與工作說明書(statement of work),為某家反向抵押貸款服務商的部分 REO 投資組合提供 REO 資產管理、仲介、拍賣、估價與現場服務。

  • On a stabilized basis, we estimate that this new business represents $12.8 million in annual revenue and a $3 million to $5 million per year in adjusted EBITDA. We began receiving referrals in September and anticipate that we'll reach revenue and earnings stabilization by the middle of 2024, if not sooner.

    在穩定化基礎下,我們估計這項新業務代表每年 1,280 萬美元的營收,以及每年 300 萬至 500 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。我們已於 9 月開始接收轉介,並預期在 2024 年年中前(甚至更早)達到營收與獲利的穩定化。

  • Turning to the macroeconomic environment and slide 9. During the pandemic, consumers benefited from stimulus checks, the suspension of mortgage and student loan payments, and a historically low interest rate environment. As a result, consumer savings reached an all-time high, delinquencies declined, credit scores improved, and home values appreciated.

    接著談宏觀經濟環境與第 9 頁投影片。在疫情期間,消費者受惠於紓困支票、暫停房貸與學貸還款,以及歷史低利率環境。因此,消費者儲蓄達到歷史新高,逾期率下降,信用分數改善,房價上漲。

  • Since early 2022, mortgage for foreclosure moratoriums and forbearance programs ended, borrowing costs soared, and just this month, student loan payments resumed. As a result, consumer savings declined to 3.9% in August 2023 from 26% in March of 2021. Credit card debt is at a record high. 401(k) hardship withdrawals were 36% higher in the second quarter of '23 compared to the same quarter in 2022. And auto and credit card delinquencies continue to rise.

    自 2022 年初以來,房貸法拍禁令與寬限(forbearance)計畫結束,借款成本飆升,而就在本月,學貸還款也已恢復。因此,消費者儲蓄率自 2021 年 3 月的 26% 降至 2023 年 8 月的 3.9%。信用卡債務創下歷史新高。2023 年第二季 401(k) 困難提領(hardship withdrawals)較 2022 年同期高出 36%。汽車貸款與信用卡逾期仍持續上升。

  • Early-stage mortgage delinquency rates are also rising. Comparing September to June 2023, 9.4% more mortgages are delinquent by one payment and 10.7% more mortgages are behind by two payments.

    房貸早期逾期率也在上升。比較 2023 年 9 月與 2023 年 6 月,逾期 1 期付款的房貸增加 9.4%,逾期 2 期付款的房貸增加 10.7%。

  • The cracks in the housing market are beginning to appear. For September 2023, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of home sales are down 15.4% compared to September 2022. And the medium home sale price in September has declined since June 2023. So there are still up to 2.8% compared to September 2022. This is typical in the early stages of a housing downturn. At first denial, followed by capitulation.

    房市的裂痕開始浮現。以 2023 年 9 月為例,經季節調整後的年化房屋銷售率較 2022 年 9 月下降 15.4%。此外,9 月的房屋銷售價格中位數自 2023 年 6 月以來已下滑。不過相較 2022 年 9 月仍高出 2.8%。這在房市下行的早期階段很典型:先是否認,接著是投降式拋售(capitulation)。

  • Home affordability, which is highly correlated to home prices recently reached to near 40-year low. Our recent CNN Business article explain that for home affordability to return to the 25 year average, home prices would need to drop by 28%, interest rates would need to declined by 400 basis points, or income would need to increase price 60% or some combination thereof.

    住房可負擔性(與房價高度相關)近期已接近 40 年低點。我們近期的 CNN Business 文章指出,若要讓住房可負擔性回到 25 年平均水準,房價需下跌 28%,利率需下降 400 個基點,或收入需增加 60%,或上述因素的某種組合。

  • Naturally, an increase in unemployment would accelerate this correction and result in increased delinquencies and foreclosures, particularly for low down payment mortgages and those loans that were originated over the last couple of years. We estimate that for every 1% increase in 30-day delinquency rates, the addressable market for our default services would increase by $700 million.

    當然,若失業率上升,將加速這波修正,並導致逾期與法拍增加,特別是低頭期款房貸,以及過去幾年內承作的貸款。我們估計,30 天逾期率每上升 1%,我們違約服務的可服務市場(addressable market)將增加 7 億美元。

  • Turning to slide 10 and our origination segment. We performed well in a difficult origination environment. Third quarter revenue was roughly flat and adjusted EBITDA improved by $1.3 million over the same period in 2022 despite a 10% decline in industry wide origination volume. Revenue reflects customer wins from our newer Lenders One solutions, which are designed to help our members save money, partially offset by our other origination businesses, which were impacted by continued challenges in the market.

    接著看第 10 頁以及我們的承作(origination)事業部。我們在艱困的承作環境中表現良好。第三季營收大致持平,儘管全產業承作量較 2022 年同期下滑 10%,調整後 EBITDA 仍較 2022 年同期改善 130 萬美元。營收反映我們較新的 Lenders One 解決方案所帶來的客戶勝出,該等方案旨在協助會員節省成本;但部分被我們其他承作業務所抵銷,後者仍受市場持續挑戰影響。

  • For 2023, we anticipate our originations segment service revenue to outperform the MBA's forecasted 29% decline in the origination market and adjusted EBITDA to improve compared to 2022 from sales momentum in our Lenders One business and cost savings and efficiency initiatives across the segment.

    就 2023 年而言,我們預期承作事業部的服務營收表現將優於 MBA(美國抵押貸款銀行家協會)對承作市場下滑 29% 的預測,且調整後 EBITDA 將較 2022 年改善,主要受惠於 Lenders One 業務的銷售動能,以及本事業部推動的成本節省與效率提升措施。

  • Slide 11 provides a summary of origination segment sales pipeline and wins. During a very difficult origination market, we remain focused on increasing adoption of our solutions that help our Lenders One members save money. Our weighted average sales pipeline as of September 30, is $20.4 million of annual revenue on a stabilized basis.

    第 11 頁彙總了承作事業部的銷售管線與得標情況。在非常艱困的承作市場中,我們仍專注於提升可協助 Lenders One 會員節省成本之解決方案的採用率。截至 9 月 30 日,我們的加權平均銷售管線在穩態基礎下相當於 2,040 萬美元的年化營收。

  • We won an estimated $1.7 million in new business during the third quarter. From our 2022 and first half of the year 2023 sales wins, we recognized approximately $2.8 million of revenue in the third quarter or $11.1 million of revenue on an annualized basis.

    我們在第三季贏得估計 170 萬美元的新業務。就我們於 2022 年及 2023 年上半年取得的銷售勝出而言,我們在第三季認列約 280 萬美元營收,折算年化營收為 1,110 萬美元。

  • Moving to our corporate segment in slide 12, we continue to maintain cost discipline. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA loss in the corporate segment of $8.7 million was $3.1 million or 26% better than the same quarter in 2022. For the year, we anticipate the corporate adjusted EBITDA loss to improve compared to 2022. This reflects our July cost cutting and efficiency plan.

    接著看第 12 頁的公司(corporate)事業部,我們持續維持成本紀律。公司事業部第三季調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 870 萬美元,較 2022 年同季改善 310 萬美元或 26%。就全年而言,我們預期公司事業部調整後 EBITDA 虧損將較 2022 年改善,反映我們 7 月的成本削減與效率計畫。

  • To conclude, we continue to improve our adjusted EBITDA results. Our third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $7.3 million better than the same period in 2022 and year to date, adjusted EBITDA is $16.1 million better than the same period last year. Our sales pipeline and wins remain strong, and we continue to aggressively manage our expenses.

    總結而言,我們持續改善調整後 EBITDA 表現。第三季調整後 EBITDA 較 2022 年同期改善 730 萬美元;年初至今,調整後 EBITDA 較去年同期改善 1,610 萬美元。我們的銷售管線與得標仍然強勁,並持續積極管理費用。

  • We believe the strength of our sales wins and pipeline, cost savings initiatives, normalization of the default market and consumer weakness, positions Altisource for positive adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter and full year and attractive growth as we look to 2024 with potential upside of mortgage delinquency rates rise.

    我們相信,強勁的銷售勝出與管線、成本節省措施、違約市場的常態化以及消費者疲弱情勢,使 Altisource 具備在第四季與全年達成正向調整後 EBITDA 的條件,並在展望 2024 年時實現具吸引力的成長;若房貸逾期率上升,仍有潛在上行空間。

  • I'll now open up the call for questions.

    接下來我將開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. We will now conduct the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

    謝謝。我們現在進行問答環節。(接線員指示)

  • Raj Sharma, B. Riley.

    Raj Sharma,B. Riley。

  • Raj Sharma - Analyst

    Raj Sharma - Analyst

  • Hi. Thank you for taking my question. Really good results; big congratulations on the improvement in the EBITDA.

    嗨,謝謝讓我提問。成果真的很好;EBITDA 的改善幅度很大,恭喜。

  • I had a question on industry wide foreclosure -- starts of sales. There seems to be a -- maybe some early shoots of improvement. Also days in foreclosure seemingly dropped pretty considerable relative to earlier part of the year from 1,200 days down to 700. Is that indicative of anything -- of an improvement in the space in --? And could you comment -- could you give a little bit more color on that?

    我想問一個關於全產業法拍(foreclosure)——啟動出售(starts of sales)的問題。看起來似乎——也許有一些早期改善的跡象。另外,法拍天數似乎相較於今年稍早大幅下降,從 1,200 天降到 700 天。這是否代表——這個領域有任何改善的指標——?你們能否評論一下——能否提供更多細節說明?

  • And of course, the early delinquencies are rising. And how soon could that start showing up more significantly in your results, you think?

    當然,早期逾期也在上升。你認為這會多快開始在你們的業績中更顯著地反映出來?

  • Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

    Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

  • Hey, Raj, this is Bill. Thanks for your questions.

    嗨,Raj,我是 Bill。謝謝你的提問。

  • So I think we are seeing early indications that delinquency rates, particularly 30 and 60 days are starting to rise. That's a pretty significant increase just from a couple of months ago.

    我認為我們確實看到逾期率的早期跡象正在上升,特別是 30 天與 60 天逾期。相較於幾個月前,這是相當顯著的增加。

  • And we're also seeing here to bring it home, if you will, in our foreclosure trustee business and our insured title search and foreclosure information report business, which are title searches related to the start of a foreclosure. We saw a 42% increase in the month of September and month to date in October in referrals compared to the same time last year.

    另外,回到我們自身業務來看,在我們的法拍受託(foreclosure trustee)業務,以及我們的保險產權查詢與法拍資訊報告業務(這些是與法拍啟動相關的產權查詢)中,我們看到 9 月以及 10 月截至目前的轉介量(referrals)相較去年同期增加了 42%。

  • And the reason why we focused on September and October is, earlier in the month we got some benefit from the restart in California, so we wanted to normalize for that. So it does appear that both industry-wide and at Altisource, we're starting to see an increase in the earlier stage activities and referrals. And this could be a precursor over time as those foreclosures work through the system for an increase in our higher margin -- well, in our high-margin REO auction business or Hubzu.

    我們之所以聚焦 9 月與 10 月,是因為本月稍早我們從加州重啟中獲得一些助益,因此希望將該因素常態化調整。整體來看,無論在全產業或在 Altisource,我們似乎都開始看到較早期階段的活動與轉介量增加。隨著這些法拍案件逐步在系統中推進,這可能會隨時間成為我們高毛利——也就是我們高毛利 REO 拍賣業務(Hubzu)——增加的前兆。

  • Raj Sharma - Analyst

    Raj Sharma - Analyst

  • Great.

    很好。

  • And then another question is on your recently announced the cost cuts, $13.5 million. Could you give any sort of progress on that or any comments on the ongoing cost cuts?

    另外一個問題是關於你們近期宣布的成本削減 1,350 萬美元。你們能否提供任何進度更新,或對持續進行的成本削減有任何評論?

  • Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

    Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

  • Sure. Yeah. I think today we're at about $10.5 million a year of annualized savings. I think we achieved about a $900,000 of savings in the month of September. We should be -- Michelle roughly at $12 million or $12.5 million of savings by the end of the year and then the balance of the savings, the other, the additional $1 million, $1.5 will come on the second half of next year?

    當然。是的。我想目前我們大約已達到每年年化節省 1,050 萬美元。我們在 9 月大約實現了 90 萬美元的節省。到年底我們應該——Michelle——大約可達到 1,200 萬或 1,250 萬美元的節省;其餘的節省,也就是另外 100 萬到 150 萬美元,將在明年下半年實現?

  • Michelle Esterman - CFO

    Michelle Esterman - CFO

  • That's right.

    沒錯。

  • Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

    Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

  • So we're making very good progress with that initiative.

    因此我們在這項計畫上進展非常順利。

  • Raj Sharma - Analyst

    Raj Sharma - Analyst

  • Great. Yeah. Thank you. I'll go back in line. I have no question.

    很好。是的,謝謝。我回到隊列。我沒有其他問題了。

  • Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

    Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

  • Great. Thanks, Raj.

    很好。謝謝你,Raj。

  • Raj Sharma - Analyst

    Raj Sharma - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

    謝謝。(接線員指示)

  • Mike Grondahl, Northland Securities.

    Mike Grondahl,Northland Securities。

  • Mike Grondahl - Analyst

    Mike Grondahl - Analyst

  • Hey Bill and Michelle. Two questions. One, could you just talk a little bit about any visibility you have on an increase in Hubzu inventory or when you think that may begin to inflect?

    嗨 Bill 和 Michelle。兩個問題。第一,你們能否談談對 Hubzu 庫存增加的能見度,或你們認為何時可能開始出現拐點?

  • And then secondly, just in sort of a base case for '24, what do you sort of think of as potential cash flow or cash usage, just in a base case for '24?

    第二,就 2024 年的基本情境而言,你們對潛在現金流或現金使用(cash usage)大概怎麼看?就基本情境來說。

  • Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

    Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

  • Hi, Mike. It's Bill.

    嗨,Mike。我是 Bill。

  • So with respect to Hubzu inventory, we spend a lot of time looking at how that business is performing. And clearly, it takes time for those new foreclosure initiations that increased quite substantially in the first quarter of 2022 to work their way through that system and get to the end. And we're also monitoring the conversion rate, what percentage of those foreclosures are actually converting to REO.

    關於 Hubzu 庫存,我們花很多時間觀察該業務的表現。很明顯,2022 年第一季大幅增加的新法拍啟動案件,需要時間在系統中逐步推進並走到最後。我們也在監控轉換率,也就是這些法拍中有多少比例實際轉為 REO。

  • And given what's going on with the economy for all the reasons we talked about when we discussed the macroeconomic environment and home affordability, we do think over time, as those foreclosures continue through that process, that conversion rate will return in certainly closer to what it looked like prior to the pandemic.

    考量經濟情勢,以及我們在討論總體經濟環境與房屋可負擔性時提到的各項原因,我們確實認為,隨著時間推移,當這些法拍案件持續走完流程,轉換率將回升,並且更接近疫情前的水準。

  • And so then it's just a matter of how long it takes for those -- that is increase in foreclosures from the first quarter of 2022 to work its way through the system. I think we've been guiding people that it's typically about 24 months and in some states it's faster and other states, it's slower to get through the foreclosure. And then typically, it's another six months to sell the REO.

    因此,接下來就是這些——也就是 2022 年第一季法拍增加——需要多久才能在系統中走完。我們一直向大家說明,通常大約需要 24 個月;在某些州更快,在其他州則更慢,才能完成法拍流程。之後通常還需要再 6 個月才能出售 REO。

  • So those increase in foreclosure initiations typically take about 24 months to get to the sale and another -- to the foreclosure auction, another six months to be sold. So we should start to see increase going into next year from those first quarter of 2022 initiations.

    因此,這些法拍啟動的增加通常約需 24 個月才能走到出售、並進入法拍拍賣(foreclosure auction),再加上約 6 個月完成出售。所以,來自 2022 年第一季啟動案件的影響,我們應該會在明年開始看到增加。

  • In terms of a cash flow for next year, Mike, we're not providing guidance. What I will say is we're making very good progress, improving the earnings for the company. In the third quarter, I was very pleased to see consistent positive [EBITDA] each month and [EBITDA] improved each month.

    至於明年的現金流,Mike,我們不提供指引。我能說的是,我們在改善公司獲利方面進展非常好。第三季我很高興看到每個月都持續呈現正向的 [EBITDA],而且 [EBITDA] 每個月都有改善。

  • In the fourth quarter, you typically would see, it's a seasonally slower period. I think our revenue will be roughly in line with where it was in the third quarter, but higher than the fourth quarter of last year. And we think our EBITDA is going to continue to improve, setting us up for a good run rate going into 2024.

    第四季通常是季節性較慢的期間。我認為我們的營收大致會與第三季相當,但會高於去年第四季。我們也認為 EBITDA 將持續改善,讓我們在進入 2024 年時具備良好的運行水準(run rate)。

  • [We lose you], Mike?

    [我們聽不到你了],Mike?

  • Hey operator, I'm not sure if there's any additional questions.

    嗨,接線員,我不確定是否還有其他問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (接線員指示)

  • I am showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the conference over to Bill for final remarks.

    我這邊顯示沒有其他問題。現在我想把會議交回給 Bill 作最後結語。

  • Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

    Bill Shepro - Chairman and CEO

  • Yeah. Thanks for joining today's call. We appreciate your support, and we're very pleased with the progress we're making in improving the EBITDA at the company and growing our -- and strengthening our sales pipeline. Talk to you soon. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝各位參加今天的電話會議。我們感謝各位的支持,也很高興看到我們在改善公司 EBITDA 與擴大——並強化我們的銷售管線方面所取得的進展。很快再與各位聯繫。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。