Altisource Portfolio Solutions S.A. (ASPS) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day. And thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Altisource Portfolio Solutions third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

大家好。感謝各位稍候。歡迎參加 Altisource Portfolio Solutions 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

(接線員指示) 請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Michelle Esterman, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.

現在我想把會議交給今天的第一位講者，財務長 Michelle Esterman。請開始。

Thank you, operator. We first want to remind you that the earnings release Form 10-Q and quarterly slides are available on our website at www.ir.altisource.com. These provide additional information, investors may find useful.

謝謝，接線員。我們首先想提醒各位，財報新聞稿、10-Q 表格以及季度簡報投影片已公布於我們的網站 www.ir.altisource.com。這些資料提供投資人可能覺得有用的額外資訊。

Our remarks today include forward-looking statements which involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. Financial projections and scenarios are expressly qualified as forward-looking statements and as with other forward-looking statements should not be unduly relied upon.

我們今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述，涉及多項風險與不確定性，可能導致實際結果有所差異。財務預測與情境分析明確屬於前瞻性陳述；與其他前瞻性陳述相同，不應過度依賴。

In addition to the usual uncertainty associated with forward-looking statements, the continuing impacts of government and service or responses to the COVID 19 pandemic, governmental fiscal policies and current economic conditions make it extremely difficult to predict the future state of the economy and the industries in which we operate, as well as the potential impact on Altisource.

除前瞻性陳述通常伴隨的不確定性外，政府與服務機構對 COVID-19 疫情的持續影響或因應措施、政府財政政策以及目前的經濟狀況，使得極難預測未來的經濟情勢與我們所處產業的狀態，以及對 Altisource 的潛在影響。

Please review the forward-looking statements sections in the company's earnings release and quarterly slides as well as the risk factors contained in our 2023 Form 10-K, describing some factors that may lead to different results. We undertake no obligation to update statements, financial scenarios and projections previously provided or provided herein as a result of a change in circumstances, new information or future events. During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.

請查閱公司財報新聞稿與季度投影片中的前瞻性陳述章節，以及我們 2023 年 10-K 表格中的風險因素，當中描述了可能導致結果不同的部分因素。因情勢變化、新資訊或未來事件而對先前提供或於本文提供之陳述、財務情境與預測進行更新，我們不承擔任何義務。在本次電話會議中，我們將同時呈現 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。

In our earnings release and quarterly slides, you will find additional disclosures regarding the non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in the appendix to the quarterly slides.

在我們的財報新聞稿與季度投影片中，您將可找到關於非 GAAP 指標的額外揭露。GAAP 與非 GAAP 指標之調節表收錄於季度投影片的附錄。

Joining me for today's call is Will Shepro, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. I'll now turn the call over to Will.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的還有我們的董事長兼執行長 Will Shepro。接下來我把電話會議交給 Will。

Thanks Michelle and good Morning. I'll begin on slide 4. We had another solid quarter demonstrating our resilience in a challenging market. We grew service revenue both sequentially and year-over-year, despite a 15% decline in average serious delinquency rates, a 7% decline in foreclosure initiations and a 14% decline in foreclosure sales through August this year, compared to the same period last year.

謝謝 Michelle，早安。我將從第 4 頁投影片開始。在充滿挑戰的市場中，我們又交出一個穩健的季度，展現了我們的韌性。儘管平均嚴重逾期率下降 15%、法拍啟動件數下降 7%，且截至今年 8 月的法拍成交量較去年同期下降 14%，我們的服務營收仍較前一季與去年同期成長。

For the quarter, we generated $38.2 million in service revenue, a $4 million or 11.8% increase over the same period last year.

本季我們創造了 3,820 萬美元的服務營收，較去年同期增加 400 萬美元或 11.8%。

This growth primarily reflects sales wins and represents our strongest quarterly service revenue performance in 12 quarters. Compared to last quarter. Service revenue grew by $1.3 million or 3.5%, primarily from ramping sales wins.

這項成長主要反映了銷售得標，並代表我們在 12 個季度以來最強的單季服務營收表現。相較於上一季，服務營收增加 130 萬美元或 3.5%，主要來自得標案的逐步放量。

We generated $3.6 million of adjusted EBITDA for the quarter, a $2.8 million improvement over the third quarter 2023 and an $800,000 decline compared to last quarter. The adjusted EBITDA results compared to last year benefited from higher service revenue, lower corporate costs and margin expansion in the origination segment. Partially offset by approximately $1.2 million of higher SG&A costs in the service earned real estate segment from legacy indemnity claims and bad debt expense.

本季我們創造了 360 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，較 2023 年第三季改善 280 萬美元，較上一季則減少 80 萬美元。相較去年，調整後 EBITDA 受惠於較高的服務營收、較低的公司成本，以及房貸起源（origination）部門的利潤率擴張。部分被服務商與不動產部門中，因歷史賠償（indemnity）索賠與壞帳費用導致約 120 萬美元較高的 SG&A 成本所抵銷。

Adjusted EBITDA results compared to the second quarter were impacted by approximately $800,000 of higher SG&A costs in the servicer and real estate segment from legacy indemnity claims and bad debt expense, partially offset by margin expansion in the origination segment.

相較第二季，調整後 EBITDA 受到服務商與不動產部門中，因歷史賠償索賠與壞帳費用導致約 80 萬美元較高的 SG&A 成本影響；部分由房貸起源部門的利潤率擴張所抵銷。

Adjusted EBITDA in each period was also impacted by a change in revenue mix from fewer homes sold in our higher margin, Hubzu business and growth in our lower margin field services and recently launched renovation businesses. We anticipate the margins in the renovation business will improve as it scales. We ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $28.3 million.

各期間的調整後 EBITDA 亦受到營收組合變化影響，原因包括我們高毛利的 Hubzu 業務售屋量減少，以及低毛利的現場服務（field services）與近期推出的整修（renovation）業務成長。我們預期整修業務的利潤率將隨規模擴大而改善。本季期末，我們的現金及約當現金為 2,830 萬美元。

Slide 5, provides additional information on our total company financial performance. The year to day trends are positive. Service revenue is $7.5 million higher than last year and adjusted EBITDA is $13.8 million higher than last year. Adjusted EBITDA margins improved to 11.3% compared to negative 1.1% for the same period in 2023. The improvement in service revenue compared to last year was primarily driven by sales wins and price increases for certain services.

第 5 頁投影片提供我們全公司財務表現的更多資訊。年初至今的趨勢為正向。服務營收較去年增加 750 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 較去年增加 1,380 萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 利潤率提升至 11.3%，而 2023 年同期為負 1.1%。相較去年，服務營收的改善主要由銷售得標以及部分服務的價格調升所帶動。

The adjusted EBITDA improvement and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion compared to last year was primarily driven by higher service revenue, business segment margin expansion and lower corporate costs partially offset by $1.8 million of higher SG&A expenses and service revenue mix that I just discussed.

相較去年，調整後 EBITDA 的改善與調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴張，主要由較高的服務營收、各業務部門利潤率擴張以及較低的公司成本所帶動；部分被我剛才提到的 SG&A 費用增加 180 萬美元以及服務營收組合所抵銷。

Looking to the fourth quarter and full year. We anticipate strong service revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth over 2023, as we ramp sales wins on our more efficient and lower cost base. Despite the anticipated strong improvement compared to last year, we are forecasting that we are going to achieve close to the low end of our guidance.

展望第四季與全年。隨著我們在更有效率、成本更低的基礎上逐步放量銷售得標案，我們預期相較 2023 年將有強勁的服務營收與調整後 EBITDA 成長。儘管相較去年預期將有顯著改善，我們仍預測將接近指引區間的低端。

This is primarily driven by three factors. One: our guidance assumed a modest increase in foreclosure starts and sales, compared to 2023, while actual starts in sales have been lower year-to-date negatively impacting our higher margin, Hubzu trustee and title businesses. Two: although we are rapidly growing our renovation business, our guidance assumed an earlier launch and ramp of this business. Three: Legacy indemnity claims and bad debt expense were higher through the third quarter than we anticipated.

這主要由三項因素所致。第一：我們的指引假設相較 2023 年法拍啟動與成交將小幅增加，但年初至今實際啟動與成交較低，對我們高毛利的 Hubzu 受託人（trustee）與產權（title）業務造成負面影響。第二：雖然我們的整修業務正在快速成長，但指引假設該業務更早推出並更早放量。第三：截至第三季，歷史賠償索賠與壞帳費用高於我們原先預期。

Slide six, provides highlights for our Servicer and Real Estate segment. For the quarter, we grew service revenue by 4.7% sequentially and 13% over last year. Despite this service revenue growth adjusted EBITDA of $9.9 million was roughly flat to last year and 10.6% lower than the second quarter of this year.

第 6 頁投影片提供我們服務商與不動產部門的重點摘要。本季我們的服務營收較前一季成長 4.7%，較去年同期成長 13%。儘管服務營收成長，調整後 EBITDA 為 990 萬美元，與去年大致持平，且較今年第二季低 10.6%。

This reflects the higher SG&A expenses and change in revenue mix, including from the rapid growth in our recently launched renovation business, that I discussed earlier.

這反映了較高的 SG&A 費用與營收組合的變化，包括我先前提到的近期推出之整修業務快速成長所帶來的影響。

Since the late April launch of the Renovation business. We received over 70 referrals at an average renovation cost of close to $100,000 per property. Based upon September's service revenue, the Renovation business is now one of our larger business lines just six months after product launch. We anticipate service revenue and earnings from this business will ramp as the year progresses.

自 4 月下旬推出整修業務以來，我們已收到超過 70 件轉介，每件物件的平均整修成本接近 10 萬美元。以 9 月的服務營收為基礎，整修業務在產品推出僅六個月後，已成為我們較大的業務線之一。我們預期該業務的服務營收與獲利將隨著年度推進而逐步放量。

We are also onboarding another renovation customer and anticipate receiving our first referrals from this customer in the first quarter. We believe the Renovation business should be a very strong contributor to Altisource Service revenue and EBITDA in the months and years to come.

我們也正在導入另一位翻新客戶，並預期將在第一季收到該客戶的首批轉介。我們相信翻新業務在未來數月與數年將會是 Altisource 服務營收與 EBITDA 的非常強勁貢獻者。

Slide 7, provides a summary of our Servicer and Real Estate sales wins and pipeline. For the quarter, we want new business that we estimate will generate $1.7 million in annual revenue once fully ramped. We also generated $5.2 million of service revenue in the quarter or $20.8 million of service revenue on an annualized basis from 2023 and 2024 sales wins.

第 7 頁投影片提供我們在服務商與不動產的銷售勝利與銷售管線摘要。本季，我們贏得的新業務估計在完全爬坡後將帶來每年 170 萬美元的營收。我們也在本季產生 520 萬美元的服務營收；或以年化計算，來自 2023 與 2024 年銷售勝利的服務營收為 2,080 萬美元。

We ended the quarter with the Servicer and Real Estate segment weighted average sales pipeline of $23.2 million of annual revenue on a stabilized basis. Most of which we forecast will contribute over the next couple of years. The increase in the sales pipeline compared to last quarter primarily reflects the addition of earlier stage opportunities.

本季結束時，服務商與不動產部門的加權平均銷售管線，在穩定化基礎上相當於每年 2,320 萬美元的營收。其中大部分我們預測將在未來幾年內貢獻。相較上一季，銷售管線的增加主要反映新增了較早期階段的機會。

We are pleased with the financial performance of the service and real estate segment given the anemic default market.

在違約市場疲弱的情況下，我們對服務與不動產部門的財務表現感到滿意。

Slides 8 and 9, provide historical serious delinquency rates and residential foreclosure initiations and sales, which are lower than 2019 prepandemic levels and last year. The average serious delinquency rate through August of this year is 1.2%, which is 15% lower than the same periods in 2019 and 2023 negatively impacting foreclosure starts and sales. Foreclosure starts and sales are 34% and 54% lower than the same period in 2019 and 7% and 14% lower than the same period in 2023.

第 8 與第 9 頁投影片提供歷史嚴重逾期率，以及住宅止贖啟動與拍賣/出售數據；其水準低於 2019 年疫情前以及去年。截至今年 8 月的平均嚴重逾期率為 1.2%，較 2019 年與 2023 年同期低 15%，對止贖啟動與出售造成負面影響。止贖啟動與出售分別較 2019 年同期低 34% 與 54%，也較 2023 年同期低 7% 與 14%。

Should the market normalize or delinquency rates rise? We anticipate that our default related solutions would experience strong growth.

若市場回歸常態或逾期率上升呢？我們預期與違約相關的解決方案將出現強勁成長。

Moving to our origination segment in slide 10. We continue to make progress improving the performance of this segment. Compared to the third quarter of last year adjusted EBITDA improved by $1.4 million on $500,000 of service revenue growth primarily from cost savings and efficiency initiatives. Compared to the second quarter adjusted EBITDA improved by $400,000 on similar service revenue. Primarily from the reversal of bad debt expense and lower professional services expense.

接著看第 10 頁投影片的承作（Origination）部門。我們持續在改善該部門的表現方面取得進展。相較去年第三季，在服務營收成長 50 萬美元的情況下，調整後 EBITDA 改善 140 萬美元，主要來自成本節省與效率提升措施。相較今年第二季，在服務營收相近的情況下，調整後 EBITDA 改善 40 萬美元。主要來自壞帳費用回轉以及專業服務費用降低。

The origination segment's gross profit, gross profit margins, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins all improved relative to prior year and last quarter.

承作部門的毛利、毛利率、調整後 EBITDA 與調整後 EBITDA 利潤率，相較前一年與上一季皆有所改善。

Slide 11 provides a summary of our Origination segment, Sales Wins and Pipeline. On an annualized stabilized basis, we won an estimated $4.9 million in new business in the third quarter. Our weighted average sales pipeline at the end of the quarter was $12.6 million.

第 11 頁投影片提供我們承作部門的銷售勝利與銷售管線摘要。以年化穩定化基礎計算，我們在第三季贏得估計 490 萬美元的新業務。本季末的加權平均銷售管線為 1,260 萬美元。

During the quarter, we signed agreements with two homeowner insurance customers and nine credit customers.

本季期間，我們與兩家屋主保險客戶以及九家信貸客戶簽署協議。

Turning to our corporate segment in slide 12. We are maintaining strong cost discipline. Third quarter, corporate adjusted even at a loss of $7.2 million was $1.5 million or 17% better than the third quarter of 2023, and roughly flat to the second quarter of this year. The lower corporate adjusted EBITDA loss compared to last year reflects our cost savings and efficiency initiatives.

接著看第 12 頁投影片的公司部門。我們持續維持嚴格的成本紀律。第三季，公司部門調整後 EBITDA 虧損 720 萬美元，較 2023 年第三季改善 150 萬美元（或 17%），且與今年第二季大致持平。相較去年公司部門調整後 EBITDA 虧損較低，反映我們的成本節省與效率提升措施。

Moving to slide 13, I'm pleased with our third quarter and year-to-date performance. Despite the decline in serious delinquency rates, foreclosure starts, and foreclosure sales over the same period.

來到第 13 頁投影片，我對我們第三季以及年初至今的表現感到滿意。儘管同期嚴重逾期率、止贖啟動與止贖出售均下滑。

Service revenue for the first nine months of this year is $7.5 million or 7% higher than the same period last year and adjusted EBITDA is $13.8 million higher. With the recent launch and ongoing ramp of our innovation, business and sales wins. We are diversifying our revenue streams and customer base and positioning the company for further growth.

今年前九個月的服務營收為 7,500 萬美元，較去年同期高 750 萬美元（或 7%），而調整後 EBITDA 則高出 1,380 萬美元。隨著我們近期推出並持續爬坡的創新業務與銷售勝利。我們正在分散營收來源與客戶基礎，並為公司進一步成長做好布局。

I'll now open up the call for questions, operator.

接下來我將把電話會議開放給提問，接線員。

We will conduct the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

我們將進行問答環節。(接線員指示)

Raj Sharma, B Riley.

Raj Sharma，B Riley。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Good continued progress on the numbers. I wanted to understand you had talked a lot about the pre-foreclosure work and the loss mitigation work. The earlier part of the foreclosure process that you guys would do more of that work.

嗨，早安。謝謝讓我提問。數字方面持續有不錯的進展。我想了解一下，你們談了很多關於止贖前（pre-foreclosure）的工作以及損失緩解（loss mitigation）的工作。也就是止贖流程較早期的部分，你們會做更多那類工作。

Is that -- when you say that the renovations business is included in that pre foreclosure work. And what percentage of total revenues is that now as opposed to last year? And then I have a follow on question.

那是——當你說翻新業務包含在止贖前的工作裡時，是這個意思嗎？那目前這部分占總營收的比例是多少，相較去年又是多少？然後我還有一個追問。

So, I think, what we're seeing is overall, the market is not performing as well as we had expected it to perform this year. I think we modeled in our guidance, a very modest increase in foreclosure starts and sales. And what we're seeing in the reality is that foreclosure starts and sales are actually significantly lower than this time. You know, for the year-to-date this year compared to last year.

所以，我想我們看到的是，整體而言市場表現不如我們今年原先預期。我想我們在指引中建模的是止贖啟動與出售會非常小幅增加。但實際上我們看到的是，止贖啟動與出售其實顯著低於這個時間點。你知道的，就今年年初至今相較去年。

It didn't have as much of an impact on us earlier in the year because we already had the inventory in place. But as you got to the third quarter, the inventory, particularly the REO inventory from [Quin] is lower than where it was. And that's impacting the number of units we've sold. Sales prices have held up. And that had a pretty meaningful impact on us in the third quarter.

今年較早時對我們影響沒那麼大，因為我們原本就有庫存。但到了第三季，庫存——特別是來自 [Quin] 的 REO 庫存——比之前更低。這正在影響我們售出的單位數量。售價仍維持住。而這在第三季對我們造成相當明顯的影響。

We are having success in adding new clients to some of the earlier stage processes. We've added two or three new trustee customers and we've also done a decent job adding more REO customers, some came last year and another one is beginning to ramp up their referrals to us in the third quarter.

我們在較早期流程中新增客戶方面取得成效。我們新增了兩到三個新的受託人（trustee）客戶，也在增加更多 REO 客戶方面做得不錯；其中一些是去年加入的，另外還有一家在第三季開始逐步提高對我們的轉介量。

So I think where we're sitting right now, from an inventory perspective is our [aquinario] inventory is down compared to this period last year on REO, but our foreclosure inventory for both aquinario as well as non-aquinario customers is increasing, a decent amount compared to this time last year.

所以我認為我們目前就庫存角度來看，我們的 [aquinario] REO 庫存相較去年同期下降，但我們的止贖庫存——不論是 aquinario 客戶或非 aquinario 客戶——相較去年同期都有相當幅度的增加。

And our Reo inventory with non-aquinario customers is also increasing. So sales is helping us offset some of the market, but the market is having an impact overall on the business and it impacted our quarter quite meaningfully.

而我們在非 aquinario 客戶的 REO 庫存也在增加。因此，銷售正在幫助我們抵消部分市場影響，但整體而言市場仍對業務造成影響，並且對我們本季的影響相當顯著。

Great. Could you talk a little bit about this in Renovations business? Again, just to remind us what it entails and is becoming the largest part of your business.

很好。你能不能稍微談一下這在翻修（Renovations）業務中的情況？再提醒我們一次它包含哪些內容，以及它正在成為你們業務中最大的一部分。

Sure. So in the fourth quarter of last year, we signed an agreement to provide Renovation services for one of the largest owners of our REO assets in the US. I think we got our first referrals in April or late April of 2024. And I think probably through yesterday, we're probably well into 75, 80 referrals that we've received so far where that are revenue generating and each home that we renovate we believe will generate close to $100,000 of revenue. That's roughly the renovation cost and it takes time once you receive a referral to submit your bid for the work, get the bid approved and then start the work and then once we start the work, we're paid interim payments as we go.

當然。所以在去年第四季，我們簽署了一項協議，為美國我們 REO 資產最大持有人之一提供翻修服務。我想我們在 2024 年 4 月或 4 月下旬收到了第一批轉介。而且我想截至昨天，我們目前大概已經收到 75、80 件左右的轉介，這些都是能帶來營收的；我們相信每一間我們翻修的房屋將帶來接近 10 萬美元的營收。這大致就是翻修成本；而且從收到轉介到提交工程投標、取得核准、再開始施工需要時間；一旦開始施工，我們會在進度過程中收到分期款項。

And so we're pretty excited about the business. It's ramped quite nicely. Michelle, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we did about $1.5 million in revenue in the third quarter, up from just a couple of $100,000 in the second quarter.

因此我們對這項業務相當興奮。它的爬坡進展相當不錯。Michelle，如果我沒記錯的話，我想我們第三季的營收大約是 150 萬美元，較第二季只有幾十萬美元有所提升。

That's right, $1.5 million.

沒錯，150 萬美元。

And we anticipate that's going to ramp quite nicely going into the fourth quarter. And as we mentioned in my prepared remarks, we are just signing up another renovation customer that we think will start sending referrals in the first quarter. And that's a business that we're going to very actively market to others going into the end of this year and into next year.

我們預期進入第四季後還會相當順利地持續爬坡。而且如同我在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們正在簽下另一位翻修客戶，我們認為他們會在第一季開始送來轉介。這也是我們在今年底到明年會非常積極向其他客戶行銷的一項業務。

Got it. And then just you mentioned the $1.8 million higher SG&A. Can you talk about that again? And also the legacy indemnity claim and the bad debt expense fleet?

了解。另外你剛提到 SG&A 增加了 180 萬美元。可以再談一下這部分嗎？以及舊有的賠償（indemnity）索賠和壞帳費用的影響？

Yeah, I think there are three things. If we compare it maybe not to last year, but to what we anticipated was going to happen for this year. I think the impact from the market and perhaps a little bit of a slower ramp of some of our default related services in the quarter cost us about $2 million of EBITDA.

好的，我想有三件事。如果我們不是拿去年來比，而是拿我們原先預期今年會發生的情況來比。我認為市場的影響，以及本季我們部分與違約相關服務的爬坡稍慢，讓我們少了大約 200 萬美元的 EBITDA。

And that's primarily impacting Hubzu, the trustee and the title business, on the default side, I think the slower ramp of the Renovation business compared to our plan. I think we started a couple of months later than we expected that probably cost us about a $1.5 million of EBITDA.

這主要影響到 Hubzu、受託人（trustee）以及產權（title）業務，在違約（default）端；另外，我認為翻修業務相較於我們的計畫爬坡較慢。我想我們比預期晚了幾個月開始，這大概讓我們少了約 150 萬美元的 EBITDA。

And then the higher SG&A, which is comprised of both professional services and bad debt, that's another about $350,000. So in total, it probably cost us about $3 million in the quarter compared to what we expected to do.

再來是較高的 SG&A，其中包含專業服務費與壞帳，這又大約是 35 萬美元。所以合計起來，本季相較於我們原先預期的表現，大概少了約 300 萬美元。

So, the bad debt, there was one customer in particular, we think it's ultimately going to be collectible, the smaller customer that expected to pay us and then didn't, -- we think we'll get paid in the subsequent quarters. Not exactly sure when, but we think it's collectible.

至於壞帳，有一位特定客戶，我們認為最終是可以收回的；是一個較小的客戶，原本預期會付款但後來沒有——我們認為後續季度會收到款項。不確定確切時間點，但我們認為可收回。

And then from a legal fees perspective, there's some legacy matters going back several years and we just happen to have some higher legal and indemnification expenses this quarter than we expected.

而在法律費用方面，有一些可追溯到好幾年前的舊案，我們本季剛好出現比預期更高的法律與賠償（indemnification）支出。

Got it. Thank you. And then just lastly on the Originations business, do you see a continued pick up here? Can you provide some color on how you see that business with the lowering the rates and perhaps higher refis or?

了解。謝謝。最後關於貸款發起（Originations）業務，你們是否看到持續回升？在降息、可能帶來較多再融資（refi）等情況下，你能否補充一些你對該業務的看法？

Yeah, sure. So I think we saw that late summer, early into September, there was a rally in rates and, origination volumes picked up. That very quickly came, I think to a halt. As the economic news was positive and, the mortgage rates went back up close to 7%, I think.

好的，當然。我想我們在夏末、9 月初看到利率出現一波下行，貸款發起量也有所回升。但我認為那很快就停止了。隨著經濟消息偏正面，房貸利率又回升到接近 7%。

And so I think there was a little bit of a rally there. I think a lot of the pick up there went to the loan servicers that have a recapture platform. And so we didn't see much of an impact from that over the summer. I think our revenue is roughly flat from the second to third quarter.

所以我想那裡確實有一小段反彈。我認為那波回升多數流向了具備再攬回（recapture）平台的貸款服務商（loan servicers）。因此我們在夏季並沒有看到太多影響。我想我們的營收從第二季到第三季大致持平。

We are making really good progress, adding more clients to the credit business. I think we added eight or nine new clients or sales wins or signed contracts over the quarter and we added two more insurance customers over the quarter.

我們在為信貸（credit）業務新增更多客戶方面進展非常好。我想本季我們新增了 8 或 9 個新客戶／銷售勝出（sales wins）／或已簽約的合約，另外本季也新增了兩個保險客戶。

So I think we're just going to continue to execute on that strategy where we launch new products and then work to increase adoption as we do a good job helping our members make more money through these products. And so I think that's going to be our strategy and the market will do what it does and, and we got to keep continuing to add products and continuing to increase the adoption of members of buying those products from us.

所以我想我們會持續執行這個策略：推出新產品，並在我們有效協助會員透過這些產品賺更多錢的同時，努力提升採用率。因此我想這會是我們的策略；市場會怎麼走就怎麼走，而我們必須持續增加產品，並持續提高會員向我們購買這些產品的採用率。

Mike Grendahl of Northland.

Northland 的 Mike Grendahl。

Hey guys. Thanks. Hey, Will in thinking about the Renovation business, any rough base case, what revenues could look like in '25 and then any insight on, I don't know, adjusted EBITDA margin in the business or is this kind of a cost plus business? And then a follow up, but go ahead.

嗨，各位。謝謝。Will，談到翻修業務，你們對 2025 年營收可能的樣貌有沒有一個大致的基本情境（base case）？另外，對於該業務的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率有沒有什麼看法，或這基本上是成本加成（cost plus）的業務？然後我還有一個追問，不過你先回答。

Right. Yeah. So, we're still going through our planning process for next year and so we haven't finalized that. I do think, look, if you get 15 referrals a month on an average renovation cost of $100,000 you're looking at $1.5 million of revenue a month. If you get 30 referrals a month from that client, you're looking at $3 million a month of revenue on a stabilized basis once your inflows and outflows are roughly the same.

對。好的。所以我們仍在進行明年的規劃流程，尚未定案。但我確實認為，你看，如果平均每月有 15 件轉介、平均每件翻修成本 10 萬美元，那每月營收就是 150 萬美元。如果該客戶每月有 30 件轉介，那在業務穩定後（當你的現金流入與流出大致相當時），每月營收就是 300 萬美元。

And so I think it's a tough business to model. You know, we get some guidance from our customer, but it's only guidance and it doesn't necessarily turn out the way they expect it. So we're very optimistic. It's going to be a meaningful contributor next year, but it's hard to estimate exactly where it's going to be at this point.

所以我認為這是一個很難建模的業務。你知道，我們會從客戶那裡得到一些指引，但那只是指引，實際結果不一定會如他們所預期。因此我們非常樂觀。它明年會成為重要的貢獻來源，但在這個時間點很難精確估計會到什麼程度。

From a margin perspective, if you think about construction managers, in the space they're making after their corporate costs, which typically they're paid for separately, 10% to 15% type margins, maybe as high as 20% for some of them. And so we hope we'll be on the higher end of that site.

就利潤率而言，如果你看這個領域的施工管理商（construction managers），在扣除其公司層級成本之後——而這些成本通常是另外計費的——他們大概有 10% 到 15% 這類型的利潤率，有些甚至高達 20%。因此我們希望我們能落在那個區間的較高端。

Got it. And then just two follow ups. Do you have the capacity for, I mean, 15 a month, seems like you do, if you already got 75, 80 referrals, but 15 to 30, you have the capacity to handle that? And then maybe what's your risk, if you take a referral build out, what if it costs more? What if there's overage? Could you kind of address what ASP risks are in this business?

了解。接著再追問兩點。你們有能力承接嗎？我是說每月 15 件，看起來你們應該可以，畢竟你們已經有 75、80 個轉介了，但如果是 15 到 30 件，你們有能力處理嗎？另外，如果你們接下轉介案的建置/擴編，你們的風險是什麼？如果成本更高怎麼辦？如果有超支怎麼辦？你能否談談在這個業務中 ASP 的風險？

Sure. We think we've got a pretty good handle on the risks and are able to mitigate those. Mike, but if you think about the risk, we submit a bid, it's approved and if we underestimate what it's going to cost for the work that was approved. We take that risk of overage. The flip side though is if you underestimate the cost because you open up a wall and you found mold that's a change order and you can submit that to a client and then you get paid for that change order.

當然。我們認為自己對風險掌握得相當好，也能加以緩解。Mike，但如果你從風險角度來看，我們提交報價、獲得核准後，若我們低估了已核准工作的實際成本，超支的風險就由我們承擔。但反過來說，如果你低估成本是因為打開牆面後發現霉菌，那就屬於變更單，你可以提交給客戶，然後就能就該變更單收款。

And so I think we do a very good job on the upfront work, understanding the scope and what it's going to cost us to complete the work and to make an attractive margin on that work for the bid we've submitted. And if it turns out there's items that we could not have expected or there's change orders or additional work requirements from our clients, then we can charge for that additional work. So I think we've got a good handle on it and can manage the risk,

因此我認為我們在前期工作做得非常好，能理解工作範圍，以及完成該工作對我們而言會花多少成本，並在所提交的報價上取得具吸引力的利潤率。若最後出現我們無法預期的項目、或有變更單、或客戶提出額外工作需求，我們就能就這些額外工作收費。所以我認為我們掌握得很好，也能管理風險，

Got it and the capacity?

了解，那產能呢？

And good. Thank you. From a capacity perspective, we feel very good as well. We have -- we're operating primarily today in six states with a few stragglers in some other states and we have regional managers in each of those states that are overseeing the programs and a pipeline of additional regional managers, should we need them in those markets or new markets. So we feel good about very good, about capacity. And then a lot of the back office work, we've got the infrastructure in place.

好的。謝謝。就產能而言，我們也非常有信心。我們目前主要在六個州營運，另外在其他一些州還有零星業務；我們在每個州都有區域經理負責監督各項計畫，並且也有額外區域經理的人才儲備，以便在那些市場或新市場需要時補上。所以我們對產能非常、非常有信心。另外，許多後台工作方面，我們也已建立好相關基礎設施。

Raj Sharma, B. Riley.

Raj Sharma，B. Riley。

Hi, I just wanted to hop on again and ask your views on the foreclosure market and the delinquencies. I mean, are you seeing any change in the fundamental upside potential of this business or how it's progressing or do you think it has impacted the run rate? If we ever got back to the pre-COVID level of foreclosures? Has anything changed in your outlook?

嗨，我想再加入問一下你們對法拍市場與逾期情況的看法。我的意思是，你們是否看到這項業務的基本上行潛力或其進展有任何變化？或者你認為它已影響到目前的運行水準（run rate）？如果我們回到 COVID 之前的法拍水準呢？你們的展望有任何改變嗎？

No, look I mean, I don't think any of us would ever have guessed that the level of foreclosure initiations and sales would be where they are today post coming out of the pandemic. I do think there are some, we didn't talk about it in my prepared remarks.

沒有。你看，我的意思是，我想我們任何人都不會猜到，在疫情結束後，法拍啟動與拍賣的水準會是今天這樣。我確實認為有一些——我在事先準備的發言中沒有提到。

I do think there's some early signs. I mean, yesterday a report came out that on a seasonally adjusted basis, annualized home sales look like they're going to be at a 29 year low this year. I think homes available for sale, the inventories increased compared to last year by over 20%.

我確實認為有一些早期跡象。我的意思是，昨天有一份報告指出，以季節性調整後的年化口徑來看，今年房屋銷售量看起來將創 29 年新低。我認為待售房屋供給（庫存）相較去年增加了超過 20%。

This usually is a good leading indicator to prices coming down. And if you think about those more recent cohorts of Origination that have, you know, they may be impacted by home prices coming down less equity and then interest rates are staying stubbornly high.

這通常是房價下跌的良好領先指標。如果你想想那些較近期的放款起始批次（origination cohorts），你知道，它們可能會受到房價下跌的影響，導致權益（equity）變少，而利率又仍然頑固地維持在高檔。

And so that could drive delinquency rates higher. I think as we talked about in the prepared remarks, you know, the average serious delinquency rate actually has come down this year compared to last year and compared to pre-pandemic. I don't think this lasts forever and I do think the market ultimately turns, but we need to continue to make sure we're in a position to benefit from it turns, when it turns, but also work to diversify our revenue as we wait.

因此這可能會推升逾期率。我想如同我們在事先準備的發言中提到的，平均嚴重逾期率今年其實較去年下降，也低於疫情前。我不認為這會永遠持續下去，我也認為市場最終會反轉，但我們需要持續確保自己處於能在反轉時受益的位置——在它反轉時——同時在等待期間努力分散收入來源。

So I think overall Mike, we haven't seen it turn yet. In fact, it's gone a little bit the other direction. But I think, everything is cyclical and in time the default market will get more back to normal. It just hasn't happened yet.

所以整體而言，Mike，我們還沒看到它反轉。事實上，它還稍微往相反方向走了一點。但我認為一切都是循環的，隨著時間推移，違約市場會更回到正常狀態。只是目前還沒發生。

And in terms of the pre-foreclosure work and the loss mitigation work. Are you doing more of it, now? And has your share gone up?

那就法拍前（pre-foreclosure）作業與損失緩解（loss mitigation）作業而言，你們現在做得更多了嗎？你們的市占有提升嗎？

Yeah. We've won -- , I think on the trustee side and on the title side, we've won three or so new customers. Decent sized loan servicers. We've also grabbed some more market share from our existing customers on some of the pre-foreclosure work that's help us offset some of the market decline.

有。我想在受託人（trustee）端與產權（title）端，我們贏得了大約三個新客戶。都是規模不錯的貸款服務商（loan servicers）。我們也從既有客戶那邊拿到更多一些法拍前作業的市占，這有助於我們抵消部分市場下滑。

And we continue to have, as you saw in our sales slide, a decent pipeline on a weighted average basis of prospects. But look, there's not, it's kind of hand to hand combat from a sales perspective. We're a really strong performer. We're doing well on the scorecards and we think that's going to help us grab share with existing clients and win new business, but there's just not a ton of new business out there to grab right now.

而且我們仍然有——如你在我們的銷售投影片中看到的——以加權平均口徑來看相當不錯的潛在客戶管線。但你看，從銷售角度來說，這有點像短兵相接的肉搏戰。我們的表現非常強。我們在評分卡上的表現很好，我們認為這將幫助我們在既有客戶中取得更多份額並贏得新業務，但目前市場上確實沒有太多新的業務可供爭取。

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Will Shepro for closing remarks.

謝謝。目前顯示沒有其他問題。現在我想把電話交回給 Will Shepro 作結語。

Great. Thanks, operator. We're pleased with our third quarter financial performance and believe we're well positioned for 2024 and beyond. Thanks for joining today.

很好。謝謝，接線員。我們對第三季的財務表現感到滿意，並相信我們已為 2024 年及更長遠的未來做好良好布局。感謝各位今天加入。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。本次節目到此結束。您現在可以掛線。