Aptiv PLC (APTV) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Aptiv Q4 2024 earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jane Wu, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Aptiv 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製。現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係和企業發展副總裁 Jane Wu。請繼續。

Thank you, Jeff. Good morning, and thank you for joining Aptiv's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. The press release and related tables, along with the slide presentation, can be found on the Investor Relations portion of our website at aptiv.com.

謝謝你，傑夫。早安，感謝您參加 Aptiv 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。新聞稿和相關表格以及投影片簡報可在我們網站 aptiv.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

Today's review of our financials exclude amortization, restructuring and other special items and we'll address the continuing operations of Aptiv. The reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP measures for our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results as well as our first quarter and full year 2025 outlook are included at the back of the slide presentation and the earnings press release. During today's call, we will be providing certain forward-looking information that reflects Aptiv's current view of future financial performance, and may be materially different for reasons that we cite in our Form 10-K and other SEC filings.

今天的財務審查不包括攤銷、重組和其他特殊項目，我們將討論 Aptiv 的持續營運。我們的 2024 年第四季和全年業績以及 2025 年第一季和全年展望的 GAAP 和非 GAAP 指標之間的對帳包含在幻燈片演示和收益新聞稿的後面。在今天的電話會議中，我們將提供某些前瞻性信息，這些信息反映了 Aptiv 對未來財務業績的當前看法，並且可能由於我們在 10-K 表格和其他 SEC 文件中引用的原因而存在重大差異。

Joining us today will be Kevin Clark, Aptiv's Chair and CEO; and Varun Laroyia, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Kevin will provide a strategic update on the business, and Varun will cover the financial results in more detail before we open the call to Q&A.

今天與我們一起參加活動的有 Aptiv 董事長兼執行長 Kevin Clark；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Varun Laroyia；在我們開始問答環節之前，Kevin 將提供業務的策略更新，而 Varun 將在電話會議中更詳細地介紹財務結果。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin Clark.

說到這裡，我想把電話轉給凱文克拉克 (Kevin Clark)。

Thanks, Jane, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. Let's begin on slide 3. Aptiv ended the year on a solid note with fourth quarter results in line with our expectations demonstrating our ability to execute in today's dynamic market environment. Touching on a few of the highlights. New business bookings reached a fourth quarter record of $10.1 billion, reflecting the strength of our portfolio of industry-leading advanced technologies, revenue totaled $4.9 billion, that's down 1%, the result of strong revenue growth from new program launches across key product lines, offset by continued weakness in production schedules at select OEMs, primarily in Europe and with multinational joint ventures in China.

謝謝，簡，也謝謝大家今天早上加入我們。讓我們從投影片 3 開始。談談一些亮點。第四季新業務訂單達到創紀錄的 101 億美元，反映了我們行業領先的先進技術組合的實力，收入總計 49 億美元，下降 1%，這得益於主要產品線新項目推出帶來的強勁收入增長，但被部分原始設備製造商（主要在歐洲以及在中國的跨國合資企業）生產計劃持續疲軟所抵消。

Quarterly operating income reached $623 million, reflecting strong operating performance and ongoing cost reduction initiatives which also, along with share repurchases and the restructuring of Aptiv's ownership interest in the Motional joint venture drove earnings per share growth of 25%. Lastly, operating cash flow totaled a record $1.1 billion, allowing us to accelerate our deleveraging which Varun will discuss shortly.

季度營業收入達到 6.23 億美元，反映了強勁的營運業績和持續的成本削減舉措，同時，股票回購和 Aptiv 在 Motional 合資企業中的所有權重組推動每股收益成長 25%。最後，營運現金流總額達到創紀錄的 11 億美元，這使我們能夠加速去槓桿化，Varun 稍後將對此進行討論。

In summary, our team is doing an exceptional job addressing the evolving needs of our customers, while also operating efficiently and further optimizing our cost structure.

總而言之，我們的團隊在滿足客戶不斷變化的需求的同時，還高效運作並進一步優化了我們的成本結構，做得非常出色。

Turning to the next slide to cover our major achievements during 2024. Aptiv continued to capitalize on the safe, green and connected megatrends, reaching numerous technology milestones during the year, including two awards for full system Gen 6 ADAS platforms, one of which is from an EMEA-based OEM that also includes in-cabin sensing and our full suite of Wind River embedded and Studio developer software.

下一張投影片介紹了我們在 2024 年取得的主要成就。

Multiple program launches with Mahindra that utilize our integrated cockpit controller, which consolidates multiple ECUs into a single compute platform capable of supporting higher levels of performance and scalability. And the expansion of our portfolio of 48-volt connectors to meet the increasing demand from OEMs. We're also capitalizing on strong commercial traction with the local Chinese OEMs, leading the transition to software-defined vehicles, reflected in 16% revenue growth with the domestic OEMs and our recent FDA zonal controller award from Sherry that includes both Wind River and Aptiv software.

我們與 Mahindra 合作啟動了多個項目，這些項目利用了我們的整合式駕駛艙控制器，該控制器將多個 ECU 整合到單一運算平台中，能夠支援更高水準的效能和可擴展性。我們不斷擴展 48 伏特連接器的產品組合，以滿足 OEM 日益增長的需求。我們也利用與中國本土 OEM 廠商的強大商業吸引力，引領向軟體定義汽車的轉型，這體現在國內 OEM 廠商 16% 的營收成長，以及我們最近從 Sherry 獲得的 FDA 區域控制器獎，其中包括 Wind River 和 Aptiv 軟體。

And lastly, Wind River's launch of eLxr Pro, which has generated significant interest from the broader enterprise Linux ecosystem with launch partners, including AWS, Capgemini, Intel, SCIC and Super Micro. These notable achievements during 2024 validate the strength of our industry-leading portfolio and have resulted in new business bookings of $31 billion, including record bookings for Signal and Power Solutions, record operating income and earnings per share, reflecting our strong operating performance and optimized cost structure and record operating cash flow, positioning us to continue to invest in the business, while also accelerating the return of a significant amount of capital to shareholders, which will result in more than a 20% reduction in outstanding shares.

最後，Wind River 推出了 eLxr Pro，引起了更廣泛的企業 Linux 生態系統的極大興趣，其發布合作夥伴包括 AWS、Capgemini、Intel、SCIC 和 Super Micro。 2024年取得的這些顯著成就驗證了我們行業領先產品組合的實力，並帶來了310億美元的新業務訂單，包括信號和電源解決方案的創紀錄訂單、創紀錄的營業收入和每股收益，反映了我們強勁的運營業績和優化的成本結構以及創紀錄的運營現金流，使我們能夠繼續投資於該業務，同時向股東流通，20%還大量減少資本。

We continued executing on our long-term strategy while also launching a record number of new vehicle programs and increasing the resiliency of our supply chain. We're extremely proud of our accomplishments in 2024 and the performance of the Aptiv team.

我們繼續執行我們的長期策略，同時推出了創紀錄數量的新車項目並提高了我們供應鏈的彈性。我們對 2024 年所取得的成就和 Aptiv 團隊的表現感到非常自豪。

Moving to slide 5 to review new business awards. As I mentioned on the previous slide, our industry-leading portfolio of advanced technologies enabled us to reach just under $31 billion of new business awards during the year. Advanced Safety and User Experience bookings totaled $4.4 billion, driven by Active Safety bookings of $2.7 billion, including the 2 Gen 6 ADAS platform awards I mentioned earlier as well as Gen 6 radar awards with a German luxury OEM and two large Japanese OEMs.

前往投影片 5 回顧新業務獎項。正如我在上一張幻燈片中提到的，我們領先業界的先進技術組合使我們在一年內獲得了近 310 億美元的新業務獎勵。高級安全和用戶體驗訂單總額達到 44 億美元，其中主動安全訂單達 27 億美元，其中包括我之前提到的 2 個第六代 ADAS 平台獎項以及與一家德國豪華 OEM 和兩家大型日本 OEM 簽訂的第六代雷達獎項。

Signal and Power Solutions bookings reached $26.4 billion, including $8 billion in the Engineered Components group across the full product portfolio in multiple end markets and a record $18.4 billion in the electrical distribution systems business. And lastly, across all product lines, a record $7 billion of new business in China, of which over $5 billion was with top local Chinese OEMs and a US-based global electric vehicle OEM.

訊號和電源解決方案訂單金額達到 264 億美元，其中包括工程組件集團覆蓋多個終端市場的全產品組合訂單額 80 億美元，以及配電系統業務創紀錄的 184 億美元。最後，在所有產品線中，中國的新業務創下了 70 億美元的記錄，其中超過 50 億美元是與中國本土頂尖汽車製造商和美國的全球電動車製造商達成的。

With a broad portfolio of advanced technologies that provides OEMs with increased flexibility at a competitive cost, we have clear line of sight to over $31 billion of new business awards in 2025.

我們擁有廣泛的先進技術組合，能夠以具有競爭力的成本為 OEM 提供更高的靈活性，我們預計在 2025 年獲得超過 310 億美元的新業務獎勵。

Turning to slide 6 to review the highlights for Advanced Safety and User Experience segment which achieved record revenue and earnings in 2024, underscoring the competitiveness of our product portfolio and the strength of our operating capabilities. Revenues increased 2% driven by double-digit growth in North America with local OEMs in China, partially offset by low single-digit declines in Europe and Asia Pacific.

前往投影片 6，回顧高級安全和用戶體驗部門的亮點，該部門在 2024 年實現了創紀錄的收入和收益，凸顯了我們產品組合的競爭力和營運能力的實力。營收成長了 2%，這得益於北美地區和中國本地 OEM 廠商的兩位數增長，但歐洲和亞太地區的個位數低幅下滑部分抵消了這一增長。

Active Safety revenues increased mid-teens. Partially offset by a decline in user experience revenues due to the roll-off of legacy programs. Operating margins were over 12%. The benefit of the continued rotation of our engineering footprint to India and our ongoing adoption of Wind River's DevSecOps tools, which have improved the productivity of our software developers by over 20%.

主動安全收入成長了百分之十幾。部分抵消了因遺留程式的終止而導致的使用者體驗收入的下降。營業利益率超過12%。我們將工程業務持續轉移到印度，並持續採用 Wind River 的 DevSecOps 工具，這使我們的軟體開發人員的工作效率提高了 20% 以上。

Wind River revenues increased 14% in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by studio operator awards in telco, but full year revenues were down slightly, the result of the continued slowdown in investment in 5G infrastructure in telco, impacting closure rates on commercial opportunities and a longer selling cycle for Studio developer in the automotive and industrial markets.

Wind River 第四季營收成長了 14%，主要得益於電信公司的工作室營運商獎項，但全年營收略有下降，原因是電信公司對 5G 基礎設施的投資持續放緩，影響了商業機會的成交率，以及汽車和工業市場工作室開發商的銷售週期延長。

Increased investment in Wind River's commercial and product organization during the year to enhance our existing portfolio of products, including VxWorks, operator and developer and also build new products such as eLxr Pro, which we're confident will drive strong revenue growth in 2025.

今年增加了對 Wind River 商業和產品組織的投資，以增強我們現有的產品組合，包括 VxWorks、營運商和開發商，並打造 eLxr Pro 等新產品，我們相信這些產品將在 2025 年推動強勁的收入成長。

In addition, the advancements in AI is providing Wind River with incremental growth opportunities as customers look to reduce costs by moving AI work flows to the edge. Overall, Advanced Safety and User experience provides solutions that increase flexibility while lower cost, making us a partner of choice for our customers.

此外，隨著客戶希望透過將人工智慧工作流程轉移到邊緣來降低成本，人工智慧的進步為 Wind River 提供了增量成長機會。總體而言，先進的安全性和用戶體驗提供了提高靈活性同時降低成本的解決方案，使我們成為客戶的首選合作夥伴。

This is reflected in our recent awards, including a central computer award for Active Safety and User Experience applications across multiple Geely brands, an award for an integrated cockpit controller from a major global truck manufacturer. Additional awards with leading Japanese OEMs for a Gen 6 radar solution and an award with Boost Mobile to provide core to edge cloud infrastructure for the world's largest Open RAN deployment which demonstrates Wind River's leadership position in the telco industry.

這反映在我們最近獲得的獎項中，包括多個吉利品牌的主動安全和用戶體驗應用的中央電腦獎，以及來自全球一家主要卡車製造商的整合式駕駛艙控制器獎。此外，Wind River 還獲得了日本領先 OEM 頒發的第六代雷達解決方案獎項，以及與 Boost Mobile 頒發的為全球最大的 Open RAN 部署提供核心到邊緣雲基礎設施的獎項，彰顯了 Wind River 在電信行業的領導地位。

Turning to the Signal and Power Solutions segment on slide 7. Revenues declined 3% during the year, with electrical distribution systems impacted by lower vehicle production schedules with select OEMs in North America and Europe and two multinational JVs in China and Engineered Components Group benefiting from growth in non-auto markets offset by lower high-voltage revenue.

轉向幻燈片 7 上的信號和電源解決方案部分。

Drive further margin expansion in electrical distribution systems, we're accelerating the rotation of our manufacturing footprint to Central America and North Africa, while also increasing the automation of select manufacturing processes, targeting automation levels of 30% by 2026 and over 50% in 2030, as we've discussed previously. We've also demonstrated strong commercial momentum across all regions as reflected in fourth quarter bookings, including a significant Electrical Architecture award with a major North American OEM for their light and heavy-duty truck platforms.

為了進一步擴大電力分配系統的利潤率，我們正在加速將製造業務轉移到中美洲和北非，同時提高部分製造流程的自動化程度，目標是到 2026 年實現 30% 的自動化水平，到 2030 年實現 50% 以上的自動化水平，正如我們之前所討論過的。我們還在所有地區展示了強勁的商業勢頭，這反映在第四季度的訂單中，其中包括與北美一家大型 OEM 合作獲得的針對其輕型和重型卡車平台的重要電氣架構獎項。

Over $1 billion of new business awards with lean local OEMs in China and several customer awards with interconnect solutions in the aerospace and defense, space and industrial markets.

與中國本地精益原始設備製造商簽訂了超過 10 億美元的新業務合同，並與航空航天和國防、太空和工業市場的多個客戶簽訂了互連解決方案合約。

Moving to slide 8. I wanted to touch on our recent announcement to separate the Electrical Distribution Systems business from Aptiv, creating two optimally positioned independent companies each with its own unique product portfolio and financial profile and with greater flexibility to pursue their own individual market opportunities and capital allocation strategies. By enhancing strategic and operational focus, we're positioning both Aptiv and EDS to more effectively address the evolving needs of our customers and to further capitalize on market opportunities, which we believe will drive even greater success and value creation for both companies.

轉到第 8 張投影片。透過加強策略和營運重點，我們將使 Aptiv 和 EDS 能夠更有效地滿足客戶不斷變化的需求，並進一步利用市場機會，我們相信這將為兩家公司帶來更大的成功和價值創造。

We're targeting the completion of the separation by March 31, 2026, subject to final approval by Aptiv's Board of Directors and customary conditions. In the meantime, we'll continue to keep investors updated as the separation progresses, and we'll host Investor Days for both Aptiv and EDS in the fall of this year.

我們的目標是在 2026 年 3 月 31 日之前完成分離，但須獲得 Aptiv 董事會的最終批准和慣例條件。同時，我們將繼續向投資者通報分離進展，並將在今年秋季為 Aptiv 和 EDS 舉辦投資者日。

Moving to slide 9 in our outlook for 2025. We remain confident that the trend towards greater levels of electrification, automation, digitalization and connectivity will continue. With our portfolio of advanced technologies, Aptiv is well positioned to address the evolving needs of our customers and to further capitalize on market opportunities across multiple industries. The market remains dynamic, and the recent announcements regarding trade policy has created incremental uncertainty, which could impact supply chain and vehicle production.

轉到 2025 年展望的第 9 頁 我們仍然相信，電氣化、自動化、數位化和連結性水準不斷提高的趨勢將會持續下去。憑藉我們先進的技術組合，Aptiv 能夠很好地滿足客戶不斷變化的需求，並進一步利用多個行業的市場機會。市場仍然充滿活力，最近有關貿易政策的公告帶來了越來越多的不確定性，這可能會影響供應鏈和汽車生產。

As a result, as Varun will discuss shortly, we believe it's prudent to include additional conservatism for North American vehicle production in our current outlook for 2025. But to be clear, our outlook has not factored in changes in tax, trade or tariff policy by the new administration. We'll monitor the situation closely, and take actions as necessary while continuing to capitalize on growth opportunities, including the continued growth in electric vehicles and ongoing adoption of advanced ADAS solutions globally and improved customer mix by new vehicle program launches and continued penetration and accelerated growth with the leading local Chinese OEMs, and we'll continue to optimize our cost structure, pursue strategic capital deployment opportunities including further debt paydown, bolt-on M&A and the opportunistic return of cash to shareholders and flawlessly execute the EDS separation targeted for the first quarter of 2026.

因此，正如 Varun 稍後將討論的那樣，我們認為在當前對 2025 年的展望中，將對北美汽車生產的額外保守性納入其中是明智之舉。我們將密切關注形勢發展，並在必要時採取行動，同時繼續利用增長機會，包括電動汽車的持續增長、全球範圍內先進 ADAS 解決方案的持續採用、通過推出新車計劃改善客戶結構以及與中國本土領先 OEM 的持續滲透和加速增長，我們將繼續優化成本結構，尋求戰略資本配置機會，包括進一步償還債務、附加併購買和返向股東2002 202 20202 20202 年的數據，附加計劃。

I'll now turn the call over to Varun to go through the numbers in more detail.

現在我將把電話轉給 Varun，讓他更詳細地介紹這些數字。

Thanks, Kevin, and good morning, everyone. Kevin shared de novo view of the quarter, and I'll share further details, including insight into segment performance.

謝謝，凱文，大家早安。凱文 (Kevin) 分享了對本季的新看法，我將分享更多細節，包括對分部表現的見解。

Additionally, in connection with the previously announced planned spinoff of our Electrical Distribution Systems business effective first quarter 2025, we are realigning our business into three reportable segments. EDS, ECG and AS&UX. To reflect this change, we are furnishing supplemental recast quarterly financial information for 2024 and 2023.

此外，根據先前宣布的配電系統業務分拆計劃，我們將於 2025 年第一季生效，將業務重新調整為三個報告部門。 EDS、ECG 和 AS&UX。為了反映這一變化，我們將提供 2024 年和 2023 年的補充重訂季度財務資訊。

Starting with slide 10. Aptiv delivered strong earnings growth in the quarter despite revenues down 1% as we continue to drive operating performance improvements across the business. Consistent with the third quarter, revenue growth was impacted by lower vehicle production at select customers. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA and operating income were $811 million, and $623 million, respectively, with performance more than offsetting labor economics, which contributed to an increase in operating margin by 50 basis points over the prior year.

從幻燈片 10 開始。與第三季一致，營收成長受到部分客戶汽車產量下降的影響。第四季調整後的 EBITDA 和營業收入分別為 8.11 億美元和 6.23 億美元，業績抵銷了勞動經濟的影響，導致營業利潤率比上年增加 50 個基點。

FX and commodities were a $26 million tailwind in the quarter, primarily the favorable impact of the Mexican peso. We delivered quarterly adjusted earnings per share of $1.75, an increase of 25% from the prior year, which primarily reflects the benefits of share repurchases and the restructuring of the Motional joint venture.

外匯和大宗商品是本季 2600 萬美元的順風，主要是墨西哥比索的有利影響。我們實現的季度調整後每股收益為 1.75 美元，較上年增長 25%，這主要反映了股票回購和 Motional 合資企業重組的好處。

Operating cash flow for the quarter totaled a record $1.1 billion and capital expenditures were $166 million. Finally, during the quarter, we paid down $1.1 billion of outstanding debt, including the 1.5% euro notes that were due in 2025, as well as $350 million or over half of the term loan A due in 2027.

本季營運現金流總計創紀錄的 11 億美元，資本支出為 1.66 億美元。最後，在本季度，我們償還了 11 億美元的未償還債務，包括 2025 年到期的 1.5% 歐元票據，以及 2027 年到期的 3.5 億美元或一半以上的定期貸款 A。

Moving to slide 11. As previously stated, revenue was negatively impacted by lower vehicle production, which was down 4% in the quarter, driven by revenue on electrified vehicle platforms down 20% globally. Net price in commodities were positive in the quarter, partially offset by foreign exchange. Revenue performance was mixed across regions, with North America up 3%, driven by strong Active Safety growth, Europe was down 8%, impacted by slower growth in Electrified Vehicle platforms, partially offset by active safety. And China grew 4%, with sales to local OEMs up 25%. Bringing full year 2024 revenue mix in China to 53% with local OEMs, 34% with multinational joint ventures and the balance with a large global EV manufacturer.

移至第 11 張幻燈片。本季商品淨價格為正值，但被外匯部分抵銷。各地區營收表現不一，其中北美地區成長 3%，受主動安全強勁成長的推動，歐洲地區下降 8%，受電動車平台成長放緩的影響，但主動安全部分抵銷了這一影響。中國市場成長了 4%，對當地 OEM 的銷售額成長了 25%。 2024 年全年中國市場收入結構中，53% 來自本土 OEM，34% 來自跨國合資企業，其餘來自一家大型全球電動車製造商。

Moving to the ASUX segment on the next slide. Fourth quarter year-over-year revenues were up 2%. The Active Safety product line grew 15% in the quarter driven by North America, which grew over 50% as a result of proliferation across platforms and the smart vehicle compute and software product line grew 13%, in line with expectations. Offset by the user experience product line, down 12% in the quarter, reflecting roll offs of legacy programs as well as lower multinational JV vehicle production in China.

下一張投影片前往 ASUX 部分。第四季營收年增2%。本季度，主動安全產品線成長了 15%，主要得益於北美市場的推動，由於跨平台的普及，北美市場成長了 50% 以上，智慧汽車運算和軟體產品線成長了 13%，符合預期。用戶體驗產品線本季下降 12%，抵消了這一影響，反映了傳統項目的終止以及中國跨國合資汽車產量的下降。

Fourth quarter adjusted operating income and margin were $193 million and 14%, respectively, resulting from significant year-over-year improvement in operating performance and our continued focus on cost improvement initiatives. For the full year, revenue grew 2% with strong Active Safety growth of 16%, offset by user experience down 12%. Full year operating income and margins were up 58% to $714 million with 440 basis points of margin expansion.

第四季調整後的營業收入和利潤率分別為 1.93 億美元和 14%，這得益於經營業績同比大幅改善及我們持續關注成本改進舉措。全年營收成長了 2%，其中主動安全業務強勁成長了 16%，但用戶體驗下降了 12%。全年營業收入和利潤率成長 58% 至 7.14 億美元，利潤率擴大 440 個基點。

Turning to Signal and Power on slide 13. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $3.5 billion, down 2% due to lower volumes, partially offset by 5% growth in nonauto end markets. Fourth quarter adjusted operating income was $430 million or 12.1%, impacted by the lower volume flow-through. For the full year, revenue growth was down 3% as weakness in North America and Europe was partially offset by 16% growth with local China OEMs, while low-voltage and high-voltage revenue on electrified platforms was down 16%. Full year segment adjusted operating income was $1.7 billion or 11.8%, up 20 basis points reflecting improved operating performance as well as net benefit from price and commodities, while the year-over-year FX impact was not significant.

轉向幻燈片 13 上的訊號和電源。第四季調整後營業收入為 4.3 億美元，降幅 12.1%，受流通量下降的影響。全年營收成長下降 3%，因為北美和歐洲的疲軟被中國本土 OEM 廠商 16% 的成長部分抵消，而電動平台的低壓和高壓收入下降 16%。全年分部調整後營業收入為 17 億美元，增幅 11.8%，上漲 20 個基點，反映出經營業績改善以及價格與商品帶來的淨收益，而同比外匯影響並不顯著。

Turning now to slide 14 and macro expectations for 2025. As Kevin mentioned, we remain cautious about the impact of geopolitical factors, including uncertainty around tariffs. While our outlook does not reflect the direct impacts of potential trade policy changes, we have included additional conservatism in our expectations for North America production. We are forecasting active weighted global vehicle production to be down 3% for the year, reflecting approximately 92 million units. Regionally, we expect strong full year revenue growth in North America despite production down 5%, driven by content growth with key customers, including the D3, which represents over half our revenue for the region.

現在轉到第 14 張投影片和 2025 年的宏觀預期。雖然我們的展望並未反映潛在貿易政策變化的直接影響，但我們在對北美生產的預期中納入了額外的保守主義。我們預測今年全球汽車產量將下降 3%，約 9,200 萬輛。從地區來看，儘管北美地區的產量下降了 5%，但我們預計全年收入將實現強勁增長，這得益於包括 D3 在內的主要客戶的內容增長，D3 佔了我們該地區收入的一半以上。

Europe production down as major European OEMs transition from ICE to electrified vehicle platforms, which are expected to grow approximately 20% year-over-year. And China production flat with local finite OEMs continue to win share from multinational joint ventures. Given the dynamics as well as -- are accelerating traction with local players we are on track to exit the year approaching market parity on China revenue.

由於歐洲主要原始設備製造商從 ICE 轉向電動車平台，歐洲產量下降，預計將年增約 20%。中國的生產持平，本地有限的原始設備製造商繼續從跨國合資企業中贏得份額。考慮到當前的情況以及與本土企業的加速合作，我們預計在今年年底實現中國市場收入與市場持平。

Moving to slide 15 and our full year 2025, full year outlook. While we expect a lower vehicle production environment, we remain confident that our continuous improvement initiatives will drive strong operating performance and cash flow generation going forward. Given the volatility in production schedules last year, we also want to provide guidance on our expectations for the first quarter.

前往第 15 張投影片，了解我們的 2025 年全年展望。儘管我們預期汽車產量會下降，但我們仍然相信，我們的持續改善措施將推動未來強勁的營運表現和現金流產生。考慮到去年生產計畫的波動，我們也想為第一季的預期提供指引。

First quarter revenue is expected to be in the range of $4.6 billion to $4.8 billion, down 3% at the midpoint. Operating income and adjusted EPS are expected to be $520 million and $1.50 at the midpoint of the range, respectively. Our full year outlook for revenue is in the range of $19.6 billion to $20.4 billion, up 2% at the midpoint year-over-year, reflecting ASUX up mid-single digits, ECG up low single digits and EDS flat. EBITDA and operating income are expected to be approximately $3.19 billion, and $2.42 billion at the midpoint, reflecting flow-through on sales growth and performance and cost reduction initiatives offsetting labor headwinds.

預計第一季營收在 46 億美元至 48 億美元之間，中位數下降 3%。預計營業收入和調整後每股收益分別為 5.2 億美元和 1.50 美元（位於區間中間值）。我們對全年營收的預期是在 196 億美元到 204 億美元之間，按中點計算同比增長 2%，其中 ASUX 增長中等個位數，ECG 增長低個位數，EDS 持平。 EBITDA 和營業收入預計約為 31.9 億美元，中間值預計為 24.2 億美元，反映銷售成長和業績及成本削減措施抵消了勞動力阻力的影響。

Adjusted earnings per share is estimated to be in the range of $7 and $7.60, up 17% at the midpoint, with operating cash flow of $2.1 billion, and capital expenditures at approximately 4.5% of revenue.

調整後每股盈餘預計在 7 美元至 7.60 美元之間，中間值成長 17%，營運現金流為 21 億美元，資本支出約佔營收的 4.5%。

On slide 16, we provide a bridge of 2025 revenue and operating income guidance as compared to 2024. Starting with revenue, sales growth of over $500 million is expected to be driven by Active Safety, up high single digits year-over-year and low voltage and high voltage on electrified platforms up low double digits. We expect annual price declines within the historical range of down 1.5% to 2%, offset by commodities and recoveries. And FX is estimated to be a headwind of $200 million.

在投影片 16 上，我們提供了 2025 年收入和營業收入指引（與 2024 年相比）的橋樑。我們預計年度價格跌幅將在歷史範圍內，為 1.5% 至 2%，但將被大宗商品和復甦所抵銷。而外匯預計將帶來 2 億美元的逆風。

Turning to adjusted operating income. We expect margin expansion of 10 basis points at the midpoint of our guide, driven by flow-through on incremental sales, partially offset by net price, commodities and FX, while performance initiatives are expected to offset incremental labor inflation.

轉向調整後的營業收入。我們預期利潤率將在我們的指導中點擴大 10 個基點，這主要得益於增量銷售額的流轉，部分被淨價格、商品和外匯所抵消，而業績舉措預計將抵消增量勞動力通膨。

Slide 17 provides further detail on adjusted EPS. Building on our strong performance last year and year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 17% is driven by volume flow-through, partially offset by higher tax expense due to the OECD Pillar 2 implementation and our proactive capital allocation actions, including share repurchases and our reduced equity holdings in Motional.

幻燈片 17 提供了有關調整後每股收益的更多詳細資訊。基於我們去年強勁的業績表現，調整後每股收益同比增長 17%，這主要得益於銷量流轉，但因實施 OECD 第二支柱和我們採取的積極資本配置行動（包括股票回購和減少持有 Motional 的股權）導致的稅費增加，部分抵消了這一增長。

Before handing the call back to Kevin, I would like to touch upon our cash flow outlook. While we generated a record $2.4 billion in operating cash flow in 2024, we expect 2025 to be impacted by a return to growth and a strategic inventory build of semiconductors in anticipation of possible shortages in late 2025, and early 2026, which we will calibrate based on availability and demand forecasts. We will also continue to maintain a balanced approach to capital allocation, including investing in the business to drive innovation that will deliver sustainable profitable growth.

在把電話交還給凱文之前，我想先談談我們的現金流前景。雖然我們在 2024 年創造了創紀錄的 24 億美元營運現金流，但我們預計 2025 年將受到恢復成長和半導體戰略庫存建設的影響，以應對 2025 年底和 2026 年初可能出現的短缺，我們將根據供應情況和需求預測進行調整。我們也將繼續保持平衡的資本配置方式，包括投資業務以推動創新，以實現永續獲利成長。

And while we increased leverage last year to return capital to shareholders, including the $3 billion ASR, we are ahead of our commitment to delever our balance sheet. Building on our debt paydown in the fourth quarter, as I mentioned earlier, and stronger performance in cash, we have retired an additional $250 million year-to-date. Thereby extinguishing the term loan A in its entirety and bringing our total debt pay down in the last two months to $1.4 billion. We also plan to accelerate further debt paydown into the first half of 2025. We will consider utilizing excess cash to explore bolt-on M&A opportunities and opportunistically return capital to shareholders, all within the parameters of investment-grade ratings.

雖然我們去年增加了槓桿率來向股東返還資本，包括 30 億美元的 ASR，但我們已提前履行了降低資產負債表槓桿率的承諾。正如我之前提到的，我們在第四季度償還了債務，現金表現更加強勁，今年迄今我們已額外償還了 2.5 億美元。從而全部償還定期貸款 A，並使我們過去兩個月的總債務償還降至 14 億美元。我們也計劃在 2025 年上半年加速進一步償還債務。

With that, I'd now like to hand the call back to Kevin for his closing remarks.

說完這些，我現在想把電話交還給凱文，請他作最後發言。

Thanks, Varun. I'll wrap up on slide 19 before opening the line for questions. As the management team reflects on 2024, we expect the market to remain dynamic and the pace of innovation to continue to accelerate and drive ongoing transformation across industries.

謝謝，瓦倫。在開始回答問題之前，我將結束第 19 張投影片的演講。當管理團隊回顧 2024 年時，我們預期市場將保持活力，創新步伐將繼續加快並推動各產業的持續轉型。

Looking forward, while our 2025 guidance does not include the impact of future policy changes, including tariffs, we believe that we've taken an appropriately conservative approach to our outlook. We've purpose-built our technology portfolio to deliver flexible, high-performance and cost-effective solutions that address our customers' needs all on a global scale. And at the same time, we remain committed to flawlessly executing and delivering a strong operational performance enabling us to unlock incremental profitability and deliver long-term value to our shareholders.

展望未來，雖然我們的 2025 年指引不包括關稅等未來政策變化的影響，但我們相信，我們對前景採取了適當保守的態度。我們專門建立了我們的技術組合，以提供靈活、高效且經濟高效的解決方案，滿足全球客戶的需求。同時，我們仍致力於完美執行並提供強勁的營運業績，使我們能夠釋放增量獲利能力並為股東帶來長期價值。

In closing, I'm proud of what the Aptiv team accomplished during 2024 and I'm excited about what we'll deliver in the years ahead.

最後，我為 Aptiv 團隊在 2024 年的成就感到自豪，並對我們未來幾年將取得的成就感到興奮。

Operator, I will now open the line for questions.

接線員，現在我將開始回答您的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

John Murphy, Bank of America.

美國銀行的約翰‧墨菲。

Kevin, just a first question on your statement that you've taken somewhat of a conservative outlook, which is totally understandable given what's going on in the world and the country in the US right now. But when you look at that down 5% in North America, if we said that was closer to flat, it seems like it would add, I don't know, $360 million, $370 million more of sales roughly. If that were to occur, what kind of incremental margin, and I'm saying if, right? I mean it's a big if, what kind of incremental margin do you think you would get on those incremental sales, if that were to occur?

凱文，第一個問題是關於你的聲明，你採取了一些保守的觀點，考慮到目前世界和美國國內正在發生的事情，這是完全可以理解的。但當你看到北美的銷售額下降了 5% 時，如果我們說這更接近持平，那麼似乎會增加，我不知道，大約 3.6 億美元或 3.7 億美元的銷售額。如果發生這種情況，會有什麼樣的增量利潤，我是說如果，對嗎？我的意思是，這是一個很大的如果，如果發生這種情況，您認為您會從這些增量銷售中獲得什麼樣的增量利潤？

So John, let me start with just a preface on it. Just in light of a couple of things. One, just the dynamics from a geopolitical standpoint, the dynamics as it relates to policy, whether that be trade, whether it be tariffs, whether it be tax. We think it's very, very important at this point in time to be more conservative, quite frankly. And then when you overlay on top of that, the fact that inventories in North America are still relatively high, especially for the D3 where we have a fair amount of exposure.

那麼約翰，讓我先作一個序言。僅考慮幾件事。首先，從地緣政治的角度來看，這種動態與政策有關，無論是貿易、關稅或稅收。坦白說，我們認為此時此刻採取更保守的立場非常非常重要。然後，當你疊加這一點時，你會發現北美的庫存仍然相對較高，尤其是對於我們有相當多敞口的 D3 而言。

That's something that we're watching closely as well. As we look at the first quarter and the early part of this year, a lot of progress has been made reducing that during the fourth quarter of last year, but inventories still remain relatively high. So as we came into the year and we thought about the first quarter that was the context or the lens that we were viewing it through.

這也是我們正在密切關注的事情。回顧今年第一季和年初，雖然庫存減少幅度比去年第四季有了很大進展，但庫存仍然相對較高。因此，當我們進入新的一年並思考第一季時，這就是我們看待它的背景或視角。

As it relates to vehicle production in North America being stronger in the first quarter, it's a possibility. Again, it's not in our guidance. We would expect volumes to flow in the range that we've traditionally talked about in that 18% to 22% sort of flow-through range on volume. But again, we've not included that in our guidance, and we've done that very intentionally just given the environment right now.

由於這與第一季北美汽車產量強勁有關，因此這是一種可能性。再說一遍，這不在我們的指導範圍內。我們預計流量將在我們傳統上談論的 18% 到 22% 的範圍內。但同樣，我們沒有將其納入我們的指導中，而且我們這樣做是出於當前的環境考慮。

Okay. And then just a second follow-up on slide 5 of the $31 billion of gross bookings. There's another big, big year for you. As you kind of walk forward two to three years out, has anything changed in sort of the mix of customers in China? And are you shifting more quickly towards the domestics than you were previously. Just curious how you -- if there are any updated thoughts there.

好的。然後，我們再針對第 5 張投影片中提到的 310 億美元的總預訂量進行第二次追蹤。對你來說，又將會是個非常重要的一年。如果展望未來兩到三年，中國的客戶結構有什麼改變嗎？你們是否比以前更快轉向國內業務？只是好奇你——是否有任何更新的想法。

Well, I'm not sure if it's more rapid. It's been rapid in the last 12 or 24 months. I think we picked up roughly 10 points of share with mix with local Chinese OEMs during 2024, maybe a little bit less than that. I think our outlook for 2025 is a full 10 points increase. So at the end of 2025, early 2026, we should be at parity with market mix in terms of vehicle production of locals, versus the multinationals. So we've made a lot of progress, and that's what accounts for as you look at our outlook for the full year relative to where we are guiding in the first quarter, that's some of the pickup in revenue that we're seeing now, and we expect to continue through the balance of 2025.

嗯，我不確定它是否更快。在過去的 12 到 24 個月裡，它發展得非常迅速。我認為，到 2024 年，我們將與中國本土 OEM 廠商的混合車型市場佔有率提高約 10 個百分點，甚至可能略低於這個數字。我認為我們對 2025 年的展望將整整增加 10 個百分點。因此，到 2025 年底或 2026 年初，我們在本土汽車產量和跨國汽車產量方面的市場組合應該與市場結構持平。因此，我們取得了很大進展，這就是為什麼當您查看我們對全年的展望時，相對於我們在第一季度的預期，這是我們現在看到的收入增長的原因之一，我們預計這種增長將持續到 2025 年。

Joe Spak, UBS.

瑞銀的喬·斯帕克（Joe Spak）

Kevin, maybe just going back to sort of the conservatism comment. Are there any other areas of the outlook that you'd highlight besides that sort of adjustment to North American production? And somewhat related, I mean, just the growth over market, which I know is not sort of an official metric anymore, but implied in North America, maybe just some commentary on what's driving that for the year.

凱文，也許只是回到保守主義的評論。除了對北美生產進行調整之外，還有其他方面您要強調嗎？而且有點相關的是，我的意思是，只是市場成長，我知道這不再是一種官方指標，而是隱含在北美，可能只是對今年推動因素的一些評論。

Yeah. Again, as it relates to conservatism overall, the bulk of it sits in North America. I would say Europe and US, we have a more conservative outlook for EV growth market right now.

是的。再次，就其與整體保守主義的關係而言，其大部分集中在北美。我想說，歐洲和美國目前對電動車成長市場的前景持更保守的態度。

I believe IHS is forecasting roughly 20% growth in EV production. Our outlook from a revenue standpoint is roughly 10% plus so mid-single digits. So we've taken a more conservative approach from our revenue outlook given our experience last year. As you look at growth over market in North America, I would say it's really a couple of things. It's pace of launch cadence back half of this year and into the start of next year.

我相信 IHS 預測電動車產量將成長約 20%。從收入角度來看，我們的預期大約是 10% 以上，也就是中位數個位數。因此，根據去年的經驗，我們對收入前景採取了更保守的態度。當你觀察北美市場的成長時，我會說這實際上有幾件事。這是今年上半年和明年年初的發布節奏。

So new program launches were up roughly 10% last year versus the prior year. A lot of that was really starting in Q2 through Q3 and Q4, and we'll benefit from that. And then I would say, Joe, there's a little bit of a normalization as it relates to a couple of the OEMs where we saw significant corrections or reductions in their vehicle production schedules in 2024, especially in the third and fourth quarters. We expect that to effectively normalize and not see the same level of decline. So I'd refer to it as stability basically in schedules.

因此，去年新計畫啟動數量比前年增加了約 10%。其中許多實際上是從第二季到第三季和第四季開始的，我們將從中受益。然後我想說，喬，這與一些 OEM 相關的情況有些正常化，我們看到他們在 2024 年的汽車生產計劃進行了重大調整或減少，尤其是在第三季和第四季。我們預計這種情況將有效正常化，不會出現同樣程度的下降。因此我將其基本稱為時間表的穩定性。

Okay. I guess, just as a second question, this is, I know bigger picture because there's obviously a lot going on. But it sounds like the automakers as they, I guess, should be, at least have some contingency planning scenarios if they have to react to tariffs even if my impression is that still might be a lower probability. But I guess, I'm sure you're doing something similar from a contingency plan perspective. I am curious though, if any of those OEM conversations have cascaded down to you? Because if anything like this award to need to occur, there would obviously need to be some pretty meaningful coordination and time and validation and ramp up. So I guess I just want to understand how you guys are internally planning for this and the level of coordination across the value --

好的。我想，就像第二個問題一樣，我知道更大的圖景，因為顯然有很多事情正在發生。但我想，這聽起來像是汽車製造商至少應該有一些應急計劃方案，以應對關稅問題，即使我的印像是這種可能性仍然較低。但我想，我確信從應急計劃的角度來看你會做類似的事情。不過我很好奇，這些 OEM 對話是否已經傳到您那裡了？因為如果需要頒發這樣的獎項，顯然需要一些非常有意義的協調、時間、驗證和提升。所以我想我只是想了解你們內部是如何規劃這一點的，以及整個價值鏈的協調程度——

Yeah. I would say the level of coordination is pretty good. I think the magnitude of what was initially proposed regarding tariffs within North America from an industry standpoint was a bit surprising. But I would say we've been working with our OEM customers late last year, early this year as it relates to where possible, for deploying inventory. As we've talked about a lot last year in terms of supply chain and supply chain visibility, that's something that we're very closely connected with our OEMs globally on.

是的。我想說協調程度非常好。我認為，從產業角度來看，最初提出的北美關稅規模有點令人驚訝。但我想說的是，從去年年底到今年年初，我們一直在與我們的 OEM 客戶合作，盡可能地部署庫存。正如我們去年在供應鏈和供應鏈可視性方面討論過很多次的那樣，這是我們與全球原始設備製造商密切聯繫的事情。

We spent a lot of time with our North American OEMs making sure they understand our supply chains well. So we've developed, I would say, at least near-term plans in terms of addressing some of the challenges that if there was a flip of a switch, how we would deal with that, including investments in inventory, including areas where we have duplicate manufacturing in North America and other regions.

我們花了很多時間與北美原始設備製造商合作，確保他們充分了解我們的供應鏈。因此，我想說，我們至少制定了近期計劃來應對一些挑戰，如果出現變化，我們將如何應對，包括庫存投資，包括我們在北美和其他地區重複製造的領域。

And then some discussion, I wouldn't call them firm plans at this point in time, but some discussions about alignment of their production schedules and importantly, product mix to simplify the situation so that we can pre-produce products in certain areas where it's a little bit more complicated to do, for example, wire harnesses, products like that. So I would say we're reasonably coordinated to the extent this gets implemented. But ultimately, obviously, it would be somewhat disruptive.

然後進行一些討論，目前我還不能稱之為確定的計劃，但是會進行一些關於調整生產計劃以及更重要的是產品組合的討論，以簡化情況，這樣我們就可以在某些比較複雜的領域進行預生產，例如線束之類的產品。因此我想說，我們在實施這項措施的範圍內是合理協調的。但最終，顯然這會造成一定程度的破壞。

Chris McNally, Evercore.

克里斯‧麥克納利 (Evercore)。

Just you can see the tone of everyone's questions is around the conservatism in the guidance in Q1, Kevin, particularly around the volatility we've seen in mix over the last two years. I think one of the things that we all struggle with is the discussion of production that you gave out for Q1. And for you, you look below IHS, minus 5%, minus 3%. But that's probably on an active regionally adjusted basis. Have you looked at those numbers for top customers where your top customers are for Q1 and full year, just so we can have a sense of how much the conservatism is built in?

凱文，你可以看到，每個人的問題基調都圍繞著第一季指引的保守性，特別是圍繞著過去兩年我們所看到的混合波動性。我認為我們所有人都在努力解決的問題之一就是您在第一季討論的生產問題。對你來說，你看 IHS 以下，減去 5%，減去 3%。但這可能是在積極的區域調整基礎上的。您是否查看過第一季和全年主要客戶的數據，以便我們了解保守主義的程度？

Yeah. Listen, we're not going to provide kind of specific customer sort of production schedules, right, Chris, and you understand that. Is our estimate for production lower than what customer schedules currently show, yes, they are. They are in our forecasting process and guidance process and planning process we've gone through customer by customer, platform by platform, region by region. So we've gone through it in detail. Have those been haircut, yes. Have they been haircut more than they typically are for the first quarter, yes.

是的。聽著，我們不會向特定客戶提供某種生產計劃，對吧，克里斯，你明白這一點。我們的生產預估是否低於客戶目前的計畫？它們在我們的預測過程、指導過程和規劃過程中，我們針對每個客戶、每個平台、每個地區進行過審核。我們已經詳細討論了這一點。這些被剪掉了嗎？他們的減記是否比第一季的通常情況要多？

Last year was volatile though. As you said, we don't want to go through that again. But then overlay on top of that, what we do worry about is just given some of the announcements regarding trade policy and tariffs that does introduce a certain amount of uncertainty into the system, which, in our view, will affect supply chains and when it affects supply chains, it will affect production. It's tough to predict exactly how much but it will. So we've gone through that process and to the best as we can as we could estimated what we thought Q1 could look like in light of some element of that uncertainty. I know that's not a detailed answer, but we try to be very responsible --

然而，去年卻是動盪的一年。正如你所說，我們不想再經歷那種事情。但除此之外，我們真正擔心的是，一些有關貿易政策和關稅的公告確實為系統帶來了一定程度的不確定性，我們認為，這將影響供應鏈，而當它影響供應鏈時，就會影響生產。很難預測具體會有多少，但確實會。因此，我們經歷了這個過程，並盡我們所能，根據一些不確定因素，估計了我們認為第一季的情況。我知道這不是一個詳細的答案，但我們盡量負責任——

Yeah. And Kevin, I was at I think trying to figure out March depending upon how tariffs sort of across the street on has really done. So that's actually super helpful. And you did call out North America, I think, which is where the concern lies, particularly when we've seen two of the three OEMs who had good years sort of last year already being cautious on Q1 and you mentioned the third who was in a rebound. Just a simple one for me. I don't know if this has been answered yet. I apologize if it has just sort of peso benefit year-over-year, we've been sort of waiting for it. We got a little bit of help in the second half. But with peso at '21, should this be a tailwind of material form to margin in '25?

是的。凱文，我想弄清楚 3 月的關稅情況究竟如何。這確實非常有幫助。我認為您確實提到了北美，這是令人擔憂的地方，特別是當我們看到三家 OEM 廠商中兩家在去年表現不錯，但在第一季度卻表現謹慎，而您提到的第三家廠商則處於反彈之中。對我來說這只是一個簡單的問題。我不知道這個問題是否已經得到解答。如果它只是逐年增加比索收益，我深感抱歉，我們一直在等待它。下半場我們得到了一點幫助。但是，隨著比索匯率達到 21，這是否應該成為 25 年利潤率的實質順風？

Chris, it's Varun out here. Listen, it's all about managing risk, right? And so we tend to take out hedges, and that basically is what it is. So no, we don't really expect it to -- we've kind of covered that risk for 2025.

克里斯，我是瓦倫。聽著，這都是為了管理風險，對吧？因此，我們傾向於採取對沖措施，基本上就是這樣。所以，我們實際上並不期望這種情況發生——我們已經為 2025 年涵蓋了這種風險。

Yeah. So no big tailwind as it relates to peso weakening, if that -- if that continues to happen.

是的。因此，如果這種情況持續發生，那麼比索貶值就不會帶來太大的利多。

Dan Levy, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的丹‧利維 (Dan Levy)。

Wanted to ask about the China commentary, which shows that you're expecting some underperformance versus the China market. Is this just a continuation of what we saw in 2025 -- 2024, where it was just a couple of key customers that were dragging down results, but you're still growing with the domestic. Maybe you could just provide a little more color on the expectations within China and the domestic versus multinational split?

想問一下有關中國的評論，這表明您預計其表現會遜於中國市場。這是否只是我們在 2025 年至 2024 年所看到的情況的延續？ 當時只有幾個關鍵客戶拖累了業績，但您仍在國內市場成長。或許您可以更詳細地介紹中國國內的預期，以及國內和跨國企業的差距？

Yeah. We expect China locals to continue to take significant share not to the extent that they did in 2024, but they'll continue to take significant share. We expect the multinational -- global multinational traditional OEMs to continue to lose a fairly significant share that's factored into our outlook. I think the net impact for us is our revenue growth versus vehicle production in China is basically our growth over vehicle production is down 1% versus what it was in 2024.

是的。我們預期中國本土企業將繼續佔據重要份額，雖然不會像 2024 年那麼大，但他們仍將佔據重要份額。我們預計跨國公司——全球跨國傳統 OEM 將繼續失去相當大的份額，這已經計入我們的前景中。我認為，對我們來說，淨影響是，我們的收入成長與中國汽車產量相比，基本上與 2024 年相比汽車產量的成長下降了 1%。

So we're closing that gap. We have internally a more I'd say, aggressive outlook for China local share gain relative to what IHS has. I mean, we're north of 75% share gain in 2025. So we expect them to continue to take some share. And as I mentioned, we'll reduce the differential in growth versus market down to about roughly 1 point. And then in 2026, as I mentioned, we're at parity.

所以我們正在縮小這個差距。我認為，與 IHS 相比，我們內部對中國本地股票成長的預期更為積極。我的意思是，到 2025 年，我們的份額將增長 75% 以上。正如我所提到的，我們將把成長與市場的差距縮小到大約 1 個百分點。然後到 2026 年，正如我所提到的，我們將達到平價。

Okay. And the underlying domestic growth that's in line with sort of where the market is?

好的。國內基本成長與市場現況是否一致？

The underlying outlook for domestic growth, our outlook is slightly higher than what IHS would have for vehicle production growth and our growth with those customers is over their market share growth rate. So we're growing over market with the local OEMs in China.

對於國內成長的基本前景，我們的預期略高於 IHS 對汽車產量成長的預期，我們與這些客戶的成長速度超過了他們的市佔率成長率。因此，我們正在與中國本地的 OEM 一起擴大市場。

Okay. Great. As a follow-up, I wanted to ask about some of the cost actions, which you had talked about the third quarter call, I think there are a number of things you talked about salary reductions and flexing the workforce and material cost, manufacturing pricing. I see in your bridge that you're assuming some positive performance, but maybe you could just double-click on the extent to which you're seeing benefits on the cost actions, what's low-hanging fruit versus what's going to take a little more effort to achieve on the cost side.

好的。偉大的。作為後續問題，我想問您在第三季電話會議上談到的一些成本行動，我認為您談到了許多關於減薪、靈活調配勞動力、材料成本和製造定價的事情。我看到在你的橋樑中你假設了一些積極的表現，但也許你可以雙擊你在成本行動中看到的好處的程度，什麼是唾手可得的成果，什麼是在成本方面需要付出更多努力才能實現的成果。

Maybe I'll start at a high level and Varun can answer in more detail, if that's okay. The last couple of years -- the last several years, we've been very focused on reducing overhead. You've heard us talk about that. Last year, we had roughly a 10% reduction in salaried workforce, this year within our plan. We were targeting mid-single digits.

如果可以的話，也許我會從較高的層次開始，然後 Varun 可以更詳細地回答。過去幾年，我們一直非常注重削減開銷。您已經聽過我們談論此事。去年，我們的受薪員工減少了大約 10％，今年也在我們的計劃之內。我們的目標是中等個位數。

Given what we're hearing regarding trade, trade policy, we'll be increasing that to some extent, just to provide additional room and offset any incremental risk that's out there. So those are our activities that we have a pretty good muscle for. I think as it relates to -- when you think about footprint rotation, that requires a bit more effort, but it's something that obviously we do. When you think about material cost savings, there's two aspects to that. There's the leveraging price to price, which the team has done a great job.

根據我們聽到的有關貿易、貿易政策的消息，我們將在一定程度上增加這筆金額，只是為了提供額外的空間並抵消任何額外的風險。所以這些都是我們擁有相當強的肌肉可以進行的活動。我認為這與——當你考慮足跡輪換時，這需要更多的努力，但這顯然是我們所做的事情。當你考慮材料成本節省時，有兩個方面需要考慮。透過價格槓桿來實現價格平衡，團隊在這方面做得非常出色。

I think the mapping of our supply chain, building our digital twin and significantly increasing visibility to bond costs and where there's leverage that's paying dividends, although it requires negotiation. It requires effort, negotiate with both customer and supplier. And then when you think about what's more permanent engineering in low-cost solutions or engineering out higher cost components.

我認為，繪製我們的供應鏈圖、建立我們的數位孿生並顯著提高債券成本的可見性以及哪裡有槓桿可以帶來紅利，儘管這需要談判。這需要努力，與客戶和供應商進行協商。然後，當您考慮什麼是更具持久性的低成本解決方案工程或設計出更高成本的組件時。

That's something the group or the team has been doing for the last couple of years. And a big portion of our year-over-year material performance in 2025 will be the result of that. It's important to note, though, that to do that, it requires support from our OEM customers. And at times, customers giving constraints on resources are less focused on it, but that's an area that we've made a lot of progress.

這是該團體或團隊過去幾年一直在做的事情。我們 2025 年的同比材料表現很大一部分將源自於此。但值得注意的是，要做到這一點，需要我們的 OEM 客戶的支援。有時，對資源有限制的客戶對此不太關注，但這是我們取得巨大進展的領域。

No, Kevin. I think that's comprehensive.

不，凱文。我認為這很全面。

Emmanuel Rosner, Wolfe Research.

伊曼紐爾·羅斯納（Emmanuel Rosner），沃爾夫研究公司。

My first question is around the outlook for EDS, I wanted to zoom in to it because it will obviously be its own stock soon enough and investors need to understand how to value it.

我的第一個問題是關於 EDS 的前景，我想深入探討一下，因為顯然它很快就會成為自己的股票，投資者需要了解如何對其進行估值。

So basically looks like revenues was down 6% in 2024. In your guidance for 2025, you assume stable revenue in EDS. And then obviously, when you announced the future spin-off mid-single digit is sort of like the midterm target in terms of growth for it. So can you maybe just give a little bit of color on what you expect for this year? Why just stable if electrification accelerates a little bit maybe in Europe? And then what will drive this acceleration to mid-single digit through 2028?

因此基本上看起來 2024 年的收入下降了 6%。顯然，當您宣布未來分拆時，中等個位數的成長有點像中期成長目標。那麼能否稍微透露一下您對今年的期望呢？如果歐洲的電氣化進程稍微加速的話，為什麼只是保持穩定呢？那麼，到 2028 年，有什麼因素將推動這個成長率達到個位數的中等水準呢？

Yeah, Emmanuel, so adjusted growth for EDS in 2024 was down 5%. A big driver of that were the customers we mentioned, but then an incremental overlay as it relates to high voltage or EV exposure. So put it in perspective, high-voltage revenues for the EDS business were down just shy of 20% in 2024 so significant impact throughout the year.

是的，Emmanuel，因此 2024 年 EDS 的調整後成長率下降了 5%。其中一個重要驅動因素是我們提到的客戶，但隨後又出現了與高壓或電動車暴露相關的增量覆蓋範圍。因此，從這個角度來看，EDS 業務的高壓收入在 2024 年下降了近 20%，因此全年影響重大。

Our outlook for growth in 2025 is basically flat growth. So about 3 points over global vehicle production in terms of our outlook for average weighted market growth. When you look at our view for EV penetration adoption and the impact on overall growth rate, we would expect roughly a mid-double-digit growth in EDF in the EV space to be a driver as well as strong growth with commercial vehicle OEMs who we've had a concerted effort over the last couple of years to diversify revenues more broadly in transportation so the benefit there.

我們對2025年的成長預測基本上是持平成長。因此，從我們對平均加權市場成長的預測來看，全球汽車產量將比預期高出約 3 個百分點。當您查看我們對電動車普及率採用的看法及其對整體成長率的影響時，我們預計 EDF 在電動車領域的成長將大致達到兩位數的中段，同時也會推動商用車原始設備製造商實現強勁成長。

So we would say as we look at the -- at 2025, those are the primary drivers. As we look at beyond 2025, it's the continued pace of EV adoption its continued market share gains. We talked about our bookings in EDFs in 2024, how strong they were. They were actually strong in 2023 as well. So it's low voltage as well as high-voltage growth market share penetration and the roll-on of those new programs will drive growth in the out years beyond 2025.

因此，我們會說，展望 2025 年，這些是主要驅動因素。展望 2025 年後，電動車的普及步伐將持續加快，其市佔率將持續成長。我們討論了 2024 年 EDF 的預訂情況，以及預訂量有多大。事實上，他們在 2023 年也表現強勁。因此，低壓和高壓成長市場份額的滲透率以及這些新項目的推出將推動 2025 年以後的成長。

Got it. And then I wanted to come back on the potential for cost reductions. So in the -- in this year's guidance, you have about $400 million of performance offsetting essentially labor economics and increased depreciation. What is the potential for Aptiv to take further cost actions or the appetite for it beyond just sort of like performance and efficiencies. We've seen some other suppliers meaningfully scale back maybe RD&E based on maybe a slower pace of electrification than previously anticipated. Is there room to do something that is sort of like more structural? Or have those actions already been taken and now it's really about offsetting the economics?

知道了。然後我想再次討論降低成本的潛力。因此，在今年的指導中，您將獲得約 4 億美元的績效補償，主要是勞動力經濟學和增加的折舊。 Aptiv 採取進一步成本行動的潛力有多大？我們看到其他一些供應商可能由於電氣化速度比之前預期的要慢而大幅縮減研發與工程規模。是否有空間來做一些更具結構性的事情？或者這些行動已經採取了，現在真的是為了抵銷經濟影響？

Yeah. Listen, there's always an opportunity, Emmanuel. So we're always focused on it. I mentioned to you what we're doing from payroll reduction. So that will continue. Footprint rotation, especially within the EDS business, has been accelerated. So we'll get benefits there as well. Material cost is a big piece of what we -- a big piece of our cost structure in the bond for BOM as it relates to bill material for OEMs.

是的。聽著，機會總是有的，伊曼紐。因此我們始終關注它。我向你提到了我們在削減工資方面所採取的措施。這種情況將會持續下去。業務佈局輪換，尤其是EDS業務內部的輪換，已加快。因此我們也會從中受益。材料成本是我們成本結構中很重要的一部分，因為它與 OEM 的物料清單有關。

So that's an area that we're really focused. From an engineering standpoint, we had a lot of productivity out of engineering in 2024. I mean a lot and we did that principally by -- it wasn't about reducing advanced engineering or R&D. It was more about operating engineering, so program launch, manufacturing engineering within our facilities. Software development engineering within ASUX. So those were areas where we were able to get that productivity. And we'd expect to continue to get productivity out of engineering in 2025. Transparently, it won't be as significant as it was in 2024, just given the size of the change in 2024.

所以這是我們真正關注的領域。從工程角度來看，2024 年我們的工程生產力將大幅提升。它更多地涉及操作工程，因此是程序啟動，以及我們設施內的製造工程。 ASUX 內部的軟體開發工程。所以這些都是我們能夠提高生產力的領域。我們預計到 2025 年，工程生產力將繼續提高。

Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

A bit longer-term question, if I may. You mentioned aerospace and defense in the SP&S and also like diversifying your TAM within Wind River as well. I'm curious who are you winning business with, how significant is the aerospace and defense contribution today? And I'm curious how big this could be. Any other TAM that you might describe here because your customers I believe, especially post spin, if you only anchor your revenue to the auto industry and the legacy auto industry, there are scenarios where those companies are going to be much, much smaller and many of them won't exist.

如果可以的話，這是一個比較長期的問題。您提到了 SP&S 中的航空航太和國防，並且還提到了在 Wind River 內部實現 TAM 多元化。我很好奇您與誰贏得了生意，今天航空航太和國防的貢獻有多大？我很好奇這個數字到底有多大。您可能在這裡描述的任何其他 TAM，因為我相信您的客戶，特別是在分拆後，如果您僅將收入錨定在汽車行業和傳統汽車行業，那麼這些公司將會變得小得多，其中許多公司將不復存在。

So if I even see kind of a gold standard of Western EV, Tesla, they're effectively -- they're pillaging resources, getting resources out of the traditional electric vehicle market into other markets, even humanoids and things. That gives you a very unique perspective, I think, of those next TAM. So I didn't know if you in the board are kind of actively tracking this and any messages that you had for investors today, thinking longer term of the surface area between what you do and other expressions of smart machines beyond just cars?

所以，如果我甚至看到西方電動車的黃金標準，例如特斯拉，那麼他們實際上正在掠奪資源，將資源從傳統的電動車市場轉移到其他市場，甚至是人類汽車和其他東西。我認為這為您提供了對下一個 TAM 的非常獨特的視角。所以我不知道董事會是否在積極跟踪這一情況，以及您今天是否向投資者傳達了任何信息，從長遠來看，您是否在考慮您所做的事情與汽車以外的智能機器的其他表現形式之間的結合面？

Yeah. No, Adam, it is a great question. And I would say it's one of the big pillars of our strategy that the Board has us focused on in terms of diversification into adjacent markets, accelerating that, making sure that's a priority from a business plan, the strategy and quite frankly, from a compensation standpoint. Aerospace and defense is one of those priority markets.

是的。不，亞當，這是一個很好的問題。我想說，這是我們策略的重要支柱之一，董事會讓我們專注於鄰近市場的多元化發展，加速這一進程，確保從商業計劃、策略，坦白說，從薪酬的角度來看，這都是優先事項。航空航太和國防是優先市場之一。

There are applications, as you mentioned, from what we do now in those markets today within the A&D space, when you consider what we have within the SPS business and ASUX business is probably about $400 million in revenues, growing fast. It's a higher margin profile. It is a longer selling cycle, but we have strong relationships with all of the primes in the A&D space as well as the various parts of the armed forces.

正如您所說，從我們目前在 A&D 領域的市場表現來看，有一些應用，考慮到我們的 SPS 業務和 ASUX 業務的收入可能約為 4 億美元，並且迅速增長。這是一種更高的利潤率。這是一個較長的銷售週期，但我們與 A&D 領域的所有主要企業以及武裝部隊的各個部門都保持著牢固的關係。

So they're existing customers today, and we're looking to leverage the position that Wind River has and that our portfolio of businesses within Winchester have to continue to penetrate that market. And obviously, it's going to be a high-growth market. I'd say the second area outside aerospace and defense is in around energy and energy distribution.

所以他們現在是現有客戶，我們希望利用 Wind River 的地位以及我們在溫徹斯特的業務組合繼續滲透該市場。顯然，這將是一個高成長的市場。我想說航空航太和國防以外的第二個領域是能源和能源分配。

There's a relationship that we have with a global EV OEM, where that's one of the areas where we've been awarded business, and we expect to continue to be awarded business and participate in that. So that is an exciting area. And then lastly, your point on robots, humanoids, others, whether it be the Edge software or it be from Wind River or it'd be the perception systems for ASUX or it be the vehicle architecture solutions or the wire harnesses and connectors from SPS. Those are all opportunities. And again, with -- there are a couple of customers that we're actually working on that specific area now. Those revenues aren't quite as significant at this point, though, to be transparent.

我們與一家全球電動車原始設備製造商建立了合作關係，這是我們獲得業務的領域之一，我們希望繼續獲得業務並參與其中。這是一個令人興奮的領域。最後，您對機器人、人形機器人等的觀點是，無論是 Edge 軟體，還是來自 Wind River 的軟體，或是 ASUX 的感知系統，或是車輛架構解決方案，或是 SPS 的線束和連接器。這些都是機會。再說一次，我們現在實際上正在與幾個客戶合作該特定領域。不過，坦白說，目前這些收入還不算太重要。

Thanks, Kevin. You guys made our humanoid 100, by the way. So congratulations, but I look forward to continuing the discussion. That's all I got.

謝謝，凱文。順便說一句，你們製造了我們的 100 個類人機器人。所以恭喜你，但我期待繼續討論。這就是我得到的全部。

Colin Langan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的科林·蘭根。

Just wanted to follow up on -- if I go through the margin walk on slide 16. Talked about the pace is not an issue this year. If I translate the FX, it would be smaller than $100 million drag. What is driving that headwinds for FX on margin? And also, what is the net pricing commodity? Is there a commodity headwind we should be thinking about too.

只是想跟進一下——如果我經過第 16 張幻燈片的邊線行走。如果我翻譯 FX，它將小於 1 億美元的阻力。外匯保證金面臨阻力的原因是什麼？還有，淨定價商品是什麼？我們是否也應該考慮大宗商品的逆風？

Yeah. Colin, its Varun out here. As I mentioned earlier with regards to the Mexican peso, we are largely hedged. So even a weakening of that currency really doesn't bring us any tailwinds and then with regards to the other commodity where we actively participate from a hedging perspective is copper. And then that's the other area where we essentially are hedged also. So again, it's all about managing risk for us. Within the FX and the commodity side of it. Clearly, there are some elements with regards to what create policy and stuff is coming through. And with the US dollar, we're still seeing some fluctuations out there. And while we are largely hedged for some of the major currencies, we do see some risk out there.

是的。科林，我是瓦倫。正如我之前提到的墨西哥比索，我們基本上進行了對沖。因此，即使該貨幣貶值也不會給我們帶來任何順風，而從對沖角度來看，我們積極參與的另一種商品是銅。這也是我們本質上進行對沖的另一個領域。所以，對我們來說，這一切都是為了管理風險。在外匯和商品方面。顯然，有一些因素與制定政策和正在實施的內容有關。至於美元，我們仍然看到一些波動。儘管我們對一些主要貨幣進行了較大範圍的對沖，但我們確實看到存在一些風險。

Yeah. Maybe if I can add to it, just -- so I think, Colin, the headwinds on FX are largely euro and R&D related okay? When you think about '24 to 2025, so just that sort of walk, as Varun said, from a copper standpoint, that's largely indexed with our customers. So that hedge remains in place. We hedge incremental amounts above what's not been -- what's not indexed, but that's not a huge amount. Those are the big pieces of that. As it relates to price and price recoveries, our expectation, I think we've talked about it is pricing to be somewhere between 1.5% and 2%.

是的。也許我可以補充一點，只是——所以我認為，科林，外匯方面的阻力主要與歐元和研發有關，好嗎？當您考慮 2024 年至 2025 年時，正如 Varun 所說，從銅的角度來看，這種步行很大程度上與我們的客戶有關。因此，這種對沖仍然存在。我們對未編入指數的增量金額進行對沖，但這不是很大的金額。這些都是其中最重要的部分。至於價格和價格復甦，我們的預期是，我想我們已經討論過了，價格將在 1.5% 到 2% 之間。

Historically, we've done a good job managing through that, as you know, we have some element of price recoveries in our plan, not remotely close to what we've had in historical periods. But there still is some element of labor recovery, especially as it relates to Mexico and still a few items related to material inflation from prior periods that we need to close out on.

從歷史上看，我們在管理方面做得很好，如你所知，我們的計劃中有一些價格復甦的因素，但與歷史時期的水平相差甚遠。但仍存在一些勞動力復甦的因素，特別是與墨西哥有關的因素，而且還有一些與前期物質通膨相關的項目需要我們解決。

Got it. And we talk a lot about trying to catch up with the mix with locals in China. There is growing concern about the profitability on that business because the product cycle is so short. It's kind of hard to sort of get your costs back from all the upfront investment. Any color on how your margins with China locals look today and whether you're able to kind of get the added sort of tooling costs given the shorter life cycle of products over there?

知道了。我們討論了很多有關嘗試與中國當地人融合的話題。由於產品週期非常短，人們越來越擔心該業務的獲利能力。從所有前期投資中收回成本是比較困難的。您能透露一下目前您與中國本土公司的利潤率如何嗎？

Yeah. So first, we're very selective in terms of those programs and customers we're pursuing. As we've -- you've heard us mentioned previously. We're really focused on those at one to either export or expand manufacturing outside of China. We feel like we can bring more value in those programs, quite frankly, have less price pressure.

是的。首先，我們對所追求的項目和客戶非常挑剔。正如我們——您之前已經聽過我們提到過。我們真正關注的是那些希望出口或擴大中國以外製造業的企業。我們覺得我們可以在這些項目中帶來更多價值，坦白說，價格壓力也更小。

On average, you do see lower margins on those programs. We've been able to balance it to date or I should say, lower pricing on those programs. We've been able to balance it to date with further cost reductions. So our China team has been consolidating footprint as an example to the extent we're investing in the development of new technologies.

平均而言，你確實會看到這些項目的利潤較低。到目前為止，我們已經能夠平衡這些項目的價格，或者應該說，降低這些項目的價格。到目前為止，我們已經能夠透過進一步降低成本來實現平衡。因此，我們的中國團隊一直在鞏固其影響力，以此作為對新技術開發進行投資的一個例子。

We're getting support from the Chinese government to the extent we're investing in engineering, we've used the opportunity to shift footprint out of, for instance, Shanghai into other locations west to lower our overall costs. And again, not only the hourly cost differential lower, but we've been able to get pretty good support from the Chinese government in terms of enabling that both from setting up a facility standpoint as well as subsidizing the employees so.

我們得到了中國政府在工程投資方面的支持，我們利用這個機會將業務範圍從上海轉移到西部的其他地方，以降低我們的整體成本。而且，不僅每小時的成本差異較低，而且我們還獲得了中國政府的大力支持，無論是從建立設施的角度，還是從補貼員工的角度。

Tom Narayan, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的湯姆‧納拉揚 (Tom Narayan)。

First question is on ASUX. We heard from one of the D3s last night that they're at a critical point in deciding on what to do with advanced autonomy, whether they work in-house or do more partnerships with others. And we've experienced your guys Level 2 plus demo at CES and quite impressive, not overly costly. Just curious, in recent months, you've experienced an increase in interest for advanced autonomy and on the flip side, the UX side, it seems to be structural kind of impediments there. Just curious how you see that business playing out if there's things you could do to reverse any structural issues there?

第一個問題是關於 ASUX 的。我們昨晚從一位 D3 人士那裡聽說，他們正處於一個關鍵時刻，需要決定如何處理高階自主權，是內部工作還是與其他公司建立更多合作關係。我們在 CES 上體驗了你們的 Level 2+ 演示，令人印象深刻，而且成本不太高。只是好奇，最近幾個月，你會發現人們對高階自主性的興趣增加，而另一方面，從使用者體驗來看，這似乎是一種結構性的障礙。我只是好奇，如果您能採取一些措施來扭轉那裡的任何結構性問題，您如何看待這項業務的發展？

Tom, good questions on both. So I would -- we would say that we're in more discussions with more OEMs as it relates to advanced ADAS. They like our cost-effective solution. I think several of them are dealing with kind of vehicle architecture decisions, platform mix decisions which is making that decision in that process play out over a longer period of time. There's a lot of interest, lots of interest in our solution given its cost.

湯姆，這兩個問題都問得很好。所以我想說，我們正在與更多 OEM 就高級 ADAS 進行更多討論。他們喜歡我們經濟高效的解決方案。我認為他們中有幾個正在處理車輛架構決策、平台組合決策，這些決策將在更長的時間內發揮作用。考慮到其成本，很多人對我們的解決方案感興趣。

I think fewer of the OEMs are now of the view that there are certain aspects of this that are religion and they need to own that there's a more cost-effective approach from a supplier standpoint, especially in our case where we've developed solutions that are open architected that gives them flexibility to contribute to the platform to do more, to do less and even supplier alternatives, whether it be on the SoC or be on the perception system.

我認為，現在很少有 OEM 廠商認為這其中的某些方面是宗教信仰，他們需要承認，從供應商的角度來看，存在一種更具成本效益的方法，特別是在我們的情況下，我們開發了開放式架構的解決方案，使他們能夠靈活地為平台做出貢獻，做更多的事情，做更少的事情，甚至可以選擇供應商替代方案，無論是在 SoC 上或感知系統上。

So we're trying to present them with that flexibility. So we're in the midst of negotiations/discussions with multiple OEMs across the globe now feel like that will translate into significant bookings during 2025. I'd say a few of the decisions dragged out of 2024 into 2025 but we keep working at it. As it relates to UX, we have some programs that we're working on now that we expect will translate into awards.

因此我們嘗試向他們提供這種靈活性。因此，我們正在與全球多家 OEM 進行談判/討論，現在感覺這將轉化為 2025 年的大量訂單。就使用者體驗 (UX) 而言，我們正在進行一些項目，希望這些項目能夠轉化為獎項。

You're right, the traditional infotainment model that operated within automotive five years ago, it's very different today. Our real focus is in and around the software or the cockpit controller with end-user experience, especially given the trend to see the up integration of the user experience to domain controller into the ADAS controller.

您說得對，五年前汽車領域運行的傳統資訊娛樂模式，今天已經有很大不同。我們真正的重點是具有最終用戶體驗的軟體或駕駛艙控制器，特別是考慮到將使用者體驗從網域控制器整合到 ADAS 控制器的趨勢。

So that's a place that we continue to play. There's a couple of large pursuits that we're in the midst of at this point in time, awards that will position that business for stronger growth and listen, we continue to evaluate our entire product portfolio in terms of where it sits, what it's enabling for our customers, what the return is and how do we maximize value for shareholders.

所以這是我們會繼續比賽的地方。目前，我們正在進行幾項大型的追求，這些獎項將使公司獲得更強勁的成長，我們會繼續評估我們整個產品組合，看看它目前所處的位置、它能為我們的客戶帶來什麼、它能帶來什麼回報，以及我們如何為股東實現價值最大化。

So that's one of the areas that we consistently -- just given some of the changes we're consistently evaluating.

所以這是我們始終關注的領域之一——只是考慮到我們一直在評估的一些變化。

Okay. And a quick follow-up on that semis topic, just the shortfall you see. Is that -- is this company specific? Or is it like an industry-wide dynamic or something you're always expecting?

好的。對半決賽主題進行快速跟進，您看到的只是不足之處。這是──這家公司具體嗎？或者它是整個行業的動態或您一直期待的事情？

Yeah. Our concern is it's an industry-wide dynamic, with the advancements in AI and the need for more compute that you're going to see more pull into computers and the laptops into other areas.

是的。我們擔心的是，這是一個整個行業的動態，隨著人工智慧的進步和對更多計算的需求，你會看到更多的電腦和筆記型電腦進入其他領域。

So a possibility that you see a shortage of semiconductors in areas that were similar to what we saw back a few years ago. So we're going to monitor the situation very closely. Varun, is all over this. And to the extent we start seeing extended kind of periods in terms of order and delivery of product, we'll start ramping up investment in inventory. If we don't see it, we won't make the investment, but we thought it prudent to include in our outlook for free cash flow.

因此，您可能會發現某些地區出現的半導體短缺情況與幾年前的情況類似。因此我們將密切監視局勢。 Varun，對這一切都了解。當我們開始看到產品訂單和交付週期延長時，我們將開始增加對庫存的投資。如果我們沒有看到這一點，我們就不會進行投資，但我們認為將其納入我們的自由現金流展望中是明智之舉。

And that will wrap up the Q&A portion of today's call. I will now turn the conference back to Mr. Kevin Clark for any additional or closing response.

今天電話會議的問答部分就到此結束。現在我將會議交還給凱文克拉克先生，請他補充或作最後回應。

Thank you, everyone, for participating in our call. We appreciate you joining us and look forward to seeing all of you in the upcoming NDRs and other conferences that we'll be attending. So thank you very much, and have a great day.

感謝大家參加我們的電話會議。感謝您的加入，我們期待在即將舉行的 NDR 和我們將參加的其他會議中見到大家。非常感謝您，祝您有愉快的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time, and have a great day.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開連接，並享受美好的一天。