Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Abercrombie & Fitch Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would now like to turn the call over to Mo Gupta. Please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 Abercrombie & Fitch 2023 財年第三季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。 （接線生指示）此時，我想將電話轉給 Mo Gupta。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2023 earnings call. Joining me today on the call are Fran Horowitz, Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Lipesky, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer. Earlier this morning, we issued our third quarter earnings release, which is available on our website at corporate.abercrombie.com under the Investors section.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是執行長 Fran Horowitz；財務長兼營運長史考特‧利佩斯基(Scott Lipesky)。今天早些時候，我們發布了第三季收益報告，該報告可在我們網站 Corporate.abercrombie.com 的「投資者」部分查看。

Also available on our website is an investor presentation. Please keep in mind that we will make certain forward-looking statements on the call. These statements are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations and assumptions we mentioned today. These factors and uncertainties are discussed in our reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

我們的網站上也提供投資者介紹。請記住，我們將在電話會議中做出某些前瞻性聲明。這些陳述受到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款的約束，並受到可能導致實際結果與我們今天提到的預期和假設存在重大差異的風險和不確定性的影響。這些因素和不確定性在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告和文件中進行了討論。

In addition, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures today during the call. Additional details and reconciliations of GAAP to adjusted non-GAAP financial measures are included in the release and investor presentation issued earlier this morning. Finally, references to Abercrombie brands includes Abercrombie & Fitch and Abercrombie Kids and references to Hollister brands include Hollister, Gilly Hicks and Social Tourist. With that, I will turn the call over to Fran.

此外，我們今天將在電話會議中提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標。今天早上早些時候發布的新聞稿和投資者介紹中包含了 GAAP 與調整後的非 GAAP 財務指標的更多細節和調整。最後，Abercrombie 品牌包括 Abercrombie & Fitch 和 Abercrombie Kids，Hollister 品牌包括 Hollister、Gilly Hicks 和 Social Tourism。這樣，我就把電話轉給弗蘭。

Thanks, Mo. Good morning and thank you all for joining us. We are excited to report outstanding third quarter results, which is a testament to our global team delivering on our goal of aligning product, voice and experience to our customers' needs at each brand. We continue to build on the momentum from Q2, with sequential acceleration in both sales growth and profitability. On the top line, growth trends were strong throughout the third quarter, driving sales results above our expectations.

謝謝，莫。早安，謝謝大家加入我們。我們很高興報告出色的第三季業績，這證明了我們的全球團隊實現了我們的目標，即根據每個品牌的客戶需求調整產品、語音和體驗。我們繼續延續第二季的勢頭，銷售成長和獲利能力連續加速。在營收方面，整個第三季的成長趨勢強勁，推動銷售業績超越我們的預期。

For the quarter, net sales increased 20% with growth across all regions, brands and direct selling channels, including both stores and digital. We also exceeded expectations on the bottom line with a 13.1% operating margin, driven by 570 basis points of gross profit rate expansion and operating expense leverage on higher sales.

本季淨銷售額成長 20%，所有地區、品牌和直銷通路（包括商店和數位通路）均成長。受毛利率擴張 570 個基點以及銷售增加帶來的營業費用槓桿的推動，我們的營業利潤率也超出了預期，達到 13.1%。

The 13.1% operating margin was an expansion of over 1,100 basis points compared to third quarter 2022. For the year-to-date period, net sales were up 13% to last year with an operating margin of 9.3% over 900 basis points better than 2022 through the third quarter. These results show the powerful response from our customers as we continue to execute on our playbook.

營業利益率為 13.1%，比 2022 年第三季成長了 1,100 個基點。今年迄今，淨銷售額比去年增長了 13%，營業利潤率為 9.3%，比去年同期高出 900 個基點2022 年至第三季。這些結果表明，隨著我們繼續執行我們的行動手冊，我們的客戶做出了強烈的反應。

I am so impressed with what our team has delivered, pushing boundaries and challenging ourselves to grow, while staying close to our customers and remaining agile. As we enter the fourth quarter, we are poised to continue this momentum with our brands and regions strategically positioned to win. As such, we are raising our sales and operating margin expectations for 2023, capping off a significant year of improved growth and profitability for the company.

我們的團隊所交付的成果給我留下了深刻的印象，他們突破界限並挑戰自我成長，同時與客戶保持密切聯繫並保持敏捷。隨著我們進入第四季度，我們準備繼續這一勢頭，我們的品牌和地區策略定位為獲勝。因此，我們上調了 2023 年的銷售額和營業利潤率預期，為公司成長和獲利能力改善的重要一年畫上句號。

I'm proud to share it was a strong quarter across our brand portfolio and the time we've spent reinvigorating Hollister brands is resonating with our customer. With a refreshed brand aesthetic and evolved assortment, Hollister brands achieved 11% growth for the third quarter, showing nice progress as we comp a disappointing 2022 back-to-school season and what remains a dynamic teen apparel environment.

我很自豪地與大家分享，這是我們品牌組合的一個強勁季度，我們花在重振 Hollister 品牌上的時間與我們的客戶產生了共鳴。憑藉煥然一新的品牌美學和不斷發展的品種，Hollister 品牌在第三季度實現了11% 的增長，在我們對比令人失望的2022 年返校季節和仍然充滿活力的青少年服裝環境時，顯示出良好的進步。

Hollister delivered growth in all regions showing balance as we further localize our assortment and experience. We continue to prioritize driving a healthier business in Q3 improving the gross profit and lower rate -- on a lower freight costs and higher AUR from lower promotions, consistent with the first half of the year. As we enter the peak holiday season, our inventory is in a significantly better place compared to last year, giving us the opportunity to be strategic with promotions.

隨著我們進一步在地化我們的品種和經驗，霍利斯特在所有地區都實現了平衡的成長。我們繼續優先考慮在第三季推動更健康的業務，提高毛利和降低費率——貨運成本降低，促銷活動減少，AUR 提高，與上半年一致。隨著我們進入假期旺季，我們的庫存狀況比去年明顯好轉，這使我們有機會進行策略性促銷。

Turning to product wins. The Hollister women's business continue to lead the way for the brand growing nicely and showing balance as tops, bottoms and dresses all helped drive sales improvement to last year. As we discussed last quarter, we entered back-to-school with purposeful distortions to dresses, non-denim bottoms and select top categories all of which did well for the balance of the quarter.

轉向產品獲勝。霍利斯特 (Hollister) 女裝業務繼續引領品牌發展，上衣、下裝和連身裙均表現出平衡，推動了去年的銷售成長。正如我們上季度討論的那樣，我們在重返校園時故意扭曲了連身裙、非牛仔褲和精選的頂級品類，所有這些都在本季度的剩餘時間裡表現良好。

Importantly, we have used these learnings to chase into winners for the holiday season. The overall men's trend was similar to the second quarter with solid performance in non-denim bottoms, fleece and sweaters all of which were areas of focus for newness as we rebuilt the assortment.

重要的是，我們利用這些經驗來追逐假期的贏家。男裝整體趨勢與第二季相似，非牛仔下裝、羊毛衫和毛衣表現強勁，所有這些都是我們重建產品類別時關注的新領域。

This holiday season, as teen customers head to the mall, we'll be ready to meet them with an evolved assortment. We expect to complement the in-store business with increased digital marketing, particularly on social channels, where our teens are spending the abundance of their time. Although it's early, we're pleased with Hollister's brands throughout to the fourth quarter. And we remain on the path to deliver growth for 2023, a key point of progress for the brand. Moving to Abercrombie brands. Wow, the team delivered their 11th consecutive quarter of sales growth with an impressive 30% sales increase year-over-year. We continue to find new ways to win with our target audience, resulting in great balance and consistency in addition to growth acceleration.

今年假期，當青少年顧客湧向購物中心時，我們將準備好以更豐富的產品種類來迎接他們。我們希望透過增加數位行銷來補充店內業務，特別是在我們的青少年花費大量時間的社交管道上。雖然現在還為時過早，但我們對整個第四季的霍利斯特品牌感到滿意。我們仍然致力於實現 2023 年的成長，這是該品牌進步的關鍵點。轉向 Abercrombie 品牌。哇，該團隊實現了連續 11 個季度的銷售成長，銷售額年增了 30%，令人印象深刻。我們不斷尋找贏得目標受眾的新方法，除了加速成長之外，還實現了良好的平衡和一致性。

Similar to Q2, we saw growth in units, AUR, genders, regions in both stores and digital direct channels. On the assortment, both men's and women's posted double-digit sales growth in the quarter. Looking at women's Q3 marks the 13th consecutive quarter of double-digit sales growth. I've been impressed with how our teams have continued to build on strong franchises across tops, bottoms and dresses.

與第二季類似，我們看到商店和數位直接管道的單位、AUR、性別、地區都有成長。就產品類別而言，本季男裝和女裝的銷售額均達到兩位數成長。第三季女裝銷售額連續第 13 季實現兩位數成長。我們的團隊如何繼續在上衣、下裝和連身裙方面建立強大的特許經營權，這給我留下了深刻的印象。

For men's, Q3 marked our fifth consecutive quarter of growth, an important milestones we strongly comped the beginning of our growth path in Q3 2022. Following our successful playbook for women's, we are building into franchises in the Essential Fleece and knits while driving newness across jeans and pants. I'm excited about our cold weather assortments in both genders across sweaters, fleece and outerwear as we approach holiday.

對於男裝而言，第三季標誌著我們連續第五個季度實現成長，這是我們在2022 年第三季強勁成長道路的開端的一個重要里程碑。繼我們在女裝方面的成功策略之後，我們正在建立Essential Fleece 和針織品的特許經營權，同時在各個領域推動創新牛仔褲和褲子。在假期臨近之際，我對我們的男女毛衣、羊毛衫和外套等寒冷天氣系列感到興奮不已。

Abercrombie continues to find compelling ways to connect with customers through unique collaborations and brand experiences. For example, our recent collections with Influencer Kathleen Post and Harlems Fashion Row Designer Nicole Benefield have driven engagement with new and current customers particularly on social media and our digital shopping platforms.

Abercrombie 不斷尋找令人信服的方式透過獨特的合作和品牌體驗與客戶建立聯繫。例如，我們最近與影響者 Kathleen Post 和 Harlems Fashion Row 設計師 Nicole Benefield 合作推出的系列推動了新舊客戶的互動，特別是在社交媒體和我們的數位購物平台上。

On the in-person experience, we continue to see traction in our neighborhood stores, and we were thrilled to open 4 additional locations in the quarter, including SoHo in New York, Brickell Street in Miami, King Street in Charleston and Harbor East in Baltimore. We have and will continue to use our digital in-store experiences in concert to drive a seamless customer experience.

在親身體驗方面，我們繼續看到鄰裡商店的吸引力，我們很高興在本季度另外開設 4 家門市，包括紐約的 SoHo、邁阿密的布里克爾街、查爾斯頓的國王街和巴爾的摩的 Harbour East 。我們已經並將繼續使用我們的數位店內體驗來推動無縫的客戶體驗。

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, Abercrombie brands has had a great start to November, continuing at historic 2023, and we're confident our customers will love what we have for them this holiday season. Moving to regional performance. As we discussed last quarter, we are seeing positive results from our evolved regional operating model, which provides better support for our local teams and a greatly improved customer experience.

展望第四季度，Abercrombie 品牌在 11 月取得了良好的開局，並將在歷史性的 2023 年繼續下去，我們相信我們的客戶會喜歡我們在這個假期為他們提供的產品。轉向區域績效。正如我們上季度所討論的那樣，我們看到了不斷發展的區域營運模式的積極成果，該模式為我們的本地團隊提供了更好的支持，並大大改善了客戶體驗。

Each region delivered growth in the quarter also building on second quarter sales increases. On a comparable sales basis, the Americas grew 16% in Q3. EMEA grew 15% and APAC grew 32%. On the localization efforts our EMEA and APAC teams have made key updates to our assortments, pricing and forced cadence as we have moved through 2023, contributing to our sales performance in those regions.

每個地區在本季度都實現了成長，也是建立在第二季銷售成長的基礎上的。以可比銷售額計算，美洲第三季成長了 16%。歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長 15%，亞太地區成長 32%。在在地化工作方面，隨著2023 年的到來，我們的歐洲、中東和非洲(EMEA) 和亞太地區團隊對我們的品種、定價和強制節奏進行了重大更新，為我們在這些地區的銷售業績做出了貢獻。

In EMEA, our teams also localized marketing content and prioritized spend in our 2 largest markets, the U.K. and Germany, where we are seeing outsized positive results compared to the rest of Europe. We've seen similar progress from our APAC team as well. As you know, Singles Day is an important retail holiday for us in the region, and the team tailored promotions and product positioning, leading to a nice increase in sales this year.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們的團隊也在地化了行銷內容，並優先在英國和德國這兩個最大市場進行支出，與歐洲其他地區相比，我們在這兩個市場看到了巨大的積極成果。我們的亞太團隊也取得了類似的進展。如您所知，雙十一是我們在該地區重要的零售節日，團隊量身定制了促銷活動和產品定位，導致今年的銷售額取得了不錯的增長。

There is more work ahead, but our improved trends give me the confidence that we are focused on the right aspects of the customer experience and that we can continue to recoup lost volume over the past few years following the COVID pandemic. Before I turn it over to Scott, I want to share a few additional thoughts on the upcoming holiday period. Fourth quarter is off to an encouraging start, and we're ready and focus to compete with the large volume still ahead of us.

未來還有更多的工作要做，但我們改善的趨勢讓我相信，我們專注於客戶體驗的正確方面，並且我們可以繼續彌補過去幾年在新冠疫情大流行後損失的銷售。在我把它交給斯科特之前，我想分享一些關於即將到來的假期的額外想法。第四季是一個令人鼓舞的開端，我們已準備好並專注於與我們面前的大量產品進行競爭。

Our teams have worked hard to align our product and promotional messaging to set us up for a successful holiday across brands. With strong brand positioning and holiday product strategies in place for each brand, we are accelerating our marketing investment in the fourth quarter to capitalize on heavier traffic and drive customer acquisition and retention.

我們的團隊努力協調我們的產品和促銷訊息，為我們跨品牌度過一個成功的假期做好準備。憑藉強大的品牌定位和每個品牌的假日產品策略，我們正在第四季度加快行銷投資，以利用更大的流量並推動客戶獲取和保留。

While the macro environment remains challenging and uncertain, we have proven that we can deliver growth across brands and regions, if we stay focus on our customer and execute our playbook. I'm so proud of what our teams have achieved so far, and we expect to finish 2023 showing the strength of our customer relationships in addition to sales growth and profitability.

儘管宏觀環境仍然充滿挑戰和不確定性，但我們已經證明，如果我們繼續專注於客戶並執行我們的策略，我們可以實現跨品牌和跨地區的成長。我對我們團隊迄今為止所取得的成就感到非常自豪，我們預計到 2023 年，除了銷售成長和獲利能力之外，我們還將展示我們客戶關係的實力。

I'd like to thank all global associates for making this happen through their unrelenting customer focus and unwavering commitment to our always forward plan. We all look forward to continuing our momentum in the important holiday period and sharing our full year accomplishments with you soon. With that, I'll hand it over to Scott.

我要感謝所有全球員工透過堅持不懈的客戶關注和對我們始終向前的計劃的堅定承諾，使這一切得以實現。我們都期待在重要的假期期間繼續保持勢頭，並儘快與您分享我們全年的成就。這樣，我就把它交給史考特了。

Thanks, Fran. I'll start with adding my thanks and congrats to our global teams for delivering a strong third quarter. We drove net sales, gross profit rate and operating margin above our expectations, while continuing to manage inventory tightly. For the quarter, total net sales of $1.056 billion were up 20% to last year with growth across brands and regions. Comparable sales for the quarter were up 16% with both stores and digital contributing.

謝謝，弗蘭。首先，我要感謝並祝賀我們的全球團隊在第三季取得了強勁的業績。我們的淨銷售額、毛利率和營業利潤率超出了我們的預期，同時繼續嚴格管理庫存。本季總淨銷售額為 10.56 億美元，比去年同期成長 20%，各個品牌和地區均實現成長。在商店和數位通路的共同推動下，本季的可比銷售額成長了 16%。

The 400 basis point spread between comps and total sales was primarily driven by net new store activity. As a whole, our new stores have exceeded our expectations and are expected to deliver productivity per square foot at a rate more than double the stores we closed last year and will close this year. On a regional basis, our growth was more balanced in the quarter compared to recent past.

比較與總銷售額之間的 400 個基點差價主要是由淨新店活動推動的。總體而言，我們的新店超出了我們的預期，預計每平方英尺的生產力將是我們去年關閉的商店的兩倍以上，並將於今年關閉。從地區來看，與最近一段時間相比，我們本季的成長更加平衡。

Better balance was driven by an acceleration outside the Americas. By region, net sales grew 22% in the Americas, 14% in EMEA and 13% in APAC. On a comp basis, sales grew 16% in the Americas, 15% in EMEA and 32% in APAC. In our EMEA and APAC regions, we have seen a good response to localization efforts made this year, including product and inventory distortions, pricing adjustments and timing of product drops.

美洲以外地區的加速推動了更好的平衡。按地區劃分，美洲淨銷售額成長 22%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區淨銷售額成長 14%，亞太地區淨銷售額成長 13%。相較之下，美洲的銷售額成長了 16%，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售額成長了 15%，亞太地區的銷售額成長了 32%。在我們的歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區，我們看到今年在地化工作取得了良好的反響，包括產品和庫存扭曲、定價調整和產品下降時間。

On a brand basis, Abercrombie brands delivered another great quarter of growth at 30%, while Hollister brands grew 11%. On a comp basis, Abercrombie grew 26% and Hollister grew 7%. Similar to the second quarter, Abercrombie brand's growth was consistent across genders, while the women's business drove the growth in Hollister brands.

從品牌角度來看，Abercrombie 品牌又實現了 30% 的強勁季度成長，而 Hollister 品牌則成長了 11%。以比較計算，Abercrombie 成長了 26%，Hollister 成長了 7%。與第二季類似，Abercrombie 品牌的成長在性別上保持一致，而女裝業務則推動了 Hollister 品牌的成長。

Moving on to gross profit. The gross profit rate for the quarter was 64.9%, up nicely compared to 59.2% in 2022. The 570 basis point rate improvement was driven by a few key factors. We saw approximately 250 basis points contribution from AUR growth driven by higher mix of Abercrombie business to the total and lower promotional activity enabled by lower inventory levels compared to the last year.

轉向毛利。該季度的毛利率為 64.9%，較 2022 年的 59.2% 大幅增長。570 個基點的毛利率改善是由幾個關鍵因素推動的。我們發現，與去年相比，Abercrombie 業務組合的增加推動了 AUR 成長約 250 個基點，而庫存水準較低導致促銷活動減少。

Next, we saw a freight benefit of approximately 200 basis points. And we saw a benefit of approximately 200 basis points from the lower levels of inventory write-downs compared to last year. These benefits were offset by higher raw material costs of approximately 80 basis points. We expect slight raw material cost pressure in the fourth quarter of 2023, flipping to a benefit beginning in 2024.

接下來，我們看到運費上漲約 200 個基點。與去年相比，我們看到庫存減記水準降低了約 200 個基點。這些效益被原料成本上漲約 80 個基點所抵銷。我們預計 2023 年第四季原物料成本壓力較小，2024 年開始將轉為受益。

Touching on the supply chain, we continue to see freight costs shipping times and performance at good levels. Inventory was down 20% to last year at the end of the quarter, and we continue to chase across brands. As we look to year-end, we expect inventories to be down to last year. Our teams have done an amazing job building agility into our inventory decisions, and we are excited to see our customers respond to our holiday assortments.

在供應鏈方面，我們繼續看到貨運成本、運輸時間和績效處於良好水準。季度末庫存比去年下降了 20%，我們繼續跨品牌追逐。展望年底，我們預計庫存將降至去年水準。我們的團隊在庫存決策中建立敏捷性方面做得非常出色，我們很高興看到客戶對我們的假日產品系列做出反應。

Taking a look at expenses. Total operating expense, excluding other operating income, was $546 million compared to adjusted operating expense of $501 million last year. We had no exclusions this year and excluded $4 million of pretax asset impairment charges last year. Year-over-year increase was driven by inflation, investments in digital and technology, higher incentive-based compensation and marketing.

看看費用。不包括其他營業收入的總營業費用為 5.46 億美元，而去年調整後的營業費用為 5.01 億美元。今年我們沒有排除任何情況，去年排除了 400 萬美元的稅前資產減損費用。同比成長是由通貨膨脹、數位和技術投資、更高的激勵性薪酬和行銷推動的。

Marketing dollars were higher than last year, but were steady as a percent of sales. Strong sales growth, we expect -- we delivered nice expense leverage in the quarter with operating expenses representing 51.7% of sales this year compared to 57.3% last year. Operating income was $138 million or 13.1% of sales compared to adjusted operating income of $21 million last year.

行銷費用高於去年，但佔銷售額的百分比保持穩定。我們預計，銷售將強勁成長——本季我們實現了良好的費用槓桿，營運費用佔今年銷售額的 51.7%，而去年為 57.3%。營業收入為 1.38 億美元，佔銷售額的 13.1%，而去年調整後的營業收入為 2,100 萬美元。

Operating income exceeded our expectation, driven primarily by the strong flow-through of better-than-expected sales. Net income per diluted share was $1.83 compared to an adjusted net income per share of $0.01 last year. With strong earnings and inventory management in the quarter, we continue to strengthen the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with cash of $649 million and liquidity of approximately $1 billion.

營業收入超出了我們的預期，主要是由於好於預期的銷售的強勁流通所致。稀釋後每股淨利潤為 1.83 美元，而去年調整後每股淨利潤為 0.01 美元。憑藉本季強勁的獲利和庫存管理，我們持續強化資產負債表。本季末，我們擁有 6.49 億美元現金和約 10 億美元流動資金。

During the quarter, we drove $134 million of operating cash flow. We repurchased $50 million of senior secured notes at par value for a total of $51 million and ended the quarter with $250 million of senior secured notes outstanding. Consistent with the past few years, we will continue to focus on debt and share repurchases as our primary means to put excess cash to work pending business performance, share price and our ability to increase investments in the business.

本季度，我們實現了 1.34 億美元的營運現金流。我們以面額回購了 5,000 萬美元的優先擔保票據，總額為 5,100 萬美元，本季末，未償還的優先擔保票據為 2.5 億美元。與過去幾年一樣，我們將繼續專注於債務和股票回購，作為我們將多餘現金用於待業務表現、股價和增加業務投資能力的主要手段。

For the first 9 months of 2023, we had operating cash flow of approximately $350 million and capital expenditures of approximately $129 million. We ended the third quarter with 765 stores.

2023 年前 9 個月，我們的營運現金流約為 3.5 億美元，資本支出約 1.29 億美元。截至第三季末，我們擁有 765 家商店。

Shifting to our thoughts for the rest of 2023. As mentioned, we have had an encouraging start to the quarter, and we are excited about the opportunity ahead and as the majority of the volume is yet to come. For the fourth quarter of 2023, we expect net sales to be up in low double digits compared to fiscal fourth quarter 2022 level of $1.2 billion.

轉向我們對 2023 年剩餘時間的想法。如上所述，我們在本季度取得了令人鼓舞的開局，我們對未來的機會感到興奮，因為大部分銷量尚未到來。與 2022 財年第四季 12 億美元的水平相比，我們預計 2023 年第四季的淨銷售額將以較低的兩位數成長。

As a reminder, we have the 53rd reporting week this year, which we expect will add $45 million or 375 basis points of contribution to sales growth this quarter. We are assuming growth across regions and brands. And we expect a minimal impact from foreign currency. For operating margin, we expect to be in the range of 12% to 14% compared to an adjusted operating margin of 7.7% last year, with the increase driven primarily by a higher gross profit rate on lower freight costs and higher AURs.

提醒一下，今年是第 53 個報告週，我們預計這將為本季的銷售成長貢獻 4,500 萬美元或 375 個基點。我們假設跨地區和品牌的成長。我們預計外幣的影響很小。對於營業利潤率，我們預計營業利潤率將在 12% 至 14% 之間，而去年調整後的營業利潤率為 7.7%，這一增長主要是由於貨運成本降低和 AUR 上升導致毛利率上升。

For operating expense, we expect to see similar themes as we saw in Q3 with higher technology and incentive compensation expense as well as increased marketing. For tax, we expect an effective rate of around 30%. Embedding the fourth quarter outlook in the full year, our updated full year outlook is for net sales growth of 12% to 14% from the '22 level of approximately $3.7 billion.

對於營運費用，我們預計會看到與第三季類似的主題，包括更高的技術和激勵薪酬費用以及增加的行銷。對於稅收，我們預計有效稅率約為 30%。將第四季展望納入全年，我們更新後的全年展望是淨銷售額較 22 年約 37 億美元的水準成長 12% 至 14%。

This is up to our previous outlook of growth of around 10% due to outperformance in the third quarter and our expectations for the fourth quarter. For stores, we now expect approximately 35 new stores, 20 combined remodels and right sizes and 35 closures. For operating margin, we expect to be around 10% for the year, up from our previous outlook in the range of 8% to 9%.

由於第三季的表現優於我們對第四季的預期，這符合我們先前預期的 10% 左右的成長預期。對於商店，我們現在預計大約有 35 家新店、20 家經過改造並調整尺寸的商店以及 35 家關閉。對於營業利潤率，我們預計今年將達到 10% 左右，高於先前 8% 至 9% 的預期。

We continue to expect a net benefit from freight and raw materials of approximately 250 basis points for the full year. We expect an effective tax rate in the low-30s compared to our previous expectation of low- to mid-30s due to higher expected profitability levels and we continue to expect CapEx of approximately $160 million.

我們仍預計全年貨運和原料的淨收益約為 250 個基點。由於預期獲利水準較高，我們預計有效稅率將在 30 多歲以下，而我們先前的預期為 30 多歲左右，我們繼續預期資本支出約為 1.6 億美元。

To finish up, we are pleased with the continued progress across regions and brands, giving us confidence that our playbook is working. While we are laser-focused on delivering a great holiday, we are confident in our path forward and are making progress on long-term strategic investments that will better enable speed, agility and a seamless omnichannel customer experience as part of our always forward plan. With that, operator, we are ready for questions.

最後，我們對跨地區和品牌的持續進展感到高興，這讓我們相信我們的策略正在發揮作用。雖然我們專注於提供一個美好的假期，但我們對前進的道路充滿信心，並在長期戰略投資方面取得進展，這些投資將更好地實現速度、敏捷性和無縫的全渠道客戶體驗，作為我們始終前進計劃的一部分。接線員，我們已經準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question coming from the line of Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Telsey Advisory Group 的 Dana Telsey。

Congratulations on the very nice results. Nice to see the improvement in Hollister. And when you unpack the comps, men's, women's, what did you see in terms of performing any categories to note. How is the difference between online and physical stores and how you're thinking about promotions? How were they in the third quarter and plans for the fourth?

祝賀取得了非常好的結果。很高興看到霍利斯特的進步。當你打開男裝、女裝比賽時，你會發現哪些類別需要注意。網上商店和實體店有什麼區別？您如何考慮促銷活動？他們第三季的表現如何，第四季的計畫如何？

Thanks, Dana. Good morning. So specifically to Hollister. I mean it was really exciting to see our second quarter of consecutive growth, up [11] led by women's again. So just like our -- we saw it happen in Abercrombie, Women's led the way there, too, and girls is leading the way for Hollister. What specifically worked for us, non-denim bottoms that we've had an expansion in our bottoms category.

謝謝，達納。早安.特別是霍利斯特。我的意思是，看到我們第二季連續成長，上升 [11] 再次由女性主導，真是令人興奮。因此，就像我們在 Abercrombie 看到的那樣，女裝也在這方面處於領先地位，而女孩在 Hollister 中也處於領先地位。特別適合我們的是非牛仔布下裝，我們已經擴展了我們的下裝類別。

They still love denim, but a lot of opportunities to a lot of other non-denim bottoms, which are happening actually in both the guys and the girls business. Categories to note, lots of exciting things, a very balanced assortment. Our inventories are very clean. I'm excited that we can enter the fourth quarter with really fresh inventories and promotions.

他們仍然喜歡牛仔布，但也有很多其他非牛仔布下裝的機會，這實際上發生在男孩和女孩的行業中。需要注意的類別，很多令人興奮的東西，非常平衡的分類。我們的庫存非常乾淨。我很高興我們能夠以真正新鮮的庫存和促銷進入第四季度。

As you know, the fourth quarter is certainly always the most promotional quarter of the year. We're prepared to compete, but it is based on our own internal selling. What's working, what's not working. We work with the teams very closely during the fourth quarter to make sure that we're agile and focusing those promotions specifically.

如您所知，第四季無疑始終是一年中促銷力度最大的季度。我們準備好競爭，但這是基於我們自己的內部銷售。什麼有效，什麼無效。我們在第四季度與團隊密切合作，以確保我們敏捷並專門關注這些促銷活動。

Yes. Picking up the online versus stores, good balance across the total company for the quarter. We think about Hollister, a little tilted towards the store business in the quarter, which is great to see. We've opened some new stores throughout the year have done some remodels and right sizes, and good to see that store traffic coming back. And that's really on a global scale, which is very, very exciting.

是的。線上與實體店相比，本季整個公司保持良好平衡。我們想到 Hollister，本季有點向商店業務傾斜，這是很高興看到的。我們全年開設了一些新店，並進行了一些改造和調整尺寸，很高興看到商店客流量回升。這確實是在全球範圍內，這非常非常令人興奮。

Just one last item. Given that you're hitting a 10% operating margin this year, is the 13% to 15% in the purview in the future? Or how do you think of the framework?

只有最後一項。鑑於今年您的營業利潤率達到 10%，未來 13% 到 15% 是否在您的範圍之內？或者說你覺得這個框架怎麼樣？

Thanks, Dana. Yes. Very, very exciting to put a 10% outlook out there for the year. We started the year at 4% to 5%, and as the business has improved throughout the year, we're looking out there at 10% now. We're not going to talk about 2024 today. We are very focused on delivering an amazing holiday, but super exciting to be putting a number out there at 10% that we talked about last year in 2022, that 8% to 10% longer term. Excited to get here quickly.

謝謝，達納。是的。非常非常令人興奮地給出今年 10% 的展望。我們年初的成長率為 4% 到 5%，隨著全年業務的改善，我們現在的成長率為 10%。我們今天不討論 2024 年。我們非常專注於提供一個令人驚嘆的假期，但非常令人興奮的是，我們去年談到的 2022 年增長率為 10%，長期來看是 8% 到 10%。很高興能盡快到達這裡。

And our next question coming from the line of Corey Tarlowe with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自科里·塔洛和傑弗里斯的對話。

Great. So Fran, as it relates to the really impressive growth that you've seen at Abercrombie in the quarter. What are some things that surprised you as you think about the upside that was driven versus your original plan? And what were some items that really resonated with customers this quarter across products and geographies that really worked for you and that you see working into the fourth quarter and the upcoming holiday season?

偉大的。 Fran，這與您在本季看到的 Abercrombie 令人印象深刻的成長有關。當您考慮與最初計劃相比所帶來的好處時，有哪些事情讓您感到驚訝？本季哪些產品和地區真正引起了客戶的共鳴，對您真正有效，並且您認為這些產品將在第四季度和即將到來的假期季節發揮作用？

So, hi, Corey. So what's super exciting to have just finished our 11th consecutive quarter of growth for Abercrombie brands is just such a big win for the company. Super excited and proud of the team of what they've been able to accomplish. What's really terrific about that is it's balanced growth. We saw balance across actually brand, the brand, the genders, the regions, the channels, I could keep going. So to have accomplished that was really, really terrific.

所以，嗨，科里。因此，令人超級興奮的是，Abercrombie 品牌剛剛完成了連續 11 個季度的成長，這對公司來說是一個巨大的勝利。對團隊所取得的成就感到非常興奮和自豪。真正了不起的是它的平衡成長。我們看到了實際上品牌、品牌、性別、地區、管道之間的平衡，我可以繼續下去。所以能夠實現這一點真的非常非常了不起。

We have a playbook that we are focused on delivering that product, voice and experience. It's aligning really well for our consumer. And most excitingly, we built this business to run with speed and agility, and that's what the team is doing this year, and they've really been able to test and react and learn about our assortment. I'm excited for the fourth quarter. We've got a lot of known product in there that the consumer is already loving.

我們有一個劇本，專注於提供產品、聲音和體驗。它非常適合我們的消費者。最令人興奮的是，我們建立了這項業務，以快速、敏捷地運行，這就是團隊今年所做的事情，他們確實能夠測試、反應並了解我們的產品組合。我對第四季感到興奮。我們有許多消費者已經喜歡的知名產品。

And lastly, as you know, we've really expanded the addressable market for Abercrombie. And so we're seeing the opportunity to have that customer from 20 to 40 shop with us as well as these expanded categories. So lots of exciting things happening.

最後，如您所知，我們確實擴大了 Abercrombie 的潛在市場。因此，我們看到了讓 20 到 40 名客戶在我們這裡購物的機會以及這些擴展的類別。很多令人興奮的事情發生了。

Great. And then, Scott, on the gross margin that you saw in the quarter, close to 65%. That's the highest we've seen in quite a while. So quite impressive as well. As you think about the drivers of that and as we look ahead, just qualitatively, is there any way to think about within that construct, what is perhaps sustainable going forward and what may come out just to get a sense for the puts and takes of the gross margin as we look ahead?

偉大的。然後，斯科特，您在本季看到的毛利率接近 65%。這是我們相當長一段時間以來看到的最高水準。所以也相當令人印象深刻。當你思考這個趨勢的驅動因素時，當我們展望未來時，從定性的角度來看，是否有任何方法可以在這個結構中思考，什麼是可持續發展的，以及可能會出現什麼，以便了解未來的投入與收穫我們展望未來的毛利率是多少？

Yes, great question. And this is something we've talked about a lot over the last couple of years really is the sustainability of the AUR. And what we always say is if we have great products and lean inventory, you have a great chance of delivering strong AURs. And that's really what we've done.

是的，很好的問題。這是我們在過去幾年中經常討論的問題，實際上是 AUR 的可持續性。我們總是說，如果我們擁有優質的產品和精簡的庫存，那麼您就有很大的機會實現強勁的 AUR。這確實是我們所做的。

Last year, we had a little step back with the Hollister inventory as that business fell off pretty abruptly in Q2. But we've gotten through that, and each of the brands is in Chase. So what you're seeing this year is now that freight is coming back in and normalizing, cotton getting kind of getting to the end of the headwind and really strong AURs and a really great Abercrombie business that Fran just explained. So we want this margin to be sustainable. We're working hard at that. And the pieces that we can control will be the inventory levels and great product, and we feel confident in that.

去年，我們在霍利斯特庫存方面略有退步，因為該業務在第二季度突然下滑。但我們已經度過了難關，每個品牌都在大通銀行旗下。因此，今年你會看到貨運量正在恢復並正常化，棉花的逆風即將結束，AUR 非常強勁，Abercrombie 業務也非常出色，正如 Fran 剛剛解釋的那樣。所以我們希望這個利潤率是可持續的。我們正在為此努力。我們可以控制的部分將是庫存水準和優質產品，我們對此充滿信心。

And our next question coming from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

And congrats on another nice quarter. So Fran, at the Abercrombie brand, if we take a step back, could you speak to product versus pricing? Meaning, how have you repositioned the assortment and maintain competitive pricing? And then what elements of this turnaround are you applying to the Hollister brand today? And then, Scott, with inventories down 20% exiting the quarter, could you just speak to the ability to chase into continued demand momentum in holiday?

恭喜又一個美好的季度。那麼，Fran，在 Abercrombie 品牌，如果我們退後一步，您能談談產品與定價嗎？意思是，您如何重新定位產品類別並保持有競爭力的價格？那麼，您今天將這一轉變的哪些要素應用到霍利斯特品牌呢？然後，斯科特，本季度庫存下降了 20%，您能否談談在假期期間追逐持續需求勢頭的能力？

So ANF, it's really exciting. So as you watch the evolution with us of the brand, we've gone really from it, a jeans and t-shirt brand to a lifestyle brand. And that has afforded us the opportunity to expand both our age demographic as well as the categories that we are offering. The journey reaching our 11th consecutive quarter of growth is probably less based on reduced promotions for A&F because we've made a lot of progress over the years, and there's a lot of mix happening. And the consumer is responding to categories like outerwear and dresses. And we're seeing her respond based on obviously value and the fashion that we put out there for the price point. So as I'd like to say, products plus voice plus experience actually equals AUR and what the consumer is willing to play and pay for their goods.

所以 ANF 真的很令人興奮。因此，當您與我們一起見證品牌的演變時，您會發現我們已經從牛仔褲和 T 卹品牌轉變為生活方式品牌。這為我們提供了擴大年齡人口以及我們提供的類別的機會。我們實現連續 11 個季度成長的歷程可能不太依賴 A&F 促銷活動的減少，因為多年來我們取得了很大進步，而且發生了很多混合情況。消費者正在對外套和連身裙等類別做出反應。我們看到她的反應是基於明顯的價值和我們在價格點上推出的時尚。所以正如我想說的，產品加語音加體驗實際上等於 AUR 以及消費者願意為他們的商品玩遊戲和支付的費用。

How do we apply that to Hollister? We work on playbooks here. So we had a playbook for A&F. We started with women's. We then went to men's, same thing in Hollister. We're seeing nice progress in girls. Now we're working on the guy's business. And we'll continue to roll that playbook out now geographically, right? We're rolling into international and seeing success across all of our regions as well.

我們如何將其應用到霍利斯特？我們在這裡制定劇本。所以我們有一個 A&F 的劇本。我們從女裝開始。然後我們去了男裝，在霍利斯特也是同樣的事情。我們看到女孩取得了很大的進步。現在我們正在處理那傢伙的事。我們現在將繼續在地理上推出該劇本，對嗎？我們正在進軍國際市場，並在所有地區都取得了成功。

On the inventory side, our ability to chase, we've been doing it all year. We started the year with a sales outlook kind of low single digits, 1% to 3%, and now we're talking about 12% to 14% for the year, and we've been able to chase into that inventory as we've come throughout the year. Huge thanks to our teams, planning merchandising sourcing.

庫存方面，我們的追趕能力，我們一整年都在做。今年伊始，我們的銷售前景為低個位數，即 1% 至 3%，現在我們談論的是今年的 12% 至 14%，並且我們已經能夠追趕該庫存，因為我們'我們全年都來。非常感謝我們的團隊規劃商品採購。

It's hard to run the business this way and we put up a lot of process, and it takes a lot of hard work. But the teams have just chased into millions and millions of units this year. And so, if there's upside to be had here in Q4, we'll go get it. We'll turn our inventory faster. We'll bring in the next and so I'm confident in that ability.

以這種方式經營業務很困難，我們制定了很多流程，需要付出很多努力。但今年各團隊剛剛追逐了數百萬台。因此，如果第四季度有好處，我們就會去抓住它。我們會更快地週轉庫存。我們將帶來下一個，所以我對這種能力充滿信心。

Our next question coming from the line of Marni Shapiro with The Retail Tracker.

我們的下一個問題來自 Marni Shapiro 的《零售追蹤》。

And if I forget, best of luck this holiday weekend. Can you talk a little bit just about 2 quick things. How are you thinking about store growth for next year with the success of these smaller neighborhood stores for Abercrombie? And then could you also just talk a little bit about dipping back into Hollister, really great improvement in the assortment there. I guess, what are the thoughts on the guys side? Has it not been as strong? Or is it just a harder customer to sell to because they're so picky and difficult and so trying to figure out what they want?

如果我忘記了，祝這個假日週末好運。能簡單談談兩件事嗎？隨著這些較小的 Abercrombie 鄰裡商店的成功，您如何看待明年的商店成長？然後你能不能談談重新回到霍利斯特，那裡的產品種類確實有了很大的改進。我想，男生那邊的想法是什麼？是不是沒那麼強了？或者只是一個更難銷售的客戶，因為他們非常挑剔和難以相處，並且試圖弄清楚他們想要什麼？

Let's start with the first question on store growth. So we, as you know, have been on a journey with our stores for many years now and it's exciting that we've actually been able to open up these neighborhood stores. That is probably not something we could have done years ago, but where the plan is today. We're seeing nice growth in them, I was just actually in New York last week, walking our SoHo and our Flatiron store, and it's so exciting to see this local customer coming in. We're selling -- are coming in. They're continuing to come in. We have an opportunity, as I mentioned going on several of these throughout the U.S. and possibly internationally as time goes on.

我們先來說第一個問題，關於店鋪成長。如您所知，我們的商店已經走過很多年了，令人興奮的是我們實際上能夠開設這些社區商店。這可能不是我們幾年前就能做到的事情，但今天的計畫就是這樣。我們看到它們的良好增長，我上週實際上在紐約，在我們的 SoHo 和 Flatiron 商店散步，看到這位本地客戶進來真是令人興奮。我們正在銷售 - 正在進來。他們我們有機會，正如我提到的，隨著時間的推移，我們將在美國各地開展其中的一些活動，甚至可能在國際範圍內進行。

We haven't declared total stores for 24, but what I can tell you is that we've been a net store opener for the last couple of years with the expectation that, that will continue to be so. Now for Hollister, to be more open and excited about testing and trying new things. So she did turn first for us for Hollister just like she did in A&F and we hope that she would bring -- on we are seeing nice improvement, though, in Hollister guys. I mean the non-denim bottoms have been very strong. Our fleece business, our sweaters business. So we're seeing category improvements, and our expectation is to continue to push at it and continue to see that expect -- continue to see that growth.

我們還沒有公佈 24 家門市的總數，但我可以告訴你的是，我們在過去幾年裡一直是淨開店，並預計這種情況將繼續如此。現在，對於霍利斯特來說，要更加開放和興奮地測試和嘗試新事物。所以她確實為我們霍利斯特隊首發，就像她在 A&F 中所做的那樣，我們希望她能帶來——不過，我們看到霍利斯特隊的球員有了很大的進步。我的意思是非牛仔褲非常堅固。我們的羊毛業務，我們的毛衣業務。因此，我們看到了類別的改進，我們的期望是繼續推動它並繼續看到預期 - 繼續看到這種增長。

Great. And would you consider like your personal best store or side-by-side? Or is Gilly Hicks really the vehicle, which you would grow that part of the business?

偉大的。您會考慮選擇您個人最好的商店還是並排的商店？或者 Gilly Hicks 真的是您發展這部分業務的工具嗎？

Yes. So YPB, Your Personal Best our active line for Abercrombie, we're seeing really nice growth in it. We have opened up some, I guess I would call them expenditure -- for example, like in our Fifth Avenue store, we just opened one up down in Aventura. So again, you know us, Marni, we are a test and learn culture. We're going to understand what the appetite is for this product, and we're going to continue to push on it.

是的。因此，YPB、Your Personal Best 是 Abercrombie 的活躍產品線，我們看到它的成長非常好。我們已經開設了一些，我想我會稱之為支出——例如，就像我們第五大道的商店一樣，我們剛剛在阿文圖拉開設了一家。再說一次，你了解我們，Marni，我們是一種測試和學習的文化。我們將了解人們對該產品的需求，並將繼續推動它。

And our next question coming from the line of Alex Straton from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞歷克斯·斯特拉頓（Alex Straton）。

Great. So do you view this as a holster inflection? And what processes have you put in place or change to kind of keep the brand from devolving back to where it was before?

偉大的。那你認為這是一種皮套變形嗎？您採取或改變了哪些流程來防止品牌退化到以前的狀態？

Yes,. It's exciting to see 2 consecutive quarters of growth. We're seeing lots of opportunity within the brand. As you know, we've repositioned it, and we have certainly come out with nice new marketing that the consumer is really responding to. We have a playbook that is working, where we focus on our assortment architecture, our product, our voice, our experience. And our expectation is to stay close to that customer and continue to see growth.

是的，。看到連續兩個季度的成長令人興奮。我們在該品牌中看到了很多機會。如您所知，我們對其進行了重新定位，並且我們確實推出了消費者真正響應的良好新行銷方式。我們有一個正在發揮作用的劇本，我們專注於我們的品類架構、我們的產品、我們的聲音和我們的體驗。我們的期望是與該客戶保持密切聯繫並繼續實現成長。

Yes. And also for Hollister, just like Abercrombie, we've been talking, the inventory is in a great place down nicely to last year and that brand is chasing. So as we're trying new things and have been broadening that assortment globally, we're able to chase into those winners and that's been part of the driver of Hollister, having that plus 8, and then having that plus 11. And so we're excited about going forward with clean inventory.

是的。對於 Hollister 來說，就像我們一直在談論的 Abercrombie 一樣，其庫存狀況比去年好很多，而且該品牌正在追逐。因此，當我們嘗試新事物並在全球範圍內擴大品種時，我們能夠追逐那些獲勝者，這也是霍利斯特驅動力的一部分，先加8，然後再加11。所以我們對清理庫存感到興奮。

And our next question coming from the line of Mauricio Serna with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Mauricio Serna。

Great. I guess just on the 4Q guidance. Should we assume kind of like the similar growth trend in terms of Abercrombie outperforming Hollister? And then maybe could you elaborate on the inventory decline by brand? Like I just want to understand like which brand has like a higher decline or where we see like a more moderate inventory levels on a brand perspective?

偉大的。我想只是在第四季的指導上。我們是否應該假設 Abercrombie 的表現優於 Hollister 也有類似的成長趨勢？那麼能否詳細說明一下以品牌劃分的庫存下降？就像我只是想了解哪個品牌的跌幅更大，或者從品牌角度來看，我們認為庫存水平更溫和？

And then when thinking about fiscal year '24, I know you're not giving guidance yet, but just thinking about our raw material cost recapture tailwind that you expect or that you have for 2024, maybe you could quantify that. And then just very lastly, could you talk about maybe about growth opportunities across each brand? I mean, I'm particularly interested in Hollister because I remember you had talked about the international business still being well below prepandemic levels. I just want to understand where we stand on that front.

然後，在考慮 24 財年時，我知道您還沒有給出指導，但只要考慮您期望的或 2024 年的原材料成本重新奪回順風，也許您可以量化這一點。最後，能否談談每個品牌的成長機會？我的意思是，我對霍利斯特特別感興趣，因為我記得您曾談到國際業務仍遠低於大流行前的水平。我只是想了解我們在這方面的立場。

Hi, Mauricio. Good to hear from you. All right. Let's start with the Q4 guidance. So yes, similar trends is what the expectation would be as we've seen throughout the year. A&F outperforming Hollister. We do expect growth across regions. Good to see a nice acceleration in the Europe and APAC regions in Q3 and optimistic we can see continued trends there in Q4. Inventory by brand is where we want it to be. Hollister is down much more than Abercrombie is down, obviously, with the Abercrombie growth trend, where it is. We've been adding inventory to that brand chasing throughout the year, and Hollister is down.

嗨，毛里西奧。很高興聽到你的消息。好的。讓我們從第四季的指導開始。所以，是的，正如我們全年所看到的那樣，類似的趨勢也是我們所期望的。 A&F 的表現優於 Hollister。我們確實預計各個地區都會出現成長。很高興看到第三季歐洲和亞太地區的成長勢頭良好，並且樂觀地我們可以看到第四季度的持續趨勢。按品牌分類的庫存正是我們所希望的。顯然，Hollister 的下滑幅度遠大於 Abercrombie 的下滑幅度，而 Abercrombie 的成長趨勢正是如此。我們全年都在增加庫存，以追逐該品牌，而霍利斯特卻在下降。

We were stuck last year with some of that carry forward inventory and really through year-end last year on the Hollister side, but very clean now and excited about moving forward. On the '24 raw materials, you noted it, we're not going to talk in detail about '24. What we've said throughout the year is holding.

去年，我們在霍利斯特方面一直滯留著一些結轉庫存，直到去年年底，但現在非常乾淨，並對繼續前進感到興奮。關於'24原料，你注意到了，我們不會詳細討論'24。我們這一年來所說的話仍然有效。

We'll see a little bit of freight benefit there in Q1 rolling into next year and then raw materials become a tailwind as we get into '24. So we'll talk a lot more about that on the Q4 call. And then the last piece was growth opportunity by brand. Hollister International, yes, we feel like we have an opportunity. COVID was tough for us.

我們將在明年第一季看到一點貨運收益，然後隨著進入 24 年，原料將成為推動力。因此，我們將在第四季度的電話會議上詳細討論這一點。最後一部分是品牌的成長機會。 Hollister International，是的，我們覺得我們有機會。新冠疫情對我們來說很艱難。

We've talked a lot about having a slow recovery coming out of COVID and more recently, it's nice to see that business pick up. It started in Q2. Q3, we're seeing nice traffic back to our stores. We've done a lot of localization efforts this year, pricing, marketing, inventory, and we're seeing that play out.

我們已經談論了很多關於新冠疫​​情帶來的緩慢復甦的問題，最近，很高興看到業務有所回升。它從第二季開始。第三季度，我們看到商店的客流量很大。今年我們在定價、行銷、庫存等方面做了很多在地化工作，我們正在看到這些努力的成效。

One example is we've been focusing on U.K. and Germany, 2 of our biggest countries in the region, localizing our content, putting more marketing dollars there and we've seen a really nice response on an omnichannel basis. So we have some optimism there outside of the U.S. for the Hollister business going forward.

一個例子是，我們一直專注於英國和德國，這兩個我們在該地區最大的國家，本地化我們的內容，投入更多的營銷資金，我們在全渠道的基礎上看到了非常好的反響。因此，我們對美國以外的霍利斯特業務的未來持樂觀態度。

And our next question coming from the line of Paul Lejuez from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。

This is Kelly on for Paul. Just curious, your 4Q guidance assumes a pretty meaningful deceleration in sales relative to the strengthening on 3Q. So just curious what's driving that. And if you could provide any more color on the 4Q quarterly comp trends? And any color by brand would be helpful. And then I have a follow-up.

這是凱利替保羅發言。只是好奇，您的第四季指導假設相對於第三季的強勁銷售出現相當有意義的減速。所以只是好奇是什麼推動了這一點。您能否提供有關第四季度季度比較趨勢的更多資訊？任何品牌的顏色都會有幫助。然後我有一個後續行動。

Sure. Kelly, it's Scott. I'll take this one. Yes. So Q4 guidance, we're sitting here. We talked about an encouraging start to the quarter. I wouldn't say these 3 weeks don't matter, but they're very small in the grand scheme. The game really starts today and tomorrow into the next 40 days through Christmas. So that's how we're sitting here today. We think this is a reasonable outlook.

當然。凱利，這是斯科特。我要這個。是的。所以第四季的指導，我們坐在這裡。我們談到了本季令人鼓舞的開局。我不會說這三週不重要，但在宏偉的計劃中它們非常小。比賽從今天和明天開始，一直持續到聖誕節之前的 40 天。這就是我們今天坐在這裡的方式。我們認為這是一個合理的前景。

Happy to be putting up another low double-digit outlook coming into the quarter. Inventory is in a great place, excited about pressing our bets in marketing as we go through the fourth quarter. Our profitability has afforded us the opportunity to do so. So really excited about the opportunity ahead of us. When we think about brands, we're not going to talk about brands for the last few weeks. But just on the last question, expect Hollister or Abercrombie to outperform Hollister in the quarter and growth across brands and regions.

很高興在本季再次提出低兩位數的前景。庫存狀況良好，我們對第四季在行銷方面的押注感到興奮。我們的盈利能力為我們提供了這樣做的機會。對我們面前的機會感到非常興奮。當我們思考品牌時，過去幾週我們不會談論品牌。但就最後一個問題而言，預計 Hollister 或 Abercrombie 在本季度的表現以及跨品牌和地區的成長將超越 Hollister。

Got it. And just 2 quick follow-ups. Just on the strength you're seeing in A&F. Just curious if you could maybe talk more about the new customers you bring to the fold and some of the new categories that the customer is giving you permission to offer. And just what gives you confidence that you can comp the comp at A&F next year? And then just on cash, any thoughts on share repos, given the significant cash you'll likely generate in the fourth quarter?

知道了。只需 2 次快速跟進。就憑您在 A&F 看到的實力。只是好奇您是否可以更多地談論您帶來的新客戶以及客戶允許您提供的一些新類別。是什麼讓您有信心參加明年 A&F 的比賽？然後就現金而言，考慮到您可能在第四季度產生大量現金，對股票回購有何想法？

Okay. I'll take that one. So as I mentioned just a couple of minutes ago, so we have really expanded Abercrombie to be a lifestyle brand, and that has afforded us the opportunity to add many new categories, things that we never were able to sell in the past. Non-denim bottoms is one particular one. I mean our pant business is very strong, both in men's and women's. There's a lot of fashion happening today in that category. And he and she continued to choose that category.

好的。我會接受那個。正如我幾分鐘前提到的，我們確實將 Abercrombie 擴展為一個生活方式品牌，這使我們有機會添加許多新的類別，這是我們過去從未銷售過的東西。非牛仔布下褲是一種特殊的下裝。我的意思是，我們的褲子業務非常強勁，無論是男裝還是女裝。如今這個類別中有很多時尚潮流。他和她繼續選擇這個類別。

They can wear that for many different wearing occasions, and that's also a big win for us. So expanding the addressable market as far as who's buying from us, age from late teens early 20s all the way up to 40 plus. We're seeing a very varied customer in our stores, which is super exciting. As far as franchises go, we just talked a little bit about YPB, our Best Dressed Guest business is also very good. Our fleece and licensing business has been very strong. So we continue to learn lots about what the customer is looking for and continue to offer that to them.

他們可以在許多不同的穿著場合穿著它，這對我們來說也是一個巨大的勝利。因此，我們正在擴大目標市場，擴大從我們這裡購買產品的人群，年齡範圍從 20 歲出頭一直到 40 歲以上。我們在商店裡看到了各種各樣的顧客，這非常令人興奮。至於特許經營，我們剛剛講了一點YPB，我們的最佳著裝嘉賓業務也很好。我們的羊毛和授權業務一直非常強勁。因此，我們繼續深入了解客戶的需求，並繼續為他們提供這些產品。

On the cash piece, yes, so great to see the cash flow generation this year, $350 million of operating cash flow through the first 9 months. As the business and profitability has improved inventory is obviously nice and lean. We're seeing that cash flow come in. We did put $50 million to work. We bought in some of those high-yield bonds this quarter, $50 million there. So exciting to put that cash to work. Going forward, it's really the same story we've talked about over the past couple of years. We're going to look at debt and share repurchases, our main ways to put excess cash to work.

在現金方面，是的，很高興看到今年現金流的產生，前 9 個月的營運現金流達 3.5 億美元。隨著業務和盈利能力的改善，庫存明顯良好且精簡。我們看到現金流進來了。我們確實投入了 5000 萬美元。本季我們購買了其中一些高收益債券，金額為 5000 萬美元。將這些現金投入使用真是令人興奮。展望未來，這確實是我們過去幾年談論的同樣的故事。我們將研究債務和股票回購，這是我們利用多餘現金的主要方式。

And our next question coming from the line Janet Kloppenburg with JJK Research Associates, Inc.

我們的下一個問題來自 JJK Research Associates, Inc. 的 Janet Kloppenburg。

Congratulations on really exciting results and trends. It's just thrilling to see this come back. Couple of questions, Fran. On Hollister Men, do you look for that momentum to pick up, just as we look out, I'm not talking about any particular time frame, but given what you see in the merchandising execution going forward and the opportunities that you appreciate. And then for Scott, when we think about the AUC opportunity, should we think about that building starting in the fourth quarter and then going through fiscal '24, like each quarter consecutively better as you sell through higher cost goods? I just want to understand about how we should think about that. And for Scott as well, when the freight benefits might start to win.

恭喜真正令人興奮的結果和趨勢。看到它回來真是令人興奮。有幾個問題，弗蘭。關於霍利斯特男裝，正如我們所期望的那樣，您是否希望這種勢頭有所回升，我不是在談論任何特定的時間框架，而是考慮到您在未來的銷售執行中看到的情況以及您欣賞的機會。然後，對於斯科特來說，當我們考慮AUC 機會時，我們是否應該考慮從第四季度開始建設，然後貫穿整個24 財年，就像您通過更高成本的商品銷售時每個季度連續更好？我只是想了解我們應該如何思考這個問題。對於斯科特來說也是如此，當貨運利益可能開始獲勝時。

Thanks. We'll start with Hollister guys. So it's exciting to see the progress in the entire brand, right? The second quarter of total growth and as you know, led by the girls business, which is exactly the same pattern that we saw, when we turned the A&F business.

謝謝。我們將從霍利斯特的傢伙開始。所以看到整個品牌的進步是令人興奮的，對吧？如你所知，第二季的整體成長是由女孩業務帶動的，這與我們轉向 A&F 業務時看到的模式完全相同。

But what's good today though is that our supply chain and our ability to chase is back in the business, and that is really the win for us. So for Hollister guys, we're going category by category. We're testing. We're learning. We're chasing after those opportunities. So we saw progress in non-denim bottoms in fleece and sweaters. Those categories we expect to continue into the fourth quarter, and we're going to go category by category as we head into '24 and continue to put test out there, learn and drive that business.

但今天的好處是我們的供應鏈和我們的追趕能力又回到了業務中，這對我們來說確實是勝利。因此，對於 Hollister 的人來說，我們將按類別進行分類。我們正在測試。我們正在學習。我們正在追逐這些機會。因此，我們看到了羊毛和毛衣等非牛仔布下裝的進步。我們預計這些類別將持續到第四季度，當我們進入 24 年時，我們將逐一類別進行測試，並繼續進行測試、學習和推動該業務。

Yes. On the AUC piece, Janet, so as we think about -- we'll continue to see freight benefits here in Q4. And like I said, cotton and raw materials, just a little bit of a hurt here and then turning into a tailwind next year. I'm not going to break apart Q or 2024 in a big way, but we talked about freight being kind of a first half Q1 benefit tailwind coming into 2024. And then on the cotton side, we'll talk more about that on the Q4 call.

是的。關於 AUC 部分，珍妮特，正如我們所想，我們將在第四季度繼續看到貨運效益。就像我說的，棉花和原料在這裡受到了一點傷害，然後在明年變成了順風車。我不會在很大程度上分解 Q 或 2024 年，但我們談到貨運是進入 2024 年上半年第一季的利好順風。然後在棉花方面，我們將在第四季度電話。

And our next question coming from the line of Dylan Carden with William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自迪倫·卡登和威廉·布萊爾的對話。

I just have 2. The first is just kind of trying to get a sense of particularly on the A&F brand, how many remodels repositioning's you feel you have left in the timeframe one might expect that to rollout?

我只有 2。第一個只是想了解 A&F 品牌，您認為在人們期望推出的時間範圍內還剩下多少改造重新定位？

Yes. On that one, Dylan. We have some opportunities left. And we've actually made a lot of progress on the A&F fleet, and it was really through the closures that we did back in 2020. We closed a bunch of those legacy oversized Abercrombie stores, and we've just come back to those markets with newer, leaner, more modernized stores. So we've made good progress there. So we have some more remodels, left. Yes, we do, but not in a huge way. The path to the future for Abercrombie is really about opening new stores in markets, where we don't have a presence. We've talked about these neighborhood stores and street stores that are a new thing for Abercrombie and we're probably about 8 or 10 in at this point, and there's a nice opportunity heading forward in that regard.

是的。就這一點而言，迪倫。我們還剩下一些機會。實際上，我們在 A&F 車隊方面取得了很大進展，這確實是透過我們在 2020 年關閉的舉措實現的。我們關閉了許多傳統的超大型 Abercrombie 商店，我們剛剛回到這些市場擁有更新、更精簡、更現代化的商店。所以我們在那裡取得了良好的進展。所以我們還有一些改造，剩下。是的，我們確實這樣做，但幅度不大。 Abercrombie 的未來之路實際上是在我們尚未涉足的市場開設新店。我們已經討論過這些鄰裡商店和街頭商店對 Abercrombie 來說是新事物，目前我們可能已經有 8 到 10 家了，在這方面有一個很好的機會。

Will those add to the total fleet size and those are incremental accounts like as opposed to (inaudible)?

這些會增加船隊的總規模嗎？這些是增量帳戶，而不是（聽不清楚）嗎？

Those would be incremental. When you think about this year, we're talking about 35 opens and 35 closes. So we'll be kind of net flat. And then we're also doing 20 remodels and rightsizes. So the way I like to look at it is we have 55 new experiences coming to the customer this year, and that's really exciting.

這些將是增量的。當你想到今年時，我們談論的是 35 個開放和 35 個關閉。所以我們會有點淨平坦。然後我們還進行了 20 次改造和調整尺寸。所以我喜歡的看法是，今年我們為客戶提供了 55 種新體驗，這真的很令人興奮。

Got it. And Scott, I know you're not going to talk much about this, but to the extent that we're trying to sort of underwrite earnings power of the model, kind of come a long way with as it relates to operating margin. I mean, trying to count the question and kind of getting (inaudible) speak to sort of, I guess, in relation to the 8% longer-term target. How much of this kind of the low double-digit margin that you're seeing now? Can you kind of attribute perhaps to outperformance comp relative to the cost environment? And what do you feel like you're left with sort of more volume growth?

知道了。斯科特，我知道你不會過多談論這個問題，但就我們試圖承保該模型的盈利能力而言，由於它與營業利潤率相關，因此取得了很大的進展。我的意思是，嘗試計算問題和（聽不清楚）說話的方式，我猜，與 8% 的長期目標有關。現在您看到的這種兩位數的低利潤率有多少？您能否將其歸因於相對於成本環境的卓越表現？您對銷售成長有何看法？

I mean anything to kind of help us, asset think about some of the earnings power for...

我的意思是任何對我們有幫助的事情，資產考慮一些盈利能力...

I'll go back to '22, whenever we had our Investor Day, we talked about getting some growth on the top line, a little bit of leverage and then getting some of that cost back in on the gross margin line. And what we've seen is both of those things happen in a bigger way and then we expected back in 2022 this quickly. Really solid sales growth this year, talking in that range of 12% to 14%. And we're going to see great leverage fall through to the bottom line there.

我會回到 22 年，每當我們舉辦投資者日時，我們都會討論如何實現營收成長、一點槓桿作用，然後將部分成本重新納入毛利率。我們所看到的是，這兩件事都在以更大的方式發生，然後我們預計 2022 年很快就會發生。今年的銷售成長確實穩健，增幅在 12% 到 14% 之間。我們將看到巨大的槓桿作用會影響利潤。

And then on the gross margin side, just seeing that freight costs come in pretty quickly and then getting to the end of the tail here in cotton. So it's just the same formula as we go forward. you've seen a really strong flow-through in the business on growth this year. So our goal is going to be the same for next year. We want to grow. We want to see some of that cost come back in -- and that's what we're thinking about for 2024. We're in the middle of our budget process right now, and we want to set this business up for long-term growth, sustainable growth.

然後在毛利率方面，只要看到運費成本很快就會增加，然後到達棉花的尾部。所以這與我們前進的公式是一樣的。今年您已經看到業務成長非常強勁。所以我們明年的目標是一樣的。我們想要成長。我們希望看到部分成本能夠回歸 — 這就是我們在 2024 年考慮的事情。我們現在正處於預算過程中，我們希望讓這項業務長期成長， 可持續成長。

Thank you. And I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Fran Horowitz for any closing remarks.

謝謝。目前我在隊列中沒有顯示任何其他問題。我現在想將電話轉回給弗蘭·霍洛維茨，請他發表結束語。

Yes, I just want to thank everyone for joining the call today, and we look forward to providing some more updates to you soon.

是的，我只是想感謝大家今天加入電話會議，我們期待很快為您提供更多更新。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。