Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Abercrombie & Fitch First Quarter and Year-End Fiscal Year 2022 Conference Call.

    美好的一天,謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 Abercrombie & Fitch 2022 財年第一季度和年終電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mo Gupta, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給今天的發言人,投資者關係副總裁莫古普塔。請繼續。

  • Mohit Gupta

    Mohit Gupta

  • Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our first quarter 2023 earnings call. Joining me today on the call are Fran Horowitz, Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Lipesky, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer.

    謝謝。早上好,歡迎來到我們 2023 年第一季度的財報電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有首席執行官 Fran Horowitz;首席財務官兼首席運營官 Scott Lipesky。

  • Earlier this morning, we issued our first quarter earnings release, which is available on our website at corporate.abercrombie.com under the Investors section. Also available on our website is an investor presentation.

    今天上午早些時候,我們發布了第一季度收益報告,可在我們網站 corporate.abercrombie.com 的“投資者”部分獲取。我們的網站上還提供投資者介紹。

  • Keep in mind that we will make certain forward-looking statements on the call. These statements are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations and assumptions we mentioned today.

    請記住,我們將在電話會議上做出某些前瞻性陳述。這些陳述受 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款的約束,並受到可能導致實際結果與我們今天提到的預期和假設存在重大差異的風險和不確定性的影響。

  • These factors and uncertainties are discussed in our reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures during the call. Additional details and reconciliation of GAAP to adjusted non-GAAP financial measures are included in the release and investor presentation issued earlier this morning.

    我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告和文件中討論了這些因素和不確定性。此外,我們將在電話會議期間提及某些非 GAAP 財務指標。 GAAP 與調整後的非 GAAP 財務指標的更多細節和對賬包含在今天上午早些時候發布的新聞稿和投資者介紹中。

  • Finally, references to Abercrombie brands includes our Abercrombie & Fitch and Abercrombie kids brands and references to Hollister brands include our Hollister, Gilly Hicks and Social Tourist brands. With that, I will turn the call over to Fran.

    最後,提及 Abercrombie 品牌包括我們的 Abercrombie & Fitch 和 Abercrombie kids 品牌,提及 Hollister 品牌包括我們的 Hollister、Gilly Hicks 和 Social Tourist 品牌。有了這個,我會把電話轉給弗蘭。

  • Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

    Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

  • Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to walk through our first quarter results. I'm excited to share that we surpassed expectations on both the top and bottom line despite a challenging macro environment.

    早上好,感謝您今天加入我們,了解我們的第一季度業績。我很高興與大家分享,儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰,但我們在收入和利潤方面都超出了預期。

  • Total company sales grew 3%, led by historic performance in Abercrombie brands, where we were up 14% to last year. As we've discussed, top line growth is one of our top priorities, and I'm proud of how our teams continue to deliver incredible product and brand experiences for our customers.

    公司總銷售額增長了 3%,這主要得益於 Abercrombie 品牌的歷史業績,我們在這些品牌中比去年增長了 14%。正如我們所討論的那樣,收入增長是我們的首要任務之一,我為我們的團隊如何繼續為我們的客戶提供令人難以置信的產品和品牌體驗而感到自豪。

  • Additionally, our work over the last year to reduce freight costs paid off this quarter, with 570 basis points of gross profit rate improvement year-over-year, driving a 4.1% operating margin compared to a loss last year.

    此外,我們去年減少運費的工作在本季度得到了回報,毛利率同比提高了 570 個基點,與去年的虧損相比,營業利潤率提高了 4.1%。

  • Looking forward, we are increasing our outlook for this full year based on a combination of our first quarter results and second quarter expectations. We're also showing our product flexibility with inventory down 20% to last year with high confidence that we can support demand through the return of chase capabilities.

    展望未來,我們將結合第一季度業績和第二季度預期,提高對全年的展望。我們還展示了我們的產品靈活性,庫存比去年下降了 20%,我們非常有信心通過追逐能力的回歸來支持需求。

  • And although it's early in the year, 2023 is off to a great start. We remain focused on managing the business prudently to deliver the balance of the year while appropriately investing to position ourselves for long-term profitable growth.

    儘管現在是年初,但 2023 年已經有了一個良好的開端。我們仍然專注於審慎地管理業務以實現今年的餘額,同時適當投資以使我們自己定位於長期盈利增長。

  • Sharing more on Abercrombie brand's successful first quarter, total brand sales were $436 million, accounting for 52% of total company sales, up 14% on top of 13% growth in the first quarter of last year. This is truly the most powerful brand transformation that I've seen in my career.

    更多分享 Abercrombie 品牌第一季度的成功,品牌總銷售額為 4.36 億美元,占公司總銷售額的 52%,比去年第一季度的 13% 增長了 14%。這確實是我職業生涯中見過的最強大的品牌轉型。

  • By listening to our customers and putting them at the center of everything we do, we are delivering product, voice and experience that are tightly aligned and continue to resonate. Being able to deliver consistent growth quarter after quarter underlines the enormous potential we have within Abercrombie brands. It's even more special to see how we're growing Abercrombie, showing strength of our customer connection.

    通過傾聽客戶的意見並將他們置於我們所做一切的中心,我們正在提供緊密結合併繼續引起共鳴的產品、聲音和體驗。能夠一個季度又一個季度地實現持續增長,突顯了我們在 Abercrombie 品牌中擁有的巨大潛力。更特別的是看到我們如何發展 Abercrombie,展示我們與客戶聯繫的力量。

  • Sales improvement in the quarter was balanced across genders, channels and geographies. As we've discussed previously, the women's business led our turnaround and continued its strong trend with its 11th consecutive quarter of double-digit increases. More recently, we've seen the men's business turn on, delivering its third consecutive quarter of growth.

    本季度的銷售增長在性別、渠道和地區之間保持平衡。正如我們之前所討論的那樣,女性業務引領了我們的轉變,並連續第 11 個季度實現兩位數增長,繼續保持強勁趨勢。最近,我們看到男裝業務開始復蘇,連續第三個季度實現增長。

  • Across genders, AUR was up nicely, representing the highest level since 2005 and meaningfully contributing to our overall gross profit rate improvement. AUR is now up significantly from pre-pandemic levels, which is a clear measure of the inherent value and relevance customers see in our assortment.

    就性別而言,AUR 增長良好,達到 2005 年以來的最高水平,對我們整體毛利率的改善做出了有意義的貢獻。 AUR 現在比大流行前的水平顯著上升,這是衡量客戶在我們的產品組合中看到的內在價值和相關性的明確衡量標準。

  • At this point of journey, Abercrombie has established rhythm, we're finding, winning and retaining customers digitally through a genuine brand voice, supported by a seamless experience in our stores, our app and the web.

    在這段旅程中,Abercrombie 已經確立了節奏,我們正在通過真正的品牌聲音以數字方式尋找、贏得和留住客戶,並得到我們商店、應用程序和網絡的無縫體驗的支持。

  • On digital engagement, our team has leveraged social media platforms to showcase our lifestyle offerings, where we are able to highlight key must-win products for us in an authentic way. Social has proven to be a great channel for our target millennial customer. Further, we're extending the assortment with new styles and collections like Best Dressed Guests and YPB to outfit them for professional, active or casual environments, keeping them coming back to find something new.

    在數字參與方面,我們的團隊利用社交媒體平台展示我們的生活方式產品,我們能夠以真實的方式為我們突出關鍵的必贏產品。事實證明,對於我們的目標千禧一代客戶來說,社交是一個很好的渠道。此外,我們還通過新款式和新系列(例如 Best Dressed Guests 和 YPB)擴展了品類,讓他們適合專業、活躍或休閒的環境,讓他們回來尋找新的東西。

  • We are energized about the results in Abercrombie, and we are aiming to reach new heights this year. We feel great about how the brand is positioned, and we are chasing inventory to support growth.

    我們對 Abercrombie 的成果充滿活力,我們的目標是今年達到新的高度。我們對品牌的定位感覺很好,我們正在追逐庫存以支持增長。

  • Moving on to Hollister Brands. Later in Q2, we'll hit the 1-year mark since we saw teen apparel demand shift significantly downward. While first quarter sales were not where we need them to be, the Hollister assortment evolution is on track, heading towards back-to-school with a fresh, more balanced perspective.

    轉向霍利斯特品牌。在第二季度晚些時候,我們將達到 1 年大關,因為我們看到青少年服裝需求顯著下降。雖然第一季度的銷售額沒有達到我們需要的水平,但 Hollister 產品系列的發展正在步入正軌,以全新、更平衡的視角走向返校。

  • As we talked about the last couple of quarters, these changes are informed by the comprehensive work the team has undertaken to know our team. We're testing and collecting feedback as we evolve the product piece by piece, and we have fully addressed the assortment as we enter the second half of the year.

    正如我們談到過去幾個季度時,這些變化是由團隊為了解我們的團隊而進行的全面工作所告知的。我們在逐步改進產品的過程中正在測試和收集反饋,並且在進入下半年時我們已經全面解決了分類問題。

  • Hollister's first quarter sales decline of 7% was consistent with internal expectations. We focused on managing the overall health of the business in terms of gross profit rate and inventory, and we surpassed internal expectations on both fronts.

    好利斯特第一季度銷售額下降 7%,符合內部預期。我們專注於管理業務在毛利率和庫存方面的整體健康狀況,我們在這兩個方面都超出了內部預期。

  • Hollister was able to expand gross profit rate nicely compared to last year on a combination of lower freight and higher AUR as tightly managed inventory allowed us to be more selective with promotions.

    與去年相比,Hollister 能夠很好地擴大毛利率,這得益於較低的運費和較高的 AUR,因為嚴格管理的庫存使我們能夠更有選擇性地進行促銷。

  • In fact, Hollister inventory was down more than the total company level of 20%, which puts the brand in an excellent position to leverage chase and invest in winning categories as we move through the summer and back-to-school seasons.

    事實上,Hollister 庫存下降超過公司總水平 20%,這使該品牌在我們度過夏季和開學季時處於有利地位,可以利用追逐和投資獲勝類別。

  • Our Q1 results in Hollister [Shore] are focused on running a healthy business in a challenging teen market as we lay the foundation for growth. I'm excited to see what this team can produce in the second quarter and look forward to sharing Hollister's progress through the year. We'll share our consolidated financial outlook for the business in a few minutes, but I'd like to offer some context on how we are thinking about the remainder of 2023 as well as how we'll deliver on our long-term aspirations.

    我們在 Hollister [Shore] 的第一季度業績專注於在充滿挑戰的青少年市場中經營健康的業務,因為我們為增長奠定了基礎。我很高興看到這個團隊在第二季度能取得什麼成果,並期待與大家分享 Hollister 在這一年中取得的進展。我們將在幾分鐘內分享我們對業務的綜合財務展望,但我想提供一些背景信息,說明我們如何考慮 2023 年剩餘時間以及我們將如何實現我們的長期目標。

  • As you may recall, while the 3 pillars of our 2025 Always Forward Plan, which we introduced last year at our Investor Day, its focused brand growth. We remain committed to delivering on this ambition despite macroeconomic uncertainty, by leveraging our playbook and a transformed operating model. Our other 2 strategic pillars helped support the growth ambition. The digital revolution ensures we stay closer to our customer as digital touches every aspect of their lives, including how they shop. The third pillar, financial discipline keeps us on a profitable path as we invest for the long term.

    您可能還記得,我們去年在投資者日推出的 2025 Always Forward 計劃的三大支柱是專注於品牌增長。儘管宏觀經濟存在不確定性,但我們仍然致力於通過利用我們的劇本和轉變後的運營模式來實現這一目標。我們的其他 2 個戰略支柱幫助支持了增長雄心。數字革命確保我們更貼近客戶,因為數字觸及他們生活的方方面面,包括他們的購物方式。第三個支柱,財務紀律讓我們在長期投資時走上盈利之路。

  • With our playbook and our Always Forward Plan, we believe we have the tools in place, including the ability to chase inventory to show up for our customers whenever, wherever and however they want to engage with us. To be clear, our focus at this phase of our journey is to grow the business as a whole by building and maintaining strong, long-lasting customer relationships.

    憑藉我們的劇本和我們的永遠前進計劃,我們相信我們擁有適當的工具,包括追踪庫存的能力,以便隨時隨地為我們的客戶展示他們想要與我們互動的方式。需要明確的是,我們在旅程的這個階段的重點是通過建立和維護強大、持久的客戶關係來發展整個業務。

  • With Abercrombie brands, we are further along and expect to use momentum we're seeing to push both customer acquisition and retention. In Hollister, we're applying customer insights and continue to focus on evolving the assortment and brand positioning.

    對於 Abercrombie 品牌,我們走得更遠,並期望利用我們看到的勢頭來推動客戶獲取和保留。在 Hollister,我們正在應用客戶洞察力,並繼續專注於改進品類和品牌定位。

  • Whilst early in 2023, our team's strong first quarter execution against a challenging macro backdrop gives us cautious optimism as we look to the second quarter and beyond. We will navigate this dynamic environment as we have in the past to drive progress towards our long-term vision.

    2023 年初,我們團隊在充滿挑戰的宏觀背景下強勁的第一季度執行力讓我們對第二季度及以後持謹慎樂觀態度。我們將像過去一樣駕馭這個充滿活力的環境,以推動實現我們的長期願景。

  • Before we turn to our financial review, I would like to recognize Scott for his incredible efforts helping A&F Co. transform and set our sights on growth. Congratulations, Scott, on becoming our Chief Operating Officer, in addition to your role as CFO.

    在我們開始財務回顧之前,我想感謝 Scott 為幫助 A&F Co. 轉型和讓我們著眼於增長所做的不可思議的努力。恭喜斯科特,除了擔任首席財務官一職外,還成為我們的首席運營官。

  • I'm excited to have Scott take a broader leadership position overseeing key operational areas like supply chain and store operations to help drive connectivity and key investments to support our broader growth ambition. I'll turn it over to him now to provide some more color on the quarter, all things financial discipline.

    我很高興 Scott 擔任更廣泛的領導職務,負責監督供應鍊和商店運營等關鍵運營領域,以幫助推動連通性和關鍵投資,以支持我們更廣泛的增長目標。我現在將其轉交給他,為本季度提供更多色彩,包括所有財務紀律。

  • Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • Thanks, Fran, and good morning. I'll hit on a few highlights before we open up for questions. Also, with the COVID-related store closures essentially out of the base, we will once again provide comparable sales metrics.

    謝謝,弗蘭,早上好。在我們開始提問之前,我將重點介紹幾個要點。此外,由於與 COVID 相關的商店關閉基本上超出了基礎,我們將再次提供可比較的銷售指標。

  • Now on to Q1 results. On the top line, we were pleased to deliver net sales of $836 million, up 3% to last year. This marked the highest first quarter sales level since 2014 and exceeded the expectations shared in our fourth quarter call.

    現在來看第一季度的結果。最重要的是,我們很高興實現了 8.36 億美元的淨銷售額,比去年增長 3%。這是自 2014 年以來最高的第一季度銷售水平,超出了我們在第四季度電話會議中分享的預期。

  • Sales were negatively impacted by 110 basis points or $9 million due to changes in foreign currency. Total company comp sales for the quarter were up 3%. By region, we saw continued strength in the U.S., with total net sales up 9%, including 4% comp growth and a positive contribution from net new stores.

    由於外匯變動,銷售額受到 110 個基點或 900 萬美元的負面影響。本季度公司總銷售額增長了 3%。按地區劃分,我們看到美國市場持續走強,總淨銷售額增長 9%,其中 4% 的複合增長率和淨新店的積極貢獻。

  • Our international business declined 12% in total, but was flat on a comp basis. The spread between total sales and comps was driven by lower whole sale revenues and year-over-year adverse impacts from changes in foreign currency.

    我們的國際業務總計下降了 12%,但在比較基礎上持平。總銷售額和 comp 之間的差異是由較低的整體銷售收入和外匯變動的同比不利影響推動的。

  • In APAC, we realized the benefit of the China reopening, delivering 22% comp sales growth. Moving on to gross profit. Our rate was 61% compared to 55.3% last year. Looking at the key drivers of the 570 basis point improvement, approximately 230 basis points came from AUR growth with better-than-expected performance across brands as we benefited from select ticket increases initiated in the second half of last year, as well as more controlled promotions.

    在亞太地區,我們意識到中國重新開放的好處,實現了 22% 的銷售額增長。繼續看毛利。我們的比率為 61%,而去年為 55.3%。從 570 個基點改善的主要驅動因素來看,約 230 個基點來自 AUR 增長,各品牌的表現好於預期,因為我們受益於去年下半年開始的精選門票增加,以及更受控促銷活動。

  • We also saw a benefit of approximately 760 basis points from lower freight costs as we realized lower freight rates and lapped the impact of increased air usage last year. These benefits were partially offset by 320 basis points of higher cotton and other raw material costs and an adverse impact of around 100 basis points from foreign currency.

    我們還從較低的運費中看到了大約 760 個基點的好處,因為我們意識到較低的運費並彌補了去年航空使用量增加的影響。這些好處被棉花和其他原材料成本上漲 320 個基點以及外匯帶來的約 100 個基點的不利影響部分抵消。

  • We are pleased with the state of the supply chain with freight cost decreasing and shipping times improving compared to the past couple of years. The improved consistency in the supply chain and tight inventory management enabled us to decrease our inventory levels by 20% compared to the first quarter of 2022 when we front-loaded inventory to avoid supply chain disruptions.

    與過去幾年相比,我們對供應鏈的狀況感到滿意,運費成本下降,運輸時間縮短。與 2022 年第一季度相比,我們提前加載庫存以避免供應鏈中斷,與 2022 年第一季度相比,供應鏈一致性的提高和嚴格的庫存管理使我們的庫存水平降低了 20%。

  • We expect to run inventory lower than last year for the second and third quarters and in line with last year by the end of the fourth quarter. I'll now cover the rest of our first quarter results on an adjusted non-GAAP basis. Excluded from our non-GAAP results this quarter are $4 million of pretax asset impairment charges, which adversely impacted results by approximately $0.06.

    我們預計第二和第三季度的庫存將低於去年,並在第四季度末與去年持平。我現在將在調整後的非 GAAP 基礎上介紹我們第一季度的其餘結果。本季度我們的非 GAAP 業績不包括 400 萬美元的稅前資產減值費用,這對業績產生了約 0.06 美元的不利影響。

  • Last year, we excluded $3 million of pretax asset impairment charges, which adversely impacted results by $0.05. Operating expense, excluding other operating income, was $474 million compared to $460 million last year, with the increase driven by investments in digital and technology and higher incentive-based compensation expense partially offset by lower marketing and digital fulfillment expense.

    去年,我們排除了 300 萬美元的稅前資產減值費用,這對結果產生了 0.05 美元的不利影響。不包括其他營業收入的運營費用為 4.74 億美元,而去年為 4.6 億美元,增長的原因是數字和技術投資以及基於激勵的薪酬支出增加,部分被較低的營銷和數字履行費用所抵消。

  • Operating income was $38 million compared to an operating loss of $6 million last year and included a $9 million adverse impact from foreign currency. Operating income exceeded our internal expectation coming into the quarter, driven by the combination of higher sales and a better-than-expected gross profit rate driven by higher AURs.

    營業收入為 3800 萬美元,而去年營業虧損為 600 萬美元,其中包括 900 萬美元的外匯不利影響。營業收入超出了我們進入本季度的內部預期,這是由於較高的銷售額和較高的 AUR 推動的好於預期的毛利率共同推動的。

  • Net income per diluted share was $0.39 compared to a net loss per share of $0.27 last year. On the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with cash of $447 million and liquidity of $758 million. As we look to the second quarter and the rest of 2023, we expect to continue to manage a strong liquidity position as we work through this period of macro uncertainty to help ensure we can invest for the long term through any cycle.

    每股攤薄收益為 0.39 美元,而去年每股淨虧損為 0.27 美元。在資產負債表上,本季度末我們的現金為 4.47 億美元,流動資金為 7.58 億美元。展望第二季度和 2023 年剩餘時間,我們預計將在這段宏觀不確定性時期繼續管理強勁的流動性頭寸,以幫助確保我們能夠在任何週期進行長期投資。

  • As Fran mentioned, we remain cautiously optimistic about consumer demand and updates to our full year outlook are driven by the first quarter performance and our current view of the second quarter. This updated full year outlook replaces all previous full year guidance.

    正如 Fran 提到的,我們對消費者需求保持謹慎樂觀,我們對全年展望的更新受到第一季度業績和我們目前對第二季度的看法的推動。這一更新後的全年展望取代了之前所有的全年指導。

  • For the full year, we are planning net sales growth in the range of 2% to 4% from the 2022 level of approximately $3.7 billion. This is up slightly to our previous outlook of up 1% to 3% due to the outperformance in the first quarter and our expectations for the second quarter.

    對於全年,我們計劃在 2022 年約 37 億美元的基礎上實現 2% 至 4% 的淨銷售額增長。由於第一季度的出色表現以及我們對第二季度的預期,這略高於我們之前的增長 1% 至 3% 的預期。

  • Adjusting for these first half changes, our implied second half sales outlook remains consistent with the prior outlook due to the high level of macro uncertainty. As mentioned last quarter, we expect to support growth with net new store openings in 2023. We expect 35 to 40 openings and 20 to 25 closures, along with approximately 15 store remodels and rightsizes.

    對這些上半年變化進行調整後,由於宏觀不確定性很高,我們隱含的下半年銷售前景與之前的展望保持一致。正如上個季度所述,我們預計 2023 年將通過淨新店開張來支持增長。我們預計將開設 35 至 40 家,關閉 20 至 25 家,以及大約 15 家門店改造和規模調整。

  • Openings will be tilted to the U.S. and the Abercrombie & Fitch banner. For operating margin, we expect to be in the range of 5% to 6%, up from our previous outlook of 4% to 5%. We now expect a gross profit rate benefit of approximately 250 basis points from the net impacts of lower freight costs and higher cotton costs and higher-than-expected AUR in the first quarter.

    開口將向美國和 Abercrombie & Fitch 旗幟傾斜。對於營業利潤率,我們預計將在 5% 至 6% 的範圍內,高於我們之前預期的 4% 至 5%。我們現在預計第一季度貨運成本下降和棉花成本上升以及高於預期的 AUR 的淨影響將使毛利率受益約 250 個基點。

  • This compares to our previous estimate of 200 basis points. We expect an effective tax rate in the high 30s compared to our previous expectation of mid-40s due to higher expected profitability levels and CapEx remains at approximately $160 million.

    相比之下,我們之前估計為 200 個基點。由於更高的預期盈利水平和資本支出保持在約 1.6 億美元,我們預計有效稅率將高於 30 多歲,而我們之前的預期是 40 多歲。

  • For the second quarter of 2023, we are planning net sales growth to be in the range of 4% to 6% compared to the fiscal second quarter 2022 level of $805 million. Embedded in this outlook is the assumption that Abercrombie continues on a growth trajectory, and Hollister makes sequential progress of the first quarter sales trend of down 7%.

    與 2022 財年第二季度的 8.05 億美元相比,我們計劃在 2023 年第二季度實現 4% 至 6% 的淨銷售額增長。這一前景中包含的假設是 Abercrombie 繼續保持增長軌跡,而 Hollister 使第一季度銷售趨勢連續下降 7%。

  • For Hollister, our inventory is controlled, and we expect to run a healthier and more profitable business as we lap significant promotional activity last year. Our teams are ready to compete and chase into upside demand across key categories. For operating margin, we expect a range of 2% to 3% compared to approximately breakeven last year, with the year-over-year improvement driven by a higher gross profit rate due to a net benefit from lower freight and higher cotton costs. And an effective tax rate of around 50% with the rate being sensitive to the jurisdictional mix and level of income.

    對 Hollister 而言,我們的庫存受到控制,隨著我們去年開展重大促銷活動,我們希望經營更健康、利潤更高的業務。我們的團隊已準備好競爭並追逐關鍵類別的上行需求。對於營業利潤率,我們預計與去年的盈虧平衡相比,在 2% 至 3% 的範圍內,由於運費下降和棉花成本上升帶來的淨收益,毛利率上升推動了同比改善。有效稅率約為 50%,該稅率對管轄區組合和收入水平敏感。

  • To finish off, we were pleased to return to profitability in the first quarter. We are managing our inventory tightly and believe our brands are in a flexible position to chase potential demand in the months to come. Behind the scenes, we look forward to making another quarter of progress against strategic investment plans and digital technology and stores. And with that, operator, we are ready for questions.

    最後,我們很高興在第一季度恢復盈利。我們正在嚴格管理我們的庫存,並相信我們的品牌在未來幾個月內處於靈活的位置以追逐潛在需求。在幕後,我們期待在戰略投資計劃以及數字技術和門店方面再取得四分之一的進展。有了這個,接線員,我們準備好提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • First question from the line of Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group.

    來自 Dana Telsey 與 Telsey Advisory Group 的第一個問題。

  • Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

    Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

  • Congratulations on the nice progress. And Scott, congratulations on the elevated role. Can you talk a little bit about Hollister, Fran, what you're seeing there and how you think about it for the back half of the year and the cadence there?

    祝賀你取得了不錯的進步。斯科特,祝賀你升職。你能談談霍利斯特,弗蘭,你在那裡看到了什麼,你對今年下半年的看法以及那裡的節奏嗎?

  • And Scott, can you talk about any of the under-the-hood puts and takes on gross margin, particularly in reference to the promotional environment?

    斯科特,你能談談任何幕後的看跌期權和毛利率,特別是在促銷環境方面嗎?

  • Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

    Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Dana. Yes. So Hollister met our internal expectations for Q1. We brought it back to being a healthy business, which we're very excited about to see some AUR growth in there with an important opportunity for us with our customer, the inventories being under control. But I just want to step back a minute and just kind of take on a little bit of a journey. As you know that the teen -- a lot of the teen retailers got a bit pressed last year during Q2, during back-to-school. Our team has been hard at work. They have been very focused on evolving their assortments, getting close to that customer, working on their assortment architecture, and I'm really proud of the progress that they've made.

    謝謝,達娜。是的。因此,Hollister 達到了我們對第一季度的內部預期。我們把它帶回了一個健康的企業,我們很高興看到那裡的 AUR 有所增長,這對我們的客戶來說是一個重要的機會,庫存受到控制。但我只想退後一步,開始一段旅程。正如你所知,去年第二季度返校期間,很多青少年零售商都受到了一些壓力。我們的團隊一直在努力工作。他們一直非常專注於發展他們的分類,接近客戶,致力於他們的分類架構,我為他們取得的進步感到非常自豪。

  • We're seeing some nice green shoots in the business. The shift, a little bit out of denim into some non-denim bottoms is working. The cargo trend continues. Our dress business in girls is really terrific. So some exciting things, and I'm looking forward to what they can deliver for back-to-school.

    我們在業務中看到了一些不錯的萌芽。這種從牛仔佈到一些非牛仔布底部的轉變正在奏效。貨運趨勢仍在繼續。我們的女裝服飾生意真的很棒。所以一些令人興奮的事情,我期待著他們能為返校帶來什麼。

  • Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • Dana, thank you first off. And on the gross margin, so obviously a lot going on here in Q1, made great progress year-over-year. We got a lot of that freight back that hit us last year. That air usage that we had in Q4 of '21, a lot of that carried over into Q1.

    達娜,首先謝謝你。在毛利率方面,第一季度顯然發生了很多事情,同比取得了長足進步。我們收回了去年打擊我們的大量運費。我們在 21 年第四季度的空氣使用量,其中很多都延續到了第一季度。

  • So you add that with good freight rates that we're seeing in ocean and elsewhere, really nice improvement in gross margin. And I'd say the one outlier for us in Q1 was beating our AUR forecast coming into the quarter. As we think about the rest of the year, we're not assuming AUR growth the rest of the year, that would be upside to our plans.

    所以你加上我們在海運和其他地方看到的良好運費,毛利率真的很好提高。我想說的是,我們在第一季度的一個異常值超過了我們對進入本季度的 AUR 預測。當我們考慮今年餘下時間時,我們不會假設 AUR 在今年餘下時間增長,這將有利於我們的計劃。

  • Obviously, it's a dynamic macro environment. But 2 things give us a great chance to raise that AUR? That's -- #1 is our inventory is in control. Fran mentioned down 20%. We feel good about where the inventory is positioned in each brand. Chase is open, we can go get inventory if we need it, and we can get it at a nice cost.

    顯然,這是一個動態的宏觀環境。但是有兩件事給了我們提高 AUR 的好機會?那是——#1 是我們的庫存在控制之中。弗蘭提到下降了 20%。我們對每個品牌的庫存定位感到滿意。大通是開放的,如果我們需要的話,我們可以去獲取庫存,而且我們可以以一個不錯的成本獲得它。

  • And the other piece are the assortments. Fran just mentioned Hollister. We're testing. We're learning. We feel good. Abercrombie is in a great rhythm and rolling. So those give us good opportunities long term.

    另一部分是分類。弗蘭剛剛提到了霍利斯特。我們正在測試。我們正在學習。我們感覺很好。 Abercrombie 的節奏和節奏非常棒。所以這些給了我們長期的好機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

  • Matthew Boss

    Matthew Boss

  • Congrats on a great quarter. So Fran, at Abercrombie, could you speak to the cadence of the 14% comp? Maybe touch on customer traffic trends and just customer behavior that you've seen more recently in the second quarter? And then, Scott, on inventory, what is your ability to chase this season and even into the back half of the year if top line trends were to continue?

    祝賀一個偉大的季度。那麼 Abercrombie 的 Fran,你能談談 14% comp 的節奏嗎?也許觸及客戶流量趨勢以及您最近在第二季度看到的客戶行為?然後,斯科特,在庫存方面,如果頂線趨勢繼續下去,你在本賽季甚至下半年追逐的能力是什麼?

  • Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

    Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Super exciting news to deliver for Abercrombie brands. I mean to pick up to your point, 14% on top of last year's 13% is really a nice indicator about how much the consumer is just loving our brand.

    是的。為 Abercrombie 品牌帶來超級激動人心的消息。我的意思是接受你的觀點,比去年的 13% 高出 14% 確實是一個很好的指標,表明消費者對我們品牌的喜愛程度。

  • What is driving that is a lot of exciting things. It's no longer just a jeans and T-shirt business. We've been able to expand into dresses, into all sorts of occasions to satisfy this consumer from -- our pant business is very strong. The men's business third quarter of positive comps there as well.

    推動的是很多令人興奮的事情。它不再只是牛仔褲和 T 卹業務。我們已經能夠擴展到連衣裙,進入各種場合來滿足這個消費者——我們的褲子業務非常強大。男裝業務第三季度也有積極的表現。

  • So as you know, we started this turn with women's and now the men's business is following suit. So as far as the customer behavior goes, we're seeing them very excited about the product, and we mentioned that we're pleased with we're off to the start for the second quarter.

    所以如你所知,我們從女裝開始,現在男裝也在效仿。因此,就客戶行為而言,我們看到他們對產品非常興奮,我們提到我們很高興第二季度開始了。

  • Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • On the inventory side, it is great to have the chase capability back. Our teams are literally chasing every day. The stability in the supply chain is making that easier than it has been in the past few years.

    在庫存方面,恢復追逐能力真是太好了。我們的團隊每天都在追逐。供應鏈的穩定性使這比過去幾年更容易。

  • Ocean shipping has been good, we can chase through ocean. And there's also a lot more air capacity out there and the rates have come down pretty dramatically since the peak back there in 2021 and early '22. So we have the ability. Our teams are using that ability. We're running the inventory lean. And as we see wins, we're able to chase them pretty quickly.

    海運一直很好,我們可以通過海洋追逐。而且那裡還有更多的空中容量,而且自 2021 年和 22 年初達到峰值以來,運費已經大幅下降。所以我們有能力。我們的團隊正在使用這種能力。我們正在運行庫存精益。當我們看到勝利時,我們能夠很快追上他們。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Corey Tarlowe with Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Corey Tarlowe 與 Jefferies 的合作。

  • Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

    Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

  • Congrats on the strong quarter, and Scott, congrats on the new role. So -- Yes. So -- maybe if you could just talk a little bit more about -- Fran, you walked us through the journey for Hollister. Maybe a little bit more on Abercrombie specifically? And the reason I ask is because I think this is the first quarter in quite some time where you've actually seen higher sales volume at Abercrombie in totality than you've seen at Hollister.

    祝賀強勁的季度,斯科特,祝賀新角色。所以——是的。所以——也許如果你能多談談——弗蘭,你帶領我們完成了霍利斯特的旅程。也許更多關於 Abercrombie 的內容?我問的原因是因為我認為這是很長一段時間以來第一個季度,你實際上看到 Abercrombie 的總體銷量高於你在 Hollister 看到的銷量。

  • So maybe could you put that into context for us, how you think about the sales trajectory for the A&F business. It seems like things are going really well overall. Maybe relative to the size of Hollister on a go-forward basis? Any color there would be particularly helpful.

    那麼,也許你能為我們把它放在背景中,你如何看待 A&F 業務的銷售軌跡。看起來事情總體上進展順利。也許相對於 Hollister 的規模而言?那裡的任何顏色都會特別有幫助。

  • Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

    Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

  • Sure. So to your point, we've been on a journey with Abercrombie as well. We really started the turn focusing on the women's business. That was step 1, getting that business back to being a healthy business.

    當然。因此,就您的觀點而言,我們也一直在與 Abercrombie 一起踏上旅程。我們真正開始了專注於女性業務的轉變。這是第 1 步,讓該企業恢復健康。

  • We've seen some really exciting things happening there. We've built some franchises, Corey. So off of our traditional business, we've been able to build, for example, like the Best Dressed Guest business. Our dress business in total, I mean, it's just terrific.

    我們已經看到那裡發生了一些非常令人興奮的事情。我們已經建立了一些特許經營權,科里。因此,在我們的傳統業務之外,我們已經能夠建立,例如,最佳著裝嘉賓業務。總的來說,我們的服裝業務非常棒。

  • We're setting records year after year. The consumer is coming to us for so much more than what they initially thought Abercrombie stood for. And that's a big, big testament to the brand and a win for the team. And they keep on including -- we keep launching more franchises.

    我們年復一年地創造記錄。消費者來到我們這裡的目的遠遠超過他們最初認為的 Abercrombie 代表的意義。這是對品牌的重大證明,也是團隊的勝利。他們繼續包括——我們不斷推出更多的特許經營權。

  • YPB just had its first anniversary, which is our active brand that came out of feedback directly from our consumer, what they wanted from us. And now we have a men's business going. So third consecutive quarter of men's business, some exciting things in there, for example, our pants business, right?

    YPB 剛剛成立一周年,這是我們活躍的品牌,直接來自我們消費者的反饋,他們希望從我們這裡得到什麼。現在我們有男裝業務。男裝業務連續第三個季度,有些令人興奮的事情,例如我們的褲子業務,對嗎?

  • We've diversified. It's not just a denim business, it's a non-denim business. The consumer for Abercrombie has many different wearing occasions. And now that many of them are back to the office, they're coming to Abercrombie to help them -- help service them for that need as well. So lots of exciting things and thrilled about the momentum that we're seeing.

    我們多元化了。這不僅僅是牛仔佈業務,還是非牛仔佈業務。 Abercrombie 的消費者有許多不同的穿著場合。現在他們中的許多人都回到了辦公室,他們來到 Abercrombie 來幫助他們——也幫助他們滿足這種需求。這麼多激動人心的事情,我們看到的勢頭讓我們興奮不已。

  • Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • Just to add on at the end. As you think about Abercrombie business, you mentioned the size was actually a little bigger than the Hollister business here in Q1. As we think about the future of Abercrombie, that gets us really excited, the addressable market now that we've aged up with this consumer, you think about post-collegiate up to 40s and beyond, that is a very large addressable market versus a teen space where we've operated in the past with that brand.

    最後補充一下。當您考慮 Abercrombie 業務時,您提到第一季度的規模實際上比這裡的 Hollister 業務大一點。當我們思考 Abercrombie 的未來時,這讓我們非常興奮,現在我們已經和這個消費者一起變老了,你會想到 40 多歲及以上的大學後,這是一個非常大的潛在市場,而不是我們過去使用該品牌經營的青少年空間。

  • So really excited about the unlock there. Like Fran said, we have both genders working right now, huge market, and the fashion is working. Our team is out there leading fashion trends, and that's exciting. So our goal is to keep that momentum going. As we talked about earlier, we can continue to chase and that gives us a great ability to keep it up.

    對那裡的解鎖感到非常興奮。就像弗蘭說的,我們現在有兩種性別都在工作,巨大的市場,時尚正在發揮作用。我們的團隊引領時尚潮流,這令人興奮。所以我們的目標是保持這種勢頭。正如我們之前談到的,我們可以繼續追逐,這給了我們保持領先的強大能力。

  • Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

    Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

  • That's great. Very helpful. And then just to double click on that last comment, Scott, on your ability to chase and inventory positioning. I think you said that inventory is likely to be in line with last year by the end of the first quarter and also down in the second and third.

    那太棒了。很有幫助。然後雙擊最後一條評論,斯科特,關於你追逐和庫存定位的能力。我想你說到第一季度末庫存可能與去年持平,第二和第三季度也可能下降。

  • And as you think about inventory being in line, is that on a nominal basis. So therefore, you're actually likely to still be down on a unit basis, which I think also -- and you've proven your ability to run a little bit more efficiently on leaner inventory. So just curious if I'm correct in that, and any thoughts there?

    當你考慮庫存時,庫存是名義上的。因此,你實際上可能仍然會以單位為基礎下降,我也認為這一點——而且你已經證明了你有能力在精簡庫存的情況下更有效地運行。所以很好奇我是否正確,有什麼想法嗎?

  • Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • Yes, I'll just clean that up a little bit. So we were down 20% here in Q1. Our expectation is that we'll run down in Q2 and Q3. And by the time we get to the year-end, we'll be more in line with the end of 2022.

    是的,我會稍微清理一下。所以我們在第一季度下降了 20%。我們的預期是我們將在第二季度和第三季度出現下滑。到年底時,我們將與 2022 年底更加一致。

  • If you remember, last year, we are obviously front-loaded there in Q1, Q2 and Q3, and then we really worked that down through holiday. So -- we exited the year with inventory in a good place. So going forward, 3 quarters out, we're thinking we'll kind of be in line with the end of 2022, but we'll be able to run a much leaner business as we come through the year without having the front load like last year.

    如果你還記得,去年,我們顯然在第一季度、第二季度和第三季度在那裡提前加載,然後我們真的在整個假期都把它壓下來了。所以 - 我們以良好的庫存結束了這一年。所以展望未來,3 個季度後,我們認為我們會在某種程度上與 2022 年底保持一致,但我們將能夠在這一年中經營更精簡的業務,而無需像去年。

  • Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

    Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst

  • And that's on a nominal basis?

    這是名義上的?

  • Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • Yes. Nominal basis. Yes, reported inventory.

    是的。名義基礎。是的,報告庫存。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Marni Shapiro with the Retail Tracker.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Marni Shapiro 的 Retail Tracker 系列。

  • Marni Shapiro - Co-Founder

    Marni Shapiro - Co-Founder

  • Congratulations. The stores have looked fantastic. Fran, I wanted to dig in a little bit to what you just said in describing Abercrombie and being able to build upon certain pillars and launch things like Best Dressed Guests. Over time, I guess, what should that look like at Hollister?

    恭喜。這些商店看起來棒極了。 Fran,我想深入了解一下你剛才在描述 Abercrombie 時所說的內容,以及能夠在某些支柱上構建並推出最佳著裝嘉賓等內容。隨著時間的推移,我想,Hollister 會是什麼樣子?

  • Because it seems like this has been a really strategic and very successful path at Abercrombie. And other than denim, which is probably the core I'm assuming at Hollister, what would this look like at Hollister as you guys are looking to improve that brand as well?

    因為這似乎是 Abercrombie 的一條真正具有戰略意義且非常成功的道路。除了牛仔布,這可能是我在 Hollister 假設的核心,這在 Hollister 會是什麼樣子,因為你們也在尋求改善該品牌?

  • Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

    Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

  • So we have -- it's a great point, Marni. So we work with playbooks here, and we're taking a lot of the learnings for our playbooks from Abercrombie and applying that currently to Hollister. Keeping in mind, we've done a lot of work here over the years to make sure that these 2 brands are very separate, and Hollister is focused on that teen consumer and Abercrombie is focused on that millennial consumer.

    所以我們有 - 這是一個很好的觀點,Marni。所以我們在這裡使用劇本,我們正在從 Abercrombie 那裡學到很多關於劇本的知識,並將其應用到 Hollister。請記住,多年來我們在這裡做了很多工作,以確保這兩個品牌非常獨立,Hollister 專注於青少年消費者,Abercrombie 專注於千禧一代消費者。

  • With that said, as you well know, there's a lot of trends that do overlap and you have to make sure that you interpret them for the appropriate customer. So what we've learned in Hollister over the past year is that he and she, they're evolving as well, and they're evolving from denim. Denim is important. It remains important.

    話雖如此,正如您所知,有很多趨勢確實存在重疊,您必須確保為合適的客戶解讀它們。因此,過去一年我們在 Hollister 身上學到的是,他和她也在不斷進化,而且是從牛仔布進化而來。牛仔布很重要。它仍然很重要。

  • There's some exciting things happening in denim, which is -- it's getting a little bit more cleaned up and the wider legs are still important and the high rises but -- sorry, I lost my change of thought there for a second. But -- so on a journey, but what we've learned and what we're seeing from the consumer is that the dresses are working, the non-denim bottoms are working.

    牛仔布發生了一些令人興奮的事情,那就是——它變得更乾淨了,更寬的腿仍然很重要,高層建築——抱歉,我暫時失去了想法。但是——所以在旅途中,但我們從消費者那裡學到的和我們看到的是裙子很管用,非牛仔布下裝很管用。

  • So they too are pivoting and how they're dressing and the different occasions that they have. We've seen some green shoots in our assortments, and it's really giving us confidence as we head into back-to-school, which is when the team really feels like the assortments have evolved considerably from last year. So I'm looking forward to it.

    所以他們也在改變自己的著裝方式以及他們所處的不同場合。我們已經在我們的分類中看到了一些萌芽,這真的給了我們信心,因為我們進入了返校,那時團隊真的覺得分類比去年有了很大的發展。所以我很期待。

  • Marni Shapiro - Co-Founder

    Marni Shapiro - Co-Founder

  • Yes. Obviously, it's much more promotional out there. Historically, back-to-school is a promotional time of year. Honestly, the whole back half of the year seems promotional at this point. Have you guys been able to really focus on balancing -- maintaining -- I don't want to say full price, but the perception of full price, but being able to promote to grab the customer for the back half of the year and keep the margin still improving?

    是的。顯然,那裡的促銷活動要多得多。從歷史上看,返校是一年中的促銷時間。老實說,在這一點上,整個後半年似乎都在促銷。你們真的能夠專注於平衡——維持——我不想說全價,而是全價的感知,而是能夠在下半年通過促銷來吸引客戶並保持利潤率還在提高嗎?

  • Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

    Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

  • Yes. I mean if you look at what we did for the first quarter, Marni, there's a couple of key points to it. So primarily managing our inventory, right? I mean that's a key component to making sure that we can manage our promotions. But there's just a lot more to it.

    是的。我的意思是,如果你看看我們第一季度的表現,Marni,有幾個關鍵點。所以主要是管理我們的庫存,對吧?我的意思是,這是確保我們能夠管理促銷活動的關鍵組成部分。但還有更多。

  • We came into this year with double-digit growth in our AUR for both brands from pre-pandemic. I mean that was a big win for us. We tried for a long time, right, to drive those AURs, and we've made a lot of nice progress.

    從大流行前開始,我們兩個品牌的 AUR 在今年都實現了兩位數的增長。我的意思是這對我們來說是一場巨大的勝利。我們嘗試了很長時間,對吧,來推動這些 AUR,並且我們取得了很多不錯的進展。

  • And we set our goal this year on maintaining those as we went through 2023. And yet we beat them for Q1, and that was in both brands. So that's a testament to your point of managing these promotions as well as we did take some ticket prices in the back half of '22 and the consumer responded nicely to that. So we're confident and the outlook is to hold the AUR for the balance of the year, but excited about what we could deliver for the first quarter.

    我們今年的目標是在 2023 年保持這些目標。然而我們在第一季度擊敗了他們,這在兩個品牌中都是如此。因此,這證明了您管理這些促銷活動的觀點,而且我們確實在 22 世紀下半年採取了一些票價,消費者對此反應很好。因此,我們有信心並且前景是在今年餘下時間持有 AUR,但對我們可以在第一季度交付的成果感到興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Paul Lejuez with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。

  • Kelly Crago - VP

    Kelly Crago - VP

  • This is Kelly on for Paul. So the 2Q sales guidance, it looks like you're looking for an acceleration versus the first quarter, which is different than what we're hearing from a lot of other retailers and setting some consumer weakness out there.

    這是凱利替保羅。所以第二季度的銷售指導,看起來你正在尋找與第一季度相比的加速,這與我們從許多其他零售商那裡聽到的不同,並在那裡設置了一些消費者弱點。

  • So could you talk about what's driving that, maybe any color on the 2Q quarterly comp trends by banner and geography?

    那麼你能談談是什麼推動了這一點嗎,也許是按橫幅和地理位置劃分的第二季度季度趨勢的任何顏色?

  • Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • Kelly, yes, maybe a little different than we've heard from some, but not all. What we're seeing, Fran covered the brands well here in the last few minutes. Abercrombie, we assume that, that growth trends will continue as we go into second quarter. In Hollister, we're assuming it's going to make some sequential progress off of the Q2 or the Q1 trend of down 7%.

    凱利,是的,也許與我們從一些人那裡聽到的有所不同,但並非全部。我們所看到的是,Fran 在最後幾分鐘在這裡很好地介紹了這些品牌。 Abercrombie,我們假設,隨著我們進入第二季度,增長趨勢將繼續。在霍利斯特,我們假設它將在第二季度或第一季度下降 7% 的趨勢中取得一些連續進展。

  • So sitting here today, 25 days into the quarter. We have the confidence that we need to put that outlook out there for growth of up 4% to 6%. As you mentioned, it's a little bit better than what we saw in Q1. And -- the big test here at the end of the quarter is always back-to-school, and we'll see how that plays out. But sitting here today, that's our outlook, and we have the confidence today.

    所以今天坐在這裡,進入本季度 25 天。我們有信心,我們需要將這一前景放在那裡,以實現 4% 至 6% 的增長。正如你提到的,它比我們在第一季度看到的要好一點。而且——本季度末這裡的大考驗總是返校,我們將看看結果如何。但今天坐在這裡,這就是我們的前景,我們今天有信心。

  • Kelly Crago - VP

    Kelly Crago - VP

  • Great. And just wanted to dig in a little bit more on the gross margin. So the net freight and product costs tailwind was 400-and-change basis points in the first quarter. I was curious if you could talk about sort of the freight benefit versus product cost headwind in the second quarter and in the back half of the year?

    偉大的。只是想在毛利率上多挖一點。因此,第一季度的淨運費和產品成本順風為 400 個基點。我很好奇您能否談談第二季度和下半年的運費收益與產品成本逆風?

  • And just to confirm, that 250 basis point freight head -- or tailwind for the year, is that just the tailwind from freight? Or is that kind of what you're guiding total gross margin to for the year? I know there's some other moving parts there with FX and AUR. So if you could just provide a little bit more color to that, that would be great.

    只是為了確認,250 個基點的運費頭——或今年的順風,這只是貨運的順風嗎?還是您將今年的總毛利率指導為這種情況?我知道 FX 和 AUR 還有其他一些活動部件。因此,如果您可以為其提供更多顏色,那就太好了。

  • Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • Yes, the 250 basis points is the full year gross margin benefit that we're talking about, and that is net. So we're going to have benefits from freight that will trickle throughout the year, had a nice, nice pick up here in Q1, which I'll get to in a second.

    是的,250 個基點是我們正在談論的全年毛利率收益,而且是淨收益。因此,我們將從全年不斷增加的運費中受益,第一季度在這裡有一個很好的提貨,我稍後會談到。

  • And then the cotton costs, as we talked about last quarter, a little heavier hit to us here in the first half, and then those will start to moderate, but will be a hurt for the year. So the net for the year will be at 250 basis points. As we think about the cadencing throughout the year, Q1 was that quarter where we had the huge air carryover last year in Q1 of '22.

    然後,正如我們上個季度談到的那樣,棉花成本在上半年對我們造成了更大的打擊,然後這些成本將開始緩和,但對今年來說將是一個傷害。因此,今年的淨利率將為 250 個基點。當我們考慮全年的節奏時,第一季度是我們去年在 22 年第一季度有大量空氣結轉的那個季度。

  • So we now have that out of the base. So we saw a really nice pick up here in Q1, as you called out the 400-plus basis points. That will moderate as we go here into Q2, Q3 and Q4, and we will see that freight benefit continue each quarter, but we will see that cotton hurt to continue each quarter.

    所以我們現在把它從基地裡拿出來了。所以我們在第一季度看到了一個非常好的回升,因為你提到了 400 多個基點。隨著我們進入第二季度、第三季度和第四季度,這種情況將會緩和,我們將看到每個季度運費繼續受益,但我們將看到棉花每個季度繼續受到損害。

  • So -- like we said, up 50 basis points from our previous outlook of 200 basis points on the year, up to that 250 basis points. And just like where the trends are right now, we talked about the supply chain. Costs are coming down, lead times are improving, and that's good for all of us.

    所以 - 就像我們說的那樣,比我們之前對今年 200 個基點的預期高出 50 個基點,達到 250 個基點。就像現在的趨勢一樣,我們談到了供應鏈。成本正在下降,交貨時間正在縮短,這對我們所有人都有好處。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from the line of Janet Kloppenburg with JJK Research Associates.

    下一個問題來自 Janet Kloppenburg 與 JJK Research Associates 的合作。

  • Janet Joseph Kloppenburg - President

    Janet Joseph Kloppenburg - President

  • Congratulations on a great quarter, and congratulations to Scott. Nice to see. I wanted to ask a couple of questions because -- it looks like the EMEA region got a little bit worse in the first versus the fourth.

    祝賀一個偉大的季度,並祝賀斯科特。很高興見到。我想問幾個問題,因為 - 看起來 EMEA 地區在第一個和第四個中變得更糟了。

  • And yet Hollister's overall revenues improved from minus 9% to minus 7%. So it makes me think that maybe North America comps at Hollister were once again in the positive territory. I'd love it if you could talk about that. And for the EMEA region, what guidance assumes as we move through the rest of the year. And Fran, you touched on this a little bit, but I am hearing that denim trends are starting to improve. And I'm wondering if that could help Hollister's business accelerate globally as we look to the back half.

    然而,霍利斯特的總收入從負 9% 提高到負 7%。所以這讓我覺得,也許 Hollister 的北美 comps 再次處於積極的領域。如果你能談談這個我會很高興。對於 EMEA 地區,我們在今年剩餘時間裡的指導假設是什麼。 Fran,你稍微談到了這一點,但我聽說牛仔布趨勢開始好轉。而且我想知道這是否可以幫助 Hollister 的業務在我們展望後半部分時在全球範圍內加速發展。

  • Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • Jan, I'll kick it off. First off, I was thinking about the international business, a little different. We have kind of spread this quarter versus normal where our total sales change of down 12% was very different than our comp of flat.

    簡,我會開始的。首先,我在考慮國際業務,有點不同。我們本季度與正常情況有所不同,我們的總銷售額下降了 12%,這與我們的持平情況非常不同。

  • And if we break apart the regions, thinking about EMEA, we have a small wholesale business in EMEA. You've seen all the headlines on wholesale. We're not immune to that. So we've taken a little bit of a hit on our wholesale business in EMEA. But when you look at the comps in EMEA of the down 4%, we're calling that relatively stable. The story hasn't changed much for us in EMEA.

    如果我們把地區分開,考慮 EMEA,我們在 EMEA 有一個小的批發業務。你已經看到了所有關於批發的頭條新聞。我們不能倖免。因此,我們在 EMEA 的批發業務受到了一些打擊。但是,當您查看 EMEA 下降 4% 的 comps 時,我們稱其相對穩定。在歐洲、中東和非洲,我們的故事並沒有太大改變。

  • The U.K. remains our strongest country, Middle East is also strong. As I shift over to APAC, our comps were 22%, saw a nice reopening in China and Hong Kong and excited to see how that plays out for the rest of the year. So our punchline on international right now is stable.

    英國仍然是我們最強大的國家,中東也很強大。當我轉移到亞太地區時,我們的收入為 22%,在中國和香港看到了很好的重新開放,我很高興看到今年餘下時間的結果如何。所以我們現在在國際上的重點是穩定的。

  • We know we have work to do there, but we're optimistic as we go to the back half, seeing nice traffic into our stores and -- all the work that we're doing in Abercrombie that's starting to filter through the international regions as well as the assortment changes in Hollister. Those should be global helpers. Fran?

    我們知道我們在那裡有工作要做,但我們很樂觀,因為我們進入後半部分,看到進入我們商店的人流量很大,而且我們在 Abercrombie 所做的所有工作都開始滲透到國際地區,因為以及 Hollister 的分類變化。那些應該是全局助手。弗蘭?

  • Janet Joseph Kloppenburg - President

    Janet Joseph Kloppenburg - President

  • And Hollister North America, Hollister North America?

    還有 Hollister North America,Hollister North America?

  • Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • Yes. Hollister North America continues to outperform the international business. Obviously, Q1 was the toughest comp that we'll have this year because kind of lapping the falloff in Q2 last year.

    是的。 Hollister North America 的表現繼續優於國際業務。顯然,Q1 是我們今年將擁有的最艱難的比賽,因為去年 Q2 的跌勢有所回落。

  • So as Fran mentioned, we're pleased with the Hollister performance in Q1, specifically in North America, met our expectations coming into the quarter. And we're all very excited to come up on the lapping of the business falloff in the next few weeks here. So lots to learn.

    正如 Fran 提到的那樣,我們對 Hollister 在第一季度的表現感到滿意,特別是在北美,達到了我們對本季度的預期。我們都很高興能在接下來的幾週內討論業務下滑的問題。有很多東西要學。

  • Janet Joseph Kloppenburg - President

    Janet Joseph Kloppenburg - President

  • Go ahead. And I'm sorry.

    前進。對不起。

  • Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

    Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

  • No worries. So denim is an important part of our business, and that is true in both brands and both genders. It has been exciting though to see the consumer diversify somewhat out of denim.

    不用擔心。所以牛仔布是我們業務的重要組成部分,這對品牌和性別都是如此。看到消費者從牛仔布中脫穎而出,令人興奮。

  • And this non-denim bottom trend that we're seeing is really terrific. And that's also, interestingly, in all brands and all genders. And it goes beyond just the cargo. We have a terrific pant in the women's business that we've been able to make a real franchise out of.

    我們看到的這種非牛仔布下裝趨勢真的很棒。有趣的是,這也適用於所有品牌和所有性別。它不僅僅是貨物。我們在女性業務方面擁有出色的實力,我們已經能夠從中獲得真正的特許經營權。

  • I'm sure you've seen it all over TikTok phones yet. And there are things happening in denim. I mean we're seeing denim get cleaned up. That's an important trend. When there's something new happening in denim, that's always a good sign. As also the wider legs continue to be important as well. So we're looking forward to back-to-school.

    我相信你已經在 TikTok 手機上看到過它了。牛仔布領域正在發生一些事情。我的意思是我們看到牛仔布得到清理。這是一個重要的趨勢。當牛仔佈出現新鮮事物時,這總是一個好兆頭。更寬的腿也同樣重要。所以我們很期待返校。

  • Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • And thinking about the denim trends, by brand, the trend really hasn't changed. It's a little weaker in Hollister and much better in Abercrombie. I mean as Fran just mentioned, the cleaner -- cleaned up denim, with Abercrombie, you can wear denim to work.

    考慮到牛仔趨勢,就品牌而言,趨勢確實沒有改變。它在 Hollister 中稍弱,在 Abercrombie 中好得多。我的意思是,正如 Fran 剛才提到的那樣,清潔工——清潔牛仔布,有了 Abercrombie,你可以穿牛仔布去上班。

  • And so we're seeing those continued trends. But at this point, we're really looking at it, denim plus pants and the bottoms business has been good across brands.

    因此,我們看到了這些持續的趨勢。但在這一點上,我們真的在關注它,牛仔加褲子和下裝業務在各個品牌中都表現良好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Mauricio Serna with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Mauricio Serna 與瑞銀的合作。

  • Mauricio Serna Vega - Analyst

    Mauricio Serna Vega - Analyst

  • Congratulations on the results as well. Maybe if you could talk a little bit more about the fashion trends on Abercrombie across the different consumer you target, meaning the ages that you target?

    也祝賀結果。也許你可以多談談 Abercrombie 上針對不同消費者的時尚趨勢,也就是你的目標年齡段?

  • And then on the AUR, did you see AUR growth across both brands? Or how does that look? And lastly, on the operating expense, what are you thinking about the growth trajectory of year-over-year over the next few quarters, given you're doing store openings, but you're probably going to see also some moderation on inflation?

    然後在 AUR 上,您是否看到兩個品牌的 AUR 都在增長?或者看起來怎麼樣?最後,關於運營費用,考慮到您正在開店,您如何看待未來幾個季度的同比增長軌跡,但您可能還會看到通貨膨脹有所緩和?

  • Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

    Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

  • Sure. So let's start with the first part of your question, Mauricio. So as far as Abercrombie goes, I mean the exciting thing about the brand is it's really become a lifestyle brand.

    當然。那麼,讓我們從問題的第一部分開始,Mauricio。所以就 Abercrombie 而言,我的意思是這個品牌令人興奮的事情是它真的成為了一個生活方式品牌。

  • And we're seeing lots of different trends happening, as I've mentioned, I mean I could just say dresses, dresses, dresses all day long. We have become a destination for the consumer looking for dresses, whether that's special occasions, whether it's where to work, whether that's going out, and it's really been a big win for us.

    正如我所提到的,我們看到很多不同的趨勢正在發生,我的意思是我可以整天說裙子、裙子、裙子。我們已經成為消費者尋找禮服的目的地,無論是特殊場合,無論是工作地點,還是外出,這對我們來說真的是一個巨大的勝利。

  • We've also diversified our bottoms. So denim is a very important category for us, but so are non-denim bottoms. Our pant business, our women pant business, our cargo business, again, and that's in men's and in women's. So the trends that we're seeing is that this customer is evolving, that their lifestyle has changed quite a bit post pandemic, and they're back to the office, they're celebrating with their friends, they're going out.

    我們也多樣化了我們的底部。所以牛仔布對我們來說是一個非常重要的類別,但非牛仔布下裝也是如此。我們的褲子業務,我們的女褲業務,我們的貨運業務,還有男裝和女裝。因此,我們看到的趨勢是,這個客戶在不斷發展,他們的生活方式在大流行後發生了很大變化,他們回到辦公室,與朋友一起慶祝,他們外出。

  • And we're there and servicing them for all of those occasions. Regarding AUR, that's a really exciting story for us because as we came out of the pandemic, we talked a bit about the fact that our AUR grew double digits in both brands heading into 2023. And our goal was to maintain that. And in fact, we did beat that in both brands coming out of the first quarter. Third?

    我們在那里為所有這些場合提供服務。關於 AUR,這對我們來說是一個非常令人興奮的故事,因為當我們走出大流行時,我們談到了一個事實,即到 2023 年,我們的 AUR 在兩個品牌中都增長了兩位數。我們的目標是保持這一點。事實上,我們確實在第一季度的兩個品牌中都擊敗了它。第三?

  • Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • Third piece on the operating expense. So I'd say relatively consistent story with what we've seen in Q1, we'll continue to see the rest of the year.

    第三部分關於運營費用。所以我會說與我們在第一季度看到的情況相對一致的故事,我們將在今年餘下的時間裡繼續看到。

  • On operating expense, we are making key investments. We talked about an ERP program that we put into place, multiyear. So we're seeing some higher expenses due to the digital and technology investments that we're making. On top of that, there is the inflation. I would say it's not yet abating in our P&L.

    在運營費用方面,我們正在進行關鍵投資。我們談到了我們實施多年的 ERP 計劃。因此,由於我們正在進行的數字和技術投資,我們看到了一些更高的費用。除此之外,還有通貨膨脹。我會說它在我們的損益表中還沒有減弱。

  • The inflation, I'll call it, up everything, labor through systems, tools, everything that we're buying, that's flowing through the P&L. We are able to offset that. We do have some efficiency plays year-over-year, specifically in our supply chain area.

    通貨膨脹,我稱之為通貨膨脹,通過系統、工具、我們購買的所有東西,通過損益表流動的一切。我們能夠抵消這一點。我們確實有一些年復一年的效率提升,特別是在我們的供應鏈領域。

  • But net-net, we're still calling for some moderate deleverage on the year due to really the investments that we're making and then that inflation.

    但是,由於我們正在進行的投資以及隨後的通貨膨脹,我們仍然呼籲在今年進行適度的去槓桿化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Alex Straton with Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自 Alex Straton 與摩根士丹利的對話。

  • Alexandra Ann Straton - Research Associate

    Alexandra Ann Straton - Research Associate

  • Great. Congrats on a super nice report. I really just have 2 to round it out here. It sounds like you're not seeing any pressure on going out or occasion categories despite what I think is a relatively hard comp. So any commentary on that would be helpful. And then second, on your ability to take ticket, it sounds like across the business. Can you just give us some insight into how you assess where that's possible and then gauge consumer sensitivity on it?

    偉大的。恭喜你獲得一份超級棒的報告。我真的只有 2 來解決這個問題。儘管我認為這是一個相對困難的比賽,但聽起來你沒有看到任何外出或場合類別的壓力。所以對此的任何評論都會有所幫助。其次,關於你的取票能力,這聽起來像是整個行業。您能否給我們一些見解,了解您如何評估可能的情況,然後衡量消費者對此的敏感度?

  • Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

    Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

  • Alex, so on the first part of your question, we are not seeing any change in the consumers' behavior currently. Again, we're taking share, and we are becoming a destination for all those different occasions for her and for him and particularly in our dress business, which just continues to set records quarter after quarter.

    亞歷克斯,關於你問題的第一部分,我們目前沒有看到消費者行為有任何變化。再一次,我們正在分享,我們正在成為她和他所有這些不同場合的目的地,特別是在我們的服裝業務中,它只是繼續一個季度又一個季度地創下記錄。

  • Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

    Scott D. Lipesky - Executive VP, COO & CFO

  • Yes, I'll grab the ticket side. Yes. When we talk about tickets, so late -- back half of last year, we took tickets up in Abercrombie, and it wasn't a take-every ticket up because costs were going up. It's really those places where we felt like we could get a little bit more ticket.

    是的,我去搶票。是的。當我們談論門票時,已經很晚了 - 去年上半年,我們在阿伯克龍比(Abercrombie)購買了門票,這並不是因為成本上漲而將每張門票都拿走。確實是那些我們覺得可以多買一點票的地方。

  • And those are the areas where, over the years, we had deep promotions. Once we pulled all those promotions off and still saw the selling, we were able to prudently take tickets up last year in certain places. We don't have any aspirations to continue to take tickets up as we go through the year.

    多年來,我們在這些領域進行了深度促銷。一旦我們取消了所有這些促銷活動並且仍然看到銷售,我們去年就能夠謹慎地在某些地方購買門票。在我們度過這一年的過程中,我們沒有任何繼續購買門票的願望。

  • There's always some changes here and there, but we are happy to see that flow through here in Q1, and it just speaks to the power of the Abercrombie & Fitch brand and the momentum that we've seen.

    總會有一些變化,但我們很高興看到第一季度的變化,這恰恰說明了 Abercrombie & Fitch 品牌的力量和我們所看到的勢頭。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And at this time, I'd like to hand the conference back over to Fran Horowitz for closing remarks.

    此時,我想將會議交還給 Fran Horowitz 作閉幕詞。

  • Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

    Fran Horowitz - CEO & Director

  • I just want to thank everyone for joining us today, and we look forward to continuing to update you at the end of August.

    我只想感謝大家今天加入我們,我們期待在 8 月底繼續為您更新。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。每個人,祝你有美好的一天。