Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Abercrombie & Fitch Third Quarter of Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Call. This conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to hand the call over Kate Wagner. Please go ahead, ma'am.

美好的一天，歡迎來到 Abercrombie & Fitch 2022 財年第三季度財報電話會議。正在錄製此會議。在這個時候，我想把電話轉給凱特·瓦格納。請繼續，女士。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter 2022 earnings call. Joining me today on the call are Fran Horowitz, Chief Executive Officer; and Scott Lipesky, Chief Financial Officer. Earlier this morning, we issued our third quarter earnings release, which is available on our website at corporate.abercrombie.com under the Investors section. Also available on our website is an investor presentation.

謝謝你。早上好，歡迎來到我們的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有首席執行官 Fran Horowitz；和首席財務官 Scott Lipesky。今天上午早些時候，我們發布了第三季度收益報告，可在我們網站 corporate.abercrombie.com 的“投資者”部分獲取。我們的網站上還提供投資者介紹。

Please keep in mind that any forward-looking statements made on the call are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations and assumptions we mentioned today. A detailed discussion of these factors and uncertainties is contained in the company's reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

請記住，在電話會議上作出的任何前瞻性陳述均受 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款的約束。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異來自我們今天提到的期望和假設。公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告和文件中包含對這些因素和不確定性的詳細討論。

In addition, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures during the call. Additional details and reconciliations of GAAP to adjusted non-GAAP financial measures are included in the release and investor presentation issued earlier the morning.

此外，我們將在電話會議期間提及某些非 GAAP 財務指標。 GAAP 與調整後的非 GAAP 財務指標的更多細節和對賬包含在上午早些時候發布的新聞稿和投資者介紹中。

With that, I will turn the call over to Fran.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給弗蘭。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Before we dive in, I'd like to thank our global team, their ongoing resiliency and focus on executing to our long-term goals as we navigate a dynamic global macroeconomic environment. Against a challenging backdrop, our Q3 results beat our expectations on the top and bottom line with Abercrombie sales up 10% and Hollister showing sequential sales improvement and adjusted operating margin coming in 200 basis points higher than our expectations.

早上好，感謝您今天加入我們。在我們開始之前，我要感謝我們的全球團隊，感謝他們在我們駕馭充滿活力的全球宏觀經濟環境時的持續彈性和專注於執行我們的長期目標。在充滿挑戰的背景下，我們第三季度的業績超出了我們的預期，Abercrombie 的銷售額增長了 10%，Hollister 的銷售額環比有所改善，調整後的營業利潤率比我們的預期高出 200 個基點。

We're excited about our positioning going into the holiday season, continued momentum in Abercrombie and inventories healthy with the year-over-year change cut in half from our peak last quarter. I'm encouraged by the trajectory of our business, and I'm confident the steps we've taken throughout the year will put us in a position to win in Q4 and beyond.

我們對進入假日季節的定位、Abercrombie 的持續增長勢頭以及健康的庫存感到興奮，同比變化較上一季度的峰值減少了一半。我對我們的業務軌跡感到鼓舞，我相信我們全年採取的步驟將使我們能夠在第四季度及以後取得勝利。

On to our Q3 results. While our global consumer continues to see significant inflation across our day-to-day lives, we were pleased to see our business improve off the second quarter, delivering flat sales in 2021 on a constant currency basis. Throughout the quarter, we continued to execute against the key pillars outlined in our Investor Day, focused brand growth, an enterprise-wide digital evolution and operating with financial discipline. These pillars give us confidence in our approach to the holiday season, which we will enter with healthy inventory levels, momentum in our key merchandising initiatives and a consumer that is engaging with us across channels.

關於我們第三季度的結果。雖然我們的全球消費者在日常生活中繼續看到嚴重的通貨膨脹，但我們很高興看到我們的業務在第二季度有所改善，在固定匯率的基礎上在 2021 年實現了持平。在整個季度中，我們繼續執行投資者日概述的關鍵支柱、專注於品牌增長、企業範圍內的數字化發展以及遵守財務紀律。這些支柱使我們對我們迎接假期的方式充滿信心，我們將以健康的庫存水平、我們的主要銷售計劃的勢頭以及跨渠道與我們互動的消費者進入假期。

Starting with focused brand growth. We saw sales trends improve across brands compared to Q2. However, Abercrombie continued to significantly outperform Hollister as the bifurcation of the sales and gross margin performance continued in the third quarter. For the third quarter, total company net sales declined 3% to 2021. And as I mentioned, we were flat on a constant currency basis. For Abercrombie brands, which includes kids, we saw third quarter net sales grew 10% or 13% on a constant currency basis, led by ongoing strength in Abercrombie adults. Importantly, third quarter sales for Abercrombie Brands were up over 20% compared to the pre-pandemic level of 2019, even as we have reduced store square footage by around 40%.

從專注的品牌增長開始。與第二季度相比，我們看到各品牌的銷售趨勢有所改善。然而，Abercrombie 的業績繼續顯著優於 Hollister，因為第三季度銷售額和毛利率表現繼續分化。第三季度，公司淨銷售額到 2021 年下降了 3%。正如我提到的，我們在固定匯率基礎上持平。對於包括兒童在內的 Abercrombie 品牌，我們看到第三季度淨銷售額按固定匯率計算增長了 10% 或 13%，這主要得益於 Abercrombie 成人品牌的持續增長。重要的是，與 2019 年大流行前的水平相比，Abercrombie Brands 第三季度的銷售額增長了 20% 以上，儘管我們已將商店面積減少了約 40%。

During the third quarter, we saw momentum continued Abercrombie adult as our customer transition to fall. Our assortments continue to evolve as we aspire to outfit our customer from the gym to the office to happy hour and beyond. We saw strong traffic across channels and AUR growth versus 2021, [leaving] adults to achieve its best Q3 sales since 2014 and its highest Q3 AUR since 2004. I am so proud to see this team continue to push boundaries on products and marketing and deliver some of the strongest sales results in our industry.

在第三季度，隨著我們的客戶轉向下降，我們看到勢頭持續。隨著我們渴望為我們的客戶提供從健身房到辦公室再到歡樂時光及其他時間的裝備，我們的產品種類不斷發展。與 2021 年相比，我們看到跨渠道的流量和 AUR 增長強勁，[離開] 成人實現了自 2014 年以來最好的第三季度銷售額和自 2004 年以來最高的第三季度 AUR。我很自豪地看到這個團隊繼續突破產品和營銷的界限並交付我們行業中一些最強勁的銷售業績。

On product, performance for our women's assortment remains very strong, delivering the highest Q3 sales level since 2007. The strength was driven by our best-ever Q3 sales in jeans, dresses and pants, as we continue to build our best dressed guest franchise and chase into key trends across bottoms categories. And after seeing some green shoots in men's in Q2, we saw growth in Q3 with strength across key top categories as well as outerwear. While the overall size of men's lags out of women's, we are optimistic about the growth opportunity ahead.

在產品方面，我們女裝系列的表現仍然非常強勁，實現了自 2007 年以來第三季度的最高銷售水平。我們的牛仔褲、連衣裙和褲子的第三季度銷量創下歷史新高，我們將繼續打造最佳著裝賓客特許經營權，以及追逐下裝類別的主要趨勢。在第二季度看到男裝出現一些萌芽後，我們看到第三季度在主要頂級類別和外衣領域都表現強勁。雖然男性的整體規模落後於女性，但我們對未來的增長機會持樂觀態度。

Across men's and women's, we are well positioned for holiday and are energized about the emerging spring trends we will deliver in early 2023. On the marketing front, our team continues to deliver. We were thrilled to be recognized with Performance Marketing Strategy of the Year award by LTK, which is the world's largest influencer and creator commerce platform. The Abercrombie brand was also named to the Brands that Matter list by a SaaS company for effectively leading with purpose, inspiring conversation and communicating our values to all the work -- through all of our work with the Trevor project, Steve Fund (inaudible) communities. Kudos to our team for their passion around these projects and for all their hard work in ensuring successful partnerships.

在男裝和女裝方面，我們為假期做好了充分準備，並對我們將在 2023 年初推出的新興春季趨勢充滿活力。在營銷方面，我們的團隊繼續努力。我們很高興獲得 LTK 頒發的年度績效營銷策略獎，LTK 是世界上最大的影響者和創作者商業平台。 Abercrombie 品牌還被一家 SaaS 公司命名為重要品牌列表，以有效地有目的地領導、激發對話並將我們的價值觀傳達給所有工作——通過我們與 Trevor 項目、Steve Fund（聽不清）社區的所有工作.感謝我們的團隊對這些項目的熱情以及他們為確保成功的合作夥伴關係所做的所有辛勤工作。

Moving on to Abercrombie kids. As discussed last quarter, kids had a soft start to the back-to-school season, but we saw sequential improvement as we move through the quarter. We saw the best performance in our super soft sweatshirt and sweatpants. Turning to Hollister, which includes Gilly Hicks and Social Tourist. We saw selling trends improved slightly compared to Q2. Third quarter sales declined 12% or 9% on a constant currency basis. Consistent with Q2, we check closely to apparel store traffic in the U.S. but we saw lower conversion basket size compared to 2021 as we lap the lingering effects of stimulus last year and our customer deals with significant inflation this year.

轉到 Abercrombie kids。正如上個季度所討論的那樣，孩子們在返校季開局不佳，但隨著本季度的推進，我們看到了連續的改善。我們在超柔軟運動衫和運動褲中看到了最佳性能。轉向 Hollister，其中包括 Gilly Hicks 和 Social Tourist。與第二季度相比，我們看到銷售趨勢略有改善。第三季度銷售額下降 12% 或按固定匯率計算下降 9%。與第二季度一致，我們密切關注美國服裝店的客流量，但我們發現與 2021 年相比，轉化籃子規模較小，因為我們考慮了去年刺激措施的揮之不去的影響，而且我們的客戶今年應對嚴重的通貨膨脹。

As we work through the remaining back-to-school period into September and October, we continue to see our customers shift spend towards top and out of bottoms as compared to 2021. We are pleased to see stronger performance in higher fashion special occasion items like women's dresses and men's woven shirts. We're looking at these categories as leading indicators of our ability to improve conversion and have chased into related categories in the past few months. We are seeing nice performance in our women's tops business and will work to spread the success to other categories.

在 9 月和 10 月剩餘的返校期期間，我們繼續看到與 2021 年相比，我們的客戶將支出轉移到頂部和底部。我們很高興看到更高級的時尚特殊場合商品的表現更強勁，例如女士連衣裙和男士梭織襯衫。我們將這些類別視為我們提高轉化率能力的領先指標，並在過去幾個月中追逐了相關類別。我們在女裝業務中取得了不錯的成績，並將努力將成功推廣到其他類別。

Building out in Hollister, while a key apparel space has seen softness in the back-to-school season, we continue to look inward at opportunities to improve the business. From an organizational perspective, towards the end of the second quarter, we made several key personnel moves at the senior levels of our Hollister merchandising team.

在霍利斯特擴建，雖然一個重要的服裝領域在開學季出現疲軟，但我們繼續向內尋找改善業務的機會。從組織的角度來看，在第二季度末，我們對 Hollister 採購團隊的高層進行了幾次關鍵人事變動。

We have also shifted ownership of Hollister marketing to Carey Krug, who has been our Head of Abercrombie marketing for the past 4 years where she has built a great team and is instrumental in driving the amazing A&F turnaround. Carey has moved into a new role as Chief Marketing Officer and is now responsible for marketing strategy and creative across all brands. We look forward to seeing Carey building the work our Hollister team has done over the past few years.

我們還將 Hollister 營銷的所有權轉移給了 Carey Krug，她在過去 4 年中一直擔任我們的 Abercrombie 營銷主管，她建立了一支優秀的團隊，並在推動 A&F 實現驚人的轉變方面發揮了重要作用。 Carey 已擔任首席營銷官的新職位，現在負責所有品牌的營銷策略和創意。我們期待看到 Carey 繼續推進我們的 Hollister 團隊在過去幾年中所做的工作。

From an operational perspective, we are continuing with the inventory actions discussed, which includes adjusting forward receipt plans in terms of total level and by category. With these adjustments, we are determined to improve Hollister's performance in the quarters to come.

從運營的角度來看，我們正在繼續討論的庫存行動，其中包括根據總水平和類別調整遠期收貨計劃。通過這些調整，我們決心在未來幾個季度提高 Hollister 的業績。

At Gilly Hicks, as we continue to build awareness around the active lifestyle brand, we took a big step forward in opening additional freestanding stores. As of today, we have 14 freestanding Gilly stores with 11 in the U.S. and 3 in EMEA. The team and I are excited to bring our updated positioning and product offering to our global customer as we continue to test and learn.

在 Gilly Hicks，隨著我們繼續圍繞積極的生活方式品牌建立知名度，我們向前邁出了一大步，開設了更多的獨立商店。截至今天，我們擁有 14 家獨立的 Gilly 商店，其中 11 家在美國，3 家在歐洲、中東和非洲。在我們繼續測試和學習的同時，我和我的團隊很高興能為我們的全球客戶帶來我們更新的定位和產品。

Outside of Gilly, we continue to support our brand growth principle with new store openings across our brands. We opened 19 stores in the quarter and continued to track towards opening around 60 for the full year, which will make us a net store opener for the first time in more than a decade. It's been great to see our brands deliver the updated experience in new centers as well as reenter key locations we exited over the past few years. For the year, we expect to open 18 Abercrombie adults, 24 Hollister's, 15 Gilly Hicks and 3 kids stores.

在 Gilly 之外，我們繼續通過在我們的品牌中開設新店來支持我們的品牌增長原則。我們在本季度開設了 19 家門店，並繼續朝著全年開設 60 家左右的目標邁進，這將使我們十多年來首次成為淨開店商。很高興看到我們的品牌在新中心提供更新的體驗，並重新進入我們在過去幾年退出的關鍵地點。今年，我們預計將開設 18 家 Abercrombie 成人商店、24 家 Hollister's、15 家 Gilly Hicks 和 3 家兒童商店。

For Abercrombie adult, our customer has responded well to the new store concept near last quarter that features elevated fixtures and furnishings. Styled space is dedicated to key merchandising categories and updated fitting rooms with customizable lighting. Financially, our new Abercrombie stores are delivering 60% higher sales per square foot compared to the average Abercrombie adult store.

對於 Abercrombie adult，我們的客戶對上個季度附近採用高架固定裝置和家具的新店概念反應良好。風格化的空間專用於主要商品類別和帶有可定制照明的更新試衣間。在財務上，與 Abercrombie 成人商店的平均水平相比，我們新的 Abercrombie 商店每平方英尺的銷售額高出 60%。

For Hollister, we are excited to start rolling out our Revolve store concept this quarter. The new format creates an optimistic and welcoming environment that is omni-focused and complements our digital shopping experience. The open concept interior is designed to be agile and adaptable, allowing for merchandising flexibility. Across all brands, we remain disciplined in our real estate approach with the new stores checking each acquired box: The right size, the right location and the right economics.

對於 Hollister，我們很高興在本季度開始推出我們的 Revolve 商店概念。新格式創造了一個樂觀和熱情的環境，全方位關注並補充了我們的數字購物體驗。開放式概念內飾設計靈活且適應性強，可實現商品銷售的靈活性。在所有品牌中，我們在我們的房地產方法中保持紀律，新店檢查每個收購的盒子：合適的尺寸、合適的位置和合適的經濟性。

Shifting to inventory. The year-over-year inventory trend is playing out as planned with inventory growth moderating in Q3 after a peak in Q2. We ended the quarter with inventory up 36% to 2021 as we made good progress selling through summer and back-to-school inventory at Hollister. Consistent with last quarter, 92% of our inventory was current, defined as fall and holiday product, new goods that haven't been set for longer-life items. As we move through Q4, we expect year-over-year inventory growth to moderate further, and we are planning to be relatively flat to 2021 by year-end as we fully anniversary the late receipts we experienced last year.

轉移到庫存。同比庫存趨勢正在按計劃進行，庫存增長在第二季度達到頂峰後在第三季度放緩。由於我們在 Hollister 的夏季和返校庫存銷售方面取得了良好進展，我們在本季度末的庫存增長了 36% 至 2021 年。與上一季度一致，我們 92% 的庫存是最新的，定義為秋季和假日產品，即未設置為使用壽命更長的新商品。隨著我們進入第 4 季度，我們預計庫存同比增長將進一步放緩，並且我們計劃在年底前相對持平到 2021 年，因為我們已經過了去年延遲收貨的周年紀念日。

Turning to our second strategic principle, enterprise-wide digital revolution. During the quarter, we delivered share2Pay, a new way for Hollister customers to pay on the mobile app. Share2Pay was completely developed in-house, and I'm so proud of our internal team many of whom we've hired over the past 18 months as we add talent to accelerate our digital revolution.

轉向我們的第二個戰略原則，即企業範圍的數字革命。本季度，我們推出了 share2Pay，這是 Hollister 客戶在移動應用程序上支付的一種新方式。 Share2Pay 完全是內部開發的，我為我們的內部團隊感到驕傲，他們中的許多人是我們在過去 18 個月中僱傭的，因為我們增加了人才來加速我們的數字革命。

This first-of-its-kind payment solution is based on the need we saw among our team customer to eliminate a barrier, a key barrier to conversion. The feature allows our Hollister customer to easily share their digital shopping bag with their parent, for example, to complete the purchase as many don't have access to credit cards to transact digitally. The early response has been positive as share2Pay transactions showing higher conversion and basket size than the average. We'll continue to get feedback and evolve this technology with the goal of finding more use cases beyond Hollister.

這種首創的支付解決方案是基於我們在團隊客戶中看到的消除障礙的需求，這是轉換的關鍵障礙。該功能使我們的 Hollister 客戶可以輕鬆地與他們的父母共享他們的數字購物袋，例如，完成購買，因為許多人無法使用信用卡進行數字交易。早期的反應是積極的，因為 share2Pay 交易顯示出比平均水平更高的轉化率和購物籃規模。我們將繼續收集反饋並改進這項技術，目標是在 Hollister 之外找到更多用例。

This feature is one example of the work our teams are doing to support our digital evolution, which is necessary to grow our digital business off a 2021 base of roughly $1.7 billion. In addition to rolling out customer-facing technology, we also made progress on multiyear technology modernization efforts in areas like merchandising and data, which will enable us to be smarter and faster in the future. A huge thanks to our team, and I can't wait to see what's next.

此功能是我們的團隊為支持我們的數字化發展所做的工作的一個例子，這對於我們的數字業務在 2021 年增長約 17 億美元的基礎上是必要的。除了推出面向客戶的技術外，我們還在營銷和數據等領域進行了多年的技術現代化努力，這將使我們在未來變得更聰明、更快捷。非常感謝我們的團隊，我迫不及待地想看看接下來會發生什麼。

For our third strategic principle, operating with financial discipline, we are focused on managing controllable expenses in the third quarter. We currently manage headcount and adjusted marketing to better match demand patterns. As discussed last quarter, we reduced inventory buys for holiday and go forward to better align with sales trends and to ensure all brands are in a position to chase receipts in strong performing categories.

對於我們的第三個戰略原則，即遵守財務紀律，我們專注於管理第三季度的可控費用。我們目前管理員工人數並調整營銷以更好地匹配需求模式。正如上個季度所討論的那樣，我們減少了假期的庫存購買，並繼續前進以更好地適應銷售趨勢並確保所有品牌都能夠在表現強勁的類別中追逐收入。

Despite the challenging macro backdrop, we remain cautiously optimistic as the holiday season ramps up in a big way this weekend. Quarter-to-date, sales are running consistent with Q3 levels. Across brands, I am pleased with our assortments, and we've seen good early reads in cold weather categories. Also much different than last year, we have the inventory on hand for our customers this year due to our efforts to deliver inventory earlier than normal to mitigate potential supply chain delays.

儘管宏觀背景充滿挑戰，但隨著本週末假日季的大幅增加，我們仍持謹慎樂觀態度。本季度至今，銷售額與第三季度的水平一致。在各個品牌中，我對我們的分類感到滿意，並且我們已經看到寒冷天氣類別的良好早期閱讀。同樣與去年大不相同的是，由於我們努力比正常情況更早地交付庫存以減少潛在的供應鏈延遲，因此我們今年為客戶準備了庫存。

While our teams are working to deliver a great holiday, we also remain laser-focused on the long term. As we move through Q4 and in 2023, we expect to continue to leverage our strong balance sheet to fund the multiyear strategic investments necessary to execute our Always Forward plan.

在我們的團隊努力提供一個美好的假期的同時，我們也始終專注於長期發展。隨著我們進入第四季度和 2023 年，我們預計將繼續利用我們強大的資產負債表來為執行我們的 Always Forward 計劃所需的多年戰略投資提供資金。

And with that, I'm going to turn it over to Scott to provide more details on the quarter and our updated outlook.

有了這個，我將把它交給斯科特，以提供有關本季度和我們最新展望的更多細節。

Thanks, Fran, and good morning. For the third quarter, we delivered net sales of $880 million, down 3% to last year on a reported basis and flat on a constant currency basis. We saw foreign currency pressure accelerate in the quarter, driving an approximately 300 basis point adverse impact to sales. Sales results were above our expectations as we saw trends improve sequentially at both Abercrombie and Hollister.

謝謝，弗蘭，早上好。第三季度，我們實現了 8.8 億美元的淨銷售額，與去年同期相比下降 3%，按固定匯率計算持平。我們看到本季度外匯壓力加速，對銷售額產生了大約 300 個基點的不利影響。銷售業績超出了我們的預期，因為我們看到 Abercrombie 和 Hollister 的趨勢都在持續改善。

Net sales at Abercrombie, which includes kids, rose 10% compared to 2021 on a reported basis and 13% on a constant currency basis. This compares to reported and constant currency growth of 5% and 7%, respectively, for Abercrombie in Q2. Hollister, which includes Gilly Hicks and Social Tourist, declined 12% or 9% on a constant currency basis. This compares to reported and constant currency declines of 15% and 12%, respectively, for Hollister in Q2.

與 2021 年相比，Abercrombie 的淨銷售額（包括童裝）增長 10%，按固定匯率計算增長 13%。相比之下，Abercrombie 在第二季度的報告貨幣增長率和恆定貨幣增長率分別為 5% 和 7%。包括 Gilly Hicks 和 Social Tourist 在內的 Hollister 按固定匯率計算下降了 12% 或 9%。相比之下，Hollister 在第二季度的報告和持續匯率分別下降了 15% 和 12%。

By region, net sales increased 3% in the U.S. and declined 18% internationally or 8% on a constant currency basis. By region, EMEA was down 22% on a reported basis and 11% on a constant currency basis, and APAC was down 26% on a reported basis and 19% on a constant currency basis. In EMEA, our strongest performance was once again in the U.K. and Middle East, and we continue to see softness in other key countries in Western Europe. Obviously, there are many unknowns in Europe this winter. So our focus is on controlling our inventory and expenses and quickly reacting to the environment.

按地區劃分，美國淨銷售額增長 3%，國際銷售額下降 18%，按固定匯率計算下降 8%。按地區劃分，歐洲、中東和非洲地區按報告基礎下降 22%，按固定匯率計算下降 11%，亞太地區按報告基礎下降 26%，按固定匯率計算下降 19%。在歐洲、中東和非洲，我們最強勁的表現再次出現在英國和中東，我們繼續看到西歐其他主要國家的疲軟。顯然，這個冬天的歐洲有很多未知數。因此，我們的重點是控制我們的庫存和費用，並對環境做出快速反應。

In China, our trend remained negative but improved significantly from Q2. Our gross profit rate was 59.2% compared to 63.7% last year. Key drivers of the year-over-year change were the adverse impact of exchange rates of 60 basis points and higher product costs of 370 basis points. On a constant currency basis, AUR was up slightly with Abercrombie higher than last year and Hollister lower than last year as we work through back-to-school inventory.

在中國，我們的趨勢仍然是負面的，但比第二季度有了顯著改善。我們的毛利率為 59.2%，而去年為 63.7%。同比變化的主要驅動因素是匯率上升 60 個基點和產品成本上升 370 個基點的不利影響。在固定匯率的基礎上，AUR 略有上漲，Abercrombie 高於去年，Hollister 低於去年，因為我們正在處理返校庫存。

On product costs, we are optimistic the recent pullback in freight and cotton prices will stick. We expect to see freight flip to a tailwind in Q4 as we anniversary elevated air rates and air usage due to Vietnam closures last year and start to see lower ocean rates materialize in cost of goods sold. For cotton, we will continue to see year-over-year cost pressure in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead, assuming current prices hold, we expect to see a benefit from lower cotton starting in the back half of 2023.

在產品成本方面，我們對近期運費和棉花價格的回落持樂觀態度。我們預計第四季度貨運將順風順水，因為我們週年紀念日由於去年越南關閉導致空運費和空運使用量增加，並且開始看到較低的海運費率在銷售商品成本中實現。對於棉花，我們將在第四季度繼續看到同比成本壓力。展望未來，假設當前價格保持不變，我們預計從 2023 年下半年開始棉花價格下跌將帶來好處。

Moving on to inventory. We ended the quarter with inventory up 36% to last year, 92% of which was current. During the quarter, we made good progress clearing through Hollister back-to-school inventory that was bought at a level higher than trends. Looking to Q4 and beyond, Hollister inventory receipts have been reduced to match the summer and back-to-school trends and to reflect [box] and hold inventory that will set this coming spring, and we continue to chase in key categories for Abercrombie. More recently, we have seen greater stability in the supply chain with transit times coming in better than our expectations. In total, we are targeting an inventory level relatively flat to last year by year-end.

繼續庫存。我們在本季度末的存貨比去年增加了 36%，其中 92% 是流動的。在本季度，我們通過以高於趨勢水平購買的 Hollister 返校庫存清算取得了良好進展。展望第四季度及以後，Hollister 的庫存收據已經減少，以配合夏季和返校趨勢，並反映 [box] 並持有即將到來的春季的庫存，我們將繼續追逐 Abercrombie 的關鍵類別。最近，我們看到供應鏈更加穩定，運輸時間比我們預期的要好。總的來說，我們的目標是到年底庫存水平與去年持平。

I'll now cover the rest of our Q3 results on an adjusted non-GAAP basis. We excluded $4 million and $7 million of pretax asset impairment charges for this year and last year, respectively. Q3 operating expense, excluding other operating income, was $501 million compared to $498 million last year. The increase was driven by inflation in higher digital fulfillment expense, mostly offset by lower marketing, incentive-based compensation and foreign currency.

我現在將在調整後的非 GAAP 基礎上介紹我們第三季度的其餘結果。我們分別排除了今年和去年的 400 萬美元和 700 萬美元的稅前資產減值費用。第三季度營業費用（不包括其他營業收入）為 5.01 億美元，而去年同期為 4.98 億美元。這一增長是由更高的數字履行費用引起的通貨膨脹推動的，但大部分被較低的營銷、基於激勵的薪酬和外匯所抵消。

Operating income was approximately $21 million compared to operating income of $79 million last year. Changes in foreign currency adversely impacted operating income by approximately $8 million. Net income per diluted share was $0.01 compared to net income per diluted share of $0.86 last year. Changes in foreign currency adversely impacted EPS by approximately $0.10.

營業收入約為 2100 萬美元，而去年的營業收入為 7900 萬美元。外匯變動對營業收入產生了大約 800 萬美元的不利影響。每股攤薄淨收入為 0.01 美元，而去年每股攤薄淨收入為 0.86 美元。外匯變動對每股收益產生了大約 0.10 美元的不利影響。

Moving on to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with cash of $257 million and liquidity of $617 million. We expect cash and liquidity to build nicely in Q4 as we sell through inventory during the holiday period. During the quarter, we repurchased 510,000 shares for approximately $8 million. At quarter end, we had 49 million shares outstanding, down around 20% from the start of 2021 with approximately $230 million remaining under our previously authorized share repurchase program. We also repurchased $8 million of senior secured notes at a slight discount to par value. We remain committed to putting excess cash to work, pending liquidity levels, market conditions and our ability to accelerate investments in the business.

轉到資產負債表。本季度結束時，我們的現金為 2.57 億美元，流動資金為 6.17 億美元。我們預計現金和流動性將在第四季度很好地建立，因為我們在假期期間通過庫存出售。本季度，我們以約 800 萬美元的價格回購了 510,000 股股票。截至季度末，我們有 4900 萬股流通股，比 2021 年初下降了約 20%，根據我們先前授權的股票回購計劃，剩餘約 2.3 億美元。我們還以略低於面值的價格回購了 800 萬美元的優先擔保票據。我們仍然致力於將過剩現金用於流動性水平、市場狀況和我們加速業務投資的能力。

Turning to investments, we expect fiscal 2022 CapEx of approximately $170 million, up slightly to our previous outlook as we accelerate certain technology investments. In total, we expect half of our capital spend to be for digital and technology and half for stores and maintenance. We continue to expect to be a net store opener this year with approximately 60 new stores globally with the majority in the U.S. We opened 31 stores through Q3 and the remaining 29 are set to open in Q4. We have approximately 220 leases up for renewal by year-end, and we continue to expect to close approximately 30 stores pending the negotiations with our landlord partners.

談到投資，我們預計 2022 財年的資本支出約為 1.7 億美元，隨著我們加速某些技術投資，略高於我們之前的預期。總的來說，我們預計一半的資本支出用於數字和技術，另一半用於商店和維護。我們繼續預計今年將成為淨開店者，全球約有 60 家新店，其中大部分在美國。我們在第三季度開設了 31 家門店，其餘 29 家將在第四季度開業。到年底，我們有大約 220 份租約需要續約，我們繼續預計將關閉大約 30 家商店，等待與房東合作夥伴的談判。

As we look to the remainder of the year, we assume inflation-related pressure on consumer demand continues and that our brand and regional performance will be relatively consistent with Q3, with Abercrombie outperforming Hollister and U.S. outperforming international. Our updated outlook replaces all previous full year guidance. For the full year, we are planning as follows: net sales will be down 2% to 3% to 2021 level of approximately $3.7 billion, an increase to our previous outlook of down mid-single digits. Embedded in this outlook is an estimated adverse impact of approximately 250 basis points from foreign currency, slightly worse than our prior expectation. Operating margin in the range of 2% to 3%, with the lower end up slightly from our previous range of 1% to 3%, reflecting better-than-expected results in Q3. We continue to expect a total inflationary impact around $250 million across product costs and operating costs compared to 2021.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們假設與通脹相關的消費者需求壓力持續存在，並且我們的品牌和區域表現將與第三季度相對一致，Abercrombie 的表現優於 Hollister，美國的表現優於國際。我們更新後的展望取代了之前所有的全年指引。對於全年，我們計劃如下：淨銷售額將下降 2% 至 3%，至 2021 年的水平約為 37 億美元，這比我們之前的中個位數下降預期有所增加。這一展望中包含了約 250 個基點的外匯不利影響，略低於我們之前的預期。營業利潤率在 2% 到 3% 之間，下限略高於我們之前 1% 到 3% 的範圍，反映出第三季度的業績好於預期。與 2021 年相比，我們繼續預計產品成本和運營成本的總通貨膨脹影響約為 2.5 億美元。

For the fourth quarter, we are planning as follows: Net sales will be down 2% to 4% to 2021 level of approximately $1.19 billion, consistent with the Q3 trends. Embedded in this outlook is an estimated adverse impact of approximately 300 basis points from foreign currency. For operating margin, we expect a level between 5% and 7%, and an effective tax rate in the mid- to high 40s as the rate remains sensitive to earnings levels by geography.

對於第四季度，我們計劃如下：淨銷售額將下降 2% 至 4% 至 2021 年的水平，約為 11.9 億美元，與第三季度的趨勢一致。包含在該展望中的是來自外幣的約 300 個基點的估計不利影響。對於營業利潤率，我們預計水平在 5% 到 7% 之間，有效稅率在 40 年代中高水平，因為該稅率對按地域劃分的盈利水平仍然敏感。

As we manage through the holiday season, we are also keeping an eye on the long term. This year and next are [pivotal] years as we accelerate our digital revolution and evolve our omnichannel experience across brands. We are mindful of the macroeconomic environment and are managing expenses and inventory tightly with a goal to maximize cash flow to fund key investments. Looking to 2023, while we are closely monitoring consumer demand, we remain cautiously optimistic that we'll see significant relief on product costs and some stabilization of inflation across other key expense categories. We will learn a lot more in the months to come, and we'll discuss assumptions for 2023 on our Q4 earnings call.

在我們度過假期的同時，我們也在關注長期發展。今年和明年是 [關鍵] 年，因為我們會加速數字革命並發展跨品牌的全渠道體驗。我們關注宏觀經濟環境，並嚴格管理費用和庫存，目標是最大限度地增加現金流，為關鍵投資提供資金。展望 2023 年，在我們密切關註消費者需求的同時，我們仍然謹慎樂觀地認為，我們將看到產品成本顯著下降，其他主要支出類別的通脹將有所穩定。我們將在接下來的幾個月裡學到更多，我們將在第四季度財報電話會議上討論 2023 年的假設。

With that, operator, we are ready for questions.

有了這個，接線員，我們準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Dana Telsey from Telsey Advisory Group.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Telsey Advisory Group 的 Dana Telsey。

Nice to see the progress. Can you expand on the enhancements that you've been making to Hollister and how you expect the brand to unfold in progress go forward given the people changes that have occurred there?

很高興看到進展。您能否詳細說明您對 Hollister 所做的改進，以及鑑於那裡發生的人員變化，您期望該品牌如何不斷發展？

And then any comments on -- we've been hearing about October and into November, how your trends have been exiting the quarter and into the other -- into this current quarter? And then lastly, Scott, you mentioned about product cost opportunities. How do you see it with supply chain in the first half of '23 compared to the second half?

然後有什麼評論——我們一直在聽到關於 10 月和 11 月的消息，你的趨勢是如何從本季度退出到另一個季度的——進入本季度？最後，斯科特，你提到了產品成本機會。與下半年相比，您如何看待 23 年上半年的供應鏈？

So as you mentioned, we were pleased to see the sequential improvement from Q2 to Q3. In fact, we were pleased to see it in both of our brands. If you do take a step back, the Hollister customer, as we've talked about recently, has definitely been more impacted by inflation than our Abercrombie consumer seems to be at the moment. But we are controlling what we can control.

因此，正如您提到的，我們很高興看到從第二季度到第三季度的連續改善。事實上，我們很高興在我們的兩個品牌中看到它。如果您確實退後一步，正如我們最近談到的那樣，Hollister 客戶顯然比我們的 Abercrombie 客戶目前受到通貨膨脹的影響更大。但是我們正在控制我們可以控制的東西。

The leadership changes came towards the end of Q2, the inventory changes -- we got on those as soon as we started to see some opportunities hit us as back-to-school kicked off at the end of the last quarter. It's exciting to see our tops business is very strong. We chased into those. Our theory there when we talk to the consumer is that perhaps they can't buy a couple pairs of jeans this year, but they want their outfits to look new, so they're putting new tops with those.

領導層變動是在第二季度末進行的，庫存發生變化——我們在上個季度末返校開始時看到一些機會襲擊了我們，就立即進行了調整。很高興看到我們的毛條業務非常強勁。我們追進了那些。當我們與消費者交談時，我們的理論是，他們今年可能買不起幾條牛仔褲，但他們希望自己的衣服看起來很新，所以他們會在上面搭配新的上衣。

We are determined to continue to see these improvements in the quarters to come, and the team is working very hard on adjusting inventories and really leaning into categories that are working. Let's see question 2, October into November. Go ahead.

我們決心在未來幾個季度繼續看到這些改進，團隊正在非常努力地調整庫存，並真正傾向於有效的類別。我們來看問題 2，10 月到 11 月。前進。

I'll grab that one. So similar trends been what we've been seeing across the industry. It sounds like it was pervasive across the industry. A little bit of softness there, late October, and maybe into the first week of November. Super warm there in the Midwest and Northeast. And obviously, that's not optimal for selling cold weather products. I have seen those trends improve since like others, which is exciting. We are seeing good early selling through our cold weather categories and outerwear fleece, sweaters in the places where we need to win in Q4. So happy with the results there, the early results in those categories.

我會抓住那個。因此，我們在整個行業都看到了類似的趨勢。聽起來它在整個行業都很普遍。 10 月下旬，可能會持續到 11 月的第一周，那裡有一點柔軟。中西部和東北部超級溫暖。顯然，這不是銷售寒冷天氣產品的最佳選擇。自從像其他人一樣，我已經看到這些趨勢有所改善，這令人興奮。在我們需要在第四季度獲勝的地方，我們通過寒冷天氣類別和外套羊毛、毛衣看到了良好的早期銷售。對那裡的結果很滿意，這些類別的早期結果。

On product cost opportunities as we look through -- look to next year. The great thing to see these costs coming back in, significant reductions in freight through the ocean and air as well as seeing the cotton prices stabilize here and down pretty significantly year-over-year. Obviously, it's going to take a little bit longer to see that cotton flow through. So first half of next year, cotton will be pressure, and then we'll start to see the benefits in the second half of next year. Optimistic that we'll see the freight benefit throughout the entire year, assuming those ocean costs stay where they are. So good news coming, hopefully, on the product cost front.

在我們回顧的產品成本機會上——展望明年。很高興看到這些成本回歸，海運和空運運費大幅減少，棉花價格穩定下來，同比大幅下降。顯然，要花更長的時間才能看到棉花流過。所以明年上半年棉花會承壓，明年下半年開始見利好。假設這些海運成本保持不變，我們將樂觀地看到全年的運費收益。希望在產品成本方面出現好消息。

Our next question comes from Corey Tarlowe from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Corey Tarlowe。

Congrats on the progress here. So Fran, maybe if you could just start talking a little bit about how you feel about the health of the inventory going into the holiday. It sounds like a lot of the inventory is current, and there are lots of stores, and they seem to look really good. So maybe just talk a little bit about the assortment and the health of the inventory into the holiday here. And then I have a follow-up.

祝賀這裡取得的進展。所以弗蘭，也許你可以開始談談你對進入假期的庫存健康狀況的看法。聽起來很多庫存都是現成的，而且店面也很多，看起來真的很不錯。因此，也許只是在這裡談談假期中庫存的分類和健康狀況。然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes, we've been -- inventory has been a hot topic this year. And we've been talking about it on every quarter, and we kicked off the year by saying that we had a strategy on our inventory, which was really to pull it forward and get ourselves set up for the most important quarter of the year. So last year, we were struggling with both closures in Vietnam with our product as well as a lot of supply chain issues, and we were not going to disappoint our customers again.

是的，我們一直是——庫存一直是今年的熱門話題。我們每個季度都在談論它，我們在今年開始時說我們有一個庫存戰略，這實際上是為了推動它向前發展，並為今年最重要的季度做好準備。因此，去年，我們在越南因我們的產品關閉以及許多供應鏈問題而苦苦掙扎，我們不會再讓我們的客戶失望了。

So we were able to get to about 36%, which is what I mentioned in my script, half of where we were last quarter. But to your point, that inventory is current. It's 92% current. We did a lot of adjusting of our inventory as we start to see the consumer respond to our product in the second quarter. So we're pleased by category and by brand on where we currently are and will be flat by the end of the year, which is what we had said as we said at our strategy. I think you said you had a follow-up. .

所以我們能夠達到大約 36%，這是我在腳本中提到的，是上個季度的一半。但就您而言，該庫存是最新的。電流為 92%。當我們開始看到消費者在第二季度對我們的產品做出反應時，我們對庫存進行了大量調整。因此，我們對我們目前所處的類別和品牌感到滿意，並且到今年年底將持平，這就是我們在戰略中所說的那樣。我想你說過你有後續行動。 .

Great. Yes, could you just talk about how you think about the promotional environment as we head into holiday? It seems like people have been talking about more promotions that are expected to see ahead. Could you maybe just talk about how that is baked into the guide? And then, Scott, how you bridge that 5% to 7% operating margin, maybe some of the puts and takes for the Q4 that are associated with that.

偉大的。是的，你能談談你如何看待我們進入假期時的促銷環境嗎？似乎人們一直在談論預計未來會有更多的促銷活動。您能否談談如何將其納入指南？然後，斯科特，你如何將 5% 到 7% 的營業利潤率聯繫起來，也許是與此相關的第四季度的一些看跌期權和看跌期權。

Sure. So we're heading into -- this is a big week of the quarter. I think everybody knows it's the most promotional quarter of the year. Our promotional strategy, as we've stated many times, is based on what is and isn't working for us, not what is happening relative to other retailers that are out there.

當然。所以我們即將進入——這是本季度重要的一周。我想每個人都知道這是一年中促銷最多的季度。正如我們多次聲明的那樣，我們的促銷策略是基於對我們有效和無效的，而不是相對於其他零售商正在發生的事情。

I'm very proud to say that our promotions are considerably less than where we were pre-pandemic and flat to where we were last year. We're seeing some nice selling already from some categories and some cold weather categories. So we are positioned to compete, and I'm personally looking forward to being out in the malls and seeing all that consumer energy this weekend.

我很自豪地說，我們的晉升幅度遠低於大流行前的水平，與去年持平。我們已經看到一些類別和一些寒冷天氣類別的銷量不錯。所以我們做好了競爭的準備，我個人很期待本週末去商場看看所有的消費者活力。

As we think about that promo environment kind of bridging to the operating margin, we will see -- we expect to see Abercrombie AURs up again. They were up nicely there in Q3 and Hollister was down in Q3 as we continue to push on that back-to-school inventory. Again, that was inventory that we bought earlier in the year before that trend fell down kind of in that June time period.

當我們考慮將促銷環境與營業利潤率聯繫起來時，我們將會看到——我們希望看到 Abercrombie AUR 再次上升。隨著我們繼續推動返校庫存，他們在第三季度表現不錯，而霍利斯特在第三季度表現不佳。同樣，這是我們在今年早些時候購買的庫存，然後該趨勢在那個 6 月的時間段內下降。

So we expect to see the same thing play through in Q4, Abercrombie AUR up, Hollister down a little bit as we continue to push through that clearance, that carryover clearance. As we think about bridging the 5% to 7% operating margin, the good thing is as we're getting closer to last year, whenever we really started to see the freight come in, so we'll still be below 2021 levels. And the way I think about it is gross margin will still see some pressure there year-over-year.

因此，我們希望在第四季度看到同樣的事情發生，Abercrombie AUR 上升，Hollister 下降一點，因為我們繼續推進那個清關，那個結轉清關。當我們考慮將 5% 的營業利潤率縮小到 7% 時，好消息是我們離去年越來越近，每當我們真正開始看到運費進來時，我們仍將低於 2021 年的水平。我的想法是，毛利率仍會同比出現一些壓力。

While we see freight being a nice tailwind in Q4, cotton will absorb most of that as that fully comes into the P&L and flows through. On the other costs, not much else happening in AUC. We talked about AUR. And then other operating costs, we want to keep them relatively flat to last year. So really for Q4, year-over-year, it's going to be a margin story, and we'll work through the promo environment. And as Fran said, we're targeting that inventory to be flat at year-end to last year and move cleanly into 2023. And again, so the first question earlier, really excited about what we're seeing from product costs and hopefully seeing that benefit throughout 2023.

雖然我們認為運費在第四季度是一個不錯的順風，但棉花將吸收其中的大部分，因為它完全進入損益表並流經。在其他成本方面，AUC 並沒有發生太多其他事情。我們談到了 AUR。然後是其他運營成本，我們希望它們與去年持平。所以對於第四季度來說，與去年同期相比，這將是一個保證金故事，我們將在促銷環境中工作。正如 Fran 所說，我們的目標是該庫存在年底與去年持平，並順利進入 2023 年。再一次，所以前面的第一個問題，我們對我們從產品成本中看到的情況感到非常興奮，並希望看到整個 2023 年受益。

Paul Lejuez from Citi.

來自花旗的 Paul Lejuez。

This is Kelly Crago on for Paul. So I just wanted to follow up on, sort of, what you're seeing from a promotional standpoint. So I guess you're saying that the Hollister brand is more promotional year-over-year. And then I guess I'm just curious, relative to 2019, what those AURs look like?

這是保羅的凱利克拉戈。所以我只是想從促銷的角度跟進你所看到的。所以我猜你是說 Hollister 品牌的促銷活動逐年增加。然後我想我只是好奇，相對於 2019 年，那些 AUR 是什麼樣子的？

And then on the other side, A&F was also -- or was less promotional year-over-year, which is driving the higher AURs than I would assume that those AURs are up relative to 2019.

然後在另一方面，A&F 也——或者說促銷活動同比減少，這推動了更高的 AUR，而不是我認為這些 AUR 相對於 2019 年有所上升。

Yes, let me have this one.

是的，讓我擁有這個。

Clarifying the first point. .

澄清第一點。 .

Yes, on the first point, so when we talk about Hollister, we're not more promotional. Our promotions this year for Black Friday will be consistent to last year, that promotion has started, which is good. Where we might see some additional promotions or pricing actions versus last year will just be to continue to clean up that carryover inventory. So that's where we're assuming AURs will be down a little bit on a constant currency basis.

是的，關於第一點，所以當我們談論霍利斯特時，我們並沒有更多的宣傳。我們今年的黑色星期五促銷活動將與去年保持一致，促銷活動已經開始，這很好。與去年相比，我們可能會看到一些額外的促銷或定價行動，只是繼續清理結轉庫存。因此，這就是我們假設 AUR 在固定貨幣基礎上會略有下降的地方。

We do have FX as a continued hurt sadly here in Q4. So that's going to hurt the AUR just on a currency basis. As we think about 2019, it's -- actually, we like where the AURs are, they're up across brands. So even for Hollister in Q3, where we had put more promotions on to move that back-to-school inventory. Those AURs are still higher than 2020 -- or I'm sorry, 2019 pre-pandemic, and Abercrombie up nicely as we kind of fully evolved that brand and that assortment.

令人遺憾的是，在第四季度，我們確實有 FX 持續受到傷害。因此，這將僅在貨幣基礎上損害 AUR。當我們考慮 2019 年時，實際上，我們喜歡 AUR 所在的位置，它們在各個品牌中都有所體現。因此，即使對於第三季度的 Hollister，我們也進行了更多促銷活動以轉移返校庫存。這些 AUR 仍然高於 2020 年——或者對不起，2019 年大流行前，Abercrombie 的表現很好，因為我們對該品牌和分類進行了全面發展。

So loving the AURs that we're seeing across brands, even in light of what we've had to do for Hollister more recently. And then getting back to that cost that's coming back in to see gross margin going in a good direction go forward. And A&F something we have been talking about -- sorry, just on A&F as we've been going through, we've been much less promotional year-over-year, that brand. The momentum that we've seen there has just been amazing. And we've been able to pull off promotions, both depth and frequency.

非常喜歡我們在各個品牌中看到的 AUR，即使考慮到我們最近不得不為 Hollister 做的事情。然後回到正在回歸的成本，看到毛利率朝著好的方向前進。還有 A&F 我們一直在談論的東西——抱歉，就在我們經歷的 A&F 上，我們的促銷活動比去年同期少得多，那個品牌。我們在那裡看到的勢頭令人驚嘆。而且我們已經能夠在深度和頻率上進行促銷。

Got it. And then just secondly on your comments around the quarter-to-date trends. So I guess you're saying that you did see a little bit of a slowdown in October, but trends have kind of stabilized, maybe improving as we get closer to the holiday. And I'm just curious, so net down to 2% to 4% is pretty consistent with 3Q. So is that kind of what you're seeing quarter-to-date?

知道了。其次是您對季度最新趨勢的評論。所以我猜你是說你確實看到 10 月份有點放緩，但趨勢有點穩定，隨著假期的臨近，趨勢可能會有所改善。我只是好奇，所以淨下降到 2% 到 4% 與第三季度非常一致。那麼，這是您本季度迄今看到的情況嗎？

And then just curious on the kind of the comparisons as we move through the quarter. Omicron was an issue last year. There was some pull -- we think there was maybe some pull forward of demand in holiday last year. So just curious how the rest of the quarter looks on a year-over-year basis.

然後只是對我們在本季度移動時的比較類型感到好奇。 Omicron 是去年的一個問題。有一些拉動——我們認為去年假期的需求可能有一些拉動。所以很好奇本季度的其餘時間與去年同期相比如何。

We'll start back with that one. So yes, I mean, our expectation, interestingly, for this holiday is that it probably would mirror more pre-pandemic. So last year and the year before, we saw a little bit more of a flattening demand throughout from Black Friday through the holidays. Prior to that, you used to see these big spikes on the most traffic days, which would be this Black Friday week through Giving Tuesday and then some of the key Saturdays. So we are expecting a little bit more of a cadence similar to pre-pandemic.

我們將從那個開始。所以，是的，我的意思是，有趣的是，我們對這個假期的期望是它可能會更多地反映大流行前的情況。因此，去年和前年，從黑色星期五到假期，我們看到需求趨於平緩。在此之前，您通常會在流量最多的日子看到這些大峰值，這將是這個黑色星期五周到 Giving 星期二，然後是一些關鍵的星期六。因此，我們期待更多類似於大流行前的節奏。

Yes, Kelly, like you kicked off with quarter-to-date trends consistent with Q3. So I feel good where we are. Yes, a couple of weeks in October, a little tough there at the end. These are small weeks in the quarter, same thing with November week 1. So back on track. Once the weather turned, we saw some great selling in those cold weather categories I mentioned earlier. So feel good sitting here today. And as we go through the quarter, we had light inventory last year. We have the inventory this year, and we're excited to compete as we go through the quarter.

是的，凱利，就像你從與第三季度一致的季度至今趨勢開始一樣。所以我感覺我們現在的位置很好。是的，在 10 月的幾週，最後有點艱難。這些是本季度的小周，與 11 月的第 1 週相同。所以回到正軌。一旦天氣轉好，我們就看到了我之前提到的那些寒冷天氣類別的大量銷售。所以今天坐在這裡感覺很好。當我們經歷這個季度時，去年我們的庫存很少。我們今年有庫存，我們很高興能在本季度進行競爭。

Carla Casella, JPMorgan.

卡拉卡塞拉，摩根大通。

Well, I wanted to ask you about -- you bought back $8 million of bonds in the quarter in the open market. What's your thought in terms of just your capital structure and whether you would consider calling those bonds, or at what point you'll take it out and look at the structure?

好吧，我想問你 - 你在公開市場上本季度回購了 800 萬美元的債券。就您的資本結構而言，您有何想法？您是否會考慮贖回這些債券，或者在什麼時候將其取出並查看結構？

Carla, yes, bought back some bonds in the quarter, $8 million. We had done about $40 million middle of last year. So as we have excess cash, we look at the capital allocation stack. We increased capital investments. We've taken them for this year from $150 million to $170 million, so continuing to invest back in the business. Bought a little bit of stock back and bought the bonds back.

是的，卡拉在本季度回購了一些債券，價值 800 萬美元。去年年中我們做了大約 4000 萬美元。因此，當我們有多餘的現金時，我們會查看資本配置堆棧。我們增加了資本投資。我們今年將他們的收入從 1.5 億美元增加到 1.7 億美元，因此我們將繼續投資於該業務。回購了一點股票並回購了債券。

When we think about our capital structure, we're comfortable holding the debt that we're holding. When we see opportunities like we have seen more recently where the debt trades below par, we can go in there and buy a little bit of that back in the open market, save a little bit of interest expense, nice cash payback going forward. So big picture, though, comfortable with the debt. And as we have excess cash, we'll continue to look at that capital allocation stack and see where we put the cash to work.

當我們考慮我們的資本結構時，我們很樂意持有我們持有的債務。當我們看到像最近看到的債務交易低於面值的機會時，我們可以進入那裡並在公開市場上買回一點，節省一點利息支出，未來可觀的現金回報。如此大的圖景，儘管如此，對債務感到滿意。由於我們有多餘的現金，我們將繼續關注資本配置堆棧，看看我們將現金投入何處。

Okay, great. And then if I could just do 1 more question on the shipping costs. Can you just talk about freight rates and kind of where they peaked and where they are now relative to where you expect them to be in the next quarter and next year?

好，太棒了。然後我可以再問 1 個關於運費的問題嗎？您能談談運費率以及它們達到頂峰的位置以及它們現在相對於您預計下一季度和明年的位置的位置嗎？

Yes. The peaks, I would say happened probably earlier this year, and shipping costs are tough to pin down. There's indices all over the place. But when you don't shift from just the index point somewhere in China to maybe the West Coast, we ship from multiple countries in Southeast Asia. So there's no one index that I can just grab. But what I would say is they're down pretty significantly from the peak.

是的。峰值，我想說可能發生在今年早些時候，而且運輸成本很難確定。到處都是指數。但是當你不只是從中國某個地方的指數點轉移到西海岸時，我們會從東南亞的多個國家發貨。所以沒有一個索引是我可以抓取的。但我要說的是，它們已經從峰值下降了很多。

And with the demand environment that we're seeing out there, a lot of retailers, including us, pulled back on Q4 receipts whenever the businesses fell off earlier this summer. So the demand environment is good. Hopefully, that's tilted back in the favor of the retailers. We're seeing that come in the pricing and optimistic that, that will stick in Q4 and beyond.

在我們所看到的需求環境下，包括我們在內的許多零售商在今年夏天早些時候業務下滑時撤回了第四季度的收入。所以需求環境是好的。希望這對零售商有利。我們在定價中看到了這一點，並且樂觀地認為，這將持續到第四季度及以後。

Janet Kloppenburg, JJK Research Associates.

JJK Research Associates 的珍妮特·克洛彭伯格 (Janet Kloppenburg)。

Congrats on the great progress. Fran, just a couple of quick -- first of all, clarification. I think you're saying you expect your promos to be flat for the fourth quarter and were they higher in the year-over-year in the third quarter to clear the Hollister product, but improved at A&F as driven by the AUR gain? That's the first question.

祝賀你取得了巨大進步。 Fran，請快速說明一下——首先，澄清一下。我想你是說你預計你的促銷在第四季度持平，並且在第三季度它們是否比去年同期更高以清除 Hollister 產品，但在 AUR 收益的推動下 A&F 有所改善？這是第一個問題。

Second question, what's going on with A&F men's? And should we have any concern there? And then secondly, when you look at Hollister assortments for go forward into spring, are you encouraged that we could see an inflection in Hollister's comps sometime in the first half?

第二個問題，A&F男裝是怎麼回事？我們應該擔心嗎？其次，當你看到 Hollister 的產品進入春季時，你是否感到鼓舞，因為我們可以在上半年的某個時候看到 Hollister 的產品出現變化？

Janet, I'll clear up the first one real quick and then Fran can get into it. So meanwhile -- for Abercrombie in Q3, it was down for Hollister as we pressed on pricing to clear that back-to-school inventory. As we think about going into holiday, our main promotions, [the percent of] stores or the promotions that we're running outside the store should be relatively consistent year-over-year. As a reminder, we rightsized that Q4 and forward inventory buy for Hollister.

珍妮特，我會很快清理掉第一個，然後弗蘭就可以開始了。因此與此同時——對於 Abercrombie 在第三季度，Hollister 的業績下滑，因為我們施壓定價以清理返校庫存。當我們考慮進入假期時，我們的主要促銷活動、[商店的百分比]或我們在商店外進行的促銷活動應該與去年同期相對一致。提醒一下，我們對 Hollister 的第四季度和遠期庫存購買進行了調整。

Where we'll focus any excess markdowns in Q4 will be on Hollister carryover inventory. So we'll see how that plays out in the selling mix in Q4. And then I'll kick it over to Fran.

我們將把第四季度的任何過度降價集中在 Hollister 結轉庫存上。因此，我們將看到這在第四季度的銷售組合中如何發揮作用。然後我會把它踢給弗蘭。

Sure.

當然。

Wait, wait, wait. Can you hear me? Can you hear me? What about Hollister though? From promos, just for my notes, I just want to clarify that promos were up, would you say meaningfully, Scott, for Hollister in 3Q?

等等，等等，等等。你能聽到我嗎？你能聽到我嗎？霍利斯特呢？從宣傳片來看，就我的筆記而言，我只是想澄清一下，斯科特，第三季度的霍利斯特宣傳片是有意義的嗎？

I wouldn't say meaningfully. We turned through our back-to-school inventory a little more clearance pricing. You take it a little bit lower on the markdowns, but I wouldn't call it meaningful.

我不會說有意義。我們翻閱了返校庫存，多了一點清倉價。你把它降價一點點，但我不認為它有意義。

And regarding men's -- so in my script, I actually get it. It's exciting second quarter for men's, we talked about seeing some green shoots. But in the third quarter, we actually saw some growth. So we are encouraged that the men's consumer is seeing how Abercrombie is back, like the women's consumer has been seeing it for quite some time now and responding to some good categories in our top, strong. Our outerwear business is strong. So we're actually very encouraged with what we're seeing in the men's business.

關於男裝——所以在我的劇本中，我真的明白了。對於男子來說，這是令人興奮的第二季度，我們談到看到一些新芽。但在第三季度，我們實際上看到了一些增長。因此，我們感到鼓舞的是，男性消費者正在看到 Abercrombie 的回歸，就像女性消費者已經看到它已經有一段時間了，並對我們頂級、強大的一些好的類別做出反應。我們的外套業務很強勁。因此，我們對男裝業務中看到的情況感到非常鼓舞。

That's A&F?

那是A&F？

A&F, exactly. Yes. And then for Hollister, it was great to see quite some improvement this quarter. Our expectation is to continue to see some sequential improvement. We're seeing good business on the top, as I mentioned, the consumer is looking to update their outfits. So they're buying a new top perhaps to go with their jeans.

A＆F，確切地說。是的。然後對於霍利斯特來說，很高興看到本季度有相當大的進步。我們的期望是繼續看到一些連續的改善。正如我所提到的，我們看到頂部有良好的業務，消費者正在尋求更新他們的服裝。所以他們買了一件新的上衣，也許是為了搭配他們的牛仔褲。

There's also a lot happening in non-denim bottoms. We've chased into categories like cargo pants, which the consumer responded to quite well during back-to-school. We didn't have enough, we've chased into those. So our expectation is to continue to see sequential improvement in Hollister quarter-by-quarter.

非牛仔下裝也有很多變化。我們追逐了工裝褲等類別，消費者在返校期間對這些類別的反應相當好。我們沒有足夠的，我們已經追進了那些。因此，我們的預期是繼續看到 Hollister 逐季改善。

And do you expect a lag in Europe, Fran?

弗蘭，你認為歐洲會滯後嗎？

Yes. I mean international business has been challenging. There's a lot of uncertainty still in Europe. We are managing what we can in the short term, right? We're controlling our inventory. We are continuing to open up stores and we do believe in the long-term opportunity there. So we'll have to see what the fourth quarter brings. It's been challenging.

是的。我的意思是國際業務一直充滿挑戰。歐洲仍然存在很多不確定性。我們正在管理我們在短期內所能做的，對嗎？我們正在控制庫存。我們正在繼續開設商店，我們相信那裡的長期機會。所以我們必須看看第四季度會帶來什麼。這很有挑戰性。

(Operator Instructions) Now I will take a question from Mauricio Serna from UBS.

（操作員說明）現在我將接受來自瑞銀的 Mauricio Serna 的提問。

Great. Congratulations on the progress. Just wanted to ask if you could elaborate a little bit more on category performance across the 2 brands, particularly interested in seeing how denim has trended during the quarter.

偉大的。祝賀你的進步。只是想問問您是否可以詳細說明這兩個品牌的品類表現，特別是想了解牛仔佈在本季度的趨勢。

And then maybe if you could talk a little bit about Europe and what are the pockets where you're seeing some weakness in the market? And lastly, on freight, on the Q4 outlook. I mean I think I recall from last year, there was like a 370 basis point impact. So I just want to -- I wanted to ask if you expect that to fully revert in this quarter or maybe just like a more gradual pace, so...

然後也許你可以談談歐洲，以及你看到市場疲軟的地方是什麼？最後，關於貨運，關於第四季度的前景。我的意思是，我想我記得去年有 370 個基點的影響。所以我只想 - 我想問你是否希望在本季度完全恢復，或者只是像一個更漸進的步伐，所以......

All right, Mauricio, let's go back up to the top here. So category performance for denim. So we're seeing actually a little bit of a difference by brand. So Abercrombie had another -- Abercrombie women's, particularly hit another record quarter in denim and the Hollister denim business has gotten sequentially better.

好吧，Mauricio，讓我們回到頂部。所以牛仔布的品類表現。所以我們實際上看到了品牌之間的一些差異。因此，Abercrombie 推出了另一款產品——Abercrombie 女裝，特別是在牛仔布領域創下了另一個創紀錄的季度，而 Hollister 牛仔佈業務也連續好轉。

What we're really seeing from the consumer, though, is a move into non-denim bottoms. There's a lot happening. We set another record in Abercrombie women's where we sold the best pants, I think, in over a decade or something got right over? Yes. And in Hollister often non-denim bottoms are doing very nicely, as I mentioned just quickly before about cargo pants and things of those opportunities. So we are shifting our receipts into -- leaning into what's working, and we're going to continue to do that.

不過，我們真正從消費者那裡看到的是轉向非牛仔布褲裝。發生了很多事情。我們在 Abercrombie 女裝中創造了另一個記錄，我認為我們在十多年內賣出了最好的褲子，或者什麼事情就結束了？是的。在 Hollister，非牛仔底褲通常表現非常好，正如我之前很快提到的工裝褲和那些機會的東西。所以我們正在將我們的收據轉移到 - 傾向於什麼是有效的，我們將繼續這樣做。

All right. Let's sum up to Europe, so pockets of weakness. So where we are seeing strength, has been relatively consistent. We've seen it in the U.K. and we've seen it in the Middle East. And then kind of our next few countries, when you think about Germany, France, Italy, that's where we've seen the softness.

好的。讓我們總結一下歐洲的弱點。所以我們看到的力量，一直是相對一致的。我們在英國看到過，在中東也看到過。然後是我們接下來的幾個國家，當你想到德國、法國、意大利時，這就是我們看到的軟性。

Obviously, Germany has some significant uncertainty right now with the gas situation over the winter. So like Fran said a minute ago, we're just keeping our eyes on the region. We will control what we can control, keeping inventory lean, and we're just going to read and react as we go through the winter.

顯然，德國冬季的天然氣形勢存在一些重大不確定性。所以就像 Fran 一分鐘前說的那樣，我們只是關注該地區。我們將控制我們能控制的東西，保持庫存精簡，我們將在度過冬天時閱讀並做出反應。

On the freight side and thinking about the outlook. So yes, last year, we had about $75 million hit up with freights when we had significant air usage, high air rates, high ocean rates coming in. We're going to get a big chunk of that back this year. You don't get all of it back. It's going to take a little bit of time for those lower rates to flow through the P&L. So again, hopefully, some good things coming there in 2023.

在貨運方面並考慮前景。所以是的，去年，當我們大量使用航空、高空運費、高海運費時，我們有大約 7500 萬美元的運費。今年我們將收回其中的大部分。你不會把它全部拿回來。這些較低的利率要花一些時間才能通過損益表。因此，再次希望 2023 年會有一些好事發生。

But then some of that offset of the good pickup in freight year-over-year, we'll be seeing that cotton flow through in those higher rates. So we're kind of working through the inflation and the input costs. Freight hopefully have seen the peak, and we're on the good side of it. Cotton still, we've got to get through the peak there. And then hopefully, in the back half of 2023, we'll see some benefits coming in.

但隨後部分抵消了運費同比的良好回升，我們將看到棉花以較高的運費流過。因此，我們正在努力應對通貨膨脹和投入成本。運費有望達到頂峰，我們處於有利的一面。棉花還在，我們必須度過那裡的高峰期。然後希望在 2023 年下半年，我們會看到一些好處。

And as there are no further questions in the queue, I'd like to hand the call back over to Fran Horowitz for any additional or closing remarks. Over to you.

由於隊列中沒有其他問題，我想將電話轉回給 Fran Horowitz，以徵求任何補充或結束評論。交給你了。

Just want to thank everyone for joining the call today and wishing you and your families a safe and happy holiday season.

只想感謝大家今天加入電話會議，祝您和您的家人度過一個安全快樂的假期。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。