Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Allison Transmissions' third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Kevin, and I'll be your conference call operator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

午安.謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加艾里遜變速箱 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫凱文，今天我將擔任您的電話會議接線生。（操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jackie Bolles, Executive Director of Treasury and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Jackie.

我現在想將電話會議轉交給財務和投資者關係執行董事 Jackie Bolles。請繼續，傑基。

Thank you, Kevin. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me this afternoon are Dave Graziosi, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer, and Fred Bowley, our Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer. As a reminder, this conference call, webcast, and this afternoon's presentation are available on the Investor Relations section of AllisonTransmission.com. A replay of this call will be available through November 12th.

謝謝你，凱文。下午好，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天下午與我在一起的有我們的董事長兼首席執行官戴夫·格拉齊奧西 (Dave Graziosi) 以及我們的首席營運官、首席財務官兼財務主管弗雷德·鮑利 (Fred Bowley)。請注意，本次電話會議、網路廣播和今天下午的演示可在 AllisonTransmission.com 的投資者關係部分查看。本次電話會議的重播將持續到 11 月 12 日。

As noted on slide 2 of the presentation, many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, including those set forth in our third quarter 2024 earnings press release and our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, as well as other general economic factors. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those that we expressed today.

正如簡報投影片 2 中所指出的，我們今天的許多言論都包含基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到已知和未知風險的影響，包括我們的 2024 年第三季財報新聞稿和截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表格年度報告中所述的風險，以及其他一般經濟因素。如果這些風險或不確定性中的一項或多項成為現實，或者基本假設或估計被證明不正確，則實際結果可能與我們今天表達的結果有重大差異。

In addition, as noted on slide 3 of the presentation, some of our remarks today contain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the SEC. you can find reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures attached as an appendix to the presentation and to our third quarter 2024 earnings press release. Today's call is set to end at 5.45 p.m. Eastern Time. In order to maximize participation opportunities on the call, we'll take just one question from each analyst.

此外，正如簡報第 3 投影片中所述，我們今天的一些言論包含 SEC 定義的非 GAAP 財務指標。您可以在簡報和 2024 年第三季財報新聞稿的附錄中找到非 GAAP 財務指標與最具可比性 GAAP 指標的調整表。今天的電話會議定於下午 5.45 結束。東部時間。為了最大限度地增加電話會議的參與機會，我們將只回答每位分析師的一個問題。

Please turn to slide 4 of the presentation for the call agenda. During today's call, Fred Bohley will review our third quarter 2024 financial performance and review updates to our full year 2024 guidance. Dave will close with an update on recent announcements across our business prior to commencing the Q&A. Now, I'll turn the call over to Fred.

請參閱簡報的投影片 4 以了解電話會議議程。在今天的電話會議上，Fred Bohley 將回顧我們 2024 年第三季的財務業績，並回顧我們 2024 年全年指引的更新。在開始問答之前，戴夫將介紹我們公司最近發布的最新公告。現在，我將把電話轉給弗雷德。

Thank you, Jackie. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. As we progress through 2024, demand for Class 8 vocational vehicles continues to drive notable performance in Allison's North America on-highway end market, leading to record results for the business as a whole. I would like to take a moment to thank our team for their combined efforts, working diligently to meet the unprecedented demand we are seeing for our 3,000 and 4,000 series products in North America. While continuing to work toward the realization of our $100 million incremental annual revenue opportunity in our defense-end market, as well as drive our growth objectives outside North America to capitalize on increased adoption of automatic transmissions.

謝謝你，傑基。下午好，感謝您加入我們。隨著 2024 年的進展，對 8 級職業車輛的需求將繼續推動艾里遜北美公路終端市場的顯著業績，導致整個業務創下歷史新高。我想花一點時間感謝我們的團隊的共同努力，他們辛勤工作，以滿足我們在北美對 3,000 和 4,000 系列產品前所未有的需求。同時繼續致力於在國防端市場實現 1 億美元的年增量收入機會，並推動我們在北美以外地區的成長目標，以利用自動變速箱採用率的增加。

Please turn to slide 5 of the presentation for the Q3 2024 performance summary. Year-over-year net sales increased 12% from the same period in 2023 To a record of $824 million. The increase in year-over-year results was led by a 22% increase in the North American on-highway end market, principally driven by strength in demand for Class 8 vocational vehicles and medium-duty trucks and price increases on certain products. Year-over-year net sales were further improved by a 23% increase in our defense end market The increase was principally driven by increased demand for tracked vehicle applications. And finally, year-over-year results were improved by a record third quarter in our outside North American on-highway end market. The increase in net sales in the outside North American on-highway end market was principally driven by higher demand in Asia and price increases on certain products, partially offset by lower demand in Europe. Gross profit for the quarter was $396 million, an increase of $39 million from $357 million for the same period in 2023. The increase in gross profit was principally driven by increased net sales and price increases on certain products, partially offset by higher manufacturing expense. Net income for the quarter was $200 million, an increase of $42 million, or 27% from the same period in 2023. The increase was principally driven by higher gross profit and lower interest expense net. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $305 million compared to $267 million for the same period in 2023. The increase in adjusted EBITDA was principally driven by higher gross profit. Diluted earnings per share increased 29% year-over-year to an all-time quarterly record of $2.27. The increase was driven by higher net income and lower total shares outstanding. A detailed overview of our net sales by end market and Q3 2024 financial performance can be found on slides 6 and 7 of the presentation.

請參閱簡報的第 5 張投影片，以了解 2024 年第三季的業績摘要。淨銷售額較 2023 年同期成長 12%，達到創紀錄的 8.24 億美元。業績年增率主要得益於北美公路終端市場 22% 的成長，這主要是由於 8 級職業車輛和中型卡車的需求強勁以及某些產品的價格上漲所致。我們的國防終端市場較去年同期淨銷售額成長了 23%，進一步提高了這一成長主要是由於履帶車輛應用需求的增加。最後，北美以外的公路終端市場的第三季業績年比取得了創紀錄的改善。北美以外的公路終端市場淨銷售額的成長主要是由亞洲需求增加和某些產品價格上漲所推動的，但部分被歐洲需求下降所抵消。該季度毛利為 3.96 億美元，比 2023 年同期的 3.57 億美元增加了 3,900 萬美元。毛利潤的成長主要是由某些產品的淨銷售額增加和價格上漲所推動的，但部分被製造費用的增加所抵消。該季度淨利潤為 2 億美元，較 2023 年同期增加 4,200 萬美元，增幅為 27%。這一增長主要是由於毛利潤增加和淨利息支出減少所致。本季調整後 EBITDA 為 3.05 億美元，而 2023 年同期為 2.67 億美元。調整後 EBITDA 的成長主要是由於毛利增加所致。稀釋每股收益年增 29%，達到 2.27 美元的歷史季度記錄。這一增長是由於淨利潤增加和流通股總數減少所致。有關我們按終端市場劃分的淨銷售額和 2024 年第三季財務業績的詳細概述，請參閱簡報的幻燈片 6 和 7。

Please turn to slide 8 of the presentation for the Q3 2024 cash flow performance summary. Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $210 million compared to $182 million for the same period in 2023. The increase was principally driven by higher gross profit, partially offset by higher operating working capital funding requirements, and increased cash taxes and capital expenditures. During the third quarter, we paid a dividend of $0.25 per share and repurchased over $50 million of our common stock. We ended the quarter with a net leverage ratio of 1.4 times, $788 million of cash, and $745 million of available revolving credit facility commitments. In addition, we continue to maintain a flexible, long-dated, and covenant-like debt structure.

請參閱簡報第 8 張投影片，以了解 2024 年第三季現金流表現摘要。本季調整後自由現金流為 2.1 億美元，而 2023 年同期為 1.82 億美元。這一成長主要是由於毛利增加，部分被營運營運資本資金需求增加以及現金稅和資本支出增加所抵銷。第三季度，我們支付了每股 0.25 美元的股息，並回購了超過 5,000 萬美元的普通股。本季結束時，我們的淨槓桿率為 1.4 倍，現金為 7.88 億美元，可用循環信貸額度承諾為 7.45 億美元。此外，我們持續保持彈性、長期、契約式的債務結構。

Please turn to slide 9 of the presentation for the update to our 2024 guidance. As a result of the ongoing strength in the North American on-highway end market, we are raising our full-year guidance midpoints for revenue, earnings, and cash flow. Allison expects net sales to be in the range of $3,135,000,000 to $3,215,000,000. In addition to Allison's 2024 net sales guidance, we anticipate net income in the range of $675,000,000 to $725,000,000. Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1,115,000,000 to $1,175,000,000 Net cash provided by operating activities in the range of $740,000,000 to $800,000,000 Capital expenditures in the range of $135,000,000 to $145,000,000 And adjusted pre-cash flow in the range of $605,000,000 to $655,000,000 Thank you, and I'll now turn the call over to Dave for an update on recent announcements across our business.

請參閱簡報的投影片 9，以了解我們 2024 年指南的更新。由於北美公路終端市場的持續強勁，我們提高了全年收入、獲利和現金流指導中點。艾里森預計淨銷售額將在 3,135,000,000 美元至 3,215,000,000 美元之間。除了艾里遜 2024 年淨銷售額指引外，我們預計淨利潤在 6.75 億美元至 7.25 億美元之間。調整後的EBITDA 範圍為1,115,000,000 美元至1,175,000,000 美元經營活動提供的淨現金範圍為740,000,000 美元至800,000,000 美元資本支出範圍為135,000,000,000 美元655,000,000 美元謝謝你，我'現在請把電話轉給戴夫，了解我們業務最新公告的最新情況。

Thank you, Fred. Allison continues to see robust demand for our on-highway products, particularly our 3000 and 4000 series fully automatic transmissions due to unprecedented Class VIII vocational vehicle demand stemming from sustained infrastructure spending in North America. In order to meet this elevated demand, throughout the year we have made investments in our supply chain and operations to not only manage capacity, but also improve manufacturing throughput. Last week, we announced further plans for long-term sustainable growth and global capacity increases for our on-highway products through investment in our Chennai, India facility. Opening in 2010, our Chennai, India facility serves as the headquarters in the region, Expanding our presence while initially fabricating parts to support global production of our 1,000 and 2,000 series on-highway products. After demonstrating the ability to meet Allison's best-in-class manufacturing practices, the facility expanded capabilities to assemble our 1,000 and 2,000 series transmissions in 2012 while relying on components provided from our Indianapolis sourcing supply chain. We are excited to invest to nearly double the manufacturing footprint of the India facility, increasing fabrication capabilities for components of our 3,000 and 4,000 series on-highway products, giving us the ability to tailor our global production to meet regional demand. Our investment of over $100 million will be spread over the next few years, with nearly half of that total project spend expected to occur in 2025. As operations begin in 2026 and ramp up to full production in 2027, this investment will support our long-term growth objectives in the outside North America regions, raising our global capacity and offering operational cost savings. Through this investment, our global manufacturing operations will return to optimized levels of production, offering cost savings through efficiency gains, while increasing Allison's ability to meet the future demand for our on-highway products driven by the continued global adoption of automatic transmissions. We look forward to providing further updates as the project progresses. In support of our wide-body dump initiative representing $100 million of incremental annual revenue opportunity, during the quarter, we announced strategic partnership and executed a memorandum of understanding with Lugan a top-tier global construction equipment manufacturer. The MOU signing took place in Indonesia as part of a customer ride-and-drive event showcasing Lugang's latest 70-ton widebody dump truck equipped with Allison's innovative 4800 widebody dump series transmission. Our long-standing partnership with Lugang has been instrumental in our success in the global mining sector with this MOU-promising continued collaboration and innovation as we progress towards our incremental annual growth revenue target through share gains and market expansion. Also, in our outside North America on highway end market, we recently announced our collaboration with Ashok Leyland One of India's leading commercial vehicle manufacturers to introduce the first low-floor city buses equipped with fully automatic transmissions in the southern India market. Allison's Torgmatic series transmissions will equip the 12-meter diesel buses, which are specially designed to accommodate passengers with disabilities. The Allison-equipped buses will replace buses currently equipped with manual transmissions advancing transportation in the region, and showcasing our efforts to lead the transition to automaticity outside North America. Further driving our growth in outside North America on-highway end market is our wheeled defense business. As a reminder, the wheeled portion of our defense business utilizes variants of our conventional on-highway products with revenue from international customers flowing through our outside North America on-highway end market. Last week, we highlighted numerous releases which will support continued growth as a result of our strategic partnerships with vehicle manufacturers to support wheel defense programs internationally using Allison's specialty series on-highway transmissions. To start, variants of our 4000 series fully automatic transmissions were chosen for the British Ministry of Defense Boxer Armored Vehicle Program. The German Federal Armored Forces will also begin receiving boxer vehicles equipped with Allison fully automatic transmissions starting in 2025. This is in addition to over 700 boxer vehicles that have been delivered in recent years to countries including Australia, Lithuania, and the Netherlands. The Canadian Department of National Defense and the Romanian Ministry of Defense will also be receiving wheeled defense vehicles equipped with a 4000 series variant. In Poland, a new contract was signed for procurement of light armored reconnaissance carriers equipped with a variant of Allison's 3000-series fully automatic transmission. Deliveries will span over the next decade to 2035. And finally, the United Kingdom Ministry of Defense has placed an order for high-mobility trucks that will utilize a variant of Allison's 2000-series fully automatic transmission. As demonstrated by these releases, Allison has made significant strides in the global defense market with achievement of key program wins. We look forward to further growth across the defense industry as we leverage our commercial vehicle expertise and relationship with OEMs along with decades of proven reliability and durability to offer a wide range of propulsion solutions that meet the diverse application requirements for tactical wheeled vehicles. Finally, as our end markets evolve, we remain committed to offering a portfolio of products designed to meet the needs of customers and industry regulations, regardless of technology and fuel source. Allison fully automatic transmissions are fuel agnostic, offering optimal integration with any fuel source, including gasoline, natural gas, propane, and hydrogen. delivering durability and reliable performance to strengthen sustainability initiatives without sacrificing fleet productivity and efficiency. To compensate for the lower power and slower engine response associated with alternative fuels, Allison's PowerShift technology and torque converter significantly improves startability, drivability, and overall productivity, particularly as compared to competitive manual and automated manual transmissions. In late August, we were pleased to announce that GLS, a global shipping leader, successfully completed 30,000 kilometers in its evaluation of the Allison-equipped Hyundai Exient hydrogen fuel cell truck. Since late 2023, GLS Germany has used the hydrogen fuel cell truck, equipped with Allison's 4,000-series fully automatic transmission, to deliver packages in the greater Cologne area. Additionally, since March 2024, The truck has been used for long-distance trips between Cologne and Mannheim. Allison's patented torque converter multiplies the drive motor's torque at startup, allowing the vehicle to operate with a smaller and less powerful drive motor, maximizing range and efficiency and helping to reduce vehicle costs. This pioneering integration exemplifies Allison's alternative fuel advantage and is a further step in the testing of environmentally-friendly propulsion technology. Furthering our capabilities with hydrogen as a fuel source, we are pleased to announce our 4000 series fully automatic transmission was also integrated into a Class 8 truck equipped with a hydrogen internal combustion engine that was displayed by Southwest Research Institute at Convec in September. The integration of the Allison 4000 series in the hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicle demonstrates the critical role Internal combustion engine powertrain solutions can and will play in moving the industry closer to ultra-low emissions. As our industry approaches 2027, there will be transitions in technologies for compliance under the EPA's Phase III emissions regulations. Announced during the quarter, we recently collaborated with Cummins to integrate and certify the Cummins B-series engines with our Allison E-Gen Flex Electric Hybrid Propulsion Solution System for the Transit Bus Market. The integration will meet the EPA's Phase III requirements while providing a reliable, low-emission propulsion solution in 2027 and beyond. Also in pursuit of compliance to emissions standards, we were pleased to announce an uprate to our B400 and B3400 XFE fully automatic transmissions. As the non-articulated bus industry transitions to the Cummins X10 engine in order to meet the EPA's Phase III requirements, the increased ratings for our B400 and B3400 XFE models will enable fleets to continue specifying Allison products as the propulsion solution of choice. As shown by these integrations, collaborations, and technology advancements, Allison is dedicated to offering products which comply with upcoming emissions regulations while continuing to deliver differentiated value that supports our customers' operational and sustainability goals. In summary, Allison's third quarter results demonstrate not only the robust demand in our core end markets, but also our long-term plans for growth as we invest in our manufacturing operations and our product portfolio. Our growth opportunities and investments highlight Allison's commitment to providing a diverse array of propulsion solutions that contribute to a reliable, more sustainable future in transportation. This concludes our prepared remarks. Kevin, please open the call for questions.

謝謝你，弗雷德。艾里遜繼續看到對我們的公路產品的強勁需求，特別是我們的 3000 和 4000 系列全自動變速箱，這是由於北美持續的基礎設施支出帶來了前所未有的 VIII 級職業車輛需求。為了滿足這種不斷增長的需求，我們全年對供應鏈和營運進行投資，不僅管理產能，還提高製造吞吐量。上週，我們宣布了進一步計劃，透過投資印度金奈工廠，實現公路產品的長期可持續增長和全球產能增長。我們的印度金奈工廠於 2010 年開業，作為該地區的總部，擴大了我們的業務範圍，同時最初製造零件以支持我們 1,000 和 2,000 系列公路產品的全球生產。在展示了滿足艾里遜一流製造實踐的能力後，該工廠於 2012 年擴大了組裝我們的 1,000 和 2,000 系列變速箱的能力，同時依靠我們印第安納波利斯採購供應鏈提供的組件。我們很高興能夠投資將印度工廠的製造規模擴大近一倍，提高 3,000 和 4,000 系列公路產品組件的製造能力，使我們能夠調整全球生產以滿足區域需求。我們超過 1 億美元的投資將在未來幾年內分攤，其中近一半的項目總支出預計將在 2025 年實現。隨著 2026 年開始營運並於 2027 年全面投產，這項投資將支持我們在北美以外地區的長期成長目標，提高我們的全球產能並節省營運成本。透過這項投資，我們的全球製造業務將恢復到優化的生產水平，透過提高效率來節省成本，同時提高艾里遜的能力，以滿足全球不斷採用自動變速箱所推動的公路產品的未來需求。我們期待隨著專案的進展提供進一步的更新。為了支持我們的寬體轉儲計劃，該計劃代表了 1 億美元的年增量收入機會，在本季度，我們宣布與全球頂級建築設備製造商 Lugan 建立戰略合作夥伴關係並簽署了諒解備忘錄。該諒解備忘錄的簽署是在印尼舉行的客戶乘駕活動中舉行的，該活動展示了鹿港最新的70 噸寬體自卸卡車，該卡車配備了艾里遜創新的4800 寬體自卸系列變速箱。我們與鹿鋼的長期合作夥伴關係對我們在全球採礦業的成功發揮了重要作用，這份諒解備忘錄承諾持續合作和創新，幫助我們透過份額成長和市場擴張實現增量年度收入成長目標。此外，在北美以外的高速公路終端市場，我們最近宣布與印度領先的商用車製造商之一 Ashok Leyland 合作，在印度南部市場推出首款配備全自動變速箱的低地板城市公車。艾里遜的 Torgmatic 系列變速箱將配備在 12 公尺長的柴油公車上，這些公車是專門為殘疾乘客設計的。配備艾里遜的公車將取代目前配備手排變速箱的公車，從而推進該地區的交通運輸，並展示我們在引領北美以外地區向自動化過渡方面所做的努力。我們的輪式防禦業務進一步推動了我們在北美以外公路終端市場的成長。提醒一下，我們國防業務的輪式部分利用我們傳統公路產品的變體，其收入來自國際客戶，流經我們北美以外的公路終端市場。上週，我們重點介紹了眾多版本，這些版本將支援持續成長，因為我們與汽車製造商建立了戰略合作夥伴關係，以支持使用艾里遜專業系列公路變速箱的國際車輪防禦計劃。首先，我們的 4000 系列全自動變速箱的變體被英國國防部拳擊手裝甲車項目選中。德國聯邦裝甲部隊也將從 2025 年開始接收配備艾里遜全自動變速箱的拳擊手車輛。近年來，我們已向澳洲、立陶宛和荷蘭等國家交付了 700 多輛水平對置車。加拿大國防部和羅馬尼亞國防部也將接收配備4000系列變體的輪式防禦車輛。在波蘭，簽署了一份新合同，採購配備艾里遜3000系列全自動變速箱變體的輕型裝甲偵察車。交付時間將持續到 2035 年的未來十年。最後，英國國防部已訂購高機動性卡車，該卡車將採用艾里遜 2000 系列全自動變速箱的變體。正如這些發布所表明的那樣，艾里森在全球國防市場上取得了重大進展，並取得了關鍵項目的勝利。我們期待整個國防工業的進一步發展，因為我們利用我們的商用車輛專業知識和與原始設備製造商的關係，以及數十年經過驗證的可靠性和耐用性，提供廣泛的推進解決方案，滿足戰術輪式車輛的不同應用要求。最後，隨著我們的終端市場的發展，我們仍然致力於提供旨在滿足客戶需求和行業法規的產品組合，無論技術和燃料來源如何。艾里遜全自動變速箱與燃料無關，可與任何燃料源（包括汽油、天然氣、丙烷和氫氣）實現最佳整合。提供耐用性和可靠的性能，以加強永續發展計劃，而不犧牲車隊生產力和效率。為了補償與替代燃料相關的較低功率和較慢的引擎響應，艾里遜的PowerShift 技術和液力變矩器顯著提高了啟動性、駕駛性能和整體生產率，特別是與競爭性手排變速箱和手自排變速箱相比。8月下旬，我們很高興地宣布，全球航運領導者GLS對配備艾里遜的現代Exient氫燃料電池卡車的評估成功完成了30,000公里。自2023年底以來，GLS德國公司已使用配備艾里遜4000系列全自動變速箱的氫燃料電池卡車在科隆大區運送包裹。此外，自 2024 年 3 月起，該卡車已用於科隆和曼海姆之間的長途旅行。艾里遜專利的液力變矩器可在啟動時倍增驅動馬達的扭矩，使車輛能夠使用更小、功率更低的驅動馬達運行，從而最大限度地提高行駛里程和效率，並有助於降低車輛成本。這項開創性的整合體現了艾里遜的替代燃料優勢，也是環保推動技術測試的另一步。為了進一步增強我們以氫作為燃料來源的能力，我們很高興地宣布，我們的4000 系列全自動變速箱還集成到了一輛配備氫內燃機的8 級卡車中，該卡車由西南研究院於9 月在Convec 展示。艾里遜 4000 系列在氫內燃機汽車中的整合展示了內燃機動力總成解決方案在推動產業邁向超低排放方面能夠並且將會發揮的關鍵作用。隨著我們的行業接近 2027 年，技術將發生轉變，以符合 EPA 第三階段排放法規的要求。我們在本季宣布，最近與康明斯合作，將康明斯 B 系列引擎與我們面向公車客車市場的艾里遜 E-Gen Flex 電動混合動力推進解決方案系統進行整合和認證。此次整合將滿足 EPA 第三階段的要求，同時在 2027 年及以後提供可靠的低排放推進解決方案。此外，為了遵守排放標準，我們很高興地宣布升級我們的 B400 和 B3400 XFE 全自動變速箱。隨著非鉸接式客車產業轉向康明斯 X10 引擎以滿足 EPA 第三階段要求，我們的 B400 和 B3400 XFE 型號額定值的提高將使車隊能夠繼續指定艾里遜產品作為首選的推進解決方案。這些整合、合作和技術進步表明，艾里遜致力於提供符合即將出台的排放法規的產品，同時繼續提供差異化價值，支持客戶的營運和永續發展目標。總之，艾里遜第三季的業績不僅證明了我們核心終端市場的強勁需求，也證明了我們在投資製造業務和產品組合時的長期成長計畫。我們的成長機會和投資凸顯了艾里遜致力於提供多樣化的推進解決方案，為交通運輸產業打造可靠、更永續的未來。我們準備好的演講到此結束。凱文，請打開提問電話。

(Operator Instructions) Ian Zaffino, Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）Ian Zaffino，Oppenheimer。

Very good quarter. Quick question on the pricing outlook for next year. I know we're kind of getting towards the end of the year. How are discussions going there? And what type of magnitude do we think we're going to expect? Has the environment changed any of that thinking one way or the other? Thanks.

非常好的季度。關於明年定價前景的快速問題。我知道我們即將迎來年底。那裡的討論進度如何？我們認為我們會期待什麼類型的震級？環境是否以某種方式改變了這種想法？謝謝。

Thanks, Ian. This is Fred. I think as you're aware, about 60% of Revenue in North America on highway. LTAs are coming due and we're in the middle of negotiating these currently. As we've talked about in the past, we continue to deliver a significant amount of value to the end market. Our fully automatics allow the commercial vehicles to operate more efficiently. So the type of things that that were more efficient we save on have continued to inflate up. You know, overall vehicle cost is up, cost of drivers are up, cost of maintaining equipment is up. So all the advantages that, you know, our fully automatic deliver have continued to elevate. And so as we sit here right now, definitely feel well-positioned. We're delivering a significant amount of value. There is very, very strong demand for our product. And, you know, we'll continue the negotiations and, you know, anticipate most of them concluding, you know, probably toward the later half of Q4.

謝謝，伊恩。這是弗雷德。我想您也知道，北美大約 60% 的收入來自高速公路。長期協議即將到期，我們目前正在就這些協議進行談判。正如我們過去談到的，我們繼續為終端市場提供大量價值。我們的全自動裝置使商用車能夠更有效率地運作。因此，我們節省的更有效的東西類型繼續膨脹。你知道，整體車輛成本上升，司機成本上升，維修設備成本上升。因此，您知道，我們的全自動交付的所有優勢都在不斷提升。因此，當我們現在坐在這裡時，絕對感覺自己處於有利位置。我們正在提供大量的價值。對我們產品的需求非常非常強烈。而且，您知道，我們將繼續談判，並且預計大多數談判可能會在第四季下半年結束。

Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you.

好的。非常感謝。謝謝。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

羅布‧韋特海默，Melius 研究中心。

I am sorry to ignore all the good news on announcements and trials and everything else in operations that you talked about. I wanted to focus just on the balance sheet, use of cash, and so on. I mean, you guys have been super clear over the years. You've been very aggressive in buying back shares. I think, if I'm not mistaken, your cash balance is something like 8 or 9 percent of your market cap, and your maturities, I think, are out to 27. So just curious if you're pausing for any reason on aggressiveness on share buyback, if there's anything being contemplated, or how to think about that. Thank you.

我很抱歉忽略了所有有關公告和試驗的好消息以及您談到的運營中的其他所有內容。我只想關注資產負債表、現金使用等等。我的意思是，這些年來你們一直都非常清楚。您在回購股票方面一直非常積極。我想，如果我沒記錯的話，你的現金餘額大約是你市值的 8% 或 9%，而你的期限，我想，是 27 年。因此，我想知道您是否因任何原因暫停積極進取的股票回購，是否正在考慮任何事情，或者如何考慮這一點。謝謝。

Rob, it's Fred. As you mentioned, our capital allocation priorities are pretty clear. It's first funding organic revenue and earnings growth. You see that with the recent announcement we made relative to manufacturing in India. Obviously, we talked about a lot going on in the product development space. Certainly, We've done some acquisitions and continue to look proactively at that, but our primary focus has been returning capital to shareholders. 63% of shares repurchased since we became a public company. We've increased the dividend five consecutive years, bringing it from $0.15 per share per quarter to $0.25 per share per quarter. It's certainly factual that we're holding a little higher cash balance than we have historically. We still are earning a very appropriate return on that. But, you know, long-term goal is to follow our capital allocation priorities and, you know, fund the business and, you know, ultimately return the excess cash to shareholders.

羅布，這是弗雷德。正如您所提到的，我們的資本配置優先順序非常明確。它首先為有機收入和獲利成長提供資金。從我們最近發布的有關印度製造業的公告中可以看出這一點。顯然，我們討論了產品開發領域的許多事情。當然，我們已經進行了一些收購，並繼續積極地進行收購，但我們的主要重點是向股東返還資本。自我們成為上市公司以來，回購了 63% 的股份。我們連續五年提高了股息，從每季每股 0.15 美元增加到每季每股 0.25 美元。事實上，我們持有的現金餘額略高於歷史水準。我們仍然獲得了非常適當的回報。但是，您知道，長期目標是遵循我們的資本配置優先事項，為業務提供資金，並最終將多餘的現金回饋給股東。

Manufacturing capital needs don't seem to be all that large versus what you have. So I assume it's more timing differential. Maybe you have an acquisition you're not going to talk about. but more timing differential on spending that cash. I mean, do you intend to keep a higher-than-average balance long-term, do you think? And I'll stop there. Thanks.

與現有資金相比，製造資本需求似乎並沒有那麼大。所以我認為這是更多的時間差異。也許您有一項不會談論的收購。但花費這些現金的時間差異更大。我的意思是，您認為您打算長期維持高於平均的餘額嗎？我就到此為止。謝謝。

No, I think it really is timing of returning cash to shareholders, Rob.

不，我認為現在確實是向股東返還現金的時候了，羅布。

Perfect. Thank you.

完美的。謝謝。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩，雷蒙詹姆斯。

I just wanted to come back to the $400 million growth opportunity or outgrowth opportunity that you guys have outlined for some time. And it's a little hard to see externally where you're falling on that, but you talked about, I mean, and maybe defense is where we've seen a little bit more traction, but just kind of those four David's

我只是想回到你們已經概述了一段時間的 4 億美元成長機會或衍生機會。很難從外部看出你在這方面的表現，但你談到了，我的意思是，也許防守是我們看到更多牽引力的地方，但就是這四個大衛的

Tim, it's Dave. Let me just try to cover that off for you, and I appreciate the question. So, from a growth initiative perspective, we really highlighted four things. Wide-body mining dump, FRAC-TRAN, the regional haul or Class 8 tractor, DACAB, and, of course, defense, starting with defense, as you mentioned that one specifically. We continue to make very good progress there. I think you could tell by the prepared remarks. I think the team has done an excellent job. Frankly, spreading our customer base outside of the U.S. at this point is obviously focused on working with allies, but we continue to see a tremendous amount of opportunity there. In terms of our overall progress towards our target, that's probably one of the most advanced out of the four at this stage, with, we believe, a fair bit of tailwind to achieve the balance of that Thank you all for joining us today. The focus there, the key, will be some of the newer U.S.-sponsored programs as well as a number of outside North America initiatives. Regional Hall, Class 8, Tractor, Daycab, making, I think, decent progress there, although I would tell you market conditions, as you know, we've talked several times on our calls this year and, frankly, late last year, Some of the softness that you're seeing in the tractor market is having an impact there in terms of just overall volume that's actually achievable at this stage. So the team has done, I think, a very good job securing releases and driving it from a pull perspective with various fleets. But that market will largely, the outcome there will be tied to overall Demand in terms of the tractor market recovering. FracTrend, as you know, was purpose-built and designed for hydraulic fracturing applications. As we've again said several times during the year on other calls, hydraulic frac right now in terms of overall CapEx is rather muted, very disciplined approach by end-users in terms of spend, You know, at least the public comments, the most recent ones from some of those customers would certainly imply no significant recovery in terms of capital spending yet this year and quite possibly for 2025. So, very similar to Regional Haul Class A Tractor, will be a function of the market in terms of overall demand. The testing that we are doing and some of the activity we have, we're very pleased with the performance of. of that particular technology. It's also allowing us to expand into some of the newer applications within hydraulic frack around different energy sources, etc. So I think the team has done a solid job there working with a number of core partners of ours. And finally, with the wide-body mining dump, beyond the prepared comments and some of the releases that we've talked about, This year, that particular initiative I would describe as making very solid progress. Again, some of that being tied to market conditions where you're seeing a level of global demand, as you well know, a bit mixed. But despite those market conditions, the partnerships with the OEMs that we have, they've done quite well in terms of securing market positions. throughout the world. So we're very confident in ultimately achieving that, as well as the other three initiatives. It's really just a function of time and broader market conditions there.

提姆，我是戴夫。讓我試著為你解答這個問題，我很高興你提出這個問題。因此，從成長計畫的角度來看，我們確實強調了四件事。寬體採礦場、FRAC-TRAN、區域運輸或 8 級拖拉機、DACAB，當然還有防禦，從防禦開始，正如您特別提到的那樣。我們繼續在那裡取得非常好的進展。我想你可以從準備好的發言中看出。我認為團隊做得非常出色。坦白說，目前將我們的客戶群擴展到美國以外顯然主要是為了與盟友合作，但我們仍然看到那裡有大量的機會。就我們實現目標的整體進展而言，這可能是現階段四個階段中最先進的階段之一，我們相信，有相當大的推動力來實現平衡。那裡的重點、關鍵將是一些由美國資助的新項目以及一些北美以外的倡議。區域大廳、8 級、拖拉機、日間出租車，我認為在那裡取得了不錯的進展，儘管我會告訴你市場狀況，如你所知，我們今年已經在電話中談過幾次，坦率地說，去年年底，您在拖拉機市場中看到的一些疲軟正在對現階段實際可實現的整體銷售產生影響。因此，我認為，該團隊在確保發布並從拉動的角度與各種車隊一起推動它方面做得非常好。但該市場的結果很大程度上將與拖拉機市場復甦的整體需求掛鉤。如您所知，FracTrend 是專門為水力壓裂應用而建造和設計的。正如我們今年在其他電話會議上多次說過的那樣，就整體資本支出而言，目前水力壓裂相當低調，最終用戶在支出方面採取了非常嚴格的方法，你知道，至少是公眾評論，其中一些客戶的最新報告肯定意味著今年資本支出還沒有顯著復甦，而且很可能在2025 年也不會顯著復甦。因此，與區域運輸 A 級拖拉機非常相似，它將是市場整體需求的函數。我們正在進行的測試和我們進行的一些活動，我們對它們的表現非常滿意。該特定技術的。它還使我們能夠擴展到水力壓裂中圍繞不同能源等的一些較新的應用程式。最後，隨著寬體採礦轉儲，除了準備好的評論和我們討論過的一些版本之外，今年，我將這一特定舉措描述為取得了非常堅實的進展。同樣，其中一些與市場狀況有關，眾所周知，全球需求水平有點複雜。但儘管市場條件如此，我們與原始設備製造商的合作關係在確保市場地位方面做得相當好。全世界。因此，我們對最終實現這一目標以及其他三項措施非常有信心。這實際上只是時間和更廣泛市場條件的函數。

Understood. Thank you, Dave.

明白了。謝謝你，戴夫。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略，摩根士丹利。

Thanks, gentlemen, and I appreciate that you're taking my question. I just wanted to touch base on the fourth quarter a little bit more. It seemed like it's a pretty wide range in terms of the EBITDA implied, of kind of 20% decline year-over-year to potentially flat. It seemed like a pretty wide range. As you think about the level of visibility you have to the fourth quarter, I recognize last quarter, or last earnings call, you talked about holidays and some of those dynamics that, you know, impact your year-over-year as well as a kind of tough comp. But can you just help us understand maybe the range of outcomes? What are the assumptions that, you know, could result in a minus 20 year-over-year versus it being closer to flat at the top end?

謝謝，先生們，我很感激你們回答我的問題。我只是想多談談第四季的情況。就隱含的 EBITDA 而言，範圍似乎相當廣泛，年減 20%，甚至可能持平。範圍似乎相當廣泛。當您考慮第四季度的可見度時，我認識到上個季度或上次財報電話會議，您談到了假期和其中一些動態，您知道，這些動態會影響您的同比以及有點艱難的比較。但你能幫助我們了解結果的範圍嗎？您知道，哪些假設可能會導致年比負 20，而不是在頂端接近持平？

Sure. Sure, Angel. This is Fred. We've highlighted this a couple quarters in a row, but I think it's really important to just think about six or seven fewer workdays for the OEMs to build and, you know, This year, we've averaged $12-13 million in revenue a day. So you play that out, you know, our expectation is that they're not going to build at the levels they built the last couple of years. And they're probably going to go back to the normal seasonality that we've seen, you know, pre-pandemic, you know, 18-19, where Q4 would be soft. So that's really at the starting point. You know, driving, you know, where our midpoint guide is on a sequential basis from a revenue standpoint. And that's, you know, that's really just flowing through from an EBITDA standpoint. You know, we do have, you know, as you look across, we've got engineering, SG&A slightly elevated sequentially, but the biggest driver really is, you know, the top line and You know, and the type of margins that we make. So what would drive the performance higher is clearly, you know, if the OEMs, you know, attempt to work more days, basically working, you know, Saturdays or into the holidays. But at this point, where they are relative to, I think, their total order boards and the softness that you're seeing across line haul, just makes this year stack up a little different than what we've seen the last couple years.

當然。當然，天使。這是弗雷德。我們已經連續幾個季度強調了這一點，但我認為考慮一下 OEM 製造商的生產時間減少六到七個工作日非常重要，而且，你知道，今年我們的平均收入為 12-1300 萬美元一天。因此，你知道，我們的期望是他們不會按照過去幾年的水平進行建設。他們可能會回到我們所看到的正常季節性，你知道，大流行前，你知道，18-19 年，第四季會很疲軟。所以這確實是一個起點。你知道，從收入的角度來看，我們的中點指南是依序排列的。你知道，從 EBITDA 的角度來看，這其實只是流動的。你知道，我們確實有，你知道，正如你所看到的，我們的工程、SG&A 連續略有上升，但最大的驅動因素確實是，你知道，頂線，你知道，以及我們的利潤類型製作。因此，顯然，如果原始設備製造商嘗試增加工作時間，基本上是在周六或假期工作，那麼顯然會推動性能更高。但在這一點上，我認為，他們相對於他們的總訂單板和你所看到的跨線運輸的疲軟，只是讓今年的情況與我們過去幾年看到的有所不同。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

塔米·扎卡里亞，摩根大通。

Very nice quarter. Two questions for you. The first one is about the facility investment in India. I think you mentioned capacity is doubling there. So when you ramp to full production in 2027, what kind of incremental volume do you expect versus what it is right now? I'm trying to understand the size of the incremental sales opportunity from this increased capacity in 2027.

非常好的季度。有兩個問題問你。第一個是關於印度的設施投資。我想你提到那裡的容量翻了一番。那麼，當您在 2027 年全面投產時，與目前的產量相比，您預期的增量是多少？我試著去了解 2027 年產能增加帶來的增量銷售機會有多大。

Tami, good evening. It's Dave. I appreciate the question there. To be clear, when we talk about capacity expansion, we are doubling the manufacturing square footage in India. In terms of capacity, it's focused on our on-highway products, specifically around fabrication for our 3- and 4,000-series products. That capability will allow us to, frankly, meet the growth Q&A Q&A Q&A Q&A Q&A Q&A Q&A Q&A Q&A You know, plus or minus 20% increase. So you figure somewhere in that range of 10 to 20%. Again, depending on availability for all components, et cetera, but we are not expanding capacity for assembly. It's expanding capacity for fabrication for demand outside North America.

塔米，晚上好。是戴夫。我很欣賞那裡的問題。需要明確的是，當我們談論產能擴張時，我們正在將印度的製造面積擴大一倍。在產能方面，它專注於我們的公路產品，特別是我們的 3,000 系列產品的製造。坦白說，這種能力將使我們能夠滿足正負 20% 的成長。所以你算出在 10% 到 20% 的範圍內。同樣，這取決於所有組件的可用性等，但我們不會擴大組裝能力。它正在擴大製造能力以滿足北美以外的需求。

Got it, got it. Okay, that's very helpful. And my second question is, I think you mentioned unprecedented demand in Thank you all for joining us.

明白了，明白了。好的，這非常有幫助。我的第二個問題是，我認為您在《謝謝大家加入我們》中提到了前所未有的需求。

I'd tell you, we don't use the word unprecedented lightly. The amount of demand that we have seen throughout this year, and frankly, it started, as you probably know, the second half of last year, some ramp up there. We have not heard anything from a market perspective, whether that be end users or OEMs. Sensing any level of pullback on overall demand, you know, as we've talked about on prior calls, you had a level of suppressed production because of COVID for a number of reasons. At the same time, you've had this enormous injection of capital into the market driving demand for Vocational products, so whether that be infrastructure spending, other investment initiatives and incentives, they are out there and driving demand. So we are, again, seeing nothing at this point that would tell us that, you know, this is a near-term end in sight. I think quite frankly, at least from the public comments of vehicle OEMs, I think they've indicated across the board very strong demand well into 2025. On the back end of 2025, you also have this issue of, as you know, emissions changes for 2027 and what that potentially does as well in terms of just taking normal demand and accelerating some of that. As we mentioned on the July call, Having said all of that, there's a bit of a governor in this entire process about how much higher it can go, at least when you look at it quarter to quarter, simply because many industry participants are operating at some level of max capacity right now, which is not long-term sustainable, frankly. So you are I think naturally have some level of limit or governor and how much higher it can go on an instantaneous basis. Therefore, one could conclude the cycle gets stretched out further simply because demand can't be currently met. You also have the other governor in the process, which is the amount of capacity that's out there in terms of bodybuilders. and what those lead times are. And much of that is not really tied necessarily to material as much as it is just conversion, which is skilled labor, availability, etc., which we've mentioned many times on our calls and one that we continue to see as a constraint throughout the industry.

我告訴你，我們不會輕易使用「史無前例」這個詞。今年我們看到的需求量，坦白說，正如你可能知道的那樣，從去年下半年開始，需求量增加。我們還沒有聽到任何來自市場角度的消息，無論是最終用戶還是原始設備製造商。正如我們在之前的電話會議中所討論的那樣，感覺到總體需求有任何程度的回落，由於新冠疫情，生產受到了一定程度的抑制。同時，大量資本注入市場，推動了對職業產品的需求，因此無論是基礎設施支出、其他投資措施和激勵措施，它們都在推動需求。因此，我們目前還沒有看到任何跡象表明，這很快就會結束。坦白說，至少從汽車原始設備製造商的公開評論來看，我認為他們已經全面表明了 2025 年的需求非常強勁。到 2025 年底，您還會遇到這樣的問題：如您所知，2027 年的排放量變化以及在滿足正常需求並加速其中一些方面可能產生的影響。正如我們在7 月的電話會議上提到的，話雖如此，在整個過程中，有一點是關於它可以走多高的，至少當你逐季度查看時，僅僅是因為許多行業參與者都在營運坦白說，目前處於某種最大容量水平，這不是長期可持續的。所以我認為你自然有一定程度的限製或調節器，以及它可以在瞬時基礎上升高多少。因此，人們可以得出結論，週期會進一步延長，因為目前無法滿足需求。過程中還有另一個調節器，就是健美運動員的能力量。以及這些交貨時間是多少。其中很大一部分並不一定與材料掛鉤，而只是轉換，即熟練勞動力、可用性等，我們在電話會議中多次提到過這一點，並且我們始終將其視為一種限制。

Agreed. Wonderful. Thank you.

同意。精彩的。謝謝。

Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

凱爾門格斯，花旗集團。

Thanks. I was hoping if you could provide a little more insight into parts performance in the quarter. I noticed that for the first couple quarters had been calling out North America as the area of weakness, but now it's turned to just globally seeing some weakness. So it would be helpful to understand which geographies potentially still seeing some weakness or maybe some recovery and just how to think about parts into next year and what it would take to see parts growth next year and what geographies would be likely to drive that. Thank you.

謝謝。我希望您能提供有關本季零件性能的更多見解。我注意到，在前幾個季度中，北美地區一直被認為是疲軟的地區，但現在卻變成了全球範圍內都出現了一些疲軟的地區。因此，了解哪些地區可能仍會出現一些疲軟或可能出現一些復甦，以及如何考慮明年的零件、明年零件成長需要什麼以及哪些地區可能會推動這一成長，將是有幫助的。謝謝。

Sure, Kyle. This is Fred. You know, really on a year-over-year basis, you know, there wasn't significant movement from parts. When you think about where we are full year, certainly, you know, the first half of 2023 was a pretty challenging comp coming into 2024. You know, as we're looking at, you know, at the balance of the year, you know, Q4 could be down mildly sequentially. And then as you look out into 2025, I think it's still going to be a fairly good year. You're sitting here where 2024 is going to be your second best year on record next to 2023. It's also an end market where we've been able to achieve price as well. So I think the outlook, you know, looks fairly robust rolling into 2025 at this point, but we don't see it returning to the, you know, H1 2023 level because all that pent-up demand's really been satisfied at this point.

當然，凱爾。這是弗雷德。你知道，實際上，與去年同期相比，零件沒有重大變化。當你想到我們全年的情況時，你當然知道，2023 年上半年對 20​​24 年來說是一個相當具有挑戰性的競爭。你知道，正如我們所看到的，在今年餘下的時間裡，第四季可能會連續輕微下降。展望 2025 年，我認為這仍然是相當不錯的一年。2024 年將是繼 2023 年後有史以來第二好的一年。這也是我們能夠實現價格的終端市場。因此，我認為，進入 2025 年，前景看起來相當強勁，但我們認為它不會回到 2023 年上半年的水平，因為此時所有被壓抑的需求確實得到了滿足。

Luke Junk, Baird.

路克垃圾，貝爾德。

Another capacity question for me, specific to Allison's capacity, and just hoping you can frame up the levers that you have to pull on throughput from here, thinking specifically in North America, you know, without adding materially to capacity, I guess, if I look through the lens of defense this quarter, seems like there might be some additional breathing room opportunity, and maybe if you could speak relative to potential pre-buy as we move through later next year into 2026, and just your ability to scale up without adding significantly to overhead, including maybe offloading some incremental volume into that capacity expansion in India as you move through the peak. Thank you.

對我來說，另一個產能問題，具體到艾里森的產能，只是希望你能從這裡制定出必須拉動吞吐量的槓桿，特別是在北美，你知道，在不大幅增加產能的情況下，我想，如果我從本季的防禦角度來看，似乎可能會有一些額外的喘息空間機會，也許您可以談談在我們明年晚些時候進入2026 年時潛在的預購，以及您在沒有情況下擴大規模的能力顯著增加管理費用，包括在度過高峰時可能將一些增量轉移到印度的產能擴張中。謝謝。

That looked good, Dave. I appreciate the question. So, in terms of capacity, as we mentioned, it's not only investment that Allison is doing internally for our own operations. We're also investing in Our suppliers. So it's been a fairly comprehensive program of initiatives throughout our supply base, as well as the internal that we've already talked about. I would certainly offer the comments in terms of what we prepared. It's important to note, and I mentioned this briefly earlier, the industry is specifically around North America on Highway, for instance, running at Very high rates becomes a real challenge from a consumption of capital. So between the pressure on labor as well as just pressure on operations, it really requires a very diligent industry-wide initiative around maintenance, etc. And when you're running at very elevated levels, it really is quite challenging. So we've certainly throughout our Capacity and capital investments, investing in upgrading our equipment as well as some level of automation to address, I think, your point about how you think about an overhead structure. But the fact remains, as I said earlier, there are limits right now that we see in the industry. It still takes all the components to make the vehicle. There are certainly constraints. I do not believe that across the entire industry there is a tremendous amount of motivation to increase capacity meaningfully above where it sits today, simply because it is not efficient. When you start breaking shift schedules, etc., as we mentioned before on calls, it becomes very inefficient. Thank you all for joining us. There are cost savings as well that will be realized from that investment. In terms of defense on the cross-drive side, we have significant capital plans being executed for our cross-drive facility. Some of that capital is actually funded by the U.S. government. It's a contractor-owned, contractor-operated Thank you. Low-volume batch-type manufacturing. Our team over the years has really developed a manufacturing process and system that allows for that type of variability in terms of volume. We're also mitigating some of that as to the earlier question on growth initiatives to grow our defense business specifically in cross-strike. To level out, if you will, production in that facility, which allows us to perform better, but also reduce the cost to the U.S. government in terms of cost-plus type contracts. So a lot of work going on there, but overall, I think capacity, as Fred mentioned earlier, in terms of cap allocation, we are investing in growing the business organically. Thank you. Next question is coming from

看起來不錯，戴夫。我很欣賞這個問題。因此，就產能而言，正如我們所提到的，艾里森不僅在內部為我們自己的營運進行投資。我們也投資於我們的供應商。因此，這是一個相當全面的計劃，涵蓋我們的供應基地以及我們已經討論過的內部計劃。我當然會根據我們準備的內容提出評論。值得注意的是，我之前簡要地提到過，該行業特別是在北美的高速公路上，例如，以非常高的速度運行成為資本消耗的真正挑戰。因此，在勞動力壓力和營運壓力之間，確實需要在維護等方面採取非常勤奮的全行業主動行動。因此，我們肯定會進行產能和資本投資，投資升級我們的設備以及一定程度的自動化，以解決您關於如何看待管理費用結構的觀點。但事實仍然是，正如我之前所說，我們目前在該行業看到的限制。製造車輛仍然需要所有零件。肯定有限制。我不認為整個產業有巨大的動力將產能大幅提高到目前的水平之上，只是因為效率不高。當你開始打破輪班安排等時，正如我們之前在電話中提到的那樣，它會變得非常低效。感謝大家加入我們。該投資還可以節省成本。在跨驅動器方面的防禦方面，我們正在為跨驅動器設施執行重大資本計劃。其中一些資本實際上是由美國政府資助的。這是承包商擁有、承包商經營的謝謝。小批量批量製造。多年來，我們的團隊確實開發了一種製造流程和系統，可以實現這種類型的體積變化。我們也減輕了先前關於成長計畫的一些問題，以發展我們的國防業務，特別是在交叉打擊方面。如果你願意的話，可以平衡該工廠的生產，這使我們能夠表現得更好，同時也降低了美國政府在成本加成型合約方面的成本。因此，那裡正在進行大量工作，但總的來說，我認為正如弗雷德之前提到的，就上限分配而言，我們正在投資有機成長業務。謝謝。下一個問題來自

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

傑瑞·雷維奇，高盛。

I'm wondering if I just ask two questions. One, on EPA 2027, with the increase in trucks, you know, you folks have a higher value proposition and higher cost trucks. And I'm wondering, can you comment on whether you have an opportunity to increase your penetration rates on any vacations with EPA 27, given that backdrop? And then separately, you know, just to continue the Class A straight truck Conversation. Can you just talk about your level of confidence in the sustainability of demand? Because we're down to, you know, four and a half months of backlog. We had peaked at 10 or 11 months. And so I guess when we've seen other capital goods product lines have supply outpaced demand, you know, what gives you confidence that we're not going to hit that same point here, you know, as we look out three, four, five months, especially given where Class H trade inventories are.

我想知道我是否只問兩個問題。第一，根據 EPA 2027，隨著卡車數量的增加，你們知道，你們擁有更高的價值主張和更高的卡車成本。我想知道，在這種背景下，您能否評論一下您是否有機會透過 EPA 27 提高任何假期的滲透率？然後分開，你知道，只是為了繼續 A 級直卡車對話。您能談談您對需求永續性的信心程度嗎？因為我們已經積壓了四個半月的訂單。我們在 10 或 11 個月時達到了頂峰。所以我想當我們看到其他資本貨物產品線的供應超過需求時，你知道，是什麼讓你有信心我們不會在這裡達到同樣的點，你知道，當我們關註三、四個時，五個月，特別是考慮到H 類貿易庫存的情況。

Jerry, it's Dave, appreciate the question. In terms of EPA 2027, I think it's fair to say still quite a few questions out there in terms of exactly how that's all gonna be implemented. The position of the OEM's portfolios, as you know, continues to evolve in reaction to that. We think of things in the context of we're always trying to grow our position in terms of penetration rates and focus on the areas, as Fred mentioned earlier, in terms of our value proposition. To answer your question, I'm not sure penetration over the longer term is going to be necessarily impacted. I would say, to your point on vehicle values, I think it's fair to say that the current push on Class 8 straight truck in terms of vocational, we are certainly, I think, very much strongly demonstrating the value of our fully automatic technology in that space. The team has done that for well over a decade or two at this point to reach the positions that we have. We continue to try to grow that. But overall, I think we're very pleased going into 2027 with the portfolio that we have. We're well-aligned to work with at least what's been developed and, I would say, certainly presented to the market in terms of a number of different alternative energy sources, etc., so we feel very good about that. And I'll let Fred cover that Class H straight truck question.

傑瑞，我是戴夫，謝謝你的提問。就 EPA 2027 而言，我認為可以公平地說，關於具體如何實施，仍然存在不少問題。如您所知，原始設備製造商 (OEM) 產品組合的地位將隨之不斷發展。我們總是在努力提高我們在滲透率方面的地位並專注於這些領域的背景下思考問題，正如弗雷德之前提到的，就我們的價值主張而言。為了回答你的問題，我不確定長期的滲透率是否一定會受到影響。我想說的是，就您關於車輛價值的觀點而言，我認為可以公平地說，目前在職業方面對 8 級直列卡車的推動，我認為，我們當然非常有力地展示了我們全自動技術在那個空間。到目前為止，該團隊已經這樣做了十多年，才達到了我們所擁有的地位。我們繼續努力發展這一點。但總的來說，我認為我們對 2027 年的投資組合感到非常滿意。我們已經做好了準備，至少可以與已經開發的產品合作，而且我想說的是，當然可以在許多不同的替代能源等方面向市場展示，所以我們對此感覺非常好。我會讓 Fred 回答 H 級直卡車問題。

Jerry, I mean, it's... Everything we see and hear shows no signs of it slowing down. The OEMs have been pretty clear. The demand for our product is clearly unprecedented. We had, last week, ACT Research in here. One thing that they were highlighting was really where the stimulus programs are in still very early innings. Thinking about the CHIPS Act, IRA, Maybe only 20% in at this point. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, about 50% in. So there's still a significant amount of stimulus money in the U.S. that's out there to ultimately be funded. So it's obviously tough to predict, and we've got the pre-buy potential in 26, and maybe even into 25. I think those are Dave's earlier comments. There is, I think, a real question of how much higher can it go because, you know, everybody in that vocational space is constrained at this point. You know, component suppliers, bodybuilders, but the demand is clearly there with, I mean, just absolutely no signs of slowing down.

傑瑞，我是說，這是...我們看到和聽到的一切都沒有顯示出放緩的跡象。OEM廠商已經說得很清楚了。對我們產品的需求顯然是前所未有的。上週，我們在這裡進行了 ACT 研究。他們強調的一件事是刺激計劃確實還處於早期階段。考慮一下《CHIPS 法案》、IRA，目前可能只有 20%。基礎建設投資和就業法案，約佔 50%。因此，美國仍有大量刺激資金最終可以獲得資助。所以這顯然很難預測，我們的預購潛力是 26 部，甚至可能是 25 部。我認為這些是戴夫之前的評論。我認為，一個真正的問題是它能走多高，因為，你知道，這個職業領域的每個人在這一點上都受到限制。你知道，零件供應商、車身製造商，但需求顯然是存在的，我的意思是，絕對沒有放緩的跡象。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. We've reached the end of our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Dave for any further closing comments.

謝謝。我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將發言權交還給戴夫，以徵求更多的結論。

Thank you, Kevin. And thank you for your continued interest in Allison and for participating on today's call. Enjoy your evening.

謝謝你，凱文。感謝您對艾里森的持續關注並參加今天的電話會議。享受你的夜晚。

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。我們感謝您今天的參與。