Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Allison Transmission's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Paul and I will be your conference operator today.

午安.感謝您的支持。歡迎參加艾里遜變速箱 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫保羅，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Jackie Bolles, Executive Director of Treasury and Investor relations. Please go ahead, Jackie.

現在，我想將會議交給財務和投資者關係執行董事 Jackie Bolles。請繼續，Jackie。

Thank you, Paul. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for our fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me this afternoon are Dave Graziosi, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer; and Fred Bohley, our Chief Operating Officer, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer.

謝謝你，保羅。下午好，感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天下午與我一起的有我們的董事長兼執行長 Dave Graziosi；以及我們的營運長、財務長兼財務主管 Fred Bohley。

As a reminder, this conference call's webcast and this afternoon's presentation are available on the Investor Relations section of allisonintransmission.com. A replay of this call will be available through February 25.

提醒一下，本次電話會議的網路直播和今天下午的簡報可在 allisonintransmission.com 的投資者關係部分找到。本次通話的重播將持續到 2 月 25 日。

As noted on slide 2 of the presentation, many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, including those set forth in our fourth-quarter 2024 earnings press release and our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023.

正如簡報的第二張投影片中所述，我們今天的許多評論都包含基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受已知和未知風險的影響，包括我們 2024 年第四季財報新聞稿和截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表年度報告中所述風險。

Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those that we express today. In addition, as noted on slide 3 of the presentation, some of our remarks today contain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the SEC. You can find reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures attachments an appendix to the presentation, and to our fourth-quarter 2024 earnings press release.

如果這些風險或不確定性中的一個或多個成為現實，或者基本假設或估計被證明不正確，實際結果可能與我們今天表達的結果有重大差異。此外，正如簡報第 3 張投影片中所述，我們今天的一些評論包含美國證券交易委員會定義的非 GAAP 財務指標。您可以在簡報的附錄附件以及我們的 2024 年第四季財報新聞稿中找到非 GAAP 財務指標與最可比較 GAAP 指標的對帳。

Today's call is set to end at 5:45 PM Eastern Time. In order to maximize participation opportunities on the call, we'll take just one question from each analyst. Please turn to slide 4 of the presentation for the call agenda.

今天的電話會議將於美國東部時間下午 5:45 結束。為了最大限度地增加電話會議的參與機會，我們只會回答每位分析師的一個問題。請翻到簡報的第 4 張投影片查看通話議程。

During today's call, Dave Graziosi will review highlights from our full-year 2024 results. Fred Bohley will then review our fourth-quarter 2024 financial performance and introduce full-year 2025 guidance. Dave will then close with an update on recent announcements across our business prior to commencing the Q&A.

在今天的電話會議中，Dave Graziosi 將回顧我們 2024 年全年業績的亮點。隨後，Fred Bohley 將回顧我們 2024 年第四季的財務表現並介紹 2025 年全年指引。在開始問答環節之前，戴夫將介紹我們業務的最新公告。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

現在，我將把電話轉給戴夫。

Thank you, Jackie. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us. I would like to start by thanking the Allison team and all of our partners for their support in making 2024 another record year as we achieved all-time high net sales of $3.2 billion. In our North America On-Highway end market, demand for our 3000 and 4,000 Series products drove full-year net sales to a record $1.8 billion, an increase of 15% from 2023.

謝謝你，傑基。下午好，感謝您加入我們。首先，我要感謝艾里遜團隊和所有合作夥伴的支持，使 2024 年成為另一個創紀錄的一年，我們實現了 32 億美元的歷史最高淨銷售額。在我們的北美公路終端市場，對我們的 3000 和 4000 系列產品的需求推動全年淨銷售額達到創紀錄的 18 億美元，比 2023 年增長 15%。

We have invested in our operations and supply chain to increase output for these products and look forward to another notable year in 2025 as we anticipate ongoing US infrastructure spending to drive continued strong demand for Class 8 vocational vehicles. Our full-year performance was also driven by the execution of growth initiatives in our Defense and Outside North America On-Highway and markets. In our Defense end market full-year net sales increased 28% year over year to a decade high $212 million.

我們已對營運和供應鏈進行了投資，以增加這些產品的產量，並期待 2025 年成為另一個值得注意的一年，因為我們預計美國持續的基礎設施支出將推動對 8 級職業車輛的持續強勁需求。我們的全年業績也得益於國防和北美以外公路市場的成長計畫的實施。在我們的國防終端市場，全年淨銷售額年增 28%，達到十年來最高水準的 2.12 億美元。

Through the expansion of our product offerings and heightened geopolitical uncertainty across the world, we expect continued growth in this end market. Also contributing to our full year performance in 2024, we achieved record net sales of $493 million in our Outside North America On-Highway end market.

透過擴大我們的產品供應和增加全球地緣政治不確定性，我們預計該終端市場將繼續成長。我們在北美以外公路終端市場實現了創紀錄的 4.93 億美元的淨銷售額，這也為我們 2024 年全年業績做出了貢獻。

Our wide-bodied mining dump truck initiative representing $100 million of incremental annual revenue opportunity continues to drive growth in this and market. We are pleased with the progress of this initiative ending 2024 with realization of around half of the opportunity.

我們的寬體採礦自卸卡車計畫代表每年 1 億美元的增量收入機會，將繼續推動該市場的成長。我們對這項計劃的進展感到滿意，該計劃將於 2024 年結束，實現約一半的機會。

Finally, in addition to the significant top-line performance in 2024, Allison's full-year earnings per share increased to a company record diluted EPS of $8.31 of 12% from 2023. We look forward to continued growth in our business while increasing earnings and maintaining our well-defined capital allocation priorities.

最後，除了 2024 年顯著的營收表現外，艾利森全年每股收益還將增至公司創紀錄的 8.31 美元稀釋每股收益，較 2023 年增長 12%。我們期待業務持續成長，同時增加收益並保持明確的資本配置重點。

Thank you. I'll now turn the call over to Fred.

謝謝。我現在將電話轉給弗雷德。

Thank you, Dave. Following Dave's full-year 2024 results comments, I'll discuss our fourth quarter financial performance and introduce our full-year 2025 guidance.

謝謝你，戴夫。在戴夫對 2024 年全年業績發表評論之後，我將討論我們第四季度的財務業績並介紹我們 2025 年全年的指導。

Please turn to slide 5 of the presentation for the Q4 2024 performance summary. Year-over-year net sales increased 3% from the same period in 2023 to fourth-quarter record of $796 million. The increase in year-over-year results was led by a 10% increase in the North American On-Highway end market principally driven by strength and demand for Class 8 vocational vehicles and price increases on certain products.

請翻到簡報的第 5 張投影片，查看 2024 年第四季業績摘要。淨銷售額較 2023 年同期年增 3%，達到第四季創紀錄的 7.96 億美元。業績年增率主要得益於北美公路終端市場 10% 的成長，這主要得益於 8 級專業車輛的強勁需求以及某些產品的價格上漲。

Year-by-year net sales were further improved by a 5% increase in net sales in the Service Parts, Support, Equipment and Other end market, principally driven by price increases.

服務零件、支援、設備和其他終端市場的淨銷售額年增 5%，這主要得益於價格上漲。

Finally, year over year results were improved by an 8% increase in net sales in the Defense end market. The increase was principally driven by increased demand for tracked vehicle applications. Gross profit for the quarter was $373 million, an increase of $2 million from $371 million for the same period in 2023.

最後，國防終端市場的淨銷售額較去年同期成長了 8%。這一增長主要是由於履帶式車輛應用需求的增加。本季毛利為 3.73 億美元，較 2023 年同期的 3.71 億美元增加 200 萬美元。

The increase in gross profit was principally driven by price increases on certain products partially offset by higher manufacturing expense. Net income for the quarter was $175 million an increase of $5 million from $170 million for the same period in 2023. The increase was principally driven by lower selling, general and administrative expenses, lower interest expense net, and higher gross profit partially offset by unfavorable foreign exchange.

毛利的成長主要是由於某些產品價格上漲，但製造費用的增加部分抵消了這一增長。本季淨收入為 1.75 億美元，較 2023 年同期的 1.7 億美元增加 500 萬美元。成長的主要原因是銷售費用、一般及行政開支下降、利息淨支出下降以及毛利增加，但部分被不利的外匯匯率所抵銷。

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $270 million compared to $277 million for the same period in 2023. Diluted earnings per share increased 5% year over year to $2.01. The increase was driven by higher net income and lower total diluted shares outstanding. A detailed overview of our net sales by end market and Q4 2024 financial performance can be found on slide 6 and 7 of the presentation.

本季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.7 億美元，而 2023 年同期為 2.77 億美元。每股攤薄收益年增 5% 至 2.01 美元。成長的原因是淨收入增加和流通在外稀釋股份總數減少。簡報的第 6 張和第 7 張投影片中可以找到我們按終端市場劃分的淨銷售額和 2024 年第四季財務業績的詳細概述。

Please turn to slide 8 of the presentation for the Q4 2024 cash flow performance summary. Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $136 million compared to $186 million for the same period in 2023. The increase was driven by lower net cash provided by operating activities and higher capital expenditures.

請翻到簡報的第 8 張投影片，查看 2024 年第四季現金流績效摘要。本季調整後的自由現金流為 1.36 億美元，而 2023 年同期為 1.86 億美元。成長的原因是經營活動提供的淨現金減少和資本支出增加。

In 2024 we generated $658 million of adjusted free cash flow. A portion of this excess cash was used to deleverage the business as we paid down over $100 million of existing term loan debt. We ended the year with a net leverage ratio of 1.4 times, $781 million of cash, and $744 million of available revolving credit facility commitments. We continue to maintain a flexible, long-dated and covenant-like debt structure with our earliest maturity due in October 2027.

2024 年，我們產生了 6.58 億美元的調整後自由現金流。我們用這部分過剩現金來降低業務槓桿，償還了超過 1 億美元的現有定期貸款債務。截至年底，我們的淨槓桿率為 1.4 倍，現金為 7.81 億美元，可用循環信貸額度承諾為 7.44 億美元。我們持續維持靈活、長期且契約式的債務結構，最早到期日為 2027 年 10 月。

In addition to repayment of debt, we continue to return cash to shareholders through our quarterly dividend. Our current quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share has increased 67% over the last five years. We also maintained our focus on returning cash to shareholders through our share repurchase program, ending 2024 with over $500 million of authorization remaining. Under the repurchase program, we repurchased over 1% of our outstanding shares in the fourth quarter, bringing the total repurchase amount in 2024 to over $250 million.

除了償還債務外，我們還繼續透過季度股息向股東返還現金。我們目前的季度股息為每股 0.25 美元，在過去五年中成長了 67%。我們也持續致力於透過股票回購計畫向股東返還現金，到 2024 年底，剩餘授權金額將超過 5 億美元。根據回購計劃，我們在第四季度回購了超過 1% 的流通股，使 2024 年的總回購金額超過 2.5 億美元。

For the year we repurchased shares at a weighted average price of $88 per share. Since the IPO in 2012, we have repurchased over 63% of our outstanding shares. We continue to view share repurchases as an opportunistic and appropriate use of cash at current share prices. Even after our outperformance in 2024, we believe Allison is deserving of a valuation that is more aligned with other publicly traded premier industrial assets, given our robust and stable cash generation in addition to our market position and comparative margin performance.

今年我們以每股 88 美元的加權平均價格回購了股票。自 2012 年 IPO 以來，我們已回購了超過 63% 的流通股。我們仍然認為，在當前股價下，股票回購是一種機會主義且適當的現金使用方式。即使在 2024 年我們的表現優異之後，我們相信，鑑於我們強勁而穩定的現金產生能力以及我們的市場地位和相對利潤率表現，艾利森值得獲得與其他公開交易的優質工業資產更一致的估值。

We're committed to continuing our long-standing history of delivering premier products that are recognized by name and desired by customers for quality, reliability, durability, and we are excited to further grow our business while continuing to deliver our brand promise to provide the most reliable and valued propulsion solutions in the world.

我們致力於延續我們長期以來提供優質產品的歷史，這些產品以其品質、可靠性和耐用性而受到客戶的認可和期望，我們很高興進一步發展我們的業務，同時繼續履行我們的品牌承諾，提供世界上最可靠和最有價值的推進解決方案。

With that being said, please turn to slide 9 of the presentation for our initial 2025 guidance. For 2025, Allison expects net sales to be in the range of $3.2 billion to $3.3 billion. At the midpoint, we are guiding to another record revenue year driven by 400 basis points of price realization across our full business, increased demand for track vehicle applications and robust North American vocational demand. In addition to Allison's 2025 net sales guidance, we anticipate net income in the range of $735 million to $785 million.

話雖如此，請翻到簡報的第 9 張投影片，了解我們 2025 年的初步指導。艾利森預計，2025 年淨銷售額將在 32 億美元至 33 億美元之間。在中期，我們預計今年的收入將再創紀錄，這得益於我們整個業務的價格實現 400 個基點、軌道車輛應用需求的增加以及北美職業需求的強勁。除了艾里遜 2025 年淨銷售額預期外，我們還預期淨收入將在 7.35 億美元至 7.85 億美元之間。

Adjust EBITDA in the range of $1.170 billion to $1.230 billion. Net cash provided by operating activities in the range of $800 million to $860 million. Capital expenditures in the range of $165million to $175 million and adjusted free cash flow in the range of $635 million to $685 million.

調整EBITDA在11.70億美元至12.30億美元範圍內。經營活動提供的淨現金在 8 億至 8.6 億美元之間。資本支出在 1.65 億美元至 1.75 億美元之間，調整後的自由現金流在 6.35 億美元至 6.85 億美元之間。

Thank you, and I'll now turn the call over to Dave for an update on recent announcements.

謝謝，現在我將把電話轉給戴夫，讓他介紹最近的公告。

Thank you, Fred. Last month we announced the debut of our 6000 Series transmissions specifically for wide body dump or WBD applications originally designed for heavy duty vehicles including off-highway trucks, oil field rigs, and cranes. This transmission now supports higher tonnage WBD trucks, reaching a maximum gross vehicle weight of up to 136 metric tonnes.

謝謝你，弗雷德。上個月，我們宣布推出專為寬體自卸或 WBD 應用而設計的 6000 系列變速箱，該系列變速箱最初設計用於重型車輛，包括非公路卡車、油田鑽機和起重機。該變速箱現可支援更高噸位的 WBD 卡車，最大車輛總重量可達 1​​36 公噸。

Accompanying this release, we also announced our partnership with XCMG, one of the largest construction machinery manufacturers in the world, for the release of our TerraTran in their XG110 WBD trucks, an upgraded variant of our proven 4000 series transmission. The TerraTran is purpose built for global construction and mining markets.

伴隨此次發布，我們也宣布與全球最大的建築機械製造商之一徐工集團建立合作夥伴關係，在其 XG110 WBD 卡車中推出 TerraTran，這是我們久經考驗的 4000 系列變速箱的升級版。TerraTran 專為全球建築和採礦市場打造。

As the WBD truck market continues to expand and evolve, Allison is committed to continually updating our products to provide customers with their broader portfolio of solutions based on their unique needs. The release of our 6625 WBD transmission and introduction of the TerraTran into the same segment marks yet another milestone in support of our realization of our $100 million of incremental annual revenue opportunity.

隨著 WBD 卡車市場的不斷擴大和發展，艾里遜致力於不斷更新我們的產品，以便根據客戶的獨特需求提供更廣泛的解決方案組合。我們的 6625 WBD 變速箱的發布和 TerraTran 進入同一細分市場的引入標誌著我們實現 1 億美元增量年收入機會的又一個里程碑。

As discussed in my opening remarks, our Defense end market continues to drive growth in our business as we capitalize on the Defense upcycle, both internationally through increased Defense investments globally amidst geopolitical uncertainties and domestically through opportunities with the United States modernization programs, as well as increased international sales through the US Department of Defense.

正如我在開場白中所討論的，隨著我們利用國防上升週期，我們的國防終端市場繼續推動業務增長，無論是在國際上，通過在地緣政治不確定性的情況下增加全球國防投資，還是在國內，通過美國現代化計劃的機會，以及通過美國國防部增加國際銷售。

Today, I would like to highlight the recent announcement that Allison was awarded a contract for over $80 million to provide upgraded and new X1100 transmissions supporting Abrams Main Battle Tank variants used by the United States Army as well as foreign military sales customers. Allison has long supported the US Army and its close partners and is proud to be part of the world's premier main battle tank. We look forward to continuing our partnerships in support of these customers in the decades to come.

今天，我想強調一下最近宣布的消息：艾利森公司獲得了一份價值超過 8000 萬美元的合同，為美國陸軍以及外國軍售客戶使用的艾布拉姆斯主戰坦克提供升級版和新型 X1100 變速箱。艾利森長期以來一直支持美國陸軍及其親密合作夥伴，並為成為世界頂級主戰坦克的一部分而感到自豪。我們期待在未來幾十年繼續與這些客戶合作並為其提供支援。

In closing, 2024 was a solid year of top-line records and a demonstration of Allison's commitment to our capital allocation priorities. Our 2024 results and our 2025 guidance demonstrate the power of Allison as we continue to capitalize on opportunities in our end markets and make strides towards the realization of our growth initiatives.

總而言之，2024 年是業績創下佳績的堅實一年，也反映了艾利森對資本配置重點的承諾。我們的 2024 年業績和 2025 年指引彰顯了艾里遜的強大實力，我們將繼續利用終端市場的機遇，大步邁向實現成長計畫。

This concludes our prepared remarks. Paul, please open the call for questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。保羅，請開始提問。

Thank you. Now, I'll be conducting a question-and-answer session.

謝謝。現在我將進行問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塔米·扎卡里亞。

Hey, thank you so much. So my question is on the North America On-Highway guide. I think you're expecting 1% growth. Could you give us some color on how much of volume versus price embedded in there? The reason I ask, I think I heard you say pricing for the enterprise would be about 400 basis points. So just trying to understand what that could look like for North America On-Highway.

嘿，非常感謝。我的問題是關於北美公路指南的。我認為您預期增長率為 1%。您能否向我們詳細說明其中的數量與價格的關係？我之所以會問這個問題，是因為我認為您說過企業的定價大約是 400 個基點。所以只是想了解這對北美公路來說意味著什麼。

Hi Tami, this is Fred. So you're correct in our prepared remarks. We talked about 400 basis points of price across our business. We've secured price across all the end markets. Certainly, as we've talked about previously, a large portion of the North American On-Highway markets did have expiring long-term agreements, and we've talked about the value that we've delivered. And we have executed agreements with all those customers.

你好，塔米，我是弗雷德。所以你對我們的準備發言是正確的。我們討論了整個業務的 400 個基點的價格。我們已經確保了所有終端市場的價格。當然，正如我們之前談到的，北美公路市場的很大一部分確實有即將到期的長期協議，而且我們已經談到了我們已經提供的價值。我們已經與所有這些客戶簽訂了協議。

What I would tell you is that traditional long-term agreements been between three to five years, these have leaned toward the shorter duration. And they have positive pricing in each year of the contract. Again though, as far as getting into specifics as to how much pricing we got in each market, we're going to avoid that, but broad-based across all end markets, but certainly North America On-Highway being a driver.

我想告訴你的是，傳統的長期協議期限為三至五年，而這些協議的期限已經趨向於較短。並且他們在合約的每一年都有積極的定價。不過，就我們在每個市場獲得多少定價的具體細節而言，我們將避免這種情況，而是廣泛覆蓋所有終端市場，但北美公路市場肯定是一個驅動因素。

So when you think of our guide, as you mentioned, up 1%, we certainly have the volume, the expectation down. year over year, primarily driven by medium [duty]. I think that's consistent with the vehicle OEMs that have announced in front of us. Their views as well as certain engine manufacturer and then industry forecasters as well.

因此，當您考慮我們的指南時，正如您所提到的，上漲 1%，我們肯定會有交易量和預期下降。年比來看，主要受中等[責任]。我認為這與我們之前宣布的汽車原始設備製造商一致。他們的觀點以及某些引擎製造商和產業預測者的觀點也是如此。

Understood. Thank you, very helpful.

明白了。謝謝，非常有幫助。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Oh thank you. Maybe, Fred, just to continue on that that thread. Those LTSA historically have had other components to them, obviously, beyond pricing. I'm curious, obviously, I not the ideal for to get into individual contractual, agreements. But are there other things beyond, whether it's content or share or other things that you would highlight that elements of these contracts obviously a very unique time in what the market has gone through, just given the tightness of supplies.

噢，謝謝。也許，弗雷德，只是繼續那個話題。從歷史上看，這些 LTSA 除了定價之外，顯然還有其他組成部分。我很好奇，顯然，我並不適合簽訂個人合約、協議。但是，除了內容、份額或其他因素之外，還有其他因素嗎？您是否會強調這些合約的要素，顯然，在市場經歷的非常特殊的時期，考慮到供應緊張的情況。

I'm just curious if there are other things that you would flag or highlight that, as we think about kind of what these contracts may entail beyond just what we know about as you just mentioned one-year pricing. Anything else you would flag there. Thank you.

我只是好奇，當我們思考這些合約可能包含的內容（除了我們所知的您剛才提到的一年期定價之外）時，您是否還會標記或強調其他事項。您也可以在此處標記其他任何內容。謝謝。

Sure, Tim. It's Fred again. There are a lot of different components. I think with what's topical in the news, probably important to highlight that the vast majority of these contracts have commodity pass throughs, both up and down.

當然，提姆。又是弗雷德。有很多不同的組件。我認為，根據新聞中的熱門話題，可能有必要強調的是，絕大多數此類合約都有商品轉手，包括上漲和下跌。

If you think about our exposure to aluminum and steel, about two-thirds of the aluminum is passed through through long-term contracts with our OEM customers and closer to 80 -- sorry, about two-thirds of steel and closer to 80% of aluminum is passed through through long-term contracts. But there are certain, other components, within those agreements that are, I think, advantageous to both us and our OEM customers.

如果你考慮我們對鋁和鋼的敞口，大約三分之二的鋁是通過與我們的 OEM 客戶簽訂的長期合同來轉移的，而接近 80 — — 抱歉，大約三分之二的鋼和接近 80% 的鋁是通過長期合同來轉移的。但我認為，這些協議中還有一些其他內容對我們和我們的 OEM 客戶都有好處。

Kyle Menges, Citi Group.

花旗集團的 Kyle Menges。

Thanks. I was hoping if you could dive a little bit deeper into just what you're embedding in your North American On-Highway volume assumptions for 2025. Sounds like if total sales up one and there's at least 400 bps of pricing within that, would just be helpful to hear just kind of roughly what you're thinking about medium duty versus Class 8 straight trucks and those volumes up or down for 2025. Thank you.

謝謝。我希望您能更深入地闡述您對 2025 年北美公路運輸量假設的具體內容。聽起來，如果總銷量上升一個檔次，並且其中的價格至少有 400 個基點，那麼大致了解一下您對中型卡車與 8 級直列卡車的看法以及 2025 年的銷量是上升還是下降會很有幫助。謝謝。

Hey, Kyle, it's Dave. Thank you for the question. So it's pretty straightforward. As Fred mentioned, we're certainly assuming medium duty, softer market versus '24, I think to Fred's comment as well. A number of the OEMs have already publicly reported the third-party forecasting sources as well align with that. There's some questions around overall inventories.

嘿，凱爾，我是戴夫。謝謝你的提問。所以很簡單。正如弗雷德所提到的，我們當然假設市場處於中等水平，與 24 年相比市場更加疲軟，我認為弗雷德的評論也是如此。許多原始設備製造商已經公開報告了第三方預測來源並與之保持一致。關於整體庫存存在一些疑問。

They've certainly improved in terms of medium duty. Although I think broadly speaking, bodybuilders continue to be a bit of a constraint, but the medium duty market would seem to be well-supplied versus a few years ago in terms of overall market position. So we've certainly reflected that in our guidance relative to vocational, as I mentioned in our prepared comments, continue to expect a relatively robust demand there.

他們在中型任務方面確實取得了進展。儘管我認為從廣義上講，健美運動員仍然受到一些限制，但從整體市場地位來看，中型市場與幾年前相比似乎供應充足。因此，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們在對職業的指導中確實反映了這一點，我們繼續預計那裡的需求會相對強勁。

As we've had some questions on our third-quarter call, the conditions really haven't changed as far as we're aware, and again I get back to others' comments here recently in terms of their thoughts on '25. We don't at this point, expect a significant change in terms of overall capacity numbers for the industry in terms of vocational.

正如我們在第三季電話會議上提出的一些問題一樣，據我們所知，情況確實沒有改變，而且我最近再次回顧了其他人對 25 年的看法。目前，我們預計該行業的職業整體容量數量不會發生重大變化。

I think as we've talked about several times, those constraints continue to be -- we believe in the broader market and again back to in terms of what bodybuilders are able to take, but inventory position on vocational certainly different than what medium duty is currently positioned at. So I'd say, overall, a short answer, medium duty, softer year-over-year vocational, more or less the same of what we've seen here over the last 12 to 18 months.

我認為，正如我們多次談到的那樣，這些限制仍然存在——我們相信更廣闊的市場，並再次回到健美運動員所能承受的程度，但職業庫存狀況肯定與中等負荷目前的狀況不同。所以我想說，總的來說，簡短的回答是，中等強度，職業同比疲軟，或多或少與我們在過去 12 到 18 個月中看到的情況相同。

That's helpful, thank you.

這很有幫助，謝謝。

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

Hi, thanks. In 2024, you used a bit of cash on debt pay down. I wonder if you could comment. Do you expect to flow all the cash out to shareholders and forms of dividend and repurchases in '25? Was there anything different that happened in '24? And then any comments on 2025 cash flow guidance? Is there any additional investment or anything different going on there? Thank you.

你好，謝謝。2024 年，你用了一些現金來償還債務。我不知道您是否可以發表評論。您是否預計在 25 年將所有現金流出給股東並以股息和回購的形式？'24 年發生了什麼不同的事情嗎？那麼對 2025 年現金流指導有什麼評論嗎？那裡有額外的投資或有什麼不同的事情發生嗎？謝謝。

Yeah, Rob. This is Fred. As you mentioned, we did pay down $100 million of our term loan with that refinancing in the first quarter of 2024. At this point, there's really nothing we need to do from the debt financing. The nearest maturity is October of 2027. Those are callable at par, beginning in the third quarter October, in effect.

是的，羅布。這是弗雷德。正如您所說，我們確實在 2024 年第一季透過再融資償還了 1 億美元的定期貸款。目前，我們確實不需要透過債務融資來做任何事情。最近的到期日是2027年10月。從第三季十月開始，這些債券可按面額贖回。

But relative to the capital allocation, I mean the playbook's the same, first and foremost, as you know, we're going to fund the business for organic revenue, earnings growth, new product and technology development. We're certainly always looking from a strategic acquisition, is there something that's better inside of Allison than out, but we're always focused on returning capital to shareholders.

但相對於資本配置，我的意思是劇本是一樣的，首先，如你所知，我們將為有機收入、獲利成長、新產品和技術開發提供資金。我們當然總是從策略性收購的角度來考慮，艾利森內部是否有比外部更好的東西，但我們始終專注於向股東返還資本。

With the dividend now, we've increased the dividend five years in a row, and as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, we turned a significant amount of capital via share repurchases and we also called out, in our prepared remarks, that we do look at our current valuation and feel like we are significantly undervalued and that repurchasing shares is a very good return.

現在加上股息，我們已經連續五年增加股息，正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的，我們通過股票回購轉換了大量資本，我們在準備好的評論中也提到，我們確實看了當前的估值，感覺我們被嚴重低估了，回購股票是一種非常好的回報。

Ian Zaffino, Oppenheimer & Company.

伊恩‧扎菲諾 (Ian Zaffino)，奧本海默公司。

Hi, that thank you very much for all the color. Question on the FX. What is sort of the FX headwinds tailwinds. Just walk us through that a little bit because I know you kind of a reverse relationship with the yen but, which actually seems to be strengthening but, give us a sense of like what you know what the headwinds are channels, etc. Thanks.

你好，非常感謝你提供的所有顏色。關於 FX 的問題。外匯逆風和順風是什麼樣的？請稍微向我們介紹一下這一點，因為我知道您與日元之間存在某種反向關係，但實際上似乎正在加強，但請讓我們了解一下您所知道的逆風渠道等。謝謝。

Yeah, Ian, this is Fred. Traditionally, we're relatively naturally hedged. Certainly, the currencies we're exposed to but, the purchases in the yen versus the and expense in yen versus the revenue, isn't what hits us significantly. What will hit us is balance sheet revaluations and thinking just about year-over-year '23 to '24, we were positive on FX in '23, negative on FX. So and that hit us from an EBITDA margin close to 100 basis points.

是的，伊恩，這是弗雷德。傳統上，我們的對沖相對自然。當然，我們所接觸的貨幣，但日圓相對於其他貨幣的購買量以及日圓相對於其他貨幣的支出和收入，並沒有對我們造成重大影響。對我們造成衝擊的是資產負債表重估，僅考慮 23 年至 24 年的同比情況，我們對 23 年的外匯持樂觀態度，對 24 年的外匯持悲觀態度。因此，這對我們的 EBITDA 利潤率造成了近 100 個基點的打擊。

So that's really where it's going to move as the dollar strengthens and we're holding assets in foreign currency, you can get potential revaluations. It tends to move around, but specifically for this quarter, both on a sequential and a year-over-year basis, it was more negative than we normally experienced.

因此，隨著美元走強，我們持有外幣資產，就會出現潛在的重估。它往往會有所變動，但具體到本季度，無論是按環比還是按同比來看，它都比我們通常經歷的更為負面。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略 (Angel Castillo)。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Maybe this one's for Fred. You've been CEO for a little bit over half a year now, and I think you know you've announced the capacity expansion, but could you just talk about what you've maybe perhaps uncovered and be in your new role kind of beyond that as it pertains to kind of other opportunities for potential investments for growth, as well as kind of areas to drive incremental operational efficiency.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。也許這個是給弗雷德的。您擔任執行長已有半年多了，我想您已經宣布了產能擴張，但您能否談談您可能發現的內容以及您在新職位上可能發現的其他成長潛在投資機會，以及推動增量營運效率的領域。

And just kind of related to that, does the new administration's policies accelerate or give you pause in terms of where you might be or kind of the next steps you might be taking in terms of investments or efficiency. Just a long-winded way of saying, what's your ability to kind of expand margins via self-help?

與此相關的是，新政府的政策是否會加速或讓您在投資或效率方面可能採取的下一步措施方面猶豫不決。長話短說，你透過自助來擴大利潤的能力如何？

A lot in there, Angel. So yes, it's back to June when I took on the additional responsibilities. Now, having said that, Dave and I have been working hand in hand for 17 years. Certainly, the type of activities we've been working on, the announced investment in India, and you know when you think about that, that's really going to allow us to kind of reset the capacity we're running through here.

裡面有很多東西，安吉爾。是的，回到六月，那時我承擔了額外的責任。話雖如此，戴夫和我已經攜手合作了 17 年。當然，我們一直在進行的活動類型、宣布的在印度的投資，你知道，當你想到這一點時，這實際上將使我們能夠重置我們在這裡運行的產能。

Get out in Indianapolis, get after some operational efficiencies, build 3000, 4000, best cost country from a fabrication standpoint. That's a couple year process. We've started investing, obviously, yet this year, and the step up you saw on CapEx is driven by that project and will continue into 2026.

走出印第安納波利斯，追求一些營運效率，從製造的角度建造 3000、4000 個成本最優的國家。這是一個持續幾年的過程。顯然，我們已經開始投資，但今年，您看到的資本支出成長是由該專案推動的，並將持續到 2026 年。

You talked about the new administration. I think, still a lot to be discovered, but I think when you think about the way we've invested in electrification, and we've done it in a meaningful way, but measured, and had really been focused on the right products, when the market was going to be available. I think that really positions us well versus our competition.

您談到了新政府。我認為，還有很多東西有待發現，但我認為，當你考慮我們在電氣化方面的投資方式時，我們會發現我們以一種有意義的方式進行投資，而且是經過衡量的，並且真正專注於正確的產品，當市場即將上市時。我認為這確實使我們在競爭中處於有利地位。

There's a lot of unknown, clearly. Some of the advantages we have is that we source the vast majority of our products in North America. We produce the vast majority of our products in North America. So with the new administration, I think that the type of activity that they're looking to reward via their policies are things that we're already doing, and I think we're well-prepared to prosper in that environment.

顯然，還有很多未知之處。我們的優勢之一是我們的絕大多數產品都來自北美。我們的絕大多數產品在北美生產。因此，我認為，在新政府的領導下，他們希望透過政策獎勵的活動正是我們已經在做的事情，而且我認為我們已經做好了在這種環境下繁榮發展的準備。

I would say as we look farther down the road, Dave and I have our conversations. Really one thing we're focused on is just getting back to the operational level of efficiency we had pre-pandemic. There's still a lot of challenges in the supply chain. You've had a tremendous amount of turnover in employees. So it's really getting back to that level of performance that we've demonstrated we could do and feel that we are entitled to.

我想說，當我們展望未來時，戴夫和我進行了交談。我們真正關注的一件事就是恢復到疫情前的營運效率水準。供應鏈中仍存在許多挑戰。你們的員工流動率非常高。因此，這實際上就是回到我們已經證明我們能夠做到並且覺得我們有權達到的績效水準。

Luke Junk, Baird.

盧克·簡克，貝爾德。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking question. Fred, just hoping you could double click on the moving pieces in the Outside North America On-Highway guidance. I know trends have been kind of uneven by geography recently in that business, but just trying to square the [lush] outlook with the more open-ended nature of that business's growth trajectory longer term and I think what's a year in, year out target of double-digit kind of growth there. Thank you.

午安.感謝您的提問。弗雷德，只是希望你能雙擊北美以外公路指南中的移動部分。我知道最近該行業的趨勢在各個地區之間有些不均衡，但我只是試圖將[蓬勃發展的]前景與該行業長期增長軌蹟的更開放性相協調，我認為該行業每年都實現兩位數的增長目標。謝謝。

Yeah, thanks, Luke, and you start with we're guiding the flat. We're not happy with that but, as we challenge the team to double-digit growth every year, it is a challenging market backdrop. As Dade mentioned earlier, we've been having quite a bit of success in the wide body money dumps produced in China, now also produced in India. And really being distributed broadly across the globe.

是的，謝謝，盧克，你先來指導公寓。我們對此並不滿意，但是，由於我們每年都要求團隊實現兩位數的成長，因此這是一個充滿挑戰的市場背景。正如戴德之前提到的，我們在中國生產的寬體飛機領域取得了相當大的成功，現在印度也開始生產。並且確實在全球範圍內廣泛分佈。

You know we had a really good year in Japan in 2024. Some of that was driven by some pull ahead volume associated with regulations and emissions changes in Australia. That'll be a challenge we'll need to overcome as we continue into 2025.

你知道，2024 年我們在日本度過了非常好的一年。其中一些是受到與澳洲法規和排放變化相關的提前量所推動的。這將是我們在 2025 年必須克服的挑戰。

Within Western Europe, Truck was very soft last year. But we've secured a lot of wins in Wheel Defense. And as we look out to 2025, the Truck market feels a lot like 2024, but we continue to outgrow there with success in Bus and Wheel Defense.

在西歐，去年卡車銷售非常疲軟。但我們在 Wheel Defense 中取得了很多勝利。展望 2025 年，卡車市場與 2024 年的情況非常相似，但憑藉在巴士和車輪防禦領域的成功，我們將繼續超越。

Down in South America, very excited about what our Brazilian team's doing penetrating the school buses market. And that's something that's we've been working on for four or five years and finally secured a portion of that rather large business and planned to continue to expand on that in 2025.

在南美洲，我們對我們的巴西團隊在進軍校車市場所做的努力感到非常興奮。這是我們四、五年來一直在努力的事情，最終獲得了一部分相當大的業務，並計劃在 2025 年繼續擴大。

A lot of activity in Southeast Asia, feeding into the Middle East, feeding into South Africa that we're very focused on secured line releases, refuse, pickup and delivery applications.

我們在東南亞、中東和南非開展了大量活動，我們非常重視安全線路放行、垃圾處理、取貨和送貨應用。

But having said all that and a lot of really good work that's driving penetration, the backdrop is just fewer commercial vehicles expected to be built in 2025. Again, our guide to 0%, but trust me, the team is very focused on exceeding that.

但儘管如此，儘管有許多出色的工作推動了滲透率的提高，但其背景是，預計 2025 年生產的商用車數量將會減少。再次強調，我們的指導價為 0%，但相信我，團隊非常專注於超越這個目標。

Jerry Revich, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的傑瑞·雷維奇。

Yes, hi, good afternoon, everyone. Fred, I wonder if we just go back to the comments that you made, given the company's outstanding performance and the comparison versus the best-in-class industrials. Can you just talk about what level of content gains do you folks expect to achieve? What stands out in addition to the margins for the best racial comps is just the organic growth track record and M&A track record. I'm wondering as we think about Allison within that context, how should we be thinking about the go forward paradigm versus history?

是的，大家好，下午好。弗雷德，考慮到該公司出色的表現以及與一流工業的比較，我想知道我們是否應該回顧一下您所做的評論。能談談你們期望實現什麼程度的內容效益嗎？除了最佳種族公司的利潤率之外，引人注目的還有有機成長記錄和併購記錄。我想知道，當我們在這種背景下思考艾利森時，我們該如何思考前進的典範與歷史？

I think you hit on some of them. Obviously, it'd be our ability to outgrow our markets. I think the consistency of our cash flow stream. As you know, we have no exposure to the more volatile, over the road Class 8 line haul market. A significant amount of our business, 30% to 40%, runs through municipalities which continue to buy in downturns, our ability to continue to drive our margins higher. We are, obviously, guiding to margin up this year, year over year with volume down. Guiding the margin up 80 basis points versus 2024 with, like I said, total volume down lower.

我認為你已經了解其中的一些了。顯然，這是我們超越市場的能力。我認為我們的現金流是一致的。如您所知，我們沒有接觸波動性較大的 8 級公路幹線運輸市場。我們的業務的很大一部分（30% 到 40%）來自各市政府，這些市政府在經濟低迷時期繼續購買，這使我們能夠繼續提高利潤率。顯然，我們預計今年的利潤率將比去年同期上升，但銷量將下降。指導利潤率較 2024 年上漲 80 個基點，正如我所說，總量下降。

So I think those are the things that separate us. And then, we look at the peer set and, well, we've had a tremendous run in stock evaluation, primarily as the overhead of EVs rolled off. We're not back to where we used to be, we're maybe 9.5 turns on EBITDA where we used to be 12. We look at premier industrials that are, 18, 20 times EBITDA and see no reason why we shouldn't carry that type of evaluation.

所以我認為這些就是我們之間的差異。然後，我們看看同行的情況，嗯，我們的股票評估已經有了巨大的成長，主要是因為電動車的開銷減少了。我們還沒有回到以前的狀態，EBITDA 可能只翻了 9.5 倍，而以前是 12 倍。我們研究了 EBITDA 為 18 倍甚至 20 倍的頂級工業企業，認為沒有理由不進行這種評估。

And can I just ask a shorter-term question. In terms of manufacturing costs, you spoke this big focus for you, Dave, and the organization. What level of manufacturing cost inflation does the guidance embed in '25 in terms of true underlying inflation versus allocated production costs as volumes are down and parts of the business? Can you just help us understand that a bit?

我可以問一個短期問題嗎？在製造成本方面，戴夫，您談到了您和組織的重點。由於產量下降和部分業務的下降，就真實潛在通膨與分配的生產成本而言，25 年的製造成本通膨指導價是多少？您能幫助我們稍微理解一下嗎？

Yeah, we when we look at where we are right now, we have manufacturing costs down year over year. We do have our purchase components up, our assumptions on raw material, which were really anything from a pre-tariff standpoint. We did have raw material inflating as the year progressed and some negotiated price increases from our suppliers.

是的，當我們回顧目前的狀況時，我們發現製造成本逐年下降。我們確實提高了採購組件，對原材料進行了假設，這些假設實際上是從關稅前的角度來看的。隨著時間的推移，我們的原物料價格確實上漲了，一些供應商也透過談判提高了價格。

So that's where we're seeing cost pressure. Now, certainly, we've got inflation embedded within manufacturing, but we also have performance embedded and we're guiding to less volume rolling through our facilities and, as we mentioned, we took the vast majority of the UAW contract increases in 2024. So rolling out for this agreement, the economics are much closer to just a normal inflation sort of economics.

這就是我們看到的成本壓力。現在，當然，我們的製造業已經陷入通貨膨脹，但我們也面臨著績效問題，我們正在引導通過我們工廠的產量減少，正如我們所提到的，我們在 2024 年承擔了 UAW 合約成長的絕大部分。因此，實施這項協議後，其經濟狀況更接近正常的通膨經濟狀況。

Sherif El-Sabbahy, Bank of America.

美國銀行謝里夫·埃爾-薩巴希。

Afternoon Just to start off, maybe continue discussion on some of your costs. Your guidance implies about 80 basis points of margin expansion at the midpoint on 400 basis points of price. Could you provide some color on maybe what your biggest cost buckets are embedded within that? You've mentioned some of your steel aluminum exposure and perhaps what contribution fixed cost absorption will have.

下午 首先，也許繼續討論您的一些成本。您的指導意味著在 400 個基點的價格中間點，利潤率將擴大約 80 個基點。能否詳細說明其中最大的成本部分是什麼？您提到了鋼鐵鋁業的一些投資機會以及固定成本吸收可能帶來的貢獻。

Sure, Sharif. I think it's fair. Every everybody can pretty much drop to the 400 basis points that should drive, for us, that should drive margins of 250 basis points. But clearly, we've got revenue down roughly due to volume, roughly $100 million and we have obviously very attractive drop-throughs there. So that's hitting us for offsetting the price by about 90 basis points. And then looking at raw material pressures on the upward, with about a third of those driven by, sorry, about 13% driven by raw, and the other two-thirds from a direct material purchase driven by value add. It's hitting as well.

當然，謝里夫。我認為這是公平的。每個人幾乎都可以下降到 400 個基點，對我們來說，這應該可以推動 250 個基點的利潤率。但顯然，我們的收入下降大致是由於銷量下降，大約 1 億美元，而且我們在那裡顯然有非常有吸引力的下降。因此，這對我們來說將抵消約 90 個基點的價格。然後看看原材料的上升壓力，其中約三分之一是由原材料驅動的，抱歉，約 13% 是由原材料驅動的，另外三分之二是由增值驅動的直接材料購買。它也受到打擊。

So it's 250 basis points from price, and then pretty equally spread between the volume impact and the decrementals on that and cost increases. Again, the vast majority of the cost increases are purchase components. We have engineering R&D relatively flat, SG&A relatively flat, and manufacturing costs down year over year.

因此，這是價格的 250 個基點，然後在數量影響和成本增加之間的遞減相當均勻地分佈。再次強調，成本增加的絕大部分是購買零件。我們的工程研發費用相對平穩，銷售、一般及行政開支相對平穩，製造成本逐年下降。

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the floor back over to Dave Graziosi for any closing comments.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。現在我想把發言權交還給 Dave Graziosi，請他發表最後評論。

Thank you for your continued interest in Allison and for participating on today's call. Enjoy your evening.

感謝您對 Allison 的持續關注以及參加今天的電話會議。祝您晚上愉快。

This concludes today's conference. We may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。我們此時可能會斷開您的線路。感謝您的參與。