Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. Thank you for standing by.

午安.感謝您的耐心等待。

Welcome to Allison Transmission's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Shamali, and I will be your conference call operator today.

歡迎參加艾里遜變速箱公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。我是沙瑪莉，今天將擔任這次電話會議的接線生。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

再次提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference call over to Jackie Bolles, Executive Director of Treasury & Investor Relations

現在我將把電話會議交給財務及投資者關係執行董事傑基·博爾斯女士。

Please go ahead, Jackie.

請繼續，傑基。

Thank you, Shamali. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for our third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

謝謝沙瑪莉。下午好，感謝您參加我們2025年第三季財報電話會議。

With me this afternoon are Dave Graziosi, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer; Fred Bohley, our Chief Operating Officer; and Scott Mel, our Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer.

今天下午陪同我的有：我們的董事長兼首席執行官戴夫·格拉齊奧西；我們的首席營運官弗雷德·博利；以及我們的首席財務官兼財務主管斯科特·梅爾。

As a reminder, a conference call, webcast, and this afternoon's presentation are available on the Investor Relations section of allisontransmission.com. A replay of this call will be available (technical difficulty) November 12.

再次提醒，本次電話會議、網路直播以及今天下午的簡報均可在allisontransmission.com網站的「投資者關係」欄位中找到。本次電話會議的錄音重播（因技術因素）將於11月12日上線。

As noted on slide 2 of the presentation, many of our remarks today contain forward-looking statements based on current expectations. These forward-looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, including those set forth in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, and quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. Should one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions or estimates prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we expressed today.

正如簡報第2頁所述，我們今天的許多發言都包含基於當前預期的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到已知和未知風險的影響，包括我們在截至2024年12月31日止年度的10-K表格年度報告和截至2025年6月30日止季度的10-Q表格季度報告中所述的風險。如果這些風險或不確定性中的一項或多項成為現實，或者如果基本假設或估計被證明不正確，則實際結果可能與我們今天表達的結果有重大差異。

In addition, as noted on slide 3 of the presentation, some of our remarks today contain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the SEC. You can find reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures attached to the appendix to the presentation and to our third-quarter 2025 earnings press release.

此外，如同簡報第3頁所述，我們今天的部分發言包含美國證券交易委員會（SEC）定義的非公認會計準則（非GAAP）財務指標。您可以在簡報附錄和我們2025年第三季財報新聞稿中找到非GAAP財務指標與最接近的GAAP指標的調節表。

Today's call is set to end at 5:45 PM Eastern Time. In order to maximize participation opportunities on the call, we'll take just one question from each analyst.

今天的電話會議將於美國東部時間下午5:45結束。為了最大限度地增加參與機會，我們將只允許每位分析師提出一個問題。

Please turn to slide 4 of the presentation for the call agenda. During today's call, Dave Graziosi will provide a business update and Fred Foley will review recent announcements across our business. Scott Mell will then review our third-quarter 2025 financial performance and full-year 2025 guidance update prior to commencing the Q&A.

請翻到簡報第4頁查看電話會議議程。在今天的電話會議上，Dave Graziosi將報告業務最新進展，Fred Foley將回顧公司近期發布的各項公告。隨後，Scott Mell將回顧我們2025年第三季的財務表現以及2025年全年業績指引，之後進入問答環節。

Now, I'll turn the call over to Dave.

現在，我把電話交給戴夫。

Thank you, Jackie. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us.

謝謝你，傑基。下午好，感謝你加入我們。

Throughout 2025, our largest end market, North America On-Highway has been negatively affected by extraordinary and volatile global macroeconomic factors leading to substantial reductions in demand for commercial vehicles. External pressures related to tariffs, evolving trade policies, and upcoming emissions regulations, in addition to broader economic uncertainties have led to more cautious purchasing decisions from end users, which has impacted visibility and predictability in terms of demand. We expect this operating environment to persist in the near term with market activity likely to remain subdued until there is greater clarity around these regulatory and economic factors. A meaningful shift will depend on a clear catalyst or resolution to the aforementioned issues impacting demand.

2025年全年，我們最大的終端市場——北美公路市場——受到異常且動盪的全球宏觀經濟因素的負面影響，導致商用車需求大幅下降。關稅、不斷變化的貿易政策、即將出台的排放法規以及更廣泛的經濟不確定性等外部壓力，使得終端用戶在採購決策上更加謹慎，從而影響了需求的可見度和可預測性。我們預計這種經營環境將在短期內持續，在這些監管和經濟因素更加明朗之前，市場活動可能仍將保持低迷。市場能否出現實質轉變，取決於是否有明確的催化劑，或上述影響需求的因素是否能有效解決。

Despite these challenges, we remain focused on what we can control, including meeting our commitments to operational excellence, quality, customer service, and maintaining strong execution across all aspects of our business. Our performance during the third quarter reflects Allison's resilience with the ability to flex our operating cost structure and generate meaningful cash flow during low-demand environments.

儘管面臨這些挑戰，我們仍專注於我們能夠掌控的方面，包括履行我們對卓越營運、品質、客戶服務的承諾，並在業務的各個方面保持強勁的執行力。第三季的業績反映了艾里森的韌性，我們能夠靈活調整營運成本結構，並在低迷時期創造可觀的現金流。

For the quarter, although revenue decreased 16% year over year, we achieved an adjusted EBITDA margin of 37% and generated adjusted free cash flow of $184 million. Importantly, we remain agile and responsive to evolving market dynamics, ensuring we can quickly adapt as conditions change. As mentioned on our last earnings conference call, we see the reductions in demand in North America On-Highway as a deferral of purchases by end users as opposed to a permanent change in market size.

本季度，儘管營收年減16%，但我們實現了37%的調整後EBITDA利潤率，並產生了1.84億美元的調整後自由現金流。重要的是，我們保持了對不斷變化的市場動態的敏捷性和反應能力，確保能夠根據市場變化迅速調整策略。正如我們在上次財報電話會議上提到的，我們認為北美公路輪胎需求的下降是終端用戶延遲購買的結果，而非市場規模的永久性變化。

In summary, while the operating environment remains challenging, we are managing through the uncertainty with discipline, maintaining a solid balance sheet with over $900 million of cash on hand, a sequential quarterly increase of $124 million and making prudent decisions to preserve financial strength with a commitment to delivering long-term value to our stakeholders.

總而言之，儘管經營環境依然充滿挑戰，但我們正以嚴謹的態度應對不確定性，保持穩健的資產負債表，手頭現金超過 9 億美元，環比增長 1.24 億美元，並做出審慎的決策以保持財務實力，致力於為我們的利益相關者創造長期價值。

At the same time, we are working diligently to successfully close our acquisition of Dana's off-highway business. I would like to thank the Allison team for their hard work and dedication during this period.

同時，我們正全力以赴，力求順利完成對達納非公路車輛業務的收購。在此，我要感謝艾里遜團隊在這段期間的辛勤付出和敬業精神。

Now I'll pass the call over to Fred to review recent announcements across our business.

現在我將把電話交給弗雷德，讓他回顧我們公司最近發布的各項公告。

Fred?

弗雷德？

Thank you, Dave. Good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝你，戴夫。大家下午好。

Starting with our Outside North America On-Highway end market in early August, we were excited to announce that Volare microbuses equipped with Allison T2100 fully automatic transmissions were delivered in Brazil in support of the country's student transportation modernization initiatives. In collaboration with the National Fund for Educational Development, these vehicles represent the first school buses utilizing fully automatic transmissions in South America.

8月初，我們率先在北美以外的公路終端市場推出Volare微型巴士。隨後，我們欣喜地宣布，配備Allison T2100全自動變速箱的Volare微型巴士已交付巴西，以支持該國的學生交通現代化計劃。這些車輛是與巴西國家教育發展基金會合作的成果，也是南美洲首批採用全自動變速箱的校車。

Allison's fully automatic transmissions eliminate the need for manual gear shifts, simplifying operations on roads with mud, gravel, and steep inclines. Drivers report less physical strain and greater control, particularly in challenging driving conditions and rough terrain. We're pleased to support better access to education while demonstrating the performance, reliability, and efficiency of Allison's fully automatic transmissions. In addition to the social impact, this milestone reflects our strategic priorities for growth in markets outside of North America.

艾里遜全自動變速箱無需手動換檔，簡化了在泥濘、碎石路和陡坡路段的駕駛操作。駕駛者回饋，尤其是在路況複雜和地形崎嶇的情況下，駕駛更加輕鬆，操控性也更強。我們很高興能夠透過展示艾里遜全自動變速箱的性能、可靠性和效率，為教育事業的發展貢獻力量。除了社會影響之外，這個里程碑也反映了我們在北美以外市場拓展業務的策略重點。

In our North American On-Highway end market during the quarter, we announced that Allison's neutral stop technology has been standardized by PACCAR on the Kenworth and Peterborough trucks equipped with Allison's 4700 rugged duty series transmission. Allison's neutral stop technology is designed to improve fuel efficiency and lower operating costs by reducing engine load at stops and reducing unnecessary fuel consumption when vehicles are at idle. Our technology ensures that fuel is used for movement, not for idling, enhancing overall fuel efficiency. We are proud to partner with PACCAR to make this innovative solution a standard offering for customers supporting fleets and their goals to reduce fuel consumption and vehicle emissions.

本季度，我們在北美公路終端市場宣布，PACCAR已將艾里遜（Allison）的空擋停止技術標準化應用於配備艾里遜4700系列重型變速箱的肯沃斯（Kenworth）和彼得伯​​勒（Peterborough）卡車。艾里遜的空擋停止技術旨在透過降低車輛停止時的引擎負荷以及減少車輛怠速時的非必要燃油消耗，從而提高燃油效率並降低營運成本。我們的技術確保燃油用於車輛行駛而非怠速，進而提升整體燃油效率。我們很榮幸能與PACCAR合作，將這項創新解決方案作為標準配置，為支援車隊並實現其降低油耗和車輛排放目標的客戶提供服務。

Also in our North America On-Highway end market earlier this month, we announced that Ozinga Renewable Energy Logistics has successfully deployed Kenworth's T88 tractors, utilizing the commons X15 in natural gas engine integrated with our Allison 4500 rugged duty series transmission. The pairing sets a new standard for sustainable heavy-duty transportation, delivering exceptional power and innovative technology. The integration also demonstrates how sustainability and operational excellence can go hand in hand, allowing industries to adopt cleaner fuel solutions like natural gas without compromising on performance.

本月初，我們宣布，在北美公路運輸終端市場，Ozinga Renewable Energy Logistics 已成功部署 Kenworth 的 T88 牽引車，該牽引車採用通用型 X15 天然氣發動機，並集成了我們的 Allison 4500 重型變速箱。這一組合為可持續重型運輸樹立了新標桿，提供了卓越的動力和創新技術。此次整合也展示了永續性和卓越營運如何齊頭並進，使各行業能夠在不影響性能的前提下採用天然氣等更清潔的燃料解決方案。

With these announcements, reiterate the field-agnostic nature of Allison's fully automatic transmissions. Our products pair well with all propulsion solutions, providing customers with power of choice in selecting the energy source that best suits their needs.

透過這些公告，我們再次強調了艾里遜全自動變速箱不受應用領域限制的特性。我們的產品可與所有動力系統完美匹配，讓客戶能夠根據自身需求選擇最合適的動力來源。

Moving on to our defense end market. This morning we announced that WZM, a state-owned defense vehicle service provider in Poland, is now an official channel partner for track vehicles. Allison's propulsion solutions power a wide range of wheeled and track defense vehicles that are actively deployed in more than 80 US allied and partner nations worldwide.

接下來談談我們的國防終端市場。今天上午，我們宣布波蘭國有國防車輛服務供應商WZM正式成為我們履帶車輛的通路合作夥伴。艾里遜的動力系統解決方案為全球80多個美國盟國和夥伴國部署的各種輪式和履帶式國防車輛提供動力。

As a result of our growing international defense presence, Allison now enables local commercial or government service providers to become Allison authorized channel partners. We're excited to add WZM to our global network of authorized service providers to support Allison's cross-drive transmissions for defense applications. Allison continues to enhance our global support capabilities through strategic partnerships with local service providers, further solidifying our commitment to improving the operational readiness of defense vehicles worldwide.

隨著我們在國際防務領域的影響力不斷擴大，艾里遜現已允許本地商業或政府服務供應商成為艾里遜授權通路合作夥伴。我們很高興將WZM納入我們的全球授權服務供應商網絡，為艾里遜用於國防應用的交叉驅動變速箱提供支援。艾里遜將繼續透過與本地服務供應商建立戰略合作夥伴關係來增強我們的全球支援能力，進一步鞏固我們致力於提升全球國防車輛作戰準備水準的承諾。

Also in our defense end market, we're pleased to announce that Allison was selected by FNSS Defense Systems, a subsidiary of Nurol Holding, to supply our 3040 MX medium weight cross-drive transmissions for the Turkish Land Forces Korkut program. The Korkut system is a mobile air defense solution developed in Turkey to protect ground forces from drones, helicopters, and low-flying aircraft. The system consists of two track vehicles, is designed to move with armored units and operate across difficult terrain, adding fast and flexible protection for defense forces. This partnership with FNSS and our participation in the Korkut program is a testament to the trust and confidence in Allison's capabilities to deliver high-quality, reliable transmissions that meet the demanding requirements of modern defense vehicles.

此外，在國防終端市場，我們很高興地宣布，艾里遜公司已被努羅爾控股公司（Nurol Holding）旗下子公司FNSS國防系統公司選中，為其土耳其陸軍的「科爾庫特」（Korkut）項目提供3040 MX中型橫向驅動變速箱。 「科爾庫特」系統是土耳其自主研發的行動防空解決方案，旨在保護地面部隊免受無人機、直升機和低空飛行器的攻擊。該系統由兩輛履帶車輛組成，可與裝甲部隊協同作戰，並可在複雜地形上執行任務，為國防力量提供快速且靈活的防護。與FNSS的合作以及我們參與「科爾庫特」項目，充分體現了FNSS對艾里遜公司交付高品質、高可靠性變速箱能力的信任和信心，這些變速箱能夠滿足現代國防車輛的嚴苛要求。

In addition, this partnership further solidifies Allison's presence in the Turkish defense sector, where we are supporting numerous wheel platforms and actively engaged supplying our X1100 transmission for the Turkish Firtina self-propelled howitzer program.

此外，此次合作進一步鞏固了艾里遜在土耳其國防領域的地位，我們為土耳其的眾多輪式平台提供支持，並積極參與為土耳其的 Firtina 自行榴彈砲項目供應 X1100 變速箱。

Thank you, and I'll now turn the call over to Scott.

謝謝，現在我把電話轉給史考特。

Thank you, Fred.

謝謝你，弗雷德。

I will now review our third-quarter financial performance and provide an update to our full-year 2025 guidance. Please turn to slide 5 of the presentation, the Q3 2025 performance summary.

接下來，我將回顧我們第三季的財務業績，並更新我們2025年全年業績預期。請翻到簡報的第5頁，即2025年第三季業績概要。

Year-over-year net sales of $693 million, were down 16% from the same period in 2024, primarily due to lower demand for Class A vocational and medium-duty trucks in the North American On-Highway end market.

淨銷售額年減 16%，達到 6.93 億美元，比 2024 年同期下降 16%，主要原因是北美公路終端市場對 A 級專用卡車和中型卡車的需求下降。

In the defense end market, we continue to execute on our growth initiatives with third-quarter net sales increasing 47% year over year. The net income for the quarter was $137 million, a decrease of $63 million from $200 million in the same period of 2024. The decrease was primarily driven by lower gross profit and $14 million of expenses related to the acquisition of Dana's Off-Highway segment.

在國防終端市場，我們持續推進成長計劃，第三季淨銷售額年增47%。本季淨利為1.37億美元，較2024年同期的2億美元減少6,300萬美元。淨利潤下降的主要原因是毛利減少以及收購達納公司非公路車輛業務部門產生的1400萬美元費用。

Despite a challenging operating environment, adjusted EBITDA margin was essentially flat year over year at 37%.

儘管經營環境充滿挑戰，但調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率與前一年基本持平，為 37%。

Net cash provided by operating activities for the quarter was $228 million, a decrease of $18 million from the same period in 2024. The decrease was primarily driven by lower gross profit and $13 million of payments for acquisition-related expenses. Partially offset by lower cash income taxes and lower operating working capital funding requirements.

本季經營活動產生的淨現金流量為2.28億美元，較2024年同期減少1,800萬美元。減少的主要原因是毛利下降以及支付了1300萬美元的收購相關費用。部分被較低的現金所得稅和較低的營運資金需求所抵銷。

Our strong cash generation remains a key strength of our business with adjusted free cash flow of $184 million in the third quarter. We continue to maintain solid operating cash flow, reflecting the resilience of our operations and disciplined cost management. We ended the third quarter with a net leverage ratio of 1.33 times and $1.65 billion of liquidity, comprised of $902 million of cash, and $745 million of available revolving credit facility commitments.

強勁的現金流依然是我們業務的關鍵優勢，第三季調整後自由現金流達1.84億美元。我們持續保持穩健的經營現金流，這反映了我們營運的韌性和嚴格的成本控制。第三季末，我們的淨槓桿率為1.33倍，流動資金達16.5億美元，其中包括9.02億美元的現金和7.45億美元的可用循環信貸額度。

We continue to maintain a flexible, long-dated, and covenant-like debt structure with our earliest maturity due in October 2027. A detailed overview of our net sales by end market in Q3 2025 financial performance can be found on slide 6, 7, and 8 of the presentation.

我們持續維持靈活、長期且類似契約的債務結構，最早到期日為 2027 年 10 月。有關我們 2025 年第三季按終端市場劃分的淨銷售額的詳細概述，請參閱簡報的第 6、7 和 8 頁。

Please turn the slide 9 of the presentation for our 2025 guidance update. Given third-quarter results and -- and current market conditions, we are revising a full-year 2025 guidance provided to the market on August 4. Allison now expects net sales to be in the range of $2,975 million to $3,025 million. In addition to Allison's 2025 net sales guidance, we anticipate net income in the range of $620 million to $650 million including over $60 million of expenses related to our acquisition of Dana's Off-Highway business.

請翻到簡報的第9頁，查看我們2025年業績指引的更新。鑑於第三季業績以及當前的市場狀況，我們對8月4日發布的2025年全年業績指引進行了修訂。艾里遜目前預期淨銷售額將在29.75億美元至30.25億美元之間。除上述2025年淨銷售額指引外，我們預計淨利潤將在6.2億美元至6.5億美元之間，其中包括與收購達納非公路業務相關的超過6000萬美元的費用。

Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1,090 million to $1,125 million. Net cash provided by operating activities in the range of $765 million to $795 million which includes approximately $70 million of cash outlays related to our acquisition of Dana's Off-Highway business. Capital expenditures in the range of $165 million to $175 million and adjusted free cash flow in the range of $600 million to $620 million. We are maintaining the midpoint of the implied full-year adjusted EBITDA margin guidance.

調整後 EBITDA 預計在 10.9 億美元至 11.25 億美元之間。經營活動產生的淨現金流預計在 7.65 億美元至 7.95 億美元之間，其中包括與收購 Dana 的非公路業務相關的約 7,000 萬美元現金支出。資本支出預計在 1.65 億美元至 1.75 億美元之間，調整後自由現金流預計在 6 億美元至 6.2 億美元之間。我們維持全年調整後 EBITDA 利潤率預期中位數不變。

This concludes our prepared remarks. Shamali, please open the call for questions.

我們的發言到此結束。沙瑪利，請開始提問環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Rob Wertheimer, Melius Research.

Rob Wertheimer，Melius Research。

So it's really no surprise, I guess, given truck orders that On-Highway sales are down. This is a little bit of a steeper decline than we modeled and maybe we should apologize for that, but even so, it felt a little steeper than I would have thought. And I wonder if you could give maybe this is a little bit of a soft question, but your opinion because there's some different factors of this cycle with bodybuilders haven't been a bit backed up, so maybe there's more channel inventory. The cycle was a little bit higher than it was in recent downturns at least. And so I wonder if you could help us disaggregate the suddenness of this fall versus channel inventory and end market, demand, which may or may not be as dramatic as this.

所以，考慮到卡車訂單，公路銷售下降其實並不令人意外。這次的跌幅比我們之前的模型預測要大一些，或許我們應該為此道歉，但即便如此，實際跌幅也比我預想的要大。我想請您談談您的看法，這個問題可能有點敏感，但鑑於目前市場週期中一些因素的影響，例如健美運動員的庫存不足，導致渠道庫存可能增加。至少，這次的周期比最近幾次經濟低迷時期都要高一些。所以我想請您幫我們分析一下，這次銷量暴跌的幅度是突然的，還是通路庫存和終端市場需求造成的，終端市場需求的跌幅可能沒有這次這麼劇烈。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Rob, thank you for the question, it's Dave. So just a quick reference back to our August call when we talked about I mentioned what we were starting to see in terms of revisions to build rates, getting to your question with the OEM announcements that we referenced at the time layoffs, et cetera. That just you know was early Q3. There was certainly an expectation that those build rates would at some level start to normalize to your point about steeper than we thought, so to speak, we all of us, those reductions continued, frankly.

羅布，謝謝你的提問，我是戴夫。簡單回顧一下我們八月的電話會議，當時我提到我們開始看到產能調整的情況，也就是你提到的OEM廠商的裁員公告等等。你知道，那是第三季初。我們當時確實預期產能會逐漸恢復正常，但正如你所說，產能下降的幅度比我們預想的要大得多。坦白說，我們所有人都認為產能下降的趨勢仍在持續。

So as we looked at getting by the end of third quarter or certainly earlier this quarter, you started to see some level of normalization at those lower levels. So to your question in terms of how everybody is reading the market right now, no question that bodybuilders continue to, in many cases, sit with quite a few chassis. It really does depend on the end users in terms of overall inventory levels that are out there, I think that's starting to improve in most cases, but the reality is that inventory is needed to be further rationalized. I think you know the OEM comments about even third-quarter results that are pretty fresh here all support that point.

所以，到了第三季末，或者更確切地說是本季初，我們開始看到低端庫存水準出現一定程度的正常化。至於你問的大家目前如何解讀市場，毫無疑問，許多車身製造商仍然積壓了相當多的底盤。這確實取決於終端用戶的整體庫存水平，我認為大多數情況下庫存水平正在開始改善，但現實情況是，庫存需要進一步合理化。我想，你也知道，即使是最近公佈的第三季業績，OEM廠商的評論也都支持這一點。

So again we talked about in August medium duty being a very tough year, vocational certainly starting to soften, and I think the comments that we referenced in our prepared script certainly there is no doubt that the level of uncertainty is extremely high, so it makes anybody's job at this point relatively difficult to forecast, and I think frankly, even the ranges that the OEMs have provided for the balance of this year and even thinking about '26 are pretty wide as so you know.

所以我們再次在八月談到，中型卡車市場今年將非常艱難，專業卡車市場也開始有所緩和。我認為我們在準備好的講稿中提到的評論無疑表明，不確定性非常高，因此，目前任何人的工作都很難進行預測。坦白說，我認為即使是原始設備製造商為今年剩餘時間甚至2026年提供的預測範圍也相當廣泛。

We've had a very strong cycle coming out of COVID, as you mentioned. I think that certainly filled some of the gap that was there. Having said all that, equipment is being utilized, so to our prepared comments, we don't really view this as a change in market size, it's more a deferral and you can't blame frankly the end users with the amount of uncertainty that they're all facing. Capital costs more. There's a higher risk premium.

正如您所說，新冠疫情後我們迎來了一個非常強勁的周期。我認為這確實填補了部分市場缺口。話雖如此，設備仍在被使用，因此，就我們事先準備好的評論而言，我們並不認為這是市場規模的變化，而更像是需求的延遲。坦白說，考慮到終端用戶目前面臨的諸多不確定性，您也不能怪他們。資本成本更高，風險溢酬也更高。

So from our perspective, anybody that's making investment decisions right now is likely looking for a more attractive risk reward balance and that's very difficult to come by until we all have more certainty around whether it be emissions, interest rates, trade, et cetera. So there's a lot out there at this point for all of us to digest. We feel very good about our market position as we continue to have very strong share.

所以從我們的角度來看，現在任何做出投資決策的人都可能在尋找更具吸引力的風險回報平衡，但在我們對排放、利率、貿易等諸多方面有更明確的了解之前，這很難實現。因此，目前有很多資訊需要我們所有人去消化。我們對自身的市場地位感到非常滿意，因為我們仍然擁有非常強大的市場份額。

Strong poll in terms of end users and our positioning to respond to whatever demand the market presents to us. So with our structures we talked about whether it be cost, labor, et cetera. The investments that we've made in capacity, we feel very well placed to respond to whatever the market conditions are, but we're going to, as I said, focus on the things we can control at this point and the revenue - when you look at the revenue reduction on a year-over-year basis, I think again supports the idea that we are a flexible organization. We respond accordingly and the margin performance really speaks to that.

就終端用戶而言，民意調查結果非常有力，而且我們已做好充分準備，以應對市場提出的任何需求。因此，在組織架構方面，我們討論了成本、勞動力等問題。我們對產能的投資讓我們感覺能夠很好地應對任何市場狀況，但正如我所說，我們將專注於目前我們可以控制的因素，也就是收入——從同比收入下降的情況來看，我認為這再次印證了我們是一家靈活的企業。我們會根據市場狀況做出相應的調整，而利潤率的表現也充分說明了這一點。

I mean, you're seeing some, mixed trends, let's say in construction equipment, which maybe overlaps a little bit on the heavy side on vocational. Was vocational as bad as medium duty and then if you have any way to quantify how much inventory was in the channel versus prior cycles, that'll just help a little bit understand where we are, but the answer was comprehensive and I appreciate it.

我的意思是，你會看到一些好壞參半的趨勢，例如建築設備，它可能在重型設備和專用設備方面有一些重疊。專用設備的情況是否像中型設備那麼糟糕？如果你能量化管道中的庫存量與前幾個週期相比的變化，那將有助於我們更好地了解現狀。你的回答很全面，我很感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I just offer on the medium duty by far much tougher sledding right now in terms of overall market. We don't necessarily view vocational as nearly as that has been challenged, and I would just point you to, I think the OEM comments that do have a meaningful share in the vocational space. They continue to support that very overtly, and we believe, given all the infrastructure investment that's underway with AI data centers, et cetera that that certainly bodes well for the utilization of those relevant fleets and as I said, that equipment is certainly being used right now.

就目前整體市場而言，中型卡車面臨的挑戰遠比大型卡車大得多。我們不認為專用卡車市場受到的挑戰要大，我想指出的是，那些在專用卡車領域佔有重要份額的原始設備製造商（OEM）的評論。他們一直非常明確地支援專用卡車市場，我們相信，鑑於人工智慧資料中心等基礎設施建設的持續投入，這無疑將有利於相關車隊的利用率。正如我所說，這些設備目前確實正在使用中。

Tim Thein, Raymond James.

提姆泰恩，雷蒙詹姆斯。

It's just a quick one, it's just on the implied. Revenues for the fourth quarter, the full-year guide implies something like a 5% sequential improvement and we just spent plenty of time talking about the challenges in North America On-Highway, and fewer build days, and OEM build plans certainly not being revised higher. So what's the offset there, again -- it just what, yeah, I don't know, defense or other segments that you'd point to in terms of why we see an improvement sequentially on the top line.

這只是一個簡單的問題，僅基於隱含的預期。第四季營收和全年業績指引暗示著環比增長約5%，而我們之前花了大量時間討論北美公路運輸業務面臨的挑戰，例如生產天數減少，以及OEM廠商的生產計劃並未上調。那麼，究竟是什麼因素抵銷了這些影響呢？ ——我不知道，國防或其他業務板塊，您認為是什麼因素可以解釋為什麼我們看到營收季增？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Tim. This is Fred.

謝謝你，提姆。我是弗雷德。

As Dave mentioned, a tremendous amount of downtime by the OEMs in Q3, aggressively adjusting inventory levels [rolled] into Q4s, clearly we're going to have fewer work days which would generally drive that down versus Q3, but you need to take into consideration the significant amount of down days, and you also saw a defense ramp pretty aggressively off the Q2 and Q3, and we expect that to continue into Q4.

正如戴夫所提到的，第三季度原始設備製造商 (OEM) 的大量停機時間，以及積極調整庫存水平，都延續到了第四季度。顯然，第四季度的工作日將會減少，這通常會使庫存水準低於第三季度，但你需要考慮到大量的停機時間。此外，你還看到第二季和第三季國防採購量大幅增加，我們預計這種情況將持續到第四季。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Ian Zaffino, Oppenheimer & Company.

伊恩·扎菲諾，奧本海默公司。

Just try to understand maybe when you guys started to notice the weakness and how did it look, maybe by month throughout the quarter. And I guess what I'm trying to get at here is you guys did a great job of kind of curtailing SG&A, some of the R&D. So was that kind of a reaction to what you had seen or was this kind of pre-planned and then how do we think about kind of going forward in this environment? Thanks.

我想了解一下，你們是什麼時候開始注意到業績下滑的，以及整個季度每個月的情況。我想問的是，你們在削減銷售、管理及行政費用以及部分研發支出方面做得非常出色。這是對之前觀察到的情況做出的應對，還是事先就已計劃好的？接下來，在這種環境下，我們該如何考慮未來的發展方向？謝謝。

It's Dave. I appreciate the questions there.

我是戴夫。感謝大家的提問。

So as we mentioned on the Q4 -- August 4th call, we really started this weakness and build and reductions in build rates really started to manifest itself early Q3 what to Fred's comments, there was certainly an expectation at least what we were being provided with from a build rate or forecast perspective at that stage was really focused on Q3 at that point in terms of adjustments. So what has since transpired is some level of adjustment we would certainly look at it from a bit of a normalization from Q3 to Q4.

正如我們在8月4日的第四季電話會議上提到的，這種疲軟的局面，以及產能下降，實際上早在第三季初就開始顯現。正如弗雷德所說，當時我們得到的產能預測數據，至少從預測的角度來看，確實都集中在第三季的調整。因此，目前的情況是，產能已經有所調整，我們可以將其視為從第三季到第四季的某種程度的正常化。

So I think it appears to be starting to settle out simply because adjustments have been made to Fred's comments around inventory. Also importantly, just build rate capabilities. Once you start taking out your head count, it very much does restrict output, obviously, so we see that some level of balance from Q3 to Q4.

所以我認為情況似乎開始趨於穩定，這主要是因為對弗雷德關於庫存的評論做出了調整。同樣重要的是，產能也得到了提升。一旦開始裁員，產量顯然會受到很大限制，因此我們看到第三季到第四季之間出現了一定程度的平衡。

Our cost approaches, as you know you've covered us for a number of years, it's pretty consistent. As we entered the year and certainly focused on the macro environment and frankly the volatility, the uncertainty. We would view as almost unprecedented other than COVID to a level because you had so many things coming into the market, it became clear to us that that was going to have the impact we believe at the time of -- inserting a tremendous amount of uncertainty into the end market for end users, so that implies that they have the ability to defer, which they in fact have done.

如您所知，多年來您一直關注著我們，我們的成本控制方法一直相當穩定。年初，我們專注於宏觀環境，坦白說，也關注市場波動和不確定性。除了新冠疫情之外，我們認為這種不確定性幾乎是前所未有的，因為當時市場上湧現出太多因素，我們清楚地意識到，這將產生我們當時所預期的影響——給終端用戶市場帶來巨大的不確定性，這意味著他們有能力推遲付款，而事實上他們也確實這樣做了。

Then we needed to better align ourselves accordingly. So what we've done has really been throughout the year. It wasn't, we arrived in Q3 and decided to do certain things. It's been more of a full-year approach and I again thank the Allison team for their managing that situation in a way that is certainly consistent with our view, which is what we can control and really looking at the broader markets in terms of feedback to take whatever advantage we can, but also I think understanding the voice of the market in terms of what's needed -- absolutely needed at this stage, and that's what's been reflected in our activity level.

因此，我們需要相應地更好地調整自身。我們所做的一切實際上貫穿全年。並非到了第三季才決定採取某些措施，而是採取了貫穿全年的策略。我再次感謝艾里森團隊，他們以一種與我們觀點完全一致的方式處理了這種情況，即我們能夠控制的事情，並真正關注更廣泛的市場反饋，以便抓住一切可能的優勢。同時，我認為理解市場的需求——在這個階段絕對必要——也至關重要，而這體現在我們的業務活動水平上。

Tami Zakaria, J.P. Morgan..

塔米·扎卡里亞，摩根大通公司。

I wanted to ask about tariffs. Given the latest section 232 announcement, how should we think about your tariff impacts if there was any at all before this and also the ability to offset some of these past tariffs given your US based manufacturing, so any color on the latest about tariffs would be helpful.

我想諮詢一下關稅問題。鑑於最近公佈的第232條款，我們應該如何看待貴公司先前可能受到的關稅影響（如果有的話）？考慮到貴公司在美國的生產製造，是否有能力抵銷部分過去的關稅影響？任何關於最新關稅資訊都將不勝感激。

Sure, Tami, this is Fred.

當然，塔米，這是弗雷德。

I think first maybe you just stepping back, big picture, and our guide is $3 billion in revenue. That's down $250 million year over year, so down 7%. They talked through certainly the driver is our largest end market, North America On-Highway, primarily Class 6, 7, Class 8 straight, which are 80% of that total end market and the bills just being down.

我認為首先或許應該從宏觀角度來看，我們的目標營收是30億美元。這比去年同期下降了2.5億美元，也就是下降了7%。他們討論過，主要驅動因素是我們最大的終端市場——北美公路運輸市場，尤其是6級、7級和8級公路運輸市場，這些市場佔整個終端市場的80%，而帳單金額的下降正是造成這一局面的原因。

But operationally, we're performing at a very high level, 7% revenue down and EBITDA margin we're guiding to being the 80 basis points up. So certainly we're able to perform well in this challenging environment.

但從營運層面來看，我們表現非常出色，營收下降7%，預計EBITDA利潤率將提高80個基點。因此，我們完全有能力在這種充滿挑戰的環境下取得良好業績。

Specific to tariffs, it's really important to continue to highlight that 85% of our components are purchased in the US, Mexico, and Canada with the majority of those being in the US. The bigger impact on tariffs and then section 232 tariffs becomes, I think, vehicle pricing, total uncertainty, and how that impacts demand.

關於關稅，需要再次強調的是，我們85%的零件都採購自美國、墨西哥和加拿大，其中大部分來自美國。我認為，關稅，尤其是232條款關稅，對車輛定價、整體不確定性以及由此對需求的影響更大。

But when you think about section 232, our OEMs are certainly going to increase their prioritization on US-made content and components, and that really well positions us as everything that we're providing to the OEMs in the US is manufactured here in Indianapolis. So I think we're well positioned there.

但考慮到第232條規定，我們的原始設備製造商（OEM）肯定會更加重視美國製造的零件，這確實對我們非常有利，因為我們提供給美國OEM的所有產品都是在印第安納波利斯生產的。所以我認為我們在這方面處於有利地位。

As far as additional cost to us, I think you can see in our disclosures, our material cost has been a very minimal because of the -- just the footprint we have from a supply chain standpoint and as we talked about -- we've always intended to offset that and even in a challenging top-line revenue, you see that we are doing that.

至於額外的成本，我想你可以從我們的披露資訊中看到，我們的材料成本非常低，這僅僅是因為我們從供應鏈角度來看的規模，而且正如我們所說，我們一直打算抵消這部分成本，即使在營收面臨挑戰的情況下，你也可以看到我們正在這樣做。

Angel Castillo, Morgan Stanley.

安吉爾‧卡斯蒂略，摩根士丹利。

Just Dave, I guess as you roll everything up that we kind of have in place all the puts and takes exiting 2025. I know it's still early, but if we do assume everything stays as it is today, Dana acquisition aside and assuming you continue to focus on what costs or what you can control on your end, as you noted. Do you believe that I guess ultimately you can grow earnings next year or do we need to see volume recovery in order for earnings to grow next year? How should we kind of think about that?

戴夫，我想說的是，考慮到我們已經為2025年之前的種種情況做好了準備，現在的情況還不明朗。我知道現在還為時過早，但如果我們假設一切都保持現狀（暫且不考慮達納的收購），並且假設你繼續專注於你能控制的成本，就像你之前提到的那樣，你認為明年最終能否實現盈利增長？還是說我們需要看到銷量復甦才能獲利成長？我們該如何看待這個問題？

That's a tough one. We'll provide our guide in February. What we have talked about publicly is, we've gotten meaningful price this year. We'll end up for the year with over $130 million in price, north of 450 basis points of price. And we also talked about the long-term agreements that we've signed. We didn't take all that price in year one, so we have some visibility on pricing going into 2026. Clearly, good visibility on cost structure.

這確實是個難題。我們會在二月發布相關指南。我們公開表示，今年我們獲得了相當可觀的價格。預計全年價格將超過1.3億美元，比前一年價格高出450個基點。我們也談到了我們簽署的長期協議。這些價格並非全部在第一年就到位，因此我們對2026年的價格走勢有一定的了解。顯然，我們對成本結構也相當清楚。

I think what everybody is still really trying to get their arms around is going to be end user demand, and Dave talked to it, the uncertainty with tariffs, the people feel a little bit better with 232 with some -- I guess some level of more clarity now. The emissions change. Is there going to be any sort of meaningful pre-buy in 2026? So fortunately, we have a couple of months to continue to gather data points and really try to model the top line and we'll provide our viewpoint in in February of '26.

我認為大家目前仍在努力理解的，是終端使用者的需求。戴夫也談到了這一點，關稅帶來的不確定性，以及人們對232號法案的擔憂——我想現在情況更加明朗了。排放變化方面，2026年是否會出現任何有意義的預購？幸運的是，我們還有幾個月的時間繼續收集數據，並嘗試建立整體模型，我們將在2026年2月發布我們的觀點。

Understood.

明白了。

Maybe just I guess given the part that you have visibility into that price with the 450 that you did this year, the long-term agreements you have in place, and the pass through of kind of the tariffs that have already kind of rolled through, what's kind of the price increase we should expect next year.

鑑於您今年完成了 450 台的測試，對價格有了一定的了解，再加上您已簽訂的長期協議，以及已經生效的關稅的影響，我們預計明年的價格漲幅會是多少？

If you go back to pre-pandemic, we would pick up 50 to 100 basis points the price and as we've got things modeled out, it's going to certainly be quite a bit higher than that.

如果回到疫情前，價格可能會上漲 50 到 100 個基點，但根據我們的模型預測，實際價格肯定會比這高得多。

Luke Junk, RW Baird.

盧克·瓊克，RW·貝爾德。

Maybe a tricky question to answer, but I'm just wondering maybe what your gut says in terms of how much more leeway there is in the model to maintain similar margins or at least to prevent decremental margins from getting closer, I think 60% maybe is the historical threshold. I know there's you know inefficiencies that were in the P&L last year because of the huge surge in production. You're clearly on the front foot in terms of taking tactical actions plus the incremental price into next year. Just how do you think through those permutations and the level of buffer that's left in the business right now?

這個問題可能有點棘手，但我只是想問您，就維持類似利潤率或至少防止利潤率進一步下滑而言，您認為目前的模式還有多少調整空間？我記得歷史數據裡60%可能是個臨界點。我知道去年由於產量激增，損益表上存在一些效率低下的問題。顯然，您在採取戰術措施和明年逐步提價方面都走在了前面。您是如何考慮這些各種可能性，以及目前業務中還剩下多少的緩衝空間？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Luke, it's Dave. I appreciate the question there.

路克，我是戴夫。感謝你的提問。

So certainly our approach, our history is that we focus a fair bit as we should on margins, and to your question on incrementals and thinking about that the biggest unknown for us right now as we think about the future is just what this overall demand picture is going to look like. We've made, I think, good progress on our growth initiatives.

所以，我們的做法和過去的經驗是，我們非常重視利潤率，這當然是應該的。至於您提到的增量成長問題，目前我們展望未來時最大的未知數就是整體需求情勢會如何。我認為，我們在成長計劃方面已經取得了良好的進展。

The investments have been made in terms of capacity. We'll be winding up the balance of those by the end of next year, certainly early '27. So the efforts that we've also put into resourcing as well and optimizing our footprint again pre-the Dana acquisition, but we feel very good about our ability to certainly come in within a reasonable range of maintaining margins.

我們已經在產能方面進行了投資。我們將在明年年底前，最遲在2027年初完成剩餘的投資。此外，我們在資源配置和優化佈局方面也投入了大量精力，這在收購達納之前就已經完成了。我們對自身能力非常有信心，一定能夠將利潤率維持在合理的範圍內。

So we will size our -- continue to size our investments and initiatives with market opportunities, but to Fred's point, certainly have some initiatives around price and cost line going into '26, and we'll take whatever appropriate actions there are consistent with their market conditions which you would certainly view today in terms of North America On-Highway being a bit of a question mark, but when you look at our business in terms of whether it's [parts-supported] equipment, et cetera, defense, Off-Highway relatively I think stabilized at a lower level right now.

因此，我們將繼續根據市場機會調整我們的投資和舉措的規模，但正如弗雷德所說，我們肯定會在2026年圍繞價格和成本線推出一些舉措，並且我們將根據市場情況採取任何適當的行動。就目前而言，北美公路市場確實存在一些不確定性，但從我們自身業務的角度來看，無論是零件支援設備、國防或非公路業務，我認為目前都相對穩定在較低的水平。

We feel very good about positioning overall in terms of approaching market needs, but margins are right at the top of our list in terms of focus, and we continue to work through our plans and feel relatively good about what we're seeing at least from an initial pass, and we'll provide our guidance come February.

就滿足市場需求而言，我們對整體定位感到非常滿意，但利潤率是我們關注的重點，我們將繼續推進我們的計劃，並且至少從初步來看，我們對目前的情況感到比較滿意，我們將在二月份提供我們的指導意見。

Kyle Menges, Citigroup.

凱爾門格斯，花旗集團。

I understand you're not wanting to give too much guidance on 2026 yet, but I would love to hear your thoughts on what you need to see for international On-Highway to hit your double-digit growth target next year. And then perhaps it would be good to hear an update on how you think the Dana acquisition positions you to win in international markets.

我知道您目前還不想對2026年做出過多預測，但我很想聽聽您對國際公路運輸業務明年實現兩位數成長目標的看法。此外，或許您還能談談收購Dana將如何幫助您在國際市場上取得成功。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, it's Dave.

對，是戴夫。

So on the overall I would say international On-Highway continues to be a very significant opportunity for our team. We're actually in this time of year involved in a number of regional meetings to look at the status of our growth initiatives. I believe the team there is doing a great job identifying a number of different opportunities for us. I think our relationships are where they need to be from an OEM and release plan perspective.

總的來說，我認為國際公路市場對我們團隊而言仍然是一個非常重要的機會。目前，我們正值每年這個時候參加一系列區域會議，探討我們成長計畫的進展。我相信，我們團隊在識別各種不同的機會方面做得非常出色。我認為，從原始設備製造商 (OEM) 和產品發布計劃的角度來看，我們與他們的合作關係已經達到了應有的水平。

There's always been a tremendous amount of opportunity out there. I think the team has become very focused on that, adjusting for some regional differences, the Japanese market last year moved around a fair bit because of emissions and safety rigs and a number of things coming into the market. That's a softer market this year. We expect that certainly to improve next year and again their ability to sell into the balance of Asia and relevant markets. We're excited about -- the team has done very good job looking at applications for our product that certainly make the most sense, but we sell based on value as you know versus cost. So the On-Highway outside North America continues to be a relatively large opportunity for us with very low penetration.

一直以來，市場都蘊藏著巨大的機會。我認為團隊已經非常專注於此，並根據一些地區差異進行了調整。去年，由於排放和安全設備等因素以及一些新進入市場的因素，日本市場波動較大。今年的日本市場較為疲軟。我們預計明年情況肯定會好轉，同時他們也能夠更好地向亞洲其他地區及相關市場銷售產品。我們對此感到非常興奮——團隊在研究我們產品最合適的應用方面做得非常出色，但正如您所知，我們的銷售是基於價值而非成本。因此，北美以外的公路市場仍然是我們一個相對較大的機會，儘管市場滲透率仍然很低。

So as you think about what that means over the longer-term, all the investments that we've made in regional production, et cetera and the investments specifically in China now to really be able to support Asia from the Asian region is important to us. It also reduces costs in a number of other areas. So I think all of that fits together.

所以，從長遠來看，我們在區域生產等方面所做的所有投資，以及目前在中國的投資，對我們來說至關重要，因為這些投資能夠真正從亞洲地區支持亞洲。這也有助於降低其他許多領域的成本。所以我認為這一切都是相輔相成的。

In terms of the Dana acquisition, we continue to work diligently towards closing that. We're pleased with the progress to date, as we mentioned on the calls around the announcement as well as the August earnings call, the attributes are very attractive to us. It's an accomplished team. It's a high-quality business. It really does allow us as a legacy Allison business to have a global footprint that starts to address some of the macro issues that I mentioned earlier.

關於對 Dana 的收購，我們正持續努力推進，爭取盡快完成。我們對目前的進展感到滿意。正如我們在公告發布前後的電話會議以及 8 月的財報電話會議上提到的，Dana 的各項優勢對我們來說極具吸引力。它擁有一支優秀的團隊，是一家高品質的企業。此次收購確實能夠幫助我們這家 Allison 的老牌企業拓展全球業務，從而開始著手解決我之前提到的一些宏觀問題。

It's clear with tariffs and trade developments that there is much more of a focus from a number -- in a number of different regions for local-for-local content. The Dana footprint certainly fits well with that overall outcome, and you can look at that across all of our end markets. So for us it's very attractive to have access to that type of footprint. It also allows us to further analyze, make versus buy in a number of areas for our products as well. And ultimately really start to leverage, although we've not quantified revenue synergies, we do have common customers in a number of different end markets, but also allowing our respective teams access to new customers, new markets. So overall I think it's an exciting time for both respective teams, and we look forward to getting the acquisition closed and getting on with the business.

從關稅和貿易發展來看，很明顯，許多地區都在更重視在地化內容。 Dana 的業務佈局與這一總體趨勢非常契合，這在我們所有終端市場都得到了體現。因此，對我們來說，能夠獲得這樣的業務佈局極具吸引力。這也有助於我們進一步分析產品在多個領域的自製與外購策略。最終，我們將真正開始利用這一優勢——儘管我們尚未量化收入綜效，但我們在多個終端市場擁有共同客戶，同時也能讓雙方團隊接觸到新客戶、新市場。總而言之，我認為這對雙方團隊來說都是一個令人興奮的時刻，我們期待完成收購並開展業務。

Thank you. And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the floor back to CEO, David Graziosi, for closing remarks.

謝謝。問答環節到此結束。現在請執行長大衛·格拉齊奧西先生作總結發言。

Thank you, Shamali, and thank you for your continued interest in Allison and for participating on today's call. Enjoy your evening.

謝謝沙瑪莉，也謝謝你一直以來對艾莉森的關注，並參與今天的電話會議。祝你晚上愉快。

Thank you and this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝大家，今天的會議到此結束，你們可以掛斷電話了。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。