Allstate Corp (ALL) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Allstate second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Allstate 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製。

And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Allister Gobin, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想介紹今天節目的主持人、投資者關係主管阿利斯特·戈賓 (Allister Gobin)。先生，請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Allstate's second quarter 2025 earnings call. Yesterday, following close with the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement, filed our 10-Q and posted related material on our website at allstateinvestors.com.

大家早安。歡迎參加 Allstate 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。昨天，隨著市場收盤，我們發布了新聞稿和投資者補充文件，提交了 10-Q 報表，並在我們的網站 allstateinvestors.com 上發布了相關資料。

Today, our management team will share perspective on our strategy and how Allstate is creating shareholder value. Then we will open up the line for your questions. As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will include non-GAAP measures for which the reconciliations are provided in the news release and investor supplement.

今天，我們的管理團隊將分享我們的策略觀點以及 Allstate 如何創造股東價值。然後我們將開通熱線回答您的問題。如同簡報的第一張投影片中所述，我們的討論將包括非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標，其對帳資訊已在新聞稿和投資者補充資料中提供。

We will also make forward-looking statements about Allstate's operations. Actual results may differ materially from those statements, so please refer to our 2024 10-K and other public filings for more information on potential risks.

我們也將對 Allstate 的營運做出前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，因此請參閱我們的 2024 年 10-K 和其他公開文件，以獲取有關潛在風險的更多資訊。

And now I'll turn it over to Tom.

現在我將把時間交給湯姆。

Good morning. Thank you for investing time in Allstate. We'll start with second quarter results and Allstate's strategy to create shareholder value. Then we'll have time to address your questions. So let's start with slide 2. So Allstate's strategy has two components that's shown on the left, increased personal profit-liability market share and expand protection to provide to customers.

早安.感謝您在 Allstate 投入時間。我們將從第二季的業績和 Allstate 創造股東價值的策略開始。然後我們就有時間解答您的問題。那我們就從投影片 2 開始。因此，Allstate 的策略有兩個組成部分（如左圖所示），即增加個人利潤責任市場份額和擴大為客戶提供的保護範圍。

On the top right is an overview of second quarter results. Revenues were $16.6 billion in the second quarter, a 5.8% increase compared to the second quarter of 2024. Total policies in force increased $208 million, it's 4.2% over the prior year and being led by Allstate Protection Plans.

右上角是第二季業績概覽。第二季營收為 166 億美元，與 2024 年第二季相比成長 5.8%。有效保單總額增加了 2.08 億美元，比上年增長 4.2%，主要由 Allstate Protection Plans 主導。

Personal property-liability policies in force increased by 0.8 points. Net income was $2.1 billion, and adjusted net income was $1.6 billion or $5.94 per diluted share. Adjusted net income return on equity was 28.6% over the trailing 12 months. And we create shareholder value by delivering excellent operating results, you see up top, growing the personal property-liability business through the transformer growth strategy, expanding protection services and proactively investing our $77 billion portfolio.

個人財產責任保險有效率增加了0.8個百分點。淨收入為 21 億美元，調整後淨收入為 16 億美元，即每股稀釋收入 5.94 美元。過去 12 個月調整後的淨收入股本回報率為 28.6%。我們透過提供出色的經營績效來創造股東價值，正如您在最上面看到的，透過轉型成長策略發展個人財產責任業務，擴大保護服務並積極投資我們 770 億美元的投資組合。

So let's go through those three points, starting on slide 3. Transformative growth has five phases, and we're now sadly in Phase 4 with progress on each of the five subcomponents. New Allstate branded auto insurance products, which are more affordable, simple and connected or being implemented. The new auto insurance product is available in 40 states, and we're rolling out the same type of product for homeowners and we're in 16 states now.

那麼讓我們從投影片 3 開始討論這三點。轉型成長分為五個階段，遺憾的是，我們現在處於第四階段，五個子階段都取得了進展。全新 Allstate 品牌汽車保險產品，更實惠、更簡單、更互聯或正在實施中。新的汽車保險產品已在 40 個州推出，我們正在為房主推出同類型的產品，目前已覆蓋 16 個州。

New products are also available in the independent agent channel in 34 states, expanding our risk appetite National General strong non-standard auto risk position. Underwriting expenses have been reduced, supporting more competitive pricing while maintaining margins.

新產品也可在 34 個州的獨立代理商管道購買，擴大我們的風險偏好國家通用強勁的非標準汽車風險部位。承保費用已經減少，在保持利潤率的同時支持更具競爭力的定價。

Increased sophistication of pricing plans and marketing programs have helped increase new business through expanded distribution. Claims processes have been enhanced following the pandemic-related inflation, which is helping us control claim severity.

定價計劃和行銷計劃的日益複雜有助於透過擴大分銷來增加新業務。在疫情導致的通貨膨脹之後，索賠流程得到了加強，這有助於我們控制索賠的嚴重程度。

And then our new technology systems have been employed, which position us to leverage advanced computing and large language miles. Customer access has also been significantly expanded, as you can see in the middle of the slide. New business is almost double five years ago, reaching 10.8 million policies over the last 12 months.

然後，我們採用了新的技術系統，這使我們能夠利用先進的計算和大量的語言里程。客戶存取權限也得到了顯著擴展，正如您在幻燈片中間所看到的那樣。新業務量幾乎是五年前的兩倍，過去 12 個月內達到 1,080 萬張保單。

This is the broadest distribution platform in the industry with new business spread almost evenly between Allstate agents, independent agents and directly through call centers or over the web. As you can see from the first set of pie charts on the left.

這是業界最廣泛的分銷平台，新業務幾乎平均分佈在 Allstate 代理商、獨立代理商以及直接透過呼叫中心或網路之間。正如您從左側第一組餅圖所看到的。

Total policies in force have increased to $37.7 million, reflecting the highly successful acquisition of National General and rapid growth in direct sales. The Property-Liability business is a terrific business with $56 billion of annual earned premiums in excellent underwriting results.

有效保單總額已增至 3,770 萬美元，反映出對 National General 的收購非常成功，並且直銷業務快速增長。財產責任險業務是一項出色的業務，承保業績優異，每年保費收入達 560 億美元。

Turning to slide 4. Protection Services, while smaller, is still a really significant business with 170 million policies in force, $3.2 billion of revenue and $0.25 billion of income over the last 12 months. It's comprised of five businesses, protection plans, auto dealer protection options, roadside assistance, arity and identity protection.

翻到幻燈片 4。保護服務雖然規模較小，但仍是一項非常重要的業務，擁有 1.7 億份有效保單、32 億美元的收入以及過去 12 個月 2.5 億美元的收益。它由五項業務組成：保護計劃、汽車經銷商保護選項、路邊援助、身分和身分保護。

Revenues were $867 million in the quarter, which generated $60 million of income, most of which is from protection plans, which is described in the bottom section of the slide. Protection plan sells protection for consumer electronics, mobile devices, appliances and furniture.

本季收入為 8.67 億美元，其中產生了 6000 萬美元的收入，其中大部分來自保護計劃，幻燈片的底部對此進行了描述。保護計畫出售對消費性電子產品、行動裝置、家用電器和家具的保護。

This protection is basically embedded in the sales processes of a broad group of exceptional distribution partners. Revenues increased by 16.6% over the prior year quarter, reflecting rapid growth in appliance protection over the last several years and success in expanding internationally.

這種保護基本上嵌入在廣大優秀分銷合作夥伴的銷售流程中。營收比去年同期成長了 16.6%，反映了過去幾年家電保護業務的快速成長和國際擴張的成功。

Adjusted net income was $51 million due to higher revenue moderating claims and support costs and operational efficiencies. Each of the Protection Services business has their own success story. Arity, for example, as 2 trillion miles of driving data is now expanding its services to insurance companies and making inroads into mobility intelligence.

調整後淨收入為 5,100 萬美元，原因是收入增加緩和了索賠和支援成本以及營運效率。每個保護服務企業都有自己的成功故事。例如，Arity 擁有 2 兆英里的駕駛數據，目前正在將其服務擴展到保險公司並進入行動智慧領域。

Turning to slide 5. Shareholder value is also created by proactively managing the $77 billion investment portfolio is really an integrated component of our enterprise risk return decision-making. Investment income was $754 million in the quarter, representing a total return of 1.4% for the quarter and 5.4% for the last 12 months.

翻到幻燈片 5。股東價值也是透過積極管理 770 億美元的投資組合而創造的，這實際上是我們企業風險回報決策的一個組成部分。本季投資收入為 7.54 億美元，本季總回報率為 1.4%，過去 12 個月總回報率為 5.4%。

This diversified portfolio of fixed income and growth asset leverages top investment talent to deliver top quartile performance as shown in the table on the right. The largest part of the portfolio is in fixed income securities, which provides consistent cash flow and high liquidity. Our strong credit skills and active management generated first and second quartile performance.

這一多元化的固定收益和成長資產投資組合利用頂尖投資人才來實現最高四分位的業績，如右表所示。投資組合中最大的部分是固定收益證券，可提供穩定的現金流量和高流動性。我們強大的信貸技能和積極的管理產生了第一和第二四分位數的表現。

We reduced the public equity holdings in the second quarter, given the increased risk of inflation due to the new trade policies and the impact of this becomes clear, we'll adjust that position. We also have strong results in the performance-based portfolio of private equity real estate investments, which is a combination of fund participation co-investments and direct transactions. The higher returns on these investments is more than attractive despite the greater variability in reported income.

我們在第二季減少了公開股票持有量，考慮到新貿易政策導致的通膨風險增加及其影響變得明顯，我們將調整這一頭寸。我們在基於業績的私募股權房地產投資組合方面也取得了優異的業績，該投資組合是基金參與共同投資和直接交易的組合。儘管報告的收入差異較大，但這些投資的較高回報率仍然極具吸引力。

Now I'll pass it over to Mario.

現在我將把它交給馬裡奧。

Thanks, Tom. Let's take a look at second quarter property liability results on slide 6. The Property-Liability business delivered strong results, generating nearly $1.3 billion of underwriting income this quarter as average premium increases exceeded moderating costs.

謝謝，湯姆。讓我們看一下投影片 6 上的第二季財產負債結果。財產責任險業務表現強勁，本季產生近 13 億美元的承保收入，平均保費增幅超過了成本的緩和。

The combined ratio of 91.1% was a 10 point improvement from the prior year quarter, driven by improved underlying trends and $376 million of favorable prior year non-catastrophe reserve re-estimates. Shifting to auto insurance on the top right. The combined ratio was 86% in the quarter, a 9.9 point improvement from the second quarter of 2024 due to improved frequency and moderating severity trends.

綜合比率為 91.1%，較去年同期提高 10 個百分點，這得益於基本趨勢的改善以及去年非災難儲備金 3.76 億美元的有利重新估計。轉到右上角的汽車保險。本季綜合比率為 86%，由於頻率改善和嚴重程度趨勢緩和，比 2024 年第二季改善了 9.9 個百分點。

Over the past several quarters, we've seen the favorable impacts of our comprehensive auto insurance profit improvement plan in our financial results. Our auto book of business is now broadly profitable, including in previously profit challenged markets like California, New York and New Jersey, and we are focused on investing in profitably growing auto market share.

在過去的幾個季度中，我們看到了綜合汽車保險利潤改善計劃對我們的財務表現的正面影響。我們的汽車業務目前總體上是盈利的，包括加州、紐約和新澤西等以前盈利困難的市場，我們專注於投資盈利不斷增長的汽車市場份額。

Homeowners results are shown in the bottom right graph. Underlying margins remained strong in the homeowners business with an underlying combined ratio of 58.6%, but were offset by $1.6 billion in catastrophe losses, leading to a combined ratio of 102% in the quarter.

房主的結果顯示在右下方的圖表中。房主業務的基本利潤率依然強勁，基本綜合比率為 58.6%，但被 16 億美元的巨災損失所抵消，導致本季綜合比率達到 102%。

While quarter-to-quarter results can be volatile in the homeowners business due to catastrophe losses, we continue to have strong conviction around our ability to grow homeowners and generate excellent long-term returns on capital as demonstrated by a combined ratio of approximately 92% over the past 10 years. Allstate's homeowner capabilities represent a competitive advantage in the industry.

儘管由於災難損失，房主業務的季度業績可能會出現波動，但我們仍然堅信我們有能力發展房主業務並產生出色的長期資本回報，過去 10 年的綜合比率約為 92% 就證明了這一點。Allstate 的房主能力代表了其在行業中的競爭優勢。

Turning to slide 7. Let's discuss growth trends in the Property-Liability business. In the chart to the left, you can see the composition of Allstate's $37.9 million property-liability policies in force with growth results for the quarter, shown at the bottom of the chart.

翻到幻燈片 7。讓我們討論一下財產責任業務的成長趨勢。在左側的圖表中，您可以看到 Allstate 的 3,790 萬美元有效財產責任保險的組成情況，以及本季的成長結果，如圖表底部所示。

Auto insurance with 25.2 million policies in force shown in dark blue, accounts for two-thirds of total property-liability policies and year-over-year growth turned positive during the quarter ending the second quarter at plus 0.5% above prior year. The homeowners business accounts for approximately 20% or 7.6 million property-liability policies and continued to grow in the second quarter, increasing 2.3% relative to the prior year quarter.

汽車保險有效保單數量為 2,520 萬份（深藍色部分），佔財產責任險保單總額的三分之二，第二季度同比增長為正值，比上年同期增長 0.5%。房主業務約佔財產責任保單的 20% 或 760 萬份，並且在第二季度繼續增長，與去年同期相比增長了 2.3%。

To the right, we provide more detail for auto and homeowners insurance growth rates by brand. We underwrite auto and homeowners insurance business through Allstate agents and direct-to-consumer using the Allstate brand. For higher-risk direct channel customers, we also use the Direct Auto brand, which we acquired with National General.

在右側，我們提供了按品牌劃分的汽車和房屋保險成長率的更多詳細資訊。我們透過 Allstate 代理商承保汽車和房屋保險業務，並使用 Allstate 品牌直接面向消費者。對於風險較高的直接通路客戶，我們也使用與 National General 共同收購的 Direct Auto 品牌。

We provide those same products in the independent agent channel using the National General brand. Collectively, these represent what we call our active brands in market. Auto policies in force and active brands increased 2.4% compared to the prior year quarter. Allstate brand policies in force were negatively impacted by declines in New York and New Jersey, where we continue to focus on profit improvement as our primary operating objective.

我們使用 National General 品牌在獨立代理通路提供相同的產品。總的來說，這些代表了我們在市場上活躍的品牌。與去年同期相比，有效汽車保單和活躍品牌增加了 2.4%。現行的 Allstate 品牌保險政策受到紐約和新澤西州下滑的負面影響，我們繼續將利潤提高作為我們的主要營運目標。

Approval of pending requests for our new affordable, simple and connected auto insurance products in these states would open these markets for growth as margins have improved significantly over the course of 2025. Excluding New York and New Jersey, Allstate brand increased over the prior year quarter.

在這些州批准我們新的經濟實惠、簡單且互聯的汽車保險產品的待處理申請將為這些市場帶來成長，因為利潤率在 2025 年期間將大幅提高。除紐約和新澤西州外，Allstate 品牌的銷售額比去年同期有所成長。

National General and Direct Auto continued to grow at 11.3% and 22.8%, respectively, reflecting our strong capabilities in the non-standard auto insurance market in both the direct and independent agency channels. As part of transformative growth, we decided to sunset the Esurance brand and use the Allstate brand in both the exclusive agent and direct channels.

National General 和 Direct Auto 繼續分別成長 11.3% 和 22.8%，反映出我們在直接和獨立代理商通路的非標準汽車保險市場的強大能力。作為轉型成長的一部分，我們決定淘汰 Esurance 品牌，並在獨家代理商和直銷管道中使用 Allstate 品牌。

And as the new National General Custom 360 product is rolled out across states, we discontinued offering Encompass policies for new business. The continued decline in policies in force in these two inactive brands has created a drag on auto and homeowners insurance growth rates.

隨著新的 National General Custom 360 產品在各州推廣，我們停止為新企業提供 Encompass 保險。這兩個不活躍品牌的有效保單數量持續下降，對汽車和房屋保險的成長率造成了拖累。

In Homeowners Insurance, we continue to see steady growth in policies in force in the Allstate brand as Allstate agents continue to bundle at historically high rates, and we deliver strong new business growth in the direct channel.

在房屋保險方面，由於 Allstate 代理商繼續以歷史高價捆綁銷售，我們繼續看到 Allstate 品牌的有效保單數量穩步增長，並且我們在直接管道實現了強勁的新業務增長。

Moving to slide 8. Let's dive deeper into how expanded distribution generated a 21% increase in personal property liability in new business in the second quarter. Auto Insurance new business in the middle of the chart increased by 24.8% over the prior year quarter and was distributed almost evenly across distribution channels.

移至幻燈片 8。讓我們更深入了解擴大分銷如何使第二季新業務中的個人財產責任增加 21%。圖表中間的汽車保險新業務比去年同期成長了 24.8%，幾乎均勻分佈在各個分銷管道。

New business was strong across all three channels as Allstate agents were more productive and both the direct and independent agent channels continued to deliver strong new business growth. Homeowners insurance new business growth was driven by the exclusive agent and direct distribution channels.

由於 Allstate 代理商的工作效率更高，並且直接和獨立代理商管道繼續實現強勁的新業務成長，因此三個通路的新業務均表現強勁。房屋保險新業務的成長是由獨家代理商和直接分銷管道推動的。

Independent agent production declined as we focused on rate adequacy across a number of states, but we expect to resume homeowners expansion plans in rate adequate markets going forward in this channel. While new business growth is encouraging, retention remains an essential focus to accelerate and sustain growth.

由於我們關注多個州的利率充足性，獨立代理商的產量有所下降，但我們預計未來將透過該管道在利率充足的市場中恢復房主擴張計劃。雖然新業務成長令人鼓舞，但保留仍然是加速和維持成長的重點。

We continue to execute our S.A.V.E. program to show Allstate customers value every day. Employees and Allstate agents are working to improve 25 million customer interactions this year, including proactively reaching out to customers to ensure that they have the right protection at the most affordable price.

我們將繼續執行我們的 S.A.V.E. 計劃，每天向 Allstate 客戶展示價值。今年，員工和 Allstate 代理商正在努力改善 2,500 萬次客戶互動，包括主動聯繫客戶，確保他們以最實惠的價格獲得適當的保護。

This program is designed to deliver an industry-leading customer experience, while enhancing affordability for our customers. We will continue to execute our transformative growth strategy and make investments in expanded distribution, pricing sophistication, marketing and technology, all focused on delivering sustainable and profitable market share growth.

該計劃旨在提供業界領先的客戶體驗，同時提高客戶的承受能力。我們將繼續執行我們的變革性成長策略，並在擴大分銷、定價複雜化、行銷和技術方面進行投資，所有這些都致力於實現可持續的、有利可圖的市場份額成長。

Now I'll turn it over to Jesse.

現在我將把話題交給傑西。

Thank you, Mario. Let's move to slide 9 for an overview of how Allstate's capital management strategy creates shareholder value. Strong earnings resulted in an adjusted net income return on equity of 28.6% for the latest 12 months.

謝謝你，馬裡奧。讓我們轉到第 9 張投影片來了解 Allstate 的資本管理策略如何創造股東價值。強勁的獲利使得最近 12 個月的調整後淨收入股本回報率達到 28.6%。

We completed the divestitures of the employee voluntary benefits business on April 1 in the Group Health business on July 1 for a combined $3.25 billion. That represented 25 times multiple of the latest 12-month earnings for those businesses. The transactions position the businesses for success and allow us to reallocate capital to Allstate's strategic growth opportunities.

我們於 4 月 1 日完成了團體健康保險業務中員工自願福利業務的剝離，並於 7 月 1 日完成了該業務的剝離，總價值為 32.5 億美元。這相當於這些企業最近 12 個月的 25 倍。這些交易為企業的成功奠定了基礎，並使我們能夠將資本重新分配給 Allstate 的策略成長機會。

We continue to return capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. In the past year, Allstate paid $1.1 billion of common and preferred shareholder dividends. Further, this year, the quarterly common stock dividend was increased 9% to $1 per share. We've also returned cash to shareholders by repurchasing $445 million of common stock in connection with the $1.5 billion share repurchase authorization we announced in February of this year.

我們繼續透過股票回購和股利向股東返還資本。去年，Allstate 支付了 11 億美元的普通股和優先股股東股息。此外，今年季度普通股股息增加 9%，達到每股 1 美元。我們也透過回購 4.45 億美元的普通股向股東返還現金，這與我們今年 2 月宣布的 15 億美元股票回購授權有關。

Let's wrap up on slide 10. Allstate delivered excellent financial results in the second quarter. We're serving our growing customer base of 208 million policies in force with broad protection offerings under an exceptional brand with extensive distribution.

讓我們在第 10 張投影片上結束討論。Allstate 在第二季取得了出色的財務表現。我們透過一個擁有廣泛分銷管道的卓越品牌，為不斷成長的 2.08 億份有效保單的客戶群提供廣泛的保護服務。

Transformative growth execution is positioning Allstate for profitable personal property liability growth. Protection Services segment, led by Allstate Protection Plans continues to grow rapidly and broaden Allstate's customer base.

轉型成長執行使 Allstate 能夠實現盈利的個人財產責任成長。由 Allstate Protection Plans 領導的保護服務部門持續快速成長並擴大 Allstate 的客戶群。

A proactive approach to managing the investment portfolio is aligned with enterprise risk and return objectives, and sound capital management will continue to deliver value for shareholders. Allstate remains committed to executing our strategy and is well positioned to grow property liability market share, expand protection for customers and deliver value for our shareholders.

積極主動管理投資組合的方法與企業風險和回報目標一致，健全的資本管理將繼續為股東帶來價值。Allstate 始終致力於執行我們的策略，並已準備好擴大財產責任市場份額，擴大對客戶的保護，並為我們的股東創造價值。

With that, let's open up the line for questions.

現在，讓我們開始提問吧。

(Operator Instructions) Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）Jimmy Bhullar，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning. I had a couple of questions. First, just on PIF growth. Can you talk about the potential tailwinds and headwinds for growth? I would assume that the inactive brands are going to continue to decline, although the impact of that on your overall results should diminish over the next few quarters?

嘿，早安。我有幾個問題。首先，僅討論 PIF 的成長。您能談談增長的潛在順風和逆風嗎？我認為不活躍品牌將繼續下滑，儘管這對你們整體業績的影響在未來幾季內應該會減弱？

And then it seems like at some point, you'll be in a growth mode in New York, New Jersey. Overall, you're not raising prices as much as you were. But just talk about what the headwinds, tailwinds are to growth in personal auto pits so that one gets a better idea on where it's headed from the level in the last couple of months.

然後似乎在某個時候，你會在紐約、新澤西進入成長模式。整體而言，你們的價格漲幅沒有像以前那麼大。但只要討論個人汽車維修廠成長的逆風和順風，人們就能更了解過去幾個月的發展方向。

Hey, Jimmy. Let me start with the growth one a little higher level, and then I'll ask Mario to go into auto. So first, why do you want growth because we're in a [28%] return on equity, and they said you can deploy capital and then your PE goes up. And then you're like, okay, what kind of growth do you want?

嘿，吉米。讓我從稍微高一點的成長開始，然後我會讓馬裡奧進入自動狀態。那麼首先，為什麼你想要成長，因為我們的股本回報率為 [28%]，他們說你可以部署資本，然後你的本益比就會上升。然後你會想，好吧，你想要什麼樣的成長？

In the Personal Property-Liability business, we obviously have had huge growth in revenues, and that translates into not just higher absolute dollar earnings per share, but it also translates into higher investment income, which you can see because the investment portfolio goes up.

在個人財產責任業務方面，我們的收入顯然取得了巨大的成長，這不僅意味著每股絕對美元收益更高，而且還意味著投資收益更高，這一點你可以透過投資組合的增加看到。

And then, of course, you also want to have PIF growth, as you point out. And there's PIF growth in homeowners, you see has been terrific, particularly when you take out the inactive brands. And then Mario will talk about what we're doing in auto insurance, but we are completely committed to growth and believe that transformative growth is working today, and we'll continue to build momentum there.

當然，正如您所指出的，您也希望 PIF 能夠成長。您會發現，房主的 PIF 成長非常可觀，特別是當您去除不活躍的品牌時。然後馬裡奧將談論我們在汽車保險領域所做的工作，但我們完全致力於成長，並相信變革性成長正在發揮作用，我們將繼續在那裡積累動力。

Then you can go a little broader and say, well, how are we doing on growth in Protection Services and you can see that's been a terrific growth story as well. So we have a variety of ways that we're focused on continuing to leverage our capital. Mario, you want to jump into auto insurance?

然後你可以更廣泛地了解一下，好吧，我們在保護服務方面的成長情況如何，你會發現這也是一個了不起的成長故事。因此，我們採用多種方法來專注於繼續利用我們的資本。馬裡奧，你想進軍汽車保險業嗎？

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Jimmy. So maybe I'll start with the inactive brand comment you made, which is spot on as the business in those brands because we're not writing any new business in those brands, continues to decline, we would expect the rate of decline to diminish going forward. So I think you're exactly right on that one.

是的。謝謝你的提問，吉米。因此，也許我應該從您所說的不活躍品牌評論開始，這是正確的，因為這些品牌的業務（因為我們沒有在這些品牌中開展任何新業務）持續下滑，我們預計未來下滑率會下降。所以我認為你這一點完全正確。

Maybe I'll jump to the tailwinds, and I think Tom touched on all when he talked about transformative growth. I think all the components of transformative growth whether it's the new product offering with affordable Simple Connected, Custom360 in the IA channel, new technology, higher and more sophisticated marketing, our broad distribution capabilities the improvements in competitive position.

也許我會順風而行，我認為湯姆在談到變革性成長時已經觸及了所有內容。我認為變革性成長的所有要素，無論是價格實惠的 Simple Connected 新產品、IA 管道中的 Custom360、新技術、更高級、更複雜的營銷、我們廣泛的分銷能力以及競爭地位的提升。

All the components of transformative growth have created tailwinds for us that are really generating significant amounts of new business, and we're going to continue to leverage and build on those capabilities going forward.

轉型成長的所有要素都為我們創造了順風，真正產生了大量新業務，我們將繼續利用和發展這些能力。

And then I'll end with New York and New Jersey. The punchline in those two states is we are now generating an underwriting profit, both in New York and New Jersey. We've been working closely with the two insurance departments over the last several years to get our rates to an adequate level, and we feel confident that we're at a point where we are rate adequate given the rates, we've received approval for, including upcoming rates in New York that are going to be effective in August.

最後我將以紐約和新澤西作為結束。這兩個州的妙處在於我們現在在紐約和新澤西都產生了承保利潤。過去幾年來，我們一直與兩個保險部門密切合作，以使我們的費率達到適當的水平，並且我們相信，考慮到我們已經獲得批准的費率，包括即將於 8 月份在紐約生效的費率，我們的費率已經足夠。

So we feel good about the positioning. The last domino that we need to fall is we've made filings for our new affordable, simple and connected auto product in both of those states. As soon as we get regulatory approval, we think we can broaden our risk aperture a bit in those states and look to lean in and start to grow in those. So we're optimistic that will happen here in the second half of the year.

因此我們對這個定位感到滿意。我們需要推倒的最後一張骨牌是，我們已經在這兩個州為我們新的經濟實惠、簡單且連網的汽車產品提交了申請。一旦我們獲得監管部門的批准，我們認為我們可以在這些州稍微擴大我們的風險範圍，並尋求在這些州開始發展。因此，我們樂觀地認為這將在今年下半年實現。

Okay. Thank you. And then how do you think about the lifetime profitability of the business that you're putting on in independent agency and direct versus the captive business, which obviously wasn't growing in the past but was highly profitable.

好的。謝謝。那麼，您如何看待獨立代理商和直銷業務與專屬業務的終身獲利能力呢？專屬業務在過去顯然沒有成長，但利潤很高。

So I think last year, there are concerns that you weren't growing. Now, there are concerns you're making too much money and maybe the profitability of the newer growth is in a trade. But just talk about like the margin profile of independent agency and direct that you're writing versus captive reasons.

所以我認為去年人們擔心你們沒有成長。現在，人們擔心你賺了太多的錢，也許新成長的獲利能力在於交易。但只談論獨立機構的利潤概況以及您所寫的直接與專屬原因的對比。

Jimmy, I'll start, and then Mario might want to jump in as well. So everything we write, we like the right lifetime value. We have a very sophisticated analytical system, which looks at marketing costs, distribution expenses, lifetime value not just by channel, but by risk level, by expected retention. And so, we feel really good about lifetime value. We have a really good clean book.

吉米，我先開始，然後馬裡奧可能也想加入。因此，我們所寫的每件事，我們都喜歡正確的生命週期價值。我們擁有非常複雜的分析系統，它不僅透過管道來衡量行銷成本、分銷費用和終身價值，還透過風險等級和預期保留率來衡量。因此，我們對終身價值感到非常滿意。我們有一本非常好的乾淨書。

Greg Peters, Raymond James.

格雷格彼得斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Good morning, everyone. So I guess the first question, I'll focus on frequency and technology. Can you talk a little bit about the frequency trends. And one of the things that seems to be popping up more and more is embedded technology and accident-avoidance technology that's specifically going into cars, and the longer-term consequences of autonomous driving? And just curious for your updated views on that.

大家早安。所以我想第一個問題，我將重點放在頻率和技術。能稍微談談頻率趨勢嗎？似乎越來越多出現的一件事是專門用於汽車的嵌入式技術和事故避免技術，以及自動駕駛的長期後果？我只是好奇您對此的最新看法。

Let me start and then Mario, maybe you can jump into current results to makes sense. Greg, so first, on autonomous driving, I think 15 years ago, 14 years ago, we did some scenario planning on autonomous driving and said what impact will it have on auto insurance.

讓我開始，然後馬裡奧，也許你可以跳到目前的結果來理解。格雷格，首先，關於自動駕駛，我想在 15 年前、14 年前，我們就對自動駕駛做了一些情境規劃，並討論了它會對汽車保險產生什麼影響。

And the conclusions we came to then are still pretty much applicable today. It was that there is an engineering issue to be solved, but then there's also an economic issue to be sold. I believe the -- John Dugenske, I would just out of Waymo, I believe the engineering problem has been solved. And that the economic issue is still in front of it.

我們當時的結論至今仍然適用。這是因為有一個工程問題需要解決，但也有一個經濟問題需要解決。我相信－John Dugenske，我剛離開 Waymo，我相信工程問題已經解決了。經濟問題仍然擺在它面前。

Let's call 280 million cars in the United States that have a value of [$4 trillion]. And if you want to pick a whole system, you get a turnover that lot whole fleet. It will happen over time. Those economic barriers will come down. But in the meantime, what we thought would happen, which is that frequency kind of gradually comes down as the fleet turns over, but the cost of repairing cars goes up as those cars get more expensive when side view mirrors are worth $1,000 now instead of $200 because they got those little flashers on them. So you've seen that play out. We think that will be a continued trend.

假設美國有 2.8 億輛汽車，價值[4兆美元]。如果你想選擇一個完整的系統，那麼你將獲得整個船隊的營業額。隨著時間的推移，它就會發生。這些經濟障礙將會消失。但同時，我們認為會發生的情況是，隨著車隊的周轉，維修頻率會逐漸下降，但汽車維修成本會上升，因為當汽車裝有小閃光燈時，側視鏡的價值將從現在的 200 美元增加到 1,000 美元，從而變得更加昂貴。所以你已經看到那一幕了。我們認為這將是一個持續的趨勢。

That's one of the reasons why we are leaning in heavily into Arity and telematics, which is as cars get connected, not only will it change how often they get an accident and how much cost is fixed, but it will help improve the overall efficiency of the personal transportation system. And while we don't talk much about it from a strategy standpoint, we believe that we've got great optionality with Arity to leverage it.

這就是我們大力推崇 Arity 和遠端資訊處理的原因之一，因為隨著汽車聯網，它不僅會改變汽車發生事故的頻率和固定成本，而且還將有助於提高個人交通系統的整體效率。雖然我們從戰略角度對此談論不多，但我們相信，Arity 為我們提供了很大的選擇性，可以利用它。

Mario, do you want to talk about current frequency because Greg might be also like just current results.

馬裡奧，你想談談目前的頻率嗎？因為格雷格可能也只喜歡目前的結果。

Yeah. Sure. Thanks, Greg, for the question. So look, I think broadly on frequency, what we and the industry have experienced really over the last, call it, six quarters or so is kind of the continuation of maybe the trend prior to COVID of this downward trend in auto frequency.

是的。當然。謝謝格雷格提出的問題。所以，我認為從頻率上看，我們和產業在過去六個季度左右所經歷的可能是 COVID 之前汽車頻率下降趨勢的延續。

Obviously, there was a lot of noise during COVID and post COVID as driving behavior shift around quite a bit. But we're seeing favorable frequency and it's driven by the kind of things Tom talked about from a technology perspective, whether it's blind spot monitoring, lane departure warnings, other advanced safety features that are in vehicles that I think are showing up in improved auto frequency for the industry.

顯然，由於駕駛行為發生了很大變化，在新冠疫情期間和疫情之後，出現了許多噪音。但我們看到了有利的頻率，這是由湯姆從技術角度談論的事情所驅動的，無論是盲點監控、車道偏離警告，還是車輛上的其他先進安全功能，我認為這些功能正在提高行業的汽車頻率。

The other data point I'd use is as we look at our Arity telematics data, over the last year or so. We've seen miles per operator drop around 3% or so, which is likely also contributing to favorability and frequency. But favorable frequency is certainly a component of the loss cost trend that we've seen.

我要使用的另一個數據點是我們查看過去一年左右的 Arity 遠端資訊處理資料。我們發現每位業者的里程數下降了約 3% 左右，這也可能有助於提高受歡迎程度和頻率。但有利的頻率肯定是我們所看到的損失成本趨勢的一個組成部分。

And you saw in the supplement pure premium is down almost 3% year-over-year. That's mainly favorable frequency partially offset with higher severity and particularly in the injury coverages, but favorable frequency trends that have persisted over a long period of time.

您可以在補充資料中看到，純保費較去年同期下降了近 3%。這主要是有利的頻率，但被更高的嚴重程度（特別是在傷害覆蓋範圍內）部分抵消，但有利的頻率趨勢已經持續了很長一段時間。

I'm going to pivot for my follow-up question to the reinsurance program. You put up some details on how the reinsurance structure has challenged this year. And you didn't really talk about it during your prepared remarks, but probably we're covering -- it looks like you have more limit this year versus last year. Maybe you can just walk us through some of the decisions and how the program looks this year versus last year?

我的後續問題將轉到再保險計劃。您詳細介紹了今年再保險結構面臨的挑戰。您在準備好的演講中並沒有真正談論這個問題，但可能我們正在討論——看起來今年您的限制比去年更多。也許您可以向我們介紹一些決定以及今年與去年相比的計劃情況？

I'll let Jesse go through that. I would just point out that we look at reinsurance really is a source of capital. And so, when Jesse is managing capital, whether that's we use preferred instead of common or we're using debt or any other source of capital reinsurance is just a way for us to get capital.

我會讓傑西經歷這一切。我只想指出，我們認為再保險確實是資金來源。因此，當傑西管理資本時，無論我們使用優先股而不是普通股，還是使用債務或任何其他資本來源，再保險都只是我們獲取資本的一種方式。

Yeah. Thanks for the question, Greg. So a couple of things. One reminder, as you pointed out, we do post a relatively robust supplement that everyone can go through to understand the program. I won't go through each and every detail. What we did add was some scenarios so that you can understand better how the reinsurance programs all work together in the event that there's a catastrophe.

是的。謝謝你的提問，格雷格。有幾件事。提醒一下，正如您所指出的，我們確實發布了一個相對強大的補充材料，每個人都可以透過它來了解該計劃。我不會詳述每一個細節。我們確實添加了一些場景，以便您更好地了解在災難發生時再保險計劃如何協同運作。

As Tom said, though, the reinsurance program and what we ended up placing is always rooted in our economic capital framework and risk and return decision-making that allows us to migrate risk on both a prudent and aggregate basis.

然而，正如湯姆所說，再保險計劃以及我們最終實施的計劃始終植根於我們的經濟資本框架以及風險和回報決策，這使我們能夠在審慎和總體的基礎上轉移風險。

So if I take it to the highest level, and again, I won't go through all of the individual components, our total catastrophe reinsurance limit that we purchased this year across all programs was just over $11 billion. That's up $2 billion from last year, and we saw about a 10% risk-adjusted decrease in the cost. So that's a very good outcome. We got more coverage for less on a risk-adjusted basis.

因此，如果我將其提升到最高水平，並且再次強調，我不會逐一介紹所有單獨的組成部分，那麼我們今年在所有項目中購買的巨災再保險總限額將略高於 110 億美元。這比去年增加了 20 億美元，我們發現風險調整後的成本下降了約 10%。所以這是一個非常好的結果。在風險調整的基礎上，我們以更少的投入獲得了更多的保障。

And we had really good support from both the reinsurance and catastrophe bond markets. And that demonstrates really the strength of our program. Our renewal placement process began just after the LA Wildfires, literally while they were being extinguished, and we still had strong support from, again, both traditional reinsurers and the cat bond partners that we work with to place the program.

我們得到了再保險和巨災債券市場的大力支持。這確實證明了我們計劃的實力。我們的續保流程在洛杉磯山火發生後不久就開始了，當時山火正被撲滅，我們仍然得到了傳統再保險公司和與我們合作實施該計劃的巨災債券合作夥伴的大力支持。

And so, during the most recent period, we did renew the Florida program, and we did add some aggregate limit on US homeowners. And I think you probably saw that we added 325 million of women on an aggregate basis.

因此，在最近一段時間，我們確實更新了佛羅裡達州的計劃，並且確實對美國房主增加了一些總體限制。我想你可能已經注意到了，我們女性人口總數增加了 3.25 億。

So if you think of the overall program, we now have $825 million of cat ag limit that's placed, about $58 million to be clear, has already been utilized for expected recoveries, but that leaves us with $767 million of remaining aggregate limit on top of are very robust per occurrence.

因此，如果您考慮整個計劃，我們現在有 8.25 億美元的巨災農業限額，其中大約 5800 萬美元已經明確用於預期的恢復，但這給我們留下了 7.67 億美元的剩餘總限額，而且每次發生事故的限額都非常高。

So that's, I think, a high-level summary of what we did, the changes that we made. And really, again, just going back to all of these placements are done through a risk and return lens that we understand, as Tom noted, how are we effectively using this alternative capital source to lower our capital requirements and manage risk.

所以，我認為這是對我們所做的事情和所做的改變的概括。事實上，再次回顧所有這些配置，我們理解這些配置都是透過風險和回報的視角進行的，正如湯姆指出的那樣，我們如何有效地利用這種替代資本來源來降低我們的資本要求和管理風險。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的羅布·考克斯（Rob Cox）。

This is Jack on for Rob. I guess looking at the strong exclusive growth that is kind of supporting the auto PIF growth there. As you look at that strong exclusive agency growth kind of over the past four quarters, has that really been driven by either bundling, increased entrepreneurial efforts on the agent store? Are you seeing any shift in customer preferences towards maybe the force versus IA or direct?

這是傑克為羅布表演的。我想，強勁的獨家成長在某種程度上支持了那裡的自動 PIF 成長。回顧過去四個季度的獨家代理業務強勁增長，這是否真的是由捆綁銷售或代理店的創業力度加大所推動的？您是否發現客戶偏好發生了變化，可能更傾向於強製而非 IA 或直接？

Yeah. Rob, this is Mario Rizzo. I'll jump in on that question. So just to give you more context, again, with respect to our transformative growth strategy and the Allstate exclusive agent channel. We've been on a multiyear transformation journey with our agents, where we're looking to drive an increased level of productivity in the agency channel and reduce distribution costs and really focus agents on delivering value that consumers want with a relationship with a local agent.

是的。羅布，這是馬裡奧·里佐。我將深入探討這個問題。因此，為了再次向您提供有關我們的轉型成長策略和 Allstate 獨家代理商管道的更多背景資訊。我們與代理商一起經歷了多年的轉型之旅，我們希望提高代理商管道的生產力水平，降低分銷成本，並真正讓代理商專注於透過與當地代理商的關係來提供消費者想要的價值。

And we've been really successful as we've executed on that strategy. We've segmented agents in the different tiers, depending on performance, we provide support. Depending on those tiers, we've made a number of changes to the compensation program over time, and we've been working on delivering tools to our agents that enable them to live into so what customers really value, as I said, with an agent relationship.

我們在執行該戰略的過程中取得了真正的成功。我們將代理商分為不同的層級，並根據其績效提供支援。根據這些層級，我們隨著時間的推移對薪酬計劃進行了一些更改，並且我們一直致力於為我們的代理商提供工具，使他們能夠透過代理關係實現客戶真正重視的目標。

The net result of that is when you look back over the last several years, we have fewer total agents but our agents are as productive as they've ever been, and you see that once again this quarter with productivity increases up over 20%. And our agents continue to invest in their small businesses.

這樣做的最終結果是，當你回顧過去幾年時，我們的總代理商數量有所減少，但我們的代理商的生產力卻與以往一樣高，並且你會發現本季度的生產力再次提高了 20% 以上。我們的代理商繼續投資他們的小型企業。

And as we do things like invest more in marketing and roll out new products and deliver new technology, all the things we talked about with transformative growth, it's showing up as more productive agency system and higher levels of new business. And we're going to continue to leverage those capabilities. Our objective function is to grow across all channels.

當我們在行銷上投入更多資金、推出新產品和提供新技術時，以及我們談到的變革性成長的所有事情時，它都表現為更有效率的代理商系統和更高水準的新業務。我們將繼續利用這些能力。我們的目標是在所有管道中實現成長。

We think there's certainly more opportunity just given the composition of our book in the direct and the independent agent channels, but that doesn't mean we're going to deemphasize the Allstate Agency channel. We're going to look to continue to grow the way that customers want us to grow in any way that they want to engage with us.

我們認為，考慮到我們在直接和獨立代理商管道中的業務組成，肯定還有更多的機會，但這並不意味著我們會降低 Allstate Agency 管道的重要性。我們將尋求繼續以客戶希望的方式發展，以他們希望與我們互動的任何方式發展。

Got it. And then a quick question on the Canadian business. Appears recently announced it was exiting Canada, highlighting some verticalized distribution of the top market shareholders, could you guys just provide us some insight on the performance of your Canadian business? And any updates on kind of your long-term view of that market?

知道了。然後是關於加拿大業務的一個簡短問題。似乎最近宣布退出加拿大，突顯了頂級市場股東的一些垂直分佈，你們能否向我們提供一些有關你們加拿大業務表現的見解？您對該市場的長期看法有何更新？

We like Canada. We think we can win there. I can't speak for what people are doing what they're doing. Everyone's got their own idiosyncratic issues, but we expect to win in Canada.

我們喜歡加拿大。我們認為我們能夠在那裡獲勝。我無法代表人們談論他們正在做的事情。每個人都有自己獨特的問題，但我們希望在加拿大取得勝利。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. The pace of monthly auto PIF growth, if I just look at a number of units added that slowed a bit over the course of the second quarter, still positive, but it slowed a bit. I was wondering if you could just discuss some of the moving pieces there. Seasonality, anything else that's impacting that? And how we should think about the cadence as we get into the back half of the year?

嘿，謝謝。早安.每月汽車 PIF 增長速度，如果我只看第二季度增加的單位數量，則略有放緩，仍然是正數，但有所放緩。我想知道您是否可以討論一下其中的一些活動部分。季節性，還有其他因素對此產生影響嗎？當我們進入下半年時，我們應該如何考慮節奏？

Good morning, David. David, I don't think we could -- I know we can't give you an answer on a monthly number that would give you confidence in how to make judgments for July, August, September or kind of stuff. I would go up a level and say, let's just look at transformative growth and is transform working. Mario went through that. It has five components to it -- five phases.

早安，大衛。大衛，我認為我們不能——我知道我們無法給你一個月度數字的答案，讓你有信心對 7 月、8 月、9 月或類似月份做出判斷。我想更進一步說，讓我們只看看變革性成長和變革是否有效。馬裡奧經歷過那件事。它由五個組成部分——五個階段組成。

We're clearly in the middle of Phase 4 and all the underlying assumptions we thought were turned out to be true, and we're actually executing on them. Just because you say you're going to build a new tech ecosystem doesn't mean it's going to work? And just could you say you can improve the effectiveness and invest more in marketing, doesn't mean it work.

我們顯然正處於第四階段的中期，我們認為的所有基本假設都被證明是正確的，而且我們實際上正在執行它們。你說要建立一個新的技術生態系統並不代表它會運作嗎？而僅僅說你可以提高效率並在行銷上投入更多資金並不意味著它就有效。

And we've proven and done all that. So we feel highly confident that the growth trajectory will keep going up. But I think looking at it by month, I don't think it's going to tell you much different things happen, different programs happen. We're rolling out different ups, different states happen, people application. I would just be giving you anecdotal information, which wouldn't really help you forecast.

我們已經證明並做到了這一切。因此，我們非常有信心，成長軌跡將繼續上升。但我認為按月來看，我認為它不會告訴你發生了多少不同的事情，發生了多少不同的計劃。我們正在推出不同的產品，針對不同的情況，為人們提供不同的應用。我只會給你一些軼事信息，這並不能真正幫助你進行預測。

Got it no helpful. I appreciate that. And then just maybe for my follow-up, just on the inactive brands within the auto business, could you just remind me when that process started of not writing new business and that drag, I think inactive brands are a little under 5% of the PIF count now in auto. I guess how's longer until we really start lapping those headwinds just level setting that?

明白了，沒有幫助。我很感激。然後也許只是為了我的後續問題，僅關於汽車業務中的非活躍品牌，您能否提醒我，這個過程是什麼時候開始不開展新業務以及這種拖累的，我認為非活躍品牌目前在汽車行業的 PIF 數量中所佔比例略低於 5%。我想，我們還要多久才能真正開始克服這些逆風，達到平衡呢？

I'll let Mario talk about maybe the future. I mean, I don't think we're not going to do forecast by insurance policies and stuff because we've got a customer, we'd like to keep the customer. We sometimes offer alternatives inside the house. But I'll just go back here. When we started transforming growth, it was a little over five years ago. One of the things we said was, we're spending $200 million, $250 million a year on the Esurance brand to sell to direct customers.

我會讓馬裡奧談論未來。我的意思是，我認為我們不會透過保險政策和其他東西來做預測，因為我們有客戶，我們希望留住客戶。我們有時會在屋內提供替代方案。但我還是會回到這裡。我們開始轉變成長方式，距今已有五年多的時間。我們說過的一件事是，我們每年花費 2 億至 2.5 億美元在 Esurance 品牌上向直接客戶銷售產品。

And we said -- and when we started that, GEICO was spending maybe I don't know, maybe it was $750 million or $1 billion. So we had a chance to develop a second brand that would be for a direct. That was 2011. Over time, they progressively kept driving up their spending.

我們說——當我們開始這樣做的時候，GEICO 的支出可能為 7.5 億美元或 10 億美元，我不知道。因此，我們有機會開發第二個直銷品牌。那是2011年。隨著時間的推移，他們逐漸增加了支出。

And so, we get to 2019, and we're like, you know what, like we could keep pouring money at Esurance, so we're never going to have the brand offset hand. So let's get rid of the Esurance brand. Let's take that increment of money that's still behind the Allstate brand, not sell Allstate Brand Direct, which we had not done aggressively at that point.

所以，到了 2019 年，我們就像，你知道嗎，我們可以繼續向 Esurance 投入資金，所以我們永遠不會有品牌抵銷。因此，讓我們擺脫 Esurance 品牌。讓我們拿出仍然支持 Allstate 品牌的那部分增量資金，而不是直接出售 Allstate 品牌，因為當時我們還沒有積極地這麼做。

And let's sell it at a lower price than we sell to Allstate agents. So you can buy Allstate branded, ASC product direct over the web at 7% to 8% cheaper than you would buy to an agent. And that's because when you buy it through a agent, you get to help them an agent. And if you get out, you should be prepared to pay for it.

並且讓我們以比賣給 Allstate 代理商更低的價格出售它。因此，您可以直接透過網路購買 Allstate 品牌的 ASC 產品，比從代理商購買便宜 7% 到 8%。這是因為當您透過代理商購買時，您就可以幫助他們成為代理商。如果你退出，你就應該做好付出代價的準備。

So that was the concept behind what we did. Encompass was slightly different. Encompass was we wanted to have a stronger platform in independent agent business. National General had a platform. It was built on non-standard insurance, but it had a good tech platform. And so, we went to nonstandard, and we said, look, we're not as successful we want to be in the IA channel. So we have to decide whether we're in or out with Encompass. We've decided to sell Encompass.

這就是我們所做事情背後的理念。Encompass 稍有不同。Encompass 是我們希望在獨立代理業務中擁有一個更強大的平台。國家將軍有了一個講台。它建立在非標準保險的基礎上，但它有一個很好的技術平台。因此，我們轉向了非標準，並且說，看，我們在 IA 頻道中並沒有取得我們想要的成功。因此我們必須決定是否採用 Encompass。我們決定出售 Encompass。

There's only one difference is we want to buy you first and then we're going to give Encompass to you and you're going to fold it into your business and drive growth. And that has been incredibly successful as well. So that was the logic behind it. Mario, do you want to talk about maybe it's like the recent efforts that are going on.

唯一的區別是，我們想先收購你，然後我們會把 Encompass 給你，你要把它納入你的業務並推動成長。而這也取得了令人難以置信的成功。這就是背後的邏輯。馬裡奧，你想談談最近的努力嗎？

And maybe I'll break up Esurance and Encompass separately because I think there's two different stories there. So we really, over the last couple of years, have stopped selling new business in Esurance, and what you see as that brand runs off is natural attrition and policies but also in a number of states.

也許我會將 Esurance 和 Encompass 分開，因為我認為這裡有兩個不同的故事。因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們確實已經停止了在 Esurance 銷售新業務，而隨著品牌的流失，您會看到自然的人員流失和政策的出現，而且這種情況也發生在許多州。

As Tom mentioned, we're looking to proactively offer Esurance customers a different policy and sometimes that's effective, sometimes it's not, but that's really both contributing to what's happening in Esurance, and that will continue to run off over time.

正如湯姆所提到的，我們希望主動為 Esurance 客戶提供不同的政策，有時這很有效，有時則無效，但這確實有助於 Esurance 的發展，並且會隨著時間的推移而持續下去。

With Encompass, as we roll out the Custom360 product, which is now in 34 states, once that product is in market, we shut off the Encompass brand for new business. And we also shut off what I would call the legacy National General middle market brand and only write Custom360. So again, once we're in a state with Custom360, it essentially becomes a renewal book that attrits over time. So that's the approach we're taking. And as those books get smaller, the impact should diminish.

隨著 Encompass 的推出，我們推出了 Custom360 產品，目前該產品已覆蓋 34 個州，一旦產品進入市場，我們就會停止使用 Encompass 品牌開展新業務。我們也關閉了我所稱的傳統 National General 中階市場品牌，只寫 Custom360。因此，一旦我們開始使用 Custom360，它本質上就變成了一本隨著時間推移而磨損的更新書。這就是我們採取的方法。隨著這些書變得越來越小，其影響力也會減少。

Yeah. It's a really good point. If you look at the slide on the inactive brands, and you look at homeowners, you'll see that impact on National General homeowners is down because specifically what Mario said, which is we get a much better product with Custom360. We're really good at homeonwers. We know we can grow aggressively in that channel, but you see National General is down because we're doing that transition still.

是的。這確實是一個好觀點。如果您查看非活躍品牌的幻燈片並查看房主，您會發現對 National General 房主的影響正在下降，因為正如 Mario 所說的那樣，我們透過 Custom360 獲得了更好的產品。我們非常擅長房主。我們知道我們可以在該頻道實現大幅成長，但您會看到 National General 的業績下滑，因為我們仍在進行轉型。

Bob Jian Huang, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Bob Jian Huang。

Hey, good morning. So maybe the first one on competitive environment. And this is something we kind of anecdotally addressed, but as you grow in this environment, it feels like more and more competitors are in that call it, 80s and 90s combined ratio for personal auto and then everyone is talking about pivoting to growth.

嘿，早安。所以也許第一個是關於競爭環境的。這是我們透過軼事談論過的事情，但隨著你在這種環境中成長，感覺越來越多的競爭對手進入了所謂的 80 年代和 90 年代個人汽車綜合比率，然後每個人都在談論轉向成長。

Just curious how you think about just new business, retention, ad spending efficiency as we head into this environment where more and more folks are ready to fight with you.

我只是好奇，當我們進入這個越來越多的人準備與您競爭的環境時，您對新業務、保留、廣告支出效率有何看法。

Well, first, let me just -- I think the summary would be we think we're extremely well positioned to grow and earn attractive returns for our shareholders, given what we know with the business. And obviously, we have some competitors who are tougher competitors than others, but we feel competent to be able to address all of those and win.

嗯，首先，我想總結一下，鑑於我們對業務的了解，我們認為我們完全有能力實現成長並為股東帶來可觀的回報。顯然，我們面臨的一些競爭對手比其他競爭對手更強大，但我們認為自己有能力應對所有這些挑戰並取得勝利。

So we say, well, why do you say that? Well, look at our distribution. We've got the broadest distribution, and we can go direct, we can go independent agent, and we go to Allstate agent. And as Mario talked about, the productivity and performance in those, we're feeling really good about the ability for those business deliver. Why are they delivering? Well, because we have good prices, and we've got good new products.

所以我們說，好吧，你為什麼這麼說？好吧，看看我們的分佈。我們擁有最廣泛的分銷網絡，我們可以直接聯繫客戶，我們可以聯繫獨立代理商，我們可以聯繫 Allstate 代理商。正如馬裡奧所說的那樣，我們對這些業務的生產力和績效感到非常滿意。他們為什麼要送貨？嗯，因為我們的價格很優惠，而且我們還有很好的新產品。

So they're not just out selling it because they like us, they're selling it because it makes sense for them. And so we've got -- that's improving customer value, whether that was reducing our expenses to make sure we could have more competitive prices and still maintain margins, as you point out, because we don't believe that just cutting price to grow makes sense.

所以他們出售它不僅僅是因為他們喜歡我們，而是因為這對他們來說有意義。因此，我們做到了——提高客戶價值，無論是降低我們的開支，以確保我們能夠擁有更具競爭力的價格，同時仍然保持利潤率，正如您所指出的，因為我們不認為僅僅通過降價來實現增長是有意義的。

Now we have reduced prices in some states, and maybe Mario want to talk about that, given where margins are but we don't think that's going to take us to a place where we're writing bad business. We have high standards is how we did. The last piece I would leave you with is from an advertising standpoint, we've done quite well on that, and that's also fueling our growth.

現在我們已經在一些州降低了價格，也許馬裡奧想談談這個，考慮到利潤率，但我們不認為這會讓我們陷入糟糕的業務境地。我們有高標準，這就是我們的所作所為。我要告訴大家的最後一點是，從廣告的角度來看，我們在這方面做得相當不錯，這也推動了我們的成長。

Yeah. The other thing I'd add, Bob -- well, just to close out the question, Bob, as we think about the growth investments we've have been making and we'll be making going forward, we tend to focus a lot on the marketing investment because it is so important. But Tom mentioned rate adjustments now that we've been in market with the new affordable Simple Connected product and with Custom360.

是的。我想補充的另一件事是，鮑勃——好吧，只是為了結束這個問題，鮑勃，當我們考慮我們一直在做的成長投資以及我們將來會做的成長投資時，我們傾向於把重點放在行銷投資上，因為它非常重要。但湯姆提到，既然我們已經在市場上推出了價格實惠的新型 Simple Connected 產品和 Custom360，那麼價格就會有所調整。

We go back and continually refine prices as we get more data, and we've improved pricing in a number of states in those products. Those are investments that help drive growth, we continue to refine underwriting guidelines and standards as our profitability has improved. And again, those show up as investments in the business.

隨著我們獲得更多數據，我們會不斷優化價格，並且我們已經在許多州提高了這些產品的定價。這些投資有助於推動成長，隨著獲利能力的提高，我們將繼續完善承保指南和標準。再次強調，這些都體現為對企業的投資。

And then we're doing a number of things on retention. I talked about during the prepared remarks, our S.A.V.E. program and how critically important retention is we would expect, given that the book is well priced and margins are strong, less need for rate going forward, which will certainly help.

然後我們在保留方面做了一些事情。我在準備好的發言中談到了我們的 S.A.V.E. 計劃，以及保留的重要性，我們預計，鑑於這本書的定價合理且利潤率很高，未來對利率的需求就會減少，這肯定會有所幫助。

But we're doing things proactively with both employees and the Allstate agents to proactively reach out to customers and improve retention. So we're really -- it's kind of a surround sound approach to drive growth going forward.

但我們正在與員工和 Allstate 代理商積極合作，主動接觸客戶並提高留任率。所以我們實際上——這是一種環繞聲方法來推動未來的成長。

Okay. My second question, it's a little bit more hypothetical. Earlier in the year, there were about seven states that are considering increasing speed limit and then New York is one of those states. Obviously, you've talked about achieving profitability in New York State.

好的。我的第二個問題有點假設。今年早些時候，大約有七個州正在考慮提高限速，紐約就是其中之一。顯然，您談到了在紐約州實現盈利。

Just curious about as we think about increasing speed limiting interstate highways from 65 to 70, will that have an impact on your frequency or severity especially given that you just recently achieved profitability in New York. Like how should we think about that? Does that matter at all? Just kind of curious.

我只是好奇，當我們考慮將州際公路的限速從 65 提高到 70 時，這會對您的頻率或嚴重程度產生影響嗎，特別是考慮到您最近剛在紐約實現盈利。我們該如何看待這個問題？這有關係嗎？只是有點好奇。

Well, of course, the first thing we want to do is make sure your customers are safe. And so, if the public sector side, they want to increase the speed limit for whatever reason as it is, that's the way it happens. You obviously don't prospectively price and say, because the speed level went from 65 to 70, we're going to raise prices.

當然，我們要做的第一件事就是確保您的客戶安全。因此，如果公共部門方面出於任何原因想要提高速度限制，那就這樣做。你顯然不會預先定價並說，因為速度等級從 65 上升到 70，所以我們要提高價格。

I would just say I'm incredibly comfortable with the precision, with the data we have to be able to price accurately for every individual customer. That's where this is really heading, whether that's telematics, other data we have on people. It's really about giving the right price for each individual person.

我只想說，我對我們的精確度感到非常滿意，我們能夠根據這些數據為每個客戶準確定價。這才是真正的發展方向，無論是遠端資訊處理，或是我們掌握的其他有關人員的數據。這實際上是為了給每個人合適的價格。

And we're well down that path. So whether it's -- it changes in the public sector in that, whether it's autonomous driving or whether it's increased competition, we're really good, and it doesn't mean that any of it is going to get easier or we're not going to have these kind of issues. I would just say we're getting better all the time.

我們已經在這條道路上走得很遠了。因此，無論是公共部門的變化，還是自動駕駛，還是競爭加劇，我們都做得很好，但這並不意味著任何事情都會變得更容易，或者我們不會遇到這類問題。我只想說我們一直在變得越來越好。

Mike Zaremski, BMO.

麥克·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

A question specifically on the direct-to-consumer strategy in personal lines. Do you expect that engine to be very different or much larger over time? I'm kind of thinking kind of macro level? And if yes, would that lead to a higher advertising expense or meaningfully higher advertising expense? Or just kind of -- I know you guys had explained like there's different funnels and terminology, I don't know as much, but it would be more of a shift in terms of the type of advertising spend.

具體來說，這是一個關於個人業務直接面向消費者的策略的問題。您是否預計引擎會隨著時間的推移而發生很大變化或變得更大？我有點在思考宏觀層面？如果是的話，這是否會導致更高的廣告費用或顯著更高的廣告費用？或者只是有點——我知道你們已經解釋過有不同的管道和術語，我了解不多，但就廣告支出類型而言，這更多的是一種轉變。

Good question, Mike. On Direct, it will be as big as many people want to buy from it. So I would say that like that's the way we're positioned. If you want to buy direct from us or over the web, we got it. If you want to buy from an independent agent, who represents multiple companies because you don't really know or trust insurance companies or you want to buy direct from us through our agents because you want help, but you believe in the Allstate brand, we're there in all different ways.

問得好，麥克。在 Direct 上，它的規模會和想要從中購買商品的人數一樣大。所以我想說這就是我們的定位。如果您想直接向我們購買或透過網路購買，我們可以滿足您的需求。如果您想從代表多家公司的獨立代理商購買保險，因為您並不真正了解或信任保險公司，或者您想透過我們的代理商直接向我們購買，因為您需要幫助，但您相信 Allstate 品牌，我們會以各種不同的方式為您提供服務。

You see the -- I think it will grow as part of the book just because when you look at the new business. So it's a third of new business, but it's less than a third of the current policy. So over time, you would expect to see that shift as we grow overall market share. So I'm feeling very good about that.

你看——我認為它會作為書的一部分而發展，因為當你看新業務時。因此，這是新業務的三分之一，但還不到目前政策的三分之一。因此，隨著時間的推移，隨著我們整體市場份額的成長，您會看到這種轉變。所以我對此感覺非常好。

As it relates to advertising, I know a couple of people brought this up in their write-ups last night. So let me maybe go into advertising for a second because I think it's important. It's one of the five components of transform growth. So remember, one of them was increased sophistication and investment in customer acquisition. That's all about marketing. And we've done.

就廣告而言，我知道昨晚有幾個人在他們的文章中提到了這一點。因此，請允許我稍微談談廣告，因為我認為這很重要。它是轉型成長的五個要素之一。所以請記住，其中之一就是提高客戶獲取的複雜性和投資。這就是全部關於行銷的事情。我們已經做到了。

We both increased our sophistication and we've increased our investment. I think there's a little bit of confusion when you looked at the numbers, was it down? Was it up? When you look for the first six months of this year, we're spending more money in marketing.

我們既提高了我們的成熟度，也增加了我們的投資。我認為當你看到這些數字時會有一點困惑，是下降了嗎？起來了嗎？回顧今年前六個月，我們在行銷方面投入了更多資金。

And I can tell you that the economics of that spending are really good, and they're better than they were last year because we were more sophisticated and our brand consideration is higher. So we like that part of it. But it doesn't work just -- in your point, it's interesting because it doesn't just work with that.

我可以告訴你們，這些支出的經濟效益確實很好，而且比去年更好，因為我們更加成熟，我們的品牌考慮度更高。所以我們喜歡它的這一部分。但它不僅僅起作用 - 按照你的觀點，它很有趣，因為它不僅僅起作用。

Two other parts of transform growth or expand customer access, that's called distribution and improve customer value. So expand distribution, you see it and what we've got with a third of the business coming through each of those three channels. So that's clearly working. So you do more advertising. It gets more directed, that direct advertising also helps in the Allstate Asian channel. And then improve customer value is really about the cost reduction we've taken, some of which show up in the Esurance and Encompass piece, but also what we've done with the new ASC products.

轉變成長或擴大客戶管道的另外兩個部分，即分銷和提高客戶價值。因此，擴大分銷，您會看到，我們的三分之一業務來自這三個管道。這顯然是有效的。所以你做更多的廣告。它變得更有針對性，直接廣告也有助於 Allstate 亞洲頻道。然後提高客戶價值實際上就是我們採取的成本削減措施，其中一些體現在 Esurance 和 Encompass 部分，但也體現在我們對新 ASC 產品所做的改進上。

So the marketing pieces working the other piece. And so, when you look at the breadth of that we feel highly confident that the overall total will grow and it will grow the way customers want to buy. You want Allstate agent, we got that. We want to go through an agent, we're there for you. You want to buy direct. And we'll take as much of the market we can get and we still got about 90% of the market to go capture. So I'm not worried about any of those.

因此，行銷部分與其他部分相互影響。因此，當你看到它的廣度時，我們非常有信心，總量將會成長，並且會按照客戶想要購買的方式成長。您想要 Allstate 代理，我們可以滿足您的需求。我們希望透過代理，為您服務。您想直接購買。我們將盡可能佔領市場，但我們仍需要佔領約 90% 的市場。所以我並不擔心這些。

That's helpful. My follow-up is on more home insurance specifically. Based on kind of data we continue to see, it looks like competitors, mostly independent agency competitors are trying to play catch up to your results and tweaking their terms and conditions, et cetera.

這很有幫助。我的後續行動主要是關注家庭保險。根據我們不斷看到的數據，看起來競爭對手（主要是獨立機構競爭對手）正在試圖追趕您的結果並調整他們的條款和條件等等。

I'm curious, do you agree that there's just kind of the wins that you're back because of the competitive environment more so than it has been historically as the industry has been pivoting? Or has that state been kind of not true? And the healthy growth that you've seen over the last year, acceleration has just kind of been due to other items?

我很好奇，您是否同意，您重返公司只是因為競爭環境比歷史上任何時候都更加激烈，因為這個行業一直在轉型？還是這種狀態並不真實？而您在過去一年中看到的健康成長、加速只是其他因素嗎？

Let me make three overall comments that Mario fill in the details. One, we are really, really good at homeowners. Two, I think the competitive environment has gotten -- people have gotten in that are trying to follow us. But three, we are getting better every day and we don't expect our competitive advantage to diminish as we go forward, even though other people are doing some of the things that we did five or seven years ago

讓我提出三點總體評論，然後馬裡奧補充細節。首先，我們非常非常擅長房主服務。第二，我認為競爭環境已經變得——人們已經加入並試圖追隨我們。第三，我們每天都在進步，我們預計我們的競爭優勢不會隨著我們的進步而減弱，儘管其他人正在做我們五年或七年前做過的一些事情

Yeah. Mike, the only thing I'd add is, I think if you look back 12, 18 months, there was less competition, I would say, in the homeowner market. I think the market has gotten a bit more competitive recently, but all the capabilities that Tom mentioned are the reason we never backed away from the homeowner market and stayed and we were able to take advantage of the competitive environment.

是的。麥克，我唯一想補充的是，如果回顧 12 到 18 個月，我認為房主市場的競爭會比較少。我認為最近市場競爭變得更激烈了，但湯姆提到的所有能力都是我們從未放棄房主市場並留下來的原因，而且我們能夠利用競爭環境。

And I think it's those same capabilities that position us to continue to be able to grow in homeowners and grow effectively. And when you look at the things that we're delivering to really build on the strength that we have in homeowners, our new affordable, simple and connected homeowner product, which is in 16 states is another step forward, I think, that differentiates our product pricing and underwriting capabilities relative to our competitors. It's a much more digitally focused product -- our product with a much better customer experience from a sales perspective.

我認為正是這些能力使我們能夠繼續在房主中成長並有效成長。當您看到我們為真正增強房主實力而提供的服務時，我們會發現我們新的價格實惠、簡單且互聯的房主產品已覆蓋 16 個州，我認為這是我們向前邁出的又一步，這使我們的產品定價和承保能力相對於競爭對手有所差異。這是一款更重視數位化的產品—從銷售角度來看，我們的產品具有更好的客戶體驗。

We're going to continue to leverage that going forward. And our distribution capabilities play in this space. Our Allstate agents are bundling at rates that are at all-time highs around 80%. And you saw really good growth in the direct channel, and we're going to continue to build on that growth. And we think we have additive growth opportunity in the independent agent channel with Custom360.

我們將繼續利用這一點。我們的分銷能力在這個領域發揮作用。我們的 Allstate 代理商的捆綁費率達到了歷史最高水平，約為 80%。您看到直接管道確實實現了良好的成長，我們將繼續保持這一成長勢頭。我們認為，透過 Custom360，我們在獨立代理商通路中擁有額外的成長機會。

So we love our capabilities and homeowners. We've been able to grow that business and grow it profitably over the long term, and we're going to continue to take advantage of those capabilities.

所以我們熱愛我們的能力和房主。我們已經能夠發展這項業務並使其長期獲利，而且我們將繼續利用這些能力。

So if you can go to the PIF numbers because I know you're all focused on PIF numbers even though growth comes in many forms called protection services, investment income, everything else. The overall PIF growth in homeowners 2.3%, over 4% in the Allstate brand, which is what Mario was just talking about. We're getting smaller in National General and Encompass, and quite honestly, I'm fine with that because they weren't in good returns back to the lifetime value conversation. This is about increasing lifetime value, not just 1 measure called PIF. It's about driving overall shareholder value growth.

因此，如果您可以查看 PIF 數字，因為我知道大家都關注 PIF 數字，儘管成長有多種形式，稱為保護服務、投資收入和其他一切。房主整體 PIF 成長率為 2.3%，Allstate 品牌的成長率超過 4%，這正是 Mario 剛剛談到的。我們在 National General 和 Encompass 的規模正在縮小，老實說，我對此感到滿意，因為從終身價值來看，它們的回報並不好。這是為了提高終身價值，而不僅僅是一項稱為 PIF 的措施。這是為了推動整體股東價值的成長。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

I had a follow-up on retention. I just wanted to see if you could shed a little more light on what you're seeing across the channels? Just trying to understand, is it the exclusive agent network and retention associated with maybe more people going online or something?

我對保留情況進行了跟進。我只是想看看您是否可以進一步解釋一下您在各個管道上看到的情況？只是想了解一下，獨家代理商網絡和保留是否與更多人上網或其他原因有關？

Or is it maybe some churn in the direct-to-consumer and some of the policies you've grown into more recently, maybe just have a quicker duration to them. I just want to better understand retention and just in light of it being a critical driver of PIF right now.

或者可能是直接面向消費者的某些業務的流失，以及您最近制定的一些政策，可能只是持續時間較短。我只是想更好地理解保留，並考慮到它現在是 PIF 的關鍵驅動因素。

Thanks, Alex. This is Mario. I'll give you a little color on retention. I think the headline on retention for us is really over the last couple of quarters, we've seen retention levels stabilize, but they're still down relative to where they were a year ago. And I think when you look at retention broadly. It's certainly going to vary by risk segment by customers that shop more frequently and maybe shop direct-to-consumer versus those that use an exclusive agent or an independent agent.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。這是馬裡奧。我將向您介紹一些有關保留的內容。我認為，對於我們來說，過去幾季的留存率確實有所穩定，但與一年前相比仍然有所下降。我認為，當你從廣泛的角度來看保留。這肯定會因購物頻率更高的客戶以及可能直接面向消費者購物的客戶與使用獨家代理商或獨立代理商的客戶的風險部分而異。

But I think the broader issue with retention. It is the issue of affordability in the industry. As we and the industry had to raise prices to combat what was historically high levels of inflation, and I think what we've seen is more customers shop and more customers switch into effect from their current insurance carrier.

但我認為更廣泛的問題在於保留。這是產業承受能力的問題。由於我們和行業必須提高價格來應對歷史性的高通膨水平，我認為我們看到的是更多的客戶選擇購物，更多的客戶從他們目前的保險公司轉換過來。

And on the one hand, that creates tailwinds from a new business perspective because you've got more people out there shopping, but it certainly creates challenges and opportunities, quite honestly, from our perspective to improve retention going forward.

一方面，從新的商業角度來看，這會帶來順風，因為會有更多的人在購物，但從我們的角度來看，坦白說，這無疑會帶來挑戰和機遇，從而提高未來的保留率。

And as I said earlier, we're not sitting back and waiting for retention to get better. We're doing things proactively around reaching out to customers, making sure that they have all the potential discounts that are available to them. But they have the right protection the right product, the right coverage levels and limits and those kinds of things to make sure that we can offer them the most affordable price possible.

正如我之前所說，我們不會坐等保留率提高。我們正在積極主動地與客戶聯繫，確保他們能夠享受所有可能獲得的折扣。但是他們擁有適當的保護、適當的產品、適當的覆蓋範圍和限額等，以確保我們可以為他們提供盡可能最實惠的價格。

That's really at the heart of the S.A.V.E. program. And then I think additive to that, as I mentioned earlier, just given where our margins are and the profitability of the book broadly, we would anticipate just needing less rate in the near term, which certainly causes less disruption in the book. But we're focused on leaning in and doing things proactively to change the trend line on retention. And when we're successful doing that, I think that will generate sustainable and profitable growth for us.

這確實是 S.A.V.E. 計劃的核心。然後我認為除此之外，正如我之前提到的，考慮到我們的利潤率和整體獲利能力，我們預計短期內只需要較低的利率，這肯定會對帳面造成較小的干擾。但我們專注於積極主動地採取行動來改變保留的趨勢線。當我們成功做到這一點時，我認為這將為我們帶來可持續的獲利成長。

Got it. That's helpful. Second question I had is on California and the homeowners market there. Would just be interested if you could give us an update on how you're thinking about that market and maybe additionally, if there's any action that you feel will be necessary as some of these moratoriums sunset and you're able to take action if you need to?

知道了。這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是關於加州和那裡的房主市場。如果您能向我們介紹您對該市場的看法，或者另外，隨著某些禁令的到期，您是否認為有必要採取任何行動，並且您是否能夠在必要時採取行動，我對此很感興趣？

Let me address homeowners availability, specifically Mario can talk about what we're doing in California. First, with increased severe weather in most of America's net worth tied up in the houses, it's really important that the homeowners insurance, which is why you see availability being such an issue.

讓我來談談房主的可用性，特別是馬裡奧可以談談我們在加州所做的事情。首先，隨著惡劣天氣的增多，美國人的淨資產大部分都與房屋掛鉤，因此房屋保險就變得非常重要，這就是為什麼保險的可用性成為一個問題。

And in California, it doesn't work today, but it could. It works in Texas. Texas has the same number -- actually has more catastrophe losses, both in types and in gross dollars than those California, yet it's got a homeowners market that's pretty function, and we like it and other people like it.

在加州，雖然目前這種方法還不起作用，但它本來可以起作用。它在德克薩斯州有效。德州的災難損失數字與加州相同——實際上，無論是類型還是總金額，德州的災難損失都比加州多，但它的房主市場運作良好，我們喜歡它，其他人也喜歡它。

So it can work. You just need a system to that California is on a path to try to create a sustainable insurance. Whether they get all the way there or not will be dependent on what they do and what other companies do. You want to talk about California.

所以它可以工作。你只需要一個系統，加州正在嘗試創造可持續的保險。他們能否成功實現這一目標將取決於他們以及其他公司的做法。你想談論加利福尼亞。

Yes. The only thing I'd add, Alex, is in California, and I think there's a recency here last week, Commissioner Lara and the department announced really the last component of this sustainable insurance strategy, which related to using wildfire models. They had previously come out with how they were thinking about recouping reinsurance costs.

是的。亞歷克斯，我唯一要補充的是，在加州，我認為上週這裡發生了一件新鮮事，拉拉專員和該部門宣布了這項可持續保險戰略的最後一個組成部分，該戰略與使用野火模型有關。他們之前曾表示他們正在考慮如何收回再保險成本。

We think that's a constructive approach by the department and certainly a step forward relative to where we were before, which was you just couldn't recoup the cost of doing business and homeowners market in California. And that's one of the reasons that we stopped writing new business over a long period of time.

我們認為這是該部門採取的一種建設性方法，而且相對於我們以前的狀況來說無疑是向前邁出的一步，以前的狀況是無法收回在加州開展業務和房主市場的成本。這就是我們長期停止開展新業務的原因之一。

We're reviewing the details of that release and at some point, will make a sustainable insurance strategy filing with the department. Too early to kind of tell you which way we'll fall on that one. For now, it's the status quo. We're not writing new business in California. But we'll take a look at what the details are, and we'll do a filing and then we'll let you know what we decide.

我們正在審查該版本的細節，並將在某個時候向該部門提交可持續的保險策略文件。現在就告訴你我們將如何應對還為時過早。目前，這就是現狀。我們不會在加州開展新業務。但我們會查看詳細信息，然後提交文件並告知您我們的決定。

Joshua Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Joshua Shanker。

(inaudible) there's a huge surge in the number of policies in Allstate Roadside Assistance. I'm wondering, is that a solution for persistency if you could cross-sell them with the roadside assistance are the captive agents selling that more persistently around what's happening there and why is it happening?

（聽不清楚）Allstate 道路救援的保單數量激增。我想知道，如果您可以與路邊援助進行交叉銷售，這是否是一種持久的解決方案，專屬代理商是否會根據那裡發生的事情以及發生的原因更持久地銷售該產品？

So you're right, the more things you sell people, the more opportunity you have to make them happy. And the frequency of use of roadside is greater than the frequency of use of auto insurance. And so, it makes people happy (inaudible) do you want to talk about what we're doing that?

所以你說得對，你賣給人們的東西越多，你讓他們開心的機會就越大。且路邊救援的使用頻率大於車險的使用頻率。因此，它讓人們感到高興（聽不清楚）你想談談我們正在做什麼嗎？

Yeah. I think you get it, we are also bundling roadside with auto policies that agent sells. So that's 1 of the reasons also we are seeing an upsurge in number of policies that we are selling. So it's a good product bundled with auto, added value for our customers and which is really important.

是的。我想您明白了，我們還將路邊保險與代理商銷售的汽車保險捆綁在一起。這也是我們銷售的保單數量激增的原因之一。所以這是一款與汽車捆綁在一起的好產品，為我們的客戶增加了價值，這非常重要。

Can you talk about your success rate on bundling right now broadly with maybe how the business is running five years ago? Is more successful as a strategy right now? Or is it hard to get people to buy multiple items?.

您能否大致談談目前捆綁銷售的成功率以及五年前業務的運作？目前這種策略是否更成功？或是很難讓人們購買多件商品？

I would say, in total, Josh, we're -- Mario talked about the bundling at homeowners. Soren just talked about the funding there. We're doing much better. Our tech stack is much better to enable us to do that. But we think there's tremendous opportunity ahead of us, whether that's our renters, we need to take a run at renters, boats, I could go down the list of other stuff that we have a great potential that previously, we had some operational burners and technology barriers are doing it with the new tech system, those have kind of gone away.

我想說，總的來說，喬希，我們——馬裡奧談到了房主的捆綁銷售。索倫剛剛談到了那裡的資金問題。我們做得更好了。我們的技術堆疊更加完善，能夠讓我們做到這一點。但我們認為，我們面前有巨大的機遇，無論是我們的租戶，我們需要在租戶、船隻方面努力，我可以列出其他我們有巨大潛力的東西，以前，我們有一些操作燃燒器和技術障礙，但隨著新技術系統的出現，這些障礙已經消失了。

Hristian Getsov, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯蒂安‧格索夫 (Hristian Getsov)。

Hi, good morning. How do you expect the drag on auto PIF growth from New York and New Jersey to be in the balance of the year? Because even if you reopen for new business in the second half, assuming you get the rate increases you currently have filed, I'm guessing you might see some retention headwinds to kind of offset that? Or are most of the retention issues in the past just given the large rate hikes over the last couple of quarters, and these are a little bit more muted?

嗨，早安。您認為紐約和新澤西對汽車 PIF 成長的拖累將在今年年底顯現嗎？因為即使您在下半年重新開展新業務，假設您獲得了目前已申請的加息，我猜您可能會看到一些保留阻力來抵消這一點？或者，過去的大部分留存問題只是因為過去幾季的利率大幅上調，而這些問題已經有所緩和？

We're committed to growth in total. It wouldn't really help you much to give you what we think is going to happen in New York, New Jersey. We just look at the breadth of the new business, look at what we're doing in total, talk about the S.A.V.E. program. Our goal is to increase market share in personal profitability. We're already doing it in home. I'll just point that out, and we think auto is coming.

我們致力於整體成長。告訴你我們認為紐約和新澤西將會發生的事情其實幫不了你什麼忙。我們只是看看新業務的廣度，看看我們總體上在做什麼，談論 S.A.V.E. 計劃。我們的目標是增加個人獲利的市場佔有率。我們已經在家裡這樣做了。我只是想指出這一點，我們認為自動化即將到來。

And then for my follow-up, in respect to tariffs, you've talked about a mid single-digit impact to loss cost trends previously. Can you provide an update on your expectations given a few more changes in recent weeks? And can you potentially quantify what percent of your premium would be outside of your target profitability if we assume those increased costs materialize today?

然後，關於我的後續問題，關於關稅，您之前談到了對損失成本趨勢的中等個位數影響。鑑於最近幾週發生的一些變化，您能否提供最新的預期？如果我們假設這些增加的成本今天就會實現，您能否量化您的保費中有多少百分比會超出您的目標獲利能力？

Because I'm just trying to get a sense of like what percent of your premiums you may receive a little bit more regulatory scrutiny for getting rate hikes just given, you're potentially running at a much better profitability versus the mid-90s for auto?

因為我只是想知道，在剛剛給出的加息之後，您的保費中有多少百分比可能會受到更多的監管審查，與 90 年代中期的汽車保險相比，您的盈利能力可能會提高得多？

So I would just answer, we're going to manage through whatever the impact the tariffs are, and we've managed to profitably. We're don't see this the same as the pandemic-related increase where used car prices up 60% in 18 months.

所以我只想回答，無論關稅帶來什麼影響，我們都會設法應對，而且我們已經設法實現盈利。我們認為這與疫情相關的成長並不相同，在疫情期間，二手車價格在 18 個月內上漲了 60%。

If, in fact, tariffs have an impact on the cost to either replace or repair parts, which we think is likely, given all the trends that are going on, it's totally manageable. And we factored it into how we're running the business today. We factored in the prospect and stuff because we don't set a claim today. It takes us sometimes three, four months to get some cars fixed. So we're in good shape.

如果關稅確實對更換或維修零件的成本產生影響，我們認為這是可能的，考慮到目前發生的所有趨勢，這是完全可以控制的。我們將其納入我們今天的業務運營中。我們考慮了前景和其他因素，因為我們今天沒有提出索賠。有時我們需要三、四個月的時間來修好一些車。所以我們的狀態很好。

Jing Li, KBW.

李靜，KBW。

I have a follow-up question on retention. So as they implemented the S.A.V.E. retention program. Can you add more details on maybe the impact of these initiate patients versus the natural improvement from smaller rate cuts?

我有一個關於保留的後續問題。因此他們實施了 S.A.V.E. 保留計劃。您能否補充更多細節，說明這些初始患者的影響以及較小幅度降息帶來的自然改善？

So the S.A.V.E. program is an enterprise-wide effort to improve customer interactions, $25 million in total, $10 million in personal property-liability, price-related reductions more than 5%. So it's a highly -- some of the $25 million is also obviously profit liability. We've already achieved our $25 million goal, but we are slightly behind on the $10 million for that. So we're going to do better than the $25 million, and we still have a goal to get to that.

因此，S.A.V.E. 計畫是全企業範圍內為改善客戶互動而做出的努力，總共投入 2,500 萬美元，個人財產責任險投入 1,000 萬美元，價格相關折扣超過 5%。因此，這 2500 萬美元的一部分顯然也是利潤負債。我們已經實現了 2500 萬美元的目標，但距離 1000 萬美元的目標還稍有差距。因此，我們會做得比 2500 萬美元更好，而且我們仍然有一個目標要實現。

Got it. My follow-up is on the affordable Simple Connected auto products. So now that you're available in 40 states and representing a significant expansion for the rollouts. Can you provide some more details on the new business conversion rate or retention of these products versus the traditional products?

知道了。我的後續關注點是價格實惠的 Simple Connected 汽車產品。現在，您的服務已覆蓋 40 個州，這代表著推廣活動的重大擴展。您能否提供一些有關這些產品與傳統產品相比的新業務轉換率或保留率的更多詳細資訊？

We don't break out retention in new business. But I would just say, look, we started with affordable and simple and connecting that's what customers want. We've made great progress on affordable. This product is much better on simple we're able to really clean up the whole acquisition process.

我們不會在新業務中單獨列出保留率。但我只想說，你看，我們從價格實惠、簡單和連接開始，這正是客戶想要的。我們在可負擔性方面取得了巨大進步。該產品在簡單性方面做得更好，我們能夠真正簡化整個採購流程。

I think we still have some room to go on connected and so this is a journey not anything. We really like the new product. We like it's close rates. We like its profitability. We like the customer satisfaction, but we don't break out the specifics.

我認為我們之間還有繼續溝通的空間，所以這只是一段旅程，而不是其他任何事情。我們真的很喜歡這個新產品。我們喜歡它的接近利率。我們看好它的獲利能力。我們喜歡客戶滿意度，但我們不會透露具體細節。

But rolling out a new auto product across this company and as fast as we did is really a tremendous accomplishment, and we feel really good about the impact that we have on that. Let me thank you very much for tuning in. We went a little long, but thank you for investing in Allstate, and we'll talk to you next quarter.

但是，像我們這樣在全公司範圍內快速推出一款新的汽車產品確實是一個巨大的成就，我們對於我們在這方面的影響感到非常滿意。非常感謝您的收聽。我們說得有點長，但感謝您對 Allstate 的投資，我們將在下個季度與您聯繫。

Thank you. And thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。