Allstate Corp (ALL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。

Welcome to Allstate's third quarter investor call.

歡迎參加好事達第三季投資人電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, please be aware this call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，請注意此通話正在錄音。

And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Allister Gobin, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹一下今天節目的主持人，投資者關係主管阿利斯特·戈賓 (Allister Gobin)。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Jonathan.

謝謝你，喬納森。

Good morning.

早安.

Welcome to Allstate's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Allstate 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Yesterday, following the close of the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement, filed our 10-Q and posted related material on our website at allstateinvestors.com.

昨天，收盤後，我們發布了新聞稿和投資者補充資料，提交了 10-Q 報告，並在我們的網站 allstateinvestors.com 上發布了相關資料。

Our management team will provide perspective on our strategy and update on results.

我們的管理團隊將提供有關我們策略的觀點並更新結果。

After prepared remarks, we will have a question-and-answer session.

準備好發言後，我們將進行問答環節。

As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will contain non-GAAP measures for which there are reconciliations in the news release and investor supplement and forward-looking statements about Allstate's operations.

正如簡報第一張投影片中所指出的，我們的討論將包含非公認會計原則措施，這些措施在新聞稿和投資者補充資料以及有關好事達營運的前瞻性聲明中進行了調節。

Allstate's results may differ materially from these statements, so please refer to our 10-K for 2023 and other public documents for information on potential risks.

Allstate 的結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，因此請參閱我們的 2023 年 10-K 和其他公開文件，以了解有關潛在風險的資訊。

And now I'll turn it over to Tom.

現在我將把它交給湯姆。

Good morning.

早安.

We appreciate you investing your time in understanding the value creation potential of Allstate.

我們感謝您花時間了解好事達的價值創造潛力。

I'm going to provide an overview of results.

我將概述結果。

Mario and Jess will walk through the operating performance, and then we'll address your questions.

Mario 和 Jess 將介紹操作效能，然後我們將回答您的問題。

So let's begin on slide 2.

讓我們從投影片 2 開始。

Allstate's strategy has two components: increase personal Property-Liability market share and expand protection provided to customers, which are shown in the two ovals on the left.

好事達的策略有兩個組成部分：增加個人財產責任市場份額和擴大為客戶提供的保護，如左側的兩個橢圓形所示。

We now have more than 200 million policies in-force.

我們現在有超過 2 億份有效保單。

On the right-hand side, you can see Allstate's performance for the third quarter.

在右側，您可以看到好事達第三季的業績。

Total revenues of $16.6 billion were up 14.7% compared to the prior year quarter.

總營收為 166 億美元，比去年同期成長 14.7%。

Allstate generated net income of $1.2 billion and adjusted net income of $3.91 per share.

Allstate 淨利潤為 12 億美元，調整後每股淨利潤為 3.91 美元。

Return on equity was 26.1% over the last 12 months.

過去 12 個月的股本回報率為 26.1%。

The property-liability business is now positioned for growth.

財產負債業務目前正處於增長期。

Execution of the auto profit improvement plan has restored auto margins.

汽車利潤改善計劃的執行已恢復了汽車利潤率。

Near-term auto insurance policy growth will require us to improve customer retention and increase new business levels, both of which Mario will discuss.

近期汽車保險保單的成長將要求我們提高客戶保留率並提高新業務水平，馬裡奧將討論這兩個問題。

The homeowners business had good returns and is growing.

房主業務回報良好且不斷成長。

The transformative growth initiatives to build a low-cost digital insurer with affordable, simple and connected protection will ensure that this growth is sustainable.

旨在建立低成本數位保險公司、提供負擔得起、簡單且互聯的保障的變革性成長措施將確保這種成長的可持續性。

Proactive investing also benefited income as the decision to lengthen duration at the right time increased portfolio yields.

主動投資也有利於收入，因為在適當的時間延長久期的決定提高了投資組合收益率。

In addition, higher insurance prices and increased reserve levels create a much larger investment portfolio, which also raises income.

此外，更高的保險價格和增加的準備金水準創造了更大的投資組合，這也增加了收入。

Protection plans continues to profitably grow, and we recently did a small acquisition to expand mobile device protection capabilities.

保護計劃持續獲利成長，我們最近進行了一項小型收購，以擴展行動裝置保護功能。

Let's move to slide 3.

讓我們轉到投影片 3。

Here, you can see the operational execution generated excellent financial results.

在這裡，您可以看到營運執行產生了出色的財務表現。

Revenues increased to $16.6 billion, as you can see on the upper left.

如左上方所示，收入增加至 166 億美元。

Property-liability earned premiums were up 11.6%.

財產責任保費上漲 11.6%。

Net investment income for the quarter was $783 million, that's 13.6% higher than the prior year quarter.

該季度淨投資收入為 7.83 億美元，比去年同期成長 13.6%。

Net income was $1.16 billion.

淨利潤為 11.6 億美元。

Adjusted net income, as I mentioned, was $3.91 per share.

正如我所提到的，調整後淨利潤為每股 3.91 美元。

And then you can see on the lower right that the return on equity was 26.1%.

然後你可以在右下看到股本回報率為26.1%。

This shows that Allstate's operational excellence enabled us to dramatically improve results from last year.

這表明好事達的卓越營運使我們能夠比去年顯著改善業績。

Now let's hear from Mario on property-liability results.

現在讓我們聽聽馬裡奧關於財產負債結果的看法。

Thanks, Tom.

謝謝，湯姆。

Before I go into my remarks on the quarter, I want to call out a change we made to our disclosures.

在開始對本季度的評論之前，我想指出我們對披露資訊所做的更改。

You'll notice that we simplified our protection segment disclosures this quarter to focus on products and channel instead of brand.

您會注意到，我們本季簡化了保護細分市場的揭露，並專注於產品和通路而不是品牌。

For the past several years, we've provided detail on both the Allstate and National General brands separately to create transparency into National General's performance and allow you to evaluate the acquisition.

在過去幾年中，我們分別提供了 Allstate 和 National General 品牌的詳細信息，以提高 National General 業績的透明度，並讓您能夠評估此次收購。

National General has been a highly successful acquisition, since it is now twice its size, generates excellent returns and gives us strong competitive position in both independent agent distribution and nonstandard auto risk.

National General 是一次非常成功的收購，因為它的規模現在是原來的兩倍，產生了豐厚的回報，並使我們在獨立代理分銷和非標準汽車風險方面具有強大的競爭地位。

We're now building on this success by combining operations such as expanding the sale of nonstandard business under the Allstate brand.

現在，我們正在透過合併業務（例如擴大 Allstate 品牌下的非標準業務銷售）來鞏固這一成功。

As a result, performance should be evaluated for the Protection business in total and by distribution channel versus by brand, and that's why we made the change.

因此，應該對保護業務的整體績效進行評估，並按分銷管道而不是按品牌進行評估，這就是我們做出改變的原因。

So in keeping with this approach, my commentary today will be focused on performance on total auto and homeowner lines and production by distribution channel.

因此，為了與這種方法保持一致，我今天的評論將重點放在汽車和房主產品線的整體表現以及分銷管道的生產。

With that as background, let's start on slide 4.

以此為背景，讓我們從投影片 4 開始。

On the top of the table on the left, you can see property-liability earned premiums of $13.7 billion increased 11.6% in the third quarter, driven by higher average premiums.

在左表頂部，您可以看到，在平均保費上漲的推動下，第三季財產責任已賺保費增加了 11.6%，達 137 億美元。

Underwriting income of $495 million improved by $909 million compared to the prior year quarter as improved underlying margins more than offset higher catastrophes.

承保收入比去年同期增加了 4.95 億美元，增加了 9.09 億美元，因為基本利潤率的提高足以抵消更高的災難。

The expense ratio of 21.5 was 0.3 points higher than prior year due to increased advertising as we continue to accelerate growth investments in rate adequate states and risk segments.

由於我們繼續加速在利率充足的州和風險領域的成長投資，廣告費用增加了 21.5 個百分點，比前一年高出 0.3 個百分點。

The chart on the right depicts the components of the 96.4 combined ratio.

右圖描繪了 96.4 綜合比率的組成部分。

The catastrophe loss ratio, shown in light blue, includes losses of $1.7 billion and was 2.8 points higher than the prior year quarter.

災難損失率（以淺藍色顯示）包括 17 億美元的損失，比去年同期高 2.8 個百分點。

The underlying combined ratio of 83.2, in dark blue, improved by 8.7 points compared to the prior year quarter.

深藍色的基礎綜合成本率為 83.2，與去年同期相比提高了 8.7 個百分點。

The improvement was driven by higher average earned premium and improved loss cost trends.

這一改善是由平均賺取保費上升和損失成本趨勢改善所推動的。

Prior year reserve reestimates, excluding catastrophes, had only a minor impact on current quarter results as favorable development in personal auto and homeowners insurance was more than offset by increases in personal umbrella and runoff business primarily related to asbestos-related claims, which was recorded this quarter as a result of our annual third quarter discontinued lines reserve review.

上一年的準備金重新估計（不包括災難）對本季業績僅產生很小的影響，因為個人汽車和房屋保險的有利發展被主要與石棉相關索賠相關的個人保護傘和徑流業務的增長所抵消，這一點記錄在本季度由於我們第三季度停止了線路儲備審查。

Now let's dive deeper into auto insurance margins on slide 5, where you can see the success of the auto profit improvement plan.

現在讓我們更深入地了解幻燈片 5 上的汽車保險利潤率，您可以在其中看到汽車利潤改善計劃的成功。

The third quarter recorded auto insurance combined ratio of 94.8 improved by 7.3 points compared to the prior year quarter as average earned premiums outpaced loss costs.

第三季車險綜合成本率為 94.8，較去年同期提高 7.3 個百分點，因為平均賺取保費超過了損失成本。

Average underlying loss and expense was 4.8% above prior year quarter, reflecting higher current year incurred severity estimates, primarily driven by bodily injury coverage, offset by lower accident frequency as well as higher advertising investments to drive new business growth.

平均基本損失和費用比去年同期高出4.8%，反映了本年度發生的嚴重程度估計較高，這主要是由於人身傷害保險所致，但被較低的事故頻率以及推動新業務增長的廣告投資增加所抵消。

Physical damage severity increases continue to moderate, while bodily injury severity continues to trend above broader inflation indices.

身體傷害嚴重程度持續溫和成長，而身體傷害嚴重程度則持續高於更廣泛的通膨指數。

Our claims team continues to focus on operational actions to mitigate the impact of inflationary trends.

我們的理賠團隊繼續專注於減輕通膨趨勢影響的營運行動。

As a reminder, we regularly review claim severity expectations throughout the year.

提醒一下，我們全年定期檢視索賠嚴重程度預期。

If the expected severity for the current year changes, we record the year-to-date impact in the current quarter, even though a portion of that impact is attributable to previous quarters.

如果本年度的預期嚴重程度發生變化，我們會在本季度記錄年初至今的影響，即使該影響的一部分歸因於前幾季。

For 2022 and 2023, the bars in the graph reflect the updated average severity estimates as of the end of each of those years to remove the volatility related to intra-year severity adjustments.

對於 2022 年和 2023 年，圖中的長條反映了截至每年年底更新的平均嚴重程度估計，以消除與年內嚴重程度調整相關的波動性。

Similarly, in the third quarter of 2024, the full year claim severity estimate went down.

同樣，2024 年第三季度，全年索賠嚴重程度估計有所下降。

So there was a benefit from prior quarters included in the third quarter's reported results.

因此，第三季的報告業績包含了前幾季的收益。

This benefit was worth 0.8 points in the third quarter, with the adjusted quarterly combined ratio of 95.6, as shown on the far right bar.

第三季這一效益為 0.8 個百分點，調整後的季度綜合成本率為 95.6，如最右欄所示。

Now let's review homeowners insurance on slide 6, which generates attractive returns and growth opportunities.

現在讓我們回顧一下幻燈片 6 上的房屋保險，它產生有吸引力的回報和成長機會。

Allstate is an industry leader in homeowners insurance, generating a low 90s combined ratio over the last 10 years, as you can see in the chart on the left.

Allstate 是房屋保險行業的領導者，在過去 10 年中綜合成本率較低，為 90 多歲，如左圖所示。

This performance compares favorably to the industry, which experienced an underwriting loss and a combined ratio of 103 over the same time period.

與同期經歷承保損失且綜合成本率為 103 的行業相比，這一業績表現相當不錯。

Moving to the table on the right.

移動到右邊的桌子。

Allstate Protection homeowners written premium increased by 10.8% compared to prior year, reflecting higher average gross written premium per policy and policy in-force growth of 2.5%.The

Allstate Protection 房主承保保費較上年增長 10.8%，反映出每份保單的平均毛承保保費較高，且有效保單增長 2.5%。

third quarter combined ratio of 98.2 resulted in $60 million of underwriting income compared to a $131 million loss in the prior year quarter.

第三季綜合成本率為 98.2，帶來 6,000 萬美元的承保收入，而去年同期則虧損 1.31 億美元。

The underlying combined ratio of 62.1 improved by 10.8 points due to higher average premium and lower non-catastrophe loss costs.

由於平均保費上升和非巨災損失成本下降，基礎綜合成本率為 62.1，提高了 10.8 個百分點。

For the first nine months of 2024, homeowners insurance generated an underwriting profit of $249 million despite $1.2 billion of catastrophe losses in the third quarter.

2024 年前 9 個月，儘管第三季巨災損失達 12 億美元，但房屋保險仍實現了 2.49 億美元的承保利潤。

Let me provide insight into the growth potential of the property-liability business, starting on slide 7.

讓我從投影片 7 開始深入了解財產負債業務的成長潛力。

In the chart on the left, you see the composition of the property-liability book.

在左側的圖表中，您可以看到財產負債帳簿的組成。

Homeowners, in medium blue, represents approximately 20% of policies in-force.

中藍色的房主約佔有效保單的 20%。

Homeowners insurance policies in-force increased by 2.5% as retention has improved by close to 0.5 point compared to last year and new issued applications are close to 20% above prior year, as you can see in the right-hand column.

有效的房屋保險保單增加了 2.5%，保留率比去年提高了近 0.5 個百分點，新簽發的申請比去年增加了近 20%，如右欄所示。

We view homeowners as a growth opportunity.

我們將房主視為一個成長機會。

Auto policies, in the dark blue, account for approximately two-thirds of Property-Liability policies in-force.

深藍色的汽車保單約佔現行財產責任保單的三分之二。

As you can see on the right side of the page, overall policies in-force declined by 1.5%.

正如您在頁面右側看到的那樣，整體有效保單下降了 1.5%。

This reflects a decline in customer retention to 84.7%, which is 0.2 point below the prior year quarter, but much lower than historical levels.

這反映出客戶保留率下降至 84.7%，比去年同期低 0.2 個百分點，但遠低於歷史水準。

We did have a 26% increase in new issued applications which offset some of the retention losses.

我們的新簽發申請量確實增加了 26%，抵消了部分保留損失。

Now let's go through each of these components to give you insight into how to assess growth prospects.

現在讓我們逐一介紹這些組成部分，讓您深入了解如何評估成長前景。

Let's start with customer retention on slide 8.

讓我們從投影片 8 上的客戶保留開始。

This chart shows Allstate brand auto insurance retention over a 10-year period, which is primarily standard auto insurance risks.

這張圖表顯示了 Allstate 品牌汽車保險在 10 年內的保留率，主要是標準汽車保險風險。

There's a couple of key points I want to make on this slide.

我想在這張投影片上提出幾個關鍵點。

First, raising prices leads to lower retention as customers shop for other options.

首先，當顧客購買其他選擇時，提高價格會導致保留率降低。

Second, the large increases in the last several years have led to a significant decline in retention since 2022, which has negatively impacted policies in-force.

其次，過去幾年的大幅成長導致自 2022 年以來保留率大幅下降，這對現行政策產生了負面影響。

This has, however, recently leveled off as price increases have moderated.

然而，隨著價格上漲放緩，這一情況最近已趨於平穩。

Let's look at the three periods with the arrows.

讓我們看看帶有箭頭的三個時期。

In 2015 and 2016, we raised auto insurance prices, which you can see from the dotted line, because of an increase in the frequency of accidents.

2015年和2016年，由於事故發生頻率的增加，我們提高了汽車保險價格（從虛線可以看出）。

The graph shows how this led to lag declines in retention from 88.2 in 2014 to 86.7 in 2017.

這張圖顯示了這如何導致留存率從 2014 年的 88.2 下降到 2017 年的 86.7。

Over the next three years, price increases were relatively modest and retention recovered, reaching 88.3 by 2019.

在接下來的三年裡，價格上漲相對溫和，保留率恢復，到 2019 年達到 88.3。

Now there are lots of factors impacting retention, such as the amount of new business you write, the risk type of that business, number of bundled policies and specific actions taken in big states like California and Florida, as well as customer satisfaction levels, but the biggest driver is price.

現在影響保留的因素有很多，例如你寫的新業務的數量、該業務的風險類型、捆綁政策的數量以及加州和佛羅裡達州等大州採取的具體行動，以及客戶滿意度，但是最大的驅動因素是價格。

Increased advertising and price competition had a modest negative impact over the next several years, with retention hovering around 87%.

廣告和價格競爭的加劇在接下來的幾年中產生了一定的負面影響，留存率徘徊在 87% 左右。

You can see this in the most recent period, where retention has declined by 2.7 points over the last 10 quarters, which reflected rate increases of 36% on a cumulative basis.

您可以在最近一段時間看到這一點，過去 10 個季度的留存率下降了 2.7 個百分點，這反映出累積成長率為 36%。

Looking forward, we expect lower rate increases given the profitability of auto insurance.

展望未來，鑑於汽車保險的獲利能力，我們預期利率漲幅將會放緩。

This year, for example, Allstate brand rates have been increased by 6.3% compared to 9.5% in the first nine months of last year.

例如，今年 Allstate 品牌率上升了 6.3%，而去年前 9 個月為 9.5%。

Lower price increases should translate into higher retention.

較低的價格上漲應該會轉化為更高的保留率。

To help you model this out, every point of retention is worth approximately 350,000 policies in-force each and every year, or 1.4% of the current policy count.

為了幫助您對此進行建模，每個保留點每年大約相當於 350,000 個有效保單，或目前保單數量的 1.4%。

Moving to slide 9, let's discuss the success we've had in increasing new business levels this year.

前往投影片 9，讓我們討論一下今年我們在提高新業務水平方面的成功。

We continue to invest in Transformative Growth while we executed the profit improvement plan.

在執行利潤改善計劃的同時，我們繼續投資於轉型成長。

These foundational investments enable us to go to market with a multichannel distribution strategy that serves customers based on their personal preferences and has resulted in a 26% increase in new business in the third quarter, shown in the far right column at the bottom.

這些基礎性投資使我們能夠以多通路分銷策略進入市場，根據客戶的個人喜好為客戶提供服務，並導致第三季新業務成長 26%，如底部最右欄所示。

While profit actions previously restricted our new business appetite, rate adequacy has now been achieved in the vast majority of states.

雖然先前的利潤行動限制了我們新的業務需求，但現在絕大多數州已經實現了利率充足。

Third quarter advertising spend was roughly 60% higher than the same quarter in 2021.

第三季廣告支出比 2021 年同季成長約 60%。

In the Allstate Agency channel, the compensation structure was also changed to improve growth and agent productivity at lower distribution costs.

在好事達代理商通路中，薪酬結構也發生了變化，以較低的分銷成本提高成長和代理商生產力。

Allstate Agency new business was up 16% over the prior year quarter, with bundling rates at point of sale at all-time highs.

Allstate Agency 新業務較去年同期成長 16%，銷售點捆綁費率創歷史新高。

The National General acquisition enabled us to grow independent agency new business by 14% over the prior year quarter.

收購 National General 使我們的獨立代理新業務比去年同期成長了 14%。

In the direct channel, we are back to 2022 levels with fewer underwriting restrictions, increased advertising and the new affordable, simple and connected auto product, which is currently available in 25 states.

在直接管道中，我們回到了 2022 年的水平，承保限制更少，廣告增加，並且推出了新的價格實惠、簡單且互聯的汽車產品，該產品目前在 25 個州銷售。

New business is 56% over prior year, and we expect to increase -- to continue increasing volume in this channel, which now represents 31% of total auto new business.

新業務比上年增長 56%，我們預計該通路的業務量將持續增加，目前佔汽車新業務總量的 31%。

This level of new business will drive future growth.

這種水平的新業務將推動未來的成長。

Every 5% increase in new issued applications above the current run rate increases policies in-force by approximately 250,000 items, or 1% of policies in-force.

新發布的申請數量比目前運行率每增加 5%，生效的保單就會增加約 250,000 個項目，即生效保單的 1%。

Looking forward, the property-liability business is positioned for growth.

展望未來，財產責任業務可望實現成長。

Margins are attractive, fewer rate increases should improve retention and the components of transformative growth are working, including new products, increased advertising, lower expenses and expanded distribution.

利潤率具有吸引力，較少的升息應該會提高保留率，並且變革性成長的組成部分正在發揮作用，包括新產品、增加廣告、降低費用和擴大分銷。

This will enable us to achieve our strategic goal of increased Property-Liability market share.

這將使我們能夠實現增加財產負債市場份額的策略目標。

And now I'll turn it over to Jess.

現在我會把它交給傑西。

Thank you, Mario.

謝謝你，馬裡奧。

Let's shift to slide 10 to review investment performance.

讓我們轉到投影片 10 回顧一下投資績效。

Our proactive approach to portfolio management that optimizes return per unit of risk across the enterprise generated strong returns this quarter.

我們積極主動的投資組合管理方法優化了整個企業每單位風險的回報，本季產生了強勁的回報。

Our disciplined approach includes comprehensive monitoring of economic conditions, market opportunities, interest rates and credit spreads.

我們嚴格的方法包括全面監控經濟狀況、市場機會、利率和信用利差。

The chart on the left shows the fixed income portfolio yield and assets under management trend over the last several years.

左圖顯示了過去幾年固定收益投資組合報酬率和管理資產的趨勢。

Fixed income yield shown with the orange line, has steadily increased as we repositioned into higher-yielding, longer-duration assets.

隨著我們重新配置投資收益更高、期限更長的資產，橙色線所示的固定收益收益率穩定上升。

Based on interest rates in the third quarter, our fixed income yield is now generally in line with market yields.

從第三季的利率來看，我們的固定收益收益率目前與市場收益率基本一致。

In the gray bars, you can see growth in the portfolio book value.

在灰色條中，您可以看到投資組合帳面價值的成長。

Since the fourth quarter of 2021, book value has increased by 14% or $9.1 billion, reflecting the impact of higher underwriting cash flows attributable to increased premiums and reserve levels, as well as portfolio cash flows that increased because of higher coupon rates.

自2021 年第四季以來，帳面價值增加了14%，即91 億美元，反映了保費和準備金水準增加導致的承保現金流量增加的影響，以及票面利率上升導致的投資組合現金流量增加的影響。

Growth in assets and higher yields benefited net investment income, as shown in the chart on the right.

資產成長和收益率上升有利於淨投資收益，如右圖所示。

Net investment income totaled $783 million in the quarter, which is $94 million above the third quarter of last year.

該季度淨投資收入總計 7.83 億美元，比去年第三季增加 9,400 萬美元。

Market-based income of $708 million, which is shown in blue, was $141 million above the prior year quarter, reflecting the impact of a fixed income yield that is 60 basis points above the third quarter of last year.

以藍色顯示的市場收入為 7.08 億美元，比去年同期高 1.41 億美元，反映了固定收益收益率比去年第三季高 60 個基點的影響。

Performance-based income of $143 million, shown in black, was $43 million below the prior year quarter, reflecting lower real estate investment results.

基於績效的收入為 1.43 億美元（以黑色顯示），比去年同期低 4,300 萬美元，反映出房地產投資績效下降。

While this quarter's result is lower than our long-term expectation, our returns continue to be strong, and volatility on these assets from quarter to quarter is as expected. slide 11 highlights strong results in the protection plans business, which is one of the five companies in the protection services segment that also includes Arity, Roadside, Dealer Services and Identity Protection.

雖然本季的業績低於我們的長期預期，但我們的回報仍然強勁，而且這些資產每季的波動性也在預期之內。投影片 11 強調了保護計畫業務的強勁業績，該業務是保護服務領域的五家公司之一，該領域還包括 Arity、Roadside、Dealer Services 和 Identity Protection。

The protection plans business provides warranties for consumer electronics, computers and tablets, TVs, mobile phones, major appliances and furniture through strong domestic and international retail distribution relationships.

保障計劃業務透過強大的國內和國際零售分銷關係為消費電子產品、電腦和平板電腦、電視、手機、大型電器和家具提供保固。

Revenues for this business totaled $512 million in the third quarter and increased 23.1% compared to the prior year, reflecting growth in international markets.

第三季該業務收入總計 5.12 億美元，較上年增長 23.1%，反映了國際市場的成長。

Profitable growth resulted in adjusted net income of $39 million, a $19 million increase compared to the prior year quarter, as strong operational execution increased margins and enabled successful implementation of the strategy to expand distribution relationships and product offerings.

獲利成長導致調整後淨利潤達到 3,900 萬美元，比去年同期增加 1,900 萬美元，因為強大的營運執行力提高了利潤率，並成功實施了擴大分銷關係和產品供應的策略。

We continue to invest in this fast-growing business.

我們將繼續投資於這項快速成長的業務。

In October, Allstate Protection Plans acquired Kingfisher to enhance capabilities in mobile phone protection.

10月，Allstate Protection Plans收購了Kingfisher，以增強手機保護能力。

Now let's transition to slide 12 to focus on the terms and accounting treatment of the sale of the Employer Voluntary Benefits business.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 12，專注於出售雇主自願福利業務的條款和會計處理。

As we announced in August, Allstate finalized an agreement to sell the Employer Voluntary Benefits business, which I will also refer to as the EVB business, for a purchase price of $2 billion to StanCorp Financial.

正如我們在 8 月宣布的那樣，Allstate 敲定了一項協議，以 20 億美元的收購價格向 StanCorp Financial 出售雇主自願福利業務（我也稱之為 EVB 業務）。

The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2025, pending regulatory approvals.

該交易預計將於 2025 年上半年完成，尚待監管部門批准。

As a reminder, the EVB sales is the first step in a strategic decision to pursue divestiture of the Employee Voluntary Benefits, Group Health and Individual Health businesses to capture value through greater strategic alignment.

需要提醒的是，EVB 銷售是策略決策的第一步，該策略決策旨在剝離員工自願福利、團體健康和個人健康業務，以透過更大的策略調整來獲取價值。

The EVB transaction is economically and financially attractive for shareholders.

EVB 交易對於股東來說在經濟和財務上都具有吸引力。

Allstate retains the economics of the business until closing, and results continue to be reflected in net income and adjusted net income.

好事達保留業務的經濟性直至交易結束，其業績繼續反映在淨利潤和調整後淨利潤中。

In the quarter, $3.2 billion of assets and $2.2 billion of liabilities related to the EVB business have been classified as held for sale.

本季度，與 EVB 業務相關的 32 億美元資產和 22 億美元負債被歸類為持有待售。

As you can see on the right of the slide, we're estimating a $600 million gain and had previously disclosed that we expect the transaction to generate approximately $1.6 billion of capital.

正如您在幻燈片右側所看到的，我們預計將獲得 6 億美元的收益，並且之前曾披露過，我們預計此次交易將產生約 16 億美元的資本。

Moving to Health and Benefits results for the quarter.

接下來是本季的健康和福利結果。

Premium and contract charges for the segment increased 5.2% or $24 million compared to the prior year quarter.

與去年同期相比，該部門的保費和合約費用增加了 5.2%，即 2,400 萬美元。

Individual and Group Health businesses saw strong growth, with premiums and contract charges up by 8.1% and 20.2%, respectively.

個人和團體健康業務成長強勁，保費和合約費用分別成長8.1%和20.2%。

This growth was partially offset by a modest decrease in the EVB business.

這一成長被 EVB 業務的小幅下降部分抵消。

Adjusted net income for the segment of $37 million in the quarter was $32 million lower than the prior year quarter as increased benefit utilization across all three businesses impacted profitability.

該部門本季調整後淨利潤為 3,700 萬美元，比去年同期減少 3,200 萬美元，因為所有三項業務的福利利用率增加影響了盈利能力。

Underwriting and rate actions are being taken to quickly address the benefit ratio trends and restore margins to historical levels.

正在採取承保和利率行動，以快速解決福利比率趨勢並將利潤率恢復到歷史水平。

The process to evaluate disposition of the group and individual businesses is progressing.

評估集團和個體企業處置的過程正在進行中。

Let's wrap up with slide 13 to recap Allstate's strategy and path to value creation.

讓我們用投影片 13 來回顧 Allstate 的策略和價值創造之路。

Operational excellence ensures that we react to changing business conditions and maintain margins at target levels.

卓越營運確保我們能夠應對不斷變化的業務狀況並將利潤率維持在目標水平。

Transformative Growth investments are being made to create sustainable growth, and Allstate delivers attractive returns.

轉型成長投資旨在創造永續成長，好事達提供了誘人的回報。

With that as context, we'll open the line for your questions.

以此為背景，我們將開通您的提問專線。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

吉米·布拉爾，摩根大通。

So first, just had a question around your confidence and outlook for PIF growth in the auto business and what you're seeing in terms of competitor behavior, both on prices and on advertising.

首先，我想問您對汽車產業 PIF 成長的信心和前景，以及您對競爭對手在價格和廣告方面的行為的看法。

It seems like most competitors are turn -- shifting to a growth mode now that margins have recovered.

由於利潤率已經恢復，大多數競爭對手似乎都轉向了成長模式。

But are you confident that we can see PIF growth turn positive over the next few quarters?

但您是否有信心在未來幾季看到 PIF 成長轉正？

Jimmy, let me make a couple of comments, and Mario can jump in.

吉米，讓我發表一些評論，馬裡奧可以插話。

First, we don't give growth projections.

首先，我們不給出成長預測。

So we're not going to comment on that.

所以我們不會對此發表評論。

We gave you -- we put the numbers in there, so you can do your own analysis of how you think we'll do in retention and how you think we'll do in new business.

我們給了你——我們把數字放在那裡，這樣你就可以自己分析你認為我們在保留方面將如何做以及你認為我們在新業務方面將如何做。

We obviously believe we can grow market share, which is what our whole strategy is about.

我們顯然相信我們可以增加市場份額，這就是我們整個策略的目的。

When you look at the competitive environment, you continue to see progressive advertising aggressively.

當你觀察競爭環境時，你會繼續看到激進的漸進式廣告。

GEICO has gotten back into the market, but perhaps not as aggressively as they have in the past, and State Farm continues to try to grow.

GEICO 已重返市場，但可能不像過去那麼積極，而 State Farm 仍在繼續努力成長。

But as you know, they have an underwriting profitability challenge that -- I suspect they will take on, but we'll only see.

但正如你所知，他們面臨著承保盈利能力的挑戰——我懷疑他們會接受這項挑戰，但我們只能拭目以待。

But I would also not just focus on those big players, but there's a whole bunch of other players that are more moderate size or smaller that either don't have the firepower in advertising to compete or don't have the pricing sophistication.

但我也不會只關注那些大型企業，還有一大堆其他規模較小或更小的企業，要么沒有足夠的廣告能力來競爭，要么沒有成熟的定價能力。

Mario, do you want to make comments about how you're feeling about growth?

馬裡奧，你想談談你對成長的感受嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Jimmy.

謝謝你的提問，吉米。

At its highest level, obviously, to turn positive PIF growth requires that we keep more of our existing customers, which is the retention component, and then we drive increased levels of new business.

顯然，在最高水準上，要實現 PIF 正成長，我們需要保留更多現有客戶，這是保留的組成部分，然後我們推動新業務水準的提高。

Maybe I'll talk about each of the pieces individually.

也許我會單獨討論每一部分。

Like we pointed out in the presentation, obviously, a lot of the rate actions and the profit improvement plan that we've implemented over the last couple of years has had a pretty negative impact on customer retention.

正如我們在演示中指出的那樣，顯然，我們在過去幾年中實施的許多利率行動和利潤改善計劃對客戶保留率產生了相當負面的影響。

Now going forward, we would expect, just given where our margins are in auto, all other things being equal, we would expect to take less rate going forward, which will have a positive impact on retention as it has in the past as we create less disruption in the book.

現在展望未來，我們預計，鑑於我們在汽車領域的利潤率，在所有其他條件相同的情況下，我們預計未來的利率會降低，這將對保留率產生積極影響，就像我們過去創建的那樣書中的干擾較少。

But the other side of it is we're not just going to rely on that.

但另一方面是我們不只依賴於此。

We've got actions in place in a number of areas, both in terms of improving the customer experience, working with our customers, both through our agents and our contact centers to help identify opportunities to improve affordability and really mitigate shopping activity from our own customers.

我們在多個領域採取了行動，包括改善客戶體驗、與客戶合作、透過我們的代理商和聯絡中心幫助尋找提高可負擔性的機會，並真正減少我們自己的購物活動。

So we're focused on retention improving going forward, both organically, I'll say, through less rate, but we're also not sitting back.

因此，我們的重點是提高保留率，透過降低費率來自然地提高保留率，但我們也不會袖手旁觀。

We're taking proactive actions to help offset some of the headwind that we've seen in retention.

我們正在採取積極主動的行動來幫助抵消我們在保留方面遇到的一些阻力。

On the other side, on the new business standpoint, just to give you some context, we talked about the vast majority of markets being open for business, somewhere between 75% and 80% of our premium volume.

另一方面，從新業務的角度來看，為了給您一些背景信息，我們談到了絕大多數市場正在開放營業，占我們保費量的 75% 到 80% 之間。

When you look at it nationally, those are markets that we are open for business.

當你在全國範圍內觀察時，這些都是我們開放的市場。

We're accelerating investments, and we've really seen some good production trends across all distribution channels.

我們正在加速投資，我們確實在所有分銷管道中看到了一些良好的生產趨勢。

Our agents are productive.

我們的代理富有成效。

They're bundling at all-time high levels, which also will help retention.

他們的捆綁銷售處於歷史最高水平，這也將有助於保留。

We believe, over time, we are continuing to see really good traction on the direct business, and we think there's ongoing opportunity there.

我們相信，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續看到直接業務的良好吸引力，我們認為那裡有持續的機會。

And then as I mentioned earlier, the National General acquisition and what we've been able to do both in the nonstandard auto market as well as in the independent agent space more broadly is generating some good production trends.

正如我之前提到的，國家通用汽車的收購以及我們在非標準汽車市場以及更廣泛的獨立代理領域所做的事情正在產生一些良好的生產趨勢。

So we feel good about that.

所以我們對此感覺良好。

We're focused on improving retention while continuing to build on the growth momentum from a new business perspective, which has improved sequentially over the course of the year.

我們專注於提高保留率，同時繼續從新的業務角度鞏固成長勢頭，這一點在這一年中不斷得到改善。

And when those two things come together, that's what will drive positive growth.

當這兩件事結合在一起時，就會推動正面的成長。

Jimmy, let me add just a couple of things on a longer-term perspective, what Mario talked about.

吉米，讓我從長遠角度補充一些馬裡奧談到的事情。

So when auto profitability went negative, we said first priority, get the rate, don't be too specific about it.

因此，當汽車獲利能力為負數時，我們說第一要務是取得利率，不要太具體。

And what Mario was talking about is going back in now and saying, okay, well, we got the total rate. how many more people should be using Milewise?

馬裡奧所說的是現在回去說，好吧，好吧，我們得到了總費率。還有多少人應該使用 Milewise？

How many more people should be using telematics?

還有多少人應該使用遠端資訊處理？

Those are great opportunities for us to leverage our innovation and keep more customers.

這些都是我們利用創新並留住更多客戶的絕佳機會。

So there's a bunch of good work going on there.

所以那裡有很多好的工作正在進行中。

So with the priority that we gave to the team was we need to make money in auto insurance.

因此，我們給團隊的首要任務是我們需要在汽車保險方面賺錢。

And we've done that.

我們已經做到了。

Now we're ready to go back in, and which should drive retention.

現在我們已經準備好回歸，這應該會提高保留率。

The other thing I would say is on distribution.

我要說的另一件事是關於分發。

If you look at our historical growth, this is the first time really we have three fully functioning channels.

如果你看看我們的歷史成長，這是我們第一次真正擁有三個功能齊全的管道。

Like we've got three horses here all ready to run.

就像我們這裡有三匹馬已經準備好要跑一樣。

You can see the growth.

你可以看到增長。

And direct is up a lot this versus last year.

與去年相比，直接成長了很多。

But that's because direct was the first place we shutdown to when it came to how do we get profitability up in auto insurance.

但那是因為當談到如何提高汽車保險的獲利能力時，直接是我們關閉的第一個地方。

We said, well, first, if we're losing money on it, we shouldn't write it.

我們說，好吧，首先，如果我們在上面賠錢，我們就不應該寫它。

Rather than take that hit in volume to the Allstate Agent channel, which needs to be maintained in terms of its revenue and growth, we said let's just do it to direct.

我們說，我們不要讓 Allstate Agent 管道受到銷售上的打擊，因為該管道需要維持其收入和成長，而是直接進行導演。

So the direct bounce back is just where we are now.

所以直接反彈就是我們現在的處境。

But in that pause, we really built out our capability.

但那一刻，我們真正增強了我們的能力。

So we're feeling good about having three horses to drive growth.

因此，我們對擁有三匹馬來推動成長感到滿意。

Okay.

好的。

And then on capital, obviously, your balance sheet is a lot stronger with the improved profitability.

然後在資本方面，顯然，隨著獲利能力的提高，你的資產負債表變得更加強勁。

You've got the pending sale of the Benefits business as well.

您還有待出售的福利業務。

How should we think about uses of capital as profitability continues to recover and once the sale closes between your priorities for acquisitions, potential buybacks, dividends?

隨著獲利能力持續恢復，以及在收購、潛在回購、股利等優先事項之間的出售完成後，我們該如何考慮資本的使用？

Well, a very appropriate question.

嗯，這是一個非常恰當的問題。

I'll channel Jess for a minute here and just say, we've always had a lot of capital.

我在這裡請 Jess 說一分鐘，我們一直擁有大量資金。

I know not everybody believes that, but we've always been financially very strong.

我知道不是每個人都相信這一點，但我們的財務狀況一直非常強烈。

But as we think of our capital, it is something we take very seriously.

但當我們想到我們的資本時，我們非常重視它。

It's really one of the key things we do for shareholders, and we feel like we've been good stewards of that.

這確實是我們為股東所做的關鍵事情之一，我們覺得我們一直是這方面的好管家。

As you look forward, we think the best and first place to put our money is organic growth, particularly when you look at the ROEs we're running at.

展望未來，我們認為最好的、最首要的投資方向是有機成長，特別是當你看到我們正在運行的股本回報率時。

And if you look at our growth in premiums, you look at the growth potential, we think that will be the first and best place to maximize shareholder value.

如果你看看我們保費的成長，你看看成長潛力，我們認為這將是實現股東價值最大化的第一個也是最好的地方。

There's lots of other ways we use it, right?

我們還有很多其他方式可以使用它，對嗎？

So the share repurchases, I know a number of analysts brought that question up.

關於股票回購，我知道很多分析師都提出了這個問題。

I may just go right to that.

我可能就直接說吧。

So we're no stranger to share repurchases.

所以我們對股票回購並不陌生。

Since we went public, we bought back 83% of our shares outstanding for about 42 billion.

自上市以來，我們以約420億美元回購了83%的流通股。

Last 10 years, it was 20 billion.

過去10年，這個數字是200億。

In the last five years, it was about 10 billion and a quarter of the shares outstanding.

過去五年，這一數字約為100億美元，佔流通股的四分之一。

So we know how to and do share repurchases when it makes sense.

因此，我們知道如何在有意義的情況下進行股票回購。

In this particular case, we think the growth opportunities outweigh the value of doing share repurchases.

在這種特殊情況下，我們認為成長機會超過股票回購的價值。

And that's because the returns are so high that.

那是因為回報是如此之高。

Now if we don't -- if you're keeping extra money around and you're putting it in the bond portfolio, you're getting 5%, then obviously, you should not be doing it.

現在，如果我們不這樣做——如果你保留額外的資金並將其放入債券投資組合中，你將獲得 5%，那麼顯然，你不應該這樣做。

We do have other places we've used the money historically and places we might use it in the future.

我們確實在其他地方曾經使用過這些錢，以及我們將來可能會使用它的地方。

So as you know, we dialed down our equity allocation back when we didn't think the risk and return was right.

如您所知，當我們認為風險和回報不正確時，我們就減少了股票配置。

If we feel like that's appropriate, we'll dial that equity allocation up.

如果我們認為合適，我們將提高股權分配。

Again that uses capital -- if we've also looked at acquiring growth, so the National General acquisition, Mario talked about it.

同樣，這需要資本——如果我們也考慮了收購成長，那麼國家通用公司的收購，馬裡奧談到了這一點。

And the reason we kept breaking it up, so you can all see it, is that business just wrapped it's -- twice its size.

我們不斷將其分解的原因是，這樣你們都可以看到它，因為業務剛剛將其規模擴大了兩倍。

And the same thing is true with our Protection Plans business, which is 9 times or 10 times its size since we bought it.

我們的保障計畫業務也是如此，自從我們收購以來，它的規模擴大了 9 倍或 10 倍。

And that was a little longer ago, seven years, but we paid $1.4 billion, and it's making over $120 million a year.

那是很久以前的事了，七年了，但我們付了 14 億美元，每年的收入超過 1.2 億美元。

So we're feeling really good about that business and its growth potential.

因此，我們對該業務及其成長潛力感到非常滿意。

So we just know we always have our shareholders' best interest in mind.

所以我們知道我們始終牢記股東的最大利益。

We think about it broadly, and we'll continue to do that.

我們會廣泛思考這個問題，並將繼續這樣做。

Greg Peters, Raymond James.

格雷格彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

I'd like to, for my first question, focus on slide 8, which is your retention slide.

對於第一個問題，我想專注於投影片 8，即保留投影片。

And in your comments, you mentioned changing of agent compensation.

在您的評論中，您提到了代理人薪酬的變化。

If I'm not mistaken, some time ago, you lowered agent compensation on renewals.

如果我沒記錯的話，不久前，你們降低了續約時的代理商報酬。

AND I'm wondering if that's having any spillover effect on retention?

我想知道這是否會對保留產生任何溢出效應？

And obviously, the new apps are doing strong, so your competitive position looks good.

顯然，新應用程式表現強勁，因此您的競爭地位看起來不錯。

Also, is part of Transformative Growth.

此外，也是轉型成長的一部分。

I think you've been streamlining some claims costs, some claims functions.

我認為你們已經簡化了一些索賠成本和一些索賠功能。

Curious if you're seeing any impact of that on retention?

好奇您是否發現這對保留率有何影響？

Thanks, Greg.

謝謝，格雷格。

This is Mario.

這是馬裡奧。

Let me take your questions in order.

讓我按順序回答你的問題。

First, on retention, when we isolate and look at -- we look at retention a whole bunch of different ways.

首先，關於留存率，當我們孤立並觀察時，我們會用一大堆不同的方式來看待留存率。

When we look at retention in the agency channel, it's actually up year over year.

當我們觀察代理通路的保留率時，它實際上逐年上升。

So what's happening and what you see on page 8 is predominantly a function of price increases, which I think have the biggest impact on retention.

因此，正在發生的事情以及您在第 8 頁上看到的內容主要是價格上漲的函數，我認為這對保留率影響最大。

The -- just from an agent compensation perspective, as you mentioned, we changed and it has been transforming the model for them to really align with what both we want to do strategically, but also the value that customers see from agents.

正如您所提到的，從代理商薪酬的角度來看，我們已經改變了，並且一直在改變他們的模式，以真正符合我們想要做的策略，以及客戶從代理商那裡看到的價值。

So we've incented agents to drive more new business, deepen relationships with customers, and we see that with all-time high levels of bundling.

因此，我們激勵代理商推動更多新業務，加深與客戶的關係，我們透過空前的高水準捆綁看到了這一點。

And agents were really pleased with the performance of our agency force and how productive they are, and they're going to be a key part of our growth plan going forward.

代理商對我們代理商隊伍的表現以及他們的生產力非常滿意，他們將成為我們未來成長計畫的關鍵部分。

But that's really not the driver of retention that you see on the page.

但這實際上並不是您在頁面上看到的保留驅動力。

In terms of the claims organization, that's an area where even though the -- when you look at the ratio, it's pretty flat.

就索賠組織而言，這是一個即使當你查看比率時，它也相當平坦的領域。

That's a function of just having a higher average premium.

這只是平均保費較高的函數。

We're investing in claims.

我們正在投資索賠。

We actually have been adding staff so that we can continue to build on our claims capabilities, pay what we owe, drive a higher level of customer satisfaction.

實際上，我們一直在增加員工，以便我們能夠繼續增強我們的索賠能力，支付我們所欠的費用，提高客戶滿意度。

And again, we look at those as growth levers every bit as much as profit and severity management levers.

再次，我們將這些視為成長槓桿，就像利潤和嚴重性管理槓桿一樣。

But nothing really from a claims standpoint, driving the retention numbers.

但從索賠的角度來看，並沒有真正推動保留數字。

And as I said, as a matter of fact, we're adding resources and dollars in claims to help both support the growth that we want to achieve going forward, but enhance customer satisfaction and effectively continue to manage severity loans.

正如我所說，事實上，我們正​​在增加索賠方面的資源和資金，以幫助支持我們未來想要實現的成長，同時提高客戶滿意度並繼續有效地管理嚴重性貸款。

I guess as my follow-up question, just looking at the homeowners business, it looks like it's really performing well at a 62.1% underlying combined ratio.

我想作為我的後續問題，只要看看房主業務，它看起來確實表現良好，基礎綜合比率為 62.1%。

I'm -- you're growing that business.

我——你正在發展這項業務。

I assume you're not growing just a stand-alone homeowners business with the policy in-force growth.

我認為您不會隨著保單的有效增長而發展獨立的房主業務。

It's part of a bundle, but maybe you can provide us some perspective on how you're able to grow that business considering all the rate you've thrown in that line of business?

這是捆綁包的一部分，但也許您可以向我們提供一些關於您如何發展該業務的觀點，考慮到您在該業務領域投入的所有費用？

I'll start and then Mario can jump in.

我先開始，然後馬裡奧就可以加入了。

So first, you're right, and Mario called that out, we're just really good at homeowners.

首先，你是對的，馬裡奧指出，我們真的很擅長房主。

And we've made a lot of money in it.

我們在其中賺了很多錢。

And because we've repositioned the business really over almost a 10-year period, everything from how do we underwrite to what's covered by the policy to how we price, to our specificity and sophistication and pricing and the way we settle claims.

因為我們在近 10 年的時間裡確實重新定位了業務，從我們如何承保到保單承保範圍，到我們如何定價，到我們的特殊性、複雜性和定價以及我們解決索賠的方式。

So we're doing quite well there.

所以我們在那裡做得很好。

You see we are growing.

你看我們正在成長。

Some of that is, as Mario talked about, our agents are really good at bundling.

正如馬裡奧所說，其中一些原因是我們的代理商非常擅長捆綁銷售。

And that leads to better lifetime value for us and cheaper prices for customers.

這將為我們帶來更好的終身價值，並為客戶帶來更便宜的價格。

So that's good on both sides.

所以這對雙方都有好處。

We do think that there is more growth potential there.

我們確實認為那裡有更大的成長潛力。

Some of that is many people, because of the industry numbers that Mario quoted, have now decided not to grow in homeowners.

其中一些人，由於馬裡奧引用的行業數據，現在已經決定不再增加房主數量。

And that gives us more opportunity, not just to the Allstate agents, but in particular, to the independent agents.

這給了我們更多的機會，不僅是好事達代理人，而且特別是獨立代理人。

And I think we should be able to crack the code on direct.

我認為我們應該能夠直接破解程式碼。

Nobody's really cracked the code on direct yet and selling homeowners, but I think there's great potential there.

目前還沒有人真正破解直接銷售房主的密碼，但我認為那裡有巨大的潛力。

So I think there's growth in homeowners across all three channels.

所以我認為所有三個管道的房主都在成長。

Obviously, Allstate agents are doing well.

顯然，Allstate 代理商做得很好。

The independent agent business, Mario might want to talk about what we're doing with Custom360.

獨立代理業務，Mario 可能想談談我們在 Custom360 所做的事情。

And then direct, I think we could be an industry leader.

然後直接，我認為我們可以成為行業領導者。

And my logic is people buy houses off the web.

我的邏輯是人們從網路上買房子。

If you're buying a house off the web, you should buy your homeowners insurance off the web.

如果您要從網路上購買房屋，則應該從網路上購買房屋保險。

So we'll have to sort that one out.

所以我們必須解決這個問題。

So we're feeling good about it.

所以我們對此感覺良好。

I would just -- the other thing I would say is not really yet in market, but coming soon is ASC, affordable, simple, connected homeowners.

我想說的另一件事還沒有真正進入市場，但即將推出的是 ASC，負擔得起的、簡單的、互聯的房主。

Mario has talked about affordable, simple, connected auto, which is in market in 25 states, Mario?

馬裡奧談到了價格實惠、簡單、連網的汽車，該汽車在 25 個州上市，馬裡奧？

Yes.

是的。

25 states now.

現在有25個州。

And ASC homeowners is even better.

ASC 房主的表現甚至更好。

And it's got some really nice features to it, sophistication, which will leave us behind in our classic product.

它有一些非常好的功能，複雜性，這將使我們落後於我們的經典產品。

And our classic product is far ahead of the industry.

我們的經典產品遙遙領先業界。

So we think it's another leap forward.

所以我們認為這是另一個飛躍。

You want to talk about like 360 or how you view homeowners maybe by state or something?

您想談論 360 之類的話題，或者您如何看待各州或其他地區的房主？

Yes.

是的。

So Greg, again, I'd just reiterate where Tom started.

格雷格，我再次重申湯姆的起點。

We're really good at homeowners.

我們真的很擅長當房主。

And we think there is a real opportunity for us to grow homeowners in part right now because of the disruption that exists in the market.

我們認為，現在我們確實有機會增加房主，部分原因是市場存在混亂。

There's just fewer competitors out there that are wanting to write new business, and we want to take advantage of that opportunity.

想要開拓新業務的競爭對手越來越少，我們希望能利用這個機會。

We feel good about where our pricing is.

我們對我們的定價感到滿意。

As you mentioned, average premiums have gone up pretty consistently at a double-digit clip over the last several years to keep pace with inflation.

正如您所提到的，在過去幾年中，平均保費一直以兩位數的速度上漲，以跟上通貨膨脹的步伐。

But when you look at our profit trends, and you pointed out our underlying combined ratio, which is currently in the low 60s.

但是，當您查看我們的利潤趨勢時，您會發現我們的基本綜合成本率目前處於 60 左右。

I think that's reflective of our ability to stay on top of loss trends and write new homeowners business at an attractive margin.

我認為這反映了我們有能力掌握虧損趨勢並以有吸引力的利潤編寫新房主業務。

We target low 90s, which generates really strong returns on capital.

我們的目標是 90 歲以下，這會產生非常高的資本回報。

We think we can do that and grow the business across all the distribution channels.

我們認為我們可以做到這一點並在所有分銷管道上發展業務。

And I'll just end with the opportunity with Custom360 in the independent agent channel because I think that becomes additive to Allstate agents and our ability to grow direct in the Allstate brand.

我最後會以獨立代理商頻道中的 Custom360 機會作為結束語，因為我認為這會增強 Allstate 代理商以及我們在 Allstate 品牌中直接發展的能力。

We're in, I believe, 24 states with Custom360 currently.

我相信目前我們在 24 個州擁有 Custom360。

That's a standard and preferred auto offering along with homeowners that leverages Allstate's data and mid-market capabilities to price and really design that product.

這是一種標準且受房主歡迎的汽車產品，利用好事達的數據和中端市場能力來定價並真正設計該產品。

So it's intended to be the same product that we go to market with in the Allstate brand.

因此，它的目標是與我們以好事達品牌推向市場的產品相同。

As you can imagine, in the independent agent space, we're getting really good traction on our ability to lead with homeowners, which enables us to not just write the homeowners, but also capture the auto opportunity from a package perspective.

正如您可以想像的那樣，在獨立代理領域，我們在與房主溝通的能力方面獲得了非常好的牽引力，這使我們不僅能夠寫房主，還能夠從整體角度捕捉汽車機會。

So we feel really good about the go-forward opportunity in the independent agent space, which I think from a National General perspective, becomes additive to the great success we've had in growing the nonstandard auto business and is really another way that we can leverage our homeowner capabilities broadly across all three horses.

因此，我們對獨立代理領域的前進機會感到非常滿意，我認為從全國通用的角度來看，這對我們在發展非標準汽車業務方面取得的巨大成功起到了補充作用，並且實際上是我們可以實現的另一種方式在所有三匹馬中廣泛利用我們的房主能力。

I'll use Tom's term to really grow that business and generate really attractive returns going forward.

我將用湯姆的術語來真正發展該業務並在未來產生真正有吸引力的回報。

And Greg, let me make sure we fully answer your question.

格雷格，讓我確保我們完全回答你的問題。

Price sensitivity.

價格敏感性。

You referenced the rate of increase.

您提到了成長率。

And it is high.

而且它很高。

It's higher than auto insurance, right, at this point, not necessarily over the last three years, but pretty high.

它比汽車保險要高，對吧，就目前而言，不一定是過去三年，但相當高。

But that's -- it's just less price sensitive than auto insurance is.

但事實是——它的價格敏感度不如汽車保險。

There's a whole bunch of reasons.

有一大堆原因。

Some of that people like their house a lot.

其中一些人非常喜歡他們的房子。

Second, people know their house is actually worth more.

其次，人們知道他們的房子實際上更有價值。

And so when we're charging more, they know their house is worth more, not so much on cars.

因此，當我們收取更多費用時，他們知道他們的房子更值錢，而不是汽車更有價值。

So we had raised auto insurance prices because the houses -- the cars became worth more.

所以我們提高了汽車保險價格，因為房子、汽車變得更有價值了。

But people didn't really think about it that way.

但人們並沒有真正這麼想。

They do think about their home value.

他們確實考慮了自己的房屋價值。

So we're comfortable with where we're at.

所以我們對自己所處的位置感到滿意。

Yaron Kinar, Jefferies.

亞倫·基納爾，傑弗里斯。

I actually have two on renewal ratios.

我實際上有兩個關於續訂比率的資訊。

First, maybe conceptually, just looking at the slide 8.

首先，也許從概念上講，只需看幻燈片 8。

As the company grows in nonstandard auto and in direct, two areas where I think -- and then correct me if I'm wrong, renewal rates as for the industry have tend to be a bit lower.

隨著公司在非標準汽車和直接汽車領域的發展，我認為——如果我錯了，請糾正我——該行業的更新率往往會更低。

Is it fair to think of a run rate renewal rate that would be a bit lower than the, call it, through cycle 87.5 or so that I see in the slide?

認為運行率更新率會比我在幻燈片中看到的周期 87.5 左右稍低一點是否公平？

Insightful question.

有洞察力的問題。

Mario, do you want to take that?

馬裡奧，你想接受這個嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The first, just to be clear, the numbers you see on the page are Allstate brand.

首先，需要明確的是，您在頁面上看到的數字是 Allstate 品牌。

So there's just not that much nonstandard auto.

所以沒有那麼多非標準車。

There's more direct, but at least currently, again, not a meaningful impact in the trends.

還有更直接的影響，但至少目前，對趨勢並沒有產生有意義的影響。

On a go-forward basis, I guess I'd broaden the statement a little bit, Yaron, and say, the more new business we write, that first renewal period or the first policy period tends to be lower than the book overall.

從長遠來看，我想我會稍微擴大一下聲明範圍，Yaron，並說，我們寫的新業務越多，第一個續約期或第一個保單期往往會低於本書的總體水平。

So the more new business volume we write, there will be some downward pressure on the overall retention rate.

所以我們寫的新業務量越多，整體留存率就會有一定的下行壓力。

Current volumes aren't meaningful enough to really drive a significant impact.

目前的數量還不足以真正產生重大影響。

But you're right from that perspective.

但從這個角度來看你是對的。

And then certainly, in the nonstandard auto space, we've seen it with National General as we broaden the risk appetite in the Allstate brand and do the opposite of what we're doing at homeowners, take advantage and leverage National General's nonstandard auto capabilities in the Allstate brand.

當然，在非標準汽車領域，我們在National General 身上看到了這一點，因為我們擴大了Allstate 品牌的風險偏好，並採取與我們在房主身上所做的相反的做法，利用和利用National General 的非標準汽車能力在好事達品牌。

That will have an impact on retention.

這將對保留率產生影響。

Again, magnitude, we'll have to call that out for you when we see it.

再次強調，當我們看到它時，我們必須為您指出這一點。

But certainly, that business tends to retain at lower levels because those customers just tend to shop more.

但可以肯定的是，該業務往往會保持在較低水平，因為這些顧客只是傾向於購物更多。

So those things will have an impact on retention going forward.

因此，這些事情將對未來的保留產生影響。

But I would say what you see in page 8, pretty much a muted impact on those items at this point.

但我想說的是你在第 8 頁看到的，此時對這些項目的影響幾乎是微弱的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just thinking about the renewal ratio from here on.

然後從現在開始考慮續訂率。

I think at times, you see a little bit of a breakdown of that inverse correlation between rate increases and the renewal ratio.

我認為有時，您會看到費率上漲和續訂比率之間的負相關性有些崩潰。

And we saw a little bit of that a bit earlier in this current cycle.

我們在當前週期的早些時候就看到了這一點。

Obviously, we're seeing that pick up now.

顯然，我們現在看到這種情況有所改善。

But I guess, bottom line, is there a bit of a lag currently between the rate increases and the renewal ratio, one that we -- I don't think was as pronounced in prior years?

但我想，底線是，目前升息率和續訂率之間是否存在一些滯後，我認為這種滯後在前幾年沒有那麼明顯？

Yes, Yaron, this is Mario again.

是的，亞龍，這又是馬裡奧。

There is almost certainly a lag.

幾乎可以肯定存在滯後。

When you think about implementing a rate increase in auto, it takes six months to -- for that to be implemented across the entirety of the book, and then you'll earn it over the six months after that.

當你考慮實施汽車加價時，需要六個月的時間才能在整本書中實施，然後你將在之後的六個月內獲得它。

So there is a lag in terms of the rate we've taken or the industry takes and the impact on retention, and you see that in our numbers.

因此，我們採取的費率或行業採取的費率以及對保留率的影響存在滯後，您可以在我們的數據中看到這一點。

One of the things, though, that I'd point out is -- and we've been clear on this, we believe we will need to take less rate given where profitability is.

不過，我要指出的一件事是——我們已經明確這一點，我們相信，考慮到獲利能力，我們將需要降低利率。

But again, this is a state-by-state, market-by-market business.

但同樣，這是一個逐州、逐市場的業務。

So when we need to take prices up to keep pace with loss trends, we're going to do that.

因此，當我們需要提高價格以跟上損失趨勢時，我們就會這樣做。

And what you saw in the third quarter, about 70% of the rate that we took was in three states.

正如你在第三季看到的，我們所採取的比率中大約 70% 是在三個州。

It was in New York, New Jersey and an increase we implemented in Texas.

這是在紐約、新澤西州進行的，我們在德克薩斯州實施了增加。

So we're going to continue to take rate where we need to.

因此，我們將繼續在需要的地方採取利率。

We just think there's going to be less of it.

我們只是認為這種情況會減少。

And again, we'll look to manage retention alongside that.

再次，我們將同時考慮管理保留率。

But I guess what I'm trying to get at here is I think the big rate increases that we saw in the beginning of the year were really first quarter weighted, California, New York, New Jersey.

但我想我在這裡想要表達的是，我認為我們在今年年初看到的大幅加息實際上是第一季加權的，加州、紐約州、新澤西州。

I would have thought that the full impact of the -- those rates taking effect in the first quarter would have been in the second quarter.

我以為第一季生效的這些利率的全部影響將在第二季產生。

And by the time we came out of the third quarter, call it, August, September, we'd see a little less of that pressure?

當我們第三季結束時，稱之為八月、九月，我們會看到這種壓力會減輕一些嗎？

Yes.

是的。

The California rate was in the first quarter.

加州的比率是第一季的數據。

New York and New Jersey were actually implemented in the third quarter.

紐約和新澤西州實際上是在第三季度實施的。

So -- and I believe it was over 18% in New York and 13.7% or 13.4% in New Jersey.

所以——我相信紐約的這一比例超過 18%，新澤西的這一比例為 13.7% 或 13.4%。

So again, there's some pretty meaningful rates that we've implemented currently, again, to get those markets back to where they need to be from a margin perspective, so we can open up to write new business.

因此，我們目前已經實施了一些非常有意義的利率，再次從利潤角度來看，讓這些市場回到所需的水平，這樣我們就可以開拓新業務。

So Yaron, I would just say that the lag is muted and it goes up and goes down, right?

所以，Yaron，我想說的是，延遲是靜音的，它會上升和下降，對嗎？

Like not everybody shops the minute they get the price.

就像不是每個人一拿到價格就去購物一樣。

It's late, they get the bill, they just pay the bill, then they decide after a couple of months, geez, I should really think about this.

已經很晚了，他們收到賬單，他們只需支付賬單，然後他們在幾個月後決定，天啊，我真的應該考慮一下這個。

So it's not a simple on renewal that happens.

所以這並不是一個簡單的更新事件。

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

鮑勃·黃，摩根士丹利。

My question also follows around that line of business.

我的問題也圍繞著該業務範圍。

So if we think about your combined ratio and growth, right?

那麼，如果我們考慮一下您的綜合比率和成長，對吧？

In auto, you typically target a mid-90 combined ratio.

在汽車中，您通常的目標是 90 左右的組合比率。

Understanding that pricing has a lagging effect and then retention and growth also does.

了解定價具有滯後效應，保留率和成長也具有滯後效應。

But if we just look at the combined ratio, is the current level good enough for you to really step on the gas for growth?

但如果我們只看綜合成本率，目前的水準是否足以讓您真正加速成長？

Or do you feel you probably need 1 or 2 point more on the auto combined ratio side before you're fully comfortable with fully ramping up that growth going forward?

或者，您是否覺得在汽車綜合比率方面可能需要再提高 1 或 2 個百分點，才能完全放心地全面加速未來的成長？

We think that the auto profit improvement plan has been successfully completed.

我們認為汽車利潤改善計畫已順利完成。

That's why we dialed up advertising by 60% from 2021.

這就是為什麼我們從 2021 年開始將廣告投入增加了 60%。

That's not just up, that's way up over last year.

這不僅是上升，而且比去年還上升了很多。

It's like we're not even in the state ZIP code.

就好像我們甚至不在該州的郵政編碼中一樣。

So we spend the money and are investing the money because we think it will -- it's -- there are good returns.

因此，我們花錢並投資這些錢是因為我們認為這會帶來良好的回報。

And there's like things that happen in every state.

每個州都會發生類似的事情。

So sometimes you get a space, sometimes you back off.

所以有時你會得到一個空間，有時你會退縮。

Mario's team is constantly doing that.

馬裡奧的團隊一直在做這件事。

But when you just look in total, we're feeling good about it in total.

但當你從總體上看時，我們總體感覺很好。

If you look at a couple of states, there's still some work to do.

如果你看看幾個州，仍然有一些工作要做。

Okay.

好的。

That's super helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Second question is around the homeowner side.

第二個問題是關於房主方面的。

I understand that you said there are a few competitors now.

我知道你說現在有一些競爭對手。

The technology really makes it easier potentially for homeowner insurance to really grow from here.

這項技術確實使房屋保險更容易從這裡真正發展起來。

But isn't it fair to say that the states where there are opportunities, there are also states where people are trying to pull out?

但可以說，有機會的州，也有人們試圖撤離的州嗎？

So growth -- wouldn't that be geography related?

那麼成長——難道不是與地理有關嗎？

Can you maybe talk about what regions do you think it's more attractive on the homeowner front?

您能談談您認為哪些地區對房主更具吸引力嗎？

Or where do you think the opportunity lies in the growth on that space?

或者您認為該領域的成長機會在哪裡？

So let me go up and then turn it over to Mario.

那麼讓我上去然後把它交給馬裡奧。

First, we think homeowners is a good business.

首先，我們認為房主是一門好生意。

There is a challenge of increased severe weather and what it does to increase catastrophe losses, which you referenced, like why go right where there's a bunch of catastrophes.

惡劣天氣的增加以及它會增加災難損失是一個挑戰，您提到了這一點，例如為什麼要去有很多災難的地方。

I mean, if you can get the right price, it's fine, and then you just buy reinsurance for risk you don't want.

我的意思是，如果你能得到合適的價格，那就沒問題，然後你就可以為你不想要的風險購買再保險。

So -- and when you look at increased losses from weather-related events, there are threehree drivers: one, just more storms and more severe -- mostly more severe storms actually.

因此，當你看到與天氣相關的事件造成的損失增加時，你會發現有三個驅動因素：一是更多的風暴和更嚴重的風暴——實際上主要是更嚴重的風暴。

Two is houses are worth more.

二是房子更值錢。

And three, people are building houses in places that are risk to your other point.

第三，人們在對你的另一點構成風險的地方建造房屋。

Those latter two, you can know, like those are known knowns.

後兩者，你可以知道，就像那些眾所周知的那樣。

And you can factor those into your pricing, you can factor those into your growth opportunities.

您可以將這些因素納入您的定價中，您可以將這些因素納入您的成長機會中。

You can factor it into where you try to get new customers.

您可以將其納入您嘗試吸引新客戶的地方。

It's the third one.

這是第三個了。

But the third one tends to be -- is the smallest, according to a couple of external studies of the drive attribution and increased catastrophe losses.

但根據幾項關於驅動力歸因和災難損失增加的外部研究，第三個往往是最小的。

So the unknown known of what will happen to the severity of storms is the smallest driver of the increase in catastrophe losses.

因此，對風暴嚴重程度的未知是導致災難損失增加的最小因素。

So we feel good about it in total from a macro standpoint.

因此，從宏觀角度來看，我們整體感覺良好。

And then we execute it obviously at a -- not even -- much below a state level, you get east of Sunrise Highway, we get different standards than if you're west of Sunrise Highway on Long Island.

然後我們顯然是在——甚至不是——遠低於州水平的水平上執行它，你在日出高速公路以東，我們得到的標準與你在長島日出高速公路以西的標準不同。

So Mario, do you want to talk about where you see growth opportunities?

馬裡奧，您想談談您在哪些方面看到了成長機會嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Maybe I'll start with where we don't because I think it gets to the first part of your question.

也許我會從我們不這樣做的地方開始，因為我認為這涉及到你問題的第一部分。

And two states, in particular, Florida and California, obviously, really challenged homeowner markets that there's been a lot of pullback across the industry.

顯然，兩個州，特別是佛羅裡達州和加利福尼亞州，對房主市場構成了真正的挑戰，整個行業出現了很大的回調。

Those are not states that we're looking to get bigger in.

這些不是我們希望擴大規模的州。

So certainly, those would not be where we focus our growth efforts.

因此，當然，這些不會是我們成長努力的重點。

And then we'll continue to manage P&L and coastal exposure to be within our risk appetite.

然後我們將繼續管理損益和沿海風險敞口，使其處於我們的風險偏好範圍內。

But then once you get away from that, really, the rest of the country, particularly the middle part of the country is -- there's real opportunity for us to continue to grow homeowners.

但一旦你擺脫了這一點，實際上，這個國家的其他地區，特別是這個國家的中部地區——我們就有真正的機會繼續增加房主。

And that's not where you get the hurricanes or necessarily the wildfires.

這並不是颶風發生的地方，也不一定是野火發生的地方。

It's more of the severe weather, tornadoes, hail and so on.

更多的是惡劣天氣，龍捲風，冰雹等等。

And what we found is a lot of competitors have pulled back in those states given severe weather experience.

我們發現，由於經歷了惡劣的天氣，許多競爭對手已經在這些州撤退了。

I think that's where our capabilities from a product, a pricing, risk management perspective really enable us to take advantage of the disruption in the market and grow pretty broadly geographically and not have to grow where, I guess, where we can because nobody else wants it but actually grow where we think we can generate attractive returns.

我認為這就是我們在產品、定價、風險管理方面的能力真正使我們能夠利用市場的顛覆性並在廣泛的地理範圍內實現增長，而不必在我認為我們可以增長的地方增長，因為沒有人想要它實際上是在我們認為可以產生有吸引力的回報的地方成長。

And that, geographically, is the vast majority of the country.

從地理上看，這就是該國的絕大多數地區。

And again, that's why I think being good at homeowners and having an effective system and operating model to write it and write it profitably, it is a real competitive advantage for us.

再說一次，這就是為什麼我認為擅長房主並擁有有效的系統和營運模式來編寫它並獲利，這對我們來說是真正的競爭優勢。

And I think you see that in the growth trends really over the course of this year.

我認為您在今年的成長趨勢中確實看到了這一點。

And I said, we grew 2.5% from the last year, and we did grow in two giant markets that Mario talked about, which I'm going to guess are 15% to 20% of the homes in the United States.

我說，我們比去年成長了 2.5%，而且我們確實在馬裡奧談到的兩個巨大市場上實現了成長，我猜這兩個市場占美國家庭的 15% 到 20%。

So we did quite well there.

所以我們在那裡做得很好。

Hristian Getsov, Wells Fargo.

赫里斯蒂安‧格佐夫，富國銀行。

Mario, you said 75% to 80% of your auto premiums are currently open for new business.

Mario，您說過您的汽車保費中有 75% 到 80% 目前都開放給新業務。

So is it safe to assume that auto policies grew quarter over quarter in those states in the Q3?

那麼，可以安全地假設第三季這些州的汽車政策逐季成長嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I won't go into any state specific detail.

我不會討論任何州的具體細節。

But what I will say is we're open broadly.

但我要說的是，我們是廣泛開放的。

The 26% increase in new business that you saw was not concentrated in a handful of states.

您看到的新業務 26% 的成長並不集中在少數幾個州。

It was pretty broad as well.

它也相當廣泛。

But so were the retention decline that we have.

但我們的保留率下降也是如此。

So really, it's a combination of all those things working together.

所以實際上，這是所有這些因素共同作用的結合。

There's markets that grew in total.

有些市場整體上有所成長。

There's others that did not, but we're focused on having all of them turn positive at some point.

還有其他一些則沒有，但我們致力於讓所有這些在某個時候都變得積極。

Got you.

明白你了。

And then -- so with the auto retention being down 1 point sequentially and then PIFs were down 50 bps, this is auto.

然後，自動保留率連續下降 1 個百分點，然後 PIF 下降 50 個基點，這就是自動的。

Like is the majority of the declines in those metrics driven by California, New York, New Jersey, just given like the big rate increases we saw that were implemented -- I guess, approved in December, they were implemented throughout the year.

這些指標的下降大部分是由加利福尼亞州、紐約州、新澤西州推動的，就像我們看到的大幅加息一樣——我猜，在 12 月批准的，它們是全年實施的。

And then when would you expect -- I guess, excluding those three states, right, did PIF improve quarter over quarter?

然後你會期望什麼時候——我想，排除這三個州，對吧，PIF 會逐季度有所改善嗎？

Just trying to get a sense of how big of a drag those three states have.

只是想了解這三個州的阻力有多大。

Yes.

是的。

The quarter-over-quarter change in retention, I know, came up across a number of reports that came out.

據我所知，留存率的季度環比變化出現在許多發布的報告中。

Let me just comment on that because there's really two things going on.

讓我對此發表評論，因為確實發生​​了兩件事。

Some of the decline, probably about 40% of the decline is attributable to a handful of states.

部分下降，可能約 40% 的下降歸因於少數幾個州。

It's the California as well as New York and New Jersey that are having a meaningful impact quarter over quarter.

加州、紐約州和新澤西州每季都產生了重大影響。

And again, that's driven by some of the larger rate increases that we've implemented this year.

同樣，這是由我們今年實施的一些更大幅度的加息推動的。

There's another portion of it that I think reinforces why we made the disclosure change we did, which is about 60% of that sequential decline in retention is attributed to we're migrating some legacy Encompass books of business in some reasonably large states to National General.

我認為還有一部分強化了我們做出揭露變更的原因，保留率連續下降的大約 60% 歸因於我們正在將一些相當大的州的一些遺留 Encompass 業務賬簿遷移到 National General 。

One of those states is California.

這些州之一是加利福尼亞州。

And what that does is it drags down the Allstate brand renewal ratio.

這會拉低好事達的品牌更新率。

But as those policies -- as those customers opt to take a National General policy, it shows up the National General's number.

但隨著這些政策 - 當這些客戶選擇採取國家一般政策時，它會顯示國家一般的號碼。

So that's where we're looking at it by brand is -- I'm sorry, it was Esurance.

這就是我們按品牌來看的地方——對不起，是 Esurance。

I misspoke.

我說錯了。

I said Encompass.

我說的是包容。

They are legacy Esurance customers.

他們是 Esurance 的老客戶。

But that's why looking at it by brand, you just see as we operate the business in total with multiple brands, some of those brand metrics get distorted.

但這就是為什麼以品牌來看待它，你會發現當我們與多個品牌一起經營業務時，其中一些品牌指標會被扭曲。

So we just think it's more constructive to look at the total.

所以我們只是認為看總數更有建設性。

And I think look at the long-term number, we're down 2.7 points.

我認為從長期來看，我們下降了 2.7 個百分點。

We think it should be able to go up from there.

我們認為它應該能夠從那裡上升。

So quarter to quarter, we'll do full attribution.

因此，我們將逐季度進行完整歸因。

We're happy to talk about it, but it's the real drivers who just raised prices a lot.

我們很高興談論這個問題，但真正的司機才大幅提高了價格。

So a lot of people want to shop.

所以很多人都想去購物。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

I was wondering if you could just comment on your expectations for the timing of the retention ratio improvements?

我想知道您是否可以評論一下您對保留率改善時間的期望？

I know that you mentioned leveling off of rate increases should help retention.

我知道你提到穩定利率成長應該有助於保留。

So I'm wondering, are you seeing any evidence of that here in October?

所以我想知道，你在十月看到任何這方面的證據嗎？

Or is it still too early to tell?

還是現在說還太早？

First, obviously, sooner is better than later.

首先，顯然，越早越好。

So we're all on it.

所以我們都在努力。

The whole team is on it.

整個團隊都在努力。

There's a whole bunch of stuff we're doing that Mario mentioned to make a move.

馬裡奧提到我們正在做很多事情來採取行動。

And you can see benefits in individual states.

您可以看到各州的好處。

So we have some pretty large states that it's actually up.

所以我們有一些相當大的州，它實際上已經啟動了。

So we have confidence that we know how to manage our way through this.

因此，我們有信心知道如何渡過難關。

But we haven't really done a projection on that we're comfortable giving to everybody to say, here's the number you should count on.

但我們還沒有真正做出預測，我們可以放心地告訴每個人，這是你應該信賴的數字。

What we do know is, as Mario pointed out, is we expect to grow market share in Personal Property-Liability, and that's by doing Transformative Growth.

正如馬裡奧指出的那樣，我們所知道的是，我們希望透過轉型成長來增加個人財產負債的市場份額。

In the near term, we have to get retention up and continue to expand our new business.

短期內，我們必須提高保留率並繼續擴展我們的新業務。

But then longer term, all the work we're doing there is just even more sustainable.

但從長遠來看，我們在那裡所做的所有工作都更具可持續性。

So rolling out ASC Auto, ASC homeowners, all that work will drive long-term growth.

因此，推出 ASC Auto、ASC 房主，所有這些工作都將推動長期成長。

Got it.

知道了。

And it definitely feels like you guys are pretty confident around just -- or feel optimistic that the tempering rate increases should help improve that retention.

絕對感覺你們非常有信心——或者樂觀地認為調和率的增加應該有助於提高保留率。

I mean, from your standpoint, is it really just we're just having this timing impact from these three big states that need to just work their way through and like we're on the cusp here of a turn?

我的意思是，從你的角度來看，我們真的只是受到這三個大州的時間影響嗎？

Or I mean, I'm just trying to understand how you guys are thinking about it internally.

或者我的意思是，我只是想了解你們內部是如何思考的。

We're thinking about we need to do a better job for our customers.

我們正在考慮需要為客戶做得更好。

So we're charging them a lot more.

所以我們向他們收取更多費用。

They expect more.

他們期望更多。

They deserve more.

他們值得更多。

Some of that is because our cars and stuff and bodily injury claims are higher, but like we need to do a good job for them.

其中一些是因為我們的汽車和物品以及人身傷害索賠更高，但我們需要為他們做好工作。

So it's not just -- let's wait this out and not take a bunch of price increases and it will bounce back.

所以這不僅僅是——讓我們等待這一情況結束，不要採取一系列價格上漲，它就會反彈。

We're actively working on -- this year alone, we have a goal on double-digit millions of improving the customer experience, individual transactions.

我們正在積極努力——光是今年，我們的目標就是改善客戶體驗和個人交易數以百萬計。

We'll have another goal for next year that will be similar, but different.

明年我們將有另一個類似但不同的目標。

We're working on how do we get more precise on the price.

我們正在研究如何獲得更準確的價格。

So if you're an elderly person, you don't drive much, you should have Milewise.

所以如果你是老人，不常開車，你應該擁有Milewise。

You'll cut your price in half.

你會把價格減半。

So we're not -- it's not like we just think, oh, we're through this.

所以我們不是——我們不只是想，哦，我們已經度過了這一切。

I think this is just provide our -- use our operational excellence and capabilities to go back in now and fine-tune the fact that we had to raise prices a lot, so we can keep more customers.

我認為這只是提供我們——利用我們的卓越營運和能力，回到現在並微調我們必須大幅提高價格的事實，這樣我們就可以留住更多客戶。

Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

喬許‧尚克，美國銀行。

Two questions, one whimsical and one numbers.

兩個問題，一是異想天開，一是數字。

You talked about cracking the code on how to get people to buy homeowners insurance online.

您談到破解如何讓人們在線購買房屋保險的密碼。

How far away are we from being able to call Allstate and getting into an AI conversation with Dennis Haysbert or Dean Winters that knowledgeable about what you can do to save money by switching to Allstate and the way you can do for your policy?

我們距離能夠致電 Allstate 並與 Dennis Haysbert 或 Dean Winters 進行人工智慧對話還有多遠，他們了解透過切換到 Allstate 可以做什麼來省錢以及如何為您的保單做些什麼？

I love whimsical questions.

我喜歡異想天開的問題。

But I would say that one is probably not whimsical, really.

但我想說，這可能不是異想天開，真的。

We have -- it was called sales sidekick, which will help people do a better job of interacting with customers.

我們有—它被稱為銷售助手，它將幫助人們更好地與客戶互動。

It's going to dramatically change the way that the people interact with other people, which is why Mario was talking about how we have to reposition the Allstate agents.

它將極大地改變人們與其他人互動的方式，這就是馬裡奧談論我們如何重新定位好事達代理人的原因。

It gives us an opportunity to do that at lower cost.

它使我們有機會以更低的成本做到這一點。

So work they had to do before or they couldn't do or they had lower close rates because they didn't know some stuff, we'll increase their productivity and make them even better.

因此，他們以前必須做的工作，或者他們不能做的工作，或者因為他們不知道一些東西而導致完成率較低的工作，我們將提高他們的生產力，讓他們變得更好。

So we're feeling really good about where that might go.

所以我們對它的發展方向感覺非常好。

And I think if you look at our web stuff on ASC, that's quite sophisticated too.

我認為如果您查看 ASC 上我們的網路內容，您會發現這也相當複雜。

So Mario, what would you add?

那麼馬裡奧，你會添加什麼？

Yes.

是的。

The only other thing I'd add, Josh, that makes it not as whimsical as you might think is we have a lot of data on homeowners, both in terms of customers we've insured in the past and just on the homes across the country in general, which I think facilitates our ability to do what you described and be really efficient at intelligently being able to price and manage the homeowner risk.

喬什，我要補充的唯一一件事是，這不像你想像的那麼異想天開，我們有大量關於房主的數據，包括我們過去承保的客戶以及整個房屋的數據。有助於我們有能力做你所描述的事情，並真正有效地聰明地定價和管理房主風險。

So that's the other component, I think, that gets us and creates the ability to do what you suggested.

我認為，這就是另一個組成部分，它讓我們有能力按照您的建議去做。

And then the numbers, look, ad spend is way up as you look to grow the business.

然後，當你希望發展業務時，數字，看，廣告支出大幅增加。

I'm multiplying your number on that by premium and seeing it's up substantially.

我將你的數字乘以保費，發現它大幅上漲。

You also gave us a lot of data around new issued applications and we can make some guesses around gross new customers.

您還向我們提供了有關新發布的應用程式的大量數據，我們可以對新客戶總數做出一些猜測。

The ad spend is up significantly more than the new customer acquisition.

廣告支出的增幅明顯高於新客戶獲取的增幅。

Can you talk a little bit about what is sensible acquisition cost per customer, how we should think about it?

您能談談什麼是每個客戶的合理獲取成本，我們該如何考慮它？

And clearly, are you getting the tack on new business that you can make a return over a two- or three-year period on that investment?

顯然，您是否已經掌握了新業務的策略，可以在兩年或三年內從該投資中獲得回報？

A bunch of questions in this.

這裡面有一堆問題。

Let me end on this one.

讓我結束這一點。

First, advertising is a little bit like driving a car.

首先，廣告有點像駕駛汽車。

When you -- first when you hit the gas pedal, it doesn't take off right away.

當你——第一次踩下油門踏板時，它不會立即起飛。

It takes a while to get to 60.

到60級還需要一段時間。

So you've seen us do that.

所以你已經看到我們這樣做了。

We like the performance we see in terms of brand consideration.

我們喜歡我們在品牌考慮方面看到的表現。

We like the number of quotes that have gone up, and we like our close rate.

我們喜歡上漲的報價數量，也喜歡我們的成交率。

So -- but if you said, do we get back every dollar we spent economically as we're ramping it up?

那麼，如果你說，當我們加大經濟投入時，我們能拿回在經濟上花費的每一塊錢嗎？

No, you're investing some for the future.

不，你是在為未來投資一些。

That said, we have highly sophisticated metrics around it.

也就是說，我們有非常複雜的指標。

And it's both upper and lower funnel.

它是上漏斗和下漏斗。

If you're breaking into upper funnel, being brand imagery stuff, lower funnel being, I send you -- I got a specific lead and I buy that lead and I know you're shopping.

如果你闖入上層漏斗，成為品牌形象的東西，下層漏斗，我會寄給你——我有一個特定的線索，我買了那個線索，我知道你在購物。

So we have highly sophisticated math around that.

所以我們對此有高度複雜的數學。

It continues to be a sophistication gain.

它仍然是一種複雜性的提高。

We think we're pretty good in it.

我們認為我們在這方面做得很好。

Outside people tell us we're pretty good at it.

外界人士告訴我們，我們在這方面做得很好。

That said, you can always be better.

也就是說，你總是可以變得更好。

And when you're spending billions of dollars, you ought to be really good at it.

當你花費數十億美元時，你應該非常擅長。

So we're feeling good about the investment to date.

因此，我們對迄今為止的投資感覺良好。

We think we can continue to spend more and that will drive economic growth.

我們認為我們可以繼續增加支出，這將推動經濟成長。

But if it doesn't, we have the ability to just dial it down whenever we want.

但如果沒有，我們可以隨時將其調低。

It's not really that complicated.

其實沒有那麼複雜。

So thank you all for this as well -- our goal, of course, is to increase Personal Property-Liability market share, which we've talked a lot about today.

因此，也感謝大家——我們的目標當然是增加個人財產責任市場份額，我們今天已經討論了很多。

Also, broaden our protection offerings.

此外，也要擴大我們的保護範圍。

We're well capitalized.

我們資本充足。

We have good shareholder returns.

我們有良好的股東回報。

And we look forward to seeing you next quarter.

我們期待下個季度見到您。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program.

這確實結束了該程式。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

Good day.

再會。