Allstate Corp (ALL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Allstate's Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, please be aware this call is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Brent Vandermause, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加好事達第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，請注意此通話正在錄音。現在我想介紹一下今天節目的主持人，投資者關係主管布倫特·范德莫斯 (Brent Vandermause)。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning, and welcome to Allstate's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. After prepared remarks, we will have a question-and-answer session. Yesterday, following the close of market, we issued our news release and investor supplement and posted related material on our website at allstateinvestors.com. Our management team is here to provide perspective on these results and our strategy.

謝謝你，喬納森。早上好，歡迎參加 Allstate 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。準備好發言後，我們將進行問答環節。昨天，收盤後，我們發布了新聞稿和投資者補充資料，並在我們的網站 allstateinvestors.com 上發布了相關資料。我們的管理團隊在這裡提供對這些結果和我們的策略的看法。

As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will contain non-GAAP measures, for which there are reconciliations in the news release and investor supplement and forward-looking statements about Allstate's operations. Allstate's results may differ materially from these statements, so please refer to our 10-K for 2022 and other public documents for information on potential risks.

正如簡報第一張投影片中所指出的，我們的討論將包含非公認會計準則措施，在新聞稿和投資者補充以及有關好事達營運的前瞻性聲明中對此進行了調節。 Allstate 的結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，因此請參閱我們的 2022 年 10-K 和其他公開文件，以了解有關潛在風險的資訊。

And now I'll turn it over to Tom.

現在我將把它交給湯姆。

Good morning. We appreciate you taking the time and spending your effort to explore why Allstate is an attractive investment. So I'll begin with an overview of our strategy and results, and Mario and Jesse are going to go through the operating performance. Then we'll have time for your questions at the end.

早安.我們感謝您花時間和精力來探索為什麼好事達是一項有吸引力的投資。因此，我將首先概述我們的策略和結果，馬裡奧和傑西將介紹營運績效。最後我們將有時間回答您的問題。

Let's begin on Slide 2, which depicts Allstate's strategy to increase shareholder value. So we have 2 components of the strategy: increase personal property-liability market share and expand protection provided to customers, which are shown in the 2 ovals on the left. On the right-hand side, you can see the highlights for the fourth quarter. We generated net income of $1.5 billion. The strong results reflect our actions to improve auto insurance profitability and mild weather conditions, which was a welcome reprieve from the elevated level of weather-related losses in the first 3 quarters of the year. The proactive approach to increasing bond duration also contributed to strong results with higher income from the market-based portfolio.

讓我們從幻燈片 2 開始，它描述了 Allstate 提高股東價值的策略。因此，我們的策略有兩個組成部分：增加個人財產負債市場份額並擴大為客戶提供的保護，如左側的兩個橢圓所示。在右側，您可以看到第四節的亮點。我們創造了 15 億美元的淨利潤。強勁的業績反映了我們在改善車險盈利能力和溫和天氣條件方面採取的行動，這對今年前三個季度天氣相關損失的上升起到了緩解作用。積極主動地延長債券久期也帶來了強勁的業績，基於市場的投資組合帶來了更高的收入。

To further increase shareholder value this year, we remain focused on improving auto insurance profitability. There is more work to be done, but we're well on our way. Additional shareholder value will then be increased by increasing policies in force across all of our businesses. The transformative growth initiatives to drive property liability market share growth can be implemented in more states this year now as auto margins have been improved.

為了進一步增加股東價值，今年我們仍然專注於提高車險獲利能力。還有更多工作要做，但我們進展順利。然後，透過增加我們所有業務的現行政策，將增加額外的股東價值。隨著汽車利潤率的提高，今年可以在更多州實施推動財產責任市場份額成長的變革性成長措施。

We're also focusing on expanding protection offerings to Protection Services businesses, which are shown in the lower oval as Protection Plans, Identity Protection, Roadside And Arity, all have good growth prospects. As you know, we started the process to sell the Health and Benefits business and that process is proceeding on schedule.

我們也專注於擴大保護服務業務的保護產品，這些業務如下面的橢圓形所示，如保護計畫、身分保護、路邊和 Arity，都具有良好的成長前景。如您所知，我們開始了出售健康和福利業務的流程，並且該流程正在按計劃進行。

Let's review the financial results on Slide 3. Revenues of $14.8 billion in the fourth quarter increased by 8.7%. That reflects a 10.7% increase in the Property-Liability earned premium, and that was due to rate increases in 2022 and -- mostly in 2022 and then 2023 in both the auto and homeowners insurance.

讓我們回顧一下投影片 3 上的財務表現。第四季營收 148 億美元，成長 8.7%。這反映了財產責任保險保費增加了 10.7%，這是由於 2022 年以及汽車和房屋保險的費率上漲（主要是在 2022 年和 2023 年）。

Net investment income in the quarter was $604 million, an 8.4% increase, reflecting higher fixed income yields and duration extension, which is partially offset by lower performance-based income. The strong profitability in the quarter generated adjusted net income of $1.5 billion or $5.82 per diluted share. Annual revenues of $57 million were up $5.7 billion or 11.1% over the prior year. Strong fourth quarter earnings resulted in positive adjusted net income for the year.

本季淨投資收益為 6.04 億美元，成長 8.4%，反映出固定收益收益率上升和久期延長，但業績收益下降部分抵消了這一影響。本季強勁的獲利能力產生了 15 億美元的調整後淨利潤，即稀釋後每股收益 5.82 美元。年收入為 5,700 萬美元，比上年增加 57 億美元，即 11.1%。強勁的第四季獲利導致全年調整後淨利為正。

Slide 4 summarize the status of the 4-part auto insurance profit improvement plan. Strong execution resulted in 6.7 percent -- point improvement in the combined ratio in 2023. Starting with rates. Since 2022, the Allstate brand implemented a rate increase of 33.3%, which included 16.4% in 2023 and 6.9% in the fourth quarter driven by the recent approvals in California, New York and New Jersey.

投影片 4 總結了由 4 部分組成的車險利潤改善計畫的現況。強大的執行力使 2023 年綜合成本率提高了 6.7%。從費率開始。自2022年以來，好事達品牌的費率增長了33.3%，其中2023年增長了16.4%，在加州、紐約和新澤西州最近獲得批准的推動下，第四季度增長了6.9%。

National General implemented rate increases at 10% in 2022 and an additional 12.8% in 2023. Looking forward, we will pursue rate increases in 10 states to improve margins and in other states to keep pace with increases in loss costs.

國家一般政策將在2022 年將費率提高10%，並在2023 年再提高12.8%。展望未來，我們將在10 個州提高利率，以提高利潤率，並在其他州提高利率，以跟上損失成本的成長。

Expense reductions were initiated in 2019 as part of the transformative growth plan to become a low-cost provider of protection. Being early in this effort helped offset the rapid inflation and loss costs. The underwriting expense ratio decreased 1.1 points in 2023 compared to the prior year when you exclude the large decline in advertising that was directly linked to lower profitability. Looking forward, further cost reductions will improve efficiencies and our competitive price position.

作為轉型成長計畫的一部分，我們於 2019 年開始削減費用，以成為低成本的保護提供者。儘早採取此行動有助於抵消快速的通貨膨脹和損失成本。如果排除與獲利能力下降直接相關的廣告大幅下降，2023 年承保費用率比前一年下降 1.1 個百分點。展望未來，進一步降低成本將提高效率和我們的競爭性價格地位。

Given the significant improvement in prospective auto margins, we'll increase advertising investment this year. In addition, we implemented underwriting actions to restrict new business where we were not achieving target returns. We're removing some underwriting restrictions as rate adequacy is achieved.

鑑於預期汽車利潤率顯著提高，我們今年將增加廣告投資。此外，我們也實施了核保行動，以限制未實現目標回報的新業務。隨著費率充足，我們將取消一些承保限制。

Finally, enhancing claim practices in a high inflation and increasing litigious environment are required to deliver good customer value. This includes accelerating the settlement of injury claims and increasing in-person inspections. This program has positioned us to increase new business levels and begin to grow policies in force and states, where acceptable margins have been restored.

最後，需要在高通膨和訴訟不斷增加的環境中加強索賠實踐，以提供良好的客戶價值。這包括加快傷害索賠的解決和增加現場檢查。該計劃使我們能夠提高新的業務水平，並開始製定有效的政策和已恢復可接受利潤的州。

Now I'll turn it over to Mario to discuss Property-Liability.

現在我將把它交給馬裡奧來討論財產責任。

Thanks, Tom. Let's start on Slide 5. Property-Liability earned premium increased 10.7% in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by higher average premiums from rate increases, partially offset by a 2% decline in policies in force. Underwriting income of $1.3 billion in the quarter improved $2.4 billion compared to the prior year quarter due to increased premiums earned, improved underlying loss experience, lower catastrophe losses and operating efficiencies.

謝謝，湯姆。讓我們從幻燈片 5 開始。第四季度財產負債賺取保費增長了 10.7%，主要是由於利率上漲帶來的平均保費增加，部分被有效保單下降 2% 所抵消。由於保費增加、基本損失體驗改善、巨災損失降低和營運效率提高，本季承保收入為 13 億美元，較去年同期增加 24 億美元。

The chart on the right highlights the components of the 89.5 combined ratio in the quarter, which improved 19.6 points from the prior year quarter. The impact of catastrophe losses and prior year reserve reestimates on the combined ratio, as shown in light blue and gray, materially improved compared to the prior year. Catastrophe losses of $68 million were $711 million or 6.3 points lower than prior year, due to the mild weather conditions experienced in the quarter and favorable loss development from prior period events.

右圖突顯了本季綜合成本率為 89.5 的組成部分，比去年同期提高了 19.6 個點。巨災損失和上年準備金重新估計對綜合成本率的影響（如淺藍色和灰色所示）與前一年相比顯著改善。由於本季天氣條件溫和以及前期事件的有利損失發展，巨災損失為 6,800 萬美元，比去年同期減少 7.11 億美元，即 6.3 個百分點。

Prior year reserve reestimates, excluding catastrophes, were unfavorable and totaled $199 million, representing a 1.6 point adverse combined ratio impact in the quarter and a 0.9 point favorable impact compared to the prior year quarter. Approximately $148 million related to personal auto, driven in part by costs related to claims and litigation and adverse development in National General. The underlying combined ratio of 86.9 improved by 12.3 points compared to the prior year quarter due to higher average premium and the favorable influence of milder weather conditions on accident frequency.

上一年度的準備金重新估計（不包括災難）為不利因素，總計 1.99 億美元，對本季綜合成本率產生 1.6 個百分點的不利影響，與去年同期相比產生 0.9 個百分點的有利影響。大約 1.48 億美元與個人汽車相關，部分原因是索賠和訴訟相關成本以及 National General 的不利發展。由於平均保費增加以及溫和天氣條件對事故頻率的有利影響，基本綜合成本率為 86.9，較上年同期提高 12.3 個百分點。

Despite the favorable results in the quarter, the full year combined ratio of 104.5 was significantly impacted by elevated catastrophe losses, primarily from events in the first 3 quarters, resulting in a catastrophe loss ratio that was 4 points above the 10-year average from 2013 to 2022.

儘管本季業績良好，但104.5 的全年綜合成本率受到巨災損失上升的顯著影響，巨災損失主要來自前3 季的事件，導致巨災損失率比2013 年10 年平均高出4個百分點到 2022 年。

Now let's move to Slide 6 to review Allstate's auto insurance profit trends. The fourth quarter recorded auto insurance combined ratio of 98.9, improved by 13.7 points compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting higher earned premium, lower underlying losses, lower adverse prior year reserve reestimates and expense efficiencies.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 6 回顧 Allstate 的車險利潤趨勢。第四季車險綜合成本率為 98.9，較上年同期提高 13.7 個百分點，反映出已賺保費較高、基本損失較低、上年不利準備金重新估計較低以及費用效率較低。

The chart shows the underlying combined ratios from 2022 and 2023, with quarterly reported figures adjusted to reflect the estimated average severity level as of year-end for each year. As you can see, the underlying combined ratio decreased each quarter in 2023, reflecting the benefits of the profit improvement plan Tom discussed earlier.

這張圖表顯示了 2022 年和 2023 年的基本綜合比率，並對季度報告數據進行了調整，以反映截至每年年底的估計平均嚴重程度。正如您所看到的，基礎綜合成本率在 2023 年每季都有所下降，反映了湯姆之前討論的利潤改善計劃的好處。

As a reminder, we continually reassess claim severity expectations as the year progresses. If the current year expected severity increases or decreases, the year-to-date impact of that change is recorded in the current quarter, despite a portion of that impact being driven by reassessment of the prior quarters.

提醒一下，隨著時間的推移，我們不斷重新評估索賠嚴重程度預期。如果本年度預期嚴重程度增加或減少，則該變化的年初至今影響將記錄在本季度中，儘管該影響的一部分是由前幾季度的重新評估所驅動的。

In 2023, the full year estimate of claims severity decreased in the fourth quarter so there was a benefit from prior quarters included in reported results in the fourth quarter. When you adjust for this, the reported underlying combined ratio of 96.4 as shown in the table, would be 98.2 as shown in the bar on the graph. The 3 preceding quarters all benefit from the adjustment, including Q3, which improved from 10.5 in the presentation shown last quarter to 99.9, reflecting the latest severity estimate.

2023 年，全年索賠嚴重程度估計在第四季度有所下降，因此第四季度的報告結果中包含了前幾季的收益。當您對此進行調整時，報告的基礎綜合比率為 96.4（如表中所示），將變為 98.2（如圖表中的長條圖所示）。前 3 個季度均受益於此調整，包括第三季度，該季度從上季度演示中的 10.5 提高到 99.9，反映了最新的嚴重程度估計。

While loss cost trends remained historically elevated, the rate of increase moderated in the second half of the year, mainly in physical damage coverages. Allstate brand weighted average major covered severity expectations improved from 11% as of the end of the second quarter to 9% in the third quarter and now the 8% to 9% at the end of the year. As a reminder, this trend reflects our current best estimate for the year-over-year increase in average severity.

儘管損失成本趨勢仍處於歷史高位，但下半年增幅放緩，主要是在實體損失險方面。 Allstate 品牌加權平均主要承保嚴重程度預期從第二季末的 11% 提高到第三季的 9%，現在從 8% 提高到年底的 9%。提醒一下，這一趨勢反映了我們目前對平均嚴重程度同比增長的最佳估計。

Slide 7 shows the impact of our profit improvement actions across the country. As shown on the left, Allstate brand rate increases have exceeded 33% over the last 8 quarters, including larger increases in California, New York, New Jersey and Texas, reflective of the elevated loss trends in these states. These 4 states comprised 36% of Allstate brand auto total written premiums in the U.S. during 2023.

投影片 7 顯示了我們在全國範圍內採取的利潤改善行動的影響。如左圖所示，過去 8 個季度，Allstate 品牌費率增幅超過 33%，其中加州、紐約州、新澤西州和德州增幅較大，反映出這些州的損失率上升趨勢。 2023 年，這 4 個州占美國 Allstate 品牌汽車保費總額的 36%。

As you know, increases were approved in California, New York and New Jersey in December, so we have yet to see this in our premiums. The chart on the right shows states with an underlying combined ratio of below 100, shown in the light and dark blue bars, were 65% of the total in 2023, more than doubling from the percentage at year-end 2022. Excluding California, New York and New Jersey, the Allstate brand auto insurance underlying combined ratio was 95.9 in 2023.

如您所知，加利福尼亞州、紐約州和新澤西州於 12 月批准了漲價，因此我們尚未在保費中看到這一點。右圖顯示，基礎綜合成本率低於 100 的州（以淺藍色和深藍色長條顯示）在 2023 年佔總數的 65%，比 2022 年底的百分比增加了一倍多。不包括加州、新州約克和新澤西州，2023 年Allstate 品牌車險基礎綜合成本率為95.9。

The Slide 8 shows improving profitability had a negative impact on policies in force during 2023. On the left, you can see that total protection auto policies in force decreased by 2.9% compared to prior year as the Allstate brand decline of 6.2% more than offset a 13.3% increase at National General. Allstate brand auto policies in force decreased due to reduced new business volumes and lower retention. National General growth of 581,000 policies in force was mostly driven by nonstandard auto insurance and, to a lesser extent, the rollout of new middle market standard and preferred auto insurance product launches for the Custom 360 product.

幻燈片8 顯示，盈利能力的提高對2023 年生效的保單產生了負面影響。在左側，您可以看到，生效的汽車保障保單總額與上一年相比下降了2.9%，而好事達品牌下降6.2% 的幅度超過了抵消的影響全國通用增長了 13.3%。由於新業務量減少和保留率下降，有效的好事達品牌汽車保單有所減少。全國有效保單成長 581,000 份，主要是由非標準車險推動的，其次是新中型市場標準的推出和 Custom 360 產品的首選車險產品的推出。

The chart on the right shows total personal auto new issued applications for 2023 decreased 6% compared to prior year and the accompanying drivers. Targeted profitability actions within the Allstate brand resulted in a decline in new auto and issued applications of 20% compared to the prior year. The first 2 red bars reflect the impact of lower new business volume in California, New York and New Jersey as well as the direct channel decline in the remainder of the country, which was most directly impacted by the reduction in marketing investment last year.

右圖顯示 2023 年新發出的個人汽車申請總數與前一年相比下降了 6% 以及隨行駕駛。 Allstate 品牌內有針對性的獲利行動導致新車數量和發布的申請數量與前一年相比下降了 20%。前兩個紅色條反映了加州、紐約州和新澤西州新業務量下降的影響以及該國其他地區的直接管道下降的影響，其中最直接的影響是去年行銷投資的減少。

Outside of the 3 states where profit actions significantly reduced new business, Allstate exclusive agents increased production by 6% driven by higher productivity, showing the response of Allstate agents to the changes we've made to incent growth and the opportunity to continue to grow with our agency owners as part of transformative growth.

除了利潤行動顯著減少新業務的3 個州之外，Allstate 獨家代理商在生產率提高的推動下將產量提高了6%，這表明Allstate 代理商對我們為激勵增長所做的改變以及繼續增長的機會做出了反應我們的代理商所有者是變革性成長的一部分。

The acquisition of National General strategically positioned Allstate to grow in the independent agent channel with new business applications, increasing 12% in 2023. National General continues to grow nonstandard auto and generate higher volume from the Custom 360 product launches.

收購 National General 策略性地使 Allstate 能夠透過新業務應用在獨立代理管道中實現成長，到 2023 年增長 12%。National General 繼續發展非標準汽車，並透過 Custom 360 產品發布產生更高的銷售。

Slide 9 covers homeowners insurance results, which generated significant profits for the quarter, while full year results were impacted by elevated catastrophe losses in the first 3 quarters of the year. On the left, you can see net written premium increased 13.3% from the prior year quarter, primarily driven by higher average gross written premium per policy in both the National General and Allstate brands and a 1.1% increase in policies in force.

第 9 張投影片涵蓋了房屋保險業績，該業績在本季度產生了可觀的利潤，而全年業績則受到今年前 3 季巨災損失增加的影響。在左側，您可以看到淨承保保費比去年同期增長了 13.3%，這主要是由於 National General 和 Allstate 品牌每份保單的平均毛保費增加以及有效保單增加 1.1% 所推動。

National General net written premium grew 19.6% compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to policy in force growth driven by the Custom 360 offering and higher average premiums from implemented rate increases. Allstate brand net written premiums increased 12.5%, driven by average gross written premium per policy increases of 12.2% compared to the prior year quarter and a small increase in policies in force. Allstate agents continue to bundle auto and homeowners insurance at historically high levels.

與去年同期相比，全國普通保險淨承保保費增長了 19.6%，這主要是由於 Custom 360 產品推動的有效保單增長以及實施費率上漲帶來的平均保費增加。好事達品牌的淨承保保費增長了 12.5%，原因是每份保單的平均總保費較上年同期增長 12.2%，且有效保單小幅增加。好事達代理商繼續以歷史高位捆綁汽車和房屋保險。

Catastrophe losses of $21 million in the fourth quarter were low by historical standards, reflecting milder weather conditions and favorable development from prior events, contributing to a 62 combined ratio and $1.2 billion of underwriting income for the quarter. Milder weather in the fourth quarter also favorably influenced the underlying combined ratio due to lower noncatastrophe claim frequency.

第四季的巨災損失為 2,100 萬美元，以歷史標準衡量較低，這反映出氣候條件較溫和以及先前事件的有利發展，導致該季度的綜合成本率為 62，承保收入為 12 億美元。由於非災難索賠頻率較低，第四季度較溫和的天氣也對基本綜合成本率產生了有利影響。

For the full year, higher catastrophe losses drove the combined ratio increased in 2023 compared to 2022. Full year catastrophe losses of $4.5 billion were higher than our historical experience and translated to a catastrophe loss ratio that was 17 points higher than prior year and roughly 14 points above the 10-year average from 2013 to 2022.

就全年而言，與2022 年相比，更高的巨災損失推動了2023 年的綜合成本率上升。全年巨災損失為45 億美元，高於我們的歷史經驗，巨災損失比率比上年高出17 個百分點，比前一年高出約14 個百分點。高於 2013 年至 2022 年 10 年平均。

As you can see from the chart on the right, the full year underlying combined ratio declined from 70.3 in 2022 to 67.3 in 2023, reflecting higher average premiums from rate increases, partially offset by higher claims severity due to materials and labor costs. With an industry-leading product, advanced pricing, underwriting and analytics, broad distribution capabilities and a comprehensive reinsurance program, we will continue to leverage homeowners as a growth opportunity and remain confident in our ability to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns in this line.

從右圖可以看出，全年基本綜合成本率從2022 年的70.3 下降到2023 年的67.3，反映出費率上漲帶來的平均保費增加，但部分被材料和勞動成本導致的索賠嚴重程度提高所抵消。憑藉行業領先的產品、先進的定價、承保和分析、廣泛的分銷能力和全面的再保險計劃，我們將繼續利用房主作為增長機會，並對我們在這一領域產生有吸引力的風險調整回報的能力保持信心。

Moving to Slide 10. Let's discuss how we're advancing transformative growth to provide customers low-cost protection through broad distribution. We remain focused on 4 key elements of this multiyear initiative, as you can see on this slide. We have improved our cost structure to enhance our competitive price position.

前往投影片 10。讓我們討論一下我們如何推動變革性成長，透過廣泛的分銷為客戶提供低成本保護。正如您在這張投影片中看到的那樣，我們仍然關注這項多年計畫的 4 個關鍵要素。我們改善了成本結構，以增強我們的競爭價格地位。

In the current environment, with most competitors taking large rate increases, it's difficult to pinpoint competitive position. That said, our relative competitive position likely deteriorated in 2023. But as many of our competitors continue to implement rate increases and our expenses decline, we believe our competitive position will improve, enhancing growth opportunities as part of transformative growth.

在當前環境下，大多數競爭對手都大幅加價，因此很難確定競爭地位。也就是說，我們的相對競爭地位可能會在2023 年惡化。但隨著我們的許多競爭對手繼續提高費率並且我們的費用下降，我們相信我們的競爭地位將會改善，從而增加成長機會，作為轉型成長的一部分。

Redesigned affordable, simple and connected products currently available for auto insurance in 7 states with plans for further expansion this year, both improved customer value and deliver a differentiated customer experience. National General independent agent growth prospects will be further enhanced by expanding Custom 360 products, which were live in 16 states as of year-end 2023 and expect to be in nearly every state by the end of 2024.

重新設計的經濟實惠、簡單且互聯的產品目前可在 7 個州用於汽車保險，併計劃今年進一步擴展，既提高了客戶價值，又提供了差異化的客戶體驗。透過擴大 Custom 360 產品，全國一般獨立代理商的成長前景將進一步增強，截至 2023 年底，該產品已在 16 個州上線，預計到 2024 年底將幾乎覆蓋每個州。

Expanding customer access will also support market share growth, and we have made good progress in all 3 channels. Increasing sophistication and customer acquisition continues to advance and will improve the effectiveness of increased advertising spend in 2024 as we look to grow in more states. A new technology ecosystem is also being deployed to improve the customer experience, speed to market and reduce costs for legacy technology platforms.

擴大客戶訪問範圍也將支持市場份額的成長，我們在所有 3 個管道中都取得了良好的進展。隨著我們希望在更多州實現成長，複雜程度的提高和客戶獲取將繼續推進，並將在 2024 年提高廣告支出增加的有效性。也部署了新技術生態系統，以改善客戶體驗、加快上市速度並降低傳統技術平台的成本。

Let me turn it over to Jesse now to talk about expense reductions and other operating results.

現在讓我把它交給傑西談談費用削減和其他經營成果。

All right. Thank you, Mario. Slide 11 delves deeper into how we're improving customer value through expense reductions. As shown in the chart on the left, the Property-Liability underwriting expense ratio decreased 2 points from 2022 to 2023 as we continue to focus on lowering costs to provide more value to customers and saw the benefits of higher earned premium growth relative to fixed costs.

好的。謝謝你，馬裡奧。投影片 11 深入探討了我們如何透過減少費用來提高客戶價值。如左圖所示，財產負債承保費用比率從2022 年到2023 年下降了2 個百分點，因為我們繼續專注於降低成本，為客戶提供更多價值，並看到了相對於固定成本更高的已賺取保費增長的好處。

The right half of the chart provides additional context on the drivers of the 1.3 point improvement in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year quarter. The first red bar shows the 2-tenth of a point impact from increased advertising spend, reflecting the slight increases driven by seasonal investment changes and growth investments in rate adequate states. The second green bar shows the 1.4 point decline in operating costs, which was mainly driven by lower employee-related costs and the impact of higher premiums relative to fixed costs in the quarter.

圖表右半部提供了第四季度與去年同期相比提高 1.3 個百分點的驅動因素的更多背景資訊。第一個紅色條顯示廣告支出增加帶來的十分之二點的影響，反映了季節性投資變化和利率充足州的成長投資推動的小幅增長。第二個綠色條顯示營運成本下降 1.4 個百分點，這主要是由於員工相關成本下降以及本季相對於固定成本的保費上漲的影響。

Shifting to the longer-term trend in the chart on the right, we remain committed to reducing the adjusted expense ratio as part of transformative growth. As a reminder, the adjusted expense ratio starts with our underwriting expense ratio, which I just covered and excludes restructuring, COVID-related expenses, amortization and impairment of purchased intangibles and advertising expense. It then adds our claims expense ratio, excluding costs associated with settling catastrophe claims. Those expenses are excluded because catastrophe-related costs tend to fluctuate.

轉向右圖的長期趨勢，我們仍然致力於降低調整後的費用率，作為變革性成長的一部分。提醒一下，調整後的費用比率從我們剛剛介紹過的承保費用比率開始，不包括重組、新冠病毒相關費用、購買無形資產的攤銷和減值以及廣告費用。然後加入我們的索賠費用率，不包括與解決巨災索賠相關的費用。這些費用被排除在外，因為與災難相關的成本往往會波動。

Through innovation, process improvement and strong execution, we've driven significant improvement in expenses for the fourth quarter and year-end 2023 adjusted expense ratio of 24.7%. This reflects decreases in both the underwriting expense and non-cat claims expense ratio compared to the prior year quarter.

透過創新、流程改善和強有力的執行，我們推動了第四季度費用的顯著改善，2023 年底調整後的費用比率為 24.7%。這反映了與去年同期相比，承保費用和非巨災索賠費用率均有所下降。

Now moving to Slide 12, I'll cover investment results. This quarter showed how our proactive approach to duration management benefits results. The chart on the left shows changes we made in the duration of the bond portfolio in comparison to bond market yields. From the fourth quarter of 2021 through the third quarter of 2022, lowering fixed income duration mitigated losses as rates rose.

現在轉到投影片 12，我將介紹投資結果。本季展現了我們積極主動的持續時間管理方法的成效。左圖顯示了我們對債券投資組合久期與債券市場收益率進行比較的變化。從 2021 年第四季到 2022 年第三季度，隨著利率上升，固定收益久期的降低減輕了損失。

Beginning in Q4 of 2022, we began to extend duration, which when combined with higher yields has increased market-based income. Our fixed income yield shown in the table below the chart remains below the current intermediate corporate bond yield, reflecting an additional opportunity to increase yields as we continue to reinvest portfolio cash flows into higher interest rates.

從 2022 年第四季開始，我們開始延長久期，與更高的收益率相結合，增加了基於市場的收入。下表所示的固定收益收益率仍低於目前的中間公司債收益率，反映出隨著我們繼續將投資組合現金流量再投資於更高的利率，增加收益率的額外機會。

The bar chart on the right shows the income and total return benefits of these decisions. As you can see in the table below the chart, the total return of our portfolio was 4.6% in the fourth quarter and 6.7% for the year. Portfolio returns in both periods reflect income earned as well as higher fixed income valuations due to the decline in market yields in the fourth quarter.

右側的長條圖顯示了這些決策的收入和總回報收益。正如您在下表中看到的那樣，我們的投資組合第四季的總回報率為 4.6%，全年為 6.7%。這兩個時期的投資組合回報都反映了所賺取的收入以及由於第四季度市場收益率下降而導致的固定收益估值上升。

Net investment income totaled $604 million in the quarter, which was $47 million above the fourth quarter of last year. Market-based income of $604 million shown in blue was $140 million above the prior year quarter, reflecting repositioning of the fixed income portfolio into longer duration and the benefit from higher yielding assets that sustainably increased income.

該季度淨投資收入總計 6.04 億美元，比去年第四季增加 4,700 萬美元。以藍色顯示的市場收入為 6.04 億美元，比去年同期高出 1.4 億美元，反映出固定收益投資組合重新定位為更長期限，以及收益持續增加的高收益資產帶來的好處。

Market-based income also benefited from higher fixed income balances. Performance-based income of $60 million shown in black, was $87 million below the prior year quarter due to lower valuation increases and fewer sales of underlying assets. As we've stated previously, the performance-based portfolio is expected to enhance long-term returns as demonstrated through our 5- and 10-year internal rates of return of 12%, and volatility in these assets from quarter-to-quarter is expected.

基於市場的收入也受益於較高的固定收益餘額。由於估值增幅較低和基礎資產銷售減少，基於業績的收入以黑色顯示為 6,000 萬美元，比去年同期低 8,700 萬美元。正如我們之前所說，基於業績的投資組合預計將提高長期回報，我們的 5 年和 10 年內部回報率為 12%，這些資產的季度波動性為預期的。

Slide 13 covers results for our Protection Services businesses. Revenue in these businesses increased 11.8% to $719 million in the fourth quarter compared to the prior year quarter. This result is mainly driven by growth in Allstate Protection Plans, which increased 19.6% compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting expanded product breadth and international growth.

投影片 13 介紹了我們的保護服務業務的結果。與去年同期相比，第四季這些業務的營收成長了 11.8%，達到 7.19 億美元。這一結果主要是由 Allstate 保障計劃的成長所推動的，該計劃與去年同期相比增長了 19.6%，反映出產品範圍的擴大和國際增長。

In the table on the right, you will see adjusted net income of $4 million in the fourth quarter decreased $34 million as compared to the prior year quarter. This decrease is attributable to the results of a state income tax examination and increased the effective of state tax rate that we apply, which increased deferred income taxes by $43 million in the quarter for future tax payments in Protection Services, largely related to dealer services. The impact of the tax change on the enterprise was a net benefit of $6 million. We do not anticipate that these tax adjustments will have a significant impact on our ongoing operations.

在右表中，您將看到第四季度調整後淨利潤為 400 萬美元，與去年同期相比減少了 3,400 萬美元。這一減少歸因於州所得稅檢查的結果，並提高了我們適用的州稅率的有效性，這使得本季度保護服務未來納稅的遞延所得稅增加了 4300 萬美元，主要與經銷商服務相關。稅收變化為企業帶來的淨收益為 600 萬美元。我們預計這些稅收調整不會對我們的持續營運產生重大影響。

Shifting now to Slide 14. Our Health and Benefits businesses continued to generate profitable growth. For the fourth quarter of 2023, revenue of $630 million increased by $50 million compared to the prior year quarter, driven by growth in individual health, group health as well as fees and other revenue. Adjusted net income of $60 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 increased $2 million compared to the prior year quarter as individual health revenue growth partially offset higher benefit ratios in group health.

現在轉到幻燈片 14。我們的健康和福利業務繼續實現盈利增長。 2023 年第四季度，在個人健康、團體健康以及費用和其他收入成長的推動下，營收為 6.3 億美元，比去年同期增加了 5,000 萬美元。 2023 年第四季調整後淨利潤為 6,000 萬美元，比去年同期增加 200 萬美元，因為個人健康收入的成長部分抵消了團體健康較高的福利比率。

As you know, late last year, we announced the decision to pursue the divestiture of our Health and Benefits business, following the successful integration of Allstate's Voluntary Benefits business in National General's group and individual health businesses. We continue to anticipate the transaction will be completed in 2024.

如您所知，去年年底，在好事達的自願福利業務成功整合到 National General 的團體和個人健康業務之後，我們宣布決定剝離我們的健康和福利業務。我們繼續預計該交易將於 2024 年完成。

We'll close on Slide 15 by reviewing Allstate's financial condition and capital position. Allstate's proactive capital management approach provides the financial flexibility, liquidity and capital resources necessary to navigate a challenging operating environment, while providing support for long-term value creation.

我們將在投影片 15 的最後回顧 Allstate 的財務狀況和資本狀況。好事達積極主動的資本管理方法提供了應對充滿挑戰的營運環境所需的財務靈活性、流動性和資本資源，同時為長期價值創造提供支持。

Fourth quarter results demonstrated the company's capital generation capabilities with statutory surplus and holding company assets of $18 billion, increasing by $1.6 billion compared to the prior quarter. Assets held at the holding company also increased to $3.4 billion. The increase to the prior quarter primarily reflects a return of capital from National General's statutory entities, partially offset by common shareholder dividends. Additionally, GAAP shareholders' equity of $17.8 billion increased $3.2 billion compared to the prior quarter, reflecting $1.5 billion of GAAP net income and the improved unrealized position on fixed income securities of $1.9 billion.

第四季業績顯示了公司的資本產生能力，法定盈餘和控股公司資產為180億美元，較上一季增加16億美元。控股公司持有的資產也增加至34億美元。較上一季的成長主要反映了 National General 法定實體的資本回報，部分被普通股股東股利所抵銷。此外，GAAP 股東權益為 178 億美元，較上一季增加 32 億美元，反映出 GAAP 淨利潤為 15 億美元，固定收益證券未實現部位改善為 19 億美元。

We continue to proactively manage capital, make progress on the comprehensive profit improvement plan and invest in transformative growth. We remain confident that these strategic actions will generate attractive shareholder returns.

我們持續積極管理資本，推動全面利潤改善計劃，投資轉型成長。我們仍然相信這些策略行動將為股東帶來有吸引力的回報。

With that as context, let's open it up for your questions.

以此為背景，讓我們打開它來回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的吉米·布拉爾（Jimmy Bhullar）。

So I had a couple of questions. First, can you talk about rate adequacy in California, New York, New Jersey? The new business that you're issuing there now, is that adequate to price for normal profitability? Or are you assuming that you're going to need another sort of stab at it in 2024 to get to normal profits?

所以我有幾個問題。首先，您能談談加州、紐約州、新澤西州的利率充足性嗎？你們現在在那裡發行的新業務，是否足以滿足正常獲利能力的定價？或者您認為 2024 年需要採取另一種方式才能獲得正常利潤？

Thank you, Jimmy. I'll let -- there's really 3 different stories. Mario will take you through those. And then we'll do a follow-up question. And I would just remind everybody, we'd like -- ask one question with a follow-up hopefully related to the first question. But -- so we can make sure we get to everybody's call. So Mario, you go for it.

謝謝你，吉米。我會讓──確實有3個不同的故事。馬裡奧將帶你經歷這些。然後我們會做一個後續問題。我想提醒大家，我們想提出一個問題，並希望後續問題與第一個問題有關。但是──這樣我們才能確保接到每個人的電話。所以馬裡奧，你就加油吧。

Yes. So Jimmy, the first thing I'd say is we talked a lot last quarter about the actions we needed to take in the 3 states, California, New York and New Jersey. I'd start with a view that says, look, our objective is to meet the protection needs of as many customers in as many states as possible. When that can happen, we think customers are served well, markets operate effectively, and we can operate our business to achieve the appropriate levels of returns.

是的。吉米，我要說的第一件事是，我們上個季度討論了很多我們需要在加州、紐約州和新澤西州這三個州採取的行動。我首先會說，我們的目標是滿足盡可能多的州的盡可能多的客戶的保護需求。當這種情況發生時，我們認為客戶得到了良好的服務，市場有效運作，我們可以經營我們的業務以獲得適當的回報水平。

We had rate pending in all 3 of those states, and I'll just spend a minute kind of giving you the story in each one of those because I think it's slightly different. In California, you remember, we filed a 35% rate. We got approval for 30%, but we got approval earlier than our expected effective date.

我們在這三個州的利率都處於待定狀態，我將花一分鐘時間向您介紹每個州的情況，因為我認為情況略有不同。您還記得，在加州，我們提交了 35% 的稅率。我們獲得了 30% 的批准，但我們獲得批准的時間早於預期生效日期。

So effectively, we filed our full rate need and got approval for our full grade need. As of yesterday, we're writing business in California, again, across all channels, and we feel comfortable writing business in California, given the rate level that we're operating at.

因此，我們有效地提交了全額等級需求並獲得了全額等級需求的批准。截至昨天，我們再次透過所有管道在加州開展業務，考慮到我們的營運費率水平，我們對在加州開展業務感到放心。

Now of course, having said that, we've got to stay on top of loss trends going forward, and we'll do that, but we're comfortable with the rate level we've got in California have opened up that market. In New Jersey, it's kind of the opposite story. We filed for 29 points of rate. We got approval for just under 17%.

當然，話雖如此，我們必須掌握未來的損失趨勢，我們會做到這一點，但我們對加州的利率水平感到滿意，這已經打開了該市場。在新澤西州，情況則相反。我們申請了 29 個百分點的利率。我們獲得了略低於 17% 的批准。

And as a result of that, we're going to continue to take the more restrictive underwriting actions that we have been taking in New Jersey, which means we'll continue to get smaller in New Jersey, while we plan on filing additional rate. As a matter of fact, we have to rate pending with the New Jersey department. And depending on how those things shake out, that will inform future actions we take in New Jersey. But as of right now, we will continue to get smaller in New Jersey, just given the lack of rate adequacy.

因此，我們將繼續採取新澤西州採取的更嚴格的承保行動，這意味著我們將繼續縮小新澤西州的規模，同時我們計劃申請額外的費率。事實上，我們必須向新澤西州部門進行評級。根據這些事情的發展情況，這將為我們在新澤西州未來採取的行動提供資訊。但截至目前，鑑於利率缺乏充足性，我們將繼續縮小新澤西州的規模。

And then New York is kind of somewhere in between. We got approval for a 14.6% rate in December. We've implemented that, that helps, but we still need more rate. We're actively engaged with the department and intend to file our full rate need going forward and do that in a reasonably short order. And again, depending on how that plays out, that will inform the next set of actions we take in New York.

紐約則介於兩者之間。 12 月我們獲得了 14.6% 利率的批准。我們已經實施了這一點，這很有幫助，但我們仍然需要更高的速度。我們正在積極與該部門合作，並打算在相當短的時間內提交我們的全額費率需求。同樣，根據結果如何，這將為我們在紐約採取的下一步提供資訊。

Okay. And then just a follow-up, maybe slightly related and slightly unrelated. In those 3 states, if you're raising prices a lot, it's reasonable to assume that you would suffer in terms of discount or at least at a minimum, it wouldn't grow. But how is your PIF faring in the states, where you're not taking any outsized rate actions versus what some of your peers are taking? And just trying to assess whether you think it's reasonable to assume that your overall discount stabilizes at some point this year for the company as a whole and potentially grows this year later in the year or next year.

好的。然後只是一個後續行動，可能略有相關，也可能略有無關。在這三個州，如果你大幅提高價格，可以合理地假設你會受到折扣的影響，或至少不會成長。但是，您的 PIF 在美國的表現如何，與您的一些同行相比，您在這些州沒有採取任何過大的利率行動？只是試圖評估您是否認為假設您的整體折扣在今年某個時候對整個公司來說穩定下來並可能在今年晚些時候或明年增長是否合理。

Jimmy, this is Tom. I'll start and then Mario can give -- we can add on to that. I would say that the current competitive environment is still in flux. So we've raised our rates 30 points in California. State Farm gets another increase somewhere after that. So it's too early to tell what impact that will have on volume in 2024. We do -- our goal, though, is obviously to, one, make good money for our shareholders as first part. And as just said, the other part is need to grow. So we're -- we think we've got transformative growth in place, which is differentiated and a long-term growth plan as well as some of the short-term things you're talking about here.

吉米，這是湯姆。我先開始，然後馬裡奧可以給予——我們可以對此進行補充。我想說，目前的競爭環境仍在不斷變化。因此，我們將加州的費率提高了 30 個百分點。此後，State Farm 又再次增加了產量。因此，現在判斷這將對 2024 年的銷售產生什麼影響還為時過早。我們確實這麼做了，但我們的目標顯然是，第一，為我們的股東賺大錢。正如剛才所說，另一部分是需要成長。因此，我們認為我們已經實現了變革性成長，這是差異化的長期成長計劃以及您在這裡談論的一些短期事情。

Mario, what would you add to that?

馬裡奧，你會加什麼？

Yes. I think specifically on retention, Jimmy. As Tom mentioned, in the 3 states we talked about, those markets are still in a bit of a state of flux. One state I'd point to, to kind of kind of tell the story about retention and how taking outsized rates and then kind of lapping that impacts retention is Texas. We took significant rates in Texas in 2022 and earlier in 2023. And we showed you last quarter, there was a pretty substantial hit to retention in Texas.

是的。我特別考慮的是保留率，吉米。正如湯姆所提到的，在我們討論的三個州，這些市場仍然處於不斷變化的狀態。我要指出的一個州是德克薩斯州，該州講述了關於保留率的故事，以及如何採取過高的費率，然後採取某種方式影響保留率。 2022 年和 2023 年初，我們在德克薩斯州採取了大幅利率。我們上個季度向您展示，德克薩斯州的留存率受到了相當大的打擊。

As we lap those rates, we've seen a nice bounce back, which contributed to the sequential improvement in the fourth quarter retention level in auto relative to Q3. So once the rate need stabilizes, that certainly has a positive impact on retention going forward. And hopefully, as we in more and more states are really just keeping on top of loss trend, we would expect the headwind that we faced in retention to diminish going forward.

當我們完成這些比率時，我們看到了良好的反彈，這有助於第四季度汽車保留水準相對於第三季的連續改善。因此，一旦利率需求穩定下來，這肯定會對未來的保留產生積極影響。希望隨著我們在越來越多的州真正保持在虧損趨勢之上，我們預計我們在保留方面面臨的阻力會減少。

And our next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德·詹姆斯的格雷戈里·彼得斯。

Okay. For my first question, I'd like to focus on transformative growth, and it's kind of counterintuitive, right, because you're talking about lowering expenses at the same time, growing your policy count. So when I think of like some of the headwinds going forward on expenses, I think of increased agent commission because profitability is going up, I see maybe the potential for increased advertising expense. So maybe you can help us pull together on how you see growth emerging at a lower expense base.

好的。對於我的第一個問題，我想專注於變革性成長，這有點違反直覺，對吧，因為你在談論降低費用的同時，增加你的保單數量。因此，當我想到未來費用方面的一些不利因素時，我會想到代理商佣金的增加，因為盈利能力正在上升，我看到廣告費用可能會增加。因此，也許您可以幫助我們共同探討如何以較低的費用基礎實現成長。

Greg, I'll start and then Mario can jump in. So I don't know that I think there is counterintuitive that as you grow, your expenses can't go down. And I would point out, if you look at National General, its growth has helped drive more scale and as broad as expenses done. So that's just a scale-related comment to it. As you look at the programs we have in place on transformative growth, it's really across the board everywhere we're at we have programs that are -- we've been working on for 3-plus years. And they're rolling out as we go, for example, to become -- we're cutting costs by becoming more digital.

格雷格，我先開始，然後馬裡奧可以加入。所以我不知道我認為隨著你的成長，你的開支不能下降是違反直覺的。我想指出的是，如果你看看國家綜合醫院，它的成長有助於推動更大的規模和更廣泛的支出。所以這只是一個與規模相關的評論。當你看到我們為變革性成長而製定的計劃時，你會發現，我們所做的一切都是全面的，我們已經開展了三年多的計劃。例如，它們正在隨著我們的發展而推出，我們正在透過變得更加數位化來削減成本。

By becoming more digital, we can move more jobs, either get rid of the jobs or move them offshore. That's a multiyear thing. You don't just take first notice of loss and change it in the 3 months. So the benefits of those programs, which we've been working and rolling those out the last 18 months really, still we'll get more of those benefits as we go forward in 2024, just based on the work we've already done.

透過變得更加數位化，我們可以轉移更多的工作崗位，要么擺脫這些工作崗位，要么將其轉移到海外。這是一個多年的事。您不會只是第一次注意到損失並在 3 個月內進行更改。因此，我們在過去 18 個月裡一直在努力並推出這些計劃的好處，但在 2024 年前進時，我們仍將獲得更多這些好處，僅基於我們已經完成的工作。

In terms of agent commission, Mario mentioned this, we've changed the agent commission structure such that it pays more for new business and less for renewals. And that was one of the core parts of transformative growth, was how do we distribute our products at a lower price and still give people the value of an agent. And people want an agent to buy this stuff. They don't necessarily want to pay as much for retention.

在代理商佣金方面，馬裡奧提到了這一點，我們改變了代理商佣金結構，使其為新業務支付更多費用，為續約支付更少費用。這是變革性成長的核心部分之一，就是我們如何以較低的價格分銷我們的產品，同時仍為人們提供代理商的價值。人們想要一個代理商來購買這些東西。他們不一定願意為保留而付出那麼多。

One of the underlying assumptions we validated with transformative growth, which quite honestly, a number of analysts and other people were not so sure, but you're going to keep agents ahead in the game. And the answer is yes. Look at the productivity numbers that Mario showed. Do they like having renewal compensation go down? No. Do our customers like having a better priced product? Yes. And so we choose to do what our customers want, and they work through that. So we have a series of things that go on.

我們透過變革性成長驗證了基本假設之一，老實說，許多分析師和其他人不太確定，但你會讓代理商在遊戲中保持領先地位。答案是肯定的。看看馬裡奧展示的生產力數字。他們喜歡降低續約補償嗎？不。我們的客戶喜歡擁有價格更優惠的產品嗎？是的。因此，我們選擇做客戶想要的事情，他們也能做到這一點。所以我們有一系列的事情正在發生。

Now we do spend money, but like we're doing our expenses to first, take care of our customers. Second, build long-term value. We're not running our expenses to make a particular P&L number in a quarter. We just don't do that. We cut advertising, as you pointed out, because there was no sense growing if you're losing money on the product.

現在我們確實花錢，但就像我們花錢一樣，首先是照顧我們的客戶。第二，建構長期價值。我們的開支並不是為了在一個季度內達到特定的損益數字。我們只是不這樣做。正如您所指出的，我們削減了廣告，因為如果您在產品上賠錢，成長就沒有意義。

It wasn't because we were trying to make some combined ratio target. It certainly helped that, but we're like, why go out and advertise if you're going to write it at a 105% combined ratio? So we think about it economically first and in terms of creating long-term value.

這並不是因為我們試圖制定一些綜合比率目標。這確實有幫助，但我們想，如果你打算以 105% 的綜合比率來寫它，為什麼還要出去做廣告呢？因此，我們首先從經濟角度考慮，並從創造長期價值的角度來考慮。

Mario, do you want to talk about how you're thinking about expenses and where you go this year?

馬裡奧，你想談談你對開支的看法以及今年的去向嗎？

Yes. So Greg, I think when you combine the pieces that Tom talked about, I think you can get comfortable that we can continue to improve our expense ratio and our cost structure to get more competitively priced and invest in marketing at the same time. So when I think about the broad areas where we're looking to get more efficient and where we've gotten more efficient over the last several years.

是的。所以格雷格，我認為當你結合湯姆談到的內容時，我想你會感到放心，我們可以繼續改善我們的費用比率和成本結構，以獲得更具競爭力的價格，同時投資於行銷。因此，當我想到我們希望提高效率的廣泛領域以及我們在過去幾年中已經提高效率的領域時。

First, distribution costs. So when you look at the progress we've made on creating a lower cost, but more productive Allstate Agency distribution system, we're really happy with the progress we've made there. And I talked a little bit earlier about the increases in overall production. But underneath that, the even more significant increases in average productivity as we have fewer agents producing more volume today than was the case a couple of years ago.

首先，分銷成本。因此，當您看到我們在創建成本更低、但效率更高的 Allstate Agency 分銷系統方面所取得的進展時，我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意。我之前談到了總體產量的增加。但在此之下，平均生產力的提高甚至更為顯著，因為我們現在的代理商數量比幾年前要少，但生產量卻更高。

And within our expense ratio, the distribution cost component of our expense ratio continued to come down while we've been able to do that. So I'm really optimistic that as we move forward and look to grow in more states that our Allstate Agency force is going to be a core part of that. And we'll continue to be able to do that, but do that at a lower distribution cost overall.

在我們的費用比率內，我們的費用比率中的分銷成本部分繼續下降，而我們已經能夠做到這一點。因此，我非常樂觀地認為，隨著我們前進並希望在更多州發展，我們的 Allstate Agency 部隊將成為其中的核心部分。我們將繼續能夠做到這一點，但整體分銷成本較低。

On the operating cost side through the combination of becoming more digital, outsourcing, offshoring, just improving processes, we've seen pretty significant reduction in operating costs going forward. And we're going to continue to hammer on that one.

在營運成本方面，透過更加數位化、外包、離岸外包以及改善流程的結合，我們已經看到未來營運成本的顯著降低。我們將繼續努力解決這個問題。

We've also seen similar improvements on the claims side. Although I will say we're going to continue to invest in claims as part of profit improvement plan to get more effective on a number of processes. And I think the combination of the efficiencies we'll get in those 3 areas will help fund the marketing investments that we want to make and will make as we look to accelerate growth.

我們在索賠方面也看到了類似的改進。儘管我會說，作為利潤改善計劃的一部分，我們將繼續投資索賠，以在許多流程上提高效率。我認為，我們在這三個領域所獲得的效率的結合將有助於為我們想要進行的行銷投資提供資金，並且在我們尋求加速成長時將會進行行銷投資。

But if we need to spend money to grow on advertising, and we like the profitability, we're going to spend more money on advertising.

但如果我們需要花錢在廣告上成長，並且我們喜歡獲利能力，那麼我們就會在廣告上花更多的錢。

That makes sense. Can you just help remind me how the transformative growth plan moves over and touches National General? Or is National General sort of in its own ecosystem in terms of how you're thinking about expenses?

這就說得通了。您能幫我提醒一下變革性成長計畫是如何轉移並觸及國家總局的嗎？或者就您如何考慮費用而言，National General 是否屬於自己的生態系統？

No. National General is a core part of transformative growth. The reason we acquired National General was to first and foremost, improve our competitive positioning in the independent agent channel, and we've done that. With the business, we got a very well-run nonstandard auto business that we've continued to grow and grow profitably over the last several years. We're in the, I'll say, early stages of rolling out what we call Custom 360, as I mentioned, that's the standard and preferred auto and homeowners offering. So we think there's significant opportunity in the independent agent space.

不會。National General 是變革性成長的核心部分。我們收購National General的原因首先是為了提高我們在獨立代理商通路的競爭地位，我們已經做到了。透過這項業務，我們獲得了營運良好的非標準汽車業務，該業務在過去幾年中持續成長並實現盈利成長。我想說的是，我們正處於推出所謂的 Custom 360 的早期階段，正如我所提到的，這是標準且首選的汽車和房主產品。因此，我們認為獨立代理領域存在著巨大的機會。

When you look at the size of the National General business when we bought it, compared to what it is now. Our total IA presence, say, at the beginning of 2021 was a little over $5 billion, which included National General plus the Allstate independent agent business as well as the Encompass business, it's over $9 billion currently. So we've had a lot of success in that channel.

當你看看我們購買時國家綜合業務的規模與現在的規模相比。比方說，2021 年初，我們的 IA 業務總額略高於 50 億美元，其中包括 National General 加上 Allstate 獨立代理業務以及 Encompass 業務，目前已超過 90 億美元。所以我們在這個管道上取得了巨大的成功。

And we think there's just a ton of opportunity both in nonstandard auto, but in standard preferred homeowners in the IA channel. And we expect to continue to capture that opportunity, and that's a core part of how we're going to grow in a core part of the transformative growth strategy.

我們認為，非標準汽車和 IA 通路中的標準首選房主都存在大量機會。我們希望繼續抓住這個機會，這是我們在變革性成長策略的核心部分中實現成長的核心部分。

Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。

I want to stay on the line of growth, if I can. So based on the expectation that Allstate will be better competitively positioned in '24, how quickly and aggressively can you pivot a growth? And is it more a matter of improving the retention rates, which I would think would be pretty quick? Or is it more about the ability to pivot to new business?

如果可以的話，我想保持在成長線上。因此，基於 Allstate 將在 24 年獲得更好的競爭地位的預期，您能多快、多積極地推動成長？更重要的是提高保留率，我認為這會很快嗎？或者更重要的是轉向新業務的能力？

Well, how quickly it will depend what happens in the marketplace. So I fully expect that Progressive and GEICO, they spend more money in advertising and seeking to grow this year based on where their profitability is. State Farm has also been aggressive in trying to grow, although they still have to improve their price position so that they're earning profit. But I expect it to continue to be a competitive environment.

那麼，它的速度將取決於市場上發生的情況。因此，我完全預計 Progressive 和 GEICO 將在廣告上投入更多資金，並根據其盈利能力尋求今年的成長。 State Farm 也一直在積極尋求成長，儘管他們仍然需要提高價格定位才能賺取利潤。但我預計這將繼續是一個充滿競爭的環境。

But you're right about the -- and then it will just be how effective are we versus them. We feel -- Mario showed you the numbers where 2/3 of the country were like all systems go. When you add in California, that's another big chunk. So we think we've got plenty of open field, so to speak, to run in and to compete with transformative growth.

但你的說法是對的——然後問題就在於我們對抗他們的效率如何。我們覺得——馬裡奧向您展示了全國 2/3 的數字，就像所有系統一樣。如果加上加州，那就又是一大塊了。因此，我們認為我們有足夠的開放空間，可以說，可以參與變革性成長並與之競爭。

We've validated a lot of the underlying assumptions, but we've yet to bring it to market in a consolidated way in particular states with all of our channels, that's on Mario's list to do this year. So we feel good about those opportunities. So we'll grow as fast as we can and still make sure we have a good combined ratio.

我們已經驗證了許多基本假設，但我們尚未在特定州透過我們的所有管道以統一的方式將其推向市場，這是馬裡奧今年要做的事情。所以我們對這些機會感覺很好。因此，我們將盡可能快地成長，並仍然確保我們擁有良好的綜合比率。

Mario, what would you add to that?

馬裡奧，你會加什麼？

Yes. No, I think that's a comprehensive answer, Tom. And I think the short answer, Yaron, is it's going to be pulled through retention and new business acquisition. And certainly, as we said earlier, as more states get into the right zone from a margin perspective, we would expect the amount of rate we need to take in those states to diminish. That's really, again, as Tom said earlier, is going to be a function of what the future loss trend looks like. But having to take less rate is a good thing from a retention perspective, and we'll continue to focus on that.

是的。不，我認為這是一個全面的答案，湯姆。 Yaron，我認為簡短的答案是，它將透過保留和新業務收購來拉動。當然，正如我們之前所說，隨著越來越多的州從邊際角度進入正確的區域，我們預計這些州需要採取的利率將會減少。正如湯姆之前所說，這確實是未來損失趨勢的函數。但從保留的角度來看，降低利率是一件好事，我們將繼續關注這一點。

And then in terms of new business, as we begin to invest in more states and do things like unwinding some of the restrictive underwriting actions we had to take to limit growth, invest in marketing and take full advantage of the broad distribution capabilities we've built across the Allstate exclusive agency system direct and independent agent.

然後就新業務而言，隨著我們開始在更多州進行投資，並採取一些措施，例如取消我們為限製成長而必須採取的一些限制性承保行動，投資於行銷並充分利用我們已經擁有的廣泛分銷能力。建立了跨Allstate獨家代理系統直接和獨立代理。

We think we can fully leverage all the things we've been building with a better competitive position to help drive growth. But timing will be dependent on state by state, market by market and influence in large part by the competitive marketplace we're going to be operating in.

我們認為我們可以充分利用我們一直在建立的所有東西，以更好的競爭地位來幫助推動成長。但時機將取決於各州、各個市場，並且在很大程度上取決於我們將要經營的競爭市場的影響。

And then maybe as my follow-up, tying the appetite to grow as much as you can profitably the question of capital. You talked in the past and then even on this call about the -- about maybe selling the Health and Benefits business. You talked about the stop loss that you were looking to maybe purchase last year. Do you need to take any of these actions or other strategic actions in order to satisfy the growth appetite? Or do you have all the capital you need to grow as much as you want today?

然後也許作為我的後續行動，將盡可能增長的慾望與資本問題聯繫起來。您過去曾談到，甚至在這次電話會議上也談到可能出售健康和福利業務。您談到了去年您可能希望購買的停損。您是否需要採取任何這些行動或其他策略行動來滿足成長需求？或者您擁有實現您今天想要的成長所需的全部資本？

No, we don't have to take any of those actions. We have plenty of capital and do -- we have plenty of capital today. When you look at our earnings power, we'll have plenty of capital to fund whatever growth we think we can achieve.

不，我們不必採取任何這些行動。我們擁有充足的資本，而且我們今天也擁有充足的資本。當你看到我們的獲利能力時，我們將有足夠的資本來資助我們認為可以實現的任何成長。

And our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的愛麗絲·格林斯潘。

My first question is on the holdco cash. It did go up in the quarter. Did you guys take a dividend out of AIC or another entity in the third quarter?

我的第一個問題是關於控股公司現金。該季度確實有所上漲。你們在第三季從 AIC 或其他實體中提取了股息嗎？

Elyse, this is Jesse. So as it relates to holdco cash, you could see that it went up from the prior quarter. And this is really in accordance with our normal practice of moving capital around to maximize flexibility. So what we did do is move some capital up from a statutory legal entity. It was not AIC, but we moved some money up from some statutory legal entities as well as a few dividends out of noninsurance companies into the holding company.

伊麗絲，這是傑西。因此，就控股公司現金而言，您可以看到它比上一季增加。這確實符合我們轉移資金以最大限度地提高靈活性的正常做法。所以我們所做的就是從法定法人實體轉移一些資本。它不是 AIC，但我們將一些法定法人實體的資金以及非保險公司的一些股息轉移到控股公司。

I know when we talked in prior quarters, we had a few insurance companies that had a fair amount of capital in them and didn't have risk because the risk was all reinsured into the Allstate Insurance company. So sort of in the normal course of creating flexibility, we looked at those entities and moved some of that surplus up to the holdco in the quarter.

我知道，當我們在前幾個季度交談時，我們有幾家保險公司擁有相當數量的資本，並且沒有風險，因為風險全部再保險到好事達保險公司。因此，在創造靈活性的正常過程中，我們研究了這些實體，並將部分盈餘轉移到本季的控股公司。

And then my second question is on policy growth, but on the Nat Gen side, right, you guys have been showing its growth slowed within the Allstate brand. You've been showing pretty strong growth within Nat Gen policies in force. Just hoping to get some color there as you kind of put way through bolts books, like what's been driving the growth within Nat Gen? And how should we think about that continuing from here?

然後我的第二個問題是關於政策成長，但在 Nat Gen 方面，對吧，你們一直在好事達品牌內顯示其成長放緩。在現行的國家發電政策下，你們已經表現出相當強勁的成長。只是希望在閱讀螺栓書籍時能獲得一些色彩，例如是什麼推動了 Nat Gen 的成長？我們該如何考慮從這裡繼續下去？

Yes. Elyse, it's Mario. So most of the growth that we've been experiencing in National General has been in the nonstandard auto space. And as you know, that's a part of the market that's had a lot of disruption competitively where a lot of carriers have really either pulled out or certainly slowed their growth.

是的。伊莉絲，是馬裡奧。因此，我們在 National General 經歷的大部分成長都發生在非標準汽車領域。如您所知，這是一個競爭激烈的市場部分，許多營運商要么退出，要么確實放緩了成長速度。

With National General, we've taken the same approach from a profit improvement perspective as we have in Allstate. We've taken almost 23 points of rate over the last 2 years in National General. The nonstandard auto book tends to turn over quickly so you can reprice the book on a continual basis. And so we've stayed in that market, we've generated meaningful growth in nonstandard auto, and we're comfortable with the margins that we're experiencing in that book of business and look to continue to grow that.

對於 National General，我們從利潤改善的角度採取了與 Allstate 相同的方法。過去 2 年，我們在 National General 中獲得了近 23 個百分點。非標準汽車書籍往往週轉速度很快，因此您可以不斷地重新定價。因此，我們一直留在這個市場，我們在非標準汽車領域實現了有意義的成長，我們對我們在該業務中所經歷的利潤感到滿意，並希望繼續成長。

On top of that, as I said earlier, we're rolling out the Custom 360, which is the going upmarket in the IA channel to write standard preferred auto and homeowners. Again, early stages there. The good news is that, that product is in 16 states. We're getting good traction. It accounts for -- in the fourth quarter, it was about 70% of our standard auto and preferred new business production in the IA channel. We'll expand that into additional states throughout the course of 2024 and into 2025.

除此之外，正如我之前所說，我們正在推出 Custom 360，這是 IA 頻道中的高端市場，用於編寫標準的首選汽車和房主。再說一遍，還是早期階段。好消息是，該產品已在 16 個州銷售。我們獲得了良好的牽引力。第四季度，它約占我們 IA 通路中標準汽車和首選新業務產量的 70%。我們將在 2024 年和 2025 年將其擴展到更多州。

So we think that will be an additive opportunity in the IA space. But we're comfortable with what we've been writing nonstandard auto in National General, and we think there's an additive opportunity as we look to really leverage Allstate's capabilities in the middle market to expand National General in that space in the IA channel.

因此，我們認為這將是 IA 領域的一個附加機會。但我們對在 National General 中編寫的非標準汽車感到滿意，並且我們認為，當我們希望真正利用 Allstate 在中間市場的能力來擴展 National General 在 IA 渠道的該領域時，存在額外的機會。

And our next question comes from the line of Bob Huang from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。

Just a quick question on the capital side. Obviously, your capital now seems to be very sufficient. Curious as to how you think about the path to resuming buybacks, especially given the material rebound in capital level so far?

只是關於資本的一個簡單問題。顯然，你現在的資金看起來是非常充足的。好奇您如何看待恢復回購的路徑，特別是考慮到迄今為止資本水準的實質反彈？

So this is Tom. Let me start with -- our capital has always been sufficient. So it just like to reiterate what the position we've had. As it relates to buybacks when we're looking at capital we generate, we start with, first, making sure we have enough capital to run the business and to grow the business. And we have had put aside more capital for growth given the dramatic increase in premiums and the risk. And we think with transformative growth, we will continue to have opportunities to deploy capital and high ROEs in that growth. So that's the first thing we do is like how do you drive shareholder value.

這就是湯姆。首先，我們的資金一直是充足的。所以它只是重申我們的立場。由於它與回購有關，因此當我們考慮我們產生的資本時，我們首先要確保我們有足夠的資本來經營業務和發展業務。鑑於保費和風險的急劇增加，我們已經預留了更多資本用於成長。我們認為，隨著變革性成長，我們將繼續有機會在這種成長中部署資本和高股本回報率。所以我們要做的第一件事就是如何提高股東價值。

And so I think looking forward, with those opportunities, we will have less capital than -- for share buybacks than we had historically. That said, we have a strong track record of buying shares back. I think -- I don't know, since I've been CEO, maybe it's $30 billion worth of shares we bought back. Like if we don't have a good use for the capital, then we will give it back to shareholders because there's no sense hold on to extra capital.

因此，我認為，展望未來，有了這些機會，我們用於股票回購的資本將比歷史上更少。也就是說，我們在回購股票方面有著良好的記錄。我想——我不知道，自從我擔任執行長以來，我們可能回購了價值 300 億美元的股票。就像如果我們沒有很好地利用資本，那麼我們會將其回饋給股東，因為保留額外資本是沒有意義的。

But between growth in the Property-Liability business, growth in some of our Protection Services business, they tend to be a little lighter in terms of capital needs. And then our investment portfolio, we derisked our investment portfolio last year because of what we didn't see as great market opportunities. And if we saw there was opportunities to put more risk into the investment portfolio, that would be another use of capital. So I think -- thing about capital is, we're always trying to manage and maximize shareholder value, and we'll do whatever format is best.

但在財產責任業務的成長和我們的一些保護服務業務的成長之間，它們在資本需求方面往往要輕一些。然後是我們的投資組合，去年我們降低了投資組合的風險，因為我們沒有看到巨大的市場機會。如果我們看到有機會將更多風險放入投資組合中，那將是資本的另一個用途。所以我認為，關於資本，我們一直在努力管理和最大化股東價值，我們會採取任何最好的形式。

That's very helpful. And apologies for misstating the capital side of thing. So my second question really is on the expense. So one thing we hear typically from litigation lawyers is that well, social inflation is an issue because the insurance companies carriers tend to underfund claims department and often have inexperienced claim staffing.

這非常有幫助。並對錯誤描述事情的資本方面表示歉意。所以我的第二個問題其實是關於費用的。因此，我們通常從訴訟律師那裡聽到的一件事是，社會通貨膨脹是一個問題，因為保險公司的承運人往往為索賠部門提供資金不足，而且索賠人員往往缺乏經驗。

As you think about expense save going forward and as we think about repivoting back to growth, can you maybe help us think about what areas within expenses are you cutting? And what are the areas where it is very critical and then the things that you're not going to cut on the expense side, is it possible to provide some colors?

當您考慮未來節省開支以及我們考慮恢復成長時，您能否幫助我們考慮您要削減哪些開支領域？哪些領域非常關鍵，哪些方面是你不會在費用方面削減的，是否可以提供一些顏色？

Let me maybe address the litigation piece. Mario can talk about expenses in claims. And then we -- if you want, we can go above that in claims, I mean sure if you're just focused on claims. I'm not shocked that the lawyers would say that the only reason they exist is because we don't have good people settling claims. They're just not true. We -- while the injury claims are where our customers get into an accident and hurt somebody else, we take those very seriously. We try to resolve those quickly. We try to make sure people get a fair amount.

也許讓我談談訴訟部分。馬裡奧可以談論索賠中的費用。然後我們 - 如果你願意，我們可以在索賠方面超越這一點，我的意思是，如果你只專注於索賠的話。對於律師們說他們存在的唯一原因是因為我們沒有優秀的人來解決索賠，我並不感到驚訝。他們只是不真實。我們—雖然傷害索賠是指我們的客戶發生事故並傷害他人的情況，但我們非常認真地對待這些情況。我們試圖快速解決這些問題。我們盡力確保人們得到公平的金額。

So I don't think I've seen any systemic changes either in the way we do it or the way the industry does it. I will say there have been a couple of things that have led to increased number of suits and litigation. First is they're just more severe accidents. So during the pandemic, people start driving faster, they keep driving faster. And so when you look at the severity of the accidents, severity is up. And when severity is up, people tend to get hurt more. And when people get hurt more, they tend to have more damages and that leads to a greater increase in the use of lawyers to help them resolve their claims. So that part seems completely natural to me.

因此，我認為我沒有看到我們的做法或行業的做法發生任何系統性變化。我想說的是，有幾件事導致了訴訟和訴訟數量的增加。首先，它們只是更嚴重的事故。因此，在大流行期間，人們開始開得更快，而且他們繼續開得更快。因此，當您查看事故的嚴重程度時，您會發現嚴重程度上升。當嚴重程度增加時，人們往往會受到更多傷害。當人們受到更多傷害時，他們往往會受到更多損害，這導致更多地使用律師來幫助他們解決索賠。所以這部分對我來說似乎是完全自然的。

There's obviously been a big change in the way those litigation firms go to market, I don't know, obviously. But if you look at their advertising spend today, it's over $1 billion a year. So they're out looking for customers. Some of those are people who need their help because they've been in severe accidents, and they're more of them. Some of them are the people that maybe don't need as much help.

我不知道，這些訴訟公司進入市場的方式顯然已經發生了很大的變化。但如果你看看他們今天的廣告支出，你會發現每年超過 10 億美元。所以他們出去尋找客戶。其中有些人因為遭遇嚴重事故而需要他們的幫助，而且這樣的人數更多。其中一些可能不需要那麼多幫助。

They've also gotten much more sophisticated in the use of data and analytics and trying to hunt down claimants and possible clients. Some of that would be good. Some of that, we're not so sure they're actually doing what they're supposed to be doing.

他們在使用數據和分析以及試圖尋找索賠人和可能的客戶方面也變得更加複雜。其中一些會很好。其中一些，我們不太確定他們是否真的在做他們應該做的事情。

So I think it's just a process like we want to make sure people get the right amount. We don't want them to get too little, and we don't want them to get too much. We work to do that. You saw -- we mentioned in the release for sure that we've also been settling claims faster. I guess we mentioned it in the presentation as well.

所以我認為這只是一個過程，我們希望確保人們得到正確的金額。我們不希望他們得到太少，也不希望他們得到太多。我們努力做到這一點。你看到了——我們在新聞稿中確實提到，我們也在更快地解決索賠。我想我們在演示中也提到了這一點。

So to counter that, what we have found is that if we can put more resources on a claim, settle it faster than people are less likely to feel and need to go get a lawyer, they're happy, we're happy, and it's cheaper for everybody because nobody has to pay the 30% to attorneys.

因此，為了反駁這一點，我們發現，如果我們能夠在索賠上投入更多資源，以比人們不太可能感覺和需要去找律師的速度更快地解決問題，他們會很高興，我們也會很高興，並且對每個人來說都更便宜，因為沒有人需要向律師支付 30% 的費用。

Mario, do you want to talk more about claims, maybe bodily injury, other claim expenses?

馬裡奧，你想多談談索賠，也許是身體傷害，其他索賠費用嗎？

Yes. I guess where I'll start is as we talked over the last really couple of years about our profit improvement plan, it's multidimensional. And one dimension that we've continued to focus on is just improving claim operational execution. The fact is as much as continuing to reduce our cost structure improves our competitive position, really operational excellence in claims is another way to make sure that we pay what we owe, but that also will translate into a better competitive position over time.

是的。我想我將從我們過去幾年討論的利潤改善計劃開始，它是多維的。我們持續關注的一個面向是改善索賠營運執行。事實上，儘管繼續降低成本結構可以提高我們的競爭地位，但索賠方面真正卓越的運營是確保我們支付所欠款項的另一種方式，而且隨著時間的推移，這也將轉化為更好的競爭地位。

So we're focused on really, I would say, all elements of the claim process. It's people process, it's technology, analytics, and we're going to invest in the claims process moving forward across all those dimensions to just continue to invest in terms of people, making sure we have the right adjust their capacity. We went through pretty significant turnover. It was really in 2022. That has largely subsided.

因此，我想說，我們真正關注的是索賠過程的所有要素。這是人員流程、技術、分析，我們將在所有這些維度上對索賠流程進行投資，以繼續在人員方面進行投資，確保我們能夠正確調整他們的能力。我們經歷了相當大的營業額。那確實是在 2022 年。這種情況基本上已經平息。

So we have much more stability in terms of claims staffing, but we're focused on training claims staff and providing them the tools both in bodily injury and in physical damage to operate in a way that, again, we pay what we own, but we ensure that we eliminate any leakage in the system.

因此，我們在索賠人員配置方面更加穩定，但我們專注於培訓索賠人員，並為他們提供處理人身傷害和物理損壞的工具，以便我們再次支付我們擁有的費用，但是我們確保消除系統中的任何洩漏。

And again, that's been a core part of the profit improvement plan going forward. We're investing in people to provide more oversight and get more eyes on cars in the physical damage side to do a much more effective job in terms of total loss evaluation on the injury side.

再說一遍，這是未來利潤改善計畫的核心部分。我們正在對人員進行投資，以提供更多監督，並更多地關注物理損壞方面的汽車，以便在傷害方面的總損失評估方面做得更有效。

Tom mentioned, we're paying claims faster. We've reduced our pending inventory on the casualty side to the lowest level it's been since well before the pandemic. We think that continues to reduce reserve risk going forward.

湯姆提到，我們支付索賠的速度更快。我們已將傷亡方面的待處理庫存減少到疫情大流行之前以來的最低水準。我們認為這將繼續降低未來的準備金風險。

So I would say the -- really, the answer is we're going to continue to invest in claims broadly because we just do believe it's a core part of enabling us to be more competitive and ultimately translate into growth.

所以我想說的是——實際上，答案是我們將繼續廣泛投資理賠，因為我們相信這是使我們更具競爭力並最終轉化為成長的核心部分。

Let me link this to Greg's question as well because I think sometimes when we set goals out there and we talk about specific line items in the P&L, we don't always show the subtleties of how they are linked together. So we clearly have a goal to reduce expenses related to transformative growth, so we can be a low-cost provider.

讓我也將其與格雷格的問題聯繫起來，因為我認為有時當我們設定目標並討論損益表中的特定行項目時，我們並不總是顯示它們如何鏈接在一起的微妙之處。因此，我們的目標顯然是減少與轉型成長相關的費用，這樣我們就可以成為低成本的提供者。

That said, we -- that's not our primary goal. Our primary goal is to treat our customers really well to build a great long-term business platform and to settle our claims and run our business properly. So if it means we have to spend more money on claims personnel so that we lower -- so loss costs come down, and we think that's in the best interest of our shareholders and our customers, then we're going to do that even if expense -- the expense number goes up. So we put those numbers out there to help you say we're -- let you know we're managing them, but we're not captured by just that one line item.

也就是說，我們——這不是我們的主要目標。我們的首要目標是善待我們的客戶，建立一個偉大的長期業務平台，解決我們的索賠並妥善經營我們的業務。因此，如果這意味著我們必須在索賠人員上花更多的錢，以便我們降低損失成本，並且我們認為這符合我們的股東和客戶的最佳利益，那麼我們也會這樣做，即使費用——費用數字上升。因此，我們將這些數字放在那裡是為了幫助您說我們正在管理它們，但我們並不僅僅被這一行項目所捕獲。

And our next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

Once upon a time, you used to give us combined ratio guidance, and now you talk more about ROE guidance, which is sensible. But I look at the results in homeowners, and they are quite volatile and good this quarter. I want to know where we stand in terms of pricing adequacy broadly for the homeowners line. But more importantly, I want to assume pricing adequacy for bundlers. I assume that you have a pricing adequacy for monoline drivers and it's different for the bundlers. Are we at a point where you are very happy to take on bundlers at a nice level of profitability today?

曾幾何時，您曾經給我們提供綜合比率指導，現在您更多地談論ROE指導，這是明智的。但我觀察了房主的業績，發現本季的業績波動很大，但情況良好。我想知道我們在房主產品線的定價充足性方面處於什麼位置。但更重要的是，我想假設捆綁商的定價充足。我假設您對單線驅動程式有充足的定價，但對於捆綁商來說則不同。如今，您是否非常樂意以較高的盈利水平與捆綁商合作？

I'll let Mario take on the bundling question because we're really happy about that. Let me just -- in terms of the homeowners business, we really like the business. It's -- you see, look at our 6-year combined ratio before this year, was 92%. That's a really high return on equity. It's a great combined ratio. If you look at our underlying combined ratio this year, which excludes catastrophes, it's come down from last year. Obviously, we had a bad 2 quarters, but bad 2 quarters doesn't make a bad business. So we still really like the business. We've raised prices in the low teens this year from a variety of different ways. So we like that business.

我會讓馬裡奧來解決捆綁問題，因為我們對此感到非常高興。讓我說一下——就房主業務而言，我們真的很喜歡這個業務。你看，今年之前我們的 6 年綜合成本率為 92%。這是一個非常高的股本報酬率。這是一個很棒的綜合比率。如果你看看我們今年的基本綜合成本率（不包括災難），你會發現它比去年有所下降。顯然，我們有一個糟糕的兩個季度，但糟糕的兩個季度並不意味著生意不好。所以我們仍然非常喜歡這個行業。今年我們透過各種不同的方式將價格提高到十幾歲。所以我們喜歡這個行業。

If cats is the first 2 quarters are indicative of where we go in the future, our cats were up $2.5 billion this year versus the prior year. So if that's the case, I am confident we have a business model, which will adapt to it. We might not catch it before. You won't catch it before it happens, but we have a really great go-to-market business model. So we're really happy with the homeowners business.

如果前兩個季度的貓收入預示著我們未來的走向，那麼今年我們的貓收入比去年增加了 25 億美元。因此，如果是這樣的話，我相信我們有一個能夠適應這種情況的商業模式。以前我們可能沒發現。在它發生之前你不會發現它，但我們有一個非常好的進入市場的商業模式。所以我們對房主業務非常滿意。

Mario, do you want to talk about returns in the homeowner business and then the bundling question?

Mario，您想談談房主業務的回報以及捆綁問題嗎？

Yes. So Josh, in terms of overall rate adequacy, obviously, through the combination of the rates we've taken over the last couple of years plus the inflation in replacement values in homes, that's really fueling a pretty consistent and significant low-teens increase in average premium. So this quarter, that was about 12.5%. So we're seeing price flow through the system. And that doesn't include because, as you know, with the 12-month policy, it takes 24 months to turn in all that rate. So a lot of the rate we took in 2023, we've yet to earn, and we're going to keep at it in terms of staying on top of loss cost.

是的。因此，喬希，就總體利率充足性而言，顯然，透過過去幾年我們採取的利率加上房屋重置價值的通貨膨脹，這確實推動了相當一致且顯著的低青少年增長。平均保費。所以本季約為 12.5%。所以我們看到價格在系統中流動。這還不包括，因為如您所知，對於 12 個月的保單，需要 24 個月才能支付所有費率。因此，我們在 2023 年採取的大部分利率尚未實現，我們將在控制損失成本方面繼續保持這一水平。

The underlying combined ratio for the year was 67%. It improved by about 3 points. Mid-60s is where we'd like that number to be. So we're getting closer to that. We have more rate that's going to earn in. And as Tom mentioned, we feel really good about our capabilities and homeowners, and we're going to continue to lean in and look to grow that business.

本年度的基本綜合成本率為 67%。進步了約3分。我們希望這個數字在 60 年代中期。所以我們離這個目標越來越近了。我們有更多的利率可以賺取。正如湯姆所提到的，我們對我們的能力和房主感到非常滿意，我們將繼續努力並尋求發展這項業務。

From a bundling perspective, just 80% of our homeowners customers have a supporting line or bundled. That's a pretty meaningful number. And that could have a discount at upwards of 15%. And again, but we think with that pricing the lifetime value of that bundled segment is substantial, and we will write bundled customers all day long.

從捆綁銷售的角度來看，我們只有 80% 的房主客戶擁有支援熱線或捆綁銷售。這是一個非常有意義的數字。而且折扣可能高達 15%。再說一次，但我們認為，透過定價，該捆綁細分市場的終身價值是巨大的，我們將整天寫信給捆綁客戶。

Our agents are writing bundled business at an all-time high level, north of 70% of new business. We're incenting agents to write that. We're seeing more bundled business come through our call centers and our direct business. And as I talked earlier, Custom 360 going upmarket is both an auto and home offering.

我們的代理商正在以歷史最高水準撰寫捆綁業務，佔新業務的 70% 以上。我們正在激勵特工寫這篇文章。我們看到更多的捆綁業務透過我們的呼叫中心和直接業務來實現。正如我之前所說，Custom 360 走向高階市場既是汽車產品，也是家庭產品。

So I think we're well positioned across all 3 channels to continue to attract bundled business that we can be even more competitively priced in because of the discounting element, but also it's a segment that we think generates substantial lifetime value, and we're good at it. So we're going to keep at it.

因此，我認為我們在所有3 個管道中都處於有利地位，可以繼續吸引捆綁業務，由於折扣因素，我們可以在定價上更具競爭力，而且我們認為這是一個可以產生大量終身價值的細分市場，我們正在擅長。所以我們要堅持下去。

Josh, I know you're a student of our competitors. So you see both GEICO and Progressive talking more about bundling in their advertising. They obviously see also good customers there. Our difference is we expect to make money in homeowners.

喬什，我知道你是我們競爭對手的學生。所以你會看到 GEICO 和 Progressive 在他們的廣告中談論更多捆綁銷售。顯然他們在那裡也看到了好的客戶。我們的不同之處在於我們期望從房主那裡賺錢。

And if I just close a little bit on that, even though we're going to see some modest decline in auto policy count due to price increases and turning the book a little bit, are you net growing bundlers every day?

如果我只是結束一點，儘管我們將看到由於價格上漲和稍微翻動賬簿而導致汽車保單數量略有下降，但你們的捆綁商每天都在淨增長嗎？

I think we probably don't give that number out. But let's just say we have a high focus on bundling. Our agents are doing more bundling these days because we've changed the way in which we reward and compensate them. So we're continuing to hunt that one down.

我想我們可能不會透露這個數字。但我們只能說我們高度關注捆綁銷售。如今，我們的代理商進行了更多的捆綁銷售，因為我們改變了獎勵和補償他們的方式。所以我們正在繼續追捕那個人。

I think we have time for 1 more question.

我想我們還有時間再問 1 個問題。

Certainly. And our final question for today comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman from TD Cowen.

當然。我們今天的最後一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Andrew Kligerman。

Quick -- maybe some quick questions here. With regard to the impacts of unwinding the restrictions and increasing advertising, could you give us a sense of the impacts of each on the combined ratio?

快點——也許這裡有一些簡短的問題。關於放鬆限制和增加廣告的影響，您能否讓我們了解每種因素對綜合比率的影響？

Well, I think the first principal impact of unwinding underwriting restrictions will be to kind of increase the aperture of the types of risks that we'll be willing to write. Again, now that in the states that we're going to do that, we feel better and good about our rate adequacy. And that's true across segments, right? So we have a pretty sophisticated approach to pricing, where the prices accurately reflect the specific risks of each individual segment. So as we write business, it's going to be written at what we believe to be a rate adequate level.

嗯，我認為解除承保限制的第一個主要影響將是增加我們願意承保的風險類型的範圍。再說一遍，現在在我們打算這樣做的州，我們對我們的利率充足性感覺更好了。各個細分市場都是如此，對嗎？因此，我們有一個非常複雜的定價方法，價格準確地反映了每個細分市場的特定風險。因此，當我們撰寫業務時，將以我們認為足夠的速度編寫。

Now from a new business perspective, as we increase the volume of new business, that does tend to right run a higher loss ratio due to renewal relativity going forward. So it will have some impact on our overall combined ratio going forward. But we take that into account in terms of how we manage the business.

現在，從新業務的角度來看，隨著我們增加新業務量，由於未來的更新相對性，這確實會導致更高的損失率。因此，這將對我們未來的整體綜合成本率產生一些影響。但我們在管理業務時會考慮到這一點。

But we don't open the underwriting restrictions until we're comfortable with the rate level we're at. We price each risk according to its unique characteristics. Having said that, there is a new business penalty associated with higher new business volume. But again, we factor that in, in terms of how we manage the overall combined ratio in the business.

但在我們對目前的費率水準感到滿意之前，我們不會開放承保限制。我們根據每種風險的獨特特徵對其進行定價。話雖如此，新業務量的增加會帶來新的業務損失。但我們再次將這一點考慮到我們如何管理業務的整體綜合比率。

Got it. And then with regard to [Barry], just to make sure I'm clear on it. You talked about 8% to 9% in 2023. Is that what you're anticipating for 2024? And how are you thinking about frequency as well going into the year?

知道了。然後關於[巴里]，只是為了確保我清楚這一點。您談到 2023 年將達到 8% 到 9%。這是您對 2024 年的預期嗎？您如何看待今年的頻率？

We don't do forecast for either frequency or severity on a go-forward basis. I would say is whatever it is, we'll make sure we get priced for it.

我們不會對未來的頻率或嚴重程度進行預測。我想說的是，無論是什麼，我們都會確保定價。

Thank you all for spending time with us this quarter. Obviously, with the sunshine a little bit and a few less cats, it gave you the opportunity to see the benefits of all the hard work the team has been doing to improve profitability in auto insurance and making sure we keep our homeowners business strong. We didn't really get to our other businesses, but they also continue to do quite well, and our investment portfolio and team had a great year when you look at our total returns.

感謝大家本季與我們共度時光。顯然，隨著陽光的增加和貓的數量的減少，您將有機會看到團隊為提高汽車保險盈利能力並確保我們保持房主業務強勁而所做的所有努力所帶來的好處。我們並沒有真正進入我們的其他業務，但它們也繼續表現得很好，當你看到我們的總回報時，我們的投資組合和團隊度過了美好的一年。

So we feel good about where we're going forward. Thank you, and we'll see you next quarter.

因此，我們對未來的發展方向感到滿意。謝謝您，我們下季見。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。