Allstate Corp (ALL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Allstate's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.

感謝您的支持，歡迎來到 Allstate 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製中。

And now, I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Mr. Mark Nogal, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想介紹一下今天節目的主持人，投資者關係主管 Mark Nogal 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Jonathan.

謝謝你，喬納森。

Good morning. Welcome to Allstate's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. After prepared remarks, we'll have a question-and-answer session.

早上好。歡迎來到好事達 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。在準備好的評論之後，我們將進行問答環節。

Yesterday, following the close of the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement, filed our 10-Q and posted related material on our website at allstateinvestors.com. Our management team is here to provide perspective on these results.

昨天，市場收盤後，我們發布了新聞稿和投資者補充文件，提交了我們的 10-Q 並在我們的網站 allstateinvestors.com 上發布了相關材料。我們的管理團隊在這裡提供對這些結果的看法。

As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will contain non-GAAP measures, for which there are reconciliations in the news release and investor supplement, and forward-looking statements about Allstate's operations. Allstate's results may differ materially from these statements, so please refer to our 10-K for 2022 and other public documents for information on potential risks.

正如在演示文稿的第一張幻燈片中指出的那樣，我們的討論將包含非 GAAP 措施，在新聞稿和投資者補充中有對賬，以及關於 Allstate 運營的前瞻性陳述。 Allstate 的結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異，因此請參閱我們的 2022 年 10-K 和其他公開文件，了解有關潛在風險的信息。

As some of you know, this will be my final earnings call as the leader of our Investor Relations team, as I will be transitioning to a new role in our P&C finance area supporting National General. I'm leaving Investor Relations in the capable hands of Brent Vandermause, who will be a great partner for all of you going forward.

正如你們中的一些人所知，這將是我作為投資者關係團隊負責人的最後一次財報電話會議，因為我將過渡到支持 National General 的 P&C 財務領域的新角色。我將把投資者關係交給 Brent Vandermause 幹練的手，他將成為你們所有人前進的好夥伴。

And now, I'll turn it over to Tom.

現在，我將把它交給湯姆。

Good morning. We're excited for Mark, and we're completely confident that Brent is going to give you everything you need to help you decide how and why you want to invest in Allstate. So good morning. We appreciate the investment of your time in Allstate today.

早上好。我們為 Mark 感到興奮，我們完全相信 Brent 會為您提供所需的一切，幫助您決定如何以及為什麼要投資 Allstate。早上好。我們感謝您今天在 Allstate 的投入。

Let's start with an overview results, and then Mario and Jesse are going to walk through the operating results and the actions that we're taking to increase shareholder value.

讓我們從概覽結果開始，然後馬里奧和傑西將介紹運營結果以及我們為增加股東價值而採取的行動。

So let's start on Slide 2. Allstate's strategy, as you know, has 2 components: increase personal Property-Liability market share and expand Protection Services. Those are shown in the 2 ovals on the left.

那麼讓我們從幻燈片 2 開始。如您所知，Allstate 的戰略有兩個組成部分：增加個人財產責任市場份額和擴大保護服務。這些顯示在左側的 2 個橢圓中。

If you go to the right-hand side of the slide, you can see a summary of the results for the first quarter. We had a net loss of $346 million in the first quarter, which reflects a Property-Liability underwriting loss which was only partially offset by strong investment income and profits from Protection Services and Health and Benefits. We're making good progress on executing comprehensive plans to improve auto insurance profitability, and of course, we'll have a substantive discussion on that today. Not to be overlooked, we also continue to advance Transformative Growth plan, which is to execute the top oval there, which is to increase Property-Liability market share. At the same time, Allstate Protection Plans in the lower oval continues to expand its product offering and geographic footprint.

如果轉到幻燈片的右側，您可以看到第一季度的結果摘要。我們在第一季度的淨虧損為 3.46 億美元，這反映了財產負債承保虧損，但僅部分被保護服務和健康與福利的強勁投資收入和利潤所抵消。我們在執行提高汽車保險盈利能力的綜合計劃方面取得了良好進展，當然，我們今天將就此進行實質性討論。不容忽視的是，我們還繼續推進轉型增長計劃，即在那裡執行頂部橢圓形，以增加財產負債市場份額。與此同時，下橢圓形的 Allstate Protection Plans 繼續擴大其產品供應和地理足跡。

Let's review the financial results on Slide 3. Revenues of $13.8 billion in the first quarter increased 11.8% or nearly $1.5 billion as compared to the prior year quarter. The increase was driven by higher average premiums in auto and homeowners insurance, resulting in a Property-Liability earned premium growth of 10.8%. In the auto insurance line, higher insurance premiums and lower expenses were essentially offset by increased loss costs, so the profit improvement plan had not yet returned margins to historical levels. The auto insurance line had an underwriting loss of $346 million in the quarter.

讓我們回顧一下幻燈片 3 的財務結果。第一季度的收入為 138 億美元，與去年同期相比增長了 11.8% 或近 15 億美元。這一增長是由於汽車和房屋保險的平均保費較高，導致財產責任險保費增長 10.8%。在車險業務中，較高的保費和較低的費用基本上被損失成本的增加所抵消，因此利潤改善計劃尚未將利潤率恢復到歷史水平。汽車保險業務在本季度的承保虧損為 3.46 億美元。

In homeowners, the story is really about $1.7 billion of catastrophes, which led to an underwriting loss of $534 million. The total underwriting loss was just under $1 billion.

在房主方面，這個故事實際上是大約 17 億美元的災難，導致 5.34 億美元的承保損失。總承保損失略低於 10 億美元。

Net investment income of $575 million benefited from higher yields, which mostly offset an income decline from performance-based investments. Protection Services and Health and Benefits generated adjusted net income of $90 million in the quarter. As a result, the adjusted net loss was $342 million or $1.30 a share.

5.75 億美元的淨投資收入受益於較高的收益率，這主要抵消了基於績效的投資的收入下降。 Protection Services 和 Health and Benefits 在本季度產生了 9000 萬美元的調整後淨收入。因此，調整後的淨虧損為 3.42 億美元或每股 1.30 美元。

Now let me turn it over to Mario to discuss Property-Liability results.

現在讓我把它交給馬里奧來討論財產責任結果。

Thanks, Tom, and good morning, everybody.

謝謝，湯姆，大家早上好。

Let's flip to Slide 4. The chart on the left shows the Property-Liability recorded and underlying combined ratios since 2017. As you can see, Allstate has a long history of generating strong underwriting results though the current operating environment is challenging, with combined ratios over 100 last year and into the first quarter. The underlying combined ratio of 93.3 for the first quarter was slightly below the full year 2022.

讓我們翻到幻燈片 4。左邊的圖表顯示了自 2017 年以來記錄的財產負債率和基礎綜合比率。如您所見，Allstate 在產生強勁承保業績方面有著悠久的歷史，儘管當前的經營環境充滿挑戰，綜合比率去年和第一季度超過 100 個。第一季度的基礎綜合成本率為 93.3，略低於 2022 年全年。

The second chart compares the full year 2022 recorded combined ratio for all lines of business to the first quarter of this year, which removes the influence of intra-year severity changes that occurred throughout 2022. The first red bar shows the underlying loss ratio was essentially unchanged as higher premiums were offset by increased loss costs. The second red bar on the left shows most of the increase in the combined ratio was driven by higher catastrophe losses, reflecting the widespread severe weather in the first quarter of this year. Expenses were lower by 1.9 points of premiums and minimal non-catastrophe prior year reserve reestimates also had a positive impact.

第二張圖表將 2022 年全年記錄的所有業務線的綜合比率與今年第一季度進行了比較，這消除了整個 2022 年發生的年內嚴重性變化的影響。第一個紅色條顯示基本損失率基本上是由於較高的保費被增加的損失成本所抵消，因此保持不變。左邊的第二個紅色條顯示綜合成本率的大部分增長是由更高的巨災損失推動的，反映了今年第一季度普遍的惡劣天氣。費用比保費低 1.9 個百分點，上一年最小的非巨災準備金重新估計也產生了積極影響。

Let's move to Slide 5 to review Allstate's auto insurance profitability in more detail. As you can see from the chart on the left, which shows the auto insurance recorded and underlying combined ratios from 2017 through the current quarter, we have a long history of sustained profitability in auto insurance as we've successfully leveraged our capabilities in pricing sophistication, underwriting and claims expertise and expense management to generate excellent returns in the auto insurance business. Since mid-2021, loss costs have increased rapidly, driving combined ratios above our mid-90s target. The profit improvement plan is designed to address these significant loss cost increases, and we're making good progress.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 5 來更詳細地回顧 Allstate 的汽車保險盈利能力。正如您從左側圖表中看到的那樣，該圖表顯示了從 2017 年到本季度的汽車保險記錄和基礎綜合比率，我們在汽車保險領域擁有持續盈利的悠久歷史，因為我們成功地利用了我們在定價複雜性方面的能力、承保和索賠專業知識以及費用管理，以在汽車保險業務中產生出色的回報。自 2021 年年中以來，損失成本迅速增加，推動綜合成本率高於我們 90 年代中期的目標。利潤改善計劃旨在解決這些顯著的損失成本增加問題，我們正在取得良好進展。

The chart on the right compares the recorded combined ratio of 104.4 in the first quarter to full year 2022 results. Starting on the left, higher average earned premiums drove a 5.7 point favorable impact, which is shown in the first green bar. The first red bar reflects a 6.5 point increase in underlying loss cost due to increased accident frequency and severity for the 2023 report year, with severity currently projected in the 9% to 11% range above the full prior report year. A lower expense ratio reflects expense reductions and higher earned premiums. The remaining difference was due to catastrophes and prior year reserve reestimates. All in, both the recorded and underlying combined ratios of 104.4 and 102.6, respectively, improved in the first quarter of 2023 compared to the full year 2022.

右圖比較了第一季度記錄的綜合比率 104.4 與 2022 年全年的結果。從左側開始，較高的平均已賺保費帶來了 5.7 個百分點的有利影響，如第一個綠色條所示。第一個紅色條反映了由於 2023 報告年度事故頻率和嚴重程度的增加，潛在損失成本增加了 6.5 個百分點，目前預計嚴重程度比上一報告年度高 9% 至 11%。較低的費用比率反映了費用減少和更高的已賺保費。剩下的差異是由於災難和前一年的儲備重新估計。總而言之，與 2022 年全年相比，2023 年第一季度的記錄和基礎綜合比率分別為 104.4 和 102.6。

Slide 6 provides an update on the execution of our comprehensive approach to increase returns in auto insurance. There are 4 focus areas: raising rates; reducing expenses; implementing underwriting actions; and enhancing claim practices to manage loss costs.

幻燈片 6 提供了有關執行我們提高汽車保險回報的綜合方法的最新情況。有 4 個重點領域：提高利率；減少開支；實施承保行動；加強索賠實踐以管理損失成本。

Starting with rates. Following increases of 16.9% in 2022, the Allstate brand implemented an additional 1.7% of rate increases in the first quarter. We will continue to pursue rate increases in 2023 to restore auto insurance margins.

從費率開始。繼 2022 年增長 16.9% 之後，Allstate 品牌在第一季度又實施了 1.7% 的利率增長。我們將在 2023 年繼續尋求加息，以恢復汽車保險的利潤率。

Reducing operating expenses is core to Transformative Growth. We have also temporarily reduced advertising to reflect a lower appetite for new business.

減少運營費用是轉型增長的核心。我們還暫時減少了廣告，以反映對新業務的需求下降。

We implemented more restrictive underwriting actions on new business in locations and risk segments where we have not yet achieved adequate prices for the risk. As we move through 2023, it is likely that some of these restrictions will be removed where there are profitable growth opportunities.

我們對尚未達到足夠風險價格的地點和風險部門的新業務實施了更嚴格的承保行動。隨著 2023 年的到來，其中一些限制可能會在存在盈利增長機會的地方取消。

Enhancing claim practices in a high inflation environment is key to delivering customer value. This includes leveraging strategic partnerships and scale with repair facilities and parts suppliers to mitigate the cost of repairing vehicles. In addition, settlement of pending bodily injury claims has been accelerated to avoid continued increases in costs and settlements.

在高通脹環境中加強索賠實踐是提供客戶價值的關鍵。這包括利用與維修設施和零部件供應商的戰略合作夥伴關係和規模來降低維修車輛的成本。此外，還加快了未決人身傷害索賠的處理速度，以避免成本和結算持續增加。

Transitioning to Slide 7, let's discuss progress in 3 large states with a disproportionate impact on auto profitability. The table depicts Allstate brand auto new business production and rate actions for California, New York and New Jersey.

轉到幻燈片 7，讓我們討論 3 個對汽車盈利能力影響不成比例的大州的進展。該表描述了加利福尼亞、紐約和新澤西的 Allstate 品牌汽車新業務生產和利率行動。

As a result of implemented profitability actions, new issued applications from the combination of California, New York and New Jersey declined by 40% compared to the prior year quarter. The decline in these 3 states meaningfully contributed to the 22% decline countrywide.

由於實施了盈利行動，加利福尼亞、紐約和新澤西聯合發布的新申請與去年同期相比下降了 40%。這三個州的下降對全國下降 22% 做出了有意義的貢獻。

The right-hand portion of the table provides rate increases either taken or needed to improve margins. In California, we just received approval for a second 6.9% rate increase implemented in April, which will be effective in June. We continue to work closely with the California Department on the best path forward to getting rates to an adequate level and expect to file for an additional increase in the second quarter, which will reflect the balance of our full rate need.

表格的右側部分提供了為提高利潤率而採取或需要的加息。在加利福尼亞州，我們剛剛獲得批准，將於 4 月實施第二次 6.9% 的加息，並將於 6 月生效。我們繼續與加州部門密切合作，尋找將利率提高到適當水平的最佳途徑，並預計在第二季度申請額外增加，這將反映我們全部利率需求的平衡。

In New York, we filed for additional rate in the first quarter that is currently pending with the Department of Financial Services.

在紐約，我們在第一季度申請了額外利率，目前正在等待金融服務部的批准。

In New Jersey, we attained a 6.9% rate increase in the first quarter and expect to pursue additional filings in the second quarter.

在新澤西州，我們在第一季度實現了 6.9% 的增長率，並預計將在第二季度尋求更多申請。

As mentioned earlier, we anticipate implementing additional rate across the country into 2023 to counteract persistent loss cost increases.

如前所述，我們預計到 2023 年在全國范圍內實施附加費率，以抵消持續的損失成本增加。

Slide 8 dives deeper into how we are improving customer value through expense reductions. The chart on the left shows the property liability underwriting expense ratio over time and highlights drivers of the 2.9 points of improvement in the first quarter compared to the prior year quarter.

幻燈片 8 深入探討了我們如何通過削減開支來提高客戶價值。左圖顯示了一段時間內的財產責任承保費用率，並強調了第一季度與去年同期相比提高 2.9 個百分點的驅動因素。

The first green bar on the left shows the 2 point improvement impact from advertising spend, which has been reduced given a limited interest in new business at current rate levels. The last 2 green bars show a decline in operating and distribution costs mainly driven by lower agent- and employee-related costs and the impact of higher premiums.

左側的第一個綠色條顯示廣告支出帶來的 2 點改善影響，鑑於在當前費率水平下對新業務的興趣有限，該影響已經減少。最後 2 個綠色條顯示運營和分銷成本下降，這主要是由於代理和員工相關成本降低以及保費上漲的影響。

Shifting to our longer-term target on the right, we remain on pace to reducing the adjusted expense ratio to 23 by year-end 2024 as part of Transformative Growth. This metric starts with our underwriting expense ratio excluding restructuring, coronavirus-related expenses, amortization and impairment of purchased intangibles and advertising. It then adds in our claims expense ratio, excluding costs associated with settling catastrophe claims because catastrophe-related costs tend to fluctuate.

轉向我們右邊的長期目標，作為轉型增長的一部分，我們繼續努力到 2024 年底將調整後的費用比率降至 23。該指標從我們的承保費用率開始，不包括重組、冠狀病毒相關費用、攤銷和購買的無形資產和廣告的減值。然後它增加了我們的索賠費用比率，不包括與解決巨災索賠相關的成本，因為與巨災相關的成本往往會波動。

Through innovation and strong execution, we've driven significant improvement relative to 2018, with a first quarter adjusted expense ratio of 24.9. We expect to drive additional improvement, achieving an adjusted expense ratio of approximately 23 by the end of next year, which represents a 6-point reduction compared to 2018.

通過創新和強有力的執行，我們推動了相對於 2018 年的顯著改善，第一季度調整後的費用率為 24.9。我們預計將推動進一步改善，到明年年底實現調整後的費用比率約為 23，與 2018 年相比減少 6 個百分點。

The increase in average premiums certainly represents a tailwind. However, our intent in establishing the goal is to become more price competitive. This requires sustainable reduction in our cost structure with future focus on 3 principal areas, including: enhancing digitization and automation capabilities; improving operating efficiency through outsourcing, business model rationalization and centralized support; and enabling higher growth distribution at lower costs through changes in agency compensation structure and new agent models.

平均保費的增加無疑代表了順風。但是，我們制定目標的目的是提高價格競爭力。這需要持續降低我們的成本結構，未來將重點放在 3 個主要領域，包括：增強數字化和自動化能力；通過外包、業務模型合理化和集中支持提高運營效率；通過改變代理薪酬結構和新的代理模式，以更低的成本實現更高的增長分配。

Now let's move to Slide 9 to review homeowner insurance results, which incurred an underwriting loss in the quarter despite favorable underlying performance due to elevated catastrophe losses. We have a superior business model that includes differentiated product, underwriting, reinsurance and a claims ecosystem that is unique in the industry. As you can see by the chart on the left, this approach consistently generates industry-leading underwriting results despite quarterly or yearly fluctuations in catastrophe losses.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 9 來回顧一下房主保險的結果，儘管由於巨災損失增加而導致基本業績良好，但本季度仍出現承保損失。我們擁有卓越的商業模式，包括差異化產品、承保、再保險和業內獨一無二的理賠生態系統。正如您在左側圖表中看到的那樣，儘管巨災損失每季度或每年波動一次，但這種方法始終產生行業領先的承保業績。

The chart on the right shows key Allstate Protection homeowners insurance operating statistics for the first quarter. Net written premium increased 11.1% from the prior year quarter, predominantly driven by higher average gross written premium per policy in both the Allstate and National General brands and a 1.4% increase in policies in force.

右圖顯示了第一季度主要的 Allstate Protection 房主保險運營統計數據。淨承保保費較上年同期增長 11.1%，這主要是由於 Allstate 和 National General 品牌每份保單的平均毛承保保費較高以及有效保單增長 1.4%。

The first quarter homeowners combined ratio of 119 increased by 35.1 points compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting higher catastrophe losses primarily related to 5 large wind events in March. These accounted for more than 70% of catastrophe losses in the quarter. The first quarter catastrophe loss ratio was significantly elevated compared to the prior year and 10-year historical average by 36.2 and 30.5 points, respectively.

第一季度的房主綜合比率為 119，與去年同期相比增加了 35.1 個百分點，反映出主要與 3 月份的 5 次大型風力事件相關的巨災損失增加。這些佔本季度巨災損失的 70% 以上。與去年同期和 10 年曆史平均水平相比，第一季度的巨災損失率分別顯著提高了 36.2 和 30.5 個百分點。

The underlying combined ratio of 67.6 improved 0.4 points compared to the prior year quarter, driven by higher earned premium and a lower expense ratio partially offset by higher claim severity.

基礎綜合成本率為 67.6，與去年同期相比提高了 0.4 個百分點，這是由於較高的已賺保費和較低的費用率部分被較高的索賠嚴重程度所抵消。

Slide 10 provides an update on Transformative Growth. Transformative Growth remains a focus and is being executed in parallel with our profit improvement actions. We continue to make good progress on this multiyear initiative that spans 5 main components: improving customer value; expanding customer access; increasing sophistication and investment in customer acquisition; modernizing the technology ecosystem; and driving organizational transformation.

幻燈片 10 提供了轉型增長的更新。轉型增長仍然是一個重點，並與我們的利潤改善行動同步執行。我們繼續在這項涵蓋 5 個主要組成部分的多年計劃中取得良好進展：提高客戶價值；擴大客戶訪問；增加客戶獲取的複雜性和投資；使技術生態系統現代化；並推動組織轉型。

The bottom half of the slide highlights recent progress by intended outcome. Providing the lowest cost insurance through expense reductions, broad distribution and pricing sophistication is key to growth. Our Allstate brand relative competitive position has deteriorated recently as rate increases have exceeded some competitors. We expect that those competitors will eventually raise rates, improving our competitive position and growth prospects.

幻燈片的下半部分按預期結果突出顯示了最近的進展。通過減少費用、廣泛分銷和定價複雜性來提供成本最低的保險是增長的關鍵。我們的 Allstate 品牌的相對競爭地位最近有所惡化，因為利率漲幅超過了一些競爭對手。我們預計這些競爭對手最終會提高利率，從而改善我們的競爭地位和增長前景。

Distribution has been expanded by launching middle market and preferred products through independent agents under the National General brand. These products are currently available in approximately 25% of the U.S. market, with a plan to be in nearly every market by the end of next year.

通過在 National General 品牌下通過獨立代理商推出中間市場和首選產品，擴大了分銷範圍。這些產品目前在大約 25% 的美國市場上有售，併計劃在明年年底前進入幾乎所有市場。

Our new affordable, simple and connected auto product creates a differentiated customer experience, which is expected to become available in approximately 1/3 of the U.S. through the direct distribution channel by the end of this year.

我們新的經濟實惠、簡單且互聯的汽車產品創造了差異化的客戶體驗，預計到今年年底將在美國約 1/3 的地區通過直接分銷渠道銷售。

Deploying a new technology stack, integrating technology across brands and retiring legacy technology applications provides increased agility and lowers costs. This will be reflected in the sunset of the Esurance and Encompass technology platforms next year.

部署新的技術堆棧、跨品牌集成技術以及淘汰遺留技術應用程序可提高靈活性並降低成本。這將反映在明年 Esurance 和 Encompass 技術平台的淘汰中。

We believe Transformative Growth will lead to increased market share, and hence, higher company valuation multiples.

我們認為轉型增長將導致市場份額增加，從而提高公司估值倍數。

And now, I'll turn it over to Jesse to discuss the remainder of our results.

現在，我將把它交給 Jesse 來討論我們剩下的結果。

All right. Thank you, Mario.

好的。謝謝你，馬里奧。

Let's start with Slide 11, which covers results for our Protection Services and Health and Benefits businesses. The chart on the left shows Protection Services revenues, excluding the impact of net gains and losses on investments and derivatives, which increased 7% to $671 million in the first quarter compared to the prior year quarter. The increase reflects growth in Allstate Protection Plans and Allstate Dealer Services, partially offset by a decline in Arity. By leveraging the Allstate brand, excellent customer service, expanded product offerings and partnerships with leading retailers, Protection Plans continues to generate profitable growth, resulting in a 17% increase in the first quarter compared to the prior year quarter.

讓我們從幻燈片 11 開始，它涵蓋了我們的保護服務和健康與福利業務的結果。左圖顯示了保護服務收入，不包括淨損益對投資和衍生品的影響，與去年同期相比，第一季度增長 7% 至 6.71 億美元。這一增長反映了 Allstate Protection Plans 和 Allstate Dealer Services 的增長，部分被 Arity 的下降所抵消。通過利用 Allstate 品牌、卓越的客戶服務、擴大的產品供應以及與領先零售商的合作夥伴關係，Protection Plans 繼續實現盈利增長，第一季度與去年同期相比增長了 17%。

In the table below the chart, you will see that adjusted net income of $34 million in the first quarter decreased $19 million compared to the prior year, primarily due to higher appliance and furniture claims severity and a higher mix of lower-margin business as we invest in growth at Allstate Protection Plans. We will continue to invest in these businesses which provide an attractive opportunity to meet our customers' needs and create value for shareholders.

在圖表下方的表格中，您會看到第一季度調整後的淨收入為 3400 萬美元，與去年同期相比減少了 1900 萬美元，這主要是由於家電和家具索賠的嚴重程度更高，以及利潤率較低的業務組合更多，因為我們投資於 Allstate Protection Plans 的增長。我們將繼續投資於這些業務，這些業務提供了一個有吸引力的機會來滿足我們客戶的需求並為股東創造價值。

Shifting to the chart on the right, Health and Benefits provides stable revenues and is consistently profitable while protecting more than 4 million customers. Revenues of $583 million in the first quarter of 2023 increased by $3 million compared to the prior year quarter as an increase in group health and other revenue was partially offset by a reduction in individual health and employee benefits. Health and Benefits operating systems are being rebuilt to lower costs and support growth, which will leverage the Allstate brand and customer base to generate shareholder value.

轉到右側的圖表，Health and Benefits 提供穩定的收入並持續盈利，同時保護超過 400 萬客戶。 2023 年第一季度的收入為 5.83 億美元，較上年同期增加 300 萬美元，原因是團體健康和其他收入的增長部分被個人健康和員工福利的減少所抵消。正在重建健康和福利操作系統以降低成本並支持增長，這將利用 Allstate 品牌和客戶群來創造股東價值。

Adjusted net income of $56 million was in line with the prior year quarter.

調整後的淨收入為 5600 萬美元，與去年同期持平。

Effective January 1, 2023, we adopted the FASB guidance, revising the accounting for certain long-duration insurance contracts in the Allstate Health and Benefits segment using the modified retrospective approach to the transition date of January 1, 2021. This had an immaterial impact on our results.

自 2023 年 1 月 1 日起，我們採用了 FASB 指南，使用修改後的追溯法對過渡日期 2021 年 1 月 1 日修訂了 Allstate Health and Benefits 部分某些長期保險合同的會計處理。這對我們的結果。

Now let's move to Slide 12, which depicts trends in our investment portfolio allocation. Our active portfolio management includes comprehensive monitoring of markets, sectors and individual names, and we proactively reposition based on our views of economic conditions, market opportunities and the risk/return trade-off.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 12，它描述了我們投資組合分配的趨勢。我們積極的投資組合管理包括對市場、行業和個人名稱的全面監控，並且我們根據我們對經濟狀況、市場機會和風險/回報權衡的看法主動重新定位。

Asset class holdings are shown on the left. Our $63.5 billion investment portfolio includes a large allocation to high-quality interest-bearing assets, which has increased in recent years. In response to increasing recession risk, we defensively positioned the portfolio in 2022 by reducing our exposure to below investment-grade bonds and public equity. We maintained this defensive position in the first quarter with additional reductions in our public equity exposure.

資產類別持有量顯示在左側。我們 635 億美元的投資組合包括大量配置於近年來有所增加的優質生息資產。為了應對日益增加的衰退風險，我們在 2022 年通過減少對低於投資級別的債券和公共股票的敞口來對投資組合進行防禦性定位。我們在第一季度保持了這種防禦地位，進一步減少了我們的公共股票敞口。

Our performance-based portfolio, shown in green and gray, enhances long-term returns and is broadly diversified with more than 400 assets. The portfolio is largely U.S. exposures that span vintage years, sponsors and sectors.

我們以綠色和灰色顯示的基於績效的投資組合提高了長期回報，並廣泛多元化，擁有 400 多種資產。該投資組合主要是跨越年份、贊助商和行業的美國風險敞口。

Exposure to real estate and commercial mortgage loans is modest at $2.8 billion or 4% of the portfolio and is focused on more resilient sectors such as industrial and multifamily. We hold only $230 million in office properties for mortgages.

房地產和商業抵押貸款的風險敞口不大，為 28 億美元，佔投資組合的 4%，並專注於更具彈性的行業，如工業和多戶家庭。我們僅持有 2.3 億美元的辦公物業用於抵押。

In addition to real estate, we have selective exposure to the banking sector totaling about $4.5 billion and consists primarily of investment-grade, fixed income securities issued by large financial institutions. We hold $240 million of exposure to regional banks, primarily larger regional banks, and we did not realize significant losses related to recent bank failures. Our high-quality portfolio provides flexibility to take advantage of investment opportunities as economic conditions evolve while providing substantial liquidity to protect our customers.

除房地產外，我們還對銀行業進行了選擇性敞口，總額約為 45 億美元，主要包括大型金融機構發行的投資級固定收益證券。我們持有 2.4 億美元的地區性銀行敞口，主要是較大的地區性銀行，我們沒有意識到與近期銀行倒閉相關的重大損失。我們高質量的投資組合提供了靈活性，可以隨著經濟狀況的變化利用投資機會，同時提供大量流動性來保護我們的客戶。

Let's shift from investment allocation to performance on Slide 13. As shown in the table at the bottom of the chart on the left, total return on our portfolio was 2.4% in the first quarter and 1.2% over the last 12 months.

讓我們從幻燈片 13 的投資分配轉向業績。如左圖底部的表格所示，我們投資組合的總回報率在第一季度為 2.4%，過去 12 個月為 1.2%。

Net investment income, shown in the chart on the left, totaled $575 million in the quarter, which is $19 million below the first quarter of last year.

如左圖所示，本季度淨投資收入總計 5.75 億美元，比去年第一季度減少 1900 萬美元。

Market-based income of $507 million, shown in blue, was $184 million above the prior year quarter following the proactive decision to reposition the market-based portfolio into higher market yields and an increase in fixed income funded by our reduction in public equity.

基於市場的收入為 5.07 億美元，以藍色顯示，比上一季度高出 1.84 億美元，此前我們主動決定將基於市場的投資組合重新定位為更高的市場收益率，並通過減少公共股權來增加固定收益。

Performance-based income of $126 million, shown in black, was $180 million below a strong prior year quarter. Volatility from quarter-to-quarter on these assets is expected. Our portfolio management and the allocation of risk capital to investments is highly integrated with the assessment of risk-adjusted return opportunities across the enterprise.

基於績效的收入為 1.26 億美元，以黑色顯示，比去年同期的強勁表現低 1.8 億美元。預計這些資產的季度波動性。我們的投資組合管理和風險資本對投資的分配與整個企業風險調整回報機會的評估高度集成。

As you'll recall, in response to declines in auto insurance profitability, last year, we defensively positioned the portfolio against rising rates and reduced our exposure to recession-sensitive assets. As market rates rose, we began to increase the duration in the fourth quarter and ended the first quarter at 4 years. This duration extension locks in higher yields and income for longer while positioning the portfolio to benefit from potential future reductions in interest rates.

正如您所記得的那樣，為了應對汽車保險盈利能力的下降，去年，我們針對利率上升對投資組合進行了防禦性定位，並減少了我們對衰退敏感資產的敞口。隨著市場利率上升，我們開始增加第四季度的期限，並在第一季度結束時為 4 年。這種期限延長可以在更長時間內鎖定更高的收益率和收入，同時將投資組合定位為從未來可能的利率下降中受益。

The chart on the right shows the fixed income earned yield continues to rise and was 3.4% at quarter end. Our portfolio yield is still below the current intermediate corporate bond yield of approximately 5.1%, reflecting an additional opportunity to increase yields if rates stay at these levels.

右圖顯示固定收益收益率繼續上升，季度末為 3.4%。我們的投資組合收益率仍低於目前約 5.1% 的中間公司債券收益率，反映出如果利率保持在這些水平，則有額外的機會提高收益率。

To close, let's turn to Slide 14 to discuss Allstate's strong financial position and prudent approach to capital management. In light of recent financial events impacting the banking industry, let's start with an overview of Allstate's liabilities.

最後，讓我們轉到幻燈片 14，討論 Allstate 強大的財務狀況和審慎的資本管理方法。鑑於最近影響銀行業的金融事件，讓我們從概述 Allstate 的負債開始。

As you can see in the chart on the left, our liabilities primarily consist of property casualty claim reserves and unearned premiums that are not subject to unpredictable or immediate demands for repayment. Our sophisticated economic capital framework quantifies enterprise risk to establish capital targets by business, product, geography and investment while also providing additional capital for stress events or contingencies.

正如您在左側圖表中看到的，我們的負債主要包括財產傷亡索賠準備金和未到期保費，這些保費不受不可預測或即時的還款要求的影響。我們複雜的經濟資本框架量化企業風險，以按業務、產品、地域和投資確定資本目標，同時還為壓力事件或突發事件提供額外資本。

The framework incorporates regulatory capital standards, proprietary econometric modeling, I struggle with that, rating agency criteria and other external assessments. It is used through the company from individual product and state-based decisions to establishing the appropriate amount of capital for each company and the overall corporation. Allstate's capital of $19.2 billion exceeds our target capital based on this framework.

該框架結合了監管資本標準、專有計量經濟學模型，我對此感到困惑，評級機構標準和其他外部評估。從單個產品和基於狀態的決策到為每個公司和整個公司建立適當的資本數額，它在整個公司中得到使用。好事達 192 億美元的資本超過了我們基於此框架的目標資本。

Our ratings remain strong, with S&P and Moody's assigning an issuer credit rating of A minus and A3, respectively, to our recent senior debt offering.

我們的評級仍然很高，標準普爾和穆迪分別為我們最近發行的高級債券授予了 A-和 A3 的發行人信用評級。

Holding company assets of $4.2 billion as of the end of the first quarter represent approximately 2.5x our annual fixed charges.

截至第一季度末，控股公司資產為 42 億美元，約為我們年度固定費用的 2.5 倍。

We returned $377 million to shareholders in the quarter through dividends and share repurchases. As a sign of our financial strength and commitment to shareholder returns, the common dividend was increased by 4.7% in the first quarter and paid in early April.

我們在本季度通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 3.77 億美元。作為我們財務實力和對股東回報的承諾的標誌，第一季度的普通股息增加了 4.7%，並於 4 月初支付。

With that as context, let's open up the line for questions.

以此為背景，讓我們打開提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Gregory Peters from Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Gregory Peters。

Well. A lot to unpack in your comments. I think what I'd like to do for my question and follow-up would be to focus on, first, Slide 5. And I was interested in your comments about the average underlying loss ratio, I think, up 6.5% in first quarter versus the average earned premium being a good guide for 5.7%. I guess the question would be is the expectation that 6.5% is going to continue? And when will the average earned premium go beyond where the underlying loss ratio deterioration is?

出色地。很多東西要在你的評論中解壓。我想我想針對我的問題和後續行動做的是首先關注幻燈片 5。我對你對平均潛在損失率的評論很感興趣，我認為第一季度上升了 6.5%而平均已賺保費是 5.7% 的良好指導。我想問題是 6.5% 的預期會持續下去嗎？平均已賺保費何時會超過潛在損失率惡化的水平？

I'll get Mario to dig in on claim expenses.

我會讓馬里奧深入了解索賠費用。

When you look at the 5.7%, I'll remind you -- first, good morning, Greg. I'll remind you that remember, this is a number that's been trending up as the rates that we took in '21 and '22 start to be earned in. So we would expect that number to continue to increase as we earn in the rates we've already implemented, and so we think this.

當你看到 5.7% 時，我會提醒你——首先，早上好，格雷格。我會提醒您，請記住，隨著我們在 21 年和 22 年開始賺取的利率，這個數字一直呈上升趨勢。因此，我們預計隨著利率的上漲，這個數字會繼續增加我們已經實施了，所以我們這麼認為。

In terms of claims severity, I'll let Mario give you an update on where we are and what we're thinking about.

在索賠嚴重性方面，我會讓馬里奧向您介紹我們的最新情況以及我們的想法。

Yes. So in terms of claims severity, what we disclosed this quarter was across major coverages were running in the 9% to 11% range in both physical damage and in injury coverages. Really, the drivers of those costs, if you start with physical damage, we continue to see pretty persistent inflation, particularly in parts and labor costs to repair cars. Actually, used car prices or total values for used cars actually came down a little bit in the first quarter in our numbers, but we had a higher percentage of total loss frequency which impacted the mix, so those are really the drivers.

是的。因此，就索賠嚴重程度而言，我們本季度披露的主要保險範圍在人身傷害和傷害保險方面都在 9% 到 11% 的範圍內。真的，這些成本的驅動因素，如果你從物理損壞開始，我們會繼續看到相當持續的通貨膨脹，特別是在修理汽車的零件和人工成本方面。事實上，二手車價格或二手車總價值在第一季度實際上有所下降，但我們的總損失頻率百分比較高，這影響了組合，所以這些才是真正的驅動因素。

And on bodily injury, it's the same things we've been talking about. Medical inflation, medical consumption and attorney representation. So I think the drivers of severity continue to persist. In terms of where they're going forward, it's really anybody's guess, but I think our perspective is, and we've been pretty consistent on this point, we're going to continue to take prices up. We've been doing that really since the fourth quarter of 2021 throughout last year. That continued into the first quarter. We're going to continue to, on a forward-looking basis, implement rate increases to first catch up and then outpace loss cost trends. But our perspective on rates is we continue to need to push more price through the system, and we intend to do that throughout the balance of 2023.

關於身體傷害，這與我們一直在談論的事情相同。醫療通脹、醫療消費與律師代理。所以我認為嚴重性的驅動因素會繼續存在。就他們前進的方向而言，這真的是任何人的猜測，但我認為我們的觀點是，我們在這一點上一直非常一致，我們將繼續提高價格。從 2021 年第四季度到去年全年，我們一直在這樣做。這種情況一直持續到第一季度。我們將繼續在前瞻性的基礎上實施加息，以首先趕上然後超過損失成本趨勢。但我們對利率的看法是，我們繼續需要通過系統推動更多價格，我們打算在 2023 年剩餘時間裡這樣做。

Right. On Slide 7, you -- in your comments, you talked about those 3 states. And I guess a follow-up question would be, where do you think that's going to go from a rate perspective? I think you said in your comment, Mario, that you expect to file the balance of your full rate need in California, and won't that trigger a different process causing a delay in potential rate approvals? So give us some color on that slide, please.

正確的。在幻燈片 7 上，您在評論中談到了這 3 個州。我想接下來的問題是，從利率的角度來看，你認為這會走向何方？我想你在評論中說過，馬里奧，你希望在加利福尼亞提交你的全部利率需求的餘額，這不會觸發不同的流程導致潛在利率批准的延遲嗎？請給我們幻燈片上的一些顏色。

Sure. So first I'll start with as we talked about, we just got approval for a second 6.9% auto rate increase in California, so we're -- going back to the fourth quarter of last year, we've got approval for 2 6.9% rates, and we've done that by working closely with the department to lay out our data and our loss costs.

當然。首先，正如我們所討論的那樣，我們剛剛獲得了加州第二次 6.9% 的汽車利率上調的批准，所以我們——回到去年第四季度，我們已經批准了 2 6.9% 的費率，我們通過與部門密切合作來確定我們的數據和損失成本來做到這一點。

In those conversations, and I think you've seen some of this across the industry, the department is really encouraging carriers to file for the rate need that they have in their book as opposed to going forward with 6.9% rate increase filings, and it's really based on just the volume of rate filings they're getting. So as we talk to the commissioner and the department, we got -- we're able to secure approval for the 2 6.9% rate increases, and we intend on filing the balance of our rate need going forward.

在這些談話中，我想你已經在整個行業看到了一些這樣的情況，該部門確實鼓勵承運人提出他們在賬簿中的費率需求，而不是繼續提交 6.9% 的費率增長申請，這是實際上僅基於他們收到的費率申請量。因此，當我們與專員和部門交談時，我們得到了——我們能夠獲得 2 次 6.9% 加息的批准，並且我們打算提交我們未來利率需求的餘額。

Does that create risk in intervention? It does. But I think we need to get California auto prices back to where they need to be so that we can create the kind of availability for consumers, really, that they deserve in California. So we're going to work with the department closely, we're going to make that filing, and then we'll see where that takes us going forward.

這會產生干預風險嗎？確實如此。但我認為我們需要讓加州的汽車價格回到他們需要的水平，這樣我們才能為消費者創造他們在加州應得的可用性。因此，我們將與該部門密切合作，我們將提交該文件，然後我們將看看這將把我們帶到哪裡去。

So Greg, I think embedded in your question is, will you be challenged on something above 6.9%? The strategy that Guy Hill and team put into place was take 6.9% -- get 6.9%, don't have to have a consumer advocate come in and look at it, get another 6.9% and then go for the full rate. So what you're seeing us do it in 3 chunks. Other people have tried to do it other ways. We think this is the right way for us.

所以格雷格，我認為你的問題中包含的是，你會在 6.9% 以上的事情上受到挑戰嗎？ Guy Hill 和團隊實施的策略是佔 6.9%——佔 6.9%，不必讓消費者權益倡導者進來查看，再佔 6.9%，然後爭取全額。所以你看到我們分 3 個部分來做。其他人嘗試以其他方式做到這一點。我們認為這對我們來說是正確的方式。

Got it. In New York, New Jersey?

知道了。在紐約，新澤西？

Yes. We got some rate filings pending with the New York department that hopefully will get resolved soon. And then New Jersey, you see, we were able to implement a rate increase and we're going to come back and file another rate increase. So we're working hard to get these 3 states off of this page.

是的。我們收到了一些正在等待紐約部門處理的利率申請，希望能盡快得到解決。然後是新澤西州，你看，我們能夠實施加息，我們將回來提交另一次加息。因此，我們正在努力將這 3 種狀態從該頁面中刪除。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。

I was hoping you could give us a little bit more additional color on the claims inflation rate. Is it fair to say that what we saw in the first quarter was an acceleration of frequency or severity trends that was unexpected? And if so, maybe you could talk about a little bit more the pieces that were that much worse that may have seemed to have caught some people in the industry off guard.

我希望你能給我們更多關於索賠通貨膨脹率的顏色。可以公平地說，我們在第一季度看到的是意外頻率或嚴重程度趨勢的加速嗎？如果是這樣，也許你可以多談談那些更糟糕的部分，這些部分似乎讓業內一些人措手不及。

Paul, you were breaking up a little bit, so let me just make sure I get it. So we're talking about auto insurance severity trends first quarter versus -- is that a tick up from what you saw last year? Or is it the level -- I'll -- If that's the question, I'll just -- Mario can jump into that.

保羅，你有點分手了，所以讓我確保我明白了。所以我們談論的是第一季度的汽車保險嚴重程度趨勢——與去年相比有所上升嗎？或者是水平 - 我會 - 如果這是問題，我會 - 馬里奧可以跳進去。

Yes, you got it.

是的，你明白了。

Yes, Paul. I guess what I would say about severity, again, in that 9% to 11% range is it just remains persistently high, I think, is how I would describe it, and that's true across coverages. It's certainly lower than what our expectations were for severity last year, what our ultimate forecast is for 2022. But it still remains at elevated levels, which is why I go back to we're going to need to continue to push rate through the system through the balance of this year to combat that inflation.

是的，保羅。我想我要說的是嚴重性，在 9% 到 11% 的範圍內，它一直保持高位，我認為，這就是我描述它的方式，並且在所有報導中都是如此。它肯定低於我們去年對嚴重程度的預期，即我們對 2022 年的最終預測。但它仍處於較高水平，這就是為什麼我回到我們需要繼續推動整個系統的利率通過今年的餘額來對抗通貨膨脹。

Is that -- should we interpret that as a further acceleration of rate? I mean, I think you were expecting to put rate -- more rate anyway, right? I guess the question is do we have a step function up a little bit from where we would have been 3 months ago?

那是——我們應該將其解釋為速率的進一步加速嗎？我的意思是，我認為你希望提高利率 - 無論如何，對吧？我想問題是我們是否有一個比 3 個月前更高的階躍函數？

Yes. Paul, I think there's a little bit of -- I mean, when you're looking at the percentages, it gets a little confusing when you're in a high increase environment. So if you looked at the numbers that Mario was talking about, are the percentages up versus the full year of 2022, not versus the first quarter of last year. As you know, the percentages kept going up as we moved throughout the year and we adjusted our results. And so what we've decided to do is to talk about the percentages up versus the full year.

是的。保羅，我認為有一點——我的意思是，當你查看百分比時，當你處於高增長環境中時，它會變得有點混亂。因此，如果您查看馬里奧所說的數字，與 2022 年全年相比百分比是否有所上升，而不是與去年第一季度相比。如您所知，隨著我們全年移動並調整我們的結果，百分比不斷上升。因此，我們決定做的是討論與全年相比的百分比。

And I think Mario said it well, which is it continues to be high. And so we're trying to -- if you look at the percentage up versus what we thought it was in the first quarter, it would be higher than 10% to 11%, but it's not higher than what we thought the first quarter was at the end of last year. So as it relates to pricing, we're looking at just total loss cost frequency and severity, and we have to -- we believe we have to continue to increase prices this year. As Mario talked about, we were up almost 17% in the Allstate brand last year. I don't know. We don't have a target for what it will be this year. As Mario said, it's going to be what it needs to be.

而且我認為馬里奧說得很好，它仍然很高。因此，我們正在努力 - 如果你看看第一季度與我們認為的百分比相比，它會高於 10% 到 11%，但它不會高於我們認為的第一季度在去年年底。因此，就定價而言，我們只關注總損失成本的頻率和嚴重程度，我們必須——我們相信我們今年必須繼續提高價格。正如馬里奧所說，去年我們在 Allstate 品牌中上漲了近 17%。我不知道。我們沒有今年的目標。正如馬里奧所說，它會成為它需要成為的樣子。

No, that's helpful. I always appreciate the help, and I'll let some other folks ask questions.

不，那很有幫助。我總是感謝您的幫助，我會讓其他人提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question, I just wanted to talk about your RBC ratio. I mean, we see the cat losses and we can see the impact that that would have had on statutory income in the quarter. But you guys also did cut your equity investments in 1/2, which I think could have maybe a 20-point benefit in RBC. Is there a way for you guys to walk through the moving components of RBC in the quarter and give us a sense of where your RBC ratio would be within AIC at the end of the Q1?

我的第一個問題，我只想談談您的 RBC 比率。我的意思是，我們看到巨災損失，我們可以看到這對本季度法定收入的影響。但是你們也確實削減了 1/2 的股權投資，我認為這可能會給 RBC 帶來 20 點的收益。有沒有辦法讓你們了解本季度 RBC 的移動組成部分，讓我們了解第一季度末你們的 RBC 比率在 AIC 中的位置？

Elyse, thanks for the question. Let me provide a little overview and then Jesse can jump in for the specifics.

愛麗絲，謝謝你的提問。讓我提供一些概述，然後 Jesse 可以插手了解細節。

The headline would be, we don't just look at RBC. And so as Jesse said, so -- I mean, if you step back and say, what are the learnings from the recent bank failures? Having a capital problem is not something that just happens to you like an auto accident, right? It's a result of a series of choices made over time. So in terms of our series of choices, we had this really comprehensive set of processes around those choices that are highly analytical. We look at all kinds of scenarios. We look at it frequently, and as a result of that, we come up with what we think the right amount of capital is. It includes things like RBC. It includes things like the rating agencies. It includes, in some cases, we are more restrictive in terms of the amount of capital we think we need than other people. So we don't play the game of RBC arbitrage, so to speak, and fool ourselves.

標題是，我們不只是看加拿大皇家銀行。正如傑西所說，所以——我的意思是，如果你退一步說，從最近的銀行倒閉中學到了什麼？資金出現問題，不是車禍這樣的事，對吧？這是隨著時間的推移做出的一系列選擇的結果。因此，就我們的一系列選擇而言，我們圍繞這些高度分析的選擇擁有一套非常全面的流程。我們會考慮各種情況。我們經常查看它，因此，我們得出了我們認為合適的資本數額。它包括 RBC 之類的東西。它包括評級機構之類的東西。它包括，在某些情況下，我們認為我們需要的資金數量比其他人更嚴格。所以我們不玩 RBC 套利遊戲，可以這麼說，自欺欺人。

With that, Jesse, do you want to talk about how you think about capital and where we're at?

有了這個，傑西，你想談談你如何看待資本以及我們所處的位置嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Tom. I mean I think, as you and I have talked before at least, we try and take a look at our capital position using our sophisticated economic capital model and not just the RBC ratios. We don't -- just to be clear, to your specific question, we don't publish and have not published the RBC ratio for this quarter, and so I'm not in a position to take you through the bits and pieces on this call. I think directionally, you and others have noted what the RBC impacts would be.

是的。謝謝，湯姆。我的意思是我認為，至少正如你和我之前談過的那樣，我們嘗試使用我們複雜的經濟資本模型來審視我們的資本狀況，而不僅僅是 RBC 比率。我們不會 - 只是為了明確，對於你的具體問題，我們沒有發布也沒有發布本季度的 RBC 比率，所以我無法帶你了解點點滴滴這個電話。我認為方向性的是，您和其他人已經註意到 RBC 的影響是什麼。

But I think it's more important to think about the way that we manage capital and the way that we look at it on a comprehensive basis, not just an RBC basis. And I think you've seen reflected in the results that we continue to proactively manage our overall capital position.

但我認為更重要的是考慮我們管理資本的方式以及我們在綜合基礎上看待它的方式，而不僅僅是 RBC 基礎。而且我認為您已經看到我們繼續積極管理我們的整體資本狀況的結果。

So again, I go back to our economic capital model, the sophisticated and comprehensive way that we look at capital, including all different sources and uses, and feel confident in our capital position being, as I said in my prepared remarks, above our internal targeted levels.

因此，我再次回到我們的經濟資本模型，這是我們看待資本的複雜而全面的方式，包括所有不同的來源和用途，並對我們的資本狀況充滿信心，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，高於我們的內部有針對性的水平。

But you shouldn't take the fact that we have less equity as a statement that we thought we needed to save capital. We have less public equity holdings because we didn't think it was a good risk/return trade-off, which John will be happy to talk about if somebody wants to go through. But we think we have plenty of capital to run this business.

但是你不應該把我們的資產減少這一事實當作我們認為我們需要節省資本的聲明。我們持有較少的公共股權，因為我們認為這不是一個很好的風險/回報權衡，如果有人想通過，約翰會很樂意談論這一點。但我們認為我們有足夠的資金來經營這項業務。

And then my second question, your personal auto underlying loss ratio did improve sequentially, right? There -- some noise, right, as there were some true-ups in the fourth quarter last year. And also, I thought that seasonally, Q1 for auto tends to be better. But I guess you put this all together and you guys are talking about taking -- still earning in some -- a good amount of rate increases, do you think that the personal auto loss ratio peaked in the first quarter? And should we expect it to improve from here?

然後我的第二個問題，你個人的汽車基礎損失率確實是連續提高的，對吧？那裡 - 一些噪音，對，因為去年第四季度有一些調整。而且，我認為從季節性來看，汽車的第一季度往往會更好。但我想你把所有這些放在一起，你們正在談論——仍然在一些方面賺取——大量的利率增長，你認為個人汽車損失率在第一季度達到頂峰嗎？我們應該期望它從這裡有所改善嗎？

Well, first, we think the profit improvement plan is working. I would say, Elyse, that if you just summarize the first quarter, I would say we held serve. We held serve in the face of, if you're a tennis fan, 120-mile an hour serve, which was called continued high increase in severity. How will -- we've returned the ball, and as you point out, it's about where it was last year. It is improved sequentially in the fourth quarter, but you're absolutely right. And there were some other things going around in the fourth quarter related to the first, second and third quarter of last year. So it's not quite fair to say that it improved. I would just say we held serve.

那麼，首先，我們認為利潤改善計劃正在發揮作用。我會說，愛麗絲，如果你只是總結第一節，我會說我們守住了發球局。如果你是網球迷，我們會發球，發球時速為 120 英里，這被稱為嚴重程度的持續高增長。將如何——我們已經回擊了球，正如你所指出的，這與去年的情況差不多。它在第四季度連續改進，但你是絕對正確的。第四季度還有一些其他事情與去年第一、第二和第三季度有關。所以說它有所改善是不太公平的。我只想說我們發球了。

We feel good about where we're going. It's -- in our mind, it's a question of when, not if we will get back to how we make profitability. And that's, of course, dependent on what happens with inflation and costs.

我們對我們要去的地方感覺很好。這是 - 在我們看來，這是一個時間問題，而不是我們是否會回到我們如何盈利的問題。當然，這取決於通貨膨脹和成本的變化。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar from Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar 系列。

Maybe starting with the current capital position, the reallocation of some of the investments. Can you maybe talk about how you see the capital in maybe capital market stress scenarios? And I'm sure you run those internally. Any color you can offer around that would be much appreciated.

也許從目前的資本狀況開始，重新分配一些投資。您能否談談您如何看待資本市場壓力情景中的資本？而且我確定您在內部運行這些。您可以提供的任何顏色都將不勝感激。

Yaron, I'm not exactly sure. Maybe you can give me another layer down in the question so we can get specific for you?

亞龍，我不太確定。也許你可以在問題中再給我一層，這樣我們就可以為你提供具體的信息？

Sure. So I think you're talking about, what, roughly $4 billion of liquidity or access of the holdco and I think $16 billion of liquidity. What happens to those if we find capital markets stressed? I don't know if there's another 25% decrease in the equity markets, maybe a credit cycle. I'm not exactly sure what kind of scenario to paint because I don't want to put you on the spot with a specific set of declines, but I'm sure you do test this excess capital availability against stresses in the system.

當然。所以我認為你在談論什麼，大約 40 億美元的流動性或控股公司的使用權，我認為是 160 億美元的流動性。如果我們發現資本市場壓力重重，那些人會怎樣？我不知道股市是否還會再下跌 25%，也許是信貸週期。我不確定要描繪什麼樣的場景，因為我不想讓你在特定的一組下降中當場，但我相信你確實會測試這種過剩的資本可用性以應對系統中的壓力。

Yes. No, it's a good point. Let me get John to answer it better. I'll give you a little overview.

是的。不，這是一個很好的觀點。讓我讓約翰更好地回答這個問題。我會給你一個小概述。

First, I would just say analytics everywhere. It [x4] how we run this place. So whether that's using sophisticated models this time, whether it's [total the] car or extending duration or what we're doing with capital. And so when we look at the extension of duration, I think John ran like 9 different scenarios, how to do it, what to do it, what -- so we're all over that.

首先，我只想說分析無處不在。它 [x4] 我們如何經營這個地方。因此，無論這次是使用複雜的模型，還是 [total the] 汽車或延長持續時間，或者我們正在用資本做什麼。因此，當我們查看持續時間的延長時，我認為 John 運行了 9 種不同的場景，如何做，做什麼，什麼 - 所以我們已經完成了。

When it comes to stress events in the capital markets, we look at all kinds of alternatives there. Everything from -- and what do we do if the the government defaults to what do we do if there's more bank failures. And so we have -- and John can tell you sort of how he's thinking about how we allocate assets in the portfolio relative to events in today's market.

當談到資本市場的壓力事件時，我們會考慮那裡的各種替代方案。一切從——如果政府違約我們該怎麼辦，如果有更多的銀行倒閉我們該怎麼辦。所以我們 - 約翰可以告訴你他是如何考慮我們如何根據當今市場的事件在投資組合中分配資產的。

I would say from an overall capital standpoint, which is we got plenty of money. Like you saw our liabilities, they're very predictable, and so nobody is going to run in and say give us back our $10 billion and we don't have it. At the same time, we have a really highly liquid portfolio because so much of it's investment-grade fixed income. If the fixed -- investment-grade fixed income markets completely shut down, we would still probably be fine. But no, probably we would be fine because we're having cash come in in terms of unearned premiums every day, so we don't really have any overall liquidity issues. But in terms of capital market stress and how you think about that from an investment decisions and where we're invested today, John can give you some perspective.

從整體資本的角度來看，我想說的是，我們有很多錢。就像你看到我們的負債一樣，它們是非常可預測的，所以沒有人會跑進來說把我們的 100 億美元還給我們，而我們沒有。與此同時，我們擁有一個流動性非常高的投資組合，因為其中很大一部分是投資級固定收益。如果固定——投資級固定收益市場完全關閉，我們可能仍然會沒事。但不，我們可能會沒事，因為我們每天都有現金以未賺取的保費形式出現，所以我們真的沒有任何整體流動性問題。但是就資本市場壓力以及您如何從投資決策以及我們今天投資的地方來考慮這一點而言，約翰可以給您一些看法。

Yes. Yaron, thank you so much for the question. Just a piece of data. If we couldn't trade security, we'd have $5 billion of cash coming in in the next year just by things that are rolling off. It's highly integrated into the overall data and analytics and quantitative framework across the enterprise. So I'd -- and I answer this question, I feel confident that scores of people on the investment team could answer it too because it's part of the way that we think. We're not managing an investment portfolio separate from the way that we think about the enterprise.

是的。 Yaron，非常感謝你提出這個問題。只是一個數據。如果我們不能交易安全性，明年我們將有 50 億美元的現金通過滾滾而來的東西進來。它高度集成到整個企業的整體數據和分析以及定量框架中。所以我——我會回答這個問題，我相信投資團隊中的許多人也能回答這個問題，因為這是我們思考方式的一部分。我們並沒有脫離我們對企業的思考方式來管理投資組合。

Tom talked a little bit about the duration trade that we did that was highlighted in the materials. That's not taken in isolation of how all the other securities in the portfolio would perform, and it's not taken in isolation on how we think about the entire enterprise, what happens in underwriting and other areas. We run probably 100 different scenarios on a daily basis that look back at things that have happened in the past, things that could happen in the future, what that means for returns and what that means for capital. And we subscribe to getting the order of ready, aim, fire right, so we really aim a lot as we think about our investment profile.

湯姆談到了我們所做的持續時間交易，這些交易在材料中得到了強調。這並不是孤立地考慮投資組合中所有其他證券的表現，也不是孤立地考慮我們如何看待整個企業、承銷和其他領域發生的事情。我們每天可能會運行 100 種不同的場景，回顧過去發生的事情、未來可能發生的事情、這對回報意味著什麼以及對資本意味著什麼。我們遵守準備、瞄準、開火的順序，所以在考慮我們的投資概況時，我們確實瞄準了很多目標。

And then maybe shifting back to the auto book. Is the piece or the cadence of rate increases that you expect to file in auto kind of similar to where it was when we ended 2022? Or do you see maybe additional rate increases are necessary today relative to the plan at the beginning of the year?

然後可能會轉回自動預訂。您希望在汽車中提交的加息幅度或節奏是否類似於我們在 2022 年結束時的情況？或者你認為相對於年初的計劃，今天可能需要額外加息嗎？

Versus the plans at the beginning of the year. So maybe I'll give an overview, Mario, with an analogy and you can (inaudible). We're running as fast and as hard as we can on rates everywhere. If we need them, we're really running fast and hard. If we think we're actually adequately priced in some states where we are today, we're still paying attention. We're still on the track. We're so warmed up and ready to run if we need to be.

與年初的計劃相比。所以也許我會給出一個概述，馬里奧，用一個類比，你可以（聽不清）。我們在各地的費率上都盡可能快和努力地運行。如果我們需要他們，我們真的會快速而努力地奔跑。如果我們認為我們在今天所處的某些州實際上定價合理，我們仍在關注。我們仍在軌道上。如果我們需要的話，我們已經熱身並準備好跑步了。

Yes. What I would add, Yaron, I'm going to go back to a comment I made earlier, which is we've been pretty consistent on this point of the need to take prices up going back to last year, and that hasn't changed. Now obviously, we react to new data, new information in real time, and the absolute amount of rate we take is going to be dependent on that updated data. As Tom mentioned earlier, we rely on heavy-duty analytics to manage the business and we respond to what's happening in real time, so the amount of rate we need will be dependent on how loss costs play out over time for us.

是的。我要補充的是，Yaron，我要回到我之前發表的評論，那就是我們在這一點上一直非常一致地認為需要提高價格，這可以追溯到去年，但事實並非如此變了。很明顯，我們實時對新數據、新信息做出反應，我們採取的絕對速率將取決於更新後的數據。正如 Tom 之前提到的，我們依靠重型分析來管理業務，並且我們實時響應正在發生的事情，因此我們需要的利率將取決於損失成本如何隨著時間的推移對我們產生影響。

But we're going to continue to push rate through the system. We've been successful at that. I wouldn't get too hung up on quarter-to-quarter fluctuations because that quarterly number is going to bounce around in terms of the rates that were approved in a particular state and the size of those rates. But I think thematically, and we go back to what we've been saying now for -- over the last year, which is we're going to continue to take the rate that we need to get auto margins back to where they need to be, which is in the mid-90s targets that we have.

但我們將繼續通過系統推動利率。我們在這方面取得了成功。我不會太在意季度間的波動，因為根據特定州批准的利率和這些利率的規模，該季度數字會出現反彈。但我認為從主題上講，我們回到我們現在所說的——在過去的一年裡，我們將繼續採取我們需要的速度，使汽車利潤率回到他們需要的水平是，這是我們在 90 年代中期的目標。

And good luck, Mark, with the new role.

祝馬克在新角色上好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman from Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Andrew Kligerman。

I'm trying to unpack the earlier comment about used car prices coming down a bit because the Manheim Index was up about 8.6%, and that's kind of a forward-looking indicator. So maybe you could give a little color on what your expectation there is for used car prices? Does that kind of fit in your 9% to 11% or could it -- of projected severity increase? Or could it be materially higher as we look out in the year?

我試圖解釋之前關於二手車價格略有下降的評論，因為曼海姆指數上漲了約 8.6%，這是一個前瞻性指標。那麼，也許您可以稍微說明一下您對二手車價格的預期？這種情況是否符合您 9% 到 11% 的預期嚴重程度？或者它會比我們今年看到的更高嗎？

Andrew, it's Mario. Thanks for the question. I guess what I'd start with, there's a number of indices for used car prices. I think you mentioned one with Manheim that tends to focus on wholesale prices. And I think as we all know, that metric was coming down most of last -- or certainly in the back half of last year, and then started to tick up in the end of the fourth quarter and has continued into this year.

安德魯，是馬里奧。謝謝你的問題。我想我會從什麼開始，有許多二手車價格指數。我想你提到了一個與 Manheim 的合作，它傾向於關注批發價格。我認為，眾所周知，該指標在過去的大部分時間裡都在下降——或者肯定是在去年下半年，然後在第四季度末開始回升，並一直持續到今年。

What I was referring to earlier is actual total loss severity, which tends to lag the Manheim Index and is more a function of retail used car prices, which have improved, and that's what I was referring to in the quarter. What we saw was actually used car -- or, I'm sorry, total loss severity actually improved a little bit year-over-year.

我之前提到的是實際總損失的嚴重程度，它往往落後於 Manheim 指數，並且更多地是零售二手車價格的函數，後者有所改善，這就是我在本季度所指的。我們看到的實際上是二手車——或者，對不起，總損失的嚴重程度實際上比去年同期有所改善。

In terms of the risk going forward, I think, yes. If you look at what's happening with the Manheim Index and other indices, certainly, they're headed in a different direction than they were headed for much of last year, which adds risk. We've tried to factor that into our severity expectations in terms of what we're recording that 9% to 11% range. But what we actually saw in the first quarter of this year was a modest improvement in total loss severity.

就未來的風險而言，我認為是的。如果你看看曼海姆指數和其他指數的情況，當然，它們的方向與去年大部分時間不同，這增加了風險。根據我們記錄的 9% 到 11% 的範圍，我們試圖將其納入我們的嚴重性預期。但我們在今年第一季度實際看到的是總損失嚴重程度的適度改善。

Got it. All right. And then it was interesting -- been interesting following National General with auto policies in force now of about $4.6 million off pretty significantly from $4.1 million last year. It looks like you're getting good rate increases. Your combined underlying was 94%, so -- which is pretty decent.

知道了。好的。然後很有趣——在 National General 之後，現在生效的汽車政策從去年的 410 萬美元大幅減少了約 460 萬美元，這很有趣。看來你的加息幅度不錯。你的綜合基礎是 94%，所以——這是相當不錯的。

So looking forward, it sounds like you haven't fully rolled it out. Is this something that could really catapult your policy in force at a very responsible return? I mean, maybe a little color on how that -- what your expectations over the next year to -- for policy growth and doing so profitably?

所以向前看，聽起來你還沒有完全推出它。這真的可以讓您的保單在非常負責任的回報下生效嗎？我的意思是，也許有點顏色 - 你對明年的預期 - 政策增長和這樣做有利可圖？

Andrew, thanks for focusing in on National General. For summary, we feel really good about the acquisition of National General. If you just start with the math, the numbers, it's exceeded our expectations and assumptions because as you'll remember, we mostly bought that so we could reduce our expenses in the independent agent channel by folding, basically having them reverse acquire Encompass, we just happened to buy them first. And so they've -- and that's ahead of plan and the numbers are bigger. So we're feeling really good about that, and that's the way we priced the deal.

安德魯，感謝您關注國家將軍。總而言之，我們對收購 National General 感覺非常好。如果你只是從數學開始，數字，它超出了我們的預期和假設，因為你會記得，我們主要購買它是為了通過棄牌來減少我們在獨立代理渠道的開支，基本上讓他們反向收購 Encompass，我們剛好先買了。所以他們 - 這比計劃提前而且數字更大。所以我們對此感覺非常好，這就是我們為這筆交易定價的方式。

You're -- strategically, which is where you're after, we're also getting the benefit of now having a solid platform and independent agent channel, which we did not before. We've been struggling to get a good platform. So they have good technology, good relationships, as you point out, mostly in the nonstandard stuff. And Mario, I think in his comments, mentioned how we're now taking those relationships and that technology platform and we're putting what we call mid-market, which is basically standard auto and homeowners, on that platform, and that's going to give us great growth opportunities because we're using the Allstate expertise in both standard auto and -- not to be underestimated, one bit really is our business model and homeowners. We think that's a great growth opportunity and which is basically icing on the cake relative to the acquisition.

你——從戰略上講，這就是你所追求的，我們現在也受益於擁有一個堅實的平台和獨立的代理渠道，這是我們以前沒有的。我們一直在努力獲得一個好的平台。所以他們有很好的技術，良好的關係，正如你所指出的，主要是在非標準的東西上。我想馬里奧在他的評論中提到了我們現在如何利用這些關係和技術平台，我們正在把我們所謂的中端市場，基本上是標準的汽車和房主，放在那個平台上，這將給我們巨大的增長機會，因為我們在標準汽車和——不可低估的方面都使用了 Allstate 的專業知識，其中一點確實是我們的商業模式和房主。我們認為這是一個很好的增長機會，相對於收購來說，這基本上是錦上添花。

So we feel really good about we're in that channel. It's part of Transformative Growth. It's part of increasing market share and personal profit liability, and we're pleased with the results.

因此，我們對進入該頻道感覺非常好。它是轉型增長的一部分。這是增加市場份額和個人利潤責任的一部分，我們對結果感到滿意。

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

I want to talk about segmentation and policy count. Obviously, the net decline in the auto policy count was quite high this quarter. Do you have some sort of advice or thoughts to think about how much policy count will decline over this repricing period?

我想談談細分和政策計數。顯然，本季度汽車保單數量淨降幅較大。您是否有一些建議或想法來考慮在此重新定價期間將減少多少保單數量？

But two, I also noted that homeowners policy count was flat which suggests in the segmentation, there's different policyholders you're keeping versus different policyholders you're losing. So I thought you might be able to touch on both things.

但是第二，我還注意到房主保單數量持平，這表明在細分中，您保留了不同的保單持有人，而您正在失去不同的保單持有人。所以我認為你可能能夠觸及這兩件事。

Good. Mario, why don't you talk about homeowners and what we're doing there to drive growth?

好的。馬里奧，你為什麼不談談房主以及我們為推動增長所做的工作？

As it relates to auto insurance, we just talked about sort of the Allstate brand, I think, which may be the numbers you're referring to, which is down, versus Andrew's comment about National General, which is up. On the Allstate piece, there's obviously 2 components. One is, are you selling more new business? And then the second is what's happening with retention. And as it relates to new business, we've taken the approach that a prospective rate increase is like a new business penalty. So as you know, when you sell business, you're going to have -- you got expenses as you're getting the customers more to get them right upfront. And then the loss ratio is typically higher for new business than it is for existing business. If you need 10 points of rate on top of what you're currently selling it to, we've factored that into our growth projections on new business and said, well, that's -- at the very least, it's an additional 10 points of new business penalty. The worst is that when you raise your prices by 10%, all the money you spent getting the customer is wasted because they go away and you churn it.

關於汽車保險，我們剛剛談到了某種 Allstate 品牌，我認為，這可能是你所指的數字，它下降了，而安德魯對 National General 的評論上升了。在 Allstate 的文章中，顯然有 2 個組件。一是，您是否正在銷售更多新業務？然後第二個是保留率的變化。由於它與新業務有關，我們採取的方法是，預期的加息就像對新業務的懲罰。因此，正如您所知，當您出售業務時，您將有 - 您會得到費用，因為您要讓客戶更多地預先獲得他們的權利。然後，新業務的損失率通常高於現有業務。如果您需要在目前的銷售目標基礎上再提高 10 個百分點，我們已將其納入我們對新業務的增長預測中，並且說，嗯，至少，它是額外的 10 個百分點新業務處罰。最糟糕的是，當你將價格提高 10% 時，你花在吸引客戶上的所有錢都被浪費了，因為他們離開了，你又流失了。

So we've dialed back new business and advertising not so much because we're trying to manage the P&L but because we're managing the economic growth. And we think needing rate increases and going out and getting a new customer and saying, it's great, you bought it for $1,000. And then 6 months later saying, well, it was really $1,100 is not a good plan. So we've dialed back new business, and you see that really across the board. And Mario showed in some places, even more aggressively, like New York, New Jersey, and California, I've kidded Mario that like, he'll know every new business customer we get in New York if we keep this up personally. So that's basically an economic choice.

因此，我們之所以減少新業務和廣告，並不是因為我們試圖管理損益，而是因為我們正在管理經濟增長。我們認為需要提高利率並走出去並獲得新客戶並說，這太棒了，你以 1,000 美元的價格購買了它。然後 6 個月後說，好吧，這真的是 1,100 美元，這不是一個好計劃。所以我們已經撥回了新業務，你真的看到了這一點。馬里奧在一些地方展示，甚至更積極，比如紐約、新澤西和加利福尼亞，我開玩笑說馬里奧，如果我們親自保持這種狀態，他會認識我們在紐約獲得的每一位新商業客戶。所以這基本上是一種經濟選擇。

On retention, of course, that's the customer's choice and that depends what happens in the marketplace and what other people are doing. Our retention has gone down. We do model that out. It's really very difficult to take those old models though and give yourself any kind of good estimate on the current view because a couple of things have changed. One, these are much bigger increases than those models had in them. So those models are based on 5%, 6%, 7%, not on 10%, 12% or 15% or 40% in Texas. And at the same time, those models don't have the kind of competitive environment you're operating in where everybody else is raising rates at the same time. So we've shut down new business because we think it's economic and there's an increased new business penalty associated with being underpriced, and then we're managing through it.

當然，關於保留，這是客戶的選擇，這取決於市場上發生的事情以及其他人在做什麼。我們的保留率下降了。我們確實對此進行了建模。但是，要採用那些舊模型並給自己對當前視圖做出任何良好的估計確實非常困難，因為一些事情已經發生了變化。第一，這些增長比那些模型中的增長要大得多。所以這些模型是基於德克薩斯州的 5%、6%、7%，而不是 10%、12%、15% 或 40%。同時，這些模型沒有您在其中其他所有人同時提高利率的那種競爭環境。因此，我們關閉了新業務，因為我們認為這是經濟的，並且與定價過低相關的新業務懲罰增加，然後我們正在管理它。

What we want to do, of course, is we're highly focused on improving customer value because if people pay more, you got to do more for them. And so we're working hard on making sure we do insurance reviews, get our agents working.

當然，我們想做的是高度專注於提高客戶價值，因為如果人們支付更多，你就必須為他們做更多。因此，我們正在努力確保我們進行保險審查，讓我們的代理人工作。

Homeowners is another great story that I think we've kind of -- we get so focused on auto, we haven't really told it. It's a great business model. Mario can talk about what we're doing to grow that business.

房主是另一個偉大的故事，我認為我們有點——我們非常專注於汽車，我們還沒有真正講述它。這是一個很棒的商業模式。馬里奧可以談談我們正在做些什麼來發展這項業務。

Yes. Thanks for the question, Josh. And homeowners, again, as I talked about in the prepared remarks, is a business that we continue to feel really good about in terms of where it's positioned from a profitable growth perspective. And what you saw in the quarter is that we actually increased policy count by about 1.4%. Retention actually picked up by a 1/10.

是的。謝謝你的問題，喬希。再次，正如我在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，從盈利增長的角度來看，就其定位而言，我們仍然對房主感到非常滿意。你在本季度看到的是，我們實際上將保單數量增加了約 1.4%。保留實際上增加了 1/10。

And I think there's a couple of things when you kind of unpack what's happening with retention in homeowners because much as Tom talked about, we're having to take prices up in auto, the way we're taking price increases is in a highly segmented and targeted way, and that's helping from a retention perspective on homeowners because those bundled customers tend to be our longest-tenured, most profitable customers.

而且我認為，當你解開房主保留率的問題時，會發生一些事情，因為就像湯姆所說的那樣，我們不得不提高汽車價格，我們採取價格上漲的方式是高度細分的和有針對性的方式，這從保留房主的角度來看是有幫助的，因為那些捆綁的客戶往往是我們使用時間最長、利潤最高的客戶。

We also bundle about 80% of homeowners' policies have a supporting auto line and the retention on a bundled customer, where a homeowner that has an auto policy, is meaningfully higher than a monoline homeowners, and we're continuing to see the benefit of that.

我們還捆綁了大約 80% 的房主保單有配套的汽車保險線路和捆綁客戶的保留率，在這種情況下，擁有汽車保險的房主明顯高於單一保險的房主，我們將繼續看到好處那。

And we've put processes in place both in terms of economic incentives for our agents and sales processes in the call centers on the direct side to incent additional bundling. And we're seeing some nice trends in terms of bundling rates, which is certainly helping homeowner growth through homeowner retention.

我們已經在對代理人的經濟激勵和直接呼叫中心的銷售流程方面製定了流程，以激勵額外的捆綁銷售。我們在捆綁率方面看到了一些不錯的趨勢，這無疑通過保留房主來幫助房主增長。

We're going to continue to look for ways to grow the homeowner business. We think it provides a really compelling risk and return opportunity for us. The results are going to bounce around because there's volatility. This quarter is an example of that with catastrophe losses, but we continue to see our underlying combined ratio and loss ratio improve, and both through leveraging the tactics I talked about for retention and also looking to drive up production, particularly with bundled customers, we think we can continue to grow that line.

我們將繼續尋找發展房主業務的方法。我們認為它為我們提供了一個真正引人注目的風險和回報機會。結果會反彈，因為存在波動。本季度是災難性損失的一個例子，但我們繼續看到我們的基礎綜合成本率和損失率有所改善，並且通過利用我談到的保留策略以及尋求提高產量，特別是捆綁客戶，我們認為我們可以繼續發展這條線。

Are the bundlers having the same problem that they get quoted a rate an entire 6 months later? Or is your pricing such that you can comfortably quote a bundle right now and think that you're going to retain them for 12 months?

捆綁商是否有同樣的問題，他們在整整 6 個月後才得到報價？或者您的定價是否讓您現在可以輕鬆地報價並認為您將保留它們 12 個月？

Yes, we're obviously quoting bundled customers right now. And when you look at the business we are writing, we're seeing really nice improvements in terms of quality and lifetime value, which is indicative of that bundling rate. And so yes, we're quoting it.

是的，我們現在顯然是在為捆綁客戶報價。當您查看我們正在撰寫的業務時，我們會在質量和生命週期價值方面看到非常好的改進，這表明了捆綁率。所以是的，我們正在引用它。

And the other thing you got to remember, and this is true both from a retention and a new business perspective, bundling, it's an easier experience and a more streamlined experience for customers. There's discounts associated with bundling as well that can help offset higher auto rates and incent customers to stay with us.

另一件事你必須記住，從保留和新業務的角度來看，捆綁都是如此，這對客戶來說是一種更輕鬆的體驗和更簡化的體驗。與捆綁相關的折扣也可以幫助抵消更高的汽車費率並激勵客戶留在我們這裡。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

A couple of questions here for you. First one, I'm just curious, I saw your expense ratio is down about 1 point ex ad spend. Where are we in this Transformational Growth as far as the expense ratio reduction? How much can we potentially see here additional going forward?

這裡有幾個問題要問你。第一個，我只是好奇，我看到你的費用比率下降了大約 1 個百分點（不包括廣告支出）。就費用率降低而言，我們在這種轉型增長中處於什麼位置？未來我們還能在這裡看到多少？

And then maybe on the -- as an add on to that, what's kind of a normalized ad spend as a percentage of earned premium, so we can kind of get a view on what our expense ratio should ultimately end up?

然後也許 - 作為補充，什麼樣的標準化廣告支出佔已賺保費的百分比，所以我們可以了解我們的費用比率最終應該是多少？

Yes, Brian, this is Mario. Thanks for the question. Again, expenses, as much as Tom talked earlier about, earned premium and loss ratio, we kind of held serve there, we did see the benefit of a lower expense ratio both in terms of the underwriting expense ratio and the adjusted expense ratio.

是的，布賴恩，這是馬里奧。謝謝你的問題。同樣，正如湯姆之前所說的那樣，費用率是賺取的保費和損失率，我們在那裡服務，我們確實看到了在承保費用率和調整後的費用率方面較低費用率的好處。

Where we're at in the kind of continuum on the adjusted expense ratio, we set a goal to get that adjusted ratio down to about 23 by the end of 2024. And we're making really good progress on that. You saw continued progress on that this quarter. We certainly are being helped by higher earned premium which leveraged our cost. But we're continuing to see reductions in both operating costs and distribution-related costs, which are helping the expense ratio.

我們在調整後費用率的連續統一體中所處的位置，我們設定了一個目標，到 2024 年底將調整後的費用率降至 23 左右。我們在這方面取得了非常好的進展。您在本季度看到了這方面的持續進展。我們當然受益於更高的已賺取保費，這利用了我們的成本。但我們繼續看到運營成本和分銷相關成本的下降，這有助於提高費用率。

And I talked a little bit earlier about the areas we're focused on, whether it's automation, digitization, sourcing and continuing to drive both operating and distribution costs down. We're going to -- those are really going to be the levers we pull to push the expense ratio ultimately to that goal that we set with Transformative Growth. So we're making good progress, feel really good about that.

我早些時候談到了我們關注的領域，無論是自動化、數字化、採購還是繼續降低運營和分銷成本。我們將——這些真的將成為我們推動費用率最終達到我們通過轉型增長設定的目標的槓桿。所以我們正在取得很好的進展，對此感覺非常好。

In terms of the level of marketing spend, certainly, we spent less this quarter on marketing than we did a year ago, and we've pulled that back. I think as Tom said earlier, really from an economic risk and return perspective, it doesn't make a lot of sense for us to invest aggressively in marketing at a time when our prices aren't adequate. But what we will do over time as more rates and -- or, I'm sorry, more states and more markets get to a rate level that we're comfortable with, we're going to surgically lean in. And as one of the components of Transformative Growth, we're going to look to both increase the level and the sophistication of the marketing investment that we make. And that will be commensurate with what we think the opportunity is to grow. So I can't sit here today and give you a specific dollar amount or a target that we're focused on. That's why we gave you the adjusted expense ratio, which excludes marketing costs because we're going to continue to invest in marketing when it makes economic sense and where it makes economic sense for us to lean in.

當然，就營銷支出水平而言，本季度我們在營銷上的支出比一年前少，而且我們已經將其縮減。我認為正如湯姆之前所說，從經濟風險和回報的角度來看，在我們的價格不合適的時候積極投資營銷沒有多大意義。但是隨著時間的推移，我們將做的事情是更多的利率——或者，我很抱歉，更多的州和更多的市場達到了我們滿意的利率水平，我們將像外科手術一樣傾斜。作為其中之一作為轉型增長的組成部分，我們將著眼於提高我們所做的營銷投資的水平和復雜程度。這將與我們認為的增長機會相稱。所以我今天不能坐在這裡給你一個具體的美元數額或我們關注的目標。這就是為什麼我們給你調整後的費用比率，其中不包括營銷成本，因為我們將在具有經濟意義的時候繼續投資於營銷，並且在經濟上對我們有利的地方進行投資。

So let me just double click on the Transformative Growth piece. So the third piece of Transformative Growth is to increase the sophistication and investment in customer acquisition. We think we can and should be able to get new customers cheaper than we do today. There's lots of math we have around that. One of those is telematics. So we were the first out there with continuous telematics. We've been at it for over a decade. We're now taking telematics, and with Arity, we now think we can take telematics into new business, Brian. And actually, not have to have them download our app or put a device in their car to figure out how good a drive they are. We think we can use our sophisticated analytics to price them using telematics ahead of time, which will enable you to better manage your acquisition costs. So lots of work to go there, so plenty of opportunity to grow.

因此，讓我雙擊“變革性增長”部分。因此，轉型增長的第三部分是增加客戶獲取的複雜性和投資。我們認為我們能夠而且應該能夠以比現在更低的價格吸引新客戶。我們有很多數學知識。其中之一是遠程信息處理。因此，我們率先推出了連續遠程信息處理技術。我們已經這樣做了十多年。我們現在正在採用遠程信息處理技術，有了 Arity，我們現在認為我們可以將遠程信息處理技術用於新業務，布賴恩。實際上，不必讓他們下載我們的應用程序或在他們的車上放一個設備來弄清楚他們的駕駛能力有多好。我們認為我們可以使用我們先進的分析提前使用遠程信息處理為它們定價，這將使您能夠更好地管理您的購置成本。去那裡有很多工作要做，所以有很多成長的機會。

Can I just -- one quick follow-up here. If I think of kind of going forward here, when you're looking at putting rate increases through for the remainder of the year, what's your kind of base case with respect to how you're thinking about inflation here? Are you assuming that the current inflationary environment then is persisting through the remainder of 2023 as you're filing for rates?

我可以在這裡快速跟進嗎？如果我想在這裡繼續前進，當你考慮在今年剩餘時間內加息時，關於你如何考慮這裡的通貨膨脹，你的基本情況是什麼？當您申請利率時，您是否假設當前的通貨膨脹環境會持續到 2023 年剩餘時間？

Let me finish and make sure we respect for people's time on that question. So first, when you look at overall inflation, the numbers the Fed and everybody else sees, that's one set of numbers. If you look at the inflation in what we do, it's, of course, dramatically higher. And those are subject to different things. So whether the Fed tightens the economy or doesn't tighten the economy, probably isn't going to do a lot to keep people from having severe accidents, hurting themselves and needing a lot of medical care or then more lawyers getting involved in the case. Nor will it have a huge impact on what the OEs charge on parts. They tend to charge more in parts based on what they're doing to overall profitability and how many new cars are selling. So if we go into a recession, they sell new cars, I don't expect they're going to cut cars' prices. So we think inflation will persist in this business at a higher level than you see from the overall CPI, and that's why we're having to raise prices for our customers.

讓我結束並確保我們尊重人們在這個問題上的時間。所以首先，當你看整體通脹時，美聯儲和其他人看到的數字，這是一組數字。如果你看看我們所做的事情中的通貨膨脹，它當然要高得多。這些受制於不同的事物。因此，無論美聯儲收緊經濟還是不收緊經濟，都可能不會採取很多措施來防止人們發生嚴重事故、傷害自己並需要大量醫療護理或更多律師介入此案.它也不會對原始設備製造商對零件的收費產生巨大影響。他們傾向於根據他們對整體盈利能力所做的事情以及銷售的新車數量對零件收取更多費用。因此，如果我們進入經濟衰退，他們會出售新車，我不認為他們會降低汽車價格。因此，我們認為該行業的通貨膨脹率將持續高於您從總體 CPI 中看到的水平，這就是我們不得不為客戶提高價格的原因。

Thank you all for participating today. Thank you for being generous with your time. We're going a few minutes over. Our priorities, make sure we make money in auto insurance; continue to leverage our superior position in homeowners; start to grow and execute Transformative Growth, whether that's by getting our costs down, rolling out new products, expanding our National General platform; and then we didn't spend any time today on the great stories we have in the lower oval, which is expanding Protection Services.

感謝大家今天的參與。感謝您慷慨解囊。我們要過幾分鐘。我們的首要任務，確保我們在汽車保險方面賺錢；繼續利用我們在房主領域的優勢地位；開始增長並執行轉型增長，無論是通過降低成本、推出新產品、擴展我們的國家通用平台；然後我們今天沒有花任何時間在下橢圓形中的偉大故事上，它正在擴大保護服務。

So a lot of things we're working on hard to create more value for you. Thank you, and we'll see you next quarter.

因此，我們正在努力做很多事情，為您創造更多價值。謝謝，我們下個季度見。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。這確實結束了程序。您現在可以斷開連接。再會。