Allstate Corp (ALL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by.

您好，感謝您的支持。

Welcome to Allstate's third-quarter earnings investor call.

歡迎參加 Allstate 第三季收益投資者電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.

(操作員指示)提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製。

And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Allister Gobin, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹今天節目的主持人、投資者關係主管阿利斯特·戈賓 (Allister Gobin)。

Please go ahead, sir.

先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Jonathan.

謝謝你，喬納森。

Good morning.

早安.

Welcome to Allstate's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Allstate 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

Yesterday, following the close of the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement, and posted related material on our website at allstateinvestors.com. Our management team will provide perspective on our strategy and an update on results. After prepared remarks, we will have a question-and-answer session.

昨天，市場收盤後，我們發布了新聞稿和投資者補充資料，並在我們的網站 allstateinvestors.com 上發布了相關資料。我們的管理團隊將提供關於我們策略的觀點以及最新成果。在準備好的發言後，我們將進行問答環節。

As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will contain non-GAAP measures for which there are reconciliations in the news release and investor supplement and forward-looking statements about Allstate's operations.

如同簡報的第一張投影片所述，我們的討論將包含非 GAAP 指標，這些指標在新聞稿和投資者補充資料以及關於 Allstate 營運的前瞻性聲明中有對帳。

Allstate's results may differ materially from these statements, so please refer to our 10-K for 2023 and other public documents for information on potential risks.

Allstate 的結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，因此請參閱我們 2023 年的 10-K 和其他公開文件以取得潛在風險的資訊。

Our 10-K for 2024 will be published later this month.

我們的 2024 年 10-K 將於本月稍後發布。

And now I'll turn it over to Tom.

現在我將把話題交給湯姆。

Good morning.

早安.

We appreciate you investing time in Allstate.

感謝您在 Allstate 投入的時間。

I'll start with an overview, and then Mario and Jesse will go through the operating results.

我先來做一個概述，然後 Mario 和 Jesse 會介紹一下經營成果。

Let's begin on slide 2.

讓我們從第二張投影片開始。

So as you know, Allstate's strategy has two components: increase personal property-liability market share. And then expand protection provided to customers, which are shown in the (inaudible) on the left-hand side.

如您所知，Allstate 的策略有兩個組成部分：增加個人財產責任險的市場份額。然後擴大為客戶提供的保護，如左側的（聽不清楚）所示。

On the right hand, you can see Allstate's strong performance in 2024 and the topics we're going to cover this morning.

在右側，您可以看到 Allstate 在 2024 年的強勁表現以及我們今天早上要討論的主題。

.

。

Total revenues were $16.5 billion in the fourth quarter, up 11.3% compared to the prior year quarter.

第四季總營收為 165 億美元，比去年同期成長 11.3%。

Allstate generated net income of $1.9 billion in the fourth quarter and $4.6 billion for the full year.

Allstate 第四季淨收入為 19 億美元，全年淨收入為 46 億美元。

Adjusted net income return on equity was 26.8%.

調整後的淨收入股本報酬率為26.8%。

Let me just repeat that 26.8% over the last 12 months.

讓我重複一下，過去 12 個月的成長率為 26.8%。

Successful risk and return management resulted in excellent underwriting and investment results.

成功的風險和回報管理帶來了優異的核保和投資績效。

Transformative growth has strengthened our competitive position.

轉型成長增強了我們的競爭地位。

We'll spend a few minutes on that today.

今天我們將花幾分鐘來討論這個問題。

The sale of our group health and employee voluntary benefits, the companies with greater strategic alignment will generate $3.25 billion of expected proceeds, representing attractive valuation multiples.

出售我們的團體健康和員工自願福利，具有更大戰略一致性的公司將產生 32.5 億美元的預期收益，代表具有吸引力的估值倍數。

Let's move on to slide 3 that shows the operational execution produced excellent financial results in the quarter and for the full year.

我們繼續觀看第 3 張投影片，該幻燈片展示了營運執行在本季度和全年產生了出色的財務業績。

Revenues increased to $64.1 billion in 2024.

2024 年營收將增加至 641 億美元。

Property-Liability earned premiums were up 10.6% in the quarter and 11.2% for the full year.

財產責任險已賺保費本季上漲 10.6%，全年上漲 11.2%。

Net investment income was up 37.9% above the prior year and up almost 25% for the full year.

淨投資收入較上年增長37.9%，全年增長近25%。

Net income was $1.9 billion in the quarter and $4.6 billion for the full year.

本季淨收入為 19 億美元，全年淨收入為 46 億美元。

Adjusted net income, which you know we make a few changes on amortization of intangibles and things which just (inaudible) was $7.67 per share for the fourth quarter.

調整後的淨收入，您知道我們對無形資產攤銷和其他東西做了一些調整，第四季度為每股 7.67 美元（聽不清楚）。

On the lower right, you can see the adjusted net income return on equity was 26.8%.

在右下角，您可以看到調整後的淨收入股本回報率為26.8％。

So 2024 was an excellent year for Allstate, both financially and strategically.

因此，無論從財務角度還是從策略角度來看，2024 年對 Allstate 來說都是極好的一年。

Let's move on to talk strategically about Transformative Growth on slide 4.

讓我們繼續在幻燈片 4 上策略性地談論轉型成長。

We launched this project in December of 2019.

我們在 2019 年 12 月啟動了這個計畫。

So five years have gone by, so it to be a good time to give you a five-year look as to where we are.

五年已經過去了，現在正是回顧過去五年來我們所取得的成就的好時機。

And as you know, there's five components of the plan to increase market share in Property-Liability, two of which we'll cover today.

如您所知，增加財產責任市場份額的計劃包括五個部分，我們今天將介紹其中兩個部分。

Improving customer value is -- requires us to lower our costs and provide differentiated products.

提高客戶價值就要求我們降低成本並提供差異化的產品。

As you can see on the right-hand side, the adjusted expense ratio, which excludes advertising cost, has improved almost 5 points since 2019 by eliminating work outsourcing and digitizing activity using less real estate and lowering distribution expenses.

正如您在右側看到的，透過消除工作外包和數位化活動、減少房地產使用以及降低分銷費用，調整後的費用率（不包括廣告費用）自 2019 年以來已經改善了近 5 個百分點。

Lower costs enable us to offer more competitive prices without impacting margins.

較低的成本使我們能夠提供更具競爭力的價格，而不會影響利潤。

Substantial progress has also been made in introducing products -- new products.

在推出產品－新產品方面也取得了實質進展。

So affordable simple connected auto insurance is now in 31 states and the new homeowners product is in four states.

目前，價格實惠的簡單連網汽車保險已涵蓋 31 個州，而新房屋保險產品已覆蓋 4 個州。

Differentiated Custom 360 middle market standard and preferred auto and homeowner spikes have also been introduced to the independent agent channel in 30 states.

差異化客製化 360 中階市場標準和首選汽車和房主尖峰也已引入 30 個州的獨立代理商管道。

One of the most significant changes is the expansion of customer access to improve growth.

最顯著的變化之一是擴大客戶管道以提高成長。

So this effort has three components: improve Allstate agent productivity, expand direct sales and increase independent agent distribution, all of which have been successful.

因此，這項努力包含三個部分：提高 Allstate 代理商的生產力、擴大直銷和增加獨立代理商的分銷，所有這些努力都取得了成功。

Allstate agency productivity has increased enhancements to direct capabilities, lower pricing and increased advertising is attracting more self-directed customers.

Allstate 代理商的生產力提高了直接能力，較低的價格和增加的廣告吸引了更多的自主導向客戶。

The National General acquisition significantly expanded our presence and capabilities in the independent agent channel.

對 National General 的收購極大地擴展了我們在獨立代理通路的影響力和能力。

As you can see on the right, in 2019, more than three out of four new business policies came from the Allstate agents.

正如您在右側看到的，2019 年，四分之三以上的新商業保單來自 Allstate 代理商。

Last year, new business was 9.7 million items, 76% higher than 2019 with significant contributions from each channel.

去年新業務量達970萬件，較2019年成長76%，各通路均有顯著貢獻。

Policies in force have increased to $237.3 million despite the negative impact of those pandemic price increases.

儘管受到疫情期間價格上漲的負面影響，但有效保單已增至 2.373 億美元。

Transformative Growth has positioned us for personal profit liability market share growth which you'll hear more about from Mario.

變革性成長使我們在個人利潤責任市場份額成長方面處於領先地位，您將從馬裡奧那裡了解更多相關資訊。

So now let me move on to Mario on Property-Liability.

現在讓我來和馬裡奧討論財產責任問題。

Thanks, Tom.

謝謝，湯姆。

Let's turn to slide 5.

讓我們翻到第 5 張投影片。

At the top of the table, you can see fourth quarter Property-Liability underwriting income of $1.8 billion improved by $507 million compared to the prior year quarter.

在表格頂部，您可以看到第四季度的財產責任承保收入為 18 億美元，與去年同期相比增加了 5.07 億美元。

Auto insurance generated $603 million of underwriting income, an improvement of $510 million compared to the prior year quarter and reflecting the successful execution of the profit improvement plan.

汽車保險產生了 6.03 億美元的承保收入，比去年同期增加了 5.1 億美元，反映了利潤改善計畫的成功執行。

Homeowners insurance underwriting income was also strong at $1.1 billion. This was $99 million lower than the prior year quarter due to increased catastrophe losses.

房屋保險核保收入也表現強勁，達到 11 億美元。由於災難損失增加，該數字比去年同期下降了 9,900 萬美元。

On the bottom half of the table, you see the strong margins delivered during the quarter with the total Property-Liability recorded combined ratio of 86.9%, reflecting a 2.6 point improvement compared to the prior year. auto and homeowner combined ratios in the quarter were both better than the targets for those businesses of mid-90s for auto and low 90s for homeowners.

在表格的下半部分，您可以看到本季度實現了強勁的利潤率，總財產責任記錄的綜合比率為 86.9%，比去年同期提高了 2.6 個百分點。本季汽車和房主的綜合比率均優於汽車業務的目標 95% 左右和房主業務的目標 95% 出頭。

Now, we'll expand on the auto insurance margins on slide 6 where you can see how successful execution of the auto profit improvement plan has restored profitability back to target levels.

現在，我們將在第 6 張投影片上擴大汽車保險利潤率，您可以看到汽車利潤改善計畫的成功執行如何將獲利能力恢復到目標水平。

The fourth quarter auto insurance recorded combined ratio of 93.5 was 5.4 points below prior year quarter as average earned premium outpaced loss costs.

第四季汽車保險綜合比率為 93.5，比去年同期低 5.4 個百分點，因為平均已賺保費超過了損失成本。

As a reminder, we regularly reviewed claims severity expectations throughout the year. if the expected severity for the current year changes, we recorded the year-to-date impact in the current quarter, even though a portion of that impact is attributable to previous quarters.

提醒一下，我們全年都會定期審查索賠嚴重程度預期。如果預期當年的嚴重程度發生變化，我們會在本季記錄年初至今的影響，即使部分影響可歸因於前幾季。

For 2022 through 2024, the bars in the graph reflect the updated average severity estimates as of the end of each of those years to remove the volatility related to intra-year severity adjustments.

對於 2022 年至 2024 年，圖表中的長條圖反映了截至每年年底的更新平均嚴重程度估計值，以消除與年內嚴重程度調整相關的波動。

The table at the bottom of the graph shows actual reported combined ratios.

圖表底部的表格顯示了實際報告的綜合比率。

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the full year claim severity estimate went down, so there was a benefit from prior quarters included in the fourth quarter's reported results.

2024 年第四季度，全年索賠嚴重程度估計值下降，因此第四季度的報告結果包含了前幾季的好處。

This benefit was worth 1.5 points in the fourth quarter with the adjusted quarterly combined ratio of 95 shown in the furthest bar to the right.

此項福利在第四季的價值為 1.5 個百分點，最右邊的長條圖顯示的調整後季度綜合比率為 95。

Let's turn to slide 7, where you can see that homeowners insurance produced attractive returns and group policies in force in 2024.

讓我們翻到第 7 張投影片，您可以看到房屋保險產生了有吸引力的回報，並且團體保單在 2024 年生效。

With an industry-leading product, advanced pricing, underwriting and analytics broad distribution capabilities and a comprehensive reinsurance program, we will continue to win in the homeowners business.

憑藉業界領先的產品、先進的定價、承保和分析、廣泛的分銷能力以及全面的再保險計劃，我們將繼續在房主業務中獲勝。

On the left, you can see some of the key factors that contributed to strong results, including increased written premium of 15.3% in the fourth quarter compared to prior year. reflecting higher average gross written premium per policy and policies in force growth of 2.4%.

在左側，您可以看到促成強勁業績的一些關鍵因素，包括第四季度的承保保費較上年同期增加了 15.3%。反映每份保單平均毛承保保費及有效保單成長 2.4%。

For the full year 2024, the homeowners insurance business recorded a combined ratio of 90.1%, in line with our low 90s target while generating total underwriting profit of $1.3 billion.

2024 年全年，房屋保險業務的綜合成本率為 90.1%，符合我們 90% 以下的目標，同時產生 13 億美元的總承保利潤。

The combined ratio for 2024 improved by 16.7 points primarily driven by lower catastrophe losses and strong underlying loss performance.

2024 年的綜合比率改善了 16.7 個百分點，這主要得益於巨災損失的減少和強勁的基礎損失表現。

The chart on the right shows Allstate's strong track record of profitability in homeowners insurance.

右側的圖表顯示了 Allstate 在房屋保險領域強勁的獲利記錄。

Allstate produced a recorded combined ratio of 92% over the past 10 years, which compares favorably to the industry, which experienced an underwriting loss and a combined ratio of 103% over that same time period.

過去 10 年，好事達的綜合成本率為 92%，相較之下，同一時期內，同業的承保損失和綜合成本率分別為 103% 和 104%。

Now, let's go to a homeowner pertinent topic on slide 8 and discuss the California wildfires.

現在，讓我們轉到第 8 張幻燈片上與房主相關的主題，討論加州的野火。

So Allstate responded quickly and empathetically to help customers and communities after the tragic wildfires in Southern California.

因此，在南加州發生悲慘的山火之後，好事達保險公司迅速做出反應，並表現出同情心，為客戶和社區提供幫助。

We deployed mobile claims centers and over 900 team members to assist customers.

我們部署了行動理賠中心和 900 多名團隊成員來協助客戶。

Helping our customers recover from the fires is our principal priority.

幫助我們的客戶從火災中恢復是我們的首要任務。

The financial impact of the wildfires reflect the comprehensive risk and return approach we've taken to managing the homeowners insurance business. Allstate made the decision to reduce California exposure beginning in 2007.

野火造成的財務影響反映了我們管理房屋保險業務所採取的綜合風險和回報方法。 Allstate 決定從 2007 年開始減少對加州的投資。

Our homeowners market share has been reduced by over 50% since that time, as you can see on the chart on the left.

正如您在左側圖表中所看到的，自那時起，我們的房主市場份額已經減少了 50% 以上。

While it is early and we have not been able to adjust many claims, current gross losses are estimated at $2 billion, which includes loss adjustment expenses and an estimated California fair plan assessment.

雖然現在還為時過早，我們還無法調整許多索賠，但目前的總損失估計為 20 億美元，其中包括損失調整費用和估計的加州公平計畫評估。

Reinsurance recoveries of $900 million net of reinstatement premiums would reduce the net loss to $1.1 billion, which will be reflected in first quarter 2025 earnings.

扣除恢復保費後的 9 億美元再保險回收將使淨虧損減少至 11 億美元，這將反映在 2025 年第一季的收益中。

Each additional $100 million in gross losses above our current estimate would result in $10 million of net losses since we are above the reinsurance attachment point of $1 billion. We will continue to monitor the development of this event and provide any updates with our January catastrophe release, which we'll make on February 20.

由於我們已經超過了 10 億美元的再保險附加點，因此，超出我們目前估計的每增加 1 億美元的總損失都會導致 1000 萬美元的淨損失。我們將繼續關注該事件的發展，並在 2 月 20 日發布的一月份災難公告中提供任何更新。

Looking forward, let's discuss policies in force trends in the Property-Liability business on slide 9.

展望未來，讓我們在第 9 頁討論一下財產責任業務中現行的政策趨勢。

The chart to the left shows the composition of property liabilities 37.5 million policies in force.

左側圖表顯示了財產負債的組成：3750萬份有效保單。

Auto is the largest at 24.9 million and homeowners represents approximately 20% of policies in force.

汽車險是最大的險種，達 2,490 萬，房屋保險約佔有效保單的 20%。

As you can see on the right side of the page, auto insurance policies in force declined by 1.4%.

正如您在頁面右側看到的，有效的汽車保險單下降了 1.4%。

The decline in customer retention, particularly in states with large recent rate increases more than offset a nearly 30% increase in new business applications in the quarter. Auto policies in force did increase in 31 states, representing approximately 60% of countrywide written premium on a year-over-year basis.

客戶保留率的下降，特別是在近期利率大幅上調的州，抵消了本季新業務申請近 30% 的成長。 31 個州的有效汽車保險確實有所增加，與去年同期相比，佔全國承保保費的約 60%。

In the middle column on the right, you can see that homeowners insurance policies in force increased by 173,000 or 2.4%, driven by strong retention and a 20.5% increase in new business.

在右側中間一欄中，您可以看到，由於保留率強勁以及新業務增長 20.5%，有效房主保險單增加了 173,000 份，增幅為 2.4%。

We view homeowners as a growth opportunity across all distribution channels.

我們將房主視為所有分銷管道的成長機會。

Our objective in 2025 is to grow property liability policies in force by both improving customer retention, and continuing strong new business sales.

我們 2025 年的目標是透過提高客戶保留率和持續強勁的新業務銷售來增加財產責任保險的有效保單。

We are proactively contacting customers to lower the cost of protection to increase retention.

我們正在主動聯繫客戶，以降低保護成本來提高保留率。

Completing the rollout of affordable, simple and connected auto and homeowners products will also enable growth.

完成價格實惠、簡單且連網的汽車和房主產品的推出也將促進成長。

In addition to improving the customer experience, these products contain our most sophisticated rating plans and telematics offerings, which will deliver profitable growth and position us to compete effectively in a market where more carriers are looking to grow. We will also continue to invest in marketing and leverage broad distribution to grow property liability market share.

除了改善客戶體驗之外，這些產品還包含我們最先進的評級計劃和遠端資訊處理產品，這將帶來獲利成長，並使我們能夠在更多營運商尋求成長的市場中有效競爭。我們也將繼續投資行銷並利用廣泛的分銷來擴大財產責任保險的市場份額。

To provide transparency to investors on our progress on growth, monthly disclosure of policies in force will be provided beginning with our next monthly release in a couple of weeks.

為了讓投資者透明地了解我們的成長進展，從幾週後的下一次月度發布開始，我們將每月披露現行的政策。

Now, I'll turn it over to Jesse.

現在，我將把它交給傑西。

All right.

好的。

Thank you, Mario.

謝謝你，馬裡奧。

slide 10 provides insights on investment performance and asset allocation.

投影片 10 提供了有關投資績效和資產配置的見解。

By taking a proactive approach to portfolio management, Allstate optimizes return per unit of risk across the enterprise.

透過積極主動的投資組合管理方法，Allstate 優化了整個企業的單位風險回報。

This disciplined approach includes comprehensive monitoring of economic conditions, market opportunities, interest rates and credit spreads.

這種嚴謹的方法包括全面監控經濟狀況、市場機會、利率和信用利差。

The chart on the left shows a quarterly trend of net investment income and our fixed income earned yield.

左側的圖表顯示了淨投資收益和固定收益收益率的季度趨勢。

Market-based income of $727 million, which is shown in blue, was $123 million above the prior year quarter, reflecting a higher fixed income yield and increased assets under management.

基於市場的收入為 7.27 億美元（以藍色顯示），比去年同期高出 1.23 億美元，反映了固定收益收益率的提高和管理資產的增​​加。

Fixed income yields shown below the chart has steadily increased as we repositioned into higher-yielding, longer-duration assets, increasing 40 basis points from 4.0% to 4.4% over the past year.

隨著我們重新定位到收益更高、期限更長的資產，圖表下方顯示的固定收益收益率穩步上升，在過去一年中從 4.0% 增加了 40 個基點至 4.4%。

Performance-based income of $167 million shown in black, was $107 million above the prior year quarter, reflecting higher private equity and real estate investment results. As we've mentioned previously, our performance-based portfolio is intended to provide long-term value creation and volatility on these assets from quarter-to-quarter is expected.

業績收入為 1.67 億美元（以黑字顯示），比去年同期高出 1.07 億美元，反映出私募股權和房地產投資績效有所提高。正如我們之前提到的，我們基於績效的投資組合旨在提供長期價值創造，預計這些資產的季度波動性將會很大。

The pie chart on the right shows our asset allocation as of year-end 2024.

右側的圓餅圖顯示了截至 2024 年底的資產配置。

As you can see, our portfolio is largely comprised of high-quality, liquid interest-bearing assets.

如您所見，我們的投資組合主要由高品質、流動性強的生息資產組成。

Public equity holdings were increased by $2.4 billion in the fourth quarter and now comprise $3.3 billion or approximately 5% of the total portfolio.

第四季度，公共股權持有量增加了 24 億美元，目前佔投資組合總額的 33 億美元，約佔 5%。

Fixed income duration was 5.3 years, which is in line with the prior year quarter and up from 4.8 years at the end of last year.

固定收益期限為 5.3 年，與去年同期持平，高於去年年底的 4.8 年。

Let's turn to slide 11 and discuss Protection Plans business, which is a key component of protection services and advances our strategy to expand protection while generating profitable growth.

讓我們轉到第 11 張投影片並討論保護計畫業務，它是保護服務的關鍵組成部分，並推進了我們擴大保護範圍同時實現獲利成長的策略。

Protection Plans offers protection that repairs or replaces a wide range of consumer products, including electronics, computers and tablets, TVs, mobile phones, major appliances, and furniture that are either damaged or broken.

保護計畫提供維修或更換各種消費產品的保護，包括損壞或破損的電子產品、電腦和平板電腦、電視、手機、主要電器和家具。

The products are distributed through strong retail relationships.

產品透過強大的零售關係進行分銷。

Revenues of $528 million in the fourth quarter grew 20.3% to prior year, driven by both domestic and international expansion.

受國內和國際擴張的推動，第四季營收為 5.28 億美元，較上年增長 20.3%。

Profitable growth resulted in adjusted net income for the quarter of $37 million, which is consistent with the prior year quarter and an increase for the full year of $40 million to $157 million, reflecting the benefit of higher revenues and claims cost improvements.

獲利性成長導致本季調整後淨收入達到 3,700 萬美元，與去年同期持平，全年淨收入則增加 4,000 萬美元，達到 1.57 億美元，反映了收入增加和理賠成本改善的好處。

The business has profitably grown to approximately 160 million policies, adding 60 million since 2019 through broadened distribution and protection offerings as well as geographic expansion.

該業務已盈利增長至約 1.6 億份保單，透過擴大分銷和保障範圍以及地域擴張，自 2019 年以來增加了 6,000 萬份。

Additionally, revenue has increased to nearly $2 billion in 2024, reflecting 23.9% in annual compounded growth since 2019 while generating more than $0.75 billion in adjusted net income from 2019 to 2024, this growth offsets expansion investments.

此外，到 2024 年，收入將增至近 20 億美元，自 2019 年以來年複合成長率為 23.9%，同時在 2019 年至 2024 年期間產生超過 7.5 億美元的調整後淨收入，這一增長抵消了擴張投資。

We continue to invest in this driving business as evidenced by the recent acquisition of Kingfisher, which enhances our mobile phone protection capabilities.

我們繼續投資這項驅動業務，最近收購 Kingfisher 就是明證，這增強了我們的手機保護能力。

Now, I would like to transition to slide 12 and discuss how the sale of the employer voluntary benefits and group health businesses create shareholder value.

現在，我想轉到第 12 張投影片，討論一下雇主自願福利和團體健康業務的出售如何創造股東價值。

As a reminder, the decision to pursue the sale of Health and Benefits was based on the assumption that these businesses but have greater strategic value to other companies and selling them would maximize shareholder value.

提醒一下，出售健康和福利業務的決定是基於這樣的假設：這些業務對其他公司具有更大的策略價值，出售它們將實現股東價值最大化。

The transactions (inaudible) support this assumption.

交易（聽不清楚）支持這個假設。

In August, we agreed to sell the employer voluntary benefit from StanCorp Financial for $2 billion.

8 月份，我們同意以 20 億美元的價格出售 StanCorp Financial 的雇主自願福利。

We expect to close that in the first half of 2025.

我們預計在 2025 年上半年完成此目標。

Last week, we marked another major milestone with our agreement to sell the Group Health business to nationwide for $1.25 billion, which we expect to close sometime in 2025.

上週，我們達成協議，以 12.5 億美元的價格將團體健康保險業務出售給全國範圍內的醫院，這標誌著我們又一個重要里程碑，預計該交易將在 2025 年的某個時候完成。

Both of these transactions are economically and financially attractive for our shareholders.

這兩項交易對於我們的股東來說都具有經濟和財務吸引力。

The combined proceeds of these sales are $3.25 billion with an expected book gain of approximately $1 billion.

這些銷售的總收益為 32.5 億美元，預計帳面收益約為 10 億美元。

Using trailing 12 months adjusted net income, the combined estimated impact of the transactions on adjusted net income return on equity would have been a decrease of about 180 basis points due to lower income and higher equity resulting from the gains on sale.

使用過去 12 個月的調整後淨收入，由於銷售收益導致收入減少和權益增加，交易對調整後淨收入股本回報率的綜合估計影響將減少約 180 個基點。

As a reminder, the group health business as part of National General, which we acquired in January of 2021 for $4 billion.

提醒一下，團體健康業務是 National General 的一部分，我們在 2021 年 1 月以 40 億美元收購了該業務。

The proceeds from this divestiture combined with about $1 billion of dividends that we received from National General statutory legal entities represents a return of more than half of the original purchase price, while the size of the National General Property Liability business has approximately doubled.

此次資產剝離的收益加上我們從國家一般法定法人實體獲得的約 10 億美元股息，相當於原始購買價格的一半以上的回報，而國家一般財產責任業務的規模則擴大了約一倍。

Touching briefly on the results of health and benefits for the quarter, premium and contract charges for the segment increased 3.2% or $15 million compared to the prior year quarter. Individual and Group Health business saw strong growth with premiums and contract charges up 8.4% and 9.8%, respectively.

簡要介紹本季的健康和福利業績，該部門的保費和合約費用與去年同期相比增加了 3.2％ 或 1500 萬美元。個人及團體健康保險業務成長強勁，保費和合約費用分別上漲 8.4% 和 9.8%。

This growth was partially offset by a modest decrease in employer voluntary benefits.

雇主自願福利的小幅減少部分抵消了這一增長。

Adjusted net income for the segment of $35 million in the third quarter was $25 million lower than the prior year quarter as increased benefit utilization across all three businesses impacted profitability. Underwriting and rate actions are being taken to quickly address the benefit ratio trends and restore margins to historical levels.

第三季該部門調整後淨收入為 3,500 萬美元，比去年同期低 2,500 萬美元，原因是三大業務部門的福利利用率增加影響了獲利能力。正在採取承保和利率行動，以迅速解決福利比率趨勢並將利潤率恢復到歷史水平。

Options for the Individual Health business, which has adjusted net income of $30 million for 2024 are being evaluated and the business will either be retained or combined with another company.

個人健康業務的選項正在評估中，該業務 2024 年的調整後淨收入為 3000 萬美元，該業務要么保留，要么與其他公司合併。

Let's close on slide 13 by reviewing Allstate's strategy to create shareholder value.

讓我們在第 13 張投影片中回顧 Allstate 創造股東價值的策略，以此作為結束。

As you can see on this page, we create value by delivering attractive financial returns, executing transformative growth to increase property liability market share, expanding protection offerings, completing the sales of employee voluntary benefits and group health businesses.

正如您在本頁所看到的，我們透過提供有吸引力的財務回報、實現變革性成長以增加財產責任市場份額、擴大保護產品範圍、完成員工自願福利和團體健康業務的銷售來創造價值。

So with that context, I'd like to open up the line for your questions.

因此，基於此，我想開始回答大家的提問。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的羅布·考克斯（Rob Cox）。

So first question for you, I had on advertising.

我要問您的第一個問題是關於廣告的。

I think you all had previously said that you were pretty comfortable with the 3Q '24 level of advertising spend.

我想你們之前都說過，你們對 24 年第三季的廣告支出水準非常滿意。

I was hoping you could talk about the decision to ramp it up here in the fourth quarter.

我希望您能談談在第四季度加大力度的決定。

And I'm curious what your measures of ad spend efficiency are telling you in the current environment?

我很好奇，在當前環境下，您的廣告支出效率衡量指標告訴了您什麼？

And how does that compare to history?

和歷史相比怎麼樣？

So Rob, we're comfortable with our advertising spending.

所以 Rob，我們對我們的廣告支出感到滿意。

We adjust it, obviously, by quarter as you point out.

正如您所指出的，我們顯然會按季度進行調整。

And it also depends, which markets we're after.

這也取決於我們瞄準哪個市場。

Sometimes we do some heavy-up tests in particular months to see what the sensitivity is for increased advertising, increased growth I can assure you we have a state-of-the-art analytics on that.

有時我們會在特定的月份進行一些大規模測試，以了解增加廣告和增加成長的敏感度。

We -- it's everything, every kind of lead we bid on leads automatically we -- just to make sure we were good last year.

我們 — — 一切都是那樣，我們對每一種線索都進行自動競標 — — 只是為了確保我們去年的表現良好。

We had a number of outside people come in and look at our analytics and we appear to be at least contemporary, if not industry-leading some of the people you're buying ads from, so they're not going to come tell you stupid.

我們請了一些外部人士來查看我們的分析結果，我們看起來至少是與時俱進的，即使不是行業領先的，也是您向其購買廣告的一些人，所以他們不會來告訴你愚蠢的事情。

But when we look at it in total, we think we're really good at it. and we have all kinds of allowable acquisition cost measures that look at everything from quote-to-close ratios to lifetime value.

但當我們從整體上看時，我們認為我們在這方面確實很擅長。我們有各種允許的收購成本衡量指標​​，涵蓋從報價到成交比率到終身價值等各個方面。

Got it.

知道了。

Secondly, I wanted to ask a question on the comment in the press release about expecting growth in total Property-Liability PIF in 2025.

其次，我想就新聞稿中關於預計 2025 年財產責任 PIF 總額將增長的評論提出一個問題。

We've been thinking that you could certainly grow PIF in both home and auto in 2025.

我們一直認為，到 2025 年，PIF 在家庭和汽車領域肯定能夠成長。

Is there any reason why you would be hesitant to commit to growing in both of the segments?

有什麼原因讓您猶豫是否要致力於在這兩個領域同時發展嗎？

Or am I looking too deeply into that statement?

還是我對這句話思考得太深入了？

Let me make a comment and then turn it over to Mario.

讓我發表一下評論，然後將其交給馬裡奧。

So first, as you know, we don't give forward-looking projections on PIF growth.

首先，如您所知，我們不會給出 PIF 成長的前瞻性預測。

So what we've said to help bring some clarity to it is we're just going to give you the numbers every month like we do with [cats], and you can decide what you want to do with that. We're obviously already growing at home, and we have plans, and we talked a little bit in the press release on where we're growing in auto.

因此，為了幫助您更清楚地了解這一點，我們每個月都會向您提供數字，就像我們對[貓]所做的那樣，然後您可以決定如何處理這些數據。顯然，我們在國內市場已經開始發展，我們也制定了計劃，在新聞稿中我們也談到了我們在汽車領域的發展方向。

But in total, we're not growing in auto.

但總體而言，我們在汽車領域並沒有成長。

So Mario is working on it.

所以馬裡奧正在努力。

Mario, do you want to talk about what you got going?

馬裡奧，你想談談你正在做的事情嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks for the question, Rob.

謝謝你的提問，羅布。

Look, I'd say, look, the objective of transformative growth to grow policies in force and gain market share in the Property-Liability business.

我想說，轉型成長的目標是增加有效保單並在財產責任業務中獲得市場份額。

That's our goal.

這就是我們的目標。

That's our objective.

這就是我們的目標。

Having said that, as Tom mentioned, we're currently growing the homeowners business.

話雖如此，正如湯姆所提到的，我們目前正在發展房主業務。

We think there's a real opportunity in the market.

我們認為市場上確實存在著機會。

We're going to continue to lean in on that one, a, because we've got really strong capabilities; b, there's disruption in the market that we can take advantage of, and we like the prospects of continuing to grow homeowners.

我們將繼續依靠這一點，因為我們擁有非常強大的能力； b，市場出現了混亂，我們可以利用這種混亂，而且我們看好房主數量繼續增長的前景。

On the auto side, we think despite the fact that policies are declining, we're really well positioned to lean into growth going forward for a variety of reasons.

在汽車方面，我們認為，儘管政策正在減少，但由於各種原因，我們仍然處於有利地位，並有望實現未來的成長。

I think the first is you've seen the new business momentum build over the course of 2024 in part due to your first question, our advertising investment that we've increased throughout the year.

我認為首先，您已經看到新的業務勢頭在 2024 年期間不斷增強，部分原因是您的第一個問題，即我們全年增加的廣告投資。

But we've also been doing things like unwinding underwriting restrictions and looking to accelerate growth across all distribution channels.

但我們也一直在做一些事情，例如取消承保限制並尋求加速所有分銷管道的成長。

We're going to continue to fully leverage our broad distribution capabilities alongside that marketing investment, continue to roll out the new affordable, simple and connected product.

我們將繼續充分利用我們廣泛的分銷能力和行銷投資，繼續推出新的價格實惠、簡單且互聯的產品。

We are currently in 31 states.

我們目前業務遍及 31 個州。

We'll continue to expand that over the course of this year that has our most sophisticated pricing, our most contemporary telematics offerings included in that.

今年，我們將繼續擴大這一範圍，其中包括我們最完善的定價和最現代化的遠端資訊處理產品。

We're going to continue to leverage capabilities on the Allstate side, into National General.

我們將繼續利用 Allstate 方面的能力，將其引入 National General。

Just talked about the growth that we've seen in National General.

剛剛談到了我們在 National General 所看到的成長。

We're going to leverage middle market capabilities in Allstate to grow National General in a part of the market that they have less penetration.

我們將利用 Allstate 的中端市場能力來幫助 National General 在滲透率較低的部分市場中發展業務。

And we're also going to use National General's capabilities in the nonstandard auto space and leverage the Allstate brand to begin to accelerate growth in that space.

我們還將利用 National General 在非標準汽車領域的能力，並利用 Allstate 品牌來加速該領域的成長。

So we've got a lot of things that we've both been doing and expect to do in 2025 to accelerate growth.

因此，我們已經做了很多事情，並希望在 2025 年做更多事情來加速成長。

And really, that was the genesis of the statement.

事實上，這正是該聲明的起源。

Yes.

是的。

One last point I should have brought up is retention.

我應該提出的最後一點是保留。

Yes, everything I talked about was on the new business side.

是的，我談論的一切都是關於新業務方面的。

We've seen the adverse impact of retention as we've been having to raise prices over the last couple of years to improve margins.

我們已經看到了保留帶來的不利影響，因為過去幾年我們不得不提高價格以提高利潤率。

The good news is auto margins are back where we would want them to be in the mid-90s range.

好消息是汽車利潤率已回到我們希望的95%左右的水平。

The downside of that is retention has taken a hit.

其缺點是保留率受到了打擊。

Some of that will come back as we are less active in taking prices going forward because of where margins sit.

由於利潤率的原因，我們未來在調整價格方面將不再那麼積極，部分降幅將會回落。

But additionally, and more importantly, we're going to proactively lean into reaching out to customers, helping them save money by making sure they're getting all the appropriate discounts.

但此外，更重要的是，我們將主動接觸客戶，確保他們獲得所有適當的折扣，幫助他們省錢。

They've got the right coverage levels that meet their specific needs.

他們已獲得滿足其特定需求的適當覆蓋水準。

And the objective there is to improve affordability, improve customer satisfaction and retention, and that will be additive to our growth trends.

其目標是提高可負擔性、提高客戶滿意度和保留率，這將有助於我們的成長趨勢。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯、雷蒙德詹姆斯。

So for my first question, piggyback on the last answer there, Mario.

因此，對於我的第一個問題，馬裡奧，請回答上一個問題。

And you said on slide 9 here, for the auto policies, you said that you're proactively contacting the existing customers, you mentioned that in your answer.

您在投影片 9 上說過，對於汽車保險，您正在主動聯繫現有客戶，您在回答中提到了這一點。

Can you give us an updated perspective on how you think your pricing is on a competitive positioning basis versus your peer group?

您能否向我們提供最新的觀點，說明您認為與同業相比，您的定價在競爭定位上如何？

And as you shift gears and proactively contact existing customers.

當您轉變方向並主動聯繫現有客戶。

Does that mean that there's going to be some sort of corresponding adjustment in agent compensation that's going to give more weighting to retention versus just flat-out new sales?

這是否意味著代理商的薪酬將會有相應的調整，更重視保留客戶而不是單純的新銷售？

Greg, let me add the pricing (inaudible), I'm going to let Mario do that one.

格雷格，讓我加一下價格（聽不清楚），我要讓馬裡奧來做這個。

But I would make one point on the retention part.

但我想就保留部分提出一點。

I think having branded agents who work exclusively with you is the best channel to be able to do what we're talking about.

我認為擁有專門為您合作的品牌代理商是實現我們所談論目標的最佳管道。

So again, we've raised some people's prices 30%, 40%.

因此，我們再次將一些人的價格提高了30%、40%。

We had to do it quickly because we were losing money.

我們必須迅速採取行動，因為我們正在虧損。

Now, we can go back in and help them get the absolute right coverage that could be deductibles.

現在，我們可以回去幫助他們獲得絕對正確的保險範圍，包括免賠額。

It could be coverage limits.

這可能是覆蓋範圍的限制。

It could be using telematics, it could be paying differently, so there's lots of different ways we can help them do that.

它可以使用遠端資訊處理，可以使用不同的付款方式，所以我們可以透過很多不同的方式幫助他們做到這一點。

And that would be very difficult to do through an independent agent channel.

而透過獨立代理管道做到這一點會非常困難。

It would be harder to do with a direct channel because you don't have the skills and capabilities built in your call centers to necessarily do that.

透過直接管道來實現這一點會比較困難，因為您的呼叫中心不具備實現這一點所需的技能和能力。

Our agents at the Allstate agents are used to doing this all the time.

我們 Allstate 保險代理公司的代理商一直習慣這麼做。

They certainly did it when we were raising rates.

當我們提高利率時他們確實這樣做了。

But now Mario has a new program going on, which is a safe program, which has specific goals and numbers.

但現在馬裡奧正在進行一個新計劃，這是一個安全的計劃，它有具體的目標和數字。

We are not planning on changing agent comp.

我們不打算更換代理商。

Mario, do you want to talk about competitive positioning.

馬裡奧，你想談談競爭定位嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Greg.

謝謝，格雷格。

The definitive position, I'd say a couple of things.

關於明確的立場，我想說幾件事。

First, when you look at the ramp-up in new business over the course of the year, and we made a comment that we're growing in 31 states currently.

首先，當您查看一年來新業務的成長時，我們會發現我們目前在 31 個州正在成長。

I think that's indicative of having competitive prices and being able to fully leverage the marketing investment that we're making.

我認為這表明我們具有競爭力的價格，並且能夠充分利用我們所做的行銷投資。

It is a complicated question.

這是一個複雜的問題。

It's hard to answer it on a national basis because obviously, we compete market by market, state by state, and we're constantly looking at our competitive position and making tweaks to the tiers within our pricing plan to adjust prices when we think it's appropriate to adjust prices.

從全國範圍來回答這個問題很難，因為很明顯，我們在一個市場、一個州內進行競爭，我們不斷關注我們的競爭地位，並對我們的定價計劃中的層級進行調整，在我們認為合適的時候調整價格。

The good news is we've achieved target margins.

好消息是我們已經實現了目標利潤。

So we're comfortable with where our rate level is currently.

因此我們對目前的利率水準感到滿意。

And we would expect that we would need to take less price going forward.

我們預計未來我們需要降低價格。

But when you look at our new business trends, we feel good about competitive prices.

但當你看看我們的新業務趨勢時，我們對有競爭力的價格感到滿意。

We've taken a lot of costs out of the system over the past several years, as Tom mentioned earlier, which is helpful. We're going to continue to pull that lever going forward.

正如湯姆之前提到的，過去幾年我們從系統中削減了大量成本，這很有幫助。我們將繼續發揮這一槓桿的作用。

But we think we're priced competitively, and we have the broad distribution capabilities to continue to grow in the auto space.

但我們認為我們的價格具有競爭力，並且我們擁有廣泛的分銷能力，可以繼續在汽車領域發展。

The only other point I'd make on your second question about the proactively contacting customers and agency compensation.

關於您的第二個問題，我唯一想說的另一點是關於主動聯繫客戶和代理商補償。

A meaningful portion of agent compensation currently relates to renewal.

目前，代理商報酬的很大一部分與續約有關。

So they've got a strong economic vested interest in retaining as many customers as they possibly can.

因此，他們有強烈的經濟既得利益來盡可能留住客戶。

And as Tom mentioned, they've been doing that.

正如湯姆所提到的，他們一直都這樣做。

This is a way through the SAVE program where we're going to really scale it and do it much more broadly to help drive retention proactively versus just relying on less instability in the market from rate increases.

這是透過 SAVE 計劃的一種方式，我們將真正擴大該計劃的規模，並更廣泛地實施該計劃，以主動幫助推動保留，而不是僅僅依靠利率上漲帶來的市場不穩定。

Tom, and as my follow-up question, Tom, in your opening comments, when you were going through the information on slide 2, you emphasize the ROE of 26.8%, which I believe is one of the best results I've seen from your company in recent history.

湯姆，作為我的後續問題，湯姆，在你的開場白中，當你瀏覽幻燈片 2 上的信息時，你強調了 26.8% 的 ROE，我相信這是我近年來從貴公司看到的最好的結果之一。

Can you provide some view of how you are thinking about the ROE going forward?

您能否提供一些關於未來 ROE 的看法？

And maybe what the board -- how the board is viewing it?

也許董事會如何看待此事？

I guess the reason why I'm asking is you've disposed of some underperforming assets over the last decade.

我猜我問這個問題的原因是您在過去十年中處理了一些表現不佳的資產。

And it feels like there's just a natural migration that the ROE objectives for the organization can be moving up, certainly this result for last year sort of puts an explanation point on that.

感覺這只是一個自然的遷移，即組織的 ROE 目標可以上升，當然去年的結果對此作了解釋。

Good question, Greg, and with longitudinal perspective on it.

格雷格，你這個問題問得好，而且是從一個縱向的角度來看這個問題。

So as you remember -- I don't remember how many years ago it was at one time we put out a target of 14% to 17%, but I would say that was a different company and a different time.

所以正如你記得的——我不記得我們曾經在多少年前提出過 14% 到 17% 的目標，但我想說那是在不同的公司和不同的時代。

It was a different company in that we had a life business.

這是一家與眾不同的公司，因為我們有壽險業務。

It was a different time and that interest rates were a lot lower.

那是一個不同的時代，利率要低得多。

People were thinking it was low

人們認為它很低

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

Since then, of course, as you point out, we've made a bunch of changes.

當然，正如您所指出的，從那時起我們做出了許多改變。

We sold the life business.

我們出售了人壽保險業務。

We bought back a substantial amount of stock, which takes some of our investment earnings down.

我們回購了大量股票，這導致我們的部分投資收益下降。

Our premiums are up substantially, not just because we've grown total policies but also because there's just higher cost per policy, which I think the market hasn't really factored in that includes requires more capital.

我們的保費大幅上漲，不僅是因為我們的保單總數增加了，還因為每份保單的成本更高，我認為市場還沒有真正考慮到需要更多資本這一因素。

So when you look all through it, we feel really good about where we're at.

所以當你看完這一切，我們對我們所處的位置感到非常滿意。

When we put that 14% to 17% out there, it was really because investors were not sure given the time and given the nature of the company, what our returns would be and would they be acceptable. (inaudible) it was a cap.

當我們提出 14% 到 17% 的回報率時，實際上是因為投資者不確定，考慮到時間和公司性質，我們的回報會是多少，以及是否可以接受。 （聽不清楚）那是一頂帽子。

And so obviously, now we're doing much better than that.

顯然，現在我們的表現比那時好多了。

I would say the most important thing for us to do now is to increase growth. So increasing returns won't drive that much more shareholder value.

我想說我們現在最重要的事情就是促進成長。因此，增加回報不會帶來更多的股東價值。

What will drive more shareholder value is growth.

推動股東價值提升的因素是成長。

And we've obviously grown and are growing a bunch of our other businesses.

顯然，我們已經發展壯大了，並且還在發展我們的其他業務。

So whether that's our homeowners business, whether that's we're growing premiums, which people kind of get all focused in that auto PIF and auto PIF is important, and we're going to grow auto PIF.

因此，無論是我們的房主業務，還是我們不斷增長的保費，人們都專注於汽車 PIF，而汽車 PIF 非常重要，我們將發展汽車 PIF。

But when you look at just growth in premiums, we're up double digit -- single low teens percent, depending on which measure you want to look at last year.

但是，如果只看保費成長，我們的保費成長了兩位數，也就是百分之十幾，這取決於你想看去年的哪個指標。

So we feel good about overall growth.

因此，我們對整體成長感到滿意。

We think -- and the key to unlocking the value we've already created through growth is to get auto unit growth up.

我們認為——釋放我們已經透過成長創造的價值的關鍵是提高汽車單位成長率。

Michael Zaremski, BMO.

邁克爾·扎雷姆斯基，BMO。

My first question is on the expense ratio and kudos to the kind of lowering it over time and meeting your goal.

我的第一個問題是關於費用率，您對隨著時間的推移降低費用率並實現目標表示讚賞。

Curious, I think in the past, Tom, recent past, you've said that you have plans to improve it even further.

好奇的是，湯姆，我想在過去，最近你曾說過你有計劃進一步改進它。

And maybe that's the expense ratio ex ad expense.

這也許就是扣除廣告費用後的費用率。

If that's the case, are you able to kind of elaborate on what the building blocks are going forward to continue the improvement.

如果是這樣，您能否詳細說明一下繼續改進的基礎是什麼。

So the answer is yes.

所以答案是肯定的。

We always expect to keep reducing expenses, and we think we have an opportunity to even lower them further from where they are.

我們始終希望繼續削減開支，我們認為我們有機會進一步降低開支。

We're not done.

我們還沒完成。

I would say, maybe we're 60% of the way done.

我想說，我們可能已經完成了 60％。

And -- but I wouldn't like to take that and multiply that by some percentage change.

而且——但我不想拿這個數字乘以某個百分比變化。

I guess part of that percentage change just to be completely transparent, is because premiums have gone up faster than general inflation.

我想，為了完全透明起見，這個百分比變化的部分原因是保費上漲的速度快於整體通膨率。

So you kind of can't count that as much.

因此你不能把這個算得太重。

So we are constantly working on it.

因此我們一直在努力。

I think the wares we're after will be digitization, leveraging the new technology platform we've built.

我認為，我們追求的產品將是數位化，利用我們已經建構的新技術平台。

The affordable simple connected is all designed around doing that increasing our marketing effectiveness.

這款價格實惠、結構簡單的連結產品的設計都是為了提高我們的行銷效率。

So even though we carve marketing out from that number, that doesn't mean like we're just going to spend wild on marketing.

因此，即使我們從這個數字中抽出行銷費用，但這並不意味著我們會在行銷上投入巨額資金。

It needs to have the same level of precision to it that everything else does. And we also still need to lower distribution costs. The distribution costs are still higher than we would like them to be.

它需要具有與其他事物相同的精度水平。而且我們仍然需要降低分銷成本。分銷成本仍然高於我們的預期。

So we have work to do there as well.

所以我們在那裡也要做工作。

Great.

偉大的。

And my final follow-up is just more high level on the devastating tragedy in California.

我最後想跟進的是有關加州毀滅性悲劇的更高層次報道。

I know it's kind of still a fluid situation, but I think a few of your competitors have expressed that they might need to retrench even more in California given the payback -- the potential payback on the losses are going to be many, many, many years.

我知道現在的情況仍然不穩定，但我認為你們的一些競爭對手已經表示，考慮到損失的可能償還時間將很多很多年，他們可能需要在加州進一步削減開支。

Curious, do you think this could cause Allstate to also rethink its ambitions of growing or just overall growth in California might turn a different direction.

好奇的是，您是否認為這會導致 Allstate 重新考慮其成長目標，或者只是加州的整體成長可能會轉向不同的方向。

Well, every state is different.

嗯，每個州都不一樣。

We don't have any growth aspirations in homeowners in California at this point.

目前，我們還沒有對加州房主數量成長抱有任何期望。

And we haven't since 2007, we had a small window in there where we thought we had some arrangements where it would make sense for us to grow that didn't turn out to be the case.

自 2007 年以來，我們還沒有實現這一目標。

So we had turned off the spicket for new customers.

因此，我們關閉了新顧客的水龍頭。

We didn't go to now renew pet what we just said, we're not going to add new customers starting in 2007.

我們現在不去續約我們剛剛說過的協議，從 2007 年開始我們不會增加新客戶。

Then in about 2017, '18, I think I we said we think we can take on a few new customers if we can get this, that didn't turn out to be true.

然後大約在 2017 年、2018 年，我想我們說過，如果我們能實現這個目標，我們就可以接納一些新客戶，但事實並非如此。

So we stopped that then in 2022.

所以我們在 2022 年停止了這項措施。

But we've been at this for a long time.

但我們已經致力於此很久了。

And so we don't have any growth aspirations in California right now.

因此我們目前對加州沒有任何成長願望。

That said, we're really good at homeowners.

話雖如此，我們確實很擅長當房主。

We make more than half of the industry's profits.

我們創造了該行業一半以上的利潤。

We've got a good business model.

我們有一個很好的商業模式。

We think it's a great growth opportunity.

我們認為這是一個很好的成長機會。

And it doesn't have to be the way it is in California.

但情況並不一定非得像加州那樣。

So Texas has just as many types and dollar amount of losses as California does, yet the homeowners market works there.

因此，德州的損失類型和金額與加州一樣多，但那裡的房主市場仍然運作良好。

And so we believe that there's a way to make that work.

因此我們相信有辦法實現這一目標。

We'd like to work with a state to make a work because people want to insure their homes, they need to insure their homes.

我們希望與政府合作進行這項工作，因為人們希望為自己的房屋投保，他們需要為自己的房屋投保。

And we just need to make sure it's done on a basis that is fair to consumers, but also gives our shareholders an appropriate return for the risk.

我們只需要確保這一切都是在對消費者公平的基礎上完成的，同時也讓我們的股東獲得適當的風險回報。

So for example, we don't want to have to do things like in California, Mario talked about the numbers.

舉個例子，我們不想做像加州那樣的事情，馬裡奧談到了數字。

We have a substantial amount of reinsurance recoveries.

我們有大量的再保險追償。

We're a cost-plus business.

我們是一家成本加成企業。

We did not recoup the cost for that reinsurance that we just now got back to lower losses, which means that we need to have a structure.

我們還沒有收回那筆再保險的成本，現在我們才剛剛恢復以降低損失，這意味著我們需要有一個結構。

The department has talked about that.

該部門已經討論過此事。

They're open to that.

他們對此持開放態度。

So I would say that these things they happen over a long time, and it takes a while for them to get fixed.

所以我想說這些事情會持續很長時間，需要一段時間才能解決。

So I don't think anything is going to change in the next -- it's not like in 12 months, everybody's going be rushing into California right homeowners.

因此，我認為未來不會有任何變化——並不是像 12 個月後每個人都會湧入加州購買房產。

It just doesn't happen that fast.

它只是不會發生得那麼快。

Hristian Getsov, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的克里斯蒂安蓋索夫 (Hristian Getsov)。

My first question is on retention.

我的第一個問題是關於保留。

I didn't see any retention numbers in the press release or supplements.

我在新聞稿或補充資料中沒有看到任何保留數字。

I was wondering if you could provide that.

我想知道您是否可以提供該服務。

And then would you say the majority of the headwinds on retention just from like I know you guys called out insurance migration and then the New York, California, New Jersey rate hikes.

然後，您是否會說保留方面面臨的大部分阻力僅來自於您們所呼籲的保險遷移，以及紐約、加利福尼亞、新澤西的利率上調。

Are those -- is the majority of that headwind dissipated by now? Or do you expect some further headwinds kind of in the first half?

這些——現在大部分逆風都消散了嗎？或者您預計上半年還會遇到一些阻力嗎？

I'll make a couple of comments, and Jesse may want to comment.

我會發表幾點評論，傑西可能也想發表評論。

So First, we pay a lot of attention to attention is more granularity than you just even mentioned, whether it's his book of business, the state, this risk of this, whatever, there's price changes were like we're all over retention.

首先，我們非常關注比您剛才提到的更細緻的關注，無論是他的業務帳簿、狀態、這種風險，還是其他什麼，還有價格變化，就像我們都保留的那樣。

Just made the decision that rather than give you the components which are complicated, and we spend a bunch of time help them and you spend a bunch of time trying to figure out retention on this much and how much policy -- just why don't I just give you the numbers.

只是做出了決定，而不是給你複雜的組件，我們花大量時間來幫助他們，你花大量時間來試圖弄清楚保留這麼多以及保留多少政策——為什麼我不直接給你數字呢？

I'll just give you the PIF numbers every month, you'll know what the numbers are.

我每個月都會給你 PIF 數字，你就會知道這些數字是多少。

You don't have to get caught up into what your projections on new business, what's your projection on retention for insurance policy. So our goal in was to increase transparency and give you more information you can use to make your investment in recommendation decisions rather than less in doing this.

您不必糾結於新業務的預測，對保單保留的預測。因此，我們的目標是提高透明度並為您提供更多信息，讓您可以用於投資推薦決策，而不是減少這些信息。

So that's what we've set out to do.

這就是我們打算做的事情。

Maybe just or Mario, you guys want to talk about the retention and how you're feeling about it and other ways to measure it.

也許只是或馬裡奧，你們想談談保留以及你對此的感受以及其他衡量方法。

Maybe I'll just touch on the round out the disclosure and then Mario, you can talk about your thoughts.

也許我只是想談談披露的細節，然後馬裡奧，你可以談談你的想法。

I think the other thing to keep in mind is, as Tom mentioned, we gave you eight component.

我認為要記住的另一件事是，正如湯姆所提到的，我們給了你八個組成部分。

We didn't even give you all of the components.

我們甚至沒有給你所有的組件。

We believe by giving you PIF on a monthly basis, you'll have more transparency.

我們相信，透過每月向您提供 PIF，您將獲得更高的透明度。

Recall, what we gave you was Allstate brand or Allstate brand retention, rather. So it was a piece of the puzzle, and we spent a lot of time explaining movements between brands, which we wanted to move away from.

回想一下，我們給您的是 Allstate 品牌或 Allstate 品牌保留。所以這是一個難題，我們花了很多時間解釋品牌之間的動向，但我們想擺脫這個局面。

So I really believe that what we're giving you now on a monthly basis will be much clearer and actually reduce a lot of the complication that came from our disclosure.

因此，我真的相信，我們現在每月提供的資訊將更加清晰，並且實際上可以減少因我們的披露而產生的許多複雜性。

And as Tom said, puts you in a better position to understand new business and retention trends and frankly, what the total policies in force trend is.

正如湯姆所說，這讓您更了解新業務和保留趨勢，坦白說，整體有效政策趨勢是什麼。

So it was definitely a move to increase transparency by taking away and really completing that move away from brand to line of business and distribution channel.

因此，這無疑是一種提高透明度的舉措，透過取消並真正完成從品牌到業務線和分銷管道的轉變。

Yes.

是的。

The only thing I'd add on retention, I think it's important to take a step back and look at what we've really been saying over the last several years, which our principal focus I would say, heading into 2024 was to improve auto margins.

關於保留，我唯一要補充的是，我認為重要的是退一步看看我們過去幾年真正在說什麼，我想說，進入 2024 年，我們的主要重點是提高汽車利潤率。

I think we were pretty clear on that.

我想我們對此已經非常清楚了。

That was our principal priority.

這是我們的首要任務。

We had to take prices up a lot to do that, over 40% when you look over the past several years.

為了實現這一目標，我們不得不大幅提高價格，過去幾年漲幅已超過 40%。

The good news is margins are back to where we want them to be and where they need to be.

好消息是利潤率已經回到了我們希望的和需要的水平。

And from a new business perspective, as that kind of played out, you've seen us kind of lean back into the market and really accelerate new business growth over the course of last year.

從新業務的角度來看，隨著這種情況的發生，您會看到我們重新回歸市場並在去年真正加速了新業務的成長。

The downside to that approach and that strategy is with retention, as you mentioned, which has stabilized in a number of states, as we've cycled through what we needed to do to improve profitability.

正如您所說，這種方法和策略的缺點在於保留率，隨著我們已經完成了提高盈利能力所需要做的措施，保留率在多個州已經趨於穩定。

But as we talked about before, there were a handful of states that were a little later to the game in terms of getting margins back to where they needed to be.

但正如我們之前談到的，有少數州在將利潤率恢復到應有的水平方面稍晚了一些。

We talked extensively about California, New York, New Jersey.

我們廣泛討論了加利福尼亞州、紐約州、新澤西州。

The good news is we've been making good progress in those three states.

好消息是我們在這三個州取得了良好的進展。

We've been making it by implementing some pretty meaningful rate increases.

我們透過實施一些相當有意義的升息來實現這一目標。

That is having a drag on retention as we cycle our way through that, we should see that stabilize.

當我們循環往復時，這會對保留產生拖累，我們應該會看到這種情況趨於穩定。

I will say though, New York and New Jersey, we've still got some work to do.

不過我要說的是，紐約和新澤西，我們還有一些工作要做。

We're margins are better, but they're not where we'd like them to be.

我們的利潤率有所提高，但還沒有達到我們所希望的水平。

We're going to continue to pursue rate in those states.

我們將繼續在這些州推行利率。

But we believe we can overcome that because we've got a lot of growth opportunity in the rest of the country.

但我們相信我們能夠克服這一困難，因為我們在全國其他地區也有很多成長機會。

Got you.

明白了。

And going back to the California wild losses, I know you provided a $2 billion gross estimate, you provided some sensitivity.

回顧加州野生動植物損失，我知道您給出了 20 億美元的總估計數，並且給出了一些敏感度。

But what are you assuming in terms of the industry losses so we could like flex that sensitivity up or down depending on how the losses developed?

但是，您對行業損失有何假設，以便我們可以根據損失的發展情況調高或調低這種敏感度？

Yes.

是的。

Look, this is Mario.

看，這是馬裡奧。

The way I'd answer that question is obviously, there's a lot of moving parts in our estimate.

我回答這個問題的方式顯然是，我們的估計中有很多變動的部分。

We know our data with a lot of specificity because we have that.

因為我們有這些數據，所以我們非常具體地了解我們的數據。

We've made assumptions around a fair plan assessment, just given the magnitude of the losses we've seen and also when you look at the fair plan surplus level as of the end of the third quarter, the reinsurance and their co-participation in that, we think it's pretty likely that they're going to kind of exceed their surplus levels and there will likely be an assessment.

我們已經對公平計劃評估做出了假設，考慮到我們所看到的損失規模，以及當您查看截至第三季度末的公平計劃盈餘水平時，再保險及其共同參與，我們認為他們很可能會超過他們的盈餘水平，並且可能會進行評估。

We've got that in there.

我們已經把它放在那裡了。

And we -- our number includes a view of what the industry loss is.

我們的數字包括了對行業損失的看法。

I really don't want to kind of disclose what our view on that is.

我真的不想透露我們對此的看法。

But there's -- I will say, we've made certain assumptions to come up with our number, both in terms of ourselves and the fair plan.

但是——我要說的是，我們在得出這個數字時做出了某些假設，包括我們自己和公平計劃方面的假設。

We'll keep looking at those because it's a pretty fluid process, and we'll update it as we get more information if we need to update.

我們會繼續關注這些，因為這是一個非常流暢的過程，如果需要更新，我們會在獲得更多資訊後進行更新。

So here's if you want a sensitivity.

如果您想要敏感度的話，這就是。

For every $100 million, it's $10 million.

每 1 億美元就是 1000 萬美元。

So for every 5% we're off in total, it costs us $10 million.

因此，總損失每 5%，我們就會損失 1000 萬美元。

So if we're off by 50%, so it's another $1 billion, it cost us $100 million, right? So I don't think you need to worry about sensitivity on the gross loss.

所以如果我們偏離了 50%，那就是另外 10 億美元，花了我們 1 億美元，對嗎？所以我認為你不需要擔心總損失的敏感度。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。

I had a question first on just the auto business.

我首先想問一個關於汽車業務的問題。

You mentioned PIF turning positive in 31 states, I think, -- and I'm assuming what's unique about those states is just the fact that you're not raising prices as much and advertising more.

您提到 PIF 在 31 個州轉為正值，我想，這些州的獨特之處在於您沒有大幅提高價格，而是加大了廣告宣傳。

So if that is true, then could you talk about the remaining straits that you're not growing in should that begin happen throughout the year gradually?

那麼，如果這是真的，那麼您能否談談您尚未成長的剩餘困境，這些困境是否應該在全年逐漸發生？

Or is there more of a cliff event at some point later in the year when you will lap those comps and you're not going to be raising prices just to sort of be able to assess when those stock states will begin to show better growth?

或者在今年稍後的某個時候會出現更多的懸崖事件，那時您將超越這些競爭對手，而您不會提高價格，只是為了評估這些股票狀態何時會開始顯示出更好的增長？

I'll let Mario talk about the pace, but I don't think you're going to give you an answer by (inaudible) I got it is it's more complicated, though, than just those two factors, right?

我會讓馬裡奧來談論速度，但我不認為你會透過（聽不清楚）來給你一個答案，我明白了，它比僅僅這兩個因素更複雜，對吧？

So it's not just are we not taking price and how much are we advertising is what's everybody else doing?

因此，問題不只是我們不收取價格，而且我們做了多少廣告，其他人也在做同樣的廣告？

What kind of coverage are we offering, where are we with our ASC rollout, where are we with our custom 3C.

我們提供什麼樣的覆蓋範圍，我們的 ASC 推出情況如何，我們的客製化 3C 情況如何。

So it's a really complicated machine that Mario is running.

所以馬裡奧操作的機器真的很複雜。

But the goal is -- sometimes attribution helps explain why you are where you're on.

但目標是——有時歸因有助於解釋為什麼你處於目前的位置。

Sometimes the attribution leads to excuses.

有時歸因會導致藉口。

And we're not interested in excuses.

我們對於藉口不感興趣。

We're interested in results, which is growth.

我們感興趣的是結果，也就是成長。

So Mario can talk about how he thinking about that maybe you want to talk about both the impact of retention and the impact of new business over the course of the year, but we can't give you obviously a per quarter PIF number.

因此，馬裡奧可以談談他是如何考慮的，也許你想談談全年保留的影響和新業務的影響，但我們顯然無法給你每個季度的 PIF 數字。

Just watch for Jesses' monthly number.

只需關注傑西的月度數字。

Yes, Jimmy, thanks for the question.

是的，吉米，謝謝你的提問。

Look, lower where I'd say is like we want to grow in every state where it makes economic sense for us to grow and where we believe we can grow profitably.

瞧，我想說的是，我們希望在每個州都實現成長，在這些州，我們的成長具有經濟意義，而且我們相信我們能夠實現獲利成長。

That happens to be 31 states now.

現在剛好有 31 個州。

We think the opportunity is beyond that level.

我們認為機會超越了這個水準。

And as Tom mentioned, there's a lot of components that factor into our ability to grow price as part of it competitive position and where our price sits relative to the competition, the growth investments we're making, our risk appetite, there's a lot of factors that play into that.

正如湯姆所提到的，有很多因素影響著我們提高價格的能力，這是我們競爭地位的一部分，我們的價格相對於競爭對手而言處於什麼位置，我們進行的成長投資，我們的風險偏好，有很多因素都會影響到這些。

Retention is a key component of our ability to grow, right?

保留是我們成長能力的關鍵因素，對嗎？

So what you saw in total this year was we had really good new business trends.

所以整體來說，今年我們有非常好的新業務趨勢。

And in the quarter, they kind of peaked in 2024 at almost 30%.

在本季度，這一比例在 2024 年達到峰值，接近 30%。

Yet despite that, our units declined year-over-year because of the drag of retention.

然而儘管如此，由於留任的拖累，我們的銷量仍較去年同期下降。

So we're focused through the SAVE program on not just waiting for retention to bounce back because of less rate disruption in the system, we're going to proactively do things to work with customers, help them save money, improve affordability and drive retention up.

因此，透過 SAVE 計劃，我們不只是專注於等待留存率因係統利率波動較小而回升，我們還將積極主動地與客戶合作，幫助他們省錢、提高負擔能力並提高留存率。

We think doing that well alongside all the other things I mentioned earlier, new product rollout, new technology, distribution and continued investments in marketing and all the things that helped us drive new business volumes, that's the key that will drive growth broadly, and that's the plan we're executing on.

我們認為，做好這一點以及我之前提到的所有其他事情，新產品的推出、新技術、分銷和持續的營銷投資以及所有幫助我們推動新業務量的因素，是推動廣泛增長的關鍵，這也是我們正在執行的計劃。

And then maybe just following up on capital.

然後可能只是跟進資本。

Like the business is obviously profitable now.

就像這項業務現在顯然是盈利的。

I think you'll make money even with the California fires in 1Q, and then you've got the money coming in through the sales of the Benefits and Health business.

我認為，即使第一季加州發生火災，你仍然會賺錢，而且你還可以透過銷售福利和健康業務來賺錢。

So how should we think -- and I'm assuming capital is not a constraint for growth given how much money you're going to get from the sales.

那麼我們應該如何思考——考慮到你能從銷售中獲得多少錢，我假設資本不是成長的限制因素。

But how should we think about capital deployment between growth, M&A and share buybacks? And is it unreasonable to assume that you wouldn't be in the market buying back stock at some point, assuming results come in as expected over the course of this year?

但我們該如何考慮成長、併購和股票回購之間的資本配置呢？而且，假設今年的業績如預期般順利，那麼你不會在某個時候在市場上回購股票，這種假設不合理嗎？

Jimmy, we consider proactive capital management to be a significant strength of Allstate and it's added a tremendous amount of shareholder value.

吉米，我們認為積極的資本管理是 Allstate 的一大優勢，它增加了巨大的股東價值。

So -- and you're right, share repurchases are obviously one of those and we've used that extensively.

所以 — — 您說得對，股票回購顯然是其中之一，而且我們已經廣泛使用了它。

But I would encourage you to hold us accountable as you started to mention on really a broader basis, right?

但當您開始提到更廣泛的基礎時，我會鼓勵您讓我們承擔責任，對嗎？

So there's organic growth, there's risk and return on economic capital.

因此存在有機成長、風險以及經濟資本的回報。

There's inorganic growth. And then there's capital structure, which includes the share repurchases.

存在無機增長。然後是資本結構，其中包括股票回購。

And so let me just go through each of those.

所以讓我逐一介紹一下這些。

First, organic growth is a two fer and based on the returns we're getting in our business today, it generates absolute dollar growth in earnings.

首先，有機成長是雙重的，根據我們目前業務所獲得的回報，它可以產生絕對的美元收益成長。

Secondly, with that higher growth rate and we should have a higher PE because if you look at our price earnings ratio versus any other insurer and you look at our top line growth, the average premium growth is getting discounted and it's basically all hung on auto Unipro.

其次，有了更高的成長率，我們的本益比也應該更高，因為如果你將我們的本益比與其他保險公司進行比較，再看看我們的營收成長，就會發現平均保費成長已經被低估了，而且基本上都依賴於汽車保險 Unipro。

You can say whether that's right or wrong, but we think that the unlock and deploying capital to grow the Property-Liability business, both in units and premiums is -- will drive growth.

你可以說這是對是錯，但我們認為，解鎖和部署資本來發展財產責任業務（包括單位和保費）都將推動成長。

So we think that's really important.

所以我們認為這非常重要。

And we've talked a lot about that this morning, so I don't want to -- we don't need to go back to that.

我們今天早上已經就此進行了大量討論，所以我不想——我們不需要再重複這一話題。

If you look at risk and return on economic capital, we have a really sophisticated way and Jesse has talked about this a lot in the last couple of years of how we manage capital and associated risk and return on that.

如果你看看經濟資本的風險和回報，我們有一個非常複雜的方法，傑西在過去幾年裡多次談論我們如何管理資本及相關的風險和回報。

That helps us do things like leverage our investment expertise and be proactive in managing our investments.

這有助於我們利用我們的投資專業知識並積極主動地管理我們的投資。

And that capability generates good returns.

這種能力可以帶來豐厚的回報。

And I think it needs to be valued in its own right.

我認為它本身就需要被重視。

But for example, the duration calls we made used additional economic capital. We knew that.

但是例如，我們進行的期限調用使用了額外的經濟資本。我們知道這一點。

We decided on it.

我們決定這麼做。

It was part of the enterprise decision, and it clearly generated good returns.

這是企業決策的一部分，而且顯然產生了良好的回報。

Same thing is true with the reinsurance in California. We look at all those things economically.

加州的再保險也存在同樣的情況。我們從經濟角度看待所有這些事情。

I think acquisitions also need to be assessed on the actual return on capital.

我認為收購也需要根據實際資本報酬率來評估。

So National General (inaudible) standpoint.

因此，國家普遍（聽不清楚）的立場。

When you look at National General, it's more than double its size on apples-to-apples basis from when we bought it three years ago.

如果你看一下 National General，你會發現與我們三年前收購時相比，它的規模已經擴大了一倍以上。

SquareTrade is substantially bigger as maybe 10 times bigger and making $150 million a year when we paid $1.4 billion. When you look at what was the net cost of National General and SquareTrade?

SquareTrade 規模大得多，可能比我們支付的 14 億美元大 10 倍，每年獲利 1.5 億美元。您看一下 National General 和 SquareTrade 的淨成本是多少？

When you take a look at it, both of them, the net cost is about half of what we paid.

當你看它們時，它們的淨成本大約是我們支付金額的一半。

So as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we paid $4 billion for National General and when you add up the recently announced Group Health transaction and the dividends, we've been able to take out of the statutory entities, which are about $1 billion.

因此，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們為國家通用保險公司支付了 40 億美元，如果加上最近宣布的團體健康保險交易和股息，我們就可以從法定實體中拿出約 10 億美元。

We've reduced that purchase price of about $2.25 billion.

我們已將購買價格降低約 22.5 億美元。

So to $1.75 billion or less than

因此達到 17.5 億美元或更少

(inaudible). The same would be true if you look at SquareTrade and the $1.4 billion acquisition since owning it, we've taken half that back in dividends based on earnings while also, and this is important, investing in growth, doing acquisitions.

（聽不清楚）。如果你看看 SquareTrade 和我們自擁有它以來價值 14 億美元的收購案，你會發現情況也是如此，我們根據收益收回了一半的股息，同時，投資於成長和進行收購，這一點很重要。

So we've gotten about half of it back and still invested in growth on SquareTrade.

因此，我們收回了大約一半的資金，並且仍在投資 SquareTrade 的成長。

And then, of course, share repurchases is an also thing, but you have to really look at how you manage your capital stack better.

當然，股票回購也是一件事情，但你必須真正考慮如何更好地管理你的資本堆疊。

So for example, we issued perpetual preferred stock.

例如，我們發行了永久優先股。

I don't remember how many years ago, we issued $2 billion of stock.

我不記得多少年前我們發行了價值 20 億美元的股票。

We bought back $2 billion in common, swapped fixed equity cost unless all the remaining upside with our common equity, the preferred just has a -- with current cost on the preferred.

我們回購了價值 20 億美元的普通股，用固定股權成本交換，除非所有剩餘的上行空間都與我們普通股相同，優先股只需具有 - 優先股的當前成本。

We have three different issuances, Tom.

我們有三種不同的發行，湯姆。

So our lowest is about 4.75%, and then we have a tranche that was more recently issued at 11.375%.

因此，我們的最低利率約為 4.75%，然後我們最近發行的一批利率為 11.375%。

So we've got a range, but most of it, the largest issuance actually is a 5.1% fixed for life preferred.

所以我們有一個範圍，但其中大部分，最大的發行量實際上是 5.1% 的終身固定優先股。

So obviously, -- and the math is not exactly right because you got GAAP capital a guess.

很明顯，--而且計算結果並不完全正確，因為你對 GAAP 資本進行了猜測。

But if you look at our returns on equity, just actual market equity, it's substantially above that.

但如果你看看我們的股本報酬率，也就是實際的市場股本報酬率，它就遠高於這個數字。

So that's a good trade.

所以這是一筆很好的交易。

The -- we also look -- obviously, look at dividends.

顯然，我們也會看股利。

Share repurchases, we've done a lot of. And so just won't just go through the numbers of what we've done on share repurchase over the past.

我們做了很多股票回購。因此，我們不會只回顧過去我們在股票回購方面所做的數字。

We have done a lot of time.

我們已經做了很多時間。

So I took a look back and went all the way back to when Allstate went public.

因此我回顧了一下，一直回溯到 Allstate 上市的時候。

Since going call, we've repurchased about $41.5 billion of our stock.

自回購以來，我們已回購了約 415 億美元的股票。

And that represents about 83% of the outstanding shares.

這佔已發行股份的約 83%。

If you bring that time frame in a little bit, over the last 10 years, the number is closer to $17.5 billion and about half of the outstanding shares over the last 10 years, bringing in again five-year period, $7.8 billion of repurchases, about 25% of our outstanding shares.

如果你把這個時間範圍稍微拉長一點，在過去的 10 年裡，這個數字接近 175 億美元，約佔過去 10 年流通股的一半，再加之五年期間的回購金額為 78 億美元，約占我們流通股的 25%。

And in all cases, at an average cost that's very attractive.

並且在所有情況下，平均成本都非常有吸引力。

We even go through and look at the returns.

我們甚至會仔細查看回報。

In all cases, over any period, whether it's 30 years or five years, the return is significantly above our cost of capital.

在所有情況下，在任何時期，無論是 30 年還是 5 年，回報都遠遠高於我們的資本成本。

So we've had really good returns.

因此我們獲得了非常好的回報。

And to your point, Tom, buying back 83% since going published public to show our commitment to repurchase.

正如您所說，湯姆，自公開上市以來，我們已回購了 83%，以表明我們對回購的承諾。

Yes.

是的。

So I mean, we've got plenty of things we do.

所以我的意思是，我們有很多事情要做。

And I would just -- like don't -- like yes, share repurchases are important.

我只是——不喜歡——是的，股票回購很重要。

I know it's a number of analysts wrote that up over the evening of like when are you going to be back.

我知道很多分析師晚上都寫了這個問題，例如你什麼時候回來。

I'd like -- you should hold us accountable for managing our capital to drive shareholder value.

我希望——你應該讓我們對管理資本以推動股東價值負責。

And if that means growing faster and using our capital grow faster, that holds accountable for that.

如果這意味著更快的成長並利用我們的資本更快地成長，那就要對此負責。

If we have extra capital, we don't hold on to it, and we buy back stock because we think when you look at our value relative to our growth potential, the size of our business, our PE, we still think it's cheap.

如果我們有多餘的資本，我們不會持有它，我們會回購股票，因為我們認為當你看到我們的價值相對於我們的成長潛力，我們的業務規模，我們的本益比時，我們仍然認為它很便宜。

It's still better to get those questions and questions about adequacy of capital, I guess.

我認為最好還是提出這些問題以及有關資本充足率的問題。

So we'll see.

我們拭目以待。

Yes.

是的。

Those were thoughts, sure.

確實，這些都是想法。

Bob Hong, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Bob Hong。

I'm going to stay away from capital.

我要遠離資本。

So the first question is on auto. -- an investor astutely pointed out that on your first quarter 2024 slide, you talked about 64% of your total premiums are profitable.

所以第一個問題是關於汽車的。 ——一位投資者敏銳地指出，在您的 2024 年第一季幻燈片中，您提到總保費的 64% 是盈利的。

So fast forward to today, then we're talking about 60% of that premium is now growing.

快進到今天，我們談論的是其中 60% 的保費正在增長。

Is it fair to kind of make some type of causal correlation between the time you achieve profitability and the time that you start to grow the business?

在你實現盈利的時間和你開始發展業務的時間之間建立某種因果關係是否公平？

In other words, is it fair to say that six to nine months from now, essentially California, New York, and New Jersey, they are only states you're unable to grow and everything else should be growing rather than the 60% of total premiums growing, probably call it 80% or 90% of it should be.

換句話說，是否可以這樣說，從現在起 6 到 9 個月內，基本上加州、紐約州和新澤西州是唯一無法成長的州，而其他所有州都應該成長，而不是總保費成長 60%，可能應該成長 80% 或 90%。

Is that a fair way to think about this?

這樣思考問題公平嗎？

I think the construct is right.

我認為這個構造是正確的。

I don't know if I would automatically extrapolate that into the future.

我不知道我是否會自動推斷這一點到未來。

I mean, it is true when we were losing money, we shut down advertising, shut down growth intentionally because we said there's really no sense going to get a bunch of new customers that we're going to have to raise their price by 15% relatively quickly and maybe then lose them.

我的意思是，當我們虧損的時候，我們確實會停止廣告，故意停止成長，因為我們說，獲得一大批新客戶真的沒有任何意義，我們必須相對較快地將他們的價格提高 15%，然後可能會失去他們。

So what's the point is to spend the money and it doesn't make any sense getting a new customer to lose a little bunch of money on, and you know you're going to lose money on.

所以，花錢的意義何在？

So that was true, and that's what we did.

這是事實，我們也確實這麼做了。

We also know that by driving that and going aggressively that it was going to hurt retention.

我們也知道，如果推動並積極推動這項舉措，將會損害保留率。

And so now we're about -- so it is -- there are pieces you roll in.

現在我們要 — — 情況就是這樣 — — 有一些棋子你要擲進來。

I don't think you could automatically go to, say, like do an analysis of two lines on a graph going up and they would follow each.

我認為你不能自動地去做，比如說，對圖表上上升的兩條線進行分析，它們會分別跟隨。

Each state is different, each physician is different.

每個州都不同，每個醫生也不同。

If Mario was to get adequate prices in New York tomorrow, we have a great agency plant there.

如果馬裡奧明天能在紐約獲得合適的價格，我們在那裡有一個很棒的代理工廠。

We've got pretty -- we've got huge share down in the New York area.

我們在紐約地區佔有相當大的份額。

And we could really leverage it to grow fast.

我們確實可以利用它來快速發展。

When that will happen, who knows?

誰知道那什麼時候會發生？

So I think you should just hold us accountable for growing auto units, I keep coming back to auto units is the unlock.

因此，我認為你應該讓我們對汽車單位的成長負責，我一直認為汽車單位是關鍵。

A lot everything else that grow in like let's.

很多其他的東西都像我們一樣成長。

It is an important part of our business, but we've got a higher premiums and reserve balances are up, the investment balances are up.

這是我們業務的重要組成部分，但我們的保費更高，儲備餘額也增加了，投資餘額也增加了。

That's all driving increased income.

這一切都在推動收入增加。

So protection plants is not getting out of the park.

因此保護植物不會離開公園。

So we've got lots of growth opportunities we are focused on the unlock of auto unit growth.

因此，我們有很多成長機會，我們專注於釋放汽車單位的成長潛力。

Got it.

知道了。

No, that's helpful.

不，這很有幫助。

If I can just have a follow-up on that.

如果我可以對此進行跟進。

I don't know if you addressed this, so apologies if you did.

我不知道您是否解決了這個問題，如果解決了的話，我深表歉意。

The question is really around adverse selection, right?

問題其實在於逆向選擇，對嗎？

As we go into 2025, more and more auto carriers are profitable and more auto carriers are talking about growth, should we expect your current level of combined ratio to hold for auto as you had it into an environment where everyone is looking for growth?

隨著我們進入 2025 年，越來越多的汽車運輸公司實現盈利，越來越多的汽車運輸公司正在談論增長，我們是否應該預期您目前的綜合成本率水平能夠保持汽車運輸業的水平，就像您處於一個人人都在尋求增長的環境中一樣？

Like how do you feel about the broader competitive environment as a whole?

例如，您對整個更廣泛的競爭環境有何感受？

Well, you're talking -- the auto market has obviously been competitive and both progressive GEICO, State Farm, the big carriers that we compete with all the time. have been out in the market and competitive this year.

嗯，您說的沒錯——汽車市場顯然競爭非常激烈，而且我們一直在與進步的 GEICO、State Farm 和大型保險公司競爭。今年已經進入市場並開始競爭。

So people are advertising -- last year in 2024.

所以人們在做廣告——去年是 2024 年。

So it's not like it wasn't competitive, and it's suddenly turning into competition.

所以，這並不是說它以前沒有競爭力，而是突然變成了競爭力。

We think we have the capabilities to compete and grow.

我們認為我們有能力競爭和成長。

I would say that's a different market in homeowners where most people are backing out.

我想說，這是一個不同的房主市場，大多數人都退出了。

There is a secular trend there. where we have an opportunity to grow.

那裡有一個長期趨勢。我們有成長的機會。

And as we look at capital, one of the things we'd like to do is get a higher valuation on our homeowners' growth.

當我們考慮資本時，我們想做的事情之一就是對房主的成長進行更高的估值。

So when you look at our homeowner business, and I said, geez, if you have a business that's growing revenues in the mid-teens, it's picking up not huge market share, but it has got real unit growth. It's an industry-leading model.

因此，當你看看我們的房主業務時，我說，天哪，如果你的企業收入以十幾歲的幅度增長，那麼它獲得的市場份額並不是很大，但它實現了真正的單位增長。這是一個業界領先的模式。

It's earned money, good money, 11 out of 12 years. and it has high returns on capital, you probably wouldn't put it at the kind of PE that we have for our overall enterprise.

這是賺來的錢，好錢，12 年中有 11 年都是這樣。而且它具有很高的資本回報率，你可能不會把它放在我們整個企業的本益比水平上。

And I suspect that if you actually looked at analysts, they might even give it a lower PE than our total.

而且我懷疑，如果你真的看看分析師，他們甚至可能給出比我們的整體本益比更低的本益比。

So we need to figure out how to have that fully recognized in our valuation.

因此，我們需要弄清楚如何在估值中充分認識到這一點。

And it might mean doing something differently in reinsurance and lowering the volatility of that line.

這可能意味著在再保險方面採取不同的做法，並降低該險種的波動性。

But just know that, our goal is to increase shareholder value, (inaudible) maybe close because I think we're at time.

但要知道，我們的目標是增加股東價值，（聽不清楚）可能接近了，因為我認為我們已經到了時候了。

Our goal is to increase shareholder value, whether that's buy shares back, grow manage our capital structure differently, figure out how to compete differently, do more advertising.

我們的目標是增加股東價值，無論是回購股票、以不同的方式管理我們的資本結構、找出如何以不同的方式競爭、做更多的廣告。

We're all about driving growth for shareholders.

我們致力於推動股東成長。

We think we have the tools and capabilities to do that.

我們認為我們擁有實現這一目標的工具和能力。

And we have a track record that shows we know how to get it done.

而且我們的過往記錄顯示我們知道如何完成這個目標。

So thank you all.

謝謝大家。

We'll see you next quarter.

我們將於下個季度見面。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program.

該計劃確實結束了。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

Good day.

再會。