Allstate Corp (ALL) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Allstate's fourth-quarter earnings investor call.(Operator Instructions)

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加Allstate第四季財報投資者電話會議。 （操作說明）

As a reminder, please be aware that this call is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Allister Gobin, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

再次提醒，本次通話將會被錄音。現在，我謹向大家介紹今天節目的主持人，投資人關係主管 Allister Gobin。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Allstate's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings call. Yesterday, following the close of the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement and posted related materials on our website at allstateinvestors.com. Today, our management team will discuss how Allstate is creating shareholder value, then we will open up the line for your questions.

各位早安。歡迎參加Allstate 2025年第四季財報電話會議。昨天收盤後，我們發布了新聞稿和投資者補充資料，並將相關資料上傳至我們的網站allstateinvestors.com。今天，我們的管理團隊將探討Allstate如何創造股東價值，之後我們將開放問答環節，解答您的問題。

As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will include non-GAAP measures for which there are reconciliations provided in the news release and investor supplement. We will also make forward-looking statements about Allstate's operations. Actual results may differ materially from those statements, so please refer to our 2024 10-K and other public filings for more information on potential risks. Our 10-K for 2025 will be published later this month. And now I'll turn it over to Tom.

如簡報第一張投影片所述，我們的討論將包括非GAAP指標，新聞稿和投資者補充文件中提供了這些指標的調節表。我們也將對Allstate的營運情況做出前瞻性聲明。實際結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，因此請參閱我們的 2024 年 10-K 報告和其他公開文件，以了解更多有關潛在風險的資訊。我們2025年的10-K報告將於本月稍後發布。現在我把麥克風交給湯姆。

Good morning. Thank you for investing time in Allstate. Today, we're going to cover financial results and how Allstate is successfully addressing insurance affordability. So let's start on slide 2. Allstate’s strategy has two components as shown on the left, increase personal property liability market share and expand protection provided to customers. On the right, are performance highlights.

早安.感謝您抽空了解Allstate。今天，我們將介紹財務表現以及好事達保險公司如何成功解決保險費用問題。那麼，讓我們從第二張投影片開始。Allstate 的策略包含兩個組成部分（如左圖所示）：提高個人財產責任市場份額並擴大為客戶提供的保障範圍。右側是精彩片段。

Allstate improved auto and homeowners insurance affordability for millions of customers in 2025. Results benefited from the transformative growth initiatives, which generated strong financial results and increasing growth of the Property-Liability policies in force. Shareholders were provided $2.2 billion of cash returns last year. The dividend has been increased and a $4 billion share repurchase program will be initiated.

到 2025 年，Allstate 提高了數百萬客戶的汽車和房屋保險負擔能力。由於變革性成長舉措，公司業績取得了顯著成效，這些舉措帶來了強勁的財務業績，並推動了現有財產責任保險保單的持續成長。去年，股東獲得了 22 億美元的現金回報。公司提高了股息，並將啟動一項40億美元的股票回購計畫。

Slide 3 is an overview of Allstate's financial results. Total revenues increased to $17.3 billion for the fourth quarter and $67.7 billion for the year. Net income applicable to common shareholders was $3.8 billion for the quarter, and $10.2 billion for the year. Adjusted net income was $3.8 billion or $14.31 per common share for the fourth quarter and $9.3 billion for 2025, $34.83 per share.

第 3 張投影片概述了 Allstate 的財務表現。第四季總營收增至 173 億美元，全年總收入增至 677 億美元。本季歸屬於普通股股東的淨利為 38 億美元，全年淨利為 102 億美元。第四季調整後淨收入為 38 億美元，即每股普通股 14.31 美元；2025 年調整後淨收入為 93 億美元，即每股 34.83 美元。

The lower table provides a reconciliation of net income for the fourth quarter to the prior year quarter. In 2024, we earned $1.9 billion. The three primary drivers of increased income were better underwriting losses, lower catastrophes and the benefit of reserve releases from prior years and adjustments within 2025.

下表提供了第四季與上年同期淨利的調節表。2024年，我們賺了19億美元。收入增加的三大主要驅動因素是承保損失減少、巨災減少以及從往年釋放的準備金和 2025 年的調整帶來的好處。

Net income for the quarter was $3.8 billion. Now let's discuss our success in improving affordability, while maintaining margins before going through the details of this performance with Mario, Jess and John. Slide 4 discusses the levers to improve insurance, auto insurance affordability at the industry level and then we'll go through Allstate's actions.

本季淨利為38億美元。現在，讓我們先來討論一下我們在提高產品可負擔性的同時保持利潤率方面取得的成功，然後再與馬裡奧、傑西和約翰詳細探討這一業績。第 4 張投影片討論了改善保險業和汽車保險可負擔性的槓桿，然後我們將介紹 Allstate 的行動。

In summary, improving affordability will require a focus on costs and not process. Let's go through the math. The pie chart on the left shows the composition of auto insurance industry costs from 2020 to 2025. Physical damage costs are to repair and replace vehicles and represent the largest share cost at 43%. Injury costs were 34% of premiums and expenses are 23%.

總之，提高可負擔性需要專注於成本而不是流程。我們來算算。左邊的圓餅圖顯示了 2020 年至 2025 年汽車保險產業成本的組成。車輛損壞費用包括車輛的維修和更換費用，佔總費用的 43%，是最大的費用組成部分。傷殘費用佔保費的 34%，支出佔 23%。

Over the last five years, industry underwriting income was close to zero, to improve affordability then costs must be lowered. Some costs move with inflation, Other cost reductions will require legislation or regulatory changes. So physical damage costs have increased 47% over the past five years. Now a portion of this was because used car prices rose 43% during the pandemic, which drove up the cost to replace and repair vehicles.

過去五年，產業承保收入接近零，要提高可負擔性，就必須降低成本。有些成本會隨通貨膨脹而變化，而其他成本的降低則需要立法或監管方面的改變。因此，在過去五年裡，財產損失賠償成本增加了 47%。部分原因是疫情期間二手車價格上漲了 43%，導致車輛更換和維修成本上升。

That inflation has started to reverse, which will improve affordability since insurance is a cost-plus product. The second largest driver of cost is bodily injury claims, which are when our customers get sued by people that are injured in auto accident. These costs have increased 52% over the last five years due to more attorney involvement and higher settlements.

通貨膨脹已經開始逆轉，這將提高保險的可負擔性，因為保險是一種成本加成產品。第二大成本驅動因素是人身傷害索賠，即我們的客戶因車禍受傷而被他人起訴。由於律師介入增加和賠償金額提高，這些成本在過去五年中增加了 52%。

Tort reform has reduced litigation in Florida, which has enabled the top five insurance companies in the state to request rate reductions of 5.9% in 2025. Consumers will benefit in states like New York and others work to reduce what I would call fender bender litigation. So you barely touch somebody and they sue you and then also work to control exorbitant damage costs.

侵權法改革減少了佛羅裡達州的訴訟，使得該州排名前五的保險公司得以申請在 2025 年將費率降低 5.9%。紐約州等州的消費者將從中受益，其他州則致力於減少我所說的輕微交通事故訴訟。所以你只是輕輕碰了一下別人，他們就起訴你，然後還要努力控制巨額賠償費用。

For example, in New York, the average bodily injury settlement is twice that of Florida and the countrywide average. Louisiana and Georgia recently addressed litigation, which we are hopeful will reduce the cost of suits against our customers. Uninsured and underinsured motors costs have increased 72%, which means responsible drivers are now carrying more of the load.

例如，在紐約，人身傷害賠償的平均金額是佛羅裡達州和全國平均值的兩倍。路易斯安那州和喬治亞州最近都對訴訟問題進行了處理，我們希望這能降低針對我們客戶的訴訟成本。無保險和保險不足車輛的事故成本增加了 72%，這意味著負責任的駕駛現在承擔了更多的責任。

This can be mitigated by enforcement laws requiring insurance coverage and raising mandatory coverage limits. Changing laws or regulations so that insurance companies lose money at the underwriting level will not create a stable and affordable set of choices for consumers. Allstate is successfully addressing the issue of insurance affordability with customers, as shown on slide 5.

可以透過強制保險和提高強制性保險限額等執法法律來緩解這種情況。改變法律或法規，使保險公司在承保層面虧損，並不能為消費者創造穩定且負擔得起的選擇。如投影片 5 所示，Allstate 正在成功地解決客戶的保險負擔能力問題。

Customer value has been improved by using renewal processes for auto and homeowners insurance to optimize coverages and discounts. The show Allstate customers value every day or SAFE program, reduced 7.8 million customers' premiums by 17% on average by adjusting coverage and other changes in 2025.

透過優化汽車和房屋保險的續保流程，提高保險範圍和折扣，進而提升客戶價值。Allstate 的客戶重視每一天或 SAFE 計劃，透過調整保險範圍和其他變化，在 2025 年平均降低了 780 萬客戶的保費 17%。

We continue to roll out the new auto and homeowners affordable simple and connected insurance products. Auto insurance rates for the ASC price were reduced in 32 states with an average reduction of 9%. We also expanded direct purchase options, which have lower prices. Jess is going to go through the impact of this on this year's earnings, which was substantial in terms of the top line, but we managed margins well.

我們將持續推出價格實惠、簡單便捷且互聯互通的新型汽車和房屋保險產品。32 個州的 ASC 價格汽車保險費率降低，平均降低 9%。我們還擴大了直接購買選項，這些選項的價格更低。Jess 將分析此事對今年收益的影響，雖然營收受到的影響很大，但我們很好地控制了利潤率。

Operational excellence also supports affordability while maintaining margins. The transformative growth initiative has lowered expenses. Improving claims processes also enabled us to offer lower prices. So Allstate's strategy is to deliver strong results, while successfully adapting to a changing external environment. Mario will now provide an update on the transformative growth initiative to increase Property-Liability market share.

卓越的營運能力也有助於在保持利潤率的同時降低成本。這項變革性成長計畫降低了成本。理賠流程的改進也使我們能夠提供更低的價格。因此，Allstate 的策略是在成功適應不斷變化的外部環境的同時，取得優異的表現。接下來，馬裡奧將介紹旨在提高財產責任險市場份額的變革性成長計畫的最新進展。

Thanks, Tom. Let's move to slide 6, which shows how Allstate has benefited from transformative growth. In the top left, you can see the progress made on competitive prices. We reduced the adjusted expense ratio by 6.6 points since 2018, which allows us to offer lower auto and homeowners insurance prices, while maintaining margins. We also increased the sophistication and precision of pricing models, enabling more accurate pricing.

謝謝你，湯姆。讓我們來看看第 6 張投影片，它展示了 Allstate 如何從變革性成長中受益。在左上角，您可以看到在價格競爭力方面取得的進展。自 2018 年以來，我們調整後的費用率降低了 6.6 個百分點，這使我們能夠在保持利潤率的同時，提供更低的汽車和房屋保險價格。我們也提高了定價模型的複雜性和精確度，從而實現了更準確的定價。

Allstate now has the broadest distribution in the industry. Customers can shop for Allstate coverage through Allstate agents, independent agents and directly by phone or via the web. We acquired National General in 2021 to strengthen independent agent channel capabilities and expand nonstandard auto insurance offerings. We increased direct sales using the Allstate brand and improved Allstate agent productivity.

Allstate目前擁有業界最廣泛的經銷網絡。客戶可以透過 Allstate 代理人、獨立代理人以及直接透過電話或網路購買 Allstate 保險。我們於 2021 年收購了 National General，以加強獨立代理通路能力並擴大非標準汽車保險產品。我們利用Allstate品牌提高了直接銷售額，並提高了Allstate代理商的生產力。

We enhanced the product portfolio by introducing the affordable, simple and connected auto insurance product in 43 states and the new homeowners insurance product in 31 states. We also have ASC renters available in 30 states. In the independent agent channel, Custom 360 auto and Homeowners Insurance products are available in 36 states.

我們透過在 43 個州推出價格實惠、簡單便捷且互聯互通的汽車保險產品，以及在 31 個州推出新的房屋保險產品，增強了產品組合。我們在30個州也有ASC租賃服務。在獨立代理商通路中，Custom 360 汽車和房屋保險產品在 36 個州有售。

These new products create value for customers by improving affordability, broadening our risk appetite and expanding availability for consumers. Sophisticated marketing has enhanced acquisition capabilities and economics. Marketing investment increased to $2.1 billion in 2025, up from $900 million in 2019, enabling us to effectively reach more consumers with a more competitive price and better customer experience.

這些新產品透過提高可負擔性、擴大風險承受範圍和增加消費者可近性，為客戶創造價值。先進的營銷手段提高了客戶獲取能力和經濟效益。2025 年行銷投入增加到 21 億美元，高於 2019 年的 9 億美元，使我們能夠以更具競爭力的價格和更好的客戶體驗有效地觸及更多消費者。

At the bottom of the slide, you can see the results. Personal Lines new business increased from $5.5 million in 2019 to $11.6 million in 2025, more than doubling. New business is now also balanced between Allstate agents, independent agents and the direct channel. Total personal lines policies in force increased from $33.5 million to $38.1 million with a more balanced distribution across channels. These proof points demonstrate that transformative growth is working.

在幻燈片的底部，您可以看到結果。個人保險業務新業務額從 2019 年的 550 萬美元增加到 2025 年的 1,160 萬美元，成長超過一倍。現在，Allstate 的新業務在 Allstate 代理商、獨立代理商和直接管道之間也保持了平衡。個人保險保單總額從 3,350 萬美元增加到 3,810 萬美元，各通路的分佈更為均衡。這些證據表明，變革性成長是行之有效的。

Turning to slide 7. We are now into Phases 4 and 5 of transformative growth, focusing on rolling out new platforms and decommissioning the existing ones. In these phases, we continue to broadly focus on the 5 components of transformative growth shown in the gray boxes in the middle of the page as we scale the new model and retire legacy technology and processes.

翻到第7張投影片。我們現在進入了轉型成長的第 4 和第 5 階段，重點是推出新平台和淘汰現有平台。在這些階段，我們將繼續廣泛關注頁面中間灰色方框中所示的變革性成長的 5 個組成部分，同時擴大新模式的規模並淘汰遺留技術和流程。

Now let's turn to slide 8 to discuss Protection Services. The Protection Services segment is comprised of 5 businesses: protection plans; dealer services; roadside assistance; Arity and identity protection, where protection is embedded in other offerings. In 2025, the Protection Services segment grew policies in force by 3.3% to $172 million, while revenue increased 11.7% to $3.3 billion for the year.

現在讓我們翻到第 8 張投影片，討論保全服務。保護服務部門由 5 個業務組成：保護計畫；經銷商服務；道路救援；Arity 和身分保護（其中保護功能嵌入到其他產品中）。2025 年，保障服務部門的有效保單數量增加了 3.3%，達到 1.72 億美元，而當年的收入成長了 11.7%，達到 33 億美元。

Adjusted net income was $218 million in the quarter or for the year. Policy growth in this segment was led by protection plans, which continues to expand both domestically and internationally, as you can see on the lower right. Domestic revenue increased 8.1% over the prior year quarter, while international revenue increased 39.7%. The business generated $49 million in adjusted net income in this quarter, up 32.4% from the prior year quarter. Now I'll turn it over to Jess to discuss the Property-Liability business.

本季或全年的調整後淨收入為 2.18 億美元。該領域的政策增長主要由保障計劃引領，保障計劃在國內和國際上持續擴張，正如您在右下角看到的那樣。國內營收較上年同期成長 8.1%，國際營收成長 39.7%。該業務本季實現調整後淨收入 4,900 萬美元，比上年同期成長 32.4%。現在我將把發言權交給傑西，讓她來討論財產責任險業務。

All right. Thank you, Mario. Starting with slide 9. The Property-Liability business generated strong results in 2025. The table on the left shows full year 2025 results. Premiums earned increased 4.4% in Auto Insurance and 15% in Homeowners Insurance with auto policy growth of 2.3% and homeowners growth -- policy growth of 2.5%.

好的。謝謝你，馬裡奧。從第9張投影片開始。2025年，財產責任險業務取得了強勁的業績。左側表格顯示的是 2025 年全年業績。汽車保險保費收入成長了 4.4%，房屋保險保費收入成長了 15%，其中汽車保單成長了 2.3%，房屋保單成長了 2.5%。

At the bottom of the table, you can see that the auto combined ratio improved by 10 points compared to the prior year. This is due to strong underlying performance as well as lower catastrophes and favorable prior year reserve releases. Excluding the benefit of reserve changes and lower catastrophes the auto insurance combined ratio was about 90%.

從表格底部可以看出，汽車綜合比率比前一年提高了 10 個百分點。這主要歸功於強勁的基本面表現、較低的災害發生率以及有利的往年準備金釋放。不考慮準備金變化和災害減少的好處，汽車保險綜合比率約為 90%。

The homeowners insurance combined ratio of 84.4% reflects continued strong underlying performance and lower catastrophe losses when compared to last year. For the full year 2025, Auto Insurance generated $5.7 billion of underwriting income and Homeowners Insurance generated $2.4 billion. The right side of this slide shows earned premium impacts of actions taken to improve affordability, which are included in our financial results.

房屋保險綜合賠付率為 84.4%，反映出持續強勁的基本面表現以及與去年相比更低的災害損失。2025 年全年，汽車保險承保收入為 57 億美元，房屋保險承保收入為 24 億美元。此投影片的右側顯示了為提高可負擔性而採取的行動對已賺取保費的影響，這些影響已包含在我們的財務表現中。

The chart shows the cumulative auto insurance earned premium impact from rate decreases and save actions taken through 2025. By the end of the year, the total impact was $810 million or approximately 2% of 2025 auto earned premiums. Improved affordability supports growth.

該圖表顯示了到 2025 年，汽車保險費率下降和節約措施對累計已賺保費的影響。到年底，總影響達 8.1 億美元，約佔 2025 年汽車保險已賺保費的 2%。提高購買力有助於促進成長。

Turning now to slide 10. Auto claims process improvements are helping to offset increasing loss costs, support increased affordability and contributed to favorable reserve adjustments. On the left side is an overview of improvements that we've made to physical damage claim processes.

現在翻到第10張投影片。汽車理賠流程的改進有助於抵消不斷上漲的損失成本，提高保費承受能力，並促成有利的準備金調整。左側概述了我們對財產損失索賠流程所做的改進。

These processes are being enhanced by optimizing the method of inspection, focusing on adjuster training and using advanced computing capabilities. On the right, you can see what we're doing to manage injury costs. We redesigned our operating model to accelerate payments to entered parties where appropriate, utilizing new tools and quality assurance processes to enhance claim handling.

透過優化檢查方法、注重理賠員培訓和利用先進的運算能力，這些流程正在加強。在右側，您可以看到我們為控制傷病成本所採取的措施。我們重新設計了營運模式，以便在適當情況下加快向相關方付款，並利用新的工具和品質保證流程來加強索賠處理。

Predictive models are also being used to identify potentially injured parties earlier in the process to resolve claims promptly and control liability. On slide 11, you can see that auto insurance growth accelerated and broadened geographically in 2025. These graphs show the distribution of policy growth by state and percentage of premiums written.

預測模型也被用於在訴訟過程中更早識別潛在的受傷方，以便及時解決索賠並控制責任。從第 11 張投影片可以看出，到 2025 年，汽車保險的成長速度加快，地理範圍擴大。這些圖表顯示了各州保費成長的分佈以及保費收入的百分比。

For example, on the right-hand chart, you can see that at the end of 2025, less than 30% of premium were in states that were not growing. Staying on that chart and moving to the second blue bar from the right, 14 states were growing policies in force by 4% to 10% and represented more than 30% of premiums.

例如，在右側圖表中可以看到，到 2025 年底，不到 30% 的保費來自那些沒有成長的州。繼續看這張圖表，移到從右數第二個藍色長條圖，可以看到 14 個州的保單生效率增加了 4% 到 10%，佔保費的 30% 以上。

Comparing the left graph to 2024 -- for 2024 to the right graph for 2025 shows a reduction in red bars, higher blue growth bars and a shift towards the right, which is higher growth. We now have 20 states growing policies by at least 4% and are growing in 38 states that represent more than 70% of countrywide written premium.

將左圖與 2024 年的圖表進行比較——2024 年的圖表與右圖（2025 年的圖表）顯示，紅色長條圖減少，藍色增長柱狀圖更高，並且向右移動，這意味著更高的增長。目前，已有 20 個州的保單數量增加至少 4%，另有 38 個州的保單數量正在成長，這些州的保費收入佔全國總保費收入的 70% 以上。

Turning to slide 12. The homeowners insurance business continues to grow and generate industry-leading returns. Premiums earned have increased each year since 2021. Allstate in force have also grown steadily supported by expanded distribution and new products. We target a low 90s recorded combined ratio for homeowners and an underlying combined ratio in the low to mid-60s.

翻到第12張投影片。房屋保險業務持續成長，並創造了行業領先的回報。自 2021 年以來，保費收入逐年成長。由於分銷管道的擴大和新產品的推出，Allstate 的有效保單數量也穩步增長。我們的目標是讓房主的綜合比率保持在 90% 左右，而基礎綜合比率保持在 60% 左右。

The underlying combined ratio for 2025 was 57.9%, which demonstrates the effectiveness of our differentiated model with advanced risk selection, new products, pricing sophistication and efficient claims handling. The recorded combined ratio was 84.4%, which is well below the industry average. Allstate's average combined ratio over the last 10 years was 92.0%. This business remains a competitive advantage and growth opportunity for Allstate. With that, I'll turn it over to John.

2025 年的綜合比率為 57.9%，這表明我們採用的差異化模式，包括先進的風險選擇、新產品、定價策略和高效的理賠處理，是行之有效的。記錄的綜合比率為 84.4%，遠低於行業平均。過去 10 年，Allstate 的平均綜合比率為 92.0%。這項業務仍然是好事達保險公司的競爭優勢和成長機會。接下來，我將把麥克風交給約翰。

Thanks, Jess. Good morning, everyone. Now let's turn to slide 13 to discuss the investment portfolio. The portfolio continued to perform well with net investment income rising to $3.4 billion in 2025, more than $350 million higher year-over-year, while maintaining strong risk discipline. Over the past 12 months, total portfolio carrying value increased from approximately $73 billion to $83 billion due to operating and investment cash flows.

謝謝你，傑西。各位早安。現在讓我們翻到第 13 張投影片來討論投資組合。該投資組合繼續表現良好，2025 年淨投資收益增至 34 億美元，比上年增長超過 3.5 億美元，同時保持了強大的風險控制能力。過去 12 個月，由於經營和投資現金流，投資組合總帳面價值從約 730 億美元增加到 830 億美元。

That growth, combined with higher fixed income yields led to a meaningful increase in investment income. From a return perspective, market-based assets generated a 6.1% total return, materially higher than last year due to increased bond prices from lower interest rates and higher equity returns. Performance-based investments delivered a 5.8% return, down slightly year-over-year, consistent with broader performance in private markets.

這一成長，加上固定收益收益率的提高，導致投資收益顯著增加。從回報角度來看，市場資產的總回報率為 6.1%，由於利率下降導致債券價格上漲以及股票回報率上升，這一回報率遠高於去年。績效導向投資實現了 5.8% 的回報，年比略有下降，與私募市場的整體表現一致。

During the year, we took several deliberate actions as private markets adjusted to a tighter capital and liquidity backdrop in 2025. This included selling approximately $270 million of funded interest in the secondary market, accelerating and deepening expectations for financial reporting and moderating new commitments in response to lower industry-wide distributions.

今年，隨著私募市場調整以適應 2025 年更緊縮的資本和流動性環境，我們採取了幾項深思熟慮的措施。這包括在二級市場出售約 2.7 億美元的融資權益，加快和深化對財務報告的預期，並因行業整體分紅減少而放緩新的承諾。

Let's wrap up with slide 14 for an overview of Allstate's significant cash returns to shareholders. In 2025, Allstate paid over $2.2 billion in common shareholder dividends and share repurchases. The quarterly stock dividend will increase by 8% to $1.08 per share, payable in cash on April 1, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 2 of 2026.

讓我們以第 14 張投影片來總結 Allstate 為股東帶來的巨額現金回報。2025年，Allstate向普通股股東支付了超過22億美元的股利和股票回購款。季度股票股利將增加 8%，達到每股 1.08 美元，並將於 2026 年 4 月 1 日以現金支付給 2026 年 3 月 2 日營業結束時登記在冊的股東。

Additionally, a $4 billion share repurchase program has been authorized and execution will begin upon completion of the existing $1.5 billion share repurchase program, which will be completed in the first quarter of 2026. In the last five years, Allstate has purchased 18% of common shares outstanding. And in the last 10 years, Allstate has purchased 39% of shares outstanding. Now let's move to questions.

此外，一項 40 億美元的股票回購計畫已獲批准，將在現有的 15 億美元股票回購計畫完成後開始執行，該計畫將於 2026 年第一季完成。在過去的五年裡，Allstate 收購了 18% 的已發行普通股。在過去的 10 年裡，Allstate 收購了 39% 的流通股。現在我們進入問答環節。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Good morning, everyone. So I'd like to, for the first question, focus on the regulatory and legislative changes slide. And I know there's been some attention in the marketplace to certain states announcing a more proactive approach towards rate relief for their consumers. I also recognize that this is very much a state-by-state process for you guys.

各位早安。所以，對於第一個問題，我想重點討論一下監管和立法變化的那張投影片。我知道市場上已經出現了一些關注點，即某些州宣布將採取更積極主動的方式來減輕消費者的利率負擔。我也意識到，對你們來說，這很大程度上是一個因州而異的過程。

So I was wondering if you could provide us some color on how the regulatory environment, how you think it might change for you guys in terms of what regulators might ask you to do over the next 24 months or so in terms of rate relief?

所以我想知道您能否為我們介紹一下監管環境，您認為在未來24個月左右的時間裡，監管機構可能會要求您在利率減免方面做些什麼，以及監管環境可能會發生哪些變化？

Thanks for the question, Greg. Of course, predicting politics is probably you should get on Polymarket to do that. But so first, I would say the numbers we showed are countrywide numbers. So this issue of affordability for consumers is an issue everywhere. So our SAVE program, we were everywhere. We -- every state we go after every customer, they all care about the amount of money and the costs are -- have increased a lot recently.

謝謝你的提問，格雷格。當然，預測政治局勢可能要靠Polymarket平台。但首先，我想說明我們展示的數字是全國範圍內的數字。因此，消費者的購買力問題是一個普遍存在的問題。所以，我們的SAVE項目無所不在。我們——我們去的每個州，我們服務的每個客戶，他們都很關心金額和成本——最近都大幅上漲了。

Obviously accelerated by the pandemic and physical damage. But then underneath that for a long time has been the bodily injury costs where -- if you make a mistake and you run into somebody and bash them in the side of the car, you don't feel like you should be sued for $100,000. And so I'm hopeful that what this will do is put the attention on that needs to change.

顯然，疫情和天災加速了這一進程。但長期以來，其背後一直存在著人身傷害賠償問題——如果你犯了錯，撞到別人，把他們的車撞得粉碎，你不會覺得你應該被起訴索賠 10 萬美元。所以我希望這件事能讓人們注意到需要改變的地方。

Like people don't need to be paying for lawyers and for fender bender lawsuits. And so this is really an issue everywhere in the country. As I mentioned, Florida has done some really good work and it's turned into benefits for customers. So Florida should be acknowledged. Other states are starting to get this.

人們沒必要花錢請律師，也沒必要為輕微交通事故訴訟買單。所以這確實是全國各地都存在的問題。正如我之前提到的，佛羅裡達州已經做了很多卓有成效的工作，這些工作也為客戶帶來了好處。所以佛羅裡達州應該得到認可。其他州也開始意識到這一點了。

There's been a long-standing discussion between us, regulators and the trial attorneys as to what's fair and right, and we obviously think that our customers should pay less for litigation against them. And we'd like to see everybody take this on.

我們、監管機構和訴訟律師之間就公平正義問題進行了長期的討論，我們顯然認為我們的客戶應該為針對他們的訴訟支付更少的費用。我們希望每個人都能參與其中。

Okay. I guess related to this, you talked the slide -- slide 11, where you talked about your in-force growth, as you're dealing with -- I think you said you lowered prices for 7.8 million customers in 2025, and you highlighted where you're growing. We're hearing in the marketplace that certain mutuals and other companies might be getting more aggressive in the marketplace around auto and home.

好的。我想這與此有關，您在投影片 11 中談到了您的現有客戶成長情況，以及您正在應對的問題——我想您提到您在 2025 年降低了 780 萬客戶的價格，並且您重點介紹了您的成長點。我們從市場上了解到，某些互助保險公司和其他公司可能會在汽車和房屋保險市場採取更積極的策略。

So maybe you could step back and give us some perspective on sort of the competitive landscape as you see it today, both in auto and home and across the country?

那麼，您能否退後一步，從您的角度來看待當今汽車和房屋行業的競爭格局，以及全國範圍內的競爭格局？

It does seem to be people looking for what's lurking around the corner. So let me talk about competition. We've always been in a highly competitive market in all of our products. So this is nothing new. Sometimes it changes as you point out, by state, sometimes it changes by company.

看起來確實像是人們在尋找潛伏在角落的東西。那麼，就讓我來談談競爭吧。我們所有產品都一直處於競爭非常激烈的市場。所以這並非什麼新鮮事。正如你所指出的，有時因州而異，有時因公司而異。

But the way in which you compete is very broad, you understand, first, you have to have a product that's differentiated, you got to have to have an attractive price, you got to have a great brand, you got to have broad access, and advertising is a game of precision and scale these days. And transformative growth that Mario went through, addresses all of those, right?

但你要明白，競爭的方式非常廣泛，首先，你必須擁有差異化的產品，你必須有有吸引力的價格，你必須擁有一個優秀的品牌，你必須有廣泛的管道，而如今的廣告是一場精準和規模的遊戲。馬裡奧經歷的變革性成長，正能解決所有這些問題，對吧？

So we've been at this for a while. If you look by product then, and you say, okay, in auto insurance, we have three really aggressive competitors, they've been the same three competitors for a while, Progressive, GEICO and State Farm. Progressive, as you know, well, has been growing rapidly. GEICO has lost a couple of points of market share and Safe Farm picked up, but not quite that, amount of market share gain.

我們已經為此努力了一段時間了。如果以產品來看，比方說，在汽車保險領域，我們有三個非常激進的競爭對手，而這三個競爭對手已經持續了一段時間，分別是 Progressive、GEICO 和 State Farm。如你所知，Progressive 公司發展迅速。GEICO 的市佔率下降了幾個百分點，而 Safe Farm 的市佔率有所成長，但沒有 GEICO 的市佔率成長那麼多。

So volume tends to go. They just pointed out; there's a bunch of states where we think we're picking up share. So if you're over 4 points, there's not 4% more cars in the United States in total or in any of the states. So if you're over 4 points, you're picking up market share.

所以銷量往往會下降。他們只是指出：我們認為我們在許多州的市佔率都在成長。所以，如果你超過 4 分，並不代表美國整體或任何一個州的汽車數量會增加 4%。所以，如果你超過 4 個百分點，你就正在贏得市場佔有率。

So we -- our transformative growth plan has helped us pick up market share. Homeowners is kind of same but a little different because about half of the business is done by mutual. So as you point out, they have different profit requirements. That said, we've been able to grow that business. It's -- what we think is higher than market share with a fair amount of constraints on catastrophe losses and earn of economic risks better than the industry by a large margin.

因此，我們—我們變革性的成長計劃幫助我們獲得了市場份額。房屋保險的情況類似，但又略有不同，因為大約一半的業務是透過互助方式完成的。正如你所指出的，他們的獲利需求不同。儘管如此，我們還是成功地發展了這項業務。我們認為，在巨災損失和經濟風險收益方面，其市佔率高於行業平均水平，且受到相當程度的限制。

So we feel really good about continuing to compete in auto insurance, continuing to compete in home insurance. In fact, we think home insurance has more growth potential, we think we can dial up growth. And so Jess and Mario may want to comment on these two. So specialty lines, we also -- we don't talk much about it, and there are some specialty lines insurers, which have valuations which seem relatively large compared to us.

因此，我們對繼續在汽車保險領域保持競爭力、繼續在房屋保險領域保持競爭力感到非常樂觀。事實上，我們認為房屋保險更有成長潛力，我們認為我們可以加速成長。所以傑西和馬裡奧可能想對這兩人發表一些評論。所以，特殊險種方面，我們也——我們不太談論它，而且有些特殊險種保險公司的估值似乎比我們大得多。

And yet when I look at our growth, our size, our scale, we are in many ways good and in many ways better. And then in our protection plans business, that's also a highly competitive business. So we didn't get Walmart and Home Depot because we're no good. We got it because we compete on the things I was talking about, and Mario already talked about it, but maybe you guys want to comment on what you're seeing at the ground level in auto and home and then in protection plans.

然而，當我審視我們的發展、規模和體積時，我們在許多方面都做得很好，在很多方面也做得更好。而且，在我們的保障計畫業務領域，競爭也非常激烈。所以我們沒能入駐沃爾瑪和家得寶，因為我們不行。我們之所以能做到這一點，是因為我們和我剛才提到的那些方面存在競爭關係，馬裡奧也已經談到了這一點，但也許你們想就你們在汽車、房屋和保障計劃方面看到的實際情況發表一些評論。

Yes, sure. So I think, Greg, where I would start is Mario covered transformative growth. And when I think about the competitive environment, I really go back to all of the efforts and investments we've made in transformative growth. So I think focusing on affordability, right? This isn't the first quarter we've been focused on affordability. It's in ASC, affordable, simple and connected. And we've rolled out a significant number of states with that new product.

當然可以。所以我覺得，格雷格，我會從馬裡奧所介紹的轉型成長開始講起。當我思考競爭環境時，我總是會想起我們為實現變革性成長所做的所有努力和投資。所以我認為應該要專注在價格承受能力，對吧？這並非我們第一個季度將重點放在價格可負擔性。它位於ASC，價格實惠，操作簡單，網路連接良好。我們已在相當多的州推出了這款新產品。

We continue to drive down expenses and focus on claims, again, to lower cost, marketing sophistication makes us better able to compete in this environment. And then the broad platform that we have, the broadest platform in the industry, exclusive agents, independent agents and direct business allows us to compete differently in all the different product lines that Tom went through.

我們繼續降低開支，專注於理賠，再次降低成本，行銷技巧的提升使我們能夠更好地在這個環境中競爭。此外，我們擁有業內最廣泛的平台，包括專屬代理商、獨立代理商和直接業務，這使我們能夠在湯姆經歷過的所有不同產品線中以不同的方式競爭。

So I feel good about the investment. And I think when you go through the lines, the results show that. So as Tom said, on slide 11, we showed 6 states growing greater than 10%. 14 from 4% to 10%. So that's 20% -- or sorry, 20 states that are picking up share. We have 38 states growing in total and they make up about 70% of our premium. So in the auto line, we're showing proof that transformative growth works.

所以我對這筆投資感覺很好。我認為當你仔細分析這些線條時，結果就證明了這一點。正如湯姆所說，在第11張投影片中，我們展示了6個州的成長率超過10%，14個州的成長率在4%到10%之間。所以，有 20% 的州——或者抱歉，是 20 個州——正在擴大市場份額。我們共有 38 個州的業務正在成長，這些州的業務約占我們保費收入的 70%。所以在汽車領域，我們正在證明變革性成長是行之有效的。

If I flip to home, homeowners insurance is growing in 36 states. We've got ASC in 31 of those states, and we had some significant launches in the back half of the year. The reason that's important is we can better compete on a direct basis in homeowners when we have the ASC product. We see great traction, and I think we've proven that, that's a product that can be sold on a direct basis when we get ASC into the market.

如果我把話題轉向房屋保險，就會發現36個州的房屋保險業務正在成長。我們在其中 31 個州都開展了 ASC 業務，並且在今年下半年進行了一些重要的發射。之所以說這一點很重要，是因為有了 ASC 產品，我們就能更好地與房主直接競爭。我們看到了很大的市場反響，我認為我們已經證明了這一點，當ASC進入市場後，這是一款可以直接銷售的產品。

So we're seeing very good trends and elevated production levels, particularly on the web in the homeowners line. And then as Tom said, it's good to give one of our specialty lines renters some attention. We have, I think Mario mentioned 30 states in ASC the renters line is growing faster than auto and home. So we're picking up share and growing the renters line and we're doing it all at profitable levels.

因此，我們看到了非常好的趨勢和較高的生產水平，尤其是在家庭用戶網路銷售方面。正如湯姆所說，最好也關心我們的一些特色租賃產品。我認為馬裡奧提到過，在 ASC 中，租屋者的數量在 30 個州的成長速度比汽車和房屋貸款的成長速度更快。因此，我們正在擴大市場份額，發展租屋者產品線，而且這一切都是在獲利水準上實現的。

So it continues to run below target profitability. So as I look across those lines and there's other specialty lines we could talk about. But I think we're seeing the results of investing in transformative growth. We're seeing the results of the system working to help position us competitively to your question, to continue to win. So that's kind of my view of the Property-Liability business.

因此，其獲利能力持續低於預期目標。所以，當我環顧四周，發現還有其他一些專業領域我們可以討論。但我認為我們正在看到投資變革性成長所帶來的成果。我們看到該系統正在發揮作用，幫助我們保持競爭力，從而繼續贏得您提出的問題。這就是我對財產責任險業務的看法。

Yes. And Greg, the only thing I'd add on protection plans. We've grown that to be a $2.3 billion business. And we've done it in a variety of ways. First, as Tom mentioned, it is a highly competitive business, both in terms of incumbents and new entrants into the market. But we've been able to leverage the capabilities at Allstate Protection Plans to add new partners, like Tom mentioned, with Home Depot and Walmart and a number of those logos that you saw on the slide that I covered, we've expanded into new categories and to appliances and furniture. And so we've seen growth there.

是的。格雷格，關於保障計劃，我唯一要補充的是…我們已經將這項業務發展成為價值 23 億美元的產業。我們用多種方式實現了這一點。首先，正如湯姆所提到的，這是一個競爭非常激烈的行業，無論是現有企業還是新進入市場的企業都面臨著激烈的競爭。但是，我們已經能夠利用 Allstate Protection Plans 的能力來增加新的合作夥伴，就像 Tom 提到的那樣，與 Home Depot 和 Walmart 以及我在幻燈片上展示的許多標誌合作，我們已經擴展到新的類別，包括家電和家具。因此，我們看到了這方面的成長。

And then we've been able to expand geographically. Our business in Europe is expanding rapidly with some very large mobile carriers and consumer electronic carriers as well within Europe and there's opportunity for us in Asia Pacific as well. So the playbook has been to continue to leverage capabilities, enhance our capabilities and use that to expand in a number of different ways in what is a very competitive market, and we've been really successful at doing that.

然後，我們得以在地域上擴張。我們在歐洲的業務正在迅速擴張，與歐洲一些大型行動營運商和消費性電子營運商都有合作，我們在亞太地區也有機會。因此，我們的策略是繼續利用自身能力，增強自身能力，並以此在競爭激烈的市場中以多種不同的方式進行擴張，而我們在這方面取得了巨大的成功。

Got it. Thanks for the additional detail.

知道了。感謝您提供的更多細節。

Yaron Kinar, Mizuho.

Yaron Kinar，瑞穗銀行。

Thank you. Good morning. Just to remain on the subject of PIF. For auto PIF does that slide 11 includes the decreases in the legacy insurance and Encompass policies? And when do you expect that drag to end?

謝謝。早安.還是繼續說PIF這個話題吧。對於汽車PIF，第11張投影片是否包含了傳統保險和Encompass保單的減少？你預計這種拖延何時才能結束？

Make sure I get the question. Are you talking about the overall numbers or the active brands numbers that we've put?

請確保我理解了問題。您指的是總體數字還是我們統計的活躍品牌數量？

I guess my question is, is slide 11 just for active brands? Or does it also include the drag from the other -- the Esurance and the Encompass policies?

我想問的是，第 11 張投影片是否只適用於活躍品牌？或者，它是否也包括來自其他方面（Esurance 和 Encompass 保單）的拖累？

Yes, Yaron, this is Jess. It includes the inactive brands as well. So to the extent we're losing policies, that's reflected in this chart.

是的，亞倫，這是傑西。它也包括已停用的品牌。所以，如果我們在政策上有所損失，這一點就反映在這張圖表上。

Yes. We hold ourselves accountable for total growth. We're not -- I mean, we do show the active brands because people found that interest using active brands up 3.3%. But we should be accountable for our overall growth.

是的。我們對整體成長負責。我們不——我的意思是，我們確實展示了活躍品牌，因為人們發現使用活躍品牌的興趣上升了 3.3%。但我們應該對整體成長負責。

Okay. And when do you expect that drag from the nonactive brands to end?

好的。你預期非活躍品牌帶來的這種拖累何時才能結束？

That's not -- I would look at the chart Jess showed that showed it by state. And the -- another question is how do we get some of those red states into the blue states. And we're working on all those. We've had some good movement in one state recently, but we still have a couple of other states that we need to make some changes.

不是這樣的——我會看看傑西展示的圖表，上面按州列出了數據。另一個問題是，我們如何讓一些紅州變成藍州。我們正在努力解決所有這些問題。最近我們在一個州取得了一些不錯的進展，但我們仍然需要在其他幾個州做出一些改變。

So it's less about the brands, shutting down those old brands is really part of TG cutting costs. if we just don't need all the technology, the separate advertising. We cut all that stuff out, that's how we're getting expenses down.

所以，這與其說是關乎品牌，不如說是關閉那些老品牌是TG削減成本的舉措之一。如果我們不再需要所有的技術和單獨的廣告，那就另當別論了。我們砍掉了所有這些開支，這就是我們降低成本的方法。

And we try to roll some of that business into the Allstate brand. So I would really focus on it, Yaron, from a state standpoint and say, how do we have those reds all become blue and shift the blue even further to the right. So we're picking up share everywhere.

我們嘗試將其中一部分業務併入 Allstate 品牌。所以，亞倫，我會從國家層級著重考慮這個問題，然後說，我們如何讓所有紅色區域都變成藍色區域，並將藍色區域進一步向右移動。所以我們正在各個領域提升市場佔有率。

The other thing that you can watch Yaron is the rollout of Custom 360, right? So when we roll -- Custom 360 is in 36 states at the end of the year. And so as you watch us continue to roll that out, as effectively, that's what replaces the Encompass brand. So that's something you can keep an eye on as well.

Yaron，你也可以關註一下 Custom 360 的推出情況，對吧？所以當我們開始行動時——到年底，Custom 360 的業務將涵蓋 36 個州。因此，正如您所看到的，我們將繼續推廣這項服務，實際上，這就是取代 Encompass 品牌的方式。所以這也是你需要關注的一點。

Thank you. And then shifting gears back to the regulatory and legislative changes. I guess one question I have, and I don't know if it's something you've discussed with the relevant parties. Is a two- or even three-year look back to determine excess profitability too short of a time period?

謝謝。然後，我們再回到監管和立法方面的變化。我想問一個問題，不知道您是否已經和相關各方討論過。回顧兩到三年的時間來確定超額獲利能力是否太短？

I think it would be by line, right? So homeowners would be a longer period of time because you have catastrophes that go. I guess, though my general reaction is I don't know what excess profits mean, right? Like so in the homeowners business, the industry loses money. And so if legislatives or regulators want customers to pay less, having the insurance industry in total, lose money is not the right way to go.

我想應該是按行計算的，對吧？因此，房主需要更長的時間，因為會遇到各種災難。不過，我的第一個反應是，我不知道超額利潤是什麼意思，對吧？就像房屋業主產業一樣，整個產業都在虧損。因此，如果立法者或監管機構希望客戶少付錢，讓整個保險業虧損並不是正確的做法。

That's the message we're trying to say. Like you can't ask companies to give up more of their capital to support lower prices because that's not sustainable because they only have so much capital. And then you look at us and you say, well, we do better than the industry in profitability in homeowners. I don't think that's excess, I just think we're better.

這就是我們想要傳達的訊息。你不能要求公司為了降低價格而放棄更多資本，因為這不可持續，因為他們的資本是有限的。然後你看看我們，你會說，嗯，我們在房主盈利方面比業內其他公司做得更好。我不認為這是過分，我只是覺得我們做得更好。

And so we have better products, better costs, better -- and so I'm sort of not in the camp of people should be thinking about excess profits. I'm like, let's get cost down totally through that. And the way to get costs down are to address cost because we're a cost plus industry not to go after what some people might perceive to be excess rents. It's a highly competitive market. We earn every dollar legitimately we make in homeowners because we're good at it. And our customers still get great value.

因此，我們有了更好的產品、更低的成本、更好的——所以我並不屬於那種認為人們應該考慮超額利潤的陣營。我的想法是，讓我們透過這種方式徹底降低成本。降低成本的方法是解決成本問題，因為我們是成本加成產業，不應該去追求某些人可能認為過高的租金。這是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。我們在房主身上賺的每一分錢都是合法所得，因為我們擅長這項工作。我們的客戶仍然能獲得極大的價值。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅布·考克斯，高盛。

Hey, thanks, good morning, so first question is just on new business penalty. Think Allstate's mix of growth here is coming more from new business than on average historically. So I'm curious how the new business penalty has trended relative to your expectations, and if we should expect margins to potentially normalize quicker than in past cycles because of all the new apps growth?

嘿，謝謝，早上好，第一個問題是關於新企業罰款的。我認為Allstate此次的成長更多來自新業務，而非歷史平均。所以我很想知道，新業務的懲罰性支出與您的預期相比趨勢如何？由於新應用的激增，我們是否應該預期利潤率會比以往週期更快恢復正常？

I'll make a couple of overall comments and then Jess can jump in here. First, with the increasing pricing sophistication, you have, I would just say, in general, less new business penalty because you can be much more precise about what you charge people. So we're much more sophisticated at pricing.

我先做幾點總體評價，然後傑西可以接著說。首先，隨著定價機制的日益完善，總的來說，新業務的損失會減少，因為你可以更精確地向人們收取費用。所以我們在定價方面更加成熟。

That said, you do, sometimes, when you have acquisition costs, you got to spend money in advertising to get people and it does cost more money to get a new customer than to keep a customer. And so it does -- there is some penalty there. It depends by the type of business you're in.

也就是說，有時候確實如此，當你有獲客成本時，你必須花錢做廣告來吸引客戶，而獲取新客戶的成本確實比留住客戶的成本更高。確實如此——這其中存在著一些懲罰。這取決於你從事的是哪種類型的業務。

So a lot of our growth in the last couple of years has been driven by expanding in the higher risk drivers or what's traditionally called non standard business, and that has a smaller new business penalty because it's going to hang around less. So you're looking at it in terms of lifetime value of your cost.

因此，過去幾年我們的許多成長都是由高風險驅動因素或傳統上稱為非標準業務的擴張所推動的，而這類業務的新業務損失較小，因為它持續時間較短。所以你是從成本的終身價值來考慮的。

That said, we feel very comfortable we can grow with transformative growth, increase market share and still earn our attractive and target margins. The system works like the math works to grow and handle whatever the new business penalty is whether that's non standard or standard. Jess, anything you want to add to that?

也就是說，我們非常有信心能夠實現變革性成長，提高市場份額，並且仍然獲得我們理想的目標利潤率。該系統的運作方式與數學運作方式類似，可以發展並處理任何新的業務懲罰，無論這種懲罰是標準的還是非標準的。傑西，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I would just say that it's a state-by-state evaluation that we do or aware of both mix of business. As Tom said, the non standard or the high-risk business is priced to make money right away. So we can focus on mix of businesses we look at potential new business penalty. You also have seen we've lowered ASC rates in 32 states, right? So we're managing overall profitability on a state-by-state basis, considering both target margins and what potential new business penalty we project out. But overall, I would say it's something that we're very focused on, again, at a granular state level.

不。我只想說，這是我們逐州的評估，或者說，我們了解各種類型的企業。正如湯姆所說，非標準或高風險業務的定價是為了盡快獲利。因此，我們可以專注於業務組合，並考慮潛在的新業務處罰。您也已經看到我們在 32 個州降低了 ASC 費率，對吧？因此，我們正在逐州管理整體獲利能力，既考慮目標利潤率，也考慮我們預期可能的新業務損失。但總的來說，我認為這是我們非常關注的事情，尤其是在具體到州一級。

That makes sense. And then just a follow-up on specifically independent agents channel. I think -- so the growth in the IA channel new apps accelerated quarter-over-quarter, which is somewhat of a step change from historical seasonality from what we can tell. And you've got a number of factors improving growth, but I was hoping you could just walk through the primary drivers of the improvement in new apps, specifically within the IA channel.

這很有道理。然後，我想就獨立代理商管道做個後續跟進。我認為－因此，IA通路新應用的成長速度環比加快，從我們目前所見，這與歷史季節性變化相比，算是一個質的飛躍。有很多因素促進了成長，但我希望您能詳細介紹新應用（特別是 IA 頻道）成長的主要驅動因素。

I'll provide some overview, and then Jess can jump in. First, I would say I wouldn't really look at the new apps by quarter by channel. I'm going to take you up a minute and then Jess can talk about what's going on in the future. So transformative growth was, maintain the productivity of the Allstate agents, and we've done that. We're writing more new business through Allstate agents with fewer of them.

我先做個概述，然後傑西就可以加入討論了。首先，我不會按季度按管道來查看新應用程式。我先佔用你一分鐘時間，然後傑西可以談談未來會發生什麼事。因此，實現變革性成長的關鍵在於保持 Allstate 代理人的生產力，而我們已經做到了這一點。我們透過Allstate的代理人，用更少的代理人創造了更多的新業務。

So productivity is actually up. We have dramatic growth in both direct and independent agent, Mario and I were talking about. I think we're written like 5x in direct what we used to write before we got started. So it's a 500% increase in direct, and those are big numbers. It's not off like writing one policy.

所以生產效率其實提高了。無論是直接代理還是獨立代理，我們都實現了顯著成長，我和馬裡奧剛才談到了這一點。我覺得我們現在寫的字數是以前寫的字數的五倍左右。所以直接收入成長了 500%，這可是個大數字。這不像寫一份保單那麼簡單。

And you can see that in the chart that Mario showed. The independent agent business, we also expanded quite rapidly. In part, there was, of course, because we bought National General because we were in the independent agent business, so we just weren't that good at it. So we bought them, they made us a lot better. We then expanded the nonstandard business by a number of states.

你可以在馬裡奧展示的圖表中看到這一點。獨立代理業務方面，我們也發展得相當迅速。當然，部分原因是因為我們收購了 National General，而我們之前是做獨立代理業務的，所以我們在這方面做得併不好。所以我們買了它們，它們讓我們變得更好了。隨後，我們將非標準業務擴展到了多個州。

So that drove some growth. And there's lots of room to grow in the independent agent channel as Jess has mentioned, with 360. So that's the overview. What would you -- is there something specific that you think you want to talk about relative to the quarter or maybe the prospects for IA?

所以這推動了一定的成長。正如 Jess 所提到的，獨立代理管道還有很大的發展空間，360 就是其中之一。以上就是概述。有什麼想談的嗎？關於本季或IA的前景，您有什麼具體想談的嗎？

I would focus on the prospects. I think specific to the quarter, we continue to see a really good balance across all distribution channels. So to your point Tom, I don't think focusing on one quarterly trend is as important as overall production and the balance that we get EA, IA and direct. A lot of the growth in the independent agent channel has been the higher risk drivers or non-standard.

我會把重點放在前景。我認為就本季而言，我們繼續看到所有分銷管道都保持著非常好的平衡。所以，湯姆，你說的沒錯，我認為關注某一季度的趨勢不如關注整體生產以及我們在EA、IA和直接銷售方面的平衡重要。獨立代理通路的許多成長都來自高風險或非標準業務。

And we're continuing to focus as we look into 2026, both rolling out the new Custom 360 product, but we're doing other things to make sure that we engage independent agents in the middle market standard and preferred segment, where we still believe there's a huge opportunity where we can compete with best-in-class products and engage them differently beyond just the high-risk drivers. And so I look at both the strength in production in Q4 is a positive, but I look forward to what we're doing in 2026 to continue to see growth in IA beyond the higher risk drivers segment.

展望 2026 年，我們將繼續專注於推出新的 Custom 360 產品，同時也在做其他事情，以確保我們能夠吸引中端市場標準和優選細分市場的獨立代理商，我們仍然相信在這個市場中存在著巨大的機會，我們可以與一流的產品競爭，並以不同於高風險駕駛員的方式與他們互動。因此，我認為第四季度生產強勁是一個積極的信號，但我更期待我們在 2026 年所做的事情，以繼續看到 IA 在高風險駕駛員群體之外的成長。

Maybe -- and this, I think, will tie together with Greg's comments and what Jess just said, which is competition. But let's go down to a state level. Let's take State A. And Jess has got a team working on that State A. And let's say that there's nobody that the exclusive agent competition doesn't really have much of a presence there. So we have -- we can hit hard on our exclusive agent presence, expand it and off we go.

也許——而且我認為，這與格雷格的評論和傑西剛才說的話有關，那就是競爭。但我們不妨把目光縮小到州一級。我們以A州為例。傑西有一個團隊負責A州的業務。假設獨家代理競爭在那裡並沒有太大的影響力。所以我們可以大力發展我們的獨家代理商，擴大規模，然後就可以出發了。

Let's say that we want to then compete with GEICO in that market, and we can ramp up our direct stuff. So we have -- and the same thing is true with independent agents. And once we broadened that portfolio to independent agents besides just being non-standard and having what are more traditional mainstream Custom 360 products.

假設我們想在這個市場與 GEICO 競爭，我們可以加大直接業務投入。所以我們有——對於獨立代理人也是如此。一旦我們將產品組合擴展到獨立代理商，而不僅僅是非標準產品和更傳統的主流客製化 360 產品。

So we have many ways to compete at an individual level with all the different carriers, and nobody has all those levers. That doesn't mean we're going to win in every state, doesn't mean everybody should go home. But it does mean we feel very comfortable about the balance of ways we have to compete from distribution, sophisticated pricing, really good advertising, low expenses. We have plenty of ways we can grow.

因此，我們有很多方法可以在個人層面上與所有不同的營運商競爭，但沒有人擁有所有這些手段。但這並不意味著我們會在每個州都獲勝，也不意味著每個人都應該回家。但這意味著我們對自身在分銷、合理的定價、優秀的廣告、低成本等方面的競爭優勢感到非常滿意。我們有很多發展途徑。

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

鮑勃·黃，摩根士丹利。

Hi, good morning. I want to throw a little bit of a curve ball here. Autonomous driving, it's been an increasingly more topical discussion. Just curious on you're seeing -- like your view on the pace of the technological development there and then how that could potentially impact personal auto, just from a -- like is it more of a threat? Is it more of an opportunity, how you're thinking about it, how you're positioning it? That's the first question.

您好，早安。我想在這裡拋出一個意想不到的話題。自動駕駛技術已成為越來越熱門的話題。我只是好奇你對那裡的技術發展速度有何看法，以及這可能會對個人汽車產生怎樣的潛在影響，例如，它是否構成更大的威脅？你覺得這更像是一個機會嗎？你是怎麼看待它的？你是怎麼定位它的？這是第一個問題。

So on autonomous driving, I would say it's a curveball we've been watching for about 15 years. And that's a good thing because we've been at it for 15 years. So we've been in telematics. We now have over 2 trillion miles of data you need that kind of data to be able to adjust to what autonomous driving can do and what different cars can do. So autonomous driving is, think of it as almost like safer driving.

所以關於自動駕駛，我想說這是一個我們已經觀察了大約 15 年的意想不到的問題。這是件好事，因為我們已經為此努力了15年。所以我們一直從事遠端資訊處理技術方面的工作。我們現在擁有超過 2 兆英里的數據，你需要這種數據來適應自動駕駛和不同汽車的功能。所以，自動駕駛可以理解為更安全的駕駛方式。

And so you have fully autonomous might be the safest because we take people completely out of it. But there are steps along the way. So you're seeing that in declines in frequency. And so whether that's the little light on the side of your side view mirror or that's the beep-beep thing when you're backing up for the camera, there's lots of things that have impacted frequency.

因此，完全自動駕駛可能是最安全的，因為我們完全將人們排除在外。但在過程中需要經歷一些步驟。所以你可以看到，頻率有所下降。所以，無論是側視鏡側邊的小燈，或是倒車時攝影機發出的嗶嗶聲，都有很多因素影響了頻率。

Now what that has also done though is increased severity because replacing all the equipment is not cheap. So as we've been modeling that out for 15 years, we've been watching it. We think there is potential that it will continue to get safer, frequency go down. We'll see what happens in severity. I think eventually, we'll figure out how to engineer these cars to not be as expensive as they are today.

但這樣做也加劇了問題的嚴重性，因為更換所有設備並不便宜。所以，在過去的15年裡，我們一直在模擬和觀察它。我們認為它有可能變得越來越安全，發生頻率也會降低。我們來看看病情嚴重程度會如何發展。我認為最終我們會找到辦法，讓這些汽車的成本不再像現在這麼高。

But in all that case, we feel like there's -- as long as we're ahead in pricing, we're very sophisticated. We're involved in telematics. We're watching the data, and then we'll be fine. In terms of the pace of change, One of the things that's different about this technology change than some other technology changes.

但無論如何，我們覺得只要我們在定價方面領先，我們就很有優勢。我們從事遠端資訊處理業務。我們正在密切關注數據，之後一切都會好起來的。就變革的速度而言，這項技術變革與其他一些技術變革的不同之處在於：

So if you go to like the software and AI and stuff like that, that can happen very rapidly. Here, you got $4 trillion in hardware, and you got a turnover that hardware. It doesn't mean the hardware can't be turned over. It just takes $4 trillion to do it, as opposed to I'm going to unplug this piece of software because I can use AI to program. So the pace of change will come, but it's at a curveball pace where you can watch it so you can hit it.

所以，如果你研究軟體、人工智慧之類的東西，這種情況可能會發生得非常快。這裡有價值 4 兆美元的硬件，而且這些硬體的營業額很高。但這並不意味著硬體不能轉讓。要實現這一點需要 4 兆美元，而不是像有些人那樣，因為我可以用人工智慧來編程，所以就把這個軟體拔掉。所以改變的步伐終會到來，但它的速度難以預測，你可以觀察它，以便應對它。

Got it. Really appreciate that. So as long as the curveball you're seeing, hopefully, is a home run . Maybe a follow-up on that severity point --

知道了。非常感謝。所以，只要你看到的曲球，希望是全壘打。。或許應該就這個嚴重性問題做個後續跟進。--

You're (inaudible) of our share price.

你（聽不清楚）影響了我們的股價。

Yes, for sure. But maybe on that severity point, right? Like if I look at your slide on essentially like the cost split between physical damage injury and expenses, obviously, bodily injury is about one-third of that. If we're believers that autonomous is going to reduce frequency. On the point of severity, shouldn't theoretically we see an improvement in severity. So is it like pretty immediately? Like how do you think about the parts cost versus the bodily injury component of that?

是的，當然。但或許在嚴重性這一點上是這樣，對吧？例如，如果我看一下你關於人身傷害和醫療費用之間成本分配的幻燈片，很明顯，人身傷害大約佔其中的三分之一。如果我們相信自動駕駛技術會降低事故發生頻率。就嚴重程度而言，理論上我們不應該看到嚴重程度有改善嗎？所以是很快就能見效嗎？你會如何權衡零件成本和人身傷害風險？

Autonomous cars?

自動駕駛汽車？

Yes, sir.

是的，先生。

Yes. Okay. Yes, I just want to make sure I got the question right. Actually, the severity goes up because you have fewer small fender benders, so you don't back into the pole when you're at the grocery store. And so you don't have $1,000. So that said, if you're going 75 miles an hour, the autonomous safe driving stuff doesn't really help much.

是的。好的。是的，我只是想確認一下我是否理解對了問題。實際上，嚴重程度會增加，因為你發生的輕微碰撞事故會減少，所以你在雜貨店倒車時不會撞到電線桿。所以你沒有1000美元。所以也就是說，如果你以每小時 75 英里的速度行駛，自動駕駛安全功能實際上並不會起到太大作用。

So we've actually seen the bodily injury severity go up. It's a little hard to parse and -- to do -- in fact, it's impossible to do attribution as to whether that's because people were driving faster. We know that from our telematics data that people are driving faster so there's more severe accidents.

所以，我們其實已經看到身體損傷的嚴重程度上升。這有點難以理解，而且——事實上——根本無法確定這是否是因為人們開車速度更快。我們從遠端資訊處理數據得知，人們的駕駛速度越來越快，因此發生的嚴重事故也越來越多。

But we can't say how much of the 50-some percent was due to that versus how much is just due to the fact that attorneys are very aggressive in getting to anybody who's been in an accident for anything and saying, I can represent you and give you some money, it doesn't cost you anything. So most people buy that. We have to figure out how we control that cost, but I can't give you an attribution of how much was because of runaway tort cost and how much is just people going faster and driving some more severe accidents.

但是我們無法確定這 50% 多一點的賠償金有多少是由於這個原因造成的，又有多少僅僅是因為律師們非常積極地聯繫任何發生事故的人，並說：“我可以代表你，給你一些錢，你不用花任何錢。”所以大多數人都會買。我們必須想辦法控制這筆費用，但我無法告訴你其中有多少是由於侵權訴訟費用失控造成的，又有多少是由於人們超速行駛和發生更嚴重的交通事故造成的。

Okay. Thank you very much. I really appreciate that.

好的。非常感謝。我非常感謝。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊莉絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

Hi, thanks. My first question on -- I just wanted to start with capital. You guys announced a new buyback program that's higher than the last authorization. So just trying to get a sense of is the priority now just to take excess capital and use it for share repurchase? Or are you -- is M&A, I guess, further down the list in terms of capital priorities right now? Just looking to get an update there?

您好，謝謝。我的第一個問題是──我只想從資金開始。你們宣布了一項新的回購計劃，金額比上次授權的還要高。所以，我只是想了解一下，目前的首要任務是不是就是將多餘的資金用於股票回購？或者說－我猜想，就目前的資本優先事項而言，併購的優先順序比較低？只是想了解那邊的最新狀況？

The priority, Elyse -- sorry, I'm hearing an echo. The priority, Elyse would be to maximize the amount of money we create for shareholders from that capital. And first is just organic growth. So we look at capital first, just start to grow auto home, get the multiple rerate that should drive the stock up just on the multiple rerate forget the fact that you're earning more money on capital, and we're getting exceptionally high returns in our business as you could see here.

首要任務，伊莉絲——抱歉，我聽到了迴響。伊莉絲，首要任務是最大限度地利用這些資本為股東創造收益。首先是自然增長。所以我們首先關注資本，開始發展汽車和房屋業務，獲得倍數重估，這應該會推高股價，僅僅因為倍數重估就應該如此，先別管你從資本中賺了多少錢，正如你在這裡看到的，我們的業務獲得了異常高的回報。

Will it always be at a three on it, No. But is that still way higher than the S&P 500, 100%. So we feel very good about the organic growth in that driving business. Second, then we say, well, what are the things, where are we a better owner of a business. So when we bought SquareTrade, we were a better owner, and they were better for us when we bought National General, we were a better owner.

它會一直維持在三嗎？不會。但這仍然比標普500指數高出100%。因此，我們對該驅動業務的自然成長感到非常滿意。其次，我們會問，那麼，我們應該做些什麼，才能更好地經營企業。所以當我們收購 SquareTrade 時，我們成為了更好的所有者；而當我們收購 National General 時，他們也為我們帶來了好處，我們成為了更好的所有者。

And that's where we're leveraging our skills, our capabilities. And then we say, okay, well, where are we in capital, we are long capital now? We think with the $4 billion share repurchase, we're still long capital. We have plenty of capital. We've always had a lot of capital. And we feel like this is a way to give that cash back to shareholders so they can deploy it in a way that gives them the kind of returns we're able to get with somebody else.

而這正是我們發揮自身技能和能力的地方。然後我們說，好吧，那麼我們的資本狀況如何？我們現在是多頭資本嗎？我們認為，透過40億美元的股票回購，我們仍然持有大量資本。我們資金充足。我們一直擁有大量資金。我們認為這是將現金返還給股東的一種方式，這樣他們就可以以能夠帶來我們透過其他途徑獲得的收益的方式來運用這些資金。

If we think we can get higher than that, we will. But we also think the stock is so cheap that it's like a really good deal for those shareholders who want to hang with us. And you can increase your ownership and as John pointed out, we've helped people, those people will stay with us to increase your ownership, dramatically. And since I've been here, I think we've bought back over 80% of the share. So we're happy that those people want to sell, then that's fine. Those who believe in the story, we think there's huge shareholder returns coming here.

如果我們認為可以取得更高的成就，我們就會去做。但我們也認為，這支股票價格非常便宜，對於那些想和我們一起投資的股東來說，這真是一筆非常划算的交易。而且你可以增加你的所有權，正如約翰指出的那樣，我們已經幫助人們，這些人會繼續和我們在一起，從而大幅增加你的所有權。自從我來到這裡以來，我認為我們已經回購了超過 80% 的股份。所以，如果這些人想賣，我們很高興，那就沒問題。相信這個故事的人，我們認為股東將獲得巨額回報。

And then my follow-up question, in auto, right, the average gross premiums written per policy turned negative in the fourth quarter. I know you guys have been taking less price, right, but there's still been positive price running through the book, right, if I look at the disclosure in the supplement. So I'm just trying to tie those two figures? And then just more color on why that premiums written inflected negatively in the quarter.

然後我的後續問題是，在汽車保險方面，對吧，每份保單的平均毛保費在第四季度變成了負數。我知道你們一直在降低發行價格，對吧，但是如果我看一下補充披露信息，就會發現發行價格仍然保持正增長。所以我只是想把這兩個數字連結起來？然後進一步解釋了為什麼本季保費收入出現負成長。

It's a complicated piece of analysis to do because you have both the rates you talked about. You also have the mix, the coverages, the state levels and so if you look at what a nonstandard policy generates versus standard, so it's complicated. But I think where you're going is what should you be thinking about in terms of profitability, we would say the average premiums going down.

這是一個複雜的分析，因為你既要考慮你剛才提到的那些利率。此外，還要考慮各種因素，例如保險範圍、州級保險等等，所以如果你比較一下非標準保單和標準保單的收益，情況就很複雜了。但我認為，你現在應該考慮的是獲利能力方面的問題，我們認為平均保費會下降。

And I would say, I would go back to the slide that Jess showed, where we reduced prices this year by over $800 million in this year. We still earn great returns. So we're focused on giving customers the most affordable price we can and still getting our target margins. We obviously had a combined ratio that was better than our target margin this year. So do I think that the combined ratio will drift up over time? Yes. And that's because we're going to grow faster.

我想說，我想回到傑西展示的那張幻燈片，上面顯示我們今年已經減價超過 8 億美元。我們仍然能獲得豐厚的回報。因此，我們致力於為客戶提供最實惠的價格，同時也實現我們的目標利潤率。顯然，我們今年的綜合利潤率優於我們的目標利潤率。所以我認為綜合比率會隨著時間而上升嗎？是的。那是因為我們的發展速度會更快。

Joshua Shanker, Bank of America.

Joshua Shanker，美國銀行。

Yes. Thank you. Elyse was super smart asking the first part of my question, but I wanted to go into the second part. One thought that I had is maybe premium per policy is coming down because of Allstate's flexibility and maybe people are buying down coverage, I want to know if that's true.

是的。謝謝。伊莉絲問出了我問題的第一部分，她非常聰明，但我還想探討第二部分。我想到一個可能的原因，那就是由於Allstate的靈活性，保費可能會下降，人們可能會降低保額，我想知道這是否屬實。

And if that's true, does that help retention, which has been weak, and it doesn't seem to be necessarily getting better so far. I guess it's a bit complicated. Is there something to that effect going on?

如果情況屬實，這是否有助於提高用戶留存率？用戶留存率一直很低，而且到目前為止似乎並沒有好轉的跡象。我覺得這有點複雜。是否發生了類似的事情？

Let me address a couple of points and maybe Jess and Mario you want to jump in here. First, I would just -- and maybe this is defensive, but I wouldn't call our retention weak. I would say compared to some of the other companies and it's better. Other places, it's not as good. Like I'd like to have some other company's retention as well. But we are working our retention.

讓我談談幾點，也許傑西和馬裡奧也想插句話。首先，我想說──也許這有點辯解的意思，但我不會說我們的客戶留存率很低。我覺得它比其他一些公司好。其他地方就沒那麼好了。我也想藉鏡其他公司的一些客戶留存策略。但我們正在努力提高客戶留存率。

You are correct in that price does impact retention, which is why we went back and did the SAVE program. And we'll do the SAVE program again this year. We're very happy with these results. We also have an effort coming up, which is to move people from what we would call our classic Allstate brand products, those pre-affordable simple connected and move them into affordable simple connected, which we think will also help us from a lifetime value retention.

您說得對，價格確實會影響客戶留存率，所以我們才重新推出了 SAVE 方案。今年我們將繼續進行SAVE計畫。我們對這些結果非常滿意。我們還有一項即將開展的工作，那就是將人們從我們所謂的經典 Allstate 品牌產品（即價格實惠、簡單便捷的互聯保險）轉移到價格實惠、簡單便捷的互聯保險，我們認為這也有助於我們實現終身價值保留。

It might mess up the numbers a little bit because somebody shows up at a different stuff, but we are focused on trying to improve retention to that point. Coverage does matter. We want our customers to have the right amount of coverage, not too little, not too much. The SAVE program helps us go back to and say, hey, what's different in your life. Is your teenager no longer at home?

這可能會稍微影響數據，因為有人可能會參加其他活動，但我們目前專注於提高留存率。覆蓋範圍確實很重要。我們希望我們的客戶獲得適量的保障，既不能太少，也不能太多。SAVE 計畫幫助我們回顧過去，問問自己：嘿，你的生活發生了哪些變化？你的孩子不在家了嗎？

Do you have a different car? Do you want to have a higher deductible? Do you need lower limits because of where you're at now in terms of financial position? So it does make a difference. But we -- so, for example, we have found in the direct channel in one particular state that high net worth people are still buying lower coverage because that's what they want. They can choose. And we've had good growth as a result. So coverage is a good tool, but you want to make sure you're serving the customer as well. Anything you guys would to that?

你有別的車嗎？你想提高自付額嗎？鑑於您目前的財務狀況，您是否需要降低信用額度？所以這確實會產生影響。但是，例如，我們在某個特定州的直接管道中發現，高淨值人士仍然購買較低的保險範圍，因為這就是他們想要的。他們可以自由選擇。因此，我們取得了良好的成長。所以，覆蓋範圍固然重要，但你也要確保為客戶提供服務。你們有什麼建議嗎？

I mean I would double down that the essence of SAVE was to do exactly what you described, right? So it's to look at coverages, look at available discounts, that's going to drive down average premium, but we're adjusting the risk and we're putting the policy terms what -- where it makes sense for our customers. And so in 7.8 million customers save more than 5%. They saved on average of 17%, and that's through exactly what you're getting at. I think it's really, again, getting at the essence of what that program was meant to do.

我的意思是，我完全同意 SAVE 的本質就是你所描述的那樣，對吧？所以，我們要專注於保險範圍，專注於可用的折扣，這將降低平均保費，但我們正在調整風險，並將保單條款放在對我們的客戶來說合理的位置。因此，780萬客戶節省了超過5%。他們平均節省了 17%，這正是你所說的。我認為這再次真正觸及了該項目旨在實現的本質。

And if we go back to where we were in 4Q, so we just showed this slide of $800 million of reduction in premium and I know you all know this, but keep in mind that that's different than what we're doing rate increases, and we showed you the rate increases coming through. In this case, your loss costs were down some too. So it's not dollar for dollar that you lose that in bottom line.

如果我們回到第四季度的情況，就像我們剛才展示的這張投影片一樣，保費減少了 8 億美元，我知道你們都知道這一點，但請記住，這和我們正在進行的費率上漲是不同的，我們已經向你們展示了即將實施的費率上漲。在這種情況下，您的損失成本也有所下降。所以，損失的金額並不是用美元對美元計算的。

So I wanted -- you said that retention is good, and maybe it is, but I have a theory that I want to play out here that we're not going back to the retentions of the pre-pandemic era that the shopping behaviors have permanently changed because affordable and connected works so well that people can constantly change their price and change their coverages and that means go into different auto insurers. Are we in a new future where retentions are naturally going to be lower than they've been in the past?

所以我想說——你說過客戶留存率是好事，也許是這樣，但我有一個理論想在這裡闡述一下，那就是我們不會回到疫情前的留存率，購物行為已經永久改變了，因為價格實惠且互聯互通的服務非常好，人們可以不斷地改變價格和保險範圍，這意味著他們會去不同的汽車。我們是否正處於一個用戶留存率自然會低於以往水準的新未來？

Shopping is up and not everybody who shops switches, but shopping is up. So I would say, yes, you would expect to see retention. The -- and -- so I think that's true. The question is how many of them do you keep, and that's what happens in the industry. So building an ongoing connection. So the connected part should not be underlooked, SAVE is part of being connected. So if you feel like you have a relationship, you're much less likely to shop. I would point out a couple of other things.

購物量上升了，雖然不是所有購物的人都會改變購物習慣，但購物量確實上升了。所以我認為，是的，你會看到留存率上升。所以——而且——我認為這是真的。問題是你要保留多少，而這正是產業內發生的事情。所以，要建立持續的聯繫。所以連線部分不容忽視，SAVE 是連線的一部分。所以，如果你覺得你和商店建立了某種關係，你就不太可能去購物。我還要指出另外幾點。

One, while shopping is up, our new business is up much bigger than that, which shows that our advertising and broad distribution are working in this competitive environment. So even though people are shopping more, we got more places they can go, and we're more sophisticated about it. And I would just come back to one thing. I said retention wasn't weak. It's not as good as I want it to be, and that's a message for our team, less than you.

第一，雖然購物量有所上升，但我們的新業務成長幅度更大，這表明我們的廣告和廣泛分銷在這種競爭激烈的環境中發揮了作用。所以，儘管人們購物的次數變多了，我們有了更多可以去的地方，而且我們也變得更成熟了。我最終只會回到一件事。我說過，客戶留存率並不低。它沒有達到我的預期，這主要是想對我們的團隊說，而不是對你們說。

Michael Zaremski, BMO.

Michael Zaremski，BMO。

Hey, great, good morning, I wanted to maybe focus on slide 10 auto claims process improvements, which have clearly been supporting profitability in a big way. Maybe high level, you've been working on auto claim process improvements for many years now. Just trying to understand what baseball inning are we in.

嘿，早上好，我想重點談談第 10 張投影片，即汽車理賠流程改進，這些改進顯然極大地提高了盈利能力。或許從高層角度來說，您多年來一直致力於汽車理賠流程的改進。我只是想弄清楚現在是棒球比賽的第幾局。

AI, I'm sure, is helping it. Is it -- will the benefits -- are they -- is Allstate more of a first mover? Or is it proprietary to you all? Are you using third parties and the industry will eventually catch up over time? Just trying to understand where we are on the journey.

我相信，人工智慧正在幫助解決這個問題。是嗎？ ——會有好處嗎？ ——Allstate 是否更像先行者？還是說這是你們的專有技術？你目前使用的是第三方服務，而業界最終會隨著時間的推移迎頭趕上嗎？只是想了解我們現在的位置。

So this is Jess. I would like the baseball innings analogy. You have to pause on that one and figure out exactly where, I would put us middle innings in the journey, certainly not early innings, but not done. I think there's a lot that -- and we have a large best-in-class claims organization that's really focused on the right things, as you could see on the page in the slide deck. That doesn't mean we fully implemented all of the AI-enabled technologies. It doesn't mean that we're not going to continue to focus on quality.

這位是傑西。我喜歡用棒球局數來做比喻。你必須停下來仔細想想，弄清楚我們究竟處於旅程的哪個階段。我會把我們放在旅程的中期，當然不是早期，但還沒結束。我認為有很多方面可以做到——而且我們擁有一個規模龐大、一流的理賠機構，它真正專注於正確的事情，正如你在幻燈片中看到的那樣。但這並不意味著我們已經完全實施了所有人工智慧技術。但這並不意味著我們將不再注重品質。

We have great leadership that is going to continue to sort of push along the journey of getting even better and lowering those costs. If I look competitively, you mentioned is that largely outsourced, is it something that others will catch up on? I don't believe it is. This is proprietary to Allstate. We're not leveraging third-party insights or technology.

我們擁有優秀的領導團隊，他們將繼續推動我們不斷進步，降低成本。如果從競爭的角度來看，你提到這方面很大程度是外包的，其他公司會迎頭趕上嗎？我不認為是這樣。這是Allstate的專有技術。我們沒有利用第三方洞察或技術。

We obviously bring the outside in when we look at third-party trends to make decisions, but it's not like -- this is something someone else can pick up and buy from another vendor. This is our organization pushing for operational excellence, for claims quality and continuing to sort of focus on how we can be better each and every year. So I would put it middle innings with the later innings, probably being where you really see the benefit of artificial intelligence and the insights and tools that we can use to improve in the claims organization. Is that helpful?

我們顯然會參考外部因素來做決策，例如參考第三方趨勢，但這並不意味著其他人可以從其他供應商購買到相同的東西。這是我們組織為追求卓越營運、提高理賠品質而持續努力的方向，我們將持續關注如何才能每年都做得更好。所以我認為應該把比賽進行到中局，而到了後半段，人工智慧的優勢以及我們可以用來改進理賠機構的洞察力和工具可能會真正顯現出來。這樣有幫助嗎？

Yes. I guess I'm just -- I guess I asked not trying to spoonfeed because the underlying loss ratio true-up. I guess some investors are saying it's too good to be true. But clearly, some of it's just -- you guys are doing a better job than others. So --

是的。我想我問這個問題並不是想手把手地教你，而是因為實際的損失率確實如此。我想有些投資者會說這好得令人難以置信。但很顯然，有些方面只是──你們比其他人做得更好。所以--

I think about claims -- I think of claims kind of as a river of money. And at the top, you have us and at the bottom you have the customers, and we have to get them the money. So if it goes down the river lots of people dip into the river and like to take money out. So it's -- and it's constantly changing, like the banks are changing.

我認為索賠就像一條金錢的河流。頂端是我們，底端是顧客，而我們必須讓他們賺錢。所以，如果河水順流而下，很多人會跳進河裡，想把錢拿出來。所以，情況是——而且它一直在變化，就像銀行也在變化一樣。

So where the banks are and the rocks that goes over, and so you get attorneys who are doing something new. You've got car companies who decide they want to give away the razor and sell the blade and sell their parts a lot higher. So you just -- you're constantly adapting. So I think Jesse is right here. This is like the never-ending game, right?

所以，銀行所在的地方，以及翻越的岩石，都會影響到律師，因此你會遇到一些正在做新事情的律師。有些汽車公司決定免費贈送刮鬍刀，只出售刀片，然後以更高的價格出售零件。所以你只能－－不斷地適應。所以我認為傑西說得對。這就像一場永無止境的遊戲，對吧？

And the question is, is your team good? Do they have the processes? Do they have the data, do they have the measurement and the discipline to do what you need to do. And we're good at it. Did we have to get better at it because of what happened in the pandemic? Yes. because when prices go up that rapidly, the old way in which you control the river, it has to be different. So I think it's just -- it's an ongoing thing. And so you're buying capabilities at claims as opposed to a specific set of processes.

問題是，你的團隊夠好嗎？他們有相關流程嗎？他們有數據嗎？他們有測量方法和紀律來完成你需要做的事情嗎？而且我們很擅長這件事。我們是否因為疫情期間發生的事情而需要在這方面做得更好？是的。因為當價格上漲如此迅速時，過去控制河流的方式必須改變。所以我認為這只是一個持續存在的問題。因此，您購買的是理賠能力，而不是一套特定的流程。

That's helpful. And my follow-up, I think slide 4 of the deck talking about kind of what really could spend the needle on affordability. I think as an insurance specialists, we get it. But I'm just the powers that be don't always see, the forests for the trees in the short run. So just curious, are there other potential legislative changes in certain states that if things were enacted, and I'm sure you all in APCIA are in discussions with those folks.

那很有幫助。我的後續發言，我認為是投影片 4，討論的是真正能提高可負擔性的因素。我想身為保險專家，我們都能理解。但我只是覺得，當權者往往只見樹木不見森林，短期內難以看清全局。所以我很好奇，某些州是否還有其他潛在的立法變更，如果這些變更獲得通過，我相信APCIA的各位都在與相關人士進行討論。

But if they were enacted, that could -- would change the course of your strategy or not just you all, but the industry in a material way? Or is this more kind of noise that ebbs and flows as now we're in a softer market and things should ebb as affordability gets better?

但如果這些措施得以實施，可能會——不僅會改變你們所有人的戰略方向，還會從根本上改變整個產業？或者這只是市場疲軟時期的一種波動，隨著購買力的提高，這種波動也會跟著減弱？

Well, affordability is a real issue for every politician these days, whether they're talking about food or insurance we tend not to be on the highest order of what people think about in terms of affordability there. But it is important to them, and it has become more important as costs have gone up. I think the blow for freedom for consumers is tort reform.

如今，對每位政治人物來說，價格負擔能力都是一個真正的問題。無論他們談論的是食品還是保險，當人們考慮價格承受能力時，我們往往都不是優先考慮的因素。但這對他們來說很重要，而且隨著成本的上升，這一點變得更加重要。我認為，對消費者自由而言，侵權法改革是重大打擊。

It's just about time that -- and you're starting to see some states take it on, states that I would have said 10 years ago, we're more controlled by the plaintiff bar than they appear to be today. And I gave the example of Florida, great moves. I like what they're doing in Louisiana. George is doing some things.

差不多該是這樣了——而且你開始看到一些州開始著手解決這個問題，這些州，我十年前會說，我們比現在看起來更容易受到原告律師的控制。我舉了佛羅裡達州的例子，他們採取的措施非常出色。我喜歡他們在路易斯安那州所做的一切。喬治正在做一些事情。

Politicians are smart, like they know how to do it. And so if they're looking at the same chart, they're going to say, okay, my voters want cheaper insurance how am I going to get it for them. And they might not think about a 10-year cycle, but they're certainly going to think about a 4- or 5-year cycle. And this is one where it can make a difference really fast.

政客都很聰明，好像知道該怎麼做。因此，如果他們查看的是同一張圖表，他們會說，好吧，我的選民想要更便宜的保險，我該如何為他們爭取呢？他們可能不會考慮 10 年周期，但他們肯定會考慮 4 年或 5 年周期。而這件事，它確實能迅速產生影響。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Hey, thanks, for fitting me in here. Just a question on slide 11, sort of on just New York and New Jersey, where that fits into these different buckets here in terms of how much I think those were a drag. I'm assuming those are still a drag. I'm wondering how much? And then also, I think last quarter, you had mentioned considering opening up underwriting guidelines there further even without getting the new product approved? I'm wondering where you guys are at there.

嘿，謝謝你們抽空讓我來這裡。關於第 11 張投影片，我有個問題，主要是關於紐約和新澤西，就我認為它們在多大程度上拖累了人民而言，它們在這些不同的類別中處於什麼位置。我猜那些東西還是很礙事。我想知道具體金額是多少？而且，我記得上個季度您也提到過，即使新產品尚未獲得批准，也要考慮進一步放寬承保準則？我想知道你們那邊的情況。

I'll make an overall comment. Jess can talk about what's going on in New Jersey, New York, First, we don't identify our problem children nor do we do performance and do valuations in public. So we're not going to call out like which States are in which category. And we also don't necessarily want to let our competitors know where we're not growing as well. But that said, those are 2 states, which we've talked about before, you're correct that we need to move to more growth. So do you want to talk about what's going on in New Jersey and New York?

我來做個總體評價。傑西可以談談新澤西州、紐約州正在發生的事情。首先，我們不會公開指出我們的問題學生，也不會公開進行績效評估和估值。所以我們不會具體指出哪些州屬於哪一類。而且我們也不一定想讓競爭對手知道我們在哪些方面成長緩慢。但話雖如此，那隻是我們之前討論過的兩個州，你說得對，我們需要朝著更大的成長邁進。那麼，你想聊聊新澤西州和紐約州正在發生的事情嗎？

Yes. I think the headline in both states is we're making money in those states, which is a good thing, not growing, but we're making money that is step one. We have, as you mentioned, loosened up some of our underwriting restrictions. But the key to getting back to growth in both New York and New Jersey is new product approvals, specifically our affordable, simple and connected product, which will allow us to really open up the best product in market and get back to growth.

是的。我認為這兩個州的頭條新聞都是我們在這些州賺錢了，這是一件好事，而不是成長，但我們賺錢了，這是第一步。正如您所提到的，我們已經放寬了一些承保限制。但紐約和新澤西恢復成長的關鍵在於新產品的審批，特別是我們價格實惠、簡單易用且互聯互通的產品，這將使我們能夠真正推出市場上最好的產品，並恢復成長。

On the plus side, New Jersey, we recently got approval for implementation of the ASC product, ASC Auto product in February. So we're going to be with the new product in market. Now that takes some time, obviously, to get momentum, but that's a very positive sign in the state of New Jersey. New York, we're waiting for approval for the ASC products. So we'll be a little bit slower. We're hopeful that we will see that relatively soon.

好消息是，新澤西州最近在二月批准了 ASC 產品和 ASC Auto 產品的實施。所以我們將帶著新產品上市。當然，這需要一些時間才能形成勢頭，但這對新澤西州來說是一個非常積極的信號。紐約，我們正在等待ASC產品的批准。所以我們會慢一點。我們希望不久的將來就能看到這種情況。

We're actively engaged with the department and answering questions, but that's going to be critical to us getting back to a growth trajectory in the state of New York. So we're working hard with the regulators to get our products approved so we can get the best solutions to customers. And in the meantime, we are back to making profit in those states. So that's kind of where we're at.

我們正在積極與相關部門溝通並回答問題，但這對於我們在紐約州重回成長軌道至關重要。因此，我們正在努力與監管機構合作，爭取產品獲得批准，以便為客戶提供最佳解決方案。同時，我們在這些州又開始獲利了。這就是我們目前的狀況。

So first, thank you for spending time with us. We're going to keep creating value for both our customers and our shareholders. It's a combination of an aggressive growth strategy and great operational execution. So we'll talk in next quarter.

首先，感謝您抽空與我們交流。我們將繼續為客戶和股東創造價值。這是積極進取的成長策略和出色營運執行的結合。那我們下個季度再談。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

感謝各位女士、先生參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。再會。