Allstate Corp (ALL) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Allstate's third quarter earnings investor call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, please be aware that this call is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Allister Gobin, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加Allstate第三季財報投資者電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒您，本次通話正在錄音。現在，我謹向大家介紹今天節目的主持人，投資人關係主管 Allister Gobin。請繼續，先生。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Allstate's third quarter 2025 earnings call. Yesterday, following the close of the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement, filed our 10-Q and have posted a related materials on our website at allstateinvestors.com. Today, our management team will discuss how Allstate is creating shareholder value. Then we will open the line for your questions.

各位早安。歡迎參加Allstate 2025年第三季財報電話會議。昨天收盤後，我們發布了新聞稿和投資者補充文件，提交了10-Q季報告，並將相關資料發佈在公司網站allstateinvestors.com上。今天，我們的管理團隊將探討Allstate如何為股東創造價值。接下來我們將開放提問通道。

As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will include non-GAAP measures for which there are reconciliations are provided in the news release and investor supplement. We will also make forward-looking statements about Allstate's operations. Actual results may differ materially from those statements, so please refer to our 2024 10-K and other public filings for more information on potential risks.

如簡報第一張投影片所述，我們的討論將包括非GAAP指標，相關調整資訊已在新聞稿和投資者補充文件中提供。我們也將對Allstate的營運情況做出前瞻性聲明。實際結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，因此請參閱我們的 2024 年 10-K 報告和其他公開文件，以了解更多有關潛在風險的資訊。

And now I'll turn it over to Tom.

現在我把麥克風交給湯姆。

Good morning. Thank you for investing time in Allstate today. Let's start with slide 2. Allstate's strategy has two components, which are shown on the left, increased personal profit liability market share and expand protection provided to customers. Our strong operating results in the third quarter are shown on the right.

早安.感謝您今天抽出時間了解Allstate。讓我們從第二張投影片開始。Allstate 的策略包含兩個組成部分，如左圖所示：提高個人利潤責任險市場佔有率和擴大為客戶提供的保障。如右圖所示，我們第三季的強勁經營業績。

So revenues increased to $17.3 billion. Policies in force increased to 209.5 million as we broadened our protection offerings and grow the property liability business. Net income was $3.7 billion. Adjusted net income was $3 billion or $11.17 per share, and that resulted from a number of things strong profitability results, modest catastrophe losses, higher investment income and favorable insurance basis -- sorry, insurance reserve releases.

因此，營收成長至173億美元。隨著我們擴大保障產品範圍和發展財產責任業務，有效保單數量增加到 2.095 億份。淨收入為37億美元。調整後的淨收入為 30 億美元，即每股 11.17 美元，這得益於多方面因素，包括強勁的盈利能力、適度的巨災損失、更高的投資收益以及有利的保險基礎——抱歉，是保險準備金的釋放。

The return on equity for the last 12 months was 34.7%. The drivers behind these outstanding results include operational excellence, which is really good at protection. The transformative growth initiative is increasing profitable growth, enterprise risk and return management for investments creates additional value and then all of that just generates substantial capital. So let's coverage transformative growth and how that positions us for continued success to slide 3.

過去 12 個月的股本回報率為 34.7%。這些卓越成果背後的驅動因素包括卓越的運營，這在保護方面確實非常出色。變革性成長計畫正在提高獲利成長，企業風險和投資回報管理創造額外價值，而所有這些都將產生大量資本。那麼，讓我們在第 3 張投影片中討論變革性成長以及這種成長如何使我們持續成功。

Transformative growth is the initiative we started about six years ago and was designed to increase property liability market share. And it has five components and five phases and we're now in Phase 4, which is rolling out the new system.

變革性成長是我們大約六年前啟動的一項計劃，旨在提高財產責任險市場份額。它包含五個組成部分和五個階段，我們現在處於第四階段，即推出新系統。

The price for protection is obviously critically important to customers, so we reduce costs so we can provide more value without impacting margins. We've reduced the expense ratio by 6.7 points, but we're not done yet. To increase market share, we also need to expand customer access by broadening distribution beyond Allstate agents.

對客戶而言，保障價格顯然至關重要，因此我們降低成本，以便在不影響利潤率的情況下提供更多價值。我們已將費用率降低了 6.7 個百分點，但我們還沒有完成。為了提高市場份額，我們還需要擴大客戶覆蓋範圍，將分銷管道拓展到 Allstate 代理商之外。

This year, auto insurance new business is evenly split between Allstate agents, independent agents and direct from the company, and all three channels have increased like we didn't get there by making one channel smaller.

今年，汽車保險新業務在 Allstate 代理商、獨立代理商和公司直接銷售管道之間平均分配，而且這三個管道的業務量都增加了，這並非因為我們縮減了其中一個管道的規模。

Increasing customer value with new affordable and simple connection products has also been a driver of growth. And significant progress has also been in improving customer service. So we've improved over 46 million customer interactions this year and a high priority for us is to further expand the SAVE program for auto and home insurance customers, which has helped over 5 million customers reduced their premiums by more than 5%.

透過推出價格實惠、操作簡單的新型連結產品來提升顧客價值，也是推動成長的因素之一。在提升客戶服務方面也取得了顯著進展。今年我們改善了超過 4,600 萬次客戶互動，我們的首要任務是進一步擴大面向汽車和房屋保險客戶的 SAVE 計劃，該計劃已幫助超過 500 萬客戶將保費降低了 5% 以上。

These four elements require increased sophistication and investment in customer acquisition, and we're really good at that and the new technology ecosystem. The new technology ecosystem enables us -- is going to enable us to use applied artificial intelligence, which is shown on slide 4.

這四個要素需要提升客戶獲取方面的技巧和投入，而我們在這方面以及新的技術生態系統都非常擅長。新的技術生態系統使我們能夠——將會使我們能夠使用應用人工智慧，這在第 4 張幻燈片中有所展示。

This begins with generative AI, which helps improve the efficiency and effectiveness operations. I'd like to describe this as the Keds sneakers commercial. If you might remember, it's run faster, jump higher. It is quite a good thing.

這始於生成式人工智慧，它有助於提高營運效率和效果。我想把它比作 Keds 運動鞋的廣告。如果你還記得的話，那就是跑得更快，跳得更高。這是一件相當不錯的事。

As you can see, there are many examples where that's adding value today. It's being used to simplify billing explanations for customers and reducing the number of billing inquiries we did. And the Claims operation, all the adjuster e-mails are generated or reviewed by AI. 15% of our coding is done by AI, and it's also being implemented and used in actuarial financial work to reduce costs and accelerate our go-to-market strategies.

正如你所看到的，如今有許多例子顯示這樣做能創造價值。它用於簡化客戶的帳單說明，並減少我們處理的帳單查詢數量。在理賠業務方面，所有理賠員的電子郵件都是由人工智慧產生或審核的。我們15%的編碼工作都由人工智慧完成，而人工智慧也被應用於精算財務工作中，以降低成本並加速我們的市場推廣策略。

The next frontier is at the top of the slide, which is agentic AI, and that holds even greater promise. It allows us to reimagine customer value across the entire business model, from the offerings, the service, the communications, how we make growth investments and how we settle claims.

下一個前沿領域位於滑梯的頂端，也就是智慧體人工智慧，它擁有更大的發展前景。它使我們能夠重新構想整個商業模式中的客戶價值，包括產品、服務、溝通、成長投資方式以及理賠方式。

Now to make that a reality, we're designing and building Allstate's large language intelligent ecosystem or ALLIE. We wanted to name it and personify because these agents are like employees is they're capable of reasoning and resolving test lower costs and improve the customer experience. ALLIE will position us for continued growth in market share and expansion of protection provided to customers.

為了實現這一目標，我們正在設計和建構 Allstate 的大型語言智慧生態系統（ALLIE）。我們想為它命名並擬人化，因為這些代理商就像員工一樣，他們能夠推理和解決測試問題，降低成本並改善客戶體驗。ALLIE 將使我們在市場佔有率方面持續成長，並擴大為客戶提供的保障範圍。

Now Mario will cover the third quarter results in more detail.

接下來，馬裡奧將更詳細地介紹第三季業績。

Thanks, Tom. Let's turn to slide 5 for an overview of third quarter results. Allstate's strong operating capabilities delivered profitable growth and excellent returns in the quarter and through the first nine months of 2025.

謝謝你，湯姆。讓我們翻到第 5 張投影片，了解一下第三季的業績概覽。憑藉強大的營運能力，Allstate 在本季以及 2025 年前九個月實現了獲利成長和優異的回報。

Total year-to-date revenues increased 5.8% from the prior year to $50.3 billion, driven by strong performance across the enterprise including property liability premiums that were up 6.1% in the third quarter and 7.4% for the first nine months of the year, reflecting higher average premiums and policy in force growth.

今年迄今的總收入比上年增長了 5.8%，達到 503 億美元，這得益於整個企業的強勁表現，包括財產責任保險保費，第三季度增長了 6.1%，前九個月增長了 7.4%，反映出平均保費和有效保單數量的增長。

Protection Services profitably grew with premiums up 12.7% compared to the third quarter of 2024, driven by protection plans. Net investment income was $949 million in the third quarter, representing a 21.2% increase over the prior year quarter. Total policies in force grew to 209.5 million, an increase of 3.8% compared to the prior year quarter.

保障服務業務獲利成長，保費收入較 2024 年第三季成長 12.7%，主要得益於保障計畫的推動。第三季淨投資收益為 9.49 億美元，較上年同期成長 21.2%。有效保單總數增至 2.095 億份，較上年同期成長 3.8%。

In the third quarter, net income was $3.7 billion, and through the first nine months of 2025, net income applicable to common shareholders was $6.4 billion. Adjusted net income was $3 billion or $11.17 per diluted share in the third quarter, reflecting strong property liability underwriting profit and higher investment income. Adjusted net income return on equity was 34.7% over the last 12 months.

第三季淨收入為 37 億美元，2025 年前九個月歸屬於普通股股東的淨收入為 64 億美元。第三季經調整後的淨收入為 30 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 11.17 美元，這反映了強勁的財產責任承保利潤和更高的投資收益。過去 12 個月的調整後淨利權益報酬率為 34.7%。

Moving to slide 6. Let's discuss our objective of consistently delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns for shareholders. As a reminder, we manage profitability by line and by market. In auto insurance, we target a mid-90s reported combined ratio.

切換到第6張投影片。讓我們來探討一下我們持續為股東帶來具有吸引力的風險調整後回報的目標。再次提醒，我們按產品線和市場管理獲利能力。在汽車保險方面，我們的目標是將報告的綜合比率控制在 90% 以上。

Over the last decade, outside of the unprecedented inflationary period, the industry experienced following the COVID-19 pandemic Allstate has consistently achieved these targeted levels of profitability. We have responded quickly and decisively to periods of increased loss cost inflation like higher auto accident frequency in 2015 and 2016 and higher post-COVID severity.

過去十年，除了新冠疫情后保險業經歷的空前通膨時期外，Allstate 一直保持著這些既定的獲利目標。對於 2015 年和 2016 年汽車事故發生頻率較高以及新冠疫情後傷亡人數增加等損失成本上漲時期，我們做出了迅速而果斷的回應。

As a result, the combined ratio has averaged 94.9% over the last 10 years. The homeowners business is a competitive advantage for Allstate. In homeowners insurance, we target a low 90s reported combined ratio and an underlying combined ratio in the low to mid-60s.

因此，過去 10 年的綜合比率平均為 94.9%。房主業務是Allstate的競爭優勢。在房屋保險方面，我們的目標是將報告的綜合比率控制在 90% 左右，並將實際綜合比率控制在 60% 左右。

We have a differentiated model with advanced risk selection, new products, pricing sophistication and efficient claims handling. While there can be short-term volatility associated with catastrophes, these capabilities have delivered sustained success, as you can see over the last 10 years with a recorded combined ratio of 92.3%.

我們擁有差異化的模式，包括先進的風險選擇、新產品、精細化的定價和高效的理賠處理。雖然災難可能會帶來短期波動，但這些能力帶來了持續的成功，正如您在過去 10 年中看到的那樣，綜合比率記錄為 92.3%。

Turning to slide 7. Let's discuss Protection Services. The protection services business is comprised of five businesses: protection plans, auto dealer, roadside assistance, Arity and Identity Protection. It has 171 million policies in force generates $3.3 billion in revenue and had $211 million of income over the last 12 months. Policy growth was 4.4% over the prior year quarter, led by protection plans.

翻到第7張投影片。我們來討論一下安保服務。安保服務業務由五家公司組成：保全計畫、汽車經銷商、道路救援、Arity 和身分保護。該公司擁有 1.71 億份有效保單，創造了 33 億美元的收入，並在過去 12 個月中獲得了 2.11 億美元的收入。保單業務年增 4.4%，主要由保障型保單業務帶動。

Protection plans continues to expand both domestically and internationally, as you can see on the lower right. Revenues increased by 15% over the prior year quarter with a 10% increase in domestic revenue and a 32% increase in international revenue. The business generated $34 million in adjusted net income this quarter, a decrease of $5 million from the prior year quarter due to increased claims. Year-to-date, however, earnings increased by 8% from 2024.

如右下角所示，保障計劃在國內和國際上持續擴展。與去年同期相比，營收成長了 15%，其中國內營收成長了 10%，國際營收成長了 32%。本季公司調整後淨收入為 3,400 萬美元，比上年同期減少 500 萬美元，原因是索賠增加。但截至目前，收益比 2024 年成長了 8%。

Now I'll turn it over to Jess.

現在我把麥克風交給傑西。

Thank you, Mario. Moving to slide 8. You can see the impact of transformative growth execution on property liability growth. The map on the left side of the slide shows the 38 states, Allstate is growing policies in force in dark blue. Investments in expanded distribution, pricing sophistication, marketing and technology are generating policy in force growth in the auto and homeowners insurance businesses.

謝謝你，馬裡奧。切換到第8張投影片。你可以看到變革性成長執行對財產負債成長的影響。幻燈片左側的地圖顯示了 Allstate 正在生效的 38 個州的保單，以深藍色顯示。對擴大分銷管道、提高定價策略、加強行銷和技術投入，正在推動汽車和房屋保險業務的有效保單數量成長。

To the right, we provide more detail by brand. We underwrite auto and homeowners insurance business through Allstate agents and direct to consumers using the Allstate brand. For higher-risk direct channel customers also use the direct auto brand, which we acquired with National General.

右側按品牌提供更多詳細資訊。我們透過 Allstate 代理商和直接面向消費者的 Allstate 品牌承保汽車和房屋保險業務。對於風險較高的直接通路客戶，我們也會使用我們從 National General 收購的直接汽車品牌。

We provided those same products in the independent agent channel using the National General brand. Collectively, these represent what we call our active brands in market. Auto policies in force and active brands increased 2.8% compared to the prior year quarter. National General and direct auto continued to grow at 12% and 22.9%, respectively, reflecting our capabilities in the non-standard auto insurance market in both the direct and independent agent channels.

我們透過獨立代理商管道，使用 National General 品牌提供這些相同的產品。總而言之，這些就是我們所謂的市場上活躍的品牌。與去年同期相比，有效汽車保單和活躍品牌數量增加了 2.8%。全國通用保險和直接汽車保險分別繼續以 12% 和 22.9% 的速度成長，這反映了我們在非標準汽車保險市場（包括直接通路和獨立代理商管道）的能力。

As part of transformative growth, we decided to sunset the Esurance brand and use the Allstate brand in both the exclusive agent and direct channels. In the independent agent channel, as the new National General Custom 360 product has made available, we stopped offering the Encompass policies for new business. While some customers of the inactive brands end up in new business of active brands, growth in the active brand shows the strength of those customer value propositions.

作為轉型成長的一部分，我們決定停用 Esurance 品牌，並在專屬代理商管道和直銷管道中使用 Allstate 品牌。在獨立代理管道中，隨著新的 National General Custom 360 產品的推出，我們停止向新業務提供 Encompass 保單。雖然一些不活躍品牌的客戶最終會轉向活躍品牌的新業務，但活躍品牌的成長表明了這些客戶價值主張的強大。

Homeowner's policies in force and active brands increased 3% compared to the prior year quarter. We continue to see steady growth in policies in force in the Allstate brand as Allstate agents continue to bundle at historically high rates, and we've delivered strong new business growth in the direct channel. Transformative Growth is delivering profitable policy growth.

與去年同期相比，有效的房屋保單和活躍品牌數量增加了 3%。我們看到 Allstate 品牌的有效保單數量持續穩定成長，Allstate 代理商繼續以歷史高價進行捆綁銷售，而且我們在直接管道也實現了強勁的新業務成長。變革性成長正在帶來獲利性的政策成長。

Turning to slide 9. Customer retention remains a key focus. On the left, you can see auto insurance shopping is at historically high levels. Through the first nine months of the year, shopping activity across the industry has increased 9.3% compared to the same period in 2024, driven by higher advertising and industry-wide rate increases in 2022 and 2023.

翻到第9張投影片。客戶留存仍是工作的重點。從左側可以看出，汽車保險購買量已達到歷史高點。今年前九個月，整個行業的購物活動比 2024 年同期增長了 9.3%，這主要得益於 2022 年和 2023 年廣告投入增加以及整個行業的費率上漲。

In this high shopping environment, Allstate is capturing a higher proportion of shoppers with new business increasing 26.2% for the same period in 2025 compared to 2024. Allstate's market share gains in non-standard auto insurance, largely through the independent agent and direct channels also has a negative impact on overall retention, even though these policies are attractive economically.

在當前購物環境蓬勃發展的情況下，Allstate 吸引了更多消費者，預計 2025 年同期新業務量將比 2024 年同期成長 26.2%。Allstate 在非標準汽車保險市場份額的成長（主要透過獨立代理人和直接管道）也對整體客戶留存率產生了負面影響，儘管這些保單在經濟上很有吸引力。

To improve retention, we're lowering prices while maintaining attractive margins and reaching out to customers through the SAVE program. In addition, customers will be transitioned to our new auto and home insurance products, which have higher retention levels.

為了提高客戶留存率，我們在保持可觀利潤率的同時降低了價格，並透過 SAVE 計畫與客戶互動。此外，客戶將過渡到我們新的汽車和房屋保險產品，這些產品的續保率更高。

Finally, product bundling is increasing, particularly through Allstate agents supporting deeper customer relationships. Increasing retention will be additive to growth created through higher increases in new business.

最後，產品捆綁銷售正在增加，尤其是透過 Allstate 的代理人來建立更深層的客戶關係。提高客戶留存率將促進新業務成長帶來的業務成長。

Now I'll turn it over to John.

現在我把麥克風交給約翰。

Thanks, Jess. Turning to slide 10. Let's discuss how we proactively manage our investment portfolio to deliver meaningful shareholder value. This chart shows net investment income and portfolio growth over five years. Since Q1 2021, the portfolio's book value has increased by 39% or $23 billion.

謝謝你，傑西。翻到第10張投影片。讓我們來探討一下我們如何積極管理投資組合，從而為股東創造有意義的價值。這張圖表顯示了五年來的淨投資收益和投資組合成長。自 2021 年第一季以來，該投資組合的帳面價值成長了 39%，即 230 億美元。

Since 2021, asset growth in part reflects the large increase in average auto and homeowners insurance. Growth in assets and higher yields have benefited net investment income. Net investment income for the last 12 months equates to $10 per share, up from less than $9 in 2021.

自 2021 年以來，資產成長部分反映了汽車和房屋保險平均價格的大幅上漲。資產成長和收益率提高使投資淨收益受益。過去 12 個月的淨投資收益相當於每股 10 美元，高於 2021 年的不到 9 美元。

Moving to slide 11. Let's discuss how Allstate takes a proactive approach to managing its investment portfolio within the context of overall enterprise risk and return. The table on the left illustrates how investment decisions consider enterprise factors and market conditions.

切換到第11張投影片。讓我們來探討一下Allstate如何在整體企業風險和回報的背景下，採取積極主動的方式來管理其投資組合。左側表格說明了投資決策如何考慮企業因素和市場狀況。

The blue boxes indicate favorable conditions and orange boxes indicate unfavorable. For example, in 2022, the Property-Liability combined ratio was elevated in both macroeconomic and market dynamics were unfavorable.

藍色方框表示有利條件，橙色方框表示不利條件。例如，2022 年，在宏觀經濟和市場動態不利的情況下，財產負債綜合比率偏高。

We had adequate capital to handle this and decided to reduce the capital supporting investment risks. As you can see on the right-hand graph, this was implemented by lowering interest rate risk by reducing duration shown in the green line. This was a good decision because we then increased duration as rates increased in 2023 and 2024.

我們有足夠的資金來應對這種情況，並決定減少用於支持投資風險的資本。如右圖所示，這是透過降低利率風險（即縮短久期，如綠線所示）來實現的。這是一個明智的決定，因為隨著 2023 年和 2024 年利率的上漲，我們隨後延長了期限。

The combination of these actions protected portfolio values as yields rose and then captured those higher yields to support higher income. We use the same approach to equity holdings, which were reduced in 2023 and 2024, primarily reflecting an outlook for higher inflation.

這些措施的結合，在收益率上升時保護了投資組合的價值，然後利用這些更高的收益率來支持更高的收入。我們對股票持有量也採用了相同的方法，在 2023 年和 2024 年減少了股票持有量，這主要反映了對通膨上升的預期。

By year-end 2024, when profitability was restored and economic and market dynamics were more favorable, we increased the economic capital allocation to investment risk and have slightly been adding growth exposure back to the portfolio.

到 2024 年底，隨著獲利能力的恢復和經濟及市場動態的改善，我們增加了對投資風險的經濟資本配置，並略微地在投資組合中重新增加了成長曝險。

Moving to slide 12. The chart on the left shows the change in GAAP shareholders' equity from year-end 2024 to the end of the third quarter. At the end of 2024, shareholders' equity was $21.4 billion. Strong income, gains on the sale of voluntary benefits and group health businesses and an increase in unrealized net capital gains on investments further strengthened capital. This was partially offset by common share repurchases and dividends to shareholders.

切換到第12張投影片。左側圖表顯示了 2024 年末至第三季末 GAAP 股東權益的變化。截至 2024 年底，股東權益為 214 億美元。強勁的收入、出售自願福利和團體健康業務的收益以及投資未實現淨資本收益的增加，進一步增強了資本實力。普通股回購和向股東派發股利部分抵銷了這一影響。

This year, Allstate has returned $1.6 billion to shareholders on a GAAP basis through common shareholder dividends and share repurchases. Overall, GAAP shareholders' equity increased to $27.5 billion as of the third quarter of 2025.

今年，Allstate 已透過普通股股東分紅和股票回購，並按美國通用會計準則 (GAAP) 向股東返還了 16 億美元。截至 2025 年第三季度，GAAP 股東權益整體增加至 275 億美元。

Over the last 12 months, adjusted net income return on equity was 34.7%. Increasing property liability market share at target levels will create additional shareholder value. In addition to growth initiatives, Allstate deploys capital through the investment portfolio, which generates attractive returns and provides a diversified source of income.

過去 12 個月，調整後的淨利權益報酬率為 34.7%。將財產責任險市場佔有率提升至目標水平，將創造更多股東價值。除了成長計劃外，Allstate 還透過投資組合部署資本，從而產生可觀的回報並提供多元化的收入來源。

Allstate has a long history of returning cash to shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases. Over the last 12 months, Allstate has returned $1.8 billion to shareholders which is 3.5% of the average market value of common equity. Over the last five years, $11.5 billion has been returned to shareholders, representing approximately 22% of common outstanding shares.

Allstate長期以來一直透過股利和股票回購向股東返還現金。過去 12 個月，Allstate 已向股東返還了 18 億美元，相當於普通股平均市值的 3.5%。過去五年，公司已向股東返還了 115 億美元，約佔已發行普通股的 22%。

Now let's move to questions.

現在我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Robert Cox, Goldman Sachs.

羅伯特‧考克斯，高盛集團。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. So just the first question on capital. Obviously, a significant amount of capital generated this quarter, and you all stated in the presentation, you're in a favorable capital position. Can you just talk us through how you're thinking about holding company liquidity and how quickly we could see you guys normalize that level of deployable assets at the holdco?

嘿，謝謝。早安.那麼，關於資本的第一個問題。顯然，本季產生了大量的資金，而且你們都在報告中提到，你們的資金狀況良好。您能否詳細介紹一下您是如何考慮控股公司流動性的，以及我們多久才能看到你們使控股公司可部署資產的水平恢復正常？

Sure. Let me start off the top first. We have a very sophisticated way that we think, sophisticated in a way the way which we manage capital, so it's not as simple as sort of premium to surplus ratio and it served us well for a long period of time. And so we keep doing that and our assessment will be similar to yours, which is we have plenty of capital today.

當然。讓我先從最上面開始。我們的思維方式非常複雜，我們管理資本的方式也很複雜，所以它不像溢價與盈餘比率那麼簡單，而且這種方式在很長一段時間內都對我們很有效。因此，我們會繼續這樣做，我們的評估結果將與你們的評估結果類似，即我們目前擁有充足的資金。

Let me -- the list of options are pretty straightforward as to what we could do with it. But let me maybe address your specific question they come up to the more contemporary assessment of what the options are as it relates to the holding company, we leave -- we put as much money as we can into the holding company because it's flexible. We can put it back into the insurance company if we want. We can use it for share repurchases. We use it to buy company. We can use it to do a variety of different things.

讓我來解釋一下——選項清單非常明確，說明了我們可以用它做什麼。但或許我可以回答你的具體問題，對於控股公司而言，根據更現代的評估，我們會盡可能向控股公司投入資金，因為它很靈活。如果需要，我們可以把錢還給保險公司。我們可以將其用於股票回購。我們用它來收購公司。我們可以用它來做各種不同的事情。

So we prefer the flexibility to have it up in the holding company as opposed to in the insurance company. So the movements from one to another tend to be really related to where we are with our regulatory approvals on moving it and what the rules are and moving it up as opposed to, oh, we took money out of the insurance company because we thought we had enough down there. We've always had enough down there. We have plenty of capital there, so we're not worried about it.

因此，我們更傾向於將其置於控股公司而非保險公司，這樣更具靈活性。因此，從一種情況到另一種情況的轉變，往往與我們在監管審批方面的進展以及相關規則有關，而不是因為我們認為我們在底層資金充足就從保險公司拿走了錢。我們那裡一直都夠用了。我們在那裡資金充足，所以我們並不擔心。

As it relates to the uses of capital, it's the same options that you all know. But if you sort of said, well, where are we today and what would be the best uses for. Obviously, with the kind of returns we're getting in our business, just growing that business and keeping investing in that business is a great return in a good way to go.

至於資本的用途，和你們都知道的那些選擇一樣。但如果你問，我們現在處於什麼階段，以及什麼是最佳用途。顯然，以我們目前的業務回報來看，發展業務並持續投資業務本身就是一種很好的回報方式。

To the extent we can further grow the business, we get the two for not only of higher income but earnings multiple rerate. So that's our key and primary focus. John talked about what we could do in investments and what we do with investments as to how to make extra return. So that's another option for us.

如果我們能夠進一步發展業務，我們不僅可以獲得更高的收入，還可以獲得收益倍數的重新評估。所以這是我們的重點和首要關注。約翰談到了我們可以在投資方面做些什麼，以及我們如何利用投資來獲得額外回報。所以這是我們的另一個選擇。

We obviously could buy other companies which leverage our skills and capabilities, whether that's National General SquareTrade, which were both terrific transactions. We still have some work to do on identity protection.

我們顯然可以收購其他能夠發揮我們技能和能力的公司，例如 National General SquareTrade，這兩筆交易都非常棒。我們在身分保護方面還有一些工作要做。

But I feel confident. We'll see we still have work to do to make that one be what it can be and it will get there. And then obviously, there's all kinds of things you can do with shareholders, there's dividends and share repurchases. John talked about that, too. We never held back on that, but we prioritize stuff where is the most return for shareholders.

但我覺得很有信心。我們會看到，要讓它發揮應有的潛力，我們還有很多工作要做，但它終會實現目標。當然，你還可以對股東做各種各樣的事情，例如分紅和股票回購。約翰也談到了這件事。我們從未在這方面有所保留，但我們會優先考慮能為股東帶來最大回報的事情。

Okay. Awesome. Thanks for the comprehensive answer. And then just on pricing. I appreciate that you guys back out the New York, New Jersey growth from your new PIF growth, which is very helpful. But just wondering if you could talk about where pricing was excluding New York and New Jersey? And maybe just more broadly, where you think pricing is headed into 2026?

好的。驚人的。感謝您詳盡的解答。然後就是價格方面。我很欣賞你們從新的 PIF 成長中剔除紐約和新澤西的成長，這非常有幫助。請問您能否談談除紐約州和新澤西州以外的地區的價格情況？更廣泛地說，您認為 2026 年的價格走勢會是怎樣的？

Yeah. So Robert, in terms of overall pricing, obviously, you can see how strong the margins are in auto insurance. So the rate need has certainly diminished. And I would say the book is broadly rate adequate at this point.

是的。所以羅伯特，就整體定價而言，很明顯，你可以看出汽車保險的利潤率有多高。因此，利率需求無疑已降低。我認為這本書目前整體評價尚可接受。

In the quarter, we did implement some rates in New York and New Jersey that had approved earlier in the year but implemented in the quarter. So that shows up in what we show you in the supplement which is not a meaningfully high number, that was 0.6 points.

本季度，我們在紐約州和新澤西州實施了一些費率，這些費率雖然在今年早些時候已經獲得批准，但直到本季度才開始實施。所以，這一點在我們向您展示的補充資料中也有所體現，這個數字並不高，只有 0.6 分。

So you take those two out and it gives you a real sense for how little rate is needed in the book. As we look at loss trends, the loss trends in pure premium look good. Our margins are strong. Frequency is a big contributor to that, and that's a bit of a wildcard. So as we think about 2026, what I'll tell you is we'll respond accordingly to whatever the trends are.

所以，把這兩個因素排除掉，你就能真正感受到書中所需的利率有多低了。從損失趨勢來看，純保費的損失趨勢看起來不錯。我們的利潤率很高。頻率是造成這種情況的重要因素，但這又是一個難以預測的因素。所以，展望2026年，我可以告訴大家的是，我們將根據當時的趨勢做出相對應的反應。

That means they continue to be benign and the book doesn't need rate, and we won't take rate. But to the extent we see loss costs pick up, we're going to stay out ahead of it and target that mid-90s combined ratio that we've been able to achieve over the last decade.

這意味著它們仍然是良性的，這本書不需要評級，我們也不會接受評級。但是，如果損失成本上升，我們將提前做好準備，爭取達到過去十年中我們一直保持的 90% 左右的綜合比率。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Gregory Peters, Raymond James.

格雷戈里彼得斯，雷蒙德詹姆斯。

Well, good morning, everyone. So I'm going to start. First of all, in the slide deck on page 4, you provided an interesting slide regarding our approach to artificial intelligence. I feel like there's probably a lot of information behind that slide.

大家早安。那我先開始了。首先，在第 4 頁的幻燈片中，您提供了一張關於我們人工智慧方法的有趣幻燈片。我覺得那張投影片背後可能包含很多資訊。

So when we've asked other companies, they've given us some ideas about what the tech budget looks like, how much is going to maintenance systems versus new initiatives. But when I look at the slide here, I guess what I'm particularly interested in is where are you in this life cycle? You introduced ALLIE. I'm just curious what that looks like when you get to a more complete phase and just additional color on what's going on and what your end goal is with the technology.

所以當我們詢問其他公司時，他們給了我們一些關於技術預算組成的想法，例如有多少用於維護系統，又有多少用於新專案。但是當我看到這張投影片時，我特別感興趣的是，你目前處於生命週期的哪個階段？你介紹了艾莉。我只是好奇，當專案進入更完整的階段時，會是什麼樣子，以及對正在發生的事情和你們使用這項技術的最終目標進行更詳細的說明。

Let me start at the end, Greg, [otherwise] you're now Gregory. It's like a fancy. Let me start with the end and then come back into some of your questions. Not all of which we have answers to at this point. So be open and transparent by that. First, I think this technology has the opportunity to help us really reimagine the whole way we go to market and do a terrific job for our customers at a lower price with better service.

讓我從結尾開始吧，格雷格，[否則]你現在就變成格雷戈里了。它就像一個高級的。讓我先從結尾說起，然後再回答你們的一些問題。目前我們還沒有所有問題的答案。所以，在這方面要公開透明。首先，我認為這項技術有機會幫助我們徹底重新構想我們進入市場的方式，並以更低的價格和更好的服務為我們的客戶提供出色的工作。

And in fact, I believe it can help us add things that we don't currently do because they're too expensive. So not only will it help us reduce cost, I think it will help us improve the value proposition. Now that's easy to say and hard to do.

事實上，我相信它可以幫助我們提供一些目前因為成本太高而無法實現的項目。因此，這不僅有助於我們降低成本，我認為也有助於我們提高價值主張。說起來容易做起來難。

So what we're doing is working with generative AI, today, to do mostly get more effective and more efficient than what we currently do. So I'll give you an example of that on the list. But when somebody sues our customers, there's a bunch of work they have to do to keep our customers safe and not lose a bunch of money and includes things like reading a 900-page medical file that used to be done by doctors today that is done by a computer.

所以，我們現在正在利用生成式人工智慧，主要是為了比我們目前所做的工作更有效、更有效率。所以我會在清單上舉個例子。但是，當有人起訴我們的客戶時，他們需要做很多工作來保障客戶的安全和避免損失大量金錢，其中包括閱讀過去由醫生完成的 900 頁醫療檔案，而現在這項工作由電腦完成。

So it's helping us be better and more effective and both reduce our just administrative costs for doing that, but also then presumably make us smarter and give us better decisions with humans in the loop. The Agentic AI really is a chance to do it completely differently.

所以它幫助我們變得更好、更有效率，既降低了我們為此付出的行政成本，也可能使我們更聰明，讓我們在人為因素的參與下做出更好的決策。智能體人工智慧確實提供了一個完全不同的解決方案。

So for example, how we communicate to you what mode of communication we use, what we communicate to you is dependent on who you are. and what your relationship with us has been and it's hard to put all their knowledge in the brain of one individual who's on a phone at that point in time. It's not that hard to put it in the hands of an agent which can process up with advanced computing power very quickly. So we believe there is -- throughout the whole business chain, there's ways in which we can do it.

例如，我們如何與您溝通，我們使用何種溝通方式，以及我們與您溝通的內容，都取決於您是誰，以及您與我們之間的關係。很難將所有這些資訊塞進當時正在打電話的一個人的腦子裡。把它交給一個擁有強大運算能力的代理程式並不難，它可以非常迅速地進行處理。所以我們相信，在整個業務鏈中，有很多方法可以做到這一點。

So we've come up with a plan to try to build ALLIE. It's got just like we did transformative growth. It's got components in its phases. We're not ready to roll that out to everybody because we're in the -- what I would call, design and build space. But it's our belief that the opportunity is so large that we should move quickly on this as opposed to wait to see if somebody else can develop it first. As it relates to cost, it's going to cost more, and we're just going to manage our way through it.

所以我們制定了一個計劃，嘗試建造 ALLIE。它就像我們之前經歷的那種變革性成長。它的各個階段都包含不同的組成部分。我們還沒有準備好向所有人推廣這項技術，因為我們目前處於——我稱之為——設計和建造的領域。但我們認為，這個機會非常大，我們應該迅速採取行動，而不是等待其他人先開發出來。至於成本方面，一定會增加，我們只能想辦法應付了。

Well, thank you for that answer. I guess related to that, you talked about on retention on slide 9, personalizing experiences. You also mentioned how your business mix is changing a little bit. How is technology going to help you improve your retention? And when I read this bullet point is personalizing experiences, to me, that sounds more labor intensive, not less labor-intensive?

謝謝你的解答。我想這與你在第 9 張投影片中談到的留存率和個人化體驗有關。您也提到您的業務組合正在發生一些變化。科技將如何幫助你提高客戶留存率？當我讀到「個人化體驗」這一點時，我覺得這聽起來更費力，而不是更省力？

I actually think it's -- to do it well, it will be less labor intensive. So the computer can help you do it. Today, for example, if you get on our Webstep, we have three offerings that we give you good, better, best, we could -- it's possible with technology to help figure out exactly what should Greg's offers be.

我個人認為，如果做得好，反而會更省力。所以電腦可以幫助你做到這一點。例如，今天如果您造訪我們的 Webstep，我們會提供三種服務：好、更好、最好。我們可以藉助科技來幫助確定 Greg 應該提供的具體服務。

Today, it's not done that way, but it could be done that way. So I believe there's plenty of opportunity to improve this. Retention, I would say, retention, we have just other things we can work on. I mean, Jess can give you some sense of what we're doing on retention because that's -- I would say that's not really ALLIE. ALLIE is really redoing the whole business model. Retention is something we just need to work on each and every day.

現在雖然不是那樣做的，但也可以那樣做。所以我認為這方面還有很多進步的空間。對於客戶留存率，我想說，我們還有其他事情可以著手處理。我的意思是，Jess 可以讓你了解我們在客戶留存方面所做的工作，因為——我想說，那真的不是 ALLIE。ALLIE 正在徹底重塑整個商業模式。提高用戶留存率是我們每天都需要努力的事情。

Yeah, Greg. So it's Jess. We are very focused, as I said in the presentation on SAVE program and reaching out in the point of customization to make sure that we're providing customers with the opportunity to tailor their coverage and save money.

是的，格雷格。原來是傑西。正如我在關於 SAVE 計劃的演示中所說，我們非常注重個性化定制，以確保我們為客戶提供客製化保險範圍和節省資金的機會。

And as you saw, we saved more significant number of customers more than 5%, and that's going and looking for opportunities for discounts like Easy Pay or paid in full, encouraging customers to use telematics and truly tailor their coverage options to best meet their needs.

正如您所看到的，我們為更多客戶節省了超過 5% 的費用，這是因為我們積極尋找折扣機會，例如分期付款或全額付款，鼓勵客戶使用遠端資訊處理技術，並真正定制他們的保險方案，以最大程度地滿足他們的需求。

And so I think technology allows us to do that and to better reach out and identify where customers have needs and where opportunities exist for us to save them money, which naturally improves retention. So I think that we're continuing to focus on what we can do to increase value for our customers relates to lowering prices and enhancing experiences.

因此，我認為科技使我們能夠做到這一點，更好地接觸客戶，了解客戶的需求以及為他們省錢的機會，這自然會提高客戶留存率。所以我認為，我們將繼續專注於如何提高客戶價值，這包括降低價格和提升體驗。

Makes sense. Thanks for the detail.

有道理。謝謝你提供的詳細資訊。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

Andrew Kligerman，TD Cowen。

Hey, good morning. My first question is around the exclusive agent channel within Allstate brands. And I'm wondering how that has progressed in terms of agent count and retention year-to-date. How has that played out? And how do you see that playing out over the next couple of years?

嘿，早安。我的第一個問題是關於Allstate旗下品牌的專屬代理商管道。我想知道就今年迄今為止的代理商數量和留存率而言，進展如何。結果如何？你認為未來幾年這種情況會如何發展？

Andrew, it's a good question. Let me give you an overview of where we've come from or two, and I'll give Mario an opportunity to talk about where we are going. So when we start Transformative Growth, we had over 10,000 Allstate agents. And today, we have 6,000. We are writing more business today than we were then. So productivity is way up. And that's not just because we're doing more advertising, you're actually doing a terrific job of leaning into this. And the team we have in place is doing great work.

安德魯，問得好。讓我先簡單回顧一下我們走過的路，然後再給馬裡奧一個機會，讓他談談我們要去哪裡。所以當我們啟動轉型成長計畫時，我們擁有超過 10,000 名 Allstate 代理商。而今天，我們有 6000 人。我們現在的業務量比以前多了。所以生產效率大幅提升。這不僅是因為我們加大了廣告投入，你們在這方面也做得非常好。我們現有的團隊工作非常出色。

They're also extremely good at bundling auto and home, which builds in sustainability. So we feel like there were some questions from some shareholders and analysts when we get started on what will happen with the Allstate agents. We think the Allstate agent network is strong today than it was then. And we've added independent agent and direct response and expanded that. So we're feeling good about where we are.

他們也非常擅長將汽車和房屋捆綁銷售，從而實現永續發展。因此，我們感覺，當我們開始討論Allstate代理商的未來走向時，一些股東和分析師提出了一些問題。我們認為，如今Allstate的代理商網路比以前更加強大。我們也增加了獨立代理商和直接行銷，並擴大了這些管道。所以我們對目前的狀況感到滿意。

Mario can talk about where we're going.

馬裡奧可以談談我們要去哪裡。

Yeah. I think, Andrew, I would plus up what Tom said in terms of the performance of the agency system. When you look at our production and the fact that it's pretty equally distributed across all three channels. The agency -- the Allstate agency channel is a core part of that. So this is not about not wanting to grow in that channel.

是的。安德魯，我認為，就代理系統的表現而言，我同意湯姆的說法。當你觀察我們的節目製作情況，你會發現它在三個頻道上的分佈相當均衡。代理商－Allstate 代理商通路是其中的核心部分。所以這並不是說我們不想在這個管道發展。

We're very much interested in continuing to grow in the Allstate Agency channel and the productivity of the channel is off the charts and they continue to invest in their businesses. In terms of where we go from here, number one, it will continue to be a key part of our strategy because we believe there's a significant percentage of people that are going to want to interact with a human on the other side. And in our case, that would be an Allstate exclusive agent.

我們非常有興趣繼續在 Allstate 代理通路發展壯大，該通路的生產力非常高，而且他們也持續投資於自己的業務。至於我們未來的發展方向，首先，它將繼續是我們策略的關鍵部分，因為我們相信，很大一部分人仍然希望與另一端的人互動。就我們而言，那就是Allstate的專屬代理商。

But we're going to ask our agents to continue to adapt going forward just as they've adapted over the last five or six years as we've implemented transformative growth with a real focus on continuing to build new relationships, which you see through productivity.

但我們將要求我們的代理商繼續適應未來，就像過去五、六年裡他們一直在適應一樣，因為我們實施了變革性成長，真正專注於繼續建立新的關係，這一點從生產力上就能看出來。

But also to cultivate those relationships, leveraging the tools that Tom talked about with artificial intelligence and data and analytics to be able to engage with their customers more frequently to deepen relationships and sell a broader array of protection products and services going forward. So Allstate agent key part of our growth strategy going forward. We will continue to expand their role going forward, and we're bullish on the future.

但同時也要培養這些關係，利用湯姆提到的人工智慧、數據和分析工具，更頻繁地與客戶互動，加深關係，並在未來銷售更廣泛的保護產品和服務。因此，Allstate 的代理人是我們未來發展策略的關鍵組成部分。我們將繼續擴大他們的作用，我們對未來充滿信心。

Got it. Thank you for that. And my follow-up goes back to slide 4. And it's certainly the transformative growth seems pretty awesome and Tom's comment that ALLIE is an opportunity so large that you don't want to wait to see if someone else can do it.

知道了。謝謝。我的後續問題要回到第 4 張投影片。而這種變革性的成長確實令人驚嘆，湯姆也評論說，ALLIE 是一個如此巨大的機會，你不想等著看別人能否做到。

And so my question is around if you could share this because I haven't seen slides like this with a number of your competitors. Where are you versus the competition? Is there any way that you can share a benchmark with us that kind of puts all state in one place and the large bulk of the competition elsewhere?

所以我的問題是，您能否分享一下這些投影片，因為我在您的一些競爭對手那裡沒有看到類似的幻燈片。你與競爭對手相比處於什麼位置？您能否與我們分享一個基準，將所有州放在一起，而將大部分競爭對手放在其他地方？

Nobody knows, really, I can't speak for where they're at here. I'm guessing most people are using generative AI. It's almost -- it's easy to do -- and so I'm sure even if it's not an organized program like ALLIE is, I'm sure our competitors are using that. I can't speak for what they're doing strategically to try to redo the business model. We've been working on this for a while.

沒人知道，真的，我無法代表他們發言。我猜大多數人都在使用生成式人工智慧。這幾乎——很容易做到——所以我確信，即使它不像 ALLIE 那樣是一個有組織的程序，我也確信我們的競爭對手正在使用它。我無法評論他們為了重塑商業模式而採取的策略性舉措。我們已經為此努力了一段時間。

We kind of felt like now it's about time to start talking about what we're doing without going into specifics is nobody wants to give somebody else a road map as to how you're going to do it but -- so I'm guessing they're all good. We have competition. They're smart people, good companies. I'm sure they're working on it and do it.

我們覺得現在是時候開始談談我們正在做的事情了，但又不想透露具體細節，因為沒有人願意給別人如何做的路線圖，但是——所以我猜他們都沒問題。我們面臨競爭。他們都是聰明人，也是優秀的公司。我相信他們正在努力，而且一定會做到。

Everybody has different outcomes. I would say I was with a group of CEOs who were talking about the problems they have with data. In transformative growth the target state architecture that we put in place has a particular way in which we move and use data, and that's really set us up to do this.

每個人的結果都不一樣。我記得當時我和一群CEO在一起，他們正在討論他們在數據方面遇到的問題。在變革性成長中，我們建立的目標狀態架構有一種特殊的資料移動和使用方式，這確實為我們實現這一目標奠定了基礎。

If you ask me didn't we know exactly that was going to work that way five or six years ago. No. Did we think it made sense? Yes. This technology follow the rules of logic? Yes. So like we couldn't have predicted that you're going to have a genetic AI, but we're really happy we have what we have.

要我說，五、六年前我們不是早就知道事情會這樣發展嗎？不。我們當時覺得這樣做合理嗎？是的。這項技術遵循邏輯規則嗎？是的。所以，就像我們無法預料到你會擁有基因人工智慧一樣，但我們對現在擁有的一切感到非常高興。

Awesome. Thanks so much.

驚人的。非常感謝。

Paul Newsome, Piper Sandler.

保羅‧紐瑟姆，派珀‧桑德勒。

Good morning. Thanks for the call. A couple of big picture questions I was hoping you could address. So the biggest pushback I get for Allstate is concerns from investors that competition is going to lower prices quickly in response to recent profitability and an Allstate is lowering prices and those will squeeze margins such that you're sort of at peak rings.

早安.謝謝你的來電。我希望您能解答幾個比較宏觀的問題。因此，我收到的對Allstate的最大反對意見是投資者擔心，競爭對手會因為最近的盈利能力而迅速降低價格，而Allstate正在降低價格，這將擠壓利潤空間，使價格達到峰值。

So two-part question, I'll leave it at that. Could you just talk a bit about how you see the market dynamic evolving over time? Some guys have been through a number of years and seen a lot of history. And then relatedly, can you talk about how you sort of really think about the trade-off that you're talking about between pricing and PIF growth and mechanically, how you do it and why we can be confident that it's a good trade-off?

這是一個包含兩個部分的問題，我就說到這裡吧。您能否談談您如何看待市場動態隨時間推移而演變的問題？有些人經歷了很多年，見證了許多歷史。那麼，您能否談談您是如何看待定價和 PIF 成長之間的權衡的？從機制上講，您是如何實現的？為什麼我們可以確信這是一個好的權衡？

Let me go up for a minute, and then I'll come down your specific question around trade-off between -- maybe I'll start with PIF growth and economics. Well, first, we make money. So like we want to increase policies in force. We know that, that generates increased returns for shareholders. We know that it could lead to a re-rating of the PE but unless we're making money, we're not doing it, whether that's advertising or anything else.

讓我先向上解釋一下，然後再回到你關於權衡取捨的具體問題上來——也許我會從PIF的成長和經濟效益開始。首先，我們要賺錢。所以我們希望加強現行政策。我們知道，這會為股東帶來更高的回報。我們知道這可能會導致市盈率重新評估，但除非我們能賺錢，否則我們不會去做，無論是廣告還是其他任何事情。

So we treat our shareholders' capital dearly, and we make money on it. Let me go to the overall competitive stuff. And I'll give you some observations just we're one team on the field and in the league, so I can give you some observations in there. And then I'll give you some specifics about our performance. So it's already a highly competitive environment.

所以我們非常重視股東的資本，並從中獲利。接下來我來說說整體競爭狀況。我會給你一些觀察，因為我們是場上和聯盟中的一支球隊，所以我可以給你一些觀察。然後我會具體介紹一下我們的表現。所以這已經是一個競爭非常激烈的環境了。

It's not like it's about to become a highly competitive environment. We're banging it out every day in the marketplace, whether that's competing for leads, getting the right pricing sophistication, doing our claims well, like it's a highly competitive market.

這裡還不至於變成一個競爭非常激烈的環境。我們每天都在市場上努力拼搏，無論是爭奪潛在客戶、制定合適的定價策略，還是做好我們的宣傳工作，因為這是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。

And you can -- and my answer to the people who doubt it would be like, well, you can see how we've done in that market for the last decade. Can I predict every play is going to be -- we're not going to give up more than a yard.

你可以——對於那些對此表示懷疑的人，我的回答是，你可以看看我們過去十年在這個市場上的表現。我可以預測每一次進攻——我們都不會讓對手推進超過一碼。

No. But in the end, when you look at our combined ratios and the value we've created for shareholders in a bunch of different ways, we've done quite well. And when you look at the specific competitors, Progressive is a really strong competitor in auto. They have great capabilities. I expect them to stay strong in auto.

不。但最終，當你審視我們的綜合比率以及我們以各種方式為股東創造的價值時，你會發現我們做得相當不錯。如果仔細分析具體的競爭對手，就會發現 Progressive 在汽車領域是一個非常強大的競爭對手。他們擁有強大的能力。我預計他們在汽車領域會保持強勁勢頭。

I think State Farm has picked up share in the last couple of years. They use their capital position to do that, which meets their objectives. So I think they achieved what they set out to do. They don't seem to be dialing up advertising as much as progressive, but that's anecdotal.

我認為State Farm在過去幾年內市場份額有所增長。他們利用自身的資本實力來實現這一目標，從而達到他們的目標。所以我認為他們實現了既定目標。他們似乎沒有像進步派那樣加大廣告投入，但這只是個別現象。

I don't have a set of facts from some TV watching service to prove that. GEICO lost a couple of points of share because they have written a bunch of business prior to that, which was not profitable. So they decided to not have that business anymore. They turned on the old model, whether that works in the current competitive environment with the current set of defenses out in the field, it's not clear but I'm not saying it's not. It's just they seem to be turning on the model that they've used historically, which did able to pick up share.

我沒有某個電視觀看服務機構的一系列事實來證明這一點。GEICO的市場份額下降了幾個百分點，因為他們之前承保了許多業務，但這些業務並不盈利。所以他們決定不再經營那門生意了。他們啟用了舊模式，這種模式在當前競爭激烈的環境下，在當前場上防守體系下是否有效，目前還不清楚，但我並不是說它無效。他們似乎正在改變他們過去一直使用的模式，而這種模式確實能夠贏得市場份額。

So I think they're on the field. Others, I think, are struggling to keep up. And so if you look at Allstate's performance, in that environment, and let's just make it contemporary. Just showed you some numbers. Our new business is up higher than the shopping stuff. So we're able to compete there. and customer acquisition. And that's a highly competitive and sophisticated market like we're already working on some new plays for next year on what we're going to do in the lower funnel stuff. So that's highly competitive.

所以我覺得他們應該在場上。我認為，其他人則很難跟上。所以，如果你看看Allstate在這種環境下的表現，讓我們把它放到當代脈絡來看。剛才給你看了一些數字。我們的新業務位於比購物區更高的位置。因此我們有能力參與競爭，並獲取客戶。這是一個競爭非常激烈且複雜的市場，我們已經在為明年制定一些新的策略，以應對漏斗底部的問題。所以競爭非常激烈。

Pricing and auto insurance were good. We continue to roll out new programs. We'll continue to roll out new programs retention, it's kind of flat over the way. It depends which channel and which risk category and set it's kind of flat over the last couple of quarters.

價格和汽車保險都很合理。我們持續推出新項目。我們將繼續推出新的專案以提高用戶留存率，目前來看，用戶留存率成長基本上持平。這取決於具體管道和風險類別，而且在過去幾季基本上保持穩定。

We have an opportunity to increase that by competing for customers that are already in-house as opposed to going out and competing to get new customers. So that's a different kind of competition we're kind of competing against ourselves and their expectations.

我們有機會透過爭取現有客戶而不是出去爭奪新客戶來增加這種機會。所以這是一種不同類型的競爭，我們既要與自己競爭，又要與他們的期望競爭。

If you move beyond auto insurance, we have lots of other ways to grow too. If you look at our homeowners insurance business, we believe it's picking up share because we don't think there's more than 3% new homes in the United States when you just look at PIF, and that's just a really strong business. If it was a stand-alone company, and I'm not suggesting it is, by the way, if it was standalone, people would be like rocking about that business.

除了汽車保險之外，我們還有許多其他發展途徑。如果你看看我們的房屋保險業務，我們認為它的市場份額正在增長，因為我們認為，如果只看 PIF，美國的新房數量不會超過 3%，而這確實是一個非常強勁的業務。如果它是一家獨立的公司（順便說一句，我並不是說它是一家獨立的公司），如果它是獨立的，人們會非常熱衷於這項業務。

Specialty lines, we got one of the best renters products in the market. We have some work to do on auto, on motorcycle and boats and some [have said] that, our share is below what it should be, so another place to grow.

專業產品線方面，我們擁有市場上最好的租屋產品之一。我們在汽車、摩托車和船舶領域還有一些工作要做，有人說，我們的市場份額低於應有的水平，所以這是另一個需要成長的領域。

If you go beyond that, the protection plans, we have a terrific position in embedded insurance in the retail channel in the United States, we're not taking that internationally. We struggled to find a way into the big cell carriers to get into a cell phone insurance. So we've been kind of fighting a way. That said, we're not going to give up. There's a way to find those customers.

如果更進一步來說，在保障計畫方面，我們在美國零售通路的嵌入式保險領域擁有非常強大的地位，但我們並沒有將其推廣到國際市場。我們費了好大勁才找到進入大型行動電信商網路購買手機保險的方法。所以我們一直在努力奮鬥。即便如此，我們也不會放棄。有辦法找到這些客戶。

We haven't figured out how yet, but we're at -- so we have lots of ways to grow. There are some things we have that other people don't have. So if you look at our growth, just talking about growth in non-standard share, we took the National General capabilities, and we put that into the Allstate Flow of business and you can see that we've picked up real share in the non-standard auto customers.

我們還沒有找到具體方法，但我們現在處於——所以我們有很多發展途徑。我們擁有一些別人沒有的東西。所以，如果你看看我們的成長，就非標準份額的成長而言，我們採用了 National General 的能力，並將其融入到 Allstate 的業務流程中，你可以看到我們在非標準汽車客戶中獲得了真正的份額。

So we like that. Now what we do is have to flip that and take that same approach and pick up standard customers in the independent agent channel or standard auto and homeowners. We'll have to see whether we get that done, but we have plenty of ways to grow this.

我們很喜歡這一點。現在我們要做的就是反過來，採取同樣的策略，在獨立代理商通路或普通汽車和房屋保險領域爭取普通客戶。我們得看看能不能做到，但我們有很多方法可以發展壯大。

Fantastic. Appreciate the help and the patience.

極好的。感謝您的幫助和耐心。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

伊莉絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question is on auto retention. I was hoping to get some more color on how it's trended for just active brands. And we should think about retention inflecting up both for your active brands and just also on an overall basis?

您好，謝謝。早安.我的第一個問題是關於自動保留策略的。我原本希望能了解更多關於運動品牌的發展趨勢。我們應該考慮提高活躍品牌和整體品牌的留存率嗎？

Okay, Elyse. So it's a good way to split the question between active and inactive brands because some of those inactive brands the decline in retention is intentional because we want to move them from those brands to the other brands.

好的，伊莉絲。所以，將問題分為活躍品牌和非活躍品牌是一個好方法，因為某些非活躍品牌的留存率下降是故意的，因為我們希望將他們從這些品牌轉移到其他品牌。

Another thing that will impact retention is going forward, and Jess can talk about some of the specific things we're doing, but we didn't really highlight a lot is I think just talking about moving people from classic to the ASC products would be some additional insight that you haven't given already.

未來還有哪些因素會影響用戶留存率？ Jess 可以談談我們正在採取的一些具體措施，但我們並沒有真正強調這一點。我認為，談談如何將用戶從經典產品轉移到 ASC 產品，會是一些你還沒有提到的額外見解。

Yeah, absolutely. So in addition to what I mentioned earlier, Elyse, we are going through and we give our customers an opportunity to move into the affordable, simple and connected products. as we roll that out by state.

是的，絕對的。所以，除了我之前提到的，伊莉絲，我們正在努力讓我們的客戶有機會使用價格實惠、簡單易用且互聯互通的產品，我們將按州逐步推出這些產品。

You've seen how many states that we've rolled out for the ASC product, and we are able to have our agents and both in the call center and in the exclusive agencies reach out to customers and give them an opportunity to move into our most contemporary product with the most contemporary pricing. And we think that's a real opportunity to improve retention.

您已經看到了我們為 ASC 產品在多少個州推出，我們能夠讓我們的代理商，無論是在呼叫中心還是在專屬代理機構，都能聯繫客戶，讓他們有機會以最優惠的價格獲得我們最先進的產品。我們認為這是一個提高客戶留存率的絕佳機會。

It does two things. One, it gives them an opportunity to save money it also allows agents to engage differently and add value and deepen the relationship by offering our best products. And so we will continue to implement that and move folks to our best and most contemporary products in this quarter into the coming year. And we think that will have a real impact on retention.

它有兩個作用。第一，它為他們提供了一個省錢的機會；第二，它讓代理商能夠以不同的方式參與互動，並透過提供我們最好的產品來增加價值並加深關係。因此，我們將繼續實施這項策略，並在本季及明年將用戶引導至我們最好、最先進的產品。我們認為這將對用戶留存率產生實際的影響。

Thanks. And then my second question is just on capital. You guys -- I think it's building upon one of the earlier questions, right? There is excess parent you guys, given the strong results this year, right, did start to take dividends out of AIC in the quarter.

謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於資本的。你們——我覺得這是在之前某個問題的基礎上提出的，對吧？鑑於今年強勁的業績，你們的母公司資金過剩，對吧？本季已經開始從AIC提取股息。

I guess, given that, I mean, I was a little bit surprised on the buyback perhaps was it higher given that there's more capital at parent. So if you could just help me think about just balancing the buyback versus, I guess, now having more excess at parent. And are you guys holding on to capital there for M&A? And if that's part of the answer, where would potential M&A transactions be concentrated?

我想，有鑑於此，我的意思是，我對回購金額可能更高感到有點驚訝，因為母公司擁有更多資本。所以，如果您能幫我考慮一下如何平衡回購和（我想）現在母公司擁有更多盈餘之間的關係，那就太好了。你們是否在那裡持有用於併購的資金？如果這是部分答案，那麼潛在的併購交易會集中在哪些地區？

So the share buyback program as an approved $1.5 billion and had a set time on it and we're just buying it back according to the period of time we had it in the amount. So there's nothing magic. It sounds like we have a good month. We decided we're going to buy more shares back to some of that because we've always had plenty of capital.

因此，股票回購計畫已獲批准，金額為 15 億美元，並設定了期限，我們只是按照我們持有該金額的時間進行回購。所以沒有什麼魔法。聽起來我們這個月過得很好。我們決定回購部分股份，因為我們一直資金充裕。

Like when we put a $1.5 billion share repurchase program, that means we think we have more than $1.5 billion of additional capital. So we don't set the target based on what we will earn we set the share buyback on what we have, factoring in that, maybe the future won't be as good as you think it is. So we've always felt great about that program.

例如，當我們推出 15 億美元的股票回購計畫時，這意味著我們認為我們擁有超過 15 億美元的額外資金。所以，我們設定目標不是基於我們將要賺多少錢，而是基於我們現有的資金來設定股票回購計劃，考慮到這一點，未來可能不像你想像的那麼好。所以我們一直對這個項目感到非常滿意。

When that program is done, then we'll decide what we do with the next one, and that will be done sometime next year. And so that's still come. In terms of like what we use the money for, it's like organic and we're like on the open field.

等這個計畫結束後，我們再決定下一個計畫要做什麼，那大概會在明年某個時候進行。所以，這種情況依然存在。至於我們如何使用這些錢，這就像自然而然發生的，我們就像在開闊的田野上一樣。

We find something we like to do. We do -- there is on the open field. We do know that trying to grow our Property-Liability business faster is the cleanest and best shot to improve shareholder value. Other than that, we just -- we make a decision when we get to that point in time. So we don't kind of like sequester it and hold stuff back. It's just it is what it is. And we're -- with this kind of return on equity, there's no harm no foul.

我們找到自己喜歡做的事情。我們有——在開闊的田野上。我們知道，加快財產責任險業務的發展速度是提高股東價值最直接、最好的途徑。除此之外，我們到時候再做決定。所以我們不喜歡把它隔離起來，也不希望它被埋沒。事情就是這樣。而且，有了這樣的股本報酬率，我們做什麼都是穩賺不賠的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Vikram Gandhi, HSBC.

維克拉姆甘地，匯豐銀行。

Hi, good morning and thank you for the opportunity. My first question is around the auto PIF, where it appears that the growth was, to a large extent, driven by non-standard customers. Just wondered if you had any updated thoughts on how we should be thinking about the longevity and more importantly, the profitability of this expense ratio and loss ratio impact from this cohort? Thank you.

您好，早安，感謝您給我這個機會。我的第一個問題是關於汽車PIF的，看起來成長在很大程度上是由非標準客戶推動的。我想知道您對我們應該如何看待這一群體費用率和損失率的長期影響，以及更重要的，其盈利能力方面，是否有任何最新的想法？謝謝。

I don't think I can give you specific attribution to help you do a loss ratio or expense ratio forecast. I think the number just move around too much. What I can say is maybe the underlying question there it's all economic. Like we like the business. It doesn't last as long, but we make good money on it.

我覺得我無法提供具體的歸因資訊來幫助你進行損失率或費用率預測。我覺得這個數字波動太大了。我可以說的是，問題的根本或許在於經濟層面。我們喜歡這家公司。雖然持續時間不長，但我們從中賺取了豐厚的利潤。

We make good money on it relative to what it cost us to get it even though it has a shorter life. So we don't have a targeted only get this customer if they last for 7.2 years or something like that. We just said, can't we make money on this customer for the period of time they will have us. And so we like what we're doing with its all economic.

雖然它的使用壽命較短，但相對於我們的購買成本而言，我們從中獲得的利潤相當可觀。所以我們沒有針對特定客戶設定目標，例如只有當客戶使用年資達到 7.2 年或類似期限時才進行推廣。我們當時就想，難道我們不能在他們與我們合作的這段時間裡從他們身上賺錢嗎？所以，我們很喜歡我們現在所做的一切，這一切都與經濟有關。

It does because it has they shop more higher risk customers because they pay more. That's why they shop more is -- it does have a negative impact on retention, but that's not a negative economic impact, that's just a math problem in terms of trying to do the overall retention number.

確實如此，因為高風險顧客會購買更多商品，因為他們支付的價格更高。這就是為什麼他們購物更多的原因——這確實會對客戶留存率產生負面影響，但這並不是負面的經濟影響，這只是在計算整體留存率時遇到的數學問題。

Okay. That's really helpful. Thank you. And the second question I had was really a simple one on commercial lines. It's something that we don't talk about quite often. But are we at a definitive inflection point? And can we comfortably say that the adverse prior year development is highly unlikely going forward? In short, have resorted most of the backlog issues?

好的。這真的很有幫助。謝謝。我的第二個問題其實很簡單，是關於商業保險的。這是我們很少談論的話題。但我們是否正處於一個決定性的轉捩點？我們能否有把握地說，上一年出現的不利情況在未來極不可能重演？簡言之，大部分積壓問題都已解決嗎？

Well, in commercial lines, in all our reserves actually by category, we think we're adequately reserved when we put the quarter up. Sometimes we get surprised. You're right. In Commercial Lines, we've had some negative surprises over the last couple of years. And we didn't this quarter. So we feel good about that. But we think we're always appropriately reserved.

嗯，就商業險種而言，實際上就我們所有類別的準備金而言，我們認為在公佈季度報告時，我們的準備金是充足的。有時候我們會感到驚訝。你說得對。在商業保險領域，過去幾年我們遇到了一些意想不到的負面情況。我們本季沒有做到這一點。所以我們對此感到很滿意。但我們認為我們的舉止始終保持著恰當的矜持。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bob Jian Huang, Morgan Stanley.

鮑伯·建·黃，摩根士丹利。

Yeah, hi, good morning. First question is revolving around slide 11 where you provided some outlook in terms of various key metrics. But curious, is your view on inflation going forward. I think if we had this conversation six months ago, inflation and tariffs potentially would have been a larger topic. But just curious how you think about inflation as we go forward? Is it much more under control your view today? Do you think that will become -- evolving to a bigger problem? Just curious your thoughts on that.

是啊，你好，早安。第一個問題與第 11 張投影片有關，您在其中對各種關鍵指標進行了一些展望。不過，我很好奇您對未來通膨的看法。我認為，如果我們六個月前進行這場對話，通貨膨脹和關稅可能會成為更大的討論議題。我很好奇您如何看待未來的通貨膨脹？你現在的視野是否比以前更清晰了？你認為這會演變成一個更大的問題嗎？只是好奇你對此有何看法。

Let me make some comments and then toss to John to give you his perspective. So inflation impacts many parts of our business, right? So there's inflation in what it costs to fix and repair car which is -- could be driven by tariffs, could not be driven by tariffs, all depends what happens there. There's inflation in bodily injury costs, which is driven more by litigation environments, which if anybody wants to talk about Florida, happy to talk about that at some point.

我先說幾句，然後把麥克風交給約翰，讓他說說他的看法。所以通貨膨脹會影響我們業務的許多方面，對吧？所以汽車維修費用出現了通貨膨脹，可能是關稅造成的，也可能不是，一切都取決於關稅的走向。人身傷害賠償成本上漲，這主要是由訴訟環境造成的。如果有人想談談佛羅裡達州的情況，我很樂意找個時間談談。

The -- then there's inflation just in our operating expenses, what costs they have people and stuff. And then there's inflation, which has a large impact on our investment portfolio. So we think about it from an enterprise standpoint. So John can give you an answer as to how we think about inflation, where we are today relative to our risk and return profile.

然後，還有通貨膨脹，只是我們的營運費用，他們的人員成本等等。此外，通貨膨脹也會對我們的投資組合產生重大影響。所以我們是從企業的角度來考慮這個問題的。所以約翰可以回答你我們如何看待通貨膨脹，以及我們目前相對於風險和回報狀況的情況。

Yeah. Thanks, Bob. Great question. What I would say is let's start with the investment portfolio and the use of it. One of the takeaways from today's presentation is really how it complements the rest of the business and how we can use it as an additional tool to help balance out risk that we might be seeing across the business. And as you've seen, we've done that by adjusting our interest rate exposure, and that allows us to buffer other things that might be taking place, as Tom just mentioned.

是的。謝謝你，鮑伯。問得好。我想說的是，讓我們先從投資組合及其運用開始。今天演講的重點之一是它如何與公司其他業務相輔相成，以及我們如何將其用作額外的工具來幫助平衡我們在整個業務中可能遇到的風險。正如你所看到的，我們透過調整利率敞口來實現這一點，這使我們能夠緩衝可能正在發生的其他事情，正如湯姆剛才提到的那樣。

In terms of what's going on with inflation, let's take a market view right now. If you go back coming out of COVID, there was a lot of changes in supply chain, a lot of uncertainty you get into the beginning of this year, there are some changes in policies in Washington and that created a lot of uncertainty.

就目前的通膨情勢而言，讓我們從市場角度來看這個問題。回顧新冠疫情爆發以來的情況，供應鏈發生了許多變化，今年年初充滿了不確定性，華盛頓的一些政策變化也造成了極大的不確定性。

What we've seen play out throughout this year is not that inflation is completely gone, but some of what we would call the left tail risk or the uncertainty associated with that is gone. Therefore, markets have calmed down a little bit.

今年以來我們看到的情況是，通膨並沒有完全消失，但我們所說的左尾風險或與之相關的不確定性已經消失了。因此，市場情緒有所緩和。

We think it's a little bit more understood. This can be evidenced somewhat by even the posture of the Fed. The Fed has moved from a tightening cycle to an easing cycle. So they, too, are seeing more of a balance between growth and inflation. And we're acting accordingly.

我們認為現在大家更容易理解一些了。這一點甚至可以從聯準會的立場得到一定程度的體現。聯準會已從緊縮週期轉向寬鬆週期。因此，他們也看到了成長與通膨之間更加平衡的局面。我們正在採取相應行動。

We've -- as you noted in the quarter, looking at the investment portfolio, we've extended duration a little bit. That's a sign that we think maybe some of the big increases in yields are over, and we can capture that additional income for the benefit of shareholders. But we'll keep a watchful eye on it, we just don't know for certain.

正如您在本季所指出的，在審視投資組合時，我們稍微延長了久期。這顯示我們認為收益率的大幅成長可能已經結束，我們可以將這部分額外收入用於股東利益。但我們會密切關注此事，只是目前還不能確定。

This is a pretty big stone that was thrown in the pond, and you're not quite sure how all the ripples will play out. So we're watching it carefully. We've got a lot of monitors both on the underwriting side and the investment side, and we'll stay tuned.

這是一塊丟進池塘裡的大石頭，你不太確定它會激起怎樣的漣漪。所以我們正在密切關注。我們在承保和投資方面都安排了很多監控人員，我們會密切關注。

Let me also jump into bodily injury inflation because I know some of our competitors have talked about changes there. And just let me give an example of talk about Florida. So we really applaud the political leadership in Florida for taking on an important issue that's a difficult issue, which is how do you lower suits against our customers for fender bender accidents. And their courage is really helping Florida consumers save, billions of dollars a year.

我也想談談人身傷害費用上漲的問題，因為我知道我們的一些競爭對手已經談到了這方面的變化。讓我舉個例子來說明佛羅裡達州的情況。因此，我們非常讚賞佛羅裡達州的政治領導層著手處理一個重要且棘手的問題，那就是如何減少針對我們客戶因輕微碰撞事故而提起的訴訟。他們的勇氣確實幫助佛羅裡達州的消費者每年節省了數十億美元。

And we're happy, of course, because our customers are saving money, like we will charge them less, but we're very happy that the fact that they're having to pay less. And at a time when voters are clearly voting with their pocket books. This is really a golden opportunity for other states lean in on that.

當然，我們很高興，因為我們的客戶省錢了，例如我們會降低他們的收費，但我們非常高興的是，他們必須支付更少的費用。而如今，選民們顯然正在用錢包投票。這對其他州來說確實是一個絕佳的機會，其他州應該抓住這個機會。

You've seen Georgia recently picked up and joined the parade. So tort reform may seem arcane from an inflation standpoint but it has the potential to really help consumers deal with increased inflation and other stuff. So it's just a terrific way to help customers.

你們最近已經看到喬治亞州加入了遊行隊伍。因此，從通貨膨脹的角度來看，侵權法改革可能顯得晦澀難懂，但它有可能真正幫助消費者應對不斷上漲的通貨膨脹和其他問題。所以這真是幫助客戶的絕妙方式。

Great. Thank you. I really appreciate that detailed answer. Staying on slide 11, which by the way is a wonderful slide. If we think about just interest rate and the duration of your fixed income portfolio, right? It feels like kind of like in your prior remarks, you made a strategic move to increase that duration.

偉大的。謝謝。非常感謝您如此詳細的解答。繼續觀看第 11 張幻燈片，順便說一句，這張幻燈片很精彩。如果我們只考慮利率和固定收益投資組合的久期，對吧？感覺你之前的發言似乎是為了延長這段時間而採取的策略。

As set fund potentially comes down more -- is there a need to move further to the higher duration part of your fixed income portfolio? Or do you feel that your current duration is pretty good? And then regardless of what the interest rate environment goes five year duration feels appropriate.

隨著固定收益基金可能進一步下降—是否有必要進一步增加固定收益投資組合中久期較長的部分？還是你覺得你目前的持續時間已經相當不錯了？而且，無論利率環境如何變化，五年期限都顯得比較合適。

Let me just deal with one word and then let John pick up on that. There's never a need to do anything on one specific piece of the portfolio, whether it's duration equity ownership or anything else but there's opportunity is the way we look at it as to how we scope risk across the company. Do you want to talk about how you're looking forward?

讓我先處理一個詞，然後讓約翰接著說。我們永遠不需要對投資組合中的某個特定部分採取任何行動，無論是久期權益所有權還是其他任何方面，但我們看待問題的方式是，這其中存在著機會，即我們如何評估整個公司的風險。你想談談你對未來的展望嗎？

Yeah. Bob, again, I would look at the kind of the mosaic that you see on the left-hand side of the page. And these are the things that we will consider when that time comes. One of them is market posture, but there are a bunch of other things that we'll consider too in terms of what's ultimately in the best interest of the entire enterprise and our shareholders. I'll also focus a little bit on your word need.

是的。鮑勃，我建議你再看一下頁面左側的那種馬賽克圖案。屆時，我們將考慮以下事項。其中之一是市場地位，但從最終符合整個企業和股東最佳利益的角度來看，我們還會考慮其他許多因素。我也會稍微關心一下您對文字的需求。

I think sometimes people think when they think of insurance asset managers and portfolio management, there's a need to kind of chase yield in a portfolio. And we fundamentally look at it differently. We're really trying to find the best economic overall return for our shareholders. And that doesn't always mean chasing having to maintain a certain book yield level in the portfolio.

我認為有時人們一想到保險資產管理和投資組合管理，就會覺得需要在投資組合中追求收益。我們看待這個問題的根本方式就不同。我們真正想要的是為股東們找到最佳的整體經濟回報。但這並不代表一定要追求維持投資組合中一定的帳面收益率水準。

So we're going to look at all the things that we can do in the portfolio, whether it's public fixed income, private fixed income, public equity, private equity figure out at a point in time in concert with what's going on at the enterprise what's the best combination of actions to take to position the portfolio. And I think you've seen that play out over time as we move things around in response to all these factors.

因此，我們將審視投資組合中所有我們可以做的事情，無論是公共固定收益、私人固定收益、公共股權或私人股權，並結合企業當時的狀況，找出最佳的行動組合來配置投資組合。我認為隨著時間的推移，你們已經看到，隨著我們根據所有這些因素調整安排，這種情況也逐漸顯現出來。

Thank you. When you look at competition, I would say we're unique in this way. And so one of the big firms comes in and does here's what everybody else has done. And here's what they've changed. And I think their comment was, if it wasn't for you guys, we wouldn't have to come in every year because no other people don't change that much, doesn't make us always right. It doesn't make us -- we're not a hedge fund or an ad that. We just look at it in total and say, how do you manage risk, you manage it for the whole enterprise.

謝謝。從競爭角度來看，我認為我們在這方面是獨一無二的。於是，一家大公司介入，並做了其他公司都做過的事。以下是他們所做的改變。我認為他們的評論是，如果不是你們，我們就不用每年都來，因為其他人變化不大，但這並不意味著我們總是對的。這並不意味著我們——我們不是對沖基金，也不是廣告商。我們從整體來看問題，然後說，如何管理風險？我們要對整個企業進行風險管理。

Got it. Really appreciate the color. Thank you very much, and again loved the slide. So thank you.

知道了。非常喜歡這個顏色。非常感謝，再次強調，我很喜歡那張投影片。所以，謝謝你。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Hi, thanks. Good morning. I just had a question just how you guys are thinking about advertising spend. When I look at the efficiency of ad spend in the third quarter, it looks like it went down quite a bit, if I just am looking at new auto apps versus just dollars spent on advertising. So clearly, you guys are gaining your fair share of the shoppers out there, but just wondering how you're thinking about continuing to ramp that, especially as efficiency looks like it's declining a bit.

您好，謝謝。早安.我只是想問一下，你們是如何考慮廣告支出的。當我查看第三季的廣告支出效率時，如果我只看新的汽車應用程式而不是廣告支出金額，似乎廣告支出效率下降了很多。顯然，你們已經獲得了相當一部分消費者，但我只是想知道你們打算如何繼續擴大市場份額，尤其是在效率似乎有所下降的情況下。

David, that's probably not the best measure of efficiency, I would say. So let me dissect that a little bit. So you have both upper funnel and lower funnel advertising. Upper funnel is really more as streaming TV, stuff like that where you're getting brand consideration. Our brand consideration is up substantially this year or significant and substantial, but it's -- and we like it.

戴維，我認為這可能不是衡量效率的最佳標準。讓我來稍微分析一下。所以，廣告包括漏斗上層廣告，也包括漏斗下層廣告。漏斗上層其實更像是串流電視之類的東西，目的是讓消費者考慮品牌。今年我們的品牌認知度大幅提升，或者說顯著提升，而且——我們很喜歡這種提升。

On the lower funnel, our efficiency is actually up this year versus last year. Last year in the fourth quarter, in particular, we were a little heavy and our efficiency dropped a little bit, but we're still liking. So I'm not sure exactly the math you're looking at, but we think our economic returns on advertising were terrific. We like them.

在銷售漏斗的下半部分，我們今年的效率實際上比去年有所提高。去年第四季度，我們的營運有點繁重，效率也略有下降，但我們仍然感到滿意。我不太清楚你具體指的是哪些數學數據，但我們認為廣告帶來的經濟回報非常可觀。我們喜歡他們。

They're up from last year. And that said, but as I mentioned earlier, this is a game. It's a highly analytical scale game, like you're buying leads in sub-seconds and making decisions, the computer is making a decision to do that. So we feel good about the system we have. That said, it's just like pricing in auto insurance, like every year, there's some new plan you got to do. And so we're working right now, Elizabeth and her team spent four hours yesterday working on a new plan to take it to add some new stuff to take to a new level.

與去年相比有所上升。話雖如此，但正如我之前提到的，這只是一場遊戲。這是一個高度分析性的規模​​遊戲，就像你在不到一秒的時間內購買潛在客戶並做出決策一樣，電腦也在做出相應的決策。所以我們對現有的製度感到滿意。也就是說，這就像汽車保險定價一樣，每年都會有一些新的方案需要你選擇。所以我們現在正在努力，伊麗莎白和她的團隊昨天花了四個小時制定了一個新計劃，要添加一些新內容，將其提升到一個新的水平。

Got it. Okay. Understood. Thanks for that context. And then just my follow-up. Where are we just in New York and New Jersey on the new product filing and maybe opening that up to new business. I think it's obviously -- you guys are putting through rate increases there implemented in the third quarter. So that's going to continue to work through the book.

知道了。好的。明白了。謝謝你提供的背景資訊。然後是我的後續發言。目前紐約州和新澤西州在新產品備案方面進展如何？或許可以考慮向新企業開放這一領域。我認為很明顯——你們正在實施第三季生效的加息措施。所以，這一點會貫穿整本書。

And I think you guys put through another increase in New Jersey. So you guys are obviously getting hit on that, but -- and I guess you guys are still not in the market for new business. So I'm wondering, is there a point where you just say, hey, like we're just not going to wait for this new ASC product to get approved and just continue with our existing product and try to open up to new business?

我認為你們在新澤西州又提高了一次稅率。所以你們顯然受到了影響，但是——我猜你們仍然沒有拓展新業務的打算。所以我想知道，有沒有那麼一個時刻，你會說，嘿，我們不再等待這款新的 ASC 產品獲得批准，而是繼續銷售我們現有的產品，並嘗試開拓新業務？

I'll make a general comment and Mario can jump in on the specifics of where standing right today, I would say we are hopeful that we hope that the regulators see that this is a better product for customers just like Florida took a stand to do something good for customers. We'd like to see New York and New Jersey take a stand for customers by approving it as opposed to thinking they're doing us some sort of favor. Mario?

我先發表一些整體看法，馬裡奧可以就目前的具體情況補充說明。我想說，我們希望監管機構能夠認識到，這對消費者來說是一個更好的產品，就像佛羅裡達州採取了行動，為消費者做了一些好事一樣。我們希望紐約州和新澤西州能站在消費者這邊，批准這項法案，而不是認為他們是在幫我們什麼忙。馬裡奧？

Yeah. So first thing, David, what I'd say is we're making money in both of the states. So we're generating underwriting profits both in New York and New Jersey. So that's a great place to start. And we've already gone beyond the point that you referenced.

是的。大衛，首先我想說的是，我們在這兩個州都賺到錢了。因此，我們在紐約和新澤西都獲得了承保利潤。所以，這是一個很好的起點。而我們已經超越了你提到的那個階段。

And we actually are writing some new business, not as much as we were, but we're not completely down in both of those states because we're not waiting for the ASC approval to open back up. We're going to continue to look at our risk appetite with our existing product if it makes sense for us to open up underwriting guidelines even further. We'll do that.

實際上，我們正​​在拓展一些新業務，雖然不如以前那麼多，但我們在這兩個州的業務並沒有完全停滯，因為我們不需要等待 ASC 的批准就可以重新開業。我們將繼續檢視現有產品的風險承受能力，看看是否有必要進一步放寬核保準則。我們會這麼做。

Our agents are continuing to invest in their agencies to have capacity. And then we're hopeful that the approval of ASC will just take us to the next level in terms of our ability to write even more in New York and New Jersey. But we started that process. It's obviously -- those two states are still a drag and you saw that on the slide to overall policy counts, but we're profitable, which is a much better position to be in. We are writing some new business, we'll evaluate if we can and should be running more. And then as Tom said, we will continue to work with the regulators to get ASC approved and then open back up fully.

我們的代理商正在持續投資其代理機構，以提升服務能力。然後，我們希望 ASC 的批准能讓我們在紐約和新澤西的寫作能力更上一層樓。但我們已經啟動了這個過程。很明顯，那兩個州仍然是拖累因素，這一點從整體政策數量下滑中就能看出來，但我們盈利了，這讓我們處於一個更好的境地。我們正在撰寫一些新的商業計劃，我們會評估是否能夠以及是否應該開展更多業務。正如湯姆所說，我們將繼續與監管機構合作，爭取ASC的批准，然後全面重新開放。

Thank you for your time this morning. We'll keep working on shareholder value by embracing change and being the best of what we do. We'll talk to you next quarter.

感謝您今天上午抽出時間。我們將持續努力提升股東價值，擁抱變革，力求做到最好。我們下個季度再跟你談。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

感謝各位女士、先生參加今天的會議。節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。再會。