Allstate Corp (ALL) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Allstate's first-quarter earnings investor call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, please be aware that this call is being recorded.

您好，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Allstate 第一季收益投資者電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，請注意此通話正在錄音。

And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Allister Gobin, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想介紹今天節目的主持人、投資者關係主管阿利斯特·戈賓 (Allister Gobin)。先生，請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Allstate's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. Yesterday, following the close of the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement, filed our 10-Q and posted related materials on our website at allstateinvestors.com. Today, our management team will share perspective on our strategy and how Allstate is creating shareholder value. And we will have a question-and-answer session.

大家早安。歡迎參加 Allstate 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。昨天，市場收盤後，我們發布了新聞稿和投資者補充文件，提交了 10-Q 表，並在我們的網站 allstateinvestors.com 上發布了相關資料。今天，我們的管理團隊將分享我們的策略觀點以及 Allstate 如何創造股東價值。我們將進行問答環節。

As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will contain non-GAAP measures for which there are reconciliations in the news release and investor supplement and forward-looking statements about Allstate's operations. Allstate's results may differ materially from these statements, so please refer to our 10-K for 2024 and other public documents for information on potential risks.

如同簡報的第一張投影片中所述，我們的討論將包含非 GAAP 指標，這些指標在新聞稿和投資者補充資料以及有關 Allstate 營運的前瞻性聲明中均有說明。Allstate 的結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，因此請參閱我們 2024 年的 10-K 和其他公開文件以取得潛在風險的資訊。

And now I'll turn it over to Tom.

現在我將把時間交給湯姆。

Good morning. Thank you for investing your time with Allstate. I'm going to start with an overview of results and then the progress we're making on transformative growth. Mario will then cover Property-Liability results. John will go through investments and Jesse is going talk about Protection Services.

早安.感謝您在 Allstate 投入時間。我將首先概述結果，然後介紹我們在轉型成長方面的進展。然後，馬裡奧將介紹財產責任結果。約翰將討論投資，傑西將討論保育服務。

Then we'll -- as Allister said, deal with any questions that you have. So let's start on slide 2, which has Allstate strategy and first quarter results. Allstate's strategy, of course, has two components: increase personal property-liability market share and the expand protection provided to customers, which were shown on these two ovals on the left. On the right-hand side, you can see Allstate's strong performance in the first quarter. Revenues were $16.5 billion in the first quarter, up 7.8% compared to the first quarter of 2024.

然後，正如阿利斯特所說，我們將處理您提出的任何問題。那麼讓我們從投影片 2 開始，其中介紹了 Allstate 策略和第一季業績。當然，Allstate 的策略有兩個組成部分：增加個人財產責任市場份額和擴大為客戶提供的保護，這兩個部分顯示在左側的兩個橢圓形上。在右側，您可以看到 Allstate 在第一季的強勁表現。第一季營收為 165 億美元，較 2024 年第一季成長 7.8%。

Allstate generated net income of $566 million in the quarter and adjusted net income of $949 million, which is $3.53 per diluted share. Adjusted net income return on equity was 23.7% over the last 12 months. So we work on shareholder value with a balanced set of priorities: first, generating attractive returns on capital, which you can see from this year -- this quarter's results. Growing policies in force in the Property-Liability and Protection Services businesses will both generate increased earnings and should improve Allstate's valuation multiples. A diversified investment portfolio generates attractive returns on capital, which John will cover.

Allstate 本季淨收入為 5.66 億美元，調整後淨收入為 9.49 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 3.53 美元。過去 12 個月調整後的淨收入股本回報率為 23.7%。因此，我們透過平衡的優先事項來致力於股東價值：首先，產生有吸引力的資本回報，您可以從今年本季的業績中看到這一點。財產責任和保護服務業務中不斷增長的有效政策將產生更高的收益，並應能提高 Allstate 的估值倍數。多元化投資組合可產生可觀的資本回報，約翰將對此進行介紹。

Proactive enterprise risk and return management is also important, and that includes whether that's utilization of reinsurance, our capital transactions or cash returns to shareholders. Mario will discuss the benefits of our approach to reinsurance when we go through Property-Liability. Just as team closed the sale of an Employee Voluntary Benefits business for $2 billion on April 1, so that's not in -- the results of that or not in this quarter, but it's -- because it happened shortly thereafter, we want to make sure we call it out for you. And that's the first of two large sales from that business segment. As you know, we increased the quarterly dividend to $1 a share and instituted a $1.5 billion share repurchase program.

積極主動的企業風險和回報管理也很重要，這包括是否利用再保險、我們的資本交易或向股東提供現金回報。當我們討論財產責任時，馬裡奧將討論我們的再保險方法的好處。正如團隊在 4 月 1 日以 20 億美元的價格完成了員工自願福利業務的出售一樣，這不在本季度的結果中，但是因為它發生後不久，我們希望確保為您公佈這一點。這是該業務部門兩筆大筆銷售中的首筆。如您所知，我們將季度股息提高至每股 1 美元，並實施了 15 億美元的股票回購計畫。

slide 3 is an update on the execution of transformative growth strategy in the Property-Liability business. So there are five integrated components of this strategy to increase market share, one of which is to improve customers' value. And one of the key parts of that is lowering costs. And you can see on the left-hand side, the adjusted expense ratio, which excludes advertising costs, has improved by 6.7% -- 6.7 points rather by eliminating, outsourcing and digitizing work using less real estate and aligning our distribution expenses with customer value. And those lower costs enable us to offer more competitive prices without impacting margins.

投影片 3 是關於財產責任業務轉型成長策略執行的最新情況。因此，增加市場佔有率的策略有五個綜合要素，其中之一就是提高顧客價值。其中一個關鍵部分就是降低成本。您可以在左側看到，調整後的費用率（不包括廣告費用）提高了 6.7%——6.7 個百分點，這是透過消除、外包和數位化工作、減少房地產投入以及將我們的分銷費用與客戶價值相結合而實現的。較低的成本使我們能夠提供更具競爭力的價格，而不會影響利潤。

Substantial progress has also been made on other components, several of which are listed on the right. New Allstate branded Affordable, Simple, Connected auto insurance are now available in 36 states, and we have the companion homeowners product is now available in 6 states. Differentiated Custom 360 middle market standard and preferred auto for independent agents is shown -- is now in 31 states. One of the most significant changes is the expansion of customer access to improved growth, which resulted in increased new business from all channels this quarter versus the first quarter 2024. This effort has three components: improve Allstate agent productivity; expand our direct sales; and then increase independent agent distribution, all of which have been successful.

其他組件也取得了實質進展，其中一些列於右側。全新 Allstate 品牌的「經濟實惠、簡單、互聯」汽車保險現已在 36 個州推出，而我們的配套房屋所有權產品現已在 6 個州推出。差異化客製化 360 中端市場標準和獨立代理商首選車款現已覆蓋 31 個州。最顯著的變化之一是擴大了客戶訪問管道，從而提高了成長速度，這導致本季與 2024 年第一季相比所有管道的新業務都有所增加。這項工作包含三個部分：提高 Allstate 代理商的生產力；擴大我們的直銷；然後增加獨立代理商分銷，這些措施都取得了成功。

Allstate agent productivity has increased. Enhancements to direct capabilities are lower pricing and increased advertising are attracting more self-directed customers. The National General acquisition significantly expanded our presence and capabilities in the independent agent channel. So this quarter, personalized new business was 2.8 million items, a 27% increase over the prior year.

Allstate 代理商的生產力提升。直接能力的增強包括更低的價格和增加的廣告，從而吸引更多的自主客戶。對 National General 的收購極大地擴展了我們在獨立代理管道中的影響力和能力。本季個人化新業務量為 280 萬件，較上年成長 27%。

The S.A.V.E.cprogram, which stands for show Allstate customers value every day, following our acronyms, it's being embraced by employees and agents with a goal of improving 25 million of our actions this year, which builds on last year's success, which was over 20 million. Our objective is to increase customer retention, an important driver of growth. The combination of strong new business levels and an improvement in retention is a path to market share growth. We're beginning to see signs of growth. And so Property-Liability policies in force on a year-on-year business have stopped declining.

S.A.V.E.c 計劃是「向 Allstate 客戶展示每天所珍視的東西」的縮寫，該計劃受到員工和代理人的歡迎，目標是今年改進 2500 萬項行動，在去年超過 2000 萬項成功的基礎上再接再厲。我們的目標是提高客戶保留率，這是成長的重要動力。強勁的新業務水平和保留率的提高相結合是市場份額增長的途徑。我們開始看到成長的跡象。因此，與去年同期相比，財產責任險保單的有效率已停止下降。

And of course, that was due to the significant auto price increases and the economic decision to reduce new business in 2022 and 2023. Sequential growth over the end of 2024 was 0.5 point. So Allstate remains focused on increasing market share in Property- Liability and expanding protection provided to customers.

當然，這是由於汽車價格大幅上漲以及 2022 年和 2023 年減少新業務的經濟決策所造成的。到 2024 年底，連續成長率為 0.5 個百分點。因此，Allstate 仍然專注於增加財產責任險的市場份額並擴大為客戶提供的保障。

Now let me turn it over to Mario.

現在讓我把它交給馬裡奧。

Thanks, Tom. Let's take a look at first quarter Property-Liability underwriting results on slide 4. As you can see from the table on the left, the Property-Liability business generated $360 million of underwriting income this quarter. The combined ratio of 97.4% was 4.4 points above the prior year quarter, primarily due to a $3.3 billion in gross catastrophe losses during the quarter, which was significantly higher than the first quarter of last year. This was partially offset by recoveries on a comprehensive reinsurance program, higher average earned premiums, favorable non-catastrophe prior year reserve reestimates and favorable underlying loss trends.

謝謝，湯姆。讓我們看一下投影片 4 上的第一季財產責任承保結果。從左表可以看出，本季財產責任業務產生了 3.6 億美元的承保收入。綜合比率為 97.4%，比去年同期高出 4.4 個百分點，主要原因是本季巨災損失總額為 33 億美元，遠高於去年第一季。但這被綜合再保險計劃的回收、更高的平均已賺保費、有利的非災難性上年準備金重新估計以及有利的潛在損失趨勢所部分抵消。

The auto combined ratio was 91.3 in the quarter as average earned premium increases outpaced losses driven by favorable physical damage loss cost trends. The underlying homeowners combined ratio, which excludes the impact of catastrophes and prior year reserve reestimates remained in our targeted low 60s range. While there may be fluctuations in catastrophe losses, the homeowners business consistently generates profits with a 10-year recorded combined ratio of 91.5.

由於有利的物理損壞損失成本趨勢推動平均已賺取保費增長超過損失，本季汽車綜合成本率為 91.3。排除災難影響和前一年儲備金重新估算後的基礎房主綜合比率仍處於我們目標的 60% 以下範圍內。雖然災難損失可能會有波動，但房主業務持續產生利潤，10 年記錄的綜合比率為 91.5。

Now let's move to slide 5 to discuss first quarter catastrophe results in more detail. Our claims team worked tirelessly to support over 70,000 customers as they recovered from the devastating California wildfires and a series of severe weather events that impacted multiple regions across the country in the first quarter.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 5，更詳細地討論第一季的災難結果。我們的理賠團隊不知疲倦地為超過 70,000 名客戶提供支持，幫助他們從第一季毀滅性的加州野火和影響全國多個地區的一系列惡劣天氣事件中恢復過來。

The chart on the left depicts gross catastrophe losses as a percent of earned premium for the last 10 years. As you can see, 2025 represents an outlier year that was more than three standard deviations above the mean, driven by the California wildfires represented by the orange bar.

左側的圖表顯示了過去 10 年巨災總損失佔已賺取保費的百分比。如您所見，2025 年是一個異常年份，比平均值高出三個標準差以上，這是由橙色條表示的加州野火造成的。

We generally do not see wildfire activity in the first quarter of the year. Wind and hail events represented by the dark gray bars were above the 5 and 10 year averages, but there is no clear pattern over the last 10 years for these perils. In the table on the right, you can see this quarter's catastrophe loss ratio and number of events by peril compared to 5 year and 10 year averages.

我們通常在一年第一季不會看到野火活動。深灰色條表示的風和冰雹事件高於 5 年和 10 年的平均值，但過去 10 年這些災害並沒有明顯的規律。在右側的表格中，您可以看到本季的災難損失率和按危險分類的事件數量與 5 年和 10 年平均值的比較。

On the second to the last row of the table, you can see the impact of our approach to risk and management, which includes a comprehensive reinsurance program that reduces capital requirements by lowering catastrophe loss tail risk and earnings volatility. In the quarter, we had reinsurance recoveries of $1.1 billion, primarily due to the California wildfires, but recoveries were also generated from aggregate catastrophe losses from events over $50 million that occurred over the past 12 months. As I said earlier, while we expect some quarter-to-quarter volatility in the homeowners line of business, our industry-leading capabilities remain a competitive advantage, and we view homeowners insurance as a growth opportunity.

在表格的倒數第二行，您可以看到我們的風險和管理方法的影響，其中包括一項全面的再保險計劃，該計劃通過降低災難損失尾部風險和收益波動來降低資本要求。本季度，我們的再保險追償額為 11 億美元，主要原因是加州野火，但過去 12 個月內發生的超過 5,000 萬美元的災難損失總額也產生了追償。正如我之前所說，雖然我們預期房主業務線會出現一些季度波動，但我們領先業界的能力仍然是競爭優勢，我們將房屋保險視為一個成長機會。

Turning to slide 6. Let's discuss how expanded access under transformative growth is starting to increase growth. In the chart to the left, you can see the composition of Property-Liability's 37.7 million policies in force. Auto insurance in the dark blue makes up two-third of total policies and ended the quarter with 25.1 million policies in force, which was down 0.4% compared to last year. Homeowners with 7.5 million policies is about 20% of the total and continued to grow this quarter, increasing 2.5% versus prior year. Total Property-Liability policies grew by 0.1% in the quarter. As Tom discussed, expanding distribution to include capabilities across the exclusive agent, direct and independent agent channels is a key component of transformative growth.

翻到幻燈片 6。讓我們討論一下轉型成長下擴大准入如何開始促進成長。在左側的圖表中，您可以看到財產責任險公司 3,770 萬份有效保單的組成情況。深藍色區域的汽車保險佔總保單的三分之二，本季末有效保單數量為 2,510 萬份，與去年相比下降了 0.4%。擁有 750 萬份保單的房主約佔總數的 20%，本季持續成長，比去年增加了 2.5%。本季財產責任險保單總額增加了 0.1%。正如湯姆所討論的，擴大分銷範圍以涵蓋獨家代理商、直接代理商和獨立代理商管道的能力是轉型成長的關鍵組成部分。

The stacked bars in the chart on the right demonstrates the impact of those expanded capabilities. Auto new business applications were 31.2% above prior year with some growth across all three distribution channels. And while relatively evenly distributed across channels, the direct channel generated the most auto new business volume this past quarter.

右側圖表中的堆疊長條圖展示了這些擴展功能的影響。汽車新業務申請比上年增長了 31.2%，三個分銷管道均有所增長。儘管各個通路的分佈相對均勻，但直接通路在過去一個季度產生的汽車新業務量最多。

The increase in new business applications was offset by lower retention, resulting in an overall slight decline in auto policies in force. We continue to focus on improving retention trends by both increasing value and improving interactions with existing customers, which Tom described previously.

新商業申請數量的增加被保留率的降低所抵消，導致有效的汽車保單數量總體略有下降。我們將繼續致力於透過增加價值和改善與現有客戶的互動來改善保留趨勢，正如湯姆之前所描述的。

Homeowners new business also continued to increase, growing by 10% this quarter. Exclusive agents who produce the highest volume of homeowners business continue to bundle at historically high rates, and we're making strong progress in the direct channel. Transformative growth is building momentum, and we are confident that expanded distribution, differentiated products and increased customer value will lead to Property-Liability market share growth.

房主新業務也持續增加，本季成長了10%。為房主提供最多業務的獨家代理商繼續以歷史最高價格捆綁銷售，而且我們在直接渠道方面也取得了長足的進步。轉型成長正在累積動力，我們相信，擴大分銷、差異化產品和提高客戶價值將推動財產責任險市場份額的成長。

Now I'll turn it over to John.

現在我將把話題交給約翰。

Thanks, Mario. Turning to investments on slide 7. I'll cover how our proactive investment management approach creates value. First, I'd like to point out that our portfolio has been designed for resiliency in varying market conditions and it is built to support enterprise risk and return objectives at all times. As you can see from the pie chart, the portfolio is well diversified, allocated largely to public interest-bearing assets with some allocation to performance-based assets, including private equity, private real estate, infrastructure and opportunistic.

謝謝，馬裡奧。轉向投影片 7 上的投資。我將介紹我們的主動投資管理方法如何創造價值。首先，我想指出的是，我們的投資組合旨在適應不同的市場條件，並始終支持企業風險和回報目標。從圓餅圖中可以看出，投資組合分散，主要配置於公共生息資產，也有部分配置於基於績效的資產，包括私募股權、私人房地產、基礎設施和機會性資產。

About 85% of the portfolio is in publicly traded securities, affording us the flexibility to dynamically adjust exposures to manage risk and seize opportunity. We use a proprietary dynamic asset allocation process, which uses an enterprise-wide risk and return lens. Additionally, we lever both internal and external asset class experts to deliver performance that exceeds a passive approach and builds resiliency into the strategy. Our active management has helped us preserve capital in down markets without sacrificing long-term gains. On the bottom left of the slide, you'll see proof points of our success in active portfolio management.

約 85% 的投資組合為公開交易證券，這使我們能夠靈活地動態調整風險敞口以管理風險和抓住機會。我們使用專有的動態資產配置流程，該流程採用企業範圍的風險和回報觀點。此外，我們利用內部和外部資產類別專家來提供超越被動方法的績效，並在策略中建立彈性。我們的積極管理幫助我們在低迷的市場中保住了資本，同時又不犧牲長期收益。在投影片的左下角，您將看到我們在主動投資組合管理方面取得成功的證明點。

Let me describe how this has worked by focusing on late 2021. Auto insurance margins were beginning to decline because of inflation in used car prices and parts. And we felt equity valuations were relatively high. As a result, we took down risk in the portfolio by reducing public equity exposure. Additionally, we mitigated the adverse valuation impacts of rising inflation and rising rates by decreasing the portfolio's fixed income duration.

讓我以 2021 年底為重點來描述一下這項措施的效果。由於二手車價格和零件價格上漲，汽車保險利潤率開始下降。我們認為股票估值相對較高。因此，我們透過減少公開股票敞口來降低投資組合的風險。此外，我們透過減少投資組合的固定收益期限來減輕通貨膨脹和利率上升的不利估值影響。

As bond yields rose, we extended our duration, capturing higher market yields for longer and positioning the portfolio to benefit from rate declines. This is a prime example of our enterprise approach to portfolio. The portfolio is well positioned to face market uncertainties with over 81% in income-generating assets. On the bottom right, you can see our active allocations, including performance-based strategies. Our team of asset managers has delivered performance consistent with upper quartile managers.

隨著債券殖利率上升，我們延長了期限，以更長時間捕捉更高的市場收益率，並使投資組合從利率下降中受益。這是我們企業投資組合方法的典型例子。該投資組合中超過 81% 的資產為創收資產，能夠很好地應對市場不確定性。在右下角，您可以看到我們的主動分配，包括基於績效的策略。我們的資產管理團隊的表現與上四分位管理者一致。

Proactive investment management has consistently enhanced shareholder value, and we continue to work to deliver similarly strong results moving forward.

積極主動的投資管理不斷提高股東價值，我們將繼續努力在未來取得同樣強勁的業績。

Now I'll pass it over to Jesse.

現在我將把它交給傑西。

Thank you, John. Let's move to slide 8 to cover how Protection Services is providing additional growth platforms for Allstate. Allstate invests protection in the flow of commerce through a range of strategic partnerships that include retailers, auto dealers, mobile phone carriers, benefit brokers and financial institutions to deliver protection to customers through product warranties to cover important purchases like automobiles, furniture and consumer electronics. Other examples of the protection we provide include identity protection and recovery services as well as roadside assistance. The largest business in this segment is Allstate Protection Plans, which we acquired at SquareTrade in 2017 for $1.4 billion.

謝謝你，約翰。讓我們前往投影片 8，了解 Protection Services 如何為 Allstate 提供額外的成長平台。Allstate 透過一系列策略合作夥伴關係投資於商業流通保護，這些合作夥伴關係包括零售商、汽車經銷商、行動電話營運商、福利經紀人和金融機構，透過產品保固為客戶提供保護，涵蓋汽車、家具和消費性電子產品等重要購買。我們提供的保護的其他範例包括身分保護和恢復服務以及路邊援助。該領域最大的業務是 Allstate Protection Plans，我們於 2017 年以 14 億美元的價格在 SquareTrade 收購了該公司。

This business provides protection against broker or damaged consumer products, including computers, tablets, TVs, mobile phones, phones, major devices and furniture. On the right side of the slide, you can see the excellent progress we've made in profitably growing Allstate Protection Plans business. Since the acquisition, our customer base has grown over 4 times, and we now serve 162 million customers in 18 countries. The Allstate brand has helped to secure distribution partnerships with large retailers in North America, providing access to a broader customer base through traditional retail channels and e-commerce platforms. Allstate partnered with 5 Fortune 40 companies and customers can now purchase protection plans at several major retailers.

該業務為消費者產品提供對經紀人或損壞的保護，包括電腦、平板電腦、電視、手機、電話、主要設備和家具。在投影片的右側，您可以看到我們在獲利成長的 Allstate Protection Plans 業務方面取得的出色進展。自收購以來，我們的客戶群成長了 4 倍多，目前我們為 18 個國家的 1.62 億客戶提供服務。Allstate品牌協助其與北美大型零售商建立了分銷合作夥伴關係，透過傳統零售通路和電子商務平台接觸更廣泛的客戶群。Allstate 與 5 家財富 40 強公司合作，客戶現在可以在幾家大型零售商處購買保護計劃。

In the past 12 months, the business has generated $162 million in adjusted net income, which is 7x greater than 2018, which was the year after we acquired the business in the first year that it was profitable. The Protection Services segment allows Allstate to build for the future with a broad protection offering suite that provides a diversified source of profitable growth.

在過去的 12 個月中，該業務的調整後淨收入為 1.62 億美元，是 2018 年的 7 倍，2018 年是我們收購該業務後的第一年，當時該公司實現盈利。保護服務部門使 Allstate 能夠透過提供多樣化的獲利成長來源的廣泛保護產品套件來建構未來。

Now I want to wrap up on slide 9. Allstate remains focused on creating shareholder value. Strong underwriting capabilities position Allstate for continued success.

現在我想結束第 9 張投影片。Allstate 仍然專注於創造股東價值。強大的承保能力使 Allstate 能夠持續取得成功。

Transformative growth is positively impacting Property-Liability policies in force, and we remain focused on execution. We take a balanced approach to investment risk and return, and we're building for the future with expanded protection offerings. Excellent capital management will continue to create lasting shareholder value. We remain confident in our strategy and ability to deliver value for shareholders and protection to our customers. Our first quarter results were strong, and we're entering the remainder of 2025 with a solid foundation.

轉型成長對現行的財產責任保險政策產生了正面影響，我們將繼續專注於執行。我們對投資風險和回報採取平衡的態度，並透過擴大保護範圍來建構未來。卓越的資本管理將持續創造持久的股東價值。我們對我們的策略以及為股東創造價值、為客戶提供保護的能力充滿信心。我們第一季的業績表現強勁，我們將以堅實的基礎邁入 2025 年剩餘時間。

With that, I'd like to open it up for your questions.

現在，我想開始回答大家的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Jimmy Bhullar, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的吉米·布拉爾 (Jimmy Bhullar)。

Hey, good morning. So I had a couple of questions, but maybe first starting with just your views on competition in personal auto. Frequency has been pretty favorable for you guys for many of your peers as well. And are you seeing that result in companies getting a little bit more aggressive on pricing? Or do you feel competition fairly rational overall?

嘿，早安。所以我有幾個問題，但也許首先從您對個人汽車競爭的看法開始。對你們以及你們的許多同行來說，頻率都是相當有利的。您是否看到公司在定價方面變得更加積極？或者您覺得整體而言競爭是相當理性的？

Hi, Jimmy, I'll start and then Mario can jump in. First, you're seeing a reduction in the rate of increases in auto insurance this year versus '22, '23 and then it started to come down in '24 and it's a little bit lower this year. So -- which says that people are operating in basic kind of where they want to be from a profitability standpoint. One of the large competitors is still a little bit lagging, taking larger price increases, but they'll catch up. So I think what you can say is the industry is operating in good profitability.

嗨，吉米，我先開始，然後馬裡奧就可以加入。首先，你會發現今年汽車保險的漲幅與 2022 年、2023 年相比有所下降，然後在 2024 年開始下降，今年的漲幅略低。所以——這說明人們從獲利的角度出發，在他們想要的基本範圍內開展業務。其中一家大型競爭對手仍有些落後，價格漲幅較大，但他們很快就會趕上。所以我認為可以說該行業盈利狀況良好。

All of those competitors have the objectives of profitable growth. So I don't see us heading into -- sometimes what you see in the commercial markets, soft markets, where people are chasing volume by lowering rates. So I don't see us moving into an aggressive rate reduction, particularly when you look going forward and the possible impact of tariffs.

所有這些競爭對手都以獲利成長為目標。因此，我認為我們不會陷入商業市場疲軟的局面，人們會透過降低利率來追求交易量。因此，我認為我們不會大幅降低利率，特別是當你展望未來並考慮關稅可能產生的影響時。

Mario, anything you want to add to that?

馬裡奧，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah, Jimmy, I would say that it's really the combination of favorable frequency, which I think we and the industry have experienced and the moderation of physical damage severities. Really, that's been the story. I think that's improved margins broadly. And to Tom's point, I think the competition has leaned into growth more heavily certainly as margins have improved. We still think it's a rational market.

是的，吉米，我想說這確實是有利頻率的結合，我認為我們和行業都經歷過，以及物理損壞嚴重程度的緩和。確實，故事就是這樣的。我認為這大大提高了利潤率。至於湯姆的觀點，我認為隨著利潤率的提高，競爭肯定會更傾向成長。我們仍然認為這是一個理性的市場。

We like our capabilities and our ability to lean into what we've been doing with transformative growth to grow going forward. But I would still characterize it as a rational market from a pricing perspective.

我們喜歡我們的能力以及我們依靠變革性成長來向前發展的能力。但從定價角度來看，我仍然認為這是一個理性的市場。

And Jimmy, I would say in that market, we wrote 2.8 million new piece of the business in Property-Liability last quarter. That's one.

吉米，我想說，在那個市場，我們上個季度在財產責任險業務中新增了 280 萬美元。那是一個。

And then on the PIF count, obviously, you're not raising prices to the same extent as you were before, which means that your persistency should remain good or get better. And then just with more marketing spending, that should help new business volume, which sort of implies that it sort of turned that you've seen in PIF should sustain, but any reasons to believe that the recent improvement would not continue?

然後，就 PIF 計數而言，顯然，您不會像以前那樣提高價格，這意味著您的持久性應該保持良好或變得更好。然後，只要增加行銷支出，就應該有助於增加新業務量，這在某種程度上意味著您在 PIF 中看到的轉變應該會持續下去，但有什麼理由相信最近的改善不會持續下去呢？

Well, there's two pieces to that. Let me address it and Mario, you can jump in here. First, to grow, you're right, we need to write more new business. And then we also need to keep more of the existing customers we have, persistency in our vernacular retention. So new business levels were way up at a percentage versus the first quarter of last year, but they're kind of where we were at the end of last year, which says we're able to sustain this kind of new business volume on an ongoing basis because of the breadth of our distribution, our competitive pricing, our advertising, all the things you mentioned.

嗯，這有兩點。讓我來解決這個問題，馬裡奧，你可以加入。首先，為了發展，您說得對，我們需要開展更多新業務。然後，我們還需要留住更多現有客戶，堅持我們的本土化保留。因此，與去年第一季相比，新業務水平大幅上升了一定百分比，但與去年年底的水平基本持平，這表明我們能夠持續維持這種新業務量，因為我們的分銷範圍廣、定價具有競爭力、廣告投放量大，所有這些你提到的因素都對我們有很大幫助。

So we feel good about where we're at in new business. In retention, it lags much as the way it lagged on price going up. So when we were raising rates, we used to remember showing you the chart that said, Oh, here's what we did this quarter. But keep in mind, it takes about 12 to 18 months to really come into the P&L. The same thing happens to customers and because they don't pay it right away. And even when they do pay it right away, sometimes they don't shift right away.

因此，我們對新業務的現狀感到滿意。在保留方面，它落後了，就像在價格上漲方面落後一樣。因此，當我們提高利率時，我們總會記得向你展示一張圖表，上面寫著，『哦，這是我們本季所做的事情。 ’但請記住，真正進入損益表大約需要 12 到 18 個月。同樣的事情也發生在顧客身上，因為他們沒有立即付款。即使他們立即付款，有時他們也不會立即轉移。

So your retention lags just as it would on the price increase. So we've -- our retention has flattened out, and maybe Mario wants to talk about that. And our efforts in the S.A.V.E. program are to drive it up besides just not taking more rate. We ought to be giving people more over what they're paying.

因此，您的保留率會像價格上漲一樣滯後。因此，我們的保留率已經趨於平穩，也許馬裡奧想談談這一點。以及我們在 S.A.V.E. 的努力。除了不提高利率之外，其他計劃也都在推動利率上漲。我們應該給予人們比他們所支付的更多的東西。

Yeah. Let me just maybe do a quick double-click on retention because I think the new business volume that we disclosed is pretty self-explanatory. On retention, Jimmy, qualitatively, what I would say is it's down year-over-year, so Q1 to Q1, but as Tom indicated, it's stabilized in the same zone really that it's been over the past couple of quarters in Q1. Some of that is because there's less rate activity in the system. But I think our view is while less rate will help, we're not waiting for that to improve retention.

是的。讓我快速雙擊一下保留率，因為我認為我們揭露的新業務量是不言而喻的。關於留存率，吉米，從品質上講，我想說的是，與去年同期相比，第一季度有所下降，但正如湯姆指出的那樣，它實際上已經穩定在與第一季過去幾個季度相同的水平上。部分原因是系統中的利率活動較少。但我認為我們的觀點是，雖然較低的利率會有所幫助，但我們不會等待利率降低來提高保留率。

The S.A.V.E. program is intended to favorably impact customer interactions across at least 25 million customers. One of the components is to improve affordability for customers by proactively engaging them to make sure that they've got the right coverage at the right discounts, things like deductibles and so on, and they can get the best possible price from us, which we believe will help retention.

S.A.V.E.該計劃旨在對至少 2500 萬客戶的客戶互動產生積極影響。其中一個措施是提高客戶的負擔能力，透過主動與客戶接觸，確保他們以適當的折扣獲得適當的保險範圍，例如免賠額等，並且他們可以從我們這裡獲得最優惠的價格，我們相信這將有助於留住客戶。

The other part of it is just to improve the overall customer experience and how they interact with us. So we're leaning into that, as Tom mentioned earlier, both through our employees, our agency owners to really proactively engage with customers, improve the experience, improve affordability.

另一部分只是為了改善整體客戶體驗以及他們與我們互動的方式。因此，正如湯姆之前提到的，我們傾向於透過我們的員工、我們的代理商所有者真正主動地與客戶互動，改善體驗，提高可負擔性。

And that, along with a more stable rate environment, our intent is to have that drive improved retention.

而且，隨著利率環境更加穩定，我們的目的是提高保留率。

Rob Cox, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的羅布·考克斯（Rob Cox）。

Hey, thanks. My first question, maybe a similar line of questioning, but the new issued applications, as you mentioned, accelerated meaningfully in the quarter. I'm just curious if you think this level of new apps is being flattered by an unusually high amount of shopping or if you think this level or higher can actually be maintained with further advertising investment and product rollout?

嘿，謝謝。我的第一個問題，也許是類似的問題，但正如您所說，本季新發布的申請數量顯著增加。我只是好奇，您是否認為這種水平的新應用程式是由於異常高的購物量而受到推崇，或者您認為透過進一步的廣告投資和產品推出實際上可以維持這種水平或更高的水平？

Well, first, as I mentioned, Rob, that it's -- the new business levels this quarter were similar to what we had towards the end of last year. So we are maintaining it, and we're comfortable there. Our appetite depends on what states we're in, in advertising. So we want to grow as fast as we can. We don't really have any capacity constraints right now in terms of number of agents, number of people in the direct -- in the call centers or on the web or independent agents.

嗯，首先，正如我所提到的，羅布，本季的新業務水準與去年年底的水準相似。因此，我們正在維護它，並且我們在那裡感到很舒服。我們的胃口取決於我們在廣告中所處的狀態。所以我們希望盡快成長。就代理數量、直接聯繫人員數量（呼叫中心或網路或獨立代理）而言，我們目前實際上沒有任何容量限制。

So rolling out affordable, simple, connected products are what really drives most of the growth. We mentioned we're not in all states yet. So as we roll that out in the rest of the auto states and we get homeowners to go with it, it's a much experience, better product. So we think we still have upward potential. Do I think it's going to be 27%?

因此，推出價格實惠、簡單且互聯的產品才是真正推動大部分成長的動力。我們提到我們尚未覆蓋所有州。因此，當我們在其他汽車州推出這項服務並讓房主接受它時，它將成為一種體驗更豐富、更優質的產品。因此我們認為我們仍然具有上升潛力。我認為會是 27% 嗎？

No, because it wasn't 27% over the fourth quarter. So do I think we have a great distribution system that's scalable, 100%.

不，因為第四季的成長率沒有達到 27%。所以我認為我們有一個可擴展性極佳的分銷系統，可達 100%。

Got it. And then maybe following up on the auto underlying loss ratio. I was just wondering if there's anything unusual embedded, maybe any tariff impacts or anything like that contemplated in the loss ratio. I noticed it was kind of one of the first quarters in a long time that the underlying loss ratio actually went up in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter.

知道了。然後也許會跟進汽車底層損失率。我只是想知道是否存在任何不尋常的情況，也許是任何關稅影響或損失率中考慮的類似因素。我注意到，這是很長一段時間以來，第一季的潛在損失率相對於第四季首次上升。

Let me -- on auto insurance property, I'll make comments. Mario can jump in here. First, when you evaluate it at the absolute level, it's outstanding. We are getting really strong returns on capital. We're better than our targets.

讓我——就汽車保險財產發表一下評論。馬裡奧可以跳到這裡。首先，從絕對層面來評價，它是傑出的。我們獲得了非常豐厚的資本回報。我們比我們的目標做得更好。

It's broad-based across the country and by risk level inside the auto book. So we're feeling really good about where it is. I think quarterly comparisons are really not that meaningful, to be honest. You got all kinds of things happening. And fourth quarter has got different kind of weather than the first quarter.

它涵蓋全國範圍，並根據汽車帳簿內的風險等級進行分類。所以我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。說實話，我認為季度比較真​​的沒有那麼有意義。各種各樣的事情都在發生。第四季的情況與第一季有所不同。

So you have frequency bounces. And then you have, of course, just weather changes, not inside individual quarters. And then the type of weather and the type of accidents also changes the mix of your claims, which has some impact on severity. And those can easily move a combined ratio by 1 point to 2 points. So I don't get that focused on it.

因此會出現頻率反彈。當然，這只是天氣變化，而不是單一房間內部的變化。然後，天氣類型和事故類型也會改變索賠的組合，這對嚴重程度有一定影響。這些很容易就能讓綜合比率變動 1 個百分點到 2 個百分點。所以我沒有那麼集中精力。

If you want to look at it on a longer basis, first quarter looks great. We like where we're at. Mario, what would you add about like breadth and depth?

如果從更長遠的角度來看，第一季看起來很棒。我們喜歡我們現在的處境。馬裡奧，關於廣度和深度，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. Look, I think when we look at auto profitability, certainly, in absolute terms, the combined ratio is performing exceptionally well. And when we look at it at a state level, with literally a handful of exceptions, we like where our price position is and our rate adequacy and feel really good about profit levels across the vast majority of states that we operate in. The trend on profitability is really unchanged from the last couple of quarters. We continue to earn the rate that we implemented over the last 12 months.

是的。看起來，我認為當我們看汽車盈利能力時，當然，從絕對值來看，綜合比率表現非常好。當我們從州一級來看時，除了少數例外，我們對自己的價格定位和費率適足性感到滿意，並且對我們經營的絕大多數州的利潤水平感到非常滿意。獲利趨勢與過去幾季相比確實沒有變化。我們將繼續賺取過去 12 個月實施的利率。

And then we look at loss cost, the combination of favorable frequency and physical damage severities and loss costs kind of flattening out, you actually saw a drop in pure premium year-over-year and that drove a pretty substantial improvement in the underlying combined ratio in auto. But we feel good about auto profitability. And that's one of the things that as margins improved over the course of last year, we opened up markets and we started to expand our risk appetite for new business, and we're going to continue to do that because we feel good about where we're positioned from a margin perspective.

然後我們看看損失成本，有利的頻率和物理損壞嚴重程度以及損失成本的結合趨於平穩，你實際上看到純保費同比下降，這推動了汽車基礎綜合比率的大幅改善。但我們對汽車獲利能力感到滿意。這是隨著去年利潤率的提高，我們開拓了市場，並開始擴大對新業務的風險偏好的事情之一，我們將繼續這樣做，因為從利潤率的角度來看，我們對自己的定位感到滿意。

Greg Peters, Raymond James.

格雷格彼得斯、雷蒙詹姆斯。

Morning, everyone.I would like to pivot to slide 3 of your presentation where you highlight the improvement in the adjusted expense ratio since 2018. And I'm just trying to understand what your objective will be, say, for the next five years. Do you anticipate bringing this down below 20%? And inside the expense ratio for the first quarter, we did note that the -- it looks like the advertising expense is down sequentially a little bit. So I know that's outside of the adjusted expense ratio, but maybe you can tie in with your answer or perspective on advertising expense.

大家早安。我想轉到您簡報的第 3 張投影片，其中您強調了自 2018 年以來調整後費用率的改善。我只是想了解你的目標是什麼，比如說，未來五年的目標是什麼。您預計這個數字會降到 20% 以下嗎？在第一季的費用率中，我們確實注意到——廣告費用似乎比去年同期略有下降。所以我知道這超出了調整後的費用率，但也許您可以結合您的回答或對廣告費用的看法。

So we haven't put a target out for expense, but our goal should always be to lower expenses. And that's both as a percentage and in an absolute dollar basis. So some of the decline, of course, as you raise prices faster than the cost of inflation, then your expense ratio goes down. That's not the way to really get there for your customers. So we've made -- but we've made substantial cuts in absolute expenses, and we're going back at it again.

因此，我們沒有設定費用目標，但我們的目標始終是降低費用。這既是百分比，也是絕對美元金額。當然，隨著價格上漲速度超過通貨膨脹成本，費用率就會下降。這並不是真正滿足客戶需求的方法。因此，我們已經大幅削減了絕對開支，並且又重新開始了。

Just is -- now just starting to lead a new effort to go back. And so we don't have a goal, but expect it to keep coming down. We think with our new technology platform and the new technologies available out there that there is the opportunity to digitize and eliminate a number of processes that are done by people today which will be faster, better and cheaper for customers. So we're back at it again. We're excited about it.

只是——現在才剛開始領導一項新的回歸努力。因此，我們沒有目標，但希望它能持續下降。我們認為，借助我們的新技術平台和現有的新技術，我們有機會將許多目前由人們完成的流程數位化並消除它們，從而為客戶提供更快、更好、更便宜的服務。因此我們又回到了原點。我們對此感到很興奮。

We think there's a good opportunity there. On advertising, it depends how good we think the opportunities are to grow, where we're trying to get into markets, whether we're launching new products. So the fourth quarter was a high watermark for us. We were testing some new stuff. I don't expect it to stay at that fourth quarter level really any time this year that we will really lean in to see how much we could drive growth in its workforce.

我們認為這是一個很好的機會。對於廣告來說，這取決於我們認為成長機會有多好、我們試圖進入哪個市場、我們是否會推出新產品。因此第四季對我們來說是一個高水位。我們正在測試一些新東西。我並不認為它會在今年任何時候停留在第四季度的水平，我們將真正關注我們能在多大程度上推動勞動力的成長。

And what we'll do is to the extent it's economic, we'll continue to spend. If it's not economic, then we won't. And that means both are you getting a good return? Are people shopping, buying your product, you have a competitive price? And how do you feel about your margins going forward?

我們所做的就是，在經濟允許的範圍內，我們將繼續投入。如果經濟上不划算，我們就不會這麼做。這是否意味著你們雙方都獲得了良好的回報？人們是否在購物、購買您的產品，您的價格是否有競爭力？您對未來的利潤率有何看法？

We feel really good about our margins going forward in both auto and home. So you should expect to see us do more there.

我們對汽車和家居領域未來的利潤率感到非常滿意。因此，您應該期待看到我們在那裡做更多的事情。

Okay. I guess for my follow-up question, I'll pivot to the slide 5, which is the catastrophe loss slide. I thought your chart there on the left is interesting in the context of framing what goes beyond the one standard deviation and two standard deviations. So inside that disclosure, a couple of things. First of all, it looks like there could be some material subrogation event for you on the wildfire.

好的。我想對於我的後續問題，我將轉到投影片 5，即災難損失投影片。我認為左邊的圖表很有趣，因為它可以解釋超出一個標準差和兩個標準差的內容。因此，在這份披露中，有幾件事。首先，看起來在野火事件中你可能會遇到一些實質的代位求償事件。

So I'm just curious how that might change your perspective on whether this is a two standard deviation or a three standard deviation event? And then secondly, in your first quarter supplement, you provided a reinsurance update, and it looks like you raised some of the limits, so maybe you can talk a little bit about that.

所以我只是好奇這會如何改變你對這是一個兩個標準差還是三個標準差事件的看法？其次，在第一季的補充報告中，您提供了一份再保險更新，看起來您提高了一些限額，所以也許您可以談談這一點。

Well, thank you for liking our slide. We work hard on them. Mario, do you want to take the first part? And Jesse, do you want to take the reinsurance update?

好吧，感謝您喜歡我們的幻燈片。我們為此付出了巨大的努力。馬裡奧，你想參加第一部嗎？傑西，你想了解一下再保險的最新情況嗎？

Yeah. So Greg, the first thing I'd say that, obviously, the chart on page 5, those are gross losses, so they're not net of reinsurance. And the reinsurance recoveries we did disclose in the first quarter, the $1.1 billion, the bulk of which was California wildfire related. And the net loss does not consider any subro recoveries. Having said that, to the extent there are potential subro recoveries from at-fault parties, we would certainly want to pursue those.

是的。格雷格，我首先要說的是，顯然，第 5 頁的圖表是總損失，因此它們不是再保險淨額。我們在第一季披露的再保險追償金額為 11 億美元，其中大部分與加州野火有關。淨損失不考慮任何次級追償。話雖如此，只要有過失方有可能獲得間接賠償，我們當然願意去追求。

And there is that new -- the wildfire fund that was established by the utilities in California. I think it's funded at about $15 billion or so with additional capacity beyond that. So to the extent there is subro that we can pursue, we would certainly do that. But we have not reflected any of that in our numbers. And ultimately, the dollars would recover given that we're into the reinsurance layers, we'll go to reinsurers.

還有新措施——加州公用事業公司設立的野火基金。我認為它的資金約為 150 億美元左右，並且還有額外的產能。因此，只要我們可以追求 subro，我們肯定會這樣做。但我們的數據中還沒有反映出這些。最終，當我們進入再保險層級時，美元將會恢復，我們會去找再保險公司。

It's also our customers' money as well. And I think that to the extent it provides relief from a rating perspective, it's the right thing to do for our customers.

這也是我們客戶的錢。我認為，從評級角度來看，這在一定程度上減輕了客戶的負擔，這對我們的客戶來說是正確的做法。

Now on the reinsurance program, just a reminder to everyone, we do post a very robust disclosure on the changes so that you can find on our investor website, we did place the bulk of the national program this quarter. And so we've announced that. You can see -- and I'm sure this is what you saw, Greg, reinsurance limit purchase was up $1.5 billion, that's about 21%. And that now we have single event protection up to $9.5 billion, up from just under $8 billion last year on a per occurrence basis. We're doing that really to reflect the change in the risk profile, right?

現在關於再保險計劃，只是提醒大家，我們確實發布了關於變化的非常詳細的披露，以便您可以在我們的投資者網站上找到，我們確實在本季度實施了大部分國家計劃。因此我們宣布了這一消息。您可以看到——我相信這就是您所看到的，格雷格，再保險限額購買增加了 15 億美元，約佔 21%。現在我們的單次事件保障金額高達 95 億美元，高於去年單次事件保障金額的 80 億美元。我們這樣做確實是為了反映風險狀況的變化，對嗎？

We buy reinsurance based on our risk and return framework in our economic capital model. And the market in the placement went very well. We split it evenly between traditional markets and the catastrophe bond or the ILS market and had good support for the program this year. On a risk-adjusted basis, the cost will be down, which I think is a really good outcome, and it helps protect us from single event risk like we saw recently. We'll announce the remainder of the program that gets placed in Q2 at the end of next quarter.

我們根據經濟資本模型中的風險和回報架構購買再保險。此次配售的市場表現非常良好。我們將其平均分配到傳統市場和巨災債券或 ILS 市場，並在今年為該計劃提供了良好的支援。在風險調整的基礎上，成本將會下降，我認為這是一個非常好的結果，它有助於保護我們免受最近看到的單一事件風險的影響。我們將在下個季度末公佈第二季度的剩餘計劃。

And that's -- just as a reminder, that's the Florida program and then the National General Lender Placed program of reinsurance gets done this quarter. So all in all, again, we have very detailed disclosure that we put out. But in general, we increased the total limit that we bought this year to reflect the expansion of the homeowners, both on the expansion of the risk.

這只是提醒一下，這是佛羅裡達州的計劃，然後是國家一般貸款人安置的再保險計劃，將於本季度完成。總而言之，我們再次發布了非常詳細的披露。但總體來說，我們今年增加購買的總限額，是為了體現房主規模的擴大，無論是在風險的擴大上。

Greg, let me -- I'll just add on it. It's really -- the homeowners business is growing. I mean there's a lot of conversation appropriately on auto insurance growth and we're, of course, highly focused on that. But the home insurance business, just units were up 2.5 points. And as far as I know, we're not adding 2.5% to the housing stock in the United States, which means we're picking up unit share.

格雷格，讓我——我只是想補充一下。確實——房主業務正在成長。我的意思是，關於汽車保險成長的討論有很多，當然我們也高度關注這一點。但家庭保險業務，單單單位就上漲了2.5個百分點。據我所知，我們不會在美國的房屋存量上增加 2.5%，這意味著我們正在增加單位份額。

And then it's mid-teens growth in revenue. That's a growth business. And I feel like it's been overlooked by some people. We've had some shareholders recently saying, no, that's a story not being told. So I'm trying to tell the story on their behalf and our behalf. It is a good growth business, which is why we need more reinsurance.

然後收入就會出現十五六倍的成長。這是一項成長型業務。我覺得有些人忽略了這一點。最近，一些股東對我們說，不，這是一個沒有被說出來的故事。所以我試著代表他們和我們講述這個故事。這是一項具有良好成長潛力的業務，這也是我們需要更多再保險的原因。

Thanks for the additional detail.

感謝您提供的更多詳細資訊。

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。

Hey, yes, good morning. So maybe one real quick on how we should think about essentially the capital position, right? So you bought back about $100 million of stock this quarter. Just given the market volatility, your fairly stable capital position, I'm curious how you should think about capital allocation, but also capital return at this point of the junction given market has been volatile, your shares have been moving around.

嘿，是的，早安。那麼也許我們應該快速思考一下資本狀況，對嗎？所以你本季回購了約 1 億美元的股票。考慮到市場的波動性和您相當穩定的資本狀況，我很好奇您應該如何考慮資本配置，考慮到市場波動，您的股票在這個交匯點的資本回報也一直在波動。

I'll start and maybe, Jesse, you want to jump in. First, we're very comfortable where we're at. We've got plenty of capital. We've got -- it's in the right places. We're earning good returns.

我先開始，也許，傑西，你想加入。首先，我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。我們擁有充足的資本。我們已經把它放在正確的地方了。我們獲得了豐厚的回報。

We've got the right risk profile. As John talked about, we look at our capital position relative to the whole enterprise in terms of our investment risk as well as our insurance risk. And we're really comfortable with where we're at there. We're also comfortable with our program of how we're deploying it, first, into growth and because that generates the kind of ROEs that we talked about earlier in the conversation. Secondly, to the extent we need -- don't -- we have cash, we can give it to investors and we do.

我們已經掌握了正確的風險狀況。正如約翰所說，我們從投資風險和保險風險的角度來審視我們相對於整個企業的資本狀況。我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。我們對我們的部署計劃也感到滿意，首先，將其用於成長，因為這會產生我們在先前的對話中談到的那種 ROE。其次，只要我們需要——我們沒有——我們有現金，我們可以把它提供給投資者，而我們也確實這麼做了。

And we have a great track record of doing that. We're comfortable with the $1.5 billion share repurchase program. We're $100 million in. So it's a little early to start talking about what else we're going to do. I don't know, Jesse, anything else you want to add?

我們在這方面有著優異的成績。我們對 15 億美元的股票回購計畫感到滿意。我們投資了 1 億美元。所以現在談論我們還要做什麼還為時過早。我不知道，傑西，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. I think you hit it, Tom. We use -- we've talked about this, Bob. We use a sophisticated economic capital framework to look at our capital position. We're doing that continually and looking at priorities the way that Tom laid out.

不。我認為你成功了，湯姆。我們使用——我們已經討論過這個了，鮑勃。我們使用複雜的經濟資本框架來審視我們的資本狀況。我們一直在這樣做，並按照湯姆提出的方式考慮優先事項。

So you saw the announced repurchase, as Tom said, we're $100 million to $1.5 billion. So we've got a little bit of time on that. We'll continue to watch where we sit relative to our target.

所以你看到了宣布的回購，正如湯姆所說，我們的回購金額是 1 億到 15 億美元。所以我們在這個問題上還有一點時間。我們將繼續觀察我們相對於目標的處境。

Okay. No, that's very helpful. So it's not -- you're not front-loading April for buybacks, I guess, is what I'm trying. Is that right?

好的。不，這非常有幫助。所以，我想，你不會在四月預先投入資金進行回購，這就是我正在嘗試的。是嗎？

From a pace perspective, we don't put forward guidance out on how we're going to repurchase stock. What we do is we like to have a continual presence in the market with our repurchases, Bob. So you can see what we did in Q1 and sort of project out the meeting where we announced, it was the end of February, right? So we effectively did the $100 million over about a month. And we like to have that consistent presence in the market.

從速度角度來看，我們不會提出有關如何回購股票的指導。我們所做的是，我們希望透過回購在市場上保持持續的存在，鮑伯。所以你可以看到我們在第一季做了什麼，以及我們宣布的會議預測，那是在二月底，對吧？因此，我們在大約一個月內有效地賺到了 1 億美元。我們希望在市場上保持穩定的地位。

So I would say on a go-forward basis, we'll continue to evaluate and adjust as needed, but that gives you some sense for the pace of what we did in the first quarter.

因此我想說，在未來，我們會繼續根據需要進行評估和調整，但這可以讓您了解我們在第一季所做工作的進度。

Okay. No, thank you. Okay. So my second question, just maybe thinking about California, obviously, some competitors are facing more challenges in the homeowner environment. If homeowner competitors were to pull back, does that disrupt their bundling strategy in your view? Do you think the current environment in California changes the competitive environment there and then consequently maybe makes an opening for you? I understand that California previously has been a challenge, but maybe just any color there.

好的。不，謝謝。好的。所以我的第二個問題是，也許只是考慮加州，顯然，一些競爭對手在房主環境中面臨更多挑戰。如果房主競爭對手撤退，您認為這是否會擾亂他們的捆綁策略？您是否認為加州當前的環境會改變那裡的競爭環境，從而為您帶來機會？我知道加州以前是一個挑戰，但也許任何顏色在那裡都是如此。

Yes, and partly. How about that? Mark, you fill in there. So yes, it will impact their auto business, if that's what you're referred to. And so in particular, State Farm is struggling given their losses there.

是的，部分如此。那怎麼樣？馬克，你填寫一下。是的，如果您指的是汽車業務的話，這會影響他們的汽車業務。尤其是 State Farm 因在那裡遭受損失而陷入困境。

And so as they have to restrict the amount of business, it will impact their auto business. We know it, we went through it, and we went through it in California from 2007. And -- but for a couple of years, right up until this year, which is why our market share is so low, we went through it in Florida when we went from a 13% or 12% share to like 2% in homeowners, and we felt it in our auto book. Now we've recovered, and we have great share in Florida, and we're growing in Florida. So they're not down and out.

因此，由於他們必須限制業務量，這將影響他們的汽車業務。我們知道這一點，我們經歷過這一點，我們從 2007 年起就在加州經歷過這一點。但有幾年，直到今年，這就是我們的市場份額如此之低的原因，我們在佛羅裡達州經歷了這種情況，我們的房主份額從 13% 或 12% 下降到 2%，我們在汽車賬簿上感受到了這一點。現在我們已經恢復，我們在佛羅裡達州擁有很大的市場份額，而且我們在佛羅裡達州還在成長。所以他們並沒有陷入窮困潦倒的境地。

It will just be a bump that they have to deal with. So yes, it will be something that will change the competitive dynamics. Is it going to change our interest in writing homeowners in California? I doubt it. And we'll see what happens in the subsequent reforms.

這只是他們必須處理的一個問題。所以是的，它將會改變競爭態勢。這會改變我們寫信給加州房主的興趣嗎？我對此表示懷疑。我們將拭目以待後續改革將會發生什麼事。

But we recovered $1 billion of reinsurance. And we got none of that back in rates. We paid for all of that from our shareholders. So until we get to a place where our costs are actually reflected in what we can charge, we're not going to be interested in selling homeowners at a loss for our shareholders. On the auto business, Mario, maybe you want to talk about the auto business--

但我們收回了10億美元的再保險。但我們並沒有從利率中收回任何錢。所有這些費用都是由股東支付的。因此，除非我們的成本真正反映在收費中，否則我們不會對以虧本的價格向股東出售房屋感興趣。關於汽車產業，馬裡奧，也許你想談談汽車產業——

Yes. In terms of auto, we've talked a lot over the past, call it, 12 to 18 months, about three states, in particular, California, New York, New Jersey and the profit challenges we had. With California, I think we've largely cycled our way through that. California -- our California auto insurance is actually generating an underwriting profit. We are open across all channels to write new auto business in California.

是的。在汽車方面，過去 12 到 18 個月裡，我們討論了很多關於三個州，特別是加州、紐約州、新澤西州以及我們面臨的利潤挑戰。對於加州，我想我們已經基本完成了這個過程。加州——我們的加州汽車保險實際上正在產生承保利潤。我們透過各種管道在加州開展新的汽車業務。

We got a significant rate approved early last year. We also recently got approval for another 6.9%, which we'll implement in May. So our approach in California has always been to try to stay ahead of loss cost as best we can, and the team is doing a really good job of doing that. And we're operating in California, just like we are in other states that we're open because we like where we're positioned from a profit standpoint, and we're open for business and looking to grow the auto business in California.

我們在去年年初就獲得了一項重要利率的批准。我們最近還獲得了另外 6.9% 的批准，我們將於 5 月實施。因此，我們在加州的做法一直是盡力降低損失成本，而且團隊在這方面做得非常好。我們在加州開展業務，就像我們在其他州一樣，我們之所以開放是因為從利潤的角度來看，我們喜歡我們所處的位置，我們對業務持開放態度並希望在加州發展汽車業務。

Excellent, really appreciate it and congrats on the quarter.

非常好，非常感謝，恭喜本季取得佳績。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的伊莉絲‧格林斯潘。

Good morning. My first question is, I guess, on the March policy growth, right? You guys obviously turned the corner with growth in the first quarter. My question is specific to auto. Did you guys observe perhaps any pull forward? Were there perhaps cars being purchased in advance of tariffs?

早安.我的第一個問題是關於三月的政策成長，對嗎？你們顯然在第一季實現了成長。我的問題是關於汽車的。你們有沒有觀察到任何向前的拉動？是否有人在關稅實施前購買汽車？

And did that impact any of the numbers in March from a policy growth perspective?

從政策成長角度來看，這對三月的數據有影響嗎？

I don't think we would be able to tell. So shopping is obviously up in total. It's up in part because what the industry had to do to raise rates to deal with the pandemic-related inflation. It's unclear that it's really moved a lot of people to buy cars. You have seen a slight uptick in used car prices recently.

我認為我們無法知道。因此，整體購物量顯然有所增加。部分原因是，該行業必須提高利率來應對與疫情相關的通貨膨脹。目前還不清楚這是否真的促使許多人購買汽車。最近您發現二手車價格略有上漲。

Whether that's in anticipation, who knows.

這是否是預料之中的事，誰知道呢。

Okay. And then my follow-up, I guess, is on the tariffs, right? It seems like it will be about a mid-single-digit increase to severity. As you guys think about that potential increase, and my sense is probably we'll start to see it over the summer, correct me if I'm wrong. But as you guys think about that increase and where your margins are today in your auto book, are you going to either absorb it with -- potentially absorb it in your margins?

好的。那麼我的後續問題是關於關稅的，對嗎？看起來嚴重程度將會出現大約個位數的成長。當你們考慮這種潛在的成長時，我的感覺是我們可能會在夏天開始看到它，如果我錯了，請糾正我。但是，當你們考慮這種增長以及你們汽車賬簿上的當前利潤率時，你們是否會將其吸收 - 可能將其吸收到你們的利潤中？

Or would you look to take additional price to offset any increase that we potentially see from the tariffs?

或者您希望透過增加價格來抵消關稅可能帶來的任何上漲？

So we're going to manage through whatever the impacts of tariffs are just as we did the inflation that came through the pandemic. So our objectives are to give customers a good competitive price, make sure we get a return for our shareholders and to grow. So that's our -- those are our objectives. Right now, of course, it's unclear when the actual impact will be, to your point. It takes a while to rattle through new car prices, used car prices, dealers, people fixing cars to us replacing cars.

因此，我們將應對關稅帶來的一切影響，就像我們應對疫情帶來的通貨膨脹一樣。因此，我們的目標是向客戶提供具有競爭力的價格，確保為股東帶來回報並實現成長。這就是我們的目標。當然，就您的觀點而言，目前還不清楚實際影響何時會出現。我們需要花一些時間來了解新車價格、二手車價格、經銷商、汽車修理人員以及汽車更換人員。

And the pandemic, of course, it happened incredibly rapidly. So we had a 60% increase in used car prices in about less than two years, I think, Mario, or something like that. And so we are factoring in the fact that we think there will be increases in cost, but we don't know what those are yet. So it's difficult to say exactly what we would do in prices or even what the percentage is. You quoted about mid-single digits.

當然，疫情發生得非常迅速。所以，我想，在不到兩年的時間裡，二手車價格上漲了 60%，馬裡奧，或類似的情況。因此，我們考慮到成本會增加，但我們還不知道具體是多少。因此，很難確切地說出我們會對價格採取什麼措施，甚至很難說出具體百分比是多少。您引用的數字大約是中位數個位數。

I think you were like 5 points. There are industry estimates that are higher than that. And the answer is nobody really knows. So I'll just describe what we're likely to do. So our costs are likely to be higher.

我認為你得了 5 分。業內人士的估計數字要高於這個數字。答案是沒有人真正知道。所以我只會描述我們可能要做的事情。因此我們的成本可能會更高。

I agree with that, particularly auto repair and replacement costs are likely to increase. The cost to repair homes is also likely to increase, but our analysis, which we've done tons of is that it's probably less -- maybe it's half of what will happen in auto insurance, so we're feeling -- we're more focused on auto than we are in home. The -- we are hopeful that the trend to reduce, what I would call, the ramping costs of offender vendor losses will take hold, so that should offset some of the increases.

我同意這一點，特別是汽車維修和更換成本可能會增加。房屋維修費用也可能會增加，但經過大量的分析，我們發現維修費用可能較少——可能只有汽車保險費用的一半，因此我們感覺——我們對汽車的關注度高於對房屋的關注度。我們希望，減少我所說的罪犯供應商損失成本的趨勢能夠持續下去，從而抵消部分增加的成本。

So you saw in Florida tort reform really helped on the -- what I'll just call opportunistic, somebody gets an offender vendor accident, they just decide wrongly to sue somebody, so I can get some money from because of the way litigation. So Georgia just passed some tort reform.

所以你看到佛羅裡達州的侵權行為改革確實有所幫助 - 我稱之為機會主義，有人遇到了罪犯供應商事故，他們只是錯誤地決定起訴某人，所以我可以通過訴訟方式獲得一些錢。喬治亞州剛剛通過了一些侵權法改革。

So we're hopeful that, that will work. And obviously, as Greg asked this, we're still taking costs down. So we're not sticking where we are. And all of that fixed into the mix, where we are. And if we need to raise prices, we will raise prices just like we did in the pandemic because with our margins, we don't have a lot of room to absorb, like we're selling software with 80% margins, and we're in a relatively thin margin business.

所以我們希望這會有效。顯然，正如格雷格所問，我們仍在降低成本。所以我們不會固守現狀。所有這些都融入我們現在所處的環境中。如果我們需要提高價格，我們就會像疫情期間那樣提高價格，因為以我們的利潤率，我們沒有太多的吸收空間，例如我們銷售的軟體利潤率為 80%，而我們的業務利潤相對較薄。

So we need to raise our prices. On the Protection Services businesses, some costs are likely to go up as well. But we factored that into the way we're pricing our product as we go forward and then it adjusts and it spreads over time. On the growth standpoint, I think it just is the level playing field. Like I think the advantages you have today are the advantages you're going to have tomorrow if car prices are x percent higher.

所以我們需要提高價格。對於保護服務業務而言，一些成本也可能會上漲。但我們在製定產品定價時已經考慮到了這一點，並且會隨著時間的推移進行調整和推廣。從成長的角度來看，我認為這只是一個公平的競爭環境。就像我認為如果汽車價格上漲 x%，你今天擁有的優勢就是你明天將擁有的優勢。

And so I don't really see much difference in the growth side on Property-Liability. On the Protection Services businesses, to the extent that there's consumer demand goes down because inflation is up or people start buying fewer TVs or washers or something like that, that could impact our growth a little bit there. But we've got great international growth we're doing there. So I'm comfortable with our growth numbers in the tariff. From the investment standpoint, John talked about how balanced our portfolio is, how proactive we are.

因此，我實際上沒有看到財產責任方面的成長方面有太大差異。對於保護服務業務而言，如果由於通貨膨脹上升或人們開始減少購買電視或洗衣機等產品而導致消費者需求下降，這可能會對我們的成長產生一定影響。但我們在國際上取得了巨大的成長。所以我對我們的關稅成長數字感到滿意。從投資的角度來說，約翰談到了我們的投資組合是多麼的平衡，以及我們是多麼的積極主動。

So we factor all of this into the mix side. From an enterprise standpoint, tariffs are manageable for us. They will be manageable for our customers, and we'll just do whatever we need to do to make sure we serve both our customers well and keep making money for shareholders.

因此我們將所有這些都納入混合方面。從企業角度來看，關稅對我們來說是可控的。這些對我們的客戶來說是可控的，我們將盡一切努力確保我們既能為客戶提供良好的服務，又能繼續為股東創造利潤。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Alex Scott, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的亞歷克斯·斯科特。

Hey, good morning. First one I had is just on retention to see if you could dig a little more into what you're seeing and also the S.A.V.E. program. And I guess, specifically, I guess we don't have the exact numbers necessarily, but we can kind of calculate proxies and so forth. I mean it looks like it's still about as bad as it's got in terms of retention. How much of that is associated with packaged business, maybe still some shut-in of business versus more competition in the auto market in certain states versus running through price in certain states.

嘿，早安。我首先要考慮的是保留率，看看你是否可以更深入地了解你所看到的內容以及 S.A.V.E。程式.我想，具體來說，我們不一定有確切的數字，但我們可以計算代理等等。我的意思是，從保留率來看，它看起來仍然很糟糕。這其中有多少與打包業務有關，可能仍然有一些業務關閉，或者某些州的汽車市場競爭更加激烈，或者某些州的汽車市場價格上漲。

Can you help me think about like how quickly you expect that to come back and what the S.A.V.E. initiative will do to help that?

你能幫我想想你預計它會多快恢復以及 S.A.V.E 是什麼嗎？這項舉措能起到什麼幫助作用？

Okay. We can talk about some of the specifics in various areas. But I mean, I know it might be frustrating to you that we don't give you the retention number for the Allstate brand for auto insurance. But we did that on purpose because we found that as we delve into the individual pieces, it gets a little confusing, and it's hard to tell the story. The story is, are we growing total bit?

好的。我們可以討論一下各領域的一些具體問題。但我的意思是，我知道我們沒有向您提供 Allstate 品牌汽車保險的保留號碼，這可能會讓您感到沮喪。但我們是故意這樣做的，因為我們發現，當我們深入研究各個部分時，它會變得有點混亂，而且很難講述這個故事。問題是，我們的整體成長了嗎？

That's the story. And some of that is new business, which we show you numbers on. Some of that is retention, which you write, you can back into the total number. The specific percentage though bounces around by risk, by the number of -- types of customers you're writing. So we've gotten much more aggressive in the non-standard market.

故事就是這樣。其中一些是新業務，我們會向您展示相關數字。其中一些是保留，您寫下來，就可以將其返回到總數中。不過，具體百分比會根據風險、您所寫的客戶類型的數量而波動。因此我們在非標準市場中變得更加積極。

So if you look at our -- internally, the way we look at that risk class, we are doing much better in that segment than we were a couple of years ago, which is where we think one of our big competitors has had a lot of growth. Now that comes with lower retention. So you're like, well, you feel good on new business, not so good on retention. So we decided to rather than take everybody through the third derivative, we would focus on are we growing total PIP. So rather than going into the specific numbers.

因此，如果你看一下我們的內部情況，看看我們看待該風險類別的方式，我們在這一領域的表現比幾年前好得多，我們認為我們的一個大競爭對手在這一領域取得了很大的增長。現在，保留率較低。所以你會覺得，嗯，你對新業務感覺良好，但對保留業務感覺不太好。因此，我們決定不讓每個人都經歷第三個導數，而是專注於我們是否在增加總 PIP。所以不要去討論具體的數字。

That said, it's a good question because retention is really important, and we're doing a lot of work on it.

話雖如此，這是一個好問題，因為保留確實很重要，而且我們正在為此做大量工作。

So Mario, do you want to talk about the various programs you have going on retention?

那麼馬裡奧，你想談談你正在進行的各種保留計劃嗎？

Yeah. So it is a good question because retention is obviously a core way that we're going to grow. And you're right, as I said earlier, it's -- it remains in the same zone relative to where it's been the last couple of quarters. Maybe the way I would think about it, Alex, is actually kind of flip it and rather than talk about retention. It's talking about defection, the customers that leave us because our actions are really focused on those customers.

是的。這是一個很好的問題，因為保留顯然是我們實現成長的核心方式。你說得對，正如我之前所說，它與過去幾個季度相比仍處於同一區域。亞歷克斯，也許我對此的看法實際上是反過來，而不是談論保留。這裡說的是流失，也就是客戶離開我們，因為我們的行動真的只針對這些客戶。

And so as you think about what we're doing, the things that cause customers to defect, there are certain triggers. It could be price increase, which, obviously, we and the industry have had to raise pretty significantly over the last couple of years. That -- those things trigger shopping. But also poor customer experience or a negative customer experience, those things matter as well. And with S.A.V.E., we're really going after those triggers.

因此，當您思考我們正在做的事情時，您會發現導致客戶流失的原因都是有某些觸發因素的。這可能是價格上漲，顯然，我們和整個產業在過去幾年不得不大幅提高價格。那——那些東西會引發購物。但糟糕的客戶體驗或負面的客戶體驗也很重要。透過 S.A.V.E.，我們確實在追尋這些觸發因素。

So we're looking to improve affordability by making sure, again, customers have the best possible coverage, the best possible price that's based on their personal circumstances to help alleviate that shopping trigger related to the price of insurance. But it's also focused on improving our customer interactions broadly to make sure that customers have the best possible and an industry-leading customer experience when they engage with Allstate, again, to reduce the number of defections. Along with that, bundling helps the stickiness of the relationship. And our agents on the Allstate side continue to bundle at historically high levels, around 80% for new business. That helps retention because it improves the depth of the relationship.

因此，我們希望透過確保客戶獲得最佳的保障和根據其個人情況確定的最佳價格來提高可負擔性，以幫助緩解與保險價格相關的購物誘因。但我們也致力於廣泛改善與客戶的互動，以確保客戶在與 Allstate 合作時獲得最佳且業界領先的客戶體驗，從而再次減少流失率。除此之外，捆綁還有助於增強關係的黏性。我們在 Allstate 方面的代理商繼續以歷史最高水準捆綁，新業務的捆綁比例約為 80%。這有助於留住客戶，因為它增強了關係的深度。

And then finally, the fact that we've had to be less active from a rate perspective, creates more stability in the book, which also will help in terms of reducing defections. But we're focused principally proactively on those first couple, which is improving the customer experience, improving affordability, continuing to drive bundling at the point of sale and through cross-sell where we can to help improve the retention trends going forward.

最後，從利率角度來看，我們不得不減少積極性，這為帳簿創造了更多的穩定性，這也有助於減少叛逃。但我們主要積極主動地關注前幾個方面，即改善客戶體驗、提高可負擔性、繼續推動銷售點捆綁銷售以及透過交叉銷售，以幫助改善未來的保留趨勢。

Got it. Okay. That's all really helpful. Next question I had is sort of a follow-up on some of the loss trend comments you made around tariffs. And I appreciate there's a ton of uncertainty right now and there's a wide range of outcomes.

知道了。好的。這些都非常有幫助。我的下一個問題是針對您就關稅問題所做的一些損失趨勢評論進行跟進。我知道現在有很多不確定性，而且結果也多種多樣。

But when I think about your financial position in terms of just like premium-to-equity leverage, which I know is very crude, not necessarily the way you look at it. But at a high level, you're sort of sitting at a much higher level than you were prior to the 2021 inflationary period. You're still buying back stock. I'm just trying to understand how do you think about your capital capacity to deal with the more adverse outcomes that you described? And are there sort of offsets or things I'm not thinking about that are more fine-tuned than just looking at that premium to equity now versus then?

但是當我從溢價與股權槓桿的角度來考慮你的財務狀況時，我知道這非常粗略，不一定是你所看到的。但從高水準來看，目前的水平比 2021 年通膨期之前的水平要高得多。您仍在回購股票。我只是想了解您如何看待自己的資本能力來應對您所描述的更不利的結果？是否存在一些我沒有考慮過的抵消措施或更精細的調整，而不僅僅是關注現在與當時的股權溢價？

So we're in a really strong capital position. Depending which equity you're looking at, if you're looking at statutory capital, you got to add back in what's at the holding company, which just at the end of the first quarter was about $3 billion. So there's a lot of capital there. We think we have plenty of money even if it means really high increases in average premiums because inflation ticks up. We have capital that is positioned so that we can -- we went into this with capital thinking we're going to grow market share.

因此我們的資本狀況非常強勁。根據您所關注的股權，如果您關注的是法定資本，那麼您必須加上控股公司的資本，截至第一季末，該資本約為 30 億美元。所以那裡有很多資本。我們認為我們有足夠的錢，即使這意味著由於通貨膨脹而導致平均保費大幅增加。我們擁有資本，因此我們可以——我們以資本進入這個領域，認為我們將擴大市場份額。

Like we plan on growing market share. So we've got capital to grow market share. And we have plenty of capital to do that. And if it means that average premium go up, we've got plenty of capital to do that. So we're feeling really good about where our capital position is.

就像我們計劃擴大市場份額一樣。因此我們有資本來擴大市場份額。我們有足夠的資金來實現這一點。如果這意味著平均保費上漲，我們有足夠的資金來實現這一點。因此，我們對我們的資本狀況感到非常滿意。

And we never really thought we had an issue that a couple of people did, but we're in great shape. And I do think that the premium to surplus ratio that you're measuring is too crude to measure, but that's not a good way to look at capital.

我們從未真正想過我們會遇到一些人遇到的問題，我們的狀況很好。我確實認為，你所衡量的溢價與盈餘比率太過粗略，但這並不是看待資本的好方法。

We don't drag you down into the middle of it because we've always had good capital and it gets very sophisticated, but we do have lots of scenarios we run. So we run what if we're in stagflation, what happens with stagflation and market share growth and how we're feeling about overall capital. And we're just in a really good place.

我們不會把你拖入其中，因為我們一直擁有良好的資本，而且它變得非常複雜，但我們確實有很多要運行的場景。因此，我們會考慮如果我們處於滯脹中，滯脹和市場份額增長會發生什麼，以及我們對整體資本的感受如何。我們目前處於一個非常好的位置。

The only thing I would add to what Tom said is you'll recall as we went through and talked about capital over the last few years, we have a -- the way that we construct our economic capital is we have a base capital layer, and then we put stress capital on top of that. So the stress is to absorb times like what we're talking about, right? So we have stress capital to absorb the volatility that comes with changing market conditions. And to the extent we have a repurchase program in place, that means that we've rebuilt that stress layer from the previous years because as we talk through capital in the last few years, we said there's sort of an order of operations, you have to get the target. And target means you've rebuilt a stress layer.

我唯一想補充的是，湯姆所說的話，你會記得，在過去幾年我們討論資本時，我們建立經濟資本的方式是，我們有一個基礎資本層，然後我們把壓力資本放在其上。所以壓力就是吸收我們正在談論的時間，對嗎？因此，我們有壓力資本來吸收市場條件變化所帶來的波動。就我們實施的回購計劃而言，這意味著我們已經重建了前幾年的壓力層，因為當我們在過去幾年討論資本時，我們說有一種操作順序，你必須達到目標。而目標意味著你已經重建了一個壓力層。

So as you think about going forward, we, as Tom said, are in a very strong capital position, and we've got capital in place to absorb uncertainty and changing market conditions.

因此，當你考慮未來時，正如湯姆所說，我們的資本狀況非常強勁，我們有足夠的資本來吸收不確定性和不斷變化的市場條件。

I think one of the things that didn't get as much focus as we came through the pandemic was that higher prices led to -- was based on higher loss costs. Higher loss costs led to higher reserves. Higher reserves leads to more investments and that leads more investment income, which keeps going on forever. So there is a growth aspect to investment income that comes out of this as well besides just making sure you have a good combined ratio.

我認為，在我們度過疫情期間，沒有引起太多關注的事情之一是價格上漲導致的——這是基於更高的損失成本。損失成本越高，儲備金也越高。更高的儲備會帶來更多的投資，從而帶來更多的投資收入，這種情況會持續下去。因此，除了確保擁有良好的綜合比率之外，投資收益還具有成長的面向。

Yeah, all good points. Thank you.

是的，所有觀點都很好。謝謝。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 Mike Zaremski。

Okay, great, thanks for fitting me in. My first question is a high-level question. So looking at consensus, I'm not saying this is necessarily correct, but expected to earn -- Allstate has a 23% ROE in the coming years. That's obviously well above Allstate's long-term average and your cost of equity. You spent significant time and effort building out additional sales channels in recent years. So I guess just why not write at a slightly worse combined ratio, trade-off some ROE for enable more sustainable organic growth since it seems growth has been all the focus on a go-forward basis?

好的，太好了，謝謝你幫我安排。我的第一個問題是一個高層次的問題。因此，從共識來看，我並不是說這一定是正確的，但預計未來幾年 Allstate 的 ROE 將達到 23%。這顯然遠高於 Allstate 的長期平均水平和您的股權成本。近年來，您投入了大量的時間和精力來擴展額外的銷售管道。因此，我想為什麼不以稍微差一點的綜合比率來寫，用一些 ROE 來實現更永續的有機成長，因為看起來成長一直是未來的重點？

Well, we think we can do both. When we look at our -- if you just go to auto insurance, if you look at our combined ratio relative to the industry, we've always been able to operate at, call it, 5 points better than the industry average and which means we've been able to extract economic rents and still be competitive in the marketplace. We haven't grown as fast as one of our competitors have. We'd like to grow that fast. And so we're working on that.

嗯，我們認為我們可以兩者兼顧。當我們看我們的——如果你只看汽車保險，如果你看我們相對於行業的綜合比率，我們的營運水平始終比行業平均水平高出 5 個百分點，這意味著我們能夠提取經濟租金，同時仍然在市場上具有競爭力。我們的成長速度不如我們的競爭對手快。我們希望能夠如此快速地成長。所以我們正在努力。

Their model shows that they have about the same level of combined ratio, and they can grow. So we're like, we should be able to do both. In homeowners, we have an industry-leading position, and we are growing. So we think we could do both. And I do think -- I think you're absolutely right.

他們的模型顯示，他們的綜合成本率水準大致相同，而且還可以成長。所以我們認為，我們應該要能夠同時做到這兩點。在房主領域，我們處於行業領先地位，並且正在不斷發展。所以我們認為我們可以同時做到這兩點。我確實認為——我認為你完全正確。

Growth is the unlock to the valuation multiples. If you look at our valuation multiples to anybody else in the industry, they're substantially below. We obviously don't like that because we think that we got great businesses, and it's all focused on auto insurance as opposed to how you're doing in the home insurance and our protection plans businesses and services businesses are killing it. But like the market will tell us when they're ready to pay more, but we're working on it.

成長是估值倍數的解鎖。如果你看一下我們與業界其他任何人的估值倍數，你會發現我們的估值倍數遠低於其他任何人。我們顯然不喜歡這樣，因為我們認為我們擁有出色的業務，但全部專注於汽車保險，而不是像我們在家庭保險和保護計劃業務和服務業務中所做的那樣。但當他們準備支付更多時，市場會告訴我們，但我們正在努力。

We'll do one more question.

我們再回答一個問題。

Joshua Shanker, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Joshua Shanker。

Well, thank you for fitting me in. I appreciate it. In terms of the cadence of advertising spend, I noticed you spent less money in the first quarter than you did in the fourth quarter. Historically, looking at when GEICO and Progressive added business, they were more first half year weighted policy addition businesses. I don't know if something has changed about the industry. But has the ad spend already peaked? And you talked in this back half of last year about ad spending for future growth.

嗯，謝謝你幫我安排。我很感激。就廣告支出的節奏而言，我注意到你們第一季的支出比第四季少。從歷史上看，GEICO 和 Progressive 增加業務時，它們的業務更多的是上半年加權保單增加業務。我不知道這個行業是否發生了一些變化。但廣告支出是否已經達到最高峰？去年下半年您談到了未來成長的廣告支出。

Can you talk about how that works and whether it's all playing out as the design sets up?

您能談談它的工作原理以及它是否按照設計的設定順利進行嗎？

It hasn't peaked in the first quarter for us. Everybody else will have to decide what they do. I can't speak to there. Josh, I could speculate, but it is just speculation that the direct business -- this I know, the direct business does write more new business in the first quarter than other quarters. And they're heavier in direct than we are.

對我們來說，第一季還沒有達到頂峰。其他人都必須決定他們該做什麼。我無法在那裡說話。喬希，我可以推測，但這只是推測，直接業務——我知道，直接業務在第一季確實比其他季度產生了更多的新業務。而且他們的直接重量比我們重。

Certainly, GEICO is all direct other than a small little piece of their agency business to kind of build out and Progressive is a good half direct. And we're not quite there. So I would guess as their advertising by quarter lines up with where their opportunities are by distribution channel by quarter, but that's me outside looking in. As it relates to us, as long as we're getting a good combined ratio and we're writing new business and our economics on advertising, which are very granular these days, not quite as granular as $1 billion price points and in a state in auto insurance, but pretty darn close. As long as we're driving positive ROE on that advertising stuff, we'll keep doing it.

當然，除了一小部分代理業務需要拓展之外，GEICO 的所有業務都是直接經營的，而 Progressive 則有一半是直接經營的。但我們還沒有到達那裡。因此我猜測他們按季度投放的廣告與他們按季度透過分銷管道獲得的機會是一致的，但這只是我的一個旁觀者。就我們而言，只要我們獲得良好的綜合比率，並且我們正在創造新的業務，並且我們的廣告經濟效益現在非常精細，雖然不像汽車保險中 10 億美元的價格點和狀態那麼精細，但也非常接近了。只要我們能透過廣告業務獲得正的 ROE，我們就會繼續這樣做。

And it's not all just average like we do look at the incremental advertising spend as well to make sure we're getting good returns. So our goal is increase market share and sell more protection to people. So there's other places we can grow besides auto insurance, too. I think we should be growing faster in renters and some other stuff. It's not going to make a huge deal in terms of absolute revenues.

而且我們不會只關注平均值，我們也會關注增量廣告支出，以確保獲得良好的回報。因此我們的目標是增加市場份額並向人們提供更多的保護。因此，除了汽車保險之外，我們還可以在其他地方成長。我認為我們在租屋者和其他方面應該會成長得更快。從絕對收入來看，這不會帶來太大的影響。

But one of the things we're also focused on is we've crossed a couple of hundred million in policies in force and that substantial presence in America. And so we're focused on not just every other auto policy, but everything else we sell as well.

但我們關注的重點之一是，我們已實施的保單金額已超過數億美元，並且在美國佔有相當大的份額。因此，我們不僅關注所有其他汽車保險，還關注我們銷售的所有其他產品。

Thank you all for tuning in. We do have the capabilities, the brand, the distribution, the resources to help us accomplish that strategy, which is grow market share in Property-Liability and expand the protection we offer to everybody else. So thank you for your ongoing engagement.

感謝大家的收看。我們確實擁有能力、品牌、分銷和資源來幫助我們實現這一策略，即增加財產責任保險的市場份額並擴大我們為其他所有人提供的保護。感謝您一直以來的參與。

We'll talk to you next quarter.

我們將在下個季度與您交談。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位參加今天的會議。該計劃確實就此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。