Allstate Corp (ALL) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to The Allstate First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) And please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家，早安。感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加 Allstate 2022 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Mark Nogal.

現在我想將會議交給今天的演講者馬克·諾加爾先生。

Thank you, Kirby. Good morning, and welcome to Allstate's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. After prepared remarks, we'll have a question-and-answer session. Yesterday, following the close of the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement, filed our 10-Q and posted today's presentation, along with our reinsurance update, on our website at allstateinvestors.com. Our management team is here to provide perspective on these results.

謝謝你，柯比。早上好，歡迎參加 Allstate 2022 年第一季財報電話會議。準備好發言後，我們將進行問答環節。昨天，收盤後，我們在我們的網站 allstateinvestors.com 上發布了新聞稿和投資者補充資料，提交了 10-Q 報告，並發布了今天的簡報以及我們的再保險更新。我們的管理團隊在此提供這些結果的看法。

As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will contain non-GAAP measures, for which there are reconciliations in the news release and investor supplement and forward-looking statements about Allstate operations. Allstate's results could differ materially from these statements, so please refer to our 10-K for 2021 and other public documents for information on potential risks.

正如簡報第一張投影片中所指出的，我們的討論將包含非公認會計原則措施，對此，新聞稿和投資者補充以及有關好事達業務的前瞻性聲明中都有調節。 Allstate 的結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，因此請參閱我們的 2021 年 10-K 和其他公開文件，以了解有關潛在風險的資訊。

Before I hand it off to Tom, I want to share that we will be hosting our second Special Topic Investor Call on June 16, focusing on the value of homeowners. We look forward to the additional engagement later this quarter, and we'll share further information soon. And now I'll turn it over to Tom.

在交給 Tom 之前，我想告訴大家，我們將於 6 月 16 日舉辦第二次專題投資者電話會議，並專注於房主的價值。我們期待本季度晚些時候的更多參與，我們將很快分享更多資訊。現在我將把它交給湯姆。

Well, good morning, and thank you for investing your time in Allstate today. Now let's start on Slide 2.

嗯，早安，感謝您今天花時間關注好事達。現在讓我們從投影片 2 開始。

So Allstate's strategy to deliver Transformative Growth and higher valuation has 2 components: increase personal property-liability market share and expand protection services, which are shown in the 2 ovals on the left. We're building a low-cost digital insurer with broad distribution to a Transformative Growth. We're also diversifying our business by expanding protection offerings, as shown in the bottom oval.

因此，好事達實現轉型成長和更高估值的策略有兩個組成部分：增加個人財產負債市場份額和擴大保障服務，如左側的兩個橢圓所示。我們正在建立一家低成本數位保險公司，透過廣泛的分銷來實現轉型成長。我們也透過擴大保護產品來實現業務多元化，如底部橢圓形所示。

In the first quarter, we made progress in 3 key areas to execute this strategy. We're 6 months into a multifaceted plan to address the negative impact of inflation, which is largely in auto insurance. This begins with aggressively raising prices. We're doing this surgically and raising prices more for new or shorter-tenured customers with less profitability and less for longer-tenured profitable customers.

第一季度，我們在執行這項策略的三個關鍵領域取得了進展。我們已經制定了 6 個月的多方面計劃，以解決通貨膨脹的負面影響，其中主要涉及汽車保險。首先是大幅提高價格。我們正在採取外科手術式的做法，對盈利能力較低的新客戶或短期客戶提高價格，對長期盈利客戶提高價格。

Progress was also made in executing programs to reduce expenses and manage loss costs. We also shifted our asset allocations by reducing the interest rate exposure of our bond portfolio in the fourth quarter of last year, which lowered the overall enterprise impact from higher inflation by $800 million.

在執行減少開支和管理損失成本的計劃方面也取得了進展。去年第四季度，我們也透過減少債券投資組合的利率風險來調整資產配置，從而將通膨上升對企業的整體影響降低了 8 億美元。

Secondly, we continue to make progress on Transformative Growth by expanding customer access, increasing pricing sophistication and building new technology ecosystems. Protection Services also continues its profitable growth trajectory with revenue growth of almost 14% above the prior year.

其次，我們透過擴大客戶覆蓋範圍、提高定價複雜度和建立新技術生態系統，持續在轉型成長方面取得進展。 Protection Services 也持續維持其獲利成長軌跡，營收比上年成長近 14%。

Moving to Slide 3, let's discuss first quarter performance in more detail. Property-liability premiums earned increased 6.1% due to higher average premiums and a 2.1% growth in policies in force. Net investment income of $594 million was 16.1% below the prior year quarter, reflecting lower fixed income reinvestment rates, the impact of reducing the bond portfolio duration and strong performance-based portfolio income, but that was in comparison to an exceptional prior year quarter.

轉到投影片 3，讓我們更詳細地討論第一季的業績。由於平均保費上漲以及有效保單增加 2.1%，所賺取的財產責任保費增加了 6.1%。淨投資收入為5.94 億美元，比去年同期下降16.1%，反映出固定收益再投資率較低、債券投資組合久期縮短的影響以及基於業績的投資組合收入強勁，但與去年同期的出色表現相比。

Net income of $630 million in the first quarter compares to a $1.4 billion loss in the prior year, which included losses related to the disposition of the life and annuity businesses. Adjusted net income of $726 million or $2.58 per diluted share declined compared to the nearly $1.9 billion generated in the prior year quarter due to lower underwriting income.

第一季淨利潤為 6.3 億美元，而去年同期虧損為 14 億美元，其中包括與人壽和年金業務處置相關的虧損。由於承銷收入下降，調整後淨利潤為 7.26 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 2.58 美元，較去年同期的近 19 億美元有所下降。

You'll remember, last year's first quarter reflected low auto accident frequency because of the pandemic, and inflation and loss costs had not yet been realized. We provided over $1 billion in cash returns to shareholders in the quarter and reduced outstanding shares by 8.1% over the last 12 months.

大家記得，去年第一季，受疫情影響，車禍發生率較低，而通膨和損失成本尚未實現。我們在本季向股東提供了超過 10 億美元的現金回報，並在過去 12 個月內減少了 8.1% 的流通股。

Moving to Slide 4. You can see how income from homeowners insurance, investments, Protection Services and Health and Benefits mitigated the negative impact that inflation had on auto insurance. Insurance underwriting margins provided $267 million of after-tax adjusted net income or $0.95 a share. Auto insurance generated a slight underwriting loss with a recorded combined ratio of 102.

前往投影片 4。您可以看到房屋保險、投資、保障服務以及健康和福利的收入如何減輕通貨膨脹對汽車保險的負面影響。保險承保利潤帶來了 2.67 億美元的稅後調整後淨利潤，即每股 0.95 美元。汽車保險產生輕微承保損失，綜合成本率為 102。

Our industry-leading homeowners insurance business generated underwriting income that contributed $335 million of adjusted net income or $1.19 per share. And although performance-based investment income declined from record highs in 2021, results were still strong in the first quarter, with property-liability net investment income contributing $1.56 per share. Protection Services and Health and Benefits income more than offset the losses in auto insurance.

我們行業領先的房屋保險業務產生的承保收入貢獻了 3.35 億美元的調整後淨利潤，即每股 1.19 美元。儘管基於業績的投資收益較 2021 年的歷史高點有所下降，但第一季的業績仍然強勁，財產負債淨投資收益貢獻每股 1.56 美元。保障服務以及健康和福利收入足以抵銷汽車保險的損失。

Now let me turn it over to Glenn to discuss the property liability results in more detail.

現在讓我把它交給格倫，更詳細地討論財產責任結果。

Thanks, Tom. Starting on Page 5, we'll talk about profitability in Allstate brand auto insurance. We targeted mid-90s combined ratio in auto insurance. And as you could see from the chart on the left, we have a long history of meeting or exceeding that target, supported by our pricing sophistication, underwriting, claims expertise, expense management. And of course, when you look at 2020 in that chart, it's an outlier in terms of the view because we had much better than target results due to the early pandemic impacts.

謝謝，湯姆。從第 5 頁開始，我們將討論 Allstate 品牌汽車保險的獲利能力。我們的目標是汽車保險領域的綜合成本率達到 90 年代中期。正如您從左圖中看到的那樣，在我們的定價複雜性、承保、理賠專業知識和費用管理的支持下，我們長期以來一直在達到或超過該目標。當然，當您查看該圖表中的 2020 年時，您會發現這是一個異常值，因為由於早期大流行的影響，我們的結果比目標要好得多。

And the chart on the right breaks down the 5 most recent quarters, highlighting the significant increase in combined ratio that occurred in 2021, as we transitioned from those favorable pandemic impacts to the high inflation environment that we're in today.

右側的圖表細分了最近 5 個季度，突顯了 2021 年綜合成本率的顯著增長，因為我們從有利的流行病影響過渡到了今天所處的高通膨環境。

In late 2020 and early 2021, as Tom just mentioned, while we were running a combined ratio around 80 and benefiting from frequency and the improved cost structure changes we've made, we took price decreases. And then as inflation spiked in Q2 and Q3 of last year, we shifted towards rate increases, which ramped up significantly in the last 6 months.

在 2020 年底和 2021 年初，正如 Tom 剛才提到的，雖然我們的綜合成本率約為 80，並受益於我們所做的頻率和改進的成本結構變化，但我們還是採取了價格下降的措施。然後，隨著去年第二季和第三季通膨飆升，我們轉向升息，升息在過去 6 個月大幅上升。

The recorded and underlying combined ratios improved sequentially in the first quarter of '22, though inflationary trends continue to pressure margins with increasing severity. And frequency is obviously higher year-over-year from that low point, but it's been very stable in terms of maintaining lower-level frequency compared to pre-pandemic levels. We'll go deeper into severity and pricing for auto insurance in the next few pages.

儘管通膨趨勢繼續對利潤率造成越來越嚴重的壓力，但記錄和基礎綜合比率在 2022 年第一季連續改善。從這個低點開始，頻率明顯逐年升高，但與疫情前的水平相比，在保持較低水平的頻率方面非常穩定。我們將在接下來的幾頁中深入探討汽車保險的嚴重程度和定價。

So let's move to Slide 6 and talk about Allstate auto physical damage claim severity in more detail. The story of higher severity has continued into 2022, and it's across the country, as you can see from the map on the left. Allstate brand report year 2022 incurred severity for property damage increased about 11% compared to report year '21. Now recall that we shifted to report year incurred severity to give you a better view directly into what's recorded in our financials.

那麼，讓我們轉到幻燈片 6，更詳細地討論 Allstate 汽車物理損壞索賠的嚴重程度。正如您從左側地圖中看到的那樣，更嚴重的情況一直持續到 2022 年，並且遍及全國。好事達品牌 2022 年報告中財產損失的嚴重程度與 21 年報告相比增加了約 11%。現在回想一下，我們轉向了報告年度發生的嚴重程度，以便讓您更好地直接了解我們的財務記錄。

And it's really important to note on this that when you look at paid severities, it's typically shared as a comparison to the prior year quarter or year-to-date or some prior period, whereas our new disclosure is an estimate of the full change in the fully developed report year severities year-over-year. So the 11% in this case is the expected severity in '22 over all of 2021, inclusive of the inflation seen in quarters 2 through 4.

值得注意的是，當您查看付費嚴重程度時，通常會將其與上一年季度或年初至今或之前某個時期進行比較，而我們的新披露是對付費嚴重程度的全面變化的估計。全面制定的報告年度嚴重程度逐年上升。因此，本例中的 11% 是 2021 年全年的預期嚴重程度，包括第二季至第四季的通膨。

On the chart on the right, you can see that Allstate has a higher distribution of total loss claims involving newer vehicles compared to the industry. And while those vehicles come with higher premiums, they also can adversely impact total loss severity when vehicle values rise. We're adjusting pricing and using our strong claim capabilities to mitigate rising costs, and that includes leveraging our scale, our operating processes, experienced claim professionals, technology, broad repair relationships that we have and our investments in data and analytics to help contain costs for customers.

在右圖上，您可以看到與行業相比，好事達在涉及新車的總損失索賠中的分佈較高。雖然這些車輛的保費較高，但當車輛價值上漲時，它們也會對總損失嚴重程度產生不利影響。我們正在調整定價並利用我們強大的索賠能力來降低不斷上升的成本，其中包括利用我們的規模、營運流程、經驗豐富的索賠專業人員、技術、我們擁有的廣泛維修關係以及我們在數據和分析方面的投資來幫助控製成本為客戶。

Moving to Slide 7. Let's talk about bodily injury severity increases because they've also contributed to auto insurance cost and price increases. Like property damage, casualty loss trends have been elevated for the past few years and continued into '22. But the bodily injury pressure isn't quite as widespread. Allstate brand report year '22 incurred severity for bodily injury increased about 8% compared to report year '21. Higher-speed accidents and less congested roads are leading to harder impact crashes and more severe injuries. And an evolving legal environment is also a factor in casualty costs.

轉向幻燈片 7。我們來談談身體傷害嚴重程度的增加，因為它們也導致了汽車保險成本和價格的上漲。與財產損失一樣，傷亡損失趨勢在過去幾年中一直在上升，並持續到 22 世紀。但身體受傷的壓力卻不那麼普遍。 Allstate 品牌報告年度 '22 發生的身體傷害嚴重程度與報告年度 '21 相比增加了約 8%。更高的速度事故和不太擁擠的道路會導致更嚴重的碰撞事故和更嚴重的傷害。不斷變化的法律環境也是傷亡成本的因素。

If you look at the chart on the left, you'll see that claims resulting in a nondrivable vehicle, which would mean kind of a harder hit, and claims resulting in bodily injury claims with a major injury designation have increased compared to pre-pandemic levels. That's driving a shift to more complex and costly treatments and contributing to higher medical consumption.

如果您查看左側的圖表，您會發現導致車輛無法駕駛的索賠（這意味著受到更嚴重的打擊）以及導致重大傷害的人身傷害索賠與大流行前相比有所增加水平。這正在推動向更複雜、更昂貴的治療方法的轉變，並導致更高的醫療消費。

In terms of the legal environment, trial attorney advertising for claimants has doubled over the past decade and exceeds $1 billion annually now. That results in higher attorney representation rates, and ultimately, higher costs for consumers.

在法律環境方面，在過去十年中，為原告做廣告的審判律師數量增加了一倍，現在每年超過 10 億美元。這會導致更高的律師代理率，並最終導致消費者的成本更高。

The chart on the right shows the severity variance to prior years, trending higher in some of our more populous states like Texas, Florida, Georgia, New York and California. And Texas actually accounted for about 80% of the prior report year strengthening within bodily injury in the first quarter. Here again, our scale, our investments in technology and in data and analytics and our claim expertise are helping us resolve claims fairly, accurately and efficiently.

右圖顯示了與前幾年的嚴重程度差異，在德克薩斯州、佛羅裡達州、喬治亞州、紐約州和加利福尼亞州等人口較多的州，嚴重程度呈上升趨勢。德州實際上佔上一報告年第一季人身傷害加強的約 80%。我們的規模、我們在技術、數據和分析方面的投資以及我們的索賠專業知識正在幫助我們公平、準確和高效地解決索賠。

Moving to Slide 8. Let's talk about another key component to our multifaceted plan to deal with inflation, and that's raising auto insurance prices. The table on the left provides a view into 2021 and the first quarter of '22 rate actions in Allstate brand auto. We implemented rate decreases, as we talked about earlier, in early '21 to reflect our continued lower frequency and expense reductions.

轉向幻燈片 8。讓我們談談我們應對通貨膨脹的多方面計劃的另一個關鍵組成部分，那就是提高汽車保險價格。左表展示了 2021 年和 22 年第一季 Allstate 品牌汽車的利率行動。正如我們之前提到的，我們在 21 年初實施了費率下調，以反映我們持續降低的頻率和費用削減。

In the second quarter, as inflation picked up, we pulled back on any reductions and began increasing rates by the third quarter. And then those rate actions accelerated in the fourth quarter and then further accelerated in the first quarter this year. In the first quarter of '22, we implemented rate in 28 states with an average increase of 9.3% and a weighted Allstate brand auto premium impact of 3.6%.

第二季度，隨著通膨上升，我們取消了任何削減措施，並在第三季開始升息。然後這些利率行動在第四季加速，然後在今年第一季進一步加速。 2022 年第一季度，我們在 28 個州實施了費率，平均增幅為 9.3%，加權 Allstate 品牌汽車保費影響為 3.6%。

When you combine that with the fourth quarter actions, we've increased weighted rates by 6.5% over the last 6 months, and that equates to a gross annualized written premium impact of $1.6 billion within the Allstate brand. About 95% of our premiums in the U.S. are coming from 6-month term policies.

如果將其與第四季度的行動結合起來，我們在過去 6 個月內將加權費率提高了 6.5%，這相當於 Allstate 品牌的年化保費總額達到 16 億美元。我們在美國約 95% 的保費來自 6 個月定期保單。

So the rates will improve margins, but there's a lag between when the rates are implemented and they're ultimately earned, which you can see in the chart on the right, which estimates when the rate increases taken in the last 6 months will be earned into premium. That illustration assumes only 85% of the annualized premium will be earned to account for things like retention and the fact that customers modify their policy terms when faced with a price increase, like changing deductibles or limits.

因此，利率將提高利潤率，但利率實施和最終賺取之間存在一個滯後，您可以在右側的圖表中看到這一點，該圖表估計了過去6 個月內利率上漲的時間將被賺取轉化為溢價。此圖假設僅賺取年化保費的 85%，以考慮保留率以及客戶在面臨價格上漲時修改保單條款（例如更改免賠額或限額）等因素。

As you can see, looking at Q1 2022, the rate increases we've taken didn't have a whole lot of impact yet, but you can see it coming in the coming quarters, and it really accelerates. We expect to see significant increases in earned premium beginning in the second half of '22, reaching over $1.1 billion by the first quarter of next year based on the implemented rate so far. And keep in mind that additional rates and increases that we take through this year will be additive and compound on those rate increases.

正如您所看到的，從 2022 年第一季來看，我們採取的升息措施尚未產生很大影響，但您可以看到它會在未來幾個季度出現，而且確實會加速。我們預計，從 2022 年下半年開始，已賺取保費將顯著增加，根據迄今為止實施的費率，到明年第一季將達到 11 億美元以上。請記住，我們今年採取的額外利率和升息將是這些升息的累加和複合。

And given the ongoing inflationary pressure, we have increased the magnitude of rate increases we expect to take in the rest of 2022. We remain very confident in our ability to restore auto profitability to targeted levels, and we'll keep you posted on that in our new monthly disclosures of rate filings.

考慮到持續的通膨壓力，我們提高了預計在2022 年剩餘時間內升息的幅度。我們對將汽車盈利能力恢復到目標水平的能力仍然非常有信心，我們將在2022 年向您通報這一情況。我們新的每月費率申報披露。

So let's move to Slide 9 and take a look at something that I think is an undervalued strength at Allstate, and it's our industry-leading homeowners business. As you know, a significant portion of our customers bundle home and auto, and that improves the retention and overall economics of both lines of business. We've differentiated our homeowners product and our homeowners capability really. And that goes to our product, our underwriting, our reinsurance, our claims ecosystem. It is a unique entire business model and system in the industry.

因此，讓我們轉到幻燈片 9，看看我認為 Allstate 被低估的優勢，它是我們領先業界的房主業務。如您所知，我們很大一部分客戶將家庭和汽車捆綁在一起，這提高了這兩個業務線的保留率和整體經濟效益。我們的房主產品和房主能力確實與眾不同。這涉及到我們的產品、我們的承保、我們的再保險、我們的索賠生態系統。是業界獨一無二的整個商業模式和體系。

The graph on the left shows the history of Allstate brand combined ratio in homeowners versus the industry and competitors. And we believe that in order to achieve an adequate return on the capital that's required in this particular line of business, you have to achieve a recorded combined ratio over time at a target of 90% or better. And as you can see from the Allstate dots on that chart, we have a long history of doing exactly that. You can also see that some of our large competitors and the industry as a whole consistently generate combined ratios that don't meet what we find as a definition of needed for a return on capital.

左圖顯示了 Allstate 品牌房主綜合比率與行業和競爭對手的歷史對比。我們相信，為了實現這一特定業務領域所需的足夠資本回報，您必須隨著時間的推移實現 90% 或更高的目標記錄綜合比率。正如您從該圖表上的 Allstate 點中看到的那樣，我們在這方面有著悠久的歷史。您還可以看到，我們的一些大型競爭對手和整個行業始終產生不符合我們所認為的資本回報率所需定義的綜合比率。

We've repositioned the homeowners business over a multiyear period by reducing exposure to unprofitable geographies, designing new products, creating highly sophisticated pricing plans, improving home inspection and risk selection process and sourcing capital through multiyear reinsurance programs. As a result of all of that, we've consistently generated excellent underwriting results.

我們在多年的時間裡重新定位了房主業務，減少了對無利可圖地區的風險，設計新產品，制定高度複雜的定價計劃，改進房屋檢查和風險選擇流程，並透過多年再保險計劃籌集資金。因此，我們始終取得了出色的核保績效。

Since 2017, we've earned $3.3 billion or about $667 million annually in underwriting income, with the industry generating an underwriting loss over that same period. Homeowners Insurance and Allstate's homeowners insurance are certainly not immune to the rising inflationary environment right now, though. And we see that in the form of higher labor costs and higher material costs. But our products have the sophisticated pricing features needed to respond to those changes in replacement values and help offset the impact.

自 2017 年以來，我們每年獲得 33 億美元（約 6.67 億美元）的承保收入，而同期該行業卻產生了承保損失。不過，房屋保險和好事達的房屋保險當然也無法免受目前不斷上升的通膨環境的影響。我們看到，勞動成本和材料成本更高。但我們的產品具有複雜的定價功能，可以應對重置價值的變化並幫助抵消影響。

The chart on the right shows key Allstate brand homeowners insurance operating statistics. And there, you'll see that our net written premium has grown sharply through 2021 and into 2022, increasing 17% from the prior year. We grew policies in force by 1.7% in the first quarter. And our Allstate agents continue to be in a really good spot to broaden customer relationships with homeowners. And our average premiums rose 14.3%, mostly driven by increasing property values, as I mentioned earlier.

右圖顯示了 Allstate 品牌房屋保險的主要營運統計數據。在那裡，您會看到我們的淨承保保費在 2021 年和 2022 年期間大幅增長，比前一年增長了 17%。第一季我們的有效政策成長了 1.7%。我們的 Allstate 代理商在擴大與房主的客戶關係方面仍然處於非常有利的位置。正如我之前提到的，我們的平均保費上漲了 14.3%，主要是因為房產價值上漲。

The first quarter combined ratio of 83.3% generated $368 million of underwriting income for the Allstate brand. In short, our property insurance business is a competitive advantage, and we aim to continue to leverage that advantage and grow it. And we look forward to sharing additional insights on homeowners with you during our upcoming Special Topic Call on June 16.

第一季綜合成本率為 83.3%，為 Allstate 品牌帶來了 3.68 億美元的承保收入。簡而言之，我們的財產保險業務是一個競爭優勢，我們的目標是繼續利用這一優勢並將其發展壯大。我們期待在 6 月 16 日即將舉行的專題電話會議上與您分享更多關於房主的見解。

And with that, I will turn it over to Mario.

有了這個，我會把它交給馬裡奧。

Thanks, Glenn. Let's move to Slide 10 where we'll discuss how we're improving customer value through cost reductions. The chart on the slide shows the adjusted expense ratio, which is a metric we introduced a couple of quarters ago. This starts with our underwriting expense ratio, excluding restructuring, coronavirus-related expenses, amortization and impairment of purchased intangibles and investments in advertising.

謝謝，格倫。讓我們轉到投影片 10，我們將討論如何透過降低成本來提高客戶價值。投影片上的圖表顯示了調整後的費用比率，這是我們幾季前推出的指標。首先是我們的承保費用率，不包括重組、與冠狀病毒相關的費用、購買無形資產的攤銷和減值以及廣告投資。

It then adds in our claims expense ratio, excluding costs associated with settling catastrophe claims because catastrophe-related costs tend to bounce around quarter-to-quarter. We believe this measure provides the best insight into the underlying expense trends within our property-liability business.

然後，它增加了我們的索賠費用率，不包括與解決巨災索賠相關的成本，因為與巨災相關的成本往往會按季度反彈。我們相信，這項指標可以最好地洞察我們的財產責任業務中的潛在費用趨勢。

Through innovation and strong execution, we've achieved more than 3 points of improvement since 2018. Over time, we expect to drive an additional 2 points of improvement from current levels, achieving an adjusted expense ratio of approximately 23 by year-end 2024. This represents approximately a 6-point reduction compared to 2018, enabling an improved competitive position relative to our competitors while maintaining attractive returns.

透過創新和強有力的執行，我們自2018 年以來已經實現了超過3 個百分點的改進。隨著時間的推移，我們預計將在當前水準上再實現2 個百分點的改進，到2024 年底實現調整後費用比率約為23。與 2018 年相比，這大約減少了 6 個百分點，從而提高了相對於競爭對手的競爭地位，同時保持了有吸引力的回報。

While the adjusted expense ratio increased compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to higher employee-related costs, we remain committed to our 3-year reduction goals.

雖然調整後的費用率與去年同期相比有所增加，主要是因為員工相關成本增加，但我們仍致力於實現 3 年削減目標。

Not included in this measure, but in the reported expense ratio was an increase in advertising expenses versus the prior year quarter as we took advantage of a drop in advertising costs and a seasonal increase in direct shopping to shift spending earlier in the year. Advertising will fluctuate throughout the year as we implement auto price increases and could impact near-term growth. Our future cost reduction efforts are focused on digitization, sourcing and operating efficiency and distribution-related costs.

不包括在這項措施中，但在報告的費用比率中，廣告費用與去年同期相比有所增加，因為我們利用廣告費用下降和直接購物的季節性增加在今年早些時候轉移了支出。隨著我們實施汽車價格上漲，廣告將全年波動，並可能影響近期成長。我們未來的成本削減工作重點是數位化、採購和營運效率以及分銷相關成本。

Slide 11 diagrams Transformative Growth will increase market share. This multiyear initiative is designed to increase personal property-liability market share by building a low-cost digital insurer with broad distribution. This will be accomplished by delivering on 5 key objectives: improving customer value, expanding customer access, increasing sophistication and investment in customer acquisition, deploying new technology ecosystems and enhancing organizational capabilities.

投影片 11 圖表變革性成長將增加市場佔有率。這項為期多年的計劃旨在透過建立一家具有廣泛分銷能力的低成本數位保險公司來增加個人財產責任市場份額。這將透過實現 5 個關鍵目標來實現：提高客戶價值、擴大客戶存取範圍、提高客戶獲取的複雜性和投資、部署新技術生態系統以及增強組織能力。

We made significant progress across each objective in 2021 and are continuing the momentum in 2022. While the current auto operating environment required rapid price increases, we are confident this plan will generate long-term growth.

2021 年，我們在每個目標上都取得了重大進展，並將在 2022 年繼續保持這一勢頭。雖然當前的汽車營運環境需要價格快速上漲，但我們相信該計劃將帶來長期成長。

Starting at the top of the flywheel, we have reduced expenses to improve customer value with more competitive prices while earning targeted returns. We are building simple, affordable and connected protection solutions that are competitively differentiated. We have enhanced and expanded distribution, including modifying the Allstate agent model to increase growth and decrease distribution costs. We also improved the strength of our direct channel capabilities by leveraging the Allstate brand and significantly expanded in the independent agent channel through National General.

從飛輪頂部開始，我們減少了開支，以更具競爭力的價格提高客戶價值，同時獲得目標回報。我們正在建立簡單、經濟實惠且具有差異化競爭優勢的互聯保護解決方案。我們加強並擴大了分銷，包括修改好事達代理商模式以促進成長並降低分銷成本。我們也利用 Allstate 品牌提升了直接通路能力，並透過 National General 大幅拓展了獨立代理商管道。

Differentiated products and expanded distribution are supported by increased marketing sophistication and investment. New technology ecosystems lower cost, support protection offerings and improve service and speed to market. This comprehensive approach is like a flywheel that creates sustainable competitive advantage, leading to market share growth.

行銷複雜性和投資的提高支持差異化產品和擴大分銷。新技術生態系統可降低成本、支援保護產品並改善服務和上市速度。這種綜合方法就像一個飛輪，可以創造可持續的競爭優勢，從而導致市場份額的成長。

At the bottom of the page, you can see the 5 phases of Transformative Growth. We continue to make meaningful progress as we execute on building the new model in Phase 3 and begin to scale the new model in Phase 4.

在頁面底部，您可以看到轉型成長的 5 個階段。在第三階段建立新模型並在第四階段開始擴展新模型時，我們繼續取得有意義的進展。

Moving to Slide 12. You can see how expanding customer access better meets customer demand. Starting on the bar on the lower left. You can see the auto insurance industry written premium distribution by channel in 2020 was roughly 1/3 exclusive agency, 1/3 direct and 1/3 independent agency. Allstate's pre-Transformative Growth distribution for auto new business as of year-end 2019 is shown in the middle bar, and Allstate's first quarter 2022 distribution is shown on the right.

轉到投影片 12。您可以看到擴大客戶存取範圍如何更好地滿足客戶需求。從左下角的欄開始。可以看到，2020年車險產業保費依通路分佈大致為1/3專營、1/3直營、1/3獨立代理。中間欄顯示了好事達截至 2019 年底的汽車新業務轉型前增長分佈，右側顯示了好事達 2022 年第一季的分佈。

As you can see, today, the distribution of new business more closely mirrors the industry due to Transformative Growth and the acquisition of National General. The National General acquisition significantly increased our presence in the independent agent channel and offers future growth potential by expanding middle-market product offerings. Direct sales capabilities were improved and expanded from the Esurance base, including the use of the Allstate brand with lower pricing in this channel.

正如您所看到的，由於轉型成長和收購 National General，如今新業務的分佈更加貼近行業。收購 National General 顯著提高了我們在獨立代理通路中的影響力，並透過擴大中間市場產品供應提供了未來的成長潛力。以 Esurance 為基礎，提高和擴展了直銷能力，包括在該通路中使用價格較低的 Allstate 品牌。

Allstate agents are and will continue to be the competitive strength as an incentive shift to growth and costs are reduced. Today, the source of new business matches customer preferences and drove a 14% increase in new business applications in the first quarter compared to the prior year quarter.

隨著激勵轉向成長和成本降低，好事達代理商現在並將繼續成為競爭優勢。如今，新業務來源符合客戶偏好，推動第一季新業務應用較去年同期成長 14%。

Slide 13 shows the profitable growth of Protection Services. Revenues, which exclude the impact of net gains and losses on investments and derivatives, increased 13.6% to $627 million in the quarter. The increase in revenues was driven by continued growth at Allstate Protection Plans, generating a 19.6% increase in revenues to $329 million compared to the prior year quarter. Policies in force also increased 4.7%, reflecting growth in Allstate Protection Plans and Allstate Identity Protection.

幻燈片 13 顯示了保護服務的獲利成長。排除投資和衍生性商品淨損益的影響，本季營收成長 13.6% 至 6.27 億美元。營收成長的推動因素是 Allstate Protection Plans 的持續成長，與去年同期相比，營收成長了 19.6%，達到 3.29 億美元。有效的保單也增加了 4.7%，反映出 Allstate 保障計劃和 Allstate 身分保護的成長。

Protection Services policies in force of $147 million are approximately 4x that of property-liability, showing how ubiquitous the Allstate brand is becoming. Adjusted net income of $53 million for the first quarter of 2022 increased $4 million compared to the prior year quarter after generating $179 million of adjusted net income for all of 2021.

有效的保護服務保單金額為 1.47 億美元，約為財產責任保單的 4 倍，這表明 Allstate 品牌已變得多麼普遍。 2022 年第一季調整後淨利為 5,300 萬美元，比去年同期增加 400 萬美元，2021 年全年調整後淨利為 1.79 億美元。

Moving to Slide 14. Allstate Health and Benefits expanding product offering generated growth and income. The acquisition of National General in 2021 added both group and individual health products to our portfolio, as you can see on the left. Revenues of $581 million in the first quarter of 2022 increased 4.9% to the prior year quarter, driven by higher premiums and contract charges and other revenue, primarily in group health. Adjusted net income of $53 million decreased $12 million from the prior year quarter, driven by increased individual and group health claims.

轉到幻燈片 14。好事達健康和福利公司擴大產品供應帶來了成長和收入。 2021 年收購 National General 後，我們的產品組合中增加了團體和個人健康產品，如左圖所示。 2022 年第一季的營收為 5.81 億美元，較上年同期成長 4.9%，這得益於保費、合約費用以及其他收入（主要是團體健康收入）的增加。由於個人和團體健康索賠增加，調整後淨利潤為 5,300 萬美元，較去年同期減少 1,200 萬美元。

Now let's shift to Slide 15, which highlights our investment performance in the reduction of fixed income duration to reduce enterprise exposure to inflation. Net investment income totaled $594 million in the quarter, which is $114 million below the prior year quarter, as shown in the chart on the left. Performance-based income, shown in dark blue, was $72 million below the prior year quarter, but 2021 was an exceptional year for private equity markets and reported income.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 15，它突顯了我們在減少固定收益久期以減少企業通膨風險方面的投資表現。如左圖所示，本季淨投資收入總計 5.94 億美元，比去年同期減少 1.14 億美元。基於績效的收入（以深藍色顯示）比去年同期低 7,200 萬美元，但 2021 年對於私募股權市場和報告收入而言是異常的一年。

While results are lower compared to a strong prior year, the performance-based annualized yield of 14% in the first quarter is above long-term average performance. Market-based income, shown in blue, was $31 million below the prior year quarter. As we've discussed, our market-based portfolio yield has declined in the lower interest rate environment over the last few years, with reinvestment rates below our average fixed income portfolio yield.

雖然業績低於去年的強勁表現，但第一季基於業績的年化收益率為 14%，高於長期平均業績。基於市場的收入（以藍色顯示）比去年同期低 3,100 萬美元。正如我們所討論的，我們基於市場的投資組合收益率在過去幾年的較低利率環境中有所下降，再投資率低於我們的平均固定收益投資組合收益率。

The fixed income yield was further reduced by actions we took in the fourth quarter of 2021 to lower portfolio duration and reduce the negative impact higher inflation and interest rates would have on our fixed income portfolio valuations.

我們在 2021 年第四季採取的行動進一步降低了固定收益收益率，以降低投資組合久期並減少通膨和利率上升對我們固定收益投資組合估值的負面影響。

The chart on the right illustrates our proactive management of interest rate exposure over the interest rate cycle. After shortening duration late in the fourth quarter of 2021, we further reduced duration by 0.7 years in the first quarter. The increase in interest rates in the quarter decreased our fixed income valuations by $2 billion, resulting in a negative portfolio return of 2.8%.

右圖說明了我們在利率週期內主動管理利率風險。繼2021年第四季末縮短久期後，我們在第一季進一步縮短了0.7年。本季利率上升使我們的固定收益估值下降了 20 億美元，導致投資組合負回報率為 2.8%。

However, our interest rate risk mitigation lowered the negative impact of higher interest rates by approximately $800 million versus our position at the end of the third quarter of last year. The shorter duration portfolio also positions us to reinvest in higher market yields as interest rates continue to rise.

然而，與去年第三季末相比，我們的利率風險緩解措施將利率上升的負面影響降低了約 8 億美元。隨著利率持續上升，期限較短的投資組合也使我們能夠對更高的市場收益率進行再投資。

Now let's move to Slide 16, which highlights Allstate's strong capital position. Adjusted net income return on equity of 12.8% was below the prior year period due to lower auto insurance underwriting income. Allstate's strong capital position continues to enable significant cash returns to shareholders. We returned $1 billion through a combination of share repurchases and common stock dividends in the first quarter of 2022.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 16，它突出顯示了 Allstate 強大的資本狀況。由於車險承保收入下降，調整後淨利淨資產收益率為 12.8%，低於去年同期。好事達強大的資本狀況持續為股東帶來可觀的現金回報。 2022 年第一季度，我們透過股票回購和普通股股利結合的方式返還了 10 億美元。

Common shares outstanding were reduced by 8.1% over the last 12 months, 16.9% since 2018 and 45% since 2011, reflecting our history of providing strong cash returns to shareholders. As of March 31, 2022, we had $2.5 billion remaining on the current $5 billion share repurchase program, which is expected to be completed by early 2023.

過去 12 個月，已發行普通股減少了 8.1%，自 2018 年以來減少了 16.9%，自 2011 年以來減少了 45%，這反映了我們向股東提供強勁現金回報的歷史。截至 2022 年 3 月 31 日，我們目前 50 億美元的股票回購計畫仍有 25 億美元，預計將於 2023 年初完成。

With that context, let's open up the line for questions.

有了這樣的背景，我們就​​可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question comes from the line of Josh Shanker of Bank of America.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

2 on the NatGen or, I guess, the Agency segment. You guys added 159,000 auto policies in the quarter net and lost 5,000 homeowners policies. I don't know if those are Encompass policies or if those are NatGen policies. But it does seem like you're adding a lot of monoline auto, which is a lower persistency than the overall Allstate book. Given where your pricing is in the NatGen book, how comfortable are you with the monoline drivers you're adding right now? And what is the strategy there on April of 2022 versus where it will be in 1.5 years?

2 在 NatGen 或我猜是在 Agency 部門。你們在本季淨增加了 159,000 份汽車保單，並損失了 5,000 份房屋保單。我不知道這些是 Encompass 政策還是 NatGen 政策。但看起來你確實添加了很多單線汽車，這比整個好事達書的持久性要低。鑑於您在 NatGen 書中的定價，您對現在添加的單線驅動程式感到滿意嗎？與 1.5 年後的情況相比，2022 年 4 月的策略是什麼？

Right, Josh, let me go up and then I'll let Glenn take the specific part of it. So we bought National General in part to get into the monoline stuff you're talking about. So we wanted to -- we needed a stronger presence in the nonstandard business, particularly designed with the products and the pricing on it. We also thought we had -- and see great potential with the independent agent business.

好的，喬什，讓我上去，然後我會讓格倫負責具體部分。所以我們購買 National General 的部分原因是為了進入你所說的單線產品。所以我們想要——我們需要在非標準業務中擁有更強大的影響力，特別是在產品和定價方面的設計。我們也認為我們已經看到了獨立代理業務的巨大潛力。

And so our goal is to take that strength in nonstandard, add our standard auto insurance and our homeowners product to that portfolio and really leverage the distribution. So you should -- we expect to see not only just growth from picking up new product line, but also by expanding our existing product line through that distribution.

因此，我們的目標是利用非標準領域的優勢，將我們的標準汽車保險和房屋所有權產品添加到該投資組合中，並真正利用分銷。因此，我們不僅希望看到新產品線的成長，而且還透過該分銷擴展我們現有的產品線。

The homeowners piece is basically we've got to make them us. We're really good at homeowners. I think they were okay at homeowners. And so you see some of the reduction being us getting their profit targets to where they need to be. Glenn, why don't you take the specifics of how that works?

房主的部分基本上是我們必須讓他們成為我們自己。我們真的很擅長當房主。我認為他們對房主來說還不錯。所以你會看到，我們將他們的利潤目標達到了他們需要的目標，從而導致了一些減少。格倫，你為什麼不了解一下它是如何運作的細節？

Great. And thanks for the question, Josh. So it is definitely 2 different stories on the auto and home, as Tom mentioned. So auto, the first quarter is the shopping quarter in nonstandard auto. It's by far the biggest shopping quarter. And our National General team did a really nice job of being in the market in the right places, in the places they felt they had good profitability and the right pricing and growing effectively. So think of that one as -- and you're right, it's shorter duration business in terms of lifetime value. But that is their business model, and they make a good return on those policies. So they grew auto in that way.

偉大的。謝謝你的提問，喬許。因此，正如湯姆所提到的，這絕對是關於汽車和家庭的兩個不同的故事。所以汽車方面，第一季是非標汽車的旺季。這是迄今為止最大的購物區。我們的全國總團隊做得非常好，在正確的地方進入市場，在他們認為擁有良好盈利能力和正確定價並有效增長的地方。因此，可以將其視為——你是對的，就終身價值而言，這是一種持續時間較短的業務。但這就是他們的商業模式，他們從這些政策中獲得了豐厚的回報。所以他們就以這種方式發展汽車。

As Tom just mentioned, on the homeowners' side, this has been a shift to the homeowner strategy in NatGen time that we're in, where we're really taking the Allstate strength and making it a strength of NatGen. So they've had to get some pricing in there.

正如湯姆剛才提到的，在房主方面，這是我們所處的 NatGen 時代房主策略的轉變，我們真正利用了 Allstate 的優勢，並使之成為 NatGen 的優勢。所以他們必須在那裡獲得一些定價。

They haven't -- they've shrunk a bit in homeowners, but that's setting ourselves up for than the strategy part of this, which is as we get our middle-market products based on that Allstate data and the Allstate capabilities into the independent agent channel, marketed as National General and Allstate company, the endorsed branding, that we think we have a really great opportunity to grow homeowners with the Allstate level of sophistication and pricing and all the things I talked about in the opening remarks.

他們沒有——他們的房主數量有所減少，但這正在為我們自己做好準備，而不是戰略部分，即我們將基於好事達數據和好事達能力的中端市場產品納入獨立市場。代理管道，以National General 和Allstate 公司的名義進行營銷，得到認可的品牌，我們認為我們有一個非常好的機會來培養具有Allstate 水平的成熟度和定價以及我在開場白中談到的所有內容的房主。

But in a channel, we really haven't meaningfully been in before. So that's the path forward. But as we sit from a 1-quarter basis, we're still in, I guess, correction mode of the homeowners business there, but in a really good quarter and in a really good place from a nonstandard auto standpoint.

但在某個頻道中，我們之前確實沒有真正意義上參與過。這就是前進的道路。但當我們從第一季的角度來看，我猜我們仍然處於房主業務的修正模式中，但從非標準汽車的角度來看，這是一個非常好的季度，而且處於一個非常好的位置。

Okay. And based on my reputation as the only person who asks questions about Allstate Protection Plans, I want to go to another area that never gets any questions. Allstate commercial, as I calculated, it seems like you guys are running at about 120% combined ratio in that business, but growing very quickly. What is it and what exactly is going on there? And maybe I'm wrong.

好的。基於我作為唯一提出有關好事達保護計劃問題的人的聲譽，我想去另一個從來沒有任何問題的地區。 Allstate Commercial，據我計算，你們在該業務中的綜合成本率似乎約為 120%，但成長速度非常快。它是什麼以及到底發生了什麼事？也許我錯了。

No. We always appreciate your precision, Josh. First, I am not pleased -- none of us are pleased with the results of Allstate Business Insurance. So we review -- we've done a bunch of work to improve the profitability in that line. There's really 2 parts to the business. And one is the, what I would just call, traditional commercial insurers, small contracts or stuff like that, that we sell through Allstate agents.

不，我們一直很欣賞你的精確，喬許。首先，我不滿意──我們都對好事達商業保險的結果不滿意。所以我們回顧一下——我們已經做了很多工作來提高該領域的獲利能力。該業務實際上分為兩部分。其中之一是，我稱之為傳統商業保險公司，小合約或類似的東西，我們透過好事達代理商銷售。

And then there's the shared economy business. And it's a shared economy business that has been trouble for us from a profitability standpoint, particularly a home-sharing company and then some states in the transportation network companies.

然後是共享經濟業務。從獲利角度來看，這是一項共享經濟業務，這給我們帶來了麻煩，尤其是家庭共享公司，以及一些州的交通網絡公司。

And we made a decision last year that we weren't going to chase revenue if we didn't think that the states were profitable. So we exited a number of states, I think 3 big states in particular in the transportation network piece, because they were not profitable. And then the home-sharing business, we just got out of that contract altogether. Glenn, do you want to -- what would you like to add to that?

去年我們做了一個決定，如果我們認為各州不能獲利，我們就不會追求收入。因此，我們退出了許多州，我認為特別是在交通網絡方面的三個大州，因為它們沒有盈利。然後是房屋共享業務，我們剛剛完全擺脫了該合約。格倫，你想補充什麼嗎？

I would just add that if you look at -- when you're talking about the premium growth there, it is 2 things in large part. One is, we've raised rates in sort of the traditional small commercial business we have. So rates are materially up, units are not. The other is that a year ago, transportation businesses -- because we have -- the charge by mile and we pay them for the usage.

我想補充一點，如果你看一下——當你談論那裡的保費增長時，這在很大程度上是兩件事。一是，我們提高了傳統小型商業業務的利率。因此，利率大幅上漲，但單位卻沒有。另一個是一年前，運輸企業——因為我們有——按英里收費，我們按使用量付費。

A year ago, there was very little usage still in those transportation networks, and there's a lot more usage and therefore a lot more premium right now. And we have raised -- as Tom said, we've gotten out of some states and we've raised rates on those. So we think the profitability go forward is better. So it's not growth in that we're piling on business as we've gotten a lot more revenue coming through.

一年前，這些交通網絡的使用量還很少，但現在使用量增加了很多，因此保費也增加了很多。正如湯姆所說，我們已經提高了一些州的利率，並且提高了這些州的利率。因此我們認為未來的獲利能力會更好。因此，這並不是因為我們增加了業務，而是因為我們獲得了更多的收入，從而實現了成長。

Next question comes from the line of Greg Peters of Raymond James.

下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的格雷格彼得斯 (Greg Peters)。

I appreciate the new information and your updated investor slide deck, just FYI. So I'm going to focus my one question on Slide 8. And I'm just trying to put the pieces together of the information you provided us around pricing. Tom, you mentioned in your opening remarks surgical pricing, and you talked about how you're differentiating between lower lifetime value customers and longer lifetime values. Glenn, you talked about a lot of rate in the pipeline that's going to affect earned premium going forward.

我很欣賞您提供的新資訊和更新的投資者幻燈片，僅供參考。因此，我將把我的一個問題集中在幻燈片 8 上。我只是試圖將您向我們提供的有關定價的資訊整合在一起。湯姆，您在開場白中提到了手術定價，並談到如何區分較低終身價值的客戶和較長終身價值的客戶。格倫，您談到了正在醞釀中的許多費率，這些費率將影響未來的賺取保費。

And I was trying to reconcile the language difference from your February cat and pricing report to your March cat and pricing report. And the difference between the 2, just 1 month later in the March pricing report, you said that effectively, loss cost inflations were exceeding your targets and you were going to have to raise prices even more just 1 month later from your February pricing report. So I was hoping maybe you could put all those pieces together for us and sort of map out what's going on.

我試圖協調二月的貓和定價報告與三月的貓和定價報告之間的語言差異。兩者之間的差異是，僅1 個月後，在3 月份的定價報告中，您表示，實際上，損失成本通膨超出了您的目標，僅1 個月後，您將不得不在2 月份的定價報告中進一步提高價格。所以我希望你能為我們把所有這些碎片拼湊起來，並繪製出正在發生的事情。

Tom, did you want to start on that? Or do you want me to?

湯姆，你想開始嗎？或者你想要我這麼做嗎？

Yes, sorry, I was on mute. It was quite articulate but -- okay, great. Let me start off and then I'll get Glenn and Mario to give you more specifics. So first, obviously, increasing price is really important to getting our auto insurance possibility up. We've been aggressive, but we believe smart about spreading it between newer, less profitable customers and profitable longer-tenured customers.

是的，抱歉，我當時處於靜音狀態。說得很清楚，但是——好吧，太棒了。讓我開始，然後我會讓格倫和馬裡奧給你更多細節。首先，顯然，提高價格對於提高我們的汽車保險可能性非常重要。我們一直很積極，但我們相信將其分散到新的、利潤較低的客戶和利潤較高的長期客戶之間是明智的。

And so obviously, let's say you have a customer who has been with you 10 years and you're making a 95 combined ratio, and you have one that's new and you're losing money on it and you have to raise your rates to cover the higher inflation, which impacts both customers. If you give them both the same amount, you run the risk of losing that long-tenured profitable customer. So we put less rate into our, what we would call, older closed books and more into our newer books with shorter-term customers.

顯然，假設您有一位客戶已經與您合作了 10 年，您的綜合比率為 95，而您有一位新客戶，您正在虧損，您必須提高費率來彌補通貨膨脹率上升，這對雙方客戶都會產生影響。如果你給他們兩個相同的金額，你就有失去長期獲利客戶的風險。因此，我們將較少的利率投入到我們所謂的較舊的封閉書籍中，而將更多的利率投入到短期客戶的新書籍中。

And we believe that, that protects lifetime value and will help with retention. In this new space, retention is going to be a challenge for all companies. And so we're -- but we're trying to make sure we manage our way through it. So the numbers that you see on Slide 8 are the total between all the customers, whether new, old, profitable, unprofitable to help us get there, but it's more surgical than it appears.

我們相信，這可以保護終身價值並有助於保留。在這個新領域，保留人才將成為所有公司面臨的挑戰。所以我們——但我們正在努力確保我們能夠順利度過難關。因此，您在投影片8 上看到的數字是所有客戶的總和，無論是新客戶、老客戶、盈利的還是無利可圖的客戶，以幫助我們實現這一目標，但它比看起來更實際。

I would say the other part is what we're doing at auto profitability, back to Glenn's earlier slide, was like we know how to make money in auto insurance, and we're going to make money in auto insurance. But we want to make sure it's sustainable. One is the way we're taking those prices. Two is make sure the expense reductions are permanent, not just temporary, making sure you manage your loss costs differently and just -- and make sure you're being -- continuing to invest in sophistication and new products.

我想說的另一部分是我們在汽車盈利方面所做的事情，回到格倫之前的幻燈片，就像我們知道如何在汽車保險中賺錢，我們將在汽車保險中賺錢。但我們希望確保它是可持續的。一是我們採取這些價格的方式。二是確保費用減少是永久性的，而不僅僅是暫時的，確保您以不同的方式管理您的損失成本，並且只是 - 並且確保您正在 - 繼續投資於複雜性和新產品。

So we feel good about this, but then hopefully, that provides some insight. As to the change in the outlook, that may be more of what we said than just sort of like waking up in the month of March and deciding we're going to say something different. Glenn, do you want to talk about how this has unfolded. And Mario, if you're going to go into closures, that would be helpful.

所以我們對此感覺很好，但希望這能提供一些見解。至於前景的變化，這可能更多的是我們所說的，而不僅僅是在三月醒來並決定我們要說一些不同的東西。格倫，你想談談這件事是如何展開的嗎？馬裡奧，如果你要關閉，那會很有幫助。

Yes. So I'll start with how it unfolded. I mean -- I would say we continue to see inflation run like a lot of people continue to see. We continue to see elongated time frames for development and including prior year development. And so we're taking, I think, an appropriately conservative view and saying that like we're going to need more rate on that part of it. The other part on the precision, I want to build on what Tom said, because it's an important point because we do use a lot of precision.

是的。所以我將從它是如何展開的開始。我的意思是——我想說，我們將繼續看到通貨膨脹，就像許多人繼續看到的那樣。我們繼續看到開發時間框架延長，包括前一年的開發。因此，我認為，我們採取了適當保守的觀點，並表示我們將需要在這部分上提高利率。關於精確度的另一部分，我想以湯姆所說的為基礎，因為這是很重要的一點，因為我們確實使用了很多精度。

And I think that there some folks talk more -- or some companies talk more or less about their level of segmentation and precision. We maybe don't do a good enough job talking about the depth that we have in terms of our segmentation, which is highly sophisticated, and that's what Tom is going into. But it's sophistication at that level, but also on the go-to-market level. Because clearly, we kept marketing open, and we took an opportunity to grow some business that the economics were good on.

我認為有些人談論得更多——或者有些公司或多或少地談論他們的細分水平和精確度。我們可能在談論細分方面的深度方面做得不夠好，細分是非常複雜的，這就是湯姆要討論的內容。但這是那個層級的複雜性，也是進入市場層級的複雜性。因為顯然，我們保持了行銷開放，並抓住了發展一些經濟良好的業務的機會。

We did that because the marketing cost itself was down with others leaving that area. There were a lot of shoppers, and first quarter tends to be a time that a lot of people shop. Now we also did that with a lot of precision. It's the entire go-to-market system because we're not just to sort of have the open sign everywhere.

我們這樣做是因為行銷成本本身隨著其他人離開該地區而下降。購物者很多，第一季往往是很多人購物的時期。現在我們也非常精確地做到了這一點。這是整個市場進入系統，因為我們不僅僅是到處都有開放標誌。

It is -- we're marketing precisely where we know we have a lifetime value return based on risk type, based on market within state level. And it's a combination of underwriting, marketing, pricing that all comes together -- and distribution that all comes together with how we go to market and drive where we want to grow and how we want to grow that I think goes into the need for rate as well.

我們正在精確地進行行銷，我們知道我們可以根據風險類型、州級市場獲得終身價值回報。這是承銷、行銷、定價的結合，所有這些都結合在一起，以及分銷，所有這些都結合在一起，以及我們如何進入市場並推動我們想要成長的地方以及我們想要如何成長，我認為這涉及到費率的需要以及。

Yes. If I can just add, Greg, this is Mario. First, I guess, where I'd start is, the objective of providing that rate information monthly that we started this year was really to create a level of transparency into what we were doing with auto profitability, with rates being such a significant lever, and provide you all with a view of the progress we're making, but also some color around what we're seeing on a forward-looking basis. So that's the objective. And the language we used in the most recent disclosure provided, I think, some additional context.

是的。如果我可以補充一下，格雷格，這是馬裡奧。首先，我想，我首先要開始的是，我們今年開始每月提供費率資訊的目的實際上是為了讓我們在汽車盈利方面所做的事情達到一定程度的透明度，而費率是一個如此重要的槓桿，並向大家介紹我們正在取得的進展，同時也為我們所看到的前瞻性內容提供一些色彩。這就是目標。我認為，我們在最近的披露中使用的語言提供了一些額外的背景。

In terms of what's happening, I think we continue to look at loss trends month-in and month-out, both in terms of reserve levels, severity trends and just loss trends overall. And the statement we made in our most recent release was really a reflection of what we were seeing in loss trends and severity development, both in terms of what we saw in last year, we strengthened reserves by $151 million in auto this quarter, and what we were seeing in terms of the physical damage severity escalation as well as what -- how that translated into current year severity.

就正在發生的事情而言，我認為我們將繼續每月觀察損失趨勢，包括準備金水準、嚴重程度趨勢和整體損失趨勢。我們在最新版本中所做的聲明確實反映了我們在損失趨勢和嚴重性發展方面所看到的情況，無論是去年我們看到的情況，還是本季度我們增加了1.51 億美元的汽車準備金，以及我們看到物理損害嚴重程度升級，以及如何轉化為今年的嚴重程度。

So we're taking that data. We're looking at it. We're working with the pricing team and factoring it into our outlook. And the purpose of the disclosure again is to tell you what we did, but also provide a little more texture around what we're seeing in the market.

所以我們正在獲取這些數據。我們正在研究它。我們正在與定價團隊合作，並將其納入我們的前景中。再次揭露的目的是告訴您我們做了什麼，但也提供了有關我們在市場上看到的情況的更多資訊。

Next question comes from the line of Andrew Kligerman of Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的安德魯·克里格曼。

Yes, great answer to the prior question. I guess you didn't mention anything about non-rate actions. Would it be possible to discuss non-rate actions as maybe a percent of the business that you're able to get that on and maybe how much that might be contributing to improved performance?

是的，對上一個問題的回答很好。我猜你沒有提到任何關於非利率行動的事情。是否可以討論非利率行動，作為您能夠開展的業務的百分比，以及可能對提高績效做出多少貢獻？

Glenn, do you want to take that for both the Allstate brand and National General?

格倫，你想把 Allstate 品牌和 National General 都用這個嗎？

Yes. So one -- and if you saw the -- I'll go to the National General first. We saw that National General's underlying combined ratio looked pretty good in the first quarter. And one of the things that they have that's really stable is fee structure. The fee structure is a non-rate element that turns out to be really stable over time and helps them predict and plan for their combined ratio.

是的。所以，如果你看到了，我會先去全國將軍大會。我們看到國民將軍第一季的基本綜合成本率看起來相當不錯。他們真正穩定的事情之一就是費用結構。費用結構是一個非利率因素，隨著時間的推移，它會變得非常穩定，並幫助他們預測和規劃他們的綜合比率。

When I think about non-rate actions across the Allstate book, it really goes back to what I was talking about where it's about -- I don't like to isolate it to the word underwriting, because then it sounds like you're sort of deciding to write or not to write as opposed to getting the right level of rate for each type of risk, but that also goes into with underwriting and marketing and distribution, how you go to market.

當我想到好事達書中的非利率行動時，它實際上回到了我所談論的內容——我不喜歡將其與承保一詞隔離開來，因為這樣聽起來你就有點決定承保或不承保，而不是為每種類型的風險獲得正確的利率水平，但這也與承保、行銷和分銷以及如何進入市場有關。

And where we've really built our sophistication is in how our marketing team, our underwriting and product teams and pricing and our distribution organization deploy resources quickly and nimbly to where and how we're looking to grow. And I think that in itself generates a lot of the long-term economic value that we drive.

我們真正成熟的地方在於我們的行銷團隊、核保和產品團隊以及定價和分銷組織如何快速且靈活地將資源部署到我們希望成長的地方和方式。我認為這本身就產生了我們推動的大量長期經濟價值。

Okay. So really not any real actions to -- okay, makes a lot of sense. And then if I could just quickly sneak one in. The buyback of $794 million, that's pretty fast in terms of the pace. I thought you had about $3.3 billion left. And this implies you're going at a quicker pace. Is there a chance that you could complete that authorization by the end of this year or do more than you anticipated? Because it seems pretty robust and I was curious about the thinking there.

好的。所以實際上沒有任何實際行動——好吧，這很有意義。然後，如果我能快速潛入其中的話。回購 7.94 億美元，就速度而言相當快了。我以為你還剩下大約 33 億美元。這意味著你的步伐會更快。您是否有可能在今年年底前完成授權或完成比您預期更多的工作？因為它看起來相當穩健，我對那裡的想法很好奇。

Andrew, it's Tom. First, on the actions, you will see though -- I know you will see some things like down-pay requirements and stuff like that, that we will change going forward to help manage the selection of the business. So Glenn is absolutely right that we're being very precise in which stuff we want. But if we feel like there are certain policy terms and things we can change or payment terms that we can change that will help us, we will put those in place. On the buyback, Mario is committed to have it done early in the first quarter of next year. Mario, anything you want to add to that?

安德魯，是湯姆。首先，在行動上，你會看到——我知道你會看到一些諸如首付要求之類的東西，我們將繼續改變以幫助管理業務的選擇。所以格倫說得非常正確，我們對我們想要的東西非常精確。但如果我們覺得某些保單條款和我們可以改變的事情或我們可以改變的付款條件對我們有幫助，我們就會把它們落實到位。關於回購，馬裡奧承諾在明年第一季初完成。馬裡奧，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that's right, Tom. So I wouldn't read too much into any one quarter. We still have $2.5 billion left to buy. We said we'll complete it by early next year, and that's the plan.

不，我認為是對的，湯姆。所以我不會對任何一個季度進行太多解讀。我們還有 25 億美元可供購買。我們說過我們將在明年初完成它，這就是計劃。

Next question comes from the line of David Motemaden of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

I had a question on Slide 8 or Page 8. It says that you guys have a higher mix of newer, more expensive vehicles. Glenn, I believe you said that those vehicles come with higher premiums, and they can adversely impact total loss severity when vehicle values rise. Does the fact that you have more of a mix of more expensive vehicles, does that increase -- or does that mean that you need to take more rate relative to peers? Or I guess, how should I interpret this mix difference that you guys have versus peers?

我在投影片 8 或第 8 頁上有一個問題。它說你們擁有更多更新、更昂貴的車輛。格倫，我相信你說過這些車輛的保費較高，當車輛價值上升時，它們可能會對總損失的嚴重程度產生不利影響。事實上，你擁有更多更昂貴的車輛，這種情況是否會增加——或者這是否意味著你需要相對於同行採取更高的利率？或者我想，我該如何解釋你們與同行之間的這種混合差異？

Glenn, do you want to do that?

格倫，你想這麼做嗎？

Yes. So there's a few parts to that because I'll talk more macro about the auto -- the car park out there and like the whole system. With every new model year, newer that we get and every year that passes, we've done the math through what's in our book of business, what type of safety elements are in cars, accident avoidance, technology and everything. And we know 2 things: one, that we get a little bit of a tailwind with every year that passes on frequency, and we get a little bit of a headwind on severity because they're more expensive to fix, more sensors and so on.

是的。所以這有幾個部分，因為我會更宏觀地談論汽車——那裡的停車場以及整個系統。隨著每個新車型的推出，我們得到的新車型以及過去的每一年，我們都會對我們的業務手冊中的內容、汽車中的安全元件類型、事故避免、技術等等進行數學計算。我們知道兩件事：第一，隨著頻率的增加，我們每年都會遇到一些順風，而嚴重性方面我們也會遇到一些逆風，因為它們的修復成本更高，感測器更多等等。

And the reason I started there is that would be true of this example as well. The fact that our book of business tends to trend that way more, it will give us a little bit of a sustainable benefit on frequency in comparison to others, and it will give us a little bit of a sustainable headwind on the severity. But we do charge premium based on make-and-model year, and you get a higher premium for it.

我從這裡開始的原因是這個例子也是如此。事實上，我們的業務簿更傾向於這種趨勢，與其他公司相比，它將在頻率上為我們帶來一些可持續的好處，並且在嚴重性上為我們帶來一些可持續的阻力。但我們確實根據品牌和型號年份收取保費，並且您可以獲得更高的保費。

It was more of a statement in that opening that as we look at and we try to put our trends, whether we're looking at fast track or looking at public disclosures, when we look at our trends on bodily injury or property damage, which are third-party vehicles, and then collision first-party vehicles, we see some of that difference come through and then have to like do the math back to our premium and ensure that we're getting the right rates for all of that.

在開場白中，這更多的是一種聲明，當我們審視並嘗試展示我們的趨勢時，無論我們是在關注快速通道還是在關注公開披露，當我們關注人身傷害或財產損失的趨勢時，是第三方車輛，然後是碰撞第一方車輛，我們看到其中存在一些差異，然後必須重新計算我們的保費，並確保我們獲得所有這些的正確費率。

Next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields of KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

Fantastic. I wanted to dig in a little more to your comments on homeowners and the automatic lift because we've seen a little bit of deterioration in the underlying loss ratio all of last year and continuing into the first quarter. Is the automatic, I guess, inflation changing? Are there other steps that are necessary in homeowners?

極好的。我想進一步深入了解您對房主和自動電梯的評論，因為我們看到去年全年基本損失率略有惡化，並持續到第一季。我猜，通貨膨脹是自動變動的嗎？房主還需要採取其他步驟嗎？

Well, the -- first, we're really happy with where the homeowners business is today in terms of its profitability. As you know, sometimes it bounces around because of catastrophes, and we had slightly lower catastrophes this quarter than the prior year quarter, but still earned a really good return. The underlying combined ratio, as you point out, which excludes catastrophes, ticked up a little bit. We feel comfortable with where that is, in part because of the inflation parts that you mentioned that come through, what we call PIA, Property Insurance Adjustment.

嗯，首先，我們對房主業務目前的獲利能力非常滿意。如你所知，有時它會因為災難而反彈，本季我們的災難發生率略低於去年同期，但仍然獲得了非常好的回報。正如您所指出的，排除災難的基礎綜合比率略有上升。我們對此感到滿意，部分原因是您提到的通貨膨脹部分，我們稱之為 PIA，財產保險調整。

It really raises average premium. And as that burns in to earned premium, just like it does burn through in auto, then that covers some of those increased costs. If it doesn't, we have plenty of room to go in and continue to [raise] prices. Glenn, what would you add about severity and the combined ratio in homeowners?

它確實提高了平均保費。當它消耗掉賺取的溢價時，就像它在汽車領域消耗掉一樣，那麼這將彌補部分增加的成本。如果沒有，我們有足夠的空間進入並繼續[提高]價格。格倫，您對房主的嚴重程度和綜合比率有何補充？

Yes. So first, I always start with -- I think we're accountable for the recorded combined ratio. Because ultimately, if we always had a good underlying, but like we hadn't gotten the right reinsurance or we hadn't been in the right locations and we hadn't done good risk mapping for wildfire or hail or hurricane or any other exposure and we were constantly running what the industry or key competitors run, I think you would rightfully hold us accountable for that. So I always go back to the recorded combined ratio.

是的。因此，首先，我總是從——我認為我們對記錄的綜合比率負責。因為歸根結底，如果我們始終擁有良好的基礎，但就像我們沒有獲得正確的再保險，或者我們沒有處於正確的位置，並且我們沒有針對野火、冰雹、颶風或任何其他暴露做好良好的風險映射而且我們一直在運行行業或主要競爭對手的運作方式，我認為您有理由讓我們為此負責。所以我總是回到記錄的綜合比率。

That said, the underlying, as Tom said, it moves up and down a little bit, and we do watch that, primarily though we watch the recorded combined ratio. Right now, like Tom, I feel really good about where we are. Severity ran hot in the first quarter. It's tough to look at one quarter in homeowners and draw a lot of conclusions, because there's a decent amount of volatility between the mix of perils in homeowners. It's not nearly as stable as auto in that way.

也就是說，正如湯姆所說，標的物會上下移動一點，我們確實會觀察這一點，主要是儘管我們會觀察記錄的綜合比率。現在，像湯姆一樣，我對我們所處的位置感覺非常好。第一季的嚴重程度非常高。很難觀察四分之一的房主並得出許多結論，因為房主面臨的各種風險之間存在相當大的波動性。在這方面，它不像汽車那麼穩定。

And so we're watching that. That was a high number, but we got an average price increase, average earned premium of 14.3% burning through, which really ticked up in the latter part of the year last year. So will continue to give us benefit as that earns through. And we're in -- obviously, we're really good shape in homeowners, and I feel good about it.

所以我們正在關注這一點。這是一個很高的數字，但我們得到了平均價格上漲，平均盈利溢價燒穿了 14.3%，而去年下半年確實有所上升。因此，隨著收入的增加，我們將繼續受益。顯然，我們的房主狀況非常好，我對此感覺很好。

Okay. That's helpful. Second question on the auto side. I just want to make sure that I'm understanding the commentary on the surgical application of rate increases. Should we expect, I guess, suppressed new business as the strategy works its way through to the extent that rate increases are being focused on lower-tenured customers?

好的。這很有幫助。關於汽車方面的第二個問題。我只是想確保我理解有關手術應用加息的評論。我想，隨著該策略的實施，我們是否應該預期新業務會受到抑制，以至於升息主要集中在期限較短的客戶上？

I'll start off and then, Glenn, you can jump in. I think a lot of this primarily depends on what happens in the competitive environment. So as other people are taking [rates], it depends where they're spreading their rates. So if you buy it on the renewal book, then that will create more shoppers because those tend to be people who shop less than just putting it all on the new business.

我先開始，然後格倫，你可以插話了。我認為這很大程度上取決於競爭環境中發生的情況。因此，當其他人採用[費率]時，這取決於他們將費率分散到哪裡。因此，如果你在續訂書上購買它，那麼這將創造更多的購物者，因為這些人往往購物量較少，而不僅僅是把所有錢都花在新業務上。

But part of it depends what happens, how people do it. That said, we feel pretty good about where we track our competitive position, the LTI index -- with our LTI Index at this point. So we're hopeful that as we move through this, we'll still continue to grow. With Transformative Growth on top of that, we think that it all still hangs together in terms of increasing market share. Glenn, what would you add to that?

但這部分取決於發生的情況以及人們如何做。也就是說，我們對追蹤我們的競爭地位（LTI 指數）感到非常滿意——目前我們的 LTI 指數。因此，我們希望在經歷這過程的過程中，我們仍將繼續成長。除此之外，我們認為，在變革性成長的基礎上，在增加市場佔有率方面，這一切仍然是緊密相連的。格倫，你想補充什麼？

I'll just add, if you take the long term and the short term, the long term first, as Tom said, our expanded customer access, our work on improving value as we get the 3 points across that Mario talked about out and we've got access into all these systems and we get middle market products into the IA channel and our exclusive agents are humming, we've got a really good long-term prognosis on that.

我只想補充一點，如果你同時考慮長期和短期，那麼首先是長期，正如湯姆所說，我們擴大了客戶訪問範圍，我們在提高價值方面所做的工作，因為我們得到了馬裡奧談到的三點，我們我們已經可以訪問所有這些系統，我們可以將中間市場產品引入 IA 管道，我們的獨家代理商也很活躍，我們對此有了非常好的長期預測。

With your question, you were asking, I think, some about the short term. So as you think about what we did early this year, we pulled marketing dollars forward. And we talked about the fact that we pulled them forward. That's not the same as increasing them. It did increase in the quarter, but it's pulling it forward. That means it does have to come out of somewhere, too.

我認為，你的問題是在問一些關於短期的問題。因此，當您思考我們今年年初所做的事情時，我們將行銷資金向前推進了。我們談到了我們推動他們前進的事實。這與增加它們不同。該季度確實有所增長，但它正在推動這一趨勢向前發展。這意味著它也必須來自某個地方。

We decided to do that because there were good economics on the marketing. A number of companies publicly talked about pulling back from marketing that left from the supply and demand curve of marketing costs that left it reasonable, and there was good economics on it, plus a lot of business gets sold in the first quarter. So we thought with a lot of shoppers in the market with rates out there, that it would be a good time to be in the market where we had our prices in and we felt good about the lifetime value.

我們決定這樣做是因為行銷具有良好的經濟效益。許多公司公開談論退出行銷，使行銷成本的供需曲線保持合理，並且具有良好的經濟效益，而且第一季有很多業務被出售。因此，我們認為，市場上有很多購物者，價格都在那裡，現在是進入市場的好時機，我們有價格，我們對終身價值感覺良好。

That said, inflation is continuing to run. And we're taking more rate, and we pulled that money forward from later. So marketing will reduce from this point, and that could have a short-term impact on new business growth. Plus we've got -- everybody will have headwinds on retention with the amount of rate that's in the system across the industry.

也就是說，通貨膨脹仍在持續。我們正在收取更高的利率，並且我們從以後提前了這筆錢。因此，行銷活動將從此時開始減少，這可能會對新業務成長產生短期影響。另外，我們發現——每個人都會在保留率方面遇到阻力，因為整個行業系統中的費率都很高。

Yes. I think when you go back to Glenn's long term, bottom line, we like prospects for sustainable profitable growth. I mean, auto insurance, we know how to make money. And with Transformative Growth, we really like to grow that business. You add homeowners on top of that, which is really a growth business. And just like price and value are important to auto insurance customers, it's also important in investing. And when you look at the price of Allstate, it's essentially less than your other options. That's why we think Transformative Growth is going to increase (inaudible) multiples.

是的。我認為，當你回到格倫的長期利潤時，我們喜歡可持續獲利成長的前景。我的意思是，汽車保險，我們知道如何賺錢。透過變革性成長，我們真的很喜歡發展這項業務。除此之外，您還可以添加房主，這確實是一項增長型業務。就像價格和價值對汽車保險客戶很重要一樣，對投資也很重要。當您查看 Allstate 的價格時，您會發現它基本上低於您的其他選擇。這就是為什麼我們認為變革性成長將會增加（聽不清楚）倍數。

Next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith of UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布萊恩梅瑞迪斯 (Brian Meredith)。

A quick question here. On Slide 11 of your supplement, you've got an interesting chart here that looks at auto state profitability. Just my question is, is this based on an earned kind of basis, or is it on a written basis? And if it's on an earned basis, how would this chart look on a written basis as far as what states do you think are currently pretty close to rate adequate?

這裡有一個簡單的問題。在補充資料的幻燈片 11 中，您有一個有趣的圖表，該圖表顯示了汽車國家的盈利能力。我的問題是，這是基於賺取的基礎，還是基於書面的基礎？如果是在賺取的基礎上，就您認為目前哪些州非常接近充足率而言，這張圖表在書面基礎上看起來如何？

Well, that's a tough question. I don't know if we -- Glenn, do you want to take the forward-looking...

嗯，這是一個很難回答的問題。我不知道我們是否——格倫，你想採取前瞻性的…

Yes, I'll take it. Yes. So it's definitely earned basis in that we look at our -- when you look at combined ratios, it's on an earned basis. So you're hitting a really important point. So it's an astute observation. Because I think about that disclosure and you could look at -- when you look at the percentage of states that are above 100, for example, that is not the same as looking at the way we look at where do we want to grow. Because the state could be above 100 right now, but we've just gotten in the rate we feel we need to be adequate.

是的，我會接受的。是的。因此，這絕對是基於賺取的基礎，因為當您查看綜合比率時，它是基於賺取的基礎。所以你說到了一個非常重要的點。所以這是一個敏銳的觀察。因為我考慮到這一披露，你可以看看——例如，當你查看超過 100 的州的百分比時，這與我們查看我們想要在哪裡增長的方式不同。因為該州現在可能會超過 100，但我們剛剛達到了我們認為需要足夠的速度。

So any new business we put on is going to be at a rate-adequate level that we like, and we would want to grow there. So it really does lag and you have to go back to Page 8 and see where that -- which we don't -- because that's an estimate. We don't estimate every state and disclose based on when we'll earn the premiums and what percentage will earn by state and what that will do. But the point is, while that's a snapshot of where we are today, that does not reflect all of the written premiums and increases that we've got.

因此，我們開展的任何新業務都將達到我們希望的適當水平，我們希望在那裡發展。所以它確實有滯後，你必須回到第 8 頁看看它在哪裡——我們沒有——因為那是一個估計。我們不會估計每個州，也不會根據我們何時賺取保費、各州賺取的保費百分比以及這將產生什麼作用來進行披露。但關鍵是，雖然這是我們今天狀況的一個快照，但這並不能反映我們所獲得的所有書面保費和成長。

Okay. Well, thank you all for engaging with us today. As we go forward, we look forward to, in the next month or so, talking about homeowners. And then we'll continue to execute in the meantime our multi-faceted plan, both to improve profitability of auto insurance and to get Transformative Growth because that's a key component to sustainable growth, and both of those will improve shareholder value.

好的。好的，謝謝大家今天接受我們的訪問。隨著我們的前進，我們期待在下個月左右討論房主的問題。然後，我們將同時繼續執行我們的多方面計劃，既提高汽車保險的盈利能力，又實現轉型增長，因為這是可持續增長的關鍵組成部分，而這兩者都將提高股東價值。

So thank you for your engagement, and we'll talk to you soon.

感謝您的參與，我們很快就會與您聯繫。

Thank you so much to our presenters and to everyone who participated. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

非常感謝我們的主持人和所有參與者。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。