Allstate Corp (ALL) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Allstate Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加 Allstate 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的節目正在錄製中。

And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Mr. Mark Nogal, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想介紹一下今天節目的主持人，投資者關係主管馬克·諾加爾先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Jonathan.

謝謝你，喬納森。

Good morning.

早安.

Welcome to Allstate's Second Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎參加 Allstate 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。

After prepared remarks, we'll have a question-and-answer session.

準備好發言後，我們將進行問答環節。

Yesterday, on the close of the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement and posted related materials on our website at allstateinvestors.com.

昨天收盤時，我們發布了新聞稿和投資者補充資料，並在我們的網站 allstateinvestors.com 上發布了相關資料。

Our management team is here to provide perspective on these results.

我們的管理團隊在此提供這些結果的看法。

As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will contain non-GAAP measures for which there are reconciliations in the news release and investor supplement and forward-looking statements about Allstate's operations.

正如簡報第一張投影片中所指出的，我們的討論將包含非公認會計原則措施，這些措施在新聞稿和投資者補充資料以及有關好事達營運的前瞻性聲明中進行了調節。

Allstate's results may differ materially from these statements, so please refer to our 10-K for 2020 and other public documents for information on potential risks.

Allstate 的結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，因此請參閱我們的 2020 年 10-K 和其他公開文件，以了解有關潛在風險的資訊。

And now I'll turn it over to Tom.

現在我將把它交給湯姆。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。

Let's start on Slide 2. Today, we're going to link operating results and strategy in order to show how we expect to continue to generate shareholder value.

讓我們從投影片 2 開始。今天，我們將把經營績效和策略連結起來，以展示我們期望如何繼續創造股東價值。

So Allstate's strategy has 2 components: increase personal profit liability market share; and expand protection solutions, which are shown in the 2 ovals on the left.

因此，好事達的策略有兩個組成部分：增加個人利潤負債市場佔有率；並擴展保護解決方案，如左側兩個橢圓所示。

The Transformative Growth plan to increase market share and personal profit liability has 4 components.

旨在增加市場份額和個人利潤責任的轉型成長計劃有 4 個組成部分。

This strategy will drive market valuation by executing, innovating and focusing on long-term value creation.

該策略將透過執行、創新和專注於長期價值創造來推動市場估值。

So in the first half of the year, we executed well for customers, we executed well financially and for shareholders, as you can see on the right-hand panel.

因此，在今年上半年，我們為客戶、財務和股東執行得很好，正如您在右側面板中看到的那樣。

Property-Liability market share increased by approximately 1 percentage point due to the acquisition of National General.

由於收購 National General，財產負債市佔率增加了約 1 個百分點。

Allstate Protection Plans continue to grow rapidly by broadening the product offering to include appliance and furniture and expanding availability through Home Depot stores.

好事達保護計畫透過擴大產品範圍以包括電器和家具以及透過家得寶商店擴大供應範圍，繼續快速成長。

Strong execution generated excellent financial results, with revenues increasing 23.8% compared to the prior year, adjusted net income of $3 billion and a return on equity of 23.8% for the last 12 months.

強大的執行力帶來了出色的財務業績，過去 12 個月的收入比上年增長 23.8%，調整後淨利潤為 30 億美元，股本回報率為 23.8%。

Shareholders benefited from a 50% increase in the quarterly common dividend and a reduction in outstanding shares by 2.4% just this year under the current $3 billion share repurchase program.

根據目前 30 億美元的股票回購計劃，今年季度普通股股息增加了 50%，流通股減少了 2.4%，股東從中受益。

Yesterday, the Board approved a new $5 billion common share repurchase program, which represents approximately 13% of current market capitalization, and we expect to complete that by the end of March of 2023.

昨天，董事會批准了一項新的 50 億美元普通股回購計劃，約佔當前市值的 13%，我們預計將於 2023 年 3 月底完成。

Let's continue on Slide 3. In addition to operating execution, we're innovating to create long-term value.

讓我們繼續看投影片 3。除了營運執行之外，我們還透過創新來創造長期價值。

The Transformative Growth plan to create a digital insurance company is making good progress.

創建數位保險公司的轉型成長計劃正在取得良好進展。

Today, we're going to spend time talking about the distribution component of that plan.

今天，我們將花時間討論該計劃的分配部分。

Allstate is amongst the leaders in telematics capabilities with Drivewise in the industry's largest pay-per-mile product Milewise, which offers customers unique value.

Allstate 是遠端資訊處理功能的領導者之一，其 Drivewise 是業內最大的按英里付費產品 Milewise，為客戶提供了獨特的價值。

Arity, our telematics service platform company, recently launched Arity IQ, which, when combined with LeadCloud and Transparent.ly platforms, will integrate telematics information into pricing at the time of quote rather than at the times after the sale.

我們的遠端資訊處理服務平台公司Arity最近推出了Arity IQ，與LeadCloud和Transparent.ly平台相結合，將在報價時而不是在銷售後將遠端資訊處理資訊整合到定價中。

We enhanced our competitive position in independent agent channel by using National General to consolidate and improve our IA business model.

我們利用National General 鞏固和完善IA 業務模式，增強了獨立代理通路的競爭地位。

We executed agreements to sell Allstate Life Insurance Company and Allstate Life Insurance Company of New York to redeploy capital out of lower growth and return businesses and reduce exposure to interest rates.

我們簽署了出售 Allstate Life Insurance Company 和 Allstate Life Insurance Company of New York 的協議，以將資本從成長和回報較低的業務中重新配置出來，並減少利率風險。

Increasing market share, while maintaining attractive returns and expanding protection solutions through transformation, targeted acquisitions and divestitures will create shareholder value.

增加市場份額，同時保持有吸引力的回報並透過轉型擴大保護解決方案，有針對性的收購和剝離將創造股東價值。

Slide 4 lays out the Allstate's strong second quarter performance.

幻燈片 4 展示了好事達第二季的強勁業績。

Revenues of $12.6 billion in the quarter increased 21.6% compared to the prior year, largely reflects the National General acquisition and higher net investment income.

該季度營收為 126 億美元，較上年同期成長 21.6%，很大程度上反映了 National General 收購和更高的淨投資收益。

Property-Liability premiums earned and policies in force increased by 12.9% and 12.1%, respectively.

所賺取的財產責任保費和有效保單分別增加了 12.9% 和 12.1%。

Net investment income of $974 million increased by over $0.75 billion compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting $649 million of income from the performance-based portfolio.

淨投資收入為 9.74 億美元，與去年同期相比增加超過 7.5 億美元，反映出基於績效的投資組合收入為 6.49 億美元。

Net income of $1.6 billion was reported in the second quarter compared to $1.2 billion in the prior year.

第二季淨利為 16 億美元，而上年同期為 12 億美元。

Adjusted net income was $1.1 billion or $3.79 per diluted share, as you can see from the table on the bottom.

調整後淨利為 11 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 3.79 美元，如底部表格所示。

That's a 40% increase from the prior year quarter.

這比去年同期增長了 40%。

Allstate's excellent execution and strong operating results in the quarter contributed to that return on equity, which I just mentioned, of 23.8% over the last 12 months.

好事達本季出色的執行力和強勁的營運表現促成了我剛才提到的過去 12 個月的 23.8% 的股本回報率。

Let's move to Slide 5 to discuss our progress on building Transformative Growth business models.

讓我們轉到投影片 5，討論我們在建立變革性成長業務模型方面的進展。

So Transformative Growth, it's a multiyear initiative, and what we're working to do is build a low-cost digital insurer with broad distribution, and that's going to be accomplished through 4 areas: expanding customer access, improving customer value, increasing sophistication and investment in customer acquisition, and deploying new technology ecosystem.

因此，轉型成長是一項多年計劃，我們正在努力建立一家具有廣泛分銷能力的低成本數位保險公司，這將透過四個領域來實現：擴大客戶訪問範圍、提高客戶價值、提高複雜性和投資於客戶獲取和部署新技術生態系統。

In Transformative Growth, you wouldn't do it all in 1 day, of course, so it's got 5 phases, and substantial progress has been made in Phases 2 and 3. Phase 2 successes include improving the competitive price position of auto insurance, protecting margins by reducing costs.

當然，在變革性成長中，您不可能在一天內完成所有工作，因此它分為5 個階段，並且在第2 和第3 階段取得了實質進展。第2 階段的成功包括提高車險的競爭價格地位、保護透過降低成本來獲得利潤。

New advertising was launched with increased investment.

加大投入，推出新廣告。

We also are off to an excellent start with National General.

我們在國民大會上也有了一個好的開始。

And of course, the phases overlap, so progress is also being made in Phase 3. So we're transforming the distribution platform, including supporting transition of Allstate agents to higher-growth and lower-cost models, which we'll discuss on the next slide.

當然，這些階段是重疊的，因此第三階段也取得了進展。因此，我們正在改造分銷平台，包括支援 Allstate 代理商向更高成長和更低成本模式的過渡，我們將在下一張幻燈片。

Improving customer acquisition sophistication will lower cost relative to lifetime value.

提高客戶獲取的複雜性將降低相對於生命週期價值的成本。

We continue to focus on lowering underwriting claims expenses to deliver lower-cost protection to customers, and we've designed a new technology architecture.

我們持續致力於降低承保索賠費用，為客戶提供更低成本的保護，並且我們設計了全新的技術架構。

We've coded much of the new applications.

我們已經對許多新應用程式進行了編碼。

The next step for us is to launch an integrated system with one product in one state.

我們的下一步是推出一個整合系統，一種產品處於一種狀態。

Turning to Slide 6. Let's review how we're transforming the Allstate agent, Allstate direct sales and independent agent distribution platforms to grow market share.

轉向投影片 6。讓我們回顧一下我們如何改造 Allstate 代理商、Allstate 直銷和獨立代理商分銷平台以擴大市場份額。

The illustrative slides on the right side of the slide show -- provide a view into our growth expectations by channel over time.

投影片右側的說明性投影片提供了我們按管道隨時間推移的成長預期的視圖。

Starting with Allstate exclusive agents, we're making progress transitioning to a higher-growth and lower-cost model.

從好事達獨家代理商開始，我們正在向高成長和低成本模式的轉型取得進展。

This year, we changed agent compensation by increasing new business compensation opportunity and reducing of bonus paid on policy renewals.

今年，我們透過增加新業務薪酬機會和減少保單續保獎金來改變代理人薪酬。

We expect to continue this shift from renewal compensation to new sales because it aligns with what consumers want.

我們預計將繼續這種從續約補償到新銷售的轉變，因為它符合消費者的需求。

Consumers want assistance with purchasing insurance more than they want routine policy service.

與常規保單服務相比，消費者更需要購買保險的協助。

To lower cost for agents, we're digitizing processes, redesigning products to increase self-service and expanding centralized service support.

為了降低代理商的成本，我們正在數位化流程、重新設計產品以增加自助服務並擴大集中服務支援。

We're also working to reduce agent operating expenses and real estate costs.

我們也致力於減少代理營運費用和房地產成本。

These changes will improve the customer value proposition with lower cost and easier service.

這些變化將以更低的成本和更便利的服務改善客戶價值主張。

Now of course, you're not going to do this in 1 day either, so a multiyear transformation -- transition program is in place to support existing agents.

當然，現在您也不會在一天之內完成此任務，因此需要實施多年轉型—過渡計畫來支援現有代理人。

We've initiated it, and it has different levels of support based on agent performance.

我們已經啟動了它，並且根據代理的表現提供了不同級別的支援。

Given this transition, we reduced new agent employment last year, which has had a negative impact on new business levels.

鑑於這一轉變，我們去年減少了新代理商的僱用，這對新業務水平產生了負面影響。

But as Mario will discuss next, this has been offset by higher productivity from existing agents.

但正如馬裡奧接下來將討論的那樣，這已被現有代理商更高的生產力所抵消。

At the same time, we have 2 new agent models in market, which have personal touch but a lower cost structure.

同時，我們在市場上有兩種新的代理模式，它們具有個人風格，但成本結構較低。

All of these changes are supported by more competitive auto insurance pricing and increased marketing spending, which is designed to continue to grow.

所有這些變化都得到了更具競爭力的汽車保險定價和行銷支出的增加的支持，而行銷支出的目的是繼續增長。

But as you can see on the right, the net impact of these changes for the Allstate agent channel is to be flat to a slight decline in sales in the short term but increased growth thereafter.

但正如您在右側所看到的，這些變化對好事達代理通路的淨影響是持平，短期內銷售額略有下降，但此後增長加快。

The Allstate direct sales effort leverages the capabilities that we built for the Esurance brand, and we've shifted our advertising focus away from Esurance to be totally focused on the Allstate brand and utilizing the direct channel for Allstate-branded sales as well.

Allstate 直銷工作利用了我們為 Esurance 品牌打造的功能，我們將廣告重點從 Esurance 轉移到完全專注於 Allstate 品牌，並利用直接管道進行 Allstate 品牌銷售。

And pricing is lower than the Allstate agent model since it doesn't come with the help of an agent.

而且定價低於 Allstate 代理模式，因為它不需要代理的幫助。

And as this business grows, we're improving our operational and marketing effectiveness.

隨著這項業務的成長，我們正在提高我們的營運和行銷效率。

Direct sales now represent 29% of new auto business sales, and we expect that to continue to grow rapidly, as you can see on the right.

目前直銷佔新汽車業務銷售額的 29%，我們預期這一比例將持續快速成長，如右圖所示。

Independent agent distribution also represents an attractive growth opportunity.

獨立代理分銷也代表著一個有吸引力的成長機會。

The acquisition of National General enhanced our capabilities in this channel, and it added 4 million policies in force.

收購National General增強了我們在這個通路的能力，增加了400萬份有效保單。

Additional growth is expected by broadening the product portfolio from high-risk drivers to middle-market auto and home insurance through the existing agent relationships.

透過現有的代理關係將產品組合從高風險駕駛者擴大到中端市場汽車和家庭保險，預計將實現額外成長。

We also expect to increase the number of agents actively engaged in selling National General products.

我們也期望增加積極從事銷售國家通用產品的代理商數量。

So when you combine this effective and efficient distribution with more competitive auto insurance pricing, enhanced marketing, advanced pricing and telematics and a digital experience, that's the Transformative Growth plan that will drive Property-Liability market share growth.

因此，當您將這種有效且高效的分銷與更具競爭力的汽車保險定價、增強的營銷、先進的定價和遠程信息處理以及數位體驗結合起來時，這就是將推動財產負債市場份額增長的變革性成長計劃。

So Mario will now discuss the second quarter results in more detail.

因此，馬裡奧現在將更詳細地討論第二季的業績。

Thanks, Tom.

謝謝，湯姆。

Turning to Slide 7. Let's dive deeper into the near-term results on our multifaceted approach to grow Property-Liability market share.

轉向幻燈片 7。讓我們更深入地了解我們增加財產負債市場份額的多方面方法的近期結果。

As you can see in the chart on the left side of the slide, Property-Liability policies in force grew by 12.1% compared to the prior year quarter primarily driven by National General and growth in Allstate brand new business.

正如您在幻燈片左側的圖表中看到的那樣，有效的財產責任保單與去年同期相比增長了 12.1%，這主要是由國家綜合保險和好事達全新業務的增長推動的。

National General, which includes Encompass, contributed growth of 4 million policies, and Allstate brand Property-Liability policies increased in the quarter driven by growth in homeowners and other personal lines.

包括 Encompass 在內的 National General 貢獻了 400 萬份保單的成長，而 Allstate 品牌財產責任保單在本季度因房主和其他個人險種增長而有所增加。

Allstate brand auto policies in force declined slightly compared to the prior year quarter but increased sequentially for the second consecutive quarter, including growth of 111,000 policies compared to prior year, and as you can see by the table on the lower left.

有效的 Allstate 品牌汽車保單與去年同期相比略有下降，但連續第二個季度環比增長，其中與去年同期相比增加了 111,000 份保單，如左下表所示。

The chart on the right shows a breakdown of personal auto new issued applications compared to prior year.

右圖顯示了與前一年相比個人汽車新簽發申請的細目。

We continue to make progress in building higher-growth business models as we look to achieve leading positions in all 3 primary distribution channels.

我們在建立更高成長的業務模式方面繼續取得進展，希望在所有 3 個主要分銷管道中取得領先地位。

The middle section of the chart on the right shows Allstate brand impacts by channel, which in total generated a 6.7% increase in new business growth compared to the prior year.

右側圖表的中間部分顯示了好事達按管道的品牌影響力，與前一年相比，新業務成長總計增加了 6.7%。

Modest increases from existing agents, excluding new appointments, and a 31% increase in the direct channel more than offset the volume that would normally have been generated by newly appointed agents, as we pilot new agent models with higher growth and lower costs.

現有代理商的小幅成長（不包括新任命）以及直接管道 31% 的成長，超過了新任命代理商通常產生的銷量，因為我們正在試點增長更快、成本更低的新代理商模式。

The addition of National General also added 481,000 new auto applications in the quarter.

National General的加入也使該季度新增了481,000份汽車申請。

Let's turn to Slide 8 to review Property-Liability margin results in the second quarter.

讓我們轉向投影片 8 來回顧第二季度的財產負債利潤率結果。

The recorded combined ratio of 95.7% increased 5.9 points compared to the prior year quarter.

綜合成本率為 95.7%，與去年同期相比增加了 5.9 個百分點。

This was primarily driven by increased losses relative to the historically low auto accident frequency experienced in the prior year quarter due to the pandemic.

這主要是由於疫情導致的損失增加，而上一年季度發生的汽車事故頻率處於歷史低點。

Increased losses were partially offset by lower pandemic-related expenses primarily shelter-in-place paybacks in 2020 as well as lower catastrophe losses.

增加的損失被流行病相關費用的減少（主要是 2020 年就地避難所的投資回報）以及災難損失的減少所部分抵消。

These are represented by the green bars in the combined ratio reconciliation chart on the lower left of the slide.

這些由幻燈片左下角的組合比率調節圖表中的綠色條表示。

Shifting to the chart on the bottom right, we continue to make progress in reducing our cost structure.

轉到右下角的圖表，我們在降低成本結構方面繼續取得進展。

This enables improvement in the competitive price position of auto insurance and investments in marketing and technology, while maintaining strong returns.

這有助於提高汽車保險的競爭價格地位以及行銷和技術投資，同時保持強勁的回報。

The total Property-Liability expense ratio of 24.7% in the second quarter decreased by 7.1 points compared to the prior year, again, driven by lower coronavirus-related expenses.

第二季總財產負債費用率為 24.7%，較上年同期下降 7.1 個百分點，這再次受到新冠病毒相關費用下降的推動。

This was partially offset by the amortization of purchased intangibles associated with the acquisition of National General, restructuring charges and a 0.7-point increase from higher investment in advertising.

這部分被收購 National General 相關的無形資產攤提、重組費用以及廣告投資增加 0.7 個百分點所抵銷。

Excluding these items, as shown by the dark blue bars, the expense ratio decreased by 0.4 points in the second quarter compared to the prior year period, decreased 1.7 points below year-end 2019 and 2.5 points below year-end 2018, reflecting continued progress in improving cost efficiencies.

剔除這些項目，如深藍色長條所示，第二季度費用率較去年同期下降 0.4 個百分點，較 2019 年末下降 1.7 個百分點，較 2018 年末下降 2.5 個百分點，反映出持續進步提高成本效率。

Claims expenses have also been reduced through innovations such as QuickFoto Claim, Virtual Assist and aerial imagery, which also improves the customer experience.

QuickFoto Claim、虛擬助理和空拍影像等創新也降低了索賠費用，這也改善了客戶體驗。

These claim improvements are not reflected in the expense ratio but are in the loss ratio and also helped maintain margins.

這些索賠改善並未反映在費用率中，而是反映在損失率中，也有助於維持利潤率。

Moving to Slide 9, let's discuss how our auto insurance profitability, which remains very strong and is still favorable to prepandemic levels despite pandemic-driven volatility.

轉到幻燈片 9，讓我們討論一下我們的汽車保險盈利能力如何，儘管大流行引發了波動，但我們的汽車保險盈利能力仍然非常強勁，並且仍然有利於大流行前的水平。

Allstate Protection auto underlying combined ratio finished at 91.8%.

好事達保險汽車底層綜合成本率收在 91.8%。

As you can see from the chart, the level remains favorable to 2017 through 2019 historical second quarter and year-end levels despite increasing by 9.4 points compared to the prior year quarter.

從圖表中可以看出，儘管與去年同期相比增加了 9.4 個百分點，但該水準仍有利於 2017 年至 2019 年第二季和年底的歷史水準。

The increase to the prior year quarter reflects a comparison to a period with historically low auto accident frequencies.

與去年同期相比的成長反映了與歷史上車禍頻率較低的時期的比較。

The improvement relative to historical levels is driven by auto accident frequency remaining below prepandemic levels, partly offset by auto severity increases and competitive pricing enhancements.

相對於歷史水準的改善是由於汽車事故頻率仍低於疫情前的水平，部分被汽車嚴重程度的增加和競爭性定價的增強所抵消。

To illustrate the pandemic-driven volatility, Allstate brand auto property damage gross frequency increased 47.3% from the prior year quarter but is 21% lower than the same period in 2019.

為了說明疫情造成的波動，好事達品牌汽車財產損失總頻率比去年同期增加了 47.3%，但比 2019 年同期下降了 21%。

Auto severity increases persisted relative to the prior year quarter and prepandemic periods across coverages, largely driven by the shift in mix to more severe, higher-speed auto accidents and rising inflationary impacts in both used car values and replacement part costs.

與去年同期和大流行前時期相比，整個保險範圍內的汽車嚴重程度持續增加，這主要是由於汽車事故組合轉向更嚴重、速度更快的汽車事故以及二手車價值和更換零件成本不斷上升的通膨影響。

The incurred severity increases are running higher than general inflation, which are reflected in the recorded combined ratio.

所發生的嚴重程度的增加高於總體通貨膨脹，這反映在記錄的綜合比率中。

To counteract rising severity, we are leveraging advanced claim capabilities, predictive modeling, advanced photo and video utilization and deep expertise in repair process management to enable a scaled response to inflation and supply constraints.

為了應對日益嚴重的問題，我們正在利用先進的索賠功能、預測模型、先進的照片和影片利用以及維修流程管理方面的深厚專業知識，以大規模應對通貨膨脹和供應限制。

Targeted price increases will also be implemented, as necessary, to maintain attractive auto insurance returns.

如有必要，還將實施有針對性的價格上漲，以保持有吸引力的車險回報。

Now let's shift to Slide 10, which highlights investment performance for the second quarter.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 10，其中重點介紹了第二季的投資績效。

Net investment income totaled $974 million in the quarter, which was $754 million above the prior year quarter, driven by higher performance-based income as shown in the chart on the left.

該季度的淨投資收入總計 9.74 億美元，比去年同期高出 7.54 億美元，這得益於較高的績效收入（如左圖所示）。

Performance-based income totaled $649 million in the second quarter, as shown in gray, reflecting both idiosyncratic and broad-based valuation increases in private equity investments and, to a lesser extent, gains from the sales of real estate equity.

第二季基於業績的收入總計 6.49 億美元，如灰色所示，反映了私募股權投資的特殊且廣泛的估值增長，以及在較小程度上反映了房地產股權銷售的收益。

Market-based income, shown in blue, was $3 million above the prior year quarter.

基於市場的收入（以藍色顯示）比去年同期高出 300 萬美元。

The impact of reinvestment rates below the average interest-bearing portfolio yield was mitigated in the quarter by higher average assets under management and prepayment fee income.

再投資率低於平均計息投資組合收益率的影響在本季因平均管理資產和預付款費用收入的增加而得到緩解。

Our total portfolio return in the second quarter totaled 2.6%, reflecting income as well as higher fixed income and equity valuations.

第二季我們的投資組合總報酬率為 2.6%，反映了營收以及較高的固定收益和股票估值。

We take an active approach to optimizing our returns per unit risk over appropriate investment horizons.

我們採取積極的方法，在適當的投資期間內優化單位風險的回報。

Our investment activities are integrated into our overall enterprise risk-and-return process and play an important role in generating shareholder value.

我們的投資活動融入了整個企業風險與回報流程，並在創造股東價值方面發揮重要作用。

We draw upon a deep and experienced team of roughly 350 professionals to leverage expertise in asset allocation, portfolio construction, fundamental research, deal leadership, quantitative methods, manager selection and risk management.

我們擁有一支由約 350 名專業人士組成的深厚且經驗豐富的團隊，利用資產配置、投資組合建構、基礎研究、交易領導、定量方法、經理選擇和風險管理的專業知識。

While the results for this quarter were exceptionally strong, particularly for the performance-based investments, we managed the portfolio with a longer-term view on returns.

儘管本季的業績異常強勁，尤其是基於績效的投資，但我們以更長遠的回報視角來管理投資組合。

At the right, we have provided our annualized portfolio returns over a 3-, 5-, and 10-year horizon.

在右側，我們提供了 3 年、5 年和 10 年的年化投資組合回報。

As disclosed in our investor supplement, our performance-based portfolio has delivered an attractive 12% IRR over the last 10 years, which compares favorably to relevant public and private market comparisons.

正如我們在投資者補充資料中所揭露的，我們基於績效的投資組合在過去 10 年中實現了 12% 的內部報酬率，這與相關的公開和私人市場比較相比具有優勢。

Our performance-based strategy takes a longer-term view, where we seek to deliver attractive absolute and risk-adjusted returns and supplement market risk with idiosyncratic risk.

我們以績效為基礎的策略著眼於長遠，力求提供有吸引力的絕對和風險調整回報，並以特殊風險補充市場風險。

Moving to Slide 11.

轉到投影片 11。

Protection Services continues to grow revenue and profit.

保護服務收入和利潤持續成長。

Revenues, excluding the impact of realized gains and losses, increased 27.1% to $581 million in the second quarter.

剔除已實現損益的影響，第二季營收成長 27.1% 至 5.81 億美元。

The increase was driven by continued rapid growth in Allstate Protection Plans and expanding marketing services at Arity due to the integration of LeadCloud and Transparent.ly, which were acquired as part of the National General acquisition.

這一成長的推動因素是 Allstate Protection Plans 的持續快速成長以及 Arity 行銷服務的擴展（由於 LeadCloud 和 Transparent.ly 的整合，後者是作為 National General 收購的一部分而獲得的）。

Policies in force increased 15.5% to $147 million, also driven by Allstate Protection Plans and supported by the successful launch with the Home Depot in the first quarter.

有效保單成長了 15.5%，達到 1.47 億美元，這也是由好事達保障計劃推動的，以及第一季度與家得寶 (Home Depot) 成功推出的支持。

Adjusted net income was $56 million in the second quarter, representing an increase of $18 million compared to the prior year quarter driven by profitable growth at Allstate Protection Plans and profits at Arity and Allstate Identity Protection.

第二季調整後淨利為 5,600 萬美元，比去年同期增加 1,800 萬美元，主要得益於 Allstate Protection Plans 的獲利成長以及 Arity 和 Allstate Identity Protection 的利潤。

Allstate Protection Plans generated adjusted net income of $42 million in the second quarter and $155 million over the past 12 months.

Allstate Protection Plans 第二季調整後淨利為 4,200 萬美元，過去 12 個月為 1.55 億美元。

Now let's move to Slide 12, which highlights Allstate's attractive returns and strong capital position.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 12，其中突出顯示了 Allstate 有吸引力的回報和強勁的資本狀況。

Allstate continued to generate attractive returns in the second quarter with adjusted net income return on equity of 23.8% for the last 12 months, which was 5.8 points higher than the prior year.

好事達第二季度繼續創造頗具吸引力的回報，過去 12 個月調整後淨資產收益率為 23.8%，比上年同期高 5.8 個百分點。

Excellent capital management and strong financial results have enabled Allstate to return cash to shareholders, while simultaneously investing in growth.

出色的資本管理和強勁的財務表現使好事達能夠向股東返還現金，同時投資於成長。

We continue to provide significant cash returns to shareholders in the second quarter through a combination of $562 million in share repurchases and $245 million in common stock dividends.

第二季度，我們繼續透過 5.62 億美元的股票回購和 2.45 億美元的普通股股息，為股東提供可觀的現金回報。

We announced the acquisition of SafeAuto in June, leveraging National General's success in integrating companies to accelerate growth.

我們在 6 月宣布收購 SafeAuto，利用 National General 在整合公司的成功來加速成長。

The current $3 billion share repurchase program is expected to be completed in the third quarter.

目前30億美元的股票回購計畫預計將在第三季完成。

And yesterday, the Board approved a new $5 billion share repurchase authorization to be completed by March 31, 2023.

昨天，董事會批准了一項新的 50 億美元股票回購授權，將於 2023 年 3 月 31 日完成。

This represents approximately 13% of our current market capitalization.

這約占我們目前市值的 13%。

This new authorization continues Allstate's strong track record of providing cash returns to shareholders and reflects, in part, the deployable capital generated by the sale of our life and annuity businesses.

這項新授權延續了好事達向股東提供現金回報的良好記錄，並在一定程度上反映了出售我們的人壽和年金業務所產生的可部署資本。

Moving to Slide 13.

轉到投影片 13。

It should be clear that Allstate is an attractive investment opportunity.

很明顯，好事達是一個有吸引力的投資機會。

When you invest in Allstate, you get ownership of a company with advanced capabilities and a clear strategy, delivering superior financial results relative to peers and the broader market.

當您投資好事達時，您將獲得一家擁有先進能力和明確策略的公司的所有權，該公司能夠提供相對於同行和更廣泛市場而言更出色的財務表現。

The table below shows Allstate across key financial metrics over the past 5 years compared to the S&P 500 and property-casualty insurance peers with a market cap of $4 billion or more.

下表顯示了好事達過去 5 年的主要財務指標與標準普爾 500 指數以及市值 40 億美元或以上的財產保險同行的比較。

As you can see by the 4 measures on the top, operating EPS, operating return on average equity, cash yield and total shareholder return, Allstate is consistently ranked in the top 2 or 3 amongst its peers.

從頂部的 4 項指標（營業每股收益、平均股本營業回報率、現金收益率和股東總回報率）可以看出，好事達在同行中始終排名前 2 或前 3 名。

In the case of operating EPS and cash yield to common shareholders, Allstate is in the top 10 and top 15%, respectively, compared to the S&P 500.

就營業每股收益和普通股股東現金收益率而言，與標準普爾 500 指數相比，好事達分別位居前 10% 和前 15%。

Moving down one row, Allstate's top line revenue growth relative to peers and the S&P 500 is in the middle of the pack.

與同業和標準普爾 500 指數相比，好事達的營收成長下降了一排，處於中間位置。

We are committed to accelerating top line performance through Transformative Growth and innovating protection, while continuing to deliver excellent financial results.

我們致力於透過轉型成長和創新保護來加速營收績效，同時持續提供卓越的財務表現。

Moving down to the price-to-earnings ratio.

下調至本益比。

Allstate is well below average, 8 out of 10 P&C peers, and in the 10th percentile amongst the S&P 500.

Allstate 遠低於平均水平，在 10 個財產和意外險同行中排名第 8，在標準普爾 500 指數中排名第 10 個百分點。

This is an attractive valuation given our market-leading capabilities, excellent returns, future growth prospects and commitment to accelerate growth.

考慮到我們市場領先的能力、優異的回報、未來的成長前景以及加速成長的承諾，這是一個有吸引力的估值。

Now let me turn it back over to Tom.

現在讓我把它轉回給湯姆。

I've turned to Slide 14.

我翻到了幻燈片 14。

Let's finish where we started with a more macro and longer-term view of Allstate's execution, innovation and long-term value creation.

讓我們從更宏觀、更長遠的角度來看待好事達的執行、創新和長期價值創造。

And this is the whole report card.

這就是整個成績單。

This is what you get by investing in Allstate.

這就是您投資好事達所獲得的回報。

Empowering customers with protection is a core part of our shared purpose.

為客戶提供保護是我們共同目標的核心部分。

We provide a broad set of protection solutions with over 180 million protection policies in force.

我們提供廣泛的保護解決方案，擁有超過 1.8 億個有效的保護政策。

You see our name whether you're watching TV, you're in Walmart, you're in Target, you're in Costco, you're in Home Depot.

無論您在看電視、在沃爾瑪、在 Target、在 Costco、在 Home Depot，您都會看到我們的名字。

Allstate is ubiquitous out there protecting customers.

好事達無所不在地保護客戶。

We constantly achieve industry-leading margins on auto and home insurance and have attractive risk-adjusted investment returns.

我們在汽車和家庭保險方面不斷實現領先業界的利潤率，並擁有有吸引力的風險調整投資回報。

As a result, the adjusted net income return on equity has averaged 15.6% from 2016 to 2020, ranking #2 in our peer group.

因此，2016 年至 2020 年調整後淨利淨資產收益率平均為 15.6%，在同業中排名第二。

This has led to a 14.9% annualized total shareholder return over the last 5 years.

這導致過去 5 年股東年化總回報率為 14.9%。

We have a history of innovation.

我們有創新的歷史。

Transformative Growth is a multiyear personal, Property-Liability strategy to build a digital platform that offers low-cost, affordable, simple and connected protection solutions.

變革性成長是一項多年的個人財產責任策略，旨在建立一個數位平台，提供低成本、經濟實惠、簡單且互聯的保護解決方案。

We're simultaneously innovating protection by expanding through telematics, product warranties and identity protection.

我們同時透過遠端資訊處理、產品保固和身分保護進行擴展來創新保護。

In telematics, we've taken a broad and aggressive approach with the insurance offerings and the creation of Arity, a leading telematics business.

在遠端資訊處理方面，我們在保險產品方面採取了廣泛而積極的方法，並創建了領先的遠端資訊處理業務 Arity。

Allstate is also innovating in corporate citizenship, focusing on climate change, privacy and equity.

好事達還在企業公民方面進行創新，重點關注氣候變遷、隱私和公平。

For example, we used an underwriting syndicate for our $1.2 billion bond offering last year that was exclusively minority women and veteran-owned banking enterprises.

例如，我們去年使用了一個承銷團來發行 12 億美元的債券，該公司專門針對少數族裔女性和退伍軍人擁有的銀行企業。

Long-term value is also being created through proactive capital management and strong governance.

積極的資本管理和強大的治理也正在創造長期價值。

Over the past 5 and 10 years, we've repurchased 25% and 50%, respectively, of outstanding shares.

在過去的5年和10年裡，我們分別回購了25%和50%的流通股。

Among the S&P 500, Allstate is in the top 15% of cash provided to shareholders.

在標準普爾 500 指數中，Allstate 躋身向股東提供現金的前 15% 之列。

At the same time, we've successfully invested over $6 billion in acquisitions, including Allstate Protection Plans, Allstate Identity Protection and National General.

同時，我們已成功投資超過 60 億美元進行收購，包括 Allstate Protection Plans、Allstate Identity Protection 和 National General。

And of course, strong governance is key to delivering those results.

當然，強而有力的治理是實現這些成果的關鍵。

Allstate has an experienced and diverse management team and Board with relevant expertise.

好事達擁有一支經驗豐富、多元化的管理團隊和具有相關專業知識的董事會。

This is acknowledged by the leading proxy advisory firm that awarded Allstate the top score for governance.

領先的代理諮詢公司承認了這一點，該公司授予 Allstate 治理最高分。

Execution, innovation and long-term value creation will continue to drive increased shareholder value.

執行力、創新和長期價值創造將繼續推動股東價值的增加。

With that context, let's open the line for your questions.

有了這樣的背景，讓我們開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Greg Peters。

So I'd like to go back to Slide 5, Tom, and -- where you lay out the Transformative Growth strategy.

所以我想回到投影片 5，湯姆，您在其中製定了變革性成長策略。

And in the Phase 2 area, you report on substantial progress being made in terms of improved competitive price position in auto insurance.

在第二階段領域，您報告了在提高汽車保險價格競爭地位方面取得的重大進展。

When I went to your supplement, I observed that the average gross premium in the auto brand continued to be lower relative to prior quarters.

當我查看你們的補充資料時，我發現該汽車品牌的平均毛保費相對於前幾季繼續較低。

And I'm just curious how you think about pricing today given the increase in frequency and certainly the increase in severity in the context of your strategy to have an improved competitive price position.

我只是很好奇，考慮到頻率的增加，以及在您的策略背景下提高競爭性價格地位的嚴重程度的增加，您如何看待今天的定價。

Okay.

好的。

Let me start, and then I'll get Glenn to jump in.

讓我開始吧，然後我會讓格倫加入。

First, in terms of Transformative Growth, we made a conscious strategic decision to improve the competitive position of auto insurance.

首先，在轉型成長方面，我們有意識地做出了提升車險競爭地位的策略決策。

When we looked at our cost structure, we looked at where other people were, we decided we needed to be more competitive on price.

當我們審視我們的成本結構時，我們審視了其他人的情況，我們決定我們需要在價格上更具競爭力。

And so we've been working on that.

所以我們一直在努力。

We've reduced our costs.

我們降低了成本。

We reduced price.

我們降低了價格。

We know we're more competitive in the market, not because -- you can't really look at the average prices, Greg, because they -- everybody starts in a different place.

我們知道我們在市場上更具競爭力，不是因為——你無法真正查看平均價格，格雷格，因為——每個人都從不同的地方開始。

So if you were at 100 and I'm at 95, and you go down 2%, it doesn't make you -- really, it makes you more competitive but not competitive.

所以，如果你是 100，我是 95，你下降了 2%，這並不會讓你——實際上，它會讓你更有競爭力，但不會有競爭力。

So we look at close rates, and we know our -- we look at the -- when people come to us, they quote what percentage do we close.

因此，我們專注於成交率，我們知道我們的——我們關注——當人們來找我們時，他們會引用我們成交的百分比。

And when the close rate goes up, you assume you're more price competitive, and you have a better value proposition.

當成交率上升時，您會認為自己更具價格競爭力，並且擁有更好的價值主張。

And in fact, that's been true this year, which is one of the reasons why our new business is up.

事實上，今年確實如此，這也是我們新業務成長的原因之一。

Now we do that, of course, with great surgical precision.

當然，現在我們以極高的手術精度做到了這一點。

So let me maybe provide an overview of auto insurance profitability because it was the focus of so many of the reports issued last night, and then Glenn can jump into what we've got going forward.

因此，也許讓我概述一下汽車保險的盈利能力，因為這是昨晚發布的許多報告的焦點，然後格倫可以開始討論我們的未來發展。

But -- and I'll start with the analytical structure that I use to evaluate our performance in ways that hopefully will be helpful from an investment perspective.

但是——我將從分析結構開始，我用它來評估我們的業績，希望從投資的角度來看會有所幫助。

The headline would be to evaluate starting with the current absolute number, don't use one analytical method to assess the future and build on your margin for error.

標題是從目前的絕對數字開始評估，不要使用一種分析方法來評估未來並建立在誤差範圍之上。

So the current combined ratio for auto insurance this quarter generated an attractive return on capital.

因此，本季汽車保險目前的綜合成本率產生了頗具吸引力的資本回報率。

When you look at the number, it's a good return on capital.

當你看這個數字時，你會發現這是一個很好的資本報酬率。

Looking forward, of course, is what I need to do and investors need to do.

當然，展望未來是我需要做的，也是投資人需要做的。

And the forecasting challenge is that the volatility of the components is so high that it's hard to do a quarterly forecast that's accurate enough to make an important decision.

預測面臨的挑戰是，各組成部分的波動性如此之高，以至於很難做出足夠且準確的季度預測來做出重要決策。

So for example, let's say the percentage is up and down.

舉例來說，假設百分比是上升和下降的。

They're really hard to evaluate.

他們確實很難評價。

The outcome of 50% decrease and a 30% increase is a 65%.

減少 50% 和增加 30% 的結果是 65%。

A 45% decrease and a 35% increase, it sounds pretty similar, right, but it's a 74%.

減少 45% 和增加 35%，聽起來很相似，對吧，但實際上是 74%。

That small 5-point difference on each side creates a 9-point difference on margins.

雙方5分的小差距造成了9分的差距。

There are typically less than that.

通常少於這個數。

So given the volatility of the percentage changes, we build in margins for error.

因此，考慮到百分比變化的波動性，我們建立了誤差幅度。

So as it relates to our projections, the forecast so far this year has been pretty good.

因此，就我們的預測而言，今年迄今的預測相當不錯。

Severity was higher than expected.

嚴重程度高於預期。

But given the volatility of those percentages in the environment, we made sure there was enough margin in pricing and reduced expenses.

但考慮到這些百分比在環境中的波動性，我們確保定價有足夠的餘裕並減少費用。

So as a result, our absolute level of profitability was good and better than many of our competitors' reported sales.

因此，我們的絕對獲利水準很好，並且比許多競爭對手報告的銷售額還要好。

So the overall goal, of course, is profitable growth.

因此，整體目標當然是獲利成長。

And the best way to manage that total is then you focus on the components, whether that's state by state, line by line or inside the actual cost structure.

管理總成本的最佳方法是專注於各個組成部分，無論是逐州、逐行或實際成本結構內部。

So Glenn has established goals for the rest of the year on price increases, severity control and expense reductions.

因此，格倫制定了今年剩餘時間的價格上漲、嚴重程度控制和費用削減的目標。

And we have the processes, the math, the state managers that are -- enable us to achieve and adapt, which we have a consistent track record of doing.

我們擁有流程、數學和狀態管理器，使我們能夠實現和適應，我們在這方面有著一致的記錄。

So I think when I see people making percentage changes over each quarter, looking at the percentage change of us versus the percentage change of competitors, I'm like, when you got the numbers moving around this fast, you really have to go back to the absolute and say, "Did you make money?

因此，我認為，當我看到人們每個季度都發生百分比變化時，看看我們的百分比變化與競爭對手的百分比變化，我想，當你的數字變化如此之快時，你真的必須回到絕對的並說：「你賺錢了嗎？

How did you make money?

你是怎麼賺錢的？

And how do you make sure you keep making money going forward?"

你如何確保你繼續賺錢？”

With that, let me turn it over to Glenn, who can talk a little bit about what he's going to -- got planned for the rest of the year.

說到這裡，讓我把它交給格倫，他可以談談他今年剩餘時間的計劃。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks, Tom.

謝謝，湯姆。

And Greg, if I go to the first part of your question on price position, the best measure of price competitiveness is our close rate, and our close rates are up.

格雷格，如果我回答你關於價格定位的問題的第一部分，衡量價格競爭力的最佳標準是我們的成交率，而我們的成交率正在上升。

So we've seen good result on the fact that, for a few years, as Mario covered earlier, we've taken expenses out of the system.

因此，我們已經看到了良好的結果，因為幾年來，正如馬裡奧之前提到的，我們已經從系統中扣除了費用。

We've taken those expenses and essentially allowed customers to get better value from us, and that's improving our close rates, which has helped.

我們承擔了這些費用，基本上讓客戶從我們這裡獲得了更好的價值，這提高了我們的成交率，這很有幫助。

The second part, when you talked about going forward with frequency and severity, as Tom said, we had a pretty good forecast on frequency, and it's continued to be lower when you go on a 2-year basis.

第二部分，當你談到繼續推進頻率和嚴重程度時，正如湯姆所說，我們對頻率有一個很好的預測，當你以兩年為基礎時，它會繼續降低。

The 1-year comparisons right now are interesting on just about everything.

現在的一年比較幾乎在所有方面都很有趣。

But on a 2-year basis, they're prepandemic, they're -- continue to be meaningfully lower.

但從兩年的角度來看，它們在大流行前，它們——繼續顯著降低。

Some of that will be just the new different world that we're in, with fewer people working in office buildings and traveling in rush hour.

其中一些只是我們所處的新的不同世界，在辦公大樓工作和在高峰時段出行的人越來越少。

Some of that will revert back over time.

隨著時間的推移，其中一些會恢復。

But we've had really good forecast on that.

但我們對此有非常好的預測。

The frequency has been higher -- I'm sorry, the severity has been higher with inflationary factors.

頻率更高了——抱歉，通貨膨脹因素的嚴重性更高。

And so we're looking at that and where we have to take pricing, we will.

所以我們正在考慮這個問題，我們會在必須定價的地方進行定價。

And I guess, when you put them together, the key is in how we've been forecasting and when we look at when the line will cross, and what I mean by that is we knew that -- what severity is -- compounds over time.

我想，當你把它們放在一起時，關鍵在於我們如何預測以及當我們考慮界限何時交叉時，我的意思是我們知道 - 嚴重性是什麼 - 複合時間。

So once you're a couple of years in, which we are now when you're comparing to 2019, you've got a couple of years of severity increases.

因此，一旦進入幾年，與 2019 年相比，我們現在的情況就會加劇，嚴重程度也會增加幾年。

At some point, it's going to be greater than the benefit that is persisting on frequency, and you cross that line.

在某些時候，它會比持續的頻率帶來的好處更大，然後你就跨越了這條線。

And so we're pretty good at forecasting about the time we're crossing that line.

因此，我們非常擅長預測跨越這條線的時間。

We moved prices slightly down.

我們將價格略微下調。

In some places, we're still good with those down.

在某些地方，我們仍然可以很好地應對這些問題。

We still have opportunity to even be more competitive.

我們仍然有機會變得更具競爭力。

In other places, we're going to have to take them up.

在其他地方，我們將不得不接受它們。

But we don't have wild swings happening in terms of our pricing.

但我們的定價並沒有劇烈波動。

We've been pretty careful and cautious to do things that we thought were sustainable, and we're going to continue to do things that we think are sustainable.

我們一直非常謹慎和謹慎地做我們認為可持續的事情，並且我們將繼續做我們認為可持續的事情。

So as we take expenses out, continuing to do for the remainder of the year, the loss cost management that the claims team is doing and our pricing actions, we think there's more ground we can make up from a competitive position standpoint.

因此，當我們扣除費用並在今年剩餘時間內繼續進行索賠團隊正在進行的損失成本管理以及我​​們的定價行動時，我們認為從競爭地位的角度來看，我們可以彌補更多的不足。

That was a very thorough answer.

這是一個非常徹底的答案。

I was going to ask a question on expenses, but I got to just follow up on your point on severity and crossing the line.

我本來想問一個關於費用的問題，但我必須跟進你關於嚴重性和越界的觀點。

As you know, there's so much oxygen going on around inflationary pressures in the marketplace.

如您所知，市場上的通膨壓力充滿了氧氣。

And some of it's viewed maybe perhaps being transitory, some of it being structural and longer term in nature.

其中一些可能被認為是暫時的，另一些則具有結構性和長期性。

And I guess, what I'm looking for from you guys is what's your view on the severity trends.

我想，我想從你們那裡尋找的是你們對嚴重性趨勢的看法。

And can you give us some perspective on that crossing-the-line analogy that you used, Glenn?

格倫，你能給我們一些關於你使用的越界類比的看法嗎？

Well, Greg, we don't do forecast, combined ratio or the components of a combined ratio.

嗯，格雷格，我們不做預測、綜合比率或綜合比率的組成部分。

But I think when you look at -- and interesting, though, when you look at the supplement, you'll see the paid on property damage is down.

但我認為，當你查看——有趣的是，當你查看補助金時，你會發現財產損失的賠償金額有所下降。

We -- that's not related to the way we're booking.

我們——這與我們的預訂方式無關。

They just happen to be paid, and there was some timing.

他們只是碰巧得到報酬，並且有一些時間安排。

So when you look at severity, you have to be clear on the difference between what you paid and what you think you're going to pay eventually.

因此，當您考慮嚴重性時，您必須清楚您所支付的金額與您認為最終將要支付的金額之間的差異。

And so we think severity -- we know severity is up this year.

所以我們認為嚴重性——我們知道今年嚴重性有所上升。

We booked it up both first quarter and second quarter, even a little more.

我們第一季和第二季都預訂滿了，甚至還多了一點。

And -- but so Glenn's got it factored into his pricing.

而且 - 但格倫已將其納入他的定價中。

Glenn, anything you want to say about -- maybe talk about -- a little bit about severity control, things like that.

格倫，你想說的任何事情——也許可以談論——一些關於嚴重性控制的事情，諸如此類的事情。

Yes.

是的。

And just to the point about what's transitory and what's in there, I think you have to look at both frequency and severity in that way, like they're -- components of frequency.

就什麼是暫時性的以及其中存在什麼而言，我認為你必須以這種方式看待頻率和嚴重性，就像它們是頻率的組成部分一樣。

Like we get really detailed into looking at the miles driven.

就像我們非常詳細地查看行駛里程一樣。

It isn't just what are the total miles driven out there.

這不僅是行駛的總里程數。

It's by state.

這是依州規定的。

It's urban versus rural.

這是城市與鄉村的對比。

It's commuting time versus not.

這是通勤時間與非通勤時間。

It's weekend versus weekday and night/day.

這是週末與工作日以及夜晚/白天的對比。

So when we look at all of this, we have a view on what we believe is transitory and what is more sustainable on frequency as well as on severity.

因此，當我們審視所有這些時，我們會對我們認為什麼是暫時的以及什麼在頻率和嚴重性上更可持續有自己的看法。

But the controls that we have from a claims standpoint, we have a really strong claims team.

但從索賠的角度來看，我們擁有一支非常強大的索賠團隊。

And they use, first of all, proprietary models that we have that escalate claims that either need to be expedited, moved faster or need to be prepared for defense in terms of injury claims, that tell us the likelihood of litigation, the likelihood of representation, things like that.

首先，他們使用我們擁有的專有模型來升級索賠，這些索賠要么需要加急、更快地移動，要么需要為受傷索賠做好辯護準備，這告訴我們訴訟的可能性、代理的可能性， 像這樣的東西。

We leverage our scale really well in that we have long-term pricing deals on a lot of the parts and labor that are out there for whether it's auto or home.

我們很好地利用了我們的規模，因為我們對許多零件和勞動力進行了長期定價交易，無論是汽車還是家庭。

So some of that acts as a hedge towards inflation, and it's not perfect because we're in the same inflationary environment that others are in.

因此，其中一些措施可以對沖通膨，但它並不完美，因為我們與其他國家處於相同的通膨環境。

But we do, with our buying power, have good long-term deals that we've negotiated that help to hedge that to some degree and then really strong quality processes that we manage across the system.

但憑藉我們的購買力，我們確實達成了良好的長期協議，這有助於在某種程度上對沖這種情況，然後我們在整個系統中管理真正強大的品質流程。

So we feel good about our ability to manage within the environment, but also we have to price for it as it moves.

因此，我們對自己在環境中進行管理的能力感到滿意，但我們也必須在環境變化時為其定價。

And I guess I'll close by saying if anything our history has been proven, I would say, we do a really good job managing to our returns.

我想我最後要說的是，如果我們的歷史已經得到證實的話，我會說，我們在管理回報方面做得非常好。

And Mario and Tom talked about those in the opening quite a bit.

馬裡奧和湯姆在開場時就這些問題進行了很多討論。

We will manage to produce the right returns.

我們將設法產生適當的回報。

And when we need to take price to do that, we do it.

當我們需要定價來做到這一點時，我們就會這樣做。

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。

A little bit more of a key off of the last questions.

最後一個問題的關鍵一點。

But one of the questions I'm getting a lot is whether or not there will be sort of regulatory issues with auto, in particular, if we need to get more rate.

但我經常聽到的問題之一是汽車是否會出現某種監管問題，特別是如果我們需要獲得更高的利率。

And I'd love to hear your thoughts on how that gets managed at Allstate.

我很想聽聽您對好事達如何管理這一點的想法。

Let me maybe start with a little macro, and then Glenn can talk about anything that we're doing specifically.

讓我先從一個宏觀的角度開始，然後格倫可以談論我們具體正在做的任何事情。

Paul, I think the first place I would start is the regulatory reaction tends to start with what the consumers think, and consumers are in a pretty good place.

保羅，我認為我首先要開始的是監管反應往往從消費者的想法開始，而消費者的處境非常好。

Our customers are in a pretty good place.

我們的客戶處於一個非常好的境地。

We gave them $1 billion back last year.

去年我們回饋了他們 10 億美元。

There's plenty of -- if you look at savings rates and cash and bank accounts and all that kind of stuff, consumers are not -- have some pricing built -- there's not a lot of pricing pressure coming from consumers these days.

如果你看看儲蓄率、現金和銀行帳戶以及所有類似的東西，消費者並沒有製定一些定價——現在消費者沒有太大的定價壓力。

So we can -- the kind of percentages increase that we need are not so large.

所以我們可以──我們需要的百分比成長並不是那麼大。

You're not talking about double-digit price increases that caused everybody to call their insurance regulator and say, "Hey, I don't like this world." So we don't see a lot of consumer pushback.

你不是在談論兩位數的價格上漲，導致每個人打電話給他們的保險監管機構並說：“嘿，我不喜歡這個世界。”因此，我們沒有看到太多消費者的抵制。

When you look at the regulators, we have a good relationship with our regulators.

當你看看監管機構時，我們與監管機構有著良好的關係。

I mean we were 10 days in last year, I mean, I think it was like 10 days into March, we were like, "Oh my gosh.

我的意思是去年我們有 10 天，我的意思是，我認為進入 3 月有 10 天，我們就像，「哦，天哪。

We got to do something about this." So we went out proactively to regulators and said, "Hey, we don't have a requirement to do this.

我們必須對此採取一些措施。」因此，我們主動向監管機構表示，「嘿，我們沒有這樣做的要求。

We have no contractual requirement to do it, but we know you want us to do it.

我們沒有合約要求這樣做，但我們知道您希望我們這樣做。

So we're going to do it in advance, upfront," and we led the industry in doing that.

因此，我們將提前做好這件事，」我們在這方面處於行業領先地位。

So we feel like we have good relationships with them.

所以我們覺得我們和他們的關係很好。

We've been balanced as to how we approach it.

對於如何處理它，我們一直保持平衡。

And we've been able to earn the economic rents in the marketplace by -- and compete successfully.

我們已經能夠透過以下方式在市場上賺取經濟租金——並成功競爭。

Now Glenn, anything you want to talk about in terms of specifics?

現在，格倫，您想談談具體細節嗎？

Well, first, I think it's a really good point with some of the credibility we earned last year because it's not only the SIPP, the return of the money, but the fact that we went out there and proactively had the idea to say we're just going to waive the requirement that you have an endorsement to do deliveries, let's say, with your car and turn your car into an economic vehicle for you -- for people that were out of work.

嗯，首先，我認為這對我們去年贏得的一些信譽來說是一個非常好的觀點，因為這不僅是 SIPP、資金返還，而且是我們走出去並主動提出我們的想法。我們只是放棄了用你的汽車進行送貨的認可的要求，並將你的汽車變成你的經濟交通工具- 對於那些失業的人。

They appreciated the fact that we were thinking about the way people were having to live their lives and not having to have to go buy an endorsement to do it, and we just gave it away for free and filed that across 50 states in a matter of days, and special payment plans allowing people more time to pay.

他們讚賞我們正在考慮人們的生活方式，而不必去購買代言來做到這一點，我們只是免費贈送並在 50 個州提交了該文件天，以及特殊的付款計劃，讓人們有更多的時間付款。

So I think we did build a lot of credibility with that.

所以我認為我們確實以此建立了許多可信度。

But I think the core of this is the regulators have actuaries, and we have actuaries, and they are math-based.

但我認為核心是監管機構有精算師，我們也有精算師，他們是基於數學的。

So this is -- sometimes you get into some emotion with it, but it's really a fact-based and math-based situation.

所以，有時你會對此產生一些情緒，但這確實是基於事實和數學的情況。

So when severities go up or loss ratios move, their actuaries see what our actuaries see, and we have a great relationship working through that one.

因此，當嚴重程度上升或損失率發生變化時，他們的精算師會看到我們的精算師所看到的，並且我們在解決這個問題方面有著良好的關係。

Yes.

是的。

When rent-a-cars go from $50 a day to $100 a day or used car prices to go up 40%, regulators know you've got to make -- you've got to collect more money to take care of it.

當租車價格從每天 50 美元漲到每天 100 美元，或二手車價格上漲 40% 時，監管機構知道你必須賺更多的錢來應對。

Makes sense.

說得通。

And I'd like to ask a homeowners' question.

我想問一下樓主的問題。

I tend to think that people underestimate the variability and impact to the home business.

我傾向於認為人們低估了家庭企業的可變性和影響。

Can you just talk a little bit about what's going on there from a pricing and competitive perspective and whether or not the outlook is more favorable over time?

您能否從定價和競爭的角度談談目前的情況，以及隨著時間的推移前景是否會變得更加有利？

Or -- but it does seem to be -- if anything, it seems like that you're selling more of it.

或者——但看起來確實如此——如果有什麼不同的話，那就是你似乎賣得更多了。

So it seems like it's a lead product for you at the moment.

因此，它似乎是您目前的主導產品。

Well, Paul, thank you for recognizing how successful we've been in homeowners.

保羅，謝謝您認可我們在房主方面的成功。

I mean there are days when I feel like people think the only thing we sell is auto insurance, and I'm like we make a lot of money in homeowners insurance.

我的意思是，有時候我覺得人們認為我們唯一銷售的是汽車保險，而且我覺得我們在房屋保險上賺了很多錢。

We're really good at it.

我們真的很擅長。

It does require lower margins than auto insurance because you got to put up a lot more capital because of the volatility, and you don't get a lot of investment income.

它確實需要比汽車保險更低的利潤，因為由於波動性，你必須投入更多的資本，而且你不會獲得很多投資收入。

So we've been very good at it.

所以我們在這方面做得非常好。

Glenn, do you want to talk about how we're doing this year?

格倫，你想談談我們今年的表現嗎？

Yes, boy, do I. I appreciate that, Paul.

是的，孩子，是的。我很感激，保羅。

We feel really good about where we are in homeowners.

我們對自己在房主中的處境感到非常滿意。

So I'll give you a quick number on the last 5 years.

因此，我將簡要介紹過去 5 年的情況。

89 combined ratio, that's recorded combined ratio, not underlying.

89 綜合比率，這是記錄的綜合比率，不是基礎比率。

And we've made just over $4 billion in the past 5 years of underwriting profit.

過去 5 年我們的承保利潤剛超過 40 億美元。

So we're good at this.

所以我們很擅長這一點。

I don't mind being bold enough to say that we -- I think we have a sustained and systemic advantage in homeowners that we've proven over a long period of time, and it goes to the claims capabilities, the cat management capabilities, our reinsurance system that we have, our risk selection, our product capability and pricing.

我不介意大膽地說，我們——我認為我們在房主方面擁有持續的系統性優勢，我們已經在很長一段時間內證明了這一點，這涉及到索賠能力、貓管理能力，我們擁有的再保險系統、我們的風險選擇、我們的產品能力和定價。

So it's a pretty deep skill that's been honed over a long period of time that we're able to leverage.

因此，這是一項非常深入的技能，經過很長一段時間的磨練，我們能夠加以利用。

And so when you look at -- there's no question that inflation is hitting the homeowner side hard, and you got weather events.

因此，當你看到時，毫無疑問，通貨膨脹正在嚴重打擊房主一方，並且你會遇到天氣事件。

And you look at what it's doing to the industry more broadly than us, and there's going to be folks taking a lot of rate out there, and I think you've heard that from them.

你會比我們更廣泛地了解它對整個行業的影響，並且會有人在那裡收取很高的費用，我想你已經從他們那裡聽到了這一點。

And our product is such that, like, year-over-year, we're at 6% up on average premium, even though we took only 3.5 points of rate because built into it, there's some inflationary factor.

我們的產品是這樣的，與去年同期相比，我們的平均保費上漲了 6%，儘管我們只收取了 3.5 個百分點的費率，因為其中存在一些通貨膨脹因素。

So we're really well positioned to continue to make money at it, protect a lot of people.

因此，我們確實有能力繼續賺錢，保護很多人。

And last point is, it goes to what Tom talked about earlier about Transformative Growth.

最後一點是，這涉及到湯姆之前談到的變革性成長。

You look at the independent agent system.

你看看獨立代理制度。

And we bought National General in -- primarily to really have a ticket into that system where they have great systems, a lot of appointments, great relationships, and they're good at some products.

我們收購了 National General，主要是為了真正獲得進入該系統的門票，他們擁有出色的系統、大量的預約、良好的關係，而且他們擅長某些產品。

Well, we're really good at home.

嗯，我們在家裡過得真好。

You get that home product into the IA channel, and I think it's going to sell well.

你把那個家用產品進入 IA 頻道，我認為它會賣得很好。

We're going to protect a lot of people.

我們要保護很多人。

We're going to help IA's growth.

我們將幫助 IA 的發展。

Our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

I had a question just on frequency and I guess just a question, maybe you could clarify how that trended throughout the quarter by month and maybe just talk about what you're seeing today.

我有一個關於頻率的問題，我想這只是一個問題，也許你可以澄清一下整個季度的趨勢，也許只是談談你今天看到的情況。

And should we be thinking about frequency being more flat with 2019 combined with the 14% to 15% severity increase versus '19 that you guys called out in the 10-Q?

我們是否應該考慮與 2019 年相比，頻率更加平穩，與你們在 10-Q 中提到的 19 年相比，嚴重程度增加了 14% 到 15%？

Well, David, I'll get Glenn to answer the question on frequency.

好吧，大衛，我會讓格倫回答關於頻率的問題。

I'm not sure where the 14% to 15% came from.

我不知道14%到15%是從哪裡來的。

But -- so -- and how you're factoring -- what period of time your focus is.

但是——所以——以及你如何考慮——你的重點是什麼時間段。

Is that 2 years, is that 1 year?

是2年還是1年？

Because you can't take a 2-year trend and extrapolate it onto annual trends, but maybe that's what I heard.

因為你不能根據兩年的趨勢並將其推斷為年度趨勢，但也許這就是我所聽到的。

But Glenn, do you want to talk to us about frequency?

但是格倫，你想和我們談談頻率嗎？

Sure, yes.

當然，是的。

No, I would not -- the short answer would be, I would not say you should just expect a 0 frequency trend relative to 2019.

不，我不會——簡短的回答是，我不會說你應該只期望相對於 2019 年出現 0 頻率趨勢。

While we don't publish any forecasting on frequency, I think, broadly, people in the industry have talked about the fact that safer cars have tended to have a little bit of a tailwind for frequency.

雖然我們沒有發布任何關於頻率的預測，但我認為，從廣義上講，業內人士已經討論過這樣一個事實：更安全的汽車往往對頻率有一定的推動作用。

Even take away the pandemic for a moment that, year-over-year, we've had a long-term steady decline in frequency.

即使暫時不考慮大流行，我們的頻率也逐年穩定下降。

And so you've got a couple of years of that as you compare to 2019.

與 2019 年相比，這樣的情況已經持續好幾年了。

On top of that, we see -- and I alluded to this a little bit before, we see a really material change in the way people are driving.

最重要的是，我們看到——我之前提到過這一點，我們看到人們的駕駛方式發生了真正的實質變化。

So even when you see the aggregate number of miles driven coming back, still lower, but closer to 2019 levels, who is driving, when they're driving and how they're driving is changing materially.

因此，即使您看到總行駛里程數回升，仍然較低，但更接近 2019 年的水平，誰在開車、他們何時開車以及他們的駕駛方式正在發生重大變化。

So you see about a 4- or 5-point difference between the net change of urban driving being down more than rural driving.

因此，您會發現城市駕駛的淨變化比鄉村駕駛下降的幅度大約有 4 或 5 個百分點。

So you look at an Allstate book of business where we sell predominantly through exclusive agents, our exclusive agents are in more populated markets, that tends to favor the way the frequency comes through.

因此，您可以查看 Allstate 的業務手冊，其中我們主要透過獨家代理商進行銷售，我們的獨家代理商位於人口較多的市場，這往往有利於頻率的實現方式。

You look at the type of driving that's done.

您查看所完成的駕駛類型。

I mentioned before, commuting is down significantly more than noncommuting.

我之前提到過，通勤的下降幅度明顯大於非通勤的下降。

So a quick stat for you, as we look at a lot of these details, weekend driving is actually higher right now than 2019 was.

為您提供一個快速統計數據，當我們查看很多細節時，週末駕駛實際上比 2019 年要高。

People just want to get out.

人們只是想出去。

With day driving, it's materially lower.

在白天駕駛時，它會大大降低。

And so -- and particularly in rush hour.

所以——尤其是在尖峰時段。

So when you see less congested roads in the time period when the predominance of accidents happen in those morning and afternoon commutes, that is helpful to, particularly in our book of business, the way frequency comes through.

因此，當你看到在事故主要發生在早上和下午通勤的時間段內，道路不再那麼擁擠時，這對於減少交通事故的發生頻率很有幫助，特別是在我們的業務範圍內。

So there are elements that will come back.

所以有些元素會回來。

It will come back differently.

它會以不同的方式回來。

The only thing I'm confident in saying is that the world will look exactly the same after the pandemic than before, and that will mean that people drive and move differently.

我唯一有信心地說的是，疫情後的世界將與之前一模一樣，這意味著人們的駕駛和出行方式將有所不同。

But we see some nontransitory or temporary impacts to frequency as well as severity.

但我們看到了對頻率和嚴重程度的一些非暫時性或暫時性影響。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

And Tom, yes, yes, I was referring to just Page 63 of the 10-Q, which is, yes, that 14% to 15% is over 2 years.

湯姆，是的，是的，我指的是 10-Q 的第 63 頁，是的，14% 到 15% 超過了 2 年。

So you're right, it's about 7% on average per year.

所以你是對的，平均每年約 7%。

I guess just a follow-up just on the rate actions that you're thinking about taking.

我想這只是您考慮採取的利率行動的後續行動。

I just saw I think it was like a 5% rate increase that you filed in Georgia recently.

我剛剛看到，我認為這就像您最近在喬治亞州申請的 5% 的加息。

Maybe could you just talk about how widespread the rate increases are that you want to put in?

也許您可以談談您希望提高利率的範圍有多大？

And maybe just talk a bit more about how you think that might impact the growth trajectory going forward.

也許只是多談談您認為這可能會如何影響未來的成長軌跡。

Well, we don't -- we've got plans for the rest of the year as to where we think we need to increase price, but we don't give those out for competitive reasons, and we also need the regulators to agree.

好吧，我們沒有——我們已經制定了今年剩餘時間的計劃，以確定我們認為需要提高價格的地方，但出於競爭原因，我們不會提供這些計劃，而且我們還需要監管機構同意。

So I would just say that we think we will -- you should rely on the fact, David, that we know how to make money, and we're focused on making money.

所以我只想說，我們認為我們會——大衛，你應該相信這樣一個事實：我們知道如何賺錢，而且我們專注於賺錢。

As to the competitive position, I think it depends what other people do.

至於競爭地位，我認為這取決於其他人怎麼做。

So you heard yesterday, if you listened to the Progressive call, they're all-in on raising prices, cutting advertising, changing underwriting and stuff.

所以你昨天聽過，如果你聽過進步銀行的電話，他們會全力提高價格、削減廣告、改變承保等等。

So we think that gives us room to adapt and continue to grow and make money and make sure that we can recover costs as they go up.

因此，我們認為這給了我們適應、繼續成長和賺錢的空間，並確保我們能夠在成本上升時收回成本。

Other competitors are in different places, but we feel good about where we're at.

其他競爭對手位於不同的地方，但我們對自己所處的位置感覺良好。

Like Transformative Growth like, if you start off and said, "Would you want to have a pandemic and a huge drop in frequency for a year to do Transformative Growth," you probably would say, "I don't know.

就像變革性成長一樣，如果你一開始就說，「你希望在一年內發生一場大流行，並且頻率大幅下降來實現變革性成長嗎？」你可能會說，「我不知道。

Like it's a lot of volatility to manage through." On the other hand, I think in our particular case, it's worked well for us.

就像需要應對很大的波動性一樣。」另一方面，我認為在我們的特殊情況下，它對我們來說效果很好。

Got it.

知道了。

Is it your sense that the rest of the industry is going to start raising prices?

您是否感覺到產業內的其他公司將開始提高價格？

I think if you look at what they've done as your -- that we can really focus on, and there have been more rate increases this year, then I think, probably, people would have predicted if you asked them in the fourth quarter last year, and that would include us.

我認為，如果你看看他們所做的事情，我們可以真正關注，而且今年的利率上漲更多，那麼我想，如果你在第四季度問他們，人們可能會預測到去年，其中包括我們。

But if you just said, what do we think everybody was going to do this year, we wouldn't have thought they had to go up as much as they did.

但如果你只是說，我們認為今年每個人都會做什麼，我們就不會認為他們必須像他們那樣上漲。

But we also didn't think severity was going to be as high as it is.

但我們也不認為嚴重性會如此之高。

So we're increasing ours, and they're increasing theirs.

所以我們正在增加我們的，他們也在增加他們的。

But we think our relative advantage, given our sophistication and pricing, given our reduction in expenses, given what we're doing on a long-term basis to get expenses down even further puts us in good place.

但我們認為，考慮到我們的複雜性和定價、考慮到我們減少開支、考慮到我們為進一步降低開支而長期採取的行動，我們的相對優勢使我們處於有利地位。

So we don't see anything happening that tells us we can't still be on the path to grow market share, that the specific roads we go down might be a little different, but we're still feeling like that goal is still there or the objective is still achievable.

因此，我們沒有看到任何事情表明我們仍然無法走在增加市場份額的道路上，我們走的具體道路可能會有所不同，但我們仍然感覺這個目標仍然存在或目標仍然可以實現。

Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields from KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

I wanted to dig in a little bit to Allstate direct.

我想深入了解好事達直達。

I just want to understand the thought on the pricing strategy.

我只是想了解定價策略的想法。

And what I mean by that is, I think we've got demographic trends favoring direct distribution, but also 2 massive competitors.

我的意思是，我認為我們的人口趨勢有利於直接分銷，但也有兩個巨大的競爭對手。

And I wanted to know whether the competitive posture is that you have to be in line with where Progressive and GEICO are.

我想知道競爭態勢是否是必須與 Progressive 和 GEICO 保持一致。

Or can you benefit enough from these demographic trends to achieve your growth goals?

或者您能否從這些人口趨勢中受益匪淺，以實現您的成長目標？

I'm trying to sort through, Meyer.

我正在努力解決問題，邁耶。

I heard the first.

我聽到第一個。

Direct should be priced for what you get, like you should get what you pay for.

Direct 應該按照你得到的東西定價，就像你應該得到你付出的代價一樣。

So when you buy Allstate direct, it's, I think, going on average about 7% lower than if you buy from an agent because it doesn't come with help.

因此，我認為，當您直接購買 Allstate 時，價格平均比從代理商購買便宜約 7%，因為它不提供任何幫助。

Like -- and so that's -- you get what you pay for.

就像——所以這就是——一分錢一分貨。

And there are people -- there are some demographic shift to that.

有些人──人口結構發生了一些轉變。

But some of it's not -- there are some young people who want help and some older people who don't want to help.

但其中一些並非如此——有些年輕人需要幫助，而有些老年人則不想提供幫助。

And so we're there focused not as much on demographics of those channels but -- as the customer value.

因此，我們不太關注這些管道的人口統計數據，而是關注客戶價值。

As it relates to our competitive position in each channel, we believe you should have a competitive price position in each channel like-for-like.

由於它與我們在每個管道中的競爭地位有關，因此我們相信您在每個管道中都應該擁有同樣具有競爭力的價格地位。

So if you're buying from GEICO or Progressive and you're buying direct and you're buying from Allstate and you're buying direct, you should -- it should be the same kind of value.

因此，如果您從 GEICO 或 Progressive 購買並且直接購買，並且您從 Allstate 購買並且直接購買，那麼您應該 - 應該具有相同的價值。

Now it gets a little dicier when you figure out what price is because of what the limits are all kinds of -- it gets complicated fast.

現在，當你弄清楚價格是多少時，由於各種限制，它會變得有點棘手——它很快就會變得複雜。

But the conceptual approach would be, be competitive in channel based on the value you deliver to shareholders -- or to customers.

但概念方法是，根據您為股東或客戶提供的價值在通路中具有競爭力。

Glenn, how would you -- is there other things you would add to that?

格倫，你會怎麼樣──你還有其他要補充的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Going to the point about what do we get out of just the demographic shift versus being more competitive.

重點是我們可以從人口結構的轉變中得到什麼，而不是變得更有競爭力。

Clearly, it's a growing channel.

顯然，這是一個不斷成長的管道。

So if you are sitting in the boat and the current is taking you in a certain direction, so there's something to it, you really should be there, and that's why we're there.

因此，如果您坐在船上，並且水流將您帶向某個方向，那麼有一些東西，您確實應該在那裡，這就是我們在那裡的原因。

That's why Transformative Growth, why we want to be in all channels and where customers want to buy.

這就是為什麼要進行變革性成長，為什麼我們希望進入所有管道以及客戶想要購買的地方。

So I think there's some benefit to that.

所以我認為這樣做有一些好處。

But the bigger benefit is 2 other things.

但更大的好處是另外兩件事。

One would be being competitively priced.

其中之一就是價格具有競爭力。

That's why we're going after expenses, why we did the pricing differential that Tom talked about.

這就是為什麼我們要追求費用，為什麼我們要實行湯姆談到的定價差異。

And then the third one, which, frankly, maybe even the most important, is just your execution, and it's a fact that we have used the capabilities of the Esurance, but we're still newer at being a large national player with the brand we've got at Allstate doing this.

然後是第三個，坦白說，甚至可能是最重要的，就是你的執行力，事實上我們已經使用了 Esurance 的功能，但我們在成為該品牌的大型全國性參與者方面仍然較新。我們有好事達公司在做這件事。

It's building the capabilities, whether it's web, sales processes, marketing sophistication, integration of marketing into it so that we are winning our fair share there because you got to get the price to be competitive, but you also have to be great at the process itself.

它正在建立能力，無論是人脈、銷售流程、行銷複雜性、行銷整合，以便我們贏得公平的份額，因為你必須讓價格具有競爭力，但你也必須擅長這個過程本身。

So if you go back to that slide where we show the 3 different channels, direct is up.

因此，如果您返回我們展示 3 個不同頻道的幻燈片，您將看到直接播放。

As we said, it's now 29% of sales.

正如我們所說，現在它佔銷售額的 29%。

We expect it to continue to go up, as Glenn said, as we get better.

正如格倫所說，隨著我們變得更好，我們預計它會繼續上升。

There are some shifts to that channel if you just look globally.

如果你放眼全球，你會發現這個管道發生了一些轉變。

Some of that's because more people feel comfortable buying over the web and not going through some of that.

部分原因是越來越多的人願意透過網路購買而不需要經歷其中的一些過程。

Some of it is just because direct does a whole bunch of advertising, and it drives people to it.

其中一些只是因為 Direct 做了很多廣告，並且它驅使人們去做。

But we're, as Glenn pointed out, in that boat and increasing our capabilities.

但正如格倫指出的那樣，我們正處於這條船上並正在增強我們的能力。

But that doesn't mean we're waving the flag on people-to-people exchange.

但這並不意味著我們在人文交流上高舉旗幟。

And so the key part of Transformative Growth is there are people who want help.

因此，變革性成長的關鍵部分是有人需要幫助。

We just need to give it to them at a lower cost, and that's what we're working on.

我們只需要以更低的成本提供給他們，這就是我們正在努力的方向。

So people were more than happy to pay a lot of money to -- it sure is not a lot, but to be -- pay for the help to buy the insurance.

因此，人們非常樂意花很多錢——當然不是很多，但確實是——支付購買保險的幫助。

They just don't want to pay 10% for ongoing service when they can do self-service, if there's not much to be done or you can do it at a lower cost centrally.

他們只是不想在可以進行自助服務時支付 10% 的持續服務費用，如果沒有太多事情要做或你可以以較低的成本集中完成。

So that's our shift in transformative.

這就是我們的變革性轉變。

We're not waving the flag on person-to-person sales.

我們不會在個人對個人的銷售上揮舞旗幟。

In fact, we're leaning in and saying we have a great position there.

事實上，我們已經表明我們在這方面處於有利地位。

We have a great brand.

我們有一個偉大的品牌。

People know us.

人們認識我們。

We just need to do it more effectively and create higher-growth models.

我們只需要更有效地做到這一點並創建更高成長的模型。

So that will take us some time to transition, as we talked about.

因此，正如我們所說，這將需要一些時間來過渡。

Like I don't expect the Allstate agent business to jump up the way you'll see the direct business increase over the next 12 months.

就像我不認為 Allstate 代理業務會像未來 12 個月內直接業務成長那樣大幅成長。

But I do think it's got great long-term potential, and we're investing heavily in making sure those agents can deliver what people want if they want help buying products.

但我確實認為它具有巨大的長期潛力，我們正在大力投資，以確保這些代理商能夠提供人們想要的東西，如果他們需要幫助購買產品。

Okay.

好的。

That was very, very helpful.

這非常非常有幫助。

A quick follow-up, if I can.

如果可以的話，快速跟進。

Has the -- I guess, recent severity issues in both auto and home, have those changed the time line for rolling out the standard products on National General's platform?

我想，最近汽車和家庭領域的嚴重問題是否改變了在國家通用平台上推出標準產品的時間線？

Short answer would be no.

簡短的回答是否定的。

We think we can be really competitive in that market, and we're excited to get into the independent agent channel and do it as quickly as we can.

我們認為我們在該市場上具有真正的競爭力，我們很高興進入獨立代理商管道並儘快做到這一點。

We'll have some of our middle-market products this year on the NatGen platform, branded as National General, an Allstate company.

今年我們將在 NatGen 平台上推出一些中階市場產品，品牌為 National General，是一家 Allstate 公司。

So we'll get the benefit of the endorsed brand.

因此，我們將獲得認可品牌的好處。

And then over the next 2 years, we'll be rolling that out as quickly as we can.

然後在接下來的兩年裡，我們將盡快推出它。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Phillips, Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的邁克爾·菲利普斯。

In your introductory comments on severity, you talked about some other ways to counter it besides the targeted price increases.

在您對嚴重性的介紹性評論中，您談到了除了目標價格上漲之外的其他一些應對方法。

Could you expand upon how those -- maybe how those will help severity issues?

您能否詳細說明這些——也許這些將如何幫助解決嚴重的問題？

I didn't quite get all the list you were talking about.

我不太明白你所說的所有清單。

Maybe go through those in a little more detail and talk about how they can help you counter severity besides price.

也許更詳細地了解這些內容，並討論除了價格之外它們如何幫助您應對嚴重性。

Sure.

當然。

Thanks, Michael.

謝謝，麥可。

It really is about claims capabilities and paying what you owe and being fair to folks, but making sure you don't pay more than owe as things move.

這實際上是關於索賠能力和支付你所欠的費用以及對人們公平，但確保隨著事情的發展你支付的金額不會超過所欠的金額。

So we have inflationary factors, for example, say, on materials for homeowners.

因此，我們有通貨膨脹因素，例如房主材料的通貨膨脹因素。

Having purchasing power and having really good deals in place over the long term on flooring, on roofing and other products used in home repair helps hedge that inflation.

擁有購買力，並在地板、屋頂和其他用於家庭維修的產品上進行長期的真正優惠的交易，有助於對沖通貨膨脹。

And with our size, with our buying power and with the capabilities of our claims team, we've been able to do that, and it helps hedge it.

憑藉我們的規模、購買力和理賠團隊的能力，我們已經能夠做到這一點，並且有助於對沖。

Again, I'm not suggesting it eliminates the problem of inflation, but it does help mitigate it, so that not all of that cost is passed through to your customers because when I do the job to our customers, obviously, we got to put them back to where they were.

再說一次，我並不是說它消除了通貨膨脹問題，但它確實有助於緩解通貨膨脹問題，因此並非所有成本都會轉嫁到您的客戶身上，因為當我為客戶做這項工作時，顯然，我們必須把他們回到原來的地方。

We've got to charge people an appropriate price and give them the best value possible, and part of that is mitigating the cost of claims.

我們必須向人們收取適當的價格，並為他們提供盡可能最好的價值，其中一部分就是降低索賠成本。

So that was in the purchasing power.

這就是購買力。

The proprietary models I mentioned before is we've just invested a lot in our analytics and data capabilities over the years in order to flag claims that were at risk for accelerating costs, so that we could get it into the right experts' hands at the right time and it allows us to do a better quality job on those and also manage the costs.

我之前提到的專有模型是，多年來我們在分析和數據能力上投入了大量資金，以便標記有可能加速成本風險的索賠，以便我們能夠及時將其交到合適的專家手中。正確的時間，它使我們能夠更好地完成這些工作並管理成本。

Okay.

好的。

One other quick one, if I could then.

如果可以的話，再快一點。

A lot of talk on the direct-to-consumer channel for auto.

關於汽車直接面向消費者的管道有很多討論。

And clearly, that's a growth area.

顯然，這是一個成長領域。

What's your view on that channel longer term for the homeowners market?

您對該通路對房主市場的長期看法如何？

We think it's good.

我們認為這很好。

I mean I think people do want sometimes a little more help on their home because they care more about their home.

我的意思是，我認為人們有時確實希望在家裡得到更多幫助，因為他們更關心自己的家。

But we think that those people who are comfortable using advanced technology, bots, chat apps that you can get online now, should be able to buy more homeowners direct.

但我們認為，那些習慣使用先進技術、機器人、現在可以上網的聊天應用程式的人應該能夠直接購買更多的房主。

Thank you for taking time.

感謝您抽出時間。

Let me just close on a few things.

讓我結束幾件事。

First, on investment results, I totally understand the view that one would not fully count the huge increase in performance-based income.

第一，關於投資業績，我完全理解那種不完全統計業績收益大幅成長的觀點。

But when I read some of the reports, I'm like, I think it's fair to say it was an outsized quarter, but that doesn't mean that our long-term results should be dark.

但當我讀到一些報告時，我想，我認為可以公平地說這是一個過大的季度，但這並不意味著我們的長期業績應該是黑暗的。

We're good at investments.

我們擅長投資。

We've had good results.

我們已經取得了很好的成果。

Our acquisitions are performing well, whether that be Allstate Protection Plans, which we didn't really get questions on today.

我們的收購表現良好，無論是好事達保護計劃，我們今天並沒有真正受到質疑。

I just want to remind you, we bought that company 4 years ago, $1.4 billion.

我只是想提醒你，我們 4 年前以 14 億美元收購了那家公司。

It's now over $1 billion in revenue.

目前收入已超過 10 億美元。

It's growing at 27% a year.

它以每年 27% 的速度成長。

It made $155 million, which means we paid 9x earnings for a business that has grown 27%.

它賺了 1.55 億美元，這意味著我們為成長了 27% 的業務支付了 9 倍的收益。

And so we think it's worth a lot more than that.

所以我們認為它的價值遠不止於此。

National General, we also think we'll be highly successful.

全國將軍，我們也認為我們會取得巨大成功。

We're off to a really good start there.

我們在那裡有了一個非常好的開始。

You can see that in the current numbers.

您可以從當前的數字中看到這一點。

And it's not just the 4 million policies we have.

這不僅僅是我們擁有的 400 萬份保單。

By the way, when you look at the net cash we had to lay out after statutory capital, I do not believe we could have acquired 1% market share by putting a couple of billion dollars into advertising.

順便說一句，當你看到我們在法定資本之後必須支出的淨現金時，我不認為我們可以透過投入數十億美元進行廣告來獲得 1% 的市場份額。

So we think it was also just an economic growth opportunity straight up, forget the strategic potential of further growth.

因此，我們認為這也只是一個經濟成長機會，忘記了進一步成長的策略潛力。

And then share repurchases, we continue to really do well.

然後股票回購，我們繼續表現良好。

This is the biggest share repurchase program we've ever announced, both in dollars and percentage of market capitalization, not to be overlooked.

這是我們迄今為止宣布的最大規模的股票回購計劃，無論是從美元金額還是佔市值百分比來看，都不容忽視。

So thank you for participating today.

感謝您今天的參與。

We had great results this quarter.

本季我們取得了很好的成績。

We look forward to talking next quarter.

我們期待下個季度的討論。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。

This does conclude the program.

這確實結束了該程式。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。

Good day.

再會。