Allstate Corp (ALL) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Allstate's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, please be aware that this call is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加好事達 2021 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，請注意此通話正在錄音。

And now I would like to introduce your host for today's program, Mr. Mark Nogal, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想介紹一下今天節目的主持人，投資者關係主管馬克·諾加爾先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Jerome. Good morning. Welcome to Allstate's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. After prepared remarks, we will have a question-and-answer session.

謝謝你，傑羅姆。早安.歡迎參加 Allstate 2021 年第四季財報電話會議。準備好發言後，我們將進行問答環節。

Yesterday, following the close of the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement and posted related materials on our website at allstateinvestors.com. Our management team is here to provide perspective on these results.

昨天，收盤後，我們發布了新聞稿和投資者補充資料，並在我們的網站 allstateinvestors.com 上發布了相關資料。我們的管理團隊在此提供這些結果的看法。

As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will contain non-GAAP measures for which there are reconciliations in the news release and investor supplement and forward-looking statements about Allstate's operations. Allstate's results may differ materially from these statements, so please refer to our 10-K for 2020 and other public documents for information on potential risks.

正如簡報第一張投影片中所指出的，我們的討論將包含非公認會計原則措施，這些措施在新聞稿和投資者補充資料以及有關好事達營運的前瞻性聲明中進行了調節。 Allstate 的結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，因此請參閱我們的 2020 年 10-K 和其他公開文件，以了解有關潛在風險的資訊。

Before I hand it off to Tom, I would like to turn to Slide 2 and discuss the expansion of Allstate's investor communications. Beginning this year, instead of a traditional Investor Day, we will be conducting a series of 60-minute investor calls to provide deeper insights into significant strategic or operational topics. These calls will be in addition to our quarterly earnings calls.

在交給 Tom 之前，我想轉向投影片 2，討論好事達投資者溝通的擴展。從今年開始，我們將舉行一系列 60 分鐘的投資者電話會議，而不是傳統的投資者日，以提供對重要策略或營運主題的更深入見解。這些電話會議將是我們季度財報電話會議的補充。

Our first call will focus on the current auto insurance operating environment and will be scheduled to take place in March. Topics on future calls may include homeowners insurance, independent agent channel strategy, expansion of protection services and investments. In addition to investor calls, we will also begin disclosing the company's auto insurance implemented rate actions from the prior month on our Investor Relations website to provide additional information on premium growth. Rate disclosures will be posted on the third Thursday of every month, like our monthly catastrophe loss disclosures, though the rate postings will occur regardless of whether there is a catastrophe loss release in the month. I look forward to the additional engagement these changes will bring.

我們的第一次電話會議將重點討論當前的汽車保險營運環境，並將於三月舉行。未來電話會議的主題可能包括房屋保險、獨立代理商管道策略、保障服務和投資的擴展。除了投資者電話會議之外，我們還將開始在投資者關係網站上揭露該公司汽車保險上個月實施的費率行動，以提供有關保費成長的更多資訊。費率揭露將在每個月的第三個星期四發布，就像我們的每月巨災損失揭露一樣，儘管無論該月是否有巨災損失發布，費率發布都會發生。我期待這些改變將帶來更多的參與。

And now I'll turn it over to Tom.

現在我將把它交給湯姆。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Let's start on Slide 3. As you know, Allstate, we focus on execution and innovation as ways to create shareholder value. And our strategy has 2 components: increase personal Property-Liability market share and then expand protection solutions, which are shown on the 2 ovals on the left.

早安，感謝您今天加入我們。讓我們從投影片 3 開始。如您所知，Allstate，我們專注於執行和創新，作為創造股東價值的方式。我們的策略有兩個組成部分：增加個人財產責任市場份額，然後擴大保護解決方案，如左側的兩個橢圓所示。

If you start with the upper oval, we've been a leader in product innovation, on multichannel distribution and leveraging technology in telematics and claims settlement. So we're now building a low-cost digital insurer with broad distribution through transformative growth. We're also diversifying our businesses by expanding protection options, as are shown in the bottom oval. We offer customers a wide range of protection, good workplace benefits, commercial insurance, roadside services, car warranties, protection plans and identity protection.

如果您從上面的橢圓形開始，我們一直是產品創新、多通路分銷以及利用遠端資訊處理和理賠技術的領導者。因此，我們現在正在透過變革性成長打造一家具有廣泛分銷能力的低成本數位保險公司。我們還透過擴大保護選項來實現業務多元化，如底部橢圓形所示。我們為客戶提供廣泛的保護、良好的工作福利、商業保險、路邊服務、汽車保固、保護計劃和身分保護。

Avail is a leading innovator in telematics, and Avail -- sorry, Arity is leading in telematics, and Avail is a start-up, which is basically an Airbnb model comparison. We leverage the Allstate brand, customer base and capabilities to drive growth in those businesses as well.

Avail 是遠端資訊處理領域的領先創新者，而 Avail——抱歉，Arity 在遠端資訊處理領域處於領先地位，而 Avail 是一家新創公司，這基本上是 Airbnb 模式的比較。我們也利用好事達品牌、客戶群和能力來推動這些業務的成長。

On the right panel, you can see our 5 annual operating priorities, which focus on both near-term performance and long-term value creation. So let's move to Slide 4 and go through those operating priorities for the fourth quarter and the full year. Our revenues of $13 billion in the quarter increased 18.7% compared to the prior year quarter, resulting in over $50 billion of revenue for the full year 2021, then reflected by a 1 percentage point increase in auto insurance market share through the National General acquisition, growth in homeowners premiums, and then we also had strong growth at Allstate Protection Plans and higher investment income. Property-Liability premiums increased 17%.

在右側面板上，您可以看到我們的 5 個年度營運重點，重點是近期績效和長期價值創造。那麼，讓我們轉到投影片 4，回顧一下第四季和全年的營運重點。我們本季的營收為 130 億美元，比去年同期成長 18.7%，從而導致 2021 年全年收入超過 500 億美元，透過收購 National General，汽車保險市場份額增加了 1 個百分點，房主保費增長，好事達保障計畫也強勁成長，投資收入也更高。財產責任保費增加了 17%。

Net investment income of $847 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased to $187 million compared to 2020, which reflects really strong results from the performance-based portfolio. Net income was $790 million in the quarter compared to $2.6 billion in the prior year, as lower underwriting income and a loss related to the sale of the life and annuities business was only partially offset by the higher investment income.

與 2020 年相比，2021 年第四季的淨投資收入為 8.47 億美元，增加至 1.87 億美元，這反映了基於​​績效的投資組合的強勁業績。本季淨利潤為 7.9 億美元，而上年同期為 26 億美元，原因是承保收入的下降以及與出售人壽和年金業務相關的損失僅被投資收入的增加部分抵消。

Adjusted net income, remember that's our measure takes out some of the things that we think are not related to the current economics, was $796 million or $2.75 per diluted share, a decline compared to the $1.6 billion generated in the prior year quarter, reflecting lower underwriting income. You'll remember that 2020 had low auto accident frequency, reflecting the impact of the pandemic.

請記住，這是我們的衡量標準，剔除了一些我們認為與當前經濟狀況無關的因素，調整後淨利潤為7.96 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益2.75 美元，較去年同期的16 億美元有所下降，反映了淨利潤的下降承保收入。您會記得，2020 年的車禍頻率較低，反映了疫情的影響。

2021 was a year of -- really a 2 distinct halves as it relates to profitability of auto insurance. In the first half of 2021, auto insurance underwriting income benefited as lower accident frequency offset increased claims severity. As a result, underwriting income for auto insurance totaled over $1.7 billion in the first 2 quarters. In the second half of the year, auto claim frequency continued to increase towards prepandemic levels and the cost of repairing cars and settling bodily injury claims accelerated.

2021 年實際上是兩個截然不同的一年，因為它與汽車保險的獲利能力有關。 2021年上半年，因事故頻率降低導致理賠嚴重程度增加，車險承保收入受惠。前兩季車險承保收入總計超過17億美元。下半年，汽車索賠頻率持續增加，接近疫情前的水平，修理汽車和解決人身傷害索賠的成本加速上升。

We began increasing auto insurance rates in the third quarter, and this accelerated in the fourth quarter. These rate increases, however, are earned as policies renew so that the cost increase has resulted in an underwriting loss of slightly over $450 million in the last 2 quarters. The underlying combined ratio for auto insurance was 92.5% for the full year and 100.2% for the fourth quarter of 2021.

我們從第三季開始提高汽車保險費率，並在第四季加速。然而，這些費率上調是隨著保單更新而增加的，因此成本增加導致過去兩個季度的承保損失略高於 4.5 億美元。車險基礎綜合成本率全年為92.5%，2021年第四季為100.2%。

And while that generates good underwriting income for the year and a good economic return, the results of the last 2 quarters are not acceptable, so we're highly focused on raising returns in the auto insurance, as Glenn will discuss in a few minutes.

雖然這會產生良好的年度承保收入和良好的經濟回報，但過去兩個季度的結果並不可接受，因此我們高度關注提高汽車保險的回報，正如格倫將在幾分鐘內討論的那樣。

Adjusted net income of $4 billion for the full year was $13.48 per share, which generated a return on common shareholders' equity of 16.9%.

全年調整後淨利為 40 億美元，每股收益為 13.48 美元，普通股股東權益報酬率為 16.9%。

Let's go to Slide 5 to go through the operating priority results in more detail. To better serve customers, we lowered expenses to improve the competitive price position of auto insurance. The enterprise Net Promoter Score finished slightly below the prior year, but in part, that reflects the absence of the beneficial impact in 2020 of the pandemic-related customer accommodations. You'll remember, it included $1 billion of Shelter-in-Place program payments, expanded coverage, and longer payment terms.

讓我們轉到投影片 5，更詳細地了解操作優先級結果。為了更好地服務客戶，我們降低費用，提高車險價格競爭力。企業淨推薦值略低於上一年，但這在一定程度上反映了 2020 年與大流行相關的客戶住宿並沒有產生有益影響。您會記得，它包括 10 億美元的就地避難計劃付款、擴大的覆蓋範圍和更長的付款期限。

This year, we expanded protection offerings in group and health individual products with the acquisition of National General. We significantly grew our customer base in 2021, with total policies in force increasing 9.8% to $190.9 million. Property-Liability policies, of course, increased by 13.7% and due to the acquisition of National General, expansion of our direct distribution in the Allstate brand and increased (inaudible) insurance provided through Allstate agents. Protection Services policies also continued to grow, increasing 8.9% to $148.4 million.

今年，我們透過收購 National General 擴大了團體和個人健康產品的保護產品範圍。 2021 年，我們的客戶群大幅成長，有效保單總額增加了 9.8%，達到 1.909 億美元。當然，財產責任保單增加了 13.7%，這是由於收購了 National General、擴大了我們在 Allstate 品牌中的直接分銷以及透過 Allstate 代理商提供的（聽不清楚）保險的增加。保護服務保單也持續成長，成長 8.9% 至 1.484 億美元。

On the third priority, achieve target returns on capital, that was accomplished. We completed the year with adjusted net income of $4 billion and a return on shareholders' equity of 16.9%. Despite the rising loss costs environment, the Property-Liability combined ratio finished 2021 at 95.9%. Protection Services continues to grow profitably. It's really driven by Allstate Protection Plans. The net investment income was $3.3 billion in 2021, reflecting proactive portfolio management and exceptional performance-based income. Mario will take you through that later as well. The total return on that portfolio was 4.4%. So sustainable value creation refers not only strong execution on the first 4 items, but long-term growth platform.

第三個優先事項，實現資本報酬率目標，已經完成了。全年調整後淨利為 40 億美元，股東權益報酬率為 16.9%。儘管損失成本不斷上升，2021 年財產負債綜合比率仍達 95.9%。保護服務持續獲利成長。它實際上是由好事達保護計劃推動的。 2021 年淨投資收入為 33 億美元，反映出積極的投資組合管理和卓越的基於績效的收入。馬裡奧稍後也會帶你經歷這一點。該投資組合的總回報率為 4.4%。因此，永續的價值創造不僅指前四項的強大執行，也指長期的成長平台。

In 2021, we sold the life and annuities business for $4.4 billion. We acquired National General for $4 billion to capture expense savings, leverage an independent agent technology platform and improve our strategic position in this distribution channel. Significant progress was made on transformative growth to build a low-cost digital insurer with broad distribution.

2021 年，我們以 44 億美元的價格出售了人壽和年金業務。我們以 40 億美元收購了 National General，以節省開支、利用獨立代理技術平台並提高我們在該分銷管道中的戰略地位。在轉型成長方面取得了重大進展，打造了一家低成本、分佈廣泛的數位保險公司。

Allstate Protection Plans continued its rapid growth with written premiums of $1.8 billion. That is 5x greater than when the company was acquired 5 years ago. Arity, our telematics company, continues to expand its services and launch highly innovative products. Execution and innovation lead to sustainable value creation.

Allstate Protection Plans 持續快速成長，承保保費達到 18 億美元。這比 5 年前收購該公司時增加了 5 倍。我們的遠端資訊處理公司 Arity 不斷擴大其服務並推出高度創新的產品。執行和創新帶來可持續的價值創造。

Now let me turn it over to Glenn to discuss Property-Liability results in more detail.

現在讓我把它交給格倫，更詳細地討論財產負債結果。

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. Let's start by reviewing Property-Liability profitability in the fourth quarter on Slide 6. The recorded combined ratio of 98.9 increased 14.9 points compared to the prior year quarter, primarily driven by higher underwriting losses as well as prior year reserve strengthening. The chart on the bottom left takes you through the impact of each component compared to the prior year quarter.

謝謝你，湯姆，大家早安。讓我們先回顧幻燈片6 上第四季的財產負債獲利能力。記錄的綜合成本率為98.9，與去年同期相比增加了14.9 個百分點，這主要是由於承保損失增加以及去年準備金加強所致。左下角的圖表將帶您了解每個組成部分與去年同期相比的影響。

Auto insurance underwriting loss ratio drove most of the increase, driven by the impact of rising inflation on auto severity and higher auto accident frequency compared to the prior year. Prior year reserve restrengthening -- strengthening of $182 million had a 1.8 point impact on the combined ratio in the quarter, primarily due to adverse loss development in auto insurance casualty coverage. There was also a sizable impact relative to the premium in shared economy business, which was primarily driven in states we no longer insure with transportation network carriers. This was partially offset by lower underwriting expense ratio, mostly due to lower advertising expenses in the quarter.

由於通膨上升對汽車嚴重程度的影響以及與前一年相比更高的汽車事故頻率，汽車保險承保損失率推動了大部分成長。去年準備金重新加強——增加了 1.82 億美元，對本季度的綜合成本率產生了 1.8 個百分點的影響，這主要是由於汽車保險傷亡險損失的不利發展。共享經濟業務的保費也受到了相當大的影響，這主要是在我們不再向運輸網路營運商提供保險的州推動的。這被承保費用率下降部分抵消，主要是由於本季廣告費用下降。

We continue to focus on cost reductions which improve our operational flexibility and competitive position. The chart on the lower right shows Allstate's adjusted expense ratio over the last few years. And the adjusted expense ratio is a measure we're using to track our progress on improving value for customers through cost reductions. The measure starts with our underwriting expense ratio, excludes restructuring, coronavirus-related expenses, amortization and impairment of purchase intangibles, and investment in advertising. It then adds our claim expense ratio, excluding catastrophe claims costs.

我們繼續專注於降低成本，從而提高我們的營運靈活性和競爭地位。右下角的圖表顯示了好事達過去幾年調整後的費用比率。調整後的費用比率是我們用來追蹤我們透過降低成本為客戶提高價值的進度的衡量標準。該指標從我們的承保費用率開始，不包括重組、與冠狀病毒相關的費用、購買無形資產的攤銷和減值以及廣告投資。然後加入我們的索賠費用比率，不包括災難索賠費用。

The adjusted expense ratio improved to 26 in the full year 2021, which is 0.6 points better than prior year and 3.2 lower than 2018. Our long-term objective is a further reduction of 3 points over the next 3 years, which would represent a 6-point reduction over the 6 years following 2018, allowing us to improve competitive price position while maintaining attractive returns.

2021 年全年調整後費用率改善至 26，比前一年提高 0.6 個百分點，比 2018 年下降 3.2 個百分點。我們的長期目標是在未來 3 年內進一步降低 3 個百分點，即 6 2018 年之後的6年內降分，使我們能夠提高具有競爭力的價格地位，同時保持有吸引力的回報。

Slide 7 provides further insight into the drivers of rising auto insurance loss costs. Allstate Protection auto insurance underlying combined ratio was 100.2 in the fourth quarter and 92.5 through the full year 2021, representing increases of 15.3 and 7.4 points, respectively. The increases reflect higher loss costs due to severity and accident frequency, partially offset by lower expenses.

投影片 7 進一步深入了解了汽車保險損失成本上升的驅動因素。 Allstate Protection 車險基礎綜合成本率第四季為 100.2，2021 年全年為 92.5，分別成長 15.3 和 7.4 個百分點。這些增長反映了由於嚴重性和事故頻率導致的損失成本增加，但部分被較低的費用所抵消。

While claim frequency increased relative to prior year, reflecting a return to a more normal driving environment, we continue to see favorability compared to prepandemic levels.

雖然索賠頻率相對於前一年有所增加，反映出恢復了更正常的駕駛環境，但與疫情前的水平相比，我們仍然看到了有利的情況。

Allstate brand auto property damage frequency was up 21.5% in the fourth quarter of '21 compared to 2020, but it was down 13.3% compared to 2019. While we've seen miles driven approach prepandemic levels, we've seen a meaningful change in time of day driving, which continues to impact both frequency and severity. Increases in auto severity reflect inflationary pressure across coverages, with a number of underlying components of severity rising faster than core inflation.

與2020 年相比，好事達品牌汽車財產損失頻率在21 年第四季上升了21.5%，但與2019 年相比下降了13.3%。雖然我們看到行駛里程接近疫情前的水平，但我們看到了有意義的變化一天中的駕駛時間，這繼續影響頻率和嚴重程度。汽車嚴重程度的增加反映了整個保險範圍的通膨壓力，嚴重程度的許多基本組成部分的上升速度快於核心通膨。

Chart on the lower left shows used car values began increasing in late 2020 and accelerated in mid-2021 in -- a total increase of 68% beginning in 2019. OEM parts and labor rates have also accelerated in 2021, resulting in higher severities in coverages like collision and property damage.

左下角的圖表顯示，二手車價值於2020 年末開始增長，並於2021 年中期加速增長——從2019 年開始，總計增長了68%。OEM 零件和人工費率在 2021 年也加速增長，導致覆蓋範圍更加嚴重例如碰撞和財產損失。

The impact of inflation is also influencing our casualty coverage. During 2020, at the onset of the pandemic, when there was less road congestion and higher speeds, a higher proportion of accidents were more severe. That resulted in more severe injuries per claim and higher average casualty severity. And as 2021 developed, casualty costs continued to rise with more severe injuries, medical inflation and higher medical consumption and higher attorney representation rates.

通貨膨脹的影響也影響著我們的傷亡保險。 2020年，疫情剛開始時，道路壅塞較少，車速較高，事故比例較高，嚴重程度較高。這導致每次索賠的傷害更加嚴重，平均傷亡嚴重程度也更高。隨著 2021 年的發展，傷亡費用持續上升，傷害更加嚴重、醫療通膨、醫療消費增加以及律師代表率上升。

The chart on the lower right breaks down auto report year losses, excluding catastrophe, over the past 2 years. The impact of frequency was favorable in 2020, compared to 2019, with the pandemic. And as you shift into 2021, that favorability is partially reversed, creating a negative year-over-year frequency impact, but still favorable over 2 years. The impact from higher severities, on the other hand, were compounded over the 2-year period and put pressure on both physical damage and casualty coverages. The combination of these factors led to the auto insurance margin pressure that we've seen in the second half of 2021.

右下圖詳細列出了過去兩年的汽車報告年度損失（不包括災難）。與 2019 年相比，受疫情影響，2020 年頻率的影響是有利的。當進入 2021 年時，這種好感度會部分逆轉，造成同比頻率的負面影響，但在 2 年內仍然有利。另一方面，更嚴重的影響在兩年期間變得更加複雜，給物理損失和傷亡保險帶來了壓力。這些因素的結合導致了我們在 2021 年下半年看到的車險利潤率壓力。

So let's move to Slide 8 and go deeper into the steps we're taking to improve auto profitability. Allstate has, as you all know, have generated strong auto insurance margins over a long period of time. This is a core capability of ours, and we are taking a comprehensive and prescriptive approach to respond to the inflationary pressure and return to our auto margin targets in the mid-90s combined ratio.

那麼，讓我們轉到投影片 8，深入探討我們為提高汽車獲利能力所採取的步驟。眾所周知，好事達在很長一段時間內創造了強勁的汽車保險利潤。這是我們的核心能力，我們正在採取全面、規範的方法來應對通膨壓力，並回到90年代中期的汽車利潤率目標。

There are 3 areas of focus: reducing expenses, which we've talked about, raising rates and managing loss costs through claim effectiveness. Since we already talked about the expenses, I'll start with the rates. And the chart on the lower left, it provides a view into 2021 rate actions. We implemented rate decreases in early 2021 to reflect, in part, Allstate's lower expense ratio and the reduced frequency we were experiencing from the pandemic. But as the year progressed and inflation escalated, we responded with rate increases that began in the third quarter and continued into the fourth quarter.

有 3 個重點領域：我們已經討論過減少費用、提高費率以及透過索賠有效性管理損失成本。既然我們已經討論過費用，我將從費率開始。左下角的圖表提供了 2021 年利率行動的視野。我們在 2021 年初實施了費率下調，部分原因是好事達較低的費用率以及我們因疫情而減少的頻率。但隨著時間的推移和通貨膨脹的升級，我們從第三季開始並持續到第四季升息。

As those continued, you see in the fourth quarter, we took rate in 25 locations at an average increase of 7.1% and a weighted Allstate brand auto premium impact of 2.9%. We'll continue to take rate increases to restore auto profitability's targeted levels, and we'll keep you posted monthly, as Mark mentioned earlier, so that you know where we are on the rates.

隨著這些的繼續，您會在第四季度看到，我們在 25 個地點進行了費率平均增長 7.1% 的加權 Allstate 品牌汽車保費影響為 2.9%。我們將繼續提高利率，以恢復汽車盈利能力的目標水平，並且正如馬克之前提到的，我們將每月向您通報情況，以便您知道我們的利率水平。

The chart on the right shows the estimated annual impact of the premium from the implemented rate in each quarter. To relate these 2 views together, that large 2.9% increase implemented in the fourth quarter that you see on the left table relates directly to the rightmost bar of $702 million in estimated annual written premium. While the rate will obviously help our margin, it takes a little time to be realized. As Tom mentioned, there's an inherent lag between when rates are implemented and when they're reflected in written premium and then ultimately in earned premium. As auto insurance policies generally have a 6-month term, it takes that time for all of the policies to have renewed at the new rate. And then the annualized written premium impact is fully reflected after 10 -- after 12 months.

右圖顯示了每季實施費率對保費的估計年度影響。將這兩種觀點聯繫起來，您在左表中看到的第四季度實現的 2.9% 的大幅增長與最右邊的預計年度承保保費 7.02 億美元直接相關。雖然該利率顯然有助於我們的利潤，但需要一點時間才能實現。正如湯姆所提到的，費率的實施和反映在承保保費以及最終賺取的保費之間存在固有的滯後。由於汽車保險保單的期限一般為 6 個月，因此所有保單都需要一段時間才能以新費率續保。然後，年化保費影響將在 10 個月後（12 個月後）充分體現。

As we take more price increases in 2022, the incremental rate will be combined and drive higher levels of written premium first and then average earned premium second, as the year progresses and we favorably impact auto margins. Beyond expense reductions and rate increases, we're also leveraging advanced claim capabilities to mitigate loss cost pressure for our customers. We're broadening strategic partnerships with part suppliers and repair facilities to mitigate repair costs. We're using advanced claim analytics and predictive modeling tools to optimize repair versus total loss decisions and to assess the likelihood for injury and attorney representation on casualty claims.

隨著我們在2022 年採取更多的價格上漲，增量率將被合併起來，首先推動更高水平的承保保費，然後是平均賺取保費，隨著時間的推移，我們會對汽車利潤率產生有利的影響。除了降低費用和提高費率之外，我們還利用先進的索賠功能來減輕客戶的損失成本壓力。我們正在擴大與零件供應商和維修機構的策略合作夥伴關係，以降低維修成本。我們正在使用先進的索賠分析和預測建模工具來優化修復與全損決策，並評估受傷的可能性和傷亡索賠的律師代理。

The bottom line is we are highly confident in our ability to restore auto profitability to targeted levels. And while auto results tend to dominate discussions around the personal lines industry, it's really important to recognize the broad product suite we offer, as Tom mentioned earlier, and in particular, our homeowners insurance product.

最重要的是，我們對將汽車獲利能力恢復到目標水準的能力充滿信心。雖然汽車結果往往主導個人保險業的討論，但正如湯姆之前提到的，認識到我們提供的廣泛產品套件非常重要，特別是我們的房屋保險產品。

So moving to Slide 9. I want to spend a few minutes on our industry-leading homeowners business. A majority of our customers bundle home and auto insurance, which improves retention and overall economics of both lines. And simply put, we have a differentiated homeowners ecosystem, including product, underwriting, reinsurance, claims capabilities that are unique in the industry.

現在轉到投影片 9。我想花幾分鐘時間介紹一下我們領先業界的房主業務。我們的大多數客戶都捆綁了房屋保險和汽車保險，這提高了兩條產品線的保留率和整體經濟效益。簡而言之，我們擁有差異化的房主生態系統，包括業界獨一無二的產品、承保、再保險、理賠能力。

As a proof point to that, since 2017, we've earned $3.3 billion or an average of $667 million a year in underwriting income, while the industry has generated close to an $18 billion underwriting loss from 2017 to 2020. The graph at the bottom left shows homeowners insurance combined ratios for Allstate select competitors and the industry overall since 2011. And you can see there that Allstate's consistently outperformed. We're well positioned to maintain our margins in homeowners and to continue growing it.

證明這一點的是，自 2017 年以來，我們的承保收入為 33 億美元，平均每年為 6.67 億美元，而從 2017 年到 2020 年，該行業產生了近 180 億美元的承保損失。底部圖表左圖顯示了自2011 年以來Allstate 精選競爭對手和整個行業的房屋保險綜合比率。您可以看到Allstate 的表現始終優於大盤。我們處於有利位置，可以維持房主利潤並繼續成長。

Our House & Home product is designed to address severe weather risks and has sophisticated pricing features and inflation factors that respond to changes in replacement values, which is particularly important during an inflationary environment like the one we're in.

我們的家居產品旨在應對惡劣天氣風險，並具有複雜的定價功能和通貨膨脹因素，可響應重置價值的變化，這在我們所處的通貨膨脹環境中尤其重要。

The chart on the lower right shows Allstate homeowners net written premium over time as well as policies in force. We've grown policies in force steadily, increasing to 1.5% up at year-end, and our Allstate agents are in a great position to continue to broaden customer relationships with homeowners products.

右下角的圖表顯示了好事達房主隨時間推移的淨承保保費以及有效保單。我們的政策穩步增長，到年底增長了 1.5%，我們的 Allstate 代理商處於有利位置，可以繼續擴大與房主產品的客戶關係。

Net written premium has really taken off through 2021, reaching 13.8% variance by the fourth quarter. Now the increasing spread between those 2 lines, the net written premium and the policies in force, is due to an increased average in premium per policy, which has steadily grown through 2021. That is mostly due to the premium rising with the increases we saw in replacement costs and, to a lesser extent, rate increases. That view, that difference that I just illustrated, really helps show how our product reacts quickly to inflationary forces and allows us to better match price and risk.

到 2021 年，淨承保保費確實開始起飛，到第四季差異達到 13.8%。現在，這兩條線（淨承保保費和有效保單）之間的差距不斷擴大，是由於每份保單的平均保費增加，該保費在2021 年之前一直穩步增長。這主要是由於保費隨著我們看到的增加而增加重置成本，並且在較小程度上增加了費率。這種觀點，即我剛才闡述的這種差異，確實有助於展示我們的產品如何對通膨力量做出快速反應，並使我們能夠更好地匹配價格和風險。

On the claims side, we've made investments in technology with photo, video and aerial imagery for timely and accurate loss cost management.

在索賠方面，我們對照片、影片和航空圖像技術進行了投資，以實現及時、準確的損失成本管理。

Shifting to National General's homeowners book. It provides us an awesome opportunity to grow in the independent agent channel, and we're really optimistic about the ability to bundle there with independent agents when we're deploying new middle-market products on the National General ecosystem. But in the near term, we're focused on improving their profitability in homeowners by leveraging Allstate's expertise in data, pricing sophistication and underwriting capabilities.

轉向國民將軍的房主書。它為我們提供了在獨立代理商通路中發展的絕佳機會，當我們在全國通用生態系統上部署新的中間市場產品時，我們對與獨立代理商捆綁銷售的能力非常樂觀。但在短期內，我們的重點是利用好事達在數據、定價複雜性和承保能力方面的專業知識來提高房主的獲利能力。

Our ultimate goal is to meet customers' protection needs while optimizing shareholder risk and return. We underwrite risk directly in homeowners where we can achieve targeted returns. We also broker other insurers' property policies where we can meet protection needs for customers but we can't achieve the adequate returns that we require, and this allows us to maintain an auto relationship with them. We also shift a lot of our catastrophe risk to reinsurance markets, including traditional reinsurance and alternative capital covering both individual large events and an annual aggregate cover.

我們的最終目標是滿足客戶的保護需求，同時優化股東風險和回報。我們直接為房主承保風險，從而實現目標回報。我們也代理其他保險公司的財產保單，我們可以滿足客戶的保障需求，但無法實現我們所需的足夠回報，這使我們能夠與他們保持汽車關係。我們也將許多巨災風險轉移到再保險市場，包括傳統的再保險和替代資本，涵蓋單一大型事件和年度總計保險。

All in, as I said at the start of this, we have a differentiated homeowners insurance capability in the market, and it operates as a really strong diversifying book of business while we improve auto margins.

總而言之，正如我在開頭所說，我們在市場上擁有差異化的房屋保險能力，並且在我們提高汽車利潤率的同時，它作為一個真正強大的多元化業務簿運作。

So with that, let me turn it over to Mario to cover the remainder of our results before we move to questions.

因此，在我們開始提問之前，讓我將其交給馬裡奧來介紹我們剩餘的結果。

Thanks, Glenn. Let's move to Slide 10 and discuss how transformative growth positions us for long-term success. So as we've discussed on past calls, transformative growth is a multiyear initiative to increase personal Property-Liability market share by building a low-cost digital insurer with broad distribution. This will be accomplished by delivering on 4 key objectives: improving customer value, expanding customer access, increasing both the sophistication and investment in customer acquisition, and deploying a new technology ecosystem. We made significant progress across each objective in 2021.

謝謝，格倫。讓我們轉到投影片 10，討論變革性成長如何幫助我們長期成功。因此，正如我們在過去的電話會議中討論的那樣，變革性成長是一項多年計劃，旨在透過建立一家具有廣泛分佈的低成本數位保險公司來增加個人財產責任市場份額。這將透過實現 4 個關鍵目標來實現：提高客戶價值、擴大客戶存取範圍、提高客戶獲取的複雜性和投資，以及部署新技術生態系統。 2021 年，我們在每個目標上都取得了重大進展。

Our commitment to further lower our costs improves customer value and enables a more competitive price position while maintaining attractive returns. By leveraging our industry-leading telematics offering as well as advanced data and analytics, we are able to redesign products to create competitively differentiated offerings for our customers. We have transformed our Allstate agent model to increase growth and decrease distribution costs. We've improved the strength of our direct channel through lower pricing and enhanced capabilities, and the acquisition of National General further improved our strategic position in the independent agent channel.

我們致力於進一步降低成本，提高客戶價值，實現更具競爭力的價格地位，同時保持有吸引力的回報。透過利用我們領先業界的遠端資訊處理產品以及先進的數據和分析，我們能夠重新設計產品，為客戶創造具有競爭優勢的差異化產品。我們改變了好事達代理模式，以促進成長並降低分銷成本。我們透過降低價格和增強能力提高了直銷通路的實力，收購National General進一步提高了我們在獨立代理通路的策略地位。

Customer acquisition costs relative to lifetime value have improved with higher close rates and increased use of analytics to improve marketing effectiveness. As a result, we invested more in marketing in 2021. We also made progress on deploying the technology necessary to achieve transformative growth. New customer and product management ecosystems will improve ease of use and self-service capabilities at lower costs. We are using both purchased and proprietary software, which is currently in dark deployment before it is operationally tested this year. Delivering on each objective in an integrated way enables us to increase market share and create additional shareholder value.

隨著成交率的提高以及更多地使用分析來提高行銷效果，相對於生命週期價值的客戶獲取成本有所改善。因此，我們在 2021 年加大了行銷投入。我們在部署實現轉型成長所需的技術方面也取得了進展。新的客戶和產品管理生態系統將以更低的成本提高易用性和自助服務能力。我們正在使用購買的和專有的軟體，該軟體目前處於暗部署狀態，然後今年才會進行操作測試。以綜合方式實現每個目標使我們能夠增加市場份額並創造額外的股東價值。

Turning to Slide 11. Let's look how transformative growth has already begun to successfully drive results in our Property-Liability business. In the chart on the left, you will see Property-Liability policies in force grew by 13.7% compared to the prior year quarter, driven predominantly by the National General acquisition. National General, which includes Encompass, contributed growth of 4.2 million policies and Allstate brand property-liability policies increased 374,000, reflecting enhanced direct channel capabilities and growth in homeowners sold through Allstate agents.

轉向投影片 11。讓我們看看變革性成長如何已經開始成功推動我們的財產負債業務取得成果。在左圖中，您將看到有效的財產責任保單與去年同期相比增加了 13.7%，這主要是由 National General 收購所推動的。包括 Encompass 在內的 National General 貢獻了 420 萬份保單的成長，Allstate 品牌財產責任保單增加了 374,000 份，反映出直接通路能力的增強以及透過 Allstate 代理商銷售的房主的成長。

Property-Liability policies in force also grew organically by 1.5% from 37.5 million to 38.3 million in 2021, driven by contributions from growth in both the Allstate and National General brands, reflecting enhanced direct and independent agent capabilities.

在 Allstate 和 National General 品牌成長的推動下，有效的財產責任保單也有機成長了 1.5%，從 3,750 萬份增至 2021 年的 3,830 萬份，反映出直接和獨立代理能力的增強。

The chart on the right shows a breakdown of new issued applications for personal auto, which grew 61% compared to the prior year. The middle section of the chart shows Allstate brand impacts by channel, which grew 4.3% compared to the prior year. Existing exclusive agents increased new business compared to the prior year, but that increase was offset by fewer appointments of new agents. As you know, we significantly reduced the number of new Allstate agents being appointed beginning in early 2020 as we've been developing and deploying a new agent model to drive higher growth at a lower cost.

右圖顯示了新發布的個人汽車申請的明細，與前一年相比增加了 61%。圖表的中間部分顯示了好事達按管道劃分的品牌影響力，與前一年相比增長了 4.3%。與前一年相比，現有獨家代理商增加了新業務，但這一增長被新代理商任命的減少所抵消。如您所知，我們從 2020 年初開始大幅減少了任命的新 Allstate 代理商數量，因為我們一直在開發和部署新的代理商模式，以更低的成本推動更高的成長。

The direct channel now represents 30% of new auto policies and grew by 28% compared to the prior year. This more than offset a slight decline from existing agents and volume that would historically have been generated by newly appointed agents. On the far right of the chart, you can see the significant impact of National General, which added 2 million applications in 2021.

目前，直接管道佔新汽車保單的 30%，與前一年相比成長了 28%。這足以抵消現有代理商和新任命代理商歷史上產生的交易量的輕微下降。在圖表的最右側，您可以看到 National General 的顯著影響，它在 2021 年增加了 200 萬份申請。

Slide 12 shows how Protection Services continues to generate profitable growth. Revenues, which exclude the impact of net gains and losses on investments and derivatives, increased 21.9% to $606 million in the quarter and increased 23.5% to $2.3 billion for the full year 2021. The increase in revenues was driven by continued growth at Allstate Protection Plans and Arity.

幻燈片 12 顯示了 Protection Services 如何持續實現獲利成長。在剔除投資和衍生性商品淨損益的影響後，本季營收成長 21.9%，達到 6.06 億美元，2021 年全年營收成長 23.5%，達到 23 億美元。營收成長是由 Allstate Protection 的持續成長推動的計畫和數量。

Allstate Protection Plans grew revenue by 23.8% and written premium by 49.1% for the full year 2021 compared to the prior year, driven by expanded products and partnerships, including the successful launch of the Home Depot relationship earlier in 2021. As written premium is earned over policy periods that can range from 1 to 5 years, it will continue to generate future revenue growth as we earn the $2 billion of unearned premium associated with Allstate Protection Plans on our balance sheet as of year-end.

受擴大的產品和合作夥伴關係（包括 2021 年初成功推出家得寶關係）的推動，Allstate Protection Plans 2021 年全年收入較上年增長 23.8%，承保保費增長 49.1%。在1 至5 年的保單期限內，它將繼續帶來未來的收入成長，因為截至年底，我們的資產負債表上已賺取20 億美元與Allstate 保障計劃相關的不勞而獲的保費。

Arity expanded revenues by integrating LeadCloud and Transparent.ly into its customer offerings, which were acquired as part of the National General acquisition as well as increased device revenue, driven by growth in the Milewise product.

Arity 透過將 LeadCloud 和透明.ly 整合到其客戶產品中來擴大收入（這些產品是作為 National General 收購的一部分而獲得的），並且在 Milewise 產品增長的推動下增加了設備收入。

Policies in force increased 8.9% to 148 million, primarily due to growth at Allstate Protection Plans. Adjusted net income of $179 million for the full year 2021 represented an increase of $26 million compared to the prior year, driven by growth at Allstate Protection Plans. We will continue to invest in growing these businesses as they provide an attractive opportunity to both meet customer needs and create economic value for our shareholders.

有效保單增加 8.9%，達到 1.48 億份，主要是由於 Allstate 保障計劃的成長。受 Allstate Protection Plans 成長的推動，2021 年全年調整後淨利潤為 1.79 億美元，較上年增加 2,600 萬美元。我們將繼續投資發展這些業務，因為它們為滿足客戶需求並為股東創造經濟價值提供了一個有吸引力的機會。

Let's move to Slide 13 and talk about the Allstate Health and Benefits segment, which generated growth and increased profit, reflecting the National General acquisition. We've been offering voluntary benefits through the employer channel for over 20 years, and the acquisition of National General added both group and individual health products to our portfolio. These additions drove a significant increase in revenue, with premiums and contract charges increasing 66.5% to the prior year.

讓我們轉到幻燈片 13，討論 Allstate 健康和福利部門，該部門實現了成長並增加了利潤，反映了 National General 的收購。 20 多年來，我們一直透過雇主管道提供自願福利，收購 National General 後，我們的產品組合中增加了團體和個人健康產品。這些增加帶動了收入的顯著增長，保費和合約費用比上一年增長了 66.5%。

It also brought in a stream of $359 million of additional revenue, shown as other revenue on this slide, primarily from administrative fees and commissions from sales of nonproprietary health products.

它還帶來了 3.59 億美元的額外收入，如本投影片中的其他收入所示，主要來自管理費和非專利保健產品銷售佣金。

Adjusted net income more than doubled to $208 million in 2021, as higher income from the National General acquisition was partially offset by a higher benefit ratio, reflecting higher life mortality in 2021 and lower benefit utilization in the prior year.

2021 年調整後淨收入增加了一倍多，達到2.08 億美元，因為收購National General 的收入增加被較高的福利比率部分抵消，反映出2021 年生命死亡率較高，而上一年的福利利用率較低。

Now let's move to Slide 14, which highlights our investment performance. Net investment income totaled $847 million in the quarter, which was $187 million above the prior year quarter, driven by higher performance-based income as shown in the chart on the left. Performance-based income totaled $516 million in the quarter, as shown in gray, reflecting private equity appreciation and direct asset sales. As in prior quarters, we experienced broad-based private equity valuation increases.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 14，其中重點介紹了我們的投資績效。該季度淨投資收入總計 8.47 億美元，比去年同期增加 1.87 億美元，這得益於較高的績效收入（如左圖所示）。本季基於績效的收入總計 5.16 億美元（如灰色所示），反映了私募股權增值和直接資產出售。與前幾季一樣，我們經歷了廣泛的私募股權估值上漲。

Several large idiosyncratic contributions -- contributors meaningfully impacted results in the quarter with about 50% of performance-based investment income generated by 10 individual investments. Market-based income, shown in blue, was $7 million below the prior year quarter. The impact of reinvestment rates below the average interest-bearing yield was largely mitigated in the quarter by higher average assets under management and prepayment fee income.

幾項巨大的特殊貢獻－貢獻者對本季的業績產生了重大影響，約 50% 的基於績效的投資收入是由 10 項單獨投資產生的。基於市場的收入（以藍色顯示）比去年同期低 700 萬美元。再投資率低於平均計息收益率的影響在本季度因平均管理資產和預付款費用收入的增加而得到很大程度上緩解。

During 2021, the portfolio also generated more than $1 billion in net gains on investments and derivative instruments, including $428 million from valuation of market-based equity investments and $167 million of net gains from the performance-based portfolio, primarily from gains on sales of direct real estate investments.

2021 年，該投資組合還產生了超過10 億美元的投資和衍生工具淨收益，其中包括來自基於市場的股權投資估值的4.28 億美元和基於業績的投資組合的1.67 億美元淨收益，主要來自銷售收益直接房地產投資。

Our total portfolio return was 1.1% in the fourth quarter and 4.4% year-to-date, reflecting income and higher equity valuations, partially offset by higher interest rates. On the right, we've provided our annualized portfolio return in total and by strategy over various time horizons. Our total portfolio returns have been strong across these time periods, with contributions from both our market-based and performance-based portfolios.

我們第四季的投資組合總回報率為 1.1%，今年迄今為 4.4%，反映了收入和較高的股票估值，但部分被較高的利率所抵消。在右側，我們提供了不同時間範圍內按策略劃分的年化投資組合總回報。在這些時期內，我們的投資組合總回報一直很強勁，這得益於我們基於市場和基於績效的投資組合的貢獻。

The market-based portfolio delivers predictable earnings to support business needs, with returns highly influenced by public markets. The performance-based portfolio is deployed against capital and longer liabilities and supplements market risk with idiosyncratic risk. Equity investments have higher long-term returns which compensate investors for higher volatility, and we have sufficient capital to hold these assets through the full investment cycle.

基於市場的投資組合可提供可預測的收益來支持業務需求，其回報率深受公開市場的影響。基於績效的投資組合針對資本和長期負債進行部署，並以特殊風險補充市場風險。股權投資具有較高的長期回報，可以補償投資者較高的波動性，我們有足夠的資本在整個投資週期中持有這些資產。

Our performance-based portfolio has experienced returns above our historical trend over the last several quarters. While prospective returns will depend on future economic and market conditions, we do expect these returns to moderate from last year's level.

在過去幾個季度中，我們基於績效的投資組合的回報率高於歷史趨勢。雖然預期回報將取決於未來的經濟和市場狀況，但我們預計這些回報將比去年的水平放緩。

Now let's go to Slide 15 to discuss our proactive portfolio management. Our investment portfolio is a key contributor to shareholder value and is highly integrated into our overall enterprise risk and return processes. The divestiture of the life and annuity businesses reduced our portfolio from $94 billion at year-end 2020 to $65 billion today and provided us an opportunity to shift our asset allocation to increase risk-adjusted returns.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 15 來討論我們的主動投資組合管理。我們的投資組合是股東價值的關鍵貢獻者，並高度融入我們的整體企業風險和回報流程。壽險和年金業務的剝離使我們的投資組合從 2020 年底的 940 億美元減少到今天的 650 億美元，並為我們提供了調整資產配置以提高風險調整回報的機會。

Since most of these -- of the assets backing our life and annuity business were fixed income securities, the divestiture lowered overall enterprise interest rate and credit risk. As a result, we increased our allocation to higher return in equity investments while maintaining the total amount of capital backing investment risks.

由於支持我們的壽險和年金業務的大部分資產都是固定收益證券，因此剝離降低了整體企業利率和信用風險。因此，我們增加了對更高回報的股權投資的配置，同時維持了投資風險的資本總額。

As you can see from the bottom left, higher return public equity and performance-based investments now account for 23% of the overall portfolio. These investments do have more volatility than fixed income securities, so we allocate more capital to support them, but the higher return more than offsets the risk of increased volatility, creating additional shareholder value.

從左下角可以看到，回報較高的公共股權和基於績效的投資目前佔整體投資組合的 23%。這些投資確實比固定收益證券具有更大的波動性，因此我們分配更多的資本來支持它們，但更高的回報足以抵消波動性增加的風險，創造額外的股東價值。

Over 3/4 of the portfolio is still fixed income securities, which generates consistent cash flow. The result is a higher returning portfolio with lower interest rate risk overall. We actively manage interest rate risk and consider how it impacts overall enterprise risk and return. As you can see in the blue bars on the right chart, we extended duration from 2018 to 2020 when interest rates, shown in the orange line, were declining. This mitigated the impact of lower interest rates on auto insurance prices and was a balanced risk and return position from an enterprise perspective.

超過 3/4 的投資組合仍然是固定收益證券，從而產生穩定的現金流。其結果是投資組合報酬率較高，整體利率風險較低。我們積極管理利率風險，並考慮其如何影響整體企業風險和回報。正如您在右圖的藍色條中看到的，我們將久期從 2018 年延長至 2020 年，當時橙色線所示的利率正在下降。這減輕了利率下降對車險價格的影響，從企業角度來看是一個平衡風險和回報的狀況。

In 2021, we concluded that interest rates were not sufficiently compensating us for the risk that interest rates would rise, which would have a negative impact on the valuation of our bond portfolio. As you know, the consumer price index increased throughout 2021, shown by the light blue line on the chart, and we've discussed at length the impact that inflation has had on auto insurance margins. As a result, we shortened the duration of the fixed income portfolio through the sale of long corporate and municipal bonds and, to a lesser extent, the use of derivatives.

2021年，我們的結論是，利率不足以補償我們的利率上升風險，這將對我們債券投資組合的估值產生負面影響。如您所知，消費者物價指數在 2021 年全年都在上漲，如圖中淺藍色線所示，我們已經詳細討論了通貨膨脹對汽車保險利潤率的影響。因此，我們透過出售長期公司債和市政債券以及在較小程度上使用衍生性商品來縮短固定收益投資組合的久期。

We are taking additional actions in 2022 to further reduce the negative impact higher interest rates would have on fixed income valuations. This will lower fixed income portfolio yield and investment income for the near term, but positions the portfolio to reinvest into higher rates if they continue to rise.

我們將在 2022 年採取更多行動，以進一步減少利率上升對固定收益估值的負面影響。這將降低短期內固定收益投資組合的收益率和投資收益，但如果利率繼續上升，投資組合將能夠再投資於更高的利率。

Finally, let's move to Slide 16, which highlights Allstate's strong capital position. Allstate's capital position remains strong and enables significant cash returns to shareholders while investing in growth. We returned $4.1 billion through a combination of share repurchases and common stock dividends in 2021. The common dividend was increased 50% compared to 2020, and common shares outstanding were reduced by 7.8% over the last 12 months. So if you held a share of stock at the beginning of 2020, you now own 7.8% more of the enterprise.

最後，讓我們轉到投影片 16，它強調了 Allstate 強大的資本狀況。好事達的資本狀況依然強勁，在投資於成長的同時為股東帶來了可觀的現金回報。 2021 年，我們透過股票回購和普通股股利結合的方式回報了 41 億美元。普通股股利較 2020 年增加了 50%，過去 12 個月內已發行普通股減少了 7.8%。因此，如果您在 2020 年初持有股票，那麼您現在擁有該企業的股份增加了 7.8%。

As of year-end 2021, we had $3.3 billion remaining on the current $5 billion share repurchase program, which is expected to be completed by March 31, 2023.

截至 2021 年底，我們目前的 50 億美元股票回購計畫還剩 33 億美元，預計將於 2023 年 3 月 31 日完成。

With that, let's open the line for questions.

接下來，讓我們打開提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

My first question, in the prepared statements in the press release, you mentioned the idea of rationalizing expenses in order to get back to profitability. You also have a goal of reducing your expense ratio by 300 basis points through transforming growth over the next 3 years. Are you accelerating the process? Are you going to be taking some costs out that will return in 2023, but be offset by some more restructuring? How do the different parts of that play together? Hello? Hello?

我的第一個問題，在新聞稿中準備好的聲明中，您提到了合理化支出以恢復盈利的想法。您的目標還包括在未來 3 年內透過轉變成長方式將費用率降低 300 個基點。您正在加速這一進程嗎？您是否打算削減一些成本，這些成本將在 2023 年回歸，但透過更多的重組來抵消？它的不同部分如何一起發揮作用？你好？你好？

Tom, did you want to start?

湯姆，你想開始嗎？

Maybe we lost Tom.

也許我們失去了湯姆。

Mario, you should start.

馬裡奧，你該開始了。

Okay. All right.

好的。好的。

It sounds like -- Josh, can you hear me?

聽起來就像是——喬什，你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, yes. Go ahead.

是的是的。前進。

Okay. Great. It only took me 5 tries with #6 -- or *6. First, I don't think you should think about -- there are obviously things you do in the short term like we reduced advertising a little bit in the fourth quarter because we don't want to go get a bunch of customers and then end up with a large price increase in the next 6 months. So you manage that. But in general, when you look at our expense reduction program, it's well laid out. It's -- I think it's another 3 years. It includes everything from using digital processes and getting rid of extra labor to using more outsourcing and cleaning up our processes and reducing our technology costs with the new platform. So those things will roll out. You can't really accelerate those because it has impact on customers.

好的。偉大的。我只用#6 或*6 嘗試了5 次。首先，我認為你不應該考慮——顯然你應該在短期內做一些事情，比如我們在第四季度稍微減少了廣告，因為我們不想吸引一堆客戶然後結束未來6個月價格將大幅上漲。所以你可以做到這一點。但總的來說，當您查看我們的費用削減計劃時，您會發現它的佈局很好。我想又是三年了。它包括從使用數位流程和擺脫額外勞動力到使用更多外包和清理我們的流程以及透過新平台降低技術成本的一切。所以這些事情將會推出。你無法真正加速這些，因為它會對客戶產生影響。

So we're not doing anything to -- in the -- for 2022 to just get to our number that then you're going to turn around and look at 2023 and say, jeez, I thought you were profitable and now you're not. So we take a longer-term view of that. That's a little different in pricing in that we will be more aggressive early on in pricing and try to get ahead of the curve as opposed to trying to smooth that out over a multiyear period.

因此，我們不會在 2022 年做任何事情來獲得我們的數字，然後你會轉身看看 2023 年，然後說，天哪，我以為你是盈利的，但現在你是不是。所以我們對此採取更長遠的看法。這在定價上有點不同，因為我們會在定價的早期更加積極地定價，並努力走在曲線的前面，而不是試圖在多年的時間內平滑這一點。

Mario or Glenn, anything you would add to that?

馬裡奧或格倫，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, Josh, this is Mario. Thanks for the question. I would agree with Tom, I think what we're focused on is permanent cost reductions that will, on a sustained basis, improve our competitive position and improve customer value and really enable profitable growth. And we're going to continue to focus on things like operating costs and distribution costs that we can permanently take out of the system. And as Tom mentioned, leveraging tools like automation, process redesign, offshoring where we can, and really kind of implement plans that do take time and aren't the kinds of things that I think you can accelerate the execution of.

是的，喬什，這是馬裡奧。謝謝你的提問。我同意湯姆的觀點，我認為我們關注的是永久性成本降低，這將持續提高我們的競爭地位，提高客戶價值，並真正實現獲利成長。我們將繼續關注營運成本和分銷成本等我們可以永久從系統中剔除的問題。正如湯姆所提到的，利用自動化、流程重新設計、盡可能進行離岸外包等工具，以及實施確實需要時間的計劃，而且我認為這些計劃無法加速執行。

But we're also not focused on ripping a bunch of costs out that's just going to come back into the system. We want to make the cost reductions permanent, achieve the 3 points over time because that will really position us to grow and grow at really attractive returns going forward.

但我們也不專注於削減大量只會回到系統中的成本。我們希望永久降低成本，隨著時間的推移實現這 3 點，因為這將使我們真正能夠成長，並在未來獲得真正有吸引力的回報。

So the expense ratio was a little high obviously in the quarter, and I'm actually referring to in the press release where you said that you're going to drive down expenses. It seemed like it was more reactive to what's going on right now. There's a short-term benefit. At least -- I'm trying to find the wording in the press release. In response, Allstate is reducing expenses and claims loss management, reducing expenses here in response. I mean obviously, you have the Transformative Growth plan, but is there an initiative on top of that to reduce expenses to get you to a healthy underwriting profit in the near term associated with the spike in losses?

因此，本季的費用比率顯然有點高，我實際上指的是新聞稿中您所說的話將降低費用。看起來它對現在發生的事情反應更強烈。有一個短期的好處。至少——我正在努力尋找新聞稿中的措辭。作為回應，好事達正在減少開支和索賠損失管理，減少這裡的開支作為回應。我的意思顯然是，您有轉型成長計劃，但除此之外是否有一項計劃可以減少開支，使您在短期內獲得與損失激增相關的健康承保利潤？

Josh, I don't -- we did not mean for it to have that interpretation. When you look at improving profitability in auto insurance, #1 thing will be increasing our rates. As the lowering expenses, as part of Mario said, the growth objective, our Transformative Growth plan, that will obviously help, but we would have done that anyway. In fact, we started at like 2 or 3 years ago, and we're really glad we did it because we came into this year with, as Glenn pointed out, about 3 points lower than we would have been had we not started.

喬什，我不——我們並不是故意讓它有這樣的解釋。當您考慮提高汽車保險的盈利能力時，第一件事就是提高我們的費率。正如馬裡奧所說，降低開支，成長目標，我們的轉型成長計劃，這顯然會有所幫助，但無論如何我們都會這樣做。事實上，我們從兩三年前就開始了，我們真的很高興我們做到了，因為正如格倫指出的那樣，我們今年的分數比我們沒有開始時低了大約 3 個百分點。

But that's an ongoing piece, but it's a component of improving profitability, but it's just not -- not like we started it. In claim loss cost management, it is somewhere in between the two. You're always using data analytics and new claim processes, new relationships with vendors to try to reduce your costs. But as the costs change and the locus of those costs change, sometimes you have to adjust the programs you have in place. So I would say that the primary thing to focus on is rate increases in terms of the near-term improvement in auto profitability.

但這是一個正在進行的工作，也是提高獲利能力的一個組成部分，但它並不是——不像我們開始的那樣。在索賠損失成本管理中，它介於兩者之間。您始終使用數據分析和新的索賠流程以及與供應商的新關係來嘗試降低成本。但隨著成本的變化以及這些成本的發生地點的變化，有時您必須調整現有的計劃。因此，我想說，首先要關注的是汽車獲利能力近期改善的升息。

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Peters with Raymond James.

你的下一個問題來自格雷格·彼得斯和雷蒙·詹姆斯的對話。

Good morning, everyone. I would like to turn our attention to Slide 8 of your investor presentation and where you roll through the details about the rate increases that you're -- that you've achieved and your expectations going forward. I guess just in the chart that's in the bottom left, just a further clarification on that. It says number of locations, 25. Is locations the same thing as states? Or are we dealing with 100 locations? And then when we see an Allstate brand increase of 2.9%, is that a quarterly increase that we can annualize? And I guess where this is going is just trying to figure out the rate you're getting versus where the loss cost trend is and if you're catching up, exceeding it or still behind?

大家，早安。我想將我們的注意力轉向您的投資者簡報的第 8 張投影片，其中您詳細介紹了您已實現的加息以及您對未來的期望。我想就在左下角的圖表中，對此做了進一步的澄清。它說地點的數量，25。地點和州是一樣的嗎？或者我們正在處理 100 個地點？然後，當我們看到 Allstate 品牌成長 2.9% 時，我們可以將這個季度成長年化嗎？我想這只是想弄清楚你所獲得的利率與損失成本趨勢的關係，以及你是否正在趕上、超過或仍然落後？

Greg, I understand the need and desire to get to the math, and that's why we've added the monthly disclosure. Glenn, do you want to take the specifics on the slide?

格雷格，我理解進行數學計算的必要性和願望，這就是我們添加每月披露的原因。格倫，你想了解幻燈片上的細節嗎？

Sure. So directly answering the question, the 2.9% is an annualized and the 25 are states. So this truly is like if we stopped, if all we did was the fourth quarter, we got 2.9% rate increase across our book of business. We're not stopping in the fourth quarter, and we did a little bit in the third quarter, so we took about $800 million in rate increases between the 2 quarters and we'll continue to. But that amount of money, when you look at the right side, you look at the 81 and the 702, that is the full impact of the rate increase.

當然。所以直接回答這個問題，2.9%是年化利率，25個是州。因此，這確實就像如果我們停下來，如果我們所做的只是第四季度，我們的業務帳面利率將成長 2.9%。我們不會在第四季停止，我們在第三季做了一些工作，所以我們在兩個季度之間增加了大約 8 億美元的利率，我們將繼續這樣做。但這筆錢，當你看右邊時，你看81和702，這就是利率上漲的全部影響。

Greg, when we get to the -- when we do the auto call in March, we'll give you a little more specifics on how to calculate that because the 2.9% is based on the -- it's a dollar number, right? We have a dollar number of what we think we're going to get. It's 2.9% -- is 2.9% times the prior year premiums. As the prior year premiums, if you look at the total, of course, when you're raising rates, it keeps going up, too. So the full year number is not the annualized number of December. So we'll help you figure out how to do that in March.

格雷格，當我們在 3 月進行自動電話會議時，我們會給您更多關於如何計算的細節，因為 2.9% 是基於——這是一個美元數字，對嗎？我們有一個我們認為我們會得到的美元數字。這是 2.9%——是去年保費的 2.9%。作為上一年的保費，如果你看一下總數，當然，當你提高利率時，它也會不斷上升。所以全年數並不是12月份的年化數。因此，我們將在三月幫助您弄清楚如何做到這一點。

Got it. I appreciate the color. And by the way, the increased disclosure, I think, is appropriate, considering where you guys are, so applaud that change. I guess the other -- the big picture question around the slide and just the market environment. Obviously, the auto market is under a lot of duress right now with inflation issues. And there's been news reports from different states and different regulators about pushback on rate increase filings.

知道了。我很欣賞它的顏色。順便說一句，考慮到你們的處境，我認為增加披露是適當的，所以對這一變化表示讚賞。我猜是另一個問題——圍繞幻燈片的大局問題和市場環境。顯然，由於通貨膨脹問題，汽車市場目前面臨很大的壓力。不同州和不同監管機構都有新聞報告加息申請遭到抵制。

And I thought maybe you could give us an update of -- I don't want to go state by state, but some of the big target states, how the regulators are responding to the data that you're showing them, is it a process that's going to take a while? Or do you think they're receptive immediately? Just if you could give us sort of a state of the union on the regulatory front, that would be helpful.

我想也許你可以向我們提供最新情況——我不想逐個州，但一些大目標州，監管機構如何回應你向他們展示的數據，是不是這個過程需要一段時間嗎？還是你認為他們會立即接受？如果您能為我們介紹一下監管方面的國情咨文，那就有幫助了。

Glenn, could you handle that?

格倫，你能應付嗎？

Sure, will. So Greg, it's a great question. And I know we've been, the last couple of quarters, the conversation has been a lot about will there be pushback when we get it. I think the evidence -- this page that you pointed us back to, Page 8, the evidence is pretty clear, 25 states implemented at a 7.1% average increase. We are continuing to go at a very fast pace across other states and even in some cases, the same states, again, with rate increases as we get new data and new trends. And to this point, we have -- you're always going to experience some discussions, some push on the data, some negotiation, if you will, and some back and forth.

當然，會。格雷格，這是一個很好的問題。我知道過去幾個季度我們一直在討論很多關於當我們得到它時是否會遇到阻力。我認為證據——你給我們指出的這一頁，第 8 頁，證據非常清楚，25 個州的平均成長率為 7.1%。我們繼續以非常快的速度在其他州，甚至在某些情況下，在相同的州，再次，隨著我們獲得新數據和新趨勢，費率會增加。到目前為止，我們——你總是會經歷一些討論，一些數據推動，一些談判，如果你願意的話，以及一些來回。

But we've -- you can see it there, those are implemented rates. And we've been successful. And our people, and I give a ton of credit to our state managers and our product team who've done, over years, an incredible job of building relationships because they provide a lot of detail when they do a rate increase or a rate decrease, any type of rate change we make. And we get great responses because ultimately, these are numbers people talking to numbers people. It is less -- most often anyway, is less a political issue than it is a reality issue of looking at the numbers and what is the justifiable and supportable rate increase.

但我們——你可以在那裡看到，這些是執行率。我們已經成功了。我和我們的員工非常感謝我們的州經理和產品團隊，多年來，他們在建立關係方面做出了令人難以置信的工作，因為他們在加息或減息時提供了很多細節，我們所做的任何類型的利率變化。我們得到了很好的回應，因為歸根結底，這些都是數字人與數字人交談。無論如何，大多數情況下，它不是一個政治問題，而是一個現實問題，需要關注數字以及合理和可支持的升息幅度。

And again, we've been very successful so far. We have no reason to believe we won't continue to be. We'll have pushback in places, and we'll have discussions and give and take. But overall, we're getting the rates that we need, and we're going to continue to do that.

再說一次，到目前為止我們非常成功。我們沒有理由相信我們不會繼續這樣下去。我們會在某些地方遇到阻力，我們會進行討論並給予和接受。但總體而言，我們正在獲得所需的利率，我們將繼續這樣做。

Greg, it's -- the regulators come at it when they want to treat customers fairly. And as Glenn pointed out, the first thing they want is transparency, and our team spends a tremendous amount of time trying to be transparent with the regulators. It's also about what's your history with them. So we did a Shelter-in-Place Payback of $1 billion. No regulator asked us or forced us to do it. We did it proactively within like 10 days of notice and the guys who are on this team got organized on it.

格雷格，當監管機構想要公平對待客戶時，他們就會這麼做。正如格倫所指出的，他們首先想要的是透明度，我們的團隊花了大量時間試圖向監管機構保持透明度。這也與你和他們的歷史有關。因此，我們的就地避難所投資回報為 10 億美元。沒有監管機構要求我們或強迫我們這樣做。我們在收到通知後 10 天內就主動採取了行動，團隊成員也組織起來。

So it's not like they do everything we want, but it's about treating customers fairly. And then in addition, when you're going in on the physical damage coverages, it's paid in 90 days. So there's not a great debate over whether the money went out or not. It just does. And then bodily injury can be a little more discussion around it because there are longer-term trends, but we have good math on that as well. So we're confident we can get our combined ratio into the target level that Glenn talked about, which is in mid-90s.

因此，他們並不是做我們想做的一切，而是公平對待客戶。此外，當您購買實體損壞保險時，會在 90 天內支付。因此，對於這筆錢是否花出去，並沒有太大的爭論。確實如此。然後，可以圍繞身體傷害進行更多討論，因為存在長期趨勢，但我們對此也有很好的數學計算。因此，我們有信心將綜合比率達到 Glenn 談到的目標水平，即 90 年代中期。

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler.

你的下一個問題來自保羅·紐瑟姆和派珀·桑德勒的對話。

I was hoping you could talk a little bit more about auto claim severity on sort of an ongoing basis because maybe the Manheim used car prices don't do this incredible increase again. And so I think if there's anything you can do to help us kind of figure out what that trend would be if you pull out some of the real extraordinary things that happened over the last 6 months. So I think that might help us get to a better kind of ongoing run rate.

我希望你能在持續的基礎上更多地談論汽車索賠的嚴重程度，因為也許曼海姆二手車價格不會再次出現這種令人難以置信的增長。因此，我認為如果你能找出過去 6 個月發生的一些真正非凡的事情，你可以做些什麼來幫助我們弄清楚這種趨勢會是什麼。所以我認為這可能有助於我們獲得更好的持續運行率。

Glenn has some good math on that.

格倫在這方面有一些很好的數學知識。

Yes. So as we look at severity, a significant majority on the physical damage lines, which you were pointing to, Paul, is driven by the price of cars. It's -- I think I said this last quarter, but I really like the example of if you were -- if you have a life insurance company and all your policy limits went up by 50% or something with no premium change, you'd have an issue. And really, the value of the car is the policy limit. That's the capitation method for property damage and collision. So that moving up has driven, call it, 80-ish percent of the overall severity issue.

是的。因此，當我們考慮嚴重性時，保羅，你所指出的物理損壞線的絕大多數是由汽車價格驅動的。我想我在上個季度說過這個，但我真的很喜歡這個例子，如果你有一家人人壽保險公司，你的所有保單限額都增加了 50% 或者保費沒有變化，你會有問題。事實上，汽車的價值是政策限制。這就是財產損失和碰撞的按人頭計算的方法。因此，升級驅動了整體嚴重性問題的 80% 左右。

So as I look at that, there are a couple of ways you can look at it going forward, and this is not just Allstate, this is looking at the world around us that we operate in. One is when will supply chain issues and chip shortages be corrected. Most of what you see externally is that, that will last through 2022. The other one is that there's likely some sort of structural maximum that used car prices go to because they probably won't end up exceeding new cars' prices. And as we get to a year-over-year comparison, where in Q2 of 2021 was the largest single quarter of increase where there was that really steep uphill climb, at some point, you're not going to have those same type of increases on a year-over-year basis, but you may stabilize at a higher level for some period of time.

因此，當我看待這個問題時，您可以透過多種方式來看待未來的發展，這不僅僅是好事達，而是著眼於我們經營所在的周圍世界。其中之一是供應鏈問題和晶片何時會出現不足之處修正。你從外部看到的大部分情況是，這將持續到 2022 年。另一個是二手車價格可能會達到某種結構性最高點，因為它們最終可能不會超過新車的價格。當我們進行同比比較時，2021 年第二季度是最大的單季增長，出現了非常陡峭的上坡，在某些時候，你不會再出現同樣類型的增長與去年同期相比，但可能會在一段時間內穩定在較高水準。

And that's what we've factored into the way we're looking at our incurred losses, and it's in there in terms of the way we've reported our results and our severities and how we're looking at it going forward.

這就是我們在看待所發生的損失的方式中所考慮的因素，它體現在我們報告結果和嚴重性的方式以及我們如何看待未來的情況中。

What about the inflation on that -- the non -- sort of the non-limit piece, that 20%? What do you think that's doing today?

那 20% 的通貨膨脹怎麼樣？你認為今天它在做什麼？

Yes. That is -- so when you look at the -- whether it's repair parts costs are accelerating, labor, like most industries, labor costs going up, that's continuing to move up. But I think an important way to look at it is if you removed the cost of cars, the used car price, that limit going up, everything else combined would be in line with sort of our normal trend for severity, that mid-single-digit trend that you'd expect to see.

是的。也就是說，當你看一下時，無論是維修零件成本在加速，還是像大多數行業一樣，勞動成本正在上升，都在持續上升。但我認為看待這個問題的一個重要方法是，如果你除去汽車成本、二手車價格、上漲的限制，其他所有因素結合起來將符合我們嚴重程度的正常趨勢，即中單-您期望看到的數字趨勢。

Now then that's completely excluding one major factor, so I understand that it has a little bias to it because car prices do go up a little bit over time. But it is driving the lion's share of it because it's not like you expect severities to be flat year-over-year. They've moved up. Every year over long, long periods of time, there's just normal inflationary movement that happens in there, wherever it's low single digits some years, mid-single digits or even higher single digits other years. What is so extreme right now driving the double-digit increases is that change in car prices, but the 20% that I referred to is labor and repair costs, which we're really looking to tackle by increasing our use of direct repair and leveraging our scale in parts purchasing.

現在，這完全排除了一個主要因素，所以我知道它有一點偏差，因為汽車價格確實會隨著時間的推移而上漲。但它是其中最大的推動者，因為它並不像你預期的那樣，嚴重程度會比去年同期持平。他們已經升職了。在很長一段時間裡，每年都會發生正常的通貨膨脹運動，有些年份是低個位數，有些年份是中個位數，甚至是高個位數。目前推動兩位數成長的最極端因素是汽車價格的變化，但我提到的 20% 是勞動力和維修成本，我們真正希望透過增加直接維修和槓桿的使用來解決這個問題我們的零件採購規模。

Your next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Yaron Kinar 和 Jefferies 的對話。

First question. Slide 7 shows that auto frequency is still at a $1.4 billion [net guide] relative to 2019. So my question is, do you expect that frequency to normalize? And if so, is the 7% rate increase that you show on Slide 8 already contemplating that normalized frequency?

第一個問題。第 7 張投影片顯示，與 2019 年相比，汽車頻率仍為 14 億美元[網路指南]。所以我的問題是，您預計該頻率會正常化嗎？如果是這樣，您在投影片 8 上顯示的 7% 的成長率是否已經考慮到了標準化頻率？

Glenn, do you want to take that?

格倫，你想接受這個嗎？

I will. Yes. So I give a ton of credit to our team that does all our math and our modeling, they've done a really nice job on frequency, and we're sitting just about right on top of where we expected to be a year ago on it. So will it normalize to some degree? Probably. While we can't predict -- different things can happen in the world, we can't predict and won't give a forward-looking prediction of frequency, you'd expect there to be some normalization to prepandemic levels. But as we've said for a while now that we believe that there is some durable structural change. People aren't going to be commuting to office buildings as frequently as they did before the pandemic. We probably all know many people, including some of ourselves, that don't do that and won't do that even on an ongoing basis. And 40% of our losses occur in rush hour, so the commuting time, Monday to Friday, mornings and afternoons. So when you've got significantly fewer drivers on 40% of your loss time period and that shift in when people drive, it makes changes to both frequency and severity.

我會。是的。因此，我非常感謝我們的團隊，他們完成了所有的數學計算和建模，他們在頻率方面做得非常好，我們正處於一年前預期的水平之上。它。那麼它會在某種程度上正常化嗎？大概。雖然我們無法預測——世界上可能會發生不同的事情，我們無法預測也不會給出頻率的前瞻性預測，但你會期望大流行前的水平會出現一些正常化。但正如我們已經說過一段時間的那樣，我們相信存在一些持久的結構性變化。人們不會像大流行之前那樣頻繁地往返辦公大樓。我們可能都知道很多人，包括我們自己中的一些人，都不會這樣做，即使是持續下去也不會這樣做。而我們40%的損失發生在尖峰時段，所以通勤時間，週一到週五，早上和下午。因此，當您在 40% 的損失時間內駕駛人數大幅減少，並且人們開車的時間發生變化時，頻率和嚴重程度都會改變。

So we think that there's some durable reduction there that, barring all the other things that change around it, would be consistent in the way frequency stays a bit lower. But as I mentioned earlier in the prepared remarks, we also see some severity increase from that because the driving has shifted to more leisure times, to times where the roads are more open, people are driving faster. It creates harder hits with greater severity. That's hitting us both on the physical damage and the casualty side. So there's just a lot of pieces and parts in there.

因此，我們認為，除了周圍所有其他因素變化之外，存在一些持久的減少，頻率保持在較低水平的方式將是一致的。但正如我之前在準備好的發言中提到的，我們也看到了一些嚴重程度的增加，因為駕駛已經轉向更多的休閒時間，轉向道路更開放的時間，人們駕駛得更快。它會造成更嚴重的打擊。這對我們的物理傷害和傷亡都造成了打擊。所以裡面只有很多碎片和零件。

But to summarize with your question, are we contemplating that in our rate plan? The answer is absolutely yes. We are contemplating in the rate plan our expectations for frequency, our expectations for severity. And we're going hard after rate, as you can see, and we're not done.

但總而言之，您的問題是，我們是否在我們的費率計劃中考慮了這一點？答案是肯定的。我們正在費率計劃中考慮我們對頻率的期望，我們對嚴重程度的期望。正如你所看到的，我們正在努力追求利率，但我們還沒有完成。

Maybe shifting to homeowners for a second. Look, I fully recognize that you have a tremendous track record there and certainly have earned your fair share of income there over the years. That said, if I look at the specific quarter, it seems like you saw some year-over-year deterioration, which seems to be a bit of an outlier relative to some of your earlier reporting peers. I'm just curious as to why this book maybe saw a different trend? I know you called out higher inflationary impact, but was there anything specific to the Allstate book?

或許暫時轉向房主。看，我完全認識到您在那裡擁有出色的業績記錄，並且多年來肯定在那裡賺取了應得的收入。也就是說，如果我看一下具體的季度，您似乎看到了一些同比惡化，與您之前報告的一些同行相比，這似乎有點異常。我只是好奇為什麼這本書可能會看到不同的趨勢？我知道您提到了更高的通膨影響，但是好事達的書有什麼具體內容嗎？

Yes. it's hard to compare us to other people. If you're talking about Progressive, I'd say our combined ratio is 15 to 20 points better than theirs and on a billions of dollars of either theirs or ours, but I don't even think there's a comparison. But -- so we -- the business bounces around a little bit. We get a good return on capital on it. Was it in the high 90s? Is that where we want it to be on a long-term basis? No. There's a bounce around by year, yes. And so we feel highly confident we can continue to differentiate ourselves in this space in that business.

是的。很難將我們與其他人進行比較。如果你談論的是 Progressive，我會說我們的綜合比率比他們好 15 到 20 個百分點，而且他們或我們的數十億美元，但我甚至不認為有可比性。但是——所以我們——業務出現了一些反彈。我們從中獲得了良好的資本回報。是在90年代嗎？這是我們希望它長期處於的狀態嗎？不。是的，每年都會出現反彈。因此，我們非常有信心能夠繼續在該業務領域中脫穎而出。

Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

Just a question on when you think you'll be able to get to that mid-90s combined ratio in auto? Glenn, I think you've talked about some of the, I guess, your thinking around some of the moving parts around physical damage or severity. So wondering if you can maybe -- we can zoom out and think your timing when you guys think you guys can get back to that mid-90s targeted combined ratio in personal auto.

只是一個問題，您認為什麼時候能夠達到 90 年代中期的汽車綜合比率？格倫，我想你已經談到了一些關於物理損壞或嚴重程度的移動部分的想法。所以想知道你們是否可以——我們可以縮小範圍，想想你們認為你們可以回到 90 年代中期個人汽車目標綜合比率的時機。

Good question. I understand why it's important because everybody is trying to figure out the turn and when will it be in the P&L so you can get in early. And I understand the same thing is when people are looking at sort of various rate increases. The headline would be, we're not going to give a projection as to when because you can't predict what will happen to frequency, severity, rate increases.

好問題。我理解為什麼這很重要，因為每個人都在試圖弄清楚轉牌以及何時出現在損益表中，這樣你就可以儘早入場。據我了解，當人們考慮各種利率上漲時，也是同樣的情況。標題是，我們不會預測何時發生，因為你無法預測頻率、嚴重程度和速率增加會發生什麼。

What you can do is look on a longer-term basis and say, when you look at auto insurance and you look at the broad competitive set, Allstate, Progressive and GEICO tend to outperform the industry and have combined ratios which generate attractive returns and just -- you can just graph it out over 5 or 10 years and you can see we all sort of hover in the same place.

你能做的就是從更長遠的角度來看，當你審視汽車保險並審視廣泛的競爭組合時，好事達、進步和GEICO 的表現往往優於行業，並且其綜合比率可產生有吸引力的回報，而且只是──你只要把 5 到 10 年的時間畫出來，你就會發現我們都徘徊在同一個地方。

There are other people, like some of the large mutuals and stuff, which don't operate at that level, but we've proven an ability to get there. So we think that we'll continue to get there. As to the speed of it, sometimes people ask about the speed, it is very idiosyncratic. Like if your frequency moved up to near -- closer to prepandemic levels earlier than ours did, then you should have been taking price earlier. And severities, the same thing, people manage their loss costs differently.

還有其他人，例如一些大型互助機構等，他們的營運水平還達不到這一水平，但我們已經證明有能力達到這一水平。所以我們認為我們將繼續實現這一目標。至於它的速度，有時人們會問速度，它是很特殊的。就像如果你的頻率比我們更早上升到接近大流行前的水平，那麼你應該更早接受價格。同樣的事情，不同的嚴重程度，人們管理損失成本的方式也不同。

So we tend to look at it and say, look at the long term, we know how to make money in this business and highly confident we'll get there. But we've not put a date out at which we said we'll be in the mid-90s.

因此，我們傾向於看待它並說，從長遠來看，我們知道如何在這項業務中賺錢，並且非常有信心我們會實現這一目標。但我們還沒有確定我們所說的 90 年代中期的具體日期。

Okay. That's fair. And then for my second -- or my follow-up question just on -- I just wanted to focus a little bit on the bodily injury severity and some of the casualty changes, some of the charges you took this quarter. Maybe you could help me understand where that's been running. What specifically happened this quarter that made you realize that charge.

好的。這還算公平。然後，對於我的第二個問題 - 或者我的後續問題 - 我只是想稍微關註一下身體傷害的嚴重程度和一些傷亡變化，以及您本季度所承擔的一些費用。也許你可以幫助我了解它在哪裡運作。本季具體發生的事情讓您意識到了這項指控。

And I think the last time you spoke about this, you had said that it was more or less in line with medical cost inflation. I think this was a few years ago. and that was notably below your peers back then. So I guess it's sort of a long way of asking, how are you thinking about the BI severity now given the changes that you've made? And how are you reflecting that in your [picks] going forward?

我想您上次談到這個問題時曾說過，這或多或少與醫療費用通膨相符。我想這是幾年前的事了。這明顯低於當時的同齡人。因此，我想這是一個很長的問題，考慮到您所做的更改，您現在如何看待 BI 的嚴重性？您如何在未來的[選擇]中反映這一點？

Yes, it's a good question. And the percentages sometimes get a little confusing because it's a percentage; in other words, it's absolute dollars is the way we reserve to it.

是的，這是一個好問題。百分比有時會讓人有點困惑，因為它是一個百分比；換句話說，它的絕對美元是我們保留它的方式。

Mario, do you want to talk about the reserve changes?

馬裡奧，你想談談儲備金的變化嗎？

Sure, Tom. So I guess the place I'd start is we have really strong reserving processes, and we're continually looking at our reserve levels, both for the current report year but also for prior years. And we're taking into account things that we're seeing, both in terms of inflationary trends as well as other phenomenon. We talked a little bit earlier around things like medical inflation, consumption, attorney representation. Those all factor in.

當然，湯姆。因此，我想我首先要考慮的是，我們擁有非常強大的儲備流程，並且我們不斷關注本報告年度和前幾年的儲備水準。我們正在考慮我們所看到的事情，無論是通貨膨脹趨勢還是其他現象。我們之前討論過醫療通膨、消費、律師代理等問題。這些都是因素。

So I think, David, the thing we saw this quarter was we continued to see upward development in prior years in some of the casualty coverages. And we took that into account this quarter in terms of raising our ultimate report year expectations for bodily injury in a couple of the prior years. But it was really in reaction to the continuation of some of those trends that I talked about that are causing bodily injury and other casualty severities to increase to levels that were beyond kind of the range of outcomes that we had established earlier on for those prior years. So we reacted to it.

所以我認為，大衛，我們本季看到的情況是，我們在一些傷亡保險方面繼續看到前幾年的上升發展。我們在本季度提高了對前幾年人身傷害的最終報告年預期時考慮到了這一點。但這實際上是對我談到的一些趨勢持續存在的反應，這些趨勢導致人身傷害和其他傷亡嚴重程度增加到超出我們早些時候為前幾年確定的結果範圍的水平。所以我們對此做出了反應。

We tend to be conservative when we set reserves. But in this particular instance, we saw those trends develop out, and we reacted to it and increased the prior year reserves on auto casualty.

我們在設定儲備金時傾向保守。但在這個特殊的例子中，我們看到了這些趨勢的發展，我們對此做出了反應，並增加了前一年的車禍準備金。

So -- and we do it by state and by coverage. I mean so if we -- there's a fair amount of granularity to it, is market [compare] is not always as precise as you like because you're trying to guess what it's going to cost to settle a suit or something.

所以——我們是按州和覆蓋範圍來進行的。我的意思是，如果我們——有相當大的粒度，市場[比較]並不總是像你喜歡的那麼精確，因為你試圖猜測解決訴訟或其他事情需要花費多少錢。

Well, thank you for participating. Let me just close by saying there's 2 stories here. The narrower story is, it's about the insurance industry and Allstate dealing with auto insurance, of profitability caused by inflation in fixing cars and then also at fixing bodies.

嗯，謝謝您的參與。最後我要說的是這裡有兩個故事。更狹隘的故事是，它是關於保險業和好事達處理汽車保險，以及修理汽車和修理車身時通貨膨脹所帶來的盈利能力。

Great longer longitudinal story is -- which I don't want to let it on the cutting room floor is about a significant repositioning of the company while dealing with that issue. So we sold our life business. We spent $4 billion successfully, brought National General into the fold, increase our market share by 1%, much different position in the independent agent channel. Our transformation of the Allstate branded business is going quite well, whether that's expanding direct, lowering costs or building out new products and improving our competitive position.

更長的縱向故事是——我不想讓它留在剪輯室地板上，它是關於公司在處理這個問題時進行的重大重新定位。所以我們賣掉了我們的人壽業務。我們成功地花費了 40 億美元，將 National General 納入其中，將我們的市佔率增加了 1%，在獨立代理商通路中的地位截然不同。我們對好事達品牌業務的轉型進展順利，無論是直接擴張、降低成本或開發新產品並提高我們的競爭地位。

And then our Protection Services business is really reached a substantive multibillion dollar level with large source of future revenue growth to come because of the way the economy works. And at the same time, we're continuing to buy back shares and pay great dividends.

然後，我們的保護服務業務真正達到了數十億美元的水平，由於經濟的運作方式，未來收入成長的巨大來源。同時，我們將繼續回購股票並支付巨額股利。

So thank you all for participating, and we'll talk to you next quarter. Or actually, we'll talk to you in March when we come back to auto insurance.

感謝大家的參與，我們將在下個季度與您交談。或者實際上，我們將在三月回到汽車保險時與您交談。

This concludes fourth quarter conference call. You can now disconnect.

第四季電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。