Allstate Corp (ALL) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Allstate Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's program been is recorded.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加 Allstate 2021 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明） 提醒一下，今天的節目已錄製。

would I now like to introduce your host for today's program, Mark Nogal, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想介紹一下今天節目的主持人，投資者關係主管馬克·諾加爾（Mark Nogal）。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, Jonathan. Good morning. Welcome to Allstate's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. After prepared remarks, we'll have a question-and-answer session.

謝謝你，喬納森。早安.歡迎參加 Allstate 2021 年第三季財報電話會議。準備好發言後，我們將進行問答環節。

Yesterday, following the close of the market, we issued our news release and investor supplement and posted related materials to our website at allstateinvestors.com. Our management team is here to provide perspective on these results.

昨天，收盤後，我們發布了新聞稿和投資者補充資料，並將相關資料發佈到我們的網站 allstateinvestors.com 上。我們的管理團隊在此提供這些結果的看法。

As noted on the first slide of the presentation, our discussion will contain non-GAAP measures for which there are reconciliations in the news release and the investor supplement and forward-looking statements about Allstate's operations. Allstate's results may differ materially from these statements, so please refer to our 10-K for 2020 and other public documents for information on potential risks.

正如簡報第一張投影片中所指出的，我們的討論將包含非公認會計原則措施，這些措施在新聞稿、投資者補充資料和有關好事達營運的前瞻性聲明中進行了調節。 Allstate 的結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，因此請參閱我們的 2020 年 10-K 和其他公開文件，以了解有關潛在風險的資訊。

And now I'll turn it over to Tom.

現在我將把它交給湯姆。

Well, good morning, and thank you for investing your time with us today.

嗯，早上好，感謝您今天花時間與我們在一起。

Let's start on Slide 2. So this is Allstate's strategy on the left-hand side, which we've talked about before. We have 2 components: increase personal property-liability market share and expand the protection solution. Those are the 2 ovals you see on the left with the intersection between them. The key third quarter results are highlighted on the right-hand panel. Property-Liability policies in force increased by 12.5%. Allstate Protection Plans continue to grow rapidly by both broadening its product offering and expanding the network of retail providers. As a result, we now have almost 192 million policies in force across the enterprise.

讓我們從幻燈片 2 開始。這就是 Allstate 在左側的策略，我們之前已經討論過。我們有兩個組成部分：增加個人財產責任市場份額和擴大保護解決方案。這些是您在左側看到的兩個橢圓形以及它們之間的交叉點。第三季的關鍵業績在右側面板上突出顯示。有效的財產負債保單增加了 12.5%。好事達保險計劃透過擴大產品範圍和擴大零售提供者網路繼續快速成長。因此，我們現在在整個企業內實施了近 1.92 億份保單。

Financially, the results were more mixed. Revenues were up substantially, but net income and adjusted net income declined from the prior year quarter. Underwriting income declined primarily due to higher loss costs in settling auto insurance claims. We've implemented price increases to proactively respond to the sharp rise in loss cost, and Transformative Growth continues to position us for long-term success, both of which we'll talk about in a couple of minutes. This was partially offset by the benefits from our long-term risk and return programs that include significant reinsurance recoverables. They were primarily related to Hurricane Ida, and a substantial increase in performance-based investment income.

在財務方面，結果更為複雜。收入大幅成長，但淨利潤和調整後淨利潤較去年同期下降。承保收入下降主要是由於解決汽車保險索賠的損失成本上升。我們實施了提價措施，以主動應對損失成本的急劇上升，而變革性成長繼續為我們奠定長期成功的基礎，我們將在幾分鐘內討論這兩點。這部分被我們的長期風險和回報計劃的收益所抵消，其中包括大量的再保險可收回金額。它們主要與颶風艾達以及基於績效的投資收益大幅增加有關。

Capital deployment results were excellent, with $1.5 billion of cash returned to shareholders in the quarter. We also completed the divestitures of our 2 largest life and annuity businesses, one in October and then one just earlier this week.

資本部署結果非常出色，本季向股東返還了 15 億美元現金。我們還完成了兩家最大的人壽和年金業務的剝離，一項是在 10 月份，另一項是在本週早些時候。

So let's go to Slide 3. Revenues of $12.5 billion in the quarter increased 16.9% compared to the prior year quarter, and that reflects both the higher earned (inaudible) National General acquisition, Allstate brand, homeowners premium growth and higher net investment income. Property-Liability premiums and policies in force increased 13.5% and 12.5%, respectively.

讓我們看幻燈片3。本季的收入為125 億美元，與去年同期相比增長了16.9%，反映出更高的收入（聽不清）National General 收購、Allstate 品牌、房主保費增長和更高的淨投資收入。財產責任保費和有效保單分別增加 13.5% 和 12.5%。

Net investment income was $764 million, and that's up almost about $300 million compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting strong results from the performance-based portfolio. Net income was $508 million in the quarter, and that's compared to $1 billion in the prior quarter as lower underwriting income was partially offset by the higher investment income. Adjusted net income was $217 million or $0.73 per diluted share, and it's decreased [$683] million compared to the prior year quarter, reflecting the lower underwriting due to the higher auto and homeowners insurance loss costs. Net income for the first 9 months of 2021 was below the prior year, and that's largely due to the loss on the sale of the life annuity business, which we reported earlier in the year. Adjusted net income was $10.70 per share for the first 9 months, and that was above the prior year as higher investment income and lower expenses (technical difficulty) more than offset higher loss costs.

淨投資收入為 7.64 億美元，與去年同期相比增加了近 3 億美元左右，反映出基於績效的投資組合的強勁業績。本季淨利潤為 5.08 億美元，而上一季的淨利潤為 10 億美元，因為較低的承保收入被較高的投資收入部分抵消。調整後淨利潤為 2.17 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.73 美元，與去年同期相比減少了 [6.83 億美元]，反映出汽車和房屋保險損失成本增加導致承保減少。 2021 年前 9 個月的淨利潤低於上一年，這主要是由於我們在今年稍早報告的出售人壽年金業務的損失。前 9 個月調整後淨利為每股 10.70 美元，高於去年同期，因為較高的投資收入和較低的費用（技術難度）足以抵消較高的損失成本。

Let's turn to Slide 4. What I would do is put the pandemic in a longitudinal perspective because this created volatility for our results, and it obviously requires us to adapt quickly, which we do. But before we go through the impact on the third quarter results of the supply chain disruption, let's talk about the initial and subsequent impact of the pandemic. So in 2020, the economic lockdown resulted in fewer miles being driven and promoted -- and prompted an aggressive economic support response from, really, governments around the world. The impact on auto insurance was a dramatic drop in the number of accidents. And of course, due to this unprecedented driver in frequency, we proactively provided our customers with some money back, which increased customer retention.

讓我們轉向投影片 4。我要做的是從縱向角度來看待這場流行病，因為這會為我們的結果帶來波動，而且顯然需要我們快速適應，而我們確實這麼做了。但在我們討論供應鏈中斷對第三季業績的影響之前，讓我們先談談這場流行病的最初和後續影響。因此，到 2020 年，經濟封鎖導致駕駛和促銷里程減少，並促使世界各國政府做出積極的經濟支持反應。汽車保險的影響是事故數量急劇下降。當然，由於這種前所未有的頻率驅動因素，我們主動向客戶提供了一些退款，從而提高了客戶保留率。

Since then, since there was less road congestion and fewer accidents that occurred during commuting hours, the average speed and severity of auto claims increased, offsetting some of the frequency benefit. Nevertheless, underwriting margins improved dramatically, so we introduced a temporary Shelter-in-Place payback rather than take a permanent rate reduction and took some modest overall reductions in rate levels.

從那時起，由於道路擁堵減少，通勤期間發生的事故減少，汽車索賠的平均速度和嚴重程度增加，抵消了部分頻率帶來的好處。儘管如此，承保利潤率大幅提高，因此我們引入了臨時的就地避難投資回報，而不是永久降低費率，並在總體上適度降低了費率水準。

This year, as you can see from the right-hand column, the story has been just the opposite as it relates to frequency with large percentage increases. And while the overall level of accident frequency for the Allstate brand is still below prepandemic levels, the national and general nonstandard business is back to the levels before the pandemic. Auto severity this year, however, has been dramatically impacted by the supply chain disruption, and price increases on used cars and original equipment parts, and Mario will take you through that in a couple of slides.

今年，正如您從右欄中看到的那樣，情況恰恰相反，因為它與大幅增加的頻率有關。儘管好事達品牌的事故頻率總體水平仍低於疫情前的水平，但全國和整體非標準業務已恢復到疫情前的水平。然而，今年的汽車嚴重程度受到供應鏈中斷以及二手車和原始設備零件價格上漲的巨大影響，馬裡奧將在幾張幻燈片中帶您了解這一點。

From a pricing perspective, this results in moving from modest rate reductions to significant increases in auto insurance prices. From a growth standpoint, at the onset of the pandemic, we began to see a material increase in the consumer acceptance telematics, and we've really leaned into that with our Milewise product, which is really the only national product out there to pay for the mile, and that's led to substantial increase in our telematics product.

從定價角度來看，這導致汽車保險價格從適度降低費率轉向大幅上漲。從成長的角度來看，在疫情開始時，我們開始看到消費者對遠端資訊處理的接受度大幅增加，我們的 Milewise 產品確實傾向於這一點，這實際上是唯一需要付費的全國性產品英里，這導致我們的遠端資訊處理產品大幅增加。

Now the pandemic has also had a significant impact on the investment portfolio, and this is the tale of the beginning and the end as well. So early in the crisis, equity valuations were down, and this had a negative impact on investment results. Then, of course, on -- and we have a broad-based long-term spread out over a decade really investing in these kinds of funds. And so we do it on a long-term basis, whether that's 3, 5 or 10 years. But -- so what's happened this year, of course, is we've had the opposite happen, which is with the economic stimulus, we've had equity valuations going up, and our returns have come back strongly.

現在疫情也對投資組合產生了重大影響，這也是故事的開始和結束。因此，在危機初期，股票估值下降，對投資結果產生了負面影響。然後，當然，我們有一個十年來真正投資於此類基金的基礎廣泛的長期投資。因此，我們會長期這樣做，無論是 3 年、5 年或 10 年。但是，今年發生的情況當然是相反的情況，即在經濟刺激下，我們的股票估值上升，我們的回報也強勁回升。

In the market-based portfolio, lower interest rates at the onset of this pandemic did lead to an increase in the unrealized gains in the portfolio. But of course, what that does is reduce future interest rate income, which you see slight decline in this quarter. And many of our other businesses have been impacted some positively, some negatively, but it's our ability to adapt and seize the opportunities that are presented that create shareholder value.

在以市場為基礎的投資組合中，疫情爆發時的較低利率確實導致了投資組合中未實現收益的增加。但當然，這會減少未來的利率收入，您會看到本季略有下降。我們的許多其他業務都受到了一些積極的影響，一些消極的影響，但我們適應和抓住機會的能力創造了股東價值。

So Mario will now go through the third quarter results in more detail and how Transformative Growth positions of Allstate for continued success.

因此，馬裡奧現在將更詳細地介紹第三季的業績，以及好事達的轉型成長如何定位以持續取得成功。

Thanks, Tom. Let's move to Slide 5 to review Property-Liability margin results in the third quarter. The recorded combined ratio of 105.3 increased 13.7 points compared to the prior year quarter. This was primarily driven by increased underlying losses as well as higher catastrophe losses and non catastrophe prior year reserve reestimates. The chart at the bottom of the slide quantifies the impact of each component in the third quarter compared to the prior year quarter.

謝謝，湯姆。讓我們轉到投影片 5，回顧第三季的財產負債利潤率結果。綜合成本率為 105.3，與去年同期相比增加了 13.7 個點。這主要是由於基本損失增加以及巨災損失和上一年非巨災準備金重新估計增加所致。幻燈片底部的圖表量化了第三季度每個組成部分與去年同期相比的影響。

As you can see, the personal auto underlying loss ratio drove most of the increase due to higher auto accident frequency and the inflationary impacts on auto severity. Higher catastrophe losses shown in the middle of the chart had a negative 1.4 point impact on the combined ratio as favorable reserve reestimates recorded in 2020 from wildfire subrogation settlements positively impacted the prior year quarter.

正如您所看到的，由於車禍頻率較高以及通貨膨脹對汽車嚴重程度的影響，個人汽車基本損失率推動了大部分成長。圖表中間顯示的較高災難損失對綜合比率產生了 1.4 個百分點的負面影響，因為 2020 年野火代位解決方案記錄的有利儲備重新估計對去年同期產生了積極影響。

Gross catastrophe losses were higher but were reduced by nearly $1 billion of net reinsurance recoveries following Hurricane Ida, demonstrating the benefits of our long-term approach to risk and return management of the homeowners insurance business and our comprehensive reinsurance program.

颶風艾達後，巨災損失總額有所增加，但再保險追償淨額減少了近10 億美元，這證明了我們對房主保險業務的風險和回報管理的長期方法以及我們全面的再保險計劃的好處。

Noncatastrophe prior year reserve strengthening of $162 million in the quarter drove an adverse impact of 0.8 points primarily from increases in auto and commercial lines. This also included $111 million of strengthening in the quarter related to asbestos, environmental and other reserves in the runoff Property-Liability segment following our annual comprehensive reserve review. This was partially offset by a lower expense ratio when excluding the impact of amortization of purchased intangibles primarily due to lower restructuring and related charges compared to the prior year quarter.

本季非災難性準備金增加 1.62 億美元，造成 0.8 個百分點的不利影響，主要來自汽車和商業險種的增加。這也包括在我們的年度全面儲備審查之後，本季與徑流財產負債部分的石棉、環境和其他儲備相關的 1.11 億美元的強化。當排除購買無形資產攤銷的影響時，這被較低的費用比率部分抵消，這主要是由於與去年同期相比重組和相關費用較低。

Moving to Slide 6. Let's go a bit deeper on auto insurance profitability. Allstate brand auto insurance underlying combined ratio finished at 97.5 for the quarter and 89.7 over the first 9 months of 2021. The increase to the prior year quarter reflects higher loss cost due to higher accident frequency, increased severity and competitive pricing enhancements implemented in late 2020 and earlier this year. While claim frequency increased relative to prior year, we continue to experience favorable trends relative to prepandemic levels. Allstate brand auto property damage frequency increased 16.6% compared to 2020 but decreased 16.8% relative to 2019.

轉到投影片 6。讓我們更深入地了解汽車保險的獲利能力。 Allstate 品牌車險基礎綜合成本率本季為97.5，2021 年前9 個月為89.7。與去年同期相比的成長反映了由於事故頻率增加、嚴重性增加以及2020 年底實施的競爭性定價增強導致損失成本增加以及今年早些時候。雖然索賠頻率相對於前一年有所增加，但與大流行前的水平相比，我們繼續經歷有利的趨勢。好事達品牌汽車財產損失頻率較 2020 年增加 16.6%，但較 2019 年下降 16.8%。

The chart on the lower left compares the underlying combined ratio for the third quarter of 2019 to this quarter to remove some of the short-term pandemic volatility. The underlying combined ratio was 93.1 in 2019, which generates an attractive return on capital. Favorable auto frequency in the third quarter of 2021 lowered the combined ratio by 6.4 points compared to 2019.

左下圖比較了 2019 年第三季與本季的基本綜合成本率，以消除一些短期的疫情波動。 2019 年的基本綜合成本率為 93.1，資本回報率頗具吸引力。 2021 年第三季有利的汽車頻率使綜合成本率較 2019 年下降 6.4 個百分點。

Increased auto claim severity, however, increased the combined ratio by 12 points versus 2 years ago, as you can see from the red bar. The cost reductions implemented as part of Transformative Growth reduced expenses by 1.3 points, which favorably impacted 2021 results. As Tom mentioned, early in the pandemic, the severity increases were driven by higher average losses due to a reduction in low severity claims. This year, the increase reflects the impact of supply chain disruptions in the auto markets, which has increased used car prices and enabled original equipment manufacturers to significantly increase part prices.

然而，汽車索賠嚴重性的提高使得綜合比率比 2 年前增加了 12 個百分點，如紅色條所示。作為轉型成長的一部分實施的成本削減使開支減少了 1.3 個百分點，這對 2021 年的業績產生了有利的影響。正如湯姆所提到的，在大流行初期，嚴重程度的增加是由於低嚴重程度索賠的減少導致平均損失增加所致。今年的上漲反映了汽車市場供應鏈中斷的影響，這導致二手車價格上漲，並使原始設備製造商大幅提高零件價格。

The chart on the lower right shows used car values began increasing above the CPI in late 2020, which accelerated in 2021, resulting in an increase of 44% since the beginning of 2019. Similarly, OEM parts have also increased in 2021, roughly twice as much as core CPI. This has resulted in higher severities for both total loss vehicles and repairable vehicles.

右下圖顯示，二手車價值從2020 年底開始成長至高於CPI，並在2021 年加速成長，自2019 年初以來成長了44%。同樣，OEM 零件在2021 年也有所成長，大約是2021 年的兩倍與核心 CPI 相當。這導致全損車輛和可修復車輛的嚴重程度更高。

Since these increases were accelerating throughout the second and third quarters of the year, we increased expected loss costs for the first 2 quarters of 2021, and this prior quarter strengthening shows up in the combined ratio for the third quarter. Increases in report year severities for auto insurance claims during the first 2 quarters of 2021 increased the third quarter combined ratio by 2.6 points, as you can see by the green bar on the lower left.

由於這些成長在今年第二和第三季加速，因此我們提高了 2021 年前兩季的預期損失成本，而上一季的增強體現在第三季的綜合比率。 2021 年前 2 季報告年度汽車保險索賠嚴重程度的增加使第三季綜合成本率增加了 2.6 個百分點，如左下角的綠色條所示。

So let's flip to Slide 7, which lays out the steps we're taking to improve auto profitability. As you can see from the chart on the top, Allstate has maintained industry-leading auto insurance margins over a long period of time, with a combined ratio operating range in the mid-90s, exhibiting strong execution and operational expertise.

讓我們翻到幻燈片 7，其中列出了我們為提高汽車盈利能力而採取的步驟。從上圖可以看出，好事達長期維持業界領先的車險利潤率，綜合成本率經營範圍在90年代中期，展現出強大的執行力和營運專業知識。

To maintain industry-leading results, we are increasing rates, improving claims effectiveness and continuing the lower costs. After lowering prices in early 2021 to reflect in part Allstate's lower expense ratio, we have proactively been responding with increases in the third quarter, with actions continuing into the fourth quarter and into 2022.

為了保持業界領先的業績，我們正在提高費率、提高索賠效率並持續降低成本。在 2021 年初降低價格以部分反映好事達較低的費用率後，我們一直在第三季度積極響應漲價，並將行動持續到第四季度和 2022 年。

The chart on the right provides selected rate increases already implemented in the third and fourth quarter as well as publicly filed rates that have yet to be implemented in the fourth quarter. Those states denoted with the caret are top 10 states in terms of written premium as of year-end 2020. In the third quarter, we've received rate approvals for increases in 12 states, primarily in September. We adapted quickly to higher severities in the fourth quarter, with plans to file rates in an additional 20 states. We have already implemented rate increases in 8 states during the fourth quarter, with an average increase of 6.7% as of November 1. Looking ahead, we expect to pursue price increases in an additional 12 locations by year-end.

右圖提供了第三和第四季已實施的選定加息，以及第四季度尚未實施的公開提交的加息。截至 2020 年底，標有脫字符號的州是承保保費排名前 10 的州。第三季度，我們收到了 12 個州（主要是在 9 月份）提高費率的批准。我們在第四季度迅速適應了更高的嚴重程度，並計劃在另外 20 個州提交費率。第四季我們已經在 8 個州實施了升息，截至 11 月 1 日平均漲幅為 6.7%。展望未來，我們預計到年底將在另外 12 個州實施加價。

We are working closely with state regulators to provide detailed support and decrease the lag time between filing, implementation and premium generation. As we move into next year, it is likely auto insurance prices will continue to be increased to reflect higher severities. We also continue to leverage advanced claims capabilities and process efficiencies. Cost reductions as part of Transformative Growth will also continue to be implemented.

我們正在與州監管機構密切合作，提供詳細的支持，並縮短申請、實施和保費產生之間的延遲。進入明年，汽車保險價格可能會繼續上漲，以反映更高的嚴重程度。我們也繼續利用先進的索賠能力和流程效率。作為轉型成長一部分的成本削減也將繼續實施。

Let's turn to Slide 8 and discuss our expectations and commitment to further improve our cost structure through Transformative Growth. As you can see by the chart on the bottom of the slide, we've defined a new non-GAAP measure this quarter referred to as the adjusted expense ratio. This starts with our underwriting expense ratio, excluding restructuring, coronavirus-related expenses, amortization and impairment of purchased intangibles and investments in advertising. It then also adds in our claim expense ratio, excluding costs associated with settling catastrophe claims, which tend to be more variable. We believe this measure provides the best insight into the underlying expense trends within our Property-Liability business.

讓我們轉向投影片 8，討論我們對透過轉型成長進一步改善成本結構的期望和承諾。正如您從投影片底部的圖表中看到的那樣，我們在本季度定義了一項新的非公認會計準則衡量標準，稱為調整後費用率。首先是我們的承保費用率，不包括重組、與冠狀病毒相關的費用、購買無形資產的攤銷和減值以及廣告投資。然後，它還增加了我們的索賠費用率，不包括與解決災難索賠相關的成本，這些成本往往更具可變性。我們相信，這項指標可以最好地洞察我們的財產負債業務的潛在費用趨勢。

Through innovation and strong execution, we achieved 2.6 points of improvement when comparing 2020 to 2018, with further improvement occurring through the first 9 months of 2021. Over time, we expect to drive an additional 3 points of improvement from current levels, achieving an adjusted expense ratio of approximately 23 by year-end 2024. This represents about a 6-point reduction relative to 2018 or an average of 1 point per year over 6 years, enabling an improved price position relative to our competitors while maintaining attractive returns.

透過創新和強有力的執行，我們與2020 年和2018 年相比實現了2.6 個百分點的改進，並在2021 年前9 個月內取得了進一步的改進。隨著時間的推移，我們預計將在在目前水準上再推動3 個百分點的改進，實現調整後的目標到2024 年底，費用比率約為23。這意味著相對2018 年大約降低6 個百分點，或者在6 年內平均每年降低1 個百分點，從而使我們相對於競爭對手的價格地位得到改善，同時保持有吸引力的回報。

Future cost reductions center around continued digital enhancements to automate processes, enabling the retirement of legacy technology, operating efficiency gains from combining organization -- combining organizations and transforming the distribution model to higher growth and lower costs.

未來成本降低的重點是持續數位化增強流程自動化，從而淘汰傳統技術，透過合併組織來提高營運效率——合併組織並將分銷模式轉變為更高的成長和更低的成本。

Transitioning to Slide 9, let's go up a level to show how Transformative Growth positions us for long-term success and how the components of Transformative Growth work together to create a flywheel of profitable growth. As you know, Transformative Growth is a multiyear initiative to increase personal Property-Liability market share by building a low-cost digital insurer with broad distribution. This will be accomplished by improving customer value, expanding customer access, increasing sophistication and investment in customer acquisition and deploying a new technology ecosystem. We've made significant progress to date across each component.

轉到投影片 9，讓我們更上一層樓來展示變革性成長如何幫助我們取得長期成功，以及變革性成長的各個組成部分如何共同創造利潤成長的飛輪。如您所知，轉型成長是一項多年計劃，旨在透過建立具有廣泛分銷能力的低成本數位保險公司來增加個人財產責任市場份額。這將透過提高客戶價值、擴大客戶訪問範圍、提高客戶獲取的複雜性和投資以及部署新技術生態系統來實現。迄今為止，我們在每個組件上都取得了重大進展。

Starting at the top of the flywheel visual, our commitment to further lower our costs, improves customer value and enables a more competitive price position while maintaining attractive returns. Enhancing and expanding distribution puts us in a position to take advantage of more affordable pricing. Increasing the analytical sophistication of new customer acquisitions lets consumers know about this better value proposition. New technology platforms, lower costs and enable us to further broaden the solutions offered to property liability customers. This flywheel will enable us to increase market share and create additional shareholder value.

從飛輪視覺的頂部開始，我們致力於進一步降低成本，提高客戶價值並實現更具競爭力的價格地位，同時保持有吸引力的回報。加強和擴大分銷使我們能夠利用更實惠的價格。提高新客戶獲取分析的複雜度可以讓消費者了解這種更好的價值主張。新技術平台降低了成本，使我們能夠進一步拓寬為財產責任客戶提供的解決方案。這個飛輪將使我們能夠增加市場份額並創造額外的股東價值。

Turning to Slide 10. Let's look at the changes to the distribution system, which are also underway. As you can see in the chart on the left side of the slide, Property-Liability policies in force grew by 12.5% compared to the prior year quarter. National General, which includes Encompass, contributed growth of 4 million policies, and Allstate brand Property-Liability policies increased by 231,000 driven by growth across personal lines. Allstate brand auto policies in force increased slightly compared to the prior year quarter and sequentially for the third consecutive quarter, including growth of 142,000 policies compared to prior year-end, as you can see by the table on the lower left.

轉向投影片 10。讓我們來看看分配系統的變化，這些變化也在進行中。正如您在投影片左側的圖表中看到的那樣，有效的財產責任保單與去年同期相比增長了 12.5%。包括 Encompass 在內的 National General 貢獻了 400 萬份保單的成長，Allstate 品牌財產責任保單在個人險種增長的推動下增加了 231,000 份。有效的 Allstate 品牌汽車保單與去年同期相比略有增加，連續第三個季度環比略有增加，其中與去年年底相比增加了 142,000 份保單，如左下表所示。

The chart on the right shows a breakdown of personal auto new issued applications compared to the prior year. (technical difficulty) [38%] increase in the direct channel more than offset a slight decline from existing agents and volume that would have normally been generated by newly appointed agents. As you know, we've significantly reduced the number of new Allstate agents being appointed beginning in early 2020 since we are developing a new agent model to drive higher growth at lower cost. The addition of National General also added 502,000 new auto applications in the quarter.

右圖顯示了與前一年相比個人汽車新簽發申請的細目。 （技術難度）[38%] 直接通路的成長足以抵銷現有代理商和新指定代理商通常產生的交易量的輕微下降。如您所知，我們從 2020 年初開始大幅減少了任命的新 Allstate 代理商數量，因為我們正在開發新的代理商模式，以更低的成本推動更高的成長。 National General的加入也使該季度新增了502,000份汽車申請。

Let me now turn it over to Mark to cover the remainder of the slides before we move to Q&A.

現在讓我把它交給馬克來介紹幻燈片的其餘部分，然後再進行問答。

Thanks, Mario. Moving to Slide 11. Protection Services continues to grow revenue and profit. Revenues, excluding the impact of realized gains and losses, increased 23.3% to $597 million in the third quarter. Protection Plans and net written premium increased by $139 million due to the launch of the Home Depot relationship focusing on appliances. Our quarterly net written premium is now 5.5x the level of when the company was acquired in 2017.

謝謝，馬裡奧。轉到投影片 11。保護服務收入和利潤持續成長。剔除已實現損益的影響，第三季營收成長 23.3%，達到 5.97 億美元。由於推出專注於家電的家得寶關係，保障計劃和淨承保保費增加了 1.39 億美元。目前，我們的季度淨承保保費是 2017 年公司被收購時的 5.5 倍。

Arity expanded revenues due to the integration of LeadCloud and Transparent.ly, which were acquired as part of the National General acquisition as well as increased device sales driven by growth in the Milewise products. Policies in force increased 12.5% to 150 million driven by growth in Allstate Protection Plans and Allstate Identity Protection. Adjusted net income was $45 million in the third quarter, representing an increase of $5 million compared to the prior year quarter driven by higher profitability at Allstate Identity Protection and Arity. This was partially offset by higher operating costs and expenses related to investments in growth.

由於 LeadCloud 和透明.ly 的整合（作為 National General 收購的一部分）以及 Milewise 產品成長推動的設備銷售增加，Arity 擴大了收入。由於 Allstate 保護計劃和 Allstate 身分保護的增長，有效保單增加了 12.5%，達到 1.5 億。第三季調整後淨利為 4,500 萬美元，比去年同期增加 500 萬美元，這得益於 Allstate Identity Protection 和 Arity 獲利能力的提高。這被與成長投資相關的營運成本和費用增加部分抵消。

Now let's shift to Slide 12, which highlights our investment performance. Net investment income totaled $764 million in the quarter, which was $300 million above the prior year quarter, driven by higher performance-based income, as shown in the chart on the left. Performance-based income totaled $437 million in the quarter, as shown in gray, reflecting increases in private equity investments.

現在讓我們轉向幻燈片 12，它突出顯示了我們的投資績效。如左圖所示，受績效收入提高的推動，本季淨投資收入總計 7.64 億美元，比去年同期高出 3 億美元。本季基於績效的收入總計 4.37 億美元（如灰色所示），反映了私募股權投資的增加。

As in prior quarters, several large idiosyncratic contributors had a meaningful impact on our results. These results represent a long-term and broad approach to growth investing, with nearly 90% of year-to-date performance-based income coming from assets with inception years of 2018 and prior.

與前幾季一樣，幾個大的特殊貢獻者對我們的結果產生了有意義的影響。這些結果代表了一種長期而廣泛的成長投資方法，年初至今近 90% 的基於績效的收入來自 2018 年及之前成立年份的資產。

Market-based income, shown in blue, was $6 million below the prior year quarter. The impact of reinvestment rates below the average interest-bearing portfolio yield was somewhat mitigated in the quarter by higher average assets under management and prepayment fee income.

基於市場的收入（以藍色顯示）比去年同期低 600 萬美元。再投資率低於平均計息投資組合收益率的影響在本季因平均管理資產和預付款費用收入的增加而有所緩解。

Our total portfolio return was 1% in the third quarter and 3.3% year-to-date, reflecting income and changes in equity valuations, partially offset by higher interest rates. We take an active approach to optimizing our returns per unit risk for appropriate investment horizons. Our investment activities are integrated into our overall enterprise risk and return process and play an important role in generating shareholder value.

我們第三季的投資組合總回報率為 1%，今年迄今為 3.3%，反映了收入和股票估值的變化，但部分被較高的利率所抵消。我們採取積極的方法來優化單位風險回報，以實現適當的投資期間。我們的投資活動融入了整體企業風險和回報流程，在創造股東價值方面發揮重要作用。

While the performance-based investment results continue to be strong in the third quarter, we manage the portfolio with a longer-term view on returns. On the right, we have provided our annualized portfolio return in total and by strategy over various time horizons.

雖然第三季基於績效的投資表現持續強勁，但我們以更長遠的回報視角來管理投資組合。在右側，我們提供了不同時間範圍內按策略劃分的年化投資組合總回報。

Consistent with broader public and private equity markets, our portfolio has experienced returns above our historical trend over the last several quarters. While prospective returns will depend on future economic and market conditions, we do expect our performance-based returns to moderate in line with our longer-term results.

與更廣泛的公共和私募股權市場一致，我們的投資組合在過去幾季的回報率高於歷史趨勢。雖然預期回報將取決於未來的經濟和市場狀況，但我們確實預期基於業績的回報將與我們的長期業績保持一致。

Now let's move to Slide 13, which highlights Allstate's strong capital position. Allstate's balance sheet strength and excellent cash flow generation provides strong cash returns to shareholders while investing in growth. Significant cash returns to shareholders, including $1.5 billion through a combination of share repurchases and common stock dividends, occurred during the third quarter. Common shares outstanding have been reduced by 5% over the last 12 months.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 13，其中突出顯示了 Allstate 強大的資本狀況。好事達的資產負債表實力和出色的現金流生成為股東提供了強勁的現金回報，同時投資於成長。第三季為股東帶來了可觀的現金回報，包括透過股票回購和普通股股息相結合獲得的 15 億美元現金回報。過去 12 個月，已發行普通股減少了 5%。

Already in the fourth quarter, we successfully completed the acquisition of SafeAuto on October 1 for $262 million to leverage National General's integration capabilities and further increased personal lines market share. We also recently closed on the divestitures of Allstate Life Insurance Company and Allstate Life Insurance Company in New York. These divestitures free up approximately $1.7 billion of deployable capital, which was factored into the $5 billion share repurchase program currently being executed.

早在第四季度，我們就於 10 月 1 日以 2.62 億美元成功完成了對 SafeAuto 的收購，以利用 National General 的整合能力並進一步增加個人線路市場份額。我們最近也完成了對 Allstate Life Insurance Company 和紐約 Allstate Life Insurance Company 的剝離。這些資產剝離釋放了約 17 億美元的可動用資本，這些資本已計入目前正在執行的 50 億美元股票回購計畫中。

Turning to Slide 14. Let's finish with a longer-term view of Allstate's focus on execution, innovation and sustainable value creation. Allstate has an excellent track record of serving customers, earning attractive returns on risks and delivering for shareholders, as you can see by the industry-leading statistics on the upper right.

轉向投影片 14。最後，讓我們從長遠角度來看待好事達對執行、創新和永續價值創造的關注。好事達在服務客戶、賺取有吸引力的風險回報以及為股東提供服務方面擁有出色的記錄，正如您可以從右上角的行業領先統計數據中看到的那樣。

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Innovation is also critical to the execution, and our proactive implementation of Transformative Growth has positioned us well to address the macroeconomic challenges facing our business today and in the future. Sustainable value creation also requires excellent capital management and governance.

創新對於執行也至關重要，我們積極實施變革性成長，使我們能夠很好地應對我們業務當前和未來面臨的宏觀經濟挑戰。永續的價值創造也需要優秀的資本管理和治理。

As an example, Allstate is in the top 15% of S&P 500 companies and cash returns to shareholders by providing an attractive dividend and repurchasing 25% and 50% of outstanding shares over the last 5 and 10 years, respectively. Execution, innovation and long-term value creation will continue to drive increased shareholder value.

例如，Allstate 在過去 5 年和 10 年中透過提供有吸引力的股息並分別回購 25% 和 50% 的流通股，躋身標準普爾 500 強公司和股東現金回報前 15% 之列。執行力、創新和長期價值創造將繼續推動股東價值的增加。

With that context, let's open the line for your questions.

有了這樣的背景，讓我們開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Josh Shanker from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

I want to talk about bundles and homeowners and the pricing of the dual engine of homeowners and auto together. I guess there's 2 things I want to understand. One is when a customer sees their overall bundled price going up, what is the conversation like, especially as you're trying to more centralize your business with a greater direct relationship with your customers? And two, given Allstate's geographic footprint, can Allstate add incoming customers for homeowners without changing the cat footprint?

我想談談捆綁和房主以及房主和汽車雙引擎的定價。我想我想了解兩件事。一是當客戶看到他們的整體捆綁價格上漲時，對話是什麼樣的，特別是當您試圖透過與客戶建立更直接的關係來更加集中您的業務時？第二，考慮到好事達的地理足跡，好事達能否在不改變貓足跡的情況下為房主增加傳入客戶？

Josh, this is Tom. I'll start and then Glenn can jump in. First, as you know, we've long been focused on bundling auto and homeowners because those are good, stable, long-term customers. You do get a discount for putting those 2 together. So there's an advantage to the customer from buying it and putting it all in one place besides just having one point of contact. And we've been good at that.

喬什，這是湯姆。我先開始，然後格倫可以插話。首先，如你所知，我們長期以來一直專注於將汽車和房主捆綁在一起，因為他們是良好、穩定、長期的客戶。將這兩者放在一起確實可以獲得折扣。因此，除了只有一個聯繫點之外，購買產品並將其全部放在一個地方對客戶來說是一個優勢。我們在這方面一直很擅長。

If you look at our growth in homeowners this year, it's higher than our growth in auto insurance, and that appears to be because we are doing more bundling of individual customers. It's a little hard to get the exact attribution, but we feel good about what our agents are doing to drive that.

如果你看看我們今年房主的成長，你會發現它高於我們汽車保險的成長，這似乎是因為我們對個人客戶進行了更多的捆綁。要獲得準確的歸因有點困難，但我們對我們的代理人為推動這一目標所做的努力感到滿意。

As it relates to the growth of it, we've been -- we repositioned this business over multiple years back in the middle -- late 2000 -- the first decade of 2000. We've made, of course, a bunch of money since over the last 8 or 9 years, I think almost $9 billion of underwriting income on homeowners, which you need to do because we don't believe that a 4-point margin is attractive on homeowners for a couple of reasons. One is you don't get much investment income. Secondly, you got to put in more capital because the results are more volatile, and you have the big tail losses. So as we seek to grow it, we bring all of that math to bear on individual states is where we grow. And so if there's a state where -- even if there's a fair amount of catastrophe exposure, but we think we can get a good return that's got a margin on it that compensates us for the capital we have to put up and the reinsurance we have to buy, then we'll do that. And we're highly sophisticated in the way we run it. So the geographic focus is really we have a much a highly sophisticated model and do it.

因為它與它的成長有關，我們在2000年中期、2000年末、2000年的第一個十年裡，多年來一直在重新定位這項業務。當然，我們賺了很多錢在過去的八、九年裡，我認為房主的承保收入接近90 億美元，這是你需要做的，因為我們認為4 點的利潤率對房主沒有吸引力，原因有幾個。一是你沒有獲得太多的投資收益。其次，你必須投入更多資金，因為結果波動更大，而且尾部損失很大。因此，當我們尋求發展它時，我們將所有的數學知識應用於我們發展的各州。因此，如果有一個州——即使有相當多的災難風險，但我們認為我們可以獲得良好的回報，並且有一定的利潤來補償我們必須投入的資本和我們擁有的再保險購買，然後我們就這樣做。我們的營運方式非常複雜。因此，地理重點實際上是我們擁有一個非常複雜的模型並且正在實施。

On the direct business, you don't sell as much direct homeowners right now. We still need to crack the code on that. Before I -- Glenn will have some view on how we can continue to run the table in homeowners as we have so far, but the -- an upcoming thing that Glenn might want to touch on is what we're doing in the independent agent channel because of -- the National General platform gives us with our products, our expertise, our pricing, our claims management and our reinsurance programs gives us the ability to really serve a lot of customers.

在直接業務方面，您現在出售的直接房主數量並不多。我們仍然需要破解其中的密碼。在我之前，格倫將對我們如何繼續在房主中運行表格提出一些看法，就像我們迄今為止所做的那樣，但是格倫可能想談的即將發生的事情是我們在獨立代理中所做的事情管道，因為——全國通用平台為我們提供了我們的產品、我們的專業知識、我們的定價、我們的索賠管理和我們的再保險計劃，使我們能夠真正為大量客戶提供服務。

Glenn, where would you go with that?

格倫，你會去哪裡？

Yes. I just want to say, can you address retention and cat footprint as well?

是的。我只是想說，你能解決保留和貓足跡問題嗎？

Yes. Glenn, why don't you take both of those?

是的。格倫，你為什麼不把這兩樣都拿走？

Sure. So a few comments on homeowners leading into it, but we have a really strong homeowners business. And so we want to grow it, and we want to bundle it, as Tom said. So over the course of the past year, we've deepened bundling discounts. So we've made it more attractive for customers across 30 states. We've shifted our agency competition over the last couple of years to where it's more attractive for them to bundle, and the same is true in direct. As Tom said, we're looking to crack the code and write more there. We're writing some want to write more. And so some of the incentives for our direct team are around cross quoting and bundling.

當然。關於房主的一些評論導致了這一點，但我們擁有非常強大的房主業務。所以我們想要種植它，我們想要捆綁它，正如湯姆所說。因此，在過去的一年裡，我們加深了捆綁折扣。因此，我們讓它對 30 個州的客戶更具吸引力。在過去的幾年裡，我們已經將我們的代理競爭轉向了對他們更有吸引力的捆綁競爭，直接競爭也是如此。正如湯姆所說，我們正在尋求破解程式碼並在那裡編寫更多內容。我們正在寫一些還想寫更多。因此，對我們直接團隊的一些激勵措施是圍繞交叉引用和捆綁。

To the point around cat footprint, we're in good shape. Like if you look at our ability to write business, we can write it pretty broadly. We can write in some cat-prone areas, but we tend to offset it and create the diversity of our book by writing in other areas. I mean, right now, we're on a 12-month view right now. We're at 93.8 combined ratio, made about $400 million underwriting profit in the last 12 months in spite of having some really big cat quarters. So it's a good business that we're able to consistently make money in. And so we're looking to grow it. But as Tom said, we have pretty stringent guidelines of where we write, how we write so that we don't overgrow in cat-prone areas, but we're able to grow without that.

就貓足跡而言，我們的狀況良好。就像如果你看看我們寫業務的能力一樣，我們可以寫得相當廣泛。我們可以在一些貓多發的領域進行寫作，但我們傾向於透過在其他領域進行寫作來抵消它並創造我們的書的多樣性。我的意思是，現在我們的觀點是 12 個月。我們的綜合比率為 93.8，儘管有一些非常大的季度，但在過去 12 個月中仍獲得了約 4 億美元的承保利潤。所以這是一個很好的業務，我們能夠持續賺錢。所以我們正在尋求發展它。但正如湯姆所說，我們對寫作地點、寫作方式有相當嚴格的指導方針，這樣我們就不會在貓多發的地區過度生長，但即使沒有這些，我們也能成長。

And Tom mentioned something that I want to come back to in terms of the breadth of our distribution and growing, and that would be into our IA channel. The IA channel is a huge opportunity. Independent agents were in a lot of homeowners, and our National General and Allstate company as it will be branded is adding our middle market products, both auto and home, and we have sort of a whole new greenfield there to run in, and that would be a broad geographic spread, not just in cat-prone areas.

湯姆提到了我想回到我們的分銷和成長廣度方面的一些事情，那就是我們的 IA 管道。 IA 頻道是一個巨大的機會。許多房主都有獨立代理商，我們的國家通用和好事達公司將添加我們的中間市場產品，包括汽車和家居產品，我們在那裡有一個全新的綠地可以運行，這將地理分佈廣泛，而不僅僅是貓多發地區。

Josh, let me just add something because I think I understand why you're trying to triangulate between sort of what's going on in the industry. First, we don't have a catastrophe exposure problem. We don't have a profitability problem, we believe, in homeowners. I mean we only made about -- we lost about [$16] million on $7.3 billion so far this year. So we'd like to make more money. But as Glenn pointed out, when you look over a longer period of time -- we've had a fair amount of ups and downs, but we still made underwriting profit on a sort of 12-month basis. So we don't have a catastrophe problem. So we don't have to restrict stuff and end up with what you're poking at is retention issues.

喬什，讓我補充一些內容，因為我想我理解為什麼你要嘗試對行業中正在發生的事情進行三角測量。首先，我們不存在災難暴露問題。我們相信，對於房主來說，我們不存在獲利問題。我的意思是，今年到目前為止，我們只損失了 73 億美元，損失了約 1,600 萬美元。所以我們想賺更多的錢。但正如 Glenn 指出的，當你看更長的一段時間時，我們經歷了相當多的起伏，但我們仍然在 12 個月的基礎上獲得了承保利潤。所以我們不存在災難問題。因此，我們不必限制某些內容，而最終會遇到您所關注的保留問題。

We have been there and done that, though. So -- and it was called the repositioning we did in the latter part of the decade I mentioned. And when you call a customer and say, I used to have -- used to be insured with us, and now I'm not going to share you with us -- and we're one of the biggest brokers of homeowners insurance product, I think, in the country, maybe (inaudible) through our advantage. And even when you say to people, here's another company, it has some impact on your auto business so -- because people are like, well, I'll take my business someplace else or competitors decide they want to bundle and they'll go get those customers as well. So we had some issues with auto growth when we were downsizing.

不過，我們已經做到了這一點。所以——這就是我們在我提到的十年後半段所做的重新定位。當你打電話給客戶並說，我曾經 - 曾經在我們這裡投保，現在我不會與我們分享你 - 我們是最大的房主保險產品經紀人之一，我認為，在國內，也許（聽不見清）透過我們的優勢。即使你對人們說，這是另一家公司，它也會對你的汽車業務產生一些影響，因為人們會說，好吧，我會把我的業務帶到其他地方，或者競爭對手決定他們想要捆綁，他們就會去也獲得這些客戶。因此，當我們縮小規模時，我們在汽車成長方面遇到了一些問題。

We went down by 2 million policies in the homeowners business over a 4-5-year period. So it does hurt. It's manageable. I can't speak for what our competitors are going to do. What I do know is what Glenn said, which is we've got a good business. We know how to run it. We have growth opportunities, and we're looking forward to serving more customers and make more money for our shareholders along the way.

在 4-5 年間，我們的房屋所有權業務減少了 200 萬份保單。所以它確實很痛。這是可以管理的。我無法說出我們的競爭對手將要做什麼。我所知道的是格倫所說的，那就是我們的生意很好。我們知道如何運行它。我們有成長機會，我們期待為更多的客戶服務，並為我們的股東賺更多的錢。

Our next question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自雷蒙德詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 的格雷格彼得斯 (Greg Peters)。

I'd like to turn your attention to Page 7, and I was particularly struck by your chart where you've identified the rate increases you've deployed and then one's that you're going to be implementing. And I was wondering if you could provide us some perspective on -- given the fact that severity has been so substantial, where you think that's going to go with other states? It feels like this is going to be an ongoing reset of pricing as we go through most of next year. And against that backdrop, just how you think about your competitive positioning when most of the industry is going to be raising rates?

我想請您注意第 7 頁，我對您的圖表印象特別深刻，其中您確定了已部署的費率增加，然後是您將要實施的費率增加。我想知道您是否可以向我們提供一些觀點——考慮到疫情的嚴重性如此之大，您認為其他州的情況會如何？感覺就像我們在明年的大部分時間裡，這將是一次持續的定價重置。在此背景下，當大多數行業都將升息時，您如何看待自己的競爭定位？

Let me start and then, Glenn, why don't you jump in on what you're doing individually? So I think you're right, Greg, that there seems to be this -- a threat going through the markets today that this is kind of a once and done. And we don't necessarily see it that way. I mean I think there's -- I'm never bold enough to decide in claims we're ahead of anybody else because, first, that assumes everybody is in the same place. Exactly I assume the same trends are going to happen them. And third is that those trends are going to end. And the answer is we don't know when they will do. What we do know is what we can do differently. And we do know that some of our competitors had frequency increases sooner than we did so that you would expect them to raise prices sooner than we did.

讓我開始吧，格倫，為什麼不加入你個人正在做的事情呢？所以我認為你是對的，格雷格，似乎存在著這樣一種威脅——今天的市場正在面臨這樣的威脅，這就是一勞永逸的事情。我們不一定這麼看。我的意思是，我認為——我從來沒有足夠的勇氣斷言我們領先於其他任何人，因為首先，這假設每個人都處於同一位置。我確實認為他們也會發生同樣的趨勢。第三，這些趨勢即將結束。答案是我們不知道他們什麼時候會這樣做。我們所知道的是我們可以採取不同的做法。我們確實知道，我們的一些競爭對手比我們更早增加頻率，因此您會期望他們會比我們更早提高價格。

We do think that we have a good plan in place, and Glenn can take you through that, which is to make sure we get attractive returns in auto insurance, which is a key component of what we do in terms of delivering value for shareholders, and we're all over that, and we will go -- we're -- how that will move forward in terms of competitive position, that's also hard to tell. What I do know is that I'm really glad we started Transformative Growth 2 years ago. And so the cost reductions we already have in place certainly have benefited us. It's positioned us to be able to grow through many different venues, so we can dial a growth up if we choose to do that. So I'm really glad we are where we are, and we're positioned to take share in the future, which is, of course, our strategy, but we want to do that profitably.

我們確實認為我們已經制定了一個很好的計劃，格倫可以引導您完成該計劃，即確保我們在汽車保險方面獲得有吸引力的回報，這是我們為股東創造價值的關鍵組成部分，我們已經解決了這個問題，我們將如何在競爭地位方面取得進展，這也很難說。我所知道的是，我真的很高興我們在兩年前開始轉型成長。因此，我們已經實施的成本削減無疑地使我們受益。它使我們能夠在許多不同的場所成長，因此如果我們選擇這樣做，我們就可以加速成長。所以我真的很高興我們現在所處的位置，並且我們有能力在未來分享，這當然是我們的策略，但我們希望這樣做能夠獲利。

Glenn, do you want to talk about your plans getting the auto insurance returns back where they have been historically?

格倫，您想談談您將汽車保險回報恢復到歷史水平的計劃嗎？

Yes. Absolutely. So -- thanks, Greg, and you get a couple of important points that you're right about that everyone or close to everyone is going to have to take rate when you talk about competitive position. So we think about that as part of the process. But this is broad and this is going to be around for a while. Like everything you look at in terms of what the root cause is of severity, which is in its simplest terms, is the price of used cars. I'd like to talk about collision coverage as if the coverage that doesn't really have a policy limit that's stated other than the value of the vehicle itself. So in real terms, our policy limit on that coverage went up by 40-plus percent with no change in premium. And that experience happened to everybody across the industry. So it's a rarity where you have something is clear and clean as that, that is a root cause to your severity changes. So we think it'll be around for a bit, and we're going after rate to address that as one of the levers, and we've talked about our claims capabilities and certainly our expense reductions as other ones.

是的。絕對地。所以——謝謝，格雷格，你得到了幾個重要的觀點，你是對的，當你談論競爭地位時，每個人或接近每個人都必須採取率。因此，我們將其視為流程的一部分。但這是廣泛的，並且會持續一段時間。就像你所看到的一切，從根本原因的嚴重程度來看，最簡單地說，就是二手車的價格。我想談論碰撞保險，就好像保險除了車輛本身的價值之外並沒有真正規定的保單限制一樣。因此，以實際價值計算，我們的保單限額提高了 40% 以上，而保費沒有變化。這種經歷發生在整個行業的每個人身上。因此，很少有東西是清晰和乾淨的，因為這是嚴重性變化的根本原因。所以我們認為它會存在一段時間，我們正在追求利率來解決這個問題，作為槓桿之一，我們已經討論了我們的索賠能力，當然還有我們與其他方面一樣的費用削減。

So in the third quarter, we took 12 price increases that went effective in the third quarter, another 8 in the fourth quarter so far, with more to come. So this is broad, and we'll be doing it just about everywhere. And I think the key from a competitive position is that we made a lot of progress. So our starting point, we made significant progress over the last year with the expenses we've taken out. And therefore, the competitive position we were in improved significantly. Our close rates improved significantly, leading to some of the greater new business that you saw.

因此，在第三季度，我們進行了 12 次漲價，並在第三季度生效，第四季度到目前為止還有 8 次漲價，而且還會有更多漲價。所以這是廣泛的，我們將在幾乎所有地方這樣做。我認為從競爭地位來看，關鍵在於我們已經取得了巨大的進步。因此，我們的起點是，去年我們在支出方面取得了重大進展。因此，我們的競爭地位顯著提高。我們的成交率顯著提高，帶來了一些您看到的更大的新業務。

And so as we take rates, and others do, it's our goal is certainly to keep that competitive position gain that we've made, but the primary goal is to get our margins back to where they need to be, and that's why we're going after rate, and we're doing it pretty proactively.

因此，當我們和其他人一樣採取利率時，我們的目標當然是保持我們已經取得的競爭地位，但首要目標是讓我們的利潤回到需要的水平，這就是我們的原因。我們正在追求利率，而且我們正在非常積極地做到這一點。

Great. I wanted to pivot to Slide 8, which is, I think, another really important slide in your presentation, and just to step back and recognize the long-term objective that you've introduced is pretty striking. I feel like when we get to 2024, if you've achieved that objective, that will put you clearly among the leaders in terms of lowest adjusted expense ratio in the marketplace. So I'm sure a lot of thought went into this. Can you give us some more color on where the improvement -- where you're going to get the most leverage in terms of the expense ratio improvements, where it's going to come from? And then I'll -- maybe also include some comments on the advertising expense because that's not included in this.

偉大的。我想轉向投影片 8，我認為這是您簡報中另一張非常重要的投影片，只是退後一步並認識到您引入的長期目標非常引人注目。我覺得，當我們到 2024 年時，如果您實現了這一目標，那麼您將在市場調整後費用比率最低方面躋身領先者之列。所以我確信對此進行了很多思考。您能否給我們更多關於改進的地方——在費用比率改進方面您將在哪裡獲得最大的影響力，它來自哪裡？然後我可能也會對廣告費用發表一些評論，因為這不包括在其中。

Mario, do you want to start with the components of the cost reduction? And then I'll come back to advertising spend?

馬裡奧，你想從降低成本的組成部分開始嗎？然後我會回到廣告支出？

Sure. So Greg, thanks for the question and the acknowledgment of the progress we've made. I guess where I'd start is maybe to just kind of go up a level and reiterate again what our objective in reducing costs really is, which is to enhance customer value by improving our competitive price position. And we're going to do that by continuing to drive down the expense component of our combined ratio, which is inclusive of both underwriting and claim expenses.

當然。格雷格，感謝您提出問題以及對我們所取得進展的認可。我想我首先要提高一個層次，再次重申我們降低成本的真正目標，即透過提高我們的競爭性價格地位來提高客戶價值。為此，我們將繼續降低綜合成本率的費用部分，其中包括承保費用和索賠費用。

And to your point, we've made really good progress over the past several years. And in addition to the progress we've made, we've created plans and have line of sight to the additional 3-point objective that we've got by 2024 by focusing on things like digitizing processes to improve efficiency by continuing, as we do that, create opportunity to retire legacy technology to capture the synergies associated with the National General acquisition to continue to drive down distribution costs as we've talked about creating a -- kind of a more productive but lower cost distribution model. So we've got opportunity in both the -- from an operating cost perspective on both the underwriting and the claims side, and we've got a plan on how to get there. And that's why we established the goal. And we think once we can get the additional 3 points out of our cost structure, it's really going to position us well relative to our competitors to have a more competitive price point, to deliver higher customer value and really position ourselves to accelerate growth.

就您而言，我們在過去幾年中取得了非常好的進展。除了我們取得的進展之外，我們還制定了計劃，並著眼於 2024 年實現的額外 3 點目標，重點關注數位化流程等事情，以繼續提高效率，因為我們做到這一點，創造機會淘汰遺留技術，以獲取與國家通用收購相關的協同效應，繼續降低分銷成本，正如我們談到的那樣，創建一種生產力更高但成本更低的分銷模式。因此，從承保和索賠方面的營運成本角度來看，我們在這兩個方面都有機會，並且我們已經制定瞭如何實現這一目標的計劃。這就是我們設定目標的原因。我們認為，一旦我們能夠從成本結構中獲得額外的3 個百分點，相對於競爭對手，我們確實會處於有利地位，從而擁有更具競爭力的價格點，提供更高的客戶價值，並真正為我們加速成長做好準備。

So let me go to advertising, then let me, Greg, start with we didn't do Transformative Growth because of the pandemic. But boy, I'm sure glad we got started on Transformative Growth than we did because we were able to reposition the brand. We invested over $0.25 billion in repositioning the brand, new advertising, testing out new more sophisticated ways to do it. And we did it when frequency was low. So we were able to use some of that reduction in frequency, the margin it created to invest in long-term growth by repositioning the brand.

那麼讓我來談談廣告，然後讓我，格雷格，首先我們因為大流行而沒有進行轉型成長。但是，我很高興我們開始轉型成長，因為我們能夠重新定位品牌。我們投資了超過 2.5 億美元來重新定位品牌、新廣告、測試新的更複雜的方法。我們是在頻率較低的時候才這麼做的。因此，我們能夠利用頻率的減少以及由此產生的利潤，透過重新定位品牌來投資長期成長。

When you look at Transformative Growth, it's very simple, right? You get a more competitive price. You have more places to buy it. You let people know about that's the increase in advertising that I was talking about. What we do in the future will be depending how much we want to grow. So as we move forward, I think our advertising will be flat or come down some because we want to make sure we've got the pricing right in the point that came up earlier about the longevity of the -- how long will severity keep coming up. You want to make sure you've got that pricing right before you go out and get that flywheel going by doing more advertising.

當你看到變革性成長時，它非常簡單，對吧？您將獲得更具競爭力的價格。你還有更多地方可以買到。你讓人們知道這就是我所說的廣告的增加。我們未來做什麼將取決於我們想要成長多少。因此，隨著我們向前邁進，我認為我們的廣告將會持平或有所下降，因為我們希望確保我們的定價正確，符合之前提到的關於嚴重程度會持續多久的問題。向上。您需要確保在出去之前就已經掌握了正確的定價，並透過做更多廣告來讓飛輪運轉。

That said, we're always going to do a lot of advertising because, as you know, it is a marketing war, really, out there between some of the large players. But the other part that's not as well known is it's getting every bit as sophisticated as auto insurance and home pricing. So you've really got to be good with your math on that. And whether it's upper front or lower front, or getting the right price to the right customer at the right time in the right space is -- it's complicated.

也就是說，我們總是會做大量廣告，因為如你所知，這實際上是一些大型企業之間的行銷戰。但另一部分則不太為人所知的是，它正變得像汽車保險和房屋定價一樣複雜。所以你真的必須擅長這方面的數學。無論是前上方或前下方，或是在正確的時間、正確的空間向正確的客戶提供正確的價格，這都很複雜。

And so the other thing we've been working on is building out the sophistication so that every dollar of advertising investment we spend is well done. The reason we took it out of the expense ratio guidance was because it is more volatile and it'll depend on what kind of growth we're looking to achieve in that quarter. And this is a measure of really how effectively you running the business. Like how are you keeping your costs down for your customers so you can have that competitive price.

因此，我們一直在努力的另一件事是增強複雜性，以便我們花費的每一美元廣告投資都得到充分利用。我們將其從費用比率指導中剔除的原因是，它的波動性更大，並將取決於我們希望在該季度實現什麼樣的成長。這是衡量您經營業務的真正效率的指標。例如您如何為客戶降低成本，以便獲得具有競爭力的價格。

Our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的愛麗絲·格林斯潘。

My first question was on the growth in new business that you guys saw in direct in the quarter. I know from commentary, you guys started to take place during the quarter and then more is on the comp, but I'm just a little bit surprised with the level of growth you saw there just given the increase in the loss trend that you're mentioning. Can you just expand upon that? And would you expect the new business growth on the direct side to slow as you kind of push for additional rate through the system?

我的第一個問題是關於你們在本季直接看到的新業務的成長。我從評論中知道，你們在本季度開始發生，然後更多的是在比較中，但我對你們看到的增長水平感到有點驚訝，因為你們的損失趨勢有所增加。重新提及。您能對此進行擴充嗎？隨著您透過系統推動額外費率，您是否預計直接方面的新業務成長會放緩？

Elyse, let me give that to Glenn and just -- but Glenn and his team have done a fabulous job in getting us better at direct. So some of the growth that you see is because of the advertising we talked about. Some of the growth you see is we're just getting a lot better at it. And so once we put the Allstate brand on it, and Glenn started to combine our capabilities, we just -- we're getting much more effective at what we closed on the web, what we closed in the call center.

Elyse，讓我把這個轉告給 Glenn，但 Glenn 和他的團隊在讓我們在直接方面做得更好方面做得非常出色。所以你看到的一些成長是由於我們談到的廣告。你看到的一些成長是我們在這方面做得更好了。因此，一旦我們將 Allstate 品牌放在上面，格倫開始整合我們的能力，我們就可以更有效地處理我們在網路上關閉的內容、我們在呼叫中心關閉的內容。

Glenn, do you want to talk about the prospects for direct?

格倫，你想談談直接的前景嗎？

Yes. Yes, I agree with everything Tom just said. I think we've got really nice prospects because I would say we're making up ground in (inaudible) because we have -- what, we're 20 years newer at doing direct of the Allstate brand than some of our competitors, but we're making up chunks of that capability as we move just 1.5 years into launching with Allstate brand in direct. So the effectiveness of our sales, whether it be our call centers or on the web, it's better. Our marketing sophistication, our partnership with marketing, all of those things getting better, and that helps move it up.

是的。是的，我同意湯姆剛才所說的一切。我認為我們的前景非常好，因為我想說我們正在（聽不清楚）取得進展，因為我們——什麼，我們在直接經營 Allstate 品牌方面比我們的一些競爭對手晚了 20 年，但在我們直接在推出Allstate 品牌僅1.5 年之際，我們正在彌補這一能力的大部分。所以我們的銷售效率，無論是我們的呼叫中心還是網路上，都更好。我們的行銷成熟度、我們與行銷的合作關係，所有這些事情都在變得更好，這有助於推動它的發展。

The other thing is, actually, in this price environment that's going to be disrupted, we're likely to see some tailwind in new business but some headwinds in retention because if we were in a situation where we're the only ones taking rate, you might expect the opposite. But with a whole bunch of people having to take rate, that will create a lot of shoppers. It'll create shoppers of our own, too, because it disrupts our own customers. And when people shop, they often find a better price or situation even in a rising environment like this. So there will be a lot of customers shopping ours and other companies. And so it's an opportunity, as Tom said, to leverage what we did and say we're really happy with the Transformative Growth than we did because we have more ways for customers to buy when that disruptive market happens.

另一件事是，實際上，在這種即將被擾亂的價格環境中，我們可能會在新業務中看到一些順風，但在保留方面會遇到一些逆風，因為如果我們處於唯一收取利率的情況下，你可能會想到相反的情況。但由於一大群人必須接受費率，這將創造大量購物者。它也會創造我們自己的購物者，因為它擾亂了我們自己的客戶。當人們購物時，即使在這樣的上漲環境下，他們也經常會找到更好的價格或情況。所以會有很多顧客購買我們和其他公司的產品。因此，正如湯姆所說，這是一個機會，可以利用我們所做的事情，並表示我們對轉型成長感到非常滿意，因為當顛覆性市場發生時，我們有更多方式供客戶購買。

And then my second question, just in terms of rate, I believe the majority of your auto policies are 6 months. So correct me if I'm wrong there. But as we think about the rate going to the system, what you've done in the third quarter, the fourth quarter and expectations for next year, how long do you think it will take to get back to your target margins? Is this kind of a 6- to 12-month situation? I know you don't have specific target margins for Property-Liability, we've kind of gone to an overall ROE. But when you think about just putting your margins kind of at an acceptable level, would you think that, that would come over the next 6 to 12 months? Or can you give us a time range there?

然後我的第二個問題，就費率而言，我相信你們的大多數汽車保單都是 6 個月。所以如果我錯了請糾正我。但是，當我們考慮系統的利率、您在第三季、第四季所做的事情以及對明年的預期時，您認為需要多長時間才能恢復到目標利潤率？這種情況是6到12個月的情況嗎？我知道你們沒有針對財產負債設定具體的目標利潤率，我們已經考慮了整體股本報酬率。但是，當您考慮將利潤率調整到可接受的水平時，您是否認為這會在未來 6 到 12 個月內實現？或者你能給我們一個時間範圍嗎？

I don't think you can do a time range on it because I don't think we can predict what's going to happen in the future on the inflationary pressures. So what we can do is say we're going to go at this aggressively. As soon as we can get there, that will be when we like we're going to hustle (inaudible) where, as he said, his priority is auto insurance margins on that part of the business. We've got lots of other priorities we're looking at.

我認為你無法確定一個時間範圍，因為我認為我們無法預測未來通膨壓力會發生什麼。所以我們能做的就是說我們將積極採取行動。一旦我們能夠到達那裡，我們就會全力以赴（聽不清楚），正如他所說，他的首要任務是這部分業務的汽車保險利潤。我們還有很多其他優先事項正在考慮中。

But when you look at inflation, I'm not in the camp that the inflationary that like used car prices are suddenly going to go back down. I think you buy a car for $14,000, it used to cost you $10,000, like you're not thinking it's worth $10,000 no matter what the Fed and everybody else thinks about it being transitory. I think the same thing is true with when you look at parts prices. Parts prices, it's not like the oil market where prices are -- the system is built to go up and down every day. It gets embedded in there. The dealers buy inventory. People, distributors buy inventory. They price it. So we don't really see that being transitory and coming down.

但當你看看通貨膨脹時，我並不認為像二手車價格這樣的通貨膨脹會突然回落。我認為你花 14,000 美元買一輛汽車，它過去要花 10,000 美元，就像你不認為它值 10,000 美元，無論美聯儲和其他人如何認為它是暫時的。我認為當您查看零件價格時也是如此。零件價格，與石油市場的價格不同——該系統的建構是為了每天上漲和下跌。它被嵌入那裡。經銷商購買庫存。人們、經銷商購買庫存。他們定價。所以我們並沒有真正看到這種情況是暫時的並且會下降。

How long it will take to work all the way through the system, what opportunities the OEs will take to push prices further up is really unknown at this part. So it's hard to determine when it will cross. What you do know is, Elyse, that top line is going to keep going up as long as we see movement in the bottom line, and it'll keep going up until the bottom line plans out that make the bottom line being loss cost. And that top line then we'll keep going past that point in time until we get back to the margins. But when we get back to the same underwriting margin on, let's call it, a dollar basis or a percentage basis on auto insurance, you can't really predict until you can have a better handle on where frequency and severity is going to shake out.

整個系統需要多長時間才能完成工作，營運商將利用什麼機會進一步推高價格，目前還不得而知。所以很難確定它什麼時候會穿越。你所知道的是，Elyse，只要我們看到利潤發生變化，頂線就會繼續上升，並且它會繼續上升，直到底線計劃出來，使底線成為損失成本。然後我們將繼續越過該時間點，直到我們回到邊緣。但是，當我們回到相同的承保利潤（我們稱之為汽車保險的美元基礎或百分比基礎）時，您無法真正預測，直到您能夠更好地掌握頻率和嚴重程度將在哪裡發生變化。

Glenn, anything you would add to that?

格倫，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. No, the only thing I would add would be that the tactical answer on the rates, because completely agree, and we don't know what the bottom line will do exactly. So we'll have to keep moving those and adjust. But the tactical answer on the rates, you're correct, Elyse, it's 6 months in almost all of our states and all of our policies. So it's about 6 months from the effective date to get all customers paying that and then another 6 months from the point they start paying it to where the full premium has been earned for 1 policy period. So you really start to see the effect of the rates starting at the beginning of the year but more impactfully in the second and third quarters of next year.

是的。不，我唯一要補充的是關於利率的戰術答案，因為完全同意，而且我們不知道底線到底會做什麼。所以我們必須繼續移動這些並進行調整。但關於利率的戰術答案，你是對的，Elyse，我們幾乎所有的州和我們所有的政策都是 6 個月。因此，從生效之日起大約需要 6 個月的時間才能讓所有客戶支付保險費，然後從他們開始支付保險費到在 1 個保單期內賺取全額保費還需要 6 個月的時間。因此，您確實從年初開始看到利率的影響，但在明年第二季和第三季影響更大。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Phillips from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的邁克爾·菲利普斯。

I think Glenn answered this question, but I just want to be sure. Going to ask first quarter, second quarter, you were taking some targeted rate cuts, and now you're not. And I think Glenn said the rate increases that are going to continue are going to be I think you said just about everywhere. So I want to confirm that because, I guess, the question would be, how much of an overlap would there be in states where you took previous rate cuts -- pretty recent rate cuts and now moving upward in those same states? Is there overlap there in those states? I'm asking because of what that means to consumer impact on maybe retentions, seeing gyrations down the back up again. And then also kind of if there is an overlap there, kind of what it means for something that Tom said and make sure we have pricing right to kind of confidence around the current rates?

我認為格倫回答了這個問題，但我只是想確定一下。問問第一季、第二季度，你們採取了一些有針對性的降息，但現在卻沒有。我認為格倫說過，我想你說的幾乎所有地方都會繼續升息。所以我想確認這一點，因為我想問題是，在你之前降息的州——最近降息並且現在在這些州上調利率——會有多少重疊？這些州有重疊嗎？我問這個問題是因為這對消費者可能會產生什麼影響，例如保留率，又會再次出現回落。然後，如果存在重疊，這對湯姆所說的事情意味著什麼，並確保我們對當前利率有正確的定價信心？

Glenn, do you want to take that?

格倫，你想接受這個嗎？

Sure. So the short answer to your question would be, yes, there will be increases in places where there were modest decreases. I do think we waited a little while to really see what was happening with the frequency and ensure that it was long-standing, and it has remained a long-standing benefit before taking them. And we were modest in it. We've done some pretty significant givebacks in the shelter-in-place givebacks, which were onetime in that sort of durable discount. Actually changing rates and moving them down, we were more subtle with and more modest with. So I don't think people will see sort of a wild swing down and back up, but they will see it in same states.

當然。因此，對你的問題的簡短回答是，是的，在適度減少的地方將會增加。我確實認為我們等了一會兒才真正了解頻率發生了什麼，並確保它是長期存在的，並且在服用它們之前它仍然是一個長期的好處。我們對此很謙虛。我們在就地避難所的回饋活動中做了一些相當重要的回饋活動，這曾經是那種持久折扣的一部分。實際上改變利率並降低利率，我們更加微妙和更加謙虛。因此，我認為人們不會看到某種劇烈的上下波動，但他們會在相同的州看到這種情況。

And the simple fact is, as you saw on the chart, I believe, is on Page 7, that the used car prices spiked dramatically in the second quarter. And those sites and then people start having claims, and then those claims start to be paid and working their way into the loss cost, and you have this hyperinflationary environment on auto physical damage lines. So it's just the appropriate response at the appropriate time for it, and we'll do everything we can to maintain our retention. It's one of the wonderful things -- one of the many wonderful things about our agency force. Our agency force do a really good job of building relationships and talking to customers through changes in their policies and helping us through things like this.

簡單的事實是，正如您在第 7 頁的圖表中看到的那樣，二手車價格在第二季急劇飆升。這些網站和人們開始提出索賠，然後這些索賠開始得到支付並逐漸計入損失成本，汽車物理損壞線上就出現了這種惡性通貨膨脹的環境。因此，這只是在適當的時間做出適當的反應，我們將盡一切努力來維持我們的保留。這是奇妙的事情之一——我們代理商的眾多奇妙的事情之一。我們的代理商在建立關係、透過政策變更與客戶交談以及幫助我們解決此類問題方面做得非常好。

Okay. The second question, kind of a different one then on Arity. I guess I'm curious, how you think about Arity? Do you think of it as either, a, more of a use it for our own pricing and telematics business or that plus kind of formed it off to others and having it more of a income-generating machine? It's still not giving you a lot of lift on that second piece. But do you think of it more that way longer term? We've seen more and more companies kind of go that route, and you're about the only one that isn't that go the route of farming that business off. I mean [Hartford] just announced it recently when they formed it off, and more and more companies are doing that. So how do you think about Arity? Is it more just for your own pricing? Or do you want to have it be more of a, again, income-generating machine as well?

好的。第二個問題與 Arity 上的問題有點不同。我想我很好奇，你如何看待 Arity？您是否認為它更多地用於我們自己的定價和遠端資訊處理業務，或者將其形成為其他人並使其更多地成為創收機器？它仍然沒有為你第二塊帶來很大的提升。但你是否會從長遠角度來考慮？我們已經看到越來越多的公司走這條路，而您是唯一一家沒有走這條路的公司。我的意思是，[哈特福德]最近在成立時剛剛宣布了這一消息，越來越多的公司正在這樣做。那麼您如何看待Arity？是否更適合您自己的定價？或者你想讓它再次成為創收機器嗎？

Michael, thank you for asking about something other than auto insurance margin because we have a lot of good things going in one, which is Arity, which is significant value has been created with Arity, both in the insurance business and outside the insurance business. And I don't think that's been reviewed by any analysts as if it was a separate company. I mean we have 600 billion miles of data. We were a risk score in operation. We help people do marketing more effectively and efficiently. And so we're really building quite a platform that will do a number of things. One is it does exactly what you talked about, which is in the way we started, it was telematics as a service for us. We needed somebody to collect the data. We needed to get a mobile app up. We need to put it in files and be able to do something with it. And so rather than do that inside the insurance company, we decided to do it outside the insurance company because we said this is -- at the point we said, this is basically a service that other insurance companies will need, and we can provide it to them. And we do. So Arity provides that service to some other insurance companies, and we're working to try to expand that effort for them. But it moved beyond what I would just call telematics as a service, help me pull data and figure out what my customers are doing, too.

邁克爾，謝謝你詢問汽車保險保證金以外的問題，因為我們有很多好的事情要做，那就是 Arity，Arity 在保險業務和保險業務之外都創造了巨大的價值。我認為沒有任何分析師將其視為一家獨立的公司。我的意思是我們有 6000 億英里的數據。我們在操作中進行了風險評分。我們幫助人們更有效、更有效率地進行行銷。因此，我們確實正在建立一個可以做很多事情的平台。一是它完全按照您所說的方式進行，這就是我們開始的方式，它是為我們提供的遠端資訊處理服務。我們需要有人來收集數據。我們需要開發一個行動應用程式。我們需要將其放入文件中並能夠用它做一些事情。因此，我們決定不在保險公司內部這樣做，而是決定在保險公司外部這樣做，因為我們說這基本上是其他保險公司需要的服務，而我們可以提供它給他們。我們確實這麼做了。因此，Arity 向其他一些保險公司提供這項服務，我們正在努力為他們擴大這項服務。但它超越了我所說的遠端資訊處理服務，幫助我提取數據並弄清楚我的客戶在做什麼。

We started collecting more data from ourselves and built a rating service organization so that we can help other insurance companies use telematics to price your insurance. We believe that they're going to get that capability anyway. So we think that we might as well do it through Arity and capture additional margin rather than just assuming we can take over 100% of the insurance industry by being a leader in telematics, which we are, but we don't think we can get the entire market share. So we created a rating services organization around that. It's then been expanded to include really lead generation because we started collecting more data. So we have data from the Allstate customers. We have data because we have our SDK embedded in other people's (inaudible). And we have hard data on -- I think it's over 25 million cars we're pulling every day, really high fidelity data that's in the same format. We also buy data that we're able to combine with that 25 million on an over another 75 million cars. So we're pulling data on 100 million cars per day right now. And so we're building this rating services organization for Allstate and other insurers so that we can not only do telematics as a service, we can do -- we think we can actually work to help people prequalify buyers, and it's called the Arity IQ. So significant value has been created.

我們開始從自己那裡收集更多數據，並建立了一個評級服務組織，以便我們可以幫助其他保險公司使用遠端資訊處理為您的保險定價。我們相信他們無論如何都會獲得這種能力。因此，我們認為我們不妨透過Arity 來做到這一點並獲得額外的利潤，而不是僅僅假設我們可以透過成為遠端資訊處理領域的領導者來佔據保險業100% 以上的份額，事實上我們確實是這樣，但我們認為我們無法獲得整個市場份額。因此，我們圍繞此創建了一個評級服務組織。然後它被擴展到包括真正的潛在客戶開發，因為我們開始收集更多的數據。我們有來自好事達客戶的數據。我們擁有數據是因為我們將自己的 SDK 嵌入到其他人的 SDK 中（聽不清楚）。我們有硬數據——我認為我們每天拉動超過 2500 萬輛汽車，這些數據的保真度非常高，格式相同。我們還購買了能夠與另外超過 7500 萬輛汽車的 2500 萬輛數據相結合的數據。因此，我們現在每天提取 1 億輛汽車的數據。因此，我們正在為Allstate 和其他保險公司建立這個評級服務組織，這樣我們不僅可以將遠端資訊處理作為一種服務，我們可以做- 我們認為我們實際上可以幫助人們對購買者進行資格預審，這就是所謂的Arity IQ 。因此已經創造了巨大的價值。

I don't think that shows up in shareholder value today because I don't really see any of the analysts really looking hard and saying, what's it worth, but we think it's a substantial value, and we expect to continue to grow that business and expand its total addressable market.

我認為這並沒有體現在今天的股東價值中，因為我沒有看到任何分析師真正認真研究並說它的價值，但我們認為這是一個巨大的價值，我們希望繼續發展該業務並擴大其總目標市場。

Our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。

I just had a question on I think it was Slide 7 where you show the around 7% rate increase that you are asking for. I guess that feels high to me, just especially considering that the loss ratio, if I take out the reserve charge, was only about 1.5 points higher than the third quarter of 2019 and then also just considering the expense initiatives that you guys have taken to date. I guess my thought was -- I thought that the expense plan would maybe sort of help reduce the amount of rate that you guys would need to take. I guess is that the right way of thinking about it? Or is it just too uncertain at this time and you guys just want to get in front of what might be coming down the road in terms of future loss cost increases?

我剛剛有一個問題，我認為是幻燈片 7，其中您展示了您所要求的約 7% 的利率增長。我想這對我來說感覺很高，特別是考慮到如果我扣除準備金費用，損失率僅比 2019 年第三季度高出約 1.5 個百分點，然後還考慮到你們採取的費用舉措日期。我想我的想法是——我認為費用計劃可能有助於減少你們需要承擔的費用。我想這是正確的思考方式嗎？或者現在的情況是否太不確定，而你們只是想了解未來損失成本增加方面可能會發生的情況？

It's an accurate call out, David, that the future expense reductions will certainly help us manage profitability, but we're increasing the prices now because we do want to grow profitably. But being unclear as to where this inflation will sort out, we're being what we think is fair and appropriate as opposed to overly aggressive in increasing prices now.

大衛，這是一個準確的呼籲，未來費用的削減肯定會幫助我們管理盈利能力，但我們現在提高價格是因為我們確實希望實現盈利增長。但目前還不清楚這種通膨將在何處解決，我們正在做我們認為公平和適當的事情，而不是現在過度激進地提高價格。

As to the extent in the future, we don't need that as much, and our expenses come down, then we can improve our competitive position, which we've improved our competitive position pretty significantly in 2021. And we don't want to give that up, and we'd like to continue to improve it so we get that flywheel of growth going. But in this case, we're using the expense reductions for future competitive price improvement as opposed to saying we don't need to raise prices because loss costs are going up.

至於未來的程度，我們不需要那麼多，我們的費用下降了，那麼我們就可以提高我們的競爭地位，我們在2021年已經相當顯著地提高了我們的競爭地位。我們不希望放棄這一點，我們希望繼續改進它，以便我們讓增長的飛輪運轉起來。但在這種情況下，我們使用費用削減來提高未來的競爭性價格，而不是說我們不需要提高價格，因為損失成本正在上升。

Glenn or Mario, anything you would add to that?

格倫或馬裡奧，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

The only thing I'd add is it is pretty easy to get negative rates in approved and in market very quickly. And as we talked about in one of the prior answers, it takes time for them to earn in. So we're projecting future loss costs out over the course of the next year and years and taking rate that we think best reflects our best estimates of what we're going to need to deliver the right returns. So it would be a good situation to get into to where we were -- we slightly overshot and could dial it back. But as Tom said, there's a lot of questions still on where the severity will -- I'm sorry, the inflation to severity will end.

我唯一要補充的是，在批准和市場上很容易獲得負利率。正如我們在之前的一個答案中談到的，他們需要時間才能賺錢。因此，我們預計未來一年和幾年的未來損失成本，並採用我們認為最能反映我們最佳估計的利率我們需要什麼來提供正確的回報。因此，這將是一個很好的情況，可以回到我們現在的位置——我們稍微有點過頭了，可以把它調回來。但正如湯姆所說，關於嚴重性將在哪裡仍然存在很多問題 - 對不起，嚴重程度的通貨膨脹將會結束。

At some point, Glenn, I mean, look, we need to make money in auto insurance, and we're going to do that.

格倫，我的意思是，在某個時候，我們需要在汽車保險領域賺錢，我們就會這麼做。

I think we're out of time. So let me just say, as we move forward, you should expect us, as you've heard throughout this call, to expect to focus on improving the returns in auto insurance. At the same time, we're not letting up on any of the components of increasing our market share in personal Property-Liability or expanded circle protection, all of which we've had really good progress and success in this year and in this quarter. So you should expect us to continue to focus on a broad-based approach to increasing shareholder value.

我想我們已經沒時間了因此，我只想說，隨著我們的前進，正如您在整個電話會議中所聽到的那樣，您應該期望我們專注於提高汽車保險的回報。同時，我們不會放棄增加個人財產責任市場份額或擴大圈子保護的任何組成部分，所有這些我們在今年和本季度都取得了很好的進展和成功。因此，您應該期望我們繼續專注於採用廣泛的方法來增加股東價值。

So thank you for your engagement with us again, and we will talk to you next quarter.

感謝您再次與我們合作，我們將在下個季度與您交談。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。