Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the ADM Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on a listen-only mode to prevent background noise. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加 ADM 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。所有線路均設定為只聽模式，以防止背景噪音。謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音中。

I'd now like to introduce your host for today's call, Megan Britt, Vice President, Investor Relations for ADM. Ms. Britt, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，ADM 投資者關係副總裁梅根·布里特 (Megan Britt)。布里特女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Alex. Hello, and welcome to the third quarter earnings webcast for ADM. Starting tomorrow, a replay of this webcast will be available on our Investor Relations website.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。您好，歡迎收看 ADM 第三季財報網路廣播。從明天開始，我們的投資者關係網站將提供該網路廣播的重播。

Please turn to Slide 2. Some of our comments and materials may constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

請參閱投影片 2。我們的一些評論和資料可能構成前瞻性陳述，反映管理層對未來經濟狀況、產業狀況、公司業績和財務表現的當前觀點和估計。這些陳述和材料是基於許多存在風險和不確定性的假設和因素。

ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation. To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events.

ADM 在向 SEC 提交的報告中提供了有關可能導致實際結果與本簡報中的結果有重大差異的假設和因素的更多資​​訊。在適用法律允許的範圍內，ADM 不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

On today's webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will discuss our third quarter results and share some recent accomplishments on our strategic priorities. Our Chief Financial Officer, Vikram Luthar, will review segment level performance and provide an update on our cash generation and capital allocation actions. Juan will have some closing remarks, and then Juan and Vikram will take your questions.

在今天的網路廣播中，我們的董事長兼執行長胡安·盧西亞諾將討論我們第三季度的業績，並分享我們戰略重點方面的一些近期成就。我們的財務長維克拉姆·盧塔爾 (Vikram Luthar) 將審查部門層面的業績，並提供有關我們的現金產生和資本配置行動的最新資訊。胡安將作總結發言，然後胡安和維克拉姆將回答您的問題。

Please turn to Slide 3. I'll now turn the call over to Juan.

請翻到投影片 3。我現在將把電話轉給 Juan。

Thank you, Megan, and good morning to all who have joined for today's call. Today, ADM reported third quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.63 with an adjusted segment operating profit of $1.5 billion. Year-to-date, this equates to an adjusted earnings per share of $5.62, that would represent ADM's second best EPS year achieved in just the first 9 months and an adjusted operating profit of $4.8 billion.

謝謝梅根，也向所有參加今天電話會議的人早安。今天，ADM 報告第三季調整後每股收益為 1.63 美元，調整後部門營業利潤為 15 億美元。今年迄今為止，這相當於調整後每股收益為 5.62 美元，這意味著 ADM 在前 9 個月內實現了第二高的每股收益，調整後營業利潤為 48 億美元。

Our trailing 4-quarter average adjusted ROIC was 13.2%. This result reflects yet another strong quarter for ADM. I'm proud of the team's nimble execution against our strategic plan while adjusting our business model in light of both global macro trends and the evolving needs of our customers. The global market is increasingly dynamic with factors that create both opportunities and challenges for ADM to address.

我們過去 4 季的平均調整後投資報酬率為 13.2%。這一結果反映出 ADM 又一個強勁的季度。我為團隊靈活執行我們的策略計劃而感到自豪，同時根據全球宏觀趨勢和客戶不斷變化的需求調整我們的業務模式。全球市場日益活躍，各種因素為 ADM 帶來了機會和挑戰。

Consumer behavior has shown growing variability spending more in some categories while slowing spending in others. And our team has a proven ability to manage through this and the impact of geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures and the constantly adjusting balances of commodity supply and demand.

消費者行為表現出越來越多的變化，在某些類別上支出更多，而在其他類別上支出則放緩。事實證明，我們的團隊有能力應對這一問題以及地緣政治緊張局勢、通膨壓力和不斷調整的商品供需平衡的影響。

Within each business, we are focused on navigating these external factors carefully while we're also building on the momentum we've seen through the year-to-date. As we look ahead, we are on track to exceed our 2023 previous expectations for the total company.

在每項業務中，我們都專注於仔細應對這些外部因素，同時我們也在鞏固今年迄今所看到的勢頭。展望未來，我們預計在 2023 年超越之前對公司整體的預期。

In Ag Services and Oilseeds, we saw the accelerated energy transition support strong demand for vegetable oil, leading to a solid crush environment. We leveraged our flexible logistics footprint to manage Brazil's record crop and our global trade franchise to best match supply to demand worldwide.

在農業服務和油籽領域，我們看到能源轉型的加速支持了對植物油的強勁需求，從而形成了堅實的壓榨環境。我們利用靈活的物流足跡來管理巴西創紀錄的產量，並利用我們的全球貿易特許經營權來最好地匹配全球的供需。

In Carb Solutions, we delivered a record third quarter on the strength of solid margins in starches, sweeteners and flour as well as robust ethanol demand that help us drive strong volumes and margins.

在碳水化合物解決方案領域，我們第三季的業績創下了歷史新高，這得益於澱粉、甜味劑和麵粉的穩健利潤以及強勁的乙醇需求，幫助我們推動了強勁的銷售和利潤。

In Nutrition, Flavors growth continued to outpace the market, where we both grew and executed on our revenue opportunity pipeline. The delivery productivity and cost management actions we have taken in Animal Nutrition are enabling improved performance as we also see market volume recovery, and we continue to navigate pockets of soft demand in certain categories of the Nutrition portfolio.

在營養品方面，口味的成長持續超過市場，我們在收入機會管道上都實現了成長和執行。我們在動物營養領域採取的交付效率和成本管理行動正在改善業績，因為我們也看到市場容量的恢復，並且我們繼續應對營養產品組合某些類別的軟需求。

Next slide, please. One of ADM's greatest competitive advantage is the breadth and integration of our business model, reaching from farm to fork. 2023 has offered several examples of how we're creating new areas of growth in each business units.

請下一張投影片。 ADM 最大的競爭優勢之一是我們業務模式的廣度和整合，從農場到餐桌。 2023 年提供了幾個我們如何在每個業務部門創造新的成長領域的例子。

On the farm, ADM has one of the largest and most sophisticated global origination networks connecting with hundreds of thousand farmer partners worldwide. We have unique and deep relationships with the people and technologies that are shaping the future of agriculture. So as more of our customers are looking for traceable, sustainable crop sources in their own supply chains, we are a natural connector and influencer.

在農場，ADM 擁有最大、最複雜的全球起源網絡之一，與全球數十萬名農民合作夥伴連結。我們與塑造農業未來的人員和技術有著獨特而深厚的關係。因此，隨著越來越多的客戶在自己的供應鏈中尋找可追溯、可持續的作物來源，我們成為了天然的連結者和影響者。

We are proud to have announced partnership with PepsiCo, Nestlé and Carlsberg and have a target of 4 million regenerative acres enrolled by 2025. The carbon equivalent of powering more than 100,000 homes a year.

我們很自豪地宣布與百事可樂、雀巢和嘉士伯建立合作夥伴關係，並製定了到 2025 年再生面積達 400 萬英畝的目標。相當於每年為超過 10 萬個家庭供電的碳當量。

Moving into production. As the pace of energy transition accelerates, demand for renewable fuel sources is growing rapidly and ADM is in a leading position to capitalize on this trend. With our Spiritwood JV with Marathon currently being commissioned, we are ready to fit the production of a targeted 75 million gallons of renewable green diesel per year.

投入生產。隨著能源轉型步伐的加快，對再生燃料的需求迅速增長，ADM 在利用這一趨勢方面處於領先地位。隨著我們與 Marathon 的 Spiritwood 合資企業目前投入使用，我們已準備好實現每年 7500 萬加侖可再生綠色柴油的生產目標。

We have announced the Broadwing Energy project, delivering a lower emission power source and a critical part of lowering our carbon emissions used to power the cater operations. And we're innovating to deliver new low carbon intensity products within the fast-growing BioSolutions portfolio.

我們宣布了 Broadwing Energy 項目，該項目提供較低排放的電源，也是降低用於餐飲營運的碳排放的關鍵部分。我們正在創新，在快速成長的 BioSolutions 產品組合中提供新的低碳強度產品。

And as we connect to the consumer, we're working closely with our customers to serve the challenges of their consumers, whether it's Sustainable Solutions, the latest flavor or a cost-effective ingredient replacement, or exploring the future of nutrition through work with ADM ventures partners like Air Protein and Nourished. And we have differentiated our offerings with the next generation of evidence-based health and wellness solutions.

當我們與消費者建立聯繫時，我們與客戶密切合作，應對消費者的挑戰，無論是可持續解決方案、最新風味還是具有成本效益的成分替代品，還是透過與 ADM 合作探索營養的未來Air Protein和Nourished 等企業夥伴。我們透過下一代循證健康和保健解決方案使我們的產品脫穎而出。

With the world's largest probiotic manufacturing facility in Valencia, more than 50 clinical trials underway and a growing team of deep scientific experts, we are well positioned for the expanding demand for functional foods and personalized nutrition. And to efficiently execute on all areas of growth while maintaining an efficient cost structure, we continue to vigilantly focus on productivity as well as the culture that lets our ADM colleagues bring their best every day.

憑藉位於巴倫西亞的全球最大的益生菌生產設施、正在進行的50 多項臨床試驗以及不斷壯大的資深科學專家團隊，我們已做好充分準備，滿足對功能性食品和個性化營養不斷增長的需求。為了有效地執行所有領域的成長，同時保持高效的成本結構，我們繼續警惕地專注於生產力以及讓我們的 ADM 同事每天發揮最佳水平的文化。

Across our global organization, we're standardizing processes and systems through One ADM and modernizing our operations through digital transformation, driving greater efficiencies while enabling the best use of our workforce and production capacity. Our planned modernization program continues to deliver impressive operational benefits, including advanced analytics and safety improvements across the 17 operations facilities currently in implementation phase.

在我們的全球組織中，我們透過 One ADM 實現流程和系統標準化，並透過數位轉型實現營運現代化，提高效率，同時充分利用我們的員工隊伍和生產能力。我們計劃的現代化計劃繼續帶來令人印象深刻的營運效益，包括目前處於實施階段的 17 個營運設施的高級分析和安全改進。

With more than 70 plants in scope, the planned recurring cost savings associated with automation across our footprint in 2024 is already nearing $20 million per year. Our cultural efforts are the critical foundation for all of these strategic initiatives. We have ramped up our focus on a culture of caring, specifically in regards to the safety of our colleagues. This is our top priority, and our recent performance in this area has not live up to our expectations.

範圍內有 70 多家工廠，預計到 2024 年，我們的業務範圍內與自動化相關的經常性成本節省已接近每年 2000 萬美元。我們的文化努力是所有這些策略舉措的重要基礎。我們加強了對關懷文化的關注，特別是在同事的安全方面。這是我們的首要任務，而我們最近在這方面的表現並沒有達到我們的預期。

We are committed to taking action to improve and have already begun to do so with the assistance of both internal and external experts. We will do better. By actively managing productivity, innovation and culture and aligning work to the interconnected trends in food security, health and well-being and sustainability, ADM is well positioned for sustainable, long-term profit growth across new and adjacent avenues.

我們致力於採取行動進行改進，並且在內部和外部專家的協助下已經開始這樣做。我們會做得更好。透過積極管理生產力、創新和文化，並使工作與糧食安全、健康和福祉以及可持續發展方面相互關聯的趨勢保持一致，ADM 已做好準備，在新的和鄰近的途徑上實現可持續、長期的利潤增長。

And with a strong performance in 2023, and a constructive expectation for the remainder of the year, we are again raising our full year earnings outlook. For a deeper look at our Q3 performance, let me hand over to Vikram, who will cover results of operations.

鑑於 2023 年的強勁表現以及對今年剩餘時間的建設性預期，我們再次上調全年盈利預期。為了更深入了解我們第三季的業績，讓我將任務交給 Vikram，他將介紹營運結果。

Thank you, Juan. Please turn to Slide 5. The Ag Services and Oilseeds team once again delivered solid results in an increasingly dynamic environment by leveraging our experience, scale and integrated global footprint. Ag Services results were lower than the strong third quarter of 2022.

謝謝你，胡安。請參閱投影片 5。農業服務和油籽團隊利用我們的經驗、規模和一體化的全球足跡，在日益動態的環境中再次取得了紮實的成果。農業服務業績低於強勁的 2022 年第三季。

South American origination results were higher year-over-year as our team delivered significantly higher volumes and margins on strong export demand. Prior investments in port capabilities have enabled us to structurally grow our earnings while capitalizing on a stronger margin environment across the region.

南美原產地業績年增，因為我們的團隊在強勁的出口需求下實現了顯著更高的產量和利潤。先前對港口能力的投資使我們能夠結構性地成長我們的收入，同時利用整個地區更強勁的利潤環境。

North American results were lower year-over-year as a result of the shift of export demand to Brazil due to the large crop there as well as low water levels in the U.S. river system, limiting volume and barge capacity. Effective risk management, combined with higher volumes and margins in global trade led to strong results, however, much lower than the record quarter last year. The current quarter also included a $48 million insurance settlement related to damages from Hurricane Ida.

北美地區的業績年減，原因是出口需求轉向巴西，因為巴西產量大，而且美國河流系統水位低，限制了貨量和駁船運力。有效的風險管理，加上全球貿易量和利潤的提高，帶來了強勁的業績，但遠低於去年創紀錄的季度。本季還包括與颶風艾達造成的損失相關的 4,800 萬美元保險賠償金。

In Crushing, we delivered another strong quarter but lower than the prior year as global crush margins remained healthy, but lower than the very strong levels of a year ago. Our strong results were led by North America, as the Crush margin environment remains well supported by structurally higher demand for vegetable oils.

在壓榨方面，我們再次實現了強勁的季度業績，但低於上一年，因為全球壓榨利潤率保持健康，但低於一年前的強勁水平。我們的強勁業績由北美領銜，壓榨利潤環境仍受到植物油結構性較高需求的良好支撐。

We officially opened our new crush facility in Spiritwood, North Dakota to meet growing demand. We are currently in the commissioning process and expected to be running at full rates in early November, adding an additional 1.5 million metric tons of crush capacity per year. In EMEA, we continue to optimize our flex capacity to prioritize crush of higher-margin soft seeds in line with market opportunities. In the quarter, there were large net-positive mark-to-market timing effects which were lower than the net-positive impacts in the prior year quarter.

我們在北達科他州 Spiritwood 正式開設了新的壓榨工廠，以滿足不斷增長的需求。我們目前正處於調試過程中，預計將於 11 月初全速運行，每年額外增加 150 萬噸壓碎能力。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們持續優化我們的靈活產能，並根據市場機會優先壓榨利潤率較高的軟種子。本季，以市值計價的時機效應存在較大的淨正效應，低於去年同期的淨正效應。

Refined Products and other posted another strong quarter, higher than the prior year period. Results were led by solid volumes and margins in North America. In EMEA, robust export demand for biodiesel and domestic demand for food oil drove higher results versus the prior year. In the quarter, there were large net-positive mark-to-market timing effects, which are expected to reverse as contracts execute in future periods. Equity earnings from Wilmar was significantly lower versus the third quarter of 2022.

成品油和其他產品季度表現再次強勁，高於去年同期。北美地區的銷量和利潤率領先。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，生質柴油的強勁出口需求和國內對食用油的需求推動績效高於去年。本季度，以市值計價的時間效應出現了巨大的淨正值，預計隨著未來時期合約的執行，這種效應將會逆轉。豐益國際的股本收益顯著低於 2022 年第三季。

Looking ahead, for the fourth quarter in Ag Services and Oilseeds, we anticipate strong results that are slightly lower than last year, excluding the $110 million legal settlement in the Ag Services subsegment from the fourth quarter of 2022. We expect Ag Services results to be in line with the prior year, excluding the legal settlement. We anticipate similar year-over-year North American export volumes, a competitive South American export program and continued strong performance from global trade.

展望未來，對於農業服務和油籽業務第四季度的強勁業績，我們預計將略低於去年，不包括從2022 年第四季起農業服務細分領域1.1 億美元的法律和解金。我們預計農業服務業績將與前一年一致，不包括法律和解。我們預期北美出口量與去年同期相似，南美出口計畫具有競爭力，全球貿易將持續強勁表現。

We forecast our crushing subsegment will deliver strong results similar to the prior year. We expect robust soy and canola crush margins and with the ramping of our Spiritwood operations, higher volumes. We expect RPO to perform well but be significantly below last year as positive timing impacts from prior quarters are expected to reverse.

我們預測我們的破碎細分市場將取得與去年相似的強勁業績。我們預計大豆和油菜籽壓榨利潤將強勁，隨著我們 Spiritwood 業務的擴大，銷量將會增加。我們預計 RPO 將表現良好，但將顯著低於去年，因為前幾季的正面時間影響預計將逆轉。

Slide 6, please. Carbohydrate Solutions delivered an outstanding quarter that was significantly higher than the prior year, enabled by the ongoing optimization of our production and supply chain network. The Starches and Sweeteners subsegment were higher year-over-year on a healthy demand and strong margin environment across starches, sweeteners, wheat flour and ethanol. Our team generated new customer wins and delivered double-digit growth year-to-date in our BioSolutions platform.

請幻燈片 6。由於我們生產和供應鏈網路的持續優化，碳水化合物解決方案的季度業績表現出色，顯著高於去年同期。由於澱粉、甜味劑、小麥粉和乙醇的健康需求和強勁的利潤環境，澱粉和甜味劑細分市場較去年同期成長。我們的團隊贏得了新的客戶，並在我們的 BioSolutions 平台上實現了今年迄今為止兩位數的成長。

As Juan touched on earlier, we also signed a formal agreement with Broadwing Energy to provide lower emissions power to a Decatur facility, extending our ability to provide low carbon solutions across the value chain. In the Vantage Corn Processors subsegment, our team executed well in a strong ethanol demand and margin environment, leading to significantly higher year-over-year results.

正如胡安之前提到的，我們還與 Broadwing Energy 簽署了一份正式協議，為迪凱特工廠提供較低排放的電力，從而擴展了我們在整個價值鏈中提供低碳解決方案的能力。在 Vantage 玉米加工分部中，我們的團隊在強勁的乙醇需求和利潤環境中表現良好，導致同比業績顯著提高。

Looking ahead for the fourth quarter, we expect steady demand and margins for our starches, sweeteners and wheat flour products. We remain constructive on ethanol margins driven by solid domestic demand and healthy U.S. exports, supported by lower competing exports from Brazil due to higher sugar prices. We anticipate results to be similar to the prior year period, but with upside potential if the current ethanol margin structure holds.

展望第四季度，我們預期澱粉、甜味劑和小麥粉產品的需求和利潤將保持穩定。我們對乙醇利潤率仍持建設性態度，這主要是由於國內需求強勁和美國出口健康，加上糖價上漲導致巴西競爭性出口減少的支撐。我們預計結果將與去年同期相似，但如果目前的乙醇利潤結構保持不變，則具有上行潛力。

On Slide 7. In Nutrition, strong results in Flavors, health and wellness and recovery in the base Animal Nutrition business, were more than offset by continued lower demand for plant-based proteins and persistent demand fulfillment challenges in Pet Solutions. Flavors reported impressive results in a complex operating environment, delivering a 29% growth in operating profit on a constant currency basis. Results were led by pricing actions in EMEA and strong win rates in North America.

投影片 7 中。在營養方面，基本動物營養業務在風味、保健和恢復方面的強勁業績，被植物蛋白需求持續下降和寵物解決方案持續的需求滿足挑戰所抵消。 Flavors 在複雜的營運環境中取得了令人印象深刻的業績，以固定匯率計算，營業利潤成長了 29%。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的定價行動以及北美地區強勁的勝率引領了業績。

During the quarter, we also implemented a successful go-live of our One ADM project in the EMEA region across 18 locations in 12 countries. This represents a significant milestone as we continue to harness digital across the enterprise to drive productivity gains.

本季度，我們還在 EMEA 地區 12 個國家的 18 個地點成功上線了 One ADM 專案。這是一個重要的里程碑，我們將繼續利用整個企業的數位化來提高生產力。

In Specialty Ingredients, weak market demand, particularly in the alternate meat category, inventory adjustments and unplanned downtime resulting from the recent Decatur incident led to significantly lower year-over-year results.

在特殊配料方面，市場需求疲軟，特別是替代肉類類別，庫存調整以及最近迪凱特事件導致的計劃外停機導致業績同比大幅下降。

The plant-based protein market has been experiencing destocking and consumer demand softness over the course of the year that will likely persist into next year. Given these recent market dynamics, we have re-scoped our Decatur protein modernization investment project to better match the expected lower growth demand environment. Also, we are leveraging our expertise in creation, design and development to differentiate our product offerings to serve evolving consumer needs. These adjustments will enable a faster pivot to higher growth and more resilient categories such as specialized nutrition, which have synergies across the Nutrition portfolio, and we are rapidly building this revenue pipeline.

今年以來，植物蛋白市場一直在經歷去庫存和消費者需求疲軟的情況，這種情況可能會持續到明年。鑑於最近的市場動態，我們重新調整了迪凱特蛋白質現代化投資項目的範圍，以更好地適應預期的較低成長需求環境。此外，我們還利用我們在創作、設計和開發方面的專業知識來使我們的產品脫穎而出，以滿足不斷變化的消費者需求。這些調整將使我們能夠更快地轉向更高的成長和更具彈性的類別，例如專業營養品，這些品類在整個營養產品組合中具有協同作用，我們正在迅速建立這個收入管道。

Health and Wellness results were higher year-over-year due to double-digit biotech sales and a favorable impact related to the revised commercial agreement with Spiber. During the quarter, we realized a significant expansion in our revenue pipeline reinforcing the demand for evidence-based solutions.

由於兩位數的生物技術銷售額以及與 Spiber 修訂後的商業協議相關的有利影響，健康與保健業績同比增長。在本季度，我們實現了收入管道的顯著擴張，增強了對基於證據的解決方案的需求。

In Animal Nutrition, we are beginning to see the cost optimization actions and the expansion of offerings in the specialty feed and ingredient space from earlier this year, driving improved performance. However, the recovery in the base business was more than offset by normalized year-over-year amino acids margins as well as lower profit contribution from the Pet Solutions business.

在動物營養領域，我們從今年初開始看到成本優化行動以及特種飼料和原料領域產品的擴展，從而推動了業績的改善。然而，基礎業務的復甦被正常化的同比氨基酸利潤率以及寵物解決方案業務較低的利潤貢獻所抵消。

Looking forward, we anticipate Flavors to finish the year strong driven by growth in EMEA and North America. Health and Wellness operating profit is expected to finish similar to last year. Animal Nutrition operating profit is expected to continue to recover sequentially quarter-over-quarter. Specialty Ingredients operating profit is expected to be down significantly, impacted by the recent Decatur East incident and demand softness.

展望未來，我們預計調味品業務將在歐洲、中東和非洲和北美地區成長的推動下強勁結束這一年。健康與保健業務營業利潤預計將與去年持平。動物營養營業利潤預計將繼續較上月恢復。受最近迪凱特東事件和需求疲軟的影響，特種配料營業利潤預計將大幅下降。

All in, we now expect full year 2023 operating profit for Nutrition to be around $600 million. While our results in 2023 have been below our expectations, we expect Nutrition to return to growth in 2024.

總而言之，我們現在預計營養品業務 2023 年全年營業利潤將達到 6 億美元左右。雖然我們 2023 年的業績低於我們的預期，但我們預計營養業務將在 2024 年恢復成長。

We will continue to build on the Flavors momentum from 2023. Health and Wellness should maintain its steady performance. The cost actions in the shopper pivot to higher-margin products will enable Animal Nutrition to drive growth, further reinforced by improved go-to-market capabilities.

從 2023 年起，我們將繼續鞏固風味業務的發展勢頭。健康與保健業務應保持穩定的表現。消費者轉向高利潤產品的成本行動將使動物營養能夠推動成長，並透過提高上市能力進一步加強這一成長。

Lastly, for SI, we will work aggressively to restart operational capabilities at Decatur East to minimize the impact in 2024.

最後，對於 SI，我們將積極努力重啟迪凱特東的營運能力，以盡量減少 2024 年的影響。

Slide 8, please. Other business results were significantly higher than the prior year quarter due to improved ADM investor services earnings on higher net interest income. Captive insurance results were slightly lower on higher claim settlements partially offset by premiums from new programs. In Corporate results, net interest expense for the quarter increased year-over-year, primarily on higher short-term interest rates. Unallocated Corporate costs of $298 million were higher versus the prior year on higher global technology spend to support our digital transformation efforts.

請幻燈片 8。由於淨利息收入增加，ADM 投資者服務收入有所改善，其他業務表現顯著高於去年同期。自保保險業績略有下降，原因是索賠和解額增加，但部分被新計劃的保費所抵消。在公司業績中，本季的淨利息支出較去年同期增加，主要是由於短期利率上升。由於支持我們數位轉型工作的全球技術支出增加，未分配的企業成本比前一年增加了 2.98 億美元。

Other corporate was favorable versus the prior year primarily due to foreign currency hedges. We still forecast Corporate cost to be approximately $1.5 billion for the year. The effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2023 was approximately 20% higher than the prior year primarily due to a change in the geographic mix of earnings. For the full year, we still expect our effective tax rate to be between 16% and 19%.

其他企業的業績較上年有利，主要是由於外匯對沖。我們仍預測今年公司成本約 15 億美元。 2023 年第三季的有效稅率比前一年高出約 20%，這主要是由於收入地理結構的變化。對於全年，我們仍然預計有效稅率在 16% 至 19% 之間。

Next slide, please. Through the third quarter, we had strong operating cash flows before working capital of $3.8 billion. We continue to invest in the business, allocating $1.1 billion to capital expenditures and have returned $1.9 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. We have ample liquidity with over $13 billion of cash and available credit, and our balance sheet is very strong with an adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio of 0.9.

請下一張投影片。在整個第三季度，我們的不計營運資本的營運現金流強勁，達到 38 億美元。我們繼續投資該業務，分配 11 億美元用於資本支出，並透過股票回購和股息向股東返還 19 億美元。我們擁有充足的流動性，擁有超過 130 億美元的現金和可用信貸，而且我們的資產負債表非常強勁，調整後的淨債務與 EBITDA 槓桿率為 0.9。

Our fortress balance sheet gives us the financial flexibility to drive our long-term strategic agenda while also returning capital to shareholders and is also a competitive advantage, particularly in a higher for longer interest rate environment. We have completed $1.1 billion of share repurchases through Q3 and expect to increase the pace of repurchases in Q4. Even with the softness in Nutrition, and lower-than-expected profit contributions from Wilmar, we are raising our 2023 earnings outlook again and now anticipate full year EPS in excess of $7 per share.

我們堡壘般的資產負債表為我們提供了財務靈活性，可以推動我們的長期策略議程，同時向股東返還資本，這也是一種競爭優勢，特別是在長期利率較高的環境中。截至第三季度，我們已完成 11 億美元的股票回購，預計第四季將加快回購步伐。儘管營養品產業疲軟，豐益國際的利潤貢獻低於預期，但我們仍再次上調 2023 年獲利預期，目前預計全年每股收益將超過 7 美元。

Juan?

胡安？

Thank you, Vikram. As we close today's call, let me share a few thoughts about how we're seeing our efforts in 2023 position ADM to continue solid progression into 2024. External factors that influence ADM's forward-look are closely aligned to the enduring macro trends we have positioned ourselves to be nimble in managing. We continue to see the interconnectivity across food security, health and well-being and sustainability, having an amplifying effect across the industries we serve.

謝謝你，維克拉姆。在今天的電話會議結束之際，讓我分享一些關於我們如何看待 2023 年努力，使 ADM 能夠在 2024 年繼續穩步前進的一些想法。影響 ADM 前景的外部因素與我們所定位的持久宏觀趨勢密切相關我們自己要靈活管理。我們繼續看到糧食安全、健康和福祉以及永續發展之間的相互聯繫，對我們所服務的產業產生放大效應。

More frequent extreme weather, geopolitical events and the recent pandemic have all highlighted the criticality of food security within those geographies and for the regions that are served by their agricultural exports. Connected to this, we see areas of supply abundance growing as evidenced by Brazil's record rise in crop cycles and areas of need shifting. In some cases, this has resulted in either more domestic consumption in countries like the U.S. or elevated import demand situations where our unparalleled global asset base and deep experience are critical. Government policies beginning to support new demand patterns, whether based on a move to more renewable energy sources or an effort to increase regenerative agriculture supply.

更頻繁的極端天氣、地緣政治事件和最近的疫情都凸顯了這些地區以及農產品出口服務地區糧食安全的重要性。與此相關的是，我們看到供應充足的地區正在成長，巴西農作物週期和需求地區創紀錄的成長證明了這一點。在某些情況下，這要么導緻美國等國家的國內消費增加，要么導致進口需求增加，而我們無與倫比的全球資產基礎和豐富的經驗至關重要。政府政策開始支持新的需求模式，無論是基於轉向更多的再生能源還是努力增加再生農業供應。

Science continues to accelerate innovation in Nutrition with an ever-present consumer interest in turning their food, beverage and supplement consumption to their personal health and dietary needs. Beyond the challenges and opportunities connected to these external factors, we believe ADM is positioned to leverage productivity and innovation to build momentum in the coming year, a continuation of the strategic efforts we have been driving throughout 2023.

科學不斷加速營養領域的創新，消費者始終有興趣將食品、飲料和補充劑消費轉向個人健康和飲食需求。除了與這些外部因素相關的挑戰和機會之外，我們相信 ADM 能夠利用生產力和創新在未來一年創造動力，這是我們在 2023 年一直推動的策略努力的延續。

We anticipate Ag Services and Oilseeds continue to leverage its extended value chain and deliver structural changes to demand. We anticipate that Crush margins will remain healthy while our productivity measures enable us to have a more efficient cost structure. We continue to drive opportunistic extension of our destination marketing scope, grow our regenerative agriculture acres and partnerships and expand our renewable fuels feedstock production.

我們預計農業服務和油籽業務將繼續利用其延伸的價值鏈並根據需求帶來結構性變化。我們預計壓榨利潤率將保持健康，而我們的生產力措施使我們能夠擁有更有效的成本結構。我們繼續趁機擴大我們的目的地行銷範圍，擴大我們的再生農業面積和合作夥伴關係，並擴大我們的再生燃料原料生產。

In Carb Solutions, the compounding effects of our transformative investments coupled with early contracting for starches and sweeteners and what we believe to be a positive ethanol environment are setting up for another strong year in 2024.

在 Carb Solutions 中，我們的變革性投資加上澱粉和甜味劑的早期合約以及我們認為積極的乙醇環境的複合效應正在為 2024 年又一個強勁的一年奠定基礎。

For Nutrition, we expect continued growth in our revenue opportunity pipeline with significant conversions continuing as we move past some near-term demand weakness. Our expanding results in Flavors continue to signal acceleration across our broader portfolio. We expect the positive revenue growth trends in Health and Wellness to drive into next year, and we're already pivoting Specialty Ingredients towards high potential areas like alternative daily and specialized nutrition.

對於營養品，我們預期隨著我們克服近期需求疲軟的情況，我們的收入機會管道將持續成長，並將繼續發生重大轉變。我們在口味領域不斷擴大的業績繼續表明我們更廣泛的產品組合正在加速發展。我們預計健康和保健領域的正向收入成長趨勢將持續到明年，我們已經將特種成分轉向高潛力領域，例如替代日常和專業營養。

Our actions in Animal Nutrition are delivering a positive impact and sustained opportunity growth, which we believe will expand further through the segment in the coming year. And by applying our commercial excellence efforts to this portfolio, we are focusing on the value of innovation in the specialty parts of the business.

我們在動物營養領域的行動正在帶來積極的影響和持續的機會成長，我們相信這將在未來一年在該領域進一步擴大。透過將我們的商業卓越努力應用於該產品組合，我們專注於業務專業部分的創新價值。

In closing, I want to express my gratitude to the ADM team for their dedication, hard work and resourcefulness. With the momentum we have been building upon the foundation for growth we have established, I am confident in our ability to continue to deliver solid results as we move into 2024 and continue to pave a path for long-term profit growth.

最後，我要對 ADM 團隊的奉獻、辛勤工作和足智多謀表示感謝。憑藉我們在已建立的成長基礎上不斷發展的勢頭，我相信我們有能力在進入 2024 年時繼續取得紮實的成果，並繼續為長期利潤成長鋪平道路。

Thank you. Operator, please open the line for questions.

謝謝。接線員，請開通提問線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question for today comes from Andrew Strelzik of BMO Capital Markets.

我們今天的第一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Andrew Strelzik。

I guess I wanted to ask about the U.S. crush margin outlook. You commented that you expect crush margins to remain healthy. And I guess this is really a question about 2024 where the U.S. broadcast features have come down. What's your perspective on what's going on there? Do you think that the crush capacity that's coming on is having an impact, or how is that being absorbed? I guess just trying to frame your commentary around momentum with what's going on in Crush?

我想我想問美國壓榨利潤前景。您評論說，您預計壓榨利潤率將保持健康。我想這確實是一個關於 2024 年美國廣播功能下降的問題。您對那裡正在發生的事情有何看法？您認為即將出現的擠壓能力是否會產生影響，或者這種影響是如何被吸收的？我想你只是想圍繞著《Crush》中發生的事情來闡述你的評論？

Yes. Thank you, Andrew. Listen, our perspective have not changed. If anything, the perspective that we have for the market has been confirmed by what we're saying. Of course, it's a very dynamic environment with the market trying to balance a lot of issues, whether it's more availability of products, more demand, the Argentine situation. We have seen Board Crush explode back to near the highs recently. And this is just only a reflection of the incredible demand that is coming for soybean mill into the U.S. This drives the Board Crush has -- it was mill-driven maybe before it was oil-driven, this was mill-driven. You see Argentina situation, they are getting to the end of their inventory.

是的。謝謝你，安德魯。聽著，我們的觀點沒有改變。如果有什麼不同的話，那就是我們對市場的看法已經被我們所說的證實了。當然，這是一個非常動態的環境，市場試圖平衡許多問題，無論是更多的產品可用性、更多的需求還是阿根廷的情況。我們最近看到 Board Crush 爆炸回到了高點附近。這只是美國對大豆加工廠的巨大需求的反映，這推動了董事會壓榨——它是由工廠驅動的，也許在石油驅動之前，這是由工廠驅動的。你看阿根廷的情況，他們的庫存即將耗盡。

There are probably enough beans at this point for crushers to run until November. So what we see the export book of the U.S. for soybean mill is a record export book from the U.S., something that is higher than over the last 10 years. So I think that, that will continue well into Q1 of 2024.

此時可能有足夠的豆子供壓榨機運作到 11 月。因此，我們看到美國豆磨機的出口紀錄是美國創紀錄的出口紀錄，高於過去10年。因此，我認為這種情況將持續到 2024 年第一季。

And fundamentally, what has changed, and you have that, if you were island of strong crush margins in the U.S. is this demand for oil. We see crush margins have been a little bit lower for soybean, certainly in Brazil or in Europe, and it's because some of the oil prices have declined. But in the U.S. with the new demand for renewable green diesel and the new -- all the new capacity coming, we expect that to remain strong for years to come. So we will continue to be very constructive at our crush margins in the U.S.

從根本上來說，改變的是對石油的需求，如果你是美國壓榨利潤豐厚的島嶼的話。我們發現大豆的壓榨利潤率略有下降，尤其是在巴西或歐洲，這是因為部分油價下跌。但在美國，隨著對再生綠色柴油的新需求以及所有新產能的到來，我們預計未來幾年將保持強勁。因此，我們將繼續對美國的壓榨利潤保持非常有建設性的態度。

Our next question comes from Ben Theurer of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

Wanted to follow up on Nutrition and the updated guidance calling that roughly $600 million op income for the year. Help us understand if you can, putting that into context to what just a while ago, we've talked about the path to make this business a $1 billion operating income business. What has gone into the wrong direction? And what do you still need to correct to bring this business back on track to make it a $1 billion contributor?

希望跟進營養和更新後的指南，該指南稱今年的營運收入約為 6 億美元。如果可以的話，請幫助我們理解，將其與不久前我們討論過的使該業務成為營業收入 10 億美元業務的路徑相結合。到底是什麼走錯方向了呢？為了讓該業務重回正軌，使其成為 10 億美元的貢獻者，您還需要糾正哪些問題？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Ben. So let's take it by different business lines. So in Flavors, as I mentioned, Q3 had a very strong performance. And if you actually look year-to-date, Flavors' operating profit is up 16%. And I think that's been a very important growth engine, and typically, the sales cycle in Flavors tends to be shorter than some of our other product portfolios. So just keep that in mind. That momentum is building, and we see that momentum through our revenue pipeline, which is increasing month-over-month, we anticipate momentum in Q4 and frankly, continuing into 2024. The other aspect is EBITDA margins of Flavors is also increasing. It's not just revenue growth. The profit is also as a consequence of EBITDA margin expansion.

是的。謝謝你的提問，本。那麼讓我們從不同的業務線來看。因此，正如我所提到的，在口味方面，第三季的表現非常強勁。如果你仔細觀察今年迄今為止的情況，Flavours 的營業利潤成長了 16%。我認為這是一個非常重要的成長引擎，通常情況下，調味品的銷售週期往往比我們的其他一些產品組合短。所以請記住這一點。這種勢頭正在增強，我們透過我們的收入管道看到了這種勢頭，收入逐月增加，我們預計第四季度的勢頭，坦率地說，將持續到2024 年。另一方面是調味品的EBITDA 利潤率也在增加。這不僅僅是收入成長。該利潤也是 EBITDA 利潤率擴張的結果。

And finally, Flavors' contribution year-to-date overall as a part of Nutrition profitability is a little over 50%. So important to keep that as a back of your mind as we think about the future. The second part of the Human Nutrition business, Health and Wellness. Health and Wellness have been steady. Actually, the dietary supplements market, which was a little bit of a headwind has -- we see the destocking impacts tend to recede a bit, and we are optimistic about the outlook next year.

最後，今年迄今為止，調味品對營養品獲利能力的整體貢獻略高於 50%。當我們思考未來時，請牢記這一點，這一點非常重要。人類營養業務的第二部分，健康與保健。健康狀況一直穩定。事實上，原本有點逆風的膳食補充劑市場已經——我們看到去庫存的影響趨於消退，我們對明年的前景持樂觀態度。

The other thing that Juan mentioned is the evidence-based portfolio of ingredients is expanding and our ability to apply that into functional food and solutions gives us confidence and that business to continue growing into next year and beyond.

胡安提到的另一件事是，基於證據的成分組合正在擴大，我們將其應用於功能性食品和解決方案的能力給了我們信心，讓我們的業務在明年及以後繼續成長。

Specialty Ingredients. Actually, it's a tale of 2 cities within Specialty Ingredients. There's a texturants portfolio that has done exceptionally well because of expansion of margins. We don't talk much about that, but because it's a smaller part of the business, but that has performed exceptionally well this year.

特殊成分。事實上，這是一個關於 Specialty Ingredients 中兩個城市的故事。由於利潤率的擴大，有一個紋理劑產品組合表現異常出色。我們對此不多談，但因為它只佔業務的一小部分，但今年表現異常出色。

The challenge has been on the plant-based protein market. And the plant-based protein is driven by market softness, right? There is a softness in the market, and we've gone down as a consequence of what's happening in the market. What we are doing from that perspective is pivoting the portfolio into some of the more resilient categories like specialized nutrition or like -- or to dairy. It doesn't happen overnight. But remember, we -- through our CD&E capabilities, it allows us to pivot our product portfolio into the categories that are growing, and we will do that. We are in the process of doing that.

挑戰來自於植物性蛋白質市場。植物蛋白是由市場疲軟推動的，對嗎？市場疲軟，由於市場發生的事情，我們的股價下跌了。從這個角度來看，我們正在做的是將投資組合轉向一些更具彈性的類別，例如專業營養品或乳製品。這不會在一夜之間發生。但請記住，透過我們的 CD&E 能力，它使我們能夠將我們的產品組合轉向正在成長的類別，我們將這樣做。我們正在這樣做。

What happened in the interim is the Decatur East incident. What that's created is a challenge in terms of white flake production for specialty proteins in North America. So that's been a drag that we clearly had not foreseen. And that drag is going to continue into 2024. So within Human Nutrition, Flavors performing exceptionally well outpacing the market; Health and Wellness, steady; SI is kind of in line with market, further exacerbated by the recent Decatur East incident.

在此期間發生的事情就是迪凱特東事件。這對北美特殊蛋白質的白色薄片生產提出了挑戰。因此，這是我們顯然沒有預見到的拖累。這種拖累將持續到 2024 年。因此，在人類營養領域，調味品的表現異常出色，超過了市場；健康與保健，穩定； SI 與市場走勢一致，最近迪凱特東事件進一步加劇了這一情況。

Then step into Animal Nutrition. You know what happens with amino acids. We were coming off very high margins in 2022. The good news is we are going to reset in a much more normalized margin levels in 2023. So therefore, '24 onwards, we won't have that lapping impact of higher amino acid margins. But if you exclude amino acid margins, the base Animal Nutrition business, excluding Pet Solutions, we talked about all the actions that business is undertaking to optimize costs as well as drive focus on Specialty Ingredients. That is being recognized in performance. We are seeing the benefits of that and you'll see sequential quarter-over-quarter growth. So that, we feel very good about this in Q4 as well as going forward.

然後進入動物營養。你知道氨基酸會發生什麼事。 2022 年我們的利潤率非常高。好消息是我們將在 2023 年重置為更正常化的利潤水平。因此，從 24 年開始，我們將不會受到氨基酸利潤率較高的影響。但如果您排除胺基酸利潤率、基本動物營養業務（不包括寵物解決方案），我們討論了該業務為優化成本以及推動對特種成分的關注而採取的所有行動。這在績效中得到了認可。我們看到了這樣做的好處，並且您將看到環比連續增長。因此，我們對第四季以及未來的發展感到非常滿意。

Ag Solutions, demand creation remains solid. That category has been fantastic. We've had challenges in demand fulfillment in North America. And particularly, we talked about that primarily in the recent acquisition that we did in 2021. Those are still lingering, but we have very clear action plans, and we feel confident that by the end of this year and early next year, we will be able to more than offset that.

農業解決方案，需求創造依然強勁。這個類別非常棒。我們在北美的需求滿足方面遇到了挑戰。特別是，我們主要在 2021 年進行的最近收購中談到了這一點。這些仍然揮之不去，但我們有非常明確的行動計劃，我們有信心到今年年底和明年初，我們將能夠抵消這一點。

So all in all, combined with that a new innovation, we feel pretty confident that Nutrition will return to growth in 2024. And albeit maybe at a slightly lower growth rate than we had anticipated before. But getting to $1 billion is definitely within the horizon. It may not happen in the next year or in year falling, but definitely in the near term or in the medium term.

總而言之，結合一項新的創新，我們非常有信心營養品將在 2024 年恢復成長。儘管成長率可能略低於我們先前的預期。但達到 10 億美元絕對指日可待。它可能不會在明年或下降的年份發生，但肯定會在近期或中期發生。

Our next question comes from Tom Palmer of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的湯姆·帕爾默。

The details on the Crush moves, I think Andrew's question was helpful. But maybe we could dig a little bit more into what's happening on the oil side. I mean we have seen soybean oil prices come down over the past couple of months. The futures curve does suggest some continued pressure as we move into '24.

關於粉碎動作的細節，我認為安德魯的問題很有幫助。但也許我們可以更深入地了解石油方面正在發生的事情。我的意思是，過去幾個月我們看到豆油價格下跌。進入 24 年後，期貨曲線確實顯示存在一些持續的壓力。

It sounds like you have plenty of visibility that demand is very strong on this side, but maybe just some color on what might have caused this downward price move and whether it's more temporary in nature in your view?

聽起來您很清楚這一方面的需求非常強勁，但也許只是對可能導致價格下跌的原因進行一些分析，以及您認為這本質上是否是暫時的？

Yes. Thank you, Tom. Listen, North America refining margins are lower in this quarter. I think if you look at last year, the high-priced oils were impacted by supply chain disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war. So I would say this is a more normalized environment. We have also some positive timing impacts due to the pronounced RIN and HVO market movements, pulling forward some of those gains. I would say, when we look at the forward quarter, we see remain -- refining margins to remain strong, but maybe a decline from the elevated highs we saw in 2022 on the early part of this year.

是的。謝謝你，湯姆。聽著，本季北美煉油利潤率較低。我認為，如果你看看去年，高價石油受到了俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭供應鏈中斷的影響。所以我想說這是一個更規範化的環境。由於 RIN 和 HVO 市場的明顯波動，我們也產生了一些正面的時機影響，從而推動了其中一些收益。我想說，當我們展望未來季度時，我們看到煉油利潤率仍將保持強勁，但可能會比今年年初 2022 年的高點有所下降。

Biodiesel margins are also coming out of the highs, as maybe the RIN value component of margin has declined as the industry is building a bank of RINs. So we still have not seen a significant pull from the RD demand that it's been building but we maintain our expectation of how much it's going to be built there. So we think that is coming.

生質柴油的利潤率也從高點回升，因為隨著該行業正在建立 RIN 銀行，利潤率的 RIN 價值部分可能已經下降。因此，我們仍然沒有看到其正在建設的研發需求出現顯著拉動，但我們維持對那裡將建造多少的預期。所以我們認為這即將到來。

The other thing you need to think about oil is that demand for food oil is very strong and has rebounded. And there are expectations now that with El Niño, we might have and with the natural maturity of the plantations in the Southeast Asia that we might have a little bit less supply of palm oil and all that. So although we are coming off the highs, we continue to be constructive about margin stabilizing at a strong level in the RPO over year.

關於石油，您需要考慮的另一件事是對食用油的需求非常強勁並且已經反彈。現在人們預計，由於厄爾尼諾現象，隨著東南亞種植園的自然成熟，我們的棕櫚油供應可能會減少一些。因此，儘管我們正在脫離高點，但我們仍然對去年 RPO 利潤率穩定在強勁水平持建設性態度。

Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當·薩繆爾森。

I was hoping to maybe dig in on the Carb Solutions outlook and maybe if you could just parse the non-ethanol pieces a little bit more. And I think in the prepared remarks, you alluded to kind of a favorable start to contracting in North America sweeteners and starches and maybe elaborate on what you are actually seeing there, maybe better frame kind of the incremental capital investments to come in that business. Obviously, there's a lot of transformation work happening in that business.

我希望能深入了解碳水化合物解決方案的前景，也許你能多分析非乙醇部分。我認為在準備好的發言中，您提到了北美甜味劑和澱粉合約的良好開端，並可能詳細說明您在那裡實際看到的情況，也許更好地框架了該業務的增量資本投資。顯然，該行業正在進行大量轉型工作。

That's not all much kind of come to fruition in the near term, but better contextualize kind of what the actual level of investment that you've already committed to there -- there is? And if I could just ask a clarifying question on the last point on RPO. How much was the timing benefit in the third quarter?

這並不是所有的事情都會在短期內實現，但更了解您已經承諾的實際投資水準是多少？我能否就 RPO 的最後一點提出一個澄清問題。第三季的時間效益有多少？

About $95 million. So on the Carb Solutions question, Adam, I think it's important to just frame it. The liquid sweetener volumes have been steady. And this has happened throughout this year. Almost every quarter, we've said that. So the demand has been pretty resilient, and the margin structure has been strong. The other thing that's actually helpful is strong exports to Mexico as well as higher sugar prices. The specialty volumes in North America have been a bit soft, but with the improved mix and pricing, our margins have actually expanded. The BioSolutions market, we're actually extending into new applications, and that revenue growth year-to-date is 23%. Wheat flour demand has been resilient. The optimization I referred to in my comments, has actually helped improve the cost structure and expand margins.

約9500萬美元。因此，關於碳水化合物解決方案的問題，亞當，我認為重要的是框架它。液體甜味劑的銷售量一直穩定。今年全年都發生了這種情況。幾乎每個季度，我們都會這麼說。因此，需求相當有彈性，而且利潤結構也很強勁。另一件真正有幫助的事情是對墨西哥的強勁出口以及更高的糖價。北美的特種產品銷售有點疲軟，但隨著產品組合和定價的改善，我們的利潤實際上有所擴大。在 BioSolutions 市場，我們實際上正在擴展到新的應用程序，今年迄今的收入成長率為 23%。小麥粉需求一直堅挺。我在評論中提到的優化實際上有助於改善成本結構並擴大利潤。

Ethanol, you know what's going on in ethanol. It goes, the margin structure there is very supportive given domestic demand, blend economics, strong U.S. exports as well as the fact that we've got a significant -- actually higher domestic driving miles. Now when you think about next year, I mean we're well set up for the Q4 of '23, and I already talked about that. It's a little early to say. But based on the strong finish that we anticipated in 2023, and early '24 contracting in North America, sweeteners and starches, we are optimistic for solid volumes and our ability to actually maintain and potentially even expand margins in our core starches and sweeteners portfolio.

乙醇，你知道乙醇中發生了什麼事。考慮到國內需求、混合經濟、強勁的美國出口以及我們擁有顯著的——實際上更高的國內行駛里程這一事實，那裡的利潤結構非常有支持性。現在，當你考慮明年時，我的意思是我們已經為 23 年第四季做好了充分的準備，我已經談到了這一點。現在說還為時過早。但基於我們預計 2023 年的強勁業績，以及 24 年初北美甜味劑和澱粉的合同，我們對穩定的銷量以及我們實際維持甚至可能擴大核心澱粉和甜味劑產品組合利潤的能力感到樂觀。

We'll tell you more in our February call, but going in, the outlook is constructive. And similarly for ethanol. You know that tends to be volatile. But right now, the general trend's to be supportive of a higher-for-longer ethanol margin environment.

我們將在二月份的電話會議中告訴您更多信息，但展望未來是有建設性的。乙醇也類似。你知道這往往是不穩定的。但目前，整體趨勢是支持乙醇利潤率長期較高的環境。

Our next question comes from Ben Bienvenu of Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Ben Bienvenu。

I have kind of a two-pronged question. One is -- one, you've kind of hit bits and pieces and Vikram as well with the Nutrition commentary of the overall business outlook into 2024.

我有一個兩方面的問題。一是——一，你對 Vikram 以及對 2024 年整體業務前景的營養評論有所了解。

The kind of implicit takeaway is we should still expect kind of very strong and above what, I guess, we would think of as mid-cycle earnings power in 2024, albeit it's early to make that call in 2024. So correct me if I'm wrong there. But two, when you think about allocating capital at this point in the cycle, how does that change, if at all, with what you've been doing over the last several years, and you've been picking up your buyback activity, how should we be thinking about that as we move through this period of time as well?

隱含的結論是，我們仍然應該預期非常強勁，並且高於我們所認為的2024 年中期盈利能力，儘管在2024 年做出這一決定還為時過早。所以如果我這麼說，請糾正我。我錯了。但第二，當你考慮在周期的這個階段分配資本時，如果有的話，這種情況會如何改變，如果有的話，你過去幾年一直在做的事情，以及你一直在進行的回購活動，如何改變當我們經歷這段時間時，我們是否也應該思考這個問題？

Yes. Thank you, Ben. Good question. Listen, we see 2024 with a lot of optimism. We're working through the plan right now, as you can imagine at this time of the year. We continue to see the strength of Ag Services and Oilseeds and Carb Solutions continuing. Ag Services and Oilseeds, we have seen some fundamental structural changes. And I think that, that's a multiyear trend. So we're going to see higher crush margins, at least in the United States for quite a while.

是的。謝謝你，本。好問題。聽著，我們對 2024 年充滿樂觀。我們現在正在製定該計劃，正如您在每年的這個時候可以想像的那樣。我們繼續看到農業服務以及油籽和碳水化合物解決方案的優勢持續存在。在農業服務和油籽領域，我們看到了一些根本性的結構性變化。我認為這是一個多年趨勢。因此，我們將看到更高的壓榨利潤，至少在美國相當長一段時間內是如此。

And our Ag Services business continued to grow around the world in the -- with the strength of destination marketing. And that exacerbated concern about food security that bring -- brought by all the geopolitics and the weather events and the pandemic and all that continues and continue to enhance margins for us to the service we provide around the world. So we see that business being very solid and very strong contributor.

憑藉目的地行銷的優勢，我們的農業服務業務在全球範圍內持續成長。這加劇了人們對糧食安全的擔憂，而這些擔憂是由所有地緣政治、天氣事件和大流行病以及所有繼續增加我們在世界各地提供的服務的利潤所帶來的。因此，我們看到該業務非常穩固且貢獻巨大。

Carb Solutions, I think that Vikram touched a little bit on the dynamics of the contracting for next year. But beyond that, I think that you have to remember that we are having different uses, we are finding new demand for those products that will do 2 things, will grow as revenue into new categories like we're seeing in BioSolutions that is growing double digits. But it's also going to tighten up the supply for the existing products. So that will be constructive to margins over time, and we've seen that already. So those are the 2.

Carb Solutions，我認為 Vikram 觸及了明年合約的動態。但除此之外，我認為你必須記住，我們有不同的用途，我們正在尋找對那些能做兩件事的產品的新需求，這些產品將隨著收入進入新類別而增長，就像我們在BioSolutions 中看到的那樣，增長了一倍數字。但這也將收緊現有產品的供應。因此，隨著時間的推移，這將對利潤率產生積極影響，我們已經看到了這一點。所以這些就是 2。

And I think Nutrition and Vikram went into a lot of detail into that and all the different pieces. And we're very confident we're going to go back to growth next year. This year, maybe you call it the pause that refreshes, we took a pause this year. But the fundamental innovation engine that we have, that's our differentiation. That continues to resonate strongly, whether it's in Health and Wellness and whether we are seeing in Flavors or the specialty pieces of Animal Nutrition or the demand generation impact, where the markets are normal and we apply that properly, we are winning more than our fair share, and we're growing faster than the competitors. So we see that with a lot of optimism for next year.

我認為營養學和維克拉姆對此以及所有不同的部分進行了很多詳細介紹。我們非常有信心明年將恢復成長。今年，也許你稱之為刷新的暫停，我們今年暫停了。但我們擁有的根本創新引擎，就是我們的差異化。無論是在健康和保健方面，還是在風味或動物營養的特色產品或需求產生的影響方面，這種情況繼續產生強烈的共鳴，在市場正常且我們正確應用的情況下，我們所贏得的比我們的展會更多分享，而且我們的成長速度比競爭對手更快。因此，我們對明年充滿樂觀。

When we think about how that correlates to our thinking of how to deploy capital, the priority to deploying capital is in our investment plan, and we have been doing that both in OpEx and in CapEx. Unfortunately, CapEx continues to be higher, inflationary pressure there, whether it's manpower or supply of raw materials, it make us take a second look at a lot of the capital. And I think that Vikram has reflected on some of the adjustments that we made, maybe to Specialty Ingredients and Other.

當我們思考這與我們如何部署資本的想法有何關聯時，部署資本的優先事項是我們的投資計劃，我們在營運支出和資本支出方面都一直這樣做。不幸的是，CapEx持續走高，通膨壓力存在，無論是人力或原物料供應，都讓我們重新審視許多資本。我認為維克拉姆已經反思了我們所做的一些調整，可能是對特殊原料和其他方面的調整。

So we're taking a look at that, and we're reviewing as always in our capital discipline on every project. But we have many opportunities in front of us, and we're going to continue to fund them. We have increased our return to shareholders. Certainly, our cash flow generation is very strong. And to be honest, when we see some of the pivot we are doing even in Carb Solution with some of these opportunities, they are not hugely loading our CapEx, if you will. Some of these things where there is the pipeline for decarbonization is with partners, whether it's the LG Chem or other joint ventures are also partnerships. So it's not that (inaudible) in our CapEx budget, if you will. So we think that we're going to continue to increase the return to shareholders. And we've been opportunistic looking at, of course, the M&A environment.

因此，我們正在考慮這一點，並且一如既往地審查每個項目的資本紀律。但我們面前有很多機會，我們將繼續為它們提供資金。我們增加了對股東的回報。當然，我們的現金流產生非常強勁。說實話，當我們看到我們在 Carb Solution 中所做的一些轉變以及其中一些機會時，如果你願意的話，它們並沒有極大地增加我們的資本支出。其中一些有脫碳通路的事情是與合作夥伴合作的，無論是 LG 化學還是其他合資企業也是合作夥伴關係。因此，如果您願意的話，這不是我們的資本支出預算中的（聽不清楚）。因此，我們認為我們將繼續增加股東的回報。當然，我們一直在觀察併購環境。

And to be candid, we participate in many. We have many items on the fire, but the reality is that valuations have not come down, and we plan to continue to keep our discipline in that regard. So we continue to be opportunistic in that and we look at that. I think Vikram will make a comment on this one.

坦白說，我們參與了很多活動。我們有很多項目正在火熱進行中，但現實是估值並沒有下降，我們計劃在這方面繼續保持我們的紀律。因此，我們繼續在這方面保持機會主義，並對此進行研究。我想維克拉姆會對此發表評論。

Yes. I think also in terms of buybacks, good to remind everyone that if you remember in our 2021 Investor Day, we talked about $5 billion of buybacks over the next 4 years through 2025. If you combine what we've done last year and this year, we've done almost about $2.6 billion of buyback. So we are ahead of that pace. And as I mentioned in my comments and as Juan said, if we don't see compelling valuations and given our discipline, we probably -- at these trading levels, price levels, we probably are going to buy back a little more aggressively, and you probably will see a stronger pace of buybacks in Q4 as a consequence of some of those factors.

是的。我認為在回購方面，值得提醒大家的是，如果您還記得在2021 年投資者日，我們討論了到2025 年的未來4 年將進行50 億美元的回購。如果您將我們去年和今年所做的事情結合起來，我們已經完成了近 26 億美元的回購。所以我們領先這個速度。正如我在評論中提到的，正如胡安所說，如果我們沒有看到令人信服的估值，並且考慮到我們的紀律，我們可能- 在這些交易水平、價格水平上，我們可能會更積極地回購，並且由於其中一些因素，您可能會在第四季度看到更強勁的回購步伐。

Our next question comes from Salvator Tiano from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾。

I want to ask a little bit about the carbonization and the work you're trying to do at Decatur. And I think when we -- you were talking about the 7 million tons of -- you're trying to sequester per year, the idea is that some of these will come from other facilities where you probably need to build pipelines. I'm just wondering, we're seeing a lot of issues with permitting and other issues with CO2 pipelines in other regions. Could this -- could you face similar issues and could this affect the total amount you will be able to sequester at Decatur? Or on the other hand, could this actually be an opportunity and people that were relying on some other pipelines like with (inaudible) one may come to you and use your Decatur wells for sequestration?

我想詢問一些有關碳化和你們在迪凱特正在嘗試做的工作的問題。我認為，當我們——你談論的是每年 700 萬噸——你試圖封存的時候，我們的想法是，其中一些將來自你可能需要建造管道的其他設施。我只是想知道，我們在其他地區看到了很多許可問題以及二氧化碳管道的其他問題。您是否會遇到類似的問題？這是否會影響您在迪凱特能夠隔離的總量？或者另一方面，這實際上可能是一個機會，那些依賴其他管道（例如（聽不清楚）的管道）的人可能會來找您並使用您的迪凱特井進行封存？

Yes. Thank you, Salvator, for the question. This is a very important initiative for ADM. And it's something that, as you know, we have started like 10 years ago, so it's something that we have a lot of experience in, and we're leveraging that experience and that headstart, if you will, in our ability to inject carbon into the lower surfaces in our facility at Decatur. We have a couple of wells there, and we're planning, as you said, to create 5 more injection wells over the next few years. It is true, part of that will be bringing biogenic CO2 generated by our ethanol plants through pipelines. And we are working already in 2 of those pipelines. We have already submitted permits for all that. Those permits have been accepted. So they are complete. They are in the process of being studied and analyzed, and we are reviewing also with our partners the right way and acquisitions and all those type of agreements.

是的。謝謝薩爾瓦托提出的問題。這對 ADM 來說是一項非常重要的舉措。如你所知，我們在 10 年前就開始了這項工作，因此我們在這方面擁有豐富的經驗，如果你願意的話，我們正在利用這些經驗和先發優勢來提高我們注入碳的能力進入我們迪凱特工廠的下表面。我們在那裡有幾口井，正如您所說，我們計劃在未來幾年內再打 5 口注入井。確實，其中一部分將透過管道輸送我們的乙醇工廠產生的生物二氧化碳。我們已經在其中兩條管道中開展工作。我們已經提交了所有這些許可。這些許可證已被接受。所以它們是完整的。它們正在接受研究和分析，我們也在與我們的合作夥伴一起審查正確的方式和收購以及所有這些類型的協議。

Of course, as any industry that is breaking ground, the pioneer suffer sometimes with the regulatory environment and having to adjust all that. So we're working closely with the authorities across different states and in terms of trying to align the regulatory framework to the needs of decarbonization and to the desires of the Department of Energy and the Department of Agriculture to have a smart agriculture in the U.S. and decarbonize that.

當然，與任何正在破土動工的行業一樣，先驅者有時會受到監管環境的影響，並且必須進行所有調整。因此，我們正在與不同州的當局密切合作，努力使監管框架適應脫碳的需求以及能源部和農業部在美國和農業部建立智慧農業的願望。脫碳。

So work in progress, as you said, we have seen the news that you do. And you can take the takeaway that we might suffer a similar fate or that we will have less competition as you described. At this point in time, we don't have any bad news to report other than we continue forward with our efforts, and we will update you in the next call.

所以工作正在進行中，正如你所說，我們已經看到了你所做的新聞。您可以得出這樣的結論：我們可能會遭受類似的命運，或者我們的競爭將減少，正如您所描述的那樣。目前，我們沒有任何壞消息要報告，除了我們繼續努力之外，我們將在下次電話會議中向您通報最新情況。

Our next question comes from Davis Sunderland of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的戴維斯桑德蘭 (Davis Sunderland)。

Juan, you already talked about it a little bit, but I just wanted to ask if you could expand a little bit more on the ethanol and renewable diesel supply and demand environment, maybe what you're seeing for '24 and beyond. And if you anticipate any incremental changes in consumer behavior over that time.

胡安，你已經談過一點了，但我只是想問你是否可以在乙醇和可再生柴油的供需環境上進行更多的擴展，也許你在 24 年及以後看到的情況。如果您預計在此期間消費者行為會發生任何增量變化。

Yes, Davis. Listen, in ethanol, we think ethanol is going to have a very constructive environment. Very high sugar prices are driving Brazilians to produce a lot of sugar versus ethanol so we're going to have less inputs of ethanol. Biofuels mandates are growing around the world, whether it's more ethanol or more biodiesel. So we see Brazil going up 1% per year in that regard. And we see ethanol continues to have very good export. It has a very good value to other oxygenates that normally, they go for like $2.50 per gallon. So we have a big advantage around the world. And for people that want to increase the octane in their gasoline, ethanol is a very cheap oxygenates around the world. So the U.S. is the best producer of that, will continue to increase.

是的，戴維斯。聽著，在乙醇方面，我們認為乙醇將擁有一個非常有建設性的環境。非常高的糖價正促使巴西人生產大量的糖而不是乙醇，因此我們的乙醇投入將會減少。世界各地對生物燃料的要求正在增加，無論是更多的乙醇還是更多的生物柴油。因此，我們預計巴西在這方面的成長率每年為 1%。我們看到乙醇的出口繼續非常好。與其他含氧化合物相比，它具有非常高的價值，通常每加侖售價為 2.50 美元。所以我們在世界範圍內有很大的優勢。對於想要提高汽油辛烷值的人來說，乙醇是世界各地非常便宜的含氧化合物。所以美國是最好的生產國，並將繼續增加。

So you can see export having maybe a floor of 1.4 billion gallons going into 1.5 billion. So that's very good. When we look at renewable green diesel, there has been no changes on how we see renewable diesel growth in the medium term, which is to get to around 5 billion gallons in the U.S. by 2025, 2026.

因此，您可以看到出口量可能從 14 億加侖增長到 15 億加侖。所以這非常好。當我們審視再生綠色柴油時，我們對中期再生柴油成長的看法沒有變化，即到 2025 年、2026 年美國將達到約 50 億加侖。

Of course, we're a global company, we see that becoming 7 billion to 8 billion gallons by maybe -- and maybe 14 billion, 15 billion gallons of renewable green diesel and SAF online by 2026 and 2027. So we are at the very early innings of all these biofuel demand that is coming, whether it's again for renewable green diesel or the promise of decarbonization that SAF brings to aviation that it doesn't have any other valid options right now. So again, we're going to be a player that Spiritwood shows that. We're going to bring 1.5 million tons of capacity that will feed 75 million gallons of RGV. So we expect the others will deliver as we have delivered Spiritwood. So this is an industry we're building that we're excited about.

當然，我們是一家全球性公司，我們預計到 2026 年和 2027 年，再生綠色柴油和 SAF 的線上產量可能會達到 70 億至 80 億加侖，甚至可能達到 140 億、150 億加侖。所有這些生物燃料需求即將到來，無論是再生綠色柴油還是SAF 為航空業帶來的脫碳承諾，目前都沒有其他有效選擇。再說一遍，我們將成為 Spiritwood 所展示的球員。我們將帶來 150 萬噸產能，為 7,500 萬加侖 RGV 提供原料。因此，我們期望其他人能夠像我們交付靈木一樣交付。所以這是我們正在建立的一個讓我們感到興奮的產業。

Our next question comes from Steven Haynes of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的史蒂文·海恩斯。

I wanted to just ask a question on the guidance. I think previously, you're kind of saying $7 with some upside and now you're saying in excess of $7. So maybe if you could just kind of help us, I don't know, maybe quantify the difference in the 2 guidances and size, the upside piece would be helpful.

我只是想問一個關於指導的問題。我認為以前，你說的是 7 美元，有一些上漲空間，而現在你說的是超過 7 美元。所以也許如果你能幫助我們，我不知道，也許量化兩個指導和大小的差異，好的方面會有所幫助。

Well, so I think the first thing to note is when in Q2, we said around $7 for potential -- with potential for more upside. And what we have seen saying right now is that potential upside is coming through, and that's why we're raising our guidance in excess of $7. But if you step back, Steven, think about what's happened between Q2 and Q3. One is, clearly, Nutrition has been softer. We had guided to it similar in Q2. Now we are guiding to around $600 million. So you know, by definition, there's a compensation in other parts of the business.

嗯，所以我認為首先要注意的是，在第二季度，我們說潛力約為 7 美元——還有更多上漲的潛力。我們現在看到的情況是，潛在的上漲空間正在顯現，這就是為什麼我們將指導值提高到 7 美元以上。但如果你退後一步，史蒂文，想想第二季和第三季之間發生了什麼。一是，營養顯然變得更疲軟。我們在第二季也進行了類似的指導。現在我們的目標是大約 6 億美元。所以你知道，根據定義，業務的其他部分也有補償。

And when you think about the compensation relative to our Q2, that's probably going to come partially from AS&O and partially from CS. And we gave some guidance on AS&O for Q4 and also some guidance for CS, CS to be relatively flat versus Q4, barring any continued expansion in ethanol margins, so that could be upside in CS. And in AS&O, we have some puts and takes in RPO in particular, and one went through this. We expect that to be weaker than Q4 of last year just because we expect these mark-to-market timing gains we realized in Q3 to be rolling off.

當你考慮第二季的薪水時，你會發現這可能部分來自 AS&O，部分來自 CS。我們對第四季度的 AS&O 給出了一些指導，也對 CS 給出了一些指導，CS 與第四季度相比相對持平，除非乙醇利潤率繼續擴大，因此 CS 可能會上漲。在 AS&O 中，我們特別對 RPO 進行了一些調整和調整，其中有人經歷過這一點。我們預計這一數字將弱於去年第四季度，因為我們預計第三季度實現的市值計價的時機收益將會逐漸減少。

And then in Ag Services, it's going to be generally flat, excluding the legal settlement that was a onetime thing in Q4 of last year. And then in crush, it's going to be strong. And I think Juan talked about that we are continuing to be constructive about the crush outlook particularly in the U.S. going forward, given some of the structural demand changes related to renewable green diesel in particular.

然後，在農業服務領域，除去年第四季一次性達成的法律和解外，整體情況將持平。然後在暗戀中，它會變得堅強。我認為胡安談到，考慮到與再生綠色柴油相關的一些結構性需求變化，我們將繼續對壓榨前景持建設性態度，特別是在美國。

At this time, we currently have no further questions. So I'll hand back to Ms. Britt for any further remarks.

目前，我們沒有進一步的問題。因此，如果有任何進一步的評論，我將轉交給布里特女士。

Thank you for joining us today. Please feel free to follow up with me if you have any other questions. Have a good day, and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

感謝您今天加入我們。如果您還有其他問題，請隨時與我聯絡。祝您有美好的一天，感謝您的時間和對 ADM 的興趣。

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。現在您可以斷開線路。