Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the ADM's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to introduce your host for today's call, Megan Britt, Vice President, Investor Relations for ADM. Mr. Britt you may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加 ADM 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，ADM 投資者關係副總裁 Megan Britt。布里特先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Eliot. Hello and welcome to the Second Quarter Earnings Webcast for ADM. Starring to tomorrow a replay of this webcast will be available on our Investor Relations website.

謝謝你，艾略特。您好，歡迎收看 ADM 第二季財報網路廣播。明天起，我們的投資者關係網站將重播該網路廣播。

Please turn to slide 2. Some of our comments and materials may constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance, and financial results.

請翻至投影片 2。

These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risk and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on filed with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation.

這些陳述和材料是基於許多存在風險和不確定性的假設和因素。 ADM 在向 SEC 提交的報告中提供了有關可能導致實際結果與本簡報中的結果有重大差異的假設和因素的更多資​​訊。

To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events.

在適用法律允許的範圍內，ADM 不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

On today’s webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano will discuss our second quarter results and share recent accomplishment on our strategic priority. Our Chief Financial Officer, Ismael Roig will review segment level performance and provide an update on our cash generation and capital allocation action. Juan will have some closing remarks and then he and Ismael will take your questions.

在今天的網路廣播中，我們的董事長兼執行長胡安·盧西亞諾將討論我們第二季度的業績，並分享我們戰略重點的最新成就。我們的財務長伊斯梅爾·羅伊格（Ismael Roig）將審查部門層面的業績，並提供有關我們現金產生和資本配置行動的最新資訊。胡安將發表一些結束語，然後他和伊斯梅爾將回答您的問題。

Please turn to slide 4. I'll now turn the call over to Juan.

請翻到投影片 4。

Thank you, Megan, and good morning to all of whom have joined for today’s call. Today, ADM report its second quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.03 with an adjusted segment operating profit of $1 billion. Our trailing four quarter average adjusted ROIC was 9.7%.

謝謝梅根，對所有參加今天電話會議的人早安。今天，ADM 報告第二季調整後每股收益為 1.03 美元，調整後部門營業利潤為 10 億美元。我們過去四個季度的平均調整後投資報酬率為 9.7%。

We delivered a strong cash flow from operations before working capital at $1.7 billion. Year to date, this equates to an adjusted earnings per share of $2.49 and an adjusted segment operating profit of $2.3 billion. Our team delivered solid results in challenging market conditions, highlighting the efforts of our teams across the business to manage through the commodity down cycle while putting our nutrition business on a path to recovery.

我們在未計營運資本之前實現了 17 億美元的強勁營運現金流。今年迄今為止，這相當於調整後每股收益為 2.49 美元，調整後部門營業利潤為 23 億美元。我們的團隊在充滿挑戰的市場條件下取得了堅實的成果，突顯了我們整個業務團隊為管理商品下行週期所做的努力，同時使我們的營養業務走上復甦之路。

Additionally, we saw signs of improving fundamentals within crush and ethanol later in the quarter, positioning us for a strong second half. We're also flexing our capital allocation strategy to return cash to shareholders, completing our planned share repurchases for the quarter and delivering our 370 consecutive quarterly dividend.

此外，我們在本季稍後看到壓榨和乙醇基本面改善的跡象，為我們下半年的強勁表現做好了準備。我們也靈活調整資本配置策略，向股東返還現金，完成本季計畫的股票回購，並連續 370 次發放季度股利。

Next slide, please. Let's start by reviewing the top-line results of our business units alongside our efforts to manage the cycle through productivity and innovation. Our service analysis results are significantly lower than the record results of prior years due to the ongoing rebalancing of the supply and demand environment and overall lower farmer selling.

請下一張投影片。讓我們先回顧一下我們業務部門的主要業績以及我們透過生產力和創新來管理週期的努力。由於供需環境的持續重新平衡以及農民銷售的整體下降，我們的服務分析結果明顯低於前幾年的記錄結果。

In anticipation of this year's challenges, we focus on driving stronger production volumes and actively leveraging our footprint to match supply to demand around the globe. We've also focused on differentiation opportunities, extending margins and growing volumes by more than 20% year-over-year in areas like destination marketing, achieving our targeted run rate in our Green Bison JV for renewable green diesel feedstocks, and bringing new solutions to our customers through innovations such as our recent EUDR-compliant fully traceable soybean program and the expansion of our regenerative agriculture partnerships and acreage.

面對今年的挑戰，我們專注於推動更強勁的產量，並積極利用我們的足跡來匹配全球的供需。我們也專注於差異化機會，在目的地行銷等領域擴大利潤並使銷量年增 20% 以上，在 Green Bison 合資企業中實現可再生綠色柴油原料的目標運行率，並帶來新的解決方案通過創新，例如我們最近符合EUDR 的完全可追溯大豆計劃以及擴大我們的再生農業合作夥伴關係和種植面積，為我們的客戶提供服務。

These regenec programs highlight our leadership in this space. ABM was named the finalist in Fast Company's world changing ideas in May. And just last week we released our second annual regenec report detailing the data backed results we are achieving across our global operations.

這些 regenec 計劃凸顯了我們在這一領域的領導地位。 ABM 在 5 月被《Fast Company 改變世界的創意》評選為決賽入圍者。就在上週，我們發布了第二份年度 Regenec 報告，詳細介紹了我們在全球營運中取得的數據支援結果。

Carbohydrate Solutions have continued the solid performance trajectory driven by strong margins for sweeteners, starches, and flour with higher volumes year-over-year. Ethanol margins also strengthened as industry production tried to keep pace with robust export and domestic demand.

碳水化合物解決方案持續保持穩健的業績軌跡，這得益於甜味劑、澱粉和麵粉的強勁利潤，銷量逐年增加。由於工業生產試圖跟上強勁的出口和國內需求，乙醇利潤率也有所增強。

Along with this performance, we are continuing to drive innovation-based growth through the sustainability centered evolution of the business. We have delivered 7% year-to-date volume expansion across our Bio Solutions platform, increased starch capacity in our Marshall, Minnesota facility to meet growing demand from food, beverage, and industrial customers, and in a milestone for our strategic partnership, [Solugen] recently broke ground on a 500,000 square foot biomanufacturing facility that will use ADM source dextrose for applications in water treatment, agriculture, energy, and home and personal care.

除了這項業績之外，我們還將透過以永續發展為中心的業務發展，繼續推動基於創新的成長。今年迄今為止，我們的生物解決方案平台銷量成長了7%，增加了明尼蘇達州馬歇爾工廠的澱粉產能，以滿足食品、飲料和工業客戶不斷增長的需求，這是我們戰略合作夥伴關係的一個里程碑， [ Solugen] 最近破土動工了一座佔地 500,000 平方英尺的生物製造設施，該設施將使用 ADM 源葡萄糖用於水處理、農業、能源以及家庭和個人護理領域。

Within our productivity agenda, the drive for execution excellence is continuing to deliver simplification and cost-saving opportunities across the enterprise. In Q2, we advance hundreds of projects that put us clearly on the path to the plan $500 million in cost reduction over the next two years.

在我們的生產力議程中，卓越執行的動力正在繼續為整個企業提供簡化和節省成本的機會。在第二季度，我們推進了數百個項目，這些項目使我們明確走上了未來兩年削減成本 5 億美元的計劃。

We are accelerating these efforts and expect to see a significant portion of these savings by the end of 2024. Our focus on returning nutrition to its growth trajectory is also taking hold, and we are seeing sequential top-line improvement as compared to our previous two quarters.

我們正在加快這些努力，預計到 2024 年底將看到其中很大一部分節省。

While we are experiencing some downward pressure with texture and some protein demand, we draw strong growth in health and wellness sales, along with flavor sales growth, and excellent contributions from our recent acquisitions. In our targeted areas of focus, we are continuing to make progress. We continue to improve demand fulfilment for Flavors in our EMEA region, following the implementation of one ADM.

雖然我們在質地和蛋白質需求方面面臨一些下行壓力，但我們在健康和保健銷售方面取得了強勁增長，風味銷售增長，以及我們最近收購的出色貢獻。在我們的重點目標領域，我們正在不斷取得進展。實施 ADM 後，我們持續改善 EMEA 地區的香精需求滿足。

We're optimizing cost across the Animal Nutrition portfolio, building the foundation to drive continued sequential improvement across the core of the segment.

我們正在優化動物營養產品組合的成本，為推動該細分市場核心業務的持續持續改進奠定基礎。

The use of our refined M&A playbook with our recent flavor acquisitions has proven to be an important accelerator to integration and the ongoing growth of our leading global Flavors business. And our innovation agenda is paying off, driving Human Nutrition revenues up 6% year-to-date, driven by flavors and our science-backed health and wellness portfolio.

事實證明，我們在最近的食用香精收購中採用了完善的併購策略，這對我們全球領先的食用香精業務的整合和持續增長起到了重要的促進作用。我們的創新議程正在取得成效，在口味和我們以科學為依據的健康和保健產品組合的推動下，人類營養收入今年迄今成長了 6%。

Our capital allocation efforts continued through the second quarter as we completed our planned shared repurchases and announced our most recent dividend. We have already returned $2.8 billion of capital to shareholders to date.

我們的資本配置工作在第二季度繼續進行，我們完成了計劃的共享回購並宣布了最近的股息。迄今為止，我們已向股東返還 28 億美元資本。

The second quarter marked an important point in our efforts to manage through the market realities of 2024 and deliver on our priorities. Across all three businesses, we are evolving to drive new pockets of growth in the near term while positioning ADM to take full advantage of macro trends of sustainability, health and well-being, and food security in the longer term.

第二季是我們應對 2024 年市場現實並實現優先事項的重要時刻。在所有三項業務中，我們正在不斷發展，以在短期內推動新的成長，同時使 ADM 充分利用長期可持續發展、健康和福祉以及糧食安全的宏觀趨勢。

As we continue to drive operational excellence and make progress on our key priorities, we have confidence in our full year expectations despite uncertainties in the external environment.

儘管外部環境存在不確定性，但隨著我們繼續推動卓越營運並在關鍵優先事項上取得進展，我們對全年預期充滿信心。

Before I hand over to Ismael for a detailed review of our second quarter results, I would like to first thank him for his leadership and guidance as Interim CFO through the first half of the year. It's the hallmark of ADM leaders to step up when our organization asks for their support, and Ismael has shown that his experience, passion, and knowledge of our business set him apart as one of our best.

在我交給伊斯梅爾詳細審查我們第二季度的業績之前，我首先要感謝他作為臨時首席財務官在今年上半年的領導和指導。當我們的組織尋求支持時，ADM 領導者會挺身而出，這是ADM 領導者的標誌，而Ismael 已經表明，他的經驗、熱情和對我們業務的了解使他成為我們最優秀的人之一。

We are excited to be welcoming Monish Patolawala to ADM as our new CFO in August, and know Ismael has important work to do as he returns to lead EMEA and Animal Nutrition's continued growth. Ismael, over to you.

我們很高興歡迎 Monish Patolawala 於 8 月加入 ADM，擔任我們的新財務官，並且知道 Ismael 在返回領導 EMEA 和動物營養的持續增長時還有重要的工作要做。伊斯梅爾，交給你了。

Thank you, Juan. Let me begin by sharing my own thanks and congratulations for what our finance team has accomplished over the first six months of this year. As a 20-plus year employee of the company, I have seen amazing things our colleagues can accomplish when we work collectively to achieve them.

謝謝你，胡安。首先，我要對我們的財務團隊在今年前六個月所取得的成就表示感謝和祝賀。身為一名在公司工作 20 多年的員工，我親眼目睹了同事們透過共同努力取得的驚人成就。

And this was, again, the reality as I stepped in as Interim CFO. I'm proud to have served the company in this capacity over the last several months, and I'm excited to welcome and support Monish as he joins the team.

當我擔任臨時財務長時，這又是現實。我很自豪能夠在過去幾個月中以這一身份為公司服務，並且很高興歡迎並支持莫尼什加入團隊。

For the second quarter ended June 30, 2024, earnings per share on a GAAP basis were $0.98. Segment operating profit on a GAAP basis was $1 billion and included charges of $7 million, or approximately $0.01 per share related to impairments. Adjusted segment operating profit was $1 billion for the second quarter, a 37% decrease versus the prior year period.

截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日的第二季度，以 GAAP 計算的每股收益為 0.98 美元。以 GAAP 計算的部門營業利潤為 10 億美元，其中包括 700 萬美元的費用，即與減損相關的每股約 0.01 美元。第二季調整後部門營業利潤為 10 億美元，比去年同期下降 37%。

Adjusted earnings per share were $1.03. Lower pricing and execution margins led to a decline of $1.03 per share versus the prior year period, largely reflecting the impact of lower crush and origination margins. Volume improvement represented a $0.19 per share increase versus the prior year period, primarily reflecting higher volumes in AS&O and Carbohydrate Solutions.

調整後每股收益為 1.03 美元。較低的定價和執行利潤率導致每股較上年同期下降 1.03 美元，這在很大程度上反映了壓榨和原始利潤率較低的影響。銷售改善意味著與去年同期相比每股增加了 0.19 美元，主要反映了 AS&O 和碳水化合物解決方案銷售的增加。

Higher costs of $0.07 per share were primarily related to $0.06 per share of unplanned downtime at Decatur East. Share repurchases represented a $0.10 per share increase versus the prior year. During the quarter, there was approximately a $0.02 per share negative impact from mark-to-market timing in the AS&O segment.

每股成本增加 0.07 美元，主要與迪凱特東部每股 0.06 美元的計劃外停機有關。股票回購比前一年每股增加了 0.10 美元。本季度，AS&O 部門按市值計價的時間表對每股產生約 0.02 美元的負面影響。

Please turn to slide 7. For the second quarter, the Ag Services & Oilseeds Team delivered $459 million in operating profit, reflecting on a challenging operating environment compared to the prior year. On a year-over-year basis, mark-to-market timing for the segment was relatively muted.

請參閱幻燈片 7。與去年同期相比，該細分市場的以市價計價時機相對溫和。

As Juan mentioned, strong supplies out of South America have led to a rebalancing of the supply and demand environment, while also shifting export market competitiveness from North America to South America. These ample supplies have also pressured commodity prices compared to the past two years, resulting in slower-than-expected farmer selling relative to last year and the five year averages.

正如胡安所提到的，南美的強勁供應導致了供需環境的重新平衡，同時也將出口市場的競爭力從北美轉移到了南美。與過去兩年相比，這些充足的供應也給大宗商品價格帶來壓力，導致農民的銷售速度低於去年和五年平均值的預期。

From the demand side, inclusion rates for meal continue to be robust, supporting domestic and export demand. Oil values were pressured during the quarter as imports of used cooking oil as a feedstock for renewable diesel continue to grow.

從需求方面來看，膳食的包含率持續強勁，支撐了國內和出口需求。由於作為再生柴油原料的廢食用油進口持續成長，本季石油價格承壓。

Ag Services results were lower than the prior year, primarily driven by lower results in South American origination, as lower farmers selling due to a smaller-than-expected crop in Mato Grosso and higher logistic costs related to industry take or pay contracts led to lower margins.

農業服務業績低於上年，主要是由於南美洲原產地業績下降，因為馬托格羅索州收成低於預期，農民銷售減少，以及與行業照付不議合約相關的物流成本上升導致農業服務業績下降邊距。

North America origination saw lower volumes and margins as strong crop yields out of both Brazil and Argentina led to a shift in export competitiveness to South America, as well as limited carries and trading opportunities.

由於巴西和阿根廷農作物單產強勁，導致出口競爭力轉向南美，且運輸和貿易機會有限，北美原產地的產量和利潤率下降。

As we began the quarter, global demand for both meal and oil remained strong. However, the return of Argentinian crush combined with the increased imports of used cooking oil also weighed on crush margins. As we progress later in the quarter, slower farmers selling in Argentina brought tighter S&D dynamics, driving an improvement in both crush.

在本季開始時，全球對豆粕和石油的需求仍然強勁。然而，阿根廷壓榨量的回歸以及廢食用油進口的增加也對壓榨利潤造成了壓力。隨著我們在本季度晚些時候取得進展，阿根廷農民銷售放緩帶來了更緊張的特殊和差別待遇動態，推動了壓榨量的改善。

The team performed well in this environment, leading to an executed soy crush margin of approximately $45 per metric ton for the quarter. While fundamentals supported improving crush margins as we expected, the more balanced S&D environment led to lower margins versus the prior year, translating to lower results.

該團隊在這種環境下表現良好，本季執行的大豆壓榨利潤約為每噸 45 美元。雖然基本面支持壓榨利潤率改善，正如我們預期的那樣，但更平衡的 S&D 環境導致利潤率較上年下降，從而導致業績下降。

During the quarter, there were approximately $15 million of negative timing impacts versus negative timing impacts of approximately $195 million in the comparable period. In refined products and other, results were lowered due primarily to the reversal of prior positive mark-to-market timing impacts.

本季度，負面時間影響約為 1,500 萬美元，而同期負面時間影響約為 1.95 億美元。在精煉產品和其他產品中，業績下降主要是由於先前積極的按市價計價時間影響的逆轉。

In North America, increased pretreatment capacity at renewable diesel plants and higher imports of used cooking oil caused refining margins to ease relative to the record levels of last year. The biodiesel margin structure has also come off of record levels versus the prior year as a result of lower LCFS credits and RIN values.

在北美，再生柴油廠預處理能力的提高和廢食用油進口的增加導致煉油利潤相對去年的創紀錄水準下降。由於 LCFS 信用值和 RIN 值降低，生質柴油利潤率結構也較前一年下降了創紀錄水準。

During the quarter, there were approximately $90 million of negative timing impacts versus positive timing impacts of approximately $90 million in the comparable period. Equity earnings from Wilmar of $60 million were lower compared to the prior year quarter.

本季度，負面時序影響約為 9,000 萬美元，而同期正面時序影響約為 9,000 萬美元。豐益國際的股本收益為 6,000 萬美元，低於去年同期。

Moving to slide 8, the Carbohydrate Solutions team executed well, delivering $357 million in operating profit for the second quarter, which was higher versus the prior year. Industry fundamentals in the Starches & Sweeteners space continue to be supported by strong sweetener demand and an improving starch market.

轉向幻燈片 8，碳水化合物解決方案團隊表現良好，第二季實現 3.57 億美元的營業利潤，高於前一年。澱粉和甜味劑領域的行業基本面繼續受到強勁的甜味劑需求和不斷改善的澱粉市場的支撐。

Within ethanol, markets became more constructive as we advanced later in the quarter and stocks moved lower, firming up both domestic and export margins. Demand for ethanol remained robust, supported by summer driving season in the US, solid domestic blending rates and export demand.

在乙醇方面，隨著本季稍後的上漲，市場變得更具建設性，並且庫存走低，國內和出口利潤率都堅挺。受美國夏季駕駛季節、穩定的國內混合率和出口需求的支撐，乙醇需求仍然強勁。

The Starches & Sweeteners subsegment results were higher year-over-year as strong margins and volumes in North America were partially upset by lower margins in the EMEA region as they came off historically high levels. And our operational excellence efforts have helped streamline our processes and overall efficiencies, leading to improved cost positions.

澱粉和甜味劑細分市場的業績年增，因為北美地區強勁的利潤率和銷量在一定程度上受到歐洲、中東和非洲地區利潤率下降的影響，因為它們脫離了歷史高點。我們的卓越營運努力有助於簡化流程和整體效率，從而改善成本狀況。

In the Vantage Corn Processing subsegment, strong export demand for ethanol supported solid ethanol margins, leading to higher year-over-year results.

在 Vantage 玉米加工細分市場中，對乙醇的強勁出口需求支撐了固體乙醇利潤率，導致同比業績更高。

Moving to slide 9. Nutrition revenues were $1.9 billion for the second quarter, up 3% on a year-over-year basis and sequentially improved from the first quarter. Our Human Nutrition subsegment grew 10% year-over-year, as strong M&A revenue contributions as well as improved volumes and mix and flavors, combined with strong growth in our health and wellness business, more than upset headwinds from lower pricing in the texturants market and lower plant-based protein demand.

轉向幻燈片 9。我們的人類營養細分市場年增10%，這得益於強勁的併購收入貢獻以及產量、產品組合和口味的改善，再加上我們的健康和保健業務的強勁增長，這不僅消除了質構劑市場定價較低帶來的不利因素以及較低的植物性蛋白質需求。

Our Animal Nutrition subsegment had lower revenues versus the prior year, as lower pricing and mix was partially upset by improved volumes in the base business.

我們的動物營養分部的收入較上一年有所下降，因為基礎業務銷售的增加部分影響了較低的價格和產品組合。

Please turn to slide 10. The second quarter marked another quarter of progress with sequential improvement in operating profit for the Nutrition business, when comparing to the prior year quarter, Human Nutrition results were lower, primarily driven by unplanned downtime at Decatur East and lower texturants pricing in the specialty ingredients business. Within Flavors, we have continued to improve operations, which has led to higher shipments sequentially.

請翻至投影片10。低特種配料業務的定價。在食用香精領域，我們不斷改善運營，這導致出貨量連續增加。

In Animal Nutrition, results were higher versus the prior year, as improved execution in the base business has led to higher volumes, and cost-optimization actions and lower commodity prices helped support margins, partially upset by lower pet solutions performance in North America and Brazil.

在動物營養方面，業績高於上年，因為基礎業務執行的改善導致產量增加，成本優化行動和商品價格下降有助於支撐利潤率，部分原因是北美和巴西寵物解決方案業績下降。

Turning to slide 11. For the second quarter, Other segment operating profit was $96 million, up 12% compared to the prior year period, supported by higher captive insurance results due to lower claim activity. ADM investor services results decreased on lower interest income. In corporate for the second quarter, an allocated corporate cost increased on higher global technology investments to support digital transformation efforts, increased legal fees, and increased securitization fees.

轉向投影片 11。 ADM 投資者服務績效因利息收入下降而下降。在第二季的企業方面，由於支持數位轉型工作的全球技術投資增加、法律費用和證券化費用增加，分配的企業成本增加。

Turning to our balance sheet and cash flows on slide 12, through the second quarter, the company has continued to generate healthy cash flows with $1.7 billion of operating cash flow before working capital. Our current leverage ratio is now within our targeted range, reflecting our disciplined approach to balance sheet management and robust cash flow generation. With robust financial flexibility, we have been able to support both strategic initiatives to support long-term growth and also leverage excess cash for enhanced shareholder returns.

轉向幻燈片 12 上的資產負債表和現金流，整個第二季度，該公司繼續產生健康的現金流，不計營運資本的營運現金流為 17 億美元。我們目前的槓桿率現已在我們的目標範圍內，反映了我們嚴格的資產負債表管理方法和強勁的現金流產生。憑藉強大的財務靈活性，我們既能夠支持支持長期成長的策略舉措，又能夠利用多餘的現金來提高股東回報。

During the quarter, we repurchased over 16 million shares through our open market repurchase program, returning approximately $1 billion of capital, thus making the completion of our targeted $2.3 billion of share repurchases for the year.

本季度，我們透過公開市場回購計畫回購了超過 1,600 萬股股票，返還了約 10 億美元的資本，完成了全年 23 億美元的股票回購目標。

In total, we have returned $2.8 billion of capital to shareholders through repurchases and dividends so far in 2024. We also continue to invest in the business with an enhanced focus on the reliability of our asset performance, allocating $700 million to capital expenditures.

2024 年到目前為止，我們已透過回購和股利總共向股東返還了 28 億美元的資本。

Now breaking down our expectations for the third quarter by segment on slide 13, in AS&O we anticipate the third quarter to be lower versus the prior year, but improved from the cyclical low margin environment from the second quarter.

現在按投影片 13 中的細分市場細分我們對第三季的預期，在 AS&O 中，我們預計第三季將低於去年同期，但較第二季的周期性低利潤環境有所改善。

We anticipate demand for both meal and oil to remain robust and support crush margins, however, likely lower than the levels in the prior year. We anticipate improved process volumes in the third quarter as we enhance our focus on operational excellence across our network, and as our Green Bison JV achieves full run rates.

我們預計豆粕和石油的需求將保持強勁，並支持壓榨利潤，但可能低於去年的水平。我們預計第三季的處理量將有所改善，因為我們更加重視整個網路的卓越運營，並且我們的 Green Bison 合資企業實現了滿載運轉。

It is also important to note the prior year period also included a $48 million insurance recovery related to damages from Hurricane Ida.

還需要注意的是，去年同期還包括與颶風艾達造成的損失相關的 4,800 萬美元的保險賠償。

In Carbohydrate Solutions, we anticipate a strong third quarter, but lower than the prior year as wheat milling margins moderate off elevated levels. Network optimization and operational excellence will continue to support strong earnings in the second half. We anticipate solid demand for ethanol both domestically and in the export markets, and upside opportunities could be presented if fundamentals hold.

在碳水化合物解決方案方面，我們預計第三季將表現強勁，但將低於去年同期，因為小麥加工利潤率將從高水準回落。網路優化和卓越營運將繼續支持下半年的強勁獲利。我們預期國內及出口市場對乙醇的需求強勁，如果基本面不變，可能會出現上行機會。

In Nutrition, we expect the third quarter to be higher than the prior year period. The team is systematically optimizing the organizational and operational structure across both Human and Animal Nutrition, which are expected to continue to yield cost benefits throughout the year. Coupling this with our efforts to convert pipeline opportunities and drive improved volumes, we anticipate to see continued sequential improvement in the Nutrition business throughout the year.

在營養方面，我們預期第三季將高於去年同期。該團隊正在系統地優化人類和動物營養領域的組織和營運結構，預計將在全年繼續產生成本效益。再加上我們努力轉化管道機會並推動銷售增加，我們預計營養業務全年將持續持續改善。

Turning to slide 14 to discuss our full year guidance assumptions. We anticipated increased crop production in South America would lead to lower margins across the AS&O segment in 2024. And the global soybean crush margins would likely be in the range of $35 per metric ton to $60 per metric ton for the year, with performance around the midpoint determined by the strength of soybean meal and oil demand.

轉向投影片 14，討論我們的全年指導假設。我們預計，2024 年南美洲作物產量的增加將導致 AS&O 領域的利潤率下降。弱決定。

Though the larger crop production in South America did materialize, we experienced slower than average farmers selling in that region, as well as fewer merchandising opportunities in North America through the first half, which weighed negatively on margins in act services.

儘管南美的農作物產量確實實現了成長，但我們在該地區的銷售速度低於平均農民，而且上半年北美的銷售機會較少，這對行動服務的利潤率產生了負面影響。

We expect these dynamics to continue to pressure margins in our third quarter. On soybean crush margins, we continue to see robust soybean meal demand based on solid livestock margins and some supply tightness among competing feedstuffs.

我們預計這些動態將繼續對第三季的利潤率造成壓力。在大豆壓榨利潤方面，我們繼續看到豆粕需求強勁，這是基於穩固的牲畜利潤和競爭飼料的供應緊張。

From the soybean oil side, we expect that as renewable diesel production continues to grow in the second half, the demand for vegetable oil will remain well supported. And with the prospects of a large crop in North America, we perceive increased opportunities for our interior elevator network and processing plants within Oilseeds and Carbohydrates Solutions in the second half.

從大豆油方面來看，我們預計下半年隨著再生柴油產量的持續成長，植物油的需求仍將得到良好支撐。隨著北美大豐收的前景，我們認為下半年油籽和碳水化合物解決方案領域內的內部電梯網路和加工廠的機會將會增加。

Taking this all together, our expected crush margin remains unchanged from $35 per metric ton to $60 per metric ton, with recent fundamentals supporting margins above the midpoint. With the first half results largely in line and balancing an improving crush environment with less opportunities and merchandising in the second half, our 2024 earnings per share range remains unchanged. Looking at the other metrics included in our total consolidated guidance, our full year 2024 indications remain unchanged. Back to you, Juan.

綜上所述，我們的預期壓榨利潤維持在每噸 35 美元至每噸 60 美元不變，近期基本面支撐利潤高於中點。由於上半年業績基本上符合預期，並且在下半年機會和商品銷售減少的情況下改善擠壓環境，我們的 2024 年每股收益範圍保持不變。從我們整體綜合指導中包含的其他指標來看，我們的 2024 年全年指標保持不變。回到你身邊，胡安。

Thank you Ismael . As we think about the rest of 2024 and the lead up to 2025, we remain optimistic about ADM's ability to execute against our priorities while remaining agile in an evolving environment. The pressures of the current commodity cycle do not seem to be demand-driven as we see continued robust demand for meal and oil. We will continue to focus on how we can actively manage our global footprint to best match these realities moving through the remainder of the year.

謝謝伊斯梅爾。當我們考慮 2024 年剩餘時間以及 2025 年之前的情況時，我們對 ADM 執行我們的優先事項同時在不斷變化的環境中保持敏捷的能力保持樂觀。當前大宗商品週期的壓力似乎並非由需求驅動，因為我們看到對豆粕和石油的需求持續強勁。我們將繼續關注如何積極管理我們的全球足跡，以最好地適應今年剩餘時間的這些現實。

Our processing capacities are improving through the year across our production operations, including the ramp-up of green Bison to full capacity and growing production in Ukraine. And our forward order book indicates that ADM is well positioned to drive value through improved margin opportunities as we move into the back half of the year.

我們的生產業務的加工能力在這一年中不斷提高，包括將綠色野牛的產能提高到滿載以及在烏克蘭的產量不斷增長。我們的遠期訂單簿表明，隨著我們進入今年下半年，ADM 已準備好透過改善利潤機會來推動價值。

Ethanol results have remained robust, and we expect solid demand through 2024. Assuming fundamentals tools, we have an opportunity for upsizing this part of the business through the year. Our initiatives to manage through the current cycle are expanding additional margin opportunities and opening up new channels to our customers, whether in the growth of destination marketing, the expansion of digital technologies focused on farmer needs, the extension of our regeneration programs and partnerships or the growth of our bio solutions platform.

乙醇業績依然強勁，我們預計到 2024 年需求強勁。我們在當前週期中的管理舉措是擴大額外的利潤機會，並為我們的客戶開闢新的管道，無論是目的地行銷的成長、專注於農民需求的數位技術的擴展、我們的再生計劃和合作夥伴關係的擴展還是我們的生物解決方案平台的發展。

So as market conditions improve, ADM has even more exciting platforms for growth and differentiation. As noted, we expect to see a significant portion of the planned $500 million cost savings driven by the drive for execution excellence to be realized by the end of this initial year of the program setting up for potential upside in 2025 as more projects are identified and executing.

因此，隨著市場狀況的改善，ADM 擁有更令人興奮的成長和差異化平台。如前所述，我們預計，計劃的5 億美元成本節約中的很大一部分將在該計劃的第一年年底實現，該計劃是由卓越執行驅動力推動的，隨著更多項目的確定和實施，到2025 年將實現潛在的上升空間。

Our nutrition business and move beyond green shoots of positive momentum. We now see cyclical improvement across the broader portfolio, flavors, health, and wellness animal nutrition. As this continue through year end, we expect a return to growth that will continue and expand in 2025.

我們的營養品業務呈現出初露萌芽和超越的積極勢頭。我們現在看到更廣泛的產品組合、口味、健康和保健動物營養的周期性改善。隨著這種情況持續到年底，我們預計成長將在 2025 年持續並擴大。

In short, progress against our priorities, along with our experience team's ability to pivot in response to an ever-changing external environment give us confidence in a solid close to the year and set the ADM up well for the continued growth trajectory for our full business in 2025.

簡而言之，我們的優先事項取得的進展，以及我們經驗豐富的團隊應對不斷變化的外部環境的能力，讓我們對今年的收官工作充滿信心，並為ADM 為我們整個業務的持續增長軌跡奠定了良好的基礎2025年。

Thank you. Operator, please open the line for questions.

謝謝。接線員，請開通提問線。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。 （操作員說明）

Andrew Strelzik, BMO.

安德魯‧斯特雷齊克 (Andrew Strelzik)，BMO。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I guess I wanted to ask about the guidance. It seems like you tempered a little bit the language on the AS&O side. And nothing else really was changed, and you kept the EPS guidance.

早安.感謝您提出問題。我想我想問指導。看來您對 AS&O 方面的語言進行了一些調整。其他什麼都沒有真正改變，並且保留了 EPS 指導。

And so I guess I'm curious if there are kind of any other underlying offsets, or if you're thinking about kind of the range differently at all. And maybe, as we've seen more crush margin strength materialized through the year, how much visibility you have to that?

所以我想我很好奇是否存在任何其他潛在的抵消，或者您是否正在以不同的方式思考範圍。也許，正如我們看到這一年中壓榨利潤實力增強一樣，您對此有多少可見度？

Yes, thank you, Andrew. Listen, as you know, we have three businesses. Ag Services, I know it is in this, what we call a transition year, if you will, a rebalancing year from tight supplies to more comfortable S&D. So we expected to have a Q2 that was facing challenging conditions, which we did. And I think we navigated well.

是的，謝謝你，安德魯。聽著，如你所知，我們有三項業務。農業服務業，我知道這是我們所說的過渡年，如果你願意的話，是從供應緊張到更舒適的 S&D 的再平衡年。因此，我們預計第二季將面臨充滿挑戰的條件，我們做到了。我認為我們進展順利。

As we look at the rest of the year and the improvements we have over the quarter in terms of crush margins, we are executing at this point in time, even outside the range of $35 to $60 per metric ton that we gave so.

當我們審視今年剩餘時間以及本季壓榨利潤的改進時，我們此時正在執行，甚至超出了我們給出的每噸 35 至 60 美元的範圍。

But of course, when you think about our forecast for Ag Services & Oilseeds was heavily weighted on Q4. So to a certain degree, until we can put more businesses into Q4, it's probably that we have the same kind of visibility we had before. That’s where we decided not to touch the range.

但當然，當你考慮到我們對農業服務和油籽的預測時，第四季的權重很大。因此，在某種程度上，直到我們能夠在第四季度投入更多業務之前，我們可能會擁有與以前相同的可見度。這就是我們決定不觸及該範圍的地方。

On the other hand, Carb Solutions continue to be improving. And I think that as Ismael said in his remarks, if current ethanol margins that have improved over the quarter continue to stay that way, we could have an upside there.

另一方面，碳水化合物解決方案不斷改進。我認為，正如伊斯梅爾在演講中所說，如果當前本季有所改善的乙醇利潤率繼續保持這種狀態，我們可能會有上漲空間。

And certainly Nutrition continues to make significant improvements year-over-year now versus just being sequential before. So we're optimistic about the second half. We just didn't want to change the guidance at this point in time since it's heavily loaded towards Q4.

當然，與以前相比，營養現在繼續逐年取得顯著改善。所以我們對下半年持樂觀態度。我們只是不想在此時改變指導，因為第四季的負荷很重。

Tom Palmer, Citi.

湯姆·帕爾默，花旗銀行。

Good morning and thanks for the question. I wanted to ask on the nutrition side, you reiterated the outlook for segment profit to increase year-over-year for the full year. I first just wanted to confirm that this is after adding back the write-down in the fourth quarter. So off, I think kind of a $495 billion base.

早安，謝謝你的提問。我想問在營養方面，您重申了全年部門利潤同比增長的前景。我首先想確認這是在第四季加回減記之後的結果。所以，我認為基礎是 4950 億美元。

And then second, I wondered if you could elaborate a bit on the key drivers of these improvements over the next couple of quarters, the implication would seem to be that 3Q is up year-over-year and sorry, the implication of 3Q being up year-over-year. Would it seem to imply like a pretty meaningful increase between 2Q and 3Q?

其次，我想知道您是否可以詳細說明未來幾個季度這些改進的關鍵驅動因素，這意味著第三季度同比增長，抱歉，第三季度增長的含義一年又一年。這似乎意味著第二季和第三季之間出現了相當有意義的成長嗎？

I think historically we've seen the opposite where 2Q is a bit more seasonally strong. So just any help on that sequential improvement and then off just the base that we're looking to grow as we look at this year?

我認為從歷史上看，我們看到了相反的情況，即第二季的季節性更強。那麼，對連續改進以及我們今年希望成長的基礎是否有任何幫助？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes Thom. The base is what you described, you're correct in your assumption there. Let me give you \some feel here. The sequential improvement continues in the business, as we said, and that when we started looking at Q3, it looks like it's going to be year-over-year improvement, which marks a significant improvement in Q3 versus Q2.

是的，湯姆。基礎是你所描述的，你的假設是正確的。讓我給你一些感受。正如我們所說，業務持續改善，當我們開始關注第三季時，看起來將同比改善，這標誌著第三季相對於第二季的顯著改善。

If I go through the different end segments, if you will, flavors continues to do well. I think the business is up in sales, 6%, excluding M&A. Of course, still reeling with some higher costs because of you know all the demand fulfilment improvements we need to make, but demand is coming back to normal recovering after the destocking period.

如果我回顧一下不同的末端部分，如果你願意的話，口味仍然表現良好。我認為該業務的銷售額成長了 6%（不包括併購）。當然，仍然面臨一些更高的成本，因為你知道我們需要做出的所有需求滿足改進，但去庫存期後需求正在恢復正常。

So we feel good about our pipeline there, we feel good about our prospects for flavors. Specialty Ingredients continue to have a challenge in time. Demand is soft and we are working through our plant issues. Also we have the issue of textaurants or more specifically emulsifiers in that area are coming down after significant record prices last year, if you will.

因此，我們對我們在那裡的管道感到滿意，我們對口味的前景感到滿意。特種配料繼續面臨時間挑戰。需求疲軟，我們正在解決工廠問題。此外，我們還面臨著該領域的質構劑或更具體的乳化劑的問題，在去年價格創下歷史新高之後，如果你願意的話，價格正在下降。

Health and wellness continue to be very strong. Biotic sales growth is up to 22%. And I think that the pipeline there and the prospects continue to be very strong. When you think about Animal sector, in Animal Nutrition, excluding pet, improvement continues.

健康和保健仍然非常強勁。生物製品銷售額成長高達22%。我認為那裡的渠道和前景仍然非常強勁。當你想到動物部門時，在動物營養方面，不包括寵物，改善仍在繼續。

And based on a strong self-help plan, so it's pretty much under our control, so we feel good about that. Pet Solutions is finding mixed results around the globe. If, I would say, Brazil market conditions continue to be challenging, North America, specifically the US, is still having some demand fulfillment issues.

基於強大的自助計劃，所以它幾乎在我們的控制之下，所以我們對此感覺良好。 Pet Solutions 在全球範圍內發現了不同的結果。我想說，如果巴西市場狀況繼續充滿挑戰，那麼北美，特別是美國，仍然存在一些需求滿足問題。

But we are looking good in terms of the improvements we are making towards Q3. And Mexico, our B2C business continues to be very strong. So I would say, overall, with the exception of specialty ingredients, which is the weak part, the rest of the business is looking good. So we expect significant improvements sequentially and I will start making them improvements year-over-year.

但就第三季的改進而言，我們看起來不錯。在墨西哥，我們的 B2C 業務仍然非常強勁。所以我想說，整體而言，除了特種原料是薄弱環節之外，其餘業務看起來都不錯。因此，我們預計會相繼出現重大改進，我將開始逐年改進它們。

Heather Jones, Heather Jones Research.

希瑟瓊斯，希瑟瓊斯研究。

Good morning, thanks for the question. I was just wanted to ask about oilfield process polish volumes. They were up 1% for the quarter, but in Q1 they were up nearly 9%. And you remarked that utilization of Spirit word was four for the quarter. So just wondering if there were one-time issues during the quarter and if so, have it's been rectified in order to reach of mid to high single digits growth outlook for the year.

早安，謝謝你的提問。我只是想詢問油田工藝拋光量。該季度增長了 1%，但第一季增長了近 9%。您指出，該季度靈言的使用次數為四次。因此，我想知道本季是否存在一次性問題，如果有，是否已修正，以便實現今年中高個位數的成長前景。

Yes, thank you, Heather. As you said, yes, Spiritwood is performing very well, so is coming up in volumes. Traditionally, I would say in North America, when we have our low part of the cycle in North America, where South America has all the capacity, we take shutdowns in anticipation of demand not being very strong and we want to have our plants ready for the harvest.

是的，謝謝你，希瑟。正如您所說，是的，Spiritwood 的表現非常好，因此銷售量也不斷增加。傳統上，我會說在北美，當我們在北美處於週期的低點時，而南美擁有所有產能，我們會因預期需求不是很強勁而採取停產措施，我們希望讓我們的工廠做好準備豐收。

So, I think that's a traditional seasonal slowdown that we do. So, nothing unusual in that regard.

所以，我認為這是我們所做的傳統季節性放緩。所以，在這方面沒有什麼不尋常的。

Adam Samuelson, Goldman Sachs.

亞當·薩繆爾森，高盛。

Yes, thank you. Good morning, everyone. I was hoping to maybe drill in on some of the cost and productivity initiatives that you have underway right now. And I think, one, there's a target of $500 million savings by the end of 2025, kind of split between the two years.

是的，謝謝。大家，早安。我希望能夠深入了解你們目前正在進行的一些成本和生產力計劃。我認為，第一，到 2025 年底節省 5 億美元的目標是在兩年之間分配。

Can you maybe provide an update on what you've realized to date in 2024. What the 2024 savings kind of are expected to be on a net basis and maybe any additional color in terms of where within the portfolio those are actually hitting the P&L? I really appreciate it. Thank you.

您能否提供您在 2024 年迄今所實現的最新情況？ 預計 2024 年的淨節省額是多少？對此，我真的非常感激。謝謝。

Yes, thank you Adam for the question. Yes, we're very proud of how this initiative that we put together at the beginning of the year has continued to accelerate. So far, we are on track. If you think about $500 million in over two years, that's about %125 million per half. We delivered about $127 million in the first half.

是的，謝謝亞當提出的問題。是的，我們對今年年初制定的這項舉措不斷加速推進感到非常自豪。到目前為止，我們已步入正軌。如果您考慮兩年多的時間達到 5 億美元，則大約相當於每半年 1.25 億美元。上半年我們交付了約 1.27 億美元。

So we're pretty much on track there. But this group of activities and projects and ideas continue to accelerate. So that's not going to be linear. It's going to be an accelerated bringing up to the P&L and to the bottom line. So we feel very good about it. We are very confident that our forecast shows that we're going to deliver on the $500 million way before the two year remark.

所以我們已經步入正軌了。但這組活動、項目和想法仍在加速。所以這不會是線性的。這將加速提升損益表和利潤。所以我們對此感覺非常好。我們非常有信心，我們的預測顯示我們將在兩年前實現 5 億美元的目標。

With regard to what's the distribution of that, of course, sometimes when you have more bigger manufacturing units or bigger energy consumption, like in Carb Solutions, you have more opportunities to bring that. So I would say, if I were to name a ranking today.

當然，關於其分佈情況，有時當你擁有更大的製造單位或更大的能源消耗時，就像在碳水化合物解決方案中一樣，你有更多的機會來實現這一點。所以我想說，如果我今天要列出一個排名的話。

Initially, out of the gate, we see more in Carb Solutions and Nutrition because of some of the improvements we needed to make in demand fulfillment, and maybe Ag Services & Oilseeds having to pick a momentum during the second half, so we will see that.

最初，我們在碳水化合物解決方案和營養方面看到了更多，因為我們需要在滿足需求方面做出一些改進，也許農業服務和油籽必須在下半年找到動力，所以我們會看到。

So -- but overall, I think good distribution of projects around the four geographies and the three businesses, and again, catching momentum when you have a big organization that you need to promote all these activities, so not everybody starts at the same time. So we feel very good by being on track, and again, we think ahead of schedule for our $500 million over two years.

所以，但總的來說，我認為項目在四個地區和三個業務周圍的良好分佈，並且當你有一個需要推廣所有這些活動的大型組織時，再次抓住勢頭，所以不是每個人都同時開始。因此，我們對步入正軌感到非常高興，我們再次認為，我們提前兩年實現了 5 億美元的計劃。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

本‧瑟雷爾，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, yes, good morning, Juan, Ismael. Thanks for taking my question. Wanted to go back to the Nutrition business and just understand a little bit what your cadence is into the back half as the Decatur East plan is going to come back in.

嗨，是的，早上好，胡安，伊斯梅爾。感謝您提出我的問題。我想回到營養業務，只是了解您進入後半段的節奏，因為迪凱特東計劃即將回歸。

You've selected the $25 million higher fixed cost observation. We just wanted to understand how immediately are you going to be able to gain this back, so as we move into the ramp-up of this, the East part of Decatur, how should we think about those cost headwinds that we've seen over the past?

您選擇了固定成本較高的 2500 萬美元觀測。我們只是想了解您如何立即能夠收回成本，因此當我們進入迪凱特東部地區的擴張階段時，我們應該如何考慮我們已經看到的那些成本逆風過去？

Is that to be recovered in ‘24, or is that more of the ‘25 thing? Thank you.

是要在 24 小時內恢復，還是 25 小時後才恢復？謝謝。

Yes, thank you for the question. From the point of view of plant protein, we do expect the plants to come online again in Q4, so we will see some of that recovery coming in. I think as we look at the second half, we significantly pulled quite a bit of volume out in 2023 as a result, obviously, of the Decatur East facility, but also, we had in demand fulfillment.

是的，謝謝你的提問。從植物蛋白的角度來看，我們確實預計植物將在第四季度再次上線，因此我們將看到一些復甦。迪凱特東工廠的建設，我們將於2023 年推出，我們也滿足了需求。

So I did report -- we did report a 3% revenue growth, as we look into the second half, we are seeing an acceleration of that, and we expect to grow, to be on track to deliver roughly in the mid-single digit growth when we bring back some of these facilities and demand fulfillment capabilities that we had lost in the second half of ‘23.

所以我確實報告了——我們確實報告了 3% 的收入增長，當我們展望下半年時，我們看到了這種增長的加速，我們預計會增長，有望實現大約中個位數的增長當我們恢復23 年下半年失去的一些設施和需求滿足能力時，我們就會成長。

(multiple speakers) I would say that maybe complimenting Ismael, I think is a ’25 impact not very much ’24 impact given in the Q4 so.

（多個發言者）我想說，也許是對伊斯梅爾的稱讚，我認為第四季度給出的 25 影響不是很大 - 24 影響。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

馬納夫古普塔，瑞銀集團。

Hi. A quick question. We are seeing a very strong rebound in ethanol margins, and it's just seasonal. Is it what's else going out there? Do you think this sustains itself in the second half, and then how does that position you well in the Sweeteners and Starches business across in the second half? Thank you.

你好。一個簡單的問題。我們看到乙醇利潤率出現非常強勁的反彈，而且這只是季節性的。外面還有什麼事情嗎？您認為這種情況在下半年會持續下去嗎？謝謝。

Yes, thank you, Manav, for the question. We have been seeing for a while that exports have been increasing year-over-year, so ethanol continues to be one of the cheapest alkoxylates out there, and it's very competitive with gasoline in many parts of the world.

是的，謝謝馬納夫提出的問題。一段時間以來，我們看到出口量逐年增加，因此乙醇仍然是最便宜的烷氧基化物之一，並且在世界許多地區與汽油相比非常有競爭力。

So we have seen a strong domestic demand because of miles driven in the US, especially now with the summer. We have been seeing good blending in the US. I think the price of ethanol is very competitive to encourage blending. And we have seen exports at levels that we've never seen before, probably north of 1.7, maybe even 1.9 billion gallons per year.

因此，由於美國的行駛里程，尤其是現在的夏季，我們看到了強勁的國內需求。我們在美國看到了良好的融合。我認為乙醇的價格非常有競爭力，可以鼓勵混合。我們看到出口量達到了以前從未見過的水平，每年可能超過 1.7 加侖，甚至 19 億加侖。

So I think that was a very logical kind of when you see that the strong demand was very logical, that prices will rebound. And, again, we don't see any change for now. It will depend on how much the US produces, of course, of ethanol. But at this point in time, margins are holding, and we think that it bodes well for a strong Q3.

所以我認為，當你看到強勁的需求是非常合乎邏輯的時候，價格將會反彈，這是一個非常合乎邏輯的情況。再說一次，我們目前沒有看到任何變化。當然，這將取決於美國乙醇的產量。但目前，利潤率保持不變，我們認為這預示著第三季的強勁表現。

In terms of Sweeteners and Starches, that business continues to have very robust volumes and very good margins. If anything, you can see a little bit of a pullback of the energy complex, if you will. That bodes well for manufacturing costs, because these are big facilities that consume a lot of energy. So natural gas prices being close to $2 is a little bit of a tailwind for us. So, Carb Solution is having a very good year so, and we expect that to continue.

就甜味劑和澱粉而言，該業務繼續擁有非常強勁的銷售和非常好的利潤。如果你願意的話，你可以看到能量複合體有一點回落。這對製造成本來說是個好兆頭，因為這些都是消耗大量能源的大型設施。因此，接近 2 美元的天然氣價格對我們來說有點順風順水。所以，Carb Solution 今年表現得非常好，我們預計這種情況會持續下去。

I'd like to compliment on the Sweeteners & Starches side, as you know, there's been a fairly low corn crop in Mexico, and that has certainly helped with exports of sweetener and starches products into Mexico. So it's created a demand pool into Mexico that has helped the overall market structure for our business in North America.

我想對甜味劑和澱粉方面表示讚揚，如您所知，墨西哥的玉米產量相當低，這無疑有助於向墨西哥出口甜味劑和澱粉產品。因此，它創造了墨西哥的需求池，這有助於我們北美業務的整體市場結構。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾，美國銀行。

Thank you very much. I just wanted to clarify a little bit on the crush margins. So again, I think you made in your prepared remarks a comment that soybean crush margins were $45 per ton in Q2, and at least based on the report, EBITDA, I don't know if I'm missing something, and I may not be fully comparable, but it looks like your crush margins per ton were much, much lower than that. So what am I missing here? Are you easier, I guess, benchmarked the way you're presenting the $35 to $60 material different from what we would see, for example, on Bloomberg synthetic margin?

非常感謝。我只是想澄清一點關於壓榨利潤的問題。所以，我想你在準備好的發言中評論道，第二季度大豆壓榨利潤為每噸 45 美元，至少根據報告，EBITDA，我不知道我是否遺漏了一些東西，而且我可能不會完全可比，但看起來你們的每噸壓榨利潤都比這低得多。那我在這裡缺少什麼？我想，您是否更容易對您呈現 35 至 60 美元材料的方式進行基準測試，該方式與我們在彭博合成保證金上看到的不同？

And you made also the comment that you recently executed the trades, I guess, above the top end of the range, above $60. So can you elaborate a little bit on that? Are we talking about just one of trades, or is it something that you're actually consistently generating so far in Q3 ?

您還評論說，您最近執行的交易，我猜，高於該範圍的上限，即 60 美元以上。能詳細說明一下嗎？我們談論的只是其中一筆交易，還是您在第三季迄今為止一直持續產生的交易？

Sure. Let me clarify for you. First of all, the $45 per ton is the $45 per ton we made this year. So we can work offline to walk you through the arithmetic, if you will, but there's nothing strange on that. If I go around the world, if you will, on crush margins, at this point between $60 to $70 in the US, that's where we are making businesses, about similar margins for soy in Europe, Brazil may be something between $10 and $50 depending on their domestic plants or export plants, China, $20 to $25, that kind of the margin environment.

當然。讓我為你澄清一下。首先，45美元一噸是我們今年做的45美元一噸。因此，如果您願意的話，我們可以離線工作來引導您完成算術，但這並沒有什麼奇怪的。如果我環遊世界，如果你願意的話，就壓榨利潤而言，目前美國的壓榨利潤在60 至70 美元之間，這就是我們開展業務的地方，歐洲、巴西的大豆利潤率大約在10 至50美元之間，取決於在他們的國內工廠或出口工廠，中國，20到25美元，這樣的利潤環境。

I would say when we started the quarter, we were doing margins in the low end of our range and as maybe Argentine farmers did not sell, as maybe the industry was expecting, we saw more demand for soybean milk coming into North America that make an improvement in our crush margins, so we finished the quarter a little bit better than maybe we thought, about the $45 per ton.

我想說，當我們本季開始時，我們的利潤率處於範圍的低端，也許阿根廷農民沒有出售，正如行業所預期的那樣，我們看到北美對豆奶的需求增加，這使得我們的壓榨利潤有所改善，因此本季的業績比我們想像的要好一些，約為每噸45 美元。

We are selling, we said before that we were relatively open going out. We have some of the Q3 sold, what we don't have sold, we are selling at about $60 to $70 per ton. So that's the crush realities at this point in time.

我們在賣，我們之前說過，我們出去是比較開放的。我們已經出售了一些第三季的產品，我們還沒有出售的產品，我們的售價約為每噸 60 至 70 美元。這就是此時此刻令人沮喪的現實。

So I think that then we're going to leap into Q4 where we have hopefully a very large crop here in the US. Crops look terrific so far in the US, so we expect to have plenty of raw materials in that. And demand for soybean milk continues to be strong around the world and I think low prices have incentivated demand.

因此，我認為我們將進入第四季度，希望美國的產量非常大。到目前為止，美國的農作物看起來很棒，因此我們預計會有充足的原料。全球對豆奶的需求持續強勁，我認為低價刺激了需求。

Demand is driven a lot by poultry, as you know, and soybean milk has been increasing in the Russians. And then on the oil side, we continue to see a little bit more RGG plants coming on the stream on the second half, so that will bode well as well. So we are positive about crush margins for the rest of the year for North America.

如您所知，需求很大程度上是由家禽推動的，而俄羅斯人的豆奶需求量一直在增加。然後在石油方面，我們繼續看到更多的 RGG 工廠在下半年投產，因此這也是一個好兆頭。因此，我們對北美今年剩餘時間的壓榨利潤持樂觀態度。

Dushyant Ailani, Jefferies.

杜希安特·艾拉尼，杰弗里斯。

Hi. Can you hear me? Yes. Thank you for taking my question. I just want to talk on the CapEx guide. I think it's improved or it’s increased by about $300 million. I just wanted to see what's driving that.

你好。你聽得到我嗎？是的。感謝您回答我的問題。我只想談談資本支出指南。我認為它有所改善或增加了約 3 億美元。我只是想看看是什麼推動了這一點。

Yes. I think CapEx is always, the prioritization of CapEx is always NDE, so maintenance and safety and quality we do first. So whatever the plants need at any point in time. So that's a bottom up, roll up of their respective needs.

是的。我認為資本支出始終是，資本支出的優先順序始終是 NDE，因此我們首先要做的是維護、安全和品質。所以無論植物在任何時間點需要什麼。這是自下而上、總結他們各自的需求。

Then we fill it up with cost projects, which the execution excellence challenge that we have to deliver $500 million and bring in more ideas, some of those ideas require CapEx. So you can see that growing and then there are growth projects around the world.

然後我們用成本項目來填充它，這是卓越執行的挑戰，我們必須交付 5 億美元並引入更多想法，其中一些想法需要資本支出。所以你可以看到這種成長，然後世界各地都有成長項目。

So I would say nothing specifically is a little bit of everybody else executing on their plans. So I would say nothing. There is a little bit of CapEx inflation as well in our numbers because things are a little bit more expensive than maybe they were two years ago.

所以我想說，沒有什麼特別的，就是其他人都在執行他們的計畫。所以我什麼也不說。我們的數據中也存在一點資本支出通膨，因為東西可能比兩年前貴了一點。

Steven Haynes, Morgan Stanley.

史蒂文‧海恩斯，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to come back to Argentina. You mentioned it's kind of been a bit of a tailwind kind of towards the end of the second quarter on some slower than expected farmer selling.

嗨，早安。感謝您提出我的問題。我想回到阿根廷。您提到，在第二季末，由於一些農民的銷售速度慢於預期，這有點順風順水。

So how are you kind of thinking about how that evolves over the balance of the year and what's you kind of helps us think about the risk Argentia kind of coming back into the market in a more meaningful way going forward? Thank you.

那麼，您如何看待這種情況在今年剩餘的時間裡會如何演變？謝謝。

Yes. So what happened in Argentina, there was a big expectation for the unification of the exchange rate. And of course that hasn't happened so far. On the contrary, the GAAP has increased to about 50% or 55%. So at this point in time, when you combine low commodity prices because of all the abundant production and then the exchange rate, it's not very favorable for the farmer to sell.

是的。所以阿根廷發生的事情，讓人們對匯率的統一抱持著很大的期待。當然，到目前為止這種情況還沒有發生。相反，GAAP 已增加至 50% 或 55% 左右。因此，在這個時候，當你將由於產量充足而導致商品價格較低以及匯率結合起來時，對農民出售來說並不是很有利。

So the farmer in Argentina is selling a little bit more corn but trying to hold the beans. Will the government, so the question is, will the government be able to unify the exchange rate? I think the government's priorities right now is to fight inflation. And that was the whole plan.

因此，阿根廷農民正在出售更多的玉米，但試圖保留豆類。政府會嗎，那麼問題來了，政府能不能統一匯率呢？我認為政府目前的首要任務是對抗通貨膨脹。這就是整個計劃。

So they don't have a lot of room to maneuver to change something because the moment you divide, you change the exchange rate, everything is translated into prices. And the priority right now is to control prices. So I think this is for the good of Argentina long-term as a country, but I think short term will present a problem for the farmer to sell.

因此，他們沒有太多的空間來改變某些事情，因為當你進行分割時，你改變了匯率，一切都會轉化為價格。現在的首要任務是控制價格。因此，我認為這對阿根廷作為一個國家的長期利益有利，但我認為短期內會為農民銷售帶來問題。

So I think the farmer will hold as much as possible unless there is a special program that the government rolls out that they don't seem to have a lot of latitude to do so at this point in time. So I think we need to be cautious about the thinking that a lot of the crop will come as a glut to Argentina. It hasn't happened so far.

因此，我認為農民將盡可能多地持有，除非政府推出一項特殊計劃，而他們目前似乎沒有太多的自由度來這樣做。因此，我認為我們需要謹慎對待阿根廷的大量農作物將出現過剩的想法。到目前為止還沒有發生。

Heather Jones, Heather Jones Research.

希瑟瓊斯，希瑟瓊斯研究。

Thanks for taking the follow up. I wanted to ask about the Chinese UCO into the US. situation. So our understanding is those are slow some and then there is an expectation that with Europe imposing anti-dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel that China may shift more of their UCO to that market and not as much as the US. And just wondering what you all are seeing there and how you are expecting that to evolve throughout the year?

感謝您的跟進。我想問中國UCO進入美國的情況。情況。因此，我們的理解是，這些進展有些緩慢，然後預計，隨著歐洲對中國生物柴油徵收反傾銷稅，中國可能會將更多的 UCO 轉移到該市場，而不是像美國那樣多。只是想知道你們都在那裡看到了什麼以及你們預計這一年會如何發展？

Yes, thank you, Heather. So of course there was a lot of noise by the industry about the prospects of maybe some adulterated or not quite truly UCO coming into the US and checking for that. So we have seen some significant moderation of that coming.

是的，謝謝你，希瑟。因此，當然，業界對於一些摻假或不完全真正的 UCO 進入美國並進行檢查的前景有很多噪音。因此，我們已經看到這種情況即將出現一些顯著的緩和。

I don't want to pinpoint a particular reason, but part of that what you mentioned maybe in Europe is true as well. Europe will not allow raw crops to be part of that. So as they start to build SIF, they will have to use more UCO. So it's naturally that some of those flows would move to Europe.

我不想指出具體原因，但你提到的部分原因可能在歐洲也是如此。歐洲不會允許原料作物成為其中的一部分。因此，當他們開始建造 SIF 時，他們將不得不使用更多的 UCO。因此，其中一些資金流自然會流向歐洲。

The current North American feedstock market is better balanced after the situation we have in Q1. So I think also we saw palm oil going up in prices. So I think that it's bodes better for soybean oil going forward for the US.

繼第一季的情況之後，目前的北美原料市場更加平衡。所以我認為我們也看到棕櫚油價格上漲。因此，我認為這對美國豆油的未來發展是個好兆頭。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾，美國銀行。

Yes. Thank you very much. I just want to ask about the ethanol outlook, and I know you talked about a lot of factors here, but clearly your commentary on the starches and sweeteners, which include, I guess, the wet meals, was more negative, saying about lower ethanol margins year-on-year, whereas VCP, being the dry meals, it was much, much higher year-on-year.

是的。非常感謝。我只是想問乙醇的前景，我知道您在這裡討論了很多因素，但顯然您對澱粉和甜味劑（我猜包括濕餐）的評論更加負面，說的是較低的乙醇與去年同期相比，VCP 的利潤率更高，而VCP（乾糧）的利潤率比去年同期高得多。

So can you discuss a little bit the differentiation there, and it seems like a lot of the delta is from the export side. So essentially, are you seeing different pricing, different margins from the exports, and as they become a much more important part of the ethanol mix, which we weren't used to in the past, is this something that besides being a driver of demand and operating rates, is it something that's margin accretive, or do the netbacks tend to be lower for export ethanol?

那麼您能否討論一下那裡的差異，看起來很多增量來自出口方面。所以本質上，你是否看到不同的定價，不同的出口利潤，以及隨著它們成為乙醇組合中更重要的一部分，這是我們過去不習慣的，這除了是需求的驅動因素之外和開工率，這是否會增加利潤，或者出口乙醇的淨回報往往較低？

Yes, there are several factors, Salvator, here in place. So first of all, the ethanol margins are the ethanol margins, and they are better right now. They are probably twice as big as they were at the beginning of the quarter.

是的，薩爾瓦托，有幾個因素。首先，乙醇利潤率就是乙醇利潤率，而且現在更好。它們的規模可能是本季初的兩倍。

There are some particular export markets where we can export as a premium, and we're taking advantage on that. I don't have top of my head where we export those from in terms of plants. But at this point in time, I would say the challenge, not the challenge, but maybe the activity has been on the logistics side to make sure that we can fulfill all the exports and we can get the materials to the ports, because, as you said, and I said before, demand has been very strong, and margins are very good, so we need to take advantage on that.

有一些特定的出口市場，我們可以以溢價出口，我們正在利用這一點。我不知道我們從哪裡出口這些植物。但在這個時候，我想說的是挑戰，而不是挑戰，但也許活動是在物流方面，以確保我們能夠完成所有出口，並且我們可以將材料運送到港口，因為，你說過，我之前也說過，需求非常強勁，利潤率非常好，所以我們需要利用這一點。

Plants are running well. As I said, costs are coming a little bit lower, so this all bodes well for the forecast. And there's no reason for demand to change significantly outside of the world. We have a basket of countries where we are exporting is very well balanced. So at this point in time, we're looking at Q3 with optimism.

工廠運作良好。正如我所說，成本會稍微降低，因此這對預測來說是個好兆頭。世界之外的需求沒有理由顯著改變。我們有一籃子國家的出口非常平衡。因此，目前，我們對第三季持樂觀態度。

Andrew Strelzik, BMO.

安德魯‧斯特雷齊克 (Andrew Strelzik)，BMO。

Great. Thank you. I wanted to just get your perspective on broader biofuels policy. As we get deeper into the back part of the year here, we're getting close to some upcoming changes obviously the PTC maybe decisions around the RBO import export dynamic so just was curious for some updated thoughts about how those policy shifts will impact your business and whether you think there's risk on the timing of some of those things getting done.

偉大的。謝謝。我想了解您對更廣泛的生物燃料政策的看法。隨著今年下半年的深入，我們即將迎來一些即將發生的變化，顯然 PTC 可能會圍繞 RBO 進出口動態做出決定，因此我很好奇有關這些政策變化將如何影響您的業務的一些最新想法以及您是否認為完成其中一些事情的時間安排有風險。

It feels like some of the timing around biofuels policy has been a moving target in a number of different ways. So just curious for how you're thinking about that progressing and impacting your business from here? Thanks.

感覺生物燃料政策的一些時機在許多方面都是一個不斷變化的目標。那麼只是想知道您如何看待這項進展並影響您的業務？謝謝。

Yes. I think all these regulatory framework creates movements and uncertainty, the more clarity the industry can have of course the better. I think you have to think about the message around biodiesel blenders credit to a producer credit is, at the end of the day we still have a higher mandate for 2025 and a real deficit in 2024.

是的。我認為所有這些監管框架都會產生變化和不確定性，行業越清晰當然越好。我認為你必須考慮一下有關生物柴油混合機信貸對生產者信貸的信息是，最終我們仍然有 2025 年更高的任務和 2024 年的實際赤字。

So I think that you have to think that vegetables oil will be part of the solution to filling that mandate, ultimately the pie is getting bigger here and not the vegetable oil should be gaining on the low CI products especially now that California's CFS credits have come down a little bit.

所以我認為你必須認為植物油將成為滿足這一要求的解決方案的一部分，最終這裡的蛋糕越來越大，而不是植物油應該在低 CI 產品上獲得收益，尤其是現在加州的 CFS 信用已經到來下降一點點。

So I think that the problem with these are the short terms gyrations of that is very difficult to know what's going to happen Q4 so maybe we have accelerated buying in Q4 maybe we have a little bit of a slowdown in Q1. But I think overall as we look at that overall policy is constructive for all these and we see more demand and the pie getting bigger.

因此，我認為這些問題的問題在於短期波動，很難知道第四季度會發生什麼，所以也許我們在第四季度加速了購買，也許第一季略有放緩。但我認為總體而言，總體政策對所有這些都是建設性的，我們看到需求更多，蛋糕越來越大。

So I think it's all positive for crush margins in the medium or long term calling it by quarter is more difficult.

因此，我認為，從中長期來看，這對壓榨利潤來說都是正面的，而按季度計算會更困難。

We have no further questions, so I'll now hand back to Megan Britt for closing remarks.

我們沒有其他問題了，所以我現在請梅根·布里特做結束語。

Thank you for joining us today. Please feel free to follow up with me if you have additional questions. Have a good day and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

感謝您今天加入我們。如果您還有其他問題，請隨時與我聯絡。祝您有美好的一天，感謝您的時間和對 ADM 的興趣。

Ladies and gentlemen, today's call is now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們衷心感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。