Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the ADM Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Megan Britt, Vice President, Investor Relations for ADM. Ms. Britt, you may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加 ADM 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。現在我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，ADM 投資者關係副總裁梅根布里特 (Megan Britt)。布里特女士，您可以開始了。

Hello, and welcome to the third quarter earnings call for ADM. Our prepared remarks today will be led by Juan Luciano, Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Monish Patolawala, our EVP, and Chief Financial Officer. We have prepared presentation slides to supplement our remarks on the call today, which are posted on the Investor Relations section of the ADM website and through the link to our webcast.

您好，歡迎參加 ADM 第三季財報電話會議。我們今天準備好的演講將由董事會主席兼執行長胡安·盧西亞諾 (Juan Luciano) 主持；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Monish Patolawala。我們準備了簡報幻燈片來補充我們今天在電話會議上的發言，這些幻燈片發佈在 ADM 網站的投資者關係部分以及我們的網路廣播連結上。

Some of our comments and materials may constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.

我們的一些評論和資料可能構成前瞻性陳述，反映管理層對未來經濟狀況、行業狀況、公司業績和財務業績的當前觀點和估計。這些陳述和材料基於許多假設和因素，這些假設和因素受到許多風險和不確定性的影響。

ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation and the materials. To the extent permitted by law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements due to new information or future events.

ADM 在向 SEC 提交的報告中提供了有關可能導致實際結果與本簡報和資料中的結果存在重大差異的假設和因素的更多資​​訊。在法律允許的範圍內，ADM 不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

In addition, during today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available on our earnings press release and presentation slides, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of the ADM website. Please turn to slide 4.

此外，在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及某些非公認會計原則或調整後的財務指標。這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳可在我們的收益新聞稿和簡報幻燈片中找到，這些內容可以在 ADM 網站的投資者關係部分找到。請翻到幻燈片 4。

I'll now turn the call over to Juan.

我現在將電話轉給胡安。

Thank you, Megan. Hello, and welcome to all who have joined the call. We sincerely appreciate your patience as we work expeditiously to amend the company's fiscal year 2023 Form 10-K and Form 10-Q's for the first and second quarters of 2024. We are pleased to now be able to share more context about our 2024 year-to-date financial results and our outlook. Even though we're holding this call later than usual, we're also in a position to provide qualitative color on how the fourth quarter is progressing.

謝謝你，梅根。您好，歡迎所有加入通話的人。我們衷心感謝您的耐心配合，我們正在迅速修改公司2023 財年的10-K 表格和2024 年第一季和第二季的10-Q 表格。資訊 -迄今為止的財務業績和我們的前景。儘管我們比平常晚舉行這次電話會議，但我們也能夠提供有關第四季度進展情況的定性資訊。

To start, let's recap our financial results for the company. ADM reported third quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.09, and a total segment operating profit of $1 billion. This brings adjusted earnings per share to $3.61, and our total segment operating profit to $3.2 billion year-to-date for 2024. Our trailing fourth quarter adjusted ROIC was 8.8%.

首先，讓我們回顧一下公司的財務表現。 ADM 報告第三季調整後每股收益為 1.09 美元，部門營業利潤總額為 10 億美元。這使得 2024 年年初至今的調整後每股收益達到 3.61 美元，我們的部門總營業利潤達到 32 億美元。

Although we made progress on several important initiatives in 2024, these results are not consistent with the high bar that we have set for our team. While we have seen a decline in our total segment operating profit and a decline in operating cash flow before working capital changes, due to lower net earnings relative to the prior year period, disciplined management of our balance sheet continues to allow us to invest in our business and return cash to shareholders. In total, we have returned $3.1 billion to our shareholders with $744 million in the form of dividends and $2.3 billion in share repurchases year-to-date in 2024.

儘管 2024 年我們在多項重要措施上取得了進展，但這些結果與我們為團隊設定的高標準並不一致。雖然我們看到我們的分部總營業利潤下降，營運資本變動前的營業現金流量下降，但由於淨利潤較上年同期下降，我們對資產負債表的嚴格管理繼續使我們能夠投資於我們的資產負債表。 2024 年迄今，我們總共向股東返還了 31 億美元，其中以股息形式回報了 7.44 億美元，並進行了 23 億美元的股票回購。

Next slide, please. Entering 2024 we laid out key priorities for value creation based on the year we saw ahead of us. And as we moved into the fourth quarter, it's clear that certain expectations have not all played out as anticipated. The global commodity landscape has continued to shift, stronger-than-expected supply has driven commodity prices down further than anticipated. Canola crush margins have been negatively impacted by regulatory uncertainty and higher seed prices.

請下一張投影片。進入 2024 年，我們根據未來一年的情況制定了價值創造的關鍵優先事項。當我們進入第四季度時，很明顯某些預期並未如預期實現。全球大宗商品格局持續變化，供應強於預期導致大宗商品價格跌幅超出預期。雙低油菜籽壓榨利潤受到監管不確定性和種子價格上漲的負面影響。

In addition, China has begun to increase local commodity production and has had a slower pace of demand recovery, negatively impacting the trade of certain commodities and update of Animal Nutrition solutions. We're also seeing the trailing effects of inflation in part of our business. Some new Nutrition projects have been delayed as some customers look for opportunities to manage costs by simplifying their consumer offerings. We have also seen some softness in demand in other end markets such as pet treats and energy drinks, where consumers are prioritizing their discretionary spending.

此外，中國已開始增加本地商品產量，但​​需求復甦速度較慢，對某些商品的貿易和動物營養解決方案的更新產生了負面影響。我們也看到通貨膨脹對我們的部分業務產生了拖累效應。由於一些客戶尋求透過簡化消費性產品來管理成本的機會，一些新的營養項目已被推遲。我們也看到寵物零食和能量飲料等其他終端市場的需求疲軟，消費者優先考慮可自由支配的支出。

The global regulatory environment has led to additional uncertainties. Programs such as EUDR and the US producers tax credit are still not fully in place, which has left various stakeholders in the ag supply chain without the confidence of a clear path forward. Beyond these external factors creating downward pressure, we're also managing through a balance of both positive and challenging results across our own operational environment.

全球監管環境帶來了更多的不確定性。 EUDR 和美國生產商稅收抵免等計劃尚未完全到位，這使得農業供應鏈中的各個利益相關者對明確的前進道路缺乏信心。除了這些造成下行壓力的外部因素之外，我們還在我們自己的營運環境中平衡積極和具有挑戰性的結果。

In Carbohydrate Solutions, we've been able to improve production throughout the network in part due to advancements in automation and digitization at the plant level as well as by finding synergies across our milling network. We've seen similar improvements in our crush facilities in LatAm and EMEA, but this has been offset to date by the fact that opportunities previously identified in some of our US plants have been taking longer than expected to be completed.

在碳水化合物解決方案中，我們能夠提高整個網路的產量，部分原因是工廠層級自動化和數位化的進步，以及整個研磨網路的協同效應。我們在拉丁美洲和歐洲、中東和非洲的壓榨​​設施中也看到了類似的改進，但迄今為止，這一改進已被我們之前在一些美國工廠發現的機會所花費的時間比預期更長的事實所抵消。

However, in October, we began to see improvements in unplanned downtime in our US facilities. Nutrition has continued to manage through the downtime of our Decatur East facility, where our expected ramp-up has been delayed from the end of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025 as safe restoration of operations is a top priority. And while the integration of our most recent flavour acquisitions has driven positive results, we have experienced demand fulfilment issues due to the complexity of other integration efforts.

然而，十月份，我們開始看到美國工廠的非計劃性停機情況有所改善。在我們迪凱特東工廠的停機期間，營養繼續得到管理，由於安全恢復運作是當務之急，我們預計的產能提升已從 2024 年底推遲到 2025 年第一季。雖然我們最近收購的風味產品的整合帶來了積極的成果，但由於其他整合工作的複雜性，我們遇到了需求滿足問題。

We believe that our business is well positioned to grow alongside enduring global trends such as the expansion of functional food and beverage alternatives, the replacement of petroleum-based products across multiple industries and the broader opportunity associated with decarbonization.

我們相信，我們的業務處於有利地位，可以與持久的全球趨勢一起發展，例如功能性食品和飲料替代品的擴張、多個行業石油基產品的替代以及與脫碳相關的更廣泛的機會。

As we look at the near term in 2025, however, we anticipate that we could still be managing through a challenging cycle, and we have already begun taking necessary productivity actions with a clear focus on cost and cash management. This slide highlights several of the areas we have already taken action on in 2024, along with additional actions we are aggressively driving at the end of the year.

然而，當我們展望 2025 年的近期情況時，我們預計我們仍然可以度過一個充滿挑戰的周期，並且我們已經開始採取必要的生產力行動，明確關注成本和現金管理。這張投影片重點介紹了我們在 2024 年已經採取行動的幾個領域，以及我們在年底積極推動的其他行動。

As we manage through the current cycle, we've seen success in delivering expansion across strategic initiatives such as (technical difficulty) and destination marketing, which achieved record volume handled in October, supporting supply and demand needs through increasing capacity.

在我們管理當前週期的過程中，我們成功地實現了（技術難度）和目的地行銷等戰略舉措的擴張，這些舉措在 10 月份實現了創紀錄的處理量，透過增加產能來支持供需需求。

This is example in our Spiritwood facility, which has achieved near full run rates in the month of October and in ramping up the Drive for Execution Excellence program, which has already begun to deliver toward our cost-saving goals. Moving forward, as we expand our focus on procurement and execution excellence, we believe that we can double this program's target cost savings over the next few years. In addition, the automation and digitization efforts that have already achieved millions in cost savings are being scoped and accelerated across the other plants in our footprint.

這是我們的 Spiritwood 工廠的一個例子，該工廠在 10 月幾乎實現了滿載運行，並加強了卓越執行計劃，該計劃已經開始實現我們節省成本的目標。展望未來，隨著我們擴大對採購和卓越執行的關注，我們相信我們可以在未來幾年內將該計劃的成本節約目標提高一倍。此外，自動化和數位化工作已經節省了數百萬美元的成本，正在我們足跡中的其他工廠範圍內進行推廣和加速。

Turning to Nutrition's recovery efforts. To date, we have strengthened our operational leadership driven simplification and optimization opportunities and continue to expand our pipeline and win rates in part of the portfolio such as flavours. These efforts are now being supplemented to increase the pace of recovery. We have placed additional focus on demand generation, supply chain improvement and rightsizing our production to better flex to the needs of a dynamic demand environment.

轉向營養的恢復工作。迄今為止，我們已經加強了營運領導力驅動的簡化和優化機會，並繼續擴大我們的產品線和部分產品組合（例如口味）的贏率。這些努力現在正在補充，以加快恢復速度。我們更加關注需求產生、供應鏈改進和調整生產規模，以更好地滿足動態需求環境的需求。

And finally, from a strategic capital allocation perspective, we have already accelerated our return of cash to shareholders this year in the form of share repurchases and dividends. Going forward, we're being extremely prudent and focusing our attention on cash generation opportunities, while considering specific portfolio optimization efforts to simplify operations, enhance our focus and drive an improvement in ROIC.

最後，從策略資本配置的角度來看，我們今年已經以股票回購和股利的形式加快了向股東的現金回報。展望未來，我們將極為謹慎，將注意力集中在現金產生機會上，同時考慮具體的投資組合優化工作，以簡化營運、增強我們的關注度並推動投資回報率的改善。

Along with all these actions, Monish joining us, CFO, has already brought new perspectives to the team. We are using this experience to help identify and accelerate path for continuous recovery. With this, let me pass to Monish for a more detailed financial review. Monish?

除了所有這些行動之外，莫尼什作為財務長加入我們，已經為團隊帶來了新的視角。我們正在利用這一經驗來幫助確定和加速持續恢復的路徑。接下來，讓我請莫尼什進行更詳細的財務審查。莫尼什？

Thank you, Juan. First, I would like to take a moment to say how excited I am to be joining the ADM team at such an important point in the company's trajectory. While I've only been on the job for a few months, I have enjoyed the opportunity to personally engage with our teams and learn the company. I want to thank all my ADM colleagues for their warm welcome.

謝謝你，胡安。首先，我想花點時間表達一下，在公司發展軌跡如此重要的時刻加入 ADM 團隊，我感到多麼興奮。雖然我入職才幾個月，但我很高興有機會親自與我們的團隊互動並了解公司。我要感謝所有 ADM 同事的熱情歡迎。

Turning to slide 6. On a year-to-date basis, AS&O segment operating profit of $1.8 billion was 42% lower versus the prior year period as ample supplies out of South America have driven lower commodity prices and margins across the segment. Ag Services subsegment operating profit of $461 was 52% lower versus the prior year, driven by lower South American origination margins and volumes, in part due to industry take-or-pay contracts. The stabilization of trade flows has also led to fewer opportunities in our global trade business, leading to lower results.

轉向幻燈片 6。農業服務分部營業利潤為 461 美元，較上年下降 52%，原因是南美原產地利潤率和銷量下降，部分原因是行業照付不議合約。貿易流的穩定也導致我們的全球貿易業務機會減少，導致業績下降。

Crushing subsegment operating profit of $632 million was 30% lower versus the prior year period. Slower farmer selling and lower crush rates in Argentina, coupled with solid demand has supported soy crush margins, leading to a year-to-date executed soy crush margin of approximately $50 per metric ton, which is lower compared to the prior year. While year-to-date executed canola crush margins are lower by approximately $15 per ton compared to the prior year, margins have moderated significantly in the second half of the year so far. As higher seed prices and regulatory uncertainty drove lower margins. There were net negative timing impact of approximately $120 million year-over-year.

壓榨分部營業利潤為 6.32 億美元，比去年同期下降 30%。阿根廷農民銷售放緩和壓榨率下降，加上強勁的需求支撐了大豆壓榨利潤，導致今年迄今執行的大豆壓榨利潤約為每噸 50 美元，低於去年。雖然今年迄今已執行的雙低油菜籽壓榨利潤比去年每噸下降約 15 美元，但今年下半年至今利潤率已大幅下降。由於種子價格上漲和監管不確定性導致利潤率下降。與去年同期相比，淨時間負面影響約為 1.2 億美元。

In the refined products and other subsegment, increased pretreatment capacity at renewable diesel facilities and higher imports of used cooking oil has negatively impacted both refining and biodiesel margins leading to subsegment operating profit that was 58% lower versus the prior year. There were net negative timing impacts of approximately $360 million year-over-year.

在精煉產品和其他細分市場中，再生柴油設施預處理能力的提高和廢食用油進口的增加對煉油和生物柴油的利潤率產生了負面影響，導致該細分市場的營業利潤比上年下降了58%。與去年同期相比，淨時間負面影響約為 3.6 億美元。

As we look forward, we anticipate AS&O fourth quarter results to be lower than the prior year quarter. The seasonal shift to our North American weighted footprint and strong North American crop should be supportive of volumes. But recent elevation margins are below the levels we expected when we put our guidance in place in November.

展望未來，我們預期 AS&O 第四季業績將低於去年同期。我們北美加權足跡的季節性轉變和北美作物的強勁應該會支撐銷售。但最近的海拔幅度低於我們在 11 月制定指導時預期的水平。

In crushing, the ramp-up of our Spiritwood facility is expected to support high single-digit volume improvement. However, we expect lower results due to lower soya and canola crush margins versus the prior year. The addition of new pretreatment capacity has continued to weigh on margins within the RPO business and on the food oil side, margins for free-to-sell opportunities have been under pressure due to increased competition.

在破碎方面，我們的 Spiritwood 工廠的產能提升預計將支持高個位數的產量提高。然而，由於大豆和油菜籽壓榨利潤較上年下降，我們預期業績會下降。新預處理產能的增加持續影響 RPO 業務的利潤率，而在食品油方面，由於競爭加劇，免費銷售機會的利潤率一直面臨壓力。

Based on the information available today, we also anticipate 100% reinsurance proceeds of approximately $50 million in the fourth quarter related to both Decatur West and East. We continue to monitor the impact of uncertainty related to regulation and trade flows on the operating environment as we look forward to the end of the year.

根據今天掌握的信息，我們還預計第四季度與迪凱特西部和東部相關的 100% 再保險收益約為 5000 萬美元。展望年底，我們將繼續監測與監管和貿易流動相關的不確定性對營運環境的影響。

Year-to-date, Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit of $1.1 billion in the year-to-date period was roughly in line with the prior year as lower margins in the EMEA region and ethanol were mostly offset by strong volumes and improved manufacturing costs.

年初至今，碳水化合物解決方案部門營業利潤為 11 億美元，與去年基本持平，因為歐洲、中東和非洲地區和乙醇的利潤率較低，大部分被強勁的銷售和製造成本的改善所抵消。

As we look forward, a strong North American corn supply and robust export demand is expected to be supportive of VCP. However, North American ethanol production continues to outpace demand, driving lower margins. We expect to see solid demand and margins in North American Starches and Sweeteners as we finish the year.

展望未來，強勁的北美玉米供應和強勁的出口需求預計將支撐 VCP。然而，北美乙醇產量持續超過需求，導致利潤率下降。我們預計今年年底北美澱粉和甜味劑的需求和利潤將保持穩定。

Wheat milling margins are expected to moderate from elevated prior year level. Based on information available today, we also anticipate 100% insurance proceeds in the fourth quarter related to both Decatur East and West incident of approximately $35 million. Taken together, we anticipate the Carbohydrate Solutions fourth quarter results to be in line with the prior year period.

預計小麥加工利潤率將較去年的高水準有所放緩。根據今天掌握的信息，我們還預計第四季度與迪凱特東部和西部事件相關的 100% 保險收益約為 3500 萬美元。綜上所述，我們預期碳水化合物解決方案第四季的業績將與去年同期持平。

Year-to-date, revenues from Nutrition were $5.6 billion, up 2% compared to the prior year. On an organic basis, segment revenue was down 3%. Human Nutrition was flat organically as headwinds related to Decatur East and texturants pricing offset growth in flavours and health and wellness. Animal Nutrition revenue declined 5%, driven by unfavourable mix, negative currency impacts in Brazil and lower volumes due to demand fulfilment challenges.

年初至今，營養品業務收入為 56 億美元，比上年成長 2%。從有機角度來看，該部門收入下降了 3%。人類營養有機持平，原因是與迪凱特東部相關的不利因素和紋理定價抵消了風味和健康的成長。動物營養收入下降 5%，原因是不利的組合、巴西的負面貨幣影響以及需求滿足挑戰導致的銷售下降。

Year-to-date, Nutrition subsegment operating profit of $298 million was 32% lower versus the prior year. Human Nutrition results of $265 million were 40% lower compared to the prior year period, primarily driven by unplanned downtime at Decatur East. Animal Nutrition results of $33 million was slightly higher compared to the prior year due to an improvement in margins.

年初至今，營養品分部營業利潤為 2.98 億美元，較上年下降 32%。人類營養表現為 2.65 億美元，比上年同期下降 40%，這主要是由於迪凱特東計劃外停機造成的。由於利潤率的提高，動物營養業務的表現為 3,300 萬美元，略高於前一年。

As we finish the year, we expect continued weak consumer demand, lower texturants prices and ongoing operational challenges to be a headwind. And as Juan previously mentioned, we now anticipate the startup of our Decatur East facility to be delayed until the first quarter of 2025. We expect the impact of prolonged downtime adoratories to be partially offset by 100% reinsurance proceeds in the fourth quarter of approximately $50 million, based on the information available today.

到今年結束時，我們預計消費者需求持續疲軟、紋理劑價格下降以及持續的營運挑戰將成為不利因素。正如胡安之前提到的，我們現在預計迪凱特東設施的啟動將推遲到 2025 年第一季。今天掌握的資訊。

We expect Animal Nutrition results in the fourth quarter to be better than the prior year with tailwinds from our turnaround efforts and as we continue to work through operational challenges in pet solutions. Taken together, we expect Nutrition results for the fourth quarter likely lower than the third quarter of 2024, but to be higher than the prior year, which had negative impact of approximately $64 million in nonrecurring items.

我們預計第四季度動物營養表現將好於去年，這得益於我們扭虧為盈的努力以及我們繼續解決寵物解決方案的營運挑戰。總而言之，我們預計第四季度的營養結果可能低於 2024 年第三季度，但高於上年，這對非經常性項目產生了約 6,400 萬美元的負面影響。

Please turn to slide 7. Year-to-date in 2024, the company has generated cash flow from operations before working capital of approximately $2.3 billion, down relative to the same period last year due to lower segment operating profit. Despite the decline, solid cash generation has supported our ability to invest in our business and return excess cash to shareholders. Year-to-date, the company has returned $3.1 billion in cash in the form of dividends and share repurchases, allocated $1.1 billion to capital expenditures and nearly $1 billion to M&A announced in 2023 and completed in January 2024.

請參閱投影片 7。儘管有所下降，但穩定的現金產生支持了我們投資業務並將多餘現金回饋給股東的能力。今年迄今，該公司已以股息和股票回購的形式返還 31 億美元現金，分配 11 億美元用於資本支出，並分配近 10 億美元用於 2023 年宣布並於 2024 年 1 月完成的併購。

Our capital structure continues to provide the financial flexibility to invest in our business and return capital to shareholders. We continue to see opportunities to drive enhanced cash generation through operating improvements, both in our facilities and through better management of working capital. We believe investing in organic opportunities gives us the best return. While we will always look at opportunistic M&A as a way to enhance returns, it is essential that we prioritize maximizing returns from the assets that we have already acquired and also ensuring that we are the best owners of all our assets.

我們的資本結構繼續提供財務靈活性，以投資我們的業務並向股東返還資本。我們繼續看到透過改善我們的設施和更好地管理營運資本來推動現金產生的機會。我們相信投資有機機會會為我們帶來最好的回報。雖然我們始終將機會主義併購視為提高回報的一種方式，但我們必須優先考慮最大化已收購資產的回報，並確保我們是所有資產的最佳所有者。

Now let's transition to a discussion of guidance for 2024 on slide 8. In early November, we announced that we lowered our full year 2024 adjusted earnings per share guidance to the range of $4.50 per share to $5 per share. The lowering of our guide takes into account our year-to-date results and headwinds from slow market demand and internal operational challenges.

現在讓我們轉向討論幻燈片 8 上的 2024 年指引。我們下調指南是考慮到了我們今年迄今的業績以及市場需求放緩和內部營運挑戰的不利因素。

Additionally, we now anticipate our corporate cost to be in within the range of $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion primarily due to lower incentive compensation and our corporate net interest expense to be in the range of $475 million to $525 million. We now expect capital expenditures to be approximately $1.5 billion. We are also increasing our effective tax rate guidance to the range of 20% to 22% due to the non-deductible impairment of Wilmar taken in the third quarter. Our expectations for our leverage ratio and D&A are unchanged.

此外，我們現在預計我們的公司成本將在 17 億美元至 18 億美元之間，這主要是由於激勵薪酬較低，而我們的公司淨利息支出將在 4.75 億美元至 5.25 億美元之間。我們現在預計資本支出約為 15 億美元。由於第三季對豐益國際進行了不可抵扣減值，我們也將有效稅率指引提高至 20% 至 22%。我們對槓桿率和 D&A 的預期保持不變。

Let's turn to slide 9 to close the call with a reflection on the key priorities that we are driving with our team to deliver improvement and enhance returns. First, my top priority is ensuring integrity and accuracy in our internal controls and financial reporting. I echo Juan's earlier statement and add my particular thanks for the extraordinary efforts of our team to amend and file the restated financials for fiscal year 2023 Form 10-K and Form 10-Qs for the first and second quarters of 2024.

讓我們轉向幻燈片 9 來結束這次電話會議，反思我們正在與我們的團隊一起推動的關鍵優先事項，以實現改進和提高回報。首先，我的首要任務是確保我們的內部控制和財務報告的完整性和準確性。我同意胡安先前的聲明，並特別感謝我們團隊為修改和提交 2023 財年重述財務報表 10-K 表格和 2024 年第一季度和第二季度的 10-Q 表格所做的巨大努力。

We are continuing to focus on implementing enhancements to our internal controls to remediate the previously identified material weakness and are taking action to enhance the integrity and accuracy within internal controls and financial reporting related to intersegment sales.

我們將繼續致力於加強內部控制，以糾正先前發現的重大缺陷，並採取行動提高與部門間銷售相關的內部控制和財務報告的完整性和準確性。

Among other things, the design and documentation of the execution of pricing and measurement and reporting controls for segment disclosure purposes, and projected financial information used in impairment analysis have been enhanced and the testing of these controls will continue throughout the balance of the year. Further, training for relevant personnel on the measurement of intersegment sales and application of relevant accounting guidance to intersegment sales has been provided and remains ongoing.

除此之外，出於分部披露目的而執行定價、計量和報告控制的設計和記錄，以及減值分析中使用的預計財務信息都得到了加強，這些控制的測試將在今年餘下時間繼續進行。此外，已為相關人員提供了關於分部間銷售計量以及將相關會計指南應用於分部間銷售的培訓，並且該培訓仍在進行中。

In the broader category of improving focus and execution, the team will remain adaptable and focus on items within our control. On the cost side, we are optimizing our cost structure and enhancing operational resilience initiatives. In this way, we have the opportunity to create a more cohesive digital strategy. Today, we have invested in numerous efforts to improve our systems and enable a more digital footing for our business. However, we have the opportunity to connect these efforts to accelerate outcomes around how we serve our customers, upgrade our assets, and run the enterprise, while also delivering structural cost improvement.

在提高專注力和執行力的更廣泛類別中，團隊將保持適應性並專注於我們控制範圍內的專案。在成本方面，我們正在優化成本結構並增強營運彈性措施。透過這種方式，我們有機會制定更具凝聚力的數位策略。如今，我們投入了大量精力來改進我們的系統並為我們的業務提供更數位化的基礎。然而，我們有機會將這些努力結合起來，以加速我們服務客戶、升級資產和營運企業的成果，同時實現結構性成本改善。

Similarly, we have room in our portfolio and broader asset network to optimize through targeted divestitures or rationalization, and we are evaluating numerous actions that we could take to improve our footprint performance and generate cash. We will also maintain a sharp focus on working capital management to further strengthen our cash position.

同樣，我們的投資組合和更廣泛的資產網絡中有空間可以透過有針對性的剝離或合理化來優化，並且我們正在評估可以採取的許多行動，以提高我們的足跡績效並產生現金。我們也將繼續高度關注營運資金管理，以進一步加強我們的現金狀況。

Lastly, we'll remain disciplined in capital allocation, seeking opportunities to drive ROIC and enhance returns. I see maintaining our capital discipline as essential to value creation. We will work to ensure that we maintain a healthy balance sheet that continues to create strong cash flow and that we rigor investment opportunities appropriately by applying a stage-gated model to ensure that we're achieving key milestones and meeting our return objectives to continue to invest.

最後，我們將在資本配置方面保持嚴格，尋求推動投資報酬率和提高回報的機會。我認為維持我們的資本紀律對於創造價值至關重要。我們將努力確保我們保持健康的資產負債表，繼續創造強勁的現金流，並透過應用階段控制模型適當地嚴格投資機會，以確保我們實現關鍵里程碑並實現我們的回報目標，以繼續投資。

In closing, I want to take a moment to thank our ADM colleagues for their hard work and dedication this quarter. I am optimistic that today we can successfully tackle the challenges and seize the opportunities as we continue to execute our strategy and focus on delivering value for our shareholders.

最後，我想花點時間感謝我們的 ADM 同事本季的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。我樂觀地認為，今天我們能夠成功應對挑戰並抓住機遇，繼續執行我們的策略並專注於為股東創造價值。

With that, we look forward to taking your questions. Operator, please open the line for our first question.

因此，我們期待回答您的問題。接線員，請接通我們的第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Strelzik, BMO.

（操作員說明）Andrew Strelzik，BMO。

I appreciate all the color you gave on the outlook and the strategy. I was hoping that you could help reconcile the decline in US crush margins over the last several weeks. You have now a US crush margin curve that's much lower in the nearby than in the spring, which is abnormal, soybean meal delivery certificates issued last week by some of the commercials, which I also believe is abnormal.

我很欣賞您對前景和策略的所有闡述。我希望您能幫助解決過去幾週美國壓榨利潤下降的問題。現在美國的壓榨保證金曲線在近期比春季低很多，這是不正常的，上週一些廣告發布的豆粕交割證書，我也認為是不正常的。

So I guess the question is, what does all of this tell us about where crush margins are headed? And how much visibility do you have on crush in the next year compared to what you would typically have for this time of the year?

所以我想問題是，這一切告訴我們壓榨利潤的走向是什麼？與每年這個時候相比，您明年的暗戀可見度有多少？

Yes. Thank you, Andrew. As you said, [about] crush rallied steadily from the lows in Q3 but has come under pressure in November. It's basically a combination of things. First of all, demand for the products have been very good. Demand for [ mill ] is good. Demand for oil around the world is good. But you see during November, we have the Argentine farmer started to sell again. So we've seen higher crush rates in Argentina.

是的。謝謝你，安德魯。正如您所說，壓榨從第三季度的低點穩步反彈，但在 11 月面臨壓力。它基本上是多種事物的組合。首先，產品的需求一直很好。對[磨坊]的需求良好。全球石油需求良好。但你看，十一月期間，阿根廷農民再次開始銷售。所以我們看到阿根廷的壓榨率更高。

There are high crush rates in Brazil and NOPA here in North America, all our plants have been running well. So we have high crush in October. When you combine that with the regulatory uncertainty now we have in the oil side, that has created the problems that we have.

巴西和北美 NOPA 的破碎率很高，我們所有的工廠都運作良好。所以我們十月的暗戀量很高。當你將其與我們現在在石油方面面臨的監管不確定性結合起來時，這就造成了我們所面臨的問題。

The US is exporting oil. The US is exporting mill, but there is more pressure in the system with more crush being put and less regulatory clarity. So that's why overall message, Andrew, is as we look forward here, we think that given the soft markets and the regulatory uncertainty, our focus in ADM is on the things that we can control on the double down on productivity, looking at all our efforts in trying to control cost and cash and certainly portfolio management. So that's kind of our priority for the year.

美國正在出口石油。美國正在出口工廠，但由於壓榨量增加且監管透明度較低，系統面臨更大壓力。因此，安德魯，總體訊息是，正如我們所期望的那樣，我們認為，考慮到疲軟的市場和監管的不確定性，我們對ADM 的關注點是我們可以控制生產力雙倍下降的事情，考慮到我們所有的努力控製成本和現金，當然還有投資組合管理。所以這是我們今年的首要任務。

The markets remain robust. Soybean meal is the most competitive feed out there. So demand is strong. And oil is needed for the biofuels market, and oil is needed for human consumption. So I think that when we clear the regulatory environment or regulatory uncertainty, if you will, I think you're going to see things normalizing a bit.

市場依然強勁。豆粕是目前最具競爭力的飼料。所以需求很強。生物燃料市場需要石油，人類消費也需要石油。因此，我認為，當我們清除監管環境或監管不確定性時，如果你願意的話，我認為你會看到事情稍微正常化。

Okay. And so if I could just quickly follow up. Given all of the internal actions that you guys are focused on as you kind of navigate the cycle. And if I were to kind of exclude some of the insurance dynamics from this year and maybe for next year as well, do you think that this is kind of an earnings base from which you would expect those actions to drive earnings growth in 2025?

好的。如果我能快速跟進的話。考慮到你們在循環中所關注的所有內部行動。如果我從今年甚至明年排除一些保險動態，您是否認為這是您期望這些行動能夠推動 2025 年收益成長的收益基礎？

Or do you think about it as still kind of navigating through kind of a muddled environment as we get through the regulatory dynamics? How do you think about kind of this year and the actions that you're taking and the ability to grow in '25?

或者您認為，當我們經歷監管動態時，它仍然是在一個混亂的環境中航行？您如何看待今年的情況以及您正在採取的行動以及 25 年的成長能力？

Yes. I think it's important never to lose an opportunity to get yourself extra fit. So we are taking this decline in margins as an opportunity to review everything from ADM and accelerate all the decisions that were already ongoing. So I would -- it's too early in the year. There are too many unknowns, Andrew, to -- especially on the regulatory front to make a forecast for the year. But we know they're focusing on the things we can control, continue to drive cash flows. That's an important thing for our shareholders, and that will improve returns.

是的。我認為重要的是永遠不要失去讓自己變得更健康的機會。因此，我們以利潤率下降為契機，審查 ADM 的所有內容，並加快所有已經在進行的決策。所以我會——今年還為時過早。安德魯，有太多的未知因素，尤其是在監管方面，無法對今年做出預測。但我們知道他們專注於我們可以控制的事情，並繼續推動現金流。這對我們的股東來說很重要，這將提高回報。

Andrew, I echo what Juan just said, it's back to the basics of cash, cost, and capital. And that's what we are focused on right now. A lot of opportunities head down, get 2024 closed, and we'll come back when were ready to discuss 2025. But we know the environment is going to be soft and that's why the teams are controlling what they control.

安德魯，我同意胡安剛才所說的，這又回到了現金、成本和資本的基礎。這就是我們現在關注的重點。很多機會都在等待，2024 年結束，我們會在準備討論 2025 年時回來。

Tom Palmer, Citi.

湯姆·帕爾默，花旗銀行。

I just wanted to inquire on the Nutrition side of the business. We've seen some changes in terms of the Animal Nutrition business, I think from a cost saving standpoint, that's driven some improved profitability. What about on the Human Nutrition side? Is there -- just given some of the end markets, maybe haven't progressed the way you once anticipated thought to kind of resizing that business? And maybe how much of an opportunity might that be as we think about the coming year?

我只是想詢問一下營養方面的業務。我們看到動物營養業務方面發生了一些變化，我認為從節省成本的角度來看，這推動了獲利能力的提高。人類營養方面又如何呢？考慮到一些終端市場，是否有可能沒有像您曾經預期的那樣取得業務規模調整的進展？當我們思考來年時，也許這會是多大的機會？

Yes. Thank you, Tom, for the question. Listen, I think I will take it by pieces. If you take Human Nutrition, you have to separate. We have a big issue with the plant that is down. That plant is a significant cost. It was down for a full year. Now it's going to be down for the first quarter. So that's an issue that is a little bit of extraordinary that we are fixing and we thank all the engineers and everybody working expeditiously to bring it back safe.

是的。謝謝湯姆提出這個問題。聽著，我想我會把它分成碎片。如果您服用人類營養，則必須分開。我們遇到了一個大問題，那就是工廠已經停產了。該工廠的成本很高。整整一年都處於下滑狀態。現在第一季將會下降。因此，我們正在解決這個問題，這個問題有點不尋常，我們感謝所有工程師和每個迅速努力將其安全恢復的人。

On the rest of the business, is the Flavors business and the Health & Wellness business, we continue to see opportunities. We've seen in the in the positive side, if you will, we've seen growth of flavours -- revenue flavours in Europe of about 7% like-for-like, so organic growth year-to-date. We have seen 5% in North America.

在其餘業務，即調味品業務和健康與保健業務中，我們繼續看到機會。我們看到了積極的一面，如果你願意的話，我們看到了口味的增長——歐洲口味的收入同比增長約 7%，所以今年迄今為止是有機增長的。我們在北美看到了 5%。

These are not the growth rate that we would expected when we started the year because there has been some categories like energy drinks, where although still growing, is growing at a lower rate than we expected at the beginning of the year and our customers have expected at the beginning of the year. Some launches have been postponed but still it's a robust category. And we still see growth. But as you said, we are adjusting a little bit our supply chain to make sure we match the new reality.

這些不是我們年初時預期的成長率，因為有些類別（例如能量飲料）雖然仍在成長，但成長速度低於我們年初的預期和客戶的預期今年年初。一些產品的發布已被推遲，但它仍然是一個強勁的類別。我們仍然看到成長。但正如你所說，我們正在對我們的供應鏈進行一些調整，以確保我們符合新的現實。

When you look at the other piece of Human Nutrition, which is Health & Wellness, the probiotics part, which is the part there that is the future, it is the growth part has grown so far 14% year-over-year on a revenue side and even higher than that in operating profit side.

當你看看人類營養的另一個部分，即健康與保健，益生菌部分，這是未來的部分，它是增長部分，迄今為止收入同比增長了 14%方面甚至高於營業利潤方面。

So I think that there are good signs, but we continue to flex this. This is a year in which, as you understand, Nutrition is not where we want them to be. And we are working hard to fix it. But there are on the customer side, there are positive signs that makes us believe that when we put some of these supply issues behind, we're going to see the results coming to the P&L in a bigger way.

所以我認為有好的跡象，但我們會繼續調整這一點。如您所知，今年營養狀況並未達到我們想要的水平。我們正在努力解決這個問題。但在客戶方面，有一些積極的跡象讓我們相信，當我們將其中一些供應問題拋之腦後時，我們將看到損益表上的結果以更大的方式出現。

Okay. And just on the capital allocation. It sounds like there was some mention in the prepared remarks that maybe some focus on discipline. But there was also some commentary maybe on the crush side about some unexpected downtime. Is there may be an elevated maintenance CapEx cycle needed in the crush operation to kind of get it to the operational levels that you desire? And if so, might we expect maybe less of a step down in CapEx next year, just given that or maybe I'm overstating it?

好的。就資本配置而言。聽起來準備好的發言中提到了一些可能關注紀律的內容。但也有一些評論可能是在壓榨方面，關於一些意外的停機時間。壓榨作業中是否需要提高維護資本支出週期才能使其達到您想要的營運水準？如果是這樣，我們可以預期明年資本支出的下降幅度可能會較小，或者我可能誇大了這一點？

No. Listen, for next year will be solid CapEx. If you will, we have many plants. We have grown the company, and we need to make sure those plants stay in good shape. But also, there are opportunities for automation and digitization that we are adding to that.

不，聽著，明年的資本支出將是穩定的。如果你願意的話，我們有很多植物。我們已經發展了公司，我們需要確保這些工廠保持良好狀態。而且，我們還增加了自動化和數位化的機會。

If you look at the oil seeds plants, Europe and Latin America have been operating very, very well. We have a handful of plants in North America that have given us problems over the summer. And I'm happy to report that they are doing better in October. They are doing better in November. But we had some issues that took a little bit longer to fix than we thought, and we put the resources to do so.

如果你看看油籽工廠，你會發現歐洲和拉丁美洲的運作非常非常好。我們在北美有一些工廠在夏天給我們帶來了問題。我很高興地向大家報告，他們在 10 月的表現有所改善。他們在 11 月表現得更好。但我們遇到了一些問題，解決的時間比我們想像的要長一些，我們投入了資源來解決這個問題。

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

本‧瑟雷爾，巴克萊銀行。

So just wanted to like kind of get a little bit maybe your sensitivities around the implied guidance for the fourth quarter and taking a little bit of an advantage that we're early in December and already two months have gone past, Clearly, if we look at implied low end versus high end, it's a very wide spread.

因此，我只是想了解一下您對第四季度隱含指導的敏感性，並利用我們在 12 月初並且已經過去兩個月的優勢，顯然，如果我們看一下在隱含的低端與高端，這是一個非常廣泛的差異。

So maybe help us understand and frame a little bit what are the risks getting closer to the lower end, which would be implied a little less than a dollar, versus the higher piece closer to [140], just to kind of understand where we're shaking out and where you think things are going out considering the two months are in?

因此，也許可以幫助我們理解和框架一下接近低端的風險是什麼，這意味著略低於一美元，而接近[140]的較高部分，只是為了了解我們在哪裡考慮到這兩個月的時間，你認為事情會發展到什麼程度？

Yes. Thank you, Ben. So let me give you the puts and takes for the quarter and you can build it from there. I think in -- if you think about the grain business, Ag Services, of course, this is the quarter in which the volumes come to North America for exports. And we see good volumes. China is buying for Q4 beans, Europe is buying corn for Q1.

是的。謝謝你，本。因此，讓我為您提供本季度的看跌期權和跌跌期權，您可以從那裡構建它。我認為，如果你考慮糧食業務、農業服務，當然，這個季度的貨物量會運往北美進行出口。我們看到了良好的銷售。中國正在購買第四季的大豆，歐洲正在購買第一季的玉米。

But we have -- although we have good volumes, we have not seen the margin expansion that maybe we have forecasted a couple of quarters or a couple of months ago. River Logistics are good for December. We will have to monitor the weather for Q1, but so far, so good. And (technical difficulty) in the market should help our interior assets.

但我們——儘管我們有很好的銷量，但我們還沒有看到我們在幾個季度或幾個月前預測的利潤率擴張。 12 月份內河物流狀況良好。我們將不得不監測第一季的天氣，但到目前為止，一切都很好。而市場上的（技術難度）應該有助於我們的內部資產。

On a global trade perspective, volumes are strong and lower commodity prices are supporting feeding animals globally. So destination marketing margins are holding. On the crush side, I described before, the decline in crush margins. A lot of uncertainty about biofuels policy, of course. This margin compression could create timing depending on where prices are at the end of the year, we could see positive timing. So we will not be able to call that until we see the end of December.

從全球貿易角度來看，交易量強勁，大宗商品價格下降支撐全球動物飼養。因此，目的地行銷利潤率保持不變。在壓榨方面，我之前描述過壓榨利潤率的下降。當然，生物燃料政策存在著許多不確定性。這種利潤壓縮可能會根據年底的價格情況創造時機，我們可以看到積極的時機。因此，直到 12 月底我們才能確定這一點。

We have been selling our biodiesel book. But of course, it goes all to December. Unfortunately, with the lack of clarity over next year, you could think that if we continue to crush at these levels, maybe oil inventories will climb and something we'll have to give for next -- for the first quarter. At this point, there is not a lot of margin for independent non-integrated plants to run in the first quarter. So we may see a spike of [RINs] later in the quarter, and we might have to maybe the industry slowdown crush in the first quarter.

我們一直在銷售我們的生物柴油書。但當然，這一切都要等到十二月。不幸的是，由於明年缺乏明確性，你可能會認為，如果我們繼續在這些水平上壓榨，石油庫存可能會上升，而我們將不得不為明年第一季做出一些貢獻。目前來看，獨立非綜合工廠第一季的營運利潤並不多。因此，我們可能會在本季度晚些時候看到 [RIN] 激增，並且我們可能不得不在第一季看到行業放緩的情況。

On a Carb Solutions Perspective, it's kind of steady, if you will. Margins are good. Volumes are good. Manufactured in this operating well. So we are cranking on all the cost savings. We have implemented some of the automation projects that's given us benefit to that. So I would say we should see a little bit -- ethanol margins are always the variable here. They are slightly on the breakeven side. So hopefully, we finish the year strong there.

從碳水化合物解決方案的角度來看，如果你願意的話，它是穩定的。利潤率很好。銷量很好。在此運作良好中製造。因此，我們正在努力節省所有成本。我們已經實施了一些自動化項目，這使我們受益匪淺。所以我想說，我們應該看到一點——乙醇利潤率始終是這裡的變數。他們稍微處於損益平衡的一面。所以希望我們能夠以強勁的表現結束這一年。

And then on the Nutrition side, we certainly -- as Monish was saying in the outlook, we we're seeing improvements in Animal Nutrition. We've seen a balance of some revenue growth, but also some one-offs that we needed to address in the Human side. So I would say, better than last year, slightly lower than maybe the previous quarter. And we putting all our efforts in finishing that plan, so we can have a 2025 cleaner of all those extra costs.

然後在營養方面，正如莫尼什在展望中所說，我們當然看到動物營養的改善。我們看到了一些收入成長的平衡，但也看到了一些我們需要在人性方面解決的一次性問題。所以我想說，比去年好，比上一季略低。我們竭盡全力完成該計劃，這樣我們就可以在 2025 年消除所有這些額外成本。

Ben, can I just add a couple more. The insurance proceeds that is a partial settlement right now. If you add the three segments I gave you, in the fourth quarter, there's an assumption that we will get 100% reinsurance proceeds of $135 million. So that's the other variable. And then back on Nutrition, what Juan said just for disclosure, currently, based on where the team is seeing, we think with M&A, it's low single digits growth in the fourth quarter. And on an organic basis, it's low single digits negative growth. And so that's the other piece I just wanted to add to what Juan said.

本，我可以再補充一些嗎？保險收益目前是部分結算。如果你把我給你的三個部分加起來，假設我們將在第四季獲得 100% 的再保險收益，即 1.35 億美元。這就是另一個變數。然後回到營養方面，胡安所說的只是為了揭露，目前，根據團隊所看到的情況，我們認為在併購方面，第四季的成長率較低。從有機的角度來看，這是較低的個位數負成長。這就是我想補充胡安所說的另一件事。

And to clarify, those insurance just similar in the third quarter that will basically then be deducted in other, correct?

澄清一下，那些在第三季類似的保險基本上會在其他季度扣除，對嗎？

No, these are all 100% reinsurance proceeds Ben. So they will -- so our captive insurance has reinsurance cover. And so we expect to get $135 million as a partial settlement for the Decatur East. And this will continue in to '25 and '26. Yes, it's different than 3Q, where the [captive] was paying for it. Now we are expecting reinsurance proceeds.

不，這些都是 Ben 的 100% 再保險收益。所以他們會的——所以我們的自保保險有再保險。因此，我們預計將獲得 1.35 億美元作為迪凱特東區的部分和解金。這將持續到'25和'26。是的，這與 3Q 不同，在 3Q 中，[俘虜] 正在為此付費。現在我們期待再保險收益。

Heather Jones, Heather Jones Research.

希瑟瓊斯，希瑟瓊斯研究。

So you guys talked -- you all have talked a lot about the challenging cycle we're in and as far as looking to '25. But I wanted to get a sense of, I mean, what are some things that could be givebacks in '25? So I was just wondering if you could quantify how much take-or-pay hit you guys in '24? And then the cost impact of all the unplanned downtimes that presumably as you've got these plants running better, you should get back -- separate from the crush curve. So I was just wondering if you could first quantify those couple of things for me.

你們談論了很多關於我們所處的充滿挑戰的周期以及對 25 年的展望。但我想了解一下，我的意思是，哪些東西可以在 25 年得到回饋？所以我只是想知道你們是否可以量化 24 年「照付不議」對你們的影響有多大？然後，所有計劃外停機的成本影響可能會隨著這些工廠運作得更好而恢復——與擠壓曲線分開。所以我只是想知道你是否可以先為我量化這兩件事。

Yes. I would say I'm not sure I have all of them top of my head for the full year, Heather. But let me say the following. I agree with you. I think on the take-or-pay, first of all, we'll learn our lessons. So we're going to add differently, I think, ourselves and maybe even the whole industry. I think also the weather in Brazil is very good. So we expect to have probably 170 million tons type of crop next year that will avoid these issues. I will say all these resets in 2025. So we still have very little exposure of our take-or-pay. But I don't have top of my head what was the whole thing.

是的。我想說的是，我不確定全年是否都在考慮這些問題，希瑟。但讓我說以下幾點。我同意你的看法。我認為，在照付不議的問題上，首先我們會學到教訓。因此，我認為，我們將添加不同的內容，包括我們自己，甚至整個行業。我認為巴西的天氣也很好。因此，我們預計明年的農作物產量可能會達到 1.7 億噸，從而避免這些問題。我想說的是，所有這些都會在 2025 年重置 因此，我們的照付不議的風險敞口仍然很小。但我不知道整件事情到底是什麼。

And then on the manufacturing side, we have issues mostly in the Q3, I would say. Some of the plans when we look at our capacity when we were down, sometimes it was things like Paraguay because we didn't have margins, so we shut it down ourselves. And then sometimes it was Ukraine or other plants like that. We have a plant in (technical difficulty) in Iowa that we were a little bit waiting for a permit, so we couldn't bring it back. So there are improvements there. I don't know if Monish you have some numbers in your head, I will hesitate to quantify them myself, but.

我想說，在製造方面，我們主要在第三季遇到問題。當我們在低迷的時候審視我們的產能時，我們制定了一些計劃，有時像巴拉圭這樣的計劃，因為我們沒有利潤，所以我們自己關閉了它。有時是烏克蘭或其他類似的工廠。我們在愛荷華州有一家工廠（技術困難），我們正在等待許可證，所以我們無法將其帶回來。所以那裡有改進。我不知道莫尼什你腦子裡是否有一些數字，我會猶豫是否要自己量化它們，但是。

Yes. So I would -- just on take-or-pay, Heather, it's year-to-date, it's approximately $40 million of impact. We'll have to see what 2025 brings and what the volume and what the revised take-or-pay contracts look like.

是的。所以我想——就照付不議而言，希瑟，今年迄今為止，影響約為 4000 萬美元。我們必須看看 2025 年會帶來什麼、數量以及修訂後的照付不議合約是什麼樣子。

And then on the downtime, again, it comes down to -- the teams are focused on trying to get that up. The cost has gone up per cost per ton. But I would not quantify that right now. I would just wait through as we get to. There should be upside as these plants start running, but I would not quantify it because it's not like a systemic down of X over months. It's puts and takes of downtime.

然後，關於停工時間，再次歸結為——團隊專注於努力恢復正常狀態。每噸成本都上漲了。但我現在不會量化這一點。當我們到達時我會等待。當這些工廠開始運作時，應該會有上升空間，但我不會量化它，因為它不像 X 幾個月內的系統性下降。這是停機時間的投入和消耗。

One thing Heather that you need to consider -- sorry, in the manufacturing is we implemented our automation projects in the Carb Solutions business first, because we run a pilot and it was good returns, so we extended that. Now we have finished our first pilot in the oilseeds plant in one plant in Brazil and the results are very encouraging. Based on those results, we may do the same thing than now that we did in automation, in Carb Solutions into the oilseeds plant.

你需要考慮的一件事希瑟 - 抱歉，在製造業中，我們首先在碳水化合物解決方案業務中實施了自動化項目，因為我們進行了試點並且獲得了良好的回報，因此我們擴展了該項目。現在，我們已經在巴西的一家工廠完成了油籽工廠的首次試點，結果非常令人鼓舞。根據這些結果，我們可能會做與現在在自動化、碳水化合物解決方案到油籽工廠中所做的相同的事情。

That has given us improvements in not only yields but also energy savings [exane] and losses and things like that. So there is an upside there as well as we go into -- we're going to implement all of these in -- I think we have 15 projects going into 2025 for this. So I think that you should see that as a positive for us.

這不僅使我們提高了產量，還提高了能源節約和損失等。因此，我們將在 2025 年實施所有這些項目，這也是有好處的。所以我認為你應該認為這對我們來說是積極的。

And Heather, I would add to one piece on this is everyone looks at downtime and says, cycle up or cycle down. What the team is actually doing is a very good, lean-based approach. So they're actually going into deep root cause. Looking at what equipment caused the failure, why did it cause the failure? Is there a way to automate? Is there a way to digitize?

希瑟，我想補充一點，每個人都會關注停機時間並說，循環向上或循環向下。團隊實際上正在做的是一種非常好的、基於精實的方法。所以他們實際上正在深入研究根本原因。看看是什麼設備導致了故障，為什麼會導致故障呢？有沒有辦法自動化？有沒有辦法數位化？

So in the long run, I put this under the pillar of operational excellence. Our factory should continue to run better in the longer term, and we'll put in the right appropriate of CapEx needed to make sure that we can over the long term, have sustained operating leverage from our factories.

因此，從長遠來看，我將其置於卓越營運的支柱之下。從長遠來看，我們的工廠應該繼續更好地運營，我們將投入適當的資本支出，以確保我們能夠長期維持工廠的營運槓桿。

Okay. My follow-up is just, do you have an estimate of how much reinsurance proceeds will be at '25 and '26? I think you said it would continue into '26. So just give us a sense of what those just rough numbers, what those numbers will look like?

好的。我的後續問題是，您對 25 年和 26 年的再保險收益有多少估計？我想你說過這會持續到26年。那麼請讓我們來了解一下這些粗略的數字，這些數字會是什麼樣子呢？

Yes. So I'll start with just the overall possible loss that is there. And again, this is very preliminary. The teams are still working it through. But we believe Decatur West should be approximately the $100 million of loss and Decatur East should be in the $300 million to $400 million of loss.

是的。因此，我將從可能的整體損失開始。再說一遍，這只是初步的。團隊仍在努力解決這個問題。但我們認為迪凱特西區的損失應約為 1 億美元，迪凱特東區的損失應為 3 億至 4 億美元。

We've got $95 million in Q3. We expect to get $135 million, give or take in Q4. We expect that in 2025, we should be somewhere in that $50 million to $100 million range and then the rest will work over the next. Now all of this is based on information we have right now. All of this is based on still working through with the actuaries, with the insurance companies, et cetera. And our goal is to continue working it, and we'll keep you posted as we get to know more. But this is truly based on what we know as of right now.

第三季我們的營收為 9500 萬美元。我們預計第四季將獲得 1.35 億美元的收入。我們預計到 2025 年，我們的資金規模應該在 5,000 萬至 1 億美元之間，然後剩下的將在接下來的時間裡發揮作用。現在所有這些都是基於我們現有的資訊。所有這一切都是基於與精算師、保險公司等的合作。我們的目標是繼續努力，當我們了解更多資訊時，我們會及時通知您。但這確實是基於我們目前所知的情況。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

馬納夫古普塔，瑞銀集團。

My question specifically is to you, Monish. You have been in the seat for some time. But looking at the next 12 to 24 months, Monish, what are your key priorities? What are you going to be most focused on for the next couple of years to make ADM a stronger company?

我的問題是專門問你的，莫尼什。您已經坐在座位上有一段時間了。但展望未來 12 到 24 個月，Monish，您的首要任務是什麼？為了使 ADM 成為更強大的公司，您未來幾年最關注的是什麼？

Yes. First, Manav, I'll just say, been here slightly over 90 days, and it's been a blast to be -- it's a fantastic team. Got a chance to go see some farms. I've got a chance to go see our operations. I've got a chance to go meet the teams in the field, and it's a very exciting time to be here.

是的。首先，馬納夫，我只想說，他來到這裡已經 90 天多一點了，這真是太棒了——這是一支出色的團隊。有機會去看看一些農場。我有機會去看看我們的運作。我有機會去見見現場的團隊，這是一個非常令人興奮的時刻。

I would tell you on my priorities as I think about it, as I said in my prepared remarks, my first priority is the integrity of our financial statements and remediating the material weakness. The team has already done a lot of work, but there's a lot more we can do in improving our processes, our internal controls, and our systems. And that's what I'm focused in with the IT team and the finance teams to make sure that we have systems that can support all the reporting and all the revised pricing, et cetera, for intersegment sales. So that's one item.

我會告訴你們我的優先事項，正如我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我的首要任務是我們財務報表的完整性並彌補重大缺陷。團隊已經做了很多工作，但在改善流程、內部控制和系統方面我們還有很多工作可以做。這就是我與 IT 團隊和財務團隊一起關注的重點，以確保我們擁有能夠支援所有報告和所有修訂後的定價等部門間銷售的系統。這是一項。

Then I come to the second piece, which is driving cash cost and capital. As Juan mentioned and I have said, there is a lot of opportunity here to control what we control. And therefore, we are doubling down on our productivity efforts. And I'm working with the teams on multiple areas that we can simplify our business, reduce our cost, take advantage of our procurement savings, as we should be getting into a slightly deflationary environment, while at the same time, making sure that we are having functional excellence, which is we are delivering from the center what really the businesses need.

然後我談到第二個問題，也就是推動現金成本和資本。正如胡安所提到的和我所說的，這裡有很多機會來控制我們所控制的東西。因此，我們正在加倍努力提高生產力。我正在與多個領域的團隊合作，我們可以簡化我們的業務，降低成本，利用我們的採購節省，因為我們應該進入一個輕微的通貨緊縮環境，同時確保我們擁有卓越的功能，這就是我們從中心提供企業真正需要的東西。

So we are following a zero-based approach in certain of our functions. We are looking at all the cost and saying, what are we doing? Do we get the value for it or not?

因此，我們在某些​​職能中遵循從零開始的方法。我們審視所有成本並問，我們在做什麼？我們是否得到了它的價值？

Similarly, when it thinks about capital, you've heard about capital allocation. When you think about CapEx, it's a stage gate model. So making sure that we are investing in areas because there are tremendous opportunities for investment available to us, but at the same time, making sure that we're getting a return, and we're going to follow a stage-gate approach, which means we'll fund you a little bit.

同樣，當涉及資本時，您聽說過資本配置。當你想到資本支出時，它是一個階段性模式。因此，確保我們投資的領域是因為我們有巨大的投資機會，但同時，確保我們獲得回報，我們將遵循階段性方法，即意味著我們將資助你一點。

We'll see what the return looks like at that point in time. If you hit the milestones, you get the next funding. Otherwise, the money goes to somebody else. So create some internal tension to make sure that everyone is fighting for the last dollar of CapEx that's available.

我們將看看當時的回報情況。如果您達到了里程碑，您將獲得下一筆資金。不然錢就到別人手裡了。因此，要製造一些內部緊張局勢，以確保每個人都在為可用的資本支出中的最後一美元而奮鬥。

Then I go into digital, and I think there's tremendous opportunity for you. The Kisty and team who's our CIO, has done a really nice job. The company has done a nice job of improving the infrastructure that we have. We still have a long way to go in that, but I feel there's also a chance here to accelerate some of the ability to use data and data analytics to drive business outcomes. So that's another priority of mine.

然後我進入數位領域，我認為這對你來說有巨大的機會。我們的 CIO Kisty 和團隊做得非常出色。該公司在改善我們現有的基礎設施方面做得很好。在這方面我們還有很長的路要走，但我覺得這裡還有機會加速使用數據和數據分析來推動業務成果的能力。這是我的另一個優先事項。

And then I would tell you, back to portfolio. The company has always said they will look at portfolio. I've said that, too, in my prepared remarks and my three months last year, I've seen there are opportunities here that we are working on to make sure we simplify our portfolio. And I look at it from a simple lens of, do I have a market and do I have a right to win first. And if I do, am I the rightful owner of that asset and what return are we getting? And Juan and I have spent quite some time together on talking about this. He's always been open to portfolio, and we are going to continue working on that.

然後我會告訴你，回到投資組合。該公司一直表示他們將考慮投資組合。我也說過，在我準備好的演講和去年的三個月中，我看到了我們正在努力確保簡化我們的作品集的機會。我從一個簡單的角度來看這個問題：我是否有市場，我是否有權利先獲勝。如果我這樣做了，我是該資產的合法所有者嗎？胡安和我花了很長時間在一起討論這個問題。他一直對投資組合持開放態度，我們將繼續努力。

So Manav, I don't know if I answered your question, a long answer to your short question, but a lot of priorities, and then I'll end with where I started, which is back to the basics. You got to drive cost, cash, and capital in this environment where we know that the commodity cycle may not be our best friend. So self-help is truly our best friend. And that's what the teams are working on. So hopefully, I answered your question.

所以馬納夫，我不知道我是否回答了你的問題，對你的簡短問題的一個長答案，但有很多優先事項，然後我將以我開始的地方結束，即回到基礎知識。在我們知道大宗商品週期可能不是我們最好的朋友的環境中，你必須提高成本、現金和資本。所以自助確實是我們最好的朋友。這就是團隊正在努力的方向。希望我回答了你的問題。

No, you absolutely did. My very quick follow-up and just more on the policy side. We saw some news that there are some changes to China export taxes as it relates to [Yuco] and maybe Chinese (technical difficulty) will make its way less to the global markets. There's a little bit of possibility that President Trump might imposed some tariffs on any way [Yuco] coming into the US. So I'm just trying to understand from the perspective of ADM, is China exports less (technical difficulty) to the global markets, how can that help ADM?

不，你絕對做到了。我的跟進非常迅速，更多的是政策上的跟進。我們看到一些消息指出中國與[Yuco]相關的出口稅有一些變化，也許中國（技術難度）將減少進入全球市場的機會。川普總統有可能對進入美國的任何方式 [Yuco] 徵收一些關稅。所以我只是想從ADM的角度來理解，中國向全球市場的出口（技術難度）是否較少，這對ADM有何幫助？

Yes. Thank you. You see, Manav, what happened when the flood of [ Yuco] came into the US. So than basically soybean oil or canola oil lost percentage, low share as a percentage of feedstocks, if you will. And there were a lot of concerns on the origin of some of this [Yuco] there have been a lot of questions by people about making sure we verify that origin, especially when you start seeing big palm oil producing countries, being big exporters of [Yuco] also.

是的。謝謝。你看，馬納夫，當[尤科]洪水湧入美國時發生了什麼。因此，如果你願意的話，大豆油或菜籽油基本上失去了百分比，作為原料的百分比較低。人們對其中一些[Yuco]的來源有很多擔憂，人們對確保我們驗證其來源提出了很多疑問，特別是當你開始看到棕櫚油生產大國成為[的主要出口國時。

So I think part of that is to make sure that whoever is playing here is playing with the right rules. So I don't know about the regulation. There are a lot of speculation at this point in time about regulations. We just want a level playing field. We just want to work on products that are real what they say they are. And I think that's what we aim for is transparency in the rules, then we play by the rules.

所以我認為其中一部分是確保在這裡比賽的人都遵守正確的規則。所以我不知道這個規定。目前有很多關於監管的猜測。我們只是想要一個公平的競爭環境。我們只想開發名副其實的產品。我認為我們的目標是規則透明，然後我們就按規則行事。

Steven Haynes, Morgan Stanley.

史蒂文‧海恩斯，摩根士丹利。

Maybe just coming back to the cost side of things. I think your SG&A is up quite a bit this year and accelerating a bit, maybe more than kind of what would be implied by normal inflation. So I guess when we're thinking about that kind of ramp up this year, what are some of the key drivers there? And then how are we supposed to think about that going into next year, hearing with your comments about more focus on controlling costs?

也許只是回到成本方面。我認為你們今年的銷售管理費用（SG&A）增長了很多，並且加速了一點，也許超過了正常通貨膨脹所暗示的水平。所以我想當我們考慮今年的這種成長時，有哪些關鍵驅動因素？那麼，聽到您關於更加關注控製成本的評論，我們應該如何考慮明年的情況？

So I'll just start with answering the question on what's driving the increase in SG&A, There are a couple of drivers here. One is the higher litigation costs that we have in defending our -- sorry, the high litigation costs that we have with the material weakness that we have. So that's number one.

所以我首先要回答是什麼推動了SG&A 的成長，這裡有幾個驅動因素。一是我們在辯護時需要承擔更高的訴訟成本——抱歉，由於我們的物質弱點，我們面臨著高昂的訴訟成本。所以這是第一。

Number two is the company has invested in digital transformation over the last few years, and that's the cost that is increasing there to support the transformation of our ERP.

第二是公司在過去幾年中對數位轉型進行了投資，而支持我們 ERP 轉型的成本也在增加。

Number three is we got higher interest costs. that we have, which is also reported -- sorry, you were just asking SG&A, not corporate. So those are my two big drivers that drive it, which is GT and then some litigation costs. We also have normal merit increase that goes into that, but that's partially offset by the lower incentive compensation that as we see the results of the company right now, you're going to see lower.

第三是我們的利息成本更高。我們有，這也被報導過——抱歉，你只是問SG&A，而不是公司。所以這是我推動它的兩個主要驅動因素，即GT，然後是一些訴訟費用。我們也有正常的績效加薪，但這被較低的激勵薪酬所部分抵消，正如我們現在看到的公司業績，你會看到更低的激勵薪酬。

So when you look at all of that, back to your question also what are we going to do about all of this. As I said, a couple of things is, we need to continue investing in digital transformation as we go through that. Secondly, I would tell you that as we work through some of the zero-based budgeting exercises that we have here, we need to make sure that where there is opportunities, there is value being added for those activities. That's what we are working on.

因此，當您查看所有這些內容時，請回到您的問題，即我們將對此採取什麼措施。正如我所說，有幾件事是，我們需要在經歷這個過程時繼續投資數位轉型。其次，我想告訴大家，當我們進行一些零基預算練習時，我們需要確保只要有機會，這些活動就會增加價值。這就是我們正在努力的方向。

And then the third piece that is an add to the cost, which is M&A. So as we have bought four companies that closed in 2024, you get added cost, that added cost comes through into SG&A. But that's also where we have to keep looking at it and saying, making sure the synergies for those M&As are coming through, too.

第三部分是增加成本，即併購。因此，由於我們收購了 2024 年關閉的四家公司，因此您將獲得額外的成本，這些額外的成本將計入 SG&A。但這也是我們必須繼續關注並確保這些併購的綜效也能實現的地方。

So I would say in the long run, when I look at this, this is where we clearly have an opportunity to continue driving our focus on cost. And I would do cost in two places. One is cost in SG&A. The second cost is our manufacturing cost, which Juan has already talked about, and I've talked about where we should be able to keep driving efficiencies, which would help us reduce cost.

所以我想說，從長遠來看，當我看待這個問題時，我們顯然有機會繼續關注成本。我會在兩個地方做成本。一是SG&A 成本。第二個成本是我們的製造成本，胡安已經談到了這一點，我也談到了我們應該能夠在哪些方面繼續提高效率，這將有助於我們降低成本。

Tami Zakaria, JPMorgan.

塔米·扎卡里亞，摩根大通。

My question is on crush volumes. I think I saw on your slide, you expect high single-digit percent type volume growth in the fourth quarter. So I'm just curious, is that a good starting point for next year, barring any policy development? Or can you share any initial thoughts on how you're thinking about volume?

我的問題是關於擠壓量。我想我在你的投影片上看到，你預計第四季的銷量將出現高個位數百分比成長。所以我只是好奇，除非有任何政策制定，這是否是明年的一個好起點？或者您能分享一下您對音量的初步想法嗎？

Yes, I would say -- as you said, if you take the regulatory uncertainty out and what's going to happen with people adjusting their crush because of the blender tax credit to produce a tax credit issue, whenever that's going to be solved, I think that level that we are disclosing is probably a reasonable level on normal conditions, if you will yes. And that basically is just the addition of Spiritwood that is running at full capacity, basically, almost full capacity.

是的，我想說- 正如你所說，如果你排除監管的不確定性，以及人們因攪拌機稅收抵免而調整他們的壓榨量以產生稅收抵免問題會發生什麼，我想無論什麼時候這個問題都會得到解決如果您願意的話，我們披露的該水平可能是正常條件下的合理水平。這基本上只是滿載運行的靈木的添加，基本上，幾乎滿載運行。

Understood. That's helpful. And then just following up on the tariff question from earlier. Are you preparing for any either positive or negative impacts should the incoming new administration (technical difficulty) on foreign imports, maybe starting in January, do you see any immediate opportunities or even risks to business when initial tariffs go into effect?

明白了。這很有幫助。然後跟進之前的關稅問題。如果即將上任的新政府（技術困難）對外國進口商品產生任何積極或消極的影響，您是否正在準備應對，也許從一月份開始，當初始關稅生效時，您是否看到任何直接的機會甚至是商業風險？

Yes. Of course, our business is running a lot of scenario planning for what could happen. Normally, what we see in this circumstances is the trade flows adjust. At the end of the day, you continue to have certain demand in the world. It's just satisfied in a different way. So that's where in those situations is where the footprint, the global footprint and the team of ADM normally shines because it allows us with a lot of agility to repurpose those trade flows to take advantage of the conditions. So we are remaining agile and again, doing a lot of scenario planning to be ready.

是的。當然，我們的企業正在針對可能發生的情況進行大量的情境規劃。通常情況下，我們在這種情況下看到的是貿易流量的調整。歸根究底，你在世界上仍然有一定的需求。只是用另一種方​​式來滿足。因此，在這些情況下，ADM 的足跡、全球足跡和團隊通常會發揮作用，因為它使我們能夠非常靈活地重新調整這些貿易流的用途，以利用這些條件。因此，我們再次保持敏捷性，進行了大量的場景規劃以做好準備。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾，美國銀行。

You did make a comment early in the call about China increasing production of certain commodities that is impacting trade. And I was just wondering if you can talk a little bit more about that, what are these commodities you're talking about and whether this is something that's more cyclical like higher crop production because of favourable weather or something more structural, certainly more policy, I guess, driven that could impact global trade in the longer term?

您確實在電話會議之初就中國增加某些影響貿易的商品產量發表了評論。我只是想知道你是否可以多談談這個問題，你在談論的這些商品是什麼，以及這是否是更具週期性的東西，比如由於有利的天氣或更具結構性的因素（當然更多的政策）而導致作物產量增加，我想，從長遠來看，這可能會影響全球貿易？

Yes. No, I think that China has shown this year that they wanted to encourage or incentive the local corn production. And as such, they have reduced their imports of corn. I think in -- that's probably what I was referring to, their imports of corn this year are going to be lower.

是的。不，我認為中國今年已經表明他們希望鼓勵或激勵當地玉米生產。因此，他們減少了玉米進口。我認為——這可能是我所指的，他們今年的玉米進口量將會減少。

I think in terms of soybean, the situation is slightly different. I think they are preparing for the eventuality of having to -- have tariffs or whatever. So they've been buying and they've been refreshing their reserves. So I think that in that sense, the amount that they imported has been about the same. I would say it was more a corn comment.

我認為就大豆而言，情況略有不同。我認為他們正在為不得不徵收關稅或其他什麼的可能性做準備。因此，他們一直在購買並刷新儲備。所以我認為從這個意義上來說，他們的進口量大致相同。我想說這更像是玉米評論。

Okay. Perfect. And I just want to follow up a little bit on -- to ask about the depreciation of the Brazilian [real] recently. And I'm just wondering what impact could this have mostly to your bottom line in Q4, but especially in 2025, given that's now under -- it's now over [6]?

好的。完美的。我只想跟進一下 - 詢問最近巴西雷亞爾的貶值情況。我只是想知道這會對您第四季的利潤產生什麼影響，尤其是在 2025 年，因為現在已經結束了 [6]？

I think, Salvador, the biggest impact that happened with devaluations in Latin America is how they impact farmer selling. You see it in Argentina now that the currency or the spread with the two exchange rates is just 10%. The farmer is a more normal seller, if you will, when they need cash and more a steady seller. In Brazil, now with the devaluation, the farmer has been more reluctant seller if you will. So I would say when you look at Latin America, that's probably what impacts us the most is the ability of the farmer to be to be a commercialize of grain.

薩爾瓦多，我認為，拉丁美洲貨幣貶值帶來的最大影響是對農民銷售的影響。你現在在阿根廷看到，貨幣或兩種匯率的利差只有 10%。如果你願意的話，當農民需要現金時，他們是一個更正常的賣家，而且是一個更穩定的賣家。在巴西，現在隨著貨幣貶值，如果你願意的話，農民更不願意出售。所以我想說，當你看看拉丁美洲時，對我們影響最大的可能是農民將穀物商業化的能力。

We have no further questions. I'll now hand back to Megan Britt for any final remarks.

我們沒有其他問題了。現在我將把最後的評論交還給梅根·布里特。

Thank you so much for joining the call today and for your interest in ADM. Please feel free to follow up directly with me if you have any additional questions.

非常感謝您今天參加電話會議以及對 ADM 的興趣。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時直接與我聯絡。

Ladies and gentlemen, today's call has now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。我們衷心感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。