Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the ADM First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 ADM 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）提醒您，本次電話會議將被錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Megan Britt, Vice President, Investor Relations for ADM. Ms. Britt, you may begin.

現在我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人：ADM 投資人關係副總裁 Megan Britt。Britt 女士，您可以開始了。

Hello, and welcome to ADM's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Our prepared remarks today will be led by Juan Luciano, our Board Chair and Chief Executive Officer; and Ismael Roig, our Interim Chief Financial Officer. We have prepared presentation slides to supplement our remarks on the call today, which are posted on the Investor Relations section of the ADM website and through the link to our webcast.

各位好，歡迎參加 ADM 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的預先準備發言將由董事會主席兼執行長 Juan Luciano，以及代理財務長 Ismael Roig 主持。我們已準備簡報投影片以補充今天電話會議中的發言，投影片已發布於 ADM 官網的投資人關係專區，並可透過網路直播連結取得。

Some of our comments and materials may constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risks and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation. To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events.

我們的部分評論與資料可能構成前瞻性陳述，反映管理層對未來經濟情勢、產業狀況、公司表現與財務結果的目前觀點與估計。這些陳述與資料係基於多項假設與因素，並受風險與不確定性影響。ADM 已在向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的報告中提供更多資訊，說明可能導致實際結果與本簡報所述存在重大差異的假設與因素。在適用法律允許的範圍內，ADM 不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

I'll now turn the call over to Juan.

接下來我把電話交給 Juan。

Thank you, Megan. Today, ADM reported first quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.46, adjusted segment operating profit of $1.3 billion and a trailing 4-quarter average adjusted ROIC of 11.2%. Our first quarter operating cash flow before working capital was $900 million. In a year where the buildup of grain and oilseed supply is expected to create pressure on margins, our teams are proactively taking action to manage through the cycle, driving structural earnings, ROIC and cash flow generation. Our strong performance and disciplined management of our balance sheet continue to allow us to invest in our business and return cash to shareholders.

謝謝你，Megan。今天，ADM 公布第一季調整後每股盈餘為 1.46 美元，調整後分部營業利益為 13 億美元，過去連續 4 季平均調整後投入資本報酬率（ROIC）為 11.2%。第一季在扣除營運資金變動前的營運現金流為 9 億美元。在預期穀物與油籽供給增加、將對利潤率造成壓力的一年裡，我們的團隊正主動採取行動以度過景氣循環，推動結構性獲利、ROIC 與現金流創造。我們強勁的表現與對資產負債表的紀律管理，持續讓我們得以投資業務並回饋現金給股東。

Next slide, please. Last month, we laid out three priorities for value creation in 2024: one, managing through the cycle; two, Nutrition recovery; and three, enhanced return of cash to shareholders. We made progress on each of these priorities in the first quarter. Our efforts to manage through the cycle highlight ADM's ability to mitigate challenging headwinds while building structurally on enduring global trends such as sustainability.

請看下一張投影片。上個月，我們提出 2024 年創造價值的三項優先事項：第一，度過景氣循環；第二，營養業務復甦；第三，提升對股東的現金回饋。我們在第一季於這三項優先事項上皆取得進展。我們在度過景氣循環方面的努力，凸顯 ADM 在建立以永續等長期全球趨勢為基礎的結構性能力之同時，亦能緩解具挑戰性的逆風。

To share a few examples of progress in the first quarter. We have been ramping up production at our Green Bison joint venture with Marathon with increased volumes and utilization in April, and we're expecting to be a sustained full run rate for harvest this fall. We are continuing to evolve the Carbohydrate Solutions business through decarbonization, driving nearly 10% volume growth in BioSolutions in Q1 while managing solid demand across the core business. Driven by increasing demand for sustainably sourced feedstocks and solutions, we are announcing today that we not only exceeded our 2023 goal of 2 million acres in our regenerative ag programs, we have also increased our 2025 acreage goal, from 4 million to 5 million acres. This growth highlights the leadership role ADM is playing across the regen ag landscape, which is built upon the long-standing relationships we have with our more than 200,000 farmers partners.

分享第一季進展的幾個例子：我們與 Marathon 的 Green Bison 合資企業正在提升產量；4 月的出貨量與產能利用率已增加，並預期在今年秋季收成季可維持滿載運轉。我們持續透過去碳化推動碳水化合物解決方案（Carbohydrate Solutions）業務轉型，在第一季 BioSolutions 的銷量成長近 10%，同時核心業務需求維持穩健。受永續來源原料與解決方案需求增加帶動，我們今天宣布：不僅已超越 2023 年再生農業（regenerative ag）計畫 200 萬英畝的目標，也將 2025 年英畝目標由 400 萬提高至 500 萬英畝。此成長凸顯 ADM 在再生農業領域所扮演的領導角色，而這建立在我們與超過 20 萬名農民夥伴長期合作關係之上。

The drive for excellence program is focused on uncovering efficiency and effectiveness opportunities across ADM, taking action to improve outcomes and deliver cost savings. To date, we have generated a pipeline of nearly 1,200 validated proposals. Many of these are already delivering results. For example, colleagues in Thailand have developed chatbot to automate processing of thousands of logistic transactions previously done with the manual process, reducing errors and dramatically improving operating performance. Colleagues in Spain have released capacity in our Valencia extract facility by more than 35% by adjusting the extraction timing. These projects or more like these will support us in achieving our aggressive cost savings objective of $500 million over the next 2 years.

卓越推動（drive for excellence）計畫聚焦於在 ADM 全公司發掘效率與效能提升機會，並採取行動改善成果、實現成本節省。迄今我們已建立近 1,200 項經驗證提案的管線，其中許多已開始產生成效。例如，泰國同仁開發聊天機器人，自動化處理過去以人工方式完成的數千筆物流交易，降低錯誤並大幅提升營運表現。西班牙同仁則透過調整萃取時程，使我們瓦倫西亞萃取工廠的產能釋放超過 35%。這些以及更多類似專案，將支持我們在未來兩年達成 5 億美元的積極成本節省目標。

Moving to Nutrition. The team is focused on actions across all areas of planned recovery, and we've seen expected sequential improvement coming out of the fourth quarter. The impact of these actions will accelerate in the back half of the year, consistent with what we mentioned in the last earnings call. Let me provide a few examples of progress we're making across the targeted areas. Our focus on operations and supply chain has helped us debottleneck some of our demand fulfillment challenges, particularly in EMEA Flavors, where the team has rallied to adjust our fulfillment processes following the go-live of One ADM and improved volumes delivered sequentially. We are leveraging our improved M&A playbook to support the integration of our most recent flavor acquisitions and now forecast better results than the initial deal model estimates. To increase speed, agility and responsiveness to customer needs while delivering more wins across each market segment, we have fine-tuned our go-to-market and CoE organizations to best align to demand.

接著談營養（Nutrition）。團隊正專注於復甦計畫各面向的行動，我們也看到自第四季以來符合預期的逐季改善。這些行動的影響將在下半年加速顯現，與我們在上次財報電話會議所提一致。以下提供幾個在重點領域的進展例子：我們對營運與供應鏈的聚焦，協助我們排除部分需求履約的瓶頸，特別是在 EMEA 風味（Flavors）業務；該團隊在 One ADM 上線後迅速調整履約流程，使交付量逐季提升。我們運用改善後的併購（M&A）作業手冊，支持近期風味收購案的整合，目前預測成果優於交易初始模型估計。為提升速度、敏捷性與對客戶需求的回應能力，並在各市場區隔取得更多勝利，我們已微調市場進入（go-to-market）與卓越中心（CoE）組織，以最佳方式對齊需求。

Looking to our capital allocation efforts. We have maintained our balanced capital allocation approach while leveraging excess cash flow for enhanced returns to shareholders. We returned a significant amount of cash to shareholders to date, as we repurchased more than 20 million shares. As mentioned last month, our focus for excess capital deployment will remain centered on the shareholder. In summary, we are making measurable progress across each of our 3 major priority areas in 2024, which is setting us up well to navigate the market headwinds we are facing this year and deliver in line with our expectations.

再來看資本配置。我們維持平衡的資本配置方針，同時運用超額現金流以提升對股東的回報。迄今我們已向股東返還大量現金，因為我們回購了超過 2,000 萬股。如上月所述，我們對超額資本的運用仍將以股東為核心。總結而言，2024 年我們在三大優先事項上皆取得可衡量的進展，這使我們能更好地因應今年面臨的市場逆風，並交出符合我們預期的成果。

I would now like to turn the call over to Ismael for more detail on the first quarter financial results. Ismael?

接下來我想把電話交給 Ismael，請他更詳細說明第一季財務結果。Ismael？

Thank you, Juan. Let's start on Slide 6, which provides overall segment operating profit and EPS for the first quarter of 2024. Adjusted segment operating profit was $1.3 billion for the first quarter, a 24% decrease versus the prior year. At a high level, operating profit was primarily down year-over-year in Ag Services and Oilseeds and Nutrition. In the Other segment, which includes ADMIS and captive insurance, we had a 25% increase in operating profit.

謝謝你，Juan。我們先看第 6 張投影片，該頁提供 2024 年第一季整體分部營業利益與每股盈餘（EPS）。第一季調整後分部營業利益為 13 億美元，較去年同期下降 24%。整體而言，營業利益年減主要來自農業服務與油籽（Ag Services and Oilseeds）以及營養（Nutrition）。在「其他」分部（包含 ADMIS 與自保保險）方面，營業利益成長 25%。

Adjusted earnings per share were $1.46 for the quarter. Lower pricing and execution margins, primarily driven by margin normalization in the AS&O business led to a $1 per share decrease. This includes lower mark-to-market impact in AS&O of approximately $0.38 per share. Our enhanced focus on operational excellence and improving the reliability of our assets as well as the ramp-up of our Green Bison JV, led to volume improvement in the AS&O segment, resulting in a $0.20 per share increase in EPS versus the prior year. Lower manufacturing costs and input costs led to a $0.15 per share increase versus the prior year, partially offset by negative impacts associated with unplanned downtime at our Decatur East facility.

本季調整後每股盈餘為 1.46 美元。較低的定價與執行利潤率（主要由 AS&O 業務利潤率正常化所致）使每股盈餘減少 1 美元。其中包含 AS&O 按市價評價（mark-to-market）影響較低，約為每股 0.38 美元。我們更聚焦於營運卓越並提升資產可靠度，以及 Green Bison 合資企業的產能爬坡，帶動 AS&O 分部銷量改善，使每股盈餘較去年同期增加 0.20 美元。較低的製造成本與投入成本使每股盈餘較去年同期增加 0.15 美元，但部分被 Decatur East 廠區非計畫性停機所帶來的負面影響抵銷。

Higher equity earnings, primarily related to Wilmar, attributed a $0.07 per share increase versus the prior year. Increased corporate costs related to the One ADM implementation and legal fees drove a decrease of $0.11 per share versus the prior year. In Other, benefits from share repurchases more than offset negative impacts related to a higher adjusted income tax rate, leading to a $0.06 per share increase versus the prior year.

權益法收益較高（主要與 Wilmar 相關）使每股盈餘較去年同期增加 0.07 美元。與 One ADM 導入及法律費用相關的公司成本增加，使每股盈餘較去年同期減少 0.11 美元。在「其他」分部，股票回購帶來的效益，超過調整後所得稅率上升的負面影響，使每股盈餘較去年同期增加 0.06 美元。

Moving to Slide 7. Let's look at our segment performance for AS&O. For the first quarter, the AS&O team delivered $864 million in operating profit, reflecting increasing headwinds from lower commodity prices and ample supplies, partially offset by improvements in process volumes and manufacturing costs as we enhanced our focus on items within our control. The Ag Services subsegment operating profit was lower versus the prior year, primarily due to the stabilization of trade flows leading to lower global trade and risk management results. Slower farmer selling also negatively impacted export volumes and margins in South America. Crushing subsegment operating profit for the quarter of $232 million was lower versus the prior year. Increased imports of used cooking oil and the anticipation of large South American supplies negatively impacted North American soy crush margins, more than offsetting the benefits from improved process volumes and lower manufacturing costs. There were positive mark-to-market timing impacts during the quarter of approximately $40 million versus positive timing impacts of approximately $240 million in the first quarter of 2023. Refined Products and Other subsegment results were $157 million. Results were driven by weaker North American refining margins due to the increased imports of used cooking oil as well as negative mark-to-market timing impacts of approximately $30 million versus positive impacts of approximately $40 million in the prior year. Equity earnings from Wilmar were $149 million during the first quarter, higher than the prior year.

接著看第 7 張投影片。我們來看 AS&O 的分部表現。第一季 AS&O 團隊創造 8.64 億美元營業利益，反映較低的大宗商品價格與供給充裕帶來的逆風；但在我們加強聚焦可控事項之下，加工量與製造成本改善，部分抵銷了上述影響。農業服務（Ag Services）子分部營業利益較去年同期下降，主要因貿易流向趨於穩定，導致全球貿易與風險管理成果降低。農民銷售速度放緩亦對南美出口量與利潤率造成負面影響。本季壓榨（Crushing）子分部營業利益為 2.32 億美元，較去年同期下降。廢食用油進口增加以及市場預期南美供給龐大，對北美大豆壓榨利潤率造成負面影響，且其影響超過加工量改善與製造成本下降所帶來的效益。本季按市價評價的時點影響為正，約 4,000 萬美元；相較之下，2023 年第一季的正向時點影響約為 2.4 億美元。精煉產品與其他（Refined Products and Other）子分部結果為 1.57 億美元，主要受北美精煉利潤率走弱影響，原因為廢食用油進口增加，以及按市價評價的負面時點影響約 3,000 萬美元；相較去年同期為正向影響約 4,000 萬美元。第一季來自 Wilmar 的權益法收益為 1.49 億美元，高於去年同期。

Moving to Slide 8. Let's look at Carbohydrate Solutions. For the first quarter of 2024, Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit was $248 million. The team executed well in a solid demand environment as well as advanced our BioSolutions platform with strong volume growth.

接著看第 8 張投影片。我們來看碳水化合物解決方案（Carbohydrate Solutions）。2024 年第一季，碳水化合物解決方案事業部營業利益為 2.48 億美元。團隊在穩健的需求環境下執行良好，並在強勁的銷量成長帶動下，推進我們的 BioSolutions 平台。

Turning to the subsegments. In the Starches and Sweeteners subsegment, strong Starches and Sweeteners margins in North America were offset by pressured domestic ethanol margins due to strong industry production and elevated stocks as well as moderating margins in the EMEA region. In the Vantage Corn Processing subsegment, strong export demand for sustainably certified ethanol supported both volumes and improved margins, leading to an improvement in year-over-year results.

接著看各子事業。在澱粉與甜味劑（Starches and Sweeteners）子事業中，北美澱粉與甜味劑的強勁利潤率，被國內乙醇利潤率承壓所抵銷，原因包括產業產量強勁、庫存偏高，以及 EMEA 地區利潤率趨於溫和。在 Vantage 玉米加工（Vantage Corn Processing）子事業中，對具永續認證乙醇的強勁出口需求同時支撐銷量並改善利潤率，使年對年表現有所提升。

Please turn to Slide 9. Nutrition revenues were $1.8 billion for the quarter. In the Human Nutrition subsegment, strong M&A revenue contributions from our recent acquisitions as well as price and mix benefits in Flavors, were partially offset by lower volumes in plant-based proteins and normalizing pricing in the texturants markets. Our Animal Nutrition subsegment had lower revenues versus the prior year driven by lower pricing and mix. Demand creation has remained strong and provided significant revenue pipeline opportunities. We anticipate steady improvement in demand fulfillment throughout the course of the year, recovering a significant portion of volumes in the second half of the year.

請翻到第 9 張投影片。本季營養（Nutrition）營收為 18 億美元。在人類營養（Human Nutrition）子事業中，近期併購帶來的強勁營收貢獻，以及香料（Flavors）的價格與組合效益，部分被植物性蛋白銷量下降與質地改良劑（texturants）市場價格正常化所抵銷。我們的動物營養（Animal Nutrition）子事業營收較去年同期下降，主要由較低的定價與產品組合所致。需求創造仍維持強勁，並提供顯著的營收管線機會。我們預期全年需求履約將穩步改善，並在下半年回補相當部分的銷量。

Please turn to Slide 10. While we have room to grow on our commitment to restore the growth trajectory of the Nutrition business, we believe Q1 was an important first step, showing sequential improvement from a challenged fourth quarter, evidencing progress in our operations. For the first quarter, Nutrition segment operating profit was $84 million. Human Nutrition subsegment results of $76 million were lower than the prior year, driven primarily from headwinds in the Specialty Ingredients business due to higher fixed cost absorption at Decatur East and normalizing texturants pricing. Animal Nutrition subsegment results of $8 million were higher compared to the prior year, primarily driven by cost optimization efforts and lower commodity prices supporting margins.

請翻到第 10 張投影片。雖然在恢復營養業務成長軌跡的承諾上我們仍有成長空間，但我們認為第一季是重要的第一步：相較於充滿挑戰的第四季呈現季對季改善，並顯示我們營運上的進展。第一季，營養事業部營業利益為 8,400 萬美元。人類營養子事業為 7,600 萬美元，較去年同期下降，主要受專業原料（Specialty Ingredients）業務逆風影響，原因包括 Decatur East 固定成本吸收較高，以及質地改良劑定價正常化。動物營養子事業為 800 萬美元，較去年同期提高，主要受成本優化措施與較低的大宗商品價格支撐利潤率所帶動。

Please turn to Slide 11. For the first quarter, Other segment operating profit was $121 million, up 25% compared to the prior year. The improvement was largely driven by improved captive insurance results on higher program premiums and lower claim losses. In Corporate, unallocated corporate costs increased versus the prior year on higher global technology investments to support digital transformation efforts as well as increased legal fees. Other Corporate was unfavorable compared to the prior year due to an investment valuation loss of approximately $18 million.

請翻到第 11 張投影片。第一季，其他（Other）事業部營業利益為 1.21 億美元，較去年同期成長 25%。改善主要來自自保保險（captive insurance）結果提升，受較高的計畫保費與較低的理賠損失所帶動。在公司（Corporate）方面，未分攤的公司成本較去年同期增加，原因是為支援數位轉型而提高全球科技投資，以及法律費用增加。其他公司項目（Other Corporate）較去年同期不利，原因是約 1,800 萬美元的投資估值損失。

Please turn to Slide 12. With healthy cash flows and a strong balance sheet, we have maintained our balanced capital allocation approach, while leveraging excess cash flow for enhanced returns to shareholders. We entered 2024 with momentum, which has allowed us to return $1.3 billion to shareholders via repurchases during the quarter, with $1 billion being executed through an accelerated share repurchase program. We intend to actualize the additional $1 billion of share repurchases approved last quarter throughout the remainder of the year. We still anticipate capital expenditures will be held at a level aligned with depreciation and amortization, focused largely on investments to secure reliability of asset performance through modernization and digitization efforts.

請翻到第 12 張投影片。憑藉健康的現金流與強健的資產負債表，我們維持平衡的資本配置方針，同時運用超額現金流以提高股東報酬。我們帶著動能進入 2024 年，使我們得以在本季透過庫藏股回購向股東返還 13 億美元，其中 10 億美元是透過加速股份回購計畫（accelerated share repurchase program）執行。我們計畫在今年剩餘期間落實上季核准的額外 10 億美元股份回購。我們仍預期資本支出將維持在與折舊與攤銷相匹配的水準，主要聚焦於透過現代化與數位化投資，確保資產績效的可靠性。

Now let's transition to a discussion on our full year guidance on Slide 13. Our first quarter results were largely in line with expectations, and in turn, our 2024 planning assumptions and EPS guidance remain unchanged. We are raising our corporate net interest expense guidance from approximately $500 million to approximately $525 million, as the Federal Reserve has signaled that the probability of interest rate cuts in 2024 has decreased.

現在讓我們轉到第 13 張投影片，討論全年財測指引。我們第一季結果大致符合預期，因此 2024 年規劃假設與 EPS 指引維持不變。我們將公司淨利息費用指引由約 5 億美元上調至約 5.25 億美元，因為聯準會已釋出訊號，2024 年降息的可能性降低。

Last month, we mentioned that the global grain and oilseed supply is expected to increase, as anticipated improvements in weather would support larger production levels in key South American countries. With this, we anticipate that commodity prices will continue to ease from the recent highs of the past 2 years and the trade flows will adjust at these locations. As a result, we anticipate the global soybean crush margins would moderate in 2024, likely moving into a range of $35 per metric ton to $60 per metric ton. During the first quarter, the team executed well on a strong forward book supported by meal demand, leading to executed soy crush margins of approximately $55 per metric ton. As we look today, we see that the forward curves reflect the assumption of ample South American supplies and the return of Argentinian production, specifically in Q2 and Q3.

上個月我們提到，全球穀物與油籽供給預期將增加，因為天候改善可望支撐南美主要國家的更高產量。在此背景下，我們預期大宗商品價格將持續自過去兩年近期高點回落，貿易流向也將在這些地區進行調整。因此，我們預期 2024 年全球大豆壓榨利差（soybean crush margins）將趨於溫和，可能落在每公噸 35 美元至 60 美元的區間。第一季，團隊在由豆粕需求支撐的強勁遠期訂單（forward book）下執行良好，使已執行的大豆壓榨利差約為每公噸 55 美元。就目前來看，我們看到遠期曲線反映了南美供給充裕以及阿根廷產量回歸的假設，特別是在第二季與第三季。

While the supply side certainly has pushed forward curves to the lower end of that range in the near term, we remain constructive from the demand side. We continue to expect vegetable oil demand growth from renewable diesel, as large facilities ramp up in Q2 and Q3, despite the increase in imports of used cooking oil. From the soybean meal side, lower soybean meal prices are incentivizing demand, supporting producer profitability, and in turn, leading to higher inclusion rates.

雖然供給面確實在短期內將遠期曲線推向該區間的較低端，但從需求面來看，我們仍持建設性看法。即使廢食用油進口增加，我們仍預期可再生柴油帶動的植物油需求將成長，因為大型設施將在第二季與第三季逐步放量。就豆粕端而言，較低的豆粕價格正在刺激需求、支撐生產者獲利，進而帶動更高的添加比例（inclusion rates）。

Now moving to the breakdown of expectations by segment for Q2 2024 on Slide 14. In AS&O, we anticipate the second quarter to be significantly lower versus elevated prior year levels. We anticipate our average global soy crush margin to be towards the lower end of the guided range during the second quarter, as the market balances strong soybean availability against increased crush capacity. We still remain confident in our full year planning assumptions as we move through the seasonally lower middle of the year, as the world pivots to South American production.

現在來看第 14 張投影片，按事業部拆解 2024 年第二季的預期。在農業服務與油籽（AS&O）方面，我們預期第二季將顯著低於去年同期的高基期水準。由於市場在強勁的大豆供給可得性與增加的壓榨產能之間取得平衡，我們預期第二季全球平均大豆壓榨利差將偏向指引區間的低端。隨著我們進入全年季節性較弱的年中階段、全球重心轉向南美產量，我們對全年規劃假設仍保持信心。

In Carbohydrate Solutions, we anticipate the second quarter to be higher versus the prior year, driven by solid demand and margins in North American Starches and Sweeteners, partially offset by moderating margins in wheat milling and international corn milling after elevated results in the prior year period. We anticipate solid demand for ethanol, both domestically and in the export markets, similar to the prior year. For Nutrition, the second quarter is expected to be lower versus the prior year as we faced headwinds in Specialty Ingredients. We anticipate to see another quarter of sequential improvement as we continue to make progress in demand fulfillment.

在碳水化合物解決方案方面，我們預期第二季將高於去年同期，主要受北美澱粉與甜味劑需求與利潤率穩健帶動；但在去年同期表現偏高的基期下，小麥製粉與國際玉米製粉利潤率趨於溫和，將部分抵銷。我們預期乙醇在國內與出口市場的需求將維持穩健，與去年同期相近。至於營養業務，第二季預期將低於去年同期，因專業原料面臨逆風。我們預期隨著需求履約持續改善，將再出現一季的季對季改善。

Back to you, Juan.

交給你了，Juan。

Thank you, Ismael. Please turn to Slide 15. As you can see, our team is continuing to improve execution excellence across our strategic and operational priorities, which requires a level of agility that is a hallmark of ADM's workforce. We are focusing the organization in a combination of productivity and innovation to help offset increasingly challenging market conditions based on growing commodity supply. Our teams are looking for every opportunity to manage what we can control, remaining nimble to adjust quickly to external circumstances while advancing our strategy.

謝謝你，Ismael。請翻到第 15 張投影片。如各位所見，我們的團隊持續在策略與營運優先事項上提升卓越執行力，這需要一定程度的敏捷性，而這正是 ADM 員工隊伍的標誌。我們正以生產力與創新相結合的方式聚焦組織，以協助抵銷因大宗商品供給增加而帶來、日益具挑戰性的市場環境。我們的團隊正尋找每一個機會去管理我們可控的事項，保持靈活以快速因應外部情勢，同時推進我們的策略。

While we look ahead to the rest of the year, our business priorities in 2024 put us in a position to manage through this cycle. Through the differentiation and evolution of our business models in Ag Services and Oilseeds and carb solutions, our drive for excellence program, the recovery of our Nutrition business and continued focus on shareholder returns, we have confidence in our outlook for the full year.

展望今年剩餘時間，我們 2024 年的業務優先事項使我們處於能夠度過此一循環的位置。透過在農業服務與油籽以及碳水化合物解決方案中對商業模式的差異化與演進、我們的卓越推動（drive for excellence）計畫、營養業務的復甦，以及持續聚焦股東報酬，我們對全年展望充滿信心。

Thanks for your time today. We look forward to taking your questions. Operator, please open the line for questions.

感謝各位今天撥冗參與。我們期待回答各位的問題。接線員，請開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question for today comes from Andrew Strelzik of BMO.

（接線員指示）今天的第一個問題來自 BMO 的 Andrew Strelzik。

I guess I wanted to ask about the interplay between U.S. and South America crops and timing and farmer selling in terms of the implications for crush margins and how you're thinking about that. It's just it seems like you've got some delayed farmer selling out of South America that could push out the timing to which that crop comes to market. And so I guess I'm just curious how you're thinking about the balance there and ultimately, kind of the confidence that you have as we get into the back part of the year, that you see crush margins consistent with your expectations.

我想問的是，美國與南美作物之間的相互影響、時點，以及農民售糧時機，對壓榨利差的意涵，以及你們如何看待這件事。看起來南美那邊農民售糧有些延後，可能會把作物進入市場的時間往後推。所以我想了解你們如何看待其中的平衡，以及最終當我們進入下半年時，你們對壓榨利差能符合你們預期的信心程度。

Yes. Thank you, Andrew. So what we're seeing in South America at the moment, Brazil has had a little bit of a better selling last couple of weeks from the farmer perspective, given that with the harvest and also some of the devaluation of the real. So we've seen the crush margins there for Q2 improving a little bit around our portfolio of products.

是的。謝謝你，Andrew。就我們目前在南美看到的情況而言，從農民的角度來看，巴西在過去幾週的銷售情況稍微好一些，主要是因為收割進行中，以及雷亞爾貶值的影響。因此，我們看到當地第二季（Q2）在我們產品組合範圍內的壓榨利潤率略有改善。

In Argentina, a little bit more difficult to read. You know Argentina with the economic plans and the uncertainty about how the government navigates through the difficult times. There are also a lot of -- even when the farmer may agree to sell, there are some strikes like right now. There are some strikes in Argentina that are popping through every sector of the economy. So a little bit more difficult to predict. But the reality is all that crop will come to the market, and we're starting to see that in crush margins, and you can see that.

阿根廷方面就比較難判讀一些。你知道，阿根廷的經濟計畫以及政府如何在艱困時期中推進的各種不確定性。此外，還有很多——即使農民可能同意出售，仍會出現像現在這樣的罷工。阿根廷各個經濟部門都陸續出現罷工。因此更難預測。但現實是，那些作物終究會進入市場，我們也開始在壓榨利潤率上看到這一點，你也看得到。

So what Ismael was reading in his remarks is that we highlighted a range of crush for the year. We operated in the first quarter, mostly in the higher part of that range. We will move in the second and third quarter, as traditionally happen when South America has a big drop towards the low end of that range. And then we see at the end of the year, September onwards, when we have a crop here in the U.S. where our margins will recover. So that's the way we see the year.

所以 Ismael 在他的發言中提到的是，我們強調了今年壓榨利潤的區間。我們在第一季的營運大多落在該區間的較高端。到了第二季和第三季，我們將會下移——這是傳統上常見的情況，因為南美在這段期間通常會出現較大的下滑，往區間的低端走。然後我們看到年底、從九月之後開始，當美國這邊有作物上市時，我們的利潤率將會回升。所以我們對今年的看法就是如此。

We continue to see a strong meal demand as soybean meal becomes cheaper and it gets more favor in the inclusions, especially when we see some maybe bottom out of profitability from the poultry sector. So that bodes well for our demand. And we have new RGD plants coming on stream in the U.S., whether it's Q2 or Q4, that will bring like another 0.5 million ton more of soybean oil demand for the U.S. And don't forget that Brazil increased their mandate to B14, which represents another 0.5 million tons of soybean oil. So all in all, I think that all that oil demand and meal demand will be important to bring back crush margins to the higher part of the range at the end of the year.

我們持續看到強勁的豆粕需求，因為豆粕變得更便宜，在配方添加（inclusions）上更受青睞，特別是當我們看到家禽產業的獲利能力可能觸底時。因此這對我們的需求是利多。而且美國將有新的 RGD 工廠投產，不論是在第二季（Q2）或第四季（Q4），都將為美國帶來額外約 50 萬噸的豆油需求。別忘了巴西把掺混義務提高到 B14，這也代表額外約 50 萬噸的豆油需求。總體而言，我認為這些油品需求與豆粕需求，將在年底把壓榨利潤帶回到區間的較高端。

Our next question comes from Ben Bienvenu of Stephens Inc.

下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 Ben Bienvenu。

So I want to ask, in the Carbohydrate Solutions segment, you point to a pretty robust outlook for the remainder of the year for Starches and Sweeteners. In particular, you call out strong volumes. That's a bit of a recovery from what we saw last year. Can you talk about some of the dynamics that you're seeing around volume and the pace of recovery that you're seeing in volume that makes you call out this year?

我想問一下，在碳水化合物解決方案（Carbohydrate Solutions）部門，你們指出今年剩餘期間澱粉與甜味劑（Starches and Sweeteners）的展望相當強勁，特別提到出貨量很強。這相較於去年算是一種復甦。你能談談你們在出貨量方面看到的一些動態，以及你們看到的出貨量復甦速度，為什麼讓你們今年會這樣強調嗎？

Yes. I would say we've seen strong demand, I would say, I don't know, strong or solid demand across all our segments. Margins have been good. We continue to get a lift on margins by the reduction in chemicals, the reduction in energy prices, a little bit better operations of our facilities.

是的。我會說我們看到強勁的需求——我不知道該說強勁還是穩健——但確實在我們所有業務板塊都呈現穩健需求。利潤率表現良好。我們也持續受惠於化學品成本下降、能源價格下降，以及我們工廠營運效率稍微提升，從而帶動利潤率上升。

And I would say the main difference may be versus last year was last year, we have exceptional margins in international milling and also in the corn business in Europe. Those have moderated a little bit. But still, the business remained very strong. So I would say all the Sweeteners and Starches contract for the year, we're pleased with it. And we expect strong exports to Mexico, other countries pulling well. So I would say we feel strongly about having a Q2 that's going to be better than last year.

我會說，與去年相比最大的差異可能在於：去年我們在國際製粉（international milling）以及歐洲玉米業務上有非常突出的利潤率，那些現在稍微回落了一些。但即便如此，業務仍然非常強勁。所以我會說，我們對今年甜味劑與澱粉的年度合約很滿意。我們也預期對墨西哥的出口會很強，其他國家的拉貨也很不錯。因此我會說，我們對第二季（Q2）將比去年更好這件事很有信心。

So all in all, the uncertainty continues to stay on the ethanol side, in which we are cautiously optimistic that the maintenance seasons will balance inventories, if you will, and lift a little bit of margins there. But for the rest of the business, the rest of the business is operating very solidly.

總體而言，不確定性仍然主要在乙醇端。我們審慎樂觀地認為，維修季（maintenance seasons）將能平衡庫存，並在某種程度上帶動那邊的利潤率小幅回升。但就其他業務而言，其餘業務運作都非常穩健。

Our next question comes from Tom Palmer of Citi.

下一個問題來自 Citi 的 Tom Palmer。

I wanted to maybe dive in a little more on refined products. You noted lower biodiesel margin expectation for the year and then in prepared remarks, some pressure from imported used cooking oil. I guess what are you seeing on more of a regional basis when we think about those refined spreads? Is this more pressured in U.S. than other places? And then you did have some timing gains a year ago. We saw a bit of an unwind in 1Q. Just any help on the expected progression of those as we move through 2024.

我想更深入談一下精煉產品（refined products）。你們提到今年生質柴油（biodiesel）利潤率預期較低，並且在事先準備的發言中提到進口廢食用油（used cooking oil）帶來一些壓力。我想問的是，當我們從區域角度來看這些精煉價差（refined spreads）時，你們看到了什麼？這種壓力在美國是否比其他地區更大？另外，你們去年有一些時點性收益（timing gains），我們在第一季（1Q）看到有些回吐。能否協助說明一下，隨著我們進入 2024 年，這些項目的預期走勢會是如何？

Yes. So let me deconstruct a little bit the RPO part. The difference in Q1, so results were lower significantly than last year, where we had a record year. Main reason for that is North America, as you described, the imports of used cooking oil negatively impacted North America refining margins.

是的。讓我稍微拆解一下 RPO 的部分。第一季（Q1）的差異在於：我們的結果顯著低於去年，而去年是創紀錄的一年。主要原因如你所說，在北美，進口廢食用油對北美精煉利潤率造成了負面影響。

Actually, in EMEA, our results were higher. We executed on the strong biodiesel margins. And I would say refining there is in line with the prior year, as I would say we had additional volumes that offset a little bit lower refining premiums. South American results in biodiesel and packages, margins are stronger in the current year, supported by the, as I said, the increase in biodiesel mandate. That's 0.5 million tons per year of new demand that really impacted that.

其實在 EMEA，我們的結果更高。我們把握了強勁的生質柴油利潤率。我會說那邊的精煉表現與前一年大致一致；我們有額外的出貨量，在一定程度上抵消了較低的精煉溢價。南美方面，生質柴油與包裝（packages）的利潤率在今年更強，主要受惠於——如我所說——生質柴油掺混義務的提高。這相當於每年新增 50 萬噸的需求，確實對此產生了影響。

So overall, I think the dynamic will be similar for second quarter, in which you will see refining margins lower in North America and crush margins and refining margins a little bit better in South America.

所以整體而言，我認為第二季的動態會類似：你會看到北美的精煉利潤率較低，而南美的壓榨利潤率與精煉利潤率會稍微好一些。

And just any help on the timing unwind?

那關於時點性回吐（timing unwind）方面，能否再提供一些說明？

Yes. Year-over-year, there was $72 million negative of net timing impacts in Q1. So we had a negative mark-to-market this quarter of $30 million versus the previous year, where we had a positive of $42 million. So that's the arithmetic, if you will, of that.

可以。以年對年來看，第一季（Q1）淨時點性影響為負 7,200 萬美元。因此本季我們的按市價計價（mark-to-market）為負 3,000 萬美元；相較之下，去年同期為正 4,200 萬美元。所以如果你要算的話，這就是其中的算術差異。

Our next question comes from Manav Gupta of UBS.

下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Manav Gupta。

My only question is, can you provide the path to the full restart of the Decatur East plant? Like where are we in the restart regulatory or construction, if you could help us out with that?

我只有一個問題：你們能否說明 Decatur East 工廠全面重啟的路徑？例如目前在重啟的監管或施工進度上處於什麼階段？如果可以的話，請協助我們了解一下。

Yes, Manav. Listen, there is a lot of activity going on there. But as we have said, I think this is something we -- Nutrition is going to carry as a headwind during the whole year. We expect that, that plant reasonably to be operating in Q4. I cannot provide any more details or granularity on that as we're going through all the projects.

是的，Manav。聽著，那邊有很多工作正在進行。但正如我們所說，我認為這件事——營養（Nutrition）業務在整個年度都會承受逆風。我們預期該工廠合理來說會在第四季（Q4）運轉。我無法在我們推進所有專案的過程中，提供更多細節或更細的拆解。

But I would say, as soon as we have more specifics, we will be updating all you guys on that. But at this point in time, I think you need to think that the headwinds for Nutrition in Specialty Ingredients, and a lot of that driven by this will carry through the year.

但我會說，一旦我們有更明確的資訊，我們會向各位更新。不過就目前而言，你需要把營養業務在特殊成分（Specialty Ingredients）上的逆風——其中很大一部分由此驅動——視為會延續整個年度。

Our next question comes from Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research.

下一個問題來自 Heather Jones Research 的 Heather Jones。

Just hoping you could help me. I just want to discuss the crush margin outlook a little more, specifically on the soy side. So thank you for the cadence information you provided earlier, but I just wanted to dig in a little bit more.

希望你能幫我一下。我想再多討論一下壓榨利潤展望，特別是大豆這一端。所以謝謝你先前提供的節奏（cadence）資訊，但我想再深入一點。

So at present, the curve for the U.S. has margins below the range. And then on a cash basis, in certain regions, they're materially below that 35. So when I think about the rest of the year, are you all assuming that regions like Brazil and Europe are going to provide a material uplift to offset the U.S.? Or is it you think the increased soybean oil demand, et cetera, will make U.S. margins materially better than the curve is indicating at present? So just was trying to think about how you all are thinking about that.

目前美國的遠期曲線（curve）顯示利潤率低於你們的區間；而且以現貨（cash）來看，在某些地區甚至明顯低於 35。當我思考今年剩餘時間時，你們是否假設像巴西和歐洲這些地區會提供實質性的上行來抵消美國？還是你們認為豆油需求增加等等因素，會讓美國利潤率明顯好於目前曲線所指示的水準？我只是想了解你們是如何思考這件事的。

Yes. Heather, good to hear from you. Listen, the way we're seeing it at the moment, so North America, as we said, Q2 and probably Q3 will move to the lower part of the range. Then as we come through the year and we get more beans here in the U.S. and we get more renewable green diesel volume coming from probably 1 billion gallon more of capacity that's coming, we think that, that and inclusion rates will drive Q4 higher.

是的，Heather，很高興聽到你的聲音。聽著，我們目前的看法是：北美如我們所說，第二季（Q2）以及可能第三季（Q3）會走向區間的低端。接著隨著年度推進，當美國這邊有更多大豆供應，以及更多可再生綠色柴油（renewable green diesel）產量——可能來自新增約 10 億加侖的產能——我們認為這些因素加上配方添加比例（inclusion rates），將推動第四季（Q4）走高。

In the Q2, Q3 area, if you will, we see right now, crush margins in Brazil have gotten better across all our plants, not only the domestic ones, but also the export ones. So as the farmer has been selling a little bit more, as you get more through the harvest there in Latin America, farmers start to move a little bit more volume. In Brazil, it was helped by the devaluation. So we saw that easing the pressure that we have in getting beans and helping crush margins.

在第二季、第三季那個區間（如果你這麼看），我們目前看到巴西的壓榨利潤在我們所有工廠都有所改善，不僅是內銷工廠，也包括出口工廠。因此，隨著農民多賣了一些、隨著拉丁美洲那邊收成推進，農民開始移動更多的量。在巴西，這也受到貨幣貶值的幫助。所以我們看到這緩解了我們在取得大豆上的壓力，並有助於提升壓榨利潤。

Europe, we expect it to be around $40 per ton, so it's a little bit in the middle of the pack. China, we don't have a lot of visibility in China, but it seems to be very spot in China at the moment. So it's a little bit hand to mouth over there.

歐洲方面，我們預期大約是每噸 40 美元，所以大概處於中間水準。中國方面，我們在中國沒有太多能見度，但目前看起來中國的情況非常偏即期（spot）。所以那邊有點是「手到口」（hand to mouth）的狀態。

So in general, as I said, we see for ADM, at least, a big correction going into the second quarter, also a soft third quarter, and then we start to see coming back up in the Q4. But mostly, the curve of the U.S., if you will, with a little bit moderation provided by the other areas.

所以整體而言，如我所說，至少就 ADM 來看，我們看到進入第二季會有一個較大的修正，第三季也偏疲弱，然後在第四季開始看到回升。但主要是美國的曲線（如果你這麼看），其他地區提供了一些溫和的調節。

Our next question comes from Salvator Tiano from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Salvator Tiano。

I wanted to ask a little bit about ethanol. And specifically, it seems like your commentary on ethanol was a little bit different between Starches and Sweeteners and VCP. It seems like you talked about lower ethanol margins in the former and better ethanol demand margins, et cetera, in VCP. So can you clarify why this, I guess, ethanol margins from the 2 different types of mills diverged? And also specifically, what are you seeing on the ethanol export front? And why is that benefiting VCP more than Starches and Sweeteners?

我想稍微問一下乙醇。具體來說，你們對乙醇的評論在澱粉與甜味劑（Starches and Sweeteners）以及 VCP 之間似乎有點不同。看起來你們在前者談到乙醇利潤較低，而在 VCP 則談到乙醇需求利潤更好等等。所以你能否釐清一下，為什麼我想，來自兩種不同類型工廠的乙醇利潤會出現分歧？另外，特別是在乙醇出口方面，你們看到了什麼？以及為什麼這對 VCP 的助益比對澱粉與甜味劑更大？

Yes. Yes, the reference we made to that is because VCP results were helped by stronger export demand for sustainably certified ethanol, and we get a premium for sustainably certified ethanol. So that supported volumes and margins.

是的。是的，我們提到那點是因為 VCP 的業績受益於對永續認證乙醇更強的出口需求，而我們對永續認證乙醇可以取得溢價。因此這支撐了銷量與利潤。

In general, ethanol -- in general, Salvator, ethanol is a very cheap oxygenate, so it's getting a lot of demand from the rest of the world. So exports are expected to be north of 1.5 billion gallons. So -- and blending demand inside the U.S. domestically has been good. It's just that this is the time of the year in which the plants have produced a lot.

整體來說，乙醇——整體來說，Salvator，乙醇是一種非常便宜的含氧添加劑（oxygenate），因此全球其他地區對它的需求很大。所以預期出口量將超過 15 億加侖。此外，美國國內的摻混需求一直不錯。只是每年這個時候工廠產量會很高。

I always said the plants are exothermic. So in a time of cold temperature, they produce a lot, and that's a time where we drive the least. So now we're going into more the maintenance period of those plants. And I think that inventories for the industry will come a little -- we hope will come a little bit more into balance, and we expect that to higher driving miles during the summer to balance margins a little bit better. But we expect for the whole year to -- for exports to remain very healthy.

我一直說這些工廠是放熱的（exothermic）。所以在氣溫寒冷的時候，它們會生產很多，而那也是我們開車最少的時候。現在我們正進入這些工廠較多的維修期。我認為全產業的庫存會稍微——我們希望會稍微更趨於平衡；並且我們預期夏季行駛里程增加，能讓利潤的平衡狀況好一些。但我們預期全年——出口仍將維持非常健康。

Our next question comes from Ben Theurer of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊（Barclays）的 Ben Theurer。

Just wanted to follow up on some of the initiatives you're doing within the Nutrition business. And Juan, you talked about it at the beginning as it relates to like just simplification, portfolio optimization. So as you've looked through the assets and obviously, it's been volatile here and somewhat soft, obviously impacted by some of the onetime items.

我想追問一下你們在營養（Nutrition）業務內所做的一些舉措。Juan，你在一開始提到像是簡化、投資組合最佳化等。當你檢視這些資產時，顯然這段時間波動很大且有些疲弱，也明顯受到一些一次性項目的影響。

But as you think about Nutrition going forward and past some of the issues with the plant downtime, et cetera, how do you want to structure this business? Where do you want to take it to? What do you think is going to be the Nutrition, call it, maybe 2.0 version in 2 to 3 years' time? What's the contribution, animal, human? How should we think about this?

但當你思考營養業務未來、以及度過一些工廠停機等問題之後，你希望如何來架構這個業務？你希望把它帶到什麼方向？你認為 2 到 3 年後的營養業務（姑且稱之為 2.0 版本）會是什麼樣子？動物、人類的貢獻各是什麼？我們應該如何看待？

Yes. Good question. Listen, if you see the sequential improvement that we have had right now, is we're taking a lot of the one-offs we received last year or even in Q4 out of the picture, if you will. Some of them completely. Some of them, they're going to continue to improve as the business improve the reliability of our supply, if you will.

是的。好問題。聽著，如果你看我們目前的環比改善，主要是我們把去年、甚至第四季出現的許多一次性因素先從畫面中移除（如果你這麼看）。有些已經完全消失。有些則會隨著業務提升供應可靠性而持續改善。

I would say, in the short term, you need to be able to see through some of the headwinds that we will get in revenue because of the correction of raw materials. So there are some parts of the Nutrition business, what we call Specialty Ingredients, if you will, that were either related to proteins or emulsifiers. Those things tend to correct revenue because they are related to soy or corn at the end of the day, so they moderate.

我會說，短期內，你需要能穿透一些因原物料修正而在營收端出現的逆風。因此在營養業務中，有些我們稱為特用成分（Specialty Ingredients）的部分，可能與蛋白或乳化劑相關。這些項目往往會因為最終與黃豆或玉米相關而出現營收修正，因此會有所緩和。

And that business is a business that from a volume perspective, there is a reshuffle of the demand in terms of plant-based proteins. And there's a lot of exciting stuff that the industry is doing. Listen, there is a lot of emerging technologies, novel ingredients and new culinary techniques that will come to revitalize that demand over time, but that's a shift that we're going through and you're not going to see that in 2024.

而從量的角度來看，那塊業務在植物性蛋白的需求上正在重新洗牌。產業正在做很多令人振奮的事情。聽著，有很多新興技術、新型成分以及新的烹飪技術，會在時間推移中重新活化那個需求，但這是一個我們正在經歷的轉變，而你不會在 2024 年看到它。

But that's something that, long term, we still believe in that piece. Right now, in the present time, flavor, we continue to see strong demand for flavor, whether it's in North America or whether it's in Europe. To the extent that we can release our supply constraints, we will be able to capitalize more on that. And U.S. has been doing better, faster than maybe Europe, and we're correcting those things in Europe. But we feel strongly about that.

但長期來看，我們仍然相信那一塊。就當下而言，在風味（flavor）方面，我們持續看到強勁需求，不論是在北美或是在歐洲。只要我們能解除供應限制，我們就能更充分地把握這個機會。美國的改善速度可能比歐洲更快，而我們也正在歐洲修正這些問題。但我們對此很有信心。

On the Health & Wellness perspective, biotics continue to excel. Biotics have increased OP by like 100% in the first quarter. So we're doing very well. We're getting some headwinds from the fibers perspective, but I think that's a matter of competitive materials. But over time, fibers is a very -- has a very positive prognosis as all of us are trying to incorporate more protein and fibers in our diet and reduce fats and sugar. That's where the world nutrition trends are moving.

從健康與保健（Health & Wellness）的角度來看，益生菌等生物菌（biotics）持續表現出色。第一季 biotics 的營業利潤（OP）增加了大約 100%。所以我們做得非常好。纖維（fibers）方面我們遇到一些逆風，但我認為那是競爭性原料的問題。不過長期來看，纖維的前景非常——非常正向，因為我們都在嘗試在飲食中加入更多蛋白與纖維，並降低脂肪與糖分。這就是全球營養趨勢的方向。

And then when you think about the Animal Nutrition side, Animal Nutrition is probably the most undervalued, if you will, story given their potential. Because we are doing a lot of self-help, and that self-help continue to be seen in the P&L. But some of the protein sector issues have impacted the demand there. I would say there in Nutrition -- in the Animal Nutrition area is where we're probably going to see more of the refinement of the portfolio, if you will, just because there are unevenness across sectors in terms of our ability to achieve the right returns on the long term. So in some part of the sectors, it's more like self-help. In other parts, it's more innovation driven.

接著談到動物營養（Animal Nutrition）端，動物營養可能是最被低估的——如果你這麼說——故事，考量到它的潛力。因為我們正在做很多自助改善（self-help），而這些自助改善持續反映在損益表（P&L）上。但蛋白產業的一些問題影響了那邊的需求。我會說，在營養——在動物營養領域，我們可能會看到更多投資組合的精煉（refinement），如果你這麼看，主要是因為各個子產業在我們長期達成適當報酬的能力上並不均衡。所以在某些子產業，更像是自助改善；在其他子產業，則更偏向創新驅動。

And even if you go to things like pet, where the demand is very strong, there are pieces of the world that are doing exceptionally well for us like Mexico. There are pieces where demand is very strong, like in North America, so maybe we need to fix some supply issues. And there are parts of the world, like maybe like South America, where structurally it becomes a little bit more difficult to make money. So we are applying different recipes to the different parts of the world.

即使你看像是寵物（pet）這類需求非常強的領域，世界上有些地區對我們來說表現特別好，例如墨西哥。有些地區需求非常強，例如北美，所以也許我們需要解決一些供應問題。而世界上也有些地區，例如南美，從結構上來看要賺錢會變得更困難一些。因此我們對世界不同地區採用不同的配方（recipes）。

But I still see a very complete Nutrition business, if you will, going forward, more focus on the maybe fewer platforms, fewer customers to be able to execute our pipeline faster. Maybe in the past, we have a big pipeline with a percentage of conversion that we expect it to be higher on a maybe a more focused, concentrated pipeline. That's the way I tend to think about it.

但展望未來，我仍然看到一個非常完整的營養業務（如果你這麼看），會更聚焦在可能更少的平台、更少的客戶，以便更快地執行我們的產品管線。也許過去我們有一個很大的管線，而我們希望在一個更聚焦、更集中的管線上，轉化率能更高。我大致是這樣思考的。

Can I offer a complementary view on -- I just wanted to offer you a complementary view on Juan's comments with regard to Animal Nutrition, but I think it also applies to the broader portfolio, which is I fully agree with Juan in the sense that the base business in Animal Nutrition is now experiencing the benefits of the cost improvement programs that we put in place, and we've seen that evolution quarter-on-quarter.

我可以提供一個補充觀點——我只是想就 Juan 對於動物營養（Animal Nutrition）的評論提供一個補充觀點，但我認為這也適用於更廣泛的產品組合。也就是說，我完全同意 Juan 的看法：動物營養的基礎業務現在正體現我們所推動的成本改善計畫所帶來的效益，而且我們也看到這種演進在各季度之間持續發生。

But to Juan's observations on a going-forward basis, you will see a business that is looking to become more focused on the specialty side of its portfolio. As Juan alluded to at the beginning, part of the revenue calculation for the platform is partly impacted by the fact that there is a soy meal commodity component to some of the products that are produced. Over time, it's a business that will evolve to become more specialty focused, more higher margin focused. So we -- I think it bodes well for the growth and margin structure of that business as we look forward into 2025.

但就 Juan 對未來的觀察而言，你會看到這項業務正尋求在其產品組合中更聚焦於特種（specialty）領域。正如 Juan 在一開始提到的，該平台的營收計算部分受到某些所生產產品中含有豆粕（soy meal）大宗商品成分的影響。隨著時間推移，這項業務將演進為更聚焦特種、更聚焦高毛利。因此我們——我認為，當我們展望 2025 年時，這對該業務的成長與利潤率結構是個好兆頭。

Our next question comes from Steven Haynes of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的 Steven Haynes。

Maybe just two quick follow-ups on Nutrition. So I think your revenue was down slightly. And based on your kind of prior comments about there being some price component, were your volumes, I guess, organic volumes, positive in the quarter? That would be the first one.

也許就營養（Nutrition）再追問兩個簡短問題。我想你們的營收略有下降。根據你們先前提到有一些價格因素，那麼本季你們的銷量——我猜是有機銷量（organic volumes）——是否為正成長？這是第一個問題。

And then the second question is on the full year, you mentioned that the recent M&A is kind of coming in ahead of your kind of deal model expectations. How much operating profit contribution are you baking into the full year guide from M&A?

第二個問題是關於全年：你提到近期的併購（M&A）表現有點超出你們交易模型（deal model）的預期。你們在全年指引中，從併購納入了多少營業利益（operating profit）的貢獻？

Yes. Thank you, Steven. So let me say that we are very pleased with the 2 M&As. The 2 M&As contributed to revenue in the first quarter and not yet to OP because of start-up costs and all that. But we still expect revenue, even despite the headwinds that I mentioned before relative to commodity prices, moderating in some of our less specialty categories.

是的，謝謝你，Steven。先說我們對這兩筆併購非常滿意。這兩筆併購在第一季對營收有貢獻，但由於啟動成本等因素，尚未對營業利益（OP）有貢獻。不過，即便如我先前提到的、相對於大宗商品價格的逆風，以及我們部分較非特種類別的趨勢趨於溫和，我們仍預期營收表現。

We expect revenue growth to be in the range of high -- mid-single digit for full year. We expect probably OP to do -- operating profit to be a little bit better than that given that our cost should be down year-over-year. So what was the other question there?

我們預期全年營收成長將落在中個位數偏高（high-- mid-single digit）的區間。我們預期營業利益（OP）——營業利益的表現可能會比這個更好一些，因為我們的成本應該會較去年同期下降。所以剛才另一個問題是什麼？

Yes. So in terms of overall volume, volume was a complementary question. Overall, we've seen volume hold up well. The exception to that would be, obviously, the Specialty Ingredients business and specifically, the impacts of the Decatur East plant. But all of the other elements of our business have generally performed well volume-wise. So you've seen a bit of a deterioration of the volume on a revenue basis, but you have seen a general improvement except for the SI business when it came to volume.

是的。就整體銷量而言，這是關於銷量的補充問題。整體來看，我們看到銷量維持得不錯。例外當然是特種成分（Specialty Ingredients, SI）業務，尤其是 Decatur East 工廠的影響。但我們業務的其他部分在銷量表現上普遍都不錯。因此你在營收層面看到銷量有些惡化，但在銷量方面，除了 SI 業務之外，你確實看到整體有所改善。

Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 Adam Samuelson。

So I guess I got two questions. Maybe first, as we think about the outlook for the year where you talked about improvement in soy meal demand and inclusion ratios later in the year, can you maybe help us be a bit more specific? Just that doesn't seem to you as implied by the curves. Most forecasts on poultry supply in different parts of the world don't really project a sizable uptick in production. So could you just help us a little bit on the areas where you're actually seeing that or getting that signal from your feed customers?

我想我有兩個問題。第一個，當我們思考你們對今年展望時，你提到今年稍晚豆粕需求與添加比例（inclusion ratios）會改善，你能否更具體一點？因為從曲線所隱含的訊息來看似乎不是這樣。多數對全球不同地區家禽供給的預測，並沒有顯示產量會有顯著上升。所以你能否多談一些，你們實際在哪些領域看到這種情況，或是從你們的飼料客戶那裡得到這樣的訊號？

And then an unrelated question, as I think about some of the cost actions and productivity savings that you've targeted for this year and next. Would love if you could maybe a bit more specificity to the areas where the $500 million are really coming from, both in terms of the category of spend, but also whether they're in the operating segments or in corporate unallocated as we think about the outlook for the next couple of years.

第二個是不相關的問題：當我想到你們今年與明年所鎖定的一些成本行動與生產力節省，我希望你們能更具體說明這 5 億美元主要來自哪些領域——包括支出類別（category of spend），以及從未來幾年的展望來看，這些節省是在營運部門（operating segments）還是在公司未分攤（corporate unallocated）。

Yes, sure. Adam, listen, I think what you need to realize, so first of all, we are early in the year, of course, and we are making predictions on Q4. So this is a transition period for the industry, if you will. We're going from a couple of years of tight supplies to ample supplies. So we're seeing here a customer base that is very uncovered, if you will, farmer selling that is a little slow. And we're going to go through that transition.

好的，當然。Adam，聽著，我想你需要理解的是：首先，我們當然還在年初，我們是在對第四季（Q4）做預測。所以這對產業而言是一個過渡期。可以說，我們正從過去幾年供給緊俏走向供給充裕。因此我們看到客戶端的覆蓋度很低（very uncovered），如果你願意這麼說；農民的銷售節奏也有點慢。我們將會經歷這個轉換。

On top of that, you have a proteins industry that was in the unprofitable territory, if you will, and still is for certain for, if you will, beef or some parts of pork. But now it seemed to have bottomed and seeing growth trends in poultry. So we see that in different parts of the world, whether it's in Thailand, in Turkey, in other parts of the world.

此外，你還有一個蛋白質（proteins）產業，先前處於虧損區間（unprofitable territory），某些領域現在仍是如此——例如牛肉，或豬肉的某些部分。但現在看起來已經觸底，並在家禽（poultry）上看到成長趨勢。我們在世界不同地區都看到這點，無論是泰國、土耳其，或其他地區。

But I think the main issue is that pricing is doing its effect. So you see some trade flows changing. We see some soybean oil being exported out of the U.S., as we see used cooking oil coming into the U.S. We're starting to see more -- maybe Brazil becoming less of an exporter of soybean oil, maybe more competition in meal, but the U.S. is still very competitive in meal.

但我認為主要問題是價格正在發揮作用。因此你會看到一些貿易流向正在改變。我們看到部分大豆油（soybean oil）從美國出口，同時也看到廢食用油（used cooking oil）進入美國。我們開始看到更多——也許巴西逐漸不再是大豆油的出口國；在豆粕（meal）方面競爭可能更激烈，但美國在豆粕上仍然非常具競爭力。

So I think that we will have to see all that shift during the year. What we are seeing is we're looking at our customers, we're looking at our book. And we just think that, again, with 1 billion gallon more of RGD capacity in the U.S. with 500,000 tons more soybean oil coming from the biodiesel mandate in Brazil, that will be a very big determinant of crush margins for the year. With that, I think Ismael will cover the drive for excellence profitability.

所以我認為，我們必須在今年內觀察這些變化如何轉移。我們正在看我們的客戶、看我們的訂單簿（book）。我們只是認為，再次強調，隨著美國新增 10 億加侖的 RGD 產能，以及巴西因生質柴油（biodiesel）強制令而新增 50 萬噸的大豆油供給，這將會是今年壓榨利差（crush margins）的非常重要決定因素。關於卓越驅動（drive for excellence）的獲利改善，我想 Ismael 會說明。

Yes. But on the -- Adam, on the drive for excellence, we're actually quite encouraged by the progress. As Juan mentioned during the remarks, we have more than 1,200 initiatives, but they can be grouped into substantial areas or themes of effort and focus, working on plant process optimization, working on business process optimization, also very important on supply chain and demand fulfillment, which is part of the challenges that we've had in Nutrition. So these would be the large buckets that we're working on.

是的。不過，Adam，關於卓越驅動（drive for excellence），我們其實對進展相當受到鼓舞。正如 Juan 在談話中提到的，我們有超過 1,200 項倡議，但它們可以歸納為幾個重要領域或努力主題與聚焦方向：包括工廠製程最佳化、業務流程最佳化；另外非常重要的是供應鏈與需求履約（demand fulfillment），這也是我們在營養（Nutrition）業務中面臨部分挑戰的原因。因此，這些就是我們正在推動的主要大項。

And we've seen the platform progress very well. And we have at least about 1/3 line of sight of the $500 million already for 2024. So we're very encouraged about the ability of this drive for excellence impacting 2024 already in the measures that I've just outlined.

我們看到這個平台進展非常順利。就 2024 年而言，我們對 5 億美元目標至少已經有大約三分之一具備可視性（line of sight）。因此，我們對這項卓越驅動在我剛才概述的衡量面向上，已能在 2024 年產生影響的能力感到非常鼓舞。

Our next question comes from Ben Kallo of Baird.

下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ben Kallo。

Just how do we think about or you think about the dynamic of the blenders tax credit changing over to a producers tax credit and the carbon intensity being a factor for overall soy oil demand in the U.S. next year?

我們該如何看待——或你們如何看待——調和商（blenders）稅收抵免轉為生產者（producers）稅收抵免的變化動態，以及碳強度（carbon intensity）作為因素，對明年美國整體大豆油需求的影響？

Yes. Thank you, Ben, for the question. So as you know, the $1 blenders tax credit will expire at the end of '24 and transition to a production tax credit. And this will be administered by the U.S. Treasury. They issued guidance on, I think, at the end of last year that will allow the use of GREET, LCA modeling in addition to CORSIA. Of course, we favor including GREET. We're successful in GREET being officially included. We're still delayed in the EPA ruling on that.

是的，謝謝你，Ben 的問題。如你所知，每加侖 1 美元的調和商稅收抵免（$1 blenders tax credit）將在 2024 年底到期，並轉換為生產稅收抵免（production tax credit）。這將由美國財政部（U.S. Treasury）管理。他們在去年底左右發布了指引，我認為該指引將允許使用 GREET、LCA 建模，並可與 CORSIA 並用。當然，我們支持納入 GREET。我們已成功讓 GREET 正式被納入，但在 EPA 對此的裁定上仍有延遲。

So I think that we have been doing a lot of advocacy in encouraging government officials to make sure that we remove this uncertainty out of the equation here. I think that a transition without guidance of whether the crop-based biofuels will generate credits will create a very difficult price discovery mechanism in the coming months, as participants are trying to look -- to begin locking 2025 volume.

因此，我認為我們一直在做大量倡議工作，鼓勵政府官員確保把這種不確定性從方程式中移除。我認為，如果在轉換時沒有指引說明以作物為基礎的生質燃料（crop-based biofuels）是否會產生抵免，將在未來幾個月造成非常困難的價格發現機制（price discovery mechanism），因為市場參與者正試圖——開始鎖定 2025 年的量。

So I think that's an important clarification that needs to happen. These are industries that are investing in the U.S., and I think that providing regulatory certainty are very important for those investments to come to fruition on time and as expected.

所以我認為這是一個需要釐清的重要事項。這些產業正在美國投資，而我認為提供法規確定性（regulatory certainty）對於讓這些投資能按時並如預期落地非常重要。

Just a follow-up there. What are you seeing with the renewable diesel refiners, producers in terms of them transitioning to using waste fats or other materials?

再追問一下。就可再生柴油的煉製商、製造商而言，您看到他們在轉向使用廢棄油脂或其他材料方面的情況如何？

Yes. I think that -- listen, there is a reality in the world that palm oil production is flat and not being able to cope with demand. So we know that the U.S. and renewable green diesel was going to meet -- to have to be met with a lot of feedstocks, of which soybean oil is an important component. But of course, the industry is trying to gather every kind of feedstock that they can find. And there was inventory of used cook oil.

是的。我認為——聽著，世界上有一個現實是，棕櫚油產量持平，無法應付需求。所以我們知道，美國以及可再生綠色柴油將要滿足——將不得不依賴大量原料，其中大豆油是一個重要組成部分。但當然，產業正試圖蒐集他們能找到的各種原料。而且市場上也有廢食用油的庫存。

The U.S. has imported a lot of that, but still is not going to be enough because how much are you going to grow the used cook oil inventory around the world to supply, as I said, an industry is going to have 1 billion gallon more capacity this year. So we still expect that we are adjusting to these temporary imports of used cook oil. But we still expect that soybean oil will recover their percentage of the used from maybe 30% to again, the 40% we used to be.

美國進口了很多這類原料，但仍然不會足夠，因為你要在全球把廢食用油的庫存增加到什麼程度，才能供應——如我所說——一個今年將新增10億加侖產能的產業。因此，我們仍預期我們正在調整以因應這些暫時性的廢食用油進口。但我們仍預期大豆油將恢復其使用占比，從可能的30%回到我們過去的40%。

Our next question comes from Salvator Tiano of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的Salvator Tiano。

I just had a follow-up. So as we look a little bit into a couple of items, can you help us understand the Green Bison contribution now? So for example, the process volume growth that you showed, roughly how much came from that? And also, I believe you had the $10 million noncontrolling interest loss. Well, I guess, the JV, among others, are the loss. So how much, I guess, of that was the Green Bison JV? And at which point do you expect it to return -- to turn into a profitable JV on a net income basis, so for that NCI line?

我還有一個追問。當我們再深入看幾個項目時，能否幫我們理解一下Green Bison目前的貢獻？例如，你們展示的加工量成長，大約有多少是來自它？另外，我相信你們有1,000萬美元的非控股權益（NCI）損失。我想，合資企業（JV）等項目造成了這個損失。所以其中大約有多少是Green Bison這個JV造成的？以及你們預期它何時會回到——在淨利基礎上轉為獲利的JV，也就是在那條NCI科目上？

Yes. Salvator, maybe I give you what I have at top of my mind. But we were very pleased with the increase in volumes in oilseeds or in crush during the first quarter. It was 9% increase. Part of that was Spiritwood coming online, part of that were our plants improvements in general across the footprint. Part of that was Paraguay and Ukraine also coming to crush. So that all happened at different points in the quarter. So I don't have a full recollection of what happened to what volume at any part of the quarter.

是的。Salvator，我先就我腦中目前想到的回答你。不過我們對第一季油籽或壓榨量的增加非常滿意，成長了9%。其中一部分來自Spiritwood投產，一部分來自我們整體版圖內各工廠的改善；另外一部分也來自巴拉圭與烏克蘭開始進行壓榨。這些都在該季不同時間點發生，所以我無法完整回想在季度的任何時間點，各自對應了多少量。

The Green Bison joint venture will be a contributor to profit during 2024. So it's ramping up. It's going to get to full capacity very soon. So it will be a meaningful contributor. I don't have top of my head what was the contribution on first quarter, to be honest.

Green Bison合資企業將在2024年對獲利做出貢獻。它正在爬坡提升產能，很快就會達到滿載。因此它會是有意義的貢獻者。老實說，我一時想不起第一季的貢獻是多少。

Our next question comes from Heather Jones of Heather Jones Research.

下一個問題來自Heather Jones Research的Heather Jones。

Just wanted to ask really quickly what exactly you're doing for the dry mills as far as sustainability sourcing? And the doubling of your region acreage, is that related to like proactively getting ahead of this EU deforestation regime or more stringent carb requirements? Just wondering what's driving that.

我想很快問一下，就永續來源（sustainability sourcing）而言，你們在乾磨廠（dry mills）具體在做什麼？另外，你們把區域耕作面積加倍，這是否與主動提前因應歐盟的反毀林法規，或更嚴格的碳要求有關？想了解背後的驅動因素。

Yes. So Heather, in carb solutions, we have a whole decarbonization strategy. Actually, across ADM, we have a decarbonization strategy, driven partly by our Strive 35 goals that we need to decarbonize ourselves, part driven by our customers and the need for either awaiting Scope 3 emissions from the side of our customers, but also by providing some low carbon intensity characteristics of some of our products that has also commanding a premium out there.

是的。Heather，在碳解決方案（carb solutions）方面，我們有一套完整的去碳化策略。其實在ADM整體，我們都有去碳化策略，部分由我們的Strive 35目標所驅動——我們需要讓自身去碳化；部分由客戶驅動，因為客戶端需要處理其範疇三（Scope 3）排放；同時也因為我們能提供部分產品較低碳強度的特性，而這在市場上也能帶來溢價。

So what are we doing? We are working on increasing our carbon capture sequestration. We're going to go from 2 wells, 1 well and 1 experimental well, but let's say 2 wells to 7 wells, so we're going to be able to increase significantly our capacity.

那我們在做什麼？我們正在提升碳捕集與封存（carbon capture sequestration）的能力。我們將從2口井——1口井加1口實驗井，但就算2口——提升到7口井，因此我們將能大幅提升產能。

And let me remind you, we have already captured 4.5 million tons of CO2 in the last 10 years that we've been operating. So that has been successful.

也提醒一下，過去10年我們持續營運以來，已經捕集了450萬噸二氧化碳（CO2）。所以這是成功的。

For the dry mills specifically, what we're doing is we are building pipelines to bring that to our carbon capture and sequestration units indicator. We have 1 pipeline that has been ongoing, the project, and we are looking for solutions for the other dry mills. So that's what is happening.

就乾磨廠而言，我們正在建置管線，把（排放）導入我們的碳捕集與封存單元。我們有1條管線專案正在進行中，並且也在為其他乾磨廠尋找解決方案。這就是目前的進展。

The second part of the question, Heather, I'm not remembering exactly what...

問題的第二部分，Heather，我不太記得你具體指的是什麼……

I was just wondering on the region.

我是在問區域（region）那部分。

Oh, yes.

喔，是的。

Yes, on the region acreage, just wondering, is that doubling in anticipation of like the EU deforestation regime or more stringent carb standards? Just wondering what's driving that. Or is it all voluntary market-driven growth?

是的，關於區域耕作面積，我想了解這個加倍是否是為了預先因應例如歐盟反毀林法規或更嚴格的碳標準？想知道驅動因素是什麼。或者這完全是自願市場需求帶動的成長？

Yes. I would say there is excitement on both sides. There is excitement on the farmer side to adhere to all these practices, but there's also a lot of demand pull from the customer side in terms of we continue to sign contracts for more of these as people need to, again, have an answer to their Scope 3.

是的。我會說兩邊都很振奮。農民端對遵循這些做法很有熱情；同時客戶端也有很強的需求拉動，因為我們持續簽訂更多這類合約，大家需要——再次強調——對其範疇三（Scope 3）有一個答案。

So this has been -- we have been setting goals, and we have been beating those goals and increasing those goals. Now we have expanded that to Europe and Latin America, and we continue to see demand for these activities around the world. And to be honest, the team has been doing an excellent job. So I think that this program is perceived as the leading program in the world there.

因此這一直是——我們一直在設定目標，而且我們一直超越這些目標，並提高這些目標。現在我們已將其擴展到歐洲與拉丁美洲，並且持續看到全球對這些活動的需求。老實說，團隊做得非常出色。所以我認為這個計畫被視為全球領先的計畫。

At this time, we currently have no further questions. So I'll hand back to Juan Luciano for any further remarks.

目前我們沒有其他問題了。接下來我把時間交回給Juan Luciano，請他做進一步的結語。

Okay. Thank you. Thank you, everybody, for joining us today and for your interest in ADM, and have a great day.

好的。謝謝。謝謝各位今天加入我們，也謝謝大家對ADM的關注，祝各位有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以掛斷線路。