Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the ADM third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加ADM 2025年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒各位，本次電話會議正在錄音。

I'd now like to introduce your host for today's call, Kate Walsh, Director, Investor Relations for ADM. Ms. Walsh, you may begin.

現在我謹向大家介紹今天電話會議的主持人，ADM 投資者關係總監 Kate Walsh。沃爾什女士，你可以開始了。

Welcome to the third quarter earnings conference call for ADM. Our prepared remarks today will be led by Juan Luciano, Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and Monish Patolawala, our EVP and Chief Financial Officer. We have prepared presentation slides to supplement our remarks on the call today, which are posted on the Investor Relations section of the ADM website and through the link to our webcast.

歡迎參加ADM第三季財報電話會議。今天，我們的演講將由董事會主席兼執行長胡安·盧西亞諾和執行副總裁兼財務長莫尼什·帕托拉瓦拉領銜。我們準備了演示文稿，以補充我們今天在電話會議上的發言，這些演示文稿已發佈在 ADM 網站的投資者關係部分，並通過我們的網絡直播鏈接發布。

Some of our comments and materials may constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.

我們的一些評論和資料可能構成前瞻性陳述，反映了管理層對未來經濟狀況、行業狀況、公司業績和財務結果的當前觀點和估計。這些聲明和材料基於許多假設和因素，而這些假設和因素存在許多風險和不確定性。

ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation and the materials. Unless otherwise required by law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements due to new information or future events.

ADM 已在其提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中提供了更多信息，這些信息涉及可能導致實際結果與本次演示和材料中的結果存在重大差異的假設和因素。除非法律另有規定，否則 ADM 不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

In addition, during today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings press release and presentation slides, which can be found in the Investor Relations section of the ADM website.

此外，在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及某些非GAAP或調整後的財務指標。這些非GAAP財務指標與最直接可比較的GAAP財務指標的調節表可在我們的獲利新聞稿和簡報中找到，這些文件可在ADM網站的投資者關係部分找到。

I will now turn the call over to Juan.

現在我將把通話轉給胡安。

Thank you, Kate. Hello, and welcome to all who have joined the call. Please turn to slide 4. Today, ADM reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.92 and total segment operating profit of $845 million for the third quarter. Our trailing fourth quarter adjusted ROIC was 6.7% and cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $2.1 billion year-to-date.

謝謝你，凱特。大家好，歡迎各位參加本次通話。請翻到第4張投影片。今天，ADM公佈了第三季調整後每股收益為0.92美元，部門總營業利潤為8.45億美元。我們上一季調整後的ROIC為6.7%，年初至今的營運資本變動前現金流為21億美元。

With a challenging industry-wide operating environment, we remain flexible, adapting plans where needed, taking action on what is in our control and investing for long-term growth. A key part of this dynamic environment relates to the status of highly anticipated US biofuel policy.

面對充滿挑戰的行業營運環境，我們保持靈活，根據需要調整計劃，對我們可控的因素採取行動，並為長期成長進行投資。這個動態環境的關鍵部分與備受矚目的美國生物燃料政策的現狀有關。

We believe progress on this front will drive significant biofuel and renewable diesel demand and lead to elevated pricing, volumes and margins across several of our key operating areas, which we expect will set up a constructive environment over the long run. But based on the current short-term environment, our AS&O business is significantly impacted.

我們相信，這方面的進展將推動生物燃料和再生柴油的顯著需求，並導致我們幾個主要營運領域的定價、銷售和利潤率上升，我們預計這將從長遠來看創造一個建設性的環境。但就目前的短期環境而言，我們的AS&O業務受到了顯著影響。

Against this backdrop, we have made good progress with our self-help agenda. We made strides in improving our plant efficiency. We've entered into numerous strategic transactions, which advance our portfolio optimization objectives, and we are accomplishing cost savings through several targeted streamlining initiatives.

在此背景下，我們的自助計劃取得了良好進展。我們在提高工廠效率方面取得了長足進步。我們已達成多項策略交易，以推進我們的投資組合優化目標，並透過多項有針對性的精簡措施實現成本節約。

These actions have generated robust cash flow this quarter and strengthen our business going forward. Our strong balance sheet, driven by a disciplined capital allocation process, gives us flexibility to invest for growth and continue to return value to shareholders. Following our second quarter earnings call, we announced our 375th consecutive quarterly dividend.

這些舉措在本季度帶來了強勁的現金流，並為我們未來的業務發展奠定了堅實的基礎。我們穩健的資產負債表，得益於嚴格的資本配置流程，使我們能夠靈活地進行成長投資，並持續為股東創造價值。在第二季財報電話會議之後，我們宣布了連續第375個季度派發股息。

Please turn to slide 5. Let me share some specific examples of how our team continues to drive simplification, optimization and execution excellence across our segments through our self-help agenda. For Ag Services and Oilseeds, results for the third quarter were sequentially in line and aligned to the expectations we set out in our second quarter earnings call. The team continued to focus on operational excellence, which was reflected in crush volumes increasing 2.6% sequentially and 2.2% compared to the third quarter of last year, albeit in a lower-than-expected margin environment.

請翻到第5張投影片。讓我分享一些具體的例子，說明我們的團隊如何透過自助計劃，不斷推動各個業務板塊的簡化、優化和卓越執行。對於農業服務和油籽業務而言，第三季的業績與第二季財報電話會議中提出的預期相符，並按順序進行了調整。團隊繼續專注於卓越運營，這體現在壓榨量環比增長 2.6%，與去年第三季度相比增長 2.2%，儘管利潤率低於預期。

Our Ag Services subsegment executed a robust export program during the quarter, supported by strong corn and meal programs. We achieved the best total export volume for the month of September since 2016, which helped offset some of the weakness we experienced in our crush business.

本季度，在強勁的玉米和玉米粉計畫的支持下，我們的農業服務子部門執行了一項強有力的出口計畫。我們9月份的總出口量創下了2016年以來的最高紀錄，這有助於抵消我們在壓榨業務方面遇到的一些疲軟局面。

For Carbohydrate Solutions, the business delivered sequentially steady results overall with lower global demand for sweeteners and starches, offset by strength in ethanol pricing and exports. We achieved a key milestone in our decarbonization strategy, connecting our Columbus, Nebraska dry corn milling plant into Tallgrass's Trailblazer CO2 pipeline and are commencing CO2 injections. This marks the second ADM facility that is reducing its carbon footprint by CO2 sequestration.

對於碳水化合物解決方案業務而言，儘管全球對甜味劑和澱粉的需求下降，但乙醇價格和出口的強勁表現抵消了這一影響，該業務整體業績保持穩定。我們在脫碳策略中取得了關鍵里程碑式的進展，將位於內布拉斯加州哥倫布市的乾玉米加工廠連接到 Tallgrass 的 Trailblazer CO2 管道，並開始注入 CO2。這是ADM公司第二家透過二氧化碳封存來減少碳足跡的工廠。

And for Nutrition, the team drove another quarter of sequential improvement, led by our Flavors and Animal Nutrition portfolios. Flavors North America achieved record quarterly revenue in the third quarter and Flavors internationally recently won a notable contract that is connected to a deep AS&O customer relationship. We're engaging directly with major customers of AS&O and Carbohydrate Solutions on our Nutrition portfolio, highlighting the power of our interconnected value chain.

在營養方面，團隊在香精香料和動物營養產品組合的帶動下，實現了另一個季度的環比成長。北美香料公司第三季實現了創紀錄的季度收入，而國際香料公司最近贏得了一份與AS&O客戶深厚關係密切的重要合約。我們正在與 AS&O 和 Carbohydrate Solutions 的主要客戶直接洽談我們的營養產品組合，以突顯我們相互關聯的價值鏈的力量。

Our Specialty Ingredients subsegment is expected to benefit from the Decatur East plant being back online and consistently producing white flake. During the quarter, we announced network simplification in Specialty Ingredients to streamline our production footprint, and we expect results to improve as this takes hold and we build back our third-party sales business.

我們的特種配料子部門預計將受益於迪凱特東部工廠恢復生產並持續生產白片。本季度，我們宣布簡化特種配料業務的網絡，以精簡我們的生產佈局，我們預計隨著這一舉措的實施和第三方銷售業務的重建，業績將會改善。

Within our Animal Nutrition portfolio, our turnaround continues to deliver better results with more progress to come. In Q3, we announced plans for a North American animal feed joint venture with Alltech to further transition our Animal Nutrition business into higher-margin Specialty Ingredients, and we expect this JV to commence operations in 2026.

在我們的動物營養產品組合中，我們的轉型升級持續取得更好的成果，未來也將取得更大的進展。第三季度，我們宣布了與 Alltech 成立北美動物飼料合資企業的計劃，以進一步將我們的動物營養業務轉型為利潤更高的特種配料業務，我們預計該合資企業將於 2026 年開始運營。

Through these efforts and several other initiatives we have undertaken this year, we remain on track to achieve our targeted $200 million to $300 million in cost savings in 2025 as well as our aggregate cost savings of $500 million to $750 million over the next three to five years.

透過這些努力以及我們今年採取的其他幾項舉措，我們仍有望在 2025 年實現 2 億至 3 億美元的成本節約目標，並在未來三到五年內實現 5 億至 7.5 億美元的總成本節約目標。

Strong cash management allows us to continue to invest in areas of innovation where we see attractive growth potential. For example, we are developing the next generation of flavor systems for our growing energy drinks portfolio. Our cutting-edge energy emulsion technology provides enhanced product stability, consistent quality and a simplified supply chain.

穩健的現金管理使我們能夠繼續投資於我們認為具有良好成長潛力的創新領域。例如，我們正在為不斷增長的能量飲料產品組合開發下一代風味系統。我們先進的能量乳化技術可提高產品穩定性，確保品質穩定，並簡化供應鏈。

Additionally, there is a strong demand momentum behind our natural colors portfolio, and we are exploring accretive opportunities to expand both products and geographies in this business. Another area of attractive growth for us is postbiotics, where ADM is investing in innovation.

此外，我們的天然色素產品組合擁有強勁的需求勢頭，我們正在探索增加產品種類和拓展地理範圍的加值機會。對我們來說，另一個有吸引力的成長領域是後生元，ADM 正在該領域進行創新投資。

Recently, we were honored with an innovation award at a global premier trade event for our proprietary postbiotic formulation designed to support human immunity and digestive wellness. We also launched our second pet-focused postbiotic. These are examples of the diverse in-house research and development expertise we've developed in the biotics space.

最近，我們憑藉著自主研發的益生元配方，在全球頂級貿易展會上榮獲創新獎，該配方旨在支持人體免疫力和消化健康。我們也推出了第二款針對寵物的後生元產品。這些都是我們公司在生技領域累積的多元化內部研發專業知識的例證。

We're also underway with advancing ethanol production performance improvements. Through close collaboration between R&D and operations, we've implemented advancements that are delivering improved yield gains. Rollout to additional plants is in progress and further enhancements are in testing designed to drive ongoing optimization across our facilities. We're also investing in side -stream valorization as part of our continuous efforts to optimize our production processes and add value to our byproducts.

我們目前也著手提升乙醇生產性能。透過研發和營運部門的緊密合作，我們實施了多項技術進步，從而提高了產量。目前正在向其他工廠推廣，並測試進一步的改進措施，旨在推動我們所有工廠的持續優化。我們也正在投資副產品增值，這是我們不斷優化生產流程、提高副產品價值的努力的一部分。

As we close out 2025, we will continue to action our self-help agenda while adapting to evolving trade policy and remaining flexible to offset the impact of challenging dynamics to the best of our ability. Given the deferral in US biofuel policy and other global movements, it is difficult to predict the timing of when we will see a structural increase in biofuel demand.

在 2025 年即將結束之際，我們將繼續推動自助議程，同時適應不斷變化的貿易政策，並保持靈活性，盡我們所能抵消充滿挑戰的動態帶來的影響。鑑於美國生物燃料政策和其他全球趨勢的推遲，很難預測何時才能看到生物燃料需求的結構性成長。

As a result, we are lowering our expectations for full year 2025. We now expect adjusted earnings per share to be between $3.25 to $3.50, down from the approximately $4 per share as we discussed last quarter. Monish will review this in more detail.

因此，我們下調了對 2025 年全年的預期。我們現在預計調整後的每股盈餘將在 3.25 美元至 3.50 美元之間，低於上個季度我們討論的每股約 4 美元。莫尼什將對此進行更詳細的審查。

Overall, the recent progress with the trade deal with China, coupled with our expectation of gaining US biofuel policy clarity within the next several weeks or months is an encouraging setup for next year. We expect 2026 will offer a more constructive environment for both the industry and the American farmer, and that should create both positive economic opportunities and drive additional long-term investment throughout our business and the agricultural sector.

總體而言，近期與中國的貿易協議取得的進展，加上我們預期在未來幾週或幾個月內美國生物燃料政策將更加明朗，這為明年創造了一個令人鼓舞的局面。我們預計 2026 年將為農業和美國農民提供更具建設性的環境，這將創造積極的經濟機會，並推動我們業務和農業部門的更多長期投資。

With that, let me hand it over to Monish to share a deeper dive into third quarter financial results and our full year 2025 outlook.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給莫尼什，讓他更深入分析第三季財務表現和我們 2025 年全年的展望。

Thank you, Juan. Please turn to slide 6. AS&O segment operating profit for the third quarter was $379 million, down 21% compared to the prior year quarter. The deferral of US biofuel policy and the evolving global trade landscape continued to impact demand for AS&O, primarily in our Crushing and Refined Products businesses.

謝謝你，胡安。請翻到第6張投影片。AS&O部門第三季營業利潤為3.79億美元，較上年同期下降21%。美國生物燃料政策的延遲和不斷變化的全球貿易格局繼續影響對AS&O的需求，主要影響到我們的破碎和精煉產品業務。

In the Ag Services subsegment, operating profit was $190 million, representing an increase of 78% compared to the prior year quarter. The increase was driven primarily by higher export activity in North America with support from our operations in South America. South America improved year-over-year as the prior year quarter was negatively impacted by higher costs related to logistics take-or-pay contracts. Additionally, there were net positive timing impacts of approximately $54 million year-over-year.

在農業服務子業務板塊，營業利潤為 1.9 億美元，比上年同期成長 78%。這一增長主要得益於北美地區出口活動的增加，以及我們在南美地區的業務發展。南美洲的情況比去年同期有所改善，因為去年同期因物流照付不議合約相關的成本上升而受到負面影響。此外，淨正向時間影響約為 5,400 萬美元（年比）。

In the Crushing subsegment, operating profit was $13 million, down 93% from the prior year quarter. Both global soybean and canola crush execution margins were significantly lower than the prior year quarter. Both soybean and canola crush margins were down most significantly in North America, driven by global trade evolution and reduced biofuel production. There were net positive timing impacts of approximately $41 million in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year quarter. Partially offsetting the net timing benefit year-over-year were insurance proceeds of $24 million in the prior year quarter.

在破碎業務子部門，營業利潤為 1,300 萬美元，比上年同期下降 93%。全球大豆和油菜籽壓榨執行利潤率均顯著低於去年同期。受全球貿易變化和生物燃料產量減少的影響，北美地區的大豆和油菜籽壓榨利潤率下降幅度最大。與去年同期相比，2025 年第三季淨收益約為 4,100 萬美元。部分抵銷同比淨時間優勢的是去年同期獲得的 2,400 萬美元保險賠償金。

In the Refined Products and Other subsegment, operating profit was $120 million, down 3% compared to the prior year quarter as positive timing impacts helped offset lower biodiesel and refining margins. There were net positive timing impacts of approximately $12 million year-over-year.

在精煉產品及其他子業務板塊，營業利潤為 1.2 億美元，較上年同期下降 3%，積極的時機影響抵消了生物柴油和煉油利潤率的下降。與上年同期相比，淨正向時間影響約為 1,200 萬美元。

Equity earnings from our investment in Wilmar were $56 million for the quarter, down 10% compared to the prior year quarter and excluding specified items. We typically record our share of Wilmar's financial results on a three-month lag basis with the exception of material transactions or events that occur during the intervening period that materially affect the financial position or results of operations. During the third quarter, we recorded a $163 million charge related to the penalty imposed on Wilmar by the Indonesian Supreme Court and for our AS&O segment, have presented this as a specified item.

本季度，我們從對豐益國際的投資中獲得的股權收益為 5,600 萬美元，與去年同期相比下降 10%，且未計入特定項目。我們通常以三個月滯後的方式記錄我們應佔 Wilmar 的財務業績份額，但中間期間發生的重大交易或事件除外，這些交易或事件會對財務狀況或經營業績產生重大影響。第三季度，我們計入了與印尼最高法院對豐益國際處以的罰款相關的 1.63 億美元費用，對於我們的 AS&O 業務部門，我們已將其列為特定項目。

Turning now to slide 7. For the third quarter, Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit was $336 million, down 26% compared to the prior year quarter. In the Starches and Sweeteners subsegment, operating profit was $293 million, down 36% compared to the prior year quarter, primarily due to a decline in global S&S demand, which impacted both volumes and margins. This is a continuation of consumer buying trends we have been experiencing throughout 2025 with softness in demand in sweeteners and a reduction in starches demand primarily from less consumption of packaged goods and corrugated paper.

現在請看第7張投影片。第三季度，碳水化合物解決方案部門的營業利潤為 3.36 億美元，比去年同期下降 26%。在澱粉和甜味劑子業務板塊，營業利潤為 2.93 億美元，比去年同期下降 36%，主要原因是全球澱粉和甜味劑需求下降，這影響了銷售和利潤率。這是我們在 2025 年一直經歷的消費者購買趨勢的延續，甜味劑需求疲軟，澱粉需求減少，主要是由於包裝食品和瓦楞紙的消費量減少。

Additionally, in EMEA, S&S volumes and margins continue to be impacted by persistent high corn costs related to crop quality issues we discussed in the last quarter. Global wheat milling margins and volumes were fairly stable in the third quarter relative to the prior year quarter. Additionally, the prior year quarter benefited from approximately $45 million of insurance proceeds.

此外，在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，由於我們在上個季度討論過的作物品質問題導致玉米成本持續高企，銷售和銷售的銷售和利潤率持續受到影響。與去年同期相比，第三季全球小麥加工利潤率和產量相當穩定。此外，去年同期還獲得了約 4,500 萬美元的保險賠償金。

In the Vantage Corn Processor subsegment, operating profit was $43 million, up from a $3 million loss in the prior year quarter, driven by strong export activity, coupled with industry downtime for scheduled maintenance, decreased ethanol inventory stocks and strengthened pricing. Overall, ethanol EBITDA margins per gallon for the quarter were approximately double and the volumes were roughly flat compared to the prior year quarter.

在 Vantage 玉米加工商子業務板塊，營業利潤為 4,300 萬美元，而去年同期虧損 300 萬美元，這主要得益於強勁的出口活動，以及行業因計劃維護而停工、乙醇庫存減少和價格走強。總體而言，本季每加侖乙醇的 EBITDA 利潤率約為去年同期的兩倍，而銷量與去年同期基本持平。

Now turning to slide 8. In the third quarter, Nutrition segment revenues were $1.9 billion, up 5% compared to the prior year quarter, including foreign exchange gains that accounted for approximately 2% of the increase. Human Nutrition revenue increased by 6% and the Animal Nutrition revenue increased by 3% compared to the prior year quarter.

現在請看第8張投影片。第三季度，營養品業務收入為 19 億美元，比上年同期成長 5%，其中包括外匯收益，約佔成長的 2%。與去年同期相比，人類營養品收入成長了 6%，動物營養品收入成長了 3%。

Foreign exchange gains accounted for approximately 2% of the increase in Human Nutrition revenue and approximately 1% of the increase in Animal Nutrition revenue. Nutrition segment operating profit was $130 million for the third quarter, up 24% compared to the prior year quarter. Human Nutrition operating profit was $96 million, up 12% compared to the prior year quarter as a result of strong Flavors growth and an uptick in biotics demand.

外匯收益約佔人類營養收入成長的 2%，約佔動物營養收入成長的 1%。第三季營養品業務部門營業利潤為 1.3 億美元，較上年同期成長 24%。由於香精業務的強勁成長和益生菌需求的上升，人類營養業務的營業利潤為 9,600 萬美元，比上年同期成長 12%。

The third quarter of 2024 also benefited from approximately $25 million of insurance proceeds as compared to $10 million in the third quarter of 2025. Animal Nutrition operating profit was $34 million for the quarter, up 79% compared to the prior year quarter as a result of the combination of an increased focus on higher-margin product lines, disciplined cost control and progress with ongoing portfolio streamlining initiatives.

2024 年第三季也受惠於約 2,500 萬美元的保險賠償金，而 2025 年第三季則為 1,000 萬美元。由於更加重視高利潤產品線、嚴格的成本控制以及持續的產品組合精簡計劃取得進展，動物營養業務本季營業利潤為 3,400 萬美元，比上年同期增長 79%。

Turning now to slide 9. The strength of the ADM model is that we generate strong cash flow through multiple commodity cycles. For the first nine months of the year, ADM generated cash flow from operations before working capital of approximately $2.1 billion, down by $254 million relative to the prior year quarter as a result of lower overall total segment operating profit.

現在翻到第9張投影片。ADM 模式的優點在於，我們能夠透過多個商品週期產生強勁的現金流。今年前九個月，ADM 的經營活動產生的現金流（扣除營運資本前）約為 21 億美元，較上年同期減少 2.54 億美元，因為整體部門營業利潤下降。

We continue to maintain a solid cash position and have made good progress in improving our working capital efficiency. For example, we reduced inventory by $3.2 billion year-to-date compared to $1.2 billion during the prior year period, largely driven by sharpening our inventory management practices. We continue to be very disciplined in the areas in which we invest.

我們繼續保持穩健的現金狀況，並在提高營運資金效率方面取得了良好進展。例如，今年迄今為止，我們的庫存減少了 32 億美元，而去年同期減少了 12 億美元，這主要得益於我們改進了庫存管理方法。我們在投資領域始終保持高度自律。

During the first nine months of 2025, we invested $892 million and maintain our expectations of full year 2025 CapEx to be in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion. Year-to-date, we have distributed $743 million in dividends. The last point I'll mention on this slide is that our net leverage ratio as of the end of September was 1.8 times, improved from last quarter and in line with our previously communicated year-end target ratio of approximately 2 times.

2025 年頭九個月，我們投資了 8.92 億美元，並維持我們對 2025 年全年資本支出在 13 億美元至 15 億美元之間的預期。今年迄今為止，我們已派發了 7.43 億美元的股息。我在這頁投影片上要提到的最後一點是，截至 9 月底，我們的淨槓桿率為 1.8 倍，較上一季有所改善，與我們之前公佈的年末目標比率（約 2 倍）相符。

Now turning to slide 10. We have provided details on our revised 2025 outlook. Earlier today, as Juan mentioned, we revised our full year 2025 adjusted EPS expectations. Taking into account our year-to-date results and the continued softness primarily in crush margins, we now expect adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $3.25 to $3.50 per share for full year 2025, down from the approximate $4 per share guide we provided during our second quarter earnings. I will now provide some color on several assumptions that are underpinning our revised guidance range.

現在請看第10張投影片。我們已提供有關我們修訂後的 2025 年展望的詳細資訊。正如胡安今天早些時候提到的那樣，我們修訂了 2025 年全年調整後每股收益預期。考慮到我們今年迄今的業績以及主要來自壓榨利潤率的持續疲軟，我們現在預計 2025 年全年調整後每股收益將在 3.25 美元至 3.50 美元之間，低於我們在第二季度財報中提供的約 4 美元的每股收益預期。接下來，我將詳細說明我們修訂後的指導範圍所依據的幾個假設。

First, with our self-help agenda, we remain on track to deliver between $200 million to $300 million in cost savings for 2025. Second, for AS&O, as we have previously discussed, as we move through each quarter, we increasingly lock in our book of business for the upcoming quarter. Based on the portion of our business already booked plus our view of the market, we are expecting continued softness in global soybean crush margins, which is a step down from our expectations last quarter when we were expecting global soybean margins to be in the range of approximately $60 to $70 per metric ton.

首先，透過我們的自助計劃，我們仍有望在 2025 年實現 2 億至 3 億美元的成本節約。其次，對於 AS&O 而言，正如我們之前討論過的，隨著每個季度的推進，我們會越來越頻繁地鎖定下一季的業務。根據我們已預訂的業務部分以及我們對市場的看法，我們預計全球大豆壓榨利潤率將繼續疲軟，這比我們上個季度的預期有所下降，當時我們預計全球大豆利潤率將在每公噸 60 至 70 美元左右。

Our Ag Services subsegment is expected to benefit from the robust harvest season we are having in North America. But given trade dynamics, results are projected to be weaker than we had forecasted at the time of our second quarter earnings, and the team will continue to progress our advancements related to plant uptime, manufacturing efficiencies and working capital improvement. We expect insurance proceeds of $10 million in the fourth quarter as compared to $50 million in the prior year quarter.

預計我們的農業服務子業務將受益於北美地區強勁的收成季。但鑑於貿易動態，預期業績將弱於我們在第二季財報時所預測的水平，團隊將繼續推進與工廠正常運作時間、生產效率和營運資本改善相關的各項工作。我們預計第四季保險賠付金額為 1,000 萬美元，而去年同期為 5,000 萬美元。

Thirdly, for Carbohydrate Solutions, on the Sweeteners and Starches front, we expect a continuation of the same pressure from softer demand trends that we have experienced throughout 2025 and expect high corn costs to persist in EMEA. Ethanol export flows are projected to drive similar sequential demand throughout the fourth quarter. However, margins are expected to be lower than the highs we experienced during third quarter.

第三，就碳水化合物解決方案而言，在甜味劑和澱粉方面，我們預計 2025 年全年需求疲軟的趨勢將繼續帶來相同的壓力，並預計 EMEA 地區的玉米成本將持續高企。預計第四季乙醇出口量將帶動類似季度環比需求成長。然而，預計利潤率將低於第三季的高點。

Ethanol EBITDA margins for fourth quarter 2025 are expected to be roughly 10% lower than the fourth quarter of 2024 EBITDA margin. We expect insurance proceeds of approximately $20 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 as compared to approximately $40 million in the prior year quarter.

預計 2025 年第四季乙醇 EBITDA 利潤率將比 2024 年第四季 EBITDA 利潤率低約 10%。我們預計 2025 年第四季的保險賠償金約為 2,000 萬美元，而去年同期約為 4,000 萬美元。

And lastly, for our Nutrition segment, we continue to take action on our portfolio optimization and are making sequential progress in network streamlining and cost improvements. In Human Nutrition, Flavors typically experience seasonal softness in the fourth quarter given our product concentration in the beverage categories. This is expected to be partially offset by improvement in Specialty Ingredients now that our Decatur East plant is returning to planned utilization rates.

最後，在營養品業務方面，我們繼續採取措施優化產品組合，並在網路精簡和成本改進方面取得穩步進展。在人類營養領域，由於我們的產品主要集中在飲料類別，因此香料通常在第四季度出現季節性疲軟。預計隨著迪凱特東部工廠恢復到計劃的利用率，特種配料業務的改善將部分抵消這一影響。

In Animal Nutrition, we will continue to pursue our ongoing turnaround actions, which includes the transition into higher-margin specialty ingredients. We expect insurance proceeds of approximately $5 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 as compared to $45 million in the prior year quarter. Insurance proceeds at the segment level for fourth quarter 2025 are expected to be funded roughly half by our captive insurer and half by third parties as compared to third parties funding the vast majority of insurance proceeds in the prior year quarter.

在動物營養領域，我們將繼續推動正在進行的轉型措施，其中包括向利潤更高的特種原料轉型。我們預計 2025 年第四季保險賠償金約為 500 萬美元，而去年同期為 4,500 萬美元。預計 2025 年第四季各業務部門的保險賠款將約一半由我們的自保保險公司提供資金，一半由第三方提供資金，而去年同期，第三方提供的保險賠款則佔絕大多數。

As Juan mentioned, we have continued to make good progress on our self-help agenda, focusing on strategic portfolio optimization, cost reductions and improved working capital management, all of which are strengthening our cash flow.

正如胡安所提到的，我們在自助計畫方面繼續取得良好進展，重點是策略性投資組合優化、降低成本和改善營運資本管理，所有這些都在增強我們的現金流。

Further, we have refined our digital strategy and are pivoting away from large global implementations and are directing our resources to prioritize regional and more agile projects and accelerating our data journey while continuing to invest the appropriate amount in cybersecurity and network and application resilience.

此外，我們改進了數位化策略，不再進行大規模的全球部署，而是將資源集中用於優先開展區域性和更靈活的項目，加快數據轉型，同時繼續在網路安全、網路和應用程式彈性方面投入適當的資金。

To conclude, I want to take a moment to thank all our ADM colleagues for their focus, adaptability and contributions to the company's long-term success. These efforts are integral to our ability to navigate the current dynamic environment.

最後，我要藉此機會感謝所有 ADM 的同事們，感謝他們的專注、適應能力以及為公司的長期成功所做的貢獻。這些努力對於我們應對當前瞬息萬變的環境至關重要。

Back to you, Juan.

胡安，該你了。

Thanks, Monish. Let me wrap up by saying, overall, we will continue to drive operational excellence and strong cash flow through our focus on manufacturing efficiencies, portfolio simplification and cost streamlining.

謝謝你，莫尼什。最後我想說的是，總體而言，我們將繼續透過專注於提高生產效率、簡化產品組合和精簡成本，來推動卓越營運和強勁的現金流。

In AS&O, our team is positioning our asset network to maximize opportunities from the expected improvement in market conditions, primarily as a result of global trade evolution and the pending US biofuels policy.

在 AS&O，我們的團隊正在調整我們的資產網絡，以最大限度地利用市場狀況預期改善帶來的機遇，這主要是由於全球貿易的發展和即將出台的美國生物燃料政策。

In Carbohydrate Solutions, we will continue to drive operational excellence and closely monitor softening consumer demand trends and broader economic signals while maintaining momentum around our decarbonization strategy, which we expect will open value opportunities in low carbon solutions. And for Nutrition, we expect steady progress across our portfolio with additional opportunities in natural colors.

在碳水化合物解決方案領域，我們將繼續追求卓越運營，密切關註消費者需求疲軟的趨勢和更廣泛的經濟訊號，同時保持脫碳策略的勢頭，我們預計這將為低碳解決方案帶來價值機會。在營養品方面，我們預期產品組合將穩定發展，並在天然色素領域獲得更多機會。

With that, we'll take your questions now. Operator, please open the line.

那麼，現在開始回答您的問題。接線員，請接通線路。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Ben Theurer, Barclays.

本·圖雷爾，巴克萊銀行。

So first of all, on crush and the outlook, obviously, a lot of things have changed. But can you help us reconcile a little bit the sequential decline in the third quarter for crush versus what you had in the second quarter and to a degree in the first quarter when actually the crush environment was, I would say, lower, but I mean, more stable, but at a lower level.

首先，關於暗戀和前景，顯然，很多事情都改變了。但是，您能否幫我們稍微解釋一下，為什麼第三季壓榨量會比第二季下降，甚至在一定程度上比第一季下降？實際上，第一季的壓榨環境雖然較低，但更穩定，只是水平較低。

So just help us reconcile like how much was like maybe locked in, carried into it and how we should think about crush sequentially, just crush on a stand-alone basis into the fourth quarter, just given the uncertainty that you've mentioned on biofuel. And then I have a very quick follow-up on those insurance numbers.

所以，請幫我們理清一下，有多少可能已經被鎖定，有多少被納入其中，以及我們應該如何按順序考慮粉碎機，僅僅作為一個獨立的粉碎機進入第四季度，考慮到您提到的生物燃料的不確定性。然後，我還要快速跟進這些保險號碼。

Sure, Ben. Listen, as you remember, soybean board crush rallied sharply post the RVO announcements. And if you recall, at the time of our last earnings calls, board crush was about like $2.25. Then after that, it has moved lower because of a variety of factors. We had a little bit of a decrease in acres in the US. Then, there was this chatter about the trade deal with China that made a pickup in beans basis here.

當然可以，本。聽著，你還記得吧，在 RVO 公告發布後，大豆板壓榨率大幅反彈。如果你還記得的話，在我們上次財報電話會議上，Board Crush 的股價大約是 2.25 美元。之後，由於各種因素，股價有所下跌。美國的耕地面積略有減少。然後，有關與中國的貿易協議的傳聞導致本地豆類價格上漲。

And certainly, we have the uncertainty about biofuels policy. There was a large amount of SREs granted in the period with the supplemental proposal to at least partially relocate that, but it is in comment period until the end of October and now a little bit delayed because of the government shutdown.

當然，生物燃料政策也存在不確定性。在此期間，批准了大量 SRE，並提出了至少部分搬遷的補充提案，但該提案的意見徵詢期要到 10 月底才結束，現在由於政府停擺而略有延遲。

So then in the period also, Argentina has a tax holiday that created the potential for increased crush in October, November, December period. So we saw that $2.25 turning into something like $1.20 and now currently bounce back to about $1.50. So in Q4, we expect board crush to remain in the current range, if you will. And as we are here today, we're probably booked about 80% of Q4. So certainly, the $4 range is out of range right now with no extra policy.

因此，在此期間，阿根廷也實施免稅政策，可能導致 10 月、11 月、12 月期間的石油需求激增。我們看到股價從 2.25 美元跌至 1.20 美元左右，目前已反彈至 1.50 美元左右。因此，我們預期第四季股價將維持在目前區間。截至目前，我們第四季的檔期大概已經排滿了 80%。所以，在沒有額外保險的情況下，目前4美元的價格區間肯定超出了範圍。

And so that's what we're seeing at the moment. So the plants are ready to crush harder. We still see with optimism 2026. The team has executed well in everything they could do in this environment, especially in the inventories when Monish reported $3.2 billion lower in inventory helping our cash position. That was basically a lot of that is the heavy lifting of the AS&O team trying to make improvements out of a difficult condition.

這就是我們目前所看到的。所以這些植物已經準備好承受更大的壓力了。我們依然對2026年充滿樂觀。在這種環境下，團隊在他們能夠做的所有事情上都做得很好，尤其是在庫存方面，Monish 報告稱庫存減少了 32 億美元，這有助於我們的現金狀況。基本上，AS&O 團隊承擔了大量繁重的工作，試圖在困難的情況下做出改進。

So we still feel very strong about 2026. All these things that are in motion right now, whether it's the RVO finalization, the RVO is positive for domestic feedstocks and certainly, the trade deal potentially to have more sales to China is also positive. But all those things need to be finalized during the next 60, 90 days or something like that, then we will have more clarity about where margins will move.

所以我們對2026年仍然充滿信心。目前正在進行的所有事情，無論是 RVO 的最終確定（RVO 對國內原料有利），還是可能增加對華銷售的貿易協議，都是積極的。但所有這些事情都需要在接下來的 60 到 90 天左右的時間內敲定，然後我們才能更清楚地了解利潤率的走向。

Okay. And then, Monish, just really quick on those insurance gains, you said half and half to come from. So that half that's kept us that's somehow then reflected in the other segment. Just wanted to confirm that.

好的。然後，莫尼什，關於保險收益，你剛才說一半來自哪裡，一半來自哪裡。所以，讓我們留下來的一半，某種程度上又反映在了另一部分。我只是想確認一下。

That's right, Ben. And similar to last year. So last year, our total insurance proceeds in the fourth quarter were $135 million. Most of that was funded by third-party insurance. This year, it's, give or take, $35 million. Half of it right now is funded by captive, and we assume that the other half will be funded by third party.

沒錯，本。與去年類似。因此，去年第四季我們的保險賠償總額為 1.35 億美元。其中大部分資金來自第三方保險。今年，這個數字大約是 3500 萬美元。目前其中一半資金由自有資金提供，我們預計另一半將由第三方提供資金。

Manav Gupta, UBS.

瑞銀集團的馬納夫·古普塔。

My first question is on your September announcement of forming a JV with Alltech. Help us understand how this came together and help us understand the benefits of this JV and how it helps ADM.

我的第一個問題是關於您九月宣布與Alltech成立合資企業的公告。請幫助我們了解這項合作是如何促成的，並幫助我們了解這項合作的好處以及它如何幫助 ADM。

Yes. Thank you, Manav. Listen, if you recall, our strategy in Animal Nutrition has two phases, if you will. One is what we call fit for growth, and that has been driving operational improvements. And we have seen, I think, sequential improvements in operations for the last like eight consecutive quarters in Animal.

是的。謝謝你，馬納夫。聽著，如果你還記得的話，我們在動物營養方面的策略分為兩個階段。其中之一是我們所說的適合成長的因素，而這一直在推動營運改善。我認為，在過去連續八個季度裡，Animal 的運作情況已經逐漸改善。

But the ultimate objective was to execute a pivot toward more specialties in Animal Nutrition. And so we basically combine here the compound feed businesses of ADM, and one of the leaders of the market, which is Alltech and combine really two powerhouses here, combining decades of experience and unparalleled capability with production expected to come in 2026.

但最終目標是向動物營養領域的更多專業化方向轉型。因此，我們基本上將 ADM 的複合飼料業務與市場領導者之一 Alltech 合併，真正將兩大巨頭結合起來，結合數十年的經驗和無與倫比的能力，預計將於 2026 年投產。

And with that, the ADM part that remains is more concentrated on Specialty Ingredients or premixes. And basically, we're going to be playing a little bit the Human Nutrition playbook, which is to have a specialty pipeline that can grow faster than maybe the big commodities that we have put in the joint venture. So we expect big synergies from that joint venture, big operational improvement, and we expect then the remaining Animal Nutrition in ADM to be a high-margin, high-growth type of segment, if you will.

因此，ADM 剩餘部分更專注於特種配料或預混料。基本上，我們將借鏡人類營養領域的一些經驗，打造一條能夠比我們在合資企業中投入的大宗商品成長更快的特色產品線。因此，我們預計該合資企業將帶來巨大的協同效應和營運改進，我們預計 ADM 剩餘的動物營養業務將成為高利潤、高成長的業務板塊。

Manav, I would add to Juan's piece on -- one is you asked for the JV, but I also want to just look, credit Ismael and Ian and the team on the progress they've made in general on Animal Nutrition. You can see the results showing from the operational side, which is the fit for growth that Juan mentioned. So overall, really good progress by that team on execution.

Manav，我想補充Juan的文章——一方面，你問到了合資企業，另一方面，我也想讚揚Ismael、Ian和他們的團隊在動物營養方面取得的整體進展。從營運方面可以看出結果，這正是胡安提到的成長契機。總的來說，該團隊在執行方面取得了非常好的進展。

Perfect. Sir, my quick follow-up is, and I understand there's a lot of policy non-clarity here. But the pieces which are on the table and not fully solved are a much higher RVO, a scenario in which there is no production tax credit for imported renewable diesel, only 50% RINs for imported feedstocks and the possibility of removing that indirect land use penalty clause, which will make soybean oil very competitive in terms of production tax credits with tallow and other waste oil.

完美的。先生，我的後續問題是，我知道這裡有很多政策不明確的地方。但目前擺在桌面上但尚未完全解決的問題包括：更高的 RVO（可再生能源價值單位）、進口再生柴油不享受生產稅收抵免、進口原料僅享受 50% 的 RIN（可再生能源識別碼）以及取消間接土地使用罰款條款的可能性。這將使大豆油在生產稅收抵免方面與牛油和其他廢油具有強大的競爭力。

So when you put all these things together, eventually when the policy comes around, you see a very, very strong '26 and '27, whereby you will have to make more renewable diesel in the US and make it more with domestic feedstocks and more like domestic soybean oil. If you could talk about all those policies which are on the table, I understand they're not finalized, but they create a very strong momentum for you if they do come together. If you could talk about that.

所以，把所有這些因素綜合起來，最終當政策出台時，你會看到 2026 年和 2027 年形勢非常嚴峻，屆時美國將不得不生產更多的可再生柴油，並且更多地使用國內原料，例如國內大豆油。如果您能談談所有正在討論中的政策，我知道這些政策尚未最終確定，但如果它們最終能夠落實，將會給您帶來非常強大的推動力。如果你能談談這件事就好了。

Yes. I think that you highlighted it correctly. All those pieces came very favorable, as I said in my initial remarks to domestic feedstock. So we expect as these policies are enacted and finalized. And again, there are many aspects of that, that needs to be finalized. We need to have the final RVO numbers. We need to have the treatment of the SREs. So there are many of those things that needs to be enacted.

是的。我認為你標註得沒錯。正如我在最初對國內原料的演講中所說，所有這些原料都非常有利。因此，我們期待這些政策能夠頒布和最終確定。而且，這其中還有很多方面需要最終確定。我們需要最終的RVO數據。我們需要對SRE進行治療。所以有很多事情需要落實。

But when all that is finalized, you can see a scenario in which RINs will probably pop first. So it's going to be a gradual improvement. But the way we have seen it in the past is RINs need to climb to allow renewable diesel plants to have margins for them to run. That in line will pull on more demand for soybean oil. That, in turn, will demand for us to crush more and to run our assets harder, which increases crush margins. And then as demand stabilizes and times go by, you can see margin coming up into biofuels as well. So that's kind of the way we see it running through our P&L.

但當這一切最終確定下來後，可能會出現 RIN 率先推出的局面。所以這將會是一個循序漸進的過程。但根據我們過去的經驗，RINs 需要上漲，才能使再生柴油發電廠有利潤空間來維持營運。這將進一步拉動大豆油的需求。反過來，這將要求我們壓榨更多礦石，更努力地運作我們的資產，從而提高壓榨利潤率。然後隨著需求趨於穩定，時間推移，生物燃料的利潤率也會上升。所以，這就是我們在損益表中看到的情況。

You have to remember that in crush, the big problem we have is this oil leg that is relatively soft right now that will be addressed by the RVOs whenever they are ready. In the other leg, meal has been very strong. Growth in meal has been like globally like 8.5%. We're expecting at about a very strong 6% still for next year.

你必須記住，在壓裂過程中，我們面臨的最大問題是目前相對較軟的油段，RVO（資源開採組織）將在準備就緒時解決這個問題。另一條腿的飯量非常大。全球膳食成長率約為 8.5%。我們預計明年仍將保持非常強勁的 6% 左右的成長率。

US continues to be very competitive meal, and meal continues to buy themselves into rations. So most of the customers of meal in the protein sector are showing profitability and good times. So that side of the leg is strong. If we can strengthen the RVOs and bring more clarity there, we expect strong crush margins going forward.

美國繼續保持強大的食品競爭力，並且繼續透過購買配給品來維持生計。因此，蛋白質產業的餐飲客戶大多展現了獲利能力，經營狀況良好。所以腿的這一側很強壯。如果我們能夠加強 RVO 並提高其透明度，我們預計未來壓榨利潤率將保持強勁成長。

And that's why I think if you remember last quarter, we said that we were setting up our footprint of plants to make sure that we will be able to run harder, and we are demonstrating that. So we are pleased with the setup. It's just from here to there, there is a lot of clarity that needs to happen that doesn't depend on us.

所以我覺得，如果你還記得上個季度的話，我們說過我們正在擴大工廠規模，以確保我們能夠更努力地運營，而我們正在證明這一點。我們對目前的配置很滿意。從這裡到那裡，還有很多事情需要釐清，而這些事情並不取決於我們。

We like to talk more about the things that we can do to improve. We have improved the company in terms of cost, in terms of cash, in terms of portfolio. We've been running this CCC that we call it cost, cash and capital since 2014 when we launched it. And I think the organization has this memory that we need to act into that. They quickly go and help us with the cost reduction targets, with the cash targets. And certainly, we make consistent and steady improvements in our portfolio optimization.

我們更願意討論我們可以做些什麼來改進。我們從成本、現金流量和投資組合等方面改善了公司。自 2014 年推出以來，我們一直在運行這個我們稱之為成本、現金和資本的 CCC。我認為組織內部有這種記憶，我們需要採取行動來記住它。他們迅速行動，幫助我們實現成本削減目標和現金目標。當然，我們在投資組合優化方面也一直持續穩定改善。

So we look at '26 with optimism. We just don't know if it's 12 months of '26 with optimism or 9 months of '26 with optimism because that depends on the government.

所以我們對2026年充滿樂觀。我們不知道樂觀展望的「2026年」是12個月還是9個月，因為這取決於政府。

Heather Jones, Heather Jones Research.

Heather Jones，Heather Jones 研究公司。

I wanted to go back to crush, Juan. And I understand all that you were saying as far as the crush curve, et cetera. But in the US, meal basis was pretty strong throughout Q3 and has been stronger than expected in early Q4. And just based on our data and anecdotal reports, cash margins were strong for much of Q3 and into early Q4.

我想回到我暗戀的對象胡安身邊。我完全理解你剛才說的關於壓碎曲線等等的內容。但在美國，第三季餐飲消費基數表現相當強勁，第四季初也比預期更強勁。僅根據我們的數據和非正式報告，第三季的大部分時間和第四季初的現金利潤率都很強勁。

So given the performance you all put up for Q3 and crush and then the outlook for Q4, just wondering if you could just break out where you think the big differences were? Was it -- did you have like most of your physical meal sold before the rally? Were you all short beans? Or just -- I was just hoping you could help us understand reconcile the two, if you could.

鑑於你們在第三季取得的優異成績以及對第四季的展望，我想請問你們能否具體分析一下，你們認為最大的差異在哪裡？是不是──你們的大部分食物都是在集會之前就賣了？你們都是矮個子嗎？或者說——我只是希望你能幫我們理解並調和這兩者，如果你能的話。

Yes. I think it's a little bit of both. But for the most part, when we get into the quarter, by the time we do earnings calls, we are like 75% sold for the next quarter. So we probably were sold before that rally. And then the rally didn't last that much -- that long, to be honest.

是的。我認為兩者兼而有之。但大多數情況下，到了季度末，當我們召開財報電話會議時，我們對下一季度的預期已經有了約 75% 的把握。所以我們可能在那波上漲行情之前就已經賣了。坦白說，集會並沒有持續太久。

So then today, where we are booking is very much similar in Q4 to what we booked in Q3. So – so, I don't see a significant improvement. There is a lot of variability. And I think that when I look at the performance of the commercial team, they've been -- they've done very well. So I can't pinpoint to one thing that we really regret in the business.

所以，目前我們第四季的預訂情況與第三季的預訂情況非常相似。所以，我沒看到明顯的改善。存在很多變數。我認為，從商業團隊的表現來看，他們做得非常好。所以我無法指出我們在業務上真正後悔的一件事。

I would say Ag Services was a little bit softer, but not much. I think that we have a good meal and corn program exporting from the US. Of course, we didn't have any beans going to China, but the volumes kind of held, if you will.

我覺得農業服務部門的政策稍微寬鬆一些，但差異不大。我認為我們有一個不錯的美國食品和玉米出口項目。當然，我們沒有向中國出口任何豆類產品，但銷售量基本上保持穩定。

In -- there was the difference that we didn't have the take-or-pays in Latin America that impacted us last year. So that was a little bit of a compensation for the lack of maybe exports to China. But in crush, we are seeing, again, an environment for us, for our business in Q4 kind of similar to what we booked in Q3. But maybe Monish can give more granularity on the numbers.

不同之處在於，去年拉丁美洲的「照付不議」政策對我們造成了影響，而我們今年並沒有面臨這種政策。所以這在某種程度上彌補了對華出口不足的問題。但就市場行情而言，我們再次看到，第四季我們的業務環境與第三季的情況有些類似。但或許莫尼什可以提供更詳細的數位資訊。

Yes, sure. So Heather, what Juan said is absolutely correct. So there was a period of time, if you look at when we had earnings last time and board was high, replacement margins were high at that point, too. And then as the quarter progressed, which is when we do a lot of our booking for Q4, you actually saw replacement margins come down.

當然可以。所以希瑟，胡安說的完全正確。所以有一段時間，如果你回顧我們上次獲利的時候，董事會成員很多，那麼當時的替換率也很高。隨著季度推進（也就是我們在第四季度大量預訂的時候），你會發現替換利潤率實際上下降了。

And that's why crush margins right now, what we are seeing is flat to slightly up depending on the geography you look at. I think North America, you're seeing crush margins will be slightly higher than Q3. But then you've got to remember, we got a global business. So then you've got all these other business -- other regions. And depending on how basis plays out in those, you would actually see a lower number.

這就是為什麼目前我們看到的壓榨利潤率持平或略有上升的原因，這取決於你觀察的地區。我認為北美地區的壓榨利潤率將略高於第三季。但你要記住，我們是一家全球性企業。所以，你還有其他地區的業務。而根據這些因素的影響，實際數字可能會更低。

So net-net, when we put it all together, Heather, we are saying it's somewhere flattish to a little higher. We'll see where it actually lands. As Juan said, we are decent sized booked coming into Q4. But of course, there are spot deals still available for the balance of the book.

所以總而言之，希瑟，當我們把所有因素綜合起來考慮時，我們認為它的地形介於平坦到略高一些之間。我們拭目以待。正如胡安所說，我們第四季的訂單量相當可觀。當然，本書剩餘部分仍有特價優惠。

And as I know Greg and the team, they're going to take every opportunity to get what they can. And so that's what we are going to work on. But nothing changes from the fact that the team is very focused on driving value, driving inventory, driving cost out. And as Juan has mentioned, when the crush comes, our plants are ready. And he talked about that, too, is we are seeing plant operations better.

據我所知，格雷格和他的團隊會抓住一切機會去獲取他們所能獲得的一切。所以這就是我們要努力的方向。但團隊專注於創造價值、減少庫存、降低成本這一事實並沒有改變。正如胡安所說，當葡萄成熟時，我們的植物已經準備就緒。他也談到，我們看到工廠運作有所改善。

So hopefully, as all these things come together, the team can continue to keep executing and keep driving more than where we are right now. But that's where we see it right now, and that's why we're calling it as is.

所以，希望隨著所有這些因素的共同作用，團隊能夠繼續保持執行力，並取得比現在更大的進步。但這就是我們目前所看到的，所以我們才這樣稱呼它。

Yes, Heather, one thing that I noticed, and I've been running ADM for like 10 years, is that right now, both farmers and customers are very reluctant to book long. So farmers are kind of selling reluctantly and buyers are kind of hand to mouth, if you will. So that doesn't allow for a full orderly flow of the chain, if you will, that we normally see.

是的，Heather，我注意到的一件事（我經營 ADM 已經大約 10 年了），就是目前農民和客戶都非常不願意預訂長期服務。所以農民有點不情願地出售農產品，而買家也只能勉強維持生計。所以，這就無法實現我們通常看到的那種完整的、有序的供應鏈運作。

And because of all this uncertainty, nobody knows exactly what's going to happen with soybean basis and all that based on the trade deal and nobody knows exactly what's going to happen with the oil leg because of the policy uncertainty. So everybody is like trying to go hand to mouth. And that makes it a little bit more difficult for us to reflect some of the conditions in the P&L. That may be one thing I noticed from the past.

由於所有這些不確定性，沒有人確切知道大豆基差以及所有基於貿易協議的因素將會發生什麼變化，也沒有人確切知道石油價格將會發生什麼變化，因為政策存在不確定性。所以大家都在勉強糊口。這使得我們在損益表中反映某些情況變得更加困難。這或許是我從過去的經驗中註意到的一件事。

That's helpful. And just my quick follow-up is just as we extrapolate forward, I know the hope is that we get a finalized RVO before the end of the year, but I think prudence would say it's probably coming in Q1. So just wondering how are you thinking about replacement margins for Q1? And like you said, farmers and customers are hand in mouth. But as much visibility as you do have, what are you seeing on that front?

那很有幫助。我接下來要補充的是，正如我們向前推斷的那樣，我知道大家都希望在年底前得到最終的 RVO，但我認為謹慎起見，它可能會在第一季公佈。所以想問您對第一季的替換利潤率有什麼看法？正如你所說，農民和顧客都捉襟見肘。但是，即便你掌握了這麼多訊息，你在這方面看到了什麼？

Yes. So Heather, I'll take a stab at this. So Juan, when Manav asked the question on how he sees policy play out, again, it depends on timing of clarity. So whether it's six months or nine months. But sitting today, since we still don't have clarity, the book that we are booking at for Q1 right now is, I would say, flattish to Q4. But again, we are open. So it's not like we have already booked all of our Q1.

是的。那麼，希瑟，我來試著回答一下。所以胡安，當馬納夫問到他對政策走向的看法時，他再次表示，這取決於政策何時明朗。所以無論是六個月還是九個月。但就目前情況而言，由於我們仍不明朗，我們目前對第一季的預訂量，我認為，到第四季將基本持平。但我們再次重申，我們持開放態度。所以，這並不意味著我們已經預定了第一季的所有檔期。

But I think the timing of when the policy comes in will actually have an impact. You're seeing right now, I think, the oil leg leaking with the current where soybean prices have gone up, but let's see how that plays itself out.

但我認為政策出台的時機實際上會產生影響。我認為，你現在看到的是，隨著大豆價格上漲，石油價格也隨之下跌，但讓我們看看事情會如何發展。

So to answer your question succinctly on Q1, right now, we haven't seen a big pop in margins. But hopefully, post regularity clarity, you will start seeing that to move up. The question is whether you see it for the first quarter, you see it for two quarters. It will all depend on the timing of the policy and also what's in that policy.

所以，簡單回答你關於問題 1 的問題，目前我們還沒有看到利潤率大幅成長。但希望在規律性明朗化之後，你會看到這種情況開始好轉。問題在於，如果你只看到第一季度，你會看到兩個季度。這一切都取決於政策推出的時機以及政策的具體內容。

Andrew Strelzik, BMO.

Andrew Strelzik，BMO。

I wanted to start by asking about your outlook for Ag Services. And the third quarter was stronger than we anticipated. You mentioned the trade deal with China, but you're talking about 4Q maybe being a little bit softer than you had originally anticipated. So I guess, was there a timing dynamic in the third quarter? What else has changed for the fourth quarter? And as you think about maybe that bit more subdued outlook, is that really a 4Q issue? Or does that linger as well into '26?

我想先問問您對農業服務業的看法。第三季業績比我們預期的要好。你提到了與中國的貿易協議，但你又說第四季的業績可能比你原先預期的要疲軟。所以我想，第三季是否存在某種時間安排上的考量？第四季還有哪些變化？考慮到市場前景可能略顯疲軟，這真的是第四季的問題嗎？或者這種情況會持續到 2026 年？

Listen, I think Ag Services, it was higher in Q3, as you noticed. And I would say versus last year, we had good volumes in North America when you consider our export of meal and of corn, our system worked well. And last year, we had the problem of the take-or-pay in Brazil that we sold for this year. So that has a delta there.

聽著，我認為農業服務業在第三季度有所增長，正如你所注意到的那樣。我想說，與去年相比，考慮到我們出口的玉米粉和玉米，我們在北美的銷售量很好，我們的系統運作良好。去年，我們在巴西遇到了「照付不議」的問題，而我們今年就解決了這個問題。所以這裡存在一個差值。

As we look forward, I think that the market right now is all about -- so we also have good destination marketing operations and our global trade operated well. We expect those things to continue, but margin opportunities are more difficult right now. I would say we really need this clarity on the trade deal. But although on the surface, it is possible, it is positive for ADM and for grain in general.

展望未來，我認為目前的市場狀況是——因此，我們擁有良好的目的地行銷運營，我們的全球貿易也運作良好。我們預計這些情況還會持續，但目前獲利機會更加難得。我認為我們真的需要就貿易協議問題達成明確的共識。雖然表面上看這並非不可能，但這對 ADM 和穀物產業來說都是正面的。

We haven't seen yet a joint document highlighting the details of this. So we really -- it's a big difference whether the 12 million tons of soybeans will happen in calendar year or in marketing year, of course. And whether that's counted the material that is sold versus the material that is shipped at what prices that will happen.

我們尚未看到一份詳細說明此事的聯合文件。所以，1200萬噸大豆是在日曆年還是在銷售年實現，這當然有很大的差別。以及這是否包括售出的材料與出貨的材料，以及由此產生的價格。

So a lot of that is still in the air. So that's what I was telling Heather before that there's a lot of people going hand to mouth and the farmers as well. If you look globally, farmer selling has been slow when you compare to historical average, probably with the exception of Argentina when they have the tax holiday, because farmer wants to see what's happened next.

所以很多事情目前還懸而未決。所以，我之前就跟希瑟說過，很多人過著朝不保夕的生活，農夫也是如此。從全球範圍來看，與歷史平均水平相比，農民的銷售速度一直很慢，阿根廷可能是個例外，因為他們有免稅期，所以農民想看看接下來會發生什麼。

And I think that at this point in time, the two big events that will move commodity prices will be clarity on the China trade deal and regulatory clarity on the biofuels policy. And until then, things are going to be a little bit hand to mouth for a while.

我認為，目前影響大宗商品價格的兩大事件將是中美貿易協定的明朗化以及生物燃料政策監管的明朗化。在此之前，日子還會過得比較拮据。

Andrew, I would just add one more on AS&O and across the business is execution. So that was the other thing in 3Q. Greg and his team continue to drive good cost control, very good job on inventory management, as you can see from the results. And that cost control or the self-help that Juan has mentioned was across all the businesses. So when you put all that together, that's how we came in with the adjusted EPS of $0.92. And I would say we continue that journey on self-help, including in the fourth quarter.

Andrew，我還要補充一點，AS&O 以及整個業務的執行力都很強。這就是第三季發生的另一件事。從結果中可以看出，格雷格和他的團隊繼續保持良好的成本控制，庫存管理也做得非常好。胡安提到的那種成本控製或自助措施在所有企業中都得到了應用。綜上所述，最終我們得出調整後每股收益為 0.92 美元。我認為我們將繼續推動自助領域的發展，包括第四季。

So to answer -- you had a second part to your question, which is, is this just a fourth quarter issue or not. So as I think about it, good execution in 3Q. Once policy clarity comes in, in 2026, that sets us up great for '26 and '27, as Manav also said. And so this is just that transition quarter, and the team will continue to drive every self-help idea they can operationally to keep getting better.

所以，為了回答你的問題──你的問題還有第二部分，那就是，這只是第四季的問題嗎？所以我覺得，第三季執行得很好。正如馬納夫所說，一旦政策在 2026 年明朗化，這將為我們 2026 年和 2027 年的發展奠定良好的基礎。所以這只是一個過渡季度，團隊將繼續在營運中推動所有可能的自助理念，以不斷進步。

Pooran Sharma, Stephens.

Pooran Sharma，Stephens。

Sorry to just belabor on this point but maybe wanted to just talk about some of the moving pieces here for clarity in the biofuel policy. I think you have the SRE kind of comment period out of the way. And I know you have some noise with the government shutdown. But we've been hearing reports that the EPA has prioritized the RVO through the shutdown and that maybe you could see something in the hands of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) by early to mid-December, which then could set the 2025 compliance date towards the end of Q1.

很抱歉在這一點上贅述太多，但或許我想談談生物燃料政策中一些需要考慮的因素，以便更清楚地了解情況。我認為SRE方面的意見徵詢期已經結束了。我知道你們那邊因為政府停擺事件而有些不滿。但我們一直聽到有報道稱，環保署在政府停擺期間優先考慮了 RVO，或許在 12 月初到 12 月中旬，管理和預算辦公室 (OMB) 就能拿到相關文件，然後可能會在第一季度末確定 2025 年的合規日期。

And if you think about what the industry would do like the obligated parties would then need to shore up their 2025 books. So do you kind of see a -- from a timing benefit as it stands right now, this being kind of an early to mid-Q1 event? Or how should we think about kind of the moving pieces here?

如果你想想這個行業會怎麼做，例如那些負有義務的各方就需要鞏固他們2025年的帳目。所以，從目前的情況來看，考慮到這是第一季初到中期發生的事件，您是否認為這會帶來一些時機上的優勢？或者我們應該如何看待這裡各種互動的因素？

Thank you, Pooran. Listen, let me tell you what we know. We know that EPA is aligned with the agricultural industry to support American agriculture and energy dominance through strengthening of the domestic demand for domestic feedstock and prioritizing that.

謝謝你，普蘭。聽著，讓我告訴你我們所知道的情況。我們知道，美國環保署與農業產業立場一致，透過加強對國內原料的需求並優先考慮這一需求，來支持美國農業和能源的主導地位。

I don't want to speculate on who's working on what at the EPA. I think that the EPA is committed to that. And as quickly as they can, they're going to resolve that because they know the industry needs that and the agricultural industry needs that.

我不想猜測環保署裡誰在負責什麼工作。我認為美國環保署致力於實現這一目標。他們會盡快解決這個問題，因為他們知道工業界和農業界都需要這個問題。

So our role is to be prepared, and we will be prepared. You will see, as I explained before, in the gradual improvement of these, whenever the market will detect that there is movement, you're probably going to see RINs popping up. And then eventually, we're going to see crush margins popping up. And so we're ready to do that. Other than that, I will be speculating, and I have no basis to do that, Pooran. So I will leave it there.

因此，我們的職責是做好準備，而且我們一定會做好準備。正如我之前解釋的那樣，隨著這些技術的逐步改進，每當市場檢測到市場出現波動時，你可能會看到 RIN 出現。最終，我們會看到壓榨利潤率的出現。所以我們已經準備好這樣做了。除此之外，我都是在猜測，而我沒有任何依據這樣做，普蘭。我就說到這裡吧。

Okay. Great. I appreciate the color there. Maybe just shifting over to Starches and Sweeteners. I think we're approaching that time of the year where you get into contracting season. And just was wondering how we should think about the moving pieces here.

好的。偉大的。我喜歡那裡的顏色。或許可以改用澱粉和甜味劑。我認為我們即將進入一年中的合約簽訂旺季。我只是想知道我們應該如何看待這裡各種變化因素。

I think you have buyers pushing for lower prices amid a larger carryout. And I think you and others have noticed -- noted some softness in demand in the industry. But at the same time, you have really good export volumes. So I was just wondering if you could tell us how negotiations have been faring? And do you think there's the potential for this contracting season to get stretched out like it did last year?

我認為，在訂單量增加的情況下，買家會要求降低價格。我認為你和其他人也已經注意到——注意到該行業的需求已經疲軟。但同時，你們的出口量也非常好。所以我想問您，談判進度如何？你認為今年的合約簽訂季有可能像去年一樣持續很久嗎？

I would say we are maybe 20, 30 days away from knowing what happened in the contract season. So negotiations are happening right now. So I won't comment on that. I would say corn is plentiful and the US will have a very large crop based on good yields and higher acreage. I think that Brazil will have a record crop. Argentina will have another 50-million-ton crop. So I would say raw material will be plentiful, but there has been good demand for corn around the world. Corn, I think, is being used in many ways, of course, in feeding, but also in biofuels policy.

我認為我們可能還需要 20 到 30 天才能知道合約季節發生了什麼。所以談判現在正在進行中。所以我對此不予置評。我認為玉米供應充足，根據良好的產量和更高的種植面積來看，美國將迎來非常大的玉米豐收。我認為巴西今年將迎來豐收。阿根廷將再迎來5000萬噸的糧食收成。所以我認為原料供應充足，而且世界各地對玉米的需求一直很好。我認為玉米有很多用途，當然包括糧食生產，以及生物燃料政策。

And if you think about the US is competitive to -- in ethanol to Brazil, and Brazil has E30. There are governments out there that are enacting like E10 for next year. We have E15 all year round in California. So ethanol continues to be the cheapest oxygenate out there. So 2 billion gallons of export this year, maybe 2.2 billion, 2.3 billion for next year. So I think there's going to be a lot of corn, but demand is robust as well.

如果你想想美國在乙醇領域與巴西的競爭，而巴西有 E30 乙醇。有些國家的政府正在製定類似E10的政策，明年實施。加州全年都有E15汽油供應。因此，乙醇仍然是目前最便宜的含氧添加物。所以今年出口量為 20 億加侖，明年可能是 22 億或 23 億加侖。所以我認為玉米供應會很充足，而且需求也很強勁。

As you said, in general, in the products in carb solutions, we have seen some softness, both in Sweeteners and Starches and -- and yes, in sweeteners and also in starches due to corrugated boxes and cardboard. So we'll have to see. Our team produces more than 20 products from the wet mills from corn.

正如您所說，一般來說，在碳水化合物溶液中的產品中，我們發現甜味劑和澱粉都有些變軟——是的，甜味劑和澱粉都是由於瓦楞紙箱和紙板造成的。所以我們拭目以待。我們的團隊利用濕磨機以玉米為原料生產 20 多種產品。

So we balance that equation as we go into the negotiating contracts. So we continue to feel good about the negotiation. As I said, we are doing it now. Contracting is coming along nicely, and we normally report this in February. That's where we finish every year.

因此，我們在進行合約談判時，需要權衡這個因素。因此，我們對談判結果依然感到樂觀。正如我所說，我們現在正在做這件事。合約簽訂進展順利，我們通常會在二月報告這一情況。我們每年都止步於此。

We have, as you heard me saying over the years, we have avoided the cliff that we used to have in which every contract will end at the same time. So we have a more balanced portfolio of contracts that makes us this time of the year less concerning for at least ADM. But as I said, I think that contract season is going normal. I wouldn't describe anything else, but we will have more to say in February.

正如我這些年來一直強調的那樣，我們已經避免了過去那種所有合約同時終止的局面。因此，我們擁有更均衡的合約組合，這使得我們每年的這個時候至少對 ADM 來說不必那麼擔心。但正如我所說，我認為合約季節進展正常。我不會透露更多細節，但我們會在二月公佈更多資訊。

Tom Palmer, JPMorgan.

湯姆‧帕爾默，摩根大通。

I wanted to ask on the Nutrition business. You cited seasonality is, I think, the main quarter-over-quarter headwind to think about. But at the same time, I think previously, you had a bit more of a sequential improvement embedded in the outlook. So curious about what might have shifted and to what extent seasonality is normal versus maybe there are some extra factors this year?

我想諮詢一下營養產業方面的問題。我認為，你提到的季節性因素是影響季度環比成長的主要不利因素。但同時，我認為以前，前景中蘊含著一種循序漸進的改善趨勢。我很好奇究竟是什麼因素發生了變化，以及季節性因素在多大程度上是正常的，還是今年存在一些額外的因素？

Sure, Tom. Yes. I think what we see in Nutrition is sequential improvement in operational capabilities of the Nutrition business. We've been fixing things, and now we're very happy that the East plant is back up. So -- and you saw Animal Nutrition continues to be sequentially improving.

當然可以，湯姆。是的。我認為我們在營養領域看到的是營養業務運作能力的逐步提升。我們一直在進行修復工作，現在我們非常高興東部工廠已經恢復運作。所以——你也看到了，動物營養狀況一直在穩定改善。

I think that Flavors is a big part of the business, of course, and Flavors, we are heavily tilted towards beverages and beverages sold more in the summer. So as the Northern Hemisphere faces the winter now and enters into the winter, we normally see about a 15% reduction in our volumes as we go into Q4.

我認為香精當然是業務的重要組成部分，而且我們主要專注於飲料，尤其是夏季銷售量較大的飲料。因此，隨著北半球進入冬季，我們通常會看到第四季銷量下降約 15%。

So that will be partially offset by the fact that we will have a full quarter, hopefully, of operations of the East plant that will bring our cost down as we are producing white flakes versus buying it from competitors. But we are in the process of recovering customers there. So you have those puts and takes. But I would say the business continue its path to improve to operational improvements.

因此，我們將有一部分損失被東工廠預計將全面投產一個季度所抵消，這將降低我們的成本，因為我們將自己生產白薄片，而不是從競爭對手那裡購買。但我們正在努力挽回那裡的客戶。所以就有了這些買進和賣出。但我認為，該企業將繼續朝著營運改善的方向發展。

Okay. And I did have a clarification question just on Ag Services. There was the export window in Argentina late in 3Q. To what extent was that a benefit in 3Q? And will there be -- just curious how the booking works, right, with shipments versus arrivals. Will there be a boost to think about in 4Q from that as well?

好的。我還有一個關於農業服務的澄清問題。第三季末期，阿根廷出現了一個出口窗口期。第三季度，這種優勢體現在多大程度上？會有嗎？ ——我只是好奇預訂是如何運作的，對吧，發貨和到貨是如何區分的。第四季是否也會因此迎來利好？

So the way it works is that we did get a piece of that export license. I'll have to go back and check memory, but some of our shipments did happen in Q3, and you're going to see some of that in Q4. But that will be -- that's already reflected in our export numbers and in our guide that we have given you, Tom. So no delta on there.

所以事情的經過是這樣的，我們確實拿到了一部分出口許可證。我得回去查一下記憶，但我們的一些貨物確實在第三季度發貨了，你會在第四季度看到其中的一些。但這種情況將會改變——這一點已經反映在我們的出口數據和我們給你的指南中了，湯姆。所以這方面沒有差額。

And I would say we continue to watch that, Tom, in Argentina because, of course, after this holiday and after the election success, farmer have not been selling that much as there has been no devaluation in Argentina. So we will have to see how the commercialization will happen. We think it's going to be tight commercialization until the end of the year. So we're watching that closely.

湯姆，我想說，我們還要繼續關注阿根廷的情況，因為當然，在這次假期和選舉成功之後，由於阿根廷貨幣沒有貶值，農民們並沒有賣出那麼多農產品。所以，我們得看看商業化進程會如何發展。我們認為，今年的商業化進程將會非常緊張，這種情況會持續到年底。所以我們正在密切關注此事。

Steven Haynes, Morgan Stanley.

史蒂文‧海恩斯，摩根士丹利。

I was hoping you could maybe put a finer point on the crush outlook for 4Q. I think you mentioned before that the margins are going to kind of be stable and that volumes might be higher quarter over-quarter. Maybe just to frame it versus last year would also help in terms of the actual segment dollars. I think it was around $200 million. Would you expect the fourth quarter to be above that or in line or maybe a bit below? If you could just help frame it that way, that would be helpful.

我希望您能更詳細地分析一下第四季的疫情前景。我想你之前提到過，利潤率會保持穩定，銷售量可能會逐季成長。或許將今年的數據與去年的數據進行比較，也能幫助了解實際的細分市場收入。我想大概是2億美元左右。你認為第四季會高於這個數字、與這個數字持平，還是略低於這個數字？如果你能幫我這樣解釋一下，那就太好了。

And just so I get your question right, Steven, you're talking about AS&O or crush? You're talking about crush, right? So if you look at crush, crush margins are going to be lower on a year-over-year basis. Just based on where we've talked about already about all the factors impacting it, where it's flat to slightly up from Q3, but still down on a year-over-year basis. So based on that, we would expect that crush on a year-over-year basis would definitely get impacted.

史蒂文，我確認一下，你問的是AS&O還是Crush？你說的是暗戀對象吧？因此，從壓榨的角度來看，壓榨利潤率將會較去年同期下降。根據我們之前討論過的所有影響因素來看，雖然與第三季相比持平或略有成長，但與去年同期相比仍然下降。因此，基於此，我們預期同比來看，壓軸戲的戲份肯定會受到影響。

Secondly, just remember that in our results, we normally mark-to-market our derivative positions at the end of every quarter. So depending on where crush margins or basis ends up being on December 31, you could see a positive mark or a negative mark. At the end of the day, all that mark is doing is moving money between quarters, but it doesn't change the overall economics.

其次，請記住，在我們的業績報告中，我們通常會在每季末按市值對衍生性商品部位進行計價。因此，根據 12 月 31 日壓榨利潤率或基差的最終情況，可能會出現正向或負向的標記。歸根究底，這種做法只是在不同季度之間轉移資金，但並不會改變整體經濟狀況。

So that's how we'll have to figure out and then figure out how board crush timing goes because that also has an impact. But if you just look at pure execution margins on a year-over-year basis, it is lower. And therefore, as a result of that, execution margins in crush will be lower in dollars also on a year-over-year basis, even though Greg and team are continuing to drive higher volume in the factories as can be evidenced by the work that you saw in Q3, where we have managed to have production greater than 2% on a year-over-year basis.

所以，我們需要弄清楚這一點，然後再弄清楚壓板時機，因為這也會產生影響。但如果僅從年比來看純粹的執行利潤率，則有所下降。因此，儘管格雷格和他的團隊繼續推動工廠提高產量（正如您在第三季度看到的那樣，我們已成功實現同比增長超過 2%），但壓榨環節的執行利潤率同比仍將下降。

I would also add canola into that same complex, Steven, just so that you know it's the same dynamic. Even canola is down on a year-over-year basis. So that will also have an impact. So it's both of those show up in crush.

史蒂文，我還要把油菜籽也加到這個體系裡，這樣你就知道情況是一樣的了。就連油菜籽的產量也較去年同期下降了。所以這也會產生影響。所以這兩者都出現在了 Crush 中。

Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾，美國銀行。

I'm just wondering, you got a lot of questions about next year's crush margin and what could happen. I'm just wondering on trade dynamics and the potential new -- the higher demand, assuming the RVOs are approved as they're proposed right now, whether it's in Q1 or Q2, could we see the US at that point becoming a net importer of soybean oil? And if that happens, given that we have a bunch of tariffs, assuming the same place, what kind of move could we see in domestic soybean oil prices that could go into your bottom line as a domestic producer?

我只是好奇，你對明年的壓榨利潤率以及可能發生的情況有很多疑問。我只是在思考貿易動態和潛在的新需求——假設 RVO 按照目前的提議獲得批准，無論是在第一季度還是第二季度，我們是否會看到美國屆時成為大豆油的淨進口國？如果這種情況發生，考慮到我們有很多關稅，假設情況不變，國內豆油價格可能會出現什麼樣的波動，從而影響到國內生產商的利潤？

Yes. A lot of speculation in that question. We do, as you suggest, we run scenarios all the time, and there are many things that could happen. So let's chop it by pieces here. On RVOs, we know whenever the policy is enacted, we're going to be crushing more, and soybean oil will be more demanded. We have the beans to take care of that today.

是的。這個問題有很多猜測。正如您所建議的，我們一直在進行情境模擬，而且有很多事情可能會發生。那我們就把它分解成幾個部分來分析。關於 RVO，我們知道一旦政策實施，我們將壓榨更多大豆，對大豆油的需求也會增加。我們今天有足夠的資源來解決這個問題。

But of course, you bring the possibility of 12 million to 25 million tons exports to China, and that moves the equation. If the 12 million tons is on a calendar -- a marketing year basis, it's a different pipeline that is a different carryout that we have in the US versus if it's on a -- that needs to be shipped all in 2025. So all those things are put into the consideration.

當然，你提出的對華出口1200萬至2500萬噸的可能性，改變了整個局面。如果這 1,200 萬噸是按日曆年（即行銷年度）計算的，那麼它需要走不同的管道，需要走不同的運輸路線，這與我們在美國的情況不同；而如果這 1200 萬噸需要在 2025 年全部運輸，情況就不同了。所以所有這些因素都會被納入考慮範圍。

I would say markets tend to adjust. So there is going to be a strong crush in Argentina. There's going to be a strong crush in Brazil. If the US has more demand than we can supply internally, then prices will come up, and we will attract other productions, and we could end up importing soybean oil.

我認為市場往往會自我調整。所以阿根廷將會出現一波強烈的搶購潮。巴西將會掀起一股熱潮。如果美國的需求超過了我們國內的供應能力，那麼價格就會上漲，我們會吸引其他生產商，最終我們可能需要進口大豆油。

At this point in time, we are exporting the soybean oil. So it will be a significant change, but that significant change will be brought by policy and RINs popping up and the things that we described before. So it is a possibility. And before that, we're ready to crush very, very hard to supply domestically before imports come in.

目前，我們正在出口大豆油。所以這將是一個重大的變化，但這個重大的變化將是由政策和 RIN 的出現以及我們之前描述的事情帶來的。所以這並非不可能。在此之前，我們已經做好了全力以赴滿足國內需求的準備，以防進口產品進入市場。

I think, Salvator, you need to reflect on the fact that we have improved our operations to supply exactly this kind of environment. I think our Ag Services and Oilseeds is ready to tackle any commitment that the US or China will make in terms of exporting and ADM has a big percentage of all those exports and the capabilities to do so.

薩爾瓦托，我認為你需要反思一下，我們已經改進了營運方式，正是為了創造這種環境。我認為我們的農業服務和油籽業務已經準備好應對美國或中國在出口方面做出的任何承諾，ADM 在所有這些出口中佔有很大的份額，並且有能力做到這一點。

And ADM has the plants ready to crush very hard and supply the policy -- the domestic policy that the EPA is supportive. So we got ourselves ready to do that. The company is in good shape from a cash and cost perspective, and we are continuing to adjust our portfolio. So we look at '26 and '27 with a lot of optimism.

ADM公司已經準備好工廠進行高強度碾壓，以支持美國環保署支持的國內政策。所以我們就做好準備了。從現金流量和成本角度來看，公司狀況良好，我們正在繼續調整我們的投資組合。所以我們對 2026 年和 2027 年充滿樂觀。

At this time, I'll now hand it over to Kate Walsh for any further remarks.

現在，我將把發言權交給凱特·沃爾什，請她再作補充說明。

Thank you all for joining the call today. If you have additional questions, please feel free to reach out directly to me. We appreciate your continued interest and support and wish you a great rest of your day.

感謝各位今天參加電話會議。如果您還有其他問題，請隨時直接與我聯絡。感謝您一直以來的關注與支持，祝福您今天剩下的時間愉快。

Thank you all for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

感謝各位參加今天的電話會議。現在您可以斷開線路了。