Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning and welcome to the ADM fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call.

    早安,歡迎參加ADM 2025年第四季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

    (操作員說明)提醒各位,本次電話會議正在錄音。

  • I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Kate Walsh, Director, Investor Relations for ADM. Ms. Walsh, you may begin.

    現在我謹向大家介紹今天電話會議的主持人,ADM 投資者關係總監 Kate Walsh。沃爾什女士,你可以開始了。

  • Kate Walsh - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Kate Walsh - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Welcome to the fourth quarter earnings conference call for ADM. Our prepared remarks today will be led by Juan Luciano, Chair of the Board and Chief Executive Officer; and MonIsh Patolawalo, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

    歡迎參加ADM第四季財報電話會議。今天,我們的演講將由董事會主席兼執行長胡安·盧西亞諾和執行副總裁兼財務長莫尼什·帕托拉瓦洛主持。

  • We have prepared presentation slides to supplement our remarks on the call today, which are posted on the investor relations section of the ADM website and through the link to our webcast. Some of our comments and materials may constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance, and financial results.

    我們準備了演示文稿,以補充我們今天在電話會議上的發言,這些演示文稿已發佈在 ADM 網站的投資者關係部分,並通過我們的網絡直播鏈接發布。我們的一些評論和資料可能構成前瞻性陳述,反映了管理層對未來經濟狀況、行業狀況、公司業績和財務結果的當前觀點和估計。

  • These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation and the materials. Unless otherwise required by law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements due to new information or future events.

    這些聲明和材料基於許多假設和因素,而這些假設和因素存在許多風險和不確定性。ADM 已在其提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中提供了更多信息,這些信息涉及可能導致實際結果與本次演示和材料中的結果存在重大差異的假設和因素。除非法律另有規定,否則 ADM 不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

  • In addition, during today's call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are available in our earnings press release and presentation slides, which can be found in the investor relations section of the ADM website.

    此外,在今天的電話會議中,我們將提及某些非GAAP或調整後的財務指標。這些非GAAP財務指標與最直接可比較的GAAP財務指標的調節表可在我們的獲利新聞稿和簡報中找到,這些文件可在ADM網站的投資者關係部分找到。

  • With that, I will now turn the call over to Juan.

    接下來,我將把電話交給胡安。

  • Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Kate. Hello, and welcome to all who have joined the call. Please turn to slide 4, where we have outlined our performance highlights. Today, ADM reported fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.87 and full year adjusted earnings per share of $3.43. Total segment operating profit was $821 million for the fourth quarter and $3.2 billion for the full year.

    謝謝你,凱特。大家好,歡迎各位參加本次通話。請翻到第 4 頁投影片,其中概述了我們的業績亮點。今天,ADM公佈了第四季度調整後每股收益為0.87美元,全年調整後每股收益為3.43美元。第四季總部門營業利潤為8.21億美元,全年為32億美元。

  • Our trailing fourth quarter adjusted ROIC was 6.3%. And cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $2.7 billion for 2025. We also made good strides in managing our working capital. For example, we realized a $1.5 billion cash flow benefit from inventory reduction.

    我們上一季調整後的ROIC為6.3%。2025 年營運資本變動前的經營活動現金流為 27 億美元。我們在營運資金管理方面也取得了顯著進展。例如,我們透過減少庫存實現了 15 億美元的現金流收益。

  • I'll share a few highlights from across our business for fourth quarter. Our AS&O team delivered record crush volumes in South America. Our Carbohydrate Solutions team capitalized on ethanol opportunities. And our Nutrition team continued to improve execution across the board. And throughout our operating footprint, global teams improved manufacturing efficiencies. I am proud of the team's rigor around focused execution and capital discipline throughout the year. And in the fourth quarter, we paid our 376 consecutive quarterly dividend.

    我將和大家分享我們公司第四季的一些亮點。我們的AS&O團隊在南美洲實現了創紀錄的壓榨量。我們的碳水化合物解決方案團隊充分利用了乙醇帶來的機會。我們的營養團隊在各方面都持續改善執行力。在我們遍佈各地的營運基地,全球團隊提高了生產效率。我為團隊全年展現的專注執行力和資金紀律感到自豪。第四季度,我們連續第 376 個季度派發了股息。

  • Please turn to slide 5. We navigated the dynamic and difficult market during 2025. And as we steered through those headwinds, we intensified our focus on areas within our control and prepare our business to take full advantage of what is expected to become a more constructive operating environment going forward. Here is a recap of the significant progress we made during 2025.

    請翻到第5張投影片。我們在 2025 年成功應對了瞬息萬變且充滿挑戰的市場。在克服這些不利因素的同時,我們更加專注於我們可控的領域,並讓我們的業務做好準備,以充分利用未來有望變得更加積極的經營環境。以下是我們2025年的重大進展回顧。

  • First, we executed more than 20 projects as part of portfolio optimization and simplification initiatives that are helping strengthen our business and support our core strategy going forward. Through this work, we achieved approximately $200 million of cost savings and announced the joint venture with Alltech, which I'm pleased to report has commenced operations recently.

    首先,我們執行了 20 多個項目,作為投資組合優化和簡化計劃的一部分,這些計劃有助於加強我們的業務並支持我們未來的核心策略。透過這項工作,我們節省了約 2 億美元的成本,並宣布與 Alltech 成立合資企業,我很高興地報告,該合資企業最近已開始營運。

  • Second, we addressed plant efficiency issues across our asset network and reduce our unplanned downtime. We restored operations at our Decatur East plant and achieved an important safety milestone by having the lowest injury rate in the company's history.

    其次,我們解決了資產網路中的工廠效率問題,並減少了非計畫性停機時間。我們恢復了迪凱特東部工廠的運營,並實現了公司歷史上最低的工傷率,並取得了重要的安全里程碑。

  • Third, we reached an important decarbonization milestone. We connected our Columbus, Nebraska corn milling plant to Tallgrass Trailblazer pipeline, extending our carbon capture and storage infrastructure beyond our Decatur operations.

    第三,我們實現了重要的脫碳里程碑。我們將位於內布拉斯加州哥倫布市的玉米加工廠與 Tallgrass Trailblazer 管道連接起來,從而將我們的碳捕獲和儲存基礎設施擴展到了迪凱特營運區之外。

  • Fourth, we advanced nutrition recovery, improved execution and increased revenue. Fifth, we generated a strong cash flow as we relentlessly focused on improving working capital. And as we announced last week, we reached the closure of government investigations of ADM related to the company's prior reporting regarding intersegment sales. We are pleased to put these matters behind the company.

    第四,我們推進了營養恢復,提高了執行力,增加了收入。第五,我們透過不懈地專注於改善營運資金,創造了強勁的現金流。正如我們上週宣布的那樣,政府對 ADM 公司先前有關部門間銷售報告的調查已經結束。我們很高興公司已經解決了這些問題。

  • Please turn to slide 6. Our operating environment throughout 2025 was challenging, and our team demonstrated impressive resilience as we strengthened the core of our business through portfolio optimization, disciplined capital allocation, tighter working capital execution, enhanced cost control and lower transaction costs. This strengthening of our business not only allows us to continue to increase our dividend and return cash to shareholders, it also affords us the ability to invest in future growth regardless of the commodity cycle.

    請翻到第6張投影片。2025 年全年,我們的經營環境充滿挑戰,但我們的團隊展現出了令人印象深刻的韌性,透過優化投資組合、嚴格分配資本、更嚴格地執行營運資本、加強成本控制和降低交易成本,鞏固了我們業務的核心。業務的增強不僅使我們能夠繼續提高股息並向股東返還現金,而且還使我們能夠投資於未來的成長,而無需考慮商品週期。

  • There are five key focus areas for our next wave of growth. We are leveraging our assets and expertise along with technology to build out our operations in enhanced nutrition, biotics, biosolutions, precision fermentation and decarbonization. Each of this business has a different growth profile and time line for value creation, but each complement what we're doing today and present the potential for compelling enduring returns.

    我們下一階段成長的重點領域有五個。我們正在利用我們的資產和專業知識以及技術,拓展我們在增強營養、生物製劑、生物解決方案、精準發酵和脫碳領域的業務。這些企業各自的成長模式和價值創造時間表都不同,但它們都與我們今天所做的事情相輔相成,並展現出帶來可觀的持久回報的潛力。

  • For example, we are advancing innovations in enhanced nutrition for allergen-free protein, unlocking opportunities in specialized nutrition such as ultra-high protein drinks, protein bars and fortified snacks. On the natural flavor side, we have created patented technology for clean citrus flavors that are high-value ingredients for beverages.

    例如,我們正在推動無過敏原蛋白質的強化營養創新,從而在超高蛋白飲料、蛋白棒和強化零食等特殊營養領域開拓機會。在天然風味方面,我們創造了專利的純淨柑橘風味技術,這些風味是飲料的高價值成分。

  • In natural colors, we have developed a breakthrough natural blue, addressing one of the food and beverages industry's toughest challenges, producing a natural, stable, water-soluble and safe blue pigment, which is exceptionally rare in nature.

    在天然色彩方面,我們開發了一種突破性的天然藍色,解決了食品飲料行業面臨的最嚴峻挑戰之一,生產出一種天然、穩定、水溶性且安全的藍色顏料,這種顏料在自然界中極為罕見。

  • We're also developing next-generation functional ingredients that combine the benefits of biotics and botanicals. Across operations, we continue to invest in site stream valorization as part of our ongoing efforts to optimize our production processes and add value to our byproducts. We also see a long, multiyear run rate of growth projects connected to the work we're doing around large-scale decarbonization, including carbon sequestration.

    我們也正在開發下一代功能性成分,將益生菌和植物萃取物的優點結合起來。在營運的各個方面,我們持續投資於場地資源增值,這是我們不斷努力優化生產流程並為副產品增加價值的一部分。我們還看到,與我們圍繞大規模脫碳(包括碳封存)所做的工作相關的成長項目,將持續多年。

  • I'd now like to discuss the key market trends and company growth drivers for 2026 that support our outlook for a more constructive operating environment. The recent progress with China trade relations combined with the expectation of pending US biofuel policy clarity should support an increasingly constructive market environment throughout this year, particularly for our AS&O business.

    現在我想討論2026年的關鍵市場趨勢和公司成長驅動因素,這些因素支撐了我們對更具建設性經營環境的展望。最近中美貿易關係的進展,加上美國生物燃料政策即將明朗化的預期,應該會在今年全年創造一個越來越積極的市場環境,尤其有利於我們的AS&O業務。

  • We expect positive economic opportunities for the industry and the American farmer to materialize, which should drive additional long-term investments throughout our business and the agriculture sector. Our outlook also assumes segment operating profit for Carbohydrate Solutions to remain relatively flat, with lower Starches & Sweeteners volumes and pricing, offset by higher ethanol margins. And Nutrition is expected to continue its trajectory of stronger organic growth and execution. Overall, there is much to look forward to in 2026 and beyond.

    我們預計,該行業和美國農民將迎來積極的經濟機遇,這將推動我們業務和農業部門獲得更多長期投資。我們的展望也假設碳水化合物解決方案部門的營業利潤將保持相對平穩,澱粉和甜味劑的銷售和價格將有所下降,但乙醇利潤率的提高將抵消這一影響。預計營養品產業將繼續保持強勁的內生成長和執行力。總而言之,2026年及以後有很多值得期待的事。

  • Our current outlook for adjusted EPS in 2026 is a range between $3.60 and $4.25, which reflects growth over 2025 and appropriately captures the fluidity in timing and market response as global trade and biofuel policies continue to evolve.

    我們目前對 2026 年調整後每股收益的預期在 3.60 美元至 4.25 美元之間,這反映了 2025 年的增長,並恰當地反映了隨著全球貿易和生物燃料政策的不斷演變,時間安排和市場反應的靈活性。

  • With that, let me hand it over to Monish to share a deeper dive into fourth quarter and full year 2025 financials as well as the assumptions underpinning our 2026 guidance.

    接下來,我將把麥克風交給莫尼什,讓他更深入分析 2025 年第四季和全年的財務狀況,以及我們 2026 年業績指引所依據的假設。

  • Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Juan. Please turn to slide 7. 2025 was a dynamic year in the global trade and biofuel policy landscape, both of which impacted AS&O results. AS&O segment operating profit for the fourth quarter was $444 million, down 31% compared to the prior year quarter. For the full year, AS&O segment operating profit was $1.6 billion, 34% lower compared to 2024.

    謝謝你,胡安。請翻到第 7 張投影片。 2025 年是全球貿易和生物燃料政策格局發生巨大變化的一年,這兩方面都對 AS&O 的業績產生了影響。AS&O部門第四季營業利潤為4.44億美元,較上年同期下降31%。全年來看,AS&O部門的營業利潤為16億美元,比2024年下降了34%。

  • In the Ag Services subsegment, operating profit was $174 million for the fourth quarter, representing a decrease of 31% compared to the prior year quarter. The decrease was driven primarily by lower export activity from North America combined with net negative timing impacts of approximately $50 million compared to the prior year quarter.

    在農業服務子業務板塊,第四季營業利潤為 1.74 億美元,比去年同期下降 31%。下降的主要原因是北美出口活動減少,加上與去年同期相比約 5,000 萬美元的淨負面影響。

  • For the full year, Ag Services operating profit was down 11% compared to 2024 driven by lower North American exports and a challenged global trade environment. Throughout the year, pharma selling was limited by muted pricing, and combined with customers reducing the amount of inventory held, we experienced fewer trading opportunities.

    受北美出口下降和全球貿易環境充滿挑戰的影響,全年農業服務營業利潤比 2024 年下降了 11%。全年藥品銷售受到價格低迷的限制,再加上客戶減少了庫存,我們遇到的交易機會也相應減少。

  • In the Crushing subsegment, operating profit was $66 million, down 69% from the prior year quarter. While global crush volumes increased over the prior year quarter, with crush volumes increasing 7% sequentially and 4% compared to the prior year quarter, weaker crush margins in North and South America pressured results.

    在破碎業務子部門,營業利潤為 6,600 萬美元,比上年同期下降 69%。儘管全球壓榨量較上年同期有所增長,環比增長 7%,同比增長 4%,但北美和南美壓榨利潤率下降,給業績帶來了壓力。

  • Additionally, there were net negative timing impact of approximately $20 million compared to the prior year quarter. Further, there were approximately $20 million of reduced insurance proceeds related to the Decatur East claims versus the prior year quarter.

    此外,與上年同期相比,淨時間影響為負面約 2,000 萬美元。此外,與上一季相比,迪凱特東部索賠相關的保險賠償金減少了約 2000 萬美元。

  • For the full year, Crushing operating profit was down 81% compared to 2024, with the main reason being a significantly weaker crush margin environment. Year-over-year, there were approximately $44 million of reduced insurance proceeds.

    全年來看,破碎業務的營業利潤比 2024 年下降了 81%,主要原因是破碎利潤率環境明顯疲軟。與前一年相比,保險賠償金減少了約 4,400 萬美元。

  • In the Refined Products and Other subsegment, operating profit was $119 million, down 2% compared to the prior year quarter as positive timing impact helped offset weaker food demand and lower biodiesel and refining margins. We have a net positive timing impact of approximately $72 million as compared to the prior year quarter.

    在精煉產品及其他子業務板塊,營業利潤為 1.19 億美元,較上年同期下降 2%,正面的時機影響抵消了食品需求疲軟和生物柴油及煉油利潤率下降的影響。與去年同期相比,我們獲得了約 7,200 萬美元的淨正向時間影響。

  • For the full year, RPO operating profit was 4% lower than 2024 due to the same food and fuel dynamics that pressured fourth quarter results. Equity earnings from our investment in Wilmar were $85 million for the quarter. Excluding specified items, it was up 49% compared to the prior year quarter.

    由於與第四季業績相同的食品和燃料市場動態,RPO 全年營業利潤比 2024 年下降了 4%。本季度,我們從對豐益國際的投資中獲得的股權收益為 8,500 萬美元。剔除特定項目後,與去年同期相比成長了 49%。

  • We typically record our share of Wilmar's financial results on a three-month lag basis, with the exception of material transaction or events that occurred during the intervening period that materially affect the financial position or results of operations.

    我們通常以三個月滯後的方式記錄我們應佔豐益國際的財務業績,但中間期間發生的重大交易或事件,如果對財務狀況或經營業績產生重大影響,則不在此列。

  • During the fourth quarter, we recorded a $254 million gain related to the transaction Wilmar closed, and have presented this as a specified item. For the full year 2025, equity earnings from Wilmar, excluding specified items, were approximately 14% lower as compared to 2024.

    第四季度,我們確認了與 Wilmar 完成的交易相關的 2.54 億美元收益,並將其列為特定項目。2025 年全年,威爾瑪的股權收益(不包括特定項目)比 2024 年下降了約 14%。

  • Turning now to slide 8. For the fourth quarter, Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit was $299 million, down 6% compared to the prior year quarter. Similar to the third quarter of 2025, we saw the continued weakness in Starches & Sweeteners be largely offset by strength in ethanol margins.

    現在翻到第8張幻燈片。第四季度,碳水化合物解決方案部門的營業利潤為 2.99 億美元,比去年同期下降 6%。與 2025 年第三季類似,我們看到澱粉和甜味劑業務的持續疲軟很大程度上被乙醇利潤率的強勁表現所抵消。

  • For the full year, Carb Solutions segment operating profit was $1.2 billion, down 12% compared to 2024. Further, there were approximately $33 million of reduced insurance proceeds related to the Decatur East and West claims versus prior year quarter.

    全年來看,Carb Solutions部門的營業利潤為12億美元,比2024年下降了12%。此外,與上一季相比,迪凱特東區和西區索賠相關的保險賠償金減少了約 3,300 萬美元。

  • For the fourth quarter, Starches & Sweeteners operating profit was $256 million, down 16% compared to the prior year quarter, in part due to a continuation of consumer buying trends experienced throughout 2025. We are seeing S&S softness being driven primarily from less consumption of packaged goods, and this impacted both volumes and margins.

    第四季度,澱粉和甜味劑業務的營業利潤為 2.56 億美元,比去年同期下降 16%,部分原因是 2025 年消費者購買趨勢的延續。我們看到零售業疲軟主要是因為包裝商品消費減少所致,這影響了銷售和利潤率。

  • Additionally, in EMEA, S&S volumes and margins continue to be impacted by persistent high corn costs related to industry-wide crop quality issues that we have previously disclosed. Importantly, for this quarter, there were approximately $33 million of reduced insurance proceeds related to Decatur East and West claims compared to the prior year period.

    此外,在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,由於我們先前揭露的與行業普遍存在的作物品質問題相關的玉米成本持續高企,銷售和銷售的銷售和利潤率繼續受到影響。值得注意的是,本季與迪凱特東區和西區索賠相關的保險賠償金比去年同期減少了約 3,300 萬美元。

  • For the full year, S&S operating profit decreased by 21% as compared to 2024, with the decline primarily attributable to the ongoing trends impacting the fourth quarter. Year-over-year, there were approximately $75 million of reduced insurance proceeds.

    與 2024 年相比,S&S 全年營業利潤下降了 21%,下降的主要原因是持續影響第四季的趨勢。與前一年相比,保險賠償金減少了約 7,500 萬美元。

  • For the Vantage Corn Processors subsegment, operating profit for the fourth quarter was $43 million, up 187% from the prior year quarter. Ethanol industry margins remained stable through October and November, before experiencing typical seasonal softening in December. Export and pricing strength continue to be supported primarily by mandated markets, which has kept inventory levels balanced.

    Vantage Corn Processors 子部門第四季營業利潤為 4,300 萬美元,較上年同期成長 187%。乙醇產業的利潤率在 10 月和 11 月保持穩定,之後在 12 月出現了典型的季節性疲軟。出口和價格的強勁勢頭主要得益於強制性市場,這使得庫存水準保持平衡。

  • Overall, ethanol EBITDA margins per gallon for the quarter were approximately 33% higher compared to the prior year quarter. For the full year, VCP operating profit was up $119 million compared to 2024, driven by stronger demand improving ethanol margins.

    整體而言,本季每加侖乙醇的 EBITDA 利潤率比去年同期高出約 33%。全年來看,VCP 的營業利潤比 2024 年增加了 1.19 億美元,主要得益於強勁的需求提高了乙醇的利潤率。

  • Now turning to slide 9. In the fourth quarter, Nutrition segment revenues were $1.8 billion, remaining relatively flat compared to the prior year quarter. Human Nutrition revenue increased by 5% and Animal Nutrition revenue decreased by 4% compared to the prior year quarter. Animal Nutrition revenue was impacted by previously disclosed portfolio exits.

    現在請看第9張投影片。第四季度,營養品業務收入為 18 億美元,與去年同期相比基本持平。與去年同期相比,人類營養品收入成長了 5%,動物營養品收入下降了 4%。先前揭露的投資組合退出對動物營養業務的收入造成了影響。

  • Nutrition segment operating profit was $78 million for the fourth quarter, down 11% compared to the prior year quarter. As previously disclosed, insurance proceeds related to Decatur East in the fourth quarter of 2024 of $46 million, as compared to zero proceeds received in the fourth quarter of 2025.

    第四季營養品業務的營業利潤為 7,800 萬美元,較上年同期下降 11%。如先前揭露,2024 年第四季與迪凱特東區相關的保險賠償金為 4,600 萬美元,而 2025 年第四季則未收到任何賠償金。

  • Human Nutrition operating profit was $56 million, down 10% compared to the prior quarter, with the decline attributable to a reduction in insurance proceeds. Excluding the impact of insurance, the growth was largely attributable to strong North America flavor sales and recovery in Specialty Ingredients.

    人類營養業務的營業利潤為 5,600 萬美元,比上一季下降了 10%,下降的原因是保險賠償金減少。剔除保險的影響,成長主要歸功於北美香精銷售的強勁表現和特殊配料業務的復甦。

  • For the full year, Human Nutrition operating profit was $319 million, down 2% when compared to 2024. Human Nutrition experienced significant operating profit growth led by flavors and the recovery of specialty ingredients. However, this growth was more than offset by the reduction of insurance proceeds. As previously disclosed, insurance proceeds related to Decatur East in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $71 million, as compared to zero proceeds received in the fourth quarter of 2025.

    全年來看,人類營養業務的營業利潤為 3.19 億美元,比 2024 年下降了 2%。人類營養品業務在香精香料和特殊配料復甦的帶動下實現了顯著的營業利潤成長。然而,保險賠償金的減少完全抵消了這一增長。如先前揭露,2024 年第四季與迪凱特東區相關的保險賠償金為 7,100 萬美元,而 2025 年第四季則未收到任何賠償金。

  • For Animal Nutrition, operating profit was $22 million for the quarter, down 15% compared to the prior year quarter as a result of localized volume softness and the impact of onetime items. For full year 2025, Animal Nutrition operating profit was $98 million, 66% higher than 2024, with the growth driven by improved margins as a result of focusing on higher-margin product lines combined with portfolio streamlining actions and cost optimization efforts.

    動物營養業務本季營業利潤為 2,200 萬美元,較上年同期下降 15%,原因是局部地區銷售疲軟以及一次性專案的影響。2025 年全年,動物營養業務的營業利潤為 9,800 萬美元,比 2024 年成長了 66%,成長主要得益於利潤率的提高,這得益於專注於高利潤率產品線,以及產品組合精簡措施和成本優化工作。

  • For the fourth quarter of 2025, Corporate and Other Business costs increased by approximately 25% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. For the full year, Corporate and Other Business costs increased by approximately 19% compared to 2024.

    2025 年第四季度,公司及其他業務成本比 2024 年第四季成長了約 25%。全年來看,公司及其他業務成本比 2024 年成長了約 19%。

  • In both periods, the increase was primarily due to higher charges related to revaluation losses, including impairment, contingency and restructuring charges. These losses were partially offset by lower interest expense, higher other income and lower unallocated corporate function costs.

    在這兩個時期,成長的主要原因是與重估損失相關的費用增加,包括減損費用、或有費用和重組費用。這些損失部分被較低的利息支出、較高的其他收入和較低的未分配公司職能成本所抵銷。

  • Turning now to slide 10. For 2025, ADM generated cash flow from operations before working capital of approximately $2.7 billion, down by $600 million relative to 2024 as a result of lower overall total segment operating profit. Restricted cash increased $1.2 billion to $4.5 billion, mainly driven by ADMS. We continue to maintain a solid cash position, and we have made good progress in improving our working capital efficiency. As Juan mentioned, we realized a $1.5 billion cash flow benefit from inventory reduction as we sharpened our inventory management practices and improved demand forecasting.

    現在翻到第10張投影片。2025 年,ADM 的經營活動產生的現金流(不包括營運資本)約為 27 億美元,比 2024 年減少了 6 億美元,這是由於整體部門營業利潤下降所致。受限現金增加 12 億美元至 45 億美元,主要由 ADMS 推動。我們繼續保持穩健的現金狀況,並且在提高營運資金效率方面取得了良好進展。正如胡安所提到的那樣,透過改進庫存管理方法和提高需求預測,我們減少了庫存,從而實現了 15 億美元的現金流收益。

  • We continue to be very disciplined in the areas in which we invest. For 2025, we continue to be very prudent in our investments and invested $1.2 billion in capital expenditures. We also returned $987 million in dividend to shareholders throughout 2025, with Q4 being our 376th consecutive quarterly dividend. And finally, our leverage ratio at December 31, 2025, was 1.9 times, in line with our previously communicated year-end target ratio of approximately 2 times.

    我們在投資領域始終保持高度自律。2025年,我們將繼續保持非常謹慎的投資態度,並在資本支出方面投入了12億美元。2025 年,我們也向股東返還了 9.87 億美元的股息,第四季是我們連續第 376 個季度派發股息。最後,截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日,我們的槓桿率為 1.9 倍,與我們先前公佈的年末目標槓桿率約為 2 倍基本一致。

  • Now turning to slide 11. We have provided further details on our 2026 outlook. Earlier today, as Juan mentioned, we provided our current outlook for 2026. We are providing an adjusted EPS range of $3.60 to $4.25 for the full year 2026 and view this range of outcomes highly predicated on several key factors.

    現在請看第11張投影片。我們已提供有關 2026 年展望的更多詳細資訊。正如胡安今天早些時候提到的那樣,我們提供了我們對 2026 年的最新展望。我們對 2026 年全年調整後的每股盈餘預期為 3.60 美元至 4.25 美元,並認為這一預期範圍很大程度上取決於幾個關鍵因素。

  • First, the timing of when we receive US biofuel policy clarity. The earlier we receive policy clarity, the larger the opportunity to take advantage of what we expect will be an increasingly more constructive operating environment.

    首先,我們需要了解美國生物燃料政策何時才能明朗。政策越早明朗,我們就越有機會利用預期中將日益有利的經營環境。

  • Second, the size of the RVO requirement and the SRE offset. With the final mandate still under evaluation, visibility into the magnitude of improvement in the operating environment and the pace of industry adoption remains limited.

    其次,RVO 需求的大小和 SRE 偏移量。由於最終授權仍在評估中,因此對營運環境改善的幅度以及產業採用的速度的可見度仍然有限​​。

  • Third, we expect robust ethanol export opportunities to continue driven by mandated markets. We also expect domestic demand to strengthen with the US biofuel policy clarity and ethanol margin strength to be further supported by policy incentives. Strength in ethanol is expected to offset the continued softness in S&S projected from a continuation of the same consumer behavior trend we experienced in 2025.

    第三,我們預期在強制市場的推動下,強勁的乙醇出口機會將持續維持。我們也預計,隨著美國生物燃料政策的明朗化,國內需求將會增強,政策誘因將進一步支撐乙醇利潤率的強勁成長。預計乙醇市場的強勢將抵消S&S市場持續疲軟的影響,而這種疲軟預計將源於我們在2025年經歷的相同消費者行為趨勢的延續。

  • Fourth, we are expecting continued growth in Nutrition driven by growth in flavors, continued recovery in specialty ingredients and growth in health and wellness as global consumption of biotic increases and customers expand their range of applications. And in Animal Nutrition, we expect margin expansion to contribute to Nutrition's operating profit growth as we focus on higher-margin products and see the benefits of our portfolio optimization actions materialize.

    第四,我們預計營養領域將繼續成長,這主要得益於風味產品的成長、特種配料的持續復甦以及健康和保健領域的成長,因為全球對生物製品的消費量增加,客戶也擴大了其應用範圍。在動物營養領域,我們預計隨著我們專注於高利潤率產品並看到產品組合優化措施的效益逐步顯現,利潤率的擴張將有助於營養業務的營業利潤成長。

  • As Juan mentioned, we have commenced operations of the joint venture with Alltech. And while we don't expect it to have a material impact on nutrition operating profit in 2026, we will see revenue decrease as a result of contributing those operations to an equity investment.

    正如胡安所提到的,我們已經開始與Alltech的合資企業運作。雖然我們預計這不會對 2026 年的營養業務營業利潤產生實質影響,但由於將這些業務投入股權投資,我們將看到收入下降。

  • Fifth, moving to Corporate. We expect a portion of the segment operating profit growth discussed to be offset by higher expenses year-over-year that reflect continued investment in R&D and digital platform, the impact of lower performance-based incentive compensation related to 2025 and expected effective tax rate between 18% and 20%, and lower ADMIS interest income due to lower interest rate environment.

    第五,調到公司總部。我們預計,上述業務部門營業利潤成長的一部分將被同比增加的支出所抵消,這些支出反映了對研發和數位平台的持續投資、與 2025 年相關的績效激勵性薪酬降低以及預計 18% 至 20% 的實際稅率的影響,以及由於利率環境走低而導致的 ADMIS 利息收入減少。

  • We will also maintain a disciplined capital allocation policy, including a focus on solid cash flow generation while we continue to pursue cost savings. And we remain on track to achieve our targeted aggregate cost savings of $500 million to $750 million over three to five years, which we began in 2025. Additionally, for 2026, we expect to invest approximately $1.3 billion to $1.5 billion in capital expenditures.

    我們將繼續維持嚴格的資本配置政策,包括專注於創造穩定的現金流,同時繼續尋求節省成本。我們仍有望在三到五年內實現 5 億至 7.5 億美元的總成本節約目標,該計畫於 2025 年啟動。此外,我們預計 2026 年將在資本支出方面投資約 13 億至 15 億美元。

  • With regards to the first quarter of 2026, as previously disclosed, we expect crush margins in the first quarter of 2026 to be similar to the fourth quarter of 2025 as we have already booked a large portion of our first quarter business.

    關於 2026 年第一季度,正如先前披露的那樣,我們預計 2026 年第一季的壓榨利潤率將與 2025 年第四季度相似,因為我們已經預定了第一季的大部分業務。

  • As a reminder, we don't exclude mark-to-market from our estimates. So depending on how factors, including board crush and cash margins move, we could see positive or negative mark-to-mark timing impacts that differ from our current expectations.

    再次提醒,我們的估算中並未排除以市值計價。因此,根據董事會破產和現金利潤率等因素的變動情況,我們可能會看到與我們目前預期不同的正面或負面的市值計價時間影響。

  • In Carb Solutions, we see similar trends to those we saw throughout 2025 relating to demand softness in Starches & Sweeteners, and we expect ethanol margins to be tempered by higher industry run rate. Nutrition is expected to show continued improvement over the prior period and sequentially as we drive revenue growth and continue to see benefits from the recovery of specialty ingredients.

    在碳水化合物解決方案領域,我們看到了與 2025 年澱粉和甜味劑需求疲軟類似的趨勢,我們預計乙醇利潤率將因行業運行速度加快而受到抑制。隨著我們推動收入成長並繼續從特種原料的復甦中獲益,預計營養業務將比上一時期和環比持續改善。

  • This improvement is expected to be partially offset by the previously disclosed employee incentive compensation favorability in the first quarter of 2025. Our team is also continuing to monitor consumer behavior as it relates to our Human Nutrition business.

    預計這項改善將被先前揭露的 2025 年第一季員工激勵性薪酬優惠政策部分抵銷。我們的團隊也持續關注與人類營養業務相關的消費者行為。

  • To conclude, I want to thank our ADM colleagues for their focus, disciplined execution and continued commitment to our long-term success. These efforts remain essential to navigating today's dynamic operating environment and delivering value for our shareholders.

    最後,我要感謝ADM的同事們,感謝他們的專注、嚴謹的執行和對我們長期成功的持續投入。這些努力對於應對當今瞬息萬變的經營環境和為股東創造價值仍然至關重要。

  • Back to you, Juan.

    胡安,該你了。

  • Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Monish. Let me wrap up by saying thank you to our colleagues for the solid strides made during 2025 with our strategic portfolio optimization and cost reduction initiatives, all of which are expected to strengthen our business and our cash flow for years to come.

    謝謝你,莫尼什。最後,我要感謝各位同事在 2025 年透過策略組合優化和成本削減舉措取得的穩定進展,所有這些舉措都有望在未來幾年內增強我們的業務和現金流。

  • We're building out the next wave of long-term value creation, and specifically for 2026, we will be highly focused on optimizing our results in what we expect to be an increasingly constructive operating environment.

    我們正在建立下一波長期價值創造浪潮,特別是對於 2026 年,我們將高度專注於在預期中日益積極的經營環境中優化我們的業績。

  • With that, we'll take your questions now. Operator, please open the line.

    那麼,現在開始回答您的問題。接線員,請接通線路。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Manav Gupta, UBS.

    瑞銀集團的馬納夫·古普塔。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Good morning, And first, I really want to congratulate the entire team, and I know Monish and his team particularly worked very hard with the SEC and DOJ. So glad that's all behind you, very happy for you about that.

    早安,首先,我真心想祝賀整個團隊,我知道莫尼什和他的團隊特別與美國證券交易委員會和司法部進行了非常努力的合作。真為你高興,一切都過去了。

  • My first question here is, sir, that I know it's difficult to provide a guide with RVO not out there, and thanks for doing that. I'm just trying to understand, renewable diesel margins are already on way to amend. RINs are also moving higher. And so when the RVO finally arrives, do you expect a material jump in the operating rates and processing rates of both biodiesel and renewable diesel facilities because then they would know exactly how much RINs they would have to meet, how much, the market would know how much RIN obligation would be? So if you could talk a little bit about that.

    先生,我的第一個問題是,我知道在沒有 RVO 的情況下提供指南很困難,感謝您這樣做。我只是想了解一下,再生柴油的利潤率已經開始調整了。RIN值也在上漲。因此,當 RVO 最終到來時,您是否預期生物柴油和再生柴油設施的營運率和加工率會大幅提高,因為屆時他們將確切地知道他們需要滿足多少 RIN,市場也將知道 RIN 的義務是多少?所以,您能稍微談談這方面的狀況嗎?

  • Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thank you, Manav. And yes, we are very pleased to leave these investigations behind us with this closure. Listen, it's been very difficult to give a guidance because of there are so many things that you described outside our control, and we don't feel comfortable in that regard. That's why our guidance is wide.

    是的。謝謝你,馬納夫。是的,我們非常高興能夠結束這些調查,並且最終結案。聽著,由於你提到的很多事情是我們無法控制的,所以我們很難給予指導,在這方面我們感到很不自在。這就是為什麼我們的指導方針範圍很廣。

  • What we are discussing here is the timing of all these coming to the P&L. We know it's positive. We know it's going to come. So I think that when it's coming, it depends on when the government makes a decision and clarify the policies, but also how the market digests those policies and those get implemented. We're going to see board crush, we're going to see RINs, but at the end of the day, we need to see cash margins moving.

    我們現在討論的是所有這些項目何時計入損益表。我們知道結果是陽性。我們知道這一天終會到來。所以我認為,何時到來,取決於政府何時做出決定並明確政策,也取決於市場如何消化這些政策以及這些政策如何實施。我們會看到董事會崩潰,我們會看到 RINs 崩潰,但歸根結底,我們需要看到現金利潤率有所改善。

  • And don't forget that our business, which is a very large business, works in anticipation of the market. So we tend to sell, every time we get into a quarter, we are sold maybe 60% or 70% into the following quarter. So if these things will be done at the end of Q1, for us, it will be mostly July onwards, if you will, that we will be able to realize that. So that's what creates the uncertainty.

    別忘了,我們這個規模龐大的企業,其營運模式是基於市場的預測。所以我們傾向於在每季開始時賣出股票,可能賣出下一季股票的 60% 或 70%。所以如果這些事情要在第一季末完成,對我們來說,大概要到七月才能實現。這就是造成不確定性的原因。

  • I think not in a calendar year, this is extremely positive for the industry and certainly for ADM, pulling more vegetable oils into biofuels. That's going to happen not only in the US with the RVOs, but it is going to happen in Brazil, hopefully, with B16 started either in March or in June. It's going to happen also in other places around the world.

    我認為在一年之內不會發生這種情況,這對整個行業,尤其是對 ADM 來說,都是極其積極的,因為這將使更多的植物油轉化為生物燃料。這種情況不僅會在美國透過 RVO 實現,而且預計在巴西實現,B16 計畫將於 3 月或 6 月啟動。這種情況也會在世界其他地方發生。

  • So again, I think we try to be very balanced in saying we see improvement based on the year-over-year on the things that we can control. We see some clarity in trading as we're going to have some volumes from soybeans going to China that we didn't have in 2025 materially. And then we see this RVO that's going to help with the lag of the oil for the crush. Mill continues to be supported. And then with growth in Nutrition, as we described.

    所以,我認為我們盡量保持平衡,在談到我們能夠控制的因素時,要看到逐年進步。我們看到貿易狀況變得明朗起來,因為2025年我們將有大量大豆出口到中國,而這在2025年是無法實現的。然後我們看到這個 RVO 將有助於解決壓榨過程中油的滯後問題。Mill 將繼續獲得支持。然後,正如我們所描述的,營養領域也隨之發展。

  • So we're very constructive about the future for ADM. We also, I also talked, Manav, a little bit about the long term. We have identified five platforms that are really very exciting, that they're going to come over the next five years, a different time line based on the difficulties or easiness of their implementation. So when you think about our self-improvement plus all the policy coming our way, again, that is a matter of timing, plus our growth prospects, we feel very strongly about the next few years for ADM.

    所以我們對ADM的未來非常樂觀。我還和馬納夫聊了聊長遠發展。我們已經確定了五個非常令人興奮的平台,它們將在未來五年內陸續推出,具體時間表取決於實施的難易程度。所以,考慮到我們的自我提升以及即將推出的所有政策,這又是一個時機問題,再加上我們的成長前景,我們對 ADM 未來幾年的發展充滿信心。

  • Manav Gupta - Analyst

    Manav Gupta - Analyst

  • Thank you so much for the detailed response. I'll turn it over. Thanks.

    非常感謝您的詳細回覆。我把它翻過來。謝謝。

  • Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ben Theurer, Barclays.

    本·圖雷爾,巴克萊銀行。

  • Benjamin Theurer - Analyst

    Benjamin Theurer - Analyst

  • Oh, yeah, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my question. I wonder if I Just a follow-up, same wishes on my side, congrats on closing the case. I wanted to follow up on the outlook piece and dig a little bit into Nutrition and kind of like tying it back to some of the commentary you've made in the past, Decatur East being back up. Obviously, the fourth quarter probably wasn't as good as expected, what you had initially kind of like pegged down for the Nutrition segment.

    哦,對,早安。非常感謝您回答我的問題。我想知道我是否可以……只是想跟進一下,我也希望如此,恭喜你們結案。我想就展望部分做個後續探討,深入研究一下營養問題,並把它和你過去發表的一些評論聯繫起來,例如迪凱特東高中重新崛起。顯然,第四季可能沒有預期的那麼好,也沒有達到你最初對營養品板塊的預期。

  • So as we move into '26, maybe can you give us an update on where you stand like gaining these customers back on the fulfillment, everything you first lost on Decatur East that you now need to kind of like gain back? And maybe within the range of the guidance associated, what are kind of like the bull and the bear cases here as it relates to, A, demand, and then B, the fulfillment of the demand from your side?

    進入 2026 年,您能否向我們介紹您目前的進展,例如在履行方面重新贏得客戶,以及您在迪凱特東區最初失去的所有客戶,您現在需要重新贏得這些客戶?或許在相關指引的範圍內,這裡分別有哪些類似牛市和熊市的情況,分別與以下兩方面有關:A,需求;B,您這邊的需求滿足情況?

  • Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Ben. Listen, let me start addressing a little bit the performance of Nutrition, the true performance. Because I think it is important that we provide clarity on the operating performance of the business. If you compare apples-to-apples, Q4 2025 versus Q4 2024, Q4 2024 has a significant piece of insurance proceeds into the Nutrition P&L.

    謝謝你,本。聽著,讓我先來談談營養的實際表現,真正的表現。因為我認為,清楚說明公司的經營績效非常重要。如果將 2025 年第四季與 2024 年第四季進行公平比較,2024 年第四季營養損益表中將有相當一部分來自保險賠償。

  • So if you exclude that, just to see the operating performance, we had a very strong quarter in flavors with OP up close to 60% or something, and biotics up north of that, driven mostly from flavor North America, which had a very strong quarter.

    所以,如果排除這些因素,僅從營運業績來看,我們在香精業務方面取得了非常強勁的季度業績,營業額增長接近 60% 左右,而生物製劑業務的增長也超過了這個數字,這主要得益於北美香精業務的強勁表現。

  • We did have a little bit of a softer quarter from a demand perspective in Europe. And we don't know if it just was timing or something because we've seen it recover in, when we started the year in 2026. So we saw that coming back in January.

    從需求角度來看,我們本季在歐洲的業務確實略顯疲軟。我們不知道這是否只是時機問題,因為我們已經看到它在 2026 年初恢復了。所以我們在1月就預料到了這種情況。

  • As you said before, specialty ingredients continued the recovery with the Decatur East plant back online. But of course, this plant was down for 18 months. So we are doing some plant stabilization, some driving productivity. You bring it first back on safety premises and then you try to do the optimization of the plant. So we are in that process.

    正如您之前所說,隨著迪凱特東工廠恢復生產,特種配料業務繼續復甦。當然,這家工廠停產了18個月。所以我們正在進行一些工廠穩定化改造,提高生產效率。首先要確保安全,然後再嘗試對工廠進行最佳化。所以我們正在經歷這個過程。

  • And at the same time, again, our customers move away after 18 months of being, we've not been able to supply fully. So as you said, we need to recover that, and we need to recover that prudently. But we would like to claim our share of the market back. So we are in that process. And I think that process is going well, but it's going to take some time. Animal Nutrition was a little bit soft with some pockets of softness, but also we have some one-off impact. But I think the trajectory overall of Animal year-over-year has been positive, and we expect that to continue.

    同時,我們的客戶在經營 18 個月後再次搬走,我們一直無法完全滿足他們的供貨需求。正如你所說,我們需要恢復這筆資金,而且我們需要謹慎地恢復這筆資金。但我們希望重新奪回我們的市場份額。所以我們正在經歷這個過程。我認為這個過程進展順利,但這需要一些時間。動物營養方面有些鬆懈,存在一些鬆懈之處,但也存在一些一次性影響。但我認為,動物業務的整體發展軌跡逐年向好,我們預期這種情況會持續下去。

  • So I would say when we look at '26 as the overall year, and I can't call it by quarter, but overall year, so we will have still strength in flavors for both geographies. We also have continued to grow in Asia Pacific in flavors, which we had a record year in 2025. We're going to see a good demand in biotics. And we're going to continue with our margin improvement quest in Animal Nutrition. So that's where we see the business. So yes, we see growth for operating profit into the business in 2026 versus 2025.

    所以,如果我們把 2026 年看作整個年度,我不能按季度來判斷,而是看整個年度,那麼我們在兩個地區的口味方面仍然會保持強勁勢頭。我們在亞太地區的口味業務也持續成長,2025 年更是創下了紀錄。生物製品市場將會有良好的需求。我們將繼續在動物營養領域追求利潤率提升。這就是我們看到商機的地方。所以,是的,我們預計 2026 年該業務的營業利潤將比 2025 年有所成長。

  • Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And just a tactical Ben, for you is, as I've mentioned in my prepared remarks, when you're doing your modeling, Ian, Ishmael and team have done a great job with the Alltech JV that has gone live. So just make sure that from a revenue perspective, you won't see the revenue. The profit for 2026 is pretty much where it was as this JV takes hold. So it's a part of what Juan mentioned, which is moving to higher segments or higher product mix in the Animal Nutrition business.

    還有一點要注意的是,正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的,當你進行建模時,Ian、Ishmael 和他們的團隊在 Alltech 合資企業上做得非常出色,該合資企業已經上線。所以,從收入的角度來看,你絕對看不到任何收入。隨著合資企業的逐步開展,2026 年的利潤基本上與之前持平。所以,這和胡安提到的情況類似,那就是在動物營養業務中轉型為更高的細分市場或更高的產品組合。

  • Benjamin Theurer - Analyst

    Benjamin Theurer - Analyst

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Heather Jones, Heather Jones Research.

    Heather Jones,Heather Jones 研究公司。

  • Heather Jones - Analyst

    Heather Jones - Analyst

  • Good morning. Thanks for the question. I wanted to, my question is on crush. And I just, it's a big picture question. So I followed you guys for over a decade and just have been sort of puzzled by ADM's performance during '25, particularly Q2, Q3 and Q4. [You all's] performance relative to public comps has been, the gap has been much wider than historically and has been to the downside. And my understanding is that your runtime issues have improved in '25 and that you all have done a better job on the operations execution side. So just wondering, is there a change in how you're hedging?

    早安.謝謝你的提問。我想問的是關於暗戀的問題。我覺得,這是一個關乎大局的問題。我已經關注你們十多年了,但一直對ADM在2025年的表現感到困惑,尤其是第二、三、四季。你們相對於上市競爭對手的業績,差距比以往大得多,而且是向下的。據我了解,你們的運行時問題在 '25 版本中有所改善,而且你們在操作執行方面也做得更好了。所以我想問一下,你們的對沖策略有改變嗎?

  • Or just, because obviously, the biggest influencer of your results over the next couple of years is going to be RVO policy, and it's going to affect crush most dramatically. And so I'm just trying to get a handle on how we should be modeling how ADM will benefit. So if you could just help me understand that disparity, it would be very much appreciated. Thank you.

    或者說,很顯然,未來幾年對你業績影響最大的因素將是 RVO 政策,而且它將對壓榨產生最顯著的影響。所以我現在只是想弄清楚我們應該如何模擬ADM將如何受益。所以,如果您能幫我理解這種差異,我將非常感激。謝謝。

  • Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thank you for the question, Heather. Of course, we spend a lot of time in Ag Services and Oilseeds, which is our largest business. I don't see anything clearly from a commercial perspective that has changed for us to justify what you described.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,希瑟。當然,我們花了很多時間在農業服務和油籽業務上,這是我們最大的業務。從商業角度來看,我看不出有什麼明顯的改變足以證明你所描述的情況是合理的。

  • I would say the main difference since I've been running this for so many years is our manufacturing costs have gone up, not actually the performance, as you said, all line time, I think, has recovered, and that's going well. But our cost in terms of energy or manpower or contractors and things like that is higher than it used to be, and we're working hard to reduce that.

    我認為,自從我經營這家公司以來,最大的不同是我們的製造成本上升了,而不是性能,正如你所說,所有的生產線時間,我認為都已恢復,而且進展順利。但是,我們在能源、人力、承包商等方面的成本比以前高了,我們正在努力降低這些成本。

  • But that's probably something that I can point out. And as I said, we have good plans to do that. Things have become a little more expensive to build. We have a large footprint, a little bit more expensive to repair, and labor has been more expensive, especially in North America. I would say if you look at our, the cost of our plants in the rest of the world versus North America, North America has become a little bit more expensive over the last few years, I would say, post-COVID.

    但這或許是我可以指出的一點。正如我所說,我們有很好的計劃來實現這一點。建造東西的成本稍微上漲了一些。我們的佔地面積很大,維修成本也略高,而且人工成本也更高,尤其是在北美。我認為,如果你看看我們在世界其他地區和北美工廠的成本,你會發現,在過去幾年裡,尤其是在新冠疫情之後,北美工廠的成本略微上漲了一些。

  • I got the impression, not exact science, that post-COVID, the rest of the world came back a little bit more to the pre-COVID, if you will, cost standards, while North America will still have a little bit more of that. And of course, it's not fact, but we need to find that productivity improvements, and we have plans to accomplish that.

    我的感覺是(雖然不是確切的科學),新冠疫情后,世界其他地區的物價水平有所回升,接近新冠疫情前的標準,而北美地區仍將保持這種水平。當然,這並非事實,但我們需要找到提高生產力的方法,而我們已經制定了實現這一目標的計劃。

  • Heather Jones - Analyst

    Heather Jones - Analyst

  • Thank you. Sorry.

    謝謝。對不起。

  • Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • If you don't mind, I'll add one more. Heather, just as you think about the cost out, the $500 million to the $700 million that we've talked about, and we started that work in 2025, as Juan mentioned, one of the big items in that unlock is manufacturing cost productivity. And that's what the team has plans to keep driving it. They've made progress in '25, and we'll continue to make progress in '26 and beyond.

    如果你不介意的話,我再加一個。Heather,正如你考慮成本時,我們討論過的 5 億到 7 億美元,我們從 2025 年開始這項工作,正如 Juan 提到的,解鎖的關鍵之一是提高製造成本和生產力。而這正是團隊計劃繼續前進的方向。他們在 2025 年取得了進步,我們將在 2026 年及以後繼續取得進步。

  • Heather Jones - Analyst

    Heather Jones - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you so much.

    好的。太感謝了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Strelzik, BMO Capital Markets.

    Andrew Strelzik,BMO資本市場。

  • Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

    Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

  • Great, thank you for the question. Good morning. I wanted to go back to the guidance and, in particular, your assumptions on the higher end of the range. And I appreciate some of the uncertainties around timing and magnitude related to the RVO. But can you just share a little more specifically what you've assumed from a crush margin perspective and maybe an improvement timing perspective on the high end of the range? I guess, what I'm really trying to get at is isolating kind of post-RVO EPS run rate implied by your guidance at the high end versus kind of given in the first part. Thank you.

    太好了,謝謝你的提問。早安.我想回到指導意見,特別是您對範圍上限的假設。我理解RVO事件在時間和強度方面存在一些不確定性。但您能否更具體地分享一下,從壓榨利潤率的角度來看,以及從改進時機的角度來看,您在高極限範圍內做了哪些假設?我想,我真正想表達的是,如何將您給出的高端指導所暗示的 RVO 後 EPS 運行率與第一部分中給出的運行率區分開來。謝謝。

  • Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah, Andrew, as Juan mentioned and as we've said in our prepared remarks too, at the end of the day, this is all going to depend on two things. One is what happens with the RVO guidance, what is in the RVO guidance, what's the timing of the RVO guidance and what's the adoption of the market range. So it's very hard to sit here right now and pinpoint exactly a number that says when and how much crush margins are going to be because it's dependent on so many factors.

    是的,安德魯,正如胡安所提到的,也正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所說,歸根結底,這一切都取決於兩件事。一是 RVO 指導方針的實施情況,RVO 指導方針的內容是什麼,RVO 指導方針的發佈時間以及市場範圍的採用情況。所以現在很難坐在這裡準確地指出一個數字,說明壓榨利潤何時以及會是多少,因為這取決於許多因素。

  • But what we have assumed in our higher end of the range, and that's basically where we are sitting right now, one is, of course, the timing of RVO and whether the adoption of RVO happens faster and does the, and crush margins go up because of that. We have also assumed that the strengthening consumer demand, so if consumer demand strengthens, which is both for starches, sweeteners, overall packaged goods and nutrition, as well as demand for biofuels, could definitely help us out.

    但我們在較高預期範圍內所做的假設(基本上也是我們目前所處的階段)當然包括:RVO 的時機,以及 RVO 的採用是否會更快,以及壓榨利潤是否會因此而上升。我們也假設消費者需求不斷增強,因此,如果消費者需求增強,無論是對澱粉、甜味劑、整體包裝食品和營養品的需求,還是對生物燃料的需求,都肯定會對我們有所幫助。

  • We have also talked about saying how does RINs move up. So we'll have to watch how RINs move up. And Manav asked the same question in RINs. Board crush has moved up already based on some of the commentary out. So board crush has gone up.

    我們也討論過如何說明 RIN 等級是如何提升的。所以我們需要密切注意RINs的走勢。Manav 在 RINs 中也提出了同樣的問題。根據一些評論來看,Board crush 的股價已經上漲了。所以滑板壓碎率上升了。

  • You can, depending on the NIR, it has gone up nearly $0.40, $0.50 for, sorry, for December of 2026, that's board crush. At the end of the day, it all has to translate back to cash margins. And so therefore, that's something that [we will absolutely do] and watching it.

    根據 NIR 的情況,它已經上漲了近 0.40 美元、0.50 美元,抱歉,到 2026 年 12 月,這簡直是暴跌。歸根究底,這一切都要轉化為現金利潤。所以,這是[我們一定會做的],我們會密切注意。

  • So the market trends that have happened, these are all good early indicators, all early indicators that says we are going to have a constructive environment. But as Juan mentioned, we are being cautious and making sure that we are giving you both the high end and the low end of the range. Where, at the low end of the range, we have focused more on what we control.

    所以,目前出現的市場趨勢都是很好的早期指標,這些早期指標都顯示我們將擁有一個建設性的環境。但正如胡安所提到的,我們很謹慎,確保我們既能為您提供高端產品,也能提供低端產品。在低端領域,我們更加重視我們能夠控制的因素。

  • It's better than where we ended 2025. Continued progress on our cost-out mission, continue to drive where we believe that Starches & Sweeteners softness gets offset by ethanol margins and policy benefits, continued execution in Nutrition.

    這比我們2025年底的情況要好。在降低成本方面繼續取得進展,繼續推進我們認為澱粉和甜味劑業務疲軟可以透過乙醇利潤和政策收益來抵消的領域,繼續在營養領域執行相關政策。

  • So therefore, put all together, Andrew, unfortunately, we are just giving you a wider range because it's all going to depend on ultimately where demand is and then where crush margins go. As the quarters get more clearer and as guidance comes out, we'll be definitely there to update you all.

    所以,總而言之,安德魯,很遺憾,我們只能給你一個更廣泛的選擇範圍,因為最終一切都取決於需求在哪裡,以及壓榨利潤率如何。隨著季度情勢逐漸明朗,相關指導方針也陸續出台,我們一定會及時向大家更新資訊。

  • Just last piece of housekeeping advice. As you know, we don't predict mark-to-market. Mark-to-market within the quarters could move depending on which markets we hedge, when we hedge it, as well as what prices turn out to be as of the end of the quarter. So please do factor that in from a timing perspective as you all think about it. Okay?

    最後一條家事小貼士。如您所知,我們不預測市值。按季度計價可能會發生變化,具體取決於我們對哪些市場進行避險、何時進行避險,以及季度末的價格是多少。所以,請大家在考慮時間安排的時候,務必把這一點考慮進去。好的?

  • Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

    Andrew Strelzik - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much.

    偉大的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Pooran Sharma, Stephens Inc.

    Pooran Sharma,Stephens Inc.

  • Pooran Sharma - Analyst

    Pooran Sharma - Analyst

  • Great, thanks for the question. I wanted to ask about just the weaker Starches & Sweetener demand we've been hearing concerns related to GLP-1 adoption, and that's been leading a lot of customers to move to spot rather than forward buying. But we've also been hearing just maybe tariff pressures causing producers to raise retail prices and that impacting demand. Just wanted to get a sense as to kind of what you're seeing and get your thoughts on to what's driving some of the softness here.

    太好了,謝謝你的提問。我想問關於澱粉和甜味劑需求疲軟的問題,我們一直聽到一些關於 GLP-1 採用情況的擔憂,這導致許多客戶轉向現貨購買而不是遠期購買。但我們也聽到一些說法,認為關稅壓力可能導致生產者提高零售價格,進而影響需求。我只是想了解你看到的是什麼,以及你對造成這種柔和感的原因有什麼看法。

  • Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thank you, Pooran, for the question. Listen, I think it's a combination of everything. There are, we go, when we produce what we produce in sweeteners, we go to so many applications that touches many, many end uses, products and also channels. I would say, certainly, when people adopt GLP-1s, we see the consumption drops a little bit as a family. That stabilized, if you will, after six months, but also shift a little bit what they consume, going more into proteins and maybe less savory snacks or sweet snacks.

    是的。謝謝你的提問,Pooran。我覺得這是各種因素綜合作用的結果。我們生產的甜味劑產品用途廣泛,涉及眾多終端用途、產品和通路。我敢說,當人們開始服用 GLP-1 類藥物時,我們會看到家庭的消費量略有下降。六個月後,情況趨於穩定,但他們的飲食習慣也發生了一些變化,更多地攝取蛋白質,而鹹味零食或甜味零食則有所減少。

  • I think there is a consumer desire to move away from ultra-processed foods to a certain degree, at least initially. And I think we're seeing part of that. It is true that although inflation for food have dropped, the actual level of prices have not dropped for some of these products. And we have seen some of our customers trying different price points to test that elasticity. But prices remained a little bit high. And I think when the consumer see shakiness, if you will, in the labor markets, they start to become more prudent about what they do and they become more sensitive to pricing.

    我認為,消費者在某種程度上,至少在初期,有遠離超加工食品的願望。我認為我們正在看到其中的一部分。雖然食品通膨率有所下降,但其中一些產品的實際價格水準並沒有下降。我們看到一些客戶嘗試不同的價格點來測試這種彈性。但價格仍然略高。我認為,當消費者看到勞動市場出現不穩定時,他們會變得更加謹慎,對價格也更加敏感。

  • So I think it's a combination of things. We are very blessed to have the ability to make many, many products from corn and we are pleased to have a marketing team looking at industrial applications, whether it's in mining or packaging, on construction and cosmetics and others. And I think that has helped us to soften some of that. But the reality is, yeah, liquid sweeteners volumes are down, maybe in the range of 5% to 7%. And we're fighting hard to offset that.

    所以我認為這是多種因素共同作用的結果。我們非常幸運能夠利用玉米生產很多很多產品,我們也很高興擁有一支行銷團隊,致力於研究工業應用,無論是在採礦、包裝、建築、化妝品等領域。我認為這有助於我們緩和其中一些問題。但現實情況是,液體甜味劑的銷量確實下降了,可能下降了 5% 到 7%。我們正在努力扭轉這種局面。

  • Part of that offset for 2026 we think will come from 45Zs and ethanol margins. And that will keep probably Carb Solutions, the way we think about it, relatively flat year-over-year. But we have an intense focus on protecting that volume and shifting into other applications that may not be exposed to the same trends.

    我們認為,2026 年的部分抵銷作用將來自 45Z 和乙醇利潤。這樣一來,我們認為的碳水化合物解決方案可能會保持相對平穩的同比水平。但我們專注於保護現有業務量,並轉向其他可能不會受到相同趨勢影響的應用領域。

  • Pooran Sharma - Analyst

    Pooran Sharma - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you very much.

    好的。非常感謝。

  • Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Palmer, JPMorgan.

    湯姆‧帕爾默,摩根大通。

  • Thomas Palmer - Analyst

    Thomas Palmer - Analyst

  • Good morning and thanks for the question. I wanted to maybe just clarify a few guidance items quickly. Just first, I think in the past, you've given dollar amounts for corporate and then percentages for kind of expected tax rate. Apologies if I missed it. I don't think we got it today.

    早安,謝謝你的提問。我想快速澄清幾個指導要點。首先,我認為您過去曾給出企業所得稅的美元金額,以及預期稅率的百分比。如果我錯過了,請見諒。我覺得我們今天沒收到。

  • And then on AS&O, a lot of discussion, I guess, on the crushing piece. But RPO and Ag Services, any framing of kind of relative to what we saw in 2026 where they might trend? Thank you.

    然後,在 AS&O 上,我想,大家對壓碎那部分進行了很多討論。但是,RPO 和農業服務,有沒有辦法根據我們看到的 2026 年的發展趨勢來建立一個框架呢?謝謝。

  • Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So just, you'll have to remind me all your questions, but I'll try, if my memory is right, Tom. One is tax rate. So adjusted ETR or expected ETR for 2026 is between 18% to 20%. On Corporate, as I've said, Corporate will be higher on a year-over-year basis, driven by a few facts. One is the improvement in seg OP. Some of that we're going to use to reinvest back in the business in R&D and digital, number one.

    所以,你得提醒我你的所有問題,但我會盡力,如果我沒記錯的話,湯姆。一是稅率。因此,2026 年調整後 ETR 或預期 ETR 在 18% 到 20% 之間。正如我之前所說,受以下幾個因素影響,企業支出將較去年同期上升。一是段 OP 的改進。我們將把其中一部分資金重新投資於業務的研發和數位化,這是第一點。

  • Number two, we will continue to see the impact of a lower incentive compensation in 2025, that won't repeat in 2026. And three is we're going to continue to drive cost out as we have committed to keep driving cost on Corporate. So that's Corporate.

    第二,2025 年我們將繼續看到較低的激勵性薪酬的影響,但 2026 年不會重演這種情況。第三,我們將繼續降低成本,因為我們已經承諾繼續降低公司成本。這就是公司層面。

  • When you think about Ag Services and Oilseeds, I think that was your third question, as we have said before, there's a wide range that could happen between Ag Services and Oilseeds, again, depends on RVO clarity. What we have done, Tom, is at the low end of the range said that assuming there's a different of RVO policy or US biofuel policy, we see margins to be flat. And then so that's factored into the low end of the range.

    當你考慮農業服務和油籽時,我想這是你的第三個問題,正如我們之前所說,農業服務和油籽之間可能會出現很大的變化,這再次取決於 RVO 的清晰度。湯姆,我們所做的,是處於範圍的低端。我們假設 RVO 政策或美國生物燃料政策有所不同,我們認為利潤率將保持不變。因此,這被計入了該範圍的低端。

  • As Juan also mentioned from an Ag Services perspective, North American exports should be higher based on the policy clarity that we have got for, especially with China, where we should see higher volumes sold to China versus what we did in 2025. And then at the high end of the range, I already answered that question on different things to think through.

    正如胡安從農業服務角度所提到的那樣,根據我們目前所獲得的政策清晰度,北美出口應該會更高,尤其是在對華出口方面,我們應該會看到對華銷售量比 2025 年的水平更高。至於範圍的高端,我已經回答了這個問題,需要考慮不同的因素。

  • For the first quarter, I would say, again, crush margins based on the book that we already had, and we have publicly previously disclosed that too when Greg was on stage in another conference, that for Q1, we expect crush margins to be very similar to Q4 in crush margins.

    對於第一季度,我想再次強調,根據我們已有的訂單量,利潤率預計會與第四季度非常相似。在此之前,當格雷格在另一個會議上發言時,我們也公開披露過這一點。

  • For Q4, we have also disclosed, but just again as you're building your model, these crush margins include a recovery of Decatur East insurance proceeds of approximately $30 million. I think it's $32 million to be precise, that's in those crush margins. So hopefully I answered your questions, Tom. But if I missed something, let me know.

    對於第四季度,我們也已披露,但正如您在建立模型時所見,這些壓榨利潤率包括收回迪凱特東部保險賠償金約 3000 萬美元。我覺得準確來說是 3200 萬美元,這算是壓榨利潤的一部分。希望我解答了你的問題,湯姆。如果我遺漏了什麼,請告訴我。

  • Thomas Palmer - Analyst

    Thomas Palmer - Analyst

  • Thanks so much. Just on the RPO piece, thank you.

    非常感謝。關於RPO那部分,謝謝。

  • Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • When you say on the, oh, so what's outlook? Again, listen, at the end of the day, Juan's mentioned this on multiple calls, and so as the team. I think, Tom, it's going to come down to what is the demand for RPO. I think that's number one.

    當你說,哦,那麼前景如何?再說一遍,聽著,說到底,胡安在多次電話會議中都提到這一點,團隊也提到過。湯姆,我認為最終取決於RPO的需求。我認為那是第一點。

  • And number two, once RVOs come through, there's going to be a time lag between how much you start seeing in crush margins, what RINs do, and therefore, then, how does it incentivize producers to start manufacturing product again as consumers. So as of right now, I think that's all in our range. And it's all going to come down to what RVO policy turns out to be and what demand turns out.

    第二,一旦 RVO 生效,壓榨利潤率的提高、RIN 的作用以及激勵生產商重新開始生產產品的能力之間都會存在時間滯後。所以就目前而言,我認為這些都在我們的能力範圍之內。最終一切都將取決於 RVO 政策的最終走向以及市場需求的最終結果。

  • Thomas Palmer - Analyst

    Thomas Palmer - Analyst

  • Okay, thanks for all the detail.

    好的,謝謝你提供這麼詳細的資訊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Salvator Tiano, Bank of America.

    薩爾瓦托·蒂亞諾,美國銀行。

  • Salvator Tiano - Analyst

    Salvator Tiano - Analyst

  • Yes, thank you very much. I want to go back to essentially what happens once the RVOs are out, but taking a step back from explicit crush margins. So the high end of your guidance at $4.25, is it fair to say that it implies kind of starting in July, assuming, as you said, with a lag, you'll see the benefits in July in the high end, in the best case scenario, of perhaps $1.30 EPS per quarter? Is that kind of where the new earnings power is going? And obviously, if that is the case, does this mean that with no other change in your outlook on a full year run rate in 2027, we could see EPS in the low 5s? Is that kind of your big picture view here?

    是的,非常感謝。我想回到 RVO 退出後發生的事情,但要從明確的壓低幅度退一步。所以,您給出的每股收益上限為 4.25 美元,是否可以這樣理解:假設如您所說,存在一定的滯後性,那麼在最佳情況下,每股收益上限可能達到每季 1.30 美元,這意味著收益將在 7 月開始顯現?新增的收入能力會流向那裡嗎?顯然,如果情況真是如此,這是否意味著,在您對 2027 年全年運行率的預期沒有其他變化的情況下,我們可能會看到每股收益 (EPS) 約為 5 美元?這就是你對全局的看法嗎?

  • Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Monish Patolawala - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So Salvator, again, I think it comes down to it's right now very hard to predict exactly what that number turns out to be. As we have said, there are multiple factors at the high end. It's not just crush margins, which is definitely one factor that should help. The sooner we get the clarity and the more the demand is, as long as the cash margins are there, not just board crush, I think our team is ready to continue to execute to crush and hopefully take advantage of those margins.

    所以薩爾瓦托,我認為關鍵在於,現在很難準確預測這個數字最終會是多少。正如我們所說,高端市場受多種因素影響。不只是利潤率,這當然是一個有幫助的因素。我們越早明確情勢,需求越大,只要現金利潤空間足夠(不僅是董事會業績慘淡),我認為我們的團隊就準備好繼續執行,力爭取得佳績,並希望能夠利用這些利潤空間。

  • The other drivers in the high end of the range, we're also making sure customer demand or consumer demand remains strong. That's the second. And then third, as Juan mentioned, on Sweeteners & Starches and where ethanol margins. So there are multiple factors that have to go into place.

    對於高階車型的其他驅動因素,我們也在確保客戶需求或消費者需求保持強勁。這是第二個。第三,正如胡安所提到的,關於甜味劑和澱粉以及乙醇的利潤率。所以,這其中需要多種因素共同作用。

  • To answer your question on the long run, as Juan mentioned, there are five pillars that we think over the long run that should start helping us. And the company has taken 2025 to continue to be very prudent on cost, but also on cash and using that as a way to invest in these growth platforms that can create value over the long term for ADM.

    從長遠來看,正如胡安所提到的,我們認為有五大支柱從長遠來看應該可以幫助我們。該公司已將 2025 年視為繼續在成本和現金方面保持非常謹慎的態度,並將此作為投資於這些成長平台的一種方式,這些平台可以為 ADM 創造長期價值。

  • How that timing works out between '25 and '26 and '27 by quarter, sitting today, Salvator, it's unfair for us to be able to make that prediction because there's so many factors at play. But long term, as Juan mentioned, ADM's ability to keep growing, keep creating value, keep returning value to shareholders, whether in the form of dividend or other forms continues to remain a big keystone of our capital allocation policy and our thesis to return value to shareholders.

    薩爾瓦托,就目前的情況來看,我們很難預測 2025 年、2026 年和 2027 年每季的具體時間安排,因為有太多因素在起作用。但從長遠來看,正如胡安所提到的,ADM 持續成長、持續創造價值、持續為股東創造價值(無論是以股息還是其他形式)的能力,仍然是我們資本配置政策和為股東創造價值理念的重要基石。

  • Salvator Tiano - Analyst

    Salvator Tiano - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very much.

    偉大的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steven Haynes, Morgan Stanley.

    史蒂文‧海恩斯,摩根士丹利。

  • Steven Haynes - Analyst

    Steven Haynes - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning and thanks for taking my question. I wanted to come back to the Carb Solutions guide for the year. And maybe if you could just help us think a little bit about how your sweetener contracting season went or is progressing. And I guess kind of within your guide, how much of that weakness is related to maybe margin versus volume?

    嗨,早上好,謝謝你回答我的問題。我想回顧今年的碳水化合物解決方案指南。或許您能幫我們稍微談談您的甜味劑合約銷售季的進度嗎?我想在您的指南中,這種疲軟有多少是與利潤率而非成交量有關?

  • And then secondly, if you've included any kind of explicit uplift from 45Z or 45Q, if you're willing to quantify that, that would be helpful. Thank you.

    其次,如果你已經包含了 45Z 或 45Q 的任何明確的提升,如果你願意量化這一點,那將很有幫助。謝謝。

  • Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • So yes, Steven. Carb Solutions, the contract season went well. But as I said, with some softness in volume that, at the end of the day, impacts margin. I can't quantify exactly how much of this. As I told you before, we don't have this big cliffs of contracts anymore. So I think that it is a blend. But certainly versus other negotiations, it has been a little bit softer this year than others.

    是的,史蒂文。Carb Solutions公司,合約季節進展順利。但正如我所說,成交量略顯疲軟,最終會影響利潤率。我無法準確量化其中的具體金額。正如我之前告訴你的,我們現在不再有那麼多高不可攀的合約了。所以我認為這是一種混合體。但與其他談判相比,今年的談判氣氛肯定要緩和一些。

  • With regards to 45Z, there are many factors to consider, of course, to estimate the benefit. As you know, we need to think about the carbon intensity by plant, the prevailing wage issue, the amount of carbon we sequester during all these, the production volumes. And of course, we need to see how the industry will react in terms of pricing to all this 45Z.

    至於 45Z,當然有很多因素需要考慮,才能估算其益處。如您所知,我們需要考慮工廠的碳排放強度、現行工資問題、我們在所有這些過程中固碳的數量以及生產量。當然,我們也需要看看整個產業在定價方面會對 45Z 做出怎樣的反應。

  • We still don't have final guidance, but we know that this has cleared the White House Office of Budget. So we hope to hear from them soon. We think, when we put in our estimate, we think that it could be approximately $100 million. But as I said, just to give you a flavor, there are many variables. So take that with a grain of salt

    我們目前還沒有最終的指導意見,但我們知道這已經獲得了白宮預算辦公室的批准。所以我們希望盡快收到他們的消息。我們估算了一下,大概是 1 億美元左右。但正如我所說,為了讓你有個大致了解,其中有很多變數。所以,對此要有所保留。

  • Steven Haynes - Analyst

    Steven Haynes - Analyst

  • Thank you. Appreciate the color.

    謝謝。欣賞這種顏色。

  • Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Blair, TPH&Co.

    Matthew Blair,TPH&Co.

  • Matthew Blair - Analyst

    Matthew Blair - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much for squeezing me in here. You mentioned that you're expecting robust ethanol exports to continue in 2026. I think India already hit its 20% ethanol blend rate target. So could you talk about other markets where you see incremental opportunities for ethanol exports from the US?

    偉大的。非常感謝你抽空讓我過來。您提到預計2026年乙醇出口將持續保持強勁勢頭。我認為印度已經達到了20%的乙醇摻混比例目標。那麼,您能否談談您認為美國乙醇出口在其他哪些市場有成長機會?

  • And then also, do you have any thoughts on the likelihood of E15? And if that does pass, is there any sort of range or any sort of guide on the potential uplift to your Carb Solutions business? Thanks.

    另外,您對E15的可能性有什麼看法?如果這種情況真的發生,對於您的 Carb Solutions 業務可能帶來的提升,是否有任何範圍或指導方針?謝謝。

  • Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

    Juan Luciano - Chairman of the Board, President, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Thank you, Matthew. Listen, the US continues to be very competitive in ethanol in world markets, and I think it's certainly more competitive than Brazil. And there are many, many countries that, with the need for more energy for all the AI that you see and all that, there is a strong desire of removing a little bit of the burden of transportation into the oil segment.

    是的。謝謝你,馬修。聽著,美國在世界乙醇市場上的競爭力依然很強,而且我認為它肯定比巴西更有競爭力。而且,隨著人工智慧等技術的發展,許多國家對能源的需求日益增長,因此它們強烈希望減輕石油運輸領域的負擔。

  • So bringing biofuels is important for sustainability perspective, but also to enlarge the energy pool. So we're seeing countries, and anecdotically, like Vietnam is going to launch some, but there are, like Japan is, have it in the forecast. So there are many countries queuing to do that.

    因此,引進生質燃料對於永續發展而言非常重要,同時也有助於擴大能源儲備。所以我們看到一些國家,例如越南,即將推出一些產品,還有一些國家,例如日本,已經將其列入了計劃。所以有很多國家都在排隊等著這樣做。

  • The blending rates could go high. I always give the anecdote that when I was living in Brazil, like 30 years ago, we were already driving cars with 20-something percent ethanol, and they were American-made cars, if you will, by brand. So that can be done.

    混合比例可能會很高。我總是講這樣一個軼事:大約 30 年前,我住在巴西的時候,我們開的汽車已經含有 20% 以上的乙醇,而且從品牌上來說,它們都是美國製造的汽車。所以這是可以做到的。

  • So whether we can go E15 or not, it's a matter of the industry to align to that to have only one pipeline and only one, but there are no issues to move into E15. So we think that eventually, we're going to get there. Again, timing is the key, and I'm not into forecasting timing. So we feel very good about that.

    所以,我們能否採用 E15 汽油,取決於整個產業是否願意調整策略,只保留一條輸油管,但目前來看,採用 E15 汽油沒有任何問題。所以我們認為最終我們會實現這個目標。再次強調,時機是關鍵,但我並不擅長預測時機。所以我們對這一點感到非常滿意。

  • It continues to be a very cheap oxygenate. I mean oxygenates comparable to that trade for like maybe $2.90, and ethanol is, well, like $1.60 or something like that. So it continues to be very competitive. So we're optimistic into that.

    它仍然是一種非常便宜的含氧化合物。我的意思是,含氧化合物的價格大概是 2.90 美元,而乙醇的價格大概是 1.60 美元左右。所以競爭依然非常激烈。所以我們對此持樂觀態度。

  • We also have plans that we'll have the opportunity to provide low carbon intensity to that based on our carbon capture and sequestration. And I think that will bring other avenues for ethanol, potentially SAF and other things, not only here but outside the world. So I think we are positive about that.

    我們還計劃利用碳捕獲和封存技術,為該專案提供低碳強度。我認為這將為乙醇、永續航空燃料 (SAF) 以及其他產品帶來其他發展途徑,不僅在國內,而且在世界其他地方也是如此。所以我認為我們對此持樂觀態度。

  • I think it speaks a little bit, because at times, biofuels become less of an impact to us, at times like now becomes more important. It speaks a lot about the strength of our diversified model, that we are global and very diversified portfolio, that allows us to do things like invest for growth while we are able to increase the dividend like we increased this year, even at times in which you can consider this almost like trough conditions from an industry perspective. So I think it shows the strength of our model that provides a very strong base during the tough times.

    我認為這說明了一些問題,因為有時生物燃料對我們的影響會減弱,而像現在這樣的時候,生物燃料就顯得更加重要了。這充分說明了我們多元化模式的優勢,我們擁有全球化且高度多元化的投資組合,這使我們能夠進行諸如投資增長之類的操作,同時還能像今年一樣提高股息,即使在從行業角度來看,這幾乎可以被視為低谷時期。所以我認為這顯示了我們模式的優勢,它能在艱難時期提供非常堅實的基礎。

  • And now you're all asking questions about what could be the upside, and we would like to ride to the upside. And all we can do is improve our facilities to be able to run fully when that times come and being able to take a full advantage of the market opportunities or the regulation opportunities that will be presented to us. So we've been very satisfied how we handle the cash and the increase of dividends over the last two years. They were tough market conditions. And now we are ready to ride the upper side of the cycle, if you will.

    現在你們都在問可能會有什麼好處,而我們希望能夠抓住這些好處。我們所能做的就是改善我們的設施,以便在時機到來時能夠全面運轉,並充分利用擺在我們面前的市場機會或監管機會。因此,我們對過去兩年現金流管理和股息成長非常滿意。當時的市場環境十分艱辛。現在,我們準備好迎接週期的上行階段了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Great. Thank you, Mathew. We have no further questions. I'll hand back to Kate Walsh for any closing comments

    偉大的。謝謝你,馬修。我們沒有其他問題了。接下來,我將把麥克風交還給凱特·沃爾什,請她做最後的總結發言。

  • Kate Walsh - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Kate Walsh - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you all for joining the call today. We appreciate your continued interest and support of ADM and wish you a great rest of your day.

    感謝各位今天參加電話會議。感謝您一直以來對ADM的關注與支持,並祝福您今天餘下的時間愉快。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This now concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect your lines.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與,現在可以斷開連結了。