Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the ADM Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎來到 ADM 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，正在錄製此電話會議。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Megan Britt, Vice President, Investor Relations for ADM. Ms. Britt, you may begin.

現在，我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，ADM 投資者關係副總裁梅根布里特 (Megan Britt)。 Britt 女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Hello, and welcome to the fourth quarter earnings webcast for ADM. Starting tomorrow, a replay of this webcast will be available on our Investor Relations website.

謝謝你。大家好，歡迎收看 ADM 第四季度收益網絡廣播。從明天開始，我們的投資者關係網站上將提供該網絡廣播的重播。

Please turn to Slide 2, which says that some of our comments and materials constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risks and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the presentation. To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events.

請轉到幻燈片 2，其中說我們的一些評論和材料構成前瞻性陳述，反映管理層當前的觀點和對未來經濟狀況、行業狀況、公司業績和財務結果的估計。這些陳述和材料基於許多受風險和不確定因素影響的假設和因素。 ADM 在其提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中提供了有關可能導致實際結果與演示文稿中的結果大不相同的假設和因素的額外信息。在適用法律允許的範圍內，ADM 不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

On today's webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will discuss our full year accomplishments and share detail on our priorities for 2023. Our Chief Financial Officer, Vikram Luthar, will review the drivers of our financial performance at the segment level and review our cash generation and capital allocation results. Juan will have closing remarks regarding our planning framework for 2023, and then he and Vikram will take your questions.

在今天的網絡廣播中，我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Juan Luciano 將討論我們全年的成就，並分享我們 2023 年優先事項的詳細信息。我們的首席財務官 Vikram Luthar 將回顧我們在細分市場層面的財務業績驅動因素和查看我們的現金生成和資本配置結果。 Juan 將就我們 2023 年的規劃框架發表結束語，然後他和 Vikram 將回答您的問題。

Please turn to Slide 3. I'll now turn the call over to Juan.

請轉到幻燈片 3。我現在將電話轉給 Juan。

Thank you, Megan. This morning, we reported very strong fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.93. Adjusted segment operating profit was $1.7 billion. Our full year adjusted EPS of $7.85, adjusted segment operating profit of $6.6 billion and trailing 4-quarter average adjusted ROIC of 13.6% demonstrate once again the great work of our global team of dedicated colleagues who manage unprecedented market disruptions to deliver an outstanding year.

謝謝你，梅根。今天早上，我們報告了非常強勁的第四季度調整後每股收益 1.93 美元。調整後的部門營業利潤為 17 億美元。我們全年調整後的每股收益為 7.85 美元，調整後的部門營業利潤為 66 億美元，過去 4 季度調整後的平均投入資本回報率為 13.6%，再次證明了我們全球敬業團隊的出色工作，他們管理了前所未有的市場混亂，取得了出色的一年。

Our full year operating cash flow before working capital was $5.3 billion. This strong cash flow and the disciplined management of our balance sheet allow us to continue to reinvest in our business, with $1.3 billion in capital expenditures and return cash to shareholders. In total, we returned $2.3 billion to our shareholders in the forms of dividends and share repurchases in 2022. Next slide, please.

我們扣除營運資金前的全年運營現金流為 53 億美元。這種強勁的現金流和我們資產負債表的嚴格管理使我們能夠繼續對我們的業務進行再投資，資本支出為 13 億美元，並將現金返還給股東。 2022 年，我們總共以股息和股票回購的形式向股東返還了 23 億美元。請看下一張幻燈片。

With the expectation of continued strong cash flow, today, we are announcing a 12.5% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.45 per share. We are proud of our record of 91 years of uninterrupted dividends and 50 consecutive years of annual dividend increases. And I'd like to thank our shareholders for their continued support of ADM. Next slide, please.

鑑於對持續強勁現金流的預期，今天，我們宣布將季度股息增加 12.5% 至每股 0.45 美元。我們為 91 年不間斷派息和連續 50 年年度股息增長的記錄感到自豪。我要感謝我們的股東對 ADM 的持續支持。請換下一張幻燈片。

When I examine 2022, our ability to drive structural growth in earnings and improvement in ROIC was supported by key strategic accomplishments across the enterprise, particularly the progress we made on our productivity and innovation objectives. Our productivity work in 2022 included enhancing our operational resilience, including through stabilizing our plant operations and streamlining our operating systems. In order to meet growing customer demand and drive efficiencies, we delivered multiple projects to enhance our operational footprint, from modernization to improving our scheduled downtime to capacity expansions. We completed our Marshall, Minnesota modernization, opened a new mill house in Clinton, completed our Quincy refinery expansion and improved output and yields at our Rondonopolis diesel plant in Brazil.

當我審視 2022 年時，我們推動收入結構性增長和 ROIC 改善的能力得到了整個企業關鍵戰略成就的支持，尤其是我們在生產力和創新目標方面取得的進展。我們在 2022 年的生產力工作包括增強我們的運營彈性，包括通過穩定我們的工廠運營和簡化我們的操作系統。為了滿足不斷增長的客戶需求並提高效率，我們交付了多個項目來增強我們的運營足跡，從現代化到改善我們的計劃停機時間再到產能擴張。我們完成了明尼蘇達州馬歇爾的現代化改造，在克林頓開設了一家新工廠，完成了昆西煉油廠擴建，並提高了巴西朗多諾波利斯柴油廠的產量和產量。

We also continued to optimize our North American milling footprint. As you know, we also introduced a new billion-dollar challenge in 2022. There is no clearer demonstration of how our colleagues and culture are driving returns than the fact that thousands of ADM team members from around the globe took the initiative, stepped up and identified opportunities that unlocked more than $1.6 billion in cash in 2022.

我們還繼續優化我們在北美的製粉足跡。如您所知，我們還在 2022 年推出了一項新的十億美元挑戰。沒有比來自全球各地的數千名 ADM 團隊成員主動、加強和支持我們的同事和文化如何推動回報更清楚的證明了。確定了在 2022 年釋放超過 16 億美元現金的機會。

On innovation, our accomplishments include a focus on capturing the benefits of organic growth investments and M&A as we continue to get closer to our customers and extend our capabilities to meet growing global demand for our products. Our Nutrition business continued to outpace the industry, with 18% constant currency revenue growth for the full year. We delivered an impressive 26% year-over-year revenue growth in BioSolutions. The portfolio of acquisitions we made in the prior year continued to deliver OP above our financial projections.

在創新方面，我們的成就包括專注於獲取有機增長投資和併購的好處，因為我們繼續拉近與客戶的距離並擴展我們的能力以滿足全球對我們產品不斷增長的需求。我們的營養業務繼續跑贏行業，全年貨幣收入增長 18%。我們在 BioSolutions 的收入同比增長了 26%，令人印象深刻。我們在前一年進行的收購組合繼續提供高於我們財務預測的 OP。

And we advanced targeted production capacity expansions to meet growing customer demand. We announced expansions of our alternative protein capability in Decatur, Illinois, and starch production in Marshall, Minnesota. We completed our alternative protein expansion in Serbia, and are about to launch our expanded probiotic capacity in Valencia, Spain. And we continue to expect our joint venture crush and refining facility in North Dakota to be operational by this year's harvest.

我們推進有針對性的產能擴張，以滿足不斷增長的客戶需求。我們宣布擴大我們在伊利諾斯州迪凱特的替代蛋白質產能和在明尼蘇達州馬歇爾的澱粉生產。我們完成了在塞爾維亞的替代蛋白質擴張，並即將在西班牙巴倫西亞啟動我們擴大的益生菌產能。我們繼續預計我們在北達科他州的合資壓榨和精煉設施將在今年的收成前投入運營。

Slide 6, please. Now let's look ahead. We have a robust plan for driving enduring value creation in 2023 and beyond. In productivity, our work has a common theme: changing the way we work by standardizing, digitizing and automating our manufacturing plants and our offices alike. I previously mentioned our successful Marshall modernization. That was the blueprint for our wider work to unlock value across our production footprint through enhanced automation, more sophisticated control systems and the increased use of analytics. We have now approved the scope for the first 2 years of the program, encompassing 18 manufacturing facilities. We continue to expect double-digit returns from this important initiative.

請播放幻燈片 6。現在讓我們展望未來。我們有一個強有力的計劃來推動 2023 年及以後的持久價值創造。在生產力方面，我們的工作有一個共同的主題：通過標準化、數字化和自動化我們的製造工廠和辦公室來改變我們的工作方式。我之前提到過我們成功的馬歇爾現代化。這是我們更廣泛工作的藍圖，通過增強自動化、更複雜的控制系統和增加分析的使用，在我們的生產足跡中釋放價值。我們現在已經批准了該計劃前兩年的範圍，包括 18 個製造工廠。我們繼續期待這一重要舉措帶來兩位數的回報。

And we are continuing to advance 1ADM, which is enabling us to improve our processes and expand capabilities across the value chain. 2022 was an important year for our 1ADM business transformation. We completed several rollouts, and we are seeing benefits in areas ranging from indirect procurement to go-to-market strategies to grain merchandising. In 2023, we will continue to expand the breadth and scope of this work, which is empowering our businesses to deliver profitable revenue growth and higher margins.

我們將繼續推進 1ADM，這使我們能夠改進我們的流程並擴展整個價值鏈的能力。 2022 年是我們 1ADM 業務轉型的重要一年。我們完成了幾次部署，我們看到了從間接採購到上市戰略再到穀物銷售等領域的好處。 2023 年，我們將繼續擴大這項工作的廣度和範圍，這將使我們的企業能夠實現盈利性收入增長和更高的利潤率。

Next, we are focused on maintaining our structural growth momentum via our innovation work. As you may recall, we've spoken in the past about our strategic growth platforms: sustainability, differentiated grain, alternative proteins, biosolutions, microbial solutions and microbiome modification. These growth opportunities grow -- go through a natural evolution. When new, we launch them at the corporate level. As they mature, they become more embedded in our businesses. Differentiated grain is now formally part of our Ag Services and Oilseeds segment's everyday work. BioSolutions is growing within Carbohydrate Solutions. Alternative proteins and microbiome are pillars of Nutrition.

接下來，我們將專注於通過創新工作保持結構性增長勢頭。您可能還記得，我們過去曾談到我們的戰略增長平台：可持續性、差異化穀物、替代蛋白質、生物解決方案、微生物解決方案和微生物組改造。這些增長機會不斷增長——經歷自然演變。當新的時候，我們在公司層面推出它們。隨著他們的成熟，他們越來越融入我們的業務。差異化穀物現已正式成為我們農業服務和油籽部門日常工作的一部分。 BioSolutions 在 Carbohydrate Solutions 中成長。替代蛋白質和微生物組是營養的支柱。

With these efforts maturing in the businesses, we are able to focus on other opportunities. One of the most important is decarbonization, which is a critical component of our sustainability growth platform and is driving the evolution of our Carbohydrate Solutions business. Our goal is to reduce the carbon intensity of our assets and value chain in order to be the preferred partner in low-carbon intensity feedstocks for a growing demand base.

隨著這些努力在業務中的成熟，我們能夠專注於其他機會。其中最重要的一項是脫碳，這是我們可持續發展平台的重要組成部分，正在推動我們碳水化合物解決方案業務的發展。我們的目標是降低我們資產和價值鏈的碳強度，以便成為滿足不斷增長的需求基礎的低碳強度原料的首選合作夥伴。

We have made several announcements to mark milestones towards this goal in recent years, including our regenerative agriculture efforts, which enrolled 1 million unique acres over the past year; our Strive 35 goals; our initiatives to connect and expand our carbon capture and storage capabilities; and our heat and energy project indicator. We're looking at multiple other pathways to reducing our carbon intensity, like more sustainable energy sources for our facilities. And our efforts aren't just in the U.S. We have plans for other regions as well, including some EMEA projects we hope to speak about in the future.

近年來，我們已經發布了幾項公告來標誌著實現這一目標的里程碑，包括我們的再生農業工作，在過去一年中註冊了 100 萬英畝的獨特土地；我們的 35 個目標；我們連接和擴展我們的碳捕獲和儲存能力的舉措；以及我們的熱能項目指標。我們正在尋找其他多種途徑來降低我們的碳強度，例如為我們的設施提供更多可持續能源。我們的努力不僅僅在美國。我們也有針對其他地區的計劃，包括我們希望在未來談論的一些 EMEA 項目。

All of these projects contribute to our ability to offer low carbon intensity feedstocks, and that is allowing us to continue to advance our work to transition our dry mills to produce sustainable aviation fuel; help scale up the scaled food products with new sustainable attributes, like the ingredients we will sell to Pepsi from the regenerative agriculture agreement we announced last year; and propel the expansion of BioSolutions with joint ventures like with LG Chem.

所有這些項目都有助於我們提供低碳強度原料的能力，這使我們能夠繼續推進我們的工作，將我們的干磨機轉變為生產可持續航空燃料；幫助擴大具有新的可持續屬性的規模化食品，例如我們將根據去年宣布的再生農業協議出售給百事可樂的原料；並通過與 LG 化學等合資企業推動 BioSolutions 的擴張。

And even as we advance our decarbonization plan, we're always looking at new ways to help solve our world's challenges for food security, health and well-being and sustainability. For example, we are continuing to explore opportunities around precision fermentation, which we used to call microbial solutions, in which microbes rapidly growing -- grown in fermenters fed by dextrose, transform the sugars into a wide variety of products for food, feed and fiber. That's a longer-term horizon for ADM, but it gives us a hint of the kind of opportunities we see in the years ahead.

即使在我們推進脫碳計劃的同時，我們也一直在尋找新的方法來幫助解決我們世界在糧食安全、健康和福祉以及可持續性方面面臨的挑戰。例如，我們正在繼續探索圍繞精密發酵的機會，我們過去稱之為微生物解決方案，微生物在其中快速生長——在以葡萄糖為原料的發酵罐中生長，將糖轉化為用於食品、飼料和纖維的各種產品.這是 ADM 的長期前景，但它讓我們暗示了我們在未來幾年看到的那種機會。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Vikram to talk about our business performance. Vikram?

現在我想把電話轉給 Vikram 來談談我們的業務表現。維克拉姆？

Thank you, Juan. Please turn to Slide 7. The Ag Services and Oilseeds team capped off an outstanding year, with substantially higher year-over-year results in Q4. Ag Services results were higher than the fourth quarter of 2021. Low water conditions reduced North American export volumes, partially offset by the South American team, which executed well to deliver higher margins and volumes. Global trade results were lower than the strong fourth quarter of 2021, with lower ocean freight results partially offset by higher results in EMEA origination and destination marketing. The business benefited from a $110 million legal recovery related to the 2019 and 2020 closure of the Reserve, Louisiana export facility.

謝謝你，胡安。請轉到幻燈片 7。Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 團隊結束了出色的一年，第四季度的同比業績大幅提高。 Ag Services 的業績高於 2021 年第四季度。低水位條件減少了北美出口量，部分被南美團隊抵消，南美團隊執行良好以提供更高的利潤和數量。全球貿易結果低於 2021 年第四季度的強勁表現，海運費較低的結果部分被 EMEA 始發地和目的地營銷的較高結果所抵消。該業務受益於與 2019 年和 2020 年關閉路易斯安那州儲備出口設施相關的 1.1 億美元法律追償。

Crushing results were more than double those of the prior year period. In North America, strong export volumes for soybean meal and growing domestic demand for renewable diesel contributed to strong margins. In EMEA, oil demand powered strong rapeseed margins, more than offsetting higher energy costs compared to the prior year. Expanding margins drove negative timing impacts in the quarter of approximately $40 million.

壓榨結果是去年同期的兩倍多。在北美，強勁的豆粕出口量和不斷增長的國內對可再生柴油的需求推動了強勁的利潤率。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，石油需求推動了強勁的油菜籽利潤率，抵消了與上一年相比更高的能源成本。擴大的利潤率在本季度帶來了大約 4000 萬美元的負面時間影響。

RPO results were significantly higher year-over-year as the business continued to execute well to meet demand for food oil, renewable diesel in the U.S. and biodiesel globally. Equity earnings from Wilmar were much higher versus the fourth quarter of 2021.

RPO 結果同比顯著提高，因為該業務繼續表現良好以滿足美國對食用油、可再生柴油和全球生物柴油的需求。豐益國際的股票收益遠高於 2021 年第四季度。

Looking ahead, we expect AS&O results for Q1 to remain strong, similar to last year's very strong quarter, led by continued strength in crush margins and RPO. Ag Services is likely to be lower year-over-year, particularly in light of very strong global trade results in the prior year quarter.

展望未來，我們預計第一季度的 AS&O 結果將保持強勁，類似於去年非常強勁的季度，這主要得益於壓榨利潤率和 RPO 的持續走強。 Ag Services 可能會同比下降，特別是考慮到上一季度非常強勁的全球貿易結果。

Slide 8, please. Carbohydrate Solutions had a strong 2022, with full year results higher than 2021. For the quarter, results were substantially lower than the fourth quarter of 2021 due to pressured industry ethanol margins. The Starches and Sweeteners subsegment, which includes ethanol production from our wet mills, delivered much higher year-over-year results. The North America business delivered solid volumes and strong margins in both Starches and Sweeteners, partially offsetting lower ethanol margins.

請放幻燈片 8。 Carbohydrate Solutions 在 2022 年表現強勁，全年業績高於 2021 年。由於工業乙醇利潤率承壓，本季度業績大幅低於 2021 年第四季度。澱粉和甜味劑細分市場，包括我們的濕磨乙醇生產，實現了比去年同期高得多的業績。北美業務在澱粉和甜味劑方面實現了穩定的銷量和強勁的利潤率，部分抵消了較低的乙醇利潤率。

The EMEA team effectively managed risk and delivered improved results on better margins in a continued dynamic environment. The global wheat milling business delivered higher margins driven by solid customer demand. Vantage Corn Processors results were substantially lower as higher ethanol inventory levels pressured margins, especially compared to the very strong margin environment in the fourth quarter of 2021.

EMEA 團隊有效地管理了風險，並在持續動態的環境中以更高的利潤率提供了更好的結果。在強勁的客戶需求推動下，全球小麥加工業務實現了更高的利潤率。 Vantage Corn Processors 的業績大幅下降，原因是較高的乙醇庫存水平給利潤率帶來了壓力，尤其是與 2021 年第四季度非常強勁的利潤率環境相比。

Looking at the first quarter for Carbohydrate Solutions, we expect continued solid demand and strong margins for starches, sweeteners and wheat flour. Ethanol margins are currently pressured due to high industry inventory levels. If industry stocks come back down, results for the quarter could be similar to Q1 of 2022. If margins remain pressured, results would likely be lower.

縱觀碳水化合物解決方案的第一季度，我們預計澱粉、甜味劑和小麥粉的需求將持續強勁，利潤率也將保持強勁。由於行業庫存水平高，乙醇利潤率目前面臨壓力。如果行業庫存回落，本季度的業績可能與 2022 年第一季度相似。如果利潤率繼續承壓，業績可能會更低。

On Slide 9, the Nutrition business continued its strong growth trajectory in 2022. ADM demonstrated that it remains the provider of choice in nutrition for systems as our growing pipeline and continued strong win rates delivered full year revenue growth of 18% on a constant currency basis. The business continued to outperform industry growth levels and delivered 11% higher profits for the full year on a constant currency basis.

在幻燈片 9 中，營養業務在 2022 年繼續保持強勁的增長軌跡。ADM 證明它仍然是系統營養的首選供應商，因為我們不斷增長的產品線和持續強勁的贏率使全年收入在固定匯率基礎上增長了 18% .該業務繼續跑贏行業增長水平，按固定匯率計算，全年利潤增長 11%。

For the fourth quarter, revenues grew 11% on a constant currency basis. Q4 operating profits were significantly lower than the prior year quarters.

第四季度，按固定匯率計算，收入增長了 11%。第四季度營業利潤明顯低於去年同期。

Human Nutrition results were lower than those of the fourth quarter of 2021. Flavors results were similar to the prior year as strong revenue growth helped offset demand fulfillment challenges. Specialty Ingredients continued to see strong demand for its product portfolio, including plant-based proteins, offset by inventory adjustments. Health & Wellness was higher year-over-year, driven primarily by the bioactives portfolio, including the results from the DLN acquisition.

Human Nutrition 的業績低於 2021 年第四季度。由於強勁的收入增長幫助抵消了需求滿足方面的挑戰，食用香精業務的業績與上年相似。 Specialty Ingredients 繼續看到對其產品組合的強勁需求，包括植物蛋白，但被庫存調整所抵消。 Health & Wellness 同比增長，主要受生物活性產品組合的推動，包括 DLN 收購的結果。

Animal results were substantially lower than the prior year quarter, primarily due to the lower margins in amino acids, driven by recovery in the global supply of lysine. Pet nutrition, volumes were lower in Latin America, partially driven by demand fulfillment challenges. Feed results were stronger, driven by APAC and Latin America, partially offset by the impact of softer demand in EMEA.

動物業績大幅低於去年同期，這主要是由於全球賴氨酸供應復甦導致氨基酸利潤率下降。拉丁美洲的寵物營養品銷量較低，部分原因是需求滿足方面的挑戰。在亞太地區和拉丁美洲的推動下，飼料業績表現強勁，部分被歐洲、中東和非洲地區需求疲軟的影響所抵消。

As we look ahead, we expect overall Nutrition results in Q1 to be lower than the prior year's record first quarter, with Human Nutrition delivering similar year-over-year results on strong Flavors and SI growth and lower Animal Nutrition results primarily due to weaker margins in amino acids.

展望未來，我們預計第一季度的整體營養業績將低於去年創紀錄的第一季度，人類營養公司在強勁的風味和 SI 增長方面實現了與去年同期類似的業績，而動物營養業績較低主要是由於利潤率較低在氨基酸中。

I want to take a moment to expand on our view of Nutrition in 2023. Nutrition is expected to continue on a positive growth trajectory for full year 2023, including 10-plus percent profit growth and a similar level of revenue growth. The growth is likely to be led by Human Nutrition and to be weighted in the back half of the year as the first half will see headwinds in Animal Nutrition due to the continued impacts of weaker margins in amino acids and because we will see increasing recovery in demand fulfillment as we move through the year.

我想花點時間談談我們對 2023 年營養的看法。預計營養將在 2023 年全年繼續保持正增長軌跡，包括 10% 以上的利潤增長和類似水平的收入增長。這一增長很可能由人類營養引領，並在下半年受到重視，因為上半年由於氨基酸利潤率下降的持續影響，動物營養將出現逆風，而且我們將看到動物營養的複蘇加快隨著我們度過這一年，需求得到滿足。

Slide 10, please. Other Business results for Q4 were significantly higher than the prior year's fourth quarter. Higher short-term interest rates drove improved earnings in ADM Investor Services and captive insurance experienced favorable underwriting results and lower claim settlements versus the prior year. In the corporate lines, unallocated corporate costs of $299 million were higher year-over-year due primarily to higher IT operating and project-related costs and higher costs in the company's centers of excellence related to growth initiatives.

請放幻燈片 10。第四季度的其他業務業績明顯高於去年第四季度。較高的短期利率推動了 ADM Investor Services 收益的改善，專屬保險的承保業績良好，理賠額低於上年。在公司方面，未分配的公司成本為 2.99 億美元，同比增加主要是由於 IT 運營和項目相關成本增加，以及公司與增長計劃相關的卓越中心的成本增加。

Other corporate was favorable versus the prior year, primarily due to higher contributions from foreign currency-related hedge activity and lower railroad maintenance expense. Corporate results also included losses related to the mark-to-market adjustment on the Wilmar exchangeable bond and severance totaling $6 million. Net interest expense for the quarter increased year-over-year on higher interest rates.

其他企業與上一年相比有利，主要是由於外匯相關對沖活動的貢獻增加和鐵路維護費用減少。公司業績還包括與 Wilmar 可交換債券和遣散費的市值調整相關的損失，總計 600 萬美元。由於利率上升，本季度的淨利息支出同比增加。

We expect corporate cost for 2023 to be around $1.5 billion, driven primarily by inflation and higher interest expense. Other business performance should be higher than 2022, offsetting a significant portion of the increased corporate costs as higher interest rates positively impact our ADM IS business.

我們預計 2023 年的企業成本約為 15 億美元，主要受通貨膨脹和利息支出增加的推動。其他業務績效應高於 2022 年，抵消了公司成本增加的很大一部分，因為更高的利率對我們的 ADM IS 業務產生了積極影響。

The effective tax rate for the fourth quarter of 2022 was approximately 16% compared to 21% in the prior year. The decreased rate was driven primarily by changes in the geographic mix of pretax earnings in addition to lower discrete tax expense versus the prior year. Our full year adjusted tax rate was 17%. For 2023, we expect our adjusted tax rate to be between 16% and 19%.

2022 年第四季度的有效稅率約為 16%，而去年同期為 21%。稅率下降的主要原因是稅前收益的地域組合發生了變化，此外還有與上一年相比較低的離散稅費。我們的全年調整後稅率為 17%。對於 2023 年，我們預計調整後的稅率將在 16% 至 19% 之間。

Next slide, please. Year-to-date operating cash flows before working capital of $5.3 billion are up significantly versus $3.9 billion over the same period last year. Our net debt-to-total capital ratio is about 25%, and we continue to have ample available liquidity. Our strong cash flows and balance sheet have enabled continued investment in the business, with $1.3 billion in capital expenditures for the full year. We currently plan to maintain capital expenditures at about $1.3 billion in 2023 and continue to have significant financial capacity to pursue strategic growth objectives.

請換下一張幻燈片。年初至今營運資金前的運營現金流量為 53 億美元，較去年同期的 39 億美元大幅增加。我們的淨債務與總資本比率約為 25%，我們繼續擁有充裕的可用流動性。我們強勁的現金流和資產負債表使我們能夠繼續對該業務進行投資，全年資本支出達 13 億美元。我們目前計劃在 2023 年將資本支出維持在 13 億美元左右，並繼續擁有強大的財務能力來實現戰略增長目標。

We have been continuing to return capital to shareholders. We distributed $900 million in dividends and repurchased almost $1.5 billion of shares in 2022. We are planning $1 billion in opportunistic buybacks for 2023, subject to other strategic uses of capital.

我們一直在繼續向股東返還資本。我們在 2022 年分配了 9 億美元的股息並回購了近 15 億美元的股票。我們計劃在 2023 年進行 10 億美元的機會性回購，具體取決於資本的其他戰略用途。

Juan?

娟？

Thank you, Vikram. Next slide, please. 2022 was a truly outstanding year for ADM. As we look forward to 2023, we expect another very strong year. There are a number of market factors that we see as relevant for shaping our performance. We still see tightness in supply and demand balances in key products and regions. We see strong demand for vegetable oil, driven largely by robust demand for biodiesel and renewable diesel. Resilient food demand should drive higher volumes and margins in starches, sweeteners and wheat milling.

謝謝你，維克拉姆。請換下一張幻燈片。 2022 年對於 ADM 來說是真正傑出的一年。當我們展望 2023 年時，我們期待又一個非常強勁的一年。我們認為有許多市場因素與塑造我們的業績有關。我們仍然看到主要產品和地區的供需平衡緊張。我們看到對植物油的強勁需求，主要是由對生物柴油和可再生柴油的強勁需求推動的。彈性的食品需求應該會推動澱粉、甜味劑和小麥加工的產量和利潤率提高。

We see continued strong demand for ethanol, including positive discretionary blending economics. And as Vikram mentioned, we expect 10-plus percent constant currency OP growth from Nutrition.

我們看到對乙醇的持續強勁需求，包括積極的自由裁量混合經濟學。正如 Vikram 所提到的，我們預計 Nutrition 的貨幣 OP 將保持 10% 以上的恆定增長。

We have a strong playbook powered by our deep expertise and our unparalleled footprint and capabilities to manage a dynamic market environment. Our healthy balance sheet provides ongoing optionality as we continue to pull the levers under our control to deliver results. And we expect positive contributions from productivity and innovation initiatives across the company that will help us drive value in 2023. Taken together, we expect to deliver another very strong year in 2023.

我們擁有強大的劇本，由我們深厚的專業知識和無與倫比的足跡和管理動態市場環境的能力提供支持。我們健康的資產負債表提供了持續的可選性，因為我們繼續在我們的控制下拉動槓桿以取得成果。我們預計整個公司的生產力和創新計劃將做出積極貢獻，這將幫助我們在 2023 年推動價值。總而言之，我們預計 2023 年將迎來又一個非常強勁的一年。

With that, Bailey, please open the line for questions.

那麼，貝利，請打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from the line of Ben Bienvenu from Stephens.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Ben Bienvenu。

So I want to ask in the Nutrition segment. Your guidance, I think, one, you said 10% growth in constant currency. Two questions, I have. One is at the current exchange rate levels, what would that imply in just a reported growth rate? And then secondarily, just thinking strategically, you're talking about some of the expansions that you're making in organic growth investment. What does your appetite for M&A look like in that segment? And how fertile is the landscape for potential M&A?

所以我想在營養部分問一下。你的指導，我想，第一，你說按固定匯率計算增長 10%。我有兩個問題。一個是在當前的匯率水平下，僅在報告的增長率中意味著什麼？其次，只是從戰略上思考，你在談論你在有機增長投資方面所做的一些擴張。您對該細分市場的併購興趣如何？潛在併購的前景如何？

Yes. Thank you, Ben. Listen, that business has been a very successful story at the customer level for many, many years. We continue to drive higher growth rates than the industry we participate in. So that has not changed, the robust pipeline growth's there, and we have achieved all that, Ben, through a very disciplined strategy of bolt-on acquisitions and organic growth. So we did 4 bolt-ons in 2021. We took the time in 2022 to integrate them and digest them. At the same time, in 2022, we started many projects that I highlighted in my initial comments on organic growth.

是的。謝謝你，本。聽著，多年來，該業務在客戶層面一直是一個非常成功的故事。我們繼續推動比我們參與的行業更高的增長率。所以這並沒有改變，強勁的管道增長就在那裡，我們已經實現了這一切，本，通過非常有紀律的補強收購和有機增長戰略。所以我們在 2021 年做了 4 次補強。我們在 2022 年花時間整合和消化它們。與此同時，在 2022 年，我們啟動了許多項目，我在最初對有機增長的評論中強調了這些項目。

So I would say that will be the pattern that you should expect to us. I mean we have stated many years in our balanced capital allocation. And in this Nutrition pace, if you will, of bolt-on and M&A and taking some time to digest some of those things, I'm very pleased to report that the 4 acquisitions we made in 2021 are executing or delivering ahead of their business model. So we're not planning to change the pace or the strategy that we have had so far. The projects that we are making selective expansions on or bringing to life soon are all going well even despite the long time -- long lead time equipment and sometimes you face in the industry. We've done that in anticipation of all that. So we feel very good about being able to support, with capacity, the growth in demand that we see in the marketplace from our participations.

所以我想說這將是你應該期望我們的模式。我的意思是我們在平衡的資本配置中已經說明了很多年。在這種營養步伐中，如果你願意的話，通過補強和併購並花一些時間來消化其中的一些東西，我很高興地報告說，我們在 2021 年進行的 4 次收購正在他們的業務之前執行或交付模型。所以我們不打算改變我們目前的步伐或策略。我們正在選擇性擴展或很快投入使用的項目都進展順利，儘管時間很長 - 設備交貨時間長，有時你會在行業中面臨。我們已經預料到了這一切。因此，我們對能夠以能力支持我們從參與中看到的市場需求增長感到非常高興。

Okay. And the question on the constant currency versus reported, any color you can offer there at current exchange rates?

好的。關於固定貨幣與報告的問題，您可以按照當前匯率在那裡提供任何顏色嗎？

Yes. So effectively, Ben, we don't assume a lot of change in currency for 2023. Yes, you've seen some weakness in the U.S. dollar, but you can assume that, even on a reported basis right now, we assume similar growth rates in OP.

是的。所以實際上，本，我們不假設 2023 年貨幣會發生很大變化。是的，你已經看到美元有些疲軟，但你可以假設，即使在目前報告的基礎上，我們也假設類似的增長OP中的利率。

Okay. Great. Can I ask one follow-up? Or is that too greedy?

好的。偉大的。我可以問一個後續嗎？還是太貪心了？

Go ahead, Ben.

來吧，本。

Okay. I actually want to shift gears a little bit and pivots to Starches and Sweeteners. That business was fantastic in the quarter. Your forward commentary sounded quite constructive as well. Could you give us a little bit more color on how you see that evolving into 2023? And do you think you can achieve margin expansion there?

好的。我實際上想稍微換檔，轉向澱粉和甜味劑。該業務在本季度表現出色。您的前瞻性評論聽起來也很有建設性。你能給我們更多關於你如何看待 2023 年演變的顏色嗎？你認為你能在那裡實現利潤率擴張嗎？

So based on the customer contracting we've seen in the Sweeteners and Starches portfolio, Ben, we do see strong volumes and margins. And with the improved mix, we talked about BioSolutions expansion, we actually had 26% year-on-year growth, and BioSolutions margin remained very robust. And with the improved mix, we actually see a potential in the Sweeteners and Starches business to have higher volumes and margins in 2023.

因此，根據我們在甜味劑和澱粉產品組合中看到的客戶合同，本，我們確實看到了強勁的銷量和利潤率。隨著組合的改善，我們談到了 BioSolutions 的擴張，我們實際上同比增長了 26%，而 BioSolutions 的利潤率仍然非常強勁。隨著組合的改進，我們實際上看到了甜味劑和澱粉業務在 2023 年實現更高銷量和利潤率的潛力。

Clearly, ethanol remains uncertain, and we've seen recently inventory levels remain high, and that's actually pretty similar to January of last year as well. But we're still constructive in terms of outlook for ethanol, given what's happening with the RVO framework, the fact that gasoline demand is expected to be roughly flat versus 2022, blending economics remain very favorable. And frankly, export volume should be similar to last year, around 1.4 billion gallons. So that's a quick snapshot of our outlook for 2023.

顯然，乙醇仍然不確定，而且我們最近看到庫存水平仍然很高，這實際上也與去年 1 月非常相似。但我們對乙醇的前景仍然持樂觀態度，鑑於 RVO 框架正在發生的事情，汽油需求預計與 2022 年大致持平，混合經濟仍然非常有利。坦率地說，出口量應該與去年相似，約為 14 億加侖。這就是我們對 2023 年展望的簡要概述。

The next question today comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

今天的下一個問題來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson。

So I wanted to hopefully tie together some of the forward comments that you made and see, just to help calibrate kind of us on the net impact of that at the earnings level. So Nutrition is going to have kind of 10% constant currency profit growth, not much FX right now. Other -- and other and corporate and interest kind of basically seemingly netting out to roughly flat year-over-year. Tax rate, flat to maybe up slightly year-over-year. So I guess the 2 pieces of the puzzle that are missing from there are Ag Services and Oilseeds profit and Carbohydrate Solutions. I think ethanol remains somewhat of a wildcard on carbohydrates, although the rest of Starches and Sweeteners, you sound generally constructive.

因此，我希望將您發表和看到的一些前瞻性評論聯繫在一起，只是為了幫助我們調整我們對收益水平的淨影響。所以 Nutrition 將有 10% 的固定貨幣利潤增長，目前沒有多少外匯。其他 - 以及其他和公司和利息基本上似乎與去年同期大致持平。稅率，同比持平或略有上升。所以我想那裡缺少的兩塊拼圖是 Ag Services 和 Oilseeds profit 以及 Carbohydrate Solutions。我認為乙醇在某種程度上仍然是碳水化合物的通配符，儘管其餘的澱粉和甜味劑聽起來總體上具有建設性。

So can you help us, Juan, Vikram, just thinking about kind of a range of outcomes on Ag Services and Oilseeds based on where crush margins are today, kind of assuming, let's say, an average U.S. crop, no enormous supply dislocation coming out of the U.S. in the second half of the year, just how kind of the profit outlook would be tracking in Ag Services and Oilseeds? And if there's anything else on a year-on-year basis, you want us to be considering, that would be really helpful.

所以你能幫助我們嗎，胡安，維克拉姆，只是根據今天的壓榨利潤率考慮農業服務和油籽的一系列結果，有點假設，比方說，平均美國作物，沒有出現巨大的供應錯位今年下半年，美國農業服務和油籽的利潤前景如何？如果與去年同期相比還有其他任何事情，您希望我們考慮，那將非常有幫助。

Yes. Thank you, Adam. I think you captured the situation well. I think we continue to see a very strong margin environment in Ag Services and Oilseeds. 2022, we hit in all cylinders. I think that every piece of our business hit records. When we look at the 2023, we continue to see very strong demand. If you look at North America, North America had a strong meal demand and certainly very strong domestic demand for oil, driven by all the factors, driven by sustainability that you know.

是的。謝謝你，亞當。我認為你很好地把握了情況。我認為我們繼續看到農業服務和油籽的利潤環境非常強勁。 2022 年，我們全力以赴。我認為我們的每一項業務都創下了記錄。當我們展望 2023 年時，我們繼續看到非常強勁的需求。如果你看看北美，北美有強勁的膳食需求，當然還有非常強勁的國內對石油的需求，這是由所有因素驅動的，由你知道的可持續性驅動。

We see a strong potential for crush margins in Europe, given the bad crop in Argentina and the fact that Europe will continue to export biodiesel to the U.S. given the need that we have here. So all in all, we continue to see strength. Certainly, RPO, we're going to see the strong demand. Biodiesel and all that is going -- we're seeing strong margins and very good volumes for next year. We do have visibility into this -- into the next year, given our book, so we feel good about that business.

考慮到阿根廷收成欠佳以及鑑於我們的需求，歐洲將繼續向美國出口生物柴油，我們認為歐洲的壓榨利潤率潛力巨大。所以總而言之，我們繼續看到實力。當然，RPO，我們將看到強勁的需求。生物柴油和所有正在發生的事情——我們看到明年的利潤率很高，銷量也很好。鑑於我們的書，我們確實對此有了解 - 到明年，所以我們對這項業務感覺良好。

As Vikram mentioned in the commentary, maybe Ag Services, we're planning it a little bit slower than last year, given the exceptional results that we had last year. And -- but as difficult as it is to pinpoint a number, Adam, given that we have China uncertainty, war that has been going on for a year and, certainly, weather events that we still need to build the U.S. crop, and we still need to finish the Latin American crops, I would say we favor more a range of scenarios.

正如 Vikram 在評論中提到的，也許是 Ag Services，考慮到我們去年取得的優異成績，我們的計劃比去年慢了一點。而且 - 但儘管很難確定一個數字，亞當，鑑於我們對中國有不確定性，戰爭已經持續了一年，當然還有我們仍然需要建立美國作物的天氣事件，我們仍然需要完成拉丁美洲的作物，我想說我們更傾向於一系列的情景。

And in the range of scenarios, 2023, falls into a very strong range for us. So I don't know -- I will not venture to pinpoint a specific number, but certainly strong range. When you go to carb solutions, when we talk to our customers, demand for the products is stable. We've been able to have strong margins in all that, whether it's Sweeteners and Starches or whether it's wheat milling. When we look at BioSolutions, it continues to grow, like 26% of revenue. And then we see EBITDA margins in the 20% for that business, which is a very profitable business that is growing their contribution into carb solutions as part of the total OP.

在情景範圍內，2023 年對我們來說屬於一個非常強大的範圍。所以我不知道——我不會冒險確定一個具體數字，但肯定是一個很大的範圍。當您使用碳水化合物解決方案時，當我們與客戶交談時，對產品的需求是穩定的。我們已經能夠在所有這些方面獲得豐厚的利潤，無論是甜味劑和澱粉，還是小麥碾磨。當我們看 BioSolutions 時，它繼續增長，佔收入的 26%。然後我們看到該業務的 EBITDA 利潤率為 20%，這是一個非常有利可圖的業務，作為總 OP 的一部分，他們正在增加對碳水化合物解決方案的貢獻。

So that is a business that Vikram called the question mark of -- the more volatile part of it probably is ethanol. And that's -- right now, like a little bit like in the last year, we start with this time of the year with low margins. And -- but we think that we're going to have a very good incentive for people to blend ethanol. The numbers are there. RINs balances are tight, will encourage people to blend. So I think that given the prices that they have, I think that expecting export in the range of 1.4 million to 1.5 billion gallons per year is reasonable. And you saw these days, Petrobras in Brazil increasing the gasoline prices by 7%, so they're going to be less flow from there to here in all these.

因此，這是維克拉姆稱之為問號的業務——其中更不穩定的部分可能是乙醇。那就是——現在，有點像去年，我們從一年中的這個時候開始，利潤率很低。而且 - 但我們認為我們將有一個很好的激勵人們混合乙醇。數字在那裡。 RIN 餘額緊張，將鼓勵人們融合。所以我認為，考慮到他們的價格，我認為預計每年出口 140 萬至 15 億加侖是合理的。你看到這些天，巴西的 Petrobras 將汽油價格提高了 7%，因此在所有這些方面，從那裡到這裡的流量將會減少。

So we're still planning for a little bit softer, maybe carb solutions in light of our ethanol forecast. But conditions are -- could change in ethanol and it could make it a close year. So all in all, we continue to see a very strong year for 2023.

因此，根據我們對乙醇的預測，我們仍在計劃更溫和的解決方案，也許是碳水化合物解決方案。但條件是 - 乙醇可能會發生變化，這可能會使它成為一個結束的一年。因此，總而言之，我們繼續看到 2023 年非常強勁。

The next question today comes from the line of Ben Theurer from Barclays.

今天的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

Just wanted to quickly follow up on the Nutrition dynamics you've seen in the fourth quarter and how that translated into 1Q and somehow if you could frame it for that medium-term growth algorithm you've laid out a little over a year ago during your Capital Markets Day update. So fair to assume that there was obviously a lot of specific issues around fulfillment, some very specific demand items that kind of impacted in the fourth quarter, and you expect this, obviously, to continue into the first half and then recover into the second half.

只是想快速跟進你在第四季度看到的營養動態，以及它如何轉化為第一季度，以及你是否可以以某種方式為你在一年多前製定的中期增長算法制定框架您的資本市場日更新。可以公平地假設在履行方面顯然存在很多具體問題，一些非常具體的需求項目在第四季度受到了影響，你預計這顯然會持續到上半年，然後恢復到下半年.

Now clearly, the 10% you've laid out and what you've talked about OP growth in 2023 is kind of below the algorithm. So can you help us frame how '23 kind of fits within your '25 strategy and where you want to go? Is that just a small dip can then be recovered? Or would you need some M&A to get back on track to the target of 1.2 at least by 2025 so that we understand how to think about the specific headwinds that can potentially be offset versus what might be more of a structural challenge within Nutrition?

現在很明顯，你所設定的 10% 以及你所談論的 2023 年 OP 增長有點低於算法。那麼，您能否幫助我們構建“23 年”如何適應您的“25 年”戰略以及您想去哪裡？是不是只要小幅下跌就可以恢復？或者您是否需要進行一些併購以至少在 2025 年之前回到 1.2 的目標，以便我們了解如何考慮可能抵消的特定逆風與營養領域可能更多的結構性挑戰？

Yes, Ben, in terms of Q4, the issues that affected Q4, I'd say, are kind of a little more temporary, right, that we think we'll be able to work through over the course of 2023, as I talked about. Specifically, what's important for you to know that the demand is very, very strong, right? So that is -- we talked about the strongest-ever pipeline in the Human Nutrition business and very strong win rates. So across every category that we play in, almost we've got strong demand.

是的，本，就第四季度而言，影響第四季度的問題，我想說，有點暫時，對，我們認為我們將能夠在 2023 年期間解決，正如我所說的關於。具體來說，知道需求非常非常強勁對您來說重要的是什麼，對嗎？這就是——我們談到了人類營養業務中有史以來最強大的管道和非常高的贏率。因此，在我們參與的每個類別中，幾乎我們都有強勁的需求。

Yes, there is some softening in certain parts of the business, right? You know -- aware of dietary supplements, that being a little softer. Plant-based protein growth may moderate a bit from the pace we've seen historically. But nevertheless, our growth has been very strong in Human Nutrition. The challenge we've had is the demand fulfillment. That's going to take us a while to address and overcome.

是的，業務的某些部分有所軟化，對嗎？你知道 - 知道膳食補充劑，它有點柔軟。基於植物的蛋白質增長可能會比我們以往看到的速度有所放緩。儘管如此，我們在人類營養方面的增長非常強勁。我們面臨的挑戰是需求的滿足。這將需要我們一段時間來解決和克服。

Animal Nutrition, on the other hand, we benefited from strong margins in lysine. But in Q4, the compression in margins were sharper and faster than we expected, and that's going to continue over the course of 2023. So we've got to offset that plus drive growth, and that's what gives us a slightly below trend line growth for 2023 around 10-plus percent. Having said that, the outlook remains robust.

動物營養，另一方面，我們受益於賴氨酸的強勁利潤。但在第四季度，利潤率的壓縮比我們預期的更嚴重、更快，而且這種情況將持續到 2023 年。所以我們必須抵消這一影響並推動增長，這就是我們略低於趨勢線增長的原因到 2023 年約為 10% 以上。話雖如此，前景依然強勁。

And maybe, Juan, do you want to talk about the 2025 perspective?

也許，胡安，你想談談 2025 年的前景嗎？

Yes. Thank you, Vikram. Ben, listen, I think we've been -- you've been witnessing how we built this Nutrition business over the years. This is a business that, if I take out the last 3 years, it has been growing OP by 20%, CAGR, if you will. So it's a business that we continue to add layers of capabilities so we can continue to win at the customer front, whether it's we go from individual ingredients to systems, where we bring functionality to those systems through bioactives, whether we bring sustainability benefits to that through our decarbonization or Regen Ag.

是的。謝謝你，維克拉姆。本，聽著，我想我們已經——你多年來一直在見證我們是如何建立這個營養業務的。這是一個業務，如果我去掉過去 3 年，它的 OP 增長了 20%，複合年增長率，如果你願意的話。因此，這是一個我們不斷增加功能層的業務，這樣我們就可以繼續在客戶面前取勝，無論是我們從單個成分到系統，我們通過生物活性為這些系統帶來功能，我們是否為其帶來可持續性效益通過我們的脫碳或 Regen Ag。

So we continue to add layers to continue to help customers excel at the consumer level. And we see that in our win rates, and we see that in our pipeline. So we have visibility into that. As Vikram said, maybe some of the categories soften a little bit, but our ability to gain share, to win faster than those categories has been demonstrated. I think this year, we grew revenue significantly higher than the market. So when we look forward, as I said in my -- I think one of the earlier answers, we continue to expect bolt-on and M&A -- bolt-on M&A and organic growth. We had 4 companies in 2021. We're building capabilities and new capacity in 2022 that we're going to see onstream in '23, and we're going to continue to grow that.

因此，我們不斷增加層次，以繼續幫助客戶在消費者層面上脫穎而出。我們在我們的贏率中看到了這一點，我們在我們的管道中看到了這一點。所以我們對此有了解。正如 Vikram 所說，也許某些類別會有所軟化，但我們已經證明了我們獲得份額的能力，以及比這些類別更快獲勝的能力。我認為今年，我們的收入增長明顯高於市場。因此，當我們展望未來時，正如我在我的 - 我認為是較早的答案之一中所說的那樣，我們繼續期待補強和併購 - 補強併購和有機增長。 2021 年我們有 4 家公司。我們正在建設 2022 年的能力和新能力，我們將在 23 年看到這些能力，我們將繼續發展。

So we haven't deviated from our 2025 plan. And I don't think it will require massive M&A to achieve there. It will -- you will see this steady state. But this is a business that we're building in the middle of a lot of volatility in the market. This is, of course, versus the legacy ADM business. It's more complex in the number of SKUs that we have, in the number of customers that we have, in the number of plants and categories that we manage. So when supply chain issues happen or market volatility happen, it's a little bit more complex to fix in this business. And that's why we expect a first half that's going to be a little bit subdued when you add the demand fulfillment issues and some of the capability building, with the fact that also lysine is coming down, if you will, in prices at least for the moment.

所以我們沒有偏離我們的 2025 計劃。而且我不認為需要大規模併購才能實現這一目標。它會——你會看到這種穩定狀態。但這是我們在市場波動很大的情況下建立的業務。當然，這與傳統的 ADM 業務相比。我們擁有的 SKU 數量、我們擁有的客戶數量、我們管理的工廠和類別數量更加複雜。因此，當發生供應鏈問題或市場波動時，解決此業務會稍微複雜一些。這就是為什麼我們預計當您添加需求滿足問題和一些能力建設時上半年會有點低迷，事實上賴氨酸的價格也在下降，如果您願意的話，至少在片刻。

So I would say nothing has deviated. Certainly, if you ask me personally, and I think the management team, are we happy with Q4? I mean, of course, Q4 underperformed our own expectations. I mean that's nothing new for a business that, again, has been growing 20% per year CAGR. And -- but we think that this is just a trajectory in the business that continued to win faster than what the market gives us at this point in time. We don't expect a deviation to our long-term plan at this point.

所以我會說沒有任何偏差。當然，如果你問我個人，我想是管理團隊，我們對第四季度滿意嗎？我的意思是，當然，第四季度的表現低於我們自己的預期。我的意思是，對於一家每年復合年均增長率達到 20% 的企業來說，這並不是什麼新鮮事。而且 - 但我們認為這只是業務中的一個軌跡，它繼續以比市場目前給我們的速度更快的速度取勝。我們預計此時不會偏離我們的長期計劃。

Our next question today comes from the line of Manav Gupta from UBS.

我們今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

Congrats on the beat and the dividend hike, shareholder returns matter and you have continuously rewarded your shareholders. My quick question here is, and you've kind of alluded to it also, is we are seeing a lot of new capacity start up on the renewable diesel side, I think, major projects starting up even last quarter. And then your outlook for both soybean oil and soybean meal, it seems pretty strong right now. Any risks to that? And how do you see the year progressing from the perspective of both soybean oil and soybean meal?

祝賀節拍和股息增加，股東回報很重要，你一直在回報你的股東。我的快速問題是，你也提到過，我們是否看到許多新產能在可再生柴油方面啟動，我認為，重大項目甚至在上個季度啟動。然後你對豆油和豆粕的前景，現在看起來相當強勁。這樣做有什麼風險嗎？從豆油和豆粕的角度來看，您如何看待今年的進展？

Yes. Thank you, Manav. Thank you for the question. We continue to see very strong demand across the world, not only for all the oils. I think that if you take the 4 oils, demand is running harder than production, if you will, globally. So even I would say before renewable green diesel happened, we had already a tight balance sheet from an oils perspective, and that has continued. When you think about the capacity that renewable green diesel is installing, it's going to have a huge pull in soybean oil.

是的。謝謝你，馬納夫。感謝你的提問。我們繼續看到世界各地的需求非常強勁，不僅僅是對所有的油類。我認為，如果你拿這 4 種油來說，全球範圍內的需求比生產更難。因此，即使我會說在可再生綠色柴油出現之前，從石油的角度來看，我們的資產負債表已經很緊，而且這種情況還在繼續。當您考慮可再生綠色柴油正在安裝的容量時，它將對大豆油產生巨大的推動作用。

And we have found that there is -- we have found relatively easy to place the meal in the export markets. And if you look at the market overall, the meal market is a market of like 175 million metric tons and growing. So if you calculate by 2026, we need to have 20 million tonnes more soybean meal, just to catch up with the demand. And if you look at everything that we are building through the RGD and the capacity expansions, we are estimating about 15 million tonnes of supply on soybean meal. So still, we have -- we're still covered in only 75% of the expected soybean meal demand out there.

而且我們發現 - 我們發現將餐食投放到出口市場相對容易。如果你看一下整個市場，就會發現餐飲市場的規模約為 1.75 億噸，而且還在不斷增長。所以如果你計算到2026年，我們需要多2000萬噸豆粕，才能趕上需求。如果你看看我們通過 RGD 和產能擴張建設的一切，我們估計豆粕供應量約為 1500 萬噸。所以，我們仍然 - 我們仍然只滿足預期豆粕需求的 75%。

So we're looking at this, as you can understand, very carefully. Remember, as I always mentioned, it took us 2 years to assess Spiritwood and start building it. I'm happy to report that is going to come online for the harvest. So I would say we look at this, but the demand on both sides on the soybean meal and soybean oil clearly can support all this capacity. So we continue to see an environment in which crush margins will be strong and highly supportive for many, many years.

因此，正如您所理解的，我們正在非常仔細地研究這個問題。請記住，正如我經常提到的，我們花了 2 年時間來評估 Spiritwood 並開始建造它。我很高興地報告即將上線收穫。所以我想說我們看看這個，但雙方對豆粕和豆油的需求顯然可以支持所有這些產能。因此，我們繼續看到壓榨利潤率將在很多年內保持強勁和高度支撐的環境。

The next question comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

Yes. This is (inaudible) filling in for Steve. So firstly, I wanted to ask a little bit about China, and specifically, you mentioned meal demand. So a little bit short- and long-term view. In the short term, I guess, with the reopening there, et cetera, do you see actually a positive momentum for demand for soybean meal or soybeans versus what you saw in the past couple of years with COVID, 0? And then long term actually is we've been reading how Chinese population dropped last year. Essentially, it seems to have peaked much earlier than expected. And there are articles talking about what could be the long-term trajectory of food demand there, including protein demand and, therefore, what would be the demand for feed. So how are you seeing the long-term outlook in China for soybean meal and other products that you make?

是的。這是（聽不清）史蒂夫的替補。所以首先，我想問一些關於中國的問題，具體來說，你提到了餐飲需求。所以有點短期和長期的觀點。我想，在短期內，隨著那裡的重新開放等，你是否真的看到豆粕或大豆需求的積極勢頭與你在過去幾年中看到的 COVID 0 相比？從長遠來看，實際上我們一直在閱讀去年中國人口的下降情況。從本質上講，它似乎比預期的要早得多。還有一些文章討論了那裡食品需求的長期軌跡，包括蛋白質需求，以及因此對飼料的需求。那麼您如何看待您生產的豆粕和其他產品在中國的長期前景？

Yes. Thank you. Good questions. So on the short-term part of the question, we see China will continue to increase imports. If you look at domestic grain prices are at historically high levels, especially now that we are -- that they are reopening. Of course, a reopening of China could be a game changer for a variety of commodities, not just grains. We look at domestic vegetable oil stocks have been at relatively low levels. And we have seen, during the second half of 2022, an increase in domestic pork prices since, I would say, last spring. So that prompted farmers to increase their herd.

是的。謝謝你。好問題。所以在問題的短期部分，我們看到中國將繼續增加進口。如果你看看國內糧食價格處於歷史高位，尤其是現在我們——他們正在重新開放。當然，中國的重新開放可能會改變各種商品的遊戲規則，而不僅僅是穀物。我們看國內植物油庫存一直處於比較低的水平。我們已經看到，在 2022 年下半年，國內豬肉價格從去年春天開始上漲。因此，這促使農民增加了畜群。

So we see that demand in the short term. But again, I think the variability here may be on the upside on how much of the reopening is bringing people to consumption. Of course, people have been in lockdown almost for 2 years in China. And there is a -- you're going to find the same pent-up demand that we saw ourselves maybe since last year when everybody came out of COVID. So I think at this point in time, short term, China will be probably a positive upside, if anything, to our forecast.

所以我們在短期內看到了這種需求。但同樣，我認為這裡的可變性可能是關於重新開放在多大程度上使人們消費的問題。當然，在中國，人們已經被封鎖了將近 2 年。並且有一個 - 你會發現與我們看到的相同的被壓抑的需求，也許自去年每個人都從 COVID 中走出來以來。所以我認為在這個時間點，從短期來看，中國可能會對我們的預測產生積極的影響，如果有的話。

When you look at the long term and the demographics of China that you described, probably about 50% of the Chinese population is middle class or what you will consider middle class, and they are in this process of increasing their protein consumption. But still, historically, if you look at the U.S., we consume about 270 pounds per year of proteins. China is at the 170 pounds per year level. So they are still far from our level of consumption. And again, if you look at our lifestyles are converging slowly, so you will expect their protein per capita consumption to grow significantly during this period.

當你從長遠來看和你描述的中國人口統計數據時，大約 50% 的中國人口是中產階級或你認為的中產階級，他們正處於增加蛋白質消費的過程中。但是，從歷史上看，如果你看看美國，我們每年消耗大約 270 磅的蛋白質。中國處於每年170磅的水平。所以他們離我們的消費水平還差得很遠。再一次，如果你看看我們的生活方式正在慢慢趨同，那麼你會預計他們的人均蛋白質消費量在此期間會顯著增長。

The other thing you need to remember is we're still going to be 10 billion people in the planet by 2050, which is one of the issues that serves our -- or drives our purpose, which is trying to increase the carrying capacity of the planet, trying to feed all that. And whether it's in China or whether it's in Africa or whether it's in Southeast Asia, we are a global company, we have a global footprint, and you have seen us continue to expand our destination marketing footprint to serve customers around the world. So we will serve the feeding of growing population of the world, whether it's in China or somewhere else. But as I said, I don't expect China to have a decline in the next probably 2 decades in terms of their demand for protein consumption.

您需要記住的另一件事是，到 2050 年，地球上的人口仍將達到 100 億，這是服務於我們的問題之一 - 或者推動我們的目標，即試圖提高地球的承載能力星球，試圖養活所有這些。而且無論是在中國還是在非洲還是在東南亞，我們都是一家全球性公司，我們的足跡遍布全球，您已經看到我們不斷擴大目的地營銷足跡，為全球客戶提供服務。因此，我們將為世界上不斷增長的人口提供食物，無論是在中國還是其他地方。但正如我所說，我預計中國在未來 20 年內對蛋白質消費的需求不會下降。

The next question today comes from the line of Robert Moskow from Credit Suisse.

今天的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Robert Moskow。

I was hoping to get a little more detail on your forward outlook for ASO. In the slides in the back, you indicate that the front month board crush is about $75 a tonne, and that's lower than where it was in your third quarter call. Does that influence your outlook for forward crush and all the fact that it's come down a bit? And how can I relate that to what happened in calendar '22?

我希望能更詳細地了解您對 ASO 的展望。在後面的幻燈片中，您表示前一個月的板材壓榨價格約為每噸 75 美元，這低於您在第三季度電話會議中的水平。這是否會影響您對向前擠壓的展望以及它有所下降的所有事實？我如何將其與日曆 '22 中發生的事情聯繫起來？

Yes. Rob, I couldn't hear you very well, but I get the gist of the question. So listen, I think at this point in time -- and as I said before, we have visibility for probably the first quarter and big part of the first half. 2023 will be another strong year for crush, certainly above the long-term guidance that we provided at our Global Investor Day. We also are planning to have an improvement in our process volumes that -- given some of the operational resilience initiatives. And we're going to have Spiritwood online in Q4. And hopefully, by -- in a couple of -- maybe in a couple of weeks and a month, we will resume crush in Paraguay.

是的。 Rob，我聽不太清楚，但我明白問題的要點了。所以聽著，我認為在這個時間點——正如我之前所說，我們可能對第一季度和上半年的大部分時間都有可見性。 2023 年將是 crush 的又一個強勁年份，肯定高於我們在全球投資者日提供的長期指導。考慮到一些運營彈性計劃，我們還計劃改進我們的流程量。我們將在第四季度讓 Spiritwood 上線。希望，在幾個星期和一個月內，我們將在巴拉圭恢復壓榨。

We continue to have good crush margins in Europe. Certainly, Europe will be helped by the small crop in Argentina. Also, I think energy prices have moderated a little bit in Europe given the warm summer. So we are also shifting in Europe as much to soybean crush as we can as there is margin there. We're also going to have this year that we didn't have last year, better canola margins. Canola crush margins, certainly and now that we have a Canadian crop, are more in the $120 to $140 per tonne in North America, maybe $70 to $75 in Europe.

我們在歐洲繼續擁有良好的壓榨利潤率。當然，歐洲將受益於阿根廷的低收成。此外，我認為由於夏季溫暖，歐洲的能源價格有所緩和。因此，我們也在歐洲盡可能多地轉向大豆壓榨，因為那裡有利潤。今年我們也將擁有去年沒有的油菜籽利潤率。油菜籽壓榨利潤率，當然，現在我們有加拿大作物，在北美每噸 120 至 140 美元，在歐洲可能為 70 至 75 美元。

So I would say, we are having good crush rates. We're having good meal export demand in the U.S. We're having very strong soybean oil demand here in the U.S. So I will say, in general, we don't see any clouds in the horizon for crush. Crush -- the crush business will have a very strong year in 2023. As I said before, Rob, I wouldn't pinpoint a specific number given the China reopening, given the issues in Ukraine that whether it's not driving crush margins, that may drive energy prices. And certainly, the crops, we are expecting that Brazil needs to have a big crop that will offset the decline in Argentina. And we hope that the U.S. will have a big crop as well, but we still need to go through the weather in both instances. So again, I'll just reiterate a very strong environment for crush as far as we can see.

所以我想說，我們的壓榨率很高。我們在美國有良好的豆粕出口需求。我們在美國有非常強勁的豆油需求。所以我會說，總的來說，我們看不到壓榨的任何烏雲。壓榨業務——壓榨業務將在 2023 年表現強勁。正如我之前所說，Rob，考慮到中國重新開放，考慮到烏克蘭的問題，如果它不推動壓榨利潤率，我不會確定具體數字推動能源價格。當然，收成方面，我們預計巴西需要豐收以抵消阿根廷的減產。我們希望美國也能有豐收，但在這兩種情況下我們仍然需要經歷天氣。因此，我再次重申，就我們所見，粉碎環境非常強大。

The next question today comes from the line of Eric Larson from Seaport Global Securities.

今天的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Eric Larson。

Congratulations on a great year, everyone. So yes, my question comes down to -- we've talked a lot about the bean markets globally and domestically here. But one of the big kind of hangovers right now in the grain market is corn demand. And obviously, I think Brazil is going to be running out of corn here pretty quickly. We may have seen some new Chinese demand coming in here for corn. But how do you look at -- and we have been uncompetitive, I think, just from a currency basis -- from everything else. But could you talk a little bit, Juan, about the corn market and how you see the export situation with that particular commodity?

祝賀大家度過了美好的一年。所以是的，我的問題歸結為——我們在這裡討論了很多關於全球和國內豆類市場的問題。但目前糧食市場最大的後遺症之一是玉米需求。顯然，我認為巴西的玉米很快就會枯竭。我們可能已經看到一些新的中國玉米需求湧入這裡。但是你如何看待——我認為，我們一直沒有競爭力，只是從貨幣的基礎上——從其他方面來看。但是，胡安，你能談談玉米市場以及你如何看待這種特定商品的出口情況嗎？

Yes. I think you called it well. I think that when we had the low water levels in the Q4 that hurt us, of course, we lost some bean business. But the corn business basically is going to be with us until the crop in Brazil -- the harvest in Brazil comes, so it's like middle of the year. So we see that as a very strong business in Ag Services for North America. We also have, unfortunately, the, I think, Ukraine Grain Association has come up with a statement that they don't believe corn for '23 will exceed 18 million tonnes, which is a far cry from the 29 or 30 that they used to produce or we expected.

是的。我覺得你說得好。我認為，當第四季度的低水位對我們造成傷害時，我們當然失去了一些豆類業務。但玉米業務基本上將與我們同在，直到巴西收成——巴西的收成來了，所以現在就像年中。因此，我們認為這是北美農業服務領域非常強大的業務。不幸的是，我認為烏克蘭穀物協會也發表了一份聲明，他們認為 23 年的玉米產量不會超過 1800 萬噸，這與他們過去的 29 或 30 年相去甚遠生產或我們預期。

So demand continues to be solid out there. And we still -- as a world, we need Brazil to have a good crop. Of course, if there are rains and delay a little bit the harvest of soybeans, that may delay a little bit the planting of the next crop. But we hope that in your farm and everybody's farm, corn is growing strongly because we need it. And again, the U.S. will be exporting a lot of that from here until probably July.

因此，那裡的需求繼續保持穩定。我們仍然——作為一個世界，我們需要巴西有好收成。當然，如果下雨，稍微推遲大豆的收穫，可能會推遲下季作物的播種。但我們希望在您的農場和每個人的農場中，玉米長勢強勁，因為我們需要它。再一次，美國將從這裡出口大量產品，直到 7 月。

The final question today comes from the line of Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

今天的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Steve Byrne。

Yes. (inaudible) here again. Just wanted to ask about the press release that was out a couple of days ago about the new biostimulant that ADM released. The NeoVita 43, I think, it's called. And I know that you do have a business where you work with farmers to provide them fertilizers, et cetera. But I think this seems to be the first sign that you're actually rolling out one of your own proprietary products. So I'm just trying to understand a little bit -- both your strategy here. Will you invest more in products for nutrition and crop protection, especially biologicals? And what do you think is the potential market and actually the earnings potential for ADM?

是的。 （聽不清）又來了。只是想問一下幾天前發布的關於 ADM 發布的新生物刺激素的新聞稿。 NeoVita 43，我想，它被稱為。我知道你確實有一項業務，你與農民合作，為他們提供化肥等。但我認為這似乎是您實際上正在推出自己的專有產品的第一個跡象。所以我只是想了解一點——你的策略。您會在營養和作物保護產品（尤其是生物製品）上投入更多嗎？您認為 ADM 的潛在市場和實際盈利潛力是什麼？

Yes. Thank you for the question. Listen, I think that we continue to enlarge our relationships with customers but also with farmers. And as we continue to increase our digital engagement with them, we also increased the bartering and exchange of many, many products. And we have a good relationship with farmers. We have the trust of the farmers. And so every now and then, they bring challenges to us. And I think the challenges of biologicals, if you will, given that we have some work in precision fermentation and things like that, we're always interested in doing that.

是的。感謝你的提問。聽著，我認為我們將繼續擴大與客戶以及農民的關係。隨著我們繼續增加與他們的數字互動，我們也增加了許多產品的易貨和交換。我們與農民有著良好的關係。我們得到了農民的信任。因此，他們時不時地給我們帶來挑戰。我認為生物製品的挑戰，如果你願意的話，鑑於我們在精密發酵和類似的事情上有一些工作，我們總是有興趣這樣做。

So there's always a division out there in ADM exploring and extending a little bit our franchises and our engagement. So I wouldn't be surprised to see experiments or tests here and there. And we do that a lot. We do that in products at our B2C. We do that in products that are biological. We do that in products that relate to the farmer. And we continue to expand. These are things that, over the years, they turn out into big businesses. At one point in time, we started with destination market, and now it's a big part of our franchise. At one point in time, we started with BioSolutions, and now we're making more $0.25 billion of EBITDA on that.

因此，ADM 始終有一個部門在探索和擴展我們的特許經營權和我們的參與度。所以我不會驚訝地看到到處都是實驗或測試。我們經常這樣做。我們在 B2C 的產品中這樣做。我們在生物產品中這樣做。我們在與農民相關的產品中這樣做。我們繼續擴大。多年來，這些東西變成了大企業。在某個時間點，我們從目的地市場開始，現在它是我們特許經營權的重要組成部分。在某個時間點，我們從 BioSolutions 開始，現在我們的 EBITDA 增加了 2.5 億美元。

At one point in time, we started with the differentiated grain that now we call Regen Ag, and now we are in the million acres of that. So I think it's just the innovation part of ADM, and you're going to see green shoots at that. I'm glad you're paying attention to that. And we're going to see expansion of those things into the future. So thank you.

在某個時間點，我們從現在我們稱為 Regen Ag 的差異化穀物開始，現在我們擁有數百萬英畝的土地。所以我認為這只是 ADM 的創新部分，你會看到它的萌芽。我很高興你能注意到這一點。我們將看到這些東西擴展到未來。所以謝謝。

So with that, I think that was the last question for the call today. I'd like to thank you for joining us. Please feel free to follow up with me if you have any other questions. Have a good day, and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

因此，我認為這是今天電話會議的最後一個問題。我要感謝你加入我們。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時與我聯繫。祝你有美好的一天，感謝您抽出寶貴的時間和對 ADM 的興趣。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。