Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the ADM Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加 ADM 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，此電話會議正在錄音中。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Michael Cross, Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

我現在想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係總監 Michael Cross。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Alex. Good morning and welcome to ADM's second quarter earnings webcast. Starting tomorrow, a replay of today's webcast will be available at adm.com.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。早上好，歡迎收聽 ADM 的第二季度收益網絡直播。從明天開始，今天的網絡廣播將在 adm.com 上重播。

Please turn to Slide 2, the company's safe harbor statement, which says that some of our comments and materials constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risks and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the presentation. To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligations to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events.

請轉到幻燈片 2，該公司的安全港聲明，其中表示我們的一些評論和材料構成前瞻性聲明，反映了管理層當前對未來經濟狀況、行業狀況、公司業績和財務業績的看法和估計。這些陳述和材料基於許多具有風險和不確定性的假設和因素。 ADM 在其提交給 SEC 的報告中提供了有關可能導致實際結果與演示文稿中的結果大不相同的假設和因素的額外信息。在適用法律允許的範圍內，ADM 不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

On today's webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will provide an overview of the quarter and highlight some of our accomplishments. Our Chief Financial Officer, Vikram Luthar, will review the drivers of our performance as well as corporate results and financial highlights. Then Juan will make some final comments, and he and Vikram will take your questions.

在今天的網絡廣播中，我們的董事長兼首席執行官胡安·盧西亞諾將概述本季度並強調我們的一些成就。我們的首席財務官 Vikram Luthar 將審查我們業績的驅動因素以及公司業績和財務亮點。然後胡安會做一些最後的評論，他和維克拉姆會回答你的問題。

Please turn to Slide 3. I will now turn the call over to Juan.

請轉到幻燈片 3。我現在將把電話轉給胡安。

Thank you, Michael. This morning, we reported outstanding second quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.15. Adjusted segment operating profit was $1.8 billion, and our trailing fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA approached $6 billion. And our trailing fourth quarter average adjusted ROIC was 11.6%. Our team executed extremely well in the second quarter, navigating dynamic conditions to deliver nutritions to billions. And even as we work tirelessly to serve our customers and consumers around the globe, we are continuing to advance our strategy with productivity initiatives that are improving our efficiency and cost structure and innovation works that is powering profitable growth.

謝謝你，邁克爾。今天上午，我們報告了第二季度調整後每股收益為 2.15 美元。調整後的部門營業利潤為 18 億美元，我們第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 接近 60 億美元。我們第四季度平均調整後的投資回報率為 11.6%。我們的團隊在第二季度表現非常出色，在動態條件下為數十億人提供營養。即使我們孜孜不倦地為全球客戶和消費者提供服務，我們仍在繼續推進我們的戰略，通過提高效率和成本結構的生產力舉措以及推動盈利增長的創新工作。

Slide 4, please. Productivity is how we are improving our execution and optimizing costs is key to our long-term success, but equally as importantly, our productivity work is helping us mitigate the impact of inflation. We have a very strong pipeline of productivity initiatives, and I will be updating you on them regularly.

請幻燈片 4。生產力是我們改進執行的方式，優化成本是我們長期成功的關鍵，但同樣重要的是，我們的生產力工作正在幫助我們減輕通貨膨脹的影響。我們有一個非常強大的生產力計劃管道，我會定期向您更新它們。

There are 2 initiatives I'd like to highlight today. First is a set of operational transformation efforts we are driving across production facilities around the globe and spanning all 3 businesses. Earlier this year, we completed a modernization project in our Marshall, Minnesota corn facility that is unlocking significant new value through enhanced automation, more sophisticated control systems and the increased use of analytics. We're already seeing double-digit returns on the investment we made in that project. This is an example of the kinds of projects we're undertaking across our operational footprint, designed to unlock incremental volumes and deliver safer, more reliable, more cost-efficient operations.

我今天要強調兩項舉措。首先是我們在全球各地的生產設施中推動的一系列運營轉型工作，涵蓋所有 3 個業務。今年早些時候，我們在明尼蘇達州馬歇爾的玉米工廠完成了一個現代化項目，該項目通過增強自動化、更複雜的控制系統和更多地使用分析來釋放重要的新價值。我們已經看到我們在該項目中所做的投資獲得了兩位數的回報。這是我們在整個運營範圍內開展的各種項目的一個示例，旨在釋放增量數量並提供更安全、更可靠、更具成本效益的運營。

Second, as we look to continue to grow returns, we want to focus not only on the numerator but also the denominator. Our original $1 billion challenge and its follow-up, the next billion, help us drive to 10% ROIC. Earlier this year, we launched a new challenge aimed at monetizing assets and optimizing working capital to unlock another $1 billion in cash, helping us to continue to drive returns. In fact, we already realized more than $400 million.

其次，當我們希望繼續增加回報時，我們不僅要關注分子，還要關注分母。我們最初的 10 億美元挑戰及其後續的下一個 10 億美元，幫助我們將投資回報率提高到 10%。今年早些時候，我們發起了一項新挑戰，旨在將資產貨幣化並優化營運資本，以釋放另外 10 億美元的現金，幫助我們繼續提高回報。事實上，我們已經實現了超過 4 億美元。

Next slide, please. We're also advancing our innovation pillar, fueling profitable growth as we continue to expand our capabilities to meet demand across the 3 global trends of food security, health and well-being and sustainability. For example, last November, we added significant new capabilities in our Health & Wellness business with the acquisition of Deerland Probiotics. Demand in the human microbiome space is expected to reach $9.1 billion by 2026. While in animal feed, probiotic demand is expected to grow to $6.2 billion.

請下一張幻燈片。我們還在推進我們的創新支柱，推動盈利增長，同時我們繼續擴大我們的能力以滿足糧食安全、健康和福祉以及可持續發展這三大全球趨勢的需求。例如，去年 11 月，我們通過收購 Deerland Probiotics 在健康與保健業務中增加了重要的新功能。到 2026 年，人類微生物組領域的需求預計將達到 91 億美元。而在動物飼料方面，益生菌的需求預計將增長到 62 億美元。

Deerland, with a broad portfolio of probiotics, prebiotics and enzymes provides a wide array of commercial, R&D and operations-related synergy opportunities to help us meet that demand. And we're taking advantage of those opportunities, from connecting our deal and capabilities with our Biopolis team in Spain to utilize spore probiotics in a functional chocolate bar, to bringing together our expertise to expand our capabilities in pet, a key growth category, to looking across teams to offer new types of dietary supplements.

Deerland 擁有廣泛的益生菌、益生元和酶產品組合，提供廣泛的商業、研發和運營相關協同機會，幫助我們滿足這一需求。我們正在利用這些機會，從將我們的交易和能力與我們在西班牙的 Biopolis 團隊聯繫起來，在功能性巧克力棒中利用孢子益生菌，到匯集我們的專業知識來擴大我們在寵物這一關鍵增長類別中的能力，到尋找跨團隊提供新型膳食補充劑。

Thanks to the strong collaboration across the enterprise, Deerland today is increasing our share of wallet for customers in both human and pet solutions. And we're seeing similar outcomes from other recent investments as well. In the first half of the year, our combined portfolio of 2021 nutrition acquisitions has delivered significantly more OP than we had in our acquisition models.

多虧了整個企業的強大合作，Deerland 今天正在增加我們在人類和寵物解決方案中為客戶提供的錢包份額。我們也從其他近期投資中看到了類似的結果。今年上半年，我們的 2021 年營養收購組合組合提供的 OP 比我們在收購模式中的多得多。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Vikram to talk about our business performance. Vikram?

現在我想把電話轉給 Vikram 來談談我們的業務表現。維克拉姆？

Thanks, Juan. Slide 6, please. The Ag Services and Oilseeds team delivered exceptional results in a dynamic market. Ag Services results more than doubled versus the year ago quarter. Global trade had an outstanding quarter. The destination marketing team's ability to meet customer demand around the globe helped drive strong volumes and margins. And good execution in global freight as well as net timing gains of about $65 million for the quarter contributed to significantly higher year-over-year profits.

謝謝，胡安。請幻燈片 6。 Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 團隊在充滿活力的市場中取得了非凡的成果。與去年同期相比，Ag Services 業績增長了一倍多。全球貿易表現出色。目的地營銷團隊滿足全球客戶需求的能力幫助推動了強勁的銷量和利潤。全球貨運的良好執行以及本季度約 6500 萬美元的淨時間收益促成了顯著高於去年同期的利潤。

North America had a solid performance as export volumes remained strong in a good global demand environment, though year-over-year results were lower due to the prior year's insurance settlement and strong positioning gains. South America results were higher based on stronger origination volumes and better margins driven by strong global grain demand.

北美表現穩健，因為在良好的全球需求環境下出口量保持強勁，但由於上一年的保險結算和強勁的頭寸收益，同比結果有所下降。由於強勁的全球穀物需求推動了更強勁的原產地數量和更高的利潤率，南美地區的業績更高。

Crushing delivered substantially higher results. Strong soy crush margins drove improved performance in all 3 regions as meal and oil demand remained robust. Positive net timing effects of approximately $90 million for the quarter versus the $70 million of negative timing in the year ago period helped drive year-over-year results.

粉碎帶來了更高的結果。由於豆粕和油品需求保持強勁，強勁的大豆壓榨利潤推動了所有 3 個地區的業績改善。本季度約 9000 萬美元的正淨時間效應與去年同期的 7000 萬美元負時間效應相比，有助於推動同比業績。

Refined products and other results were similar to the prior year period as strong demand for biofuels and food oils drove refining premiums and biodiesel margins, offset by approximately $150 million of negative timing effects versus negative $30 million in the prior year quarter. Equity earnings from Wilmar were significantly higher versus the second quarter of 2021.

精煉產品和其他結果與去年同期相似，因為對生物燃料和食用油的強勁需求推動了煉油溢價和生物柴油利潤，但被約 1.5 億美元的負面時機效應所抵消，而去年同期為 3,000 萬美元。與 2021 年第二季度相比，豐益國際的股票收益顯著提高。

Looking ahead for AS&O. We expect Q3, the seasonal transition quarter from the South American to the North American harvest, to deliver results significantly higher than the prior year period driven by continued strong global demand for grains and strong cash -- crush margins.

展望 AS&O。我們預計第三季度，即從南美到北美收穫的季節性過渡季度，由於全球對穀物的持續強勁需求和強勁的現金——壓榨利潤率，其業績將顯著高於去年同期。

Slide 7, please. The Carbohydrate Solutions team delivered a second quarter of extremely strong results. The Starches and Sweeteners subsegment, including ethanol production from our wet mills, delivered much better results due to solid demand as food service volumes reached close to prepandemic levels. Corn coproducts, including strong demand for corn oil and effective risk management, drove higher ethanol and sweetener margins.

請幻燈片 7。碳水化合物解決方案團隊在第二季度取得了極其強勁的業績。由於食品服務量接近大流行前水平，由於需求強勁，澱粉和甜味劑細分市場，包括我們濕磨機的乙醇生產，取得了更好的成果。玉米副產品，包括對玉米油的強勁需求和有效的風險管理，推動了乙醇和甜味劑的利潤率上升。

Biosolutions continued its strong growth with $81 million in year-over-year revenue growth in Q2 and $136 million year-to-date. Vantage Corn Processors results was slightly higher in an environment of good gasoline demand and strong ethanol blending economics. A $50 million recovery from the USDA biofuel producer recovery program helped offset the prior year's strong industrial alcohol results from the now sold Peoria facility as well as valuation losses on ethanol inventory as prices fell late in the quarter.

Biosolutions 繼續保持強勁增長，第二季度收入同比增長 8100 萬美元，年初至今為 1.36 億美元。在汽油需求良好和乙醇混合經濟強勁的環境下，Vantage Corn Processors 的業績略高。從美國農業部生物燃料生產商復甦計劃中回收的 5000 萬美元幫助抵消了去年因現已出售的皮奧里亞設施而產生的強勁工業酒精業績，以及本季度末價格下跌導致乙醇庫存的估值損失。

Looking ahead to the third quarter. We expect results significantly higher versus the third quarter of 2021 driven by steady demand for our products and favorable ethanol blending economics. On Slide 8, the Nutrition business continued on its strong growth trajectory with 19% year-over-year profit growth. Revenues increased by 20% on a constant currency basis and 13% like-for-like, and the team did a good job protecting margins. Human Nutrition delivered higher year-over-year results. Flavors grew revenue in North America, EMEA and South America, though profits were lower due to negative currency effects in EMEA as well as weaker results in APAC. Healthy demand for alternative proteins resulted in strong soy protein volumes and margins as contributions from the Sojaprotein acquisition as well as good demand for texturants drove higher results in Specialty Ingredients.

展望第三季度。由於對我們產品的穩定需求和有利的乙醇混合經濟性，我們預計結果將顯著高於 2021 年第三季度。在幻燈片 8 中，營養業務繼續保持強勁的增長軌跡，利潤同比增長 19%。按固定匯率計算，收入增長了 20%，同比增長 13%，團隊在保護利潤率方面做得很好。人類營養提供了更高的同比結果。食用香精在北美、歐洲、中東和非洲和南美的收入增長，但由於歐洲、中東和非洲的負面貨幣影響以及亞太地區的業績疲軟，利潤下降。對替代蛋白質的健康需求導致大豆蛋白的銷量和利潤率強勁，因為收購 Sojaprotein 的貢獻以及對質構劑的良好需求推動了特種成分的更高業績。

Strength across probiotics, including in the recently acquired Deerland business as well as robust demand for fibers, contributed to a stronger quarter in Health & Wellness. Across the Human Nutrition business, we continue to see low price elasticity and good demand for our diverse portfolio of ingredients and systems as we continue to support our customers with new product and cost-out innovation and drive industry-leading win rates.

益生菌的優勢，包括最近收購的 Deerland 業務以及對纖維的強勁需求，促成了健康與保健季度的強勁增長。在整個人類營養業務中，我們繼續看到對我們多樣化的成分和系統組合的低價格彈性和良好需求，因為我們繼續通過新產品和成本創新來支持我們的客戶，並推動行業領先的贏率。

Animal Nutrition profits were up substantially year-over-year driven by continued strong volumes and margins in amino acids. Looking ahead, we expect third quarter results for Nutrition to be higher year-over-year as the business remains on a trajectory to deliver 20% OP growth for the full year.

在氨基酸持續強勁的銷量和利潤率的推動下，動物營養利潤同比大幅增長。展望未來，我們預計營養的第三季度業績將同比增長，因為該業務仍處於全年 20% OP 增長的軌道上。

Slide 9, please. Other Business results increased from the prior year quarter driven primarily by higher ADM investor services earnings due to higher short-term interest rates. In the corporate lines, unallocated corporate costs of $267 million was slightly higher year-over-year due primarily to higher IT operating and project-related costs and higher costs in the company's centers of excellence. Net interest expense for the quarter increased year-over-year on higher rates and higher short-term borrowings to support working capital needs as well as higher expense for long-term debt.

請幻燈片 9。其他業務業績較上年同期有所增長，主要是由於短期利率較高導致 ADM 投資者服務收益增加。在公司業務中，未分配的公司成本為 2.67 億美元，同比略高，這主要是由於 IT 運營和項目相關成本增加，以及公司卓越中心的成本增加。由於利率上升和短期借款增加以支持營運資金需求以及長期債務支出增加，本季度的淨利息支出同比增加。

The effective tax rate for the second quarter of 2022 was approximately 18%. Based upon our current outlook, we expect full year corporate costs to trend towards $1.3 billion versus our previous outlook of about $1.2 billion, largely due to higher year-over-year interest rates. We still expect our adjusted tax rate to be in the range of 16% to 19%.

2022 年第二季度的有效稅率約為 18%。根據我們目前的展望，我們預計全年企業成本將趨向於 13 億美元，而我們之前的展望約為 12 億美元，這主要是由於同比利率較高。我們仍預計調整後的稅率將在 16% 至 19% 之間。

Next slide, please. Year-to-date operating cash flows before working capital of $3.2 billion are up significantly versus $2.2 billion at the same time last year. Our balance sheet remains solid with a net debt-to-total capital ratio of about 30% and available liquidity of about $11.5 billion. Driven by our strong cash flows and robust earnings, we expect to accelerate our share repurchase program, adding to the $200 million we repurchased in the second quarter of the year with an additional $1 billion in the back half.

請下一張幻燈片。營運資本前的年初至今營運現金流為 32 億美元，與去年同期的 22 億美元相比大幅上升。我們的資產負債表保持穩健，淨債務與總資本的比率約為 30%，可用流動性約為 115 億美元。在我們強勁的現金流和強勁的收益的推動下，我們預計將加快我們的股票回購計劃，增加我們在今年第二季度回購的 2 億美元，下半年再增加 10 億美元。

And of course, the strong cash flows and balance sheet also preserve our flexibility to continue reinvesting in the business and advancing upside growth opportunities. Our CapEx outlook is unchanged at approximately $1.3 billion for the year. Juan?

當然，強勁的現金流和資產負債表也保持了我們繼續對業務進行再投資和推進上行增長機會的靈活性。我們今年的資本支出前景保持不變，約為 13 億美元。胡安？

Thank you, Vikram. Slide 11, please. For context, as we discuss our outlook, I would like to go back to the goals and drivers we laid out at our Global Investor Day in December. We talked about the plan in which our strategic productivity and innovation actions will continue to build a better ADM and align our portfolio to meet accelerating structural demand changes driven by the enduring global trends of food security, health and well-being and sustainability and how that would drive a strong earnings trajectory over the plan horizon.

謝謝你，維克拉姆。請幻燈片 11。作為背景，當我們討論我們的前景時，我想回到我們在 12 月全球投資者日制定的目標和驅動因素。我們談到了我們的戰略生產力和創新行動將繼續建立更好的 ADM 並調整我們的產品組合以滿足由全球糧食安全、健康和福祉和可持續性的持久趨勢推動的加速結構性需求變化的計劃，以及如何做到這一點將在計劃範圍內推動強勁的盈利軌跡。

What has transpired since then is that some of the market factors have reinforced and further enhanced the value proposition of our diverse product portfolio and our integrated global network of assets. This helps drive stronger-than-expected margins. So while we may see some reversion in the medium term, we now believe that margin structures are generally higher than when we have laid out in December.

從那時起發生的事情是，一些市場因素加強並進一步增強了我們多元化產品組合和我們整合的全球資產網絡的價值主張。這有助於推動高於預期的利潤率。因此，雖然我們可能會在中期內看到一些回歸，但我們現在認為保證金結構通常高於我們在 12 月制定的水平。

We are on a trajectory to deliver a very strong second half, resulting in expected full year earnings above $6.50 per share. And as Vikram said, the strong cash flows we are generating will enable us to accelerate the timing of our share repurchase program with $1 billion in repurchases in the back half of the year.

我們有望在下半年實現非常強勁的業績，預計全年收益將超過每股 6.50 美元。正如維克拉姆所說，我們正在產生的強勁現金流將使我們能夠加快我們的股票回購計劃的時間，在今年下半年進行 10 億美元的回購。

As we look beyond that, we have not changed our strategy nor our expectations of strong earnings growth and returns over our plan horizon. And as we laid out at our Global Investor Day, there are upside opportunities to our medium-term plan. But as we have already covered today, we are advancing those now and realizing higher value from them. Higher biosolutions revenue growth, higher Health & Wellness OP contributions, the operational transformation across the enterprise, we expect these and more to add further upside in the medium term.

當我們超越這一點時，我們沒有改變我們的戰略，也沒有改變我們對在我們的計劃範圍內強勁的盈利增長和回報的預期。正如我們在全球投資者日所闡述的那樣，我們的中期計劃存在上行機會。但正如我們今天已經介紹的那樣，我們現在正在推進這些並從中實現更高的價值。更高的生物解決方案收入增長、更高的 Health & Wellness OP 貢獻、整個企業的運營轉型，我們預計這些以及更多將在中期進一步增加上行空間。

The opportunities before us are significant. I'm proud of what our team has achieved, but I'm even more excited about what we're going to deliver tomorrow, next year and in the years to come.

我們面前的機會是巨大的。我為我們的團隊所取得的成就感到自豪，但我對我們明天、明年和未來幾年將要交付的東西更加興奮。

With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

有了這個，接線員，請打開問題線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question for today comes from Ben Bienvenu from Stephens.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Ben Bienvenu。

I want to ask one kind of bigger-picture conceptual question, and then my second question is more near term in nature. The first is on the accelerated share repurchase. I'd be curious to hear a little bit more about all of the decision points that flow into that bigger-picture decision. I would imagine -- you highlighted strong underlying fundamentals in the business. I imagine there's a component associated with working capital as well as some of that frees up with commodity markets cooling a bit.

我想問一種更宏觀的概念性問題，然後我的第二個問題本質上是更近期的。首先是關於加速股票回購。我很想听聽更多關於流入大局決策的所有決策點。我想——你強調了業務中強大的基本面。我想有一個與營運資金相關的組成部分，其中一些部分隨著商品市場的降溫而釋放出來。

I'm curious also to get an update on your longer-term capacity expansion pipeline and how on schedule those build-outs are. And should we think of share repurchase as a lever to throttle up and pull back depending on M&A and CapEx timing of kind of long-lived capital investments? That's my first question.

我也很想了解您的長期產能擴張管道以及這些擴建項目的進度。我們是否應該將股票回購視為一種槓桿，根據長期資本投資的併購和資本支出時機來加速和回調？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. Thank you, Ben. Good question. We are maintaining our balanced capital allocation that we put together some years back. We always said that we're going to take about 30% to 40% of our free cash flow to reinvest in the business, and that's what our strategy of bolt-on and organic growth normally takes. And that will be the priority. We have exciting opportunities ahead of us. So we're going to prioritize our investment plan.

是的。謝謝你，本。好問題。我們正在維持我們幾年前整合的平衡資本配置。我們總是說，我們將把大約 30% 到 40% 的自由現金流用於對業務進行再投資，這就是我們的補強和有機增長戰略通常需要的。這將是首要任務。我們面前有令人興奮的機會。因此，我們將優先考慮我們的投資計劃。

But of course, we've been paying dividends for 90 years. We've been growing dividends for more than 40 years, and we will continue that. We increased dividends 8% this year. And when we're looking at our distribution, again, this 60% to 70%, whether there are strategic opportunities to do M&A or giving back to shareholders, as we said before, at this point in time, when valuations may be correcting and all that, we don't have any significant targets in front of us. Our team continues to look for bolt-ons. And given the significant strength of our cash flows, we have decided to honor that return of shareholder -- of funds to shareholders.

但是，當然，我們已經支付了 90 年的紅利。 40 多年來，我們一直在增加股息，我們將繼續這樣做。我們今年增加了 8% 的股息。當我們再次查看我們的分配時，這 60% 到 70%，是否有進行併購或回饋股東的戰略機會，正如我們之前所說，此時估值可能正在修正和所有這一切，我們面前沒有任何重要的目標。我們的團隊繼續尋找螺栓連接。鑑於我們現金流的強大實力，我們決定兌現股東的回報——將資金返還給股東。

So I would say we will maintain that balanced allocation. We are not -- in the plan when we presented in December, we were looking at the later part of the plan as we were approaching $6 to $7 per share that we will have ability to repurchase about $5 billion of that. Certainly, we will be, as I said in my initial remarks, north of $6.50 today. So some of those buybacks are accelerated to the scenario. So I would say it continues to be consistent in that regard.

所以我想說我們將保持這種平衡的分配。我們不是 - 在我們 12 月提出的計劃中，我們正在研究計劃的後期部分，因為我們接近每股 6 到 7 美元，我們將有能力回購其中約 50 億美元。當然，正如我在最初的發言中所說，我們今天將超過 6.50 美元。因此，其中一些回購加速到了這種情況。所以我想說它在這方面仍然是一致的。

Is there a later part of the question I'm missing or forgetting? The capacity to increase, yes, organic capacity. Listen, we are -- as you can -- Vikram mentioned it, we are increasing our CapEx into $1.3 billion. And we've been accelerating some long lead equipment this year to make sure that our capacity expansions remain on schedule.

我錯過或忘記了問題的後半部分嗎？增加的能力，是的，有機能力。聽著，我們——正如你所能——維克拉姆提到的，我們正在將資本支出增加到 13 億美元。今年我們一直在加速一些長期領先的設備，以確保我們的產能擴張按計劃進行。

So if we look at the big ones that we have right now, whether it's Spiritwood, which is still expected to be online by the harvest of 2023. We are expanding capacity in bioactives in Valencia. That's expected to come in the first quarter of 2023. That's also on schedule. So I would say, in general, across the globe, since we have the ability and the funds, we've been making sure that we eliminated that risk or we minimized that risk. Of course, there is always a risk of labor and labor is tight, especially in North America. But I think at this point in time, we don't have any major deviation to our plans.

因此，如果我們看看我們現在擁有的大型產品，無論是 Spiritwood，它仍有望在 2023 年收穫時上線。我們正在瓦倫西亞擴大生物活性物質的產能。預計將在 2023 年第一季度實現。這也在按計劃進行。所以我想說，總的來說，在全球範圍內，由於我們有能力和資金，我們一直在確保我們消除了這種風險，或者我們把這種風險降到最低。當然，總是有勞動力和勞動力緊張的風險，尤其是在北美。但我認為在這個時間點上，我們的計劃沒有任何重大偏差。

Okay. Great. My second question is related to the grappling of supply-demand that we're seeing right now. Obviously, there, you highlighted your expectation of structurally higher margins across your business. That makes sense given the kind of bigger-picture structural changes in demand that support the profitability of your business over the next several years.

好的。偉大的。我的第二個問題與我們現在看到的供需問題有關。顯然，在那裡，您強調了您對整個業務的結構性更高利潤率的期望。考慮到需求的大局結構變化會在未來幾年支持您的業務盈利能力，這是有道理的。

But we are starting to see demand destruction cyclically as the consumer deteriorates. I think your business is really well positioned. But I'm curious about kind of what you guys are keeping your eyes on relative to a deteriorating underlying consumer and that -- the consequence of that rippling back up the supply chain -- the value chain potentially.

但隨著消費者的惡化，我們開始看到需求週期性地破壞。我認為您的業務定位非常好。但我很好奇你們正在關注的相對於不斷惡化的潛在消費者的哪些方面，以及這種影響供應鏈的後果——潛在的價值鏈。

Yes. Ben, listen, we're watching the demand, of course. We go -- we work very closely with our customers and our farmers on this. I would say we have seen demand substitution, demand shifting here or there. And you see it in retail, maybe to private label. We've seen a little bit to people looking into smaller packaging to make things more affordable. So I would say, if I think of the big categories for ADM, food tends to be, despite all these comments, much more reliable, much more stable in that -- just the essential nature of that.

是的。本，聽著，我們當然在關注需求。我們去——我們在這方面與我們的客戶和我們的農民密切合作。我想說我們已經看到需求替代，需求在這里或那裡轉移。你會在零售中看到它，也許是自有品牌。我們已經看到一些人正在尋找更小的包裝以使事情變得更實惠。所以我想說，如果我想到 ADM 的大類別，儘管有所有這些評論，食品往往更可靠、更穩定——這只是其本質。

I think our fuels business, our biofuels business in general, are more tied to programs that are long term and to initiatives to reduce emissions and improve climate over the long term. So they also tend to be relatively firm, if you will. And we see that with RGD bringing new demand for oil. So if we have any issue in edible oils, it's certainly been more than offset by the new demand on renewables.

我認為我們的燃料業務，我們的總體生物燃料業務，與長期計劃以及長期減少排放和改善氣候的舉措更加相關。因此，如果您願意，它們也往往相對堅固。我們看到 RGD 帶來了對石油的新需求。因此，如果我們在食用油方面遇到任何問題，那肯定會被可再生能源的新需求所抵消。

And I will say the area where maybe we keep a closer look to all that is animal feed. Animal feed has been impacted by this. We estimate something in the range of maybe 10 million to 15 million tons on a global basis that maybe we took out of our SMBs from the globe perspective, not just from our own revenue, from the globe SMBs.

我要說的是我們可能會仔細研究動物飼料的領域。動物飼料已受此影響。我們估計在全球範圍內可能有 1000 萬噸到 1500 萬噸，也許我們從全球的角度從我們的 SMB 中取出，而不僅僅是從我們自己的收入，從全球 SMB。

I think we have seen less of an impact on an OP perspective because as people like to trade down, if you will, or if they were to trade down from beef, chicken is a cheaper protein. It's a more affordable protein. And chicken is where we get all the soybean meal mostly sourced. If you think about what's happening with soybean meal, it is -- it has a cost advantage to corn. So it continues to have a high proportion in the Russians on things that are, if you will, more demanded right now like poultry.

我認為我們對 OP 觀點的影響較小，因為人們喜歡降價交易，如果你願意，或者如果他們從牛肉中降價，雞肉是一種更便宜的蛋白質。這是一種更實惠的蛋白質。雞肉是我們獲得所有豆粕的主要來源。如果您考慮豆粕的情況，那就是——它比玉米具有成本優勢。因此，如果你願意的話，它在俄羅斯人中的比例仍然很高，如果你願意的話，現在需要更多的東西，比如家禽。

When we go to Nutrition, I think you said it in your -- in the question is we are well positioned in some of the applications that are growing the fastest. and of course, not completely insulated. To a certain degree, we haven't seen significant drops at this point in time. So our expansions and -- continue forward. And you saw in our remarks, our -- the acquisitions we made last year are actually performing from an OP perspective better than in the economic model we put together.

當我們談到營養時，我想你在你的 - 問題是我們在一些增長最快的應用程序中處於有利地位。當然，也不是完全絕緣的。在某種程度上，我們目前還沒有看到明顯的下降。所以我們的擴張和 - 繼續前進。你在我們的評論中看到，我們去年進行的收購實際上從 OP 的角度來看比在我們匯總的經濟模型中表現得更好。

Congratulations on the results.

祝賀結果。

Thank you. Appreciate it.

謝謝你。欣賞它。

Our next question comes from Ben Theurer from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

So my first question is also related a little bit to the picture you draw and you laid out just about 7, 8 months ago during the Capital Markets Day back in December, and you talked about the path to get to the $6 to $7. Now you're just at $6.50 for this year. But the one thing that kind of pops out is the significant strength and the up we've been seeing on the return on invested capital. And you still say your long-term objective is 10%, but now we've been consistently gone higher.

因此，我的第一個問題也與您繪製的圖片有點相關，您在大約 7、8 個月前的 12 月資本市場日期間提出，您談到了達到 6 美元到 7 美元的路徑。現在你今年只需 6.50 美元。但是突然出現的一件事是我們在投資資本回報方面看到的顯著實力和上升。你仍然說你的長期目標是 10%，但現在我們一直在走高。

So if we put it like into the context and your comments of the margin structure to remain higher, how should we think conceptually over the medium to long term? Where is your real ROIC objective given that you've been consistently above that 10% level? And what does that mean for your potential to return cash to shareholders via dividends, buybacks versus then, ultimately, the CapEx needs?

因此，如果我們把它放在上下文中並且您對利潤率結構的評論保持較高，我們應該如何在中長期概念上思考？鑑於您一直高於 10% 的水平，您真正的 ROIC 目標在哪裡？這對您通過股息、回購和最終資本支出需求向股東返還現金的潛力意味著什麼？

Thanks, Ben, for the question. So just to give you some context, when we decided on the 10% ROIC target, it was based on an expectation of about 300 basis points above our long-term cost of capital. The long-term cost of capital has been around 7% for some time now. But as we look forward and we see interest rates on the rise, there is likelihood that over the medium term, the long-term WACC is going to increase. We still want to maintain our buffer or our spread versus that long-term WACC.

謝謝，本，這個問題。因此，為了給您一些背景信息，當我們決定 10% 的 ROIC 目標時，它是基於比我們的長期資本成本高出約 300 個基點的預期。一段時間以來，長期資本成本一直在 7% 左右。但隨著我們向前看，我們看到利率在上升，從中期來看，長期 WACC 可能會增加。我們仍然希望保持我們的緩衝或我們的價差與長期 WACC 相比。

So in short, yes, we are actually looking at growing our ROIC beyond the 10%. We haven't firmly established a new target. But clearly, as you've seen, we are well ahead of 10% on the back of a strong demand outlook for the medium term as well a strong discipline on the denominator from a balance sheet perspective.

所以簡而言之，是的，我們實際上正在考慮將我們的投資回報率提高到 10% 以上。我們還沒有堅定地確立新的目標。但顯然，正如您所見，由於中期需求前景強勁以及從資產負債表的角度來看分母的嚴格紀律，我們遠遠領先於 10%。

So in terms of the capital allocation and the forward outlook, Ben, I think it's consistent with what Juan said. We expect we are going to be very disciplined and balanced in terms of how we deploy that capital, both in terms of reinvesting in the business. And by the way, the opportunities to reinvest in the business are significant. Juan mentioned some, including the operational transformation. And much of that is not even baked into the medium-term plan that we highlighted.

所以就資本配置和前景而言，本，我認為這與胡安所說的一致。我們希望我們在如何部署資本方面將非常自律和平衡，無論是在對業務進行再投資方面。順便說一句，對業務進行再投資的機會非常重要。胡安提到了一些，包括運營轉型。其中大部分甚至沒有納入我們強調的中期計劃。

So we anticipate there likely will be some additional reinvestment in the business, but that should still leave us enough flexibility to do share buyback, potentially even in excess of $5 billion as well as continue our pace of dividend growth as we've done historically over the last 40-plus years.

因此，我們預計該業務可能會有一些額外的再投資，但這仍然應該讓我們有足夠的靈活性來進行股票回購，甚至可能超過 50 億美元，並繼續我們的股息增長步伐，就像我們過去所做的那樣過去 40 多年。

Got it. That sounds very promising, Vikram. And then just coming back on the growth and what's being delivered within the Nutrition segment, just to kind of frame it and understand it well what you're seeing into the back half here because clearly, you kind of reconfirmed the 20-ish percent growth in OP income. We've had a very strong first half. You expect next quarter to be better.

知道了。這聽起來很有希望，維克拉姆。然後只是回到增長和營養部門內正在交付的內容，只是為了對它進行框架並很好地理解你在這裡看到的後半部分，因為很明顯，你再次確認了 20% 左右的增長在 OP 收入中。我們的上半場表現非常強勁。您預計下個季度會更好。

Is there anything where you think there could be a little bit of a headwind in the more short term just because of people maybe down-trading on the consumption side? You mentioned a little bit maybe the packaging side going to smaller sizes, et cetera, but to understand a little bit the risks versus the opportunities within Nutrition.

有沒有什麼你認為在更短期內可能會因為人們可能在消費方面進行減持而在短期內出現一點阻力的地方？你提到了一點，也許包裝方面會變得更小，等等，但要了解一點營養領域的風險與機會。

Yes. Ben, first of all, Nutrition is the business where we're probably exposed the most to the supply chain issues that everybody is talking about because we have more variety of raw materials that we consume in all these formulations. So that is always something that the team works very well to overcome. But that's an issue we watch very closely.

是的。 Ben，首先，營養是我們可能最容易接觸到每個人都在談論的供應鏈問題的行業，因為我們在所有這些配方中消耗的原材料種類更多。因此，這始終是團隊努力克服的問題。但這是我們密切關注的問題。

The second is, as you know, that business is also very strong in Europe, so there is a ForEx exposure that we keep on looking. And I mentioned at the beginning that Animal Nutrition volumes are a little bit more difficult, I think that given the price point where we are. So I would say those are the 3 levers that we keep on looking to make sure that we balance that. I would have to say the business has done a terrific job of offsetting all that.

第二個是，如您所知，歐洲的業務也非常強勁，因此我們一直在尋找外匯敞口。我在開始時提到動物營養量有點困難，我認為考慮到我們所處的價格點。所以我想說這些是我們一直在尋求確保平衡的三個槓桿。我不得不說，企業在抵消這一切方面做得非常出色。

And again, we still believe in our enhanced guidance from 15% to 20% for this year. We're still going to do that. And the business, again, as I've said many, many times before, it's clearly in its path to achieve our $1 billion operating profit objective probably next year. So we feel good about the business, but it's not without a lot of active management, if you will.

再一次，我們仍然相信我們今年將指導從 15% 提高到 20%。我們仍然會這樣做。再說一次，正如我之前多次說過的那樣，這項業務顯然正在朝著可能在明年實現我們 10 億美元營業利潤目標的道路上前進。因此，我們對這項業務感覺良好，但如果您願意的話，也不是沒有很多積極的管理。

Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當薩繆爾森。

Juan, so I wanted to maybe dig into the outlook on oilseeds a little bit. In your prepared remarks, you alluded to a mid-cycle or normalized medium-term kind of margin structure that moves higher, and I'd love to get a little bit more color on how your view over the medium term has evolved there and especially in the context of a North American kind of industry that's in the midst of some pretty healthy capacity expansions by you and many others.

胡安，所以我想深入了解一下油籽的前景。在你準備好的評論中，你提到了一種中期週期或標準化的中期保證金結構，這種結構會走高，我很想了解一下你對中期的看法是如何演變的，尤其是在北美行業的背景下，您和其他許多人正在進行一些非常健康的產能擴張。

Yes. Adam, listen, we continue to see a strong demand for meal and oil. North America has many advantages. North America has the beans and North America has a robust domestic consumption. North America has the new demand for oil. So that makes, of course, soybean meal more competitive in the world.

是的。亞當，聽著，我們繼續看到對粗粉和油的強勁需求。北美有很多優勢。北美有豆類，北美有強勁的國內消費。北美對石油有了新的需求。當然，這使得豆粕在世界上更具競爭力。

We continue to see good margins and good volumes in poultry as -- again, as the consumer favors that meat. We continue to see soybean meal advantage to corn. As I said before, in the Russian, that continues to have high inclusion rates. We see China recovering from COVID, so activity coming back. And we see Argentina pretty much given the current financial issues outside of the markets in terms of their aggressiveness. So I would say the scenario that we've been seeing, it continues with strength going forward.

我們繼續看到家禽的高利潤和良好的銷量——再次，因為消費者喜歡這種肉。我們繼續看到豆粕對玉米的優勢。正如我之前所說，在俄羅斯，這仍然具有很高的包容率。我們看到中國正在從 COVID 中恢復過來，所以活動又回來了。鑑於當前市場之外的金融問題，我們認為阿根廷的侵略性非常強。所以我想說我們一直在看到的情況，它會繼續向前發展。

I think that's kind of what we see at the moment. So Q3 is strong. I would say maybe if I go to canola, canola has been -- margins have popped. So maybe we had -- we didn't have that in the past. Now we have, they're very strong. So we see a strong demand for biodiesel. I'm just trying to go mentally through all the businesses. And as we said before, Wilmar has been doing very good.

我認為這就是我們目前所看到的。所以第三季度很強勁。我會說，如果我去油菜籽，油菜籽一直是——利潤已經暴漲。所以也許我們有 - 我們過去沒有。現在我們有了，他們非常強大。因此，我們看到對生物柴油的強勁需求。我只是想在精神上通過所有的業務。正如我們之前所說，豐益國際一直做得很好。

So we don't see any significant clouds in the horizon right now. We have good expectations. We think that for the second half, the U.S. will become the place to export for corn and soybeans. So I think that exports should come to the U.S. from the period of September to maybe February or maybe even March. So we will have to watch logistics and whether logistics can allow us to execute a strong export season. But that's probably the only thing out there that I will be thinking, Adam, in terms of puts and takes.

所以我們現在在地平線上看不到任何重要的雲。我們有很好的期望。我們認為下半年，美國將成為玉米和大豆的出口地。所以我認為出口到美國的時間應該是從 9 月到 2 月甚至 3 月。因此，我們將不得不關注物流，以及物流是否能讓我們實現強勁的出口旺季。但這可能是我唯一會考慮的事情，亞當，就看跌期權而言。

Okay. That's all really helpful. And if I could maybe just switch gears over to Carbohydrate Solutions and specifically Starches and Sweeteners. I mean very strong kind of first half results. And I guess I'm trying to think about the contributions of between kind of volume growth, better ethanol profitability, coproducts and kind of -- and risk management and just that thing could be your most mature business, and seeing some very, very healthy absolute and year-over-year performance and trying to just maybe just aggregate some of the drivers there a little bit.

好的。這真的很有幫助。如果我可以轉而使用碳水化合物解決方案，特別是澱粉和甜味劑。我的意思是上半年的結果非常強勁。而且我想我正在嘗試考慮在產量增長、更好的乙醇盈利能力、副產品和風險管理之間的貢獻，而這可能是你最成熟的業務，並且看到一些非常非常健康的業務絕對和同比表現，並試圖將其中的一些驅動因素匯總一下。

Yes. Sure. So Adam, just breaking it down into volume margin and mix. In Sweeteners and Starches, from a volume perspective, actually, we saw volumes in North America higher year-over-year in the first half. And that is different from what you may have heard generally in the marketplace. We clearly benefit from an integrated network that enables us to deliver to our customers effectively and efficiently. And in some cases, we've actually also imported tapioca starch, for example, from Europe to meet that demand. So volume has been strong.

是的。當然。所以亞當，只是把它分解成體積利潤和混合。實際上，從銷量的角度來看，在甜味劑和澱粉方面，我們看到上半年北美的銷量同比增長。這與您在市場上通常聽到的不同。我們顯然受益於一個集成的網絡，使我們能夠有效和高效地為我們的客戶提供服務。在某些情況下，我們實際上還從歐洲進口了木薯澱粉以滿足這一需求。所以成交量一直很強勁。

In terms of margin, clearly, we benefited from higher coproduct values, including corn oil in particular. So that's also helped in terms of the net corn and effective margins for Sweeteners and Starches. And from a mix perspective, we talked about biosolutions driving more and more growth, higher than what we had anticipated. So on all 3 fronts, in terms of volume, margin and mix, S&S looks brighter than what we had anticipated at the beginning of the year.

就利潤率而言，顯然，我們受益於更高的副產品價值，尤其是玉米油。因此，這也有助於提高甜味劑和澱粉的淨玉米和有效利潤率。從混合的角度來看，我們談到了生物解決方案推動越來越多的增長，高於我們的預期。因此，在所有 3 個方面，就數量、利潤率和組合而言，S&S 看起來比我們年初預期的要亮。

In terms of ethanol also, if you think about similar way of thinking about volumes, volumes have been strong in terms of gasoline demand locally. Strong exports expected. We've had strong exports. Outlook for exports about 1.6 billion gallons for the year. In terms of margins, we've also again benefited from the fact that we've had good coproduct values particularly, again, in DCO. And that has helped us maintain margins.

就乙醇而言，如果您考慮類似的交易量思考方式，那麼就當地汽油需求而言，交易量一直很強勁。預計出口強勁。我們的出口強勁。展望全年出口約16億加侖。在利潤方面，我們也再次受益於我們擁有良好的副產品價值這一事實，尤其是在 DCO 方面。這有助於我們保持利潤率。

The other aspect is the -- our views have been finalized. So that puts -- removes the cloud from the regulatory landscape, at least for 2022. And gasoline and ethanol blending economics remain fantastic. If you include RIN values, that's above $2 relative to RBOB today. So I think based on all those facts, we think Q3 is going to be stronger quarter-over-quarter. And our outlook for the year is also very constructive.

另一方面是——我們的觀點已經最終確定。因此，至少在 2022 年，監管環境中的陰雲消失了。汽油和乙醇的混合經濟學仍然非常出色。如果您包括 RIN 值，則相對於今天的 RBOB，它高於 2 美元。因此，我認為基於所有這些事實，我們認為第三季度將比上一季度更強勁。我們對今年的展望也很有建設性。

Just to clarify, Vikram, because I don't think that was the nuance you said in the prepared remarks. You said -- in the prepared remarks you said significantly higher year-over-year and you're saying all of Carbohydrate Solutions will be higher quarter-over-quarter as well. I just want to be clear on that point.

澄清一下，維克拉姆，因為我認為這不是你在準備好的評論中所說的細微差別。你說 - 在準備好的評論中，你說同比顯著更高，你說所有碳水化合物解決方案的季度環比也會更高。我只是想明確這一點。

No. My comments were specifically quarter-over-quarter, significantly higher quarter-over-quarter for Q3. And what I just emphasized as well, we are constructive for the outlook for the full year.

不，我的評論特別是季度環比，第三季度的季度環比明顯更高。我剛才也強調，我們對全年的前景具有建設性。

Our next question comes from Ken Zaslow from Bank of Montreal.

我們的下一個問題來自蒙特利爾銀行的 Ken Zaslow。

Just a couple of questions. One is, how much dollar amount do you expect to increase in 2023 from your cost savings and your harvesting of your growth investments? How do we kind of think about that for 2023 in terms of the dollar amounts that's going to be coming out from both your cost savings and your investments in growth?

只是幾個問題。一是，您預計 2023 年您節省的成本和收穫的增長投資會增加多少美元？我們如何看待 2023 年的成本節約和增長投資將帶來的美元金額？

So I think, Ken, just providing context, going back to the Global Investor Day in terms of the framework, right, we talked about productivity and innovation driving about $1.1 billion in aggregate each. And then we expected market forces should be about $1 billion. In terms of 2023, we haven't gone through the specific plan yet, right? We are still working through that. But you could assume kind of a flat line, roughly speaking, over that 4-year time frame.

所以我認為，Ken，只是提供背景信息，在框架方面回到全球投資者日，對，我們談到了生產力和創新，各自推動了大約 11 億美元。然後我們預計市場力量應該在 10 億美元左右。至於2023年，具體的計劃我們還沒有走完對吧？我們仍在努力解決這個問題。但是，粗略地說，在 4 年的時間框架內，你可以假設一條平坦的線。

What I would submit to you, Ken, is over the last 3 or 4 months, as Juan mentioned, we see additional opportunities on the horizon as it relates to operational transformation with digitization and automation. We talked about the Marshall example. If we multiply that Marshall example, the upside could be even more. But that's something that we are still fleshing out, and we will be prepared in the foreseen quarters to provide you a little more granularity on that. Juan?

正如 Juan 所說，我要向您提交的內容是在過去 3 或 4 個月內，我們看到了與數字化和自動化的運營轉型相關的更多機會。我們談到了馬歇爾的例子。如果我們乘以那個馬歇爾的例子，好處可能更大。但這是我們仍在充實的東西，我們將在可預見的幾個季度做好準備，為您提供更多的細節。胡安？

Yes. Ken, what I would like to add to what Vikram said is that if I think back to December, there are 2 things that are different. A lot of the productivity efforts this year have been used to offset inflation, and I think the team has done a terrific job of protecting margins in that sense. Those productivity efforts continue. And as inflation may be recedes next year, we might see that -- more of that coming to actually improve our productivity versus just offsetting inflation.

是的。肯，我想補充一下維克拉姆所說的話，如果我回想 12 月，有兩件事是不同的。今年的許多生產力努力都被用來抵消通貨膨脹，我認為團隊在保護利潤率方面做得非常出色。這些生產力努力仍在繼續。隨著明年通脹可能會下降，我們可能會看到——更多的是實際提高我們的生產力，而不是僅僅抵消通脹。

The second thing that I noticed and I tried to make a point in my prepared remarks is that we probably see innovation -- a little bit more activity in innovation. I think that as customers are trying to fight inflation, I think that bringing a newness, bringing new categories, new innovation, we've seen that in Nutrition and other pieces of the portfolio. So I think there is an opportunity there.

我注意到並試圖在我準備好的評論中指出的第二件事是，我們可能會看到創新——創新中的更多活動。我認為，當客戶試圖對抗通貨膨脹時，我認為帶來新鮮感、新品類、新創新，我們已經在營養品和其他產品組合中看到了這一點。所以我認為那裡有機會。

And some of the things that were not included in our 5-year estimate, whether it was some of the growth on Health & Wellness or some of the biosolutions opportunities and all that, are coming stronger and faster than maybe we anticipated. So Vikram said it, we normally start the planning season maybe late September or October. So we're going to be looking at '23 there. But I think we're going to have a lot of puts and takes on a scenario that is very dynamic. But we feel good about the initiatives we can control, let's say.

一些未包含在我們 5 年估計中的事情，無論是健康與保健方面的一些增長，還是一些生物解決方案的機會等等，都比我們預期的更強大和更快。所以維克拉姆說，我們通常會在 9 月下旬或 10 月開始計劃季節。所以我們將在那裡看'23。但我認為我們將有很多投入和承擔一個非常動態的場景。但是我們對我們可以控制的舉措感覺很好，比如說。

Great. Just a clarification question. You talked about the $6.50 number. That includes share repurchases. Is that -- does that -- but yes, underlying fundamentals seem stronger than maybe you expected. Can you reconcile that? Because if it includes the share repurchase, I would argue that maybe it should better than that. I don't know if you're being conservative. I'm not trying to pinpoint you. Just -- there was just some incongruence in terms of the accelerated share repurchase and just kind of sticking to that $6.50 number. I just wanted to touch base with that -- touch base on that, if you could help us out on that.

偉大的。只是一個澄清問題。你談到了 6.50 美元的數字。這包括股票回購。是這樣嗎 - 是這樣 - 但是是的，潛在的基本面似乎比你預期的要強。你能調和嗎？因為如果它包括股票回購，我認為也許它應該比這更好。不知道你算不算保守。我不是要精確定位你。只是 - 在加速股票回購方面只是有些不一致，只是有點堅持這個 6.50 美元的數字。我只是想以此為基礎——如果你能幫助我們解決這個問題，請以它為基礎。

Yes. So Ken, just to be clear, we did not say an ASR. We did not say accelerated share repurchase, right? I want to make sure that we clarify that comment. We did say that we are going to do $1 billion in the back half of the year. And as you well know is EPS impact of that, given the averaging, is pretty minimized for this calendar year. So the impact, whether you consider a share repurchase in the $6.50 number or not is frankly insignificant for 2022.

是的。所以，Ken，為了清楚起見，我們沒有說 ASR。我們沒有說加速股票回購，對吧？我想確保我們澄清該評論。我們確實說過我們將在今年下半年做 10 億美元。眾所周知，考慮到平均水平，這一日曆年對每股收益的影響非常小。因此，坦率地說，無論您是否考慮以 6.50 美元的價格回購股票，對 2022 年的影響都微不足道。

Okay. So just putting this all together, even as fundamentals kind of stabilize at this higher level, your share repurchases, your productivity and your growth initiatives can propel earnings higher in 2023 even if fundamentals kind of stabilize and not -- not to say we're peaking, I don't want to use that word, but if we stabilize at a higher level. Is that fair way to think about it, that your interactions, those 3 components, can drive earnings growth in 2023? And I'll leave it there.

好的。因此，只要把這一切放在一起，即使基本面穩定在這個更高的水平，你的股票回購、你的生產力和你的增長計劃也可以推動 2023 年的收益更高，即使基本面穩定而不是——不是說我們是peaking，我不想用這個詞，但如果我們穩定在更高的水平。這樣考慮是否公平，您的互動，這三個組成部分，可以推動 2023 年的收入增長？我會把它留在那裡。

Ken, the way I think about it, let me share that, is we need to have in ADM certain ambidexterity. On one side, we have a team that executes on opportunities presented by the market. And the team is executing on great opportunities this year. We don't control that all the time. We control our execution, but we don't control the opportunities that pop based on the macro environment.

肯，我的想法，讓我分享一下，我們需要在 ADM 中具有一定的二元性。一方面，我們有一個團隊來執行市場提供的機會。並且團隊在今年抓住了巨大的機會。我們並不總是控制它。我們控制我們的執行，但我們不控制基於宏觀環境彈出的機會。

On the other hand, we are committed to keep improving the company. So -- and that's what we committed in December over the 5-year plan. So to the extent that those forces, whether favorable or negative, offset our productivity and innovation, at times, we're going to see more of that effect and at times, we're going to see less. So we know we're going to grow earnings over the next 5 years based on all that.

另一方面，我們致力於不斷改進公司。所以——這就是我們在 12 月在 5 年計劃中承諾的內容。因此，就這些力量而言，無論是有利的還是消極的，都會抵消我們的生產力和創新，有時，我們會看到更多這種影響，有時，我們會看到更少。因此，我們知道基於所有這些，我們將在未來 5 年內增加收入。

We have not gotten to 2023 at this point in time. So I want to make sure that people don't hear that what we're going to do is a promise to grow earnings every year. We cannot control all the environment in the world, but we can control that we get better and we can control that we can maximize our execution on the opportunities provided. Will 2023 provide the same opportunities of 2022? Unclear at this point in time, and we need to go through our scenarios. But I think we're going to feel -- we feel very good, as I said, on the team's ability to execute.

目前我們還沒有到 2023 年。所以我想確保人們不會聽到我們要做的是承諾每年增加收入。我們無法控制世界上所有的環境，但我們可以控制我們變得更好，我們可以控制我們可以最大限度地利用所提供的機會執行。 2023 年會提供與 2022 年相同的機會嗎？目前尚不清楚，我們需要通過我們的場景。但我認為我們會感覺到——正如我所說，我們對球隊的執行能力感覺非常好。

Some of the macro that we're seeing in terms of demand, demand for food has been growing over the last 15 years at 1.8% per year. You can argue that at times, we are getting to the peak of arable land being brought into production, that at times, we are hitting the peak of maybe even yield in the area. So we think that although margins may not stay at this level, if they're going to stabilize, they're going to stabilize at higher level than in the past. And that's where we based our forecast in December, and we are maintaining that. So we feel good about continue to grow earnings. We haven't gotten to the specific 2023 number yet.

我們在需求方面看到的一些宏觀情況，食品需求在過去 15 年中以每年 1.8% 的速度增長。你可以爭辯說，有時，我們正在達到耕地投入生產的高峰，有時，我們正在達到該地區甚至產量的高峰。所以我們認為，儘管利潤率可能不會停留在這個水平，但如果它們要穩定下來，它們將穩定在比過去更高的水平。這就是我們在 12 月做出預測的依據，我們將保持這一點。因此，我們對繼續增長收益感到滿意。我們還沒有得到具體的 2023 年數字。

Our next question comes from Steve Byrne of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的史蒂夫伯恩。

Vikram, you had some constructive comments about third quarter for Ag Solutions and Oilseeds (sic) [Ag Services and Oilseeds], and I wanted to specifically ask you about which of those 2 big businesses is primarily driving that favorable outlook? And in Ag Services, what is it? What regions of the world? Where do you see that strength coming from? And then one more for you on that. And if there is less crop production in the world in 2022 just from significantly less fertilizer applications, is that net positive or net negative for you? You could have tighter supplies but less volume.

Vikram，您對 Ag Solutions 和 Oilseeds (sic) [Ag Services and Oilseeds] 第三季度提出了一些建設性的意見，我想特別問您，這兩家大企業中的哪一個主要推動了這種有利的前景？在 Ag Services 中，它是什麼？世界哪些地區？你從哪裡看出這種力量？然後再給你一個。如果到 2022 年世界作物產量減少，僅僅是因為施肥量顯著減少，那麼這對您來說是淨正面還是淨負面？你可以有更緊的供應，但數量更少。

Yes. So thanks for the question, Steve. In terms of AS&O -- I'll break it up. In terms of AS, we talked about destination marketing being very strong, right? So that's part of global trading. We anticipate that to remain strong given our ability to deliver to customers around the globe. And actually, we have -- the globally integrated network we have enables us to do that very effectively and efficiently. So we believe that's going to be a continued contributor of the growth.

是的。所以謝謝你的問題，史蒂夫。就 AS&O 而言——我會分解它。在AS方面，我們談到目的地營銷非常強大，對嗎？所以這是全球貿易的一部分。鑑於我們向全球客戶交付產品的能力，我們預計這一點將保持強勁。實際上，我們擁有 - 我們擁有的全球集成網絡使我們能夠非常有效地做到這一點。因此，我們相信這將成為增長的持續貢獻者。

You think about also where we are positioned as a company in North America and South America. Where is the world likely going to come for grain in the back half of this year? It's probably going to be in North America. And with a reasonable crop that we expect right now, we should be well positioned to be able to benefit from that, given our footprint. So I think the strength in destination marketing within global trade as well as our asset footprint and the dearth of grain around the globe in light of what's happened gives us good flexibility and constructive margin outlook for the back half.

您還要考慮我們作為一家公司在北美和南美的定位。今年下半年，全球糧食將何去何從？它可能會在北美。鑑於我們現在所期望的合理收成，鑑於我們的足跡，我們應該能夠從中受益。因此，我認為全球貿易中目的地營銷的實力以及我們的資產足跡以及鑑於所發生的事情在全球範圍內的糧食短缺，為我們提供了良好的靈活性和建設性的後半部利潤率前景。

On the Oilseeds side, the fundamentals remain strong. I mean you've seen that the demand for oil both on the food side as well as RGD remains strong. So North American crush margins should be constructive. As soybean meal remains a very efficient and cost-effective protein substitute for even wheat as wheat prices, even though they've come up, they're still relatively expensive. So soybean meal remains an important feed for all types of protein and especially for poultry, and you've seen the number of poultry rising. So we're constructive for crush margins in North America.

在油籽方面，基本面依然強勁。我的意思是您已經看到食品方面和 RGD 對石油的需求仍然強勁。所以北美壓榨利潤應該是建設性的。由於與小麥價格一樣，豆粕仍然是一種非常有效且具有成本效益的蛋白質替代品，即使小麥價格上漲，它們仍然相對昂貴。因此，豆粕仍然是所有類型蛋白質，尤其是家禽的重要飼料，而且您已經看到家禽數量不斷增加。因此，我們對北美的壓榨利潤率具有建設性。

And even with biodiesel as well, that's also providing another avenue to support crush margins even in Europe. So crush margin outlook for the back half is strong in terms of the fundamentals that I highlighted. So candidly, the strength in AS&O is both on AS as well as O for the back half of this year.

即使是生物柴油，這也提供了另一種支持壓榨利潤的途徑，即使在歐洲也是如此。因此，就我強調的基本面而言，後半部分的壓榨利潤率前景強勁。坦率地說，今年下半年，AS&O 的優勢在於 AS 和 O。

And you made a comment on one of the slides about investing in this sustainable agriculture initiative of FBN. My question for you on that is, how meaningful of an opportunity do you think this is for you? Are your food company customers willing to pay a premium to you, and thus the farmer, for grains and oilseeds that are produced in various sustainable ways? Is this a niche? Or is this a potentially meaningful portion of your origination business?

您對其中一張關於投資 FBN 可持續農業計劃的幻燈片發表了評論。我的問題是，你認為這對你來說有多大意義？您的食品公司客戶是否願意為以各種可持續方式生產的穀物和油籽向您以及農民支付溢價？這是一個利基嗎？或者這是您的原創業務中潛在的有意義的部分？

Yes. Steve, this is Juan. We are building this. I think we have a division now within the business to look at these certified grains, if you will, or differentiated grains. There is certainly a consumer push into this that we feel through the CPGs and having the desire to engage in these transactions with us. So it continues to build.

是的。史蒂夫，這是胡安。我們正在建造這個。我認為我們現在在業務中有一個部門來研究這些經過認證的穀物，如果你願意的話，或者是差異化的穀物。我們通過 CPG 感受到了消費者對此的推動，並希望與我們進行這些交易。所以它繼續建造。

I don't think it's going to be meaningful to our earnings over the next 2, 3 years, but it's something that is aligned with sustainability trends. It's aligned with the ability of the whole industry to decarbonize and become better. So it makes us more sustainable. But it is growing. It's still small, but it continues to accelerate.

我認為這對我們未來 2、3 年的收益沒有意義，但它符合可持續發展趨勢。它與整個行業脫碳和變得更好的能力相一致。因此，它使我們更具可持續性。但它正在增長。它仍然很小，但它繼續加速。

So I don't think you should expect an OP impact over the next 2 years, but we're building a good position here. And with partners like FBN and all that, we continue to improve the economics and simplify the recognition to farmers as they embrace sustainable practices. So there is an economic motive or result later on, maybe in the planning cycle. At this point in time, it's more a sustainability thing that we do to help our customers as they need more of this.

所以我認為你不應該期望在未來 2 年內對 OP 產生影響，但我們正在建立一個良好的位置。與 FBN 等合作夥伴一起，我們將繼續改善經濟效益並簡化對農民的認可，因為他們採用可持續做法。因此，稍後會有經濟動機或結果，可能在規劃週期中。在這個時間點上，我們所做的更多是可持續性的事情，以幫助我們的客戶，因為他們需要更多這樣的東西。

Our next question comes from Tom Palmer of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tom Palmer。

Maybe I'll just start off on the crushing side. Margin info in the earnings presentation was encouraging as was your second half commentary. At the same time, we saw board crush at least temporarily weaken going back a month or 2. So it looks like it hasn't carried forward in terms of board crush or in spot as much but -- and nor have much bearing on third quarter results, but I hope to get at least a little bit of color on what happened and why the impact was so temporary.

也許我會從破碎的一面開始。收益報告中的保證金信息和你下半年的評論一樣令人鼓舞。與此同時，我們看到板面擠壓至少暫時減弱了一兩個月。所以看起來它在板面擠壓或現貨方面並沒有那麼大，但是 - 對第三個也沒有太大影響季度結果，但我希望至少能對發生的事情以及影響如此短暫的原因有所了解。

Yes. I think, Tom, what we saw -- of course, base has became a little bit tighter in the U.S. and soy, and we saw a little bit of palm oil correction that maybe impacted some of the oil. So you get board compressed a little bit. In reality, the cash markets have never moved, and they remain very constructive and very strong. And now you have seen how board crush have bounced back.

是的。我認為，湯姆，我們所看到的——當然，美國和大豆的鹼基變得有點緊縮，我們看到棕櫚油的一些調整可能會影響一些石油。所以你的電路板被壓縮了一點。實際上，現金市場從未動搖，它們仍然非常有建設性和非常強勁。現在你已經看到了董事會粉碎是如何反彈的。

I think that what we need to remember is like before all this volatility, whether it's the war or this or that, we were coming into very strong markets. Again, demand continues to grow for meal. And now we have another leg of that, that has a new demand. And mature markets like these, when they get new demand in a significant quantity like RGD, you get a significant change in margin. When you think about the structural changes that have happened over time, whether it's the different way with China feed porks now or Argentina with an exchange rate delta that makes the farmer really have no desire to sell and the farmer, to a certain degree, curtailing crush in Argentina.

我認為我們需要記住的是，在所有這些波動之前，無論是戰爭還是這樣或那樣，我們都進入了非常強勁的市場。同樣，對膳食的需求繼續增長。現在我們有了另一條腿，那就是有新的需求。像這樣的成熟市場，當他們獲得像 RGD 這樣的大量新需求時，您的利潤率就會發生顯著變化。當你想想隨著時間的推移發生的結構性變化，無論是中國現在餵豬肉的方式不同，還是阿根廷的匯率差，讓農民真的不想賣了，農民在一定程度上削減了在阿根廷迷戀。

And then we see China coming back from the lockdowns and soybean meal being better than corn into the Russian, we continue to see this strong. Now we have also canola helping onto this on the strength in biofuels, in biodiesel per se. So I think from our perspective, we were always looking at cash margins. And so we -- it didn't make a significant shift in our operating profit as we were saying in the last earnings calls, to be honest. So it has moved and at times some of these moves, to be honest, in commodities has been driven more by financial flows than fundamentals. I would say the fundamentals were strong before the war. They continue to be strong.

然後我們看到中國從封鎖中恢復過來，豆粕比玉米好到俄羅斯，我們繼續看到這種強勁勢頭。現在我們也有油菜籽幫助提高生物燃料的強度，生物柴油本身。所以我認為從我們的角度來看，我們一直在關注現金利潤率。所以我們 - 老實說，正如我們在上次財報電話會議中所說的那樣，它並沒有顯著改變我們的營業利潤。所以它已經發生了變化，老實說，大宗商品中的一些變化有時更多地是由資金流動而不是基本面驅動的。我會說戰前的基本面是強大的。他們繼續強大。

Some prices have spiked because of the war, then they came back, but they came back to the high levels that we had before the war because it was just supply-demand fundamentals. And as much as people talk about rising interest rates and all that, rising interest rates do not produce grain. So we have not seen any change in our supply-demand fundamentals that were in place before the war, before the tightening by the Fed. So to a certain degree, we need to keep our eyes on the fundamentals. That's what matters.

一些價格因為戰爭而飆升，然後又回來了，但它們又回到了戰前的高位，因為這只是供需基本面。儘管人們談論利率上升等等，但利率上升並不會產生糧食。因此，在戰前和美聯儲收緊政策之前，我們的供需基本面沒有任何變化。所以在一定程度上，我們需要關注基本面。這才是最重要的。

That's very helpful color. Maybe I'll just follow up on the soybean oil side. There's a lot of renewable diesel capacity scheduled to come online later this year. What are you seeing in terms of that demand environment? Are you starting to see inventories build to essentially new customers? Because the soybean curve at least is downward sloping and it does seem like there's a lot more demand to step up that could at least theoretically change that.

這是非常有用的顏色。也許我會在豆油方面跟進。計劃在今年晚些時候上線大量可再生柴油產能。您對這種需求環境有何看法？您是否開始看到為新客戶增加庫存？因為大豆曲線至少是向下傾斜的，而且看起來確實有更多的需求增加，至少在理論上可以改變這一點。

Yes. Listen, I think we're building new industries. So there are so many players here and so many things in motion. It's a very dynamic environment that we continue to watch. I think with -- we see the demand coming as expected. I think you may have, like in every capital project these days, some projects that may be a little bit delayed. But we don't see any significant change to our medium-term forecast.

是的。聽著，我認為我們正在建立新的產業。所以這裡有很多球員，有很多事情在進行。這是一個非常動態的環境，我們將繼續觀察。我認為 - 我們看到需求按預期進行。我想你可能有，就像現在的每個資本項目一樣，有些項目可能會有點延遲。但我們認為我們的中期預測沒有任何重大變化。

So we see the strength. We see the recovery on even potentially edible oils based on China coming back into the markets and coming back from lockdowns. So none of our forecast has changed in the oil side. And if you look at the contribution of meal and oil to crush from the last quarter to this quarter, it has maintained. So it looks like both legs continue to have the same strength at this point than we expected.

所以我們看到了實力。我們看到，即使是基於中國的潛在食用油也將出現復甦，因為它們正在重新進入市場並從封鎖中恢復過來。因此，我們對石油方面的預測都沒有改變。如果你看一下從上一季度到本季度的粗粉和油對壓榨的貢獻，它一直保持不變。所以看起來兩條腿在這一點上仍然具有與我們預期相同的力量。

Our next question comes from Eric Larson of Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Eric Larson。

Congratulations on a great quarter. So this may sound kind of like a little bit of a corny question, Juan, and is very 30,000-foot kind of speaking level. In the past, there's no promise that aren't long enough. When you have global recession, it does change the fundamentals for grain demand. And I get the question all the time. My sense is so that there are enough structural changes, particularly in the U.S. market, where even if we did have a global recession is that the fundamentals have a reasonable chance of remaining fairly strong. Is that an off-base thought? Or how would you look at that?

祝賀一個偉大的季度。所以這聽起來有點像一個老生常談的問題，Juan，而且是非常 30,000 英尺的口語水平。在過去，沒有一個承諾是不夠長的。當全球經濟衰退時，它確實會改變穀物需求的基本面。我一直都在問這個問題。我的感覺是，有足夠的結構性變化，特別是在美國市場，即使我們確實經歷了全球衰退，基本面也有合理的機會保持相當強勁。這是一個離譜的想法嗎？或者你會怎麼看？

Yes. As I was saying in the previous question, I think that, again, before rising rates that could drive into a slowdown of the economy or the war, we had a tight balance sheet. I mean, Eric, and you want to keep it at 30,000 feet. We're going to run this experiment of trying to feed 2 more billion people from here to 2050, something that we haven't done in the past.

是的。正如我在上一個問題中所說，我認為，在利率上升可能導致經濟放緩或戰爭之前，我們的資產負債表很緊。我的意思是，埃里克，你想把它保持在 30,000 英尺。我們將進行這個實驗，試圖從現在到 2050 年再養活 20 億人，這是我們過去沒有做過的事情。

And as I said, you could argue that if we're going to move population from 7 billion to like 9.5 billion by 2050, there's not the same proportion of arable land are going to be brought into production nor the same proportion of yield going to be. So I think in recessions, food is more protected than other things. So we don't expect a significant drop in demand, at least not for a sustainable period of time. While the reality is that production may or may not be there when you think about weather, when you think about the limitations of acreage or the limitations of potential yield.

正如我所說，你可以爭辯說，如果我們要到 2050 年將人口從 70 億增加到 95 億，那麼將不會有相同比例的耕地投入生產，也不會有相同比例的產量將用於生產。是。所以我認為在經濟衰退中，食物比其他東西更受保護。因此，我們預計需求不會大幅下降，至少不會在一段可持續的時間內出現。雖然現實情況是，當您考慮天氣時，當您考慮種植面積的限製或潛在產量的限制時，生產可能存在也可能不存在。

So our scenario is for tightness going forward. And we will do our best to make sure we continue to supply the billions of people around the world with their needs. But I think it's more prudent to plan on a tight supply-demand scenario. And at this point in time, when we run the supply-demand going a little bit more shorter term, we think that at least we need to have 2 very good years of good crops in North America and South America to bring a little bit more of relief to the current supply-demand inventories.

因此，我們的方案是未來的緊縮性。我們將盡最大努力確保我們繼續為全球數十億人提供他們的需求。但我認為在供需緊張的情況下進行計劃更為謹慎。在這個時間點，當我們將供需關係推向更短的時間時，我們認為至少我們需要在北美和南美有 2 年非常好的收成才能帶來更多緩解當前的供需庫存。

Even if we have a good growth in North America, I don't think we're going to increase pipeline from -- for soybeans at this point in time. And South America has been with La Niña for like 3 years or something like that. So some of these events are starting to last a little bit longer. Thankfully, in North America, everything looks like we're still going to have another good year. So we welcome the end of the harvest to see a very good crop this year in North America.

即使我們在北美有良好的增長，我認為我們不會在這個時候增加大豆的管道。南美洲已經與拉尼娜現象發生了 3 年或類似的時間。因此，其中一些事件開始持續更長時間。值得慶幸的是，在北美，一切看起來我們仍將迎來又一個美好的一年。因此，我們歡迎收成結束，因為今年北美的收成非常好。

Yes. No, I would agree with that. So I'll ask one more quick question, and it's more technical in nature. So in the quarter, you put over $3 billion on top of your inventories. And I'm just curious when you look at where grain prices were on March 31 versus June 30, June 30, you were down across the board, corn, beans, meal, oil, wheat, all the prices were down. So does that mean that you've just taken on -- you've been able to buy more grain, taken on bigger positions so your volume inventory is larger? Does that explain that $3 billion-plus of inventory increase?

是的。不，我同意這一點。所以我會再問一個簡單的問題，它本質上更具技術性。因此，在本季度，您在庫存上投入了超過 30 億美元。我只是好奇，當您查看 3 月 31 日和 6 月 30 日的穀物價格時，6 月 30 日，您全面下跌，玉米、豆類、粗粉、油、小麥，所有價格都下跌。那麼這是否意味著你剛剛開始——你已經能夠購買更多的穀物，持有更大的頭寸，因此你的庫存量更大？這是否解釋了超過 30 億美元的庫存增加？

Well, I think the inventory, when you're talking about us, I think our working capital effectively from Q1 to Q2 has come down a bit, Eric. So I think it's a function of both volumes as well as prices. Yes, prices have come off. But I think it's a function of also what's happening around the globe. You've got to think about not just our Ag Services and Oilseeds business, you got to think about also the other parts of our business. So while in general, there is a correlation to prices, there's also not necessarily same flat volume across every quarter.

嗯，我認為庫存，當你談論我們時，我認為我們的營運資金從第一季度到第二季度有效地下降了一點，埃里克。所以我認為這是數量和價格的函數。是的，價格已經下降。但我認為這也與全球正在發生的事情有關。您不僅要考慮我們的農業服務和油籽業務，還必須考慮我們業務的其他部分。因此，雖然總的來說，價格與價格存在相關性，但每個季度的交易量也不一定相同。

Our next question comes from Steven Haynes of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Steven Haynes。

I just wanted to ask a question on China. It's come up a few times. Maybe could you just go into a little bit more detail around demand dynamics there? I think soybean imports are still kind of trending down year-over-year. So are we kind of at an inflection point there? And any additional color would be great.

我只是想問一個關於中國的問題。它出現了幾次。也許您能詳細介紹一下那裡的需求動態嗎？我認為大豆進口量仍呈同比下降趨勢。那麼我們是否正處於一個拐點呢？任何額外的顏色都會很棒。

Yes. We think -- we are in close contact with our China team, of course. And I think demand there has, of course, suffered an impact. You saw their quarterly growth rate for the whole country. But we get encouraging reports of how activity is coming back. I think that at the beginning, even if they relieved on some of the restrictions, people were still a little bit shy to come out. But I think that now we're seeing people coming back to the office, were 100% back into the office. That brings traffic and that brings external breakfast and external lunches and things like that. So we see that with a recovery, if you will, coming from our perspective.

是的。我們認為——當然，我們與我們的中國團隊保持著密切聯繫。我認為那裡的需求當然受到了影響。你看到了整個國家的季度增長率。但我們得到了有關活動如何恢復的令人鼓舞的報告。我想一開始，即使他們解除了一些限制，人們仍然有點害羞。但我認為現在我們看到人們回到辦公室，100% 回到辦公室。這帶來了交通，帶來了外部早餐和外部午餐以及類似的東西。因此，從我們的角度來看，如果您願意的話，我們會看到復蘇。

If you think about the 4 main meats for China, China has produced about 5% more of the combined 4 meats in the first half of the year. So you could see there that, of course, the mouths are still there to be fed. And certainly, food security continues to be a high priority of, of course, the very responsible Chinese government. So nothing significant to report other than the ease of the COVID situation that is happening in multiple cities.

如果你想想中國的 4 種主要肉類，今年上半年中國的 4 種肉類總產量增加了約 5%。所以你可以在那裡看到，當然，嘴仍然在那裡需要餵食。當然，食品安全仍然是非常負責任的中國政府的重中之重。因此，除了在多個城市發生的 COVID 情況的緩解之外，沒有什麼值得報告的。

Our next question comes from Robert Moskow of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的羅伯特莫斯科。

Juan, forgive me if you've addressed this already, but there's a lot of grain still trapped in Ukraine. And I want to know if you have a view on what's going to happen to it and how it will affect your business.

胡安，如果你已經解決了這個問題，請原諒我，但是烏克蘭仍然有很多穀物。我想知道你是否對它會發生什麼以及它將如何影響你的業務有看法。

Yes. So thank you for the question on Ukraine. So our priorities in the company, Rob, as we have said it before, continue to be twofold. First is to provide for the support and well-being of our employees now and into the future. But the second very close priority is what you described, is that how do we help the industry in Ukraine, the agricultural industry to come back on their feet. As you know, there are 20 million, 30 million tons trapped there. And we've been working to increase the land exports and I think even some of the river exports. And so we're very proud of what the whole industry has done to increase those.

是的。謝謝你關於烏克蘭的問題。因此，正如我們之前所說，我們在公司 Rob 中的優先事項仍然是雙重的。首先是為我們的員工現在和未來提供支持和福祉。但第二個非常重要的優先事項是你所描述的，即我們如何幫助烏克蘭的工業，農業產業重新站起來。如你所知，有2000萬，3000萬噸被困在那裡。我們一直在努力增加土地出口，我認為甚至是一些河流出口。因此，我們為整個行業為增加這些所做的努力感到非常自豪。

We're still short of that. And of course, that's why you see both countries signing this Black Sea Initiative, which is to allow Odessa and other ports there to come back to full capacity to be able to export. At this point in time, as you have read the news, you get encouraging news 1 day and maybe discouraging news the other day. I do believe that both countries are committed to help keep this corridor open. I think that at the beginning, you're going to see a little bit of a trickle down of exports, maybe smaller boats. I think it's going to take a little bit of building confidence that this works before you can put the bigger boats.

我們還差這點。當然，這就是為什麼你看到兩國都簽署了這項黑海倡議，這是為了讓敖德薩和那裡的其他港口恢復全部能力以能夠出口。在這個時間點，當您閱讀新聞時，您會在第一天收到令人鼓舞的消息，而在前一天可能會收到令人沮喪的消息。我確實相信兩國都致力於幫助保持這條走廊的開放。我認為一開始，你會看到出口量略有下降，也許是更小的船隻。我認為在你可以放置更大的船之前，這需要一點點建立信心，這是有效的。

There are issues in the country about getting fuel for that. There are issues in the country about getting the crews to man this boat. There are also issues about insurance and financial institutions guaranteeing some of these large transactions. So I think I'm optimistic. I think you're going to have a trickle-down. That will be good for all -- for us and for everybody that we allow that capacity not to be unutilized, if you will.

該國存在為此獲取燃料的問題。該國存在讓船員駕駛這艘船的問題。保險和金融機構也存在為其中一些大宗交易提供擔保的問題。所以我覺得我很樂觀。我想你會有涓涓細流。這對所有人都有好處——對我們和每個人來說，如果你願意，我們允許這種能力不被利用。

At this point in time, the world needs access to those inventories. So this is an important thing. If we don't have access to those inventories and they are not clear from the storage next year, we may have an availability issue for food because we will lose part of the crop. Ukrainians apparently have done a very good job of planting about 70% of all the capacity -- all the area, and they are harvesting right now the wheat. They're going to be harvesting in September and October, the corn and the sunseed. So we need that space to be able to store those in September and October.

在這個時間點，世界需要訪問這些庫存。所以這是一件很重要的事情。如果我們無法獲得這些庫存，並且明年的儲存量也不清楚，我們可能會遇到糧食供應問題，因為我們將失去部分作物。烏克蘭人顯然做得非常好，種植了大約 70% 的產能——所有地區，他們現在正在收割小麥。他們將在 9 月和 10 月收穫玉米和葵花籽。所以我們需要那個空間來存放九月和十月的東西。

So we are optimistic. We are helping as much as possible. There is a lot of people with good intention. So hopefully, we will see the sea exports to grow over the next 2 or 3 months.

所以我們很樂觀。我們正在盡可能地提供幫助。有很多好心的人。因此，希望在未來 2 或 3 個月內，我們將看到海上出口增長。

Our final question for today comes from Michael Piken of Cleveland Research.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自 Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken。

A couple of parts on Nutrition. The first part being within Human Nutrition, how much of your revenue growth was with new customers versus expansion of current customers? And then on the Animal Nutrition side, how much of the growth was due to the favorability of the lysine market versus just internal operational improvements? And how sustainable is that?

關於營養的幾個部分。第一部分是在人類營養方面，您的收入增長中有多少來自新客戶與現有客戶的擴張？然後在動物營養方面，有多少增長是由於賴氨酸市場的有利而不是內部運營改進？這有多可持續？

On the Human Nutrition side, it was a balanced growth across new customers as well as existing customers. And we think about our revenue growth in terms of volume, pricing and mix, right? So I think we had balanced growth across the 3. We drove early action on pricing to ensure that we maintain margins and kept a strong focus on driving mix. Price elasticity for some of the products -- or most of the products, frankly, we participate in Human Nutrition has tended to be pretty low as Juan noted. So I think that's helped benefit protecting margins as well as driving revenue growth.

在人類營養方面，新客戶和現有客戶實現了平衡增長。我們從數量、定價和組合方面考慮我們的收入增長，對嗎？所以我認為我們在三個方面實現了平衡增長。我們推動了早期的定價行動，以確保我們保持利潤率，並重點關注推動組合。一些產品的價格彈性——坦率地說，我們參與人類營養的大多數產品的價格彈性往往很低，正如胡安指出的那樣。因此，我認為這有助於保護利潤率並推動收入增長。

On the Animal Nutrition side, as I highlighted in my prepared comments, most of that growth has come from amino acids, and amino acids has benefited from, a, the relative protein demand as well as supply chain challenges out of China. And the third aspect that's benefited us is our conscious effort to switch from liquid lysine to dry lysine. And that's -- sorry, so from dry lysine to liquid lysine, yes. And that's actually helped us drive improved profitability and improved margins as well as increase stickiness with our customers. So most of that volume growth in Animal Nutrition has been driven by amino acids.

在動物營養方面，正如我在準備好的評論中強調的那樣，大部分增長來自氨基酸，而氨基酸受益於 a，相對蛋白質需求以及中國以外的供應鏈挑戰。使我們受益的第三個方面是我們有意識地從液態賴氨酸轉換為乾賴氨酸。那是——對不起，從乾賴氨酸到液體賴氨酸，是的。這實際上幫助我們提高了盈利能力和利潤率，並增加了與客戶的粘性。因此，動物營養領域的大部分銷量增長都是由氨基酸驅動的。

We have no further questions for today, so I will hand back to Michael Cross for any further remarks.

我們今天沒有其他問題，所以我將交回邁克爾克羅斯的任何進一步評論。

Thank you for joining us today. Slide 12 notes upcoming investor events in which we will be participating. As always, please feel free to follow up with me if you have any other questions. Have a good day, and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

感謝您今天加入我們。幻燈片 12 指出了我們將參與的即將舉行的投資者活動。與往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時與我聯繫。祝您有美好的一天，感謝您對 ADM 的時間和興趣。

Thank you all for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。