Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the ADM Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加 ADM 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，此電話會議正在錄音中。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Megan Britt, Vice President, Investor Relations for ADM. Ms. Britt, you may begin.

我現在想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，ADM 投資者關係副總裁梅根·布里特。布里特女士，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Alex. Good morning, and welcome to ADM's third quarter earnings webcast. Starting tomorrow, a replay of today's webcast will be available at adm.com.

謝謝你，亞歷克斯。早上好，歡迎收聽 ADM 的第三季度收益網絡直播。從明天開始，今天的網絡廣播將在 adm.com 上重播。

Please turn to Slide 2, the company's safe harbor statement, which says that some of our comments and materials constitute forward-looking statements that reflects management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risks and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation. To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events.

請轉到幻燈片 2，該公司的安全港聲明，該聲明稱我們的一些評論和材料構成前瞻性聲明，反映了管理層對未來經濟環境、行業狀況、公司業績和財務業績的當前觀點和估計。這些陳述和材料基於許多具有風險和不確定性的假設和因素。 ADM 在其提交給 SEC 的報告中提供了額外信息，這些信息涉及可能導致實際結果與本演示文稿中的結果存在重大差異的假設和因素。在適用法律允許的範圍內，ADM 不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

On today's webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will provide an overview of the quarter and how we're continuing to advance our strategy. Our Chief Financial Officer, Vikram Luthar, will review the drivers of our performance as well as corporate results and financial highlights. Then Juan will make some final comments, and he and Vikram will take your questions. Please turn to Slide 3.

在今天的網絡廣播中，我們的董事長兼首席執行官胡安·盧西亞諾將概述本季度以及我們如何繼續推進我們的戰略。我們的首席財務官 Vikram Luthar 將審查我們業績的驅動因素以及公司業績和財務亮點。然後胡安會做一些最後的評論，他和維克拉姆會回答你的問題。請轉到幻燈片 3。

I'll now turn the call over to Juan.

我現在把電話轉給胡安。

Thank you, Megan. This morning, we reported a strong third quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.86. Adjusted segment operating profit was $1.6 billion. Our trailing fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA approached $6.6 billion, and our trailing 4-quarter average adjusted ROIC was 13%.

謝謝你，梅根。今天上午，我們報告了強勁的第三季度調整後每股收益 1.86 美元。調整後的部門營業利潤為 16 億美元。我們追踪的第四季度調整後 EBITDA 接近 66 億美元，我們追踪的第四季度平均調整後的投資回報率為 13%。

Throughout the quarter, our 40,000 colleagues around the globe continued to deliver on our purpose by supporting the global food system and providing needed nutrition to billions.

在整個季度中，我們在全球的 40,000 名同事繼續實現我們的目標，支持全球糧食系統並為數十億人提供所需的營養。

Global demand for our products remained robust, and our ability to meet customer needs demonstrated our team's expertise in managing dynamic market conditions as well as the unique benefits of our integrated global value chain and product portfolio. We continue to generate strong cash flows, which support the continued advancement of our strategy, including investments in new capabilities and growth engines across our 3 businesses and the return of capital to our shareholders.

全球對我們產品的需求保持強勁，我們滿足客戶需求的能力證明了我們團隊在管理動態市場條件方面的專業知識以及我們集成的全球價值鍊和產品組合的獨特優勢。我們繼續產生強勁的現金流，支持我們戰略的持續推進，包括對我們 3 項業務的新能力和增長引擎的投資以及向股東返還資本。

Next slide, please. Even as the team demonstrated superb day-to-day execution in the third quarter, we continued to make great progress on driving our strategic growth priorities. In each of our business segments, we've created and are continuing to build new growth engines that are aligned with enduring global trends.

請下一張幻燈片。儘管該團隊在第三季度表現出出色的日常執行力，但我們在推動我們的戰略增長重點方面繼續取得巨大進展。在我們的每一個業務領域，我們都創造並繼續構建與持久的全球趨勢保持一致的新增長引擎。

As demand for more sustainable produced low-carbon intensity products continues to drive growth across our portfolio, our AS&O team signed a groundbreaking long-term strategic agreement with PepsiCo to enroll up to 2 million regenerative agricultural acres over the next 7.5 years. I'll be talking more about our Regen Ag efforts in a moment.

由於對更可持續生產的低碳強度產品的需求繼續推動我們產品組合的增長，我們的 AS&O 團隊與百事可樂簽署了一項開創性的長期戰略協議，在未來 7.5 年內註冊多達 200 萬英畝的再生農業。稍後我將更多地談論我們的 Regen Ag 工作。

Sustainability from demand for sustainable packaging to the ongoing energy transformation supported by policies like the Inflation Reduction Act in the U.S. is also driving the evolution of our Carbohydrate Solutions business. In the third quarter, for example, we formally signed 2 joint ventures with LG Chem for U.S. production of lactic acid and polylactic acid for a variety of applications, including bioplastics.

從對可持續包裝的需求到美國《減少通貨膨脹法案》等政策支持的持續能源轉型，可持續性也在推動我們碳水化合物解決方案業務的發展。例如，在第三季度，我們與 LG Chem 正式簽署了兩家合資企業，在美國生產用於各種應用的乳酸和聚乳酸，包括生物塑料。

Both sustainability and food security are powering our growth in nutrition, including our continued investment in alternative proteins. In Q3, we advanced several alternative protein enhancements and expansions, including an agreement with Benson Hill for the exclusive rights to process socialize a portfolio of proprietary ingredients derived from their ultra-high protein soybeans.

可持續性和糧食安全都在推動我們在營養方面的增長，包括我們對替代蛋白質的持續投資。在第三季度，我們推進了幾項替代蛋白質的增強和擴展，包括與 Benson Hill 就其超高蛋白大豆衍生的專有成分組合加工社會化的獨家權利達成協議。

Each of these investments is aligned with global trends, and each demonstrates how we are advancing new avenues of growth across all 3 of our business segments.

這些投資中的每一項都與全球趨勢保持一致，並且每一項都展示了我們如何在所有三個業務部門中推進新的增長途徑。

Slide 5, please. Our strategic work remains focused on 2 pillars: productivity and innovation. As we discussed at our Global Investor Day last December, we are targeting $1.1 billion in benefits from our productivity efforts, which improve our long-term returns profile while helping us mitigate the impact of market forces, including inflation. Strong returns means focusing on both the numerator and the denominator. That is why, around the globe, our team is continuing to identify opportunities to monetize assets and optimize working capital as part of our $1 billion challenge. As of last week, we had realized cash generation in excess of $1 billion from this initiative.

請幻燈片 5。我們的戰略工作仍然專注於兩大支柱：生產力和創新。正如我們在去年 12 月的全球投資者日上所討論的那樣，我們的目標是從我們的生產力努力中獲得 11 億美元的收益，這將改善我們的長期回報狀況，同時幫助我們減輕包括通貨膨脹在內的市場力量的影響。強勁的回報意味著同時關注分子和分母。這就是為什麼在全球範圍內，我們的團隊將繼續尋找將資產貨幣化和優化營運資本的機會，作為我們 10 億美元挑戰的一部分。截至上週，我們已經從這項計劃中實現了超過 10 億美元的現金生成。

On the numerator side, we're investing in new technologies to enhance our efficiencies. Last quarter, I highlighted the operational transformation of our core facility in Marshall, Minnesota and discuss how we hope to emulate that success more widely across our production footprint. We are now advancing an ambitious plan to install enhanced automation, more sophisticated control systems and the increase use of analytics in more than 50 production facilities globally, with further expansion possible as we evaluate and size the opportunities. These investments will enable us to unlock capacity, improve reliability and enhance safety.

在分子方面，我們正在投資新技術以提高我們的效率。上個季度，我強調了我們在明尼蘇達州馬歇爾的核心工廠的運營轉型，並討論了我們希望如何在我們的生產足跡中更廣泛地效仿這一成功。我們現在正在推進一項雄心勃勃的計劃，以在全球 50 多個生產設施中安裝增強型自動化、更複雜的控制系統和增加對分析的使用，並在我們評估和評估機會時進一步擴展。這些投資將使我們能夠釋放容量、提高可靠性並增強安全性。

We are currently evaluating partners to support us in this important work, which we intend to execute in a phased approach, focusing on 8 to 10 facilities per year. We anticipate investing more than $1 billion over this period, and we expect double-digit returns on these investments as we are seeing in Marshall. We'll be updating you on our progress towards these goals and other productivity efforts on upcoming calls.

我們目前正在評估合作夥伴以支持我們開展這項重要工作，我們打算分階段執行，每年重點關注 8 到 10 個設施。我們預計在此期間投資超過 10 億美元，我們預計這些投資的兩位數回報，正如我們在 Marshall 看到的那樣。我們將在即將到來的電話會議上向您通報我們在實現這些目標和其他生產力方面的進展情況。

Next slide, please. Turning to innovation. Sustainability is a driving force both of our purpose and our growth strategy. And one great example is the scaling up of our regenerative agricultural efforts. Regen Ag practices include cover cropping, improved nutrient management and conservation tillage. The environmental and climate benefits associated with Regen Ag can include greenhouse gas emissions reductions, increased soil carbon sequestration, water quality improvements and biodiversity promotion. With global scale and a value chain that reaches from 220,000 farmers to customers ranging from multinational CPGs to start-ups, ADM has a unique opportunity to lead in this area.

請下一張幻燈片。轉向創新。可持續發展是我們的目標和增長戰略的驅動力。一個很好的例子是擴大我們的再生農業努力。 Regen Ag 的做法包括覆蓋種植、改進的養分管理和保護性耕作。與 Regen Ag 相關的環境和氣候效益包括減少溫室氣體排放、增加土壤固碳、改善水質和促進生物多樣性。憑藉全球規模和從 220,000 名農民到從跨國 CPG 到初創企業的客戶的價值鏈，ADM 在這一領域擁有獨特的領導機會。

I already mentioned our strategic partnership with PepsiCo, which we believe is truly groundbreaking in its scope and long-term vision. We're working with other partners as well. For example, in the spring, we announced an agreement with the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation that includes a commitment of $20 million to sign up more Regen Ag acres. And we're partnering with Farmers Business Network to make their gradable farm management platform available as the Regen Ag technology enabler for our North American farmer base. We've signed about 750,000 unique Regen Ag acres in the U.S. so far this year. We expect this number to grow with every passing year.

我已經提到了我們與百事可樂的戰略合作夥伴關係，我們認為這在其範圍和長期願景方面確實具有開創性。我們也在與其他合作夥伴合作。例如，在春季，我們宣布與國家魚類和野生動物基金會達成一項協議，其中包括承諾提供 2000 萬美元以簽署更多的 Regen Ag 英畝。我們正在與 Farmers Business Network 合作，使他們的可分級農場管理平台成為我們北美農民基地的 Regen Ag 技術推動者。今年到目前為止，我們已經在美國簽署了約 750,000 英畝獨特的 Regen Ag 土地。我們預計這個數字會逐年增長。

These programs are getting us closer to farmers and closer to our customers. And we anticipate that within the next 5 years, our annual operating profit impact from this work will reach more than $100 million while continuing to help lead our industry to a more responsible, sustainable future.

這些計劃讓我們更接近農民，更接近我們的客戶。我們預計，在未來 5 年內，這項工作對我們的年度營業利潤產生的影響將超過 1 億美元，同時繼續幫助引領我們的行業走向更負責任、更可持續的未來。

While we are on the subject of sustainability, I'm very proud that some of the good work we've done in this arena is being recognized. Just yesterday, ADM was included on the Investor's Business Daily annual list of 100 Best ESG companies. And in July, Environment+Energy Leader magazine recognized our Illinois-based indicator carbon capture and storage partnership as a top project for energy and environmental management.

當我們談到可持續發展的主題時，我很自豪我們在這個領域所做的一些出色工作得到了認可。就在昨天，ADM 被列入《投資者商業日報》年度 100 家最佳 ESG 公司名單。 7 月，Environment+Energy Leader 雜誌將我們位於伊利諾伊州的指標碳捕獲和儲存合作夥伴關係認定為能源和環境管理的頂級項目。

We posted a new update on our website that details our progress in advancing our Strive 35 goals, including our commitment to reduce our Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions 25% by 2035. And because Strive 35 isn't the end of our sustainability journey, that update includes our aspiration to work towards net zero emissions by 2050. We'll have more to say about this as we continue to evaluate and develop our path forward.

我們在網站上發布了新的更新，詳細介紹了我們在推進 Strive 35 目標方面取得的進展，包括我們承諾到 2035 年將我們的範圍 3 溫室氣體排放量減少 25%。而且由於 Strive 35 並不是我們可持續發展之旅的終點，因此更新包括我們到 2050 年實現淨零排放的願望。隨著我們繼續評估和發展我們的前進道路，我們將對此有更多話要說。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Vikram to talk about our business performance. Vikram?

現在我想把電話轉給 Vikram 來談談我們的業務表現。維克拉姆？

Thanks, Juan. Slide 7, please. The Ag Services and Oilseeds team delivered substantially higher year-over-year results. Ag Services results were significantly higher than the third quarter of 2021. The short crops in South America supported U.S. exports, driving improved volumes and margins in North American origination, which had significant negative impacts from Hurricane Ida in the prior year.

謝謝，胡安。請幻燈片 7。 Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 團隊的同比業績顯著提高。 Ag Services 的業績明顯高於 2021 年第三季度。南美的短產支持了美國的出口，推動了北美原產地的產量和利潤率的提高，這對上一年的颶風 Ida 產生了重大負面影響。

Better margins in global ocean freight driven by good execution amid dynamic global trade flows powered better results in global trade. South American origination saw improved volumes and margins, driven by increased farmer selling in addition to higher volumes through our export facilities.

在動態的全球貿易流動中，良好的執行推動了全球海運的更高利潤，推動了全球貿易的更好結果。除了通過我們的出口設施增加銷量外，南美原產地的銷量和利潤都有所提高，這得益於農民銷售的增加。

Crushing results were significantly higher, with margins driven by resilient global demand for both meal and oil. Strong rapeseed margins in EMEA, driven by robust oil demand and continued market dislocations along with positive impacts from an insurance settlement, helped drive improved results. North American soy crush margins continued to benefit from renewable diesel demand. Also, net positive timing effects in the quarter were about $175 million as compared to the approximately $70 million in the prior year quarter. Positive results were partially offset by lower crush volumes, including impacts from idle facilities in Ukraine and Paraguay.

壓榨結果顯著提高，利潤率受到全球對油粕粉和油品需求彈性的推動。在強勁的石油需求和持續的市場混亂以及保險結算的積極影響的推動下，歐洲、中東和非洲的油菜籽利潤強勁，幫助推動了業績的改善。北美大豆壓榨利潤繼續受益於可再生柴油需求。此外，本季度的淨正時間效應約為 1.75 億美元，而去年同期約為 7000 萬美元。積極的結果被較低的壓榨量部分抵消，包括烏克蘭和巴拉圭閒置設施的影響。

Refined products and other results were higher year-over-year in a strong margin environment for both refined oil and biodiesel. Robust performance in global refined oils was driven by healthy demand and elevated refined oil margins amid supply chain disruptions. Equity earnings from Wilmar were much higher versus the third quarter of 2021.

在精煉油和生物柴油利潤率強勁的環境下，精煉產品和其他業績同比增長。在供應鏈中斷的情況下，健康的需求和提高的成品油利潤率推動了全球成品油的強勁表現。與 2021 年第三季度相比，豐益國際的股票收益要高得多。

Looking ahead to Q4, we expect AS&O to deliver much better results in the fourth quarter of 2021. We expect continued strength in crush margins to more than offset the adverse impact of low water conditions on U.S. export volumes.

展望第四季度，我們預計 AS&O 將在 2021 年第四季度取得更好的業績。我們預計壓榨利潤率的持續走強將抵消低水條件對美國出口量的不利影響。

Slide 8, please. The Carbohydrate Solutions team delivered significantly higher results versus the prior year quarter. The Starches and Sweeteners subsegment, which includes ethanol production from our wet mills, delivered much improved year-over-year results amid steady global demand for sweeteners and starches. Corn coproducts, including continued robust demand for corn oil as well as effective risk management, drove higher execution margins in North America. Wheat milling had a strong performance, delivering improved volumes and margins to meet healthy demand for flour.

請幻燈片 8。與去年同期相比，碳水化合物解決方案團隊的業績顯著提高。在全球對甜味劑和澱粉的需求穩定的情況下，澱粉和甜味劑分部（包括我們濕磨機的乙醇生產）的業績同比大幅改善。玉米副產品，包括對玉米油的持續強勁需求以及有效的風險管理，推動了北美更高的執行利潤率。小麥製粉表現強勁，提高了產量和利潤，以滿足對麵粉的健康需求。

In EMEA, the business delivered solid volumes and margins and managed through a dynamic energy environment to drive stronger results. Our biosolutions platform continued its upward trajectory with 29% year-over-year revenue growth year-to-date. Vantage Corn Processors results were substantially lower. Ethanol margins were pressured by higher industry inventories, lower domestic demand and elevated corn costs. In addition, the prior year's results included contributions from the now sold Peoria facility.

在歐洲、中東和非洲，該業務實現了穩定的銷量和利潤率，並通過動態能源環境進行管理，以推動更強勁的業績。我們的生物解決方案平台繼續保持上升趨勢，年初至今收入同比增長 29%。 Vantage Corn Processors 的業績大幅下降。乙醇利潤率受到行業庫存增加、國內需求下降和玉米成本上升的壓力。此外，上一年的業績包括現已出售的皮奧里亞設施的貢獻。

Looking ahead, we expect the fourth quarter of this year for Carbohydrate Solutions to be significantly lower than the fourth quarter of last year. Demand and margins for sweeteners, starches and flour should remain healthy, but ethanol margins are expected to be substantially lower than last year's historic highs.

展望未來，我們預計碳水化合物解決方案今年第四季度將顯著低於去年第四季度。甜味劑、澱粉和麵粉的需求和利潤率應該保持健康，但乙醇利潤率預計將大大低於去年的歷史高位。

On Slide 9, the Nutrition business continued to outpace the industry with Q3 revenue growth of 10% on a reported basis and 16% on a constant currency basis. Third quarter adjusted operating profit was similar to last year and 7% higher on a constant currency basis. Profit was impacted in the quarter by the significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar and demand fulfillment challenges as the rapid growth in customer demand exceeded our operational capacity. We are prioritizing unlocking capacity in the face of some persistent supply chain bottlenecks.

在幻燈片 9 上，營養業務繼續超過行業，第三季度報告收入增長 10%，按固定匯率計算增長 16%。第三季度調整後的營業利潤與去年相似，按固定匯率計算增長了 7%。由於客戶需求的快速增長超出了我們的運營能力，本季度利潤受到美元大幅走強和需求滿足挑戰的影響。面對一些持續存在的供應鏈瓶頸，我們正在優先考慮釋放產能。

Our year-to-date performance remains very strong, including 20% revenue and 19% OP growth on a constant currency basis. And our portfolio of acquisitions from 2021 continues to deliver OP above our acquisition models.

我們年初至今的表現仍然非常強勁，包括按固定匯率計算 20% 的收入和 19% 的 OP 增長。從 2021 年開始，我們的收購組合繼續提供高於我們收購模式的 OP。

In this quarter, Human Nutrition results were higher than the third quarter of 2021. Strong demand for plant-based proteins as well as solid performance in texturants drove continued growth in specialty ingredients. Flavors results were impacted by adverse currency translation effects in EMEA, partially offset by continued strong demand growth in the region.

在本季度，人類營養結果高於 2021 年第三季度。對植物蛋白的強勁需求以及質構劑的穩健表現推動了特種成分的持續增長。風味結果受到歐洲、中東和非洲地區不利的貨幣換算效應的影響，部分被該地區持續強勁的需求增長所抵消。

Demand fulfillment challenges in North America and lower demand in APAC, driven partly by the lockdowns in China, also negatively impacted results. Health and Wellness was lower versus the prior year, which included higher income from this fiber fermentation agreement.

北美的需求滿足挑戰和亞太地區的需求下降（部分受中國封鎖的推動）也對業績產生了負面影響。 Health and Wellness 與上一年相比有所下降，其中包括來自該纖維發酵協議的更高收入。

Animal Nutrition results were down versus the prior year quarter. Pet results were lower in Latin America on lower volumes, partially offset by strong volumes and margins in North America. Softer animal protein demand affected feed volumes.

動物營養結果與去年同期相比有所下降。拉丁美洲的寵物產品業績因銷量下降而下降，部分被北美強勁的銷量和利潤率所抵消。動物蛋白需求疲軟影響了飼料量。

Looking ahead, we expect the fourth quarter for Nutrition this year to be higher than the fourth quarter of 2021, with continued strong demand in Human Nutrition more than offsetting adverse currency effects. We expect Nutrition's full year OP growth to be between 15% and 20% on a constant currency basis.

展望未來，我們預計今年第四季度的營養需求將高於 2021 年第四季度，人類營養需求持續強勁，足以抵消不利的貨幣影響。我們預計，按固定匯率計算，Nutrition 的全年 OP 增長率將在 15% 至 20% 之間。

Slide 10, please. Other business results increased from the prior year quarter. Higher short-term interest rates drove improved earnings in ADM Investor Services, partially offset by increased claims settlements in captive insurance. In the corporate lines, unallocated corporate costs of $251 million were higher year-over-year due primarily to performance-related compensation accruals, higher IT operating and project-related costs and higher costs in the company's centers of excellence.

請幻燈片 10。其他業務業績較上年同期有所增長。較高的短期利率推動了 ADM Investor Services 收益的改善，部分被專屬保險理賠額的增加所抵消。在公司業務方面，2.51 億美元的未分配公司成本同比增加，主要是由於與績效相關的應計薪酬、更高的 IT 運營和項目相關成本以及公司卓越中心的成本增加。

Other Corporate was favorable versus the prior year, primarily due to higher results from foreign currency-related hedge activity. Net interest expense for the quarter increased year-over-year on higher interest rates. The effective tax rate for the third quarter of 2022 was approximately 16%. We still project full year corporate costs to be about $1.3 billion, and we still expect our adjusted tax rate to remain in the range of 16% to 19%.

其他企業與上年相比表現良好，主要是由於與外匯相關的對沖活動的結果較高。由於利率上升，本季度的淨利息支出同比增加。 2022 年第三季度的有效稅率約為 16%。我們仍預計全年企業成本約為 13 億美元，我們仍預計調整後的稅率將保持在 16% 至 19% 的範圍內。

Next slide, please. Year-to-date, operating cash flows before working capital of $4.7 billion are up significantly versus $3.1 billion over the same period last year. Our net debt to total capital ratio is about 24%, and we have available liquidity of about $11.2 billion.

請下一張幻燈片。年初至今，營運資本前的營運現金流為 47 億美元，與去年同期的 31 億美元相比顯著增加。我們的淨債務與總資本的比率約為 24%，我們的可用流動資金約為 112 億美元。

We are continuing to invest in the business with $841 million in capital expenditures and have returned capital to shareholders with $677 million in dividends and $1.2 billion in share repurchases through the third quarter, which reflects the completion of the $1 billion stock buyback announced last quarter. And with an enhanced financial flexibility and in line with our balanced capital allocation framework, we plan to repurchase an additional $1 billion of shares by the end of 2023, subject to other strategic uses of capital.

我們將繼續以 8.41 億美元的資本支出投資該業務，並在第三季度以 6.77 億美元的股息和 12 億美元的股票回購向股東返還資本，這反映了上季度宣布的 10 億美元股票回購的完成。憑藉增強的財務靈活性並符合我們平衡的資本分配框架，我們計劃在 2023 年底之前再回購 10 億美元的股票，具體取決於資本的其他戰略用途。

Juan?

胡安？

Thank you, Vikram. Slide 12, please. So to recap, our team delivered another outstanding quarter. And thanks to our execution and the advancement of our strategy, we are well positioned to end 2022 strong. Last quarter, we said we were expecting full year earnings higher than $6.50 per share. Based on where we are today, we now clearly expect to exceed $7 per share.

謝謝你，維克拉姆。請幻燈片 12。回顧一下，我們的團隊又交付了一個出色的季度。由於我們的執行和戰略的推進，我們已做好準備在 2022 年結束時表現強勁。上個季度，我們表示預計全年收益將高於每股 6.50 美元。根據我們今天的情況，我們現在顯然預計每股將超過 7 美元。

Looking ahead, there are several externalities that we are monitoring going into 2023. We anticipate ongoing resilient demand for our products, a strong crush margin environment, a positive outlook for starches and sweeteners and a continuation of our growth trajectory in Nutrition.

展望未來，我們正在監測到 2023 年的幾個外部因素。我們預計對我們產品的持續彈性需求、強勁的壓榨利潤環境、澱粉和甜味劑的積極前景以及我們在營養領域的增長軌蹟的延續。

There is also significant uncertainty in the global economy and geopolitical environment. We expect to carry our strong momentum into the first quarter of 2023. And beyond that, we are confident that our scenario planning and execution will give us the ability to effectively manage through a dynamic environment.

全球經濟和地緣政治環境也存在很大的不確定性。我們預計將強勁勢頭延續到 2023 年第一季度。除此之外，我們相信我們的情景規劃和執行將使我們能夠在動態環境中進行有效管理。

We're also going to continue to benefit from our strategic work, and we'll continue to deliver on those priorities throughout 2023. We'll advance productivity initiatives to improve operations and processes, optimize costs and enhance efficiencies. We'll drive innovation, expanding and creating new growth engines across our entire business portfolio, Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions and Nutrition. And we'll advance those strategic objectives as we always have, alongside our team's exceptional day-to-day execution, delivering for our colleagues, consumers, customers and stakeholders.

我們還將繼續從我們的戰略工作中受益，我們將在 2023 年繼續實現這些優先事項。我們將推進生產力計劃，以改善運營和流程，優化成本並提高效率。我們將在我們的整個業務組合、農業服務和油籽、碳水化合物解決方案和營養方面推動創新、擴大和創造新的增長引擎。我們將一如既往地推進這些戰略目標，以及我們團隊卓越的日常執行力，為我們的同事、消費者、客戶和利益相關者提供服務。

With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

有了這個，接線員，請打開問題線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question for today comes from Ben Bienvenu from Stephens Inc.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 Ben Bienvenu。

I want to ask about your process volumes in the quarter. You cited lower crush volume utilization in Ukraine as well as Paraguay. Could you talk a little bit about what you expect your go-forward process volumes to look like? And is the lion's share of the decline in oilseeds processed year-over-year, that 10% decline, is that from those 2 regions? Were there any other contributing factors?

我想問一下你們本季度的處理量。您提到烏克蘭和巴拉圭的壓榨量利用率較低。你能談談你期望你的前進過程量是什麼樣的嗎？油籽加工量同比下降 10% 的最大份額是否來自這兩個地區？還有其他促成因素嗎？

Yes. Thank you, Ben. Yes, as you noted, we had lower volumes. And part of that were coming from Europe in soy and rape. We had some adverse weather and some logistical constraints in Europe in terms of navigation, some of the rivers. We also have a reduction in South America, in soy crush because of Paraguay shutdown, mostly because of lack of beans. We had also some reductions in North America due to canola seed availability. And certainly, we have our Ukraine sun crush facility down, as you know, since last March.

是的。謝謝你，本。是的，正如您所說，我們的銷量較低。其中一部分來自歐洲的大豆和油菜。在航行和一些河流方面，我們在歐洲遇到了一些不利的天氣和一些後勤限制。由於巴拉圭停產，南美的大豆壓榨量也有所減少，主要是因為豆類短缺。由於油菜籽的供應，我們在北美也有一些減少。當然，如您所知，自去年 3 月以來，我們的烏克蘭陽光粉碎設施已經關閉。

So we have 850 facilities around the world, as you know. And we deal with logistics, with adverse weather with manpower issues like every company out there. So that's what the decline in volumes at this point in time. As some of those one-off issues subside, I mean, we will see those volumes coming back to normal rates.

如您所知，我們在全球擁有 850 個設施。我們處理物流、惡劣天氣和人力問題，就像那裡的每家公司一樣。這就是此時交易量的下降。我的意思是，隨著其中一些一次性問題的消退，我們將看到這些交易量恢復到正常水平。

Our next question comes from Ben Theurer of Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

Juan, Vikram, congrats on the results. I wanted to follow up on Nutrition. As you've talked about some of the logistic bottlenecks that you plan to overcome, could you elaborate a little more in detail what those issues are and what you may have to do in terms of investments to get this right?

Juan, Vikram 對結果表示祝賀。我想跟進營養。當您談到您計劃克服的一些物流瓶頸時，您能否更詳細地說明這些問題是什麼，以及您在投資方面可能需要做些什麼才能做到這一點？

And then also aligned with that, what is actually your kind of FX assumption because you stretched the constant currency terms commentary on the outlook for the fourth quarter? So just to understand a little bit the regional breakdown as well and what FX headwinds we should expect into the short-term period, just given the euro weakness.

然後也與此一致，您的外匯假設實際上是什麼，因為您延長了對第四季度前景的不變貨幣條款評論？因此，只要了解一下區域細分，以及考慮到歐元疲軟，我們在短期內應該預期哪些外匯逆風。

Yes. Thank you, Ben. Listen, as Vikram mentioned in his commentary, we are exceptionally proud of how the team is generating demand, how our value proposition in Nutrition continues to resonate and attract customers. Our pipeline has never been bigger, and our growth rates continued to be our winning rates, continued to be off the charts. So the problem with that is that it catches up with your production pretty quickly. And although we have plans to expand those, some of the supply chain issues in delivery equipment and all that, sometimes don't play exactly in our favor.

是的。謝謝你，本。聽著，正如維克拉姆在他的評論中提到的，我們為團隊如何產生需求、我們在營養方面的價值主張如何繼續引起共鳴和吸引客戶而感到非常自豪。我們的管道從未如此龐大，我們的增長率繼續成為我們的獲勝率，繼續超出預期。所以問題在於它很快就趕上了你的生產。儘管我們計劃擴大這些，但交付設備中的一些供應鏈問題以及所有這些問題有時並不完全對我們有利。

When you look at where specifically those issues have impacted us the most, it has been in flavors. I would say mostly in North America, but some of that in Europe. On the other hand, the facility that we inaugurated last year, Pinghu in China, has suffered from lack of volumes because of the lockdowns due to COVID restrictions in China.

當您查看這些問題對我們影響最大的具體位置時，它一直在變化。我會說主要在北美，但其中一些在歐洲。另一方面，我們去年在中國平湖落成的工廠，由於中國的 COVID 限製而導致停工，因此產量不足。

So I would say we had a little bit upset in the sense that we couldn't bring all that demand that we have generated into the P&L. And certainly, those things are, to a certain degree, in our under control. And as you can imagine, everybody in the company is driving very hard to bring extra capacity.

所以我想說我們有點不安，因為我們無法將我們產生的所有需求都納入損益表。當然，這些事情在一定程度上是在我們的控制之下。正如你可以想像的那樣，公司裡的每個人都在努力提高產能。

As you know, on the last quarter or a couple of quarters ago, we bought FISA, precisely to alleviate a little bit that. Of course, we're using contract manufacturing. So we are pulling everything. But in a very tight environment with also some shifting of demand based on consumer demand, customers are shifting some of that demand, our ability to react promptly to that given the high growth rates caught up with us in the quarter.

如您所知，在上個季度或幾個季度前，我們購買了 FISA，正是為了緩解這一點。當然，我們使用的是合同製造。所以我們正在拉動一切。但是在一個非常緊張的環境中，需求也根據消費者的需求發生了一些變化，客戶正在轉移部分需求，鑑於本季度的高增長率，我們有能力迅速對此做出反應。

There is a lot of capacity coming for next year. So first of all, all this is an upside for next year. Hopefully, we're going to be able to fulfill all that demand next year. But there is also expansions. If you think about -- we have a new line in Sojaprotein. We also have the Biopolis expansion in Valencia. We have PetDine expansion coming up. So the business is -- has a long list of organic growth capacity that will come to help next year. But again, it's all the problem of maybe a strong successful sales and marketing organization, driving double-digit growth rates.

明年有很多容量。所以首先，所有這些都是明年的一個好處。希望明年我們能夠滿足所有這些需求。但也有擴展。如果您考慮一下——我們在 Sojaprotein 中有一條新產品線。我們還在瓦倫西亞進行了 Biopolis 擴建。我們即將進行 PetDine 擴展。因此，該業務是 - 有一長串有機增長能力將在明年提供幫助。但同樣，這可能是一個強大的成功銷售和營銷組織的所有問題，推動了兩位數的增長率。

Yes. And Ben, on the FX side, the -- just a reminder for everyone, right, in 2020, we grew operating profit 37%. In 2021, Nutrition profit was 20%. If you look at the FX over that 2-year period, it was almost flat, went up 1 year, went down the other year. But the European part of our business, EMEA, and we referenced this in our Global Investor Day, the revenue contribution from Europe is about 40% of the Human Nutrition side and about 20% on the Animal Nutrition side, and that's getting bigger because of the event.

是的。 Ben，在外匯方面，只是提醒大家，對，在 2020 年，我們的營業利潤增長了 37%。 2021年，營養利潤為20%。如果你看一下 2 年期間的外匯，它幾乎持平，1 年上漲，另一年下跌。但是我們業務的歐洲部分，EMEA，我們在全球投資者日中提到了這一點，歐洲的收入貢獻約為人類營養方面的 40%，動物營養方面的約 20%，而且這一比例越來越大，因為事件。

So consequently, given the profitability there and the significant move in the dollar this year, we thought it's appropriate to highlight the growth on a like-for-like basis, which basically means on a constant currency basis. So it's a significant strengthening of the dollar that basically called this out in the underlying growth in the European region.

因此，鑑於那裡的盈利能力和今年美元的顯著走勢，我們認為在類似的基礎上強調增長是合適的，這基本上意味著在不變的貨幣基礎上。因此，美元的大幅走強基本上說明了歐洲地區的潛在增長。

Our next question comes from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的亞當薩繆爾森。

Alex, maybe we skip to the next question. Maybe, Adam, come back later.

亞歷克斯，也許我們跳到下一個問題。也許，亞當，晚點回來。

We will move on. Our next question comes from Tom Palmer of JPMorgan.

我們將繼續前進。我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tom Palmer。

I wanted to ask on the barge delays on the Mississippi River. Does this have much effect on your business as we look towards the fourth quarter. Is it -- if there is impact, should we mainly think about it being in Ag Services? Or just given the diversity of your business, are there offsets to consider?

我想問一下密西西比河上的駁船延誤。當我們展望第四季度時，這對您的業務有很大影響嗎？是不是——如果有影響，我們應該主要考慮它是在 Ag Services 中嗎？或者只是考慮到您業務的多樣性，是否需要考慮抵消？

Yes. Yes, of course, we have an unprecedented situation and -- especially in the Lower Mississippi River that will reduce the volume of exports for Ag Services North America. As it's going to be a negative impact in Ag Services North America, of course, that -- part of that is because of soy and we're going to lose that volume. In the corn side, we're probably going to extend the window of exports from North America into the first quarter. So part of the offset is you're going to see that in the first quarter.

是的。是的，當然，我們遇到了前所未有的情況，尤其是在密西西比河下游，這將減少北美農業服務的出口量。由於這將對北美農業服務產生負面影響，當然，部分原因是大豆，我們將失去這一數量。在玉米方面，我們可能會將北美的出口窗口延長至第一季度。所以部分抵消是你將在第一季度看到的。

I think also part of the offset is South America will be able to export more. We are a large exporter in South America, of course, and you're going to see that. And then normally, what we noticed or we expect to happen, because we've seen it before, is when you export less from North America, where destination marketing sometimes get a little bit of a pop in margins, the products and destination become naturally more valuable, if you will, that was part of the original strategy of going into destination marketing.

我認為還有一部分抵消是南美將能夠出口更多。當然，我們是南美的大型出口商，你會看到這一點。然後通常情況下，我們注意到或期望發生的事情，因為我們之前已經看到過，當您從北美出口減少時，目的地營銷有時會獲得一點點利潤，產品和目的地變得自然更有價值的是，如果你願意的話，那是進入目的地營銷的原始策略的一部分。

And then the other impact is that as beans are not exported that matters not that much demand, local values come down, local bases come down, and that may be a boost for crush that you may be able to crush lower-priced beans or maybe eventually lower-priced corn for Carbohydrates Solutions. So we see some puts and takes. So probably negative for North America Ag Services and also it may be neutral for Ag Services and positive overall maybe for the whole.

然後另一個影響是，由於豆類沒有出口，這對需求並不重要，當地價值下降，當地基礎下降，這可能會促進壓榨，您可能能夠壓碎價格較低的豆類，或者也許碳水化合物解決方案的最終價格較低的玉米。所以我們看到了一些看跌期權。因此，可能對北美 Ag Services 不利，對 Ag Services 也可能是中性的，總體而言可能是積極的。

Our next question comes from Ken Zaslow from Bank of Montreal.

我們的下一個問題來自蒙特利爾銀行的 Ken Zaslow。

Just a couple of questions. One is, can you give a little bit more color on Ag Services and Oilseeds outlook as well as carb guidance? I know you said significantly up and significantly lower, some parameters to that.

只是幾個問題。一個是，您能否對 Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 的前景以及碳水化合物指南進行更多說明？我知道你說顯著上升和顯著下降，一些參數。

And then can you also talk about your Nutrition outlook? If your supply chain gets repaired, demand is there, do you think that your long-term growth algorithm is intact? And I'll leave it there, and I appreciate your time, as always.

然後你能談談你的營養前景嗎？如果您的供應鏈得到修復，需求就在那裡，您認為您的長期增長算法是否完好無損？我會把它留在那裡，我很感激你的時間，一如既往。

Thank you, Ken. Yes, let me address maybe the outlook of Ag Services and Oilseeds Q4. So first of all, very dynamic environment, but very positive environment. The teams continue to manage exceptionally well. And demand continues to be very robust.

謝謝你，肯。是的，讓我談談 Ag Services 和 Oilseeds Q4 的前景。首先，非常動態的環境，但非常積極的環境。球隊繼續管理得非常好。需求仍然非常強勁。

So as we go forward, Q4, again, in Ag Services, I was mentioning, maybe a little bit lower for North American exports, but that will be offset for other things that I explained in the question before. So we still expect significantly better results in the Q4.

因此，當我們繼續前進時，第四季度，我再次提到，在 Ag Services 中，北美出口可能會略低一些，但這將被我之前在問題中解釋的其他事情所抵消。因此，我們仍然預計第四季度會有明顯更好的結果。

Borrowing any big mark-to-market, that's our expectation at this point in time. Crush margins continue to strengthen. That's on the strength of feeding animals around the world, but also on the extra demand for oil from all the renewable green diesel or biodiesel around the world.

借用任何大的按市值計價，這是我們目前的預期。壓榨利潤繼續加強。這取決於世界各地飼養動物的力量，也取決於世界各地所有可再生綠色柴油或生物柴油對石油的額外需求。

We expect continued strength in global trade and destination market. And as I explained before, I would say the business at this point in time is hitting in all cylinders. So I would say the 3 parts of the business will be very robust into bigger than last year, certainly. Maybe Vikram can give a little bit of an update on the other two.

我們預計全球貿易和目的地市場將繼續走強。正如我之前解釋的那樣，我會說此時的業務正在全力以赴。因此，我會說業務的 3 個部分肯定會比去年變得更大。也許維克拉姆可以對其他兩個提供一點更新。

Yes. So on Carbohydrate Solutions, you're right, we did say significantly lower. But if you look at the 2 independent parts, S&S, Sweeteners and Starches, we continue to expect that to be strong. We're seeing robust volumes and margins with obviously the corn oil benefits we are seeing. So net corn costs are attractive as well as margins continue to be attractive.

是的。所以在碳水化合物解決方案上，你是對的，我們確實說要低得多。但如果你看看 2 個獨立的部分，S&S、甜味劑和澱粉，我們仍然預計它會很強勁。我們看到了強勁的銷量和利潤率，顯然我們看到了玉米油的好處。因此，玉米淨成本具有吸引力，而利潤率繼續具有吸引力。

The issue is on ethanol. Lastly, if you remember, we actually had $1-plus ethanol margins. This year, we clearly do not anticipate margins to be that high. We still expect to be healthy given continued strong gasoline demand, the discount that ethanol has versus RBOB as well as the reasonable inventory levels. So it's really the ethanol side that is going to drive the significantly lower performance in Carbohydrate Solutions Q4 to Q4.

問題在於乙醇。最後，如果你還記得的話，我們實際上有 1 美元以上的乙醇利潤。今年，我們顯然預計利潤率不會那麼高。鑑於持續強勁的汽油需求、乙醇相對於 RBOB 的折扣以及合理的庫存水平，我們仍然預計會保持健康。因此，實際上乙醇方面將推動碳水化合物解決方案 Q4 至 Q4 的性能顯著下降。

On the Nutrition side, yes, as Juan said, we are working and prioritizing unlocking capacity. We anticipate much of that to get unlocked over the course of 2023. And on a constant currency basis, we continue to expect growth going forward to be in that 15-plus percent range. It's important to highlight constant currency because that part of the business in Europe, as I mentioned, is becoming bigger and bigger. And that's clearly -- and currency is not something we can control, and important, therefore, for us to call that out.

在營養方面，是的，正如胡安所說，我們正在努力並優先考慮解鎖能力。我們預計其中大部分將在 2023 年期間解鎖。在不變的貨幣基礎上，我們繼續預計未來的增長將在 15% 以上的範圍內。強調不變貨幣很重要，因為正如我所提到的，歐洲的那部分業務正在變得越來越大。這很明顯 - 貨幣不是我們可以控制的東西，因此對我們來說很重要。

Our next question comes from Steven Haynes of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Steven Haynes。

I just wanted to ask on the Brazil-China corn export agreement and see if you could get a little bit of color on any impact you think you'll see in your businesses. And if you can just kind of remind us of how big your export origination footprint is in Brazil versus North America.

我只是想問一下巴西-中國玉米出口協議，看看你是否可以對你認為會對你的業務產生的任何影響有所了解。如果您能提醒我們您的出口原產地在巴西與北美相比有多大。

Yes. So first thing you need to understand is we are living in a very tight global corn environment. So if you put yourself in the foot of China, China finds itself with lower production -- lower domestic production of corn with certainly higher feed demand, lower barley and sorghum imports. So naturally, it will have to import more corn. So in my mind, they're just building origin optionality.

是的。因此，您首先需要了解的是，我們生活在一個非常緊張的全球玉米環境中。所以如果你把自己放在中國腳下，中國會發現自己的產量較低——國內玉米產量較低，飼料需求肯定較高，大麥和高粱進口量較低。所以很自然地，它將不得不進口更多的玉米。所以在我看來，他們只是在構建原產地可選性。

Again, you have still the La Niña effect in Argentina. So they are planting less corn there. Certainly, our last check up here, yields for corn in North America were going to be lower. And of course, there's always the uncertainty of Ukraine ability to export. So I think that from a Chinese perspective, this is nothing more than just risk management and expanding open up another optionality.

同樣，阿根廷仍然存在拉尼娜效應。所以他們在那裡種植較少的玉米。當然，我們最後一次在這裡檢查，北美的玉米產量會更低。當然，烏克蘭的出口能力始終存在不確定性。所以我認為，從中國的角度來看，這無非是風險管理和擴大開放的另一種選擇。

Of course, we are a large exporter from South America as well. We have a very robust Ag Services business in Brazil. And I remind you, we are the largest exporter of corn from Argentina. So as always, we will offer Black Sea, we will offer North America, we will offer Brazil and we will offer Argentine origins to China. So as long as demand remains tight, we will see a lot of activity within the trade flows because, naturally, people want optionality.

當然，我們也是南美的大型出口商。我們在巴西擁有非常強大的農業服務業務。我提醒你，我們是阿根廷最大的玉米出口國。因此，我們將一如既往地向中國提供黑海、北美、巴西和阿根廷原產地。因此，只要需求仍然緊張，我們就會在貿易流中看到很多活動，因為自然而然地，人們想要選擇權。

Our next question comes from Rob Dickerson of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Rob Dickerson。

I guess just first question, kind of a broad question. There are a number of times you said in the commentary upfront that should be ongoing momentum kind of going into 2023, and it sounds like more specifically kind of in this Q1. If we think about just kind of the general macro backdrop, right, all the tailwinds that are benefiting the business, and maybe this is a little dumb down for some but not for me, maybe you could just kind of touch on what could be some drivers that could loosen the overall tightness in the supply chain as we get through next year. Then I have a follow-up.

我想只是第一個問題，一個廣泛的問題。您在前面的評論中多次說過，應該會持續到 2023 年，這聽起來更像是在第一季度。如果我們只考慮一般宏觀背景，對，所有有利於業務的順風，也許這對某些人來說有點愚蠢，但對我來說不是，也許你可以稍微談談可能是什麼當我們度過明年時，可能會緩解供應鏈整體緊張的驅動因素。然後我有一個跟進。

Okay. So let me talk a little bit. As I said, we are finishing a very strong 2022, and that will get us into a strong -- with good momentum into 2023.

好的。所以讓我稍微談談。正如我所說，我們正在完成一個非常強勁的 2022 年，這將使我們進入一個強勁的 - 2023 年的良好勢頭。

What are the things that we are seeing? Because of course, I mean, it's difficult place to prognosticate these days. But we anticipate ongoing resilient demand for our products. We have not seen -- maybe with the exceptions of some tiny businesses in Animal Nutrition, we have not seen a deceleration of demand across ADM at this point in time.

我們看到了什麼？因為當然，我的意思是，現在很難預測。但我們預計對我們產品的持續彈性需求。我們還沒有看到——也許除了動物營養領域的一些小企業之外，我們目前還沒有看到整個 ADM 的需求減速。

We foresee also a strong crush margin environment based on the 2 legs. We have a strong pork and poultry feeding demand across the world. And we see tight soybean oil stocks and RGD and biodiesel demand that continues to be strong and growing.

我們還預見到基於兩條腿的強勁壓榨利潤環境。我們在全球範圍內對豬肉和家禽飼料有強勁的需求。我們看到豆油庫存緊張，RGD 和生物柴油需求繼續強勁且增長。

We see, as Vikram expressed before, a positive outlook for starches and sweeteners. We have finished some of our contracting, and we see the volume and we see the margins holding or slightly expanding there. And we see a continuation of our growth trajectory in Nutrition. When I talk about the pipeline, that's the business in which we have the biggest visibility into the future because these are projects that -- barring any supply issues, we will bring to the P&L. So I would say, that is what's -- give us some positive momentum or positive expectations for '23.

正如維克拉姆之前所說，我們看到了澱粉和甜味劑的積極前景。我們已經完成了一些合同，我們看到了交易量，我們看到利潤在那裡保持或略微擴大。我們看到了我們在營養方面的增長軌蹟的延續。當我談到管道時，這是我們對未來最有影響力的業務，因為這些項目——除非出現任何供應問題，否則我們將帶入損益表。所以我想說，這就是——給我們一些積極的動力或對 23 年的積極期望。

You have to remember also that we dealt with a lot of weather issues, logistical issues, whether there is the river, whether there is hurricanes with many issues. And we had, as I explained before, some manufacturing volumes impact here and there. We expect that all to be corrected and to be potentially a plus into next year.

您還必須記住，我們處理了很多天氣問題，後勤問題，是否有河流，是否有颶風等很多問題。正如我之前解釋的那樣，我們在這里和那裡都受到了一些製造量的影響。我們預計所有這些都會得到糾正，並可能在明年成為一個加分項。

And as I explained in the Nutrition question, we have new capacity coming on stream. We have -- we are expanding Biopolis probiotics capacity by a factor of 5. We are bringing a new line for plant-based proteins in Sojaprotein. We are expanding our PetDine capacity. So we are bringing a lot of new capacity to bear because we have the pipeline to actually transfer them into profits. So from what we can see here, and again in a very uncertain world, is we have good -- very good momentum going into 2023.

正如我在營養問題中解釋的那樣，我們有新的產能投入使用。我們有——我們正在將 Biopolis 益生菌產能擴大 5 倍。我們正在為 Sojaprotein 中的植物蛋白引入一條新產品線。我們正在擴大我們的 PetDine 容量。因此，我們帶來了很多新的產能，因為我們有管道將它們實際轉化為利潤。因此，從我們在這裡可以看到的，以及在一個非常不確定的世界中，我們是否有良好的 - 進入 2023 年的良好勢頭。

Our next question comes from Steve Byrne of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的史蒂夫伯恩。

Yes. Thank you. I'd like to better understand this regenerative ag outlook you have for $100 million of operating profit in 5 years. Would it be reasonable to assume that that's roughly 10 million acres -- or $10 an acre operating profit? Is that kind of where you're thinking?

是的。謝謝你。我想更好地了解您對 5 年內 1 億美元營業利潤的這種再生農業前景。假設這大約是 1000 萬英畝——或每英畝 10 美元的營業利潤是否合理？你想的地方是這樣的嗎？

And maybe more broadly, do you see the value here more on generating grain that has been produced in some kind of sustainable way, i.e., that a CPG customer of yours would be willing to pay a premium for that grain? Or do you see this as really the generation of carbon credits that could be sold on various exchanges? I welcome your thoughts on that.

也許更廣泛地說，您是否看到了以某種可持續方式生產穀物的價值，即您的 CPG 客戶願意為該穀物支付溢價？或者你認為這真的是可以在各種交易所出售的碳信用的產生嗎？我歡迎你對此的想法。

Yes. Thank you. Very good question and something that is very close to our heart and tied to our strategy. The Regen Ag programs and acres are certainly in high demand. We have made public -- one announcement, but we have been working on what we call the differentiated bushel, if you will, for like 3 or 4 years already. And ADM naturally sits in a unique place in the value chain, and we have the global scale to drive improvements in agriculture. And we have the ability to tie both the farmer with the CPG companies, and so this is a privileged position.

是的。謝謝你。非常好的問題，並且非常貼近我們的內心並與我們的戰略相關。 Regen Ag 項目和土地的需求量肯定很大。我們已經公開了——一個公告，但我們一直在研究我們所謂的差異化蒲式耳，如果你願意的話，已經有 3 或 4 年了。 ADM 在價值鏈中自然處於獨特的位置，我們擁有全球規模來推動農業的改進。我們有能力將農民與 CPG 公司聯繫起來，所以這是一個特權職位。

We are working very hard to simplify the process for the farmer. And as you described, there are many ways to potentially create value here. When we thought about the differentiated bushel, one is, as you described, eventually, and we're seeing more evidence of that, there's going to be a premium price for bushels that are grown or metric tons that are grown in a certain way. And I think that the whole society is looking for that. It's looking for agriculture to actually do their part in creating a more sustainable world. One is that.

我們正在努力為農民簡化流程。正如你所描述的，有很多方法可以在這裡潛在地創造價值。當我們考慮差異化蒲式耳時，正如您所描述的，最終，我們看到更多的證據表明，以某種方式種植的蒲式耳或公噸種植的價格將會溢價。我認為整個社會都在尋找這一點。它正在尋找農業在創造一個更可持續的世界中真正發揮作用。一個就是這樣。

The second, and that's where we're working with FBN with gradable and all that, is to simplify the collection of data and all that in the preparation. We're working with the government on that on the protocols to be able to have carbon offsets or carbon credits based on that. So it's a little bit of both.

第二個，這就是我們與 FBN 一起使用 gradable 和所有這一切的地方，是為了簡化數據的收集和所有準備工作。我們正在與政府合作制定協議，以便能夠在此基礎上進行碳補償或碳信用額。所以兩者兼而有之。

The economics that you described are not as simple as $10 per ton or whatever. But to a certain degree that they are also not that much more complicated than that, we just have a portfolio of different accounts and different contracts. And they're all slightly different, but it is conceptually aligned to what you described. It's converting more acres. It's signing more acres. That's where we leverage the relationship we have with farmers globally. ADM has 220,000 farmers portfolio in the world that we are engaged in discussing this. Of course, the customer -- the farmers will embrace these as they see more demand for this. That's why it's important to have the CPG companies aligned to this. And that's why we make these agreements because, of course, the farmer will generate the production in order to satisfy the demand. So both lines need to grow together.

您所描述的經濟學並不像每噸 10 美元或其他任何東西那麼簡單。但在某種程度上，它們也沒有比這複雜得多，我們只是擁有不同賬戶和不同合約的投資組合。它們都略有不同，但在概念上與您所描述的一致。它正在轉換更多的英畝。它正在簽署更多的土地。這就是我們利用我們與全球農民的關係的地方。 ADM 在全球擁有 220,000 名農民，我們正在討論這個問題。當然，客戶——農民會因為看到對此的更多需求而接受這些。這就是為什麼讓 CPG 公司與此保持一致很重要的原因。這就是我們簽訂這些協議的原因，因為當然，農民將生產產品以滿足需求。所以兩條線需要一起成長。

So again, I think we are just leveraging our incredible farmer network and the desire of CPG companies and consumer in general to see bushels or metric tons grown in a differentiated way. So we're very excited about the future of this.

再說一次，我認為我們只是利用我們令人難以置信的農民網絡以及 CPG 公司和一般消費者的願望，看到蒲式耳或公噸以差異化的方式種植。所以我們對它的未來感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from Eric Larson of Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Eric Larson。

Congratulations on a good quarter, everyone.

祝賀大家度過了一個美好的季度。

Thank you, Eric.

謝謝你，埃里克。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

So the question I have is -- and thank you for all your region comments, Juan, it's pretty dear to our heart, too. So I'm looking forward to even having more discussions on that.

所以我的問題是-- 感謝您對地區的所有評論，Juan，這對我們來說也很重要。所以我期待著對此進行更多討論。

The question I would have this morning is, could you give us a little more detail on the situation in Ukraine, what you folks are seeing? We're hearing that there are only plant -- only able to plant enough winter week this year to even meet kind of their own domestic needs for next year. It seems that maybe Ukraine is going to be an even smaller contributor to global exports, both on the oilseeds and grains next year. I guess it's just hard to get all the information put together. Could you just share some thoughts on what you see developing in that region of the world?

今天早上我要問的問題是，你能否給我們詳細介紹一下烏克蘭的情況，你們看到了什麼？我們聽說只有植物——今年冬季一周只能種植足夠的植物，甚至可以滿足明年他們自己的國內需求。看來，明年烏克蘭對全球油籽和穀物出口的貢獻可能會更小。我想很難把所有的信息放在一起。您能否就您所看到的世界該地區的發展情況分享一些想法？

Yes. Thank you, Eric. And also, it gives me an opportunity to emphasize the message we sent to our employees in Ukraine to -- for strength. And ADM is doing everything possible to make their lives as variable as possible through all these. And hopefully, one day, we will be talking about the rebuilding of Ukraine and all of them coming back to their land.

是的。謝謝你，埃里克。而且，它讓我有機會強調我們發送給烏克蘭員工的信息，以增強力量。 ADM 正在盡一切可能通過所有這些使他們的生活盡可能多變。希望有一天，我們會談論烏克蘭的重建以及他們所有人都回到自己的土地上。

So listen, we've been involved. As you know, we have more than 650 employees. So we've been deeply involved in that. A vast majority of them are in their jobs, in their positions right now. So we've been able to export from Ukraine, and the industry has worked together. With governments and through this corridor agreement, we've been able to, in September, to reach the same level of exports almost that Ukraine used to have last year. So about 7 million tons.

所以聽著，我們已經參與其中。如您所知，我們有 650 多名員工。所以我們已經深入參與其中。他們中的絕大多數現在都在他們的工作中，在他們的位置上。因此，我們已經能夠從烏克蘭出口，並且該行業已經合作。與各國政府合作並通過該走廊協議，我們能夠在 9 月份達到與烏克蘭去年幾乎相同的出口水平。所以大約700萬噸。

October, starting with a little bit more of wrinkles, if you will. We are having an issue, which is this joint group that is supposed to inspect the vessels have been a little bit overwhelmed by the number of vessels that we have. So they are adding more people to that group in order to continue to move material. We need to move material. There are like 100 vessels, give or take, in queue right now. We need to take that material out because storage in Ukraine is becoming full. And then there's going to be a harvest, and we need to be able to use that storage to harvest the material and to store the material there.

十月，如果你願意的話，從皺紋開始多一點。我們遇到了一個問題，這個應該檢查船隻的聯合小組對我們擁有的船隻數量有點不知所措。因此，他們正在向該組添加更多人，以繼續移動材料。我們需要移動材料。現在有大約 100 艘船隻，無論是給予還是接受，都在排隊。我們需要把這些材料拿出來，因為烏克蘭的倉庫已經滿了。然後會有收穫，我們需要能夠使用該存儲來收穫材料並將材料儲存在那裡。

So my point to all this is dynamic. This continues to be a very dynamic environment. Certainly, there are still selling in the area sometimes, keeping some of the soybean oil -- sun seed oil tanks, if you will. So this is not an easy area.

所以我對這一切的看法是動態的。這仍然是一個非常動態的環境。當然，有時該地區仍有出售，保留一些大豆油——太陽籽油罐，如果你願意的話。所以這不是一個容易的領域。

In the middle of that, of course, Ukraine is trying to plant, as you described, difficult to judge a number. I mean our estimate is that maybe 30% less, but it's difficult to make the calculation because some territory are now claimed to be in Russian control. So it's difficult for us to know even when data are put together, if you will, if that counts with the planting in that Russian controlled territory or not. So I would say, it's a little bit difficult to make prognostications.

當然，正如你所描述的，在這中間，烏克蘭正試圖種植一個難以判斷的數字。我的意思是，我們的估計可能會減少 30%，但很難進行計算，因為現在聲稱某些領土在俄羅斯控制之下。因此，即使將數據放在一起，我們也很難知道，如果你願意，這是否與在俄羅斯控制的領土上的種植有關。所以我想說，做出預測有點困難。

So wheat, thankfully, Australia has a good crop. It has rained a lot in Australia. So that's a positive of La Niña. Hopefully, we stop now with the rain because they need to harvest, and we don't want damage into the harvest. India also has declared there are some inventories and can come to the world to help.

所以小麥，謝天謝地，澳大利亞的收成很好。澳大利亞下了很多雨。所以這是拉尼娜現象的一個積極因素。希望我們現在停止下雨，因為他們需要收穫，我們不希望對收穫造成損害。印度還宣布有一些庫存，可以向世界提供幫助。

Corn situation, certainly more difficult maybe. There is a strong demand. We are in course grains in the tightest inventories in the world that we have in 7 years. So I think that will be complicated. As I said, Argentina has planted like 10% of the first corn because of incredible drought there. So I think that, at this point in time, the U.S. will be a big supplier of corn for the world.

玉米的情況，也許肯定更難。有強烈的需求。我們正處於 7 年來世界上最緊張的庫存中。所以我認為這會很複雜。正如我所說，由於那裡令人難以置信的干旱，阿根廷已經種植了大約 10% 的第一批玉米。所以我認為，在這個時間點，美國將成為世界玉米的主要供應國。

On sun oil, I think the world adjust a little bit more to present in different blends of different oils. But of course, the oil environment is tight because of all the renewable green diesel and biodiesel. So I would say, maybe wheat is a little bit better, but corn and sun oil will be difficult if we stop with the corridor. So hopefully now, November 19, the corridor gets extended. And everything we hear at this point in time, there may be an objection here or there, but nothing significant that could derail this. So we are still counting that the corridor will continue to function, hopefully, with a little bit more efficiency as we appoint more inspectors on with the joint committee.

關於防曬油，我認為世界會進行更多調整，以呈現不同油的不同混合物。但是，當然，由於所有可再生綠色柴油和生物柴油，石油環境都很緊張。所以我想說，也許小麥稍微好一點，但如果我們在走廊停下來，玉米和太陽油就很難了。因此，希望現在，即 11 月 19 日，這條走廊可以延長。我們在這個時間點聽到的一切，可能在這里或那裡都有反對意見，但沒有什麼重要的事情可以破壞這一點。因此，我們仍在指望走廊將繼續運作，希望隨著我們任命更多檢查員加入聯合委員會，效率會更高一些。

Our next question comes from Robert Moskow of Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的羅伯特莫斯科。

Vikram, I was hoping you'd give a little more color on the outsized performance in Ag Services in the quarter. I mean this is the strongest third quarter I think I've seen from ADM in many years, and it's not what I would have expected given the challenges on the Mississippi River. So of these factors that you mentioned, the short crop in South America, the better margins in ocean freight, can you give us kind of some sizing as to what were the biggest factors for the outperformance? And also, was there any kind of positioning benefit from your -- from how you hedged your grain in the quarter?

維克拉姆，我希望你能對本季度 Ag Services 的超常表現多加說明。我的意思是，這是我多年來從 ADM 看到的最強勁的第三季度，考慮到密西西比河的挑戰，這不是我所期望的。因此，在您提到的這些因素中，南美的短產，更好的海運利潤，您能否告訴我們一些影響表現優異的最大因素是什麼？此外，您是否從本季度對沖穀物中獲得了任何形式的定位收益？

Yes. So it was a great performance, as you described, very proud of the team. Traditionally, our Q3s have lower volumes because we are getting out of the end of the season and waiting for the next harvest. What happened this time is I think given the short South American crop, we've been able to move more volumes, especially exports in North America. Exports were down Q3 to Q2, but not down as much as maybe you see in other years. The same has been a little bit for origination volumes. And when exports go, we have benefits in our transportation businesses, our barges and all that.

是的。正如你所描述的，這是一場偉大的表演，為球隊感到非常自豪。傳統上，我們的第三季度產量較低，因為我們即將結束本季並等待下一次收穫。這次發生的事情是，我認為鑑於南美作物短缺，我們已經能夠轉移更多的數量，尤其是在北美的出口。出口在第三季度到第二季度下降，但沒有你在其他年份看到的那麼大。原始卷也是如此。當出口開始時，我們的運輸業務、駁船和所有其他方面都會受益。

Also, do not forget, it's not just North America, but it's also the global nature. The global trades have done a spectacular performance. And I think we have benefits in ocean freight. It was a very good quarter from that perspective.

另外，不要忘記，這不僅是北美，也是全球性的。全球貿易表現亮眼。我認為我們在海運方面有好處。從這個角度來看，這是一個非常好的季度。

And also destination market. In destination market, we started 4 or 5 years ago, I don't remember exactly. We had continued to grow volumes and expanding margins. So that, I would say, is what created this great services in Q3. So great performance by the team.

還有目的地市場。在目的地市場，我們是四五年前開始的，具體我記不太清了。我們繼續增長銷量並擴大利潤。所以，我想說，這就是在第三季度創造瞭如此出色的服務的原因。球隊的表現如此出色。

Our final question is from Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的亞當薩繆爾森。

Can you hear me now?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, yes. Good to...

是的是的。好到...

Sorry about the technical issues earlier. So a lot of ground has been covered today. I wanted to maybe come to capital allocation on the balance sheet. And first, just to clarify on repurchase because you did a very sizable amount of buybacks in the third quarter. The incremental $1 billion was over the next 5 quarters. Did I understand that right from the earlier comments?

很抱歉之前的技術問題。所以今天已經覆蓋了很多領域。我想也許會在資產負債表上進行資本配置。首先，只是為了澄清回購，因為你在第三季度進行了大量的回購。增加的 10 億美元用於接下來的 5 個季度。我是否從之前的評論中理解了這一點？

And then just more broadly, Juan, Vikram, any way to frame CapEx over the next -- into 2023 kind of you've got a lot of capacity actions underway. Just help frame kind of the internal investments.

然後更廣泛地說，胡安，維克拉姆，任何方式來構建下一個資本支出 - 到 2023 年，你已經有很多產能行動正在進行中。只是幫助制定內部投資的框架。

And relatedly, help us think about maybe the M&A optionality in the current marketplace, especially with rising interest rates that might put some more working capital strain on smaller players in the market.

與此相關的是，幫助我們考慮一下當前市場中的併購選擇性，尤其是利率上升可能會給市場上較小的參與者帶來更大的營運資金壓力。

Yes. Adam, thanks for the question. So in terms of the share buybacks, yes, we -- as you rightly noted, we did execute the entire $1 billion in -- since we announced it in the buyback in Q2.

是的。亞當，謝謝你的問題。因此，就股票回購而言，是的，我們——正如你正確指出的那樣，我們確實執行了全部 10 億美元——因為我們在第二季度的回購中宣布了這一點。

Looking forward, you're right, in terms of the additional buyback, that is anticipated to be completed over the next 5 quarters through the end of 2023. But I also want to emphasize, partially getting to one of your questions, that we see a rich pipeline of opportunities even on the M&A side. And it is, as always, our responsibility to continue evaluating that. And if we find the right acquisition with the right set of capabilities at the right price, absolutely, we would divert potential capital to that in lieu of buybacks. But absent that, we anticipate to complete this by the end of 2023.

展望未來，就額外回購而言，您是對的，預計將在接下來的 5 個季度到 2023 年底完成。但我也想強調，部分解決您的一個問題，我們看到即使在併購方面，也有豐富的機會渠道。一如既往，我們有責任繼續評估這一點。如果我們以合適的價格找到具有合適能力的合適收購，我們絕對會將潛在資本轉移到該收購上，而不是回購。但如果沒有這一點，我們預計將在 2023 年底之前完成這項工作。

In terms of CapEx, we had signaled about $1.3 billion for this year. We remain on track to be around that, maybe slightly under. And we anticipate that similar level of spend to continue over the next couple of years as well, given the significant need for adding capacity, as Juan mentioned, but also some of the additional high-return projects we see on the horizon such as the analytics and digital automation of our facilities. So we see rich opportunities to reinvest in the business as well as potentially explore more M&A.

就資本支出而言，我們今年預計約為 13 億美元。我們仍有望實現這一目標，可能略低於這一水平。我們預計未來幾年類似的支出水平也將繼續，因為正如 Juan 提到的那樣，考慮到增加容量的巨大需求，以及我們看到的一些額外的高回報項目，例如分析和我們設施的數字自動化。因此，我們看到了對該業務進行再投資以及探索更多併購的豐富機會。

One other point that's very important to highlight, and this really underscores our emphasis on driving returns, which is not just focusing on the profitability but also on the asset, on the denominator is a $1 billion challenge. Even in the face of this outstanding performance this year, the teams are rigorously focused on reducing the assets deployed to produce that profit. And the $1 billion challenge, we actually anticipated to -- we've actually got -- we've got cash in hand as of last week of $1 billion, as Juan noted. So I think it's important to note that we are very focused on driving returns, enhance that 13% that we are very proud of we achieved in 3Q. So I'll pause there.

還有一點非常重要，這確實強調了我們對推動回報的重視，這不僅關注盈利能力，還關注資產，分母是 10 億美元的挑戰。即使面對今年的出色表現，團隊仍嚴格專注於減少為產生利潤而部署的資產。正如胡安所說，我們實際上預計到了 10 億美元的挑戰——我們實際上已經得到了——截至上週，我們手頭有 10 億美元的現金。因此，我認為重要的是要注意，我們非常專注於推動回報，提高我們在第三季度實現的 13%，我們對此感到非常自豪。所以我會停在那裡。

Thank you. We have no further questions for today. So I'll hand back to Megan Britt for any further remarks.

謝謝你。我們今天沒有其他問題了。因此，我將把任何進一步的意見交給梅根布里特。

Thank you for joining us today. Please feel free to follow up with me if you have any other questions. Have a good day, and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時與我聯繫。祝您有美好的一天，感謝您對 ADM 的時間和興趣。

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您加入今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。