Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the ADM Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎參加 ADM 2021 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，此通話正在錄音中。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Vikram Luthar, Senior Vice President, Head of Investor Relations, Chief Financial Officer, Nutrition for ADM. Mr. Luthar, you may begin.

我現在想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人 Vikram Luthar，他是 ADM 營養部高級副總裁、投資者關係主管、首席財務官。 Luthar 先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Brieka. Good morning and welcome to ADM's fourth quarter earnings webcast. Starting tomorrow, a replay of today's webcast will be available at adm.com.

謝謝你，布里卡。早上好，歡迎收聽 ADM 的第四季度收益網絡直播。從明天開始，今天的網絡廣播將在 adm.com 上重播。

For those following the presentation, please turn to Slide 2, the company's safe harbor statement, which says that some of our comments and materials constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risks and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation, and you should carefully review the assumptions and factors in our SEC reports. To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events.

對於跟隨演示的人，請轉到幻燈片 2，該公司的安全港聲明，其中表示我們的一些評論和材料構成前瞻性聲明，反映了管理層對未來經濟環境、行業狀況、公司業績和財務結果。這些陳述和材料基於許多具有風險和不確定性的假設和因素。 ADM 在其提交給 SEC 的報告中提供了有關可能導致實際結果與本演示文稿中的結果大不相同的假設和因素的額外信息，您應該仔細查看我們 SEC 報告中的假設和因素。在適用法律允許的範圍內，ADM 不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

On today's webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will provide an overview of the quarter and the year. Our Chief Financial Officer, Ray Young, will review the drivers of our performance as well as corporate results and financial highlights. Then Juan will discuss our outlook. After which, they will take your questions.

在今天的網絡直播中，我們的董事長兼首席執行官胡安·盧西亞諾將概述本季度和年度。我們的首席財務官 Ray Young 將審查我們業績的驅動因素以及公司業績和財務亮點。然後胡安將討論我們的前景。之後，他們會回答你的問題。

Please turn to Slide 3. I will now turn the call over to Juan.

請轉到幻燈片 3。我現在將把電話轉給胡安。

Thank you, Vikram. Our team delivered a super fourth quarter. This morning, we reported record fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.50. Adjusted segment operating profit was $1.4 billion, 23% higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. Our trailing 4-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $4.9 billion, $1.25 billion more than a year ago. And our trailing 4-quarter average adjusted ROIC was 10%, meeting our objectives.

謝謝你，維克拉姆。我們的團隊在第四節表現出色。今天上午，我們報告了創紀錄的第四季度調整後每股收益 1.50 美元。調整後的部門營業利潤為 14 億美元，比 2020 年第四季度增長 23%。我們過去 4 個季度的調整後 EBITDA 為 49 億美元，比一年前增加 12.5 億美元。我們過去的 4 個季度平均調整後的投資回報率為 10%，達到了我們的目標。

Slide 4, please. That performance represented a strong finish to an outstanding 2021. For the full year, our adjusted EPS was $5.19, also a record. And full year adjusted segment operating profit was $4.8 billion. This excellent performance was reflected across the company.

請幻燈片 4。這一表現代表了出色的 2021 年的強勁收官。全年，我們調整後的每股收益為 5.19 美元，也是創紀錄的。全年調整後的部門營業利潤為 48 億美元。這種優異的表現在整個公司都得到了體現。

The Ag Services and Oilseeds team's actions to improve their business portfolio and strengthen their operating model continued to enable superior performance in a strong market environment. AS&O delivered full year 2021 OP of $2.8 billion, with each subsegment performing at or near historic highs.

Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 團隊為改善其業務組合和加強其運營模式而採取的行動繼續在強勁的市場環境中實現卓越的表現。 AS&O 交付了 28 億美元的 2021 年全年營業收入，每個子板塊的表現都處於或接近歷史高位。

Carbohydrate Solutions executed phenomenally well to deliver full year operating profits of $1.3 billion. And the team is continuing the evolution of Carbohydrate Solutions from the sale of our Peoria dry mill and the announcement of the sustainable aviation fuel MOU; to our agreement with LG Chem and the continued growth of our exciting biosolutions platform, which delivered new revenue wins with an annualized run rate of almost $100 million; to the project we announced earlier this month to further decarbonize our operations by connecting 2 other major processing facilities to our Decatur carbon capture and storage capabilities.

Carbohydrate Solutions 的表現非常出色，全年營業利潤達到 13 億美元。並且該團隊正在通過出售我們的 Peoria 乾磨機和宣布可持續航空燃料諒解備忘錄繼續發展碳水化合物解決方案；我們與 LG Chem 的協議以及我們令人興奮的生物解決方案平台的持續增長，該平台以近 1 億美元的年化運行率帶來了新的收入；我們本月早些時候宣布的項目通過將其他 2 個主要加工設施與我們的迪凱特碳捕獲和儲存能力連接起來，進一步使我們的業務脫碳。

The Nutrition team once again delivered industry-leading revenue and OP growth, with full year revenues up 16% and full year OP of $691 million, representing a 20% year-over-year increase. We also continued to enhance our Nutrition business with strategic investments targeted at growing areas of demand, including soya protein, which will expand our participation in alternative proteins; PetDine, which substantially enhance our presence in pet food and treats; Deerland, which continued the expansion of our functional probiotics and enzymes portfolio within our global Health & Wellness business; and FISA, which enhance our flavor footprint by opening up new growth opportunities in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Nutrition 團隊再次實現了行業領先的收入和 OP 增長，全年收入增長 16%，全年 OP 為 6.91 億美元，同比增長 20%。我們還通過針對需求增長領域的戰略投資繼續加強我們的營養業務，包括大豆蛋白，這將擴大我們對替代蛋白質的參與； PetDine，這大大提高了我們在寵物食品和零食中的存在； Deerland，繼續在我們的全球健康與保健業務中擴展我們的功能性益生菌和酶產品組合；和 FISA，通過在拉丁美洲和加勒比地區開闢新的增長機會來增強我們的風味足跡。

Slide 5, please. Last month, at our Global Investor Day, we unveiled our strategic plan and reiterated our balanced financial framework for value creation, including using our strong cash flows to deliver both growth investments and distributions to shareholders. We are confident in our plan and and committed to continuing to deliver value for our shareholders which is why we are pleased to announce an 8% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.40 per share. We are proud of our record of 90 uninterrupted years of dividends and more than 40 years of consecutive annual dividend increases, and we are pleased to continue to follow through on our commitment to shareholder value creation. It's been a great year, and we're excited about what's to come. Our continued actions to build a better ADM and dynamically align it with the global trends of food security, health and well-being and sustainability, and the steadfast advancement of our productivity and innovation initiatives will help propel our 2022 results.

請幻燈片 5。上個月，在我們的全球投資者日，我們公佈了我們的戰略計劃，並重申了我們創造價值的平衡財務框架，包括利用我們強大的現金流為股東提供增長投資和分配。我們對我們的計劃充滿信心，並致力於繼續為我們的股東創造價值，這就是為什麼我們很高興地宣布將我們的季度股息提高 8% 至每股 0.40 美元。我們為 90 年不間斷的股息和 40 多年連續年度股息增長的記錄感到自豪，我們很高興繼續履行我們對創造股東價值的承諾。這是偉大的一年，我們對即將發生的事情感到興奮。我們將繼續採取行動建立更好的 ADM，並使其與全球糧食安全、健康、福祉和可持續性趨勢保持一致，我們的生產力和創新計劃的穩步推進將有助於推動我們 2022 年的成果。

I will talk in more detail about the upcoming calendar year shortly. But first, I'd like to turn the call over to Ray to review our business performance. Ray?

我將在不久後更詳細地討論即將到來的日曆年。但首先，我想將電話轉給 Ray，以審查我們的業務績效。射線？

Yes. Thanks, Juan. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone.

是的。謝謝，胡安。大家早上好，下午好。

Slide 6, please. The Ag Services and Oilseeds team capped off really a truly impressive year, successfully navigating through supply chain challenges to deliver results largely in line with the extremely strong prior year quarter. The Ag Services team performed well in an environment of continued strong global demand, including significantly increased export volumes for customers outside of China. Global trade was substantially higher year-over-year, driven by solid risk management and improved results in global ocean freight. Overall, Ag Services delivered strong results, just slightly off the outstanding fourth quarter of 2020 when we benefit from exceptionally high export margins.

請幻燈片 6。 Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 團隊結束了真正令人印象深刻的一年，成功地克服了供應鏈挑戰，取得了與去年同期極為強勁的業績基本一致的結果。 Ag Services 團隊在全球需求持續強勁的環境中表現良好，包括中國以外客戶的出口量顯著增加。在穩健的風險管理和全球海運業績改善的推動下，全球貿易同比大幅增長。總體而言，Ag Services 取得了強勁的業績，僅略低於 2020 年第四季度出色的業績，當時我們受益於異常高的出口利潤率。

Crushing executed well on the continued solid demand environment for both soybean meal and vegetable oil. Lower results in EMEA versus a very strong fourth quarter of 2020 and approximately $250 million in net negative timing impacts versus negative $125 million in the prior year quarter drove overall results lower year-over-year. The majority of those negative timing effects are expected to reverse in the first half of 2022.

壓榨在豆粕和植物油需求持續強勁的環境下表現良好。與非常強勁的 2020 年第四季度相比，歐洲、中東和非洲地區的業績較低，淨負時間影響約為 2.5 億美元，而去年同期為負 1.25 億美元，導致整體業績同比下降。預計這些負面時間效應中的大部分將在 2022 年上半年逆轉。

The Refined Products and Other team delivered substantially higher results versus the prior year period, driven by strong volumes and margins in North America for refined oils and improved biodiesel margins in North America and EMEA, which more than offset weaker South American results due to the reduced biodiesel mandate.

與去年同期相比，精煉產品和其他團隊的業績顯著提高，這得益於北美精煉油的強勁銷量和利潤率，以及北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區生物柴油利潤率的提高，這足以抵消南美業績疲軟的影響。生物柴油任務。

Equity earnings from Wilmar were higher year-over-year. Looking ahead, we expect a strong first quarter from Ag Services and Oilseeds, higher than the first quarter of 2021 and in line with the just-ended fourth quarter.

豐益國際的股票收益同比增長。展望未來，我們預計 Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 第一季度將表現強勁，高於 2021 年第一季度，與剛剛結束的第四季度持平。

Slide 7, please. Carbohydrate Solutions' fourth quarter results were more than double the prior year quarter. In Starches and Sweeteners subsegment, including ethanol production from our wet mills, results were lower versus the fourth quarter of 2020, driven by higher input costs, including energy costs in EMEA as well as lower wheat milling volumes, partially offset by continued strong ethanol margins. Volumes for North America Sweeteners and Starches were largely flat year-over-year.

請幻燈片 7。 Carbohydrate Solutions 第四季度的業績是去年同期的兩倍多。在澱粉和甜味劑子領域，包括我們濕磨機的乙醇生產，由於投入成本增加（包括歐洲、中東和非洲地區的能源成本）以及小麥製粉量的下降，結果低於 2020 年第四季度，部分被持續強勁的乙醇利潤率所抵消.北美甜味劑和澱粉的銷量同比基本持平。

Vantage Corn Processor results were again substantially higher year-over-year, driven by historically strong industry ethanol margins as a result of strong demand relative to supply as well as increased sales volumes due to production at the 2 dry mills that were idle in the previous year period. As we look ahead, we believe the first quarter for Carbohydrate Solutions should be similar to or slightly above the strong first quarter of 2021.

Vantage 玉米加工機的業績同比再次大幅增長，原因是由於需求相對於供應強勁，以及由於先前閒置的 2 家乾磨機的生產導致銷量增加，導致行業乙醇利潤率處於歷史高位年期間。展望未來，我們認為碳水化合物解決方案的第一季度應該類似於或略高於強勁的 2021 年第一季度。

Slide 8, please. The Nutrition business closed out a year of consistent and strong growth, with fourth quarter revenues 19% higher year-over-year, 21% on a constant currency basis, with 26% higher profits year-over-year and sustained strong EBITDA margins. Human Nutrition had a great fourth quarter, with revenue growth of 21% on a constant currency basis and substantially higher profits.

請幻燈片 8。營養業務以持續強勁的增長結束了一年，第四季度收入同比增長 19%，按固定匯率計算增長 21%，利潤同比增長 26%，並保持強勁的 EBITDA 利潤率。 Human Nutrition 第四季度表現出色，按固定匯率計算，收入增長 21%，利潤大幅提高。

Flavors continued its growth trajectory, driven primarily by improved product mix in EMEAI and continued strong performance from North America, partially offset by weaker APAC results. In Specialty Ingredients, overall profits for the fourth quarter were in line with the year ago period as strong demand for plant-based proteins offset the impact of onetime insurance proceeds in the fourth quarter of 2020.

風味繼續其增長軌跡，主要受歐洲、中東和非洲地區產品組合改善和北美持續強勁表現的推動，部分被亞太地區疲軟的業績所抵消。在特種成分方面，第四季度的整體利潤與去年同期持平，因為對植物蛋白的強勁需求抵消了 2020 年第四季度一次性保險收益的影響。

Health & Wellness was higher versus the prior year quarter as the business continued to deliver growing profits in bioactives and fermentation. Animal Nutrition revenue was up 21% on a constant currency basis, and operating profit was much higher year-over-year, driven primarily by continued strength in amino acids.

由於該業務在生物活性物質和發酵方面的利潤不斷增長，Health & Wellness 與去年同期相比有所提高。動物營養收入按固定匯率計算增長了 21%，營業利潤同比大幅增長，這主要受氨基酸持續強勁的推動。

Now looking ahead, we expect Nutrition to continue to grow operating profits at a 15%-plus rate for calendar year 2022, with the first quarter similar to the first quarter of 2021 with continued revenue growth offset by some higher costs upfront in the year and the absence of the onetime benefits we saw in the first quarter of the prior year.

現在展望未來，我們預計 Nutrition 2022 日曆年的營業利潤將繼續以 15% 以上的速度增長，第一季度與 2021 年第一季度相似，持續的收入增長被今年前期的一些較高成本和沒有我們在去年第一季度看到的一次性福利。

Slide 9, please. Now let me finish up with a few observations from the Other segment as well as some of the Corporate line items. Other Business results were substantially higher, driven primarily by higher captive insurance underwriting results as the prior year quarter included larger intracompany insurance settlements. For calendar year 2022, we expect Other Business results to be similar to 2021. Although for the first quarter, we expect a loss of about $25 million due to insurance settlements currently planned. Net interest expense increased year-over-year on higher short-term borrowings.

請幻燈片 9。現在讓我以其他部分以及一些公司行項目的一些觀察來結束。其他業務業績大幅增長，主要是由於上一季度的自保保險承保業績增加，包括更大的公司內部保險結算。對於 2022 日曆年，我們預計其他業務的結果將與 2021 年相似。儘管在第一季度，由於目前計劃的保險結算，我們預計損失約 2500 萬美元。由於短期借款增加，淨利息支出同比增加。

In the Corporate lines, unallocated corporate costs of $276 million were lower year-over-year due primarily to increased variable performance-related compensation expense accruals in the prior year, partially offset by higher IT offering in project-related costs and transfers of costs from business segments into centralized centers of excellence in supply chain and operations.

在公司業務中，未分配的公司成本為 2.76 億美元，同比下降，這主要是由於上一年與績效相關的可變薪酬費用應計增加，部分被項目相關成本中的 IT 產品增加和成本轉移所抵消。業務細分為集中的供應鍊和運營卓越中心。

We anticipate calendar year 2022 total corporate costs, including net interest, corporate unallocated and other corporate, to be in line with the $1.2 billion area, consistent with what I discussed at Global Investor Day with net interest roughly similar, corporate unallocated a bit higher and corporate other a bit lower.

我們預計 2022 日曆年企業總成本（包括淨利息、未分配企業和其他企業）將與 12 億美元的區域一致，與我在全球投資者日討論的內容一致，淨利息大致相似，未分配企業略高，公司其他有點低。

The effective tax rate for the fourth quarter of 2021 was approximately 21% compared to 8% in the prior year. The calendar year 2021 effective tax rate was approximately 17%, up from 5% in 2020. The increase for the calendar year was due primarily to changes in geographic mix of earnings and current year discrete tax items, primarily valuation allowance and return to provision adjustments. Looking ahead, we're expecting full year 2022 effective tax rate to be in the range of 16% to 19%. Our balance sheet remains solid, with a net debt-to-total capital ratio of about 28% and available liquidity of about $9 billion.

2021 年第四季度的有效稅率約為 21%，而去年同期為 8%。 2021 日曆年的有效稅率約為 17%，高於 2020 年的 5%。該日曆年的增長主要是由於收益的地域組合和本年度離散稅收項目的變化，主要是估值津貼和準備金回報調整.展望未來，我們預計 2022 年全年有效稅率將在 16% 至 19% 之間。我們的資產負債表保持穩健，淨債務與總資本的比率約為 28%，可用流動性約為 90 億美元。

With that, let me turn it back to Juan. Juan?

有了這個，讓我把它轉回到胡安。胡安？

Thank you, Ray. Slide 10, please. I hope most of you were able to join us on our Global Investor Day last month. There, we showed that we have consistently advanced our strategy from our work to improve ROIC through capital cost and cash; to our strategic growth and margin enhancement accomplishments, including the creation of a global Nutrition business; to today's focus on productivity and innovation. Thanks to this work, we are moving into 2022 with a better ADM, a more returns-focused organization with higher margins and less volatile earnings and a portfolio that is well positioned to capitalize on the positive structural changes being driven by the enduring global trends of food security, health and well-being and sustainability.

謝謝你，雷。請幻燈片 10。我希望你們中的大多數人能夠參加我們上個月的全球投資者日。在那裡，我們展示了我們始終如一地推進我們的戰略，以通過資本成本和現金提高投資回報率；對我們的戰略增長和利潤提升成就，包括創建全球營養業務；到今天對生產力和創新的關注。由於這項工作，我們正在進入 2022 年，擁有更好的 ADM、一個更注重回報、利潤率更高、收益波動更小的組織，以及一個能夠很好地利用由持久的全球趨勢推動的積極結構變化的投資組合糧食安全、健康和福祉以及可持續性。

Slide 11, please. Let me take a few moments to talk about how we see the 2022 environment. In Ag Services and Oilseeds, we see a continued favorable global demand environment. Due to a short crop in South America, with the magnitude of the shortfall still to be determined, we expect global ag commodity buyers will rely relatively more on the U.S. market for their needs, assuming we have a normal U.S. crop later this year.

請幻燈片 11。讓我花點時間談談我們如何看待 2022 年的環境。在農業服務和油籽方面，我們看到持續有利的全球需求環境。由於南美作物短缺，短缺的幅度仍有待確定，我們預計全球農業商品買家將相對更多地依賴美國市場來滿足他們的需求，假設今年晚些時候美國收成正常。

On the Oilseeds side, we're starting 2022 with strong soy crush margins. And as we discussed at Global Investor Day, we believe that increasing demand for meal as well as vegetable oil as a feedstock for renewable green diesel should continue to support the positive environment this year, with our soy crush margins in the range of $45 to $55 per metric ton.

在油籽方面，我們從 2022 年開始，大豆壓榨利潤率很高。正如我們在全球投資者日所討論的那樣，我們認為，對作為可再生綠色柴油原料的豆粕和植物油的需求不斷增加，今年應該會繼續支持積極的環境，我們的大豆壓榨利潤在 45 美元到 55 美元之間每公噸。

Assuming these dynamics play out, we believe that Ag Services and Oilseeds in 2022 has the potential to deliver operating profit similar to or better than 2021.

假設這些動態發揮作用，我們認為 Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 在 2022 年有可能實現與 2021 年相似或更好的營業利潤。

For Carbohydrate Solutions, we are assuming the demand and margin environment for our Starch and Sweetener products will be steady versus 2021. We expect the industry ethanol environment to continue to be constructive, supported by the recovery of domestic demand to pre-COVID levels, energy costs driving higher exports and better clarity on the regulatory landscape. With this in mind, we're assuming higher ADM ethanol volumes and EBITDA margins to average $0.15 to $0.25 for the calendar year. In addition, we are expecting our biosolutions platform to deliver another year of solid growth as we continue to evolve the Carbohydrate Solutions business. Putting it all together, we expect Carbohydrate Solutions to deliver full year operating profit slightly lower than their outstanding 2021.

對於碳水化合物解決方案，我們假設與 2021 年相比，我們的澱粉和甜味劑產品的需求和利潤環境將保持穩定。我們預計，在國內需求恢復到 COVID 之前水平、能源、能源等因素的支持下，乙醇行業環境將繼續具有建設性。成本推動更高的出口和更清晰的監管環境。考慮到這一點，我們假設 ADM 乙醇銷量和 EBITDA 利潤率在日曆年平均為 0.15 至 0.25 美元。此外，隨著我們繼續發展碳水化合物解決方案業務，我們預計我們的生物解決方案平台將實現又一年的穩健增長。綜上所述，我們預計碳水化合物解決方案的全年營業利潤將略低於其出色的 2021 年。

In Nutrition, we're expecting continued growth in demand for our unparalleled portfolio of nutrition ingredients and systems, along with the benefits of accretion from our recent acquisitions. With these dynamics, we expect 15-plus percent OP growth in 2022, revenue growth above 10% and EBITDA margins above 20% in Human Nutrition and high single digits in Animal Nutrition, consistent with targets we set out at our Global Investor Day.

在營養方面，我們預計對我們無與倫比的營養成分和系統組合的需求將持續增長，以及我們最近收購的增長帶來的好處。有了這些動態，我們預計 2022 年 OP 增長 15% 以上，人類營養業務收入增長超過 10%，EBITDA 利潤率超過 20%，動物營養業務實現高個位數，這與我們在全球投資者日設定的目標一致。

Slide 12, please. So as we look forward in 2022, we see a positive demand environment across our portfolio. And then we add to that things we can do better. Our execution was great in 2021, but we're always identifying opportunities for improvement. And we intend to do even more to meet this growing demand in 2022. Put it all together, and we're optimistic for another very strong performance in 2022 as we progress towards our strategic plans next earnings milestones of $6 to $7 per share.

請幻燈片 12。因此，當我們展望 2022 年時，我們看到整個投資組合的需求環境積極。然後我們添加一些我們可以做得更好的事情。我們在 2021 年的執行力非常好，但我們一直在尋找改進的機會。我們打算在 2022 年採取更多措施來滿足這一不斷增長的需求。綜上所述，我們對 2022 年的另一個非常強勁的表現持樂觀態度，因為我們正在朝著我們的戰略計劃邁進，下一個收益里程碑為每股 6 至 7 美元。

With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

有了這個，接線員，請打開問題線。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question from the phone lines comes from Ben Theurer of Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

Juan, Ray, congrats on those very strong results. So to start off, maybe just to stay a little bit within the outlook, I mean, clearly, you continue to have a very positive view on the segment side. But could you also share a little bit your assumptions in terms of CapEx needs and where you think investment needs to be put into in order to deliver on the actual supply of these? So a little bit of your CapEx program and how you feel about that then, ultimately, the results flowing down to net income and what your expectations are for 2022.

Juan, Ray，祝賀這些非常出色的結果。因此，首先，也許只是為了保持一點前景，我的意思是，很明顯，你繼續對細分市場持非常積極的看法。但是，您能否也分享一下您對資本支出需求的假設，以及您認為需要投入哪些投資以實現這些實際供應？因此，您的資本支出計劃的一點點以及您對此的感受，最終，結果會流向淨收入以及您對 2022 年的期望。

Yes. So many questions wrapped in one, Ben. Good job. On a CapEx perspective here, as you look at our strategic plan, most of our strategic plan is coming from organic growth and productivity. So in order to fund that, we can have a little bit higher CapEx this year of about $1.3 billion. That will be, of course, in some of the projects we need to do to expand like Spiritwood that we announced our JV with Marathon. But also, again, some productivity enhancements to make sure we deliver bigger volumes as we supply that demand.

是的。這麼多問題都包含在一個問題中，本。做得好。從資本支出的角度來看，當您查看我們的戰略計劃時，我們的大部分戰略計劃都來自有機增長和生產力。因此，為了為此提供資金，我們今年可以有更高的資本支出，約為 13 億美元。當然，這將是在我們宣布與 Marathon 建立合資企業的 Spiritwood 等我們需要做的一些擴展項目中。而且，同樣，一些生產力的提高，以確保我們在滿足需求時提供更大的產量。

As you know, we are facing 2022 with a very strong perspective for the first quarter. We are entering the year with great momentum as we left 2021 also in a big high. So at this point in time, we continue to see a very strong 2022. And I think I described it in all my commentary. Ag Services and Oilseeds continue to be firing in all cylinders, and we expect the year as good as last year or maybe even better.

如您所知，我們正面臨著 2022 年，第一季度的前景非常強勁。我們正以強勁的勢頭進入這一年，因為我們離開了 2021 年也處於一個很高的水平。所以在這個時間點，我們繼續看到非常強勁的 2022 年。我想我在所有評論中都描述了它。 Ag Services 和 Oilseeds 繼續全力以赴，我們預計今年將與去年一樣好，甚至可能更好。

Carb Solutions also going very strong with many -- with a very stable Starch and Sweeteners and with always some uncertainty on ethanol but with a favorable environment. And biosolutions continue to grow as we grew last year. And again, Nutrition going up above 15% per year, operating profit growth on double-digit revenue growth. So all in all, we feel very good about all the things that we can control.

碳水化合物解決方案也非常強大——澱粉和甜味劑非常穩定，乙醇總是存在一些不確定性，但環境有利。隨著我們去年的增長，生物解決方案繼續增長。再一次，Nutrition 以每年 15% 以上的速度增長，營業利潤增長以兩位數的收入增長。所以總而言之，我們對我們可以控制的所有事情都感覺很好。

Okay. Perfect. And then just one last question, just a quick one. If you think about your medium-term targets -- and I remember you've laid out obviously as well the initiatives for share buybacks, et cetera. But in light of the higher CapEx plus the increase in dividend, fair to assume that share buybacks, at least in the short term, aren't going to be a priority yet, correct?

好的。完美的。然後只是最後一個問題，只是一個快速的問題。如果你考慮一下你的中期目標——我記得你已經清楚地列出了股票回購等舉措。但鑑於較高的資本支出加上股息的增加，可以公平地假設股票回購至少在短期內不會成為優先事項，對嗎？

Yes. I think the priorities for capital allocation is to deleverage after we had maybe a couple of billion dollars invested in acquisitions, certainly fund the projects that we have in higher CapEx, as I described, and then the dividend -- to support the dividend. Of course, cash flow generation is strong in ADM. We focus a lot on that. So as cash flow becomes available, I mean, we're going to think in the -- again, in the 5-year plan, to have more buybacks in the later period. But if cash flow continues to be as strong, we might anticipate that a little bit. At this point in time, we don't expect significant M&A as part of our plan. So that will be the capital allocation decision.

是的。我認為資本配置的優先事項是在我們投資了數十億美元進行收購之後去槓桿化，當然，正如我所描述的那樣，為我們在較高資本支出中的項目提供資金，然後是股息 - 以支持股息。當然，ADM 的現金流生成能力很強。我們非常關注這一點。因此，隨著現金流變得可用，我的意思是，我們將再次考慮在 5 年計劃中，在後期進行更多的回購。但如果現金流繼續保持強勁，我們可能會對此有所預期。目前，我們預計不會將重大併購作為我們計劃的一部分。這將是資本分配決策。

Perfect. Juan, very clear. Thank you very much, and congrats again.

完美的。娟，很清楚。非常感謝，再次恭喜。

We now have the next question from Ben Bienvenu of Stephens.

我們現在有來自斯蒂芬斯的 Ben Bienvenu 的下一個問題。

Congrats on the strong quarter. I want to follow up on the outlook commentary, which was really helpful and detailed. Of particular interest to us is the Bioproducts commentary that you offered. I think within the Carbohydrate Solutions business, the commentary around Starches and Sweeteners makes sense. The Bioproducts obviously benefited from a very strong fourth quarter. And I suspect perhaps you had an opportunity to secure margins into the first quarter. But the commentary is pretty positive through the balance of the year, and I realize higher production will help in benefiting operating profit for that business. Can you talk a little bit about what informs your view for the strength of the ethanol business sustaining into 2022?

祝賀強勁的季度。我想跟進前景評論，這真的很有幫助而且很詳細。我們特別感興趣的是您提供的 Bioproducts 評論。我認為在碳水化合物解決方案業務中，關於澱粉和甜味劑的評論是有道理的。生物產品顯然受益於非常強勁的第四季度。我懷疑也許你有機會在第一季度獲得利潤。但是在今年餘下的時間裡，評論是相當積極的，我意識到更高的產量將有助於提高該業務的營業利潤。您能否談談您對乙醇業務持續到 2022 年的實力的看法？

Ben, it's Ray here. Yes, we finished up very strong in the Bioproducts business, ethanol specifically. The fourth quarter demand environment was very, very constructive. And I think that's just reflective of what was happening in terms of the recovery in driving miles in the United States. The holiday season gasoline demand was strong. That translates to strong demand for ethanol.

本，這裡是雷。是的，我們在生物產品業務（特別是乙醇）方面表現非常強勁。第四季度的需求環境非常非常有建設性。我認為這只是反映了美國行駛里程的恢復方面正在發生的事情。假日季節汽油需求強勁。這意味著對乙醇的強勁需求。

And on the supply side, I mean, actually, the industry had some supply challenges. And so that translated to a very robust environment. In fact, our EBITDA margins in the fourth quarter for our ethanol business were above $1 a gallon, which is very, very -- on a historical basis, very, very strong. We indicate that as we go into 2022, we feel optimistic about ethanol as well. Now while inventories have built up a little bit in January, and that's just a seasonal nature of ethanol -- of inventory builds, a couple of things give us optimism for 2022.

在供應方面，我的意思是，實際上，該行業面臨一些供應挑戰。這樣就轉化為一個非常強大的環境。事實上，我們乙醇業務第四季度的 EBITDA 利潤率高於每加侖 1 美元，從歷史上看，這是非常非常強勁的。我們表示，隨著我們進入 2022 年，我們也對乙醇感到樂觀。現在，雖然 1 月份庫存有所增加，而這只是乙醇的季節性性質——庫存增加，但有幾件事讓我們對 2022 年持樂觀態度。

Number one, we do expect domestic demand for ethanol to be strong. In fact, it will be a growth year-over-year from '21 to '22. And frankly, we're seeing ethanol demand probably returning back to pre-pandemic levels of demand here in the United States. So we're talking about domestic demand probably in the 14-billion-gallon level.

第一，我們確實預計國內對乙醇的需求會很強勁。事實上，從 21 年到 22 年，這將是同比增長。坦率地說，我們看到美國的乙醇需求可能會回到大流行前的需求水平。所以我們談論的國內需求可能在 140 億加侖的水平。

Secondly, I think you're going to see a recovery around the world on gasoline demand and, hence, ethanol demand as well. And as you know, with the movement in crude oil prices in general, ethanol is becoming one of the most attractive oxygenates in the world. So we do see the export demand side of the equation in 2022 being also very constructive for ethanol, with ethanol probably recovering to 1.4 billion to 1.5 billion gallons in terms of export demand. So that's very, very constructive.

其次，我認為您將看到世界各地的汽油需求復蘇，因此乙醇需求也將復蘇。如您所知，隨著原油價格的總體波動，乙醇正成為世界上最具吸引力的含氧化合物之一。因此，我們確實認為 2022 年出口需求方面對乙醇也非常有利，乙醇的出口需求可能會恢復到 14 億至 15 億加侖。所以這是非常非常有建設性的。

Thirdly, we do believe that the regulatory landscape has clarified itself in the context of small refinery exemptions. I know there's some challenges going on here. But what we see right now is, going forward, smaller SREs, as they call it, small refinery exemptions, will not have an impact in terms of kind of like the supply-demand balances. And we talk internally that when they say 15 billion gallons, it means 15 billion gallons, right, in terms of what we need to deliver to the marketplace. So that's actually a positive also for our industry. And then they've also remanded about 250 million gallons in terms of requirements as well going forward.

第三，我們確實認為，在小型煉油廠豁免的背景下，監管環境已經明確。我知道這裡有一些挑戰。但我們現在看到的是，展望未來，小型 SRE（他們稱之為小型煉油廠豁免）不會像供需平衡那樣產生影響。我們在內部說，當他們說 150 億加侖時，這意味著 150 億加侖，對，就我們需要向市場提供的產品而言。所以這實際上對我們的行業也是積極的。然後他們還還押了大約 2.5 億加侖的需求以及未來的需求。

So when you add it all together, the fact that we're starting off the year with a fairly balanced supply-demand perspective in terms of U.S. ethanol inventories; two, a demand environment that's going to be even more constructive versus 2021; and three, a regulatory environment that seems to be supportive of where we want to go, we're actually having a constructive viewpoint.

因此，當您將所有這些加在一起時，我們在年初的美國乙醇庫存方面的供需觀點相當平衡；第二，與 2021 年相比，需求環境將更具建設性；第三，一個似乎支持我們想去的地方的監管環境，我們實際上有一個建設性的觀點。

As Juan indicated, directionally, we're assuming $0.15 to $0.25 per gallon as EBITDA margins for 2022. That's lower than the '21 assumption, and maybe, we're just being a little bit conservative about this juncture as we start off the year. But nevertheless, we do believe that it should be a favorable environment for us as we move forward into 2022.

正如胡安指出的那樣，在方向上，我們假設 2022 年的 EBITDA 利潤率為每加侖 0.15 美元至 0.25 美元。這低於 21 年的假設，也許我們只是在今年開始時對這個時刻有點保守.但是，儘管如此，我們確實相信，隨著我們進入 2022 年，這對我們來說應該是一個有利的環境。

Okay. That's great. Very helpful, Ray. And my second question is just related to the global operating environment and, in particular, some of the goings-on in Ukraine at the moment and tensions there. Is that -- how is that manifesting itself today in terms of the impact to your business? I know from an asset footprint perspective, you guys don't have super heavy exposure there, but they are a major producer of rapeseed, corn, wheat, barley. So I'm curious what impact you're seeing in the market today and how you think about the potential impact as we look into 2022, recognizing a lot of different scenarios could play out there.

好的。那太棒了。非常有幫助，雷。我的第二個問題與全球運營環境有關，特別是烏克蘭目前的一些情況和那裡的緊張局勢。是嗎？就對您的業務的影響而言，這在今天如何體現出來？我知道從資產足蹟的角度來看，你們在那裡的敞口並不大，但他們是油菜籽、玉米、小麥、大麥的主要生產國。因此，我很好奇您今天在市場上看到了什麼影響，以及您如何看待我們展望 2022 年的潛在影響，認識到可能會出現許多不同的情況。

Yes, Ben. Of course, you realize the supply of many commodities remain at their tightest levels in years. So I think any news around the world of disruption, whether it's weather or geopolitics, I mean it's going to prolong the high prices well into probably 2023.

是的，本。當然，您會意識到許多商品的供應量仍處於多年來最緊張的水平。因此，我認為世界各地的任何破壞性消息，無論是天氣還是地緣政治，我的意思是它將把高價格延長到大概 2023 年。

As you described, at this point in time, there are 3 things. We're all looking at the development of the crops in South America as they need to go through February rains, especially in Argentina and the harvest in Brazil. We are looking, of course, at geopolitical conflicts and like the one you described and also the expectations of the crop in the U.S., all these in the middle of a very strong demand.

正如你所描述的，在這個時間點，有 3 件事。我們都在關注南美作物的發展，因為它們需要經歷二月份的降雨，尤其是在阿根廷和巴西的收成。當然，我們正在關注地緣政治衝突，就像您所描述的那樣，以及對美國作物的預期，所有這些都處於非常強勁的需求之中。

So as you said, Ukraine is a big exporter, especially if you think about corn and the ability to supply China needs that you have the 3 main suppliers with the U.S. and you have Ukraine and you have Brazil. So hopefully, Brazil, with this range will have a safrinha crop that is may be a little bit better than what we expected. But among these 3 countries need to cover the supply of corn. And corn today is one of the best sources of energy and fat, and they are one of the cheapest ones. So it's a very demanded product. So we're all paying attention to what happened with that.

所以正如你所說，烏克蘭是一個大出口國，特別是如果你考慮玉米和供應中國的能力需要你有美國的 3 個主要供應商，你有烏克蘭和巴西。因此，希望巴西在這個範圍內的番紅收成可能比我們預期的要好一些。但在這3個國家中需要覆蓋玉米的供應。今天的玉米是最好的能量和脂肪來源之一，也是最便宜的來源之一。所以這是一個非常需要的產品。所以我們都在關注發生了什麼。

Okay. Juan, congrats on the quarter and best of luck into 2022.

好的。胡安，恭喜這個季度，祝你好運進入 2022 年。

We now have another question on the phone lines from Adam Samuelson of Goldman Sachs.

我們現在有另一個來自高盛的亞當薩繆爾森的電話問題。

I guess my first question, I want to come back to the outlook in Carbohydrate Solutions and just make sure I'm understanding the moving pieces to think about a full year 2022 outlook that's only slightly below 2021, where both your '22 -- '21 performance was above what you would have expected in 2025 for the unit. And just trying to think about the moving pieces with ethanol, and maybe there's a clarification point on the -- when you talk about ethanol margins, $0.15 to $0.25 a gallon EBITDA, is that purely the dry mill gallons within Vantage Corn Processors? Is that including the wet mill?

我想我的第一個問題是，我想回到碳水化合物解決方案的前景，並確保我理解動人因素，以考慮僅略低於 2021 年的 2022 年全年前景，您的“22 - ” 21 的性能高於您在 2025 年對該單位的預期。只是想想想乙醇的運動部件，也許有一個澄清點 - 當你談論乙醇利潤時，每加侖 EBITDA 為 0.15 美元至 0.25 美元，這純粹是 Vantage 玉米處理器中的干磨加侖嗎？包括濕磨機嗎？

And I guess in that vein, in the fourth quarter, given the strong ethanol margin environment, I guess I was surprised just to have seen the Starches and Sweeteners business be down if that was -- should have also been benefiting from a strong U.S. ethanol environment. So maybe just help us think about some of the bridges of the pieces within the segment to get you to the '22 outlook.

而且我想在第四季度，鑑於強勁的乙醇利潤率環境，我想我很驚訝看到澱粉和甜味劑業務下降，如果那是 - 也應該從強勁的美國乙醇中受益環境。因此，也許只是幫助我們思考該細分市場中的一些橋樑，以使您了解 22 年的前景。

Yes, Adam. It's Ray here. So $0.15 to $0.25 EBITDA margin represents total ethanol, wet mill and dry mills. So that's a combined basis on that assumption. In the fourth quarter, we had, as you saw, an outstanding quarter. VCP really benefited from the ethanol margins. And clearly, Starches and Sweeteners also benefit as well on the ethanol side of the business.

是的，亞當。這裡是雷。因此，0.15 美元至 0.25 美元的 EBITDA 利潤率代表乙醇、濕磨機和乾磨機的總和。因此，這是基於該假設的綜合基礎。如您所見，在第四季度，我們有一個出色的季度。 VCP 確實受益於乙醇利潤。顯然，澱粉和甜味劑也從乙醇業務中受益。

Our net corn cost was a little bit higher in the fourth quarter for Starches and Sweeteners. And if you recall, when we hedged 2021 for corn, we put on a very attractive hedge position in 2020 for a lot of our 2021 requirements, but not all the requirements. And so when we got to the fourth quarter, I think we were a little bit more exposed on that corn. And so therefore, the higher net corn cost translates maybe a little bit lower margin on the sweetener side of the business there.

我們在第四季度的澱粉和甜味劑淨玉米成本略高。如果您還記得，當我們對 2021 年的玉米進行對沖時，我們在 2020 年為我們 2021 年的許多要求（但不是所有要求）設置了非常有吸引力的對沖頭寸。因此，當我們進入第四季度時，我認為我們對玉米的風險更大。因此，較高的淨玉米成本可能意味著該業務的甜味劑方面的利潤率可能會降低一些。

We also had some operating challenges with the start-up of Bulgaria in Europe, which, again, this is an opportunity, frankly, speaking, for us in 2022, right? And we also had some higher energy costs over in Europe as well. As you know, natural gas prices ran up significantly in the back part of the year. So that impacted our energy costs over in Europe, and that flowed through in terms of our Starches and Sweeteners segment.

隨著保加利亞在歐洲的啟動，我們也遇到了一些運營挑戰，坦率地說，這對我們來說是 2022 年的機會，對吧？我們在歐洲也有一些更高的能源成本。如您所知，今年下半年天然氣價格大幅上漲。因此，這影響了我們在歐洲的能源成本，並且影響了我們的澱粉和甜味劑部門。

So there are a bunch of puts and takes that moved through the fourth quarter. Again, we think a lot of that will be behind us because I think we've put ourselves -- put in a good hedge position for 2022. And then also, we believe that we've got -- the Bulgarian project, we've addressed a lot of those issues, and that should be a plus delta for us in 2022 as well.

因此，第四季度有很多看跌期權。再一次，我們認為很多事情都會過去，因為我認為我們已經把自己放在了 2022 年的良好對沖位置。然後，我們相信我們已經有了 - 保加利亞項目，我們我們已經解決了很多這樣的問題，這對我們來說在 2022 年也應該是一個加分項。

Okay. That color is really helpful. And if I could just switch gears over to the Nutrition segment. And maybe help us think a little bit about the expectations for the business on an organic basis in 2022. I know there was a -- you did some M&A through the second half of 2021. So you talked to 10%-plus revenue growth and 15%-plus profit growth. Can you help us think about the M&A contributions within that? And any specific parts of the business that you might be more optimistic than the segment average in areas where the growth might be a little below that?

好的。這個顏色真的很有幫助。如果我可以切換到營養部分。也許可以幫助我們稍微考慮一下對 2022 年有機業務的預期。我知道有一個 - 你在 2021 年下半年進行了一些併購。所以你談到了 10% 以上的收入增長和15% 以上的利潤增長。您能幫我們想想其中的併購貢獻嗎？在增長可能略低於該增長的領域，您可能比細分平均水平更樂觀的業務的任何特定部分？

Yes. I think most of 2022 will be on an organic growth basis, if you will. The contribution still of the acquisitions, it's going to happen a little bit later. These acquisitions are not made, to be honest, to -- for the accretion of 2022. As you recall, we are just building the Nutrition business. So this is the strategic importance of positioning ourselves in the areas where we've been informing you. I think that we always like to have the policy of no surprises. And I think you heard me saying Health & Wellness is an area where we were going to invest, and that's where we did Deerland pet food, and that's where we did PetDine.

是的。如果你願意的話，我認為 2022 年的大部分時間都將建立在有機增長的基礎上。收購的貢獻仍在，稍後會發生。老實說，這些收購併不是為了 2022 年的增長。你還記得，我們只是在建立營養業務。因此，這是將我們定位在我們一直通知您的領域的戰略重要性。我認為我們總是喜歡有沒有驚喜的政策。我想你聽到我說健康與保健是我們要投資的一個領域，這就是我們做 Deerland 寵物食品的地方，也是我們做 PetDine 的地方。

We continue to think about the incredible potential of plant-based proteins, and that's where we did Sojaprotein, which is making us more international. And I talked about how powerful we are in flavors, but we were underrepresented, if you will, in the emerging markets. And that's why we invested in capacity in Pinghu for flavors in China. And we also acquired FISA that gives us a beachhead into Central America, Caribbean and maybe northern part of Latin America.

我們繼續思考植物蛋白的巨大潛力，這就是我們做大豆蛋白的地方，這使我們更加國際化。我談到了我們在口味方面的實力，但如果你願意的話，我們在新興市場的代表性不足。這就是為什麼我們在平湖投資了中國風味的產能。我們還收購了 FISA，這讓我們在中美洲、加勒比海甚至拉丁美洲北部建立了灘頭陣地。

So when we look at the business and our confidence in the 15%-plus organic operating profit growth is driven by our pipeline and our win rates, to be honest, that's why we look. Our pipeline continues to increase. Our product launches continue to increase and actually accelerate. And our win rates have almost doubled from 1 year to the other. So the business is operating very well. We guided flat for Q1 just because of the way some of the costs fall, and they are more front-loaded into next year. But this is a business, again that's been growing 34%, 20%. I think we're going to study life in the long term at this rate of 15%, 15% plus with double-digit organic growth basically without even touching the M&A for that.

因此，當我們審視業務時，我們對 15% 以上有機營業利潤增長的信心是由我們的管道和贏率驅動的，老實說，這就是我們關注的原因。我們的管道繼續增加。我們的產品發布不斷增加，實際上加速了。從一年到另一年，我們的獲勝率幾乎翻了一番。因此，該業務經營得非常好。我們將第一季度的預期持平，只是因為一些成本下降的方式，而且它們更多地提前到明年。但這是一項業務，再次增長了 34%、20%。我認為我們將以 15%、15% 以上的速度長期研究生活，並實現兩位數的有機增長，基本上不涉及併購。

We now have a question from Robert Moskow of Crédit Suisse.

我們現在有一個來自瑞士信貸的羅伯特莫斯科的問題。

Congrats on a great year. And maybe you've kind of implied this already. But your pricing for corn sweeteners in 2022, can you describe how the negotiations went? And it looks like what you're guiding to was kind of flattish profits in North America for corn sweeteners as a result of that pricing. Is that a fair assessment?

祝賀偉大的一年。也許你已經暗示了這一點。但是您在 2022 年對玉米甜味劑的定價，您能描述一下談判的進展情況嗎？看起來你所指導的是北美玉米甜味劑由於定價而導致的平淡利潤。這是一個公平的評價嗎？

Yes, Rob. I mean our objective is really to maintain margins. And so through the course of the negotiations, I think it's fair to make an assumption that we've been able to maintain margins and offset the higher corn costs that has occurred recently. So I think we've achieved that objective, and that's a fair assumption to assume as we go into 2022.

是的，羅伯。我的意思是我們的目標實際上是保持利潤。因此，在談判過程中，我認為可以假設我們已經能夠保持利潤率並抵消最近出現的較高的玉米成本。所以我認為我們已經實現了這個目標，這是我們進入 2022 年的合理假設。

Okay. And maybe a follow-up. The expansion of refined soybean oil is driven by the growing demand of renewable biodiesel. Have you been watching the industry -- the planned industry expansion for all of those refineries? And what kind of -- is it achieving what you'd expect? Are the -- is the capacity coming on line as expected? And is it having the results on demand for oil that you expected?

好的。也許還有後續。精煉豆油的擴張受到可再生生物柴油需求增長的推動。您是否一直在關注這個行業——所有這些煉油廠的行業擴張計劃？什麼樣的——它是否達到了你的預期？容量是否按預期上線？石油需求的結果是否符合您的預期？

Yes. Of course, we keep a close eye into that. You have to understand that at this point in time, demand continues to outpace even the announced capacity expansions. But there is a reality also in this world of supply shortages and labor issues that projects are not that easy to execute.

是的。當然，我們會密切關注這一點。你必須明白，在這個時間點，需求繼續超過已宣布的產能擴張。但在這個供應短缺和勞動力問題的世界中，也有一個現實是項目並不那麼容易執行。

So I think that when you look at the battery of announcements like the way we've seen, I think it's reasonable to put a percentage that is going to happen, either the reality or that they're all going to happen but in a little bit longer time line. So we tend to look at that from a long-term basis and maybe something like 2/3 or 75% will happen. At this point in time, we see the volume coming our way.

所以我認為，當你以我們所看到的方式查看一系列公告時，我認為給出一個將要發生的百分比是合理的，無論是現實還是它們都將發生，但在一點點時間線長一點。因此，我們傾向於從長期來看，也許會發生 2/3 或 75% 之類的事情。在這個時間點，我們看到成交量正在向我們襲來。

And you have to remember that the original oil story, Rob, it was due to tight palm oil around the world. And that drove soybean oil and other oils up. And now on top of that, now we have the demand for RGD. So that -- now there is a full confluence of raw materials to be able to supply that oil. And so yes, we are looking at this very closely. And at this point in time, everything is evolving as planned.

你必須記住，最初的石油故事，Rob，是由於世界各地的棕櫚油造成的。這推動了豆油和其他油類的上漲。現在最重要的是，現在我們對 RGD 有需求。所以——現在有一個完全融合的原材料能夠供應石油。所以是的，我們正在非常仔細地研究這個問題。在這個時間點，一切都在按計劃發展。

We now have Tom Palmer of JPMorgan.

我們現在有摩根大通的湯姆帕爾默。

Congratulations on the quarter. Maybe I can follow up on Rob's question just on the refined products outlook and maybe a little more specific on how you're thinking about the setup for 2022. We do have kind of maybe the first larger wave of facilities coming on line with pretreatment units, at least back half-weighted, I think. So maybe what's the assumption for refined products this year? And do you think that, that will -- that addition in terms of capacity is going to have much impact or, as you were kind of noting with Rob, maybe just with timing and kind of needs of still sourcing from -- at least a portion from third parties, it won't be as impactful?

祝賀本季度。也許我可以就 Rob 就精煉產品前景提出的問題進行跟進，也許可以更具體地談談您對 2022 年設置的看法。我們確實有可能是第一批與預處理單元一致的大型設施，至少後半部分加權，我想。那麼今年對精煉產品的假設是什麼？您是否認為，這將 - 容量方面的增加會產生很大影響，或者，正如您對 Rob 所指出的那樣，也許只是時間和仍然需要從 - 至少採購來自第三方的部分，它不會有影響嗎？

Yes, Tom. Listen, we continue to believe we will add around 1 billion gallons per year of incremental R&D -- RGD capacity and approach that 5 billion gallons total capacity by 2025. And as I was selling Rob, we continually restrain the announced capacity and analyze the market conditions. So we have several scenarios in this.

是的，湯姆。聽著，我們仍然相信我們每年將增加約 10 億加侖的增量研發——RGD 產能，到 2025 年將接近 50 億加侖的總產能。當我出售 Rob 時，我們不斷限制宣布的產能並分析市場條件。所以我們有幾個場景。

We do believe this announced capacity are important to -- and necessary to keep up with the expected demand growth for both vegetable oil, as I explained before, but also global meal demand needs. And at this point, vegetable oil consumption is still growing faster than supply. We've gotten a little bit good news from sun oil availability from the Black Sea that maybe will help bean oil tightness.

正如我之前解釋的那樣，我們確實認為，這一宣布的產能對於跟上植物油的預期需求增長以及全球膳食需求需求非常重要，並且是必要的。而在這一點上，植物油消費量的增長速度仍然快於供應量。我們從黑海的太陽油供應中得到了一些好消息，這可能有助於豆油的密封性。

And so regarding the pretreat comments, in the end, the vegetable oil will be required as a feedstock, and pricing will reflect the value of this feedstock, likely based on carbon intensity. So we could see some shift in value between the crude oil and the refining. I think what we need to realize is we are at the early stages of this industry formation. So we're going to see some of those movements. And sometimes, we're going to capture the value in one place. Sometimes, we're going to capture the value in another one.

因此，關於預處理意見，最終，植物油將被要求作為原料，定價將反映該原料的價值，可能基於碳強度。因此，我們可以看到原油和煉油之間的價值發生了一些變化。我認為我們需要意識到的是，我們正處於這個行業形成的早期階段。所以我們將看到其中的一些動作。有時，我們會在一個地方捕捉價值。有時，我們會在另一個中獲取價值。

But we are well positioned. Our biodiesel plants are all integrated in refineries and all that. So we are watching it very closely. We feel good about how it's developing so far.

但我們處於有利地位。我們的生物柴油工廠都集成在煉油廠等等。所以我們正在密切關注它。到目前為止，我們對它的發展感到滿意。

Great. And maybe I'll segue with that to the crushing side. It seems like you're starting off the year with quite strong soy crush margins, perhaps higher than maybe you're guiding to for the year. Is there, I guess, catalyst or a driver that maybe makes margins weaker? Is there a bit of conservatism embedded as we see headlines around lysine shortage? Is that something you're expecting to kind of resolve itself and maybe see still a very favorable crush environment but a little more normalized versus to start off the year?

偉大的。也許我會繼續堅持下去。看起來您今年開始時大豆壓榨利潤相當強勁，可能比您今年的指導要高。我猜，是否有催化劑或驅動因素可能使利潤率變弱？當我們看到關於賴氨酸短缺的頭條新聞時，是否存在一些保守主義？您是否希望這種事情能夠自行解決，並且可能仍然會看到一個非常有利的暗戀環境，但與年初相比更加正常化一些？

Yes. There are many -- of course, it's a large industry, so many puts and takes. When we look at the demand side, the forecasted 2022 poultry production is going to be a record and near record for beef and hogs. So protein demand continues to grow around the world, and that's sustaining a lot.

是的。有很多——當然，這是一個很大的行業，有很多投入和投入。從需求方面來看，預計 2022 年的家禽產量將創下牛肉和生豬的創紀錄水平，接近創紀錄水平。因此，世界各地的蛋白質需求持續增長，而且這種情況持續了很多。

There is a tight meat proteins and synthetic amino acids, and that's supporting soybean meal. Remember, I mentioned fat is very expensive today and energy as well. So corn, at this point in time, is the cheapest carbohydrate. That's pulling soybean meal into the ration. And we expect, at one point in time, the lysine market come maybe back into balance later in 2022. But still, the S&Ds are very beneficial to soybean meal and to crush.

有一種緊實的肉類蛋白質和合成氨基酸，這是支持豆粕的。請記住，我提到今天脂肪非常昂貴，而且能量也是如此。因此，此時玉米是最便宜的碳水化合物。這將豆粕納入口糧。我們預計，在某個時間點，賴氨酸市場可能會在 2022 年晚些時候恢復平衡。但是，S&D 仍然對豆粕和壓榨非常有利。

So I think also, don't forget, RGD is also changing the dynamics for soybean meal, making soybean meal from the U.S. much more competitive and able to gain some export markets. And when you have maybe a less-than-stellar soybean crop in Argentina, Argentina being such a strong exporter of meal, I think that bodes well for crush margins in North America and also in Europe.

所以我也認為，不要忘記，RGD 也在改變豆粕的動態，使美國的豆粕更具競爭力，並能夠獲得一些出口市場。當阿根廷的大豆產量可能不那麼出色時，阿根廷是一個如此強大的豆粕出口國，我認為這對北美和歐洲的壓榨利潤來說是個好兆頭。

We now have the next question from Vincent Andrews of Morgan Stanley.

我們現在有來自摩根士丹利的文森特安德魯斯的下一個問題。

This is Steve Haynes on for Vincent. I wanted to ask a question on the biosolutions business and the $100 million of annualized revenue in 2021. And if you could maybe just provide some more color on specific end markets where you're getting those wins and then how to think about the size of that going forward.

這是史蒂夫·海恩斯（Steve Haynes）代表文森特（Vincent）。我想問一個關於生物解決方案業務和 2021 年 1 億美元年化收入的問題。如果你可以在特定的終端市場上提供更多的色彩，你會在哪些方面獲得這些勝利，然後如何考慮規模繼續前進。

Yes. Thank you for the question, Steve. Listen, we are very excited about how that business is developing. I think we recognized in the past that, that business happened almost -- while we were not watching, and it was a customer pull more than our push. And now we have a segment approach to that. We have intentionality in developing that market. And that, as such, the opportunities have flourished.

是的。謝謝你的問題，史蒂夫。聽著，我們對這項業務的發展感到非常興奮。我認為我們過去認識到，業務幾乎發生了——在我們不注意的時候，這是客戶的拉動，而不是我們的推動。現在我們有一種細分方法。我們有意開發該市場。因此，機會已經蓬勃發展。

I would say a strong contribution from packaging; a strong contribution from fermentation, just we're helping other people that are creating some of these materials out of plant-based; personal and home care, very important segment that is growing; and a growing contribution from pharma, construction and plant treatment. So as you can tell, as we continue to deploy marketing resources into some of these segments, we continue to have success. So there are some segments that are more developed and larger for us and some segments that are more incipient. But I think it's going very well. We are working on the product mix as, sometimes, the growth is faster than our capacity. So we're trying to accommodate that. And we're going to be having more capacity coming up soon to be able to sustain this 10% growth rate of revenue that we have.

我想說的是包裝的巨大貢獻；發酵的巨大貢獻，只是我們正在幫助其他人用植物製造這些材料；個人和家庭護理，正在增長的非常重要的部分；製藥、建築和植物處理的貢獻越來越大。如您所知，隨著我們繼續將營銷資源部署到其中一些細分市場，我們將繼續取得成功。因此，有些細分市場對我們來說更發達、規模更大，而有些細分市場則更為初期。但我認為進展非常順利。我們正在研究產品組合，因為有時增長速度快於我們的能力。所以我們正在努力適應這種情況。我們很快就會有更多的產能來維持我們所擁有的 10% 的收入增長率。

We now have Ken Zaslow of BMO Capital Markets.

我們現在有 BMO Capital Markets 的 Ken Zaslow。

Let me just take a different approach. When you think about your -- you talk about all the things that are happening on the demand side, but at your Analyst Day, you kind of did talk about the cost structure increasing and that there were going to be some headwinds. As I look forward, these headwinds don't seem to be materializing to the extent. Or are they? And can you frame how you kind of put it during the Analyst Day and where you see they are going through -- no, what are you seeing now, where you see them to 2022? And are you really seeing them develop the way you thought they were? Or are they a little bit lower than you thought?

讓我採取不同的方法。當您考慮您的 - 您談論需求方面發生的所有事情時，但在您的分析師日，您確實談到了成本結構的增加，並且會有一些不利因素。正如我所期待的那樣，這些不利因素似乎並沒有在一定程度上實現。還是他們？您能否描述一下您在分析師日期間是如何表達的，以及您看到他們正在經歷什麼——不，您現在看到了什麼，到 2022 年您看到他們在哪裡？你真的看到他們按照你想像的方式發展嗎？或者他們比你想像的要低一點？

Yes. The dynamics here, Ken, of course, is we have forecasted or accounted for some -- the potential reversion of margins and some inflation, of course, that we were going to have. And that is difficult to estimate, the timing. And then we have productivity and innovation that is going to be growing in their impact as some of these projects develop.

是的。當然，這裡的動態，肯，是我們已經預測或解釋了一些——利潤率的潛在回歸和一些通貨膨脹，當然，這是我們將要擁有的。這很難估計，時間。然後，隨著其中一些項目的發展，我們的生產力和創新將越來越大。

So when we look at, if you will, at the negative side of the equation, at the positive side, we can control. On the negative side, we've put together several scenarios. And I would say the biggest manifestation of that, at this point in time, has been energy inflation and inflation from some smaller products. We suffer probably more of this and some supply change disruptions and labor shortages that you probably hear every company talking about.

所以當我們看，如果你願意的話，在等式的消極方面，在積極方面，我們可以控制。不利的一面是，我們將幾種情況放在一起。我想說，在這個時間點上，最大的表現是能源通脹和一些較小產品的通脹。我們可能會遭受更多這種情況以及一些供應變化中斷和勞動力短缺，您可能會聽到每家公司都在談論這些。

I would say from an energy perspective, the impact is probably more on Europe, whether it's on crush or Carb Solutions. That's where we see the impact. And we have our team basically working on energy efficiency and shaving some percentages of that increase and also our hedging mechanisms and all that.

我想說，從能源的角度來看，影響可能更多的是歐洲，無論是粉碎還是碳水化合物解決方案。這就是我們看到影響的地方。我們的團隊主要致力於提高能源效率並削減部分增長，以及我們的對沖機制等等。

On the raw material side and the supply chain disruption, that's probably more the territory of Nutrition. Nutrition, as you can imagine, has more variety of raw materials and more SKUs. So the complexity of that business makes it more exposed to some of these headwinds. So that's the way we're looking at that. It's more the European energy increase and some of the Nutrition one-offs that are here and there on supply chain.

在原材料方面和供應鏈中斷方面，這可能更多的是營養領域。可以想像，營養品的原料種類更多，SKU也更多。因此，該業務的複雜性使其更容易受到其中一些不利因素的影響。這就是我們看待它的方式。更多的是歐洲能源的增加和供應鏈上到處都是一次性的營養。

My second question is -- and I appreciate that. On the China side, I think the last call or the call before, you kind of outlined how the demand is growing. I know 2021 was an extraordinary year for China demand. How do you think that's going to play out in 2022 and 2023 in terms of -- will there be a mix change? Will there be increased demand? How do you kind of think about it relative to your business model? And I appreciate your time as always.

我的第二個問題是——我很感激。在中國方面，我認為上一次電話會議或之前的電話會議，你大概概述了需求是如何增長的。我知道 2021 年對於中國的需求來說是不平凡的一年。你認為這將如何在 2022 年和 2023 年發揮作用——是否會有混合變化？需求會增加嗎？相對於您的商業模式，您如何看待它？我一如既往地感謝你的時間。

Yes. Thank you, Ken. Listen, we think that China has recovered from the ASF. They recovered from ASF. And you saw the dynamics in terms of pork prices coming up and down. We still believe that they will import some -- they will import soybeans in the high 90s, 96, 97 million, give or take and around probably 25 million tons of corn.

是的。謝謝你，肯。聽著，我們認為中國已經從 ASF 中恢復過來。他們從 ASF 中恢復過來。你看到了豬肉價格上下波動的動態。我們仍然相信他們會進口一些——他們將進口 90 年代高點的大豆，96、9700 萬，給予或接受大約 2500 萬噸玉米。

Again, when -- we are watching the way they are managing through COVID challenges, but we expect demand will continue to grow. It continues to be supported by improved diets and professional feeding practices. Even if we see some moderation of GDP, we think that -- we've seen per capita consumption of the top 4 meat basically increases. And even if they corrected a little bit -- they correct versus 2021, they are still much bigger than pre-ASF and pre-pandemic.

同樣，當我們正在觀察他們應對 COVID 挑戰的方式時，但我們預計需求將繼續增長。它繼續得到改進的飲食和專業餵養實踐的支持。即使我們看到國內生產總值有所放緩，我們認為 - 我們已經看到前 4 種肉類的人均消費量基本上增加了。即使他們稍微修正了一點——與 2021 年相比，他們修正了，但它們仍然比 ASF 和大流行前大得多。

So we can fit it with the numbers here or there, but still it's going to be very strong. And as I said, probably 96 million, 97 million of soybeans, 25 million of corn, that will provide a good base for the grain industry and the crushing industry.

所以我們可以用這里或那裡的數字來擬合它，但它仍然會非常強大。正如我所說，可能有 9600 萬、9700 萬大豆、2500 萬玉米，這將為糧食工業和壓榨工業提供良好的基礎。

We now have a question from Ben Kallo from Baird.

我們現在有一個來自 Baird 的 Ben Kallo 的問題。

Ray, you touched on the regulatory environment just in your ethanol comments, but maybe just on a broader level just maybe around renewable diesel, if you guys could talk about that. And then on the legislative front, I hate to ask because it's anyone's best guess, but how you see maybe the blender's tax credit and anything around aviation fuel evolving?

雷，你剛剛在你的乙醇評論中談到了監管環境，但也許只是在更廣泛的層面上，可能只是圍繞可再生柴油，如果你們能談談的話。然後在立法方面，我不想問，因為這是任何人的最佳猜測，但是您如何看待攪拌機的稅收抵免以及與航空燃料有關的任何變化？

Yes. On the biodiesel, as you know, the current blender's credit continues until the end of 2022, December 31, 2022. So we're -- actually, we're looking at what's happening on the legislative agenda in Washington on the BBB program to see whether it gets renewed. But historically, what you've seen is the -- both -- frankly, both parties are supportive of the biodiesel industry. It's important for United States. So even if something doesn't occur on BBB, we're optimistic that the blender's credit will get extended in one way or another through some form of legislation as we kind of move through the year.

是的。如您所知，在生物柴油方面，目前的攪拌機的信譽一直持續到 2022 年底，即 2022 年 12 月 31 日。所以我們 - 實際上，我們正在研究華盛頓 BBB 計劃的立法議程上正在發生的事情看看會不會更新。但從歷史上看，你所看到的是——雙方——坦率地說，雙方都支持生物柴油行業。這對美國很重要。因此，即使 BBB 上沒有發生任何事情，我們也樂觀地認為，隨著我們今年的推進，攪拌機的信用將通過某種形式的立法以一種或另一種方式得到延長。

And if you recall, sometimes it happens after you get through the end of the year and then you have a retroactive biodiesel tax credit, which we've seen in the past. So we actually feel confident that something will occur there in order to kind of continue with the blender's credit on the biodiesel tax credit.

如果你還記得的話，有時它會在你度過年底之後發生，然後你就會有追溯性的生物柴油稅收抵免，我們過去已經看到了。所以我們實際上有信心在那裡會發生一些事情，以便繼續使用攪拌機對生物柴油稅收抵免的抵免。

On the SAF front, as you know, this is something that we're working on right now with different partners. It is going to be an important part of the fuel industry in the future as we go green in terms of aviation fuel. So just based upon frankly, again, the support we see in terms of the direction of SAF, we're optimistic that some form of legislative -- yes, some form of legislative actions to be taken to support the sustainable aviation fuel industry, the SAF industry.

如您所知，在新加坡武裝部隊方面，這是我們目前正在與不同的合作夥伴一起開展的工作。隨著我們在航空燃料方面走向綠色，它將成為未來燃料行業的重要組成部分。因此，再次坦率地說，基於我們在 SAF 方向方面看到的支持，我們樂觀地認為某種形式的立法——是的，採取某種形式的立法行動來支持可持續航空燃料行業， SAF 工業。

And again, it's a nascent industry right now, right? Very few gallons are being produced, but projections show that by 2030, there's going to be a need for about 4 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel in combination of the United States and Europe. So it's a significant growth industry, and probably, there's going to be some level of support required in order to start up this industry here.

再說一次，它現在是一個新興的行業，對吧？生產的加侖燃料很少，但預測顯示，到 2030 年，美國和歐洲將需要約 40 億加侖的可持續航空燃料。所以這是一個顯著增長的行業，可能需要一定程度的支持才能在這裡啟動這個行業。

And just on the -- back to the renewable front, could you just talk about any areas that you're watching? I know we talked about the supply side and how you discount these new production facilities coming online. But can you talk about the demand side and where you're seeing the incremental demand coming from, the regions that we already know out there, new regions?

回到可再生能源前沿，你能談談你正在關注的任何領域嗎？我知道我們討論了供應方面以及您如何對這些新上線的生產設施進行打折。但是你能談談需求方面嗎，你看到增量需求來自哪裡，我們已經知道的地區，新地區？

I mean the demand side is really driven by the different states implementing low-carbon fuel standards, LCFS standards, particularly starting out in the West, but frankly, it's going to get extended across all of the United States and Canada. So the demand side is there, right, as all the states move towards LCFS standards. And frankly, the industry is just simply trying to respond to that demand by building the supply to meet that particular requirement there.

我的意思是需求方實際上是由實施低碳燃料標準、LCFS 標準的不同州推動的，特別是從西方開始，但坦率地說，它將擴展到美國和加拿大的所有地區。所以需求方就在那裡，正確的，因為所有州都朝著 LCFS 標準邁進。坦率地說，該行業只是試圖通過建立供應來滿足那裡的特定需求來響應這種需求。

We now have a question from Steve Byrne from Bank of America.

我們現在有一個來自美國銀行的史蒂夫伯恩的問題。

Do you think that soybean oil will represent the majority of the feedstock for this 5 billion gallons of renewable diesel?

您認為豆油將代表這 50 億加侖可再生柴油的大部分原料嗎？

It's going to represent an important part of it. I mean as demand rolls for renewable green diesel, it's going to require the pull for many sorts of feedstocks. And in fact, it's very likely that even canola oil will find a pathway eventually to become part of a feedstock for renewable green diesel. But we still believe that maybe about 45% of the production will come from soybean oil, eventually a small production out of the canola oil that I referenced here. So it is going to be an important component because there's just insufficient amount of that they used cooking oil and other types of feedstock, fats and renderings. There's just not enough supply in order to kind of meet this growing demand.

它將代表其中的一個重要部分。我的意思是隨著可再生綠色柴油需求的增加，這將需要多種原料的拉動。事實上，即使菜籽油也很有可能最終找到成為可再生綠色柴油原料的一部分。但我們仍然相信，大約 45% 的產量將來自豆油，最終我在這裡提到的菜籽油的小產量。所以它將成為一個重要的組成部分，因為他們使用的食用油和其他類型的原料、脂肪和提煉物的數量不足。只是沒有足夠的供應來滿足這種不斷增長的需求。

Believing your 45% is 30 million acres of incremental soybeans, which I don't think is going to happen, does that mean soybean exports get squeezed out and, instead, it gets crushed, the oil goes into R&D and you export the meal?

相信你的 45% 是 3000 萬英畝的增量大豆，我認為這不會發生，這是否意味著大豆出口被擠出，相反，它被壓碎，油進入研發，你出口豆粕？

We've indicated we believe that a lot of the U.S. soybean oil exports will actually come down. You're correct. I think there's going to be a diversion away from exports to soybean oil. There could also be some diversions away from even food applications. There's going to be a daisy chain effect that goes on, which frankly is actually supportive for the entire vegetable oil complex around the world, right? So I think there is going to be some daisy chain effects that are going on in order to kind of meet this type of demand.

我們已經表示我們相信很多美國豆油出口實際上會下降。你是對的。我認為將會從出口轉向豆油。甚至食品應用也可能有一些轉移。將會產生菊花鏈效應，坦率地說，這實際上是對全球整個植物油綜合體的支持，對吧？所以我認為為了滿足這種需求，將會產生一些菊花鏈效應。

And then what about your Slide 15 where you show forward sales by farmers in South America being below historical averages? Do you attribute that to the uncertainty that they are seeing with their current crop, just from either drought or excessive rain? And if grain and oilseed production is lower there in 2022 or the rest of the world for that matter, is that a net benefit to you in trading?

然後你的幻燈片 15 顯示南美農民的遠期銷售額低於歷史平均水平呢？您是否將其歸因於他們對當前作物的不確定性，無論是乾旱還是過度降雨？如果 2022 年或世界其他地區的糧食和油籽產量下降，這對您的貿易是否有淨收益？

Steve, this is Juan. So what you're seeing from the farmer in South America is reflective of both things: one is the current impact in South America; and the second is, as you see, they are looking at the -- what happened with the size of the crop.

史蒂夫，這是胡安。因此，您從南美農民那裡看到的情況反映了兩件事：一是當前對南美的影響；二是當前對南美的影響。第二個是，如您所見，他們正在研究 - 作物大小發生了什麼。

In terms of whether it's beneficial for ADM or not, our role is to try to fulfill our mission of providing nutrition around the world, and that's where we use our supply chain to make sure that we deliver to our customers and we deliver to the populations around the world. So sometimes, it coincides with margin expansion in some part the business. Sometimes, it may not. We like the fact that there is a strong demand around the world, and that tends to be good for ADM.

就 ADM 是否有益而言，我們的角色是努力履行我們在全球範圍內提供營養的使命，這就是我們使用供應鏈來確保我們向客戶和民眾提供營養的地方世界各地。因此，有時，它與業務的某些部分的利潤率擴張相吻合。有時，它可能不會。我們喜歡全球需求強勁的事實，這往往對 ADM 有利。

We now have our next question from Michael Piken of Cleveland Research.

我們現在有來自 Cleveland Research 的 Michael Piken 的下一個問題。

Just wanted to sort of get your take on kind of the current transportation system and the outlook at the ports. Both at New Orleans, are we fully recovered from the hurricanes and then kind of the barge system? And what's happening over in the ports in China? And what's sort of the backup? And your business -- is this kind of flowing normally? Or how backed up is it?

只是想了解一下當前的交通系統和港口的前景。在新奧爾良，我們是否完全從颶風和駁船系統中恢復過來？中國的港口發生了什麼？什麼是備份？而你的業務——這種流動正常嗎？或者它是如何備份的？

Yes, Michael, good question. Talk about -- let's talk about China. Some slight COVID-related challenges in China are impacting ports. But to be honest, the situation has improved. Initially, we got the highlights. But in general, port situation continues to improve. And maybe we have average waiting about 2, 3 days for bulk cargo in agriculture in most main ports. So I would say China is kind of okay.

是的，邁克爾，好問題。談談——讓我們談談中國。中國的一些與新冠病毒相關的輕微挑戰正在影響港口。但老實說，情況有所改善。最初，我們得到了亮點。但總體而言，港口形勢繼續向好。也許我們在大多數主要港口平均等待大約 2、3 天的農業散裝貨物。所以我會說中國還不錯。

We've seen lineups or the moorage time increasing in Brazil. They're still boats exporting corn and importing fertilizers. And since the soybean crop is a little bit delayed, we're seeing more -- we're seeing waiting times kind of doubled from maybe 15 days to 30 days in Brazil. And that's pushing some volume into North America for maybe March, April deliveries.

我們已經看到巴西的陣容或停泊時間增加了。他們仍然是出口玉米和進口化肥的船。而且由於大豆作物有點延遲，我們看到了更多——我們看到巴西的等待時間從大約 15 天增加到 30 天翻了一番。這推動了一些可能在 3 月、4 月交付的北美市場。

North America export capacity has recovered for the most part. I think there is one plan that was going to have some long-term or medium-term, if you will, repairments. But for the most part, the export capacity has been recovered to pre-Ida level at least for us. And I would say in terms of the river, the Illinois River, there is a lot of freezing, and there is a lot of icy conditions that have slowed down the river movement. And we see that, and that probably will happen -- will continue.

北美出口能力大部分恢復。我認為有一個計劃將有一些長期或中期的，如果你願意的話，修理。但在大多數情況下，至少對我們來說，出口能力已經恢復到 Ida 之前的水平。我想說的是伊利諾伊河的河流，有很多冰凍的地方，有很多結冰的條件減緩了河流的流動。我們看到了這一點，這可能會發生——將繼續下去。

Great. That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up, what's the elevation margin outlook as you guys kind of see it for the year?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後作為後續行動，你們今年看到的海拔邊際前景如何？

We've seen -- as you know, we have the impact of Ida in the Q4. We had the demand, but we didn't have the ability to supply. So a lot of that volume was moved into Q1. And we have seen the elevation margins increasing in Q1, so a little bit as expected. And so we feel good about how to satisfy that demand.

我們已經看到 - 如您所知，我們在第四季度受到 Ida 的影響。我們有需求，但我們沒有能力供應。因此，很多交易量都轉移到了第一季度。我們已經看到第一季度的海拔邊際有所增加，所以有點像預期的那樣。因此，我們對如何滿足這一需求感到滿意。

Our last question comes from Eric of Seaport Research Partners (sic) [Seaport Research Partners].

我們的最後一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners (sic) [Seaport Research Partners] 的 Eric。

Congrats on a great quarter. Great year, everyone. So I know this has kind of been beaten to death, and it's -- obviously, it's very important. So if you -- if again, on the renewable -- if you just take a renewable green diesel market, if you just look at the amount of feedstock that's required to meet to kind of get to that 2025 goal, your goal of 5 billion gallons, it's -- and I think it was alluded to earlier with that 45% comment, it's 30 million acres of increased -- it's the equivalent of 30 million acres of soybean production, which it just isn't going to happen. So -- and I'm sure -- and I know that Greg and Chris are all over this. The -- doesn't this -- if you -- it's got to be -- it is a global market. It will be. Doesn't this just feed right into your -- into a very positive long-term outlook for Ag Services that you're going to have to be able to pull globally a lot of resources in to meet these demand functions, but that's what makes it possible. Is that the way to look at this?

祝賀一個偉大的季度。偉大的一年，大家。所以我知道這有點被打死了，而且——顯然，這非常重要。因此，如果您 - 如果再次在可再生能源方面 - 如果您只是採用可再生綠色柴油市場，如果您只看一下實現 2025 年目標所需的原料量，您的目標是 50 億加侖，這是 - 我認為之前提到過 45% 的評論，增加了 3000 萬英畝 - 這相當於 3000 萬英畝的大豆產量，這不會發生。所以 - 我敢肯定 - 我知道 Greg 和 Chris 都在這方面。 - 這不是 - 如果你 - 它必須是 - 它是一個全球市場。這將是。這不只是直接影響您對農業服務的非常積極的長期前景，您將不得不能夠在全球範圍內吸引大量資源來滿足這些需求功能，但這就是使有可能。是這樣看的嗎？

Yes. I think, Eric, when you have one explosion of demand in one place of the world, resources from around the world will come. And as Ray was saying, maybe we're going to export less. Certainly, we may import more. And there are going to be shifts between the different products. So I would say we continue to be in a world that requires more food and also that requires to help the environment. It has been a structural change in demand for us. And for a company that have assets around the world, that probably means better utilization of those assets and better value of those assets as we try to solve these issues, yes.

是的。我認為，埃里克，當你在世界某個地方出現需求激增時，來自世界各地的資源就會湧來。正如雷所說，也許我們會減少出口。當然，我們可能會進口更多。並且不同產品之間將會發生轉變。所以我想說，我們將繼續生活在一個需要更多食物並且需要幫助保護環境的世界中。對我們來說，這是需求的結構性變化。對於一家在全球擁有資產的公司來說，這可能意味著在我們試圖解決這些問題時更好地利用這些資產並提高這些資產的價值，是的。

Good. And so the final question I have, and a lot of those have been answered already. So when you -- when we look at the current year in terms of U.S. crop production, so what are you hearing from your farmer clients? Obviously, it looks like we're putting a bid in the corn markets today to get more corn production. There's a lot of uncertainty with input costs and all the other stuff. What is your feel for how -- and it's early, but it's not so early any more. It's getting closer to time. What is your feel on how the crop production outlook looks for this year kind of by crop?

好的。所以我有最後一個問題，其中很多已經回答了。所以當你 - 當我們從美國作物產量的角度來看今年時，你從你的農民客戶那裡聽到了什麼？顯然，看起來我們今天正在對玉米市場進行投標，以獲得更多的玉米產量。投入成本和所有其他東西有很多不確定性。你對如何做的感覺是什麼——現在還早，但現在已經不是那麼早了。時間越來越近了。您對今年的作物產量前景有何看法？

Yes. We expect a strong U.S. planting. Of course, some of those decisions, as you said, is getting the time to make those decisions. And a lot of people are looking at the South American weather. South American weather is very strange at the moment. There's very dry conditions in Paraná or the south of Brazil and maybe Argentina. And it was a little bit too wet in the north. Numbers in the north are coming strong in terms of yield for Brazil. I think that the recent rains have stopped the deterioration of the crop in Argentina and the south of Brazil and probably with Paraguay having already felt the damage.

是的。我們預計美國種植面積將強勁。當然，正如您所說，其中一些決定正在花時間做出這些決定。很多人都在關注南美的天氣。目前南美的天氣很奇怪。巴拉那或巴西南部，也許還有阿根廷，天氣非常乾燥。北方有點太濕了。就巴西的單產而言，北部的數字正在強勁增長。我認為最近的降雨已經阻止了阿根廷和巴西南部的收成惡化，而且可能巴拉圭已經感受到了損失。

So we believe in the U.S. We still believe that probably corn will outpace soybeans in terms of acres. So we probably think about, I don't know, something like 93 million acres of corn, 87 million acres of soybean, give or take. And I understand the dynamics about fertilizers and all that. But I think given the prices of last year, I think that the prime land will probably maintain the same mix.

所以我們相信美國。我們仍然相信玉米的種植面積可能會超過大豆。所以我們可能會考慮，我不知道，像 9300 萬英畝玉米，8700 萬英畝大豆，給予或接受。我了解肥料的動態和所有這些。但我認為考慮到去年的價格，我認為黃金地段可能會保持相同的組合。

Yes. No, I would agree with you. Juan, again, congratulations on a great year.

是的。不，我同意你的看法。胡安，再次祝賀這一年的偉大。

Thank you. Thank you, Eric.

謝謝你。謝謝你，埃里克。

I would like to hand it back to Vikram Luthar for some closing remarks.

我想把它交還給 Vikram Luthar 做一些結束語。

Thank you, Brieka. Thank you for joining us today. Slide 13 notes upcoming investor events in which we will be participating. As always, please feel free to follow up with me if you have any other questions.

謝謝你，布里卡。感謝您今天加入我們。幻燈片 13 指出了我們將參與的即將舉行的投資者活動。與往常一樣，如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時與我聯繫。

Have a great day, and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

祝您有美好的一天，感謝您花時間和對 ADM 的興趣。

Thank you, everyone, for joining. That does conclude today's call. You may disconnect your lines, and have a lovely day.

謝謝大家的加入。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。你可以斷開你的線路，並有一個美好的一天。