Archer-Daniels-Midland Co (ADM) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the ADM First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Megan Britt, Vice President, Investor Relations for ADM. Ms. Britt, you may begin.

早上好，歡迎來到 ADM 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，正在錄製此電話會議。現在，我想介紹一下今天電話會議的主持人，ADM 投資者關係副總裁梅根布里特 (Megan Britt)。 Britt 女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Bailey. Hello, and welcome to the first quarter earnings webcast for ADM. Starting tomorrow, a replay of this webcast will be available on our Investor Relations website.

謝謝你，貝利。大家好，歡迎收看 ADM 第一季度收益網絡廣播。從明天開始，我們的投資者關係網站上將提供該網絡廣播的重播。

Please turn to Slide 2. Some of our comments and materials may constitute forward-looking statements that reflect management's current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions, company performance and financial results. These statements and materials are based on many assumptions and factors that are subject to risks and uncertainties. ADM has provided additional information in its reports on file with the SEC, concerning assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in this presentation.

請轉到幻燈片 2。我們的一些評論和材料可能構成前瞻性陳述，反映管理層當前的觀點和對未來經濟狀況、行業狀況、公司業績和財務結果的估計。這些陳述和材料基於許多受風險和不確定因素影響的假設和因素。 ADM 在其提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中提供了更多信息，涉及可能導致實際結果與本演示文稿中的結果大不相同的假設和因素。

To the extent permitted under applicable law, ADM assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, as a result of new information or future events. On today's webcast, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Juan Luciano, will discuss our first quarter results, provide ADM's perspective on the current market backdrop and share progress highlights on our strategic priorities for the year. Our Chief Financial Officer, Vikram Luthar, will review the drivers of our financial performance at the segment level and review our cash generation and capital allocation results. Juan will have some closing remarks, and then he and Vikram will take your questions.

在適用法律允許的範圍內，ADM 不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。在今天的網絡廣播中，我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Juan Luciano 將討論我們的第一季度業績，提供 ADM 對當前市場背景的看法，並分享我們今年戰略重點的進展重點。我們的首席財務官 Vikram Luthar 將審查部門層面財務業績的驅動因素，並審查我們的現金生成和資本配置結果。 Juan 將發表一些結束語，然後他和 Vikram 將回答您的問題。

Please turn to Slide 3. I'll now turn the call over to Juan.

請轉到幻燈片 3。我現在將電話轉給 Juan。

Thank you, Megan, and thanks to all those joining us for the call today. This morning, ADM reported strong first quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.09, with an adjusted segment operating profit of $1.7 billion and a trailing 4-quarter average adjusted ROIC of 14%. Our performance demonstrates once again, the advantage of ADM's uniquely integrated value chain and broad portfolio. Along with the team's ability to respond nimbly to opportunities aligned to the 3 enduring trends of food security, health and well-being and sustainability.

謝謝你，梅根，也感謝今天加入我們的所有人。今天上午，ADM 公佈了強勁的第一季度調整後每股收益 2.09 美元，調整後的分部營業利潤為 17 億美元，過去 4 季度平均調整後 ROIC 為 14%。我們的表現再次證明了 ADM 獨特的集成價值鍊和廣泛產品組合的優勢。以及團隊靈活應對與糧食安全、健康和福祉以及可持續性這 3 個持久趨勢相一致的機會的能力。

All of this was achieved in a fluid economic environment, where repeal effects are being felt from both inflationary and recessionary pressures. Shifts in global demand and trade activity and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Our team continues to find ways to rise above these challenges and meet our customers' needs for consistency, quality and innovation at every turn, across our business units. We have wrapped up Q1 with a strong balance sheet, healthy cash flows, and we are on track for our 2023 and long-term strategic growth plans, and we continue to pursue growth opportunities and increase shareholder returns, in alignment with our disciplined capital allocation framework.

所有這一切都是在一個流動的經濟環境中實現的，在這個環境中，通貨膨脹和衰退的壓力都感受到了廢除的影響。全球需求和貿易活動的變化以及烏克蘭持續的戰爭。我們的團隊不斷尋找方法來克服這些挑戰，並在我們的業務部門的每一個轉折點上滿足客戶對一致性、質量和創新的需求。我們以強勁的資產負債表和健康的現金流結束了第一季度，我們正在按計劃執行 2023 年和長期戰略增長計劃，我們將繼續尋求增長機會並增加股東回報，這與我們嚴格的資本配置保持一致框架。

This quarter, we also announced several exciting milestones in our continued growth and innovation strategy, including the opening of the world's first probiotic and postbiotics production facility in Valencia, Spain, which increases our global production capacity by a factor of 5. Agreements with ADM ventures partners, Brightseed and Believer meats to advance innovations in gut microbiome and cell-based meat respectively. And our definitive agreement with Tallgrass to pave the way for carbon capture from ADM's Columbus, Nebraska Complex furthering our decarbonization agenda.

本季度，我們還宣布了我們持續增長和創新戰略的幾個激動人心的里程碑，包括在西班牙瓦倫西亞開設世界上第一家益生菌和益生菌生產設施，這使我們的全球產能提高了 5 倍。與 ADM 企業達成的協議合作夥伴 Brightseed 和 Believer meats 分別推動腸道微生物組和細胞肉類的創新。我們與 Tallgrass 達成最終協議，為 ADM 內布拉斯加州哥倫布綜合設施的碳捕獲鋪平道路，進一步推進我們的脫碳議程。

Beyond the financial highlights of the quarter, we are proud to be named one of Fortune's most admired companies for the 15th year running. And to receive our fourth consecutive Ethisphere award, as one of the world's most ethical companies. It's an honor to be recognized externally and it continues to demonstrate that ADM's culture and people are the engine behind our operational and financial success.

除了本季度的財務亮點外，我們很自豪能夠連續 15 年被評為《財富》雜誌最受尊敬的公司之一。並連續第四次獲得 Ethisphere 獎，成為世界上最具商業道德的公司之一。能夠獲得外部認可是一種榮幸，它繼續證明 ADM 的文化和人員是我們運營和財務成功背後的引擎。

As we look back on the quarter, I'd like to review it in the context of the 2023 framing we discussed in Q4's call, and provide a few brief updates. Slide 4, please.

當我們回顧本季度時，我想在我們在第四季度電話會議中討論的 2023 年框架的背景下對其進行回顧，並提供一些簡短的更新。請放幻燈片 4。

In January, we reviewed several factors that underpinned our confident outlook for 2023, and these same factors will continue to shape our performance throughout the year. The supply and demand situation remains fundamentally solid with some normalization of supply, alongside shift in both the products driving demand and the origins providing supply. Supply and transportation constraints in the Black Sea region, severe drought in Argentina, the record Brazilian crop and a resurgence of demand in China post lockdown have allowed our team to take full advantage of our global footprint. Broad-based food demand remains resilient across key geographies. And we did, we are seeing solid volumes and strong operating margins across vegetable oils, flavors, sweeteners, starches and with milling. Demand for biodiesel and renewable green diesel is robust, driving continued strong growth crush margins. The strong biofuels demand and continued expectation for growth supports our investment in new crush capacity like the additional 150,000 bushels per day from our Spiritwood, North Dakota facility scheduled to come online in time for the 2023 harvest.

一月份，我們回顧了支持我們對 2023 年充滿信心的展望的幾個因素，這些因素將繼續影響我們全年的業績。供需形勢從根本上保持穩固，供應在一定程度上正常化，同時推動需求的產品和提供供應的產地都發生了變化。黑海地區的供應和運輸限制、阿根廷的嚴重干旱、創紀錄的巴西收成以及封鎖後中國的需求復蘇，使我們的團隊能夠充分利用我們的全球足跡。主要地區的廣泛食品需求仍然具有彈性。我們做到了，我們看到植物油、香料、甜味劑、澱粉和碾磨的銷量穩固，營業利潤率高。對生物柴油和可再生綠色柴油的需求強勁，推動壓榨利潤持續強勁增長。強勁的生物燃料需求和對增長的持續預期支持我們對新壓榨產能的投資，例如我們位於北達科他州 Spiritwood 的工廠每天額外生產 150,000 蒲式耳，計劃在 2023 年收穫時及時上線。

Nutrition's growth trajectory for the year remains on course with a double-digit increase in our human Nutrition pipeline compared to this point in 2022. As noted, we expect this growth to be significantly weighted to the back half of the year, as we manage through some destocking impacts in beverage, lower margins in amino acids and the broader demand fulfillment challenges, we discussed in the last quarter.

與 2022 年此時相比，我們的人類營養管道今年的營養增長軌跡保持兩位數增長。如前所述，我們預計這一增長將在今年下半年顯著增加，因為我們設法通過我們在上個季度討論了飲料的一些去庫存影響、氨基酸的利潤率下降以及更廣泛的需求滿足挑戰。

It's important to recognize that our team delivered strong Q1 results, despite constantly evolving macroeconomic conditions. ADM's ability to remain agile and apply the principles of productivity and innovation continues to position us well, in a dynamic external environment. Let me take a moment to dig deeper into examples of how we are applying our productivity playbook across the organization, and how decarbonization is helping us find paths for both innovation and growth.

重要的是要認識到，儘管宏觀經濟條件不斷變化，但我們的團隊在第一季度取得了強勁的業績。 ADM 保持敏捷並應用生產力和創新原則的能力繼續使我們在動態的外部環境中處於有利地位。讓我花點時間深入探討一下我們如何在整個組織中應用我們的生產力手冊的例子，以及脫碳如何幫助我們找到創新和增長的途徑。

Slide 5, please. From a productivity perspective, we have continued to focus attention on automation within many of our key operations facilities. Automation not only accelerates the modernization of our manufacturing footprint is helping us deliver significant savings at the enterprise level. Whether we are reducing chemicals usage, delivering yield improvements or supporting operational reliability, our automation program now has a plan to scale cost improvements across our most critical operational assets, over the next several years. 8 of our plans are currently underway, and we expect that most of these will complete their automation implementation by year-end. And we are seeing operational and financial impacts immediately following implementation.

請放幻燈片 5。從生產力的角度來看，我們繼續關注許多關鍵運營設施的自動化。自動化不僅加速了我們製造足蹟的現代化，還幫助我們在企業層面實現了顯著的節省。無論我們是要減少化學品的使用、提高產量還是支持運營可靠性，我們的自動化計劃現在都計劃在未來幾年內在我們最關鍵的運營資產中擴大成本改進。我們的 8 個計劃目前正在進行中，我們預計其中大部分將在年底前完成自動化實施。我們在實施後立即看到了運營和財務影響。

Our most recent implementation Cedar Rapids is already generating millions of dollars in efficiencies in just the first few months, confirming the double-digit returns, we expect to see from these proceeds. As a whole, the impact on operating profit is significant with a target run rate of approximately $200 million per year, when implementations are complete at more than 70 facilities over the next 7 years. This is only one example of productivity measures we are undertaking to ensure ADM maintains agility given the levels of uncertainty in the external environment. Each of our businesses and functions is identifying opportunities to drive efficiency at the scale, while maintaining a focus on growth.

我們最近實施的 Cedar Rapids 已經在最初幾個月內產生了數百萬美元的效率，確認了兩位數的回報，我們希望從這些收益中看到。總體而言，在未來 7 年內在 70 多個設施完成實施後，對營業利潤的影響是巨大的，目標運行率約為每年 2 億美元。這只是我們為確保 ADM 在外部環境的不確定性水平下保持敏捷性而採取的生產力措施的一個例子。我們的每個業務和職能部門都在尋找機會來大規模提高效率，同時保持對增長的關注。

Our decarbonization journey continues to move at a rapid pace and is allowing us to showcase innovation in action. Our advantaged position in alternative fuels production has prepared us for the demand cycle that continues to rise across biodiesel and renewable diesel. We continue to explore strategic options to convert ethanol into sustainable aviation fuel. The multibillion dollar addressable opportunity represented by SAF alone, highlights the criticality of access to low-carbon feedstocks at a scale exponentially higher than what it is available today. This is why we are prioritizing the decarbonization of our Decatur complex, as the first critical step in unlocking significant value.

我們的脫碳之旅繼續快速推進，使我們能夠展示行動中的創新。我們在替代燃料生產方面的優勢地位使我們為生物柴油和可再生柴油持續增長的需求週期做好了準備。我們繼續探索將乙醇轉化為可持續航空燃料的戰略選擇。僅 SAF 就代表了數十億美元的可尋址機會，突顯了以比目前可用的指數更高的規模獲取低碳原料的重要性。這就是為什麼我們優先考慮迪凱特綜合設施的脫碳，這是釋放重要價值的第一個關鍵步驟。

Last year, we announced one of the world's first, ultra-low emissions power plants would be built adjacent to our Decatur processing complex, supplying ADM with low emissions steam and electricity. This leverages our world-class facility that has been successfully sequestered in CO2 for more than a decade. ADM is a pioneering carbon capture and sequestration, and we are extending that expertise with a plan to triple the number of CCS wells in the Decatur area and sequester up to 7 million metric tons of CO2 per year. This positions ADM as a clear leader in the ability to supply customers with low-carbon feedstocks and accelerate the decarbonization of their own value chain. And we think, this is just the beginning. I'll speak more about how we are defining that next phase, as we wrap up.

去年，我們宣布將在迪凱特加工廠附近建造世界上第一座超低排放發電廠，為 ADM 提供低排放蒸汽和電力。這充分利用了我們世界一流的設施，該設施已成功封存在二氧化碳中十多年。 ADM 是一家開創性的碳捕獲和封存公司，我們正在擴展這一專業知識，計劃將迪凱特地區的 CCS 井數量增加兩倍，每年封存多達 700 萬噸二氧化碳。這使 ADM 成為能夠為客戶提供低碳原料並加速其自身價值鏈脫碳的明顯領導者。我們認為，這僅僅是個開始。在我們結束時，我將更多地談論我們如何定義下一階段。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Vikram to talk about our business performance. Vikram?

現在我想把電話轉給 Vikram 來談談我們的業務表現。維克拉姆？

Thank you, Juan. Please turn to Slide 6. The Ag Services and Oilseeds team had an outstanding start to 2023 with significantly higher year-over-year results in Q1. Ag Services results were much higher than the first quarter of 2022. In South American origination, excellent risk management and higher export demand due to the record Brazilian soybean crop drove significantly higher year-over-year results. In North America, origination results were also higher. Driven by stronger soybean exports. In global trade, solid margins and efficient execution led to strong results. Crushing results were in line with the first quarter last year.

謝謝你，胡安。請轉到幻燈片 6。農業服務和油籽團隊在 2023 年開局出色，第一季度的同比業績顯著提高。農業服務業績遠高於 2022 年第一季度。在南美原產地，出色的風險管理和巴西大豆收成創紀錄帶來的更高出口需求推動業績同比大幅增長。在北美，原創結果也更高。受大豆出口走強帶動。在全球貿易中，穩固的利潤和高效的執行帶來了強勁的業績。壓榨結果與去年第一季度一致。

In North America, the team executed well, capitalizing on historically strong soybean and softseed crush margins that were supported by robust demand for renewable fuels. In EMEA, crush margins were lower year-over-year, as trade flows adjusted from the dislocations caused last year by the war in Ukraine. Additionally, there were approximately $240 million of positive timing effects during the quarter, which included both expected reversals of prior timing losses, as we executed the business as well as a positive impact of about $100 million pulled forward from future periods, as crush margins declined at the end of the quarter. Refined Products and Other results were substantially higher than the prior year period.

在北美，該團隊表現良好，利用了歷史上強勁的大豆和軟籽壓榨利潤率，而這些利潤率受到對可再生燃料的強勁需求的支持。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，壓榨利潤率同比下降，原因是貿易流量因去年烏克蘭戰爭造成的混亂而有所調整。此外，本季度有大約 2.4 億美元的積極時間效應，其中既包括我們執行業務時預期的先前時間損失的逆轉，也包括由於壓榨利潤率下降而從未來期間提前產生的約 1 億美元的積極影響在本季度末。精煉產品和其他結果大大高於上年同期。

North America biodiesel results were higher with record volumes and strong margins, supported by favorable blend economics and tight diesel stocks. In EMEA, domestic demand for food, oil and export demand for biodiesel drove strong margins. Equity earnings from Wilmar were lower versus the first quarter of 2022. Looking ahead for the second quarter, we expect RPO to continue its strong performance. Crushing is expected to be strong, but lower than the prior year based on current crush margins. We do not expect last year's significant volatility that impacted energy and grain trade flows to reoccur in Ag Services.

在有利的混合經濟和緊俏的柴油庫存的支持下，北美生物柴油的業績更高，銷量創歷史新高，利潤率也更高。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，國內對食品、石油的需求以及對生物柴油的出口需求推動了強勁的利潤率。豐益國際的股票收益低於 2022 年第一季度。展望第二季度，我們預計 RPO 將繼續保持強勁表現。壓榨量預計強勁，但根據目前的壓榨利潤率低於上年。我們預計去年影響能源和穀物貿易流量的大幅波動不會在農業服務業再次發生。

Slide 7, please. Carbohydrate Solutions delivered solid results in Q1, though lower than the very strong first quarter of the prior year. The Starches and Sweeteners subsegment capitalized on solid demand in the quarter. North America Starches and Sweeteners delivered strong volumes and margins. Ethanol margins pressured by high industry stock levels were down relative to the same quarter last year. In EMEA, the team effectively managed margins in a dynamic operating environment to deliver improved results. The global wheat milling business posted much higher margins driven by robust customer demand. BioSolutions continued on its strong growth trajectory with revenues increasing by over 20% year-over-year. Vantage Corn Processors results were significantly lower due to weaker ethanol margins.

請播放幻燈片 7。 Carbohydrate Solutions 在第一季度取得了可觀的業績，儘管低於去年第一季度非常強勁的業績。澱粉和甜味劑細分市場利用了本季度的強勁需求。北美澱粉和甜味劑業務實現了強勁的銷量和利潤率。受高行業庫存水平壓力，乙醇利潤率與去年同期相比有所下降。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，該團隊在動態運營環境中有效地管理利潤以提供更好的結果。在強勁的客戶需求推動下，全球小麥加工業務的利潤率要高得多。 BioSolutions 繼續保持強勁的增長軌跡，收入同比增長超過 20%。由於乙醇利潤率較低，Vantage Corn Processors 的業績顯著下降。

Looking ahead for the second quarter, we expect resilient demand and strong margins for our Starches and Sweeteners products. Ethanol margins, while improving, are expected to remain below last year. Of note, we also recognized a $50 million benefit from a biofuel producer tax credit in the prior year quarter. That will not repeat.

展望第二季度，我們預計我們的澱粉和甜味劑產品的需求將保持彈性，利潤率將保持強勁。乙醇利潤雖然有所改善，但預計仍將低於去年。值得注意的是，我們還從上一季度的生物燃料生產商稅收抵免中獲得了 5000 萬美元的收益。那將不再重複。

On Slide 8, Nutrition results were significantly lower year-over-year versus the record prior year quarter. Human Nutrition results were in line with the first quarter of 2022, as the business continued to manage demand fulfillment challenges and destocking in certain categories. Flavors results were slightly lower than the prior year as strong results in EMEA were offset by lower results in North America. Specialty Ingredients results were higher year-over-year, driven by healthy margins. Health and Wellness was lower year-over-year. In Animal Nutrition, results were significantly lower compared to the same quarter last year, primarily due to much lower margins on amino acids.

在幻燈片 8 中，與去年同期的創紀錄水平相比，營養結果同比顯著下降。 Human Nutrition 結果與 2022 年第一季度一致，因為該業務繼續應對需求滿足挑戰和某些類別的去庫存。由於 EMEA 的強勁業績被北美較低的業績所抵消，食用香精的業績略低於上一年。在健康的利潤率的推動下，特種成分的業績同比增長。 Health and Wellness 同比下降。在動物營養方面，結果明顯低於去年同期，這主要是由於氨基酸的利潤率低得多。

The Animal Nutrition business, excluding Pet, is expected to face challenging demand conditions over the course of the year, and we are taking actions to mitigate the impact. These actions include targeted cost reductions, refining our go-to-market strategy with a more customer-centric approach, optimizing our production footprint, particularly in EMEA and refocusing resources on our strongest growth categories.

動物營養業務（不包括寵物）預計在今年將面臨充滿挑戰的需求狀況，我們正在採取行動減輕影響。這些行動包括有針對性地降低成本、通過更加以客戶為中心的方法改進我們的上市戰略、優化我們的生產足跡，特別是在 EMEA 以及將資源重新集中在我們最強勁的增長類別上。

Looking ahead for the second quarter, we expect year-over-year profit growth at Human Nutrition while Animal Nutrition will still be lapping the higher amino acid margins from the prior year. For the full year, we expect to achieve 10% plus constant currency operating profit growth in Nutrition, led by Human Nutrition. And with continued recovery in demand fulfillment and reduced destocking effects, we remain optimistic about our Human Nutrition sales pipeline and growth opportunities. As we noted before, operating profit growth will be heavily weighted to the second half of the year.

展望第二季度，我們預計 Human Nutrition 的利潤將同比增長，而 Animal Nutrition 的氨基酸利潤率仍將高於上一年。全年，我們預計在 Human Nutrition 的帶領下，營養業務實現 10% 以上的固定貨幣營業利潤增長。隨著需求滿足的持續復甦和去庫存效應的減弱，我們對我們的人類營養品銷售渠道和增長機會保持樂觀。正如我們之前指出的那樣，營業利潤增長將主要集中在下半年。

Slide 9, please. Other Business results were significantly higher than the prior year quarter due to improved ADM investor services earnings on higher interest income. Captive insurance results were in line with the prior year. In Corporate, unallocated corporate costs of $248 million were higher year-over-year, due primarily to higher financing and centers of excellence costs. Other corporate was unfavorable versus the prior year due to the absence of an ADM Ventures, investment revaluation gain, partially offset by higher contribution from foreign currency hedges. We still project corporate costs to be approximately $1.5 billion for the year.

請播放幻燈片 9。其他業務業績顯著高於去年同期，原因是利息收入增加導致 ADM 投資者服務收益有所改善。專屬保險業績與上一年持平。在公司方面，未分配的公司成本為 2.48 億美元，同比增加，這主要是由於更高的融資和卓越中心成本。由於沒有 ADM Ventures、投資重估收益，其他企業與上一年相比不利，部分被外匯對沖的貢獻增加所抵消。我們仍然預計今年的企業成本約為 15 億美元。

Net interest expense for the quarter increased $27 million year-over-year due primarily to higher short-term interest rates. The effective tax rate for the first quarter of 2023 was approximately 16%, in line with the prior year. For the full year, we still expect our effective tax rate to be between 16% and 19%.

本季度淨利息支出同比增加 2700 萬美元，主要原因是短期利率上升。 2023 年第一季度的有效稅率約為 16%，與上年持平。對於全年，我們仍預計我們的有效稅率將在 16% 至 19% 之間。

Next slide, please. In the first quarter, we had strong operating cash flows before working capital of $1.3 billion. We allocated $325 million to capital expenditures, as well as returned $600 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. We continue to have ample liquidity with nearly $10 billion of cash and available credit. And our adjusted net debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio of 1.2x is well below our 2.5x threshold. Our strong balance sheet and single A credit rating provide a stable financial footing for ADM to pursue our strategic growth initiatives, while also returning capital to shareholders.

請換下一張幻燈片。第一季度，我們在 13 億美元的營運資金之前擁有強勁的運營現金流。我們分配了 3.25 億美元用於資本支出，並通過股票回購和派息向股東返還了 6 億美元。我們繼續擁有充足的流動資金，擁有近 100 億美元的現金和可用信貸。我們調整後的淨債務與 EBITDA 槓桿比率為 1.2 倍，遠低於我們 2.5 倍的門檻。我們強大的資產負債表和單一 A 信用評級為 ADM 實施我們的戰略增長計劃提供了穩定的財務基礎，同時也為股東返還資本。

In 2023, we still anticipate $1.3 billion of capital expenditures and $1 billion of opportunistic buybacks subject to other strategic uses of capital. Juan?

到 2023 年，我們仍預計 13 億美元的資本支出和 10 億美元的機會主義回購取決於其他戰略資本用途。娟？

Thank you, Vikram. Before we wrap up today, I wanted to share some insights into how we're thinking about the remainder of 2023, and how we are positioning the company to take on the next phase of opportunities. We are confident that ADM will be able to deliver on our plans for 2023, despite some pockets of soft demand. Supply and demand shifts are allowing ADM to flex our integrated value chain in support of another strong year of results. We continue to advance partnership agreements with major players across multiple industries. From regenerative agriculture to alternative proteins, to sustainable fuels, to plant-based industrial and personal care products.

謝謝你，維克拉姆。在今天結束之前，我想分享一些見解，了解我們如何看待 2023 年剩餘時間，以及我們如何定位公司以迎接下一階段的機遇。儘管需求疲軟，但我們相信 ADM 將能夠實現我們 2023 年的計劃。供需變化使 ADM 能夠靈活調整我們的綜合價值鏈，以支持又一個強勁的業績年度。我們繼續推進與多個行業的主要參與者的合作協議。從再生農業到替代蛋白質，再到可持續燃料，再到植物性工業和個人護理產品。

All of these partnerships are supporting ADM, as we evolve at pace with the external environment to capture new growth opportunities. We see accelerated upside emerging from product areas like biosolutions, expected to grow at double-digit rates, again this year. We have significant production capacity coming online within the year across our 3 businesses to support continued demand growth. And we're driving forward the broad-based decarbonization agenda in our Decatur complex which is unlocking both near-term and long-range value for our customers across multiple industries.

所有這些合作夥伴關係都支持 ADM，因為我們與外部環境同步發展以抓住新的增長機會。我們看到生物解決方案等產品領域出現加速增長，預計今年將再次以兩位數的速度增長。我們的 3 項業務在年內都有大量產能上線，以支持持續的需求增長。我們正在迪凱特綜合設施中推動基礎廣泛的脫碳議程，這正在為我們多個行業的客戶釋放近期和長期價值。

With the combination of solid business performance in the core business, along with the strong growth opportunities across our value chain. We expect that we will be able to deliver between $6 to $7 in earnings per share in 2023. And based on the strength of our balance sheet and cash position, we continue to pursue opportunities to deliver both near-term value to shareholders while positioning ADM for its next phase of growth. We're anticipating an in-depth review of the opportunities we see, and the path ahead with the investment community in the fourth quarter. We'll share more details on this event in the coming months.

憑藉核心業務穩健的經營業績，以及我們整個價值鏈的強勁增長機會。我們預計我們將能夠在 2023 年實現 6 至 7 美元的每股收益。根據我們資產負債表和現金狀況的實力，我們將繼續尋求機會為股東提供近期價值，同時定位 ADM為其下一階段的增長。我們期待在第四季度對我們看到的機會以及投資界的前進道路進行深入審查。我們將在未來幾個月內分享有關此活動的更多詳細信息。

Thank you for your time today. Vikram and I, look forward to answering any questions you may have. With that, Bailey, please open the line for questions.

謝謝你今天的時間。 Vikram 和我期待著回答您的任何問題。那麼，貝利，請打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from the line of Tom Palmer from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tom Palmer。

Maybe ask how you're thinking about earnings cadence this year in the Crushing subsegment. So your earnings presentation notes soybean crush margins have dipped lately, in several regions of the world. But we also can see, right, the U.S. futures curve points to stronger margins in the second half of the year. So, maybe just should we be looking at the second quarter coming in below the first quarter and then a potential balance for the second half of the year? Or is the second quarter perhaps looking a bit better for you than industry curves might suggest?

也許會問您如何看待今年破碎細分市場的盈利節奏。因此，您的收益報告指出，最近世界多個地區的大豆壓榨利潤率有所下降。但我們也可以看到，美國期貨曲線指向今年下半年更高的利潤率。那麼，也許我們應該看看第二季度低於第一季度，然後是下半年的潛在平衡？或者第二季度對您來說可能比行業曲線所暗示的要好一些？

I think you're right in your assessment that maybe second quarter will come a little bit lower and then crush margins will rise for the second part of the year. In the coming quarter, crush is expected to remain strong but lower than the prior year period. As you said, based on current crush margins as well as impact from mark-to-market that pull profits into Q1, remember those 100 million that Vikram mentioned before. So margins will remain solid, but again, lower probably than the prior year, while canola crush margins look to be improved in the upside.

我認為您的評估是正確的，即第二季度可能會略低一些，然後壓榨利潤率將在今年下半年上升。下一季度，壓榨量預計將保持強勁，但低於去年同期。正如您所說，根據當前的壓榨利潤率以及將利潤拉入第一季度的按市值計價的影響，請記住 Vikram 之前提到的那 1 億。因此，利潤率將保持穩健，但可能再次低於上年，而油菜籽壓榨利潤率有望提高。

If you think about the whole year, crush is positioned for another extremely strong year in 2023. The fundamentals of the business remain strong and the structural changes are driving increased demand for both vegetable oil and meal. In 2022, remember, Tom, we had significant dislocations around the world. Likewise, 2023 will be influenced by any new dislocations which may or may not happen. Remember that, while Argentina and South America is Crushing hard now, Argentina will probably run out of beans, given their small crop later in the year. And at that point in time, certainly, the market will have to cover for that lack of meal being exported from Argentina. We think that's where the U.S. crush margins will pick up, and that's what the curves are showing.

縱觀全年，2023 年壓榨業將迎來又一個極其強勁的一年。該行業的基本面依然強勁，結構性變化正在推動對植物油和豆粕的需求增加。湯姆，請記住，在 2022 年，我們在世界各地發生了重大混亂。同樣，2023 年將受到可能會或可能不會發生的任何新錯位的影響。請記住，雖然阿根廷和南美洲現在正在艱難收成，但鑑於今年晚些時候的收成不佳，阿根廷可能會用完豆子。當然，到那個時候，市場將不得不彌補阿根廷豆粕出口的不足。我們認為這就是美國壓榨利潤率將回升的地方，這就是曲線所顯示的。

So, I think, with record world soybean production, we expect soybean meal will gain in the inclusions in global feed Russians. And we're going to have also on our own side, we're going to have Spiritwood coming in at the end of Q3. And also, we're going to have Paraguay coming back online at that point and Ukraine also. So when you think about these operational improvements and higher refining volumes and strong refining margins, we are due for a very, very strong year in [Axises] and [Hoses] in 2023.

因此，我認為，隨著世界大豆產量創歷史新高，我們預計豆粕將在全球飼料俄羅斯中得到體現。我們也將在我們自己這邊，我們將在第三季度末加入 Spiritwood。此外，屆時我們將讓巴拉圭和烏克蘭重新上線。因此，當您考慮這些運營改進、更高的煉油量和強勁的煉油利潤率時，我們將在 2023 年 [Axises] 和 [Hoses] 迎來非常非常強勁的一年。

Bailey any other question? Hello?

貝利 還有其他問題嗎？你好？

The next question today comes from the line of Adam Samuelson from Goldman Sachs.

今天的下一個問題來自高盛的 Adam Samuelson。

I was hoping to talk a little bit more on Nutrition and maybe get a little bit more color on kind of the confidence of the recovery in profits, as you see it through the year. It sounds like that's pretty heavily skewed towards the human side. And I guess, I'm just trying to make sure I understand kind of how much of that is a function of the comps getting easy and lapping some of the price cost and supply chain challenges late last year, actual end market growth, benefits from some of the new capacity and the volume that you can bring to bear? And then, help -- as well help us think about on the animal side, kind of the growth in Pet versus the pressures you're seeing on amino acids and some of the legacy Neovia businesses?

我希望多談一點營養問題，也許可以對利潤復甦的信心有更多的了解，正如你在這一年中所看到的那樣。聽起來這嚴重偏向於人性化的一面。而且我想，我只是想確保我了解其中有多少是 comps 變得容易的功能，並在去年年底解決了一些價格成本和供應鏈挑戰，實際終端市場增長，受益於您可以承受的一些新容量和容量？然後，幫助 - 以及幫助我們考慮動物方面，寵物的增長與你在氨基酸和一些傳統 Neovia 業務上看到的壓力？

Yes, Adam. So this is no different from what we signaled in the Q4 call. We had clearly indicated that the first half for Nutrition is going to be weak, and the strength is going to come in the second half. So let's break it down. In Human Nutrition, as we mentioned, we've got a strong pipeline. And actually, customers are looking for more and more innovation, and that plays to our strengths given our broad capabilities and our suite of ingredients. So we see a very robust pipeline, double-digit increase in pipeline and increasing win rates. So that's point number one.

是的，亞當。所以這與我們在第四季度電話會議中發出的信號沒有什麼不同。我們已經明確表示，上半場營養弱，下半場強。因此，讓我們分解一下。正如我們所提到的，在人類營養領域，我們擁有強大的渠道。事實上，客戶正在尋求越來越多的創新，而鑑於我們廣泛的能力和我們的成分套件，這將發揮我們的優勢。因此，我們看到了一個非常強大的管道，管道中有兩位數的增長和不斷增加的贏率。所以這是第一點。

Point number two is the destocking effects should neutralize. We expect inventory levels to come back to regular levels. And then, third is also you relate the demand fulfillment challenges, which we experienced mainly in the back half of last year, we are working through that. We need to expect most of these issues to be resolved in the second half of this year. So a combination of a very strong pipeline, less destocking, as well as less demand fulfillment challenges gives us confidence for back half-loaded growth in Human Nutrition. We will still have growth in the second quarter. We expect maybe mid-single-digit growth in the second quarter.

第二點是去庫存效應應該會抵消。我們預計庫存水平將恢復到正常水平。然後，第三個也是與需求滿足挑戰相關的問題，我們主要在去年下半年經歷了這些挑戰，我們正在努力解決這個問題。我們需要期待這些問題中的大部分在今年下半年得到解決。因此，非常強大的渠道、更少的去庫存以及更少的需求滿足挑戰相結合，使我們對人類營養的半負荷增長充滿信心。我們在第二季度仍將有增長。我們預計第二季度可能實現中個位數增長。

So you can see the progress, roughly flat in Q1, mid-single-digit growth in Q2 and the back half should be significantly higher versus the back half of last year, which was challenged by demand fulfillment. Then, on Animal Nutrition, on the Pet side, we still have double-digit growth in pipeline. So we see that category continue to be strong. If you remember, we signaled demand fulfillment challenges also in Pet. We expect also that to be addressed over the course of this year, mainly in the second half. We're expecting some new capacity also to come online in the second half for Pet. So we feel pretty good about Pet.

所以你可以看到進展，第一季度大致持平，第二季度中等個位數增長，下半年應該明顯高於去年下半年，去年下半年受到需求滿足的挑戰。然後，在動物營養方面，在寵物方面，我們仍有兩位數的增長。所以我們看到該類別繼續保持強勁。如果您還記得的話，我們也在 Pet 中發出了需求滿足挑戰的信號。我們還希望在今年解決這個問題，主要是在下半年。我們預計 Pet 的一些新容量也將在下半年上線。所以我們對 Pet 感覺很好。

On the Animal Nutrition side, that's been challenged because we had significant contribution from amino acids in Q1, Q2 and also Q3 of last year. So we are lapping those margins. So it's going to take time, and that's why, it's going to be back half loaded. We also see weakness generally in feed demand, as feed customers are looking at reformulation and consumers are going from higher-value protein to lower-value protein. But we are taking actions. While volume is anticipated to be flat to slightly lower, we are working to improve margins by very, very targeted cost actions, and as well as go-to-market actions that I referenced.

在動物營養方面，這受到了挑戰，因為我們在去年第一季度、第二季度和第三季度的氨基酸做出了重大貢獻。所以我們正在研磨這些利潤。所以這需要時間，這就是為什麼，它會半載。我們還看到飼料需求普遍疲軟，因為飼料客戶正在考慮重新配方，消費者正在從高價值蛋白質轉向低價值蛋白質。但我們正在採取行動。雖然預計銷量將持平或略有下降，但我們正在努力通過非常非常有針對性的成本行動以及我提到的上市行動來提高利潤率。

So, we feel good about the back half on Animal Nutrition from a turnaround perspective. So that's the reason why Nutrition is shaping up to be a second half story for the reasons I cited, but we feel strong and good about the 10% plus constant currency OP growth in Nutrition for 2023.

因此，從周轉的角度來看，我們對動物營養的後半部分感覺良好。因此，這就是為什麼出於我引用的原因，營養將成為下半場故事的原因，但我們對 2023 年營養 10% 以上的恆定貨幣 OP 增長感到強烈和滿意。

The next question today comes from the line of Ben Theurer from Barclays.

今天的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ben Theurer。

Perfect. Vikram, Juan Congress on the results. So my question is just coming back a little bit to the Ag Service and oilseeds business. And I wanted to dig in a little more detail, if you could share your outlook as it relates to the service piece of the equation, which obviously has been a very strong performer. And, we continue to see like the global disruption, but you're seeing some signs of improvement. So, I just want to understand how you feel about the renewal of the Russia-Ukraine grain deal, but also in context with everything that's shaping up in the world, the demand versus supply side, and where you see buckets of opportunity, maybe some market share gains? And what are the risks, particularly to your current outlook?

完美的。 Vikram, Juan 大會上的結果。所以我的問題只是稍微回到農業服務和油籽業務。我想更詳細地挖掘一下，如果你能分享你對等式服務部分的看法，這顯然是一個非常強大的表現。而且，我們繼續看到全球中斷，但你看到了一些改善的跡象。所以，我只想了解您對俄羅斯-烏克蘭糧食協議續約的看法，同時也了解世界上正在發生的一切，需求與供應方面，以及您在哪裡看到大量機會，也許是一些市場份額增長？風險是什麼，尤其是對您當前的前景而言？

Yes Ben, a full question there. So listen, Ag Services delivered another very, very strong quarter, this year. It was strong in South America. It was strong in North America. It was strong at the global trade through all our destination marketing facilities. So, when you look at the Q2, of course, in Q1, we were able to export a little bit more than maybe Brazil couldn't do it because of the some of the rains and the delays. We think that in Q2 and Brazil will probably take over being the large crop that they have and the cheapest origin.

是的，本，那裡有一個完整的問題。所以聽著，Ag Services 今年又交付了一個非常非常強勁的季度。它在南美洲很強大。它在北美很強大。通過我們所有的目的地營銷設施，它在全球貿易中表現強勁。所以，當你看第二季度時，當然，在第一季度，我們能夠出口的產品比巴西可能因為一些降雨和延誤而無法出口的產品多一點。我們認為，在第二季度，巴西可能會成為他們擁有的大作物和最便宜的產地。

Destination marketing, we're still holding margins there. It is an important activity around the world. You described the risks associated. When we think about the year, the year hinges a lot, in the recovery of demand in China post lockdowns. The ups and downs of the crops around the world, we still have to deal with an Argentine disaster in terms of crops, and with the Brazil that has a very strong growth. That is creating changes in the trade flows. So all of a sudden, we are sending beans from the U.S. to Europe, to transform into biodiesel and bringing the biodiesel back. But also, Brazil is sending beans to Argentina. Brazil is maybe sending a little bit of boats of beans here.

目的地營銷，我們仍然在那裡保持利潤率。這是世界範圍內的一項重要活動。您描述了相關風險。當我們想到這一年時，這一年在很大程度上取決於中國在封鎖後需求的複蘇。世界各地農作物的起伏，我們仍然要應對阿根廷的農作物災難，以及增長非常強勁的巴西。這正在改變貿易流向。所以突然之間，我們將豆類從美國運往歐洲，轉化為生物柴油並將生物柴油帶回歐洲。而且，巴西正在向阿根廷出口大豆。巴西可能會向這裡運送一些豆子。

So there is a lot of changes in that and that ADM normally takes advantage of our huge footprint. And normally, our footprint and our ability to execute on those trade flows become an advantage. So you're going to see that in Ag Services around the year. I said there are 2 pivot in things this year. One is, again, China demand coming out of lockdown. The second is the ability of Ukraine to continue to export. As we have been doing during since August, last year. Of course, the corridor has been renewed. At ADM, we will always do our best to make sure that, that continues as an export source for the Ukrainians.

所以這方面有很多變化，ADM 通常會利用我們巨大的足跡。通常，我們的足跡和執行這些貿易流的能力成為一種優勢。所以你會在全年的 Ag Services 中看到這一點。我說過今年有兩個關鍵點。一是中國需求解除封鎖。二是烏克蘭繼續出口的能力。正如我們自去年八月以來一直在做的那樣。當然，走廊已經更新了。在 ADM，我們將始終盡最大努力確保它繼續作為烏克蘭人的出口來源。

Remember that, that part of the world owns 25% of all the black rich soil in the world. So it's a very important condition -- very important production area. So the corridor has been renewed. But of course, there are differences between Ukrainians view and Russian views at this point in time. And unfortunately, we have seen over the last weeks inspection of vessels being reduced, or maybe a few days per week. So we remain hopeful, and we remain ready to help to do this.

請記住，世界上那個地區擁有世界上所有黑色肥沃土壤的 25%。所以這是一個非常重要的條件——非常重要的產區。所以走廊已經更新了。但當然，此時烏克蘭人和俄羅斯人的觀點存在差異。不幸的是，我們看到過去幾週對船隻的檢查有所減少，或者每週減少幾天。因此，我們仍然充滿希望，我們隨時準備為此提供幫助。

I think that what we need to think fundamentally the corridor is all about the availability of bringing that production. What I worry of the accessibility, better said, what I worry is about the availability of the crop. This prolonged conflict is hurting the Ukrainian farmers and it's hurting the Russian farmers. Both are dealing with issues. And I think that the expectation should be the country not resolved for production out of this area to come lower over the coming years, regardless of the export corridor.

我認為我們需要從根本上考慮走廊的全部內容是提供該產品的可用性。我擔心的是可訪問性，更好地說，我擔心的是農作物的可用性。這場曠日持久的衝突傷害了烏克蘭農民，也傷害了俄羅斯農民。兩者都在處理問題。而且我認為，無論出口走廊如何，該地區的產量在未來幾年都不會下降，這應該是該國未解決的問題。

So I think again, short term an accessibility issue long term or medium term are worry more about availability and creating the pockets of tension again.

所以我再次認為，短期的可訪問性問題長期或中期更擔心可用性並再次造成緊張局勢。

The next question today comes from the line of Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets. Andrew, please go ahead.

今天的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Andrew Strelzik。安德魯，請繼續。

My first one is on the Refined Products segment, which came in much, much stronger than we anticipated. And when I look at the dynamics that you called out on biodiesel and some of the other things, it seems like a lot of those are still very much in place. Is it possible that, that is a more sustainable, I guess, not run rate, but more achievable again in the second quarter? Are there things that have changed that would prevent that from happening?

我的第一個是精煉產品領域，它的表現比我們預期的要強得多。當我看到你提到的生物柴油和其他一些東西的動態時，似乎其中很多仍然非常到位。有沒有可能，我想這是一個更可持續的，而不是運行率，但在第二季度再次實現？是否有一些改變可以防止這種情況發生？

Yes, Andrew, I think we feel pretty good that we will execute very well in this segment and probably exceed last year's performance. We have good visibility given the book that we have. So demand continues to be there strong, and we continue to execute well. We see the margins, and they continue to be there with us. So there has been some comments about maybe a slower ramp-up of some facilities. It's very difficult to predict the ramp-up of specific facilities. But when you look at all the data, you see all that material coming.

是的，安德魯，我認為我們感覺很好，我們將在這一領域表現出色，並且可能超過去年的表現。鑑於我們擁有的書，我們有很好的知名度。因此需求繼續強勁，我們繼續執行良好。我們看到了利潤率，它們將繼續與我們同在。因此，有一些評論說某些設施的啟動速度可能會較慢。很難預測特定設施的增加。但是當你查看所有數據時，你會看到所有這些材料都在湧現。

Soybean now, it will continue to be a key feedstock for this, it's impossible to develop all this industry without the participation of soybean. Now we have a path for canola oil to get to that source. U.S. biodiesel production was up 8% in Q1. Renewable diesel production was up like 61% versus the previous year. We continue to flex our system to be able to bring biodiesel from Europe to benefit the U.S. industry.

現在的大豆，將繼續作為這個產業的主要原料，沒有大豆的參與，這個產業的發展是不可能的。現在我們有了菜籽油到達那個來源的途徑。第一季度美國生物柴油產量增長了 8%。與上一年相比，可再生柴油產量增長了 61%。我們繼續調整我們的系統，以便能夠從歐洲引進生物柴油，造福美國工業。

And as I said before, we expect a year that will be better than last year. And given the affordable book that we have, we have visibility into that. So we feel very confident about this, Andrew.

正如我之前所說，我們預計今年會比去年更好。鑑於我們擁有負擔得起的書，我們對此有了解。所以我們對此非常有信心，安德魯。

The next question today comes from the line of Ben Bienvenu from Stephens.

今天的下一個問題來自 Stephens 的 Ben Bienvenu。

I want to ask about the Starches and Sweeteners business. You called out strong core results, good volumes and good margins. Obviously, the segment was weighed on by weaker ethanol results. Could you talk a little bit about the overall backdrop that you're seeing for the balance of the year? And would operating profit have been up, in the first quarter, excluding the headwinds from ethanol?

我想問一下澱粉和甜味劑業務。您提出了強勁的核心業績、良好的銷量和良好的利潤率。顯然，該部門受到較弱的乙醇結果的拖累。你能談談今年餘下時間的總體背景嗎？如果排除來自乙醇的不利因素，第一季度的營業利潤會上升嗎？

Well, so on Starches and Sweeteners, you're right. In -- let's break it down. The liquid sweetener part of the portfolio, we see resilient demand and strong margins given the good contracting we had last year. And we also see increased volumes from Mexico, which helps the business. The other thing that should help over the course of the year is higher sugar prices. While you know we don't have a lot of spot business, but to the extent we do, that should be supportive of margins in the liquid sweetener side of the portfolio.

那麼，關於澱粉和甜味劑，你是對的。在 - 讓我們分解它。投資組合中的液體甜味劑部分，鑑於我們去年的良好合同，我們看到了彈性需求和強勁的利潤率。我們還看到來自墨西哥的銷量增加，這有助於業務發展。在這一年中應該有所幫助的另一件事是更高的糖價。雖然你知道我們沒有很多現貨業務，但就我們所做的而言，這應該會支持投資組合中液體甜味劑方面的利潤率。

The specialty side, we are seeing strong margins but some softness in the volumes. That's also part of Sweeteners and Starches. In the BioSolutions, when you think about the mix of the portfolio, we are moving more and more towards the BioSolutions business. And that had very strong performance consistently over the last few years and again in Q1, with 20-plus percent growth in revenue and anticipated to continue at that clip for the course of this year.

在專業方面，我們看到利潤率很高，但銷量有些疲軟。這也是甜味劑和澱粉的一部分。在 BioSolutions 中，當您考慮產品組合的組合時，我們正越來越多地轉向 BioSolutions 業務。這在過去幾年和第一季度的表現一直非常強勁，收入增長了 20% 以上，預計今年將繼續保持這種增長勢頭。

So at a high level Sweeteners and Starches, good volumes and robust margins. So it should give us confidence that we'll have a very good year again, in 2023. Now with respect to ethanol, that remains the most volatile part of our portfolio, Q1 was soft. We think Q2 is going to be a little better, although lower than Q2 of last year. We had the biofuel tax credit, which we referenced, which will not repeat. But we also see some green shoots on the ethanol side. We are more constructive about the outlook of ethanol for the rest of the year. Why? For a few reasons.

因此，在高水平的甜味劑和澱粉、良好的銷量和穩健的利潤率方面。因此，它應該讓我們有信心，我們將在 2023 年再次度過一個非常好的一年。現在關於乙醇，它仍然是我們投資組合中最不穩定的部分，第一季度表現疲軟。我們認為第二季度會好一點，儘管低於去年第二季度。我們有生物燃料稅收抵免，我們引用過，不再重複。但我們也看到了乙醇方面的一些萌芽。我們對今年餘下時間乙醇的前景更具建設性。為什麼？有幾個原因。

One is, we see ethanol stock levels coming off their peaks from earlier in Q1. Two, we continue to see good export demand. Think about what's happening even in Japan and India. So our export demand should be in the 1.2 billion, 1.4 billion gallons, which is consistent with what we saw last year. We also see higher blending rates. I think, blend rates have trended slightly up. Gasoline demand continues to be strong given the strong blend economics.

一是，我們看到乙醇庫存水平從第一季度早些時候的峰值回落。第二，我們繼續看到良好的出口需求。想想日本和印度正在發生的事情。所以我們的出口需求應該在 12 億、14 億加侖，這與我們去年看到的一致。我們還看到了更高的混合率。我認為，混合率略有上升。鑑於強勁的混合經濟性，汽油需求繼續強勁。

So in short, while we think ethanol will likely be low from an absolute margin perspective versus last year, we're still constructive generally for the rest of the year. So overall, we see a pretty strong year for Carbohydrate Solutions business.

所以簡而言之，雖然我們認為從絕對利潤率的角度來看乙醇可能會低於去年，但我們對今年餘下時間總體上仍然持建設性態度。總的來說，我們看到碳水化合物解決方案業務表現強勁。

The next question today comes from the line of Eric Larson from Seaport Global Securities.

今天的下一個問題來自 Seaport Global Securities 的 Eric Larson。

Congratulations on a good quarter. This probably comes -- I can't remember the last time I actually asked an ethanol question, but my -- one of my questions today is on ethanol. So the outlook going into '24, actually looks better because we now have -- we now have a year potentially, hopefully, year-end or year-round E15 blending, which I know it's a disappointment, it's in '24, not '20 -- starting in '23, but that could consume another 1.5 billion or 2 billion bushels of corn. So the outlook for ethanol, this year, I appreciate Vikram's comments. But wouldn't you expect maybe that your demand would be better starting in '24? And now, you'll have some confidence that the retailers can put infrastructure in to put the pumps in for E15. So is that too optimistic on my part?

祝賀一個好的季度。這可能會出現——我不記得我上次問乙醇問題是什麼時候了，但我——我今天的一個問題是關於乙醇的。所以進入 24 年的前景實際上看起來更好，因為我們現在有 - 我們現在有可能，希望是年底或全年的 E15 混合，我知道這是令人失望的，它是在 24 年，而不是20——從 23 年開始，但這可能會消耗另外 15 億或 20 億蒲式耳的玉米。所以今年乙醇的前景，我很欣賞 Vikram 的評論。但是您是否不希望從 24 世紀開始您的需求可能會更好？現在，您將有信心零售商可以投入基礎設施來為 E15 安裝泵。那麼我是不是太樂觀了？

Yes, Eric, let me take you a little bit higher because the gyrations of ethanol up and down sometimes get confused, but we invest for the long term here. So Fundamentally, if you think about the last IPPC report, it strongly argues that it's going to be difficult for Humanity to stay in the 1.5 degree hitting that we should try to achieve based on the Paris agreement.

是的，埃里克，讓我把你帶高一點，因為乙醇的上下波動有時會讓人困惑，但我們在這裡進行長期投資。所以從根本上說，如果你想想上一份 IPPC 報告，它強烈地指出，人類很難保持在我們應該根據巴黎協議努力實現的 1.5 度的目標。

If you think about that, then adaptation is what all companies and all governments are thinking about. Biofuels and Bioproducts like biomaterials or BioSolutions are a key part of that adaptation. So whether it's ethanol -- whether it's ethanol getting in a pathway to SAF, whether it's renewable green diesel, whether it is biodiesel, that's going to be a big part of the future. And ADM's strong position in that and competitive advantage will shine through. We see the same thing as we position ourselves for BioSolutions or biomaterials.

如果您考慮這一點，那麼適應就是所有公司和所有政府都在考慮的問題。生物燃料和生物產品（如生物材料或生物解決方案）是這種適應的關鍵部分。因此，無論是乙醇——無論是進入 SAF 的途徑的乙醇，無論是可再生綠色柴油，還是生物柴油，這都將成為未來的重要組成部分。而 ADM 在這方面的強大地位和競爭優勢將大放異彩。當我們將自己定位為生物解決方案或生物材料時，我們看到了同樣的事情。

Again, this is just -- you're going to see governments, you're going to see companies, you're going to see everybody having to work together to achieve this energy transition, if you will, and to be able to keep climate change to a level that is manageable. But you have to think biofuels will be an important part of the future. U.S. will be a key player in biofuel and ADM will be absolutely in a strong position to deliver on that.

再一次，這只是——你會看到政府，你會看到公司，你會看到每個人都必須共同努力實現這種能源轉型，如果你願意的話，並且能夠保持氣候變化達到可控水平。但你必須認為生物燃料將是未來的重要組成部分。美國將成為生物燃料領域的關鍵參與者，ADM 絕對有能力實現這一目標。

The next question today comes from the line of Manav Gupta from UBS.

今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Manav Gupta。

Quick question guys. Help us understand just a little bit what caused the crush margins to come in so sharply. We entered this year thinking a lot of new RD capacity will start up and soybean prices will actually move up. They've actually moved down. Was it like too much prebuying happening in 4Q. What caused this pullback in soybean oil prices? And then vegetables, so as we look at the vegetable oil prices, refined product prices are still at a significant premium to unrefined which technically benefits you a lot. So your outlook for the spread between refined and unrefined vegetable oils.

快速提問伙計們。幫助我們稍微了解一下是什麼導致擠壓利潤率如此急劇上升。我們進入今年時認為許多新的研發能力將啟動，大豆價格實際上會上漲。他們實際上已經向下移動了。是不是像第四季度發生了太多的預購？豆油價格回落的原因是什麼？然後是蔬菜，所以當我們看植物油價格時，精煉產品的價格仍然比未精煉的產品價格高很多，這在技術上對你有很大好處。因此，您對精煉和未精煉植物油之間價差的看法。

Yes. So on the crush margins, as Juan noted, clearly, as you can also see in the curve right now, Q2 looks soft. And the reason is because of the expectation of a certain delay in renewable green diesel capacity. Just to be clear, we remain confident that renewable green diesel capacity is going to increase by about 1 billion gallons in 2023. The time line has just been pushed back to the second half of this year. So therefore, you see a little bit of softness in the nearby as a consequence of that. The other aspect is also related to what's happening in Argentina. In Argentina, there's given -- there's more beans given what's happened with the soy dollar for at least part of Q2, there's more crush capacity, if you may, that's coming online. And that's also helping reduce a little bit of the nearby crush.

是的。因此，正如 Juan 指出的那樣，在擠壓利潤率上，很明顯，正如您現在在曲線中也可以看到的那樣，Q2 看起來很疲軟。原因是由於對可再生綠色柴油產能的一定延遲的預期。需要明確的是，我們仍然相信可再生綠色柴油產能將在 2023 年增加約 10 億加侖。時間線剛剛被推遲到今年下半年。因此，您會因此在附近看到一點點柔軟。另一個方面也與阿根廷發生的事情有關。在阿根廷，有鑑於第二季度至少部分時間大豆美元的情況，有更多的豆類，如果可以的話，有更多的壓榨能力正在上線。這也有助於減少附近的一點迷戀。

What's going to happen in Argentina by May or June time frame, they're going to run out of beans. So that export is not going to be available. So that should be supportive of crush margins beyond Q2. And that's why you see, the slight inverse in the curve in the nearby and then recovering in the back half of the year. So that's really all that happened. It was transitory, nothing that is more than that is the delay in renewable green diesel capacity as well as what's happening in Argentina -- in Argentina.

到 5 月或 6 月的時間框架，阿根廷將會發生什麼，他們將用完豆子。所以出口將不可用。因此，這應該會支持第二季度以後的壓榨利潤率。這就是為什麼你會看到，附近的曲線略有反轉，然後在今年下半年恢復。所以這就是真正發生的一切。這是暫時的，只不過是可再生綠色柴油產能的延遲以及阿根廷正在發生的事情——在阿根廷。

The next question today comes from the line of Steven Haynes from Morgan Stanley.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Steven Haynes。

I wanted to ask on the carbon capture discussion earlier in the call, and the plans to kind of triple the well capacity. Do you know kind of a time line for when that might be completed? And how much capital you're going to be putting behind that initiative?

我想在電話會議的早些時候詢問有關碳捕獲的討論，以及將井容量增加三倍的計劃。你知道什麼時候可以完成嗎？您將為該計劃投入多少資金？

Yes. So at the moment, we operate 1 well, we're going to activate the second well and then bring 5 new wells. Each well from a capital perspective is not a big burden. It's something about $15 million to $20 million per well, depending on the cost of metals and all that. So we probably are in the high end of $20 million in the low end or something like $12 million to $15 million.

是的。所以目前，我們操作 1 口井，我們將激活第二口井，然後帶來 5 口新井。每口井從資金角度來說都不是什麼大負擔。每口井大約需要 1500 萬到 2000 萬美元，具體取決於金屬成本等。因此，我們可能處於低端 2000 萬美元的高端或 1200 萬至 1500 萬美元左右。

The time line every time we need to have a well finished is about 3 months. So it's relatively quickly. The issue is you need to go through regulatory approvals. And that's where we are working where government affairs team is working heavily with dedicator area and with some of the farmers in the area. So again, it could happen relatively quickly, probably within the next couple of years, if you will, not a big burden from a capital perspective, but will significantly increase our ability to pump CO2 underground.

每次我們需要完成一口井的時間線大約是 3 個月。所以還是比較快的。問題是您需要通過監管部門的批准。這就是我們工作的地方，政府事務團隊正在與奉獻者地區和該地區的一些農民進行大量合作。因此，它可能會相對快速地發生，如果你願意的話，可能會在未來幾年內發生，從資本的角度來看這不是一個大負擔，但會顯著提高我們將二氧化碳泵入地下的能力。

As I said, today, we have about 1 million tons, give or take, per year. This will take us to 7 million, and it will be a significant boost to the decarbonization of Decatur and Decatur becoming the through supplier of low-carbon intensity feedstocks for many industries.

正如我所說，今天，我們每年大約有 100 萬噸，或多或少。這將使我們達到 700 萬，這將極大地促進迪凱特的脫碳和迪凱特成為許多行業的低碳強度原料的直通供應商。

The next question today comes from the line of Ben Kallo from Baird.

今天的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Ben Kallo。

Maybe could we touch just going back to renewable diesel and crush capacity coming online. Could you just remind us about the North Dakota facility. And if there's offtakes there or if we potentially get to a position when it comes online for the '23 harvest where you're going to have excess crush capacity out there, with others coming online and if there's further delays. And then, maybe could you touch on just RVO and any kind of expectations around timing there and thoughts around if anything would be revised.

也許我們可以談談回到可再生柴油和壓榨能力上線。你能不能提醒我們關於北達科他州的設施。如果那裡有承購，或者如果我們有可能在 23 年收穫上線時達到一個位置，在那裡你將擁有過剩的壓榨能力，其他人上線以及是否有進一步的延誤。然後，也許你可以談談 RVO 以及對時間安排的任何期望，以及是否要修改任何內容的想法。

Thank you, Ben. Thank you for the question. Yes, as you said, coming along with the development of the industry, ADM wants to be pressed on bringing crush capacity. We're doing that, as you know, in a partnership with an oil company. So they have the ability to move that product to make it into the fuel market. We have the responsibility to move, of course, the meal for which we've been working on. The plant is coming thankfully on time and on schedule to be with us by the harvest. So about the Q3, as I said in my remarks, the 150,000 tons bushels per day of crush capacity.

謝謝你，本。感謝你的提問。是的，正如您所說，隨著行業的發展，ADM希望在增加壓榨能力方面受到壓力。如您所知，我們正在與一家石油公司合作。因此，他們有能力將該產品轉移到燃料市場。當然，我們有責任搬走我們一直在努力準備的餐點。值得慶幸的是，這株植物準時到達，並在收穫時與我們同在。那麼關於第三季度，正如我在發言中所說，每天 150,000 噸蒲式耳的壓榨能力。

We look at the industry. I always mentioned or I mentioned before that we look at this plant and project for 2 years to make sure that capacity was coming on stream prudently. We see now the industry. We see all the capacity that is coming, is all needed to be able to supply this. I think the renewal diesel industry is still going to have an issue how to get feedstock for that. So that will be the issue for a while. I think that will make meal, U.S. meal very competitive in the world markets and the U.S. is planning to take share. We are part of that plan as well.

我們看行業。我總是提到或之前提到過，我們對這個工廠和項目進行了 2 年的審查，以確保產能能夠謹慎投產。我們現在看到這個行業。我們看到所有即將到來的能力，都是能夠提供這一點所需要的。我認為更新柴油行業仍然存在如何獲得原料的問題。所以這將是一段時間的問題。我認為這將使餐食、美國餐食在世界市場上極具競爭力，美國正計劃分一杯羹。我們也是該計劃的一部分。

So we feel comfortable about the cadence at which the plants are coming. Maybe some of our renewable diesel plants are coming, a little bit slower than expected. Every project has its issues. Thankfully, ours is not delayed. But if others are, I think it's going to facilitate a little bit the digestion of all this capacity that is coming because we need to get the fit for that. I think Vikram will cover the second part of your question on RVOs.

因此，我們對植物生長的節奏感到滿意。也許我們的一些可再生柴油工廠即將到來，比預期的要慢一點。每個項目都有它的問題。值得慶幸的是，我們的沒有延遲。但如果其他人是，我認為這將有助於消化所有這些即將到來的能力，因為我們需要適應它。我認為 Vikram 將涵蓋您關於 RVO 問題的第二部分。

Yes. As you know, Ben, in December, the RVO proposal that came out was largely constructive for the biofuels industry and we appreciated the multiyear proposal as well as the strong support for conventional ethanol. We, however, did note in our testimony and written comments to the EPA. The opportunity for improvement in the advanced category of biomass-based diesel. And it's important to note that does not, in any way, change our assessment of the strong renewable diesel capacity growth this year and beyond.

是的。如你所知，Ben，12 月出台的 RVO 提案在很大程度上對生物燃料行業具有建設性，我們讚賞多年期提案以及對傳統乙醇的大力支持。然而，我們確實在我們的證詞和給 EPA 的書面評論中註明了這一點。改進生物質基柴油的高級類別的機會。重要的是要注意，這不會以任何方式改變我們對今年及以後可再生柴油產能強勁增長的評估。

And this is going to come out in June. We expect that the EPA is going to consider the feedback they've got from the industry, and we are constructive about what that outlook is going to look like. But nevertheless, we are confident about the growth of the renewable diesel capacity and the ongoing benefit and impact for crush margins going forward.

這將在六月問世。我們預計 EPA 將考慮他們從行業中獲得的反饋，並且我們對該前景的展望持建設性態度。儘管如此，我們對可再生柴油產能的增長以及未來壓榨利潤率的持續收益和影響充滿信心。

Your final question today comes from the line of Salvator Tiano from Bank of America..

您今天的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Salvator Tiano。

I want to go back to the Ag Service segment and understand a couple of things. So firstly, when I go back to the transcript last quarter, your initial expectations were for earnings to be down versus last year, if I remember correctly. And instead, they were up 35%. So -- you mentioned a lot of dislocations, but I just want to understand what actually differed versus your January expectations firstly for Q1?

我想回到 Ag Service 部分並了解一些事情。因此，首先，當我回顧上個季度的成績單時，如果我沒記錯的話，你們最初的預期是收益會低於去年。相反，它們上漲了 35%。所以 - 你提到了很多錯位，但我只想了解與你 1 月份對第一季度的預期到底有什麼不同？

And secondly, you made the comment that Q2 earnings for Ag Services will be lower year-on-year. And I think, that's pretty much what everybody expected given the situation with Ukraine last year. I just want to frame a little bit with regard to Q1 where you may [$350 million] profit. How do you expect Q2 Ag Services to be versus Q1. And especially given that Brazil is still selling -- farmers have still sold far less soybeans than last year. Does this mean that you can see a very big boost in Q2 from these from these trade flows?

其次，您評論說 Ag Services 第二季度的收益將同比下降。我認為，考慮到去年烏克蘭的局勢，這幾乎是每個人都期望的。我只想對 Q1 做一些框架，你可能會從中獲利 [3.5 億美元]。您如何看待 Q2 Ag Services 與 Q1 相比。特別是考慮到巴西仍在銷售——農民銷售的大豆仍遠少於去年。這是否意味著您可以從這些貿易流中看到第二季度的巨大增長？

Thank you, Salvator, for the question. So as you said, Ag Services has a very, very good first quarter. This team continues to deliver and outperform sometimes on our own expectations. If you think about global trade and all the issues around the world sometimes are difficult to estimate, if you will, but our team with their ability to connect, if you will, origins with destinations and especially with the investments that we have made over the years on destination markets and allow us to capture more volume at higher margins than maybe in the past.

Salvator，謝謝你提出這個問題。正如您所說，Ag Services 第一季度的表現非常非常好。這個團隊有時會繼續交付並超越我們自己的期望。如果你考慮全球貿易和世界各地的所有問題，有時很難估計，如果你願意的話，但我們的團隊有能力將起點與目的地聯繫起來，尤其是我們在全球範圍內所做的投資多年的目的地市場，使我們能夠以比過去更高的利潤率獲得更多的銷量。

They have had also a very disciplined risk management and very effective one, which we expect from them, but sometimes it's not that easy to deliver in this volatile world. Great execution in Australia, great execution on the Black Sea, origination program and again, a solid margins at destination. South America were probably another bright point for us. They capture higher volumes and margins. We were very well positioned on a crop that was very large and on a farmer that was undersold. So we position ourselves properly, and we get the rewards from that.

他們也有非常有紀律和非常有效的風險管理，這是我們對他們的期望，但有時在這個動蕩的世界中交付並不那麼容易。在澳大利亞的出色執行，在黑海的出色執行，原始計劃以及在目的地的可觀利潤。南美可能是我們的另一個亮點。他們獲得了更高的銷量和利潤。我們在一個非常大的作物和一個被低估的農民身上處於非常有利的位置。因此，我們正確定位自己，並從中獲得回報。

And North America benefited from a strong risk management and a strong bean export programs. Again, Brazil was a little bit delay with some of the rains and all that in terms of their harvest. So the U.S. extended the window a little bit more. Now Brazil, we think -- if you think about second quarter and what we're predicting it to be a little bit lower is we're not going to have -- if you think about second quarter last year, the same volatility that we have because of Ukraine at that point in time. And the world was starting, and the world was a little bit stunned on what we do now. Now we know what do we do? We have channels to export the product is flowing for the most part.

北美受益於強大的風險管理和強大的豆類出口計劃。再一次，巴西的一些降雨和所有這些在收成方面都有點延遲。因此，美國將窗口延長了一點。現在巴西，我們認為 - 如果你考慮第二季度，我們預測它會稍微低一點，我們不會 - 如果你考慮去年第二季度，我們的波動性相同在那個時間點因為烏克蘭。世界正在起步，世界對我們現在所做的事情感到有點震驚。現在我們知道我們要做什麼了嗎？我們有出口產品的渠道，大部分是流動的。

As I warned in my previous question, I think we're more worried about the productivity of the farmers of Ukraine and Russia eventually later on. But I think, for this year, we have the ability to export that. We expect robust North American corn exports until Brazil second corn crop is available. And then, I think that North America will lap until Brazil run out of core. So we have lower North American soy exports expected in the second quarter because Brazil will take that place. So it's a little bit the shift, if you will. And the decrease of that shift to be honest, Salvator sometimes are marked by the logistics issues. Brazil has a large corn crop and soybean crop, and it needs to be able to move that to the ports and being able to ship it. And then, you have the Ukraine issue we discussed before.

正如我在上一個問題中警告的那樣，我認為我們最終更擔心烏克蘭和俄羅斯農民的生產力。但我認為，今年，我們有能力輸出它。在巴西第二季玉米上市之前，我們預計北美玉米出口強勁。然後，我認為北美會一直跑到巴西用完核心。因此，我們預計第二季度北美大豆出口量較低，因為巴西將取代這一位置。所以，如果你願意的話，這有點轉變。老實說，這種轉變的減少，Salvator 有時會出現後勤問題。巴西有大量的玉米和大豆作物，它需要能夠將其運到港口並能夠裝運。然後是我們之前討論過的烏克蘭問題。

So those are the puts and takes. In general, as I said, the unit is performing very well, performed exceptionally well in the first quarter. We expect them to perform stronger in the second quarter, but maybe not as strong as second quarter last year. Thank you.

所以這些就是投入和投入。總的來說，正如我所說，該部門表現非常好，第一季度表現非常出色。我們預計他們在第二季度的表現會更好，但可能不如去年第二季度那麼強勁。謝謝。

Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to pass the conference over to Megan Britt for closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉交給梅根·布里特 (Megan Britt) 作閉幕詞。

Thank you for joining us today. Please feel free to follow up with me, if you have any additional questions. Have a good day, and thanks for your time and interest in ADM.

感謝您今天加入我們。如果您有任何其他問題，請隨時與我聯繫。祝你有美好的一天，感謝您抽出寶貴的時間和對 ADM 的興趣。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。