(WTFC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Wintrust Financial Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. A review of the results will be made by Tim Crane, President and Chief Executive Officer; David Dykstra, Vice Chairman and Chief Operating Officer; and Richard Murphy, Vice Chairman and Chief Lending Officer. As part of their reviews, the presenters may make reference to both the earnings press release and the earnings release presentation. Following their presentations, there will be a formal question-and-answer session.

歡迎參加 Wintrust Financial Corporation 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。總裁兼執行長 Tim Crane 將審查結果； David Dykstra，副董事長兼營運長；以及副主席兼首席貸款官理查德·墨菲。作為評論的一部分，演講者可能會參考收益新聞稿和收益發布演示。在他們的演講之後，將舉行正式的問答環節。

During the course of today's call, Wintrust management may make statements that constitute, projections, expectations, beliefs or similar forward-looking statements.

在今天的電話會議期間，Wintrust 管理層可能會發表構成預測、期望、信念或類似前瞻性聲明的聲明。

Actual results could differ materially from the results anticipated or projected in any such forward-looking statements. The company's forward-looking assumptions that could cause the actual results to differ materially from the information discussed during this call are detailed in our earnings press release and in the company's most recent Form 10-K and any subsequent filings with the SEC.

實際結果可能與任何此類前瞻性陳述中預期或預期的結果有重大差異。該公司的前瞻性假設可能導致實際結果與本次電話會議中討論的資訊有重大差異，這些假設在我們的收益新聞稿、該公司最新的10-K 表格以及隨後向SEC 提交的任何文件中都有詳細說明。

Also, our remarks may reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Our earnings press release and earnings release presentation include a reconciliation of each non-GAAP financial measure to the nearest comparable GAAP financial measure. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Tim Crane.

此外，我們的言論可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益新聞稿和收益發布簡報包括每個非公認會計原則財務指標與最接近的可比較公認會計原則財務指標的調節表。謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音中。我現在將會議交給提姆·克蘭先生。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for the fourth quarter and full year call. For those who we haven't spoken to recently, Happy New Year. In addition to Dave Dykstra and Rich Murphy, who the host introduced, David Stoehr, our Chief Financial Officer; and Kate Boege, our General Counsel, are with me.

早上好，感謝您參加我們的第四季和全年電話會議。對於那些我們最近沒有聯繫過的人，新年快樂。除了主持人介紹的Dave Dykstra和Rich Murphy之外，還有我們的財務長David Stoehr；我們的總法律顧問 Kate Boege 也和我在一起。

In terms of an agenda, I'll share some high-level highlights. David Dykstra will speak to the financial results, and Rich will add some additional information and color on credit performance. I'll wrap up with some summary thoughts on 2024. And as always, we'll do our best to answer some questions.

在議程方面，我將分享一些高級別亮點。大衛·戴克斯特拉 (David Dykstra) 將談論財務業績，里奇 (Rich) 將添加一些有關信用表現的額外信息和色彩。最後我將總結一些關於 2024 年的想法。與往常一樣，我們將盡力回答一些問題。

For the year, we reported record net income of just over $622 million, up 22% over 2023. The results reflect our conservative approach to managing and growing our franchise. Specifically, we target steady growth in both loans and deposits, sound and conservative liquidity and risk management and an unwavering commitment to taking care of our clients. In our materials, as we do at every year-end, we have also included a series of 10-year historical charts that show solid progress on key metrics, evidence that our approach not only works but differentiates us from many of our peers.

今年，我們的淨利潤略高於 6.22 億美元，創歷史新高，比 2023 年增長 22%。這一結果反映了我們管理和發展特許經營的保守方法。具體來說，我們的目標是貸款和存款的穩定成長、穩健而保守的流動性和風險管理以及對客戶關懷的堅定承諾。在我們的材料中，正如我們在每年年底所做的那樣，我們還包含了一系列10 年曆史圖表，這些圖表顯示了關鍵指標的紮實進展，這證明我們的方法不僅有效，而且使我們與許多同行區分開來。

While this is not new information, we think these charts are meaningful evidence of our strong and consistent performance. And if you haven't already, I would encourage you to look at and review these materials. For the fourth quarter, net income was just over $123 million, a solid result given the recognition of a $34.4 million extraordinary expense related to the replenishment of the FDIC fund following the March bank failures and an approximately $10 million expense related to the write-down of certain mortgage-related assets due to the falling interest rates during the quarter.

雖然這不是新訊息，但我們認為這些圖表是我們強勁且一致的業績的有意義的證據。如果您還沒有這樣做，我鼓勵您查看並複習這些資料。第四季淨利略高於1.23 億美元，考慮到3 月份銀行倒閉後與FDIC 基金補充相關的3,440 萬美元特別費用以及與減記相關的約1,000 萬美元費用，淨利潤略高於1.23 億美元。由於本季利率下降，某些抵押貸款相關資產減少。

We reported record net interest income of $470 million, up approximately $8 million from the third quarter as a result of both an increase in the net interest margin of 2 basis points to 3.64% and continued good loan growth.

我們報告淨利息收入創紀錄地達到 4.7 億美元，較第三季度增加約 800 萬美元，這得益於淨息差增加 2 個基點至 3.64%，以及貸款持續良好增長。

Deposits were also up in the quarter. Noninterest-bearing deposits increased slightly and were steady as a percentage of total deposits. While we continue to expect credit performance to normalize from the very low levels experienced over the last few years, our losses and NPLs remain low.

本季存款也有所增加。無利息存款小幅成長，佔存款總額的比重保持穩定。雖然我們繼續預期信貸表現將從過去幾年的極低水準恢復正常，但我們的損失和不良貸款仍然很低。

Despite these low credit losses, we've continued to build the allowance. And as you'll hear from Rich, we continue to proactively address challenged credits in our portfolio. I would highlight that our allowance coverage for core loans, excluding primarily our low loss insurance finance portfolio is at healthy 1.55%. This detail is in Table 12 of our press release.

儘管信貸損失較低，我們仍持續增加準備金。正如您將從 Rich 那裡聽到的那樣，我們將繼續積極主動地解決我們投資組合中存在問題的信用問題。我想強調的是，我們的核心貸款準備金覆蓋率（主要不包括我們的低損失保險金融投資組合）處於健康的 1.55%。此詳細資訊請參閱我們新聞稿的表 12。

The market rate decreases during the quarter that caused the adjustment to the value of the mortgage assets also led to a material improvement in AOCI driving up our book value and capital levels. The tangible book value increased by $385 million to over $70 a share during the quarter. You'll see in one of the charts that I mentioned that our book value has increased every year during the 10-year period shown. And in fact, if you were to go further back, our tangible book value has increased every year since the company went public in 1996.

本季市場利率下降導致抵押資產價值調整，也導致 AOCI 大幅改善，推高了我們的帳面價值和資本水準。本季有形帳面價值增加了 3.85 億美元，達到每股 70 美元以上。您會在我提到的一張圖表中看到，在所示的 10 年期間，我們的帳面價值每年都在增加。事實上，如果你追溯得更遠，自 1996 年公司上市以來，我們的有形帳面價值每年都在成長。

Our liquidity position remains strong. Overall, a solid quarter, which we believe will compare well and may differentiate us relative to many of our competitors. With that, I'll turn this over to Dave and Rich. And as I mentioned, I'll come back and wrap up with some thoughts on the 2024 outlook.

我們的流動性狀況依然強勁。總體而言，這是一個穩健的季度，我們相信這將是一個很好的比較，並且可能使我們與許多競爭對手區分開來。這樣，我會將其交給戴夫和里奇。正如我所提到的，我將回來總結一些關於 2024 年前景的想法。

Great. Thanks, Tim. First, with respect to the balance sheet growth, we were again pleased to see loans for the quarter to grow by approximately $686 million or 7% on an annualized basis, consistent with our prior guidance of mid- to high single-digit loan growth. The increase in loans was across many of the loan categories but was primarily related to commercial real estate and commercial premium finance portfolio growth and Rich Murphy will talk about that in just a little bit.

偉大的。謝謝，蒂姆。首先，就資產負債表成長而言，我們再次高興地看到本季貸款成長約 6.86 億美元，按年化計算成長 7%，這與我們之前中高個位數貸款成長的指導一致。貸款的增加涉及許多貸款類別，但主要與商業房地產和商業優質金融投資組合的增長有關，里奇·墨菲將稍微討論一下這一點。

The company also recorded a deposit growth of $404 million during the quarter, which is a 4% increase over the prior quarter on an annualized basis. And as a positive composition noninterest-bearing deposits at end of the third quarter and fourth quarter, both represented 23% of total deposits, evidencing the stabilization of the noninterest-bearing balances during the latter half of 2023. Other balance sheet results where the total assets grew by approximately $705 million, we had slightly increased ending loan-to-deposit ratio and our capital ratios were relatively stable with most of those ratios increasing slightly.

該公司本季的存款成長了 4.04 億美元，按年化計算比上一季成長了 4%。截至第三季末和第四季末，無息存款構成正向，均佔存款總額的 23%，顯示 2023 年下半年無息存款餘額趨於穩定。資產成長了約7.05 億美元，期末貸存比略有上升，資本比率相對穩定，其中大部分比率略有上升。

Overall, a very successful quarter for the growth of the franchise, our differentiated business model, exceptional team and service and the unique position in Chicago and Milwaukee markets continues to serve us very well in that regard.

總體而言，這是一個非常成功的特許經營成長季度，我們差異化的業務模式、卓越的團隊和服務以及在芝加哥和密爾瓦基市場的獨特地位繼續在這方面為我們提供良好的服務。

Turning to the income statement categories, starting with net interest income. For the fourth quarter of 2023, net interest income totaled $470 million, an increase of $7.6 million as compared to the prior quarter and an increase of $13.2 million as compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. I should note that the fourth quarter net interest income represents the highest quarterly amount ever recorded by the company. The increase in net interest income as compared to the prior quarter was primarily due to an increase in average earning assets of approximately $509 million.

轉向損益表類別，從淨利息收入開始。 2023年第四季，淨利息收入總計4.7億美元，比上一季增加760萬美元，比2022年第四季增加1,320萬美元。我應該注意到，第四季淨利息收入是該公司有史以來最高的季度金額。淨利息收入較上一季增加主要是由於平均生息資產增加約 5.09 億美元。

An increase in the company's net interest margin also contributed to the increase in net interest income. The net interest margin was 3.64% in the fourth quarter, which was 2 basis points higher than the prior quarter level. Accordingly, as we discussed on prior calls, our balance sheet composition, structure and repricing characteristics provided for a relatively stable net interest margin during the quarter. And based on the current interest rate environment, we believe we can maintain our net interest margin within a narrow range around the current levels during the first quarter of 2024 and beyond in 2024, assuming the rates stay roughly the same.

公司淨利差的增加也帶動了淨利息收入的增加。第四季淨利差為3.64%，較上季提高2個基點。因此，正如我們在先前的電話會議中所討論的那樣，我們的資產負債表構成、結構和重新定價特徵為本季度提供了相對穩定的淨息差。基於目前的利率環境，我們認為，假設利率大致保持不變，我們可以在 2024 年第一季及 2024 年後將淨利差維持在目前水準附近的窄幅區間內。

I'd also like to note that total loans as of December 31 were $770 million higher than the average total loans in the fourth quarter, which obviously provides us with some momentum into the first quarter of 2024. The combination of the expected balance sheet growth and a relatively stable net interest margin should allow for further growth of our net interest income in the first quarter of this year.

我還想指出，截至 12 月 31 日的貸款總額比第四季度的平均貸款總額高出 7.7 億美元，這顯然為我們進入 2024 年第一季度提供了一些動力。結合預期的資產負債表增長相對穩定的淨利差應該有利於今年第一季我們淨利息收入的進一步成長。

Turning to provision for credit losses. Wintrust recorded a provision for credit losses of $42.9 million in the fourth quarter. This is up from a provision of $19.9 million in the prior quarter but actually down from the $47.6 million of provision recorded in the year ago quarter.

轉向信用損失撥備。 Wintrust 第四季的信貸損失準備金為 4,290 萬美元。這高於上一季 1,990 萬美元的撥備，但實際上低於去年同期記錄的 4,760 萬美元撥備。

The higher provision expense in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter was primarily a result of higher net loan growth during the quarter, a slightly higher level of net charge-offs and some deterioration in the forecasted macroeconomic conditions, primarily wider forecasted BAA credit spreads and forecasted depreciation of the commercial real estate price index. Rich will talk about the credit and loan characteristics in just a bit.

與第三季度相比，第四季度撥備費用較高，主要是由於本季度淨貸款增長較高、淨沖銷水平略高以及預測宏觀經濟狀況有所惡化，主要是由於預測的BAA 信用利差擴大以及商業不動產價格指數貶值的預測。里奇將簡單談談信用和貸款的特點。

Regarding other noninterest income and noninterest expense. Total noninterest income totaled $100.8 million in the fourth quarter, which was down approximately $11.6 million when compared to the prior quarter. The primary reason for the decline was related to $20 million less of mortgage banking revenue. Relative to the third quarter, mortgage revenue had a $9.7 million unfavorable change in net valuation adjustments from our mortgage servicing rights assets and certain other mortgage-related assets that we hold at fair value. Those declines are really due to a decline late in the fourth quarter in the mortgage rates and accelerated prepayment speeds.

關於其他非利息收入和非利息支出。第四季非利息收入總額為 1.008 億美元，比上一季減少約 1,160 萬美元。下降的主要原因與抵押貸款銀行業務收入減少 2000 萬美元有關。與第三季相比，我們的抵押貸款服務權資產和我們以公允價值持有的某些其他抵押貸款相關資產的淨估值調整，抵押貸款收入出現了 970 萬美元的不利變化。這些下降實際上是由於第四季度末抵押貸款利率下降和提前還款速度加快所致。

We also experienced $7 million decline in production revenue due to seasonally lower volume and compressed gain on sale margins. But I think it's interesting to note that although our production revenue was lower than the prior quarter, it's actually higher than the fourth quarter of the prior year, which is encouraging for us. We are also encouraged that with the lower rate environment, better application volume is picking up early in 2024 thus far. Albeit still at low levels, we are seeing increases over application volumes that we were receiving in January of last year and application volumes that are slightly up from December of '23.

由於季節性銷售下降和銷售利潤率成長壓縮，我們的生產收入也下降了 700 萬美元。但我認為有趣的是，儘管我們的生產收入低於上一季度，但實際上高於去年第四季度，這對我們來說是令人鼓舞的。我們也感到鼓舞的是，在較低的利率環境下，截至 2024 年初，申請量正在回升。儘管仍處於較低水平，但我們看到去年 1 月收到的申請量有所增加，並且比 2023 年 12 月的申請量略有增加。

There's a variety of relatively smaller changes in the other noninterest income categories, as shown in the tables in the earnings release, but those changes were not unusual and in the aggregate, resulted in an increase in the nonmortgage-related categories of approximately $8.3 million from the prior quarter.

正如收益報告中的表格所示，其他非利息收入類別出現了各種相對較小的變化，但這些變化並不罕見，總體而言，導致非抵押貸款相關類別的收入增加了約 830 萬美元。上一季。

Turning to noninterest expenses. Noninterest expenses totaled $362.7 million in the fourth quarter and were up approximately $32.6 million from the prior quarter. The primary reason for the increase was the negative impact of the $34.4 million special assessment by the FDIC to pay for the two of the bank failures that occurred earlier in 2023. The remaining variances in noninterest expense, both positive and negative also to a relatively small reduction in noninterest expenses from the prior quarter of just under $2 million.

轉向非利息支出。第四季非利息支出總計 3.627 億美元，比上一季增加約 3,260 萬美元。增加的主要原因是 FDIC 為支付 2023 年初發生的兩家銀行倒閉而進行的 3,440 萬美元特別評估的負面影響。非利息支出的剩餘差異（無論是正面還是負面）也相對較小非利息支出較上一季減少近200 萬美元。

In summary, it was a very solid quarter in our view with good loan and deposit growth, a stable net interest margin with a steady outlook, a record level of net interest income and a continued level of -- low level of nonperforming assets. We feel like we've managed well through a somewhat turbulent period in 2023, delivering net income that was a record for any full fiscal year in the company's history, and we have a positive outlook for continued growth in assets, revenue and earnings.

總而言之，我們認為這是一個非常穩健的季度，貸款和存款成長良好，淨利差穩定，前景穩定，淨利息收入創歷史新高，不良資產水準持續較低。我們認為，我們在 2023 年的一段有些動盪的時期管理得很好，淨利潤創下了公司歷史上任何一個完整財年的紀錄，並且我們對資產、收​​入和收益的持續增長抱有積極的前景。

And while it is easy to get caught up in looking at the quarterly results, I think it's also instructive to occasionally look back over time. As Tim referred to, we included some 10-year charts in the earnings release that I think provide some impressive evidence that our approach to running the business has provided for consistent growth in loans, deposits, earnings and tangible book value per share over an extended period of time, all while managing credit risk very well. We'll work hard to continue those trends in 2024 and beyond and increase shareholder returns. So with that, I'll conclude my comments and turn it over to Rich Murphy to discuss credit.

雖然人們很容易沉迷於查看季度業績，但我認為偶爾回顧時間也很有啟發性。正如蒂姆所提到的，我們在收益報告中納入了一些10 年圖表，我認為這些圖表提供了一些令人印象深刻的證據，表明我們的業務運營方法在長期內實現了貸款、存款、收益和每股有形帳面價值的持續成長。一段時間內，同時善用信用風險。我們將努力在 2024 年及以後繼續這些趨勢，並提高股東回報。因此，我將總結我的評論並將其交給 Rich Murphy 討論信用問題。

Thanks, Dave. As Tim and Dave noted earlier, credit performance continued to be very solid in the fourth quarter from a number of perspectives. As detailed on Slide 7 of the deck, loan growth for the quarter was $686 million. And similar to the third quarter, this growth was driven by a number of factors. We continue to see a harder market for insurance premiums, particularly for commercial properties, resulting in higher average loan sizes in our commercial premium finance portfolio and consolidation within the premium finance industry has provided us with revenue opportunities.

謝謝，戴夫。正如蒂姆和戴夫之前指出的那樣，從多個角度來看，第四季度的信貸表現仍然非常穩健。如投影片 7 所示，本季貸款成長為 6.86 億美元。與第三季類似，這一成長是由多種因素推動的。我們繼續看到保費市場更加艱難，特別是商業房地產，導致我們的商業保費金融投資組合中的平均貸款規模更高，而保費金融業的整合為我們提供了收入機會。

We saw good growth in the commercial real estate portfolio, resulting largely from draws on existing construction loans. And finally, our leasing group had another very solid quarter.

我們看到商業房地產投資組合的良好成長，這主要歸功於現有建築貸款的提取。最後，我們的租賃集團又迎來了一個非常穩健的季度。

Total loan growth for all of 2023 was $2.9 billion or 7%. We believe that loan growth for 2024 will continue to be within our guidance for the following reasons. The commercial premium finance team should continue to show solid growth as premiums continue to be elevated. Our various pipelines have stayed very solid, and our leasing team continues to see significant demand in the market. And as we have noted in prior calls, we continue to benefit from disruptions in the banking landscape, and we've seen numerous quality opportunities in our core C&I and CRE business. In addition, we continue to look at a number of lending teams and niche lending opportunities that come from dislocation in other regional banks.

2023 年全年貸款成長總額為 29 億美元，即 7%。我們認為，2024 年的貸款成長將繼續在我們的指導範圍內，原因如下。隨著保費持續上漲，商業保費融資團隊應持續呈現穩健成長。我們的各種管道一直保持非常穩定，我們的租賃團隊繼續看到市場的巨大需求。正如我們在先前的電話會議中指出的那樣，我們繼續受益於銀行業格局的混亂，並且我們在核心商業與工業和商業房地產業務中看到了許多優質機會。此外，我們還將繼續關注來自其他區域銀行混亂的貸款團隊和利基貸款機會。

Offsetting this growth will be continued pressure on C&I line utilization, which dropped from 37% to 34% year-over-year as higher borrowing costs have negatively affected users. We anticipate that higher borrowing costs will continue to cause borrowers to reconsider the economics of new projects, business expansion and equipment purchases.

工商業線路利用率的持續壓力將抵消這一增長，由於借貸成本上升對用戶產生了負面影響，工商業線路利用率從 37% 年減至 34%。我們預計，較高的借貸成本將繼續導致借款人重新考慮新項目、業務擴張和設備採購的經濟性。

In summary, we continue to be optimistic about our ability to grow loans in 2024, and we believe our diversified portfolio and position within the competitive landscape will allow us to grow within our guidance of mid to high single digits and maintain our credit discipline.

總而言之，我們繼續對2024 年增加貸款的能力持樂觀態度，我們相信，我們多元化的投資組合和在競爭格局中的地位將使我們能夠在中高個位數的指導範圍內增長，並維持我們的信用紀律。

From a credit quality perspective, as detailed on Slide 14, we continue to see strong credit performance across the portfolio. This can be seen in a number of metrics. Nonperforming loans increased by $6 million during the quarter from 32 to 33 basis points. While NPLs have increased from 26 basis points to 33 basis points during 2023, they continue to be at historically low levels, and we are confident about the solid credit performance of the portfolio. Charge-offs for the quarter were $14.9 million or 14 basis points, up from $8.1 million or 8 basis points in Q3.

從信用品質的角度來看，如投影片 14 所示，我們持續看到整個投資組合的信用表現強勁。這可以從許多指標看出。本季不良貸款增加 600 萬美元，從 32 個基點增加到 33 個基點。儘管不良貸款在 2023 年從 26 個基點增加到 33 個基點，但仍處於歷史低點，我們對投資組合穩健的信用表現充滿信心。本季的沖銷額為 1,490 萬美元，即 14 個基點，高於第三季的 810 萬美元，即 8 個基點。

Finally, as detailed on Slide 14, we saw stable levels in our special mention and substandard loans with no meaningful signs of additional economic stress at the customer level. As noted in our last few earnings calls, we continue to be highly focused on our exposure to commercial real estate loans, which comprises roughly 1/4 of our total portfolio. Higher borrowing costs and pressure on occupancy and lease rates are cause for concern, particularly in the office category as we've noted before.

最後，如投影片 14 所示，我們看到特別關注貸款和次級貸款水準穩定，在客戶層面沒有額外經濟壓力的明顯跡象。正如我們在最近幾次財報電話會議中所指出的，我們繼續高度關注商業房地產貸款，該貸款約占我們總投資組合的 1/4。較高的借貸成本以及入住率和租賃率的壓力令人擔憂，特別是在我們之前提到的辦公大樓類別。

On our second quarter call earlier this year, we noted that we were very focused on a subset of office loans, which are secured by co-working properties. At that time, we had sold a portfolio of approximately $17 million, which reduced our total co-working exposure in half. During the fourth quarter, we saw an increase in CRE NPLs of $17.4 million, which was largely due to a downgrade of a single co-working loan to nonperforming. It is important to note that the underlying loan is current and has been previously identified as a potential nonaccrual due to cash flow issues. We continue to work with the borrower to determine the most cost effective strategy going forward.

在今年稍早的第二季電話會議上，我們注意到我們非常關註一部分辦公貸款，這些貸款由共同工作物業擔保。當時，我們出售了價值約 1700 萬美元的投資組合，這使我們的共享辦公室總風險減少了一半。第四季度，我們發現商業房地產不良貸款增加了 1,740 萬美元，這主要是由於單筆共同工作貸款被降級為不良貸款。值得注意的是，基礎貸款是流動貸款，先前由於現金流問題已被確定為潛在的非應計貸款。我們將繼續與借款人合作，以確定未來最具成本效益的策略。

On Slide 18, we have updated a number of important characteristics of our office portfolio. Currently, this portfolio remained steady at $1.4 billion or 12.8% of our total CRE portfolio and only 3.4% of our total loan portfolio. Of the $1.4 billion of office exposure, 42% is medical office or owner occupied. The average size of the portfolio -- loan in the office portfolio is only 1.4 million, and we continue to have only 5 loans above $20 million in this category.

在投影片 18 上，我們更新了辦公室產品組合的許多重要特徵。目前，該投資組合穩定在 14 億美元，占我們 CRE 投資組合總額的 12.8%，僅佔貸款組合總額的 3.4%。在 14 億美元的辦公室風險中，42% 是由醫療辦公室或業主佔用的。投資組合－辦公室投資組合中的貸款平均規模僅為 140 萬筆，而該類別中我們仍只有 5 筆貸款超過 2,000 萬美元。

We continue to perform reviews regularly on this portfolio, and we stay very engaged with our borrowers. As mentioned on prior calls, our CRE credit team regularly updates their dive analysis of every loan over 2.5 million, which will be renewing between now and the end of the third quarter of 2024. This analysis, which covered 82% of all CRE loans maturing during this period resulted in the following: approximately 1/2 of these loans will clearly qualify for a renewal at prevailing rates. Roughly 35% of these loans are anticipated to be paid off or will require short-term extension at prevailing rates. The remaining 14% of these loans will require some additional attention, which could include a paydown or a pledge of additional collateral.

我們繼續定期對此投資組合進行審查，並與借款人保持密切聯繫。如同先前電話中所提到的，我們的CRE 信貸團隊定期更新對每筆超過250 萬筆貸款的深度分析，這些分析將從現在到2024 年第三季末進行更新。該分析涵蓋了所有到期CRE貸款的82%在此期間，產生了以下結果：這些貸款中約 1/2 顯然有資格以現行利率續約。這些貸款中約 35% 預計將得到償還或需要以現行利率進行短期延期。這些貸款的其餘 14% 需要額外關注，其中可能包括還款或額外抵押品的承諾。

It's important to note that the previously mentioned loans secured by co-working space had been identified during our prior deep dive analysis. We have back-checked the results of these tests conducted during prior quarters and have found that the projected outcomes versus actual outcomes were very tightly correlated and generally speaking, borrowers of loans deem to require additional attention, continue to support their loans by providing enhancements, including principal reductions.

值得注意的是，前面提到的由共享辦公空間擔保的貸款是在我們先前的深入分析中確定的。我們對前幾季進行的這些測試的結果進行了回溯，發現預測結果與實際結果密切相關，一般來說，貸款借款人認為需要額外關注，繼續透過提供增強功能來支持他們的貸款，包括本金減少。

Again, our portfolio is not immune from the effects of rising rates or the market forces behind lease rates, but we continue to proactively identify weaknesses in the portfolio and work with our borrowers to identify the best possible outcomes. We believe that our portfolio is in reasonably good shape and situated to weather the challenges ahead. That concludes my comments on credit, and I'll turn it back to Tim.

同樣，我們的投資組合也不能免受利率上升或租賃利率背後的市場力量的影響，但我們將繼續主動識別投資組合中的弱點，並與借款人合作，以確定最佳的可能結果。我們相信，我們的投資組合狀況相當良好，能夠應對未來的挑戰。我對信用的評論到此結束，我會將其轉回給蒂姆。

Great. Thanks, Rich. To wrap up our prepared remarks, we continue to believe that we are well positioned, perhaps uniquely well positioned to take advantage of the current environment with our diverse businesses. Over the last several quarters, we've taken steps to achieve an interest sensitivity position much closer to neutral. You can see some specific data on Table 8 in our press release. While we don't believe that rapid rate cuts are warranted at this point, we are assuming that there will be three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024. With that assumption, as Dave mentioned, our net interest margin will be reasonably stable in a narrow range around the current level for the near term.

偉大的。謝謝，里奇。在結束我們準備好的發言時，我們仍然相信我們處於有利位置，也許具有獨特的有利位置，可以透過我們的多元化業務利用當前的環境。在過去的幾個季度中，我們已採取措施使利率敏感度立場更接近中性。您可以在我們的新聞稿中看到表 8 的一些具體數據。雖然我們認為目前沒有必要快速降息，但我們假設 2024 年將有 3 次 25 個基點的降息。根據這一假設，正如 Dave 所提到的，我們的淨息差將在短期內將在當前水平附近窄幅波動。

More interest rate cuts above and beyond the three we've assumed would slightly pressure the margin but would also likely result in more favorable economic activity as an offset. For example, improvements in our mortgage business and growth in commercial line utilization, which Rich mentioned, is at currently very low levels. So to reiterate our prior comments, our target is to continue to grow loans in the mid- to high single-digit range in terms of our percentage and to fund the loan growth through deposit increases at like levels.

超出我們假設的三倍以上的降息更多將對利潤率造成輕微壓力，但也可能導致更有利的經濟活動作為抵消。例如，里奇提到的抵押貸款業務的改善和商業線路利用率的成長目前處於非常低的水平。因此，重申我們先前的評論，我們的目標是繼續在中高個位數範圍內增加貸款百分比，並透過類似水平的存款增加為貸款成長提供資金。

Our pipelines remain solid. And as Dave mentioned, we experienced strong growth at the end of the fourth quarter, which represents good momentum going into the first quarter of 2024. Overall, we're pleased with the 2023 results, and we're encouraged about where we start 2024. I know there'll be some questions. So at this point, I'll pause and we can turn it back to the host.

我們的管道仍然穩固。正如戴夫所提到的，我們在第四季末經歷了強勁的成長，這代表著進入2024 年第一季的良好勢頭。總體而言，我們對2023 年的業績感到滿意，並對2024 年的起點感到鼓舞.我知道會有一些問題。所以在這一點上，我會暫停一下，我們可以將其交回給主持人。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Jon Arfstrom of RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Jon Arfstrom。

Maybe Tim or Dave, just wanted to ask about some of the last comments you made, Tim on your expectations for the margin to remain in the current range. Can you talk about what you guys are doing to protect the margin around these levels? I think about your loan growth guidance and the net interest income growth potential, it seems a little better than peers, particularly your loan growth. But just talk about how you're protecting the margin and your confidence that we can maintain the current range absent greater than three cuts.

也許蒂姆或戴夫只是想問您最後發表的一些評論，蒂姆關於您對利潤率保持在當前範圍內的期望。您能談談你們正在採取哪些措施來保護這些水準附近的利潤嗎？我認為你們的貸款成長指引和淨利息收入成長潛力，似乎比同業好一點，特別是你們的貸款成長。但只需談談您如何保護利潤率以及您對我們能夠在不削減超過三次的情況下維持當前範圍的信心。

Yes. Thanks, Jon, and Dave can add to this. We've talked about the fact that we've got an asset-sensitive loan book that continues to reprice. And at this point, the repricing on our loan book is closely correlated to what we're seeing in terms of the increase in deposit costs. We expect that for at least a short period going forward here that, that will continue to be the case and that the spread between our loans and deposits will be roughly stable. I would characterize stable as plus or minus some number of basis points around 3.6. So we feel pretty good about that, and we've baked in the three cuts starting in June. If those cuts are either deeper or more, then I think we've got probably some pressure on the margin but an offset in other parts of our business.

是的。謝謝，喬恩和戴夫可以補充這一點。我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即我們擁有一個持續重新定價的資產敏感貸款簿。目前，我們貸款帳簿的重新定價與我們所看到的存款成本的增加密切相關。我們預計，至少在未來的短時間內，這種情況將繼續存在，我們的貸款和存款之間的利差將大致穩定。我將穩定描述為在 3.6 左右加減一些基點。所以我們對此感覺非常好，並且我們已經從六月開始進行了三輪削減。如果這些削減幅度更大或更大，那麼我認為我們的利潤率可能會受到一些壓力，但我們業務的其他部分會受到抵消。

Yes. Another thing to focus, I mean, I think that's true. The structure of the balance sheet also helps too, the premium finance book, which is 1/3 of our portfolio sort of lagged on the way up. But if rates go down, it also lags on the way down. So there's benefit to us there.

是的。另一件需要關注的事情，我的意思是，我認為這是真的。資產負債表的結構也有幫助，占我們投資組合 1/3 的優質金融帳簿在上升過程中有些落後。但如果利率下降，下降的速度也會落後。所以這對我們有好處。

As you know, and as we disclosed in the materials, we've got over $6 billion worth of interest rate derivatives that will also assist us if rates fall down. So we were patient on when rates went up to allow the margin to expand. And as we hit the upper 3s, we felt like we should reduce that asset sensitivity and lock in the rates through balance sheet management and derivatives. And we've tried to become relatively neutral on that right now just by using both the structure and the derivatives to be somewhat neutral here.

如您所知，正如我們在材料中所揭露的那樣，我們擁有價值超過 60 億美元的利率衍生品，如果利率下降，它們也將為我們提供幫助。因此，我們對利率何時上漲以允許利潤擴大保持耐心。當我們達到上 3 點時，我們覺得我們應該降低資產敏感性並透過資產負債表管理和衍生性商品鎖定利率。我們現在試圖透過使用結構和衍生性商品來保持相對中立。

So competition is out there. So will depend on what the competition does with loan and deposit pricing if rates move. But right now, the way we look at the world, we think we can hold it pretty tight.

所以競爭是存在的。因此，如果利率發生變化，這將取決於競爭對手對貸款和存款定價的反應。但現在，以我們看待世界的方式，我們認為我們可以緊緊抓住它。

Yes. Okay. That's helpful. Just one more revenue question just on mortgage. You touched on it, but obviously, a tougher revenue quarter for mortgage and I get it. But I think what you're saying is originations look good. Spreads were depressed. And if we don't have the same headwinds on the MSR, maybe we can repeat the kind of quarter that we saw in the first quarter of '23. Is that fair day, maybe even potentially a little better?

是的。好的。這很有幫助。還有一個關於抵押貸款的收入問題。你提到了這一點，但顯然，抵押貸款收入季度更加艱難，我明白了。但我認為你所說的是起源看起來不錯。利差低迷。如果 MSR 沒有遇到同樣的阻力，也許我們可以重複 23 年第一季的情況。那一天公平嗎，甚至可能會更好一些？

Yes. I think that's pretty accurate, Jon. I mean our production revenue was down about $7 million to about $7 million of production revenue and -- but that was higher than about $3 million of production revenue in 2022, and we had $8 million to $9 million of production revenue in '23. So what we're seeing is, right now, at least through the first part of January, applications are ticking up again, not wildly, but they are up from December and November. And clearly, they're up from where we were in January of '23. So I would expect that, that revenue would sort of get back to those levels based on what we know right now.

是的。我認為這是非常準確的，喬恩。我的意思是，我們的製作收入下降了約 700 萬美元至 700 萬美元，但高於 2022 年的約 300 萬美元的製作收入，而 23 年我們的製作收入為 800 萬至 900 萬美元。所以我們現在看到的是，至少在一月上半月，申請數量再次增加，雖然不是很瘋狂，但比 12 月和 11 月有所增加。顯然，他們的水平比 2023 年 1 月的水平有所上升。因此，我預計收入將回到我們目前所知的水平。

Again, it's not going to be a spike up, but I do think we're going to sort of return to where we've been in the previous few quarters. And then hopefully, that if the spring buying season hits that mortgage rates are down a little bit, and hence, one of the reasons some of the MSR values declined a little bit. But hopefully, that decline in rate spurs a little bit of additional home buying activity come March and April.

再說一次，它不會出現飆升，但我確實認為我們會回到前幾季的水平。然後希望，如果春季購買季節到來，抵押貸款利率會稍微下降，因此，這也是一些 MSR 值略有下降的原因之一。但希望利率的下降能刺激三月和四月的一些額外購屋活動。

It will be interesting to watch. Just a little rebound would be good, though, I think, on that.

看起來會很有趣。不過，我認為，在這一點上，只要有一點反彈就很好了。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty of KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。

Maybe a question for Rich. I mean you guys have in the past four quarters, I would say, proactively built the reserve when things are still good. Given where your reserves sit today, I guess, can you just speak to the potential need or desire to build reserves additionally in early 2024? Or is this just kind of get ahead of it and build it while you can.

也許有個問題想問里奇。我想說的是，在過去的四個季度，當情況仍然良好時，你們就主動建立了儲備。我想，鑑於你們目前的儲備狀況，您能否談談在 2024 年初額外建立儲備的潛在需求或願望？或者這只是一種超越它並在你可以的時候建造它。

CECL doesn't necessarily work that way. I mean -- so I mean I -- if you were asking me how the provisioning should work, it wouldn't not necessarily result in the same things that we're getting out of the CECL models because as Dave pointed out, I mean we -- the BAA spreads that the way they reacted, definitely affected what we had to do in the fourth quarter. There's just -- the loan growth affected it, it is not necessarily what Rich Murphy thinks about the quality of the portfolio. I do think that what we've done, as you point out, at the end of last year, this year was pretty material, and I think we have put ourselves in a very good position going forward in the CECL works like it's supposed to work, we're actually prefunding the losses that should accumulate down the road. So actually, I feel really good as to where the allowance is given the shape of our portfolio right now.

CECL 不一定是這樣運作的。我的意思是——所以我的意思是——如果你問我配置應該如何工作，它不一定會產生與我們從CECL 模型中得到的結果相同的結果，因為正如Dave 指出的那樣，我的意思是BAA 表示，他們的反應方式肯定影響了我們在第四季要做的事情。只是——貸款成長影響了它，這並不一定是里奇·墨菲對投資組合品質的看法。我確實認為，正如您所指出的，去年年底我們所做的事情非常重要，而且我認為我們已經使自己處於非常有利的位置，在 CECL 的工作中取得了預期的成果工作中，我們實際上是在為未來可能累積的損失預先準備資金。所以實際上，我對現在我們的投資組合的形式給予津貼的情況感到非常滿意。

And Chris, I can maybe chime in a little bit. I think if you look at it sort of globally without getting too far into the weeds, if you look in the presentation, our criticized assets that we have a special mention in substandard and good, those percentages held very stable. Charge-offs were still low at 14 basis points, a little higher than second quarter, but still pretty low. And we had a little bit more growth in the quarter. All those things weren't too different quarter-to-quarter.

克里斯，我也許可以插話一下。我認為，如果你從全球範圍來看，而不是太深入雜草，如果你看一下演示文稿，我們在不合格和良好的資產中特別提及的批評資產，這些百分比保持非常穩定。沖銷率仍然較低，為 14 個基點，略高於第二季度，但仍相當低。本季我們的成長有所增加。所有這些事情每個季度都沒有太大差異。

So as you look at that increase, I think most of that is the macroeconomic factors and the biggest one that impacted us in our models. And everybody uses different factors for their modeling. But the BAA credit spread has a high correlation to many of our loan lines that we model for and that spread over a quarter period that we look at going out, expanded quite a bit, which had a big impact on our provisioning.

因此，當你看到這一成長時，我認為其中大部分是宏觀經濟因素，也是對我們模型影響最大的因素。每個人都使用不同的因素進行建模。但 BAA 信用利差與我們建模的許多貸款額度具有高度相關性，並且在我們考慮的一個季度內的利差擴大了很多，這對我們的撥備產生了很大影響。

So if the soft landing thoughts gained traction and the consensus view amongst the economists out there are that those spreads should tighten in, then we should see some benefit going forward. But in the fourth quarter, it was worse than the third quarter, and it really generated the extra reserves.

因此，如果軟著陸的想法獲得關注，經濟學家一致認為利差應該收緊，那麼我們應該會看到一些好處。但第四季比第三季還差，確實產生了額外的準備金。

Okay. Great color. Just I know some banks have disclosed which of the Moody's scenarios and the as far as to -- what they weigh. Can you remind us if you've communicated like what scenario is currently factored or the weighed into the scenarios?

好的。顏色很棒。據我所知，一些銀行已經披露了穆迪的哪些情景以及他們的權重。您能否提醒我們，您是否已就目前考慮的場景或對場景的權衡進行了溝通？

Yes. I mean, well, we look at all the Moody's facts. We have to look at some blue-chip other sort of consensus forecasts that are out there. But we are using the base line scenario of Moody's, but various factors out of that baseline scenario.

是的。我的意思是，我們會研究穆迪的所有事實。我們必須看看其他一些藍籌股的共識預測。但我們使用的是穆迪的基準情景，但該基準情景以外的各種因素。

Okay. Maybe just one more and I'll back. The capital outlook, mid to mid- to high single-digit balance sheet growth, your ROE can certainly support more growth. How do we think about perhaps other uses of capital in 2024? Any following in M&A conversations that something you would consider? Any color on capital use would be great.

好的。也許再來一次我就會回來。資本前景、中、中、高個位數的資產負債表成長，你的股本報酬率絕對可以支持更多的成長。我們如何看待 2024 年資本的其他用途？您會考慮以下併購對話嗎？資本使用上的任何顏色都會很棒。

Well, the straightforward part is that, as you said, the earnings of the company should support the loan growth. That's been the case for several quarters now, but isn't a long-term trend for Wintrust, where typically, we've needed to add capital. To the extent, one, we continue to build capital, that's good. And on the M&A front, I would say that the conversations are still active, but there's also not a lot of activity. And I don't know that others who might be in a position that's better to talk about that would think that there's going to be a short-term change there.

嗯，最簡單的部分是，正如你所說，公司的利潤應該支持貸款的成長。這種情況已經持續了幾個季度，但這對 Wintrust 來說並不是長期趨勢，我們通常需要增加資本。某種程度上來說，第一，我們繼續累積資本，這是件好事。在併購方面，我想說，對話仍然活躍，但活動也不多。我不知道其他可能更適合談論這個問題的人會認為那裡會發生短期變化。

Clearly, the rates coming down and help the AOCI situation for a number of people who had impaired either loan books or securities portfolio. But we've been acquisitive in the past. I think we may be in the future, but we're disciplined about it.

顯然，利率下降有助於幫助一些貸款帳目或證券投資組合受損的人改善 AOCI 狀況。但我們過去一直很貪婪。我認為未來我們可能會這樣做，但我們對此很自律。

Next question comes from the line of Casey Haire. Jefferies.

下一個問題來自凱西·海爾（Casey Haire）。傑弗里斯.

I wanted to touch a little bit on the NIM stability guide. Just along those three cuts, what kind of deposit beta you guys are assuming throughout the year if we get those kind of cuts?

我想稍微談談 NIM 穩定性指南。沿著這三項削減，如果我們得到這樣的削減，你們全年假設的存款貝塔值是多少？

Yes. Well, I think generally, we're believing that at this point if the Fed cuts '25 for the non-CD, term CDs that are fixed that we should be able to reduce the rates fairly quickly by 25 basis points. So we're expecting to -- as we increase rates rapidly as rates went up, we're expecting to be able to follow fairly closely with cuts in our money markets and savings and the like.

是的。嗯，我認為一般來說，我們認為，此時如果聯準會將固定的非定期存款和定期定期存款削減 25 個基點，我們應該能夠相當快地將利率降低 25 個基點。因此，我們預計，當我們隨著利率上升而迅速提高利率時，我們預計能夠相當密切地跟隨貨幣市場和儲蓄等的削減。

Casey, the other thing we're seeing, we don't have a huge book of municipal deposits, but some of those have reference rates, if you will. And we're starting to see as a result of what's happening with rates, those index or reference rates come down. And so we've seen some minor benefit on a portion of the book already.

凱西，我們看到的另一件事是，我們沒有大量的市政存款，但如果你願意的話，其中一些有參考利率。我們開始看到，由於利率發生的變化，這些指數或參考利率下降了。因此，我們已經看到本書的一部分有一些小好處。

Okay. Great. And just a question on the fixed rate asset repricing benefit. In the release you guys called out about $8 billion that matures within -- reprices within the next year. Just wondering you have the -- what the yield is on that and what the -- what it could reprice to?

好的。偉大的。只是關於固定利率資產重新定價收益的問題。在新聞稿中，你們提到了大約 80 億美元，並將在明年重新定價。只是想知道您的收益率是多少，以及它可以重新定價到什麼水平？

Yes. No, we haven't disclosed that, Casey. I don't have that handy here right now, but we'll think about putting that in future releases.

是的。不，我們還沒有透露這一點，凱西。我現在沒有方便的地方，但我們會考慮將其放在未來的版本中。

Okay. Great. And just lastly, the loan-to-deposit ratio ticked up a little bit to 93, I think you guys have talked about 85 to 90. I know you're talking about funding loan growth with deposits, but just wondering if there is a -- if there is a hard cap on that loan-to-deposit ratio.

好的。偉大的。最後，貸存比略有上升，達到 93，我想你們已經談到了 85 到 90。我知道你們在談論用存款為貸款增長提供資金，但只是想知道是否有一個——貸存比是否有硬性上限。

No. We think we like it sort of in this range is fine with us. It ticked up a little bit. I would expect it to come down again next quarter. A lot of our loan growth just happened near the end of the quarter. And so we were just trying to match deposit loan growth and there's a lot that flowed in towards the latter part of December. So just a little probably mismatch on the timing of the deposit raising. But I probably expect that to drift back down to 92% again next quarter or so.

不。我們認為我們喜歡這個範圍，對我們來說沒問題。它稍微上漲了一點。我預計下個季度會再次下降。我們的大部分貸款成長都是在本季末發生的。因此，我們只是試圖匹配存款貸款的成長，12 月下旬有大量資金流入。因此，籌集存款的時間可能有點不符。但我可能會預計下個季度左右會再次回落至 92%。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Rulis of D.A. Davidson.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Jeff Rulis。戴維森。

Rich, I wanted to circle back on the co-work. You singled out the one credit of, I think, $17.4 million. What is the total remaining co-work exposure?

里奇，我想回顧一下我們的合作。我想，你挑出了一筆 1,740 萬美元的貸款。剩餘的共同工作風險總額是多少？

Negligible. I think there might be certainly under $5 million. I think pretty well below that. There might be a couple of small pieces, but generally, that we're largely with this issue being largely addressed, I think that large is behind us.

微不足道。我認為肯定會低於 500 萬美元。我認為遠低於這個水平。可能有一些小問題，但總的來說，我們基本上已經解決了這個問題，我認為大問題已經過去了。

Okay. so that was the bulk of it. I guess -- and then just sort of tracking some of those tables towards the back, was that credit identified and sliding from kind of past due?

好的。這就是其中的大部分。我想 - 然後只是跟踪其中一些表格到後面，該信用是否已被識別並從逾期狀態中滑落？

No, loan is current. There. Yes.

不，貸款是有效的。那裡。是的。

Got it. Okay.

知道了。好的。

And maybe on the -- just hopping to expenses. Safe to assume that quarterly FDIC insurance reverts back to the mid-$9 million range. In other words, absent the special assessment, that could be a good run rate for '24. And then kind of the follow-on question to that is just overall expense run rate expectations there would be helpful.

也許只是為了開銷。可以肯定的是，FDIC 季度保險將恢復到 900 萬美元中間的範圍。換句話說，如果沒有特別評估，這對於 24 來說可能是一個不錯的運行率。接下來的問題是整體費用運行率預期會有幫助。

Yes. Well, clearly, we've -- the special assessment is a onetime item. I think towards the end of the -- a couple of years out, depending on how those things settle out, they may true it up a little bit. For now, yes, that number goes away and you'd be in that mid-$9 million range. But that assessment grows as a company grows. So as much as we don't like to pay the assessment, probably that expense number goes up because we're going to grow the franchise over the course of the year. But you can see that it has trended up over time. So we would only expect it to go up with the growth of the balance sheet, though. And then overall expenses is sort of similar to what we've talked about in past.

是的。嗯，很明顯，我們——特別評估是一次性項目。我認為，幾年後，根據這些事情的解決情況，他們可能會稍微修正一下。現在，是的，這個數字消失了，你的收入將在 900 萬美元左右。但這種評估會隨著公司的發展而成長。因此，儘管我們不願意支付評估費用，但費用數字可能會上升，因為我們將在這一年中擴大特許經營權。但您可以看到它隨著時間的推移呈上升趨勢。因此，我們預計它只會隨著資產負債表的增長而上升。整體費用與我們過去討論過的有點相似。

If you sort of look at the non-FDIC impacted run rates of the third and the fourth quarter, those will probably increase slightly in 2024 as we have merit and raises for the employees and the impact of inflation, the impact of the FDIC insurance coverage increasing as we grow, and we continue to invest in our infrastructure, digital and technology wise.

如果您看一下第三季和第四季受非FDIC 影響的運行率，這些運行率可能會在2024 年略有增加，因為我們為員工提供優點和加薪，以及通貨膨脹的影響、FDIC 保險範圍的影響隨著我們的成長而增加，我們繼續投資於我們的基礎設施、數位和技術方面。

But -- so probably that 5% mid-single-digit range is what we would expect using the third and the fourth quarter as a base and if we can grow loans and the franchise in the mid- to high single-digit range, we can get that operating leverage out of the system.

但是，以第三季和第四季為基礎，我們預計5% 的中個位數範圍可能是我們所期望的，如果我們能夠在中個位數到高個位數範圍內增加貸款和特許經營權，我們可以從系統中獲得營運槓桿。

Sounds good. And then the last one, just you kind of touched on it a little bit, but in that mid- to high single-digit loan growth outlook for '24, do you have anything kind of layered in there. Is it sort of a soft landing type assumption? That's a crystal ball type question. But for the bulk of '24, do you have a recessionary or slowdown macro-wise embedded.

聽起來不錯。最後一個，只是你稍微觸及了一點，但在 24 年中高個位數貸款增長前景中，你有什麼分層的東西嗎？這是一種軟著陸類型的假設嗎？這是一個水晶球類型的問題。但在 24 年的大部分時間裡，宏觀經濟是否會陷入衰退或放緩？

Well, my answer to that would be we've fortunately got a diversified and pretty granular loan book. So as we've talked about in the past, the transportation business and some of our customers are already experiencing challenging conditions and others are doing terrific. So I don't know that a technical recession is much going to change the environment. And we think across our loan book, we'll get a pretty balanced level of growth over the year.

嗯，我對此的回答是，幸運的是，我們有一個多元化且相當細化的貸款簿。正如我們過去談到的，運輸業務和我們的一些客戶已經經歷了充滿挑戰的情況，而其他客戶則表現出色。所以我不知道科技衰退會對環境產生多大的改變。我們認為，在我們的貸款帳簿中，我們今年將獲得相當平衡的成長水平。

Yes. It's a great point, Tim, because the -- we have all these different engines that just fire at different times. If you kind of look at where the growth is coming from over this last year, our Life premium finance group essentially had zero or actually negative growth largely because in a higher rate environment, it doesn't work. If you got into a recessionary type situation, and they bring rates down, that product suddenly looks much more attractive and a lot of the loan growth that we had 2 years ago was out of that product.

是的。提姆，這是一個很好的觀點，因為我們擁有所有這些不同的引擎，它們只是在不同的時間啟動。如果你看看去年的成長來自哪裡，我們的人壽保費金融集團基本上為零或實際上是負成長，很大程度上是因為在較高的利率環境中，它不起作用。如果你陷入經濟衰退類型的情況，他們降低了利率，那麼該產品突然看起來更具吸引力，而我們兩年前的大量貸款成長都來自於該產品。

So as different rate cycles move through, they definitely affect different things right now. As we talked about line utilization in a higher rate environment, it really gets impacted. As rates come down, you're going to see the opposite effect. So I think there's going to be some cyclicality, but it's just going to affect different products at different times. So we stay pretty committed to that mid- to high single-digit growth forecast.

因此，隨著不同的利率週期的推移，它們現在肯定會影響不同的事情。當我們談到更高速率環境中的線路利用率時，它確實受到了影響。隨著利率下降，你會看到相反的效果。所以我認為會有一定的周期性，但它只會在不同的時間影響不同的產品。因此，我們仍然致力於中高個位數的成長預測。

Our next question comes from the line of Brandon King of Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Brandon King。

So I had a question on deposits. I noticed most of the growth in the quarter came from money market and savings accounts. And I'm wondering if -- is that the expectation going forward where we will see most of the deposit growth?

所以我有一個關於存款的問題。我注意到本季的大部分成長來自貨幣市場和儲蓄帳戶。我想知道這是否是我們將看到大部分存款成長的預期？

Well, we think the mix is somewhat stabilized. But with these higher rates than we had a year or 18 months ago, clearly, the interest-bearing products are more attractive to our clients. And so I think you're going to see money market and CD growth that you wouldn't have seen a couple of years ago. And we're working hard and hopeful that the noninterest-bearing portion continues to stay reasonably stable around 23%.

嗯，我們認為這種組合已經穩定下來。但由於利率高於一年前或 18 個月前，顯然，生息產品對我們的客戶更具吸引力。因此，我認為您將會看到幾年前看不到的貨幣市場和定期存款成長。我們正在努力工作，並希望無息部分繼續保持在 23% 左右的合理穩定水平。

Okay. And is part of that strategy also sort of anticipating Fed easing cycle as maybe those money market accounts, maybe easier to lower those rates I guess, faster than if you did more of a CD funding?

好的。該策略的一部分是否也是預期聯準會的寬鬆週期，因為也許這些貨幣市場帳戶可能更容易降低利率，我猜，比你進行更多定期存款融資更快？

Well, I think what you said is correct that the money market accounts would probably move more quickly than some of the other interest-bearing products. But we offer a wide set of options to our customers, and they select what they believe to be the best fit for them. So we are seeing more CD-related activity as you can get rates in the 5% range. Whether that will continue as rates come down, you may get people trying to kind of lock in those levels.

嗯，我認為你所說的是正確的，即貨幣市場帳戶可能會比其他一些生息產品移動得更快。但我們為客戶提供了廣泛的選擇，他們會選擇他們認為最適合他們的選擇。因此，我們看到更多與 CD 相關的活動，因為您可以獲得 5% 範圍內的利率。隨著利率下降，這種情況是否會持續下去，人們可能會試圖鎖定這些水準。

Okay. And then another question. I know I appreciate the commentary on the reserve increase. But I did notice the reserve increase was primarily driven in the C&I category. So just wondering if you could speak to just the health of your C&I customers and credit trends there as opposed to a lot of attention on the CRE space.

好的。然後還有一個問題。我知道我很欣賞有關準備金增加的評論。但我確實注意到準備金增加主要是由工商業類別推動的。因此，我想知道您是否可以只談論 C&I 客戶的健康狀況和信貸趨勢，而不是對 CRE 領域的大量關注。

Yes. I think a couple of things that I would point to. One is, as we noted earlier that the level of classified assets remains pretty consistent. So we try to be very proactive on our risk ratings. And if you start to see special mention classified assets start to move up, I think that would be a pretty direct reflection. But more anecdotally, we spent a lot of time talking to our customers about where their business is at.

是的。我想我要指出一些事情。一是，正如我們之前指出的，分類資產的水平仍然相當一致。因此，我們嘗試在風險評級方面非常積極主動。如果你開始看到特別提及的分類資產開始上升，我認為這將是一個非常直接的反映。但更有趣的是，我們花了很多時間與客戶討論他們的業務狀況。

And I would say, generally speaking, people still feel like that top line revenue number is holding together pretty well. And that solves a lot of problems. Obviously, higher borrowing costs can affect them. clearly, the economy, I think, has slowed a little bit, and so that affected them. But while it may not be as rosy when you had zero interest rates and the economy was just really clicking along, it doesn't feel that bad for most of our C&I customers. I think that they still feel pretty optimistic about where their overall revenues are coming from and where those levels will be. I think labor has probably become less of a concern for them and just overall input costs are -- have stabilized. So I would say just net-net, I think they feel still pretty good.

我想說的是，一般來說，人們仍然覺得頂線收入數字保持得很好。這解決了很多問題。顯然，較高的借貸成本會對他們產生影響。顯然，我認為經濟已經放緩了一點，這對他們產生了影響。但是，雖然當利率為零且經濟發展良好時，情況可能不會那麼樂觀，但對於我們的大多數工商業客戶來說，情況並沒有那麼糟糕。我認為他們仍然對整體收入的來源和水平感到非常樂觀。我認為勞動力對他們來說可能不再那麼重要了，整體投入成本已經穩定下來。所以我想說只是net-net，我覺得他們的感覺還蠻不錯的。

Next question, which comes from the line of Ben Gerlinger of Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的本傑林格 (Ben Gerlinger)。

So I'm going to ask a question. I know you're probably going to be a little annoyed, but I'm going to ask it anyway. So when you think about 2024, what I'm getting at is kind of mid-single digits, maybe upper middle single digits loan growth, deposit growth, it's called a flat margin at the -- like you said, three cuts, kind of the 360 range. If the market has a little bit more -- probably see a little bit pressure on that. And that's largely just because of back book repricing on some CRE and then premium finance still has a little bit of tail left in it. But as we get towards the end of the year and possibly into '25, if there is a four rate cut environment, do you think is there any incremental pressure because -- I mean, I get that the premium finance probably rolls over and sort of work against you, but you also have indexed deposit costs. I'm just trying to think -- it's a moving target, obviously, but just any incremental thoughts on how you might exit the year into '25. And I get you have a good '25 guidance at all. So just kind of finger in the air, that would be really helpful.

所以我要問一個問題。我知道你可能會有點生氣，但我還是要問。因此，當你想到2024 年時，我得到的是中個位數，也許是中個位數的貸款成長、存款成長，這被稱為利潤率持平——就像你說的，三次削減，有點像360度範圍。如果市場有更多一點——可能會看到一點壓力。這很大程度上只是因為一些商業房地產的重新定價，然後溢價融資仍然留下了一點尾巴。但隨著我們接近年底，可能進入 25 年，如果有四次降息環境，您認為是否會出現任何增量壓力，因為——我的意思是，我知道溢價融資可能會滾動併排序工作量對您不利，但您也有指數存款成本。我只是想思考——顯然，這是一個不斷變化的目標，但只是關於如何在 25 年結束這一年的任何增量想法。我知道你有一個很好的 25 年指導。因此，只需將手指放在空中，這將非常有幫助。

Well, a couple of things. To be clear, we have very few actual index deposit products. So while the municipal rates, for example, that I mentioned earlier are tied to some reference rates, they're not contractual. So other than our CD book, we're largely pricing at our discretion. As we talked about it, if you get more rate cuts or faster rate cuts or you get 50, they slightly would pressure our margin beyond the assumed three cuts, but our mortgage business would likely perform better and to Rich's point, we're at very low levels in terms of utilization on lines right now, and we would expect to see some rebound there as rates come down. So while there might be some pressure on the margin as rates continue to drop, we have other aspects of our business that we think will perform well. So that's kind of the best way we're looking at that and why we value the diversified businesses as an important part of our model.

嗯，有幾件事。需要明確的是，我們實際的指數存款產品很少。因此，雖然我之前提到的市政費率與一些參考費率掛鉤，但它們不是合約性的。因此，除了我們的 CD 書外，我們很大程度上是根據自己的判斷定價的。正如我們所討論的，如果你得到更多的降息或更快的降息，或者你得到50，他們會對我們的利潤率造成輕微的壓力，超出假設的三次降息，但我們的抵押貸款業務可能會表現更好，就里奇的觀點而言，我們處於目前線路利用率非常低，我們預計隨著費率下降，線路利用率會出現一些反彈。因此，儘管隨著利率持續下降，利潤率可能會面臨一些壓力，但我們認為業務的其他方面將表現良好。因此，這是我們看待這個問題的最佳方式，也是我們重視多元化業務作為我們模式的重要組成部分的原因。

Yes, that's great color. It's a great point, too, that the fee income aspect will definitely kind of pick up some of the slot or if not all the slots, goes with the softer spread revenue. Can you just remind us any sort of kind of efficiency ratio on mortgage? I guess that we haven't seen a robust mortgage market. I'm just trying to think like if that does start to turn back on, expenses are also obviously going to go up as well. So I'm just trying to match the two if we do see a rebound in mortgage.

是的，那是很棒的顏色。這也是一個很好的觀點，即費用收入方面肯定會佔據一些位置，或者如果不是全部位置，也會伴隨著點差收入的疲軟。您能否提醒我們抵押貸款的效率比率？我想我們還沒有看到強勁的抵押貸款市場。我只是想，如果這種情況確實開始恢復，費用顯然也會增加。因此，如果我們確實看到抵押貸款出現反彈，我只是嘗試將兩者相匹配。

Yes. I mean it sort of depends on how hot the market gets and how wide gross margin gain on sale margins are. But I generally think of the efficiency ratio in the mortgage business to be about an 80% efficiency ratio business. So...

是的。我的意思是，這在某種程度上取決於市場的火熱程度以及銷售利潤率的毛利率增幅有多大。但我一般認為抵押貸款業務的效率約為 80%。所以...

Got you. That's really helpful. Appreciate the color. It looks like you guys have just a pure growth horsepower a year. It's good that the margin should stay roughly flat. So I look forward to it.

明白你了。這真的很有幫助。欣賞顏色。看起來你們一年只有純增長馬力。利潤應該保持大致持平是件好事。所以我很期待。

Our next question comes from the line of Terry McEvoy of Stephens Inc.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stephens Inc. 的 Terry McEvoy。

Dave, and I'm pretty sure it's in the appendix. But what are the hedges costing you each quarter, like $24 million comes to mind. But do you have that number handy? And what is that -- what would that be if we get three rate cuts and when does that turn from a headwind to a tailwind?

戴夫，我很確定它在附錄。但每季的對沖成本是多少，例如 2,400 萬美元。但你手邊有這個號碼嗎？那是什麼——如果我們進行三次降息，那會是什麼？什麼時候這會從逆風轉變為順風？

Yes. Well, so it's -- I think it was about 19 basis points of impact to the margin, and it's about $8 million a month, so $24 million a quarter. Right now, if SOFR moves one way or the other, that would change that. But we put a slide in our presentation deck that gives all the details of what the particular strike rates are but we're receiving fixed and paying variable. So if SOFR goes down at all, even though we may not hit the strike rate, we'll get benefit because we'll pay less. So that if $24 million a quarter of SOFR comes down, will decline by what we pay by 25 basis points. So it's effectively locking in a $6 billion worth of our variable rate portfolio into more of a fixed rate scenario that center SOFR based.

是的。嗯，我認為這對利潤率的影響約為 19 個基點，每月約為 800 萬美元，即每季 2,400 萬美元。現在，如果 SOFR 以某種方式採取行動，那將會改變這種狀況。但是我們在簡報中放了一張幻燈片，其中提供了特定罷工率的所有詳細信息，但我們收到的是固定的和付費的變數。因此，如果 SOFR 完全下降，即使我們可能沒有達到罷工率，我們也會受益，因為我們支付的費用會減少。因此，如果每季 SOFR 下降 2,400 萬美元，我們所支付的金額將下降 25 個基點。因此，它有效地將我們價值 60 億美元的可變利率投資組合鎖定在以 SOFR 為中心的固定利率方案中。

And then are you -- or how are you using loan modifications within commercial real estate and how are you defining a market rate if you are using modifications?

那麼您是—或者您如何在商業房地產中使用貸款修改？如果您使用修改，您如何定義市場利率？

Yes. I mean modifications are a part of the business. So -- but we don't -- if a loan is seriously affected by lease rates or vacancy rising rates, I mean. And you can't just hide a problem with a loan modification. So similar to the one that we just identified that loan is current. But at some point, you have to look at that and say, is there really going to be the opportunity to change the income stream or change the cash flow with the modification. Generally speaking, you really have to be honest, and the borrower and the bank have to be honest about whether that's going to solve the problem. In a case like that, it's so challenging that it's not.

是的。我的意思是修改是業務的一部分。所以，我的意思是，如果貸款受到租賃率或空置率上升的嚴重影響，但我們不這樣做。而且你不能僅僅透過貸款修改來隱藏問題。與我們剛剛確定的貸款非常相似。但在某些時候，你必須審視這一點並說，是否真的有機會透過修改來改變收入流或現金流。一般來說，你必須誠實，借款人和銀行也必須誠實地判斷這是否能解決問題。在這樣的情況下，它是如此具有挑戰性，以至於事實並非如此。

So we do use modifications, but it's really got to be a situation where it's the difference between the targeted policy-driven cash flow coverage, and the actual cash flow coverage are relatively close, and you're just working with them to maybe extend amortization a little bit or something like that to give them a little bit of relief to bridge the gap. But generally speaking, I mean, we don't use modifications all that often. And when we do, we're pretty much -- the interest rate is pretty much a market rate.

因此，我們確實使用了修改，但確實存在這樣一種情況：目標政策驅動的現金流覆蓋範圍與實際現金流覆蓋範圍之間的差異相對接近，而您只是與他們合作以延長攤銷期限一點點或類似的東西可以給他們一點緩解，以彌補差距。但一般來說，我的意思是，我們並不經常使用修改。當我們這樣做時，我們的利率幾乎就是市場利率。

Our next question comes from the line of Brody Preston of UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布羅迪普雷斯頓。

Good morning, everyone. I just wanted to get a little bit more granular, Dave, on the loan yields. I understand the margin commentary that you gave, but I wanted to kind of ask you, just given the premium finance books, how you'd expect the loan yields to trend in the middle part of the year just given the moves in the 1-year CMT that have already occurred.

大家，早安。戴夫，我只是想更詳細地了解貸款收益率。我理解您給出的保證金評論，但我想問您，鑑於優質金融書籍，您預計貸款收益率在今年中期的趨勢如何，考慮到 1-已經發生的年份 CMT。

Yes. Well, the book that's tied to the 1-year CMT is the life insurance premium finance book. And so as you're alluding to, the rate now is very similar to the rate a year ago. So the benefit from that book is pretty baked in right now. So the repricing on those should stay relatively the same. The commercial premium finance book, however, is still is repricing over time. And although those are not indexed to the prime rate, that they have pretty good correlation to the primary because we generally are adjusting our rates when the Fed is adjusting and therefore, most people are adjusting prime. And if you go back a year, Prime was 7.5% at the end of 2022 and 8.5% at the end of this year. So there's another 100 basis points of repricing on that portion of the book. And then we have the fixed rate commercial real estate loan book that we have out there, some of that we will reprice to.

是的。嗯，與 1 年 CMT 相關的書是人壽保險保費財務書。正如您所提到的，現在的利率與一年前的利率非常相似。所以這本書的好處現在已經很明顯了。因此，這些產品的重新定價應該保持相對相同。然而，商業保費融資書籍仍在隨著時間的推移而重新定價。儘管這些沒有與最優惠利率掛鉤，但它們與主要利率有很好的相關性，因為我們通常在聯準會調整時調整我們的利率，因此，大多數人都在調整最優惠利率。如果你回顧一年，2022 年底 Prime 的比例為 7.5%，今年底為 8.5%。因此，本書的這部分還有另外 100 個基點的重新定價。然後我們有固定利率商業房地產貸款簿，其中一些我們將重新定價。

Got it. And the stuff that is -- the stuff that's fixed rate that's not the like premium finance related at all. How much of that do you expect to reprice on a quarterly basis over the next year?

知道了。那些固定利率的東西根本不像高級金融那麼相關。您預計明年每季重新定價多少？

Well, we've got $8 billion in total. But if you look at that, the big portion of that is our premium finance portfolio. It's $6.8 billion. So we get another $1.2 billion of commercial and commercial real estate type of loans that will reprice over the course of the year. And I'd probably just say it's ratable. I don't think we have any seasonality per se to that portfolio.

嗯，我們總共有 80 億美元。但如果你看一下，其中很大一部分是我們的優質金融投資組合。是 68 億美元。因此，我們將獲得另外 12 億美元的商業和商業房地產類型貸款，這些貸款將在一年內重新定價。我可能只是說它是可評價的。我認為我們的投資組合本身沒有任何季節性。

At this level, it is generally slightly helpful as they reprice.

在這個水平上，當他們重新定價時，它通常會稍微有幫助。

Yes. Understood. Is there -- is it fair to assume when I look at that kind of 1- to 5-year bucket as well that it's a similarly ratable repricing there? I'm just trying to make sure I get their cadence correct through 2025.

是的。明白了。當我看到這種 1 至 5 年期的情況時，是否可以公平地假設那裡也有類似的可重新定價？我只是想確保到 2025 年我都能保持正確的節奏。

Yes. We sort of looked at this. We don't have any maturity walls coming from that you can say, "Oh my gosh, when we get out 18 months, we're going to have just a boatload repricing or don't get any repricing for 3 or 4 years." So it's fairly ratable.

是的。我們有點看了一下這個。我們沒有任何成熟度牆，你可以說，“天哪，當我們 18 個月後，我們將進行大量重新定價，或者在 3 到 4 年內不會進行任何重新定價。 ”所以還是比較值得評價的。

Got it. On the NIBs you guys kind of bucked the trend versus the group this quarter. A lot of other banks have actually seen a reacceleration in NIB outflow. I wanted to ask you specifically if there was anything that drove the strength in the fourth quarter on a period-end basis, like if there's any chunky kind of deposits that came from institutional type money.

知道了。在 NIB 上，本季你們的表現有點逆勢而上。許多其他銀行實際上已經看到NIB 流出再次加速。我想具體問您是否有任何因素在期末基礎上推動了第四季度的強勢，例如是否有來自機構類型資金的大量存款。

No, not significantly. I mean we have large flows at the end of the year as people position their balance sheets. But we've worked really hard on the deposit side of the equation to continue to grow clients and we are hopeful that the 23% turns into a stable level for us. And our team continues to add commercial clients that have noninterest-bearing deposits. And treasury services and use other products and services we offer. So it's sort of a function of building the franchise.

不，不顯著。我的意思是，隨著人們調整資產負債表，我們在年底會有大量資金流動。但我們在存款方面非常努力，以繼續增加客戶，我們希望 23% 能成為我們的穩定水平。我們的團隊不斷增加擁有無利息存款的商業客戶。以及財務服務並使用我們提供的其他產品和服務。所以這是建立特許經營權的一種功能。

Yes. That's the way I would look at it, too. I mean, Rich talked about there's a little less line usage. So some of those people that maybe would have drawn on the line of use some of their noninterest-bearing deposits. And maybe that's a reason why you're seeing some of that industry-wide. But as Tim said, if we continue to grow the franchise and add customers that right now is offsetting any of that additional leakage and we're being able to hold it pretty well. And it's been pretty stable on an average basis for the last couple of quarters. So we're hopeful that we can hold it in there.

是的。我也是這麼看的。我的意思是，里奇談到線路使用量有所減少。因此，有些人可能會使用他們的一些無息存款。也許這就是為什麼你會在整個行業中看到一些這樣的情況的原因。但正如蒂姆所說，如果我們繼續擴大特許經營權並增加客戶，現在就可以抵消任何額外的洩漏，並且我們能夠很好地保持它。過去幾季的平均水平相當穩定。因此，我們希望能夠將其保留在那裡。

Great. And then just last one for me is just on the wealth business. There's a pretty decent pickup in the assets under administration this quarter after they were flat last quarter. I just wanted to ask what caused that to occur?

偉大的。對我來說，最後一項就是關於財富業務。繼上季持平後，本季管理資產出現了相當不錯的成長。我只是想問一下是什麼原因導致了這種情況的發生？

For the revenue to be flattish, you're saying?

你是說收入持平？

Just the growth, I think.

我想，只是成長。

No. The AUA was up from $44.7 billion to $47.1 billion.

不會。AUA 從 447 億美元增加到 471 億美元。

Yes. A couple of things with that. Some of the brokerage accounts grew a little bit. We also -- our MaxSafe product that we have, the way we operate that is that, that works through our trust company as a fiduciary account. So those get included. So a little bit of growth in that area and just a little bit spread out in other places. So nothing significant per se in any one chunky sort of deal. Yes. And also in that number, as we note in the press release, our investment portfolio is also managed out of our wealth management area and included in those assets under management and those ticked up a little bit.

是的。有幾件事與此相關。部分經紀帳戶略有成長。我們也有－我們擁有的 MaxSafe 產品，我們的運作方式是，透過我們的信託公司作為信託帳戶運作。所以這些都被包括在內。因此，該地區有一點增長，其他地方也有一點擴展。因此，任何一筆大宗交易本身都沒有什麼重要意義。是的。正如我們在新聞稿中指出的那樣，在這個數字中，我們的投資組合也不在我們的財富管理領域進行管理，並包含在管理資產和略有上升的資產中。

Got it. Okay. So that -- the move higher shouldn't necessarily result in a similar move higher in revenue for next quarter?

知道了。好的。那麼，上漲不一定會導致下個季度的營收出現類似的上漲？

Some of it is based on beginning of quarter asset valuations versus daily or at end of quarter. So you might see a little bit of pickup there.

其中一些是基於季度初的資產估值與每日或季末的資產估值。所以你可能會看到一些回升。

I would now like to turn the conference back to Tim Crane for closing remarks. Sir?

現在我想請提姆·克蘭 (Tim Crane) 致閉幕詞。先生？

All right. Great. Thank you, everybody. As you can tell, we're generally pleased with the 2023 results, but we've moved on. We've got an eager team that is trying to win clients and new business for the bank every day, and we appreciate your time and your interest in Wintrust. So we'll be working hard, and we'll talk to you in a quarter. Thanks, everybody.

好的。偉大的。謝謝大家。如您所知，我們總體上對 2023 年的結果感到滿意，但我們已經繼續前進。我們擁有一支充滿熱情的團隊，每天都在努力為銀行贏得客戶和新業務，我們感謝您抽出寶貴的時間以及對 Wintrust 的興趣。因此，我們將努力工作，我們將在一個季度內與您交談。謝謝大家。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。