Welltower Inc (WELL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Welltower Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Please note that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加 Welltower 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。請注意，此通話正在錄音。 （操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Matthew McQueen, General Counsel. You may begin your conference.

我現在將把電話轉給總法律顧問馬修麥奎因。您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, and good morning. As a reminder, certain statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements in the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Although Welltower believes any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, the company can give no assurances that its projected results will be attained. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are detailed in the company's filings with the SEC.

謝謝你，早安。提醒一下，本次電話會議中所做的某些陳述可能被視為《私人證券訴訟改革法》意義上的前瞻性陳述。儘管 Welltower 認為任何前瞻性陳述均基於合理假設，但該公司不能保證其預期結果將會實現。該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細介紹了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異的因素。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Shankh for his remarks.

接下來，我將把電話轉交給尚赫，聽他的演講。

Thank you, Matt, and good morning, everyone. I will review our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results and describe high-level business trends and our capital allocation priorities. John will provide an update on the operational performance of our senior housing and outpatient medical portfolios, and progress on our operating platform buildout. Nikhil will give you an update on the investment landscape. And Tim will walk you through our Triple-Net businesses, balance sheet highlights and 2024 full year guidance.

謝謝你，馬特，大家早安。我將回顧我們第四季和 2023 年全年的業績，並描述高層業務趨勢和我們的資本配置優先事項。約翰將提供有關我們高級住房和門診醫療組合營運績效的最新信息，以及我們營運平台建設的進展。尼基爾將為您介紹投資前景的最新情況。 Tim 將引導您了解我們的三網業務、資產負債表要點和 2024 年全年指導。

First, as I reflect back on '23, it was a year of solid execution across the board with significant progress achieved in all aspects of the business. Operating performance far surpassed our initial expectations. We had a great year, a record-setting year in terms of capital deployment, and we meaningfully strengthened our balance sheet and liquidity profile.

首先，回顧 23 年，這是全面執行紮實的一年，業務的各個方面都取得了重大進展。經營業績遠遠超出我們最初的預期。我們度過了美好的一年，在資本部署方面創紀錄的一年，我們有意義地加強了我們的資產負債表和流動性狀況。

Just as importantly, perhaps is the groundwork we laid to sustain this level of performance and continue to deliver outsized growth not only in 2024, but also well into the future. This includes the considerable progress John and his team have made on the buildout of our operating platform, which we continue to believe will transform the industry. On top of that, as we have discussed in recent quarters, we have executed a number of operator transitions across all our geographies as well as converted a handful of properties from triple-net to RIDEA, all should bear fruit later this year and in 2025. We finished the year strong with significant momentum to set us up for another year of solid performance in 2024.

同樣重要的是，這也許是我們為維持這一業績水平並繼續實現超額增長而奠定的基礎，不僅在 2024 年，而且在未來很長一段時間內。這包括約翰和他的團隊在建立我們的營運平台方面取得的巨大進展，我們仍然相信這將改變整個產業。最重要的是，正如我們在最近幾季所討論的那樣，我們已經在所有地區執行了一系列營運商轉型，並將少數物業從三網轉換為RIDEA，所有這些都應該在今年晚些時候和2025 年取得成果. 我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年，為我們在 2024 年再創穩健業績奠定了基礎。

In terms of our senior housing operating portfolio, I was particularly encouraged by the occupancy growth in fourth quarter, which is seasonally not the strongest period. The portfolio saw 110 basis points of sequential occupancy gains, which translate into 330 basis points year-over-year occupancy growth. And the 330 basis points year-over-year occupancy growth is by far the highest level we have ever achieved in the fourth quarter of any year in our recorded history.

就我們的高級住房營運投資組合而言，我對第四季度的入住率成長感到特別鼓舞，從季節性來看，這並不是最強勁的時期。此投資組合的入住率連續成長 110 個基點，相當於入住率年增 330 個基點。 330 個基點的入住率年增率是迄今為止我們有記錄以來任何一年第四季取得的最高水準。

Just as compelling is that looking at the intra-quarter trends, year-over-year occupancy growth strengthened each month, which is unusual given the aforementioned seasonality of the business. We're also pleased with the rate growth achieved by our managers.

同樣引人注目的是，從季度內趨勢來看，每個月的年比入住率成長都在加強，考慮到上述業務的季節性，這是不尋常的。我們也對我們的經理所取得的成長率感到滿意。

During our last call, I described to you that one of our largest operator, Sunrise, pulled forward Jan 1, 2023 rate increases into 4Q 2022. This year, they have returned to their historical cadence of Jan 1 rate increases. While this distorts our show portfolios reported Q4 2023 RevPOR, or the unit revenue, the rest of the portfolio delivered RevPOR growth of 6.8%, reflecting the underlying fundamental strength of the business. While our 2024 guidance assumes some diminution of RevPOR growth from full year of 2023 levels of 6.6%, we still expect another year of near double-digit top line growth as occupancy continues to build at a solid pace. 4Q 2023 same-store ExpPOR our or expense per occupied room grew 1.7% year-over-year, the lowest level of growth in Welltower's recorded history, driven by 4Q 2023 same-store compensation per occupied room growth, which grew 1.9% year-over-year, also the lowest growth in Welltower's recorded history.

在我們上次的電話會議中，我向您介紹了我們最大的運營商之一Sunrise 將2023 年1 月1 日的加息時間推遲到2022 年第四季度。今年，他們恢復了1 月1 日加息的歷史節奏。雖然這扭曲了我們報告的 2023 年第四季度 RevPOR（即單位收入）的展會投資組合，但投資組合的其餘部分實現了 6.8% 的 RevPOR 增長，反映了業務的潛在基本實力。儘管我們的 2024 年指引假設 RevPOR 成長較 2023 年全年 6.6% 的水平有所下降，但隨著入住率繼續穩步增長，我們仍預計明年將實現接近兩位數的收入增長。 2023 年第四季同店每間入住房間費用年增1.7%，這是Welltower 有史以來的最低增長水平，這是受到2023 年第四季度每間入住房間同店補償增長（同比增長1.9%）的推動。同比成長也是 Welltower 有史以來的最低成長率。

While the normalization of agency labor usage is helping to dampen ComPOR growth. We are also seeing some good trends in the salary and the wages line. All of these trends are resulting in a favorable spread between RevPOR growth and ExpPOR growth. The powerful combination of this revenue backdrop with continued margin expansion that should be expected due to the high operating leverage inherent in the business leaves us feeling very strongly about our 2024 NOI growth setup.

雖然機構勞動力使用的正常化正在幫助抑制 ComPOR 的成長。我們也看到薪資和薪資線方面出現了一些良好的趨勢。所有這些趨勢都導致 RevPOR 成長和 ExpPOR 成長之間存在有利的差距。這種收入背景與由於業務固有的高營運槓桿而預期的持續利潤率擴張的強大結合，讓我們對 2024 年 NOI 成長設定感到非常強烈。

Tim will give you our detailed buildup of our NOI guidance based on our current assumptions, plus please understand that we have no false pretense about perfectly knowing what the business will look like as we move through the years, particularly the all-important summer months, but we are optimistic given the demand supply backdrop, which improves by the day and the rising system-wide occupancy as well as the early success we have seen in John's operating platform buildout.

蒂姆將根據我們當前的假設向您提供我們的NOI 指南的詳細構建，此外，請理解，我們並沒有假裝完全了解隨著時間的推移，尤其是最重要的夏季月份，業務將會是什麼樣子，但鑑於需求供應背景日益改善、全系統入住率不斷上升，以及我們在約翰的營運平台擴建中看到的早期成功，我們感到樂觀。

While 24.4% NOI growth last year for our SHO portfolio alone was very encouraging, I'm extremely pleased with our capital allocation activities as well. In 2023 was the most active year in our history in terms of raising and deploying capital. We completed almost $6 billion of investments in the year, nearly half of which closed in Q4 alone. While I won't get into the specific transactions, I will mention that they share some common characteristics.

雖然去年光是我們的 SHO 投資組合 24.4% 的 NOI 成長就非常令人鼓舞，但我對我們的資本配置活動也非常滿意。 2023 年是我們歷史上籌集和部署資本最活躍的一年。我們今年完成了近 60 億美元的投資，其中近一半在第四季就完成了。雖然我不會討論具體的交易，但我會提到它們有一些共同的特徵。

First, we generally grew with our existing operating partners in their respective markets. Second, we acquired assets at a significant discount to replacement cost from core funds, PE funds, pension funds and financial institutions who were seeking liquidity. We also added a couple of new operating partners along the way who I envision us growing with in the near term. More to come on this topic as we progress through the year.

首先，我們通常與現有的營運合作夥伴在各自的市場上共同成長。其次，我們以低於重置成本的大幅折扣從核心基金、私募基金、退休基金和尋求流動性的金融機構收購資產。我們還在此過程中增加了一些新的營運合作夥伴，我預計我們在短期內將與他們一起成長。隨著這一年的進展，我們將會有更多關於這個主題的內容。

The torrid pace of investment activity in Q4 has continued with 2024 starting off with a bang. In fact, I do not recall having ever been this busy in first quarter on the deal front. While we have renegotiated documents and structure to leverage, it is great trust that we have built with our 2023 counterparties that will make follow-on transaction easier to execute. These counterparties also experienced what our promise always is that we honor our handshake irrespective of circumstances as evidenced by the continued -- our continued execution through this historic capital market volatility in the fall and winter of 2023. They know that we remain the clean [shirt] in an industry where retrading counterparties is the norm. It is interesting and perhaps coincidental, that we're experiencing another bout of market volatility after a few weeks have come. Over the past few weeks, another regional banking crisis driven by U.S. CRE debt appears to be rearing its ugly head from New York to Tokyo to Germany.

2024 年伊始，第四季的投資活動持續保持迅猛勢頭。事實上，我不記得第一季在交易方面曾經如此忙碌。雖然我們已經重新談判了文件和結構以利用，但我們與 2023 年的交易對手建立了極大的信任，這將使後續交易更容易執行。這些交易對手也體驗到了我們一貫的承諾，即無論情況如何，我們都會兌現我們的握手，這一點從我們在2023 年秋季和冬季這場歷史性資本市場波動中的持續執行中就可以看出。他們知道我們仍然是乾淨的[襯衫] ] 在一個重新交易對手方已成為常態的行業中。有趣的是，也許是巧合的是，幾週後我們正在經歷另一輪市場波動。過去幾週，由美國商業房地產債務引發的另一場地區性銀行業危機似乎正從紐約、東京到德國抬頭。

We are currently staring at approximately $16 billion senior housing loans maturing in the next 24 months in the U.S., which dwarfs roughly about a couple of billion dollars of agency financing completed in 2023. This should generate significant equity as well as private credit opportunity for us. Suffice to say, our near-term capital deployment pipeline remains robust, highly visible and actionable and squarely within our circle of competence, which -- where we can bet with house odds rather than gamblers' odds.

目前，我們預計美國將有約160 億美元的高級房屋貸款在未來24 個月內到期，這比2023 年完成的約數十億美元的機構融資相形見絀。這將為我們帶來大量股權和私人信貸機會。可以說，我們的近期資本部署管道仍然強勁、高度可見和可操作，並且完全在我們的能力範圍內，我們可以用賭場賠率而不是賭徒賠率下注。

Along with what we have already done in 2023, these acquisitions that carry an attractive basis, operational upside and significant value add from Welltower's operating platform, we have -- we will have a meaningful impact on what remains a true [NorthStar], long-term compounding of par share value of our existing shareholders.

除了我們在2023 年已經完成的工作之外，這些收購具有有吸引力的基礎、營運優勢以及Welltower 營運平台的顯著附加價值，我們已經——我們將對真正的[NorthStar] 產生有意義的影響，長期－我們現有股東的面額的期限複利。

With that, I will hand the call over to John. John?

這樣，我會將電話轉交給約翰。約翰？

Thank you, Shankh. Although most of my time at Welltower I spent doing the Welltower hustle, getting up every day, identifying and aggressively pursuing the opportunities that exist focused on improving the customer and employee experience. I want to take a moment and reflect on how proud I am of the Welltower team for its success in doing just that, improving the customer and employee experience, which in part is reflected by our performance.

謝謝你，尚赫。儘管我在 Welltower 的大部分時間都在做 Welltower 的忙碌，每天起床，識別並積極尋求現有的機會，重點是改善客戶和員工體驗。我想花點時間反思一下，我對 Welltower 團隊在這方面的成功感到多麼自豪，他們改善了客戶和員工體驗，這在一定程度上反映在我們的表現上。

Focusing on senior housing for a moment. The Welltower team consists of our top operators and all of their employees, our key vendors as well as the Welltower employees. We have all worked together to improve the customer and employee experience, which has resulted in fantastic results. On top of the industry-leading senior housing same-store NOI growth for the full year of 2022 of 20.1%, our full year 2023 senior housing NOI growth was 24.4%. Often on earnings calls, you hear the words tough comps. That's certainly true here. Yet our guidance for 2024 same-store senior housing NOI growth at the midpoint is 18%. Therefore, based on our 2 full years that are completed and in the record books, 2022 and 2023 and our guidance of 18% in 2024, that indicates that the 3-year compounded growth of our same-store senior housing NOI in 2024 will be over 75%. That's something to reflect upon. Thank you, Welltower team.

暫時關注高級住房。 Welltower 團隊由我們的頂級營運商及其所有員工、我們的主要供應商以及 Welltower 員工組成。我們共同努力改善客戶和員工體驗，並取得了令人矚目的成果。除了業界領先的 2022 年全年老年住宅同店 NOI 成長 20.1% 之外，我們的 2023 年全年老年住房 NOI 成長率為 24.4%。在財報電話會議上，你常會聽到「艱難的競爭」這個詞。這裡確實如此。然而，我們對 2024 年同店老年住房 NOI 成長的中位數指引為 18%。因此，根據我們已完成並記錄在冊的 2022 年和 2023 年以及我們 2024 年 18% 的指導，這表明 2024 年我們同店老年住房 NOI 的 3 年複合增長率將為超過75%。這是值得反思的事。謝謝你，Welltower 團隊。

Now back to our business. Our portfolio generated 12.5% same-store NOI growth over the prior year's quarter, led by the senior housing operating portfolio with 23.7% year-over-year growth. The outpatient medical portfolio produced same-store portfolio growth of 2.8% for the fourth quarter of 2023. This was driven by favorable operating expense management increasing the operating margin by 220 basis points year-over-year to 71.4%. Notably, our proactive appeal process achieved favorable real estate tax reductions.

現在回到我們的事情上來。我們的投資組合比去年同期實現了 12.5% 的同店 NOI 成長，其中老年住房營運投資組合帶動了 23.7% 的年成長。 2023 年第四季度，門診醫療組合的同店組合成長了 2.8%。這是由於良好的營運費用管理使營運利潤率年增 220 個基點至 71.4%。值得注意的是，我們積極的上訴程序實現了有利的房地產稅減免。

The 23.7% fourth quarter year-over-year NOI increase in our same-store housing operating portfolio was a function of 9.7% revenue growth driven by the combination of 5.5% RevPOR growth and 330 basis points of average occupancy gain and moderating expense growth.

我們的同店房屋營運組合第四季 NOI 年增 23.7%，這是營收成長 9.7% 的結果，而營收成長是由 5.5% RevPOR 成長、平均入住率成長 330 個基點以及費用成長放緩共同推動的。

Expenses remain in control coming in at 5.7% for the quarter over the prior year's quarter. The strong revenue growth and expense control led to continued margin expansion of 290 basis points. Again, our ExpPOR growth for the quarter set a record for the lowest growth in our recorded history at 1.7%. All 3 regions continued to show strong same-store revenue growth, starting with the U.S. at 9.4%, Canada and the U.K. growing at 9.7% and 14.1%, respectively. The strong revenue growth in each region, combined with the expense controls have led to fantastic NOI growth in the U.S., Canada and the U.K. of 21.8%, 21.7% and 75.5%, respectively.

本季費用比去年同期成長 5.7%，仍處於控制之中。強勁的收入成長和費用控制導致利潤率持續擴大 290 個基點。本季的 ExpPOR 成長率再次創下了 1.7% 的歷史最低成長率。所有三個地區的同店收入均持續強勁成長，其中美國成長 9.4%，加拿大和英國分別成長 9.7% 和 14.1%。每個地區強勁的收入成長，加上費用控制，導緻美國、加拿大和英國的 NOI 分別成長了 21.8%、21.7% 和 75.5%。

We're flying along with our integrated platform initiative, which will start to go live at our first operator in the first half of this year. I will not go into all the details, but I will say that our focus on improving the customer and employee experience is coming together very well. The integrations of the various modules will simplify the customer experience and reduce the labor around basic tasks, enabling our site teams to focus on what they love our customers. More to come in 2024.

我們正在實施我們的整合平台計劃，該計劃將於今年上半年開始在我們的第一家營運商上線。我不會詳細介紹所有細節，但我要說的是，我們對改善客戶和員工體驗的關注很好地結合在一起。各種模組的整合將簡化客戶體驗並減少基本任務的勞動力，使我們的站點團隊能夠專注於他們喜歡客戶的事情。 2024 年還會有更多內容。

I will now turn the call over to Tim -- to Nikhil.

我現在將把電話轉給提姆——轉給尼基爾。

I'll go next. Thanks, John. On the transaction side, as John has mentioned, 2023 marked the most active year in the history of the company. Our new investment activity of almost $6 billion spanned spend more than 50 different transactions with a median transaction size of $54 million, in which we acquired 153 properties over the course of the year. I am sure you all have read about the confluence of a few factors that are creating the current investment backdrop, namely the great wall of CRE debt maturities, expiring SOFR caps, pressure on the regional bank balance sheets and the denominator effect. Welltower is uniquely positioned to capitalize on these trends and serve as a counterparty of choice for our private equity sponsors, large pension and asset managers and entrepreneurs that are impacted by these challenges.

我接著去。謝謝，約翰。在交易方面，正如約翰所提到的，2023 年是該公司歷史上最活躍的一年。我們的新投資活動近 60 億美元，涉及 50 多筆不同的交易，交易規模中位數為 5,400 萬美元，其中我們在一年內收購了 153 處房產。我相信你們都已經了解了造成當前投資背景的幾個因素的綜合作用，即商業地產債務到期的長城、即將到期的 SOFR 上限、區域銀行資產負債表的壓力以及分母效應。 Welltower 具有獨特的優勢，能夠利用這些趨勢，並成為受這些挑戰影響的私募股權發起人、大型退休金和資產管理公司以及企業家的首選交易對手。

We are able to source these opportunities directly from sellers or through our operating partners given our reputation of being a good partner and a reliable and credible counterparty. We are then able to analyze and underwrite quickly and in great detail, thanks to the combination of our data analytics platform, Alpha, and our best in business investment team.

鑑於我們作為良好合作夥伴和可靠可信賴交易對手的聲譽，我們能夠直接從賣家或透過我們的營運合作夥伴獲得這些機會。由於我們的數據分析平台 Alpha 和我們最好的商業投資團隊的結合，我們能夠快速、詳細地分析和承保。

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we then execute on the business plan for each asset through our deep network of aligned operating partners backed by the operating platform that John is methodically building out. These factors drive our sustainable competitive advantage for creating shareholder value.

最後，也許也是最重要的是，我們透過由約翰有條不紊地建構的營運平台支援的深度合作營運合作夥伴網絡，執行每項資產的業務計畫。這些因素推動我們創造股東價值的可持續競爭優勢。

Our 2023 investment activities was focused on granular, off-market, high-conviction transactions. A majority of the transactions were focused on our seniors and wellness housing businesses where we acquired additional assets in markets where we already have high-performing assets. By acquiring these assets at an attractive basis and consolidating operations under the same operator, we are able to reap the operating benefits of regional density.

我們 2023 年的投資活動專注於細粒度、場外、高可信度的交易。大部分交易都集中在我們的老年人和健康住房業務上，我們在已經擁有高性能資產的市場中收購了額外的資產。透過以有吸引力的價格收購這些資產並將業務整合到同一營運商下，我們能夠獲得區域密度的營運效益。

In the fourth quarter alone, we closed on nearly $3 billion of investments while remaining targeted and disciplined. We acquired 44 senior housing properties from 11 different sellers growing our relationship with 7 existing operating partners. We acquired roughly 8,800 units with an average age of around 7 years at an average basis of $222,000 per unit at an approximately 40% discount to replacement cost. These transactions have a low success year 1 yield and are expected to generate unlevered IRRs north of 10%.

僅在第四季度，我們就完成了近 30 億美元的投資，同時保持了針對性和紀律性。我們從 11 個不同的賣家手中收購了 44 個高級住宅物業，從而發展了我們與 7 個現有營運合作夥伴的關係。我們以每台平均價格 222,000 美元的價格購買了大約 8,800 套，平均使用年限約為 7 年，重置成本折扣約為 40%。這些交易的成功第一年收益率較低，預計將產生 10% 以上的無槓桿 IRR。

I am also excited to provide an update on the performance of our Integra portfolio, where we have continued to see a sequential improvement in performance. For the 140 buildings that first transitioned to regional operators, we have seen annualized EBITDARM improved by more than $300 million from losing more than $85 million in the 3 months prior to the transition to positive $228 million in the third quarter. While there continues to be meaningful remaining upside in performance beyond the current state, I am pleased to announce that EBITDARM coverage is now greater than 1.5x. We also transitioned the last 7 remaining buildings earlier this month after getting the final set of regulatory approvals.

我還很高興提供有關 Integra 產品組合性能的最新信息，我們繼續看到性能的連續改進。對於首先過渡到區域運營商的 140 座建築，我們發現年化 EBITDARM 改善了超過 3 億美元，從過渡前 3 個月的虧損超過 8500 萬美元增至第三季度的正值 2.28 億美元。儘管在當前狀態之外，業績仍存在有意義的上升空間，但我很高興地宣布，EBITDARM 覆蓋率現已超過 1.5 倍。在獲得最終的監管批准後，我們也在本月早些時候對最後 7 棟剩餘建築進行了過渡。

On the back of our continued success turning around operations, for our legacy Genesis and ProMedica skilled nursing portfolios, we have -- we were active in deploying capital in the skilled space as we partnered with regional operators to acquire under-managed assets. Given the credit nature of our skilled nursing investments, we always strive to have meaningful downside protection through a combination of right per bed basis in states with favorable reimbursement landscape and significant credit protection through personal and entity-level guarantees.

在我們持續成功扭轉營運的背景下，對於我們遺留的 Genesis 和 ProMedica 熟練護理產品組合，我們與區域運營商合作收購管理不足的資產，並積極在熟練領域部署資本。鑑於我們熟練護理投資的信貸性質，我們始終努力透過在報銷環境有利的州結合每張床位的權利以及透過個人和實體層面的擔保提供重要的信用保護來提供有意義的下行保護。

Looking ahead to 2024, we are off to an exciting start. We are delighted to announce our strategic partnership with Affinity living communities in which we are entering into a long-term programmatic development relationship and acquiring the Affinity portfolio of 25 active adult properties with an average age of less than 8 years or $969 million or $233,000 per unit after allocating the NPV of interest cost savings to the assumed below-market debt. Darin, Scott, Charlie and John have built a fantastic business over the last decade as they have meticulously iterated and refined the Affinity prototype. Their vertically integrated platform and unwavering focus on efficiency has enabled them to grow their footprint in typically expensive Pacific Northwest markets at an attractive basis to provide moderately priced active adult housing at average rents of approximately $2,100 per month.

展望 2024 年，我們將迎來一個令人興奮的開始。我們很高興地宣布與Affinity 生活社區建立策略合作夥伴關係，我們將在其中建立長期規劃開發關係，並收購Affinity 的25 處活躍成人房產組合，平均年齡不到8 歲，即9.69 億美元，即每處233,000 美元將節省的利息成本的淨現值分配給假設的低於市場的債務後的單位。 Darin、Scott、Charlie 和 John 在過去十年中精心迭代和完善了 Affinity 原型，打造了一家出色的企業。他們的垂直整​​合平台和對效率的堅定關注使他們能夠以有吸引力的基礎在通常昂貴的太平洋西北市場擴大足跡，以每月約 2,100 美元的平均租金提供價格適中的活躍成人住房。

We have been incredibly pleased with the operating performance of our moderately priced active adult business over the last few years and are excited to partner with the Affinity team to further grow that business.

我們對過去幾年中價格適中的活躍成人業務的營運表現感到非常滿意，並且很高興與 Affinity 團隊合作進一步發展這項業務。

Our investment team remains incredibly busy as we continue to be the steady hand and trusted counterparty in our business and remain well positioned to capitalize on capital structure issues across the industry. We are inundated with opportunities up and down the capital stack and continue to balance price discipline, operator selection and capital availability to be thoughtful stewards of our shareholders' capital.

我們的投資團隊仍然非常忙碌，因為我們仍然是業務中穩健且值得信賴的交易對手，並且仍然處於有利地位，可以利用整個行業的資本結構問題。我們充滿了資本堆疊上下的機會，並繼續平衡價格紀​​律、營運商選擇和資本可用性，以成為股東資本的周到管理者。

I'll now hand over the call to Tim to walk through our financial results and 2024 guidance.

現在，我將把電話轉交給提姆，讓他詳細介紹我們的財務表現和 2024 年指引。

Thank you, Nikhil. My comments today will focus on our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. Performance of our Triple-Net investment segments, our capital activity, our balance sheet and liquidity update and finally, the introduction of our full year 2024 outlook. Welltower reported fourth quarter net income attributable to common stockholders of $0.15 per diluted share and normalized funds from operations of $0.96 per diluted share, representing 15.7% year-over-year growth. We also reported total portfolio same-store NOI growth of 12.5% year-over-year.

謝謝你，尼基爾。我今天的評論將重點放在我們的第四季和 2023 年全年業績。我們的三網投資部門的表現、我們的資本活動、我們的資產負債表和流動性更新，最後介紹我們的 2024 年全年展望。 Welltower 公佈第四季歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤為每股攤薄後每股 0.15 美元，正常營運資金為每股攤薄後每股 0.96 美元，較去年同期成長 15.7%。我們也報告總投資組合同店 NOI 年成長 12.5%。

Now turning to the performance of our triple-net properties in the quarter. As a reminder, our triple-net lease portfolio coverage and occupancy stats reported a quarter in arrears. So these statistics reflect the trailing 12 months ending 9/30/2023. In our senior housing triple-net portfolio, same-store NOI increased 2.2% year-over-year and trailing 12-month EBITDA coverage was 0.95x. It's also worth noting that our trailing 3-month coverage in this segment moved above 1x for the first time since the pandemic. Next, same-store NOI and long-term post-acute portfolio grew 5.2% year-over-year, and trailing 12-month EBITDA coverage was 1.36x.

現在轉向我們本季三網物業的表現。提醒一下，我們的三網租賃投資組合覆蓋範圍和入住率統計數據顯示有四分之一的拖欠。因此，這些統計數據反映了截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日的過去 12 個月。在我們的老年住房三網投資組合中，同店 NOI 年比成長 2.2%，過去 12 個月 EBITDA 覆蓋率為 0.95 倍。另外值得注意的是，自大流行以來，我們對該細分市場的過去 3 個月覆蓋率首次超過 1 倍。其次，同店 NOI 和長期急性後投資組合年增 5.2%，過去 12 個月 EBITDA 覆蓋率為 1.36 倍。

Turning to capital activity. We invested $3 billion in acquisitions, loans and development in the quarter, led by $2.1 billion of senior housing operating investments. In the quarter, we continued to fund investment activity via equity issuance, completing a bought equity deal in November, which along with regular way ATM activity, resulted in $2.8 billion of gross proceeds in the quarter at an average price of $86.20 per share. This equity issuance allowed us to fund investment activity, along with the extinguishment of approximately $250 million of debt in the quarter and end the year with a $2.1 million cash balance.

轉向資本活動。本季我們在收購、貸款和開發方面投資了 30 億美元，其中老年住房營運投資為 21 億美元。本季度，我們繼續透過股票發行為投資活動提供資金，並於11 月完成了一項收購股權交易，加上常規方式的ATM 活動，本季收益總額為28 億美元，平均價格為每股86.20 美元。這次股票發行使我們能夠為投資活動提供資金，同時還清償了本季約 2.5 億美元的債務，並在年底獲得了 210 萬美元的現金餘額。

Staying with the balance sheet. As we finish 2023, I want to highlight the balance sheet transformation that has occurred over the last 24 months. When COVID hit in 2020, we acted quickly to protect the balance sheet by securing substantial incremental liquidity, in large part by reducing cash outlays and taking advantage of strong asset values by selling long lease duration assets into a 0 interest rate environment. These actions helped alleviate the impact of nearly 50% drawdown in senior housing operating NOI that bottomed out in the first quarter of 2021, driving peak leverage to nearly 7.5x ex-HHS funds. After stabilizing the portfolio in the 7s in 2021, the combination of a strong recovery in senior housing performance and disciplined acquisition of external growth over the last 2 years has allowed us to methodically lower leverage finishing this year with 5.03x net debt to EBITDA.

堅持資產負債表。在 2023 年即將結束之際，我想強調過去 24 個月發生的資產負債表轉型。當2020 年新冠疫情爆發時，我們迅速採取行動，透過確保大量增量流動性來保護資產負債表，這在很大程度上是透過減少現金支出，並透過在零利率環境下出售長租賃期資產來利用強勁的資產價值。這些行動有助於緩解高級住房營運 NOI 下降近 50% 的影響，該 NOI 於 2021 年第一季觸底，將槓桿率峰值推至前 HHS 基金的近 7.5 倍。在 2021 年將投資組合穩定在 7 左右之後，高級住房表現的強勁復甦和過去 2 年對外部增長的嚴格收購相結合，使我們能夠有條不紊地降低槓桿率，今年淨負債達到 EBITDA 的 5.03 倍。

Consistent with past commentary around the balance sheet, I want to underscore that despite the improvement in metrics, current leverage still does not reflect a full post-COVID recovery in senior housing operating NOI as our portfolio still sits meaningfully below pre-COVID NOI levels. Our recovery back to these levels will drive leverage well below 5x.

與過去有關資產負債表的評論一致，我想強調的是，儘管指標有所改善，但當前的槓桿率仍不能反映高級住房運營NOI 在新冠疫情后的全面復甦，因為我們的投資組合仍明顯低於新冠疫情前的NOI 水準。我們恢復到這些水準將使槓桿率遠低於 5 倍。

In summary, in 2023, our post-COVID balance sheet recovery transitioned into a strategic repositioning, ending the year with substantially upgraded metrics from prior to the pandemic, an expectation for further improvement as our senior housing operating portfolio continues to carry significant organic cash flow growth momentum into 2024. This positions us with substantial capacity to continue to make systematically opportunistic capital allocation decisions to drive long-term shareholder returns in any market environment.

總之，2023 年，我們的新冠疫情后資產負債表復甦轉變為戰略重新定位，年底指標較疫情前大幅升級，隨著我們的高級住房運營投資組合繼續擁有大量有機現金流，預計將進一步改善到2024年的成長動力。這使我們有足夠的能力繼續做出系統性的機會主義資本配置決策，以在任何市場環境下推動股東的長期回報。

Lastly, as I move on to the introduction of our full year 2024 guidance, I want to remind you that we have not included any investment activity in our outlook beyond that, which has already been announced publicly. Last night, we introduced an initial full year 2024 outlook for net income attributable to common stockholders of $1.21 to $1.37 per diluted share and normalized FFO of $3.94 to $4.10 per diluted share or $4.02 at the midpoint. As mentioned in our release last night, our 2024 guidance contemplates no HHS or other government grants. So after adjusting for $0.03 received in 2023, the midpoint of our initial guidance represents 11.5% year-over-year growth.

最後，當我開始介紹我們的 2024 年全年指引時，我想提醒您，除此之外，我們的展望中沒有包含任何投資活動，這一點已經公開宣布。昨晚，我們提出了 2024 年全年歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤預期為稀釋後每股 1.21 美元至 1.37 美元，標準化 FFO 為稀釋後每股 3.94 美元至 4.10 美元，中間值為 4.02 美元。正如我們昨晚發布的消息中提到的，我們的 2024 年指導方針不考慮 HHS 或其他政府撥款。因此，在對 2023 年收到的 0.03 美元進行調整後，我們初步指導的中位數代表了 11.5% 的同比增長。

This year-over-year increase in FFO per share is composed of a $0.33 increase from higher year-over-year senior housing operating NOI, $0.02 increase from higher NOI in our outpatient medical and triple-net lease portfolios, a $0.04 headwind from higher year-over-year growth in G&A expenses tied mainly to continued buildout of our operating platform; and finally, a $0.10 increase from investment activity and financing activity.

每股 FFO 的同比增長包括：老年住房運營 NOI 同比增加 0.33 美元，門診醫療和三網租賃投資組合 NOI 增加 0.02 美元，以及較高的 NOI 增加 0.04 美元。一般及行政費用的同比增長主要與我們運營平台的持續建設有關；最後，投資活動和融資活動增加 0.10 美元。

Underlying this FFO guidance is an estimate of total portfolio year-over-year same-store NOI growth of 8.25% to 11.5%, driven by subsegment growth of outpatient medical, 2% to 3%; long-term post-acute, 2% to 3%; senior housing triple-net, 2.5% to 4%; and finally, senior housing operating growth of 15% to 21%, the midpoint of which is driven by revenue growth of approximately 9.2%. Underlying this revenue growth is an expectation for RevPOR growth of approximately 5.25% and an acceleration in year-over-year occupancy growth to 290 basis points.

此 FFO 指引的基礎是，在門診醫療細分市場成長 2% 至 3% 的推動下，總投資組合同店 NOI 年成長 8.25% 至 11.5%；長期急性後，2%～3%；老年住房三網融合，2.5%至4%；最後，高級住房營運成長 15% 至 21%，其中中點是由約 9.2% 的收入成長推動的。這項營收成長的背後是對 RevPOR 成長約 5.25% 的預期以及入住率年增率加速至 290 個基點。

And with that, I will hand the call back over to Shankh.

然後，我會將電話轉回給 Shankh。

Thank you, Tim. I wanted to address a few important topics before I open the call up for questions. As you may know, on November 28, we lost my personal hero, mentor and friend, Charlie Munger. We are deeply saddened by his death and thank many of you for reaching out to my team and me during this difficult time. Charlie was truly generous with his wisdom continually guiding us not only on the importance of compounding, but also behaving like owners, not managers and deserving great partners by being one and taking far less crowded high road and acting with conviction when the conditions were right. We witnessed his wit, uncommon sense, simplicity, passion for multidiscipline running and innate ability to cut through noise and arrive at the right decision.

謝謝你，提姆。在開始提問之前，我想先討論幾個重要的主題。如你所知，11 月 28 日，我們失去了我個人的英雄、導師和朋友查理·芒格。我們對他的去世深感悲痛，並感謝你們中的許多人在這個困難時期向我和我的團隊伸出援手。查理非常慷慨，他的智慧不僅不斷指導我們複利的重要性，而且還像所有者而不是管理者一樣行事，成為值得成為偉大合作夥伴的人，走一條不那麼擁擠的大道，並在條件合適時堅定地採取行動。我們見證了他的智慧、非凡的判斷力、簡單、對多學科跑步的熱情以及排除噪音並做出正確決定的天生能力。

The influence he had on Welltower, its people and its culture is truly measurable. His serine guidance and sage principal advice has been invaluable to me in my life and my career. Charlie was also an instrumental influence on the members of our senior leadership team, to whom he gave his greatest gift of all time, his time. We're grateful for the time we spent in his presence. I owe him a lifetime debt that cannot be repaid, but we will carry forward his teachings in how we deal with our owners, partners, residents, employees and others. His most profound impact on us is perhaps cemented in the ground rule document that he guided me to write that you can find on our website.

他對 Welltower 及其人民和文化的影響是真正可以衡量的。他的指導和明智的主要建議對我的生活和職業生涯都是無價的。查理也對我們高階領導團隊的成員產生了重要影響，他向他們獻出了有史以來最偉大的禮物——他的時間。我們很感激與他共度的時光。我欠他一生無法償還的債務，但我們將在如何對待我們的業主、合作夥伴、居民、員工和其他人方面繼承他的教誨。他對我們最深遠的影響也許體現在他指導我撰寫的基本規則文件中，您可以在我們的網站上找到該文件。

Moving on to a less sombre topic, I want to draw your attention to some of the partners which we forged new relationship with in 2023. Beyond what we have announced so far, I want to highlight Affinity as our new growth partner. Nikhil walked you through the investment rationale Affinity, but I would also like to express how excited I am to work with Darin Davidson and his team there.

轉向一個不那麼陰暗的話題，我想提請您注意我們在 2023 年與之建立新關係的一些合作夥伴。除了我們迄今為止宣布的內容之外，我想強調 Affinity 作為我們新的成長合作夥伴。 Nikhil 向您介紹了 Affinity 的投資原理，但我也想表達與 Darin Davidson 及其團隊合作的興奮之情。

As we have gotten to know Darin over the last 5 years, he has proven to be a man of high integrity and thoughtfulness with a true compass on the future direction of how older Americans want to live. Despite adding a few handful of managers to our growth platform in 2023, our partner and geographic strategy remains to go deep instead of going broad and our consolidating roster of existing managers reflect that.

隨著我們在過去五年中對達林的了解，事實證明，他是一個高度正直和深思熟慮的人，對美國老年人想要的生活方式的未來方向有著真正的指導方針。儘管在 2023 年我們的成長平台上增加了幾位經理，但我們的合作夥伴和地理策略仍然是深入而不是廣泛，我們現有經理的整合名冊反映了這一點。

In summary, I hope that the optimism conveyed by my partners today on growth prospect of our business has resonated with you. While we remain focused on the execution of our 2024 strategic and operational goals, I cannot help but draw your attention to the outsized multiyear growth trajectory in front of us, which is supported by 5 different growth pillars. Number one, some of this is questionably is a function of favorable demand supply setup that I think you all understand. This should only get better as we look into 2025 and 2026. Number two, a lot of my personal enthusiasm stems from the digital transformation and business process optimization that John is driving. We should start to see some fruits of his labor this year, but much more in '25 and '26. Number three, overlay that with the impact of hundreds of properties that we have recently transitioned or agreed to transition to better operators.

總而言之，我希望我的合作夥伴今天所表達的對我們業務成長前景的樂觀態度能引起您的共鳴。雖然我們仍然專注於執行 2024 年戰略和營運目標，但我忍不住提請您注意我們面前的超大規模的多年增長軌跡，該軌跡由 5 個不同的增長支柱支撐。第一，其中一些值得懷疑的是有利的需求供給設定的函數，我想你們都明白。當我們展望 2025 年和 2026 年時，這種情況只會變得更好。第二，我個人的許多熱情都源自於約翰正在推動的數位轉型和業務流程優化。今年我們應該開始看到他的一些勞動成果，但在 25 年和 26 年會看到更多成果。第三，將其與我們最近過渡或同意過渡到更好的營運商的數百處房產的影響相疊加。

I am excited about the improving resident and employee experience that is currently underway with a financial impact following soon thereafter. Number four, add our extremely targeted and disciplined growth, external growth opportunities. And last but not least, number five, our under-levered balance sheet, that -- which Tim just described to you. We will continue to experience further organic deleveraging, which will either support an A rating or provide capacity for additional external growth. As we think about the next couple of years, we have never felt better about the growth prospects or accelerating growth prospects of our earnings and cash flow for our company on a par share basis.

我對目前正在進行的居民和員工體驗的改善感到興奮，不久後就會產生財務影響。第四，加入我們極具針對性和紀律性的成長以及外部成長機會。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，第五點是我們槓桿率不足的資產負債表，而提姆剛才向您描述了這一點。我們將繼續經歷進一步的有機去槓桿化，這將支援 A 級評級或為額外的外部成長提供能力。當我們思考未來幾年時，我們對公司以面額計算的收益和現金流的成長前景或加速成長前景感到前所未有的好。

With that, I will open the call up for questions.

接下來，我將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Connor Siversky with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Connor Siversky。

Appreciate the detail in your prepared remarks. So an observation, a couple of short questions on wellness housing. The Affinity portfolio generating a 60% operating margin not exactly comparable, but seems to be above the range that a traditional assisted living facility could achieve. So first question on this end, where does that 60% margin sit on the bell curve of wellness housing operating performance outcomes? Second, with what looks like a very solid return profile, how much should we expect Welltower to lean into this segment in the years ahead? And finally, how has RevPOR and NOI growth in that portfolio trended over the last 2 to 3 years?

感謝您準備的發言中的細節。這是一個觀察，幾個關於健康住房的簡短問題。 Affinity 產品組合產生 60% 的營業利潤率，雖然不完全具有可比性，但似乎高於傳統輔助生活設施可以達到的範圍。因此，關於這一點的第一個問題是，60% 的利潤率位於健康住房營運績效結果的鐘形曲線上的什麼位置？其次，鑑於回報率看起來非常穩定，我們應該期望 Welltower 在未來幾年內向這一領域傾斜多少？最後，過去 2 到 3 年該投資組合的 RevPOR 和 NOI 成長趨勢如何？

You snuck in 3 questions. Let me see if I can understand -- remember all of them. First is we laid out our strategy of how we see investing in the senior living space which is high price point, very affluent micromarket, high-acuity product, if you will, where we provide a service that can be actually charged accordingly and hire people and pay them appropriately. So that's one of the strategy. On the other side of the barbell, we went from no acuity and built out a -- our business over the last 6 years, 5, 6 years on this wellness housing side where it's a much lower price point, but almost no services.

你偷偷問了3個問題。讓我看看我能否理解——記住所有這些。首先，我們制定了我們如何看待老年生活空間的投資策略，這是高價位、非常富裕的微型市場、高敏銳度的產品，如果你願意的話，我們提供的服務可以實際相應收費並僱用人員並給予他們適當的報酬。這就是策略之一。在槓鈴的另一邊，我們從沒有敏銳度開始，在過去的 6 年、5、6 年裡建立了我們的業務，在健康住房方面，價格低得多，但幾乎沒有服務。

So from an acuity standpoint, and that provides, obviously, a much higher NOI margin. That's the 2 business segments that we know how to do well and make money, and that's where we are. I'm not suggesting that anything in between is not something that is right or wrong or anything like that, but just not something that we are focused on.

因此，從敏銳度的角度來看，這顯然提供了更高的 NOI 利潤。這是我們知道如何做好並賺錢的兩個業務領域，這就是我們所處的位置。我並不是說介於兩者之間的任何事情都不是正確或錯誤或類似的事情，但只是不是我們關注的事情。

Now going back to your question, where that 60% or so margin sits in that wellness housing spectrum. I will say it sits towards the upper end, probably the upper half, but no means an aberration, right? So if you think about -- I think about this business from mostly a mid-50s to mid-60% margin business. Your last question, how has the growth has been in the wellness housing. Historically, it has been growing, I would say, mid- to high single digits. In 2023, the NOI growth for our wellness housing portfolio on a same-store basis has been 12.2% in fourth quarter alone, that was 13.1%. I hope I remember all your questions.

現在回到你的問題，60% 左右的利潤屬於健康住房範圍。我會說它位於上端，可能是上半部分，但這並不意味著異常，對吧？因此，如果你考慮一下——我認為這項業務的利潤率大多在 50% 到 60% 之間。你的最後一個問題是，健康住房的成長如何。我想說，從歷史上看，它一直以中高個位數的速度成長。 2023 年，我們的健康住宅組合的同店 NOI 成長僅在第四季就達到 12.2%，即 13.1%。我希望我記得你所有的問題。

You next question comes from Jeff Spector with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特。

Congratulations on a great year. A bunch of questions, but I'll just focus on one. After 3 years of very strong better-than-expected internal growth, the market appears to be pricing in approximately 700 to 800 basis points of deceleration. As we look ahead, does growth normalize from here? Or can the current growth trajectory continue?

恭喜您度過了美好的一年。一堆問題，但我只專注在一個。經過三年非常強勁且優於預期的內部成長後，市場似乎已經消化了約 700 至 800 個基點的減速。展望未來，成長是否會從此恢復正常？或者當前的成長軌跡能否持續？

Thank you, Jeff, for the question. I'll start probably with one of my favorite mongolisms, which is knowing what you don't know is actually a lot more useful than being brilliant. So I want to make sure you understand that we have no hubris of what we don't know. So I'm frankly speaking, I'm pretty surprised for many months, I've been reading about this in research reports, talking to investors, that sort of this idea that if you had 2 good years of numbers, obviously, that has to go down pretty meaningfully. Frankly speaking, I don't personally understand that. I will tell you that we don't know how this year is going to completely play out. We give you our best guess that Tim described to you. It is possible that we have another year of that growth rate that's sort of similar to last 2 years. possible if we have a strong summer sort of leasing season, right? But I think we're going to have many great years in front of us with double-digit NOI growth.

謝謝傑夫的提問。我可能會從我最喜歡的蒙古主義之一開始，那就是知道你不知道的東西實際上比聰明更有用。所以我想確保你們明白，我們不會對我們不知道的事情感到傲慢。所以我坦白說，幾個月來我一直感到非常驚訝，我一直在研究報告中讀到這一點，與投資者交談，這種想法是，如果你有兩年好的數據，顯然，那就有下降得很有意義。坦白說，我個人不太理解這一點。我會告訴你，我們不知道今年將如何完全結束。我們向您提供蒂姆向您描述的最佳猜測。我們可能會再次看到與過去兩年類似的成長率。如果我們有一個強勁的夏季租賃季節，就有可能，對嗎？但我認為，我們將迎來許多美好的歲月，NOI 將實現兩位數的成長。

Now whether this year, next year, this quarter, next quarter, I don't know what chips will fall. But as we think about taking this portfolio to where it should be leased, with our opinion, as we have told you, that we'll be very disappointed if we go back to pre-COVID. There is no reason we can't even go back to where 2015 levels were because if you look forward next few years, you will see demand/supply has been significantly better. And our platform buildout should help us get well past that. We should have double-digit NOI growth for years to come. I hope that sort of answers your question.

現在無論是今年、明年、本季、下季度，我都不知道會掉什麼籌碼。但當我們考慮將這個投資組合帶到應該租賃的地方時，我們的意見是，正如我們已經告訴過你的那樣，如果我們回到新冠疫情之前，我們會非常失望。我們沒有理由不能回到 2015 年的水平，因為如果你展望未來幾年，你會發現需求/供應已經明顯改善。我們的平台建置應該可以幫助我們克服這個問題。未來幾年我們的 NOI 應該會實現兩位數的成長。我希望這能回答你的問題。

We have no hubris of sort of knowing what we don't know, but we think is also this idea that because our business has done so well for the last 2 years, it has to go down. It has to meaningfully decelerate. It sort of reminds me that perhaps we should have more humility of what we don't know. We'll see how this plays out. We'll see what market gives us.

我們不會傲慢地知道自己不知道什麼，但我們也認為，由於我們的業務在過去兩年表現得很好，所以它必須走下坡路。它必須有意義地減速。這有點提醒我，也許我們應該對我們不知道的事情更加謙虛。我們將看看結果如何。我們將看看市場為我們帶來什麼。

Your next question comes from Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho.

您的下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Vikram Malhotra。

I guess I wanted to -- you have very strong outlook on SHOP. I wanted to dig into that a bit more just in 2 parts. One, can you talk about sort of at the high end of your guidance range, what you -- or maybe the low end, what you've baked in for RevPOR growth? And then related to that, as you sort of trend towards 85%-ish, 86% occupancy, clearly, there are benefits to the bottom line. But I wanted to understand, do the operators need to staff up or spend more marketing dollars? Is there maybe some broad trends that you can share with us to achieve that 85% of the margin flow through?

我想我想——你對 SHOP 有著非常強烈的看法。我想分成兩部分深入探討這一點。第一，您能否談談您的指導範圍的高端，或者低端，您為 RevPOR 增長所做的準備？與此相關的是，當你的入住率趨向於 85% 左右、86% 時，顯然，這對利潤是有好處的。但我想知道，運營商是否需要增加人員或花費更多的行銷資金？您是否可以與我們分享一些整體趨勢，以實現 85% 的利潤流動？

Yes. I'll start with the RevPOR and then I'll hand over to John for any comment on kind of the operating expense side. But thinking about the rent growth, if you think about kind of 5 to 5.5 kind of the range that drives kind of flexes from the bottom to the top of that range.

是的。我將從 RevPOR 開始，然後將有關營運費用的任何評論轉交給 John。但考慮到租金成長，如果你考慮 5 到 5.5 種範圍，就會推動從該範圍的底部到頂部的彎曲。

Yes. On the how the numbers work. As Shankh and Tim have said for a long time, the flow-through gets pretty fantastic as you get north of 80%. So when you talk about staffing up, you really have -- and I mentioned this on the last call, the positions are in place. You have your [head staff], you have your Executive Director, et cetera, et cetera. So it's very incremental. So this part of the curve, there's a lot of money that comes to the bottom line as you increase occupancy. And additionally, as we've said, because of supply-demand factors, that's just expected in the marketplace. We may or may not decide to spend more money on marketing to accelerate that, but the conditions are fantastic right now.

是的。關於數字如何運作。正如 Shankh 和 Tim 長期以來所說，當你達到 80% 以上時，流量就會變得非常驚人。因此，當你談論人員配備時，你確實已經——我在上次電話會議上提到了這一點，職位已經就位。你有你的[主管人員]，你有你的執行董事，等等。所以它是非常增量的。因此，在曲線的這一部分，隨著入住率的增加，底線會增加很多錢。此外，正如我們所說，由於供需因素，這只是市場的預期。我們可能會也可能不會決定在行銷上投入更多資金來加速這一進程，但現在的條件非常棒。

Your next question comes from Jonathan Hughes with Raymond James.

您的下一個問題來自喬納森·休斯和雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

I wanted to ask about the trajectory of external growth. You lay out in the business update decks, the opportunity to deploy in excess of $3 billion annually with your current stable of proprietary developers and operators. And on top of that are, of course, the opportunities outside of those relationships that could be additive, like Affinity. I know you don't provide guidance on investment activity, but is it fair to assume $3 billion is kind of the low end we can expect year in, year out, given that these partners of yours, they want to grow their businesses and they can only grow with you due to the proprietary nature of your partnerships?

我想問外部成長的軌跡。您可以在業務更新平台中列出每年與目前穩定的專有開發人員和營運商一起部署超過 30 億美元的機會。當然，最重要的是，這些關係以外的機會可以是附加的，例如親和力。我知道您沒有提供有關投資活動的指導，但是假設 30 億美元是我們年復一年可以預期的低端，考慮到您的這些合作夥伴希望發展自己的業務並且他們由於您的合作夥伴關係的專有性質，只能與您一起成長？

Jonathan, let me see if I can answer that question. We will not give guidance. Our SHOP is not designed to buy stuff. We only grow if we think we can grow to add value on a partial basis for existing investors. So that means it's $3 billion, it's $3 billion, that means it's $300 million is $300 million. And that means if it's $8 billion, it's $8 billion. that's sort of where we are.

喬納森，讓我看看我能否回答這個問題。我們不會給予指導。我們的商店不是為了買東西而設計的。只有當我們認為我們能夠成長並為現有投資者部分增加價值時，我們才會成長。所以這意味著它是 30 億美元，這是 30 億美元，這意味著它是 3 億美元是 3 億美元。這意味著如果是 80 億美元，那就是 80 億美元。這就是我們現在的情況。

Having said that, if you look at the Page 7 of our slide deck, we see there's a massive amount of loans in the senior housing space that are rolling. That's just a U.S. number. We're also seeing opportunities in both U.K. and Canada, similar ideas. And there is not enough credit in the system to refi this. So we think the opportunity is set, obviously, in front of us. It's going to be very robust.

話雖如此，如果您查看我們投影片的第 7 頁，我們會發現高級住房領域有大量貸款正在滾動。這只是美國的號碼。我們也在英國和加拿大看到了類似的機會。而且系統中沒有足夠的信用來重新融資。因此，我們認為機會顯然就擺在我們面前。它會非常堅固。

Speaking of pipeline right now, I want to reiterate the comment that I have made in my prepared remarks. We have never been this busy in Q1. As you understand that there is a seasonality of the deal business as well, right? People worked really, really hard into the year-end to close out the year. And Q1 is usually very -- sort of -- you don't see a lot of activity. Activity starts to pick up, obviously, in Q2 and then that's obviously translated into heavy second half. And that normal seasonality, we haven't seen and perhaps because of the debt cut that we're talking about, perhaps it's because of the -- another thing that Nikhil mentioned, which is the interest caps that are coming off. And regional banks were nowhere to be found, right?

現在談到管道，我想重申我在準備好的發言中發表的評論。第一季我們從未如此忙碌。如您所知，交易業務也有季節性，對嗎？人們非常非常努力地工作到年底，以結束這一年。第一季通常是非常——有點——你不會看到很多活動。顯然，第二季的活動開始回升，然後這顯然會轉化為下半年的強勁表現。我們還沒有看到這種正常的季節性，也許是因為我們正在談論的債務削減，也許是因為尼基爾提到的另一件事，即利息上限的取消。地區銀行也無處可​​尋，對嗎？

So in that context, I think we're going to have a record year again. But who knows? If we don't see the opportunities to invest, we won't, but the pipeline remains robust, it's visible, it's actionable, and we can see a massive amount of value creation coming through that.

因此，在這種情況下，我認為我們將再次迎來創紀錄的一年。但誰知道呢？如果我們看不到投資機會，我們就不會看到，但管道仍然強大，它是可見的，它是可操作的，我們可以看到透過它創造大量的價值。

Your next question comes from Tayo Okusanya with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Tayo Okusanya。

Congrats on a great quarter and a great outlook. On the regulatory front, again, in the past few weeks or so, there's been some discussion, the house just kind of doing some hearings on senior housing and some concerns around maybe ultimately, you also see some minimum staffing rules in senior housing. Just kind of curious what you're hearing on your end? How you kind of see that evolving over time? And what that could mean for profitability for senior housing operators?

恭喜您取得了出色的季度業績和美好的前景。在監管方面，在過去幾週左右的時間裡，出現了一些討論，眾議院只是就高級住房問題舉行了一些聽證會，以及一些關於最終的擔憂，你還會看到高級住房的一些最低人員配置規則。只是有點好奇你到底聽到了什麼？您如何看待這種情況隨著時間的推移而演變？這對老年住房營運商的獲利能力意味著什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Tayo. Obviously, we're very aware of the conversations taking place on the regulatory side. I think something that's consistent with how we talked about this in the past, is this business on the senior housing side, we almost entirely play in a private pay business where the delivery of a high-quality product and reputation in the market is the most important driver of your business on a go-forward basis. And so I think there's areas of the health care world where that's not the same and you've got more of a captive demand audience, and there's more concern over how you may run a business.

是的。謝謝，泰約。顯然，我們非常了解監管方面正在進行的對話。我認為與我們過去談論這個問題的方式一致的是，老年住房方面的業務，我們幾乎完全從事私人付費業務，其中高品質產品的交付和市場聲譽是最重要的您的業務不斷發展的重要驅動力。因此，我認為醫療保健領域的某些領域情況有所不同，您有更多的固定需求受眾，並且更專注於您如何經營業務。

But on the senior housing side, what we know very well both the good and the bad is that the business is entirely driven by reputation. So it continues to be the focus of ours is that whether it's the staffing levels, the level of care, the quality of the employees there, what drives the business day in, day out. And that's why we spend so much time focusing on creating these sustainable models at the property level.

但在老年住房方面，我們非常清楚，無論好壞，該業務完全由聲譽驅動。因此，我們的重點仍然是，無論是人員配置水準、照護水準、員工素質，或是日復一日的業務驅動力。這就是為什麼我們花費大量時間專注於在房地產層面創建這些永續模式。

Your next question comes from Jim kammert with Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Jim Kammert。

Just tying some of the previous questions together, if I could. Thinking about the -- those are pretty attractive margins and obviously, they're very savvy operators. And then you tie together the opportunity set in terms of maturity loans on Page 7 of your deck. Are there other wellness or active adult type opportunities within that the $16 billion or so of debt maturities, thinking about your overall margin implications for your portfolio as it changes?

如果可以的話，只是將之前的一些問題連結在一起。想想看——這些都是相當有吸引力的利潤，顯然，他們是非常精明的運營商。然後，您將套牌第 7 頁上的到期貸款機會集連結起來。考慮到您的投資組合變化對整體利潤率的影響，在 160 億美元左右的債務到期日內，是否還有其他健康或活躍的成人類型機會？

That -- I believe that the senior housing loan situation we're talking about is the traditional senior housing product. You can -- for some lender can sort of define this as multifamily, some can senior housing. So there's no way to specifically know. We play into the mid-market segment of that active adult wellness housing segment. .

那——我認為我們所說的老年房屋貸款情況是傳統的老年住房產品。你可以——因為有些貸方可以將其定義為多戶住宅，有些可以定義為高級住房。所以沒有辦法具體知道。我們涉足活躍的成人健康住房領域的中端市場。 。

You think about there are 4 large players in that space that we know of is -- there are others, but the 4 major ones that we know of, Clover, (inaudible), Sparrow and Affinity, and all 4 of them are existing Welltower partners today. As I have mentioned before, I believe in going deep, not going broad. If we find more opportunities, we will obviously see how that stacks up against our growth potentials, et cetera but we are definitely focused on growing our business.

你想想我們所知道的這個領域有4 個大的參與者——還有其他的，但是我們所知道的4 個主要的參與者，Clover、（聽不清楚）、Sparrow 和Affinity，而且所有4個都是現有的Welltower今天的合​​作夥伴。正如我之前提到的，我相信要深入，而不是廣泛。如果我們找到更多機會，我們顯然會看到這如何與我們的成長潛力相結合，等等，但我們肯定會專注於發展我們的業務。

And I think you would say starting this business 6 years ago to about 25,000 units today, we have done a pretty good job of it. But growth for growth sake is something that I just can't get my head around. Our job is to create long-term shareholder value compounding on a par share basis is what we are after. So we'll see if we can do it. But I would be optimistic that wellness housing over a period of time, will become a very significant portion of (inaudible) portfolio.

我想你可能會說，從 6 年前開始這項業務到今天大約 25,000 台，我們做得相當不錯。但為了成長而成長是我無法理解的事。我們的工作是創造長期股東價值，以每股面值為基礎來實現複利，這就是我們所追求的目標。所以我們會看看是否能做到。但我樂觀地認為，在一段時間內，健康住房將成為（聽不清楚）投資組合的一個非常重要的部分。

Your next question comes from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Austin Wurschmidt。

Shankh, just kind of touching again on the investment pipeline and all the factors you've laid out today of -- and previously as to why that opportunity continues to expand. I guess I'm curious how big the investment pipeline you see today is sort of fee simple real estate deals versus the credit opportunities and how much of that expansion that you've seen in the investment pipeline more recently is a function of the credit opportunity side versus the more traditional fee simple?

尚赫，再次談到投資管道和您今天列出的所有因素，以及之前提到的為什麼這個機會繼續擴大。我想我很好奇，您今天看到的投資管道有多大是簡單的房地產交易與信貸機會相比，以及您最近在投資管道中看到的擴張有多少是信貸機會的函數與更傳統的收費方式相比，簡單嗎？

Austin, I just want to make sure I understand your questions. A lot of opportunity that we are seeing are driven by current existing owners' credit situation, whether that's rate caps, whether that's LTV, whether that's DSCR, whether that's refi. So it's driven by credit situations on that end. How we execute that on our end could be credit or could be equity, and vast majority of what we have done is equity opportunities. But we are interested in the private credit side as an equity owner. I've said this many, many times that we're just not lenders, we are owner of those properties at the last dollar basis where credit stands, right? So that's how we think about it.

奧斯汀，我只是想確保我理解你的問題。我們看到的許多機會都是由當前現有業主的信用狀況所驅動的，無論是利率上限、LTV、DSCR 還是再融資。所以它是由這方面的信貸狀況所驅動的。我們最終的執行方式可能是信用，也可能是股權，而我們所做的絕大多數都是股權機會。但我們對作為股權所有者的私人信貸方面感興趣。我已經說過很多很多次了，我們只是不是貸款人，我們是這些財產的所有者，以信用的最後美元為基礎，對嗎？這就是我們的想法。

In other words, that we're very comfortable taking back the keys if the buyer decides to -- the owner decides to do so. However, vast majority of our execution on our end is on the equity side, though we remain very interested for the right opportunities on the -- in the -- to play in the credit stack. However, I will tell you, we never loan against assets at a large dollar value at a given location for a product that we do not want to own. That is not what we do. So that's something that's very interesting for you to sort of think through.

換句話說，如果買家決定——業主決定這樣做，我們很樂意收回鑰匙。然而，我們的絕大多數執行都是在股權方面，儘管我們仍然對在信用堆疊中發揮作用的正確機會非常感興趣。然而，我會告訴你，我們絕不會在給定地點以大額美元價值的資產為我們不想擁有的產品提供貸款。那不是我們所做的。所以這對你來說是非常值得思考的事情。

Your next question comes from Michael Griffin with Citigroup.

您的下一個問題來自花旗集團的邁克爾·格里芬。

It's Nick Joseph here in for Michael. Shankh, you've obviously talked about the robust acquisition opportunities a lot on the call and then the multiyear growth that you expect from senior sales. And so curious how you are seeing competition for both assets and loans? Is this attracting additional capital into the space? And then also just similar question on the development side. Obviously, we haven't seen development pick up yet, but given the multiyear growth outlook, when would you expect that to start to pick back up?

尼克·約瑟夫代替麥可。 Shankh，您顯然在電話會議上多次談到了強勁的收購機會，以及您對高級銷售人員的多年增長的期望。您很好奇您如何看待資產和貸款的競爭？這是否會吸引更多資本進入該領域？然後在開發方面也有類似的問題。顯然，我們還沒有看到發展回升，但考慮到多年的成長前景，您預計什麼時候會開始回升？

Yes. I think from a competition perspective, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, most of the -- all of the transactions that we have executed on, they have been privately negotiated directly with the sellers. So it's not that we're participating in auctions or anything like that. And a big part of that is there is really no other clarity in the market. So we're not seeing any competition really. And then I think, remind me again, what was your second question? .

是的。我認為，從競爭的角度來看，正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，我們執行的大部分交易都是直接與賣家私下談判的。所以我們並不是參加拍賣或類似的事情。其中很大一部分原因是市場上確實沒有其他明確的情況。所以我們實際上沒有看到任何競爭。然後我想，再提醒我，你的第二個問題是什麼？ 。

Let me answer that question. That was the development question. Nick, we put out Page 8 in our slide decks that could be informative from thinking about this question. If you think about there are some interesting things to think through. One, let's just talk about things that we all know. Cost of construction is up significantly. Cost of capital, you just think about it as senior housing development loan today, if you can get one, good luck with that. Even we're struggling to get one if we need one is a 350, 400 over. So you're talking about your debt cost of capital in the 9s and the 10s, right? No, we haven't seen a development pro forma that works. That's sort of a financial aspect you guys know then obviously think through what it takes to an average well, I'm not talking in the middle of Manhattan, West L.A., West side of Boston, places like that. An average with our location in a very wealthy micro markets, in East Coast, West Coast or locations like that probably takes 2 to 3 years of redevelopment and you know that it takes a couple of years of construction after that.

讓我回答這個問題。這就是發展問題。尼克，我們在幻燈片中發布了第 8 頁，思考這個問題可能會提供豐富的資訊。如果您考慮一下，您會發現一些有趣的事情需要思考。一，我們只談談我們都知道的事情。建設成本大幅上升。資金成本，你今天就把它想像成高級住房開發貸款，如果你能得到一個，祝你好運。即使我們正在努力獲得一個，如果我們需要一個超過 350、400 的。所以你說的是 9 和 10 的債務資本成本，對吧？不，我們還沒有看到有效的開發形式。這是一種財務方面的問題，你們知道，然後顯然要考慮平均油井需要什麼，我說的不是在曼哈頓中部、洛杉磯西部、波士頓西側，諸如此類的地方。我們位於東海岸、西海岸或類似地區的非常富裕的微型市場，平均可能需要 2 到 3 年的重建時間，而且您知道，此後還需要幾年的建設時間。

But what is more interesting that we have noticed is last 12 to 18 months that a lot of the changes that happened because of what I just described to you in the platforms that have developed most of the senior housing assets, they have been dismantled. So if you look at Page 8, we have added something for you to sort of ponder over is the first thing that needs to happen if people can find money and if they think it's a good thing to do is to build back the human capital side before you think about the financial capital side.

但更有趣的是，我們注意到，在過去的12 到18 個月裡，由於我剛才向大家描述的情況，在開發了大部分高級住房資產的平台上發生了很多變化，它們已經被拆除了。因此，如果您查看第 8 頁，我們添加了一些內容供您思考，如果人們能夠找到資金，並且如果他們認為這是一件好事，那麼首先需要做的就是重建人力資本方面在考慮金融資本方面之前。

The last thing I will leave you with to think about, my understanding is developers build or develop product to sell at a profit when majority of the product traded in last 3 years at $0.70 on the dollar, what confidence do you have then when you build a product for a $1 that you will get $1.30? I don't think the confidence will be very high on the equity side. And obviously, you take out financing when there is no of an acquisition financing because the rollover we just described in the previous one, we think development in any meaningful way is years away. But again, as I said, we don't know the future. That's what seems logical. We'll see what the future plays out.

我要留給您思考的最後一件事是，我的理解是，開發人員構建或開發產品以賺取利潤，而大多數產品在過去3 年中的交易價格為0.70 美元，那麼當您構建時您有什麼信心1 美元的產品您將獲得 1.30 美元？我認為股票方面的信心不會很高。顯然，當沒有收購融資時，你會進行融資，因為我們在上一篇中剛剛描述的展期，我們認為任何有意義的方式的發展都需要數年時間。但正如我所說，我們不知道未來。這似乎是合乎邏輯的。我們將看看未來會發生什麼。

Your next question comes from Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的麥克·穆勒。

Yes. I guess following up on development. For the Affinity development program, how soon do you think we could see starts there? And is there a way to size up how big the annual investment outlay could be that you could ramp up to?

是的。我想後續發展。對於 Affinity 開發計劃，您認為我們多久可以看到啟動？有沒有辦法衡量您可以增加的年度投資支出有多大？

Mike. So my -- of course, my answer to Nick's question was focused on senior housing development as in what you understand as a regular senior housing product. Affinity or wellness housing, these are apartments, right? These are not what care gets delivered. So these are housing product, these are a rental housing product. How can it be. I'll tell you probably if you think about it, Nikhil said, average age is 8 years, the portfolio size is 25. So just call it 3, 4 starts a year, something like that would be something that I would expect. But we don't know. It depends on where the product is year-over-year, what the current pipeline is, but something like that can be expected over time.

麥克風。當然，我對尼克問題的回答集中在老年住房開發上，就像你所理解的常規老年住房產品一樣。親和住宅或健康住宅，這些都是公寓，對嗎？這些不是提供的護理。所以這些是住房產品，這些是租賃住房產品。怎麼會這樣。尼基爾說，如果你想一想，我可能會告訴你，平均年齡是8 歲，投資組合規模是25。所以就稱之為每年3、4 次啟動吧，類似的事情是我所期望的。但我們不知道。這取決於產品的同比情況、目前的產品線是什麼，但隨著時間的推移，類似的情況是可以預期的。

Your next question comes from John Pawlowski with Green Street.

您的下一個問題來自 Green Street 的 John Pawlowski。

John, I was curious if you could share a current stat on average age of move-in for your traditional senior housing portfolio, how that compares to pre-COVID? And just any big shifts you guys are seeing in terms of the demographics coming in the door or the behavior of the current tenants again versus pre-COVID would love to hear.

約翰，我很好奇您能否分享一下您傳統高級住房投資組合的平均入住年齡的當前統計數據，與新冠疫情之前相比如何？你們所看到的任何重大轉變，無論是人口統計還是當前租戶的行為與新冠疫情之前相比，都希望聽到。

Yes, that's a good question. And what I am seeing is a little bit longer stays. As far as for the details of that, I don't have that specific information. I can look to see if I can get it and get it back to you off-line.

是的，這是一個好問題。我看到的是停留時間更長。至於具體情況，我不掌握具體資訊。我可以查看是否可以獲得並離線返回給您。

John, I'll just add that if you look at the coming out of the pandemic, average age and acuity went up, right? Just coming out of the pandemic in sort of first 3, 6, something like that months where we've seen the acuity has gone up and the average age has gone up. As we sort of things have normalized, I will say, we're hearing more and more comments from our operating partners that average age is coming down and length of stay because of that acuity is coming down, but the length of stay is going up because of that.

約翰，我想補充一點，如果你看看大流行的結束，平均年齡和敏銳度都上升了，對嗎？剛走出疫情的前三、六個月，我們看到敏銳度有所提高，平均年齡也有所提高。我想說，隨著我們的事情已經正常化，我們從我們的營運合作夥伴那裡聽到越來越多的評論，即平均年齡正在下降，由於敏銳度正在下降，停留時間正在下降，但停留時間正在增加因為這個。

Your next question comes from Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部門的邁克爾·卡羅爾。

I'm impressed with your guys' occupancy gains reaccelerating. Is that mostly driven by move-ins coming in? Or is it kind of the dynamic that you're talking about in the last question related to move-outs as you're seeing longer length of stay. So maybe move-outs are trending a little bit lower, too, helping that occupancy gain reaccelerate in 2024?

我對你們的入住率成長重新加速印象深刻。這主要是由遷入造成的嗎？或者這是否是您在上一個與遷出相關的問題中談論的動態，因為您看到的停留時間更長。那麼，遷出率是否也呈現下降趨勢，有助於 2024 年入住率重新加速成長？

Yes. So Michael, let me try to answer that question. I was just looking at this a couple of days ago. Interestingly, as we looked at the fourth quarter data, is obviously, we're talking about the contract sort of seasonal trends that we have seen in fourth quarter, specifically looking at that, both move-ins and move-outs were better. So we have seen better moving rates moving trends and we have seen better move-out trends. So that sort of both created this an unusual seasonal pattern.

是的。邁克爾，讓我嘗試回答這個問題。我幾天前才在看這個。有趣的是，當我們查看第四季度的數據時，顯然，我們正在談論我們在第四季度看到的合約類季節性趨勢，特別是看，遷入和遷出都更好。因此，我們看到了更好的搬家率移動趨勢，我們也看到了更好的遷出趨勢。因此，這兩者創造了一種不尋常的季節性模式。

As you have noted, not only the quarter was kind of interesting or, frankly, conforming in a positive way from a seasonality standpoint. But what happened intra-quarter was even been more confounding because as you go sort of get through more -- deeper and deeper into winter, we see the business slows down just seasonally and this year exactly opposite happened. So what's the reason, just from a pure math perspective, as I said, both move-ins and move-outs are better, but obviously, we're not projecting that in the future, but we'll see how it plays out as we get through the year.

正如您所指出的，不僅這個季度有點有趣，或者坦率地說，從季節性的角度來看，它以積極的方式符合。但季度內發生的事情甚至更令人困惑，因為隨著你經歷越來越多的冬天，我們看到業務只是季節性放緩，而今年的情況恰恰相反。那麼原因是什麼，正如我所說，從純粹的數學角度來看，遷入和遷出都更好，但顯然，我們不會在未來預測這一點，但我們會看到它如何發揮作用我們度過了這一年。

Your next question comes from Rich Anderson with Wedbush.

你的下一個問題來自里奇·安德森和韋德·布希。

So I guess a question for John and the optimization process that you're going through skilled of senior housing. A lot of it is sort of -- it's very interesting and believable the work that you're putting into it, but yet to be sort of quantified. And I'm curious if very soon or in some reasonable period of time that we might see sort of this optimization a new line item on your slide Page 19, where you're bringing some of the work into real dollars and cents in terms of the effort because right now, it's not really something you can model. And I wonder if that will be more in the way of expense savings, which I would expect or maybe to be less frictional vacancy, so it would impact the revenue side. I'm just curious if you could sort of triangulate at all, putting some quantified numbers into your effort or when that might come for all of us to look at?

所以我想問約翰一個問題，以及您正在經歷的高級住房優化過程。其中很多是——你投入的工作非常有趣且可信，但尚未量化。我很好奇，是否很快或在某個合理的時間內，我們可能會在幻燈片第 19 頁上看到這種優化的新行項目，您將在其中將一些工作轉化為實際的美元和美分努力，因為現在，這不是真正可以建模的東西。我想知道這是否會更多地節省開支，我預計這可能會減少摩擦性空缺，因此這會影響收入方面。我只是好奇你是否可以進行三角測量，將一些量化的數字投入到你的努力中，或者什麼時候可以讓我們所有人看看？

Great question. I -- as you know, I tend to avoid a lot of details because everyone tends to copy things and it's better to execute. I think what you're seeing in our numbers there's real numbers coming through. So it's not just discussing it. You're seeing it in the output. But I do appreciate you want to get some more specifics. You mentioned frictional vacancy, we're nowhere close to that right now. The opportunity to just literally increase vacancy without worry or concern about frictional vacancy is there all day long. And so there is really both.

很好的問題。如你所知，我傾向於避免很多細節，因為每個人都傾向於複製東西，而且最好執行。我認為你在我們的數字中看到的是真實的數字。所以這不僅僅是討論。您可以在輸出中看到它。但我非常感謝您想了解更多細節。你提到了摩擦性空缺，我們現在還遠遠沒有做到這一點。增加職缺的機會整天都在，而不必擔心或擔心摩擦性職位空缺。所以確實兩者都有。

There's some level of opportunities on the expenses but that really relates to productivity because, again, as I said, over and over, our focus is on improving the customer experience. It's not about trying to cut anything. So to the extent there's some productivity opportunities there, which the platform is focused at in a sense of -- I mentioned last time, sometimes it takes hours to move someone in because of the paperwork and having a unified platform will solve for that and eliminate that wasted time, enabling our staff to spend more time with the customers.

費用方面存在一定程度的機會，但這確實與生產力有關，因為正如我一遍又一遍所說，我們的重點是改善客戶體驗。這並不是要試圖削減任何東西。因此，在某種程度上，那裡存在一些生產力機會，從某種意義上說，該平台重點關注這些機會——我上次提到過，有時由於文書工作而需要幾個小時才能將某人調入，而擁有一個統一的平台將解決這個問題並消除這浪費了時間，使我們的員工能夠花更多的時間與客戶在一起。

A lot of the opportunity, though, really is focused on the revenue side whether it'd be increasing occupancy because we're just simply out executing, frankly, we're answering the phones and delivering that quality customer experience that's driving occupancy or because we're changing the value proposition and the market says this is worth more. Hopefully, that helps.

不過，很多機會確實集中在收入方面，無論是增加入住率，因為我們只是在執行，坦率地說，我們正在接聽電話並提供優質的客戶體驗，從而推動入住率，或者因為我們正在改變價值主張，市場表明這更有價值。希望這會有所幫助。

Your next question comes from Nick Yulico with Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的尼克尤利科。

Maybe a question for Tim on the balance sheet. If you look at a substantial amount of cash at the end of the quarter and then the outlined to have another $1 billion of asset sales and guidance. It just seems like relative to the acquisitions you've announced so far that you're sitting in like a significant excess cash situation. So maybe you could just give us a feel for how you're thinking about that. I don't know if there's any planned debt repayments or anything else we should be thinking about there?

也許提姆有一個關於資產負債表的問題。如果你看一下季度末的大量現金，然後計劃再進行 10 億美元的資產銷售和指引。相對於您迄今為止宣布的收購，您似乎處於現金嚴重過剩的境地。所以也許你可以讓我們了解一下你是如何看待這個問題的。我不知道是否有任何計劃償還債務或其他我們應該考慮的事情？

Yes. Thanks, Nick. So you're correct on the excess debt side -- or I'm sorry the cash side, I will highlight that. As we indicated in the past, we have $1.35 billion of unsecured maturities here in the first quarter. So $450 million of which matured in January and we paid off and the remainder will be paid off in March. So that's one component of the uses. And I think what you're hearing from the rest of our team today is a lot of optimism around opportunities to put cash to work. So I think the balance sheet is very well positioned for that.

是的。謝謝，尼克。所以你在超額債務方面是正確的——或者我很抱歉在現金方面，我會強調這一點。正如我們過去所指出的，第一季我們有 13.5 億美元的無擔保到期債券。因此，其中 4.5 億美元在一月到期，我們還清了，其餘的將在三月還清。這是用途的組成部分之一。我認為您今天從我們團隊的其他成員那裡聽到的是對現金投入機會的樂觀態度。所以我認為資產負債表非常適合這一點。

Your next question comes from Wes Golladay with Baird.

您的下一個問題來自韋斯·戈拉迪和貝爾德。

Could you speak to the share gains you might be seeing in senior housing versus the local competitive set when you look at that 330 basis points of expansion this year?

當您考慮今年 330 個基點的擴張時，您能否談談與當地競爭產品相比，您可能會看到老年住房的份額增長？

Wes, I missed the first part of your question. Can you please repeat the question and get closer to your phone?

韋斯，我錯過了你問題的第一部分。您能重複一下這個問題並靠近您的手機嗎？

Yes. Okay. Sorry, can you hear me now, Shankh?

是的。好的。抱歉，你現在聽得到我說話嗎，尚赫？

Yes.

是的。

Can you speak to the share gains you might be seeing in the senior housing versus the local competitive set? You did mention the 330 basis points this year, which is a record year.

您能談談您在高級住房中與當地競爭性住房相比可能看到的份額增長嗎？你確實提到了今年的330個基點，這是創紀錄的一年。

Yes. So look, we have a very large portfolio. It's hard to speak in generalities and obviously, across 3 countries. But if you look at all other industry data that you will see our portfolio has meaningfully outperformed both in rate growth as well as occupancy growth. But what's new about that. But you can probably look at the NIC data and other set to decide that -- get to that point. But as I said, we don't know what the future will give us. Our -- what we endeavor, what I promise to you that we'll put 200% effort to outperform the market and that's what we are trying to do.

是的。所以看，我們有一個非常大的投資組合。顯然，在 3 個國家，很難籠統地講。但如果您查看所有其他行業數據，您會發現我們的投資組合在成長率和入住率成長方面均明顯優於其他產業。但這有什麼新鮮事。但您可能可以查看 NIC 資料和其他資料集來決定 — 達到這一點。但正如我所說，我們不知道未來會為我們帶來什麼。我們的努力，我向你們承諾，我們將付出 200% 的努力來跑贏市場，而這就是我們正在努力做的事情。

And so far, what I've seen, I mean, John mentioned a stat that if we do achieve our NOI growth guidance in the SHOP portfolio this year, there's no guarantee we will. But if we do, that will be 75% compounded growth over 3 years, right? There is -- I don't believe there is any precedence of that in a large broad sort of a portfolio. So we are meaningfully outperforming the market. And that gap is widening, and I think it will continue to widen.

到目前為止，我所看到的，我的意思是，約翰提到了一項統計數據，即如果我們今年確實實現了 SHOP 投資組合的 NOI 成長指導，則不能保證我們會實現。但如果我們這樣做，三年複合成長率將達到 75%，對吧？我不認為在廣泛的投資組合中存在任何優先權。因此，我們的表現明顯優於市場。這種差距正在擴大，而且我認為這種差距還會繼續擴大。

Your next question comes from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的胡安·薩納布里亞 (Juan Sanabria)。

Just a question on pricing trends for new customers. One, how has that evolved through the fourth quarter, just to think about that relative to occupancy. And I guess the second part would be, you mentioned the operating leverage changes as occupancy improves and you're fully staffed. So how should we think about -- how are you thinking about the trade-off between occupancy and price going into the rest of '24 and into '25?

只是關於新客戶的定價趨勢的問題。第一，第四季的情況如何演變，想想相對於入住率而言。我想第二部分是，您提到隨著入住率的提高並且您的人員配備齊全，營運槓桿會發生變化。那麼我們應該如何考慮——您如何考慮 24 年剩餘時間和 25 年入住率和價格之間的權衡？

Let me try to answer that question. So fourth quarter, if you look at -- I'm actually pretty pleased with pricing trends. As you know that we have a lot of the portfolio sort of relatively turned through the year, right? So we have -- and so if you just look at the Sunrise situation that I talked about, RevPOR growth was up 6.8%. That's a very, very strong number. And with that kind of occupancy growth, you don't expect that kind of numbers. But put that aside, let's just think about what next year looks like, and we passed the Jan 1. A lot of operators in Jan 1, a lot of operators sort of have moved from Jan 1 to the February 1. I think I talked about that 2 years ago. Just -- not just after holidays, sort of moved a little bit out of that.

讓我嘗試回答這個問題。所以，如果你看看第四季的價格趨勢，我其實非常滿意。如您所知，我們有很多投資組合在這一年中相對週轉，對嗎？所以，如果你看看我談到的日出情況，RevPOR 成長了 6.8%。這是一個非常非常強勁的數字。隨著入住率的成長，你不會想到會出現這樣的數字。但拋開這一點，讓我們想想明年會是什麼樣子，我們已經過了1 月1 日。1 月1 日有很多運營商，很多運營商已經從1 月1 日轉移到了2 月1 日。我想我談到了大約是2年前的事。只是——不只是在假期之後，有點擺脫這種狀態。

So just generally speaking, talk about the half of the portfolio that's sort of rolling in the Q1, specifically rather than just talking Jan 1. I would say existing customer rent increases has been relatively in the same ballpark of last year, but probably 100 to 150 basis points lower. They certainly feels right around that level. So if it was 10 last year, it's 9 this year, something like that. I'm not saying [don't hold only] specific. Some operators have done more than 10 last year. So generally speaking, in that range of probably 100, 150 basis points lower. And we will see what the rest of the portfolio does as we go through the year.

所以一般來說，談論第一季度滾動的投資組合的一半，特別是而不是僅僅談論 1 月 1 日。我想說，現有客戶租金的增長相對與去年持平，但可能是 100 到 100 美元。下降150個基點。他們確實感覺就在這個水平附近。如果去年是 10 個，那麼今年就是 9 個，類似的情況。我並不是說[不只]具體。一些運營商去年已經做了10多個。一般來說，這個範圍可能會低 100、150 個基點。我們將在這一年中看到該投資組合的其餘部分的表現。

Just also remember RevPOR is not just a function of ECRI or existing customer rent increases, but it's also a function of sort of market rent, right, what that your mark-to-market. And we will see -- we don't know. Usually speaking, market rents are lower in Q1 and sort of goes up from the summer months. And we'll see how this all plays out. There is a math aside, we feel that the second part of your question, which is a brilliant question, sort of thinking about in this kind of occupancy, just call it, mid-80s occupancy, what is that sort of efficient frontier pricing versus occupancy? That question is hard to answer on a conference call, but I will tell you what you are going after is a very important one because how operating leverage because of operating leverage, how your incremental margins work.

還要記住，RevPOR 不僅僅是 ECRI 或現有客戶租金增加的函數，而且也是市場租金的函數，對吧，你的市價是多少。我們將會看到——我們不知道。通常來說，第一季的市場租金較低，但較夏季有所上升。我們將看看這一切如何展開。除了數學之外，我們認為你問題的第二部分是一個很好的問題，在這種佔用率中進行了思考，就稱其為 80 年代中期的佔用率，這種有效的前沿定價與佔用？這個問題很難在電話會議上回答，但我會告訴你你所追求的是什麼是一個非常重要的問題，因為經營槓桿如何運作，你的增量利潤如何運作。

While it is in the late '70s, early '80s, it is obvious that you should go after the rate, not the occupancy that may not be true in the mid-'80s, where your optimized level could be some occupancy some rates. We'll see how this plays out. But we are -- we think it's our guess as we sit here today and nothing but a guess, that will be largely in the same ballpark of close to double-digit revenue growth that we have seen last year.

雖然現在是70 年代末、80 年代初，但很明顯，您應該追求的是房價，而不是入住率，而在80 年代中期可能不正確，此時您的優化水平可能是一些入住率和一些房價。我們將看看結果如何。但我們認為這是我們今天坐在這裡的猜測，只不過是猜測，這將在很大程度上與我們去年看到的接近兩位數的收入增長相同。

Your final question comes from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

你的最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的羅納德·卡姆德姆。

I just want to sort of close the thought on the occupancy just because the sequential sort of improvement as well as the guidance acceleration. Coming out in a different way, is this -- like how much of this should we think of as an industry-wide phenomenon where we should expect other operators to see occupancy accelerate versus sort of John's operating platform, creating that alpha is sort of part one. Part two would be, when you think about that occupancy recovery slide in your deck, are we at the point where we should start thinking about 91% as the new target versus -- or the 88% because based on the guidance, you're going to be at 85% at the end of the year. Just trying to get a sense of how much conviction and growing conviction you have in getting back to that peak occupancy level?

我只是想結束對佔用率的思考，因為連續的改進以及引導加速。以不同的方式出現，是這樣的——就像我們應該將其視為一種全行業現象，我們應該期望其他運營商看到與約翰的運營平台相比入住率加速，創造阿爾法是其中的一部分一。第二部分是，當您考慮甲板上的入住率恢復投影片時，我們是否應該開始考慮 91% 作為新目標，而不是 88%，因為根據指導，您將在年底達到85%。只是想了解一下您對回到高峰入住率水準有多大的信心和不斷增強的信心？

Ron, let me try to answer that question. The second part is an easier one. If all we do is we end up at 91% occupancy, which is sort of 2015 achieved and we, frankly speaking, we didn't add a lot of value. Because if you think about -- I don't know, there's -- pick a number, 2 years, 3 years, whatever your number of years is, demand supply, I think you understand starts to get materially better starting 25, 26, right? Sort of -- and the delivery schedule, if you look at it, you know what the starts are, which is not much. right? You can see the demand-supply imbalance gets really interesting next year and the year after, right?

羅恩，讓我試著回答這個問題。第二部分比較容易。如果我們所做的只是最終達到 91% 的入住率，這相當於 2015 年的水平，坦白說，我們並沒有增加太多價值。因為如果你考慮——我不知道，有——選擇一個數字，2年、3年，無論你的年數是多少，需求供應，我想你明白從25年、26年開始，情況會開始變得更好，正確的？有點像——還有交付時間表，如果你看一下，你就知道開始是什麼，這並不多。正確的？你可以看到明年和後年的供需失衡變得非常有趣，對嗎？

So at least we can say that because we don't know if there's other people that without our knowledge is building, it's unlikely, but we don't know. But at least we can sort of see next 2 years with a reasonable clarity. And we don't believe that frictional vacancy of this business is 9%, right, John? Is that...?

所以至少我們可以說，因為我們不知道是否還有其他人在我們不知情的情況下正在建造，所以這是不可能的，但我們不知道。但至少我們可以相當清楚地預見未來兩年的情況。我們不認為該業務的摩擦空缺率為 9%，對吧，約翰？就是它...？

It's absolutely not. It's a financial calculation, and it is not 9%. It is substantially less. So that's just not an option.

絕對不是。這是財務計算，不是9%。其數量要少得多。所以這不是一個選擇。

So do we believe that will end up at 91%, I'll be very disappointed if that's the case, but we shall see what the market gives us. What was the first part of your question, Ron, that I missed?

那麼我們是否相信最終會達到 91%，如果是這樣的話我會非常失望，但我們將看看市場為我們帶來什麼。羅恩，我錯過了你問題的第一部分是什麼？

Sure. It was just -- so we expect every operator to see occupancy reaccelerate in 2024, or what are you guys doing that's different?

當然。只是 - 所以我們希望每個運營商都能看到 2024 年入住率重新加速，或者你們正在做什麼不同的事情？

Yes. So look, I can't speak for others, right? Clearly, what do I know about others. My promise to you and our fellow shareholders have always been that we will put a 1,000% effort to outperform the market. So far, we have done it, right? I don't think Q4 numbers will be much different. And I think our hope will be that we will continue to do so. My confidence in our ability to outperform the average of the industry is widening. I think that gap is widening and my confidence is increasing. But we still have to -- this is February 14. We have to see what the year gives us.

是的。所以聽著，我不能代表別人說話，對嗎？顯然，我對其他人了解多少。我向您和我們的股東們的承諾始終是，我們將付出 1,000% 的努力，跑贏大盤。到目前為止，我們已經做到了，對嗎？我認為第四季的數字不會有太大不同。我認為我們希望我們能夠繼續這樣做。我對我們超越行業平均的能力越來越有信心。我認為差距正在擴大，我的信心也在增強。但我們仍然必須——現在是 2 月 14 日。我們必須看看這一年為我們帶來了什麼。

There are no further questions at this time. This will conclude the Welltower Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you all for joining us today. You may now disconnect.

目前沒有其他問題。 Welltower 2023 年第四季財報電話會議至此結束。感謝大家今天加入我們。您現在可以斷開連線。