(WELL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Welltower Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to welcome Matt McQueen, General Counsel, to begin the call. Matt, over to you.

    感謝您的耐心等待,歡迎參加 Welltower 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。現在我歡迎總法律顧問馬特麥奎因開始通話。馬特,交給你了。

  • Matthew Grant McQueen - Executive VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary

    Matthew Grant McQueen - Executive VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary

  • Thank you, and good morning. As a reminder, certain statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements in the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Although Welltower believes any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, the company can give no assurances that its projected results will be attained. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are detailed in the company's filings with the SEC. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Shankh.

    謝謝你,早安。提醒一下,本次電話會議中所做的某些陳述可能被視為《私人證券訴訟改革法》意義上的前瞻性陳述。儘管 Welltower 認為任何前瞻性陳述均基於合理假設,但該公司不能保證其預期結果將會實現。該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細介紹了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果有重大差異的因素。然後,我會將電話轉給 Shankh。

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Matt, and good morning, everyone. I'll review our third quarter results and capital allocation activities. John will provide an update on performance of our senior housing operating and outpatient medical portfolios, and Tim will walk you through our Triple-Net businesses, balance sheet highlights and revised guidance. Nikhil will also participate in the Q&A section of the call.

    謝謝你,馬特,大家早安。我將回顧我們第三季的業績和資本配置活動。約翰將提供我們高級住房運營和門診醫療投資組合業績的最新信息,蒂姆將引導您了解我們的三網業務、資產負債表要點和修訂後的指導。尼基爾也將參加電話會議的問答部分。

  • Against a backdrop of increasingly uncertain macroeconomic outlook, I'm pleased to report another strong operating result which continue to exceed our expectations.

    在宏觀經濟前景日益不確定的背景下,我很高興地報告另一項強勁的經營業績,繼續超越我們的預期。

  • Our Senior Housing portfolio posted another quarter of exceptional revenue growth, which continues to approximate double-digit levels, driven by both strong pricing power and occupancy build. We're delighted to report that occupancy growth not only accelerated through Q3, but also that September occupancy gains marked the highest level we have seen over the last 2 years.

    在強大的定價能力和入住率成長的推動下,我們的高級住房投資組合又實現了一個季度的出色收入成長,繼續接近兩位數的水平。我們很高興地報告,入住率成長不僅在第三季加速,而且 9 月的入住率增幅也創下了過去兩年來的最高水準。

  • From a pricing standpoint, we continue to achieve outsized rate increases as reflected by nearly 7% growth in RevPOR or unit revenue. As you may recall, we previously mentioned that last year, one of our largest operator pulled forward its typical January increase to September 2022. This year, the same operator elected to maintain its historical cadence of rate increases and will therefore wait until January of 2024 to push through rate increases.

    從定價的角度來看,我們繼續實現大幅利率成長,RevPOR 或單位收入成長近 7% 就反映了這一點。您可能還記得,我們​​之前提到過,去年,我們最大的運營商之一將其典型的1 月加息推遲至2022 年9 月。今年,同一運營商選擇維持其歷史加息節奏,因此將等到2024 年1 月推動升息。

  • As a result, reported pricing of Q3 this year may appear lower than what we are experiencing in the business and it bears repeating that our operators' pricing power remains strong. The story on the expense side is similar to that of our top line and result continues to outperform our elevated expectations. We reported 2.4% expense per occupied room growth or unit expense growth, the lowest reported ExpPOR growth in the company's recorded history.

    因此,今年第三季的報告定價可能會低於我們在行業中經歷的定價,值得重申的是,我們營運商的定價能力仍然強勁。費用方面的情況與我們的營收相似,結果持續超出我們較高的預期。我們報告每間佔用房間的費用增長或單位費用增長為 2.4%,這是該公司有史以來報告的最低 ExpPOR 增長。

  • This is largely driven by a 2.7% increase in compensation per occupied room, which represents a substantial step down in recent quarters. This combination of strong revenue and controlled expense growth has generated 333 basis points of same-store margin expansion, yet another record for the company as it marks the highest level of quarterly margin improvement in our recorded history. And our SHOP NOI margin of 25.6% is the highest level of profitability we achieved since pre-COVID.

    這主要是由於每間入住房間的補償增加了 2.7%,這代表著最近幾季的大幅下降。強勁的收入和可控的費用成長相結合,使同店利潤率擴大了 333 個基點,這是該公司的另一項記錄,因為它標誌著我們有史以來季度利潤率改善的最高水平。我們的 SHOP NOI 利潤率為 25.6%,是自新冠疫情爆發以來我們實現的最高獲利水準。

  • NOI growth for the quarter came in 26.1%, our fourth consecutive quarter of 20-plus percent NOI growth and the second highest level of growth in the company's recorded history. While we are pleased that margins are moving in the right direction, we're also mindful that our profitability remains significantly below pre-COVID levels and below where we believe the industry can attract external capital investment on a long-term basis.

    本季的 NOI 成長率為 26.1%,這是我們連續第四季度 NOI 成長率超過 20%,也是公司有記錄以來的第二高成長率。雖然我們很高興利潤率正朝著正確的方向發展,但我們也注意到,我們的獲利能力仍大大低於新冠疫情前的水平,也低於我們認為該行業可以長期吸引外部資本投資的水平。

  • Our managers strive to deliver a superior product, experience and provide valuable choices for our retired seniors. Our product remains highly affordable at the high end while we operate in the U.S. and the U.K. and they should continue to focus on highly differentiated services, even if that means rate increases need to remain at the elevated levels.

    我們的經理致力於提供卓越的產品、體驗,並為我們的退休老年人提供有價值的選擇。當我們在美國和英國運營時,我們的高端產品仍然非常實惠,他們應該繼續專注於高度差異化的服務,即使這意味著費率上漲需要保持在較高水平。

  • As I've said many times, cutting corners is not in our DNA. We recommend that our operating partners serve fewer residents well than serve more of them poorly. As a result, one of our key items to focus is to work with the right operator to improve the customer and the employee experience. We believe that doing so will improve the experience of all (inaudible) all of our stakeholders. Conversely, we'll be very disappointed if our operators take the path of least resistance, which ultimately will impact resident and employee satisfaction.

    正如我多次說過的,偷工減料並不是我們的基因。我們建議我們的營運合作夥伴為較少的居民提供良好的服務,而不是為更多的居民提供糟糕的服務。因此,我們要關注的關鍵項目之一是與合適的營運商合作,以改善客戶和員工體驗。我們相信,這樣做將改善我們所有(聽不清楚)所有利害關係人的體驗。相反,如果我們的業者採取阻力最小的方式,我們會非常失望,這最終會影響居民和員工的滿意度。

  • We continue to focus on the delta of RevPOR minus ExpPOR as the single most important operating metric to optimize. While it is too early to comment on anything specific related to 2024, as I sit here today, I believe that the delta of RevPOR minus ExpPOR can expand, which we need to get to a sustainable level of margin.

    我們繼續關注 RevPOR 減去 ExpPOR 的差值,將其作為需要優化的最重要的單一營運指標。雖然現在評論與 2024 年相關的任何具體內容還為時過早,但當我今天坐在這裡時,我相信 RevPOR 減去 ExpPOR 的增量可以擴大,我們需要達到可持續的利潤水平。

  • From a product standpoint, AL continues to outperform IL. And from a geographic standpoint, Canada finally caught up to the level of growth that U.S. and U.K. were experiencing. We have further retailing to do in our Canadian business with our new operating platform being launched in the next few weeks. And going forward, we believe both of our international businesses will be significant contributors to our earnings growth in '24 and '25.

    從產品角度來看,AL 的表現持續優於 IL。從地理角度來看,加拿大最終趕上了美國和英國正在經歷的成長水平。我們的加拿大業務還有進一步的零售業務要做,我們的新營運平台將在未來幾週內推出。展望未來,我們相信我們的兩項國際業務都將為我們 24 年和 25 年的獲利成長做出重大貢獻。

  • From a capital allocation standpoint, we have never been busier. Last quarter, we spoke about a pipeline of $2.3 billion. We closed $1.4 billion in Q3 and roughly another $900 million in October. Additionally, we have another $1 billion of deals just about to cross the finish line.

    從資本配置的角度來看,我們從未如此忙碌。上個季度,我們談到了 23 億美元的管道。我們在第三季關閉了 14 億美元,10 月又關閉了約 9 億美元。此外,我們還有另外 10 億美元的交易即將衝過終點線。

  • Beyond these $1 billion of investments under contract, our pipeline remains large and near-term actionable, but the execution of these deals will depend on our access to capital. The extremely challenged debt and equity market in this higher-for-longer rate environment suggests that this trend will continue and perhaps will get better in '24.

    除了合約規定的這 10 億美元投資之外,我們的管道仍然龐大且近期可採取行動,但這些交易的執行將取決於我們獲得資本的情況。在這種長期較高的利率環境下,債務和股票市場面臨嚴峻的挑戰,這表明這種趨勢將持續下去,並且可能在 2024 年變得更好。

  • We're continuing to see credit evaporate from our investment universe and are selectively pursuing great opportunities in both whole stack and [med stack] levels with highly favorable last dollar exposure. These opportunities have potential to achieve equity returns with basis and credit downside protection typically seen in low-leverage transactions. We're seeing opportunities across product types and geographies with equity investments in U.S. senior housing and credit investment on the SNF side, making up the large worth of opportunities that we're constantly being pinged on.

    我們繼續看到信貸從我們的投資領域中消失,並有選擇地在整個堆疊和[醫療堆疊]層面上尋求巨大的機會,並具有非常有利的最後美元敞口。這些機會有可能實現股本回報,並提供低槓桿交易中常見的基礎和信用下行保護。我們看到了跨產品類型和地理的機會,包括美國高級住房的股權投資和 SNF 的信貸投資,構成了我們不斷關注的大量機會。

  • I want to remind you that we have a 3-dimensional lens through which we measure investment opportunities: risk, reward and duration. Given the substantial rise of real rates over the last 90 days, we have recalibrated these thresholds -- of these 3 thresholds higher. In other words, for the same risk what we need higher returns today than we did 90 days ago or we can do deals with a similar return profile, but with a much lower risk and so forth -- where student of history and markets and cannot find many times when a lot of good has come out of a period of highly -- sharply higher real rates.

    我想提醒您,我們有一個三維鏡頭來衡量投資機會:風險、回報和持續時間。鑑於過去 90 天內實際利率大幅上升,我們重新調整了這些門檻,其中 3 個門檻更高。換句話說,對於同樣的風險,我們今天需要比90 天前更高的回報,或者我們可以處理類似的回報情況,但風險要低得多,等等——歷史和市場的學生無法做到這一點很多時候,在實際利率大幅上升的時期,會帶來許多好處。

  • If real rates continue to grind higher, we'll continue to calibrate our 3 guide post higher. So far, we have no problem achieving these recalibrations as sellers understand the markets have changed and we remain the best at many times, the only hope for liquidity. From a balance sheet perspective, amidst the growing macroeconomic, fiscal and geopolitical uncertainty, we are pleased to have reduced our net debt to adjusted EBITDA to one of the lowest levels in our recorded history, which also represents nearly a 2x decline from just 12 months ago.

    如果實際利率繼續走高,我們將繼續將第三個指導柱調高。到目前為止,我們在實現這些重新調整方面沒有任何問題,因為賣家了解市場已經發生了變化,而我們在很多時候仍然是最好的,這是流動性的唯一希望。從資產負債表的角度來看,在宏觀經濟、財政和地緣政治不確定性不斷增加的情況下,我們很高興將調整後EBITDA 的淨債務減少至我們有記錄以來的最低水平之一,這也比短短12 個月下降了近2 倍前。

  • Our balance sheet strength and flexibility gives us opportunity to remain on offense or provide shelter if the economic environment meaningfully (inaudible) next week. We don't have a clue which direction the wind will blow, but I'm delighted that we don't need fair weather to meet our obligations or grow.

    如果下週經濟環境有意義(聽不清楚),我們的資產負債表實力和靈活性使我們有機會繼續進攻或提供庇護。我們不知道風會朝哪個方向吹,但我很高興我們不需要晴朗的天氣來履行我們的義務或成長。

  • As you all know, a wall of debt maturity in commercial real estate sector is coming exactly at a time when debt capital is (inaudible) the market. We will not be surprised if significant dilutive capital is raised or otherwise, a lot of keys will need to be returned to the lenders.

    眾所周知,商業不動產領域的債務到期牆正是在債務資本(聽不清楚)進入市場的時候到來的。如果籌集大量稀釋資本,我們不會感到驚訝,否則,許多鑰匙將需要退還給貸方。

  • I am certainly grateful to Tim and our best-in-class capital markets team for keeping us ahead of the cadence that Nikhil and I can spend on as we look to capitalize on the best environment for investments that we have ever seen. Year end is shaping up to be extremely busy and Q1 also looks promising if we continue to have access to growth capital. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I want to reiterate that we'll only grow externally if and only if we can grow value accretively on a partial basis for existing shareholders.

    我當然要感謝蒂姆和我們一流的資本市場團隊,他們讓我們領先於尼基爾和我的投資節奏,因為我們希望利用我們所見過的最佳投資環境。年底將非常繁忙,如果我們繼續獲得成長資本,第一季看起來也很有希望。冒著聽起來像是破紀錄的風險,我想重申,只有當且僅當我們能夠在部分現有股東的基礎上增加價值時,我們才會實現外部成長。

  • I hope that you as our shareholders are as excited as I am about our operating results and capital allocation activities. But interestingly, those are not the most exciting areas inside Welltower today. What truly galvanizes us are the exciting prospects of John's operating platform and especially the digital transformation of senior housing industry. As we have discussed ad nauseam, we refused to accept the lack of 21st century business process and technology infrastructure of this primarily people-driven business, where individual communities are on their own island.

    我希望您作為我們的股東和我一樣對我們的經營業績和資本配置活動感到興奮。但有趣的是,這些並不是當今 Welltower 內最令人興奮的區域。真正令我們興奮的是約翰營運平台的令人興奮的前景,尤其是養老產業的數位轉型。正如我們已經討論得令人作嘔的那樣,我們拒絕接受這種主要以人為驅動的企業缺乏 21 世紀的業務流程和技術基礎設施,其中各個社區都在自己的島上。

  • We have made tremendous strides in the last 90 days on the technology backbone of what Welltower 3.0 may look like, and how far we can raise the bar for a resident and employee experience. Welltower's engine room is buzzing with pilots and scaling around traditional technology solutions like from ERP and CRM to advance technology solutions around robotics and artificial intelligence.

    在過去 90 天裡,我們在 Welltower 3.0 的技術支柱以及我們可以在多大程度上提高居民和員工體驗的標準方面取得了巨大進步。 Welltower 的機房擠滿了試點人員,並圍繞傳統技術解決方案(如 ERP 和 CRM)擴展到圍繞機器人和人工智慧的先進技術解決方案。

  • Our goal is to elevate the community experience by delighting the customer and their families and simplify and enhance the employee experience, all of which should lead to occupancy and NOI growth.

    我們的目標是透過取悅客戶及其家人來提升社區體驗,並簡化和增強員工體驗,所有這些都應該導致入住率和 NOI 成長。

  • Then and only then do we have perhaps a shot at earning a long-term sustainable return for our owners, which has been less than satisfactory over the last decade. My partners and I are truly inspired and are hopeful that we're turning the corner to achieve multiyear double-digit compounding growth rate. While supply and demand backdrop is quelled in our favor, we're far more focused on the value-add Alpha from our platform which you, as our fellow owners, have funded to build with our blood, sweat and tears.

    那時,也只有那時,我們才有可能為我們的所有者贏得長期可持續的回報,而在過去的十年裡,我們的回報一直不盡人意。我和我的合作夥伴深受鼓舞,並希望我們能夠扭轉局面,實現多年兩位數的複合成長率。雖然供需背景對我們有利,但我們更關注我們平台的增值阿爾法,作為我們的所有者,你們用我們的血、汗和淚水資助了這個平台。

  • And with that, I'll pass the call over to John.

    然後,我會將電話轉給約翰。

  • John F. Burkart - Executive VP & COO

    John F. Burkart - Executive VP & COO

  • Thank you, Shankh. I know that it sounds like a broken record, but again, another great quarter. Our total portfolio generated 14.1% same-store NOI growth over the prior year's quarter, led by the senior housing operating portfolio with 26.1% year-over-year growth. We are methodically moving forward focused on the customer and employee experience and that is driving results.

    謝謝你,尚赫。我知道這聽起來像是一個破紀錄,但又是一個偉大的季度。我們的總投資組合比去年同期實現了 14.1% 的同店 NOI 成長,其中老年住房營運投資組合領先,年成長 26.1%。我們正在有條不紊地前進,專注於客戶和員工體驗,這正在推動成果。

  • We started with brute force, effectively relying on our raw labor to identify issues and opportunities. We continue to improve the systems and processes and organize the data to make data-driven decisions to improve the business, and we're just at the beginning.

    我們從蠻力開始,有效地依靠我們的原始勞動力來發現問題和機會。我們不斷改進系統和流程,組織資料以做出資料驅動的決策,以改善業務,而我們才剛開始。

  • The medical office portfolio's third quarter same-store NOI growth was 3.4% over the prior year's quarter. Same-store occupancy was 95%, while retention remains extremely strong across the portfolio at nearly 93%. The 26.1% third quarter year-over-year NOI increase in our same-store senior housing operating portfolio was a function of 9.8% revenue growth driven by the combination of 6.9% RevPOR growth, 220 basis points of average occupancy gain and moderating expense growth.

    醫療辦公室組合第三季同店 NOI 比去年同期成長 3.4%。同店入住率為 95%,而整個產品組合的保留率仍然非常強勁,接近 93%。我們的同店老年住房營運組合第三季 NOI 年成長 26.1%,這是營收成長 9.8% 的結果,而營收成長是由 6.9% RevPOR 成長、平均入住率成長 220 個基點以及費用成長放緩共同推動的。

  • Expenses remain in control coming in at 5.1% for the quarter over the prior year's quarter. The strong revenue growth and expense growth led to substantial margin expansion of 330 basis points. As Shankh has mentioned many times, the marginal increase in expenses as occupancy continues to grow over 80%, is relatively low for obvious reasons. Many of the expenses are fixed.

    本季費用比去年同期成長 5.1%,仍處於控制之中。強勁的收入成長和支出成長導致利潤率大幅成長 330 個基點。正如 Shankh 多次提到的,隨著入住率持續成長 80% 以上,費用邊際成長相對較低,原因顯而易見。許多費用是固定的。

  • Each property has an Executive Director, Head Chef, Maintenance Director, regardless of the occupancy level. The bulk of maintenance, utility and many other costs are largely factored in at 80% occupancy. As a result, our expense POR or expense per occupied room continues to remain low, enabling the business to improve the margins.

    每間飯店都有一位執行董事、主廚、維修總監,不論入住率為何。大部分維護、公用事業和許多其他成本主要考慮在 80% 的入住率。因此,我們的費用 POR 或每間佔用房間的費用繼續保持在較低水平,從而使企業能夠提高利潤率。

  • As Shankh mentioned, our ExpPOR growth for the quarter was 2.4%, the lowest in our recorded history. All 3 of our regions continue to show strong same-store revenue growth, starting with the U.S. at 9.6% and Canada and the U.K. growing at 9.7% and 12.9%, respectively. The strong revenue growth in each region, combined with the expense controls, have led to fantastic NOI growth in the U.S., Canada and the U.K. of 25.4%, 27.1% and 37% respectively.

    正如 Shankh 所提到的,我們本季的 ExpPOR 成長率為 2.4%,是我們有史以來的最低水準。我們所有 3 個地區的同店營收持續呈現強勁成長,其中美國成長 9.6%,加拿大和英國分別成長 9.7% 和 12.9%。每個地區強勁的收入成長,加上費用控制,導緻美國、加拿大和英國的 NOI 分別實現了 25.4%、27.1% 和 37% 的驚人成長。

  • The management transitions continue to perform above expectations. We are grateful to our operating partners who are working so hard to ensure that we achieve the improved operations that we set out to accomplish in our journey to operational excellence. Our operators continue to do an amazing job of managing through the complexities of the business to provide a superior customer and employee experience.

    管理層換屆的表現持續超乎預期。我們感謝我們的營運合作夥伴,他們辛勤工作,以確保我們實現我們在卓越營運之旅中所要實現的改進營運。我們的營運商繼續出色地管理複雜的業務,提供卓越的客戶和員工體驗。

  • Many of our senior customers were born in the 1930s, The Depression. They have worked hard and sacrificed all their life and now they deserve to enjoy the fruits of their labor. The product and services remain very affordable to a large segment of the population who have purchased and paid off their homes years ago, and are now at a point where they can sell their home, live off their assets enjoying a good quality of life during their golden years, which they deserve.

    我們的許多高級客戶出生於 20 世紀 30 年代,經濟大蕭條時期。他們辛苦了一輩子,犧牲了一輩子,現在他們應該享受自己勞動的成果。對於多年前購買並還清房屋的人來說,產品和服務仍然非常實惠,現在他們可以出售房屋,靠資產過活,在他們的一生中享受良好的生活品質。黃金歲月,他們應得的。

  • Our focus with our operating partners on improving the customer and employee experience benefits all stakeholders. For example, our focus on materially reducing agency labor improves both the customer and employee experience as both are benefited by permanent high-quality employees compared to the random agency employees, lacking relationships with our customers and knowledge of the community systems and processes.

    我們與營運合作夥伴共同致力於改善客戶和員工體驗,使所有利害關係人受益。例如,我們注重大幅減少代理勞動力,從而改善了客戶和員工的體驗,因為與缺乏與客戶的關係以及缺乏對社區系統和流程的了解的隨機代理員工相比,長期高素質員工使雙方都受益。

  • Additionally, eliminating the agency or middleman enables us to ensure the hard-working people at our communities receive a fair compensation package with vacation and benefits as well as competitive pay and our shareholders benefit from the reduced leakage to the agency company owners.

    此外,消除代理商或中間人使我們能夠確保社區中辛勤工作的人們獲得公平的薪酬方案,包括假期和福利以及有競爭力的薪酬,我們的股東也能從減少代理公司所有者的流失中受益。

  • Care is the essence of the service provided and ensuring employees can deliver outstanding care is one of our top priorities. Our operating platform efficiencies will increase the time available for care and reduce the stress on our employees. For example, at one site, one of my team members worked at, the Executive Director spends over 3 hours per move-in inputting the documents into the antiquated systems. The CRM, (inaudible) care modules are disparate systems. Our platform has all the documents in e-form and the modules are fully integrated, reducing the potential for errors and saving time, which enables the site leader to focus on the customers and employees, not paperwork.

    護理是所提供服務的本質,確保員工能夠提供出色的護理是我們的首要任務之一。我們的營運平台效率將增加可用於護理的時間並減輕員工的壓力。例如,在我的團隊成員工作的一個地點,執行董事每次搬入都要花費 3 個多小時將文件輸入過時的系統。 CRM(聽不清楚)護理模組是不同的系統。我們的平台以電子形式提供所有文檔,並且模組完全集成,減少了錯誤的可能性並節省了時間,這使站點負責人能夠專注於客戶和員工,而不是文書工作。

  • We continue to make substantial progress on our platform and the related rollout. I'm grateful for the engagement and participation by the leadership of our operators who are actively working with us to ensure the success of the platform. More to come in 2024.

    我們繼續在我們的平台和相關推廣方面取得實質進展。我感謝營運商領導層的參與和參與,他們積極與我們合作,以確保平台的成功。 2024 年還會有更多內容。

  • I will now turn the call over to Tim.

    我現在將把電話轉給蒂姆。

  • Timothy G. McHugh - Executive VP & CFO

    Timothy G. McHugh - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, John. My comments today will focus on our third quarter 2023 results. Performance of our Triple-Net investment segment in the quarter, our capital activity, our balance sheet and liquidity update, and finally, our updated full year 2023 outlook.

    謝謝你,約翰。我今天的評論將重點放在我們 2023 年第三季的業績。本季我們的三網投資部門的表現、我們的資本活動、我們的資產負債表和流動性更新,以及我們更新的 2023 年全年展望。

  • Welltower reported third quarter net income attributable to common stockholders of $0.24 per diluted share and normalized funds from operations of $0.92 per diluted share, representing 10.4% year-over-year growth or 16.5% growth after adjusting for HHS and the year-over-year impact from changes in FX rates and higher base rates and floating rate debt.

    Welltower 公佈第三季歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤為每股攤薄後每股 0.24 美元,正常營運資金為每股攤薄後每股 0.92 美元,年增 10.4%,經 HHS 和同比調整後增長 16.5%匯率變動以及較高的基本利率和浮動利率債務的影響。

  • We also reported total portfolio same-store NOI growth of 14.1% year-over-year.

    我們也報告總投資組合同店 NOI 年成長 14.1%。

  • Now turning to the performance of our Triple-Net properties in the quarter. As a reminder, our Triple-Net lease portfolio coverage and occupancy stats are reported (inaudible). So these statistics reflect the trailing 12 months ending 6/30/2023.

    現在轉向我們本季三網資產的表現。提醒一下,我們報告了我們的 Triple-Net 租賃組合覆蓋範圍和入住率統計數據(聽不清楚)。因此,這些統計數據反映了截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日的過去 12 個月。

  • In our senior housing Triple-Net portfolio, same-store NOI increased 3.9% year-over-year and trailing 12-month EBITDA coverage of 0.93x. In the quarter, we agreed to convert 11 StoryPoint assets from Triple-Net lease to RIDEA, which will bring their regionally focused managed portfolio up to 55 Midwestern properties in the fourth quarter.

    在我們的高級住房 Triple-Net 投資組合中,同店 NOI 年比成長 3.9%,過去 12 個月 EBITDA 覆蓋率為 0.93 倍。在本季度,我們同意將 Triple-Net 租賃的 11 個 StoryPoint 資產轉換給 RIDEA,這將使他們在第四季度專注於區域的管理投資組合達到 55 個中西部物業。

  • Next, same-store NOI in our long-term post-acute portfolio grew 5.3% year-over-year and trailing 12-month EBITDA coverage was 1.44x.

    接下來,我們長期急性後投資組合中的同店 NOI 年比成長 5.3%,過去 12 個月 EBITDA 覆蓋率為 1.44 倍。

  • Turning to capital activity. We closed on $1.4 billion of acquisitions and loans in the quarter, led by $618 million of senior housing operating investments. As a reminder, the (inaudible) joint venture unwind that was announced last quarter will close by geography in 3 distinct phases. The U.K. portion closed in 2Q and the U.S. portion closed this quarter, resulting in $75 million of net investment.

    轉向資本活動。本季我們完成了 14 億美元的收購和貸款,其中以 6.18 億美元的高級房屋營運投資為首。提醒一下,上季宣布的(聽不清楚)合資企業解散將按地理位置分三個不同階段結束。英國部分於第二季結束,美國部分於本季結束,淨投資額為 7,500 萬美元。

  • And the Canadian portion is expected to close by year-end. In the quarter, we continue to issue through our ATM to fund ongoing investment spend and position the balance sheet for future opportunities. We raised gross proceeds of $1.9 billion at an average price of approximately $81 per share, allowing us to fully fund year-to-date investment activity and also extinguish $290 million of debt in the quarter.

    加拿大部分預計在年底前關閉。本季度,我們繼續透過 ATM 發行資金,為持續的投資支出提供資金,並為未來的機會調整資產負債表。我們以每股約 81 美元的平均價格籌集了 19 億美元的總收益,使我們能夠為年初至今的投資活動提供充分資金,並在本季度消除 2.9 億美元的債務。

  • This capital activity, along with continued growth across our business segments, including the continued post-COVID recovery within our senior housing operating business, helped drive net debt to adjusted EBITDA to 5.14x at quarter end, which represents 1.8 turns of deleveraging versus 1 year ago.

    這種資本活動,加上我們各業務部門的持續成長,包括我們高級住房營運業務在疫情後的持續復甦,幫助推動淨債務在季度末調整後EBITDA 達到5.14 倍,這意味著與1 年相比,去槓桿化達到了1.8 倍前。

  • We expect net debt to adjusted EBITDA to settle in the mid-5s on a pro forma basis post near-term investment activity and to continue to trend downward in future quarters as a recovery in our senior housing operating portfolio continues to drive organic cash flow higher.

    我們預計,在近期投資活動之後,經調整後的EBITDA 淨債務將在預計的5 美元左右結算,並在未來幾個季度繼續呈下降趨勢,因為我們的高級住房運營投資組合的複蘇繼續推動有機現金流量上升。

  • Additionally, filing this intra and post-quarter capital activity, including $900 million of gross investments closed to date in October, we have a current cash and cash equivalents balance of $2 billion, along with full capacity on our $4 billion revolving line of credit and $624 million in remaining expected proceeds from near-term dispositions and loan paydowns, representing approximately $6.6 billion in near-term available liquidity.

    此外,在提交季度內和季度後資本活動時,包括10 月份迄今結束的9 億美元總投資,我們目前的現金和現金等價物餘額為20 億美元,以及我們40 億美元循環信貸額度的全部能力和近期處置和償還貸款的剩餘預期收益為 6.24 億美元,相當於近期可用流動性約 66 億美元。

  • Lastly, moving to our full year guidance. Last night, we updated our previously issued full year 2023 outlook for net income attributable to common stockholders to a range of $0.91 to $0.95 per diluted share and normalized FFO of $3.59 to $3.63 per diluted share or $3.61 per share at the midpoint.

    最後,轉向我們的全年指引。昨晚,我們將先前發布的2023 年全年歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤展望更新為稀釋後每股0.91 至0.95 美元,標準化FFO 為稀釋後每股3.59 至3.63 美元,中間值為每股3.61美元。

  • Our normalized -- updated normalized FFO per share guidance represents a $0.055 increase at the midpoint of our previously updated guidance. This increase in guidance is reflective of a $0.03 increase from higher expected full year senior housing operating NOI, a $0.035 increase from capital allocation activity, which assumes no further investment in the year beyond what is closed to date; and these increases are partially offset by a combined penny drag, increase in expected full year G&A and stronger dollar.

    我們的標準化 - 更新後的標準化 FFO 每股指引意味著比我們先前更新的指引的中點增加了 0.055 美元。指導價值的增加反映了預期全年高級住房運營 NOI 增加了 0.03 美元,資本配置活動增加了 0.035 美元,假設今年沒有進一步的投資超出迄今為止的投資;這些成長部分被便士拖累、預期全年一般行政費用增加和美元走強所抵銷。

  • Underlying this FFO guidance is an increased estimate of total portfolio year-over-year same-store NOI growth of 11.5% to 13.5%, driven by subsegment growth of outpatient medical, 2.5% to 3%; long-term post-acute, 4% to 5%; senior housing Triple-Net, 1.5% to 2.5%; and finally, increased senior housing operating growth of 23% to 26%.

    這項 FFO 指引的基礎是,在門診醫療細分市場成長 2.5% 至 3% 的推動下,總投資組合同店 NOI 較去年同期成長 11.5% 至 13.5%;長期急性後,4%~5%;老年住房三網,1.5%至2.5%;最後,高級住房營運成長率從 23% 提高到 26%。

  • The midpoint of which is driven by continued better-than-expected expense trends along with revenue growth of approximately 9.8% year-over-year. Underlying this revenue growth is an expectation of approximately 240 basis points of year-over-year average occupancy increase and rent growth of approximately 6.7%.

    其中中點是由持續優於預期的支出趨勢以及約 9.8% 的營收年增率所推動的。這項收入成長的基礎是預計平均入住率年增約 240 個基點,租金成長約 6.7%。

  • And with that, I'll hand the call back over to Shankh.

    然後,我會將電話轉回給 Shankh。

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Tim. I want to conclude by turning your attention to 3 items that may not seem as important or exciting for our near-term results. On a combined basis, they may actually serve as a drag on our Q4. But nonetheless, it's extremely important to underscore as far as our stabilized or run rate earnings is concerned.

    謝謝你,提姆。最後,我想將您的注意力轉向 3 個項目,這些項目對於我們的近期結果似乎不那麼重要或令人興奮。綜合來看,它們實際上可能會拖累我們的第四季。但儘管如此,就我們的穩定收益或運行率收益而言,強調這一點極為重要。

  • First, we have convinced our partners, StoryPoint, to convert 11 properties from Triple-Net to RIDEA structure. Nine of these properties ran a historic lease structure with other operators, and 2 of them are recent acquisitions. StoryPoint is one of our best operators and a current RIDEA operator has cleaned up these billings, improved staffing, service quality and invested significant capital.

    首先,我們說服我們的合作夥伴 StoryPoint 將 11 個屬性從 Triple-Net 轉換為 RIDEA 結構。其中 9 處房產與其他業者保持著歷​​史性的租賃結構,其中 2 處是最近收購的。 StoryPoint 是我們最好的營運商之一,目前的 RIDEA 營運商已經清理了這些帳單、改善了人員配備、服務品質並投入了大量資金。

  • These properties have gained 500 basis points of occupancy since the beginning of the year to 70% in September. RevPOR is up 15% since they took over. RevPOR of the new move-in in 2023 is up another 12% from the average of 2023 numbers.

    自年初以來,這些物業的入住率已增加 500 個基點,至 9 月達到 70%。自他們接管以來,RevPOR 上漲了 15%。 2023 年新入住的 RevPOR 比 2023 年的平均數字再增加 12%。

  • This is setting up the stage for significant cash flow growth in '24 and beyond. Debt-to-equity conversion at the bottom of the cycle are perhaps the most value-accretive transaction we can complete today. As we have experienced in our recent Legend conversion, we can expect to breakeven in 12 to 15 months relative to our previous contractual rent, and then our shareholders will get all the upside afterwards. This obviously will work only if you have great assets run by great managers and we are right about the trajectory of the cash flow. And that is the bet I'm willing to take at this point in the recovery cycle.

    這為 24 年及以後的現金流顯著成長奠定了基礎。週期底部的債轉股也許是我們今天可以完成的最具增值價值的交易。正如我們最近在 Legend 轉換中所經歷的那樣,相對於之前的合約租金,我們預計將在 12 至 15 個月內實現盈虧平衡,然後我們的股東將獲得所有上漲空間。顯然,只有當您擁有由優秀經理管理的優質資產並且我們對現金流軌跡的判斷是正確的時,這才有效。這就是我在復甦週期的此時此刻願意承擔的賭注。

  • We continue to seek additional opportunities to achieve similar outcomes when they check the boxes of great assets and operator quality and when we can expand the pie with our partner, so that we can attain a win-win solution on an outcome for a long-term basis.

    當他們勾選優質資產和運營商品質的方框時,以及當我們可以與合作夥伴一起擴大蛋糕時,我們將繼續尋求更多機會來實現類似的結果,以便我們能夠實現長期雙贏的解決方案基礎。

  • Second, Kisco one of our strongest operating partner, measured by margin, occupancy and other operating metrics, recently marched with another one of our operators, Balfour. Balfour, now an affiliate of Kisco, maintains a dominant position in the Denver Metro area, also has (inaudible) buildings nearing completion in Brookline, in Boston MSA and Georgetown in D.C., both properties opening in 2024.

    其次,從利潤率、入住率和其他營運指標來看,Kisco 是我們最強大的營運合作夥伴之一,最近與我們的另一家營運商 Balfour 並駕齊驅。 Balfour 現在是Kisco 的附屬公司,在丹佛都會區保持著主導地位,還在布魯克萊恩、波士頓MSA 和華盛頓特區的喬治城擁有即將竣工的(聽不清楚)建築,這兩處房產均將於2024 年開業。

  • We thank Michael Schonbrun and Susan Juroe for their partnership at Balfour and wish them all the best for the next phase of their lives and welcome Andy Colberg and his team to take over the stewardship and growth of these communities.

    我們感謝 Michael Schonbrun 和 Susan Juroe 在 Balfour 的合作,並祝福他們在下一階段一切順利,並歡迎 Andy Colberg 和他的團隊接手這些社區的管理和發展。

  • Like StoryPoint communities above, this transaction will be significantly accretive to our stabilized earnings and cash flow growth. Last but not least, when the final stages of Project Transformer, the transaction, which I described to you last quarter, with our teams working really hard with Matthew and Frederic at Cogir.

    與上面的 StoryPoint 社群一樣,這項交易將極大地促進我們穩定的收益和現金流的成長。最後但並非最不重要的一點是,當 Transformer 專案進入最後階段時,我在上個季度向您描述了這項交易,我們的團隊與 Cogir 的 Matthew 和 Frederic 一起非常努力地工作。

  • Our brand launch is coming up in the next few weeks, and people are on both sides are working at a frenetic phase to achieve seamless transition. This is yet another transaction like the others above, which will look back at in '24 and '25 and feel really proud to have completed as they have added to our earnings and cash flow growth despite some near-term friction and the tremendous workload for the combined team.

    我們的品牌即將在未來幾週內推出,雙方人員都在加緊努力實現無縫過渡。這是與上述其他交易類似的另一筆交易,我們將在24 年和25 年回顧該交易,並為完成該交易感到非常自豪,因為儘管存在一些近期摩擦和巨大的工作量,但它們增加了我們的收入和現金流增長。聯合團隊。

  • Speaking of earnings and cash flow growth, I would like you to provide a report card on the previous large transactions to Avery and Oakmont from Signature and Sunrise that we discussed with you in Q2. Both Avery and Oakmont have grown occupancy of approximately 300 basis points since transitions have begun.

    說到收益和現金流成長,我希望您提供一份關於我們在第二季與您討論過的 Signature 和 Sunrise 之前向 Avery 和 Oakmont 進行的大型交易的報告卡。自過渡開始以來,艾弗里和奧克蒙特的入住率均增長了約 300 個基點。

  • We, at Welltower, remain focused on the long-term price of getting this business to an elevated level of customer and employee experience and generating earnings per share that is substantially higher than where we came from. To sum it up, the powerful recovery in senior housing operating business, the rollout of our operating platform and a significantly accretive capital deployment are all setting us up for an accelerating earnings and cash flow trajectory for '24 and '25.

    在 Welltower,我們仍然專注於使該業務達到更高水平的客戶和員工體驗並產生遠高於我們最初水平的每股收益的長期價格。總而言之,高級住房營運業務的強勁復甦、我們營運平台的推出以及顯著增值的資本配置都為我們在 24 年和 25 年加速獲利和現金流軌跡奠定了基礎。

  • With that, I'll open the call up for questions.

    這樣,我將開始提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Vikram Malhotra from Mizuho.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 Vikram Malhotra。

  • Vikram L. Malhotra - MD

    Vikram L. Malhotra - MD

  • I guess, the sort of great opportunity on the external growth front, we have -- yesterday, we saw 2 of your peers merge, and I was hoping you could sort of give us a sense of as that process was explored, have you been -- is that something that's been of interest to you or could be of interest to you? And can you compare and contrast that line sort of entity deal with your sort of more granular approach going forward?

    我想,在外部成長方面,我們有一個很好的機會——昨天,我們看到你們的兩個同行合併了,我希望你們能讓我們了解這個過程的探索過程,你們有沒有經歷過? — —這是您曾經感興趣或可能感興趣的事情嗎?您能否將這種線型實體處理與您未來的更細粒度方法進行比較和對比?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • So Vikram, I don't comment on other people's deals. It seems like it's a great outcome for both of them. We were not engaged, and we will not be engaged in that process, just to be specific. As we said many times, what works for us is one asset at a time transactions even if we do -- when we do portfolios, Nikhil is finishing up a portfolio transaction right now of 10 assets that we have gotten.

    所以維克拉姆,我不會評論其他人的交易。看來這對兩人來說都是一個很好的結果。具體來說,我們沒有參與,也不會參與這個過程。正如我們多次所說的,對我們有效的是一次交易一項資產,即使我們這樣做 - 當我們進行投資組合時,Nikhil 現在正在完成我們已獲得的 10 項資產的投資組合交易。

  • We have picked from a collection of 80-, 90-plus assets. So it's sort of -- we're very, very focused on going deep than going broad in our markets. And we genuinely believe in small transactions with one asset at a time, I believe there are median size of assets, transactions that we have done in the last 3 years, which constitute this $12 million-or-so of assets we've bought is like $30 million. That's what we like, that works for us, and that's what will continue.

    我們從 80 多個、90 多個資產中挑選了一些。所以,我們非常非常專注於深入市場而不是廣泛市場。我們真誠地相信一次只進行一項資產的小額交易,我相信我們在過去 3 年中進行的資產交易規模中位數,構成了我們購買的價值 1200 萬美元左右的資產大約3000萬美元。這就是我們喜歡的,對我們有用的,並將繼續下去。

  • We have no (inaudible) opportunities. I mean what we see today, the market is, I will not be surprised, you guys will recall that we had talked about a few years ago, there will be potentially $30 billion of opportunities. As we sit here today, we can say the TAM is actually bigger than that, given how much loans that's coming due, how much of floating rate debts are rolling over.

    我們沒有(聽不清楚)機會。我的意思是我們今天看到的市場,我不會感到驚訝,你們會記得我們幾年前談過,將會有潛在的 300 億美元的機會。當我們今天坐在這裡時,我們可以說,考慮到即將到期的貸款數量和滾動的浮動利率債務數量,TAM 實際上比這個數字更大。

  • So we have no problem growing the company as long as we have access to capital and we can do it on a part share basis. But large M&A is something that I've never liked. I'm not saying I'll never do it. But frankly speaking, it's just not much interest to us. And specifically answer to your question, we're not engaged and will not engage in the process that you mentioned.

    因此,只要我們能夠獲得資本並且可以在部分股份的基礎上發展公司,我們就沒有問題。但大型併購是我從來不喜歡的事。我並不是說我永遠不會這樣做。但坦白說,我們對此並沒有太大興趣。具體回答你的問題,我們沒有參與也不會參與你提到的過程。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Connor Siversky with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的康納·西弗斯基(Connor Siversky)。

  • Connor Serge Siversky - Equity Analyst

    Connor Serge Siversky - Equity Analyst

  • I've got a 3-part one for you guys here. But on the Cogir transaction, can you offer a sense as to what occupancy levels look like in the properties earmarked to be managed by the operator in the future? And then is there a way to quantify the NOI upside potential from this transaction and ultimately, the transition of those properties? And finally, is that Regency case study outlined in the deck a good example to gauge what that NOI potential could look like for the broader Cogir portfolio?

    我這裡為你們準備了一份分成三個部分的內容。但在 Cogir 交易中,您能否介紹一下未來由營運商管理的物業的入住率情況如何?那麼有沒有一種方法可以量化本次交易以及最終這些財產的轉變所帶來的 NOI 上行潛力?最後,簡報中概述的 Regency 案例研究是否是衡量更廣泛的 Cogir 產品組合的 NOI 潛力的好例子?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Connor, you were talking about, if I understand your question correctly, the Cogir transaction if you're talking about the properties that Cogir is taking over from Revera, the property occupancy is roughly around 80%. And we think that, as you know, Cogir obviously runs their properties well not of 90% occupancy and 40% margin, and I think we'll get there. What was the other part of the question, sorry, I missed that?

    康納,你說的是,如果我正確理解你的問題,Cogir 交易,如果你說的是 Cogir 從 Revera 接管的房產,房產入住率大約在 80% 左右。我們認為,如您所知,Cogir 顯然經營其物業的情況良好,入住率和利潤率並未達到 90% 和 40%,我認為我們會實現這一目標。問題的另一部分是什麼,抱歉,我錯過了?

  • Connor Serge Siversky - Equity Analyst

    Connor Serge Siversky - Equity Analyst

  • So you outlined that Regency case study in the deck for those -- I think in British Columbia, near Alberta. Is that a good example to use as a gauge for the NOI potential of the broader Cogir portfolio?

    所以你在甲板上概述了攝政案例研究——我想是在不列顛哥倫比亞省,靠近艾伯塔省。這是一個衡量更廣泛的 Cogir 投資組合的 NOI 潛力的好例子嗎?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think you will see in this particular portfolio that we're talking about, the transition portfolio, Regency portfolio -- Regency was a very well-run portfolio. This Cogir still has been able to get that margins, I believe, from around, call it, say, 40% to about 50%. In this particular case, I believe that the improvement will be better, and will go from -- margins will go from, call it, say, up 20% to 40%. So I think we should see better enhancement in this particular case than the Regency example.

    是的。我想你會在我們正在討論的這個特定的投資組合中看到,過渡投資組合,攝政投資組合——攝政投資組合是一個運作得非常好的投資組合。我相信,這個 Cogir 仍然能夠獲得大約 40% 到 50% 左右的利潤。在這種特殊情況下,我相信改進會更好,利潤率將從,比如說,成長 20% 到 40%。因此,我認為在這種特殊情況下,我們應該會看到比攝政範例更好的增強。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的胡安·薩納布里亞 (Juan Sanabria)。

  • Juan Carlos Sanabria - MD & Senior U.S. Real Estate Analyst

    Juan Carlos Sanabria - MD & Senior U.S. Real Estate Analyst

  • Impressive occupancy acceleration into September. Just curious what the early indications are for revenue increases to existing customers. I'm assuming some of the rate letters, have gone out already. So just curious how that year-over-year delta is looking for rent increases to existing customers?

    進入 9 月,入住率成長令人印象深刻。只是好奇現有客戶收入增加的早期跡像是什麼。我假設一些費率信已經發出了。那麼只是好奇同比增量如何尋求現有客戶的租金上漲?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • So Juan, as you know, we're sort of finalizing that as we speak, right? That's the discussion we are in. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks that we expect that to be very strong like last couple of years and that's where we are. We're not there yet from a purely finalization standpoint. But I continue to believe that we'll achieve -- a customer is expecting an elevated level of service, costs are not coming down any place, the business overall for the industry, not just for us, remain at a suboptimal level of margins where you can attract capital to the business. So all these things putting together, I think you will see strong rate growth. What exactly that is, is too early to say, but I continue to expect that will be very strong.

    胡安,正如你所知,我們正在敲定這一點,對嗎?這就是我們正在進行的討論。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣,我們預計這種情況會像過去幾年一樣非常強勁,而這就是我們現在的情況。從純粹最終確定的角度來看,我們還沒有達到這個目標。但我仍然相信我們會實現——客戶期望更高水平的服務,成本不會下降任何地方,整個行業的業務,而不僅僅是我們,仍處於次優的利潤水平,其中您可以為企業吸引資金。因此,將所有這些因素放在一起,我認為您會看到強勁的成長率。具體是什麼,現在說還為時過早,但我仍然預計這將非常強勁。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Hughes with Raymond James.

    我們的下一個問題來自喬納森·休斯和雷蒙·詹姆斯的對話。

  • Jonathan Hughes - Director & Senior Research Associate

    Jonathan Hughes - Director & Senior Research Associate

  • Shankh, could you just clarify the ending comments you gave in your prepared remarks where you said that the Kisco, Balfour merger might be a drag on the fourth quarter? I didn't quite understand why that might be the case? And then maybe one more, if I could sneak it in, the SHO portfolio outperformed that typical seasonality in the third quarter. I think that's expected to continue into year-end. Is that driven more so by the U.K.-related changing same-store pool, something else? Just any additional color there would be great.

    Shankh,您能否澄清一下您在準備好的發言中給出的結尾評論,其中您說 Kisco 和 Balfour 的合併可能會拖累第四季度?我不太明白為什麼會這樣?也許還有一點,如果我可以偷偷地講一下,SHO 投資組合在第三季的表現優於典型的季節性。我認為這種情況預計將持續到年底。這是否更多是受到英國相關同店池變化的推動,還是其他原因?只要有任何額外的顏色就會很棒。

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Let me try the first one. So I did not say that specific transaction might be a drag on the fourth quarter. I said the 3 things that I described together could be a drag on the fourth quarter. But combined, all of them should be a significant driver of growth on -- for '25 or just call it, stabilized earnings. That's the point I was trying to drive, not specifically about Kisco and Balfour.

    讓我試試第一個。所以我並沒有說具體交易可能拖累第四季。我說過我所描述的三件事可能會拖累第四季。但綜合起來,所有這些都應該成為 25 年穩定獲利成長的重要推動力。這就是我想要表達的觀點,而不是專門針對基斯科和貝爾福。

  • Timothy G. McHugh - Executive VP & CFO

    Timothy G. McHugh - Executive VP & CFO

  • And on your question on the seasonality in the business, you're correct. We continue to outperform the historical seasonality, and we are not seeing major differences between our transition portfolio, as Shankh mentioned, we actually see very strong occupancy gains in the transition portfolio, probably greater than what we've seen in the core portfolio.

    關於您關於業務季節性的問題,您是正確的。我們的表現繼續優於歷史季節性,而且我們沒有看到過渡投資組合之間存在重大差異,正如尚赫提到的那樣,我們實際上看到過渡投資組合的入住率增長非常強勁,可能比我們在核心投資組合中看到的還要大。

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Jonathan, just the core portfolio, as you know, sequential occupancy growth was around 150 basis points and the transition portfolio, the 2 I talked about was the majority of the transition we did in Q2. The occupancy growth in from signature to Avery and Sunrise to Oakmont, both portfolios achieved a sequential occupancy growth of roughly 300 basis points. So almost double of what the same store did.

    喬納森,如您所知,核心投資組合的入住率連續成長約為 150 個基點,而過渡投資組合(我談到的 2)是我們在第二季度所做的大部分過渡。從 Signature 到 Avery 以及 Sunrise 到 Oakmont 的入住率成長,兩個投資組合的入住率連續成長了約 300 個基點。所以幾乎是同一家商店的兩倍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (inaudible) with Scotiabank.

    (聽不清楚)與豐業銀行。

  • Nicholas Philip Yulico - Analyst

    Nicholas Philip Yulico - Analyst

  • Yes, I was hoping to get maybe a little bit of a preview about how G&A could trend over the next year. And I know this year, there was the build-out of John's group and just trying to understand like how far along that is, and how that could affect G&A growth over the next year?

    是的,我希望能夠對明年的 G&A 趨勢有所了解。我知道今年約翰的團隊進行了擴建,我只是想了解一下進展如何,以及這將如何影響明年的一般行政費用成長?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Nick, as I mentioned early in the year, I think if you go back to fourth quarter call, we have at least another year of elevated G&A increase as a build-out of the platform. So you should -- we have come long, but we have a long ways to go.

    尼克,正如我在今年早些時候提到的,我認為如果你回到第四季度的電話會議,我們至少還有一年的總費用和行政費用增加,作為平台的擴建。所以你應該——我們已經走了很長一段路,但我們還有很長的路要走。

  • So G&A versus NOI, just a geography of where you see, expenses versus revenues. So we do believe that the platform build-out is paying off, has started to pay off in spades. But from a purely -- just looking purely at G&A item, we would expect that another year of build-out, at least another year of build-out.

    因此,G&A 與 NOI,只是您所看到的支出與收入的地理分佈。因此,我們確實相信平台建設正在獲得回報,並且已經開始帶來豐厚的回報。但純粹從純粹的一般管理費用項目來看,我們預計還會有一年的擴建,至少還有一年的擴建。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Michael Griffin with Citi.

    我們的下一個問題來自邁克爾·格里芬與花旗的對話。

  • Nicholas Gregory Joseph - Director & Senior Analyst

    Nicholas Gregory Joseph - Director & Senior Analyst

  • It's actually Nick Joseph here with Michael. Shankh, I recognize you said you're not engaged, you won't be engaged. But last year, you reportedly got involved in a similar public-to-public M&A situation within the medical office space. You talked in the past a lot about being an IRR buyer and cost base focused and that you look at everything. So just curious in this situation or more broadly, is it kind of the current valuation and underwritten returns aren't sufficient against the other opportunities that you're seeing? Is it something about medical office that's keeping you on the sidelines here?

    實際上是尼克約瑟夫和邁克爾在一起。 Shankh,我知道你說過你沒有訂婚,你也不會訂婚。但去年,據報道,你們在醫療辦公領域參與了類似的公對公併購情況。您過去多次談到作為 IRR 買家和關注成本基礎,並且您會考慮一切。因此,在這種情況或更廣泛的情況下,我想知道當前的估值和核保回報是否不足以對抗您所看到的其他機會?是因為醫療辦公室的原因讓您袖手旁觀嗎?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • So first thing I mentioned that I don't comment on other people's deals. So I have nothing underwritten, so I can't even comment on what the underwritten returns looks like. But specifically to medical office, I think I provided some color last quarter that we're unsure at this point where the long-term inflation land. And because we're unsure -- we are unsure of at this point to make a huge bet on an asset class that we don't know what the growth profile versus the long-term inflation looks like, right?

    所以我首先提到的是,我不會對其他人的交易發表評論。所以我沒有承保任何東西,所以我甚至無法評論承保回報的樣子。但特別是對於醫療辦公室,我想我在上個季度提供了一些信息,表明我們目前不確定長期通膨將在何處發生。因為我們不確定——我們目前不確定是否要對某個我們不知道其成長狀況與長期通膨情況相比的資產類別進行巨額押注,對嗎?

  • So that's a very important point. We are finding opportunities where we think we can -- small opportunities where we can do value-add. We're buying assets at 70%, 80% occupancy and leasing up and so that we can see the growth rate higher. But from a stabilized 95%, call it, occupied medical office with a 2.5% increase or whatever it is, the traditional medical office, which provides a good long-term, stable growth for institutional investors is not interesting for us.

    所以這是非常重要的一點。我們正在尋找我們認為可以的機會——我們可以實現增值的小機會。我們以 70%、80% 的入住率購買資產並進行租賃,這樣我們就可以看到更高的成長率。但從穩定的 95%(稱之為 2.5% 成長或其他什麼)的佔用醫療辦公室來看,為機構投資者提供良好的長期穩定成長的傳統醫療辦公室對我們來說並不感興趣。

  • For that one reason. And the second reason is, it's always -- it's relative opportunities is the question, right? If that's the only thing that was available to us, will be a different conversation. We're easily picking off at low double-digit plus unlevered IRR opportunities in the senior living side assuming that we don't add much value, and I'm pretty positive we will add value. So it's just a question of relative opportunities of where we see [it will evolve] today. And that's why we have no interest. By no means that suggests that we don't think it's a good deal or not a good deal, I have no idea what the deal is because I'm not engaged in it and as I specifically mentioned will not because of the reasons I just pointed out to you.

    就因為這個原因。第二個原因是,問題始終是相對機會,對吧?如果這是我們唯一可以做的事情,那將會是一場不同的對話。假設我們不會增加太多價值,我們很容易在老年生活方面抓住兩位數低且無槓桿IRR的機會,而且我非常肯定我們會增加價值。因此,這只是我們今天看到[它將發展]的相對機會的問題。這就是為什麼我們沒有興趣。這絕不意味著我們認為這不是一筆好交易或不是一筆好交易,我不知道這筆交易是什麼,因為我沒有參與其中,正如我特別提到的,不會因為我只是參與其中的原因向你指出。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Josh Dennerlein with Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Dennerlein。

  • Joshua Dennerlein - VP

    Joshua Dennerlein - VP

  • I have a question on the transitions. Shankh, you mentioned you've been very active in terms of proactive portfolio management. You achieved a lot of early success recently with Avery and Oakmont. How have these operators driven such strong results so quickly? And just how would you encourage us to think about future transitions in the portfolio?

    我有一個關於過渡的問題。 Shankh,您提到您在主動投資組合管理方面一直非常積極。您最近與 Avery 和 Oakmont 一起取得了許多早期成功。這些業者如何如此迅速地取得如此強勁的業績?您將如何鼓勵我們考慮投資組合的未來轉變?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Yes, I'm not going to answer the first question, Josh. Obviously, on a public call, I mean, things called trade secrets that you don't want us to divulge on a public company call.

    是的,我不會回答第一個問題,喬許。顯然,在公開電話會議上,我的意思是,您不希望我們在公開公司電話會議上洩露的所謂商業機密。

  • But we'll say that this doesn't happen like automatically. As I've said before, we have learned. We have done a lot of transitions over the last, call it, 5, 7 years that I've been doing this, and we have learned our lessons from frankly, old school way of losing money.

    但我們會說這不會自動發生。正如我之前所說,我們已經學到了。過去,我們已經做了很多轉變,稱之為,我一直在做這件事的五七年,坦白說,我們從老式的虧損方式中吸取了教訓。

  • We have learned what we have done wrong. We have gotten better then sort of -- we learned how to stop bleeding and then finally, we have gotten the other side of how do we -- how we can make an impact. What the prep work you need to do on systems and process and frankly, that's what John taught us, right?

    我們已經知道自己做錯了什麼。我們已經變得更好了——我們學會瞭如何止血,最後,我們得到了我們如何做的另一面——我們如何能夠產生影響。您需要在系統和流程上做哪些準備工作,坦白說,這就是約翰教我們的,對吧?

  • So it's just -- it's an evolution. It's a process that we have gotten over the last few years, and I'm very, very happy that we are there. Now from the point of view of transitions, is it the last transition? Would we do 1,000 more transitions? It just depends on the performance. We're trying to optimize our performance.

    所以這只是——這是一種演變。這是我們在過去幾年中取得的一個過程,我非常非常高興我們能夠做到這一點。現在從轉變的角度來看,這是最後一次轉變嗎?我們會再進行 1,000 次轉換嗎?這僅取決於性能。我們正在努力優化我們的表現。

  • I've said it many, many times that this is a business in our opinion, in our humble opinion. It's a business of optimizing location, product, price point and operator, right? So we'll keep optimizing it until we think that we were done. And that's kind of where we are.

    我已經說過很多很多次了,在我們看來,以我們的拙見,這是一門生意。這是一個優化位置、產品、價位和運營商的業務,對吧?因此,我們將繼續優化它,直到我們認為我們已經完成為止。這就是我們現在的處境。

  • It's a journey I've written about that I'm willing to do even if we take short-term hits. And it appears, at least from near-term results, no guarantee of the future that we have achieved how to even mitigate that short-term hit.

    這是我所寫的一段旅程,即使我們遭受短期打擊,我也願意這樣做。至少從近期結果來看,似乎並不能保證未來我們已經達成如何減輕短期衝擊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Rich Anderson with Wedbush.

    我們的下一個問題來自里奇·安德森和韋德·布希的關係。

  • Richard Anderson

    Richard Anderson

  • So I want to talk and perhaps to John on the rate number that you mentioned, the RevPOR number of 7% and specifically, the sustainability of that type of growth. It's always been my view that there was some sort of implied ceiling of growing rents for people that are 85 years old. And that at some point along the way that there's just a way of doing business. Now I don't know that there's a real ceiling of some sort, but it always seemed to me that was the case, correct me if I'm wrong?

    因此,我想與 John 討論您提到的利率數字、7% 的 RevPOR 數字,特別是此類成長的可持續性。我一直認為,對於 85 歲的老人來說,租金成長存在某種隱含的上限。在這個過程中的某個時刻,只有一種做生意的方式。現在我不知道是否存在某種真正的上限,但在我看來,情況總是如此,如果我錯了,請糾正我?

  • Number two, though, maybe it involves unpacking the rent, maybe it's rent between rent and care and so that kind of muddies the conversation. But I wonder if you could comment at any level about how rate might grow in the future considering what I would think would be some pushback for the reasons I just described?

    不過,第二,也許它涉及租金,也許它是租金和護理之間的租金,所以這會讓談話變得混亂。但我想知道您是否可以在任何層面上評論未來利率的成長方式,考慮到我認為由於我剛才描述的原因會出現一些阻力?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Rich, let me try to start that. And John, you sort of finish anything that I haven't added. So I think your conversation that you have is a reasonable for -- if you think about a long-term tenant in the middle of the market, right?

    里奇,讓我試著開始。約翰,你完成了我沒有添加的任何內容。因此,我認為如果您考慮市場中間的長期租戶,您的談話是合理的,對吧?

  • So there is a -- you have to think about the customer you're talking about. We -- our rate increase is because we have sold majority of our mid-market product, our U.K. and U.S. portfolio is primarily focused on very high-end customer, very wealthy customer and the product remains incredibly affordable to them.

    所以,你必須考慮你所談論的客戶。我們的利率上漲是因為我們已經售出了大部分中端市場產品,我們在英國和美國的產品組合主要集中在非常高端的客戶、非常富有的客戶上,而且產品對他們來說仍然非常實惠。

  • And at that level, we haven't seen any pushback. The second point you have to consider Rich, is -- we have never raised rates like you have seen in other asset classes, multifamily stores, others, 20%, 25%. We have never raised that, right? So just sort of rates remains high single digits, whatever, like 8%, 9%, 10% is sort of what we have done.

    在這個層面上,我們沒有看到任何阻力。你必須考慮 Rich 的第二點是——我們從未像你在其他資產類別、多戶商店等中看到的那樣提高利率,20%、25%。我們從來沒有提出過這個問題,對吧?因此,只是某種程度的比率仍然很高,無論什麼,例如 8%、9%、10% 都是我們所做的。

  • So it's much more sustainable than you think. But put that aside, just understand, put all of those comments in the context of average length of stay, you're talking about an average length of stay of 20 months. So we might be here talking about the 3 year of increase of X percent.

    所以它比你想像的更永續。但拋開這一點,只要理解,將所有這些評論放在平均停留時間的背景下,您談論的是 20 個月的平均停留時間。所以我們可能在這裡談論的是 3 年成長 X%。

  • But just understand, the person who got the first year of increase, he or she is gone, right? She's no longer in the community. So if you put all of those together, you will see that if you provide the very important point, if you provide the differentiated services at the highest level, your customer is willing to pay you. Now we are, as I've said many, many times, we're not focused on an individual number, call a RevPOR or rate, right? We're focused on very much of a delta between RevPOR and ExpPOR, and that's what we are focused on. I've said that last year and the year before. And we shall see what the market gives us, right? I have no idea what the market will give us if there's a pushback, we will adjust, but we haven't seen any yet.

    但你要明白,獲得第一年增幅的人,他或她已經走了,對嗎?她已經不在社區了。因此,如果你把所有這些放在一起,你會發現,如果你提供了非常重要的一點,如果你提供最高水準的差異化服務,你的客戶願意付錢給你。現在,正如我多次說過的那樣,我們不再關注單一數字,即 RevPOR 或費率,對嗎?我們非常關注 RevPOR 和 ExpPOR 之間的差異,這就是我們所關注的。我去年和前年都說過這句話。我們將看看市場給我們什麼,對吧?我不知道如果出現阻力,市場會為我們帶來什麼,我們會進行調整,但我們還沒有看到任何阻力。

  • John F. Burkart - Executive VP & COO

    John F. Burkart - Executive VP & COO

  • Yes. No, I fully agree. It's the difference between RevPOR and expense POR and -- it's -- I think you're probably, Rich, thinking about multifamily where people are there for years and years and years, and it's a very different situation here.

    是的。不,我完全同意。這是 RevPOR 和費用 POR 之間的區別,Rich,我想你可能正在考慮多戶住宅,人們在那裡待了很多年,而且這裡的情況非常不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from James with Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 James。

  • James Hall Kammert - Research Analyst

    James Hall Kammert - Research Analyst

  • I certainly appreciate the operating leverage embedded in the SHOP portfolio. And I was just wondering if you could provide a little more color sort of regarding labor trends for the general staffing there, and what conviction you have and the ability to really continue to sustain pretty attractive or capitated growth of those expenses?

    我當然很欣賞 SHOP 投資組合中嵌入的營運槓桿。我只是想知道您是否可以提供更多關於那裡一般人員配置的勞動力趨勢的信息,以及您有什麼信念和能力真正繼續維持這些費用的相當有吸引力或人均增長?

  • I mean, are you getting longer tenures, so it's lower turnover and lower recruitment costs or just a better labor talent pool. And again, I'm just thinking more beyond the shaft and the General Manager, what levers are contributing to nice profile in terms of growth on the expenses for labor?

    我的意思是,你的任期是更長的,所以它是較低的人員流動和較低的招募成本,或者只是一個更好的勞動力人才庫。再說一次,我只是在思考除了軸和總經理之外的更多問題,哪些槓桿有助於在勞動力支出成長方面取得良好的形象?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Jim, you are correct that we are seeing turnover is coming down significantly. We are seeing that overall availability of employees who wants to be part of our business and part of the communities is increasing significantly. And we are seeing that our operating partners are getting better using technology and other resources to attract talent and keeping them in the business, right?

    吉姆,你說得對,我們看到營業額正在顯著下降。我們發現,想要成為我們業務和社區一部分的員工的整體可用性正在顯著增加。我們看到我們的營運合作夥伴正在更好地利用技術和其他資源來吸引人才並留住他們,對吧?

  • So that sort of -- it's -- whenever you get hit by a crisis, people figure out ways to do things better, every crisis makes the business better if it survives, right? And that's what we are seeing.

    所以,每當遇到危機時,人們都會想辦法把事情做得更好,每次危機如果能存活下來,都會讓企業變得更好,對嗎?這就是我們所看到的。

  • And what conviction do we have that RevPOR minus ExpPOR journey can continue very significantly. For a specific line item, on a specific thing, on a specific quarter, we have no idea. I said this a million times, our goal here is not to predict the future. Our goal is to see what market gives us and do better than market. We'll see what market gives us.

    我們有什麼信念相信 RevPOR 減去 ExpPOR 的旅程可以非常顯著地持續下去。對於特定的訂單項目、特定的事情、特定的季度,我們不知道。我已經說過一百萬遍了,我們的目標不是預測未來。我們的目標是看看市場給了我們什麼,並且做得比市場更好。我們將看看市場為我們帶來什麼。

  • John F. Burkart - Executive VP & COO

    John F. Burkart - Executive VP & COO

  • Yes. And I would just add, in my comments, my focus is on productivity. So we want our employees to be paid well. We want happy employees and happy customers. We also want to increase productivity of the business so that we can manage to accomplish all of that. So that's really, I think, the take-home point.

    是的。我想補充一點,在我的評論中,我的重點是生產力。所以我們希望我們的員工得到良好的報酬。我們想要快樂的員工和快樂的客戶。我們也希望提高企業的生產力,以便我們能夠實現所有這些目標。我認為這確實是最重要的一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Mike Mueller 與摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的對話。

  • Michael William Mueller - Senior Analyst

    Michael William Mueller - Senior Analyst

  • Yes. Curious, how are you thinking about, I guess, senior housing development today? And how do you see starts potentially trending over the next couple of years?

    是的。我想知道,您現在對老年住宅開發有何看法?您如何看待未來幾年的潛在趨勢?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Mike, I'm just going to be repetitive here. I was asked this question at the NIC Conference about a week ago or 10 days ago, whenever that was. I'll repeat what I said on the panel. I think if you're a debt provider in senior housing today, you have a better luck going to Vegas. And if you're an equity provider in senior housing development today, you have a better luck buying lottery.

    是的。麥克,我只是在這裡重複一下。大約一週前或十天前,無論什麼時候,我在 NIC 會議上被問到這個問題。我將重複我在面板上所說的話。我認為,如果您今天是高級住房的債務提供者,那麼您去維加斯的運氣會更好。如果您是當今老年住房開發的股權提供者,那麼您購買彩票的運氣會更好。

  • I hope that tells you what my view of senior housing development is. I don't even understand why there is any start, any like more than 0 because the economics doesn't make any sense given where construction cost is, where capital cost is and where the margin of the business is. It should not have any starts and it seems like it's going there.

    我希望這能告訴您我對老年住房開發的看法。我甚至不明白為什麼會有任何開始,任何大於 0 的開始,因為考慮到建築成本、資本成本和業務利潤,經濟學沒有任何意義。它不應該有任何開始,而且看起來它會去那裡。

  • I think any stock that you are seeing, people are still playing with other people's money, and that's coming down -- closing down pretty quickly. And I think you will continue to see it's moving down. Mike, did I miss any other part of your question?

    我認為你看到的任何股票,人們仍然在用別人的錢玩,而且它正在下跌 - 很快就會下跌。我認為你會看到它繼續下降。麥克,我是否錯過了你問題的其他部分?

  • Michael William Mueller - Senior Analyst

    Michael William Mueller - Senior Analyst

  • No, that was it.

    不,就是這樣。

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Michael Carroll with RBC.

    我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Michael Carroll。

  • Michael Albert Carroll - Analyst

    Michael Albert Carroll - Analyst

  • Given the dislocation that we're seeing in the private market, is it harder for operators that are having liquidity issues to provide the same level of care versus your operators that presumably don't have these issues? I mean, are you seeing that in the marketplace at all right now? And if not, do you expect that this will become a bigger storyline over the next several quarters?

    考慮到我們在私人市場中看到的混亂,與可能沒有這些問題的運營商相比,存在流動性問題的運營商是否更難提供相同程度的護理?我的意思是,您現在在市場上看到這種情況了嗎?如果沒有,您是否預計這將成為未來幾季更大的故事情節?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • I can't speak for other people, Mike. I will tell you that we have -- our operators -- operating partners are doing extremely well. And we're getting hit left, right and center with new operating partner who wants to be part of our story. So whether that's because they're inspired to do what John is doing, our data journey or we're trying to professionalize the business or the data transformation journey or they're having troubles on their own end or both, I have no idea.

    我不能代表其他人說話,麥克。我會告訴你,我們的電信商營運夥伴做得非常好。我們正受到新的營運合作夥伴的打擊,他們希望成為我們故事的一部分。因此,無論是因為他們受到啟發去做約翰正在做的事情,我們的數據之旅,還是我們試圖使業務或數據轉換之旅專業化,或者他們自己遇到了麻煩,或者兩者兼而有之,我不知道。

  • But I could tell you that we have literally -- I mean, it is -- we have seen really good investment opportunities, but we have never seen anything like what we are seeing today. Whether that's because of a pull or a push, I have no idea. And we're seeing operators from all parts of the country, in all 3 countries we do business with, is calling us to be part of it this well-capitalized -- extraordinarily well-capitalized platform, but also being part of John's platform.

    但我可以告訴你,我們確實——我的意思是——我們看到了非常好的投資機會,但我們從未見過像今天這樣的情況。我不知道這是因為拉力還是推力。我們看到來自全國各地、與我們開展業務的所有 3 個國家的運營商都在呼籲我們成為這個資本雄厚的平台的一部分,而且也是約翰平台的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Ron Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ron Kamdem。

  • Ronald Kamdem - Equity Analyst

    Ronald Kamdem - Equity Analyst

  • Great. Just a big picture one. So looking at the presentation, the NOI, the incremental NOI build, I noticed that you guys added a bar here that looks like another $172 million. And I'm tying back to your comments about the focus on RevPOR versus ExpPOR. It's clearly a margin benefit here. So I was wondering if you could talk about that, why add that to the deck where -- are we supposed to read into it just more confidence in the ability to get back to pre-COVID margins, is the question?

    偉大的。一張大圖而已。因此,看看演示文稿、NOI、增量 NOI 構建,我注意到你們在這裡添加了一個看起來像是另外 1.72 億美元的欄位。我將回顧您對 RevPOR 與 ExpPOR 的關注的評論。這顯然是利潤率的好處。所以我想知道你是否可以談談這個問題,為什麼要把它添加到甲板上——我們是否應該解讀它,只是對恢復到新冠疫情之前的利潤率更有信心,這是問題所在嗎?

  • Timothy G. McHugh - Executive VP & CFO

    Timothy G. McHugh - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, Ron. So we added that to deck through conversations with both investors and analysts alike. They're looking at it, interpreting kind of a stabilized point to be reflective of 88% occupancy and 31% margins.

    是的,羅恩。因此,我們添加了這一點,以裝飾與投資者和分析師等的對話。他們正在研究這個問題,將穩定點解釋為反映了 88% 的入住率和 31% 的利潤率。

  • When in fact, with the rent growth we've seen since fourth quarter '19, as we were ignoring that rent growth and -- or with it, we're baking in around 29% margin. So what we wanted to do is just show getting back to just the NOI level on today's rents, means that you're getting to margins that are 200 basis points plus below where we were margin-wise in fourth quarter '19, and what that final bar does is just shows you getting back to 88% occupancy, 31% margin in pre-COVID levels at today's third quarter '23 realized rents where NOI would be.

    事實上,隨著我們自 2019 年第四季以來看到的租金成長,由於我們忽略了租金成長,或與之相伴,我們的利潤率約為 29%。因此,我們想要做的就是顯示回到今天租金的 NOI 水平,這意味著您的利潤率將比我們 19 年第四季度的利潤率低 200 個基點以上,這意味著什麼最後一根柱子只是顯示,在今天的23 年第三季實現租金(NOI 的水平)下,入住率恢復到了88%,利潤率恢復到了新冠疫情前的水平。

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • And Ron, I've said this before, I'll repeat it again. If that's all we go back to Q4 of '19 level or pre-COVID level, I would be very, very disappointed. If you have done this in Q4 of '19, you remember, those were not the greatest days of this business, right? So we were getting hit for 4-plus years at this point and through our supply cycle. That is not a high point like a lot of other businesses are, and we're very disappointed that's all we get back to.

    羅恩,我之前已經說過了,我再說一次。如果這就是我們回到 19 年第四季或新冠疫情之前的水平,我會非常非常失望。如果您在 19 年第四季做到了這一點,您還記得,那不是這個行業最偉大的日子,對嗎?因此,我們在這一點上以及整個供應週期中遭受了四年多的打擊。這並不像許多其他企業那樣達到高峰,我們對此感到非常失望。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jamie Feldman with Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

  • James Colin Feldman - Equity Analyst

    James Colin Feldman - Equity Analyst

  • Great. I'm here with Connor. How should we think about funding assumptions for the next tranche of acquisitions? And then also, how does the quality of the assets you're looking at compared to the quality of your existing portfolio? Or put differently, how do you assure investors that you aren't moving up the risk curve to chase the return profile?

    偉大的。我和康納在一起。我們該如何考慮下一批收購的融資假設?另外,與您現有投資組合的品質相比,您正在關注的資產的品質如何?或者換句話說,你如何向投資人保證你不會為了追逐報酬率而提高風險曲線?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • I don't want to assure investors of anything. I think investors are aware of our track record, and you guys do a very good job of visiting our properties. So you can see it. The chasing the risk curve to get investments might happen when things are really, really tight. It is an exactly opposite environment, Jamie. And when those environments have occurred in the past, we were massive sellers of assets.

    我不想向投資者保證任何事情。我認為投資者了解我們的業績記錄,你們在參觀我們的房產方面做得非常好。所以你可以看到它。當事情真的非常緊張時,追逐風險曲線來獲得投資可能會發生。這是一個完全相反的環境,傑米。當這些環境過去發生時,我們是資產的大量賣家。

  • We don't chase risk curves to get return. That's just not what we do. Now going back to your actual -- the crust of your question, is, frankly speaking, the initial part of COVID, what we are noticing was sort of a lot of broken cash flows, right? Assets while 60%, 70% occupied; new development, brand-new assets, 3 years, 4 years, 2-year-old assets, but broken cash flow because that's normal for a business that had breakeven at 60% occupancy and your marginal sort of return, if you will, or your marginal or incremental margins sort of go hockey stick is normal for that period of time given how much occupancy we lost during COVID to have those kind of asset; great assets, broken cash flow because of what the occupancy is and how margins work in this business.

    我們不會為了獲得報酬而追逐風險曲線。那不是我們所做的。現在回到你的實際問題——坦白說,你的問題的核心是,新冠疫情的最初部分,我們注意到的是大量的現金流中斷,對吧?資產同時佔用60%、70%;新的開發案、全新的資產、3年、4年、2年的資產,但現金流中斷,因為這對於一家在60%入住率和邊際回報(如果你願意的話)達到盈虧平衡的企業來說是正常的,或者考慮到我們在新冠疫情期間為了擁有此類資產而損失了多少入住率,你的邊際或增量利潤在這段時間內是正常的;龐大的資產,但由於入住​​率和利潤率在該業務中的運作方式而導致現金流中斷。

  • That was 2 years ago -- 3 years ago, that's what sort of we were seeing. Today, we are seeing broken capital structure, assets are generating the cash flow that it should be generating at 80% occupancy, 82% occupancy where the industry is, call it, 6%, 6.5%, whatever it is, the cash flow yield -- that's not the problem.

    那是兩年前——三年前,這就是我們所看到的。今天,我們看到資本結構破碎,資產正在產生它應該在80%的佔用率、82%的佔用率(行業所處的位置)時產生的現金流,稱之為6%、6.5%,無論是什麼,現金流收益率——這不是問題。

  • The problem is the underlying leverage, which is now so far plus 350, 400 is at 9%. That's the problem and those loans are coming to you, you are upside down on a cash flow basis and your upside down on a leverage basis. And those are the ones that are transacting today. So frankly speaking, the number of trophy buildings, number of high-quality, high high-quality buildings, which core investors (inaudible) that we have seen in last, call it, 6 months, even last 4 months, I haven't seen the 4 years before that, right?

    問題是基礎槓桿,目前為止是 350、400,槓桿率為 9%。這就是問題所在,這些貸款將流向你,你的現金流量和槓桿率都處於顛倒狀態。這些就是今天正在交易的。坦白說,我們最近看到的核心投資者(聽不清楚)稱其為獎杯建築的數量,高品質、高品質建築的數量,6個月,甚至過去4個月,我還沒有4年前就看過了,對吧?

  • And so the quality of opportunities are going up pretty significantly, but it is up to you to decide what is the quality of assets we are buying. And we give assets, you can go and visit them, and I think you will come to the same conclusion. Did I miss any part of the question?

    因此,機會的品質正在顯著提高,但我們要購買的資產的品質取決於您。而且我們給了資產,你可以去參觀一下,我想你也會得出同樣的結論。我錯過了問題的任何部分嗎?

  • Timothy G. McHugh - Executive VP & CFO

    Timothy G. McHugh - Executive VP & CFO

  • Jamie, on your funding question. So in my prepared remarks, I spoke to kind of a liquidity build, and that's as of October 30. So we talked about $900 million in investments just quarter-to-date, closed in October, $1 billion pipeline ahead of us about $2 billion in cash and $6.6 billion of total available liquidity to fund that.

    傑米,關於你的資金問題。因此,在我準備好的發言中,我談到了流動性建設,這是截至10 月30 日的情況。因此,我們談到了本季至今的9 億美元投資,於10 月結束,還有10 億美元的管道領先我們約20 億美元現金和 66 億美元的可用流動資金總額來為其提供資金。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Austin Wurschmidt。

  • Austin Todd Wurschmidt - VP

    Austin Todd Wurschmidt - VP

  • Great. Shankh, you were crystal clear with your thoughts on why development doesn't make sense broadly in senior housing today, but you did expand the development pipeline, I think it was up $600 million this quarter, roughly half of that was in senior housing. And clearly, you have a cost of capital advantage today. But I mean, is that what gives you the comfort moving forward with these projects? And then I'm curious, are developers coming to you to partner on future projects that can't sort of access construction financing? And how does that opportunity set compare versus acquisitions?

    偉大的。 Shankh,對於為什麼開發在今天的高級住房中沒有廣泛意義,你的想法非常清楚,但你確實擴大了開發管道,我認為本季增加了 6 億美元,其中大約一半是高級住房。顯然,您今天擁有資本成本優勢。但我的意思是,這就是讓你安心推動這些專案的原因嗎?然後我很好奇,開發商是否會來找你們合作開發無法獲得建設融資的未來專案?該機會集與收購相比如何?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • I think, if I understand correctly, Nikhil correct me if I'm wrong, all our development starts are either fully 100% leased medical office developments that we have long-term tail or long-term contracts with our existing clients or their wellness housing development. I do not believe that we have started any senior housing development.

    我想,如果我理解正確的話,尼基爾糾正我,如果我錯了,我們所有的開發項目要么是完全100% 租賃的醫療辦公室開發項目,我們與現有客戶或他們的健康住房有長期尾部或長期合約發展。我不認為我們已經開始任何老年住房開發。

  • I don't remember when was the last time we actually started the senior housing development. So because of the all reporting in the same bucket, Austin, but they're not senior housing development, there are what in the -- what we call wellness housing, which is age restricted and age targeted apartment.

    我不記得我們最後一次真正開始老年住房開發是什麼時候了。因此,由於所有報告都在同一桶中,奧斯汀,但它們不是高級住房開發項目,所以有我們所說的健康住房,即年齡限制和針對年齡的公寓。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

    我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的胡安·薩納布里亞 (Juan Sanabria)。

  • Juan Carlos Sanabria - MD & Senior U.S. Real Estate Analyst

    Juan Carlos Sanabria - MD & Senior U.S. Real Estate Analyst

  • It's Juan here with (inaudible). Just a quick question on the investment pipeline. Could you give a breakdown of kind of what you're looking at? And where do you think you see or where are stabilized deals say for what you're targeting in the major food groups?

    胡安在這裡(聽不清楚)。只是一個關於投資管道的簡單問題。能否詳細說明您正在查看的內容?您認為您在哪裡看到或哪裡有穩定的交易表明您在主要食品類別中的目標是什麼?

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So the pipeline today is, as I said, I don't know, Nikhil, but it's like 80%-plus would be senior housing. And mostly, I would say, equity in senior living and probably maybe 90%. But vast majority of senior living and core equity opportunities in senior living just because of the size. It's just a lot of it is in U.S. And we just closed a large transaction in Canada.

    是的。因此,正如我所說,今天的管道是,尼基爾,我不知道,但 80% 以上將是高級住房。我想說,大多數情況下,老年生活的公平性可能達到 90%。但絕大多數老年生活和老年生活的核心股權機會只是因為規模。其中很多是在美國,我們剛剛在加拿大完成了一筆大交易。

  • So if I think about -- remember it correctly, it's almost -- not entirely, but majority is U.S. senior housing and there are some credit opportunities in the skilled side. I don't remember any transaction or pipeline about any MOBs, but do you know anything?

    因此,如果我考慮一下——沒記錯的話,幾乎——不完全是,但大多數是美國的高級住房,並且在技術方面有一些信貸機會。我不記得任何有關 MOB 的交易或管道,但你知道嗎?

  • John F. Burkart - Executive VP & COO

    John F. Burkart - Executive VP & COO

  • Nothing meaningful.

    沒什麼意義。

  • Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

    Shankh S. Mitra - CEO & Director

  • Okay. And stabilized yields, I would say, in the senior living today, we're targeting close to 8 on a stabilized basis and going in. I think I said last call, we're seeing sort of opportunities that starting at 6, ending at 8 and given the rise of rail rates, we're seeing better than that today. Frankly, we have ratcheted our return expectations higher. So that's sort of where we are transacting. But we're not a yield buyer. We're still happy to buy 1% yield, if we think that's the right basis and the right assets. But generally speaking, those are the kind of opportunities we're seeing.

    好的。我想說的是,在今天的老年生活中,收益率穩定,我們的目標是在穩定的基礎上接近8,然後進入。我想我在上次電話會議中說過,我們看到了從6 開始到 6 結束的機會。8 日,考慮到鐵路運價的上漲,我們看到的情況比今天要好。坦白說,我們提高了回報預期。這就是我們進行交易的地方。但我們不是收益買家。如果我們認為這是正確的基礎和正確的資產,我們仍然樂意購買 1% 的收益率。但總的來說,這些都是我們看到的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question comes from the line of Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho.

    我們的最後一個問題來自維克拉姆·馬爾霍特拉 (Vikram Malhotra) 和瑞穗 (Mizuho) 的關係。

  • Vikram L. Malhotra - MD

    Vikram L. Malhotra - MD

  • Nikhil or Shankh, can you just update us on the Integra process? How are those assets been performing? And by extension, is there -- are there additional opportunities? I just asked that because you had earlier outlined upon stabilization, you might look to sell some of that. So would just be helpful to get an update on Integra.

    Nikhil 或 Shankh,可以為我們介紹 Integra 流程的最新情況嗎?這些資產的表現如何?推而廣之,還有其他機會嗎?我只是問,因為您之前已經概述了穩定,您可能會考慮出售其中一些。因此,取得 Integra 的更新很有幫助。

  • Nikhil Chaudhri - Executive VP & CIO

    Nikhil Chaudhri - Executive VP & CIO

  • Yes, Vikram. So we're pleased with the performance that we're seeing. Last quarter, I talked about the first 133 out of the 147 buildings that have transitioned. In the last quarter, those buildings produced roughly $70 million of positive EBITDARM compared to negative $90 million for the 3 months prior to the transition.

    是的,維克拉姆。因此,我們對所看到的表現感到滿意。上個季度,我談到了 147 棟已轉型建築中的前 133 棟。在上一季度,這些建築產生了約 7,000 萬美元的正息稅前利潤,而過渡前 3 個月為負 9,000 萬美元。

  • Now fast forward another quarter, those same buildings in the second quarter generated $127 million of EBITDARM. So in the 6 months since transition, you're seeing a cash flow swing of $215-plus million and obviously, every month continues to be better than the prior month. And so if you look at June end and you annualize that, you were roughly $170 million, which is north of the rent, right? So here we are 6 months in when we had underwritten this, we thought it would take us much longer 18 months, give or take, to get to this point. So we are incredibly pleased with the performance. But we think there's still a long ways to go. So your point about exiting upon stabilization, we're happy with the progress, but we're far from stabilization.

    現在快進到另一個季度,這些相同的建築在第二季度產生了 1.27 億美元的 EBITDARM。因此,在過渡後的 6 個月內,您會看到現金流量波動超過 2.15 億美元,顯然每個月都比上個月好。因此,如果您查看 6 月底並將其按年計算,您的收入約為 1.7 億美元,這超出了租金,對吧?所以,我們承保這項計畫已經過去 6 個月了,我們認為,無論多少時間,我們都需要更長的 18 個月才能達到這一點。所以我們對這次的表現非常滿意。但我們認為還有很長的路要走。因此,關於穩定後退出的觀點,我們對進展感到滿意,但我們距離穩定還很遠。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes the Welltower Third Quarter Conference Call. Thank you for joining.

    Welltower 第三季電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。