Welltower Inc (WELL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Briana, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Welltower third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Please note that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Matt McQueen, General Counsel. Please go ahead, sir.

謝謝你的支持。我叫 Briana，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Welltower 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。請注意，此通話正在錄音。 （操作員指示）我現在將會議交給總法律顧問馬特·麥奎因。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good morning. As a reminder, certain statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements in the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Although Welltower believes any forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, the company can give no assurances that its projected results will be attained. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements are detailed in the company's filings with the SEC.

謝謝你，早安。謹此提醒，本次電話會議中所做的某些陳述可能被視為《私人證券訴訟改革法》意義上的前瞻性陳述。儘管 Welltower 認為任何前瞻性陳述均基於合理假設，但該公司不能保證其預期結果將會實現。該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中詳細介紹了可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異的因素。

And with that, I'll hand the call over to Shankh for his remarks.

接下來，我將把電話轉交給尚赫，聽他的演講。

Thank you, Matt, and good morning, everyone. I'll review third-quarter business trends and our capital allocation priorities. John will provide an update on operational performance for our senior housing and medical office portfolios, Nikhil will give you an update on the investment landscape, and Tim will walk you through our triple net businesses, balance sheet highlights and guidance updates.

謝謝你，馬特，大家早安。我將回顧第三季的業務趨勢和我們的資本配置優先事項。約翰將提供有關我們高級住房和醫療辦公室投資組合運營業績的最新信息，尼基爾將向您介紹投資前景的最新情況，蒂姆將引導您了解我們的三重淨業務、資產負債表要點和指導更新。

I'm once again pleased to report another very strong quarter across the board at Welltower from operations to capital deployment, a further strengthening of our balance sheet, continued progress on our auditing platform rollout. The result was a 21% increase in FFO per share and our forward guidance raise for the year, this time by $0.13 per share, reflecting the extraordinary strength of our platform.

我再次很高興地報告 Welltower 從營運到資本部署、進一步加強我們的資產負債表、我們的審計平台推出的持續進展等全面強勁的季度。結果是每股 FFO 成長了 21%，我們今年的前瞻性指引上調了每股 0.13 美元，反映了我們平台的非凡實力。

This quarter also marks the first time in our company's history in which our quarterly revenue exceeded $2 billion. In terms of the senior housing operating portfolio, results continue to surpass our already high expectations. Year-over-year same-store NOI growth came in at 23%, eighth consecutive quarter in which the growth exceeded 20%.

本季也標誌著我們公司歷史上首次季度營收超過 20 億美元。就高級住房營運組合而言，業績持續超出我們已經很高的預期。同店 NOI 較去年同期成長 23%，連續第八個季度成長超過 20%。

And despite macroeconomic uncertainty and heightened political -- geopolitical tensions, top line growth on a same-store basis remained resilient at 9%, driven by another quarter of outside occupancy growth of 310 basis points, coupled with strong rate growth. Particularly noteworthy is the 160 basis points of sequential spot-to-spot occupancy growth that we experienced.

儘管存在宏觀經濟不確定性和政治地緣政治緊張局勢加劇，但在外部入住率又一個季度增長 310 個基點以及強勁的利率增長的推動下，同店收入增長仍保持在 9% 的彈性水平。特別值得注意的是我們所經歷的逐點入住率較上季成長 160 個基點。

A reflection of both strong tailwinds of our business and especially our operating platform initiative, which will continue to bear fruit in the coming quarters and years. Not only we are placed with the sequential growth, but the occupancy run rate exiting the quarter solidly exceeded the prior year and early fourth quarter results have been positive as well. Additionally, I would be remiss not to mention that the spread between RevPAR or unit revenue and export or unit expense remains at historically wide level.

這反映了我們業務的強勁推動力，尤其是我們的營運平台計劃，該計劃將在未來幾季和幾年中繼續取得成果。我們不僅實現了環比成長，本季的入住率也明顯超過了去年同期，第四季初的業績也很樂觀。此外，如果不提及 RevPAR（單位收入）與出口或單位支出之間的差距仍處於歷史最高水平，那就太失職了。

This trend resulted in another 300 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion of our SHO portfolio, as we have discussed in the past, we remain focused on the delta between Report and export, not the absolute levels. Overall, we are delighted with our results and believe that we are carrying significant momentum into 2025 as tailwinds, which we have lifted our business over the past couple of years, continue to strengthen.

這一趨勢導致我們的 SHO 投資組合的利潤率同比又增長了 300 個基點，正如我們過去所討論的那樣，我們仍然關注報告和出口之間的增量，而不是絕對水平。總體而言，我們對我們的業績感到滿意，並相信我們將在 2025 年保持強勁勢頭，因為過去幾年提升我們業務的利好因素繼續增強。

As I have described in our recent calls, the backdrop of our senior housing business is only getting better as growth of 80-plus population picks up from here. Starting next year, 5,000 Americans will turn 80 every day. And remember that we are only at the front end of this trend with the crest of the silver tsunami not being seen until well into the future. And what is also irrefutable is the favorable supply outlook. Construction starts continue to drop, and in the third quarter reached the second lowest level on record after the second quarter of 2019.

正如我在最近的電話會議中所描述的，隨著 80 歲以上人口的增長加快，我們的老年住房業務的背景只會變得更好。從明年開始，每天將有 5,000 名美國人年滿 80 歲。請記住，我們僅處於這一趨勢的前端，直到很長一段時間才能看到白銀海嘯的頂峰。同樣無可辯駁的是有利的供應前景。建築開工量持續下降，第三季達到繼2019年第二季之後有紀錄以來的第二低水準。

Banks continue to wind down their senior housing loan exposure and be reluctant to put new capital to work. And given the extended timeline to build a new senior living community in our market, which we detailed on slide 19 of our business update, we may not face the impact of new supply in our markets for years.

銀行繼續減少高級房屋貸款敞口，並且不願投入新資本。鑑於在我們的市場上建立新的老年生活社區的時間較長（我們在業務更新的幻燈片 19 中詳細介紹了這一點），我們可能會在未來幾年內不會面臨市場新供應的影響。

Frankly, in today's construction cost and financing cost environment, it makes no economic sense to build. We have had a couple of years of solid growth, but we believe that we are still in the very early stages of an extended period of extraordinary growth for the senior housing sector. And without stealing John's thunder, this end market demand growth will be amplified by the rollout of our operating platform.

坦白說，在當今的建設成本和融資成本環境下，建設沒有經濟意義。我們已經經歷了幾年的穩健成長，但我們相信，我們仍處於老年住房行業長期超常成長的早期階段。在不搶約翰的風頭的情況下，我們營運平台的推出將放大終端市場需求的成長。

I'm delighted to report that during the quarter, we went live with our tech platform, at our first set of properties, along with preparing to broaden and accelerate the rollout in the near term. Beyond the technology rollout, we expect our broader operating platform initiatives, including our hands on asset management, to have a compounding effect on our portfolio's outperformance.

我很高興地向大家報告，在本季度，我們在第一批資產中啟用了我們的技術平台，並準備在短期內擴大和加速推出。除了技術的推出之外，我們預計更廣泛的營運平台計劃（包括我們對資產管理的實踐）將對我們的投資組合的優異表現產生複合效應。

Shifting to capital deployment. The only change we have observed since our last call is that the opportunity set has expanded further. We announced another $1.2 billion of transaction completed or under contract since our last quarterly update, bringing our total year-to-date investment activity to over $6 billion.

轉向資本配置。自上次電話會議以來我們觀察到的唯一變化是機會集進一步擴大。自從上一季更新以來，我們宣布又完成或按合約完成 12 億美元的交易，使我們今年迄今的投資活動總額超過 60 億美元。

Nikhil will provide you more details, but as with the last few quarters, most of our investments have been bolt-on acquisitions within senior housing sector, improving and benefiting from our already established regional density. Our goal remains to go deep in our markets, not broad. While 2024 is shaping out to be a record year for Welltower in terms of capital deployment, we continue to on out compelling opportunities across all property types, geographies and capital structure and expect a busy Q4 and Q1.

Nikhil 將向您提供更多詳細信息，但與過去幾個季度一樣，我們的大部分投資都是高級住房領域的補強收購，從而改善並受益於我們已經建立的區域密度。我們的目標仍然是深入市場，而不是廣泛市場。雖然 2024 年將成為 Welltower 資本部署創紀錄的一年，但我們將繼續在所有房地產類型、地理和資本結構中尋找令人信服的機會，並預計第四季度和第一季將非常繁忙。

Lastly, I will quickly reiterate that through the exceptional cash flow growth we have achieved this year and prudent funding of our investment activity, our balance sheet has strengthened meaningfully with leverage at 3.7 times and nearly $10 billion of liquidity, we remain well positioned to address all near-term obligations and capitalize attractive investment opportunities, and as we have created flexibility to lean in to the balance sheet to drive further growth at opportune time.

最後，我要快速重申，透過今年實現的非凡現金流成長和對投資活動的審慎融資，我們的資產負債表已顯著增強，槓桿率達到3.7 倍，流動性接近100 億美元，我們仍然有能力解決以下問題：所有近期義務並利用有吸引力的投資機會，並且我們創造了靈活性，可以依靠資產負債表在適當的時候推動進一步成長。

To sum it up, we're starting to see the Lalapalooza effect of cyclical, secular and structural growth driven by our operating platform, which will be further enhanced by bolt-on acquisitions and balance sheet optimization to drive meaningful partial growth. We are singularly focused on this long-term compounding of our par share earnings growth for existing owners, our True North Star. We cannot be distracted, discouraged or dissuaded.

總而言之，我們開始看到由我們的營運平台驅動的周期性、長期和結構性成長的拉拉帕盧扎效應，這一效應將透過補強收購和資產負債表優化進一步增強，以推動有意義的部分增長。我們特別關注現有所有者的面值股票收益成長的長期複合，即我們的真正北極星。我們不能分心、灰心或勸阻。

With that, I will turn the call over to John.

這樣，我就把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Shankh, and good morning, everyone. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we posted another quarter of fantastic results with no letup and momentum, which continues to build across the business. Before getting into the details, I'll echo Shankh's sentiment that we're looking forward to closing out the year on a strong note and excited for another period of solid growth in 2025 and beyond.

謝謝你，尚赫，大家早安。冒著聽起來像是破紀錄的風險，我們又發布了一個季度的出色業績，沒有任何鬆懈和勢頭，這種勢頭在整個業務中繼續增強。在詳細介紹之前，我先重申 Shankh 的觀點，我們期待以強勁的勢頭結束這一年，並對 2025 年及以後的又一個穩健增長期感到興奮。

During the quarter, total portfolio same-store NOI increased 12.6% versus the year ago period, once again, led by our senior housing operating portfolio. First, I'll provide an update on our outpatient medical business, which posted year-over-year same-store NOI growth of 2.2%.

本季度，在我們的高級住房營運投資組合的帶動下，總投資組合同店 NOI 較去年同期成長 12.6%。首先，我將介紹我們門診醫療業務的最新情況，該業務的同店 NOI 年比成長 2.2%。

The consistency of the business remains evident with healthy leasing activity during the period and another quarter of strong tenant retention. Same-store occupancy remains stable at an industry-leading 94.5%. As for the senior housing business, the business continues to deliver exceptional results.

在此期間，租賃活動健康發展，租戶留任率強勁，業務的一致性依然明顯。同店入住率穩定在業界領先的 94.5%。至於老年住房業務，該業務持續取得優異的業績。

Demand for needs-based product is clearly on the rise and our proactive asset management initiatives, which I'll get into shortly are unquestionably delivering help. In the third quarter, the portfolio achieved year-over-year same-store NOI growth of 23%, once again exceeding our expectations and allowing us to yet again raise our full year outlook, which Tim will describe shortly.

對基於需求的產品的需求顯然正在增長，而我們的主動資產管理舉措（我將很快介紹）無疑會提供幫助。第三季度，該投資組合實現了 23% 的同店 NOI 同比增長，再次超出了我們的預期，使我們能夠再次提高全年預期，蒂姆將很快對此進行描述。

The strength in our senior housing business was broad-based with solid occupancy gains experienced across all our geographies and property types. It's worth repeating that while the summer months typically represent the most active period of leasing during the year, our sequential same-store occupancy gain of 120 basis points and spot-to-spot gain of 160 basis points are well above typical seasonal trends.

我們的老年住房業務實力雄厚，在所有地區和物業類型中均取得了穩固的入住率成長。值得重申的是，雖然夏季通常是一年中租賃最活躍的時期，但我們的同店入住率環比增長 120 個基點，點對點增長 160 個基點，遠高於典型的季節性趨勢。

In fact, this quarter tied a record for sequential same-store occupancy growth when excluding the second half of 2021 as we were going out of COVID. On a year-over-year basis, same-store occupancy increased 310 basis points, also amongst the highest levels ever achieved in our history. Rate growth across the portfolio also remained strong with same-store RevPAR growth increasing 4.9% year-over-year.

事實上，排除 2021 年下半年的影響，本季的同店入住率環比增長創下了紀錄，因為我們即將擺脫新冠疫情的影響。與去年同期相比，同店入住率增加了 310 個基點，也是我們歷史上達到的最高水準。整個投資組合的利率成長也保持強勁，同店 RevPAR 成長較去年同期成長 4.9%。

While our budgeting process for next year is just starting. We believe that rate growth should once again remain favorable as portfolio vacancy declined further and our pricing initiatives began to bear fruit. More to come in the coming months. In terms of expenses, we continue to be encouraged by trends within the labor market and further moderation of broader inflationary pressures. Expo or extents for occupied room increased just 0.7% year-over-year, the second lowest level in our history.

而我們明年的預算流程才剛開始。我們認為，隨著投資組合空缺進一步下降以及我們的定價措施開始取得成果，利率成長應再次保持有利。未來幾個月還會有更多內容。在支出方面，我們繼續對勞動市場的趨勢和更廣泛的通膨壓力的進一步緩和感到鼓舞。世博會或佔用房間面積年增 0.7%，是我們歷史上第二低的水平。

Most importantly, though, as Shankh mentioned, the spread between RevPAR and X4 growth remains historically wide, contributing to another quarter of substantial operating margin expansion. At 26.5%, the NOI margin for our same-store portfolio remains below pre-COVID levels, but we expect to continue -- we expect continued improvement going forward as the operating leverage inherent in the business is recognized. The other big driver of future margin expansion will be our operating platform.

但最重要的是，正如 Shankh 提到的那樣，RevPAR 和 X4 成長之間的差距仍然處於歷史最高水平，這促成了又一個季度營業利潤率的大幅擴張。我們同店投資組合的 NOI 利潤率為 26.5%，仍低於新冠疫情前的水平，但我們預計會繼續改善——隨著業務固有的營運槓桿得到認可，我們預計未來將繼續改善。未來利潤率擴張的另一個重要推動力將是我們的營運平台。

Our operating platform includes the technology platform and other site-level technology and internal capital team, which I referenced last quarter, our data science capabilities and more. I continue to recruit top talent and build out various capabilities that we leverage with our operators and our asset management team across our portfolio to deliver outcome.

我們的營運平台包括技術平台和其他站點級技術和內部資本團隊（我上季度提到過）、我們的數據科學能力等等。我繼續招募頂尖人才，並建立各種能力，與我們的營運商和資產管理團隊一起在我們的投資組合中實現成果。

During our last call, I mentioned that we would soon be going live with our first technology platform in Q3, launching an end-to-end tech platform with our first operator. I'm pleased to report that through the dedicated efforts of the Welltower team and our operator, it has been very successful for all stakeholders. The customer experience is a modern digital experience, substantially simplifying and shortening the move-in process for the family and the residents by eliminating paperwork.

在上次通話中，我提到我們很快就會在第三季啟用我們的第一個技術平台，與我們的第一個運營商一起推出端到端技術平台。我很高興地向大家報告，透過 Welltower 團隊和我們營運商的不懈努力，所有利害關係人都取得了非常成功的成果。客戶體驗是一種現代數位體驗，透過消除文書工作，大大簡化和縮短了家庭和居民的入住流程。

The employee experience has improved dramatically as we have simplified and/or automated the processes as well as providing employees with important real-time data, ensuring top care for our customers. As a result of the technology platform, the executive directors are saving five hours per move-in and enabling them more time for leadership and to focus on our customers.

隨著我們簡化和/或自動化流程以及為員工提供重要的即時數據，確保為客戶提供一流的服務，員工體驗得到了顯著改善。透過此技術平台，執行董事每次入住可節省五個小時，使他們有更多時間發揮領導作用並專注於我們的客戶。

Additionally, potential errors are being avoided due to the singular database for the various modules, meaning that data is only input once, so there are no inconsistencies in the selling of a customer's name or other critical care information. And finally, we deliver the technology platform at a lower cost than the combined disparate systems being replaced. At this point, we're preparing to roll out the tech platform to additional operators in the near term.

此外，由於各個模組採用單一資料庫，因此可以避免潛在的錯誤，這意味著資料只需輸入一次，因此在銷售客戶姓名或其他重症監護資訊時不會出現不一致的情況。最後，我們以比被替換的組合不同系統更低的成本提供技術平台。目前，我們正準備在短期內向更多業者推出該技術平台。

While we have a long way to go, we're excited by our initial success, which would not have been possible without the hard work and buy-in from our best-in-class operating partners and the many Welltower team members who are working tirelessly on this effort. To sum it up, it was another strong quarter for Welltower between solid operating performance and our accomplishments on various operations and asset management initiatives.

雖然我們還有很長的路要走，但我們對最初的成功感到興奮，如果沒有我們一流的營運合作夥伴和許多正在努力的 Welltower 團隊成員的辛勤工作和支持，這是不可能實現的孜孜不倦地致力於這項努力。總而言之，對於 Welltower 來說，這是又一個強勁的季度，穩健的營運業績以及我們在各種營運和資產管理計劃方面取得的成就。

While it's too early to speak to the outlook for 2025 with any detail, we remain as optimistic as ever on the growth prospects of our business as the demand-supply backdrop for senior housing is only strengthening and the benefits of the operating platform begin to be realized in a more meaningful way. We continue to execute on our mission to improve the experience of senior housing residents and employees.

雖然現在談論 2025 年的任何細節還為時過早，但我們對我們業務的增長前景仍一如既往地樂觀，因為高級住房的供需背景只會加強，而且運營平台的優勢開始顯現。方式實現。我們繼續履行改善老年住房居民和員工體驗的使命。

With that, I'll turn it over to Nikhil.

有了這個，我會把它交給尼基爾。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. I am pleased to report that our investment activity and pipeline remain incredibly robust, visible and actionable. Over the past three months since our last call, we have either acquired or entered into agreements to acquire an additional $1.2 billion of assets. This is a fraction of the $15 billion-plus of opportunities that we considered during this time frame. These incremental transactions bring our year-to-date investment activity to a record-setting $6.1 billion.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。我很高興地向大家報告，我們的投資活動和管道仍然非常強勁、可見且可操作。自上次電話會議以來的過去三個月裡，我們已經收購或簽訂了收購額外 12 億美元資產的協議。這只是我們在此期間考慮的 150 億美元以上機會的一小部分。這些增量交易使我們今年迄今的投資活動達到創紀錄的 61 億美元。

This growth underscores the strength of our market position and the abundance of opportunities we're pursuing. As always, our focus and excitement are driven by the expected attractive risk-adjusted returns of our transaction activity rather than the deal volume.

這種成長凸顯了我們市場地位的實力以及我們正在追求的豐富機會。一如既往，我們的關注點和興奮點是由交易活動預期有吸引力的風險調整回報驅動的，而不是交易量。

Acquiring quality assets at a reasonable basis with significant cash flow growth prospects remains at the core of our investment strategy. In the third quarter, we closed on $2.15 billion of transactions. Our activity remains granular with Q3 closings spanning 15 different transactions across 13 different operating partners and a median transaction size of $56 million.

以合理的基礎收購具有顯著現金流成長前景的優質資產仍然是我們投資策略的核心。第三季度，我們完成了 21.5 億美元的交易。我們的活動仍然很精細，第三季的結案涉及 13 個不同營運合作夥伴的 15 筆不同交易，交易規模中位數為 5,600 萬美元。

Our Q3 transactions were heavily focused on our seniors and wellness housing businesses, where we added 40 properties and more than 5,200 units. We acquired these assets, which have an average age of just over five years at $244,000 per unit at a significant discount to replacement cost.

我們第三季的交易主要集中在我們的老年人和健康住房業務上，我們增加了 40 處房產和 5,200 多個單位。我們以每單位 244,000 美元的價格收購了這些資產，這些資產的平均壽命剛剛超過 5 年，且與重置成本相比有很大折扣。

We expect our transactions that closed this quarter to stabilize in the mid- to high 7s yield and generate an unlevered IRR in excess of 10%. Our team's reputation, expertise and network continue to drive our success. An impressive 94% of our investment volume by dollars this quarter was acquired through off-market transactions.

我們預計本季完成的交易將穩定在 7 美元中高的收益率，並產生超過 10% 的無槓桿 IRR。我們團隊的聲譽、專業知識和人脈繼續推動我們的成功。本季我們的美元投資額中有 94% 是透過場外交易獲得的，令人印象深刻。

This approach has allowed us to source opportunities from a diverse range of sellers, including six transactions from developers facing maturing construction loans, three from foreign counterparties, including two from Asia and one from Central -- or from Continental Europe, four transactions with repeat counterparties, highlighting our reputation as a fair and reliable partner. I'd like to quickly reflect on the macroeconomic trends we have witnessed recently.

這種方法使我們能夠從不同的賣方那裡尋找機會，其中包括來自面臨到期建築貸款的開發商的六筆交易，三筆來自外國交易對手的交易，其中兩筆來自亞洲，一筆來自中歐或歐洲大陸，四筆與重複交易對手的交易，凸顯我們作為公平可靠合作夥伴的聲譽。我想快速回顧一下我們最近看到的宏觀經濟趨勢。

Despite the 50-basis point rate cut by the Fed, the 10-year treasury yield has increased by over 60 basis points since the announced cut as market participants are now wrestling with the likelihood of long rates staying higher for longer. We laid the case out for this scenario in detail on our last call. The impact of the rate cut to borrowers with floating rate debt is de minimis as they still face debt maturity challenges as bank lenders continue to reduce their senior housing exposure.

儘管聯準會降息了 50 個基點，但自宣布降息以來，10 年期公債殖利率已上漲了 60 個基點以上，因為市場參與者現在正在努力應對長期利率長期維持較高水平的可能性。我們在上次電話會議中詳細闡述了這種情況的情況。降息對浮動利率債務借款人的影響微乎其微，因為隨著銀行貸款人繼續減少其高級住房風險敞口，他們仍然面臨債務到期挑戰。

3Q earnings results for many banks that have historically been active in the senior space focused on highlighting their desire to continue to reduce their exposure to our sector. Agency financing also remained challenging due to limited stable product and elevated DSCR requirements and higher long-term rates. It's not surprising that with this backdrop, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac origination volumes are down 91% and 71%, respectively, versus their pre-pandemic peaks.

許多歷來活躍於高級領域的銀行的第三季度收益結果重點強調了他們繼續減少對我們行業的敞口的願望。由於穩定產品有限、DSCR 要求提高以及長期利率較高，機構融資也仍充滿挑戰。在此背景下，房利美 (Fannie Mae) 和房地美 (Freddie Mac) 的發行量較疫情前的峰值分別下降 91% 和 71%，這並不奇怪。

This constrained lending environment continues to create attractive investment opportunities for us. On the back of this environment, we are engaged in direct bilateral conversations with eight of our highly respective private peers to evaluate significant portions of their portfolios for potential acquisitions.

這種受限的貸款環境持續為我們創造有吸引力的投資機會。在這種環境的支持下，我們與八家高度各自的私人同行進行了直接雙邊對話，以評估他們投資組合的重要部分以進行潛在收購。

We are also seeing an increase in interest from sellers requesting to take Welltower OP units in transaction consideration in lieu of cash. This allows those exiting their asset level positions to have a mechanism for continuing to participate in the strong tailwinds of our industry, but in a manner not constrained by an unforgiving capital structure and with our best in business operating partners backed by Welltower's operating platform.

我們還發現，賣家的興趣有所增加，要求以 Welltower OP 單位代替現金作為交易對價。這使得那些退出資產水平頭寸的人能夠擁有一種機制，繼續參與我們行業的強勁順風車，但不受無情資本結構的限制，並得到 Welltower 運營平台支持的我們最好的業務運營合作夥伴。

This proactive and collaborative approach underscores our commitment to continuing to unlock interesting opportunities while conducting business in a first-class and mutually beneficial manner. In conclusion, in this volatile capital markets environment, we are focused on leveraging our expertise and data science platform with our operating partners and peer relationships to capitalize on attractive opportunities to create long-term value for our shareholders. Thank you for your continued support and confidence in our team.

這種積極主動的協作方式強調了我們致力於繼續釋放有趣的機會，同時以一流和互利的方式開展業務。總之，在這個動盪的資本市場環境中，我們專注於利用我們的專業知識和數據科學平台與我們的營運合作夥伴和同行關係，並利用有吸引力的機會為股東創造長期價值。感謝您對我們團隊一如既往的支持與信任。

I'll now hand the call over to Tim to walk through our financial results.

現在我將把電話轉交給提姆，讓他詳細介紹我們的財務表現。

Thank you, Nikhil. My comments today will focus on our third-quarter results, performance of our triple net investment segments, our capital activity a balance sheet and liquidity update, and finally, an update to our full year 2024 outlook. Welltower reported third-quarter net income attributable to common stockholders of $0.73 per diluted share, and normalized funds collaboration of $1.11 diluted share, representing 20.7% year-over-year growth. We also reported year-over-year total portfolio same-store NOI growth of 12.6%.

謝謝你，尼基爾。我今天的評論將重點放在我們的第三季業績、三重淨投資部門的業績、我們的資本活動、資產負債表和流動性更新，最後是我們 2024 年全年展望的更新。 Welltower 公佈第三季歸屬於普通股股東的攤薄後淨利為 0.73 美元，正常化基金合作攤薄後每股收益為 1.11 美元，較去年同期成長 20.7%。我們也報告了總投資組合同店 NOI 年成長 12.6%。

Now turning to the performance of our triple-net properties in the quarter. As a reminder, our triple-net lease portfolio coverage stats reported a quarter in arrears. So these statistics reflect the trailing 12 months ending 6/30/2024. In our senior housing triple-net portfolio, same-store NOI increased 5.8% year-over-year and trailing 12-month EBITDA coverage was 1.09 times, marking a new post-COVID high coverage.

現在轉向我們本季三網物業的表現。提醒一下，我們的三網租賃投資組合覆蓋統計數據顯示有四分之一的拖欠。因此，這些統計數據反映了截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日的過去 12 個月。在我們的老年住房三網投資組合中，同店 NOI 年比成長 5.8%，過去 12 個月 EBITDA 覆蓋率為 1.09 倍，創下新冠疫情後的新高覆蓋率。

Coverage in this portfolio continues to improve above pre-pandemic levels and greater-than-expected growth in this portfolio is being driven by improving underlying fundamentals and leases currently on a cash basis. Next, same-store NOI in our long-term post view portfolio grew 3% year-over-year and trailing 12-month EBITDA coverage of 1.74 times.

該投資組合的覆蓋範圍繼續高於大流行前的水平，並且該投資組合超出預期的增長是由基本面改善和目前以現金為基礎的租賃推動的。接下來，我們的長期後視圖投資組合中的同店 NOI 年比成長 3%，過去 12 個月 EBITDA 覆蓋率達到 1.74 倍。

Moving on to capital activity. In July, we issued a $1.035 billion convertible note due in 2029. Proceeds from the note digress our 2025 unsecured maturities coming due in the second quarter of next year. We continue to equity finance our investment activity in the quarter, raising $1.2 billion of gross proceeds and average price of $122 per share. This allowed us to fund $2 billion in net investment activity and ended the quarter with $3.8 billion of cash and restricted cash on the balance sheet.

轉向資本活動。 7 月，我們發行了 10.35 億美元的可轉換票據，將於 2029 年到期。本季我們繼續對投資活動進行股權融資，籌集了 12 億美元的總收益，平均價格為每股 122 美元。這使我們能夠為 20 億美元的淨投資活動提供資金，並在本季末資產負債表上擁有 38 億美元的現金和限制性現金。

Staying with the balance sheet, rented this quarter with 3.73 times net debt and adjusted EBITDA. And even after completing $1.5 billion in incremental net investment activity, we expect to end the year below 4 times net debt to EBITDA, which would represent over a one-turn improvement relative to the end of 2023. This level of deleveraging is being achieved despite deploying a record amount of capital.

繼續關注資產負債表，本季的租金為淨債務和調整後 EBITDA 的 3.73 倍。即使完成了 15 億美元的增量淨投資活動，我們預計今年年底的淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率仍將低於 4 倍，這將比 2023 年底實現一輪改善。

Our tax capitalization of acquisitions and a significant increase in our cash flow generation has allowed us to build a powerful asset that will allow us to prudently fund future investments, enhance our go-forward cash flow per share growth. To illustrate the substantial increase in balance sheet capacity.

我們的收購稅收資本化和現金流量的顯著增加使我們能夠建立強大的資產，使我們能夠審慎地為未來的投資提供資金，提高我們的每股現金流成長。足以說明資產負債表能力的大幅增加。

As Shankh mentioned earlier, our annualized revenue is $8.2 billion per quarter. This signifies a $3.2 billion increase compared to the end of 2019. While our net debt has decreased by $2.7 billion during that same period, reflecting a 20% decrease from pre-COVID levels, concurred with a 60% revenue increase over that same period. It is noteworthy that our current debt stack includes $2.1 million in convertible notes that are in the money. This deleveraging should be amplified through the embedded upside within our senior housing operating portfolio.

正如 Shankh 先前提到的，我們每季的年化收入為 82 億美元。這意味著與 2019 年底相比增加了 32 億美元。值得注意的是，我們目前的債務堆疊包括價值 210 萬美元的可轉換票據。這種去槓桿化應該透過我們的高級住房營運投資組合的內在優勢來放大。

further bolstering balance sheet capacity and providing re-crease flexibility and optionality. Lastly, as I turn to our updated 2024 guidance, I want to remind you that we have not included any investment activity or outlook beyond the $6.1 billion to date that has been closed or publicly announced. Last night, we updated our full year 2024 outlook for net income, attributable to common stockholders to $1.75 to $1.81 per diluted share and normalized FFO of $4.27 to $4.33 per diluted share or $4.30 at the midpoint.

進一步增強資產負債表能力並提供重新增加的靈活性和選擇性。最後，當我談到我們更新的 2024 年指引時，我想提醒您，我們尚未納入迄今為止已結束或公開宣布的 61 億美元以外的任何投資活動或前景。昨晚，我們將 2024 年全年歸屬於普通股股東的淨利潤展望更新為稀釋後每股 1.75 美元至 1.81 美元，標準化 FFO 為稀釋後每股 4.27 美元至 4.33 美元，中間值為 4.30 美元。

Our updated normalized FFO guidance represents a $0.13 per share increase at the midpoint from our previously issued guidance. This increase is composed of $0.06 from an improved NOI outlook in our senior housing operating portfolio, $0.015 from taxes and FX, $0.01 from performance in our triple net OM segments and $0.045 accretive capital activity.

我們更新的標準化 FFO 指引較先前發布的指引中位數每股增加 0.13 美元。這一增長包括 0.06 美元來自我們高級住房運營投資組合 NOI 前景改善、0.015 美元來自稅收和外匯、0.01 美元來自我們三重淨 OM 部門的業績以及 0.045 美元增值資本活動。

Underlying this increased FFO per share guidance is an increase in estimated total portfolio year-over-year same-store growth to 11.5% to 13%, driven by subsegment growth of outpatient medical, 2% to 3%; long-term post due 2% to 3%; senior housing triple net, 4% to 5%; and finally, increased senior housing operating growth of 22% to 24%. This is driven by the following midpoint of the respective ranges. Revenue growth of 9.2% made up of RevPOR growth of 5.25% and year-over-year occupancy growth of 300 basis points, an expense growth of 5%.

每股 FFO 指引增加的基礎是，在門診醫療細分市場成長 2% 至 3% 的推動下，預計總投資組合同店年增至 11.5% 至 13%；長期欠款2%至3%；高級住房三重淨，4%至5%；最後，高級住房營運成長率提高了 22% 至 24%。這是由各個範圍的以下中點驅動的。營收成長 9.2%，其中 RevPOR 成長 5.25%，入住率年增 300 個基點，費用成長 5%。

And with that, I'll hand the call back over to Shankh.

然後，我會將電話轉回給 Shankh。

Thank you, Tim. As many of you, my fellow shareholders know that my team and I are true believers that compounding is the only way to create substantial long-term value. Compounding not just in the context of middle school math but in everything in light. We define compounding as dogged incremental and continuous progress over a very long period of time.

謝謝你，提姆。正如你們中的許多人一樣，我的股東們都知道，我和我的團隊都堅信複利是創造巨大長期價值的唯一方法。複利不僅在中學數學的背景下，而且在光的一切事物中。我們將複利定義為在很長一段時間內堅持不懈的增量和持續進步。

And for this team, it has been close to a decade since we took our predecessor company down to its start by turning over roughly 60% of the portfolio, changing out 95% of our human capital in middle management and up, evolving our operating partners, while creating greater alignment through win-win structures and so on.

對於這個團隊來說，自從我們將前身公司從一開始就轉變了大約60% 的投資組合、更換了中層及以上95% 的人力資本、發展了我們的營運合作夥伴以來，已經過去了近十年的時間。

More importantly, we change this company's culture as we build what you know as well out there, brick by brick. We founded a culture owners, not manage us with agency problems, a culture of shared value with our operating partners to deliver real value for our customers and site level employees, shoulder to shoulder, no matter what.

更重要的是，我們改變了公司的文化，因為我們一磚一瓦地打造出您所熟知的東西。我們建立了一種所有者文化，而不是用代理問題來管理我們，一種與我們的營運合作夥伴共享價值的文化，無論發生什麼，都能肩並肩地為我們的客戶和現場員工提供真正的價值。

A culture of resilience having endured four different crisis over the last past decade. Crisis included oversupply, a crippling pandemic, labor outage and the worst inflation in 40 years. A culture of extreme excellence to build and create a true residual alpha for our owners, not defined by Wall Street's view, a real estate industry, which has a checkout history of creating value. we're focused on creating alpha, not levered beta for existing owners.

在過去十年中經歷了四次不同危機的韌性文化。危機包括供應過剩、嚴重的流行病、勞動力短缺和 40 年來最嚴重的通貨膨脹。一種極端卓越的文化，為我們的業主建立和創造真正的剩餘阿爾法，而不是由華爾街的觀點所定義，房地產行業有著創造價值的歷史。我們專注於為現有所有者創造阿爾法，而不是槓桿貝塔。

Over the past decade, we have built a unique data science platform, the first of its kind in real estate industry, powered initially by machine learning, then deep learning and finally, by AI, well before many of these times got into the folklore.

在過去的十年裡，我們建立了一個獨特的數據科學平台，這是房地產行業的第一個此類平台，最初由機器學習、然後是深度學習、最後由人工智慧提供支持，遠早於其中許多時代進入民間傳說。

And finally, with Chutzpah and perhaps Naïveté we launched an open platform initiative by attracting John and hundreds of our new colleagues who followed him from adjusting industries of higher standards during a pandemic no less, when we didn't even know if the business would survive. I sat down this past weekend to reflect on our Q3 results. And for the first time, since I arrived at Welltower, I felt a sense of satisfaction in that the compounding of our efforts over the course of many years is beginning to pay off.

最後，我們與 Chutzpah 甚至 Naïveté 一起發起了一項開放平台計劃，吸引了約翰和數百名新同事，他們跟隨他在大流行期間調整了更高標準的行業，當時我們甚至不知道是否企業就會生存下來。上週末我坐下來反思我們第三季的業績。自從我來到 Welltower 以來，我第一次感到一種滿足感，因為我們多年來的努力開始得到回報。

Not because of the strong results we posted in the quarter, but because of a feeling that our audacious ream of transforming this industry is finally coming together and what that may potent for next few years. Having said that, this feeling lasted for about 5 minutes as my usual healthy paranoia set in.

不是因為我們在本季度發布了強勁的業績，而是因為我們感覺到我們對這個行業進行變革的大膽努力終於走到了一起，並且這在未來幾年可能會產生巨大的影響。話雖如此，這種感覺持續了大約 5 分鐘，因為我通常的健康偏執開始了。

We have a long journey ahead, and frankly, that our pursuit of dogged incremental and continuous progress will never be over. Mediocrity and complacency have no place in our culture. Like Navy Seals, we believe the only easy day was yesterday. When occasionally, in moments like this, looking at the scoreboard may not be so bad, we're in this game because of a love for the game. And with that, we'll be back to the game.

我們的路還很長，坦白說，我們對漸進和持續進步的追求永遠不會結束。平庸和自滿在我們的文化中沒有立足之地。就像海豹突擊隊一樣，我們相信唯一輕鬆的一天就是昨天。偶爾，在這樣的時刻，看看記分牌可能並沒有那麼糟糕，我們參與這場比賽是因為對比賽的熱愛。就這樣，我們將回到遊戲中。

Operator, please open the call up for questions.

接線員，請撥打電話詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Jonathan Hughes, Raymond James.

喬納森·休斯，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hi there. Thank you for the time, and great to see the strong results. Hoping you could talk more about the historically wide gap between unit revenue and unit expense and margins? And specifically trying to understand the incremental margin at today's 86% occupancy and where that incremental margin goes once occupancy surpasses 90% or even higher since variable costs at that point are minimal. Thank you.

你好呀。感謝您抽出時間，很高興看到強勁的成果。希望您能多談談單位收入與單位費用和利潤率之間歷史上的巨大差距？特別是試圖了解目前 86% 入住率的增量利潤率，以及一旦入住率超過 90% 甚至更高時增量利潤率的去向，因為此時的可變成本很小。謝謝。

Thanks, Jonathan. So you're right in highlighting that the way that, that kind of RevPOR export math is expressed through our financials is in that flow through margin. So last quarter, we noted that flow-through margins had gone above 60% for the first time since the kind of post-COVID recovery. Again, this quarter, we were 60% on flow through. Important to note that we had one operator making up about 1% of our same-store pool that through some kind of changes to their operating model or implementing and higher expenses right now than we'd expect.

謝謝，喬納森。因此，您強調的是，透過我們的財務數據表達的 RevPOR 出口數學是透過利潤率來表達的，這是正確的。因此，上個季度，我們注意到自新冠疫情後復甦以來，流通利潤率首次超過 60%。同樣，本季我們的流量利用率為 60%。值得注意的是，我們有一家業者約占我們同店池的 1%，他們透過對其營運模式或實施進行某種改變，目前的費用比我們預期的要高。

So ex that operator flow through margins are closer to 67%. So consistent with what we've said in the past, you should see flow-through margins kind of move into the mid-60s and approach 70% as we start to reapproach kind of pre-COVID levels of occupancy of 88% and then from there on, improved.

因此，營運商流量利潤率接近 67%。因此，與我們過去所說的一致，當我們開始重新接近新冠疫情前 88% 的入住率水平時，您應該會看到流通利潤率進入 60 年代中期並接近 70%，然後從在那裡，改進了。

Michael Griffin, Citi.

邁克爾·格里芬，花旗銀行。

Thanks. Nick Joseph here with Michael. Shankh, you had made the comment that it makes no economic sense to build. And I know it's hard to generalize, and obviously, it's regional, but I'm just trying to get a sense of how far off we are before it does make economic sense either from a rent growth perspective or costs coming down? Just trying to quantify that a bit. Thank you.

謝謝。尼克約瑟夫和邁克爾在這裡。 Shankh，你曾說過建造它沒有經濟意義。我知道這很難一概而論，而且顯然，這是區域性的，但我只是想了解一下，無論是從租金增長的角度還是從成本下降的角度來看，在它確實具有經濟意義之前，我們離這個目標還有多遠？只是想稍微量化一下。謝謝。

Nick, really good question. It's hard to say in a general matter because cost is a function of local situation, labor, et cetera. We haven't seen construction costs come down. You have seen some material costs have come down, which has been surpassed, obviously taken up more by insurance and labor cost. So if you just want to sort of have a general rule of thumb.

尼克，真是個好問題。一般情況下很難說，因為成本是當地情況、勞動力等因素的函數。我們還沒有看到建築成本下降。你看到一些材料成本下降了，已經超過了，顯然保險和人工成本佔據了更多。因此，如果您只是想掌握一般的經驗法則。

Remember, rent growth will not get you there. Rent growth relative to labor costs, operating labor cost growth will get you there, right? So you need, in markets, 25%, 30% increase of RevPOR in export, where construction will start to make sense. I always believe people will do what makes economic sense.

請記住，租金成長不會讓你實現這一目標。相對於勞動成本的租金成長、營運勞動成本的成長會讓你實現這一點，對嗎？因此，在市場上，出口的 RevPOR 需要增加 25%、30%，這樣建設才開始有意義。我始終相信人們會做對經濟有意義的事。

And we have tried to make it work in the best location where pricing is not a cost we're struggling with that. That's the best locations such as Palm Beach and Cupertino of the world. Imagine your question is that average of the industry where this makes no economic sense whatsoever.

我們試圖讓它在最好的地方發揮作用，在那裡定價不是我們正在努力解決的成本。那是世界上最好的地點，如棕櫚灘和庫比蒂諾。想像一下，您的問題是行業的平均水平，而這在經濟上毫無意義。

Ronald Kamdem, Morgan Stanley.

羅納德‧卡姆德姆，摩根士丹利。

Hey. Just a quick one for me. So I've been sort of reflecting over this top line growth of 8%, where you got over 300 basis point occupancy gain 5% sort of pricing growth, which is basically the fastest out of any rates that we cover. And I think we're all trying to figure out what that number is going to look like in 2025.

嘿。對我來說只是一個快速的。因此，我一直在反思 8% 的營收成長，入住率成長超過 300 個基點，價格成長 5%，這基本上是我們涵蓋的所有費率中最快的。我認為我們都在努力弄清楚 2025 年這個數字會是什麼樣子。

So again, my question would be, as you sort of reflect on that number, maybe a little bit more color of what drives that? Is there anything sort of one timing? And not putting words in your mouth, but is there a reason that we should expect that to decelerate as we flip the calendar? Thanks.

那麼，我的問題是，當你思考這個數字時，也許對推動這個數字的因素有更多的了解？有沒有某種單一的時機？雖然不是說出來，但我們有理由認為隨著日曆的翻動，這種速度會放緩嗎？謝謝。

Very good question. We're not going to try to speculate what 2025 will look like. I'm going to point out a couple of things. John made a specific comment in his prepared remarks about how he's feeling about pricing. We'll see what the market gives us.

非常好的問題。我們不會嘗試推測 2025 年會是什麼樣子。我要指出幾件事。約翰在他準備好的評論中就他對定價的感受發表了具體評論。我們將看看市場給我們什麼。

I will tell you that we would have market share increase. So -- but at the end of the day, everybody is subject to market. We are focused on RevPOR minus export, not RevPOR. Having said that, you can focus on what John said in his prepared remarks. I will remind you from an occupancy standpoint, remember, revenue is a focus is a fund of pricing and occupancy.

我會告訴你，我們的市佔率將會增加。所以——但歸根結底，每個人都會受到市場的影響。我們關注的是 RevPOR 減去出口，而不是 RevPOR。話雖如此，你可以關注約翰在他準備好的演講中所說的話。我會從入住率的角度提醒您，請記住，收入是一個焦點，是定價和入住率的資金。

I'm going to refocus you what I've said on the last call, and I said occupancy can not necessarily saying it well, but can get growth, can get better next year. And hopefully, after this record sequential occupancy change in third quarter of this year that gives you -- probably gives more credence to the comment I made. I'm willing to say about that much. Hopefully, that's helpful, but just understand, it's too early to say. We'll see what market gives us.

我將重新向您強調我在上次電話會議中所說的內容，我說入住率不一定能說得很好，但可以成長，明年可以變得更好。希望在今年第三季出現創紀錄的連續入住率變化之後，您可能會更加相信我所做的評論。我願意說這麼多。希望這會有所幫助，但請理解，現在說還為時過早。我們將看看市場為我們帶來什麼。

Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.

尼克尤利科，豐業銀行。

Thanks. Yeah, just following up on the topic of occupancy, maybe Shankh or John, can you just talk a little bit about what you saw in the quarter in terms of traffic trends, maybe year-over-year sequentially? And also, how -- if there's -- if you look at getting an even bigger benefit right now from lower turnover in the portfolio?

謝謝。是的，接下來談談入住率的話題，也許是 Shankh 或 John，您能簡單談談您在本季（也許是同比）的流量趨勢嗎？另外，如果有的話，如果您現在考慮從投資組合的較低週轉率中獲得更大的收益，該怎麼辦？

Yeah, I'll jump in. Traffic is up. Additionally, what we saw is higher closing ratios, in other words, our execution is improving, which is a important function of the operating platform there. As it relates to turnover, that's been consistent. No issues there. But the bigger issue is we're executing and taking market share.

是的，我會加入。另外，我們看到的是成交率更高，換句話說，我們的執行力正在提高，這是那裡的營運平台的一個重要功能。就營業額而言，這是一致的。那裡沒有問題。但更大的問題是我們正在執行並佔據市場份額。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt，KeyBanc 資本市場。

Great. Thanks. Shankh, you highlighted that you're carrying significant momentum in the '25 and kind of the tailwinds in the business continue to strengthen soon speaking kind of the demographics. But at the same time, I think absorption has been stable in recent quarters across the sector. So just curious if you think we're at the cusp of absorption reaccelerating and that being kind of the kind of going back to your comment about occupancy growth potentially getting better next year?

偉大的。謝謝。 Shankh，您強調說，您在 25 年取得了巨大的發展勢頭，而且就人口統計而言，業務的順風很快就會繼續增強。但同時，我認為近幾季整個產業的吸收量一直保持穩定。因此，我只是好奇，您是否認為我們正處於吸收重新加速的風口浪尖，這有點像回到您關於明年入住率增長可能會更好的評論？

Yeah. Obviously, I'm not going to comment on what may or may not happen in the macro absorption is a macro industry-wide phenomena. As John just mentioned, that we're focused on market share. You can see what our sequential occupancy growth is relative to the industry, that you will see that we're entirely focused on using our operating platform and our best-in-class operators, hard work to get market share, right? If we can get improvement in absorption, that will be a gravy. That's just not something we can control. That's not something we're focused on.

是的。顯然，我不會評論宏觀吸收中可能發生或可能不會發生的宏觀全行業現象。正如約翰剛才提到的，我們關注的是市場佔有率。您可以看到我們相對於行業的連續入住率增長，您會看到我們完全專注於使用我們的營運平台和一流的運營商，努力爭取市場份額，對嗎？如果我們能提高吸收率，那就是肉汁了。這不是我們可以控制的。這不是我們關注的重點。

Vikram Malhotra, Mizuho.

維克拉姆·馬爾霍特拉，瑞穗。

Hey. This is George on for Vikram. So you have highlighted an expanded visible acquisition pipeline. Can you just provide more color on how much of the flow is non-US. And then as a follow-up, what percentage of the deal flow do you pass and say no to? And has that percentage changed recently?

嘿。這是喬治替補維克拉姆。因此，您突出顯示了擴展的可見採集管道。您能否提供更多關於非美國流量的資訊。然後作為後續行動，您通過並拒絕的交易流的百分比是多少？這個百分比最近有變化嗎？

George, on the second question, in my prepared remarks, I talked about how the $1.2 billion of incremental activity we announced this quarter, the universe of opportunities we looked at was $15 billion. So from the $15 billion, we acquired $1.2 billion.

喬治，關於第二個問題，在我準備好的發言中，我談到了我們本季宣布的 12 億美元的增量活動，我們所關注的機會範圍是 150 億美元。因此，我們從 150 億美元中收購了 12 億美元。

That number fluctuates up or down every quarter depending on what we look at. But generally speaking, it's roughly a 10% hedge rate. And then your second question about geographically, I think Shankh said in his remarks. But where we've got active transactions we're looking at it all 300s.

這個數字每季都會上下波動，這取決於我們的觀察。但一般來說，對沖利率大約是10%。然後是關於地理的第二個問題，我想尚赫在他的演講中說道。但凡是有活躍交易的地方，我們都會查看 300 多筆交易。

John Pawlowski, Green Street [Stuart]

約翰·帕夫洛夫斯基，格林街 [斯圖爾特]

Great. Thanks for the time. Question on cap excess senior housing business. It's been running 30% to 45% of NOI over the last year and change. Just curious over the next two to three years, I know there's kind of stabilized NOI that denominator. But over the next two to three years, where do you expect CapEx as a percentage of NOI for the senior house business to start to stabilize that?

偉大的。謝謝你的時間。關於限制超額老年住房業務的問題。去年它運行了 30% 到 45% 的 NOI，並且有所變化。只是好奇在接下來的兩到三年裡，我知道分母的 NOI 會趨於穩定。但在未來兩到三年內，您預期高級住宅業務的資本支出佔 NOI 的百分比將開始穩定在什麼水平？

Yeah. So I'll step in. And John, the question is -- let me give you a broader answer here. So as I mentioned last time, we've created an internal team. We're executing at amazing level where we're both reducing the cost by 20% to 50% on a unit basis and speeding up the time lines.

是的。所以我會介入。正如我上次提到的，我們創建了一個內部團隊。我們的執行程度令人驚嘆，我們將單位成本降低了 20% 到 50%，並加快了時間進度。

We're also changing the fundamental way we do things. Historically, this business is really the operator's function kind of like a PE model, where it's a very short time decision. So for example, you might have an asset that has three buildings and they'll do one roof. And then the next year following roof an the following year, following roof. What that's doing is driving up cost dramatically because of smaller projects because of three mobilizations.

我們也在改變我們做事的基本方式。從歷史上看，這項業務實際上是營運商的職能，有點像 PE 模型，是一個非常短時間的決策。例如，您可能擁有一項包含三棟建築物的資產，並且它們將製作一個屋頂。然後是下一年的屋頂，下一年的屋頂。由於三次動員導致專案規模較小，這樣做的結果是大幅提高成本。

And then you have all kinds of other stuff flowing through like the roof leaks impact on the customer experience and all the issues along those lines. So what's happening right now is we're doing things correctly with the long-term life cycle cost in mind, lowering the long-term run rate. So that means we're pulling some things forward and it won't change the -- it will lower the long-term run rate.

然後還有各種各樣的其他問題，例如屋頂漏水對客戶體驗的影響以及所有這些問題。因此，現在發生的事情是，我們在考慮長期生命週期成本的情況下正確做事，從而降低了長期運作率。因此，這意味著我們正在推進一些事情，但這不會改變——它會降低長期運行率。

But right now, there's some stuff that's elevated because in that example, we'd be doing all three roofs, avoiding the future roof leaks and getting projects behind us and moving forward. So there's a little noise that's going on right now, but it's all for the efforts to lower the long-term run rate and the unit costs are dramatically lower. So it's just absolute -- great execution by the team.

但現在，有一些東西被提升了，因為在那個例子中，我們將完成所有三個屋頂，避免未來的屋頂洩漏，並讓項目在我們身後繼續前進。因此，現在出現了一些噪音，但這都是為了降低長期運行率和單位成本大幅降低而做出的努力。所以這絕對是團隊的優秀執行力。

Michael Carroll, RBC Capital Markets.

麥可卡羅爾，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Yeah. Thanks. Can you guys provide some color on the tech platform rollout that you mentioned? And I know that you have other initiatives that you're working on, but how does this work out financially? I'm assuming Welltower has aided the initial investment to build out these platforms. I mean are your operators paying a recurring fee for this? Or just does it get reflected into significantly better financial results for you as these get rolled out to your operating partners?

是的。謝謝。你們能否對你們所提到的技術平台的推出提供一些說明？我知道您還有其他計劃正在進行，但這在財務上效果如何？我假設 Welltower 已經協助了建構這些平台的初始投資。我的意思是，您的電信業者是否為此支付經常性費用？或者，當這些產品推廣到您的營運合作夥伴時，它是否會反映在您明顯更好的財務表現上？

Yeah, Mike, the goal is clearly the latter part of your question, so significantly better financial results. I would describe kind of the flow of the cost as you're right, the initial investment is coming through Welltower. There's a bit of duplicative cost upfront because we kind of transition into this. You have the legacy technology systems of operators moving over to our own. In the end, this isn't intended to be a cost-saving exercise.

是的，麥克，目標顯然是你問題的後半部分，因此財務表現明顯更好。我會描述一下成本的流程，你是對的，初始投資是透過 Welltower 進行的。前期有一些重複成本，因為我們有點過渡到這個階段。您可以將運營商的遺留技術系統轉移到我們自己的系統上。最後，這並不是為了節省成本。

But it will be -- the tech stack will be less expensive, it will be scaled across our entire operating platform rather than subscale across all of our operators. And that will come through over time. But the initial -- beyond the investment, the initial thought should be there shouldn't be an uptick in costs.

但技術堆疊將會更便宜，它將在我們的整個營運平台上擴展，而不是在我們所有的營運商中進行小規模擴展。隨著時間的推移，這將會實現。但最初——除了投資之外，最初的想法應該是成本不應該上升。

Mike, just remember, one of the things we have to think through, just in addition to what Tim said that software cost is already part of the show up margins, right? So there is costs flowing through our P&L, and it's duplicative in nature today because obviously, you have to make a lot of initial upfront cost. But just as a run rate cost, remember that technology cost is part of the SHOP expense tax.

麥克，請記住，我們必須考慮的一件事是，除了蒂姆所說的軟體成本已經是展示利潤的一部分，對嗎？因此，我們的損益表中存在成本，而且今天本質上是重複的，因為顯然，你必須支付大量的初始前期成本。但正如運行率成本一樣，請記住技術成本是商店費用稅的一部分。

Juan Sanabria, BMO Capital Markets.

Juan Sanabria，BMO 資本市場。

Hi. Thank you. Maybe a question for Nikhil. You mentioned talking to eight private peers. Just hoping you can maybe add a little color on that. Is that larger scale transactions or more of the singles and doubles you've been doing to date?

你好。謝謝。也許有個問題要問尼基爾。您提到與八位私人同行交談。只是希望你可以為此添加一點色彩。這是更大規模的交易還是迄今為止您一直在進行的更多單打和雙打交易？

Yeah. One, as you would imagine, right, when you're talking to different groups, from some of those, you might not look to buy any assets either don't like the asset quality or the valuation. And with some, you might see it in a lot, right? So it's hard to generalize, but just given the numbers you're talking about a different range of outcomes on everyone we're speaking with.

是的。一，正如你想像的那樣，當你與不同的群體交談時，其中一些群體，你可能不會考慮購買任何資產，或不喜歡資產品質或估值。對於某些，您可能會經常看到它，對嗎？所以很難一概而論，但只要考慮到你所談論的數字，我們所交談的每個人都會得到不同範圍的結果。

Joshua Dennerlein, Bank of America.

約書亞·登納林，美國銀行。

Hey, everyone. Thanks for the time. I guess I was looking at your business presentation update, the path to recovery slide on page 21. So the bridge assumes you go back to pre-COVID occupancy and margin at today's rate, it seems like it's a little kind of unrealistic, just given the forward-looking backdrop.

嘿，大家。謝謝你的時間。我想我正在查看您的業務演示更新，即第21 頁上的恢復路徑幻燈片。只是考慮到前瞻性的背景。

I guess how should we think about what else gets layered in beyond this to kind of get to like a bridge? And then maybe tying that into the tech costs you flagged as being part of the SHOP expenses. Like how should we think about that influencing this bridge?

我想我們應該如何考慮除此之外還有什麼可以像一座橋樑一樣分層？然後也許可以將其與您標記為商店費用一部分的技術成本掛鉤。例如我們該如何看待它對這座橋的影響？

Yeah. Josh, it's a good catch. That if you just look at the page of what we are trying to give you a sense of what occupancy growth, how that impacts obviously our NOI embedded NOI growth going back to pre-COVID, I've said this before. If we only go back to pre-COVID, at least John and I are stepping down. We consider that in a complete failure.

是的。喬什，這是一個很好的收穫。如果您只看一下我們試圖讓您了解入住率增長情況的頁面，以及這對我們的 NOI 嵌入 NOI 增長的明顯影響，可以追溯到新冠疫情之前，我之前已經說過了。如果我們回到新冠疫情之前，至少約翰和我要辭職了。我們認為這是徹底的失敗。

So we expect that occupancy growth occupancy will go substantially higher than where the pre-COVID is. However, the most important point is what you made is at today's rate. Remember, what should be added if we are just trying to understand what's the normalized earnings for this company. What you should add, not just whatever you think is the fictional vacancy of our portal should be. That's obviously one act.

因此，我們預計入住率成長將大大高於新冠疫情之前的水平。然而，最重要的一點是，你所做的事情是按照今天的速度進行的。請記住，如果我們只是想了解該公司的正常化收益是多少，則應該添加哪些內容。您應該添加的內容，而不僅僅是您認為是我們入口網站虛構的空缺的內容。這顯然是一種行為。

You have to decide how long it takes that to get -- obviously get to that friction vacancy. And meanwhile, in those years, what's your rev format as export because our rates are growing faster than our expense growth, right? That's adds to that and just also point out that we will see that our first set of numbers we gave you a few years ago when we started giving it the disclosure, that pool of assets, our NOI is actually $33 million higher than pre-COVID. Occupancy is significantly lower. Yet it is $33 million higher.

你必須決定需要多長時間才能達到——顯然是達到那個摩擦空缺。同時，在那些年裡，您的出口轉速格式是什麼，因為我們的費率成長速度快於我們的費用成長，對吧？這增加了這一點，並且還指出，我們將看到幾年前我們開始披露時向您提供的第一組數字，即資產池，我們的 NOI 實際上比新冠疫情爆發前高出 3300 萬美元。入住率明顯較低。但實際價格卻高出了 3,300 萬美元。

You'll see that and I believe the fourth bar on that page, and that's because rates are much higher, right? So you have revs export, get got you to that higher NOI despite lower occupancy, and that same thing follows through as you are thinking about whatever to whatever your definition of frictional vacancy is and that's how you sort of get to the number.

您會看到這一點，我相信該頁面上的第四個欄，那是因為費率要高得多，對吧？因此，你有轉速輸出，儘管入住率較低，但仍能達到較高的NOI，當你思考摩擦性空位的定義是什麼時，同樣的事情也會隨之而來，這就是你得到這個數字的方式。

We're not going to sit here and try to quantify what technology cost may or may not come down. That's not the focus. We think we're after the big ball, which is revenue there is a lot of opportunity on the expense side as we implement systems and processes and have site-level employees focus on why to what has signed up to do, which is providing care that's compassionate care is why they have signed up to be in this industry.

我們不會坐在這裡嘗試量化技術成本可能會或可能不會下降。這不是重點。我們認為我們追求的是大球，即收入，當我們實施系統和流程並讓站點級員工專注於為什麼註冊要做的事情（即提供護理）時，費用方面有很多機會這就是富有同情心的關懷，這就是他們加入這個行業的原因。

So we want to try to make people's life easier. As John pointed out, just for 1 example, our tech suite rollout. It's saving about 5 hours of effort far moving from an executive director's perspective, right? So that she can focus on what she signed up to do, which is leading people and providing care to families, right, care to residents and focusing on the residential families. So you think about it, this is not just a question of cost.

所以我們想努力讓人們的生活更輕鬆。正如約翰指出的，僅舉一個例子，我們的技術套件的推出。從執行董事的角度來看，這節省了大約 5 個小時的精力，對嗎？這樣她就可以專注於報名要做的事情，就是帶人、關心家庭、權利、關心居民、關注居民家庭。所以你想一想，這不僅僅是成本的問題。

When we talk about margins, I don't want you to think about cost. I wanted to think about how we improve overall resident and employee experience and what that means for residents' willingness and ability to pay. Thank you very much for the question.

當我們談論利潤時，我不希望你考慮成本。我想思考如何改善居民和員工的整體體驗，以及這對居民的支付意願和能力意味著什麼。非常感謝你的提問。

John Kilchowski, Wells Fargo.

約翰‧基爾喬夫斯基，富國銀行。

Hi. Thank you. Just one on the transaction market. It feels like you're competing on your own with some of these deals. Could you talk about what you're seeing in the way of capital flows and when you expect competition to start to pick up? Just trying to understand the likelihood of you being able to maintain the sort of cadence on investment activity.

你好。謝謝。交易市場只有一張。感覺就像你在獨自與其中一些交易競爭。您能談談您對資本流動的看法以及您預期競爭何時開始加劇嗎？只是想了解您能夠保持投資活動節奏的可能性。

Let me start and Nikhil, you jump in. First, we're not trying to maintain the level of activity. I have said this before, our company is not designed to buy stuff. We're not a bunch of deal junkies. We're trying to invest capital to further strengthening our market position and drive our share earnings and cash flow growth.

讓我開始，尼基爾，你插話吧。我以前說過，我們公司不是為了買東西而設計的。我們不是一群交易迷。我們正在努力投資資本以進一步加強我們的市場地位並推動我們的股票收益和現金流成長。

So if the market opportunity is there, we'll do it. If the market opportunity is not there, we'll not do it. If we believe the market prices have gone to a level where we -- somebody is willing to pay more for assets than what we are willing to pay for, we'll sell, like you have seen pre-COVID, we have to sell $15 billion of asset.

因此，如果市場機會存在，我們就會這麼做。如果沒有市場機會，我們就不會做。如果我們相信市場價格已經達到我們願意支付的價格高於我們願意支付的資產的水平，我們就會出售，就像你在新冠疫情之前看到的那樣，我們必須出售 15 美元億資產。

The focus is on value creation on a partial basis for existing shareholders. Having said that, if you have 94%, for example, in this quarter and number stays around that, up or down, a couple of points every quarter, 94% of what you buy is a privately negotiated bilateral transaction.

重點是為現有股東創造部分價值。話雖如此，例如，如果您在本季度有 94% 的交易，並且數字保持在該水平附近，每個季度上升或下降幾個百分點，那麼您購買的 94% 是私下協商的雙邊交易。

So you have to compete with one person in that situation, that is yourselves if it gets in your head what your cost of capital is. Our cost of capital is much higher than you guys believe, purely because we believe our normalized earnings is much higher. So we are not trying to do a cost of capital gain on a spot basis.

因此，在這種情況下，你必須與一個人競爭，那就是你自己，如果你的腦海中浮現出你的資本成本是多少。我們的資本成本比你們想像的要高得多，純粹是因為我們相信我們的正常化收益要高得多。因此，我們並不是試圖即時計算資本利得成本。

We're trying to think what a long-term return from our individual stock is for existing owners and trying to make a decision by expanding the partnership, which is buying something, are we increasing the growth rate and terminal value for existing owners who are our investment partners today. That's how we make capital allocation decisions.

我們正在努力思考我們個股對現有所有者的長期回報是多少，並試圖透過擴大合作夥伴關係（即購買一些東西）來做出決定，我們是否會提高現有所有者的成長率和最終價值？我們今天的投資夥伴。這就是我們做出資本配置決策的方式。

Richard Anderson, Wedbush.

理查德·安德森，韋德布希。

Thanks. And it's a perfect segue to my question. so far this year, you've grown the portfolio by 7%, $6 billion to $90 billion of an enterprise value. You've grown FFO guidance by 7%. That's probably coincidence. But I noticed that $0.045 of the $0.13 this quarter was attributable to external investing.

謝謝。這是我的問題的完美延續。今年到目前為止，您的投資組合成長了 7%，企業價值達到 60 億美元至 900 億美元。您已將 FFO 指導提高了 7%。這或許就是巧合吧。但我注意到本季 0.13 美元中的 0.045 美元來自外部投資。

So of that, how much of that was driven by the -- this sort of spread investing phenomenon of a 7% yield and your low cost of capital? How much of that was previous year outperforming to your point, better growth profile of the company? You did $5.9 billion last year to $7.1 billion yield. I imagine that's a higher yield today. So is the $0.45 purely from activity this year or outperformance from previous years? Thanks.

那麼，其中有多少是由這種 7% 收益率的價差投資現象和較低的資本成本所推動的？其中有多少是去年的表現優於您的觀點，即公司的成長狀況較好？去年你做了 59 億美元，殖利率 71 億美元。我想今天的產量會更高。那麼 0.45 美元是純粹來自今年的活動還是優於往年的表現？謝謝。

Thanks, Rich. I Would just note that $0.045 is capital activity, right? So that's how we're financing things, and that's also what we're acquiring. And the bucketing as represented incremental changes in guidance. So that is all from incremental capital activity since we last provided guidance.

謝謝，里奇。我只想指出 0.045 美元是資本活動，對嗎？這就是我們融資的方式，也是我們收購的方式。分桶代表了指導的增量變化。因此，這全部來自我們上次提供指導以來的增量資本活動。

The movement in our kind of senior housing or outpatient or triple net, that will be like fundamental performance. And so things we acquired last year. Outperforming underwriting are showing up in kind of fundamentals, whereas when I get the guide and talk about capital activity, it's really just incremental from the last time we updated you, what's being driven by the new acquisitions, the timing of acquisitions and the way we finance.

我們的老年住房、門診或三重網絡的變化，就像基本表現一樣。我們去年購買的東西也是如此。表現出色的承保表現在基本面方面，而當我獲得指南並談論資本活動時，這實際上只是自上次我們向您更新情況以來的增量，新收購的推動因素，收購的時機以及我們的方式金融。

It's an extortion question, Rich, because if you think about the activity, which is obviously what we talk about quarter-to-quarter, but what impacts your number is when you close, and majority of the closings are obviously happening in Q3 and Q4.

Rich，這是一個勒索問題，因為如果你考慮一下活動，這顯然是我們每個季度談論的，但影響你的數字的是你關閉的時間，而大多數關閉顯然發生在第三季度和第四季度。

So the impact of that closing, you're not going to entirely feel this year that you're going to feel it next year. Especially with the focus on growth, we are growth investors. We're not -- I've seen enough companies have been destroyed chasing yields. You can be assured that that's not what we're doing.

因此，關閉的影響，你今年不會完全感覺到明年也會感受到。尤其是在關注成長的情況下，我們是成長型投資者。我們不是——我已經看到足夠多的公司因追逐收益而被摧毀。您可以放心，這不是我們正在做的事情。

So, a, you have a timing issue of obviously how that flows to the number; and b, assuming that we are actually buying what we're telling you buying, which is growth, your impact on a move-forward basis will be higher. So it's a really, really good question.

所以，a，你顯然有一個時間問題，就是如何流向數字； b，假設我們實際上購買的是我們告訴您購買的東西，即成長，那麼您對未來的影響將會更大。所以這是一個非常非常好的問題。

Wes Golladay, Baird.

韋斯·戈拉戴，貝爾德。

Hey. Good morning, everyone. Can you answer what segments are driving the occupancy gains? Is it at adult independent assisted living and any potential mix headwind on rate next year and potential export benefit?

嘿。大家早安。您能否回答哪些細分市場正在推動入住率成長？是在成人獨立輔助生活方面，還是明年利率和潛在出口效益方面有任何潛在的混合阻力？

It's been across the board given the wellness housing portfolio is extremely highly occupied. You should assume that, that's a drag on growth and majority of the growth that's flowing through our number, overall, is coming from assisted living and independent living.

鑑於健康住房組合的佔用率極高，這是全面的。你應該假設，這會拖累經濟成長，整體而言，我們的人口成長大部分來自輔助生活和獨立生活。

Our next question --

我們的下一個問題——

Sorry, on the export question -- let me finish the question. And on the export side, I go back to and focus on what John said on his prepared remarks, it seems like labor cost is moving in our direction. We have no sensor, we can give you right now what that may or may not be for next year. But directionally, it's in moving in that direction. Thank you.

抱歉，關於出口問題——讓我來完成這個問題。在出口方面，我回顧約翰在他準備好的演講中所說的話，看來勞動成本正在朝著我們的方向發展。我們沒有感測器，我們現在可以向您提供明年可能會或可能不會的資訊。但從方向上來說，是朝著那個方向前進。謝謝。

James Kammert, Evercore.

詹姆斯·卡默特，Evercore。

Good morning. Thank you. Looking at the SHOP portfolio, obviously, the same-store portfolio exhibits a little bit higher occupancy and margin. versus the bottle, implying obviously nonsame-store a little lower. Is there a reasonable expectation on cadence as to how fast the total portfolio sort of catches up to same store, if you will, in terms of occupancy in margins? Is it two to three quarters as you apply your operating platform? Or is that too short, too soon?

早安.謝謝。從店家組合來看，顯然，同店組合的入住率和利潤率略高。與瓶子相比，這顯然意味著非同一家商店的價格要低一些。如果你願意的話，就利潤率的佔用率而言，是否對總投資組合趕上同一家商店的節奏有合理的預期？你應用你的操作平台是二到三季嗎？還是時間太短、太快？

Let me take the first part, and maybe Tim, you can provide some guidance on how certain non-same store flows into same-store. But frankly speaking, Jim, we don't really care about same-store, nonsame-store all we care about is bottom line FFO growth. But there is no cushion that the non-same store given its lower occupancy will be growing faster.

讓我來談談第一部分，也許蒂姆，你可以提供一些關於某些非同一商店如何流入同一商店的指導。但坦白說，吉姆，我們並不真正關心同店、非同店，我們關心的是底線 FFO 成長。但由於入住​​率較低，不同商店的成長速度不會更快。

And that's a function of remember what I said on the last call that we're buying assets, and I think Nikhil mentioned this as well, that are lower than market occupancy, right? We're buying -- I think I gave a bunch of examples last quarter, when the [Achilles] is buying assets that are 40%, 50%, 60% occupied, right? That's a drag to our earnings today, but that gets you to a higher earnings tomorrow and get you a better growth.

這是記住我在上次電話會議上所說的我們正在購買資產的一個功能，我認為 Nikhil 也提到了這一點，這些資產低於市場佔有率，對嗎？我們正在購買——我想我上個季度舉了很多例子，當時[阿喀琉斯]正在購買已被佔用 40%、50%、60% 的資產，對吧？這對我們今天的收入造成了拖累，但這會讓你明天獲得更高的收入，並讓你實現更好的成長。

Yeah, just to add Jim to that. So that portfolio. I think that total portfolio is probably the biggest difference is you've got deliveries on the development side to preopening costs plus just general network capital drags and anything delivered.

是的，只是將吉姆添加到其中。所以這個投資組合。我認為總投資組合可能是最大的區別是你已經在開發方面交付了預開業成本加上一般網路資本拖累和交付的任何東西。

And we're in a bit of a heavy period of deliveries. So that causes some change generally, though, when you think about kind of the difference between the same-store and the total portfolio, the mix is relatively similar. So over time, you should see those margins converge.

我們正處於交貨高峰期。因此，這通常會導致一些變化，但是，當您考慮同店和總投資組合之間的差異時，混合是相對相似的。因此，隨著時間的推移，您應該會看到這些利潤趨於一致。

Mike Mueller, JPMorgan.

麥克·穆勒，摩根大通。

Yeah. Hi. In terms of the tech rollout, can you give us a sense as to what you think the annualized margin improvement could be at the property level based on what you've rolled out just so far?

是的。你好。在科技推出方面，您能否告訴我們，根據您迄今為止推出的技術，您認為房地產層面的年化利潤率可能會提高多少？

Mike, we're not going to get on a call and try to speculate what our margin improvement would be. We will tell you that focusing on what we said before, which is we believe that we're going to get this platform at a higher level of margins than pre-COVID.

麥克，我們不會接聽電話並嘗試推測我們的利潤率會提高多少。我們會告訴你，重點是我們之前所說的，我們相信我們將使這個平台的利潤率高於新冠疫情之前的水平。

And that is due to a function of what nwe platform is taking us, where we think the property platform initiative will take the occupancy to it's just an inappropriate sort of a venue to try to speculate what will happen in the future. But we're optimistic we'll get to better place in the future than it was in the past.

這是由於 NWE 平台正在為我們帶來的功能，我們認為房地產平台計劃將把佔用率帶到這只是一個不合適的場所來嘗試推測未來會發生什麼。但我們樂觀地認為，未來我們會取得比過去更好的成績。

Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

Omotayo Okusanya，德意志銀行。

Yes. Good morning, everyone. Great quarter, great outlook. In regards to the SHOP portfolio, again, of late, you have been entering some portfolios from Triple-Net to (inaudible) to SHOP. Obviously, it is kind of improving or increasing the overall growth profile of the company as you kind of get more [exclusive] to the SHOP. I guess also just kind of given what you're seeing in regards to demand-supply fundamentals on how you expect senior housing to roll over time.

是的。大家早安。偉大的季度，美好的前景。關於 SHOP 投資組合，最近，您再次輸入了從 Triple-Net 到（聽不清楚）到 SHOP 的一些投資組合。顯然，隨著您在商店中獲得更多[獨家]，這會改善或提高公司的整體成長狀況。我想這也只是考慮到您所看到的供需基本面以及您期望高級住房如何隨時間推移而滾動的情況。

Should we still be expecting that the SHOP portfolio could be even a good percentage of your NOI going forward? Or at a certain point, do you talk it up again, well, the downside when you do have supply or when fundamentals get softer suggests that maybe the optimal exposure is some percentage of NOI to SHOP.

我們是否也應該期待 SHOP 投資組合在未來的 NOI 中佔據很大比例？或者在某個時刻，你是否會再次談論它，好吧，當你確實有供應或基本面變得疲軟時，下行趨勢表明，也許最佳的敞口是一定比例的 NOI 到 SHOP。

Very good question. I'll point out to you, let me ask -- answer the easiest question you asked, which is would SHOP continue to grow as a percent of the overall portfolio, answer is a resounding yes. As you see that our SHOP portfolio is obviously low occupied, majority of the margin flow through is just starting to come. If you just think through what that means, even if we don't buy another asset, we will get to a much higher place than were you today. So just think through that from a portfolio composition from where it exists today.

非常好的問題。我會向你指出，讓我問——回答你問的最簡單的問題，即商店在整體投資組合中所佔的百分比是否會繼續增長，答案是肯定的。正如您所看到的，我們的 SHOP 投資組合的佔用率明顯較低，大部分利潤流才剛開始出現。如果你仔細想想這意味著什麼，即使我們不購買其他資產，我們也會達到比你今天更高的水平。因此，請從目前存在的投資組合構成中思考這一點。

And obviously, you can see that's what we are buying mostly. The second question is even a more important one as we think about long-term portfolio management. I would recommend that you go back and read the letter to future shareholders that I wrote a few years ago. It's on the Investors section of our website, where we focused on really on this topic, on what our true belief that is volatility is not risk, right? You're talking about, okay, what happens in a year or two -- [or whatever] you might get a downside volatility of owning equity versus debt.

顯然，你可以看到這就是我們主要購買的東西。當我們考慮長期投資組合管理時，第二個問題甚至更為重要。我建議您回去閱讀我幾年前寫給未來股東的信。在我們網站的投資者部分，我們真正關注這個主題，我們真正相信波動性不是風險，對嗎？你說的是，好吧，一兩年後會發生什麼事——[或其他]你可能會遇到擁有股權與債務的下行波動。

The answer to your question is, I'm okay with that. That's what we have a balance sheet for, to adjust for that risk. Just remember, volatility in our opinion is not risk. The probability of losing permanent capital in our opinion, is risk. So you are asking a question that is near and dear to my heart. I wrote a lot about this topic. I think you will get a kick out of reading that the end section of the letter just focusing on this topic.

你的問題的答案是，我同意。這就是我們的資產負債表的目的，以調整風險。請記住，我們認為波動不是風險。我們認為，失去永久資本的可能性就是風險。所以你問的是一個我很關心的問題。我寫了很多關於這個主題的文章。我想你會在閱讀這封信的最後部分重點關注這個主題時感到高興。

We have no further questions at this time. This will conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。