Webster Financial Corp (WBS) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Please standby for live streaming

直播請耐心等待

Good morning. Welcome to the Webster Financial Third Quarter 2024 earnings call. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to introduce Webster's Director of Investor Relations, Emlen Harmon, to introduce the call. Mr. Harmon, please go ahead.

早安. 歡迎參加韋伯斯特金融 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 請注意，此事件正在被記錄。 現在我想請韋伯斯特投資者關係總監 Emlen Harmon 介紹這次電話會議。 哈蒙先生，請繼續。

Good morning. Before we begin our remarks, I want to remind you that the comments made by management may include forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and are subject to the Safe Harbor rules.

早安. 在我們開始發言之前，我想提醒您，管理層發表的評論可能包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述，並受到安全港規則的約束。

Please review the forward-looking disclaimer and safe harbor language in today's press release and presentation for more information about risks and uncertainties which may affect us. The presentation accompanying management's remarks can be found on the company's Investor Relations site at investors dot Webster, bank.com for the Q&A portion of the call, we ask that each participant ask just one question and one follow-up prior to the for returning to the queue. I will now turn it over to Webster Financial CEO and Chairman, John Ciulla.

請查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中的前瞻性免責聲明和安全港語言，以了解有關可能影響我們的風險和不確定性的更多資訊。 管理層講話的簡報可以在公司的投資者關係網站投資者網韋伯斯特(investor dot Webster)、bank.com 上找到，以了解電話會議的問答部分，我們要求每位參與者在返回之前僅提出一個問題和一個後續行動隊列。 現在我將把它交給韋伯斯特金融公司執行長兼董事長約翰·丘拉 (John Ciulla)。

Thanks, gentlemen. Good morning, and welcome to Webster Financial Corporation's Third Quarter 2024 earnings call. We appreciate you joining us this morning. Very pleased to welcome Neil Holland as he is joining his first earnings call as well through CFO.

謝謝，先生們。 早安，歡迎參加韋伯斯特金融公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 我們感謝您今天早上加入我們。 非常高興歡迎 Neil Holland，他也將透過財務長參加他的第一次財報電話會議。

As we anticipated, Neil has hit the ground running since he officially stepped into the role in mid August, and you can already see the impact of some of the steps is team has taken to optimize the positioning of our balance sheet and grow interest income this quarter. Luis mass Y-on-Y, Webster's President and Chief Operating Officer, is also joining us for the Q&A portion of the call today, I'll provide remarks on our high-level results and operations before turning it over to Neil to cover our financial results in greater detail, we're really pleased with our strategic and tactical accomplishments in the quarter.

As we anticipated, Neil has hit the ground running since he officially stepped into the role in mid August, and you can already see the impact of some of the steps is team has taken to optimize the positioning of our balance sheet and grow interest income this四分之一. 韋伯斯特總裁兼營運長Luis Mass Y-on-Y 也參加了我們今天電話會議的問答部分，我將就我們的高水準業績和營運發表評論，然後將其交給尼爾來報道我們的情況。

I'll hit the highlights and Neil will provide more details. We grew deposits 3.6% in the quarter, including growth in DDA, overall, commercial deposits and Asia setting. We grew loans 0.7% in the quarter, consistent with our full year growth expectations.

我將重點介紹，尼爾將提供更多細節。 本季我們的存款成長了 3.6%，包括 DDA、整體、商業存款和亞洲環境的成長。 本季我們的貸款成長了 0.7%，與我們全年的成長預期一致。

Excluding a 300 million securitization, we performed to reduce our Cree concentration. Our growth was 1.3% in the quarter with accelerating growth in C&I categories. We further reduced our Creek concentration through payoffs and reclassification of certain healthcare related loans.

排除3億美元的證券化，我們減少了Cree的集中度。 隨著工商業類別的加速成長，我們本季的成長率為 1.3%。 我們透過償還某些醫療保健相關貸款並重新分類，進一步降低了 Creek 的集中度。

As a result, our creative standing as a percentage of Tier one capital and reserves declined from 285% to approximately 265% at the end of Q3. Our net interest income grew quarter over quarter and increased over last year's comparable period. In line with our full year expectations.

結果，我們的創意地位佔一級資本和儲備的百分比從 285% 下降到第三季末的約 265%。 我們的淨利息收入較上季成長，並且比去年同期有所增加。 符合我們全年的預期。

We benefited from asset growth and a balance sheet repositioning. We continue to mitigate our asset sensitivity, positioning us well as rates continue to come down. Our capital levels remained strong with our CT1 now in excess of our current operating target of 11%, resulting from earnings and capital optimization activities from U.S. capital flow mixability in 4Q and beyond.

我們受益於資產成長和資產負債表重新定位。 我們繼續降低資產敏感性，使我們在利率持續下降的情況下保持良好的定位。 由於第四季及以後美國資本流動混合性的收益和資本優化活動，我們的資本水準仍然強勁，CT1 目前超過了 11% 的當前營運目標。

Expenses remained well managed, resulting in the third quarter efficiency ratio of 45%, still in an industry leading position. I'll now turn to our financial performance for the quarter. Beginning on slide 2. On an adjusted basis.

費用管理依然良好，導致第三季效率達到45%，仍處於業界領先地位。 我現在將談談我們本季的財務表現。 從投影片 2 開始。

For the quarter, we generated a return on average assets of 1.22% and a return on tangible common equity of 17.3%. Our adjusted EPS was $1.30 for our profitability and return metrics remain favorable to peers. Again this quarter. At this point, most of you are familiar with Slide 3, which illustrates our diverse and versatile deposit base.

本季度，我們的平均資產報酬率為 1.22%，有形普通股報酬率為 17.3%。 我們的調整後每股收益為 1.30 美元，因為我們的獲利能力和回報指標仍然有利於同業。 本季又來了。 至此，大多數人都熟悉投影片 3，它說明了我們多樣化和多功能的存款基礎。

As I mentioned upfront, our robust growth this period came from a breadth of the segments on the slide, including lower cost channels in our commercial bank, HSA Bank and a metros. We executed on $400 million deposit opportunity for HSA Bank. We discussed last quarter, which provided a nice boost to deposits. Their strong execution to within the Commercial Bank added to lower cost funding growth as well.

正如我之前提到的，我們這段時期的強勁成長來自於各個細分市場的下滑，包括我們的商業銀行、HSA 銀行和地鐵的低成本管道。 我們為 HSA 銀行執行了 4 億美元的存款機會。 我們討論了上個季度，該季度為存款提供了良好的成長。 他們在商業銀行內部的強大執行力也降低了融資成本的成長。

Our ability to generate low cost funding across a number of business segments continues to be a tremendous advantage in growing our balance sheet efficiently and profitably.

我們在多個業務部門籌集低成本資金的能力仍然是我們高效、盈利地成長資產負債表的巨大優勢。

Moving to slide 4, I will review our commercial real estate portfolio is that had been a continued focus of investors segment of the credit portfolio on which we have been most focused continues to be traditional office portfolio balance continues to shrink with $917 million in outstandings at quarter end, down roughly 45% from the first half of 2022.

轉向投影片 4，我將回顧我們的商業房地產投資組合，這是投資者持續關注的信貸投資組合部分，我們最關注的仍然是傳統的辦公室投資組合餘額繼續萎縮，未償餘額為 9.17 億美元季度末，較2022 年上半年下降約45%。

We did see some continued negative migration this quarter with non-accrual loans increasing to 14% from 9% last quarter. Largely as a result of two larger credits. We continue to be proactive in identifying and managing problem credits and prudently managing reserves in the sector.

本季我們確實看到一些持續的負遷移，非應計貸款從上個季度的 9% 增加到 14%。 很大程度上是由於兩個較大的學分的結果。 我們繼續積極主動地識別和管理問題信貸，並審慎管理該行業的儲備。

While it has been an investor focus, there have been no significant changes in the quality of our rent-regulated multifamily portfolio, where credit performance has held up consistently well on credit more generally, we continue to see negative risk rating migration in the quarter as we keep a close eye on credit at a later stage in the cycle, we did see our nonaccrual loans increased by 50 million this quarter, primarily driven by the aforementioned office portfolio migration outside of Cree office.

雖然這一直是投資者關注的焦點，但我們受租金管制的多戶住宅投資組合的品質沒有發生重大變化，其中信用表現在總體上一直保持良好，但我們仍然看到本季度出現負風險評級遷移，因為我們在周期的後期密切關注信貸，我們確實看到本季度我們的非應計貸款增加了 5000 萬筆，這主要是由上述 Cree 辦公室以外的辦公室投資組合遷移推動的。

Negative migration was generally credit specific across the portfolio and not driven by one industry sector or asset class or the healthcare related portfolios. We continue to show some weakness while we have seen continued migration and will continue to be proactive in our risk reviews, our realization of loan losses remains in the range we have observed in recent quarters and importantly is consistent with through the cycles and pre-pandemic commercial annualized charge-off rates. With that, I'll turn it over to Neil to cover our financials in more detail.

負遷移通常是整個投資組合中特定的信貸，而不是由某一產業部門或資產類別或醫療保健相關投資組合所驅動的。 我們繼續表現出一些弱點，同時我們看到持續的遷移，並將繼續積極主動地進行風險審查，我們的貸款損失實現仍處於我們最近幾個季度觀察到的範圍內，重要的是與整個週期和疫情前的情況一致商業年化沖銷率。 這樣，我會將其交給尼爾，以更詳細地介紹我們的財務狀況。

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。

I'll start on Slide 5 with our GAAP and adjusted earnings for the quarter. On an adjusted basis, we reported net income in the economy and the EPS of $1.34. Let's consider that a pretax 20 million securities repositioning charge at $16 million impact from the exit of non-core banking operation and a $22 million of strategic restructuring costs.

我將從投影片 5 開始介紹我們的 GAAP 和本季調整後的收益。 在調整後的基礎上，我們報告經濟中的淨利潤和每股收益為 1.34 美元。 讓我們考慮一下非核心銀行業務退出所產生的 1,600 萬美元的稅前 2,000 萬美元證券重新定位費用和 2,200 萬美元的策略重組成本。

Turning to Slide 6. Total assets were $79 million at period end at 2.6 and the second quarter mirrored by robust deposit growth of $2.2 billion. Deposit growth was aided by a seasonal surge in public funds of $1.1 billion. As a result of the substantial deposit growth, we are holding higher cash balances than we had historically. We also had solid loan growth of 1.3%.

轉向投影片 6。 公共資金季節性激增 11 億美元，推動了存款成長。 由於存款大幅成長，我們持有的現金餘額高於歷史水準。 我們的貸款也實現了 1.3% 的穩健成長。

Excluding the securitization, the loan to deposit ratio was 80.5%. Tangible book value increased to $33 and $0.26 per common share for the increase from the prior quarter, driven by retained earnings and positive movement in AOCI due to the low rate environment, capital levels improve significantly.

剔除證券化後，貸存比率為80.5%。 有形帳面價值較上一季增加至 33 美元，每股普通股增加 0.26 美元，這得益於低利率環境下留存收益和 AOCI 的積極變動，資本水準顯著改善。

The common equity Tier one ratio was 11.2% to 3% at 64 basis points linked quarter, and our tangible common equity ratio was 7.48% and additional to edge and our capital generation. The TCE ratio benefited from the improvement. And as you, yes, the common equity Tier one ratio also benefited from several actions we undertook to optimize asset risk weighting as well as the securitization. In total, these actions added 44 basis points to our common equity Tier one ratio.

普通股一級比率為 11.2% 至 3%（按季度計算 64 個基點），我們的有形普通股比率為 7.48%，此外還有優勢和我們的資本生成。 TCE比率受益於改善。 正如您一樣，是的，普通股一級比率也受益於我們為優化資產風險權重以及證券化而採取的多項行動。 總的來說，這些行動使我們的普通股一級資本比率增加了 44 個基點。

Lower trends are highlighted on Slide 7. Total loans were up 374 million or 0.7% linked quarter, excluding CRE, other loan categories grew by 3.2% this quarter, commercial real estate balances were down 570 million as we experienced a natural attrition in addition to the securitization. This accelerates our path to our targeted 250% of capital plus reserves, securitization, freight capacity and add and allows us to add commercial real estate relationships, attractive risk reward characteristics. Field on the portfolio was flat given the mix of new loan originations and repricing of floating rate loans. On the September benefits, we provide additional detail on deposits.

投影片7 突顯了較低的趨勢。我們經歷了自然減員證券化。 這加速了我們實現 250% 資本加儲備、證券化、貨運能力的目標，並增加了商業房地產關係、有吸引力的風險回報特徵。 考慮到新貸款發放和浮動利率貸款重新定價的組合，投資組合領域持平。 關於 9 月份的福利，我們提供了有關存款的更多詳細資訊。

On Slide 8, we grew total deposits by $2.2 billion with diverse growth that cuts across categories. That pace will accelerate this quarter due to seasonal inflows of public deposits into discrete opportunity with an HSA Bank that added $400 million of low cost deposits. DDA balances increased by over $700 million this quarter with a majority of the increase coming from seasonal effects. However, it is still encouraging to see normalization of the DDA balances after several quarters of declines. Moving to Slide 9. Net interest income was up $18 million from the prior quarter, driven by balance sheet growth and higher earning asset yields. Adjusted noninterest income was up $1 million.

在投影片 8 中，我們的總存款增加了 22 億美元，成長方式跨類別。 由於公共存款季節性流入 HSA 銀行的離散機會，該銀行增加了 4 億美元的低成本存款，本季這一速度將加快。 本季 DDA 餘額增加了 7 億多美元，其中大部分成長來自季節性影響。 然而，在經歷了幾個季度的下降之後，DDA 餘額的正常化仍然令人鼓舞。 轉向投影片 9。 調整後的非利息收入增加了 100 萬美元。

Adjusted expenses were up 2 million and the provision decreased by $5 million. Excluding adjustments, our tax rate was 22.2%. Overall, adjusted net income was up $14 million. Relative to the prior quarter, our efficiency ratio was 45%.

調整後費用增加 200 萬美元，撥備減少 500 萬美元。 排除調整後，我們的稅率為 22.2%。 總體而言，調整後淨利潤增加了 1,400 萬美元。 與上一季相比，我們的效率率為 45%。

On Slide 10, we highlight net interest income, which increased $18 million or 3.1% linked quarter, driven by balancing growth and the increased earning asset yield. The net interest margin was up four basis points to three basis points.

在投影片 10 中，我們重點介紹了淨利息收入，在平衡成長和獲利資產收益率增加的推動下，淨利息收入增加了 1,800 萬美元，環比成長了 3.1%。 淨利差上升四個基點至三個基點。

Our yield on earning assets increased four basis points over the prior quarter, with loan yields flat and the securities portfolio of 24 basis points. And the third quarter, we incrementally sold securities with a book value of 304 million and reinvested with an approximate 400 basis point improvement in yields.

我們的生息資產收益率比上一季增加了 4 個基點，貸款收益率持平，證券投資組合上升 24 個基點。 第三季度，我們增量出售了帳面價值為 3.04 億美元的證券，並進行了再投資，收益率提高了約 400 個基點。

With minimal impact to capital ratios, w e anticipate an earnback of less than two years on that we were able to manner to maintain our total deposit cost effectively flat for the quarter. Slide 11 illustrates the progress we've made in mitigating its asset sensitivity over the past three years by increasing the duration of our assets and reducing the duration of our liabilities on slide 12 is not interested enough, which was up $1 million versus prior quarter.

由於對資本比率的影響極小，我們預計在本季能夠有效維持總存款成本持平的情況下，我們將獲得不到兩年的獲利回報。 投影片11 說明了我們在過去三年中透過增加資產久期和減少負債久期在降低資產敏感性方面取得的進展，投影片12 的興趣還不夠，與上一季相比增加了100 萬美元。

On an adjusted basis, adjusted income included both a 3.8 million negative CVA and $4.4 million gain on the securitization. We continued to experience pressure on core fee growth year over year. These are up $3 million, including the impact of the major U.S. acquisition, offset by year-over-year changes and CVA.

在調整後的基礎上，調整後的收入包括 380 萬負 CVA 和 440 萬美元的證券化收益。 我們持續面臨核心費用逐年成長的壓力。 增加了 300 萬美元，其中包括美國重大收購的影響，但被同比變化和 CVA 所抵消。

Noninterest expense is up. Slide 13. We reported adjusted expenses of $320 million, up 2 million for the prior quarter, driven by modest increases in technology, human capital and occupancy costs. Slide 14 details components of our allowance for credit losses, which was up $19 million relative to the prior quarter. After booking 35 million and net charge offs, we recorded 54 million provision, primarily due to credit factors. As a result, our allowance coverage to loans increased to 132 basis points from 130 basis points last quarter. Slide 15 highlights our key asset quality metrics.

非利息支出上升。 投影片 13。 我們報告調整後費用為 3.2 億美元，比上一季增加 200 萬美元，原因是技術、人力資本和占用成本小幅成長。 投影片 14 詳細介紹了我們的信貸損失準備金的組成部分，該準備金較上一季增加了 1,900 萬美元。 在預訂 3500 萬美元和淨沖銷後，我們記錄了 5400 萬美元的撥備，主要是由於信用因素。 因此，我們的貸款準備金覆蓋率從上季的 130 個基點增加到 132 個基點。 投影片 15 重點介紹了我們的關鍵資產品質指標。

As you can see on the four charts, we saw continued migration in the quarter. Net charge-offs came in at 36 million versus 33 million in the prior quarter. On slide 16, we enhanced our already strong capital levels. As we noted previously, we took several actions to improve our capital ratios in the quarter, including reviewing the risk weighting of our multi-family lender, finance and public sector portfolios as well as the securitization of multifamily loans.

正如您在四個圖表中看到的那樣，我們在本季度看到了持續的遷移。 淨沖銷額為 3,600 萬美元，而上一季為 3,300 萬美元。 在投影片 16 中，我們增強了本已雄厚的資本水準。 正如我們先前指出的，我們在本季度採取了多項行動來提高資本比率，包括審查多戶貸款機構、金融和公共部門投資組合的風險權重以及多戶貸款的證券化。

These actions in combination with organic capital generation and lower ASCI. losses led to a significant increase in our capital ratios this quarter. I'll wrap up my comments on slide 17 with our outlets.

這些行動與有機資本產生和較低的 ASCI 結合。虧損導致本季我們的資本比率大幅上升。 我將在投影片 17 上總結我對我們媒體的評論。

In the fourth quarter, we expect loans to grow by 1% to 1.5%, with growth across a diverse categories, including the potential for some modest growth in commercial real estate, we are anticipating deposits will decline by around 1% as seasonality in the public funds business leads the outflows.

第四季度，我們預計貸款將成長 1% 至 1.5%，成長涉及多個類別，包括商業房地產可能出現小幅成長，我們預計存款將因季節性因素而下降 1% 左右。流出。

We expect net interest income in the range of 590 to 600 million on a non-FTE basis. This is within the guidance range we provided on the second quarter earnings call. Our net interest income outlook assumes 50 basis points of cuts in the first fourth quarter with 25 basis points each in November and December. Adjusted noninterest income will be 85 to 90 million.

我們預計非 FTE 基礎上的淨利息收入將在 590 至 6 億之間。 這在我們在第二季財報電話會議上提供的指導範圍內。 我們的淨利息收入展望假設第四季削減 50 個基點，其中 11 月和 12 月各削減 25 個基點。 調整後的非利息收入將為85至9000萬。

We anticipate adjusted expenses will be in the range of 335 million with an efficiency ratio in the mid 40s. Our near term Common Equity Tier one ratio remains 11%. With that, I'll turn it back to John for closing remarks.

我們預計調整後的費用將在 3.35 億美元左右，效率比率在 40 左右。 我們的短期普通股一級資本比率仍為 11%。 說到這裡，我將把它轉回給約翰致結束語。

Thanks, Neil. I'm anticipating will receive questions on our priorities for capital allocation, given the sharp increase in our capital ratios in the quarter, while we continue to prioritize funding organic balance sheet growth and complementary tuck-in acquisitions, our capacity to return capital to shareholders has increased since the second quarter, and we will be prudent and proactive managers of capital. We are well positioned to maintain our profitability profile.

謝謝，尼爾。 鑑於本季度我們的資本比率急劇上升，我預計將收到有關我們資本配置優先事項的問題，同時我們繼續優先考慮為有機資產負債表增長和補充性收購提供資金，以及我們向股東返還資本的能力第二季以來有所增加，我們將謹慎、積極地管理資本。 我們有能力維持我們的獲利能力。

As Neil details, we have proactively managed our balance sheet over the past year to ensure stable net interest income in a declining interest rate environment, both in terms of managing our funding costs and tweaking the profile of our earnings assets. We have capacity and capability to grow our balance sheet via the diversified mix of loan and deposit categories. While at the same thing in our efficiency ratio remains among the best of our peers, we have retained superior profitability even as we invest in people, processes and technology.

正如尼爾詳細介紹的那樣，我們在過去一年中積極管理我們的資產負債表，以確保在利率下降的環境下保持穩定的淨利息收入，無論是在管理我們的融資成本還是調整我們的收益資產狀況方面。 我們有能力透過貸款和存款類別的多元化組合來擴大資產負債表。 同時，我們的效率仍然在同行中名列前茅，即使我們在人員、流程和技術方面進行投資，我們仍然保持著卓越的盈利能力。

Over the last 24 months, we have made significant investments to strengthen our technology foundation, including the modernization of our core banking platform, building advanced BSA AML competencies, and heightening our cyber security and cloud capabilities. Finally, I'd like to thank our colleagues for their continued effort. Their hard work is reflected in our performance this quarter, particularly in our strong deposit growth in favorable categories. Thank you again for joining us today. Operator, we will open the line to questions.

在過去 24 個月裡，我們進行了大量投資來加強我們的技術基礎，包括核心銀行平台的現代化、建立先進的 BSA AML 能力以及增強我們的網路安全和雲端能力。 最後，我要感謝我們的同事們的持續努力。 他們的辛勤工作體現在我們本季的業績中，特別是我們有利類別的存款強勁成長。 再次感謝您今天加入我們。 接線員，我們將開通提問線路。

Thank you. If you like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one. Again, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up then rejoin the queue. If needed, please ensure your line is not unusual when called upon. So.

謝謝。 如果您想提問，請按電話鍵盤上的星號一。 如果您想撤回您的問題，只需按星號一即可。 我們再次要求您將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續問題上，然後重新加入隊列。 如果需要，請確保您的線路在被呼叫時沒有異常。 所以。

Our first question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW. Your line is open.

我們的第一個問題來自 KBW 的 Chris McGratty。 您的線路已開通。

Good morning. John and Neill. The actions you took put down for the balance sheet, obviously set up for a better more neutrally positioned the balance sheet going into 25 to how do we think about, I guess, trough NI, Tom, is Q4 the transit. How are you thinking about it, given you've freed up a little bit of space on the balance sheet?

早安. 約翰和尼爾。你為資產負債表採取的行動，顯然是為了更好地、更中立地定位資產負債表進入25，我想，透過NI，湯姆，我們如何看待第四季的轉變。 鑑於您已經釋放了資產負債表上的一點空間，您對此有何看法？

I'm giving you a little bit. Yes. So we came in at three 36 for the quarter on kind of it. As you look at how we exited Q3 were good and they will be a little bit more cash on the balance sheet, which in Q4 will have a slight drag. And then so we're kind of in the Q4, we're going to be in oh three, 32 range in having that exit velocity in the next year.

我給你一點點。 是的。 所以我們本季的成績是 36 分。 正如你所看到的，我們退出第三季的情況很好，他們的資產負債表上會有更多的現金，這在第四季會產生輕微的拖累。 然後我們就進入了第四季度，明年我們將在 3、32 的範圍內達到退出速度。

And then kind of staying right, right in that level into '25 is how we think about net. So we think we're at a stable, then we may be a plus or minus three basis points as we move forward. But that's the range we're looking at going forward. and the '25.

然後在 25 世紀保持正確、正確的水平就是我們對網路的看法。 因此，我們認為我們處於穩定狀態，然後隨著我們的前進，我們可能會增加或減少三個基點。 但這就是我們未來考慮的範圍。和'25。

Okay. Perfect. And then my follow-up, John, you alluded to the capital return flexibility on. Could you maybe just rank order and also the timing of what you think you might be able to return more capital?

好的。 完美的。 然後我的後續行動，約翰，你提到了資本回報彈性。 您能否僅對順序以及您認為可能能夠返還更多資本的時間進行排序？

Yes. I mean, I think we always talk about kind of prioritizing for organic balance sheet growth, thinking about doing things like we've done with iMeet, drove some Interlink and bend. And then obviously, if there's no other productive use of capital, I do think given where we are in fact, we do think with interest rates coming down, that we should see an inflection point in credit as we get into this quarter in the first half of '25 that were more likely to begin repurchases again, absent other organic opportunities to deploy that capital. Chris. So I think we're there.

是的。 我的意思是，我認為我們總是談論優先考慮資產負債表的有機增長，考慮像我們在 iMeet 上所做的那樣，推動一些 Interlink 和彎曲。 顯然，如果沒有其他資本的生產性使用，我確實認為考慮到我們的實際情況，我們確實認為隨著利率的下降，當我們進入本季度的第一季時，我們應該會看到信貸的拐點25年的一半更有可能再次開始回購，因為缺乏其他有機機會來部署該資本。 克里斯. 所以我想我們已經到了。

We feel really good about our capital levels. Now we have some more flexibility. So we're more likely than we were before in the next quarter or two beginning and share repurchases, absent other or other uses of organic deployment.

我們對我們的資本水準感覺非常好。 現在我們有了更多的彈性。 因此，在沒有其他或其他有機部署用途的情況下，我們更有可能在下一兩季開始股票回購。

Perfect. Thank you.

完美的。 謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Karen Short with Barclays. Your line is open.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的凱倫·肖特（Karen Short）。 您的線路已開通。

Hey, good morning, guys. Major. Yes. Looking at looking at maybe loan growth as we as we exit 24 going into the 25, how much additional attrition or headwind should we expect from CRE? It's or sounds like maybe maybe not that much. But then should we expect or anticipate that maybe the overall loan growth rate starts to accelerate as we as we exit the year going into 25?

嘿，早上好，夥計們。 主要的。 是的。 當我們退出 24 世紀進入 25 世紀時，看看貸款的成長情況，我們應該預期 CRE 會帶來多少額外的損失或阻力？它或聽起來可能沒有那麼多。 但是，當我們進入 25 年後，我們是否應該預期或預期整體貸款成長率可能會開始加速？

Yes. I mean, it's a great question, right. Loan growth has clearly been muted for the industry in the last couple of quarters. We did have a really good quarter in many core C&I categories. And I will say that that's sort of pull through as continued early on in this quarter.

是的。 我的意思是，這是一個很好的問題，對吧。 過去幾個季度，該行業的貸款成長明顯放緩。 我們在許多核心 C&I 類別中確實度過了非常好的季度。 我想說的是，正如本季初所持續的那樣，這種情況已經有所緩解。

Although we know that the fourth quarter is also subject to significant prepayments and there's a lot of activity, particularly on transactional Sponsor & Specialty deal. So that's why we didn't really change our guidance for the fourth quarter. I think you've heard me say, and for 10 years or so, we've been able to kind of grow commercial categories in the high single digits to around 10%.

儘管我們知道第四季度也有大量預付款，並且有很多活動，特別是在贊助商和專業交易方面。 這就是為什麼我們沒有真正改變第四季的指導。 我想你已經聽過我說過，在 10 年左右的時間裡，我們已經能夠將商業類別的成長率從高個位數成長到 10% 左右。

I think right now our view of '25 Viger is that we see there is there's continued a kind of modest loan demand. So I think right now, we think about next year as a 5% ish kind of loan growth, we're going to give formal '25 guidance when we get into the January call, um, could we outperform that?

我認為現在我們對 25 Viger 的看法是，我們看到貸款需求持續適度。 所以我認為現在，我們認為明年的貸款成長將達到 5% 左右，當我們進入 1 月的電話會議時，我們將給出正式的 25 年指導，嗯，我們能超越這一目標嗎？

Sure. I think I've always said I think we can kind of perform at or better than whatever the market allows. But I think if you if you read what others are saying and we look kind of activity, I think 25, you know, may not be a blowout year, but be more modest and similar this year. With respect to loan growth, which is with respect to your question about mix and commercial real estate.

當然。 我想我一直說我認為我們的表現可以達到或優於市場允許的水平。 但我認為，如果你讀過其他人的言論，並且我們看起來很活躍，我認為 25 年，你知道，可能不是一個井噴的一年，但今年會更加謙虛和相似。 關於貸款成長，這是關於你關於混合和商業房地產的問題。

And obviously, we're really pleased with this quarter, and I think there's a bit of a template there for us. We had significant organic prepayments, which I know many others in the industry have reported over the last couple of quarters inquiry. And then we did this securitization, which actually was economically beneficial to us in terms of the gain on the transaction.

顯然，我們對本季度非常滿意，我認為我們有一些模板。 我們有大量的有機預付款，我知道業內許多其他人在過去幾季的調查中都報告了這一情況。 然後我們進行了證券化，就交易收益而言，這實際上對我們來說是經濟上有利的。

And we look at that not as just trying to drive down Cree balances as much as we can, but it gives us capacity to support our really good clients in full relationships. We're really good at it. And so, you know, you will see some level of origination there. And then at the end of the day, as we grow our capital base and we grow our other C&I classes, you know, you'll see either flat to modest growth overall in Q3 with our ability to maybe exit nonstrategic Cree Cree relationship. But I think we showed this quarter, we can still grow loans at market while not relying on outsized Cree growth.

我們認為這不僅僅是試圖盡可能地降低 Cree 的餘額，而且它使我們有能力在全面的關係中為真正優秀的客戶提供支援。 我們真的很擅長。 所以，你知道，你會在那裡看到某種程度的起源。 最終，隨著我們資本基礎的擴大以及其他 C&I 類別的發展，您會看到第三季整體成長持平或適度成長，而我們可能有能力退出非策略性的 Cree Cree 關係。 但我認為我們本季表明，我們仍然可以在市場上增加貸款，同時不依賴克里的大幅成長。

That's great color. Thanks, Tom. And then my follow-up on the deposit side. Really good good trends there. Yes, we're entering the enrollment season. What are your thoughts on maybe Asia?

那顏色真棒。 謝謝，湯姆。然後是我在存款方面的後續行動。 那裡的趨勢確實很好。 是的，我們即將進入招生季節。 您對亞洲有何看法？

Yes, A.J., it's Suisse. We feel do you think that there could be some pressures on opportunity? So I'll adjourn. It's Luis. So we do see we've seen a pretty good early indicators that the enrollment season is going to be as good as we've seen no in the recent couple of years. So we've made a fair amount of investments in a bunch of client-facing technology.

是的，A.J.，是瑞士。 我們認為您認為機會可能會受到一些壓力嗎？ 那我就休會了。 是路易斯。 因此，我們確實看到，我們已經看到了相當好的早期跡象，表明招生季節將與近幾年一樣好。 因此，我們在一系列面向客戶的技術上進行了大量投資。

We launched the new investment management platform that you may have seen we rolled out earlier this year. So we feel very good about the investments and how we've positioned the have been continuing to position the exit business. And we think that you're going to see similar to slightly more sort of other growth in 2020 by relative to what we saw this year. So we feel we feel good about rare disease today. And Gerard, as we usually do in January, we'll be able to give you a kind of a first look at it, new business and what we anticipate.

我們推出了新的投資管理平台，您可能已經看到我們在今年稍早推出了該平台。 因此，我們對投資以及我們的定位感到非常滿意，並一直在繼續定位退出業務。 我們認為，與我們今年看到的情況相比，2020 年您將看到類似的稍微更多的其他增長。 所以我們今天對罕見疾病感覺良好。 傑拉德，正如我們通常在一月份所做的那樣，我們將能夠讓您初步了解它、新業務和我們的預期。

And then obviously at the end of the first quarter, we kind of can can final tally what's come in. But but I agree with the lease, I think it was a good selling season for ages ago.

顯然，在第一季末，我們可以最終統計出收入。

Great. Thanks a lot. Thank you.

偉大的。 多謝。 謝謝。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Fitzgibbon with Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

你的下一個問題來自馬克·菲茨吉本（Mark Fitzgibbon）和派珀·桑德勒（Piper Sandler）的台詞。 您的線路已開通。

John, the real deal published an article last week suggesting that you guys have two large office loans in New Jersey that are in default to the tune of about 140 million. I guess I'm wondering, are these on nonaccrual in the third quarter and do you have any specific reserves against them?

約翰，真正的交易上週發表了一篇文章，暗示你們在新澤西州有兩筆大額辦公室貸款違約，金額約為 1.4 億美元。 我想我想知道，這些在第三季是非應計的嗎？

Thanks for the question, Mark on. Yes. So both of those loans and let me make a couple of comments. Obviously with a $52 billion of loan book, we don't generally comment on specific relationships, single-point exposures, litigation and so on and so forth. But obviously, this has become a big public. So what I will tell you is, you know, the highlight numbers. There are significantly overstate Webster's exposure. Those were two loans originated pre-merger. one has a Webster exposure under $45 million. The other one is Webster exposure under $25 million.

謝謝你的提問，馬克。 是的。 那麼這兩筆貸款讓我發表一些評論。 顯然，對於 520 億美元的貸款帳簿，我們通常不會對特定關係、單點風險、訴訟等發表評論。 但顯然，這已經成為了大大眾的關注。 所以我要告訴你的是，你知道，亮點數字。 韋伯斯特的曝光度明顯高估了。 這是合併前產生的兩筆貸款。 其中一名韋氏曝光金額低於 4,500 萬美元。 另一項是韋伯斯特曝光低於 2500 萬美元。

Both of those loans are on nonaccrual at the end of the third quarter. Both of those loans have obviously been reviewed and there have been the appropriate charge-offs and a specific reserve or put against those loans. As I mentioned in my early comments to office loans drove the significant or not that what the increase was in nonperformers in the quarter.

截至第三季末，這兩筆貸款均為非應計貸款。 這兩筆貸款顯然都經過了審查，並且針對這些貸款進行了適當的沖銷和特定準備金或質押。 正如我在早期對辦公貸款的評論中提到的，該季度不良貸款的成長是否顯著。

Those were the two loans, and we took charge-offs that contributed to the overall $36 million charge in the quarter. So on that's that's what I'll tell you. Your office charge-offs were 55% of the charge-offs in our quarter. So you can kind of triangulate from there, but we're pretty good about making sure that we are proactively managing things that things go non-performer when they're supposed to go and taking the charges that were supposed to take.

這是兩筆貸款，我們沖銷了本季 3,600 萬美元的總費用。 這就是我要告訴你的。 您的辦公室沖銷佔本季沖銷的 55%。 所以你可以從那裡進行三角測量，但我們非常擅長確保我們積極主動地管理那些在應該進行時卻表現不佳的事情，並承擔應該承擔的費用。

And so the good thing about being a company our size right now is we've got significant earnings power. We've got a very high loan loss reserve compared to our peer median. And so this quarter really didn't have an impact on our on our overall financial performance. And we feel pretty good that we've got enough reserves in not only those two loans, but in our overall free portfolio that we continue to work down to not have there be a material financial impact as we move forward.

因此，作為目前這樣規模的公司，好處是我們擁有強大的獲利能力。 與同業中位數相比，我們的貸款損失準備金非常高。 因此，本季確實沒有對我們的整體財務表現產生影響。 我們感覺非常好，因為我們不僅在這兩筆貸款中擁有足夠的準備金，而且在我們的整體免費投資組合中也有足夠的準備金，我們將繼續努力，以確保在我們前進的過程中不會產生重大的財務影響。

Sure. And that's great. And then just as a follow-up, John, you guys have done a great job shrinking the office book. I guess I wondered if you could share with us what the reserve on the office portfolio is right now?

當然。 那太好了。 作為後續行動，約翰，你們在縮小辦公簿方面做得非常出色。 我想我想知道您是否可以與我們分享目前辦公室投資組合的儲備是多少？

Yes, I think it's up 6% on Mark, I'll give you again. I'll repeat what I said, Jason meant that talk to me when that the portfolio was $1 billion a quarter or so ago. We talked about there being about a third of that, which is kind of hand-to-hand combat. We're working through these two credits that I've just referenced in that you asked about. We're obviously in that kind of a third of difficult working through. We've got about a third of the portfolio that we don't worry about that's highly leased that have long-dated maturities. And then the stuff in the middle, we continue to kind of judge We actively manage and we think we've got enough secondary and tertiary support as well as in-place leases to kind of work through some. So when you think about 6% on the overall $917 million, that's left, remember, there are some specific reserves as well. And when you think about the reserving, we feel comfortable about it because it's really against that third of the portfolio, that's that's that's most problematic for us.

是的，我認為馬克上漲了 6%，我會再告訴你。 我會重複我說過的話，Jason 的意思是在一個季度左右之前投資組合達到 10 億美元時對我說的。 我們談到其中大約有三分之一是肉搏戰。 我們正在研究我剛剛在您詢問的內容中提到的這兩個學分。 顯然我們正處於困難的三分之一階段。 我們有大約三分之一的投資組合，我們不用擔心這些投資組合的租賃期很長，而且期限很長。 然後中間的東西，我們繼續進行判斷，我們積極管理，我們認為我們已經獲得了足夠的二級和三級支持以及就地租賃來通過一些工作進行工作。 因此，當您考慮 9.17 億美元總額中的 6% 時，請記住，還剩下一些特定儲備金。 當你考慮保留時，我們對此感到放心，因為它確實與投資組合的三分之一相對應，這對我們來說是最大的問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Breese with Stephens. Your line is open.

我們的下一個問題來自馬修·布里斯和史蒂芬斯的對話。 您的線路已開通。

Hey, good morning, everybody. And I'm I was hoping you could talk a little bit about expectations around loan and deposit betas over the next year or so and whether you've had any early success tweaking and lowering deposit costs, if so, where and then the other side of the coin is just given no, over the over the quarters, you've reduced asset sensitivity, whether or not you think full cycle loan paydown will match what we've seen certain items cycle, which was kind of a low 50% range.

嘿，大家早安。 我希望你能談談對未來一年左右的貸款和存款貝塔的預期，以及你是否在調整和降低存款成本方面取得了任何早期成功，如果是的話，在哪裡，然後在另一邊硬幣的價值只是給出了不，在過去的幾個季度中，您已經降低了資產敏感性，無論您是否認為全週期貸款還款將與我們所看到的某些項目週期相匹配，這是一種較低的50% 範圍。

Yes, I'll jump in there. And I think obviously, we had our first cut of the cycle, 50 basis points, and we took pretty quick action on the deposit portfolio. And we've repriced down 27, $28 billion of that portfolio to that of our deposit portfolio at about a 60% data. So as kind of a 16 billion at 100% data or you look at our total book of about 25% data so far and are interrelated deposit basically 100% almost immediate beta. And as our over $7 billion, which has a nice pricing down in our commercial deposits, polio now 60% data so far on our online portfolio with Brio in a bunch of different moves that our consumer portfolio through the first cut to. So we're feeling pretty good there.

是的，我會跳進去。 我認為顯然，我們進行了本週期的第一次降息，降息 50 個基點，我們對存款組合採取了相當快的行動。 我們已經將該投資組合中的 27、280 億美元重新定價為存款投資組合的 60% 左右。 因此，100% 的數據相當於 160 億美元，或者您看看我們迄今為止大約 25% 數據的總帳簿，並且相互關聯的存款基本上是 100% 幾乎立即貝塔。 隨著我們超過70 億美元的商業存款價格大幅下降，到目前為止，小兒麻痺在我們的線上投資組合中佔60% 的數據，Brio 在一系列不同的舉措中，我們的消費者投資組合透過了第一次削減。 所以我們在那裡感覺很好。

And as you take a step back and look at our overall portfolio within the next year, we expect approximately 30 billion of loans and securities and cash to reprice in at 28 billion in loans and 1 billion in securities. So our securities book is fixed and along with less than 1 billion out of our 17 billion portfolio of their variable.

當你退後一步看看我們明年的整體投資組合時，我們預計大約 300 億美元的貸款、證券和現金將重新定價為 280 億美元的貸款和 10 億美元的證券。 因此，我們的證券帳簿是固定的，我們 170 億個投資組合中的不到 10 億個是可變的。

So we can and I look at that as the repricing side on the loans. And if you flip to the deposit side in the first five quarters of the upcycle with 34% beta and we're anticipating approximately 30 basis, 30 Abatacept, 30 in the first five quarters down. And if you think about a 30% beta on a 65 $1 billion portfolio, you do the quick math there.

因此，我們可以將其視為貸款的重新定價方面。 如果你在上行週期的前五個季度轉向存款方面，貝塔率為 34%，我們預計前五個季度的基差約為 30，阿巴西普為 30，阿巴西普為 30。 如果您考慮 65 個 10 億美元投資組合的 30% 貝塔值，您可以快速計算一下。

And that's about 19% to 20% data. We have short borrowings at $3 billion or $4 billion will mature this quarter. And next, we've got a 5 billion our hedge portfolio that helps support our current positioning. And then there's another large factor for us is that we have approach ultimately $5 billion of fixed rate securities that mature in churn annually.

這大約是 19% 到 20% 的數據。 我們有 30 億美元的短期借款，即 40 億美元將在本季到期。 接下來，我們有 50 億美元的對沖投資組合，有助於支持我們目前的定位。 對我們來說還有一個重要因素是我們最終每年流失的固定利率證券接近 50 億美元。

And those are anticipated to rollover roll off at about 4% and roll back on with new originations in the 6% range. So the 200 basis points or so up. So when you kind to put all that together, we have a pretty well balanced position going into next year, as you can see in our model results, very neutral positioning and despite us having a fairly large portion of variable rate loans. So long answer there, but it as an important topic, and I think the team has done a really good job positioning us for this down rate environment. I appreciate all that.

這些預計將下降 4% 左右，並在 6% 的範圍內以新的形式回滾。 所以漲了200個基點左右。 因此，當您將所有這些放在一起時，我們將在明年擁有相當平衡的頭寸，正如您在我們的模型結果中看到的那樣，儘管我們擁有相當大一部分的可變利率貸款，但定位非常中性。 答案很長，但這是一個重要的主題，我認為團隊在這種降價環境中為我們定位做得非常好。 我很感激這一切。

Thank you. And the follow-up is just on expenses on expectations around expense growth over the next year or so. Specifically as it relates to prepare preparation for $100 billion on, should we expect any acceleration in the coming quarters or year in expense growth as we get ready for this? And what areas do you expect to to address as you as you kind of piece of infrastructure?

謝謝。 後續行動只是關於未來一年左右費用增長的預期費用。 具體來說，因為它涉及為 1000 億美元做準備，當我們為此做好準備時，我們是否應該預期未來幾季或一年的費用成長會加速？ 作為基礎設施，您希望解決哪些領域的問題？

Thank you for the question, and this may leave you a little wanting for more. But as we said, we're finishing up right now with Peter and our plan for our march to category for I always remind you that were three to four years away from an organic growth perspective in hitting 100 billion category. And as we mentioned before, there will be additional expense for us to get there in terms of hiring people and building out reporting capabilities and technology and obviously the expensive T lack and we're going through right now, kind of the cadence of running that through in our plan is, as I mentioned last quarter, is that in January when we give our 25 guidance, that will include kind of our fully loaded assumptions about what that means for expenses.

謝謝你提出這個問題，這可能會讓你有點想要更多。 但正如我們所說，我們現在正在與彼得一起完成我們向類別進軍的計劃，因為我總是提醒您，距離達到 1000 億類別的有機增長還需要三到四年的時間。 正如我們之前提到的，為了實現這一目標，我們在招聘人員、建立報告能力和技術方面將需要額外的費用，顯然，昂貴的 T 缺乏，我們現在正在經歷，有點像運行該程序的節奏。正如我上個季度提到的，我們計劃中的重點是，在一月份我們給出25 項指導時，其中將包括我們對這對費用意味著什麼的全面假設。

I also remind you that we have the three to four years to spread those expenses out. And you heard Neil mentioned earlier, for example, that we took some charges on on severance and reorganization in the quarter. And a lot of those moves in terms of exiting non-core businesses in looking at our organization will free up dollars to invest.

我還提醒您，我們有三到四年的時間來分攤這些費用。 例如，您之前聽到尼爾提到，我們在本季對遣散費和重組收取了一些費用。 在我們的組織中，許多退出非核心業務的舉措將釋放資金進行投資。

So as we move forward, you're going to get the answer to the question in January in our '25 guidance, we think that that will put additional pressure on our expenses, but it won't be material. We still feel very confident in our ability to deliver outsized returns as we go through this process. And so, you know, Neil, I don't know if you want to put a little bit of more flavor around that.

因此，隨著我們前進，您將在一月份在我們的 25 指南中得到問題的答案，我們認為這會給我們的支出帶來額外的壓力，但不會是實質性的。 在整個過程中，我們仍然對自己提供巨額回報的能力充滿信心。 所以，你知道，尼爾，我不知道你是否想對此添加更多風味。

But yes, I think you said that well, John, and one of my initial concerns come into the organization was they were running at a 45% efficiency ratio or they're really opportunities to buy more efficiency. And as John mentioned, the team has done a nice job putting together a small program. And with the restructuring charges we took this quarter, we expect our expense run rate next year. It dropped $17 million, which will flow all to the bottom line will use some of those dollars to reinvest and prepare for category for. So I think it's an example of how we can continue to find efficiencies to pave our way to that, that look kind of the requirements.

但是，是的，我認為你說得很好，約翰，我最初對組織的擔憂之一是他們以 45% 的效率運行，或者他們確實是購買更高效率的機會。 正如約翰所提到的，團隊在建立一個小程式方面做得很好。 根據我們本季收取的重組費用，我們預計明年的費用運行率。 它損失了 1700 萬美元，這將全部流入利潤，並將使用其中的一些美元進行再投資並為該類別做準備。 所以我認為這是一個例子，說明我們如何繼續提高效率，為實現這一目標鋪平道路，這看起來符合要求。

And as John mentioned, we'll talk about specific number orders in Q1, but you have to take a step back. We are the expense base. It's just over $1.3 billion to 1% of that is $13 million at the at a 10% to our expense growth rate over the next four years. That probably has a good chunk of what we need to bill. I'm not saying that that's what's going to happen, but just kind of highlighting that it should be some incremental around the edges of the expense side versus the kind of a big pop up of one-time expenses is the current deal. But as John mentioned, we're not fully Germany the analysis on preparation, and we're making good progress there. And we'll give more details on Q1.

正如約翰所提到的，我們將在第一季討論具體的數字順序，但你必須退後一步。 我們是支出基地。 這只是略高於 13 億美元，其中 1% 是 1300 萬美元，以我們未來四年的費用增長率 10% 計算。 這可能佔了我們需要計費的很大一部分。 我並不是說這就是將會發生的事情，只是強調它應該在費用方面的邊緣有所增量，而不是當前交易中一次性費用的大幅增加。 但正如約翰所提到的，我們還沒有完全了解德國的準備情況，但我們在這方面取得了良好的進展。我們將提供有關第一季的更多詳細資訊。

I appreciate all that. Thank you. That's all I had.

我很感激這一切。 謝謝。 這就是我所擁有的一切。

Thank you, Matt.

謝謝你，馬特。

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Tamayo with Raymond James. Your line is open.

你的下一個問題來自丹尼爾·塔馬約和雷蒙·詹姆斯的對話。 您的線路已開通。

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. From. I guess first, just a follow up on the credit side from China. I think you mentioned and selection and credit could lead to the possibility for increased repurchases going forward. But how should we think about that? Do you think that the non-accruals are at or nearing a peak here? Obviously, there's some uncertainty with how the whole office loan environment plays out. But I'm just curious how we should be thinking about those nonaccrual and kind of early stage credit levels and how that plays into your thinking on that chart jobs as well.

謝謝。 大家早安。 從。 我想首先是中國信貸方面的後續行動。 我認為你提到過，選擇和信用可能會導致未來增加回購的可能性。 但我們該如何思考這個問題呢？ 您認為非應計費用是否已達到或接近高峰？ 顯然，整個辦公室貸款環境的發展存在一些不確定性。 但我只是好奇我們應該如何考慮那些非應計和早期階段的信用水平，以及這如何影響你對圖表工作的思考。

Yes, it's a terrific question. And one that I love answering just because it's did it is difficult to predict on. We mentioned last quarter that this quarter would be of no less worse. If you were and were marginally less worse. We've been through the entire portfolio. We are getting to a point where I think we've identified obviously, all proactively all of the real issues in the portfolio that we go through. And I again remind everybody that if you look at our absolute statistics, there kind of still in line with pre-pandemic statistics. So I know a lot of CEOs are saying we're trying to remind everybody that this hasn't been a key catering of credit. It's been sort of a return to normalcy on credit on our hope right now. And what we're looking at is we've got interest rate coming down. We have already seen an increase in commercial real estate refinancing activity based on the on the behavior of the five year and the forward curve.

是的，這是一個很棒的問題。 我喜歡回答這個問題，因為它確實很難預測。 我們上個季度提到，本季的情況也不會更糟。 如果你過去和現在稍微不那麼糟糕的話。 我們已經瀏覽了整個投資組合。 我們已經到了這樣一個階段，我認為我們已經清楚地、主動地識別了我們所經歷的投資組合中的所有真正問題。 我再次提醒大家，如果你看看我們的絕對統計數據，你會發現仍然與疫情前的統計數據相符。 所以我知道很多執行長都在說，我們試著提醒大家，這並不是信貸的關鍵。 現在我們的希望已經恢復到信貸正常狀態了。 我們正在關注的是利率正在下降。 根據五年和遠期曲線的表現，我們已經看到商業房地產再融資活動增加。

And so as interest rates come down, if the Fed navigates the soft landing, I do think that we should see running through bank P & L's and bank balance sheets, an inflection point in credit, certainly in the first half of 25, it's tough to call a portal particular quarter. We have seen some negative risk rating migration. We've been pleased that migration has not continued to result in higher levels of annualized charge-offs on.

因此，隨著利率下降，如果聯準會實現軟著陸，我確實認為我們應該看到銀行損益表和銀行資產負債表，這是信貸的拐點，當然是在 25 年上半年，這很艱難調用特定季度的門戶網站。 我們看到了一些負面風險評級的遷移。 我們很高興遷移並沒有繼續導致更高水準的年度沖銷。

And so it will be difficult for me to say, hey, we think 4Q is the bottom. But I do think all the macro factors and our our understanding of our portfolio that the first half of 25, we should start to see kind of absolute improvement in the balance sheet.

所以我很難說，嘿，我們認為第四季是底部。 但我確實認為，所有宏觀因素以及我們對投資組合的理解，25 年上半年，我們應該開始看到資產負債表的絕對改善。

And obviously, we have a forward look based on where we're trading. If you're asking the question with respect to capital allocation and return of capital, you know, we've got lots of earnings. We've got really good reserves. So we'll put that all into the box and decide whether or not in the fourth quarter we start buybacks for whether or not that's the first half of '25 activity.

顯然，我們根據我們的交易地點進行前瞻性展望。 如果您問的是有關資本配置和資本回報的問題，您知道，我們有很多收益。 我們有非常好的儲備。 因此，我們將把所有這些都放進盒子裡，並決定是否在第四季開始回購，無論這是否是 25 年上半年的活動。

Okay, terrific. Thanks for all that color. And then changing gears here. Just looking at loan growth, loan growth side, you talked about how the fourth quarter could be impacted by some slower, perhaps CNI and sponsor with the headwinds you mentioned specifically for prepayments. But I'm just curious, the pace of growth in the third quarter, what you saw there, if that if that picked up near the end of the quarter, but it was relatively steady. And then and then just also curious on the residential side expectations for sure how much you're going to be adding to the portfolio relative to the other, the other side of the hubs? Thanks.

好吧，太棒了。 感謝所有這些顏色。 然後在這裡換檔。 就貸款成長而言，您談到了第四季度可能會受到一些較慢的因素（也許是 CNI 和贊助商）的影響，以及您特別提到的預付款方面的不利因素。 但我只是好奇，第三季的成長速度，你在那裡看到的，如果在季度末附近有所回升，但相對穩定。 然後，我也對住宅方面的期望感到好奇，以確定相對於樞紐的另一邊，您將在投資組合中增加多少？ 謝謝。

Yes, our in our primary focus is continuing to grow a myriad of of C&I categories. I would say the loan behaviors in the third quarter, interest in that 1.3% growth, if you take out the securitization, it was sort of it more back ended, if you will, in the quarter, which gives us some momentum on NI as we go into Q4. And as I said, we've continued to see pull through in the early in the fourth quarter.

是的，我們的主要關注點是繼續發展無數的工商業類別。 我想說的是，第三季度的貸款行為，1.3% 的增長利息，如果你去掉證券化，它有點後端，如果你願意的話，在第三季度，這給了我們一些 NI 的動力，因為我們進入第四季。 正如我所說，我們在第四季初繼續看到了成長。

The reason we did enough the guidance is because we know there's a lot of activity both on origination and prepayments in the quarter. We don't really have full full visibility yet. I think we still have pressure on our Sponsor & Specialty business from the proliferation of private credit. We're going to have our asset manager program, hopefully up and running in the first quarter, which should give us some additional momentum there. Our middle market performed well.

我們提供足夠指導的原因是我們知道本季在發起和預付款方面都有很多活動。 我們還沒有真正完全了解。 我認為我們的贊助商和專業業務仍然面臨著來自私人信貸激增的壓力。 我們將擁有資產管理計劃，希望在第一季啟動並運行，這應該會給我們帶來一些額外的動力。 我們的中間市場表現良好。

Our public sector finance perform well. We've got other levers to pull in asset based lending and equipment finance. So at the and I think with our portfolio will continue to be able to grow C&I categories, you'll probably see some level, as Neil mentioned, of modest growth in commercial real estate because right now, if you're good at it and you can get really nice risk reward because there fewer players in the market on. And then I think we'll sort of fill in with our mortgage originations, obviously, circle of correspondent mortgage origination. So I would say it's balanced.

我們的公共部門財政表現良好。 我們還有其他槓桿來吸引以資產為基礎的貸款和設備融資。 因此，我認為，隨著我們的投資組合將繼續能夠增長工商業類別，正如尼爾提到的那樣，您可能會看到商業房地產在一定程度上出現適度增長，因為現在，如果您擅長於此，並且你可以獲得非常好的風險回報，因為市場上的參與者較少。 然後我想我們會填寫我們的抵押貸款起源，顯然，對應抵押貸款起源的圈子。 所以我想說這是平衡的。

And on balance, we still think that kind of 5%, 5% ish annualized loan growth is the right is the right number.

總的來說，我們仍然認為 5%、5% 左右的年化貸款成長是正確的數字。

Okay, great. Thanks for all the color.

好的，太好了。 感謝所有的顏色。

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Alexander Keane with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Ben Alexander Keane。 您的線路已開通。

Hey, guys, good morning. So on Page 6 of the deck, I think you noted that you've identified and documented certain loans eligible to optimize our WA treatment. I know you've been talking about this on the call, but just to elaborate a bit more of these actions on and if you could size how big this was our topline improvement during the quarter?

嘿，夥計們，早安。 因此，在本套牌的第 6 頁上，我想您已經注意到，您已經確定並記錄了某些符合優化我們 WA 處理條件的貸款。 我知道您在電話會議上一直在談論這一點，但只是想詳細說明這些行動，您是否可以估算一下我們在本季度的營收改善有多大？

Yes. So I think all of our actions in total were about 44 basis points for the quarter. We really went in and dig deep dive into our multi-family lender, finance and public sector of portfolios and looked at the risk weighting. And I'll give you an example, kind of in the public sector, we had a lot of a loan sitting at 100% risk weighting in general obligation bonds can be at 20% and revenue plus 50%.

是的。 因此，我認為本季我們所有的行動總計約為 44 個基點。 我們真正深入研究了我們的多戶貸款機構、金融和公共部門的投資組合，並研究了風險權重。 我舉個例子，在公部門，我們有許多貸款的風險權重為 100%，一般義務債券的風險權重可以是 20%，收入可以加上 50%。

So we did a lot of work to pull additional data and really optimize our risk weighting there. That's one example across the categories. So hopefully that in the and as we mentioned, that securitization also helped drive increased capital levels. And that was about six basis points included in that 44 that I just mentioned.

因此，我們做了很多工作來獲取更多數據並真正優化我們的風險權重。 這是各個類別的一個例子。 因此，正如我們所提到的，希望證券化也有助於推動資本水準的提高。 這大約是我剛才提到的 44 個基點中包含的 6 個基點。

Okay. That's helpful. Great. And then on expenses on obviously the technology you basically highlighted you've been making significant investments in the tech stack, modernizing the clubs platform, the BSA/AML sub security cloud capabilities during the quarter unit, you know, so highlighted the tech spend increase sequentially, professional services and occupancy costs. Can you just provide some color on those off for the quarter on on the tech professional and occupancy of specific it, what should you regard your question, meaning specific expenses related to those initiatives for the quarter?

好的。 這很有幫助。 偉大的。 然後，在明顯的技術支出方面，您基本上強調了您在本季度期間對技術堆疊、俱樂部平台現代化、BSA/AML 子安全雲功能進行了大量投資，因此強調了技術支出的增加其次是專業服務和入住成本。 您能否提供一些有關本季度技術專業人員和特定人員佔用情況的信息，您應該如何看待您的問題，即與本季度這些計劃相關的具體費用？

Yes, that's yes. We don't really think about it that way. I think that this is now we know every year we look at a rolling three year technology roadmap, investment initiatives and everything that you highlighted there that we've highlighted in Italy, the specific items that you're talking about are part of the long term strategy that we've been deploying.

是的，是的。我們並不是真的這麼想。 我認為現在我們知道每年我們都會查看滾動的三年技術路線圖、投資計劃以及您在意大利強調的所有內容，您所談論的具體項目是長期計劃的一部分我們一直在部署的術語策略。

So there's nothing really new there that we would isolate as something that's going to be recurring long-term in nature. Neil alluded to what we expect expense expenses are going to be and then with the progression of those are going to be into 2025. And it will all know that that estimate a projection includes everything that we think is going to be required to continue to modernize the text that build out the tech stack investor, the various business fund investment risk management platforms. And so of all, it's all inclusive of we provide that guidance for 2021.

因此，沒有什麼真正新的東西可以被我們隔離為自然界中長期重複出現的東西。 尼爾提到了我們預期的支出情況，然後隨著這些支出的進展將進入 2025 年。風險管理平台。 最重要的是，我們為 2021 年提供了指導。

We don't envision that there's going to be the outsized tech spend in 2025 relative to what you've seen this year. So we feel again, we feel pretty good about what are taking a long-term technology road map is indeed, we have a clear path to making the investments in specific areas to support client experience while at the same time building out risking operating platforms.

我們預計 2025 年的技術支出不會比今年高太多。 因此，我們再次感到，我們對長期技術路線圖確實感到非常滿意，我們有一條明確的道路，可以在特定領域進行投資以支援客戶體驗，同時建立有風險的營運平台。

Okay, great. Thanks for taking my questions. Thanks, Sharon.

好的，太好了。 感謝您回答我的問題。 謝謝，莎倫。

Your next question comes from the line of Laurie Hunsicker with C. point. Your line is open.

你的下一個問題來自 Laurie Hunsicker 與 C. point 的關係。 您的線路已開通。

Good morning, gentlemen. May I welcome. I'm thinking let's go back to office and here and certainly appreciate office is only 2% of your, but can you be very proactive and transparent on your 54 million of loan loss provisions that you take the quarter, how much of that was our best? And then of the loans that are that our new on nonperforming, that 45,000,025 million, can you help us think a little bit about what is the occupancy? What's the new debt service there? And then specific reserves on those too long in Atlanta, the backdrop that you gave mark office reserves or 6% or 55 million, basically heavier 55 million. What are the specific reserves on those two loans?

早安，先生們。 請允許我歡迎。 我想讓我們回到辦公室，當然，辦公室只佔你的 2%，但你能非常主動和透明地了解你本季度提取的 5400 萬貸款損失撥備嗎？ ？ 那麼，在我們新增的不良貸款中，即 45,000,025 百萬，您能否幫助我們思考一下佔用率是多少？ 新的償債方式是什麼？ 然後是亞特蘭大那些太久的具體儲備，你給馬克辦公室儲備的背景是6%或5500萬，基本上重5500萬。 這兩項貸款的具體準備金是多少？

And then just trying to a final question here on offense and specifically that that's $45 million exposure that bank well just filed parent part about and you guys it looks like they'll be naive filing, like albeit on. Can you just help us think about P&L again, this is just part of the bank while filing that there was a refresh property or claims sometime in April at 105 million and then five months later, that properties now went 36 million, which helps if you could just help us think through any parts about it would be really helpful. Thanks.

然後我想問最後一個關於進攻的問題，具體來說，銀行剛剛向母公司提交了 4500 萬美元的風險敞口，你們這些人，看起來他們的提交似乎很幼稚，儘管已經提交了。 您能幫我們再次考慮損益表嗎？ ，這會有所幫助，如果您可以幫助我們思考有關它的任何部分，這將非常有幫助。 謝謝。

Yes, Laurie, I'm I don't think personally, I don't have all of that information. And I and I don't think I can give you a very good answers there. I mean, I'll tell you with respect to diesel and the provisioning for the quarter, there's so many in announced, right that that there's there's you can't identify the amount of the provision related to a specific credit or even to a specific portfolio because what you're doing is refreshing and updating your risk ratings along with your qualitative factors.

是的，勞裡，我個人認為我沒有所有這些資訊。 我認為我不能給你一個很好的答案。 我的意思是，我會告訴您關於柴油和本季度的撥備，已宣布的內容太多，以至於您無法確定與特定信貸甚至特定信貸相關的撥備金額。是刷新和更新您的風險評級以及定性因素。

And you're coming up with a refreshed life of loan losses for $52 billion our portfolio. So certainly the amount of charge-offs impacts what you provide, but it doesn't necessarily immediately correlate with where the charge-offs came from. So I don't think I can draw a connection to those two loans to our provision. I gave you the fact that the charge-offs in the quarter, about 55% of the charge-offs were related to office loans. Those loans we mentioned being the largest drivers. We actually had net recoveries and consumer, which offset our overall charge-offs a little bit. So again, it's tough to draw those conclusions.

您將為我們 520 億美元的投資組合帶來新的貸款損失。 因此，沖銷金額肯定會影響您提供的服務，但它不一定與沖銷來源直接相關。 因此，我認為我無法將這兩筆貸款與我們的條款聯繫起來。 我提供給大家的事實是，本季的沖銷中，大約 55% 的沖銷與辦公貸款有關。 我們提到的那些貸款是最大的推動因素。 實際上，我們有淨回收和消費者，這稍微抵消了我們的整體沖銷。 再說一次，很難得出這些結論。

I certainly don't have the in-place debt service coverage and LTVs on that those two specific loans. Now what I can tell you from the CEOC. is that if they're on non-accrual, it means that there's a question as to whether or not the underlying cash flows can repay the loan as agreed. So we might be will give you some of that offline with Emlen, Jason, but I can't give you the specifics on those to transact options. We were the lead lender on your correctly. It was a I think, of 2019 or 2018 origination significantly pre-merger, um, so I can tell you that we were the agent on those two credits.

我當然沒有這兩項特定貸款的就地償債保險和貸款價值比。 現在我可以從執行長那裡告訴你。是，如果它們是非應計的，則意味著存在基礎現金流能否按約定償還貸款的問題。 因此，我們可能會向您提供一些與埃姆倫、傑森一起離線的信息，但我無法向您提供有關交易選項的具體信息。 我們是您的主要貸款人。 我認為，這是 2019 年或 2018 年的重大合併前的起源，嗯，所以我可以告訴你，我們是這兩個信用的代理。

And I think that's the information that I have available to us available to me here. Okay. Okay. And then my follow-up question, just switching gears. one in the quarter was kind of debt securities restructuring occur. And then finally, do you have on September ninth, March and I say avocados, but I'll jump in with a September spot margins. So September was a little bit lower. We were about 3.31%. Loans came down eight basis points in deposits, two basis points. I'll caveat that by saying a monthly them a little bit more variable than quarterly net adds. I'll also say that September NAM really represents our repricing dynamics. So for started, moving down well before the Fed US And there's obviously some lag there with our deposits repricing later with the cut coming than we have sort of holding higher levels of cash in September. So since mid-September, as I mentioned before, we've taken significant action and on our deposit costs, that 25% beta already.

我認為這就是我在這裡可以獲得的資訊。 好的。 好的。 然後是我的後續問題，只是切換齒輪。 一季就出現了債務證券重組的情況。 最後，你們有九月九號嗎，三月，我說酪梨，但我會用九月的現貨利潤來插話。 所以九月份的價格要低一些。 我們大約是3.31%。 貸款下降了八個基點，存款下降了兩個基點。 我要警告的是，每月的淨增加量比季度淨增加量的變化要大一些。 我還要說，9 月 NAM 確實代表了我們的重新定價動態。 因此，從一開始，我們的存款就比聯準會在 9 月持有更高水準的現金要晚，隨著降息的到來，我們的存款重新定價明顯存在一些滯後。 因此，正如我之前提到的，自 9 月中旬以來，我們已經對存款成本採取了重大行動，即 25% 的貝塔值。

And we are confident that our Q4 and then we'll come in above our September spot number. Yes, I think that that and then the as the transaction, there was kind of it happened throughout the quarter, but probably weighted average more to the middle of the quarter.

我們有信心第四季的業績將高於 9 月份的業績。 是的，我認為，隨著交易的發生，整個季度都發生了這種情況，但加權平均可能更多到季度中期。

Your next question comes from the line of Samuel with UBS. Your line is open.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的山繆。 您的線路已開通。

Good morning. I just wanted to go back to the securities book in. So you commented on the role on yields being around 6% expected on the sort of the 5 billion of annual cash flows on that. Obviously, this quarter was 584. So can you just comment on why this quarter was low or why you expect it to move higher over the next 12 months?

早安. 我只是想回到證券帳簿。 顯然，本季為 584。

Yes. So unlike commented at 6%, that was more a mix of loans and securities, so kind of full fixed rate repricing to your point in this quarter, we added $1 billion of 584. I think we're modeling a five 40 average for Q4. And our most recent purchase was kind of in between I mean that five and four and five 40. So I'm feeling good about our numbers there. But just to clarify that 6% of that plus 200 basis points with the repricing of our fixed securities and loans

是的。 因此，與評論中的6% 不同，這更多的是貸款和證券的組合，所以在本季度按照您的觀點進行完全固定利率重新定價，我們增加了10 億美元的584。第四季的5 40 平均值建模。 我們最近的購買量介於 5 和 4 和 5 40 之間。 但只是想澄清一下，其中 6% 加上我們固定證券和貸款的重新定價 200 個基點

So that's why the numbers a little bit higher than that.

這就是為什麼數字比這個高一點。

Yes, thanks for that. Clarification on that. And then on the Brio, our deposit base, you said the 60% beta, just to clarify as well. Is that on the new production for this quarter? Is that the overall book given the short duration of the sorry, the realized 60%?

是的，謝謝。 對此進行澄清。 然後，在我們的存款基礎 Brio 上，您提到了 60% 的貝塔值，這也是為了澄清一下。 這是本季的新作品嗎？ 考慮到抱歉的持續時間很短，這就是整本書，實現了 60% 嗎？

Yes, the 60% on the overall portfolio.

是的，佔整體投資組合的 60%。

Okay. And then and then so in terms of new production, have you been able to get to near 100% or potentially over 100%?

好的。 然後，就新產量而言，你們是否能夠達到接近 100% 或可能超過 100% 的水平？

Yes. So I think before the cut into where we're at right now, we're down 30 basis points, 50 basis points of the cut and are actively monitoring for potential additional moves. We've done. I think the team has done a really nice job of balancing liquidity versus earnings. And we've been very prudent in our moves and what you'll see more downward moves from us in the future as we've seen pretty good client reaction so far through the first cut that we made at the end of the Company restaurants.

是的。 因此，我認為在降息之前，我們已經下調了 30 個基點，降息後 50 個基點，並正在積極監控潛在的進一步舉措。 我們已經做到了。 我認為該團隊在平衡流動性與收益方面做得非常好。 我們對我們的舉措非常謹慎，您將來會看到我們更多的下降，因為到目前為止，透過我們在公司餐廳末端進行的第一次切割，我們已經看到了相當好的客戶反應。

And actually, there is no real the portfolio was one rate on the portfolio. So Dollar versus the existing portfolio, all others, diverse product pricing in there. So the way to think about it is one overall data for the portfolio, which is a distant deposits plus new deposits are elevated originated. That revenue level. It's actually the same exact thing yields or the beta on both new and existing would be roughly the same.

事實上，真正的投資組合並不存在單一利率。 因此，美元與現有的投資組合以及所有其他產品的定價不同。 因此，思考這個問題的方法是投資組合的一個整體數據，即遠期存款加上新存款的增加。 那個收入水準。 實際上，新產品和現有產品的收益率是完全相同的，或者說貝塔值大致相同。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes the question and answer session, and I'll turn the call to John Cuilla for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束，我將請約翰‧庫拉 (John Cuilla) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you very much. We appreciate everyone joining today and your continued interest in the Company. Have a great day.

非常感謝。 我們感謝今天加入的所有人以及您對公司的持續關注。 祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

今天的會議到此結束。 我們感謝您的加入。 現在您可以斷開線路。