Webster Financial Corp (WBS) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

Welcome to the Webster Financial third quarter 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加韋伯斯特金融 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

Please note this event is being recorded.

請注意此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to introduce Webster's Director of Investor Relations, Emlen Harmon to introduce the call.

現在我想請韋伯斯特投資者關係總監 Emlen Harmon 介紹這次電話會議。

Mr. Harmon, please go ahead.

哈蒙先生，請繼續。

Good morning.

早安.

Before we begin our remarks, I want to remind you that the comments made by management may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Security Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

在我們開始發言之前，我想提醒您，管理階層發表的評論可能包括 1995 年《私人安全訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

They're subject to the Safe Harbor rules.

他們受安全港規則的約束。

Please review the forward-looking disclaimer and safe harbor language in today's press release and presentation for more information about risks and uncertainties which may affect us.

請查看今天的新聞稿和簡報中的前瞻性免責聲明和安全港語言，以了解有關可能影響我們的風險和不確定性的更多資訊。

The presentation and company management's remarks can be found on the company's investor relations site at investors.websterbank.com. For the Q&A portion of the call, we ask that each participant ask just one question and one follow up prior to before returning to the queue.

簡報和公司管理層的評論可以在公司的投資者關係網站 Investors.websterbank.com 上找到。對於電話的問答部分，我們要求每位參與者在返回隊列之前僅提出一個問題和一個跟進問題。

I'll now turn it over to Webster Financial CEO, Chairman, John Ciulla.

現在我將把它交給韋伯斯特金融公司執行長兼董事長約翰·丘拉 (John Ciulla)。

Thanks, Harmon.

謝謝，哈蒙。

Good morning and welcome to Webster Financial Corporation's third quarter 2024 earnings call.

早安，歡迎參加韋伯斯特金融公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

We appreciate you joining us this morning.

我們感謝您今天早上加入我們。

I'm very pleased to welcome Neal Holland as he is joining his first earnings call as Webster's CFO.

我非常高興地歡迎 Neal Holland 作為 Webster 財務長參加他的第一次財報電話會議。

As we anticipated, Neal has hit the ground running since he officially stepped into the role in mid August.

正如我們所預期的那樣，Neal 自從八月中旬正式上任以來就開始了積極的工作。

And you can already see the impact of some of the steps his team has taken to optimize the positioning of our balance sheet and grow interest income in this quarter.

您已經可以看到他的團隊為優化我們的資產負債表定位和增加本季利息收入而採取的一些措施所產生的影響。

Luis Massiani, Webster's President and Chief Operating Officer is also joining us for the Q&A portion of the call today.

韋伯斯特總裁兼營運長路易斯·馬西亞尼 (Luis Massiani) 也將參加今天電話會議的問答部分。

I'll provide remarks on our high level results and operations before turning it over to Neal to cover our financial results in greater detail.

我將先對我們的高水準業績和營運情況進行評論，然後再交給尼爾，以更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

We're really pleased with our strategic and tactical accomplishments in the quarter.

我們對本季的戰略和戰術成就感到非常滿意。

I'll hit the highlights and Neal will provide more details.

我將重點介紹，尼爾將提供更多細節。

We grew deposits 3.6% in the quarter including growth in DDA, overall commercial deposits and HSA.

本季我們的存款成長了 3.6%，其中包括 DDA、整體商業存款和 HSA 的成長。

We grew loans 0.7% in the quarter consistent with our full year growth expectations excluding a $300 million securitization we performed to reduce our CRE concentration, our growth was 1.3% in the quarter with accelerating growth in C&I categories.

本季我們的貸款成長了0.7%，與我們的全年成長預期一致，不包括我們為降低CRE 集中度而進行的3 億美元證券化，隨著C&I 類別的加速成長，我們本季的貸款成長了1.3%。

We further reduced our CRE concentration through payoffs and reclassification of certain health care related loans.

我們透過償付和重新分類某些醫療保健相關貸款，進一步降低了商業房地產的集中度。

As a result, our pre outstandings as a percentage of tier one capital and reserves declined from 285% to approximately 265% at the end of Q3.

因此，我們的預未償餘額佔一級資本和準備金的比例從 285% 下降至第三季末的約 265%。

Our net interest income grew quarter over quarter and increased over last year's comparable period in line with our full year expectations.

我們的淨利息收入較上季成長，並比去年同期有所成長，符合我們的全年預期。

We benefited from asset growth and a balance sheet repositioning.

我們受益於資產成長和資產負債表重新定位。

We continue to mitigate our asset sensitivity, positioning us well as rates continue to come down.

我們繼續降低資產敏感性，使我們在利率持續下降的情況下保持良好的定位。

Our capital levels remain strong with our CET 1 now in excess of our current operating target of 11% resulting from earnings and capital optimization activities providing us capital flexibility in 4Q and beyond.

我們的資本水準保持強勁，我們的 CET 1 目前超過了當前 11% 的營運目標，這得益於盈利和資本優化活動，為我們在第四季度及以後提供了資本靈活性。

Our expenses remain well managed, resulting in a third quarter efficiency ratio of 45%, still in an industry leading position.

我們的費用管理依然良好，第三季的效率達到 45%，仍處於業界領先地位。

I now turn to our financial performance for the quarter beginning on slide 2.

我現在轉向從幻燈片 2 開始的本季度的財務業績。

On an adjusted basis for the quarter, we generated a return on average assets of 1.22% and a return on tangible common equity of 17.3%.

在本季調整後的基礎上，我們的平均資產報酬率為 1.22%，有形普通股報酬率為 17.3%。

Our adjusted EPS was $1.34. Our profitability and return metrics remain favorable to peers again this quarter.

我們調整後的每股收益為 1.34 美元。本季我們的獲利能力和回報指標仍然優於同業。

At this point, most of you are familiar with slide 3, which illustrates our diverse and versatile deposit base.

至此，大多數人都熟悉投影片 3，它說明了我們多元化和多功能的存款基礎。

As I mentioned up front, our robust growth this period came from a breath of the segments on the slide including lower cost channels in our Commercial Bank, HSA bank and Ametros.

正如我之前提到的，我們這段時期的強勁成長來自於下滑的細分市場，包括我們的商業銀行、HSA 銀行和 Ametros 的低成本管道。

We executed on the $400 million deposit opportunity for HSA bank we discussed last quarter which provided a nice boost to deposits there.

我們執行了上季度討論過的 HSA 銀行 4 億美元的存款機會，這極大地促進了那裡的存款。

Strong execution within the Commercial Bank added to lower cost funding growth as well.

商業銀行內部的強大執行力也降低了融資成本的成長。

Our ability to generate low-cost funding across a number of business segments continues to be a tremendous advantage in growing our balance sheet efficiently and profitably.

我們在多個業務領域籌集低成本資金的能力仍然是我們有效和盈利地擴大資產負債表的巨大優勢。

Moving to slide 4, I will review our commercial real estate portfolio as that has been a continued focus of investors.

轉到投影片 4，我將回顧我們的商業房地產投資組合，因為這一直是投資者的持續關注焦點。

The segment of the CRE portfolio on which we have been most focused continues to be traditional office.

我們最關注的商業房地產投資組合部分仍然是傳統辦公室。

The portfolio balance continues to shrink with $917 million in outstandings at quarter end down roughly 45% from the first half of 2022.

投資組合餘額持續萎縮，季末未償餘額為 9.17 億美元，較 2022 年上半年下降約 45%。

We did see some continued negative migration this quarter with non-accrual loans decreasing to 14% from 9% last quarter, largely as a result of two larger credits.

我們確實看到本季度出現了一些持續的負遷移，非應計貸款從上季度的 9% 降至 14%，這主要是由於兩項較大信貸的結果。

We continue to be proactive in identifying and managing problem credits and prudently managing reserves in the sector.

我們繼續積極主動地識別和管理問題信貸，並審慎管理該行業的儲備。

While it has been an investor focus, there have been no significant changes in the quality of our rent regulated multifamily portfolio where credit performance has held up consistently well.

儘管這一直是投資者關注的焦點，但我們受租金監管的多戶住宅投資組合的品質並沒有重大變化，其信用表現一直保持良好。

On credit more generally, we continue to see negative risk rating migration in the quarter as we keep a close eye on credit at a later stage in the cycle.

在更廣泛的信貸方面，我們在本季繼續看到負面風險評級遷移，因為我們在週期的後期階段密切關注信貸。

We did see our non-accrual loans increased by $50 million this quarter primarily driven by the aforementioned office portfolio migration.

我們確實看到本季的非應計貸款增加了 5000 萬美元，這主要是由上述辦公大樓投資組合遷移推動的。

Outside of CRE office, negative migration was generally credit specific across the portfolio and not driven by one industry sector or asset class.

在商業地產辦公室之外，負遷移通常是整個投資組合中特定的信貸，而不是由某一產業部門或資產類別所驅動的。

Although health care related portfolios continue to show some weakness.

儘管醫療保健相關投資組合繼續表現出一些疲軟。

While we have seen continued migration and will continue to be proactive in our risk reviews, our realization of loan losses remains in the range we have observed in recent quarters.

儘管我們看到了持續的遷移，並將繼續積極主動地進行風險審查，但我們實現的貸款損失仍處於我們最近幾季觀察到的範圍內。

And importantly, is consistent with through the cycle and pre-pandemic commercial annualized charge off rates.

重要的是，這與整個週期和疫情前的商業年化沖銷率是一致的。

With that, I'll turn it over to Neal to cover our financials in more detail.

這樣，我會將其交給尼爾，以更詳細地介紹我們的財務狀況。

Thanks John and good morning, everyone.

謝謝約翰，大家早安。

I'll start on slide 5 with our GAAP and adjusted earnings for the quarter.

我將從投影片 5 開始介紹我們的 GAAP 和本季調整後的收益。

On an adjusted basis, we reported net income to common shareholders of $230 million and diluted EPS of $1.34. Adjustments consisted of a pretax $20 million securities repositioning charge a $16 million impact from the exit of noncorporate factoring operations and a $22 million of strategic restructuring costs.

在調整後的基礎上，我們向普通股股東報告的淨利潤為 2.3 億美元，稀釋後每股收益為 1.34 美元。調整包括稅前 2,000 萬美元的證券重新定位費用、非公司保理業務退出帶來的 1,600 萬美元的影響以及 2,200 萬美元的策略重組成本。

Turning to slide 6, total assets were $79 billion at period end, at $2.6 billion from the second quarter, mirrored by robust deposit growth of $2.2 billion.

轉向投影片 6，期末總資產為 790 億美元，較第二季為 26 億美元，存款強勁成長 22 億美元也反映了這一點。

Deposit growth was aided by a seasonal surge in public funds of $1.1 billion.

公共資金季節性激增 11 億美元，推動了存款成長。

As a result of the substantial deposit growth, we are holding higher cash balances than we have historically.

由於存款大幅成長，我們持有的現金餘額高於歷史水準。

We also exhibited solid loan growth of 1.3% excluding the securitization.

不計入證券化，我們的貸款也實現了 1.3% 的穩健成長。

The loan to deposit ratio was 80.5%.

存貸比80.5%。

The [end year] book value increased to $33.26 per common share with the increase from the prior quarter driven by retained earnings and positive movement in AOCI due to the low rate environment.

[年末]帳面價值增至每股普通股 33.26 美元，較上季成長的原因是留存收益和低利率環境導致 AOCI 的積極變動。

Capital levels improved significantly.

資本水準顯著提升。

The common equity tier one ratio was 11.23% of 64 basis points three quarter.

三季普通股一級資本比率為11.23%，為64個基點。

And our tangible common equity ratio was 7.48%.

我們的有形普通股比率為 7.48%。

In addition to internal capital generation, the TCE ratio benefited from the improvement in AOCI.

除了內部資本生成外，TCE 比率也受益於 AOCI 的改善。

The common equity tier one ratio also benefited from several actions we undertook to optimize asset risk weighting as well as the securitization.

普通股一級比率也受益於我們為優化資產風險權重和證券化而採取的多項行動。

In total, these actions added 44 basis points to our common equity tier one ratio.

總的來說，這些行動使我們的普通股一級資本比率增加了 44 個基點。

Loan trends are highlighted on slide 7.

幻燈片 7 突顯了貸款趨勢。

In total, loans were up $374 million or 0.7% linked quarter, excluding CRE, other loan categories grew by 3.2% this quarter.

總體而言，貸款增加了 3.74 億美元，季增 0.7%，不包括 CRE，其他貸款類別本季成長 3.2%。

Commercial real estate balances were down $570 million as we experienced some natural attrition in addition to the securitization.

商業房地產餘額減少了 5.7 億美元，因為除了證券化之外，我們還經歷了一些自然損失。

This accelerates our path to our target of 250% of capital plus reserves.

這加速了我們實現資本加儲備金 250% 的目標。

The securitization frees capacity and adds -- and allows us to add commercial real estate relationships with attractive risk reward characteristics.

證券化釋放了產能並增加了商業房地產關係，並具有有吸引力的風險回報特徵。

The yield on the portfolio is flat given the mix of new loan originations and repricing of floating rate loans on the September fed move.

考慮到新貸款發放和 9 月聯準會採取的浮動利率貸款重新定價措施，該投資組合的收益率持平。

We provide additional detail on deposits on slide 8.

我們在幻燈片 8 上提供了有關存款的更多詳細資訊。

We grew total deposits by $2.2 billion with diverse growth across categories.

我們的存款總額增加了 22 億美元，各類別成長多元。

The pace was accelerated this quarter due to seasonal inflows of public deposits and a discrete opportunity with an HSA bank that added $400 million of low-cost deposits.

由於公共存款的季節性流入以及 HSA 銀行增加 4 億美元低成本存款的離散機會，本季這一步伐加快了。

CBA balances increased by over $700 million this quarter with the majority of the increase coming from seasonal effects.

本季 CBA 餘額增加了 7 億多美元，其中大部分成長來自季節性影響。

However, it is still encouraging to see normalization in the DDA balances after several quarters of declines.

然而，在經歷了幾個季度的下降之後，DDA 餘額的正常化仍然令人鼓舞。

Moving to slide 9, net interest income was up $18 million from the prior quarter driven by balance sheet growth and higher earning asset yields.

轉向幻燈片 9，由於資產負債表增長和盈利資產收益率上升，淨利息收入比上一季增加了 1800 萬美元。

Adjusted noninterest income was up, $1 million.

調整後的非利息收入增加了 100 萬美元。

Adjusted expenses were up $2 million and the provision decreased by $5 million.

調整後費用增加 200 萬美元，撥備減少 500 萬美元。

Excluding adjustments, our tax rate was 22.2%.

排除調整後，我們的稅率為 22.2%。

Overall adjusted net income was up $14 million relative to the prior quarter.

整體調整後淨利較上一季增加 1,400 萬美元。

Our efficiency ratio was 45%.

我們的效率是45%。

On slide 10, we highlight net interest income which increased $8 million or 3.1% linked quarter driven by balance sheet growth and the increased earning asset yield.

在投影片 10 中，我們重點介紹了淨利息收入，在資產負債表成長和生息資產收益率增加的推動下，淨利息收入增加了 800 萬美元，環比增長了 3.1%。

The net interest margin was up 4 basis points to 336 basis points.

淨利差上升4個基點至336個基點。

Our yield on earning assets increased 4 basis points over the prior quarter with loan yields flat and the securities portfolio of 24 basis points.

我們的生息資產收益率比上一季增加 4 個基點，貸款收益率持平，證券投資組合上升 24 個基點。

In the third quarter, we incrementally sold securities with a book value of $304 million and reinvested with an approximate 400 basis points improvement in yield with minimal impact to capital ratios.

第三季度，我們逐步出售了帳面價值 3.04 億美元的證券，並進行了再投資，收益率提高了約 400 個基點，對資本比率的影響最小。

We anticipate an earn-back of less than two years.

我們預計不到兩年就能回本。

On that, we were able to maintain our total deposit costs effectively flat for the quarter.

就此而言，我們能夠有效地維持本季的總存款成本持平。

Slide 11 illustrates the progress Webster has made in mitigating its asset sensitivity over the past three years by increasing the duration of our assets and reducing the duration of our liabilities.

投影片 11 展示了韋伯斯特在過去三年中透過增加資產期限和減少負債期限在降低資產敏感性方面取得的進展。

On slide 12 is not interest income, which was up $1 million versus prior quarter on an adjusted basis.

第 12 張投影片上沒有利息收入，調整後的利息收入比上一季增加了 100 萬美元。

Adjusted income included both a $3.8 million negative CBA and a $4.4 million gain on the securitization.

調整後收入包括 380 萬美元的負 CBA 和 440 萬美元的證券化收益。

We continue to experience pressure on core fee growth.

我們繼續面臨核心費用成長的壓力。

Year over year, fees are up $3 million including the impact of the Ametros acquisition offset by year over year changes in CBA.

費用比去年同期增加了 300 萬美元，其中包括 Ametros 收購的影響，但 CBA 的同比變化所抵消。

Noninterest expense is on slide 13.

非利息支出請見幻燈片 13。

We reported adjusted expenses of $328 million, up $2 million for the prior quarter driven by modest increases in technology, human capital and occupancy costs.

我們報告調整後費用為 3.28 億美元，比上一季增加 200 萬美元，原因是技術、人力資本和占用成本小幅增長。

Slide 14 details components of our allowance for credit losses, which was up $19 million relative to the prior quarter.

投影片 14 詳細介紹了我們的信貸損失準備金的組成部分，該準備金較上一季增加了 1,900 萬美元。

After booking $35 million in net charge offs, we recorded $54 million provision, primarily due to credit factors.

在預訂了 3,500 萬美元的淨沖銷後，我們記錄了 5,400 萬美元的撥備，這主要是由於信貸因素。

As a result, our allowance coverage to loans increased to 132 basis points from 130 basis points last quarter.

因此，我們的貸款準備金覆蓋率從上季的 130 個基點增加到 132 個基點。

Slide 15 highlights our key asset quality metrics.

投影片 15 重點介紹了我們的關鍵資產品質指標。

As you can see on the four charts, we saw continued migration in the quarter.

正如您在四個圖表中看到的那樣，我們在本季度看到了持續的遷移。

Net charge-offs came in at $36 million versus $33 million in the prior quarter.

淨沖銷額為 3,600 萬美元，而上一季為 3,300 萬美元。

On slide 16, we enhanced our [R&D] already strong capital levels.

在投影片 16 中，我們增強了本已強大的[研發]資本水準。

As we noted previously, we took several actions to improve our capital ratios in the quarter including reviewing the risk weighting of our multifamily, lender finance and public sector portfolios, as well as the securitization of multifamily loans.

正如我們先前指出的，我們在本季採取了多項行動來提高資本比率，包括審查多戶家庭、貸款人融資和公共部門投資組合的風險權重，以及多戶家庭貸款的證券化。

These actions in combination with organic capital generation and lower AOCI losses led to a significant increase in our capital ratios this quarter.

這些行動與有機資本產生和較低的 AOCI 損失相結合，導致本季我們的資本比率顯著提高。

I will wrap up my comments on slide 17 with our outlet for the fourth quarter.

我將在投影片 17 上總結我對第四季的評論。

We expect loans to grow by 1% to 1.5% with growth across the diverse categories including the potential for some modest growth in commercial real estate.

我們預計貸款將成長 1% 至 1.5%，各類別貸款均出現成長，其中商業房地產可能出現小幅成長。

We are anticipating deposits will decline by around 1% as seasonality in the public funds business leads to outflows.

由於公募基金業務的季節性導致資金外流，我們預期存款將下降 1%左右。

We expect net interest income in the range of $590 million to $600 million on a non-FTE basis.

我們預計非 FTE 基礎上的淨利息收入將在 5.9 億至 6 億美元之間。

This is within the guidance range we provided on the second quarter earnings call.

這在我們在第二季財報電話會議上提供的指導範圍內。

Our net interest income outlet assumes 50 basis points of cuts in the first, fourth quarter with 25 basis points each in November and December.

我們的淨利息收入管道假設第一季和第四季削減 50 個基點，11 月和 12 月各削減 25 個基點。

Adjusted noninterest income will be $85 million to $90 million.

調整後的非利息收入將為8500萬至9000萬美元。

We anticipate that adjusted expenses will be in the range of $335 million with an efficiency ratio in the mid 40s.

我們預計調整後的費用將在 3.35 億美元左右，效率比率在 40 左右。

Our near term common equity tier one ratio remains 11%.

我們的短期普通股一級資本比率仍為 11%。

With that, I'll turn it back to John for closing remarks.

說到這裡，我將把它轉回給約翰致結束語。

Thanks Neal.

謝謝尼爾。

I'm anticipating we'll receive questions on our priorities for capital allocation given the sharp increase in our capital ratios in the quarter.

鑑於本季我們的資本比率急劇上升，我預計我們將收到有關資本配置優先事項的問題。

While we continue to prioritize funding organic balance sheet growth and complementary tuck in acquisitions, our capacity to return capital to shareholders has increased since the second quarter and we will be prudent and proactive managers of capital.

雖然我們繼續優先考慮為資產負債表的有機成長和補充性收購提供資金，但自第二季以來，我們向股東返還資本的能力有所增強，我們將成為謹慎和積極主動的資本管理者。

We are well positioned to maintain our profitability profile.

我們有能力維持我們的獲利能力。

As Neal detailed, we have proactively managed our balance sheet over the past year to ensure stable net interest income in a declining interest rate environment, both in terms of managing our funding costs and tweaking the profile of our earning assets.

正如尼爾詳細介紹的那樣，我們在過去的一年中積極管理我們的資產負債表，以確保在利率下降的環境下穩定的淨利息收入，無論是在管理我們的融資成本還是調整我們的盈利資產方面。

We have capacity and capability to grow our balance sheet via a diversified mix of loan and deposit categories while at the same time, maintaining flexibility on capital allocation.

我們有能力透過多元化的貸款和存款類別來擴大資產負債表，同時保持資本配置的靈活性。

And our efficiency ratio remains among the best of our peers.

我們的效率仍然在同行中名列前茅。

We have retained superior profitability even as we invest in people, processes and technology.

即使我們對人員、流程和技術進行投資，我們仍然保持了卓越的獲利能力。

On the latter, over the last 24 months, we have made significant investments to strengthen our technology foundation including the modernization of our core banking platform, building advanced BSA AML competencies and heightening our cyber security and cloud capabilities.

對於後者，在過去 24 個月裡，我們進行了大量投資來加強我們的技術基礎，包括核心銀行平台的現代化、建立先進的 BSA AML 能力以及增強我們的網路安全和雲端能力。

Finally, I'd like to thank our colleagues for their continued effort.

最後，我要感謝我們的同事們的持續努力。

Their hard work is reflected in our performance this quarter, particularly in our strong deposit growth in favorable categories.

他們的辛勤工作體現在我們本季的業績中，特別是我們有利類別的存款強勁成長。

Thank you again for joining us today.

再次感謝您今天加入我們。

Operator, we will open the line to questions.

接線員，我們將開通提問線路。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥克格拉蒂，KBW。

Hey, good morning,

嘿，早安，

Good morning.

早安.

Maybe John and Neal, the actions you took with the balance sheet obviously set up for a better, more neutrally position balance sheet going into '25.

也許約翰和尼爾，你們對資產負債表採取的行動顯然是為了在 25 年建立更好、更中立的資產負債表。

How do we think about, I guess

我想我們如何思考

[trough NII].

[NII 谷]。

Is Q4 the trough?

Q4是低谷嗎？

How are you thinking about it given you freed up a little bit of space on the balance sheet?

鑑於您在資產負債表上釋放了一點空間，您對此有何看法？

Yeah, maybe I'll leave it there.

是的，也許我會把它留在那裡。

Yeah, so we came in at $336 million for the quarter.

是的，所以我們本季的營收為 3.36 億美元。

As you look at how we exited Q3, we're going to be holding a little bit more cash on the balance sheet, which in Q4, will have a slight drag in them.

當你看到我們如何退出第三季時，我們將在資產負債表上持有更多的現金，這在第四季度將對其產生輕微的拖累。

So we're kind of in the -- Q4, we going to be in $332 million range and -- having that exit velocity in the next year and then kind of staying right in that level in the '25, is how we think about them NIM.

所以我們在第四季度，我們將在 3.32 億美元的範圍內，並且在明年達到這樣的退出速度，然後在 25 年保持在這個水平，這就是我們的想法他們NIM。

So we think we're at a stable NIM.

所以我們認為我們的淨利差處於穩定狀態。

We may be plus or minus 3 basis points as we move forward, but that's the range we're looking at going forward in the '25.

隨著我們的前進，我們可能會正負 3 個基點，但這是我們在 25 年展望的範圍。

Okay.

好的。

Perfect.

完美的。

And then my follow up John, you alluded to the capital return flexibility.

然後我的後續約翰，你提到了資本回報的靈活性。

Could you maybe just rank order and also the timing, I wish you think you might be able to return more capital?

您能否只排序順序和時間，我希望您認為您可能能夠返還更多資本？

Yeah, I mean, I think we always talk about kind of prioritizing for organic balance sheet growth, thinking about doing things like we've done with Ametros and Interlink and

是的，我的意思是，我認為我們總是談論優先考慮有機資產負債表成長，考慮做一些事情，就像我們對 Ametros 和 Interlink 所做的那樣

[Bend].

[彎曲]。

And then obviously if there's no other productive use of capital, I do think given where we are and the fact that we do think with interest rates coming down that we should see an inflection point in credit as we get into this quarter in the first half of '25 that we're more likely to begin repurchases again.

顯然，如果沒有其他對資本的生產性利用，我確實認為，考慮到我們目前的處境以及我們確實認為隨著利率下降的事實，當我們進入本季度上半年時，我們應該會看到信貸拐點25年，我們更有可能再次開始回購。

Absent other organic opportunities to deploy that capital, Chris.

克里斯，缺乏其他有機機會來部署該資本。

So I think we're there.

所以我想我們已經到了。

We feel really good about our capital levels now and we have some more flexibility.

我們現在對我們的資本水平感覺非常好，並且我們有更多的靈活性。

So we're more likely than we were before in the next quarter or to begin share with purchases absent other uses of organic deployment.

因此，我們比以前更有可能在下個季度開始共享採購，而無需其他有機部署用途。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jared Shaw, Barclays.

賈里德·肖，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

Hey, Jared.

嘿，賈里德。

Looking at maybe loan growth as we exit '24 going into '25, how much additional attrition or headwind should we expect from CRE.

看看我們從 24 年退出到 25 年的貸款成長情況，我們預計 CRE 會帶來多少額外的消耗或阻力。

It sort of sounds like maybe not that much.

聽起來好像沒那麼多。

And should we expect or anticipate that maybe the overall loan growth rate starts to accelerate as we exit the year going into '25?

我們是否應該預期或預計，隨著我們進入 25 年，整體貸款成長率可能會開始加速？

Yeah, I mean, it's a great question, right?

是的，我的意思是，這是一個很好的問題，對吧？

Loan growth has clearly been muted for the industry in the last couple of quarters.

過去幾個季度，該行業的貸款成長明顯放緩。

We did have a really good quarter, you know, many core C&I categories and I will say that that sort of pull through has continued early on in this quarter.

我們確實度過了一個非常好的季度，你知道，許多核心 C&I 類別，我想說，這種拉動在本季度初期一直在持續。

Although we know that the fourth quarter is also subject to significant prepays and there's a lot of activity particularly on transactional sponsor and specialty deals.

儘管我們知道第四季度也需要大量預付款，並且有很多活動，特別是在交易贊助商和特殊交易方面。

So that's why we didn't really change our guidance for the fourth quarter.

這就是為什麼我們沒有真正改變第四季的指導。

I think you've heard me say, for 10 years or so, we've been able to kind of grow commercial categories in the high single digits to around 10%.

我想你已經聽過我說過，在 10 年左右的時間裡，我們已經能夠將商業類別的成長率以較高的個位數成長到 10% 左右。

I think right now, our view of '25 Jared is that, you know, we see there's continued kind of modest loan demand.

我認為現在，我們對 25 Jared 的看法是，我們看到貸款需求持續溫和。

So I think right now, when we think about next year as a 5% kind of loan growth.

所以我現在認為，當我們考慮明年貸款成長 5% 時。

We're going to give formal '25 guidance when we get into the January call.

當我們進入 1 月的電話會議時，我們將提供正式的 '25 指導。

Could we outperform that?

我們能超越它嗎？

Sure.

當然。

I think I've always said, I think we can kind of form at or better than whatever the market allows.

我想我一直在說，我認為我們可以以比市場允許的任何形式更好的形式。

But I think if you read what others are saying and we look kind of at activity, I think '25 you know, may not be a blowout year but be more modest and similar to this year with respect to loan growth.

但我認為，如果你讀過其他人的言論，並且我們關註一下活動，我認為“25 年，你知道，可能不是井噴年，但在貸款增長方面會更加溫和，與今年相似。”

With respect to your question about mix and commercial real estate, obviously we're really pleased this quarter, and I think there's a bit of a template there for us.

關於您有關混合和商業房地產的問題，顯然我們對本季度感到非常滿意，我認為我們有一些模板。

We had significant organic prepayments which I know many others in the industry have reported over the last couple of quarters in CRE.

我們有大量的有機預付款，據我所知，業內許多其他人在過去幾季的 CRE 中都報告了這一情況。

And then we did this securitization which actually was economically beneficial to us in terms of the gain on the transaction.

然後我們進行了證券化，就交易收益而言，這實際上對我們來說是經濟上有利的。

And we look at that not as just trying to drive down CRE balances as much as we can, but it gives us capacity to support our really good clients and in full relationships.

我們認為這不僅僅是試圖盡可能地降低商業房地產餘額，而且它使我們有能力支持我們真正優秀的客戶並建立全面的關係。

We're really good at it.

我們真的很擅長。

And so you will see some level of origination there.

所以你會在那裡看到某種程度的起源。

And then at the end of the day, as we grow our capital base and we grow our other C&I classes, you'll see either flat to modest growth overall in CRE with our ability to maybe exit non strategic CRE relationships.

最終，隨著我們資本基礎的擴大以及其他 C&I 類別的發展，您將看到 CRE 整體持平或適度成長，同時我們可能有能力退出非策略性 CRE 關係。

But I think we showed this quarter, we can still grow loans at market while not relying on outsized CRE growth.

但我認為我們本季的表現表明，我們仍然可以在市場上增加貸款，同時不依賴商業房地產的大幅成長。

That's great color.

那顏色真棒。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then maybe for my follow up on the deposit side, you know, really good trends there.

然後也許是我在存款方面的後續行動，你知道，那裡的趨勢非常好。

You know, as we're entering the enrollment season, what are your thoughts on maybe (technical difficulty) What do you think that.

你知道，隨著我們進入招生季節，你對也許（技術難度）你有什麼想法。

There could be some pressures or opportunity?

可能有一些壓力或機會？

Oh, hello.

哦，你好。

Hey, Jared.

嘿，賈里德。

It's Luis.

是路易斯。

So we do see -- we've seen pretty good early indicators that the enrollment season is going to be as good as we've seen in the recent couple of years.

所以我們確實看到——我們已經看到了相當好的早期跡象，表明招生季節將像我們最近幾年看到的那樣好。

So we've made a fair amount of investments in a bunch of client facing technology.

因此，我們在一系列面向客戶的技術上進行了大量投資。

We launched the new investment management platform that you may have seen.

我們推出了您可能已經看到的新投資管理平台。

We rolled out earlier this year.

我們今年早些時候推出了。

And so we feel very good about the investments and how we positioned the -- and continue to position the HSA business.

因此，我們對這些投資以及我們如何定位並繼續定位 HSA 業務感到非常滿意。

And we think that you're going to see similar to slightly, more faster deposit growth in 2025 relative to what we saw this year.

我們認為，與今年相比，2025 年存款成長將略有加速。

So we feel good about where HSA is today.

因此，我們對 HSA 今天的狀況感到滿意。

And Jared, as we usually do in January, we'll be able to give you a kind of a first look at new business and what we anticipate and then obviously at the end of the first quarter, we kind of can final tally what's come in.

賈里德，正如我們通常在一月份所做的那樣，我們將能夠讓您初步了解新業務和我們的預期，然後顯然在第一季末，我們可以最終統計即將發生的情況。

But I agree with Luis.

但我同意路易斯的觀點。

I think it was a good selling season for HSA.

我認為對於 HSA 來說這是一個很好的銷售季節。

Great, thanks a lot.

太好了，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mark Fitzgibbon, Piper Sandler.

馬克·菲茨吉本，派珀·桑德勒。

Hey guys, good morning.

嘿夥計們，早安。

Hey, Mark.

嘿，馬克。

John, the Real Deal published an article late last week suggesting that you guys have two large office loans in New Jersey that are in default to the tune of about $140 million.

John, the Real Deal 上週晚些時候發表了一篇文章，暗示你們在新澤西州有兩筆巨額辦公貸款違約，金額約為 1.4 億美元。

I guess I'm wondering, are these on non-accrual in the third quarter?

我想我想知道，這些在第三季是非應計的嗎？

And do you have any specific reserves against them?

你們有針對他們的具體儲備嗎？

Thanks for the for the question, Mark.

謝謝你的提問，馬克。

Yeah, so both of those loans -- and let me make a couple comments.

是的，這兩筆貸款——讓我發表幾點評論。

Obviously with a $52 billion loan book, we don't generally comment on specific relationships, single point exposures, litigation and so on and so forth.

顯然，對於 520 億美元的貸款帳簿，我們通常不會對特定關係、單點風險、訴訟等發表評論。

But obviously this has become a bit public.

但顯然這已經變得有點公開了。

So what I will tell you is the high highlight numbers there are significantly overstate Webster's exposure.

所以我要告訴你的是，高亮數字明顯誇大了韋伯斯特的曝光度。

Those were two loans originated pre-merger.

這是合併前產生的兩筆貸款。

One has a Webster exposure under $45 million.

其中一個在韋伯斯特的曝光度低於 4500 萬美元。

The other one is Webster exposure under $25 million.

另一項是韋伯斯特曝光低於 2500 萬美元。

Both of those loans are on non-accrual at the end of the third quarter.

截至第三季末，這兩筆貸款均為非應計貸款。

Both of those loans have obviously been reviewed and there have been the appropriate charge offs and specific reserves put against those loans.

這兩筆貸款顯然都經過了審查，並且對這些貸款進行了適當的沖銷和特定準備金。

As I mentioned in my early comments, two office loans drove the significant or not that what the increase was in non-performers in the quarter, those were the two loans.

正如我在早期評論中提到的，兩筆辦公貸款對本季不良貸款的成長起到了重要或無關的推動作用，這就是兩筆貸款。

And, we took charge off that contributed to the overall $36 million charge in the quarter.

而且，我們取消了該季度 3,600 萬美元總費用的費用。

So that's what I'll tell you.

這就是我要告訴你的。

Office charge-offs were 55% of the charge-offs in our quarter.

辦公室沖銷佔本季沖銷的 55%。

So you can kind of triangulate from there.

所以你可以從那裡進行三角測量。

But we're pretty good about making sure that we are proactively managing things that things go nonperformer when they're supposed to go, and taking charges that we're supposed to take.

但我們非常擅長確保我們積極主動地管理那些在應該進行時表現不佳的事情，並承擔我們應該承擔的費用。

And so the good thing about being a company our size right now is we've got significant earnings power.

因此，作為目前這樣規模的公司，好處是我們擁有強大的獲利能力。

We've got a very high loan loss reserve compared to our pure median.

與我們的純中位數相比，我們的貸款損失準備金非常高。

And so this quarter, it really didn't have an impact on our overall financial performance.

因此，本季度，它確實對我們的整體財務表現沒有產生影響。

And we feel pretty good that we've got enough reserves in not only those two loans but in our overall free portfolio that we continue to work down, to not have there be a material financial impact as we move forward.

我們感覺非常好，因為我們不僅在這兩筆貸款中，而且在我們繼續努力的整體自由投資組合中都有足夠的準備金，以免在我們前進的過程中產生重大的財務影響。

Okay.

好的。

That's great.

那太棒了。

And then just as a follow up, John.

然後作為後續行動，約翰。

You guys have done a great job shrinking the office book.

你們在縮小辦公室書籍方面做得很好。

I guess I wondered if you could share with us what the reserve on the office portfolio is right now?

我想我想知道您是否可以與我們分享目前辦公室投資組合的儲備是多少？

Yeah, I think it's up 6%, Mark.

是的，我認為上漲了 6%，馬克。

I'll give you -- again, I'll repeat what I said Jason had talked to me when the portfolio was a billion dollars a quarter or so ago.

我會再告訴你，我會重複一個季度左右前傑森與我說過的話，當時投資組合為 10 億美元。

You know, we talked about there being about a third of that, which is kind of hand-to-hand combat that we're working through these two credits that I just referenced, and you asked about.

你知道，我們談到了大約有三分之一，這是一種肉搏戰，我們正在處理我剛才提到的這兩個作品，你也問過。

We are obviously in that kind of third of difficult working through.

顯然我們正處於困難的第三階段。

We've got about a third of the portfolio that we don't worry about, that's highly leased that have long dated maturities and then the stuff in the middle, we continue to kind of just actively manage and we think we've got enough second and tertiary support as well as in place leases to kind of work through.

我們擁有大約三分之一的投資組合，我們不擔心，這些投資組合的租賃期很長，期限很長，然後是中間的東西，我們繼續積極管理，我們認為我們已經足夠了第二和第三級支援以及到位的租賃以完成工作。

So when you think about 6% on the overall $917 million that's left, remember, there are some specific reserves as well and when you think about the reserving, we feel comfortable about it because it's really against that one-third of the portfolio, that's most problematic for us.

因此，當你考慮剩下的9.17 億美元總額中的6% 時，請記住，還有一些特定的準備金，當你考慮準備金時，我們對此感到放心，因為它確實與投資組合的三分之一相對，那就是對我們來說最成問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mark

標記

Matthew Breese, Stephens.

馬修·布里斯，史蒂芬斯。

Hey, good morning, everybody.

嘿，大家早安。

And I was hoping you could talk a little bit about expectations around loan and deposit betas over the next year or so.

我希望你能談談對未來一年左右的貸款和存款貝塔值的預期。

Whether you've had any early success tweaking and lowering deposit costs.

您是否在調整和降低存款成本方面取得了早期成功。

If so where?

如果是的話在哪裡？

And then the other side of the coin is just given over the quarters, you've reduced asset sensitivity, whether or not you think full cycle loan beta will match what we've seen during the hiking cycle, which was kind of the low 50% range.

然後硬幣的另一面就在幾個季度中給出，您已經降低了資產敏感性，無論您是否認為全週期貸款貝塔值將與我們在加息週期中看到的情況相匹配，即 50 低點％ 範圍。

Yeah, I'll jump in there.

是的，我會跳進去。

I think obviously we had our first cut in the cycle of 50 basis points and we took pretty quick action on the deposit portfolio and we repriced down $27 billion-$28 billion of that portfolio about of our deposit portfolio at about a 60% beta.

我認為顯然我們在 50 個基點的周期中進行了第一次降息，我們對存款組合採取了相當快的行動，我們以大約 60% 的貝塔值重新定價了存款組合的 270 億至 280 億美元。

So it's kind of $16 billion at 100% beta or if you look at our total book about 25% beta so far, is -- our interlink deposits basically 100% almost immediate beta and those are over $7 billion.

因此，以100% 貝塔值計算，相當於160 億美元，或者如果你看一下我們迄今為止貝塔值約為25% 的總帳面，我們的互聯存款基本上是100% 幾乎立即貝塔值，超過70億美元。

We saw some nice pricing down in our commercial deposit portfolio now, 60% beta so far on our online portfolio with Brio.

我們現在看到我們的商業存款投資組合的價格出現了一些不錯的下降，到目前為止，我們與 Brio 的線上投資組合的貝塔值已經下降了 60%。

And then a bunch of different moves on our consumer portfolio through the first cut.

然後，透過第一次削減，我們的消費者組合採取了一系列不同的措施。

So, so we're feeling pretty good there.

所以，我們在那裡感覺很好。

As you take a step back and look at our overall portfolio, within the next year, we expect approximately $30 billion of our loans and securities and cash to reprice.

當你退後一步看看我們的整體投資組合時，我們預計明年內大約 300 億美元的貸款、證券和現金將重新定價。

That's $28 billion in loans and a $1billion dollars in security.

其中包括 280 億美元的貸款和 10 億美元的擔保。

So our securities book is fixed and long with less than a billion out of our $17 billion portfolio there variable.

因此，我們的證券帳簿是固定的，多頭的，我們 170 億美元的投資組合中只有不到 10 億是可變的。

So we kind of look at that as the repricing side on the loans.

因此，我們將其視為貸款的重新定價方面。

And if you flip to the deposit side in the first five quarters of the up cycle with a 34% beta.

如果你在上行週期的前五個季度轉向存款方面，貝塔值為 34%。

And we're anticipating approximately 30 -- beta of 30 in the first five quarters down.

我們預計前五個季度的貝塔值將下降約 30 倍，即 30 倍。

And if you think about a 30% beta on a $65 billion portfolio, you do the quick math there.

如果您考慮 650 億美元投資組合的 30% 貝塔值，您可以快速計算一下。

That's about $19 billion to $20 billion at 100% beta.

在 100% 貝塔值下，這一數字約為 190 億至 200 億美元。

We have short borrowings, $3 billion and $4 billion will mature this quarter.

我們有短期借款，30 億美元和 40 億美元將在本季到期。

And next, we've got a $5 billion hedge portfolio that helps support our current positioning.

接下來，我們有一個 50 億美元的對沖投資組合，有助於支持我們目前的定位。

And then there's another large factor for us is that we have approximately $5 billion of fixed rate securities that mature and churn annually.

對我們來說，另一個重要因素是我們每年有大約 50 億美元的固定利率證券到期和流失。

And those are anticipated to roll over, roll off at about 4% and roll back on with new originations in the 6% range.

這些預計會滾動，以大約 4% 的速度滾動，並以 6% 的範圍內的新起點重新滾動。

So the 200 basis points or so up.

所以漲了200個基點左右。

So when you kind of put all that together, we have a pretty well balanced position going into next year.

因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們明年的處境相當平衡。

And as you can see in our model results, a very neutral positioning despite us having a fairly large portion of variable rate load.

正如您在我們的模型結果中看到的，儘管我們有相當大一部分可變速率負載，但定位非常中立。

So a long answer there, but I know it's an important topic and I think that the team has done a really good job positioning us for this down rate environment.

答案很長，但我知道這是一個重要的主題，我認為團隊在這種降價環境中為我們定位做得非常好。

I appreciate all that.

我很感激這一切。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And the follow up is just on expenses, expectations around expense growth over the next year or so.

後續僅關注支出以及對未來一年左右支出成長的預期。

Specifically, it relates to preparation for $100 billion.

具體來說，它涉及1000億美元的準備工作。

Should we expect any acceleration in the coming quarters or year in expense growth as you get ready for this?

當您為此做好準備時，我們是否應該預期未來幾季或一年的費用成長會加速？

And what areas do you expect to address as you kind of beef out infrastructure?

當您加強基礎建設時，您希望解決哪些領域的問題？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Matt.

馬特。

Thank you for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

And this may leave you a little wanting for more.

這可能會讓你有點想要更多。

But as we said we're finishing up right now with PWC, our GAAP analysis and our plan for our March to category four.

但正如我們所說，我們現在正在完成普華永道、我們的 GAAP 分析以及我們 3 月進入第四類的計劃。

I always remind you that we're 3- to 4 years away from an organic growth perspective in hitting the $100 billion category.

我總是提醒大家，我們距離達到 1,000 億美元類別的有機成長目標還有 3 到 4 年的時間。

And as we mentioned before, there will be additional expense for us to get there in terms of hiring people and building out reporting capabilities and technology and obviously the expense of

正如我們之前提到的，為了實現這一目標，我們在招募人員、建立報告能力和技術方面將需要額外的費用，顯然，

[T-LAC].

[T-LAC]。

And we're going through right now, kind of the cadence of running that through.

我們現在正在經歷，有點像是貫穿這一點的節奏。

And our plan is, as I mentioned in the last quarter that in January, when we give our '25 guidance, that will include kind of our fully loaded assumptions about what that means for expenses.

正如我在上個季度提到的，我們的計劃是，當我們在一月份給出 25 年指導時，將包括我們對這對費用意味著什麼的全面假設。

I also remind you that we have the 3- to 4 years to spread those expenses out.

我還提醒您，我們有 3 到 4 年的時間來分攤這些費用。

And you heard Neal mentioned earlier, for example, that we took some charges on severance and reorganization in the quarter and a lot of those moves in terms of exiting non-core businesses in looking at our organization will free up dollars to invest.

例如，您之前聽到尼爾提到，我們在本季度收取了一些遣散費和重組費用，並且在退出非核心業務以審視我們的組織方面的許多舉措將釋放資金進行投資。

So as we move forward, you're going to get the answer to the question in January in our '25 guidance.

因此，隨著我們前進，您將在 1 月的 25 指南中找到問題的答案。

We think that will put additional pressure on our expenses, but it won't be material.

我們認為這會對我們的開支造成額外的壓力，但這不會是實質的。

We still feel very confident in our ability to do deliver outsized returns as we go through this process.

在經歷這個過程時，我們仍然對自己提供巨額回報的能力充滿信心。

And so, Neal, I don't know if you want to put a little bit of more flavor around that.

所以，尼爾，我不知道你是否想對此多加一點趣味。

But.

但。

Yeah, I think you said that well, John.

是的，我認為你說得很好，約翰。

One of my initial concerns coming into the organization was, hey, we're running at a 45% efficiency ratio.

我進入組織最初擔心的問題之一是，嘿，我們的效率是 45%。

Are there really opportunities to find more efficiency?

真的有機會提高效率嗎？

And as John mentioned, the team has done a nice job putting together a small program.

正如約翰所提到的，團隊在建立一個小程式方面做得很好。

And with the restructuring charges we took this quarter, we expect our expense run rate next year to drop $17 million which won't flow all to the bottom line.

考慮到本季我們收取的重組費用，我們預計明年的費用運行率將下降 1700 萬美元，這不會全部流入利潤。

We'll use some of those dollars to reinvest and prepare for category four.

我們將使用其中一些資金進行再投資並為第四類做好準備。

So I think it's an example of how we can continue to find efficiencies to pave our way to that requirement.

所以我認為這是一個例子，說明我們如何繼續提高效率，為滿足這項要求鋪平道路。

And as John mentioned, we'll talk about specific numbers in Q1.

正如約翰所提到的，我們將討論第一季的具體數字。

But you know, if you take a step back, we have a expense base, that's just over $1.3 billion.

但你知道，如果你退後一步，我們的支出基礎剛好超過 13 億美元。

So 1% of that is $13 million.

所以其中 1% 就是 1300 萬美元。

If you add a percent to our expense growth rate over the next four years that probably hits a good chunk of what we need to build.

如果您在未來四年內將我們的費用成長率增加一個百分點，這可能會滿足我們需要建造的很大一部分。

I'm not saying that that's what's going to happen, but just kind of highlighting that it should be some incremental around the edges on the expense side versus a kind of a big pop up of one time expenses, is the current view.

我並不是說這就是將會發生的事情，只是強調當前的觀點是，它應該在費用方面的邊緣有所增加，而不是一次性費用的大幅增加。

But as John mentioned, we're not fully through the analysis on preparation and we're making good progress there and we'll give more details in Q1.

但正如約翰所提到的，我們還沒有完全完成對準備工作的分析，我們在這方面取得了良好的進展，我們將在第一季提供更多細節。

I appreciate all that.

我很感激這一切。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That's all I have.

這就是我所擁有的一切。

Thank you, Matt.

謝謝你，馬特。

Daniel Tamayo, Raymond James.

丹尼爾·塔馬約，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

I guess first, just a follow up on the credit side.

我想首先，只是信用方面的後續行動。

John, I think you mentioned an inflection in credit could lead to the possibility for increased repurchases going forward.

約翰，我想你提到信貸的變化可能會導致未來增加回購的可能性。

But how should we think about that?

但我們該如何思考這個問題呢？

Do you think that that non-accruals are at or nearing a peak here?

您認為非應計費用是否已達到或接近高峰？

Obviously, there's some uncertainty with how the whole office loan environment plays out.

顯然，整個辦公室貸款環境的發展存在一些不確定性。

But, just curious how we should be thinking about those non-accrual, and kind of early-stage credit levels and how that plays into your thinking on net charge offs as well.

但是，只是好奇我們應該如何考慮那些非應計的、早期的信用水平，以及這如何影響您對淨沖銷的思考。

Yeah, it's a terrific question, and one that I loathe answering just because it's difficult to predict.

是的，這是一個很棒的問題，我討厭回答這個問題，因為它很難預測。

You know, we mentioned last quarter that this quarter would be less worse.

你知道，我們上個季度提到這個季度的情況會好一些。

If you were and it was -- we were marginally less worse.

如果你是，而且確實是——我們的情況稍微好一點。

We've been through the entire portfolio.

我們已經瀏覽了整個投資組合。

We are getting to a point where I think we've identified obviously all proactively all the real issues in the portfolio that we go through.

我認為我們已經到了這樣一個地步：我們顯然已經主動識別了我們所經歷的投資組合中的所有真正問題。

And I again remind everybody that if you look at our absolute statistics, they're kind of still in line with pre pandemic statistics.

我再次提醒大家，如果你看看我們的絕對統計數據，它們仍然與疫情大流行前的統計數據一致。

So I know a lot of CEOs are saying, we're trying to remind everybody that this hasn't been a cratering of credit.

所以我知道很多執行長都在說，我們試著提醒大家，這並不是信用崩潰。

It's been sort of a return to normalcy on credit.

這有點像信貸迴歸常態。

Our hope right now and what we're looking at is, we've got interest rates coming down.

我們現在的希望和我們正在關注的是，我們的利率將會下降。

We've already seen an increase in commercial real estate refinancing activity based on the behavior of the five year, and the forward curve.

根據五年和遠期曲線的表現，我們已經看到商業房地產再融資活動增加。

And so as interest rates come down, if the Fed navigates this soft landing, I do think that we should see running through bank P&Ls and bank balance sheets, an inflection point in credit, certainly in the first half of '25.

因此，隨著利率下降，如果聯準會實現軟著陸，我確實認為我們應該看到銀行損益表和銀行資產負債表的變化，這是信貸的拐點，當然是在 25 年上半年。

It's tough to call a particular quarter.

很難確定具體的季度。

We have seen some negative risk rating migration.

我們看到了一些負面風險評級的遷移。

We've been pleased that migration has not continued to result in higher levels of annualized charge offs.

我們很高興遷移並沒有繼續導致更高水準的年度沖銷。

And so it would be difficult for me to say, hey, we think 4Q is the bottom.

所以我很難說，嘿，我們認為第四季是底部。

But I do think all the macro factors and our understanding of our portfolio that the first half of '25 we should start to see kind of absolute improvement in the balance sheet.

但我確實認為，所有宏觀因素以及我們對投資組合的理解，25 年上半年我們應該會開始看到資產負債表的絕對改善。

And obviously, we have a forward look based on where we're trading.

顯然，我們根據我們的交易地點進行前瞻性展望。

If you're asking the question with respect to capital allocation and return of capital, we've got lots of earnings, we've got really good reserves.

如果你問的是有關資本配置和資本回報的問題，我們有很多收益，我們有非常好的儲備。

So, you know, we'll put that all into the box and decide whether or not in the fourth quarter we start buybacks or whether or not that's the first half of '25 activity.

所以，你知道，我們將把所有這些都放進盒子裡，並決定是否在第四季度開始回購，或者是否是 25 年上半年的活動。

Okay.

好的。

Terrific.

了不起。

Thanks for all that color.

感謝所有這些顏色。

And then changing gears.

然後換檔。

Here just looking at loan growth side.

這裡只關注貸款成長方面。

You talked about how the fourth quarter could be impacted by some slower perhaps C&I and sponsor with the headwinds, you mentioned specifically prepayments.

您談到了第四季度可能會受到一些可能較慢的工商業和贊助商不利因素的影響，您特別提到了預付款。

But just curious, the pace of growth in the third quarter, what you saw there, if that picked up near the end of the quarter, if it was relatively steady.

但只是好奇，第三季的成長速度，你在那裡看到的情況，是否在季度末有所回升，是否相對穩定。

And then just also curious on the residential side, expectations for how much you're going to be adding to the portfolio relative to the other side of the house.

然後對住宅方面也很好奇，相對於房子的另一邊，您將在投資組合中增加多少的期望。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Our primary focus is continuing to grow a myriad of C&I categories.

我們的主要重點是繼續發展無數的 C&I 類別。

I would say that the loan behaviors in the third quarter, interest in that 1.3% growth.

我想說的是，第三季的貸款行為、利息增加了1.3%。

If you take out the securitization, it was sort of more back ended if you will in the quarter, which gives us some momentum on NII as we go into Q4.

如果你去掉證券化，那麼在本季度，它會更加後端化，這在我們進入第四季度時為我們的 NII 提供了一些動力。

And as I said, we've continued to see pull through in the early in the fourth quarter.

正如我所說，我們在第四季初繼續看到了成長。

The reason we didn't up the guidance is because we know there's a lot of activity both on origination and pre payments in the quarter.

我們沒有上調指導的原因是我們知道本季在發起和預付款方面都有很多活動。

And we don't really have full visibility yet.

而且我們還沒有真正完全了解。

I think, we still have pressure on our sponsor and specialty business from the proliferation of private credit.

我認為，私人信貸的激增給我們的贊助商和專業業務帶來了壓力。

We're going to have our asset manager program hopefully up and running in the first quarter which should give us some additional momentum there.

我們的資產管理計劃預計將在第一季啟動並運行，這應該會給我們帶來一些額外的動力。

Our middle market perform well.

我們的中間市場表現良好。

Our public sector finance perform well.

我們的公共部門財政表現良好。

You know, we've got other levers to pull in asset based lending and in equipment finance.

你知道，我們還有其他槓桿來吸引資產貸款和設備融資。

So I think with our portfolio, we'll continue to be able to grow C&I categories, you'll probably see some level as Neal mentioned of modest growth in commercial real estate because right now if you're good at it and you can get really nice risk reward because there are fewer players in the market.

因此，我認為透過我們的投資組合，我們將能夠繼續增長工商業類別，您可能會看到尼爾提到的商業房地產適度增長的一定程度，因為現在如果您擅長於此，您可以獲得確實不錯的風險回報，因為市場上的參與者較少。

And then I think we'll sort of fill in with our mortgage originations, obviously serving our customers in our market and then some level of correspondent mortgage origination.

然後我認為我們會填寫我們的抵押貸款發放，顯然是為我們市場上的客戶提供服務，然後是某種程度的相應抵押貸款發放。

So I would say it's balanced and an unbalanced.

所以我會說它是平衡的和不平衡的。

You know, we still think that kind of 5%, if 5%-ish annualized loan growth is the right number.

你知道，我們仍然認為 5%（如果 5% 左右）的年化貸款成長率是正確的數字。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks for all that color.

感謝所有這些顏色。

Bernard Gizycki, Deutsche Bank.

伯納德‧吉茲茨基，德意志銀行。

Hey guys, good morning.

嘿夥計們，早安。

So on page 6 of the deck, you noted that you've identified and documented certain loans eligible to optimize RWI treatment.

因此，在該套牌的第 6 頁上，您注意到您已確定並記錄了某些符合優化 RWI 處理資格的貸款。

And I know you've been talking about this on the call, but just to elaborate a bit more on these actions.

我知道您在電話會議上一直在談論這一點，但只是為了詳細說明這些行動。

And if you could size how big this was to the capital improvement during the quarter.

如果你能估量一下這對本季資本改善的影響有多大。

Yeah, so I think all of our actions in total were about 44 basis points for the quarter.

是的，所以我認為本季我們所有的行動總計約為 44 個基點。

We really went in and did deep dives into our multifamily lender finance and public sector portfolios and looked at the risk weighting.

我們確實深入研究了我們的多戶貸方融資和公共部門投資組合，並研究了風險權重。

And I'll give you an example.

我給你舉個例子。

In the public sector, we had a lot of loans sitting at 100% risk waiting and general obligation bonds could be at 20% in revenue pledge at 50%.

在公部門，我們有許多貸款處於 100% 的風險等待狀態，一般義務債券的風險等待率為 20%，收入承諾為 50%。

So we did a lot of work to pull additional data and really optimize our risk waiting there.

因此，我們做了很多工作來獲取更多數據，並真正優化我們在那裡等待的風險。

That's one example across the categories.

這是各個類別的一個例子。

So, hopefully that and then -- as we mentioned, the securitization also helped drive increased capital levels and that was about 6 basis points, included in that 44 basis points that I just mentioned.

因此，希望如此，然後 - 正如我們所提到的，證券化也有助於推動資本水準的增加，大約是 6 個基點，包括我剛才提到的 44 個基點。

Okay.

好的。

Yeah, that's helpful.

是的，這很有幫助。

So, and then on expenses obviously with technology, you basically highlighted you've been making significant investments in the tech stack, modernizing the core banking platform, the BSA ML cyber security cloud capabilities.

因此，在技術支出方面，您基本上強調了您一直在技術堆疊、現代化核心銀行平台、BSA ML 網路安全雲功能方面進行了大量投資。

During the quarter you also highlighted the tech spend increase sequentially, commercial services and occupancy costs.

在本季度，您也強調了技術支出、商業服務和占用成本的環比成長。

Could you just provide some color on those for the quarter on the tech professional and occupancy,

您能否提供一些有關本季技術專業人員和入住率的資訊？

Specific, Bernard, your question being like specific expenses related to those initiatives for the quarter?

具體，伯納德，你的問題是與本季這些措施相關的具體費用？

Yeah.

是的。

Because we don't really think about it that way.

因為我們並沒有真正那樣思考。

I think that this is -- every year we look at a rolling three year technology road map and investment initiatives and everything that you highlighted there and that we've highlighted in the specific items that you're talking about are part of no long-term strategy that we've been deploying.

我認為，每年我們都會查看滾動的三年技術路線圖和投資計劃，以及您在其中強調的所有內容以及我們在您談論的具體項目中強調的所有內容都是長期的一部分-我們一直在部署的術語策略。

So there's nothing really new there that we would isolate as something that's going to be recurring long term in nature.

因此，沒有什麼真正新的東西可以被我們隔離為在自然界中長期重複出現的東西。

Neal alluded to what we expect expense expenses are going to be and kind of what the progression of those are going to be in the 2025.

Neal 提到了我們預計的費用支出以及 2025 年支出的進展。

And that estimate of projection includes everything that we think is going to be required to continue to modernize the tech stack, build out the tech stack, invest in the various business funds, invest in risk management platforms.

預測的估計包括我們認為繼續實現技術堆疊現代化、建立技術堆疊、投資各種商業基金、投資風險管理平台所需的一切。

And so it's all inclusive and we provide that guidance for 2025, we don't envision that there's going to be any outsized tech spend in 2025 relative to what you've seen this year.

因此，它是包容性的，我們為 2025 年提供了指導，我們預計 2025 年不會有任何與今年相比規模過大的技術支出。

So we feel -- again, we feel pretty good about what our long term technology road map is and we have a clear path to making the investments in specific areas to support client experience while at the same time building out risk and operating platforms.

因此，我們再次感到，我們對我們的長期技術路線圖感到非常滿意，並且我們有一條明確的道路，可以在特定領域進行投資以支援客戶體驗，同時建立風險和營運平台。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Thanks, Bernard.

謝謝，伯納德。

Laurie Hunsicker, Seaport.

勞裡·漢斯克，海港。

Yeah.

是的。

Hi, good morning, gentlemen and Neal welcome.

嗨，早安，先生們，歡迎尼爾。

Just to go back to office here and certainly appreciate office is only 2% of your book.

回到這裡的辦公室，你會發現辦公室只佔你書的 2%。

And you've been very proactive and transparent, but on your $54 million of loan loss provisions that you took this quarter, how much of that was office?

你們一直非常主動和透明，但在本季度提取的 5400 萬美元貸款損失準備金中，有多少是辦公室的？

And then of the two loans that are new and non-performing that $45 million and $25 million, can you help us think a little bit about what is the occupancy, what's the new debt service there and then specific reserves on those two loans?

那麼，在 4500 萬美元和 2500 萬美元的兩筆不良貸款中，您能否幫助我們思考一下佔用率、新的債務償還額以及這兩筆貸款的具體準備金是多少？

You know, certainly under the backdrop that you gave Mark office reserves for 6% or $55 million basically.

你知道，當然是在你給馬克辦公室儲備金 6% 或基本上 5500 萬美元的背景下。

Of your $55 million, what are the specific reserves on those two loans?

在您的 5500 萬美元中，這兩筆貸款的具體準備金是多少？

And then just sort of final question here on office.

然後是關於辦公室的最後一個問題。

And specifically that $45 million exposure, that bank we just filed, they're a part of it.

特別是我們剛提交的那家銀行的 4500 萬美元風險敞口，他們是其中的一部分。

And you guys, it looks like we're the lead i.e., Sterling was the lead.

你們，看起來我們是領先者，也就是說，史特林是領先者。

Can you just help us think about, again, this is just for the bank well filing, that there was a refresh property appraisal done in April at $105 million.

您能否幫我們再想想，這只是銀行備案，4 月進行了更新的房產評估，估價為 1.05 億美元。

And then five months later, that property is now worth $36 million.

五個月後，該房產現在價值 3,600 萬美元。

So if you could just help us think through any parts of that, that would be really helpful.

因此，如果您能幫助我們思考其中的任何部分，那將非常有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah, Laurie.

是的，勞裡。

I don't think -- first of all, I don't have all of that information and I don't think I can give you very good answers there.

我不認為——首先，我沒有所有這些信息，而且我認為我不能給你很好的答案。

I mean, I'll tell you with respect to [Cecil] and the provisioning for the quarter, there's so many in and out, right?

我的意思是，我會告訴你關於[塞西爾]和本季度的準備金，有這麼多的進出，對吧？

That -- you can't identify the amount of the provision related to a specific credit or even to a specific portfolio because what you're doing is refreshing and updating your risk ratings along with your qualitative factors.

那 - 你無法確定與特定信貸甚至特定投資組合相關的撥備金額，因為你所做的是刷新和更新你的風險評級以及定性因素。

And you're coming up with a refreshed life of loan losses for a $52 billion portfolio.

您正在為 520 億美元的投資組合重新計算貸款損失。

So certainly, the amount of charge offs impacts what you provide, but it doesn't necessarily immediately correlate with where the charge off came from.

因此，當然，沖銷金額會影響您提供的服務，但它不一定與沖銷來源直接相關。

So I don't think I can draw a connection to those two loans to our provision.

因此，我認為我無法將這兩筆貸款與我們的條款聯繫起來。

I gave you the fact that the charge offs in the quarter, about 55% of the charge offs were related to office loans.

我向您提供的事實是，本季的沖銷中，大約 55% 的沖銷與辦公室貸款有關。

Those loans we mentioned being the largest drivers.

我們提到的那些貸款是最大的推動因素。

We actually had debt recovery in consumer, which offset our overall charge off a little bit.

實際上，我們已經收回了消費者的債務，這稍微抵消了我們的整體費用。

So, again, it's tough to draw those conclusions.

所以，再次強調，很難下這些結論。

I certainly don't have the in place that service coverage and LTVs on those two specific loans now.

我現在當然沒有就這兩項特定貸款提供服務覆蓋範圍和貸款價值比。

What I can tell you from the CEO seat is that if they're on non-accrual, it means that there's a question as to whether or not the underlying cash flows can repay the loan as agreed.

我可以從執行長的位置告訴你的是，如果他們是非應計的，這意味著存在一個問題，即基礎現金流能否按約定償還貸款。

So, we might be able to get you some of that off line with Emilyn and Jason, but I can't give you the specifics on those two transactions.

因此，我們也許可以幫助您了解艾米琳和傑森的一些情況，但我無法向您提供這兩筆交易的具體資訊。

We were the lead lender.

我們是主要貸款人。

You're correct.

你是對的。

It was, I think a 2019 or 2018 origination significantly pre-merger.

我認為這是 2019 年或 2018 年的起源，明顯是在合併前。

So, I can tell you that we were the agent on those two credits, and I think that's the information that I have available to me here, Laurie.

所以，我可以告訴你，我們是這兩件事的代理人，我想這就是我在這裡可以得到的訊息，勞裡。

Okay.

好的。

And then my follow up question just switching gears.

然後我的後續問題只是切換齒輪。

When in the quarter, did the securities restructuring occur?

證券重組發生在本季的什麼時候？

And then finally, do you have a September spot margin?

最後，你們有 9 月的現貨保證金嗎？

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I'll jump in with the September spot margin.

我將加入九月的現貨保證金。

September was a little bit lower.

9月的價格稍微低一些。

We were about 3.31%.

我們大約是3.31%。

Loans came down 8 basis points and the deposits, 2 basis points.

貸款下降8個基點，存款下降2個基點。

I'll caveat that by saying monthly NIM is a little bit more variable than quarterly NIM.

我要警告的是，每個月的淨利差比每季的淨利差變化要大一些。

I also say that September NIM really represents our repricing dynamics.

我還想說，9 月的 NIM 確實代表了我們的重新定價動態。

So far started moving down well before the Fed cuts and there's obviously some lag there with our deposits repricing later with the cut coming in the middle of the month.

到目前為止，早在聯準會降息之前就開始下降，而且隨著我們的存款在本月中旬降息，我們的存款重新定價顯然存在一些滯後。

We also started holding higher levels of cash in September.

我們也從九月開始持有更高水準的現金。

So since mid-September, as I mentioned before, we've taken significant action on our deposit costs that 25% be already.

因此，正如我之前提到的，自 9 月中旬以來，我們已經對存款成本採取了重大行動，存款成本已經降低了 25%。

And we are confident that our Q4 NIM will come in above our September spot number.

我們有信心第四季的淨利差將高於 9 月的現貨數字。

Yes, I think that's it.

是的，我想就是這樣。

And then the transaction there was kind of -- it happened throughout the quarter but probably weighted average more to the middle of the quarter.

然後那裡的交易有點——它發生在整個季度，但加權平均可能更多到季度中期。

Thank you, Laurie.

謝謝你，勞裡。

Samuel Varga, UBS.

塞繆爾·瓦爾加，瑞銀集團。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

I just wanted to go back to the securities book, and you commented on the roll-on yields being around 6% expected on the sort of the $5 billion of annual cash flows on that.

我只是想回到證券帳簿，您評論說，每年 50 億美元的現金流預計滾動收益率約為 6%。

Obviously, this quarter was $584 million.

顯然，本季為 5.84 億美元。

So can you just comment on why this quarter was lower?

那麼您能否評論一下為什麼本季較低？

Why you expect it to move higher over the next 12 months?

為什麼您預計未來 12 個月會走高？

Yeah, so my comment of that 6%, that was more a mix of loans and security.

是的，所以我對那 6% 的評論是，更多的是貸款和擔保的組合。

So kind of full fixed rate repricing.

完全固定利率重新定價。

To your point in this quarter, we added a billion dollars with $584 million.

就您而言，本季我們增加了 10 億美元，即 5.84 億美元。

I think we're modeling $540 million average for Q4, and our most recent purchase was kind of in between that $584 million and $540 million.

我認為我們正在為第四季度的平均金額設計 5.4 億美元，而我們最近的購買金額介於 5.84 億美元和 5.4 億美元之間。

So feeling good about our numbers there, but just to clarify that, that 6% of that plus 200 basis points was the repricing of our fixed securities and loans.

我們對那裡的數據感到滿意，但只是為了澄清這一點，其中 6% 加上 200 個基點是我們固定證券和貸款的重新定價。

So that's why the numbers a little bit higher there.

這就是為什麼那裡的數字有點高的原因。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks for the clarification on that.

感謝您對此的澄清。

And then on the Brio deposit base, you said the 60% beta.

然後，在 Brio 存款基礎上，您提到了 60% 的貝塔值。

Just to clarify as well, is that on the new production for this quarter, is that the overall book given the short duration of it that's already realized 60%.

還要澄清的是，就本季的新作品而言，鑑於其持續時間較短，整本書已經實現了 60%。

Yeah, the 60% on the overall portfolio.

是的，佔整體投資組合的 60%。

Okay.

好的。

And then in terms of new production, have you been able to get to near 100% or potentially over 100%?

那麼在新產量方面，你們是否能夠達到接近 100% 或可能超過 100% 的水平？

Yeah.

是的。

So I think before the cut to where we're priced now, we're down 30 basis points and 50 basis points for the cut.

因此，我認為在降價至目前的定價之前，我們將下調 30 個基點，並下調 50 個基點。

And we're actively monitoring for potential additional moves.

我們正在積極監控潛在的額外舉措。

We've done, I think that team has done a really nice job of balancing liquidity versus earnings, and we've been very prudent in our moves.

我們已經做到了，我認為該團隊在平衡流動性與收益方面做得非常好，而且我們的行動非常謹慎。

And you'll see more downward moves from us in the future as we've seen pretty good client reaction so far through the first cut that we've made.

未來你會看到我們更多的向下移動，因為到目前為止，透過我們所做的第一次削減，我們已經看到了相當好的客戶反應。

There's no real difference.

沒有什麼真正的區別。

The portfolio is one rate on the portfolio.

該投資組合是投資組合的一個利率。

So new dollars versus the existing portfolio, all -- it's not like there's diverse product pricing in there.

因此，新美元與現有投資組合相比，所有產品的定價並不多樣化。

So the way to think about it is one overall beta for the portfolio, which is existing deposits plus new deposits are all getting originated.

因此，考慮這個問題的方法是投資組合的一個整體貝塔值，即現有存款加上新存款都在產生。

It's essentially the same, the exact same yield.

本質上是一樣的，產量完全相同。

So the beta on both new and existing would be roughly the same.

因此，新的和現有的測試版將大致相同。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Sam.

謝謝你，山姆。

This concludes the question-and-answer session.

問答環節到此結束。

I'll turn the call to John Ciulla for closing remarks.

我將把電話轉給約翰‧丘拉 (John Ciulla)，讓其致閉幕詞。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

We appreciate everyone joining today and your continued interest in the company.

我們感謝今天加入的每個人以及您對公司的持續關注。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

We thank you for joining.

我們感謝您的加入。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。