Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. Welcome to Western Alliance Bank Corporation's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. You may also view the presentation today via webcast through the company's website at www.westernalliancebancorporation.com.

大家好。歡迎參加西部聯盟銀行公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。您也可以透過公司網站 www.westernalliancebancorporation.com 觀看今天的網路直播演示。

I would now like to turn the call over to Miles Pondelik, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Development. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將電話轉給投資者關係和企業發展總監 Miles Pondelik。請繼續。

Thank you, and welcome to Western Alliance Bank fourth Quarter 2024 conference call.

謝謝，歡迎參加西部聯盟銀行 2024 年第四季電話會議。

Our speakers today are Dale Gibbons, Interim CEO and CFO; Steve Curley, Chief Banking Officer for the National Business Lines; and Tim Bruckner, Chief Banking Officer for Regional Banking.

我們今天的演講者是臨時執行長兼財務長 Dale Gibbons；全國業務線首席銀行官史蒂夫‧科利 (Steve Curley)；以及區域銀行首席銀行官 Tim Bruckner）。

Before I hand the call over to Dale, please note that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, except as required by law, the company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

在我將電話交給戴爾之前，請注意，今天的演示包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險、不確定性和假設的影響，除非法律要求，否則公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

For a more complete discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's SEC filings, including the Form 8-K filed yesterday, which are available on the company's website.

有關可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的風險和不確定因素的更完整討論，請參閱該公司的美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件，包括昨天提交的 8-K 表格，該文件可在公司網站上查閱。

Now for opening remarks, I'd like to turn the call over to Dale Gibbons.

現在，我想將開場發言權交給戴爾吉本斯 (Dale Gibbons)。

Good afternoon, everyone. I'll make some brief comments about our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings, then review our financial results and drivers in more detail before handing the call over to the other two members of the executive committee leading the company during Ken's absence who's doing quite well, and we expect to be back soon.

大家下午好。我將對我們的第四季度和 2024 年全年收益做一些簡短的評論，然後更詳細地回顧我們的財務業績和驅動因素，然後將電話交給在肯缺席期間領導公司的執行委員會的另外兩名成員，他們做得相當不錯，我們預計很快就會回來。

Steve Hurley, our Chief Banking Officer for National Business Lines, will discuss our business balance sheet composition and loan to deposit growth drivers; Tim Bruckner, our Chief Banking Officer for Regional Banking, will then discuss asset quality trends. I'll close our prepared remarks for reviewing our 2025 outlook before opening the call up for questions and answers.

我們的全國業務線首席銀行官史蒂夫·赫爾利 (Steve Hurley) 將討論我們的業務資產負債表構成和貸款存款成長動力；我們的區域銀行首席銀行長 Tim Bruckner 將討論資產品質趨勢。在開始問答環節之前，我將結束我們對 2025 年展望的準備發言。

Before addressing our financial results, I want to express our heartfelt sympathy to those affected by the Southern California wildfires. We have a long-standing presence in the area and are sad for those whose lives and livelihoods have been upended by this tragedy.

在談論我們的財務表現之前，我想向遭受南加州野火影響的人們表示衷心的同情。我們長期在該地區駐紮，我們對那些生活和生計因這場悲劇而被顛覆的人們感到悲痛。

Western Alliance has already taken actions and stands ready to support our employees, clients and communities in the rebuilding efforts. We are also currently in the process of providing direct financial support to relief efforts.

西部聯盟已經採取行動，隨時準備好支持我們的員工、客戶和社區進行重建工作。我們目前也正在向救援工作提供直接財政支援。

Regarding our exposure for the company, we've identified 17 properties experiencing either significant or total loss with a combined exposure of under $15 million. Each of these properties had sufficient insurance coverage above our loan amounts with Western Alliance setting these (inaudible) Pay. Therefore, we expect negligible direct financial impact to the company.

至於該公司的風險敞口，我們發現有 17 處房產遭受了重大損失或全部損失，總風險敞口不到 1,500 萬美元。這些房產中的每一處都獲得了足夠的保險，超出了我們的貸款額度，西方聯盟設定了這些（聽不清楚）付款。因此，我們預期該公司的直接財務影響可以忽略不計。

Looking back over 2024, Western Alliance completed a significant liquidity build for a purposefully prioritized growing deposits in excess of loans and deploy this excess liquidity into lower-yielding high-quality liquid assets, which is demonstrated in our 31% marginal loan-to-deposit ratio for the year.

回顧 2024 年，西部聯盟完成了重大流動性建設，有目的地優先增加存款超過貸款，並將這些過剩流動性部署到收益較低的優質流動資產中，這體現在我們當年 31% 的邊際貸款與存款比率上。

With this (inaudible) liquidity foundation, we are well positioned to resume deploying future incremental deposits into more normal earning asset mix that prioritizes higher-yielding loan growth while maintaining a low 80s loan-to-deposit ratio.

有了這個（聽不清楚）流動性基礎，我們就可以很好地將未來的增量存款恢復部署到更正常的收益資產組合中，該組合優先考慮高收益貸款增長，同時保持 80% 的低貸存比。

This positions Western Alliance in 2025 to further drive down cost of deposits, expand our net interest margin, improve profitability, generate significant operating leverage as our efficiency ratio closes in on 50% on an adjusted basis and a move toward a higher teens return on tangible common equity by year-end.

這使得西部聯盟在 2025 年能夠進一步降低存款成本、擴大淨利差、提高盈利能力、產生顯著的經營槓桿（因為我們的效率比率在調整後接近 50%），並在年底前實現更高的有形普通股回報率。

Looking at our financial performance. Western Alliance ended the year with solid earnings, generating $1.95 per share for the fourth quarter and $7.09 for 2024. I'm also pleased to report pre-provision net revenue growth was 12% linked quarter unannualized.

看看我們的財務表現。西部聯盟以穩健的獲利結束了這一財年，第四季每股獲利 1.95 美元，2024 年每股獲利 7.09 美元。我還很高興地報告，撥備前淨收入環比增長 12%。

These results demonstrate the power of our credit and deposit platforms and our gathering success in earning fee income from clients while proactively managing asset quality during a changing rate environment.

這些結果證明了我們的信貸和存款平台的強大功能，以及我們在利率變化的環境下積極管理資產品質的同時從客戶那裡賺取費用收入方面取得的成功。

Lastly, while Tim will discuss asset quality in detail later, I note the completion of a significant number of appraisals toward the end of '24 and a material decline in special mention loans makes us increasingly confident the bulk of CRE migration to classifies behind us and net charge-offs in 2025 will be comparable to that experience in 2024.

最後，雖然蒂姆稍後會詳細討論資產質量，但我注意到，24 年底完成了大量評估，特殊提及貸款大幅下降，這讓我們越來越有信心，大部分 CRE 遷移到我們身後的分類和 2025 年的淨沖銷將與 2024 年的經驗相當。

For the year, WAL produced net revenue of $3.2 billion, net income of $788 million and earnings per share of $7.09. Net revenue and pre-provision net revenue increased 21% and 41% -- 14%, respectively, from the prior year, demonstrating a strengthened bank's earnings engine throughout the liquidity restocking process.

沃爾瑪全年淨營收 32 億美元，淨利 7.88 億美元，每股收益 7.09 美元。營業淨收入和撥備前淨收入分別比上年增長21%和41%（增長14%），顯示銀行在流動性補充過程中獲利引擎得到增強。

Balance sheet repositioning actions that fortified our liquidity and capital basis now position the bank to resume greater risk-adjusted balance sheet growth going forward. Notably, net interest income increased $24 million more than ECR-related deposit costs did during the following rate environment.

資產負債表重新定位行動增強了我們的流動性和資本基礎，現在使我們有能力在未來恢復更大的風險調整後資產負債表成長。值得注意的是，在以下利率環境下，淨利息收入比 ECR 相關存款成本增加了 2,400 萬美元。

Turning to fourth quarter trends and business drivers. Western Alliance generated pre-provision net revenue of $319 million, net income of $217 million and EPS of $1.95. Net interest income decreased $30 million during the quarter to $667 million from lower yields on interest-earning assets along with approximately flat average earning balances. Loan growth was back weighted as we experienced some deferral of fundings into Q1 2025 and pay downs.

轉向第四季度的趨勢和業務驅動因素。西部聯盟的撥備前淨收入為 3.19 億美元，淨收入為 2.17 億美元，每股收益為 1.95 美元。由於生息資產收益率下降以及平均收益餘額大致持平，本季淨利息收入減少 3,000 萬美元至 6.67 億美元。由於我們將部分融資推遲到 2025 年第一季並進行還款，貸款成長被加權。

non-interest income of $172 million rose $46 million quarter-over-quarter from higher mortgage banking revenue, commercial banking fees and income from equity investments. Mortgage banking revenue grew $34 million quarterly to $93 million as mortgage loan production rose 31% year-over-year with a firming gain on sale margin of 21 basis points in the fourth quarter.

非利息收入為 1.72 億美元，比上一季增加 4,600 萬美元，主要由於抵押貸款銀行收入、商業銀行費用和股權投資收入增加。抵押貸款銀行業務收入按季增長 3,400 萬美元，達到 9,300 萬美元，因為抵押貸款發放量年增 31%，第四季度銷售利潤率上漲 21 個基點。

AmeriHome's Earnings benefited from secondary sales from seasonally strong demand for CRA qualifying loans and mortgage servicing rights, where lack of industry supply benefits our business margins as a regular seller.

AmeriHome 的收益受益於季節性對 CRA 合格貸款和抵押貸款服務權的強勁需求帶來的二級銷售，而行業供應不足使我們作為常規賣家的業務利潤率受益。

Additionally, we are making product investments to tap into new mortgage customers that could benefit us in a higher mortgage rate environment. Non-interest expense declined $18 million quarterly to $519 million as deposit costs fell over $33 million to [174].

此外，我們正在進行產品投資，以吸引新的抵押貸款客戶，這可能使我們在更高的抵押貸款利率環境中受益。非利息支出本季下降 1,800 萬美元至 5.19 億美元，原因是存款成本下降超過 3,300 萬美元至[174]。

Deposit cost reductions are poised to continue pulling overall expenses lower throughout 2025. An aggregate deposit costs fell by $3 million more than net interest income declined this quarter, which exemplifies our balance sheet flexibility and nominal net interest income related earnings volatility during a changing rate environment.

存款成本的降低將在 2025 年繼續拉低整體支出。本季總存款成本下降幅度比淨利息收入的降幅高出 300 萬美元，體現了我們的資產負債表靈活性以及利率變動環境下名目淨利息收入相關的收益波動性。

Provision expense of $60 million resulted from $34 million in net charge-offs and an incremental qualitative adjustment on the CRE portfolio. Lastly, our tax rate was lower than expected in Q4 due to several factors, including an increase in solar tax credits from projects placed in service.

6000 萬美元的撥備費用是由 3,400 萬美元的淨沖銷和 CRE 投資組合的增量定性調整造成的。最後，由於多種因素，包括投入營運的太陽能專案稅收抵免增加，我們的第四季稅率低於預期。

Turning to our net interest drivers. You'll see the impact of falling rates on our asset yields but continued accelerating deposit repricing is reducing the overall cost of liability funding, which will expand margins going forward.

轉向我們的淨利息驅動因素。您將看到利率下降對我們的資產收益率的影響，但持續加速的存款重新定價正在降低負債融資的整體成本，這將擴大未來的利潤率。

For the quarter, the yield on total securities declined 22 basis points to 4.67% and held for investment loan yield decreased 31 basis points to 6.34% due to the impact of rate cuts on variable rate loans. The cost of interest-bearing deposits declined 27 basis points from a reduction in deposit rates which continues irrespective of potential future rate cuts.

本季度，由於浮動利率貸款降息的影響，總證券收益率下降 22 個基點至 4.67%，持有投資貸款收益率下降 31 個基點至 6.34%。由於存款利率下調，計息存款成本下降了 27 個基點，無論未來是否進一步降息，存款利率仍會持續下降。

Indicative of our funding cost reductions are offsetting lower asset yields, the 20 basis points difference between the year-end spot rate and the Q4 average rate for interest-bearing deposits exceeds the 8 basis points difference for both held for investment loans and securities portfolio yields.

顯示我們的融資成本降低正在抵銷資產收益率的下降，年末即期利率與第四季度計息存款平均利率之間的 20 個基點差異超過了投資貸款和證券組合收益率之間的 8 個基點差異。

Throughout the fall of last year, market expectations for steep successive rate cuts were so significant that one month and three months SOFR were lower than Fed funds effective. This pressure on our margin is most variable rate yields are tied to SOFR, but index deposits and ECRs are usually tied to the Fed funds rate.

去年整個秋季，市場對連續大幅降息的預期非常強烈，以至於一個月和三個月的 SOFR 利率低於聯邦基金有效利率。我們保證金面臨的壓力在於，大多數浮動利率收益率與 SOFR 掛鉤，但指數存款和 ECR 通常與聯邦基金利率掛鉤。

As rate cut forecasts have tempered significantly, this relationship has changed and now term SOFR is essentially aligned with Fed funds effective. This is why the difference between spot rates for loans and securities and those of deposits with 12 basis points wider to start 2025 than it was for the average during the fourth quarter. Additionally, we have further reduced deposit rates and DCRs in January, while SOFR remains flat as no cut action is expected from the FOMC tomorrow.

隨著降息預測大幅緩和，這種關係發生了變化，現在 SOFR 期限與聯邦基金利率基本一致。這就是為什麼到 2025 年初，貸款和證券的即期利率與存款即期利率之間的差距將比第四季度的平均差距大 12 個基點。此外，我們在 1 月進一步降低了存款利率和 DCR，而 SOFR 則保持不變，因為預計 FOMC 明天不會採取降息行動。

Total cost of funds declined 15 basis points to 2.52% and would have fallen further absent the typical seasonal decline in deposits causing a larger portion of bringing assets to be funded by borrowings which we expect to repay fairly rapidly. In other words, we are seeing funding cost tailwinds emerge outside of just ECR-related deposits.

總資金成本下降 15 個基點至 2.52%，若沒有存款的典型季節性下降導致更大一部分資產由我們預計將相當快償還的借款提供資金，總資金成本還會進一步下降。換句話說，我們看到除了 ECR 相關存款之外，還出現了融資成本順風。

In aggregate, net interest income declined $3 million from lower yields on earning assets. Net interest margin compressed 13 basis points from Q3 to 3.48%. However, I'll point out the overall balance sheet profitability continues to improve and as annualized ECR-related deposit costs to average earning assets, which they fund, fell 16 basis points quarter-over-quarter outpacing the net interest income decrease rooted in terms SOFR pricing moving ahead of effective Fed funds reductions.

總體而言，由於生息資產收益率下降，淨利息收入減少了 300 萬美元。淨利差較第三季壓縮13個基點至3.48%。不過，我要指出的是，整體資產負債表的盈利能力繼續改善，並且由於與 ECR 相關的年化存款成本佔其所資助的平均收益資產的比例環比下降了 16 個基點，其下降速度超過了淨利息收入的下降，這一下降源於 SOFR 定價領先於有效的聯邦基金削減。

Overall, non-interest expense declined $18 million in Q4 as deposit costs fell $34 million from lower rates and average balances, while other operating expenses increased $15 million, mostly from an accrual (inaudible) ups due to the annual bonus.

總體而言，第四季度非利息支出下降了 1800 萬美元，因為較低的利率和平均餘額導致存款成本下降了 3400 萬美元，而其他營運支出增加了 1500 萬美元，主要是由於年度獎金導致的應計費用（聽不清楚）增加。

We expect continued reductions in deposit costs and ECR rates as the full benefit of the lower rate environment is realized. Our adjusted efficiency ratio for the quarter improved by 160 basis points to 51% buoyed by higher mortgage banking revenue.

隨著低利率環境的效益充分實現，我們預期存款成本和 ECR 利率將持續下降。受抵押貸款銀行收入增加的推動，本季我們的調整後效率比率提高了 160 個基點，達到 51%。

Regarding interest rate sensitivity, we've included both a static shock and a dynamic balance sheet ramp scenario to better illustrate the factors that make Western Alliance interest rate each rule on an earnings at risk basis.

關於利率敏感性，我們同時納入了靜態衝擊和動態資產負債表上升情景，以更好地說明西方聯盟根據風險收益製定每條利率規則的因素。

We are forecasting 2 -- 25 basis points rate cuts this year, which is similar to what the futures market currently expects. In the bottom left quadrant, you will see that our static balance sheet stock scenario, interest-sensitive earnings should increase modestly in both the up 100 and the down 100 shocks, making us essentially rate neutral.

我們預測今年的降息幅度將為2至25個基點，與期貨市場目前的預期相似。在左下象限，您將看到我們的靜態資產負債表庫存情景，對利率敏感的收益在上升 100 和下降 100 的衝擊中都會小幅增加，這使我們基本上保持中性評級。

This is exactly what happened in Q4 with a decline in net interest income more than offset by growth in mortgage banking revenue and a material decline in ECR-related costs. This dynamic is indicative of the interplay between our mortgage business and higher beta ECR-related deposits, which act as a natural hedge to earning assets that are more variable rate and thus make us appear asset sensitive on a reported net interest income basis.

這正是第四季度發生的情況，淨利息收入的下降被抵押銀行收入的成長和 ECR 相關成本的大幅下降所抵消。這種動態顯示了我們的抵押貸款業務與更高貝塔 ECR 相關存款之間的相互作用，這些存款可作為對利率變動更大的收益資產的自然對沖，從而使我們在報告的淨利息收入基礎上顯得對資產敏感。

Depending on the trajectory of interest rates, we are prepared to make adjustments to our loan and securities mixes to maintain our largely rate neutral into earnings profile if needed.

根據利率走勢，我們準備對我們的貸款和證券組合進行調整，以便在必要時保持我們的利率基本上中性於獲利狀況。

Steve Curley will now take us through the balance sheet dynamics.

史蒂夫·科利 (Steve Curley) 現在將帶我們了解資產負債表的動態。

Thanks, Dale. The balance sheet ended the year at approximately $81 billion, which reflected solid loan growth of $330 million and an increase in securities and cash of $217 million. As previously mentioned, deposits declined $1.7 billion primarily driven by expected short-term seasonal mortgage warehouse factors, but still grew 20% year-over-year from diversified strength across the franchise.

謝謝，戴爾。年底的資產負債表約為 810 億美元，其中反映出 3.3 億美元的穩健貸款成長以及 2.17 億美元的證券和現金增加。如前所述，存款減少了 17 億美元，主要原因是預期的短期季節性抵押貸款倉庫因素，但由於整個特許經營的多元化實力，存款仍同比增長 20%。

Q4 outflows were comparable on a relative basis to the prior year. Borrowings rose $2.6 billion to offset the lower deposits, but we expect to reduce these high cost balances as deposit growth resumes in the first quarter.

第四季的資金流出量與去年同期相比相當。借款增加了 26 億美元，抵消了存款的減少，但我們預計，隨著第一季存款恢復成長，這些高成本餘額將會減少。

Echoing Dale's introductory comments throughout 2024, half of the $10 billion in balance sheet growth was in cash and securities, while we also reduced borrowings by $1.5 billion. With this important liquidity build behind us, we are poised to generate strong risk-adjusted earning asset growth going forward.

與戴爾在 2024 年全年的開場白相呼應，資產負債表增長的 100 億美元中有一半是現金和證券，同時我們也減少了 15 億美元的借款。憑藉這一重要的流動性建設，我們準備在未來實現強勁的風險調整後收益資產成長。

Finally, tangible book value per share growth was suppressed by a negative AOCI charge in the fourth quarter, but still increased 12% year-over-year to $52.27.

最後，第四季的 AOCI 負值抑制了每股有形帳面價值的成長，但仍比去年同期成長了 12%，達到 52.27 美元。

Western Alliance credit platform provide expertise to a variety of industries and clients, which have allowed us to repeatedly produce loan growth better than overall industry. Loan growth of $330 million was more muted than expected, but progress continues to be achieved in diversifying the loan mix into C&I loans will design runoff occurs in our resi portfolio.

西部聯盟信貸平台為各種行業和客戶提供專業知識，使我們能夠持續實現優於整體產業的貸款成長。3.3 億美元的貸款成長比預期要溫和，但在將貸款組合多樣化為 C&I 貸款方面繼續取得進展，這將導致我們的住宅投資組合出現流失。

This trend continued in the fourth quarter, with nearly all growth in C&I, while construction loans were down $248 million. Resi and consumer loans decreased $74 million, C&I loans now account for 43% of the held-for-investment loan portfolio compared to 38% a year ago while resi and consumer loans are now just over 26% of the portfolio compared to 29% at the end of 2023.

這一趨勢在第四季度得以延續，幾乎所有的成長都來自商業和工業領域，而建築貸款則下降了 2.48 億美元。住宅和消費貸款減少了 7,400 萬美元，商業和工業貸款目前佔持有投資貸款組合的 43%，而一年前為 38%，而住宅和消費貸款現在佔投資組合的 26% 多一點，而 2023 年底為 29%。

In the fourth quarter, growth was fairly diverse as our regional and national business lines contributed $186 million and $110 million in loans respectively. Growth in regional banking was primarily driven by home builder finance, retail franchise and tech and innovation. For the national business lines, mortgage warehouse and MSR finance were the main growth contributors.

第四季度，成長相當多樣化，因為我們的區域和國家業務線分別貢獻了 1.86 億美元和 1.1 億美元的貸款。區域銀行業務的成長主要受到房屋建築商融資、零售特許經營以及技術和創新的推動。對於全國業務線而言，抵押倉庫和 MSR 融資是主要的成長貢獻者。

Turning to Slide 12. Deposits grew $11 billion in 2024, primarily in money market accounts and ECR-related non-interest bearing. In the fourth quarter, deposit growth in our other businesses lines resulted from strength across regional banking business of $327 million, which fully funded its loan growth as well as [$2.4 billion] in contributions from escrow services businesses such as Juris, HOA and Corporate Trust.

翻到第 12 張投影片。2024 年存款成長 110 億美元，主要集中在貨幣市場帳戶和 ECR 相關的無利息帳戶。第四季度，我們其他業務線的存款成長得益於區域銀行業務的強勁成長，成長了 3.27 億美元，這為貸款成長提供了充足的資金，同時也帶來了 Juris、HOA 和 Corporate Trust 等託管服務業務的貢獻 [24 億美元]。

Combined with $111 million of consumer digital deposit growth, growth in these channels allowed us to partially offset $5.7 billion in mortgage warehouse deposit outflow as expected. Our deposit-focused businesses provide diversified granular deposits that complement other deposit gathering efforts and support our loan growth.

加上 1.11 億美元的消費者數位存款成長，這些管道的成長使我們能夠部分抵消預期的 57 億美元抵押貸款倉庫存款流出。我們以存款為重點的業務提供多樣化的細粒度存款，以補充其他存款收集工作並支持我們的貸款成長。

I'll now hand the call over to Tim Bruckner.

我現在將電話交給蒂姆·布魯克納。

Thanks, Steve. Overall, asset quality continues to remain resilient. In quarter four criticized assets rose $61 million as special mention loans declined $110 million while classified assets increased $171 million. Criticized assets are only $87 million higher from a year ago and declined from 1.85% to 1.73% as a percentage of total assets during the same time period, reflecting the interplay of upgrades and downgrades driven by our proactive risk mitigation strategy.

謝謝，史蒂夫。整體來看，資產品質持續保持韌性。第四季度，受批評資產增加了 6,100 萬美元，因為特別提及的貸款減少了 1.1 億美元，而機密資產增加了 1.71 億美元。受到批評的資產僅比一年前增加了 8,700 萬美元，而同期佔總資產的比例則從 1.85% 下降到 1.73%，反映了我們主動風險緩解策略推動的升級和降級的相互作用。

We expect the total criticized asset pool to remain stable in Q1 and then declining throughout 2025. Due in part to our proactive management of troubled situations, which requires pressing for remargin or ongoing borrower investment troubled loans, non-performing assets as a percentage of total assets increased to 65 basis points during the quarter.

我們預計，受批評資產池總量將在第一季保持穩定，然後在 2025 年下降。部分由於我們對困境的積極管理，需要對借款人施加壓力以重新確定保證金或持續投資問題貸款，不良資產佔總資產的比例在本季度上升至 65 個基點。

We expect to see non-performing loans decline as we work through the resolution process. These loans have been reserved or charged down to current as-is values and are revalued on an ongoing basis. Our ACL was increased in support of revaluations in the context of our proactive strategy.

我們預計，隨著解決過程的推進，不良貸款將會減少。這些貸款已被保留或減記至當前價值，並持續重新估價。在我們積極主動的策略背景下，我們的 ACL 有所增加，以支持重新評估。

As a green shoot, we're beginning to see increased lease activity in office properties that have been reset. A compelling example of this is the Downtown San Diego property which migrated into other real estate owned early in Q4. Since taking control of this asset and resetting the basis and rents to the market, we reached agreement to lease 5.5 additional floors. Occupancy has rebounded from 44% to 62% in just a little over two months.

作為一個復甦的跡象，我們開始看到已重置的辦公大樓租賃活動增加。一個引人注目的例子是聖地牙哥市中心的房產，該房產在第四季度初轉移到了其他自有房地產。自從控制這項資產並根據市場情況重置基礎和租金以來，我們達成了租賃另外 5.5 層樓的協議。短短兩個多月內，入住率從 44% 反彈至 62%。

Quarterly net charge-offs were $34 million or 25 basis points of average loans and 18 basis points for the year. We expect charge-offs to be relatively similar in Q1, followed by a generally declining trend throughout 2025 as we continue to make progress remediating our CRE portfolio.

季度淨沖銷金額為 3,400 萬美元，佔平均貸款的 25 個基點，佔全年的 18 個基點。我們預計第一季的沖銷額將相對相似，隨後隨著我們繼續在修復 CRE 投資組合方面取得進展，整個 2025 年將呈現整體下降趨勢。

Provision expense of $60 million added to reserves to cover charge-offs and augmented our CRE reserve. Our classified loans are supported by as-is valuations giving effect to the present market conditions. Our ACL for funded loans increased $17 million from the prior quarter to $374 million. The total ACL to funded loans ratio of 77 basis points rose 3 basis points from the prior quarter.

6000 萬美元的撥備費用添加到儲備金中，以彌補沖銷並增加我們的 CRE 儲備金。我們的分類貸款以反映當前市場狀況的現況估值為依據。我們的已發放貸款 ACL 較上一季增加了 1,700 萬美元，達到 3.74 億美元。總 ACL 與已融資貸款比率為 77 個基點，較上一季上升 3 個基點。

Slide 15 shows the updated ACL walk we've regularly provided to add more context behind our allowance methodology relative to our peers. Our ACL moves up from 77 basis points to 1.37% when incorporating the effect of credit-linked notes as well as the low to no-loss loan categories like equity fund resources, our low LTV and high FICO resi portfolio and mortgage warehouse.

投影片 15 展示了我們定期提供的更新 ACL 步進，以便為我們的配額方法相對於同業添加更多背景資訊。當考慮信用掛鉤票據以及股票基金資源、低 LTV 和高 FICO 住宅投資組合和抵押貸款倉庫等低損失至無損失貸款類別的影響時，我們的 ACL 從 77 個基點上升至 1.37%。

Compared to our $50 billion to $250 billion asset peer banks, we benefit from greater credit-linked notes support as well as a greater percentage of loans in the low to no-loss categories. Emblematic of a balance sheet with a low risk profile, our risk-weighted assets to tangible assets ratio is one of the lowest among the largest US banks at just under 70%.

與資產規模在 500 億至 2500 億美元的同行銀行相比，我們受益於更大的信用掛鉤票據支持，以及低損失至無損失類別貸款的更大比例。我們的風險加權資產與有形資產之比是美國最大銀行中最低的之一，略低於 70%，是低風險資產負債表的象徵。

I'll now hand the call back to Dale.

我現在將電話交還給戴爾。

Thank you, Tim. Our CET1 ratio increased approximately 10 basis points to 11.3% during the quarter. Our tangible common equity to total assets remained flat at 7.2% given the evolving conversation on Basel III endgame (inaudible), as I mentioned that our CET1 ratio, including AOCI marks as well as the loan loss reserve of 11%, which is down slightly from 11.1% at September 30.

謝謝你，提姆。本季度，我們的 CET1 比率增加了約 10 個基點，達到 11.3%。鑑於有關巴塞爾協議 III 最終結果的討論不斷演變（聽不清），我們的有形普通股權益與總資產的比率仍保持在 7.2% 左右，正如我所提到的，我們的 CET1 比率（包括 AOCI 分數）以及 11% 的貸款損失準備金略低於 9 月 30 日的 11.1%。

Please note that pure data using the appendix of this presentation are from Q3 when AOCI was pronounced across the industry for the peers. Even with our AOCI drag in Q4 applied to all, our adjusted capital still ranks above the median of the peer group.

請注意，本簡報附錄中使用的純數據來自第三季度，當時 AOCI 在整個行業中向同行公佈。即使第四季的 AOCI 拖累對所有企業都產生了影響，我們的調整後資本仍然高於同業的中位數。

As previously mentioned, our tangible book value per share increased $0.29 to $52.27 at year-end, which reflects solid earnings growth and mitigated negative AOCI impact from higher rates. Consistent upward growth in tangible book value per share remains a hallmark of Western Alliance and has exceeded peers by 7 times over the past decade.

如前所述，我們每股有形帳面價值在年底增加了 0.29 美元，達到 52.27 美元，這反映了穩健的獲利成長並減輕了利率上升對 AOCI 造成的負面影響。每股有形帳面價值持續成長仍是西部聯盟的標誌，過去十年來已超過同行7倍。

Turning to the management outlook. Exiting 2024, we have essentially completed our balance sheet transformation that considerably increased our deposits and liquidity buffer while still growing earnings and capital.

轉向管理前景。到 2024 年，我們基本上完成了資產負債表轉型，大大增加了我們的存款和流動性緩衝，同時仍在增加收益和資本。

In 2025, we expect continued thoughtful balance sheet growth driven by a diversified credit and deposit platforms with an origination mix designed to drive net interest income growth and margin expansion. We expect loan growth of approximately $5 billion for the year and should hold the loan-to-deposit ratio of around 80 basis points. Deposits are expected to grow $8 billion with increased contributions from our regional banking and escrow businesses.

到 2025 年，我們預計資產負債表將繼續實現可觀的成長，這得益於多元化的信貸和存款平台，以及旨在推動淨利息收入成長和利潤率擴大的資金發起組合。我們預計今年的貸款成長約為 50 億美元，貸存比應保持在 80 個基點左右。隨著我們區域銀行和託管業務的貢獻增加，存款預計將增加 80 億美元。

Turning to capital. Our CET1 ratio should remain fairly consistent with our year-end level of 11.3%, providing balance sheet flexibility. Net interest income is expected to increase 6% to 8%, largely as a result of sustained thoughtful loan growth and expanding NIM that approximates 2024 level on a full year basis.

轉向資本。我們的 CET1 比率應與年底的 11.3% 水準保持相當一致，從而提供資產負債表的靈活性。淨利息收入預計將增加 6% 至 8%，這主要歸因於持續的穩健貸款成長和不斷擴大的淨利息收入 (NIM)，以全年為基礎接近 2024 年的水平。

Non-interest income is also expected to grow 6% to 8% due to ongoing traction in cultivating deeper client relationships with commercial banking fee opportunities and stable mortgage banking revenue.

由於持續透過商業銀行費用機會和穩定的抵押銀行收入來培養更深層的客戶關係，非利息收入預計也將增加 6% 至 8%。

Non-interest expense should decline 1% and 6% with ECR-related deposit costs between $475 million and $525 million, which is notable moderation primarily driven by continued rate reductions. Other non-ECR operating expenses should land between $1.425 billion and $1.475 billion as we continue to invest in future growth opportunities and crossing over the $100 billion asset threshold. We expect to make meaningful operating leverage that will drive our adjusted efficiency ratio below 50% by the end of this year.

非利息支出應下降 1% 至 6%，其中 ECR 相關存款成本在 4.75 億美元至 5.25 億美元之間，這一顯著放緩主要得益於持續的利率下調。由於我們將繼續投資未來成長機會並跨越 1000 億美元的資產門檻，其他非 ECR 營運費用應在 14.25 億美元至 14.75 億美元之間。我們預計將實現有意義的經營槓桿，並在今年年底將我們的調整後效率比率推至 50% 以下。

Regarding our ongoing LFI readiness, efforts to transition to a Category 4 bank, we've completed significant foundational investments in risk and treasury management as well as data reporting capabilities over the last four years when we were $36 billion in assets and expect incremental investments of $55 million to $65 million over the next three years to make the bank (inaudible) for ready.

關於我們正在進行的 LFI 準備工作，即向 4 類銀行轉型的努力，過去四年來，當我們的資產為 360 億美元時，我們已經在風險和資金管理以及數據報告能力方面完成了重大的基礎投資，並預計在未來三年內將增加 5500 萬至 6500 萬美元的投資，以使銀行（聽不清楚）做好準備。

Of this amount, we only expect half to become incremental run rate operating expenses, which is already baked into our business plans to run rate and won't meaningfully impact our profitability. I'd also note these costs exclude total loss absorbing capacity considerations, which are uncertain at this point.

我們預計，在這筆金額中，只有一半會成為增量運行率營運費用，這筆費用已計入我們的業務計劃中，不會對我們的獲利能力產生重大影響。我還要指出的是，這些成本不包括總損失吸收能力的考慮，目前尚不確定。

Asset quality remains resilient, and we expect full year charge-offs of approximately 20 basis points compared to 18 basis points for 2024. Lastly, the effective tax rate for the full year should be approximately 21% as it was in 2024.

資產品質仍保持彈性，我們預計全年沖銷額約為 20 個基點，而 2024 年為 18 個基點。最後，全年有效稅率應與 2024 年一樣約為 21%。

So in conclusion, in 2025, you should expect Western Alliance to enter renewed period's stronger profitability and robust earnings growth, significant operating leverage improvement and return on tangible common equity climbing into the upper teens.

因此，總而言之，到 2025 年，您應該預期西部聯盟將進入新的時期，實現更強勁的盈利能力和強勁的盈利增長，顯著的經營槓桿改善，有形普通股權益回報率將攀升至十幾歲的高位。

At this time, Steve, Tim and I look forward to answering your questions.

現在，史蒂夫、提姆和我期待著回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

(操作員指示) Ebrahim Poonawala，美國銀行。

I guess maybe first question just on Capital. When we look at the capital, I think you mentioned you are pretty much there on CET1 and maybe even TC where you want to be here. Like given the $5 billion loan growth outlook, just see the bank is having excess Capital. And if you do have excess Capital, would you consider buybacks? Or just how you're thinking about Capital deployment priorities?

我想也許第一個問題只是關於資本。當我們看首都時，我想你提到你基本上已經到達了 CET1 甚至可能是你想要的 TC。就像給定 50 億美元的貸款成長前景一樣，只看到銀行擁有過剩的資本。如果您確實有過剩資本，您會考慮回購嗎？或者您只是如何考慮資本部署的優先事項？

Yeah. So we're generating and we expect to generate certainly enough capital to support the balance sheet growth that I outlined. And we think that's kind of the highest and best use for us. But when it makes sense to be able to do something to take advantage of a displacement at some point, should that occur in the market. Yes, I think that would be appropriate. It's not our first order of good business, however.

是的。因此，我們正在創造並且預計將創造足夠的資本來支持我所概述的資產負債表成長。我們認為這對我們來說是最高、最好的用途。但當市場上發生某種情況時，採取某種措施來利用某種位移是有意義的。是的，我認為那樣比較合適。然而這並不是我們第一項好業務。

Got it. And I guess just, Dale, when looking at Slide 9, when we think about rates with, I guess, from a perception standpoint, it feels lower rates would be good for Western Alliance, both in terms of funding cost, mortgage banking pickup. Just give us -- remind us like what would be the ideal rate backdrop for the bank as we think about overall earnings growth, be it on the fee income side as well as from a net interest margin factoring the ECR costs.

知道了。我想，戴爾，當我們看幻燈片 9 時，當我們考慮利率時，我想，從感知的角度來看，感覺較低的利率對西方聯盟有利，無論是在融資成本方面，還是在抵押貸款銀行業務回暖方面。只要告訴我們——提醒我們，當我們考慮整體獲利成長時，銀行的理想利率背景是什麼，無論是費用收入方面，還是從考慮 ECR 成本的淨利差來看。

Yeah. [I think] rate decline work best for the company. So right now, we're seeing -- I'm going to say maybe capitulation from homebuyers in terms of even going into 7% mortgages. If they were maybe in the low 6s, I think that would be maybe more substantial and maybe avoid kind of the flash in the pan type of thing, which maybe occurred during the pandemic when they drop so sharply.

是的。 [我認為]利率下降對公司最有利。所以現在，我們看到——我想說的是，購房者可能會屈服，甚至不願意接受 7% 的抵押貸款。如果它們可能在 6% 出頭，我認為這可能會更加實質性，並且可以避免曇花一現的事情，這種情況可能發生在大流行期間，當時它們急劇下降。

So if we could have a slowly declining rate environment, I would -- that's what I would prefer that obviously eases maybe credit concerns as well as debt service coverage costs also ameliorate to some degree. So -- but conversely, we're ready kind of for everything.

因此，如果我們能夠擁有一個緩慢下降的利率環境，我就會 — — 這是我所希望的，這顯然可以緩解信貸問題以及債務償還成本也會在一定程度上改善。所以 — — 但相反，我們已經為一切做好了準備。

I mean, we can handle an increase in rates, we can have a steeper decline. Right now, we're showing that we -- most of our loan growth is originated in basically SOFR tie variable rate. But we can swap that fixed, if it looks like that things are going to be falling more precipitously.

我的意思是，我們可以應付利率上升，也可以承受更大幅度的下降。目前，我們表明 - 我們的大部分貸款成長基本上源自於 SOFR 掛鉤浮動利率。但如果看起來情況將會更加急劇下降，我們可以將其固定下來。

Good. And just a quick follow-up, your fee income guide. Does it assume a big pullback in mortgage rates? Or are you assuming 30 years, 7% mortgage rate kind of holding for the rest of the year?

好的。接下來是您的費用收入指南。這是否意味著抵押貸款利率將大幅回落？或者您假設今年剩餘時間內抵押貸款利率將維持在 30 年的 7% 水平？

Yeah. We're not -- we're assuming -- basically, we're really aligned with kind of the futures market right now, which I think would be big in terms of rates throughout the year. The Mortgage Bankers Association just -- and I realize that's an industry entity, it came out looking for something a little more optimistic.

是的。我們不是 - 我們假設 - 基本上，我們現在與期貨市場保持一致，我認為這對全年的利率都會產生很大的影響。抵押貸款銀行家協會只是——我意識到這是一個行業實體，它正在尋找一些更樂觀的東西。

We're not, we're looking for basically flat from '24 to '25 and I think we're kind of headed into that right now in the first quarter. The first quarter of '24 was really flat to the fourth quarter that we had of '24. So we think we're -- we think that looks fairly decent.

我們不是，我們預計 24 年至 25 年間基本持平，我認為我們在第一季就已進入這一階段。24 年第一季的表現與 24 年第四季相比基本持平。所以我們認為—我們認為這看起來相當不錯。

Matthew Clark, Piper Sandler.

馬修·克拉克，派珀·桑德勒。

Just on the ECR-related cost outlook. You mentioned you're assuming two rate cuts this year. What about the average ECR deposit balances this year? Is there an expectation maybe that there's not as much growth in 2Q, 3Q and the balances are just a little bit lower and helps keep the cost down? Any update or change there?

僅討論與 ECR 相關的成本前景。您提到預計今年將降息兩次。今年的平均 ECR 存款餘額是多少？是否有預期，第二季和第三季的成長不會那麼大，餘額會稍微低一點，有助於降低成本？有任何更新或改變嗎？

Yeah. So we had the seasonality drop. And I think we telegraphed that at the third quarter earnings call. In the fourth quarter, we have a lot of paydowns from ECR-related mortgage warehouse funds for property taxes. That's kind of rebounded as expected.

是的。因此我們遇到了季節性下降。我想我們在第三季財報電話會議上已經表達了這一點。在第四季度，我們從 ECR 相關的抵押貸款倉庫基金中獲得了大量房產稅的償還。這有點像是預期的反彈。

But I do expect us to have a broader growth of our deposit base in '25 than we had in '24. And getting to your point, Matt, that there's going to be less expansion certainly in the mortgage side and we're growing in other categories. We have our other -- our escrow businesses, which I think are doing well.

但我確實預計，2025 年我們的存款基礎將比2024 年有更廣泛的成長。馬特，回到你的觀點，抵押貸款方面的擴張肯定會減少，而其他類別的業務則會成長。我們還有其他的託管業務，我認為這些業務做得很好。

We've got our trust operation, we have our settlement services, we have our business escrow services. We think the outlook for that might be a little bit better this year with kind of the change in administration and maybe some more M&A activity going on. So we're looking for a broader diversification in '25.

我們有信託業務，有結算服務，有商業託管服務。我們認為，隨著政府的變動以及更多併購活動的開展，今年的前景可能會有所改善。因此，我們尋求在25年實現更廣泛的多樣化。

And I'd just add, Dale, I've managed that business for quite a while. I think deposits there will be flat, but economics will be a bit better. There's not quite as much pricing competition. So I think you might see us improve the cost of funding beyond what just happens with the Fed funds rate.

我還要補充一點，戴爾，我管理這家公司已經很久了。我認為那裡的存款將保持平穩，但經濟狀況會好一些。價格競爭不太激烈。因此我認為你可能會看到我們改善融資成本，而不僅僅是聯邦基金利率的提高。

Got it. Okay. And then just on average earning assets, at least in the near term, I think you're anticipating some growth in earning assets this year. But how should we think about earning assets, I guess, here in the near term? Should we just assume you're paying off that debt that you took on with the seasonal inflow of ECR deposits here in 1Q?

知道了。好的。然後就平均收益資產而言，至少在短期內，我認為您預計今年收益資產會有所增長。但我想，短期內我們該如何考慮獲利資產呢？我們是否應該假設您正在透過第一季的季節性 ECR 存款流入來償還所承擔的債務？

Well, so yeah, we had eight for the year. And as we just saw, the fourth quarter tends to be a little bit of a contraction. So it means you got to do more than eight for the first three quarters. And part of that is really kind of paying that down. Now I'm looking for loan growth to be more or less consistent throughout 2025.

嗯，是的，我們今年有八個。正如我們剛剛看到的，第四季經濟趨於略有收縮。所以這意味著你必須在前三個季度做八件事以上。其中一部分其實就是償還債務。現在我希望貸款成長在 2025 年全年保持大致穩定。

I'd just say -- I think we carefully manage loan growth in 2024 as we did the liquidity build, but I mean our people are out in the market making sales calls, and I can kind of feel the pipeline is filling up. So we have exposure to private credit. We like that business, good risk-adjusted returns with our lender finance and build finance business. So I'm bullish on loan growth.

我只想說 - 我認為我們會在 2024 年謹慎管理貸款增長，就像我們建立流動性一樣，但我的意思是我們的員工正在市場上進行銷售電話，我可以感覺到渠道正在填滿。因此，我們有私人信貸。我們喜歡這項業務，透過我們的貸款人融資和建設融資業務可以獲得良好的風險調整回報。所以我看好貸款成長。

Bernard Von Gizycki, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Bernard Von Gizycki。

Just on the expenses, we talked about the deposit insurance expenses related of $37 million in the quarter. I know this sequential increase was due to higher insured balances. Are these costs that you'll be able to pass on to depositors? Or do you see this expense expected to continue to increase and assuming the '25 outlook?

僅在費用方面，我們談到了本季度相關的 3700 萬美元的存款保險費用。我知道這一連續增長是由於保險餘額增加所致。你能將這些成本轉嫁給儲戶嗎？或者您認為預計這項費用將繼續增加並假設'25年的前景？

Yeah, that's a great question. No, we don't expect it to increase. And we got here in part after some of the volatility last year and whereby we basically volunteer clients said, why don't you move into an insured deposit network situation. And there's a cost associated with that, both to the FDIC as well as to the network manager and so we did that.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。不，我們預計它不會增加。我們之所以走到今天這一步，部分原因是去年經歷了一些波動，當時我們基本上是自願的客戶說，為什麼你們不進入一個有保險的存款網絡呢？這對聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 和網路管理者來說都是有成本的，所以我們這麼做了。

And so what we just implemented in the fourth quarter, I think, December, we're now charging the client for that. We have -- it's actually a little bit a surcharge. And we said, look, we're going to set it up to either way. You can move funds at will from fully insured or just to ensure the $250,000. But note that there's a 40 basis points charge if you're going to go to the fully insured piece of it. And so some of them moved back and forth.

所以，我想，我們在第四季度，也就是 12 月實施了這項計劃，現在我們正在向客戶收取費用。我們有—這實際上有點附加費。我們說，看，無論哪種方式我們都會進行設定。您可以隨意轉移完全保險的資金或僅確保 250,000 美元。但請注意，如果您要購買全額保險，則需支付 40 個基點的費用。因此其中一些人來回移動。

A lot of them are keeping it kind of been fully insured. And so we're actually doing a little bit better than we expected with that. But no, we're -- we pushed that back to the clients. We give them optionality now. And so far, it's usually working out.

他們中很多人都已經購買了全額保險。因此，我們實際上做得比預期要好一些。但不，我們 - 我們將其推回給客戶。我們現在給予他們選擇權。到目前為止，一切進展順利。

And then just maybe on credit. I know Tim, you mentioned the appraisals obtained at the end of the year. I know there was a pickup in net charge-offs in C&I. And I know that's been like kind of lumpy one-offs really throughout the year, the big pickup in 4Q.

然後也許只是賒帳。我知道提姆，你提到了年底獲得的評估。我知道工商企業的淨沖銷金額增加。我知道，這實際上就像全年的一次性事件一樣，但在第四季度出現了大幅增長。

Just thoughts on your outlook for '25, I know it seems to be kind of flat and more positive. But just anything on C&I that you're seeing? Any color you can elaborate on?

只是想想你對 25 年的展望，我知道它似乎有點平穩和更加積極。但是您在 C&I 上看到了什麼嗎？能詳細說明一下什麼顏色嗎？

Great question. Tim Bruckner. Okay. First, outside of CRE office, we're not seeing any migration trends in any other segment. So our C&I has been stable and very predictable in terms of performance, we've made no changes in our business model or underwriting that would suggest that would change going forward.

好問題。蒂姆·布魯克納。好的。首先，在商業房地產辦公室之外，我們沒有看到任何其他領域的遷移趨勢。因此，我們的 C&I 在績效方面一直很穩定且非常可預測，我們沒有對我們的業務模式或承保進行任何改變，這意味著未來會發生變化。

When we look at CRE office, I remind the listeners that we a bridge lender in this area. So that entire portfolio is a floating rate portfolio that we underwrote on a path to stabilization or at our repositioning. So we don't have assets that come over the bow on that and surprise us. These are assets that receive high monitoring and very structured default provisions from the time we put the loan.

當我們看到 CRE 辦公室時，我提醒聽眾，我們是該地區的過橋貸款人。因此，整個投資組合都是浮動利率投資組合，我們在穩定或重新定位的道路上進行了承保。因此，我們不會遇到任何令我們感到驚訝的資產。從我們發放貸款之日起，這些資產就受到嚴格監控，並有非常結構化的違約準備金。

So the same assets are the ones that we underwrote on a direct basis, and we've been hand-in-hand with for the last 18 months as we work through the cycle. So your point of it is and can be chunky. When we talk about the San Diego asset, that's really a good news story. We show the ability to reset the basis to something close to be in a little below market and how quickly we can lease a property like that up.

因此，我們直接承保的資產是相同的，我們在過去 18 個月中一直與這些資產攜手並進，共同完成整個週期。所以你的觀點是，而且可能很粗俗。當我們談論聖地牙哥資產時，這確實是一個好消息。我們展示了將基礎重置為接近略低於市場水平的能力，以及我們可以多快租賃這樣的房產。

Having that kind of strategy or disposed gives us the ability to do that again and again. And so we've been a little more aggressive with the reserve. We stepped up our reserve a little bit to give us that kind of flexibility.

有了這樣的策略或安排，我們就能有能力一次又一次地做到這一點。因此，我們在儲備方面採取了更積極的態度。我們稍微加強了儲備，以便擁有這種彈性。

I would -- we also note that our total -- Yeah. I mean our total exposure, as Tim mentioned, been kind of relatively flat. So we don't have any more things kind of coming in the funnel in terms of this criticized asset situation.

我會 — — 我們也注意到我們的總數 — — 是的。我的意思是，正如蒂姆所提到的，我們的整體曝光率相對平穩。因此，就這種受到批評的資產狀況而言，我們不會再遇到任何其他問題。

Gary Tenner, D.A. Davidson.

蓋瑞‧坦納（Gary Tenner），地方檢察官戴維森。

In terms of follow-up on the ECR question asked a few minutes ago. Can you just remind me, is the rate paid on kind of the non-mortgage warehouse ECRs, is that just a lower ECR rate, so it brings down the overall rate as the other segments grow?

關於幾分鐘前提出的 ECR 問題的後續問題。您能否提醒我一下，非抵押倉庫 ECR 支付的利率是否只是較低的 ECR 利率，因此隨著其他部分的增長，它會降低整體利率？

Yeah. I mean most of them are really binary. You're either getting interest or you're getting ECR. There's maybe a unique case with our HOA group, whereby interest goes to the HOA itself, the owner of the funds and then an ECR can go to the manager that compensated for doing the work for these HOAs and those are both lower, right?

是的。我的意思是它們大多數都是真正二進制的。您要么獲得利息，要么獲得 ECR。我們的 HOA 集團可能存在一種特殊情況，即利息歸 HOA 本身，即資金所有者，然後 ECR 可以歸於為這些 HOA 工作提供補償的經理，而且這兩個數額都較低，對嗎？

So that you have a lower rate and a lower ECR for those that combined is still lower than obviously what a market rate would be.

因此，雖然綜合起來，您可以獲得較低的利率和較低的 ECR，但顯然仍然低於市場利率。

Okay. And then on the fee income guide for the year, just curious, does that include any embedded assumptions around equity gains. You had almost $40 million this past year. Is there a base assumption as part of that 6% to 8% growth range? Or is that not incorporated?

好的。然後，關於今年的費用收入指南，我很好奇，其中是否包括有關股權收益的任何嵌入式假設。去年你有近4000萬美元。在 6% 到 8% 的成長範圍內是否存在一個基本假設？或者說它沒有被納入？

So that's not part of the growth. I mean, we do think that we're likely to see some. Those generally come about after an acquisition or a sale of the company, whether it's an IPO or from a larger, what we call, sequential buyers. But yeah, we're not anticipating a growth in that -- in the equity piece to be able to get that growth rate.

所以這不是成長的一部分。我的意思是，我們確實認為我們可能會看到一些。這些通常是在公司被收購或出售之後發生的，無論是首次公開發行 (IPO) 還是來自更大規模的、我們所謂的連續買家。但是的，我們預期股權部分不會成長，無法達到這樣的成長率。

Well, -- not growth so much, Dale, but is there a base assumption that it stays flat? Because I guess what I'm trying to understand is I think you've mentioned kind of expectations of flat total mortgage revenue in 2025. So where is the growth coming from effectively, especially if you kind of had a zero on that equity investment line. So just trying to see if it's zero or flat or what you [thought it].

嗯，戴爾，成長幅度不是很大，但是是否有一個基本假設，就是成長會保持穩定？因為我想理解的是，我認為您提到了對 2025 年總抵押貸款收入持平的預期。那麼，成長實際上從何而來，特別是當你的股權投資線上有一個零的時候。所以只是想看看它是零還是平的，或者你[這麼想]。

I understand your question, Gary. So yea, it's basically coming from two places. One of them is our regions, which we're getting good traction in, and we expect to see growth there. We implemented a service charge fee increase on January 1 to pick that up. And then the second is what we're doing in the digital payment space, with our digital disbursements, which is one of the -- is probably the largest in the world, I think on some of these contracts that they've distributed and settlement services where there's payment revenue in there that we think is going to be (inaudible).

我明白你的問題，加里。是的，它基本上來自兩個地方。其中之一就是我們的地區，我們在這些地區取得了良好的發展勢頭，我們預計那裡也會有成長。為了解決這個問題，我們從 1 月 1 日起提高了服務費。然後第二個是我們在數位支付領域所做的工作，我們的數位支付可能是世界上最大的數位支付之一，我認為在他們分發的一些合約和結算服務中，我們認為其中的支付收入將會（聽不清楚）。

Okay. And that revenue shows up in the service storage line as well?

好的。這些收入也反映在服務儲存線上嗎？

It does. And another income bottom there -- the other.

是的。還有另一個收入底線——另一個。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥格拉蒂，KBW。

Dale, if I look at your expense range and you take out the ECRs, I guess what would make you be at the top or the low end of that expense -- core expenses?

戴爾，如果我看一下你的支出範圍，並且你拿出 ECR，我猜是什麼讓你處於這項支出的最高端或最低端——核心支出？

Well, so I mean, we're -- we've got LFI in there. That's certainly kind of a part of what's taking place. Frankly, I would hope that maybe we've got a little stronger performance than we're outlining here. I mean we see where we've come out.

嗯，我的意思是，我們 - 我們在那裡有 LFI。這確實是正在發生的事情的一部分。坦白說，我希望我們的表現能夠比我們在這裡概述的更強勁一些。我的意思是我們知道我們的結局如何。

I mentioned that we want to hold kind of an 80% loan-to-deposit ratio, that would imply a little bit better growth based on an $8 billion deposit number. So things like that could be a factor, which would affect elements of incentive compensation and things of that sort.

我提到，我們希望維持 80% 的貸存比，這意味著在 80 億美元的存款數字基礎上實現更好的成長。因此，諸如此類的事情可能成為影響激勵薪酬和諸如此類的事情的一個因素。

Okay. And then, I guess, coming back to the margin for a minute. It sounds like if we connect the lag in the deposits. And I think you said margins for the full year will be kind of high [3.50s], if I heard you right. So Q1 should be -- Q1 should see a rebound, if I'm interpreting the margin comments, right?

好的。然後，我想，回到邊緣一分鐘。這聽起來就像是我們把存款的滯後連結起來。如果我沒聽錯的話，您說的全年利潤率將會很高 [3.50%]。所以如果我理解保證金評論的話，第一季應該會出現反彈，對嗎？

Yeah. So if I look at the adjusted margin, which of course, pushes the ECR cost to interest expense. We were actually up. We're up 4 basis points from the third quarter to fourth quarter. And that's going to be -- that's going to show a more significant improvement than just the core margin itself, but the core margin itself, we believe, is also going to look okay.

是的。因此，如果我看一下調整後的利潤率，這當然會將 ECR 成本推到利息支出上。我們確實起來了。從第三季到第四季度，我們的成長率為 4 個基點。這將——這將顯示出比核心利潤率本身更顯著的改善，但我們相信核心利潤率本身看起來也會不錯。

Okay. Great. And then maybe if I could slip one more in. The $8 billion -- I just want to put a finer point on the ECR deposits. The $8 billion that you've laid out, I think around half of your deposit growth this year was related to the ECR. Is that about what's factored into that $8 billion, roughly half of that coming from or would you point it to a lower number.

好的。偉大的。然後也許我可以再放一個進去。80 億美元 — — 我只是想更詳細地說明 ECR 存款。您所投入的 80 億美元，我認為今年存款成長的一半左右與 ECR 有關。這就是 80 億美元中所考慮的因素嗎？

To a lower number, I believe less than one-third.

對於較低的數字，我認為不到三分之一。

Ben Gerlinger, Citi.

花旗銀行的本‧格林格 (Ben Gerlinger)。

I just wanted to double check in terms of the Fee income assumption set on mortgage, you said you're assuming flat year-over-year in terms of total master volume? Or were you assuming the MBA forecast?

我只是想再檢查一下抵押貸款的費用收入假設，您說您假設總體主量與去年同期持平嗎？或者您假設了 MBA 預測？

No, we're assuming flat revenue for us. The MBA forecast will be more optimistic than that, I would say, but that's what we've dialed in to show you the estimates and the guidance we have for 2025.

不，我們假設我們的收入保持不變。我想說，MBA 的預測會比這更樂觀，但這就是我們向您展示我們對 2025 年的估計和指導的目的。

Got you. Okay. So that kind of leads to my next question. It seems like you guys seem to have a pretty healthy pipeline to put up $5 billion. And if mortgage starts to do better, it seems like both the revenue side, both NII and fees could be a little better than expected.

明白了。好的。這引出了我的下一個問題。看起來你們似乎擁有相當健全的管道來投入 50 億美元。如果抵押貸款開始好轉，那麼收入方面、NII 和費用似乎都可能比預期好一些。

Would that mean you'd probably spend a little bit more to, like you said, that incremental build for life above 100? Or is that kind of just baked in over the next 24, 36 months?

這是否意味著您可能會多花一點錢，就像您說的那樣，為超過 100 歲的生活進行增量構建？或者這只是在未來 24 到 36 個月內實現的？

Yeah, I appreciate that. I mean we're -- in terms of the expense level, we're really focused on PPNR growth. And so if we can drive more revenue is what you're alluding to. Now I got to tell you, I mean, the rate market has been so uneven since last summer, here with now the tenure up 100 basis points from when they first started cutting rates.

是的，我很感激。我的意思是，就費用水平而言，我們真正關注的是 PPNR 成長。所以你所暗示的是我們能夠增加收入。現在我要告訴你，我的意思是，自去年夏天以來，利率市場一直很不穩定，現在的利率期限比他們第一次開始降息時上漲了 100 個基點。

So I'm not sure kind of what that means. And so we think that flat is a reasonable basis for going forward. But if that were to be more attractive, we're going to look at what can we do to, again, build businesses, but also coincidence with driving our efficiency ratio below 50%. We think we can adjust on an adjusted basis, we think we'll be there by the end of this year irrespective of maybe the scenario you outlined.

所以我不太清楚那是什麼意思。因此，我們認為平穩是繼續前進的合理基礎。但如果這更有吸引力，我們將研究我們能做些什麼來再次打造業務，同時也將我們的效率比率降至 50% 以下。我們認為我們可以進行調整，我們認為無論您概述的情景如何，我們都會在今年年底實現這一目標。

Nick Holowko, UBS.

瑞銀的尼克·霍洛科（Nick Holowko）。

I wanted to just circle back on the earnings at risk disclosure for the quarter. I know you pointed to the shock scenario, and it seems like you are fairly neutral under that situation. But looking at the rent scenario, it looks like you swung from a liability-sensitive position to an asset sensitivity position. So I was just wondering if you could unpack a little bit what drove exactly those changes there.

我想回顧一下本季的獲利風險揭露。我知道您指出了令人震驚的情景，而且看起來您在那種情況下是相當中立的。但從租金情況來看，你似乎從負債敏感型立場轉向了資產敏感型立場。所以我只是想知道您是否可以稍微解釋一下究竟是什麼導致了這些變化。

Yeah. So I alluded to this a little bit earlier, but I'll maybe go into more depth. So the assumption set on the ramp scenario on both the net interest income and earnings at risk is that we are basically putting most of our earning assets loan growth on -- with a variable rate, usually tied to one month SOFR or something like that.

是的。我之前稍微提到了這一點，但我可能會更深入地討論。因此，對淨利息收入和風險收益的上升情境設定的假設是，我們基本上將大部分收益資產的貸款成長放在浮動利率上，通常與一個月的 SOFR 或類似利率掛鉤。

And we've done that in part because we think that that's been helpful to the clients to some degree. And so we've kind of let that go, and of course, we get fees for that. If we think this is going to play out, we are going to see rates down 100 basis points. And again, we're not calling for that, but could happen certainly.

我們這樣做的部分原因是我們認為這對客戶有幫助。所以我們就放棄了，當然，我們會因此收取費用。如果我們認為這種情況會發生，我們將看到利率下降 100 個基點。再說一遍，我們並不是呼籲這樣做，但這肯定會發生。

We expect that we'll be swapping that fix and hold those asset yields higher than they would otherwise be if they fell. And that's how we can really manipulate this and have earnings at risk also positive in a declining rate environment as it was -- as you -- correctly as you stated it was in the third quarter.

我們預計將調整該固定利率並將這些資產收益率維持在高於其下跌時的水平。這就是我們如何真正操縱它，並在利率下降的環境下使風險收益也變為正值，正如您在第三季度正確指出的那樣。

Got it. And then maybe just one follow-up again on the ECR costs. I know they came down maybe a little bit less than you anticipated in the quarter. Is an 81% beta like you had assumed in the prior earnings at risk, is that still a fair way to think about the sensitivity there to rates?

知道了。然後可能只需要再次跟進一次 ECR 成本。我知道本季的降幅可能比你預期的要低一點。81% 的貝塔係數是否像您在先前的風險收益中所假設的那樣，這仍然是考慮利率敏感度的合理方式嗎？

Yeah, it is. We think it's going to pick up a little bit. So we have this situation going in basically starting from mid of the third quarter where you were going to see the successive jumbo cuts 50 basis points in a row. And as you know, we ended up using three cuts aggregating to 100 basis points and then the expectation, which was originally we were going to have [seven] cuts in 2024 kind of really dissipated and now we're kind of a two.

是的。我們認為它會略有回升。因此，這種情況基本上從第三季中期開始出現，你會看到利率連續大幅降息 50 個基點。如你所知，我們最終採用了三次降息，總計 100 個基點，而最初預期的 2024 年降息七次，現在降息兩次。

So if that's taken place, we're not repricing our loans below a SOFR base rate in terms of what they were before. And so that has really kind of held that up. In terms of the catch-up on the ECR side, those were also -- it's a little bit of a -- I don't know, it's a leapfrog process in terms of what are we doing with the client, what are they seeing elsewhere? What are their other options, and so it's been a successive cut.

因此，如果發生這種情況，我們不會將貸款定價為低於先前的 SOFR 基準利率。所以這確實起到了阻礙作用。就 ECR 方面的追趕而言，這些也是——有點——我不知道，這是一個跨越式的過程，就我們與客戶一起做了什麼、他們在其他地方看到了什麼而言？他們還有其他什麼選擇呢？

And so we cut these several times, we cut them on December 1, we cut them again in January 1. And I think we basicallykind of cut up, but that is why it's been a little slower on the ECR catch-up than what we originally expected.

因此，我們多次削減這些支出，我們在 12 月 1 日削減了這些支出，我們在 1 月 1 日再次削減了這些支出。我認為我們基本上已經達成一致，但這就是為什麼 ECR 追趕速度比我們最初預期的要慢一些。

Yeah. And I think -- this is Steve again. I think we had some outliers where we had to spend a little bit more, but we were able to kind of trim those back in and that kind of readjustments done, but it was kind of a -- we did an increments and now those cuts over and above Fed funds have now been made, and you'll see the benefit of that starting in 2025.

是的。我想——這又是史蒂夫。我認為我們有一些異常情況，需要多花一點錢，但我們可以稍微削減這些開支，並進行這種調整，但這有點像 - 我們做了增量，現在已經進行了超出聯邦基金的削減，從 2025 年開始你就會看到它的好處。

Andrew Terrell, Stephens.

安德魯·特雷爾，史蒂芬斯。

Not to beat a dead horse on mortgage, but Dale, was there a fair value mark on the HFS book that came to the gain on sale income this quarter? And if so, are you able to quantify that?

不想在抵押貸款問題上再說什麼，但是戴爾，HFS 帳簿上是否有一個公允價值標記，從而產生了本季度的銷售收入收益？如果是的話，您能量化嗎？

No, there wasn't. And it was stronger than kind of we anticipated. And seasonally, the fourth quarter tends to be a little bit lighter. I did mention that we sell CRA qualifying loan pools and securities pools will securitize so for people that want some kind of a (inaudible) track, zip code, whatever.

不，沒有。而且它比我們預期的還要強。從季節性來看，第四季的銷售情況往往會稍微清淡一些。我確實提到過，我們出售符合 CRA 資格的貸款池，並且證券池將進行證券化，以便為那些想要某種（聽不清楚）軌道、郵政編碼等的人提供服務。

And obviously, those bespoke types of securities and pools come with a premium price from us. That helps. Maybe there's some seasonal elements to that for year-end window dressing for reporting purposes. But in any event, again, I look at the fourth quarter revenue from AmeriHome and I compare it to the first quarter, which is now a seasonally stronger period that we're entering now, and it's really right on top of each other.

顯然，我們對這些客製化類型的證券和資金池都收取了較高的價格。這有幫助。也許是出於年終報告的目的，其中會包含一些季節性因素。但無論如何，我再次查看了 AmeriHome 第四季度的收入，並將其與第一季度進行了比較，現在我們正進入一個季節性較強的時期，而且兩季度的收入確實處於同一水平。

So we think holding basically where we are in 4Q for mortgage revenue going into 2025 is reasonable.

因此，我們認為，到 2025 年，抵押貸款收入基本上維持在第四季度的水平是合理的。

And this is Steve again. I just think in the fourth quarter, what ended up happening because we assume the loan will be sold to Fannie, Freddie or issued into Ginnie security. But often case, I mean, AmeriHomes is a wonderful company, and they will build spec pools or they'll build a pool of loans and sell them to an insurance company or a bank, that's exactly tailored, hey, we want $200 million in these five counties in Florida and they'll pull that from inventory.

這又是史蒂夫。我只是在想，在第四季度，最終會發生什麼，因為我們假設貸款將出售給房利美、房地美或發行為吉利證券。但通常情況下，我的意思是，AmeriHomes 是一家很棒的公司，他們會建立規格池或貸款池並將其出售給保險公司或銀行，這是完全量身定制的，嘿，我們想要在佛羅裡達州這五個縣獲得 2 億美元，他們會從庫存中提取這筆資金。

And so they'll kind of build you a semi-custom suit and they get a premium for that. They do a really nice job of building to suit for people that want to buy loans. And that doesn't come through in the margin, it comes through in kind of secondary gain.

因此，他們會為您打造一套半訂製的西裝，並從中獲得額外收入。他們確實出色地完成了建築工作，以滿足那些想要購買貸款的人的需求。這並不是透過利潤實現的，而是透過某種二次收益來實現的。

We include -- margin is it, hey, we delivered along to Fannie, Freddie gains over and above that, we take as a secondary marketing gain, and we track it separately. So we saw a nice uptick in activity in the fourth quarter there.

我們包括—利潤率，嘿，我們向房利美和房地美提供的利潤超過這些，我們將其作為二級行銷收益，並單獨進行追蹤。因此我們看到第四季度的活動出現了良好的上升趨勢。

Got it. Okay. I appreciate that. And then on the fee income guidance for 2025, do you assume any securities gains within there?

知道了。好的。我很感激。那麼，關於 2025 年的費用收入指引，您是否認為其中會有任何證券收益？

None.

沒有任何。

Okay. And then lastly, just, Dale, I know we talked some on crypto back in 2022 time frame. I think you guys were at 1 point working with (inaudible). This administration is clearly taking a bit of a different stance around crypto. And we've seen a few banks talking about it more and more. I just want to gauge your appetite on kind of the crypto space overall and whether it's something interesting to Western Alliance?

好的。最後，Dale，我知道我們在 2022 年的時間範圍內討論了一些關於加密貨幣的問題。我認為你們曾經（聽不清楚）。本屆政府對加密貨幣顯然採取了不同的立場。我們看到一些銀行越來越多地談論這個問題。我只是想了解一下您對加密貨幣領域的興趣，以及西方聯盟是否對它感興趣？

Yeah. I mean I have long been an advocate for blockchain technology. I mean I look at Swift and what it takes to send money to Hong Kong versus USDC, I can do that in less than a minute. And so there isn't a breakthrough here in terms of transferring funds with all the AML and everything else behind it, I think, makes sense.

是的。我的意思是我一直是區塊鏈技術的倡導者。我的意思是，我查看了 Swift 以及將錢匯到香港與 USDC 所需的時間，我可以在不到一分鐘的時間內完成。因此，我認為，在資金轉移以及反洗錢等其他問題方面沒有取得突破，這是有道理的。

We are a fully compliant process with regulators on this, and we're working with them as we step into it. But we have about 2% of our deposits coming from this source presently. I think that there's kind of more opportunity there over time.

我們在這方面的流程完全符合監管機構的要求，我們正在與他們合作。但我們目前約有2%的存款來自此來源。我認為隨著時間的推移，那裡將會有更多的機會。

But again, we're working with the best, most well-heeled participants in the space, but you're right. I mean I do think it is a little bit more accepted from this administration than maybe what it has been in the past.

但再說一次，我們正在與該領域最優秀、最富有的參與者合作，但你是對的。我的意思是，我確實認為與過去相比，本屆政府對此的接受程度更高一些。

Anthony Elian, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的安東尼·埃利安 (Anthony Elian)。

Your NII outlook assumes two rate cuts in this year. Can you talk about the impact still to the ranges and outlook for both NII and ECR deposit costs if we don't get any cuts this year?

您的 NII 前景假設今年將降息兩次。您能否談談如果今年不削減存款成本，對 NII 和 ECR 存款成本的範圍和前景將產生什麼影響？

Yeah. I mean we're -- I mean I think that's kind of where we are. I mean we're -- it's really flat for us in terms of kind of this kind of net interest income guide. So again, the sensitivity report you see is changes off of the baseline. And we think those are imminently manageable by us. within this kind of relevant range of plus or minus 100 basis points.

是的。我的意思是我們——我的意思是我認為這就是我們所處的狀態。我的意思是，就這種淨利息收入指南而言，這對我們來說確實是持平的。因此，您再次看到的敏感度報告是根據基線而變化的。我們認為我們很快就能解決這些問題。在這種正負 100 個基點的相關範圍內。

The guidance we're giving you is really based upon what we think is going to happen. So -- and we've got two cuts in there, minus 50 basis points. Say that zero, which I don't think is a very -- I think that's a reasonable probability that there aren't any cuts this year. We have the same guidance because our variability on our rate environments, both on a shock as well as a ramp scenario is, I think, fairly negligible and easily within our management capability to be able to pin down.

我們給您的指導實際上是基於我們認為將要發生的情況。因此 — — 我們進行了兩次降息，每次減 50 個基點。假設這個數字是零，我不認為這是一個非常大的可能性——我認為今年不削減任何支出是合理的可能性。我們之所以有相同的指導，是因為我認為，我們的利率環境的變化，無論是在衝擊還是上升情景下，都是相當小的，並且在我們的管理能力範圍內很容易確定。

And then just a follow-up on capital. I wanted to get your latest thoughts on M&A, just given you're getting close to the $100 billion threshold, but we now have a regulatory backdrop with the new administration that's likely going to be more favorable for all banks.

然後只是對資本的後續關注。我想聽聽您對併購的最新看法，鑑於您的併購金額已接近 1000 億美元的門檻，但目前新政府的監管背景可能對所有銀行都更為有利。

Yeah. So I mean, I think different banks have different ideas of how they're going to cross over $100 billion. There are additional costs associated with that, and I think a lot of participants have kind of laid out.

是的。所以我的意思是，我認為不同的銀行對於如何突破 1000 億美元有不同的想法。這會產生額外的費用，我認為許多參與者已經為此做好了準備。

For us, we're not dependent upon doing an M&A deal to successfully move over. We have a strong organic growth engine over the next two years as we kind of finally prepare for LFI status, we're going to focus on having our good kind of core growth deposits and loans, but also improving our performance metrics, i.e., we still have some borrowed funds.

對我們來說，我們並不依賴併購交易來成功轉型。未來兩年，我們擁有強勁的有機成長引擎，隨著我們最終為 LFI 地位做好準備，我們將專注於擁有良好的核心成長存款和貸款，同時也改善我們的績效指標，即我們仍然有一些借入資金。

We still have some broker deposits we can push those down. We can get higher quality sources that will drive up our return on tangible common equity that will drive up our ROA and our margin during this period of time. So we're not sitting back.

我們仍有一些經紀人存款，我們可以將其壓低。我們可以獲得更高品質的資源，這將提高我們的有形普通股權益回報率，從而提高我們在此期間的 ROA 和利潤率。所以我們不會袖手旁觀。

And then let's say we're hovering kind of below $100 billion at that point in time. It's like, okay, we got a green light. Let's go. We could put in a little bit of that and move through, say, to north of 110 or something with our Capital ratios high enough and still maintain what we say is our floor of above 11%. And we will be able to do that and swallow any additional charges to do that. So we have a path to be able to do it without it.

然後假設我們當時的水平徘徊在 1000 億美元以下。就好像，好吧，我們得到了綠燈。我們走吧。我們可以投入一點這樣的資金，然後將其轉移到 110 以上，或者我們的資本比率足夠高的地方，同時仍然保持我們所說的 11% 以上的底線。我們將能夠做到這一點，並承擔因此產生的任何額外費用。所以我們有一條無需它就能做到這一點的途徑。

I've got to tell you, if you're going to plan on doing M&A on this, it really does complicate your LFI transition life because now I've got to figure out a plan or how am I going to migrate all of their applications either convert them to us or in advance or how are they going to be compliant, such that on a consolidated basis, you're compliant over $100 billion. We think it's probably easier to wait until your kind of through that hurdle before you do that of any size.

我必須告訴你，如果你打算就此進行併購，那麼它確實會使你的 LFI 過渡生活變得複雜，因為現在我必須制定一個計劃，或者我該如何遷移他們的所有應用程序，將它們轉換給我們，或者提前轉換，或者他們將如何合規，以便在合併的基礎上，你可以合規超過 1000 億美元。我們認為，最好等到自己克服了那個障礙之後再去做任何規模的事情。

Jon Arfstrom, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Jon Arfstrom。

Dale or Tim, on provision reserves, should we assume a provision that matches loan growth in your NCL guide? Is that too simple? Or is that the right way to look at it?

Dale 或 Tim，關於撥備儲備，我們是否應該假設撥備與你們 NCL 指南中的貸款成長相符？這是否太簡單了？或者說這是正確的看待問題的方式？

I mean it's too simple, but it's still the right way to look at it. I mean, it's -- obviously, there's complex computations here. There's overlays of what's going to transpire. We look at Moody's analytics and what they expect on their adverse scenario and their consensus forecast.

我的意思是這太簡單了，但這仍然是正確的看待它的方式。我的意思是，顯然這裡有複雜的計算。即將發生的事有各種預測。我們來看看穆迪的分析以及他們對不利情景的預期和一致預測。

But at the end of the day, we put an overlay in that took us -- took us up a couple of basis points. We did that by taking a more dour view of the S3, the adverse [rate we put on] 80% weighting on that, and that's how we came up with this additional overlay there.

但到最後，我們還是增加了一個覆蓋層，這使我們的利潤上升了幾個基點。我們透過對 S3 採取更為嚴厲的審視來做到這一點，我們對其賦予了 80% 的不利 [利率] 權重，這就是我們在此提出這一額外覆蓋的原因。

I don't think we need it. But we're aware that others also have overlays. And so that's kind of a situation that we added to. I don't think that there's anything else that we need to do. And so I think that could go forward like that.

我認為我們不需要它。但我們知道其他人也有覆蓋。這就是我們所添加的一種情況。我認為我們不需要做任何其他事情了。所以我認為這可以繼續進行。

I'd add the varied nature of the ACL is if we had anything like that contemplated, it would already be in there. So we've looked as best as we can forward. We've taken that and brought it back to current, and we feel very comfortable with our ACL.

我想補充一點，ACL 的多樣性在於，如果我們考慮過類似的事情，它就已經在那裡了。因此，我們已盡最大努力向前邁進。我們已經將其恢復到當前狀態，我們對我們的 ACL 感到非常滿意。

Okay. Good. Fair enough. And then maybe, Dale, one for you, the crystal ball. Just your level of confidence in the high teen ROTCE level as you exit '25, I think suggest a pretty strong step-up in the earnings run rate exiting '25 when you flow through the model.

好的。好的。很公平。那麼也許，戴爾，給你一個水晶球。我認為，當您退出 25 年後，您對高青少年 ROTCE 水平的信心水平就表明，當您通過該模型時，退出 25 年後盈利運行率將有相當強勁的上升。

And just curious, does the Dale's crystal ball say [$15 to $17, $17 to $19]and just overall level of confidence in that.

只是好奇，戴爾的水晶球是否說 [15 美元到 17 美元，17 美元到 19 美元] 以及對此的總體信心水平。

Well, yeah, so I mean -- so we're at $14.5 here. I see it pretty easy to get over $15. And then we're kind of -- where can we go from there? I mean there could be some seasonality effects in there, the fourth quarter with maybe a little bit of a deposit drawdown, which has been our seasonal experience.

嗯，是的，我的意思是——我們現在是 14.5 美元。我認為獲得超過 15 美元是相當容易的。然後我們就有點──我們接下來可以去哪裡呢？我的意思是，其中可能會有一些季節性的影響，第四季可能會出現一點點存款減少，這是我們的季節性經驗。

But -- so -- but in terms of kind of what we see in front of us with the business opportunity. I don't know -- I'm not going to necessarily kind of draw a straight line to something. But I mean, to me, upper teens is north of $16, no higher than $19. So I'll call it that.

但 — — 所以 — — 但就我們面前所看到的商業機會而言。我不知道——我不一定會畫一條直線來代表某樣東西。但我的意思是，對我來說，十幾歲的價格是在 16 美元以上，不超過 19 美元。所以我就這麼稱呼它。

All right. And then just one more just on the expenses. You've got FTEs that have grown quite a bit sequentially and year-over-year. Is that all just category four prep or how would you split that between business growth and maybe regulatory?

好的。然後再談一下費用問題。您的全職當量 (FTE) 與上一季和前一年相比都有了大幅增長。這些只是第四類準備嗎，或者您如何將其在業務成長和監管之間分配？

There has been a category for our preparation, but in addition to that, we've actually been hiring people at AmeriHome, if you can believe it. So with what's transpired there, they've done some things that kind of help their revenue including some kind of direct originations in a limited basis, those margins are a big multiple over what they get on the wholesale side. And that's been another kind of notable area of investment.

我們的準備工作有一個類別，但除此之外，我們實際上還在為 AmeriHome 招募人員，如果你相信的話。因此，根據那裡發生的事情，他們做了一些有助於增加收入的事情，包括在有限的基礎上進行某種直接發起，這些利潤是他們在批發方面獲得的利潤的數倍。這也是另一個值得注意的投資領域。

Jared Shaw, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的賈里德·肖 (Jared Shaw)。

This is [John Ron] on for Jared. Just a couple of quick modeling questions. What portion of the securities book is floating rate?

我是 [John Ron]，代表 Jared 發言。僅幾個快速建模問題。證券帳簿中有多少部分是浮動利率？

15%.

15%。

Perfect. Okay. Great. And then just going into the components of loan growth for 2025 sounds pretty broad-based. Any differences in the spreads on those loans or the yields on those loans that you're they're adding on relative to what was added to the balance sheet in 2024 based on this different mix, competition level? Anything in there worth commentary on.

完美的。好的。偉大的。然後深入研究 2025 年貸款成長的組成部分，聽起來基礎相當廣泛。基於不同的組合和競爭水平，這些貸款的利差或收益率與 2024 年資產負債表中增加的金額相比有何差異？其中任何內容都值得評論。

Well, so I mean we sort through this regularly and look for the opportunities based upon our risk assessment of these categories and obviously the return opportunity, things that -- I mean, what we're doing in lot banking kind of had strong returns.

嗯，所以我的意思是我們會定期對此進行分類，並根據我們對這些類別的風險評估以及顯然的回報機會來尋找機會 - 我的意思是，我們在批量銀行業務中所做的事情獲得了豐厚的回報。

Some areas will kind of tighten up or bolting that we've (inaudible) one interested in, but we see opportunities in the (inaudible) close in regional banking side. I think we'll probably up a little bit in the market or (inaudible) to gain a little slower growth than we've had.

我們感興趣的一些領域將會收緊或收縮，但我們在區域銀行方面也看到了機會。我認為我們的市場可能會略有上漲，或（聽不清楚）實現比以前稍慢的成長。

I'd just add, we've had some real lift and a positive post in our investor (inaudible) costs (inaudible) we see in momentum we'll move into 2025.

我只想補充一點，我們在投資者（聽不清楚）成本（聽不清楚）方面取得了一些真正的提升和積極進展，我們看到我們將進入 2025 年的勢頭。

Okay. Perfect. And then just one last one. The mortgage servicing portfolio looks like it has been trending down over the last few quarters. Should we expect that to continue shrinking just outlook for that -- the size of that business.

好的。完美的。還有最後一個。過去幾個季度，抵押貸款服務組合似乎呈下降趨勢。我們是否應該預期該業務的規模將繼續萎縮？

So we're going to have that basically flat from here. It does move around a little bit just on valuation rates rise, it tends to increase, of course, because the extension of those mortgages and how long they're going to last before the refi. But no, I think you should look for that to be fairly flat going through this year.

因此從現在起我們將基本保持平穩。隨著估值利率的上升，它確實會發生輕微波動，當然，它往往會上升，這是因為這些抵押貸款的延長以及它們在再融資之前能持續多長時間。但不，我認為你應該期待今年這數字相當穩定。

Yeah, Steve, we'll sell a pool and then it will take a few months for us to replenish that. I mean, when you can sell in larger blocks you get better pricing. So you'll see it kind of move down, but then we'll replenish that over the next two, three months. So it should be relatively average the same number.

是的，史蒂夫，我們會賣掉一個游泳池，然後花幾個月的時間來補充它。我的意思是，當你能以更大的批量銷售時，你會得到更好的價格。因此，您會看到它有所下降，但我們將在接下來的兩三個月內進行補充。所以它應該是相對平均的相同數字。

This concludes the Q&A session. I will now hand the floor back to Dale Gibbons for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我將把發言權交還給戴爾·吉本斯，請他做最後發言。

Thank you all for your participation today. We appreciate your continued interest in our company. Have a good day.

謝謝大家今天的參與。感謝您對我們公司的持續關注。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you all for joining today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。