Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and a warm welcome to the Western Alliance Bancorporation Q3 2024 earnings call. My name is Emily, and I'll be coordinating your call today. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the call over to our host, Miles Pondelik, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Miles.

大家好，熱烈歡迎西方聯盟銀行 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫艾米麗，今天我將協調您的電話。（操作員指示）我現在將把電話轉給我們的主持人、投資者關係主管 Miles Pondelik。請繼續，邁爾斯。

Thank you, and welcome to Western Alliance Bank's third-quarter 2024 conference call. Our speakers today are Ken Vecchione, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dale Gibbons, Chief Financial Officer; and Tim Bruckner, our Chief Banking Officer for Regional Banking will join for Q&A.

謝謝，歡迎參加西部聯盟銀行 2024 年第三季電話會議。今天我們的演講者是總裁兼執行長 Ken Vecchione；財務長戴爾吉本斯 (Dale Gibbons)；我們的區域銀行首席銀行官 Tim Bruckner 將參加問答。

Before I hand the call over to Ken, please note that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Except as required by law, the company does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

在我將電話轉交給肯恩之前，請注意，今天的簡報包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險、不確定性和假設的影響。除法律要求外，本公司不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

For a more polite discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from any forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's SEC files, including the Form 8-K filed yesterday, which are available on the company's website.

如需對可能導致實際結果與任何前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的風險和不確定性進行更禮貌的討論，請參閱該公司的SEC 文件，包括昨天提交的8-K 表格（可在公司網站上獲取）。

Now for opening remarks, I'd like to turn the call over to Ken Vecchione.

現在，我想將電話轉給 Ken Vecchione 致開幕詞。

Good morning. As always, I'll make some brief comments about our third quarter earnings before turning the call over to Dale who will review our financial results in more detail. After I discuss our outlook for the remainder of 2024, Tim Bruckner will join us for Q&A. Western Alliance delivered solid third-quarter results and earned $1.80 per share. These results demonstrated the bank's ability to sustain diversified loan and deposit momentum as well as grow earnings during a changing rate environment.

早安.像往常一樣，在將電話轉給戴爾之前，我將對我們第三季的收益進行一些簡短的評論，戴爾將更詳細地審查我們的財務業績。在我討論了我們對 2024 年剩餘時間的展望後，蒂姆·布魯克納 (Tim Bruckner) 將與我們一起進行問答。Western Alliance 第三季業績強勁，每股收益 1.80 美元。這些結果表明該銀行有能力在不斷變化的利率環境下維持多元化的貸款和存款勢頭以及增加收益。

We produced healthy deposit growth of $1.8 billion or 11% annualized and HFI loan growth of $916 million or 7% annualized despite sluggish demand for overall credit in the economy. Our national diversified credit origination and deposit platforms uniquely position us to sustain strong deposit growth and then deploy this liquidity into attractive commercial loans where we can provide deep segment and product expertise. During a transitional period for the rate cycle that began in Q3, net interest income grew 25% annualized due to higher average earning assets.

儘管經濟中整體信貸需求低迷，但我們的存款健康成長了 18 億美元，年化成長率為 11%，HFI 貸款成長了 9.16 億美元，年化成長率為 7%。我們的全國性多元化信貸發放和存款平台使我們能夠保持強勁的存款成長，然後將這種流動性部署到有吸引力的商業貸款中，我們可以在其中提供深入的細分市場和產品專業知識。在第三季開始的利率週期過渡期間，由於平均收益資產增加，淨利息收入年化增加了 25%。

Net interest margin compressed 2 basis points because of lower yields on variable rate loans. Continued interest rate cuts will enable Western Alliance to realize significant funding cost savings in both interest-bearing and ECR-related deposits going forward. We anticipate a more meaningful benefit from lower rates in Q4 from a full-quarter impact of lower rates.

由於浮動利率貸款收益率下降，淨利差壓縮 2 個基點。持續降息將使西方聯盟能夠在計息存款和 ECR 相關存款方面實現顯著的融資成本節省。我們預計第四季度較低的利率會帶來更有意義的好處，因為較低的利率對整個季度都有影響。

Q3 results were modestly impacted by $4 billion of mortgage warehouse deposit growth driven by elevated mortgage refinance volumes, validating our operational excellence as we continue to win market share following several competitors retreating from the market. After the [Central Bank] Western Alliance is now the largest bank operating in this space.

第三季的業績受到抵押貸款再融資量增加推動的 40 億美元抵押倉庫存款成長的適度影響，這驗證了我們的卓越運營，因為在幾家競爭對手退出市場後，我們繼續贏得市場份額。西方聯盟現在是繼[中央銀行]之後在該領域運營的最大銀行。

This excess deposit growth somewhat impacted Q3 earnings from elevated deposit costs, but these deposits have helped cement core customer relationships, which will continue to drive strong risk-adjusted loan volume and spread income. Typical seasonal declines in mortgage warehouse deposit balances are poised to push Q4 ECR-related deposit costs materially lower.

存款超額成長在一定程度上影響了存款成本上升帶來的第三季收益，但這些存款有助於鞏固核心客戶關係，這將繼續推動強勁的風險調整貸款量和利差收入。抵押貸款倉庫存款餘額的典型季節性下降將推動第四季度 ECR 相關存款成本大幅下降。

Non-interest income increased $11 million or 10% quarter-over-quarter, but this growth was tempered by a decline in mortgage banking income. Our franchise remains poised specifically benefit from a resumption of stronger mortgage volume. Pre-provision net revenue grew marginally from Q2, while tangible book value per share climbed 19% year-over-year. Lastly, asset quality remains stable as non-performing assets to total assets declined 6 basis points to 45 basis points. Net charge-offs of 20 basis points landed within our Street guidance range.

非利息收入環比增長 1,100 萬美元，即 10%，但這種增長受到抵押貸款銀行收入下降的影響。我們的特許經營權仍然準備好從抵押貸款量恢復強勁中受益。撥備前淨收入較第二季小幅成長，而每股有形帳面價值較去年同期成長 19%。最後，資產品質維持穩定，不良資產佔總資產的比例下降6個基點至45個基點。20 個基點的淨沖銷落在我們的華爾街指引範圍內。

Dale will now take you through the results in more detail.

戴爾現在將帶您更詳細地了解結果。

Thanks, Ken. During the quarter, Western Alliance generated pre-provision net revenue of $286 million, net income of $200 million and earnings per share of $1.80. Net interest income increased $40 million from Q2 to $697 million, equating nearly 25% annualized growth because of higher average earning asset balances driven by loan growth.

謝謝，肯。本季度，Western Alliance 撥備前淨收入為 2.86 億美元，淨利為 2 億美元，每股收益為 1.80 美元。淨利息收入較第二季增加 4,000 萬美元，達到 6.97 億美元，年化成長率接近 25%，原因是貸款成長推動平均收益資產餘額增加。

Non-interest income of $126 million, was $11 million quarter-over-quarter from higher service charges and loan fees, benefiting from commercial banking fees and a new bank-owned life insurance policy, which, along with securities gains, helped mitigate lower mortgage banking income. Securities gains were taken as we sold for collateral held for a large bankruptcy deposit as it went into distribution.

非利息收入為1.26 億美元，環比增長1,100 萬美元，原因是服務費和貸款費上漲，受益於商業銀行費用和新的銀行擁有的人壽保險保單，加上證券收益，有助於緩解抵押貸款下降的影響銀行收入。當我們在大額破產存款進入分配時出售其持有的抵押品時，我們就獲得了證券收益。

Mortgage loan production rose 21% from Q2 and 10% year-over-year. Loan servicing revenue was negatively impacted by prepayment speeds accelerating due to the declining rate environment, which caused a negative change in the MSR fair value net of hedging of $15 million.

抵押貸款產量較第二季成長 21%，年增 10%。由於利率環境下降，預付款速度加快，貸款服務收入受到負面影響，導致 MSR 公允價值淨值出現 1,500 萬美元的負面變化。

Non-interest expense for the quarter was $537 million. Deposit costs of $208 million drove the quarter-over-quarter increase due to strong demand in mortgage warehouse. In aggregate, net interest income growth exceeded deposit growth by $6 million this quarter.

無息該季度的支出為 5.37 億美元。由於抵押貸款倉庫的強勁需求，2.08 億美元的存款成本推動了環比成長。整體而言，本季淨利息收入成長超過存款成長 600 萬美元。

It is important to emphasize the recent 50 basis point reduction in the Fed funds target rate occurred less than two weeks before the end of Q3. Consequently, rate reduction actions for ECR-related deposits were also backloaded. Seasonal outflows in mortgage warehouse from Q4 tax and insurance payments and a full quarter impact of lower rates make us confident Q3 will prove to be the high watermark in ECR-related deposit costs for this rate cycle.

需要強調的是，距離第三季結束不到兩週，聯邦基金目標利率最近下調了 50 個基點。因此，與 ECR 相關的存款的降息行動也被推遲。第四季稅收和保險支付造成的抵押貸款庫的季節性流出以及較低利率對整個季度的影響，使我們有信心第三季將成為本利率週期中與 ECR 相關的存款成本的高水位。

Provision expense of $34 million resulted from sustained loan growth and $27 million of net charge-offs. The balance sheet remained at approximately $80 billion of solid loan and deposit growth were offset by securities and cash declining $2.4 billion quarter-over-quarter and a further $2.6 billion reduction in period-end borrowings.

撥備費用為 3,400 萬美元，源自於持續的貸款成長和 2,700 萬美元的淨沖銷。資產負債表保持在約 800 億美元的水平，貸款和存款的穩健增長被證券和現金環比下降 24 億美元以及期末借款進一步減少 26 億美元所抵消。

A large distribution of bankruptcy settlement funds drove a notably Juris banking deposits, which allowed us to sell the collateralizing securities. Loans held for investment grew $916 million to over $53 billion while deposits grew $1.8 billion to $68 billion at quarter end. Tangible book value per share continues its expansion, rising 6.5% quarter-over-quarter to $51.98 and was aided by a large improvement in our AOCI position.

破產和解資金的大量分配推動了法律銀行存款的增加，這使我們能夠出售抵押證券。截至季末，投資貸款成長 9.16 億美元，達到 530 億美元以上，存款成長 18 億美元，達到 680 億美元。每股有形帳面價值持續擴張，季增 6.5% 至 51.98 美元，這得益於我們 AOCI 地位的大幅改善。

Loan growth of $916 million resulted from large contributions from regional banking as well as mortgage warehouse and MSR lending. We continue to diversify the loan portfolio as shown by C&I loans growing over $4 billion year-over-year and now accounting for 42% of the held for investment loan portfolio compared to 37% one year ago. At the same time, we lowered the overall allocation for commercial real estate investor and CLD categories show 29% to 27%.

貸款成長 9.16 億美元，得益於區域銀行業務以及抵押貸款倉庫和 MSR 貸款的大量貢獻。我們持續實現貸款組合多元化，工商業貸款年增超過 40 億美元，目前佔投資貸款組合持有量的 42%，而一年前為 37%。同時，我們將商業房地產投資者和CLD類別的整體配置下調了29%至27%。

Deposit growth of $1.8 billion was generated from seasonal inflows of mortgage warehouse which grew $4.1 billion, while our consumer digital channel increased $1.3 billion and continue to add more granular deposits uncorrelated with our commercial banking business lines. Owners Association deposits also posted growth in a seasonally softer quarter. As mentioned before, Juris banking deposits has decreased $2.7 billion. overall core deposit growth was $2 billion as we modestly reduced wholesale broker deposits by approximately $200 million.

存款增加18 億美元是由於抵押貸款倉庫的季節性流入增加了41 億美元，而我們的消費者數位管道增加了13 億美元，並繼續增加與我們的商業銀行業務線無關的更細化的存款。業主協會存款在季節性疲軟的季度中也出現成長。如前所述，Juris 銀行存款減少了 27 億美元。由於我們適度減少了批發經紀商存款約 2 億美元，核心存款整體成長了 20 億美元。

Turning to our net interest drivers. The yield on total securities increased 2 basis points to 4.89%. Our liquidity position remains solid as unencumbered high-quality liquid assets were 64% of securities and cash, while securities and cash were 24% of total assets. HFI loan yields decreased 14 basis points to 6.65 due to asset repricing for sofa-type loans in advance of the Fed's rate decision. The cost of interest-bearing deposits was 3 basis points higher as a result of $1.3 billion of quarterly deposit growth in our consumer digital channel.

轉向我們的淨利息驅動因素。總證券收益率上升2個基點至4.89%。我們的流動性狀況依然穩固，未支配的優質流動資產佔證券和現金的 64%，而證券和現金佔總資產的 24%。由於聯準會利率決定前沙發類貸款的資產重新定價，HFI 貸款殖利率下降 14 個基點至 6.65。由於我們的消費者數位通路季度存款增加了 13 億美元，因此計息存款成本上升了 3 個基點。

The total cost of funds declined 12 basis points to 2.67% and due to the deposit mix shifting towards noninterest-bearing and a smaller proportion of earning assets funded by borrowings. If you compare the difference between the period-end spot rates and average rates for the quarter, you'll see that the difference is wider for interest-bearing deposits compared to HFI loans. In other words, we are seeing funding cost tailwinds emerge outside of just ECR-related funding. In aggregate, net interest income increased $40 million from higher average earning asset balances and loan growth.

總資金成本下降 12 個基點至 2.67%，原因是存款結構轉向無息，且透過借款融資的獲利資產比例較小。如果您比較期末即期利率與季平均利率之間的差異，您會發現計息存款的差異比 HFI 貸款更大。換句話說，我們看到融資成本的順風車出現在 ECR 相關融資之外。總體而言，由於平均生息資產餘額增加和貸款成長，淨利息收入增加了 4,000 萬美元。

Net interest margin compressed 2 basis points from Q2 to 3.61, which would have been flat but to the new BOLI policy as $800 million of earning assets were deployed for this purpose. Regarding interest rate sensitivity, Western Alliance is liability sensitive on an earnings at risk basis. With a dynamic balance sheet, a minus 100 basis point rate ramp analysis indicates pretax interest-sensitive earnings should increase 1.5%.

淨息差較第二季壓縮 2 個基點至 3.61，如果沒有新的 BOLI 政策，淨息差本應持平，因為為此目的部署了 8 億美元的盈利資產。關於利率敏感性，西部聯盟在風險收益基礎上對負債敏感。透過動態資產負債表，負 100 個基點的利率斜坡分析顯示稅前利率敏感收益應增加 1.5%。

In this scenario, the expected negative impact on net interest income would be more than offset by expected reductions in ECR-related deposit costs as well as a pickup in mortgage banking income at a lower rate environment should unleash. Our adjusted efficiency ratio for the quarter was 53%, modestly higher operating expense growth compared to the revenue growth drove the 120 basis point increase from last quarter. Excluding the impact of the FDIC special assessment rebate in Q2, this ratio would have remained flat quarter-over-quarter.

在這種情況下，對淨利息收入的預期負面影響將被 ECR 相關存款成本的預期下降以及較低利率環境下抵押貸款銀行收入的回升所抵消。我們本季調整後的效率率為 53%，與營收成長相比，營運費用成長略高，推動比上季成長 120 個基點。排除第二季 FDIC 特別評估回扣的影響，該比率將環比保持持平。

Asset quality continues to remain relatively stable. In Q2, criticized assets rose $60 million as special mention loans declined $30 million while classified assets increased $90 million. Precise assets are up only $33 million from a year ago. We expect the total criticized asset pools remain relatively stable. Nonperforming assets as a percentage of total assets declined 6 basis points to 45% due to payoffs and sales.

資產品質持續保持相對穩定。第二季度，受批評的資產增加了 6,000 萬美元，特別關注貸款減少了 3,000 萬美元，而分類資產增加了 9,000 萬美元。精確資產僅比一年前增加了 3,300 萬美元。我們預期受批評資產池總量將維持相對穩定。由於償還和出售，不良資產佔總資產的百分比下降了 6 個基點至 45%。

Our non-performing assets consist primarily of CRE office loans, which is unsurprising given the environment characterized by still elevated interest rates and lower office property valuations. Quarterly net loan charge-offs were $26.6 million or 20 basis points of average loans. Provision expense of $34 million added reserves and concert with loan growth in addition to replenishing net charge-offs. Our ACL for funded loans rose $5 million from the prior quarter to $357 million. The total loan ACL with a funded loan ratio of 74 basis points was unchanged and covered 113% of nonperforming loans.

我們的不良資產主要包括商業房地產辦公室貸款，考慮到利率仍然較高、辦公室物業估值較低的環境，這並不令人意外。季度淨貸款沖銷額為 2,660 萬美元，即平均貸款的 20 個基點。3,400 萬美元的撥備費用增加了準備金，除了補充淨沖銷外，還與貸款成長保持一致。我們的融資貸款 ACL 較上一季增加 500 萬美元，達到 3.57 億美元。融資貸款比率為74個基點的貸款ACL總額維持不變，涵蓋了113%的不良貸款。

Slide 14 shows the updated ACL block that we have regularly provided to add more context behind our allowance methodology relative to peers. Our ACL list from 74 basis points to 1.31% and when incorporating the effect of credit linked notes, which have provided a pool of prepaid insurance money to us to cover charge-offs as well as low to no loss loans like equity fund resources or low LTV and high FICO residential portfolio and mortgage warehouse loans. Compared to the $50 billion to $250 billion asset peer banks we benefit from a greater CLN support as well as a greater percentage of loans and low to no loss categories.

投影片 14 顯示了我們定期提供的更新後的 ACL 區塊，以在我們的津貼方法（相對於同行）背後添加更多背景資訊。我們的ACL 清單從74 個基點到1.31%，並考慮到信用掛鉤票據的影響，這些票據為我們提供了預付保險資金池，以覆蓋沖銷以及低損失至無損失貸款，如股本基金資源或低損失貸款。與資產規模為 500 億至 2500 億美元的同業銀行相比，我們受益於更大的 CLN 支援以及更大比例的貸款和低損失甚至無損失類別。

Our CET1 ratio increased approximately 20 basis points to 11.2%. Our tangible common equity to total assets ratio moved up approximately 50 basis points from Q2 to 7.2% as our all other comprehensive income loss position recovered substantially due to a lower rate environment. Given the conversation about Basel 3 and game capital, I also mentioned that our CET1 ratio, including AOCI and our loss reserve is 11.1%, which is 50 basis points above the second quarter adjusted CET1 ratio of 10.6% and ranks in the top quartile of our asset class peers.

我們的 CET1 比率增加了約 20 個基點，達到 11.2%。我們的有形普通股與總資產的比率較第二季上升約 50 個基點至 7.2%，因為較低的利率環境使我們所有其他的綜合收益損失狀況大幅恢復。考慮到巴塞爾3和遊戲資本的討論，我還提到我們的CET1比率（包括AOCI和我們的損失準備金）為11.1%，比第二季度調整後的CET1比率10.6%高出50個基點，位居前四分之一。

Finally, tangible book value per share increased $2.19 quarter-over-quarter to $51.98 for earnings growth and our negative AOC acquisition improving by almost a third. Our consistent upward trajectory and tangible book value per share is outpaced peers by tenfold since the end of 2013. Even when incorporating Q3 data for peers, which is not yet available, while relative performance will still be well in excess of their TPV growth.

最後，由於獲利成長以及我們收購 AOC 的負面影響，每股有形帳面價值較上季成長 2.19 美元，達到 51.98 美元。自 2013 年底以來，我們持續的上升軌跡和每股有形帳面價值是同業的十倍。即使納入尚未獲得的同業第三季數據，相對業績仍將遠遠超過其冠捷成長率。

I'll now turn the call back to Ken.

我現在將電話轉回給肯。

Thanks, Dale. Following our Q3 results, we updated our 2024 and Q4 guidance as follows: we expect loan growth of approximately $1.25 billion next quarter to be achieved in a safe, sound and thoughtful manner. Our current 78% HFI loan-to-deposit ratio provides ample flexibility to selectively originate attractive loans. Deposits are expected to temporarily decline $2 billion in Q4 due to typical seasonal outflows of property tax and insurance payments in mortgage warehouse and active management of our deposit mix to maximize deposit betas and lower the cost of interest-bearing and ECR-related deposit costs.

謝謝，戴爾。繼第三季業績之後，我們更新了 2024 年和第四季的指引如下：我們預計下季貸款將成長約 12.5 億美元，將以安全、穩健和周到的方式實現。我們目前 78% 的 HFI 貸存比為選擇性地發放有吸引力的貸款提供了充足的靈活性。由於抵押貸款倉庫中財產稅和保險付款的典型季節性流出以及我們積極管理存款組合以最大化存款貝塔並降低計息成本和 ECR 相關存款成本，預計第四季度存款將暫時減少 20 億美元。

Turning to capital. We reiterate that our CET1 ratio will remain at 11% as loan growth continues. Net interest income is expected to decline approximately 3% next quarter due to market tied variable loans repricing slightly ahead of funding costs. This dynamic is a function of the transitional period to a lower rate environment that got underway in Q3. However, ECR-related deposit costs are expected to significantly decline by approximately 25% quarter-over-quarter in Q4 and outpaced a decline in net interest income.

轉向資本。我們重申，隨著貸款持續成長，我們的 CET1 比率將維持在 11%。由於市場掛鉤可變貸款重新定價略高於融資成本，預計下季淨利息收入將下降約 3%。這種動態是第三季開始向較低利率環境過渡的函數。然而，預計第四季度與 ECR 相關的存款成本將環比大幅下降約 25%，並且超過淨利息收入的降幅。

We expect net interest margin incorporating ECR cost to have bottomed in Q3 and to experience continued expansion into future periods. Non-interest income should increase around 8% to 12% next quarter from traction in cultivating commercial banking fee opportunities and firming mortgage banking income. Noninterest should decline between 5% and 9%, mostly from the expected drop in ECR-related deposit costs given the pivot in the rate environment and the typical Q4 seasonal factors previously discussed.

我們預計，包含 ECR 成本的淨利差將在第三季觸底，並在未來期間持續擴張。由於商業銀行收費機會的培育和抵押貸款銀行收入的穩固，下季度非利息收入預計將增長 8% 至 12% 左右。非利息應下降 5% 至 9% 之間，主要是由於考慮到利率環境的樞紐和前面討論的典型的第四季度季節性因素，與 ECR 相關的存款成本預期下降。

Asset quality remains in line with our expectations. We expect steady net charge-offs in Q4 on the 20 basis point area, which implies full year 2024 net charge-offs should be no greater than 20 basis points. We believe this will still rank among the best of our peers. Lastly, the effective tax rate for full year 2024 is now estimated to fall between 20% and 22%.

資產品質仍然符合我們的預期。我們預計第四季淨沖銷將穩定在 20 個基點區域，這意味著 2024 年全年淨沖銷應不超過 20 個基點。我們相信這仍將在同行中名列前茅。最後，目前估計 2024 年全年的有效稅率將降至 20% 至 22% 之間。

At this time, Dale, Tim and I look forward to answering your questions.

此時此刻，戴爾、提姆和我期待著回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

易卜拉欣·普納瓦拉，美國銀行。

Hey, good morning. So just first question around deposits. Trying to understand, so we've I'm assuming you were aware of the seasonality last quarter when you raised the deposit guidance for the year. So I'm just trying to understand if you can give us a little color on the settlement that impact.

嘿，早安。所以第一個問題是關於存款的。試圖理解，所以我們假設您在上個季度提高今年的存款指引時就意識到了季節性。所以我只是想了解一下您是否可以給我們一些有關和解影響的資訊。

And how pronounced is the seasonality versus just some of these chunkier outflows? And are there more such deposits that could leave the bank that could have some meaningful impact on near-term NII trajectory? If we can address NII, both in terms of larger outflows and then how impactful is the 4Q seasonality because I'm not sure it was that prevalent in the fourth quarter of last year. Thanks.

與其中一些較大的資金流出相比，季節性有多明顯？是否有更多此類存款可能離開銀行，對近期NII 軌跡產生一些有意義的影響？如果我們能夠解決國家資訊基礎設施問題，無論是在更大的資金流出方面，還是在第四季度的季節性影響方面，因為我不確定去年第四季是否如此普遍。謝謝。

Yes. Thank you. I think you've confused a few things. So let me straighten that out. Number one, in Q3, we did see a very large settlement out of our Juris banking group that was a little bit earlier than our expectations. We had expected it to happen into 2025, the settlement moved up earlier. Always hard to forecast when those things are going to be dependent on the court system and it depends on lawyers agreeing to what the settlement terms are.

是的。謝謝。我認為你混淆了一些事情。那麼就讓我來澄清一下。第一，在第三季度，我們確實看到 Juris 銀行集團達成了一項非常大的和解，這比我們的預期早了一點。我們原本預計這會發生在 2025 年，但和解時間提前了。總是很難預測這些事情何時將取決於法院系統，並且取決於律師是否同意和解條款。

So that came out. And so absent that, we would have grown deposits in Q3 by $5 billion. So we actually grew deposits $2 billion, we paid down $200 million of broker deposits, and that got us to the net growth of $1.8 billion. In Q4, that's when you'll see the seasonal decline of warehouse lending group, which we always have in terms of deposits flowing out escrow insurance and P&I payments that happen at the end of the year. And that's why we've said that outflow will push Q4's deposit levels down $2 billion.

於是就出來了。如果沒有這一點，我們第三季的存款將增加 50 億美元。因此，我們實際上增加了 20 億美元的存款，支付了 2 億美元的經紀人存款，這使我們的淨成長達到 18 億美元。在第四季度，那時你會看到倉庫貸款組的季節性下降，就存款流出託管保險和年底發生的保賠付款而言，我們總是有這種情況。這就是為什麼我們說資金外流將使第四季的存款水準下降 20 億美元。

However, our balance sheet deposit growth or I'll say, our balance sheet growth all in, as you move forward into 2025, certainly for deposits remains unchanged which is we expect to have $2 billion per quarter on average, $2 billion per quarter of deposit growth. We have a good line of sight into that. We've got clarity into that because of the number of home-grown deposit platforms that we have built over the years starting with our grand daddy, which is the HOA business.

然而，我們的資產負債表存款成長，或者我會說，我們的資產負債表成長，隨著進入 2025 年，存款肯定保持不變，即我們預計平均每季 20 億美元，每季 20 億美元。存款成長。我們對此有很好的了解。我們已經清楚地了解了這一點，因為我們從我們的祖父（即 HOA 業務）開始，多年來建立了許多本土存款平台。

Also, our warehouse lending group has a very strong deposit business. and we added business escrow services in the last two years, settlement services, sometimes known as Juris banking, and our consumer digital platform as well and also corporate trust.

此外，我們的倉庫借貸集團擁有非常強大的存款業務。過去兩年我們增加了商業託管服務、結算服務（有時稱為 Juris 銀行業務）、我們的消費者數位平台以及企業信託。

So these are all homegrown deposit businesses that a couple of years ago really never existed inside of our bank and now are beginning to perform admirably. In addition, we've got good deposit growth that comes from our commercial lines of business or previously known as our -- as the regional business. So that's sort of the deposits and will just on balance sheet, I'll just say, and we also expect, as we move forward into 2025 to see deposit on loan growth. average $1 billion or so per quarter. And we're running a very -- a much lower deposit loan-to-deposit ratio.

因此，這些都是本土存款業務，幾年前，我們銀行內部根本不存在這些業務，但現在開始表現出色。此外，我們的商業業務或以前稱為區域業務的存款成長良好。我只想說，這就是存款，只會出現在資產負債表上，我們也預計，隨著我們進入 2025 年，存款貸款增長。平均每季約 10 億美元。我們的存款貸存比非常低。

So if we have the opportunity to put on, as we say, good, safe and thoughtful loan growth, we have the liquidity to do that, and we could increase our loan growth throughout the year. Dale, some of these businesses report to you. Do you want to add any comments?

因此，如果我們有機會實現我們所說的良好、安全和周到的貸款成長，我們就有流動性來做到這一點，並且我們可以增加全年的貸款成長。戴爾，其中一些企業向您報告。您想添加任何評論嗎？

No. I think that's pretty fulsome, Ken. But maybe an addition Yeah, so we see that we have kind of the liquidity that we need to be able to proceed. And as such, pushing up our loan-to-deposit ratio into the 80s from below 80 principally on an HFI basis. we should be able to do that. And there isn't anything like this ever game on the balance sheet sell. I mean, this was our largest depositor in the whole bank. And so there isn't maybe follow-through coming in Q4, Q1 or whatever.

不。我覺得很充實，肯。但也許是一個補充是的，所以我們看到我們擁有我們需要能夠繼續進行的流動性。因此，主要是在 HFI 的基礎上，將我們的貸存比率從 80 以下推高到 80 左右。我們應該能夠做到這一點。而且在資產負債表上還沒有類似的遊戲出售。我的意思是，這是我們整個銀行最大的儲戶。因此，第四季、第一季或其他地方可能不會有後續行動。

Yeah. Ebrahim, I think we might have left that one of the last pieces of your question. You asked, did I hear correctly sort of directionally what's going to happen with net interest income? Was that one of your questions as well?

是的。易卜拉欣，我想我們可能已經留下了你問題的最後一部分。你問，我是否正確地聽到了淨利息收入將會發生什麼？這也是你的問題之一嗎？

It was going to be my follow-up. So please, I think you've given the guidance. Just talk to us how that goes, NII plus ECR deposit costs with or without rate cuts?

這將是我的後續行動。所以，我想你已經給了指導。請告訴我們，在降息或不降息的情況下，NII 加上 ECR 存款成本如何？

Well, I kind of feel like I asked your question for you. I might as well answer it. All right. So as we look forward -- if we look forward, first, our rate is for two more cuts this year, November and December. And then we have four scheduled for next year at the end of each quarter is the way we forecasted, right?

嗯，我覺得我是在替你問問題。我也不妨回答一下。好的。因此，當我們展望未來時，首先，我們的利率是今年再降息兩次，即 11 月和 12 月。然後我們在明年每個季度末安排了四個計劃，這就是我們預測的方式，對吧？

So what you'll see overall, when you look at our balance sheet, inclusive of deposit costs, we are liability-sensitive. So our adjusted net interest margin, that's net interest margin, less deposit costs will rise in Q4 and will continue to rise through 2025. And and net interest income less deposit costs, okay?

因此，總體而言，當您查看我們的資產負債表（包括存款成本）時，您會發現我們對責任敏感。因此，我們調整後的淨利差，即淨利差減去存款成本，將在第四季度上升，並將持續上升到 2025 年。淨利息收入減去存款成本，好嗎？

Those dollars will continue to rise steadily in Q4 and then as you roll forward into 2025. For the obvious reasons, deposit costs are declining, okay? So plus the balance sheet growth is going to still remain robust, and we have some volume pickup in that as well. for the net interest income less deposit costs growing throughout 2025 from 2024. Actually, Q4 '24 should be higher than Q3 2024 as well, if I wasn't clear enough on that. Okay?

這些美元將在第四季度繼續穩步增長，然後進入 2025 年。由於顯而易見的原因，存款成本正在下降，好嗎？因此，資產負債表的成長仍將保持強勁，而且我們的交易量也有所回升。自 2024 年起，淨利息收入減去存款成本將在 2025 年持續成長。實際上，如果我對此還不夠清楚的話，24 年第四季也應該高於 2024 年第三季。好的？

Okay. All very clear. I'll let Jon ask you whether or not you can earn 9-plus next year.

好的。一切都非常清楚。我會讓喬恩問你明年是否能賺到9+。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥克格拉蒂，KBW。

Hey. Good morning. Dale I was wondering if you could help or Ken, on the outlook for noninterest income for the fourth quarter. I know this quarter had an MSR adjustment, but maybe unpack the 8% to 12% growth in fees for Q4 because some of the line items moving around a little bit?

嘿。早安.戴爾（Dale），我想知道您或肯（Ken）能否幫助您了解第四季度非利息收入的前景。我知道本季進行了 MSR 調整，但也許第四季度的費用增加了 8% 到 12%，因為某些訂單項目略有變動？

Yes. So I mean, the MSR piece, I mean, a lot of that was really related to the turn in rates. So we saw a 50% increase in constant prepayment rates on our mortgage book, just at the initiation of kind of lower mortgage rates, which is to a significant are kind of backtracked presently. We don't see that happening again, but maybe there was a little more pent-up behavior than we thought. And so the result of that is the value of that asset fell more than what the gain would have on the -- on what we put against it to hold the valuation at constant.

是的。所以我的意思是，MSR 部分，我的意思是，其中很多確實與週轉率有關。因此，我們看到抵押貸款帳簿上的固定預付款率增加了 50%，而這正是抵押貸款利率降低的開始，目前這種情況在很大程度上已經有所回落。我們不會再看到這種情況發生，但也許被壓抑的行為比我們想像的還要多。因此，其結果是該資產的價值下跌幅度超過了我們為保持估值不變而對其進行的對抗所帶來的收益。

And then going forward, so we talked about a couple of things. So one of them is we did a BOLI transaction. That's going to continue. And that will -- those new revenues will be consistent there. You can see what we have in terms of kind of service charges.

然後繼續前進，我們討論了幾件事。其中之一是我們進行了 BOLI 交易。這種情況將會持續下去。這些新收入將保持一致。您可以看到我們的服務收費種類。

It was up from the second quarter. We think that, that number is also consistent. We had some securities gains. We do have some other collateralized supposes, not nearly of the magnitude that we talked about with the one that went into distribution in the third quarter. I think we're probably going to have some more security gains, too, as we sell off the collateral related to those.

較第二季度有所上升。我們認為，這個數字也是一致的。我們獲得了一些證券收益。我們確實還有一些其他抵押假設，但其規模遠沒有我們討論的第三季分配的假設那麼大。我認為，當我們出售與這些相關的抵押品時，我們也可能獲得更多的安全收益。

All of that really actually improves our liquidity because when you have a collateralized suppose, you really can't do anything else with it. as these things as we're able to move that and substitute different deposit situations for that, it gives us an opportunity to really push into higher return assets than what it's in presently.

所有這些確實提高了我們的流動性，因為當你有抵押假設時，你真的無法用它做任何其他事情。因為我們能夠改變這一點並用不同的存款情況來代替它，所以它給了我們一個機會真正投入比目前更高回報的資產。

Okay. And then just, I guess, my follow-up. The security gains you mentioned, is that in the guide? And I guess, a similar magnitude?

好的。然後，我想，我的後續行動。您提到的安全收益，在指南中嗎？我猜，類似的幅度？

It would be in the guide for a smaller magnitude than what we had in the third quarter.

指南中的幅度將小於第三季的幅度。

Okay.

好的。

Jared Shaw, Barclays.

賈里德·肖，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good morning. Maybe looking at the loan growth that you had referenced, especially on the C&I side, where are you seeing opportunities for that -- and maybe if you could just give us a little bit of early look at '25 in terms of sort of the pipelines and the expectation for the sustainability of that growth?

嗨，早安。也許看看你提到的貸款成長，特別是在工商業方面，你在哪裡看到了這方面的機會——也許你能給我們一些關於 25 年管道類型的早期了解以及對這種增長可持續性的期望？

Yeah. So as I said, this quarter, we grew $900 million. That's about 7% annualized to total loans of about billion. It really came from three or four segments of our portfolio. The regional group grew all in about $300 million warehouse lending grew almost $400 million, some leveraged finance and some resource financing when you combine those together, another $300 million. So it was almost $33 million, $34 million and $3 million. That got us to nearly $1 billion of loan growth for this quarter.

是的。正如我所說，本季我們實現了 9 億美元的成長。相當於貸款總額約 10 億美元的年增長率約為 7%。它確實來自我們投資組合的三到四個部分。區域集團整體成長約 3 億美元，倉庫貸款成長了近 4 億美元，一些槓桿融資和一些資源融資，如果把這些加在一起，又成長了 3 億美元。所以大約是 3300 萬美元、3400 萬美元和 300 萬美元。這使我們本季的貸款增加了近 10 億美元。

So as we look going forward, we see a couple of areas that give us confidence to continue to restate and reiterate the guide of $1 billion in quarterly loan growth. First, our note financing, MSR lending, warehouse lending group businesses are showing good pipelines, and we like this type of financing because they are generally shorter duration loans, good risk reward.

因此，當我們展望未來時，我們看到幾個領域讓我們有信心繼續重申和重申季度貸款將成長 10 億美元的指導方針。首先，我們的票據融資、MSR貸款、倉庫貸款集團業務表現出良好的管道，我們喜歡這種類型的融資，因為它們通常是期限較短的貸款，風險回報良好。

And they also allow us to evaluate credit decisions and collateral on a continuous basis, which goes to our allowance for loan loss reserves, and it goes to our lower credit losses that we have. But this is good collateral, but also we've never taken a loss at any of those categories. since we've been in these businesses.

它們還使我們能夠持續評估信貸決策和抵押品，這將計入我們的貸款損失準備金準備金，並降低我們的信用損失。但這是很好的抵押品，而且我們從未在任何這些類別上遭受過損失。自從我們從事這些業務以來。

Then I would say lot banking, resort financing and our regional commercial lending provides the additional value or added value of growing our loans but also provides loan growth that comes along with more treasury management fee income and also allows us to gather lower-cost operating accounts. And so that's another area that we like.

然後我想說的是，大量銀行業務、度假村融資和我們的區域商業貸款提供了增加貸款的附加價值或附加價值，但也提供了貸款增長，伴隨著更多的財務管理費收入，也使我們能夠收集成本更低的營運帳戶。這是我們喜歡的另一個領域。

Overall, if you look at our performance year-to-date, we really have focused more on the C&I side, and you see our total growth for the year has been all on C&I, and we've downplayed construction lending and development. And we've also kept our CRE owner-occupied flat as well, and that hasn't grown. And we've also taken down our residential loans, which carry a lower yield to it.

總的來說，如果你看看我們今年迄今為止的表現，我們確實更關注 C&I 方面，你會發現我們今年的總增長全部來自 C&I，而我們淡化了建築貸款和開發。我們也保留了 CRE 業主自用公寓，但數量並沒有增加。我們也取消了收益率較低的住宅貸款。

So we'll have some opportunity to put some -- we put new loans on the books to have them come in at a higher yield. So I hope that kind of gives you a sense of how we're thinking about 2025 and what we're doing to prepare for it.

因此，我們將有機會發放一些新貸款，以提高它們的收益率。因此，我希望這能讓您了解我們如何看待 2025 年以及我們正在為此做哪些準備。

Okay. That's good. Thanks. And then just as my follow-up, looking at capital with the 11% sort of, I won't call it target, but calling out 11% or above that. Should we expect you to continue to grow CET1 from this 11%, too? Or would there be other capital management alternatives that you you'd utilize here?

好的。那挺好的。謝謝。然後，正如我的後續行動，以 11% 的資本來看，我不會稱之為目標，但會呼籲 11% 或更高。我們是否應該期望您將 CET1 也從這 11% 繼續成長？或者您會在這裡使用其他資本管理替代方案嗎？

Yeah. I understand the question. So for our forecasting for 2025, we are assuming CET1 stays at or above 11% and stays there modestly above -- at or above 11% because we think there's going to be -- or there could be more loan growth coming our way than the $1 billion per quarter. And we want to have that CET1 dry powder to support that. And that's sort of our going-in program.

是的。我明白這個問題。因此，對於我們對 2025 年的預測，我們假設 CET1 保持在 11% 或以上，並且保持在 11% 或以上，因為我們認為將會如此，或者我們的貸款成長可能會超過 11%。美元。我們希望有 CET1 乾粉來支持這一點。這就是我們的入門計畫。

In addition, as we get bigger, okay, I know we're $80 billion and our total assets came down a little bit from Q2 to Q3. But as we get bigger and we get closer to the category for bank comparisons, which we do today. We look at other measurements of where adjusted CET1 is that CET1 less the AOCI plus the allowance for loan loss reserves. And we want to target being in that upper quartile that Dale discussed in his prepared remarks. And so we're looking at that as a way to guide us as we continue to grow.

此外，隨著我們規模的擴大，好吧，我知道我們的規模是 800 億美元，我們的總資產從第二季到第三季略有下降。但隨著我們規模的擴大，我們越來越接近銀行比較的類別，就像我們今天所做的那樣。我們查看調整後的 CET1 的其他衡量標準，即 CET1 減去 AOCI 加上貸款損失準備金準備金。我們的目標是進入戴爾在他準備好的演講中討論的上四分之一。因此，我們將其視為指導我們不斷發展的一種方式。

Matthew Clark, Piper Sandler.

馬修·克拉克，派珀·桑德勒。

Hey. Good morning, everyone. Thank you. First question around the ECR-related costs. Given the volume and rate dynamic going forward and assuming either your rate assumptions that you laid out earlier or the forward curve, what is the good range of expectations for customer service cost dollars in 2025?

嘿。大家早安。謝謝。第一個問題是關於 ECR 相關成本。考慮到未來的數量和費率動態，並假設您先前提出的費率假設或遠期曲線，2025 年客戶服務成本美元的良好預期範圍是多少？

So the reason why has been increasing is really related to -- it's become skewed more toward the mortgage warehouse, which has about 100% beta. And so we expect that to unwind in a similar fashion as it came in. Hence, Ken's comment that we believe we're going to see a 25% reduction in these ECR costs in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter. And that should continue as we go into next year. Again, so we've had a scenario whereby our HOA deposits have consistently risen year in, year out.

因此，成長的原因確實與——它變得更加偏向抵押貸款倉庫有關，而抵押貸款倉庫的貝塔係數約為 100%。因此，我們預計這種情況會以與進來時類似的方式緩解。因此，Ken 表示，我們相信第四季的 ECR 成本將比第三季減少 25%。當我們進入明年時，這種情況應該會繼續下去。同樣，我們也遇到過這樣的情況：我們的 HOA 存款年復一年持續成長。

We expect that to continue, while the growth in our mortgage warehouse is going to be tempered. You're going to see an outflow primarily related to insurance payments that are made in the fourth quarter, and that's what's going to pull the total deposit number down. But it's also going to be an area of less focus for us kind of going forward in terms of growth. So in other words, we're going to have an opportunity to be able to lower those costs kind of in lock step to FOMC action, and in fact, in some cases, above 100%.

我們預計這種情況將持續下去，而我們的抵押貸款倉庫的成長將受到抑制。您將看到主要與第四季度的保險付款相關的資金外流，這將導致存款總額下降。但在成長方面，這也將成為我們不太關注的領域。換句話說，我們將有機會降低這些成本，並與 FOMC 的行動保持一致，事實上，在某些情況下，降低幅度超過 100%。

Above 100%.

100%以上。

Yes. And to answer -- because you asked the dollar question, Dale gave you a percentage answer. But that 25%-ish for Q4 is about a $40 million decline -- $50 million. Sorry. I'm sorry, my bad, a $50 million decline from Q2 to Q3, right? Just remember, Q2 to -- I'm sorry, Q3 -- I'm sorry, Q3 to Q4, I meant to say it's about $50 million. And remember, you got that 50 basis point bank that came out of Q3. So don't model that as $50 million per quarter, a modeling as rates coming down in a very methodical way.

是的。為了回答——因為你問了美元的問題，戴爾給了你一個百分比的答案。但第四季 25% 左右的損失約為 4000 萬美元 - 5000 萬美元。對不起。抱歉，我的錯，從第二季到第三季減少了 5000 萬美元，對嗎？請記住，第二季度到 - 對不起，第三季度 - 對不起，第三季度到第四季度，我的意思是大約 5000 萬美元。請記住，您獲得了第三季推出的 50 家基點銀行。因此，不要將其建模為每季 5000 萬美元，而是將其建模為費率以非常有條理的方式下降。

Okay. So it sounds like it's more rate driven, not volume-driven kind of -- okay. Got it. Okay. And then just on the -- your kind of a blended question around loan yields. I know SOFR came down ahead of the Fed cuts, and I'm sure that hurt a little bit. It also looked like your loan fees came down to 15 basis points from 24 bps in the prior quarter, and they had been running around that level for a few quarters. I guess just what happened there? And then how do we think about the overall NIM in the near term?

好的。所以聽起來它更多的是速率驅動，而不是音量驅動——好吧。知道了。好的。然後就是關於貸款收益率的混合問題。我知道 SOFR 在聯準會降息之前就已經下降，我確信這會造成一些傷害。看起來你的貸款費用也從上一季的 24 個基點下降到了 15 個基點，而且幾個季度以來一直在這個水平附近運行。我想那兒到底發生了什麼事？那我們如何看待近期的整體淨利差？

Yes. I think the low fee number is really -- I mean, you should go with the kind of the current run rate that we had in that period. In terms of the NIM, I mean, we mentioned in our slide that on a net interest income basis alone, we're expecting to see a contraction in the fourth quarter. But that will be more than made up for. So as Ken talked about earlier, we're looking for a combined NIM, including the ECR which we expect that the global watermark was actually in the third quarter of 2024 and will increase in each successive quarter through next year.

是的。我認為低費用數字確實 - 我的意思是，你應該採用我們在那段時期的當前運行費率。就淨利差而言，我的意思是，我們在幻燈片中提到，僅以淨利息收入為基礎，我們預計第四季度將出現收縮。但這將足以彌補。因此，正如 Ken 之前提到的，我們正在尋找合併的 NIM，包括 ECR，我們預計全球水印實際上是在 2024 年第三季度，並且到明年每個連續季度都會增加。

Bernard Von Gizycki, Deutsche Bank.

伯納德·馮·吉茲基，德意志銀行。

Hey, guys, good morning. Just on mortgage, you previously obviously guided to 3Q being seasonally weaker with the loan production volumes were up nicely versus 2Q while the gain on sale margins declined. And obviously, you called out the negative MSR mark. Could you just talk to the puts and takes on how high demand maybe needs to pick up to see a pickup in Regina margins?

嘿，夥計們，早安。就抵押貸款而言，您之前顯然預計第三季季節性疲軟，貸款產量較第二季大幅上升，而銷售利潤率收益下降。顯然，你指出了負面的 MSR 標記。您能否談談看跌期權和看跌期權，可能需要多高的需求才能看到里賈納利潤率的上升？

That is something that is a little difficult to handicap to be very honest with you. Coming into the quarter, mortgage rates at the end of Q2 were up around 7%, right? And they declined during the quarter to about $605 million and today, they're in the $650 million area. And so for us to handicap that, that's been a little bit of a struggle. It's based on consumer behavior of cost, and it's also based on consumer timing, i.e.

老實說，這有點難以阻止。進入本季度，第二季末抵押貸款利率上漲了 7% 左右，對吧？該季度的銷售額下降至約 6.05 億美元，而如今已降至 6.5 億美元。因此，對我們來說，要阻止這一點，這是一個有點困難的過程。它是基於消費者的成本行為，也基於消費者的時間安排，即

if you know there are a couple of the rate cuts coming at you, would you go out today and buy a home when you know rates are coming. And so what we say in the mortgage business is, at least what we have been saying is people love their mortgage rates, they hate their home. And now we're trying to see if people want to find a new home and just rent their mortgage rate and then refi as they go forward.

如果您知道您將面臨幾次降息，那麼當您知道降息即將到來時，您今天會出去買房子嗎？因此，我們在抵押貸款業務中所說的是，至少我們一直在說的是，人們喜歡他們的抵押貸款利率，但他們討厭他們的房子。現在我們正在嘗試了解人們是否想找到一套新房子並僅以抵押貸款利率出租，然後在前進時重新融資。

Okay. And then just as we think about maybe mortgage more broadly and just the dynamics like you mentioned with mortgage rates coming down closer to 6% and then backing off. What really gets mortgage for you guys? I think in the past, you've said maybe like the 3, 4 rate cuts kind of help and maybe a low 6% is really what's meaningful to increase production. But just kind of wanted to get your thoughts like maybe the 6.5% hopefully comes down again, but it is based on some of the pull forward of the rate cut expectation. So just want to get your thoughts on maybe a mortgage rate level that you think the production volumes kind of pick up and revenues follow?

好的。然後，正如我們考慮更廣泛的抵押貸款以及您提到的動態，抵押貸款利率下降到接近 6%，然後有所回落。你們真正獲得抵押貸款的是什麼？我想在過去，你說過也許像 3、4 次降息會有所幫助，也許 6% 的低利率對增加產量確實有意義。但我只是想聽聽大家的想法，例如 6.5% 的利率有望再次下降，但這是基於降息預期的一些提前。那麼，只想了解您對抵押貸款利率水準的看法，您認為產量會有所回升，收入也會隨之增加？

Yeah. I think if you're still beginning to see a repeat of the early part of Q3, where rates coming down into the low 6s, that begins to pick up the volume. You then begin to gather some speed once you break the 6, the 6 barrier is the equivalent of the -- for those that remember the 4-minute breaking the 4-minute mile, okay?

是的。我認為，如果您仍然開始看到第三季初期的情況重演，即利率降至 6 低點，那麼成交量就會開始增加。一旦你突破了 6 英里，你就開始加速，對於那些還記得 4 分鐘打破 4 分鐘一英里的人來說，6 英里障礙相當於 - 好嗎？

And once you break that 4-minute mile of under 6 and have a 5 handle to begin with, then we really think if the sweet spot is somewhere in that 5.50 to 5.75, that's record that's great opportunities for us, okay? And that's sort of how we think. So we need to break the barrier and then as it drops into that 550 area, that's where we think there's a lot more volume coming our way.

一旦你打破了6 英里以下的4 分鐘英里並且一開始就有了5 英里，那麼我們真的認為如果最佳點在5.50 到5.75 之間，那麼這個記錄對我們來說是很好的機會，好嗎？這就是我們的想法。因此，我們需要打破障礙，然後當它跌入 550 區域時，我們認為會有更多的成交量出現。

I might say a more tempered rate decline, we actually think works in our favor. And that is if things fall really suddenly, I think it's going to maybe have almost a rush of refinance that may not last as much. And part of the reason why mortgage rates are elevated relative to the 10-year is we believe it's simply because there's an expectation that if you refi right now, you're going to refine again in six months, it's not going to be worth all the processing costs to get that done.

我可能會說，利率下降幅度更大，我們實際上認為這對我們有利。也就是說，如果情況真的突然下降，我認為可能會出現再融資熱潮，但這種情況可能不會持續那麼久。抵押貸款利率相對於 10 年期貸款利率升高的部分原因是，我們認為這僅僅是因為人們預計，如果您現在重新貸款，您將在六個月內再次精修，這是不值得的。該任務的處理成本。

And so if that view were to dissipate a little bit, and frankly, I'm pleased that the number of expectations of rate cuts for 2025 has actually been cut a little bit in the futures market at least that, that really gives it makes it more sustainable over time. And with that, we think we can maybe see a reduction in the disparity between mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury, for example, is from what it's been historically.

因此，如果這種觀點稍微消散一點，坦率地說，我很高興期貨市場上對 2025 年降息的預期實際上有所下降，至少是這樣，這確實讓我們感到高興。持續。有了這個，我們認為也許可以看到抵押貸款利率和十年期國債之間的差距比歷史上的差距有所縮小。

Timur Braziler, Wells Fargo.

帖木兒·巴西爾，富國銀行。

Hi, good morning. I wanted to just get some clarity on the expectation for 4Q to be the NII trough. Is the expectation that 1Q maybe you get some additional margin compression from the asset-sensitive balance sheet and then volume makes it up? Or should 4Q be the trough for NIM compression as well?

嗨，早安。我只是想澄清一下第四季度將成為國家資訊基礎設施低谷的預期。是否預期第一季您可能會從資產敏感的資產負債表中獲得一些額外的利潤壓縮，然後數量彌補？或者說 4Q 也應該是 NIM 壓縮的低谷嗎？

Yeah. I believe 4Q can be the trough as well on the NIM side. Yes.

是的。我相信第四季也可能是NIM方面的低谷。是的。

Yeah. Okay. And then just to maybe to put a finer point on Bernie's question. So for the earnings at risk analysis, I guess, what are you assuming for mortgage rates and kind of mortgage revenues within that earnings at risk analysis?

是的。好的。然後也許是為了更好地解釋伯尼的問題。因此，對於風險收益分析，我想，您對風險收益分析中的抵押貸款利率和抵押收入類型有何假設？

Yeah. So that we would tail into maybe something that ticks into a 5 by the end of next year. The 5 handle, high 5.

是的。這樣我們可能會在明年年底前達到 5 分的水平。5把柄，高5。

Great. And then just last thing for me (multiple speakers) Sure

偉大的。然後是我的最後一件事（多位發言者）當然

Sorry, I just wanted to add a point to Dale's comments when talking about NIM. He was really -- he was referencing the adjusted NIM. Okay. And so that when you think about it, that's the way I think about it is that adjusted NIM is just net interest income less the deposit costs. That is all going to flow upward or move upward throughout the year. Okay. I just want to make that a little clarification. Sorry, I didn't mean that drop.

抱歉，我只是想在 Dale 談論 NIM 時的評論中添加一點。他確實──他指的是調整後的淨利差。好的。因此，當你思考這個問題時，我的想法是，調整後的淨利差只是淨利息收入減去存款成本。這一切都將在全年中向上流動或向上移動。好的。我只想澄清一下。抱歉，我不是說那個掉落。

No, I appreciate that clarification. And then just lastly for me, just thinking about HQLA deposits in a rate-down environment I'm assuming just the short-term nature, there is going to be a little bit punitive to NII. Just how are you thinking about HQLA levels growing, maybe commensurate with the asset base or asset growth and then what that might look like from a rate perspective?

不，我很欣賞這項澄清。最後對我來說，考慮一下利率下調環境下的 HQLA 存款，我假設只是短期性質，NII 將會受到一點懲罰。您如何看待 HQLA 水準的成長，也許與資產基礎或資產成長相稱，然後從利率角度來看會是什麼樣子？

Yes. So we think we're kind of attacked in terms of where we are on what we have in HQLA presently. That number kind of came down a little bit because we've disposed of some of these deposits that were collateralized all with HQLA categories. So from here, again, it gives us latitude to grow our loans commensurate with the growth rate we're going to show in deposits.

是的。因此，我們認為就目前 HQLA 的情況而言，我們受到了攻擊。這個數字略有下降，因為我們已經處置了部分以 HQLA 類別作為抵押的存款。因此，從這裡開始，它再次為我們提供了增加貸款的自由度，以與我們將在存款中顯示的成長率相稱。

And so as Ken mentioned, so if we're going to grow deposits $2 billion on average. And that means that includes like the fourth quarter decline that's already built into higher growth earlier in those quarters. And then if you can grow at 75%, 80%, you're going to have $6 billion of deposit growth in that loan growth to match that. And then the rest of it is going to fall into other categories like HQLA.

正如肯所提到的，如果我們要平均增加存款 20 億美元。這意味著這包括第四季度的下滑，而這些下滑已經在這些季度的早些時候形成了更高的成長。然後，如果你能以 75%、80% 的速度成長，那麼貸款成長中將有 60 億美元的存款成長來與之相符。然後其餘的將屬於其他類別，例如 HQLA。

Anthony Elian, JPMorgan.

安東尼·埃利安，摩根大通。

Hi, everyone. Does your 4Q deposit guide of down $2 billion include any additional paydowns of broker deposits? Or is the decline really coming from the seasonality of warehouse?

大家好。您的第四季存款指南減少了 20 億美元，是否包括任何額外的經紀人存款支付？或者說下降真的是來自倉庫的季節性嗎？

It's really seasonality of warehouse. We expect our broker deposits to be fairly flat.

這確實是倉庫的季節性。我們預計我們的經紀商存款將相當穩定。

Got it. Okay. And then my follow-up also on deposits. I understand the warehouse is going to seasonally outflow in 4Q. But I guess are there not enough deposit opportunities from other areas of the company to be able to offset that seasonal headwind for this quarter specifically? Thank you.

知道了。好的。然後我的後續行動也涉及存款。據我了解，第四季倉庫將出現季節性流出。但我想公司其他領域是否沒有足夠的存款機會來抵銷本季的季節性逆風？謝謝。

So the other areas -- other deposit channels do, in fact, to gate some of that outflow that you're seeing, but the Warehouse Lending Group has a larger -- is a larger contributor to deposit growth. And so -- and the other thing that's happening, as I can't -- I should emphasize this, is that in the warehouse lending group or the industry, we've had several competitors either leave the industry or retreat from it in a significant way.

因此，其他領域——事實上，其他存款管道確實可以控制你所看到的一些資金外流，但倉庫貸款集團的規模更大——對存款成長的貢獻更大。因此，另一件事正在發生，但我不能，我應該強調這一點，在倉庫借貸集團或行業中，我們已經有幾個競爭對手要么離開該行業，要么以某種方式退出該行業。方式。

And we are just seeing more inflow than we would normally have expected. And that inflow came in, in Q3 and will kind of reverse out in Q4. So that's why it's harder to have the other deposit channels cover that larger inflow for us in Q4. But after these deposits go on a hiatus as we call them, they do come back into Q1, come back starting in Q1 and will help us with our liquidity as we roll forward. throughout 2025.

我們看到的資金流入量超出了我們通常的預期。這種資金流入是在第三季進入的，並將在第四季出現逆轉。因此，這就是為什麼其他存款管道很難在第四季度為我們提供更大的資金流入。但在這些存款出現我們所謂的中斷之後，它們確實會回到第一季度，從第一季開始回來，並將在我們前進的過程中幫助我們增加流動性。整個 2025 年。

Gary Tenner, D.A. Davidson.

坦納，D.A.戴維森。

Thanks. Good morning. I appreciate the firm thoughts on the combined NII and ECR costs. I just wonder if you're willing to put a finer time on just the GAAP NII outlook. Obviously, the fourth quarter is a lower guide. Based on your rate forecast for next year, kind of the 25 basis points per quarter, how deep into the year would you think it would be until you could turn dollars of GAAP NII from a bottom?

謝謝。早安.我很欣賞對 NII 和 ECR 綜合成本的堅定想法。我只是想知道您是否願意花更多的時間來關注 GAAP NII 的前景。顯然，第四季的指引較低。根據您對明年的利率預測，即每季 25 個基點，您認為今年要多久才能將 GAAP NII 美元從谷底扭轉過來？

At this point, I think we've given more clarity around 2025 and what we expect. And any other conference call that I've read about so far. And we're going to leave it here as we get -- as we announce our Q4 earnings, we'll get into more detail what that 2025 full year is going to look like. But I think we've given plenty of guidance here on how to kind of construct what to expect in 2025.

至此，我認為我們已經更加明確了 2025 年左右的情況以及我們的期望。以及迄今為止我讀到的任何其他電話會議。當我們宣布第四季度收益時，我們將把它留在這裡，我們將更詳細地了解 2025 年全年的情況。但我認為我們已經就如何建構 2025 年的預期提供了大量指引。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Samuel Varga, UBS.

塞繆爾·瓦爾加，瑞銀集團。

Good morning. Dale, I just wanted to touch on the CRA again. I wanted to get your sense for, let's say, if Fed funds normalize around the 3% that a lot of people are pegging, what would be the floor on ECR rates? I understand that the beta at least initially is expected to be near 100%. But how -- at what point does it just level off and that move lower?

早安.Dale，我只想再談談 CRA。我想聽聽您的感受，假設，如果聯邦基金利率正常化到許多人所預期的 3% 左右，那麼 ECR 利率的下限是多少？據我所知，beta 至少在最初預計會接近 100%。但如何－在什麼時候它會趨於平穩並走低？

Well, I mean if you look to kind of where we were before, when rates were even lower than that during the pandemic, our ECR is mostly bottomed at around 40 basis points. So there's still a lot of room to continue to push things down. And frankly, I mean, it's all about what's the alternative for money in the. So it's like, okay, so they have these funds. Is some other financial institution going to be paying more than what a 3% number in your example, I think it will be paying 350, 360? I doubt it because that generally means that funds are available elsewhere.

嗯，我的意思是，如果你看看我們之前的情況，當時的利率甚至低於大流行期間的水平，我們的 ECR 大多觸底於 40 個基點左右。所以還有很大的空間可以繼續壓下去。坦白說，我的意思是，這一切都與金錢的替代方案有關。所以就像，好吧，所以他們有這些資金。在你的例子中，其他一些金融機構是否會支付超過 3% 的數字，我認為它會支付 350、360？我對此表示懷疑，因為這通常意味著資金可以在其他地方獲得。

So we have these diversified funding sources so that we've got all these channels so that we can meet kind of the credit demand that we have. So I don't see that there is a number there that we're going to -- it's going to really get sticky in terms of pushing things lower as they were much lower before. And their alternatives for -- and not just for but they're alternatives for us if we can go to other sectors as well and look for funds. So I mean, they're not going to move that far away from what the market rate for money is in terms of how low it can go.

因此，我們擁有這些多元化的資金來源，因此我們擁有所有這些管道，以便我們能夠滿足我們的信貸需求。因此，我認為我們不會有一個數字——在壓低價格方面，它會變得很棘手，因為它們之前的價格要低得多。他們的替代方案不僅是，而且如果我們也可以去其他產業尋找資金，那麼它們就是我們的替代方案。所以我的意思是，就貨幣市場利率可以低到什麼程度而言，他們不會偏離那麼遠。

Got it. And then just my follow-up on the earnings at risk. Can you give us a sense -- obviously, it's hard for us to know exactly what you're assuming on mortgage. But can you give us a sense for what helps more in offsetting the NII compression? Is it the CRs or the mortgage benefit from AmeriHome on the fee income side?

知道了。然後是我對風險收益的後續。您能給我們一個感覺嗎？但您能否讓我們了解什麼更有助於抵銷 NII 壓縮？費用收入方面是 CR 還是 AmeriHome 的抵押貸款福利？

What offsets the mortgage income on the fee income side. Well, I mean, so I mean they have funds that come from kind of their origination of mortgage servicing, right? So they manufacture these. And depending on what that estimated value is kind of determines what the gain on sale is and then we have the servicing rights that we value and amortized down.

費用收入方面抵消了抵押貸款收入。嗯，我的意思是，他們的資金來自抵押貸款服務，對吧？所以他們製造這些。根據估計價值的多少，決定了銷售收益是多少，然後我們就擁有了我們重視並攤提的服務權。

So that's why I look at them more in concert rather than kind of a singular element. I think it was more important in the third quarter where they were they were more, I'll say, bifurcated in terms of the response. And that was really related to the 50% increase we had in constant prepayment rates that took place in August that we -- that was in excess of, I think, what most models would have captured.

所以這就是為什麼我更多地將它們視為一致的而不是單一的元素。我認為第三季更為重要，我想說的是，他們在反應上更加分歧。這確實與 8 月我們的固定預付款率增加了 50% 有關，我認為這超出了大多數模型所能捕捉到的水平。

Chris McGratty, KBW.

克里斯·麥克格拉蒂，KBW。

Great. Thanks. Great. Dale or Ken, longer-term question about ROE potential in a down rate environment. How are you thinking about ROE over the next couple of years?

偉大的。謝謝。偉大的。Dale 或 Ken，關於利率下調環境下股本回報率潛力的長期問題。您如何看待未來幾年的 ROE？

Yes. So I don't -- we don't think that our ROE potential is really that dependent upon the rate environment. That is we're based on the balance sheet that we have, the capital that we need, the spreads that we can obtain that we can continue to efficiently manage the organization. We know our costs have come up for the past couple of years or so.

是的。所以我不認為我們的股本報酬率潛力真的那麼依賴利率環境。也就是說，我們基於我們擁有的資產負債表、我們需要的資本、我們可以獲得的利差，以便我們能夠繼續有效地管理組織。我們知道過去幾年左右我們的成本有所上升。

But we believe we're going to get back to an efficiency ratio that begins with the four instead of on an adjusted basis, i.e., with the deposit costs netted against interest income. And so that should leave us with a ROCE in the upper teens. And we believe we're on our way to get there and that's where -- and frankly, that's kind of where we're headed. We're not going to get back to the 20s that we were at before because our leverage is lower with our higher CET1 ratio.

但我們相信，我們將回到從四開始的效率比率，而不是在調整的基礎上，即存款成本扣除利息收入。因此，我們的 ROCE 應該在十幾歲左右。我們相信我們正在實現這一目標，坦白說，這就是我們前進的方向。我們不會回到之前的 20 多歲，因為我們的槓桿率隨著 CET1 比率的提高而降低。

Understood. Thanks a lot, Dale.

明白了。非常感謝，戴爾。

Jon Arfstrom, RBC.

喬恩‧阿夫斯特羅姆，加拿大皇家銀行。

Thanks. Good morning. Ebrahim set me up, I guess. But Ken, I hear you on your 2025 thoughts. Are you more optimistic on with the recent rate cuts and the current rate outlook? Is this good for the company generally?

謝謝。早安.我猜是易卜拉欣陷害了我。但是 Ken，我聽到了您對 2025 年的想法。您對最近的降息和當前的利率前景更加樂觀嗎？這對公司整體有好處嗎？

Yeah. Yes, I am I'm -- my optimism comes first from the balance sheet, right? We've given that guide of $1 billion for loans and $2 billion on average for the boss, right? And we've been giving that guide for -- boy, for seems like a couple of years now that we continue to do that. And I think we have these credit origination platforms that work well. And over the years, we've added the deposit platforms. And so my confidence is in -- I feel very strongly about the guide that we can achieve the balance sheet.

是的。是的，我是──我的樂觀首先來自於資產負債表，對吧？我們給的指引是 10 億美元的貸款和平均 20 億美元的老闆，對吧？我們一直在為——天哪，似乎已經有幾年了，我們將繼續這樣做。我認為我們擁有這些運作良好的信貸發放平台。多年來，我們增加了存款平台。因此，我的信心在於──我對我們能夠實現資產負債表的指導感到非常強烈。

The overall liability sensitive nature of the bank, I think in a falling rate environment, as Dale talked about, and we're talking about this on an adjusted net interest income basis, exclusive of deposit costs. With rate cuts coming at us, we see that getting better. And so that gives me some confidence as well. Asset quality, as we see it today, is stable, knock on wood. And so yes, I have -- I always believe next year is always going to be more difficult than the previous year, but I always tend to have a higher level of confidence that we can get there.

我認為，正如戴爾所說，在利率下降的環境下，銀行的整體負債敏感性，我們是在調整後的淨利息收入的基礎上討論這一點的，不包括存款成本。隨著降息的到來，我們看到情況正在好轉。這也給了我一些信心。正如我們今天所看到的，資產品質非常穩定。所以，是的，我一直相信明年總是會比前一年更加困難，但我總是對我們能夠實現這一目標抱有更高的信心。

Yeah. Okay. You guys, you used the word transitional a lot and I understand that. It feels like this was kind of an unusual quarter for you, and I hear you on transitional, but do you have like a non-GAAP core EPS number in your mind for the quarter? I mean, I think you've got MSR, BOLI, I don't know, gains, lower gain on sale, ECR pressure. There's a lot going on. I guess it would be helpful if you have some kind of a shot at like a repeatable, sustainable quarterly EPS run rate in your mind just because there was a lot, I think, a lot going on here?

是的。好的。你們經常使用過渡這個詞，我理解這一點。感覺這對你來說是一個不尋常的季度，我聽說你在過渡，但你心裡有這個季度的非 GAAP 核心每股收益數字嗎？我的意思是，我認為你有 MSR、BOLI，我不知道，收益、銷售收益較低、ECR 壓力。有很多事情發生。我想，如果你在腦海中嘗試制定可重複的、可持續的季度每股收益運行率，這會很有幫助，因為我認為這裡發生了很多事情？

Yes, I think that's a fair question. We've kind of get to $1.80, which is what was reported. The decline from the mortgage business was was offset by gains from the collateralized deposits that the securities that help collateralized deposits and those two things kind of equal out for us. And as we don't think we're going to see that MSR valuation decline in Q4. And as Bill said that, you know, we have other collateralized deposits and settlements that are rolling off where we have gains in in Q4 that I think it was Chris, who asked the question that we think captured in the run rate.

是的，我認為這是一個公平的問題。我們已經達到了 1.80 美元，這就是報道的內容。抵押貸款業務的下滑被抵押存款的收益所抵消，而抵押存款的證券對我們來說是相當的。我們認為第四季 MSR 估值不會下降。正如比爾所說，你知道，我們還有其他抵押存款和結算，這些存款和結算正在滾動，我們在第四季度取得了收益，我認為是克里斯提出了我們認為在運行率中捕獲的問題。

Brandon King, Truist.

布蘭登金，真理主義者。

Hey. Just one for me on core expenses. Stripping out ECR deposit costs, it looks like the growth run rate was around 5% in the quarter. And taking your commentary on deposit costs, next quarter seems like I noticed a higher of 4%. So that 5% to 4% quarterly run rate of growth, is that something we should expect over the foreseeable future? Or anything temporary within that core expense run rate over the next few quarters?

嘿。只是我的一項核心開支。剔除 ECR 存款成本，該季度的成長率約為 5%。考慮到您對存款成本的評論，我注意到下個季度的存款成本將增加 4%。那麼，在可預見的未來，我們應該預期 5% 到 4% 的季度成長率嗎？或者未來幾季核心費用運行率中有什麼臨時的變化？

So the way I'd come at it is I think about it as the adjusted efficiency ratio as we come out of Q4 through 2025. which excludes deposit fees. And we think over the course of the year that, that will get at or near 50% by the end of 2025. So we see the adjusted efficiency ratio declining through 2025.

因此，我的想法是，我將其視為從第四季度到 2025 年的調整後效率比率，其中不包括存款費用。我們認為，到 2025 年底，這一比例將達到或接近 50%。因此，我們認為調整後的效率比率到 2025 年都會下降。

Okay. And within that, any sort of commentary on as far as the infrastructure build as you continue to grow towards in a CAT 4?

好的。其中，對於您繼續向 CAT 4 發展的基礎設施建設有何評論？

No, that's embedded in there. That's embedded in there.

不，那是嵌入在那裡的。那是嵌入在那裡的。

Those are all the questions we have. And so I'll turn the call back to Ken Vecchione for any closing remarks.

這些就是我們所有的問題。因此，我會將電話轉回 Ken Vecchione，讓其發表結束語。

Thank you all for attending the call. We look forward to talking to you in January about our Q4 results. So thanks again.

感謝大家參加電話會議。我們期待在一月份與您討論我們第四季的業績。所以再次感謝。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. This concludes our call, and you may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們的通話到此結束，您現在可以斷開線路了。