Frontier Group Holdings Inc (ULCC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the 2024 third quarter Frontier Group Holdings earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Frontier Group Holdings 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the call over to your first speaker today, David Erdman, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將電話交給今天的第一位發言者、投資者關係高級總監 David Erdman。請繼續。

Yes. Thank you and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

是的。謝謝大家，早安。歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

On the call with me this morning are Barry Biffle, Chief Executive Officer; Jimmy Dempsey, President; Mark Mitchell, Chief Financial Officer; and Bobby Schroeter, Chief Commercial Officer. Each will deliver brief prepared remarks. But before they do, I'll recite the customary Safe Harbor provisions.

今天早上與我通話的是執行長 Barry Biffle；吉米·登普西，總裁；馬克‧米切爾，財務長；和首席商務官 Bobby Schroeter。每個人都將發表簡短的準備好的演講。但在他們這樣做之前，我將背誦慣例的安全港條款。

During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those predicted in these forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning risk factors which could cause such differences are outlined in the announcement we released earlier, along with reports we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在本次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性。實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。我們先前發布的公告以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的報告中概述了有關可能導致此類差異的風險因素的更多資​​訊。

We will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures. Actual results of which are reconciled to the nearest comparable GAAP measure in the appendix of the earnings announcement.

我們也將討論非公認會計準則財務指標。實際結果與收益公告附錄中最接近的可比較公認會計原則指標進行了調整。

So I'll give the floor to Barry to begin his prepared remarks. Barry?

因此，我將請巴里開始他準備好的發言。巴里？

Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. Our revenue and network initiatives helped to overcome headwinds from excess domestic capacity. And we saw green shoots midway through the quarter as we optimized our capacity, and other carriers made needed cuts of their own.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。我們的收入和網路計劃有助於克服國內產能過剩帶來的不利因素。隨著我們優化運力，我們在本季度中期看到了復甦的跡象，而其他運營商也根據需要進行了削減。

Domestic capacity growth has now slowed to its lowest rate post pandemic. And in fact, for the first time in 10 years, it's trailing gross domestic product, excluding COVID years.

國內產能成長現已放緩至疫情後的最低水準。事實上，十年來首次，它落後於國內生產毛額（不包括新冠疫情年份）。

September RASM inflected higher by approximately 5% excluding Helene impact. And while lower capacity was a factor, we're seeing continued progress with our sales platform, The New Frontier, and loyalty program enhancements. Bobby will expand on these items in just a moment.

排除 Helene 的影響，9 月 RASM 上漲約 5%。雖然容量較低是一個因素，但我們看到我們的銷售平台、新前沿和忠誠度計劃增強不斷取得進展。鮑比稍後將詳細介紹這些項目。

Our third-quarter adjusted pre-tax margin loss of 1.1% was at the midpoint of our guidance despite a challenging conclusion to the quarter as hurricane Helene struck the southeast United States. Excluding the impact from the hurricane and the Microsoft-CrowdStrike outage, our operation delivered year-over-year improvements across nearly every operational metric.

儘管颶風海倫襲擊美國東南部，該季度的結局充滿挑戰，但我們第三季調整後的稅前利潤率損失為 1.1%，處於我們指引的中點。排除颶風和 Microsoft-CrowdStrike 中斷的影響，我們的營運幾乎所有營運指標都實現了同比改進。

This is a strong validation of our network simplification strategy which also contributed to our 4% reduction in adjusted CASM, ex-fuel, on a stage-adjusted basis during the quarter. Improvements in our operation (technical difficulty) helping to drive the lowest complaint rate we've had in three years.

這是對我們網路簡化策略的有力驗證，該策略也有助於我們在本季度按階段調整的基礎上將調整後的 CASM（不包括燃料）減少 4%。我們營運的改進（技術難度）幫助我們將投訴率降到了三年來的最低水準。

We expect the RASM inflection to strengthen in the fourth quarter, including the headwinds from hurricane Milton, supported by the maturity of our network and revenue initiatives and moderating capacity growth. In addition, the schedule overlap with our closest two competitors is expected to significantly lower in the fourth quarter and into 2025 across nearly all Frontier crew bases.

我們預計 RASM 拐點將在第四季度加強，包括米爾頓颶風的不利影響，這得益於我們的網路和收入計劃的成熟以及容量增長的放緩。此外，從第四季度到 2025 年，幾乎所有 Frontier 機組人員基地與我們最接近的兩個競爭對手的時間表重疊預計將顯著減少。

Milton forced the cancellation of nearly 20% of our scheduled flights over a four-day period and caused demand softness for travel-impacted areas on top of the lingering effects from Helene. I'd like to extend our thoughts to those affected by recent hurricanes, including many of our own employees who endured the brunt of them. As well, I'm grateful to the valued team member of Frontier for safely navigating these challenges and working diligently to quickly and safely recover the operation.

米爾頓在四天內迫使我們取消了近 20% 的定期航班，除了海倫的持續影響之外，還導致受旅行影響的地區的需求疲軟。我想向那些受到最近颶風影響的人們表示慰問，包括我們自己的許多遭受颶風影響的員工。此外，我還感謝 Frontier 的重要團隊成員安全地應對這些挑戰，並努力工作以快速、安全地恢復營運。

I now turn the call over to Jimmy for a commercial overview. Jimmy?

我現在將電話轉給吉米，了解商業概況。吉米？

Thanks, Barry, and good morning, everyone. Briefly recapping the quarter, total operating revenue increased 6% versus the prior year to $935 million on capacity growth of 4%, our slowest quarterly post-pandemic rate, resulting in RASM of $0.0928.

謝謝巴里，大家早安。簡單回顧一下本季度，總營業收入比上年增長 6%，達到 9.35 億美元，運力增長 4%，這是我們疫情後最慢的季度增長率，RASM 為 0.0928 美元。

Departures increased 17% on a 14% shorter average stage. Total revenue capacity was $106, down 8% versus the '23 quarter, largely driven by oversupplied domestic seats prior to broad industry capacity reductions which began to take effect midway through the quarter.

平均航程縮短 14%，出發航班量增加 17%。總收入運力為 106 美元，比 2023 年季度下降 8%，這主要是由於在本季度中期開始生效的廣泛行業運力削減之前國內座位供應過剩所致。

As Barry mentioned, we saw a year-over-year inflection and stage length adjusted RASM as we progressed through August and September as a direct result of our own capacity adjustments and the constructive capacity adjustments across the industry. We removed 37% of all peak flying, shaping the week on the higher demand days whilst adding new routes which increased our revenue pool by 17%.

正如 Barry 所提到的，隨著 8 月和 9 月的進展，我們看到了同比拐點和階段長度調整的 RASM，這是我們自己的產能調整和整個行業的建設性產能調整的直接結果。我們取消了 37% 的高峰航班，在需求較高的日子安排了一周，同時增加了新航線，使我們的收入池增加了 17%。

This strategy is proving to be a successful adjustment to our deployed capacity. Whereby in addition to leisure traffic flows, we enhance our attractiveness to vehicle and small business traffic. Seat capacity in the fourth quarter will continue to grow, with deployed seats increasing by 6.5%, albeit on a shorter stage of 875 miles, resulting in ASM production reducing by 2% to 3% year over year.

事實證明，這項策略是對我們部署能力的成功調整。除了休閒交通流量外，我們還增強了對車輛和小型企業交通的吸引力。第四季的座位運力將繼續增長，部署座位數將增加 6.5%，儘管階段較短，為 875 英里，導致 ASM 產量年減 2% 至 3%。

We opened three new stations during the third quarter, Bridgetown, Barbados; Port of Spain, Trinidad; and San Jose, California, and launched 17 new markets. We continue to expand our network in the fourth quarter, including the addition of 33 new markets launched from Palm Springs, Vail/Eagle, Burlington, Vermont, and Washington Dulles.

我們在第三季開設了三個新車站：巴貝多布里奇敦；西班牙港，特立尼達；和加州聖荷西，並推出了 17 個新市場。我們在第四季度繼續擴大我們的網絡，包括從棕櫚泉、韋爾/伊格爾、伯靈頓、佛蒙特州和華盛頓杜勒斯機場新增 33 個新市場。

Although the hurricane Helene and Milton dented our end-of-Q3 and early-Q4 performance, we have seen a strong bounce back in bookings that is now in line with the trajectory we were experiencing in late August and September.

儘管颶風海倫和米爾頓削弱了我們第三季末和第四季初的表現，但我們看到預訂量出現強勁反彈，這與我們在 8 月底和 9 月經歷的軌跡一致。

Off-peak traffic flows remain challenging, and it is our expectation that we continue to moderate flying on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, Saturdays, and red eye flying throughout 2025 with a focus on improving our RASM performance as a significant network shift from overcapacity, underperforming markets at the end of 2023 and early 2024 results in maturing redeployed capacity across our 13-base footprint.

非高峰交通流量仍然具有挑戰性，我們預計整個2025 年我們將繼續減少週二、週三、週六的飛行和紅眼飛行，重點是提高RASM 性能，因為這是網路從運力過剩、表現不佳的市場中發生的重大轉變到 2023 年底和 2024 年初，我們 13 個基地的重新部署能力將趨於成熟。

We expect capacity growth in 2025 to be in the mid single digits on an average stage length of approximately 900 miles. Our simplified out and back network enters into its second year of operation as we progress through Q2 2025 with our new 2024 bases of Cleveland, Cincinnati, Tampa, Chicago, San Juan, Puerto Rico maturing from a commercial and operational perspective.

我們預計 2025 年運力成長將達到中等個位數，平均賽段長度約為 900 英里。隨著我們在2025 年第二季的進展，我們的簡化往返網路進入營運的第二年，我們的克利夫蘭、辛辛那提、坦帕、芝加哥、聖胡安、波多黎各的新基地從商業和營運角度來看將在2024 年日趨成熟。

Throughout 2024, we've been working diligently to improve our merchandizing to the customer and launch The New Frontier together with some enhancements to our day of travel experience with our customers. I'll hand it over to Bobby to go through some of these together with an update on our performance in our newly launched premium products and enhanced loyalty program.

在整個 2024 年，我們一直在努力改善我們對客戶的推銷，並推出了 The New Frontier，同時增強了我們與客戶的一天旅行體驗。我將把它交給鮑比來完成其中的一些內容，以及我們在新推出的優質產品和增強的忠誠度計劃方面的最新表現。

Thanks, Jimmy, and good morning, everyone. Our customer experience and revenue initiatives are showing significant momentum, and I'm excited to highlight some of the key advancements we've made recently.

謝謝吉米，大家早安。我們的客戶體驗和收入計劃顯示出強勁的勢頭，我很高興強調我們最近的一些關鍵進展。

We continue to prioritize improving the customer experience through technology. This quarter, we introduced self-service international travel document verification in the Frontier mobile app, allowing travelers to easily verify their documents before arriving at the airport. Over 80% of our customers now use the app on the day of travel for fast and easy check in, bag drop, and boarding, which has greatly enhanced the overall airport experience.

我們繼續優先考慮透過科技改善客戶體驗。本季度，我們在 Frontier 行動應用程式中推出了自助國際旅行證件驗證服務，讓旅客可以在抵達機場之前輕鬆驗證其證件。現在，我們超過 80% 的客戶在旅行當天使用該應用程式快速輕鬆地辦理登機手續、托運行李和登機，這極大地提升了機場的整體體驗。

To that end, we will be delivering a new mobile app toward the end of this year, which will provide a significantly better customer experience from today. Additionally, on the airport front, we opened new ground loading gates in Denver, expanding our capacity at our home base and improving efficiency during peak travel periods.

為此，我們將在今年年底推出一款新的行動應用程序，從今天起它將提供明顯更好的客戶體驗。此外，在機場方面，我們在丹佛開設了新的地面裝貨門，擴大了我們總部的運力，並提高了旅行高峰期的效率。

Turning to revenue, the new Frontier bundles of economy, premium, and business have been a significant driver of growth since their launch. Due to the success on flyfrontier.com, we added these bundles to the mobile app in mid September, allowing customers to choose their preferred bundle not only at the time of booking, but also before travel and at check in.

談到收入，新的 Frontier 經濟、溢價和業務捆綁包自推出以來一直是成長的重要推動力。由於在 Flyfrontier.com 上取得的成功，我們於 9 月中旬將這些套餐添加到行動應用程式中，讓客戶不僅可以在預訂時，而且可以在旅行前和辦理登機手續時選擇自己喜歡的套餐。

This multi-stage offering has increased attachment rates for bundles, and we're on track to extend this functionality to MDC-enabled third party platforms early next year. The simplicity and transparency of bundle pricing has resonated well with customers who appreciate the clear options and the ability to easily understand the total cost of their trip.

這種多階段產品提高了捆綁包的附件率，我們預計在明年初將此功能擴展到支援 MDC 的第三方平台。捆綁定價的簡單性和透明度引起了客戶的強烈共鳴，他們欣賞清晰的選擇以及輕鬆了解旅行總成本的能力。

This success positions us well to continue attracting new customers and to retain existing ones. Our premium products, UpFront Plus and BizFare, have also continued to perform very well. Paid load factor for UpFront Plus, which is still in its maturity phase, is approaching 70%, generating 30% more ancillary revenue per passenger compared to the previous stretch seating.

這一成功使我們能夠繼續吸引新客戶並留住現有客戶。我們的優質產品 UpFront Plus 和 BizFare 也持續表現出色。UpFront Plus 的付費載客率仍處於成熟階段，接近 70%，與先前的加長座椅相比，每位乘客的輔助收入增加了 30%。

Similarly, BizFare has also been a strong performer with the utilization rate over 250 basis points higher in the third quarter compared to the second and a revenue premium nearly 50% higher than basic fares. As we expand BizFare into search engines like Google Flights and Kayak in Q4 and further into corporate booking tools next year, we expect these products to continue driving incremental revenue.

同樣，BizFare 也表現強勁，第三季的利用率比第二季高出 250 個基點，營收溢價比基本票價高出近 50%。隨著我們在第四季度將 BizFare 擴展到 Google Flights 和 Kayak 等搜尋引擎，並在明年進一步擴展到企業預訂工具，我們預計這些產品將繼續推動收入增量。

Our co-branded credit card partnership is yielding strong results as well. The introduction of two free checked bags in August and instant Elite Gold status in May for cardholders has helped to drive co-brand revenue up 15% year over year for the third quarter, with applications up 39% and spending increasing by 9%, the highest on record.

我們的聯名信用卡合作也取得了良好的成果。8 月推出的兩件免費托運行李以及 5 月份為持卡人提供即時精英金卡身份的推出，幫助推動第三季度聯合品牌收入同比增長 15%，申請量增長 39%，支出增長 9%。記錄以來最高。

These enhancements have made our card more competitive and appealing particularly for customers in key markets and crew bases. And we believe there's a large untapped revenue opportunity for us that we will be pursuing even more heavily in the future.

這些增強功能使我們的卡更具競爭力和吸引力，特別是對於主要市場和船員基地的客戶。我們相信，我們有大量未開發的收入機會，我們將在未來更加努力地追求。

That concludes my remarks. And I'll turn it over to Mark for the financial update.

我的發言到此結束。我會將其轉交給馬克以獲取最新財務資訊。

Thanks, Bobby, and good morning, everyone. Briefly recapping the quarter, total revenue was $935 million, 6% higher than the 2023 quarter. Fuel expense was $261 million, 10% lower than the 2023 quarter, at an average cost of $2.67 per gallon. The decrease in fuel expense was driven by 13% lower fuel prices, partially offset by 4% higher consumption resulting from higher flown ASMs of a similar rate.

謝謝，鮑比，大家早安。簡單回顧一下本季度，總營收為 9.35 億美元，比 2023 年季度成長 6%。燃料費用為 2.61 億美元，比 2023 年季度下降 10%，平均成本為每加侖 2.67 美元。燃油費用下降的原因是燃油價格下降了 13%，但部分被相同速率的 ASM 飛行量增加導致的 4% 的消耗量增加所抵消。

Adjusted non-fuel operating expenses were $693 million, within guidance, excluding most of the benefit from the $40 million legal settlement reached in September related to litigation brought against the former aircraft lessor. Approximately $2 million of this settlement is related to legal fees we incurred and thus were not adjusted for our non-GAAP earnings presentation. Proceeds from this settlement were received in early October.

調整後的非燃油營運支出為 6.93 億美元，處於指導範圍內，不包括 9 月達成的 4,000 萬美元法律和解協議的大部分收益，該和解協議與針對前飛機租賃商提起的訴訟有關。此次和解中約 200 萬美元與我們產生的法律費用有關，因此未根據我們的非 GAAP 收益報告進行調整。此次和解的收益已於 10 月初收到。

Adjusted CASM ex-fuel was $0.0689 or $6.37 on a stage adjusted basis, 4% lower than the 2023 quarter driven by our cost savings program which has delivered greater than $100 million of annual run rate savings since inception in the third quarter last year and the cost benefit from two additional aircraft sale leaseback transactions in the quarter. Partially offsetting these items were higher costs tied to an increase in departures related to our decision to reduce average stage and higher costs due to fleet growth and the lower capacity on off-peak days to better align with demand trends.

調整後的CASM 不含燃料費用為0.0689 美元，按階段調整後為6.37 美元，比2023 年季度低4%，這得益於我們的成本節約計劃，該計劃自去年第三季度啟動以來已實現了超過1 億美元的年度運行率節省，本季度另外兩筆飛機售後回租交易帶來了成本效益。部分抵消這些項目的是與我們減少平均階段的決定相關的出發次數增加相關的更高成本，以及由於機隊增長和非高峰日運力降低而導致的更高成本，以更好地適應需求趨勢。

Third-quarter pre-tax income was $27 million, while adjusted pre-tax loss was $10 million, yielding a 1.1% loss margin, the difference primarily related to the non-recurring legal settlement I just mentioned. Net income was $26 million, while adjusted net loss was $11 million. Our adjusted net loss is greater than our adjusted pre-tax loss due largely to the impact of non-deductible tax items and the resulting impact to our quarter-to-date tax rate, particularly as our year-to-date adjusted pre-tax loss is close to breakeven.

第三季稅前收入為2,700萬美元，調整後稅前虧損為1,000萬美元，虧損幅度為1.1%，差異主要與我剛才提到的非經常性法律和解有關。淨利潤為 2,600 萬美元，調整後淨虧損為 1,100 萬美元。我們的調整後淨虧損大於調整後稅前虧損，主要是由於不可抵扣稅項的影響以及由此對我們季度至今稅率的影響，特別是我們年初至今調整後的稅前虧損已接近盈虧平衡。

We ended the quarter with $781 million of total liquidity comprised of unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of $576 million and $205 million of availability under our new revolving line of credit that closed in September and was undrawn at quarter end. As previously disclosed, our new revolver is secured by our loyalty and brand-related assets.

截至本季末，我們的流動性總額為7.81 億美元，其中包括5.76 億美元的不受限制的現金和現金等價物，以及9 月份結束並在季度末未提取的新循環信貸額度下可用的2.05 億美元。如同先前所揭露的，我們的新左輪手槍由我們的忠誠度和品牌相關資產所保障。

It features expansion capabilities which, subject to certain terms, conditions, and additional lending commitments, may be increased to $500 million. We're also able to enter into additional indebtedness secured by our loyalty and brand-related assets which may provide for significant incremental liquidity as desired to the extent such indebtedness is pari-passu to that of the revolving credit facility.

它具有擴展能力，根據某些條款、條件和額外貸款承諾，擴展能力可能會增加到 5 億美元。我們也能夠承擔由我們的忠誠度和品牌相關資產擔保的額外債務，這些資產可以根據需要提供大量增量流動性，只要此類債務與循環信貸便利的債務同等。

As part of establishing a new revolver, we also updated our existing PDP financing facility and secured two additional PDP facilities in September which, in the aggregate, expands our PDP financing capacity by $113 million and covers aircraft deliveries through 2027 and certain deliveries scheduled in 2028.

作為建立新左輪手槍的一部分，我們還更新了現有的PDP 融資設施，並於9 月獲得了另外兩項PDP 設施，這總共使我們的PDP 融資能力擴大了1.13 億美元，涵蓋了2027 年之前的飛機交付以及計劃於2028 年交付的某些飛機。

We had 153 aircraft in our fleet at quarter end after taking delivery of five A321 Neo aircraft during the quarter, all financed with sale lease back transactions. We expect to take delivery of two spare aircraft engines and six A321 Neo (technical difficulty) fourth quarter, all of which are planned to be financed with sale lease back transactions, and exit the year with 159 aircraft.

在本季接收了五架 A321 Neo 飛機後，截至季度末，我們的機隊共有 153 架飛機，所有飛機均透過售後回租交易融資。我們預計第四季將接收兩台備用飛機引擎和六架 A321 Neo（技術難度），所有這些都計劃透過售後回租交易進行融資，並以 159 架飛機結束今年。

Our fleet plan for 2025 remains consistent with the amended delivery schedule we disclosed last quarter, with the pace of deliveries in 2025 weighted towards the back half of the year. We expect to take delivery of 21 sale lease back financed aircraft next year, eight in the first half, all of which are A321 Neos; and 13 in the second half, of which five are A321 Neos and eight or A320 Neos, with the second half deliveries heavily weighted towards the fourth quarter.

我們 2025 年的機隊計劃與我們上季度披露的修改後的交付時間表保持一致，2025 年的交付速度偏向下半年。我們預計明年將接收 21 架售後回租飛機，其中上半年為 8 架，全部為 A321 Neo；下半年交貨量為 13 架，其中 5 架為 A321 Neo，8 架為 A320 Neo，下半年的交付量主要集中在第四季。

The aircraft leasing market today is strong. And we've secured sale leaseback financing commitments for expected deliveries through 2025 along with approximately one-third of 2026 expected deliveries.

如今的飛機租賃市場表現強勁。我們已經獲得了 2025 年預期交付量以及 2026 年預期交付量的約三分之一的售後回租融資承諾。

Our fourth-quarter guidance was published in the earnings announcement we issued this morning. Recapping key highlights. Fourth-quarter non-fuel operating expenses are expected to be $725 million to $745 million, including an estimate of approximately $10 million related to cost inefficiencies from hurricane related impacts and temporary excess crew related costs tied to capacity reductions.

我們的第四季指引已在我們今天早上發布的收益公告中發布。回顧主要亮點。第四季度非燃料營運支出預計為 7.25 億至 7.45 億美元，其中包括與颶風相關影響造成的成本效率低下以及與運力減少相關的臨時超員相關成本相關的約 1,000 萬美元的估計。

Also bear in mind, the prior year quarter included a $36 million lease return benefit as we extended leases on four aircrafts. On a full-year basis, we expect stage-adjusted CASM, ex-fuel, for 2024 to be down approximately 1% versus the prior year at the low end of prior guidance despite the significant reduction in off-peak day-of-week capacity in the last four months of the year that wasn't initially contemplated in our guide.

另請記住，由於我們延長了四架飛機的租賃期限，上一季包括 3,600 萬美元的租賃回報收益。就全年而言，我們預計 2024 年階段調整後的 CASM（不包括燃料）將比上一年下降約 1%，處於先前指導的低端，儘管非高峰時段大幅減少我們的指南最初並未考慮到今年最後四個月的容量。

The average fuel price per gallon for the fourth quarter is expected to be in the range of $2.40 to $2.50 based on the fuel curve as of October 24. Adjusted pre-tax margin is expected to be in the range of breakeven to 2%, which includes an estimated 2-percentage-point impact related to weather, resulting in an expected full-year adjusted pre-tax margin of breakeven to just modestly above.

根據截至 10 月 24 日的燃油曲線，第四季度每加侖平均燃油價格預計在 2.40 美元至 2.50 美元之間。調整後的稅前利潤率預計將在盈虧平衡至 2% 的範圍內，其中包括與天氣相關的估計 2 個百分點的影響，預計全年調整後的稅前利潤率將略高於盈虧平衡。

With that, I'll turn the call back to Barry for closing remarks.

之後，我將把電話轉回給巴里，讓他作結束語。

Thanks, Mark. I'm proud of the progress team Frontier has made in executing our revenue and cost initiatives while also improving our operational performance and customer experience. We expect the continued progress and maturation of these initiatives in the fourth quarter and into 2025 to drive further inflection on RASM on a stage-adjusted basis, which combined with our significant cost advantage, is expected to support our objective of getting back to double digit margins by the summer of 2025.

謝謝，馬克。我對 Frontier 團隊在執行收入和成本計劃方面取得的進展感到自豪，同時也提高了我們的營運績效和客戶體驗。我們預計這些舉措將在第四季度直至2025 年持續取得進展和成熟，將在階段調整的基礎上進一步推動RASM 的發展，再加上我們顯著的成本優勢，預計將支持我們恢復兩位數的目標到 2025 年夏季，利潤率將達到。

Thanks again for joining us this morning. Before we begin Q&A, I want to flag that we will not be commenting on any potential M&A in our industry. Operator, we're ready to begin the Q&A.

再次感謝您今天早上加入我們。在我們開始問答之前，我想強調的是，我們不會對我們行業中任何潛在的併購發表評論。接線員，我們準備開始問答。

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

謝謝。這時，我們將進行問答環節。（操作員指令）Ravi Shanker，摩根士丹利。

Great, thanks. Morning, everyone. So maybe to kick off just on the ASM guidance for next year. What do you think that RASM trajectory looks like for '25, given -- like you think can now grow only mid single digits. Given some of the new initiatives, do you think that that there can be a little bit of a revenue offset there?

太好了，謝謝。早安，大家。因此，也許可以從明年的 ASM 指南開始。你認為 25 年 RASM 的軌跡是什麼樣的，因為你認為現在只能成長中個位數。考慮到一些新舉措，您認為可能會抵銷一點收入嗎？

Yeah. So look, we look at the path to back to double digit margins as being driven at this point by the revenue initiatives, whether it's the network maturing, the maturing of The New Frontier and all the premium products that we've got, the continued maturation of the loyalty programs we've got. Plus, the industry backdrop, just in general, I think is very accretive to this.

是的。所以看，我們認為回到兩位數利潤率的道路是由收入計劃推動的，無論是網絡的成熟、新前沿的成熟以及我們擁有的所有優質產品，持續的我們的忠誠度計劃已經成熟。另外，我認為總體而言，行業背景對此非常有幫助。

So I think you can pretty much draw on the line from here. And you can see why we're really bullish about getting back there, especially if you consider fourth quarter. If we wouldn't have had hurricane Milton, we'd have made several points in margin this quarter.

所以我認為你幾乎可以從這裡畫出這條線。您會明白為什麼我們非常看好回到那裡，特別是如果您考慮到第四季度。如果沒有米爾頓颶風，我們本季的利潤率就會提高幾個點。

Got it. Just to follow up just to that point. I think your guidance of getting to double digit margin at summer of '25, I think the Street is below half that number, right? So what's the Street not getting? Is it just the potential for converting that RASM or -- where do you think we need to close the GAAP versus expectations?

知道了。只是為了跟進這一點。我認為你的指導是在 25 年夏天達到兩位數的利潤率，我認為華爾街還不到這個數字的一半，對嗎？那麼華爾街沒有得到什麼？只是轉換 RASM 的潛力還是——您認為我們需要在哪些方面關閉 GAAP 與預期？

Well, I think the biggest bucket is probably just the maturation of all the new network initiatives that we did this year. I mean, you got to go back and look that we grew our revenue pool by over a third over year. And now, you're looking at growth sub 10 10%. So much bigger revenue pool.

嗯，我認為最大的收穫可能是我們今年所做的所有新網路計畫的成熟。我的意思是，你必須回頭看看我們的收入池比去年增長了三分之一以上。現在，您看到的成長速度低於 10% 10%。更大的收入池。

But yeah, that flying was very immature. So when you lap, year over year, 20% to 30% increase in maturation multiplied times 20% of your capacity, this is one of the simplest things I think for the Street to get. That's in the 4% to 5% range of RASM.

但是，是的，那種飛行非常不成熟。因此，當你年復一年地跑一圈時，成熟度增加 20% 到 30% 乘以你的能力的 20%，這是我認為華爾街能得到的最簡單的事情之一。這在 RASM 的 4% 到 5% 範圍內。

Then you've got -- we've got the beginnings of The New Frontier. I mean, we're just now getting the 70% paid load factor with UpFront Plus, and we're seeing real attraction in our premium products. We're seeing real success in The New Frontier and that merchandizing. That's where -- that's mature, that's worth a couple of bucks.

然後你就得到了——我們已經有了新前沿的開始。我的意思是，我們剛剛透過 UpFront Plus 獲得了 70% 的付費負載率，並且我們看到了我們的優質產品的真正吸引力。我們在「新前沿」和商品行銷中看到了真正的成功。這就是──成熟的地方，值幾塊錢的地方。

And then we have a new app coming not as well in DC, which, we've seen across the industry, has been very creative as well. So we've just got a lot of things in the tank and I think probably more than anyone on a tailwind perspective for RASM.

然後我們在華盛頓推出了一款新應用程序，但我們在整個行業中都看到，它也非常有創意。因此，我們已經儲備了很多東西，我認為可能比任何人都更傾向於 RASM。

And that's before you get to the overall industry backdrop of capacity, which I think -- what we're seeing now is people are cutting, and they're going to continue cutting until they hit their target margin. So I think that's probably the best backdrop that we've had, I think, in probably in 7 to 10 years.

那是在你了解整個產業產能背景之前，我認為我們現在看到的是人們正在削減，他們將繼續削減，直到達到目標利潤率。所以我認為這可能是我們 7 到 10 年來最好的背景。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

布蘭登·奧格倫斯基，巴克萊銀行。

Hi. This is John Dorsett on for Brandon. Thank you for taking my question. With a capacity of mid single digits next year, how are you able to control costs? And then could you also just talk a little bit about your rent line? With all the sale leasebacks expected to come, how should this affect the rent over the next year?

你好。我是布蘭登的約翰·多塞特。感謝您回答我的問題。明年的產能將達到中個位數，您如何控製成本？然後你能談談你的租金線嗎？隨著所有售後回租的到來，這將如何影響明年的租金？

Yeah, sure. Go ahead.

是的，當然。前進。

Yeah, yeah. So I mean, specific to next year -- as I mentioned, we were expecting 21 deliveries next year, with eight of those, 320 Neos; and the balance, 321 Neos. And so we have those sale leasebacks financed.

是啊是啊。所以我的意思是，具體到明年 - 正如我所提到的，我們預計明年將交付 21 架，其中 8 架，320 架 Neo；其餘為 321 Neos。因此，我們為這些售後回租提供了資金。

And so similar to what we've highlighted before, you would expect a similar amount of gains tied to that. And then as we turn the page to 2025, we're on target as we stand now to achieve the $150 million annual run rate benefit from our cost savings program by the end of this year.

與我們之前強調的類似，您會期望與此相關的類似收益。然後，當我們翻過這一頁到 2025 年時，我們的目標是到今年年底從我們的成本節約計畫中實現 1.5 億美元的年運行率效益。

And then as we look to next year with the moderated capacity those capacity adjustments or investments that, from a commercial perspective are expected to help drive incremental RASM in a better overall margin outcome. So I think that's the overview.

然後，當我們展望明年的產能調整或投資時，從商業角度來看，這些產能調整或投資預計將有助於推動增量 RASM，從而獲得更好的整體利潤率結果。我認為這就是概述。

I just think I would add, too. I think if you look at the latest costs, even including the fact that we reduced capacity, I mean, we're becoming the premier ULCC. In order to do that, you got to have the lowest cost in space.

我只是想我也會補充。我認為，如果你看看最新的成本，甚至包括我們減少產能的事實，我的意思是，我們正在成為首屈一指的 ULCC。為了做到這一點，你必須擁有最低的空間成本。

It's in our DNA. We're managing everything about it, everything that Mark just mentioned on the simplification of the network and so forth. But what we've seen is the cost convergence is true across most of the industry, but not in the case of Frontier.

它存在於我們的 DNA 中。我們正在管理有關它的一切，馬克剛才提到的有關網路簡化的一切等等。但我們所看到的是，大多數行業都存在成本趨同的情況，但 Frontier 的情況並非如此。

And I think that's misunderstood and not really highlighted. We are over 40% in Q3. And it looks like based on the guidance that we're seeing, we continue to maintain that over 40% cost advantage even as we roll into '25.

我認為這被誤解了並且沒有得到真正的強調。第三季我們的佔比超過 40%。看起來，根據我們所看到的指導，即使進入 25 年，我們仍將繼續保持超過 40% 的成本優勢。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Savi Syth, Raymond James.

薩維·賽斯，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

Hey. Good morning. Just to follow up on that last question. So for unit cost pressure next year, could you help us think through that? Are you seeing mid single digits again next year or should it be better? Or at least help us think about like the moving parts on a year-over-year basis?

嘿。早安.只是為了跟進最後一個問題。那麼對於明年的單位成本壓力，您能幫我們思考一下嗎？您明年會再次看到中個位數，還是應該會更好？或至少幫助我們思考逐年變化的部分？

Yeah. Savi, at this point -- yeah, we're not guiding next year. I mean, what we're focused on right now is getting to that $150 million annual run rate target as part of our cost savings program. But we're still working through the guide for next year. So we're not guiding at this point.

是的。薩維，在這一點上——是的，我們不會為明年提供指導。我的意思是，我們現在關注的重點是實現 1.5 億美元的年運行率目標，作為我們成本節約計畫的一部分。但我們仍在製定明年的指南。所以我們目前不提供指導。

Got it. And maybe -- Barry, you've alluded to this. But I wonder if you could give it a little bit more color on -- you did do a lot of capacity that you put in other markets into a lot of markets that are maturing. Could you talk about like what the ASMS on maturity were as you progressed through this year and what that looks like next year?

知道了。也許——巴里，你已經提過這一點。但我想知道你是否可以給它更多的色彩——你確實在其他市場上投入了大量的產能，並投入許多正在成熟的市場中。您能否談談今年的 ASMS 成熟度以及明年的情況？

Yeah, sure. It's a great question. So look, we did a significant redeployment from last year, mainly out of Florida, a little bit of Las Vegas. And we moved that across several of our new bases. I think in large part, we saw hitting normal historical averages, call it two-thirds of those routes worked.

是的，當然。這是一個很好的問題。所以看，我們從去年開始進行了重大的重新部署，主要是在佛羅裡達州，還有一點拉斯維加斯。我們將其轉移到了幾個新基地。我認為在很大程度上，我們看到了正常的歷史平均水平，稱之為有效路線的三分之二。

I think the only disappointing, really, area was actually New Orleans. We just didn't see, universally, anything work out of New Orleans. We think there's some local issues there. But by and large, we're seeing really good early results. And we expect that maturity curve to come through and you're going to hit the historical averages.

我認為唯一令人失望的地區實際上是新奧爾良。我們只是沒有普遍看到新奧爾良有任何進展。我們認為那裡存在一些本地問題。但總的來說，我們看到了非常好的早期結果。我們預計成熟度曲線將會通過，並且您將達到歷史平均值。

So that's why I mentioned, I think, on the first question what's most misunderstood. I don't think people are understanding that 20% of our capacity was outsized redeployment, and you're going to have a 20% to 30% bump on maturity as we wrap into 2025. So I don't think there's anyone out there that's got the tailwinds that we have on the revenue side.

我認為這就是為什麼我在第一個問題上提到了最容易被誤解的是什麼。我認為人們沒有理解我們 20% 的產能是大規模重新部署，而且當我們進入 2025 年時，成熟度將會增加 20% 到 30%。因此，我認為沒有人能像我們一樣在收入上獲得優勢。

So starting '25, do you get back to your normal mixing of new versus mature markets?

那麼從 25 年開始，您會恢復新市場與成熟市場的正常混合嗎？

Yeah, I think it's going to come down. You're still going to have a little bit of new. We've got a few lingering -- I'd say couple of opportunities that we're really interested. But yeah, I think you're going to -- by spring, summer, you'll get back to a normal mix of new markets as largely part of our growth. And I think you'll -- yeah. I think sometime by July, you probably have your growth rate tied to the new markets.

是的，我認為它會下降。你仍然會有一些新的東西。我們有一些揮之不去的機會——我想說有幾個我們真正感興趣的機會。但是，是的，我認為到了春季、夏季，你將恢復新市場的正常組合，這在很大程度上是我們成長的一部分。我想你會——是的。我認為到七月的某個時候，你的成長率可能會與新市場掛鉤。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Michael Lindenberg, Deutsche Bank.

麥可林登伯格，德意志銀行。

Hi there. This is Shannon Doherty on for Mike. Thanks for taking my question. So can you provide us with more detail on the drivers of this year's $150 million cost savings program?

你好呀。我是香農·多爾蒂（Shannon Doherty）為麥克發言。感謝您提出我的問題。那麼您能否向我們提供有關今年 1.5 億美元成本節約計劃驅動因素的更多詳細資訊？

Yeah. So from a, yeah, cost savings program standpoint, the high level (technical difficulty) by the network simplification that we've talked about, getting to over 80% out and back, the crew footprint -- crew-based footprint that we put in place. In addition, really across the business, aggressive cost management from a headcount per aircraft standpoint and various other metrics, as well as a number of automation initiatives across the business that collectively are getting us to that $150 million annual run rate target.

是的。因此，是的，從成本節約計劃的角度來看，我們討論過的網路簡化的高水平（技術難度），進出率超過 80%，以及我們放置的基於船員的足跡就位。此外，在整個業務中，從每架飛機的人數和各種其他指標的角度來看，積極的成本管理，以及整個業務中的許多自動化舉措，共同幫助我們實現了1.5 億美元的年運行率目標。

Got it. Thanks. And Barry, on the revenue side, you have a lot of, basically, revenue initiatives going on. And I know we've talked about them extensively, but which one are you most bullish on? Or said differently, what initiative is going to be the largest contributor to hitting your 10% to 14% pre-tax margin guide?

知道了。謝謝。巴里，在收入方面，基本上有很多收入計劃正在進行中。我知道我們已經廣泛討論過它們，但您最看好哪一個？或者換句話說，什麼措施將成為實現 10% 至 14% 稅前利潤率指引目標的最大貢獻者？

Well, I think the largest contributor is the network maturity, if it took a single bucket. And it's just math, right? It's going to happen. I think the one we're probably the most excited about is actually what we've been doing from a premium perspective and from a loyalty perspective.

好吧，我認為最大的貢獻者是網路成熟度（如果只用一個桶子的話）。這只是數學，對吧？這將會發生。我認為我們最興奮的可能實際上是我們從溢價和忠誠度角度所做的事情。

We're seeing huge uptake in our credit card as an example. We're in a situation with relatively low growth right now in the fall, but yet we're seeing the highest credit card applications in our history, right? So -- and they're jumped massively year over year because of all the initiatives that we've done this year.

以我們的信用卡為例，我們看到了巨大的使用率。我們目前處於秋季增長相對較低的情況，但我們卻看到了歷史上最高的信用卡申請量，對嗎？因此，由於我們今年採取的所有舉措，它們逐年大幅躍升。

So I think if you flow that out, the maturity over the next several years is massive in the loyalty. I mean, if you take the loyalty revenue that the industry gets compared to us, we are several dollars a passenger below where we should be. And I think you don't get there through little small steps. You get there through some big changes. But it takes a while for that to mature.

所以我認為，如果你把它說出來，未來幾年的忠誠度會變得巨大。我的意思是，如果你將行業獲得的忠誠度收入與我們進行比較，我們的每位乘客比我們應有的水平低了幾美元。我認為你不可能通過一小步一小步到達那裡。你要經歷一些重大的改變才能到達那裡。但它需要一段時間才能成熟。

So we think we've made a lot of those changes. We've got more to come. But I think the one area that we're most excited about is probably loyalty. Because again, if you look at the industry, this is something they get up in the teens and $20-plus per passenger. We're in a couple of bucks a passenger. So this is a huge opportunity.

所以我們認為我們已經做出了很多改變。我們還有更多的事情要做。但我認為我們最興奮的一個領域可能是忠誠。因為，如果你看看這個行業，你會發現他們在十幾歲的時候就開始這麼做了，每位乘客的收費超過 20 美元。我們一個乘客幾塊錢。所以這是一個巨大的機會。

Andrew Didora, Bank of America.

安德魯·迪多拉，美國銀行。

Hey. Good morning, everyone. Barry, just to clarify, on the double-digit margins by summer of next year, is that a comment just on margins over the summer? Or is that a true run rate figure that we can build off of going forward?

嘿。大家早安。巴里，我想澄清一下，到明年夏天，利潤率將達到兩位數，這是否只是針對整個夏天的利潤率？或者說這是我們未來可以建立的真實運行率數據？

No, run rate.

不，運行率。

Got it. And just in terms of some of the credit facility moves that you made over the quarter, why was now the right time to raise additional liquidity? Was there something in the credit markets or your business trends that made you think differently about it at this point in time? Thank you.

知道了。就您在本季採取的一些信貸安排措施而言，為什麼現在是籌集額外流動性的最佳時機？信貸市場或您的業務趨勢是否有某些因素讓您此時對此有不同的看法？謝謝。

Yeah, I mean I think overall, we have a very attractive base of loyalty assets and we're always going to look at ways to optimize our balance sheet. And for us, establishing a revolver with that as the collateral gave us a very cost-efficient way to increase our liquidity.

是的，我的意思是，我認為總體而言，我們擁有非常有吸引力的忠誠度資產基礎，我們總是會尋找優化資產負債表的方法。對我們來說，建立左輪手槍作為抵押品為我們提供了一種非常經濟高效的方式來增加我們的流動性。

And so it just made a lot of sense. And then from a PDP financing perspective, just given the growth in our fleet looking forward, it was the right opportunity to expand that facility. Had significant interest and so had a successful outcome with that as well as we highlighted in the prepared remarks.

所以這很有意義。然後從 PDP 融資的角度來看，考慮到我們機隊的未來成長，這是擴大該設施的最佳機會。我們對此非常感興趣，因此取得了成功的成果，正如我們在準備好的發言中所強調的那樣。

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

Yeah.

是的。

Scott Group, Wolfe.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. So Barry, any color on how to think about first half '25 capacity? And then I know you don't want to talk about Spirit and I'm sure you love hypothetical questions, but just hypothetically, if you have a deal with someone and you're waiting on approval for that deal, how does that change your mid-single digit standalone capacity? Do you think it's more likely to be higher or lower than that if you have a deal with someone?

嘿，謝謝。早安.那麼巴里，您對如何看待 25 年上半年的產能有什麼看法嗎？然後我知道你不想談論精神，我相信你喜歡假設性問題，但只是假設，如果你與某人達成協議並且你正在等待該交易的批准，這會如何改變你的想法？容量？你認為如果你和某人有交易的話，這個數字更有可能更高還是更低？

Nice try, Scott. We're not commenting on M&A. But look, yeah, we're targeting mid-single digits for capacity growth and we're not actually putting it out by quarter. But that's the plan for the year. I'll let you ask another question since I'm not going to answer it.

不錯的嘗試，斯科特。我們不對併購發表評論。但是，是的，我們的目標是實現中個位數的產能成長，但我們實際上並沒有按季度發布。但這是今年的計劃。我會讓你問另一個問題，因為我不會回答它。

But to give you a little bit of color, Scott, we obviously adjusted the network as you progress through the second half of this year. That has to lap into next year. And so the first half of the year will obviously have slower growth. Stage normalizes around 900 miles or so, plus or minus, as you progress through next year.

但史考特，為了給你一點色彩，隨著你今年下半年的進展，我們顯然調整了網路。這必須延續到明年。所以上半年的成長顯然會放緩。隨著您明年的進步，階段正常化約 900 英里左右，加減。

So you're going to see some ASM growth come into the business in the back half of next year, but lower actual seat growth in the business. But that's how the year will shape next year as you see the effect of taking down Tuesdays, Wednesday capacity predominantly flow through the first six months of next year.

因此，您將看到明年下半年 ASM 業務出現一些成長，但該業務的實際席位增長較低。但這就是明年的情況，因為你會看到週二、週三運力減少的影響主要流向明年的前六個月。

Okay. And then when we look at your cost guidance for Q4, I think it's something order of magnitude $0.075 of CASM ex, right? What -- I guess there's some hurricane in there. But like, what is not sustainable there? Like what goes to -- what goes lower from there? Or does CASM mix grow from that level?

好的。然後，當我們查看第四季度的成本指引時，我認為 CASM ex 的成本約為 0.075 美元，對嗎？什麼——我猜那裡有颶風。但是，那裡有什麼是不可持續的呢？例如，從那裡開始，什麼會變得更低？或者 CASM 組合是否會從該水準成長？

Right. I mean, so when you step back, right, and you look at the year-over-year -- I mean, first of all, you got to keep in mind, right, last year had a $36 million benefit from some lease extensions we did. And then as you look at the number for this year, first of all, you've got fleet growth is up 17% because of lower stage.

正確的。我的意思是，所以當你退後一步，對吧，你看看同比情況時——我的意思是，首先，你必須記住，對吧，去年從一些租約延期中獲得了3600 萬美元的收益我們做到了。然後，當你查看今年的數字時，首先，由於階段較低，機隊成長了 17%。

You've got departure growth that's up as well. And so those items, combined with just some of the maintenance tied to a larger fleet, right, is what -- along with just some of the station mix that we're in and some rates tied to that drive the year-over-year increase.

出發人數也有所增加。因此，這些項目，再加上與更大車隊相關的一些維護，對吧，再加上我們所在的一些車站組合以及與此相關的一些費率，推動了逐年增長增加。

And so when you look from an overall year perspective, I mean, we have been consistent from the beginning of the year that our stage adjusted CASM ex was going to be down. And it was, or it still is what we're projecting to be down 1% for the full year. And as Barry mentioned earlier as well, I mean, our cost advantage remains over 40% on a per passenger basis versus the rest of the industry.

因此，當你從全年的整體角度來看時，我的意思是，我們從年初開始就一直認為我們的階段調整後的 CASM ex 將會下降。我們預計全年將下降 1%，過去或現在仍然如此。正如巴里之前提到的，我的意思是，與業內其他公司相比，我們的每位乘客成本優勢仍然超過 40%。

Yeah. I think optically, Scott, you need to look at the stage. So if you look at it stage adjusted, you won't see this big amount.

是的。我認為從視覺上來說，斯科特，你需要看看舞台。所以如果你看一下階段調整後的情況，你不會看到這麼大的金額。

No, I get the year-over-year increase. I'm just trying to figure out the absolute CASM, $0.075. Is that the right run rate to be thinking about going forward?

不，我得到的是同比增長。我只是想算出絕對 CASM，0.075 美元。這是未來考慮的正確運行速度嗎？

That's -- you're not stage adjusting it, Scott.

那是——你沒有進行舞台調整，史考特。

Yeah. I mean, I think on a stage-adjusted basis, right, for the fourth quarter, I mean, you're closer to $0.07. And within that number, there are items in there that are tied to the lower capacity on off-peak days and the other items I mentioned, but still get you to the full year down 1%.

是的。我的意思是，我認為在第四季度的階段調整基礎上，我的意思是，你更接近 0.07 美元。在這個數字中，有些項目與非高峰時段運力下降以及我提到的其他項目有關，但仍然使全年下降 1%。

Okay. All right. Thank you.

好的。好的。謝謝。

Jamie Baker, JPMorgan Securities.

傑米貝克，摩根大通證券。

Hey. Good morning, everybody. So let me try a couple of questions, admittedly inspired by my competitors earlier on the call. On 2025 ex-fuel CASM, it feels like sale leaseback gains could turn from a tailwind this year to a headwind next year.

嘿。大家早安。因此，讓我嘗試幾個問題，誠然，這些問題是受到我的競爭對手早些時候電話會議的啟發。就 2025 年不含燃料的 CASM 而言，售後回租收益可能會從今年的順風轉為明年的逆風。

I know you don't want to give a full year, fully loaded CASM guide thanks to Savi for asking, but have you worked up just what this sale leaseback strategy could contribute next year? And is it indeed a headwind year on year?

我知道您不想提供一整年、內容豐富的 CASM 指南，感謝 Savi 的詢問，但是您是否已經研究過這種售後回租策略明年可以做出哪些貢獻？這真的是逐年逆風嗎？

Yeah. I mean, just isolating on the sale leaseback gains given the mix and the number of aircraft, certainly, that would drive lower sale leaseback gains. But I mean, as you look at next year, I mean, we believe we've got more than enough tailwinds to mitigate that.

是的。我的意思是，考慮到飛機的組合和數量，只考慮售後回租收益，當然會降低售後回租收益。但我的意思是，當你展望明年時，我的意思是，我們相信我們有足夠的順風來緩解這種情況。

And you're going to have next year, the full year benefit, the network simplification. And there's a number of other items, right, that we're looking to continue to aggressively manage our costs.

明年你將獲得全年的好處，即網路簡化。我們也希望繼續積極管理其他許多項目的成本。

Okay. And then Barry, this is not asking you to comment on future M&A. My question is wholly backward looking. So let me try that strategy.

好的。然後巴里，這並不是要求您對未來的併購發表評論。我的問題完全是向後看的。那麼讓我試試看這個策略。

It's been, I don't know, 36, 37 months. So what percentage of the original, the original, Spirit Frontier rationale might still apply given everything that's happened at the industry level? So just looking in the rearview mirror, not asking you to comment looking forward.

已經，我不知道，36、37 個月了。那麼，考慮到產業層面發生的一切，原始的、原始的、精神前沿的基本原理有多大比例可能仍然適用？所以只是看看後視鏡，而不是要求你展望未來發表評論。

Jamie, you know I love you, but I can't comment on that. Look, we're really excited about being the premier ULCC. I think we have proven that that we have the lowest cost. We've proven that we can expand our cost advantage.

傑米，你知道我愛你，但我無法對此發表評論。看，我們對成為首屈一指的 ULCC 感到非常興奮。我認為我們已經證明我們的成本是最低的。我們已經證明我們可以擴大我們的成本優勢。

We have probably, I think, deployed on the revenue side and executed better for network, for all these initiatives, loyalty, premiumization, so forth. And we're going to buck the excess capacity. And I think that everything's coming together. So we're excited about our future right now, and we'll see what happens.

我認為，我們可能已經在收入方面進行了部署，並在網路、所有這些舉措、忠誠度、高端化等方面執行得更好。我們將克服產能過剩問題。我認為一切都會齊頭並進。所以我們現在對我們的未來感到興奮，我們將看看會發生什麼。

Could I squeeze another one in, just --

我可以再擠一個進去嗎--

I'll let you have one as long as it's not the same variety.

只要不是同一品種我就給你一個。

Okay. Notwithstanding the comments you've made already on the call -- I don't want you to just repeat yourself. But if I compare the fourth quarter guide to the second quarter outcome, your margins were, let's call it, flattish in the second quarter. You're guiding to something in that ballpark for the fourth quarter.

好的。儘管您已經在電話中發表了評論，但我不希望您重複自己的話。但如果我將第四季的指引與第二季的結果進行比較，我們可以這麼說，第二季的利潤率持平。你正在指導第四季度的一些事情。

And I totally understand seasonality in the airline business, but domestic capacity is so much tighter today. Fuel is $0.40 lower. I mean, what headwinds would you identify to help explain why your margin guide isn't better than the second quarter? Or is it just completely seasonality?

我完全理解航空業務的季節性，但如今國內運力非常緊張。燃油價格低 0.40 美元。我的意思是，您會發現哪些不利因素來幫助解釋為什麼您的利潤指南不如第二季？還是這完全是季節性的？

Well, your seasonality, but -- I mean, don't underestimate the Florida impact. We don't know how good it would have been. We just know that our sales kept climbing, climbing, climbing, and then we had two back-to-back hurricanes. And having a base in Tampa was not very helpful, but -- and this year was great.

好吧，你的季節性，但是——我的意思是，不要低估佛羅裡達州的影響。我們不知道它會有多好。我們只知道我們的銷售額不斷攀升、攀升、攀升，然後我們經歷了兩次背對背的颶風。在坦帕建立基地並沒有多大幫助，但是——今年很棒。

It's great on the cost that Mark wants to brag about. It's not good on the revenue side when you have hurricanes, and two of them hit that area, plus its impact on Central Florida as well with Orlando base. But look, I think we are disappointed that that we didn't get to that single-digits, but I think we would have gotten much closer had we not had it.

馬克想要吹噓的成本非常高。當颶風發生時，收入方面並不好，其中兩次颶風襲擊了該地區，再加上對佛羅裡達州中部以及奧蘭多基地的影響。但是看，我認為我們對沒有達到這個個位數感到失望，但我認為如果我們沒有達到這個數字，我們會更接近。

The other issue is just the maturity of we've got a lot of brand new markets right now. And so we're trying to take in a pretty healthy drag from that. And I think there's one other factor that will definitely normalize as we move into the next season.

另一個問題是我們現在有許多全新市場的成熟度。因此，我們正試圖從中吸取相當健康的拖累。我認為當我們進入下個賽季時，還有一個因素肯定會正常化。

But there were a lot of cheap seats, Jamie, this summer. I mean, if you wanted to go in July, it has never been that cheap. I mean, not only were the fares low, you had September fares in July. So anybody that wanted to travel during the peak time was able to.

但傑米，今年夏天有很多便宜的座位。我的意思是，如果你想在七月去，它從來沒有這麼便宜過。我的意思是，不僅票價低，而且 7 月還有 9 月的票價。所以任何想在高峰時段旅行的人都可以。

And so that bomb went off in the -- and on the capacity world, and we're still kind of reeling from that. I think now as we move to the winter season, we're optimistic that this is going to change. I mean, for the first time, we're going to have capacity growth actually lower than GDP in a long time.

因此，這顆炸彈在容量世界中爆炸了，而我們仍然對此感到震驚。我認為現在隨著冬季的到來，我們樂觀地認為這種情況將會改變。我的意思是，在很長一段時間內，我們的產能成長將首次低於 GDP。

And so I think we don't need to underestimate, not to bring up how long you've been around, but you know what that's going to do for industry reps.

因此，我認為我們不需要低估，也不需要提及您已經存在了多久，但您知道這會對行業代表產生什麼影響。

All right. Speaking to the bald spot -- thank you, Barry. I appreciate it.

好的。說到禿頭——謝謝你，巴里。我很感激。

Stephen Trent, Citi.

史蒂芬‧特倫特，花旗銀行。

Thank you very much, gentlemen. I appreciate you taking the time. Most of my questions have been answered. But if I could ask one about your expectations around future growth -- so when you think about your passenger flow, for example, any high level view on how much of that's going to come from your guys' organic growth versus attrition from other carriers versus your alliance with Mexico's Volaris? Thanks.

非常感謝你們，先生們。我很感謝您抽出時間。我的大部分問題都得到了解答。但是，如果我可以問一下您對未來成長的期望 - 例如，當您考慮您的客流時，任何高層觀點都會認為其中有多少將來自您們的有機增長與其他航空公司的流失你們與墨西哥的Volaris 結盟嗎？謝謝。

That's great questions. Look, I think I can start it and Bobby can talk about some network. But I think at the end of the day, we're going to focus on organic growth. But to the extent that someone with higher costs or someone leaves a market and it makes an opportunity, I think folks know we're probably the most nimble in the business. And we will probably jump on that opportunity faster than anybody.

這是很好的問題。聽著，我想我可以開始了，鮑比可以談談一些網路。但我認為最終我們將專注於有機成長。但就成本較高的人或離開市場並創造機會的人而言，我認為人們知道我們可能是行業中最靈活的。我們可能會比任何人更快地抓住這個機會。

Yeah. And I think -- I mean, that speaks to the history here. Look, we did -- we modified the network and we're nimble in what we did there. You've heard this word quite a bit during this conversation, but it's real, which is the maturation of this.

是的。我認為——我的意思是，這說明了這裡的歷史。看，我們做到了——我們修改了網絡，我們在那裡所做的事情非常靈活。在這次談話中你已經聽過這個詞很多次了，但它是真實的，這就是它的成熟。

So as we go through this, some of it is things that we set up months ago. And we'll continue into next year, and we'll build and be able to get natural growth there in terms of the maturation of the network itself.

因此，當我們經歷這個過程時，其中一些是我們幾個月前設定的。我們將繼續到明年，隨著網路本身的成熟，我們將在那裡建立並能夠獲得自然增長。

And then, of course, we talk about the premiumization and a variety of other things. These are things that -- we have the lowest cost, and we're providing a product at a lower cost than anybody else to provide us that our customers have wanted but haven't had necessarily access to. So that's still in this maturation phase as well and helps us as we're trying to both grow our customer base and retain who we've got. So lots of opportunity there as we move into the future.

當然，我們也會討論高端化和其他各種問題。這些都是——我們的成本最低，我們以比其他任何人都低的成本提供產品，為我們提供客戶想要但不一定能夠獲得的產品。因此，這仍然處於成熟階段，並有助於我們努力擴大客戶群並留住現有客戶。當我們邁向未來時，那裡有很多機會。

Okay, I appreciate the time. Thank you.

好的，我很珍惜時間。謝謝。

Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

杜安‧芬尼格沃斯 (Duane Pfennigwerth)，Evercore ISI。

Hey, thanks. Can you talk a little bit about the recent schedule changes to the month of December specifically? Was that aircraft deliveries getting pushed or that you had to react to? Or was that something else?

嘿，謝謝。您能具體談談最近 12 月的行程安排變更嗎？飛機交付量是否被推遲或您必須做出反應？還是別的什麼？

Yeah. Look, Duane, we've been adjusting our network over the last number of months, obviously, to manage Tuesday, Wednesday, Saturday flying that we've been taking down. And the recent change is just to the first half of the month, adjusting for some movement in aircraft deliveries. And so it's nothing really significant to that other than us finalizing our network as we get closer to the month.

是的。看，杜安，過去幾個月我們一直在調整我們的網絡，顯然是為了管理我們已經取消的周二、週三、週六的航班。而最近的變化只是到了上半月，針對飛機交付量的一些變化進行了調整。因此，除了我們在接近這個月時最終確定我們的網絡之外，沒有什麼真正重要的事情。

Got it, got it. And then just for my follow-up, contractually -- not saying you're interested in doing this, but would your contracts allow you to sell future delivery positions in your book? Not saying sale leasebacks, but outright sale for future delivery.

明白了，明白了。然後，就我的後續行動而言，從合約角度來看——並不是說您有興趣這樣做，而是您的合約是否允許您出售書中未來的交割頭寸？不是說售後回租，而是直接出售以供未來交付。

Understand your plan sounds like it's baked for 2025 on the sale leaseback front. But if you're going to grow 5%, let's say if that's the plan in 2026, which I assume it's not -- but if it were, do you need to take 21 aircraft to hit that 5% or could you actually monetize some of the value in your book through outright sale?

了解您的計劃聽起來像是在售後回租方面為 2025 年制定的。但如果你要成長 5%，假設這就是 2026 年的計劃，我認為這不是——但如果是的話，你是否需要使用 21 架飛機才能達到 5%，或者你實際上可以將一些貨幣化嗎？透過直接出售你的書的價值？

So we can't get into commercial terms of confidential deals. But I think right now, we've spent a lot of time recently on our fleet and we're very comfortable with profile and feel very good about the delivery schedule as it exists. I know a lot of it -- Airbus deferred a bunch of it, and it got, I guess, kind of lumpy.

所以我們不能進入保密交易的商業條款。但我認為現在，我們最近在我們的車隊上花了很多時間，我們對概況非常滿意，並對現有的交貨時間表感到非常滿意。我知道很多——空中巴士公司推遲了很多，我想，它變得有點不穩定。

And we had the opportunity to work with them this summer to kind of smooth that out. And so we took all their deferrals from the various challenges they had with their supply chains, and we were able to fix the problems that were created from those deferrals and it kind of really smooth it out. So we feel very good about the profile, Duane.

今年夏天我們有機會與他們合作，以解決這個問題。因此，我們從他們的供應鏈面臨的各種挑戰中吸收了他們的所有延期，並且我們能夠解決這些延期所產生的問題，並且真正解決了這個問題。所以我們對杜安的個人資料感覺非常好。

Okay. I appreciate the thoughts.

好的。我很欣賞這些想法。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Christopher Stathoulopoulos, SFG.

克里斯托弗·斯塔索洛普洛斯，SFG。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for getting me on. So, Barry, just -- I'm going to keep it to one question, but two parts here. Just want to better understand how we should think about the network for 2025.

大家早安。謝謝你讓我上來。所以，巴里，我將只討論一個問題，但這裡分為兩個部分。只是想更了解我們應該如何看待 2025 年的網路。

So the earlier question, there was a question that relates to -- I think it was a mix of maturity versus longer standing -- or new versus mature capacity, if you could give that mix there. And then also, remind us of the criteria that you consider when evaluating new markets. So is that profitability by origination, cash profit by flight segment?

所以前面的問題，有一個問題涉及 - 我認為這是成熟與長期的混合 - 或新的與成熟的能力，如果你可以在那裡給出這種混合。然後，請提醒我們您在評估新市場時考慮的標準。那麼，這是按始發地劃分的獲利能力、按航段劃分的現金利潤嗎？

And then B, looking at your selling schedule for next year still taking shape. But just how should we think about whether it's you want to contextualize it insofar as breadth or placement of capacity, so regions, or perhaps crew versus non crew base routes? Thank you.

然後 B，看看明年的銷售計劃仍在形成中。但是，我們應該如何考慮您是否想要在運力的廣度或佈局、區域、或船員與非船員基地航線方面將其具體化？謝謝。

Okay. So there's a couple of parts in there. So what happened this year is with the redeployment, we had months. We were -- over a third of our flying was in new routes, if you will. And to be specific, what I said is we hope that by the time I get to mid next year that new flying very closely mirrors the amount of growth we have. So said another way, if we were growing 10%, we might have 10% in new markets.

好的。所以裡面有幾個部分。今年發生的事情是重新部署，我們有幾個月的時間。如果你願意的話，我們超過三分之一的飛行是在新航線上進行的。具體來說，我所說的是，我們希望到明年年中時，新的航班能夠非常接近反映我們的成長量。換句話說，如果我們成長 10%，我們可能會在新市場上獲得 10% 的成長。

So we'll probably likely grow outside our footprint for some time, for several years, rather than density within our existing. But if we see opportunities, we'll look at that.

因此，我們可能會在一段時間內、幾年內在我們的足跡之外發展，而不是在現有的密度範圍內發展。但如果我們看到機會，我們就會關注。

I'm sorry, on the other parts of your -- criteria for new routes. Look, we look for things that we think will make solid digit -- double-digit margins. And so when we look at our cost structure relative to what we think the revenue production is going to be, we -- I don't know, I'd say we're probably 97%, 98% accurate on costs.

抱歉，關於新路線標準的其他部分。聽著，我們尋找那些我們認為能夠帶來穩定數字的東西——兩位數的利潤率。因此，當我們考慮相對於我們認為的收入所產生的成本結構時，我們——我不知道，我想說我們的成本準確率可能是 97%、98%。

Every now and then, we get surprised, good or bad, on costs; and we've got about a two-thirds hit rate on the revenue estimates. And sometimes, like I mentioned, New Orleans didn't materialize. It didn't stimulate. We're not sure why, but we don't second guess why market dynamics happen. It just didn't.

我們時不時會對成本感到驚訝，無論好壞。我們的收入預測命中率約為三分之二。有時，就像我提到的，新奧爾良並沒有成為現實。它沒有刺激。我們不確定為什麼，但我們不會再猜測市場動態為何會發生。但事實並非如此。

And then so the last question is what regions -- it's hard to say. There could be some interesting opportunities. We tend to wait. We have the benefit of, largely, I think, probably closer in booking curve than most of the industry. And so we look at the opportunities.

最後一個問題是哪些地區——很難說。可能會有一些有趣的機會。我們傾向於等待。我認為，我們的好處是，在很大程度上，我們的預訂曲線可能比大多數行業更接近。所以我們著眼於機會。

So what's everybody going to be doing by next summer, it could open up an opportunity or two. We have a long list. We have kind of a rolling three to five year plan. And if someone -- [cuts] a bunch of -- we're going to go after it.

那麼明年夏天每個人都會做什麼，這可能會帶來一兩個機會。我們有一個很長的清單。我們有一個滾動的三到五年計劃。如果有人——[砍掉]一堆——我們就會追究它。

And I'm actually staring our planning head who's nodding his head. And that's going to be really market driven what opportunities present themselves, but we'll be the first ones to jump on it.

我實際上盯著我們的規劃負責人，他正在點頭。這將是真正由市場驅動的機會出現，但我們將是第一個抓住它的人。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

康納·坎寧安，Melius 研究中心。

Hi, everyone. Thank you. Maybe following up to that question. Barry, you talked about being the premier ULCC, so maybe you could just comment on the segment as a whole.

大家好。謝謝。也許跟進這個問題。Barry，您談到了成為首屈一指的 ULCC，所以也許您可以對整個細分市場進行評論。

Do you think the ULCC segment has made enough structural change at this point? Or is there further capacity rationalization that needs to come? And then within that, do you -- within your double-digit margin comment, do you expect further supply to come out?

您認為 ULCC 細分市場目前已經進行了足夠的結構性變革嗎？或是否需要進一步進行產能合理化？然後，在您兩位數的利潤率評論中，您是否預計會有更多供應？

Well, so look, I think we have validated that the ULCC model is fantastic. I think if we look at domestic only revenues and domestic only flying and parse that out from carriers that have a huge subsidy on half their business flying international, we think we're probably one of the top tier margins.

好吧，所以看，我認為我們已經驗證了 ULCC 模型非常棒。我認為，如果我們看看國內的收入和國內的航班，並從那些對一半的國際航班業務提供巨額補貼的航空公司中分析出來，我們認為我們可能是利潤率最高的公司之一。

And if you include loyalty, we are by far the best performing on a margin basis domestically in the United States, hands down. And so we think we validated our model. What's happened in the United States, there's just been simply too much capacity.

如果算上忠誠度，我們毫無疑問是美國國內利潤率表現最好的公司。所以我們認為我們驗證了我們的模型。美國發生的事情，只是產能過剩了。

And there's in particular been too much narrow body capacity, and those tend to have to fly the similar type routes. We are seeing the market forces push capacity out, and I think you're going to continue to see that happen.

特別是窄體飛機的載客量太多，而且這些飛機往往必須飛出類似類型的航線。我們看到市場力量將產能擠出，我認為這種情況將會繼續發生。

The industry will pull capacity until people reach their target margins. And I would argue you're a long way away from that. And so we expect to continue to see positive momentum.

該行業將擴大產能，直到人們達到目標利潤。我認為你離這個目標還有很長的路要走。因此，我們預計將繼續看到積極的勢頭。

We've made the tough decisions ourselves. We've seen other carriers do that, and history shows they'll continue to do it. So I remain pretty confident that that you will right size the capacity in the domestic US and the margins will come back in shape and the ULCC model will be the highest margin in that domestic space.

我們自己做了艱難的決定。我們已經看到其他運營商這樣做了，歷史表明他們將繼續這樣做。因此，我仍然非常有信心，您將調整美國國內的產能規模，利潤率將恢復正常，而 ULCC 型號將成為該國內領域利潤率最高的型號。

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe you could just talk a little bit about -- in the past, we've just talked about why scale matters a lot. Can you talk about why that matters to Frontier at this point from a sustained earnings perspective and cash flows over the long-term? Thank you.

好的。這很有幫助。然後也許你可以談談——在過去，我們剛剛討論了為什麼規模如此重要。您能否從持續獲利和長期現金流的角度談談為什麼這對 Frontier 來說很重要？謝謝。

Yes, sure. I think the biggest benefit to scale is actually on the revenue side. I mentioned it a while ago. The thing that we're most excited about is actually loyalty. And if you think about the opportunity that exists, if we could get from the low single digits to upper single digits, you can do the math.

是的，當然。我認為規模化的最大好處實際上是在收入方面。我不久前就提到過。我們最興奮的事情實際上是忠誠。如果你考慮存在的機會，如果我們能夠從低個位數到高個位數，你就可以進行數學計算。

$5 a passenger on 40 million passengers, that's $200 million a year; and that is benefited from scale. And so the more scale you have, the more top of mind your card and your loyalty currency is, and so the more usability they have. So that is one of the biggest benefits at the scale.

4,000 萬名乘客中每位乘客 5 美元，即每年 2 億美元；這得益於規模。因此，您的規模越大，您的卡片和忠誠度貨幣就越受重視，因此它們的可用性就越高。所以這是規模最大的好處之一。

I would argue, some carriers without our cost DNA oftentimes benefit from the, I guess, buying power. But we believe that we've kind of overcome some of those. So it's mainly on the revenue side.

我認為，一些沒有我們成本 DNA 的業者通常會從購買力中受益。但我們相信我們已經克服了其中一些問題。所以主要是在收入方面。

Sure, appreciate it. Thank you.

當然，欣賞它。謝謝。

Tom Fitzgerald, TD Cowen.

湯姆·菲茨杰拉德，TD·考恩。

Thanks so much for the time. Just sticking with that comment about other revenue per passenger going from a couple of bucks to, I think you said, $5 here. What is like the timeline? Is that something you're expecting next year or just going over the next handful of years, that's like your North Star that you're working towards?

非常感謝您抽出時間。只是堅持關於每位乘客的其他收入從幾美元到我想你說過的 5 美元的評論。時間軸是什麼樣的？這是您明年所期待的事情，還是未來幾年的事情，就像您正在努力實現的北極星一樣？

Yeah. I think it looks like a couple of years. We haven't laid out a, I guess, target yet. But we believe that it's very realistic to get in the $5 to $7 range over the next several coming years.

是的。我認為這看起來需要幾年的時間。我想我們還沒有訂定目標。但我們相信，在未來幾年內達到 5 至 7 美元的範圍是非常現實的。

Okay. That's really helpful. And then just a housekeeping one. It looks like fuel efficiency just in ASMs per gallons, that's been pretty muted year on year this quarter and last quarter even though you're still taking a lot of neos. Just wondering if I'm missing anything there or any comment on that.

好的。這真的很有幫助。然後只是一個家事服務。看起來燃油效率只是以每加侖 ASM 為單位，儘管您仍然使用大量 Neo，但本季和上季度的燃油效率比去年同期相當低。只是想知道我是否遺漏了任何內容或對此的任何評論。

Yeah. So that's a factor. We talked a little bit about the stage a while ago. You have to look at the fuel burn by stage. And so when we pulled down the stage, the taxi time stayed the same. The climb stayed the same and where you get efficiency is it cruise when you're running 500 miles an hour. But it's still industry leading and especially at that stage.

是的。所以這是一個因素。不久前我們談過一些關於舞台的事情。您必須按階段查看燃油消耗。因此，當我們拉下舞台時，計程車時間保持不變。爬升保持不變，當你以每小時 500 英里的速度跑步時，你會獲得效率。但它仍然處於行業領先地位，尤其是在那個階段。

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'll now turn it back to Barry Biffle for closing remarks.

謝謝。我目前沒有提出任何進一步的問題。現在我將把它轉回給巴里·比夫爾（Barry Biffle）做總結發言。

I want to thank everybody for joining today. We look forward to talking to you in 2025. We believe we are the premier ULCC, and we're really excited about the tailwinds that we've got going into next year. We'll talk to you in 2025.

我要感謝大家今天的加入。我們期待 2025 年與您交談。我們相信我們是首屈一指的 ULCC，我們對明年的順風車感到非常興奮。我們將在 2025 年與您交談。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的會議。這確實結束了該程式。您現在可以斷開連線。