聯合航空 (UAL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the United Airlines Holdings' Earnings Conference Call for the First Quarter 2023.

早上好，歡迎來到美國聯合航空控股公司 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。

My name is Cylus, and I will be your conference facilitator today.

我叫 Cylus，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

This call is being recorded and is copyrighted. Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed or rebroadcast without the company's permission. Your participation implies your consent to the recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line.

此通話正在錄音並受版權保護。請注意，未經公司許可，不得對通話的任何部分進行錄音、轉錄或轉播。您的參與意味著您同意對此次通話進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，只需掛斷電話即可。

I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Kristina Munoz, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我將把演示文稿交給今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係總監克里斯蒂娜·穆尼奧斯 (Kristina Munoz)。請繼續。

Thank you, Cylus. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release and investor update, which is available on our website, ir.united.com. Information in yesterday's release and the remarks made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, which represent the company's current expectations or beliefs concerning future events and financial performance. All forward-looking statements are based upon information currently available to the company.

謝謝你，賽勒斯。各位早上好，歡迎來到美聯航 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。昨天，我們發布了收益發布和投資者更新，可在我們的網站 ir.united.com 上獲取。昨天發布的信息和在本次電話會議上發表的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述，代表公司當前對未來事件和財務業績的預期或信念。所有前瞻性陳述均基於公司當前可獲得的信息。

A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release, Form 10-K and 10-Q and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors.

許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期存在重大差異。請參閱我們的收益發布、10-K 和 10-Q 表格以及聯合航空控股公司和聯合航空向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他報告，以更全面地描述這些因素。

Unless otherwise noted, we will be discussing our financial metrics on a non-GAAP basis on this call. Please refer to the related definitions and reconciliations in our press release. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings release.

除非另有說明，否則我們將在本次電話會議上討論非 GAAP 基礎上的財務指標。請參閱我們新聞稿中的相關定義和調節。如需將這些非 GAAP 指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 指標進行核對，請參閱我們收益發布末尾的表格。

Joining us on the call today to discuss our results and outlook are Chief Executive Officer, Scott Kirby; President, Brett Hart; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Gerry Laderman. In addition, we have other members of the executive team on the line available to assist with Q&A.

今天與我們一起討論我們的結果和展望的是首席執行官 Scott Kirby；總裁布雷特·哈特；執行副總裁兼首席商務官 Andrew Nocella；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Gerry Laderman。此外，我們還有其他管理團隊成員可以在線協助進行問答。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

現在我想把電話轉給斯科特。

Thanks, Kristina, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by thanking the entire United team for delivering exceptional operation this quarter, given our hub geography. United almost all -- has the most flights impacted by weather, air traffic control delays of any U.S. airline. But despite this in Q1, we had the lowest mainline flight and seat cancellation rates of any airline in the country. That's important, not just for the obvious customer and brand impact, but it's also the key to hitting our planned capacity and CASM-ex target. I'm going to leave the detailed quarterly results and guidance to Gerry and Andrew. But today, I'll take a few minutes to talk about 4 emerging themes that have come to the foreground and I think are important to the United investment case.

謝謝，克里斯蒂娜，大家早上好。鑑於我們的樞紐地理位置，我首先要感謝整個美聯航團隊在本季度提供出色的運營。 United almost all——在所有美國航空公司中受天氣、空中交通管制延誤影響的航班最多。但儘管如此，在第一季度，我們的主線航班和座位取消率是全國所有航空公司中最低的。這很重要，不僅是為了明顯的客戶和品牌影響，也是實現我們計劃產能和 CASM-ex 目標的關鍵。我將把詳細的季度業績和指導意見留給 Gerry 和 Andrew。但今天，我將花幾分鐘時間談談 4 個新興主題，這些主題已經浮出水面，我認為對聯合投資案例很重要。

One, there appears to be a clear change in seasonality that is causing peak leisure demand months, March through October to be even stronger, while months that were historically reliant on business demand are weaker, that particularly impacts January, February and the first half of November and December. We believe demand is just structurally different than it was pre-pandemic, and we're still figuring out that new normal.

第一，季節性似乎發生了明顯的變化，導致休閒需求高峰月份，3 月至 10 月更加強勁，而歷史上依賴商業需求的月份則較弱，尤其是 1 月、2 月和 2019 年上半年十一月和十二月。我們認為需求只是在結構上與大流行前不同，我們仍在尋找新常態。

Second, as we've expected all along, long-haul international is moving into the lead over domestic. Andrew will give more details, but this is a multiyear structural change based on aircraft retirements and pilot downgrades at essentially all long-haul U.S. airlines around the world, except United.

其次，正如我們一直預期的那樣，長途國際航線正在領先於國內航線。安德魯將提供更多細節，但這是一個多年的結構性變化，基於飛機退役和飛行員降級，基本上全球所有長途美國航空公司（聯合航空除外）。

But my third theme is an appropriately cautionary point. Our guidance and everything we're discussing today is our base case scenario based on what we're seeing right now. And what we're seeing right now is still strong demand. At airlines, the macroeconomic weakness is being offset with the countertrend of consumer spending continuing to rebalance back to services. And by the way, we still remain below our historical GDP relationship, arguably indicating more room to run on the revenue recovery.

但我的第三個主題是一個適當的警示點。我們的指導和我們今天討論的一切都是基於我們現在所看到的情況的基本情況。我們現在看到的仍然是強勁的需求。在航空公司，宏觀經濟的疲軟正在被消費者支出繼續重新平衡回到服務的逆勢所抵消。順便說一下，我們仍然低於我們的歷史 GDP 關係，可以說表明收入復甦還有更大的空間。

However, it seems clear that the macro risks are higher today than they were even a few months ago as demonstrated by the banking scare with Silicon Valley Bank. We saw an immediate drop in close-in business demand that lasted for about 2 weeks, but now appears to have recovered. Our base case, therefore, remains a mild recession or soft landing, which is consistent with what we're currently seeing in our bookings. But we agree that the tail risk is higher than normal. While we feel good about our $10 to $12 full year EPS, if the economy softens further, we've prepared for it by, a, having a lot of flexibility in the business on capacity of needed; b, improving our balance sheet to withstand the near-term issue with approximately $19 billion in liquidity and having reduced our total debt, including pension by $4.6 billion over the past 12 months; and c, it's actually my fourth theme, which is controlling what we can and hitting our CASM-ex target in this new, different and more challenging operating environment.

然而，很明顯，今天的宏觀風險甚至比幾個月前還要高，矽谷銀行的銀行業恐慌就證明了這一點。我們看到近距離業務需求立即下降，持續了大約 2 週，但現在似乎已經恢復。因此，我們的基本情況仍然是溫和的衰退或軟著陸，這與我們目前在預訂中看到的情況一致。但我們同意尾部風險高於正常水平。雖然我們對 10 到 12 美元的全年每股收益感到滿意，但如果經濟進一步走軟，我們已經做好了準備，a，在業務上根據所需的產能提供很大的靈活性； b、改善我們的資產負債表以應對短期問題，流動資金約為 190 億美元，並在過去 12 個月中減少了包括養老金在內的總債務 46 億美元； c，這實際上是我的第四個主題，它是在這個新的、不同的和更具挑戰性的操作環境中控制我們能做什麼並達到我們的 CASM-ex 目標。

We can't control what happens with the macro economy, but we can and are doing a great job of controlling our costs. You can't run your airline like it's 2019. It's different and harder now. Cancellation rates are the leading indicator of forward capacity and therefore, CASM-ex, and United is leading the way on this front. Gerry will discuss some of the year-over-year tailwinds that will drive lower CASM-ex in the back half of this year, but we only need CASM-ex to be approximately 1 point better in the second half of the year to hit our full year target. We remain solidly on track.

我們無法控制宏觀經濟的發展，但我們可以而且正在很好地控製成本。你不能像 2019 年那樣經營你的航空公司。現在不同了，也更難了。取消率是遠期運力的領先指標，因此，CASM-ex 和美聯航在這方面處於領先地位。 Gerry 將討論今年下半年將推動 CASM-ex 下降的一些同比順風因素，但我們只需要 CASM-ex 在下半年好約 1 個百分點即可達到我們的預期全年目標。我們仍然堅定地走在正軌上。

To wrap up over the last 3 years, our industry is confronted a rapidly changing environment. United hasn't been perfect, but we've got a lot more right than wrong. And on the big picture, we've gotten it right and took the steps in the last 3 years to thrive in exactly this environment. International is stronger. The operating environment is more challenging, which means reliability is harder, but also at a premium for producing bottom line results and we have confidence that our gauge growth and execution are keeping United uniquely on track for our near- and long-term CASM-ex trajectory. That's not to say that there aren't real near-term risks because we all know there are. But we feel really good about the strategic setup and tactical execution here at United.

總結過去 3 年，我們的行業面臨著瞬息萬變的環境。曼聯並不完美，但我們的正確多於錯誤。從大局來看，我們做對了，並在過去 3 年中採取了措施，在這種環境中蓬勃發展。國際化更強。運營環境更具挑戰性，這意味著可靠性更難，但對於產生底線結果也很重要，我們有信心我們的指標增長和執行將使美聯航在我們的近期和長期 CASM-ex 上獨一無二地走上正軌彈道。這並不是說不存在真正的近期風險，因為我們都知道存在風險。但我們對曼聯的戰略設置和戰術執行感覺非常好。

I want to again thank the entire United team for their hard work this quarter. We have a busy summer season ahead forward to achieving even more operational and financial records.

我想再次感謝整個曼聯團隊本季度的辛勤工作。我們將迎來一個繁忙的夏季，以實現更多的運營和財務記錄。

With that, I'll turn it over to Brett.

有了這個，我會把它交給布雷特。

Thank you, Scott, and thank you to our United team for their hard work this quarter. As Scott mentioned, we continue to see the benefits of running a strong operation.

謝謝斯科特，也感謝我們的曼聯團隊本季度的辛勤工作。正如 Scott 提到的，我們繼續看到強大運營的好處。

In the first quarter, United led the industry with the lowest seat cancellation rate despite around 20% of our flights being impacted by weather, the most of any of our competitors. This was the first time since 2012 that we led on this metric. Additionally, United was first or second in the quarter for on-time departures at nearly all of our hub locations, including those heavily impacted by winter weather like O'Hare and Denver. Our airline is built to run well and recover fast, and we expect our operation to reflect that through the peak summer season.

在第一季度，儘管我們約有 20% 的航班受到天氣影響，但在我們所有競爭對手中最多，但美聯航仍以最低的座位取消率領先於行業。這是自 2012 年以來我們首次在該指標上領先。此外，在我們幾乎所有的樞紐地點，包括奧黑爾和丹佛等受冬季天氣嚴重影響的樞紐地點，美聯航在本季度準點起飛方面排名第一或第二。我們的航空公司旨在運行良好并快速恢復，我們希望我們的運營能夠在夏季高峰期反映這一點。

We continue to navigate the challenges in the current operating environment. Specifically, a constrained industry infrastructure. United is working with the U.S. Department of Transportation and FAA regarding operational disruptions and air traffic staffing challenges. The FAA's decision to consider commercial air traffic with managing the growing number of space launches, combined with the FAA's recent move to give carriers more flexibility and how we all fly in and out of New York area airports shows that the FAA is listening to feedback and finding ways we can all work together.

我們繼續應對當前運營環境中的挑戰。具體而言，受限的行業基礎設施。美聯航正在與美國交通部和美國聯邦航空局就運營中斷和空中交通人員配置挑戰進行合作。美國聯邦航空局決定通過管理越來越多的太空發射來考慮商業空中交通，結合美國聯邦航空局最近為承運人提供更大靈活性的舉措以及我們如何進出紐約地區機場表明美國聯邦航空局正在聽取反饋和找到我們可以一起工作的方法。

In March, we took steps to reduce our schedule in the New York region and DCA by around 30 daily departures over the summer period to provide the airspace relief requested by the FAA. The schedule reductions are largely regional jet focused and will be redeployed at our other hubs, minimizing the capacity impact to the system. It is our hope that this will drive improved customer experience, offline United in the New York area and throughout our network.

3 月，我們採取措施將紐約地區和 DCA 的航班計劃在夏季期間每天減少約 30 班次，以提供美國聯邦航空局要求的空域救濟。計劃削減主要集中在支線噴氣式飛機上，並將重新部署在我們的其他樞紐，從而最大限度地減少對系統的運力影響。我們希望這將推動紐約地區和整個網絡的線下聯航改善客戶體驗。

We're excited to announce that we reached a tentative agreement with our nearly 30,000 employees represented by the International Association of Machinists, with voting on the agreement expected to be completed by May 1. We are very proud of the work that our team does daily to support our operation and create a positive travel experience for our customers.

我們很高興地宣布，我們與以國際機械師協會為代表的近 30,000 名員工達成了初步協議，預計將於 5 月 1 日完成對該協議的投票。我們為我們團隊每天所做的工作感到非常自豪支持我們的運營並為我們的客戶創造積極的旅行體驗。

Regarding other labor agreements, a new contract with our technicians represented by the IBT who gratified in January, and we are still in active negotiations with our flight attendants represented by the AFA and our pilots represented by ALPA. As a reminder, we reached an agreement with our dispatchers represented by PAFCA last year. We look forward to sharing further updates in the future.

關於其他勞動協議，我們與以 IBT 為代表的技術人員簽訂了一份新合同，他們在 1 月份表示滿意，我們仍在與以 AFA 為代表的空乘人員和以 ALPA 為代表的飛行員進行積極談判。提醒一下，我們去年與 PAFCA 代表的調度員達成了協議。我們期待在未來分享更多更新。

I once again want to thank our team for being the best in the industry. We remain confident in our outlook as we leverage our industry-leading operational performance and network advantages.

我要再次感謝我們的團隊成為行業中的佼佼者。我們仍然對我們的前景充滿信心，因為我們利用了我們行業領先的運營績效和網絡優勢。

And with that, I'll hand it over to Andrew to discuss the revenue environment.

有了這個，我將把它交給安德魯來討論收入環境。

Thanks, Brett. First quarter top line revenues of $11.4 billion finished consistent with our updated guidance of up 51% versus 2022. TRASM was up 22.5% year-over-year. While we were below our initial guidance, we expect that our TRASM performance in the first quarter will be top tier.

謝謝，布雷特。第一季度的總收入為 114 億美元，與我們最新的指引相符，即比 2022 年增長 51%。TRASM 同比增長 22.5%。雖然我們低於我們的初始指導，但我們預計我們在第一季度的 TRASM 表現將是頂級的。

As expected, other revenues in the quarter, while strong, are growing at a slower rate than passenger revenues, the opposite trend we saw last year and over the course of the pandemic. While Cargo revenue declined 37% year-over-year, it remains 39% above the same period in 2019.

正如預期的那樣，本季度的其他收入雖然強勁，但增長速度低於客運收入，這與我們去年和大流行期間看到的趨勢相反。雖然貨運收入同比下降 37%，但仍比 2019 年同期高出 39%。

MileagePlus other revenue had yet another strong quarter and was up 25% year-over-year, driven by our strategic partnership with Chase. United Credit Card continued to set records in Q1, including the highest first quarter ever for [card spend], new accounts up over 30% year-over-year and account attrition near historic lows. We also welcome Richard Nunn to the United team as the new CEO of MileagePlus.

在我們與大通銀行的戰略合作夥伴關係的推動下，前程萬里 (MileagePlus) 的其他收入又迎來了一個強勁的季度，同比增長 25%。 United Credit Card 在第一季度繼續創下紀錄，包括有史以來最高的第一季度[信用卡支出]、新賬戶同比增長超過 30% 以及接近歷史低點的賬戶流失率。我們也歡迎 Richard Nunn 加入美聯航團隊，擔任前程萬里 (MileagePlus) 的新任首席執行官。

As Scott indicated, we believe we're seeing different revenue seasonality for the United Network post-pandemic, and that change to impact our relative margin in Q1. New seasonality positively impacted March through October 2022, where new remote work schedule simulated business, particularly premium leisure. Ultimately, if these trends continue, we expect to be able to operate a more consistent level of capacity between March and October and future years. However, we believe the new seasonality negatively impacted Q1 in January or February, along with the first halves in November and December. With United's relatively small presence in the Caribbean and Florida where demand is usually strong in Q1 and over the winter months, the United network is more reliant on business traffic that has not fully recovered to pre-pandemic volumes in these periods.

正如 Scott 所指出的，我們相信我們看到聯合網絡在大流行後的收入季節性不同，並且這種變化會影響我們在第一季度的相對利潤率。新的季節性對 2022 年 3 月至 2022 年 10 月產生了積極影響，新的遠程工作時間表模擬了業務，尤其是高端休閒。最終，如果這些趨勢繼續下去，我們預計能夠在 3 月和 10 月以及未來幾年之間保持更一致的運力水平。然而，我們認為新的季節性因素對 1 月或 2 月的第一季度以及 11 月和 12 月的上半年產生了負面影響。由於美聯航在第一季度和冬季需求通常強勁的加勒比海和佛羅里達地區的業務相對較少，美聯航網絡更加依賴於這些時期尚未完全恢復到大流行前流量的業務流量。

United's global network and East West strengths are simply better aligned to March through October, post pandemic where leisure and premium leisure business compensate for less traditional business traffic.

美聯航的全球網絡和東西方優勢在大流行後的 3 月至 10 月之間更加吻合，休閒和高端休閒業務彌補了傳統業務流量的不足。

As we head into Q2 2023, we are tracking ahead of 2022 and all the ways that we measure business traffic, a really good sign for revenue momentum. While it's still early on, we do see corporate business from May and June tracking well ahead of the previous Months at this time. The business traffic rebound we're seeing is strongest in global long-haul markets, where a video conference is not a substitute for an in-person meeting. The recent bank and scare did initiate a slowdown in demand across multiple customer types in the quarter. Impact on business demand for domestic flying was the most significant, impact on domestic leisure was smaller, an impact on overall international demand was actually minimal. In the weeks after the scare, we saw business demand relative to the same period of 2019 declined by 8 points after steady progress experienced to the quarter to that point. This trend has since reversed back to pre-bank and scare levels.

當我們進入 2023 年第二季度時，我們正在跟踪 2022 年之前以及我們衡量業務流量的所有方式，這是收入增長勢頭的一個非常好的跡象。雖然現在還很早，但我們確實看到 5 月和 6 月的企業業務在這個時候比前幾個月要好得多。我們看到的業務流量反彈在全球長途市場最為強勁，視頻會議無法替代面對面會議。最近的銀行和恐慌確實引發了本季度多種客戶類型的需求放緩。國內飛行對商務需求的影響最為顯著，對國內休閒的影響較小，對整體國際需求的影響實際上很小。在恐慌發生後的幾週內，我們看到業務需求相對於 2019 年同期下降了 8 個百分點，此前該季度經歷了穩步進展。此後，這種趨勢已經逆轉回銀行前和恐慌水平。

In Q2, we expect total revenue to be up 14% to 16% versus the second quarter of 2022, with capacity up approximately 18.5%. Our expectation to our revenue in the second quarter continued to show strength with approximately 8% to 10% growth in domestic revenues and almost 30% for International.

在第二季度，我們預計總收入將比 2022 年第二季度增長 14% 至 16%，產能增長約 18.5%。我們對第二季度收入的預期繼續表現強勁，國內收入增長約 8% 至 10%，國際收入增長近 30%。

Second quarter bookings and revenues do look good versus the same point in 2022, with booked yields up 13% and 31% above 2019, respectively. For 2023, we expect to expand international flying by approximately twice the rate of domestic leaning into the favorable supply-demand balance that we expect. We'll be focused on extending United's leading position across the Atlantic and the Asia and the South Pacific. We believe this capacity deployment plan will set us up to meet our financial objectives given the stronger revenue outlook we are seeing for international flying and the rebound in Polaris cabin.

與 2022 年同期相比，第二季度的預訂量和收入確實不錯，預訂收益率分別比 2019 年增長 13% 和 31%。到 2023 年，我們預計國際航班的擴張速度約為國內航班的兩倍，以達到我們預期的有利供需平衡。我們將專注於擴大美聯航在大西洋、亞洲和南太平洋的領先地位。鑑於我們看到國際航班的收入前景更加強勁以及北極星機艙的反彈，我們相信這一容量部署計劃將使我們能夠實現我們的財務目標。

We'll also pass 2 critical milestones by this summer with all United international wide-body jets having the latest generation Polaris seat and a premium plus cabin. While further return to corporate business will help profitability in all quarters, we're not assuming that will occur in our 2023 revenue outlook.

到今年夏天，我們還將通過 2 個重要的里程碑，所有美聯航國際寬體噴氣式飛機均配備最新一代 Polaris 座椅和高級客艙。雖然企業業務的進一步回歸將有助於所有季度的盈利能力，但我們並不認為這會出現在我們的 2023 年收入前景中。

United scheduled capacity this summer is up 39% in the Atlantic but industry capacity, excluding United, is estimated to be down about 1%. United will operate an average of 207 daily flights across the Atlantic this summer. Across the Pacific, United plans to be up 14%, excluding China, with industry capacity down about 7%, both versus 2019. Overall, international ASMs will be 46% of United's capacity this summer versus 43% in 2019.

美聯航今年夏天在大西洋的預定運力增加了 39%，但不包括美聯航在內的行業運力估計下降了約 1%。今年夏天，美聯航平均每天運營 207 班橫跨大西洋的航班。在整個太平洋地區，聯合航空計劃增長 14%，不包括中國，與 2019 年相比，行業運力下降約 7%。總體而言，今年夏天國際 ASM 將佔聯合航空運力的 46%，而 2019 年為 43%。

Yesterday, we announced another set of capacity increases to the South Pacific ideally timed for the Southern summer later this year. These include the first-ever non-stop service from San Francisco to Christchurch, a new service from Los Angeles to Auckland in partnership with Air New Zealand, and to Los Angeles to Brisbane, where we'll connect to our new partner, Virgin Australia.

昨天，我們宣布了另一套南太平洋運力增加計劃，最理想的時機是在今年晚些時候的南方夏季。其中包括有史以來第一個從舊金山到基督城的直飛服務，與新西蘭航空公司合作的從洛杉磯到奧克蘭的新服務，以及從洛杉磯到布里斯班的新服務，我們將在布里斯班連接我們的新合作夥伴維珍澳大利亞航空.

Rebuilding connectivity back to our original 2019 standards in our Mid-Con hubs and Dallas will also be a long-term focus for our domestic line. The loss of regional jets turn the pandemic without mainline jets to backfill them cause connectivity to suffer. Peak bank sizes at our high flow hubs are down 10% to 20% versus 2019.

在我們的 Mid-Con 樞紐和達拉斯重建連接到我們最初的 2019 年標準，這也將是我們國內航線的長期重點。支線噴氣式飛機的損失導致大流行，而沒有乾線噴氣式飛機來回填它們，導致連通性受到影響。與 2019 年相比，我們高流量中心的峰值銀行規模下降了 10% 至 20%。

We were able to build connectivity and margins in 2018 and 2019 when we increase bank size connectivity, and we expect to execute a similar strategy in 2023 and 2024. However, this time around, we'll do it with the appropriately sized 737 jets instead of single-class regional jets. As requested by the FAA, we've reduced our planned flights from New York City this summer, including to and from Newark. We believe this will be the first time in years that Newark will operate within the airport's capacity abilities in most hours and consistent with the slot allocations. We're optimistic that between the new terminals and capacity consistent with the runway's capabilities, the customer experience will improve dramatically, and we appreciate the partnership with the FAA to make this happen.

2018 年和 2019 年，當我們增加銀行規模的連通性時，我們能夠建立連通性和利潤率，我們預計將在 2023 年和 2024 年執行類似的戰略。然而，這一次，我們將使用適當尺寸的 737 噴氣式飛機來實現單級支線噴氣式飛機。根據美國聯邦航空局的要求，我們減少了今年夏天從紐約市出發的計劃航班，包括往返紐瓦克的航班。我們相信，這將是紐瓦克多年來首次在機場的容量範圍內在大多數時間內運營，並與航班時刻分配保持一致。我們樂觀地認為，在新航站樓和與跑道能力相一致的容量之間，客戶體驗將得到顯著改善，我們感謝與 FAA 的合作以實現這一目標。

United will gain up to 17 new mainline gates in Terminal A and Newark this summer versus 2022, which will improve Newark's reliability and customer experience. Along with the new Newark gates, we will open a new United Club in Terminal A and in Terminal C later this year, adding 38,000 square feet and will be up 161% in club space relative to 2019.

與 2022 年相比，今年夏天美聯航將在 A 航站樓和紐瓦克增加多達 17 個新的主線登機口，這將提高紐瓦克的可靠性和客戶體驗。隨著新的紐瓦克登機口，我們將於今年晚些時候在 A 航站樓和 C 航站樓開設一個新的聯合俱樂部，增加 38,000 平方英尺，俱樂部空間將比 2019 年增加 161%。

As impressive as that club space measurement is in Newark, our club members in Denver will experience an opening of 3 United Clubs over the next year that include a total of 97,000 square feet, a 149% increase versus 2019. Construction of our new gates in Denver is also almost complete and will have 90 gates up from 66, we had in 2019, which we expect will allow us to dramatically increase bank sizes and connectivity in 2024 and 2025.

與紐瓦克的俱樂部空間測量一樣令人印象深刻，我們在丹佛的俱樂部會員明年將體驗 3 家聯合俱樂部的開業，其中包括總面積 97,000 平方英尺，比 2019 年增加 149%。丹佛也幾乎完工，將從 2019 年的 66 個增加到 90 個，我們預計這將使我們能夠在 2024 年和 2025 年大幅增加銀行規模和連通性。

At United, we remain focused on our high ground, structural strengths focused on global long haul, correcting connectivity issues in our Mid-Con hubs that surface during the pandemic and, of course, gauge, increases that are consistent with our large hub markets. Our capacity plan for this year remains in place without adjustment as we operate with strong operational results.

在美聯航，我們仍然專注於我們的製高點、專注於全球長途航線的結構優勢，糾正在大流行期間出現的我們的中型樞紐的連接問題，當然，衡量與我們的大型樞紐市場一致的增長。我們今年的產能計劃沒有調整，因為我們的運營業績強勁。

With that, I wanted to say thanks to the entire United team, and I'll turn it over to Gerry.

說到這裡，我想對整個曼聯團隊表示感謝，我會把它交給格里。

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning to everyone.

謝謝，安德魯，大家早上好。

Let's start with our first quarter results. Our pre-tax loss of $256 million was in line with expectations and at the better end of our updated guidance issued last month. We saw losses in January and February due to seasonal weakness, but March turned solidly profitable. Our first quarter fuel price of $3.33 came in at the lower end of our revised guidance range. This was still about $0.14 higher than our expectation at the start of the quarter due to a spike in jet fuel prices in late January and early February.

讓我們從第一季度的業績開始。我們 2.56 億美元的稅前虧損符合預期，並且處於我們上個月發布的更新指導的較好結局。由於季節性疲軟，我們在 1 月和 2 月看到虧損，但 3 月轉為穩健盈利。我們第一季度的燃油價格為 3.33 美元，處於我們修訂後的指導範圍的下限。由於 1 月底和 2 月初航空燃油價格飆升，這仍比我們在本季度初的預期高出約 0.14 美元。

Turning to nonfuel costs. Our first quarter CASM-ex came in slightly better than our revised guidance range at down 0.1% versus the first quarter last year. Our operational performance in the first quarter was truly exceptional, and our CASM-ex fee is largely due to the cost benefit of a reliable operation.

轉向非燃料成本。我們第一季度的 CASM-ex 略好於我們修訂後的指導範圍，比去年第一季度下降 0.1%。我們在第一季度的運營業績確實非常出色，我們的 CASM-ex 費用主要是由於可靠運營的成本效益。

On the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with approximately $19 billion in liquidity. We continue to leverage the flexibility provided by our cash with financing opportunities and paying down debt. We generated over $3 billion in operating cash flow in the first quarter, the highest for any quarter in United's history, and we produced free cash flow of over $1 billion. Over the last 12 months, our total debt, including pension liability, has declined by approximately $4.6 billion, and we remain on track to meet our 2023 target of adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDAR of less than 3x.

在資產負債表上，本季度末我們的流動資金約為 190 億美元。我們繼續利用現金提供的靈活性來提供融資機會和償還債務。我們在第一季度產生了超過 30 億美元的運營現金流，是美聯航歷史上任何一個季度的最高水平，我們產生了超過 10 億美元的自由現金流。在過去 12 個月中，我們的總債務（包括養老金負債）減少了約 46 億美元，我們仍有望實現 2023 年調整後淨債務與調整後 EBITDAR 之比低於 3 倍的目標。

Looking ahead, we expect second quarter CASM-ex to be flat to up 2%, with capacity up approximately 18.5% both versus the second quarter of last year. Strong cost performance underpins our confidence in the earnings trajectory of the business in the second quarter, we expect adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.50 to $4, with a fuel price of $2.80 to $3. As noted in our investor update, this fuel price is based on prices as of April 12.

展望未來，我們預計第二季度 CASM-ex 將持平至增長 2%，與去年第二季度相比，產能增長約 18.5%。強勁的成本表現鞏固了我們對該業務第二季度盈利軌蹟的信心，我們預計調整後的攤薄每股收益為 3.50 美元至 4 美元，燃油價格為 2.80 美元至 3 美元。正如我們在投資者更新中指出的那樣，該燃油價格基於截至 4 月 12 日的價格。

As others mentioned, our strong operational performance in the first quarter sets the tone for the remainder of the year, and is key to our conviction in achieving our CASM-ex targets. For the full year, we continue to be on track to keep CASM-ex approximately flat versus 2022 with nonfuel unit costs in the second half of this year declining versus the second half of last year. To give context as to why we expect CASM-ex in the second half of this year to improve on a year-over-year basis versus the first half of this year, it's helpful to consider the 2022 cost baseline.

正如其他人所提到的，我們在第一季度的強勁運營業績為今年剩餘時間定下了基調，並且是我們實現 CASM-ex 目標的信念的關鍵。對於全年，我們繼續有望使 CASM-ex 與 2022 年持平，今年下半年的非燃料單位成本與去年下半年相比有所下降。為了說明為什麼我們預計今年下半年的 CASM-ex 與今年上半年相比會同比有所改善，考慮 2022 年的成本基準是有幫助的。

With COVID still significantly impacting the business in the first half of last year, we have certain unique headwinds in the first half of this year when comparing costs on a year-over-year basis. There are 2 notable examples. Revenue in the first half of 2022 was much lower than the second half of 2022, which meant that distribution costs were also much lower in the first half of last year versus the second half. This drives the year-over-year comparisons for the first half of this year to be commensurately higher than the second half of this year. A similar phenomenon exists with maintenance expense. As Omicron abated and the recovery took hold, we ramped up our maintenance activity in the back half of '22 to more normalized levels. Again, the difference in year-over-year costs are much more muted in the second half of this year versus the first half.

由於 COVID 在去年上半年仍然對業務產生重大影響，因此在與去年同期比較成本時，我們在今年上半年遇到了一些獨特的逆風。有 2 個值得注意的例子。 2022 年上半年的收入遠低於 2022 年下半年，這意味著去年上半年的分銷成本也遠低於下半年。這使得今年上半年的同比比較相應高於今年下半年。維護費用也存在類似現象。隨著 Omicron 的減弱和復甦的站穩腳跟，我們將 22 年後半年的維護活動增加到更正常的水平。同樣，與上半年相比，今年下半年的同比成本差異要小得多。

So simply put, the 2 items represent a 1- to 2-point CASM-ex headwind in the first half of this year, which won't exist in the second half. These drivers, along with strategic cost management, gauge growth and running a reliable operation support our expectation that we will hit our flat CASM-ex target for the year. When combined with our revenue outlook, we remain confident in our trajectory towards $10 to $12 in adjusted diluted EPS for the full year, whether we face a mild recession or soft landing.

所以簡單地說，這兩項代表了今年上半年 1 到 2 點的 CASM-ex 逆風，下半年不會存在。這些驅動因素，連同戰略成本管理，衡量增長和運行可靠的運營支持我們的預期，即我們將實現今年持平的 CASM-ex 目標。結合我們的收入前景，無論我們面臨溫和衰退還是軟著陸，我們仍然對全年調整後攤薄每股收益 10 至 12 美元的軌跡充滿信心。

As we have left the starting gate for our United Next plan, I'm encouraged by the progress we've made not only financially but in our operation and across the entire organization. While we continue to live in uncertain times. I know that we will successfully manage everything under our control as we continue on a path to reach our full year financial objectives.

當我們離開 United Next 計劃的起點時，我對我們不僅在財務上而且在我們的運營和整個組織中取得的進展感到鼓舞。雖然我們繼續生活在不確定的時代。我知道，在我們繼續實現全年財務目標的過程中，我們將成功地管理我們控制下的一切。

And with that, I will turn it over to Kristina for the Q&A.

然後，我將把它交給 Kristina 進行問答。

Thank you, Gerry. We will now take questions from the analyst community. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，格里。我們現在將回答分析師社區的問題。 （操作員說明）

Cylus, please describe the procedure to ask a question.

Cylus，請描述提問的程序。

(Operator Instructions) The first question comes from Catherine O'Brien from Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自高盛的凱瑟琳奧布萊恩。

So there's been a lot of investor concern recently around the domestic slowdown. So I think I'll just get right to that. I know United is built to lean into the international strength. But can you just help us think about what's driving the domestic unit revenue performance to underperform international, at least based on first quarter versus '19. Is there a shift in leisure demand to international from domestic that might be exaggerated right now post pandemic? International business is stronger, as you know prepared remarks, something else?

因此，最近投資者對國內經濟放緩感到擔憂。所以我想我會做對的。我知道曼聯是為了依靠國際力量而建立的。但是你能不能幫我們想想是什麼導致國內單位收入表現不及國際表現，至少基於第一季度與 19 年的對比。休閒需求是否有從國內轉向國際的轉變，這種轉變在大流行後現在可能會被誇大？國際業務更強，如您所知，準備好的言論，還有什麼？

And then I saw you had another record first quarter build in the air traffic liability. Would also be helpful just to talk through how much you have on the books, domestic versus international first quarter.

然後我看到你在第一季度的空中交通責任方面又創下了新紀錄。僅僅談談你在賬簿上有多少，國內和國際第一季度也很有幫助。

Sure, Catherine. We're getting this question about domestic strength a lot and we should really address it. The way when we go back thinking about it, how to describe the conditions of this Q2, we have to recall Q2 of last year, Q2 of 2022 was the best domestic TRASM quarter ever for United with TRASM up 25% versus Q2 of 2019, which, by the way, was a prior record holder. We simply sent a really hard comp for Q2 2023. And also last year at this time, international markets were not widely open to travelers, in my view, selected domestic trips out of caution, just creating unprecedented demand relative to the number of seats available to sell. This year's conditions are different. International travel is more or less completely open, and we see customers clearly excited about taking a long-haul trip. Domestic capacity is also now comparable to 2019 levels.

當然，凱瑟琳。我們經常收到關於國內實力的問題，我們真的應該解決這個問題。當我們回過頭來思考它，如何描述這個第二季度的情況時，我們不得不回顧去年的第二季度，2022 年第二季度是曼聯有史以來最好的國內 TRASM 季度，TRASM 比 2019 年第二季度增長了 25%，順便說一句，它是先前的記錄保持者。我們只是為 2023 年第二季度發送了一個非常艱難的比較。而且去年這個時候，國際市場並未對旅行者廣泛開放，在我看來，出於謹慎選擇國內旅行，只是創造了相對於可用座位數量的前所未有的需求賣。今年的情況有所不同。國際旅行或多或少是完全開放的，我們看到客戶顯然對長途旅行感到興奮。國內產能現在也與 2019 年的水平相當。

So here are the facts, domestic ASMs at United will be up about 10% in Q2 2023 year-over-year. And our TRASM outlook for domestic will be negative low single digits from what I've said today. Total domestic revenue should finish well above 2022, given our TRASM outlook on capacity growth of about 10%. We're currently booked about 10% ahead in gross revenue at this point compared to last year, and we're about 54% into the booking curve for the quarter.

因此，事實是，2023 年第二季度，美聯航的國內 ASM 將同比增長約 10%。從我今天所說的來看，我們對國內的 TRASM 前景將是負的低個位數。鑑於我們 TRASM 對產能增長約 10% 的展望，國內總收入應該會遠高於 2022 年。目前，與去年相比，我們目前的總收入提前約 10%，本季度的預訂曲線約為 54%。

I just don't see these facts as weak when revenue is on target to again break the record and TRASM is likely to be just a bit behind an amazingly strong 2022.

當收入有望再次打破記錄並且 TRASM 可能僅落後於驚人強勁的 2022 年時，我並不認為這些事實是微弱的。

In summary, when Q2 2023 is in the books, we will likely be our second (inaudible) best domestic TRASM quarter ever with record total domestic revenues. The only thing negative, I think I can say is that as good as domestic looks, it's just not matching global long-haul revenue outlook, which is very strong and where United has focused a majority of its capacity.

總而言之，當 2023 年第二季度出現時，我們可能會成為有史以來第二個（聽不清）最好的國內 TRASM 季度，國內總收入創歷史新高。唯一不利的是，我想我可以說的是，儘管國內看起來不錯，但它與全球遠程收入前景不符，而全球遠程收入前景非常強勁，而且美聯航的大部分運力都集中在這個領域。

Non ATL.

非 ATL。

On the ATL, I think it's seasonally moving in a normal way. I don't know, Gerry wants to add anything else on the ATL question.

在 ATL 上，我認為它是按正常方式季節性移動的。我不知道，Gerry 想在 ATL 問題上添加任何其他內容。

Okay. Your question about international versus domestic, you're actually the first person to ask us that question. So we'll follow-up with you.

好的。你關於國際與國內的問題，實際上你是第一個問我們這個問題的人。所以我們會跟進你。

The next question comes from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的傑米貝克。

Just chuckling at Gerry's response to Catie there. On the ATL, Gerry, the build obviously helped with free cash flow generation in the quarter. Presumably, the ATL will incrementally moderate in the second half as it often does. Do you still think you can cover this year's $9 billion in CapEx and generate positive free cash flow?

只是嘲笑 Gerry 對 Catie 的回應。在 ATL 上，Gerry，構建顯然有助於本季度產生自由現金流。據推測，ATL 將像往常一樣在下半年逐步緩和。您仍然認為您可以支付今年 90 億美元的資本支出並產生正的自由現金流嗎？

Yes, Jamie, I think we can.

是的，傑米，我想我們可以。

Okay. Fair enough. Second to Andrew, relative to the international component. You've got a lot of new route activity. Can you speak to sort of like same-store sales or same-store RASM or revenue, I guess, relative to those new routes? And how does the ramp to profitability in all of these new markets compared to that in the past? I mean, are new markets maturing much faster? Or does it take about the same amount of time as it ever take? I'm just trying to think about the read-through as some of these trends normalize next year.

好的。很公平。相對於國際部分，僅次於安德魯。你有很多新的路線活動。你能說說同店銷售額或同店 RASM 或收入，我猜，相對於那些新路線？與過去相比，所有這些新市場的盈利能力如何提升？我的意思是，新市場是否成熟得更快？還是它花費的時間與以往一樣多？我只是想考慮通讀，因為其中一些趨勢明年會正常化。

There's -- for global long haul, there is virtually no school up right now, Jamie. It gives the supply-demand equation is just not what it's ever been in the past. While United supply across the Atlantic and Pacific is dramatically up, and we're happy it is dramatically up, obviously. Industry flies down. So what I would tell you is that the new routes come in very quickly with very strong profitability, which is why we keep adding them.

傑米，對於全球長期而言，現在幾乎沒有學校。它給出的供需方程與過去不同。雖然大西洋和太平洋的美聯航供應量急劇增加，但我們很高興它明顯增加了。行業飛速下滑。所以我要告訴你的是，新航線的推出速度非常快，盈利能力非常強，這就是我們不斷增加它們的原因。

That being said, in terms of same-store sales, I will say that London Heathrow is probably our weakest at this point because there's just -- that there is a large amount of capacity in London Heathrow relative to the rest of the world, and we've grown there. And our connections within Europe in our key hubs are -- have not fully recovered, just like they haven't domestically. And so we actually do see some relative weakness in certain parts of the global network off of a strong base. But the new routes to your question are just coming in with home runs on day 1.

話雖這麼說，就同店銷售額而言，我會說倫敦希思羅機場可能是我們目前最弱的，因為 - 倫敦希思羅機場相對於世界其他地區的容量很大，而且我們在那里長大。我們在歐洲主要樞紐的聯繫還沒有完全恢復，就像在國內沒有恢復一樣。因此，我們確實看到全球網絡的某些部分在強大的基礎上存在一些相對弱點。但是你的問題的新路線只是在第一天的本壘打中出現。

The next question comes from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

Just the 2023 [cost-ex] rate seems pretty encouraging. I know you mentioned maintenance and distribution as being a main driver from the first half to second half, but it still seems mean that you're holding incremental cost. I mean, that may be the cost of doing business right now. But just curious if you could talk about what potentially rolls off next year as we start to think about CASM-ex there?

僅 2023 年的 [cost-ex] 利率似乎就相當令人鼓舞。我知道你提到維護和分配是上半年到下半年的主要驅動因素，但這似乎仍然意味著你持有增量成本。我的意思是，這可能就是現在做生意的成本。但是很好奇，當我們開始考慮那裡的 CASM-ex 時，您是否可以談談明年可能推出的產品？

So I'm not sure I would call it rolling off. But keep in mind, next year, one of the benefits we're really going to start seeing is that growth in Mainline gauge, as the aircraft continue to come in. That process is really just starting this year. So next year, we get the full run rate of the larger gauge aircraft and take even more next year. So when you're looking sort of where the tailwinds are next year gauges one. And the comps year-over-year are going to be better.

所以我不確定我會稱之為滾動。但請記住，明年，我們真正開始看到的好處之一是隨著飛機的不斷投入，主線儀表的增長。這個過程今年才剛剛開始。所以明年，我們將獲得更大規格飛機的全部運行率，明年甚至更多。因此，當您尋找明年的順風時，可以衡量一個。年復一年的補償會更好。

Think of this year is really finally getting to the run rate of the post-COVID sort of full operation. So I think as an industry, we're done with a lot of the surprises we all kind of saw coming out of COVID with some of the cost pressures. So I think from the cost side, the business has become more stable and a little more predictable.

想想今年真的終於達到了 COVID 後全面運營的運行率。因此，我認為作為一個行業，我們已經完成了 COVID 帶來的許多驚喜以及一些成本壓力。所以我認為從成本方面來看，業務變得更加穩定，也更具可預測性。

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. And then just on the evolving booking curve and seasonality that you've been talking about. Just curious how your compact going to combat those challenges going forward? I mean Delta has mentioned they're talking about looking at like overbooking and like incurring with the inventory. Just curious what the strategy is at United, if there is one to combat those changes in the booking curve.

好的。好的。這很有幫助。然後就是您一直在談論的不斷變化的預訂曲線和季節性。只是好奇您的契約將如何應對未來的挑戰？我的意思是達美航空已經提到他們正在談論尋找超額預訂和庫存等問題。只是好奇曼聯的策略是什麼，是否有一個策略來應對預訂曲線的這些變化。

Sure. Well, we think we clearly have the best RM system in the world, by the way. That's what it'll start off with. While there's been a small change in the number of tickets not flown in the quarter, due to the increased flexibility created on United eliminated change fees. It's our view that it's not really material and it's fully accounted for by our RM systems. And I'll add on to that, our no-show rate is lower as well, and we will not be changing our overbooking levels at this point.

當然。好吧，順便說一句，我們認為我們顯然擁有世界上最好的 RM 系統。這就是它的開始。雖然本季度未使用的機票數量略有變化，但由於聯合航空的靈活性增加，取消了改簽費。我們認為這並不重要，我們的 RM 系統已將其完全考慮在內。我還要補充一點，我們的未入住率也較低，此時我們不會改變我們的超額預訂水平。

The next question comes from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

Just a question on the MAX deliveries. It looks like you had 3 more deliveries than the prior plan in 1Q, but for the full year, kind of slipped a little bit. Just curious how you're feeling about confidence on kind of the MAX deliveries, especially given the recent news?

只是關於 MAX 交付的問題。看起來你們在第一季度的交付量比之前的計劃多了 3 次，但就全年而言，有點下滑。只是好奇您對 MAX 交付的信心如何，尤其是考慮到最近的消息？

Okay. Savi, from what we know on the recent news, we don't think that's going to have much of an impact on us, certainly won't have an impact on second quarter and what -- and I think you may have seen this yourself, is Boeing has gotten back on track on delivering aircraft. Deal the issues that they had over the prior few years, they've really managed well. And the impact from what we know today for the full year just will be minor.

好的。薩維，根據我們對最近新聞的了解，我們認為這不會對我們產生太大影響，當然不會對第二季度產生影響——我想你自己可能已經看到了，波音公司是否已經重回交付飛機的軌道。處理他們前幾年遇到的問題，他們確實處理得很好。而我們今天所知道的全年影響將很小。

Okay. That's helpful, Gerry. And maybe along those lines, a follow-up on the fuel efficiency, there's a little kind of surprised by kind of what we saw here in the first quarter, maybe a little bit less than what we've seen last year. What's your expectation around how that trends kind of going forward, especially kind of given that, that's another part of the kind of the cost benefit in the United Next Plan?

好的。這很有幫助，格里。也許沿著這些思路，關於燃油效率的後續行動，我們在第一季度在這裡看到的情況有點令人驚訝，可能比我們去年看到的要少一些。您對這種趨勢如何向前發展有何期望，尤其是考慮到這是 United Next Plan 中成本效益的另一部分？

Well, as we start seeing more and more of the MAXs, we'll start seeing that improvement that we've sort of talked about on United Next. Remember, we've just started taking delivery of those incremental aircraft. And there'll be a nice pop in that as well once the MAX 10 delivers at some point.

好吧，隨著我們開始看到越來越多的 MAX，我們將開始看到我們在 United Next 上談到的那種改進。請記住，我們剛剛開始接收這些增量飛機。一旦 MAX 10 在某個時候交付，也會有一個很好的流行。

So just from a critical mass standpoint, when does that -- when do you think roughly that is based on like what you know today, I guess?

所以從臨界質量的角度來看，什麼時候——我猜你什麼時候粗略地認為這是基於你今天所知道的？

Yes. It starts to kick in next year, critical mass, maybe the year after.

是的。它明年開始發揮作用，達到臨界質量，也許是後年。

Okay. That's really helpful, Thank you.

好的。這真的很有幫助，謝謝。

I'm just going to see the trend. Quarter-by-quarter.

我只是來看看趨勢。一個季度一個季度。

The next question comes from Mike Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg。

When I look at your sort of loads from fourth quarter to March quarter, I mean, you can see that seasonal hit. And Andrew, when I saw that I sort of thought maybe it had to do with a higher no-show rate, but you sort of just addressed that, that is not an issue. As you add more service to places like New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Brazil, et cetera, does that -- we should see improvement in that, right? Maybe you never actually are able to get to the level of, say, an American or Delta from a seasonal perspective. But to some extent, you should be able to mitigate that as we think about the seasonality. Is that -- is that kind of where we're headed? Do we see that really start to narrow versus the industry?

當我查看您從第四季度到三月季度的負載時，我的意思是，您可以看到季節性衝擊。安德魯，當我看到它時，我有點想這可能與更高的未出現率有關，但你只是解決了這個問題，這不是問題。當您向新西蘭、澳大利亞、南非、巴西等地添加更多服務時，我們應該看到改進，對嗎？從季節性的角度來看，也許您實際上永遠無法達到美國或三角洲的水平。但在某種程度上，當我們考慮季節性時，你應該能夠減輕這種情況。那是——那是我們要去的地方嗎？我們是否看到與行業相比真的開始縮小？

It's a good question. And our intent is to get it to narrow. But we do -- we're simply smaller in Florida due to a lot of reasons that can't be addressed in a matter of a few quarters, we have to be addressed over years. And so while our goal is to narrow that gap in Q1, I don't think to be blunt, we're going to be able to eliminate it.

這是個好問題。我們的目的是縮小範圍。但我們確實如此——由於很多原因無法在幾個季度內解決，我們必須在多年內解決，因此我們在佛羅里達州的規模較小。因此，雖然我們的目標是縮小第一季度的差距，但我不認為直言不諱，我們將能夠消除它。

Clearly, the introduction of counter-seasonal fly into the South Pacific definitely helps put it in the right direction, and we'll be looking for more opportunities and we'll be looking to grow Florida, I think, faster than probably most of our competitors because we're just so relatively small. But ultimately, I do think Q1 is going to continue to be our weakest quarter and a recovery of business traffic in Q1 will do the most to help our relative Q1 results.

顯然，將反季節飛行引入南太平洋肯定有助於將其引向正確的方向，我們將尋找更多機會，我們將尋求發展佛羅里達州，我認為，這可能比我們大多數人更快競爭對手，因為我們相對較小。但最終，我確實認為第一季度將繼續成為我們最疲軟的季度，第一季度業務流量的複蘇將對我們相對的第一季度業績的幫助最大。

Okay. And then just sort of as a follow-on and tied to that, when you look at the announcement that you did make yesterday, I mean it's -- it seems like it's going to need a decent amount of additional capacity. And when I look at your fleet this year, I think you took 2, 78 in the March quarter, it does not look like we're going to see any more widebodies coming in. How are you funding a lot of that new service later this year? Should we assume that maybe it's going to -- China is not going to come back as much? Are you going to pull from other parts of the operation? I'm just trying to figure out where you're going to get the aircraft because some of these routes require more than one airplane just to do daily round trip service?

好的。然後只是作為後續行動並與此相關聯，當你查看你昨天所做的公告時，我的意思是它 - 它似乎需要大量的額外容量。當我查看你們今年的機隊時，我認為你們在 3 月季度有 2 架、78 架，看起來我們不會看到更多的寬體機進入。你們以後如何為這項新服務提供大量資金今年？我們是否應該假設它可能會——中國不會像以前那樣捲土重來？你要從操作的其他部分拉出來嗎？我只是想弄清楚您要從哪裡獲得飛機，因為其中一些航線需要不止一架飛機來提供每日往返服務？

Definitely was quite a few aircraft heading towards the South Pacific. What I would tell you is that we just seasonally reduced Europe and we would otherwise, but many of those widebodies into our domestic system. And this year, our maintenance. And this year, those aircraft will be flying to the South Pacific, which we think is their best use.

肯定有相當多的飛機飛往南太平洋。我要告訴你的是，我們只是季節性地減少了歐洲，否則我們會這樣做，但其中許多寬體機進入了我們的國內系統。而今年，我們的維護。今年，這些飛機將飛往南太平洋，我們認為這是它們的最佳用途。

In regards to China, we continue to be stuck at 4 flights per week. We are preparing to supply more than that, but have been unable to get that done so far. But hopefully, later this year, we will be flying more to China, and we have the aircraft to do so if the conditions are -- allow us to do so.

關於中國，我們繼續停留在每週 4 個航班。我們正準備提供更多，但到目前為止還無法完成。但希望今年晚些時候，我們將有更多飛往中國的航班，如果條件允許，我們有飛機可以這樣做——允許我們這樣做。

The next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

I wanted to ask about one of the themes Scott started the call with on flexibility. And maybe a follow-up to Mike's question just there. But first on seasonal shaping capacity. Given the new normal, is there a greater emphasis recently on seasonally shaping capacity? And how does maybe lack of regional lift or lack of ability to kind of flex up on regionals limit your ability to do that, if at all?

我想問的是 Scott 在電話會議開始時提出的關於靈活性的主題之一。也許就在那裡跟進邁克的問題。但首先是季節性塑造能力。鑑於新常態，最近是否更加強調季節性塑造容量？如果有的話，可能缺乏區域提升或缺乏在區域上發揮作用的能力如何限制你這樣做的能力？

It's a really good question. And I am hopeful that after further evidence that we'll be able to operate a more stable schedule all the way from March through the end of October, which I think will definitely benefit our cost structure having less of the peak. However, we are not there just yet. I think we need to make it through this year. We need to see how the remote work schedules continue to play out. We need to, in particular, see how this September and this October do -- they were fantastic, obviously, last year. And I think that will help us validate for next year whether we actually change the seasonal shape in, as I just described. And hopefully, we can, but we're not ready to really jump into the deep end of that pool today. So we will continue to peak the airline in July as we normally do, and we'll see where we go from there.

這是一個非常好的問題。我希望在進一步的證據表明我們能夠從 3 月到 10 月底一直運行更穩定的時間表，我認為這肯定有利於我們的成本結構，減少高峰期。但是，我們還沒有到那一步。我認為我們需要度過今年。我們需要看看遠程工作時間表如何繼續發揮作用。我們尤其需要看看今年 9 月和 10 月的表現如何——顯然，去年它們非常棒。我認為這將幫助我們在明年驗證我們是否真的像我剛才描述的那樣改變了季節性形狀。希望我們可以，但我們今天還沒有準備好真正跳入那個游泳池的深處。因此，我們將像往常一樣繼續在 7 月達到航空公司的高峰，我們將看看我們從那裡去哪裡。

In terms of regional jets, the lack of regional jets has definitely hurt our connectivity. This is an issue. I talked about it, and we're very focused on rebuilding that connectivity with the right jets going forward. And in fact, we don't intend to ever go back to the fleet of approximately 600 regional jets we had in 2019. We think the economics have changed. We think the business has changed and we need to change with it.

就支線噴氣機而言，支線噴氣機的缺乏肯定會損害我們的連通性。這是一個問題。我談到了它，我們非常專注於重建與未來正確噴氣機的連接。事實上，我們永遠不打算回到 2019 年擁有的大約 600 架支線噴氣式飛機的機隊。我們認為經濟已經發生變化。我們認為業務已經發生變化，我們需要隨之改變。

That being said, on the good news front, the regional jet pilot situation has recently -- in our mind, stabilized. We're no longer losing pilots at the same rate we were earlier -- very early this year or last year. And the production of block hours in our regional jet division at the end of this year will be consistent with the production of block hours that we started the year with. And I can tell you that our original budget for that was not that. We thought we would continue to see deterioration.

話雖這麼說，但好消息是，支線噴氣式飛機飛行員的情況最近——在我們看來，已經穩定下來。我們不再以與早些時候相同的速度流失飛行員——今年或去年非常早。今年年底我們支線噴氣機部門的輪擋小時數將與我們年初的輪擋小時數保持一致。我可以告訴你，我們最初的預算並不是那樣。我們認為我們會繼續看到惡化。

So the good news there is the regional jets are going to be able to at least temporarily help us boost our connectivity as we wait for all of our mainline jet (inaudible) Boeing to deliver over the next 2 or so years.

因此，好消息是，在我們等待所有主線噴氣式飛機（聽不清）波音在未來 2 年左右交付時，支線噴氣式飛機至少能夠暫時幫助我們提高連通性。

And then just sticking with the flexibility theme on capacity and the idea that you could kind of take capacity lower if the environment warranted. How much lower could you take it, I guess, relative to the high teens, 20% in the back half? And just conceptually, are we solving for margins this year? Or are we solving for CASM?

然後堅持關於容量的靈活性主題，以及如果環境允許，你可以降低容量的想法。我猜，相對於後半部分的 20%，你能接受多少？從概念上講，我們今年是否正在解決利潤問題？或者我們正在解決 CASM？

I don't think we're ever solving for CASM. We're solving for margin and, of course, the [10% to 12%]. So that will always be our focus.

我認為我們永遠不會解決 CASM。我們正在解決保證金問題，當然還有 [10% 到 12%]。所以這將永遠是我們的重點。

And we're going to maintain the flexibility. Like I said, I'm pretty bullish about the international environment, and that's going to generate the large lion's share of our ASM growth this year. And I expect International to be strong all the way through the end of October. And so far, it shoes that. It's still early, obviously, when we look at that far, but we're very optimistic.

我們將保持靈活性。就像我說的，我非常看好國際環境，這將在我們今年的 ASM 增長中佔據最大份額。我希望國際隊在 10 月底之前一直表現強勁。到目前為止，它是這樣的。顯然，當我們遠觀時還為時過早，但我們非常樂觀。

And domestically, Gerry set us up at a really good fleet plan where we have a significant number of older A320 and A319 aircraft that we could easily fly less or we could put on the ground if we thought that was necessary as we solve to reach the right margin and right EPS targets that we have for the year.

在國內，格里為我們制定了一個非常好的機隊計劃，我們有大量的老式 A320 和 A319 飛機，我們可以輕鬆地減少飛行，或者如果我們認為有必要，我們可以將其停飛，因為我們解決了達到我們今年的正確利潤率和正確的 EPS 目標。

The next question comes from Helane Becker from Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

Two questions. One, did you say what pension contribution would be this year? And if not, could you?

兩個問題。第一，你說今年的養老金繳款是多少？如果不能，你可以嗎？

And then the other question I had was just on United Next and where you are in '23 versus the plan? And what progress is on maybe some of the bigger items. I think you just addressed Andrew, the regional jet and the narrow-body shift in mix, but maybe connecting smaller cities or connecting bank changes or something like that?

然後我遇到的另一個問題是關於 United Next 以及你在 23 年與計劃相比的位置？一些更大的項目可能取得了哪些進展。我想你剛剛談到了安德魯、支線噴氣式飛機和窄體飛機的組合，但也許是連接較小的城市或連接銀行變更或類似的東西？

Helane, yes, we did not say anything about pension. Nothing's changed from our recent disclosures. There is -- we expect no pension contributions this year. Our pensions are in good shape and both with the pension calculations that can be made and interest rates having nicely reduced the liabilities. We wouldn't expect any pension contributions actually for a couple of years.

Helane，是的，我們沒有談及養老金。我們最近披露的內容沒有任何變化。有——我們預計今年不會繳納養老金。我們的養老金狀況良好，可以進行養老金計算，利率也很好地減少了負債。我們預計幾年內不會實際繳納任何養老金。

That's great to know.

很高興知道。

On the United Next comment, as I've indicated a bit earlier, my #1 focus domestically is this connectivity issue. We can clearly see it when we look at our RASM by flight by market that we are just -- we're missing a lot of connectivity relative to where we were. And so as we go forward, we're going to be very focused on rebuilding that connectivity and getting the bank sizes back to where they were, hopefully, in 2019, but it is going to take some time. But we're optimistic just like we did it in 2017 and 2018 that we're going to do it again, and it's going to be very accretive to margin profitability and, of course, to RASM as we build back the connectivity. So it is a really important focus of our domestic flying, and we're ready to get that implemented as soon as possible.

關於 United Next 的評論，正如我之前指出的那樣，我在國內的第一關注點是這個連通性問題。當我們按市場航班查看我們的 RASM 時，我們可以清楚地看到它——我們缺少了很多與我們所在位置相關的連接。因此，在我們前進的過程中，我們將非常專注於重建這種連接，並希望在 2019 年讓銀行規模恢復到原來的水平，但這需要一些時間。但我們很樂觀，就像我們在 2017 年和 2018 年所做的那樣，我們將再次這樣做，這將極大地增加利潤率，當然，隨著我們重建連接性，也會增加 RASM。所以這是我們國內飛行的一個非常重要的重點，我們準備盡快實施。

The next question comes from Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

I think despite the kind of tough macro outlook, pretty clear what you guys are expecting that things are fine for now, but there's high probability of a tail risk event. Can you help us with kind of what data points you're looking at to determine if these tail risks are either receding or materializing? Are these kind of airline specific data points or these broader macro data points into the latter kind of -- where are some of those data points you're tracking?

我認為儘管宏觀前景嚴峻，但很清楚你們對目前情況還不錯的預期，但尾部風險事件的可能性很高。您能否幫助我們提供您正在查看的數據點，以確定這些尾部風險是正在消退還是正在實現？這些特定於航空公司的數據點或這些更廣泛的宏觀數據點是否屬於後一種 - 您正在跟踪的一些數據點在哪裡？

Well, maybe I'll start and talk about it from a business traffic recovery and what we're seeing in there because I do think one of the most common questions I get is business traffic recovering and what is it going to look like. And first of all, I wonder whether the old methods of measuring business travel will be the same in the future. But for now, it's all we really have to really benchmark against 2019.

好吧，也許我會從業務流量恢復和我們在那裡看到的內容開始談論它，因為我確實認為我得到的最常見的問題之一是業務流量恢復以及它會是什麼樣子。首先，我想知道衡量商務旅行的舊方法在未來是否會一樣。但就目前而言，這就是我們真正需要對 2019 年進行基準測試的全部內容。

I will say that as we look at business traffic 3 different ways. The first is from larger corporations that have a contract with United. The second from a set of demands from agencies that specialize in business traffic, and the third is based on ticket attributes. The third is clearly the most encompassing view as it includes small and medium-sized businesses that don't have an agency or don't have a contract for United.

當我們以 3 種不同的方式看待業務流量時，我會這麼說。第一個來自與美聯航有合同的大公司。第二個來自專門從事業務流量的機構的一組需求，第三個基於票證屬性。第三個顯然是最具包容性的觀點，因為它包括沒有代理機構或沒有與美聯航簽訂合同的中小型企業。

So in Q4, the revenue recovery rate was between 70% and 85% for these 3 categories. In Q1, the revenue recovery rate for these 3 measurements range from 85% to 97%. And for the first 2 weeks of April, the recovery ranged from 95% to 101%. I think this data in the last 2 weeks of April was a surprise to us as we've seen more conservative measurements, start to approach 100%. The fact that large corporations are getting close to 100%, is a nice tailwind to United. As many of you know, this is critically important -- critically important component to our revenues.

所以在第四季度，這三個品類的收入回收率在 70% 到 85% 之間。在第一季度，這 3 個測量的收入回收率在 85% 到 97% 之間。而在 4 月的前兩週，恢復率在 95% 到 101% 之間。我認為 4 月最後兩週的數據令我們感到意外，因為我們看到了更保守的測量值，開始接近 100%。大公司接近 100% 的事實對曼聯來說是一個很好的順風。正如你們許多人所知，這是至關重要的——對我們的收入至關重要的組成部分。

I'll also say that the recovery in global long-haul business is a few points of head of domestic. And all these measurements are just a good sign that our planned international revenue increases, our capacity increases are moving in the right direction.

我還要說全球遠程業務的複蘇是國內負責人的幾點。所有這些測量都只是一個好兆頭，表明我們計劃的國際收入增加，我們的產能增加正朝著正確的方向發展。

We obviously need more time to see if this trend will hold. But what I can tell you in the last week or so after reviewing this data become a lot more positive even as many of the headlines continue to predict a recession. As I said in my opening statement, the trends for May look ahead of March. I can also confirm in absolute dollars the last 14 days have been the best booking days for business traffic revenue that we've seen since the pandemic.

我們顯然需要更多時間來觀察這種趨勢是否會持續下去。但在回顧這些數據後，我在上週左右可以告訴你的事情變得更加積極，儘管許多頭條新聞繼續預測經濟衰退。正如我在開場白中所說，五月的趨勢展望了三月。我還可以用絕對美元確認過去 14 天是自大流行以來我們看到的業務流量收入最好的預訂日。

I'll also add, since this step-up in business demand is very recent, we've not incorporated it into our revenue outlook for the quarter.

我還要補充一點，由於業務需求的增加是最近才發生的，我們沒有將其納入本季度的收入展望。

That's incredibly helpful. And since my follow-up question was going to be about SMB versus enterprise corporate. I'll switch it up and ask you about the cargo business. Obviously, a small portion of the business would probably very volatile given that there was one of the bigger kind of pandemic era winners. How are you seeing that evolve through '23 and '24? And what's the normalized level there?

這非常有幫助。因為我的後續問題將是關於 SMB 與企業公司的。我會把它調高，問你關於貨運業務的事。顯然，鑑於有一個更大的流行病時代贏家，一小部分業務可能會非常不穩定。您如何看待 23 年和 24 年的發展？那裡的標準化水平是多少？

Yes. So I mean cargo stepped down in Q1 and stepped down exactly with our plan, still well ahead of 2019, which is nice to see. But we are seeing very low prices, low yields across the system, particularly outside of United. We've been -- I think we've done a great job with holding yields where they're at through our -- really the best cargo team in the world, in my opinion. But not only is air freight challenges now, but also sea freight where rates are incredibly low.

是的。所以我的意思是貨運在第一季度減少並完全按照我們的計劃減少，仍然遠遠領先於 2019 年，這是很高興看到的。但我們看到整個系統的價格非常低，收益率也很低，尤其是在美聯航之外。在我看來，我們一直 - 我認為我們在通過我們 - 確實是世界上最好的貨運團隊保持收益率方面做得很好。但現在不僅空運面臨挑戰，而且海運費率低得令人難以置信。

So we're holding our own. I think again, we're executing consistent with our plan, and we've got this baked in for the rest of the year. We do expect to see more and more pressure on cargo yields going forward. But in the United team is executing in an amazing way. Our relative size to our primary competitors, you can see it in the numbers. And so I'm still actually bullish about the business relative to 2019. But look, it's last Q1 in particular, we reached an unbelievable high based on where we were with the pandemic and COVID we didn't expect we would be able to reachieve that number, and we didn't. But again, we're on plan.

所以我們堅持自己的立場。我再次思考，我們正在按照我們的計劃執行，並且我們已經在今年餘下的時間裡完成了這項工作。我們確實預計未來貨運收益率將面臨越來越大的壓力。但在曼聯，球隊的執行力令人驚嘆。我們與主要競爭對手的相對規模，您可以從數字中看出。因此，我實際上仍然看好與 2019 年相關的業務。但是看，尤其是在上一季度，我們達到了令人難以置信的高點，這是基於我們在大流行和 COVID 方面的表現，我們沒想到我們能夠達到那個數字，而我們沒有。但同樣，我們在計劃中。

The next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Scott, I wanted to ask you maybe a [cost] question. You've been fairly outspoken about airlines needing more employees for the same level of operations. And your ASMs per employee are now just 3% below 2019 versus 6% to 7% in the second half of '22. And presumably, there's some advanced hiring as you're preparing for new aircraft. Is there room to further close the gap versus 2019 on this basis as we think about ASM mix and new aircraft deliveries?

斯科特，我想問你一個 [成本] 問題。您一直直言不諱地表示航空公司需要更多員工來實現相同水平的運營。現在每個員工的 ASM 僅比 2019 年低 3%，而 22 世紀下半年為 6% 至 7%。據推測，在您準備購買新飛機時，會進行一些高級招聘。當我們考慮 ASM 組合和新飛機交付時，是否有空間在此基礎上進一步縮小與 2019 年的差距？

Well, I guess we'll see. But I feel really good about what we've done with running with higher resources than we did pre-pandemic, it's leading to the best operation that any one of the countries run the best operation, frankly, that we've ever run. That's great for our customers. That's great for our brand.

好吧，我想我們會看到的。但我對我們用比大流行前更多的資源運行所做的事情感到非常滿意，這導致了任何一個國家運行最好的運行，坦率地說，這是我們運行過的最好的運行。這對我們的客戶來說很棒。這對我們的品牌來說很棒。

I also think it's turning out at least right now in this environment to be the lowest CASM outcome that by being able to run a reliable operation, the most expensive thing to do is cancel the flight and being able to run a reliable operation is what is giving us the best CASM results in the industry and given us confidence about CASM results going forward.

我還認為，至少現在在這種環境下，它是最低的 CASM 結果，通過能夠運行可靠的操作，最昂貴的事情就是取消航班並且能夠運行可靠的操作是什麼為我們提供了業內最好的 CASM 結果，並讓我們對未來的 CASM 結果充滿信心。

So I think we're at the right place at the moment. It's obviously very -- if the operating environment gets easier down the road, it's obviously easy to adjust that, especially as we're growing just slow down the hiring for a month or 2 and you're right back to where you were.

所以我認為我們現在來對地方了。這顯然非常 - 如果運營環境在未來變得更容易，那麼調整它顯然很容易，特別是當我們正在增長時，只需將招聘速度放慢一兩個月，你就會回到原來的狀態。

So easy to adjust but I feel -- I'm really proud of how the team has done operationally. And I think it has been the lowest CASM outcome we could have had by running reliable operations.

調整起來很容易，但我覺得——我真的為團隊的運營方式感到自豪。而且我認為這是我們通過運行可靠的操作可以獲得的最低 CASM 結果。

And if I could just ask a question about your premium performance, which was pretty good. Premium relative to 2019, up 25% compared to total domestic up 5%. Can you break that out in any sort of way, whether it's RASM or yield performance? How we should think about the continued growth there?

如果我可以問一個關於你的出色表現的問題，那已經很不錯了。保費相對於 2019 年增長 25%，而國內總保費增長 5%。你能以任何方式打破它，無論是 RASM 還是收益表現？我們應該如何看待那裡的持續增長？

Sure. I mean, I've been really happy actually with our progress on the premium side in all of our cabins, particularly for Polaris. We've been just making a ton of progress in the Polaris Cabin given the rebound in business traffic, but we still have more to come.

當然。我的意思是，我真的很高興我們在所有客艙的高端方面取得的進展，尤其是北極星。鑑於業務流量的反彈，我們在 Polaris Cabin 方面取得了很大進展，但我們還有更多的工作要做。

In March, for example, our load factor was up 10 points year-over-year and 5 points versus 2019. We sold a lot of seats, but we sold business travel seats accounted for 7 points down year-over-year. And premium leisure comp traffic compensated for that by being up 7 points. So it just to offset it, but that came at a lower yield.

例如，3 月份，我們的載客率同比上升 10 個百分點，與 2019 年相比上升 5 個百分點。我們售出了很多座位，但我們售出的商務旅行座位同比下降了 7 個百分點。優質休閒類流量上升了 7 點，彌補了這一點。所以它只是為了抵消它，但收益較低。

So we're carefully also trying to keep increased premium leisure demand and revenue created since the pandemic while accommodating more and more of traditional business traffic. There are lots of puts and takes with this given our load factors, but we do think that there's potential to get this done, particularly as we continue to integrate the new 737s, which come into our fleet with a large amount of premium seating most of our growth is tilted towards premium seating at this point, particularly as we retire the single class regional jets from the network. And so I will say that I think we're just hitting on all cylinders on this front and the progress we're seeing in Polaris in particular, with higher load factors, backfilling temporarily lease or premium leisure. And ultimately, as long-haul business traffic, as I said earlier, it's coming back, faster, we were optimistic that we're going to get Polaris completely back to where it was in terms of relative profitability margin later this year.

因此，我們也在努力保持自大流行以來增加的高端休閒需求和收入，同時容納越來越多的傳統商業流量。考慮到我們的載客率，這有很多考慮因素，但我們確實認為有可能完成這項工作，特別是當我們繼續整合新的 737 時，這些飛機進入我們的機隊時大部分時間都有大量高級座位在這一點上，我們的增長傾向於高端座位，特別是當我們從網絡中淘汰單級支線噴氣機時。所以我要說的是，我認為我們只是在這方面全力以赴，尤其是我們在北極星看到的進展，負載率更高，回填臨時租賃或高級休閒。最終，正如我之前所說，作為長途業務流量，它會更快地恢復，我們樂觀地認為，我們將使北極星在今年晚些時候完全恢復到相對利潤率的水平。

The next question comes from Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

So when I look at domestic capacity for the second quarter, it's back below 2019 levels. It's only up marginally from Q1, which is a lot less than normal. I guess, is this that -- when you go back to the plan from the beginning of the year, is this a change in how you're thinking about domestic capacity? Is this a sort of a one-off quarter? Or is this more of a multi-quarter, more prolonged view of domestic capacity?

因此，當我查看第二季度的國內產能時，它又回到了 2019 年的水平以下。它僅比第一季度略有上升，遠低於正常水平。我想，這就是 - 當你從年初回到計劃時，這是否改變了你對國內產能的看法？這是一種一次性的季度嗎？或者這更像是對國內產能的多季度、更長期的看法？

I do think it is a little bit lower than Q1. I think you're absolutely correct on that. It's where the numbers shook out. We clearly leaned as hard as quickly as we could into global long haul, which really turns on in March and April, and that's what shook out for domestic because we thought that was the best place to put the capacity but you should see a little bit more domestic ASM growth in the second half than what we're seeing in the second quarter.

我確實認為它比 Q1 低一點。我認為你在這一點上是絕對正確的。這就是數字震撼的地方。顯然，我們盡可能快地向全球長途航線傾斜，這在 3 月和 4 月真正開始，這對國內航線來說是震撼的，因為我們認為這是放置容量的最佳地點，但你應該看到一點下半年國內 ASM 增長超過我們在第二季度看到的增長。

Okay. And then I know it's early. You talked about next year, another focus on Mainline Gauge. Any early preliminary thoughts on how you're thinking about overall capacity growth in '24?

好的。然後我知道現在還早。你談到明年，另一個重點是 Mainline Gauge。關於您如何考慮 24 世紀整體產能增長的任何早期初步想法？

I don't think we're prepared to give our guidance for '24. We're excited to continue implementing United Next. And most importantly, for domestic, we were excited to make sure that we rebuild the connectivity as quickly as we can back to where we were pre-pandemic. And I think that's our biggest driver of domestic RASM next year. And that's really all I can say at this point.

我認為我們不准備為 24 年提供指導。我們很高興繼續實施 United Next。最重要的是，對於國內，我們很高興能夠確保我們盡快重建連接，回到大流行前的狀態。我認為這是我們明年國內 RASM 的最大推動力。這就是我現在能說的全部。

The next question comes from David Vernon from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的大衛弗農。

Two questions for you guys on the new seasonality. Andrew, can you maybe talk a little bit more about some of the short-term challenges and opportunities you're dealing with from a revenue management perspective, things like overbooking and how you're sort of managing yields with this sort of shift in customer behavior, which seems relatively new?

關於新的季節性問題，請問你們兩個問題。安德魯，你能否從收入管理的角度多談談你正在處理的一些短期挑戰和機遇，比如超額預訂以及你如何通過這種客戶轉變來管理收益行為，這似乎比較新？

And then, Scott, I'd love to get your long-term perspective on what do you think United might need to do a little bit differently if we're going to be relying more on the leisure market, things like do you still get the same bang for the buck out of like a Polaris Lounge, for example, if this shift continues longer term?

然後，斯科特，我很想听聽你的長期看法，如果我們要更多地依賴休閒市場，你認為曼聯可能需要做些不同的事情，比如你仍然會得到什麼例如，如果這種轉變長期持續下去，是否會像 Polaris Lounge 一樣物超所值？

Sure. What I would say is the booking curves have adjusted. They're both international and domestic are booking further out. International more extreme than domestic. And so we are -- our RM systems have adjusted for this very, very quickly, and we're booked ahead in our global long-haul system based on the change in the booking curve.

當然。我要說的是預訂曲線已經調整。他們在國際和國內都在預訂更遠的地方。國際比國內更極端。所以我們 - 我們的 RM 系統已經非常非常迅速地對此進行了調整，並且根據預訂曲線的變化，我們在全球長途系統中提前預訂。

Domestic has also moved out. There's, I think, 4 points greater outside of 21 days and there is inside of 21 days right now. And again, RM systems have adjusted for that. That being said, we are managing to keep yield domestically as close as possible to where we were last year. And as we look at this, we expect we're going to run lower load factors in our domestic entity in Q2 as a result. That's part of our plan. We think it's the right strategy. And we do think we'll be able to fill up some of these seats were closer in higher yield in business.

國內也搬出去了。我認為，在 21 天之外多了 4 個點，現在在 21 天之內。再一次，RM 系統已經對此進行了調整。話雖這麼說，我們正在設法使國內收益率盡可能接近去年的水平。當我們看到這一點時，我們預計我們將在第二季度在我們的國內實體中運行較低的負載係數。這是我們計劃的一部分。我們認為這是正確的策略。而且我們確實認為我們能夠填補其中一些席位，因為業務收益率更高。

And the fact that business has had significant recent recovery in the last 2 weeks makes me even more bullish that we've executed the right strategy there and that we do have capacity available to accommodate closer in business demand to the extent it materializes in Q2.

事實上，過去 2 周業務最近出現了顯著復甦，這讓我更加樂觀地認為，我們在那裡執行了正確的戰略，並且我們確實有能力滿足更緊密的業務需求，使其在第二季度實現。

And on the longer term, it's an interesting question. First, I mean I wouldn't conclude that business -- we'll see what happens with business demand. In the near term, though, the most obvious things we can do are the things that are happening in revenue management. Andrew talked about, we have the best revenue management system and team in the industry. That is true. We made huge investments coming into the pandemic included it during the pandemic. And the team it's just really like none of these things, they're generally not that surprising. We didn't really appreciate fully the seasonality shift, but the revenue management system is working well. And that's one of the obvious places Andrew talked also about pivoting the network. It's another one that straightforward things to do, fly more to Florida, fly more leisure destinations.

從長遠來看，這是一個有趣的問題。首先，我的意思是我不會得出結論——我們將看看業務需求會發生什麼。不過，在短期內，我們能做的最明顯的事情就是收益管理中正在發生的事情。安德魯談到，我們擁有業內最好的收益管理系統和團隊。那是真實的。我們在大流行期間進行了大量投資，包括在大流行期間。而團隊真的不像這些東西，他們通常並不那麼令人驚訝。我們並沒有真正完全理解季節性變化，但收入管理系統運作良好。這也是 Andrew 還談到了轉向網絡的明顯地方之一。這是另一種直截了當的事情，飛更多的佛羅里達州，飛更多的休閒目的地。

In terms of things like Polaris Class, Andrew also talked about the fact that while we have less business traffic flying internationally, we have a lot more premium leisure. So I wouldn't anticipate, at least in the near term, any radical shifts in the strategy and mostly probably come in terms of capacity deployment, more than anything which one could be to have a fungible assets. Is that relatively easy for us to do.

關於 Polaris Class 之類的事情，Andrew 還談到了這樣一個事實，即雖然我們的國際商務航班較少，但我們有更多的優質休閒服務。因此，我預計，至少在短期內，戰略不會發生任何根本性轉變，而且很可能會出現在產能部署方面，而不是擁有可替代資產的任何事情。這對我們來說相對容易嗎？

We will now switch to the media portion of the call. (Operator Instructions) The first question comes from [Claire Buchi].

我們現在將切換到通話的媒體部分。 （操作員說明）第一個問題來自[Claire Buchi]。

I wanted to ask about summer operations. You mentioned cutting flights in New York earlier in the call. I wanted to ask about what other operational changes United is making this summer to avoid a repeat of the disruptions of last summer?

我想問一下夏季行動。你早些時候在電話中提到了削減紐約的航班。我想問一下，為了避免重蹈去年夏天的覆轍，美聯航今年夏天還進行了哪些運營方面的調整？

Claire, this is Toby. Well, we've done a lot. Let's talk about Newark and New York first. So we work with FAA. FAA gave us a waiver for the summer. So we are down about 30 flights per day in Newark and at a peak times that's going to make a big difference. Also, like Andrew said, we are not the only one. So for the first time in a long while in New York, we actually will be scheduled to on a blue sky day, at least what the capacity of the airport can actually hold. So we're really bullish on that.

克萊爾，這是托比。嗯，我們已經做了很多。先說紐瓦克和紐約。所以我們與美國聯邦航空局合作。美國聯邦航空局給了我們夏天的豁免。因此，我們在紐瓦克每天減少約 30 個航班，而在高峰時段，這將產生重大影響。另外，正如安德魯所說，我們不是唯一的。因此，在紐約很長一段時間以來，我們實際上將被安排在藍天，至少機場的實際容量是多少。所以我們真的很看好這一點。

And on top of that, and Andrew mentioned this in his remarks as well, we're actually going to have 17 new normal mainline gates in the brand-new Terminal A in Newark. And if you guys haven't been there, it's a fantastic terminal. I mean it's a world-class terminal replacing a 1969 (inaudible) terminal that we were in last year. So just right off the bat right there, that's going to be a huge improvement.

最重要的是，安德魯在他的發言中也提到了這一點，我們實際上將在紐瓦克全新的 A 航站樓中擁有 17 個新的正常主線登機口。如果你們還沒有去過那裡，那將是一個很棒的終端。我的意思是，這是一個世界級的航站樓，取代了我們去年使用的 1969 年（聽不清）航站樓。因此，就在那兒，這將是一個巨大的進步。

The other thing -- again, United actually did, if you guys remember, we actually did pretty well last year, last summer. I think the biggest issues we had was actually the infrastructure, especially in the trans-Atlantic. And now actually, we're just in Europe 2 weeks ago and talked to our biggest Air Force, the Heathrow, Frankfurt and Munich. And they are 1 year ahead of all the hiring and all the other things there. So again, it's summer, it's peaked up. It's not going to be perfect, but we are in a much, much, much better place than we were last year and we [released a job] . I mean all the terminals in Europe is actually open this year. We had large turf terminals in Europe last year, both in Amsterdam and Heathrow and others that (inaudible) even open, and they are wide open and open for business this year.

另一件事——再一次，曼聯真的做到了，如果你們還記得的話，我們去年，去年夏天確實做得很好。我認為我們遇到的最大問題實際上是基礎設施，尤其是在跨大西洋地區。現在實際上，兩週前我們剛剛在歐洲，並與我們最大的空軍、希思羅機場、法蘭克福機場和慕尼黑機場進行了交談。他們比所有招聘和那裡的所有其他事情提前一年。所以又到了夏天，它達到了頂峰。這不會是完美的，但我們的處境比去年好得多，而且我們 [發布了一份工作]。我的意思是今年歐洲的所有航站樓實際上都已開放。去年，我們在歐洲擁有大型草坪碼頭，包括阿姆斯特丹和希思羅機場以及其他（聽不清）甚至開放的碼頭，今年它們將全面開放並開展業務。

So we're -- again, we're -- we call it summer readiness. We are not taking it lightly. Summer is our Super Bowl, is the toughest time to operate. It's going to have some tough pace surely with weather and things, but we're going to be in a much, much better place than we were last year.

所以我們——再次，我們——我們稱之為夏季準備。我們不會掉以輕心。夏天是我們的超級碗，是經營最艱難的時候。由於天氣和其他因素，它肯定會有一些艱難的步伐，但我們將處於一個比去年好得多的地方。

I just -- Delta said that they were flying less than they had expected. They were trying to reduce the turnaround time for maintenance on aircraft. Is there just any of that detail that you can share with us?

我只是——達美航空說他們的飛行時間比他們預期的要少。他們試圖減少飛機維修的周轉時間。您能與我們分享其中的任何細節嗎？

Well, I would just -- I'll take that, too. We've already done that. So when we talk about we're not building our own like it's 2019, we built those buffers in prospectively and in advance. And that's why we ran the best operation in the country because we were ahead of the curve. And perhaps others are catching up to that, but we were ahead of that curve, and that's what led to the best operation in the country in the first quarter.

好吧，我會 - 我也會接受。我們已經做到了。因此，當我們談論我們不會像 2019 年那樣建立自己的緩衝區時，我們會前瞻性地提前建立這些緩衝區。這就是為什麼我們在國內經營最好的業務，因為我們走在了曲線的前面。也許其他人正在迎頭趕上，但我們走在了這條曲線的前面，這就是導致第一季度該國最佳運營的原因。

Our next question comes from Leslie Josephs.

我們的下一個問題來自 Leslie Josephs。

Just curious on the retrofits, how many of those do you expect to get this year and how many were you expecting before? And what was the outlook for 2024?

只是對改造感到好奇，您希望今年獲得多少改造，之前有多少？ 2024 年的前景如何？

And then it's been almost 7 years since you've launched Polaris. And just curious if you are and how are you thinking about kind of the successor to that?

自您推出 Polaris 以來已經快 7 年了。只是好奇您是否以及您如何考慮它的繼任者？

Okay. That's a good question, and I will not answer the latter question other than the teams are always working on innovations at United across all of our business functions. And I'm sure somebody somewhere is working on something great when it comes to seats and we'll leave it at that.

好的。這是一個很好的問題，我不會回答後一個問題，除非團隊一直致力於在我們所有業務職能部門進行創新。而且我敢肯定有人在某個地方正在做一些很棒的事情，當涉及到座位時，我們會把它留在那裡。

In regards to retrofits, and I don't have the numbers here. We'll have somebody call you back. But the reality is the supply challenges across the board whether it be IFE systems, chips, seats and many other things are just more challenging than they've ever been in our business. And while we converted our first A319 in a few weeks, it should be flying hopefully, any day now in the new interior, and we have multiple lines that we'll be doing this summer. So you'll see a rapid increase in the number of aircraft with the signature interior through retrofits and through new aircraft. The total time to convert all the aircraft is just going to be longer than we expected, unfortunately. Probably by a year or 2, to be frank. So we will get there. It will just take a little bit longer than we had originally intended. But you'll see material progress. We'll get some of the numbers out to you separately. By the end of this year.

關於改造，我這裡沒有數字。我們會有人給你回電話。但現實是，無論是 IFE 系統、芯片、座椅還是許多其他東西，全面的供應挑戰都比我們業務中以往任何時候都更具挑戰性。雖然我們在幾週內改裝了我們的第一架 A319，但它應該充滿希望地飛行，現在任何一天在新的內飾中，我們將在今年夏天進行多條生產線。因此，通過改裝和新飛機，您會看到具有標誌性內飾的飛機數量迅速增加。不幸的是，改裝所有飛機的總時間將比我們預期的要長。坦率地說，大概一兩年。所以我們會到達那裡。它只需要比我們原先預期的時間長一點。但是你會看到物質進步。我們將分別向您提供一些數字。到今年年底。

And do you expect that to hurt your revenue premium at all for people that are booking up or choosing United because it has those features?

對於那些預訂或選擇美聯航的人來說，你是否認為這會損害你的收入溢價，因為它具有這些功能？

No, what I would tell you is that the increase amount of getting on an aircraft, the United Signature Interior is going to go up rapidly. It's just the tail of this is going to take a little longer to get done. So our investment in our brand and our products and our services and how we're differentiating ourselves from our competitors. I think our customers already see it. And they're going to see it a lot more in the coming quarters. It's going to be a little bit slower than we had hoped, but I know people are noticing it already. We can see the NPS scores on these converted aircraft are definitely the new aircraft and we're excited to get it done as quickly as we possibly can.

不，我要告訴你的是，乘坐飛機的人數增加，United Signature Interior 將迅速上升。只是尾巴需要更長的時間才能完成。因此，我們對品牌、產品和服務的投資，以及我們如何從競爭對手中脫穎而出。我想我們的客戶已經看到了。他們將在未來幾個季度看到更多。它會比我們希望的慢一點，但我知道人們已經註意到了。我們可以看到這些改裝飛機的 NPS 分數絕對是新飛機，我們很高興能盡快完成它。

The next question comes from Alison Sider.

下一個問題來自 Alison Sider。

Yes, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about anything that United might be doing kind of in the wake of the handful of mirror collisions that the industry has been seeing. Are there any particular steps that you're taking to respond to that? Or like do you have any theories about what's been going on?

是的，我想知道你是否可以談談在業界已經看到的少數鏡子碰撞之後，聯合航空可能正在做的事情。您是否正在採取任何特定步驟來對此做出回應？或者你對正在發生的事情有什麼理論嗎？

So I'm proud of the whole aviation industry for the level of safety that we have, which is at least an order of magnitude higher than any others appropriately so. And when aviation professionals talk about safety is our #1 priority that is something that's deeply embedded in the DNA and everyone, not just at United, but across the industry. United Airlines, in particular, is at the tip top of that pyramid in terms of safety.

因此，我為整個航空業的安全水平感到自豪，我們的安全水平至少比其他任何行業高出一個數量級。當航空專業人士談論安全是我們的第一要務時，這是深深植根於 DNA 和每個人的東西，不僅在美聯航，而且在整個行業。尤其是美國聯合航空公司，在安全方面處於金字塔的頂端。

Our team, I think, is doing a really good job of saying in today's environment, where you're coming back out of COVID, and there's new people working in airports or new air traffic controllers or whatever it is and increasing the amount of training, the time and training, quality of training. We're spending more money and a lot more time and resources there. And in fact, we put a Vice President, a guy named Mark Champion, who's been a champion for safety for his entire career into a new role where he is exclusively responsible for safety and quality of training for our aviators.

我認為，我們的團隊在今天的環境中做得非常好，你從 COVID 中恢復過來，有新的人在機場工作或有新的空中交通管制員或其他任何東西，並增加了培訓量，時間和培訓，培訓質量。我們在那里花費了更多的錢、更多的時間和資源。事實上，我們任命了一位副總裁，一個名叫 Mark Champion 的人，他在整個職業生涯中一直是安全冠軍，他擔任新職務，專門負責我們飛行員的安全和培訓質量。

And I think we're leading on that and continuing to push to make the system what is already the safest system in the world even stronger, and I feel good about the path we're on and Mark being charged with that responsibility and having really as many resources as he needed to the one person that doesn't have to live to his budget because he can do whatever he needs to do to make sure that we keep this (inaudible) as we've always been.

我認為我們在這方面處於領先地位，並繼續努力使這個已經是世界上最安全的系統變得更加強大，我對我們所走的道路感到滿意，馬克被賦予了這一責任，並且真的一個人不需要多少資源就可以滿足他的預算，因為他可以做任何他需要做的事情來確保我們一如既往地保持這一點（聽不清）。

So when you look in some of your own data, like do you see any kind of trend or any sort of connection between sort of the newness of people and incidents or potential incidents or anything like that?

因此，當您查看自己的一些數據時，您是否看到了某種趨勢或某種新事物與事件或潛在事件或類似事件之間的任何联系？

Well, one of the great things about Aviation is we use and we share data. We have great safety systems where our own employees can report without repercussion. So that encourages reporting because it's been, I guess, well over a decade since there's been a fatal accident in the United States.

好吧，航空業的一大優點是我們使用並共享數據。我們有很好的安全系統，我們自己的員工可以在沒有影響的情況下報告。所以這鼓勵了報告，因為我猜，自從美國發生致命事故以來已經有十多年了。

What that means is we have to look for, say, that are close to the, out of tolerance, or out of tolerance to find it and sharing that data across the industry is a strength that I think is unique to aviation and what leads to our higher safety standards. So we have teams of people and our competitors have teams of people. And on this one, we don't compete. We share the data with each other on doing that. And they're always, always, always looking for no matter how good we get, what's the next place that we can get even better.

這意味著我們必須尋找，比如說，接近、超出容忍度或超出容忍度的東西來找到它，並在整個行業共享這些數據，這是我認為航空業獨有的一種力量，它會導致我們更高的安全標準。所以我們有團隊，我們的競爭對手也有團隊。在這一點上，我們不競爭。我們在這樣做時彼此共享數據。他們總是，總是，總是在尋找，無論我們做得多好，下一個我們可以變得更好的地方是什麼。

That process as well. It's continuing to work well. I think they have an even elevated sense of responsibility right now as we're coming out of COVID and feel great about where we're headed.

那個過程也是。它繼續運作良好。我認為，隨著我們從 COVID 中走出來，並且對我們的前進方向感覺良好，他們現在的責任感甚至更高。

I will now turn the call back over to Kristina Munoz for closing remarks.

我現在將把電話轉回給 Kristina Munoz 作結束語。

Thanks for joining the call today. Please contact Investor or Media Relations if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

感謝您今天加入電話會議。如果您有任何其他問題，請聯繫投資者或媒體關係部，我們期待下個季度與您交談。

Thank you all. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們。今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。