聯合航空 (UAL) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to United Airlines Holdings' Earnings Conference Call for the Second Quarter 2022. My name is Hilda, and I will be your conference facilitator today.

早上好，歡迎參加聯合航空控股公司 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。我叫希爾達，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

This call is being recorded and is copyrighted. Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed or rebroadcast without the company's permission. Your participation implies your consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line. I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Kristina Munoz, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

此通話正在錄音並受版權保護。請注意，未經公司許可，不得對通話的任何部分進行錄音、轉錄或轉播。您的參與意味著您同意我們對此次通話進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，只需下線即可。現在，我將把演示文稿交給今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係總監 Kristina Munoz。請繼續。

Thank you, Hilda. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our website at ir.united.com. Information in yesterday's release and the remarks made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, which represent the company's current expectations or beliefs concerning future events and financial performance.

謝謝你，希爾達。大家早上好，歡迎參加美聯航 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。昨天，我們發布了收益報告，可在我們的網站 ir.united.com 上查閱。昨天發布的信息和本次電話會議期間發表的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述代表了公司當前對未來事件和財務業績的預期或信念。

All forward-looking statements are based upon information currently available to the company. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release, Form 10-K and 10-Q and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於公司目前可獲得的信息。許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期大相徑庭。請參閱我們的收益發布、10-K 和 10-Q 表格以及聯合航空控股公司和聯合航空向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他報告，以更全面地描述這些因素。

Also, during the course of our call, we will discuss several non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings release. Joining us on the call today to discuss our results and outlook are Chief Executive Officer, Scott Kirby; President, Brett Hart; Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Toby Enqvist, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Gerry Laderman. In addition, we have other members of the executive team on the line and available to assist with Q&A. And with that, I'll hand it over to Scott.

此外，在我們的電話會議期間，我們將討論一些非公認會計原則的財務措施。有關這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬，請參閱我們收益發布末尾的表格。今天加入我們的電話會議討論我們的結果和前景的是首席執行官 Scott Kirby；布雷特·哈特總裁；執行副總裁兼首席運營官 Toby Enqvist，執行副總裁兼首席商務官 Andrew Nocella；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Gerry Laderman。此外，我們還有其他執行團隊成員在線，可以協助問答。有了這個，我會把它交給斯科特。

Thanks, Kristina, and good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining our call today. I'd like to start by thanking our employees for navigating an unprecedented return of customers this quarter as well as managing the challenges seen around the world in the infrastructure that supports global aviation.

謝謝，克里斯蒂娜，大家早上好，感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。首先，我要感謝我們的員工在本季度實現了前所未有的客戶回報，並管理了全球在支持全球航空的基礎設施方面面臨的挑戰。

It's great to return to profitability for the first time since the start of the pandemic. And despite the legitimate worries about rising fuel prices and the growing risk of a slowdown or recession, we expect continuing improvement in revenue, earnings and margin going forward.

自大流行開始以來首次恢復盈利真是太好了。儘管對燃料價格上漲以及經濟放緩或衰退風險增加的擔憂是合理的，但我們預計未來收入、收益和利潤率將繼續改善。

We're still short of our pre-pandemic margins, and we remain focused on first getting back to 2019 levels of profitability and then on achieving our 2023 and 2026 United Next adjusted pretax margin target.

我們仍然低於大流行前的利潤率，我們仍然專注於首先恢復到 2019 年的盈利水平，然後實現我們的 2023 年和 2026 年 United Next 調整後的稅前利潤率目標。

During 2Q, 3 storm clouds emerged that will drive the narrative around United and our industry for the next 6 to 18 months. And here at United, we're prepared for the risks they pose. First, we've seen industry-wide constraints that have created significant operational disruptions and impose constraints on the -- industries ability to grow; second, sharply elevated fuel prices; and third, the growing likelihood of an economic slowdown or recession.

在第二季度，出現了 3 朵烏雲，它們將在未來 6 到 18 個月內推動圍繞美聯航和我們行業的敘述。在曼聯，我們已經為他們帶來的風險做好了準備。首先，我們已經看到整個行業的限制因素造成了嚴重的運營中斷，並對行業的發展能力施加了限制；二是燃油價格大幅上漲；第三，經濟放緩或衰退的可能性越來越大。

First, to address the challenges posed by a commercial aviation ecosystem that is straining to handle the number of planes operating today, we've elected to keep United Airlines smaller and overstaffed in order to give us more buffer against these external constraints that we just can't control.

首先，為了應對商業航空生態系統所帶來的挑戰，該生態系統正在緊張地處理當今運營的飛機數量，我們選擇讓聯合航空公司變得更小和人滿為患，以便為我們提供更多緩衝來應對這些我們可以做到的外部限制控制不了。

We'll also continue to prioritize reliability by overstaffing until the entire aviation infrastructure returns to normal, but it means that there will be cost pressures until that catches up, and we can return to traditional utilization and staffing.

在整個航空基礎設施恢復正常之前，我們還將繼續通過人員過剩來優先考慮可靠性，但這意味著在趕上之前將會有成本壓力，我們可以恢復傳統的利用率和人員配置。

The second macro trend is, of course, fuel price. At current fuel prices, United's fuel bill would be $9 billion higher than 2019. For what it's worth, we're building our long-term plans, assuming that this is the new normal for fuel prices. The good news is that rising fuel costs are something that affects all airlines and at least for United, we've seen this largely become a pass-through event to date.

第二個宏觀趨勢當然是燃油價格。按照目前的燃油價格，美聯航的燃油費用將比 2019 年高出 90 億美元。無論如何，我們正在製定長期計劃，假設這是燃油價格的新常態。好消息是，燃油成本上漲影響到所有航空公司，至少對於美聯航而言，迄今為止，我們已經看到這在很大程度上已成為一種傳遞事件。

And finally, there's the question about what's going to happen with demand. We continue to see strong demand. And one thing that is unique for United, particularly, and aviation in general, is that we're still probably in the sixth or seventh inning of the COVID recovery.

最後，還有一個關於需求會發生什麼的問題。我們繼續看到強勁的需求。對於美聯航來說，特別是對整個航空業來說，獨特的一件事是，我們可能仍處於 COVID 復甦的第六或第七局。

So there are 2 macro demand trends, recession versus continuing COVID recovery working across purposes. And for now at least, the COVID recovery trend is at least canceling out and arguably exceeding the economic headwinds. So where does that leave us as we look to the future? Clearly, all 3 looming risks, industry infrastructure constraints, significantly higher fuel prices and an economic slowdown, biased toward reducing capacity over the next 6 to 18 months.

因此，有兩種宏觀需求趨勢，即經濟衰退與持續的 COVID 復甦跨目的發揮作用。至少就目前而言，COVID 的複蘇趨勢至少正在抵消，並且可以說超過了經濟逆風。那麼，當我們展望未來時，這會給我們帶來什麼？顯然，所有 3 種迫在眉睫的風險、行業基礎設施限制、燃料價格顯著上漲和經濟放緩，都傾向於在未來 6 至 18 個月內減少產能。

But the truth is 8% is about as much as we think it's physically possible for us to fly given the shortfall in regionals, reduction in long-haul Asia flying and aircraft delivery delays and other infrastructure constraints that are impacting all of aviation.

但事實是，鑑於支線航班的短缺、亞洲長途航班的減少和飛機交付延誤以及其他影響所有航空的基礎設施限制，8% 的機率大約是我們認為我們實際可以飛行的數量。

Perhaps what's most amazing about all this is despite 3 known storm clouds, however, we remain optimistic about the near and short term. You can see that our 3Q results are expected to continue to accelerate back towards 2019 margin. Lower stage length does lead to lower ASM growth in pressures CASM-ex. And Gerry will detail what that means shortly.

也許這一切最令人驚奇的是儘管有 3 種已知的暴風雲，但是，我們仍然對近期和短期持樂觀態度。您可以看到，我們的第三季度業績預計將繼續加速回到 2019 年的利潤率。較低的階段長度確實導致壓力 CASM-ex 中的 ASM 增長較低。格里很快會詳細說明這意味著什麼。

However, these same factors also lead to higher RASM. In order to hit our adjusted pretax margin of 9% next year, TRASM could decelerate by 8 points from current levels, and we'd still hit the target. That translates to about $11 per share in adjusted EPS.

然而，這些相同的因素也會導致更高的 RASM。為了在明年達到我們調整後的 9% 的稅前利潤率，TRASM 可能會從當前水平減速 8 個百分點，但我們仍然會達到目標。這相當於調整後每股收益約為 11 美元。

And that, perhaps, is the most important point. At United, we will do whatever it takes to hit our margin targets. We made a huge step up in 2Q, and we continue to get closer to 2019 levels here in 3Q. We believe utilization will return to normal and Boeing deliveries will get back on track, which are the keys to CASM-ex.

這也許是最重要的一點。在曼聯，我們將盡一切努力實現我們的利潤目標。我們在第二季度取得了巨大進步，我們在第三季度繼續接近 2019 年的水平。我們相信利用率將恢復正常，波音的交付將重回正軌，這是 CASM-ex 的關鍵。

But we're going to get to our pretax margin next year regardless. Thank you again to our employees for all they've done to help our customers during this busy summer travel season. It's been tough, but I'm encouraged to see the improvement in operating results and customer NPS so far in July. And with that, I'll turn it over to Brett.

但無論如何，我們明年都會達到我們的稅前利潤率。再次感謝我們的員工在這個繁忙的夏季旅行季節為幫助我們的客戶所做的一切。這很艱難，但我很高興看到 7 月份到目前為止的經營業績和客戶 NPS 有所改善。有了這個，我會把它交給布雷特。

Thank you, Scott. I want to start by thanking the entire United team for their hard work in the past few months. We are pleased to see how the recovery has taken hold and progress made in our international business as border and testing requirements began to loosen up.

謝謝你，斯科特。首先，我要感謝整個曼聯團隊在過去幾個月裡的辛勤工作。隨著邊境和測試要求開始放寬，我們很高興看到復蘇如何站穩腳跟並在我們的國際業務中取得進展。

As Scott mentioned, crew, weather and air traffic constraints have severely impacted the entire industry over the last few months. However, because of the United teams' unwavering hard work, we were able to return to 2019 levels of operational performance in the second quarter for most of our network with the exception of Newark.

正如斯科特所說，在過去的幾個月裡，機組人員、天氣和空中交通限制嚴重影響了整個行業。然而，由於曼聯團隊堅定不移的努力工作，我們能夠在第二季度恢復到 2019 年的運營績效水平，除紐瓦克外，我們的大部分網絡。

While June completion was the most challenging since 2019, our mainline operation was ranked #1 among legacy peers for the quarter. The good news is the biggest constraint we have seen at United congestion at Newark has improved. But we'll need to operate at lower utilization and higher staffing levels until the broader aviation infrastructure improves. United continues to collaborate with the U.S. Department of Transportation on the operational disruptions and challenges impacting the aviation industry and our customers.

雖然 6 月份的完工是自 2019 年以來最具挑戰性的一次，但我們的主線業務在本季度的傳統同行中排名第一。好消息是我們在紐瓦克的曼聯看到的最大限制已經改善。但在更廣泛的航空基礎設施得到改善之前，我們需要以更低的利用率和更高的人員配備水平運營。美聯航繼續與美國交通部合作，應對影響航空業和我們客戶的運營中斷和挑戰。

By having an active partnership with the government and FAA, we hope to address the main drivers of these challenges and find solutions together. We've seen early signs of progress and are grateful for the partnership and leadership the FAA has demonstrated.

通過與政府和 FAA 建立積極的合作夥伴關係，我們希望解決這些挑戰的主要驅動因素並共同尋找解決方案。我們已經看到了進展的早期跡象，並對 FAA 所展現的伙伴關係和領導能力表示感謝。

Late last month, we received waiver to proactively reduce our schedule in Newark to ease operational disruption for our customers. Also, our on-time departure performance at Newark has improved significantly, nearly 14 points month-over-month so far.

上個月末，我們獲得了主動減少在紐瓦克的日程安排以緩解客戶運營中斷的豁免。此外，我們在紐瓦克的準時出發表現也有了顯著改善，到目前為止環比提高了近 14 個百分點。

As we continue to manage the infrastructure challenges that face the aviation industry and the broader economy, we're strategically maintaining higher staffing levels and will need to operate at lower utilization. We continue to adjust our near-term capacity plan to fly the most reliable schedule we can.

隨著我們繼續應對航空業和更廣泛的經濟面臨的基礎設施挑戰，我們在戰略上保持更高的人員配備水平，並且需要以更低的利用率運營。我們將繼續調整我們的近期運力計劃，以盡可能以最可靠的時間表飛行。

Finally, we are hiring to support a larger operation so that our new United team members can receive proper classroom and on-job training in advance of when they are needed as we plan to grow schedule towards our long-term goals.

最後，我們正在招聘以支持更大的運營，以便我們的新聯合團隊成員能夠在需要時提前接受適當的課堂和在職培訓，因為我們計劃為我們的長期目標制定時間表。

The pilot shortage continues to impact broader airline industry. United remains dedicated to hiring at least 200 pilots a month, and with our international routes, wide-body aircraft and higher career -- and high career earning potential, we are confident United is the best place for pilots to build a career.

飛行員短缺繼續影響更廣泛的航空業。美聯航仍然致力於每月至少招聘 200 名飛行員，憑藉我們的國際航線、寬體飛機和更高的職業生涯 - 以及高職業收入潛力，我們相信美聯航是飛行員建立職業生涯的最佳場所。

In closing, I want to extend my most sincere gratitude to the entire team at United for their hard work this quarter. Our employees are truly the good that leads the way for our airline. And now I'd like to hand the call over to my colleague, friend and our new Chief Operating Officer, Toby Enqvist.

最後，我要對曼聯整個團隊在本季度的辛勤工作表示最誠摯的感謝。我們的員工確實是引領我們航空公司前進的好人。現在我想把這個電話轉給我的同事、朋友和我們的新首席運營官 Toby Enqvist。

Thank you, Brett, for that kind introduction. After working for this great airline for over 25 years, and most recently as a Chief Customer Officer, the thing that customers value the most have not changed. We need to get them to their destination safely and on time.

謝謝你，布雷特，這樣的介紹。在這家偉大的航空公司工作了超過 25 年，最近擔任首席客戶官之後，客戶最看重的事情並沒有改變。我們需要讓他們安全準時到達目的地。

Hence, running a reliable operation is critical to our success. And with the recent wave of industry-wide operational disruptions across the globe, it was the innovative tools, such as the ConnectionSaver and Agent on Demand from our team that helped moderate the stress, not only for our customers but for our employees as well. We will continue to eat to make data-driven decisions to improve efficiency and reliability of our operation in the future.

因此，運行可靠的操作對我們的成功至關重要。隨著最近全球範圍內全行業的運營中斷浪潮，正是我們團隊的 ConnectionSaver 和 Agent on Demand 等創新工具幫助緩解了壓力，不僅為我們的客戶，也為我們的員工。我們將繼續努力做出數據驅動的決策，以提高我們未來運營的效率和可靠性。

At United, we've been preparing for this bounce back in demand for some time. We were the only airline that signed a letter of agreement with our pilots in the fall of 2020 to ensure that when demand returns, and it has in a more meaningful way than we could have ever imagined, we'd be ready.

在曼聯，一段時間以來，我們一直在為這種需求反彈做準備。我們是唯一一家在 2020 年秋季與我們的飛行員簽署協議書的航空公司，以確保當需求恢復時，我們會以一種比我們想像的更有意義的方式做好準備。

For example, today, we have 10% more pilots available for block hour versus prior to the pandemic. Further, we broke ground on 12 new simulator bays to support the amount of pilots...

例如，今天，與大流行之前相比，我們有 10% 的可用於封鎖時間的飛行員。此外，我們在 12 個新的模擬器艙上破土動工，以支持飛行員的數量……

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Your conference will resume shortly. Please, stand by.

您的會議將很快恢復。請稍等。

Thank you, everyone. Sorry, we had some technical difficulties. We're going to start with Toby.

謝謝大家。抱歉，我們遇到了一些技術難題。我們將從托比開始。

Thank you, Brett, for the kind introduction. After working for this trait airline for over 25 years and mostly as the Chief Customer Officer, the thing our customers value to most has not changed. We need to get them through the destination safely and on time. And so running a reliable operation is critical to our success. And the recent wave of industry-wide operational disruption across the globe, it was the innovative tools, such as ConnectionSaver and Agent on Demand from our team that helped moderate the stress not only for our customers, but for our employees as well.

布雷特，謝謝你的友好介紹。在這家特色航空公司工作超過 25 年並主要擔任首席客戶官之後，我們的客戶最看重的事情並沒有改變。我們需要讓他們安全準時地通過目的地。因此，運行可靠的操作對我們的成功至關重要。而最近全球範圍內的全行業運營中斷浪潮，正是我們團隊提供的 ConnectionSaver 和 Agent on Demand 等創新工具幫助減輕了客戶和員工的壓力。

We will continue to innovate and make data-driven decisions to improve efficiency and reliability of our operations in the future. As to now, we've been prepared for this bounce back in demand for some time. We were the only airline that signed a letter of agreement with our pilots in the fall of 2020 to ensure that when demand returns, and it has in a more meaningful way than we could have ever imagined we'd be ready.

我們將繼續創新並做出數據驅動的決策，以提高我們未來運營的效率和可靠性。就目前而言，我們已經為這種需求反彈做好了一段時間的準備。我們是唯一一家在 2020 年秋季與我們的飛行員簽署協議書的航空公司，以確保當需求恢復時，它以一種比我們想像的更有意義的方式做好了準備。

For example, today, we have 10% more pilots available for block hours versus prior to the pandemic. Further, we broke ground on 12 new simulator bays for the amount of pilot training that we expect will be required in the near, medium and long term to meet our growth plan.

例如，今天，與大流行之前相比，我們有 10% 的飛行員可用於封鎖時間。此外，我們在 12 個新的模擬器艙上破土動工，我們預計近期、中期和長期將需要進行大量飛行員培訓，以滿足我們的增長計劃。

We also began actively addressing our infrastructure well before demand started to come back. During COVID focus on the big airport infrastructure projects to support in the future. We completed or broke ground on new projects at Newark, Chicago O'Hare, Houston and Denver.

在需求開始回升之前，我們也開始積極解決我們的基礎設施問題。在 COVID 期間，重點關注未來支持的大型機場基礎設施項目。我們在紐瓦克、芝加哥奧黑爾、休斯頓和丹佛完成或破土動工的新項目。

There are many other infrastructure constraints outside of our control, and we worked with those partners to get them returned to normal. Finally, July 4 weekend was our best completion in CD (inaudible) performance for that reason since 2017.

還有許多我們無法控制的其他基礎設施限制，我們與這些合作夥伴合作讓它們恢復正常。最後，由於這個原因，7 月 4 日週末是我們自 2017 年以來在 CD（聽不清）性能方面的最好成績。

In partnership with the FAA, our Newark operation is significantly improving this fun. As of July 15, we have seen a 78% reduction, which is the highest post-pandemic month in FAA capacity delay way, which means an additional 12,000 customers are on some each and every day. The delays on this market could impact the rest of our system.

通過與 FAA 合作，我們的紐瓦克業務正在顯著改善這種樂趣。截至 7 月 15 日，我們看到減少了 78%，這是大流行後 FAA 運力延遲方式中最高的一個月，這意味著每天都會增加 12,000 名客戶。這個市場的延遲可能會影響我們系統的其他部分。

I look forward to being even more ingrained in the day-to-day operating of this airlines. And hopefully by the next time I'm on this call, the operational challenge that our whole industry faces today will be the rear view mirror. I'll now pass it on to Andrew to discuss our great revenue results.

我期待在這家航空公司的日常運營中更加根深蒂固。希望下次我參加這個電話會議時，我們整個行業今天面臨的運營挑戰將是後視鏡。我現在將把它傳遞給 Andrew，討論我們出色的收入結果。

Thanks, Toby. I'm pleased to report revenues accelerated in the quarter versus Q1. TRASM finished 24% higher with capacity down 15% versus Q2 '19. Top line revenues for June of $4.6 billion were 12% or above our previous best month ever on 14% less capacity. Q2 leisure demand was exceptionally strong, and we successfully revenue managed our capacity, largely compensating for higher fuel costs and inflationary pressures.

謝謝，托比。我很高興地報告該季度的收入與第一季度相比有所加快。與 19 年第二季度相比，TRASM 完成了 24% 的增長，容量下降了 15%。 6 月份的收入為 46 億美元，比我們上一個有史以來最好的月份高出 12% 或以上，而產能減少了 14%。第二季度的休閒需求異常強勁，我們成功地管理了我們的產能，在很大程度上彌補了更高的燃料成本和通脹壓力。

Passenger yields were up 20%. Business demand continued to rebound into the quarter to 75% of 2Q '19 volume levels and 80% of revenues. Business demand continues to grow but the rate of progress has slowed in the last few weeks from the growth we saw early in the quarter.

乘客收益率上升了 20%。業務需求在本季度繼續反彈，達到 19 年第二季度銷量水平的 75% 和收入的 80%。業務需求繼續增長，但過去幾週的進展速度較本季度初看到的增長有所放緩。

With the economy potentially worsening and business travel recovery, something we'll be watching carefully. Cargo demand remained strong in Q2. Yields remained 107% above 2019 levels and total cargoed revenue was up 95% versus '19.

隨著經濟可能惡化和商務旅行複蘇，我們將密切關注。第二季度貨運需求依然強勁。產量仍比 2019 年水平高出 107%，總貨運收入與 19 年相比增長了 95%。

As we see, the industry pool back up to normal passenger schedules, we expect cargo yields will decline in the future months but remain solidly above 2019 levels. I want to also note that our cargo volumes remained strong and are only constrained by available space now being used by passenger luggage.

正如我們所看到的，行業資源庫恢復到正常的客運班次，我們預計未來幾個月的貨運收益率將下降，但仍將穩固高於 2019 年的水平。我還想指出，我們的貨運量依然強勁，並且僅受到旅客行李現在使用的可用空間的限制。

If a drop-off in cargo revenues is an early sign of a recession, we don't see it. MileagePlus had a strong quarter with revenues up 23% versus 2Q '19. Our co-branded credit card broke just about every record you can think of in terms of spend, retention and new cards issued.

如果貨運收入下降是經濟衰退的早期跡象，我們看不到。前程萬里 (MileagePlus) 的季度表現強勁，與 19 年第二季度相比，收入增長了 23%。我們的聯名信用卡幾乎打破了您能想到的所有支出、留存率和新卡發行記錄。

Our ancillary and premium revenue streams are also doing great. Ancillary revenue per onboard passenger was up almost 30% versus '19. Additionally, our steep product revenues per passenger were almost up 40%. As I've mentioned before, premium leisure continues to be a bright spot with the premium cabin domestic revenue growth, outpacing the economy cabin in the second quarter.

我們的輔助和溢價收入流也做得很好。與 19 年相比，每位機上乘客的輔助收入增長了近 30%。此外，我們每位乘客的陡峭產品收入增長了近 40%。正如我之前提到的，高端休閒仍然是高端客艙國內收入增長的亮點，在第二季度超過了經濟艙。

This trend is really important as our United Next capacity plans grows premiums even faster than main cabin over the next few years. For Q2, Pacific PRASM increased 15%, albeit on a capacity down 67%. Atlantic PRASM was up 6%, even in the backdrop of a 9% capacity growth versus '19, and Latin PRASM was up 14% in the quarter on 8% more capacity.

這一趨勢非常重要，因為我們的 United Next 運力計劃在未來幾年的保費增長速度甚至超過主艙。對於第二季度，Pacific PRASM 增長了 15%，儘管運力下降了 67%。大西洋 PRASM 增長 6%，即使在運力比 19 年增長 9% 的背景下，拉丁 PRASM 在本季度增長 14%，運力增加 8%。

Overall, international PRASM was up 13%. Domestic PRASM increased 25%, and that's with a backdrop of an 8% increase in gauge, versus Q2 '19, a material reduction in RJ feeder traffic and many other constraints that limit optimal capacity deployment.

總體而言，國際 PRASM 上漲了 13%。國內 PRASM 增長了 25%，這是在軌距增加 8% 的背景下，與 19 年第二季度相比，RJ 支線流量大幅減少以及許多其他限制最佳容量部署的限制因素。

The strength of the post-COVID recovery, combined with capacity constraints, are offset in any macroeconomic headwinds, enabling record TRASM results. Now turning to the third quarter. We're focused on carefully managing our capacity, yield and operation with schedules we can reliably and profitably deliver.

COVID 後復甦的力量以及產能限制被任何宏觀經濟逆風所抵消，從而實現了創紀錄的 TRASM 結果。現在轉向第三季度。我們專注於仔細管理我們的產能、產量和運營，並按照我們能夠可靠且有利可圖地交付的時間表。

We expect third quarter capacity will be down approximately 11% versus third quarter of '19. Q3 TRASM is expected to improve by 24% to 26% versus the same period in 2019. International TRASM is now spooling up further.

我們預計第三季度產能將比 19 年第三季度下降約 11%。與 2019 年同期相比，第三季度 TRASM 預計將提高 24% 至 26%。國際 TRASM 現在正在進一步加速。

We're well into the Q3 booking curve and pleased with the revenue trends. We're not counting on a material rebound in business bookings in the quarter to meet our TRASM guide. United's capacity in the fourth quarter will also remain below our original targets at approximately down 11%.

我們已經進入第三季度的預訂曲線，並對收入趨勢感到滿意。我們不指望本季度業務預訂量出現實質性反彈來滿足我們的 TRASM 指南。美聯航第四季度的運力也將低於我們最初的目標，下降約 11%。

The revenue environment for passengers, ancillary fees, domestic premium seating, MileagePlus and cargo are all just materially different in a positive way than 2019. It appears to us that the airline industry revenues are rapidly returning to the 2019 GDP relationship, which is really important to our 2023 capacity planning outlook.

乘客、輔助費用、國內高級座位、前程萬里 (MileagePlus) 和貨運的收入環境都與 2019 年有很大不同。在我們看來，航空業收入正在迅速恢復到 2019 年的 GDP 關係，這非常重要我們的 2023 年產能規劃展望。

We continue to assess capacity plans for 2023 and now expect United capacity will be up about 8%. To be transparent, our outlook for growth -- 8% growth is significantly lower than our previous planned growth. we at United are going to be able to execute our plan and do it comfortably.

我們繼續評估 2023 年的運力計劃，現在預計美聯航運力將增長約 8%。透明地說，我們的增長前景——8% 的增長明顯低於我們之前的計劃增長。我們曼聯將能夠執行我們的計劃並輕鬆完成。

We feel 8% growth is the right choice and achievable for United. At United taking care of our customers is our #1 focus, and we believe that moderating capacity growth will allow us to deliver service levels our customers expect. The entire industry faces at least 3 core challenges over the next 18 to 24 months. One, industry infrastructure shortfall; two, high fuel prices; and three, macroeconomic concerns.

我們認為 8% 的增長是美聯航的正確選擇和可以實現的。在美聯航，照顧客戶是我們的第一重點，我們相信減緩運力增長將使我們能夠提供客戶期望的服務水平。整個行業在未來 18 到 24 個月內至少面臨 3 個核心挑戰。一、行業基礎設施不足；二、燃油價格高；三是宏觀經濟問題。

Some airlines, including United, faced a fourth risk that not all others may face, delivery delays from Boeing. These constraints are clearly having a material positive impact on revenue production. Higher fuel prices and macro recommenced alone may not have impacted industry capacity.

包括美聯航在內的一些航空公司面臨著並非所有其他航空公司都可能面臨的第四個風險，即波音的交付延誤。這些限制顯然對收入產生了重大的積極影響。燃料價格上漲和宏觀經濟單獨重啟可能不會影響行業產能。

However, infrastructure constraints and bone delivery delays will take time to fix and cannot be ignored. Pilot recruiting, training and retention, we believe, are real constraints for the industry for years to come. As Scott has said earlier, the calculation of how we get to our 2023 margin guidance has changed.

然而，基礎設施限制和骨輸送延遲將需要時間來解決，並且不能被忽視。我們相信，飛行員的招聘、培訓和保留是未來幾年該行業的真正制約因素。正如斯科特之前所說，我們如何達到 2023 年保證金指導的計算方式已經改變。

We will have higher cost, higher fuel, lower capacity, but most importantly, higher revenues. Thanks to the entire United team. And with that, I will hand it over to Gerry to discuss our financial results.

我們將擁有更高的成本、更高的燃料、更低的產能，但最重要的是，更高的收入。感謝整個曼聯團隊。有了這個，我將把它交給 Gerry 來討論我們的財務業績。

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. First, I would like to add my thanks to the entire United team for achieving our first quarter of profitability since the start of the pandemic. For the second quarter of 2022, we reported pretax income of $459 million, $611 million on an adjusted basis.

謝謝，安德魯，大家早上好。首先，我要感謝整個曼聯團隊自大流行開始以來實現了我們第一季度的盈利。 2022 年第二季度，我們報告的稅前收入為 4.59 億美元，調整後為 6.11 億美元。

Our second quarter CASM-ex ended up 17% versus the second quarter of 2019, which was in line with our prior guidance despite capacity coming in lower than previously expected. But the cost story for the quarter was not about CASM-ex. It was about fuel and the ability of air industry, while in the midst of recovering from the pandemic, to withstand record high fuel prices.

我們的第二季度 CASM-ex 與 2019 年第二季度相比上漲了 17%，這與我們之前的指導一致，儘管產能低於之前的預期。但本季度的成本故事與 CASM-ex 無關。這是關於燃料和航空工業在從大流行中恢復的同時承受創紀錄的高燃料價格的能力。

The fuel price volatility was exacerbated by unusual pressure on jet fuel prices in certain geographic regions where we had limited opportunity to mitigate our exposure. For example, in April and May, the cost of jet fuel based on New York harbor pricing was often several dollars higher per gallon than Gulf Coast jet fuel.

燃油價格波動因某些地理區域的航空燃油價格異常壓力而加劇，在這些地區我們減輕風險敞口的機會有限。例如，在 4 月和 5 月，基於紐約港定價的噴氣燃料成本通常比墨西哥灣沿岸噴氣燃料每加侖高出幾美元。

Nonetheless, our strong unit revenue performance enabled us to offset most of the fuel pressure as we attained an adjusted operating margin in the second quarter of just over 8%. While lower than our May guidance of 10%, the difference is mostly due to approximately $150 million of incremental fuel expense for the quarter versus what we forecasted in May.

儘管如此，我們強勁的單位收入表現使我們能夠抵消大部分燃料壓力，因為我們在第二季度獲得了略高於 8% 的調整後營業利潤率。雖然低於我們 5 月份 10% 的指引，但差異主要是由於本季度增加了約 1.5 億美元的燃料費用，而我們在 5 月份的預測是這樣的。

Turning to our forward outlook. We currently expect CASM-ex to be up approximately 16% to 17% in the third quarter and capacity down 11%, both versus the third quarter of 2019. Our third quarter costs are impacted by the current operating environment. During the recovery period where supply chain issues, labor shortages and COVID variants create challenges throughout the economy, we are mitigating the impact to our operation and our customers by overstaffing and limiting capacity.

轉向我們的未來展望。我們目前預計，與 2019 年第三季度相比，第三季度 CASM-ex 將增長約 16% 至 17%，產能下降 11%。我們第三季度的成本受到當前運營環境的影響。在供應鏈問題、勞動力短缺和 COVID 變異對整個經濟造成挑戰的恢復期內，我們正在通過人員過剩和限制產能來減輕對我們的運營和客戶的影響。

While this creates near-term CASM headwind, we believe it is the right thing to do for our customers and ultimately for our profitability. We also have to manage more closing cancellations due to various infrastructure issues. For example, for several weeks in September, we are reducing our schedule in Newark by about 200 flights per day as a result of runway construction.

雖然這會在短期內造成 CASM 逆風，但我們認為這對我們的客戶以及最終對我們的盈利能力而言是正確的做法。由於各種基礎設施問題，我們還必須管理更多的關閉取消。例如，在 9 月的幾個星期裡，由於跑道建設，我們每天將在紐瓦克的航班減少約 200 個航班。

These types of cancellations result in additional CASM ex pressure as many variable costs simply cannot be avoided due to the short lead time for the schedule adjustments. Nonetheless, we once again expect to be profitable in the third quarter and expect our adjusted operating margin to be 10% based on a fuel price per gallon of $3.81.

這些類型的取消會導致額外的 CASM ex 壓力，因為由於日程調整的提前期很短，許多可變成本根本無法避免。儘管如此，我們再次預計第三季度將實現盈利，並預計基於每加侖 3.81 美元的燃料價格調整後的營業利潤率為 10%。

Additionally, we continue to expect an adjusted pretax profit for the full year 2022. Looking beyond the third quarter, we will continue to manage our capacity growth into next year prudently. We currently expect our fourth quarter capacity down 10% with our CASM-ex up 14%.

此外，我們繼續預計 2022 年全年調整後的稅前利潤。展望第三季度之後，我們將繼續謹慎管理明年的產能增長。我們目前預計我們的第四季度產能將下降 10%，而我們的 CASM-ex 將增長 14%。

In addition, as Andrew described, we now expect full year 2023 capacity to be up no more than approximately 8% versus 2019, down from the original United next goal of 20%. Even at this lower capacity for next year, we feel good about achieving our United Next adjusted pretax margin target.

此外，正如安德魯所描述的，我們現在預計 2023 年全年運力與 2019 年相比增長不超過約 8%，低於最初的美聯航下一個目標 20%。即使明年的運力較低，我們對實現 United Next 調整後的稅前利潤率目標感到滿意。

After taking into account the impact of lower capacity, causing, for example, fixed cost to be spread among fewer ASMs, and about 3 points of inflationary pressure we've seen, we would expect CASM-ex to be up about 5% versus 2019.

考慮到產能下降的影響，例如導致固定成本在較少的 ASM 之間分攤，以及我們看到的大約 3 個通脹壓力點，我們預計 CASM-ex 將比 2019 年上漲約 5% .

Using a fuel price per gallon of $3.40 based on the current forward curve, unit revenue can decline by as much as 8 points from current levels, and we would still achieve the 9% United Next adjusted pretax margin target. And as Scott mentioned, as our assumptions change, we will do what it takes to deliver on our commitment.

根據當前的遠期曲線使用每加侖 3.40 美元的燃料價格，單位收入可能會比當前水平下降多達 8 個百分點，我們仍將實現 9% 的 United Next 調整後的稅前利潤率目標。正如斯科特所說，隨著我們的假設發生變化，我們將盡一切努力兌現我們的承諾。

Turning to fleet. Our new aircraft delivery schedule for this year continues to shift a little to the right. We now expect to take delivery of no more than 46 MAX aircraft and 5 787s during the year. We currently expect full year 2022 adjusted CapEx of about $5.2 billion, which will be lower to the extent fewer aircraft are actually delivered.

轉向艦隊。我們今年的新飛機交付計劃繼續略微向右移動。我們現在預計年內將接收不超過 46 架 MAX 飛機和 5 787 架飛機。我們目前預計 2022 年全年調整後的資本支出約為 52 億美元，這將低於實際交付的飛機數量減少的程度。

We finally started taking delivery of our first new aircraft of the year during the last week in June, and in the last few weeks, we have taken delivery of 4 737 MAX aircraft. We continue to evaluate the most appropriate way to pay for our new aircraft deliveries in the context of our liquidity position, other potential uses of our cash in the current macro environment.

我們終於在六月的最後一周開始接收我們今年的第一架新飛機，在過去的幾周里，我們已經接收了 4 737 MAX 飛機。我們將繼續根據我們的流動性狀況以及當前宏觀環境中現金的其他潛在用途，評估支付新飛機交付費用的最合適方式。

Given that we ended the second quarter with about $22 billion of liquidity and we used cash on hand to purchase the 4 aircraft already delivered this year, and currently, we expect to pay for more than half of our total 2022 aircraft deliveries with cash on hand, though we remain flexible as we continue to monitor the economy and the recovery.

鑑於我們在第二季度結束時擁有約 220 億美元的流動資金，並且我們用手頭現金購買了今年已經交付的 4 架飛機，目前，我們預計將用手頭現金支付 2022 年飛機交付總量的一半以上，儘管我們在繼續監測經濟和復蘇時保持靈活性。

Paying for these aircraft with cash while paying down current maturities and opportunistically prepaying certain debt to build our unencumbered asset base, a win-win for the balance sheet. So far this year, we have reduced our total debt by over $1 billion. And with scheduled debt payments between $3 billion and $4 billion annually for the next several years, we will continue to have the ability to delever our balance sheet through normal amortization.

用現金支付這些飛機的費用，同時償還當前到期的債務，並有機會提前償還某些債務以建立我們未支配的資產基礎，這對資產負債表來說是雙贏的。今年到目前為止，我們已將總債務減少了超過 10 億美元。在接下來的幾年中，每年計劃的債務支付在 30 億至 40 億美元之間，我們將繼續有能力通過正常的攤銷來減少我們的資產負債表。

In conclusion, as we execute our network cost and balance sheet plans, which form the core of our United Next strategy, we grow more confident every day that we will deliver on our 2023 and 2026 adjusted pretax margin target. And with that, I will hand it over to Kristina to start the Q&A.

總之，隨著我們執行構成 United Next 戰略核心的網絡成本和資產負債表計劃，我們每天都對實現 2023 年和 2026 年調整後的稅前利潤率目標更有信心。有了這個，我將把它交給克里斯蒂娜開始問答。

Thank you, Gerry. We will now take questions from the analyst community. Please limit yourself to 1 question and if needed, 1 follow-up question. Hilda, please describe the procedure to ask a question.

謝謝你，格里。我們現在將回答分析師社區的問題。請限制自己回答 1 個問題，如果需要，請回答 1 個後續問題。希爾達，請描述提問的程序。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We have a question from Mike Linenberg from Deutsche Bank.

我們有來自德意志銀行的 Mike Linenberg 的問題。

Congrats on getting back to profitability. Scott, you sort of touched on the capacity change and maybe this is to you or to Andrew, but based on our math, it looked like you were going to probably be up about 20% under the previous plan from a year ago. And now it's at 8 -- 12 points, obviously, that's a lot.

恭喜您恢復盈利。斯科特，你有點提到容量變化，也許這對你或安德魯來說是這樣，但根據我們的數學，看起來你可能會比一年前的先前計劃增加約 20%。現在是 8 到 12 分，顯然，這已經很多了。

And obviously, it's a sizable headwind for CASM. But can you give us a little bit more sort of drill down? Is that maybe a slower improvement or increase in gauge? Is that a more gradual restoration of bringing back 777s? Like, what's driving those changes, if you can just dig into that?

顯然，這對 CASM 來說是一個相當大的阻力。但是你能給我們更多的深入了解嗎？這可能是一個較慢的改進或增加的規格嗎？這是對帶回 777 的更漸進的恢復嗎？比如，是什麼推動了這些變化，如果你能深入研究的話？

Mike, it's Andrew. Let me give it a shot here. As we looked out into the year, there are a couple of big buckets that are different and get us from the 20% that you are referring to, to where we're currently projecting.

邁克，我是安德魯。讓我在這裡試一試。當我們展望這一年時，有幾個不同的大桶讓我們從你所指的 20% 到我們目前預測的地方。

the first one is the change at United Express where we're simply flying dramatically fewer airplanes, and we're flying them at lower utilization. So that definitely lowered our ASMs. And think of that as 4 to 5 points in total.

第一個是聯合快運公司的變化，我們只是大幅減少了飛機的數量，而且我們以較低的利用率飛行它們。所以這肯定會降低我們的 ASM。並將其視為總共 4 到 5 分。

There is a -- as part of that 4 to 5 points, because that's really substantial, is the fact that United mainline aircraft have taken over flying on many of these shorter-haul routes and those shorter-haul routes simply produce less ASMs.

有一個 - 作為 4 到 5 點的一部分，因為這真的很重要，那就是聯合幹線飛機已經接管了許多這些短途航線的飛行，而這些短途航線只會產生更少的 ASM。

So that explains, I think, one of the bigger buckets of the difference. The second significant bucket of difference is our assumptions about global long-haul flying and the recovery of our Asian network and our ability to overfly a Russian airspace. So relative to what we originally thought in terms of the recovery in Asia and our ability to overfly Russian air space.

所以這解釋了，我認為，更大的差異之一。第二個重大差異是我們對全球長途飛行和我們亞洲網絡的恢復以及我們飛越俄羅斯領空的能力的假設。因此，相對於我們最初在亞洲復甦和我們飛越俄羅斯領空的能力方面的想法。

Think of it as another 3, potentially 4, points of different as we take the aircraft that we're flying in a very, very long-haul routes and now have them fly what are much shorter haul routes. They simply produce fewer ASMs, although a similar number of departures.

將其視為另外 3 個，可能是 4 個不同點，因為我們乘坐的飛機在非常非常長的航線上飛行，而現在讓它們飛行更短的航線。他們只是生產更少的 ASM，儘管離開的數量相似。

Those are the 2 big buckets that represent a material difference there relative to what we expect in the second half of next year. So we do plan on flying the full airline in the second half of next year. But those 2 buckets materially change the structure of our ASM productivity.

相對於我們在明年下半年的預期，這兩個大桶代表了那裡的重大差異。因此，我們確實計劃在明年下半年飛行整個航空公司。但是，這兩個桶從根本上改變了我們 ASM 生產力的結構。

And it's worth noting that we were going to get to this point on the RJs anyway in the United Next plan. This is where we were going. So this is an acceleration. So it does not change our 2026 ASMs or CASM-ex or the productivity of the airline then.

值得注意的是，無論如何，在 United Next 計劃中，我們將在 RJ 上達到這一點。這就是我們要去的地方。所以這是一個加速。因此，它不會改變我們的 2026 ASM 或 CASM-ex 或當時航空公司的生產力。

And the second thing that I think is really important, there are the certain parts of the Asia that have not come back, and we don't believe it will be coming back in the near future. While they had very low CASM, they also had lower RASM.

第二件事我認為非常重要，亞洲的某些地區還沒有回來，我們不相信它會在不久的將來回來。雖然他們的 CASM 非常低，但他們的 RASM 也較低。

And so while we look forward to bringing these routes back, we look forward to bringing them back in such a way that they come back at a higher margin. And in fact, if you look at our Asian performance and our TRASM performance in the quarter, you'll notice I think, exactly what we're doing.

因此，雖然我們期待將這些路線帶回來，但我們也期待以更高的利潤率將它們帶回來。事實上，如果你看看我們在本季度的亞洲表現和 TRASM 表現，你會注意到我認為，這正是我們正在做的事情。

We think those are 2 moves, they don't change the endpoint at all, which is the critical part of the answer here, to where we'll be in 2026. The United Express part is an acceleration, and the long-haul global route is just a deferral, given some of the geopolitical issues that we face today.

我們認為這是兩步走，它們根本不會改變終點，這是答案的關鍵部分，我們將在 2026 年到達的地方。聯合快運部分是加速，而長途全球考慮到我們今天面臨的一些地緣政治問題，路線只是推遲。

Okay. Great. And just a quick follow-up, just the pretax target for next year and CASM guide, that assumes a pilot deal is done? Is that right or not?

好的。偉大的。只是快速跟進，只是明年的稅前目標和 CASM 指南，假設試點交易已經完成？這是對還是錯？

So our CASM numbers assume all the costs that we would expect for next year.

因此，我們的 CASM 數字假設了我們預計明年的所有成本。

Yes. It includes labor deals.

是的。它包括勞務交易。

Our next question comes from Helane Becker from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

Could you talk a little bit about the new routes that you started, the leisure focused Atlantic routes and how they're performing relative to expectations and whether or not that part of the strategic plan to increase capacity in other markets like that will continue?

您能否談談您開始的新航線、以休閒為主的大西洋航線，以及它們相對於預期的表現如何，以及增加其他市場運力的戰略計劃的這一部分是否會繼續？

Helane, it's Andrew. Let me give that a try as well. We started these routes at the beginning of this last season, and they're all new and they're all spin up. And one of the things I'll note is I think they all did incredibly well for their first few weeks of operation, including us never even flying to those destinations in the past -- when you look at our RASM guide, TRASM guide for the next quarter, embedded in that is an acceleration of international RASM where we are spooling up and catching up, and it looked really good as we go into the third quarter.

海蘭，我是安德魯。讓我也試一試。我們在上個賽季開始時就開始了這些路線，它們都是新的，而且都在加速。我要指出的一件事是，我認為他們在運營的前幾週都做得非常好，包括我們過去甚至從未飛往這些目的地——當你查看我們的 RASM 指南時，TRASM 指南下個季度，嵌入其中的是國際 RASM 的加速，我們正在加速和追趕，當我們進入第三季度時，它看起來非常好。

So we're pleased with how they're tracking. We wanted to try something a little bit different given where business traffic was heading in the summer, and we think it's going to be successful -- and we think you can see that based on our Q3 guide, where international RASM growth is accelerating.

因此，我們對他們的跟踪方式感到滿意。鑑於夏季商業流量的發展方向，我們想嘗試一些不同的東西，我們認為它會成功——我們認為你可以根據我們的第三季度指南看到這一點，國際 RASM 增長正在加速。

Got it. And then just on the Newark runway situation. How is that going relative to their plan and the construction at Terminal A that I think was also impacting operations? I'm not sure where they are relative to what they were -- when they were thinking they would be finished.

知道了。然後就在紐瓦克跑道上。與他們的計劃和我認為也影響運營的航站樓 A 的建設相比，這如何？我不確定它們相對於它們是什麼——當他們認為他們會完成時。

Well, I'll let Toby correct me if I miss something wrong here. But the runway construction is going to take one of the runways out of service for a few weeks in September. It's a big chunk. We're going to take 200 flights a day out during that time in September. So that's a reasonable chunk of our capacity.

好吧，如果我錯過了這裡的錯誤，我會讓托比糾正我。但跑道建設將使其中一條跑道在 9 月停止服務幾週。這是一大塊。在 9 月的這段時間裡，我們將每天搭乘 200 趟航班。所以這是我們能力的一個合理部分。

Obviously, the cost basically all stay in place when you do that. And we have our fingers crossed that while it's been delayed several times that there won't be any more delays for the new terminal, which is a beautiful new terminal. It's going to be great for our customers when it's done. But that airport is -- already got 10 pounds in a 5-pound bag and trying to do it with one fewer terminal is a nightmare. And so hopefully, it will be on schedule for the fourth quarter.

顯然，當你這樣做時，成本基本上都保持不變。我們已經祈禱了，雖然它已經延遲了好幾次，但新航站樓不會再有任何延誤，這是一個漂亮的新航站樓。完成後對我們的客戶來說會很棒。但是那個機場——一個 5 磅重的袋子裡已經裝了 10 磅，而試圖用更少的航站樓來做到這一點是一場噩夢。所以希望它會在第四季度按計劃進行。

The next question comes from Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Didora。

So Andrew, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks maybe some softer corporate bookings of late. How do you think the operational difficulties across the industry influence the way corporates are traveling or booking right now? I guess, you or Scott, have you had any conversations with your big corporate clients concerned about the dynamic that's on right now?

所以安德魯，我想你在準備好的評論中提到了最近可能會出現一些較軟的公司預訂。您認為整個行業的運營困難如何影響企業目前的旅行或預訂方式？我想，您或斯科特，您是否與關注當前動態的大企業客戶進行過任何對話？

We have. And I can tell you there's a level of frustration out there, particularly with the London Heathrow situation, where we have a large amount of -- 22 flights per day at London Heathrow. And this is clearly having some level of impact on bookings.

我們有。我可以告訴你，那裡有一定程度的挫敗感，特別是在倫敦希思羅機場的情況下，我們在倫敦希思羅機場每天有 22 個航班。這顯然對預訂產生了一定程度的影響。

That being said, our bookings are still off the chart good, growing across the Atlantic, and our RASMs are accelerating. So we look forward to get this getting resolved but I think it's having a negative impact on the return to business in the short run, those headlines are just really disturbing to read.

話雖如此，我們的預訂量仍然超出預期，在整個大西洋地區都在增長，而且我們的 RASM 正在加速。所以我們期待這個問題得到解決，但我認為它在短期內會對業務恢復產生負面影響，這些頭條新聞讀起來真的很令人不安。

And we at United are taking the appropriate action to make sure that we can get our customers to where they want to be on time and safely obviously. And we hope that these airports quickly catch up.

我們在美聯航正在採取適當的行動，以確保我們能夠將我們的客戶明顯地準時安全地送到他們想要到達的地方。我們希望這些機場能迅速趕上。

Got it. And just on your corporate business -- sorry if I missed this in your prepared remarks, how much recovered was it in 2Q? And sort of what are your expectations as we head into 3Q and the back half of the year?

知道了。就您的公司業務而言 - 抱歉，如果我在您準備好的發言中錯過了這一點，那麼第二季度恢復了多少？當我們進入第三季度和今年下半年時，您的期望是什麼？

It was 80% on volume and 75% -- sorry, 75% on volume, 80% on revenue. And while it is still improving, the rate of improvement has slowed for domestic, the rate of improvement for international still looks really good, even with the headlines about London Heathrow.

它是 80% 的銷量和 75%——抱歉，75% 的銷量，80% 的收入。雖然它仍在改善，但國內的改善速度已經放緩，國際的改善速度看起來仍然非常好，即使是關於倫敦希思羅機場的頭條新聞。

So we're really excited, obviously, about the international network and how it's going to perform in the quarter. So again, it is frustrating. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we weren't counting on to reach our target some type of heroic change in the current trajectory in September.

因此，顯然，我們對國際網絡及其在本季度的表現感到非常興奮。所以再一次，這令人沮喪。正如我在準備好的講話中所說的那樣，我們並不指望在 9 月份實現當前軌蹟的某種類型的英雄變化。

While I do think there's some upside there for a bigger rebounded business based on the feedback we've gotten when the kids go back to school, again, our TRASM outlook does not count on a significant change. We're assuming it's going to be slow at this point.

雖然根據我們在孩子們重返學校時獲得的反饋，我確實認為更大的反彈業務有一些好處，但我們的 TRASM 前景並不指望發生重大變化。我們假設此時它會很慢。

Our next question comes from Savi Syth from Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

You mentioned regional shortfall is one of the factors impacting the 2023 outlook, though maybe not really different versus 2026. And I think we've all been expecting labor inflation, but recently, one of your competitors provided kind of very large pay increase that essentially eliminates the kind of the historical pay gap between regional and mainline pilots, which I thought was an important component of making the economics on those routes to work with those kind of small aircraft. I was kind of curious what your view was on the impact of this, assuming the rest of the regional industry also follows suit.

您提到區域短缺是影響 2023 年前景的因素之一，儘管與 2026 年可能並沒有太大的不同。而且我認為我們都在期待勞動力通脹，但最近，您的一個競爭對手提供了一種非常大的加薪，基本上消除了地區和乾線飛行員之間的歷史薪酬差距，我認為這是使這些航線上的經濟適用於那種小型飛機的重要組成部分。我有點好奇你對這種影響的看法，假設其他區域行業也效仿。

Savi, I'll say that this is a big change but a change that we anticipated. So RJ ASMs used to be 7 point-something 7.5%, I think, of our ASMs. As we head to 2026, think of it as 3.5% to 4% of ASM because the economics of this business were to change. We didn't know exactly how and when it would happen, but now we know.

Savi，我會說這是一個很大的變化，但也是我們預期的變化。所以 RJ ASM 曾經是 7 個點，我認為是我們 ASM 的 7.5%。當我們邁向 2026 年時，將其視為 ASM 的 3.5% 至 4%，因為該業務的經濟狀況將發生變化。我們不知道它會如何以及何時發生，但現在我們知道了。

And so we -- I think we've prepared for this. We've planned for this. And we're not going to be reliant on RJs as much as we used to because the economic profile of the aircraft has materially changed. And that means service to small communities is going to be different.

所以我們 - 我認為我們已經為此做好了準備。我們已經為此做好了計劃。而且我們不會像過去那樣依賴 RJ，因為飛機的經濟狀況已經發生了重大變化。這意味著對小社區的服務將有所不同。

Here at United. It means more mainline aircraft with lower scheduled depth, and we think that's a profit maximizing opportunity. And we also think that our customers in those markets are going to appreciate the mainline aircraft at the end of the day. So we're on plan, but the size and scope of RJ operations and their profitability will have changed and the smaller community's ability to offer -- have differential yields that can support these high cost structures will be stressed and strained to the point where we don't think it makes sense to fly as many RJs in the future as we did in the past.

在曼聯這裡。這意味著更多的主線飛機具有較低的預定深度，我們認為這是一個利潤最大化的機會。而且我們還認為，我們在這些市場的客戶最終會喜歡幹線飛機。所以我們正在計劃中，但是 RJ 運營的規模和範圍以及它們的盈利能力將會發生變化，並且較小的社區提供的能力——能夠支持這些高成本結構的不同產量將受到壓力和緊張，以至於我們不要認為像過去那樣在未來飛行盡可能多的 RJ 是沒有意義的。

So this is a shift. We think it's a permanent shift. This is not a temporary cost increase for RJs. This is a permanent cost increase for RJs.

所以這是一個轉變。我們認為這是一個永久性的轉變。這不是 RJ 的臨時成本增加。這對 RJ 來說是永久性的成本增加。

That's helpful, Andrew. And if I might follow up, just much of the United Next plan is really kind of a lot about upgauging. And I guess -- but do you have enough kind of small and narrow body aircraft then to address that regional market? Or do you have the right fleet mix to address it?

這很有幫助，安德魯。如果我可以跟進，United Next 計劃的大部分內容實際上都是關於升級的。我猜——但是你有足夠的小型窄體飛機來解決那個區域市場嗎？還是您有合適的車隊組合來解決這個問題？

As we looked at our fleet mix -- and we can always make a change to it, and we look at the profitability by aircraft type and what we need to do to hit our financial targets, we will simply have a different shaped network in 2026 than we did in 2018 or 2019.

當我們查看我們的機隊組合時——我們總是可以對其進行改變，我們會查看飛機類型的盈利能力以及我們需要做些什麼來實現我們的財務目標，我們將在 2026 年擁有一個不同形狀的網絡比我們在 2018 年或 2019 年所做的還要多。

And again, various small communities will have less frequency, but bigger aircraft. We think that is the profit maximizing opportunity. And -- so we are not anxious to jump into a 120-seat narrow-body to fill this gap at this point.

再一次，各種小型社區將擁有更少的頻率，但更大的飛機。我們認為這是利潤最大化的機會。而且——因此，我們現在並不急於跳入 120 座窄體飛機來填補這一空白。

Obviously, we can change our mind at any time. But at this point in time, we think the MAX 10 and the 321 are the way to maximize our profitability, and we will make the appropriate adjustments to our network to make sure we can do that. And there may be some cities, and we've already shut down 17 or 18 because of lack of RJs that we can't fly to. It's an unfortunate outcome of where we are, but that is what the outlook looks like at this point.

顯然，我們可以隨時改變主意。但在這個時間點，我們認為 MAX 10 和 321 是最大化我們盈利能力的方式，我們將對我們的網絡進行適當的調整以確保我們能夠做到這一點。可能有一些城市，我們已經關閉了 17 或 18 個，因為沒有我們無法飛往的 RJ。這是我們所處位置的不幸結果，但這就是目前的前景。

The next question comes from Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Jamie Baker。

Andrew, just continuing on Savi's topic. Was scope relief initially envisioned as part of United Next?

安德魯，繼續討論薩維的話題。最初設想的範圍減輕是 United Next 的一部分嗎？

United Next in our plan never had more than 255 76-seat RJs in it.

在我們的計劃中，United Next 從來沒有超過 255 個 76 座的 RJ。

Okay. So I guess that would explain why there was no change in scope as part of the TA, right?

好的。所以我想這可以解釋為什麼作為 TA 的一部分範圍沒有變化，對吧？

We're after what we need, and we collaborate to get to the right answer. And we -- I'm going to say, as a team, we figured this out a number of years ago, and we got it right.

我們追求我們需要的東西，並且我們合作以獲得正確的答案。我們——我要說的是，作為一個團隊，我們在幾年前就已經解決了這個問題，而且我們做對了。

Okay. Yes. No. Cool. Okay. No, I just wanted to double check that. Second question for Gerry. Cutting planned growth and actually reducing capacity are 2 different things. Obviously, I'm not suggesting that United should be shrinking in the current environment.

好的。是的。不，很酷。好的。不，我只是想仔細檢查一下。格里的第二個問題。削減計劃增長和實際減少產能是兩件事。顯然，我並不是說曼聯應該在當前環境下萎縮。

But my question is whether the operational strains, the training pipeline, simulator -- all the pressures that exist right now, does that make it harder or easier to actually reduce capacity if there was some need to do so, if that makes sense?

但我的問題是，運營壓力、培訓管道、模擬器——所有目前存在的壓力，如果有必要的話，是否會使實際減少容量變得更難或更容易，如果這有意義的話？

Those are temporary issues and -- the key for us is ensuring that we have full utilization of all the aircraft on-premises. So any aircraft that we have, we want to fly the appropriate amount of hours. So really reducing capacity is all about the fleet mix. And as we said before, we have plenty of flexibility there.

這些都是暫時的問題，對我們來說，關鍵是確保我們充分利用本地的所有飛機。因此，我們擁有的任何飛機，我們都希望飛行適當的小時數。因此，真正減少運力完全取決於機隊組合。正如我們之前所說，我們在這方面有很大的靈活性。

If Andrew decides he doesn't want as many aircraft flying. We will look at the retirement of the oldest aircraft, and we'll look at the flexibility we have on adjusting the delivery schedule and share it that way.

如果安德魯決定他不希望有那麼多飛機飛行。我們將研究最舊飛機的退役情況，我們將研究我們在調整交付時間表方面的靈活性並以這種方式分享。

Well, let me ask the question slightly differently, if I may. If you think in the past, the level of economic strain that had to be applied to an airline before they decided to reduce capacity. Where does that bar rest today relative to where it was in the past? It seems higher to me, but I'd like to hear what you have to say.

好吧，如果可以的話，讓我稍微不同地問這個問題。如果您過去認為，航空公司在決定減少運力之前必須承受的經濟壓力水平。與過去相比，今天的酒吧在哪裡休息？對我來說似乎更高，但我想听聽你要說什麼。

Jamie, I'd like to try on this. I just think that the training is more physical constraint. I mean Andrew sort of hinted at and said it in his capacity for us and everyone else in the industry is not so much about trying to maximize next quarter's profitability or margin.

傑米，我想試試這個。我只是覺得訓練更多的是身體上的約束。我的意思是，安德魯以他的身份暗示並說，對我們和業內其他所有人來說，這並不是試圖最大限度地提高下一季度的盈利能力或利潤率。

It's -- we'd be profitable if we were flying more right now. It's about physical constraints. The physical constraint on being able to fly are the current constraints. They happen to, at the moment, aligned with what everyone is worried about on fuel prices and the economy, but the physical constraints are the factor.

這是 - 如果我們現在飛行更多，我們將是有利可圖的。這是關於物理限制的。能夠飛行的物理限制是當前的限制。目前，它們恰好與每個人對燃料價格和經濟的擔憂一致，但物理限制是因素。

The next question comes from David Vernon from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 David Vernon。

So Andrew, you mentioned you were encouraged by what you're seeing in bookings in 3Q. Can you talk a little bit more about how that's shaking up? Areas of strength or weakness and anything out of the ordinary relative to what you might normally see in the September quarter?

所以安德魯，你提到你對第三季度的預訂情況感到鼓舞。你能多談談這是如何動搖的嗎？與您通常在 9 月季度看到的情況相比，優勢或劣勢領域以及任何不尋常的地方？

Sure. We're almost 2/3 through the booking curve here for the quarter. So we have a lot of visibility into what we're looking at. And I think the -- first, the biggest thing I would say is we do see the acceleration on our international network across the board, which is great to see.

當然。我們在本季度的預訂曲線中幾乎完成了 2/3。因此，我們對正在查看的內容有很多可見性。我認為 - 首先，我想說的最重要的事情是我們確實看到了我們國際網絡的全面加速，這很高興看到。

Second, I'll really point out Asia. Asia is leading the way. I think we're bringing that back in a way that it comes back more profitable than where we were in 2019. And for me, that's absolutely critical to close in the margin gap that we had historically had, international versus domestic, by bringing back Asia equal to the rest of it or, in fact, maybe even better.

其次，我將真正指出亞洲。亞洲處於領先地位。我認為我們正在以一種比 2019 年更有利可圖的方式恢復這一點。對我來說，這對於縮小我們歷史上存在的國際與國內利潤率差距至關重要，通過恢復亞洲與其他地區相當，或者實際上可能更好。

The other thing I would tell you, as we go into September, which I think everybody is looking towards is this pivotal moment where we switch from less leisure-focused demand to more business-focused demand. as we go into the September month, I can tell you all of our curves are better than they were for July and August and even June.

我要告訴你的另一件事是，隨著我們進入 9 月，我認為每個人都在期待這個關鍵時刻，我們從不太注重休閒的需求轉向更多注重商業的需求。當我們進入 9 月份時，我可以告訴你，我們所有的曲線都比 7 月和 8 月甚至 6 月要好。

So as we approach September, we approach it better booked with better yields. And so we remain really bullish and optimistic. And we gave you, I think, a really fantastic TRASM guide for the quarter that September is shaping up really well on that. Obviously, we have a long way to go. But what I can tell you is the leading indicators right now are, I think, really positive.

因此，當我們接近 9 月時，我們會以更好的收益率接近它。因此，我們仍然非常樂觀和樂觀。我認為，我們為您提供了一份非常棒的 TRASM 指南，該指南在 9 月份的季度中表現得非常好。顯然，我們還有很長的路要走。但我可以告訴你的是，我認為目前的領先指標非常積極。

The only place where we see lower yields in the quarter are in our cargo division, and that's simply a reflection of a lot more wide-body capacity coming back into the marketplace, causing a little bit lower yield in that environment, but still substantially higher than where we were in 2019 by many times.

我們在本季度看到產量較低的唯一地方是我們的貨運部門，這只是反映了更多的寬體運力重返市場，在這種環境下導致產量略低，但仍顯著提高比我們 2019 年的情況高出很多倍。

So hopefully, that gives you some color, but really good, great and fantastic momentum from a train perspective as we head into this quarter, in my opinion.

所以希望這能給你一些色彩，但在我看來，當我們進入本季度時，從火車的角度來看，這是非常好的、偉大的和奇妙的動力。

All right. And then, Gerry, as we're taking down sort of capacity expectations or at least shifting some of the targets for when capacity comes in the part of United Next, is it going to have an impact on the timing of CapEx across the plan? Or are you guys going to keep the fleet plan kind of as is?

好的。然後，Gerry，因為我們正在降低某種產能預期，或者至少改變 United Next 部分產能的一些目標，這是否會對整個計劃中資本支出的時間安排產生影響？還是你們要保持艦隊計劃不變？

No. We're going to keep everything as is now. Having said that, as everybody knows, we don't have necessarily 100% confidence in the aircraft delivery schedule, which is the bulk of the CapEx. So I would expect my opinion is we're not going to take as many aircraft this year, some shift to next year, some of next year shift to the following year.

不，我們將保持現在的一切。話雖如此，眾所周知，我們不一定對飛機交付時間表有 100% 的信心，這是資本支出的大部分。所以我希望我的意見是我們今年不會採取那麼多飛機，一些轉移到明年，一些明年轉移到下一年。

So you'll see some of that. But everything else is on track. We need to make those investments now because the airline is going to be as big as we expected in the time frame that we laid out.

所以你會看到一些。但其他一切都在軌道上。我們現在需要進行這些投資，因為在我們制定的時間框架內，這家航空公司的規模將與我們預期的一樣大。

The next question comes from Christopher Stathoulopoulos from Susquehanna International Group.

下一個問題來自 Susquehanna International Group 的 Christopher Stathoulopoulos。

Scott, you sounded fairly confident in your ASM guide for next year. And -- is the guide assuming here a slowdown? And of the domestic upgauging that you outlined last year in your plan, how much of that is realistically achievable in a recession. And should we assume any of the points, I think it was 2 points from new routes and frequency that those really are ultimately a moving target here or derivative of what happens with the economy.

Scott，你聽起來對明年的 ASM 指南相當有信心。並且——該指南是否假設這裡會放緩？在您去年在計劃中概述的國內升級中，其中有多少是在經濟衰退中可以實際實現的。如果我們假設其中任何一點，我認為這是新路線和頻率的 2 個點，它們最終是這裡的移動目標或經濟發生的事情的衍生物。

Yes. I'll try. I'm not sure I'll get the question -- I understand the question exactly. And then Andrew can correct me as well or you can tell us if we didn't answer the question. The -- I think the risk to our capacity guide for next year is Boeing delivery primarily.

是的。我會盡力。我不確定我會得到這個問題——我完全理解這個問題。然後安德魯也可以糾正我，或者如果我們沒有回答問題，你可以告訴我們。 - 我認為我們明年產能指南的風險主要是波音的交付。

And so we'll see. But we have attempted, on this call, I think, to rip the Band-Aid off on what we think is realistic about capacity for the next 18 months and get to a baseline that we're going to hit. But we are clearly exposed to Boeing delivery delays.

我們拭目以待。但我認為，在這次電話會議上，我們已經嘗試在我們認為對未來 18 個月的產能現實可行的情況下撕毀創可貼，並達到我們將要達到的基線。但我們顯然受到波音交付延誤的影響。

I think the point that is perhaps we haven't explained as well and some of it's getting lost in all of this is a huge -- there's so many moving parts in capacity and CASM-ex. But a big part of it is 2 things that Andrew talked about.

我認為，也許我們還沒有解釋清楚，而且其中一些在所有這些中都丟失了，這是一個巨大的問題——容量和 CASM-ex 中有很多活動部件。但其中很大一部分是安德魯談到的兩件事。

We have a lot less long-haul flying to Asia, which lowers our stage length, and that is very low CASM flying. It's also low RASM flying. And the other thing is mainland airplanes are now flying shorter haul, which means lower utilization routes that used to be flown by jet. That also has a increase in CASM. So a lot of it is happening is just the mainline airplanes are being used differently.

我們飛往亞洲的長途航班少了很多，這降低了我們的舞台長度，這是非常低的 CASM 飛行。它也是低 RASM 飛行。另一件事是大陸飛機現在的航程更短，這意味著過去由噴氣式飛機飛行的航線利用率較低。這也增加了 CASM。所以發生的很多事情只是乾線飛機的使用方式不同。

They're not flying to Asia and they're not flying short-haul routes. They are very high CASM. They also happen to be very high RASM. You see that lead across the industry, 8 or 9 quarters in a row on TRASM. Part of that is we're proud of what we're doing, but part of that is just the change in how the airplanes are flying in stage length.

他們沒有飛往亞洲，也沒有飛短途航線。他們的CASM很高。它們也恰好是非常高的 RASM。您會在 TRASM 上連續 8 或 9 個季度看到整個行業的領先優勢。部分原因是我們為我們正在做的事情感到自豪，但部分原因只是飛機在階段長度上的飛行方式發生了變化。

So -- some of what's going on here is that switch, which we expected to happen, as Andrew said, over a longer period of time to sort of gradually come in between now and 2026, but now it's happening immediately. And that's a big headwind to CASM, and it's a big tailwind to RASM.

所以 - 這裡發生的一些事情是這種轉變，正如安德魯所說，我們預計會在更長的時間內發生，從現在到 2026 年之間逐漸發生，但現在它正在立即發生。這對 CASM 來說是一個很大的不利因素，對 RASM 來說是一個很大的順風。

I think you see that reflected in our margin results. If you strip out things like differences in fuels or refineries, our results are at least amongst the best, if not the best kind of relative to 2019, our acceleration quarter-to-quarter is -- you kind of -- if you look past the headline RASM or headline single statistic, I think you see what's most important to us is the margin development and that happening.

我認為您會在我們的利潤率結果中看到這一點。如果你剔除燃料或煉油廠的差異等因素，我們的結果至少是最好的，如果不是相對於 2019 年最好的，我們的季度加速是 - 你有點 - 如果你回顧過去標題 RASM 或標題單一統計數據，我認為您看到對我們來說最重要的是利潤率發展和正在發生的事情。

But a lot of it is because of what is just -- the airplanes are being used differently in the moment into 2023 than we originally expected.

但很大程度上是因為——到 2023 年，飛機的使用方式與我們最初預期的不同。

Okay. Great color. And so Scott or Gerry, second question. In a recession, what are the 3 or 5 data points you want on your desk every morning? Is it cash sales, cancellations? I'm just curious what those are and then versus -- or how they compare to what you look at everybody currently.

好的。很棒的顏色。所以斯科特或格里，第二個問題。在經濟衰退時期，您每天早上希望辦公桌上的 3 或 5 個數據點是多少？是現金銷售，取消嗎？我只是好奇這些是什麼，然後是對比——或者它們與你目前對每個人的看法相比如何。

I can start. I just look at Andrew's expression, that tells me what I need to know. Look, I'll give you an answer that you're noting the like, which is look mostly at the same thing.

我可以開始了。我只是看看安德魯的表情，它告訴我我需要知道什麼。看，我會給你一個答案，你注意到了類似的東西，它主要是看同一件事。

Right now, the thing I look most at is what's happening operationally to us because we are focused on the long term. We're going to have recessions. They're going to happen. They end.

現在，我最關注的是我們的運營情況，因為我們專注於長期。我們將經歷經濟衰退。他們會發生的。他們結束。

And I'm glad that Gerry has built us up a great set of liquidity and balance sheet. I'm glad we're paying down debt. But we're just nowhere close to like looking at those kinds of metrics. And because of that, we are saying -- but we will stay focused on the long term.

我很高興格里為我們建立了一套很好的流動性和資產負債表。我很高興我們正在償還債務。但我們離這些指標還差得很遠。正因為如此，我們說 - 但我們將繼續專注於長期。

We're not going to yank the airline back and forth. That's how you screw up, because of what's going to happen in the next 6 months. And for us, by far, by far, by far, our #1 priority is running a great operation. Look, I'm really proud of the team. To be clear, we were better in every operating metric that I look at than our legacy competitors, but that was in a tough environment.

我們不會來回拉扯航空公司。這就是你搞砸的方式，因為接下來的 6 個月會發生什麼。對我們來說，到目前為止，到目前為止，我們的第一要務是運行一個偉大的操作。看，我真的為球隊感到驕傲。需要明確的是，在我看到的每個運營指標上，我們都比我們的傳統競爭對手更好，但那是在艱難的環境中。

And it's hard on our team and you can -- newspapers, it's hard on aviation. While our team did prepare for it and I think we've done a great job. And it's not good enough just to be better than the others. We've got an even higher standard that we want for customers.

我們的團隊很難，你可以——報紙，航空業很難。雖然我們的團隊確實為此做好了準備，但我認為我們做得很好。僅僅比其他人更好是不夠的。我們為客戶制定了更高的標準。

And so -- the #1 metric, I don't only look at in the morning, I now look at it 5 or 6 times a day, is our operating metrics and how we're doing and how we're setting up for the future there.

所以 - #1 指標，我不僅在早上看，我現在每天看 5 或 6 次，是我們的運營指標以及我們的表現以及我們如何設置那裡的未來。

Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

You've talked about 2023 pretax margin guidance being maintained at 9% with the implied TRASM to decelerate by 8 points versus the current levels to keep that guidance. That's still well off 2019 level. So can you maybe provide a little bit of color about how you're [paced] thinking about that, about the industry supply-demand environment in 2023?

您曾談到 2023 年稅前利潤率指引維持在 9%，隱含的 TRASM 與當前水平相比減速 8 個點以保持該指引。這仍然遠低於 2019 年的水平。那麼，您能否就 2023 年的行業供需環境，提供一些關於您 [節奏] 思考的方式？

I'll give it a try. There's just -- there isn't a lot of uncertainty in my opinion, about industry capacity next year. And I fully expect that we're going to hit our number. We've looked at it carefully.

我會試一試。在我看來，明年的行業產能沒有太多不確定性。我完全期望我們會達到我們的目標。我們已經仔細研究過了。

But I also fully expect that the rest of the industry won't. I don't even know what the numbers are for the rest of the industry at this point. In the normal year, we would know, we would have an educated guess. But I think it's going to be a relatively small number.

但我也完全預計該行業的其他公司不會。在這一點上，我什至不知道其他行業的數字是多少。在正常年份，我們會知道，我們會有一個有根據的猜測。但我認為這將是一個相對較小的數字。

And again, as I said in my opening comments, when I look at GDP, where that's going to be, where I look at our capacity is going to be and where I look at OA capacity, it likely will be, again, highly speculative at this point because I just think that whatever most airlines are saying they think they're going to achieve next year is probably significantly less than that number.

再一次，正如我在開場白中所說的，當我看 GDP 時，它會在哪裡，我看我們的能力會在哪裡，我看 OA 能力會在哪裡，這很可能再次是高度投機的在這一點上，因為我只是認為大多數航空公司所說的他們認為他們明年將實現的目標可能遠低於這個數字。

We've ripped the band-aid off this, Scott eloquently just said. And I'm just not sure others have, but we'll wait and see. So we do think that the GDP ASM numbers match up to what we just described as the appropriate numbers to get to the TRASM outlook.

我們已經撕掉了這個創可貼，斯科特雄辯地說。我只是不確定其他人有，但我們會拭目以待。因此，我們確實認為 GDP ASM 數字與我們剛剛描述的合適數字相匹配，可以得出 TRASM 前景。

Cool. And then I just wanted to follow up on the 777, just to clarify, as they come back in, how does that change your incremental capacity? And does that have any impact on the cost structure?

涼爽的。然後我只是想跟進 777，只是想澄清一下，當他們回來時，這會如何改變你的增量容量？這對成本結構有什麼影響嗎？

Well, I mean we've made a decision for the remainder of this year and the first half of next year that kind of overrides that. The 777, they're just part of the rest of the airline. They're -- there's a few of them not flying because they're waiting for their final maintenance retrofit to get back up in the air.

好吧，我的意思是，我們已經為今年剩餘時間和明年上半年做出了決定，這種決定會覆蓋這一點。 777，它們只是航空公司其餘部分的一部分。他們 - 其中一些沒有飛行，因為他們正在等待最後的維護改造以重新升空。

But the bigger issue are the structural constraints that are applying to our business over the next few quarters. And that is causing us to underutilize all aircraft types. The 777 is just one of many at this point that are being underutilized. However, as we said, we are pointing towards June 1 of next year for the summer of 2023 to get these aircraft off-line and at full utilization.

但更大的問題是未來幾個季度我們的業務面臨的結構性限制。這導致我們沒有充分利用所有類型的飛機。 777 只是目前未被充分利用的眾多機型之一。然而，正如我們所說，我們將在明年 6 月 1 日，即 2023 年夏天讓這些飛機下線並充分利用。

And that's what, as a team, we're 100% focused on. And that will deliver the 8%, assuming that Boeing also delivers the planes to us.

這就是作為一個團隊，我們 100% 關注的事情。假設波音也將飛機交付給我們，這將交付 8%。

The next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth。

Is it fair to say that the growth plan for next year is lower, but the capital plan is the same? I understand a lack of confidence around deliveries. But could we just set a mark for where you think total CapEx will be in 2023?

可以說明年的增長計劃較低，但資本計劃是一樣的嗎？我理解對交付缺乏信心。但是，我們能否為您認為 2023 年總資本支出的水平設定一個標記？

So -- the answer is yes. So aircraft deliveries are the dominant part of it. So non-aircraft I would expect runs about the same as this year, in that sort of $1.5 billion -- we haven't done our capital plan yet. But just based on what we're seeing and sort of what we know we spend, basically take aircraft deliveries and then add about $1.5 billion of non-aircraft.

所以——答案是肯定的。所以飛機交付是其中的主要部分。因此，我預計非飛機的運行與今年大致相同，為 15 億美元——我們還沒有完成資本計劃。但僅僅基於我們所看到的和我們知道的我們所花費的，基本上接受飛機交付，然後增加大約 15 億美元的非飛機。

And so the existing, what is it, $6.5 billion, $7 billion is the right way to think about it on the aircraft side?

那麼現有的，它是什麼，65 億美元，70 億美元是在飛機方面考慮它的正確方式嗎？

No, it's higher than that -- I'm sorry. It's about $7 billion, $7.5 billion for next year. That is aircraft Total aircraft is about $7 billion to $7.5 billion.

不，比那個高——對不起。大約是 70 億美元，明年是 75 億美元。那就是飛機 飛機總數約為 70 億至 75 億美元。

And then just on other revenue, you have good growth there relative to '19 despite no change fees. And so can you just comment on what's -- what are the biggest drivers to other revenue growth? How much lack of change fees are you offsetting? And is there anything sort of nonrecurring about that?

然後就其他收入而言，儘管沒有變更費，但相對於 19 年，您的增長勢頭良好。那麼你能否評論一下——其他收入增長的最大驅動力是什麼？您要抵消多少零錢？有什麼不重複的嗎？

I think the simple answer is we're offsetting all of the change fee loss, which is with all the ancillary fees we do, particularly luggage and seats. And seats have been obviously just a boom. And I give all the credit to our digital team and our app and how our marketing on those things, and we're accelerating on that front.

我認為簡單的答案是我們正在抵消所有更改費用損失，這是我們所做的所有輔助費用，特別是行李和座位。座位顯然只是熱潮。我將所有功勞歸功於我們的數字團隊和我們的應用程序，以及我們在這些方面的營銷方式，我們正在這方面加速發展。

So we're very excited about it. But the answer is it's 100%. And it's not something that's going to change in Q3. In Q3, in terms of some of the other revenues, cargo, in particular, I think we already talked about the yield issue there. But our ancillary revenues look incredibly strong.

所以我們對此感到非常興奮。但答案是100%。這不會在第三季度發生變化。在第三季度，就其他一些收入，特別是貨運而言，我認為我們已經討論了那裡的收益問題。但我們的輔助收入看起來非常強勁。

And at this moment, we will switch to take questions from the media.

而此時，我們將轉而接受媒體的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We have a question from Alison Sider from The Wall Street Journal.

我們有一個來自《華爾街日報》的 Alison Sider 的問題。

You've been outspoken on the issues you're seeing with staffing and other issues at air traffic control. And they've been fairly strong pushing back against that. I guess, like, how is the relationship with the FAA right now? Like, is there any progress behind the scenes? Or is there any deterioration there?

你一直直言不諱地談到你在空中交通管制中看到的人員配備問題和其他問題。他們一直在相當強烈地反對這一點。我想，比如，現在與 FAA 的關係如何？比如，幕後有什麼進展嗎？或者那裡有任何惡化？

So -- look, we certainly have had challenges. And by the way, like everyone in the economy has had challenges. So that's not a criticism. But it's really, really important.

所以——看，我們當然遇到了挑戰。順便說一句，就像經濟中的每個人一樣，都面臨著挑戰。所以這不是批評。但這真的非常重要。

The airline cannot run without air traffic control staff. And -- but what I'd say is really encouraging. By far, our biggest issue is (inaudible), by far, by far. Newark was the most delayed airport in the country in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, it's structural.

沒有空中交通管制人員，航空公司就無法運營。而且——但我想說的是真的令人鼓舞。到目前為止，我們最大的問題是（聽不清），到目前為止，到目前為止。紐瓦克是 2016 年、2017 年、2018 年、2019 年該國延誤最多的機場，它是結構性的。

There's only 2 parallel runways, 79 operations per hour is all the airport is designed to handle. And if we schedule it more than that, it's a problem. The good news is the FAA was really responsive. When we pointed out the problems and the challenges, they a, let us reduce the schedule right now by 50 flights per day, which we very much appreciate. It's led to huge improvement in performance at that hub and the ripples throughout the system.

只有 2 條平行跑道，每小時 79 次運行是機場設計處理的全部。如果我們安排得更多，那就是個問題。好消息是美國聯邦航空局真的反應靈敏。當我們指出問題和挑戰時，他們a，讓我們現在每天減少50個航班，我們非常感謝。它導致該集線器的性能和整個系統的漣漪有了巨大的提高。

And secondly, they've really gone to extraordinary lengths to make sure the Newark air traffic control desk is staffed, including over time and having management employees best and do things. And I forget the exact number, but in the mid -- 70-something percent reduction in air traffic control delays so far in July compared to where it was just a couple of months ago.

其次，他們真的竭盡全力確保紐瓦克空中交通管制台配備人員，包括隨著時間的推移，讓管理人員做到最好並做事。我忘記了確切的數字，但在中旬 - 與幾個月前相比，7 月份到目前為止，空中交通管制延誤減少了 70%。

So they've been very, very responsive. That's all you can ask from any partner, including them, and so we're appreciative of that. And we have our fingers crossed that, that is going to continue. This is a challenge that affects them that lets us, and we can only solve it together and they are working together with us on the solutions.

所以他們一直非常非常敏感。這就是您可以向任何合作夥伴（包括他們）提出的所有要求，因此我們對此表示讚賞。我們已經祈禱了，這將繼續下去。這是一個影響他們的挑戰，讓我們，我們只能一起解決它，他們正在與我們一起解決問題。

Got it. So -- I mean, do you feel like that whatever staffing issues that they had been facing, some of those facilities have been addressed? Or is it still an ongoing issue?

知道了。所以 - 我的意思是，你是否覺得無論他們面臨什麼人員配備問題，其中一些設施已經得到解決？或者它仍然是一個持續存在的問題？

Look, I think everyone is tight everywhere, not unique to them. Everyone is tight everywhere. But the fact that they're focused on it is really important. And the fact that they're willing to go to extraordinary links when they do have higher COVID sick calls or something happen is really what is critical.

看，我認為每個人都緊張，不是他們獨有的。每個人處處都很緊。但他們專注於它的事實非常重要。當他們確實有更高的 COVID 病假電話或發生某些事情時，他們願意去非凡的鏈接這一事實真的很關鍵。

The U.S. economy, broadly, is probably not going to get to a place where we're staffed at comfortable levels for quite some time. But they're doing a good job of being responsive, and that's the most we can hope for.

從廣義上講，美國經濟可能在很長一段時間內都不會達到我們人員配備舒適水平的地方。但是他們在響應方面做得很好，這是我們所能期望的。

The next question comes from [Mary Schlangenstein] from Bloomberg News.

下一個問題來自彭博新聞的 [Mary Schlangenstein]。

I want to see if you could talk a little bit about what sort of supply chain issues you continue to face beyond any pilot shortages at the regional level. Are you still facing a lot of shortages of just basic equipment that you need on the planes every day, parts that you need every day? And if you see any indication of when those types of shortages might ease in the future?

我想看看您是否可以談談您在區域層面的任何試點短缺之外繼續面臨什麼樣的供應鏈問題。您是否仍然面臨著每天在飛機上需要的基本設備、每天需要的零件的大量短缺？如果你看到任何跡象表明這些類型的短缺在未來何時會緩解？

It's Gerry. The answer is no, not really. Our supply chain teams have done a good job of preparing for that. We recognize where the times were going to be extended. And so we've done everything, particularly for anything essential for the operation to make sure that we were sort of ahead of the game on that.

是格瑞。答案是否定的，不是真的。我們的供應鏈團隊為此做好了準備。我們認識到時間將在哪裡延長。所以我們已經做了所有的事情，特別是對於操作所必需的任何事情，以確保我們在這方面處於領先地位。

And does that include provisioning supplies for aircraft? And what about like airport personnel that affects your operation on a daily basis?

這是否包括為飛機供應物資？像機場人員那樣每天都會影響您的運營呢？

Yes. Look -- and I'm probably not the best person to talk about this, but there are certain parts of the country where we all know there are more labor challenges than other parts. So I wouldn't tell you that every airport is fully staffed, but we've been managing, I think, pretty well through the process. At the margin, let's say, for food, we don't get necessarily everything we want all the time, and we've had to make some changes, maybe one cracker instead of another cracker, different type of cheese. But that's not affecting the operation at all.

是的。看 - 我可能不是談論這個的最佳人選，但我們都知道這個國家的某些地區比其他地區面臨更多的勞動力挑戰。所以我不會告訴你每個機場都配備齊全，但我認為，我們在整個過程中一直管理得很好。比方說，對於食物，我們不一定總是得到我們想要的一切，我們不得不做出一些改變，也許是一種餅乾而不是另一種餅乾，不同類型的奶酪。但這根本不影響操作。

We have a question from Leslie Josephs from CNBC.

我們有一個來自 CNBC 的 Leslie Josephs 的問題。

I'm just curious how you're thinking about the network for the rest of the year and into 2023, just given some of the softness in the corporate sector, Apple and other big names lately. And also curious where things stand with pilot negotiations now that seems like the last [TA] is kind of on ice. So curious how that's going and how labor relations just broadly are -- how you characterize those now.

我只是好奇你如何看待今年剩餘時間和 2023 年的網絡，只是考慮到最近企業部門、蘋果和其他大牌的一些疲軟。並且很好奇現在試點談判的情況如何，似乎最後一個 [TA] 有點冰冷。很好奇這是怎麼回事，勞資關係是如何廣泛存在的——你現在是如何描述這些的。

Leslie, from a network perspective, obviously, the schedules, I would use the word -- the term thinner. They will be thinner in the fourth quarter and early next year as we have the capacity that we have available to fly reliably. So it will be a little bit different. We are appointed still a little bit more leisure focused than we were in 2019.

Leslie，從網絡的角度來看，很明顯，時間表，我會使用這個詞——這個詞更薄。由於我們有足夠的能力可靠地飛行，它們將在第四季度和明年初變得更薄。所以會有點不同。與 2019 年相比，我們的任命仍然更加註重休閒。

We also think that's appropriate until we see business return to 100%. And we also have the issues on regional jet flying from our express partners, as I said earlier, which are causing even thinner schedules in the smaller communities we serve. I don't think we have any more communities that we're going to have to see service to for the remainder of the year based on the current plan.

在我們看到業務恢復到 100% 之前，我們也認為這是合適的。正如我之前所說，我們的快遞合作夥伴也有支線飛機飛行的問題，這導致我們服務的較小社區的日程安排更加緊張。根據目前的計劃，我認為在今年餘下的時間裡，我們不會再有任何需要服務的社區了。

Unfortunately, we've already had to remove many from our operation prior to today. So it is a bit different of a network, and it's not our run rate network, and it won't be our run rate network until next summer.

不幸的是，在今天之前，我們已經不得不從我們的操作中移除許多。所以它有點不同的網絡，它不是我們的運行速率網絡，直到明年夏天才會成為我們的運行速率網絡。

And on the pilot question, I'll say my more substantive answer for our employees and our pilots. But the short answer I think the important point is we created a unique partnership with our unions and have great relationships with our employees and people feel good about the company, where we're headed.

關於試點問題，我會為我們的員工和我們的飛行員說出更實質性的答案。但簡短的回答我認為重要的一點是我們與工會建立了獨特的合作夥伴關係，並與我們的員工建立了良好的關係，人們對公司感覺良好，這是我們前進的方向。

We were the only want to do a deal with pilots during COVID. We got a deal done in 4 weeks of negotiations with our pilots, the first airline to even come close to something.

在 COVID 期間，我們是唯一想與飛行員打交道的人。我們在與我們的飛行員進行了 4 週的談判後達成了一項協議，這是第一家甚至接近某事的航空公司。

It turns out that there are a few things in there that I think some -- that enough of the pilots didn't like that we and the union agreed we ought to fix those things. And so this is not something that's on ice. We're trying to quickly get this back and get it back out to the pilots.

事實證明，我認為其中有一些東西——足夠多的飛行員不喜歡我們和工會同意我們應該解決這些問題。所以這不是冰上的東西。我們正在努力盡快將其取回並將其返回給飛行員。

Okay. And if I could just ask 1 follow-up, where the booking curve stands now for leisure and corporate travelers and how that compares to early in the pandemic or even 2019?

好的。如果我可以問 1 個後續問題，現在休閒和商務旅客的預訂曲線在哪裡，與大流行初期甚至 2019 年相比如何？

What I'd say is the booking curve today is very similar to the booking curve of 2019. They're really the same.

我想說的是，今天的預訂曲線與 2019 年的預訂曲線非常相似。它們真的是一樣的。

The next question comes from [Lori Aratani] from the Washington Post.

下一個問題來自《華盛頓郵報》的 [Lori Aratani]。

I know Alison already touched on this, but I wanted to talk -- I want to see if you could respond. I know that you've gotten some pushback from the FAA concerns you raised about their staffing and its impact on your operations.

我知道艾莉森已經談到了這一點，但我想談談——我想看看你是否能回應。我知道您從 FAA 對他們的人員配備及其對您的運營的影響提出的擔憂中得到了一些回擊。

They're sort of saying it's not us. Yes, we have issues, but it's the airlines, and the stats from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics seem to bear that out. So I'd like to hear your thoughts on that.

他們有點說這不是我們。是的，我們有問題，但這是航空公司，交通統計局的統計數據似乎證實了這一點。所以我想听聽你對此的看法。

Well, first of all I'd say is all airlines are not created equal. When I've at least read their comments, they've been airline industry and airlines are not created any. And we have staffed the airline out. We have 10% more pilots. Our issues what we've had to deal with has been different than what others have deal with.

嗯，首先我要說的是，所有航空公司都不是生來平等的。當我至少閱讀他們的評論時，他們一直是航空業，而航空公司並沒有被創造出來。我們已經為航空公司配備了人員。我們的飛行員增加了 10%。我們必須處理的問題與其他人處理的問題不同。

And I don't think -- I've never heard them dispute that. I think if there's anything that we did that I -- that we didn't mean to have it characterized the way it got characterized was when we sent a note to our employees talking about 75% of our delays were from air traffic control delays, which is true, but normally, it's 50% because of weather because weather is included in all of that.

而且我不認為 - 我從未聽到他們對此提出異議。我想如果我們做了什麼我 - 我們不是故意讓它表徵它的表徵方式是當我們向我們的員工發送通知時談到我們75％的延誤來自空中交通管制延誤，這是真的，但通常情況下，50% 是由於天氣原因，因為天氣包括在所有這些中。

And so that's kind of what you expect. And so the difference between those two, it wasn't that 75% were air traffic control staffing delays and -- I don't think it read that way to our employees, but it certainly read that way to some people on the outside.

這就是你所期望的。所以這兩者之間的區別，並不是說 75% 是空中交通管制人員延誤，而且——我不認為我們的員工是這樣理解的，但對於外面的一些人來說，它肯定是這樣理解的。

And I actually apologized to Secretary but who to judge for that because that's not what we intended. But there was an incremental set of air traffic control delays. It was due to staffing. We rated up and down the East Coast, not a secret to anyone.

我實際上向秘書道歉，但該由誰來判斷，因為這不是我們的本意。但是，空中交通管制的延誤越來越多。這是由於人員配備。我們在東海岸上下評級，對任何人來說都不是秘密。

But the really good news is once we started talking about it, he gave the directive and he's personally keeping up with what's happening in those challenged areas of the country on the East Coast, and we've seen big improvement in July so far, even with like the issues that are -- Heathrow is a disaster.

但真正的好消息是，一旦我們開始談論它，他就下達了指令，並且他親自跟上該國東海岸那些充滿挑戰的地區正在發生的事情，到目前為止，我們已經看到了 7 月份的巨大進步，甚至像這樣的問題 - 希思羅機場是一場災難。

And with those kinds of issues, we're actually running a better airline than we did in 2019. So incredibly responsive and glad we had the open, honest conversation and appreciate the partnership and the ability to talk openly and honestly and move forward together.

有了這些問題，我們實際上經營的航空公司比 2019 年更好。我們的反應令人難以置信，很高興我們進行了開放、誠實的對話，並欣賞合作夥伴關係以及開誠佈公地交談和共同前進的能力。

Good. Do you see -- I know that you've said that they've been very responsive, and do you see this issue continuing though, for the rest of the year or into next year?

好的。你看到了嗎——我知道你說過他們反應非常迅速，你認為這個問題會持續到今年剩下的時間還是明年？

Well, look, I think the whole system is strained. I mean there's tight staffing everywhere. I mean, that's part of the -- that is the reason that we're pulling our capacity down and waiting to grow until the whole system catches up.

好吧，看，我認為整個系統都很緊張。我的意思是到處都有人手緊張。我的意思是，這是我們降低容量並等待增長直到整個系統趕上的原因的一部分。

It's not unique to the FAA. I mean, it's everything that touches -- I mean, almost everything in the whole economy, certainly, a big chunk of these that touch aviation are tight. And while you're theoretically scheduled, if it's a good weather day, and nobody calls in sick, that everything can work. There is weather and people do call in sick.

這不是美國聯邦航空局獨有的。我的意思是，它觸及到的一切——我的意思是，幾乎整個經濟中的一切，當然，其中很大一部分與航空相關的東西都很緊張。雖然理論上你已經安排好了，但如果天氣好，沒有人請病假，那麼一切都會正常進行。有天氣，人們確實請病假。

And sometimes, the Jet bridge breaks and the power goes out for 20 minutes and like stuff happens. And the system just doesn't have any buffer to deal with that. And that's -- at its core, that's why we pulled the schedule down to create more buffer, more resiliency for our customers.

有時，Jet 橋斷裂，停電 20 分鐘，類似的事情會發生。而且系統只是沒有任何緩衝區來處理這個問題。這就是 - 在其核心，這就是為什麼我們縮短了時間表，為我們的客戶創造更多的緩衝、更大的彈性。

Thank you. And now I would like to turn the call over to Kristina Munoz for closing remarks.

謝謝你。現在我想把電話轉給 Kristina Munoz 來做閉幕詞。

Thanks for joining the call today. Please contact Investor and Media Relations if you have any further questions. We look forward to talking to you next quarter.

感謝您今天加入電話會議。如果您有任何其他問題，請聯繫投資者和媒體關係部。我們期待在下個季度與您交談。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。