聯合航空 (UAL) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to United Airlines Holdings' Earnings Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021. My name is Brandon, and I'll be your conference facilitator today. Following the initial remarks from management, we will open the lines for questions. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加聯合航空控股公司 2021 年第四季度和全年的收益電話會議。我叫布蘭登，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。在管理層發表初步意見後，我們將打開提問欄。 （操作員說明）

This call is being recorded and is copyrighted. Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed or rebroadcast without the company's permission. Your participation implies your consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line.

此通話正在錄音並受版權保護。請注意，未經公司許可，不得對通話的任何部分進行錄音、轉錄或轉播。您的參與意味著您同意我們對此次通話進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，只需下線即可。

I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Kristina Munoz, Director of Investor Relations. And Kristina, you may begin.

現在，我將把演示文稿交給今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係總監 Kristina Munoz。克里斯蒂娜，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Brandon. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our website at ir.united.com.

謝謝你，布蘭登。大家早上好，歡迎參加美聯航 2021 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。昨天，我們發布了收益報告，可在我們的網站 ir.united.com 上查閱。

Information in yesterday's release and the remarks made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, which represents the company's current expectations or beliefs concerning future events and financial performance.

昨天發布的信息和本次電話會議期間的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述，代表公司當前對未來事件和財務業績的預期或信念。

All forward-looking statements are based upon information currently available to the company. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release, Form 10-K and 10-Q and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於公司目前可獲得的信息。許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期大相徑庭。請參閱我們的收益發布、10-K 和 10-Q 表格以及聯合航空控股公司和聯合航空向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他報告，以更全面地描述這些因素。

Also, during the course of our call, we will discuss several non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the tables at the end of our release.

此外，在我們的電話會議期間，我們將討論一些非公認會計原則的財務措施。有關這些非公認會計原則措施與最直接可比的公認會計原則措施的對賬，請參閱我們發布結束時的表格。

Joining us on the call today to discuss our results and outlook are Chief Executive Officer, Scott Kirby; President, Brett Hart; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Gerry Laderman. In addition, we have other members of the executive team on the line available to assist with the Q&A. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

今天加入我們的電話會議討論我們的結果和前景的是首席執行官 Scott Kirby；布雷特·哈特總裁；執行副總裁兼首席商務官 Andrew Nocella；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Gerry Laderman。此外，我們還有其他執行團隊成員在線協助問答。現在我想把電話轉給斯科特。

Thank you, Kristina, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. Before I get into the details of our fourth quarter and how we're thinking about the year ahead, I wanted to share some brief observations about the recent developments regarding the rollout of 5G.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂娜，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們。在詳細介紹我們第四季度的細節以及我們如何考慮來年之前，我想分享一些關於 5G 推出的最新發展的簡要觀察。

Mostly, I want to thank the White House, Secretary Buttigieg and the CEOs of AT&T and Verizon for finding and agreeing to an approach that mostly avoided what would have been severe disruption to passenger and cargo operations in this country.

最重要的是，我要感謝白宮、部長 Buttigieg 以及 AT&T 和 Verizon 的首席執行官找到並同意一種方法，這種方法在很大程度上避免了對該國客運和貨運業務的嚴重破壞。

This wasn't an issue created by the airline. Every carrier follows the rules dictated by the FAA. Since we first heard from the FAA about this issue in November, United has been 100% engaged to underscore the severe risk that the 5G rollout posed to aviation, but more importantly, to bring people together and drive consensus around a common set of solutions.

這不是航空公司造成的問題。每家航空公司都遵循 FAA 規定的規則。自從我們在 11 月首次從 FAA 獲悉此問題以來，美聯航一直 100% 參與強調 5G 部署給航空業帶來的嚴重風險，但更重要的是，將人們聚集在一起並圍繞一套共同的解決方案達成共識。

And we -- while we don't have a final resolution quite yet, I'm confident we'll get there. This problem has been resolved collaboratively -- can be -- has been resolved collaboratively, allowing a fulsome rollout of 5G without significant impact to aviation in 40 countries around the world, and we can do the same thing here in the United States.

我們——雖然我們還沒有最終的解決方案，但我相信我們會到達那裡。這個問題已經被合作解決——可以——已經被合作解決，允許在全球 40 個國家/地區全面推出 5G 而不會對航空產生重大影響，我們可以在美國做同樣的事情。

While I wish it had happened earlier, the good news is we now have everyone engaged, the FAA and DOT at the highest levels, the equipment aircraft manufacturers, airlines and the telecoms. And I'm confident we'll soon have a clear set of objective criteria that allow a full rollout of 5G without significant impact to aviation.

雖然我希望它早點發生，但好消息是我們現在每個人都參與其中，最高級別的 FAA 和 DOT、設備飛機製造商、航空公司和電信公司。我相信我們很快就會有一套明確的客觀標準，允許全面推出 5G 而不會對航空產生重大影響。

I'll close this part of my comments by once again thanking the administration and Secretary Buttigieg, but also a particular thank you to the CEOs of AT&T and Verizon for voluntarily agreeing to these near-term restrictions near major airports.

我將再次感謝政府和部長 Buttigieg 來結束我的這部分評論，但還要特別感謝 AT&T 和 Verizon 的首席執行官自願同意主要機場附近的這些近期限制。

With that, I'll turn to discussing our results and outlook. Over the last year, the United team persevered through the impact of COVID, but also made incredible progress laying the foundation for the future. Omicron is, once again, impacting the near term. But as we've done since March 2020, we're taking action on capacity, and we remain confident in the long-term projections in spite of the near-term headwinds from Omicron.

有了這個，我將轉向討論我們的結果和前景。在過去的一年裡，曼聯隊在新冠病毒的影響下堅持了下來，但也取得了令人難以置信的進步，為未來奠定了基礎。 Omicron 再次對近期產生影響。但正如我們自 2020 年 3 月以來所做的那樣，我們正在對產能採取行動，儘管 Omicron 近期面臨不利因素，但我們仍對長期預測充滿信心。

But before we discuss our results and outlook, I want to take a minute to thank and brag about all that the people of United accomplished in 2021. In spite of the historic challenges, United came together as a team to get through the worst crisis in the history of aviation and set ourselves up to be the world's leading airline on the other side.

但在我們討論我們的結果和前景之前，我想花一點時間感謝和吹噓曼聯人民在 2021 年取得的所有成就。儘管面臨歷史性挑戰，曼聯作為一個團隊齊心協力度過了最嚴重的危機航空的歷史，讓我們自己成為世界領先的航空公司。

We saw our NPS improve by 30 points versus 2019 and introduced United Next to grow the airline and improve the product for customers. But we also made unique, real and structural changes to our process and technology, which we believe is going to lead to best-in-class CASM-ex performance once we have the full fleet return to service.

我們看到我們的 NPS 與 2019 年相比提高了 30 個百分點，並引入了 United Next 來發展航空公司並為客戶改進產品。但我們也對我們的流程和技術進行了獨特、真實和結構性的改變，我們相信一旦我們的機隊全部恢復服務，這將帶來一流的 CASM-ex 性能。

I think perhaps one of the least understood industry changes is that United is expecting to exit 2022 at a CASM-ex run rate below 2019, an expectation that sounds very different than most others in the industry. It is a transformational competitive change. So while we can't control the exact timing or course of COVID, we can improve the customer experience and control our costs. And that puts us in a completely different competitive position to outperform in the future.

我認為也許最不為人所知的行業變化之一是，美聯航預計將以低於 2019 年的 CASM-ex 運行率退出 2022 年，這一預期聽起來與業內大多數其他公司截然不同。這是一場變革性的競爭變革。因此，雖然我們無法控制 COVID 的確切時間或過程，但我們可以改善客戶體驗並控製成本。這使我們處於完全不同的競爭地位，以在未來表現出色。

In the short term, however, we're remaining responsive to the risk posed by the Omicron variant. Omicron is impacting demand in the near term, but the biggest impact of Omicron-fueled surge in COVID cases we've seen so far was on our people, and it led to a significant disruption in our operational performance over the holidays.

然而，在短期內，我們將繼續應對 Omicron 變體帶來的風險。 Omicron 在短期內會影響需求，但到目前為止，我們看到的由 Omicron 推動的 COVID 病例激增的最大影響是對我們的員工的影響，它導致我們在假期期間的運營表現受到嚴重干擾。

As tough as this period has been, I'm particularly grateful that, because of our vaccine requirement, we are no longer losing vaccinated employees to COVID, and we still don't have any vaccinated employees hospitalized. Our vaccine requirement has truly stabilized.

儘管這段時期很艱難，但我特別感謝由於我們的疫苗需求，我們不再因 COVID 而失去接種疫苗的員工，而且我們仍然沒有任何接種疫苗的員工住院。我們的疫苗需求已經真正穩定下來。

As we look to the remainder of 2022, Omicron is impacting near-term demand, and we're reducing our capacity as a result. But bookings continue to be strong for March and beyond, and our base case remains a continued recovery in demand, including international and business. Gerry and Andrew will give you more specifics on what we're changing this year on capacity. But the important point is we remain confident on the long-term CASM-ex target and future of United.

展望 2022 年剩餘時間，Omicron 正在影響近期需求，因此我們正在減少產能。但 3 月及以後的預訂繼續強勁，我們的基本情況仍然是需求持續復甦，包括國際和商業需求。 Gerry 和 Andrew 將為您詳細介紹我們今年在容量方面所做的更改。但重要的一點是，我們對曼聯的長期 CASM-ex 目標和未來充滿信心。

We believe and certainly hope that as a company and society, we are moving into the endemic stage of COVID. But we'll continue to manage as we have throughout the crisis and once again this quarter and be responsive to what actually happens instead of what we hope will happen.

我們相信並且當然希望作為一個公司和社會，我們正在進入 COVID 的流行階段。但我們將繼續像在整個危機期間以及本季度一樣進行管理，並對實際發生的事情做出反應，而不是我們希望發生的事情。

I'll close by once again thanking the United team. They've done amazing things since the crisis began, and they've laid the foundation for United to be the world's leading airline going forward. And now I'll hand it over to Brett.

我將再次感謝曼聯隊。自危機開始以來，他們做出了令人驚嘆的事情，為美聯航成為未來世界領先的航空公司奠定了基礎。現在我會把它交給布雷特。

Thanks, Scott. I'd like to start by thanking our employees for their hard work in the quarter. In the busiest travel season since the start of the pandemic, our team dealt with disruptions from weather events, changing international travel requirements and most recently, the impact from the Omicron variant. With Omicron impacting both our employees and the rest of the country over the holidays, our team pulled together to serve our customers, and we are grateful to them.

謝謝，斯科特。首先，我要感謝我們的員工在本季度的辛勤工作。在大流行開始以來最繁忙的旅行季節，我們的團隊處理了天氣事件造成的干擾、不斷變化的國際旅行要求以及最近 Omicron 變體的影響。由於 Omicron 在假期期間影響了我們的員工和全國其他地區，我們的團隊齊心協力為我們的客戶服務，我們對他們表示感謝。

As Scott mentioned, this latest variant has caused a delay in the expected recovery and is having an impact on bookings in the first quarter. However, we remain confident that travel will rebound quickly as cases subside. We expect a strong summer and second half of 2022, consistent with our expectations pre-Omicron.

正如斯科特所提到的，這種最新的變體導致了預期復甦的延遲，並對第一季度的預訂產生了影響。但是，我們仍然相信，隨著病例消退，旅行將迅速反彈。我們預計 2022 年夏季和下半年會表現強勁，這與我們在 Omicron 之前的預期一致。

While Andrew will outline the changes we've made in the near term on capacity in just a moment, we are confident and committed to our 2023 and 2026 financial targets. With our United Next network plans in mind, we look forward to hiring the next generation of United pilots.

雖然 Andrew 將在短時間內概述我們近期在產能方面所做的改變，但我們有信心並致力於實現 2023 年和 2026 年的財務目標。考慮到我們的 United Next 網絡計劃，我們期待僱用下一代 United 飛行員。

Next week, we'll host the grand opening of our United Aviate Academy in Goodyear, Arizona. We're excited about the role our world-class pilot training facility will play in recruiting and preparing the next generation of United pilots. In fact, we welcomed the inaugural class in December, which consists of 30 students, 80% of whom are women or people of color. In the near term, we are making sure we are fully staffed as this is critical to executing our plan as the recovery takes hold.

下週，我們將在亞利桑那州固特異舉辦聯合航空學院的盛大開幕式。我們對我們世界一流的飛行員培訓設施將在招募和培養下一代美聯航飛行員方面發揮的作用感到興奮。事實上，我們在 12 月迎來了就職班，該班由 30 名學生組成，其中 80% 是女性或有色人種。在短期內，我們將確保我們的人員配備齊全，因為這對於在復蘇過程中執行我們的計劃至關重要。

As difficult as the holidays were, we are returning to a normalized operation. We've taken additional steps to ensure that disruptions are minimized for our customers through capacity management and incentives.

儘管假期很艱難，但我們正在恢復正常運營。我們已採取額外措施，通過容量管理和激勵措施確保將客戶的中斷降至最低。

Regarding the current labor environment, while we have small pockets of hiring challenges, those do not currently impact our ability to operate the main line and are not impacting our capacity planning for 2022. We feel confident in our ability to achieve the level of hiring at United that supports the growth we are planning in the second half of 2022 and beyond.

關於當前的勞動力環境，雖然我們有少量招聘挑戰，但目前不會影響我們運營主線的能力，也不會影響我們 2022 年的產能規劃。我們對實現招聘水平的能力充滿信心支持我們計劃在 2022 年下半年及以後實現增長的聯合航空。

Despite Omicron's recent impact, we've achieved the highest-ever Net Promoter Score in our history, which is undoubtedly due to the team's service improvements and technological advancements that make flying with us easier than ever. A couple of examples.

儘管 Omicron 最近產生了影響，但我們還是取得了歷史上最高的淨推薦值，這無疑歸功於團隊的服務改進和技術進步，讓我們的飛行比以往任何時候都更容易。幾個例子。

This year, more than 760,000 customers have benefited from Connection Saver. And the percentage of customers that have misconnected in 2021 is the lowest since the merger. Our clubs in the U.S. are back, and we're ready for international travel to return as well, as this includes 6 Polaris Lounges. We've made it easier than ever to order onboard with our PayPal QR code. Also, our expanded beer, wine and snack offering is now available on nearly all flights over 2 hours.

今年，超過 760,000 名客戶受益於 Connection Saver。而 2021 年發生錯誤連接的客戶百分比是自合併以來的最低值。我們在美國的俱樂部又回來了，我們也準備好迎接國際旅行的回歸，因為這包括 6 個 Polaris 休息室。使用我們的 PayPal 二維碼，我們比以往任何時候都更容易在船上訂購。此外，我們擴展的啤酒、葡萄酒和小吃現在幾乎在所有 2 小時以上的航班上都有供應。

Gerry will provide greater detail on our 2022 costs, but our 2022 budget incorporates the elevated inflationary pressures seen by the rest of the country and fully reflects the labor expense we expect to incur in the year.

格里將提供更多關於我們 2022 年成本的詳細信息，但我們的 2022 年預算包含了該國其他地區所面臨的高通脹壓力，並充分反映了我們預計今年將產生的勞動力費用。

Importantly, the changes in our fleet and mix of flying are what give us the confidence that we will reach CASM-ex below 2019 by the fourth quarter of this year, putting us on track to achieve our long-term cost goals in the United Next plan.

重要的是，我們的機隊和飛行組合的變化讓我們有信心在今年第四季度之前達到 2019 年以下的 CASM-ex，使我們有望實現我們在 United Next 的長期成本目標計劃。

While the macro environment delayed the recovery, we continue to act on additional initiatives towards our goal to become 100% green by eliminating greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. United is now the largest airline to invest in zero-emission hydrogen electric engines for regional aircraft through a new equity stake in ZeroAvia, a leading company focused on hydrogen electric aviation solutions.

雖然宏觀環境延遲了復甦，但我們繼續採取其他舉措，實現我們的目標，即到 2050 年消除溫室氣體排放，實現 100% 的綠色環保。美聯航現在是最大的航空公司，通過以下方式投資用於支線飛機的零排放氫電動發動機ZeroAvia 的新股權，該公司是一家專注於氫電航空解決方案的領先公司。

We also announced the second round of corporate participants in our Eco-Skies Alliance program. We believe each of these initiatives, among others, further solidifies United's position as the industry leader in sustainability.

我們還宣布了生態天空聯盟計劃的第二輪企業參與者。我們相信，這些舉措中的每一項都進一步鞏固了美聯航作為可持續發展行業領導者的地位。

With 2021 behind us, we're responding to the near-term volatility with areas of the business we can control, while continuing to invest in our people and products as we plan for our United Next plan that will transform the airline in the coming years. And with that, I will now turn it over to Andrew to discuss the revenue environment.

隨著 2021 年的到來，我們正在通過我們可以控制的業務領域來應對近期的波動，同時繼續投資於我們的人員和產品，因為我們計劃在未來幾年改變航空公司的 United Next 計劃.有了這個，我現在將把它交給安德魯來討論收入環境。

Thanks, Brett. Total revenue for the fourth quarter finished at the high end of our range and down 25% on 23% less capacity versus fourth quarter of '19. TRASM in the quarter finished down 2.5% versus the same period.

謝謝，布雷特。第四季度的總收入達到了我們範圍的高端，與 19 年第四季度相比，產能減少了 23%，因此下降了 25%。該季度的 TRASM 與同期相比下跌了 2.5%。

We are pleased to reach the high end of our Q4 revenue guidance, but the Omicron variant did have around a 2-point negative impact on TRASM results and has delayed the anticipated demand and revenue recovery by a few months. Prior to Omicron, we were on track to deliver close to flat unit revenues in the fourth quarter of 2019 versus -- or fourth quarter versus 2019.

我們很高興達到第四季度收入指導的高端，但 Omicron 變體確實對 TRASM 業績產生了約 2 個百分點的負面影響，並將預期的需求和收入復甦推遲了幾個月。在 Omicron 之前，我們有望在 2019 年第四季度與 2019 年第四季度或第四季度與 2019 年相比實現接近持平的單位收入。

Just as in recent quarters, our cargo operation again delivered a record quarter for United. Total cargo revenue for the quarter was up 130% from the fourth quarter of '19 and finished the full year at $2.3 billion. Fourth quarter loyalty revenue and other revenue was up 3% in the third versus the fourth quarter of '19 to $518 million.

就像最近幾個季度一樣，我們的貨運業務再次為美聯航創造了創紀錄的季度。該季度的貨運總收入比 19 年第四季度增長了 130%，全年達到 23 億美元。第三季度忠誠度收入和其他收入與 19 年第四季度相比增長 3%，達到 5.18 億美元。

Now turning to our first quarter outlook. Leisure bookings and demand for late February and March are largely on track with our expectations. However, Omicron disrupted close-in leisure demand in January across most regions, and cancellations did increase. Bookings and cancellations are now starting to return to normal.

現在轉向我們的第一季度展望。 2 月下旬和 3 月的休閒預訂和需求基本符合我們的預期。然而，Omicron 在 1 月份擾亂了大多數地區的近距離休閒需求，取消訂單確實增加了。預訂和取消現在開始恢復正常。

Business demand fell sharply in January versus early December. Given business demand tends to book closer to the travel, we remain optimistic that we'll see a strong rebound as we progress through the quarter, although that's clearly linked to the virus.

與 12 月初相比，1 月份的商業需求急劇下降。鑑於業務需求往往在旅行附近預訂，我們仍然樂觀地認為，隨著我們整個季度的進展，我們將看到強勁的反彈，儘管這顯然與病毒有關。

Our revenue projections assume business demand rebounds by the end of February to where we were in early December or down approximately 40% versus the same period in 2019. Leisure demand trends that we've observed for travel later in the first quarter of 2022 have allowed us to manage our yield quality successfully versus our experience with the Delta variant surge.

我們的收入預測假設業務需求將在 2 月底反彈至 12 月初的水平，或與 2019 年同期相比下降約 40%。我們在 2022 年第一季度晚些時候觀察到的旅遊休閒需求趨勢允許我們成功地管理了我們的產量質量，而不是我們在 Delta 變體激增方面的經驗。

As a result, we remain optimistic that Omicron's impact, while significant, will be focused on January and February at this point. While we can't say if there will be additional widespread variants in the future, what we can say is that our expectation is that Omicron and each possible future variant will have a smaller and smaller impact on our revenue over time as compared to the impact from the Delta variant.

因此，我們仍然樂觀地認為，Omicron 的影響雖然顯著，但目前將集中在 1 月和 2 月。雖然我們不能說未來是否會有更多廣泛的變體，但我們可以說的是，我們的預期是，與影響相比，隨著時間的推移，Omicron 和每個可能的未來變體對我們的收入的影響會越來越小來自 Delta 變體。

We now expect total revenue in the first quarter of 2022 to be down 20% to 25% versus 1Q '19, with capacity down between 16% and 18%. We have moderated our capacity plans in Q1, reflecting the anticipated lower demand in the near term as a result of Omicron. Lower capacity in Q1, along with a more conservative outlook, results in our latest full year 2022 plan having lower capacity than 2019. This is down from the 5% growth versus '19 we expected back in October.

我們現在預計 2022 年第一季度的總收入將比 19 年第一季度下降 20% 至 25%，產能下降 16% 至 18%。我們在第一季度調整了產能計劃，反映了由於 Omicron 導致的近期需求下降。第一季度的產能下降以及更為保守的前景導致我們最新的 2022 年全年計劃的產能低於 2019 年。這低於我們在 10 月份預期的 19 年增長 5%。

We've moderated our 2022 capacity by lowering aircraft utilization and delaying the return to service of certain planes. Our grounded Pratt & Whitney 777 jets are now expected to fly again starting in March and then gradually reenter service fully by November.

我們通過降低飛機利用率和延遲某些飛機的恢復服務來緩和 2022 年的運力。我們停飛的普惠 777 噴氣式飛機現在預計將從 3 月開始再次飛行，然後在 11 月逐步全面重新投入服務。

We've also delayed the return of service of certain narrow-body jets into the second half of 2022 and lowered the planned utilization levels of our regional jets for the remainder of the year, addressing pilot shortages. These changes, typical mainline aircraft -- due to these changes, typical mainline aircraft utilization is expected to be well below normal until Q4 of 2022.

我們還將某些窄體飛機的恢復服務推遲到 2022 年下半年，並降低了今年剩餘時間支線飛機的計劃利用率水平，以解決飛行員短缺的問題。這些變化，典型的干線飛機——由於這些變化，預計到 2022 年第四季度，典型的干線飛機利用率將遠低於正常水平。

The phasing in of this idle capacity, particularly from larger jets and with lower utilization of RJs, will have a measurable impact on our gauge, ASM-ex and overall ASMs for each quarter of 2022, which Gerry will detail shortly.

逐步淘汰這種閒置產能，特別是來自大型噴氣式飛機和 RJ 利用率較低的產能，將對 2022 年每個季度我們的規格、ASM-ex 和整體 ASM 產生可衡量的影響，Gerry 將很快詳細說明。

We also continue to expect that our international long-haul flying will enter a strong period of margin improvement versus the last cycle as we enter the second half of '22. We expect that new capacity to Africa, India and the Middle East will mostly offset lower capacity to Asia for the foreseeable future.

隨著我們進入 22 年下半年，我們還繼續預計，與上一個週期相比，我們的國際長途飛行將進入利潤率大幅提升的時期。我們預計，在可預見的未來，非洲、印度和中東的新增產能將主要抵消亞洲產能的下降。

We continue to watch international demand carefully, but expect a recovery in close-in demand post-Omicron. The booking curve for the Atlantic proved shorter than usual in 2021, and we expect to have a same [record of] performance for 2022. As of now, bookings for the Atlantic for the peak travel season are on track, and we've seen some relaxation in border controls to Israel and England.

我們將繼續仔細觀察國際需求，但預計歐微米之後的近期需求將復蘇。事實證明，2021 年大西洋的預訂曲線比往常短，我們預計 2022 年的業績將保持不變。截至目前，大西洋旅遊旺季的預訂正在走上正軌，我們已經看到對以色列和英國的邊境管制有所放鬆。

We are working closely with our global partners as we build back our international network. And late last year, we announced a great new partnership with Virgin Australia. United is the leading U.S. carrier to Australia, and we believe this partnership will allow us to quickly and more profitably resume our flight schedule to Australia.

在重建我們的國際網絡時，我們正在與我們的全球合作夥伴密切合作。去年年底，我們宣布與維珍澳大利亞航空建立全新的合作夥伴關係。美聯航是飛往澳大利亞的領先美國航空公司，我們相信這種合作夥伴關係將使我們能夠更快、更有利地恢復飛往澳大利亞的航班時刻表。

We're on track to create the best onboard products by introducing the United signature interior. We've now taken delivery of 16 737 MAX 8s, with this interior. We're also making progress on our plan to modify the remainder of our narrow-body jets, so that by early '25, the entire mainline fleet will have this consistent and superior look and feel.

通過引入美聯航標誌性內飾，我們有望打造出最好的機上產品。我們現在已經接收了 16 架 737 MAX 8 飛機，採用這種內飾。我們還在修改其餘窄體噴氣式飛機的計劃方面取得進展，以便到 25 年初，整個乾線機隊將擁有這種一致和卓越的外觀和感覺。

Our future fleet will have an increased premium mix with premium seats per departure in North America up to 75% by 2026. It is worth noting that in the fourth quarter of '19, we've already started to produce new records in ancillary revenue generated by seat upgrades by our leisure customers.

到 2026 年，我們未來的機隊將增加高級組合，北美每次出發的高級座位將高達 75%。值得注意的是，在 19 年第四季度，我們已經開始創造新的輔助收入記錄由我們的休閒客戶升級座位。

This trend to sell in more premium products to leisure customers represents a meaningful amount of potential upside to our United Next revenue plans and can also help cushion the impact of business traffic in the event it [doesn't] fully return.

這種向休閒客戶銷售更多優質產品的趨勢代表了我們的 United Next 收入計劃的巨大潛在優勢，並且還可以幫助緩衝業務流量的影響，如果它[沒有]完全返回。

As several of our largest competitors have reduced the size of their business class cabin by about 10% on global long-haul flights, we expect that to continue. And as a result, there is a structural change that we see in the long-haul international service.

由於我們的幾家最大的競爭對手已將其全球長途航班的商務艙客艙尺寸縮小了約 10%，我們預計這種情況將繼續下去。因此，我們在長途國際服務中看到了結構性變化。

Late in 2021, we are pleased to be -- we were pleased to be recognized in the latest BTN survey completed by industry procurement leaders. These leaders clearly saw and rewarded our efforts to win their business, separating United from the bulk of the industry. We improved in every category, and we believe these results signify the hard work we're putting into winning an ever increasing share of their corporate business, which again is a core component of our United Next plan.

2021 年末，我們很高興——我們很高興在行業採購領導者完成的最新 BTN 調查中得到認可。這些領導者清楚地看到並獎勵了我們為贏得他們的業務所做的努力，將美聯航與整個行業分開。我們在每個類別中都取得了進步，我們相信這些結果表明我們為贏得越來越多的企業業務份額而付出的努力，這又是我們 United Next 計劃的核心組成部分。

Thanks to the entire United team. And with that, I'll hand it off to Gerry to discuss our financial results and outlook.

感謝整個曼聯團隊。有了這個，我會把它交給 Gerry 來討論我們的財務業績和前景。

Thanks, Andrew. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our first call of the new year. While we all would have preferred to be further along in the recovery, you will see from our results for 2021 and forecast for this year that we continue to make great progress and are well positioned to achieve the long-term goals we have discussed with you since last June.

謝謝，安德魯。大家早上好，歡迎來到我們新年的第一個電話。雖然我們都希望在復蘇中走得更遠，但您將從我們 2021 年的業績和今年的預測中看到，我們將繼續取得巨大進展，並有能力實現我們與您討論的長期目標從去年六月開始。

Turning to the numbers. For the full year 2021, we reported a pretax loss of $2.6 billion and an adjusted pretax loss of $5.8 billion. For the fourth quarter of 2021, we reported pretax loss of $845 million and an adjusted pretax loss of $679 million.

轉向數字。 2021 年全年，我們報告了 26 億美元的稅前虧損和 58 億美元的調整後稅前虧損。 2021 年第四季度，我們報告的稅前虧損為 8.45 億美元，調整後的稅前虧損為 6.79 億美元。

Our CASM-ex increased 13% on capacity down 23%, both versus the first -- fourth quarter of 2019. While CASM-ex was within our guidance range for the quarter, it was slightly higher than the midpoint as a result of Omicron-related expenses.

與 2019 年第一季度至第四季度相比，我們的 CASM-ex 增長了 13%，而產能下降了 23%。雖然 CASM-ex 在我們本季度的指導範圍內，但由於 Omicron- 的影響，它略高於中點相關費用。

Looking to the first quarter of 2022, there are 2 major factors impacting our CASM-ex. First, because of Omicron, as Andrew mentioned, we are adjusting capacity downwards to align with demand consistent with the agile pivoting we've done throughout the crisis.

展望 2022 年第一季度，有兩個主要因素影響我們的 CASM-ex。首先，正如安德魯所提到的，由於 Omicron，我們正在向下調整產能以符合與我們在整個危機期間所做的敏捷轉型相一致的需求。

Secondly, we currently expect that our 52 Pratt-powered 777s will mostly remain grounded through the first quarter. This reduction in flying keeps our aircraft utilization down about 16% in the first quarter versus 2019 and does drive additional cost and efficiency.

其次，我們目前預計，我們的 52 架由 Pratt 提供動力的 777 將在第一季度大部分保持停飛狀態。與 2019 年相比，飛行的減少使我們的飛機利用率在第一季度下降了約 16%，並且確實推動了額外的成本和效率。

First quarter 2022 capacity is expected to be down between 16% and 18%, with CASM-ex expected to be up between 14% and 15% versus the first quarter of 2019. The math associated with flying fewer ASMs than originally expected, together with the added Omicron-related expense, is driving around 3 points of expected CASM-ex pressure in the quarter.

與 2019 年第一季度相比，2022 年第一季度的運力預計將下降 16% 至 18%，CASM-ex 預計將增長 14% 至 15%。增加的與 Omicron 相關的費用，在本季度推動了大約 3 個點的預期 CASM-ex 壓力。

By the fourth quarter of 2022, however, our base case assumption is that we are past Omicron and flying a schedule with capacity up around 5% versus fourth quarter 2019. In this scenario, our utilization would reach near 2019 levels and gauge up about 16% versus the fourth quarter of 2019 and up 11 points versus the first quarter of this year, driven by the return of CASM-friendly 777s and the addition of 787s and larger 737 MAX aircraft.

然而，到 2022 年第四季度，我們的基本假設是，我們已經超過了 Omicron，並且按照計劃，產能比 2019 年第四季度增長了約 5%。在這種情況下，我們的利用率將接近 2019 年的水平，並達到約 16 % 與 2019 年第四季度相比，與今年第一季度相比增長了 11 個百分點，這得益於 CASM 友好型 777 的回歸以及 787 和更大的 737 MAX 飛機的增加。

These factors, together with the full run rate benefit of our identified $2.2 billion in structural cost reductions, which we expect to achieve by this summer, were driving material change in our CASM-ex performance over the course of the year from up 14% to 15% in the first quarter to down around 2% in the fourth quarter of this year in each case compared to 2019.

這些因素，加上我們確定的 22 億美元的結構性成本削減帶來的全部運行率收益（我們預計在今年夏天實現），推動我們的 CASM-ex 業績在一年中發生重大變化，從 14% 上升到與 2019 年相比，第一季度分別下降 15% 至今年第四季度下降約 2%。

As I mentioned, these figures represent our current base case assumption for our 2022 flying. But as Andrew outlined, we are committed to aligning our (multiple speakers), and we will continue to be flexible given the uncertainty around the pace of recovery. As a result of this uncertainty, we expect our CASM-ex results for the full year 2022 could fall anywhere in a range of scenarios.

正如我所提到的，這些數字代表了我們目前對 2022 年飛行的基本假設。但正如安德魯概述的那樣，我們致力於調整我們的（多位發言人），鑑於復蘇步伐的不確定性，我們將繼續保持靈活性。由於這種不確定性，我們預計我們 2022 年全年的 CASM-ex 業績可能會在各種情況下下降。

You may recall, in October, we said our planned capacity for 2022 would be up around 5% versus 2019, with CASM-ex lower than 2019. Our outlook on CASM-ex remains consistent with this prior outlook, though, since we now expect our capacity for the year to be below 2019 levels, we must adjust our CASM-ex to take into account the impact of fixed costs spread over fewer ASMs.

您可能還記得，在 10 月，我們曾表示，我們 2022 年的計劃產能將比 2019 年增加約 5%，CASM-ex 低於 2019 年。不過，我們對 CASM-ex 的展望與之前的展望保持一致，因為我們現在預計如果我們今年的產能低於 2019 年的水平，我們必須調整我們的 CASM-ex，以考慮到固定成本分佈在較少的 ASM 上的影響。

To provide some further bookends, if capacity for the year were about flat to 2019, we expect our CASM-ex would be up 2% to 3% versus 2019. If full year 2022 capacity is 5% below 2019, we expect our CASM-ex will be up about 5% versus 2019. We believe our results will land between those figures on a full year basis.

為了提供一些進一步的書擋，如果今年的產能與 2019 年基本持平，我們預計我們的 CASM-ex 將比 2019 年增長 2% 至 3%。如果 2022 年全年產能比 2019 年低 5%，我們預計我們的 CASM- ex 將比 2019 年增長約 5%。我們相信我們的全年業績將落在這些數字之間。

Most importantly, we expect CASM-ex to improve throughout the year as our gauge and aircraft utilization materially improve in the second half and expect to end the year with CASM-ex below 2019 levels, as I noted earlier. Most importantly, the fourth quarter expected run rate for CASM-ex will put us well on track for our United Next cost plan for 2023 and beyond.

最重要的是，我們預計 CASM-ex 將在今年全年有所改善，因為我們的機位和飛機利用率在下半年大幅改善，並預計年底 CASM-ex 將低於 2019 年的水平，正如我之前指出的那樣。最重要的是，CASM-ex 第四季度的預期運行率將使我們在 2023 年及以後的 United Next 成本計劃上步入正軌。

Turning to fleet. We currently expect to take delivery of 53 737 MAX aircraft and 8 787 aircraft during the year. As we noted on our previous earnings calls, these 787 aircraft were originally expected to deliver in the first half of 2021.

轉向艦隊。我們目前預計年內將接收 53 737 MAX 飛機和 8 787 飛機。正如我們在之前的財報電話會議中指出的那樣，這些 787 飛機最初預計將在 2021 年上半年交付。

We now no longer expect to take these 787 aircraft until after the summer of 2022, contributing to about 1.5 points less capacity versus our original plan. Given this timing, we now expect our adjusted CapEx in 2022 to be around $4.2 billion, plus about $1.7 billion of adjusted CapEx that moved out of '21 into 2022 for a total of about $5.9 billion for the full year.

我們現在不再期望在 2022 年夏季之後才能使用這些 787 飛機，與我們最初的計劃相比，運力減少了約 1.5 個百分點。鑑於這個時機，我們現在預計 2022 年調整後的資本支出約為 42 億美元，加上從 21 年到 2022 年調整後的資本支出約 17 億美元，全年總計約 59 億美元。

To be clear, our total adjusted CapEx plan for the years 2021 and 2022 together have not changed since June of last year. There has simply been a timing shift driven by aircraft delivery delays. We continue to expect to use a mix of debt financing, leases and cash to fund the acquisition of new aircraft depending on market conditions while tracking towards our United Next leverage target.

需要明確的是，自去年 6 月以來，我們 2021 年和 2022 年的總調整資本支出計劃並沒有改變。只是由於飛機交付延遲而發生了時間變化。我們繼續預計將根據市場情況使用債務融資、租賃和現金的組合來為新飛機的收購提供資金，同時跟踪我們的 United Next 槓桿目標。

Importantly, we ended 2021 with over $20 billion in liquidity, including our undrawn revolver, a strong cash position to continue to navigate the remainder of the crisis.

重要的是，我們在 2021 年結束時擁有超過 200 億美元的流動性，包括我們未動用的左輪手槍，這是一個強大的現金頭寸，可以繼續度過危機的剩餘時間。

In closing, I'd like to thank my finance team as they have worked countless hours over the last 2 years to create and manage a flexible financial plan in response to a quickly evolving environment. We will continue to focus on appropriately managing our capacity and rebuilding our business back efficiently.

最後，我要感謝我的財務團隊，因為他們在過去 2 年中付出了無數個小時來創建和管理靈活的財務計劃，以應對快速變化的環境。我們將繼續專注於適當管理我們的產能並有效地重建我們的業務。

We've observed that the impact of each variant on our business has decreased with each iteration. And we continue to expect COVID-19 to become endemic in the future. We remain confident in our 2023 and 2026 United Next financial targets and our trajectory to maximize earnings power for the long term in the coming years. And with that, I'll pass it back to Kristina to start the Q&A.

我們觀察到，每個變體對我們業務的影響隨著每次迭代而減少。我們繼續預計 COVID-19 將在未來流行。我們對 2023 年和 2026 年 United Next 的財務目標以及未來幾年實現長期盈利能力最大化的軌跡充滿信心。有了這個，我會把它傳回給 Kristina 開始問答。

Thank you, Gerry. We will now take questions from the analyst community. (Operator Instructions) Brandon, please describe the procedure to ask a question.

謝謝你，格里。我們現在將回答分析師社區的問題。 （操作員說明）布蘭登，請描述提問的程序。

(Operator Instructions) And from MKM Partners, we have Conor Cunningham.

（操作員說明）來自 MKM Partners，我們有 Conor Cunningham。

When we think about United and the opportunity set that's ahead of you, international -- the international landscape is clearly what people talk about the most as the pandemic looks to sputter out. Just curious on -- your expectations have changed in terms of pent-up demand for international.

當我們想到曼聯和擺在你面前的機會時，國際 - 國際形勢顯然是人們談論最多的話題，因為大流行似乎即將結束。只是好奇——你的期望在被壓抑的國際需求方面發生了變化。

Clearly, Asia is going to be -- going to take some time. But the European countries right now are starting to quickly ease restrictions as cases decline, which is super bullish for just the spring and summer demand time frame. So just curious on how things have changed from a high level from your thought process.

顯然，亞洲將需要一些時間。但隨著病例的減少，歐洲國家現在開始迅速放寬限制，這對於春季和夏季的需求時間框架來說是非常樂觀的。所以只是好奇從你的思維過程中，事情是如何從高層次上發生變化的。

Thanks, Conor. It's Andrew. It's a really good question, and it's something we strongly believe in based on everything we've seen. We've definitely pointed a lot of incremental capacity across the Atlantic for this spring and summer in anticipation of this recovery.

謝謝，康納。是安德魯。這是一個非常好的問題，基於我們所看到的一切，我們堅信這一點。我們已經明確指出，今年春季和夏季整個大西洋將增加大量產能，以期待這種複蘇。

I can tell you, in fact, we're booked ahead from a passenger and revenue perspective on those flights this spring and summer already. And so we're ready to get flying. We do need to get past this latest Omicron wave, but we feel really good about the future.

我可以告訴你，事實上，從乘客和收入的角度來看，我們已經提前預訂了今年春季和夏季的這些航班。所以我們已經準備好起飛了。我們確實需要克服這一最新的 Omicron 浪潮，但我們對未來感覺非常好。

And more importantly, we kept all of our wide-body jets in our fleet. We continue to modify them with the new business class cabins, so we have a consistent product across the range of our aircraft. And we operate from the best gateways in the United States, bar none. So we do believe very strongly that there is tremendous international growth opportunity in front of us.

更重要的是，我們將所有寬體噴氣式飛機保留在我們的機隊中。我們繼續使用新的商務艙客艙對其進行修改，因此我們在我們的飛機範圍內擁有一致的產品。我們從美國最好的門戶運營，沒有之一。因此，我們非常堅信擺在我們面前的是巨大的國際增長機會。

We also believe that there's been significant structural changes. Smaller business class cabins coming in from the United States and in fact, fewer flights. Many of those larger A380s and 747s have been retired by our competitors. And this sets us up incredibly well for the future year.

我們還認為，結構性發生了重大變化。來自美國的更小的商務艙客艙，事實上，更少的航班。許多較大的 A380 和 747 已被我們的競爭對手淘汰。這讓我們為未來的一年做好了非常好的準備。

I have to admit, we can't be -- we're very bullish about the Atlantic in particular. And as you stated, Asia is going to be slower to come back. We look forward to coming back in full force. But we have redeployed our planes for the foreseeable future to other regions of the world in anticipation of a slower recovery in Asia. So we think we have that from a revenue and P&L point of view under control as well. So really bullish about the future when it comes to international growth. And United's potential in that arena, we think, is superior to all of our competition.

我不得不承認，我們不能——我們特別看好大西洋。正如你所說，亞洲的回歸速度會慢一些。我們期待著全力回歸。但在可預見的未來，我們已經將我們的飛機重新部署到世界其他地區，因為預計亞洲的複蘇將放緩。因此，我們認為從收入和損益的角度來看，我們也可以控制這一點。因此，在國際增長方面，我們非常看好未來。我們認為，曼聯在這個領域的潛力要優於我們所有的競爭對手。

Okay. Great. And then when you embarked on the mid-con strategy and laid out United MAX, loyalty was a huge component of that. And right or wrong, I think a lot of investors view airline loyalty as just one big pie.

好的。偉大的。然後，當您開始實施中期戰略並製定 United MAX 時，忠誠度是其中的重要組成部分。不管對錯，我認為很多投資者都將航空公司忠誠度視為一大塊蛋糕。

So just curious if you could talk about how new sign-ups or maybe unique sign-ups have been for the loyalty program or credit card or if you have any conversion figures from other airlines that United has seen as the operations improved over the years and so on.

因此，只是想知道您是否可以談論忠誠度計劃或信用卡的新註冊或獨特註冊，或者您是否有任何其他航空公司的轉換數據，這些數據是美聯航多年來看到的運營改善，並且很快。

Sure. We signed up 5.6 million new MileagePlus members this year, which is a record for the airline. We are really pleased by that, and it shows the growth and the prosperity in the program. And people want to be part of that program and be part of United. So we don't think it could be any better.

當然。今年我們新註冊了 560 萬前程萬里 (MileagePlus) 會員，這是該航空公司的記錄。我們對此感到非常高興，這顯示了該計劃的成長和繁榮。人們希望成為該計劃的一部分並成為曼聯的一部分。所以我們認為它不會更好。

In terms of credit card acquisitions, new accounts, we are up in the second half of this year versus where we were in 2019. So that's going incredibly well as well. So we couldn't -- we're really optimistic about those particular numbers.

在信用卡收購、新賬戶方面，與 2019 年相比，我們在今年下半年有所上升。所以這也非常順利。所以我們不能 - 我們對這些特定數字非常樂觀。

And particularly, with the new members, just a few years ago, we were doing 2.5 million to 3 million new members per year, and now we're up to 5.6. I think it's a great tribute to United, where we fly, our brand, our customers are more and more interested in joining the MileagePlus program.

特別是對於新成員，就在幾年前，我們每年增加 250 萬到 300 萬新成員，而現在我們達到了 5.6 個。我認為這是對美聯航的極大致敬，我們飛往的地方、我們的品牌、我們的客戶對加入前程萬里 (MileagePlus) 計劃越來越感興趣。

From JPMorgan, we have Jamie Baker.

在摩根大通，我們有 Jamie Baker。

So the strength in premium leisure is obviously an important topic, but there's some debate as to its sustainability. Our consumer is permanently creating a better flight experience and therefore, they'll refuse to ever return to the back of the cabin or if it's just a temporary phenomenon driven by pent-up demand.

因此，高端休閒的力量顯然是一個重要的話題，但關於其可持續性存在一些爭論。我們的消費者一直在創造更好的飛行體驗，因此，如果這只是被壓抑的需求驅動的暫時現象，他們將拒絕返回機艙後部。

So to the extent that it is the former, are you seeing this elsewhere across the travel ribbon? I mean, for example, are club memberships showing commensurate strength? Are new card acquisitions skewing to the Infinity card? I'm just wondering how broad the evidence is supporting the thesis that a large segment of your consumers are truly pursuing a better overall experience.

因此，就前者而言，您是否在旅行帶的其他地方看到了這一點？我的意思是，例如，俱樂部成員是否表現出相應的實力？新卡收購是否偏向於 Infinity 卡？我只是想知道證據支持的論點有多廣泛，即大部分消費者真正追求更好的整體體驗。

Well, Jamie, what I think I would say is we're going to need some time to prove that out. I think it is somewhat debatable. We feel really good about it. I mean the numbers have been incredibly strong. Our seat product upgrades in this last quarter have never been higher. And that's even before we begin to transform into the United Next fleet, which has more premium seats onboard the aircraft.

好吧，傑米，我想我想說的是我們需要一些時間來證明這一點。我認為這有點值得商榷。我們對此感覺非常好。我的意思是這些數字非常強大。我們在上個季度的座椅產品升級從未如此之高。這甚至在我們開始轉型為 United Next 機隊之前，該機隊在飛機上擁有更多高級座位。

And we feel really strongly about segmenting our business and giving people a choice about where they want to sit on the airplane and what experience they want throughout the entire travel journeys. Everybody deserves that choice, and if we're going to do it, we're going to do it great.

我們對細分我們的業務並讓人們選擇他們想坐在飛機上的哪個位置以及他們在整個旅行旅程中想要什麼樣的體驗感到非常強烈。每個人都應該得到這樣的選擇，如果我們要這樣做，我們就會做得很好。

In terms of club memberships, what I would tell you is the bulk of our club memberships come through our premium card through the co-brand portfolio. So it will be hard to measure that because we've introduced 2 new lower tier cards in recent years. So the numbers are skewed by our new Gateway Card, for example.

就俱樂部會員資格而言，我要告訴您的是，我們的大部分俱樂部會員資格是通過我們的高級卡通過聯合品牌組合獲得的。所以很難衡量這一點，因為我們近年來推出了 2 種新的低等級卡。例如，這些數字被我們的新網關卡所扭曲。

So it's a little bit more difficult to particularly answer that question right now. But we've now seen this for 2 quarters in a row, a really strong premium leisure demand. Everything we see in the first quarter, I would say, the same is true. And we also see that in the business class cabin going to and from Europe, where the performance there has been good.

所以現在要特別回答這個問題有點困難。但我們現在已經連續兩個季度看到這種情況，這是一個非常強勁的高端休閒需求。我想說，我們在第一季度看到的一切都是如此。我們也看到，在往返歐洲的商務艙中，那裡的表現一直不錯。

And the other thing I'll tell you is that, while clearly PRASM has been down throughout this crisis, PRASM domestically in our premium cabins is almost flat, whereas the number in total in terms of PRASM. So again, that's a remarkable number as we go through this crisis in terms of premium demand in my opinion.

我要告訴你的另一件事是，雖然 PRASM 在整個危機期間明顯下降，但我們高級客艙的國內 PRASM 幾乎持平，而 PRASM 的總數。因此，在我看來，就保費需求而言，這是一個了不起的數字，因為我們正在經歷這場危機。

Well, Andrew, as a follow-up to that, so a question on pricing. It feels like the booking curve for consumers is increasingly similar to what corporate used to look like. So consumers are booking closer in, but it feels like business travelers are now booking further out.

好吧，安德魯，作為後續行動，關於定價的問題。感覺消費者的預訂曲線越來越類似於企業過去的樣子。因此，消費者預訂的距離更近，但感覺商務旅客現在預訂的距離更遠。

First, is that a fair characterization? And two, do you think you could still achieve pre-COVID corporate yields? Are sufficient fare fences in place? Or does a further booking corporate buyer imply lower yields? I guess that's the question.

首先，這是一個公平的描述嗎？第二，您認為您仍然可以實現 COVID 之前的企業收益率嗎？是否有足夠的票價圍欄？或者進一步預訂企業買家是否意味著較低的收益率？我想這就是問題所在。

Some of that's TBD, to be honest. What I would say is that business traffic is down substantially. It had improved quite a bit where we were in the [fourth] quarter last year. And so the booking curves are, I think, a little bit unreliable from where will they be 2, 3 or 4 months from now.

老實說，其中一些是待定的。我想說的是，商業流量大幅下降。它在我們去年[第四]季度的情況下有了很大的改善。因此，我認為預訂曲線有點不可靠，從現在起 2 個月、3 個月或 4 個月它們會在哪裡。

So I think we just have to wait a little bit longer than that. And until demand -- and really demand goes back to some level of normalcy across all those channels, the yield calculations are just going to be a little bit differently.

所以我認為我們只需要再等一會兒。直到需求——並且真正的需求在所有這些渠道中恢復到某種程度的正常水平，收益率計算只會有點不同。

What I would say is that, particularly with business traffic and total business -- our total traffic, we've seen a remarkable comeback already in week 3 of the year versus where we were in week 1 of the year for total bookings and for business bookings. So we're well on our way.

我想說的是，特別是在業務流量和總業務量方面——我們的總流量，我們已經在今年的第 3 週看到了顯著的回升，而我們在今年的第 1 週的總預訂量和業務量預訂。所以我們進展順利。

And I think we're going to see things return to normal from a booking perspective, I would hope sometime in mid-February. And cancellation rates early this week are actually already back to more or less 2019 standards. So things have moved dramatically just in the last 2.5, 3 weeks.

我認為從預訂的角度來看，我們會看到一切恢復正常，我希望在 2 月中旬的某個時候。本週早些時候的取消率實際上已經或多或少回到了 2019 年的標準。因此，就在過去的 2.5、3 週內，事情發生了巨大的變化。

From Raymond James, we have Savi Syth.

來自 Raymond James，我們有 Savi Syth。

Just curious on the cargo revenue side, that's held in well, I'm guessing better than what you would have expected earlier in 2021. And there seems to be a lot of dedicated [company] capacity coming on. So I'm not sure -- it seems to be making up for lost belly space. I was curious if you -- what you expect in terms of cargo revenue trends for this year and maybe if there's any kind of structurally something changed longer term.

只是對貨運收入感到好奇，這很好，我猜這比你在 2021 年早些時候的預期要好。而且似乎有很多專門的 [公司] 運力即將到來。所以我不確定——它似乎正在彌補失去的腹部空間。我很好奇您是否-您對今年貨運收入趨勢的期望，以及長期來看是否有任何結構上的變化。

Sure, I'll try to take that. I think what we're seeing is there's been a disruption in supply chains around the globe. And so the use of air freight has increased or the need for it has increased relative to the amount of capacity available, and that's caused yields to go up.

當然，我會嘗試接受它。我認為我們看到的是全球供應鏈出現了中斷。因此，相對於可用運力，空運的使用增加了，或者對空運的需求增加了，這導致收益上升。

As we look into Q1, I think those trends are pretty similar. And in fact, we expect our Q1 performance this year to be in excess of our Q1 performance last year, but it's still early in the quarter obviously driven by these strong yields.

當我們研究第一季度時，我認為這些趨勢非常相似。事實上，我們預計今年第一季度的業績將超過去年第一季度的業績，但顯然在這些強勁收益率的推動下，仍處於本季度初期。

So I -- and if you talk to our cargo team, they would tell you that the supply chain disruptions, the backups at the ports, these things look likely to continue to some degree for the foreseeable future as we head into 2022. So we're optimistic that cargo is going to have another great year. And kudos to our entire cargo team because the numbers we are putting up relative to our competition are just staggering.

所以我——如果你和我們的貨運團隊交談，他們會告訴你，供應鏈中斷、港口的備份，隨著我們進入 2022 年，在可預見的未來，這些事情看起來可能會在一定程度上持續下去。所以我們'樂觀地認為貨運將有另一個偉大的一年。並且對我們整個貨運團隊表示敬意，因為我們相對於我們的競爭對手提出的數字只是驚人的。

Good point. Along the lines of kind of something changing near term, like the cuts to service and kind of some of the small markets, the small markets was a big push for United not long ago. Do you see this kind of issue resolving itself as you get into 2023 or something? Or is there kind of a need to change strategy here, at least when it comes to the regional operation of small market operations?

好點子。考慮到近期發生的一些變化，比如削減服務和一些小市場，不久前，小市場對曼聯來說是一個巨大的推動力。當您進入 2023 年之類的時候，您是否看到這種問題會自行解決？或者說這裡需要改變策略，至少在小市場運營的區域運營方面是這樣？

Sure. I'll try to take that. I'm taking all the questions here. I need to hand out a few questions to my colleagues. But we -- first of all, what I would say is that as we take away service from small communities, we're disappointed to do that.

當然。我會努力接受的。我在這裡回答所有問題。我需要向我的同事提出幾個問題。但是我們——首先，我要說的是，當我們從小社區拿走服務時，我們對這樣做感到失望。

We know the impact on these communities. And we alert them ahead of time, and we know it's a big deal. And we've already cut service to 20 communities in the United States in the last few months. Again, we know that's a really big deal.

我們知道對這些社區的影響。我們會提前提醒他們，我們知道這很重要。在過去的幾個月裡，我們已經削減了對美國 20 個社區的服務。同樣，我們知道這非常重要。

However, we are facing a pilot shortage on our regional aircraft, not on our mainline aircraft. And we expect that pilot shortage to continue for a while, including for the rest of 2022. So we do expect, unfortunately, there will be a few more communities that we will have to remove from the network. We're still working out those details. And we have a lot of aircraft that we will underutilize for the foreseeable future. But that's kind of where we are.

然而，我們的支線飛機面臨飛行員短缺，而不是我們的干線飛機。我們預計試點短缺將持續一段時間，包括 2022 年剩餘時間。因此，我們確實預計，不幸的是，我們將不得不從網絡中刪除更多的社區。我們仍在研究這些細節。在可預見的未來，我們有很多飛機將未被充分利用。但這就是我們所處的位置。

In terms of our business plan, when we talked about the United Next business plan, just about 7 months ago, we had already kind of recognized these trends. We had already planned to reduce the number of RJs in our fleet, and what's happening is an acceleration of these plans. But from a revenue perspective, this has all been accounted for.

在我們的商業計劃方面，大約 7 個月前，當我們談到 United Next 商業計劃時，我們已經有點認識到這些趨勢。我們已經計劃減少我們機隊中 RJ 的數量，現在正在加速這些計劃。但從收入的角度來看，這一切都已被考慮在內。

And unfortunately, from an internal planning perspective, what we're seeing on the RJ pilot shortage is an acceleration. And what happens to the community we serve is an acceleration, but it is not unexpected for what we're really going to deal with over the next year or 2.

不幸的是，從內部規劃的角度來看，我們看到的 RJ 飛行員短缺正在加速。我們所服務的社區所發生的事情是加速，但對於我們在未來一兩年內真正要處理的事情並不意外。

From Bernstein, we have David Vernon.

來自伯恩斯坦，我們有大衛弗農。

Gerry, I wanted -- I was wondering if you could help us think about kind of the exit rate of CASM-ex. It sounds like it's going to be much better than the start of the year because of some gauge increases. Can you talk about sequentially how gauge is increasing? And kind of that -- what's a good foundation on which to start building out a CASM outlook for 2023?

格里，我想 -- 我想知道你是否可以幫助我們考慮一下 CASM-ex 的退出率。聽起來這會比年初好得多，因為一些規格增加了。你能按順序談談gauge是如何增加的嗎？諸如此類——開始構建 2023 年 CASM 前景的良好基礎是什麼？

Because I know there's the growth we're getting sequentially in the volume recovery, just trying to separate out how much of that is not sort of volume dependent, how much of that is coming out of gauge.

因為我知道我們在銷量恢復中連續增長，只是試圖區分其中有多少與數量無關，有多少是超出規格的。

So good question. We've been clear since last June that one of the benefits that's really, in some ways, unique to United with our United Next Plan is the increase in gauge. We've been under-gauged on the mainline. And the MAX order, particularly when the MAX 10s start next year, will help solve that problem. So we will provide going to next year additional color on gauge.

這麼好的問題。自去年 6 月以來，我們一直很清楚，在某些方面，通過我們的 United Next 計劃，United 真正獨特的好處之一就是增加了機距。我們在主線上被低估了。而 MAX 訂單，尤其是明年 MAX 10 上市時，將有助於解決這個問題。因此，我們將在明年提供額外的儀表顏色。

This year, just from the first quarter to the fourth quarter, we expect an 11% improvement in gauge and then more going into next year. But we'll continue to give you those numbers. But as we've been saying for the last 6 months, one of the great advantages we have and one of the reasons why we're so comfortable with our CASM guidance for next year is that, as we said, it's just math.

今年，僅從第一季度到第四季度，我們預計規格將有 11% 的改善，明年還會有更多改善。但我們將繼續為您提供這些數字。但正如我們在過去 6 個月中所說的那樣，我們擁有的一大優勢以及我們對明年的 CASM 指導如此滿意的原因之一是，正如我們所說，這只是數學。

Yes. So sequentially, as we go through the quarters, is there an inflection point when that gauge really kind of pops up tied to deliveries or schedule change (multiple speakers)?

是的。因此，當我們經歷季度時，是否存在一個拐點，當該指標真的與交付或時間表更改（多個發言人）相關時彈出？

Yes, so -- well, two things. One, the 777s won't start impacting us until the second quarter. And then the 8 787s, which are still hanging out there, that will be a second half as well as the 53 MAXes effectively all in the second half of the year -- most -- the vast majority in the second half of the year. So there is a huge difference between the first half and second half on gauge.

是的，所以——嗯，有兩件事。一，777 直到第二季度才會開始影響我們。然後是 8 787，仍然掛在那裡，這將是下半年以及 53 MAX 在下半年有效 - 大多數 - 在下半年的絕大多數。所以上半場和下半場在規格上存在巨大差異。

All right. That's super helpful. And then one last one for me. The other OpEx line kind of bumped up sequentially $220 million some odd a quarter for the last 2 quarters. Are we at a budget level of around [1 4] per quarter for that other OpEx line? Or how should we be thinking about that number?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後是我的最後一個。在過去的兩個季度中，另一條運營支出線每季度增加了 2.2 億美元。對於其他運營支出線，我們是否處於每季度 [1 4] 左右的預算水平？或者我們應該如何考慮這個數字？

We're getting to 80%, 85% of 2019 levels of cost on that line. And I'm just wondering if there's structural take out, I would assume some of that's in there. Like what absolute number for that other OpEx line should we be looking at for 2022 per quarter?

我們將在這條線上達到 2019 年成本水平的 80%、85%。我只是想知道是否有結構性取出，我會假設其中有一些。比如我們應該在 2022 年每季度查看其他運營支出線的絕對數字是多少？

Yes, I think you've -- we've hit about the right run rate within a couple of hundred million dollars.

是的，我認為你已經 - 我們在幾億美元內達到了正確的運行率。

From Cowen and Company, we have Helane Becker.

來自 Cowen and Company，我們有 Helane Becker。

So oil prices have gone up over $85. And I know there's going to be a lot of fuel efficiency with the newer aircraft that are coming in. But how should we think about the way you're thinking about fuel vis-a-vis pricing and the lag between the 2?

因此，油價上漲了 85 美元以上。而且我知道新飛機的燃油效率將會大大提高。但是我們應該如何考慮您考慮燃油相對於定價的方式以及兩者之間的滯後？

Sure, Helane. I'll start. Traditionally, I think we had gotten to the point where we had a high degree of confidence that fuel is a pass-through. And I've said that many times in the past, and I continue to believe that.

當然，海倫。我會開始的。傳統上，我認為我們已經到了高度相信燃料是一種傳遞的地步。過去我已經說過很多次了，我仍然相信這一點。

During the crisis, with the supply/demand equation quite out of balance, I think that has got out of balance. But as we look into Q2 and beyond, based on what we think is going to happen to demand and where we see supply, hopefully those relationships come back into place.

在危機期間，供需平衡完全失衡，我認為這已經失衡。但是，當我們展望第二季度及以後，根據我們認為將發生的需求以及我們看到供應的情況，希望這些關係能夠恢復原狀。

And we'll continue to make agile decisions on utilization of the fleet, given what the price of fuel is like we always have done in the past. So I feel like we need a little bit more time to prove back that the equation is still valid, but we're well on our way.

考慮到我們過去一直在做的燃料價格，我們將繼續就車隊的利用做出靈活的決策。所以我覺得我們需要更多時間來證明這個等式仍然有效，但我們正在順利進行。

Okay. And then my other question is I don't know how to think about this, but I know Asia traffic is not coming back anytime soon, but there's a lot of cargo that you can do in that market. So it makes sense to have capacity there.

好的。然後我的另一個問題是我不知道如何考慮這個問題，但我知道亞洲的交通不會很快恢復，但在那個市場你可以做很多貨物。因此，在那裡擁有容量是有意義的。

But when you think about what the Chinese are doing, I mean, I feel like they're in violation of the bilateral agreement that they signed. And I'm kind of wondering if after -- if part of what they're doing in not allowing you your full complement of flights has to do with the Olympics versus them being difficult with quarantine rules and so on. So that as you think about rebuilding Asia, China is not on the list of countries beyond maybe 1 or 2 cities and you think about like the rest of Southeast Asia. So not sure who should answer that.

但是當你想到中國人在做什麼時，我的意思是，我覺得他們違反了他們簽署的雙邊協議。而且我有點想知道，如果他們在不允許您的全部航班上所做的部分原因與奧運會有關，而他們在隔離規則方面遇到困難等等。因此，當您考慮重建亞洲時，中國不在可能超過 1 或 2 個城市的國家名單上，您會像東南亞其他國家一樣思考。所以不確定誰應該回答這個問題。

Well, I'll start, Helane, and then let Andrew talk about our specific plans. But what I'd say is on the Asia restrictions, look, governments around the world are all doing their best to manage COVID, and that restrictions are constantly changing. They've had a different set of standards in China, a different approach than some of the Westerns.

好吧，我先開始，Helane，然後讓 Andrew 談談我們的具體計劃。但我要說的是亞洲限制，你看，世界各國政府都在盡最大努力管理 COVID，而且限制在不斷變化。他們在中國有一套不同的標準，與一些西方人不同的方法。

But I don't think there's anything bigger to read into it, other than different countries are all feeling their way in an uncertain environment. So I wouldn't read any kind of macro geopolitical questions into it. And then I'll turn it back to Andrew to talk about sort of what our plans for aircraft and timing are.

但我認為沒有什麼比這更重要的了，除了不同的國家都在一個不確定的環境中摸索著自己的方式。所以我不會讀到任何宏觀的地緣政治問題。然後我將把它轉回給 Andrew 來談談我們對飛機和時間安排的計劃。

The only thing I would add is that we recognize that [ages] seems to be -- will have a slower recovery. And we have moved those aircraft elsewhere in the world, and we believe they're going to be really productive where we've moved them to. And we look forward to resuming our full schedule to Japan and China at some point in the future when we can.

我要補充的唯一一件事是，我們認識到 [年齡] 似乎 - 將恢復較慢。我們已經將這些飛機轉移到了世界其他地方，我們相信它們將在我們將它們轉移到的地方非常高效。我們期待著在未來的某個時候，我們能夠恢復我們在日本和中國的全部行程。

From Evercore ISI, we have Duane Pfennigwerth.

來自 Evercore ISI，我們有 Duane Pfennigwerth。

I wanted to ask you a couple of questions. One, just on changeability, which is probably where the industry was headed anyway, and you can refresh our recollection there. But obviously, we're in a weird time still. It's improving, but it's a weird time.

我想問你幾個問題。一，只是關於可變性，這可能是行業的發展方向，你可以在那裡刷新我們的記憶。但顯然，我們仍處於一個奇怪的時期。它正在改善，但這是一個奇怪的時期。

But there is an impact on operations and perhaps call center resources and things of that sort with respect to changeability. So are you guys thinking at all about that kind of over the intermediate term? Again, in a more normal demand environment, is some of the pure kind of frictionless changeability maybe too much of a strain to support?

但是對於運營，可能還有呼叫中心資源以及與可變性相關的類似事物都會產生影響。那麼你們在中期考慮過這種情況嗎？再說一次，在一個更正常的需求環境中，一些純粹的無摩擦可變性是否可能過於緊張而無法支持？

Well, I think the way I would describe that is, we've made a number of changes as we've dealt with this crisis, including the elimination of change fees themselves. And that, we think, was the right thing to do. We should have done it years ago, quite frankly. We wish we had done it years ago.

好吧，我想我要描述的方式是，我們在處理這場危機時做出了許多改變，包括取消變更費本身。我們認為，這是正確的做法。坦率地說，我們應該在幾年前就這樣做。我們希望我們在幾年前就做到了。

And so we don't think that's going to change or at least United, we are where we are. And we've adjusted our resources to make sure we can deal with that. Our customers now have the ability to make more changes than they did in the past and are doing so. And we're kind of pleased to let that happen.

所以我們認為這不會改變，或者至少曼聯，我們現在就在哪裡。我們已經調整了我們的資源，以確保我們能夠處理這個問題。我們的客戶現在有能力做出比過去更多的改變，而且他們正在這樣做。我們很高興讓這種情況發生。

And we think it's a great feature for us, and it's going to help us with our relative competitive stance versus other carriers in the country, which, again, we needed to do long ago, it's about time, and we're fully committed to it.

而且我們認為這對我們來說是一個很棒的功能，它將幫助我們保持與該國其他運營商的相對競爭地位，這也是我們很久以前需要做的，現在是時候了，我們完全致力於它。

I appreciate those thoughts. I wondered if there wasn't maybe a fair category or something like that, not that you'd tell me now in advance, but maybe a fair category where it didn't make sense.

我很欣賞這些想法。我想知道是否可能沒有一個公平的類別或類似的東西，不是你現在提前告訴我的，而是一個沒有意義的公平類別。

And then just a follow-up to Savi's question on the regional constraints. Do you have any anecdotes? I mean some markets are going to be no longer addressable. But do you have any anecdotes of markets that you've maintained where you've sort of swapped it out? Does it, by default, imply lower frequency? Or does it push you into some new markets? If you could just talk about that more broadly maybe from a network perspective.

然後只是對 Savi 關於區域限制的問題的跟進。你有什麼軼事嗎？我的意思是一些市場將不再是可尋址的。但是，你有沒有什麼市場軼事，你維護過的地方，你已經把它換掉了？默認情況下，它是否意味著較低的頻率？或者它會推動你進入一些新市場？如果您可以從網絡的角度更廣泛地談論這一點。

I don't think it pushes us into new markets. But as we've classified this, there are places that have fewer flights and there are unfortunately places that have no flights. And we continue to adjust the formula. Again, for the most part, we anticipated this. The big difference here is this is occurring at a faster pace than maybe we anticipated 6 to 9 months ago.

我認為它不會推動我們進入新市場。但是正如我們已經分類的那樣，有些地方的航班較少，不幸的是有些地方沒有航班。我們繼續調整公式。同樣，在大多數情況下，我們預料到了這一點。這裡最大的不同是，這比我們在 6 到 9 個月前預期的速度更快。

So it's just accelerating our United Next plan and where we're going to go to. But there will be communities that unfortunately don't have United service in the future. And there will be communities that have fewer flights, and there will be communities that have fewer flights with bigger aircraft. And that's kind of the outlook. We don't -- again, I said it a few minutes ago, we don't expect this to really materially improve in 2022, and we'll see where we go in 2023.

所以它只是在加速我們的 United Next 計劃和我們要去的地方。但不幸的是，將來會有一些社區沒有美聯航服務。會有航班更少的社區，也會有航班更少但飛機更大的社區。這就是前景。我們不會 - 再說一遍，我幾分鐘前說過，我們不希望這在 2022 年真正得到實質性改善，我們將在 2023 年看到我們的發展方向。

From Jefferies, we have Sheila Kahyaoglu.

來自 Jefferies，我們有 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Maybe if we could think about your United Next targets, I know they're far out. But how do we think about the inflationary expectations you're baking into those targets and how they've changed over the past 6 months?

也許如果我們可以考慮一下你的 United Next 目標，我知道它們還很遙遠。但是，我們如何看待您對這些目標的通脹預期以及它們在過去 6 個月中的變化？

Well, Sheila, it's fair to say that over the last 6 months, we've seen more inflationary structure than we might have expected a year ago. That's incorporated in our numbers and our guidance for this year and our comfort for next year. So we've taken that into account.

好吧，希拉，公平地說，在過去的 6 個月裡，我們看到的通脹結構比一年前預期的要多。這已包含在我們的數字和今年的指導以及明年的舒適度中。所以我們已經考慮到了這一點。

And in terms of where we're seeing those inflationary pressures, we're no different, I think, than anyone else. Clearly, on the vendor side, airport vendors, we're seeing that -- other suppliers, like everybody else, when you go to the supermarket, you're seeing higher food prices. We're seeing higher food prices, but we're managing through all that. And I can tell you that on our flight, if beef becomes too expensive, we always have chicken.

就我們看到這些通脹壓力的地方而言，我認為，我們與其他任何人都沒有什麼不同。顯然，在供應商方面，機場供應商，我們看到其他供應商，就像其他人一樣，當你去超市時，你會看到更高的食品價格。我們看到食品價格上漲，但我們正在應對所有這些。我可以告訴你，在我們的航班上，如果牛肉變得太貴，我們總是有雞肉。

From Goldman Sachs, we have Catherine O'Brien.

來自高盛，我們有凱瑟琳奧布萊恩。

So I know there are a range of outcomes on your capacity for this year that's going to be based on demand. But should we still be thinking about international being the bigger driver as you get back to growth mode later this year? So like if we end up with flat capacity, which is one of your book ends, should we expect domestic to be down underlying that?

所以我知道你今年的能力會有一系列結果，這將取決於需求。但是，隨著您在今年晚些時候恢復增長模式，我們是否仍應考慮將國際化作為更大的推動力？因此，如果我們最終的產能持平，這是你的書的結尾之一，我們是否應該期望國內的產能下降？

I will say the plans are still agile. We are going to fly less international than we expected to just a few months ago, but we're also going to fly less domestic. Whether in 100% proportion to each other, I think it's just too early to tell. So I'm going to refrain from giving you an exact answer to that question.

我會說這些計劃仍然很靈活。我們的國際航班將少於幾個月前的預期，但我們也將減少國內航班。是否有100%的比例，我認為現在說還為時過早。所以我將避免給你一個關於這個問題的確切答案。

Okay. Got it. Fair enough. And then just on the forward demand outlook, I don't want to read too much into your word choices. I think in the release, you said you're optimistic about spring and excited about summer.

好的。知道了。很公平。然後就前瞻需求前景而言，我不想過多解讀您的措辭。我想在發布會上，你說你對春天很樂觀，對夏天很興奮。

Should we read this as you're seeing bookings come in stronger than what you're seeing for spring as maybe consumers are just more optimistic about COVID by the time we get to this summer? Or just would love to hear kind of like how the bookings are looking right now, maybe over the next 4 or 5 months based on what you've got on the books today.

我們是否應該閱讀這篇文章，因為您看到預訂量比您在春季看到的要強，因為到今年夏天，消費者可能對 COVID 更加樂觀？或者只是很想听聽現在的預訂情況，可能在接下來的 4 或 5 個月內，根據你今天在書上得到的信息。

Sure. I'll give it a try. What -- the first thing I'll say is that when the Omicron spike happened that what really happened was cancellations peaked, particularly for close-in travel, and net bookings declined as a result of that, but total bookings also declined as a result of that. But all of that impact was really felt close in and not far out.

當然。我會試一試。什麼 - 我要說的第一件事是，當 Omicron 峰值發生時，真正發生的是取消高峰，特別是對於近距離旅行，淨預訂量因此下降，但總預訂量也因此下降那個。但所有這些影響都在近處和不遠處真正感受到。

And so we are continuing to book March, for example, normally throughout the entire Omicron process, including from the perspective of our yields, to be blunt. And that continues all the way beyond March all the way through the summer, where, for example, we look at the Atlantic and we're booked ahead from a passenger count and we're booked ahead from a revenue perspective, which means our PRASM is obviously positive in the future quarters for the Atlantic. So all that is really good.

因此，坦率地說，例如，我們將繼續預訂 3 月份，通常貫穿整個 Omicron 流程，包括從我們的產量角度來看。這種情況一直持續到 3 月之後一直持續到整個夏天，例如，在大西洋，我們根據乘客數量提前預訂，我們從收入角度提前預訂，這意味著我們的 PRASM大西洋的未來幾個季度顯然是積極的。所以這一切真的很好。

What Omicron did is cause a spike in near-term cancellations and reduction in near-term bookings, particularly for business travel. And what I can tell you over the last few weeks, we've already seen that start to come back into line. For example, in week 1, we were down 48% versus 2019 for total bookings. In week 2 of this year, we were down 40%. And now in week 3, week to date, we're down 25%. And so we are seeing this really come back very quickly.

Omicron 所做的是導致近期取消量激增和近期預訂量減少，尤其是商務旅行。在過去的幾周里，我可以告訴你的是，我們已經看到這種情況開始恢復正常。例如，在第 1 週，我們的總預訂量與 2019 年相比下降了 48%。在今年的第二週，我們下跌了 40%。現在在第 3 週，迄今為止，我們下降了 25%。所以我們看到這真的很快回來了。

And the second point, as I said earlier, our cancellations are also now coming back into normalcy. So this really -- again, there's a hole in January that we can't fill because it's just too close in, and there's a bit of a hole in February as well. But March looks normal at this point and definitely beyond that based on these trends.

第二點，正如我之前所說，我們的取消活動現在也恢復正常。所以這真的 - 再次，一月份有一個我們無法填補的漏洞，因為它太靠近了，二月份也有一點漏洞。但在這一點上，三月看起來很正常，而且基於這些趨勢肯定超出了這一點。

And again, bookings are coming back really, really quickly. Hopefully, we will be back to somewhat of a normal stance or at least where we were in the middle of the Q4 quarter, sometime by the middle of February.

再一次，預訂量真的很快就回來了。希望我們能恢復到某種程度的正常立場，或者至少在 2 月中旬的某個時候，我們會回到第四季度中期的狀態。

And from Deutsche Bank, we have Michael Linenberg.

我們有來自德意志銀行的 Michael Linenberg。

Two here. One, can you just refresh us on your hiring plans for 2022, more specifically, number of pilots and mechanics? And how is the ramp? Is it spread throughout the year? Is it front-end loaded?

這裡有兩個。一，您能否向我們介紹您 2022 年的招聘計劃，更具體地說，是飛行員和機械師的數量？坡道怎麼樣？是否全年傳播？它是前端加載的嗎？

Mike, it's Brett. Look, first, I'll say, in the back half of this year, we were really successful in meeting our -- a lot of our hiring goals. And obviously, we think we'll have no issues in particular on the mainline next year moving those goals.

邁克，我是布雷特。看，首先，我要說的是，在今年下半年，我們確實成功地實現了我們的 - 很多我們的招聘目標。顯然，我們認為明年在主線上移動這些目標不會有任何問題。

In terms of pilots, for instance, in back half of this year, we hired approximately 1,200 pilots. So we think that trend will continue in the next year. Our overall numbers for next year, we expect to be in line with our needs. But we don't put out specific numbers at this point in time.

以飛行員為例，今年下半年，我們僱傭了大約1200名飛行員。因此，我們認為這種趨勢將在明年繼續。我們明年的總體數字，我們預計將符合我們的需求。但我們目前沒有公佈具體數字。

Okay. Great. And then just quickly, Andrew, when I saw the guidance, the release, the March quarter revenue sort of what you were guiding to relative to others, it was good. It looked more favorable.

好的。偉大的。然後很快，安德魯，當我看到指導、發布、3 月季度收入那種你相對於其他人的指導時，這很好。它看起來更有利。

And given that the March quarter historically has been seasonally much more challenging for you than your competitors, does that reflect maybe network changes over the last year? Is it cargo driving a bigger piece, ancillary, all of the above? Really curious what's allowing you to kind of catch up and at least narrow the gap with your competition.

鑑於歷史上 3 月季度對您的季節性挑戰比您的競爭對手大得多，這是否反映了去年網絡的變化？是貨物驅動更大的一塊，輔助的，以上所有的嗎？真的很好奇是什麼讓你能夠趕上並至少縮小與競爭對手的差距。

Thanks, Mike. I will say that improvement in our relative results in Q1 has been one of our long-term goals for many, many years. Obviously, there's a lot going on, a lot of moving pieces in Q1 of this year. But all of the factors you just said and all of us here at United kind of working together to move these things around has made an impact or really, I wish the Q1 guidance could be dramatically higher, but we are where we are.

謝謝，邁克。我想說的是，我們在第一季度的相對結果的改善一直是我們多年來的長期目標之一。顯然，今年第一季度發生了很多事情，很多事情發生了。但是你剛才所說的所有因素以及我們在曼聯的所有人共同努力推動這些事情已經產生了影響，或者說真的，我希望第一季度的指導可以顯著提高，但我們就是我們現在的位置。

But I think we're on the right path for long term, and particularly, we're on the right path toward making our Q1 results less of a gap to our competitors. And that, of course, will overall help us close margin gaps in the future because we do pretty well in Q2 -- or our Q2 and Q3 given our global long-haul nature and our [East-West] nature here domestically.

但我認為從長遠來看，我們正走在正確的道路上，特別是，我們正走在正確的道路上，使我們的第一季度業績與競爭對手的差距縮小。當然，這將總體上幫助我們縮小未來的利潤率差距，因為我們在第二季度或第二季度和第三季度做得很好，因為我們的全球長途性質和我們在國內的[東西方]性質。

From Bank of America, we have Andrew Didora.

來自美國銀行，我們有 Andrew Didora。

Just kind of wanted to go back to the regional pilot issue and look at it -- I'll ask maybe a little bit of a different question. It's if the regionals had or are experiencing pilot shortages, so do you expect this to eventually -- could this potentially creep into your mainline hiring plans, particularly given kind of the growth that you guys have ahead of you? And if it did creep its way in, would that be a risk to some of your longer-term CASM target?

只是有點想回到區域試點問題並看看它——我可能會問一些不同的問題。如果地區已經或正在經歷飛行員短缺，那麼您是否期望最終會出現這種情況 - 這是否可能會滲透到您的主線招聘計劃中，特別是考慮到你們面前的增長？如果它真的悄悄進入，這會對你的一些長期 CASM 目標構成風險嗎？

Maybe I'll give it a try. At this point, we've had absolutely no trouble hiring for United mainline pilot jobs. And the second point is we are working very hard to make sure that the supply of pilots coming into this great business increases. And given where salaries are, the career potential, we're confident that's going to happen.

也許我會試一試。在這一點上，我們在招聘美聯航主線飛行員工作方面絕對沒有問題。第二點是我們正在努力確保進入這項偉大業務的飛行員供應增加。考慮到薪水在哪裡，職業潛力，我們相信這將會發生。

And of course, one of the things we've done, which is highlighted a lot is our Aviate Academy, where we're bringing new students, many of them diverse, into the United Airlines world very, very early in the process. And so we're all working to make sure that there's plenty of pilots for the long-term supply, which we think is the case. But we do have a year or more where this needs time to get back into proper balance. And at this point, we haven't seen any impact to our mainline hiring abilities.

當然，我們所做的其中一件事是我們的 Aviate Academy，我們在此過程中非常非常早就將新學生（其中許多是多元化的）帶入了聯合航空公司的世界。所以我們都在努力確保有足夠的飛行員來長期供應，我們認為情況就是如此。但是我們確實有一年或更長時間需要時間來恢復適當的平衡。在這一點上，我們還沒有看到對我們的主線招聘能力有任何影響。

I guess as a follow-up to that, why do you think it's easier to hire into mainline than into the regionals? Is it just basically pay scales? I'm just curious what the -- kind of what that disconnect is.

我想作為後續行動，為什麼你認為進入主線比進入區域更容易？它只是基本的工資表嗎？我只是好奇這種脫節是什麼。

I wouldn't --.

我不會——。

Well, I'll take a shot at it, Andrew. You've done a great job today on the call, by the way. I appreciate it.

好吧，我會試一試，安德魯。順便說一句，你今天在電話會議上做得很好。我很感激。

No, I want you to take a shot at it.

不，我要你試一試。

Look, I think this is an important point. And the big difference for us at the mainline is that at United, we create careers. They're not just jobs. Our average flight attendant, ramp worker, gate agent back in a full -- in a normal year, once they get the top of the seniority scale with their union contracts makes a 6-digit income -- can make a 6-digit income with great benefits.

看，我認為這是很重要的一點。在主線對我們來說最大的不同在於，在曼聯，我們創造了職業生涯。他們不僅僅是工作。我們的普通空乘人員、停機坪工人、登機口代理人在正常的一年裡，一旦他們的工會合同達到資歷的最高水平，他們就可以獲得 6 位數的收入 - 可以通過以下方式獲得 6 位數的收入很大的好處。

It's one of the few jobs -- the few places that there are jobs left where you can support a family and send your kids to college and have great benefits and have security. And I think at the end of the day, that's the reason that we can hire at the mainline is because we create careers where people can spend their whole career here instead of just what's the hourly rate today.

這是為數不多的工作之一 - 為數不多的有工作的地方，你可以養家糊口，送孩子上大學，享受巨大的福利和保障。而且我認為歸根結底，這就是我們可以在主線招聘的原因是因為我們創造了人們可以在這裡度過整個職業生涯的職業，而不僅僅是今天的小時費率。

From UBS, we have Myles Walton.

在瑞銀，我們有邁爾斯沃爾頓。

I think there's a comment -- I know, Scott, on CNBC you said second quarter, you're targeting profitable or hope to be profitable. I'm just curious, do you think for the full year, you have line of sight for pretax profitability? And then maybe, Scott, while you're answering that, if you're answering it, one of the first things that Russia did -- has done in previous instances with response to sanctions is shut down their airspace. Obviously, you get some limited capacity going to Asia at this point, so maybe it's not that big a deal. But relative to your plan for '22, how disruptive would that be?

我認為有一個評論——我知道，斯科特，你在 CNBC 上說第二季度，你的目標是盈利或希望盈利。我只是好奇，你認為全年，你有稅前盈利能力嗎？然後也許，斯科特，當你回答這個問題時，如果你在回答這個問題，俄羅斯所做的第一件事——在以前的情況下對製裁做出的反應就是關閉他們的領空。顯然，此時你將獲得一些有限的能力去亞洲，所以也許這沒什麼大不了的。但相對於你 22 年的計劃，這會有多大的破壞性？

So on the first question, I tried at least on CNBC to say, we're trying to get out of the business with short term -- in the short-term ups and downs of COVID because we haven't been very good at it. We've been really good at the trajectory, but it's impossible to predict what's going to happen in the very short term. But if we continue on the trajectory that Andrew described, where bookings went from down 48% the first week to down 25% this week, we are back on track to be profitable in both -- in the second, third and fourth quarter. It's probably getting to too fine a point to try to add up, which I guess is what you're asking. If I add up the second, third and fourth quarter, are those a number that's greater than the loss in 1Q? That's probably too fine a point for me to have confidence in forecasting at this point.

所以在第一個問題上，我至少在 CNBC 上嘗試說，我們正試圖在短期內退出業務——在 COVID 的短期起伏中，因為我們並不擅長它.我們一直非常擅長軌跡，但無法預測在很短的時間內會發生什麼。但是，如果我們繼續按照 Andrew 所描述的軌跡，即預訂量從第一周的下降 48% 下降到本週的下降 25%，我們將在第二、第三和第四季度重回盈利軌道。嘗試加起來可能太精細了，我想這就是您要問的。如果我將第二季度、第三季度和第四季度相加，這些數字是否大於第一季度的虧損？這對我來說可能是太好了，以至於我現在對預測沒有信心。

On the Russia point, I'm not going to speculate on that yet. We'll continue -- we -- at United, as the flag carrier for the United States lines up, be exposed in a good way, exposed in a bad way to geopolitics around the world. And so we follow them closely and pay attention to them and have a good history of responding when something happens. But we're, like everyone, keeping a close eye on the situation in Ukraine and how it develops.

關於俄羅斯的問題，我還不打算對此進行推測。我們將繼續——我們——在聯合航空，作為美國的旗艦航空公司，以一種好的方式暴露於世界各地的地緣政治中，以一種不好的方式暴露於世界各地。因此，我們密切關注他們並關注他們，並且在發生事情時有良好的響應歷史。但我們和所有人一樣，密切關注烏克蘭的局勢及其發展情況。

From Wolfe Research, we have Hunter Keay.

來自 Wolfe Research，我們有 Hunter Keay。

Just to be completely clear, are you still reiterating the 9% pretax margin, the CASM-ex [down 4] for '23 and also the 4% to 5% capacity CAGR for next year?

為了完全清楚，您是否仍在重申 9% 的稅前利潤率、23 年的 CASM-ex [下降 4] 以及明年 4% 至 5% 的產能複合年增長率？

Hunter, it's Gerry. Yes, we're confirming all that.

亨特，是格里。是的，我們正在確認這一切。

Okay. Got it. And then as you think about the premium seats you're adding, I think you said it was going to be like 60% or something like that. But I think most of your top corporates were tech customers flying to Asia. You could argue that both tech and Asia are going to be the most likely sort of challenged segments to come back geographically? And line of business, whatever you want to call it, how do you square that? And does this mean maybe fewer wide-bodies at an SFO forever? Or is it just more like a timing issue in your mind?

好的。知道了。然後，當您考慮要添加的高級座位時，我想您說過它將是 60% 或類似的東西。但我認為你們的大多數頂級公司都是飛往亞洲的科技客戶。您可能會爭辯說，科技和亞洲都將成為最有可能在地理上回歸的受挑戰細分市場？和業務線，無論你想怎麼稱呼它，你如何看待它？這是否意味著 SFO 的寬體飛機可能會永遠減少？或者它更像是你心中的時間問題？

Well, Hunter, forever is a long time, so I don't think I'm going to agree to forever. It's clearly, for the foreseeable future, we anticipate having a smaller footprint across the Pacific and those airplanes being redeployed elsewhere where they can be more productive for the business. So that's going to continue for a while. And when things change in Asia, we'll be ready to bounce back there. We have great partners in Asia, particularly with ANA in Japan and Air China in China. So we're ready to go when demand returns, but it's difficult to predict.

嗯，亨特，永遠是很長的時間，所以我不認為我會永遠同意。很明顯，在可預見的未來，我們預計整個太平洋地區的足跡會更小，而這些飛機將被重新部署到其他地方，在那裡它們可以為業務帶來更高的生產力。所以這將持續一段時間。當亞洲的情況發生變化時，我們將準備好在那裡反彈。我們在亞洲有很好的合作夥伴，尤其是日本的全日空和中國的國航。因此，我們已準備好在需求恢復時出發，但這很難預測。

There's no doubt, we did well in the business class cabin to Asia. But I can tell you, we did just as well across the Atlantic and to South America. It's one of our strong suits. And so we feel bullish that Asia is definitely going to be tamed for the next few years from the United Airlines capacity perspective, but we're going to redeploy that capacity where it can be fruitful for the business and fruitful, in particular, in the business class cabin.

毫無疑問，我們在前往亞洲的商務艙中表現出色。但我可以告訴你，我們在大西洋彼岸和南美洲的表現同樣出色。這是我們的強項之一。因此，我們看好未來幾年，從聯合航空運力的角度來看，亞洲肯定會被馴服，但我們將重新部署這種運力，使其能夠為業務帶來豐碩成果，尤其是在商務艙。

And again, as I said earlier, we're seeing smaller wide-body jets being used by our primary competitors across the globe. And so that brings in not only less capacity in total, but significantly less capacity in the business class cabin. So as you try to square a circle that has many different movements to it, what I would tell you is that capacity and demand is all moving. And there are plenty of scenarios out there where business traffic across the Atlantic could be less than 100%. But if supply is dramatically less than 100%, it may -- it should all work out.

同樣，正如我之前所說，我們看到全球主要競爭對手正在使用更小的寬體噴氣式飛機。因此，這不僅導致總容量減少，而且商務艙的容量也大大減少。因此，當您嘗試將一個具有許多不同運動的圓圈擺成方形時，我要告訴您的是，容量和需求都在變化。在很多情況下，跨大西洋的業務流量可能低於 100%。但是，如果供應量大大低於 100%，它可能——一切都會解決。

Thank you. And this concludes the investor part of our Q&A. At this time, we will now take questions from the media. (Operator Instructions) And from Wall Street Journal, we have Alison Sider.

謝謝你。我們問答的投資者部分到此結束。在這個時候，我們現在將接受媒體的提問。 （操作員說明）來自《華爾街日報》的艾莉森·賽德（Alison Sider）。

I'm just curious, talking about their issues with the regionals and the pilot shortage there, how are you thinking about kind of the financial health of all your regional carriers? Is this something they can all survive? Or do you anticipate any consolidation or any kind of substantial turmoil there?

我只是好奇，談論他們與區域航空公司的問題以及那裡的飛行員短缺，您如何看待所有區域航空公司的財務狀況？這是他們都可以生存的東西嗎？還是您預計那裡會出現任何整合或任何形式的實質性動盪？

Alison, it's Andrew. I'll let our regional carriers speak for themselves on their financial situation. I just -- I can't respond to that.

艾莉森，我是安德魯。我會讓我們的區域運營商為他們自己的財務狀況說話。我只是——我無法回應。

And I mean, I guess, just you mentioned sort of not having any trouble hiring pilots at the mainline level, but how about training? Are you seeing any kind of log jams or delays in the training process? And are you seeing any issues in your pipeline for mechanics?

我的意思是，我想，你剛才提到在主線級別招聘飛行員沒有任何問題，但是培訓呢？您是否在培訓過程中看到任何類型的日誌堵塞或延遲？您是否發現您的機械管道存在任何問題？

From a training perspective, we have our flight training center in Denver, Colorado. And I'll let Brett speak to it, but I think things are really well under control there.

從培訓的角度來看，我們在科羅拉多州丹佛市設有飛行培訓中心。我會讓布雷特談談，但我認為那裡的情況確實得到了很好的控制。

Yes, we're not seeing any issues with respect to the training process. And just to emphasize again, we're certainly not seeing any issues on the hiring side. So we don't anticipate any issues with respect to any hiring across the board that we need to make in order to stay on plan with our mainline operations.

是的，我們沒有看到與培訓過程有關的任何問題。再次強調，我們當然沒有在招聘方面看到任何問題。因此，我們預計不會出現與我們需要進行的任何全面招聘有關的任何問題，以便按照我們的主線運營計劃進行。

From CNBC, we have Leslie Josephs.

我們有來自 CNBC 的 Leslie Josephs。

I was curious if there are any incentives that you're having to offer around the country in various workgroups to track workers? And if there are any markets that are getting higher wages or signing bonuses, where are those? And where do you see that trend going throughout the year?

我很好奇您是否必須在全國各地的各個工作組中提供任何激勵措施來跟踪工人？如果有任何市場正在獲得更高的工資或簽約獎金，這些在哪裡？您認為這一趨勢全年的趨勢如何？

Yes. This is Brett Hart. We are taking it market by market. And certainly, we are seeing some parts of the country where there is some more difficulty in small pockets for hiring, and we're making necessary adjustments in those markets. But our approach is to take it. And just that way, we determine what needs to be done in a specific market. We try to maintain consistency across our organization, but we understand that there are different macro and micro economic factors at play, and we're adjusting to those. But at this time, we can call out specific markets, I mean, I think we're being impacted in the same way that other employers are, both in our industry and, quite frankly, across other industries. And that information is pretty readily available.

是的。這是布雷特哈特。我們正在逐個市場進行。當然，我們看到該國的某些地區在招聘方面存在更多困難，我們正在對這些市場進行必要的調整。但我們的方法是接受它。正是這樣，我們才能確定在特定市場需要做什麼。我們試圖在整個組織中保持一致性，但我們知道有不同的宏觀和微觀經濟因素在起作用，我們正在適應這些因素。但在這個時候，我們可以指出特定的市場，我的意思是，我認為我們受到的影響與其他雇主一樣，無論是在我們的行業，還是坦率地說，在其他行業。而且這些信息很容易獲得。

And from Bloomberg, we have Justin Bachman.

在彭博社，我們有賈斯汀·巴赫曼。

This might be a question for Gerry, I'm not sure. But as far as the full year capacity plans, I'm wondering if you could discuss a little bit about where the various buckets of that are coming from in terms of the regional pilot issues, the variant demand issues, Boeing 787 delays and those sort of things being pushed back. Could you sort of discuss which areas are contributing to that and in what ways?

這可能是格里的問題，我不確定。但就全年產能計劃而言，我想知道您是否可以討論一下關於區域試點問題、變體需求問題、波音 787 延誤等方面的各種桶的來源被推遲的事情。您能否討論一下哪些領域對此做出了貢獻以及以什麼方式？

So Justin, it's Andrew. I'll try. I'm not sure if I completely understand the question. There are a number of categories that caused us to be off from the original 5% guidance for 2022. The first one of those is demand and the fact that the Omicron variant has kind of hit the industry, as you know. And so we just -- we needed to take some [back together] plan to reflect that, and we've done that.

賈斯汀，是安德魯。我會盡力。我不確定我是否完全理解這個問題。有許多類別導致我們偏離了 2022 年最初的 5% 指導。如您所知，其中第一個是需求以及 Omicron 變體對行業產生影響的事實。所以我們只是 - 我們需要採取一些[重新在一起]計劃來反映這一點，我們已經做到了。

So when you look at the different categories of what's happening, and I don't have a slide in front of me that has the numbers, but I have a slide somewhere that does, is the 777s, 52 grounded aircraft, those 777s that are grounded normally represent about 10% of our business in total. And so they're going to be flying in full force in Q4 this year versus flying in full force for the first 3 quarters. That's a big deal.

因此，當您查看正在發生的事情的不同類別時，我面前沒有顯示數字的幻燈片，但我在某處有一張幻燈片，是 777，52 架停飛的飛機，那些 777接地通常占我們總業務的 10% 左右。因此，他們將在今年第四季度全力飛行，而前三個季度將全力飛行。這是一件大事。

The second one is we've delayed the return to service of a bunch of narrow-bodies that we have in storage. I don't have the exact number, but I think in Q4, it was in the neighborhood of 50-or-so aircraft. And in Q1, it's slightly lower than that number, but still a really significant number. So that's also a big category in terms of ASM services.

第二個是我們推遲了我們存儲的一堆窄體的恢復服務。我沒有確切的數字，但我認為在第四季度，大約有 50 架左右的飛機。在第一季度，它略低於這個數字，但仍然是一個非常重要的數字。所以這也是 ASM 服務的一大類。

Third, the regional jets, because they are smaller aircraft that fly short distances, when we measure those in terms of ASMs, their impact on the capacity plan is actually quite small. And then beyond that, we just have lower utilization, again, to reflect the demand in our (inaudible). So those are 3, I think, of the larger buckets. Unless somebody else has a category I'm missing, I think that's how I describe that. Does that answer your question?

第三，支線飛機，因為它們是飛行距離較短的小型飛機，當我們用ASM來衡量時，它們對運力計劃的影響實際上是很小的。然後除此之外，我們的利用率再次降低，以反映我們的需求（聽不清）。所以我認為這些是較大的桶中的 3 個。除非其他人有我缺少的類別，否則我認為這就是我描述的方式。這是否回答你的問題？

Yes. Yes, I know that's kind of what I was hoping to hear about. Thanks a lot, Andrew.

是的。是的，我知道這是我希望聽到的。非常感謝，安德魯。

From USA Today, we have Dawn Gilbertson.

來自今日美國，我們有黎明吉爾伯森。

Andrew, I know you'd rather talk about Polaris, but a broad swathe of travelers out there are on a budget and slide basic economy. I wonder if you could give an update on the trends you're seeing in basic economy. It's been a while since you released any kind of figures on like what percentage of bookings are in basic economy. And I'm wondering whether that's changed at all since the pandemic waivers were lifted and they're no longer changeable. And related to that, I wonder if you guys have any plans like Delta did to extend travel credit beyond the current deadline.

安德魯，我知道你寧願談論北極星，但那裡的大部分旅行者都在預算和基本經濟下滑。我想知道您是否可以提供有關您在基本經濟中看到的趨勢的最新信息。自從您發布任何類型的數據以來已經有一段時間了，例如基本經濟艙的預訂百分比。而且我想知道自從大流行豁免被取消並且它們不再可以改變之後，這種情況是否發生了變化。與此相關，我想知道你們是否有像達美那樣在當前截止日期之後延長旅行信用的計劃。

Good to hear your voice, Dawn. I think what I would say is throughout the crisis, the basic percentage of tickets sold has varied significantly at United. And today, it's somewhere in the high single digits domestically. During the crisis, it got as low as 4%. And before the crisis, it was well over 20%. And so this number is moving around based on all kinds of different things.

很高興聽到你的聲音，黎明。我想我想說的是，在整個危機期間，曼聯售出門票的基本百分比變化很大。而今天，它在國內處於高個位數。在危機期間，這一比例低至 4%。而在危機之前，這一比例遠遠超過 20%。所以這個數字是基於各種不同的事物而變化的。

But as a result, it is a -- as we speak today, it is a much smaller percentage of our ticket sales in our domestic system than it has historically been pre-crisis. And I think that's really all I can say. In terms of the tickets, we are evaluating that now. I'll have more to say about that in the future. But our tickets are currently valid through the end of this year. So people still have a ton of time out there to find their credits and burn them on United Airlines.

但其結果是——正如我們今天所說，它在我們國內系統中的門票銷售中所佔的比例比危機前的歷史要小得多。我想這就是我能說的。在門票方面，我們現在正在評估。將來我會對此多說。但是我們的門票目前有效期到今年年底。所以人們仍然有大量的時間去尋找他們的積分並在聯合航空公司上燒掉它們。

And from TPG, we have David Slotnick.

來自 TPG，我們有 David Slotnick。

I have a question about the international routes that you announced, the 5 new routes, I think, it was earlier in the fall. What kind of bookings are you seeing from them so far? And are they tracking with international bookings overall? Or are they a little bit off from the name?

我有一個關於你宣布的國際航線的問題，5 條新航線，我想是在秋天早些時候。到目前為止，您從他們那裡看到了什麼樣的預訂？他們是否在整體跟踪國際預訂？或者他們的名字有點偏離？

I'll take that. So international bookings across the Atlantic are -- for travel April and beyond are ahead of 2019 levels. And all of our new markets are exactly at their expectations. I will say that each new market has a different booking curve, depending on where we're going. And each of those new markets is running on the booking curve we expected. We really have not seen the virus or Omicron, in particular, impact our long-haul demand across the Atlantic at this point for our future travel.

我會接受的。因此，跨大西洋的國際預訂量——4 月及以後的旅行高於 2019 年的水平。我們所有的新市場都完全符合他們的預期。我會說每個新市場都有不同的預訂曲線，這取決於我們要去的地方。這些新市場中的每一個都在我們預期的預訂曲線上運行。在這一點上，我們真的沒有看到病毒或 Omicron 對我們未來旅行的跨大西洋長途需求產生影響。

Okay. And then just a follow-up question to the 5G questions from earlier. There have been a handful of regional jets that have been affected. We've seen it even today, there was a couple of, I believe, United Express jets that went from -- had to divert from San Francisco to Reno. Do you anticipate a continued impact from the network just from the RJ issues?

好的。然後只是前面 5G 問題的後續問題。有幾架支線飛機受到影響。即使在今天，我們也已經看到了，我相信有幾架聯合快運飛機從——不得不從舊金山轉移到里諾。您是否預計 RJ 問題會繼續對網絡產生影響？

I think there's a lot yet to be determined. There are modest impact still from the rollout of 5G. They're not nearly as significant as they were scheduled to be without the agreement that was reached. But more to come. It's still very real time. We will work, hopefully, with the telecoms and the FAA through the whole process to further reduce the impact. But I don't know the full answer yet.

我認為還有很多事情需要確定。 5G 的推出仍會產生適度的影響。在沒有達成協議的情況下，它們的重要性並不像預定的那樣重要。但還有更多。它仍然非常實時。希望我們將在整個過程中與電信和美國聯邦航空局合作，以進一步減少影響。但我還不知道完整的答案。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now turn it back to Kristina Munoz for closing remarks.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，我們現在將把話題轉回 Kristina Munoz 來做閉幕詞。

Thanks, everyone, for joining the call today. Please contact Investor and Media Relations if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

謝謝大家，今天加入電話會議。如果您有任何其他問題，請聯繫投資者和媒體關係部，我們期待在下個季度與您交談。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您加入，您現在可以斷開連接。