聯合航空 (UAL) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to United Airlines Holdings' Earnings Conference Call for the First Quarter 2022. My name is Brandon, and I'll be your conference facilitator today. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded and is copyrighted.

早上好，歡迎參加聯合航空控股公司 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。我叫布蘭登，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。 （操作員說明）此通話正在錄音並受版權保護。

Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed or rebroadcast without the company's permission. Your participation implies your consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line.

請注意，未經公司許可，不得對通話的任何部分進行錄音、轉錄或轉播。您的參與意味著您同意我們對此次通話進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，只需下線即可。

I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Emily, Manager of Investor Relations. Emily, you may go ahead.

現在，我將把演示文稿交給今天的電話會議主持人，投資者關係經理 Emily。艾米麗，你可以繼續。

Thanks, Brandon.Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our website at ir.united.com.

謝謝，布蘭登。大家早上好，歡迎參加美聯航 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。昨天，我們發布了收益報告，可在我們的網站 ir.united.com 上查閱。

Information in yesterday's release and the remarks made during this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, which represent the company's current expectations or beliefs concerning future events and financial performance.

昨天發布的信息和本次電話會議期間發表的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述代表了公司當前對未來事件和財務業績的預期或信念。

All forward-looking statements are based upon information currently available to the company. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release Form 10-K and 10-Q and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors.

所有前瞻性陳述均基於公司目前可獲得的信息。許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期大相徑庭。請參閱我們的收益發布表格 10-K 和 10-Q 以及聯合航空控股公司和聯合航空向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他報告，以更全面地描述這些因素。

Also during the course of our call, we will discuss several non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings release.

同樣在我們的電話會議期間，我們將討論一些非公認會計原則的財務措施。有關這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施的對賬，請參閱我們收益發布末尾的表格。

Joining us on the call today to discuss our results and outlook are Chief Executive Officer, Scott Kirby; President, Brett Hart; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Gerry Laderman.

今天加入我們的電話會議討論我們的結果和前景的是首席執行官 Scott Kirby；布雷特·哈特總裁；執行副總裁兼首席商務官 Andrew Nocella；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Gerry Laderman。

In addition, we have other members of the executive team on the line, available to assess the Q&A. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

此外，我們還有其他執行團隊成員在線，可以評估問答。現在我想把電話轉給斯科特。

Thank you, Emily, and thank you all for joining us today. I want to start this morning by saying a huge thank you to the United team. Our mission is uniting people and connecting the world. And the foundation of United's success will always be the strength of our people.

謝謝你，艾米麗，謝謝大家今天加入我們。我想從今天早上開始，對曼聯隊表示衷心的感謝。我們的使命是團結人們，連接世界。曼聯成功的基礎永遠是我們員工的力量。

In the first quarter of this year, our team members continue to go above and beyond to take care of our customers and each other in what was a really difficult industry operating environment. The United team is stronger than ever. Our customers are seeing it, and I, along with the entire leadership team, are grateful to them.

今年第一季度，我們的團隊成員繼續超越自我，在非常困難的行業運營環境中照顧我們的客戶和彼此。曼聯隊比以往任何時候都更強大。我們的客戶看到了這一點，我和整個領導團隊都對他們表示感謝。

Our United Next strategy is firmly on track, and we're well on our way to our goal to build the biggest, best, the most profitable major airline in the history of the industry.

我們的 United Next 戰略已步入正軌，我們正朝著打造行業歷史上最大、最好、最賺錢的主要航空公司的目標邁進。

Even during the early days of the pandemic, we were determined to do much more than just survive the pandemic and get back to normal. We've spent the last 2 years getting United ready -- Airlines ready for this moment. We finally reached the inflection point as we transition from pandemic to endemic.

即使在大流行的初期，我們也決心做更多的事情，而不僅僅是在大流行中倖存下來並恢復正常。在過去的 2 年裡，我們一直在讓美聯航做好準備——航空公司已經為這一刻做好了準備。當我們從大流行過渡到地方病時，我們終於達到了拐點。

And demand is stronger than I've ever seen in my career, and that's even before business travel fully recovers, though it continues to accelerate at a rapid pace and before international, especially Asia, fully recovers.

需求比我職業生涯中見過的任何時候都要強勁，甚至在商務旅行完全恢復之前，儘管它繼續快速加速，並且在國際，尤其是亞洲，完全恢復之前。

We expect that will lead to the best TRASM and highest quarterly revenue in our history in 2Q. And despite the higher fuel prices, we're forecasting approximately a 10% operating margin this quarter.

我們預計這將在第二季度帶來我們歷史上最好的 TRASM 和最高的季度收入。儘管燃料價格上漲，我們預計本季度的營業利潤率約為 10%。

The rapid acceleration we're seeing in business and long haul as they move to catch up still-strong domestic leisure demand, gives us great confidence in the future outlook, but there are three reasons we believe investors should think that the hard work and strategic thinking that we're focused during the pandemic, have United best positioned, going forward.

我們在商業和長途旅行中看到的快速加速趕上仍然強勁的國內休閒需求，使我們對未來前景充滿信心，但我們認為投資者應該認為努力工作和戰略性的三個原因認為我們在大流行期間專注，讓曼聯處於最佳位置，繼續前進。

The first, the United brand and customer preference. Throughout the pandemic, we've talked about our desire to decommoditize air travel, and we've told you how strong our NPS scores are. If I look back at history, what we're really doing is trying to replicate what Continental successfully accomplished back in the '90s and Delta did about 15 years ago.

第一，聯合品牌和客戶偏好。在整個大流行期間，我們一直在談論我們希望使航空旅行非商品化的願望，並且我們已經告訴過您我們的 NPS 分數有多高。如果我回顧歷史，我們真正在做的是試圖複製大陸航空在 90 年代和達美航空在大約 15 年前所取得的成功。

Those two airlines shifted to a strong customer focus, and customers began to choose them because of their improved customer interactions and brands. The result was rapid improvement in relative TRASM, which led to rapid improvement in cash flow and earnings, which led to significant stock price outperformance.

這兩家航空公司轉向以客戶為中心，客戶開始選擇它們，因為它們改善了客戶互動和品牌。結果是相對 TRASM 的快速改善，導致現金流和收益的快速改善，從而導致股價大幅跑贏大市。

For anyone paying attention, there have been hints that the same thing was happening at United throughout the pandemic, as we led major carriers in TRASM, 7 out of the last 8 quarters. But that really was the warm-up.

對於任何關注的人來說，有跡象表明，在整個大流行期間，美聯航也在發生同樣的事情，因為我們在過去 8 個季度中有 7 個在 TRASM 中領先主要航空公司。但這確實是熱身。

I recognize we still have a lot to prove, and we must keep executing, but our TRASM outlook for 2Q is another strong indicator that customers are now choosing United much like they began choosing Continental and Delta 30 and 15 years ago.

我承認我們還有很多東西要證明，我們必須繼續執行，但我們對第二季度的 TRASM 展望是另一個強有力的指標，表明客戶現在選擇美聯航，就像他們在 30 和 15 年前開始選擇大陸航空和達美航空一樣。

Second, CASM-ex. There are a lot of industry pressures on capacity and CASM-ex, but I'm confident that United is set up to outperform by a wide margin. We do have timing issues with 777s, Boeing delivery delays and all the industry infrastructure required to bring capacity back reliably. And doing so reliably is our top focus.

第二，CASM-ex。運力和 CASM-ex 面臨很多行業壓力，但我相信美聯航的表現將大幅領先。我們確實在 777、波音交付延誤以及可靠恢復運力所需的所有行業基礎設施方面存在時間問題。可靠地做到這一點是我們的重中之重。

But ultimately, our gauge is going to grow approximately 30% by 2026. And that, more than anything, is going to drive the significant CASM-ex outperformance we expect at the same time, improving the product for our customers.

但最終，到 2026 年，我們的指標將增長約 30%。最重要的是，這將推動我們預期的顯著 CASM-ex 表現，同時為我們的客戶改進產品。

Three, United is uniquely positioned to benefit from fading COVID headwinds. As Andrew will detail, business travel is rapidly returning but it's still not fully recovered.

第三，美聯航具有獨特的優勢，可以從消退的 COVID 逆風中受益。正如安德魯將詳述的那樣，商務旅行正在迅速恢復，但仍未完全恢復。

And we expect United will benefit more than any other airline as that recovery continues, and international, especially Asia, is far from fully recovered. United is just more exposed to those sectors that we expect to have the most acceleration in the coming quarters.

我們預計，隨著復甦的持續，美聯航將比任何其他航空公司受益更多，而國際，尤其是亞洲，遠未完全復甦。美聯航更多地接觸我們預計在未來幾個季度加速最快的行業。

If you're going to invest in airlines, I think any of those three reasons should move United to the top of your pecking order. But I'll give you one more, I think, underappreciated reason for why you should invest in airlines in the first place.

如果你打算投資航空公司，我認為這三個原因中的任何一個都應該讓美聯航成為你的首選。但我認為，我會給你另一個被低估的理由，說明你為什麼應該首先投資航空公司。

At United, we've talked in the past about the vastly improved supply dynamics in the long-haul international markets, but we've been worried about the domestic markets. For reasons I'll describe, I now think the domestic market is also going to be robust.

在美聯航，我們過去曾談到遠程國際市場的供應動態大大改善，但我們一直擔心國內市場。出於我將要描述的原因，我現在認為國內市場也將變得強勁。

I think every single person listening to this call that has a spreadsheet with a forecast of industry capacity in the years to come, is wrong and probably wrong by a lot. The pilot shortage for the industry is real, and most airlines are simply not going to be able to realize their capacity plans because there simply aren't enough pilots, at least not for the next 5-plus years.

我認為每個聽這個電話的人都有一個電子表格，可以預測未來幾年的行業產能，這是錯誤的，而且可能錯了很多。該行業的飛行員短缺是真實存在的，大多數航空公司根本無法實現他們的運力計劃，因為根本沒有足夠的飛行員，至少在未來 5 年多的時間裡不會。

Given the work that we've done on our brand and customer experience, United, of course, isn't having any problems hiring pilots. We are always top tier for pilot pay, have a ton of growth opportunities for pilots coming soon. And we have, by far, the largest number of higher wide -- higher-paying, wide-body flights and positions.

鑑於我們在品牌和客戶體驗方面所做的工作，美聯航當然在招聘飛行員方面沒有任何問題。我們在飛行員薪酬方面始終處於領先地位，很快就會為飛行員提供大量的增長機會。到目前為止，我們擁有數量最多的更高——薪酬更高的寬體航班和職位。

But that's not all. United, increasingly, is where employees, including airline pilots, want to build a career. They see the lucrative financial opportunities that I just mentioned, but they also recognize that United is an airline where they can be proud to work.

但這還不是全部。美聯航越來越多地成為包括航空公司飛行員在內的員工想要建立職業的地方。他們看到了我剛才提到的有利可圖的財務機會，但他們也認識到美聯航是一家他們可以自豪地工作的航空公司。

From running a consistently top-tier operation to exciting new investments in our customers' experience to supersonic aircraft orders to being a force for good in the communities we serve, we're building an airline that leads, and that is where the best in the industry want to build a long-term career.

從始終如一的頂級運營，到對客戶體驗的激動人心的新投資，再到超音速飛機訂單，再到成為我們所服務社區中的一股造福力量，我們正在建立一家領先的航空公司，這就是世界上最好的航空公司行業想要建立一個長期的職業生涯。

In fact, we now see a lot of pilots from other airlines applying to be pilots at United, and that's new behavior.

事實上，我們現在看到很多其他航空公司的飛行員申請成為美聯航的飛行員，這是一種新行為。

While we are in a good position for the smaller and mid-tier airlines, there just aren't enough pilots to staff their growth aspirations. The other really large airlines will also probably be able to attract enough pilots. But for anyone else, I just don't think it's mathematically possible to meet the pilot demand for the capacity plans that are out there.

雖然我們對中小型航空公司來說處於有利地位，但沒有足夠的飛行員來滿足他們的增長願望。其他真正大型的航空公司也可能能夠吸引足夠的飛行員。但對於其他任何人，我只是認為在數學上滿足對現有容量計劃的試點需求是不可能的。

You can already see the issues that are occurring at multiple smaller and mid-tier airlines over pilot shortages. And looking forward, when United alone is ramping up higher about 200 pilots per month, that situation is only going to get worse. This is not a temporary issue.

您已經可以看到多家中小型航空公司因飛行員短缺而出現的問題。展望未來，當僅美聯航每月增加約 200 名飛行員時，這種情況只會變得更糟。這不是一個暫時的問題。

Because of that, I now think the domestic TRASM environment is going to be much stronger in the years to come than we previously thought because supply is going to be constrained by lack of pilots. You put all that together, and we feel very bullish. The last 2 years have obviously taught us that macro events can quickly change our outlook.

正因為如此，我現在認為未來幾年國內的 TRASM 環境將比我們之前想像的要強得多，因為供應將受到缺乏飛行員的限制。你把所有這些放在一起，我們感到非常樂觀。過去兩年顯然告訴我們，宏觀事件可以迅速改變我們的前景。

But our 2Q base expectation has us just 350 basis points shy of our 2019 adjusted operating margin. And we expect that our plans to bring the 777s back continue to gradually add back capacity and grow gauge are going to drive CASM-ex down significantly from their still COVID-elevated levels.

但我們對第二季度的基本預期僅比 2019 年調整後的營業利潤率低 350 個基點。我們預計，我們將 777 帶回來的計劃將繼續逐步增加容量並增加規格，這將使 CASM-ex 從仍處於 COVID 升高的水平顯著下降。

We're also confident that the robust business travel recovery still has a lot of room to run, and we anticipate improvement in long-haul Asia that is not yet reflected in our revenue results.

我們也相信，強勁的商務旅行複蘇仍有很大的空間，我們預計亞洲長途航線的改善尚未反映在我們的收入結果中。

That means we're more confident than ever that we'll meet or exceed our approximately 9% adjusted pretax margin target for next year. And particularly with our view of the supply dynamics in both domestic and international, getting to at least our 14% target for 2026 seems pretty straightforward.

這意味著我們比以往任何時候都更有信心達到或超過明年調整後的約 9% 的稅前利潤率目標。尤其是考慮到我們對國內和國際供應動態的看法，實現我們在 2026 年至少達到 14% 的目標似乎非常簡單。

I've been in this industry for a long time now and seen some ups and lots of big downs. Looking back, there seems to be about once-in-a-decade opportunity, where the sentiment gets so bearish and the actual future outlook is so different from that sentiment that there's a significant outperformance for airline stocks for a few years.

我已經在這個行業工作了很長時間，看到了一些起起落落。回首過去，似乎有十年一遇的機會，市場情緒變得如此悲觀，而實際的未來前景與這種情緒大相徑庭，以至於航空股在幾年內都有顯著的表現。

I think supply constraints, pilots being the biggest one, means that this is that time again. And when that's happened in the past, the whole industry tends to do well, but usually 1 or 2 airlines do much better than the rest of the pack.

我認為供應限制，飛行員是最大的限制，意味著這又是一次。過去發生這種情況時，整個行業往往表現良好，但通常只有 1 或 2 家航空公司的表現比其他航空公司好得多。

We've already listed the reasons above, and I suppose I'm not entirely objective, but it sure seems like United is a bet you want to make in that environment.

我們已經列出了上面的原因，我想我並不完全客觀，但看起來曼聯確實是你想在那種環境下下的賭注。

Before I turn it over to Brett, I want to congratulate our CFO, Gerry Laderman, on becoming a first-time grandfather. I'm sure you'll hear the excitement in his voice later today. Well, maybe not. But I promise you, Gerry is really excited. And congratulations to that cute baby, grandson. Brett?

在我把它交給 Brett 之前，我要祝賀我們的首席財務官 Gerry Laderman 成為第一次成為祖父。我相信你會在今天晚些時候聽到他聲音中的興奮。好吧，也許不是。但我向你保證，格里真的很興奮。祝賀那個可愛的寶寶，孫子。布雷特？

Thanks, Scott. Last month, we were honored to be included in Time's 100 Most Influential Companies for 2022. Our placement on Time's list, last quarter, coincided with the announcement of Scott's appointment to the Homeland Security Advisory Council and the White House's announcement of my appointment to President Biden's Board of Advisors on Historically Black Colleges and Universities.

謝謝，斯科特。上個月，我們很榮幸被列入《時代》雜誌 2022 年最具影響力的 100 家公司。上個季度，我們在《時代》雜誌的榜單上名列前茅，恰逢斯科特被任命為國土安全諮詢委員會成員，白宮也宣布我被任命為總統拜登的歷史上黑人學院和大學顧問委員會。

United continues to be firmly committed to being a leader in corporate America and investing in the future of our company for both customers and employees. We're proud to be recognized for the hard work, the entire United family, over the last year.

美聯航繼續堅定地致力於成為美國企業界的領導者，並為客戶和員工投資我們公司的未來。我們很自豪能夠因過去一年中整個美聯航大家庭的辛勤工作而獲得認可。

Becoming the best airline means not only being an industry leader on safety and innovation but also reliably getting our customers where they want to go on time and with their bags.

成為最好的航空公司不僅意味著成為安全和創新方面的行業領導者，而且還意味著可靠地將我們的客戶帶上他們的行李準時到達他們想去的地方。

Throughout the pandemic, and during the recent recovery, the commercial aviation system has been stressed by supply chain constraints and staffing shortfalls at the FAA, TSA and airport vendors, among other factors, all of which tests the stability of every airline's operation.

在整個大流行期間以及最近的複蘇期間，商業航空系統一直受到供應鏈限制和 FAA、TSA 和機場供應商人員短缺等因素的壓力，所有這些都考驗著每家航空公司運營的穩定性。

Some airlines built larger schedules that tested the limits of what they could operate, leaving their customers and their reputation to pay the price.

一些航空公司製定了更大的時間表，以測試他們可以運營的極限，讓他們的客戶和他們的聲譽付出代價。

United shows a different path. We anticipated many of these challenges, even taking steps on our own to mitigate them. Importantly, we also made a conscious decision to prioritize our operational reliability by limiting the size of our schedule.

曼聯展示了一條不同的道路。我們預見到了其中的許多挑戰，甚至採取了我們自己的措施來緩解這些挑戰。重要的是，我們還做出了一個有意識的決定，通過限制我們的日程安排來優先考慮我們的運營可靠性。

That decision may have cost us some profits in the near term, but it's the right long-term decision for our customers, our company and the bottom line. We'll continue to use that approach as we plan to add capacity in the months ahead.

這一決定可能在短期內讓我們損失了一些利潤，但對於我們的客戶、我們的公司和利潤來說，這是一個正確的長期決定。我們將繼續使用這種方法，因為我們計劃在未來幾個月增加容量。

In recent weeks, the people of United and our customers have come together to assist the people of Ukraine. United has donated $100,000 and more than 2 million frequent flyer miles to help transport relief workers and supplies to those on the front line of the crisis. As early as March, we announced fund raising efforts to support our humanitarian relief partners.

最近幾週，美聯航員工和我們的客戶齊聚一堂，為烏克蘭人民提供幫助。美聯航捐贈了 100,000 美元和超過 200 萬飛行常客里程，以幫助向處於危機前線的人們運送救援人員和物資。早在 3 月，我們就宣布籌款以支持我們的人道主義救援夥伴。

And our customers stepped up (inaudible) as they so often do. They donated 12.6 million frequent flyer miles and nearly $0.5 million to provide healthcare, shelter, food and other life-saving services to refugees. We appreciate our customers' generosity and are proud to team with them to support the victims of the conflict in Ukraine.

我們的客戶像往常一樣加強了（聽不清）。他們捐贈了 1260 萬飛行常客里程和近 50 萬美元，用於為難民提供醫療保健、住所、食物和其他挽救生命的服務。我們感謝客戶的慷慨解囊，並為與他們合作支持烏克蘭衝突的受害者而感到自豪。

We continue to make progress towards our hiring needs as we look towards United Next. This January, we celebrated opening our Aviate Academy in Arizona and welcome the next generation of pilots to the United family. This flight training school is the first of its kind, and we believe it will help to maintain a pipeline of qualified pilot candidates for United as our industry looks to combat the pilot shortage.

隨著我們展望 United Next，我們將繼續在招聘需求方面取得進展。今年一月，我們慶祝在亞利桑那州開設我們的航空學院，並歡迎下一代飛行員加入美聯航大家庭。這所飛行培訓學校是同類中的第一所，我們相信這將有助於為美聯航維持合格飛行員候選人的管道，因為我們的行業正在尋求解決飛行員短缺的問題。

We are particularly proud of providing the opportunity for aspiring pilots from diverse background to study and train at the Aviate Academy. Over the next 8 years, we plan to train 5,000 new pilots at Aviate, with the goal of at least half being women or people of color.

我們特別自豪地為來自不同背景的有抱負的飛行員提供在 Aviate Academy 學習和培訓的機會。在接下來的 8 年中，我們計劃在 Aviate 培訓 5,000 名新飛行員，目標是至少有一半是女性或有色人種。

We are also continuing our path as the industry leader in sustainability. United remains the only airline that is committed to becoming 100% green by reducing 100% of our greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 without relying on traditional carbon offsets. And in 2021, we established a strong midterm goal of reducing our carbon intensity to 50%, compared to 2019, by the year 2035.

我們還將繼續我們作為可持續發展行業領導者的道路。美聯航仍然是唯一一家致力於通過在 2050 年之前減少 100% 的溫室氣體排放而不依賴傳統的碳補償來實現 100% 環保的航空公司。在 2021 年，我們制定了一個強有力的中期目標，即到 2035 年，與 2019 年相比，我們的碳強度降低到 50%。

Our dedication to creating a greener tomorrow through real change is stronger than ever. We are investing in solutions that have the potential to actually reduce and ultimately remove the emissions from [flying]. In March, we announced a collaboration with Biotech (inaudible) to commercialize the production of sustainable aviation fuel.

我們致力於通過真正的變革創造更環保的明天，這一點比以往任何時候都更加堅定。我們正在投資有潛力真正減少並最終消除 [飛行] 排放的解決方案。 3 月，我們宣布與 Biotech（聽不清）合作，將可持續航空燃料的生產商業化。

While we are proud to have invested in more sustainable aviation production than any other airline in the world, we're also focused on making solutions like these scalable for the future.

雖然我們為投資於比世界上任何其他航空公司更可持續的航空生產而感到自豪，但我們也專注於為未來提供可擴展的此類解決方案。

We also continue to engage with cross-industry partners and policymakers to support the case for urgent climate action. Through these and other actions, we are committed to making a real difference in climate change.

我們還繼續與跨行業合作夥伴和政策制定者合作，以支持採取緊急氣候行動的理由。通過這些和其他行動，我們致力於為氣候變化帶來真正的改變。

A key part of our sustainability progress will be enabled by technology, but at United, we're also focused on using technology to enhance the travel experience.

我們可持續發展進程的一個關鍵部分將通過技術實現，但在美聯航，我們也專注於使用技術來提升旅行體驗。

Currently, nearly 3/4 of our customers use our app on the day of travel, a valuable tool that helps our customers manage their travel instead of having to call the contact center or speak with an agent. While this helps our employees to be more efficient, we know from our survey data that customers who use our mobile app, are more satisfied with their experience with United.

目前，我們近 3/4 的客戶在旅行當天使用我們的應用程序，這是一個有價值的工具，可幫助我們的客戶管理他們的旅行，而無需致電聯絡中心或與代理交談。雖然這有助於我們的員工提高效率，但我們從調查數據中了解到，使用我們移動應用程序的客戶對他們在美聯航的體驗更加滿意。

This is why we continue to invest in new features like enhanced flight search options, better visibility into flight credits, contactless payment through the United Wallet and a new bag drop shortcut, allowing you to [zip] through the airport lobby faster when you check a bag in the app before arriving at the airport.

這就是我們繼續投資新功能的原因，例如增強的航班搜索選項、更好地了解航班積分、通過 United Wallet 進行非接觸式支付和新的行李托運快捷方式，讓您在檢查行李時可以更快地 [zip] 通過機場大廳在到達機場之前在應用程序中打包。

As we adapt to COVID-19 becoming endemic, we need our customer and employee experience to reflect this new phase. We are pleased to see indoor mask requirements are now gone for 99% of the country as well as onboard domestic flights, select international flights, depending on arrival, countries mask requirements and at U.S. airports.

隨著我們適應 COVID-19 的流行，我們需要我們的客戶和員工體驗來反映這一新階段。我們很高興看到該國 99% 的地區以及機上國內航班、部分國際航班（具體取決於到達、國家/地區的口罩要求和美國機場）現已取消室內口罩要求。

We strongly believe the administration should eliminate the predeparture testing requirements for transportation as well. While travel demand is surging, we believe eliminating these requirements will ease the travel experience for our customers.

我們堅信政府也應該取消對運輸的出發前測試要求。雖然旅行需求激增，但我們相信消除這些要求將減輕我們客戶的旅行體驗。

In closing, I would like to express appreciation to our entire United team, who has been critical throughout this inflection point. While we've always remained committed to our United Next strategy, the recent momentum and demand environment gives us even more confidence in United's path forward. I'll now hand it over to Andrew to discuss this in more detail.

最後，我想對我們整個曼聯團隊表示感謝，他們在這個拐點期間一直很關鍵。雖然我們一直致力於我們的 United Next 戰略，但最近的勢頭和需求環境讓我們對 United 的前進道路更有信心。我現在將把它交給 Andrew 來更詳細地討論這個問題。

Thanks, Brett. I normally start each earnings call with an update on the previous quarter's revenue performance. However, today, it just seems more appropriate to start off with our Q2 outlook. We clearly passed a major inflection point with demand and yields and have a confident view of the future.

謝謝，布雷特。我通常在每次財報電話會議開始時都會更新上一季度的收入表現。然而，今天，從我們的第二季度展望開始似乎更合適。我們顯然已經過了需求和產量的一個主要拐點，並對未來充滿信心。

Q2 TRASM is expected to be up 17% versus Q2 of '19. A step-change increase from our Q1 TRASM was down 3%. We're confident that United is currently set up to achieve record TRASM and revenue results in the second quarter. The revenue inflection point started in March with TRASM up 9% versus 2019.

第二季度 TRASM 預計將比 19 年第二季度增長 17%。我們的第一季度 TRASM 的階梯式增長下降了 3%。我們相信，美聯航目前已準備好在第二季度實現創紀錄的 TRASM 和收入結果。收入拐點始於 3 月，TRASM 與 2019 年相比增長了 9%。

Revenue momentum is coming from just about every category, including higher yields, ancillary seat sales, strong premium leisure demand, MileagePlus, rebound in business demand and a record [sudden] season across the Atlantic this summer. Even parts of Asia are rebounding.

收入勢頭幾乎來自每個類別，包括更高的收益、輔助座位銷售、強勁的高端休閒需求、前程萬里 (MileagePlus)、商業需求的反彈以及今年夏天橫跨大西洋的創紀錄的[突然]季節。甚至亞洲部分地區也在反彈。

We often have talked about United's high exposure to business traffic and the resulting headwind that the pandemic caused. United produced industry-leading TRASM results during most of the pandemic, even when faced with this substantial headwind.

我們經常談到美聯航在商業流量中的高風險敞口以及由此帶來的大流行帶來的逆風。在大流行的大部分時間裡，即使面臨如此巨大的逆風，美聯航也取得了行業領先的 TRASM 結果。

Now, with business traffic rapidly recovering, I expect United to have a tailwind versus more leisure-focused carriers, a fact, I think, we can see in our Q2 guidance.

現在，隨著商業流量的迅速恢復，我預計美聯航與更多以休閒為重點的航空公司相比會順風順水，我認為，我們可以在第二季度的指導中看到這一事實。

Business revenue for the last few weeks has been down about 30%, with the last week now down only 20% versus the same period in 2019. Large corporations are now returning to travel at a faster rate than small. This is really important to United's Q2 outlook. As of last week, business yields are now close to up 10% ahead of 2019.

過去幾週的業務收入下降了約 30%，與 2019 年同期相比，上週僅下降了 20%。大公司現在以比小公司更快的速度恢復旅行。這對曼聯的第二季度前景非常重要。截至上週，企業收益率現在接近 2019 年的 10%。

Given these revenue trends, business TRASM contribution is expected to be approximately 100% of 2019 levels soon. After all the debates about the return of business traffic, it's nice to see this important milestone inside, even with many businesses not fully back in the office.

鑑於這些收入趨勢，預計業務 TRASM 的貢獻將很快達到 2019 年水平的 100%。在所有關於業務流量回歸的辯論之後，很高興看到這個重要的里程碑，即使許多企業還沒有完全回到辦公室。

Demand for business, leisure and cargo traffic continues to be strong, even as we pass on 100% of the fuel price increase versus '19. The United bookings for Q2 are strong, and we believe we still have sufficient room to sell peak period travel at robust yield.

對商務、休閒和貨運交通的需求繼續強勁，即使我們將 100% 的燃油價格漲幅與 19 年相比。美聯航第二季度的預訂量強勁，我們相信我們仍有足夠的空間以高收益銷售高峰期旅行。

Yield momentum is generally very strong across most of our regions. Across the Atlantic, we expect to grow by 25% this summer, becoming the largest airline in that region for the first time.

我們大部分地區的收益率勢頭普遍非常強勁。在大西洋彼岸，我們預計今年夏天將增長 25%，首次成為該地區最大的航空公司。

We also see momentum in Australia and many other countries that have opened their borders and expect further gains when the inbound U.S. [test] requirements are relaxed. In Q2, we expect to operate Pacific capacity down about 65% versus '19 and Latin American capacity up 9% versus '19.

我們還看到澳大利亞和許多其他已開放邊境的國家的勢頭，並預計當美國入境 [測試] 要求放寬時會進一步受益。在第二季度，我們預計太平洋地區的運力比 19 年下降約 65%，拉丁美洲的運力比 19 年增長 9%。

Cargo continues to produce strong results, with revenues up 26% in Q1 of 2022 versus 2021 and up 119% versus 2019. Ocean shipping and supply chain disruptions continue to boost our revenue outlook for cargo.

貨運繼續取得強勁業績，2022 年第一季度的收入與 2021 年相比增長 26%，與 2019 年相比增長 119%。海運和供應鏈中斷繼續提振我們的貨運收入前景。

During the pandemic, we found many traditional United structural advantages, including our business-centric [postal] health and long-haul network to be temporary disadvantages.

在大流行期間，我們發現美聯航的許多傳統結構優勢，包括我們以業務為中心的 [郵政] 健康和長途網絡，都是暫時的劣勢。

United's network during the pandemic, even with all the changes we implemented, was simply less focused on domestic markets, small communities, Florida and near Latin America, which all performed better during the pandemic. And our Pratt & Whitney 777s were grounded, which meant we couldn't take full advantage of strength to and from Hawaii.

大流行期間美聯航的網絡，即使我們實施了所有改變，也只是不太關注國內市場、小社區、佛羅里達州和拉丁美洲附近，這些在大流行期間都表現得更好。我們的普惠 777 飛機停飛了，這意味著我們無法充分利用往返夏威夷的力量。

Imagine now United's revenue potential in the context of our Q2 guide on areas which have been structural advantages, including business traffic, coastal gateways and global long haul, fully bounced back, combined with a new, moderate and fuel-efficient fleet.

現在想像一下，在我們的第二季度指南的背景下，美聯航的收入潛力在具有結構性優勢的領域（包括商業交通、沿海門戶和全球長途航線）完全反彈，並結合了新的、適中且省油的機隊。

Imagine the United were 50-seat single-class jets only fly to small communities and don't compete against competitor's operating mainline jets at a fraction of the unit cost. Imagine a world where United offers premium seats everywhere our competitors do, when in the past, we often had none. We have a hard time imagining these things and the impact on our revenues.

想像一下，美聯航是 50 座單艙噴氣式飛機，隻飛往小社區，不以單位成本的一小部分與競爭對手運營的干線噴氣式飛機競爭。想像一下這樣一個世界，在我們的競爭對手所到之處，美聯航都提供高級座位，而在過去，我們常常沒有。我們很難想像這些事情以及對我們收入的影響。

I just want to point you to our Q2 revenue guide. Global long-haul flying is an area where we have a structural advantage. Opening of the border is transformational for us. We are confident that retaining all of our wide-body jets during the pandemic was the right call. As we think about growth potential for the long haul, we remain bullish on all of the long-haul opportunities.

我只想向您指出我們的第二季度收入指南。全球長途飛行是我們具有結構優勢的領域。邊境開放對我們來說是變革性的。我們相信，在大流行期間保留我們所有的寬體噴氣式飛機是正確的選擇。當我們考慮長期增長潛力時，我們仍然看好所有長期機會。

I've often talked about the challenges we expect on the domestic front in the coming years, with supply growing faster than demand. However, we increasingly doubt the ability of the industry to execute on previously planned growth levels. There is no single fix to issues constraining capacity, and as a result, there's no quick fix.

我經常談到我們預計未來幾年國內方面的挑戰，供應增長快於需求。然而，我們越來越懷疑該行業是否有能力在先前計劃的增長水平上執行。限制容量的問題沒有單一的解決方案，因此，沒有快速解決方案。

At a macro level, we expect less supply in the coming years. However, we still expect industry capacity growth to be more elevated in Florida, smaller communities, where United has less exposure.

在宏觀層面上，我們預計未來幾年供應會減少。然而，我們仍然預計佛羅里達州的行業容量增長會更高，這些社區較小，美聯航在這些地區的曝光率較低。

With this updated domestic outlook, our view of the revenue performance and profitability of domestic flying has improved. We have confidence in our ability to execute our United Next plan with known constraints, the largest, of course, being the pilot shortage.

隨著這一更新的國內前景，我們對國內飛行的收入表現和盈利能力的看法有所改善。我們有信心在已知限制條件下執行我們的 United Next 計劃，其中最大的限制當然是飛行員短缺。

The pandemic delayed many of our commercial initiatives, including the full rollout of Premium Plus and Polaris cabins on the long-haul fleet. But today, we are nearing the end of these projects, so that we have a consistent and leading product. We continue to offer basic economy with even more flexibility to our customers seeking the best possible price.

大流行推遲了我們的許多商業計劃，包括在長途機隊中全面推出 Premium Plus 和 Polaris 客艙。但是今天，我們即將結束這些項目，因此我們擁有一致且領先的產品。我們繼續為尋求最優惠價格的客戶提供更加靈活的基本經濟。

Our investments in planes, clubs and gates will be transformational. We'll provide our customers with choices that others don't offer, across multiple product types and desired service levels, along with the very best global network and the very best partners of any U.S. carrier.

我們對飛機、俱樂部和登機口的投資將是變革性的。我們將為我們的客戶提供其他人無法提供的選擇，涵蓋多種產品類型和所需的服務水平，以及最好的全球網絡和任何美國運營商的最佳合作夥伴。

I wanted to thank the entire United team for their dedication over the last 2 years. We're set up well for the future, and that future begins today. With that, I will hand it off to Gerry.

我要感謝整個曼聯團隊在過去 2 年中的奉獻。我們為未來做好了準備，而這個未來從今天開始。有了這個，我會把它交給格里。

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. For the first quarter of 2022, we reported a pretax loss and an adjusted pretax loss of around $1.8 billion. Our CASM-ex ended the quarter in line with the guidance we provided last month, at up 18% versus first quarter 2019.

謝謝，安德魯，大家早上好。 2022 年第一季度，我們報告了約 18 億美元的稅前虧損和調整後的稅前虧損。我們的 CASM-ex 在本季度結束時與我們上個月提供的指導一致，與 2019 年第一季度相比增長了 18%。

Looking ahead, even with the elevated fuel prices, which we expect to persist for a while, right now, we are seeing our revenue more than cover the increased fuel cost, and as a result, we expect to achieve meaningful pretax income in the second quarter. Furthermore, based on our current revenue expectations, we also expect to produce a pretax profit for the full year 2022.

展望未來，即使燃料價格上漲（我們預計這將持續一段時間），目前，我們看到我們的收入超過了增加的燃料成本，因此，我們預計第二年將實現可觀的稅前收入四分之一。此外，根據我們目前的收入預期，我們還預計 2022 年全年將產生稅前利潤。

We currently expect our CASM-ex to be up around 16% in the second quarter on capacity, down around 13%, both versus the second quarter of 2019. We also expect that our unit costs will continue to sequentially improve over the remaining quarters of 2022 as the 52 grounded 777 aircraft returned to normal service.

我們目前預計我們的 CASM-ex 在第二季度的產能將增長約 16%，與 2019 年第二季度相比下降約 13%。我們還預計，我們的單位成本將在剩餘的幾個季度繼續改善2022 年，52 架停飛的 777 飛機恢復正常服務。

We start to take delivery of additional large narrow-body aircraft and our aircraft utilization increases. We believe these capacity levers will drive a step function change in CASM-ex through 2022 as the relationship between our capacity growth and CASM-ex improvement continues to meet our expectations.

我們開始接收更多的大型窄體飛機，我們的飛機利用率增加。我們相信這些產能槓桿將在 2022 年之前推動 CASM-ex 的階梯函數變化，因為我們的產能增長與 CASM-ex 改進之間的關係繼續滿足我們的預期。

Our team has done a tremendous job managing all the costs under our control, and we expect that focus to continue. However, the impact of continuing elevated inflation and the exact timing of the 777 return to service generally makes precise forecasting difficult. Nonetheless, we are confident that our CASM-ex exit rate for the year will set us up well for 2023 and beyond.

我們的團隊在管理我們控制的所有成本方面做得非常出色，我們希望這種關注能夠繼續下去。然而，持續高漲的通貨膨脹的影響以及 777 恢復服務的確切時間通常使準確預測變得困難。儘管如此，我們相信我們今年的 CASM-ex 退出率將使我們為 2023 年及以後做好準備。

Turning to fleet. As you know, new aircraft deliveries constitute the vast majority of our capital expenditures. We are reducing our adjusted CapEx expectations for the year by approximately $600 million to $5.3 billion as a result of supply chain and manufacturing challenges pushing some of our expected 787 and 737 MAX deliveries from this year to next year.

轉向艦隊。如您所知，新飛機交付占我們資本支出的絕大部分。由於供應鍊和製造挑戰將我們預期的一些 787 和 737 MAX 交付從今年推遲到明年，我們將調整後的今年資本支出預期降低約 6 億美元至 53 億美元。

While it is difficult to say with precision how many aircraft may fly, right now, we are assuming 2 of 8 787s and 7 of 53 737 MAXs will slip to 2023. Those aircraft will join the 737 MAX 8, 9 and 10 as well as Airbus A321neos we expect to take delivery of next year.

雖然很難準確地說有多少飛機可以飛行，但目前，我們假設 8 787 中的 2 架和 53 737 MAX 中的 7 架將滑到 2023 年。這些飛機將加入 737 MAX 8、9 和 10 以及空客 A321neos 我們預計將於明年接收。

Bringing into our fleet, the aircraft we have on order is critical to the success of United Next and to our ability to continue to bring meaningful improvements in both CASM-ex and fuel efficiency.

將我們訂購的飛機納入我們的機隊對於 United Next 的成功以及我們繼續在 CASM-ex 和燃油效率方面進行有意義的改進的能力至關重要。

Turning to balance sheet and cash. We ended the quarter with $20 billion in available liquidity. Our Treasurer, Pam Hendry, and I regularly discuss our optimal level of cash. Now, keep in mind, we have both been around the industry for a long time, so it is difficult for us to think in terms of too much cash.

轉向資產負債表和現金。我們在本季度結束時擁有 200 億美元的可用流動性。我們的財務主管 Pam Hendry 和我經常討論我們的最佳現金水平。現在，請記住，我們都在這個行業工作了很長時間，所以我們很難考慮太多的現金。

However, it is fair to say that as the recovery continues, you will see us reduce our cash as we begin the deleveraging journey. In fact, we started this journey in the first quarter as we elected to prepay an unsecured maturity, previously scheduled for repayment later this year, in addition to making our normally scheduled principal payments.

然而，公平地說，隨著復甦的繼續，您將看到我們在開始去槓桿化之旅時減少現金。事實上，我們在第一季度開始了這一旅程，因為我們選擇預付無抵押到期，除了按正常安排的本金支付外，原定於今年晚些時候還款。

This resulted in our total debt declining by over $700 million during the quarter. Furthermore, in the first quarter, United produced $1.5 billion of cash flow from operations, driven largely by an over $2 billion increase in our advanced ticket liability. We're pleased that our operating cash generation is approaching 2019 levels as an additional indication of the recovery's progress.

這導致我們的總債務在本季度減少了 7 億多美元。此外，在第一季度，美聯航從運營中產生了 15 億美元的現金流，這主要是由於我們的預付機票負債增加了超過 20 億美元。我們很高興我們的運營現金產生量接近 2019 年的水平，這進一步表明了復甦的進展。

I want to close by reiterating our confidence in our 2023 and 2026 earnings targets. We remain committed to achieving an adjusted pretax margin of approximately 9% next year and continue to have confidence in our 2026 target of about 14%, representing profitability well above 2019 levels.

最後，我想重申我們對 2023 年和 2026 年盈利目標的信心。我們仍致力於明年實現約 9% 的調整後稅前利潤率，並繼續對我們 2026 年約 14% 的目標充滿信心，這意味著盈利能力遠高於 2019 年的水平。

As we move into the second quarter, I want to thank my finance team for their dedication to remaining nimble and focused on our long-term goals. Our profitability outlook for both the second quarter and full year is a welcome milestone for all of us as we redouble our focus on United's path ahead.

隨著我們進入第二季度，我要感謝我的財務團隊致力於保持敏捷並專注於我們的長期目標。我們第二季度和全年的盈利前景對我們所有人來說都是一個值得歡迎的里程碑，因為我們會加倍關注曼聯的前進道路。

Looking even further ahead, since Scott mentioned my newborn grandson Ezra, I can tell you that I am now more focused than ever to ensure that when Ezra grows up, he will recognize United as the airline people want to fly and where employees are proud to work and perhaps, most importantly, for his generation, the airline that has met all of its commitments to the environment.

展望未來，自從 Scott 提到我剛出生的孫子 Ezra，我可以告訴你，我現在比以往任何時候都更加專注於確保 Ezra 長大後，他會認識到美聯航是人們想要乘坐的航空公司，也是員工為之自豪的航空公司工作，也許最重要的是，對於他這一代人來說，這家航空公司已經履行了對環境的所有承諾。

And with that, I'll pass it to Emily to start the Q&A.

有了這個，我會將它傳遞給 Emily 以開始問答。

Thanks, Gerry. We will now take questions from the analyst community. (Operator Instructions) Brandon, please describe the procedure to ask a question.

謝謝，格里。我們現在將回答分析師社區的問題。 （操作員說明）布蘭登，請描述提問的程序。

(Operator Instructions) And from Raymond James, we have Savi Syth.

（操作員說明）還有來自 Raymond James，我們有 Savi Syth。

Just given the pilot commentary on the call, I'm just kind of curious, what role you see your regional partners playing and what that means to your, kind of, hub-and-spoke strategy?

剛剛給出了電話會議的試點評論，我只是有點好奇，你認為你的區域合作夥伴扮演什麼角色，這對你的中心輻射戰略意味著什麼？

Hi, Savi. It's Andrew. When we developed the United Next plan a while ago, we assumed that there would be a much smaller contribution of regional flying in the plan, and we're marching down that road. It is more accelerated than we planned, but it is kind of where we thought this was going a while ago. So I think we're fine with that.

嗨，薩維。是安德魯。當我們不久前製定 United Next 計劃時，我們假設該計劃中區域飛行的貢獻要小得多，我們正在沿著這條道路前進。它比我們計劃的要快，但這是我們不久前認為的那樣。所以我認為我們對此很好。

And I think we are [rejuvenating] the network, is probably the best term, to make sure that we can generate the appropriate level of revenues with this new service level in the smaller communities. And I think our outlook for Q2 says we're actually doing that really well. And so our reliance on regional jets is going to be dramatically lower in the future.

而且我認為我們正在 [振興] 網絡，這可能是最好的術語，以確保我們可以在較小的社區中通過這種新的服務水平產生適當的收入水平。我認為我們對第二季度的展望表明我們實際上做得非常好。因此，未來我們對支線飛機的依賴將會大大降低。

That being said, we still plan to operate close to 300 of these aircraft, most of them being large regional jets in the future, along with our CRJ-550s. And so they have a spot at United, flying to smaller communities because that is the right aircraft but just a lot less than what it used to be.

話雖如此，我們仍計劃運營近 300 架此類飛機，其中大部分是未來的大型支線噴氣式飛機，以及我們的 CRJ-550。所以他們在美聯航有一席之地，飛往較小的社區，因為那是合適的飛機，但比以前少了很多。

Makes sense. And talking about, Andrew, just to follow up a little bit. Could you -- that's really helpful, kind of, revenue color, but I was just curious on the peak versus off-peak performance because that was a trend that you saw really strong peaks and maybe off-peak is not as strong. How you're thinking about it as we exit the peak summer travel period?

說得通。談到，安德魯，只是為了跟進一點。你能 - 這真的很有幫助，有點，收入顏色，但我只是對高峰與非高峰表現感到好奇，因為這是一個趨勢，你看到了非常強勁的高峰，也許非高峰並不那麼強。當我們退出夏季旅遊高峰期時，您是怎麼想的？

I think we're going to see -- I think one of the most important things I said earlier was the [RASM] from business travel is actually approaching and will be 100% in 2019. So we now view business traffic as almost fully returned, particularly given the level of capacity that [we're] often in the marketplace.

我想我們會看到——我認為我之前說的最重要的事情之一是商務旅行的 [RASM] 實際上正在接近，並將在 2019 年達到 100%。所以我們現在認為商務交通幾乎完全恢復，特別是考慮到 [我們] 經常在市場上的容量水平。

As we exit the summer, we will rely more on business traffic, and we have a high degree of confidence that, that's just going to be perfectly fine, and we're going to continue to accelerate as we go through the fourth quarter, with October being an incredibly strong business month, given where we see business trends today.

隨著夏天的結束，我們將更多地依賴商業流量，我們非常有信心，一切都會好起來的，隨著我們進入第四季度，我們將繼續加速，鑑於我們今天看到的商業趨勢，10 月是一個非常強勁的商業月。

So we're very bullish on business. And again, it's nice to see after all of the debate about how much would come back and when it would come back that we are approaching 100% from a revenue recovery.

所以我們非常看好生意。再一次，很高興看到在所有關於多少會回來以及何時會回來的辯論之後，我們正接近 100% 的收入恢復。

And we have a long way to go because the offices have not fully returned yet. Everybody is still not in their office. So we think there's actually more upside there than maybe a lot of people thought just a few months ago.

我們還有很長的路要走，因為辦公室還沒有完全恢復。每個人都還沒有在辦公室。所以我們認為那裡實際上比幾個月前很多人認為的要多。

(inaudible) Please go ahead.

（聽不清）請繼續。

I realize that earnings and margins matter the most, but a lot's changed since the United Next plan. And puts and takes are, kind of, evolving. When you look at the United Next plan, where are you willing to be the most flexible with? Like it just seems that the CASM-ex target is just too correlated to deliveries, and that's the most impressive...

我意識到收入和利潤率最重要，但自從 United Next 計劃以來發生了很多變化。並且puts和takes在某種程度上是不斷發展的。當您查看 United Next 計劃時，您願意在哪裡最靈活？就像 CASM-ex 目標似乎與交付過於相關，這是最令人印象深刻的......

Again, I realize that margins matter the most and all that stuff. But just how do you plan on navigating the timing issues of some of those stuff?

再一次，我意識到利潤是最重要的。但是，您打算如何解決其中一些問題的時間問題？

I'll start and then let Gerry add. You're absolutely right that margins matter the most. And things have changed a little bit. But the basic vision, the basic strategy remains intact. And inflation is higher than we thought. We built high inflation in over a year ago, and we thought we were being conservative, but I think everyone has been surprised by how high inflation has been.

我先開始，然後讓 Gerry 添加。您絕對正確，邊距最重要。事情發生了一些變化。但基本的願景、基本的戰略依然完好無損。而且通貨膨脹比我們想像的要高。一年多前我們建立了高通脹，我們認為我們是保守的，但我認為每個人都對高通脹感到驚訝。

So inflation is higher than we thought. We even got -- like this year, we got a full point of CASM-ex headwind from revenue-related expenses, which is a good reason to have higher CASM. So we do have higher inflation pressures.

所以通貨膨脹比我們想像的要高。我們甚至得到了 - 就像今年一樣，我們從與收入相關的費用中得到了全部的 CASM-ex 逆風，這是擁有更高 CASM 的一個很好的理由。所以我們確實有更高的通脹壓力。

We also have, separately, timing issues. This is principally around the 777, to a lesser degree, Boeing deliveries. But the 777 is our biggest, lowest-CASM airplane, and that is going to be a step function change, once we get that full fleet back up and flying. We just don't know for sure what it's going to happen. It's taken longer than we had hoped.

我們也有單獨的時間問題。這主要是圍繞 777，在較小程度上是波音交付。但 777 是我們最大、最低 CASM 的飛機，一旦我們讓整個機隊恢復並飛行，這將是一個階梯式的功能變化。我們只是不確定會發生什麼。花費的時間比我們希望的要長。

So there's timing issues, but the [absolute] level will be higher just because of inflation, I think. But the important point is, the real structural drivers that are important there for margin are how we are going to be growing gauge and what gauge and growth mean.

所以存在時間問題，但我認為，僅僅因為通貨膨脹，[絕對]水平會更高。但重要的一點是，對利潤率很重要的真正結構性驅動因素是我們將如何增長計量以及計量和增長意味著什麼。

And so I think the inflation raises the bar, the tide for everyone. And what we already see happening right now, that tends to impact low-cost carriers more than it impacts us. It means that we more than recover 100% of inflationary cost increases.

所以我認為通貨膨脹提高了標準，對每個人來說都是潮流。我們現在已經看到正在發生的事情，這往往對低成本航空公司的影響大於對我們的影響。這意味著我們可以收回超過 100% 的通脹成本增長。

And so the most important thing is, what sort of happens, I think, to the relative CASM. And there's nothing that's changed about that because it's mostly about gauge. Most of that is just gauge growth, and that's just the math. We're the last big airline to do it, and that's just math of what's coming.

所以最重要的是，我認為相對 CASM 會發生什麼樣的情況。並且沒有什麼改變，因為它主要是關於儀表的。其中大部分只是衡量增長，這只是數學。我們是最後一家這樣做的大型航空公司，這只是即將發生的事情的數學計算。

But I also think what's encouraging, you've mentioned margin. The fact that we're 350 basis points already away from 2019 margins with whatever you think the CASM-ex number is going to ultimately get to, however high inflation is, it's going to be meaningfully better than the 16% we have in this quarter. And that's going to go straight to the margin.

但我也認為令人鼓舞的是，你提到了保證金。事實上，無論您認為 CASM-ex 數字最終會達到什麼水平，我們已經距離 2019 年的利潤率 350 個基點，無論通貨膨脹率有多高，它都將明顯好於我們本季度的 16% .這將直接進入邊緣。

In the revenue environment, look, I think we're in the first -- this is really kind of the coming-out party for the real return of business travel and international travel in this quarter. We are in the first inning of that recovery and got to be upside on revenue as well. That's why just barring something bad happening in the world, 2023 getting to 2019 margin levels seems pretty easy. Gerry?

在收入環境中，看，我認為我們處於第一 - 這確實是本季度商務旅行和國際旅行真正回歸的一種即將到來的聚會。我們正處於復甦的第一局，收入也必須上漲。這就是為什麼除非世界上發生不好的事情，2023 年達到 2019 年的利潤率水平似乎很容易。格里？

Yes. Just to give you a little bit more comfort, so in a world where what we're seeing continues for a while, this sort of high single-digit inflation, that really only translates to a couple of percent on CASM-ex. And as Scott said, revenue is more than making up for that.

是的。只是為了給你一點安慰，所以在一個我們所看到的持續一段時間的世界裡，這種高個位數的通貨膨脹，實際上只轉化為 CASM-ex 的幾個百分點。正如斯科特所說，收入不僅僅是彌補這一點。

So you're not going to see dramatically different numbers on CASM-ex. But everything we're seeing, makes us very comfortable that those margin targets are going to be achieved.

所以你不會在 CASM-ex 上看到顯著不同的數字。但是我們所看到的一切都讓我們對實現這些利潤目標感到非常滿意。

Okay. Great. And then I think next year -- there seems to be a misconception with your deliveries next year on the MAXs that they're like all MAX 10 aircraft. And I [hope] that's the case, but you guys haven't quantified how many deliveries you're expecting from the MAX 10 version.

好的。偉大的。然後我認為明年 - 您明年在 MAX 上的交付似乎存在一種誤解，即它們就像所有 MAX 10 飛機一樣。我 [希望] 是這樣，但你們還沒有量化 MAX 10 版本的預期交付量。

Can you provide a number for that for 2023? And then, if there is a delay, what's the optionality that you have to kind of backfill some of that capacity or deliveries in next year, specifically?

你能提供一個 2023 年的數字嗎？然後，如果有延遲，你有什麼選擇可以在明年回填一些產能或交付？

Yes. So we can't be specific because we don't know exactly when the first MAX 10 delivery will be, and that then dictates how many. But we never had a plan to take all of next year's deliveries as MAX 10. In fact, it was less than half of the deliveries for next year. .

是的。所以我們不能具體說明，因為我們不知道第一個 MAX 10 交付的確切時間，然後決定了多少。但我們從來沒有計劃將明年的所有交付量都用作 MAX 10。事實上，它還不到明年交付量的一半。 .

And so we'll wait and see. I am confident we'll get the MAX 10. But you should talk to Boeing about the exact timing of when that first MAX 10 will be delivered.

因此，我們將拭目以待。我相信我們會得到 MAX 10。但是你應該和波音公司談談第一架 MAX 10 交付的確切時間。

In the -- but in terms of flexibility, they are producing plenty of MAX 8 to 9s for us. And so there can always be a little bit of a shift in timing of when 9s or 8s are delivered versus 10s. But we're comfortable, we're going to take 8s, 9s and 10s next year.

在——但就靈活性而言，他們為我們生產了大量的 MAX 8 到 9。因此，9 秒或 8 秒的交付時間與 10 秒的交付時間總是會有一點變化。但我們很舒服，明年我們將採用 8s、9s 和 10s。

From Evercore ISI, we have Duane Pfennigwerth.

來自 Evercore ISI，我們有 Duane Pfennigwerth。

On the issue of constraints for United and the industry, can you talk about constraints for United this year? We've had some discussion in the past about aircraft delivery rate.

關於曼聯和行業的製約問題，你能談談今年曼聯的製約因素嗎？我們過去曾討論過飛機交付率。

But in terms of your specific, sort of, reduction in growth, how much of that is pilot-related versus aircraft delivery rate or the timing which you referred to on the 777s? And could you expand on why you think the industry is going to be short pilots for more than a little bit of time, more -- certainly more than 2022?

但就您具體的增長減少而言，與飛機交付率或您在 777 上提到的時間相比，有多少是與飛行員相關的？您能否詳細說明為什麼您認為該行業將在一段時間內成為空頭飛行員，更多時間——當然超過 2022 年？

Okay. I'll start, and Gerry or Andrew can add. The biggest issue that we have, well, first on capacity is, we don't have a labor shortage. We've hired 6,000 people this year. We're hiring 200 pilots a month. That's not an issue for us. The biggest issue is 777. That's 10% of our capacity, and they're grounded.

好的。我先開始，Gerry 或 Andrew 可以添加。我們最大的問題，首先是產能，我們沒有勞動力短缺。今年我們僱傭了 6000 人。我們每月招聘 200 名飛行員。這對我們來說不是問題。最大的問題是 777。這是我們容量的 10%，而且它們已停飛。

The other issue is just, we're realizing that the whole infrastructure is not set up to snap back to these rapid growth rates. I mean it's not just us. It's the FAA, TSA, fuel vendors. There's all -- even if we have enough people, which we do, all of those constraints get in the way of a reliable schedule.

另一個問題是，我們意識到整個基礎設施並沒有設置為快速恢復到這些快速增長的速度。我的意思是不只是我們。是 FAA、TSA、燃料供應商。就是這樣——即使我們有足夠的人，我們也這樣做了，但所有這些限制都會阻礙可靠的日程安排。

And we're just not willing -- we made so much progress with customers during the pandemic and really building the United brand. I think that's going to be the most enduring change that we're not willing to sacrifice that customer goodwill for the possibility of short-term profits.

而且我們只是不願意——我們在大流行期間與客戶取得瞭如此大的進步，並真正建立了聯合品牌。我認為這將是最持久的變化，我們不願意為了短期利潤的可能性而犧牲客戶的善意。

And so -- and month-to-date, we're #1 in on-time performance, #1 in completion factor. So it's paying off for our customers.

所以 - 到目前為止，我們在準時表現方面排名第一，在完成因素方面排名第一。因此，它為我們的客戶帶來了回報。

The pilot shortage, I'll just give you some numbers. So we did a deep dive on pilots because we're trying -- all of our regionals weren't able to hire and are having problems. And I think we've got 150 airplanes grounded right now. They're never going to come back, I assume.

飛行員短缺，我給你一些數字。所以我們對飛行員進行了深入研究，因為我們正在嘗試——我們所有的地區都無法僱用並且遇到了問題。我認為我們現在有 150 架飛機停飛。我想他們永遠不會回來了。

And so we did a really deep dive on it. It turns out that the industry over -- historically produces between 5,000 and 7,000 pilots a year, mostly closer to 5, but can produce up to 7,000 pilots per year, got a little lower therein COVID.

所以我們對它進行了非常深入的研究。事實證明，這個行業已經結束了——歷史上每年生產 5,000 到 7,000 名飛行員，大部分接近 5 名，但每年最多可以生產 7,000 名飛行員，在 COVID 中的水平要低一些。

This year, the industry's intent is to hire 13,000 pilots. And given the growth aspirations of other airlines, it's even more next year. But there are only 5,000 to 7,000 available. That was an epiphany for us.

今年，該行業的目標是僱傭 13,000 名飛行員。鑑於其他航空公司的增長願望，明年甚至會更高。但是只有 5,000 到 7,000 個可用。這對我們來說是一個頓悟。

And by the way, that probably can't be fixed quick. You could set up flight schools to get people to 25 hours and get their first license pretty easily. But they got to get from 25 hours to 1,500 hours, and that just doesn't exist today.

順便說一句，這可能無法快速解決。你可以建立飛行學校，讓人們在 25 小時內輕鬆獲得他們的第一個執照。但是他們必須從 25 小時增加到 1,500 小時，而這在今天是不存在的。

So in that 5,000 to 7,000, like over a few years, that 7,000 could probably go up. I don't think it's getting to 13,000 anytime in the next 5 or 6 years. When you look at that 5,000, if it's a 5,000, United Airlines is literally going to hire half of them. Half of them are coming to United Airlines. So this is, I think, underappreciated factor, and it's just not quick to fix.

因此，在這 5,000 到 7,000 人中，就像幾年後，那 7,000 人可能會上升。我認為在未來 5 或 6 年內不會達到 13,000。當您查看這 5,000 人時，如果是 5,000 人，聯合航空公司實際上將僱用其中的一半。其中一半將來到聯合航空公司。因此，我認為這是一個被低估的因素，而且修復起來並不快。

That's great detail, Scott. And I guess, along those lines, is this idea going to influence your capacity as well? So given the epiphany of this pilot math and your and a couple of others willing to really, kind of, protect the operation, does that influence more than 2022? Is that a 2023 influence as well and beyond? .

這是很好的細節，斯科特。我想，沿著這些思路，這個想法也會影響你的能力嗎？所以考慮到這個試點數學的頓悟，以及你和其他幾個願意真正保護行動的人，這會影響到 2022 年嗎？這是否也是 2023 年及以後的影響？ .

Not yet. We're focused on getting to where we can hire 200 pilots a month and successfully get them all through the training. All the upgrade is happening. I've watched. This pretty in the leads.

還沒有。我們專注於達到每月可以僱傭 200 名飛行員的目標，並成功地讓他們全部通過培訓。所有的升級都在進行。我看過。這很漂亮。

But if you read some of the blogs and what some of the other pilots here are saying, see a lot of struggle, it's not easy to upgrade, to build, to go from steady state kind of hiring to a step [function] increase.

但是，如果您閱讀了一些博客以及這裡的其他一些飛行員所說的話，就會發現很多困難，升級、構建、從穩定狀態的招聘到逐步增加 [功能] 並不容易。

And it's not just growth. There's so many retirements that have been going through COVID that everyone, sort of, has a step function increase. And it's amazing to read some of the stuff about the constraints that are happening to the other airlines. .

這不僅僅是增長。經歷了 COVID 的退休人數如此之多，以至於每個人都有一個階梯函數增加。閱讀一些關於其他航空公司正在發生的限制的內容真是太棒了。 .

We've gotten ahead of it. We had some bumps, by the way. We had some things where we were behind and had some bumps, but our team has gotten ahead of it and feel really good that we're going to hit the -- we can get the 200 pilots a month.

我們已經領先了。順便說一句，我們有一些顛簸。我們在一些事情上落後了，也遇到了一些障礙，但我們的團隊已經領先了，並且感覺非常好，我們將達到目標——我們每個月可以獲得 200 名飛行員。

But we've also learned a lot about having to meter it in. Like take the 777. We're going to go overnight from -- for 42 airplanes that are -- or 44 airplanes that are flying to 96. So we're going to more than double the fleet.

但我們也學到了很多關於必須計量它的知識。就像乘坐 777。我們將一夜之間從 - 42 架飛機 - 或 44 架飛往 96 的飛機。所以我們船隊將增加一倍以上。

Earlier, we thought we would ramp that in really quickly. We did not realize that's going to take time. This is part of the CASM timing issue. Like we're probably -- even if we get them done into this month, it will probably be 9 months before we get all of them flying.

早些時候，我們認為我們會很快實現這一目標。我們沒有意識到這需要時間。這是 CASM 時間問題的一部分。就像我們可能 - 即使我們在本月完成它們，也可能需要 9 個月才能讓它們全部飛行。

It's just going to take longer because the systems are just not set up to do it. And that's okay because it's just a timing issue. But we feel really good about our ability to hire. And I want to make sure we're executing solidly before we decide to go any faster.

只是需要更長的時間，因為系統還沒有設置好。這沒關係，因為這只是時間問題。但我們對自己的招聘能力感到非常滿意。而且我想確保在我們決定加快速度之前，我們執行得很好。

But I think it is a strategic advantage for United, in particular, we're the best place. If you're a pilot, like we are the best place to go. There's some other good ones and there are some that aren't good. I think it is a strategic advantage because it will be a shortage. It is a shortage.

但我認為這對曼聯來說是一個戰略優勢，尤其是我們是最好的地方。如果你是一名飛行員，我們是最好的去處。還有一些好的，也有一些不好的。我認為這是一種戰略優勢，因為它將是一種短缺。這是一種短缺。

From JPMorgan, we have Jamie Baker.

在摩根大通，我們有 Jamie Baker。

I was kind of hoping for a bullish call.

我有點希望看到一個看漲的電話。

Always got the best lines, Jamie.

傑米，總是有最好的台詞。

First question.

第一個問題。

I never want to get, though, is that all you got?

不過，我從不想得到，你得到的就這些嗎？

All right. Well, don't earn it.

好的。算了，別賺了。

I won't.

我不會。

My monosyllabic claim to fame, I suppose. A question for Andrew. Recognizing that Asian RASM was historically lower than system, is there a way to identify how much of the 17% RASM guide in the second quarter benefits from Asia still being shut down for the most part?

我想我的單音節聲名。安德魯的一個問題。認識到亞洲 RASM 歷史上低於系統，有沒有辦法確定第二季度 17% RASM 指南中有多少受益於亞洲大部分仍處於關閉狀態？

Good question. I don't have that number off the top of my head. But I can tell you, there are parts of Asia that are rebounding pretty rapidly, including Australia and Asia, and Korea is obviously in Asia. But Japan and China have not.

好問題。我腦子裡沒有那個數字。但我可以告訴你，亞洲有一些地區正在迅速反彈，包括澳大利亞和亞洲，韓國顯然在亞洲。但日本和中國沒有。

But what I will tell you is that our cargo strength in that direction is incredibly strong. So from a TRASM point of view, relative to 2019, compared to other regions of the world, it is behind the other regions of the world but maybe less than you would otherwise think.

但我要告訴你的是，我們在那個方向的貨運實力非常強大。因此，從 TRASM 的角度來看，相對於 2019 年，與世界其他地區相比，它落後於世界其他地區，但可能比你想像的要少。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, Scott, I got to admit you piqued my interest when you made a quick reference to the Continental renaissance. I personally remember that, both as a junior analyst, the Continental passenger and, even for a period of time, a Continental employee.

好的。這很有幫助。然後，斯科特，我不得不承認，當你快速提到大陸復興時，你激起了我的興趣。我個人記得，無論是作為一名初級分析師，還是作為大陸航空公司的乘客，甚至在一段時間內，作為一名大陸航空公司的員工。

So it definitely struck a chord with me. Not sure if Gerry would want to weigh in as well, given he was there at the time that you referenced. But can you expand on that bit of history and why it's even relevant for UAL and your shareholders right now?

所以它肯定引起了我的共鳴。不確定 Gerry 是否也想參與進來，因為他在你提到的時間在那裡。但是您能否詳細介紹一下這段歷史，以及為什麼它現在與 UAL 和您的股東相關？

Yes. And then I'm going to tell a funny story to embarrass both Gerry and Andrew at the end of it. But what happened, look, Delta deserves credit, they did the same thing 15 years ago, 10 or 15 years ago, is they built brands around customers choosing them.

是的。然後我要講一個有趣的故事，最後讓 Gerry 和 Andrew 都尷尬。但是發生了什麼事，看，達美值得讚揚，他們在 15 年前、10 或 15 年前做了同樣的事情，就是圍繞選擇它們的客戶建立品牌。

They changed how people felt. They changed how the employees felt. They changed how the customers felt and people -- customers started to choose to fly those [airplanes]. So they proved that air travel does not have to be a commodity. And everyone says it but very few people do it. And I think those are two examples that were done.

他們改變了人們的感受。他們改變了員工的感受。他們改變了客戶的感受和人——客戶開始選擇駕駛那些[飛機]。所以他們證明了航空旅行不一定是一種商品。每個人都這麼說，但很少有人這樣做。我認為這是兩個已經完成的例子。

I think we've been doing it during the pandemic, and we've got a lot to prove. Acknowledged. We've got a long way to go. We're not there. But we've told you the NPS numbers. Like I have anecdotes galore from customers, from people on Capitol Hill, from other CEOs and other industries about how different it feels to flying United.

我認為我們在大流行期間一直在這樣做，我們有很多東西要證明。承認。我們還有很長的路要走。我們不在那裡。但是我們已經告訴了你 NPS 數字。就像我從客戶、國會山的人們、其他 CEO 和其他行業那裡聽到的關於乘坐聯合航空的感覺有多麼不同的軼事一樣。

Our people are proud of what we've done. They're proud of what we stand for. They're proud of, Gerry mentioned, sustainability for Ezra. They're proud of that. They're proud of the work we're doing for diversity in the Aviate Academy. They just -- they feel like we're leading again.

我們的人民為我們所做的一切感到自豪。他們為我們所代表的感到自豪。格里提到，他們為 Ezra 的可持續性感到自豪。他們為此感到自豪。他們為我們為 Aviate Academy 的多樣性所做的工作感到自豪。他們只是——他們覺得我們再次領先。

And that flows through to an energy of taking care of customers and focusing on customers alike. Look, you go on an airplane and ask employees, ask pilots ask flight attendants, ask (inaudible) how they feel about the airline. Don't tell them why. You're going to get a different answer at United as you're going to get at bunch of airlines.

這流向了照顧客戶和關注客戶的能量。看，你上飛機問員工，問飛行員問空乘人員，問（聽不清）他們對航空公司的感覺。不要告訴他們為什麼。你會在美聯航得到不同的答案，就像你會在很多航空公司得到的一樣。

And that's what happened at those other 2 airlines. That's the key to -- we're a people business, and that's the key to greatness, is to actually have a brand that customers believe. We've always had the best hubs at United Airlines, and that's been a frustrating thing for employees, for investors. Like you look at the hubs at United, we never realized our potential. Realizing our potential, it was about one fix in the gauge, which also fixes the product, but also building a brand for United Airlines. And that's what we're doing now. And you can already see it. I mean the fact that probably we'll be #1 this quarter, again, that will be 8 [of] 9 quarters.

這就是其他兩家航空公司發生的事情。這是關鍵——我們是一家以人為本的企業，也是偉大的關鍵，是真正擁有一個客戶相信的品牌。我們一直在聯合航空公司擁有最好的樞紐，這對員工和投資者來說都是一件令人沮喪的事情。就像你看看曼聯的樞紐一樣，我們從未意識到我們的潛力。意識到我們的潛力，它是關於儀表中的一個修復，它也修復了產品，但也為聯合航空公司建立了一個品牌。這就是我們現在正在做的事情。你已經可以看到它了。我的意思是，我們可能會在本季度再次成為第一，這將是 9 個季度中的 8 個。

Despite the fact that all of the last 9 quarters, I'm including the second quarter, we have still the biggest headwinds. Business travel is not as recovered as domestic leisure and international travel. We still have the biggest headwind and yet we're #1. Like just wait until those two things are back.

儘管過去 9 個季度（包括第二季度），我們仍然面臨最大的阻力。商務旅行不像國內休閒和國際旅行那樣復甦。我們仍然面臨最大的逆風，但我們是第一名。就像只是等到這兩件事回來。

And the embarrassing story, I'll say, I said this on one of our calls, 1 of our 18 calls and Gerry, like disappeared from the screen, and you got to back (inaudible). He comes back and he has a T-shirt from the days of Continental that -- I don't remember what it said on the front. On the back, it had the stock price compared to the S&P 500.

尷尬的故事，我會說，我在我們的一個電話中說了這個，我們 18 個電話中的 1 個和 Gerry，就像從屏幕上消失了一樣，你必須回來（聽不清）。他回來了，他有一件大陸航空時代的 T 卹——我不記得上面寫了什麼。在背面，它的股價與標準普爾 500 指數相比。

And Andrew is like, "Oh, I've got that T-shirt somewhere too, but I can't find it." Anyway, that's what is happening at United. Gerry, do you want to add anything?

安德魯就像，“哦，我在某個地方也有那件 T 卹，但我找不到。”無論如何，這就是曼聯正在發生的事情。格里，你想補充什麼嗎？

Jamie, two things. One, this will be a great conversation for you and I to continue next week at the ] lunch. So I invite people to attend that. The other thing is, look, I was there, then you're right, and I saw what was happening. And this isn't -- just say, this has been going on now for several years here. The same exact kind of focus everywhere in the business. .

傑米，兩件事。一，這將是你和我在下週午餐時繼續進行的一次很棒的對話。所以我邀請人們參加。另一件事是，看，我在那裡，那麼你是對的，我看到了正在發生的事情。這不是 - 只是說，這已經持續了好幾年了。業務中無處不在的關注點完全相同。 .

One example are the aircraft, not just the incredible new MAXs. We're taking with the most customer-pleasing interiors in the industry. But the fact that we're retrofitting all of the older aircraft, it's for our customers, but it's also for our crews. It's a place they're proud to work.

一個例子是飛機，而不僅僅是令人難以置信的新 MAX。我們採用業內最令客戶滿意的內飾。但事實上，我們正在改裝所有舊飛機，這是為了我們的客戶，也為了我們的機組人員。這是他們為工作而自豪的地方。

And it shows, so just a lot of similarities. I'm sure the same thing happened with Delta 15 years ago. I wasn't there then from the outside, but yes, it's just very, very similar.

它表明，所以只有很多相似之處。我敢肯定 15 年前的 Delta 也發生過同樣的事情。那時我從外面不在那裡，但是是的，它非常非常相似。

I'll add another point, which is, this is going to be a record quarter for United. What we didn't talk about was Q2 of '19 was a record quarter for United. And I think that's really relevant. The momentum is incredible, and it's incredible off of an unbelievably great quarter in our history and one of the best ones ever. So...

我還要補充一點，那就是，這將是曼聯創紀錄的一個季度。我們沒有談論的是 19 年第二季度是曼聯創紀錄的季度。我認為這真的很重要。勢頭令人難以置信，這是我們歷史上一個令人難以置信的偉大季度，也是有史以來最好的季度之一。所以...

Well, listen, I appreciate you bringing the topic up. It's, quite honestly, something that I hadn't really thought of yet. So it definitely gives me something to ponder.

好吧，聽著，我很感謝你提出這個話題。老實說，這是我還沒有真正想到的事情。所以它肯定給了我一些思考的東西。

You should all fly United experience, shareholders and (inaudible).

你們都應該飛美聯航的經驗、股東和（聽不清）。

I leave the [Wings Club] and I pack my bag. I'm leaving the next day. So I'll give you a report.

我離開[Wings Club]，收拾行囊。我第二天就要走了。所以我會給你一個報告。

We have Michael Linenberg.

我們有邁克爾·林伯格。

Yes. Good results, good outlook. Gerry. Congratulations. So you get my single question here, and it has to just do with jet fuel prices in the New York market. I'm curious. I mean, I realize that the Colonial pipeline, I think, I guess, it terminates about a mile south of Newark, but we've heard that the flows have been light lately.

是的。成績好，前景好。格里。恭喜。所以你在這裡得到我的一個問題，它與紐約市場的航空燃料價格有關。我很好奇。我的意思是，我意識到殖民管道，我想，我猜，它終止於紐瓦克以南約一英里，但我們聽說最近流量很輕。

How are you addressing that the fuel issue in the New York market? And maybe you are getting fuel again from the Colonial or maybe you're tankering in. What are you doing to address it? And maybe give us a sense like what percent of your (inaudible) today maybe is New York harbor?

您如何解決紐約市場的燃料問題？也許你又從殖民地獲得燃料，或者你正在加油。你正在做什麼來解決這個問題？也許給我們一個感覺，比如你今天（聽不清）的百分之幾可能是紐約港？

Sure, Mike. First, let me point out that the dislocation in that market has moderated. It's different in crack spread 2 weeks ago, was measured in dollars. Now, it can be measured in cents at least. It is still elevated as you compare New York to Gulf Coast, let's say. .

當然，邁克。首先，讓我指出，該市場的錯位有所緩和。與兩週前的裂紋差價不同，以美元衡量。現在，它至少可以用美分來衡量。比方說，當您將紐約與墨西哥灣沿岸進行比較時，它仍然處於較高水平。 .

And so we -- yes, we do have a number of options. One is the pipeline, we also can resort, as needed, to tankering. And so we're comfortable with our exposure. And with the problem sort of going away, that is helpful. .

所以我們——是的，我們確實有很多選擇。一是管道，我們也可以根據需要使用油輪。所以我們對我們的曝光感到滿意。隨著問題的消失，這很有幫助。 .

Great. And then just a quick one here. Just Andrew, when we look at cargo revenue, over $600 million, I mean, it's been fantastic, the run over the past couple of years.

偉大的。然後這裡只是一個快速的。只是安德魯，當我們查看貨運收入時，超過 6 億美元，我的意思是，過去幾年的運行非常棒。

But presumably, that's not just the growth rate not being sustainable but maybe the absolute level because I do believe you were still flying some airplanes cargo only.

但據推測，這不僅是增長率不可持續，而且可能是絕對水平，因為我確實相信你仍然只運送一些飛機貨物。

Does that level off? Do we see that, sort of, max out at some level as you move airplanes back into passenger service? Just your thoughts on that.

這會平嗎？當您將飛機重新投入客運服務時，我們是否看到某種程度的最大化？只是你對此的想法。

Yes. I think there's a little bit less room in the bellies when there's a lot of luggage on board. So there is an offset. And some of the airplanes go to places that don't have strong cargo demand but have strong passenger demand.

是的。我認為當船上有很多行李時，腹部的空間會小一些。所以有一個偏移量。還有一些飛機飛往貨運需求不旺但客運需求旺盛的地方。

However, that's offset by the fact that there's 52 777s, which are gigantic cargo machines, that are not flying. So those 52 aircraft are going to add, as Scott said, over the next 9 months, reenter service, providing a lot more overall belly capacity. So that's my view on that.

然而，這被 52 777 的事實所抵消，它們是巨大的貨運機器，沒有飛行。因此，正如斯科特所說，這 52 架飛機將在接下來的 9 個月內重新投入使用，從而提供更多的整體機腹容量。這就是我對此的看法。

Should we expect yields, which are at record highs, for cargo to start to moderate a bit? Absolutely. And we have that in our outlook and still feel really good about where we're going because of the belly capacity of the 777 coming back online from a total revenue perspective.

我們是否應該期望處於創紀錄高位的貨運收益率開始有所放緩？絕對地。從總收入的角度來看，由於 777 的腹部容量重新上線，我們在我們的展望中仍然感到非常好。

From Morgan Stanley, we have Ravi Shanker.

我們有來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Scott, you said in your prepared remarks, also in the media yesterday, there is an unprecedented revenue environment in your [carrier]. With your commentary on the pilot shortage, it seems like a pretty unprecedented capacity constraint as well. So that puts the industry in a pretty sweet spot.

斯科特，你在準備好的講話中說，昨天也在媒體上說，你的[運營商]有一個前所未有的收入環境。根據您對飛行員短缺的評論，這似乎也是一個前所未有的容量限制。因此，這使該行業處於一個相當不錯的位置。

Usually, when demand outstrips supply, that results in a pretty strong pricing environment that you're seeing right now. But do you think the industry is also at the cusp of a multi-quarter, long-term RASM or TRASM upside dynamic?

通常，當需求超過供應時，這會導致您現在看到的非常強勁的定價環境。但您認為該行業是否也處於多季度、長期 RASM 或 TRASM 上行動態的風口浪尖？

A, kind of, how long do you think that lasts? And B, do you think there is a point of demand disruption here, where consumers at some point may not be able to take it?

A，有點，你認為這會持續多久？ B，您是否認為這裡存在需求中斷點，消費者在某些時候可能無法接受？

Well, I'll start with demand destruction. I don't think we're anywhere close to that, and I'll first give you a micro view, then a macro view. We're just getting back, on real dollar basis, to where we were before the pandemic. Air travel remains a great value, a great bargain.

好吧，我將從需求破壞開始。我不認為我們離那個很近，我先給你一個微觀的視圖，然後是一個宏觀的視圖。以實際美元計算，我們剛剛回到大流行之前的水平。航空旅行仍然物超所值，物超所值。

I bet, many of you when you go on vacations, pay more for one night at your hotel or pay more for your rental car or, in some cases, pay more for your Uber or taxi to get to the airport than you do for your airfare. Air travel remains a great bargain. I don't think we're anywhere close to the demand destruction point of the curve.

我敢打賭，你們中的許多人在度假時，在酒店住一晚或為租車支付更多費用，或者在某些情況下，為前往機場的優步或出租車支付的費用比為您的機票。航空旅行仍然很划算。我認為我們離曲線的需求破壞點還很遠。

Another macro way to think about this is, we're just now getting back to 2019 levels of revenue. But nominal GDP has grown by 16% since 2019. And normally, we track nominal GDP. And so from a macro level, I kind of look at it and think, there's another 16 -- arguably, there's another 16% to go. And we got results that are strong as they are today. We got that. If you look at a micro level, business demand, not back yet, international coming back. Like all that makes sense that, I don't know if it's exactly 16%, but you would think that there is a pretty good way to go on the revenue recovery yet.

另一種宏觀思考方式是，我們剛剛回到 2019 年的收入水平。但自 2019 年以來，名義 GDP 增長了 16%。通常，我們跟踪名義 GDP。所以從宏觀層面上看，我會想，還有 16 個——可以說，還有 16% 的空間。我們得到了與今天一樣強大的結果。我們明白了。如果你從微觀層面看，商業需求，還沒有回來，國際回來了。就像所有這些都是有道理的，我不知道它是否正好是 16%，但你會認為還有一個很好的方法來恢復收入。

So yes, I think travel is -- I think this is the first inning of the revenue, first real inning of the revenue in TRASM turnaround.

所以是的，我認為旅行是 - 我認為這是收入的第一局，是 TRASM 周轉收入的第一局。

Got it. And as a follow-up, I know it's only been a few days, but have you seen any pickup in domestic travel interest post the dropping of the mask mandates?

知道了。作為後續行動，我知道這才幾天，但你有沒有看到在取消口罩規定後國內旅行興趣有所回升？

I don't think we -- no, in a short answer. It's certainly not something we would be able to discern in data.

我不認為我們——不，簡而言之。這當然不是我們能夠從數據中辨別出來的東西。

From Cowen and Company, we have Helane Becker. .

來自 Cowen and Company，我們有 Helane Becker。 .

So Scott, as you think about the improvement in traffic that you're seeing, are you also seeing an increase, or maybe Andrew, in loyalty sign-ups in credit card acquisition?

所以斯科特，當你想到你所看到的流量的改善時，你是否也看到了信用卡購買忠誠度註冊的增加，或者可能是安德魯？

Helane, we're seeing an increase in everything. So in the MileagePlus front, we're doing record card acquisitions, record card spend. And our retention rate for the card is better than it's ever been. So it's just -- we're firing on all cylinders at this point, and MileagePlus is doing a great job of contributing to these results.

Helane，我們看到一切都在增加。因此，在前程萬里 (MileagePlus) 方面，我們正在記錄卡的獲取，記錄卡的消費。我們的卡保留率比以往任何時候都好。所以這只是 - 我們此時正在全力以赴，而前程萬里 (MileagePlus) 在為這些結果做出貢獻方面做得很好。

That's very helpful. And then for Gerry, on -- the percentage of floating rate debt seems, I don't know, relatively high. So are you concerned about higher interest rates causing an increase in interest expense from that? Or is that the first step that you're thinking about paying [debt]?

這很有幫助。然後對於格里來說，浮動利率債務的百分比似乎，我不知道，相對較高。那麼，您是否擔心更高的利率會導致利息支出增加？或者這是你考慮支付[債務]的第一步？

Well, first, I don't view actually our floating rate exposure as all that high, relatively speaking. The vast majority of our debt is fixed-rate aircraft-related debt. So that's really not something we're particularly concerned about. And floating rate, the LIBOR is still at a relatively low level. So the floating rate, that's still perfectly attractive.

嗯，首先，相對而言，我並不認為我們的浮動利率風險敞口有那麼高。我們的絕大部分債務是與飛機相關的固定利率債務。所以這真的不是我們特別關心的事情。而浮動利率，LIBOR仍處於較低水平。所以浮動利率仍然非常有吸引力。

Of course, the good part of floating rate debt is, it's generally prepayable without premium. So it is there to prepay, generally, not all of it right now, but a lot of it is. So that's not -- the current debt is not a concern.

當然，浮動利率債務的好處是，它通常無需溢價即可預付。所以它是用來預付的，一般來說，現在不是全部，但很多都是。所以那不是 - 當前的債務不是問題。

Obviously, as we move ahead into a higher interest rate environment, that may -- that will be factored in as to kind of how we manage the balance sheet.

顯然，隨著我們進入更高的利率環境，這可能會被考慮到我們如何管理資產負債表。

From Goldman Sachs, we have Catherine O'Brien.

來自高盛，我們有凱瑟琳奧布萊恩。

So this kind of touches on what you were answering to Ravi's question, Scott, but a conversation I was having a lot last year is when do we lap pent-up travel. It sounds like in your comments that both domestic and some international markets in trans-Atlantic and LatAm are running well ahead of 2019 at the same time for the summer.

所以這涉及到你對拉維的問題的回答，斯科特，但我去年經常進行的一次對話是我們什麼時候結束被壓抑的旅行。在你的評論中，跨大西洋和拉美的國內和一些國際市場在夏季同時在 2019 年之前運行得很好。

I guess, do you see that slowing at any point? And I guess, if you do, like how should we think about long-haul international and corporate pent-up travel perhaps backfilling that? Or is this just like the wrong conversation to be having and we should be talking about something structural has happened to where we think demand for air travel is? Would love your thoughts.

我想，你有沒有看到任何時候放緩？我想，如果你這樣做，我們應該如何考慮長途國際和企業被壓抑的旅行可能會回填呢？或者這是否就像正在進行的錯誤對話一樣，我們應該談論我們認為航空旅行需求所在的結構性發生的事情？會喜歡你的想法。

Well, I'll give you my opinion, just opinion, and others can have different opinions. But I think you've almost answered the question. The answer to the question is, I think there has been a structural change. And I'll go back one step. Like no one knows for sure. No one has gotten the pandemic more right than United Airlines from the very beginning.

好吧，我給你我的意見，只是意見，其他人可以有不同的意見。但我想你幾乎已經回答了這個問題。問題的答案是，我認為發生了結構性變化。我會後退一步。就像沒有人確切知道一樣。從一開始，沒有人比聯合航空公司更能正確應對這一流行病。

I mean, 2 years ago at this time, we weren't just a minority when we said business travel would come back in its entirety. We were a minority of one. Nobody thought that. And now we're going to do it this quarter.

我的意思是，2 年前的這個時候，當我們說商務旅行將全面回歸時，我們不僅僅是少數人。我們是其中的少數。沒有人這麼想。現在我們將在本季度這樣做。

And what I think is true, I've certainly personally experienced, talked to enough people, is that once people get back traveling, you realize how much you've missed it and took it for granted before. It's not pent-up demand. It's a new, higher level of travel.

我認為是真實的，我親身經歷過，與足夠多的人交談過，一旦人們回來旅行，你就會意識到你有多麼想念它，以前認為它是理所當然的。這不是被壓抑的需求。這是一種新的、更高層次的旅行。

I am going to -- I'm certain, confidently for the rest of my life, travel more, both on personal or family and vacations and things and on business. And I think there are a lot of people like that.

我將——我確信，在我的餘生中，我會更多地旅行，無論是個人或家庭、假期、事情和商務。而且我認為有很多這樣的人。

Losing it for 2 years or for a year or however long people lost it, we are social creatures. We need to be with each other. We are more productive when we're together at a conference or when we're at dinner with a customer or a client than when we're doing a simple transaction on Zoom and the kids are talking in the background and you're reading your iPhone. It's just not the same.

失去它 2 年或一年，或者無論人們失去它多長時間，我們都是社會動物。我們需要彼此相處。當我們一起參加會議或與客戶共進晚餐時，我們比在 Zoom 上進行簡單交易並且孩子們在後台交談而您正在閱讀您的蘋果手機。只是不一樣。

And once you get back traveling, people realize it's even more important. And we got a lot of -- we see it in our corporate accounts. They're kind of flatlined doing nothing, then they start traveling and they zoom past where they were. I think that's what's going to happen.

一旦你回來旅行，人們就會意識到它更加重要。我們得到了很多 - 我們在我們的公司賬戶中看到了它。他們有點扁平化無所事事，然後他們開始旅行，然後他們放大了他們所在的地方。我認為這就是將要發生的事情。

You don't have to believe that to buy United Airlines stock or airline stocks because we're still 16% behind the trend line of where we were on GDP. I happen to believe that we are going to surpass, on a permanent sustainable basis, where we were before. But that's just one guy's opinion.

你不必相信購買聯合航空公司股票或航空公司股票，因為我們仍然落後於 GDP 趨勢線 16%。我碰巧相信我們將在永久可持續的基礎上超越我們以前的水平。但這只是一個人的看法。

Okay. Great. Maybe one for Gerry. I realize how difficult it is to time the decisions of the FAA on the 777 and the [78s]. I guess, just based on your latest conversations, do you have any broad stroke, kind of, upper and lower limits of where we should be thinking about capacity for this year? And then maybe, what that means for unit cost?

好的。偉大的。也許是給格里的。我意識到在 777 和 [78s] 上確定 FAA 的決定是多麼困難。我想，根據你最近的談話，你對今年我們應該考慮的產能有什麼大致的看法、種類、上限和下限嗎？然後也許，這對單位成本意味著什麼？

Yes. As we said, the capacity for this year is going to be driven largely by the timing of 777. So it will obviously improve over the course of the year. It's tough to put a precise number to it, as I said.

是的。正如我們所說，今年的運力將主要由 777 的時機驅動。因此，今年的運力顯然會有所改善。正如我所說，很難給它加上一個精確的數字。

What we do know, though, is that the 777s in particular, as well as the large narrow-bodies are all going to greatly benefit CASM, which is why we're comfortable that we will get to where we want to be, by the end of the year, on CASM.

不過，我們所知道的是，特別是 777 以及大型窄體飛機都將極大地受益於 CASM，這就是為什麼我們很高興我們將到達我們想到達的地方，通過今年年底，在 CASM 上。

From Barclays, we have Brandon Oglenski.

在巴克萊，我們有 Brandon Oglenski。

Congrats on the strong outlook here, being that's normal. Andrew, I just wanted to follow up. I think you guys explained it but 100% RASM on business travel. So that just means, adjusted for your capacity relative to where you were. Is that correct?

恭喜這裡的強勁前景，這是正常的。安德魯，我只是想跟進。我想你們已經解釋過了，但商務旅行是 100% RASM。所以這只是意味著，根據你所在位置的容量進行調整。那是對的嗎？

That's correct because capacity is down a little bit. Yields are up for that component of traffic 10%, and volume is down about 20% right now. So it's all mathematically getting as close to 100.

這是正確的，因為容量下降了一點。這部分流量的收益增加了 10%，而現在流量下降了約 20%。所以它在數學上都接近 100。

And I guess, what is the outlook on recovery on international business travel demand? Is that ramping up this summer as well? Or do you really need to see the testing requirement removed?

我想，國際商務旅行需求的複蘇前景如何？今年夏天也漲價了嗎？或者你真的需要看到測試要求被刪除嗎？

Well, it is ramping up. So what I would tell you is, in the current quarter, the business cabins are filled more with premium leisure business than traditional corporate business. The corporate business bookings across the Atlantic have largely returned to normal.

嗯，它正在加速。所以我要告訴你的是，在本季度，公務艙的高端休閒業務比傳統的公務業務更多。大西洋彼岸的企業業務預訂已基本恢復正常。

So as we get into the summer, we do expect, particularly going across the Atlantic, really decent business traffic relative to 2019, with revenue again at 100% or greater.

因此，當我們進入夏季時，我們確實預計，尤其是跨越大西洋，相對於 2019 年的業務流量非常可觀，收入再次達到 100% 或更高。

The same is true in Latin America. It is a smaller business component than Europe. The same is not true for Asia, where we really haven't seen a meaningful recovery in business traffic, at this point, to the bulk of our Asian network.

在拉丁美洲也是如此。它是一個比歐洲更小的業務組成部分。亞洲的情況並非如此，在這一點上，我們亞洲網絡的大部分業務流量確實沒有明顯恢復。

We have Chris Stathoulopoulos.

我們有克里斯 Stathoulopoulos。

So Scott, I couldn't agree with you more on the why I need for travel. On the look forward for business, how much of that is small to midsize versus corporates?

所以斯科特，關於我為什麼需要旅行，我完全同意你的看法。在對業務的展望方面，與企業相比，其中有多少是中小型企業？

And then, what are you seeing on your survey work or other data that you look at, with respect to the mix of large corporate buyers from healthcare, finance, tech, consulting and the like? Any changes in the mix, frequency and/or seasonality there?

然後，關於來自醫療保健、金融、科技、諮詢等領域的大型企業買家的組合，您在調查工作或您查看的其他數據中看到了什麼？那裡的組合、頻率和/或季節性有什麼變化嗎？

I'll start. The booking curve has changed. It's looking closer in than it did in 2019, is the first part. All the sectors are returning, some faster than others. Media, transportation, industrial seem to be moving quicker than technology.

我會開始的。預訂曲線發生了變化。這是第一部分，它看起來比 2019 年更接近。所有部門都在恢復，有些部門比其他部門更快。媒體、交通、工業似乎比技術發展得更快。

All that being said, I just want to point out San Francisco, which is a really important market to us. San Francisco is the top-16 metros in the United States with a lag. And it was the #16, in terms of recovery, a month ago. It's now #8. And so there's been a rapid bounce-back in San Francisco. And so I think when we get the updated data, I think we're going to see technology is back to line. It's the only way I can explain what I've seen in the macro numbers for that. So I think we're really kind of bullish on that, and the numbers are supported in that case. Does that answer the question? Or do you have a follow-up?

說了這麼多，我只想指出舊金山，這對我們來說是一個非常重要的市場。舊金山是美國排名前 16 的大都市，但有滯後性。就恢復而言，這是一個月前的第 16 位。現在是#8。因此，舊金山迅速反彈。所以我認為當我們獲得更新的數據時，我認為我們將看到技術恢復正常。這是我可以解釋我在宏數字中看到的唯一方法。所以我認為我們真的有點看好這一點，並且在這種情況下，這些數字得到了支持。這能回答問題嗎？或者你有後續嗎？

Yes. A follow-up is separate. So the comments about industry capacity estimates out there being wildly off and what feels like a renaissance, if you will, for unit revenues.

是的。後續行動是分開的。因此，關於行業產能估計的評論非常不靠譜，如果你願意的話，對於單位收入來說，這感覺像是一場復興。

Assuming we can get oil and hold it below $100 and your deliveries take place as expected and we moved deeper into this new stage of the recovery, is there an opportunity [while] what's holding you back from getting to those margin targets faster?

假設我們可以得到石油並將其保持在 100 美元以下，並且您的交付按預期進行，並且我們更深入地進入了這個複甦的新階段，那麼是否有機會 [同時] 是什麼阻礙了您更快地達到這些利潤目標？

I think we will get there faster.

我想我們會更快到達那裡。

For 2023.

2023 年。

And we will now take questions from the media. (Operator Instructions) And from Wall Street Journal, we have Alison Sider.

我們現在將接受媒體的提問。 （操作員說明）來自《華爾街日報》的艾莉森·賽德（Alison Sider）。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about some of the smaller communities where your regional services had to pull back. Now, what do you think the future is for some of those markets?

我想知道您是否可以談談您的區域服務不得不撤出的一些較小的社區。現在，您認為其中一些市場的未來是什麼？

Like, do you think they'll ever have air service by network carrier again? Or are they just going to have to figure something out? How do you see that developing?

比如，你認為他們會再次通過網絡運營商提供航空服務嗎？或者他們只是需要弄清楚一些事情嗎？您如何看待這種發展？

We spent a lot of time talking to the small communities, and it's been really frustrating that many of these communities have left the United network. That doesn't mean they've lost all of their service, in particular, so that's important to note. But I do think it's going to be a number of years before this can possibly change.

我們花了很多時間與小社區交談，這些社區中的許多人已經離開了美聯航網絡，這真的很令人沮喪。這並不意味著他們已經失去了所有的服務，特別是，所以這一點很重要。但我確實認為這可能需要幾年的時間才能改變。

And in the meantime, the smaller communities can expect a different level of service on much smaller aircraft is my expectation, based on what I've been seeing in the industry to date. Even that's going to take time to spool up.

與此同時，根據我迄今為止在行業中看到的情況，我的期望是，較小的社區可以期待在更小的飛機上提供不同水平的服務。即使這樣也需要時間來處理。

So this is -- it's as frustrating for United as it is for those small communities, but this is where we are, and we're doing our best to maintain service to as many of them as we possibly can.

所以這對美聯航來說和對那些小社區一樣令人沮喪，但這就是我們所處的位置，我們正在盡最大努力為盡可能多的社區提供服務。

But it's just -- we really are stretched. We're flying dramatically fewer regional jets today than we were in 2019. And we don't expect that to improve at all in the next few years.

但這只是——我們真的很緊張。與 2019 年相比，我們今天飛行的支線飛機數量大大減少。我們預計未來幾年這一情況不會有所改善。

And just a separate question, are you seeing any signs of increased COVID-related absences among your employees? And is that something you're sort of doing any contingency planning for as the case numbers start to rise in parts of the country?

只是一個單獨的問題，您是否看到員工中有任何與 COVID 相關的缺勤增加的跡象？隨著該國部分地區的病例數開始上升，您是否正在為此做任何應急計劃？

We are not seeing that. And in fact, was -- got really good news yesterday. For the first time in a long time, we have zero employees hospitalized for any complications from COVID, which is great, something we track closely what's happening and zero. So quite the opposite of what we're seeing.

我們沒有看到這一點。事實上，昨天得到了非常好的消息。很長一段時間以來，我們第一次有零員工因 COVID 並發症住院，這很好，我們密切跟踪正在發生的事情，而且為零。所以與我們所看到的完全相反。

And from Bloomberg, we have Justin Bachman.

在彭博社，我們有賈斯汀·巴赫曼。

I wanted to ask about some of the mechanics around your 777 return, what kind of work is still remaining to be done, what you're waiting on the FAA; and then what you're hearing from Boeing as far as the MAX certification, the MAX 10 certification and where that goes, that gives you confidence that those will start up in 2023?

我想問一下你們 777 返航的一些機制，還有哪些工作要做，你們在 FAA 等什麼；然後你從波音公司那裡聽到的 MAX 認證、MAX 10 認證以及這些認證的進展情況，這讓你有信心這些將在 2023 年啟動？

Thanks for the question. This is Greg Hart. There's really two bodies of work underway on the 777. The first is, we worked with Boeing and the FAA to be able to start the modification work on those aircraft. We've got a number of aircraft complete, and that work continues.

謝謝你的問題。這是格雷格哈特。 777 實際上有兩個工作正在進行。首先是，我們與波音和美國聯邦航空局合作，以便能夠開始對這些飛機進行改裝工作。我們已經完成了一些飛機，並且這項工作仍在繼續。

Also, there's the regulatory process that Boeing is working and Pratt & Whitney are working through with the FAA. We are in the final legs of that, and we appreciate Boeing's perhaps, and the FAA is focused on the issue and, obviously, expect the FAA at some point in the not-too-distant future to allow those aircraft to return safely to the air.

此外，還有波音公司和普惠公司正在與美國聯邦航空局合作的監管程序。我們正處於最後階段，我們可能很欣賞波音公司，美國聯邦航空局正在關注這個問題，顯然，希望美國聯邦航空局在不遠的將來的某個時候讓這些飛機安全返回空氣。

Gerry, do you want to take the next-gen certification?

格里，你想參加次世代認證嗎？

Sure. Yes. As you can expect, we are in regular communication with Boeing. They've been very good about keeping us informed on the timeline for the certification for the MAX 10, which is why I said earlier, I am confident that the MAX 10 will get certified and we'll fly it next year.

當然。是的。如您所料，我們與波音公司保持定期溝通。他們一直很好地讓我們了解 MAX 10 認證的時間表，這就是我之前說的原因，我相信 MAX 10 將獲得認證，我們將在明年試飛。

Great. On another topic, on the masks and the change in that policy this week, what are -- you've talked about passengers being able to return, who are on a list for not complying with your policy.

偉大的。在另一個話題上，關於口罩和本週該政策的變化，您談到了能夠返回的乘客，他們因不遵守您的政策而被列入名單。

What are some of the issues that you're sorting through on who can return to United flights and who will not be allowed in the future, related to that issue?

關於誰可以返回美聯航航班以及將來不允許誰返回與該問題相關的問題，您正在整理哪些問題？

Yes. This is Brett Hart. As you can imagine, those who have been banned during this time period, it's for a range of behavior, and some are relatively straightforward. It's just the refusal to wear the mask. in those conversations, we were able to handle in a reasonable manner. But there are those who -- behavior, beyond just a general refusal to wear the mask.

是的。這是布雷特哈特。可想而知，在這段時間被封禁的，都是針對一系列的行為，有的比較直白。就是拒絕戴口罩。在那些談話中，我們能夠以合理的方式處理。但是有些人的行為，不僅僅是普遍拒絕戴口罩。

And so we will evaluate that behavior. And if that behavior presented a risk to our team members and to other customers, then those are individuals who -- it is less likely that we will welcome back to our airline.

所以我們將評估這種行為。如果這種行為給我們的團隊成員和其他客戶帶來了風險，那麼這些人就不太可能歡迎我們回到我們的航空公司。

But as you can imagine, we're going to take a very thoughtful approach to evaluating this, and we'll be getting in touch with individuals who have been banned as time passes.

但正如你可以想像的那樣，我們將採取一種非常周到的方法來評估這一點，隨著時間的推移，我們將與被禁止的個人取得聯繫。

From CNN, we have Chris Isidore.

我們有來自 CNN 的 Chris Isidore。

Given that the domestic yields are about where they were first quarter of 2019 and that business travel is not yet back up to normal level, do you have any sense as to how the leisure travel yields are compared to that first quarter of 2019? Are they up x percent? Can you give any guidance on that?

鑑於國內收益率與 2019 年第一季度的水平差不多，而且商務旅行尚未恢復到正常水平，您對休閒旅遊的收益率與 2019 年第一季度相比有何感覺？他們上漲了百分之幾？您能對此提供任何指導嗎？

They are definitely up. I'm sure all of our customers realize when they pass by a gas station out there that the price of fuel is dramatically higher. And therefore, our largest -- really, our second-largest cost component is dramatically higher at United.

他們肯定起來了。我敢肯定，我們所有的客戶在經過加油站時都會意識到，燃料價格要高得多。因此，我們最大的——實際上，我們第二大的成本組成部分在美聯航要高得多。

So leisure yields, along with business yields, are running ahead. Business yields, already pointed out, were 10% ahead of 2019 at this point as we look into the second quarter. And leisure yields are above that at this point as we look into the second quarter.

因此，休閒收益以及商業收益正在領先。已經指出，在我們展望第二季度時，此時企業收益率比 2019 年高出 10%。當我們展望第二季度時，休閒收益率高於這一點。

Above 10%, but you're not giving a number yet?

超過 10%，但你還沒有給出一個數字？

No.

不。

From TPG, we have David Slotnick.

我們有來自 TPG 的 David Slotnick。

I was wondering if you're doing any -- continue to be planning or have any plans in place just to deal with capacity issues at Newark this summer? I know that you've gotten, sort of, warning about problems with that again. And just given the demand outlook, I wanted to know how you're planning to cope with all that.

我想知道你是否正在做任何 - 繼續計劃或製定任何計劃來解決今年夏天紐瓦克的產能問題？我知道你已經得到了，有點，再次警告這方面的問題。鑑於需求前景，我想知道您打算如何應對所有這些問題。

Sure. I'll try to stay calm when I do this Newark answer. I mean, frankly, it's outrageous what's being allowed to happen at Newark. It is -- the airport has the theoretical capacity to fly 79 operations per hour. That's what the FAA says. That's in perfect conditions, which are rare at Newark.

當然。當我做這個紐瓦克的回答時，我會盡量保持冷靜。我的意思是，坦率地說，在紐瓦克允許發生的事情是令人髮指的。它是——機場的理論能力是每小時飛行 79 次。這就是美國聯邦航空局所說的。那是在完美的條件下，這在紐瓦克是罕見的。

It is -- it was the most delayed airport in the country in 2016, again, in 2017, again in 2018, again in 2019. And the FAA has rules that limit the airport to 79 operations per hour, and they are letting airlines violate those rules.

它是 - 它是 2016 年、2017 年、2018 年、2019 年該國延誤最多的機場。美國聯邦航空局的規定將機場限制為每小時 79 次運營，他們讓航空公司違反那些規則。

And they're just -- I don't know, it's unheard of behavior for me for the FAA to just let people break, brazenly break the rules. The two biggest offenders are Spirit Airlines and JetBlue. Spirit Airlines and JetBlue are paying the biggest price.

他們只是——我不知道，對我來說，美國聯邦航空局讓人們違反、肆無忌憚地違反規則對我來說是聞所未聞的。最大的兩個違規者是 Spirit Airlines 和 JetBlue。 Spirit Airlines 和 JetBlue 付出了最大的代價。

Their customers -- I mean, it's a disaster for their customers because they're flying more flights then the airport can handle. They've canceled over 20% of their flights, 1 in 5 flights canceled, canceled, not delayed, canceled at Newark so far this month. I mean it's awful for their employees. It's awful for their customers.

他們的客戶——我的意思是，這對他們的客戶來說是一場災難，因為他們的航班數量超出了機場的承受能力。本月到目前為止，他們已經取消了超過 20% 的航班，五分之一的航班在紐瓦克被取消、取消、沒有延誤、取消。我的意思是這對他們的員工來說很糟糕。這對他們的客戶來說太糟糕了。

Unfortunately, our employees and our customers are collateral damage to that. It is time for the FAA to enforce their own rules. It's bad for consumers. It's terrible for consumers, What is being allowed to happen at Newark, it's simply time for the FAA to enforce the rules.

不幸的是，我們的員工和我們的客戶對此造成了附帶損害。現在是美國聯邦航空局執行自己的規則的時候了。這對消費者不利。這對消費者來說是可怕的，在紐瓦克被允許發生的事情，只是美國聯邦航空局執行規則的時候了。

But I mean, aside from communicating what's going on to customers, is there any way that you can help customers mitigate this, whether it's rerouting or [redeploying] capacity or something like that?

但我的意思是，除了向客戶傳達正在發生的事情之外，還有什麼方法可以幫助客戶緩解這種情況，無論是重新路由還是 [重新部署] 容量或類似的東西？

Well, customers should book on United because our -- as bad is -- while it's tough for us, our results are a whole lot better, and our team is doing a great job of taking care of customers. If you're going to fly out of Newark, I'd certainly encourage you to book on United.

好吧，客戶應該在美聯航預訂，因為我們——雖然很糟糕——雖然這對我們來說很艱難，但我們的結果要好得多，而且我們的團隊在照顧客戶方面做得很好。如果你要飛出紐瓦克，我當然會鼓勵你在曼聯預訂。

We will now turn it back to Emily Zanetis for closing remarks.

現在，我們將把它轉回給 Emily Zanetis 的結束語。

Thanks for joining the call today. Please contact Investor and Media Relations if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

感謝您今天加入電話會議。如果您有任何其他問題，請聯繫投資者和媒體關係部，我們期待在下個季度與您交談。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝你。女士們，先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您加入，您現在可以斷開連接。