聯合航空 (UAL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to United Airlines Holdings' Earnings Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022.

早上好，歡迎來到美國聯合航空控股公司 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。

My name is Candice, and I will be your conference facilitator today.

我叫 Candice，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

This call is being recorded and is copyrighted. Please note that no portion of the call may be recorded, transcribed or rebroadcast without the company's permission. Your participation implies your consent to our recording of this call. If you do not agree with these terms, simply drop off the line.

此通話正在錄音並受版權保護。請注意，未經公司許可，不得對通話的任何部分進行錄音、轉錄或轉播。您的參與意味著您同意我們對此次通話進行錄音。如果您不同意這些條款，只需掛斷電話即可。

I will now turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Kristina Munoz, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我將把演示文稿交給今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係總監克里斯蒂娜·穆尼奧斯 (Kristina Munoz)。請繼續。

Thank you, Candice. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to United's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝你，坎迪斯。各位早上好，歡迎來到聯合航空 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。

Yesterday, we issued our earnings release, which is available on our website at ir.united.com. Information in yesterday's release and the remarks made during the conference call may contain forward-looking statements, which represent the company's current expectations or beliefs concerning future events and financial performance. All forward-looking statements are based upon information currently available to the company.

昨天，我們發布了收益報告，可在我們的網站 ir.united.com 上獲取。昨天發布的信息和電話會議中的言論可能包含前瞻性陳述，代表公司當前對未來事件和財務業績的預期或信念。所有前瞻性陳述均基於公司當前可獲得的信息。

A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release, Form 10-K and 10-Q and other reports filed with the SEC by United Airlines Holdings and United Airlines for a more thorough description of these factors.

許多因素可能導致實際結果與我們目前的預期存在重大差異。請參閱我們的收益發布、10-K 和 10-Q 表格以及聯合航空控股公司和聯合航空向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他報告，以更全面地描述這些因素。

Unless otherwise noted, we will be discussing our financial metrics on a non-GAAP basis on this call. Please refer to the related definitions and reconciliations in our press release. For a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures please refer to the tables at the end of our earnings release.

除非另有說明，否則我們將在本次電話會議上討論非 GAAP 基礎上的財務指標。請參閱我們新聞稿中的相關定義和調節。如需將這些非 GAAP 措施與最直接可比的 GAAP 措施進行核對，請參閱我們的收益發布末尾的表格。

Joining us on the call today to discuss our results and outlook are our Chief Executive Officer, Scott Kirby; Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer; Toby Enqvist; Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, Andrew Nocella; and Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Gerry Laderman. In addition, we have other members of the executive team on the line to assist with Q&A.

今天與我們一起討論我們的結果和展望的是我們的首席執行官 Scott Kirby；執行副總裁兼首席運營官；托比·恩奎斯特；執行副總裁兼首席商務官 Andrew Nocella；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Gerry Laderman。此外，我們還有其他執行團隊成員在線協助問答。

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Scott.

現在我想把電話轉給斯科特。

There was a question about whether you can hear us. Hopefully, everyone can. Well, thanks, Kristina, and good morning, everyone. Before we do our normal -- I'll walk you through a short deck that explains the intellectual rationale about what we're doing -- and where we think the industry is headed over a longer-term run. In short, we think there's ample evidence that there really have been structural changes in the airline industry that set the entire industry up for higher margins than we had pre-pandemic.

有一個關於你是否能聽到我們的問題。希望每個人都可以。好吧，謝謝，克里斯蒂娜，大家早上好。在我們開始正常工作之前——我將帶你瀏覽一個簡短的平台，解釋我們正在做的事情的理論基礎——以及我們認為該行業在長期運行中的發展方向。簡而言之，我們認為有充分的證據表明航空業確實發生了結構性變化，使整個行業的利潤率比大流行前更高。

First, while the specifics of the demand environment will be different, we expect it to return to at least 2019 level -- think it could go higher. Second, we believe cost convergence among all airlines as well as supply challenges may drive structurally higher industry margins. And finally, United has been pretty accurate about the macro outlooks, impact of COVID and what the recovery would look like going all the way back to February 29, 2020. And based on that, United really did take a different and unique approach to the recovery.

首先，雖然需求環境的具體情況會有所不同，但我們預計它至少會回到 2019 年的水平——認為它可能會更高。其次，我們認為所有航空公司之間的成本趨同以及供應挑戰可能會推動結構性更高的行業利潤率。最後，美聯航對宏觀前景、COVID 的影響以及自 2020 年 2 月 29 日以來的複蘇情況一直非常準確。基於此，美聯航確實採取了一種不同且獨特的方法來應對恢復。

At the onset of the pandemic, we acted first and we acted more aggressively than anyone else to protect our airline and the jobs of the people who work at United. At the time, in fact, some said that we were overreacting that the pandemic wouldn't be so bad. But by confronting that reality and acting quickly, our leadership team was able to be the first airline to move forward, turning crisis into opportunity and begin making plans for big investments in United's futures, while others, frankly, were still in crisis response mode.

在大流行開始時，我們率先採取行動，我們比任何人都採取了更積極的行動來保護我們的航空公司和美聯航員工的工作。事實上，當時有人說我們反應過度，認為大流行病不會那麼嚴重。但通過直面現實並迅速採取行動，我們的領導團隊能夠成為第一家向前邁進的航空公司，將危機轉化為機遇，並開始製定對美聯航未來進行大規模投資的計劃，而坦率地說，其他航空公司仍處於危機應對模式。

It clearly had a head start on planning for the recovery and you're already seeing it in both our absolute results as we've achieved our 9.1% adjusted pre-tax margin ahead of schedule and in our relative margin results compared to the rest of the industry.

它顯然在計劃復甦方面領先一步，你已經在我們的絕對結果中看到了這一點，因為我們提前實現了 9.1% 的調整後稅前利潤率，以及與其他公司相比的相對利潤率結果行業。

On this next slide, you can see what industry revenue has looked like as a percentage of GDP, overtime. A few interesting points. The industry still has about 15% domestic revenue growth left to go just to get back to 2019 levels here in 2023. Our base case, 9% and 14% margin target assume that we just get back to the 0.49% ratio. In the 1990s and 2000s, however, revenue to GDP was even higher. As you'll see in the next few slides, we think that cost convergence may drive revenues higher than 0.49% and for what it's worth, every single basis point of domestic increase translates into about 1 point of margin for United.

在下一張幻燈片上，您可以看到行業收入佔 GDP 的百分比（加班）。幾個有趣的點。該行業仍有約 15% 的國內收入增長需要在 2023 年回到 2019 年的水平。我們的基本情況，9% 和 14% 的利潤率目標假設我們剛剛回到 0.49% 的比率。然而，在 1990 年代和 2000 年代，收入佔 GDP 的比重更高。正如您將在接下來的幾張幻燈片中看到的那樣，我們認為成本趨同可能會推動收入增長超過 0.49%，並且就其價值而言，國內增長的每一個基點都會轉化為聯合航空約 1 個百分點的利潤率。

On Slide 5 and 6, I'll address what I think is the most significant structural change to happen to the industry in a long time for a host of reasons. We believe the industry capacity aspirations for 2023 and beyond are simply unachievable. That's just like 2022, when the industry capacity was 7 points lower than initial guidance, and we believe the same thing will happen this year for the same reasons.

在幻燈片 5 和 6 中，我將闡述我認為長期以來該行業發生的最重大的結構性變化，原因有很多。我們認為，2023 年及以後的行業產能願景根本無法實現。這就像 2022 年，當時行業產能比最初的指導低 7 個百分點，我們相信今年會出於同樣的原因發生同樣的事情。

We've talked a lot about the pilot shortage, which is just one of multiple constraints. We, along with Delta, American and Southwest alone, are planning to hire about 8,000 pilots this year compared to historical supply in the 6,000 to 7,000 range. Pilots are and will remain a significant constraint on capacity.

我們已經談了很多關於飛行員短缺的問題，這只是多重製約因素之一。我們與達美航空、美國航空和西南航空一道，今年計劃僱用約 8,000 名飛行員，而歷史供應量為 6,000 至 7,000 人。試點現在是並將繼續是對容量的重大限制。

Post-COVID, all companies, including airlines and the FAA, need to staff at higher levels. Lower experience levels combined with sick rates that are elevated because of COVID and new state legislation that makes it a lot easier to call in sick. We believe in the airline that tries to run at the same stepping levels that it had pre-pandemic is bound to fail and likely to tip over to melt down any time there are weather or air traffic control stresses in the system. OEMs are behind on aircraft, on engines, on parts. Across the board, there are supply chain constraints that limit the ability of airlines to grow.

COVID 之後，包括航空公司和美國聯邦航空局在內的所有公司都需要配備更高級別的員工。較低的經驗水平加上由於 COVID 和新的州立法而升高的生病率，這使得打電話請病假變得容易得多。我們相信，試圖以與大流行前相同的步進水平運行的航空公司注定會失敗，並且只要係統中存在天氣或空中交通管制壓力，就可能會崩潰。原始設備製造商在飛機、發動機和零部件方面落後。總體而言，供應鏈限制限制了航空公司的發展能力。

Finally, the FAA and most airlines with the exception of the network carriers have outgrown their technology infrastructure and simply cannot operate reliably in this more challenging environment. Taking all of the above into the consideration. We think, at United, we need to carry at least 5% more pilots per block hour than pre-pandemic. And in addition to that, air traffic control challenges mean our taxi and in-route flight times are elevated and growing.

最後，美國聯邦航空局和大多數航空公司（網絡承運人除外）的技術基礎設施已經過時，無法在這個更具挑戰性的環境中可靠地運營。綜上所述綜合考慮。我們認為，在美聯航，我們需要比大流行前至少每塊小時多運送 5% 的飛行員。除此之外，空中交通管制的挑戰意味著我們的滑行和航線飛行時間增加並不斷增加。

So the same number of block hours probably produces 4% to 5% fewer ASMs. Put it together, we need 10% more pilots and 5% more aircraft to produce the same number of pre-pandemic ASMs. Like it or not, that's just the new reality and the new math for all airlines. I think, however, we may be the only airline that actually figured this out and likely the only airline that has included this in our 2023 CASM-ex guidance already. And to be clear, all of these issues also impact United.

因此，相同數量的出塊時間可能會減少 4% 到 5% 的 ASM。總而言之，我們需要增加 10% 的飛行員和 5% 的飛機才能生產出相同數量的大流行前 ASM。不管喜歡與否，這只是所有航空公司的新現實和新數學。但是，我認為，我們可能是唯一一家真正解決了這一問題的航空公司，並且可能是唯一一家已經將其納入我們的 2023 CASM-ex 指南的航空公司。需要明確的是，所有這些問題也會影響曼聯。

The reality is that the airline industry is probably the most complex operational industry with 5 bars, the highest safety and regulatory standards of any industry in the country and COVID hit our industry harder than others, all of us, airlines and the FAA lost experienced employes and most didn't invest in the future. That means the system simply can't handle the volume today, much less than anticipated growth.

現實情況是，航空業可能是運營最複雜的行業，有 5 個障礙，是該國所有行業中最高的安全和監管標準，而 COVID 對我們行業的打擊比其他行業更嚴重，我們所有人、航空公司和 FAA 都失去了經驗豐富的員工大多數人沒有投資於未來。這意味著系統根本無法處理今天的數量，遠低於預期的增長。

At United, we also missed our capacity target for 2022. We had our own challenges over a year ago during Christmas of '21, Omicron hit us all hard, but it also shown a spotlight on other strains in the system. We responded by proactively pulling down capacity. It was the only choice. You can't change the engines on an airplane when it's flying. We flew a lot less last year than we'd have liked to fly, but we did it intentionally because it gave us the breathing room to make even further investments in our technology and infrastructure and to increase our staffing levels.

在 United，我們也沒有達到 2022 年的產能目標。一年多前，在 21 年的聖誕節期間，我們遇到了自己的挑戰，Omicron 對我們所有人造成了沉重打擊，但它也讓人們注意到了系統中的其他壓力。我們通過主動降低容量來應對。這是唯一的選擇。飛機在飛行時，您無法更換發動機。去年我們的飛行次數比我們希望的要少得多，但我們是故意這樣做的，因為它給了我們喘息的空間，可以進一步投資我們的技術和基礎設施，並增加我們的人員配備水平。

And we had a huge head start compared to most airlines because we started with much better technology and infrastructure. But also importantly, we got to acceptance quickly and didn't spend much time in denial about the structural changes. We accepted that the structural changes were real and moved quickly to what to do about it. On that point, I also fully recognize that most or perhaps all of our competitors, will get on their calls next week and tell you onetime event, no big deal, no change to our capacity plans. If so, I think they're just wrong. It's intellectually hard. It takes time to get through the denial phase.

與大多數航空公司相比，我們擁有巨大的領先優勢，因為我們從更好的技術和基礎設施開始。但同樣重要的是，我們很快就接受了，並沒有花太多時間否認結構性變化。我們承認結構性變化是真實存在的，並迅速採取行動應對它。在這一點上，我也完全認識到，我們的大多數或可能是所有競爭對手都會在下週接到他們的電話，並告訴你一次事件，沒什麼大不了的，我們的產能計劃沒有變化。如果是這樣，我認為他們錯了。這在智力上很難。度過拒絕階段需要時間。

What happened over the holidays wasn't a onetime event caused by the weather, and it wasn't just at one airline. One airline got the bulk of the media coverage, but the weather was the straw that broke the camel's back for several this keeps happening over and over again. And you can see that despite good weather, ULCC still hadn't recovered even as we entered the new year. The operational difficulties are just the latest among numerous data points proving the systemic challenges that are going to limit the growth in flights.

假期裡發生的事情並不是天氣造成的一次性事件，也不僅僅是發生在一家航空公司。一家航空公司獲得了大部分媒體報導，但天氣是壓垮駱駝的最後一根稻草，這種情況一再發生。而且大家可以看到，雖然天氣很好，但進入新的一年，ULCC仍然沒有恢復。運營困難只是眾多數據點中最新的一個，這些數據證明了將限制航班增長的系統性挑戰。

As you can see on the data on Slide 6, United's hub locations mean that we pretty much always have the worst weather. In spite of this, we're able to lead the industry because we're doing a lot of things differently than we did historically. We made significant additional investments in technology and infrastructure. We're running with 5% to 10% staffing buffers. That means we need more pilots, data agents, rampers et cetera, to fly the same schedule.

正如您在幻燈片 6 上的數據中看到的那樣，聯合航空的樞紐位置意味著我們幾乎總是遇到最糟糕的天氣。儘管如此，我們仍然能夠引領行業，因為我們正在做很多與以往不同的事情。我們在技術和基礎設施方面進行了大量額外投資。我們正在運行 5% 到 10% 的人員配置緩衝區。這意味著我們需要更多的飛行員、數據代理、跳傘員等來執行相同的時間表。

We're running at about 25% more spare aircraft than we did pre-pandemic, and we're flying lower aircraft utilization. All of those obviously cost money, but it's clearly the right thing to do for our customers and the most -- among the most things we can do to win their loyalty. And it's turning out these buffers are much less expensive than the cost of avoiding the otherwise inevitable operational meltdowns. And their forward guidance, other airlines are likely to talk about returning to 2019 utilization efficiency, et cetera.

我們的備用飛機比大流行前多 25%，而且我們的飛機利用率較低。所有這些顯然都要花錢，但這顯然是為我們的客戶做的正確事情，也是我們為贏得他們的忠誠度所能做的最多的事情之一。事實證明，這些緩衝器比避免不可避免的運營崩潰的成本要便宜得多。以及他們的前瞻性指導，其他航空公司可能會談論恢復到 2019 年的利用效率等。

But we believe that just wrong. Our industry has been changed profoundly by the pandemic and you can't run your airline like it's 2019 or you will fail. But don't take my word for it, watch the data. United will always have the toughest operating environment. Any airline that's operating meaningfully worse than United is out over their skis and has simply outgrown their technology, infrastructure and resources.

但我們認為錯了。我們的行業已因大流行而發生深刻變化，您不能像 2019 年那樣經營您的航空公司，否則您將失敗。但是不要相信我的話，看數據。曼聯將永遠擁有最艱難的運營環境。任何經營狀況比美聯航差得多的航空公司都已經過時了，而且已經超出了他們的技術、基礎設施和資源的範圍。

Slide 7 transitions to the unique setup on the international front. This is one of the most stark examples of what United did differently than our competitors. Over the pandemic, we bet international would return strong, post-pandemic. And because we were the only airline around the world with that view of the recovery. We were also the only airline to make 2 important strategic decisions. We didn't retire wide-body aircraft, and we were the only airline in the world that negotiated a deal with our pilot union to keep pilots in place and in position, that allowed us to quickly bounce back. The decisions that our competitors around the globe made to retire aircraft and downgrade pilots take years to reverse. And because of that, they simply can't grow and you already see that in this summer's capacity data.

幻燈片 7 過渡到國際前沿的獨特設置。這是聯合航空與我們的競爭對手不同的最明顯例子之一。在大流行期間，我們打賭國際將在大流行後強勢回歸。而且因為我們是世界上唯一一家對複蘇持這種看法的航空公司。我們也是唯一一家做出 2 項重要戰略決策的航空公司。我們沒有讓寬體飛機退役，而且我們是世界上唯一一家與我們的飛行員工會談判達成協議以保持飛行員原位和原位的航空公司，這使我們能夠迅速反彈。我們在全球的競爭對手做出的退役飛機和降級飛行員的決定需要數年時間才能扭轉。正因為如此，它們根本無法增長，你已經在今年夏天的容量數據中看到了這一點。

On Slide 8, I've already hit on the theme, so I'll try not to belabor it here, but United had a conscious strategy to use the pandemic to invest in the future. Our large aircraft orders were just the latest example of this. New plans are big-ticket items that get lots of attention. But other investments we've made in technology, infrastructure and people haven't drawn big headlines even though they too are essential to our success. The point here is that we really were unique. It wasn't just one thing and it wasn't just aircraft. It started with the fact that we always believed in a full recovery. And as a result, we invested and invested early.

在幻燈片 8 上，我已經找到了主題，所以我盡量不在這裡贅述，但曼聯有一個有意識的策略，即利用大流行病來投資未來。我們的大型飛機訂單就是最新的例子。新計劃是引起廣泛關注的大件物品。但我們在技術、基礎設施和人員方面所做的其他投資並沒有成為頭條新聞，儘管它們對我們的成功也至關重要。這裡的重點是我們真的是獨一無二的。這不僅僅是一件事，也不僅僅是飛機。它始於我們始終相信完全康復的事實。結果，我們很早就投資了。

On Slide 9, everything about this deck hopefully gives investors some comfort on why we have confidence in our margin targets. But I think there's potential for margins to go even higher, making Slide 9, the money slide for this entire deck for me at least. You can have whatever view you want about capacity, but what really matters is cost convergence. It's already happening, and I'm pretty sure it's going to continue. I believe a world where ULCCs pay their pilots significantly less than us, yet they can still hire and retain pilots, and they can somehow operate with previous staffing utilization levels is just the [nonsense], it's not a realistic scenario.

在幻燈片 9 上，關於這個平台的一切都希望能讓投資者對我們為什麼對我們的利潤率目標充滿信心感到欣慰。但我認為利潤率可能會更高，至少對我來說，製作幻燈片 9 是整個平台的資金幻燈片。您可以對容量有任何看法，但真正重要的是成本收斂。它已經在發生，而且我很確定它會繼續下去。我相信 ULCC 支付給飛行員的工資比我們低得多，但他們仍然可以僱用和留住飛行員，並且他們可以以某種方式在以前的人員配置水平上運營的世界只是[廢話]，這不是一個現實的場景。

And with cost convergence, if I were a betting man and actually I am, I'd bet that the revenue to GDP ratio is going back to the mid-5s. We'll see, and again, we expect to hit our margin targets even at the 0.49% level. But if it is true, I believe industry margins will go even higher. That's not our official guidance to be clear, but it's certainly possible.

隨著成本的趨同，如果我是一個賭徒並且實際上我是，我敢打賭收入與 GDP 的比率將回到 5 年代中期。我們會再次看到，我們預計即使在 0.49% 的水平也能達到我們的利潤率目標。但如果這是真的，我相信行業利潤率會更高。這不是我們明確的官方指南，但肯定有可能。

And so to conclude, I think the pandemic led to a structural change in the industry. The supply-demand dynamics are different than they've ever been in my career. I realize there's a lot of investor skepticism on that, but every data point keeps demonstrating it over and over again. And because United saw this ahead of everyone else, we were able to invest and prepare to take advantage of it. To be clear, I think margins across the board are going to be higher in the airline industry. But because of the unique steps we took to prepare for exactly this kind of recovery, you're also already seeing United's relative performance is as strong, and I expect that lead to just expand. A huge thanks to the entire United team. You're really doing an amazing job, and you are making United the biggest and the best airline in the history of aviation.

因此，總而言之，我認為大流行導致了該行業的結構性變化。供需動態與我職業生涯中的任何時候都不一樣。我知道有很多投資者對此持懷疑態度，但每個數據點都在一遍又一遍地證明這一點。因為曼聯比其他人都先看到了這一點，所以我們能夠投資並準備好利用它。需要明確的是，我認為航空業的整體利潤率會更高。但由於我們採取了獨特的步驟來為這種複蘇做準備，你也已經看到曼聯的相對錶現同樣強勁，我預計領先優勢會擴大。非常感謝整個曼聯團隊。你們真的做得很棒，你們正在使聯合航空成為航空史上最大、最好的航空公司。

And with that, I'll hand it off to Toby, who'll explain some of these critical investments, why they were important to the success of our operations through the most difficult holiday operating environment in my career. Toby?

有了這個，我會把它交給托比，他會解釋其中一些關鍵投資，為什麼它們對我們在我職業生涯中最困難的假期運營環境中的運營成功至關重要。托比？

Thanks, Scott, and hello to everyone tuning in today. I first want to thank our employees for their exceptional performance over the holidays. We faced a really challenging operating environment that included some of the busiest days of the year and historical cold weather across most of our hubs and line station. While you wouldn't know it from the holiday travel headlines, United was actually the most impacted airline from a weather perspective. 36% of all our flights were exposed to severe weather between December 21 and December 26, more than any other airline in the country.

謝謝，斯科特，向今天收看的所有人問好。我首先要感謝我們的員工在假期中的出色表現。我們面臨著一個真正具有挑戰性的運營環境，其中包括一年中最繁忙的幾天以及我們大多數樞紐和車站的歷史寒冷天氣。雖然您不會從假期旅行的頭條新聞中了解到這一點，但從天氣的角度來看，聯合航空實際上是受影響最大的航空公司。在 12 月 21 日至 26 日期間，我們所有航班中有 36% 暴露在惡劣天氣下，比該國任何其他航空公司都多。

And even though our load factors was already high, we accommodated thousands of additional customers on short notice when their travel and other airlines was disrupted. Despite these headwinds over the holidays, our team connected 90% of our customers within 4 hours of their planned arrival and served more than 8 million people, 1 million more than we did last year, and our operations performed very well, especially considered these tough conditions.

儘管我們的載客率已經很高，但當他們的旅行和其他航空公司中斷時，我們在短時間內又容納了數千名額外的客戶。儘管在假期期間遇到了這些不利因素，但我們的團隊在計劃到達的 4 小時內連接了 90% 的客戶，並為超過 800 萬人提供了服務，比去年增加了 100 萬人，我們的運營表現非常好，尤其是考慮到這些困難情況。

United was among the airlines with a fewest cancellations during the holidays, and we were #1 in completion in Denver, San Francisco, Houston and Washington Dulles, and we practically eliminated all the related challenges and cancellations compared to the 2021 holiday period. So how did we do it? The answer lies in all the planning and investment we made during the depths of the pandemic. Instead of just trying to run the airline like we did in 2019, we worked over the last 3 years to prepare for a different, more complex operating environment and a sudden surge in travel demand.

美聯航是假期期間取消航班最少的航空公司之一，我們在丹佛、舊金山、休斯頓和華盛頓杜勒斯機場的完成率排名第一，與 2021 年假期相比，我們幾乎消除了所有相關的挑戰和取消。那麼我們是怎麼做到的呢？答案在於我們在大流行最嚴重時期所做的所有計劃和投資。我們並沒有像 2019 年那樣僅僅嘗試經營這家航空公司，而是在過去 3 年裡努力為不同的、更複雜的運營環境和旅行需求的突然激增做準備。

To prepare specifically for the 2022 holiday period, we purposely built some slack in the schedule and reduced how often we fly during peak times. We accelerated our hiring and added staffing buffers in key locations. We built firewalls to prevent individual weather events from spilling over into broader network. And finally, we beefed up our training in every department, including clearing out the pilot training backlog to be resource ready for the peak travel demand season.

為了專門為 2022 年的假期做準備，我們特意安排了一些時間安排，並減少了高峰時段的飛行頻率。我們加快了招聘速度，並在關鍵地點增加了人員配置緩衝。我們建立了防火牆，以防止個別天氣事件蔓延到更廣泛的網絡。最後，我們加強了每個部門的培訓，包括清理積壓的飛行員培訓，為旅遊需求旺季做好資源準備。

Again, as Scott said, our work to prepare goes back even further. Over the last 3 years, United invested in systems, training, tools and technology that would empower our employees and benefit our customers, including a modernized cruise scheduling system with 800% improvement in performance, capacity and security versus 2019, a smarter schedule and operations coordination to build reliable and operable schedules. Additional spare aircraft in our fleet, upgraded technology infrastructure supporting our network, operations, airport operations and maintenance teams.

同樣，正如 Scott 所說，我們的準備工作可以追溯到更早之前。在過去的 3 年裡，美聯航投資於系統、培訓、工具和技術，這些系統、培訓、工具和技術可以增強我們的員工並使我們的客戶受益，包括一個現代化的郵輪調度系統，與 2019 年相比，性能、容量和安全性提高了 800%，一個更智能的調度和運營協調建立可靠和可操作的時間表。我們機隊中的額外備用飛機，升級的技術基礎設施支持我們的網絡、運營、機場運營和維護團隊。

Together with our industry-leading customer-facing technologies like ConnectionSaver and Agent on Demand, both of which now are integrated in our mobile app. Some of these investments are obviously more marketable than others, but they all make a difference in our performance. Finally, I want to point out the biggest difference maker for United this holiday season, our frontline teams. They worked as one team. They volunteer to pick up extra trips and work over time and again, break record-setting cold temperature. It was the combination of their dedication and the proactive investment in technology and infrastructure that led to our success.

與我們行業領先的面向客戶的技術（如 ConnectionSaver 和 Agent on Demand）一起，這兩項技術現已集成到我們的移動應用程序中。其中一些投資顯然比其他投資更具市場價值，但它們都對我們的業績產生了影響。最後，我想指出這個假期對曼聯來說最大的改變，我們的前線球隊。他們作為一個團隊工作。他們自願加班加班，一次次打破創紀錄的低溫。正是他們的奉獻精神與對技術和基礎設施的積極投資相結合，才使我們取得了成功。

And with that, I'll hand it over to Andrew to talk about the numbers.

有了這個，我會把它交給安德魯來談談這些數字。

Thanks, Toby. TRASM for the fourth quarter finished up 25.8% and PRASM up 24.6% versus the same period in 2019, on 9.5% less capacity. This was similar performance to United's third quarter results and above the high end of our TRASM guidance for the quarter. TRASM growth or non-passenger revenue continued to outpace PRASM in Q4, although that will reverse in 2023, the reversal is due to cargo revenue declining year-over-year to new post-pandemic run rate that remained well above 2019 and co-brand credit card revenue growing slower relative to our rate of ASM growth for the year.

謝謝，托比。與 2019 年同期相比，第四季度 TRASM 和 PRASM 分別上漲 25.8% 和 24.6%，運力下降 9.5%。這與美聯航第三季度的業績相似，並且高於我們 TRASM 本季度指導的上限。 TRASM 增長或非客運收入在第四季度繼續超過 PRASM，儘管這種情況將在 2023 年出現逆轉，這種逆轉是由於貨運收入同比下降至新的大流行後運行率，該運行率仍遠高於 2019 年和聯合品牌信用卡收入的增長速度低於我們今年的 ASM 增長率。

PRASM in Q4 was strong across all parts of the network versus '19, with domestic results, up 23%, Latin, up 30%, Europe, up 11%, and Pacific, up 42%. International capacity in the quarter was down 12% and domestic was down 8%. Looking back at our revenue performance for all of 2022, our overall TRASM performance comparing to '19 was up 19.5%, about 6 points better than our expectation for the rest of the industry on average at this point and 3 points better than our network competitors during the same time period.

與 19 年相比，第四季度的 PRASM 在網絡的所有部分都表現強勁，國內業績增長 23%，拉丁美洲增長 30%，歐洲增長 11%，太平洋地區增長 42%。本季度國際運力下降 12%，國內運力下降 8%。回顧我們 2022 年全年的收入表現，我們的 TRASM 整體表現與 19 年相比增長了 19.5%，比我們此時對行業其他公司的平均預期高出約 6 個百分點，比我們的網絡競爭對手高出 3 個百分點在同一時間段內。

To meet our overall 2023 outlook, we're expecting flattish TRASM for the year versus 2022. The impact of cargo and other revenues on TRASM in '23 is a negative 2 to 3 points year-over-year, implying PRASM up about 2 to 3 points in our outlook. As we think about the revenue outlook for 2023, we are bullish about global long haul. We expect industry capacity across both the Atlantic and Pacific, where United is the largest carrier to be flattish versus 2019, which provides for an easy setup and positive RASM year-over-year.

為了滿足我們對 2023 年的整體展望，我們預計今年的 TRASM 與 2022 年持平。23 年貨運和其他收入對 TRASM 的影響同比下降 2 至 3 個百分點，這意味著 PRASM 上漲約 2 至我們的展望中有 3 點。在考慮 2023 年的收入前景時，我們看好全球長途航線。我們預計大西洋和太平洋地區的行業運力與 2019 年持平，其中聯合航空是最大的航空公司，這提供了一個簡單的設置和積極的 RASM 同比。

International demand remains incredibly strong, and we're looking at the potential for record profits and margins across our global network. Asia has traditionally been a margin drag on our global flying, but we've worked diligently to rebuild the network and close this gap. And we think 2023 will validate that we accomplish that goal. Asia is also close to being fully opened, allowing United to reestablish the bulk of the specific flying outside of China. It's worth noting that restrictions on the use of Russian airspace will constrain United from flying both of our China network in 2023. This same restriction will also limit our ability to fly to India. While I would not normally provide revenue details about the months within a quarter, I think it's important to share what we are seeing in Q1.

國際需求仍然非常強勁，我們正在尋找通過我們的全球網絡創紀錄的利潤和利潤率的潛力。亞洲傳統上一直是我們全球飛行的拖累，但我們一直在努力重建網絡並縮小這一差距。我們認為 2023 年將證明我們實現了該目標。亞洲也接近完全開放，使聯合航空能夠重新建立中國境外的大部分特定航班。值得注意的是，對俄羅斯領空使用的限制將限制美聯航在 2023 年飛行我們的兩個中國網絡。同樣的限制也將限制我們飛往印度的能力。雖然我通常不會提供一個季度內幾個月的收入細節，但我認為分享我們在第一季度看到的情況很重要。

Our unit revenue outlook for February and March is largely consistent with the levels we've seen in the past 3 quarters at roughly 25% higher than '19. We believe January is a negative outlier in Q1 with unit revenues compared to 2019 softer than the months after it. We think this is primarily due to holiday timing with less demand for incremental weekend trips, enabled by hybrid work schedules, so soon after the year-end holidays.

我們 2 月和 3 月的單位收入前景與我們在過去 3 個季度看到的水平基本一致，比 19 年高出約 25%。我們認為 1 月份是第一季度的負異常值，與 2019 年相比，單位收入低於其後幾個月。我們認為這主要是由於假期時間安排，在年終假期過後不久，由於混合工作時間表的支持，增加週末旅行的需求較少。

But we expect the second half of February and March to be back on trend with booked revenue already 30% to 40% above the same period in 2019, and I think this validates our excitement for 2023. Overall, we expect our Q1 TRASM to be up approximately 25% year-over-year.

但我們預計 2 月下半月和 3 月將恢復趨勢，預訂收入已經比 2019 年同期高出 30% 至 40%，我認為這證實了我們對 2023 年的興奮。總體而言，我們預計第一季度 TRASM 將是同比增長約 25%。

Another positive catalyst for 2022 revenues is the continued, but slow recovery of traditional large corporate business travel. While November and December were low relative to October, it's great to see that January is materially better by about 5 points versus the average for Q4. January represents the start of a new budget year for most, so it's a great way to start the year. And we've heard often that budgets in 2022 were exhausted early as to why November and December travel were a bit disappointing for large corporate travel.

2022 年收入的另一個積極催化劑是傳統大型企業商務旅行持續但緩慢的複蘇。雖然 11 月和 12 月的數據低於 10 月，但很高興看到 1 月比第 4 季度的平均水平高出約 5 個百分點。對於大多數人來說，一月代表著新預算年度的開始，因此這是開始新一年的好方法。我們經常聽到 2022 年的預算提前用完，為什麼 11 月和 12 月的旅行對於大型公司旅行來說有點令人失望。

I talked about the great setup we see in global long-haul earlier. We also see a nice setup for our domestic operations as constraints across the industry are everywhere, creating a favorable supply-demand environment. United is also now quickly executing on United next plans focused on gauge, premium seeding, revenue segmentation, signature interiors and most importantly, restoring and building connectivity, which suffered during the pandemic.

我之前談到了我們在全球長途中看到的偉大設置。我們還看到我們的國內業務設置良好，因為整個行業的限制無處不在，創造了有利的供需環境。美聯航現在也在迅速執行美聯航的下一個計劃，重點是儀表、優質種子、收入細分、標誌性內飾，最重要的是，恢復和建立在大流行期間遭受損失的連通性。

We're opening 17 new mainline gates in Newark and 20 in Denver in 2023, which will enhance our customer experience and improve reliability. In Denver, the new gates will allow us to grow our most profitable hub. And in Newark, the new gates will allow us to transition more flights to mainline from Express consistent with our United Next plans. In addition to gates, we opened more United Club space. In Newark, we have 69% more Club space and Denver will be up 180% versus 2019. We also have expanded Club space in Chicago by 40% with a new club that opened last week, and in Dallas by 43%. Most of these Club projects will soon be online and were planned during or prior to the pandemic. Importantly, there are more projects on the in the years to come.

2023 年，我們將在紐瓦克開設 17 個新主線登機口，在丹佛開設 20 個，這將增強我們的客戶體驗並提高可靠性。在丹佛，新大門將使我們能夠發展我們最賺錢的樞紐。在紐瓦克，新登機口將使我們能夠將更多航班從 Express 轉移到主線，這與我們的 United Next 計劃一致。除了登機口，我們還開放了更多聯合俱樂部空間。在紐瓦克，我們的俱樂部空間比 2019 年增加了 69%，丹佛的俱樂部空間將比 2019 年增加 180%。我們還在芝加哥擴大了 40% 的俱樂部空間，上週新開了一傢俱樂部，在達拉斯增加了 43%。這些俱樂部項目中的大多數將很快上線，並且是在大流行期間或之前計劃的。重要的是，未來幾年會有更多的項目。

Looking beyond 2023, we continue to implement our United next plans. We've adjusted our upward -- our long-term gauge plan so that by 2026, our North American gauge will be up 25% versus 2022 and 40% versus 2019. United continues to be undersized in gauge as we await delivery of our large narrow body planes that are largely absent from our current schedule, creating a margin gap versus our potential and versus others that have a significant fleet size in this category.

展望 2023 年以後，我們將繼續實施聯合航空的下一個計劃。我們已經向上調整了我們的長期軌距計劃，以便到 2026 年，我們的北美軌距將比 2022 年提高 25%，比 2019 年提高 40%。美聯航的軌距繼續偏小，因為我們正在等待我們的大型飛機交付我們目前的時間表中基本上沒有窄體飛機，這與我們的潛力以及在該類別中擁有大量機隊的其他飛機相比存在利潤差距。

Activity suffered in 2022 due to a reduction in RJ flying capabilities and delays from Boeing. Pilot staffing at our regional operators has stabilized since pay changes went into effect, essentially matching one of our competitors combined with our Aviate program that provides a 4-year transition plan for pilots from an express job to a United mainline career. Regional jet utilization is showing signs of improvement, but we still have a long way to go, and it will be until about 2025 or beyond to get to normal. We have also signed a new agreement with Mesa to expand our large RJ flying in 2023 and associated small community service, while our relationship with Air Wisconsin comes through a natural end.

由於 RJ 飛行能力下降和波音公司的延誤，2022 年的活動受到影響。自薪酬變化生效以來，我們區域運營商的飛行員人員配置已經穩定下來，基本上與我們的一個競爭對手相結合，並結合了我們的 Aviate 計劃，該計劃為飛行員提供了從快遞工作到美聯航幹線職業的 4 年過渡計劃。支線噴氣機的利用率顯示出改善的跡象，但我們還有很長的路要走，大約要到 2025 年或更長時間才能恢復正常。我們還與 Mesa 簽署了一項新協議，以在 2023 年擴大我們的大型 RJ 飛行和相關的小型社區服務，而我們與威斯康星航空公司的關係自然結束。

With this change, the number of regional partnerships is reduced from 6 to 5 and will eliminate approximately 40 single-class 50 CRJs that were not part of our long-term plans in exchange for adding dual-class 70 CRJs, a clear win for United, small communities and our customers. Rebuilding connectivity will be a key focus in 2023 and 2024 and will be significantly additive to RASMs as it was in 2018 and '19, giving us confidence as we do it with optimal gauge this time around. Thanks to the entire United team.

通過這一變化，區域合作夥伴的數量從 6 個減少到 5 個，並將消除大約 40 個不屬於我們長期計劃的單級 50 CRJ，以換取增加雙級 70 CRJ，這對 United 來說是一個明顯的勝利、小型社區和我們的客戶。重建連通性將成為 2023 年和 2024 年的重點，並將像 2018 年和 19 年那樣對 RASM 產生重大影響，這讓我們有信心在這一次以最佳衡量標準做到這一點。感謝整個曼聯團隊。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Gerry to discuss our financial results.

有了這個，我會把它交給 Gerry 來討論我們的財務結果。

Thanks, Andrew, and thank you to the whole United team for closing out the year strong, with adjusted pretax income of $1.1 billion, we came in ahead of our fourth quarter expectations and not only returned to pre-pandemic levels of profitability, but actually exceeded the fourth quarter of 2019 on both an operating and pre-tax margin basis. Even more encouraging, in the second half of 2022, we achieved an adjusted pretax margin of 9%, which matches our margin target for 2023 and puts us well on our way for that same success this year.

謝謝，安德魯，感謝整個美聯航團隊以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年，調整後的稅前收入為 11 億美元，我們在第四季度的表現超出了我們的預期，不僅恢復到大流行前的盈利水平，而且實際上營業利潤率和稅前利潤率均超過 2019 年第四季度。更令人鼓舞的是，在 2022 年下半年，我們實現了 9% 的調整後稅前利潤率，這符合我們 2023 年的利潤率目標，並使我們在今年取得同樣的成功。

Turning to costs. Our CASM-ex performance in the second half of 2022 meaningfully improved versus the start of the year. As I mentioned last quarter, a big driver of this success is the return of a grounded 777 to flying and further improvement in our operational reliability. As we know, a well-run operation is a more cost-efficient operation.

轉向成本。與年初相比，我們在 2022 年下半年的 CASM-ex 表現顯著改善。正如我在上個季度提到的那樣，這一成功的一個重要推動因素是停飛的 777 飛機恢復飛行以及進一步提高我們的運營可靠性。眾所周知，運營良好的運營是更具成本效益的運營。

Looking ahead, we expect first quarter 2023 CASM-ex to be down between 3% and 4%, with capacity up 20% versus the first quarter of 2022. On a full year basis, we expect 2023 CASM-ex to be about flat with capacity up high teens versus 2022. This full year cost outlook is inclusive of investments in the system that support operational reliability, our current expectations for new labor increases, representing about 4.5 points of CASM-ex, excluding any possible signing bonuses, and a higher inflation outlook for all parts of the business.

展望未來，我們預計 2023 年第一季度 CASM-ex 將下降 3% 至 4%，產能將比 2022 年第一季度增長 20%。從全年來看，我們預計 2023 CASM-ex 與與 2022 年相比，產能增加了十幾歲。這一全年成本展望包括對支持運營可靠性的系統的投資、我們目前對新勞動力增長的預期，相當於 CASM-ex 的 4.5 點左右，不包括任何可能的簽約獎金，以及更高的成本所有業務的通貨膨脹前景。

On the first point, one lesson learned during the pandemic recovery is that it is both economical and profit maximizing to provide cushion to our aircraft utilization. Instead of pushing utilization to its theoretical limit, we are focused on protecting our reliable operation. This minimizes delays and cancellations, which would otherwise drive higher costs, such as overtime and customary accommodation costs.

關於第一點，在大流行恢復期間吸取的一個教訓是，為我們的飛機使用提供緩衝既經濟又利潤最大化。我們沒有將利用率推到理論極限，而是專注於保護我們的可靠運行。這最大限度地減少了延誤和取消，否則會導致更高的成本，例如加班費和慣常的住宿費用。

Turning to our expectation on profitability. As Andrew mentioned, demand remains healthy. As a result, and using the January 10 forward curve for fuel prices, we expect our first quarter 2023 adjusted pre-tax margin to be around 3%, resulting in an adjusted diluted earnings per share between $0.50 and $1. Additionally, building on a successful second half of 2022 and with industry dynamics, Scott described at the start of the call, we feel even more confident about achieving our United Next 2023 adjusted pre-tax margin target of 9% and expected adjusted diluted earnings per share between $10 and $12 for the full year.

轉向我們對盈利能力的預期。正如安德魯所說，需求依然健康。因此，使用 1 月 10 日的燃料價格遠期曲線，我們預計 2023 年第一季度調整後的稅前利潤率約為 3%，從而導致調整後的攤薄每股收益在 0.50 美元至 1 美元之間。此外，在 2022 年下半年的成功和行業動態的基礎上，Scott 在電話會議開始時描述道，我們對實現 United Next 2023 調整後稅前利潤率目標 9% 和預期調整後攤薄每股收益更有信心全年分享 10 到 12 美元。

On aircraft, we currently expect to take delivery of 92 Boeing 737 MAXs, 2 Boeing 787s and 4 Airbus A321neo aircraft in 2023. Assuming all these aircraft are delivered, we now expect full year 2023 total adjusted capital expenditures to be around $8.5 billion. Even with this elevated level of CapEx based on the capacity, revenue and cost guidance we've outlined, we expect adjusted free cash flow to be positive for the full year.

在飛機方面，我們目前預計 2023 年將接收 92 架波音 737 MAX、2 架波音 787 和 4 架空客 A321neo 飛機。假設所有這些飛機都已交付，我們現在預計 2023 年全年調整後的資本支出總額約為 85 億美元。即使根據我們概述的產能、收入和成本指導，資本支出水平有所提高，我們仍預計全年調整後的自由現金流為正。

Looking beyond 2023, last month, we announced an aircraft order with Boeing that included 100 firm 787 aircraft, which will address much of our wide-body replacement needs through 2032. We also received options for up to 100 additional 787s that can be used for growth if there are margin accretive opportunities to do so. Additionally, the order included 100 incremental 737 aircraft to both meet planned United Next targets and start preparing for narrow-body replacements in 2027 and beyond.

展望 2023 年以後，上個月，我們宣布了與波音公司的飛機訂單，其中包括 100 架固定 787 飛機，這將解決我們到 2032 年的大部分寬體機更換需求。我們還收到了多達 100 架額外 787 的選擇權，可用於如果有增加利潤的機會，則可以實現增長。此外，該訂單還包括 100 架增量 737 飛機，以滿足計劃中的 United Next 目標，並開始為 2027 年及以後的窄體飛機更換做準備。

Our aircraft order book is one of our key assets as it provides us with both cost-saving replacement aircraft and the ability to take advantage of profit-enhancing growth opportunity. The cost of the flexibility built into the order book, we can also adjust the delivery timeline as the macro economy dictates.

我們的飛機訂單是我們的重要資產之一，因為它為我們提供了節省成本的替換飛機和利用增加利潤的增長機會的能力。訂單簿中內置的靈活性成本，我們還可以根據宏觀經濟的要求調整交貨時間表。

Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the year with liquidity of $18 billion and reduced our adjusted net debt by $3.3 billion versus year-end 2021. We continue to balance liquidity levels with deleveraging activity and financing opportunities as we expect to end the year, having met our 2023 target of adjusted net debt to EBITDAR of less than 3x. We're entering 2023 with a strong foundation, and I want to recognize all of the hard work that has gone into running this great airline. We look forward to delivering to our customers, employees and investors in 2023.

轉到資產負債表。我們年底的流動性為 180 億美元，與 2021 年底相比，我們的調整後淨債務減少了 33 億美元。我們繼續在流動性水平與去槓桿化活動和融資機會之間取得平衡，正如我們預計到今年年底，我們已經實現了 2023 年的目標調整後的淨債務為 EBITDAR 不到 3 倍。我們以堅實的基礎進入 2023 年，我想感謝為運營這家偉大的航空公司所做的所有辛勤工作。我們期待在 2023 年交付給我們的客戶、員工和投資者。

And with that, I will turn it over to Kristina for the Q&A.

然後，我將把它交給 Kristina 進行問答。

Thank you, Gerry. We will now take questions from the analyst community.

謝謝你，格里。我們現在將回答分析師社區的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Candice, please describe this procedure to ask the question.

Candice，請描述這個程序來提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The first question comes from Conor Cunningham from Melius Research.

第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Conor Cunningham。

There's been some pushback just on the 2023 jump fuel guide and just trying to get comfortable with the link between cost and revenue. So RASM is the highest it has basically ever been. And even with the capacity constraints out there, industry capacity is now being added. So what gives you the confidence that you might pass along additional cost headwinds on to customers in the current environment.

僅在 2023 年跳躍燃料指南上就有一些阻力，只是試圖讓成本與收入之間的聯繫變得舒適。所以 RASM 基本上是最高的。即使存在產能限制，現在仍在增加行業產能。那麼，是什麼讓您有信心在當前環境中將額外的成本逆風轉嫁給客戶。

Conor, let me provide a little bit of color on that and maybe Andrew will, as well. But first of all, we -- when we provide our fuel guidance, we did this quarter, what we always do, which is we look at the forward curve about a week ahead of the release. So last week, those numbers, as you know, can change daily.

Conor，讓我提供一點顏色，也許 Andrew 也會。但首先，我們 - 當我們提供燃料指導時，我們在本季度做了我們一直做的事情，即我們在發布前一周查看遠期曲線。所以上週，正如你所知，這些數字每天都在變化。

In fact, if we had run it more recently, we would have put out fuel numbers, potentially $0.10 to $0.15 higher. All things being equal, that would represent about a point of margin, but we are -- we continue to remain confident that there is the correlation between revenue and fuel that we've seen historically.

事實上，如果我們最近運行它，我們會公佈燃料數據，可能會高出 0.10 美元到 0.15 美元。在所有條件相同的情況下，這將代表一個利潤點，但我們 - 我們仍然相信我們在歷史上看到的收入和燃料之間存在相關性。

For the first quarter, near-term, we don't have quite the same ability that we would have during the full year. But even for the first quarter, we still have February, March and fuel will change daily. And for the full year, we're still comfortable that there is this correlation. And in fact, had we put a higher fuel number and there probably would have been a different revenue number.

對於第一季度，近期，我們的能力不如全年。但即使是第一季度，我們還有 2 月、3 月，燃料每天都會變化。對於全年，我們仍然對這種相關性感到滿意。事實上，如果我們輸入更高的燃料數量，可能會有不同的收入數字。

But let me just give you an example that gives me some comfort. But keep in mind that for the back half of 2022, where we achieved a 9% margin, fuel was $3.68. So we do have a lot of cushion. And I don't know if Andrew has any additional color.

但讓我舉個例子讓我感到些許安慰。但請記住，在 2022 年下半年，我們實現了 9% 的利潤率，燃油價格為 3.68 美元。所以我們確實有很多緩衝。而且我不知道安德魯是否有任何額外的顏色。

No, I think you covered it really well, Gerry. The -- we absolutely still do believe and have seen constantly, overtime, that fuel is a pass-through on both the up and the down. And the other thing I can tell you is, as we look at our advanced bookings, particularly starting in the mid-February time period, out well beyond that and into Q2. We're in a really good, strong supply-demand equation that's allowing our RM systems to actively work to do what they do best. So I feel really confident about the outlook.

不，我認為你講得很好，格里。 - 我們絕對仍然相信並且不斷地看到，加班，燃料是向上和向下的傳遞。我可以告訴你的另一件事是，當我們查看我們的提前預訂時，特別是從 2 月中旬開始的時間段，遠遠超過那個時間段並進入第二季度。我們處於一個非常好的、強大的供需方程中，這使得我們的 RM 系統能夠積極地工作以做他們最擅長的事情。所以我對前景非常有信心。

Okay. And then just on the United Next plan. So when you guys talked about that originally, it was all about leading on costs, and I realize the environment has changed a lot since then. But as you start to look at the cost structure that includes labor and so on. Is your expectation that this -- like that United becomes a cost story, again, going forward -- in the -- post-2023 world going forward.

好的。然後就是 United Next 計劃。所以當你們最初談論這個時，都是關於領先的成本，我意識到從那時起環境發生了很大變化。但是當你開始審視包括勞動力等在內的成本結構時。你是否期望這 - 就像曼聯一樣成為一個成本故事，再次向前 - 在 - 2023 年後的世界中前進。

Well, Conor, there's no question there's been an industry reset on costs, and I think Scott did a nice job sort of describing that and the cost convergence ahead. For us, if you just look at our guidance we put out about 6 months ago for 2023, there's been movement. There's no question, probably about 9 points, 3 points of that is just the capacity difference between what we thought 6 months ago versus what we're thinking today. Another 3 points in the labor numbers we put in, the rest is inflation and buffers.

好吧，康納，毫無疑問，行業對成本進行了重新調整，我認為斯科特在描述這一點以及未來的成本收斂方面做得很好。對我們來說，如果你只看一下我們大約 6 個月前發布的 2023 年指南，就會發現有進展。毫無疑問，大概是 9 分，其中 3 分只是我們 6 個月前的想法與今天的想法之間的容量差異。我們輸入的勞動力數據中還有 3 點，其餘是通貨膨脹和緩衝。

But what's important for the United Next plan is the relative cost story, which remains very intact. So whether it's the mainline gauge benefit we're seeing, we will see from all the additional aircraft or less reliance on single-class 50-seat aircraft that have come out and will continue to come out of the operation. We're very comfortable in the United Next cost story, as it's been adjusted for the industry cost impact.

但對 United Next 計劃來說重要的是相對成本故事，它仍然完好無損。因此，無論我們看到的是主線儀表的好處，我們將從所有額外的飛機或減少對已經出現並將繼續退出運營的單級 50 座飛機的依賴中看到。我們對 United Next 的成本故事感到非常滿意，因為它已經針對行業成本影響進行了調整。

Our next question is from Catie O'Brien from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Catie O'Brien。

Maybe just coming at the revenue question a little differently, maybe for Scott or whoever else wants to answer. How do you think about getting back to airline revenue as a percentage of GDP? I think that makes a lot of sense conceptually, but do you think the industry gets there on pricing if volume versus GDP is lower, given the capacity constraints we talked about?

也許只是對收入問題的看法有所不同，也許是為了斯科特或其他任何想回答的人。您如何看待航空公司收入佔 GDP 的百分比？我認為這在概念上很有意義，但考慮到我們談到的產能限制，如果銷量與 GDP 的比值較低，您認為該行業是否會在定價上達到目標？

Well, I mean if you go back and look at history, while load factors have gone up a little, I wouldn't expect a lot of change in load factor. And if you went back a few years, pricing in real terms, was higher than it is today, it remains a great value. I mean, air travel prices are probably 50% lower than they were about 30 years ago in real terms. And you can still frequently pay more for your Uber to the airport than you do for your airline ticket in Florida.

好吧，我的意思是，如果您回顧歷史，雖然載客率有所上升，但我預計載客率不會有太大變化。如果你回到幾年前，實際價格比今天高，它仍然很有價值。我的意思是，按實際價格計算，航空旅行價格可能比大約 30 年前低 50%。而且，與在佛羅里達州的機票相比，您仍然可以經常為前往機場的優步支付更多費用。

And so I think -- but I think that what this means is the era of $4 prices from Los Angeles to Cabo and $7 from New York to Florida or $9 from Houston to Central America are probably a thing of the past. And cost convergence -- except the other airlines decide how to price the product. But I'm pretty sure it's not after them what's happening to their cost structure. And as that is changing, we see it happening already. It is what happened last year.

所以我認為——但我認為這意味著從洛杉磯到卡波價格為 4 美元、從紐約到佛羅里達為 7 美元或從休斯敦到中美洲為 9 美元的時代可能已經成為過去。和成本趨同——除了其他航空公司決定如何為產品定價。但我敢肯定，他們的成本結構發生了什麼變化，這與他們無關。隨著這種情況的改變，我們已經看到它正在發生。這是去年發生的事情。

It's what changed last year. We see that continuing, to Andrew's earlier point, too. I look at the data as well and following our revenue management team is doing a great job. But the yield curve for February is higher than January. The old curve for March is higher than February and the yield curve for the second quarter is higher than March. And by the way, bookings were ahead in all periods.

這是去年發生的變化。我們看到這種情況還在繼續，對於 Andrew 之前的觀點也是如此。我也查看了數據，並且跟隨我們的收入管理團隊做得很好。但 2 月份的收益率曲線高於 1 月份。 3 月舊曲線高於 2 月，二季度收益率曲線高於 3 月。順便說一句，所有時期的預訂量都超前。

So I think it's a structural reset. I think it is the investor store or aviation, I think, it's good for everyone. I think it's particularly good for airlines like United that have this sophistication, the technology, the infrastructure to operate in this more challenging environment. But it's good for everyone. And it's just a structural reset that's reversing what happened over the past couple of decades, at least a possibility of it. I think it's likely, but we'll say at the least a possibility.

所以我認為這是結構性的重置。我認為是投資者商店或航空，我認為，這對每個人都有好處。我認為這對像美聯航這樣擁有在這個更具挑戰性的環境中運營的複雜性、技術和基礎設施的航空公司特別有利。但這對每個人都有好處。這只是一種結構性重置，正在扭轉過去幾十年發生的事情，至少有可能發生這種情況。我認為有可能，但我們至少會說有可能。

I live in New York, can definitely confirm on the Uber versus the airfare of late. So somewhere there. And obviously, a lot has changed, as we just talked about since the original United Next plan, particularly how the capacity bottlenecks we've been talking about have played out. How should we think about capacity growth over the next couple of years? Are you still targeting to be about 40% bigger in 2026, based on that 4% to 6% CAGR or help us reset the bar?

我住在紐約，絕對可以確認 Uber 和最近的機票。所以在那裡的某個地方。顯然，正如我們剛剛談到的自最初的 United Next 計劃以來，發生了很多變化，特別是我們一直在談論的容量瓶頸是如何發揮作用的。我們應該如何考慮未來幾年的產能增長？根據 4% 到 6% 的複合年增長率，您是否仍打算在 2026 年擴大 40% 左右，或者幫助我們重新設定標準？

I'll try that. I don't think we're going to reset the bar here. Obviously, this is really dynamic. And the OEM delivery delays, both on engines and aircraft have been really unprecedented. So we're not going to re-guide today to what 2026 looks like other than we're plotting our course in very bumpy skies when it comes to the availability of aircraft. And there's not a quarter that goes by where I don't get an update with obviously disappointing results from what our outlook looks like for aircraft deliveries. So we'll continue to monitor that. And at the appropriate point in time, we'll update the guidance.

我會試試的。我認為我們不會在這裡重置標準。顯然，這確實是動態的。發動機和飛機的 OEM 交付延遲確實是前所未有的。因此，我們今天不會重新指導 2026 年的情況，除非我們在飛機的可用性方面在非常顛簸的天空中規劃我們的路線。沒有一個季度我沒有得到更新，從我們對飛機交付的前景來看，結果顯然令人失望。因此，我們將繼續對此進行監控。在適當的時候，我們會更新指南。

I think the important point is we have real confidence in achieving our 14% margin under sort of all the plausible scenarios for aircraft deliveries.

我認為重要的一點是，在所有可能的飛機交付情景下，我們有信心實現 14% 的利潤率。

Next, we have Jamie Baker from JPMorgan.

接下來，我們有來自摩根大通的 Jamie Baker。

Gerry, a question on the labor cost assumptions, the pilots in the 4.5 point headwind. Do you expect the pilot economics to be backdated to January 1? Or are you using some other date? And also related to this, the EPS guide do you also consider Delta's profit-sharing formula to be market?

格里，關於勞動力成本假設的問題，飛行員在 4.5 點逆風中。您是否預計試點經濟學會追溯到 1 月 1 日？還是您正在使用其他日期？與此相關的是，您是否也認為 Delta 的利潤分享公式是市場的 EPS 指南？

Jamie, nice question, but neither one of those we're going to be able to talk about on the call. You're asking for too much information regarding potential negotiations.

傑米，好問題，但我們都不能在電話中談論這些問題。您要求提供有關潛在談判的太多信息。

Okay. Second question for Scott then. On the topic of cost conversions, I think you said that the ability for discounters to maintain a significant wage arbitrage is narrowing or impaired. I didn't quite get your language. But if we look at the Spirit and JetBlue TAs, yes, they're incrementally expensive, but the resulting wage advantage to, let's just go with Delta here, it's still pretty much the same. So were you implying that the arbitrage has to narrow even more? Or did I misunderstand?

好的。那麼斯科特的第二個問題。關於成本轉換的話題，我想你說過折扣商維持顯著工資套利的能力正在縮小或受損。我不太明白你的語言。但是，如果我們看一下 Spirit 和 JetBlue TA，是的，它們的價格越來越貴，但是由此產生的工資優勢，讓我們在這裡選擇 Delta，它仍然幾乎相同。那麼你是在暗示套利必須進一步收窄嗎？還是我誤會了？

I'm saying, not implying that I don't think a world where they pay meaningfully less and still hire and successfully fly and complete their schedules. I think that's the [nonsense] . I don't think they can do it. And one of the other ULCCs has really been struggling this year with a completion factor, which at least had us internally wondering if they had pilot shortage issues because system has been really pretty good. There was a 1-day FAA outage, but the weather has been good, and they've been consistently having problems.

我是說，並不是暗示我不認為他們支付有意義的更少但仍然僱用並成功飛行並完成他們的日程安排的世界。我認為那是[廢話]。我認為他們做不到。而其他 ULCC 之一今年確實在完成因素上苦苦掙扎，這至少讓我們在內部懷疑他們是否存在飛行員短缺問題，因為系統真的非常好。 FAA 中斷了 1 天，但天氣一直很好，而且他們一直遇到問題。

And then 8 or 9 days ago, they put out a $50,000 signing bonus for pilots. And look, however you want to calculate it, however you want to look at it. And if you're interested, I can give you some more real-time facts, like I've watched the data closely. And it's not happening. I mean what happened over the holidays wasn't just at one airline. And at all the airlines that had challenges, you can look at our data that we put out, you want data for what's happening right now, I can tell you some more stuff.

然後在 8 或 9 天前，他們為飛行員提供了 50,000 美元的簽約獎金。看，不管你想怎麼計算，怎麼看。如果你有興趣，我可以給你一些更實時的事實，比如我仔細觀察了數據。它沒有發生。我的意思是假期期間發生的事情不僅僅是在一家航空公司。在所有面臨挑戰的航空公司中，您可以查看我們發布的數據，您需要有關當前情況的數據，我可以告訴您更多信息。

But there are a number of airlines who cannot fly their schedules. The customers are paying the price. They're canceling a lot of flights. But they simply can't fly the schedules today. Maybe it's pilots, maybe it's something else, maybe it's technology, maybe it's infrastructure, but what I'm confident of, the big 3 -- and by the way, I think JetBlue has invested in this, the big 3 and JetBlue are operating at a different level than everyone else for whatever the reasons are.

但是有許多航空公司無法執行他們的時間表。客戶正在付出代價。他們取消了很多航班。但他們今天根本無法按計劃飛行。也許是飛行員，也許是其他原因，也許是技術，也許是基礎設施，但我對三巨頭充滿信心——順便說一句，我認為捷藍航空已經投資於此，三巨頭和捷藍航空正在運營無論出於何種原因，都處於與其他人不同的水平。

Next is Ravi Shanker from Morgan Stanley.

接下來是來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Scott, thanks for that kind of early intro to the call, pretty extraordinary set of kind of facts, an argument you laid out there. What does this mean for the industry kind of longer term? Kind of it's really unusual to see an industry, to your point, try to grow in the phase of the restrictions that they have like this. I mean how does this end? I mean do you think there's going to be like regulatory scrutiny on kind of airlines trying to grow when they can't, and that's hurting service? Or what happens next year?

斯科特，感謝你對電話的早期介紹，非常特別的一組事實，你在那裡提出的論點。從長遠來看，這對行業意味著什麼？就你的觀點而言，看到一個行業試圖在他們所擁有的限制階段發展，這真的很不尋常。我的意思是這是怎麼結束的？我的意思是，您是否認為會對試圖在無法實現增長的航空公司進行監管審查，而這會損害服務？或者明年會發生什麼？

Well, I think what it's going to lead to one way or another is less capacity. You just -- it's not mathematically possible for all the airlines to achieve their aspirations. And now I'll just give you the data. I'm not trying to pick on these 2 airlines. But like this seems so blindingly obvious to me. And we talked about it a year ago, we were right all this year with capacity coming in 7 points lower, and I feel even more confident that we're right today.

好吧，我認為它會以一種或另一種方式導致容量減少。你只是 - 從數學上來說，所有航空公司都不可能實現他們的願望。現在我只給你數據。我不是要挑剔這兩家航空公司。但像這樣對我來說似乎是顯而易見的。一年前我們就談過這個問題，今年我們都是對的，運力下降了 7 個百分點，我更加相信我們今天是對的。

And the data I'll give you is, snowstorm started, pretty big sandstorm started in Denver yesterday afternoon and continued through this morning, 11 inches of snow, that's a tough operating environment. There's 3 large airlines -- there's 3 airlines, 2 in addition to United that have big operations there. Yesterday in Denver and our mainline, we had a 100% completion factor, so no cancellation -- 12% of their flights, the other one canceled 27% of their flights.

我要給你的數據是，暴風雪開始了，昨天下午在丹佛開始了相當大的沙塵暴，一直持續到今天早上，有 11 英寸的積雪，這是一個艱難的操作環境。有 3 家大型航空公司 - 有 3 家航空公司，其中 2 家和聯合航空在那裡有大型業務。昨天在丹佛和我們的主線，我們有 100% 的完成率，所以沒有取消——12% 的航班，另一個取消了 27% 的航班。

Starting off today, we've canceled a little less than 1%. Each of them have canceled 33% of their flights, like this isn't new. And there's like a dozen of the Wall Street analysts that breathlessly publish a weekly report on industry scheduled capacity. You guys are looking at the wrong data. If you want a forward indicator, of what's going to happen with capacity, you should watch completion factor. One of you should start looking at completion factor because airlines that are running like that, it means they can't fly their schedule, and they're going to have to adjust one way or another. That's my thesis. That's what happened last year, it's what I think is going to happen next year.

從今天開始，我們取消了不到 1%。他們每個人都取消了 33% 的航班，這並不是什麼新鮮事。大約有十幾位華爾街分析師氣喘吁籲地發布一份關於行業計劃產能的每週報告。你們看錯了數據。如果你想要一個前瞻性指標，了解容量會發生什麼，你應該觀察完成因素。你們中的一個人應該開始考慮完成因素，因為像這樣運營的航空公司意味著他們無法按計劃飛行，他們將不得不以一種或另一種方式進行調整。那是我的論文。這就是去年發生的事情，這也是我認為明年會發生的事情。

And all of the structural issues are multiyear, I mean, all of them are 3 years at best to address. And you put all of them together, this is a long-term structural issue. And I think it challenges us too, but we just did more to invest for that future. So coming earlier than others and are better prepared to deal with it than everyone else. But it does challenge us too. But really like don't take my word for it, don't take the others' word for it, just watch the data. That's what's happening with completion factors, and that's going to tell you whether we're right again this year or everyone else is right when they say they're going to achieve the aspirations.

所有的結構性問題都是多年的，我的意思是，所有這些問題最多只能在 3 年內解決。而你把所有這些放在一起，這是一個長期的結構性問題。我認為這也對我們提出了挑戰，但我們只是為那個未來做了更多投資。所以比其他人來得早，並且比其他人都做好了應對它的準備。但它也確實挑戰了我們。但真的不要相信我的話，不要相信別人的話，只看數據。這就是完成因素所發生的事情，這將告訴你我們今年是否再次正確，或者其他人在他們說他們將實現願望時是正確的。

Just maybe one follow-up. I think the point on corporates running out of budgets towards the end of last year was an interesting point. Do you guys have much data on kind of what '23 corporate budgets look like to avoid a similar situation this year?

也許只是一個後續行動。我認為關於企業在去年年底耗盡預算的觀點很有趣。你們是否有很多關於 23 年公司預算的數據以避免今年出現類似情況？

I don't. What I'll tell you is that the reset looks very good as we head into January, obviously. So we're really pleased with those numbers. October was a really good month for corporate and January is tracking at that or above that. And so we'll see where we go from here. But I'll tell you, this is an important number for United. We monitor it a lot and it's moving in the right direction. And we're highly confident, particularly for long-haul global that we're going to get back to full strength, and that's an enormous tailwind, I think, for at least airlines that rely a lot on corporate travel.

我不。我要告訴你的是，顯然，隨著我們進入 1 月，重置看起來非常好。所以我們對這些數字非常滿意。 10 月對企業來說是一個非常好的月份，而 1 月正在追踪或超過那個。所以我們會看到我們從這裡去哪裡。但我會告訴你，這對曼聯來說是一個重要的數字。我們對其進行了很多監控，它正朝著正確的方向發展。我們非常有信心，特別是對於我們將恢復全力的全球長途航線，我認為，這至少對非常依賴商務旅行的航空公司來說是一個巨大的順風。

Next we hear from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

接下來我們將聽到來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth 的講話。

Just on the interrelation between fleet and CASM, if we just back up in time, you announced a big fleet order in June of 2021. I think that's when you unveiled United Next. And your target for this year was down 4% relative to '19 on CASM-ex. You updated those views. Obviously, we had less capacity, inflation, et cetera. So you went from down 4% to up 5%, another big fleet order in December and now the outlook is plus 15% versus 19% versus your initial down 4%.

就機隊和 CASM 之間的相互關係而言，如果我們及時備份，您在 2021 年 6 月宣布了一項大型機隊訂單。我想那是您發布 United Next 的時候。與 CASM-ex 的 19 年相比，您今年的目標下降了 4%。您更新了這些視圖。顯然，我們的產能、通貨膨脹等因素較少。所以你從下降 4% 上升到 5%，這是 12 月份的另一個大船隊訂單，現在前景是增長 15% 對 19% 而你最初下降 4%。

So I guess the question is, given the constraints that you articulated very well, why does this investment rate still make sense? If you can't grow at the rate that you hope to grow, why invest at a rate that assumes a much higher growth outlook at some point?

所以我想問題是，考慮到你很好地闡述的限制，為什麼這個投資率仍然有意義？如果你不能以你希望的速度增長，為什麼要以假設在某個時候有更高增長前景的速度進行投資？

Well, to be clear, I think we can grow at United. I don't think the industry can grow for all the reasons that we've set. I think at United, we can grow. We are clearly able to hire pilots, pre-pandemic, like most we ever hired was about 900 in a year. We were right at 2,500 last year. Our team -- our flight training team has done an amazing job.

好吧，要明確一點，我認為我們可以在曼聯成長。我認為該行業不會因為我們設定的所有原因而增長。我認為在曼聯，我們可以成長。我們顯然能夠聘請飛行員，在大流行之前，就像我們曾經僱用的大多數人一樣，一年大約 900 人。去年我們正好是 2,500。我們的團隊——我們的飛行訓練團隊做得非常出色。

There was a lot of work to do to get that training machine humming. It also helped that we had in our foresight to build 14 new simulators during the middle of the pandemic when everyone else was pulling back and shrinking. But that's part of the -- that's one of the probably the most complicated thing that airlines are struggling with, and we have that machine on here in Houston at the flight training center and we acquired 4,000 flight attendants this year. We opened a new flight training center, another investment we made last year.

要讓訓練機器運轉起來，還有很多工作要做。這也有助於我們有遠見地在大流行中期建造 14 個新模擬器，當時其他人都在退縮。但那是其中的一部分——這可能是航空公司正在努力應對的最複雜的事情之一，我們在休斯頓的飛行培訓中心安裝了這台機器，今年我們招募了 4,000 名空乘人員。我們開設了一個新的飛行訓練中心，這是我們去年進行的另一項投資。

I mean, really, the point is we invested to be able to grow. And I think we can grow. We have the other benefit of, we're taking 300-plus regional jets out of the system. So that creates a natural slack in terms of departures. If you got FAA, air traffic control issues. If you're a single fleet type airline, you buy all A320 family or all 737s like you don't have anything to take out to give you room. We do have 300 aircraft were to take out. But really, the point is all the investments, I mean, like one of the investments that I like that speaks to the foresight that we had coming into this was Clubs, and we increased our Club space by 48% during the pandemic, like that's always a challenge.

我的意思是，真的，關鍵是我們投資是為了能夠成長。我認為我們可以成長。我們還有另一個好處，我們正在從系統中淘汰 300 多架支線噴氣式飛機。因此，這在離職方面造成了自然的鬆弛。如果你有聯邦航空局，空中交通管制問題。如果您是單一機隊類型的航空公司，您會購買所有 A320 系列或所有 737，就像您沒有任何東西可以拿出來給您空間一樣。我們確實有 300 架飛機要起飛。但實際上，關鍵是所有投資，我的意思是，就像我喜歡的一項投資一樣，這說明了我們進入這個領域的先見之明是俱樂部，在大流行期間我們將俱樂部空間增加了 48%，就像那樣總是一個挑戰。

Trying to close Clubs when they're full in a constrained airport environment, it's always tough on customers like the pandemic was once in history, not once in a generation, once in history, a chance to do that with minimal impact because we didn't have nearly as many customers flying in 2020 and 2021. And we're the only ones that did it. And -- like there's just stuff like that everywhere that United did differently.

在受限的機場環境中客滿時試圖關閉俱樂部，這對客戶來說總是很艱難，就像這種流行病在歷史上曾經發生過，而不是一代人一次，歷史上發生過一次，這是一個以最小影響做到這一點的機會，因為我們沒有2020 年和 2021 年乘坐飛機的客戶幾乎沒有那麼多。而且我們是唯一做到這一點的人。而且 - 就像曼聯在任何地方都做得不同一樣。

So to be clear, while I don't think the industry can grow, I think -- we think United can. My guess is because of the OEM -- our full target because those will be behind. We're going to be flying a lower utilization than we were before, and there's going to be less regional. So we probably won't be all the way to our target. But I think we can uniquely grow and expand margins in this environment when everyone else can't, and it's because of all the investments we made to set up for this.

所以要明確一點，雖然我認為這個行業不會增長，但我認為——我們認為聯合航空可以。我的猜測是因為 OEM——我們的全部目標，因為那些將落後。我們的飛行利用率將比以前低，而且區域性也會減少。所以我們可能不會一直到我們的目標。但我認為我們可以在這種環境中獨特地增長和擴大利潤率，而其他人都做不到，這是因為我們為此所做的所有投資。

And obviously, hindsight is 2020. It's been a unique set of circumstances. But I guess the question is, had you invested at a rate more aligned with your DNA where there's real free cash flow to point to here. How much higher with this CASM outcome have been? In other words, if we're up mid-teens relative to 2019, could you have invested at a much more modest rate and gotten to the same outcome. And I appreciate your thoughts on it.

顯然，事後看來是 2020 年。這是一個獨特的環境。但我想問題是，你是否以更符合你的 DNA 的速度進行投資，那裡有真正的自由現金流指向這裡。這個 CASM 結果高了多少？換句話說，如果我們相對於 2019 年上升了十幾歲，您是否可以以更適度的速度進行投資並獲得相同的結果。我很欣賞你的想法。

I think if we -- I mean, look, if we invested -- if we had done the same thing everyone else did, we could have the same problems we have right now. Instead of canceling 1% of our flights today in Denver, we'd be canceling 33%. That's higher cost. Our costs would be higher. This isn't just investment like -- anyway, I think when you get to the end of the year, add dollars to donuts, we have the lowest CASM, the best CASM performance.

我認為，如果我們——我的意思是，看，如果我們投資——如果我們做了其他人所做的同樣的事情，我們可能會遇到與現在相同的問題。今天在丹佛，我們不會取消 1% 的航班，而是取消 33%。這樣成本更高。我們的成本會更高。這不僅僅是投資——無論如何，我認為當你到年底時，把美元加到甜甜圈上，我們有最低的 CASM，最好的 CASM 表現。

I've recognized other people have better guidance and then maybe they will have better guidance. But I think in the real world, we've come to grips with what the real world means and how -- what you have to do to operate it. And you can see it in the data -- excuse me, operating stats, you can see it in the financial stats. And it's a new world. You can't run the airline like you did in 2019.

我認識到其他人有更好的指導，也許他們會得到更好的指導。但我認為在現實世界中，我們已經掌握了現實世界的意義和方式——你必須做些什麼來操作它。你可以在數據中看到它——對不起，運營統計數據，你可以在財務統計數據中看到它。這是一個新世界。你不能像 2019 年那樣經營這家航空公司。

I remember, I read all the transcripts. And I read one of the transcripts, and Jamie asked someone, I don't remember which airline it was, but asked someone when are we going to get back to pre-pandemic normal. And I don't remember who it was or even what they said because I immediately thought the answer to that question is never.

我記得，我讀了所有的成績單。我讀了其中一份記錄，傑米問了一個人，我不記得是哪家航空公司了，但問了一個人我們什麼時候才能恢復到大流行前的正常狀態。我不記得那是誰，甚至不記得他們說了什麼，因為我立刻想到這個問題的答案永遠不會。

And I don't think anyone else just figured that out yet. The answer to that question is never. It is a new environment, it's a new industry. And that creates higher costs. It does, but it's also creating higher revenues. And I think it's going to lead to across the board, higher margins, but particularly for United.

而且我認為還沒有其他人弄明白這一點。這個問題的答案是永遠不會。這是一個新的環境，這是一個新的行業。這會產生更高的成本。它確實如此，但它也創造了更高的收入。而且我認為這將導致全面的利潤率提高，尤其是對曼聯而言。

Our next question is from Dave Vernon from Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的戴夫弗農。

Andrew, I just wondered if you could sort of tell us about what's embedded in the TRASM guide for being flat? I know you mentioned PRASM was up 2% to 3% cargo down. What are you expecting out of the card program and the other revenue line as we think about '22 to '23?

安德魯，我只是想知道你是否可以告訴我們關於扁平化的 TRASM 指南中嵌入了什麼？我知道你提到 PRASM 貨運量下降了 2% 到 3%。當我們考慮 22 到 23 年時，您對卡計劃和其他收入線有什麼期望？

We're still expecting really strong results, but it's just -- it's not keeping up with the ASM growth that creates that negative headwind. But our card program is doing really well. Our partnership with Chase is just top-notch, new members into the MileagePlus program relative to where we were in 2019, I think, were up about 50% in the same time period in 2022. So all of that's moving in the right direction. It's just not keeping up with ASM growth in 2023, which creates that inversion between PRASM and TRASM. And obviously, you understand the cargo part of that.

我們仍然期待非常強勁的結果，但它只是 - 它沒有跟上造成負面逆風的 ASM 增長。但我們的卡片計劃做得非常好。我們與大通銀行的合作夥伴關係是一流的，我認為，與 2019 年相比，前程萬里 (MileagePlus) 計劃的新成員在 2022 年同期增長了約 50%。因此，所有這些都在朝著正確的方向發展。它只是跟不上 2023 年 ASM 的增長，這造成了 PRASM 和 TRASM 之間的倒置。顯然，您了解其中的貨物部分。

Okay. And then maybe, Scott, just to ask the question, that just kind of came up as you're talking about the challenges around the industry having to reset its cost structure. Do you see any risk that as you're kind of looking out and building the revenue plan around your own cost structure, setting fares at a level where you can recover that cost pressure that the rest of the industry maybe doesn't get there.

好的。然後也許，斯科特，只是問這個問題，當你談論行業必須重置其成本結構所面臨的挑戰時，就會出現這個問題。你是否看到任何風險，因為你正在尋找並圍繞你自己的成本結構制定收入計劃，將票價設定在一個你可以恢復成本壓力的水平，而其他行業可能無法到達那裡。

I guess if the rest of the industry isn't quite recognizing what the cost pressure of operating in the new normal is going to be, do you think they're going to be under pricing and potentially creating some problems for you to absorb some of the costs that you're building into the network?

我想如果業內其他人不太清楚在新常態下運營的成本壓力會是什麼，你認為他們會定價過低並可能給你吸收一些問題帶來一些問題嗎？您在網絡中構建的成本？

Well, if they're right, I don't think they are, but if they're right and they can return to 2019 utilization and efficiency than we can to. That will be easy to just go back to flying. So no, the short answer is no. I'm not worried about it because if they are right, it will be really easy for us to just fly the aircraft a little harder.

好吧，如果他們是對的，我認為他們不是，但如果他們是對的，他們可以恢復到 2019 年的利用率和效率，而不是我們所能做到的。回到飛行狀態將很容易。所以不，簡短的回答是否定的。我並不擔心，因為如果他們是對的，我們就可以很容易地駕駛飛機。

And because we're growing within a few months, just slow the hiring down and within a few months, you'd be back, to be clear, I think that's extremely unlikely to happen. But we could adjust our cost structure down if it turned out that we were wrong, and that's the new normal, pretty easily.

而且因為我們在幾個月內就在增長，所以只要放慢招聘速度，幾個月之內，你就會回來，很明顯，我認為這極不可能發生。但如果事實證明我們錯了，我們可以調整我們的成本結構，這很容易成為新常態。

Next, we have Andrew Didora from Bank of America.

接下來，我們有來自美國銀行的 Andrew Didora。

I just kind of want to go back to fuel for a second, just because it has dominated my conversation so far. I guess when you think about it conceptually, looking at your 2023 guide, it seems like you're assuming fuel was going to $2.70 per gallon 2Q to 4Q. And Gerry, you said fuel is a pass-through. So I think that's down like at least 30% from current market. Just how do you underwrite that kind of 2% to 3% PRASM growth in 2023, if fuel is coming down?

我只是有點想回去加油一秒鐘，因為到目前為止它一直主導著我的談話。我想當你從概念上考慮它時，看看你的 2023 年指南，你似乎假設燃料將在第二季度到第四季度達到每加侖 2.70 美元。格里，你說燃料是一種傳遞。所以我認為這比當前市場至少下降了 30%。如果燃料下降，您如何在 2023 年保證 PRASM 的這種 2% 到 3% 的增長？

Let me start. Look, what I'd tell you is that I do think fuel is a pass-through in both directions and that it is dynamic on when we picked the number and we adjust the revenue forecast for it. But more importantly, where we are in terms of demand and supply and cost convergence, as Scott spoke about in quite a bit of detail, has just given us, I think, significant ability to utilize our revenue management system to make sure that the price points are where we need them to be.

讓我開始吧。看，我要告訴你的是，我確實認為燃料是雙向傳遞的，而且它在我們選擇數字和調整收入預測時是動態的。但更重要的是，正如 Scott 相當詳細地談到的那樣，我們在需求和供應以及成本趨同方面所處的位置，我認為剛剛給了我們利用我們的收入管理系統來確保價格的重要能力點是我們需要它們的地方。

And we did that all through last year. And in fact, we did that all throughout the entire pandemic, where we led the industry, I think, 11 out of 12 quarters. So we feel really good about where our revenue performance is. We feel really good about where our bookings are. We feel really great about our Q1 guidance, and we feel really good about where the RM system is currently managing price points for Q2 and beyond.

去年我們一直這樣做。事實上，我們在整個大流行期間都這樣做了，我認為，在 12 個季度中有 11 個季度我們處於行業領先地位。因此，我們對我們的收入表現感到非常滿意。我們對我們的預訂地點感到非常滿意。我們對第一季度的指導感覺非常好，我們對 RM 系統目前管理第二季度及以後價格點的位置也感覺非常好。

We definitely believe in the GDP relationship. It is converging, and it's converging for all the reasons that Scott talked about earlier. So we feel really bullish about the outlook and the ability to achieve the revenues that we need to achieve.

我們絕對相信 GDP 關係。它正在融合，而且出於 Scott 之前談到的所有原因，它正在融合。因此，我們對前景和實現我們需要實現的收入的能力感到非常樂觀。

Got it. Understood. And then, Andrew, you gave some pretty robust booking figures for February into March and kind of your whole outlook. Any color that you can provide in terms of how you're thinking about 1Q by region, which regions might you see accelerating, which decelerating from here? Just kind of get a sense of how you're seeing the world right now.

知道了。明白了。然後，安德魯，你給出了 2 月到 3 月的一些非常強勁的預訂數據以及你的整體前景。您可以根據您如何按區域考慮 1Q 提供任何顏色，您可能會看到哪些區域正在加速，哪些區域從這裡開始減速？只是有點了解您現在如何看待世界。

Sure. I'll give it a try. I will say that I started with earlier, the global long-haul environment where capacity ex-United is negative and capacity with United is just slightly -- about at 2019 levels relative to where GDP is this year, provided just an enormous set up to hit a home run on TRASM on our global long-haul network.

當然。我會試一試。我要說的是，我從早些時候開始，在全球長途環境中，不包括美聯航的運力為負，而美聯航的運力略有下降——相對於今年 GDP 的水平，大約在 2019 年的水平，只要有一個巨大的設置在我們的全球長途網絡上的 TRASM 上打出本壘打。

So we couldn't be more bullish about that. And I mean, simple, right? Supply is flat versus '19 and the propensity to travel along with the economy and GDP is dramatically higher, that sets up a very good opportunity for RM systems, and they're actively working to do that. and bookings for spring and summer look really strong. So to Europe, I just think it's going to be another record RASM and margin year based on that setup, and it looks really good.

所以我們不能對此更加樂觀。我的意思是，很簡單，對吧？與 19 年相比，供應持平，並且隨著經濟和 GDP 的增長而旅行的傾向大大提高，這為 RM 系統提供了一個非常好的機會，他們正在積極努力做到這一點。春季和夏季的預訂看起來非常強勁。所以對於歐洲，我只是認為這將是基於該設置的另一個創紀錄的 RASM 和保證金年，而且看起來非常好。

Across the Pacific, the same exact capacity set up, by the way, where it's slightly negative without United and about 100% with United relative to 2019 capacity and a very similar setup, but we also have the opening of China and all 3 markets, Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai, ultimately. And we think there's going to be a significant bounce back in demand like we've seen in Korea and Australia and other places in the region.

順便說一句，在整個太平洋地區，運力設置完全相同，在沒有美聯航的情況下略有負數，與 2019 年的運力和非常相似的設置相比，美聯航的運力約為 100%，但我們也開放了中國和所有 3 個市場，最後是香港、北京和上海。我們認為需求將出現大幅反彈，就像我們在韓國、澳大利亞和該地區其他地方看到的那樣。

The only, I think, thing we're watching more carefully is Japan where the numbers look really good, but it's based on U.S. point of sale at this point and not Japanese point of sale. We expect the Japanese point of sale to kick in later this spring and summer. So that one has been slower to rebound. But again, U.S. point of sale just had an enormous, I think, pent-up demand and is ready to fly and is doing so -- really covers the numbers.

我認為，我們正在更仔細觀察的唯一一件事是日本，那裡的數字看起來非常好，但目前是基於美國的銷售點，而不是日本的銷售點。我們預計日本銷售點將在今年春季和夏季晚些時候推出。所以那個反彈得比較慢。但同樣，我認為美國銷售點有一個巨大的被壓抑的需求，並且已經準備好起飛並且正在這樣做 - 真的涵蓋了這些數字。

Once Japan comes back online from a point-of-sale perspective, I think that further strengthens that as well. Latin America, near Latin America is the best I've ever seen it from a TRASM, RASM type perspective at this point. and Deep South America is also very good. It is just not nearly as good as the amazing performance we're seeing in Clubs in Latin America. So the setup for our global network is, I think, unbelievably good. And it's really a very simple math, and there's very little capacity growth out there and a lot of GDP.

一旦日本從銷售點的角度重新上線，我認為這也會進一步加強這一點。在這一點上，從 TRASM、RASM 類型的角度來看，拉丁美洲，靠近拉丁美洲是我見過的最好的。還有Deep South America也很好。這遠不如我們在拉丁美洲俱樂部看到的驚人表現。因此，我認為我們全球網絡的設置非常好。這真的是一個非常簡單的數學，那裡的產能增長很少，而 GDP 卻很高。

And if you look at our capacity guide, while we haven't given you an international and domestic breakout, you can look at what we're selling. And you can see how we've leaned into it for 2023 to make sure we maximize the profitability of the airline. And we think that we've done that very well.

如果你看看我們的容量指南，雖然我們沒有給你一個國際和國內的突破，但你可以看看我們賣的是什麼。您可以看到我們在 2023 年如何依靠它來確保我們最大限度地提高航空公司的盈利能力。我們認為我們做得很好。

Domestically, I also want to say, Scott, talked about this cost convergence. We talked about the capacity constraints. What people think they're going to fly in 2023 is not what will really be flown, that happened in 2022. We think that's going to happen in 2023. And given where we think total revenue is and ASMs will be less than that. We think there's a chance for a positive RASM domestically as well. And it's a really good setup. So across the globe, amazing setup here at home, also a very good setup for a positive outlook for the year.

在國內，我也想說，斯科特，談到了這個成本收斂。我們談到了容量限制。人們認為他們將在 2023 年飛行的東西並不是真正會在 2022 年飛行的東西。我們認為這將在 2023 年發生。考慮到我們認為總收入和 ASM 將低於此。我們認為國內也有可能出現積極的 RASM。這是一個非常好的設置。因此，在全球範圍內，國內的設置令人驚嘆，也是今年積極前景的良好設置。

Next is Helane Becker from Cowen.

接下來是來自 Cowen 的 Helane Becker。

So just one question here. When we look at air fares and we compare, say, premium economy to where business class was pre-pandemic, it seems like the price points moved to that level, right? So you have some economy fare. Then you have a premium fare in economy that seems to be equal to what business was, and you seem to have business that is significantly higher. So, a, is that observation correct, and b, what's your paid load factor in the front of the cabin?

所以這裡只有一個問題。當我們查看機票價格並將高級經濟艙與大流行前的商務艙進行比較時，價格點似乎已移至該水平，對嗎？所以你有一些經濟艙票價。然後你的經濟艙票價似乎與商務艙的票價相同，而且你的商務艙票價似乎要高得多。那麼，a，這個觀察是否正確，b，機艙前部的付費負載係數是多少？

There's a lot of numbers you put out there, Helane. What I'll try to say is that paid first-class load factors, particularly here domestically are up a lot. They're up 6 points. And so our RASM growth in the first-class cabin versus the main cabin, domestically, is 15 points higher. So it's doing incredibly well, which we're excited to see, obviously, because of our move towards more dual-class aircraft and monetizing the premium cabins.

Helane，你列出了很多數字。我想說的是，帶薪頭等艙的載客率，尤其是國內的載客率上升了很多。他們上升了 6 分。因此，我們在國內頭等艙的 RASM 增長比主艙高 15 個百分點。所以它做得非常好，我們很高興看到這一點，顯然，因為我們轉向更多的雙艙飛機並通過高級客艙獲利。

On our global long-haul fleet, I think it's a little bit different than maybe what you said. The public price points may be exactly what you said, I don't know. But the performance, I would say, is that Polaris is not back to where we'd like it to be just yet. But the middle cabin, the Premium Plus cabin is and better and the Coach cabin is and better.

在我們的全球長途機隊中，我認為這可能與您所說的有點不同。公價點可能就是你說的，我不知道。但我想說的是，北極星的表現還沒有回到我們希望的狀態。但是中間艙，Premium Plus 艙更好，Coach 艙更好。

And so the RASM performance on board the aircraft is a little bit more tilted towards the back of the aircraft or the middle of the aircraft on the global long fleet than it is to front. And why I'm also particularly excited about this recovery in large corporate traffic is that is how we tend to fill the front of the aircraft. And so the trends we see in January looked just really good. And that also is a positive TRASM tailwind to the global network as we do a much better job of filling up Polaris with higher quality yield than we did in 2022. And I'm confident when we end 2023, we'll be able to report that the Polaris paid load factors and paid yield are much closer to their 2019 baseline than they were in 2022.

因此，在全球長機隊中，飛機上的 RASM 性能更傾向於飛機後部或飛機中部，而不是前部。為什麼我也對大型企業交通的複蘇感到特別興奮，因為這就是我們傾向於填補飛機前部的方式。因此，我們在 1 月份看到的趨勢看起來非常好。這也是 TRASM 對全球網絡的積極順風，因為我們在以比 2022 年更高的質量產量填充北極星方面做得更好。而且我有信心，到 2023 年結束時，我們將能夠報告Polaris 的付費載客率和付費收益比 2022 年更接近其 2019 年的基線。

Okay. That makes perfect sense. And then just for my follow-up question. I'm not sure whether you said that or Scott said this, but if '22 -- if nobody flew their capacity original plans in '22, which they didn't, and they do it in '23 and the infrastructure issues, and I don't see the government rushing to invest in air traffic control.

好的。這是完全有道理的。然後只是我的後續問題。我不確定你是這麼說的還是斯科特這麼說的，但是如果 22 年——如果沒有人在 22 年實現他們的容量原始計劃，他們沒有，而他們在 23 年和基礎設施問題上做到了，並且我看不到政府急於投資空中交通管制。

In fact, I see it getting worse. I don't see the FAA investing. As you think about this, does '23 get worse than '22 and '24 get worse than '23? And doesn't that accelerate to the point where you can't -- the industry just have more because you run out of space.

事實上，我看到它變得更糟。我沒有看到 FAA 投資。當您考慮這個問題時，'23 會比'22 更糟，'24 會比'23 更糟嗎？這難道不會加速到你不能的地步——這個行業只是因為你用完了空間而擁有更多。

Pretty close to yes, is the answer. We're near the limit on capacity -- on flights in the system. There are places that are at the limit, and we're near. And you can see it, like it works fine, and you can add more on good weather days when absolutely nothing goes wrong. Something goes wrong every week. I mean there's weather, there's systems issues that happens at the FAA, that happens at the individual airlines, there's pipelines that get cut for fuel at airports, there's vendors that fuel airplanes at airports that are short-staffed or have higher sick calls, just the stuff that happens every day. And we're near the capacity limit, in terms of total number of flights.

答案非常接近是。我們已接近容量限制——系統中的航班。有些地方已經到了極限，而我們已經接近了。你可以看到它，就像它工作正常一樣，你可以在天氣好的時候添加更多，絕對沒有問題。每週都會出問題。我的意思是天氣，美國聯邦航空局發生的系統問題，個別航空公司發生的系統問題，機場的燃料管道被切斷，供應商在人手短缺或病假電話較多的機場為飛機加油，只是每天發生的事情。就航班總數而言，我們已接近容量限制。

And Scott, we should add to that though, what you said earlier that we're getting rid of a large number of regional jets. So the departure activity that we're planning from our 7 key hubs in 2023 is still materially behind where we're in 2019 from a departure level. The ASMs are a whole another story, as we've talked about because of what we're doing with gauge. But we've created the room in our hubs to be able to execute our plan. We have sufficient runway and gate space to do so.

斯科特，我們應該補充一點，你之前說過我們正在淘汰大量支線噴氣式飛機。因此，我們計劃在 2023 年從 7 個主要樞紐出發的出發活動仍然大大落後於我們在 2019 年的出發水平。 ASM 完全是另一回事，正如我們所討論的那樣，因為我們正在使用 gauge 進行操作。但是我們已經在我們的樞紐中創造了空間來執行我們的計劃。我們有足夠的跑道和登機口空間來這樣做。

Our next question is from Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group。

I got one near-term and then one bigger picture question. Just when I just look fourth quarter to first quarter, the RASM guide, the implied revenue guide just worse than normal seasonality. Just given everything you were saying about February, March bookings, just help square with the revenue and RASM guide, please?

我得到了一個短期問題，然後是一個更大的問題。就在我只看第四季度到第一季度的時候，RASM 指南，隱含的收入指南比正常的季節性差。鑑於您所說的有關 2 月、3 月預訂的所有內容，請幫助計算收入和 RASM 指南，好嗎？

Yes. What I would say is that we definitely see a different set of numbers for like January 6 through February 15 than we do beyond that. And as I think about it, it's our hypothesis that we do have a bit of a different type of seasonality, post-pandemic, than we did have pre-pandemic. So it just depends on the year -- the quarter-over-quarter, year that you're looking at. But look, the trade-off would be every weekend is potentially a holiday, allowing us hopefully to be able to de-peak the summer and run a more constant level of operation from mid-February all the way through October, that's really exciting and a lot more upside than maybe a few weeks in January that don't look as good as they used to be. So I think the trade-off is fine. But our hypothesis at this point, it is a different type of seasonality related to a post-pandemic environment.

是的。我要說的是，從 1 月 6 日到 2 月 15 日，我們肯定會看到一組不同的數字。正如我所想，我們的假設是，與大流行前相比，大流行後我們確實有一些不同類型的季節性。所以這只取決於年份——你正在查看的季度環比年。但是看，權衡是每個週末都可能是假期，讓我們有希望能夠在夏季減少高峰，並從 2 月中旬一直到 10 月運行更穩定的運營水平，這真的很令人興奮，比 1 月份的幾週看起來不像以前那麼好。所以我認為權衡是好的。但我們目前的假設是，這是一種與大流行後環境相關的不同類型的季節性。

Okay. And then, Scott, so bigger picture, if you're not getting the unit cost leverage from capacity growth that maybe you thought you would have gotten a year ago, I guess why grow so much and risk adding too much capacity to the market and risk pricing and maybe just ask differently, if you didn't grow as much, do you think you'd still hit the 9% margin, but at the same time, just generate better free cash flow?

好的。然後，斯科特，從更大的角度來看，如果你沒有從容量增長中獲得單位成本槓桿，也許你認為一年前你會得到，我想為什麼要增長這麼多並冒著向市場增加太多容量的風險，風險定價，也許只是問不同的問題，如果你沒有增長那麼多，你認為你仍然會達到 9% 的利潤率，但與此同時，只是產生更好的自由現金流嗎？

Well, to be clear, we're focused on margin, not CASM. We're focused on margin. And while we aren't updating upgrading our margin guidance, we're already way ahead of the Street. I think everything we had in our deck today and everything we've talked about today certainly creates a plausible case that margins are going to be higher for all the reasons we've talked about. If we were not growing, I think our margins would be lower.

好吧，需要明確的是，我們關注的是保證金，而不是 CASM。我們專注於保證金。雖然我們沒有更新我們的利潤率指引，但我們已經領先於華爾街。我認為我們今天所擁有的一切以及我們今天所談論的一切肯定會創造一個合理的案例，即由於我們所談論的所有原因，利潤率將會更高。如果我們不增長，我認為我們的利潤率會更低。

I mean, clearly, it would impact our CASM. But I think the capacity that we're going to add would be soaked up by someone else. And I think that -- anyway, I think our margins would be meaningfully less if we weren't doing what we're doing. And so we're doing it because we think this is a -- look, I think this is a once in the history of the industry opportunity. This is an event that's never happened before.

我的意思是，很明顯，這會影響我們的 CASM。但我認為我們要增加的容量會被其他人吸收。而且我認為 - 無論如何，如果我們不做我們正在做的事情，我認為我們的利潤率會大大降低。所以我們這樣做是因為我們認為這是——看，我認為這是行業歷史上一次的機會。這是以前從未發生過的事件。

And I get that most of you on the sell side disagree. And I accept that you disagree and -- but I think the world has changed and the industry has changed. And by the way, we do have a lot of flexibility. And what I would say, you didn't ask this as a question but what I would say is if we're not -- if there's some reason that where it doesn't look like we're going to hit our targets, if we're structurally missing our targets, if we're underperforming the industry and missing our targets, we won't do all this growth.

我知道你們中的大多數賣方都不同意。我接受你不同意，但我認為世界已經改變，行業也已經改變。順便說一句，我們確實有很大的靈活性。我想說的是，你並沒有把這個問題作為一個問題來問，但我想說的是，如果我們沒有——如果有某種原因使我們看起來不像是要實現我們的目標，如果我們在結構上沒有達到我們的目標，如果我們表現不佳，沒有達到我們的目標，我們就不會實現所有這些增長。

I mean we have a ton of flexibility to move aircraft around. And we won't do it. So it isn't just like -- and the torpedoes. This is as long as it's working, we're going to keep moving. But I will tell you, I have a pretty single data point, increases my confidence at least it's working. So look, we had with the highest pre-tax margins and fourth quarter of the big network carriers at least.

我的意思是我們有很大的靈活性來移動飛機。我們不會這樣做。所以它不僅僅是——還有魚雷。只要它起作用，我們就會繼續前進。但我會告訴你，我有一個非常單一的數據點，增加了我的信心，至少它是有效的。所以看，我們至少在大型網絡運營商中擁有最高的稅前利潤率和第四季度。

We amazingly enough, if you look at -- actually, we had the highest free cash flows in 2022 with the lowest net debt if you use traditional GAAP accounting with operating leases and include pensions, we had the lowest leverage ratio like I mean, it's working. If you look at our operating results, what's happening in Denver today, like it's working. So we're not going to change, of course, on something that's working. But if it stops working, then we absolutely have the flexibility to adjust.

令人驚訝的是，如果你看——實際上，如果你使用傳統的 GAAP 會計和經營租賃並包括養老金，我們在 2022 年擁有最高的自由現金流和最低的淨債務，我們的槓桿率最低，就像我的意思一樣，它是在職的。如果你看看我們的經營業績，今天在丹佛發生的一切，就像它在運作一樣。所以我們當然不會改變一些有效的東西。但如果它停止工作，那麼我們絕對有調整的靈活性。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

First up is Leslie Josephs from CNBC.

首先是來自 CNBC 的 Leslie Josephs。

Just curious if you're benefiting at all from book away from Southwest after the holiday meltdown and also if you're benefiting from pilot attrition coming from Southwest.

只是好奇假期崩潰後你是否從西南航空的預訂中受益，以及你是否從西南航空的飛行員流失中受益。

And second question, do you see any impact from many travelers that are cashing in on their miles this year that they might have built up during the pandemic? And does that help or hurt you?

第二個問題，您是否看到許多旅行者在今年大流行期間可能積累的里程中兌現了任何影響？這對你有幫助還是傷害了你？

I'll give it a try, Leslie, it's Andrew. I think we're benefiting from running a world-class great global airline. When we look at the data and particularly not over like one week, right, over -- or 1 quarter, when we look at the data over the last year plus, our team has been just hitting the home run and the data shows it. So I think we're really proud of where we're at. We intend to keep that online. We have the appropriate buffers to make sure we can continue to deliver for our customers going forward, and we shall.

我試試看，萊斯利，我是安德魯。我認為我們正在從經營一家世界級的偉大的全球航空公司中受益。當我們查看數據時，尤其是不超過一周，對，超過 - 或一個季度，當我們查看過去一年的數據時，我們的團隊剛剛打出本壘打，數據顯示了這一點。所以我認為我們真的為我們所處的位置感到自豪。我們打算保持在線狀態。我們有適當的緩衝來確保我們能夠繼續為我們的客戶提供未來的服務，我們會的。

In terms of frequent flyer growth, what I'll say is the program is incredibly healthy. The redemption rates are quite normal, given where we are with inventory availability and our customers are using their miles to fly all over the world in the largest global network of any U.S. carrier.

就常旅客增長而言，我要說的是該計劃非常健康。考慮到我們的庫存可用性以及我們的客戶正在使用他們的里程在任何美國航空公司最大的全球網絡中飛往世界各地，兌換率是相當正常的。

And on the pilot front, what I'd say is it's an amazing change. I tried to get out to the pilot training center and see new hire classes, and we're hiring 200 a month, and I've started asking where they come from, show of hands. It used to be like from any of the large airlines, ULCCs, LCCs, big airlines, hardly any because you had to give up seniority to come. We now have a high percentage of people in those classes that are coming from all airlines. And I think the reason is because United has -- if you're a pilot -- well, if you're anyone and you aspire to a career in aviation, United is a place to go.

在試點方面，我想說的是這是一個驚人的變化。我試著去飛行員培訓中心看新員工課程，我們每個月招聘 200 人，我開始問他們來自哪裡，舉手錶決。它曾經像任何一家大型航空公司、ULCC、LCC、大型航空公司一樣，幾乎沒有，因為你必須放棄資歷才能來。現在，這些班級中有很大一部分人來自所有航空公司。我認為原因是因為美聯航——如果你是一名飛行員——好吧，如果你是任何人並且你渴望在航空領域謀得一份職業，美聯航就是一個去處。

We're well on our way in to be the biggest, but also the best Andrew talked about the brand, the reputation that matters a lot to people. Our pay rates are going to always be vary, depending on the timing of contracts, but always basically going to be at the top of the industry. If you're a pilot, United has the most growth opportunities and most opportunities, the fastest path to captain.

我們正朝著成為最大但也是最好的品牌邁進，安德魯談到這個品牌，對人們來說非常重要的聲譽。我們的工資率總是會有所不同，具體取決於合同的時間，但基本上總是處於行業的頂端。如果你是一名飛行員，曼聯擁有最多的成長機會和最多的機會，是成為機長的最快途徑。

The most widebodies of any airline by far in the country like we're the place to go. And people are actually giving up their seniority at all of our competitors for the opportunity to come and have a future that's a testament to what all the people of United have accomplished and how bright we feel like the future looks.

迄今為止，我們是該國航空公司中最寬體的航空公司，就像我們要去的地方一樣。人們實際上放棄了他們在我們所有競爭對手中的資歷，以獲得機會並擁有一個未來，這證明了所有曼聯人所取得的成就以及我們認為未來看起來多麼光明。

Next is Alison Sider from the Wall Street Journal.

接下來是來自《華爾街日報》的 Alison Sider。

Just wanted to ask about the FAA outage last week. And I don't know how you're thinking about that. Is there a concern that there are other sort of these systems that are vulnerable or that you think of as single points of failure and how you're thinking about it? And what kind of conversations you've had with the FAA since?

只是想問一下上周美國聯邦航空局的停運。我不知道你是怎麼想的。是否擔心還有其他類型的系統易受攻擊或您認為是單點故障以及您是如何考慮的？從那以後你與美國聯邦航空局進行了什麼樣的對話？

So I think this ought to be a wake-up call to -- for all of us in aviation, something -- many of us in aviation have been saying for a long time that the FAA needs more resources. By the way, I think they do an amazing job. During the Christmas struggles with the weather, a bunch of great things that they did. But 2, in particular, the -- water main break that flooded the tower in Newark and the same thing happened at one of the towers in Chicago, and they really quickly moved into backup facilities and kept the operation running. I mean, just a lot of people jump through a lot of hoops and deserve a lot of credit for that.

所以我認為這應該是一個警鐘——對於我們航空業的所有人來說——我們航空業的許多人長期以來一直在說美國聯邦航空局需要更多的資源。順便說一句，我認為他們做得很棒。在與天氣作鬥爭的聖誕節期間，他們做了很多很棒的事情。但是 2，特別是 - 水管破裂淹沒了紐瓦克的塔樓，同樣的事情發生在芝加哥的一座塔樓，他們真的很快轉移到備用設施並保持運營。我的意思是，只是很多人跳過了很多圈，因此值得很多讚揚。

But the hard facts are the FAA's budget, in real terms, it's lower than it was 20 years ago. But the amount of work that they've been asking to is significantly higher. Huge resources devoted to space launches, drones, thousands of people were working on aircraft certification programs in the aftermath of the MAX disaster. And so they've had to rob Peter to pay Paul.

但鐵的事實是美國聯邦航空局的預算，實際上，它比 20 年前要低。但是他們一直要求的工作量要高得多。 MAX 災難發生後，投入大量資源用於太空發射、無人機和數千人的飛機認證計劃。所以他們不得不搶劫彼得來支付保羅。

And they were asked to do more, and they're doing it with less money. There's fewer controllers than there were 30 years ago. And it's people, it's technology. And look, here in the United States, we should have a world-class best aviation system in the world. And we're putting at risk if we don't invest in it. And this is infrastructure. It was great that we passed a bipartisan infrastructure build.

他們被要求做更多的事情，而且他們用更少的錢來做。現在的控制器比 30 年前少了。是人，是技術。看，在美國這裡，我們應該擁有世界一流的世界最佳航空系統。如果我們不投資，我們就會面臨風險。這是基礎設施。很高興我們通過了兩黨基礎設施建設。

This ought to be bipartisan as well, by the way, that we passed the bipartisan infrastructure bill. But this isn't concrete, but modern systems, modern technology and the right number of people for the FAA is an infrastructure investment that will pay dividends many times over for the country. And so I hope that this is an opportunity for us to look at this just like we looked at the country at the infrastructure bill in a bipartisan way, get the agency, the resources that they need because we have asked them to do more, and we'll all be better off.

這也應該是兩黨合作的，順便說一下，我們通過了兩黨基礎設施法案。但這不是具體的，但現代系統、現代技術和 FAA 的適當人數是一項基礎設施投資，將為該國帶來多倍的紅利。因此，我希望這對我們來說是一個機會，就像我們以兩黨合作的方式審視這個國家的基礎設施法案一樣，讓該機構獲得他們需要的資源，因為我們要求他們做更多的事情，並且我們都會過得更好。

And then if I could ask one more just on restoring flights to China. Are there like approvals either in China or the U.S. at the government level or like diplomatic things that need to happen in order to ramp that flying back up?

然後我能否再問一個關於恢復飛往中國的航班的問題。在中國或美國，是否有類似的政府層面的批准或類似的外交事件需要發生才能使飛行恢復正常？

There are. At this point, United Airlines holds the rights to fly 4 flights per week to China. We intend to convert our current one-stop service to nonstop sometime in the next few weeks, hopefully. But we do not hold rights at this point to increase our service any further. And I believe that is an industry-wide type of situation. So at this point, there's no green light to go beyond what we're currently flying.

有。至此，美聯航擁有每週4個航班飛往中國的權利。我們打算在未來幾週的某個時候將我們目前的一站式服務轉變為不間斷服務，希望如此。但我們目前無權進一步增加我們的服務。我相信這是整個行業的情況。所以在這一點上，沒有綠燈可以超越我們目前的飛行範圍。

Next is David Schaper from NPR.

接下來是來自 NPR 的 David Schaper。

I appreciate guys doing this, this morning. A couple of questions I had have been asked and answered. So I'm going to kind of shift gears into something that might be coming out of blockfield. But the Biden administration announced last week, a plan to get the transportation sector down to net zero emissions by the year 2050. I know the aviation industry has that goal as well. But how realistic is that really? And what is the cost to an airline like United to try to shift to sustainable aviation fuels to possible hydrogen-powered engines, that sort of thing?

我感謝大家今天早上這樣做。我已經被問到並回答了幾個問題。因此，我將換檔到可能來自街區領域的東西。但拜登政府上周宣布了一項計劃，到 2050 年將交通部門降至淨零排放。我知道航空業也有這個目標。但這真的有多現實？像美聯航這樣的航空公司試圖將可持續航空燃料轉向可能的氫動力發動機的成本是多少？

Well, I haven't seen the details of their plan. But I think as a global citizen, it's probably the most important thing that our generation needs to accomplish. I'm proud at United that we are not -- we are the leading airline around the globe on real sustainability initiatives, and we are one of the leading corporations.

好吧，我還沒有看到他們計劃的細節。但我認為作為一個全球公民，這可能是我們這一代人需要完成的最重要的事情。我為美聯航感到自豪，我們不是——我們是全球領先的真正可持續發展倡議的航空公司，我們是領先的公司之一。

We are focused at United, but I think it's the right focus for aviation on a number of fronts. One, unsustainable aviation fuels, by the way, the build back -- or the Inflation Reduction Act has a number of provisions. Regardless of what you think about everything else in the act, the sustainability provisions are meaningful, not just for our industry, but for everyone. And I think our transformative legislation makes it viable to start making investments in hydrogen and SAF. And we've been the leader and we've got even more coming, but a lot of projects that are going to be hard to do, all of a sudden start to pencil out, at least potentially pencil out.

我們專注於聯合航空，但我認為它在許多方面都是航空業的正確關注點。一，不可持續的航空燃料，順便說一句，重建 - 或通貨膨脹減少法案有許多規定。無論您如何看待該法案中的其他一切，可持續性條款都是有意義的，不僅對我們的行業，而且對每個人。而且我認為我們的變革性立法使開始對氫和 SAF 進行投資成為可能。我們一直是領導者，我們還有更多的人來，但是很多很難做的項目，突然之間開始用鉛筆劃出來，至少有可能用鉛筆劃出來。

And so I think it's driving a lot of investment, and you can expect more from us on that. A lot of excitement in electric aircraft, what we're working on there. And while I can't replace everything because it's never going to be big airplanes flying long distance. It will be a part of the solution. And then finally, carbon sequestration, I'm a climate change geek and have been for 30 years, and I used to have conversations like this.

所以我認為它正在推動大量投資，你可以期待我們在這方面有更多的投資。電動飛機有很多令人興奮的地方，我們正在那里工作。雖然我不能更換所有東西，因為它永遠不會是長途飛行的大型飛機。這將是解決方案的一部分。最後，碳封存，我是一個氣候變化極客，已經 30 年了，我曾經有過這樣的對話。

It wasn't too long ago, even just a couple of years ago, and I would have to explain what the word sequestration meant. It's real progress actually that people know what it is now and there's more investment. We're here in Houston. Occidental is our partner in a sequestration project. They're a leader on that -- in that front.

不久前，甚至只是幾年前，我還得解釋封存這個詞的意思。人們現在知道它是什麼，並且有更多的投資，這實際上是真正的進步。我們在休斯頓。西方石油公司是我們在封存項目中的合作夥伴。他們是這方面的領導者——在那方面。

But a lot of others are moving into sequestration and the 45Q changes that happened in the Inflation Reduction Act are also really consequential for carbon sequestration. So I'm more encouraged today, I think, than I've ever been at the possibilities, but it's a lot of hard work ahead, and it doesn't happen overnight. I mean there's not a magic silver bullet. But I'm also proud that United is leading, and we partner with everyone that would include the DOT, anyone that's interested in doing the right thing and solving this in a real way. We're happy to be partnered with.

但是很多其他人正在進入封存，而《減少通貨膨脹法》中發生的 45Q 變化也對碳封存產生了真正的影響。因此，我認為，今天我比以往任何時候都更受鼓舞，但未來還有很多艱苦的工作，而且不會一蹴而就。我的意思是沒有靈丹妙藥。但我也為曼聯處於領先地位感到自豪，我們與包括 DOT 在內的所有人合作，任何有興趣做正確的事情並以真正的方式解決這個問題的人。我們很高興與之合作。

Just a quick follow-up. What is the cost of all this, especially if governments, not just the United States, but governments globally start imposing mandates to ship to alternative fuels that they cost a lot more to develop in use?

只是快速跟進。所有這一切的成本是多少，特別是如果各國政府，不僅僅是美國，而是全球各國政府開始強制要求使用開發成本高得多的替代燃料？

Well, I think what we need to do is drive the cost down. And so the -- for SAF, for example, what I like to think about is wind and solar energy, which because I've been a climate change geek for 30 years, I followed it, but it was 20 years ago, certainly 30 years -- 20 years ago, everyone, everything you read or talked about wind and solar was, it could never compete with fossil fuels, it could never be economic. Well, guess what? We passed legislation that had credit a caret instead of just a stick caret, that caret drove massive investment in R&D, it filled economies of scale.

嗯，我認為我們需要做的是降低成本。因此 - 例如，對於 SAF，我喜歡考慮的是風能和太陽能，因為我已經成為氣候變化極客 30 年了，所以我一直關注它，但那是 20 年前，當然是 30 年前年 - 20 年前，每個人，你讀到或談論的所有關於風能和太陽能的東西都是，它永遠無法與化石燃料競爭，它永遠不可能經濟。好吧，你猜怎麼著？我們通過了一項立法，將信用記入一個插入符號，而不僅僅是一個大棒插入符號，該插入符號推動了對研發的大量投資，它填補了規模經濟。

And today, it's cheaper to produce a megawatt of electricity from wind and solar than it is from fossil fuels. And the same thing can and I believe will happen with South. It is more expensive today. But we are in the very early phase of the development curve. And that's what's great about the Inflation Reduction Act is it creates those same kind of financial incentives that existed for wind and solar.

而今天，用風能和太陽能生產 1 兆瓦的電力比用化石燃料生產更便宜。同樣的事情可以而且我相信會發生在南方。今天更貴了。但我們正處於發展曲線的早期階段。這就是《降低通貨膨脹法案》的偉大之處在於它創造了與風能和太陽能相同的財政激勵措施。

And that is -- we know it because we're involved with the companies. It's driving investment into the space. And that's what's needed right now at this phase, and that investment is going to lead to breakthrough, it is going to lead to economies of scale. And I think the costs are going to come down.

那就是——我們知道這一點，因為我們參與了這些公司。它正在推動對該領域的投資。這就是現階段所需要的，投資將帶來突破，將帶來規模經濟。而且我認為成本會下降。

Our last question is from Bill Murphy from Inc.com.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Inc.com 的 Bill Murphy。

I have 2 quick questions. The first, I believe if I understood Scott previously, you mentioned an unprecedented number of new pilots actually coming to United from other airlines. And I understand, of course, hiring especially, but not limited to pilots as a big industry constraint, a big effort. So -- but I'm wondering, can you say anything more about that? Is this an effort specifically involved here now to recruit away from competitors in a way that you haven't in the past? And if so, how do you go about doing that practically from -- besides simply positioning the airline is a good place to work? And I would have a follow-up.

我有 2 個快速問題。首先，我相信如果我以前了解斯科特的話，你提到了空前數量的新飛行員實際上是從其他航空公司來到美聯航的。我當然理解，特別是但不限於飛行員的招聘是一個很大的行業限制，需要付出很大的努力。所以——但我想知道，你能再說些什麼嗎？這是現在專門參與的一項努力，以一種您過去從未有過的方式從競爭對手那裡招募人才嗎？如果是這樣，除了簡單地將航空公司定位為工作的好地方之外，您如何實際地做到這一點？我會跟進。

It's really the latter. It's not a targeted airline to go after, but people pay attention and United is the best place to work and if you're a pilot you want to work at the best place. A lot of them are just putting their applications in. We don't need to do anything more than be the biggest and the best airline in the history of aviation, and that's enough of a sell point.

真的是後者。這不是一家有針對性的航空公司，但人們會注意，聯合航空是最好的工作場所，如果你是一名飛行員，你想在最好的地方工作。他們中的很多人只是在提交他們的申請。我們不需要做任何事情，只要成為航空史上最大和最好的航空公司，這就足以成為一個賣點。

Okay. So no specific numbers to report on that you've had an uptick in that?

好的。所以沒有具體的數字來報告你在這方面有所上升嗎？

Well, I don't know what the numbers are. I might give an anecdote, I asked people and I would guess that 30% of the people in those classes come from one of the large airlines. That's just my eyeballing it in the room, but somebody at United probably knows the numbers, but I don't know the specific numbers. I'm just proud of everything the team is doing.

好吧，我不知道數字是多少。我可能會舉個軼事，我問過人們，我猜這些班級中有 30% 的人來自大型航空公司之一。那隻是我在房間裡的目測，但曼聯可能有人知道這些數字，但我不知道具體數字。我為團隊所做的一切感到自豪。

And if I can -- just my other follow-up here. In previous calls and interviews, you've talked about kind of changing customer demographics, including things like the rise of work from anywhere of leisure passengers. I'm just wondering if you have anything more to add to that now in terms of how you see that changing structurally in the post-pandemic world.

如果可以的話——只是我在這裡的其他後續行動。在之前的電話和採訪中，您談到了客戶人口結構的變化，包括休閒旅客在任何地方工作的興起。我只是想知道，就您如何看待大流行後世界的結構性變化而言，您現在是否還有什麼要補充的。

It's a really interesting trend, and we saw it again over the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. For example, for Thanksgiving, we saw a lot of people leave dramatically earlier for their vacation than they would normally do. And this year, Saturday, because we left early, Saturday was actually one of our biggest return days, didn't display Sunday, which is obviously always the biggest.

這是一個非常有趣的趨勢，我們在感恩節和聖誕節假期再次看到了它。例如，在感恩節，我們看到很多人比平時更早離開去度假。而今年的星期六，因為我們走的早，星期六其實是我們最大的返程日之一，沒有顯示星期天，顯然總是最大的。

So a completely different pattern. And we saw that throughout the entire second half of last year, and it's really exciting for our business because it allows us to de-peak things ultimately, run the airline differently and more efficiently. And remote work, while I'm sure, will evolve and adjust overtime, which is driving this. Remote work does seem like a permanent feature in our workplace here in the country. And so we're optimistic that this continues to be the trend based on everything we've seen. And it really is just -- it's a different type of demand. It's a different industry, and I think we're well prepared for it. And it's very exciting from a capacity and revenue management and customer point of view across the board.

所以一個完全不同的模式。我們在去年整個下半年都看到了這一點，這對我們的業務來說真的很令人興奮，因為它讓我們最終能夠降低高峰，以不同的方式更有效地運營航空公司。而遠程工作，雖然我敢肯定，會發展和調整加班時間，這是推動這一點的原因。遠程工作似乎確實是我們在該國工作場所的永久特徵。因此，根據我們所看到的一切，我們樂觀地認為這將繼續成為趨勢。它真的只是 - 這是一種不同類型的需求。這是一個不同的行業，我認為我們已經做好了充分的準備。從全面的容量和收入管理以及客戶的角度來看，這是非常令人興奮的。

I will now turn the call back over to Kristina Munoz for closing remarks.

我現在將把電話轉回給 Kristina Munoz 作結束語。

Thanks, Candice, and thanks to everyone for joining the call today. Please contact Investor or Media Relations if you have any further questions, and we look forward to talking to you next quarter.

謝謝 Candice，也感謝大家今天加入電話會議。如果您有任何其他問題，請聯繫投資者或媒體關係部，我們期待下個季度與您交談。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。