達信公司 (TXT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2022 Textron Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加德事隆 2022 年第四季財報發布電話會議。 （操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Vice President, Investor Relations, Mr. Eric Salander. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給主持人、投資者關係副總裁 Eric Salander 先生。請繼續。

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release.

謝謝，格雷格，大家早安。在我們開始之前，我想提一下，我們將在今天的電話會議中討論未來的估計和預期。這些前瞻性陳述受到我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件以及今天的新聞稿中詳細說明的各種風險因素的影響。

On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO; and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

今天參加電話會議的有德事隆董事長兼執行長 Scott Donnelly；以及我們的財務長弗蘭克·康納（Frank Connor）。我們的收益電話會議簡報可在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Revenues in the quarter were $3.6 billion, up from $3.3 billion in last year's fourth quarter. Segment profit in the quarter was $317 million, up $7 million from the fourth quarter of '21.

本季營收為 36 億美元，高於去年第四季的 33 億美元。本季分部利潤為 3.17 億美元，較 21 年第四季增加 700 萬美元。

During this year's fourth quarter, we reported income from continuing operations of $1.07 per share. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $368 million in the quarter, up $70 million from last year's fourth quarter.

今年第四季度，我們報告的持續經營利潤為每股 1.07 美元。本季退休金繳款前的製造業現金流總計 3.68 億美元，較去年第四季增加 7,000 萬美元。

For the full year, revenues were $12.9 billion, up $487 million from last year. In 2022, segment profit was $1.2 billion, up $89 million from 2021. Income from continuing operations was $4.01 per share compared to $3.30 in 2021. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $1.2 billion, up $29 million from 2021.

全年營收為 129 億美元，較去年同期成長 4.87 億美元。 2022 年，分部利潤為 12 億美元，比 2021 年增加 8,900 萬美元。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給史考特。

Thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Our business closed out the year with another strong quarter.

謝謝，埃里克，大家早安。我們的業務以另一個強勁的季度結束了這一財年。

In the quarter, aviation grew revenue and segment profit, reflecting higher aircraft deliveries, increased aftermarket volume and strong pricing net of inflation as compared to last year's fourth quarter. Also in the quarter, we continue to see solid order flow, customer demand across our aircraft product portfolio, ending the year with $6.4 billion of backlog.

本季度，航空業務收入和分部利潤均實現成長，反映出與去年第四季相比，飛機交付量增加、售後市場銷量增加以及扣除通膨因素後的強勁定價。此外，在本季度，我們繼續看到飛機產品組合的訂單流和客戶需求穩定，年底的積壓訂單金額為 64 億美元。

For the year, we delivered 178 jets, up from 167 last year, and 146 commercial turboprops, up from 125 in 2021. Textron Aviation Defense delivered 10 T-6 aircraft for the year, up from 5 a year ago. Throughout 2022, strong aircraft utilization within the Textron Aviation product portfolio resulted in a 16% growth in aftermarket revenues.

今年，我們交付了 178 架噴射機，高於去年的 167 架，交付了 146 架商用渦輪螺旋槳飛機，高於 2021 年的 125 架。在整個 2022 年，德事隆航空產品組合中飛機的強勁利用率推動售後市場收入成長 16%。

At Bell, as expected, revenues were down slightly in the quarter on lower military revenue, reflecting the continued wind down of the H-1 program, partially offset by higher commercial revenues.

正如預期，貝爾本季度的收入由於軍事收入的下降而略有下降，這反映了 H-1 計劃的持續縮減，但商業收入的增加部分抵消了這一影響。

In December, U.S. Army announced that Bell's V-280 Valor was selected as the winner of the Future Long Range Assault Aircraft program competition. This award is a testament to the hard work of the Bell team, the design built through the V-280 prototype over the last 10 years in support of this win.

12 月，美國陸軍宣布貝爾公司的 V-280 Valor 被選為未來遠程突擊飛機項目競賽的獲勝者。該獎項證明了貝爾團隊的辛勤工作，他們在過去 10 年中透過 V-280 原型機的設計為這次勝利提供了支持。

Initial for our contract award of up to $1.3 billion over the first 19 months with an initial funding of $232 million for engineering and manufacturing development related activity is currently on hold pending the outcome of a protest that was filed at year-end by the competing vendor. On the commercial side of Bell, we delivered 179 helicopters in 2022, up from 156 in 2021.

我們最初授予的合約金額高達 13 億美元，將在前 19 個月內發放，其中工程和製造開發相關活動的初始資金為 2.32 億美元，目前該合約處於擱置狀態，等待競爭供應商在年底提出的抗議的結果。在貝爾的商業方面，我們在 2022 年交付了 179 架直升機，高於 2021 年的 156 架。

Moving to Textron Systems. Revenues were essentially flat with last year's fourth quarter. During the fourth quarter, Systems awarded another anti-vehicle munition contract from the U.S. Army. The award is valued at $162 million over a 5-year period of performance.

轉向德事隆系統。營收與去年第四季基本持平。第四季度，系統公司又與美國陸軍簽訂了另一份反車輛彈藥合約。該獎項的執行期限為 5 年，價值為 1.62 億美元。

In December, Systems announced the delivery of the Cottonmouth to the U.S. Marine Corps for testing through 2023. This vehicle was purpose-built for the Marine's Advanced Reconnaissance Vehicle program. Also in the quarter, Systems delivered the sixth Ship-to-Shore Connector to the U.S. Navy after successful completion of acceptance trials.

12 月，系統公司宣布將 Cottonmouth 交付給美國海軍陸戰隊進行測試，測試將持續到 2023 年。本季度，系統公司在成功完成驗收試驗後向美國海軍交付了第六個船岸連接器。

Moving to Industrial. We saw higher revenue in the quarter, driven by higher volume at both Kautex and specialized vehicles and favorable pricing, principally, specialized vehicles.

轉向工業。由於考特斯和專用車輛銷售的成長以及優惠的定價（主要是專用車輛），本季我們的收入有所增加。

Moving to Aviation. We delivered 6 Bell selector aircraft in the fourth quarter, including the first unit into Canada. For the year, Pipistrel delivered 61 aircraft following the completion of the acquisition in April 2022.

轉向航空業。我們在第四季度交付了 6 架貝爾選擇飛機，其中第一架交付給加拿大。自 2022 年 4 月完成收購以來，Pipistrel 今年已交付 61 架飛機。

In summary, we saw strong demand across our commercial product lines and the teams executed well, despite supply chain and labor constraints. At Aviation, the team executed very well with a full year segment profit margin of 11.5%. It was above the high end of our original guidance range.

總而言之，儘管供應鏈和勞動力受到限制，但我們看到商業產品線的需求強勁，團隊表現良好。在航空領域，團隊表現非常出色，全年分部利潤率為 11.5%。它高於我們最初指導範圍的高端。

Aviation's backlog grew 55% to $6.4 billion at year-end, on strong order activity and customer demand. On the new product front, we received FAA certification for the Cessna SkyCourier and delivered 6 units to our launch customer, FedEx, during 2022.

由於訂單活動強勁和客戶需求旺盛，航空業積壓訂單年底成長了 55%，達到 64 億美元。在新產品方面，我們獲得了 Cessna SkyCourier 的 FAA 認證，並於 2022 年向我們的首發客戶 FedEx 交付了 6 架飛機。

The Textron Aviation Defense, the light attack AT-6 Wolverine achieved Military Type Certification from the U.S. Air Force, enabling the first international sale of 8 aircraft.

德事隆航空防禦公司輕型攻擊機 AT-6 Wolverine 獲得美國空軍的軍用型號認證，實現了首次 8 架飛機的國際銷售。

At Bell, the December 2022 FLRAA contract, award has solidified the long-term outlook for the segment and should provide an increasing revenue stream that we expect will drive growth well into the future.

對於貝爾來說，2022 年 12 月的 FLRAA 合約授予鞏固了該部門的長期前景，並將帶來不斷增長的收入來源，我們預計這將推動未來的成長。

On FLRAA, the 360 Invictus is nearly complete, and we expect first flight 2023, pending delivery of the ITEP engine. At Textron Systems, we advanced our weapons programs with the award of our anti-vehicle munition programs, continued work on the robotic combat vehicle and armored reconnaissance vehicle development programs.

在 FLRAA 上，360 Invictus 已接近完工，我們預計 2023 年首次飛行，等待 ITEP 引擎的交付。在德事隆系統公司，我們透過獲得反車輛彈藥項目合約來推進了我們的武器計劃，並繼續開展機器人戰車和裝甲偵察車開發計劃。

Systems also obtained Airworthiness Certification for 4 additional F1s at ATAC, bringing the total operational F1 fleet to 23 aircraft in support of increased demand across U.S. military tactical air programs.

系統公司還獲得了 ATAC 另外 4 架 F1 的適航認證，使 F1 機隊總數達到 23 架，以滿足美國軍事戰術空中計畫日益增長的需求。

At Textron Specialized Vehicles, the company continued its leadership in the development and production of zero emission gulf vehicles, turfmaintenance equipment and ground support equipment markets.

在德事隆專用車輛部，該公司繼續在零排放海灣車輛、草坪維護設備和地面支援設備市場的開發和生產方面保持領導地位。

At Kautex in 2022, we were awarded contracts on 14 hybrid electric vehicle programs for our fuel systems. At aviation, the Pipistrel Velis Electro continue to receive certifications from around the world, has now certified in more than 30 countries.

2022 年，考特斯的燃油系統贏得了 14 個混合動力電動車計畫的合約。在航空領域，Pipistrel Velis Electro 持續獲得來自世界各地的認證，目前已在 30 多個國家獲得認證。

Looking to 2023. At aviation, we are projecting growth driven by increased deliveries across all product lines and higher aftermarket volume. At Bell, we're projecting revenue growth in 2023 on higher military revenues from the FLRAA program and higher commercial revenues. At Systems, we're expecting mid-single-digit revenue growth across our businesses. At Industrial, we're expecting revenue growth at specialized vehicles and Kautex.

展望2023年。在貝爾，我們預計 2023 年的營收將隨著 FLRAA 計畫帶來的軍事收入增加和商業收入增加而成長。在系統方面，我們預計所有業務的收入將實現中等個位數成長。在工業方面，我們預計專用車輛和考特斯的收入將會成長。

At Aviation, we plan to continue investments in development of technologies and products supporting sustainable flight solutions for unmanned cargo, next-generation electric trainers, eVTOL's and general aviation.

在航空領域，我們計劃繼續投資開發支援無人貨運、新一代電動教練機、eVTOL 和通用航空永續飛行解決方案的技術和產品。

With this overall backdrop, we're projecting revenues of about $14 billion for Textron's 2023 financial guidance, projecting adjusted EPS in the range of $5 to $5.20. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions is expected to be in the range of $900 million to $1 billion.

基於這一總體背景，我們預計德事隆 2023 年財務指引收入約為 140 億美元，調整後每股收益預計在 5 美元至 5.20 美元之間。預計退休金繳款前的製造業現金流將在 9 億至 10 億美元之間。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation.

謝謝，斯科特，大家早安。讓我們回顧一下各部門的貢獻，從德事隆航空開始。

Revenues at Textron Aviation of $1.6 billion, were up $223 million from a year ago, reflecting higher jet and defense volume and higher pricing. Segment profit was $169 million in the fourth quarter, up $32 million from last year's fourth quarter due to favorable pricing, net of inflation of $29 million and higher volume and mix, partially offset by an unfavorable impact from performance.

德事隆航空的營收為 16 億美元，比去年同期增加了 2.23 億美元，這反映了噴射機和國防產量的增加以及價格的上漲。第四季分部利潤為 1.69 億美元，較去年同期成長 3,200 萬美元，主要由於優惠的定價、扣除 2,900 萬美元的通貨膨脹率以及更高的銷量和產品組合，但部分被業績帶來的不利影響所抵消。

Performance includes unfavorable manufacturing performance largely related to inefficiencies from supply chain disruptions and increased staffing associated with higher production, partially offset by lower selling and administrative costs. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $6.4 billion.

業績包括不利的製造業績，這在很大程度上與供應鏈中斷導致的效率低下以及伴隨產量增加的人員增加有關，但銷售和管理成本的降低部分抵消了這一影響。本季末該部門的積壓訂單金額為 64 億美元。

Moving to Bell. Revenues were $816 million, down $42 million from last year, reflecting lower military revenues, partially offset by higher commercial revenues. Segment profit was $71 million -- of $71 million was down $17 million from a year ago, primarily reflecting lower military volume and mix, partially offset by a favorable impact from performance. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $4.8 billion.

移至貝爾。收入為 8.16 億美元，比去年減少 4,200 萬美元，反映出軍事收入的減少，但商業收入的增加部分抵消了這一減少。分部利潤為 7,100 萬美元——比去年同期的 7,100 萬美元下降了 1,700 萬美元，主要反映了軍用產品數量和結構下降，但業績的有利影響部分抵消了這一影響。本季末該部門的積壓訂單金額為 48 億美元。

At Textron Systems, revenues were $314 million, up $1 million from last year's fourth quarter. Segment profit of $40 million was down $5 million from a year ago. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $2.1 billion.

德事隆系統公司的營收為 3.14 億美元，比去年第四季增加了 100 萬美元。分部利潤為 4,000 萬美元，較去年同期下降 500 萬美元。本季末該部門的積壓訂單金額為 21 億美元。

Industrial revenues were $907 million, up $126 million from last year, reflecting higher in volume and mix of $95 million, and a $59 million favorable impact from pricing largely at specialized vehicles product line, partially offset by an unfavorable impact of $28 million from foreign exchange rate fluctuations.

工業收入為 9.07 億美元，比去年增加 1.26 億美元，反映了 9,500 萬美元的銷售和產品組合增長，以及主要來自專用車輛產品線定價的 5,900 萬美元的有利影響，但外匯匯率波動帶來的 2,800 萬美元的不利影響部分抵消了這一影響。

Segment profit of $42 million was up $4 million from the fourth quarter of 2021, primarily due to higher volume and mix, partially offset by an unfavorable impact from performance.

分部利潤為 4,200 萬美元，較 2021 年第四季增加 400 萬美元，主要由於銷售和產品組合增加，但業績的不利影響部分抵消了這一影響。

Textron eAviation segment revenues were $6 million and segment loss was $10 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, which reflected the operating results of Pipistrel along with research and development costs for initiatives related to the development of sustainable aviation solutions. Finance segment revenues were $11 million, and profit was $5 million.

2022 年第四季度，德事隆電子航空部門收入為 600 萬美元，部門虧損為 1000 萬美元，這反映了 Pipistrel 的經營業績以及與開發可持續航空解決方案相關的舉措的研究和開發成本。金融部門收入為1100萬美元，利潤為500萬美元。

Moving below segment profit, corporate expenses were $43 million in the fourth quarter. Interest expense, net for the manufacturing group was $17 million. Our manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $368 million in the quarter.

第四季企業支出為 4,300 萬美元，低於分部利潤。製造集團淨利息支出為1700萬美元。本季，我們在退休金繳款前的製造業現金流為 3.68 億美元。

For the year, manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $1.2 billion, up $29 million from the prior year, despite higher cash tax payments of $284 million in 2022 related to the R&D tax law change.

全年而言，儘管因研發稅法變化導致 2022 年現金稅款增加 2.84 億美元，但退休金繳款前的製造業現金流總計 12 億美元，比上年增加 2,900 萬美元。

In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 3.3 million shares, returning $228 million in cash to shareholders. For the full year, we repurchased approximately 13.1 million shares, returning $867 million in cash to shareholders.

本季度，我們回購了約 330 萬股，向股東返還了 2.28 億美元現金。全年我們回購了約 1,310 萬股，向股東返還了 8.67 億美元現金。

Beginning in the first quarter of 2023, we'll change how we measure our segment results. Going forward, we will exclude from segment profit, the LIFO inventory provision, intangible asset amortization, and the nonservice component of pension and postretirement income or expense. These items will be separately reported on the income statement below segment profit.

從 2023 年第一季開始，我們將改變衡量分部績效的方式。展望未來，我們將從分部利潤中排除後進先出法存貨撥備、無形資產攤銷以及退休金和退休後收入或支出的非服務部分。這些項目將在損益表中分部利潤下單獨報告。

We believe these changes will provide a more consistent method of measuring and evaluating business performance across our segments, while also aligning our reporting results more consistently with other companies within our industry.

我們相信，這些變化將提供一種更一致的方法來衡量和評估我們各部門的業務績效，同時也使我們的報告結果與行業內其他公司更加一致。

On Slides' 15 and 16 in the investor presentation posted to our website, you will find prior year results, reflecting the recast of segment profit.

在我們網站上發布的投資者簡報的第 15 張和 16 張投影片中，您可以找到去年的業績，反映了分部利潤的重塑。

Also effective with the first quarter of 2023 results, we will report earnings per share on an adjusted basis that excludes the LIFO inventory provision and intangible asset amortization, both noncash items.

從 2023 年第一季業績開始，我們將以調整後的基礎報告每股收益，其中不包括後進先出法 (LIFO) 存貨撥備和無形資產攤銷（這兩項均為非現金項目）。

Turning now to our 2023 outlook on Slide 9. We're expecting adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $5 to $5.20 per share. We're also expecting manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions to be about $900 million to $1 billion.

現在來看看第 9 頁的 2023 年展望。我們也預期退休金繳款前的製造業現金流約為 9 億至 10 億美元。

Moving to segment outlook on Slide 11 and beginning with Textron Aviation. We're expecting revenues of about $5.7 billion. Segment margin is expected to be in a range of approximately 12% to 13%. Looking to Bell, we expect revenues of about $3.3 billion.

轉到第 11 張投影片上的分部展望，從德事隆航空開始。我們預計收入約為 57 億美元。預計分部利潤率約12%至13%。就貝爾而言，我們預計其收入約為 33 億美元。

We're forecasting a margin in a range of 8.25% to 9.25%. At systems, we're estimating revenues of about $1.25 billion with a margin in a range of about 10.75% to 11.75%. At Industrial, we're expecting segment revenues of about $3.6 billion and margin to be in the range of about 5% to 6%.

我們預測利潤率在 8.25% 至 9.25% 之間。在系統方面，我們估計收入約為 12.5 億美元，利潤率約為 10.75% 至 11.75%。在工業方面，我們預計分部收入約為 36 億美元，利潤率約為 5% 至 6%。

At eAviation, we expect revenues of $45 million and a segment loss of $65 million, largely reflecting our continued investments in sustainable aviation solutions. Lastly, at finance, we're forecasting a profit of about $15 million.

在 eAviation，我們預計收入為 4,500 萬美元，分部虧損為 6,500 萬美元，這主要反映了我們對永續航空解決方案的持續投資。最後，在財務方面，我們預測利潤約為 1500 萬美元。

Looking at Slide 12, we're projecting about $150 million of corporate expense. We're also projecting about $90 million of net interest expense, $130 million of LIFO inventory provision, $35 million of intangible asset amortization, and $235 million of nonservice pension income. We expect a full year effective tax rate of approximately 17.5%.

從投影片 12 來看，我們預計公司支出約為 1.5 億美元。我們也預期淨利息支出約 9,000 萬美元，後進先出法存貨撥備約 1.3 億美元，無形資產攤銷約 3,500 萬美元，非服務性退休金收入約 2.35 億美元。我們預計全年有效稅率約為17.5%。

Turning to Slide 13. R&D is expected to be about $585 million, down from $601 million last year. We're estimating CapEx will be about $425 million, up from $354 million in 2022. Our outlook assumes an average share count of about 205 million shares in 2023.

轉到投影片 13。我們估計資本支出將達到約 4.25 億美元，高於 2022 年的 3.54 億美元。

That concludes our prepared remarks. So Greg, you can open the line for questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。那麼格雷格，你可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

（操作員指示）您的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

You've definitely had a busy quarter between FLRAA. So congratulations on that. And I think you threw in an Aerojet bid and (inaudible) as well.

您在 FLRAA 期間肯定度過了一個忙碌的季度。對此我表示祝賀。我覺得你也參與了 Aerojet 的競標，而且（聽不清楚）。

So I wanted to focus on aviation margins. In Q4, I think you ended at 10.7%, potentially lower, including the recasting for LIFO. How do we think about the walk to the 12.5% margins in 2023?

所以我想重點關注航空利潤。我認為第四季的利潤率為 10.7%，可能更低，其中包括後進先出法的重新調整。我們如何看待 2023 年實現 12.5% 的利潤率？

Well, I think, Sheila. So first of all, the quarter, we knew that we were going to have some headwind with supply chain. And obviously, we brought a lot of new people onboard, which is a good thing, but had a lot of impacts just getting all those folks on and training and those kinds of interruptions. So in the quarter, we did take a lot of those unusual impacts right to expense in the quarter rather than putting it into in inventory. So we did take a hit on that.

嗯，我認為，希拉。首先，我們知道本季我們將在供應鏈方面遇到一些阻力。顯然，我們招募了許多新人，這是件好事，但讓這些人加入並接受培訓以及諸如此類的干擾也帶來了很多影響。因此，在本季度，我們確實將許多異常影響計入費用，而不是放入庫存中。因此我們確實受到了打擊。

LIFO was still in there, obviously, in that reported number. So obviously, on a recast basis going forward, that will be there. But -- so I think when we think about what happens as we go into 2023, obviously, you're going to not have the LIFO in there. And I think we're going to see -- again, we're guiding probably almost $0.5 billion of higher revenue, and that converts at good margins. So I think, we're pretty bullish on our ability to drive higher margins as we go through 2023.

顯然，在報告的數字中，後進先出法仍然存在。因此顯然，在未來的重塑基礎上，這一點仍將存在。但是 — — 所以我認為，當我們思考進入 2023 年時會發生什麼時，顯然你不會在那裡使用後進先出法。我認為我們會看到 - 我們預計收入可能會增加近 5 億美元，而且利潤率也不錯。因此我認為，我們對在 2023 年實現更高利潤的能力非常有信心。

And maybe just as a follow-up to that longer term, like, how do you think about peak trough margins in aviation? Is it just steady as it goes from here? Can it just be a 20% incremental margin business?

也許只是作為對長期問題的後續關注，例如，您如何看待航空業的峰谷利潤率？從這裡開始它會一直穩定嗎？難道它只是一個20%的增量利潤業務嗎？

Well, as you know, Sheila, based on analyst pressures, we've been striving to get above 10% margins in the aviation business. So -- and we feel pretty good about that.

嗯，希拉，正如你所知，基於分析師的壓力，我們一直在努力使航空業務的利潤率達到 10% 以上。所以——我們對此感覺非常好。

So look, I think it's going to be very much volume driven. You guys know we tend to convert somewhere in that 20%, 25% range. I expect we can continue that as we go forward. Certainly, we're guiding that in our conversion for 2023. And as we go beyond that, we'll just have to see where the market is.

所以，我認為這將很大程度上受數量驅動。你們知道我們傾向於在 20% 到 25% 的範圍內進行轉換。我希望我們能在未來繼續保持這種狀態。當然，我們會在 2023 年的轉型中引導這一點。

The good news is demand has remained strong. The fourth quarter demand remained strong, and with good bookings in Q4. So environment, I think we feel pretty good about. But in terms of what margins do on a go-forward basis, I think we would kind of remain in that neighborhood of expecting sort of a 20%, 25% conversion on our revenue growth.

好消息是需求依然強勁。第四季的需求依然強勁，訂單量良好。所以我認為我們對環境感覺很好。但就未來利潤率而言，我認為我們預計收入成長率仍將在 20% 到 25% 左右。

Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss from Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的戴維史特勞斯 (David Strauss)。

Scott, could you just talk through the forecasted Bell, so up revenue, down margins, decent amount. You mentioned it includes FLRAA. So what exactly is your assumption for FLRAA? Does that assume you win it post the protest? Just if you could help there.

史考特，您能否談談貝爾的預測，即收入增加、利潤率下降，數量相當可觀。您提到它包括 FLRAA。那麼您對 FLRAA 的假設到底是什麼？這是否意味著你在抗議後贏得了勝利？如果你能幫忙就好了。

Sure, David, it does. So the protest period ends at the first week of April. So we've baked that into our estimates, assuming that will be resolved by that period of time.

當然，大衛，確實如此。因此抗議期將於四月第一週結束。因此，我們將其納入了我們的估算中，假設該問題將在那段時間內解決。

Obviously, the dynamics in terms of margin is that we will continue to see a decline on the military revenue side. There'll be some offset on the commercial revenue side. We've had a good year in terms of bookings and expect to see nice growth on the commercial side.

顯然，從利潤率來看，我們將繼續看到軍事收入的下降。商業收入方面會有一些抵消。今年我們的預訂量表現不錯，預計商業方面也會有良好的成長。

And then obviously, we'll have 3/4 of the FLRAA program coming in, which is good, but that is a lower margin business. I mean EMD programs tend to be lower margin, and that's what we've forecast in our guide for you for '23.

顯然，我們將有 3/4 的 FLRAA 計劃投入使用，這是好事，但這是利潤較低的業務。我的意思是 EMD 專案的利潤率往往較低，這就是我們在 23 年指南中為您提供的預測。

Can you -- Scott, can you say specifically how much revenue is in there for FLRAA? And how would we expect to ramp beyond 2023 in terms of revenue?

你能——斯科特，你能具體說一下 FLRAA 的收入是多少嗎？我們預計 2023 年後營收將如何成長？

No, we're not going to break out the specifics of the individual programs, but I think clearly, it will ramp as we go into '24, '25 and obviously, I think probably for quite some time. I mean, I think this program will be a terrific boom for the business. It's going to start out, obviously, with a lot of the CMD, which as we said, is great volume and good revenue, but not a whole lot of margin.

不，我們不會詳細討論各個項目的具體內容，但我認為，隨著我們進入24年、25年，很明顯，我認為可能會持續相當長的一段時間，這個數字將會上升。我的意思是，我認為這個專案將為企業帶來巨大的繁榮。顯然，一開始它會有大量的 CMD，正如我們所說，它具有很大的數量和良好的收入，但利潤率並不高。

And then obviously, we'll expect to see it continue to grow and turn into better margins as you get into production programs and foreign military sales and all the things that we would expect will come along with a successful FLRAA program.

然後顯然，隨著進入生產計劃和對外軍售以及我們所期望的所有事情隨著 FLRAA 計劃的成功而出現，我們預計它將繼續增長並轉化為更好的利潤率。

Okay. And last one on the aero supply chain. Could you just update us there? And your deliveries, I think, came in a fair amount lighter for the full year than we were originally anticipating at the beginning of the year. So how many additional deliveries could you have done this year, if you didn't have supply chain bottlenecks?

好的。最後一個是關於航空供應鏈。能向我們更新一下最新情況嗎？我認為，全年的交付量比我們年初預期的要少得多。那麼，如果沒有供應鏈瓶頸，今年您可以額外完成多少次交貨？

Well, I don't know if we'll go into express numbers, David. But look, we've been kind of forecasting here since the mid part of the year that we expected we would end up a few hundred million dollars light versus our initial guide based on the fact that we continue to see supply chain challenges and some labor issues.

嗯，我不知道我們是否要討論快遞數字，大衛。但是，從今年年中開始我們就一直在預測，由於我們繼續看到供應鏈挑戰和一些勞動力問題，我們預計最終的虧損將比我們最初的預期高出幾億美元。

I think labor has certainly improved through the balance of the year, although a lot of that is new folks and training and it has an efficiency impact, but at least we're making some progress on that front.

我認為勞動力在今年餘下時間肯定有所改善，儘管其中許多是新員工和培訓，並且對效率產生了影響，但至少我們在這方面取得了一些進展。

I think we've had a number of suppliers that were challenged or getting better, but you always have a couple out there that are still struggling. So that was a -- we kind of anticipated that in the back half of the year. That's why we kind of try to provide some color that we expected this to be a few hundred million off of our guide.

我認為我們有許多供應商面臨挑戰或正在好轉，但總有少數供應商仍在苦苦掙扎。所以那是—我們預計在今年下半年會發生這種情況。這就是為什麼我們試圖提供一些信息，我們預計這個數字將比我們的指導數字高出幾億美元。

But I think that we've taken that into consideration. So as we think about next year's guide for '23, it's -- there are still going to be supply chain challenges all along the way, but we're -- we think we've taken that into proper consideration in terms of the '23 guide.

但我認為我們已經考慮到了這一點。因此，當我們考慮明年的 23 年指南時，我們會發現整個過程中仍會存在供應鏈挑戰，但我們認為我們已經在 23 年指南中適當地考慮到了這一點。

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard from Vertical Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

I'll start with Frank. I was wondering, if you could give us some sort of walk on the manufacturing cash flow and why you expect it to modestly decline in 2023?

我先從弗蘭克開始。我想知道，您能否向我們介紹一下製造業現金流的情況，以及為什麼您預計它會在 2023 年小幅下降？

Yes. It's just -- it's a reflection of an expectation that we'll continue to see good performance from the -- from a working capital standpoint, but we do have the continuation of higher cash taxes associated with the R&D tax credit change. And also, we're just expecting a lower -- slightly lower V in - and deposit activity from commercial volume.

是的。這只是 - 這反映了我們對營運資本角度將繼續看到良好表現的預期，但隨著研發稅收抵免變化，我們確實會繼續面臨更高的現金稅。此外，我們預計商業交易量的 V 和存款活動會略有下降。

So we're kind of framing it in terms of kind of 1:1 book-to-bill type expectation as it relates to deposit activity, and that kind of has a little bit of a headwind on cash relative to where we have been.

因此，我們將其定義為與存款活動相關的 1：1 訂單出貨比類型的預期，相對於我們先前的狀況，這對現金造成了一些阻力。

Okay. And then maybe one for Scott. Also, been a lot of commentary around about in the business jet industry about some of the lead indicators starting to slow. Have you seen any impact of, say, activity leveling off of used inventory increasing having any impact on order activity for you?

好的。然後也許還有一個給斯科特。此外，關於商務噴射機行業的一些領先指標開始放緩的評論也很多。您是否發現活動趨於平穩、二手庫存增加對您的訂單活動有任何影響？

No, we haven't seen that, Robert. I mean, I think our order rate in the fourth quarter was consistent with the third quarter. It remains quite healthy. I think when people look at some of these leading indicators, like it's hard to keep track of what -- when you see a little bit of an increase in used available for sale, what kind of aircraft are those? What are their vintages?

不，我們沒有看到，羅伯特。我的意思是，我認為我們第四季的訂單率與第三季一致。它仍然非常健康。我認為，當人們看到這些領先指標時，很難追蹤什麼——當你看到可供出售的二手飛機數量略有增加時，那些是什麼樣的飛機？他們的葡萄酒年份是什麼時候？

We think, obviously, the market has been very strong. So people are looking to put some aircraft on the market. They're still at very low levels. So we're not seeing that -- the knock-on effect into market for new aircraft. So we haven't seen a material change in the level of activity that's going out there in terms of order activity.

我們認為，顯然市場一直非常強勁。因此人們正在尋求將一些飛機投放到市場。它們仍處於非常低的水平。因此，我們沒有看到新飛機市場產生的連鎖反應。因此，就訂單活動而言，我們尚未看到活動水平發生重大變化。

I mean it's -- there's lots of people ready reports. It's frankly hard to understand. Sometimes there's so many comparisons of flying by region, by size of aircraft compared to '19, compared to last quarter, compared to '22. It's -- but it's in the round. So we haven't seen any of that have a meaningful impact on order activity.

我的意思是──有很多人已經準備好報告了。坦白說，這很難理解。有時會按地區、按飛機大小對航班與 2019 年、上一季或 2022 年進行許多比較。是的 — — 但它是圓形的。因此，我們尚未看到任何因素對訂單活動產生重大影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment from Baird.

您的下一個問題來自貝爾德公司的彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment)。

Scott, just circling back on David's question regarding just the supply chain and maybe just tacking and inflation.

史考特，我再次回到戴維關於供應鏈以及可能只是解決通膨的問題。

So it sounds like -- I mean, (inaudible) expected (inaudible) but it sounds like things are holding in there? Or are they getting a little better? And then just also, just could you maybe talk a little bit how you're passing on in the higher input costs right now?

所以聽起來像 — — 我的意思是，（聽不清楚）預期（聽不清楚）但聽起來事情還在繼續？或者說他們的情況有好轉了嗎？然後，您能否談談現在您是如何轉嫁更高的投入成本的？

Well, look, on the supply chain side, Peter, I think we have some suppliers where we've had challenges, and we clearly see them getting healthy and getting better. But we have other areas where suppliers are still struggling. I mean, I don't want to go into too much detail, but it's very specific components, very specific suppliers.

嗯，彼得，在供應鏈方面，我認為我們的一些供應商遇到了挑戰，但我們清楚地看到他們正在變得越來越健康、越來越好。但其他地區的供應商仍在苦苦掙扎。我的意思是，我不想說得太詳細，但它是非常具體的組件，非常具體的供應商。

Obviously, we're working with them and trying to get them healthy and do a better job in terms of getting parts into the factory. And obviously, from our standpoint, we do lots of out-of-sequence work and swapping parts around. We'd like to stop doing that. It's an efficiency hit to us. Our guys have to work through every day. So it's I think it's about the same, right?

顯然，我們正在與他們合作並努力使他們恢復健康並在將零件運送到工廠方面做得更好。顯然，從我們的角度來看，我們做了很多不按順序的工作並交換了部分內容。我們不想再這樣做了。這對我們的效率是一個打擊。我們的人每天都必須努力工作。所以我認為差不多，對嗎？

As I said, there are some suppliers that are getting better, but then you got one that's just having a hard time catching up. I don't know that we're seeing a lot of new suppliers coming in and say, hey, I got a big problem. We have a couple there we've been struggling all year, and we're trying to get them back on schedule. They're working at it, but they're just not quite there yet. And again, we factored that into how we think 2023 will play out.

正如我所說，有些供應商正在變得更好，但有一個供應商很難趕上。我不知道我們是否看到很多新的供應商進來說，嘿，我有一個大問題。我們那裡有幾家公司，一年來一直處於困境中，我們正努力讓它們回到正軌。他們正在努力，但尚未成功。我們再次將這一點考慮在內，以預測 2023 年的發展。

In terms of the pricing side of things, Peter, we continue to get price, net of inflation. We're very focused on that. As these input costs increase, we have to drive price to get that back. I think the guys are doing a pretty good job of that.

就定價方面而言，彼得，我們繼續獲得扣除通貨膨脹後的價格。我們非常關注這一點。隨著這些投入成本的增加，我們必須提高價格來回收成本。我認為這些人在這方面做得非常好。

And just as a quick follow-up on Systems, I mean, just could you talk a little bit post the Army's bill and defense kind of looking funding pretty robust as we go forward. How are you looking at -- we're showing modest growth for Systems this year, but how do you think longer-term?

作為對系統的快速跟進，我的意思是，您能否稍微談談陸軍的法案和國防資金，看起來在我們前進的過程中資金非常充足。您如何看待－今年我們的系統業務呈現溫和成長，但您如何看待長期成長？

Well, look, I think when we look at the [FADEC] numbers, they seem fine to us. When you look at what came through on the omnibus in terms of this current fiscal year's budget, was in line with our expectations. So I think we're fine.

嗯，看，我認為當我們查看 [FADEC] 數字時，它們對我們來說似乎很好。當你看到本財政年度綜合預算中的內容時，你會發現它符合我們的預期。所以我認為我們很好。

The growth -- the good news at Systems is it's really kind of across almost all the product lines. It's not just one particular thing. Obviously, we've had some new wins in the munition side, which is great. That's put that business back to growth. Sentinel program continues to do well. Our Ship-to-Shore, as I said, we've made deliveries. We'll start negotiating the next production by here shortly, but we'll finish the DD&C this year and start production deliveries.

成長－系統的好消息是它幾乎涵蓋了所有產品線。這不只是某一件事。顯然，我們在彈藥方面取得了一些新的勝利，這很好。這使該業務恢復成長。哨兵計劃繼續表現良好。正如我所說，我們的船到岸運輸已經完成。我們很快就會開始協商下一批產品的生產，但我們將在今年完成 DD&C 並開始生產交付。

The ATAC business has had nice growth. Our electronics business has had a nice growth. It really is kind of across all of the businesses within Systems. And the omnibus budget that was appropriated is consistent with obviously what we're guiding to you guys.

ATAC 業務取得了良好的成長。我們的電子業務取得了良好的成長。它實際上涵蓋了系統內的所有業務。所撥出的綜合預算顯然與我們提供給大家的指引一致。

Your next question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski from Alembic Global.

您的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Pete Skibitski。

Scott, fair to say, I think some of your businesses have a cyclical component to them. And I'm just wondering, I'm sure you guys see, I think the consensus out there for the macro guys is that we'll have some sort of mild recession this year, maybe later this year.

斯科特，公平地說，我認為你們的一些業務具有周期性成分。我只是想知道，我相信你們也明白，我認為宏觀經濟專家的共識是，我們今年或也許在今年晚些時候會出現某種程度的溫和衰退。

So as you guys see that and whether you agree with it or not, is it prudent for you to maybe even kind of slow the top line growth in those type of businesses in maybe like citation, maybe TSV to kind of protect your margins and not over hire? Are you guys thinking about your businesses that way or not necessarily right now?

所以，正如你們所看到的，不管你們是否同意，你們是否應該謹慎地減緩這些類型業務的營收成長，例如引用，也許是 TSV，以保護你們的利潤率，而不是過度僱用？你們現在是不是也這樣考慮自己的生意呢？

We absolutely look at that, Peter. I mean, as I said, there's cyclicality in almost every business, right? So some have more than others. Those that we think are going to be more recession sensitive, we've kind of factored in thinking we'll have a mild recession. I don't think it's going to be dramatic. We're certainly not thinking about something in the scope of back in the 2009, '10 kind of time frame. But I don't think we have an economic situation that's going to lead to something like that.

我們絕對會考慮這一點，彼得。我的意思是，正如我所說的，幾乎每個行業都有週期性，對嗎？因此，有些人比其他人擁有的多。我們認為那些對衰退更敏感的國家，我們已經考慮到我們將會經歷溫和的衰退。我不認為事情會變得太戲劇化。我們當然不會考慮 2009 年或 2010 年那樣的時間範圍內的事情。但我不認為我們的經濟狀況會導致這樣的事情發生。

I'd say, look, I think when you look back at previous modest recessions, the area that has always impacted us the most difficult has been a slowdown in the aviation business. And I think we're in a very different place than we've been in those previous sessions because we have a pretty significant backlog.

我想說，當你回顧以前的輕微經濟衰退時，對我們影響最嚴重的領域一直是航空業務的放緩。我認為我們現在的情況與前幾屆的情況非常不同，因為我們有相當多的積壓工作。

So I think that the nature of that will allow us to -- even if you were to see a slowdown in bookings, which is entirely possible, I would expect it if you really go into a modest recession, you'll see a slowdown in booking, but you've got almost 2 years of backlog sitting there that you'll continue to execute on. And I think that will help you ride through it.

所以我認為，在這種情況下，即使你看到預訂量放緩，這是完全有可能的，我預計，如果你真的陷入溫和的經濟衰退，你會看到預訂量放緩，但你還有近兩年的積壓訂單可以繼續執行。我想這會幫助你度過難關。

And we haven't had that for a bunch of years, Peter, as you know. So I think that it's one that would translate to a slowdown in bookings, but not something that would slow us down in terms of our revenue and margin generation.

彼得，正如你所知，我們已經很多年沒有這種情況了。因此，我認為這會導致預訂量放緩，但不會影響我們的收入和利潤成長。

Okay. That's fair. Just one last one for me. Scott, are you guys any closer to signing that AH-1 deal with Nigeria?

好的。這很公平。對我來說，只剩下最後一個了。史考特，你們距離與尼日利亞簽署 AH-1 協議還有距離嗎？

The -- well, I mean it's in the kind of government contracting process, right? So that ends up being -- because of the FMS nature of that, that would be signed between ourselves and the U.S. government. And as you know, Peter, that can take a little while.

嗯，我的意思是這是一種政府承包流程，對吧？因此最終結果是——由於 FMS 的性質，它將由我們和美國政府簽署。彼得，您知道，這可能需要一點時間。

Your next question comes from the line of George Shapiro from Shapiro Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Shapiro Research 的 George Shapiro。

Frank, if you could just fill in a couple of numbers. How much was aftermarket up in the quarter?

法蘭克，如果你能填幾個數字的話。本季售後市場上漲了多少？

Well, at Aviation, aftermarket as a percent of the sales was 27%. So you can kind of do the V. Based on that, it was 11%.

在航空領域，售後市場佔銷售額的百分比為 27%。因此，您可以計算出 V。

[16%] for the year, and I think it was (inaudible) in the quarter.

[16%] 是全年的，而且我認為本季的（聽不清楚）。

Yes. And it was -- and aftermarket was 33% of total sales for the year at Aviation.

是的。事實也確實如此——售後市場佔航空業全年總銷售額的 33%。

Okay. And Scott, you didn't specifically mention, but I assume you're looking at deliveries based on the revenue forecast for '23, somewhere 200, 205 deliveries. Is that fair?

好的。斯科特，您沒有具體提到，但我認為您是根據 23 年的收入預測來計算交付量的，大約是 200 到 205 輛。這樣公平嗎？

Yes, it's going to be in that neighborhood, George. And so that -- we've had a lot of dialogue and think about when you back to '19 and obviously, the mix of aircraft is quite different, right? I mean, we're certainly heavier on the super mids and the mids than we would have been a few years ago, but that's -- if you look at our revenue guide, it's probably going to be somewhere around that couple of hundred aircraft.

是的，它會在那個街區，喬治。所以 — — 我們進行了很多對話，想想當你回到 19 年時，顯然飛機的組合是完全不同的，對吧？我的意思是，與幾年前相比，我們在超中型飛機和中型飛機上的投入肯定更大，但如果你看看我們的收入指南，可能就會在幾百架飛機左右。

Okay. And Scott, if you -- I looked at the fourth quarter and even if I added back the $16 million that you mentioned for supply chain issues, the margin was still weaker than the last couple of quarters. So what else was going on there?

好的。斯科特，如果你——我看了第四季度的數據，即使我加上你提到的用於供應鏈問題的 1600 萬美元，利潤率仍然低於前幾季。那麼那裡還發生了什麼事？

Well, I don't know where the 16 -- the inefficiencies that we took through and LIFO, which was around probably about $10 million or something impact is largely what drove us to the margin rate that we reported.

嗯，我不知道我們透過後進先出法消除的低效率在哪裡，其影響大概在 1000 萬美元左右，這在很大程度上推動了我們達到報告的利潤率。

Your next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞波波納克 (Noah Poponak)。

Scott, you've alluded to it, but your backlog is several multiples of what it was just a few years ago and the production is not. So what's the average wait time at this point? And how are you thinking about managing how long you're making customers wait for an airplane?

史考特，你已經提到了這一點，但你的積壓訂單量是幾年前的幾倍，而產量卻沒有。那麼目前平均等待時間是多少呢？您是如何考慮控制乘客等待飛機的時間的？

Well, look, I mean it does vary from model to model, right? When you look at the longitudes and latitudes the larger aircraft in the family, and we think those should be out a couple of years. And that's generally where they are. When you get into some of the smaller aircraft. Those tend to be a shorter cycle order deliveries. But again, those probably should be in that 12- to 18-month kind of window.

嗯，看，我的意思是它確實因模型而異，對嗎？當您查看該系列中較大的飛機的經度和緯度時，我們認為它們應該會在幾年後問世。他們通常就在那裡。當你進入一些較小的飛機時。這些往往是周期較短的訂單交付。但同樣，這些可能應該在 12 到 18 個月的時間範圍內。

So when we think about production volumes and what we're laying into our forecast which is been -- that then drives what our sales team has in terms of available slots and time frames, that's kind of how we're managing it.

因此，當我們考慮生產量以及我們的預測時，這會決定我們的銷售團隊在可用時段和時間範圍方面的情況，這就是我們的管理方式。

Okay. How does pricing that's entering the backlog now compared to pricing that's hitting the P&L now in the aviation jet business?

好的。現在進入積壓訂單的定價與現在影響航空噴射機業務損益表的定價相比如何？

It's better.

這樣更好。

Is that -- increasing or stable?

這是在增加還是保持穩定？

I'm not sure. I mean, we don't measure a gap. You mean pricing of inflation, is that...

我不知道。我的意思是，我們沒有測量差距。你的意思是通膨的定價，是嗎…

I guess what I'm wondering is, I know you've been taking price as the market's been stronger. Was there a period of time as the market was strengthening, where you were not taking as much price to allow the backlog to extend first before you now take more price? Is that the strategy? Or has it been pretty consistent for the last few years?

我想我感到疑惑的是，我知道隨著市場變得更加強勁，你一直在衡量價格。在市場走強的一段時間裡，你們是否會先降低價格以允許積壓訂單繼續增加，然後再提高價格？這就是策略嗎？或者過去幾年一直保持相當穩定？

It's been pretty consistent. I think the -- but the pricing -- obviously, demand is strong, right, which is very helpful from a pricing standpoint. But our opinion, this market has been mispriced for a long time. I mean, this is a business which, as you guys know, it's a lot of R&D. It's expensive to develop these things and get them through certifications and you need to have fair pricing to generate these kind of margins.

它一直非常一致。我認為——但定價——顯然，需求強勁，對吧，這從定價的角度來看非常有幫助。但我們認為，這個市場長期以來一直被錯誤定價。我的意思是，正如你們所知，這是一個需要大量研發的產業。開發這些東西並通過認證的成本很高，所以你需要有公平的定價才能產生這樣的利潤。

We always believe the business had to be back as a double-digit profit margin business, and we've been driving price to make sure that, that's the case.

我們始終堅信，業務必須重新回到兩位數的利潤率，並且我們一直在提高價格以確保這一點。

Okay. And what would be a credible protest case on FLRAA from your competition?

好的。您的競爭對手對 FLRAA 提出的可信抗議案例是什麼？

I don't think there would be one.

我不認為會有這樣的情況。

Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

Just a quick one. Can you help me think through this LIFO adjustment you guys are making? I mean, isn't it sort of unfair to not include inflation in your costs?

只需快速操作即可。你能幫我思考一下你們所做的後進先出調整嗎？我的意思是，如果不將通膨因素納入成本中是不是有點不公平？

Well. Yes, -- so Ron, that's a good question. Look, just to make sure we understand the LIFO. So actual inflation is still in the segments. That's very much a cash impact. It remains in the segment. The only thing we're taking out of the segment is this LIFO provisioning, right?

出色地。是的，－－羅恩，這是個好問題。你看，只是為了確保我們了解後進先出法。因此實際通貨膨脹仍處於階段性階段。這對現金的影響非常大。它仍保留在該段中。我們從該部分去掉的唯一東西就是這個後進先出 (LIFO) 配置，對嗎？

So by full accounting, which -- again, I'm just a simple engineer, Ron, but the LIFO provisioning phenomenon is that I'm -- I've bought parts at one price. And now I have a new contract with a supplier. I have a higher price for that part. As soon as that first part shows up, the LIFO provision is basically taking the actual price I paid for those other parts and raising them up to the price of that new part. So it's an accounting provisioning process. It's not an actual cost.

因此，透過全面會計核算，—再說一次，我只是一個簡單的工程師，羅恩，但後進先出供應現像是我—我以一個價格購買了零件。現在我與供應商簽訂了新合約。我對這個零件的報價更高。一旦第一個零件出現，後進先出條款基本上就是將我為其他零件支付的實際價格提高到新零件的價格。所以這是一個會計撥備過程。這不是實際成本。

So when I get to where that higher dollar part gets consumed by an aircraft, that's going to be in my cost. That real inflation is in the segment. It is cash and it is in performance. It's only that provisioning of that -- the nature of this last-in, first-out accounting that is what we're pulling out of the segment.

因此，當我發現飛機消耗了更高價的零件時，這些成本就會計入我的成本中。真正的通貨膨脹存在於該部分。它是現金，它正在發揮作用。我們從這一部分中提取的只是這種後進先出會計的性質。

So I guess another way to frame the question though is, if we were to look at your margins pro forma it's back to GAAP for 2023, what would they be if you didn't do that adjustment?

因此，我想提出這個問題的另一種方式是，如果我們要查看您的利潤率預測，它會回到 2023 年的 GAAP，如果您不進行這項調整，利潤率會是多少？

Well, you'll have that full disclosure, right? You'll see that LIFO number.

那麼，你會得到完整的披露，對嗎？您會看到那個後進先出 (LIFO) 號碼。

You'll see the total LIFO, Ron. Well, Ron, there -- no one else in our space is on LIFO. So we're on LIFO. For accounting, you need to conform that between tax and accounting. So we derive a benefit from a tax standpoint in an inflationary environment by essentially accelerating those costs for book and tax purposes.

你會看到總會進先出法 (LIFO)，羅恩。好吧，羅恩，我們這裡沒有其他人採用後進先出法。因此我們採用後進先出法。對於會計來說，你需要確認稅務和會計之間的一致。因此，在通貨膨脹的環境下，我們從稅收的角度獲得了好處，因為本質上是為了帳面和稅收目的而加速了這些成本。

But as Scott said, it's not a true economic cost. And we have basically hung up about $600 million of effectively LIFO provision on our balance sheet that was profit never realized because of this accounting that is not consistent with everyone else in the space.

但正如斯科特所說，這並不是真正的經濟成本。我們基本上在資產負債表上保留了約 6 億美元的有效後進先出準備金，這些利潤從未實現，因為這種會計方法與該領域其他所有人的會計方法都不一致。

So as inflation has accelerated here and LIFO has become a bigger number, we felt it was important to highlight that. And certainly, from a segment performance, take it out of the segment performance because it is not a true economic cost to the business. It is essentially a function of the accounting treatment that we have, but it will never -- that inflation -- that LIFO inflation will never turn into true economic cost in the business.

因此，隨著通貨膨脹加速，後進先出法變得越來越大，我們認為強調這一點很重要。當然，從分部績效來看，將其從分部績效中剔除，因為它對企業來說並不是真正的經濟成本。它本質上是我們現有的會計處理的功能，但它永遠不會——通貨膨脹——後進先出法通貨膨脹永遠不會轉變為企業的真正經濟成本。

So this -- Ron, this has been an issue. We've always been on LIFO. Textron has always been on LIFO. So in a noninflationary environment, it's relatively small. It's always been a bit of a drive. It's a small number. It's not been an issue. But with an inflationary environment, all of a sudden, you have these big noneconomic bookings.

所以這個——羅恩，這一直是一個問題。我們一直採用後進先出法。德事隆一直採用後進先出法。因此，在非通膨環境中，這個數字相對較小。這總是有點動力。這是一個很小的數字。這不是一個問題。但在通貨膨脹的環境下，你會突然發現自己有大量的非經濟預訂。

And again, as Frank said, other companies -- everyone else in our space, does FIFO accounting instead of LIFO accounting. So we get a lot of questions from investors about what are these differences. And so, I think taking this out makes sense.

而且，正如弗蘭克所說，其他公司——我們這個領域的其他所有公司，都採用先進先出法會計，而不是後進先出法會計。因此，我們收到了很多投資者關於這些差異是什麼的問題。因此，我認為將其刪除是有意義的。

And look, the reality is we don't manage the business that way, right? I mean, when we sit down with the business, when we're doing our plans, we're managing, we do our operating calls that LIFO it's not something they control, right? It's not economic.

但事實上我們並不是以那樣的方式管理業務的，對吧？我的意思是，當我們坐下來討論業務時，當我們在製定計劃、進行管理、進行運營時，後進先出法並不是他們能控制的，對吧？這不經濟。

And so, that's not how we manage the businesses, right? We don't look at that. So it makes sense to also not report that in that segment since that's not how we manage these guys either. They don't control that LIFO. They do control and they do get held accountable for actual real inflation on that -- on those higher part counts, right?

所以，這不是我們管理業務的方式，對嗎？我們不看這個。因此，在該部分中不報告這一點也是有道理的，因為這也不是我們管理這些人的方式。他們不控制後進先出法。他們確實控制著實際通膨，而且確實要對更高部分的實際通膨負責，對嗎？

So that's -- we're not taking anything operational out of the segment, but managing it on what they control and the real financial impact.

所以，我們不會從該部門中拿走任何營運成果，而是根據他們的控制範圍和實際財務影響來管理。

Your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr from Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Cai von Rumohr。

So as Sheila mentioned, allegedly, you guys went after [AJRD]. You did buy Pipistrel. You've won FLRAA. So it looks like your business is becoming more a and b. If we kind of look at values across the space, it looks like valuations tend to be higher for pure plays, either you're doing aerospace, you're doing air conditioning, whatever.

正如 Sheila 所提到的，據稱你們追逐的是 [AJRD]。您確實購買了 Pipistrel。您贏得了 FLRAA。因此看起來您的業務越來越趨向 a 和 b。如果我們看一下整個領域的價值，看起來純粹的業務的估值往往更高，無論你是從事航空航天業，還是從事空調業，無論什麼。

So as you think of your business, Scott, are you thinking of any strategic initiatives? At one point, I think you considered spinning off Kautex. How are you thinking about that now?

那麼斯科特，當您考慮您的業務時，您是否考慮過任何策略性舉措？我覺得您曾經一度考慮過剝離考特斯 (Kautex)。您現在對此有何看法？

Well, look, I don't think we're going to talk about portfolio shaping or changes as part of the earnings call. It's something we're always looking at. And I think we'll leave it at that.

嗯，看，我認為我們不會在收益電話會議上討論投資組合的塑造或變化。這是我們一直在關注的事情。我想我們就到此為止了。

Okay. Great. And can you give us any help on the -- I don't know, but what Lockheed's -- what the case Lockheed is making as to why they're protesting because certainly, on paper, it looks like your vehicle is very substantially better than theirs.

好的。偉大的。您能否為我們提供幫助——我不知道，但洛克希德公司——洛克希德公司抗議的理由是什麼，因為從紙面上看，你們的飛行器確實比他們的飛行器好很多。

Look, I mean, obviously, that process is going on between the Army and Lockheed. So we probably can't comment too much. I guess, I would just say that this -- as you all know, this process has been going on for a decade, right? There's been an enormous amount of work between both suppliers and the Army from design, development, test, prototype, flight. It's been an unbelievably robust process.

看，我的意思是，顯然，這個過程正在陸軍和洛克希德之間進行。所以我們可能無法發表太多評論。我想，我只想說──大家都知道，這個過程已經持續了十年，對吧？供應商和陸軍在設計、開發、測試、原型和飛行等方面做了大量工作。這是一個令人難以置信的艱難過程。

And so, I don't -- it's hard for me to understand what flaw would have been in the process. It's kind of inconceivable to me, but we'll leave that to the Army and Lockheed. And needless to say, we're -- we think they made the right choice. I'm proud of what our team did and we're excited to get this thing behind us and get on with the program as I'm sure the Army is.

所以，我不明白──我很難理解這個過程會出現什麼缺陷。對我來說這有點難以想像，但我們會把這個問題留給陸軍和洛克希德。不用說，我們認為他們做出了正確的選擇。我為我們團隊所做的事情感到自豪，我們很高興能完成這件事並繼續推進該計劃，我相信陸軍也是如此。

Terrific. And the last one is cash deployment. I mean, you've got good cash flow, even though down year-over-year. You've got a good balance sheet. You've basically heavily focused on share repurchase. I mean, really a lot of leverage there. But you also bought Pipistrel. As you think about where the cash is going, maybe give us some thoughts about M&A versus share repurchase, dividends, all of that?

了不起。最後一個是現金部署。我的意思是，儘管與去年同期相比有所下降，但你的現金流仍然良好。你有一份良好的資產負債表。您基本上高度關注股票回購。我的意思是，那裡確實有很大的影響力。但您也買了 Pipistrel。當您考慮現金的去向時，能否告訴我們關於併購與股票回購、股利等的看法？

Well, look, I mean we always look at opportunities that are out there, Cai. And I would say relative to your earlier question, comment, yes, we would view our focus in the world to be within the A&D space in terms of most of our capital deployment. Pipistrel has turned out to be a great little business. Bought some great technology into the company and is now kind of important to us in terms of the future of sustainable flight.

嗯，看，我的意思是我們總是在尋找外面的機會，蔡。關於您先前的問題和評論，我想說，是的，就我們大部分資本配置而言，我們將把全球重點放在 A&D 領域。 Pipistrel 已成為一家非常出色的小型企業。為公司帶來了一些優秀的技術，對於我們未來的永續飛行來說，這些技術非常重要。

But if opportunities like that come along, then that's great. We've done some other smaller deals, again, in the A&D space, and we would continue to look at that. But our principal deployment of our capital has been for the last number of years in the share buyback. We've been doing kind of 5%, 6%. We did another 5%, 6% this past year, and I would expect that's probably the track we're on in 2023 as well.

但如果有這樣的機會，那就太好了。我們在 A&D 領域也進行了一些其他較小的交易，我們將繼續關注這些交易。但過去幾年來，我們主要的資本部署是股票回購。我們的成長率大概在 5% 到 6% 之間。去年我們的成長率又達到了 5%、6%，我預期 2023 年我們的成長率也將維持這個水準。

Your next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的克里斯汀·利瓦格 (Kristine Liwag)。

Scott, for the demand environment for Aviation, can you give us an update in terms of the customer profile that you're seeing that are placing these aircraft orders? Are they corporate, individual, fractional's? Are they giving more for growth, replacement? Or are they new buyers? Any additional context would be helpful in understanding the demand environment?

史考特，關於航空業的需求環境，您能否向我們提供訂單飛機的客戶概況的最新情況？他們是企業的、個人的還是部分的？他們是否為成長和替代付出了更多？還是他們是新買家？任何額外的背景資訊是否有助於理解需求環境？

Sure. We haven't seen much of a change. It continues to be that same mix. There's still new buyers coming into the marketplace. Fractional is certainly strong. There's a lot of buyers on the fractional side. That's a particularly attractive place for I think for new people to go, right? It's not easy to necessarily know how to own this asset. The fractional's provide a great option for people that want to get in. That's doing well. But we still see robust whole aircraft sales. It's a mix of public companies, private companies, family held companies. It really is kind of our usual customer base, I would say.

當然。我們還沒看到太大的變化。它繼續保持相同的混合。仍有新買家進入市場。分數當然很強。有很多買家購買零碎物品。我認為對於新人來說那是一個特別有吸引力的地方，對嗎？要知道如何擁有這項資產並不容易。對於想要加入的人來說，分數線提供了一個很好的選擇。但我們仍然看到整機銷售強勁。它是上市公司、私人公司和家族企業的混合體。我想說，這確實是我們的常客群。

It remains also kind of the same as we've seen around jets largely being driven by the North American market, probably 70-30 to 80-20 in that range, which is normal. Turboprops are more robust internationally. Again, we see stronger activity, again, like 60%-plus international versus domestic on King Air's for instance. So the trend in terms of that, who is that customer is kind of our traditional buyers?

它也保持著和我們所看到的噴射機大致相同的趨勢，主要由北美市場推動，大概在 70-30 到 80-20 的範圍內，這是正常的。渦輪螺旋槳發動機在國際上更加堅固。我們再次看到更強勁的活動，例如，King Air 的國際航班量比國內航班量高出 60% 以上。那麼從這個趨勢來看，誰是我們的傳統的買家呢？

Great. And maybe following up on the supply chain issues that you mentioned. I mean for some of these suppliers that continue to struggle for a few years now, what's the long-term solution? What can you do to mitigate their problems, so you can actually deliver on the strong demand for biz jet? Are there other solutions, like you need to vertically integrate your supply chain or anything like that to alleviate some of the pressure? What other actions can you take?

偉大的。或許還會跟進您提到的供應鏈問題。我的意思是，對於一些幾年來一直在苦苦掙扎的供應商來說，長期的解決方案是什麼？您可以採取什麼措施來緩解他們的問題，從而真正滿足對公務機的強勁需求？還有其他解決方案嗎？您還可以採取什麼其他措施？

Yes, that's a good question. Look, it's a mix, right? I mean, in some cases, we have some smaller suppliers and technologies where they basically kind of were us and we did acquire them and integrated them as part of our business.

是的，這是個好問題。看，這是混合物，對吧？我的意思是，在某些情況下，我們有一些較小的供應商和技術，它們基本上就是我們，我們確實收購了它們並將它們整合為我們業務的一部分。

We have a good track record of doing that in the past around some critical areas, interiors we did. That's been a home run for us. We just did a deal this past year in the actuation space. Again, a very unique aerospace technology. Most of the volume was ours. It's a critical supplier and a critical technology for us in the future. And these aren't big numbers, but it was a great acquisition. And so far, it's working out really, really well for us. It's helped to get us back on track.

我們在一些關鍵領域，例如室內領域，過去都有過良好的記錄。對我們來說，這真是一次全壘打。我們去年剛在執行領域達成了一筆交易。再次，這是一項非常獨特的航空航天技術。大部分的銷量都是我們的。它對我們未來來說是一個關鍵的供應商和一個關鍵的技術。雖然這些數字並不大，但這是一次偉大的收購。到目前為止，我們的效果非常非常好。它幫助我們重回正軌。

But there's always going to be some guys out there that are suppliers where it's -- we're a small percentage of their sales. It's very capital intensive. It's a technology that -- it doesn't make sense for us to vertically integrate that. And so in those cases, we just keep working on those folks.

但總是會有一些人是供應商，我們只佔他們銷售額的一小部分。這是非常資本密集的。這是一項技術，我們垂直整合它是沒有意義的。所以在這種情況下，我們只是繼續努力幫助這些人。

I think those suppliers are all trying to get back up to speed. Obviously, it's a good business for them. So there's -- I'd say, we don't have suppliers that I'm aware of that are abstinent or don't want to perform. It's a matter of them getting the resources back in place and some tier suppliers getting in place and those are folks that just take a fair bit of work.

我認為這些供應商都在努力恢復正常運作。顯然，這對他們來說是一筆好生意。所以我想說，據我所知，我們並沒有供應商拒絕履行合約或不願意履行義務。問題在於他們需要重新安排資源，並讓一些層級供應商到位，而這些人需要做相當多的工作。

But I think they will get there. Again, we've seen some of them have already recovered. But there's still a couple of problems that are out there that are working on getting there.

但我認為他們會實現目標。我們再次看到其中一些人已經康復。但仍存在一些問題需要解決。

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I'll just stick to one here. Kind of a follow-up on the last question Kristine asked. I think from a mix perspective, while the deliveries in total are still down from 2019, I think the deliveries to NetJets are probably higher.

我在這裡只堅持一個。這有點像是克里斯汀最後一個問題的後續。我認為從組合角度來看，雖然總交付量仍低於 2019 年，但我認為 NetJets 的交付量可能會更高。

And so as you think about delivery growth from here, do you think about the incremental growth coming more with that top customer or more kind of diversifying the mix a little bit more?

那麼，當您從現在的角度考慮交付成長時，您是否認為增量成長更多是來自於頂級客戶，還是來自於更多樣化的組合？

And then I'd also imagine that the -- like the order for 200 latitudes, the NetJets has probably come into a conclusion pretty soon. And whether you think about -- how you think about expectations for the next slug of latitudes from them?

然後我還可以想像——就像 200 緯度的訂單一樣，NetJets 可能很快就會得出結論。您是否考慮過—您如何看待他們對下一輪緯度挑戰的期望？

Well, so first of all, I don't know what percent of sales back to 2019, what it was on fractional versus today. But look, I think fractional, when you think about diversification, the sale of a fractional aircraft is a more diversified sale, frankly, than a single jet.

嗯，首先，我不知道 2019 年的銷售額佔比是多少，與今天相比有多少差異。但是你看，我認為當你考慮多樣化時，共享飛機的銷售，坦白說，比起單一噴射機的銷售，是一種更加多樣化的銷售。

Remember that this is not a concentration of a buyer in NetJets. Remember, NetJets is out there selling that aircraft to 8 or so people, right? So every sale that we make to NetJet is a sale from NetJet to a whole bunch of different customers. So it's quite diversified.

請記住，這不是 NetJets 買家的集中。請記住，NetJets 正在向大約 8 個人出售那架飛機，對嗎？因此，我們向 NetJet 進行的每筆銷售都是 NetJet 向一大群不同客戶的銷售。所以它相當多樣化。

So I don't expect NetJets or any fractional for that matter to track wildly different than the overall market demand, right? If the market is strong and people are wanting to fly private, you're going to see this mix of people that choose to do it through a fractional, which is actually a lot more people because, again, they're buying a fraction of an aircraft, not a whole aircraft.

所以我不認為 NetJets 或任何部分的表現會與整體市場需求有很大不同，對嗎？如果市場強勁，人們想要搭乘私人飛機，你會看到很多人選擇透過部分飛機租賃來實現這一目標，實際上會有更多的人選擇，因為他們購買的是飛機的一部分，而不是整架飛機。

So when I look at our mix, I think of the mix associated with the NetJet business as being very good mix, right? That's a very diversified sale. It's a very diversified market. And that's kind of that's what they do every day, right? They're out and working and talking to lots and lots of customers in a broad range of customer base for selling that fraction of an aircraft.

因此，當我審視我們的組合時，我認為與 NetJet 業務相關的組合是非常好的組合，對嗎？這是一次非常多樣化的銷售。這是一個非常多樣化的市場。這幾乎就是他們每天都在做的事情，對吧？他們外出工作並與廣泛客戶群中的大量客戶溝通以銷售該部分飛機。

And obviously, as you guys know, one of the things we do now is we work very closely with NetJets and looking out roughly about a year that these things come into backlog based on how their sales team is doing out there selling these aircraft. So it's a great part of our backlog, and it's a great part of our business.

顯然，正如你們所知，我們現在所做的事情之一就是與 NetJets 密切合作，根據他們的銷售團隊銷售這些飛機的情況，預測大約一年左右這些產品的積壓訂單。所以這是我們積壓訂單的重要組成部分，也是我們業務的重要組成部分。

It is as you guys know, it tends to be at a lower margin because we -- it's kind of a wholesale sale, but they're the ones that are out there, spend the money on sales forces and reaching out and selling to that large customer population.

正如你們所知，它的利潤率往往較低，因為我們 - 這是某種批發銷售，但他們是那些在那裡花錢的人，將錢花在銷售人員身上，並接觸並向大量客戶群體銷售產品。

So NetJets remains as through other fractional's as a really important part of the business, and it's a really, really important part of our customer base so are these fractional owners.

因此，NetJets 和其他分時租賃公司一樣，仍然是我們業務中非常重要的一部分，也是我們客戶群中非常重要的一部分，這些分時租賃所有者也是如此。

As far as the deal with NetJets, we are in constant discussions in terms of forecasting unit volumes. As you get to where you get towards the end of a particular quantity buy, obviously, we'll work with NetJets to work on what comes next. But that's kind of a business arrangement between the two of us, obviously.

就與 NetJets 的交易而言，我們一直在就預測單位數量進行討論。當您完成特定數量的購買時，顯然，我們將與 NetJets 合作研究下一步的工作。但這顯然是我們兩人之間的一種商業安排。

But the actual forecast and backlog that's reflected in our numbers is really kind of a rolling 1-year process regardless of what the size of the overall arrangement is between ourselves and NetJets on latitude and longitude volumes.

但無論我們與 NetJets 在緯度和經度方面的整體安排規模如何，我們數字中反映的實際預測和積壓實際上是一種滾動的 1 年過程。

And your last question today comes from the line of Doug Harned from Bernstein.

今天的最後一個問題來自伯恩斯坦公司的道格·哈內德（Doug Harned）。

I wanted to go back to the discussion around the size of the backlog as it clearly has grown quite a bit over the years. And when you look at backlog as it slowed sequentially in this quarter, how do you compare the -- how do you contrast the demand you're seeing for new aviation sales to basically the wait time that's there?

我想重新討論一下積壓訂單的規模，因為這些年來積壓訂單顯然已經增加了不少。當您看到本季積壓訂單量環比放緩時，您如何比較——您如何將您看到的新航空銷售需求與那裡的等待時間進行對比？

In other words, there's a point where you just flat out are going to lose customers if they have to wait too long. So do you see a constraint on the growth from that at this point?

換句話說，如果顧客等待的時間太長，你就會失去他們。那麼，您是否認為目前存在成長限制因素？

Well, we really haven't seen that. I mean, I think the whole industry is in a similar situation, right? If we were in a situation where you couldn't get an aircraft for 18 months to 2 years and somebody else had an aircraft they can get tomorrow, then yes, you could lose that customer.

嗯，我們確實沒有看到過。我的意思是，我認為整個行業都處於類似的情況，對嗎？如果我們處於這樣的境地：你在 18 個月到 2 年內都無法獲得一架飛機，而其他人有一架他們明天就可以獲得的飛機，那麼是的，你可能會失去這個客戶。

And I think, obviously, somebody could go buy a used aircraft or something in that nature. But I think right now, the whole industry is in this situation. And frankly, it's where this industry should be, right? I mean these are complicated assets. There are a lot of times, customers already have aircraft. They need to sell their used aircraft.

我認為，顯然有人可以去買二手飛機或類似的東西。但我認為現在整個產業都處於這種情況。坦白說，這正是這個行業應該處於的位置，對嗎？我的意思是這些都是複雜的資產。很多時候，客戶已經有飛機了。他們需要出售二手飛機。

So look, I think the -- remember, this industry actually worked like this way for a very, very, very long time. The aberration has been since 2008 to the last 2 years ago, where you didn't have much of a backlog in this class.

所以，我認為——記住，這個行業實際上已經這樣運作了很長很長很長時間。這種異常情況從 2008 年到最近兩年一直存在，當時該類別中沒有太多積壓課程。

Generally speaking, this industry has been a backlog business. It should be a backlog business. By the time you specify aircraft and configure aircraft and customize the aircraft, it's -- this is -- this really where we're sitting today is what normal should look like, not what we've seen in the past 10, 12 years.

整體來說，這個產業一直是積壓生意。這應該是個積壓業務。當你指定飛機、配置飛機和客製化飛機時，這就是——我們今天所處的位置確實是正常的樣子，而不是我們在過去 10 年、12 年所看到的樣子。

Now when you get to the situation, though, which is clearly a good situation, the solution always is to add capacity, and we've seen that happen in past cycles as well. When you look out today, what things would you want to see to make material increases in your production capacity?

現在當你遇到這種情況時，這顯然是一個好的情況，解決方案始終是增加容量，我們在過去的周期中也看到過這種情況。當您今天放眼未來時，您希望看到哪些事情能夠實質地提高您的生產能力？

Look, I don't think it's our production capacity so much. I mean obviously, we're struggling through some of these supplier issues, and you don't hear it tactically.

瞧，我不認為這與我們的生產能力有很大關係。我的意思是，顯然我們正在努力解決一些供應商問題，而您卻沒有從戰術上聽到這一點。

But remember, as we talk about the delivery times, what our team is out there selling as we look at that backlog, they're selling aircraft and serial numbers that are delivered at certain dates, right? So that's how you manage this backlog, and then you've got to make sure that you dial in your production schedule to match what those committed delivery dates are.

但請記住，當我們談論交貨時間時，我們的團隊正在銷售什麼，當我們查看積壓訂單時，他們正在銷售在特定日期交付的飛機和序號，對嗎？這就是你管理積壓訂單的方法，然後你必須確保撥入你的生產計劃以匹配那些承諾的交貨日期。

So if you start to see a softening in the order rate, then you're going to sell out fewer of those slots in the future and then you would adjust your production. If you all of a sudden say, hey, 2025, it looks like you could have 5 more latitudes or 10 more M2s, then you do that and you modulate your production capacity accordingly.

因此，如果您開始看到訂單率下降，那麼您將來售出的庫存就會減少，然後您就會調整生產。如果你突然說，嘿，到 2025 年，看起來你可以再擁有 5 個緯度或 10 個 M2，那麼你就這樣做，並相應地調整你的生產能力。

But I think as long as you're out there looking at this sort of 12-, 18-month, 2-year kind of time lines, it gives you the ability to do that. And again, that's how this industry has always worked.

但我認為，只要你關注這種 12 個月、18 個月或 2 年的時間線，你就有能力做到這一點。而這個行業一直以來都是這樣運作的。

And just one last thing. When you look at the constraints coming from the supply chain, are there some specific areas right now that you would point to as most difficult?

還有最後一件事。當您查看來自供應鏈的限制時，您是否會指出目前最困難的某些特定領域？

Yes. I mean I can tell you a couple of part numbers that are our biggest challenges. We're not going to do that. I'm not going to throw particular suppliers under the bus. But yes, there's a couple of particular products, a couple of particular technologies from a couple of particular suppliers that are our biggest constraint. I mean there's always a bunch of little stuff going on, but for sure. If you get a couple of these guys back in line, that would be very helpful.

是的。我的意思是我可以告訴你幾個我們面臨的最大挑戰的零件編號。我們不會這麼做。我不會讓特定的供應商陷入困境。但確實有幾款特定產品、幾款特定供應商提供的幾款特定技術是我們最大的限制。我的意思是總是會發生一些小事，但肯定是如此。如果你能讓其中幾個人重新回到隊伍裡，那將會非常有幫助。

And again, that doesn't mean we turn that into, all of a sudden, delivering a lot more aircraft because, again, we've committed dates to our customers. It's a lot more for us right now about getting rid of all the inefficiencies in our production runs, where we're having to build aircraft and swap parts around and do things out of sequence. It's very, very harmful to running a good, smooth production operation when you've got to go chase all the stuff around.

再說一次，這並不意味著我們會突然交付更多的飛機，因為我們已經向客戶承諾了日期。現在我們更重要的是要消除生產過程中的所有低效率，即我們必須建造飛機並更換零件，並且不按順序進行所有事情。當你必須到處去追逐所有的東西時，這對於良好、順利的生產運作是非常非常有害的。

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女士們，先生們，本次會議將於今天美國東部時間上午 10 點後至 2024 年 1 月 25 日提供重播。

That does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T teleconference. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議就到此結束了。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。