達信公司 (TXT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2022 Textron Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 2022 年第四季度德事隆收益發布電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Vice President, Investor Relations, Mr. Eric Salander. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議轉交給你的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Eric Salander 先生。請繼續。

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release.

謝謝，格雷格，大家早上好。在我們開始之前，我想提一下，我們將在今天的電話會議上討論未來的估計和期望。這些前瞻性陳述受制於我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及今天的新聞稿中詳述的各種風險因素。

On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO; and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

今天的電話會議有德事隆董事長兼首席執行官 Scott Donnelly；和我們的首席財務官 Frank Connor。我們的收益電話演示可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Revenues in the quarter were $3.6 billion, up from $3.3 billion in last year's fourth quarter. Segment profit in the quarter was $317 million, up $7 million from the fourth quarter of '21.

本季度收入為 36 億美元，高於去年第四季度的 33 億美元。本季度的部門利潤為 3.17 億美元，比 21 年第四季度增加 700 萬美元。

During this year's fourth quarter, we reported income from continuing operations of $1.07 per share. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $368 million in the quarter, up $70 million from last year's fourth quarter.

在今年第四季度，我們報告的持續經營收益為每股 1.07 美元。本季度養老金繳款前的製造業現金流總計 3.68 億美元，比去年第四季度增加 7000 萬美元。

For the full year, revenues were $12.9 billion, up $487 million from last year. In 2022, segment profit was $1.2 billion, up $89 million from 2021. Income from continuing operations was $4.01 per share compared to $3.30 in 2021. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $1.2 billion, up $29 million from 2021.

全年收入為 129 億美元，比去年增加 4.87 億美元。 2022 年，部門利潤為 12 億美元，比 2021 年增加 8900 萬美元。持續經營收益為每股 4.01 美元，而 2021 年為 3.30 美元。養老金繳款前的製造業現金流為 12 億美元，比 2021 年增加 2900 萬美元。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給斯科特。

Thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Our business closed out the year with another strong quarter.

謝謝，埃里克，大家早上好。我們的業務以另一個強勁的季度結束了這一年。

In the quarter, aviation grew revenue and segment profit, reflecting higher aircraft deliveries, increased aftermarket volume and strong pricing net of inflation as compared to last year's fourth quarter. Also in the quarter, we continue to see solid order flow, customer demand across our aircraft product portfolio, ending the year with $6.4 billion of backlog.

本季度，航空業收入和分部利潤均有所增長，這反映出與去年第四季度相比，飛機交付量增加、售後市場銷量增加以及扣除通脹後的強勁定價。同樣在本季度，我們繼續看到穩定的訂單流和客戶對我們飛機產品組合的需求，年底積壓訂單達 64 億美元。

For the year, we delivered 178 jets, up from 167 last year, and 146 commercial turboprops, up from 125 in 2021. Textron Aviation Defense delivered 10 T-6 aircraft for the year, up from 5 a year ago. Throughout 2022, strong aircraft utilization within the Textron Aviation product portfolio resulted in a 16% growth in aftermarket revenues.

今年，我們交付了 178 架噴氣式飛機，高於去年的 167 架；交付了 146 架商用渦輪螺旋槳飛機，高於 2021 年的 125 架。德事隆航空防務公司今年交付了 10 架 T-6 飛機，高於一年前的 5 架。整個 2022 年，德事隆航空產品組合中飛機的強勁利用率導致售後市場收入增長了 16%。

At Bell, as expected, revenues were down slightly in the quarter on lower military revenue, reflecting the continued wind down of the H-1 program, partially offset by higher commercial revenues.

在貝爾，正如預期的那樣，由於軍事收入減少，該季度的收入略有下降，反映出 H-1 計劃的持續減少，部分被更高的商業收入所抵消。

In December, U.S. Army announced that Bell's V-280 Valor was selected as the winner of the Future Long Range Assault Aircraft program competition. This award is a testament to the hard work of the Bell team, the design built through the V-280 prototype over the last 10 years in support of this win.

12 月，美國陸軍宣布貝爾的 V-280 Valor 被選為未來遠程攻擊機項目競賽的獲勝者。這個獎項證明了貝爾團隊的辛勤工作，過去 10 年通過 V-280 原型構建的設計支持了這一勝利。

Initial for our contract award of up to $1.3 billion over the first 19 months with an initial funding of $232 million for engineering and manufacturing development related activity is currently on hold pending the outcome of a protest that was filed at year-end by the competing vendor. On the commercial side of Bell, we delivered 179 helicopters in 2022, up from 156 in 2021.

我們在前 19 個月授予的高達 13 億美元的合同初始資金以及用於工程和製造開發相關活動的 2.32 億美元的初始資金目前被擱置，等待競爭供應商在年底提出的抗議結果.在貝爾的商業方面，我們在 2022 年交付了 179 架直升機，高於 2021 年的 156 架。

Moving to Textron Systems. Revenues were essentially flat with last year's fourth quarter. During the fourth quarter, Systems awarded another anti-vehicle munition contract from the U.S. Army. The award is valued at $162 million over a 5-year period of performance.

轉向德事隆系統。收入與去年第四季度基本持平。在第四季度，Systems 與美國陸軍簽訂了另一份反車輛彈藥合同。該獎項在 5 年的績效期間價值 1.62 億美元。

In December, Systems announced the delivery of the Cottonmouth to the U.S. Marine Corps for testing through 2023. This vehicle was purpose-built for the Marine's Advanced Reconnaissance Vehicle program. Also in the quarter, Systems delivered the sixth Ship-to-Shore Connector to the U.S. Navy after successful completion of acceptance trials.

12 月，Systems 宣布將 Cottonmouth 交付給美國海軍陸戰隊進行 2023 年的測試。這輛車是專門為海軍陸戰隊的高級偵察車計劃建造的。同樣在本季度，Systems 在成功完成驗收試驗後向美國海軍交付了第六個船對岸連接器。

Moving to Industrial. We saw higher revenue in the quarter, driven by higher volume at both Kautex and specialized vehicles and favorable pricing, principally, specialized vehicles.

轉向工業。我們看到本季度的收入有所增加，這是由於 Kautex 和專用車輛的銷量增加以及優惠的定價（主要是專用車輛）。

Moving to Aviation. We delivered 6 Bell selector aircraft in the fourth quarter, including the first unit into Canada. For the year, Pipistrel delivered 61 aircraft following the completion of the acquisition in April 2022.

轉向航空。我們在第四季度交付了 6 架貝爾選擇機，其中包括第一架進入加拿大的飛機。在 2022 年 4 月完成收購後，Pipistrel 全年交付了 61 架飛機。

In summary, we saw strong demand across our commercial product lines and the teams executed well, despite supply chain and labor constraints. At Aviation, the team executed very well with a full year segment profit margin of 11.5%. It was above the high end of our original guidance range.

總而言之，儘管供應鍊和勞動力受到限制，但我們的商業產品線需求強勁，團隊執行良好。在 Aviation，該團隊執行得非常好，全年分部利潤率為 11.5%。它高於我們最初指導範圍的高端。

Aviation's backlog grew 55% to $6.4 billion at year-end, on strong order activity and customer demand. On the new product front, we received FAA certification for the Cessna SkyCourier and delivered 6 units to our launch customer, FedEx, during 2022.

由於強勁的訂單活動和客戶需求，航空業的積壓訂單在年底增長了 55%，達到 64 億美元。在新產品方面，我們獲得了 Cessna SkyCourier 的 FAA 認證，並在 2022 年期間向我們的啟動客戶 FedEx 交付了 6 台。

The Textron Aviation Defense, the light attack AT-6 Wolverine achieved Military Type Certification from the U.S. Air Force, enabling the first international sale of 8 aircraft.

輕型攻擊機 Textron Aviation Defense AT-6 Wolverine 獲得了美國空軍的軍用型號認證，從而實現了 8 架飛機的首次國際銷售。

At Bell, the December 2022 FLRAA contract, award has solidified the long-term outlook for the segment and should provide an increasing revenue stream that we expect will drive growth well into the future.

在貝爾，2022 年 12 月 FLRAA 合同的授予鞏固了該部門的長期前景，應該會提供不斷增長的收入來源，我們預計這將推動未來的增長。

On FLRAA, the 360 Invictus is nearly complete, and we expect first flight 2023, pending delivery of the ITEP engine. At Textron Systems, we advanced our weapons programs with the award of our anti-vehicle munition programs, continued work on the robotic combat vehicle and armored reconnaissance vehicle development programs.

在 FLRAA 上，360 Invictus 已接近完成，我們預計 2023 年首飛，等待 ITEP 發動機的交付。在德事隆系統公司，我們通過授予反車輛彈藥計劃來推進我們的武器計劃，繼續致力於機器人戰車和裝甲偵察車開發計劃。

Systems also obtained Airworthiness Certification for 4 additional F1s at ATAC, bringing the total operational F1 fleet to 23 aircraft in support of increased demand across U.S. military tactical air programs.

Systems 還在 ATAC 獲得了另外 4 架 F1 的適航認證，使 F1 機隊總數達到 23 架，以滿足美國軍事戰術空中計劃不斷增長的需求。

At Textron Specialized Vehicles, the company continued its leadership in the development and production of zero emission gulf vehicles, turfmaintenance equipment and ground support equipment markets.

在 Textron Specialized Vehicles，該公司繼續在零排放海灣車輛、草坪維護設備和地面支持設備市場的開發和生產方面處於領先地位。

At Kautex in 2022, we were awarded contracts on 14 hybrid electric vehicle programs for our fuel systems. At aviation, the Pipistrel Velis Electro continue to receive certifications from around the world, has now certified in more than 30 countries.

2022 年，在考特斯，我們獲得了 14 個混合動力電動汽車項目的合同，這些項目將用於我們的燃料系統。在航空領域，Pipistrel Velis Electro 不斷獲得來自世界各地的認證，現已在 30 多個國家獲得認證。

Looking to 2023. At aviation, we are projecting growth driven by increased deliveries across all product lines and higher aftermarket volume. At Bell, we're projecting revenue growth in 2023 on higher military revenues from the FLRAA program and higher commercial revenues. At Systems, we're expecting mid-single-digit revenue growth across our businesses. At Industrial, we're expecting revenue growth at specialized vehicles and Kautex.

展望 2023 年。在航空領域，我們預計增長將受到所有產品線交付量增加和售後市場銷量增加的推動。在貝爾，我們預計 2023 年的收入增長來自 FLRAA 計劃的更高軍事收入和更高的商業收入。在 Systems，我們預計我們的業務收入將實現中個位數增長。在 Industrial，我們預計專用車輛和 Kautex 的收入將增長。

At Aviation, we plan to continue investments in development of technologies and products supporting sustainable flight solutions for unmanned cargo, next-generation electric trainers, eVTOL's and general aviation.

在航空領域，我們計劃繼續投資開發技術和產品，以支持無人貨運、下一代電動教練機、eVTOL 和通用航空的可持續飛行解決方案。

With this overall backdrop, we're projecting revenues of about $14 billion for Textron's 2023 financial guidance, projecting adjusted EPS in the range of $5 to $5.20. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions is expected to be in the range of $900 million to $1 billion.

在此總體背景下，我們預計德事隆 2023 年財務指南的收入約為 140 億美元，調整後的每股收益預計在 5 至 5.20 美元之間。養老金繳款前的製造業現金流預計在 9 億至 10 億美元之間。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation.

謝謝，斯科特，大家早上好。讓我們回顧一下每個細分市場的貢獻，首先是德事隆航空。

Revenues at Textron Aviation of $1.6 billion, were up $223 million from a year ago, reflecting higher jet and defense volume and higher pricing. Segment profit was $169 million in the fourth quarter, up $32 million from last year's fourth quarter due to favorable pricing, net of inflation of $29 million and higher volume and mix, partially offset by an unfavorable impact from performance.

Textron Aviation 的收入為 16 億美元，比一年前增加了 2.23 億美元，反映出更高的噴氣式飛機和國防銷量以及更高的定價。第四季度的分部利潤為 1.69 億美元，比去年第四季度增加 3200 萬美元，原因是定價有利，扣除 2900 萬美元的通貨膨脹以及更高的銷量和組合，部分被業績的不利影響所抵消。

Performance includes unfavorable manufacturing performance largely related to inefficiencies from supply chain disruptions and increased staffing associated with higher production, partially offset by lower selling and administrative costs. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $6.4 billion.

績效包括不利的製造績效，這在很大程度上與供應鏈中斷導致的效率低下以及與更高產量相關的人員增加有關，部分被較低的銷售和管理成本所抵消。該部門積壓的訂單在本季度末為 64 億美元。

Moving to Bell. Revenues were $816 million, down $42 million from last year, reflecting lower military revenues, partially offset by higher commercial revenues. Segment profit was $71 million -- of $71 million was down $17 million from a year ago, primarily reflecting lower military volume and mix, partially offset by a favorable impact from performance. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $4.8 billion.

搬到貝爾。收入為 8.16 億美元，比去年減少 4200 萬美元，反映出較低的軍事收入，部分被較高的商業收入所抵消。分部利潤為 7,100 萬美元，其中 7,100 萬美元比一年前減少 1,700 萬美元，這主要反映了較低的軍事數量和組合，部分被業績的有利影響所抵消。該部門積壓的訂單在本季度末為 48 億美元。

At Textron Systems, revenues were $314 million, up $1 million from last year's fourth quarter. Segment profit of $40 million was down $5 million from a year ago. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $2.1 billion.

Textron Systems 的收入為 3.14 億美元，比去年第四季度增加了 100 萬美元。 4000 萬美元的部門利潤比一年前下降了 500 萬美元。該部門積壓的訂單在本季度結束時為 21 億美元。

Industrial revenues were $907 million, up $126 million from last year, reflecting higher in volume and mix of $95 million, and a $59 million favorable impact from pricing largely at specialized vehicles product line, partially offset by an unfavorable impact of $28 million from foreign exchange rate fluctuations.

工業收入為 9.07 億美元，比去年增加 1.26 億美元，反映了 9500 萬美元的數量和組合的增加，以及主要在專用車輛產品線定價的 5900 萬美元有利影響，部分被外匯 2800 萬美元的不利影響所抵消率波動。

Segment profit of $42 million was up $4 million from the fourth quarter of 2021, primarily due to higher volume and mix, partially offset by an unfavorable impact from performance.

分部利潤為 4200 萬美元，比 2021 年第四季度增加了 400 萬美元，這主要是由於銷量和組合的增加，部分被業績的不利影響所抵消。

Textron eAviation segment revenues were $6 million and segment loss was $10 million in the fourth quarter of 2022, which reflected the operating results of Pipistrel along with research and development costs for initiatives related to the development of sustainable aviation solutions. Finance segment revenues were $11 million, and profit was $5 million.

2022 年第四季度，Textron eAviation 部門的收入為 600 萬美元，部門虧損為 1000 萬美元，這反映了 Pipistrel 的經營業績以及與開發可持續航空解決方案相關的舉措的研發成本。金融部門收入為 1100 萬美元，利潤為 500 萬美元。

Moving below segment profit, corporate expenses were $43 million in the fourth quarter. Interest expense, net for the manufacturing group was $17 million. Our manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $368 million in the quarter.

低於部門利潤，第四季度的公司支出為 4300 萬美元。製造集團的利息支出淨額為 1700 萬美元。本季度我們扣除養老金繳款前的製造業現金流為 3.68 億美元。

For the year, manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $1.2 billion, up $29 million from the prior year, despite higher cash tax payments of $284 million in 2022 related to the R&D tax law change.

全年，儘管 2022 年與研發稅法變更相關的現金稅增加了 2.84 億美元，但養老金繳款前的製造業現金流總計 12 億美元，比上年增加 2900 萬美元。

In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 3.3 million shares, returning $228 million in cash to shareholders. For the full year, we repurchased approximately 13.1 million shares, returning $867 million in cash to shareholders.

本季度，我們回購了約 330 萬股股票，向股東返還了 2.28 億美元現金。全年，我們回購了大約 1310 萬股股票，向股東返還了 8.67 億美元現金。

Beginning in the first quarter of 2023, we'll change how we measure our segment results. Going forward, we will exclude from segment profit, the LIFO inventory provision, intangible asset amortization, and the nonservice component of pension and postretirement income or expense. These items will be separately reported on the income statement below segment profit.

從 2023 年第一季度開始，我們將改變衡量分部業績的方式。展望未來，我們將從分部利潤中排除後進先出法存貨準備金、無形資產攤銷以及養老金和退休後收入或支出的非服務部分。這些項目將在分部利潤下的損益表中單獨報告。

We believe these changes will provide a more consistent method of measuring and evaluating business performance across our segments, while also aligning our reporting results more consistently with other companies within our industry.

我們相信這些變化將提供一種更加一致的方法來衡量和評估我們各個部門的業務績效，同時也使我們的報告結果與我們行業內的其他公司更加一致。

On Slides' 15 and 16 in the investor presentation posted to our website, you will find prior year results, reflecting the recast of segment profit.

在發佈到我們網站的投資者演示文稿中的幻燈片 15 和 16 中，您會找到上一年的結果，反映了部門利潤的重鑄。

Also effective with the first quarter of 2023 results, we will report earnings per share on an adjusted basis that excludes the LIFO inventory provision and intangible asset amortization, both noncash items.

同樣從 2023 年第一季度的業績開始，我們將在調整後的基礎上報告每股收益，不包括後進先出法庫存準備金和無形資產攤銷，這兩項都是非現金項目。

Turning now to our 2023 outlook on Slide 9. We're expecting adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $5 to $5.20 per share. We're also expecting manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions to be about $900 million to $1 billion.

現在轉向我們對幻燈片 9 的 2023 年展望。我們預計調整後的每股收益將在每股 5 美元至 5.20 美元之間。我們還預計養老金繳款前的製造業現金流量約為 9 億至 10 億美元。

Moving to segment outlook on Slide 11 and beginning with Textron Aviation. We're expecting revenues of about $5.7 billion. Segment margin is expected to be in a range of approximately 12% to 13%. Looking to Bell, we expect revenues of about $3.3 billion.

轉到幻燈片 11 的細分市場展望，從德事隆航空開始。我們預計收入約為 57 億美元。分部利潤率預計在約 12% 至 13% 的範圍內。展望貝爾，我們預計收入約為 33 億美元。

We're forecasting a margin in a range of 8.25% to 9.25%. At systems, we're estimating revenues of about $1.25 billion with a margin in a range of about 10.75% to 11.75%. At Industrial, we're expecting segment revenues of about $3.6 billion and margin to be in the range of about 5% to 6%.

我們預測利潤率在 8.25% 到 9.25% 之間。在系統方面，我們估計收入約為 12.5 億美元，利潤率在 10.75% 至 11.75% 之間。在工業領域，我們預計分部收入約為 36 億美元，利潤率在 5% 至 6% 之間。

At eAviation, we expect revenues of $45 million and a segment loss of $65 million, largely reflecting our continued investments in sustainable aviation solutions. Lastly, at finance, we're forecasting a profit of about $15 million.

在 eAviation，我們預計收入為 4500 萬美元，部門虧損為 6500 萬美元，這在很大程度上反映了我們對可持續航空解決方案的持續投資。最後，在財務方面，我們預計利潤約為 1500 萬美元。

Looking at Slide 12, we're projecting about $150 million of corporate expense. We're also projecting about $90 million of net interest expense, $130 million of LIFO inventory provision, $35 million of intangible asset amortization, and $235 million of nonservice pension income. We expect a full year effective tax rate of approximately 17.5%.

查看幻燈片 12，我們預計公司支出約為 1.5 億美元。我們還預計約 9000 萬美元的淨利息支出、1.3 億美元的 LIFO 庫存撥備、3500 萬美元的無形資產攤銷和 2.35 億美元的非服務養老金收入。我們預計全年有效稅率約為 17.5%。

Turning to Slide 13. R&D is expected to be about $585 million, down from $601 million last year. We're estimating CapEx will be about $425 million, up from $354 million in 2022. Our outlook assumes an average share count of about 205 million shares in 2023.

轉到幻燈片 13。預計研發費用約為 5.85 億美元，低於去年的 6.01 億美元。我們估計資本支出約為 4.25 億美元，高於 2022 年的 3.54 億美元。我們的展望假設 2023 年的平均股數約為 2.05 億股。

That concludes our prepared remarks. So Greg, you can open the line for questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。格雷格，你可以打開問題熱線。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu from Jefferies.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

You've definitely had a busy quarter between FLRAA. So congratulations on that. And I think you threw in an Aerojet bid and (inaudible) as well.

您肯定在 FLRAA 之間度過了一個忙碌的季度。祝賀你。而且我認為您也參與了 Aerojet 競標和（聽不清）。

So I wanted to focus on aviation margins. In Q4, I think you ended at 10.7%, potentially lower, including the recasting for LIFO. How do we think about the walk to the 12.5% margins in 2023?

所以我想關注航空利潤率。在第四季度，我認為你以 10.7% 結束，可能會更低，包括後進先出法的重鑄。我們如何看待 2023 年實現 12.5% 的利潤率？

Well, I think, Sheila. So first of all, the quarter, we knew that we were going to have some headwind with supply chain. And obviously, we brought a lot of new people onboard, which is a good thing, but had a lot of impacts just getting all those folks on and training and those kinds of interruptions. So in the quarter, we did take a lot of those unusual impacts right to expense in the quarter rather than putting it into in inventory. So we did take a hit on that.

好吧，我想，希拉。因此，首先，在本季度，我們知道我們將在供應鏈方面遇到一些不利因素。很明顯，我們帶來了很多新人，這是一件好事，但是讓所有這些人加入並接受培訓以及那些類型的干擾產生了很大的影響。因此，在本季度，我們確實將很多不尋常的影響直接計入本季度的費用，而不是將其計入庫存。所以我們確實在這方面受到了打擊。

LIFO was still in there, obviously, in that reported number. So obviously, on a recast basis going forward, that will be there. But -- so I think when we think about what happens as we go into 2023, obviously, you're going to not have the LIFO in there. And I think we're going to see -- again, we're guiding probably almost $0.5 billion of higher revenue, and that converts at good margins. So I think, we're pretty bullish on our ability to drive higher margins as we go through 2023.

顯然，在那個報告的數字中，後進先出法仍然在那裡。很明顯，在未來的重鑄基礎上，它將會存在。但是 - 所以我認為當我們考慮進入 2023 年時會發生什麼，顯然，你不會在那裡有後進先出法。而且我認為我們將會看到——再次，我們正在引導可能增加近 5 億美元的收入，並且以良好的利潤率進行轉換。所以我認為，我們非常看好我們在 2023 年推動更高利潤率的能力。

And maybe just as a follow-up to that longer term, like, how do you think about peak trough margins in aviation? Is it just steady as it goes from here? Can it just be a 20% incremental margin business?

也許只是作為長期的後續行動，比如，你如何看待航空業的峰谷利潤率？它從這裡開始是穩定的嗎？它可以只是一個 20% 的增量利潤業務嗎？

Well, as you know, Sheila, based on analyst pressures, we've been striving to get above 10% margins in the aviation business. So -- and we feel pretty good about that.

嗯，正如你所知，希拉，基於分析師的壓力，我們一直在努力使航空業務的利潤率超過 10%。所以 - 我們對此感覺很好。

So look, I think it's going to be very much volume driven. You guys know we tend to convert somewhere in that 20%, 25% range. I expect we can continue that as we go forward. Certainly, we're guiding that in our conversion for 2023. And as we go beyond that, we'll just have to see where the market is.

所以看，我認為這將非常受數量驅動。你們知道我們傾向於在 20%、25% 的範圍內進行轉換。我希望我們可以繼續前進。當然，我們在 2023 年的轉換中指導這一點。當我們超越這一點時，我們只需要看看市場在哪裡。

The good news is demand has remained strong. The fourth quarter demand remained strong, and with good bookings in Q4. So environment, I think we feel pretty good about. But in terms of what margins do on a go-forward basis, I think we would kind of remain in that neighborhood of expecting sort of a 20%, 25% conversion on our revenue growth.

好消息是需求依然強勁。第四季度需求依然強勁，第四季度的預訂情況良好。所以環境，我覺得大家感覺還不錯。但就利潤率在前進的基礎上所做的事情而言，我認為我們會保持在預期收入增長 20%、25% 的範圍內。

Your next question comes from the line of David Strauss from Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 David Strauss。

Scott, could you just talk through the forecasted Bell, so up revenue, down margins, decent amount. You mentioned it includes FLRAA. So what exactly is your assumption for FLRAA? Does that assume you win it post the protest? Just if you could help there.

斯科特，你能不能談談預測的貝爾，所以收入增加，利潤率下降，數量可觀。你提到它包括 FLRAA。那麼您對 FLRAA 的假設到底是什麼？這是否假設你在抗議後贏得了它？只要你能幫忙就好了。

Sure, David, it does. So the protest period ends at the first week of April. So we've baked that into our estimates, assuming that will be resolved by that period of time.

當然，大衛，確實如此。所以抗議期在四月的第一周結束。因此，我們已將其納入我們的估計，並假設該問題將在該時間段內得到解決。

Obviously, the dynamics in terms of margin is that we will continue to see a decline on the military revenue side. There'll be some offset on the commercial revenue side. We've had a good year in terms of bookings and expect to see nice growth on the commercial side.

顯然，就利潤率而言，我們將繼續看到軍事收入方面的下降。商業收入方面會有一些抵消。我們在預訂方面度過了美好的一年，並期望在商業方面看到良好的增長。

And then obviously, we'll have 3/4 of the FLRAA program coming in, which is good, but that is a lower margin business. I mean EMD programs tend to be lower margin, and that's what we've forecast in our guide for you for '23.

然後很明顯，我們將有 3/4 的 FLRAA 計劃進來，這很好，但這是一個利潤率較低的業務。我的意思是 EMD 計劃的利潤率往往較低，這就是我們在 23 年指南中為您預測的情況。

Can you -- Scott, can you say specifically how much revenue is in there for FLRAA? And how would we expect to ramp beyond 2023 in terms of revenue?

斯科特，你能具體說說 FLRAA 有多少收入嗎？我們如何期望在 2023 年之後實現收入增長？

No, we're not going to break out the specifics of the individual programs, but I think clearly, it will ramp as we go into '24, '25 and obviously, I think probably for quite some time. I mean, I think this program will be a terrific boom for the business. It's going to start out, obviously, with a lot of the CMD, which as we said, is great volume and good revenue, but not a whole lot of margin.

不，我們不會詳細說明各個項目的細節，但我清楚地認為，隨著我們進入 24 年、25 年，它會逐漸增加，而且很明顯，我認為可能會持續相當長的一段時間。我的意思是，我認為這個項目會給企業帶來巨大的繁榮。很明顯，它會從很多 CMD 開始，正如我們所說的那樣，這是一個巨大的銷量和良好的收入，但不是很多利潤。

And then obviously, we'll expect to see it continue to grow and turn into better margins as you get into production programs and foreign military sales and all the things that we would expect will come along with a successful FLRAA program.

然後很明顯，我們希望看到它繼續增長並隨著您進入生產計劃和對外軍事銷售以及我們期望的所有事情將隨著成功的 FLRAA 計劃一起出現而帶來更好的利潤。

Okay. And last one on the aero supply chain. Could you just update us there? And your deliveries, I think, came in a fair amount lighter for the full year than we were originally anticipating at the beginning of the year. So how many additional deliveries could you have done this year, if you didn't have supply chain bottlenecks?

好的。最後一個是航空供應鏈。你能在那裡更新我們嗎？我認為，你們全年的交付量比我們年初最初預期的要輕得多。那麼，如果您沒有供應鏈瓶頸，您今年可以完成多少次額外交付？

Well, I don't know if we'll go into express numbers, David. But look, we've been kind of forecasting here since the mid part of the year that we expected we would end up a few hundred million dollars light versus our initial guide based on the fact that we continue to see supply chain challenges and some labor issues.

好吧，我不知道我們是否會進入明確的數字，大衛。但是看，自今年年中以來，我們一直在這裡進行預測，根據我們繼續看到供應鏈挑戰和一些勞動力這一事實，我們預計我們最終將比我們最初的指南少賺幾億美元問題。

I think labor has certainly improved through the balance of the year, although a lot of that is new folks and training and it has an efficiency impact, but at least we're making some progress on that front.

我認為勞動力在今年剩餘時間里肯定有所改善，儘管其中很多是新員工和培訓，並且對效率有影響，但至少我們在這方面取得了一些進展。

I think we've had a number of suppliers that were challenged or getting better, but you always have a couple out there that are still struggling. So that was a -- we kind of anticipated that in the back half of the year. That's why we kind of try to provide some color that we expected this to be a few hundred million off of our guide.

我認為我們有許多供應商受到挑戰或變得更好，但總有一些供應商仍在苦苦掙扎。所以那是 - 我們有點期待在今年下半年。這就是為什麼我們嘗試提供一些顏色，我們預計這會比我們的指南低幾億。

But I think that we've taken that into consideration. So as we think about next year's guide for '23, it's -- there are still going to be supply chain challenges all along the way, but we're -- we think we've taken that into proper consideration in terms of the '23 guide.

但我認為我們已經考慮到了這一點。因此，當我們考慮明年的 23 年指南時，它是 - 一路上仍然存在供應鏈挑戰，但我們 - 我們認為我們已經根據“ 23 指南。

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard from Vertical Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

I'll start with Frank. I was wondering, if you could give us some sort of walk on the manufacturing cash flow and why you expect it to modestly decline in 2023?

我將從弗蘭克開始。我想知道，您是否可以給我們介紹一下製造業現金流，以及為什麼您預計它會在 2023 年小幅下降？

Yes. It's just -- it's a reflection of an expectation that we'll continue to see good performance from the -- from a working capital standpoint, but we do have the continuation of higher cash taxes associated with the R&D tax credit change. And also, we're just expecting a lower -- slightly lower V in - and deposit activity from commercial volume.

是的。這只是 - 從營運資金的角度來看，這反映了我們將繼續看到良好表現的預期，但我們確實有與研發稅收抵免變化相關的更高現金稅的持續。而且，我們只是期待較低的——略低的 V in——和商業交易量的存款活動。

So we're kind of framing it in terms of kind of 1:1 book-to-bill type expectation as it relates to deposit activity, and that kind of has a little bit of a headwind on cash relative to where we have been.

因此，我們在某種程度上根據與存款活動相關的 1:1 帳單對帳單類型的預期來構建它，並且相對於我們一直以來的情況，這種現金有點不利。

Okay. And then maybe one for Scott. Also, been a lot of commentary around about in the business jet industry about some of the lead indicators starting to slow. Have you seen any impact of, say, activity leveling off of used inventory increasing having any impact on order activity for you?

好的。然後也許是給斯科特的。此外，公務機行業中有很多關於一些領先指標開始放緩的評論。您是否看到任何影響，例如，已用庫存的活動趨於平穩增加對您的訂單活動有任何影響？

No, we haven't seen that, Robert. I mean, I think our order rate in the fourth quarter was consistent with the third quarter. It remains quite healthy. I think when people look at some of these leading indicators, like it's hard to keep track of what -- when you see a little bit of an increase in used available for sale, what kind of aircraft are those? What are their vintages?

不，我們還沒有看到，羅伯特。我的意思是，我認為我們第四季度的訂單率與第三季度保持一致。它仍然很健康。我認為當人們看到其中一些領先指標時，就像很難跟踪什麼——當你看到可供出售的二手飛機略有增加時，這些是什麼類型的飛機？他們的年份是什麼？

We think, obviously, the market has been very strong. So people are looking to put some aircraft on the market. They're still at very low levels. So we're not seeing that -- the knock-on effect into market for new aircraft. So we haven't seen a material change in the level of activity that's going out there in terms of order activity.

我們認為，顯然，市場非常強勁。所以人們希望將一些飛機投放市場。他們仍然處於非常低的水平。所以我們沒有看到——新飛機進入市場的連鎖反應。因此，就訂單活動而言，我們還沒有看到活動水平發生重大變化。

I mean it's -- there's lots of people ready reports. It's frankly hard to understand. Sometimes there's so many comparisons of flying by region, by size of aircraft compared to '19, compared to last quarter, compared to '22. It's -- but it's in the round. So we haven't seen any of that have a meaningful impact on order activity.

我的意思是 - 有很多人準備好報告。坦率地說，這很難理解。有時會有很多按地區、按飛機大小與 19 年相比、與上一季度相比、與 22 年相比的飛行比較。它是——但它是全面的。所以我們還沒有看到任何對訂單活動產生有意義的影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Arment from Baird.

您的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Peter Arment。

Scott, just circling back on David's question regarding just the supply chain and maybe just tacking and inflation.

斯科特，只是回到大衛關於供應鏈的問題，也許只是關於通貨膨脹的問題。

So it sounds like -- I mean, (inaudible) expected (inaudible) but it sounds like things are holding in there? Or are they getting a little better? And then just also, just could you maybe talk a little bit how you're passing on in the higher input costs right now?

所以這聽起來像——我的意思是，（聽不清）預期（聽不清），但聽起來好像有東西在那裡？或者他們正在變得更好一點？然後，您能否談談您現在如何在更高的投入成本中轉嫁？

Well, look, on the supply chain side, Peter, I think we have some suppliers where we've had challenges, and we clearly see them getting healthy and getting better. But we have other areas where suppliers are still struggling. I mean, I don't want to go into too much detail, but it's very specific components, very specific suppliers.

好吧，在供應鏈方面，彼得，我認為我們有一些供應商遇到了挑戰，我們清楚地看到他們越來越健康，越來越好。但我們還有其他供應商仍在苦苦掙扎的領域。我的意思是，我不想談太多細節，但它是非常具體的組件，非常具體的供應商。

Obviously, we're working with them and trying to get them healthy and do a better job in terms of getting parts into the factory. And obviously, from our standpoint, we do lots of out-of-sequence work and swapping parts around. We'd like to stop doing that. It's an efficiency hit to us. Our guys have to work through every day. So it's I think it's about the same, right?

顯然，我們正在與他們合作，努力讓他們保持健康，並在將零件送入工廠方面做得更好。顯然，從我們的角度來看，我們做了很多無序的工作和交換零件。我們想停止這樣做。這對我們來說是一個效率打擊。我們的人必須每天努力工作。所以我認為它差不多，對吧？

As I said, there are some suppliers that are getting better, but then you got one that's just having a hard time catching up. I don't know that we're seeing a lot of new suppliers coming in and say, hey, I got a big problem. We have a couple there we've been struggling all year, and we're trying to get them back on schedule. They're working at it, but they're just not quite there yet. And again, we factored that into how we think 2023 will play out.

正如我所說，有些供應商正在變得更好，但你有一個很難趕上。我不知道我們看到很多新供應商進來說，嘿，我遇到了一個大問題。我們有一對夫婦整年都在苦苦掙扎，我們正在努力讓他們回到計劃中。他們正在努力，但他們還沒有完全做到。再一次，我們將這一點納入了我們對 2023 年結果的看法。

In terms of the pricing side of things, Peter, we continue to get price, net of inflation. We're very focused on that. As these input costs increase, we have to drive price to get that back. I think the guys are doing a pretty good job of that.

就事物的定價方面而言，彼得，我們繼續獲得扣除通貨膨脹後的價格。我們非常專注於此。隨著這些投入成本的增加，我們必須推動價格來收回成本。我認為這些人在這方面做得很好。

And just as a quick follow-up on Systems, I mean, just could you talk a little bit post the Army's bill and defense kind of looking funding pretty robust as we go forward. How are you looking at -- we're showing modest growth for Systems this year, but how do you think longer-term?

就像對系統的快速跟進一樣，我的意思是，在我們前進的過程中，你能不能談談陸軍的法案和國防看起來資金相當強勁的情況。你怎麼看 - 我們今年的系統顯示適度增長，但你如何看待長期？

Well, look, I think when we look at the [FADEC] numbers, they seem fine to us. When you look at what came through on the omnibus in terms of this current fiscal year's budget, was in line with our expectations. So I think we're fine.

好吧，看，我認為當我們查看 [FADEC] 數字時，它們對我們來說似乎很好。當您查看當前財政年度預算方面的綜合成果時，符合我們的預期。所以我認為我們很好。

The growth -- the good news at Systems is it's really kind of across almost all the product lines. It's not just one particular thing. Obviously, we've had some new wins in the munition side, which is great. That's put that business back to growth. Sentinel program continues to do well. Our Ship-to-Shore, as I said, we've made deliveries. We'll start negotiating the next production by here shortly, but we'll finish the DD&C this year and start production deliveries.

增長 - Systems 的好消息是幾乎所有產品線都在增長。這不僅僅是一件特定的事情。顯然，我們在彈藥方面取得了一些新的勝利，這很棒。這使該業務恢復增長。哨兵計劃繼續表現良好。正如我所說，我們的船到岸，我們已經交付。我們很快就會在這裡開始談判下一次生產，但我們將在今年完成 DD&C 並開始生產交付。

The ATAC business has had nice growth. Our electronics business has had a nice growth. It really is kind of across all of the businesses within Systems. And the omnibus budget that was appropriated is consistent with obviously what we're guiding to you guys.

ATAC業務增長良好。我們的電子業務增長良好。它確實涉及系統內的所有業務。撥款的綜合預算顯然與我們指導你們的一致。

Your next question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski from Alembic Global.

您的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Pete Skibitski。

Scott, fair to say, I think some of your businesses have a cyclical component to them. And I'm just wondering, I'm sure you guys see, I think the consensus out there for the macro guys is that we'll have some sort of mild recession this year, maybe later this year.

斯科特，公平地說，我認為你們的一些企業具有周期性因素。我只是想知道，我相信你們看到了，我認為宏觀專家的共識是今年我們將出現某種程度的溫和衰退，也許今年晚些時候。

So as you guys see that and whether you agree with it or not, is it prudent for you to maybe even kind of slow the top line growth in those type of businesses in maybe like citation, maybe TSV to kind of protect your margins and not over hire? Are you guys thinking about your businesses that way or not necessarily right now?

因此，正如你們看到的那樣，無論你們是否同意，你們是否謹慎地放慢這些類型業務的收入增長，比如引用，也許 TSV 來保護你們的利潤，而不是過度僱傭？你們現在是否以這種方式考慮您的業務，或者不一定？

We absolutely look at that, Peter. I mean, as I said, there's cyclicality in almost every business, right? So some have more than others. Those that we think are going to be more recession sensitive, we've kind of factored in thinking we'll have a mild recession. I don't think it's going to be dramatic. We're certainly not thinking about something in the scope of back in the 2009, '10 kind of time frame. But I don't think we have an economic situation that's going to lead to something like that.

彼得，我們絕對會關注這一點。我的意思是，正如我所說，幾乎所有行業都存在周期性，對嗎？所以有些人比其他人擁有更多。那些我們認為對經濟衰退更加敏感的，我們已經考慮到我們將經歷溫和的經濟衰退。我認為這不會是戲劇性的。我們當然不是在考慮 2009 年的範圍內的事情，'10 種時間框架。但我不認為我們的經濟形勢會導致那樣的事情發生。

I'd say, look, I think when you look back at previous modest recessions, the area that has always impacted us the most difficult has been a slowdown in the aviation business. And I think we're in a very different place than we've been in those previous sessions because we have a pretty significant backlog.

我會說，看，我認為當你回顧之前的溫和衰退時，對我們影響最大的領域一直是航空業的放緩。我認為我們的處境與之前的會議截然不同，因為我們有相當多的積壓工作。

So I think that the nature of that will allow us to -- even if you were to see a slowdown in bookings, which is entirely possible, I would expect it if you really go into a modest recession, you'll see a slowdown in booking, but you've got almost 2 years of backlog sitting there that you'll continue to execute on. And I think that will help you ride through it.

所以我認為，這種情況的性質將使我們能夠——即使你看到預訂量放緩，這是完全有可能的，我預計如果你真的進入適度衰退，你會看到預訂量放緩預訂，但你有將近 2 年的積壓工作，你將繼續執行。我認為這將幫助您度過難關。

And we haven't had that for a bunch of years, Peter, as you know. So I think that it's one that would translate to a slowdown in bookings, but not something that would slow us down in terms of our revenue and margin generation.

正如你所知，彼得，我們已經很多年沒有這樣做了。因此，我認為這會轉化為預訂量放緩，但不會在我們的收入和利潤產生方面減慢我們的速度。

Okay. That's fair. Just one last one for me. Scott, are you guys any closer to signing that AH-1 deal with Nigeria?

好的。這還算公平。最後一張給我。斯科特，你們是否更接近與尼日利亞簽署 AH-1 協議？

The -- well, I mean it's in the kind of government contracting process, right? So that ends up being -- because of the FMS nature of that, that would be signed between ourselves and the U.S. government. And as you know, Peter, that can take a little while.

- 好吧，我的意思是它處於政府合同流程中，對嗎？所以這最終是——由於 FMS 的性質，我們將與美國政府簽署協議。正如你所知，彼得，這可能需要一些時間。

Your next question comes from the line of George Shapiro from Shapiro Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Shapiro Research 的 George Shapiro。

Frank, if you could just fill in a couple of numbers. How much was aftermarket up in the quarter?

弗蘭克，如果你能填幾個數字就好了。本季度售後市場上漲了多少？

Well, at Aviation, aftermarket as a percent of the sales was 27%. So you can kind of do the V. Based on that, it was 11%.

那麼，在 Aviation，售後市場佔銷售額的百分比為 27%。所以你可以做 V。基於此，它是 11%。

[16%] for the year, and I think it was (inaudible) in the quarter.

[16%] 今年，我認為這是（聽不清）在本季度。

Yes. And it was -- and aftermarket was 33% of total sales for the year at Aviation.

是的。它是 - 售後市場佔 Aviation 年度總銷售額的 33%。

Okay. And Scott, you didn't specifically mention, but I assume you're looking at deliveries based on the revenue forecast for '23, somewhere 200, 205 deliveries. Is that fair?

好的。斯科特，你沒有具體提到，但我假設你正在根據 23 年的收入預測來查看交付量，大約 200、205 次交付。這公平嗎？

Yes, it's going to be in that neighborhood, George. And so that -- we've had a lot of dialogue and think about when you back to '19 and obviously, the mix of aircraft is quite different, right? I mean, we're certainly heavier on the super mids and the mids than we would have been a few years ago, but that's -- if you look at our revenue guide, it's probably going to be somewhere around that couple of hundred aircraft.

是的，它會在那個街區，喬治。因此 - 我們進行了很多對話並考慮了當你回到 19 年時，顯然，飛機的組合是完全不同的，對吧？我的意思是，我們在超中型和中型飛機上的重量肯定比幾年前要重，但那是——如果你看看我們的收入指南，它可能會在幾百架飛機左右。

Okay. And Scott, if you -- I looked at the fourth quarter and even if I added back the $16 million that you mentioned for supply chain issues, the margin was still weaker than the last couple of quarters. So what else was going on there?

好的。斯科特，如果你 - 我看了第四季度，即使我加回你提到的供應鏈問題的 1600 萬美元，利潤率仍然低於過去幾個季度。那麼那裡還發生了什麼？

Well, I don't know where the 16 -- the inefficiencies that we took through and LIFO, which was around probably about $10 million or something impact is largely what drove us to the margin rate that we reported.

好吧，我不知道這 16 個——我們經歷的低效率和後進先出法（LIFO）的影響大約在 1000 萬美元左右，這在很大程度上促使我們達到了我們報告的保證金率。

Your next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak from Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Noah Poponak。

Scott, you've alluded to it, but your backlog is several multiples of what it was just a few years ago and the production is not. So what's the average wait time at this point? And how are you thinking about managing how long you're making customers wait for an airplane?

斯科特，你已經提到過，但你的積壓是幾年前的幾倍，而生產卻不是。那麼此時的平均等待時間是多少？您如何考慮管理讓客戶等待飛機的時間？

Well, look, I mean it does vary from model to model, right? When you look at the longitudes and latitudes the larger aircraft in the family, and we think those should be out a couple of years. And that's generally where they are. When you get into some of the smaller aircraft. Those tend to be a shorter cycle order deliveries. But again, those probably should be in that 12- to 18-month kind of window.

好吧，看，我的意思是它確實因型號而異，對嗎？當您查看家族中較大型飛機的經度和緯度時，我們認為它們應該在幾年後問世。這通常就是他們所在的位置。當你進入一些較小的飛機時。這些往往是周期較短的訂單交付。但同樣，這些可能應該在 12 到 18 個月的窗口中。

So when we think about production volumes and what we're laying into our forecast which is been -- that then drives what our sales team has in terms of available slots and time frames, that's kind of how we're managing it.

因此，當我們考慮產量以及我們對預測的預測時——這會推動我們的銷售團隊在可用時段和時間框架方面擁有什麼，這就是我們管理它的方式。

Okay. How does pricing that's entering the backlog now compared to pricing that's hitting the P&L now in the aviation jet business?

好的。與現在在航空噴氣機業務中達到損益的定價相比，現在進入積壓訂單的定價如何？

It's better.

這是更好的。

Is that -- increasing or stable?

那是增加還是穩定？

I'm not sure. I mean, we don't measure a gap. You mean pricing of inflation, is that...

我不確定。我的意思是，我們不衡量差距。你的意思是通貨膨脹的定價，是...

I guess what I'm wondering is, I know you've been taking price as the market's been stronger. Was there a period of time as the market was strengthening, where you were not taking as much price to allow the backlog to extend first before you now take more price? Is that the strategy? Or has it been pretty consistent for the last few years?

我想我想知道的是，我知道隨著市場走強，你一直在接受價格。是否有一段時間市場正在走強，在你現在採取更高價格之前，你沒有採取盡可能多的價格來讓積壓先延長？那是策略嗎？或者它在過去幾年中一直很穩定？

It's been pretty consistent. I think the -- but the pricing -- obviously, demand is strong, right, which is very helpful from a pricing standpoint. But our opinion, this market has been mispriced for a long time. I mean, this is a business which, as you guys know, it's a lot of R&D. It's expensive to develop these things and get them through certifications and you need to have fair pricing to generate these kind of margins.

它一直非常一致。我認為——但定價——顯然，需求很強勁，對吧，從定價的角度來看，這非常有幫助。但我們認為，這個市場長期以來一直被錯誤定價。我的意思是，正如你們所知，這是一項涉及大量研發的業務。開發這些東西並通過認證是很昂貴的，你需要有公平的定價才能產生這種利潤。

We always believe the business had to be back as a double-digit profit margin business, and we've been driving price to make sure that, that's the case.

我們始終認為，該業務必須恢復為兩位數的利潤率業務，並且我們一直在推動價格以確保情況確實如此。

Okay. And what would be a credible protest case on FLRAA from your competition?

好的。您的競爭對手對 FLRAA 的可信抗議案例是什麼？

I don't think there would be one.

我認為不會有。

Your next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

Just a quick one. Can you help me think through this LIFO adjustment you guys are making? I mean, isn't it sort of unfair to not include inflation in your costs?

只是一個快速的。你能幫我想想你們正在進行的後進先出法調整嗎？我的意思是，不將通貨膨脹計入成本是不是有點不公平？

Well. Yes, -- so Ron, that's a good question. Look, just to make sure we understand the LIFO. So actual inflation is still in the segments. That's very much a cash impact. It remains in the segment. The only thing we're taking out of the segment is this LIFO provisioning, right?

出色地。是的，羅恩，這是一個很好的問題。看，只是為了確保我們了解後進先出法。因此，實際通貨膨脹仍在細分市場中。這對現金影響很大。它保留在段中。我們從該細分市場中取出的唯一東西就是後進先出配置，對嗎？

So by full accounting, which -- again, I'm just a simple engineer, Ron, but the LIFO provisioning phenomenon is that I'm -- I've bought parts at one price. And now I have a new contract with a supplier. I have a higher price for that part. As soon as that first part shows up, the LIFO provision is basically taking the actual price I paid for those other parts and raising them up to the price of that new part. So it's an accounting provisioning process. It's not an actual cost.

因此，通過全面核算，羅恩，我只是一個簡單的工程師，但後進先出供應現像是我——我以一個價格購買了零件。現在我與供應商簽訂了一份新合同。那部分我有更高的價格。一旦第一部分出現，後進先出法基本上就是將我為其他部分支付的實際價格提高到新部分的價格。所以這是一個會計準備過程。這不是實際成本。

So when I get to where that higher dollar part gets consumed by an aircraft, that's going to be in my cost. That real inflation is in the segment. It is cash and it is in performance. It's only that provisioning of that -- the nature of this last-in, first-out accounting that is what we're pulling out of the segment.

因此，當我到達飛機消耗較高美元部分的地方時，那將是我的成本。真正的通貨膨脹在這個部分。它是現金，而且是在執行中。只是這種配置 - 這種後進先出會計的性質就是我們從該細分市場中撤出的內容。

So I guess another way to frame the question though is, if we were to look at your margins pro forma it's back to GAAP for 2023, what would they be if you didn't do that adjustment?

因此，我想另一種構建問題的方法是，如果我們要查看您的備考利潤率，它會回到 2023 年的 GAAP，如果您不進行調整，它們會是什麼？

Well, you'll have that full disclosure, right? You'll see that LIFO number.

好吧，你會得到充分的披露，對吧？您會看到後進先出法編號。

You'll see the total LIFO, Ron. Well, Ron, there -- no one else in our space is on LIFO. So we're on LIFO. For accounting, you need to conform that between tax and accounting. So we derive a benefit from a tax standpoint in an inflationary environment by essentially accelerating those costs for book and tax purposes.

你會看到總的後進先出法，羅恩。好吧，羅恩，在我們的空間裡沒有其他人在後進先出。所以我們在後進先出。對於會計，您需要在稅收和會計之間保持一致。因此，我們通過從根本上加速賬面和稅收目的的這些成本，從通貨膨脹環境中的稅收角度獲得好處。

But as Scott said, it's not a true economic cost. And we have basically hung up about $600 million of effectively LIFO provision on our balance sheet that was profit never realized because of this accounting that is not consistent with everyone else in the space.

但正如斯科特所說，這並不是真正的經濟成本。我們基本上已經在我們的資產負債表上掛掉了大約 6 億美元的有效後進先出準備金，這些準備金從未實現，因為這種會計核算與該領域的其他人不一致。

So as inflation has accelerated here and LIFO has become a bigger number, we felt it was important to highlight that. And certainly, from a segment performance, take it out of the segment performance because it is not a true economic cost to the business. It is essentially a function of the accounting treatment that we have, but it will never -- that inflation -- that LIFO inflation will never turn into true economic cost in the business.

因此，隨著這裡的通貨膨脹加速，後進先出法變得更大，我們認為強調這一點很重要。當然，從細分市場績效中，將其從細分市場績效中剔除，因為這對企業來說並不是真正的經濟成本。它本質上是我們所擁有的會計處理的一個功能，但它永遠不會——即通貨膨脹——LIFO 通貨膨脹永遠不會變成企業中真正的經濟成本。

So this -- Ron, this has been an issue. We've always been on LIFO. Textron has always been on LIFO. So in a noninflationary environment, it's relatively small. It's always been a bit of a drive. It's a small number. It's not been an issue. But with an inflationary environment, all of a sudden, you have these big noneconomic bookings.

所以這-- 羅恩，這是一個問題。我們一直在後進先出。德事隆一直採用後進先出法。所以在非通脹環境中，它相對較小。它總是有點驅動器。這是一個小數字。這不是問題。但是在通貨膨脹的環境下，突然間，你有這些大的非經濟預訂。

And again, as Frank said, other companies -- everyone else in our space, does FIFO accounting instead of LIFO accounting. So we get a lot of questions from investors about what are these differences. And so, I think taking this out makes sense.

再一次，正如弗蘭克所說，其他公司——我們這個領域的其他所有人，都採用 FIFO 會計而不是 LIFO 會計。因此，我們從投資者那裡收到了很多關於這些差異是什麼的問題。所以，我認為把它去掉是有道理的。

And look, the reality is we don't manage the business that way, right? I mean, when we sit down with the business, when we're doing our plans, we're managing, we do our operating calls that LIFO it's not something they control, right? It's not economic.

看，現實是我們不以這種方式管理業務，對嗎？我的意思是，當我們坐下來處理業務時，當我們制定計劃時，我們正在管理，我們會做我們的運營電話，即後進先出法，這不是他們可以控制的，對吧？這不經濟。

And so, that's not how we manage the businesses, right? We don't look at that. So it makes sense to also not report that in that segment since that's not how we manage these guys either. They don't control that LIFO. They do control and they do get held accountable for actual real inflation on that -- on those higher part counts, right?

所以，這不是我們管理業務的方式，對吧？我們不看那個。因此，不在該部分報告這一點是有道理的，因為這也不是我們管理這些人的方式。他們不控制後進先出法。他們確實控制了並且他們確實要對實際的實際通貨膨脹負責——在那些更高的部分，對吧？

So that's -- we're not taking anything operational out of the segment, but managing it on what they control and the real financial impact.

所以這就是 - 我們不會從該部門中取出任何業務，而是根據他們控制的內容和實際財務影響對其進行管理。

Your next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr from Cowen.

你的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr。

So as Sheila mentioned, allegedly, you guys went after [AJRD]. You did buy Pipistrel. You've won FLRAA. So it looks like your business is becoming more a and b. If we kind of look at values across the space, it looks like valuations tend to be higher for pure plays, either you're doing aerospace, you're doing air conditioning, whatever.

正如 Sheila 提到的，據稱，你們追求 [AJRD]。你確實買了 Pipistrel。您贏得了 FLRAA。所以看起來您的業務正變得越來越 a 和 b。如果我們看一下整個領域的價值，看起來純遊戲的估值往往更高，無論你是在做航空航天，還是在做空調，等等。

So as you think of your business, Scott, are you thinking of any strategic initiatives? At one point, I think you considered spinning off Kautex. How are you thinking about that now?

因此，當您考慮您的業務時，斯科特，您是否在考慮任何戰略舉措？有一次，我認為你考慮過剝離 Kautex。你現在怎麼想的？

Well, look, I don't think we're going to talk about portfolio shaping or changes as part of the earnings call. It's something we're always looking at. And I think we'll leave it at that.

嗯，看，我不認為我們會在財報電話會議上討論投資組合調整或變化。這是我們一直在關注的事情。我想我們就此打住。

Okay. Great. And can you give us any help on the -- I don't know, but what Lockheed's -- what the case Lockheed is making as to why they're protesting because certainly, on paper, it looks like your vehicle is very substantially better than theirs.

好的。偉大的。你能不能給我們任何幫助——我不知道，但洛克希德公司的——洛克希德公司提出的抗議理由是什麼，因為從表面上看，你的車輛肯定要好得多比他們的。

Look, I mean, obviously, that process is going on between the Army and Lockheed. So we probably can't comment too much. I guess, I would just say that this -- as you all know, this process has been going on for a decade, right? There's been an enormous amount of work between both suppliers and the Army from design, development, test, prototype, flight. It's been an unbelievably robust process.

看，我的意思是，很明顯，陸軍和洛克希德公司之間正在進行這個過程。所以我們可能不能評論太多。我想，我想說的是——你們都知道，這個過程已經持續了十年，對嗎？從設計、開發、測試、原型到飛行，供應商和陸軍之間進行了大量的工作。這是一個令人難以置信的強大過程。

And so, I don't -- it's hard for me to understand what flaw would have been in the process. It's kind of inconceivable to me, but we'll leave that to the Army and Lockheed. And needless to say, we're -- we think they made the right choice. I'm proud of what our team did and we're excited to get this thing behind us and get on with the program as I'm sure the Army is.

所以，我不——我很難理解這個過程中會有什麼缺陷。這對我來說有點不可思議，但我們會把它留給陸軍和洛克希德。不用說，我們 - 我們認為他們做出了正確的選擇。我為我們的團隊所做的事情感到自豪，我們很高興能把這件事拋在腦後，並像我確信陸軍那樣繼續這個項目。

Terrific. And the last one is cash deployment. I mean, you've got good cash flow, even though down year-over-year. You've got a good balance sheet. You've basically heavily focused on share repurchase. I mean, really a lot of leverage there. But you also bought Pipistrel. As you think about where the cash is going, maybe give us some thoughts about M&A versus share repurchase, dividends, all of that?

了不起。最後一個是現金部署。我的意思是，你有良好的現金流，儘管同比下降。你的資產負債表很好。你基本上非常關注股票回購。我的意思是，那裡真的有很多影響力。但是您還購買了 Pipistrel。當你考慮現金的去向時，也許可以給我們一些關於併購與股票回購、股息等的想法？

Well, look, I mean we always look at opportunities that are out there, Cai. And I would say relative to your earlier question, comment, yes, we would view our focus in the world to be within the A&D space in terms of most of our capital deployment. Pipistrel has turned out to be a great little business. Bought some great technology into the company and is now kind of important to us in terms of the future of sustainable flight.

嗯，看，我的意思是我們總是在尋找機會，蔡。我會說相對於你之前的問題，評論，是的，就我們的大部分資本部署而言，我們將把我們在世界上的重點放在 A&D 領域內。事實證明，Pipistrel 是一家很棒的小公司。為公司購買了一些偉大的技術，就可持續飛行的未來而言，現在對我們來說很重要。

But if opportunities like that come along, then that's great. We've done some other smaller deals, again, in the A&D space, and we would continue to look at that. But our principal deployment of our capital has been for the last number of years in the share buyback. We've been doing kind of 5%, 6%. We did another 5%, 6% this past year, and I would expect that's probably the track we're on in 2023 as well.

但如果這樣的機會出現，那就太好了。我們在 A&D 領域再次進行了一些其他較小的交易，我們將繼續關注這一點。但過去幾年，我們的主要資本配置一直用於股票回購。我們一直在做 5%、6%。去年我們又做了 5%、6%，我預計這也可能是我們在 2023 年走的路。

Your next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag from Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Scott, for the demand environment for Aviation, can you give us an update in terms of the customer profile that you're seeing that are placing these aircraft orders? Are they corporate, individual, fractional's? Are they giving more for growth, replacement? Or are they new buyers? Any additional context would be helpful in understanding the demand environment?

斯科特，對於航空的需求環境，您能否根據您看到的正在下這些飛機訂單的客戶資料向我們提供最新信息？他們是公司的、個人的還是部分的？他們是否為增長和替代提供了更多？或者他們是新買家？是否有任何其他背景信息有助於理解需求環境？

Sure. We haven't seen much of a change. It continues to be that same mix. There's still new buyers coming into the marketplace. Fractional is certainly strong. There's a lot of buyers on the fractional side. That's a particularly attractive place for I think for new people to go, right? It's not easy to necessarily know how to own this asset. The fractional's provide a great option for people that want to get in. That's doing well. But we still see robust whole aircraft sales. It's a mix of public companies, private companies, family held companies. It really is kind of our usual customer base, I would say.

當然。我們沒有看到太大的變化。它仍然是相同的組合。仍有新買家進入市場。分數當然很強。分數方面有很多買家。我認為對於新人來說，這是一個特別有吸引力的地方，對吧？不一定知道如何擁有這項資產並不容易。分數為想要進入的人提供了一個很好的選擇。這很好。但我們仍然看到強勁的整機銷售。它是上市公司、私營公司和家族企業的混合體。我會說，這確實是我們通常的客戶群。

It remains also kind of the same as we've seen around jets largely being driven by the North American market, probably 70-30 to 80-20 in that range, which is normal. Turboprops are more robust internationally. Again, we see stronger activity, again, like 60%-plus international versus domestic on King Air's for instance. So the trend in terms of that, who is that customer is kind of our traditional buyers?

它也與我們看到的主要由北美市場驅動的噴氣式飛機一樣，在該範圍內可能為 70-30 至 80-20，這是正常的。渦輪螺旋槳飛機在國際上更為強勁。同樣，我們再次看到更強勁的活動，例如 King Air 的國際航班與國內航班相比超過 60%。那麼就趨勢而言，那個客戶是我們的傳統買家嗎？

Great. And maybe following up on the supply chain issues that you mentioned. I mean for some of these suppliers that continue to struggle for a few years now, what's the long-term solution? What can you do to mitigate their problems, so you can actually deliver on the strong demand for biz jet? Are there other solutions, like you need to vertically integrate your supply chain or anything like that to alleviate some of the pressure? What other actions can you take?

偉大的。也許跟進您提到的供應鏈問題。我的意思是，對於這些供應商中的一些，這些供應商現在繼續苦苦掙扎了幾年，長期的解決方案是什麼？您可以做些什麼來減輕他們的問題，從而真正滿足對公務機的強勁需求？是否有其他解決方案，比如您需要垂直整合您的供應鍊或類似的東西來減輕一些壓力？您還可以採取哪些其他措施？

Yes, that's a good question. Look, it's a mix, right? I mean, in some cases, we have some smaller suppliers and technologies where they basically kind of were us and we did acquire them and integrated them as part of our business.

是的，這是個好問題。看，這是一個組合，對吧？我的意思是，在某些情況下，我們有一些較小的供應商和技術，它們基本上是我們的一部分，我們確實收購了它們並將它們整合為我們業務的一部分。

We have a good track record of doing that in the past around some critical areas, interiors we did. That's been a home run for us. We just did a deal this past year in the actuation space. Again, a very unique aerospace technology. Most of the volume was ours. It's a critical supplier and a critical technology for us in the future. And these aren't big numbers, but it was a great acquisition. And so far, it's working out really, really well for us. It's helped to get us back on track.

過去，我們在一些關鍵區域（我們所做的室內設計）方面有良好的記錄。這對我們來說是一個本壘打。去年我們剛剛在驅動領域做了一筆交易。再次，非常獨特的航天技術。大部分是我們的。它是我們未來的關鍵供應商和關鍵技術。這些數字並不大，但這是一次偉大的收購。到目前為止，它對我們來說真的非常好。它幫助我們回到正軌。

But there's always going to be some guys out there that are suppliers where it's -- we're a small percentage of their sales. It's very capital intensive. It's a technology that -- it doesn't make sense for us to vertically integrate that. And so in those cases, we just keep working on those folks.

但總會有一些人在那裡成為供應商——我們只佔他們銷售額的一小部分。這是非常資本密集型的。這是一項技術——我們將其垂直整合是沒有意義的。所以在這些情況下，我們只是繼續為這些人工作。

I think those suppliers are all trying to get back up to speed. Obviously, it's a good business for them. So there's -- I'd say, we don't have suppliers that I'm aware of that are abstinent or don't want to perform. It's a matter of them getting the resources back in place and some tier suppliers getting in place and those are folks that just take a fair bit of work.

我認為那些供應商都在努力恢復速度。顯然，這對他們來說是一筆好生意。所以有 - 我會說，我們沒有我知道的供應商禁慾或不想執行。這是他們將資源放回原位以及一些一級供應商就位的問題，而這些人只需要做一些工作。

But I think they will get there. Again, we've seen some of them have already recovered. But there's still a couple of problems that are out there that are working on getting there.

但我認為他們會到達那裡。同樣，我們看到其中一些已經康復。但是仍然有一些問題正在努力實現這一目標。

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman from JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I'll just stick to one here. Kind of a follow-up on the last question Kristine asked. I think from a mix perspective, while the deliveries in total are still down from 2019, I think the deliveries to NetJets are probably higher.

我只在這裡堅持一個。有點像 Kristine 問的最後一個問題的跟進。我認為從混合的角度來看，雖然總交付量仍低於 2019 年，但我認為 NetJets 的交付量可能更高。

And so as you think about delivery growth from here, do you think about the incremental growth coming more with that top customer or more kind of diversifying the mix a little bit more?

因此，當您考慮從這裡開始的交付增長時，您是否會考慮更多來自頂級客戶的增量增長，還是更多樣化的組合？

And then I'd also imagine that the -- like the order for 200 latitudes, the NetJets has probably come into a conclusion pretty soon. And whether you think about -- how you think about expectations for the next slug of latitudes from them?

然後我還可以想像——就像 200 緯度的訂單一樣，NetJets 可能很快就會得出結論。以及您是否考慮 - 您如何考慮對他們的下一個緯度的期望？

Well, so first of all, I don't know what percent of sales back to 2019, what it was on fractional versus today. But look, I think fractional, when you think about diversification, the sale of a fractional aircraft is a more diversified sale, frankly, than a single jet.

好吧，首先，我不知道 2019 年銷售額的百分比是多少，與今天相比是多少。但是看，我認為是零散的，當你考慮多元化時，坦率地說，零散飛機的銷售比單一噴氣式飛機更多元化。

Remember that this is not a concentration of a buyer in NetJets. Remember, NetJets is out there selling that aircraft to 8 or so people, right? So every sale that we make to NetJet is a sale from NetJet to a whole bunch of different customers. So it's quite diversified.

請記住，這不是 NetJets 的買家集中地。請記住，NetJets 將那架飛機賣給了 8 個人左右，對吧？因此，我們向 NetJet 進行的每一筆銷售都是 NetJet 向一大群不同客戶的銷售。所以它相當多樣化。

So I don't expect NetJets or any fractional for that matter to track wildly different than the overall market demand, right? If the market is strong and people are wanting to fly private, you're going to see this mix of people that choose to do it through a fractional, which is actually a lot more people because, again, they're buying a fraction of an aircraft, not a whole aircraft.

因此，我不希望 NetJets 或任何部分跟踪與整體市場需求截然不同，對嗎？如果市場強勁，人們想乘坐私人飛機，你會看到這種混合的人選擇通過部分方式來實現這一點，實際上更多的人因為他們購買的是一部分一架飛機，而不是整架飛機。

So when I look at our mix, I think of the mix associated with the NetJet business as being very good mix, right? That's a very diversified sale. It's a very diversified market. And that's kind of that's what they do every day, right? They're out and working and talking to lots and lots of customers in a broad range of customer base for selling that fraction of an aircraft.

因此，當我審視我們的組合時，我認為與 NetJet 業務相關的組合是非常好的組合，對吧？這是一個非常多元化的銷售。這是一個非常多元化的市場。這就是他們每天所做的事情，對吧？他們出去工作，與廣泛的客戶群中的許多客戶交談，以銷售飛機的那部分。

And obviously, as you guys know, one of the things we do now is we work very closely with NetJets and looking out roughly about a year that these things come into backlog based on how their sales team is doing out there selling these aircraft. So it's a great part of our backlog, and it's a great part of our business.

很明顯，正如你們所知，我們現在做的一件事是我們與 NetJets 密切合作，並根據他們的銷售團隊在那裡銷售這些飛機的方式，大約一年後這些事情就會積壓。所以這是我們積壓的很大一部分，也是我們業務的很大一部分。

It is as you guys know, it tends to be at a lower margin because we -- it's kind of a wholesale sale, but they're the ones that are out there, spend the money on sales forces and reaching out and selling to that large customer population.

正如你們所知，它的利潤率往往較低，因為我們 - 這是一種批發銷售，但他們是那些在那裡的人，將錢花在銷售人員身上並向他們銷售龐大的客戶群體。

So NetJets remains as through other fractional's as a really important part of the business, and it's a really, really important part of our customer base so are these fractional owners.

因此，NetJets 與其他部分公司一樣，仍然是業務中非常重要的一部分，它是我們客戶群中非常非常重要的部分，這些部分所有者也是如此。

As far as the deal with NetJets, we are in constant discussions in terms of forecasting unit volumes. As you get to where you get towards the end of a particular quantity buy, obviously, we'll work with NetJets to work on what comes next. But that's kind of a business arrangement between the two of us, obviously.

至於與 NetJets 的交易，我們一直在就預測單位數量進行討論。當您到達某個特定數量購買的終點時，很明顯，我們將與 NetJets 合作處理接下來的事情。但這顯然是我們兩人之間的一種商業安排。

But the actual forecast and backlog that's reflected in our numbers is really kind of a rolling 1-year process regardless of what the size of the overall arrangement is between ourselves and NetJets on latitude and longitude volumes.

但我們的數字中反映的實際預測和積壓實際上是一個滾動的 1 年過程，無論我們和 NetJets 在緯度和經度數量上的總體安排有多大。

And your last question today comes from the line of Doug Harned from Bernstein.

你今天的最後一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Doug Harned。

I wanted to go back to the discussion around the size of the backlog as it clearly has grown quite a bit over the years. And when you look at backlog as it slowed sequentially in this quarter, how do you compare the -- how do you contrast the demand you're seeing for new aviation sales to basically the wait time that's there?

我想回到圍繞積壓規模的討論，因為多年來它顯然已經增長了很多。當您查看本季度連續放緩的積壓訂單時，您如何比較 - 您如何將您看到的新航空銷售需求與基本上那裡的等待時間進行對比？

In other words, there's a point where you just flat out are going to lose customers if they have to wait too long. So do you see a constraint on the growth from that at this point?

換句話說，如果他們不得不等待太久，你就會失去客戶。那麼，您是否認為此時的增長受到限制？

Well, we really haven't seen that. I mean, I think the whole industry is in a similar situation, right? If we were in a situation where you couldn't get an aircraft for 18 months to 2 years and somebody else had an aircraft they can get tomorrow, then yes, you could lose that customer.

好吧，我們真的沒有看到。我的意思是，我認為整個行業都處於類似情況，對嗎？如果我們處於這樣一種情況，你在 18 個月到 2 年內都無法獲得飛機，而其他人擁有一架他們明天就能獲得的飛機，那麼是的，你可能會失去那個客戶。

And I think, obviously, somebody could go buy a used aircraft or something in that nature. But I think right now, the whole industry is in this situation. And frankly, it's where this industry should be, right? I mean these are complicated assets. There are a lot of times, customers already have aircraft. They need to sell their used aircraft.

而且我認為，顯然，有人可以去購買二手飛機或類似性質的東西。但是我覺得現在整個行業都是這樣的。坦率地說，這就是這個行業應該在的地方，對吧？我的意思是這些是複雜的資產。很多時候，客戶已經有了飛機。他們需要出售二手飛機。

So look, I think the -- remember, this industry actually worked like this way for a very, very, very long time. The aberration has been since 2008 to the last 2 years ago, where you didn't have much of a backlog in this class.

所以看，我認為 - 記住，這個行業實際上以這種方式運作了非常非常長的時間。自 2008 年到最近 2 年前，這種情況一直存在，你在這門課上沒有太多積壓。

Generally speaking, this industry has been a backlog business. It should be a backlog business. By the time you specify aircraft and configure aircraft and customize the aircraft, it's -- this is -- this really where we're sitting today is what normal should look like, not what we've seen in the past 10, 12 years.

一般來說，這個行業一直是積壓業務。應該是積壓業務。當你指定飛機、配置飛機和定制飛機時，它是——這是——我們今天所處的位置是正常情況下應該看起來的樣子，而不是我們在過去 10 年、12 年中看到的樣子。

Now when you get to the situation, though, which is clearly a good situation, the solution always is to add capacity, and we've seen that happen in past cycles as well. When you look out today, what things would you want to see to make material increases in your production capacity?

但是，現在當您遇到這種情況時，這顯然是一個好情況，解決方案始終是增加容量，我們在過去的周期中也看到過這種情況。當你今天展望未來時，你希望看到哪些東西可以使你的產能得到實質性的增長？

Look, I don't think it's our production capacity so much. I mean obviously, we're struggling through some of these supplier issues, and you don't hear it tactically.

看，我不認為這是我們的生產能力那麼多。我的意思是很明顯，我們正在努力解決其中一些供應商問題，而你在戰術上聽不到。

But remember, as we talk about the delivery times, what our team is out there selling as we look at that backlog, they're selling aircraft and serial numbers that are delivered at certain dates, right? So that's how you manage this backlog, and then you've got to make sure that you dial in your production schedule to match what those committed delivery dates are.

但是請記住，當我們談論交貨時間時，當我們查看積壓訂單時，我們的團隊在那裡銷售什麼，他們銷售的是在特定日期交付的飛機和序列號，對嗎？這就是您管理積壓訂單的方式，然後您必須確保撥入生產計劃以匹配那些承諾的交貨日期。

So if you start to see a softening in the order rate, then you're going to sell out fewer of those slots in the future and then you would adjust your production. If you all of a sudden say, hey, 2025, it looks like you could have 5 more latitudes or 10 more M2s, then you do that and you modulate your production capacity accordingly.

因此，如果您開始看到訂單率走軟，那麼您將在未來售罄這些插槽，然後您將調整您的生產。如果你突然說，嘿，2025 年，看起來你可以多 5 個緯度或多 10 個 M2，然後你就這樣做，並相應地調整你的生產能力。

But I think as long as you're out there looking at this sort of 12-, 18-month, 2-year kind of time lines, it gives you the ability to do that. And again, that's how this industry has always worked.

但我認為，只要你在那裡查看這種 12 個月、18 個月、2 年的時間線，它就會讓你有能力做到這一點。再一次，這就是這個行業一直以來的運作方式。

And just one last thing. When you look at the constraints coming from the supply chain, are there some specific areas right now that you would point to as most difficult?

最後一件事。當您查看來自供應鏈的限制時，您現在是否會指出某些特定領域是最困難的？

Yes. I mean I can tell you a couple of part numbers that are our biggest challenges. We're not going to do that. I'm not going to throw particular suppliers under the bus. But yes, there's a couple of particular products, a couple of particular technologies from a couple of particular suppliers that are our biggest constraint. I mean there's always a bunch of little stuff going on, but for sure. If you get a couple of these guys back in line, that would be very helpful.

是的。我的意思是我可以告訴你幾個零件號，它們是我們面臨的最大挑戰。我們不會那樣做。我不會把特定的供應商丟在公共汽車下。但是，是的，有一些特定的產品，來自幾個特定供應商的一些特定技術是我們最大的限制。我的意思是總是有很多小事情在發生，但可以肯定的是。如果你讓其中幾個人重新排隊，那將非常有幫助。

And again, that doesn't mean we turn that into, all of a sudden, delivering a lot more aircraft because, again, we've committed dates to our customers. It's a lot more for us right now about getting rid of all the inefficiencies in our production runs, where we're having to build aircraft and swap parts around and do things out of sequence. It's very, very harmful to running a good, smooth production operation when you've got to go chase all the stuff around.

再說一次，這並不意味著我們突然將其變成交付更多的飛機，因為我們再次向客戶承諾了日期。現在對我們來說更重要的是擺脫我們生產運行中的所有低效率，我們不得不建造飛機並交換零件並亂序做事。當你必須四處尋找所有東西時，這對運行良好、平穩的生產操作非常、非常有害。

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今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。