達信公司 (TXT) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

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（技術難度）

by, and welcome to the Q2 2021 (sic) [Q2 2022] Textron Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.

作者，歡迎參加 2021 年第二季度（原文如此）[2022 年第二季度]德事隆收益發布電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Eric Salander, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Eric Salander。請繼續。

Thanks, Brad, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings, and also in today's press release.

謝謝，布拉德，大家早上好。在開始之前，我想提一下，我們將在今天的電話會議中討論未來的估計和期望。這些前瞻性陳述受各種風險因素的影響，這些風險因素在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件以及今天的新聞稿中都有詳細說明。

On the call, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO; and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

德事隆董事長兼首席執行官斯科特·唐納利（Scott Donnelly）在電話會議上發言；和我們的首席財務官弗蘭克康納。我們的收益電話演示文稿可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Revenues in the quarter were $3.2 billion, essentially flat with last year's second quarter. Segment profit in the quarter was $303 million, up $14 million from the second quarter of 2021. During this year's second quarter, we reported net income of $1 per share compared to $0.81 per share in last year's second quarter. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $309 million in the quarter, down $200 million from the second quarter of 2021.

本季度收入為 32 億美元，與去年第二季度基本持平。本季度的分部利潤為 3.03 億美元，比 2021 年第二季度增加了 1400 萬美元。在今年第二季度，我們報告的每股淨收入為 1 美元，而去年第二季度為每股 0.81 美元。本季度扣除養老金供款前的製造業現金流總額為 3.09 億美元，比 2021 年第二季度減少 2 億美元。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給斯科特。

Thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Aviation had another solid quarter with higher revenues and strong execution, resulting in a 12.1% segment profit margin. We continue to see strong demand, solid pricing and increased deliveries for our citation jets, commercial turboprops and higher aftermarket volume from increased aircraft utilization. We delivered 48 jets, up from 44 last year; and 35 commercial turboprops, up from 33 in last year's second quarter. Order activity was strong in the quarter, reflecting continued order momentum that generated $700 million of backlog growth, resulting in $5.8 billion of backlog at Aviation at the end of the second quarter.

謝謝，埃里克，大家早上好。航空業又一個穩健的季度實現了更高的收入和強勁的執行力，從而實現了 12.1% 的分部利潤率。我們繼續看到我們的引文噴氣式飛機、商用渦輪螺旋槳飛機的強勁需求、穩健的定價和增加的交付量，以及飛機利用率增加導致的售後市場銷量增加。我們交付了 48 架飛機，高於去年的 44 架；和 35 架商用渦輪螺旋槳飛機，高於去年第二季度的 33 架。本季度的訂單活動強勁，反映了持續的訂單勢頭，產生了 7 億美元的積壓增長，導致第二季度末航空業積壓 58 億美元。

During the quarter, Aviation Defense business was awarded a $91 million contract for 8 T-6 aircraft, spares and related support services to Tunisia. Also at Textron Aviation Defense, earlier this week, the AT-6 Wolverine received military-type certification from the U.S. Air Force, paving the way for continued global sales of the light attack aircraft.

在本季度，航空防務業務獲得了一份價值 9100 萬美元的合同，為突尼斯提供 8 架 T-6 飛機、備件和相關支持服務。本週早些時候，同樣在德事隆航空防務公司，AT-6 金剛狼獲得了美國空軍的軍用型認證，為輕型攻擊機的持續全球銷售鋪平了道路。

On the new product front, we delivered the first Cessna SkyCourier to our launch customer, FedEx, and also delivered the first XLS Gen2 aircraft. At Bell, revenues and segment profit were down in the quarter, primarily reflecting lower H-1 program volume.

在新產品方面，我們向我們的啟動客戶 FedEx 交付了第一架 Cessna SkyCourier，還交付了第一架 XLS Gen2 飛機。在貝爾，本季度的收入和部門利潤下降，主要反映了 H-1 項目數量減少。

On the commercial side of Bell, we delivered 34 helicopters, down from 47 in last year's second quarter. While commercial order activity was strong across all models, supply chain headwinds impacted Q2 results as several commercial helicopter deliveries slipped out of the quarter. Overall, the strength in commercial demand, which included South Korea selecting the Bell 505 aircraft for use as its next military trainer, contributed to an increase in Bell backlog of $500 million in the second quarter. During the quarter, Bell announced a contract award of $518 million to upgrade Canada's fleet of CH-146 Griffon aircraft. This upgrade program is expected to be completed by 2028.

在貝爾的商業方面，我們交付了 34 架直升機，低於去年第二季度的 47 架。儘管所有型號的商業訂單活動都很強勁，但供應鏈逆風影響了第二季度的業績，因為本季度有幾架商用直升機的交付量下滑。總體而言，商業需求的強勁，包括韓國選擇貝爾 505 飛機作為其下一個軍用教練機，導致貝爾在第二季度的積壓訂單增加了 5 億美元。在本季度，貝爾宣布了一項價值 5.18 億美元的合同，用於升級加拿大的 CH-146 Griffon 飛機機隊。該升級計劃預計將於 2028 年完成。

Moving to Future Vertical Lift. We now expect the FLRAA contract announcement sometime in October following the AUSA conference. As a result, we anticipate continuing our investment on this program, which will be incremental to our original segment guidance.

移動到未來的垂直升降機。我們現在預計 FLRAA 合同將在 AUSA 會議後的 10 月某個時候公佈。因此，我們預計將繼續對該計劃進行投資，這將增加我們最初的細分市場指導。

Moving to Textron Systems. Revenues were down in the quarter on lower volume, primarily reflecting the impact of last year's withdrawal of the U.S. Army from Afghanistan on our fee-for-service and aircraft support contracts. At ATAC, we continue to see increased flight activity on our U.S. Navy and Air Force adversary air contracts. During the quarter, we delivered LCAC 104 to the U.S. Navy and continued to progress the build process of the remaining EMD craft on the Ship-to-Shore Connector program. Last week, the U.S. Army announced that Systems was awarded a $354 million firm-fixed-price contract for the production and delivery of XM204 top attack munition and anti-vehicle system. This is an IDIQ contract with an estimated completion date of 2027.

搬到德事隆系統。由於銷量下降，本季度收入下降，主要反映了去年美國陸軍從阿富汗撤軍對我們的按服務收費和飛機支持合同的影響。在 ATAC，我們繼續看到我們的美國海軍和空軍敵對空中合同的飛行活動有所增加。在本季度，我們向美國海軍交付了 LCAC 104，並繼續推進船對岸連接器計劃中剩餘 EMD 飛船的建造過程。上週，美國陸軍宣布系統公司獲得了一份價值 3.54 億美元的固定價格合同，用於生產和交付 XM204 頂級攻擊彈藥和反車輛系統。這是一份 IDIQ 合同，預計完成日期為 2027 年。

Moving to Industrial. We saw higher revenues in the quarter, driven by higher pricing and volume in specialized vehicles, mainly in our personal transportation and golf product lines. At Kautex, the auto market remains challenging as we again experienced order disruptions related to the global auto OEM supply chain shortages and COVID-mandated factory shutdowns in China that continue to directly impact our production schedules. In April, we closed the acquisition of Pipistrel, pioneer and global leader in electrically powered aircraft. Beginning in the second quarter of 2022, Pipistrel became part of Textron eAviation, a new reporting segment that includes Pipistrel's operating results and R&D expenses related to the development of sustainable aviation solutions.

轉向工業。我們在本季度看到更高的收入，這主要是在我們的個人交通和高爾夫產品線中，專用車輛的價格和數量增加。在考特斯，汽車市場仍然充滿挑戰，因為我們再次經歷了與全球汽車 OEM 供應鏈短缺和 COVID 規定的中國工廠停工相關的訂單中斷，這些繼續直接影響我們的生產計劃。 4 月，我們完成了對電動飛機先驅和全球領導者 Pipistrel 的收購。從 2022 年第二季度開始，Pipistrel 成為 Textron eAviation 的一部分，這是一個新的報告部門，包括 Pipistrel 的運營業績和與可持續航空解決方案開發相關的研發費用。

In the quarter, we announced that Pipistrel Velis Electro received the U.K. Civil Aviation Authority certification. The Velis Electro remains the only type of certified electric aircraft in the world.

在本季度，我們宣布 Pipistrel Velis Electro 獲得了英國民航局的認證。 Velis Electro 仍然是世界上唯一一種經過認證的電動飛機。

Overall, it was a solid quarter with strong cash generation and growth in earnings. Our teams executed well in a difficult environment, where we continue to experience supply chain disruptions, labor supply shortages and COVID-related impacts across our businesses. While these challenges drove manufacturing efficiencies and delayed product deliveries in many of our businesses, our financial performance demonstrates the resiliency of our operations. Looking forward, we anticipate these headwinds to continue through the remainder of the year.

總體而言，這是一個穩健的季度，現金產生強勁，收益增長。我們的團隊在困難的環境中表現良好，我們繼續在整個業務中經歷供應鏈中斷、勞動力供應短缺和與 COVID 相關的影響。雖然這些挑戰在我們的許多業務中提高了製造效率並延遲了產品交付，但我們的財務業績證明了我們運營的彈性。展望未來，我們預計這些不利因素將持續到今年剩餘時間。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation. Revenues at Textron Aviation of $1.3 billion were up $123 million from the second quarter of 2021, largely due to higher aircraft and aftermarket volume. Segment profit was $155 million in the second quarter, up $59 million from a year ago due to the impact from higher volume and mix of $25 million, a favorable impact from performance of $19 million and favorable pricing net of inflation of $15 million. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $5.8 billion.

謝謝你，斯科特，大家早上好。讓我們回顧一下每個細分市場的貢獻，從德事隆航空開始。德事隆航空的收入為 13 億美元，比 2021 年第二季度增加了 1.23 億美元，這主要是由於飛機和售後市場銷量增加。第二季度的分部利潤為 1.55 億美元，比一年前增加了 5900 萬美元，原因是銷量和組合增加了 2500 萬美元、業績的有利影響為 1900 萬美元以及扣除通脹因素後的有利定價 1500 萬美元。該部門的積壓在本季度末為 58 億美元。

Moving to Bell. Revenues were $687 million, down $204 million from last year due to lower military revenues of $170 million, primarily related to the H-1 program and lower commercial revenues of $34 million. Segment profit of $63 million was down $47 million from last year's second quarter, reflecting lower volume and mix, partially offset by a favorable impact from performance, which included lower operating expenses, partially offset by an unfavorable change in net program adjustments. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $5.3 billion.

搬到貝爾。收入為 6.87 億美元，比去年減少 2.04 億美元，原因是軍事收入減少 1.7 億美元，主要與 H-1 計劃有關，商業收入減少 3400 萬美元。分部利潤為 6,300 萬美元，比去年第二季度減少 4,700 萬美元，這反映了銷量和產品組合的下降，部分被業績的有利影響所抵消，其中包括較低的運營費用，部分被淨計劃調整的不利變化所抵消。該部門的積壓在本季度末為 53 億美元。

At Textron Systems, revenues were $293 million, down $40 million from last year's second quarter due to lower volume of $44 million, primarily reflecting the impact of the U.S. Army's withdrawal from Afghanistan on our fee-for-service and aircraft support contracts. Segment profit of $42 million was down $6 million from a year ago, primarily due to lower volume and mix. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $2.1 billion.

德事隆系統公司的收入為 2.93 億美元，比去年第二季度減少了 4000 萬美元，原因是銷量減少了 4400 萬美元，這主要反映了美國陸軍從阿富汗撤軍對我們的服務費和飛機支持合同的影響。分部利潤為 4200 萬美元，比一年前減少了 600 萬美元，主要是由於銷量和產品組合減少。該部門的積壓在本季度末為 21 億美元。

Industrial revenues were $871 million, up $77 million from last year's second quarter, primarily due to a favorable impact from pricing and higher volume and mix, principally at Specialized Vehicles. Segment profit of $41 million was up $9 million from the second quarter of 2021, primarily due to the higher volume and mix.

工業收入為 8.71 億美元，比去年第二季度增加 7700 萬美元，這主要是由於定價和更高的銷量和組合的有利影響，主要是在特種車輛上。分部利潤為 4100 萬美元，比 2021 年第二季度增加了 900 萬美元，這主要是由於更高的銷量和組合。

Textron eAviation segment revenues were $5 million and segment loss was $8 million in the quarter. Finance segment revenues were $14 million and profit was $10 million.

本季度德事隆電子航空部門收入為 500 萬美元，部門虧損為 800 萬美元。財務部門收入為 1400 萬美元，利潤為 1000 萬美元。

Moving below segment profit. Corporate expenses were $12 million and interest expense was $28 million. Our manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $309 million in the quarter, down $200 million from last year's second quarter. The second quarter of 2022 included significant cash tax payments as a result of the 2022 change in R&D tax treatment. In the quarter, we repurchased 4.4 million shares, returning $282 million in cash to shareholders. For the full year, we are reiterating our earnings per share guidance of $3.80 to $4 per share, and we are increasing our cash flow from continuing operations before pension contributions guidance to be in the range of $800 million to $900 million, up $100 million from our prior outlook.

低於分部利潤。公司費用為 1200 萬美元，利息費用為 2800 萬美元。本季度我們在養老金繳款前的製造業現金流為 3.09 億美元，比去年第二季度減少了 2 億美元。由於 2022 年研發稅收待遇的變化，2022 年第二季度包括大量現金稅。本季度，我們回購了 440 萬股股票，向股東返還了 2.82 億美元現金。對於全年，我們重申我們的每股收益指引為每股 3.80 美元至 4 美元，並且我們將在養老金繳款指引之前將來自持續經營業務的現金流量增加至 8 億美元至 9 億美元之間，較之前的 1 億美元增加了 1 億美元。我們之前的展望。

That concludes our prepared remarks. So Brad, we can open the line for questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。所以布拉德，我們可以打開電話提問。

And our first question today comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們今天的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

I'm impressed, 9 minutes today. So in terms of your guidance for the year, you reiterated it that several companies are missing on supply chain. So maybe can you talk about are you seeing some of the supply chain headwinds for the second half of the year? And Scott, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned FLRAA, the pushout to mid-October. How does that impact the results and the additional investment there?

我印象深刻，今天9分鐘。因此，就您今年的指導而言，您重申供應鏈上缺少幾家公司。那麼，也許您能談談您是否看到今年下半年的一些供應鏈逆風？斯科特，在你準備好的發言中，你提到了 FLRAA，即 10 月中旬的推出。這對結果和那裡的額外投資有何影響？

Sure, Sheila. Look, I think if we look at the sort of across the company, first and foremost, I think Textron Aviation performance will continue to be very strong in the second half. We are trying to ramp production. We expect to try to continue to ramp production through 2023 given the very strong demand environment. Supply chain headwinds are causing some disruptions there, obviously. So I think we'll probably be a little light on revenue. We'll probably miss some deliveries as things push into 2023. But I think that from a performance standpoint, from a margin standpoint, the business will continue to excel. Aftermarket remains very strong, obviously, and that's an important part of the financials in the business. So I think that, that business will be a strong performer in the second half and be really well positioned for us going into 2023 as well.

當然，希拉。看，我認為如果我們看一下整個公司，首先，我認為德事隆航空的表現將在下半年繼續非常強勁。我們正在努力提高產量。鑑於非常強勁的需求環境，我們預計將在 2023 年之前繼續增加產量。顯然，供應鏈逆風正在那裡造成一些干擾。所以我認為我們可能會對收入有所了解。隨著事情進入 2023 年，我們可能會錯過一些交付。但我認為，從業績的角度來看，從利潤的角度來看，該業務將繼續表現出色。顯然，售後市場仍然非常強勁，這是業務財務的重要組成部分。所以我認為，該業務將在下半年表現強勁，並且為我們進入 2023 年做好準備。

Industrial segment, look, our vehicle business continues to perform well. It continues to improve. First half was pretty tough in the automotive world, again, mostly supply chain and COVID shutdowns in China. I certainly expect that to improve in the second half, so we'll see better performance from Kautex in the back half of the year. So I think continued improvement will probably be towards the low end of margin just because of the first couple of quarters on the automotive side, but otherwise strong performance.

工業板塊，看，我們的汽車業務繼續表現良好。它繼續改進。上半年在汽車行業非常艱難，再次，主要是中國的供應鍊和 COVID 關閉。我當然希望下半年情況會有所改善，因此我們會在下半年看到考特斯的更好表現。因此，我認為僅由於汽車方面的前幾個季度，持續改善可能會接近利潤率的低端，但其他方面表現強勁。

Systems in the second half, we should get back -- we've had these negative revenue comparisons driven largely by the Afghanistan pullout and the impact it had on our fee-for-service business. Those comps go away in the third and fourth quarter. So I think we get back to stable, even showing some growth probably towards the end of the year, resulting from some new wins, and again, very strong performance, I think, in terms of segment profit.

下半年的系統，我們應該回來——我們已經有了這些負面的收入比較，主要是由於阿富汗撤軍及其對我們的按服務收費業務的影響。這些比賽在第三和第四節消失。因此，我認為我們會恢復穩定，甚至可能在年底前出現一些增長，這是由於一些新的勝利，而且我認為在細分利潤方面表現非常強勁。

And Bell will be the one that's a bit of a challenge. Look, we are showing really strong performance on the commercial side. The demand environment is good. We'll certainly have a lot more deliveries in the back half of the year, but they are fighting through the supply chain issues and inefficiencies. We know and fully expect we're going to see lower volume, particularly on H-1 aftermarket. There's been lower demand, lower volume in that side of the house. But the big issue we'll also have to face into is, obviously, the FLRAA program, which we continue to feel good about. Our teams are working really hard on it. But that's probably a 3- or 4-month slip from where we thought it would be when we gave our guidance originally. So obviously, we have a big team and we're going to retain that team and keep pressing on. But certainly, that will result in some more investment in our program before we get to a contract award. So that will weigh on Bell for the total year. So I think we'll probably get there on revenue, but we'll be on the lighter side of margin given that transition.

而貝爾將是一個有點挑戰的人。看，我們在商業方面表現出非常強勁的表現。需求環境良好。我們肯定會在今年下半年有更多的交付，但他們正在與供應鏈問題和低效率作鬥爭。我們知道並完全期望我們會看到銷量下降，尤其是在 H-1 售後市場。房子那邊的需求減少了，成交量也減少了。但顯然，我們還必鬚麵對的大問題是 FLRAA 計劃，我們繼續對此感覺良好。我們的團隊正在為此努力。但這可能與我們最初給出指導時的預期相差了 3 或 4 個月。所以很明顯，我們有一支龐大的團隊，我們將留住這支球隊並繼續努力。但可以肯定的是，在我們獲得合同授予之前，這將導致對我們的計劃進行更多投資。因此，這將對貝爾全年造成壓力。所以我認為我們可能會在收入方面達到目標，但考慮到這種轉變，我們的利潤率會偏低。

Maybe just a follow-up on Bell since you just mentioned it. 22% decline, how much of that -- or 23%, how much of that was due to supply chain? And how much of a decline should we expect in the second half? Is it still $3 billion feasible in terms of revenue?

既然你剛剛提到它，也許只是對貝爾的跟進。下降 22%，其中有多少——或 23%，有多少是由於供應鏈造成的？我們預計下半年會下降多少？就收入而言，30 億美元仍然可行嗎？

Yes. I think $3 billion is still feasible. And really, look, I think, split is going to be, in part, again, lower aftermarket on the military side, which is down. And that's kind of lumpy. It was actually pretty strong in the first quarter. It was pretty weak here in the second quarter, but I do think we'll see softness in that aftermarket side. But we'll see, I think, strong deliveries on the commercial side of the helicopter business that will partially offset that here in the third and fourth quarter.

是的。我認為 30 億美元仍然可行。真的，看，我認為，分裂將在一定程度上再次降低軍事方面的售後市場，這是下降的。這有點笨拙。它實際上在第一季度非常強勁。第二季度這里相當疲軟，但我確實認為我們會看到售後市場的疲軟。但我認為，我們將看到直升機業務商業方面的強勁交付，這將在第三季度和第四季度部分抵消這一點。

And our next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

It's Elizabeth. I'm on for Ron this morning. We noticed on your Finance segment slide in your presentation that the 60-plus delinquency more than doubled quarter-over-quarter from $2 million to $5 million. Is there anything to worry about there?

是伊麗莎白。今天早上我要為羅恩做準備。我們在您的演示文稿中的財務部分幻燈片上註意到，超過 60 人的拖欠金額環比增加了一倍多，從 200 萬美元增加到 500 萬美元。那裡有什麼可擔心的嗎？

No. The Finance segment has been performing very well as you can see from kind of the earnings for Finance. So we continue to see good performance out of the portfolio. Kind of things come up from time to time where things move around, but the overall portfolio is performing well.

不。財務部門的表現非常好，您可以從財務的收益中看出這一點。因此，我們繼續看到投資組合的良好表現。有時會出現一些事情發生變化，但整體投資組合表現良好。

And our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird。

Scott, your backlog continues to swell in Aviation. Can you maybe talk a little bit about just how you're thinking of managing that, ramping that production? And you're obviously probably well into 2023 when you think about kind of delivery slots. Just maybe a little color there, that would be helpful.

斯科特，你在航空領域的積壓工作繼續增加。你能談談你是如何考慮管理的，增加產量嗎？當您考慮交付時段時，您顯然可能已經進入 2023 年。只是可能有一點顏色，那會很有幫助。

Sure, Peter. Look, I mean, obviously, demand has been really strong and that backlog is continuing to grow. It gives us really good visibility, which is terrific, something we didn't have for a long time, as you know. So yes, we continue to work to be able to ramp, and we'll continue to do that through the course of the year. And obviously, we'll be needing to do that as we go into 2023. We're working really hard on hiring on our end of things to bring staff on board and working with suppliers to just to be able to meet that ramp. So we're making sure we're cautious about how we're committing to customers because we want to deliver on the dates that we'll say we'll deliver. But it's a headwind.

當然，彼得。看，我的意思是，顯然，需求非常強勁，而且積壓的訂單還在繼續增長。如您所知，它為我們提供了非常好的能見度，這太棒了，這是我們很長時間沒有的東西。所以，是的，我們將繼續努力實現增長，我們將在今年繼續這樣做。顯然，進入 2023 年，我們將需要這樣做。我們正在努力招聘我們的工作人員，並與供應商合作，以便能夠滿足這一需求。因此，我們確保我們對如何向客戶承諾持謹慎態度，因為我們希望在我們會說我們將交付的日期交付。但這是一個逆風。

And like I said, I think it will impact us this year on some deliveries that we would have originally had. That will push off into the beginning of 2023. But our teams are obviously working every day on this stuff, and we are making progress with growing our workforce in-house. And we're continuing to work with our suppliers to help them meet that ramp as well. So I don't think it's going to be easy, but clearly, I think we have line of sight to continue to increase our production rates as we go through the balance of this year and through 2023 as well.

就像我說的那樣，我認為這將對我們今年的一些交付產生影響，而這些交付是我們原本應該擁有的。這將推遲到 2023 年初。但我們的團隊顯然每天都在為此工作，而且我們在增加內部員工隊伍方面正在取得進展。我們將繼續與我們的供應商合作，幫助他們實現這一目標。所以我認為這並不容易，但很明顯，我認為隨著今年的剩餘時間以及到 2023 年，我們可以繼續提高我們的生產率。

That's great. And Frank, do you have the -- what the aftermarket growth number was in the quarter?

那太棒了。弗蘭克，你有沒有 - 本季度售後市場的增長數字是多少？

Yes. It was 18% on Aviation, 18% and 33% of the revenues.

是的。航空業佔 18%，佔收入的 18% 和 33%。

And our next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

Scott, on FLRAA, what gives you confidence that we're actually going to see a decision here in October? I mean we've seen several slips now. I guess what color can you give us around your content that we're actually going to get a decision here come the fall?

斯科特，在 FLRAA 上，是什麼讓你相信我們實際上會在 10 月份在這裡看到一個決定？我的意思是我們現在已經看到了幾個失誤。我猜你可以圍繞你的內容給我們什麼顏色，我們實際上會在秋天在這裡做出決定？

Well, obviously, we've had ongoing interaction with the acquisition side of the Army. Everything is obviously very quiet from a post-evaluation stage. The indications we get from the acquisition side are that they're going through their process, and there haven't been data requests or proposal-related activity here for some time so we know they're in their detailed evaluation phase. Secretary Bush, who we saw last week, indicated that and he has said this publicly in several forums, that he expects that they're on track to make an announcement after the AUSA conference, that's, what, the 10th, 11th or so of October. So when he says that, we're kind of surmising that means sometime in that mid-, late October time frame. So that's what we're currently trying to factor into our plans and what we need to do to make sure that our team that's assembled which are currently working, obviously, on the risk reduction program, will continue to have activity and keep progressing this thing while they finish their evaluation. But the dates I'm quoting or, again, kind of publicly, Secretary Bush has made those statements, and again there's no indication from him when we met that there's anything other than just working through their process.

嗯，很明顯，我們一直在與陸軍的採購部門進行互動。從後期評估階段來看，一切顯然都非常安靜。我們從採購方面得到的跡像是，他們正在完成他們的流程，並且已經有一段時間沒有數據請求或與提案相關的活動了，所以我們知道他們正處於詳細的評估階段。我們上週看到的布什部長表示，他已經在幾個論壇上公開表示，他希望他們有望在 AUSA 會議之後發佈公告，即 10 號、11 號左右十月。因此，當他這麼說時，我們有點猜測這意味著在 10 月中旬、下旬的某個時間範圍內。因此，這就是我們目前正試圖將其納入我們的計劃以及我們需要做的事情，以確保我們目前正在組建的團隊顯然正在開展風險降低計劃，並將繼續開展活動並繼續推進這件事在他們完成評估的同時。但是我引用的日期，或者再次公開地，布什部長已經發表了這些聲明，而且當我們見面時，他沒有任何跡象表明除了完成他們的流程之外還有其他任何事情。

Okay. Frank, a couple of questions. How do you see -- you've raised the free cash flow guidance. But how do you see working -- kind of pieces of working capital, mainly inventory and advances going from here to the rest of the year? And then any initial thoughts on pension for '23 given asset returns and discount rates? It's a pretty big income item for you guys.

好的。弗蘭克，幾個問題。你怎麼看 - 你已經提高了自由現金流指導。但是你如何看待工作——一種營運資金，主要是庫存和預付款，從這裡到今年剩餘時間？然後考慮到資產回報率和貼現率，對 23 年的養老金有什麼初步想法嗎？這對你們來說是一個相當大的收入項目。

Yes. So on the cash flow side, kind of we're consistent with where we have been. We continue to see good working capital performance. The supply chain issues and kind of potential delays in deliveries obviously could create a little bit of pressure on the inventory side, but I don't expect that to be at all significant as we go into year-end. But we obviously raised cash flow guidance, anticipating continued overall good working capital performance. And that's bolstered by strong order activity and customer deposits, frankly, both at Aviation and at Bell on the commercial side as well. So overall, good cash flow performance so far year-to-date and expect that to continue through the remainder of the year.

是的。因此，在現金流方面，我們與過去的情況保持一致。我們繼續看到良好的營運資金表現。供應鏈問題和潛在的交貨延遲顯然可能會給庫存方面帶來一點壓力，但我認為隨著我們進入年底，這一點都不重要。但我們顯然上調了現金流指引，預計整體營運資金表現將持續良好。坦率地說，在航空和貝爾的商業方面，強勁的訂單活動和客戶存款都支持了這一點。因此，總體而言，今年迄今為止良好的現金流表現，並預計這種情況將持續到今年剩餘時間。

Look, on the pension side, it's kind of too early. I guess right now if you snap the line, the interest rate impact would more than offset the impact from -- on the asset valuation side in terms of kind of creating any headwind associated with pension. So we have the potential for some additional tailwind given where things are right now as we move into '23 from pension.

看，在養老金方面，這還為時過早。我想現在如果你打破這條線，利率的影響將超過資產估值方面的影響，因為它會產生與養老金相關的任何逆風。因此，當我們從養老金進入 23 世紀時，鑑於目前的情況，我們有可能獲得一些額外的順風。

And our next question comes from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

我們的下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究公司的喬治夏皮羅。

Frank, a quick one. Why was corporate expense so low in the quarter?

弗蘭克，很快。為什麼本季度的企業開支如此之低？

That has to do with the share price impact that kind of flows through corporate for our equity-related comp programs. So unfortunately, we saw a tough overall market and tough share price performance for us in the quarter. So that impacts that number. I'd say in terms of overall for the year, kind of given where the overall market environment is, we're probably $10 million-ish better, we expect on corporate expense from an overall cost for the year. But that -- hopefully, that number for kind of -- it's not a sustainable quarterly number because of the share price performance.

這與我們與股票相關的補償計劃流經公司的股價影響有關。因此，不幸的是，我們在本季度看到了艱難的整體市場和艱難的股價表現。所以這會影響這個數字。我想說的是，就今年的整體而言，考慮到整體市場環境的情況，我們可能要好 1000 萬美元左右，我們預計公司費用會從今年的總體成本中扣除。但是，由於股價表現，希望這個數字不是一個可持續的季度數字。

Okay. And then you had also mentioned that in Bell, there was an adjustment -- unfavorable adjustment made. Can you quantify that?

好的。然後你還提到在貝爾，有一個調整——做出了不利的調整。你能量化嗎？

Yes. We don't talk about that kind of by segments, but the comment related to, we did see some unfavorable program adjustments this quarter. And when you compare that to a year ago, we had some favorable program adjustments. So the overall v between the 2 years kind of created more negative program adjustment therefore. So that's the nature of the comment. Overall expenses are down at Bell, anticipating the kind of the reduction in volume. But frankly, volume has come out a little faster than we anticipated, and so it did have some negative impact on performance.

是的。我們沒有按細分討論這種情況，但與評論相關的，我們確實看到了本季度一些不利的計劃調整。當您將其與一年前進行比較時，我們進行了一些有利的計劃調整。因此，2 年之間的總體 v 因此產生了更多的負面計劃調整。這就是評論的本質。貝爾的總體費用有所下降，預計會出現銷量下降的情況。但坦率地說，銷量比我們預期的要快一些，因此它確實對性能產生了一些負面影響。

Okay. Then for Scott, in terms of the general aviation demand, did you see any change as we went through the quarter? And is April -- I mean, is July continuing to be strong?

好的。那麼對於斯科特而言，就通用航空需求而言，您在本季度期間是否看到任何變化？是四月 - 我的意思是，七月是否繼續強勁？

George, so far, the market feels about the same. Demand is strong. It continues to be a strong business jet market in North America. In the quarter, we saw a significant pickup in international activity, particularly in our turboprop business, so strong international demand on King Airs, which certainly helps. We see some more of the corporates coming back in as corporate flight activity picks up, but still seeing a lot of new entrants into the market as well. So I think that as we look at sort of how Q2 played out and continues now in the beginning of Q3 is indicative of really strong demand across the entire portfolio of products.

喬治，到目前為止，市場的感覺大致相同。需求強勁。它仍然是北美強勁的公務機市場。在本季度，我們看到國際活動顯著回升，特別是在我們的渦輪螺旋槳飛機業務中，國際對空中國王的需求如此強勁，這當然有幫助。隨著公司航班活動的增加，我們看到更多的公司回來了，但仍然看到許多新進入者進入市場。所以我認為，當我們看到第二季度的表現以及現在在第三季度開始時的表現時，這表明整個產品組合的需求非常強勁。

And our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞波波納克。

Scott, how are you going about deciding exactly where to lay the Cessna production and deliveries for the remainder of this year and next year?

斯科特，你打算如何決定今年和明年剩餘時間裡塞斯納的生產和交付地點？

Well, I mean, for the most part, Noah, these are pretty well booked. So we know what commitments we've made to customers in terms of delivery dates. I mean as you know, unlike it was for a long time, this is a pretty well-booked business. So we know the models, we know the makes, we know the interiors and colors. I mean it's -- we know what we got to go do. That's not a problem. The challenge is to get enough people and suppliers to deliver the parts and get the stuff in there and get it produced. So it's a good problem to have but it's still a problem, right? So we're working our way through that.

好吧，我的意思是，在大多數情況下，諾亞，這些都被預訂得很好。所以我們知道我們在交貨日期方面對客戶做出了哪些承諾。我的意思是，正如你所知，與很長一段時間不同，這是一個非常好的業務。所以我們知道模型，我們知道品牌，我們知道內飾和顏色。我的意思是——我們知道我們要做什麼。這不是問題。面臨的挑戰是讓足夠的人員和供應商來交付零件，然後把東西送到那裡並生產出來。所以這是一個很好的問題，但它仍然是一個問題，對吧？所以我們正在努力解決這個問題。

And like I said, I think the performance of the business despite a lot of those interruptions and disruptions, they're largely getting it done. I do think we'll have some aircraft slip out because of some particular supplier issues that we're not -- we just know their delivery dates aren't going to get there, but it's a relatively small number of aircraft. And again, that's offset by a very strong aftermarket. The utilization of the aircraft is very high. That drives a lot of service business, which is great. And just overall, I think the business is performing really well.

就像我說的那樣，我認為儘管有很多中斷和中斷，但他們的業務表現在很大程度上已經完成了。我確實認為我們會因為一些特定的供應商問題而導致一些飛機滑出，而我們沒有——我們只知道他們的交付日期不會到達那裡，但這是相對較少的飛機數量。再一次，這被非常強大的售後市場所抵消。飛機的利用率非常高。這推動了很多服務業務，這很棒。總的來說，我認為該業務的表現非常好。

You've had bookings in excess of revenue by about 50% several quarters in a row. It's -- the backlog isn't all new build but just the implied bookings, it's running about $2 billion a quarter. Do you try to take the production system and the revenue to a place that would match some assumption of that order rate slowing down and try to get the revenue and the orders to land in the same run rate? Or do you want the orders to keep exceeding revenue and keep growing the backlog from here? Or can you just not even do that because it's customer-dependent?

您的預訂量已連續幾個季度超過收入約 50%。它是 - 積壓的不是所有的新構建，而是隱含的預訂，它每季度運行約 20 億美元。您是否嘗試將生產系統和收入帶到一個與訂單速度放緩的假設相匹配的地方，並嘗試讓收入和訂單以相同的運行速度降落？或者您是否希望訂單繼續超過收入並從這裡繼續增加積壓？或者你甚至可以不這樣做，因為它依賴於客戶？

Well, I mean, look, there's a lot of moving parts here, right? But I mean, to be honest, [you had your dream], you have a one-to-one, right? You build them and keep selling them and everything would be great. So obviously, right now, demand is stronger than that, which leads to that backlog going out further in time. That's certainly not all bad but it gives us visibility, and we'll plan a production rate. Again, we are increasing our production rates, and we'll continue to increase those rates in the next year. But look, we keep a close eye on that, right? Because in the end, this is about matching supply and demand. And I think as we've talked about before, this is a business that should run off backlog, right? I mean it's better for our customers. It's better for us. I think the whole market is in a better place when there's adequate time for people who have their aircraft to sell their aircraft and doing their upgrades and have a better flow in manufacturing and customizations.

好吧，我的意思是，看，這裡有很多活動部件，對吧？但我的意思是，說實話，[你有你的夢想]，你有一對一的，對吧？你建造它們並繼續銷售它們，一切都會很棒。所以很明顯，現在，需求比這更強勁，這導致積壓的訂單會進一步延長。這當然不全是壞事，但它給了我們可見性，我們將計劃一個生產率。同樣，我們正在提高我們的生產率，我們將在明年繼續提高這些生產率。但是看，我們會密切關注這一點，對吧？因為歸根結底，這是關於供需匹配。而且我認為正如我們之前談到的那樣，這是一項應該完成積壓的業務，對嗎？我的意思是這對我們的客戶更好。這對我們更好。我認為，當擁有飛機的人們有足夠的時間出售飛機並進行升級並在製造和定制方面有更好的流程時，整個市場處於一個更好的位置。

So look, a one-to-one is a healthy place to be. You can't build backlog forever, obviously, right? I mean you get to a point where somebody is not going to order an aircraft if it's not available for 3 or 4 years. And it's -- there's more customization and longer lead time probably in order cycle around some of the larger aircraft and smaller aircraft, so that you have that dynamic in there. But look, I think we're in a really good place. Obviously, we want to maintain a backlog, and we need to balance it where it's a good spot for both ourselves and our customers. And I think that's where we are right now. So demand continues to grow and so we will grow our production rate. But there's no objective to try to get this back to where you're not working off of the backlog. I don't think that's good for the business or the overall market.

所以看，一對一是一個健康的地方。顯然，您不能永遠建立積壓，對嗎？我的意思是，如果飛機在 3 或 4 年內都無法使用，那麼您將達到這樣的地步，即有人不會訂購飛機。而且它 - 有更多的定制和更長的交貨時間可能是為了圍繞一些較大的飛機和較小的飛機進行循環，這樣你就有了那種動態。但是看，我認為我們處在一個非常好的地方。顯然，我們希望保持積壓，並且我們需要在對我們自己和我們的客戶都有利的地方平衡它。我認為這就是我們現在所處的位置。因此需求繼續增長，因此我們將提高生產率。但是沒有目標試圖把它恢復到你沒有處理積壓的地方。我認為這對企業或整個市場都不利。

Yes, I know. I meant it more anticipating a slowdown in the order rate and therefore keeping the supply tight. But...

是的，我知道。我的意思是它更期待訂單率放緩，因此保持供應緊張。但...

Well, look, the good news, Noah, is, I mean, we're out far enough that if you do see a slowdown at some point, you can adjust that, right, and manage it if you start seeing some out. Yes, absolutely.

好吧，看，諾亞，好消息是，我的意思是，我們已經走得太遠了，如果你確實在某個時候看到減速，你可以調整它，對，如果你開始看到一些減速，就可以管理它。是的，一點沒錯。

And then just on the margin, it's another incremental that's well above that sort of longer-term framework you have in the segment. Can you give us some color on how much of that is price versus absorption versus mix? And then where do you see that for the remainder of the year?

然後就在邊緣上，這是另一個遠高於您在該細分市場中擁有的那種長期框架的增量。你能給我們一些關於價格與吸收與混合的顏色嗎？那麼你在今年剩下的時間裡在哪裡看到呢？

Well, look, I mean, I think we're still coming out of some highly disruptive times when you look at the year-over-year, right? So we saw this in the first quarter as well. Price over inflation is good and we needed that in this industry, obviously, for a long time. So I think that obviously is a positive contributor. But I still think if you think about the long term, the gross margins, the mix between original equipment and aftermarket, that this is a business that generally you should expect to see sort of that 20%, 25% conversion. We're a little stronger than that coming off some pretty extraordinary times. But as we go forward, I think that's a reasonable expectation that generally, we'll see somewhere in that 20%, 25% range.

好吧，看，我的意思是，當您查看年復一年的數據時，我認為我們仍然處於一些高度破壞性的時期，對嗎？所以我們在第一季度也看到了這一點。價格高於通脹是好的，我們在這個行業顯然需要很長時間。所以我認為這顯然是一個積極的貢獻者。但我仍然認為，如果你考慮長期、毛利率、原始設備和售後市場之間的混合，這是一項通常你應該期望看到 20%、25% 轉換的業務。在一些非常不尋常的時期，我們比那更強大。但隨著我們向前發展，我認為這是一個合理的預期，一般來說，我們會在 20% 到 25% 的範圍內看到某個地方。

And our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cai von Rumohr 和 Cowen 的對話。

So Scott, could you talk a little bit about supply chain specifically at Aviation and also labor availability in the Wichita area? You seem to have obviously done pretty well. What kind of a challenge is it? And is it getting better or getting worse?

那麼斯科特，您能否談談航空領域的供應鏈以及威奇托地區的勞動力供應情況？你顯然做得很好。這是一個什麼樣的挑戰？它是變得更好還是變得更糟？

Cai, it's kind of flat, right? I mean on the labor front, look, we are making progress. But if I look at the ramp as we think about this year going into next year, we're looking to add kind of net 100 people or so a month. So that's -- we're running hiring fairs. We are seeing people coming back into the workforce. We're working that hard. It's the entry level, bringing new people in. And obviously, you've got training and development, so there's only so fast we can do it. But we are working and like Wichita has always been a great place for us in terms of availability of labor and people that have good work ethic and stuff. So we're continuing to work that. But it's a sizable number of people that we need to bring onboard to support that ramp every month.

蔡，有點平，對吧？我的意思是在勞動力方面，看，我們正在取得進展。但是，如果我在考慮今年到明年的情況下查看坡道，我們希望每月增加 100 人左右。這就是——我們正在舉辦招聘會。我們看到人們重返工作崗位。我們正在努力工作。這是入門級，引進新人。顯然，你已經接受了培訓和發展，所以我們能做到的速度只有這麼快。但是我們正在工作，就像威奇託一樣，就勞動力的可用性和具有良好職業道德和其他東西的人而言，威奇託一直是我們的好地方。因此，我們將繼續努力。但是，我們每個月都需要吸引大量的人來支持這一增長。

So when you go to the supply chain, Cai, look, I think a lot of our smaller suppliers continue to struggle with a little COVID thing here and there. And when we have an issue and some people can't show up to work, we're big enough that we can kind of try to move people around and sort of keep things going. Not easy, but our guys do a pretty good job with that. When you've got smaller suppliers and they lose a chunk of their workforce for a week, they can -- they'll slip a week on part availability.

所以當你談到供應鏈時，蔡，我認為我們的許多小型供應商繼續在各處與一些 COVID 問題作鬥爭。當我們遇到問題並且有些人不能來上班時，我們已經足夠大，可以嘗試調動人們並讓事情繼續進行。不容易，但我們的人在這方面做得很好。當您有較小的供應商並且他們在一周內失去大量勞動力時，他們可以——他們將在零件供應方面滑倒一周。

So again, our guys do everything they can to manage those inefficiencies and do out-of-station work, and they're constantly working this. So I don't think it's getting worse, but it's -- unfortunately, we haven't seen it get dramatically better. And then you'd always have a couple of suppliers where what the lead times are, if they've had an issue or a problem. We talked last time about some resourcing out of Russia and the U.S. manufacturers. That's a discontinuity that's -- we will get caught up on some of that, but I do think it will impact us in pushing some things into 2023. But again, net of all that, I think the business is performing really well despite those challenges.

再說一次，我們的人盡其所能來管理這些低效率並進行站外工作，他們一直在努力。所以我不認為它會變得更糟，但它 - 不幸的是，我們還沒有看到它變得更好。然後你總是有幾個供應商，如果他們有問題或問題，他們的交貨時間是多少。上次我們談到了從俄羅斯和美國製造商那裡獲得的一些資源。這是一個不連續性——我們會趕上其中的一些，但我確實認為這會影響我們將一些事情推到 2023 年。但再一次，除此之外，我認為儘管存在這些挑戰，但該業務的表現非常好.

Terrific. And you've owned Pipistrel now for a little over a quarter. Could you give us some thoughts on where you plan on taking the products here? Specifically, before Pipistrel, you had some of the VTOL designs. Do you hope to take their technology and pursue that area? You have the Nuuva. You got a number of potential opportunities. Maybe give us some color in terms of where you're thinking of taking that.

了不起。而你現在擁有 Pipistrel 已經超過四分之一了。您能否就您計劃將產品帶到這裡的地方給我們一些想法？具體來說，在 Pipistrel 之前，您有一些 VTOL 設計。你希望利用他們的技術並追求那個領域嗎？你有 Nuuva。你有很多潛在的機會。也許給我們一些顏色，告訴我們你想把它放在哪裡。

Sure. Absolutely. Look, the Nuuva you just mentioned, we're very excited about that thing. They've done some good work in the past. That is one of the areas that we're adding R&D to try to accelerate that and get the aircraft -- the first aircraft flying. I think when you think about unmanned, I actually think unmanned cargo is probably something that's a reasonable expectation for acceptance in the marketplace and growth. And that Nuuva is kind of 1,000-pound cargo kind of a craft. I think the guys are working hard on that right now. And again, that's an area we've accelerated some of our investment to bring that to market.

當然。絕對地。看，你剛才提到的 Nuuva，我們對那件事感到非常興奮。他們過去做了一些很好的工作。這是我們正在增加研發以嘗試加速並獲得飛機的領域之一 - 第一架飛行的飛機。我認為當你想到無人駕駛時，我實際上認為無人駕駛貨物可能是市場接受和增長的合理預期。 Nuuva 是一種重達 1,000 磅的載貨船。我認為球員們現在正在為此努力。再說一次，這是我們加快了一些投資以將其推向市場的領域。

You talk about Nexus and sort of the eVTOL space. As we talked about, Cai, I think that when we look at our company, we feel great about our aero and fatigue and structures and flight controls guys. Obviously, these things look like, at least in our view, is sort of a [mini tool] kind of a technology. We actually do that. We have the right technical talent to pull that off.

您談到了 Nexus 和某種 eVTOL 空間。正如我們談到的，蔡，我認為當我們看到我們的公司時，我們對我們的航空和疲勞、結構和飛行控制人員感覺很好。顯然，至少在我們看來，這些東西看起來像是一種[迷你工具]技術。我們實際上是這樣做的。我們擁有合適的技術人才來實現這一目標。

Our weak spot in terms of organic capability was around the powertrain and electric propulsion. And the Pipistrel guys are fantastic at that. This is what they do. And so in that particular area on eVTOL, absolutely. We have that team now engaged in adding some resources to help our team in Wichita to deal with the battery storage, battery energy and electric propulsion trains that would support eVTOL.

我們在有機能力方面的弱點是圍繞動力系統和電力推進。 Pipistrel 傢伙在這方面非常出色。這就是他們所做的。因此，絕對是在 eVTOL 的特定區域。我們現在讓該團隊參與添加一些資源，以幫助我們在威奇託的團隊處理支持 eVTOL 的電池存儲、電池能量和電力推進列車。

So I'd say so far, while we've only owned them for a couple of months here, they've got some great current product line. You've got things like Panthera that have been sold previously under sort of experimental tickets. I think we have a great pathway for that to be a great airplane, part of our portfolio as a certified IFR aircraft. So again, areas where the teams that do that kind of work in Wichita are now helping the team in Slovenia on how do you lay out a product certification for an IFR aircraft. So, so far, I'd say the integration is really going really, really well. The Pipistrel folks have a fabulous engineering and technical base and we're just growing that. So...

所以我想說到目前為止，雖然我們在這裡只擁有它們幾個月，但它們目前擁有一些很棒的產品線。你有像 Panthera 這樣的東西，以前以某種實驗票的形式出售過。我認為我們有一條很好的途徑可以成為一架偉大的飛機，這是我們作為經認證的 IFR 飛機產品組合的一部分。同樣，在威奇托開展此類工作的團隊現在正在幫助斯洛文尼亞的團隊了解如何為 IFR 飛機制定產品認證。所以，到目前為止，我想說集成真的非常非常好。 Pipistrel 人擁有出色的工程和技術基礎，而我們正在不斷發展。所以...

And our next question comes from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

Scott, probably a question for you. Obviously, concerns out there about a slowing global economy. I was wondering if you've seen any sign of this in your Industrial division. And if this were to occur, switching over to Aviation, how would you say the setup here differs from what you saw back in, say, 2007, 2008 peak in the last cycle?

斯科特，可能是你的問題。顯然，人們對全球經濟放緩的擔憂。我想知道您是否在您的工業部門看到過這種跡象。如果發生這種情況，切換到航空，你會說這裡的設置與你在上一個週期中看到的 2007 年、2008 年的峰值有何不同？

Well, Rob, it's a great question. I mean look, we haven't seen it yet. I mean I think, we all kind of keep an eye on things and everyone sees some softness in some of the, let's call it, lower end retail sort of side of things. I think that makes a lot of sense. People are obviously putting a lot more cash into their gas tank, that takes some of that discretionary spending away. But we keep a very close eye on this in terms of the demand, particularly in some of that in the industrial world. But we're still seeing a very strong demand environment. We continue to be gated more by supply chain issues and just getting product out there. Dealer inventories are still at very, very low levels. So look, we'll continue to keep a very close eye on it obviously, but we're not seeing that change just yet.

好吧，羅伯，這是一個很好的問題。我的意思是看，我們還沒有看到它。我的意思是我認為，我們都在關註一些事情，每個人都看到一些軟弱，我們稱之為低端零售類的事情。我認為這很有意義。人們顯然在他們的油箱裡投入了更多的現金，這減少了一些可自由支配的開支。但我們在需求方面密切關注這一點，特別是在工業世界的一些需求方面。但我們仍然看到非常強勁的需求環境。我們繼續受到供應鏈問題的更多限制，只是將產品送到那裡。經銷商庫存仍處於非常非常低的水平。所以看，我們顯然會繼續密切關注它，但我們還沒有看到這種變化。

On the GA side, Robert, actually we have -- the situation today, having lived through that 2008, '09 is just a totally different dynamic, right? You had a liquidity-based financial crisis. Today, I would argue we have absolutely the opposite of that, right? The world is awash in money. And I think, again, if you go on the Aviation side, you had political overhang back in '08 and '09, right, where it was bad to have a business jet. And today, you see situation were good, better and different. The commercial airlines and the whole network of commercial travel is struggling and you see people moving and be incentivized to move into the business, aviation world. So the dynamic is just wildly different. I think the underlying economics are just totally different, right? You went from a liquidity problem to a world that is just awash in money. So totally different dynamic.

在 GA 方面，羅伯特，實際上我們有 - 今天的情況，經歷了 2008 年，09 年的情況完全不同，對吧？你有一場基於流動性的金融危機。今天，我認為我們的情況完全相反，對吧？世界充斥著金錢。而且我認為，再一次，如果你在航空方面，你在 08 年和 09 年有政治懸念，對，擁有一架公務機很糟糕。而今天，你看到的情況是好的、更好的和不同的。商業航空公司和整個商業旅行網絡都在苦苦掙扎，你會看到人們在搬家，並被激勵進入商業、航空世界。所以動態是完全不同的。我認為基礎經濟學完全不同，對吧？你從一個流動性問題變成了一個充斥著金錢的世界。所以完全不同的動態。

And our next question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Pete Skibitski。

A question on system, sorry if I missed this. But are you still expecting the $1.3 billion for the full year? And if so, which programs are going to ramp in the back half?

關於系統的問題，如果我錯過了，對不起。但您是否還在期待全年的 13 億美元？如果是這樣，哪些程序將在後半區增加？

Well, I think that we'll -- I'm not sure. It's probably going to be $ 1.2 billion or something in that, Peter. I think the -- we continue to see growth in our services business on adversary air. We're continuing to see growth in our weapons and munitions business as GBSD continues to ramp. We just mentioned an award on the XM204. It's a program we've been working on for a very long time. It's across, obviously, very important milestones here that will start to contribute growth to the business. So it's across all the other segments. The comparative that we've struggled with, really, has been this Afghanistan withdrawal. And I think you'll -- again, you'll start to see this business pick up and go back into a growth mode here in the latter part of the year driven by those programs.

好吧，我認為我們會——我不確定。彼得，這可能是 12 億美元之類的。我認為 - 我們繼續看到我們的服務業務在對抗空中的增長。隨著 GBSD 繼續增長，我們的武器和彈藥業務繼續增長。我們剛剛提到了 XM204 的一個獎項。這是一個我們已經工作了很長時間的程序。顯然，這裡跨越了非常重要的里程碑，將開始為業務增長做出貢獻。因此，它涵蓋了所有其他細分市場。實際上，我們一直在努力的比較是阿富汗撤軍。而且我認為你會 - 再次，你將開始看到這項業務在這些計劃的推動下在今年下半年回升並回到增長模式。

Okay. And just last one for me. Much smaller program, but I'm just curious if you guys are tracking the SOCOM Armed Overwatch program, just because it seems like the type of thing that could be maybe leveraged internationally, and you just got the AT-6 certified. So just wondering if you think that might be awarded this year and if it's going to be meaningful to you or not.

好的。對我來說只是最後一個。小得多的計劃，但我只是好奇你們是否正在跟踪 SOCOM 武裝監督計劃，只是因為它看起來像是可以在國際上使用的東西，而且你剛剛獲得了 AT-6 認證。所以只是想知道你是否認為今年可能會獲獎，以及它是否對你有意義。

Well, look, it would be, Peter. I think that on overwatch, our expectation is that, that could be announced any day, any week here. Again, the Air Force is in their proposal valuations, so all is quiet there, but they're going through their process. So yes, absolutely. I think that's something that will be announced in the pretty near future. But regardless, the fact that we did get the military-type certification on the AT-6 is a big deal for us on the international markets. As you know, we've already taken our first orders for that because customers expected we would get the type cert, and we have a large installed base and a very successful product in the T-6 on the trainer side of things. So an awful lot of customers have been in dialogue with us around their desire to go be able to transition from that T-6 into an AT-6 for their light attack aircraft. So I think that we see a bright future for that product now that we have the MTC. If we were to win the Armed Overwatch program, that would obviously be a huge opportunity for us. But either way, I think we feel really good about where the AT-6 is positioned going forward.

好吧，看，它會是，彼得。我認為在《守望先鋒》中，我們的期望是，它可以在這裡的任何一天、任何一周宣布。再一次，空軍正在他們的提案估值中，所以那裡一切都很安靜，但他們正在經歷他們的過程。所以是的，絕對的。我認為這將在不久的將來宣布。但無論如何，我們確實獲得了 AT-6 的軍用型認證，這對我們在國際市場上來說是一件大事。如您所知，我們已經收到了第一批訂單，因為客戶希望我們能夠獲得類型證書，而且我們在 T-6 教練機方面擁有龐大的安裝基礎和非常成功的產品。因此，非常多的客戶一直在與我們討論他們希望能夠從 T-6 轉換為輕型攻擊機的 AT-6。所以我認為，既然我們擁有 MTC，我們就看到了該產品的光明前景。如果我們要贏得武裝守望先鋒計劃，那顯然對我們來說是一個巨大的機會。但無論哪種方式，我認為我們對 AT-6 的未來定位感到非常滿意。

And our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about Bell and just kind of sort of the pace of recovery through the year, but also with H-1 ramping down, just the extent to which the EBIT level that we saw in Q2, even though that's -- there were some onetime aspect to it. To what extent does that become kind of a preview of '23, '24 as H-1 goes away and we think about the transition potentially into FLRAA?

我想知道你是否可以多談談貝爾，以及全年的複蘇步伐，以及 H-1 的下降，以及我們在第二季度看到的息稅前利潤水平的程度，即使那是 - 它有一些曾經的方面。隨著 H-1 的消失以及我們考慮過渡到 FLRAA 的可能性，這在多大程度上會成為 '23、'24 的預覽？

Well, look, I think what we saw this quarter is probably kind of where Bell is going to be here for a little while as we see those lower aftermarket military volumes. Again, we'll see commercial kicking in here with some increases on the revenue side. And obviously, a lot of this will depend on where FLRAA goes, right? So obviously, we're optimistic about the program with the Army. It's their decision. And hopefully, we'll see that happen here in that October sort of time frame because that's -- clearly, that's really important for us for the future in terms of that program moving from the investment phase, which has been now for almost a decade and moved into a real program. So...

好吧，看，我認為我們在本季度看到的情況可能是貝爾將在這裡待一段時間的地方，因為我們看到售後市場的軍售量較低。同樣，我們將看到商業在這裡開始，收入方面會有所增加。顯然，這在很大程度上取決於 FLRAA 的去向，對吧？顯然，我們對與陸軍的計劃持樂觀態度。這是他們的決定。希望我們會在 10 月份的時間框架內看到這種情況發生，因為這 - 顯然，這對我們未來非常重要，因為該計劃從投資階段轉移到現在已經將近十年並進入了一個真正的程序。所以...

Okay. And then I apologize if you mentioned it, but I think you said a few deliveries might slip out due to supply chain issues in Aviation. We thought that the target was kind of to get back to 2019 level of 206. Should we still be thinking about, let's say, 200 deliveries? And do these supply chain issues have much impact on the quarterly cadence in the second half?

好的。如果你提到它，我很抱歉，但我認為你說由於航空供應鏈問題，一些交付可能會溜走。我們認為目標是回到 2019 年的 206 水平。我們是否還應該考慮，比如說，200 次交付？而這些供應鏈問題對下半年的季度節奏影響大嗎？

Look, I think it's going to be south of the numbers you're talking about here. We don't -- we've never given the exact number. But like I said, I think you can expect that our original guide on the revenue is probably going to be short a couple of hundred million dollars. But on the margin side, it's going to be north of our guide because, again, I think our business is -- despite all these disruptions, is performing really well, very strong aftermarket. As Frank mentioned, really strong growth again in the quarter. So as you look through the balance of the year, I think Aviation will continue to perform really, really well. But for sure, the supply chain issues are going to have -- force a few aircraft out of the year.

看，我認為它會在你在這裡談論的數字的南邊。我們沒有——我們從來沒有給出確切的數字。但就像我說的，我認為你可以預期我們最初的收入指南可能會短缺幾億美元。但在利潤方面，它將超出我們的指南，因為我再次認為我們的業務是 - 儘管存在所有這些中斷，但表現非常好，非常強大的售後市場。正如弗蘭克所說，本季度再次實現強勁增長。因此，當您查看今年的餘額時，我認為航空業將繼續表現得非常非常好。但可以肯定的是，供應鏈問題將會出現——迫使一些飛機停產。

And our next question comes from the line of Robert Spingarn with Melius.

我們的下一個問題來自 Robert Spingarn 和 Melius 的台詞。

Scott, on the slippage and the deliveries that we're just talking about here, you mentioned it's a lot of small suppliers. But are engines involved at all? Is there an engine shortfall?

斯科特，關於我們剛剛在這裡談論的滑點和交付，你提到這是很多小型供應商。但是否涉及發動機？是否存在發動機短缺？

Sure.

當然。

And so is that the dominant factor? Or again, it's across the airplane?

那麼這是主導因素嗎？或者，它在飛機對面？

Well, it's across airplanes. I mean the engine impact on one particular model is probably our single biggest impact. And again, that's one where I think they're working really hard at trying to get this stuff back in. And I think the good news is the -- in that particular case, the resourcing is well defined. It's well understood. It's someone who's built the part before. I think there's a good path to getting back on track. But I just don't see that getting itself resolved and not impacting deliveries this year. But yes, those are a couple move into 2023.

嗯，它在飛機上。我的意思是引擎對一個特定模型的影響可能是我們最大的影響。再說一次，我認為他們正在努力將這些東西重新納入其中。而且我認為好消息是 - 在這種特殊情況下，資源是明確定義的。這很好理解。這是以前製造過零件的人。我認為有一條好路可以重回正軌。但我只是不認為它會自行解決並且不會影響今年的交付。但是，是的，這些是進入 2023 年的一對夫婦。

And again, financially, we're going to be fine. Again, the business is performing really, really well. The big risk for me is, frankly, I have some customers obviously that want their aircraft that are going to get pushed into next year as a result of that. But I think the path to get that resolved is quite clear. It's been worked really hard. So the other craft is a couple here -- a couple of -- it's small -- there's just a lot of suppliers with a lot of issues, and it's a bit of a fight every day. So...

再說一次，在經濟上，我們會好起來的。同樣，該業務的表現非常非常好。坦率地說，對我來說最大的風險是，我有一些客戶顯然希望他們的飛機因此而被推到明年。但我認為解決這個問題的途徑非常明確。真的很辛苦。所以這裡的其他工藝是一對——一對——很小——只有很多供應商有很多問題，每天都有點爭吵。所以...

Right. And it looks like your pricing is outpacing inflation. But if inflation continues to stay where it is or gets worse, are there any protections being built into the newer contracts?

正確的。看起來你的定價超過了通貨膨脹。但是，如果通貨膨脹繼續保持原狀或變得更糟，新合同中是否有任何保護措施？

No. Look, we -- I mean, most of our aircraft, these deals are negotiated. I mean we know what the delivery dates are and our guys have put in appropriate pricing associated with what our expectations are on the inflation side. So when we have the few deals we have that are kind of out there in time and prenegotiated and take into consideration market pricing at the time, so I think we feel like we have adequate protection and adequate incorporation of inflation going forward.

不。聽著，我們——我的意思是，我們的大部分飛機，這些交易都是通過談判達成的。我的意思是我們知道交貨日期是什麼，我們的人已經根據我們對通脹方面的預期進行了適當的定價。因此，當我們有幾筆交易及時並經過預先談判並考慮到當時的市場定價時，我認為我們覺得我們有足夠的保護和充分考慮未來的通脹。

And our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Scott, back on Textron Aviation. I mean you reported margins at 12%, the highest we've seen since 2008. And when we look back, it's really been 14, 15 years since we've seen a real light and midsized biz jet up cycle. At this point, used inventories in your favor, you're getting pricing, you're getting orders. If we continue to see sustained demand and the supply chain issues ease, are there any structural differences in the business today that could prevent margins from going back to that mid- to high teens that we saw in '07, '08 at some point? I mean not this year, clearly, but at some point.

斯科特，回到德事隆航空。我的意思是你報告的利潤率為 12%，這是我們自 2008 年以來看到的最高水平。當我們回首往事時，距離我們看到真正的輕型和中型商務噴氣式飛機週期已經過去了 14、15 年。在這一點上，使用對你有利的庫存，你得到定價，你得到訂單。如果我們繼續看到持續的需求和供應鏈問題得到緩解，那麼今天的業務是否存在任何結構性差異，可能會阻止利潤率在某個時候回到我們在 07 年和 08 年看到的中高水平？我的意思不是今年，很明顯，但在某個時候。

Look, I think the way we look at the market right now and the performance of the business and the mix of aftermarket and aircraft and all the programs, the new models, I mean, obviously, we have a very different portfolio of product today than we did back then as well. I think the cost structure of the business is really, really well managed. It's well aligned to what the volumes are. And so certainly, our expectation is that we'll continue to see positive margin progression as we go into the future. That's absolutely our plan. And look, we've -- as you said, we spent a long, hard fight from back in the 2008 days to get to where we are today. But this is kind of back to where you've got a business running the way it's supposed to be running and with a strong backlog like it's supposed to have. And the dynamics, as you mentioned, used aircraft available for sale are at record lows versus being a real problem for quite a number of years. So look, I think the business at 12% margin, this is spectacular business. And I do think we can continue to improve those margin rates as we go into future years.

看，我認為我們現在看待市場的方式以及業務表現以及售後市場和飛機的組合以及所有程序，新模型，我的意思是，很明顯，我們今天的產品組合與我們當時也這樣做了。我認為企業的成本結構管理得非常非常好。它與卷的內容非常吻合。當然，我們的期望是，隨著我們進入未來，我們將繼續看到積極的利潤率增長。這絕對是我們的計劃。看，我們已經 - 正如你所說，從 2008 年開始，我們經歷了漫長而艱苦的鬥爭，才達到今天的水平。但這有點回到您的業務以應有的方式運行並且具有應有的強大積壓的地方。正如你所提到的，可供出售的二手飛機的動態處於創紀錄的低點，而不是多年來的一個真正問題。所以看，我認為利潤率為 12% 的業務，這是一項了不起的業務。而且我確實認為，隨著我們進入未來幾年，我們可以繼續提高這些保證金率。

And with that, there are no further questions for today's call. Today's conference will be available for replay after 11:00 a.m. Eastern today through October 27. You may access the AT&T replay system at any time by dialing 1 (866) 207-1041, entering the access code 5456778. International participants may dial (402) 970-0847.

有了這個，今天的電話就沒有其他問題了。今天的會議將在東部時間今天上午 11:00 後至 10 月 27 日重播。您可以隨時撥打 1 (866) 207-1041 訪問 AT&T 重播系統，輸入訪問代碼 5456778。國際與會者可以撥打 (402 ) 970-0847。

That does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Teleconference Services. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 電話會議服務。您現在可以斷開連接。

Thanks, Brad. Thank you, everyone.

謝謝，布拉德。謝謝大家。