達信公司 (TXT) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q3 2022 Textron Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 2022 年第三季度德事隆收益發布電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，今天的通話正在錄音中。

And I would now like to turn the conference over to the Vice President of Investor Relations, Eric Salander. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Eric Salander。請繼續，先生。

Thanks, Brad, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，布拉德，大家早上好。

Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings, and also in today's press release.

在開始之前，我想提一下，我們將在今天的電話會議中討論未來的估計和期望。這些前瞻性陳述受各種風險因素的影響，這些風險因素在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件以及今天的新聞稿中都有詳細說明。

On call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO; and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

今天值班的有德事隆董事長兼首席執行官 Scott Donnelly；和我們的首席財務官弗蘭克康納。我們的收益電話演示文稿可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Revenues in the quarter were $3.1 billion, up $88 million from last year's third quarter. Segment profit in the quarter was $299 million, up $20 million from the third quarter of 2021.

該季度的收入為 31 億美元，比去年第三季度增加了 8800 萬美元。本季度的分部利潤為 2.99 億美元，比 2021 年第三季度增加了 2000 萬美元。

Income from continuing operations for the quarter was $1.06 per share compared to $0.85 per share on an adjusted basis in last year's third quarter. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $292 million in the quarter, up $21 million from the third quarter of 2021.

本季度持續經營收入為每股 1.06 美元，而去年第三季度調整後為每股 0.85 美元。本季度扣除養老金供款前的製造業現金流總額為 2.92 億美元，比 2021 年第三季度增加 2100 萬美元。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給斯科特。

Thanks, Eric, and good morning, everyone. Overall, we had a solid quarter across our manufacturing businesses with higher net operating profit, cash generation, as compared to last year's third quarter, despite ongoing supply chain and labor challenges.

謝謝，埃里克，大家早上好。總體而言，儘管供應鍊和勞動力面臨持續挑戰，但與去年第三季度相比，我們的製造業務季度表現穩健，淨營業利潤和現金產生量更高。

Aviation generated segment profit margins of 11.9%, up from 8.3% in the third quarter of 2021 on slightly lower revenues, reflecting a favorable revenue mix with higher aftermarket volume and strong pricing, net of inflation.

由於收入略有下降，航空部門的利潤率為 11.9%，高於 2021 年第三季度的 8.3%，這反映了有利的收入組合、售後市場銷量增加和定價強勁（扣除通貨膨脹）。

We continue to see solid demand across our jet and turboprop products, resulting in backlog growth of $524 million in the quarter. We delivered strong performance even as we continue to access supply chain disruptions throughout the year that have impacted production schedules.

我們繼續看到我們的噴氣式飛機和渦輪螺旋槳飛機產品需求強勁，導致本季度積壓訂單增長 5.24 億美元。儘管我們全年繼續面臨影響生產計劃的供應鏈中斷，但我們仍取得了強勁的業績。

In the quarter, we delivered 39 jets, down from 49% last year and 33 commercial turboprops, down from 35 in last year's third quarter.

本季度，我們交付了 39 架噴氣式飛機，低於去年的 49%；交付了 33 架商用渦輪螺旋槳飛機，低於去年第三季度的 35 架。

Last week at NBAA, we also announced 2 large fleet orders that included an agreement with flyExclusive for 8 XLS Gen2 aircraft, the expected deliveries in 2024, and up to 6 lounge CJ1 aircraft with deliveries expected to begin in 2025.

上週在 NBAA，我們還宣布了 2 份大型機隊訂單，其中包括與 flyExclusive 簽訂的 8 架 XLS Gen2 飛機的協議，預計在 2024 年交付，以及多達 6 架休息室 CJ1 飛機，預計將於 2025 年開始交付。

flyExclusive also exercised its option to purchase an additional 5 CJ3+ aircraft from its order earlier in the year, with deliveries expected to occur in 2024. We also had an agreement with Fly Alliance for 4 XLS Gen2 aircraft and options for an additional 16 aircraft with deliveries expected to begin in 2023.

flyExclusive 還在今年早些時候行使了從其訂單中額外購買 5 架 CJ3+ 飛機的選擇權，預計將於 2024 年交付。我們還與 Fly Alliance 就 4 架 XLS Gen2 飛機和另外 16 架飛機的交付達成了協議預計將於 2023 年開始。

At Bell, revenues were down in the quarter on lower military revenues, partially offset by higher commercial revenue. On the commercial side of Bell, we delivered 49 helicopters, up from 33 in last year's third quarter, including the 400 Bell 505 aircraft. During the quarter, we continue to see solid commercial demand across all our models.

在貝爾，由於軍事收入下降，本季度收入下降，部分被商業收入增加所抵消。在貝爾的商業方面，我們交付了 49 架直升機，高於去年第三季度的 33 架，其中包括 400 架貝爾 505 飛機。在本季度，我們繼續看到我們所有型號的商業需求強勁。

Moving to Future Vertical Lift, we continue to await a FLRAA contract award announcement from the U.S. Army. At Textron Systems, revenues were slightly lower in the quarter. During the quarter, ATAC announced a 5-year IDIQ contract with the U.S. Navy to provide chase flight services for the F-35 program. Systems was also recently awarded a contract to provide Aerosonde operational support on its fourth maritime site, the services that are expected to begin in 2023.

轉向未來垂直升降機，我們將繼續等待美國陸軍的 FLRAA 合同授予公告。在德事隆系統公司，本季度的收入略低。本季度，ATAC 宣布與美國海軍簽訂一份為期 5 年的 IDIQ 合同，為 F-35 項目提供追逐飛行服務。 Systems 最近還獲得了一份合同，為其第四個海事站點提供 Aerosonde 運營支持，該服務預計將於 2023 年開始。

Moving to Industrial. We saw higher revenues in the quarter, driven by higher volume at both Kautex and Specialized Vehicles and favorable pricing principally in Specialized Vehicles. Kautex while revenues were higher in the quarter as compared to the prior year, we continue to experience order disruptions related to the global auto OEM supply chain shortages.

轉向工業。由於考特斯和特種車輛的銷量增加以及主要是特種車輛的優惠價格，我們在本季度看到了更高的收入。考特斯雖然本季度的收入比去年同期更高，但我們繼續遇到與全球汽車 OEM 供應鏈短缺相關的訂單中斷。

Moving to Aviation. We are seeing increased order activity for our training aircraft like the Alpha Trainer, which is a low-cost pilot development platform. In the future, we will look to expand this training option to include the Velis Electro as we work to achieve an FA (inaudible).

轉向航空。我們看到我們的訓練飛機的訂單活動增加，例如 Alpha Trainer，這是一個低成本的飛行員開發平台。將來，我們將尋求擴展此培訓選項以包括 Velis Electro，因為我們努力實現 FA（聽不清）。

Also last week at NBAA, we unveiled our new Nexus eVTOL model aircraft. Our updated design reflects our ongoing investment in the underlying research and development, supporting Textron's long-term strategy to offer a family of sustainable aircraft for urban air mobility, general aviation, cargo and special mission roles.

同樣在上週的 NBAA，我們推出了新的 Nexus eVTOL 模型飛機。我們更新的設計反映了我們對基礎研發的持續投資，支持德事隆為城市空中交通、通用航空、貨運和特殊任務角色提供一系列可持續飛機的長期戰略。

To wrap up, we continue to see strong demand in our end markets, and our teams are executing well in a challenging environment.

最後，我們繼續看到終端市場的強勁需求，我們的團隊在充滿挑戰的環境中表現良好。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation.

謝謝，斯科特，大家早上好。讓我們回顧一下每個細分市場的貢獻，從德事隆航空開始。

Revenues at Textron Aviation of $1.2 billion were down $14 million from the third quarter of 2021, largely due to lower Citation jet and pre-owned volume partially offset by favorable pricing, and higher aftermarket volume.

德事隆航空的收入為 12 億美元，較 2021 年第三季度下降了 1400 萬美元，這主要是由於獎賞噴氣機和二手貨量減少，部分被有利的定價和售後市場量增加所抵消。

Segment profit was $139 million in the third quarter, up $41 million from a year ago, largely due to favorable pricing net of inflation of $31 million. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $6.4 billion.

第三季度的分部利潤為 1.39 億美元，比一年前增加了 4100 萬美元，這主要是由於扣除了 3100 萬美元的通貨膨脹後的有利定價。該部門的積壓在本季度末為 64 億美元。

Moving to Bell. Revenues were $754 million, down $15 million from last year, due to lower military revenues of $112 million, primarily in the H1 program due to lower aircraft and spares volume, offset by higher commercial revenues of $97 million.

搬到貝爾。收入為 7.54 億美元，比去年減少 1500 萬美元，原因是軍費收入減少了 1.12 億美元，主要是由於飛機和備件數量減少導致的 H1 計劃，但被增加的 9700 萬美元的商業收入所抵消。

Segment profit of $85 million was down $20 million from last year's third quarter, primarily reflecting lower volume and mix, partially offset by favorable pricing net of inflation. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $4.9 billion.

分部利潤為 8,500 萬美元，比去年第三季度減少 2,000 萬美元，主要反映了較低的銷量和產品組合，部分被扣除通貨膨脹後的有利定價所抵消。該部門的積壓在本季度末為 49 億美元。

At Textron Systems, revenues were $292 million, down $7 million from last year's third quarter. Segment profit of $37 million was down $8 million from a year ago, primarily due to lower volume and mix. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $2 billion.

德事隆系統公司的收入為 2.92 億美元，比去年第三季度減少了 700 萬美元。分部利潤為 3700 萬美元，比一年前減少了 800 萬美元，主要是由於銷量和產品組合減少。該部門的積壓在本季度末達到 20 億美元。

Industrial revenues were $849 million, up $119 million from last year's third quarter, primarily due to higher volume and mix of $95 million, and a $58 million favorable impact from pricing, principally at Specialized Vehicles, partially offset by an unfavorable impact of $34 million from foreign exchange rate fluctuations.

工業收入為 8.49 億美元，比去年第三季度增加了 1.19 億美元，主要是由於銷量和組合增加了 9500 萬美元，以及定價帶來了 5800 萬美元的有利影響，主要是特種車輛，部分被來自 3400 萬美元的不利影響所抵消。外匯匯率波動。

Segment profit of $39 million was up $16 million from the third quarter of 2021, primarily due to higher volume and mix. Textron eAviation segment revenues were $5 million and segment loss was $8 million in the quarter, which reflected the operating results of Pipistrel, and costs for initiatives related to the development of sustainable aviation solutions. Finance segment revenues were $11 million, and profit was $7 million.

分部利潤為 3900 萬美元，比 2021 年第三季度增加了 1600 萬美元，這主要是由於銷量和產品組合的增加。本季度德事隆電子航空部門收入為 500 萬美元，部門虧損為 800 萬美元，這反映了 Pipistrel 的經營業績以及與開發可持續航空解決方案相關的舉措成本。金融部門收入為 1100 萬美元，利潤為 700 萬美元。

Moving below segment profit. Corporate expenses were $14 million, and net interest expense was $21 million. Our manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $292 million in the quarter, up $21 million from last year's third quarter. Year-to-date manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $810 million.

低於分部利潤。公司費用為 1400 萬美元，淨利息費用為 2100 萬美元。本季度我們在養老金繳款前的製造業現金流為 2.92 億美元，比去年第三季度增加了 2100 萬美元。年初至今未繳納養老金的製造業現金流總計 8.1 億美元。

In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 3.1 million shares, returning $200 million in cash to shareholders. Year-to-date, share repurchases totaled $639 million. To wrap up, we now expect our full year capital expenditures will be about $375 million and the full year tax rate to be about 16%.

本季度，我們回購了約 310 萬股股票，向股東返還了 2 億美元現金。年初至今，股票回購總額為 6.39 億美元。最後，我們現在預計全年資本支出約為 3.75 億美元，全年稅率約為 16%。

For the full year, we are narrowing our earnings per share guidance to a range of $3.94 per share. Also, we are increasing our full year manufacturing cash flow before pension contribution guidance to be in a range of $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion, up $300 million from our prior outlook.

對於全年，我們將每股收益指導範圍縮小至每股 3.94 美元。此外，我們正在將養老金繳款前的全年製造業現金流量提高到 11 億美元至 12 億美元之間，比我們之前的預期增加 3 億美元。

That concludes our prepared remarks. So Brad, we can open the line for questions.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。所以布拉德，我們可以打開電話提問。

Of course. And our first question today comes from question is from the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Resources.

當然。我們今天的第一個問題來自垂直資源的 Robert Stallard。

A couple of questions from me. It may be my numbers are wrong, but it looks like revenues in Aviation and Systems were a bit lower than what we had anticipated in the third quarter. I was wondering, if you could perhaps go into a bit more detail with what you experienced in the quarter if it was supply chain issues and whether this has pushed some deliveries to the right?

我有幾個問題。可能是我的數字有誤，但航空和系統業務的收入似乎比我們在第三季度的預期要低一些。我想知道，如果是供應鏈問題，您是否可以更詳細地介紹您在本季度的經歷，以及這是否將一些交付推向了正確的方向？

Yes, Robert, I think that's safe to say. As you know, we've been sort of ramping up our production volumes through the course of the year. We continue to do that, but we have been hit by a number of supply chain challenges that have resulted in aircraft pushing out to the right. Our guys are managing through that. We'll continue to work hard to make deliveries, and we'll continue to work on that ramp as we go into 2023 as well.

是的，羅伯特，我認為可以這麼說。如您所知，我們在這一年中一直在提高產量。我們繼續這樣做，但我們受到了許多供應鏈挑戰的打擊，這些挑戰導致飛機向右推進。我們的傢伙正在通過它來管理。我們將繼續努力交付，並且在進入 2023 年時，我們也將繼續努力實現這一目標。

So again, look, I think it's a very strong demand environment, aftermarket has also been very strong, driven by high utilization. But for sure, we're continuing to see some difficulties around just getting parts. Labor ramp is, I'd say, picking up and doing reasonably well, but we've had some critical part impacts.

再說一遍，我認為這是一個非常強勁的需求環境，在高利用率的推動下，售後市場也非常強勁。但可以肯定的是，我們繼續看到在獲取零件方面存在一些困難。我想說，勞動力斜坡正在加速並做得相當不錯，但我們已經產生了一些關鍵部分的影響。

So Scott, does this impact your division-by-division guidance expectations for the year?

那麼斯科特，這是否會影響您對今年逐個部門的指導預期？

Well, as we said before on the last call, Robert, I think we expect aviation probably is going to come in about $300 million below what we originally guided. I think we're still on track to do that, I think we'll still make strong margin performance as the team has executed well. As I said it's a tough market, but with our tough situation, but they're executing very well.

好吧，正如我們之前在上次電話會議上所說的那樣，羅伯特，我認為我們預計航空業的收入可能會比我們最初的指導低 3 億美元。我認為我們仍然可以做到這一點，我認為我們仍然會在球隊表現良好的情況下取得強勁的邊際表現。正如我所說，這是一個艱難的市場，但在我們艱難的情況下，但他們執行得非常好。

So I think we'll be solid on the margin side, but a little bit light on the top line. I think at Systems, you also mentioned our system is pretty close. I mean, they're kind of flattish. We still had a little bit of impact on that year-over-year from Afghanistan. But I think as we get into the fourth quarter here, you'll start to see some slight growth in that business. And obviously, we expect that to continue into 2023.

所以我認為我們在邊際方面會很穩固，但在頂線上會有點輕。我認為在 Systems，您還提到我們的系統非常接近。我的意思是，他們有點平淡。與去年同期相比，我們仍然對阿富汗產生了一些影響。但我認為，隨著我們進入第四季度，您將開始看到該業務略有增長。顯然，我們預計這種情況將持續到 2023 年。

Okay. And then just a technical one for Frank. On the Corporate and Other big decline year-on-year, what sort of run rate should we expect on that line going forward?

好的。然後對弗蘭克來說只是一個技術問題。在企業和其他同比大幅下降的情況下，我們應該期待這條線上的運行率是多少？

Yes. I think we should probably think about $110 million or so for the year. So a higher level in the fourth quarter that we've been running at a lot of -- some of that depends, obviously, on share price, but in that zone.

是的。我認為我們可能應該考慮今年 1.1 億美元左右。因此，第四季度我們一直在運行的更高水平 - 其中一些顯然取決於股價，但在那個區域。

And our next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

Scott, can you maybe touch on your manufacturing footprint in Europe, how you feel about things there from kind of an energy perspective? And also how we should think about -- obviously, in the quarter, you had a pretty big FX impact there, how we should think about the FX impact given the euro-dollar parity at the moment?

斯科特，您能否談談您在歐洲的製造足跡，從能源的角度來看您對那裡的事物有何看法？還有我們應該如何考慮——顯然，在本季度，你在那裡產生了相當大的外匯影響，鑑於目前歐元兌美元平價，我們應該如何考慮外匯影響？

Yes, the FX has been obviously quite a drag primarily in our Kautex business. And I mean, obviously, we expect that to continue, but we'll manage our way through that. I think on the factory front, most of the impacts we've seen in that footprint in Europe have been driven really just by auto OEM issues around hitting their volumes. It hasn't been energy-related at this point.

是的，外匯顯然對我們的考特斯業務造成了很大的拖累。我的意思是，顯然，我們希望這種情況會繼續下去，但我們會設法解決這個問題。我認為在工廠方面，我們在歐洲的足跡中看到的大部分影響實際上只是由汽車 OEM 圍繞產量的問題驅動的。在這一點上，它與能源無關。

Most of what I'm reading here lately is actually the energy situation seems to be a bit better than they expected heading into the winter. So we haven't had any indications yet that anyone's going to back off on their auto manufacturing based on that energy, it's really more of these other supply chain issues that they're continuing to just be impacted.

我最近在這裡讀到的大部分內容實際上是能源狀況似乎比他們預期進入冬季要好一些。因此，我們還沒有任何跡象表明任何人會放棄基於這種能源的汽車製造，實際上更多的是其他供應鏈問題，他們正在繼續受到影響。

And look, David, as you know, we go kind of by IHS data in terms of how we think about and forecasting volumes going forward. So clearly, the year has been disappointing in terms of what was originally thought the volumes would be achieved. But right now, it's looking like IHS is probably forecasting sort of a mid- to high single-digit growth next year on top of some growth we saw this year. So that's kind of how we think about the volumes in the business, including the European footprint.

看，大衛，正如你所知，在我們如何思考和預測未來的銷量方面，我們會使用 IHS 數據。很明顯，就最初認為的產量而言，這一年令人失望。但就目前而言，IHS 似乎預測明年除了我們今年看到的一些增長之外，明年還會出現中高個位數的增長。這就是我們對業務量的看法，包括歐洲的足跡。

Got it. And Scott, I guess, your latest update on Florida and the timing you're expecting now for a decision? And what kind of incremental spending are you looking at for the rest of the year to kind of continue to carry on your effort?

知道了。斯科特，我猜，你對佛羅里達州的最新消息以及你現在期望做出決定的時機？在今年餘下的時間裡，您希望增加什麼樣的支出來繼續努力？

Sure. So look, the latest we're hearing is it's probably a November time frame. Obviously, we continue to work with customer, and we've got to make sure we've been working on this, as you guys know, for a very long time. We're not going to do anything that's other than supportive and doing the right thing for the program, making sure we keep the team together and keep making forward progress.

當然。所以看，我們聽到的最新消息可能是 11 月的時間框架。顯然，我們將繼續與客戶合作，並且我們必須確保我們一直在努力，正如你們所知，很長一段時間。除了支持和為項目做正確的事情之外，我們不會做任何事情，確保我們保持團隊團結並不斷取得進展。

Obviously, we still feel good about the program. And I think that there's obviously still some uncertainty around this. I mean, we don't know an exact date, but -- we're doing the right thing by the program, right through by the people. And while there is some uncertainty, I would say that we're pretty comfortable that we incorporated any impacts over the total year from where we were on our plan in our guidance. So I think that we're comfortable that we'll land inside that guidance despite the impacts we've seen on the far delay.

顯然，我們仍然對該計劃感到滿意。我認為這顯然仍然存在一些不確定性。我的意思是，我們不知道確切的日期，但是 - 我們正在通過程序做正確的事情，通過人們。雖然存在一些不確定性，但我會說我們很滿意我們在指導中納入了我們計劃中全年的任何影響。因此，我認為儘管我們已經看到了對遠期延遲的影響，但我們很高興我們會遵守該指南。

And our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Just a follow-up on the last point, Scott. How do you think about Bell without a FLRAA win? What would sort of the scenarios look like for Bell without FLRAA or potentially FARA? And -- maybe can you remind us of the R&D investment impact for FLRAA associated with 2022?

只是對最後一點的跟進，斯科特。您如何看待沒有 FLRAA 勝利的貝爾？如果沒有 FLRAA 或潛在的 FARA，Bell 的情景會是什麼樣子？而且——也許你能提醒我們與 2022 年相關的 FLRAA 的研發投資影響嗎？

So I don't think about Bell without FLRAA. Look, I think we're in a good place. We will let the performance of our products stand and just kind of work through the process. Obviously, the army is going through a very, very rigorous process here. So we'll bear with them and let this thing play out. But we're pretty bullish on that program, and we'll leave it at that, I suppose.

所以我不考慮沒有 FLRAA 的貝爾。看，我認為我們在一個好地方。我們將讓我們的產品性能保持不變，並在整個過程中發揮作用。顯然，軍隊在這裡正在經歷一個非常非常嚴格的過程。所以我們會容忍他們，讓這件事發生。但我們非常看好該計劃，我想我們將把它留在那裡。

In 2022, the R&D has actually been down a little bit because we've had more of the cost share activity, both on the FLRAA program and the FARA program. So even with some of the impacts that we've seen on some of the delays, I think we'll be fine there. We're working our way through it. Clearly, the FARA program is going to continue to extend, and like I say, hopefully, here compared to all the years we've been working on this thing for delays relatively short period of time. So...

2022 年，研發實際上有所下降，因為我們在 FLRAA 計劃和 FARA 計劃上都有更多的成本分攤活動。因此，即使我們在某些延誤上看到了一些影響，我認為我們在那裡會沒事的。我們正在努力解決它。顯然，FARA 計劃將繼續擴展，就像我說的那樣，希望與我們多年來一直在做這件事的時間相比，延遲相對較短。所以...

Great. No, that's helpful. And then I'm glad you don't think about Bell without FLRAA. But switching gears to Aviation. When we look at year-to-date deliveries there light, you mentioned supply chain. How long does that linger? And how do we think about jet deliveries for '22 in total? And does it linger into '23?

偉大的。不，這很有幫助。然後我很高興你不會想到沒有 FLRAA 的貝爾。但是切換到航空。當我們看到年初至今的交貨量時，您提到了供應鏈。這會持續多久？我們如何看待 22 年的噴氣式飛機交付總量？它會持續到 23 年嗎？

Sure. Look, it's a good question. I think the way we're starting to lay out the year, as you know, we've been planning on ramping production all through the year. We've been achieving that. I mean we have been increasing the number of hours and the labor and the activity in the factory, we're clearly not going to get to the number of jets that we were originally hoping to based on some of these delays.

當然。看，這是個好問題。我認為我們開始計劃這一年的方式，如你所知，我們一直在計劃全年增加產量。我們一直在實現這一目標。我的意思是，我們一直在增加工廠的工時、勞動力和活動，我們顯然不會達到我們最初希望基於其中一些延誤的噴氣式飛機數量。

But we're going to keep that ramping activity going through 2023. So when you look at the incremental volumes that we had in 2022, we're not ready to guide '23 yet, but it's not unreasonable to expect that we would see a similar increase in volumes in 2023 from what we saw from the '21 to '22 time frame.

但我們將在 2023 年保持這種不斷增加的活動。因此，當您查看我們在 2022 年的增量時，我們還沒有準備好指導 23 年，但期望我們會看到與我們從 21 年到 22 年的時間框架相比，2023 年的交易量也有類似的增長。

And our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I guess just to follow-up on that question, Scott. When you think about the strong backlog that you've been able to build here, and you think about where deliveries might ultimately go, I mean, I assume the aim would be to be back to kind of the 200-plus level maybe in 2023, kind of the level that had been anticipated for 2022 before the supply chain issues.

我想只是為了跟進這個問題，斯科特。當您考慮到您能夠在這裡建立的強大積壓，並且您考慮交付最終可能會去哪裡時，我的意思是，我認為目標可能是在 2023 年回到 200 多個水平，這是在供應鏈問題之前預計的 2022 年的水平。

And then when you think about moving higher from there, would it make more sense to kind of focus on keeping that backlog, maybe expanding margins even a little further from this low double-digit range and having a more steady delivery pace as we head toward mid-decade?

然後，當您考慮從那裡提高時，專注於保持積壓是否更有意義，也許將利潤率從這個較低的兩位數範圍擴大一點，並在我們走向更穩定的交付速度十年中期？

Well, first of all, Seth, I think your thoughts on volume here in the near-term are correct. We obviously would like to have had more in '22, but it's probably reasonable to think that what we hope to get in '22 will be there by the end of '23. So we should back to that kind of 200-ish number in the '23 time frame.

好吧，首先，賽斯，我認為你對近期成交量的看法是正確的。我們顯然希望在 22 年擁有更多，但我們可以合理地認為，我們希望在 22 年獲得的東西將在 23 年底實現。所以我們應該在 23 年的時間框架內回到那種 200 左右的數字。

Now beyond that, look, we'll continue to watch demand in the marketplace. It continues to be strong. As long as we see that kind of growing backlog in a strong environment, then we'll continue that ramp. But it's going to be a slow steady ramp, right? I mean, we certainly like and we think it's better for -- I think we've talked about it's better for our company, it's better for our customers, it's better for the whole market to be operating with better visibility around the backlog that's out there in that 18-month kind of time frame.

現在除此之外，看，我們將繼續觀察市場需求。它繼續強勁。只要我們在強大的環境中看到這種不斷增長的積壓，我們就會繼續這種增長。但這將是一個緩慢而穩定的斜坡，對吧？我的意思是，我們當然喜歡並且我們認為這對--我認為我們已經談到它對我們的公司更好，對我們的客戶更好，對整個市場來說更好的是更好地了解積壓的待辦事項。在那個 18 個月的時間範圍內。

So right now, the demand continues to be very robust. We're seeing a lot of order activity that's out in that 18-plus sort of time line. And so we'll match production as we tend to meet that if the market starts to ease back or slow down, then obviously, we can taper off on the ramp. But I certainly don't see that being a case going through 2023, considering where the backlog is and where the demand environment is. So...

所以現在，需求仍然非常強勁。我們看到很多訂單活動都出現在 18 多條時間線上。因此，如果市場開始回落或放緩，我們將匹配生產，因為我們傾向於滿足這一點，那麼顯然，我們可以在坡道上逐漸減少。但考慮到積壓在哪里以及需求環境在哪裡，我當然不認為這種情況會持續到 2023 年。所以...

Okay. Great. And just a follow-up, very strong cash this year. And when you think about next year, other than what we might assume on the P&L, are there any things you'd note about cash flow, either headwinds or tailwinds heading into '23?

好的。偉大的。只是今年的後續，非常強勁的現金。當您考慮明年時，除了我們對損益表的假設之外，您是否會注意到關於現金流的任何事情，無論是進入 23 年的逆風還是順風？

I think no, not really. We've -- obviously, we've had good working capital management again this year just like last year. We certainly benefited again from strong customer activity and deposits. And so -- but there's nothing from a kind of working capital or other cash impacts that are kind of out of line with where we've been.

我認為不，不是真的。我們 - 顯然，我們今年再次進行了良好的營運資金管理，就像去年一樣。我們當然再次受益於強勁的客戶活動和存款。所以 - 但是沒有任何一種營運資金或其他現金影響與我們所處的位置不一致。

And our next question comes from the line of Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alembic Global 的 Pete Skibitski。

Scott, I just wanted to beat the dead horse a little bit on Aviation, just because even at a little bit of a lower guidance number there, it still implies a pretty good hockey stick in the fourth quarter. So I'm just wondering kind of on the risk assessment front, do you have the engines in-house already that you need in the parts and the labor trained up? Or is there still some risk to that number, do you think given the ramp?

斯科特，我只是想在航空方面稍微擊敗死馬，因為即使那裡的指導數字稍微低一點，它仍然意味著第四節的曲棍球棒相當不錯。因此，我只是想知道在風險評估方面，您是否已經擁有零件所需的內部發動機和訓練有素的勞動力？或者這個數字還有一些風險，你認為考慮到坡道嗎？

Well, look, I'd say there's always some risk to the number, right? But I think we're -- obviously, our guys are working the heck out of this every day. They're tracking all the critical components. So I think kind of that number right, I gave you guys were probably a few hundred million under our original guide is still holding. Is there some risk to it, yes? I mean, one of the challenges is that we you get suppliers as that pop up every day. I think we're in good shape in terms of labor and the things we can control.

好吧，聽著，我會說這個數字總是有風險的，對吧？但我認為我們 - 顯然，我們的球員每天都在努力解決這個問題。他們正在跟踪所有關鍵組件。所以我覺得那個數字對的，我給你們的可能是幾億，我們原來的指導下仍然持有。有什麼風險，是嗎？我的意思是，挑戰之一是我們每天都會有供應商出現。我認為我們在勞動力和我們可以控制的事情方面處於良好狀態。

Stuff pops up, we get all over it. But I think we've got a pretty good shot at getting to the number that we told you. And if we miss something, it'd be a few aircraft around a particular part that pops up between here and there. So the guys are working every day. I think it's a good guide. And could there be some risk in the environment we live in, Sure. But I think we're -- our folks are all over it.

東西突然出現，我們得到了它。但我認為我們有很好的機會達到我們告訴你的數字。如果我們遺漏了什麼，就會有幾架飛機圍繞某個特定部分突然出現。所以小伙伴們每天都在工作。我認為這是一個很好的指南。當然，我們生活的環境中是否存在一些風險。但我認為我們是——我們的人都在這方面。

Okay. No, I appreciate it. And just one follow-up on the same segment. Kind of post NBAA, how are you guys feeling about kind of the health of your customer base at Aviation? How the conversations go and obviously, I'm sure the macro backdrop was part of the conversations down there. I'm just wondering kind of what your net assessment is.

好的。不，我很感激。並且只是對同一細分市場的一項後續行動。 NBAA 後，你們覺得你們航空客戶群的健康狀況如何？談話是如何進行的，很明顯，我確信宏觀背景是那裡談話的一部分。我只是想知道你的淨評估是什麼。

It's very positive. I think that we're continuing to see some new people coming into the market. We're seeing some of our historical corporate customers that are doing fleet refreshes. They're putting aircraft orders in, which obviously are deliveries are ways out, but they're refreshing their fleets. Obviously, the level of flight activity in the industry continues to have kind of charter and fractional customers very motivated to bring additional assets online.

這是非常積極的。我認為我們將繼續看到一些新人進入市場。我們看到我們的一些歷史企業客戶正在進行車隊更新。他們正在下訂單，這顯然是交付的出路，但他們正在更新他們的機隊。顯然，該行業的飛行活動水平繼續使包機和零星客戶非常有動力在線上帶來額外的資產。

So I would say, all in all, it's really strong, Pete. And again, I also would put against the backdrop of hardly a bubble, right? I mean, we're talking about jet delivery volumes that are kind of back to even still maybe below historical norms. So I don't think there's this euphoric bubble burst, but people are refreshing fleets. They're investing in their aircraft. It's -- we don't see this big pull in, right? It's just the market is strong, and volume is strong, which is critical.

所以我想說，總而言之，它真的很強大，Pete。再說一次，我也會把它放在幾乎沒有泡沫的背景下，對吧？我的意思是，我們正在談論的噴氣式飛機交付量有點回到甚至可能低於歷史標準。所以我不認為有這種欣快的泡沫破滅，但人們正在刷新艦隊。他們正在投資他們的飛機。這是 - 我們沒有看到這麼大的吸引力，對吧？只是市場強勁，成交量強勁，這很關鍵。

I was going to say your exposure to Europe is still fairly limited like it used to be. I think it was only, I don't know, 20%, 25% of your citation volume. Is that still the case?

我要說的是，你對歐洲的接觸仍然像以前一樣有限。我想這只是，我不知道，你引用量的 20%，25%。還是這樣嗎？

Yes, it is. I mean, look, we're seeing kind of relatively normal from what we've seen historically. Jets are probably 80% roughly U.S., 20% international. The King Air turboprop lines are typically the other way around, and that's what we're seeing. We're seeing maybe like 40% U.S., 60% international.

是的。我的意思是，看，從歷史上看，我們看到的是一種相對正常的情況。噴氣式飛機大概 80% 是美國的，20% 是國際的。 King Air 渦輪螺旋槳飛機的生產線通常是相反的，這就是我們所看到的。我們看到可能有 40% 來自美國，60% 來自國際。

So in terms of -- the good news here is that demand across pretty much all the models is strong. And we're seeing mix in terms of international versus domestic fleet operations that are kind of what we've normally seen historically.

所以就 - 這裡的好消息是幾乎所有模型的需求都很強勁。我們看到了國際和國內機隊運營的混合，這是我們在歷史上通常看到的。

And our next question comes from the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的諾亞波波納克。

Sorry, Scott, so what are you now planning for 2022 assessment of jet units?

抱歉，斯科特，那麼您現在計劃 2022 年對噴氣機部隊的評估是什麼？

Look, no, we never give a specific number. I think from the top line, you're looking at probably about $300 million off of our original guide. And virtually, all of that is jet deliveries really. So...

看，不，我們從不給出具體的數字。我認為從最重要的角度來看，您可能會從我們的原始指南中獲得大約 3 億美元。實際上，所有這些都是噴氣式飛機交付。所以...

Okay. Okay. So we can back into that. And then you're saying -- do I have it correct that you're saying think about that growth rate in units that, that implies for '22 repeating in '23 approximately?

好的。好的。所以我們可以回到那個。然後你說——我說的是否正確，你說的是考慮單位增長率，這意味著 '22 大約在 23 年重複？

Yes, that's good.

是的，那很棒。

Okay. And then how much visibility do you have beyond '23?

好的。然後你在 23 年之後有多少知名度？

Well, pretty good visibility. I mean it's -- most of the aircraft, I mean, we have larger aircraft, frankly, are out in 2025 right now, and the mix of lighter and midsize are certainly through '23, well into '24 towards the end of '24. So this backlog is obviously very helpful to us in terms of having the kind of the visibility we need to run the operations. And obviously, we'd like to do a little bit more efficiently without some of the supply chain challenges, but I think we're in a pretty good place as we've had in a very long time, obviously, in terms of the visibility of the business.

不錯，能見度不錯。我的意思是 - 大多數飛機，我的意思是，坦率地說，我們有更大的飛機，現在在 2025 年推出，而輕型和中型飛機的混合肯定會在 23 年，直到 24 年年底進入 24 年.因此，就獲得運行操作所需的可見性而言，此積壓工作顯然對我們非常有幫助。顯然，我們希望在沒有一些供應鏈挑戰的情況下更有效地工作，但我認為我們處於一個相當不錯的位置，很明顯，就業務的可見性。

Okay. So I guess that's all positive and really kind of major structural change in the business. But where the bookings are running if they hang around in the zone that they're in now, you'd continue to run the bookings pretty far in excess of the revenue and just -- which would build the backlog even further. So when do you get to the point where that's going too far, and customers are going elsewhere or have to way too long? Or is it just with the macro level supply chain bottlenecks, everybody is in the same boat. And every OEM kind of asked to do the same thing.

好的。所以我想這都是積極的，是業務中真正的重大結構性變化。但是，如果他們在他們現在所在的區域徘徊，那麼預訂在哪裡運行，你會繼續運行遠遠超過收入的預訂，而且只是 - 這將進一步增加積壓。那麼，您什麼時候會走得太遠，客戶會去別處或必須等太久？還是只是宏觀層面的供應鏈瓶頸，大家都在同一條船上。每個 OEM 都要求做同樣的事情。

No, I think you just said it, everybody is in the same boat, right? I mean, so I don't know where that equilibrium point is, right, when it gets out too far, but this is not -- there's not like some other supplier OEM that says, "Hey, I've got aircraft sitting around." So I think this is an industry dynamic as opposed to just being unique to us. I mean, obviously, I feel great about how our guys performed from a profitability standpoint.

不，我想你剛剛說過，每個人都在同一條船上，對吧？我的意思是，所以我不知道那個平衡點在哪裡，對，當它跑得太遠時，但事實並非如此——不像其他一些供應商 OEM 會說，“嘿，我周圍有飛機。”所以我認為這是一種行業動態，而不僅僅是我們獨有的。我的意思是，很明顯，從盈利能力的角度來看，我對我們的球員的表現感覺很好。

I mean, look, this business is in fabulous condition, right? It's got great backlog, good visibility. It's generating very strong margins. It's generating very strong cash flow. I don't think there's a whole lot not. Look, every day is hard with these supply chain issues and stuff like that. But our guys are fighting through it every day.

我的意思是，看，這家公司的狀況非常好，對吧？它有很大的積壓，良好的知名度。它產生了非常強勁的利潤。它產生了非常強勁的現金流。我不認為有很多沒有。看，這些供應鏈問題和諸如此類的事情每天都很艱難。但是我們的傢伙每天都在與它作鬥爭。

I mean I'm not sure we'll be apologetic for these kind of margins and this kind of cash and strong backlog. And the guys I'm not sure what else I would ask them to do. They're driving our heart every day and performing really, really well. So...

我的意思是我不確定我們是否會為這種利潤率、這種現金和大量積壓而道歉。我不確定我還會要求他們做什麼。他們每天都在推動我們的心，並且表現得非常非常好。所以...

Great. Just lastly on price in the business. Are you actually now increasing price more in terms of a year-over-year rate of change than you were 12 to 18 months ago when the market first strengthened? I get the sense that the price increases early in this strong demand environment weren't that big because you wanted to build the backlog and now that you've done so you can actually accelerate the pricing. Is that a fair assessment?

偉大的。最後是業務價格。與 12 到 18 個月前市場首次走強時相比，您現在的價格上漲幅度是否比去年同期變化率更高？我的感覺是，在這種強勁的需求環境中，早期的價格上漲並沒有那麼大，因為你想建立積壓，現在你已經完成了，所以你實際上可以加速定價。這是一個公平的評價嗎？

Well, I guess, yes, I -- we're not sure, we would do -- I don't do the first derivative on the pricing every day, but look, I think for sure, this market has changed over the last 18 months or so as it's gotten stronger and competitive market, obviously. So pricing and what competition is doing matters.

好吧，我想，是的，我——我們不確定，我們會做——我不會每天都對定價進行一階導數，但是看，我認為這個市場在過去發生了變化18 個月左右，因為它變得更強大和競爭激烈的市場，顯然。所以定價和競爭正在做什麼很重要。

But I think everybody, I mean, the whole industry has seen stronger pricing. So again, we look at this kind of on a model-by-model basis and what's going on with the competitive environment and it's not a -- I'm not sure I can give you a simple answer on the slope of the curve, but it's strong.

但我認為每個人，我的意思是，整個行業都看到了更強的定價。再說一次，我們逐個模型地研究這種情況，以及競爭環境發生了什麼，這不是——我不確定我能否在曲線的斜率上給你一個簡單的答案，但它很強大。

And I would say we continue to obviously very much focus on making sure we're getting price in advance of inflation. We think about this a lot, when you start thinking about -- obviously, we're taking contracts on aircraft that are in '23 and '24 and '25. And so you've got to make appropriate assumptions in terms of inflation between here and there, and make sure pricing accordingly and I think that we are.

我想說的是，我們顯然會繼續非常關注確保我們在通脹之前獲得價格。當您開始考慮時，我們會考慮很多 - 顯然，我們正在接受 23 年、24 年和 25 年的飛機合同。因此，您必須就各地之間的通貨膨脹做出適當的假設，並確保相應地定價，我認為我們是。

And our next question comes from the line of Peter Arment with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird。

Scott, you've been talking about supply chain disruptions, obviously, all year. And you've had a lot of -- you have a ton of experience in engines. Is engines for you still in Aviation, the biggest shortage? Or are there other components like chips or other things that you would call out? And just maybe any color you could provide on the engine shortfalls?

斯科特，很明顯，你一整年都在談論供應鏈中斷。而且你有很多 - 你在引擎方面有很多經驗。您的發動機是否仍然在航空領域，最大的短缺？或者是否還有其他組件，例如芯片或其他您會提到的東西？也許您可以為引擎不足提供任何顏色？

Peter, it isn't, I mean, look, engines are strained. And as everybody knows, there's one particular model, it's important to us that had -- had an issue that kind of stems back to these Russian Ukrainian sanctions, but I think that's in recovery mode. So we feel good about that bouncing back.

彼得，不是，我的意思是，看，引擎已經緊張了。眾所周知，有一種特殊的模式，對我們來說很重要 - 有一個問題可以追溯到這些俄羅斯烏克蘭的製裁，但我認為這是在恢復模式。所以我們對反彈感覺很好。

But I think the frustrating part for our folks, Peter is just a sort of everywhere, right? Stuff happens. It's -- I'd say that overall, our avionic suppliers have done a really nice job. Garmin is critical to us. They've been able to meet deliveries. So they're managing the way. That would be the area probably most highly concentrated in terms of semiconductor risks. So I think they've done a nice job.

但我認為對我們這些人來說令人沮喪的是，彼得無處不在，對吧？事情發生了。這是 - 我想說，總的來說，我們的航空電子供應商做得非常好。 Garmin 對我們至關重要。他們已經能夠滿足交貨要求。所以他們正在管理道路。就半導體風險而言，這可能是最集中的領域。所以我認為他們做得很好。

But it's -- this is the problem in this business, right? Every part is important. So it's -- there are certainly some things like the engine was an issue. I think that will resolve itself here in the next 6, 9 months or so. But the things pop up every week. It's just where we live in. And our guys are kind of used to it, they just keep working it and they go manage each thing that pops up.

但這是——這就是這個行業的問題，對吧？每個部分都很重要。所以它 - 肯定有一些事情，比如引擎是一個問題。我認為這將在未來 6、9 個月左右自行解決。但事情每週都會出現。這就是我們住的地方。我們的人已經習慣了，他們只是繼續工作，他們去管理每一個彈出的東西。

That's helpful color. And just, Frank, just quickly, could you tell us what the aftermarket was up in the quarter? And any comments on pricing?

這是有用的顏色。只是，弗蘭克，很快，你能告訴我們本季度售後市場的情況嗎？對定價有何評論？

Yes. Aftermarket remained strong. It was up 18% year-over-year, 37% of total volume for the quarter. So really kind of continue, as Scott said, to see strong flying activity and therefore, strong volumes in the business.

是的。售後市場依然強勁。同比增長 18%，佔本季度總銷量的 37%。正如斯科特所說，因此真的會繼續看到強勁的飛行活動，因此業務量也很大。

And our next question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cai von Rumohr 和 Cowen 的對話。

Yes. So how much of the goodness in cash flow, that $300 million came from deposits on aircraft? And thinking about next year, you've had such a big crusher from that source this year. How should we think about cash flow, if book-to-bill goes back to about 1.0?

是的。那麼，這 3 億美元的現金流有多少來自飛機上的存款呢？想想明年，今年你從那個來源得到了這麼大的破碎機。如果賬面比回到 1.0 左右，我們應該如何看待現金流？

Well, we're not going to kind of break out separately the cash items. I mean offsetting the deposit activity as we have seen a little bit of inventory growth as we've had these supply chain issues, and we've seen some kind of slowdown in our ability to deliver. So there has been some offset.

好吧，我們不打算單獨列出現金項目。我的意思是抵消存款活動，因為我們已經看到一些庫存增長，因為我們遇到了這些供應鏈問題，並且我們已經看到我們的交付能力有所放緩。所以出現了一些抵消。

But kind of with a book-to-bill above 1 and strong commercial -- and Aviation, strong commercial demand at Bell. We benefited from that. Frankly, we benefited also from the strong cash performance on the military programs at Bell. So it hasn't been all that.

但是有一種高於 1 的訂單到賬單和強大的商業 - 和航空，貝爾的強大商業需求。我們從中受益。坦率地說，我們也受益於貝爾軍事項目的強勁現金表現。所以一切都不是這樣。

We've talked in the past about kind of generally the business over time wants to be around 1:1 cash flow to profitability, right? So we certainly have benefited kind of this year and last year from strong cash performance relative to that. And Cai, it will depend on lots of factor's kind of when we get to a slower kind of booking rate, but it will migrate back towards that 1:1 as we do that.

我們過去曾討論過，隨著時間的推移，企業通常希望現金流與盈利能力的比例約為 1:1，對吧？因此，我們今年和去年肯定從相對於此的強勁現金表現中受益。 Cai，當我們達到較慢的預訂率時，這將取決於很多因素，但當我們這樣做時，它將重新回到 1:1。

Look, I guess I would emphasize that we're conscious of this, right? I mean, I think that you enjoy a benefit here with strong commercial deposits at Aviation and some of you also in Bell's commercial business, which has had also seen very strong demand here. But you don't change anything else to do in terms of managing the business and making sure that you're fundamentally managing working capital and CapEx and all those things. So -- for sure, you're getting a benefit of this, but I think we're delivering well over 1:1, and that's because the businesses are doing a good job of managing their cash and then enjoying the benefits of customer positive activity on top of that. So that's the nature of where we are right now.

看，我想我會強調我們意識到這一點，對吧？我的意思是，我認為你們在這裡受益於航空業的強大商業存款，你們中的一些人還從事貝爾的商業業務，這裡的需求也非常強勁。但是在管理業務和確保從根本上管理營運資金和資本支出以及所有這些事情方面，你不會改變任何其他事情要做。所以——當然，你會從中受益，但我認為我們的交付比例遠遠超過 1:1，這是因為企業在管理現金方面做得很好，然後享受客戶積極的好處在此之上的活動。這就是我們現在所處的性質。

Terrific. And given this extra cash goodness, how are you thinking about deploying the cash?

了不起。鑑於這種額外的現金優勢，您如何考慮部署現金？

Well, Sam, as we talked about, we -- as we said, we've been an active repurchaser of stock. We bought about $640 million year-to-date. That's up from last year's year-to-date number. Last year, we ended up kind of low $900 million of share repurchase. And so we would expect similar types of rates kind of for the year and at least as we sit here today on a go-forward basis. We've been buying back about 5% of our stock on an annual basis. And so kind of that type of rate is a good rate to be thinking about.

好吧，山姆，正如我們所說，我們 - 正如我們所說，我們一直是股票的積極回購者。年初至今，我們購買了大約 6.4 億美元。這高於去年年初至今的數字。去年，我們最終進行了 9 億美元的低額股票回購。因此，我們預計今年會出現類似類型的利率，至少在我們今天坐在這裡的情況下是這樣。我們每年回購大約 5% 的股票。所以這種類型的利率是一個值得考慮的好利率。

And our next question comes from the line of Rob Spingarn with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Rob Spingarn。

Just wanted to turn to a couple of the other segments for a moment. But in the past, you've talked about systems being a low double-digit margin business, but it's been outperforming that last year and this year. So can we talk a little bit about the trend there? Is it going to stay more in the mid-teens?

只是想暫時轉向其他幾個部分。但在過去，您曾談到系統是一項低兩位數利潤率的業務，但它在去年和今年的表現都優於後者。那麼我們能談談那裡的趨勢嗎？它會停留在青少年中期嗎？

Yes. Look, it's a good question. And again, we're not quite ready to guide for next year, but I think that business performs really well. I mean it's always has some components of it, for instance, I think you'll see this everywhere, right, where there's fixed price government contracts, you can't reprice those. So there will be some pressure on inflation on that front. But there's also a constant flow of new programs. And I think overall strong execution, which has helped us deliver strong double-digit margins, and I would expect that to continue.

是的。看，這是個好問題。再說一次，我們還沒有準備好為明年提供指導，但我認為業務表現非常好。我的意思是它總是有它的一些組成部分，例如，我認為你會在任何地方看到這種情況，對，有固定價格的政府合同，你不能重新定價。因此，這方面的通脹將面臨一些壓力。但也有源源不斷的新程序。我認為整體強勁的執行力幫助我們實現了強勁的兩位數利潤率，我預計這種情況會繼續下去。

Okay. And Scott, sticking with these other businesses, Industrial was clearly strong, and I think you called out specialty vehicles. Could we talk about the forward trends there?

好的。而斯科特，堅持這些其他業務，工業顯然很強大，我認為你呼籲特種車輛。我們能談談那裡的前進趨勢嗎？

Well, sure. I think that the Specialized Vehicle business is doing well. There's the -- obviously, there were some segments of that business that took real hits through the COVID period around support equipment and things like that, that are seeing robust order activity come back into those markets as well, also achieving strong pricing our golf and specialized PTVs and whatnot is very strong. I think we have a great product lineup, and that team has done a nice job.

嗯，當然。我認為特種車輛業務做得很好。顯然，該業務的某些部分在 COVID 期間圍繞支持設備和類似的東西受到了真正的打擊，這些市場也看到了強勁的訂單活動，也實現了我們的高爾夫和強大的定價。專業的 PTV 和諸如此類的東西非常強大。我認為我們有一個很棒的產品陣容，而且那個團隊做得很好。

Obviously, in that business, we also see supply chain challenges all the time, but the teams work through it, and I think we'll continue to see that on a steady improvement.

顯然，在該業務中，我們也一直看到供應鏈挑戰，但團隊正在努力克服它，我認為我們將繼續看到這一點穩步改善。

And you haven't really seen any evidence of this recession of fear hitting that business. I would imagine that business is somewhat sensitive.

而且您還沒有真正看到任何證據表明這種恐懼衰退會打擊該業務。我想業務是有些敏感的。

Some are more sensitive than others. So -- but absolutely, I think particularly when you look at the powersports world, we keep a very close eye on that. Inventory levels are still very much lower than they typically are in those channels because of supply chain challenges. So I think you need to get those to a healthy level.

有些人比其他人更敏感。所以 - 但絕對是，我認為特別是當您查看動力運動世界時，我們會密切關注這一點。由於供應鏈的挑戰，庫存水平仍然比這些渠道中的通常水平低得多。所以我認為你需要讓這些達到健康的水平。

But absolutely, we watch it very, very carefully because I think that, that particular piece, which is a relatively small piece for us, obviously, is very recession sensitive. But I think when you look at a lot of the municipal stuff and ground support equipment, golf -- these things have historically been pretty resilient in terms of how they perform even in a recessionary period. And I think we're well positioned in those markets, which are a much larger piece of the business for us.

但絕對是，我們非常非常仔細地觀察它，因為我認為，對我們來說是相對較小的一塊，顯然對經濟衰退非常敏感。但我認為，當你看到很多市政用品和地面支持設備時，高爾夫——這些東西從歷史上看，即使在經濟衰退時期，它們的表現也相當有彈性。我認為我們在這些市場中處於有利地位，這對我們來說是更大的業務。

And our next question comes from the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

我們的下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究公司的喬治夏皮羅。

Yes. Scott, on the supply chain issues, it seems like it's affecting your business more than, say, like Gulfstream at the high end. Is there any differentiation you can say as to why?

是的。斯科特，在供應鏈問題上，它對您的業務的影響似乎超過了高端的灣流。你有什麼區別可以說為什麼嗎？

I haven't, George, I have a list of all of the parts we're missing right now. I could call Mark, I guess, and see if he has some extra ones.

我沒有，喬治，我有一份我們現在缺少的所有零件的清單。我想我可以給馬克打電話，看看他有沒有多餘的。

But the -- no, I don't. I mean again, guys, look, I think this is a world we live in, right? We have the challenges. I think our guys have done a nice job through this. I think we will have a strong fourth quarter. It's not without some risk on a part popping up here and there, but it's -- I don't know how to explain the difference between the commentary with some of the high-end stuff versus where we are. But it's something we're going to manage our way through. It will be fine.

但是——不，我沒有。我的意思是，伙計們，看，我認為這是我們生活的世界，對吧？我們面臨挑戰。我認為我們的傢伙在這方面做得很好。我認為我們將有一個強勁的第四季度。在這里和那裡突然出現的部分並非沒有風險，但它 - 我不知道如何解釋帶有一些高端內容的評論與我們所處的位置之間的區別。但這是我們要設法解決的問題。沒事的。

Okay. And Frank, can you provide some comments on what you see for pension next year given the big changes we're seeing in DR and asset returns?

好的。弗蘭克，鑑於我們在 DR 和資產回報方面看到的巨大變化，您能否就您對明年養老金的看法發表一些評論？

Yes. We don't expect it to be a headwind. We're -- obviously, we've got a lot of work to do in the fourth quarter and calculating the numbers and everything, but it should not be a headwind for us.

是的。我們預計這不會是逆風。我們 - 顯然，我們在第四季度有很多工作要做，計算數字和一切，但這對我們來說不應該是逆風。

Okay. And then one last one. Scott, you've been saying that the delay in FLRAA has been a cost to you in terms of carrying all the people. Can you quantify at all how much of a cost it was to Bell in the quarter because the margin at Bell still look pretty good this quarter?

好的。然後是最後一個。斯科特，你一直在說，FLRAA 的延遲對你來說是一個成本，因為你需要運送所有的人。您能否量化一下本季度貝爾的成本是多少，因為本季度貝爾的利潤率看起來仍然不錯？

Yes, look, Bell had a very strong quarter on the commercial side. And I think we'll continue to see strong commercial business. And we talk a lot about Aviation. Obviously, you guys asked, but the commercial helicopter business is also seeing very robust demand, and those guys are performing well. And it's obviously offsetting the historical military programs, which continue to ramp down a little bit.

是的，看，貝爾在商業方面有一個非常強勁的季度。而且我認為我們將繼續看到強勁的商業業務。我們經常談論航空。顯然，你們問過，但商用直升機業務也看到了非常強勁的需求，而且這些人表現良好。這顯然抵消了歷史上的軍事計劃，這些計劃繼續略微下降。

But look, I think on the FLRAA, George, it's -- obviously, it was in our original guide. That's why we're certainly seeing lower absorption. We expect it to be kind of under contract at this stage of the game, but it's something we're managing our way through. And like I said, I think we can't quantify or wouldn't quantify exactly the number, but suffice to say that we can live within our guidance based on, I think, where we are and our expectations for the announcement towards the latter part of this year.

但是看，我認為在 FLRAA 上，喬治，它——顯然，它在我們的原始指南中。這就是為什麼我們肯定會看到較低的吸收率。我們預計它在遊戲的這個階段會處於合同狀態，但這是我們正在管理的事情。就像我說的那樣，我認為我們無法量化或不會準確量化這個數字，但我認為我們可以根據我們所處的位置以及我們對後者的公告的期望來生活在我們的指導範圍內今年的一部分。

And our next question comes from the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Scott, on Aviation, you mentioned pretty strong -- mentioned a pretty strong orders and incremental interest you're seeing from corporate buyers. And book-to-bill was pretty solid at 1.5x. So from your conversations with your customers and potential customers, what's the key emphasis for the incremental order? Is it replacement, capacity increase for new customers to biz jet and how sensitive are they from the financing environment?

斯科特，在航空方面，你提到了相當強勁的 - 提到了你從企業買家那裡看到的相當強勁的訂單和增加的興趣。帳單比非常穩定，為 1.5 倍。那麼，從您與客戶和潛在客戶的對話來看，增量訂單的重點是什麼？新客戶對商務噴氣機的替代、容量增加以及他們對融資環境的敏感程度如何？

Well, it's a bit of all of the above, Kristine. And so I mean, obviously, we have some corporate customers out there that in the quarter placed orders because they're going to replenish turn over their fleets of aircraft. As you know, the corporate -- they're used to sort of looking out in that 18 months, 2 years or so time frame, as they plan their fleet refreshes. So the lead times that are there right now aren't something that they're not accustomed to and that kind of fits in their plan. So we are seeing that activity. We are still seeing some new activity.

嗯，這是上面所有的一點，克里斯汀。所以我的意思是，很明顯，我們有一些公司客戶在本季度下訂單，因為他們將補充他們的飛機機隊。如你所知，公司——他們習慣於在 18 個月、2 年左右的時間框架內向外看，因為他們計劃更新他們的機隊。因此，現在的交貨時間並不是他們不習慣的東西，並且符合他們的計劃。所以我們看到了這種活動。我們仍然看到一些新的活動。

And again, we continue to see a lot of -- there are certainly new people who are coming in more than normal that are buying a whole aircraft. But we also see just the demand of new people coming into the market that are using either a fractional or charter operations. And so we continue to see strong demand from those customers as well. So it really is across the board, which is, I think, again, very healthy for the industry.

再一次，我們繼續看到很多——肯定有比平時更多的新人來購買整架飛機。但我們也看到了進入市場的新人的需求，他們使用了部分業務或包機業務。因此，我們也繼續看到這些客戶的強勁需求。所以它確實是全面的，我認為這對這個行業來說是非常健康的。

Thank you for the color. And maybe switching gears, Scott, in the past, your Sensor Fuzed Weapon exposure, albeit only support in the past few years and no longer production. It had limited the European owner of your stock. Now that you're completely out of the Sensor Fuzed Weapon business, and it looks like you're completely out of support, too. And you have the only electric aircraft certified for passenger use, it seems to me that the portfolio is more attractive on an ESG basis. So are you seeing any recognition of the portfolio shift, and are you seeing incremental interest from European asset managers and ESG investors? And how do you think of that evolution?

謝謝你的顏色。也許換檔，斯科特，在過去，你的傳感器引信武器曝光，雖然只是在過去的幾年裡支持，不再生產。它限制了您股票的歐洲所有者。現在您已經完全退出了傳感器引信武器業務，而且看起來您也完全失去了支持。而且您擁有唯一經認證供乘客使用的電動飛機，在我看來，該產品組合在 ESG 基礎上更具吸引力。那麼，您是否看到任何對投資組合轉變的認可，您是否看到歐洲資產管理公司和 ESG 投資者越來越感興趣？您如何看待這種演變？

Well, it's a good question, Kristine. And I don't know specifically those funds that have historically not wanted to invest in the company and large part because of the SFW exposure. And as you know, that doesn't exist anymore. So I think that's not an issue on the overall ESG front. Without a doubt, there you're going to see certain funds out there that are going to be more oriented towards companies they think are investing in that future in terms of particularly electric transportation.

嗯，這是個好問題，克里斯汀。而且我不知道那些歷史上不想投資該公司的基金，這在很大程度上是因為 SFW 的風險敞口。如您所知，這不再存在。所以我認為這不是整個 ESG 方面的問題。毫無疑問，您將在那裡看到某些基金將更加面向他們認為在特別是電動交通方面投資於未來的公司。

And I think we have a very good story. I mean obviously, aviation is an area we're investing -- and frankly, particularly as a result of the deal, Pipistrel, they are a leader in that field. And we're also very strong on the electric side in terms of our vehicle businesses, right? I mean we've pioneered over the years a lot of that electrification.

我認為我們有一個非常好的故事。我的意思很明顯，航空是我們正在投資的一個領域——坦率地說，特別是作為交易的結果，Pipistrel，他們是該領域的領導者。而且在汽車業務方面，我們在電動方面也非常強大，對吧？我的意思是，多年來，我們已經開創了很多電氣化的道路。

And frankly, that's spreading out across that business in a big way, including ground support equipment and turf care equipment. It's -- that trend is going to continue to happen. So I can't speak specifically to the European funds, but I absolutely and consciously, obviously on our part, we think we're engaging in strategies that will help make us more attractive to funds that have ESG criteria.

坦率地說，這在整個業務中得到了廣泛的推廣，包括地面支持設備和草坪護理設備。這是 - 這種趨勢將繼續發生。因此，我不能具體談談歐洲基金，但我絕對有意識地，顯然就我們而言，我們認為我們正在採取有助於使我們對具有 ESG 標準的基金更具吸引力的策略。

And our next question comes from the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

There have been a ton of focus on FLRAA for obvious reasons. But could you walk through some of the opportunities beyond FLRAA then the Navy is looking for some helicopters down the road as is the Air Force. You guys talked about it a bit at USA, but not everybody was there. So I was wondering, if you could kind of walk through some of those other opportunities that are beyond FLRAA?

由於顯而易見的原因，人們非常關注 FLRAA。但是，您能否了解 FLRAA 之外的一些機會，那麼海軍正在尋找一些直升機，就像空軍一樣。你們在美國談了一點，但不是每個人都在那裡。所以我想知道，您是否可以了解一些超出 FLRAA 的其他機會？

Sure. Absolutely, Ron. Look, I mean, you're right. We -- everybody asked a lot about FLRAA. We're obviously very interested in the outcome of FLRAA, but Bell is hardly a one-trick pony, right? I mean there's a lot of other stuff going on. I think when you think about the maritime strike and overall, there's active AoA activity going on right now in the in the Department of the Navy thinking about what they do with their future of aircraft replacement programs.

當然。當然，羅恩。看，我的意思是，你是對的。我們——每個人都問了很多關於 FLRAA 的問題。我們顯然對 FLRAA 的結果非常感興趣，但貝爾絕不是一匹小馬，對吧？我的意思是還有很多其他的事情正在發生。我認為，當您考慮海上打擊時，總體而言，海軍部目前正在進行積極的 AoA 活動，考慮他們如何處理未來的飛機更換計劃。

Obviously, we think that our offering, which is that tiltrotor space is very attractive to them. I mean, these are services that obviously today operate V-22s and they need aircraft and assets that can keep up with V-22. So it's -- I think we feel like the tiltrotor solution is a good answer in that space. These programs are relatively early on. They say they're doing their analysis of alternatives and that will lead to more acquisition activity here in the next couple 2, 3 years. So we're very close to those programs, obviously.

顯然，我們認為我們的產品，即傾轉旋翼空間對他們非常有吸引力。我的意思是，這些服務顯然在今天使用 V-22，他們需要能夠跟上 V-22 的飛機和資產。所以它 - 我認為我們覺得傾轉旋翼解決方案是該領域的一個很好的答案。這些計劃相對較早。他們說他們正在對替代品進行分析，這將在接下來的兩三年內導致更多的收購活動。因此，顯然，我們非常接近這些計劃。

The Air Force, as has been fairly public, is talking about what they want to do for frankly, higher speed VTOL, right? So even beyond the kinds of speeds that we see today in a V-22 or in V-280 class of aircraft. We're highly engaged with the Air Force on those sorts of programs. So I think there's no doubt that what we're seeing with the Army, and obviously, that's a huge opportunity to replace that sort of the Blackhawk class of aircraft that you will see similar programs in the Navy, Marine Corps and in the Air Force in one form or fashion, and our guys are highly engaged in those program opportunities.

空軍，正如已經公開的那樣，坦率地說，他們想要做的是更高速度的 VTOL，對吧？因此，甚至超出了我們今天在 V-22 或 V-280 類飛機上看到的那種速度。我們在這些項目上與空軍高度合作。所以我認為毫無疑問，我們在陸軍中看到的，顯然，這是一個巨大的機會來取代那種你會在海軍、海軍陸戰隊和空軍中看到類似計劃的黑鷹級飛機以一種形式或方式，我們的員工高度參與這些計劃機會。

Got it. And then maybe shifting gears back to Cessna, a bigger picture question. When you look at the portfolio of Cessna airplanes, is there any place that you think you need to do a refresh or not? And how are you thinking about new product development, given that the business is in a healthier place than it was just a couple of years ago?

知道了。然後也許將齒輪換回塞斯納，這是一個更大的問題。當您查看賽斯納飛機的產品組合時，您認為有哪些地方需要更新？鑑於該業務比幾年前更健康，您如何看待新產品開發？

Yes. Look, I think we have a very robust set of refresh programs. We've launched a couple of these Gen2, Gen1 mod programs. We have more of that in the works. We think it's really, really critical to be rolling those out on a fairly regular frequency. So we have a couple that are in the works right now that we haven't yet announced, but obviously the work is going on. On the clean-sheet front with the Denali program, which is still under development.

是的。看，我認為我們有一套非常強大的刷新程序。我們已經推出了幾個這樣的 Gen2、Gen1 模組程序。我們有更多的作品。我們認為以相當固定的頻率推出這些內容非常非常重要。所以我們現在有幾個正在進行中，我們還沒有宣布，但顯然工作正在進行中。在德納利計劃的零封前線，該計劃仍在開發中。

So I think if you look at both jet and turboprop, there's a robust level of activity. I mean I love our product line up right now. I think the longitude latitude, obviously, have been home runs in the market, the SkyCourier is just getting -- kind of getting to a rate in production with great demand. I think that's going to be a home run product. Denali will similarly, I think, be a great product for us. And the line is be sprinkled with a couple of these refresh programs here in the coming years.

因此，我認為，如果您同時查看噴氣式飛機和渦輪螺旋槳飛機，就會發現活動水平很高。我的意思是我現在喜歡我們的產品系列。我認為經度緯度顯然是市場上的本壘打，SkyCourier 剛剛達到 - 有點達到需求量很大的生產速度。我認為這將是一個本壘打產品。我認為，Denali 同樣會成為我們的出色產品。在接下來的幾年裡，這條線會出現一些這樣的更新程序。

And our next question comes from the line of David Strauss with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的大衛施特勞斯。

I just wanted to ask about the H1 and how that kind of rolls off from here and what sort of headwind we should be thinking about to Bell as that program runs off?

我只是想問一下 H1 以及這種情況是如何從這裡開始的，以及在該程序運行時我們應該考慮給貝爾帶來什麼樣的逆風？

Sure. Look, H1 is about to wrap up its program of record in terms of the U.S. sales. We have some FMS programs that are still under production, but those clearly will be ramping down here over the next couple of years. Service programs continue to run. But no question, David, that program will continue to ramp down here in the next couple of years.

當然。看，H1 即將結束其在美國銷售方面的記錄計劃。我們有一些 FMS 程序仍在生產中，但這些程序顯然會在未來幾年內逐漸減少。服務程序繼續運行。但毫無疑問，大衛，該計劃將在未來幾年內繼續在此減少。

And Scott, could you quantify how much in revenue in H1 currently accounts for?

斯科特，你能量化一下目前上半年的收入佔多少嗎？

No, we don't break out the individual programs, David, but look, obviously, our plan is largely based on the fact that you'll see a ramp-up in FLRAA program activity that will largely replace what we're seeing in the ramp down on the H1 program.

不，我們不會拆分單個項目，大衛，但是看，顯然，我們的計劃主要基於這樣一個事實，即您將看到 FLRAA 項目活動的增加，這將在很大程度上取代我們在H1計劃的斜坡下降。

Okay, Brad, that completes the call.

好的，布拉德，這完成了通話。

And ladies and gentlemen, this conference will be available for a replay after today at 11:00 a.m. Eastern through January 24, 2023, you may access the AT&T replay system at any time by dialing 1 (866) 207-1041 entering the access code 2659646. International parties may dial (402) 970-0847 and those numbers again are 1 (866) 207-1041 and 402-970-0847, again, entering the access code 2659646.

女士們，先生們，本次會議將於東部時間今天上午 11:00 至 2023 年 1 月 24 日之後重播，您可以隨時撥打 1 (866) 207-1041 輸入訪問代碼訪問 AT&T 重播系統2659646。國際方可以撥打 (402) 970-0847，這些號碼再次是 1 (866) 207-1041 和 402-970-0847，再次輸入訪問代碼 2659646。

That does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T conferencing service. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與和使用 AT&T 會議服務。您現在可以斷開連接。